Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

Radiative impact of a heavy dust storm over India and surrounding oceanic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kedia, Sumita; Kumar, Rajesh; Islam, Sahidul; Sathe, Yogesh; Kaginalkar, Akshara

2018-07-01

Efficient management of frequently occurring destructive dust storms requires an in-depth understanding of the extent of impacts of such events. Due to limited availability of observational data, it is difficult to understand/estimate the impact of dust aerosols on the Earth's radiation budget in detail. This study, applies a regional model, Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem), to investigate the impact of an intense dust storm that originated over the Arabian peninsula during 01-02 April 2015 and transported towards the Indian subcontinent by the westerly winds. Two identical numerical experiments are designed, each for 15 days, one with and another without dust aerosols, to estimate the impact of the dust storm over the Indian subcontinent and adjoining regions. WRF-Chem model reproduced the spatial, temporal as well as the vertical distribution of dust plume reasonably well. Model results show significant changes in aerosol optical, physical and radiative properties due to the dominance of coarse mode aerosols in the atmosphere during the dust storm. Analysis of vertical profiles of particulate matter (PM10) concentration reveals the presence of dust aerosols extending from the surface to altitudes as high as 3-4 km during the dust storm period. The dust storm induced a cooling effect at the surface via reduction in shortwave (SW) radiative flux. A substantial decrease in temperature is also seen at 850 hPa due to dust, indicating a significant impact of dust layer on the atmospheric temperature profile. Atmospheric heating due to dust aerosols in the SW region is found to be compensated up to a large extent by longwave (LW) cooling effect of dust. The net dust induced radiative perturbation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) over different regions is negative and varied from -2.49 to -0.34 Wm-2, while it is in the range of -0.62 to + 0.32 Wm-2 at the surface.

WRF-Chem Model Simulations of Arizona Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohebbi, A.; Chang, H. I.; Hondula, D.

2017-12-01

The online Weather Research and Forecasting model with coupled chemistry module (WRF-Chem) is applied to simulate the transport, deposition and emission of the dust aerosols in an intense dust outbreak event that took place on July 5th, 2011 over Arizona. Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), and University of Cologne (UoC) parameterization schemes for dust emission were evaluated. The model was found to simulate well the synoptic meteorological conditions also widely documented in previous studies. The chemistry module performance in reproducing the atmospheric desert dust load was evaluated using the horizontal field of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro (MODIS) radiometer Terra/Aqua and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) satellites employing standard Dark Target (DT) and Deep Blue (DB) algorithms. To assess the temporal variability of the dust storm, Particulate Matter mass concentration data (PM10 and PM2.5) from Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (AZDEQ) ground-based air quality stations were used. The promising performance of WRF-Chem indicate that the model is capable of simulating the right timing and loading of a dust event in the planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) which can be used to forecast approaching severe dust events and to communicate an effective early warning.

An extreme dust storm over the Arabian Peninsula in Spring 2015: the role of convective mixing and vortex stretching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauser, Seraphine; Pante, Gregor; Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

The Arabian Peninsula is one of the World's largest dust sources. Severe dust storms occur throughout the year dominated by synoptic-scale driven frontal systems in winter and spring and convective systems during summer and autumn. Dust storm frequency peaks in spring, when extra-tropical upper-level troughs associated with near-surface cold fronts regularly penetrate into the peninsula. In this study we investigate the dynamics of an extreme springtime dust event, which covered the entire Arabian Peninsula and the adjacent Indian Ocean in early April 2015. In addition to the more common trough/frontal characteristics, EUMETSAT's false-colour dust product shows a striking vortex-like structure during the initial state of the storm. Several SYNOP stations on the Arabian Peninsula report severe dust storms, rapid temperature drop, strong increase in wind speed up to 40 kn and zero visibility for several hours on 01 and 02 April. Remarkably also, 61 mm of rainfall are observed on 01 April at the station Arar in northern Saudi Arabia (annual average 52 mm), clearly indicating a convective contribution to this event. Some evidence for significant precipitation is also found in satellite products. Operational analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) show a distinct short-wave upper-level trough swiftly propagating across the region during this period, accompanied by high relative vorticity values of up to 10 times the planetary vorticity. This vorticity is associated with the trough's curvature, but also with the large cyclonic shear at the northern side of the subtropical jet. The passage of the upper-level disturbance is well timed to overpass the region of the Arabian Peninsula heat low around midday, where vorticity is thermally generated. Most likely the deep boundary layer facilitated the triggering of convection by the upper-level forcing. Ultimately, downward mixing of the high vorticity by convection plus vortex stretching cause exceptionally high vorticity near the surface, which initiated this extreme and unusual dust storm. Short-range ECMWF forecasts produce precipitation but not as extreme as measured at Arar. The model also generates strong near-surface winds, which are generally in good agreement with the SYNOP observations. Interestingly, however, the 10 m wind direction falls short to reflect the extreme cyclonic curvature evident in station observations, pointing to an underestimation of the vortex in the model. We hypothesise that the ECMWF model with its parameterised convection is unable to realistically represent the vertical mixing and vortex stretching. Numerical simulations on the convection permitting scale might improve forecasts of such events, but this is yet to be tested.

Surface Properties Associated With Dust Storm Plume's Point-Source Locations In The Border Region Of The US And Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleiweiss, M. P.; DuBois, D. W.; Flores, M. I.

2013-12-01

Dust storms in the border region of the Southwest US and Northern Mexico are a serious problem for air quality (PM10 exceedances), health (Valley Fever is pandemic in the region) and transportation (road closures and deadly traffic accidents). In order to better understand the phenomena, we are attempting to identify critical characteristics of dust storm sources so that, possibly, one can perform more accurate predictions of events and, thus, mitigate some of the deleterious effects. Besides the emission mechanisms for dust storm production that are tied to atmospheric dynamics, one must know those locations whose source characteristics can be tied to dust production and, therefore, identify locations where a dust storm is eminent under favorable atmospheric dynamics. During the past 13 years, we have observed, on satellite imagery, more than 500 dust events in the region and are in the process of identifying the source regions for the dust plumes that make up an event. Where satellite imagery exists with high spatial resolution (less than or equal to 250m), dust 'plumes' appear to be made up of individual and merged plumes that are emitted from a 'point source' (smaller than the resolution of the imagery). In particular, we have observed events from the ASTER sensor whose spatial resolution is 15m as well as Landsat whose spatial resolution is 30m. Tying these source locations to surface properties such as NDVI, albedo, and soil properties (percent sand, silt, clay, and gravel; soil moisture; etc.) will identify regions with enhanced capability to produce a dust storm. This, along with atmospheric dynamics, will allow the forecast of dust events. The analysis of 10 events from the period 2004-2013, for which we have identified 1124 individual plumes, will be presented.

Simulating the meteorology and PM10 concentrations in Arizona dust storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (Wrf-Chem).

PubMed

Hyde, Peter; Mahalov, Alex; Li, Jialun

2018-03-01

Nine dust storms in south-central Arizona were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) at 2 km resolution. The windblown dust emission algorithm was the Air Force Weather Agency model. In comparison with ground-based PM 10 observations, the model unevenly reproduces the dust-storm events. The model adequately estimates the location and timing of the events, but it is unable to precisely replicate the magnitude and timing of the elevated hourly concentrations of particles 10 µm and smaller ([PM 10 ]).Furthermore, the model underestimated [PM 10 ] in highly agricultural Pinal County because it underestimated surface wind speeds and because the model's erodible fractions of the land surface data were too coarse to effectively resolve the active and abandoned agricultural lands. In contrast, the model overestimated [PM 10 ] in western Arizona along the Colorado River because it generated daytime sea breezes (from the nearby Gulf of California) for which the surface-layer speeds were too strong. In Phoenix, AZ, the model's performance depended on the event, with both under- and overestimations partly due to incorrect representation of urban features. Sensitivity tests indicate that [PM 10 ] highly relies on meteorological forcing. Increasing the fraction of erodible surfaces in the Pinal County agricultural areas improved the simulation of [PM 10 ] in that region. Both 24-hr and 1-hr measured [PM 10 ] were, for the most part, and especially in Pinal County, extremely elevated, with the former exceeding the health standard by as much as 10-fold and the latter exceeding health-based guidelines by as much as 70-fold. Monsoonal thunderstorms not only produce elevated [PM 10 ], but also cause urban flash floods and disrupt water resource deliveries. Given the severity and frequency of these dust storms, and conceding that the modeling system applied in this work did not produce the desired agreement between simulations and observations, additional research in both the windblown dust emissions model and the weather research/physicochemical model is called for. While many dust storms can be considered to be natural, in semi-arid climates such storms often have an anthropogenic component in their sources of dust. Applying the natural, exceptional events policy to these storms with strong signatures of anthropogenic sources would appear not only to be misguided but also to stifle genuine regulatory efforts at remediation. Those dust storms that have resulted, in part, from passage over abandoned farm land should no longer be considered "natural"; policymakers and lawmakers need to compel the owners of such land to reduce its potential for windblown dust.

Three-dimensional variational assimilation of MODIS aerosol optical depth: Implementation and application to a dust storm over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhiquan; Liu, Quanhua; Lin, Hui-Chuan; Schwartz, Craig S.; Lee, Yen-Huei; Wang, Tijian

2011-12-01

Assimilation of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) total aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval products (at 550 nm wavelength) from both Terra and Aqua satellites have been developed within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. This newly developed algorithm allows, in a one-step procedure, the analysis of 3-D mass concentration of 14 aerosol variables from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) module. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) was extended to calculate AOD using GOCART aerosol variables as input. Both the AOD forward model and corresponding Jacobian model were developed within the CRTM and used in the 3DVAR minimization algorithm to compute the AOD cost function and its gradient with respect to 3-D aerosol mass concentration. The impact of MODIS AOD data assimilation was demonstrated by application to a dust storm from 17 to 24 March 2010 over East Asia. The aerosol analyses initialized Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model forecasts. Results indicate that assimilating MODIS AOD substantially improves aerosol analyses and subsequent forecasts when compared to MODIS AOD, independent AOD observations from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument, and surface PM10 (particulate matter with diameters less than 10 μm) observations. The newly developed AOD data assimilation system can serve as a tool to improve simulations of dust storms and general air quality analyses and forecasts.

PREFACE: WMO/GEO Expert Meeting On An International Sand And Dust Storm Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.

2009-03-01

This volume of IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science presents a selection of papers that were given at the WMO/GEO Expert Meeting on an International Sand and Dust Storm Warning System hosted by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputación in Barcelona (Spain) on 7-9 November 2007 (http://www.bsc.es/wmo). A sand and dust storm (SDS) is a meteorological phenomenon common in arid and semi-arid regions and arises when a gust front passes or when the wind force exceeds the threshold value where loose sand and dust are removed from the dry surface. After aeolian uptake, SDS reduce visibility to a few meters in and near source regions, and dust plumes are transported over distances as long as thousands of kilometres. Aeolian dust is unique among aerosol phenomena: (1) with the possible exception of sea-salt aerosol, it is globally the most abundant of all aerosol species, (2) it appears as the dominating component of atmospheric aerosol over large areas of the Earth, (3) it represents a serious hazard for life, health, property, environment and economy (occasionally reaching the grade of disaster or catastrophic event) and (4) its influence, impacts, complex interactions and feedbacks within the Earth System span a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. From a political and societal point of view, the concern for SDS and the need for international cooperation were reflected after a survey conducted in 2005 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in which more than forty WMO Member countries expressed their interest for creating or improving capacities for SDS warning advisory and assessment. In this context, recent major advances in research - including, for example, the development and implementation of advanced observing systems, the theoretical understanding of the mechanisms responsible for sand and dust storm generation and the development of global and regional dust models - represent the basis for developing applications focusing on societal benefit and risk reduction. However, at present there are interdisciplinary research challenges to overwhelm current uncertainties in order to reach full potential. Furthermore, the community of practice for SDS observations, forecasts and analyses is mainly scientifically based and rather disconnected from potential users. This requires the development of interfaces with operational communities at international and national levels, strongly focusing on the needs of people and factors at risk. The WMO has taken the lead with international partners to develop and implement a Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS). The history of the WMO SDS-WAS development is as follows. On 12-14 September 2004, an International Symposium on Sand and Dust Storms was held in Beijing at the China Meteorological Agency followed by a WMO Experts Workshop on Sand and Dust Storms. The recommendations of that workshop led to a proposal to create a WMO Sand and Dust Storm Project coordinated jointly with the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). This was approved by the steering body of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) in 2005. Responding to a WMO survey conducted in 2005, more than forty WMO Member countries expressed interest in participating in activities to improve capacities for more reliable sand and dust storm monitoring, forecasting and assessment. On 31 October to 1 November 2006 in Shanghai, the steering committee of the Sand and Dust Storm Project proposed the development and implementation of a Sand and Dust Storm Warning, Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS). The WMO Secretariat in Geneva formed an ad-hoc Internal Group on SDS-WAS consisting of scientific officers representing WMO research, observations, operational prediction, service delivery and applications programmes such as aviation and agriculture. In May 2007, the 14th WMO Congress endorsed the launching of the SDS-WAS. It also welcomed the strong support of Spain to host a regional centre for the European/African/Middle East node of SDS-WAS and to play a lead role in implementation. In August 2007, the Korean Meteorological Administration hosted the 2nd International Workshop on Sand and Dust Storms highlighting Korean SDS-WAS activities as well as those of Asian regional partners. From 7-9 November 2007, Spain hosted the WMO/GEO Expert Meeting on SDS-WAS at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. This consultation meeting brought 100 international experts together from research, observation, forecasting and user countries especially in Africa and the Middle East to discuss the way forward in SDS-WAS implementation. The general objective of the WMO/GEO Expert Meeting on an International Sand and Dust Storm Warning System was to discuss and recommend actions needed to develop a global routine SDS-WAS based on integrating numerical SDS prediction and observing systems, and on establishing effective cooperation between data producers and user communities in order to provide SDS-WAS products capable of contributing to the reduction of risks from SDS. The specific objectives were: to identify, present and suggest future real-time observations for forecast verification and dust surveillance: satellite, ground-based remote sensing (passive and active) and in-situ monitoring to present ongoing forecasting activities to discuss and identify user needs: health, air quality, air transport operations, ocean, and others to identify and discuss dust research issues relevant for operational forecast applications to present the concept of SDS-WAS and Regional Centers The meeting was organised around invited presentations and discussions on observations, modelling and users of the SDS-WAS. C Pérez and J M Baldasano Editors INTERNATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE José María Baldasano (Chairman) - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain Emilio Cuevas - Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain Leonard A Barrie - World Meteorological Organisation, Switzerland Young J Kim - Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Korea Menas Kafatos - George Mason University, USA Xiaoye Zhang - Chinese Meteorology Administration, China Slobodan Nickovic - World Meteorological Organisation, Switzerland Carlos Pérez - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain William A Sprigg - University of Arizona, USA Stéphane Alfaro - Université de Paris Val de Marne, France Ina Tegen - Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Germany Mohamed Mahmoud Eissa - Under-secretary of State for Researches, Egypt Sunling Gong - Environment Canada, Canada Emily Firth - GEO Secretariat, Switzerland LOCAL ORGANISING COMMITTEE José María Baldasano - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain Carlos Pérez - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain Renata Giménez - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain Emilio Cuevas - Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain Slobodan Nickovic - World Meteorological Organisation, Switzerland J M Marcos - Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain Manuel Palomares - Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Spain Xavier Querol - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Spain Conference photograph

Numerical study of Asian dust transport during the springtime of 2001 simulated with the Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uno, Itsushi; Satake, Shinsuke; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Tang, Youhua; Wang, Zifa; Takemura, Toshihiko; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Shimizu, Atsushi; Murayama, Toshiyuki; Cahill, Thomas A.; Cliff, Steven; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Ohta, Sachio; Quinn, Patricia K.; Bates, Timothy S.

2004-10-01

The regional-scale aerosol transport model Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) is used for analysis of large-scale dust phenomena during the Asian Pacific Regional Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) intensive observation. Dust modeling results are examined with the surface weather reports, satellite-derived dust index (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI)), Mie-scattering lidar observation, and surface aerosol observations. The CFORS dust results are shown to accurately reproduce many of the important observed features. Model analysis shows that the simulated dust vertical loading correlates well with TOMS AI and that the dust loading is transported with the meandering of the synoptic-scale temperature field at the 500-hPa level. Quantitative examination of aerosol optical depth shows that model predictions are within 20% difference of the lidar observations for the major dust episodes. The structure of the ACE-Asia Perfect Dust Storm, which occurred in early April, is clarified with the help of the CFORS model analysis. This storm consisted of two boundary layer components and one elevated dust (>6-km height) feature (resulting from the movement of two large low-pressure systems). Time variation of the CFORS dust fields shows the correct onset timing of the elevated dust for each observation site, but the model results tend to overpredict dust concentrations at lower latitude sites. The horizontal transport flux at 130°E longitude is examined, and the overall dust transport flux at 130°E during March-April is evaluated to be 55 Tg.

Incorporating the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) Into a Regional Air Quality Modeling System for the Pacific Northwest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the Pacific Northwest, wind storms intermittently cause massive dust events that reduce visibility along roadways and jeopardize health as a result of extremely high concentrations of PM10 (particulate matter less than or equal to 10µm in diameter). An early warning dust forecast system is needed...

Regional dust storm modeling for health services: The case of valley fever

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprigg, William A.; Nickovic, Slobodan; Galgiani, John N.; Pejanovic, Goran; Petkovic, Slavko; Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Vukovic, Ana; Dacic, Milan; DiBiase, Scott; Prasad, Anup; El-Askary, Hesham

2014-09-01

On 5 July 2011, a massive dust storm struck Phoenix, Arizona (USA), raising concerns for increased cases of valley fever (coccidioidomycosis, or, cocci). A quasi-operational experimental airborne dust forecast system predicted the event and provides model output for continuing analysis in collaboration with public health and air quality communities. An objective of this collaboration was to see if a signal in cases of valley fever in the region could be detected and traced to the storm - an American haboob. To better understand the atmospheric life cycle of cocci spores, the DREAM dust model (also herein, NMME-DREAM) was modified to simulate spore emission, transport and deposition. Inexact knowledge of where cocci-causing fungus grows, the low resolution of cocci surveillance and an overall active period for significant dust events complicate analysis of the effect of the 5 July 2011 storm. In the larger context of monthly to annual disease surveillance, valley fever statistics, when compared against PM10 observation networks and modeled airborne dust concentrations, may reveal a likely cause and effect. Details provided by models and satellites fill time and space voids in conventional approaches to air quality and disease surveillance, leading to land-atmosphere modeling and remote sensing that clearly mark a path to advance valley fever epidemiology, surveillance and risk avoidance.

Sensitivity of WRF-chem predictions to dust source function specification in West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabavi, Seyed Omid; Haimberger, Leopold; Samimi, Cyrus

2017-02-01

Dust storms tend to form in sparsely populated areas covered by only few observations. Dust source maps, known as source functions, are used in dust models to allocate a certain potential of dust release to each place. Recent research showed that the well known Ginoux source function (GSF), currently used in Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-chem), exhibits large errors over some regions in West Asia, particularly near the IRAQ/Syrian border. This study aims to improve the specification of this critical part of dust forecasts. A new source function based on multi-year analysis of satellite observations, called West Asia source function (WASF), is therefore proposed to raise the quality of WRF-chem predictions in the region. WASF has been implemented in three dust schemes of WRF-chem. Remotely sensed and ground-based observations have been used to verify the horizontal and vertical extent and location of simulated dust clouds. Results indicate that WRF-chem performance is significantly improved in many areas after the implementation of WASF. The modified runs (long term simulations over the summers 2008-2012, using nudging) have yielded an average increase of Spearman correlation between observed and forecast aerosol optical thickness by 12-16 percent points compared to control runs with standard source functions. They even outperform MACC and DREAM dust simulations over many dust source regions. However, the quality of the forecasts decreased with distance from sources, probably due to deficiencies in the transport and deposition characteristics of the forecast model in these areas.

Forecasters Handbook for the Middle East/Arabian Sea.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-01

much of the Northeast Monsoon. j. Dust storms are infrequent during the NE Monsoon season except in the northern Red Sea where vigorous extratropical ... storm 3-30 affecting the Gulf of Aden and the southern Red Sea on June 26, 1979. 3-12 Isopleths of mean pressure differences (mb) between 3-38 strong...areas but increases the wind stress effect known as "water pileup" (analogous to " storm surge" along open coasts). 2.4 Monsoon Regimes A set of criteria

The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

2015-12-15

As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of synoptic patterns causing dust outbreaks that affect the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermida, L.; Merino, A.; Sánchez, J. L.; Fernández-González, S.; García-Ortega, E.; López, L.

2018-01-01

Dust storms pose serious weather hazards in arid and semiarid regions of the earth. Understanding the main synoptic conditions that give rise to dust outbreaks is important for issuing forecasts and warnings to the public in cases of severe storms. The aim of the present study is to determine synoptic patterns that are associated with or even favor dust outbreaks over the Arabian Peninsula. In this respect, red-green-blue dust composite images from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are used to detect dust outbreaks affecting the Arabian Peninsula, with possible influences in southwestern Asia and northeastern Africa, between 2005 and 2013. The Meteosat imagery yielded a sample of 95 dust storm days. Meteorological fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of wind fields at 10 m and 250 hPa, mean sea level pressure, and geopotential heights at 850 and 500 hPa were obtained for the dust storm days. Using principal component analysis in T-mode and non-hierarchical k-means clustering, we obtained four major atmospheric circulation patterns associated with dust outbreaks during the study days. Cluster 4 had the largest number of days with dust events, which were constrained to summer, and cluster 3 had the fewest. In clusters 1, 2 and 3, the jet stream favored the entry of a low-pressure area or trough that varied in location between the three clusters. Their most northerly location was found in cluster 4, along with an extensive low-pressure area supporting strong winds over the Arabian Peninsula. The spatial distribution of aerosol optical depth for each cluster obtained was characterized using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data. Then, using METAR stations, clusters were also characterized in terms of frequency and visibility.

Re-examination of the I-5 dust storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Michael L.; Vellore, Ramesh K.; Lewis, John M.; Underwood, S. Jeffrey; Pauley, Patricia M.; Martin, Jonathan E.; Krishnan, R.

2013-01-01

The infamous dust storm over the thanksgiving holiday of 1991 that led to loss of life from numerous automobile accidents on Interstate 5 (I-5) has been re-examined. Pauley et al. (1996) conducted an earlier investigation of this dust storm following the tenets of Danielsen's paradigm—a paradigm that links the tropopause fold phenomenon and a balanced thermally indirect circulation about the upper level jet stream. However, a cursory examination of mesoscale structures in the storm from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) indicated evidence of a low-level unbalanced thermally direct circulation that demanded further investigation using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. Principal results from the present study follow: (1) Although the model simulation showed evidence of a weak indirect circulation in the upper troposphere in support of the Danielsen's paradigm, the dynamic control of the storm stemmed from the lower tropospheric mesoscale response to geostrophic imbalance. (2) A lower tropospheric direct circulation led to mass/temperature adjustments that were confirmed by upper air observations at locations in proximity to the accident site, and (3) boundary layer deepening and destabilization due to these mesoscale processes pinpointed the timing and location of the dust storm. Although the present study does not underestimate the value of analyses that focus on the larger/synoptic scales of motion, it does bring to light the value of investigation that makes use of the mesoscale resources in order to clarify synoptic-mesoscale interactions.

Numerical simulation of "an American haboob"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vukovic, A.; Vujadinovic, M.; Pejanovic, G.; Andric, J.; Kumjian, M. R.; Djurdjevic, V.; Dacic, M.; Prasad, A. K.; El-Askary, H. M.; Paris, B. C.; Petkovic, S.; Nickovic, S.; Sprigg, W. A.

2014-04-01

A dust storm of fearful proportions hit Phoenix in the early evening hours of 5 July 2011. This storm, an American haboob, was predicted hours in advance because numerical, land-atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events have improved greatly over the past decade. High-resolution numerical models are required for accurate simulation of the small scales of the haboob process, with high velocity surface winds produced by strong convection and severe downbursts. Dust productive areas in this region consist mainly of agricultural fields, with soil surfaces disturbed by plowing and tracks of land in the high Sonoran Desert laid barren by ongoing draught. Model simulation of the 5 July 2011 dust storm uses the coupled atmospheric-dust model NMME-DREAM (Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model on E grid, Janjic et al., 2001; Dust REgional Atmospheric Model, Nickovic et al., 2001; Pérez et al., 2006) with 4 km horizontal resolution. A mask of the potentially dust productive regions is obtained from the land cover and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The scope of this paper is validation of the dust model performance, and not use of the model as a tool to investigate mechanisms related to the storm. Results demonstrate the potential technical capacity and availability of the relevant data to build an operational system for dust storm forecasting as a part of a warning system. Model results are compared with radar and other satellite-based images and surface meteorological and PM10 observations. The atmospheric model successfully hindcasted the position of the front in space and time, with about 1 h late arrival in Phoenix. The dust model predicted the rapid uptake of dust and high values of dust concentration in the ensuing storm. South of Phoenix, over the closest source regions (~25 km), the model PM10 surface dust concentration reached ~2500 μg m-3, but underestimated the values measured by the PM10 stations within the city. Model results are also validated by the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), employing deep blue (DB) algorithms for aerosol loadings. Model validation included Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), equipped with the lidar instrument, to disclose the vertical structure of dust aerosols as well as aerosol subtypes. Promising results encourage further research and application of high-resolution modeling and satellite-based remote sensing to warn of approaching severe dust events and reduce risks for safety and health.

Modeling the Transport and Radiative Forcing of Taklimakan Dust over the Tibetan Plateau: A case study in the summer of 2006

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Siyu; Huang, J.; Zhao, Chun

2013-01-30

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate an intense dust storm event during 26 to 30 July 2006 that originated over the Taklimakan Desert (TD) and transported to the northern slope of Tibetan Plateau (TP). The dust storm is initiated by the approach of a strong cold frontal system over the TD. In summer, the meridional transport of TD dust to the TP is favored by the thermal effect of the TP and the weakening of the East Asian westerly winds. During this dust storm, the transport of TD dust over the TP ismore » further enhanced by the passage of the cold front. As a result, TD dust breaks through the planetary boundary layer and extends to the upper troposphere over the northern TP. TD dust flux arrived at the TP with a value of 6.6 Gg/day in this 5 day event but decays quickly during the southward migration over the TP due to dry deposition. The simulations show that TD dust cools the atmosphere near the surface and heats the atmosphere above with a maximum heating rate of 0.11 K day-1 at ~7 km over the TP. The event-averaged net radiative forcings of TD dust over the TP are -3.97, 1.61, and -5.58 Wm-2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), in the atmosphere, and at the surface, respectively. The promising performance of WRF-Chem in simulating dust and its radiative forcing provides confidence for use in further investigation of climatic impact of TD dust over the TP.« less

Effect of ecological restoration programs on dust concentrations in the North China Plain: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, Xin; Tie, Xuexi; Li, Guohui; Cao, Junji; Feng, Tian; Zhao, Shuyu; Xing, Li; An, Zhisheng

2018-05-01

In recent decades, the Chinese government has made a great effort in initiating large-scale ecological restoration programs (ERPs) to reduce the dust concentrations in China, especially for dust storm episodes. Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product, the ERP-induced land cover changes are quantitatively evaluated in this study. Two obvious vegetation protective barriers arise throughout China from the southwest to the northeast, which are well known as the Green Great Wall (GGW). Both the grass GGW and forest GGW are located between the dust source region (DSR) and the densely populated North China Plain (NCP). To assess the effect of ERPs on dust concentrations, a regional transport/dust model (WRF-DUST, Weather Research and Forecast model with dust) is applied to investigate the evolution of dust plumes during a strong dust storm episode from 2 to 8 March 2016. The WRF-DUST model generally performs reasonably well in reproducing the temporal variations and spatial distributions of near-surface [PMC] (mass concentration of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 and 10 µm) during the dust storm event. Sensitivity experiments have indicated that the ERP-induced GGWs help to reduce the dust concentration in the NCP, especially in BTH (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei). When the dust storm is transported from the upwind DSR to the downwind NCP, the [PMC] reduction ranges from -5 to -15 % in the NCP, with a maximum reduction of -12.4 % (-19.2 µg m-3) in BTH and -7.6 % (-10.1 µg m-3) in the NCP. We find the dust plumes move up to the upper atmosphere and are transported from the upwind DSR to the downwind NCP, accompanied by dust decrease. During the episode, the forest GGW is nonsignificant in dust concentration control because it is of benefit for dry deposition and not for emission. Conversely, the grass GGW is beneficial in controlling dust erosion and is the dominant reason for [PMC] decrease in the NCP. Because the air pollution is severe in eastern China, especially in the NCP, and the contribution of dust episodes is significant, the reduction of dust concentrations will have important effects on severe air pollution. This study illustrates the considerable contribution of ERPs to the control of air pollution in China, especially in springtime.

Forecasting the Northern African Dust Outbreak Towards Europe in April 2011: A Model Intercomparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.

2016-01-01

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 hours using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

DOE PAGES

Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; ...

2016-04-21

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

Investigations of Desert Dust and Smoke in the North Atlantic in Support of the TOMS Instrument

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toon, Owen B.

2005-01-01

During the initial period of the work we concentrated on Saharan dust storms and published a sequence of papers (Colarco et a1 2002,2003a,b, Toon, 2004). The U.S. Air Force liked the dust model so well that they appropriated it for operational dust storm forecasting (Barnum et al., 2004). The Air Force has used it for about 5 yrs in the Middle East where dust storms cause significant operational problems. The student working on this project, Peter Colarco, has graduated and is now a civil servant at Goddard where he continues to interact with the TOMS team. This work helped constrain the optical properties of dust at TOMS wavelengths, which is useful for climate simulations and for TOMS retrievals of dust properties such as optical depth. We also used TOMS data to constrain the sources of dust in Africa and the Middle East, to determine the actual paths taken by Saharan dust storms, to learn more about the mechanics of variations in the optical depths, and to learn more about the mechanisms controlling the altitudes of the dust. During the last two years we have been working on smoke from fires. Black carbon aerosols are one of the leading factors in radiative forcing. The US Climate Change Science Program calls this area out for specific study. It has been suggested by Jim Hansen, and Mark Jacobsen among others, that by controlling emissions of black carbon we might reduce greenhouse radiative forcing in a relatively painless manner. However, we need a greatly improved understanding of the amount of black carbon in the atmosphere, where it is located, where it comes from, how it is mixed with other particles, what its actual optical properties are, and how it evolves. In order to learn about these issues we are using a numerical model of smoke. We have applied this model to the SAFARI field program data, and used the TOMS satellite observations in that period (Sept. 2000). Our goal is to constrain source function estimates for black carbon, and smoke optical properties.

Dust Propagation and Radiation In the Presence of a Low-level Jet in Central China on March 17, 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, B. K.; Chen, S. H.

2014-12-01

Suspended dust in the air can directly change the energy budget in the atmosphere and at the surface through scattering and absorption of radiation. Thus, dust can potentially modify the development of weather systems. To explore the dust-radiation effects on weather systems, a dust model was developed based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The calculations of dust processes in the WRF dust model include emission, advection, boundary layer mixing, cumulus mixing, dust-radiation interaction, wet scavenging, and sedimentation. Due to a high vertical spatial resolution near the surface a time splitting method was applied to the calculation of dust sedimentation to relax the numerical time step. The "Hexi Corridor" is the historical name given to a string of oases along the northern slope of the Tibetan Plateau that formed a relatively easy transportation route between eastern China and central Asia. As trade developed over the centuries, this route became known as the Silk Road. This corridor also marks the transition from the relatively flat Gobi desert area in northern China to the elevated mountains of the Tibetan Plateau. These mountains present a southern barrier to the paths of dust storms that develop during spring outbreaks of the Mongolian Cyclone. In March of 2010, a series of dust storms developed in the Gobi Desert north of the Hexi Corridor that transported massive amounts of dust eastward to central and northeastern China, Korea and Japan. On March 17 during this event, a low-level jet developed along the northern perimeter of the Plateau, in alignment with upper level winds and the Hexi Corridor. Over the course of the day, a well-defined short-duration dust plume was emitted in the southern Gobi desert area and was transported over 1300 km in a southeast direction, over the Loess Plateau and into the Gansu Province. In this study, the interactions of synoptic conditions with regional topography that led to the development of the low-level jet are evaluated. A dust model based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model V3.2.1 is used to investigate the interaction of dust and radiation on air temperatures in and around the plume, dust emission and transport, and the resulting regional radiative forcing in the presence of the low-level jet.

Geomorphic and land cover identification of dust sources in the eastern Great Basin of Utah, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahnenberger, Maura; Nicoll, Kathleen

2014-01-01

This study identifies anthropogenically disturbed areas and barren playa surfaces as the two primary dust source types that repeatedly contribute to dust storm events in the eastern Great Basin of western Utah, U.S.A. This semi-arid desert region is an important contributor to dust production in North America, with this study being the first to specifically identify and characterize regional dust sources. From 2004 to 2010, a total of 51 dust event days (DEDs) affected the air quality in Salt Lake City, UT. MODIS satellite imagery during 16 of these DEDs was analyzed to identify dust plumes, and assess the characteristics of dust source areas. A total of 168 plumes were identified, and showed mobilization of dust from Quaternary deposits located within the Bonneville Basin. This analysis identifies 4 major and 5 secondary source areas for dust in this region, which produce dust primarily during the spring and fall months and during moderate or greater drought conditions, with a Palmer Drought Index (PDI) of - 2 or less. The largest number of observed dust plumes (~ 60% of all plumes) originated from playas (ephemeral lakes) and are classified as barren land cover with a silty clay soil sediment surface. Playa surfaces in this region undergo numerous recurrent anthropogenic disturbances, including military operations and anthropogenic water withdrawal. Anthropogenic disturbance is necessary to produce dust from the vegetated landscape in the eastern Great Basin, as evidenced by the new dust source active from 2008 to 2010 in the area burned by the 2007 Milford Flat Fire; this fire was the largest in Utah's history due to extensive cover of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) along with drought conditions. However, dust mobilization from the Milford Flat Burned Area was limited to regions that had been significantly disturbed by post-fire land management techniques that consisted of seeding, followed by chaining or tilling of the soil. Dust storms in the eastern Great Basin negatively impact air quality and transportation in the populated regions of Utah; this study details an improved forecasting protocol for dust storm events that will benefit transportation planning and improve public health.

Effect of Wind Speed and Relative Humidity on Atmospheric Dust Concentrations in Semi-Arid Climates

PubMed Central

Csavina, Janae; Field, Jason; Félix, Omar; Corral-Avitia, Alba Y.; Sáez, A. Eduardo; Betterton, Eric A.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric particulate have deleterious impacts on human health. Predicting dust and aerosol emission and transport would be helpful to reduce harmful impacts but, despite numerous studies, prediction of dust events and contaminant transport in dust remains challenging. In this work, we show that relative humidity and wind speed are both determinants in atmospheric dust concentration. Observations of atmospheric dust concentrations in Green Valley, AZ, USA, and Juárez, Chihuahua, México, show that PM10 concentrations are not directly correlated with wind speed or relative humidity separately. However, selecting the data for high wind speeds (> 4 m/s at 10 m elevation), a definite trend is observed between dust concentration and relative humidity: dust concentration increases with relative humidity, reaching a maximum around 25% and it subsequently decreases with relative humidity. Models for dust storm forecasting may be improved by utilizing atmospheric humidity and wind speed as main drivers for dust generation and transport. PMID:24769193

Impact of improved soil climatology and intialization on WRF-chem dust simulations over West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omid Nabavi, Seyed; Haimberger, Leopold; Samimi, Cyrus

2016-04-01

Meteorological forecast models such as WRF-chem are designed to forecast not only standard atmospheric parameters but also aerosol, particularly mineral dust concentrations. It has therefore become an important tool for the prediction of dust storms in West Asia where dust storms have the considerable impact on living conditions. However, verification of forecasts against satellite data indicates only moderate skill in prediction of such events. Earlier studies have already indicated that the erosion factor, land use classification, soil moisture, and temperature initializations play a critical role in the accuracy of WRF-chem dust simulations. In the standard setting the erosion factor and land use classification are based on topographic variations and post-processed images of the advanced very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) during the period April 1992-March 1993. Furthermore, WRF-chem is normally initialized by the soil moisture and temperature of Final Analysis (FNL) model on 1.0x1.0 degree grids. In this study, we have changed boundary initial conditions so that they better represent current changing environmental conditions. To do so, land use (only bare soil class) and the erosion factor were both modified using information from MODIS deep blue AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth). In this method, bare soils are where the relative frequency of dust occurrence (deep blue AOD > 0.5) is more than one-third of a given month. Subsequently, the erosion factor, limited within the bare soil class, is determined by the monthly frequency of dust occurrence ranging from 0.3 to 1. It is worth to mention, that 50 percent of calculated erosion factor is afterward assigned to sand class while silt and clay classes each gain 25 percent of it. Soil moisture and temperature from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) were utilized to provide these initializations in higher resolution of 0.25 degree than in the standard setting. Modified and control simulations were conducted for the summertime of 2008-2012 and verified by satellite data (MODIS deep blue AOD, TOMs Aerosol Index and MISR AOD 550nm) and two well-known modeling systems of atmospheric composition (MACC and DREAM). All comparisons show a significant improvement in WRF-chem dust simulations after implementing the modifications. In comparison to the control run, the modified run bears an average increase of spearman correlation of 17-20 percent points when it is compared with satellite data. Our runs with modified WRF-chem even outperform MACC and DREAM dust simulations for the region.

Influence of Asian dust storms on air quality in Taiwan.

PubMed

Liu, Chung-Ming; Young, Chea-Yuan; Lee, Yen-Chih

2006-09-15

In each year, dust storms triggered by cold air masses passing through northern China and Mongolia enhance the PM10 concentration over Taiwan region during winter and spring. On average, there are four to five dust events and 6.1 dust days in a year in Taiwan. Each event lasts for 1 day or even longer. A procedure to identify a dust event is rationalized and exercised on data collected during 1994-2005. Also, a ranking method named as the dust intensity rank (DIR) is developed to distinguish the intensity of each event affecting the local air quality. About 86% of dust days belong to ranks 1 and 2. In general, poorer air quality is associated with higher ranks. Ranks 4 and 5 correspond to a PSI (Pollution Standard Index) larger than 100. Linking DIR with the popular PSI is useful for both the public and the official forecasting system. It is also useful for inter-comparison between dust influences on air quality at different downstream regions in Taiwan. Composite analyses of the temporal and spatial variation of the hourly PM10 level indicate that dust particles usually arrive 12 h before the time of the peak PM10 concentration and last for 36 h at northern Taiwan, while the time of the peak concentration at eastern or western Taiwan, due to the evolution of the synoptic weather system, is about 3-12 h later. It is noted that the increase of PM10 level at the western side of Taiwan results from a mixture of upstream Asian dust inputs and local pollutants.

Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms.

PubMed

Fan, Bihang; Guo, Li; Li, Ning; Chen, Jin; Lin, Henry; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Miaogen; Rao, Yuhan; Wang, Cong; Ma, Lei

2014-10-24

The observed decline of spring dust storms in Northeast Asia since the 1950s has been attributed to surface wind stilling. However, spring vegetation growth could also restrain dust storms through accumulating aboveground biomass and increasing surface roughness. To investigate the impacts of vegetation spring growth on dust storms, we examine the relationships between recorded spring dust storm outbreaks and satellite-derived vegetation green-up date in Inner Mongolia, Northern China from 1982 to 2008. We find a significant dampening effect of advanced vegetation growth on spring dust storms (r = 0.49, p = 0.01), with a one-day earlier green-up date corresponding to a decrease in annual spring dust storm outbreaks by 3%. Moreover, the higher correlation (r = 0.55, p < 0.01) between green-up date and dust storm outbreak ratio (the ratio of dust storm outbreaks to times of strong wind events) indicates that such effect is independent of changes in surface wind. Spatially, a negative correlation is detected between areas with advanced green-up dates and regional annual spring dust storms (r = -0.49, p = 0.01). This new insight is valuable for understanding dust storms dynamics under the changing climate. Our findings suggest that dust storms in Inner Mongolia will be further mitigated by the projected earlier vegetation green-up in the warming world.

A Peek into a Cul-De-Sac and a Mews of Martian Dust Storm Activity: Western Hellas and Syria-Claritas Fossae During Mars Year 29

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heavens, N. G.

2016-12-01

Western Hellas Planitia (WHP) and the region encompassed by Syria Planum and Claritas Fossae are the main centers of textured dust storm activity in Mars's southern low to mid-latitudes. (Texture in this context refers to distinct fine structure at the cloud tops indicative of active lifting.) WHP is a well-known initiation zone for regional and global dust storm activity and often the end point of the Utopia "flushing storm" track. Syria-Claritas Fossae (SCF), too, can be a lifting center in global dust storm activity. Indeed, SCF and the area to its west was the region most denuded of dust by the Mars Year (MY) 25 global dust storm, perhaps suggesting that SCF contained the principal lifting center of the storm. Thus, if the Acidalia and Utopia storm tracks are Mars's dust storm alleys, through which dust storms pass quickly again and again; WHP might be a cul-de-sac and SCF something like a mews, where dust storm activity can enter more or less easily but may not as easily leave. In this presentation, I will focus on dust storm activity in these areas in a typical non-global dust storm year, MY 29. Synthesizing visible imagery by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) on board Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) also on board MRO, I will consider the climatology, morphology, texture, and vertical structure of dust storm activity in these areas in order to infer their governing dynamics. This investigation has two aims: (1) to understand why these areas are centers of textured dust storm activity; and (2) to connect the characteristics of smaller-scale dust storm activity in these regions to the underlying dynamics in order to understand the role of WHP and SCF in the dynamics of global dust storms. This work is supported by NASA's Mars Data Analysis Program (NNX14AM32G).

Dust aerosol radiative effect and influence on urban atmospheric boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L.; Chen, M.; Li, L.

2007-11-01

An 1.5-level-closure and 3-D non-stationary atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) model and a radiation transfer model with the output of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model and lidar AML-1 are employed to simulate the dust aerosol radiative effect and its influence on ABL in Beijing for the period of 23-26 January 2002 when a dust storm occurred. The simulation shows that daytime dust aerosol radiative effect heats up the ABL at the mean rate of about 0.68 K/h. The horizontal wind speed from ground to 900 m layer is also overall increased, and the value changes about 0.01 m/s at 14:00 LT near the ground. At night, the dust aerosol radiative effect cools the ABL at the mean rate of -0.21 K/h and the wind speed lowers down at about -0.19 m/s at 02:00 LT near the ground.

[Geochemical characteristics and sources of atmospheric particulates in Shanghai during dust storm event].

PubMed

Qian, Peng; Zheng, Xiang-min; Zhou, Li-min

2013-05-01

Atmospheric particulates were sampled from three sampling sites of Putuo, Minhang and Qingpu Districts in Shanghai between Oct. , 2009 and Oct. , 2010. In addition, particulate samples were also collected from Nantong, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, and Beijing city where dust storm dust transported along during spring. Element compositions of atmospheric particulates were determined by XRF and ICP-MS. The concentrations of major and trace elements in atmospheric particulates from Putuo, Minhang and Qingpu Districts were similar, indicating their common source. The UCC standardization distribution map showed that the major element composition of dust storm samples was similar to that of loess in northwestern China, indicating that the dust storm dust was mainly derived from Western desert and partly from local area. The REE partition patterns of dust storm dusts among different cities along dust transport route were similar to each other, as well as to those of northern loess, which indicates that the dust storm samples may have the same material source as loess, which mainly comes from crust material. However, the REE partition patterns of non-dust storm particulates were different among the studied cities, and different from those of loess, which suggests that the non-dust storm samples may be mixed with non-crust source material, which is different from dust storm dust and loess. The major element composition and REE partition pattern are effective indicators for source tracing of dust storm dust.

Evaluation of atmospheric dust prediction models using ground-based observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terradellas, Enric; María Baldasano, José; Cuevas, Emilio; Basart, Sara; Huneeus, Nicolás; Camino, Carlos; Dundar, Cinhan; Benincasa, Francesco

2013-04-01

An important step in numerical prediction of mineral dust is the model evaluation aimed to assess its performance to forecast the atmospheric dust content and to lead to new directions in model development and improvement. The first problem to address the evaluation is the scarcity of ground-based routine observations intended for dust monitoring. An alternative option would be the use of satellite products. They have the advantage of a large spatial coverage and a regular availability. However, they do have numerous drawbacks that make the quantitative retrievals of aerosol-related variables difficult and imprecise. This work presents the use of different ground-based observing systems for the evaluation of dust models in the Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS). The dust optical depth at 550 nm forecast by different models is regularly compared with the AERONET measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) for 40 selected stations. Photometric measurements are a powerful tool for remote sensing of the atmosphere allowing retrieval of aerosol properties, such as AOD. This variable integrates the contribution of different aerosol types, but may be complemented with spectral information that enables hypotheses about the nature of the particles. Comparison is restricted to cases with low Ångström exponent values in order to ensure that coarse mineral dust is the dominant aerosol type. Additionally to column dust load, it is important to evaluate dust surface concentration and dust vertical profiles. Air quality monitoring stations are the main source of data for the evaluation of surface concentration. However they are concentrated in populated and industrialized areas around the Mediterranean. In the present contribution, results of different models are compared with observations of PM10 from the Turkish air quality network for April 2011, when several dust episodes where recorded. In regions devoid of air quality stations (as Saharan and Arabian deserts), model forecasts are regularly evaluated for 38 dust-prone sites through the use of an empirical relationship between visibility data (obtained from meteorological reports) and dust surface concentration. Finally, active remote sensing with lidar or ceilometers is the only way to inquire about the dust vertical distribution. Analysis of selected cases comparing model forecasts and lidar observations at Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Canary Islands) yields promising results regarding the identification of the dust plume thickness. From the results of this pilot trial, the convenience of a regular evaluation will be assessed.

Earlier vegetation green-up has reduced spring dust storms

PubMed Central

Fan, Bihang; Guo, Li; Li, Ning; Chen, Jin; Lin, Henry; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Shen, Miaogen; Rao, Yuhan; Wang, Cong; Ma, Lei

2014-01-01

The observed decline of spring dust storms in Northeast Asia since the 1950s has been attributed to surface wind stilling. However, spring vegetation growth could also restrain dust storms through accumulating aboveground biomass and increasing surface roughness. To investigate the impacts of vegetation spring growth on dust storms, we examine the relationships between recorded spring dust storm outbreaks and satellite-derived vegetation green-up date in Inner Mongolia, Northern China from 1982 to 2008. We find a significant dampening effect of advanced vegetation growth on spring dust storms (r = 0.49, p = 0.01), with a one-day earlier green-up date corresponding to a decrease in annual spring dust storm outbreaks by 3%. Moreover, the higher correlation (r = 0.55, p < 0.01) between green-up date and dust storm outbreak ratio (the ratio of dust storm outbreaks to times of strong wind events) indicates that such effect is independent of changes in surface wind. Spatially, a negative correlation is detected between areas with advanced green-up dates and regional annual spring dust storms (r = −0.49, p = 0.01). This new insight is valuable for understanding dust storms dynamics under the changing climate. Our findings suggest that dust storms in Inner Mongolia will be further mitigated by the projected earlier vegetation green-up in the warming world. PMID:25343265

An Investigation of Dust Storms Observed with the Mars Color Imager

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Wang, Huiqun

2017-01-01

Daily global imaging by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) continues the record of the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) and has allowed creation of a long-duration record of Martian dust storms. We observe dust storms over the first two Mars years of the MARCI record, including tracking individual storms over multiple sols, as well as tracking the growth and recession of the seasonal polar caps. Using the combined 6 Mars year record of textured dust storms (storms with visible textures on the observed dust cloud tops), we study the relationship between textured dust storm activity and meteorology (as simulated by the MarsWRF general circulation model) and surface properties. We find that textured dust storms preferentially occur in places and seasons with above average surface wind stress. Textured dust storm occurrence also has a modest linear anti-correlation with surface albedo (0.43) and topography (0.40). Lastly, we perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the distribution of occurrence of textured dust storms and find that over 50 of the variance in textured dust storm activity can be explained by two EOF modes. We associate the first EOF mode with cap-edge storms just before Ls = 180deg and the second EOF mode with flushing dust storms that occur from Ls = 180-210deg and again near Ls = 320deg.

Coastal Aerosol Distribution by Data Assimilation

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-30

useful for forecasts of dust storms in areas downwind of the large deserts of the world: Arabian Gulf, Sea of Japan, China Sea , Mediterranean Sea ...and the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. NAAPS also accurately predicts the fate of large-scale smoke and pollution plumes. With its global and continuous...The collaboration with Scripps Institute of Oceanography and the University of Warsaw has led to the addition of a sea salt component to NAAPS. The

Onset of frequent dust storms in northern China at ~AD 1100.

PubMed

He, Yuxin; Zhao, Cheng; Song, Mu; Liu, Weiguo; Chen, Fahu; Zhang, Dian; Liu, Zhonghui

2015-11-26

Dust storms in northern China strongly affect the living and health of people there and the dusts could travel a full circle of the globe in a short time. Historically, more frequent dust storms occurred during cool periods, particularly the Little Ice Age (LIA), generally attributed to the strengthened Siberian High. However, limited by chronological uncertainties in proxy records, this mechanism may not fully reveal the causes of dust storm frequency changes. Here we present a late Holocene dust record from the Qaidam Basin, where hydrological changes were previously reconstructed, and examine dust records from northern China, including the ones from historical documents. The records, being broadly consistent, indicate the onset of frequent dust storms at ~AD 1100. Further, peaked dust storm events occurred at episodes of high total solar irradiance or warm-dry conditions in source regions, superimposed on the high background of frequent dust storms within the cool LIA period. We thus suggest that besides strong wind activities, the centennial-scale dust storm events over the last 1000 years appear to be linked to the increased availability of dust source. With the anticipated global warming and deteriorating vegetation coverage, frequent occurrence of dust storms in northern China would be expected to persist.

[Dust storms trend in the Capital Circle of China over the past 50 years and its correlation with temperature, precipitation and wind].

PubMed

Chen, Yu-fu; Tang, Hai-ping

2005-01-01

The trends of number of dust storm days of the selected 11 meteorological stations from their established year to 2000 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation and wind are revealed. The number of dust storm days of the Capital Circle of China is distinctly variable in space and time. The numbers of dust storm days of the western area are far more than those of the eastern area. The interannual variability of number of dust storm days is remarkable. The number of dust storm days of the following 7 stations, Erlianhaote, Abaga, Xilinhaote, Fengning, Zhangjiakou, Huailai and Beijing, declined along the past decades, but those of the other four stations had no significant upward or downward trends. There is a marked seasonality of the number of dust storm days, and the maximum was in April. The correlation between number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s, which is critical wind velocity to entrain sand into the air, was strongest among the three climatic factor. There were significant positive correlations between the number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s in 6 stations. The second strongest climatic factor correlated with the number of dust storm days is temperature. There are significant negative correlations between the number of dust storm days and mean annual temperature, mean winter temperature, mean spring temperature in 3 or 4 stations. The correlation between the number of dust storm days and precipitation is weakest. Only one station, Zhurihe, showes significant negative correlation between the number of dust storm days and spring rainfall. There are 4 stations whose number of dust storm days don't significantly correlate with the climate. In the end, the spatial-temporal variability of dust storms and its relation with climate in the Capital Circle of China were discussed thoroughly.

Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harriman, L.

2014-12-01

Increased changes in land cover and global climate have led to increased frequency and/or intensity of dust storms in some regions of the world. Early detection and warning of dust storms, in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts, will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts to people and the environment. Since frequency and intensity of dust storms can vary from region to region, there is a demonstrated need for more research to be conducted over longer periods of time to analyze trends of dust storm events [1]. Dust storms impact their origin area, but also land, water and people a great distance away from where dust finally settles [2, 3]. These transboundary movements and accompanying impacts further warrant the need for global collaboration to help predict the onset, duration and path of a dust storm. Early warning systems can help communicate when a dust storm is occurring, the projected intensity of the dust storm and its anticipated physical impact over a particular geographic area. Development of regional dust storm models, such as CUACE/Dust for East Asia, and monitoring networks, like the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Network operated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the use of remote sensing and satellite imagery derived products [4], including MODIS, are currently being incorporated into early warning and monitoring initiatives. However, to increase future certainty of impacts of dust storms on vulnerable populations and ecosystems, more research is needed to analyze the influences of human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns on dust storm generation, movement and impact. Sources: [1] Goudie, A.S. (2009), Dust storms: recent developments, J Environ. Manage., 90. [2] Lee, H., and Liu, C. (2004), Coping with dust storm events: information, impacts, and policymaking in Taiwan, TAO, 15(5). [3] Marx, S.K., McGowan, H.A., and Balz, K.S. (2009), Long-range dust transport from eastern Australia: a proxy for Holocene aridity and ENSO-type climate variability, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 282. [4] Kimura, R. (2012), Factors contributing to dust storms in source regions producing the yellow-sand phenomena observed in Japan from 1993 to 2002, J. Arid Environ. 80

Characterisation of atmospheric deposited particles during a dust storm in urban areas of Eastern Australia.

PubMed

Gunawardena, Janaka; Ziyath, Abdul M; Bostrom, Thor E; Bekessy, Lambert K; Ayoko, Godwin A; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2013-09-01

The characteristics of dust particles deposited during the 2009 dust storm in the Gold Coast and Brisbane regions of Australia are discussed in this paper. The study outcomes provide important knowledge in relation to the potential impacts of dust storm related pollution on ecosystem health in the context that the frequency of dust storms is predicted to increase due to anthropogenic desert surface modifications and climate change impacts. The investigated dust storm contributed a large fraction of fine particles to the environment with an increased amount of total suspended solids, compared to dry deposition under ambient conditions. Although the dust storm passed over forested areas, the organic carbon content in the dust was relatively low. The primary metals present in the dust storm deposition were aluminium, iron and manganese, which are common soil minerals in Australia. The dust storm deposition did not contain significant loads of nickel, cadmium, copper and lead, which are commonly present in the urban environment. Furthermore, the comparison between the ambient and dust storm chromium and zinc loads suggested that these metals were contributed to the dust storm by local anthropogenic sources. The potential ecosystem health impacts of the 2009 dust storm include, increased fine solids deposition on ground surfaces resulting in an enhanced capacity to adsorb toxic pollutants as well as increased aluminium, iron and manganese loads. In contrast, the ecosystem health impacts related to organic carbon and other metals from dust storm atmospheric deposition are not considered to be significant. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dust modeling over East Asia during the summer of 2010 using the WRF-Chem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, B.; Huang, J.; Chen, S.

2017-12-01

An intense summer dust storm over East Asia during June 24-27, 2010, was systematically analyzed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and a variety of in situ measurements and satellite retrievals. The results showed that the WRF-Chem model captured the spatial and temporal distributions of meteorological factors and dust aerosols over East Asia. This summer dust storm was initiated by the approach of a transverse trough in the northwestern Xinjiang. Because of the passage of the cutoff-low, a large amount of cold air was transported southward and further enhanced in the narrow valleys of the Altai and Tianshan Mountains, which resulted in higher wind speeds and huge dust emissions over the Taklimakan Desert (TD). Dust emission fluxes over the TD were as high as 54 μg m-2 s-1 on June 25th. The dust aerosols from the TD then swept across Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Mongolia, and some were also transported eastward to Beijing, Tianjin, the Hebei region, and even South Korea and Japan. The simulations further showed that summer dust over East Asia exerts an important influence on the radiation budget in the Earth-atmosphere system. Dust heat the atmosphere at a maximum heating rate of 0.14 k day-1, effectively changing the vertical stability of the atmosphere and affecting climate change at regional and even global scales. The dust event-averaged direct radiative forcing induced by dust particles over the TD at all-sky was -6.0, -16.8 and 10.8 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere, the surface, and in the atmosphere, respectively.

Origin-Dependent Variations in the Atmospheric Microbiome Community in Eastern Mediterranean Dust Storms.

PubMed

Gat, Daniella; Mazar, Yinon; Cytryn, Eddie; Rudich, Yinon

2017-06-20

Microorganisms carried by dust storms are transported through the atmosphere and may affect human health and the functionality of microbial communities in various environments. Characterizing the dust-borne microbiome in dust storms of different origins or that followed different trajectories provides valuable data to improve our understanding of global health and environmental impacts. We present a comparative study on the diversity of dust-borne bacterial communities in dust storms from three distinct origins (North Africa, Syria and Saudi Arabia) and compare them with local bacterial communities sampled on clear days, all collected at a single location: Rehovot, Israel. Storms from different dust origins exhibited distinct bacterial communities, with signature bacterial taxa. Dust storms were characterized by a lower abundance of selected antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) compared with ambient dust, asserting that the origin of these genes is local and possibly anthropogenic. With the progression of the storm, the storm-borne bacterial community showed increasing resemblance to ambient dust, suggesting mixing with local dust. These results show, for the first time, that dust storms from different sources display distinct bacterial communities, suggesting possible diverse effects on the environment and public health.

Analysis of dust storms observed in Mongolia during 1937-1999

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natsagdorj, L.; Jugder, D.; Chung, Y. S.

Climatology of dust storms in Mongolia is compiled based on observational data of 49 meteorological stations from 1960 to 1999 and compared them with data between 1937 and 1989. Three different maps of the distribution of dust storms, drifting dust and the number of dusty days are presented. The results of the analysis show that the number of days with dust storms is <5 days over the Altai, the Khangai and the Khentei mountainous regions and more than 20-37 days in the Gobi Desert and semi-desert area. The greatest occurrence of drifting dust arises around the Mongol Els area of west Mongolia. The number of dusty days, which is derived from the sum of the number of days with dust storms and drifting dust, is <10 days in the mountainous area and 61-127 days in the Gobi Desert and the Great Lakes hollow of west Mongolia. It is found that 61% of dust storms occur in the spring in Mongolia and a dust storm lasts on average from 3.1 to 6.0 h. About 65.5-91.0% of dust storms occur in daytime and 9.0-34.5% at night. Dust storms occur more frequently in the city region and are accompanied by surface wind speeds usually from 6 to 20 ms -1. Dust storms usually occur when soil and air are dry, and 70% of dust storms occur in dry soil conditions. When dust storms occur, relative humidity averages 20-40% in Mongolia. An important outcome of this study is the trend of dusty days between 1960 and 1999. It shows that the number of dusty days has tripled from the 1960s to 1990s and has decreased since 1990.

Origin-Dependent Variations in the Atmospheric Microbiome in Eastern Mediterranean Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudich, Y.; Gat, D.

2017-12-01

Microorganisms carried by dust storms are transported through the atmosphere and may affect human health and the functionality of microbial communities in various environments. Characterizing the dust-borne microbiome in dust storms of different origins, or that followed different trajectories, provides valuable data to improve our understanding of global health and environmental impacts. We present a comparative study on the diversity of dust- borne bacterial communities in dust storms from three distinct origins—North Africa, Syria and Saudi Arabia—and compare them with local bacterial communities sampled on clear days, all collected at a single location, in Israel. Storms from different dust origins exhibited distinct bacterial communities, with signature bacterial taxa for each source. Dust storms were characterized by a lower abundance of selected antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) compared with ambient dust, asserting that the origin of these genes is local, possibly anthropogenic. With the progression of the storm, the storm-borne bacterial community showed increasing resemblance to ambient dust, suggesting mixing with local dust. We will also discuss how exposure to dust containing biological components affect lung epithelial cells. These results show, for the first time, that dust storms from different sources display distinct bacterial communities, suggesting possible distinct effects on the environment and public health.

Martian Dust Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantor, B. A.; James, P. B.

The Mars Observer Camera (MOC), aboard Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), has completed approximately 3 consecutive Martian years of global monitoring, since entering its mapping orbit on March 9, 1999. MOC observations have shown the important role that dust devils and dust storms play in the Martian dust cycle on time scales ranging from semi-diurnally to interannually. These dust events have been observed across much of the planet from the depths of Hellas basin to the summit of Arsia Mons and range in size from10s of meters across (dust devils) to planet encircling (global dust veils). Though dust devils occur throughout most of the Martian year, each hemisphere has a "dust devil season" that generally follows the subsolar latitude and appears to be repeatable from year-to-year. An exception is NW Amazonis, which has frequent, large dust devils throughout northern spring and summer. MOC observations show no evidence that dust devils cause or lead to dust storms, however, observations do suggest that dust storms can initiate dust devil activity. Dust devils also might play a role in maintaining the low background dust opacity of the Martian atmosphere. Dust storms occur almost daily with few exceptions, with 1000s occurring each year in the present Martian environment, dispelling the notion of a "Classical Dust Storm Season". However, there does appear to be an annual dust storm cycle, with storms developing in specific locations during certain seasons and that some individual storm events are repeatable from year-to-year. The majority of storms develop near the receding seasonal polar cap edge or along the corresponding polar hood boundaries in their respective hemispheres, but they also occur in the northern plains, the windward side of the large shield volcanoes, and in low laying regions such as Hellas, Argyre, and Chryse. The rarest of dust events are the "Great Storms" or "Global Events", of which only 6 (4 "planet encircling" and 2 "global") have been observed to date. With MOC we have observed that global dust events are not individual storms but are composed of a number of local and regional storms (sources) and that they do not signify climatic changes, but are only short-term perturbations to the general interannually repeatable Martian dust storm cycle.

The Association between Dust Storms and Daily Non-Accidental Mortality in the United States, 1993-2005.

EPA Science Inventory

Background:The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied in the context of Asian,Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms,but there has been no recent population-level epidemiological research on the dust storms in North America . The relevance of dust storms to publi...

A new false color composite technique for dust enhancement and point source determination in Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, Khadijeh; Taheri Shahraiyni, Hamid; Habibi Nokhandan, Majid; Hafezi Moghaddas, Naser; Sanaeifar, Melika

2011-11-01

The dust storm happens in the Middle East with very high frequency. According to the dust storm effects, it is vital to study on the dust storms in the Middle East. The first step toward the study on dust storm is the enhancement of dust storms and determination of the point sources. In this paper, a new false color composite (FCC) map for the dust storm enhancement and point sources determination in the Middle East has been developed. The 28 Terra-MODIS images in 2008 and 2009 were utilized in this study. We tried to replace the Red, Green and Blue bands in RGB maps with the bands or maps that enhance the dust storms. Hence, famous indices for dust storm detection (NDDI, D and BTD) were generated using the different bands of MODIS images. These indices with some bands of MODIS were utilized for FCC map generation with different combinations. Among the different combinations, four better FCC maps were selected and these four FCC are compared using visual interpretation. The results of visual interpretations showed that the best FCC map for enhancement of dust storm in the middle east is an especial combination of the three indices (Red: D, Green: BTD and Blue: NDDI). Therefore, we utilized of this new FCC method for the enhancement of dust storms and determination of point sources in Middle East.

Interannual variability of global dust storms on Mars.

PubMed

Haberle, R M

1986-10-24

Global dust storms on Mars occur in some years but not in others. If the four Mars years of Viking data are representative, some distinguishing characteristics can be inferred. In years with global dust storms, dust is raised in the southern hemisphere and spread over much of the planet by an intensified Hadley circulation. In years without global dust storms, dust is raised in the northern hemisphere by relatively active mid-latitude storm systems but does not spread globally. In both cases the dusty season is winter in the north. Assuming that the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation plays a key role in the onset of global dust storms, it is shown from numerical simulations that a northen hemisphere dust haze weakens its intensity and, hence, its contribution to the surface stress in the southern hemisphere. This, in turn, reduces the possibility of global dust storm development. The interannual variability is therefore the result either of a competition between circulations in opposite hemispheres, in which case the variability has a random component, or it is the result of the cycling of dust between hemispheres, in which case the variability is related to the characteristics of global dust storms themselves.

Where Do the Sand-Dust Storms Come From?: Conversations with Specialists from the Exploring Sand-Dust Storms Scientific Expedition Team

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shixin, Liu

2004-01-01

This article relates the different views from specialists of the scientific expedition team for the exploration of the origin of sand-dust storms. They observed and examined on-site the ecological environment of places of origin for sand-dust storms, and tried to find out causes of sand-dust storm and what harm it can cause in the hope of…

Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition

PubMed Central

Kim, R-S; Moon, Y-J; Gopalswamy, N; Park, Y-D; Kim, Y-H

2014-01-01

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz ≤ −5 nT or Ey ≥ 3 mV/m for t≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than −50 nT) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90%) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87%). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88%), while the former correctly forecasts only 71% of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81%) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted. PMID:26213515

Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition.

PubMed

Kim, R-S; Moon, Y-J; Gopalswamy, N; Park, Y-D; Kim, Y-H

2014-04-01

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study ( B z  ≤ -5 nT or E y  ≥ 3 mV/m for t ≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL model). Using 55 CME- Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90%) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87%). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88%), while the former correctly forecasts only 71% of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81%) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.

Interannual variability of planet-encircling dust storms on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zurek, Richard W.; Martin, Leonard J.

1993-01-01

A recent review of earth-based telescopic observations of Mars together with Viking orbiter and lander data are employed to estimate the frequency of occurrence of planet-encircling dust storms over the past century and to test whether the period spanned by the Mariner 9 and Viking missions to Mars is representative of the decades prior to 1950. Both spacecraft and earth-based observations suggest that planet-encircling dust storms on Mars occur during a 'dust storm season' in southern spring and summer. Viking data show that planet-encircling dust storms could have occurred in the past on Mars without being detected from earth during years in which Mars was far from earth during the dust storm season. Planet-encircling storms were absent during the dust storm seasons monitored during several favorable oppositions prior to 1956 and after 1986. The change of a planet-encircling dust storm occurring in any arbitrary Mars year is estimated to be approximately one in three, if this occurrence is random from year to year and yet restricted seasonally to southern spring and summer.

Meteorological aspects associated with dust storms in the Sistan region, southeastern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Rashki, A.; Houssos, E. E.; Mofidi, A.; Goto, D.; Bartzokas, A.; Francois, P.; Legrand, M.

2015-07-01

Dust storms are considered natural hazards that seriously affect atmospheric conditions, ecosystems and human health. A key requirement for investigating the dust life cycle is the analysis of the meteorological (synoptic and dynamic) processes that control dust emission, uplift and transport. The present work focuses on examining the synoptic and dynamic meteorological conditions associated with dust-storms in the Sistan region, southeastern Iran during the summer season (June-September) of the years 2001-2012. The dust-storm days (total number of 356) are related to visibility records below 1 km at Zabol meteorological station, located near to the dust source. RegCM4 model simulations indicate that the intense northern Levar wind, the high surface heating and the valley-like characteristics of the region strongly affect the meteorological dynamics and the formation of a low-level jet that are strongly linked with dust exposures. The intra-annual evolution of the dust storms does not seem to be significantly associated with El-Nino Southern Oscillation, despite the fact that most of the dust-storms are related to positive values of Oceanic Nino Index. National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis suggests that the dust storms are associated with low sea-level pressure conditions over the whole south Asia, while at 700 hPa level a trough of low geopotential heights over India along with a ridge over Arabia and central Iran is the common scenario. A significant finding is that the dust storms over Sistan are found to be associated with a pronounced increase of the anticyclone over the Caspian Sea, enhancing the west-to-east pressure gradient and, therefore, the blowing of Levar. Infrared Difference Dust Index values highlight the intensity of the Sistan dust storms, while the SPRINTARS model simulates the dust loading and concentration reasonably well, since the dust storms are usually associated with peaks in model simulations.

Instantaneous influence of dust storms on the optical scattering property of the ocean: a case study in the Yellow Sea, China.

PubMed

Chen, Shuguo; Zhang, Tinglu; Chen, Wenzhong; Shi, Jinhui; Hu, Lianbo; Song, Qingjun

2016-12-12

Asian dust storms originating from arid or semi-arid regions of China or her adjacent regions have important impact on the atmosphere and water composition, and ecological environment of the Eastern China Seas. This research used data collected in the middle of the South Yellow Sea, China, during a dust storm event from 23 April to 24 April 2006 to analyze the instantaneous influence of dust storms on optical scattering properties, which are closely related to particle characteristics. The analysis results showed that the dust storm had a remarkable influence on the optical scattering property in the upper mixed layer of water, and dust particles drily deposited from the dust storm with an aerosol optical depth of nearly 2.5 into the water could induce a 0.14 m^-1 change in the water optical scattering coefficient at 532 nm at the depth of 4 m. The duration of the instantaneous influence of the dust storm on the water optical scattering properties was short, and this influence disappeared rapidly within approximately 3 hours after the end of the dust storm.

Effects of dust storm events on weekly clinic visits related to pulmonary tuberculosis disease in Minqin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yun; Wang, Ruoyu; Ming, Jing; Liu, Guangxiu; Chen, Tuo; Liu, Xinfeng; Liu, Haixia; Zhen, Yunhe; Cheng, Guodong

2016-02-01

Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a major public health problem in China. Minqin, a Northwest county of China, has a very high number of annual PTB clinic visits and it is also known for its severe dust storms. The epidemic usually begins in February and ends in July, while the dust storms mainly occur throughout spring and early summer, thereby suggesting that there might be a close link between the causative agent of PTB and dust storms. We investigated the general impact of dust storms on PTB over time by analyzing the variation in weekly clinic visits in Minqin during 2005-2012. We used the Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test and a regression model to determine the seasonal periodicity of PTB and dust storms in a time series, as well as assessing the relationships between meteorological variables and weekly PTB clinic visits. After comparing the number of weekly PTB cases in Gansu province with dust storm events, we detected a clear link between the population dynamics of PTB and climate events, i.e., the onset of epidemics and dust storms (defined by an atmospheric index) occurred in almost the same mean week. Thus, particulate matter might be the cause of PTB outbreaks on dust storm days. It is highly likely that the significant decline in annual clinic visits was closely associated with improvements in the local environment, which prevented desertification and decreased the frequency of dust storm events. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to provide clear evidence that a PTB epidemic was affected by dust storms in China, which may give insights into the association between this environmental problem and the evolution of epidemic disease.

Dust modeling over East Asia during the summer of 2010 using the WRF-Chem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Siyu; Yuan, Tiangang; Zhang, Xiaorui; Zhang, Guolong; Feng, Taichen; Zhao, Dan; Zang, Zhou; Liao, Shujie; Ma, Xiaojun; Jiang, Nanxuan; Zhang, Jie; Yang, Fan; Lu, Hui

2018-07-01

An intense summer dust storm over East Asia during June 24-27, 2010, was systematically analyzed based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and a variety of in situ measurements and satellite retrievals. The results showed that the WRF-Chem model captures the spatial and temporal distributions of meteorological factors and dust aerosol in summer over East Asia well. This summer dust storm is initiated by the approach of a transverse trough in the northwestern Xinjiang. Because of the passage of the cutoff-low, a large amount of cold air is transported southward and further enhanced by the narrow valleys of the Altai and Tianshan Mountains, which results in higher wind speeds and huge dust emissions over the Taklimakan Desert (TD). Dust emission fluxes over the TD areas are high as 54 μg m-2 s-1 on June 25. The dust aerosol from the TD then sweeps across Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Mongolia, and some are also transported eastward to Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and even South Korea and Japan. The simulations further show that summer dust over East Asia exerts an important influence on the radiation budget in the Earth-atmosphere system. Dust heats the atmosphere at a maximum heating rate of 0.14 K day-1, effectively changing the vertical stability of the atmosphere and affecting climate change at regional and even global scales. The average direct radiative forcing induced by dust particles over the TD at all-sky is -6.0, -16.8 and 10.8 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere, the surface, and in the atmosphere, respectively. The discussion about radiative forcing induced by summer dust provides confidence for future investigation of summer dust impact on cloud properties and precipitation efficiency in the eastern China.

Long-term variability of dust optical depths on Mars during MY24-MY32 and their impact on subtropical lower ionosphere: Climatology, modeling, and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheel, Varun; Haider, S. A.

2016-08-01

Dust optical depths (τ) for nine Martian years (MY24-MY32) in the subtropical region (25-35°S) have been used to classify distinct dust scenarios. These data are based on observations at 9.3 µm from the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey missions and encompass the regional dust storms which occur every year around solar longitude (Ls) ~ 220° and the two major dust storms of MY25 and MY28. Constrained by these observations and the Mars Climate Sounder observations of detached dust layers, we estimate altitude profiles of dust concentrations. We discuss the characteristics of dust aerosol particles of different size between 0.2 and 3.0 µm by assuming a modified gamma distribution. We then use a comprehensive ion-dust model to calculate ion densities and conductivities in the lower ionosphere of Mars in the absence of dust storm at τ = 0.1 and Ls = 150° and for three dust storm periods viz., (1) major dust storm at τ = 1.7 and Ls = 210°, (2) major dust storm at τ = 1.2 and Ls = 280°, and (3) regional dust storm at τ = 0.5 and Ls = 220°. The model with 12 neutral species considers galactic cosmic rays as a source of ionization. Results show that the density of the dominant hydrated cluster ions and the electrical conductivity are reduced by an order of magnitude near the surface for a few months until the dust storm settles down to its normal condition.

Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, R.-S.; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Park, Y.-D.; Kim, Y.-H.

2014-01-01

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz = -5 nT or Ey = 3 mV/m for t = 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (n, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (?, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.

Quantitative detection of mass concentration of sand-dust storms via wind-profiling radar and analysis of Z- M relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Minzhong; Ming, Hu; Ruan, Zheng; Gao, Lianhui; Yang, Di

2018-02-01

With the aim to achieve quantitative monitoring of sand-dust storms in real time, wind-profiling radar is applied to monitor and study the process of four sand-dust storms in the Tazhong area of the Taklimakan Desert. Through evaluation and analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution of reflectivity factor, it is found that reflectivity factor ranges from 2 to 18 dBz under sand-dust storm weather. Using echo power spectrum of radar vertical beams, sand-dust particle spectrum and sand-dust mass concentration at the altitude of 600 ˜ 1500 m are retrieved. This study shows that sand-dust mass concentration reaches 700 μg/m3 under blowing sand weather, 2000 μg/m3 under sand-dust storm weather, and 400 μg/m3 under floating dust weather. The following equations are established to represent the relationship between the reflectivity factor and sand-dust mass concentration: Z = 20713.5 M 0.995 under floating dust weather, Z = 22988.3 M 1.006 under blowing sand weather, and Z = 24584.2 M 1.013 under sand-dust storm weather. The retrieval results from this paper are almost consistent with previous monitoring results achieved by former researchers; thus, it is implied that wind-profiling radar can be used as a new reference device to quantitatively monitor sand-dust storms.

The cascade from local to global dust storms on Mars: Temporal and spatial thresholds on thermal and dynamical feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toigo, Anthony D.; Richardson, Mark I.; Wang, Huiqun; Guzewich, Scott D.; Newman, Claire E.

2018-03-01

We use the MarsWRF general circulation model to examine the temporal and spatial response of the atmosphere to idealized local and regional dust storm radiative heating. The ability of storms to modify the atmosphere away from the location of dust heating is a likely prerequisite for dynamical feedbacks that aid the growth of storms beyond the local scale, while the ability of storms to modify the atmosphere after the cessation of dust radiative heating is potentially important in preconditioning the atmosphere prior to large scale storms. Experiments were conducted over a range of static, prescribed storm sizes, durations, optical depth strengths, locations, and vertical extents of dust heating. Our results show that for typical sizes (order 105 km2) and durations (1-10 sols) of local dust storms, modification of the atmosphere is less than the typical variability of the unperturbed (storm-free) state. Even if imposed on regional storm length scales (order 106 km2), a 1-sol duration storm similarly does not significantly modify the background atmosphere. Only when imposed for 10 sols does a regional dust storm create a significant impact on the background atmosphere, allowing for the possibility of self-induced dynamical storm growth. These results suggest a prototype for how the subjective observational categorization of storms may be related to objective dynamical growth feedbacks that only become available to storms after they achieve a threshold size and duration, or if they grow into an atmosphere preconditioned by a prior large and sustained storm.

The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms.

PubMed

Feng, Jieling; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xi

2017-08-15

Vegetation phenology changes have been widely applied in the disaster risk assessments of the spring dust storms, and vegetation green-up date shifts have a strong influence on dust storms. However, the effect of earlier vegetation green-up dates due to climate warming on the evaluation of dust storms return periods remains an important, but poorly understood issue. In this study, we evaluate the spring dust storm return period (February to June) in Inner Mongolia, Northern China, using 165 observations of severe spring dust storm events from 16 weather stations, and regional vegetation green-up dates as an integrated factor from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), covering a period from 1982 to 2007, by building the bivariate Copula model. We found that the joint return period showed better fitting results than without considering the integrated factor when the actual dust storm return period is longer than 2years. Also, for extremely severe dust storm events, the gap between simulation result and actual return period can be narrowed up to 0.4888years by using integrated factor. Furthermore, the risk map based on the return period results shows that the Mandula, Zhurihe, Sunitezuoqi, Narenbaolige stations are identified as high risk areas. In this study area, land surface is extensively covered by grasses and shrubs, vegetation green-up date can play a significant role in restraining spring dust storm outbreaks. Therefore, we suggest that Copula method can become a useful tool for joint return period evaluation and risk analysis of severe dust storms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Directional analysis and filtering for dust storm detection in NOAA-AVHRR imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janugani, S.; Jayaram, V.; Cabrera, S. D.; Rosiles, J. G.; Gill, T. E.; Rivera Rivera, N.

2009-05-01

In this paper, we propose spatio-spectral processing techniques for the detection of dust storms and automatically finding its transport direction in 5-band NOAA-AVHRR imagery. Previous methods that use simple band math analysis have produced promising results but have drawbacks in producing consistent results when low signal to noise ratio (SNR) images are used. Moreover, in seeking to automate the dust storm detection, the presence of clouds in the vicinity of the dust storm creates a challenge in being able to distinguish these two types of image texture. This paper not only addresses the detection of the dust storm in the imagery, it also attempts to find the transport direction and the location of the sources of the dust storm. We propose a spatio-spectral processing approach with two components: visualization and automation. Both approaches are based on digital image processing techniques including directional analysis and filtering. The visualization technique is intended to enhance the image in order to locate the dust sources. The automation technique is proposed to detect the transport direction of the dust storm. These techniques can be used in a system to provide timely warnings of dust storms or hazard assessments for transportation, aviation, environmental safety, and public health.

Long range transport of fine grained sediments on Mars: Atmospheric dust loading, as inferred from Viking Lander imaging data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollack, J. B.; Colburn, D. S.

1984-01-01

During the first Viking year, two global dust storms occurred and they contributed about 90% of the dust suspended in the Martian atmosphere on a global average, over the course of this year. The remainder was due to the cumulative effect of local dust storms. When globally distributed, the amount of suspended dust introduced into the atmosphere this Martian year was about 5x10(-3) g/sq cm. This mass loading was derived from the incremental optical depths measured over this year and estimates of the mean size of the dust particles (2.5 microns). During the second Martian year, global dust storms were far more muted than during the first year. No near perihelion dust storm occurred, and a somewhat weaker dust storm may have occurred near the start of the spring season in the Southern Hemisphere, at about the same time that the first global dust storm of the first year occurred. Thus, the dust loading derived for the first Martian year may be somewhat higher than the average over many Martian years, a conclusion that appears to be supported by preliminary studies of Martian years beyond the second Viking year on Mars.

A study of long-term trends in mineral dust aerosol distributions in Asia using a general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukai, Makiko; Nakajima, Teruyuki; Takemura, Toshihiko

2004-10-01

Dust events have been observed in Japan with high frequency since 2000. On the other hand, the frequency of dust storms is said to have decreased in the desert regions of China since about the middle of the 1970s. This study simulates dust storms and transportation of mineral dust aerosols in the east Asia region from 1981 to 2001 using an aerosol transport model, Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS), implemented in the Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies atmospheric global circulation model, in order to investigate the main factors that control a dust event and its long-term variation. The model was forced to simulate a real atmospheric condition by a nudging technique using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data on wind velocities, temperature, specific humidity, soil wetness, and snow depth. From a comparison between the long-term change in the dust emission and model parameters, it is found that the wind speed near the surface level had a significant influence on the dust emission, and snow is also an important factor in the early spring dust emission. The simulated results suggested that dust emissions from northeast China have a great impact on dust mass concentration in downwind regions, such as the cities of northeastern China, Korea, and Japan. When the frequency of dust events was high in Japan, a low-pressure system tended to develop over the northeast China region that caused strong winds. From 2000 to 2001 the simulated dust emission flux decreased in the Taklimakan desert and the northwestern part of China, while it increased in the Gobi desert and the northeastern part of China. Consequently, dust particles seem to be transported more from the latter region by prevailing westerlies in the springtime to downwind areas as actually observed. In spite of the similarity, however, there is still a large disagreement between observed and simulated dust frequencies and concentrations. A more realistic land surface and uplift mechanism of dust particles should be modeled to improve the model simulation. Desertification of the northeastern China region may be another reason for this disagreement.

Northern hemisphere dust storms on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, P. B.

1993-01-01

Dust storms in the northern hemisphere of Mars appear to be less common than the more familiar southern hemisphere storms, and essentially, no activity north of about 30 latittude has been documented. The data are, however, subject to an observational bias because Mars is near aphelion during oppositions, which occur during the most likely seasons for dust activity in the north. The amount of dust activity in the northern hemisphere is clearly very relevant to the role of atmospheric transport in the dust cycle. The classic global storms that occur during spring in the southern hemisphere are observed to transport dust from sources in the southern hemisphere to sinks or temporary depositories in the north. The question of whether atmospheric transport can close the dust cycle, i.e., return the dust to the southern hemisphere sources on some timescale, is clearly relevant to the solution of the puzzle of how the dust storm cycle is modulated, i.e., why storms occur in some years but not in others. There are data that suggest that the spring/early summer season in the northern hemisphere of Mars during the year following the major 1977 storms observed by Viking was very dusty. A number of observations of the vicinity of the receding north polar cap showed clear evidence of substantial dust activity in the sub-Arctic region.

Observed characteristics of dust storm events over the western United States using meteorological, satellite, and air quality measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, H.; Wang, J. X. L.

2014-08-01

To improve dust storm identification over the western United States, historical dust events measured by air quality and satellite observations are analyzed based on their characteristics in data sets of regular meteorology, satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD), and air quality measurements. Based on the prevailing weather conditions associated with dust emission, dust storm events are classified into the following four typical types: (1) The key feature of cold front-induced dust storms is their rapid process with strong dust emissions. (2) Events caused by meso- to small-scale weather systems have the highest levels of emissions. (3) Dust storms caused by tropical disturbances show a stronger air concentration of dust and last longer than those in (1) and (2). (4) Dust storms triggered by cyclogenesis last the longest. In this paper, sample events of each type are selected and examined to explore characteristics observed from in situ and remote-sensing measurements. These characteristics include the lasting period, surface wind speeds, areas affected, average loading on ground-based optical and/or air quality measurements, peak loading on ground-based optical and/or air quality measurements, and loading on satellite-based aerosol optical depth. Based on these analyses, we compare the characteristics of the same dust events captured in different data sets in order to define the dust identification criteria. The analyses show that the variability in mass concentrations captured by in situ measurements is consistent with the variability in AOD from stationary and satellite observations. Our analyses also find that different data sets are capable of identifying certain common characteristics, while each data set also provides specific information about a dust storm event. For example, the meteorological data are good at identifying the lasting period and area impacted by a dust event; the ground-based air quality and optical measurements can capture the peak strength well; aerosol optical depth (AOD) from satellite data sets allows us to better identify dust-storm-affected areas and the spatial extent of dust. The current study also indicates that the combination of in situ and satellite observations is a better method to fill gaps in dust storm recordings.

[Public perceptions of the risk of Asian dust storms in Seoul and its metropolitan area].

PubMed

Im, Hyoung-June; Kwon, Ho-Jang; Ha, Mina; Lee, Sang Gyu; Hwang, Seung-Sik; Ha, Eun Hee; Cho, Soo-Hun

2006-05-01

In spite of the recent increased concern for Asian dust storms, there are few studies concerning how dangerous the general public recognizes these dust storms to be. This study examined the public's perceptions of the risk of the Asian dust storms and also the source of the information concerning the risk. A telephone interview survey using a standardized questionnaire was done for the adults living in Seoul and its metropolitan area from May 15th, 2003 to May 16th, 2003. The contents of the questionnaire were the sociodemographic characteristics, the perceptions of risk to the Asian dust storms, and the coping strategy of the study participants. The study participants get their information on Asian dust storms mainly from TV newscasts and they have a good knowledge of them. They regard it as one of the most dangerous health risks, along with dioxin. They think that it is associated with allergic rhinitis, conjunctivitis and bronchial asthma, etc. Of the 500 study participants, 201(40.2%) persons suffered bodily discomforts during the Asian dust storm period. Although there are uncertainties about the health risks of Asian dust storms, the public thinks these dust storms are very dangerous to health in many ways. This negative perception will not disappear easily. To fill the gap of the public's perceptions of the risk and the objective evidence of its health effects, more studies about its health effects and the methods to reduce exposure are required.

Dust Storms and Mortality in the United States, 1995-2005

EPA Science Inventory

Extreme weather events, such as dust storms, are predicted to become more frequent as the global climate warms through the 21st century. The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied extensively in the context of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms, but t...

Interannual Variations in Aerosol Sources and Their Impact on Orographic Precipitation over California's Central Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creamean, J.; Ault, A. P.; White, A. B.; Neiman, P. J.; Minnis, P.; Prather, K. A.

2014-12-01

Aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) have the potential to profoundly influence precipitation processes. Furthermore, changes in orographic precipitation have broad implications for reservoir storage and flood risks. As part of the CalWater I field campaign (2009-2011), the impacts of aerosol sources on precipitation were investigated in the California Sierra Nevada Mountains. In 2009, the precipitation collected on the ground was influenced by both local biomass burning and long-range transported dust and biological particles, while in 2010, by mostly local sources of biomass burning and pollution, and in 2011 by mostly long-range transport of dust and biological particles from distant sources. Although vast differences in the sources of residues were observed from year-to-year, dust and biological residues were omnipresent (on average, 55% of the total residues combined) and were associated with storms consisting of deep convective cloud systems and larger quantities of precipitation initiated in the ice phase. Further, biological residues were dominant during storms with relatively warm cloud temperatures (up to -15°C), suggesting biological components were more efficient IN than mineral dust. On the other hand, when precipitation quantities were lower, local biomass burning and pollution residues were observed (on average 31% and 9%, respectively), suggesting these residues potentially served as CCN at the base of shallow cloud systems and that lower level polluted clouds of storm systems produced less precipitation than non-polluted (i.e., marine) clouds. The direct connection of the sources of aerosols within clouds and precipitation type and quantity can be used in models to better assess how local emissions versus long-range transported dust and biological aerosols play a role in impacting regional weather and climate, ultimately with the goal of more accurate predictive weather forecast models and water resource management.

An automated and integrated framework for dust storm detection based on ogc web processing services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, F.; Shea, G. Y. K.; Wong, M. S.; Campbell, J.

2014-11-01

Dust storms are known to have adverse effects on public health. Atmospheric dust loading is also one of the major uncertainties in global climatic modelling as it is known to have a significant impact on the radiation budget and atmospheric stability. The complexity of building scientific dust storm models is coupled with the scientific computation advancement, ongoing computing platform development, and the development of heterogeneous Earth Observation (EO) networks. It is a challenging task to develop an integrated and automated scheme for dust storm detection that combines Geo-Processing frameworks, scientific models and EO data together to enable the dust storm detection and tracking processes in a dynamic and timely manner. This study develops an automated and integrated framework for dust storm detection and tracking based on the Web Processing Services (WPS) initiated by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The presented WPS framework consists of EO data retrieval components, dust storm detecting and tracking component, and service chain orchestration engine. The EO data processing component is implemented based on OPeNDAP standard. The dust storm detecting and tracking component combines three earth scientific models, which are SBDART model (for computing aerosol optical depth (AOT) of dust particles), WRF model (for simulating meteorological parameters) and HYSPLIT model (for simulating the dust storm transport processes). The service chain orchestration engine is implemented based on Business Process Execution Language for Web Service (BPEL4WS) using open-source software. The output results, including horizontal and vertical AOT distribution of dust particles as well as their transport paths, were represented using KML/XML and displayed in Google Earth. A serious dust storm, which occurred over East Asia from 26 to 28 Apr 2012, is used to test the applicability of the proposed WPS framework. Our aim here is to solve a specific instance of a complex EO data and scientific model integration problem by using a framework and scientific workflow approach together. The experimental result shows that this newly automated and integrated framework can be used to give advance near real-time warning of dust storms, for both environmental authorities and public. The methods presented in this paper might be also generalized to other types of Earth system models, leading to improved ease of use and flexibility.

Dust Storm, Sahara Desert, Algeria/Niger Border, Africa

NASA Image and Video Library

1992-05-16

STS049-92-071 (13 May 1992) --- The STS-49 crew aboard the Earth-orbiting Space Shuttle Endeavour captured this Saharan dust storm on the Algeria-Niger border. The south-looking, late-afternoon view shows one of the best examples in the Shuttle photo data base of a dust storm. A series of gust fronts, caused by dissipating thunderstorms have picked up dust along the outflow boundaries. Small cumulus clouds have formed over the most vigorously ascending parts of the dust front, enhancing the visual effect of the front. The storm is moving roughly north-northwest, at right angles to the most typical path for dust storms in this part of the Sahara (shown by lines of sand on the desert surface in the foreground). Storms such as this can move out into the Atlantic, bringing dust even as far as the Americas on some occasions. A crewmember used a 70mm handheld Hasselblad camera with a 100mm lens to record the frame.

Maps of Structured Aerosol Activity During the MY 25 Planet-encircling Dust Storm on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noble, J.; Wilson, R. J.; Cantor, B. A.; Kahre, M. A.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Bridger, A. F. C.; Haberle, R. M.; Barnes, J.

2016-12-01

We have produced a sequence of 42 global maps from Ls=165.1-187.7° that delimit the areal extent of structured aerosol activity based on a synthesis of Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data, including Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) daily global maps (DGMs) and wide angle imagery, Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) dust and H2O ice opacity, and Mars general circulation model (MGCM) derived dust opacity. The primary motivation of this work is to examine the temporal and spatial relationship between dust storms observed by MOC and baroclinic eddies inferred from Fast Fourier Synoptic Mapping (FFSM) of TES temperatures in order to study the initiation and evolution of Mars year (MY) 25 planet-encircling dust storm (PDS) precursor phase dust storms. A secondary motivation is to provide improved input to MGCM simulations. Assuming that structured dust storms indicate active dust lifting, these maps allow us to define potential dust lifting regions. This work has two implications for martian atmospheric science. First, integration of MGS data has enabled us to develop improved quantitative and qualitative descriptions of storm evolution that may be used to constrain estimates of dust lifting regions, horizontal dust distribution, and to infer associated circulations. Second, we believe that these maps provide better bases and constraints for modeling storm initiation. Based on our analysis of these MGS data, we propose the following working hypothesis to explain the dynamical processes responsible for PDS initiation and expansion. Six eastward-traveling transient baroclinic eddies triggered the MY 25 precursor storms in Hellas during Ls=176.2-184.6° due to the enhanced dust lifting associated with their low-level wind and stress fields. This was followed by a seventh eddy that contributed to expansion on Ls=186.3°. Increased opacity and temperatures from dust lifting associated with the first three eddies enhanced thermal tides which supported further storm initiation and expansion out of Hellas. Constructive interference of eddies and other circulation components including sublimation flow, anabatic winds (daytime upslope), and diurnal tides may have contributed to storm onset in, and expansion out of Hellas.

Interannual Similarity in the Martian Atmosphere During the Dust Storm Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kass, D. M.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

2016-01-01

We find that during the dusty season on Mars (southern spring and summer) of years without a global dust storm there are three large regional-scale dust storms. The storms are labeled A, B, and C in seasonal order. This classification is based on examining the zonal mean 50 Pa (approximately 25 km) daytime temperature retrievals from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO over 6 Mars Years. Regional-scale storms are defined as events where the temperature exceeds 200 K. Examining the MCS dust field at 50 Pa indicates that warming in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by direct heating, while northern high latitude warming is a dynamical response. A storms are springtime planet encircling Southern Hemisphere events. B storms are southern polar events that begin near perihelion and last through the solstice. C storms are southern summertime events starting well after the end of the B storm. C storms show the most interannual variability.

Interannual similarity in the Martian atmosphere during the dust storm season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kass, D. M.; Kleinböhl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

2016-06-01

We find that during the dusty season on Mars (southern spring and summer) of years without a global dust storm there are three large regional-scale dust storms. The storms are labeled A, B, and C in seasonal order. This classification is based on examining the zonal mean 50 Pa (˜25 km) daytime temperature retrievals from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO over 6 Mars Years. Regional-scale storms are defined as events where the temperature exceeds 200 K. Examining the MCS dust field at 50 Pa indicates that warming in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by direct heating, while northern high latitude warming is a dynamical response. A storms are springtime planet encircling Southern Hemisphere events. B storms are southern polar events that begin near perihelion and last through the solstice. C storms are southern summertime events starting well after the end of the B storm. C storms show the most interannual variability.

Effect of Asian dust storms on daily mortality in seven metropolitan cities of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyewon; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Lim, Youn-Hee; Yi, Seungmuk

2013-11-01

The adverse effects of dust storms on health have been a major issue in several countries. A substantial number of studies have found significant associations between dust storms and morbidity such as emergency visits and hospitalizations. However, the results of the studies on the association between dust storms and mortality are inconsistent. In Korea, no study has found statistically significant effect of Asian dust storms on daily mortality. Thus, this study aims to explore the effect of Asian dust storms on daily mortality in Korea during 2001-2009. All analyses were confined to non-accidental mortality. We used generalized additive model with Quasi-Poisson regressions. We considered the lag effect of dust storms up to 7 days and performed subgroup analyses by disease, sex and age. Current day's temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, day of the week, season and time trends were controlled for in a basic model. SO2, NO2 and PM10 levels were also added in the further analyses. Meta-analysis was applied for seven metropolitan cities in Korea to estimate the pooled effects of Asian dust storms. We reported results as excessive mortality by percentage due to Asian dust storms. We found significant positive associations between Asian dust storms and mortality at lag 0 (cardiovascular: 2.91%; 95% CI: 0.13, 5.77, male: 2.74%; 95% CI: 0.74, 4.77 and <65 years: 2.52%; 95% CI: 0.06, 5.04), at lag 2 (male 2.4%; 95% CI: 0.43, 4.4 and <65 years: 2.49%; 95% CI: 0.07, 4.97), at lag 3 (total non-accidental: 1.57%; 95% CI: 0.11, 3.06, male: 2.24%; 95% CI: 0.28, 4.25 and <65 years: 2.43%; 95% CI: 0.01, 4.91) and at lag 5 (cardiovascular: 3.7%; 95% CI: 0.93, 6.54 and male: 2.04%, 95 CI: 0.08, 4.04) in the model which adjusted for NO2 additionally. Other models showed similar significant results except the PM10-adjusted model. This is the first study to show the significant relationship between Asian dust storms and mortality in Korea and to present a pooled effect estimate by meta-analysis of multiple cities in a country. Asian dust storms could significantly affect daily mortality in Korea.

Parameterization of Rocket Dust Storms on Mars in the LMD Martian GCM: Modeling Details and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chao; Forget, François; Bertrand, Tanguy; Spiga, Aymeric; Millour, Ehouarn; Navarro, Thomas

2018-04-01

The origin of the detached dust layers observed by the Mars Climate Sounder aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter is still debated. Spiga et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgre.20046) revealed that deep mesoscale convective "rocket dust storms" are likely to play an important role in forming these dust layers. To investigate how the detached dust layers are generated by this mesoscale phenomenon and subsequently evolve at larger scales, a parameterization of rocket dust storms to represent the mesoscale dust convection is designed and included into the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Martian Global Climate Model (GCM). The new parameterization allows dust particles in the GCM to be transported to higher altitudes than in traditional GCMs. Combined with the horizontal transport by large-scale winds, the dust particles spread out and form detached dust layers. During the Martian dusty seasons, the LMD GCM with the new parameterization is able to form detached dust layers. The formation, evolution, and decay of the simulated dust layers are largely in agreement with the Mars Climate Sounder observations. This suggests that mesoscale rocket dust storms are among the key factors to explain the observed detached dust layers on Mars. However, the detached dust layers remain absent in the GCM during the clear seasons, even with the new parameterization. This implies that other relevant atmospheric processes, operating when no dust storms are occurring, are needed to explain the Martian detached dust layers. More observations of local dust storms could improve the ad hoc aspects of this parameterization, such as the trigger and timing of dust injection.

Atmospheric bioaerosols transported via dust storms in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallar, A. Gannet; Chirokova, Galina; McCubbin, Ian; Painter, Thomas H.; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Dodson, Craig

2011-09-01

Measurements are presented showing the presence of biological material within frequent dust storms in the western United States. Previous work has indicated that biological particles were enhancing the impact of dust storms on the formation of clouds. This paper presents multiple case studies, between April and May 2010, showing the presence of and quantifying the amount of biological material via an Ultraviolet Aerodynamic Particle Sizer during dust events. All dust storms originated in the Four Corners region in the western Untied States and were measured at Storm Peak Laboratory, a high elevation facility in northwestern Colorado. From an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer, the mean dust particle size during these events was approximately 1 μm, with number concentrations between 6 cm-3 and 12 cm-3. Approximately 0.2% of these dust particles had fluorescence signatures, indicating the presence of biological material.

Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

2015-12-01

When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

Dust storms and the risk of asthma admissions to hospitals in Kuwait.

PubMed

Thalib, Lukman; Al-Taiar, Abdullah

2012-09-01

Arid areas in the Arabian Peninsula are one of the largest sources of global dust, yet there is no data on the impact of this on human health. This study aimed to investigate the impact of dust storms on hospital admissions due to asthma and all respiratory diseases over a period of 5 years in Kuwait. A population-based retrospective time series study of daily emergency asthma admissions and admissions due to respiratory causes in public hospitals in Kuwait was analyzed in relation to dust storm events. Dust storm days were defined as the mean daily PM(10)>200 μg/m(3) based on measurements obtained from all six monitoring sites in the country. During the five-year study period, 569 (33.6%) days had dust storm events and they were significantly associated with an increased risk of same-day asthma and respiratory admission, adjusted relative risk of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02-1.12) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.04-1.08), respectively. This was particularly evident among children. Dust storms have a significant impact on respiratory and asthma admissions. Evidence is more convincing and robust compared to that from other geographical settings which highlights the importance of public health measures to protect people's health during dust storms and reduce the burden on health services due to dust events. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of dust storm source areas in West Asia using multiple environmental datasets.

PubMed

Cao, Hui; Amiraslani, Farshad; Liu, Jian; Zhou, Na

2015-01-01

Sand and Dust storms are common phenomena in arid and semi-arid areas. West Asia Region, especially Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain, has been recognized as one of the most important dust source areas in the world. In this paper, a method is applied to extract SDS (Sand and Dust Storms) sources in West Asia region using thematic maps, climate and geography, HYSPLIT model and satellite images. Out of 50 dust storms happened during 2000-2013 and collected in form of MODIS images, 27 events were incorporated as demonstrations of the simulated trajectories by HYSPLIT model. Besides, a dataset of the newly released Landsat images was used as base-map for the interpretation of SDS source regions. As a result, six main clusters were recognized as dust source areas. Of which, 3 clusters situated in Tigris-Euphrates plain were identified as severe SDS sources (including 70% dust storms in this research). Another cluster in Sistan plain is also a potential source area. This approach also confirmed six main paths causing dust storms. These paths are driven by the climate system including Siberian and Polar anticyclones, monsoon from Indian Subcontinent and depression from north of Africa. The identification of SDS source areas and paths will improve our understandings on the mechanisms and impacts of dust storms on socio-economy and environment of the region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The return periods and risk assessment of severe dust storms in Inner Mongolia with consideration of the main contributing factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng; Ji, Zhonghui

2012-09-01

This study presents a methodology for return period analysis and risk assessment of severe dust storm disaster. Meteorological observation data, soil moisture data, and remote sensing data from 30 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia (western China) from 1985 to 2006 were used for the study. A composite index of severe dust storm disaster (Index I (SDS)) based on the influence mechanisms of the main contributing factors was developed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted comprehensive method, and the hazard risk curves (i.e., the transcendental probability curves of I (SDS)) for the 30 stations were established using the parameter estimation method. We then analyzed the risk of the occurrence of severe dust storm under different scenarios of 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods. The results show that the risk decreased from west to east across Inner Mongolia, and there are four severe dust storm occurrence peak value centers, including Guaizihu, Jilantai, Hailisu, and Zhurihe-Erenhot. The severity of dust storms in seven places will be intolerable in the 50-year return period scenario and in three places in the 20-year return period scenario. These results indicate that these locations should concentrate forces on disaster prevention, monitoring, and early warning. The I (SDS) was developed as an easily understandable tool useful for the assessment and comparison of the relative risk of severe dust storm disasters in different areas. The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in their management of severe dust storm disasters in their efforts to (1) make resource allocation decisions, (2) make high-level planning decisions, and (3) raise public awareness of severe dust storm risk.

Dust Storm Covers Opportunity

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-06-10

This global map of Mars shows a growing dust storm as of June 6, 2018. The map was produced by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) camera on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft. The blue dot shows the approximate location of Opportunity. The storm was first detected on June 1. The MARCI camera has been used to monitor the storm ever since. Full dust storms like this one are not surprising, but are infrequent. They can crop up suddenly but last weeks, even months. During southern summer, sunlight warms dust particles, lifting them higher into the atmosphere and creating more wind. That wind kicks up yet more dust, creating a feedback loop that NASA scientists still seek to understand. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA22329

Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norton, C. C.

1985-01-01

A final progress report is presented on the Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS). The primary purpose of the CSIS is to demonstrate and evaluate real time interactive computerized data collection, interpretation and display techniques as applied to severe weather forecasting. CSIS objectives pertaining to improved severe storm forecasting and warning systems are outlined. The positive impact that CSIS has had on the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is discussed. The benefits of interactive processing systems on the forecasting ability of the NSSFC are described.

Microbiological and meteorological analysis of two Australian dust storms in April 2009.

PubMed

Lim, Natalie; Munday, Chris I; Allison, Gwen E; O'Loingsigh, Tadhg; De Deckker, Patrick; Tapper, Nigel J

2011-12-15

Dust is an important source of bioaerosols including bacteria. In this study, the microbiology and meteorology of specific dust storms in Australia were investigated. The samples were collected from two dust events in April 2009 that were characterised by intense cold fronts that entrained dust from the highly erodible and drought-stricken Mallee and Riverina regions of Victoria and central NSW. In the first storm, the dust travelled eastward over Canberra and Sydney, and in the second storm, the dust travelled east/southeastward over Canberra and Melbourne. Rain fell on both cities during the second dust storm. Dust and rain samples were collected, cultured, and the composition compared using polymerase chain reaction denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE). Multiple bands were evident on DGGE indicative of a diverse microflora, and identification of several bands confirmed the presence of multiple genera and species representing three phyla. Numerous bands represented Bacillus species, and these were present in multiple dust samples collected from both Canberra and Melbourne. Interestingly, the microflora present in rain samples collected in Canberra during the second dust storm was quite different and the DGGE banding patterns from these samples clustered separately to most dust samples collected at the same time. Identification of several DGGE bands and PCR products from these rain samples indicated the presence of Pseudomonas species. These results indicate that Australian dust and rain have a diverse microflora and highlights the contribution of dust events to the distribution of microbes in the environment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climatology of dust distribution over West Asia from homogenized remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabavi, Seyed Omid; Haimberger, Leopold; Samimi, Cyrus

2016-06-01

In the past decade, West Asia has witnessed more frequent and intensified dust storms affecting Iran and Persian Gulf countries. Employing a varying threshold that takes into account systematic differences between TOMS and OMI data, TOMS-OMI Aerosol Index data are used to identify long-term changes in the horizontal distribution of dust storms in West Asia from 1980 to present. The northwest of Iraq and east of Syria are identified as emerging dusty areas, whereas east of Saudi Arabia and southeast of Iraq are identified as permanent dusty areas, including both dust sources and affected areas. Whereas the frequency of dust events increased slightly in the permanent dusty areas, it increased markedly in the emerging dusty areas. As expected, the frequency of dust events is highest in June and July. The dust source areas are identified as the Iraq-Saudi Arabia boundary region and (recently) the northwest of Iraq, using MODIS deep blue aerosol optical depth data. Subsequently, a lagged correlation was implemented between identified dust sources and whole West Asia to determine the main paths and receptors of intense dust storms. Accordingly, southwest of Iran and Persian Gulf countries were determined as main receptors of summertime dust storms in West Asia. During spring, dust storms mostly hit the northern half of the region and reach to the Caspian Sea. Analyzing atmospheric patterns, Shamal and Frontal patterns were found as dominant atmospheric circulations simultaneous with summertime and springtime dust storms, respectively.

The Mars Science Laboratory Optical Depth Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemmon, M. T.

2014-07-01

MSL’s Mastcam has been used to measure atmospheric dust loading. The observations show dust storms and the settling of dust during southern fall/winter and show mean dust radius declining from 1.6 to 1.4 microns as the dust settled post-storm.

Dust Storms in the United States are Associated with Increased Cardiovascular Mortality

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Extreme weather events such as dust storms are predicted to become more frequent as the global climate warms through the 21st century. Studies of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian dust storms have found associations with cardiovascular and total non-accidental...

The Association between Dust Storms and Daily Non ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background:The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied in the context of Asian,Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms,but there has been no recent population-level epidemiological research on the dust storms in North America . The relevance of dust storms to public health is likely to increase as extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent with anticipated changes in climate through the 21st century.Objectives: We examined the association between dust storms and county-level non-accidental mortality in the United States from 1993 through 2005.Methods:Dust storm incidence data, including date and approximate location. are taken from the U.S. National Weather Service storm database. County-level mortality data for the years 1993-2005 were acquired from the National Center for Health Statistics. Distributed lag conditionallogistic regression models under a time-stratified case-crossover design were used to study the relationship between dust storms and daily mortality counts over the whole United States and in Arizona and California specifically. End points included total non-accidental mortality and three mortality subgroups (cardiovascular, respiratory, and other non-acc idental).Results: We estimated that for the United States as a whole, total non-accidental mortality increased by 7.4% (95% Cl: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.011) and 6.7% (95% Cl: 1.1,12.6; p = 0.018) at 2- and 3-day lags, respectively, and by an average of 2.7% (95% Cl: 0.4,

Characteristics of recent dust storms over the Indian region using real time multi-satellite observations from the direct broadcast receiving system at IMD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, A. K.; Sharma, A. K.; Soni, V. K.; Kundu, P. K.

2013-04-01

In this study, observations from microwave satellites, visible and infrared instruments have been analyzed to detect dust storm over north and north-west part of India during 18-23 March 2012. This study investigated the approach to utilize the multi satellite data of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on-board the Terra and Aqua satellite and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on-board NOAA satellite to study the characteristics of dust storms from real time direct broadcast (DB) receiving system installed at three places of India Meteorological Department (IMD). The dust storm detection is based on the infrared brightness temperature (BT) difference between channels at 11 and 12 μm and polarized BT difference between two channels of 89 and 23.8 GHz. It is found that the significant differences between the BT of channel 89 and 23.8 can be used as a discriminator of identifying dust storm. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectroradiometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI) and AMSU-A 23 GHz channel BT from NOAA satellite over the north and north-west part of India have also been analyzed. The result indicated the characteristic behavior between BT and AI during the different phases of the dust storm. Finally, the occurrence of dust outbreaks has also been validated with sky radiometer of IMD, which confirms the presence of a dust storm over the Indian region. Further, the findings of the study and its approaches apply to the other dust storm cases which occurred during the months of April and June 2012. The integrated approach suggested the potential to use high resolution data of microwave as well as thermal-infrared using multi-satellite observations from real time direct broadcast system for the detection of severe, moderate or weak dust storms very well. The approach is found to be promising for operational application.

Performance Comparison of the European Storm Surge Models and Chaotic Model in Forecasting Extreme Storm Surges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siek, M. B.; Solomatine, D. P.

2009-04-01

Storm surge modeling has rapidly developed considerably over the past 30 years. A number of significant advances on operational storm surge models have been implemented and tested, consisting of: refining computational grids, calibrating the model, using a better numerical scheme (i.e. more realistic model physics for air-sea interaction), implementing data assimilation and ensemble model forecasts. This paper addresses the performance comparison between the existing European storm surge models and the recently developed methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory in forecasting storm surge dynamics. The chaotic model is built using adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbours in the reconstructed phase space of observed time series data. The comparison focused on the model accuracy in forecasting a recently extreme storm surge in the North Sea on November 9th, 2007 that hit the coastlines of several European countries. The combination of a high tide, north-westerly winds exceeding 50 mph and low pressure produced an exceptional storm tide. The tidal level was exceeded 3 meters above normal sea levels. Flood warnings were issued for the east coast of Britain and the entire Dutch coast. The Maeslant barrier's two arc-shaped steel doors in the Europe's biggest port of Rotterdam was closed for the first time since its construction in 1997 due to this storm surge. In comparison to the chaotic model performance, the forecast data from several European physically-based storm surge models were provided from: BSH Germany, DMI Denmark, DNMI Norway, KNMI Netherlands and MUMM Belgium. The performance comparison was made over testing datasets for two periods/conditions: non-stormy period (1-Sep-2007 till 14-Oct-2007) and stormy period (15-Oct-2007 till 20-Nov-2007). A scalar chaotic model with optimized parameters was developed by utilizing an hourly training dataset of observations (11-Sep-2005 till 31-Aug-2007). The comparison results indicated the chaotic model yields better forecasts than the existing European storm surge models. The best performance of European storm surge models for non-storm and storm conditions was achieved by KNMI (with Kalman filter data assimilation) and BSH with errors of 8.95cm and 10.92cm, respectively. Whereas the chaotic model can provide 6 and 48 hours forecasts with errors of 3.10cm and 8.55cm for non-storm condition and 5.04cm and 15.21cm for storm condition, respectively. The chaotic model can provide better forecasts primarily due to the fact that the chaotic model forecasting are estimated by local models which model and identify the similar development of storm surges in the past. In practice, the chaotic model can serve as a reliable and accurate model to support decision-makers in operational ship navigation and flood forecasting.

Improving the simulation of convective dust storms in regional-to-global models

EPA Science Inventory

Convective dust storms have significant impacts on atmospheric conditions and air quality and are a major source of dust uplift in summertime. However, regional-to-global models generally do not accurately simulate these storms, a limitation that can be attributed to (1) using a ...

A simplified real time method to forecast semi-enclosed basins storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasquali, D.; Di Risio, M.; De Girolamo, P.

2015-11-01

Semi-enclosed basins are often prone to storm surge events. Indeed, their meteorological exposition, the presence of large continental shelf and their shape can lead to strong sea level set-up. A real time system aimed at forecasting storm surge may be of great help to protect human activities (i.e. to forecast flooding due to storm surge events), to manage ports and to safeguard coasts safety. This paper aims at illustrating a simple method able to forecast storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins in real time. The method is based on a mixed approach in which the results obtained by means of a simplified physics based model with low computational costs are corrected by means of statistical techniques. The proposed method is applied to a point of interest located in the Northern part of the Adriatic Sea. The comparison of forecasted levels against observed values shows the satisfactory reliability of the forecasts.

New dust opacity mapping from Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Terry Z.; Richardson, Mark I.

1993-01-01

Global dust opacity mapping for Mars has been carried forward using the approach described by Martin (1986) for Viking IR Thermal Mapper data. New maps are presented for the period from the beginning of Viking observations, until Ls 210 deg in 1979 (1.36 Mars years). This range includes the second and more extensive planet-encircling dust storm observed by Viking, known as storm 1977b. Improvements in approach result in greater time resolution and smaller noise than in the earlier work. A strong local storm event filled the Hellas basin at Ls 170 deg, prior to the 1977a storm. Dust is retained in equatorial regions following the 1977b storm far longer than in mid-latitudes. Minor dust events appear to raise the opacity in northern high latitudes during northern spring. Additional mapping with high time resolution has been done for the periods of time near the major storm origins in order to search for clues to the mechanism of storm initiation. The first evidence of the start of the 1977b storm is pushed back to Ls 274.2 deg, preceding signs of the storm in images by about 15 hours.

Direct Radiative Effect of Mineral Dust on the Development of African Easterly Wave in Late Summer, 2003-2007

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ma, Po-Lun; Zhang, Kai; Shi, Jainn Jong; Matsui, Toshihisa; Arking, Albert

2012-01-01

Episodic events of both Saharan dust outbreaks and African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are observed to move westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between the warm, dry, and dusty Saharan Air Layer (SAL) on the nearby storms has been the subject of considerable debate. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate the radiative effect of dust on the development of AEWs during August and September, the months of maximum tropical cyclone activity, in years 2003-2007. The simulations show that dust radiative forcing enhances the convective instability of the environment. As a result, most AEWs intensify in the presence of a dust layer. The Lorenz energy cycle analysis reveals that the dust radiative forcing enhances the condensational heating, which elevates the zonal and eddy available potential energy. In turn, available potential energy is effectively converted to eddy kinetic energy, in which local convective overturning plays the primary role. The magnitude of the intensification effect depends on the initial environmental conditions, including moisture, baroclinity, and the depth of the boundary layer. We conclude that dust radiative forcing, albeit small, serves as a catalyst to promote local convection that facilitates AEW development.

Direct Radiative Effect of Mineral Dust on the Development of African Easterly Waves in Late Summer, 2003-07

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Po-Lun; Zhang, Kai; Shi, Jainn Jong

2012-12-19

Episodic events of both Saharan dust outbreaks and African easterly waves (AEWs) are observed to move westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between the warm, dry, and dusty Saharan air layer on the nearby storms has been the subject of considerable debate. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to investigate the radiative effect of dust on the development of AEWs during August and September, the months of maximumtropical cyclone activity, in years 2003–07. The simulations show that dust radiative forcing enhances the convective instability of the environment. As a result, mostAEWsintensify inmore » the presence of a dust layer. The Lorenz energy cycle analysis reveals that the dust radiative forcing enhances the condensational heating, which elevates the zonal and eddy available potential energy. In turn, available potential energy is effectively converted to eddy kinetic energy, in which local convective overturning plays the primary role. The magnitude of the intensification effect depends on the initial environmental conditions, including moisture, baroclinity, and the depth of the boundary layer. The authors conclude that dust radiative forcing, albeit small, serves as a catalyst to promote local convection that facilitates AEW development.« less

Asian dust transportation and fertilizing the coastal and open ocean in the Northern Pacific (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, H.; Xiaohong Yao, Jinhui Shi, Jianhua Qi

2010-12-01

Dust storm carries a large amount of aerosol particles, sweeps continents and exports to oceans. When these aerosol particles deposit in ocean, which provides abundant nutrients such as nitrogen and iron for ocean ecosystem, increases the primary production and induces algae bloom. Asian dust storm generates at a high latitude and a high elevation and is obvious a hemispheric scale phenomenon. Dust sources in East Asia are one of the major dust sources on the earth which contribute to 5%-40% of the global dust release. The regions affected by the Asian dust storm include not only China and Mongolia but also the downwind Korea, Japan, the Pacific Ocean, the west coast of America, even the subarctic region and Europe. The Asian dust storm is obviously a hemispheric scale phenomenon, which has more important impact on the ecosystem in the western Pacific. Asian dust is unique not only in morphology, soil texture, and dust storm activities, but also mixing and capturing anthropogenic air pollutants on the transport pathway. Deposition of Asian dust substantially affects surface biological productivity. To improve understandings of Asian dust and its effect on ocean ecosystem from the coastal sea to open ocean, ADOES (Asian Dust and Ocean EcoSystem) was proposed under the frame of international SOLAS (Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study). A series of studies were performed in high- nutrient low-chlorophyll (HNLC), low-nutrient low-chlorophyll (LNLC) and eutrophication coastal regions of the Pacific Ocean. These studies provided evidence of biotic response to natural iron fertilization caused by Asian dust particles in the subarctic North Pacific and showed that dust storm episodes were significant in the initiation of spring blooms in the East China Sea. On-board incubations on the cruise in a LNLC region of the western Pacific at the southeast of Japan showed different responses of ocean ecosystem to nitrogen and dust fertilization. Correlation of the Asian dust storms with chlorophyll, primary productivity and algae blooms in the coastal seas of China from 1998 to 2008 were also illustrated.

Contribution of dust storms to PM10 levels in an urban arid environment.

PubMed

Krasnov, Helena; Katra, Itzhak; Koutrakis, Petros; Friger, Michael D

2014-01-01

Quantitative information on the contribution of dust storms to atmospheric PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm) levels is still lacking, especially in urban environments with close proximity to dust sources. The main objective of this study was to quantify the contribution of dust storms to PM10 concentrations in a desert urban center, the city of Beer-Sheva, Negev, Israel, during the period of 2001-2012. Toward this end, a background value based on the "dust-free" season was used as a threshold value to identify potentially "dust days." Subsequently, the net contribution of dust storms to PM10 was assessed. During the study period, daily PM10 concentrations ranged from 6 to over 2000 microg/m3. In each year, over 10% of the daily concentrations exceeded the calculated threshold (BVt) of 71 microg/m3. An average daily net contribution of dust to PM10 of 122 microg/m3 was calculated for the entire study period based on this background value. Furthermore, a dust storm intensity parameter (Ai) was used to analyze several storms with very high PM10 contributions (hourly averages of 1000-5197 microg/m3). This analysis revealed that the strongest storms occurred mainly in the last 3 yr of the study. Finally, these findings indicate that this arid urban environment experiences high PM10 levels whose origin lies in both local and regional dust events. The findings indicate that over time, the urban arid environment experiences high PM10 levels whose origin lies in local and regional dust events. It was noticed that the strongest storms have occurred mainly in the last 3 yr. It is believed that environmental changes such as global warming and desertification may lead to an increased air pollution and risk exposure to human health.

Characterization of dustfall in rural and urban sites during three dust storms in northern China, 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Yanli; Qu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Lianyou; Guo, Lanlan; Yang, Yanyan; Hu, Xia; Xiong, Yiying; Zhang, Guoming; Zhao, Mengdi; Liang, Bo; Dai, Jiadong; Zuo, Xiyang; Jia, Qingpan; Zheng, Hao; Han, Xujiao; Zhao, Shoudong; Liu, Qi

2017-10-01

Dust transport and deposition processes are important for understanding the environmental risk of dust storms. This study investigated characteristics of dustfall at two rural sites and four urban sites from dust sources to downwind regions during three dust storms (DS1: March 19-22, DS2: April 24-26, DS3: May 7-10, 2010). Analysis of near-surface instantaneous maximum wind speed and prevailing wind direction revealed the dust storms bursted out from northwestern arid and semiarid regions to eastern China. Microaggregates, angular, subangular, columnar, subrounded, and spherical particles were identified by scanning electron microscope. Dust deposition flux (DDF) during the dust storms was significantly high at sites near sand deserts and sandy land. During DS2, DDF was 25.1, 9.9, 2.3, and 1.5 g m-2 in Jingbian, Shapotou, Lanzhou, and Beijing, respectively. The three dust storms contributed 7.3% of Beijing's annual dustfall in 2010, which suggests anthropogenic dust might contribute the majority of annual dustfall in urban areas. The mass medium diameter of dustfall during DS2 in Shapotou, Jingbian, Lanzhou, and Beijing was 26.1, 9.0, 16.4, and 15.5 μm, respectively. Urban dustfall contained more heavy metals, sulfur and arsenic than rural dustfall. Cadmium contamination was identified in all urban dust particles. Anthropogenic pollutants in combination with mineral dust might lead to complex environmental risk on local, regional, and global scales. China's environmental pollution control should integrate reductions in land desertification and multisource anthropogenic emissions within the context of climate change mitigation.

The case for a southeastern Australian Dust Bowl, 1895-1945

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattle, Stephen R.

2016-06-01

Australia has an anecdotal history of severe wind erosion and dust storm activity, but there has been no lasting public perception of periods of extreme dust storm activity in this country, such as that developed in the USA following the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Newspaper accounts of droughts and dust storms in southeastern (SE) Australia between 1895 and 1945 suggest that, at various times, the scale of these events was comparable to those experienced in the USA Dust Bowl. During this 50-year period, average annual rainfall values in this region were substantially below long-term averages, air temperatures were distinctly warmer, marginal lands were actively cropped and grazed, and rabbits were a burgeoning grazing pest. From the beginning of the Federation Drought of 1895-1902, dust storm activity increased markedly, with the downwind coastal cities of Sydney and Melbourne experiencing dust hazes, dust storms and falls of red rain relatively regularly. Between 1935 and 1945, Sydney and Melbourne received ten and nine long-distance dust events, respectively, with the years of 1938 and 1944/45 being the most intensely dusty. Entire topsoil horizons were blown away, sand drift was extreme, and crops and sheep flocks were destroyed. Although these periods of extreme dust storm activity were not as sustained as those experienced in the USA in the mid-1930s, there is a strong case to support the contention that SE Australia experienced its own extended, somewhat episodic version of a Dust Bowl, with a similar combination of causal factors and landscape effects.

Chemical composition of PM10 and its in vitro toxicological impacts on lung cells during the Middle Eastern Dust (MED) storms in Ahvaz, Iran.

PubMed

Naimabadi, Abolfazl; Ghadiri, Ata; Idani, Esmaeil; Babaei, Ali Akbar; Alavi, Nadali; Shirmardi, Mohammad; Khodadadi, Ali; Marzouni, Mohammad Bagherian; Ankali, Kambiz Ahmadi; Rouhizadeh, Ahmad; Goudarzi, Gholamreza

2016-04-01

Reports on the effects of PM10 from dust storm on lung cells are limited. The main purpose of this study was to investigate the chemical composition and in vitro toxicological impacts of PM10 suspensions, its water-soluble fraction, and the solvent-extractable organics extracted from Middle Eastern Dust storms on the human lung epithelial cell (A549). Samples of dust storms and normal days (PM10 < 200 μg m(-3)) were collected from December 2012 until June 2013 in Ahvaz, the capital of Khuzestan Province in Iran. The chemical composition and cytotoxicity were analyzed by ICP- OES and Lactase Dehydrogenase (LDH) reduction assay, respectively. The results showed that PM10 suspensions, their water-soluble fraction and solvent-extractable organics from both dust storm and normal days caused a decrease in the cell viability and an increase in LDH in supernatant in a dose-response manner. Although samples of normal days showed higher cytotoxicity than those of dust storm at the highest treated dosage, T Test showed no significant difference in cytotoxicity between normal days and dust event days (P value > 0.05). These results led to the conclusions that dust storm PM10 as well as normal day PM10 could lead to cytotoxicity, and the organic compounds (PAHs) and the insoluble particle-core might be the main contributors to cytotoxicity. Our results showed that cytotoxicity and the risk of PM10 to human lung may be more severe during dust storm than normal days due to inhalation of a higher mass concentration of airborne particles. Further research on PM dangerous fractions and the most responsible components to make cytotoxicity in exposed cells is recommended. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Properties of a Martian local dust storm in Atlantis Chaos from OMEGA/MEX data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliva, F.; Geminale, A.; D'Aversa, E.; Altieri, F.; Bellucci, G.; Carrozzo, F. G.; Sindoni, G.; Grassi, D.

2018-01-01

In this study we present the analysis of the dust properties of a local storm imaged in the Atlantis Chaos region on Mars by the OMEGA imaging spectrometer on March 2nd, 2005. We use the radiative transfer model MITRA to study the dust properties at solar wavelengths between 0.5 μm and 2.5 μm and infer the connection between the local storm dynamics and the topography. We retrieve maps of effective grain radius (reff), optical depth at 9.3 μm (τ9.3) and top altitude (ta) of the dust layer. Our results show that large particles (reff = 1.6 μm) are gathered in the centre of the storm (lat = 33.5° S; lon = 183.5° W), where the optical depth is maximum (τ9.3 > 7.0) and the top altitude exceeds 18 km. Outside the storm, we obtain τ9.3<0.2, in agreement with the estimates derived from global climate models (GCM). We speculate that a low thermal inertia region at the western border of Atlantis Chaos is a possible source of the dust storm. Moreover, we find evidence that topography plays a role in confining the local storm in Atlantis Chaos. The vertical wind component from the GCM does not provide any hint for the triggering of dust lifting. On the other hand, the combination of the horizontal and vertical wind profiles suggests that the dust, once lifted, is pushed eastward and then downward and gets confined within the north-east ridge of Atlantis Chaos. From our results, the thickness of the dust layer collapsed on the surface ranges from about 1 μm at the storm boundaries up to more than 100 μm at its centre. We verify that a layer of dust thicker than 1 μm, deposited on the surface, can prevent the detection of mafic absorption features. However, such features are still present in OMEGA data of Atlantis Chaos registered after the storm. Hence, we deduce that, once the storm is over, the dust deposited on an area larger than the one where it has been observed.

Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podladchikova, Tatiana; Petrukovich, Anatoly; Yermolaev, Yuri

2018-04-01

Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011-2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

Martian dust storms witnessed by Viking Lander 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, H. J.; Guinness, R. E. A.

1984-01-01

Viking Lander 1 observations on Mars were punctuated by a strong local dust storm after two martian years of mild wind conditions. Tens of micrometers of dust settled to the surface during global dust storms of the first two falls and winters; some of this dust was locally removed during the second year. A late winter local dust storm of the first year caused little or no erosion of the surface materials despite wind speeds of 25 to 30 m/s. The strong local dust storm occurred during late winter of the third martian year. Winds of this storm altered and demolished small conical piles of surface materials constructed at the onset the first winter, removed 4 to 5 mm size fragments, displaced centimeter size fragments, destroyed clouds in areas disrupted by the sampler and footpad, eroded impact pits, and darkened the sky. Movement of erosional products and tiny wind tails indicate easterly to northeasterly winds. If the 4 to 5 mm size fragments were entrained and removd by the wind, threshold friction speeds near 3 to 5 m/s would have been required for the atmospheric temperatures and pressures that prevailed during the late winter of the third year.

The Association between Dust Storms and Daily Non-Accidental Mortality in the United States, 1993-2005.

PubMed

Crooks, James Lewis; Cascio, Wayne E; Percy, Madelyn S; Reyes, Jeanette; Neas, Lucas M; Hilborn, Elizabeth D

2016-11-01

The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied in the context of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms, but there has been no recent population-level epidemiological research on the dust storms in North America. The relevance of dust storms to public health is likely to increase as extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent with anticipated changes in climate through the 21st century. We examined the association between dust storms and county-level non-accidental mortality in the United States from 1993 through 2005. Dust storm incidence data, including date and approximate location, are taken from the U.S. National Weather Service storm database. County-level mortality data for the years 1993-2005 were acquired from the National Center for Health Statistics. Distributed lag conditional logistic regression models under a time-stratified case-crossover design were used to study the relationship between dust storms and daily mortality counts over the whole United States and in Arizona and California specifically. End points included total non-accidental mortality and three mortality subgroups (cardiovascular, respiratory, and other non-accidental). We estimated that for the United States as a whole, total non-accidental mortality increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.011) and 6.7% (95% CI: 1.1, 12.6; p = 0.018) at 2- and 3-day lags, respectively, and by an average of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.4, 5.1; p = 0.023) over lags 0-5 compared with referent days. Significant associations with non-accidental mortality were estimated for California (lag 2 and 0-5 day) and Arizona (lag 3), for cardiovascular mortality in the United States (lag 2) and Arizona (lag 3), and for other non-accidental mortality in California (lags 1-3 and 0-5). Dust storms are associated with increases in lagged non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. Citation: Crooks JL, Cascio WE, Percy MS, Reyes J, Neas LM, Hilborn ED. 2016. The association between dust storms and daily non-accidental mortality in the United States, 1993-2005. Environ Health Perspect 124:1735-1743; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP216.

Distribution of dust during two dust storms in Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ösp Magnúsdóttir, Agnes; Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Pavla; Arnalds, Ólafur; Ólafsson, Haraldur

2017-04-01

Particulate matter mass concentrations and size fractions of PM1, PM2.5, PM4, PM10, and PM15 measured in transversal horizontal profile of two dust storms in southwestern Iceland are presented. Images from a camera network were used to estimate the visibility and spatial extent of measured dust events. Numerical simulations were used to calculate the total dust flux from the sources as 180,000 and 280,000 tons for each storm. The mean PM15 concentrations inside of the dust plumes varied from 10 to 1600 ?g?m?3 (PM10 = 7 to 583 ?g?m?3). The mean PM1 concentrations were 97-241 ?g?m?3 with a maximum of 261 ?g?m?3 for the first storm. The PM1/PM2.5 ratios of >0.9 and PM1/PM10 ratios of 0.34-0.63 show that suspension of volcanic materials in Iceland causes air pollution with extremely high PM1 concentrations, similar to polluted urban areas in Europe or Asia. Icelandic volcanic dust consists of a higher proportion of submicron particles compared to crustal dust. Both dust storms occurred in relatively densely inhabited areas of Iceland. First results on size partitioning of Icelandic dust presented here should challenge health authorities to enhance research in relation to dust and shows the need for public dust warning systems.

Vulnerability Assessment of Dust Storms in the United States under a Changing Climate Scenario

EPA Science Inventory

Severe weather events, such as flooding, drought, forest fires, and dust storms can have a serious impact on human health. Dust storm events are not well predicted in the United States, however they are expected to become more frequent as global climate warms through the 21st cen...

A History of the Martian Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKim, R. J.

2005-08-01

The author reviews historical observations of Martian dust storms from the earliest telescopic records up to the present day (see R.J.McKim, Telescopic Martian Dust Storms: A Narrative and Catalogue, Memoirs of the British Astronomical Association, volume 44, 1999 (166 pp)). The earliest record begins with Maraldi in 1704. The term ``yellow cloud" was coined by Burton (1879). The first event which attracted much attention was the regional dust storm of 1894 October-November. The first planet-encircling event was that of 1909. The daily evolution of dust storms began to be studied in 1911; photography would not help until 1922. Other milestones in our understanding of the phenomenon are illustrated and explained. The telescopic literature is littered with errors of fact and interpretation, and the author describes some of the pitfalls and successes in the analysis of old telescopic records.

Intensified dust storm activity and Valley fever infection in the southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Daniel Q.; Wang, Julian X. L.; Gill, Thomas E.; Lei, Hang; Wang, Binyu

2017-05-01

Climate models have consistently projected a drying trend in the southwestern United States, aiding speculation of increasing dust storms in this region. Long-term climatology is essential to documenting the dust trend and its response to climate variability. We have reconstructed long-term dust climatology in the western United States, based on a comprehensive dust identification method and continuous aerosol observations from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network. We report here direct evidence of rapid intensification of dust storm activity over American deserts in the past decades (1988-2011), in contrast to reported decreasing trends in Asia and Africa. The frequency of windblown dust storms has increased 240% from 1990s to 2000s. This dust trend is associated with large-scale variations of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, with the strongest correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We further investigate the relationship between dust and Valley fever, a fast-rising infectious disease caused by inhaling soil-dwelling fungus (Coccidioides immitis and C. posadasii) in the southwestern United States. The frequency of dust storms is found to be correlated with Valley fever incidences, with a coefficient (r) comparable to or stronger than that with other factors believed to control the disease in two endemic centers (Maricopa and Pima County, Arizona).

Size and elemental composition of dry-deposited particles during a severe dust storm at a coastal site of Eastern China.

PubMed

Niu, Hongya; Zhang, Daizhou; Hu, Wei; Shi, Jinhui; Li, Ruipeng; Gao, Huiwang; Pian, Wei; Hu, Min

2016-02-01

Dry-deposited particles were collected during the passage of an extremely strong dust storm in March, 2010 at a coastal site in Qingdao (36.15 °N, 120.49 °E), a city located in Eastern China. The size, morphology, and elemental composition of the particles were quantified with a scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray instrument (SEM-EDX). The particles appeared in various shapes, and their size mainly varied from 0.4 to 10 μm, with the mean diameters of 0.5, 1.5, and 1.0 μm before, during, and after the dust storm, respectively. The critical size of the mineral particles settling on the surface in the current case was about 0.3-0.4 μm before the dust storm and about 0.5-0.7 μm during the dust storm. Particles that appeared in high concentration but were smaller than the critical size deposited onto the surface at a small number flux. The elements Al, Si and Mg were frequently detected in all samples, indicating the dominance of mineral particles. The frequency of Al in particles collected before the dust storm was significantly lower than for those collected during and after the dust storm. The frequencies of Cl and Fe did not show obvious changes, while those of S, K and Ca decreased after the dust arrival. These results indicate that the dust particles deposited onto the surface were less influenced by anthropogenic pollutants in terms of particle number. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dust storms and their impact on ocean and human health: dust in Earth's atmosphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Dale W.; Kellog, Christina A.

2004-01-01

Satellite imagery has greatly influenced our understanding of dust activity on a global scale. A number of different satellites such as NASA's Earth-Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Se-viewing Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) acquire daily global-scale data used to produce imagery for monitoring dust storm formation and movement. This global-scale imagery has documented the frequent transmission of dust storm-derived soils through Earth's atmosphere and the magnitude of many of these events. While various research projects have been undertaken to understand this normal planetary process, little has been done to address its impact on ocean and human health. This review will address the ability of dust storms to influence marine microbial population densities and transport of soil-associated toxins and pathogenic microorganisms to marine environments. The implications of dust on ocean and human health in this emerging scientific field will be discussed.

Comments on "Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.

2010-01-01

Considerable attention has been given to the potential negative impacts of the Saharan air layer (SAL) in recent years. Researchers recently raised questions about the negative impacts of Dunion and Velden and other studies in terms of storms that reached at least tropical storm strength and suggested that the SAL was an intrinsic part of the tropical cyclone environment for both storms that weaken after formation and those that intensify. Braun also suggested that several incorrect assumptions underlie many of the studies on the negative impacts of the SAL, including assumptions that most low-to-midlevel dry tropical air is SAL air, that the SAL is dry throughout its depth, and that the proximity of the SAL to storms struggling to intensify implies some role in that struggle. The recent paper by Reale et al.(RL1) is an example of the problems inherent in some of these assumptions. In their paper, RL1 analyze a simulation from the Global Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) global model and describe an extensive tongue of warm, dry air that stretches southward from at least 30 deg N (the northern limit of their plots) and wraps into a low pressure system during the period 26-29 August 2006, suppressing convection and possibly development of the African easterly wave associated with that low pressure system. They attributed the warm, dry tongue to the SAL (i.e., heating of the air mass during passage over the Sahara and radiative warming of the dust layer). Whether it was their intention, the implication is that this entire feature is due solely to the SAL and not to other possible sources of dry air or warmth. In addition, they suggested that a cool tongue of air in the boundary layer located directly beneath the elevated warm, dry tongue (forming a thermal dipole) was possibly the result of reduced solar radiation caused by an overlying dust layer. They stated that "the cool anomaly in the lower levels does not have any plausible explanation relying only on transport." In this comment, evidence from satellite and global meteorological analyses is presented that casts considerable doubt upon RL1 s interpretation of the GEOS-5 forecasts and their conclusion that the results implied a negative role of the SAL. We show that the major portion of the warm, dry air aloft was located in a nearly dust-free slot between two Saharan dust outbreaks, had a significant source from the midlatitudes (>30 N), and was likely driven by strong subsidence warming and drying. In addition, when wind fields are examined in a reference frame moving with the wave, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global meteorological analyses suggest that the cool tongue in the boundary layer can be readily explained by transport of cooler air from higher latitudes. At the very least, it offers a plausible alternative explanation for the cool tongue that does not rely on radiative impacts of the dust.

Use of Satellite and Ground-based Digital Images to Detect and Monitor Dust Storms in the Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, P. S.; MacKinnon, D. J.; Reynolds, R. L.; Velasco, M. G.

2002-12-01

Wind-induced dust emission from sources in the southwestern United States is not a major contributor to global dust flux, but it is important on a regional and national scale because of its effects on air quality, human health and safety, as well as ecosystem dynamics. Integrated remotely sensed satellite, airborne, and ground-based image data have strong potential to detect and monitor active dust storms and map areas vulnerable to wind erosion in the Southwest. Since 1999, high temporal resolution digital images collected by satellite and a ground-based, automated digital camera station have been used to detect, monitor, and analyze the location, size, frequency, duration, and transport patterns of large dust storms in the central Mojave Desert. One of the biggest dust storms of this past decade occurred on April 15, 2002, when at least several million metric tons of dust were emitted from the central Mojave Desert alone. During this storm, geostationary satellite (GOES) images documented the arrival of two very large dust plumes into the Las Vegas Valley, NV, one from a valley about 40 km to the west and the other from a heavily used area about 170 km to the southwest. Large, rapid increases in levels of PM10 (particulate matter less than 10 micrometers) in the Las Vegas area corresponded with the arrival of these plumes, with PM10 values increasing from a range of approximately 100 to 250 micrograms/m3 to 1,100 to 1,500 micrograms/m3 within 30 minutes. Satellite imaging systems currently available cannot detect and monitor dust storms of the size typically generated in the Southwest on an operational basis or be used to produce models for emission-rate predictions. The satellite imaging system on GOES is the only one available having adequate temporal resolution to detect and monitor active dust storms on a routine basis; however, it can only detect very large dust storms because its spatial and spectral resolutions are very low. A satellite imaging system with three to five spectral bands (with adjustable gain settings) and approximately 100 m spatial and 15 to 20 minutes temporal resolutions is needed to effectively monitor southwestern dust storms and events. Such a system would also be useful in other arid regions.

Airborne Dust Monitoring Activities at the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, G.; McNamara, D.; Taylor, J.

2002-12-01

Wind blown dust can be a hazard to transportation, industrial, and military operations, and much work has been devoted to its analysis and prediction from a meteorological viewpoint. The detection and forecasting of dust outbreaks in near real time is difficult, particularly in remote desert areas with sparse observation networks. The Regional Haze Regulation, passed by Congress in 1999, mandates a reduction in man made inputs to haze in 156 Class I areas (national parks and wilderness areas). Studies have demonstrated that satellite data can be useful in detection and tracking of dust storms. Environmental satellites offer frequent coverage of large geographic areas. The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates a system of polar orbiting and geostationary environmental satellites, which sense data in two visible and three infrared channels. Promising results in the detection of airborne dust have been obtained using multispectral techniques to combine information from two or more channels to detect subtle spectral differences. One technique, using a ratio of two thermal channels, detects the presence of airborne dust, and discriminates it from both underlying ground and meteorological clouds. In addition, NESDIS accesses and is investigating for operational use data from several other satellites. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer on board NASA's Earth Probe mission provides an aerosol index product which can detect dust and smoke, and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites provide several channels which can detect aerosols in multispectral channel combinations. NESDIS, in cooperation with NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory, produces a daily smoke transport forecast, combining satellite derived smoke source points with a mathematical transport prediction model; such a scheme could be applied to other aerosol particles such as dust. Techniques effective for the monitoring of airborne dust are used operationally by NESDIS and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction at the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, which monitors the presence of airborne volcanic ash, optically similar to airborne dust.

Investigation of dust storms entering Western Iran using remotely sensed data and synoptic analysis.

PubMed

Boloorani, Ali D; Nabavi, Seyed O; Bahrami, Hosain A; Mirzapour, Fardin; Kavosi, Musa; Abasi, Esmail; Azizi, Rasoul

2014-01-01

One of the natural phenomena which have had considerable impacts on various regions of the world, including Iran, is "dust storm". In recent years, this phenomenon has taken on new dimensions in Iran and has changed from a local problem to a national issue. This study is an attempt to investigate the formation of the dust storms crossing the Western Iran. To find the sources of the dust storms entering Iran, first we examine three determined dust paths in the region and their temporal activities, using MODIS satellite images. Then, four regions were identified as dust sources through soil, land cover and wind data. Finally, atmospheric analyses are implemented to find synoptic patterns inducing dust storms. Source 1 has covered the region between the eastern banks of Euphrates and western banks of Tigris. Source 2 is in desert area of western and south-western Iraq. Finally source 3 is bounded in eastern and south-eastern deserts of Saudi Arabia called Rub-Al-Khali desert, or Empty Quarter. Moreover, south-eastern part of Iraq (source 4) was also determined as a secondary source which thickens the dust masses originating from the above mentioned sources. The study of synoptic circulations suggests that the dust storms originating from source 1 are formed due to the intense pressure gradient between the low-pressure system of Zagros and a high-pressure cell formed on Mediterranean Sea. The dust events in sources 2 and 3 are outcomes of the atmospheric circulations dominant in the cold period of the year in mid-latitudes.

Forecast errors in dust vertical distributions over Rome (Italy): Multiple particle size representation and cloud contributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, P.; Alpert, P.; Shtivelman, A.; Krichak, S. O.; Joseph, J. H.; Kallos, G.; Katsafados, P.; Spyrou, C.; Gobbi, G. P.; Barnaba, F.; Nickovic, S.; PéRez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.

2007-08-01

In this study, forecast errors in dust vertical distributions were analyzed. This was carried out by using quantitative comparisons between dust vertical profiles retrieved from lidar measurements over Rome, Italy, performed from 2001 to 2003, and those predicted by models. Three models were used: the four-particle-size Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM), the older one-particle-size version of the SKIRON model from the University of Athens (UOA), and the pre-2006 one-particle-size Tel Aviv University (TAU) model. SKIRON and DREAM are initialized on a daily basis using the dust concentration from the previous forecast cycle, while the TAU model initialization is based on the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (TOMS AI). The quantitative comparison shows that (1) the use of four-particle-size bins in the dust modeling instead of only one-particle-size bins improves dust forecasts; (2) cloud presence could contribute to noticeable dust forecast errors in SKIRON and DREAM; and (3) as far as the TAU model is concerned, its forecast errors were mainly caused by technical problems with TOMS measurements from the Earth Probe satellite. As a result, dust forecast errors in the TAU model could be significant even under cloudless conditions. The DREAM versus lidar quantitative comparisons at different altitudes show that the model predictions are more accurate in the middle part of dust layers than in the top and bottom parts of dust layers.

The Role of Jet Adjustment Processes in Subtropical Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokharel, Ashok Kumar; Kaplan, Michael L.; Fiedler, Stephanie

2017-11-01

Meso-α/β/γ scale atmospheric processes of jet dynamics responsible for generating Harmattan, Saudi Arabian, and Bodélé Depression dust storms are analyzed with observations and high-resolution modeling. The analysis of the role of jet adjustment processes in each dust storm shows similarities as follows: (1) the presence of a well-organized baroclinic synoptic scale system, (2) cross mountain flows that produced a leeside inversion layer prior to the large-scale dust storm, (3) the presence of thermal wind imbalance in the exit region of the midtropospheric jet streak in the lee of the respective mountains shortly after the time of the inversion formation, (4) dust storm formation accompanied by large magnitude ageostrophic isallobaric low-level winds as part of the meso-β scale adjustment process, (5) substantial low-level turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and (6) emission and uplift of mineral dust in the lee of nearby mountains. The thermally forced meso-γ scale adjustment processes, which occurred in the canyons/small valleys, may have been the cause of numerous observed dust streaks leading to the entry of the dust into the atmosphere due to the presence of significant vertical motion and TKE generation. This study points to the importance of meso-β to meso-γ scale adjustment processes at low atmospheric levels due to an imbalance within the exit region of an upper level jet streak for the formation of severe dust storms. The low level TKE, which is one of the prerequisites to deflate the dust from the surface, cannot be detected with the low resolution data sets; so our results show that a high spatial resolution is required for better representing TKE as a proxy for dust emission.

The Association between Dust Storms and Daily Non-Accidental Mortality in the United States, 1993–2005

PubMed Central

Crooks, James Lewis; Cascio, Wayne E.; Percy, Madelyn S.; Reyes, Jeanette; Neas, Lucas M.; Hilborn, Elizabeth D.

2016-01-01

Background: The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied in the context of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms, but there has been no recent population-level epidemiological research on the dust storms in North America. The relevance of dust storms to public health is likely to increase as extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent with anticipated changes in climate through the 21st century. Objectives: We examined the association between dust storms and county-level non-accidental mortality in the United States from 1993 through 2005. Methods: Dust storm incidence data, including date and approximate location, are taken from the U.S. National Weather Service storm database. County-level mortality data for the years 1993–2005 were acquired from the National Center for Health Statistics. Distributed lag conditional logistic regression models under a time-stratified case-crossover design were used to study the relationship between dust storms and daily mortality counts over the whole United States and in Arizona and California specifically. End points included total non-accidental mortality and three mortality subgroups (cardiovascular, respiratory, and other non-accidental). Results: We estimated that for the United States as a whole, total non-accidental mortality increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.011) and 6.7% (95% CI: 1.1, 12.6; p = 0.018) at 2- and 3-day lags, respectively, and by an average of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.4, 5.1; p = 0.023) over lags 0–5 compared with referent days. Significant associations with non-accidental mortality were estimated for California (lag 2 and 0–5 day) and Arizona (lag 3), for cardiovascular mortality in the United States (lag 2) and Arizona (lag 3), and for other non-accidental mortality in California (lags 1–3 and 0–5). Conclusions: Dust storms are associated with increases in lagged non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. Citation: Crooks JL, Cascio WE, Percy MS, Reyes J, Neas LM, Hilborn ED. 2016. The association between dust storms and daily non-accidental mortality in the United States, 1993–2005. Environ Health Perspect 124:1735–1743; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP216 PMID:27128449

Orbit-spin coupling and the interannual variability of global-scale dust storm occurrence on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirley, James H.; Mischna, Michael A.

2017-05-01

A new physical hypothesis predicts that a weak coupling of the orbital and rotational motions of extended bodies may give rise to a modulation of circulatory flows within their atmospheres. Driven cycles of intensification and relaxation of large-scale circulatory flows are predicted, with the phasing of these changes linked directly to the rate of change of the orbital angular momentum, dL/dt, with respect to inertial frames. We test the hypothesis that global-scale dust storms (GDS) on Mars may occur when periods of circulatory intensification (associated with positive and negative extrema of the dL/dt waveform) coincide with the southern summer dust storm season on Mars. The orbit-spin coupling hypothesis additionally predicts that the intervening 'transitional' periods, which are characterized by the disappearance and subsequent sign change of dL/dt, may be unfavorable for the occurrence of GDS, when they occur during the southern summer dust storm season. These hypotheses are strongly supported by comparisons between calculated dynamical time series of dL/dt and historic observations. All of the nine known global-scale dust storms on Mars took place during Mars years when circulatory intensification during the dust storm season is 'retrodicted' under the orbit-spin coupling hypothesis. None of the historic global-scale dust storms of our catalog occurred during transitional intervals. Orbit-spin coupling appears to play an important role in the excitation of the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation of Mars.

Development of the physics driver in NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, H.; Iredell, M.; Tripp, P.

2016-12-01

As a key component of the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS), a physics driver is developed in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) in order to facilitate the research, development, and transition to operations of innovations in atmospheric physical parameterizations. The physics driver connects the atmospheric dynamic core, the Common Community Physics Package and the other NEMS-based forecast components (land, ocean, sea ice, wave, and space weather). In current global forecasting system, the physics driver has incorporated major existing physics packages including radiation, surface physics, cloud and microphysics, ozone, and stochastic physics. The physics driver is also applicable to external physics packages. The structure adjustment in NEMS by separating the PHYS trunk is to create an open physics package pool. This open platform is beneficial to the enhancement of U.S. weather forecast ability. In addition, with the universal physics driver, the NEMS can also be used for specific functions by connecting external target physics packages through physics driver. The test of its function is to connect a physics dust-radiation model in the system. Then the modified system can be used for dust storm prediction and forecast. The physics driver is also developed into a standalone form. This is to facilitate the development works on physics packages. The developers can save instant fields of meteorology data and snapshots from the running system , and then used them as offline driving data fields to test the new individual physics modules or small modifications to current modules. This prevents the run of whole system for every test.

A simplified Suomi NPP VIIRS dust detection algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yikun; Sun, Lin; Zhu, Jinshan; Wei, Jing; Su, Qinghua; Sun, Wenxiao; Liu, Fangwei; Shu, Meiyan

2017-11-01

Due to the complex characteristics of dust and sparse ground-based monitoring stations, dust monitoring is facing severe challenges, especially in dust storm-prone areas. Aim at constructing a high-precision dust storm detection model, a pixel database, consisted of dusts over a variety of typical feature types such as cloud, vegetation, Gobi and ice/snow, was constructed, and their distributions of reflectance and Brightness Temperatures (BT) were analysed, based on which, a new Simplified Dust Detection Algorithm (SDDA) for the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership Visible infrared Imaging Radiometer (NPP VIIRS) is proposed. NPP VIIRS images covering the northern China and Mongolian regions, where features serious dust storms, were selected to perform the dust detection experiments. The monitoring results were compared with the true colour composite images, and results showed that most of the dust areas can be accurately detected, except for fragmented thin dusts over bright surfaces. The dust ground-based measurements obtained from the Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Process System (MICAPS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument Aerosol Index (OMI AI) products were selected for comparison purposes. Results showed that the dust monitoring results agreed well in the spatial distribution with OMI AI dust products and the MICAPS ground-measured data with an average high accuracy of 83.10%. The SDDA is relatively robust and can realize automatic monitoring for dust storms.

A Conceptual Model of the Severe-Storm Environment for Inclusion into Air Weather Service Severe-Storm Analysis and Forecast Procedures.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-11-16

thunderstorm forecasting , Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 34:250-252. 19. Galway , J.G. (1956) The lifted index as a prediction of latent instability, Bull...downwind, which are geographically related and can be traced through time by a forecaster . In fact, a typical Great Plains severe-storm situation has...weather station setting, only one sounding can be plotted and anal- yzed because of time constraints. Appendix C contains two single-station forecast

Dust Storms: Why Are Dust Storms a Concern?

MedlinePlus

... matter , which can be a serious threat to human health if it accumulates in the respiratory system. Dust ... FIND-NLM National Institutes of Health Department of Health & Human Services Developed by Specialized Information Services, Environmental Health ...

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schemm, J. E.; Long, L.; Baxter, S.

2013-12-01

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long and Stephen Baxter Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Predictability of intraseasonal tropical storm (TS) activities is assessed using the 1999-2010 CFSv2 hindcast suite. Weekly TS activities in the CFSv2 45-day forecasts were determined using the TS detection and tracking method devised by Carmago and Zebiak (2002). The forecast periods are divided into weekly intervals for Week 1 through Week 6, and also the 30-day mean. The TS activities in those intervals are compared to the observed activities based on the NHC HURDAT and JTWC Best Track datasets. The CFSv2 45-day hindcast suite is made of forecast runs initialized at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z every day during the 1999 - 2010 period. For predictability evaluation, forecast TS activities are analyzed based on 20-member ensemble forecasts comprised of 45-day runs made during the most recent 5 days prior to the verification period. The forecast TS activities are evaluated in terms of the number of storms, genesis locations and storm tracks during the weekly periods. The CFSv2 forecasts are shown to have a fair level of skill in predicting the number of storms over the Atlantic Basin with the temporal correlation scores ranging from 0.73 for Week 1 forecasts to 0.63 for Week 6, and the average RMS errors ranging from 0.86 to 1.07 during the 1999-2010 hurricane season. Also, the forecast track density distribution and false alarm statistics are compiled using the hindcast analyses. In real-time applications of the intraseasonal TS activity forecasts, the climatological TS forecast statistics will be used to make the model bias corrections in terms of the storm counts, track distribution and removal of false alarms. An operational implementation of the weekly TS activity prediction is planned for early 2014 to provide an objective input for the CPC's Global Tropical Hazards Outlooks.

Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harriman, Lindsey M.

2014-01-01

With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

Tropical storm redistribution of Saharan dust to the upper troposphere and ocean surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbener, Stephen R.; Saleeby, Stephen M.; Heever, Susan C.; Twohy, Cynthia H.

2016-10-01

As a tropical cyclone traverses the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm will spatially redistribute the dust from the SAL. Dust deposited on the surface may affect ocean fertilization, and dust transported to the upper levels of the troposphere may impact radiative forcing. This study explores the relative amounts of dust that are vertically redistributed when a tropical cyclone crosses the SAL. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was configured to simulate the passage of Tropical Storm Debby (2006) through the SAL. A dust mass budget approach has been applied, enabled by a novel dust mass tracking capability of the model, to determine the amounts of dust deposited on the ocean surface and transferred aloft. The mass of dust removed to the ocean surface was predicted to be nearly 2 orders of magnitude greater than the amount of dust transported to the upper troposphere.

Mars Atmospheric Temperature and Dust Storm Tracking

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-06-09

This graphic overlays Martian atmospheric temperature data as curtains over an image of Mars taken during a regional dust storm. The temperature profiles extend from the surface to about 50 miles (80 kilometers) up. Temperatures are color coded, ranging from minus 243 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 153 degrees Celsius) where coded purple to minus 9 F (minus 23 C) where coded red. The temperature data and global image were both recorded on Oct. 18, 2014, by instruments on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter: Mars Climate Sounder and Mars Color Imager. On that day a regional dust storm was active in the Acidalia Planitia region of northern Mars, at the upper center of this image. A storm from this area in typically travels south and grows into a large regional storm in the southern hemisphere during southern spring. That type of southern-spring storm and two other large regional dust storms repeat as a three-storm series most Martian years. The pattern has been identified from their effects on atmospheric temperature in a layer about 16 miles (25 kilometers) above the surface. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20747

Effect of Dust Storms on the Atmospheric Microbiome in the Eastern Mediterranean.

PubMed

Mazar, Yinon; Cytryn, Eddie; Erel, Yigal; Rudich, Yinon

2016-04-19

We evaluated the impact of Saharan dust storms on the local airborne microbiome in a city in the Eastern Mediterranean area. Samples of particles with diameter less than 10 μm were collected during two spring seasons on both dusty and nondusty days. DNA was extracted, and partial 16S rRNA gene amplicons were sequenced using the Illumina platform. Bioinformatic analysis showed the effect of dust events on the diversity of the atmospheric microbiome. The relative abundance of desert soil-associated bacteria increased during dust events, while the relative abundance of anthropogenic-influenced taxa decreased. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction measurements of selected clinically significant antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) showed that their relative abundance decreased during dust events. The ARG profiles on dust-free days were similar to those in aerosol collected in a poultry house, suggesting a strong agricultural influence on the local ambient profiles. We conclude that dust storms enrich the ambient airborne microbiome with new soil-derived bacteria that disappear as the dust settles, suggesting that the bacteria are transported attached to the dust particles. Dust storms do not seem to be an important vector for transport of probed ARGs.

Increase in dust storm related PM10 concentrations: A time series analysis of 2001-2015.

PubMed

Krasnov, Helena; Katra, Itzhak; Friger, Michael

2016-06-01

Over the last decades, changes in dust storms characteristics have been observed in different parts of the world. The changing frequency of dust storms in the southeastern Mediterranean has led to growing concern regarding atmospheric PM10 levels. A classic time series additive model was used in order to describe and evaluate the changes in PM10 concentrations during dust storm days in different cities in Israel, which is located at the margins of the global dust belt. The analysis revealed variations in the number of dust events and PM10 concentrations during 2001-2015. A significant increase in PM10 concentrations was identified since 2009 in the arid city of Beer Sheva, southern Israel. Average PM10 concentrations during dust days before 2009 were 406, 312, and 364 μg m(-3) (median 337, 269,302) for Beer Sheva, Rehovot (central Israel) and Modi'in (eastern Israel), respectively. After 2009 the average concentrations in these cities during dust storms were 536, 466, and 428 μg m(-3) (median 382, 335, 338), respectively. Regression analysis revealed associations between PM10 variations and seasonality, wind speed, as well as relative humidity. The trends and periodicity are stronger in the southern part of Israel, where higher PM10 concentrations are found. Since 2009 dust events became more extreme with much higher daily and hourly levels. The findings demonstrate that in the arid area variations of dust storms can be quantified easier through PM10 levels over a relatively short time scale of several years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature and dust profiles in Martian dust storm conditions retrieved from Mars Climate Sounder measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleinboehl, A.; Kass, D. M.; Schofield, J. T.; McCleese, D. J.

2013-12-01

Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) is a mid- and far-infrared thermal emission radiometer on board the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. It measures radiances in limb and nadir/on-planet geometry from which vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature, water vapor, dust and condensates can be retrieved in an altitude range from 0 to 80 km and with a vertical resolution of ~5 km. Due to the limb geometry used as the MCS primary observation mode, retrievals in conditions with high aerosol loading are challenging. We have developed several modifications to the MCS retrieval algorithm that will facilitate profile retrievals in high-dust conditions. Key modifications include a retrieval option that uses a surface pressure climatology if a pressure retrieval is not possible in high dust conditions, an extension of aerosol retrievals to higher altitudes, and a correction to the surface temperature climatology. In conditions of a global dust storm, surface temperatures tend to be lower compared to standard conditions. Taking this into account using an adaptive value based on atmospheric opacity leads to improved fits to the radiances measured by MCS and improves the retrieval success rate. We present first results of these improved retrievals during the global dust storm in 2007. Based on the limb opacities observed during the storm, retrievals are typically possible above ~30 km altitude. Temperatures around 240 K are observed in the middle atmosphere at mid- and high southern latitudes after the onset of the storm. Dust appears to be nearly homogeneously mixed at lower altitudes. Significant dust opacities are detected at least up to 70 km altitude. During much of the storm, in particular at higher altitudes, the retrieved dust profiles closely resemble a Conrath-profile.

Atmospheric Dynamics of Sub-Tropical Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokharel, Ashok Kumar

Meso-alpha/beta scale observational and meso-beta/gamma scale numerical model analyses were performed to study the atmospheric dynamics responsible for generating Harmattan, Saudi Arabian, and Bodele Depression dust storms. For each dust storm case study, MERRA reanalysis datasets, WRF simulated very high resolution datasets, MODIS/Aqua and Terra images, EUMETSAT images, NAAPS aerosol modelling plots, CALIPSO images, surface observations, and rawinsonde soundings were analyzed. The analysis of each dust storm carried out separately and an in-depth comparison of the events shows some similarities among the three case studies: (1) the presence of a well-organized baroclinic synoptic scale system, (2) small scale dust emission events which occurred prior to the formation of the primary large-scale dust storms, (3) cross mountain flows which produced a strong leeside inversion layer prior to the large scale dust storm, (4) the presence of thermal wind imbalance in the exit region of the mid-tropospheric jet streak in the lee of the mountains shortly after the time of the inversion formation, (5) major dust storm formation was accompanied by large magnitude ageostrophic isallobaric low-level winds as part of the meso-beta scale adjustment process, (6) substantial low-level turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), (7) formation in the lee of nearby mountains, and (8) the emission of the dust occurred initially in narrow meso-beta scale zones parallel to the mountains, and later reached the meso-alpha scale when suspended dust was transported away from the mountains. In addition to this there were additional meso-beta scale and meso-gamma scale adjustment processes resulting in Kelvin waves in the Harmattan and the Bodele Depression cases and the thermally-forced MPS circulation in all of these three cases. The Kelvin wave preceded a cold pool accompanying the air behind the large scale cold front instrumental in the major dust storm. The Kelvin wave organized the major dust storm in a narrow zone parallel to the mountains before it expanded upscale. The thermally-forced meos-gamma scale adjustment processes, which occurred in the canyons/small valleys, resulted in the numerous dust streaks leading to the entry of the dust into the atmosphere due to the presence of significant vertical motion and the TKE generation. This indicates that there were meso-beta to meso-gamma scale adjustment processes at the lower levels after the imbalance within the exit region of the upper level jet streaks and these processes were responsible for causing the large scale dust storms. Most notably, the sub-tropical jet streak caused the dust storm nearer to the equatorial region after its interaction with the thermally perturbed air mass on the lee of the Tibesti Mountains in the Bodele case study, which is different than the two other cases where the polar jet streaks played this same role at higher latitudes. This represents an original finding. Additionally, a climatological analysis of 15 years (1997-2011) of dust events over the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) in the desert of Southern California was performed to evaluate how the extratropical systems influenced the cause of dust storms over this region. This study indicates that dust events were associated with the development of a deep convective boundary layer, turbulent kinetic energy ≥3 J/kg, a lapse rate between dry adiabatic and moist adiabatic, wind speed above the frictional threshold wind speed necessary to ablate dust from the surface (≥7.3m/s), above the surface the presence of a cold trough, and strong cyclonic jet. These processes are similar in many ways to the dynamics in the other subtropical case studies. This also indicated that the annual mean number of dust events, their mean duration, and the unit duration per number of event were positively correlated with each of the visibility ranges, when binned for <11.2km, <8km, <4.8km, <1.6km, and <1km. The percentage of the dust events by season show that most of the dust events occurred in autumn (44.7%), followed by spring (38.3%) and equally in summer and winter with these seasons each accounting for 8.5% of events.

Some Coolness on Martian Global Warming and Reflections on the Role of Surface Dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, M. I.; Vasavada, A. R.

2007-12-01

Recent comparisons of global snap-shots of Mars' surface taken by the Viking and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) cameras have been used to suggest that Mars has darkened, and hence has warmed, between the 1970's and 1990's. While this conclusion is not supported by more quantitative analysis of albedo data, the idea of Martian darkening and warming has found its way into the terrestrial climate change debate. Through blogs and other opinion pieces it has been used, both amusingly and disturbingly, to argue that Mars' apparent natural warming should alleviate our concerns about anthropomorphic climate change on Earth. Relating planetary research results to terrestrial analogs is instructive and promotes public understanding, but this example provides a cautionary tale of misinterpretation in this age of politicized science. The dust cycle is the dominant short-term component of the Martian climate. The atmosphere is strongly forced via dust's modification of atmospheric radiative heating rates, while dust loading displays dramatic interannual variability, from background opacity to aperiodic global dust storms. Until recently, the atmospheric component of the dust cycle was better documented than the surface component (which on Mars can be gauged via albedo). But now thanks to the combination of regional imaging, spot thermal infrared spectra, and spot short-wavelength photometry sampled at synoptic time and length scales by MGS, a rich new view of the relationship between specific meteorological phenomena and the patterns of surface dust is emerging. Seasonal cap winds, local, regional, and global dust storms, and monsoonal circulations all redistribute surface dust on large spatial scales, while dust devils are surprisingly shown to be insignificant. Rapid and widespread albedo modification is accomplished by storms that darken relatively bright regions through dust removal, and deposit dust upon largely dust free areas, brightening them. (It is not possible with existing data to infer dust deposition or erosion in perennially dusty areas.) However, most of the dust deposited on darker regions is removed within one Martian year. This rapid cleaning suggests that darker areas retain their dust-free albedo over decadal time scales because any dust deposited there can be eroded at commonly experienced wind speeds. Bright regions recover more slowly, sometimes requiring several martian years. The depletion of these dust sources in some years may play an important role in the interannual variability in dust storm occurrence and intensity by introducing a multiyear "memory" into the system. The observation of the 2001 global storm and its wake allows predictions to be made for the recovery following the 2007 global storm: the southern hemisphere should retain a transient brightening until after the seasonal cap has advanced and retreated. The MGS data show that albedo is a dynamic and evolving meteorologically and climatologically active variable, not a static boundary condition. Overall, the major story that albedo has to tell is one of major dust storms and recovery from them - not of secular changes - and that the changes are mostly cyclic such that surfaces tend to return to their pre-storm albedos. We speculate that this system of fine balances is dynamically controlled, such that interannual occurrence of dust storms and the partial dust coating of the surface should be robust against the expected large changes of orbital parameters throughout Martian geological history.

The probability forecast evaluation of hazard and storm wind over the territories of Russia and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perekhodtseva, E. V.

2012-04-01

The results of the probability forecast methods of summer storm and hazard wind over territories of Russia and Europe are submitted at this paper. These methods use the hydrodynamic-statistical model of these phenomena. The statistical model was developed for the recognition of the situation involving these phenomena. For this perhaps the samples of the values of atmospheric parameters (n=40) for the presence and for the absence of these phenomena of storm and hazard wind were accumulated. The compressing of the predictors space without the information losses was obtained by special algorithm (k=7<19m/s, the values of 65%24m/s, the values of 75%29m/s or the area of the tornado and strong squalls. The evaluation of this probability forecast was provided by criterion of Brayer. The estimation was successful and was equal for the European part of Russia B=0,37. The application of the probability forecast of storm and hazard winds allows to mitigate the economic losses when the errors of the first and second kinds of storm wind categorical forecast are not so small. A lot of examples of the storm wind probability forecast are submitted at this report.

Forecast of geomagnetic storms using CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Y.; Lee, J.; Jang, S.; Na, H.; Lee, J.

2013-12-01

Intense geomagnetic storms are caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun and their forecast is quite important in protecting space- and ground-based technological systems. The onset and strength of geomagnetic storms depend on the kinematic and magnetic properties of CMEs. Current forecast techniques mostly use solar wind in-situ measurements that provide only a short lead time. On the other hand, techniques using CME observations near the Sun have the potential to provide 1-3 days of lead time before the storm occurs. Therefore, one of the challenging issues is to forecast interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) southward components and hence geomagnetic storm strength with a lead-time on the order of 1-3 days. We are going to answer the following three questions: (1) when does a CME arrive at the Earth? (2) what is the probability that a CME can induce a geomagnetic storm? and (3) how strong is the storm? To address the first question, we forecast the arrival time and other physical parameters of CMEs at the Earth using the WSA-ENLIL model with three CME cone types. The second question is answered by examining the geoeffective and non-geoeffective CMEs depending on CME observations (speed, source location, earthward direction, magnetic field orientation, and cone-model output). The third question is addressed by examining the relationship between CME parameters and geomagnetic indices (or IMF southward component). The forecast method will be developed with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the physics-based models.

Dust, Climate, and Human Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

Air pollution from both natural and anthropogenic causes is considered to be one of the most serious world-wide environment-related health problems, and is expected to become worse with changes in the global climate. Dust storms from the atmospheric transport of desert soil dust that has been lifted and carried by the winds - often over significant distances - have become an increasingly important emerging air quality issue for many populations. Recent studies have shown that the dust storms can cause significant health impacts from the dust itself as well as the accompanying pollutants, pesticides, metals, salt, plant debris, and other inorganic and organic materials, including viable microorganisms (bacteria, viruses and fungi). For example, thousands of tons of Asian desert sediments, some containing pesticides and herbicides from farming regions, are commonly transported into the Arctic during dust storm events. These chemicals have been identified in animal and human tissues among Arctic indigenous populations. Millions of tons of airborne desert dust are being tracked by satellite imagery, which clearly shows the magnitude as well as the temporal and spatial variability of dust storms across the "dust belt" regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and China. Ths paper summarizes the most recent findings on the effects of airborne desert dust on human health as well as potential climate influences on dust and health.

Dust, Climate, and Human Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

Air pollution from both natural and anthropogenic causes is considered to be one of the most serious world-wide environment-related health problems, and is expected to become worse with changes in the global climate. Dust storms from the atmospheric transport of desert soil dust that has been lifted and carried by the winds - often over significant distances - have become an increasingly important emerging air quality issue for many populations. Recent studies have shown that the dust storms can cause significant health impacts from the dust itself as well as the accompanying pollutants, pesticides, metals, salt, plant debris, and other inorganic and organic materials, including viable microorganisms (bacteria, viruses and fungi). For example, thousands of tons of Asian desert sediments, some containing pesticides and herbicides from farming regions, are commonly transported into the Arctic during dust storm events. These chemicals have been identified in animal and human tissues among Arctic indigenous populations. Millions of tons of airborne desert dust are being tracked by satellite imagery, which clearly shows the magnitude as well as the temporal and spatial variability of dust storms across the "dust belt" regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and China. This paper summarizes the most recent findings on the effects of airborne desert dust on human health as well as potential climate influences on dust and health.

Dust, Climate, and Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maynard, N. G.

2003-12-01

Air pollution from both natural and anthropogenic causes is considered to be one of the most serious world-wide environment-related health problems, and is expected to become worse with changes in the global climate. Dust storms from the atmospheric transport of desert soil dust that has been lifted and carried by the winds - often over significant distances - have become an increasingly important emerging air quality issue for many populations. Recent studies have shown that the dust storms can cause significant health impacts from the dust itself as well as the accompanying pollutants, pesticides, metals, salt, plant debris, and other inorganic and organic materials, including viable microorganisms (bacteria, viruses and fungi). For example, thousands of tons of Asian desert sediments, some containing pesticides and herbicides from farming regions, are commonly transported into the Arctic during dust storm events. These chemicals have been identified in animal and human tissues among Arctic indigenous populations. Millions of tons of airborne desert dust are being tracked by satellite imagery, which clearly shows the magnitude as well as the temporal and spatial variability of dust storms across the "dust belt" regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and China. This paper summarizes the most recent findings on the effects of airborne desert dust on human health as well as potential climate influences on dust and health

Middle East Health and Air Quality Utilizing NASA EOS in the Saharan and Arabian Deserts to Examine Dust Particle Size and Mineralogy of Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeton, Tiffany; Barrick, Bradley; Cooksey, Kirstin; Cowart, Kevin; Florence, Victoria; Herdy, Claire; Padgett-Vasquez, Steve; Luvall, Jeffrey; Molthan, Andrew

2012-01-01

Ground-based studies conducted in Iraq have revealed the presence of potential human pathogens in airborne dust. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), airborne particulate matter below 2.5micron (PM2.5) can cause long-term damage to the human respiratory system. NASA fs Earth Observing System (EOS) can be used to determine spectral characteristics of dust particles and dust particle sizes. Comparing dust particle size from the Sahara and Arabian Deserts gives insight into the composition and atmospheric transport characteristics of dust from each desert. With the use of NASA SeaWiFS DeepBlue Aerosol, dust particle sizes were estimated using Angstrom Exponent. Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) equation was used to determine the area of the dust storm. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra satellite was utilized in calculating BTD. Mineral composition of a dust storm that occurred 17 April 2008 near Baghdad was determined using imaging spectrometer data from the JPL Spectral Library and EO-1 Hyperion data. Mineralogy of this dust storm was subsequently compared to that of a dust storm that occurred over the Bodele Depression in the Sahara Desert on 7 June 2003.

Airborne dust absorption by semi-arid forests reduces PM pollution in nearby urban environments.

PubMed

Uni, Daphna; Katra, Itzhak

2017-11-15

Dust storms are a major source of global atmospheric particulate matter (PM), having significant impacts on air pollution and human health. During dust storms, daily averages of atmospheric PM concentrations can reach high levels above the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline for air quality. The objective of this study was to explore the impact of forests on PM distribution following dust events in a region that is subjected to frequent dust storms (Northern Negev, Israel). Dust was measured in a forest transect including urban environments that are nearby the forest and at a distal location. During a background period, without dust events, the forest with its surrounding areas were characterized by lower monthly average of PM concentrations (38μg/m 3 ) compared with areas that are not affected by the forest (54μg/m 3 ). Such difference can be meaningful for long-term human health exposure. A reduction in PM levels in the forest transect was evident at most measured dust events, depending on the storm intensity and the locations of the protected areas. A significant reduction in PM 2.5 /PM 10 during dust events, indicates the high efficiency of the forest trees to absorb airborne PM 2.5 . Analysis of dust particles absorbed on the foliage revealed a total dust deposits of 8.1-9.2g/m 2 , which is equal to a minimum of 418.2tons removed from the atmosphere per a forest foliage area (30km 2 ). The findings can support environmental strategies to enhance life quality in regions that are subjected to dust storms, or under potential risk of dust-related PM due to land use and/or climate changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increasing cardiopulmonary emergency visits by long-range transported Asian dust storms in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chan, Chang-Chuan; Chuang, Kai-Jen; Chen, Wen-Jone; Chang, Wei-Tien; Lee, Chung-Te; Peng, Chi-Ming

2008-03-01

This study aims to explore whether Asian dust storms can affect health after 4000 km long-range transport from their origins to downwind areas. Asian dust storms reaching Taipei, Taiwan are tracked by satellite images and confirmed by backward trajectory analysis and ground air pollution monitoring between 1995 and 2002. Our outcome variables include emergency visits for ischaemic heart diseases (ICD-9-CM 410-411, 414), cerebrovascular diseases (ICD-9-CM 430-437), and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) (ICD-9-CM 493, 496) from the National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH). We use simple paired t-test and Poisson regression models to compare difference in emergency visits, air pollution levels and meteorological conditions for the pairs of Asian dust events and pre-dust periods. There were 39 high dust events with PM(10) greater than 90 microg/m(3) and another 46 low dust events with PM(10) less than 90 microg/m(3). Compared to their pre-dust periods, PM(10) concentrations are significantly increased by 77 microg/m(3) per event for the high dust events. Asian dust storms increase cardiopulmonary emergency visits during storm-affecting periods in Taipei when ambient PM(10) concentrations are above 90 microg/m(3). Compared to their pre-dust periods, emergency visits for ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and COPD during high dust events are increased by 0.7 case (35%), 0.7 case (20%), and 0.9 case (20%) per event, respectively, by paired t-tests. By comparing the model-predicted to the observed emergency visits, we find emergency visits for cardiovascular diseases (ICD-9-CM 410-411, 414, 430-437) were significantly increased by 2.9 cases (67%) per event for the 39 high Asian dust events.

A thorough analysis of a severe dust storm in the Arabian Peninsula using WRF-CHEM, satellite imagery, and ground observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagulian, F.; Ghebreyesus, D. T.; Weston, M.; Krishnan, V.; Temimi, M.; Al Hammadi, F.; Al Abdooli, A.

2017-12-01

A strong dust event occurred over the Arabian Peninsula from 1 to 3 April 2015. The event impacted the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on 2 April 2015 in the form of a dust storm. The origin and synopsis of the event is investigated in this study together with its impact on Air Quality in the UAE. The Weather Research Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) was run for the dates of the dust event. Outputs of the model were assessed against ground measurements of Particulate Matter (PM10) from monitoring stations in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), meteorological data, and the Aerosol Optical Depth from the new 1 km Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm for MODIS Terra and Aqua at 0.55 mm. Data from the geo-stationary satellite MSG SEVIRI was used to track the extent and the trajectory of the dust event across the Arabian Peninsula. This was supported by HYSPLIT back trajectory analysis simulated on hourly basis. The modeled results favorably agreed with ground observations of meteorological parameters at several monitoring stations in the UAE. On 2 and 3 April 2015, measurements and WRF-Chem simulations over the UAE showed northwest wind blowing within the range of 11-14 m s-1. Average surface temperature decreased from 33 to 26 ºC and the average radiance dropped by 50% during the peak time of the dust event with consequent reduction of the observed visibility down to 200 m in some UAE's cities. At local level, comparisons between modeled and estimated PM10 concentrations from monitoring stations and satellite data were somewhat biased by the saturated values recorded during the peak time of the dust event on 2 April 2015 with modeled lower limit average PM10 concentrations of 432 mg/m3 that were 25% lower than the ones from monitoring stations. On regional scale, the WRF-Chem model was able to estimate an upper limit values of PM10 concentrations during the dust event.

Human Mars Mission Overview and Dust Storm Impacts on Site Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, S. J.

2017-06-01

This presentation briefly reviews NASA's current approach to human exploration of Mars and key features placed on locations (referred to as Exploration Zones) for these activities. Impacts of dust and dust storms on selecting an EZ are discussed.

Characterization of dust activity from Martian Year (MY) 27 to MY 32 observed by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer aboard the Mars Express spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolkenberg, Paulina; Giuranna, Marco; Aoki, Shohei; Scaccabarozzi, Diego; Saggin, Bortolino; Formisano, Vittorio

2016-04-01

More than 2,500,000 spectra have been collected by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer aboard Mars Express spacecraft after 12 years of activity. The data span more than six Martian years, from MY26, Ls = 331°, to MY 33, Ls = 78°. This huge dataset has been used to build a new database of atmospheric parameters, including atmospheric and surface temperatures, and dust and water ice opacity. Dust aerosols suspended in the atmosphere affect its thermal structure and are a major driver of the circulation. They are always present in the Martian atmosphere, but the amount varies greatly depending on location and season. We analyze dust opacities at 1075 cm-1 retrieved from the PFS long-wavelength channel spectra to characterize the dust activity on Mars for the relevant period. The dust storm season (Ls= 185° - 310°) is monitored for each Martian year. All dust observations show a seasonal pattern, which is ruled by the occurrence of regional and/or global dust storms. Regional dust storms are observed every year, while a planet encircling dust storm occurred in MY 28, when the highest values of dust opacity are also observed (~ 2.45). We characterize the spatial and temporal evolution of these regional and global dust events and investigate the effect of dust on surface and atmospheric temperatures.

A new short-term forecasting model for the total electron content storm time disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsagouri, Ioanna; Koutroumbas, Konstantinos; Elias, Panagiotis

2018-06-01

This paper aims to introduce a new model for the short-term forecast of the vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC). The basic idea of the proposed model lies on the concept of the Solar Wind driven autoregressive model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF). In its original version, the model is operationally implemented in the DIAS system (http://dias.space.noa.gr) and provides alerts and warnings for upcoming ionospheric disturbances, as well as single site and regional forecasts of the foF2 critical frequency over Europe up to 24 h in advance. The forecasts are driven by the real time assessment of the solar wind conditions at ACE location. The comparative analysis of the variations in foF2 and vTEC during eleven geomagnetic storm events that occurred in the present solar cycle 24 reveals similarities but also differences in the storm-time response of the two characteristics with respect to the local time and the latitude of the observation point. Since the aforementioned dependences drive the storm-time forecasts of the SWIF model, the results obtained here support the upgrade of the SWIF's modeling technique in forecasting the storm-time vTEC variation from its onset to full development and recovery. According to the proposed approach, the vTEC storm-time response can be forecasted from 1 to 12-13 h before its onset, depending on the local time of the observation point at storm onset at L1. Preliminary results on the assessment of the performance of the proposed model and further considerations on its potential implementation in operational mode are also discussed.

Aeolian Environments of Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnalds, Olafur; Olafsson, Haraldur; Dagsson Waldhauserová, Pavla

2017-04-01

Iceland has the largest area of volcaniclastic sandy desert on Earth or 22,000 km2. The sand has been mostly produced by glacio-fluvial processes, leaving behind fine-grained unstable sediments which are later re-distributed by repeated aeolian events. Volcanic eruptions add to this pool of unstable sediments, often from subglacial eruptions. Icelandic desert surfaces are divided into sand fields, sandy lavas and sandy lag gravel, each with separate aeolian surface characteristics such as threshold velocities. Storms are frequent due to Iceland's location on the North Atlantic Storm track. Dry winds occur on the leeward sides of mountains and glaciers, in spite of the high moisture content of the Atlantic cyclones. Surface winds often move hundreds to more than 1000 kg m-1 per annum, and more than 10,000 kg m-1 have been measured in a single storm. Desertification occurs when aeolian processes push sand fronts and have thus destroyed many previously fully vegetated ecosystems since the time of the settlement of Iceland in the late ninth century. There are about 135 dust events per annum, ranging from minor storms to >300,000 t of dust emitted in single storms. Dust can be generated from all the major sandy areas of Iceland; however the amount of finer particles that become dust varies with the surfaces. There are areas that produce more dust by far compared to the general sandy deserts; they have therefore been termed "dust plume areas" or "dust hot-spots". They are characterized by repeated charging of fine sediments with a relatively high proportion of finer (silty) materials which, upon repeated wind erosion become sorted downwind from the sources with loss of silt (dust) and an increasing saltation component (sand). Dust production is on the order of 30-40 million tons annually, some travelling over 1000 km and deposited on land and sea. Dust deposited on deserts tends to be re-suspended during subsequent storms. High PM10 concentrations occur during major dust storms. They are more frequent in the wake of volcanic eruptions, such as after the Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruption. Airborne dust affects human health, with negative effects enhanced by the tubular morphology of the grains, and the basaltic composition with its high metal content. Dust deposition on snow and glaciers intensifies melting. Moreover, the dust production probably also influences atmospheric conditions and parameters that affect climate change.

Calipso recordings and monitoring dust storms over the open seas in south of the iran plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalesifard, Hamid R.; Bayat, Farizeh

2018-04-01

Open seas in the south of the Iran plateau are under the influence of heavy dust storms which are originating either from the Tigris and Euphrates basin, the Arabian Peninsula or Hamoun lake. We have used the recordings of the CALIPSO satellite to investigate the seasonal variations as well as the origins of the dust storms over the region. CALIPSO data set shows dust activities are frequent during May to September in the interested region and the Hamoun lake has considerable impacts on it.

Application of wind-profiling radar data to the analysis of dust weather in the Taklimakan Desert.

PubMed

Wang, Minzhong; Wei, Wenshou; Ruan, Zheng; He, Qing; Ge, Runsheng

2013-06-01

The Urumqi Institute of Desert Meteorology of the China Meteorological Administration carried out an atmospheric scientific experiment to detect dust weather using a wind-profiling radar in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert in April 2010. Based on the wind-profiling data obtained from this experiment, this paper seeks to (a) analyze the characteristics of the horizontal wind field and vertical velocity of a breaking dust weather in a desert hinterland; (b) calculate and give the radar echo intensity and vertical distribution of a dust storm, blowing sand, and floating dust weather; and (c) discuss the atmosphere dust counts/concentration derived from the wind-profiling radar data. Studies show that: (a) A wind-profiling radar is an upper-air atmospheric remote sensing system that effectively detects and monitors dust. It captures the beginning and ending of a dust weather process as well as monitors the sand and dust being transported in the air in terms of height, thickness, and vertical intensity. (b) The echo intensity of a blowing sand and dust storm weather episode in Taklimakan is about -1~10 dBZ while that of floating dust -1~-15 dBZ, indicating that the dust echo intensity is significantly weaker than that of precipitation but stronger than that of clear air. (c) The vertical shear of horizontal wind and the maintenance of low-level east wind are usually dynamic factors causing a dust weather process in Taklimakan. The moment that the low-level horizontal wind field finds a shear over time, it often coincides with the onset of a sand blowing and dust storm weather process. (d) When a blowing sand or dust storm weather event occurs, the atmospheric vertical velocity tends to be of upward motion. This vertical upward movement of the atmosphere supported with a fast horizontal wind and a dry underlying surface carries dust particles from the ground up to the air to form blown sand or a dust storm.

Interannual Variability in Global Dust Storm Initiation on Mars from a GCM with Orbit-Spin Coupling and Active Dust Lifting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mischna, M.; Shirley, J. H.; Newman, C. E.

2016-12-01

To first order, the occurrence and interannual variability of global dust storms (GDS) on Mars is attributable to two factors: the annual cycle of solar insolation (which delineates a specific `dust storm season'), and the changing spatial distribution and availability of dust at the surface. Recent work has now found a remarkable correspondence between the occurrence of GDS on Mars and years in which the orbital angular momentum of Mars is increasing during the dust storm season. A previously undefined acceleration term `couples' this orbital motion to the rotational motion of the planet and atmosphere, and small but persistent atmospheric accelerations (so-called `coupling term accelerations,' or CTA) change the atmospheric circulation in such a way as to seemingly be favorable to storm development. This becomes a third factor, then, that may regulate the occurrence and variability of GDS. Our prior work with the MarsWRF general circulation model (GCM) was performed either with no atmospheric dust, or with simplified, prescribed dust distributions, and illustrated the dual roles of both insolation and CTA on GDS variability. Recent advances in the MarsWRF GCM dust prescription can now tackle the remaining unaddressed factor: the role of dust availability in controlling the initiation of GDS. Simulations with both infinite and finite global sources of dust have been performed. For a prescribed dust lifting threshold, surface dust is removed from the surface, preferentially from locations with larger surface stress values, transported in the atmosphere and deposited at a later time. Compared to simulations without CTA, those with CTA show more realism in the variability of timing and magnitude of atmospheric dustiness during the dust storm season. For infinite surface dust, the primary dust lifting (peak wind stress) regions are spatially restricted, and year-to-year changes are largely due to variations in the CTA at these few locations. By contrast, in simulations with finite surface dust, the peak stress regions are rapidly exhausted, leading to a far greater distribution of primary dust lifting regions; hence, variations in the CTA over a wider area contribute to the interannual variability of GDS. Results from our suite of simulations will be shown, vis-à-vis the historical record of GDS on Mars.

Prenatal exposure to sand and dust storms and children's cognitive function in China: a quasi-experimental study.

PubMed

Li, Zhihui; Chen, Lincoln; Li, Mingqiang; Cohen, Jessica

2018-05-01

While there is evidence that sand and dust storms can have adverse health effects, the effects of such storms on children's cognitive function has not been explored. We examined whether prenatal exposure to sand and dust storms affects children's cognitive function and, if so, whether harmful effects of sand and dust storms vary by the trimester of exposure. This study used nationally representative data from the China Family Panel Studies between 2010 and 2014 and data on sand and dust storms from the national Sand and Dust Weather Almanac. We selected four indicators of children's cognitive function: mathematics test scores, word-recognition test scores, the age the child began speaking in whole sentences, and the age the child began counting from one to ten. Since the annual incidence of sand and dust storms is highly variable and is largely unpredictable, we used a region-and-year fixed-effect model to compare the cognitive function of children born in the same region and year but with varying amounts of prenatal exposure to sand and dust storms. We also investigated whether the effect of sand and dust storms varied by the specific month of prenatal exposure. We included 1236 observations for the analysis of mathematics and word-recognition test scores, 2693 observations in the analysis of the age the child began speaking in whole sentences, and 1951 observations for the analysis of the age the child began counting from one to ten. Every 10 additional days of prenatal exposure to sand and dust storms was associated with a 0·20 SD (95% CI 0·06 to 0·35, p=0·009) reduction in word test scores, 0·04 (-0·00 to 0·09, p=0·089) additional months to begin speaking in sentences, and 0·14 (0·03 to 0·25, p=0·021) additional months to begin counting, but was not significantly associated with mathematics test scores (reduction of 0·02 SD, -0·19 to 0·15). 10 additional days of prenatal exposure to sand and dust storms in the seventh gestational month was associated with a 0·18 SD (0·10 to 0·25) reduction in mathematics test scores, a 0·34 SD (0·18 to 0·50) reduction in word test scores, an additional 0·33 months (0·07 to 0·59) to begin speaking in sentences, and an additional 0·20 months (0·04 to 0·35) to begin counting. Our results suggest that protecting pregnant women from the effects of sand and dust storms in the critical periods of fetal brain development could generate benefits for the cognitive function of the next generation. None. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Inside the Belly of a Mars Dust Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafkin, Scot; Pla-Garcia, Jorge

2017-04-01

There have never been in situ observations at or near the active lifting center of a regional dust storm on Mars. Landed meteorological packages have recorded the atmospheric environment during large and global dust storms, but only at a distance from the presumed active areas. In the absence of in situ data, it is common to employ numerical models to provide guidance on the physical processes and conditions operating in an unobserved location or weather system. This is a reasonable approach assuming the model has been adequately validated at other locations. Consequently, the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is employed to study the structure and dynamics of a simulated large regional storm in the Isidis Basin area, and to provide the first ever glimpse of the conditions that might occur inside one of these storms. The simulation has five grids, and dust lifting is permitted only on grids three through five. Limiting the dust lifting to the three highest resolution grids forces the model to produce a dust storm no larger than the size of the third grid domain. The simulation is run for a total of five sols with the simulations starting at 0500 (local time). Dust lifting is activated at 0500 local on the second sol, and continues through sol 3. Lifting is deactivated on sol 4 in order to force dust storm decay. The simulated storm shows extremely complex structure, highly heterogenous lifting centers, and a variety of deep dust transport circulations. The active lifting centers show broader organization into a mesoscale system in much the same way that thunderstorms on Earth can organize into mesoscale convective structures. In many of the active dust plumes, the mixing ratio of dust peaks near the surface and drops off with height. The surface mixing ratio maximum is partly due to the surface being the source of dust, with entrainment of less dusty air as the plume rises. However, it is also because the mixing ratio can be dominated by a few large dust aerosol, since the mass is proportional to the cubed of the radius. Once lifted, the largest dust tends to sediment out while the smaller dust continues to be advected upward by the plume. This size-sorting process tends to drive the mixing ratio profile to a maximum near the surface. In dusty plumes near the surface, the air temperature is as much as 20K colder than nearby areas. This is due to solar absorption higher in the dust column limiting direct heating deeper into the atmosphere. Overall, within the plume, there is an inversion, and although the top of the plume is warmer than below, it is near neutral buoyancy compared to the less dusty air on either side. Apparently, adiabatic cooling nearly offsets the expected positive heating perturbation at the top of the dusty plume. A very strong low level jet forms in the vicinity of the storm, accompanied by system-wide negative pressure deficits and circulation patterns strongly suggestive of the wind-enhanced interaction of radiation and dust (WEIRD) feedback mechanism.

Characteristics of aerosol and meteorological parameters during major dust storm events (2005 - 2010) over Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Sheng; Cao, Chunxiang; Singh, Ramesh

Multi satellite sensors are capable in monitoring dust storm, its path and changes in atmospheric parameters. The present paper discusses aerosol optical properties and meteorological parameters during major dust storm events (2005-2010) over Beijing, China. The back trajectory model shows that the dust is transported from the Inner Mongolia and Mongolia to Beijing. High aerosol optical depth (AOD) and low Ångström exponent (AE) values are observed during dusty days, the average AOD (675 nm) and AE (440-870 nm) during dusty days are 2.33 and 0.06, respectively. The aerosol size distribution (ASD) in coarse mode shows a large increase in the volume during dusty days. The single scattering albedo (SSA) increases with higher wavelength on dusty days, and higher compared to non-dusty days, indicating the presence of high scattering particles due to dust storm events. Characteristics of particles during dusty and non-dusty days are also supported by the real and imaginary parts of refractive index (RI). High air pollution index (API) during dusty days represent poor air quality is a serious health hazard at the time of dust events. The CO volume mixing ratio (COVMR) from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) shows decrease on the ground on dusty days, while the relative humidity (RH) and H _{2}0 mass mixing ratio (H _{2}OMMR) enhance. In addition, due to the dust storm in 2005, enhanced level of water vapor (WV) using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data is observed in and around Beijing over the dust storms track.

Benefits of Using Remote Sensing for Health Alerts and Chronic Respiratory Exposures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, J. C.

2010-01-01

Respiratory diseases such as asthma can be triggered by environmental conditions that can be monitored using Earth observing data and environmental forecast models. Frequent dust storms in the southwestern United States, the annual cycle of juniper pollen events in the spring, and increased aerosol and ozone concentrations in summer, are health concerns shared by the community at large. Being able to forecast the occurrence of these events would help the health care community prepare for increased visits to emergency rooms, as well as allow public health officials to issue alerts to affected persons. This information also is important to epidemiologists for analyzing long-term trends and impacts of these events on the health and well-being of the community. Earth observing data collected by remote sensing platforms are important for improving the performance of models that can forecast these events, and in turn, improve products and information for decision-making by public health authorities. This presentation will discuss the benefits of using remote sensing data for forecasting environmental events that can adversely affect individuals with respiratory ailments. The presentations will include a brief discussion on relevant Earth observing data, the forecast models used, and societal benefits of the resulting products and information. Several NASA-funded projects will be highlighted as examples

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

cyclone THORPEX The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment TIGGE THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble TS tropical storm ...forecast possible, but also relay the level of uncertainty unique to a given storm . This will better inform decision makers to help protect all assets at...for any given storm . Thus, the probabilities may 4 increase or decrease (and the probability swath may widen or narrow) to provide a more

Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

2014-12-01

In the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October-December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS has a clear skill in predicting the actual probability distribution of sea level, and it outperforms simple "dressed" PF methods. A probability estimate based on the single DF is shown to be inadequate. However, a PF obtained with a prescribed Gaussian distribution and centered on the DF value performs very similarly to the EPS-based PF.

Forecasts and Warnings of Extreme Solar Storms at the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundstedt, H.

2015-12-01

The most pressing space weather forecasts and warnings are those of the most intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, in trying to develop these forecasts and warnings, we are confronted to many fundamental questions. Some of those are: How to define an observable measure for an extreme solar storm? How extreme can a solar storm become and how long is the build up time? How to make forecasts and warnings? Many have contributed to clarifying these general questions. In his presentation we will describe our latest results on the topological complexity of magnetic fields and the use of SDO SHARP parameters. The complexity concept will then be used to discuss the second question. Finally we will describe probability estimates of extreme solar storms.

Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

2015-12-01

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

Verification of space weather forecasts at the UK Met Office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D.; Murray, S.

2017-12-01

The UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) has produced space weather guidance twice a day since its official opening in 2014. Guidance includes 4-day probabilistic forecasts of X-ray flares, geomagnetic storms, high-energy electron events and high-energy proton events. Evaluation of such forecasts is important to forecasters, stakeholders, model developers and users to understand the performance of these forecasts and also strengths and weaknesses to enable further development. Met Office terrestrial near real-time verification systems have been adapted to provide verification of X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts. Verification is updated daily to produce Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Reliability diagrams, and rolling Ranked Probability Skill Scores (RPSSs) thus providing understanding of forecast performance and skill. Results suggest that the MOSWOC issued X-ray flare forecasts are usually not statistically significantly better than a benchmark climatological forecast (where the climatology is based on observations from the previous few months). By contrast, the issued geomagnetic storm activity forecast typically performs better against this climatological benchmark.

Induction of chromosome aberrations in cultured human lymphocytes treated with sand dust storm fine particles (PM2.5).

PubMed

Wei, Aili; Meng, Ziqiang

2006-09-30

The clastogenic activity of airborne air fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particulates with an aerodynamic diameter < or =2.5 microm) has already been demonstrated. However little is known about the health risks associated with sand dust storm PM2.5 and its extract. In order to investigate the clastogenic activity of sand dust storm PM2.5 (include its organic and inorganic extract) on human lymphocytes, the normal PM2.5 and sand dust storm PM2.5 samples were collected in Wuwei city (Gansu Province) and Baotou city (Inner Mongolia), China. The chromosomal aberration (CA) test was employed and the cells were treated with 0, 33, 100, 300 microg ml(-1) sand dust storm or normal ambient air PM2.5 suspension (physiological saline as solvent control), or inorganic extract (0, 75, 150, 300 microg ml(-1), physiological saline as solvent control) or organic extract (0, 20, 40, 80 microg ml(-1), DMSO as solvent control) at the beginning of the cell culture. The results indicated that sand dust storm PM2.5 and its extract as well as normal samples can induce increase in CA frequency. With the increase of treatment concentrations the CA frequency increased and the mitotic index (MI) values declined in a dose-response manner. In the same concentrates, the CA frequency of normal ambient air PM2.5 and its extract were significant higher than those of sand dust storm PM2.5 (P<0.05 or 0.01) except the treatment of Wuwei sample at higher doses (100, 300 microg ml(-1)), the treatment of inorganic extract of PM2.5 at the highest dose (300 microg ml(-1)) and the treatment of organic extract of PM2.5 at the higher dose (40 and 80 microg ml(-1)) either in Baotou or in Wuwei (P>0.05). The toxicity of sand dust storm PM2.5 and its extract at high dose is very potent. CA frequency of normal PM2.5 (include its organic extract) from Baotou were higher than those of Wuwei especially in low and middle dose (P<0.05), but the treatment results of sand dust storm PM2.5 (include its all extract) was not significant different between the cities (P>0.05).

Alaskan Ice Core Shows Relationship Between Asian Dust Storm And The Stratosphere Troposphere Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasunari, T. J.; Shiraiwa, T.; Kanamori, S.; Fujii, Y.; Igarashi, M.; Yamazaki, K.; Benson, C. S.; Hondoh, T.

2005-12-01

Atmospheric dust absorbs and scatters solar radiation, and affects global radiative balance. Dust storm in arid and semi-arid regions in East Asia is main dust source in the northern hemisphere. Asian dust has large effect on radiative balance in the northern hemisphere and its long range transport to Alaskan region frequently occurs in springtime. On the other hand, the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) is a important phenomenon for material exchange among the spheres. Some parameters such as tritium, ozone and beryllium can be transferred from the stratosphere into the troposphere under some conditions such as tropopause folding outbreaks, cut-off low developing and cyclonic activities. STE has a seasonal exchange with maximum in springtime. In June 2003, a 50m ice core was drilled at the summit of Mount Wrangell volcano (60N, 144W, 4100 m), Alaska. Dust particle concentration, tritium content and ratio of stable hydrogen isotope were analyzed. Tritium is the stratospheric tracer recently because the effect of nuclear tests in 1960s has faded these days, and its concentration is highest north of 30th parallel. Therefore, the ice core drilled here is ideal to assess both the Asian dust transport and STE. The core covers 1992-2002 with divided four seasons (winter, spring, late-spring and summer). Fine dust less than one micro meter generally represents long range transport increased in springtime every year. The drastic fine and coarse dust flux increases after 2000 correspond to recent increase of Asian Dust outbreaks. These indicate that Asian dust storm largely affects Mount Wrangell every year. Here we show the fact that highest positive correlation between tritium and fine dust fluxes was seen in the term from late-spring to summer (also high correlation between tritium and coarse dust fluxes in this term), suggesting that the stratosphere-troposphere exchange was most intensified by Asian dust storms in this transient season from spring to summer. Asian dust and STE are dominant in springtime. However, our results showed that these activities related each other the most from late-spring to summer. Asian dust storm and STE are not active in summer. Hence, our results are assumed to mainly reflect late-spring relationship between Asian dust storm and STE. Asian dust outbreaks with severe weather would impact on vertical and horizontal material circulation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Further studies for Asian dust and STE especially focused on late-spring may lead to elucidate the mechanism of material circulation and assess the radiative forcing of Asian dust in springtime.

Accelerating Dust Storm Simulation by Balancing Task Allocation in Parallel Computing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gui, Z.; Yang, C.; XIA, J.; Huang, Q.; YU, M.

2013-12-01

Dust storm has serious negative impacts on environment, human health, and assets. The continuing global climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of dust storm in the past decades. To better understand and predict the distribution, intensity and structure of dust storm, a series of dust storm models have been developed, such as Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM), the NMM meteorological module (NMM-dust) and Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment for Dust (CUACE/Dust). The developments and applications of these models have contributed significantly to both scientific research and our daily life. However, dust storm simulation is a data and computing intensive process. Normally, a simulation for a single dust storm event may take several days or hours to run. It seriously impacts the timeliness of prediction and potential applications. To speed up the process, high performance computing is widely adopted. By partitioning a large study area into small subdomains according to their geographic location and executing them on different computing nodes in a parallel fashion, the computing performance can be significantly improved. Since spatiotemporal correlations exist in the geophysical process of dust storm simulation, each subdomain allocated to a node need to communicate with other geographically adjacent subdomains to exchange data. Inappropriate allocations may introduce imbalance task loads and unnecessary communications among computing nodes. Therefore, task allocation method is the key factor, which may impact the feasibility of the paralleling. The allocation algorithm needs to carefully leverage the computing cost and communication cost for each computing node to minimize total execution time and reduce overall communication cost for the entire system. This presentation introduces two algorithms for such allocation and compares them with evenly distributed allocation method. Specifically, 1) In order to get optimized solutions, a quadratic programming based modeling method is proposed. This algorithm performs well with small amount of computing tasks. However, its efficiency decreases significantly as the subdomain number and computing node number increase. 2) To compensate performance decreasing for large scale tasks, a K-Means clustering based algorithm is introduced. Instead of dedicating to get optimized solutions, this method can get relatively good feasible solutions within acceptable time. However, it may introduce imbalance communication for nodes or node-isolated subdomains. This research shows both two algorithms have their own strength and weakness for task allocation. A combination of the two algorithms is under study to obtain a better performance. Keywords: Scheduling; Parallel Computing; Load Balance; Optimization; Cost Model

Storming ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Fourteen tropical storms, nine hurricanes, and four intense hurricanes with winds above 111 mph. That's the forecast for hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin for the upcoming hurricane season which extends from June 1 through November 30, 1999, according to a Colorado State Hurricane Forecast team led by William Gray, professor of atmospheric science. The forecast supports an earlier report by the team.Hurricane activity, said Gray will be similar to 1998—which yielded 14 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense storms. These numbers are significantly higher than the long-term statistical averages of 9.3, 5.8, and 2.2, annually.

Health effects of the September 2009 dust storm in Sydney, Australia: did emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase?

PubMed

Merrifield, Alistair; Schindeler, Suzanne; Jalaludin, Bin; Smith, Wayne

2013-04-16

During September 2009, a large dust storm was experienced in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Extremely high levels of particulate matter were recorded, with daily average levels of coarse matter (<10 μm) peaking over 11,000 μg/m3 and fine (<2.5 μm) over 1,600 μg/m3. We conducted an analysis to determine whether the dust storm was associated with increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory and asthma-related emergency department presentations and hospital admissions. We used distributed-lag Poisson generalized models to analyse the emergency department presentations and hospital admissions adjusted for pollutants, humidity, temperature and day of week and seasonal effects to obtain estimates of relative risks associated with the dust storm. The dust storm period was associated with large increases in asthma emergency department visits (relative risk 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.38, p < 0.01), and to a lesser extent, all emergency department visits (relative risk 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.06, p < 0.01) and respiratory emergency department visits (relative risk 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.26, p < 0.01). There was no significant increase in cardiovascular emergency department visits (p = 0.09) or hospital admissions for any reason. Age-specific analyses showed the dust storm was associated with increases in all-cause and respiratory emergency department visits in the ≥65 year age group; the ≤5 year group had higher risks of all-cause, respiratory and asthma-related emergency department presentations. We recommend public health measures, especially targeting asthmatics, should be implemented during future dust storm events.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Renno, Nilton O.; Ruf, Christopher S., E-mail: renno@alum.mit.edu

Ruf et al. used the Deep Space Network (DSN) to search for the emission of non-thermal radiation by martian dust storms, theoretically predicted by Renno et al. They detected the emission of non-thermal radiation that they were searching for, but were surprised that it contained spectral peaks suggesting modulation at various frequencies and their harmonics. Ruf et al. hypothesized that the emission of non-thermal radiation was caused by electric discharges in a deep convective dust storm, modulated by Schumann resonances (SRs). Anderson et al. used the Allen Telescope Array (ATA) to search for similar emissions. They stated that they foundmore » only radio frequency interference (RFI) during their search for non-thermal emission by martian dust storms and implicitly suggested that the signal detected by Ruf et al. was also RFI. However, their search was not conducted during the dust storm season when deep convective storms are most likely to occur. Here, we show that the ubiquitous dust devils and small-scale dust storms that were instead likely present during their observations are too shallow to excite SRs and produce the signals detected by Ruf et al. We also show that the spectral and temporal behavior of the signals detected by Anderson et al. corroborates the idea that they originated from man-made pulse-modulated telecommunication signals rather than martian electric discharges. In contrast, an identical presentation of the signals detected by Ruf et al. demonstrates that they do not resemble man-made signals. The presentation indicates that the DSN signals were consistent with modulation by martian SRs, as originally hypothesized by Ruf et al. We propose that a more comprehensive search for electrostatic discharges be conducted with either the ATA or DSN during a future martian dust storm season to test the hypothesis proposed by Ruf et al.« less

Health effects of the September 2009 dust storm in Sydney, Australia: did emergency department visits and hospital admissions increase?

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background During September 2009, a large dust storm was experienced in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Extremely high levels of particulate matter were recorded, with daily average levels of coarse matter (<10 μm) peaking over 11,000 μg/m3 and fine (<2.5 μm) over 1,600 μg/m3. We conducted an analysis to determine whether the dust storm was associated with increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory and asthma-related emergency department presentations and hospital admissions. Methods We used distributed-lag Poisson generalized models to analyse the emergency department presentations and hospital admissions adjusted for pollutants, humidity, temperature and day of week and seasonal effects to obtain estimates of relative risks associated with the dust storm. Results The dust storm period was associated with large increases in asthma emergency department visits (relative risk 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.38, p < 0.01), and to a lesser extent, all emergency department visits (relative risk 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.06, p < 0.01) and respiratory emergency department visits (relative risk 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.26, p < 0.01). There was no significant increase in cardiovascular emergency department visits (p = 0.09) or hospital admissions for any reason. Age-specific analyses showed the dust storm was associated with increases in all-cause and respiratory emergency department visits in the ≥65 year age group; the ≤5 year group had higher risks of all-cause, respiratory and asthma-related emergency department presentations. Conclusions We recommend public health measures, especially targeting asthmatics, should be implemented during future dust storm events. PMID:23587335

Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

2010-05-01

Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www.surgesymposium.org, organized by the WMO-IOC Joint technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, JCOMM) and following activities, that have been supported by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO through JCOMM. The paper also reviews the capabilities of storm surge models, and current status in using Earth Observation (EO) information for advancing storm surge application tools, and further, for improving operational forecasts and warning capability for coastal inundation. In this context, the plans and expected results of the ESA Storm Surge Project (2010-2011) will be introduced.

Global Surface Dust Distribution Changes on Mars (MY24-33)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piqueux, S.; Hayne, P. O.; Kleinboehl, A.; Edwards, C. S.; Elder, C. M.; Heavens, N. G.; Kass, D. M.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Shirley, J. H.; Smith, M. D.

2016-12-01

Telescopic and spacecraft observations document inter-annual and inter-seasonal changes of the Martian albedo that are interpreted to result from the redistribution of surface dust in response to atmospheric events such as global or regional dust storms, dust devil activity, or seasonal winds. Based on these observations and general circulation modeling, several authors have hypothesized that a necessary condition for global dust storm initiation and growth is the presence of strategically located surface dust reservoirs replenished during inter-storm periods. If this hypothesis is valid, the cyclical accumulation and removal of thermally thick (>50 μm) layers of dust at specific locations ought to produce a distinct temperature signature, since Martian dust exhibits extremely low thermal conductivity and thermal inertia values compared to sand, gravel, rocks, and bedrock. Characterizing dust movement using temperature data presents a major advantage over mapping relying solely on albedo changes: it yields dust layer thicknesses, whose spatial and temporal integration enables the derivation of surface dust fluxes. In this work, we use global (1° per pixel resolution) seasonal (10° Ls resolution, from MY24 to 33) maps of the Martian surface albedo, atmospheric dust opacity, and ground temperature (derived from TES, THEMIS, and MCS observations) to derive apparent variations of the thermal inertia, and thereby characterize surface changes consistent with the deposition or removal of dust. We show that changes in thermal inertia for some regions are consistent with dust accumulation; whereas others seem to lose dust. We compare these maps with published GCM dust lifting predictions, and with observations of past dust storm occurrence, thereby constraining the role of surface dust availability.

Improving the Non-Hydrostatic Numerical Dust Model by Integrating Soil Moisture and Greenness Vegetation Fraction Data with Different Spatiotemporal Resolutions.

PubMed

Yu, Manzhu; Yang, Chaowei

2016-01-01

Dust storms are devastating natural disasters that cost billions of dollars and many human lives every year. Using the Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Dust Model (NMM-dust), this research studies how different spatiotemporal resolutions of two input parameters (soil moisture and greenness vegetation fraction) impact the sensitivity and accuracy of a dust model. Experiments are conducted by simulating dust concentration during July 1-7, 2014, for the target area covering part of Arizona and California (31, 37, -118, -112), with a resolution of ~ 3 km. Using ground-based and satellite observations, this research validates the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of dust storm output from the NMM-dust, and quantifies model error using measurements of four evaluation metrics (mean bias error, root mean square error, correlation coefficient and fractional gross error). Results showed that the default configuration of NMM-dust (with a low spatiotemporal resolution of both input parameters) generates an overestimation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). Although it is able to qualitatively reproduce the temporal trend of the dust event, the default configuration of NMM-dust cannot fully capture its actual spatial distribution. Adjusting the spatiotemporal resolution of soil moisture and vegetation cover datasets showed that the model is sensitive to both parameters. Increasing the spatiotemporal resolution of soil moisture effectively reduces model's overestimation of AOD, while increasing the spatiotemporal resolution of vegetation cover changes the spatial distribution of reproduced dust storm. The adjustment of both parameters enables NMM-dust to capture the spatial distribution of dust storms, as well as reproducing more accurate dust concentration.

Dust storm off Western Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

The impacts of Saharan dust storms reach far beyond Africa. Wind-swept deserts spill airborne dust particles out over the Atlantic Ocean where they can enter trade winds bound for Central and North America and the Caribbean. This Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image shows a dust storm casting an opaque cloud of cloud across the Canary Islands and the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa on June 30, 2002. In general it takes between 5 and 7 days for such an event to cross the Atlantic. The dust has been shown to introduce foreign bacteria and fungi that have damaged reef ecosystems and have even been hypothesized as a cause of increasing occurrences of respiratory complaints in places like Florida, where the amount of Saharan dust reaching the state has been increasing over the past 25 years.

Martian dust storms as a possible sink of atmospheric methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, W. M.; Delory, G. T.; Atreya, S. K.

2006-11-01

Recent laboratory tests, analog studies and numerical simulations all suggest that Martian dust devils and larger dusty convective storms generate and maintain large-scale electric fields. Such expected E-fields will have the capability to create significant electron drift motion in the collisional gas and to form an extended high energy (u $\\gg$ kT) electron tail in the distribution. We demonstrate herein that these energetic electrons are capable of dissociating any trace CH4 in the ambient atmosphere thereby acting as an atmospheric sink of this important gas. We demonstrate that the methane destruction rate increases by a factor of 1012 as the dust storm E-fields, E, increase from 5 to 25 kV/m, resulting in an apparent decrease in methane stability from ~ 1010 sec to a value of ~1000 seconds. While destruction in dust storms is severe, the overall methane lifetime is expected to decrease only moderately due to recycling of products, heterogeneous effects from localized sinks, etc. We show further evidence that the electrical activity anticipated in Martian dust storms creates a new harsh electro-chemical environment.

Simplified methods for real-time prediction of storm surge uncertainty: The city of Venice case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Viero, Daniele Pietro; Carniello, Luca; Defina, Andrea; D'Alpaos, Luigi

2014-09-01

Providing reliable and accurate storm surge forecasts is important for a wide range of problems related to coastal environments. In order to adequately support decision-making processes, it also become increasingly important to be able to estimate the uncertainty associated with the storm surge forecast. The procedure commonly adopted to do this uses the results of a hydrodynamic model forced by a set of different meteorological forecasts; however, this approach requires a considerable, if not prohibitive, computational cost for real-time application. In the present paper we present two simplified methods for estimating the uncertainty affecting storm surge prediction with moderate computational effort. In the first approach we use a computationally fast, statistical tidal model instead of a hydrodynamic numerical model to estimate storm surge uncertainty. The second approach is based on the observation that the uncertainty in the sea level forecast mainly stems from the uncertainty affecting the meteorological fields; this has led to the idea to estimate forecast uncertainty via a linear combination of suitable meteorological variances, directly extracted from the meteorological fields. The proposed methods were applied to estimate the uncertainty in the storm surge forecast in the Venice Lagoon. The results clearly show that the uncertainty estimated through a linear combination of suitable meteorological variances nicely matches the one obtained using the deterministic approach and overcomes some intrinsic limitations in the use of a statistical tidal model.

Multi-decadal and seasonal variability of dust observations in West Greenland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullard, Joanna E.; Mockford, Tom

2017-04-01

Since the early 1900s expedition records from west Greenland have reported local dust storms. The Kangerlussuaq region, near the inland ice, is dry (mean annual precipitation <160 mm) with, on average, 150 snow-free days per year. The main local dust sources are active, proglacial outwash plains although reworking of loess deposits may also be important. This paper presents an analysis of 70-years of dust storm observations (1945-2015) based on WMO weather codes 6 (dust haze), 7 (raised dust or sand) and 9 (distant or past dust storm) and associated wind data. The 70-year average number of dust observations days is 5 per year but variable ranging from 0 observations to 23 observations in 1985. Over the past 7 decades the number of dust days has increased from <30 in 1945-54 to >75 in 1995-2004 and 2005-2015. The seasonality of dust observations has remained consistent throughout most of the period. Dust days occur all year round but are most frequent in May-June and September-October and are associated with minimum snow cover and glacial meltwater-driven sediment supply to the outwash plains during spring and fall flood events. Wind regime is bimodal dominated by katabatic winds from the northeast, which are strongest and most frequent during winter months (Nov-Jan), with less frequent, southwesterly winds generated by Atlantic storms mostly confined to spring (May, June). The southwesterly winds are those most likely to transport dust onto the Greenland ice sheet.

Storms in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, John W.

2012-11-01

Introduction; The cast of characters; Vignettes of the storm; 1. Two kinds of weather; 2. The saga of the storm; 3. Weather stations in space; 4. Lights in the night: the signature of the storm; 5. A walking tour of the magnetosphere; 6. The sun: where it all begins; 7. Nowcasting and forecasting storms in space; 8. Technology and the risks from storms in space; 9. A conversation with Joe Allen; 10. Manned exploration and space weather hazards; 11. The present and future of space weather forecasting; Mathematical appendix. A closer look; Glossary; Figure captions.

Vertical distribution of Saharan dust over Rome (Italy): Comparison between 3-year model predictions and lidar soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, P.; Barnaba, F.; Gobbi, G. P.; Alpert, P.; Shtivelman, A.; Krichak, S. O.; Joseph, J. H.

2005-03-01

Mineral dust particles loaded into the atmosphere from the Sahara desert represent one major factor affecting the Earth's radiative budget. Regular model-based forecasts of 3-D dust fields can be used in order to determine the dust radiative effect in climate models, in spite of the large gaps in observations of dust vertical profiles. In this study, dust forecasts by the Tel Aviv University (TAU) dust prediction system were compared to lidar observations to better evaluate the model's capabilities. The TAU dust model was initially developed at the University of Athens and later modified at Tel Aviv University. Dust forecasts are initialized with the aid of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (TOMS AI) measurements. The lidar soundings employed were collected at the outskirts of Rome, Italy (41.84°N, 12.64°E) during the high-dust activity season from March to June of the years 2001, 2002, and 2003. The lidar vertical profiles collected in the presence of dust were used for obtaining statistically significant reference parameters of dust layers over Rome and for model versus lidar comparison. The Barnaba and Gobbi (2001) approach was used in the current study to derive height-resolved dust volumes from lidar measurements of backscatter. Close inspection of the juxtaposed vertical profiles, obtained from lidar and model data near Rome, indicates that the majority (67%) of the cases under investigation can be classified as good or acceptable forecasts of the dust vertical distribution. A more quantitative comparison shows that the model predictions are mainly accurate in the middle part of dust layers. This is supported by high correlation (0.85) between lidar and model data for forecast dust volumes greater than the threshold of 1 × 10-12 cm3/cm3. In general, however, the model tends to underestimate the lidar-derived dust volume profiles. The effect of clouds in the TOMS detection of AI is supposed to be the main factor responsible for this effect. Moreover, some model assumptions on dust sources and particle size and the accuracy of model-simulated meteorological parameters are also likely to affect the dust forecast quality.

Evidence for dust transport in Viking IR thermal mapper opacity data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Terry Z.

1993-01-01

Global maps of 9-micron dust opacity derived from radiometric observations made by the Viking Orbiter IR Thermal Mapper instruments have revealed a wealth of new information about the distribution of airborne dust over 1.36 Mars years from 1976-1979. In particular, the changing dust distribution during major dust storms is of interest since the data provide a point of contact with both Earth-based observations of storm growth and with global circulation models.

New dust opacity maps from Viking IR thermal mapper data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, T. Z.; Richardson, M. I.

1992-01-01

Mapping of dust opacity of the Martian atmosphere, using the silicate-induced absorption of 9 micron radiation, was performed with the Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) data for several local dust storms and in a global sense. We present here the first results from an effort to extend the earlier mapping work to the period of the 1977b major storm, and to concentrate attention on the details of opacity behavior during the initial phases of the 1977a and b storms.

2016 Resembles Past Global Dust Storm Years on Mars

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-10-05

This graphic indicates a similarity between 2016 (dark blue line) and five past years in which Mars has experienced a global dust storm (orange lines and band), compared to years with no global dust storm (blue-green lines and band). The arrow nearly midway across in the dark blue line indicates the Mars time of year in late September 2016. A key factor in the graph is the orbital angular momentum of Mars, which would be steady in a system of only one planet orbiting the sun, but varies due to relatively small effects of having other planets in the solar system. The horizontal scale is time of year on Mars, starting at left with the planet's farthest distance from the sun in each orbit. This point in the Mars year, called "Mars aphelion," corresponds to late autumn in the southern hemisphere. Numeric values on the horizontal axis are in Earth years; each Mars year lasts for about 1.9 Earth years. The vertical scale bar at left applies only to the black-line curve on the graph. The amount of solar energy entering Mars' atmosphere (in watts per square meter) peaks at the time of year when Mars is closest to the sun, corresponding to late spring in the southern hemisphere. The duration of Mars' dust storm season, as indicated, brackets the time of maximum solar input to the atmosphere. The scale bar at right, for orbital angular momentum, applies to the blue, brown and blue-green curves on the graph. The values are based on mass, velocity and distance from the gravitational center of the solar system. Additional information on the units is in a 2015 paper in the journal Icarus, from which this graph is derived. The band shaded in orange is superimposed on the curves of angular momentum for five Mars years that were accompanied by global dust storms in 1956, 1971, 1982, 1994 and 2007. Brown diamond symbols on the curves for these years in indicate the times when the global storms began. The band shaded blue-green lies atop angular momentum curves for six years when no global dust storms occurred: 1939, 1975, 1988, 1998, 2000 and 2011. Note that in 2016, as in the pattern of curves for years with global dust storms, the start of the dust storm season corresponded to a period of increasing orbital angular momentum. In years with no global storm, angular momentum was declining at that point. Observations of whether dust from regional storms on Mars spreads globally in late 2016 or early 2017 will determine whether this correspondence holds up for the current Mars year. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20855

Key forecasts shaping nursing's perfect storm.

PubMed

Yoder-Wise, Patricia S

2007-01-01

Perfect storms abound in nursing and healthcare. How we plan for them and how we forecast effectively which ones will have tremendous impact on how we lead the profession is a challenge to anyone who is or will be a leader. This article focuses on key forecasts that contribute to creating perfect storms of the future. The "perfect storm" is a term found in multiple disciplines. The phrase denotes the condition that exists when events occur simultaneously with the result that this confluence has a greater impact than what could have resulted from a chance combination. Although perfect storms are rare, they have enormous impact when they occur, and if an alteration in any of the events occurs, the overall impact is lessened.

Impact and monitoring of dust storms in Taklimakan desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, G. G.; Li, X.; Zheng, Z.

2012-12-01

The Taklimakan is China's largest, driest, and warmest desert in total area of 338000km^2 with perimeter of 436 km, it is also known as one of the world's largest shifting-sand deserts. Fully 85 percent of the total area consists of mobile, crescent-shaped sand dunes and are virtually devoid of vegetation. The abundant sand provides material for frequent intense dust storms. The Taklimakan desert fills the expansive Tarim Basin between the Kunlun Mountains and the Tibet Plateau to the south and the Tian Shan Mountains to the north. The Tarim River flows across the basin from west-to-east. In these places, the oases created by fresh surface water support agriculture. Studies outside Xinjiang indicated that 80% dust source of storms was from farmland. Dust storms in the Tarim Basin occur for 20 to 59 days, mainly in spring every year. However, little effort was taken to investigate soil wind erosion and dust emission around the desert. Quantitative understanding of individual dust events in the arid Taklimakan desert, for example, the dust emission rates and the long-range transport, are still incomplete. Therefore, the dust events were observed through routine satellite sensors, lidar instruments, airborne samplers, and surface-based aerosol monitors. Soil wind erosion and suspended particulates emission of four major dust storms from the desert and the typical oasis farmlands at the north rim of the desert were measured using creep sampler, BSNE and TSP at eight heights in 2012. In addition, Aqua satellite AOD data, the NAAPS Global Aeosol model, the CALIPSO satellite products, EPA's AirNow AQI of PM2.5 and HYSPLIT Back Trajectory model were applied to analyze dust transport across the Pacific. Four significant dust storms were observed at the north rim of Taklimakan desert in the spring, 2012. During those events, predominant wind direction ranged from 296 to 334°, wind speed over 7 m/s at 2 m lasted for 471-1074 min, gust wind speed ranged from 11-18m/s. It was determined that the horizontal dust flux was 0.6 to 4.3 kg/m. Dust clouds are formed when the friction from high surface wind speeds (>6 m/s) lifts loose dust particles into the atmospheric boundary layer or above. Analysis shows that a dust storm in the Taklimakan desert on April 23th produced a huge atmospheric dust cloud, it was transported across the Pacific Ocean to reach the West Coast of North America 12 days later, corresponding to 6 m/s average transport speed. The observations in the Pacific Coast indicated that aerosol concentrations were elevated which resulted in Air Quality Index (AQI) to the yellow moderate category.

Interannual Variations in Aerosol Sources and Their Impact on Orographic Precipitation Over California's Central Sierra Nevada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Creamean, J. M.; Ault, A. P.; White, A. B.; Neiman, P. J.; Ralph, F. M.; Minnis, Patrick; Prather, K. A.

2014-01-01

Aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) have the potential to profoundly influence precipitation processes. Furthermore, changes in orographic precipitation have broad implications for reservoir storage and flood risks. As part of the CalWater I field campaign (2009-2011), the impacts of aerosol sources on precipitation were investigated in the California Sierra Nevada. In 2009, the precipitation collected on the ground was influenced by both local biomass burning (up to 79% of the insoluble residues found in precipitation) and long-range transported dust and biological particles (up to 80% combined), while in 2010, by mostly local sources of biomass burning and pollution (30-79% combined), and in 2011 by mostly long-range transport from distant sources (up to 100% dust and biological). Although vast differences in the source of residues was observed from year-to-year, dust and biological residues were omnipresent (on average, 55% of the total residues combined) and were associated with storms consisting of deep convective cloud systems and larger quantities of precipitation initiated in the ice phase. Further, biological residues were dominant during storms with relatively warm cloud temperatures (up to -15 C), suggesting these particles were more efficient IN compared to mineral dust. On the other hand, lower percentages of residues from local biomass burning and pollution were observed (on average 31% and 9%, respectively), yet these residues potentially served as CCN at the base of shallow cloud systems when precipitation quantities were low. The direct connection of the source of aerosols within clouds and precipitation type and quantity can be used in models to better assess how local emissions versus long-range transported dust and biological aerosols play a role in impacting regional weather and climate, ultimately with the goal of more accurate predictive weather forecast models and water resource management.

The Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Particulate Matter during Natural Dust Episodes at an Urban Scale

PubMed Central

Krasnov, Helena; Kloog, Itai; Friger, Michael; Katra, Itzhak

2016-01-01

Dust storms are a common phenomenon in arid and semi-arid areas, and their impacts on both physical and human environments are of great interest. Number of studies have associated atmospheric PM pollution in urban environments with origin in natural soil/dust, but less evaluated the dust spatial patterns over a city. We aimed to analyze the spatial-temporal behavior of PM concentrations over the city of Beer Sheva, in southern Israel, where dust storms are quite frequent. PM data were recorded during the peak of each dust episode simultaneously in 23 predetermined fixed points around the city. Data were analyzed for both dust days and non-dust days (background). The database was constructed using Geographic Information System and includes distributions of PM that were derived using inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation. The results show that the daily averages of atmospheric PM10 concentrations during the background period are within a narrow range of 31 to 48 μg m-3 with low variations. During dust days however, the temporal variations are significant and can range from an hourly PM10 concentration of 100 μg m-3 to more than 1280 μg m-3 during strong storms. IDW analysis demonstrates that during the peak time of the storm the spatial variations in PM between locations in the city can reach 400 μg m-3. An analysis of site and storm contribution to total PM concentration revealed that higher concentrations are found in parts of the city that are proximal to dust sources. The results improve the understanding of the dynamics of natural PM and the dependence on wind direction. This may have implications for environmental and health outcomes. PMID:27513479

The relationship between gorgonian coral (Cnidaria: Gorgonacea) diseases and African dust storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weir-Brush, J. R.; Garrison, V.H.; Smith, G.W.; Shinn, E.A.

2004-01-01

The number of reports of coral diseases has increased throughout the world in the last 20 years. Aspergillosis, which primarily affects Gorgonia ventalina and G. flabellum, is one of the few diseases to be characterized. This disease is caused by Aspergillus sydowii, a terrestrial fungus with a worldwide distribution. Upon infection, colonies may lose tissue, and ultimately, mortality may occur if the infection is not sequestered. The spores of A. sydowii are <5 ??m, small enough to be easily picked up by winds and dispersed over great distances. Aspergillosis is prevalent in the Caribbean, and it appears that this primarily terrestrial fungus has adapted to a marine environment. It has been proposed that dust storms originating in Africa may be one way in which potential coral pathogens are distributed and deposited into the marine environments of the Caribbean. To test the hypothesis that African dust storms transport and deposit pathogens, we collected air samples from both dust storms and periods of nondust in St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands. Because we focused on fungal pathogens and used A. sydowii as a model, we isolated and cultured fungi on various types of media. Fungi including Aspergillus spp. were isolated from air samples taken from dust events and non-dust events. Twenty-three separate cultures and seven genera were isolated from dust event samples whereas eight cultures from five genera were isolated from non-dust air samples. Three isolates from the Virgin Islands dust event samples morphologically identified as Aspergillus spp. produced signs of aspergillosis in seafans, and the original pathogens were re-isolated from those diseased seafans fulfilling Koch's Postulates. This research supports the hypothesis that African dust storms transport across the Atlantic Ocean and deposit potential coral pathogens in the Caribbean.

Dust in the wind: long range transport of dust in the atmosphere and its implications for global public and ecosystem health

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Dale W.; Kellogg, Christina A.; Shinn, Eugene A.

2001-01-01

Movement of soil particles in atmospheres is a normal planetary process. Images of Martian dust devils (wind-spouts) and dust storms captured by NASA's Pathfinder have demonstrated the significant role that storm activity plays in creating the red atmospheric haze of Mars. On Earth, desert soils moving in the atmosphere are responsible for the orange hues in brilliant sunrises and sunsets. In severe dust storm events, millions of tons of soil may be moved across great expanses of land and ocean. An emerging scientific interest in the process of soil transport in the Earth's atmosphere is in the field of public and ecosystem health. This article will address the benefits and the potential hazards associated with exposure to particle fallout as clouds of desert dust traverse the globe.

Ecological Restoration Programs Induced Amelioration of the Dust Pollution in North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, X.; Tie, X.; Li, G.; Junji, C.

2017-12-01

With Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product (MCD12Q1), we quantitatively evaluate the ecological restoration programs (ERP) induced land cover change in China by calculating gridded the land use fraction (LUF). We clearly capture two obvious vegetation (grass and forest) protective barriers arise between the dust source region DSR and North China Plain NCP from 2011 to 2013. The WRF-DUST model is applied to investigate the impact of ERPs on dust pollution from 2 to 8 March 2016, corresponding to a national dust storm event over China. Despite some model biases, the WRF-DUST model reasonably reproduced the temporal variations of dust storm event, involving IOA of 0.96 and NMB of 2% for DSR, with IOA of 0.83 and NMB of -15% for downwind area of NCP. Generally, the WRF-DUST model well capture the spatial variations and evolutions of dust storm events with episode-average [PMC] correlation coefficient (R) of 0.77, especially the dust storm outbreak and transport evolution, involving daily average [PMC] R of 0.9 and 0.73 on 4-5 March, respectively. It is found that the ERPs generally reduce the dust pollution in NCP, especially for BTH, involving upper dust pollution control benefits of -15.3% (-21.0 μg m-3) for BTH, and -6.2% (-9.3 μg m-3) for NCP. We are the first to conduct model sensitivity studies to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of the ERPs on the dust pollution in NCP. And our narrative is independently based on first-hand sources, whereas government statistics.

Spatiotemporal Modelling of Dust Storm Sources Emission in West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodabandehloo, E.; Alimohamdadi, A.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.; Darvishi Boloorani, A.; Alesheikh, A. A.

2013-09-01

Dust aerosol is the largest contributor to aerosol mass concentrations in the troposphere and has considerable effects on the air quality of spatial and temporal scales. Arid and semi-arid areas of the West Asia are one of the most important regional dust sources in the world. These phenomena directly or indirectly affecting almost all aspects life in almost 15 countries in the region. So an accurate estimate of dust emissions is very crucial for making a common understanding and knowledge of the problem. Because of the spatial and temporal limits of the ground-based observations, remote sensing methods have been found to be more efficient and useful for studying the West Asia dust source. The vegetation cover limits dust emission by decelerating the surface wind velocities and therefore reducing the momentum transport. While all models explicitly take into account the change of wind speed and soil moisture in calculating dust emissions, they commonly employ a "climatological" land cover data for identifying dust source locations and neglect the time variation of surface bareness. In order to compile the aforementioned model, land surface features such as soil moisture, texture, type, and vegetation and also wind speed as atmospheric parameter are used. Having used NDVI data show significant change in dust emission, The modeled dust emission with static source function in June 2008 is 17.02 % higher than static source function and similar result for Mach 2007 show the static source function is 8.91 % higher than static source function. we witness a significant improvement in accuracy of dust forecasts during the months of most soil vegetation changes (spring and winter) compared to outputs resulted from static model, in which NDVI data are neglected.

The Origin of Regional Dust Deposits on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, P. R.

1985-01-01

Recently, additional evidence was derived from the Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper observations that allows a more complete model for the formation of Low Thermal inertia-high Albedo regions to be proposed. The first observation is that dust appears to be currently accumulating in the low thermal inertia regions. Following each global dust storm a thin layer of dust is deposited globally, as evidenced by an increase in surface albedo seen from orbit and from the Viking Lander sites. During the period following the storm, the bright dust fallout is subsequently removed from low albedo regions, as indicated by the post-storm darkening of these surfaces and by an increase in the atmospheric dust content over dark regions relative to the bright, low thermal inertia regions. Thus, the fine dust storm material is removed from dark regions but not from the bright regions, resulting in a net accumulation within the bright, low thermal inertia regions. Once deposition has begun, the covering of exposed rocks and sand and the accumulation of fine material on the surface make removal of material increasingly difficult, thereby enhancing the likelihood that material will accumulate within the low thermal inertia regions.

Diagnostic evaluation of the Community Earth System Model in simulating mineral dust emission with insight into large-scale dust storm mobilization in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, Sagar Prasad; Yang, Zong-Liang; Lawrence, David M.

2016-06-01

Large amounts of mineral dust are injected into the atmosphere during dust storms, which are common in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where most of the global dust hotspots are located. In this work, we present simulations of dust emission using the Community Earth System Model Version 1.2.2 (CESM 1.2.2) and evaluate how well it captures the spatio-temporal characteristics of dust emission in the MENA region with a focus on large-scale dust storm mobilization. We explicitly focus our analysis on the model's two major input parameters that affect the vertical mass flux of dust-surface winds and the soil erodibility factor. We analyze dust emissions in simulations with both prognostic CESM winds and with CESM winds that are nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis values. Simulations with three existing erodibility maps and a new observation-based erodibility map are also conducted. We compare the simulated results with MODIS satellite data, MACC reanalysis data, AERONET station data, and CALIPSO 3-d aerosol profile data. The dust emission simulated by CESM, when driven by nudged reanalysis winds, compares reasonably well with observations on daily to monthly time scales despite CESM being a global General Circulation Model. However, considerable bias exists around known high dust source locations in northwest/northeast Africa and over the Arabian Peninsula where recurring large-scale dust storms are common. The new observation-based erodibility map, which can represent anthropogenic dust sources that are not directly represented by existing erodibility maps, shows improved performance in terms of the simulated dust optical depth (DOD) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) compared to existing erodibility maps although the performance of different erodibility maps varies by region.

Three Years of Monitoring Mars' Atmospheric Dust (Animation)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

[figure removed for brevity, see original site] Animation

This movie shows the daily abundance of dust in the martian atmosphere over a period of three full martian years, from April 1999 through February 2005. The Thermal Emission Spectrometer instrument on NASA's Mars Global Surveyor orbiter has been tracking the weather on Mars for six years. The infrared spectrum observed by this instrument yields information about the spectral properties of the dust and the temperature of the atmosphere. These two properties can then be used to derive how much dust is in the atmosphere.

Of particular interest are large regional and global dust storms that occur during summer in the southern hemisphere each Mars year. The 2001 storm was by far the largest, lasting over six months (June to October, 2001) and covering the entire planet. The storms in the other two Mars years shown here were much smaller and never covered the planet. The most recent storm season (June 2003 through January 2005) actually had two separate storms, one in June and a second in December. Unlike most large martian dust storms that start in the southern hemisphere, the December storm began in the north and swept toward the equator. Between storms the atmosphere becomes quite clear, with much smaller dust storms scattered throughout the year and over the planet.

Seasons on Mars are determined by the position of Mars in its orbit around the Sun. The position is measured in degrees of solar longitude (Ls) around the orbit, beginning at 0 degrees Ls at the northern spring equinox, progressing to 90 degrees Ls at the start of northern summer, 180 degrees Ls at the fall equinox, 270 degrees Ls at the start of northern winter, and finally back to 360 degrees, or 0 degrees, Ls at the spring equinox. Dust abundance is measured as opacity (tau), with values of 0 tau representing a completely clear atmosphere, and values of 2 indicating that it is nearly impossible to see through to the surface.

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer is operated by a team led at Arizona State University, Tempe. Mars Global Surveyor left Earth on Nov. 7, 1996, and began orbiting Mars on Sept. 12, 1997. JPL, a division of the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, manages Mars Global Surveyor for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington.

Observed changes in limb clouds immediately prior to the onset of planet-encircling dust storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, L. J.; James, P. B.; Zurek, R. W.

1992-01-01

Of the several size and nomenclature groupings of Martian dust storms, it is the plane-encircling or truly runaway dust storms that are of most concern to both the theoreticians and mission planners. Once believed to be regularly seasonal, it is now known that they are not annual occurrences and that the few we know about occurred within at least one-third of Mars' seasonal cycle. We cannot confirm that any were observed before 1956, and not one has been observed since 1982 (the classification of that event as 'encircling' is an interpretation of observation from a single point on the planet's surface). If these storms occur in cycles, we do not know the lengths or causes of the cycles. Regional and local dust storms occur more frequently and throughout the Martian year, but the underlying question is how do some become runaways, encircling the planet, while the others die out, usually within a few days. An investigation of this topic is presented.

Improvement of forecast skill for severe weather by merging radar-based extrapolation and storm-scale NWP corrected forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gaili; Wong, Wai-Kin; Hong, Yang; Liu, Liping; Dong, Jili; Xue, Ming

2015-03-01

The primary objective of this study is to improve the performance of deterministic high resolution rainfall forecasts caused by severe storms by merging an extrapolation radar-based scheme with a storm-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Effectiveness of Multi-scale Tracking and Forecasting Radar Echoes (MTaRE) model was compared with that of a storm-scale NWP model named Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) for forecasting a violent tornado event that developed over parts of western and much of central Oklahoma on May 24, 2011. Then the bias corrections were performed to improve the forecast accuracy of ARPS forecasts. Finally, the corrected ARPS forecast and radar-based extrapolation were optimally merged by using a hyperbolic tangent weight scheme. The comparison of forecast skill between MTaRE and ARPS in high spatial resolution of 0.01° × 0.01° and high temporal resolution of 5 min showed that MTaRE outperformed ARPS in terms of index of agreement and mean absolute error (MAE). MTaRE had a better Critical Success Index (CSI) for less than 20-min lead times and was comparable to ARPS for 20- to 50-min lead times, while ARPS had a better CSI for more than 50-min lead times. Bias correction significantly improved ARPS forecasts in terms of MAE and index of agreement, although the CSI of corrected ARPS forecasts was similar to that of the uncorrected ARPS forecasts. Moreover, optimally merging results using hyperbolic tangent weight scheme further improved the forecast accuracy and became more stable.

Long-term effects of livestock loss caused by dust storm on mongolian inhabitants: a survey 1 year after the dust storm.

PubMed

Mu, Haosheng; Otani, Shinji; Shinoda, Masato; Yokoyama, Yae; Onishi, Kazunari; Hosoda, Takenobu; Okamoto, Mikizo; Kurozawa, Youichi

2013-03-01

Every spring, windblown dust storms damage human health and cause many domestic animal deaths in Mongolia. In particular, mass livestock death results in severe, direct economic loss to inhabitants. However, there is little empirical evidence to demonstrate the long-term effects of dust storm, especially in terms of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) secondary to livestock loss. We evaluated the long-term effects of livestock loss on Mongolian inhabitants. We performed a cross-sectional survey of HRQoL using 36-item short-form health survey (SF-36, an index of the health condition) 1 year after a dust storm. The study subjects were 64 inhabitants of stricken areas of Mongolia. The data collection method was a face-to-face interview with a questionnaire. A total of 64 subjects were interviewed, 81% in the victims group and 19% in the non-victims group. The mean number of livestock victims was 83.3, s = 128.3. The SF-36 subscale scores were lower among people who lost livestock than among those who did not. Multiple regression analysis displayed a significant association between livestock loss and HRQoL (general health: = -0.476, P = 0.021; vitality: = -0.359, P = 0.013). Our results provide preliminary evidence that livestock loss has long-term effects on HRQoL. Thus, it is necessary to conduct epidemiologic surveys on disorders associated with dust storms and devise countermeasures for the future.

Probabilistic Storm Surge Forecast For Venice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

2013-04-01

This study describes an ensemble storm surge prediction procedure for the city of Venice, which is potentially very useful for its management, maintenance and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built. Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is meant to complement the existing SL forecast system by providing a probabilistic forecast and information on uncertainty of SL prediction. The procedure is applied to storm surge events in the period 2009-2010 producing for each of them an ensemble of 50 simulations. It is shown that EPS slightly increases the accuracy of SL prediction with respect to the deterministic forecast (DF) and it is more reliable than it. Though results are low biased and forecast uncertainty is underestimated, the probability distribution of maximum sea level produced by the EPS is acceptably realistic. The error of the EPS mean is shown to be correlated with the EPS spread. SL peaks correspond to maxima of uncertainty and uncertainty increases linearly with the forecast range. The quasi linear dynamics of the storm surges produces a modulation of the uncertainty after the SL peak with period corresponding to that of the main Adriatic seiche.

A linkage between Asian dust, dissolved iron and marine export production in the deep ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Yongxiang; Zhao, Tianliang; Song, Lianchun; Fang, Xiaomin; Yin, Yan; Deng, Zuqin; Wang, Suping; Fan, Shuxian

2011-08-01

Iron-addition experiments have revealed that iron supply exerts controls on biogeochemical cycles in the ocean and ultimately influences the Earth's climate system. The iron hypothesis in its broad outlines has been proved to be correct. However, the hypothesis needs to be verified with an observable biological response to specific dust deposition events. Plankton growth following the Asian dust storm over Ocean Station PAPA (50°N, 145°W) in the North Pacific Ocean in April 2001 was the first supportive evidence of natural aeolian iron inputs to ocean; The data were obtained through the SeaWiFS satellite and robot carbon explorers by Bishop et al. Using the NARCM modeling results in this study, the calculated total dust deposition flux was 35 mg m -2 per day in PAPA region from the dust storm of 11-13 April, 2001 into 0.0615 mg m -2 d -1 (about 1100 nM) soluble iron in the surface layer at Station PAPA. It was enough for about 1100 nM to enhance the efficiency of the marine biological pump and trigger the rapid increase of POC and chlorophyll. The iron fertilization hypothesis therefore is plausible. However, even if this specific dust event can support the iron fertilization hypothesis, long-term observation data are lacking in marine export production and continental dust. In this paper, we also conducted a simple correlation analysis between the diatoms and foraminifera at about 3000 m and 4000 m at two subarctic Pacific stations and the dust aerosol production from China's mainland. The correlation coefficient between marine export production and dust storm frequency in the core area of the dust storms was significantly high, suggesting that aerosols generated by Asian dust storm are the source of iron for organic matter fixation in the North Pacific Ocean. These results suggest that there could be an interlocking chain for the change of atmospheric dust aerosol-soluble iron-marine export production.

The Dusty Dynamics Within a Regional Mars Dust Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafkin, Scot C. R.; Pla-Garcia, Jorge; Leung, Cecilia

2017-10-01

There have never been in situ observations at or near the active lifting center of a regional dust storm on Mars. In the absence of in situ data, it is common to employ numerical models to provide guidance on the physical processes and conditions operating in an unobserved location or weather system. Consequently, the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is employed to study the structure and dynamics of a simulated large regional storm using a fully interactive dust cycle. The simulations provide the first ever glimpse of the conditions that might occur inside one of these storms.The simulated storm shows extremely complex structure with narrow lifting centers and a variety of deep dust transport circulations. The active lifting centers are broadly into a mesoscale system in much the same way that thunderstorms on Earth can organize into mesoscale convective structures. In many of the active dusty plumes, the mixing ratio of dust peaks near the surface and drops off with height. Once lifted, the largest dust tends to sediment out while the smaller dust continues to be advected upward by the plume. This size-sorting process combined with entrainment of less dusty air tends to drive the mixing ratio profile to a maximum near the surface. In dusty plumes near the surface, the air temperature is as much as 20K colder than nearby areas. This is due to solar absorption higher in the dust column limiting direct heating deeper into the atmosphere. Overall, within the plume, there is an inversion, and although the top of the plume is warmer than below, it is near neutral buoyancy compared to the less dusty air on either side. Apparently, adiabatic cooling nearly offsets the expected positive heating perturbation at the top of the dusty plume. A very strong low level just forms in the vicinity of the storm, accompanied by system-wide negative pressure deficits and circulation patterns strongly suggestive of the wind-enhanced interaction of radiation and dust (WEIRD) feedback mechanism.

Desert dust hazards: A global review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, N. J.

2017-02-01

Dust storms originate in many of the world's drylands and frequently present hazards to human society, both within the drylands themselves but also outside drylands due to long-range transport of aeolian sediments. Major sources of desert dust include the Sahara, the Middle East, central and eastern Asia, and parts of Australia, but dust-raising occurs all across the global drylands and, on occasion, beyond. Dust storms occur throughout the year and they vary in frequency and intensity over a number of timescales. Long-range transport of desert dust typically takes place along seasonal transport paths. Desert dust hazards are here reviewed according to the three phases of the wind erosion system: where dust is entrained, during the transport phase, and on deposition. This paper presents a synthesis of these hazards. It draws on empirical examples in physical geography, medical geology and geomorphology to discuss case studies from all over the world and in various fields. These include accelerated soil erosion in agricultural zones - where dust storms represent a severe form of accelerated soil erosion - the health effects of air pollution caused by desert aerosols via their physical, chemical and biological properties, transport accidents caused by poor visibility during desert dust events, and impacts on electricity generation and distribution. Given the importance of desert dust as a hazard to human societies, it is surprising to note that there have been relatively few attempts to assess their impact in economic terms. Existing studies in this regard are also reviewed, but the wide range of impacts discussed in this paper indicates that desert dust storms deserve more attention in this respect.

The Martian Dust Cycle: Observations and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, Melinda A.

2013-01-01

The dust cycle is critically important for Mars' current climate system. Suspended atmospheric dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, and thus greatly influences the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Evidence for the presence of dust in the Martian atmosphere can be traced back to yellow clouds telescopically observed as early as the early 19th century. The Mariner 9 orbiter arrived at Mars in November of 1971 to find a planet completely enshrouded in airborne dust. Since that time, the exchange of dust between the planet's surface and atmosphere and the role of airborne dust on Mars' weather and climate has been studied using observations and numerical models. The goal of this talk is to give an overview of the observations and to discuss the successes and challenges associated with modeling the dust cycle. Dust raising events on Mars range in size from meters to hundreds of kilometers. During some years, regional storms merge to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by tens of kelvin. The interannual variability of planet encircling dust storms is poorly understood. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. A low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading are generally observed: one peak occurs before northern winter solstice and one peak occurs after northern winter solstice. Numerical modeling studies attempting to interactively simulate the Martian dust cycle with general circulation models (GCMs) include the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Two dust lifting processes are commonly represented in these models: wind-stress lifting (i.e., saltation) and dust devil lifting. Although the predicted patterns of dust lifting and atmospheric dust loading from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are many notable differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. For example, it is common for models to predict one peak in global dust loading near northern winter solstice due to excessive dust lifting in the Hellas basin at this season. Additionally, it is difficult for models to realistically capture the observed interannual variability in global dust storms. New avenues of dust cycle modeling research include exploring the effects of finite surface dust reservoirs and the effects of coupling the dust and water cycles on the predicted dust cycle.

Seasonal Temperature Pattern Indicating Martian Dust Storms

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-06-09

This graphic shows Martian atmospheric temperature data related to seasonal patterns in occurrence of large regional dust storms. The data shown here were collected by the Mars Climate Sounder instrument on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter over the course of one-half of a Martian year, during 2012 and 2013. The color coding indicates daytime temperatures of a layer of the atmosphere centered about 16 miles (25 kilometers) above ground level, corresponding to the color-key bar at the bottom of the graphic. Three regional dust storms indicated by increased temperatures are labeled A, B and C. A similar sequence of three large regional dust storms has been seen in atmosphere-temperature data from five other Martian years. The vertical axis is latitude on Mars, from the north pole at the top to south pole at the bottom. Each graphed data point is an average for all Martian longitudes around the planet. The horizontal axis is the time of year, spanning from the beginning of Mars' southern-hemisphere spring (on the left) to the end of southern-hemisphere summer. This is the half of the year when large Martian dust storms are most active. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20746

Electrical Charging Hazards Originating from the Surface (ECHOS): Understanding the Martian Electro-Meteorological Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrell, W. M.; Desch, M. D.; Marshall, J. R.; Delory, G. T.; Kolecki, J. C.; Hillard, G. B.; Kaiser, M. L.; Haberle, R. M.; Zent, A. P.; Luhmann, J. G.

2000-01-01

In 1999, the NASA/Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) enterprise selected a number of payloads to fly to the Martian surface in an 03 opportunity (prior to the MPL loss). Part of a proposed experiment, ECHOS, was selected to specifically understand the electrical charging hazards from tribocharged dust in the ambient atmosphere, in dust devils, and in larger storms. It is expected that Martian dust storms become tribocharged much like terrestrial dust devils which can possess almost a million elementary charges per cubic centimeter. The ECHOS package features a set of instruments for measuring electric effects: a radio to detect AC electric fields radiating from discharges in the storm,a DC electric field system for sensing electrostatic fields from concentrations of charged dust grains, and a lander electrometer chain for determining the induced potential on its body and MAV (Mars Ascent Vehicle) during the passages of a charged dust storm. Given that electricity is a systemic process originating from wind-blown dust, we also proposed to correlate the electrical measurements with fundamental fluid/meteorological observations, including wind velocity and vorticity, temperature, and pressure. Triboelectricity will also affect local chemistry, and chemical-sensing devices were also considered a feature of the package. The primary HEDS objectives of the ECHOS sensing suite is to discover and monitor the natural electrical hazards associated with dust devils and storms, and determine their enviro-effectiveness on human systems. However, ECHOS also has a strong footprint in the overarching science objectives of the Mars Surveyor Program.

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global numerical weather prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulcahy, J. P.; Walters, D. N.; Bellouin, N.; Milton, S. F.

2014-05-01

The inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high-resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three-dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing long-wave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propagate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high-latitude clean-air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short-range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low-level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol-cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global NWP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulcahy, J. P.; Walters, D. N.; Bellouin, N.; Milton, S. F.

2013-11-01

Inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing longwave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propogate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high latitude clean air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a~more realistic treatment of aerosol-cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

Seasonal Contribution of Mineral Dust and Otlher Major Components to Particulate Matter at Two Remote Sites in Central Asia

EPA Science Inventory

Dust storms are significant contributors to ambient levels of particulate matter (PM) in many areas of the world. Central Asia, an area that is relatively understudied in this regard, is anticipated to be affected by dust storms due to its proximity to several major deserts that ...

A Numerical Simulation (Study) of a Strong West Coast December 2014 Winter Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smelser, I.; Xu, L.; Amerault, C. M.; Baker, N. L.; Satterfield, E.; Chua, B.

2016-12-01

From December 10 through December 13, 2014, a powerful winter storm swept across the western US coastal states bringing widespread power outages, numerous downed trees and power lines, heavy rains, flooding and even a tornado in the Los Angeles basin. This windstorm was the strongest since October 2009, and was similar to classic wind storms such as the 1962 Columbus Day Storm (Read, 2015).The storm started developing over the Pacific Ocean north of Hawaii on Nov. 30, and formed an atmospheric river that eventually stretched from Hawaii to the west coast. The storm initially hit the Pacific Northwest on Dec. 9th and then split. The highest precipitation amounts started in British Colombia and moved south along the coast. By the Dec. 11th, the highest precipitation amounts were near San Francisco (CA). The peak wind gust (14.4 ms-1) for Monterey (CA) occurred at 1116Z on Dec. 11th while the heaviest 6-hr precipitation (42.9 mm) occurred between 18Z on Dec. 11th to 00Z on Dec. 12th. By Dec. 12th, the storm was centered over Southern California.This storm was poorly forecast by many operational NWP models even 2-3 days in advance (Mass, 2014). The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) showed considerably variability between successive model runs, and significant differences existed between Environment Canada, UK Met Office and ECMWF model forecasts. To study this extreme weather event, we used the Navy global (NAVGEM) and mesoscale (COAMPS®) NWP models, and compared the resulting forecasts to observations, satellite imagery and ECMWF (TIGGE) forecasts. NAVGEM, with Hybrid 4DVar, was run with a resolution of 31 km, and generated the boundary conditions for COAMPS® 4DVar and forecasts, that were run with triple-nested grids of 27, 9, and 3 km. The MesoWest data from the University of Utah were used for forecast verification, and to locate the times of highest precipitation and wind speed for different points along the coast. Both the online API and the python module were used to access and pull information from the data base. Overall, both NAVGEM and COAMPS® predicted the storm well. NAVGEM predicted the storm to be slower and more powerful than the analyses. The NAVGEM analysis and corresponding 5-day forecast accumulated 6-hr precipitation (Fig. 1) for Dec. 12th at 00Z agree well with the observed precipitation (4.29 cm) for Monterey (KMRY).

WMO SDS-WAS NAMEE Regional Center: Towards continuous evaluation of dust models in Northern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basart, Sara; García-Castillo, Gerardo; Cuevas, Emilio; Terradellas, Enric

2016-04-01

One of the most important activities of the Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe of the World Meteorological Organization's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (WMO SDS-WAS, http://sds-was.aemet.es) is the dust model intercomparison and forecast evaluation, which is deemed an indispensable service to the users and an invaluable tool to assess model skills. Currently, the Regional Center collects daily dust forecasts from models run by nine partners (BSC, ECMWF, NASA, NCEP, SEEVCCC, EMA, CNR-ISAC, NOA and UK Met Office). A multi-model ensemble has also been set up in an effort to provide added-value products to the users. The first problem to address the dust model evaluation is the scarcity of suitable routine observations near the Sahara, the world's largest source of mineral dust. The present contribution presents preliminary results of dust model evaluation using new observational datasets. The current routine evaluation of dust predictions is focused on total-column dust optical depth (DOD) and uses remote-sensing retrievals from sun-photometric (AERONET) and satellite (MODIS) measurements. However, most users of dust forecasts are interested in the concentration near the surface (in the air we breathe) rather than in the total column content. Therefore, evaluation of the predicted surface concentration is also necessary. In this context, the initiative of the African Monsoon Interdisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) International Program to establish permanent measuring stations in the Sahel is extremely important. Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance (TEOM) monitors continuously record PM10 in M'Bour (Senegal); Cinzana (Mali) and Banizoumbou (Niger). This surface model evaluation is complemented with the PM10 observation from the Air Quality Control and Monitoring Network (AQCMN) of the Canary Islands (Spain). The region, located in the sub-tropical Eastern Atlantic (roughly 100 km west of the Moroccan coast), is frequently affected by intrusions of Saharan dust. Regional Node are evaluated during two years (2013-2014) with observations recorded in the Sahelian region and Canary Islands. Additionally, since the data sets of weather records have an excellent spatial and temporal coverage, observations of horizontal visibility included in meteorological reports are used as an alternative way to monitor dust events in near-real-time (NRT). Recently, a new visibility product that includes more than 1,500 METAR stations has implemented in the SDS-WAS NAMEE Regional Center. The present contribution also will demonstrate how the visibility can complement the information provided by other observing systems (air quality monitoring stations, sun photometers, vertical profilers or satellite products) and numerical simulations presenting its application in tracking several dust episodes. Otherwise, the vertical distribution of aerosol also influences the radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere, especially when aerosols have strong absorption of shortwave radiation. The free troposphere contribution to aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the altitude of lofted layers are provided thanks to the vertical profiling capability of the lidar/ceilomenter technique. Currently, a lidar located in Dakar (Senegal) and a ceilometer in Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) provide near-real-time (NRT) vertical profiles of aerosols, which are compared with those simulated by models.

Improvement of Storm Forecasts Using Gridded Bayesian Linear Regression for Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Schwartz, C. S.

2017-12-01

Bayesian linear regression (BLR) is a post-processing technique in which regression coefficients are derived and used to correct raw forecasts based on pairs of observation-model values. This study presents the development and application of a gridded Bayesian linear regression (GBLR) as a new post-processing technique to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) of rain and wind storm forecasts over northeast United States. Ten controlled variables produced from ten ensemble members of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) real-time prediction system are used for a GBLR model. In the GBLR framework, leave-one-storm-out cross-validation is utilized to study the performances of the post-processing technique in a database composed of 92 storms. To estimate the regression coefficients of the GBLR, optimization procedures that minimize the systematic and random error of predicted atmospheric variables (wind speed, precipitation, etc.) are implemented for the modeled-observed pairs of training storms. The regression coefficients calculated for meteorological stations of the National Weather Service are interpolated back to the model domain. An analysis of forecast improvements based on error reductions during the storms will demonstrate the value of GBLR approach. This presentation will also illustrate how the variances are optimized for the training partition in GBLR and discuss the verification strategy for grid points where no observations are available. The new post-processing technique is successful in improving wind speed and precipitation storm forecasts using past event-based data and has the potential to be implemented in real-time.

Oxidant enhancement in martian dust devils and storms: storm electric fields and electron dissociative attachment.

PubMed

Delory, Gregory T; Farrell, William M; Atreya, Sushil K; Renno, Nilton O; Wong, Ah-San; Cummer, Steven A; Sentman, Davis D; Marshall, John R; Rafkin, Scot C R; Catling, David C

2006-06-01

Laboratory studies, numerical simulations, and desert field tests indicate that aeolian dust transport can generate atmospheric electricity via contact electrification or "triboelectricity." In convective structures such as dust devils and dust storms, grain stratification leads to macroscopic charge separations and gives rise to an overall electric dipole moment in the aeolian feature, similar in nature to the dipolar electric field generated in terrestrial thunderstorms. Previous numerical simulations indicate that these storm electric fields on Mars can approach the ambient breakdown field strength of approximately 25 kV/m. In terrestrial dust phenomena, potentials ranging from approximately 20 to 160 kV/m have been directly measured. The large electrostatic fields predicted in martian dust devils and storms can energize electrons in the low pressure martian atmosphere to values exceeding the electron dissociative attachment energy of both CO2 and H2O, which results in the formation of the new chemical products CO/O- and OH/H-, respectively. Using a collisional plasma physics model, we present calculations of the CO/O- and OH/H- reaction and production rates. We demonstrate that these rates vary geometrically with the ambient electric field, with substantial production of dissociative products when fields approach the breakdown value of approximately 25 kV/m. The dissociation of H2O into OH/H- provides a key ingredient for the generation of oxidants; thus electrically charged dust may significantly impact the habitability of Mars.

A report from the Space Science and Engineering Center, the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Operational forecasters have habitually been plagued with the problems associated with acquisition, display, and dissemination of data used in preparing forecasts. The centralized storm information system (CSIS) experiment provided an operational forecaster with an interactive computer system which could perform these preliminary tasks more quickly and accurately than any human could. CSIS objectives pertaining to improved severe storms forecasting and warning procedures are addressed.

Bill spurs efforts to improve forecasting of inland flooding from tropical storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Newly-enacted U.S. legislation to reduce the threat of inland flooding from tropical storms could provide a "laser beam" focus to dealing with this natural hazard, according to Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.), the chief sponsor of the bill.The Tropical Cyclone Inland Forecasting Improvement and Warning System Development Act, (PL. 107-253), signed into law on 29 October, authorizes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) to improve the capability to accurately forecast inland flooding from tropical storms through research and modeling.

Impact of the 4 April 2014 Saharan dust outbreak on the photovoltaic power generation in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieger, Daniel; Steiner, Andrea; Bachmann, Vanessa; Gasch, Philipp; Förstner, Jochen; Deetz, Konrad; Vogel, Bernhard; Vogel, Heike

2017-11-01

The importance for reliable forecasts of incoming solar radiation is growing rapidly, especially for those countries with an increasing share in photovoltaic (PV) power production. The reliability of solar radiation forecasts depends mainly on the representation of clouds and aerosol particles absorbing and scattering radiation. Especially under extreme aerosol conditions, numerical weather prediction has a systematic bias in the solar radiation forecast. This is caused by the design of numerical weather prediction models, which typically account for the direct impact of aerosol particles on radiation using climatological mean values and the impact on cloud formation assuming spatially and temporally homogeneous aerosol concentrations. These model deficiencies in turn can lead to significant economic losses under extreme aerosol conditions. For Germany, Saharan dust outbreaks occurring 5 to 15 times per year for several days each are prominent examples for conditions, under which numerical weather prediction struggles to forecast solar radiation adequately. We investigate the impact of mineral dust on the PV-power generation during a Saharan dust outbreak over Germany on 4 April 2014 using ICON-ART, which is the current German numerical weather prediction model extended by modules accounting for trace substances and related feedback processes. We find an overall improvement of the PV-power forecast for 65 % of the pyranometer stations in Germany. Of the nine stations with very high differences between forecast and measurement, eight stations show an improvement. Furthermore, we quantify the direct radiative effects and indirect radiative effects of mineral dust. For our study, direct effects account for 64 %, indirect effects for 20 % and synergistic interaction effects for 16 % of the differences between the forecast including mineral dust radiative effects and the forecast neglecting mineral dust.

The impact of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on springtime dust activity in Syria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, B.; Ginoux, P. A.

2016-12-01

The increasing trend of aerosol optical depth in the Middle East and a recent severe dust storm in Syria have raised questions as whether dust storms will increase and promoted investigations on the dust activities driven by the natural climate variability underlying the ongoing human perturbations such as the Syrian civil war. This study examined the influences of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on dust activities in Syria using an innovative dust optical depth (DOD) dataset derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products. A significantly negative correlation is found between the Syrian DOD and the PDO in spring from 2003-2015. High DOD in spring is associated with lower geopotential height over the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa, accompanied by near surface anomalous westerly winds over the Mediterranean basin and southerly winds over the eastern Arabian Peninsula. These large-scale patterns promote the formation of the cyclones over the Middle East to trigger dust storms and also facilitate the transport of dust from North Africa, Iraq, and Saudi Arabian to Syria, where the transported dust dominates the seasonal mean DOD in spring. A negative PDO not only creates circulation anomalies favorable to high DOD in Syria but also suppresses precipitation in dust source regions over the eastern and southern Arabian Peninsula and northeastern Africa. On the daily scale, in addition to the favorable large-scale condition associated with a negative PDO, enhanced atmospheric instability in Syria associated with increased precipitation in Turkey and northern Syria is also critical for the development of strong springtime dust storms in Syria.

The impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on springtime dust activity in Syria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Bing; Ginoux, Paul

2016-10-01

The increasing trend of aerosol optical depth in the Middle East and a recent severe dust storm in Syria have raised questions as to whether dust storms will increase and promoted investigations on the dust activities driven by the natural climate variability underlying the ongoing human perturbations such as the Syrian civil war. This study examined the influences of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on dust activities in Syria using an innovative dust optical depth (DOD) dataset derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products. A significantly negative correlation is found between the Syrian DOD and the PDO in spring from 2003 to 2015. High DOD in spring is associated with lower geopotential height over the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa, accompanied by near-surface anomalous westerly winds over the Mediterranean basin and southerly winds over the eastern Arabian Peninsula. These large-scale patterns promote the formation of the cyclones over the Middle East to trigger dust storms and also facilitate the transport of dust from North Africa, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia to Syria, where the transported dust dominates the seasonal mean DOD in spring. A negative PDO not only creates circulation anomalies favorable to high DOD in Syria but also suppresses precipitation in dust source regions over the eastern and southern Arabian Peninsula and northeastern Africa.On the daily scale, in addition to the favorable large-scale condition associated with a negative PDO, enhanced atmospheric instability in Syria (associated with increased precipitation in Turkey and northern Syria) is also critical for the development of strong springtime dust storms in Syria.

Operational Impact of Data Collected from the Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft During SHOUT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wick, G. A.; Dunion, J. P.; Sippel, J.; Cucurull, L.; Aksoy, A.; Kren, A.; Christophersen, H.; Black, P.

2017-12-01

The primary scientific goal of the Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Project was to determine the potential utility of observations from high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems such as the Global Hawk (GH) aircraft to improve operational forecasts of high-impact weather events or mitigate potential degradation of forecasts in the event of a future gap in satellite coverage. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones are among the most potentially destructive high-impact weather events and pose a major forecasting challenge to NOAA. Major winter storms over the Pacific Ocean, including atmospheric river events, which make landfall and bring strong winds and extreme precipitation to the West Coast and Alaska are also important to forecast accurately because of their societal impact in those parts of the country. In response, the SHOUT project supported three field campaigns with the GH aircraft and dedicated data impact studies exploring the potential for the real-time data from the aircraft to improve the forecasting of both tropical cyclones and landfalling Pacific storms. Dropsonde observations from the GH aircraft were assimilated into the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models. The results from several diverse but complementary studies consistently demonstrated significant positive forecast benefits spanning the regional and global models. Forecast skill improvements within HWRF reached up to about 9% for track and 14% for intensity. Within GFS, track skill improvements for multi-storm averages exceeded 10% and improvements for individual storms reached over 20% depending on forecast lead time. Forecasted precipitation was also improved. Impacts for Pacific winter storms were smaller but still positive. The results are highly encouraging and support the potential for operational utilization of data from a platform like the GH. This presentation summarizes the observations collected and highlights the multiple impact studies completed.

Conditions and Dynamics Within a Regional Mars Dust Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafkin, S. C.; Pla-García, J.; Leung, C. W. S.

2017-12-01

There have never been in situ observations at or near the active lifting center of a regional dust storm on Mars. In the absence of in situ data, it is common to employ numerical models to provide guidance on the physical processes and conditions operating in an unobserved location or weather system. Consequently, the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is employed to study the structure and dynamics of a simulated large regional storm using a fully interactive dust cycle. The simulations provide the first ever glimpse of the conditions that might occur inside one of these storms. The simulated storm shows extremely complex structure, highly heterogeneous lifting centers, and a variety of deep dust transport circulations. The active lifting centers show broader organization into a mesoscale system in much the same way that thunderstorms on Earth can organize into mesoscale convective structures. In many of the active dust plumes, the mixing ratio of dust peaks near the surface and drops off with height. The surface mixing ratio maximum is partly due to the surface being the source of dust, with entrainment of less dusty air as the plume rises. However, it is also because the mixing ratio can be dominated by a few large dust aerosol, since the mass is proportional to the cubed of the radius. Once lifted, the largest dust tends to sediment out while the smaller dust continues to be advected upward by the plume. This size-sorting process tends to drive the mixing ratio profile to a maximum near the surface. In dusty plumes near the surface, the air temperature is as much as 20K colder than nearby areas. This is due to solar absorption higher in the dust column limiting direct heating deeper into the atmosphere. Overall, within the plume, there is an inversion, and although the top of the plume is warmer than below, it is near neutral buoyancy compared to the less dusty air on either side. Apparently, adiabatic cooling nearly offsets the expected positive heating perturbation at the top of the dusty plume. A very strong low level just forms in the vicinity of the storm, accompanied by system-wide negative pressure deficits and circulation patterns strongly suggestive of the wind-enhanced interaction of radiation and dust (WEIRD) feedback mechanism.

The radioactivity of seasonal dust storms in the Middle East: the May 2012 case study in Jordan.

PubMed

Hamadneh, Hamed S; Ababneh, Zaid Q; Hamasha, Khadeejeh M; Ababneh, Anas M

2015-02-01

Dust storms in the Middle East are common during spring. Some of these storms are massive and carry a large amount of dust from faraway regions, which pose health and pollution risks. The huge dust storm event occurred in early May, 2012 was investigated for its radioactive content using gamma ray spectroscopy. Dust samples were collected from Northern Jordan and it was found that the storm carried a large amount of both artificial and natural radioactivity. The average activity concentration of fallout (137)Cs was 17.0 Bq/kg which is larger than that found in soil (2.3 Bq/kg), and this enrichment is attributed to particle size effects. (7)Be which is of atmospheric origin and has a relatively short half-life, was detected in dust with relatively large activity concentrations, as it would be expected, with an average of 2860 Bq/kg, but it was not detected in soil. Despite the large activity concentration of (7)Be, dose assessment showed that it does not contribute significantly to the effective dose through inhalation. The concentrations of the primodial nuclides (40)K, (232)Th and (238)U were 547, 30.0 and 49.3 Bq/kg, respectively. With the exception of (40)K, these were comparable to what was found in soil. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The return period analysis of natural disasters with statistical modeling of bivariate joint probability distribution.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Liu, Xueqin; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng

2013-01-01

New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Global Albedo Variations on Mars from Recent MRO/MARCI and Other Space-Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J. F., III; Wellington, D. F.

2017-12-01

Dramatic changes in Mars surface albedo have been quantified by telescopic, orbital, and surface-based observations over the last 40 years. These changes provide important inputs for global and mesoscale climate models, enabling characterization of seasonal and secular variations in the distribution of mobile surface materials (dust, sand) in the planet's current climate regime. Much of the modern record of dust storms and albedo changes comes from synoptic-scale global imaging from the Viking Orbiter, Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) missions, as well as local-scale observations from long-lived surface platforms like the Spirit and Opportunity rovers. Here we focus on the substantial time history of global-scale images acquired from the MRO Mars Color Imager (MARCI). MARCI is a wide-angle multispectral imager that acquires daily coverage of most of the surface at up to 1 km/pixel. MARCI has been in orbit since 2006, providing six Mars years of continuous surface and atmospheric observations, and building on the nearly five previous Mars years of global-scale imaging from the MGS Mars Orbiter Camera Wide Angle (MOC/WA) imager, which operated from 1997 to 2006. While many of the most significant MARCI-observed changes in the surface albedo are the result of large dust storms, other regions experience seasonal darkening events that repeat with different degrees of annual regularity. Some of these are associated with local dust storms, while for others, frequent surface changes take place with no associated evidence for dust storms, suggesting action by seasonally-variable winds and/or small-scale storms/dust devils too small to resolve. Discrete areas of dramatic surface changes across widely separated regions of Tharsis and in portions of Solis Lacus and Syrtis Major are among the regions where surface changes have been observed without a direct association to specific detectable dust storm events. Deposition following the annual southern summer dusty season plays a significant role in maintaining the cyclic nature of these changes. These and other historical observations also show that major regional or global-scale dust storms produce unique changes that may require several Mars years to reverse.

Dust Storm in Southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Along historic Route 66, just southeast of the little town of Amboy, California, lies a dried-up lake. Dry lakebeds are good sources of two things: salt and dust. In this image, the now-parched Bristol Lake offers up both. On April 12, 2007, dust storms menaced the area around Amboy. To the northwest, near Newberry Springs, California, dust hampered visibility and led to a multi-car collision on Interstate 40, killing two people and injuring several others. The same day, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this image of a dust storm in the dry remains of Bristol Lake. Many small dust clouds boil up from the ground surface, casting their shadows to the northwest. A bright white cloud floating over the dust also throws its shadow onto the ground below. East of the dust storm are salt works that stand out from the surrounding landscape thanks to their straight lines and sharp angles. Dark ground surfaces alternate with mined white salt in a network of stripes. When lakes evaporate, chemicals that had been dissolved in the water stay behind, making dry lake beds an ideal place to find heavy concentrations of minerals, including salt. Besides the salt works, something else appears in stark contrast to this arid place. Lush green fields of irrigated crops appear in the east. Besides their color, their orderly arrangement reveals their human-made origin.

Sand and Dust on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greeley, Ronald; Haberle, Robert M.

1991-01-01

Mars is a planet of high scientific interest. Various studies are currently being made that involve vehicles that have landed on Mars. Because Mars is known to experience frequent wind storms, mission planners and engineers require knowledge of the physical and chemical properties of Martian windblown sand and dust, and the processes involved in the origin and evolution of sand and dust storms.

X-ray spectrometry of individual Asian dust-storm particles over the Japanese islands and the North Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Kikuo; Naruse, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Toyoaki; Nemoto, Osamu; Iwasaka, Yasunobu; Wu, Pei-Ming; Ono, Akira; Duce, Robert A.; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Merrill, John T.; Arao, Kimio

Individual aerosol particles were collected during spring 1986 near the surface over the Japanese islands (Nagasaki and Nagoya) and the North Pacific Ocean near Hawaii. Asian dust-storm particles found in these samples were examined by use of an electron microscope equipped with an energy-dispersive X-ray analyzer (EDX). These dust-storm particles usually consisted of Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti and Fe, together with S and Cl. For the individual particles collected over Japan, changes in morphological features and in the amounts of elements before and after the dialysis (extraction) of water-soluble material were studied. The examination indicated that the dust particles were present as mixed particles (internal mixture of water-soluble and -insoluble material), wheras the the water-soluble material mainly contained Ca and S. Over the North Pacific Ocean, the dust-storm particles were present internally in sea-salt particles. It is suggested that the internal mixture of minerals and sea-salt is probably due to interaction within clouds. Formation of CaSO 4 on the dust particles was also suggested on the basis of quantitative results obtained by the use of the EDX.

The Use of Pre-Storm Boundary-Layer Baroclinicity in Determining and Operationally Implementing the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, Joseph; Pietrafes, Leonard J.

The lateral motion of the Gulf Stream off the eastern seaboard of the United States during the winter season can act to dramatically enhance the low-level baroclinicity within the coastal zone during periods of offshore cold advection. The ralative close proximity of the Gulf Stream current off the mid-Atlantic coast can result in the rapid and intense destabilization of the marine atmospheric boundary layer directly above and shoreward of the Gulf Stream within this region. This airmass modification period often precedes either wintertime coastal cyclogenesis or the cyclonic re-development of existing mid-latitude cyclones. A climatological study investigating the relationship between the severity of the pre-storm, cold advection period and subsequent cyclogenic intensification was undertaken by Cione et al. in 1993. Findings from this study illustrate that the thermal structure of the continental airmass as well as the position of the Gulf Stream front relative to land during the pre-storm period (i.e., 24-48 h prior to the initial cyclonic intensification) are linked to the observed rate of surface cyclonic deepening for storms that either advected into or initially developed within the Carolina-southeast Virginia offshore coastal zone. It is a major objective of this research to test the potential operational utility of this pre-storm low level baroclinic linkage to subsequent cyclogenesis in an actual National Weather Service (NWS) coastal winter storm forecast setting.The ability to produce coastal surface cyclone intensity forecasts recently became available to North Carolina State University researchers and NWS forecasters. This statistical forecast guidance utilizes regression relationships derived from a nine-season (January 1982-April 1990), 116-storm study conducted previously. During the period between February 1994 and February 1996, the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII) was successfully implemented in an operational setting by the NWS at the Raleigh-Durham (RAH) forecast office for 10 winter storms. Analysis of these ASCII forecasts will be presented.

Atmospheric Pressure Patterns Before and During Dust Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-11-27

This graph compares a typical daily pattern of changing atmospheric pressure blue with the pattern during a regional dust storm hundreds of miles away red. The data are by the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station REMS on NASA Curiosity rover.

Development of A Dust Climate Indicator for the US National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, D.; Wang, J. X. L.; Gill, T. E.; Van Pelt, S.; Kim, D.

2016-12-01

Dust activity is a relatively simple but practical indicator to document the response of dryland ecosystems to climate change, making it an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). We present here a multi-agency collaboration that aims at developing a suite of dust climate indicators to document and monitor the long-term variability and trend of dust storm activity in the western United States. Recent dust observations have revealed rapid intensification of dust storm activity in the western United States. This trend is also closely correlated with a rapid increase in dust deposition in rainwater and "valley fever" hospitalization in southwestern states. It remains unclear, however, if such a trend, when enhanced by predicted warming and rainfall oscillation in the Southwest, will result in irreversible environmental development such as desertification or even another "Dust Bowl". Based on continuous ground aerosol monitoring, we have reconstructed a long-term dust storm climatology in the western United States. We report here direct evidence of rapid intensification of dust storm activity over US deserts in the past decades (1990 to 2013), in contrast to the decreasing trends in Asia and Africa. The US trend is spatially and temporally correlated with incidences of valley fever, an infectious disease caused by soil-dwelling fungus that has increased eight-fold in the past decade. We further investigate the linkage between dust variations and possible climate drivers and find that the regional dust trends are likely driven by large-scale variations of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, with the strongest correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Future study will explore the link between the temporal and spatial trends of increase in dustiness and vegetation change in southwestern semi-arid and arid ecosystems.

Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allsopp, Jim; And Others

1996-01-01

Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

Military Hydrology. Report 8. Feasibility of Utilizing Satellite and Radar Data in Hydrologic Forecasting.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

Extratropical Storm ," Draft Report. Atlas, David. 1964. "Advances in Radar Meteorology," Advances in Geophysics, Vol 10, Academic Press, N.Y., pp 318-478. Barnes...forecasting purposes, data on storm morphology, direction of movement, and rate of movement are re- quired in addition to the data cited above. 7...or storm duration. He also showed that, for a given sampling error, the gage density needed for warm season storms was two to three times greater than

The Impacts of Dust Storm Particles on Human Lung Cells - an Analysis at the Single Cell Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardon-Dryer, K.; Mock, C.; Reyes, J.; Lahav, G.

2017-12-01

Aerosols particles (Natural and anthropogenic) are a key component of our atmosphere, their presence defines air quality levels and they can affect our health. Small particles penetrate into our lungs and this exposure can cause our lung cells to stress and in some cases leads to the death of the cells and to inflammation. During dust storm events there is an increase in particle concentration, many of them are breathable particles that can penetrate deep into our lungs. Exposure to dust particles can lead to respiratory problems, particularly for people with asthma. Therefore, during and after a dust storm event the number of people who are hospitalized with inflammation and respiratory problems increase. However, the exact mechanism that causes these health problems is still unclear. In this project, we are investigating the impacts that dust storm particles from different sources and of different concentrations (doses) have on human lung cells, performing a new and unique analysis at the single cell level. To accomplish this, each individual lung cell is continuously tracked after being exposed to dust particles. We monitor the behavior of the cell over time, identify the cells time of death and type of death (e.g. cell explosion). With this analysis, we can quantify cell death as a function of dust concertation (doses); to our surprise, an increase in cells death was not observed only as a function of an increase of dust concertation. In addition, we noticed that the way particles come in contact with cells, by sticking to or being engulfed by, and the interaction duration has an effect; cells that interact with dust particles for a longer period died earlier compared to cells with a shorter interaction period. These findings will help us to better understand the health related consequences of exposure to dust storm events and serve as a baseline for when evaluating other aerosol.

Adaptive use of research aircraft data sets for hurricane forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, M. K.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

2008-02-01

This study uses an adaptive observational strategy for hurricane forecasting. It shows the impacts of Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) and dropsonde data sets from Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX) field campaigns on hurricane track and intensity forecasts. The following cases are used in this study: Bonnie, Danielle and Georges of 1998 and Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto of 2001. A single model run for each storm is carried out using the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM) with the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis as initial conditions, in addition to 50 other model runs where the analysis is randomly perturbed for each storm. The centers of maximum variance of the DLM heights are located from the forecast error variance fields at the 84-hr forecast. Back correlations are then performed using the centers of these maximum variances and the fields at the 36-hr forecast. The regions having the highest correlations in the vicinity of the hurricanes are indicative of regions from where the error growth emanates and suggests the need for additional observations. Data sets are next assimilated in those areas that contain high correlations. Forecasts are computed using the new initial conditions for the storm cases, and track and intensity skills are then examined with respect to the control forecast. The adaptive strategy is capable of identifying sensitive areas where additional observations can help in reducing the hurricane track forecast errors. A reduction of position error by approximately 52% for day 3 of forecast (averaged over 7 storm cases) over the control runs is observed. The intensity forecast shows only a slight positive impact due to the model’s coarse resolution.

Assimilation of MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue Observations in the Dust Aerosol Component of NMMB-MONARCH version 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Di Tomaso, Enza; Schutgens, Nick A. J.; Jorba, Oriol; Perez Garcia-Pando, Carlos

2017-01-01

A data assimilation capability has been built for the NMMB-MONARCH chemical weather prediction system, with a focus on mineral dust, a prominent type of aerosol. An ensemble-based Kalman filter technique (namely the local ensemble transform Kalman filter - LETKF) has been utilized to optimally combine model background and satellite retrievals. Our implementation of the ensemble is based on known uncertainties in the physical parametrizations of the dust emission scheme. Experiments showed that MODIS AOD retrievals using the Dark Target algorithm can help NMMB-MONARCH to better characterize atmospheric dust. This is particularly true for the analysis of the dust outflow in the Sahel region and over the African Atlantic coast. The assimilation of MODIS AOD retrievals based on the Deep Blue algorithm has a further positive impact in the analysis downwind from the strongest dust sources of the Sahara and in the Arabian Peninsula. An analysis-initialized forecast performs better (lower forecast error and higher correlation with observations) than a standard forecast, with the exception of underestimating dust in the long-range Atlantic transport and degradation of the temporal evolution of dust in some regions after day 1. Particularly relevant is the improved forecast over the Sahara throughout the forecast range thanks to the assimilation of Deep Blue retrievals over areas not easily covered by other observational datasets.The present study on mineral dust is a first step towards data assimilation with a complete aerosol prediction system that includes multiple aerosol species.

Assimilation of MODIS Dark Target and Deep Blue observations in the dust aerosol component of NMMB-MONARCH version 1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Tomaso, Enza; Schutgens, Nick A. J.; Jorba, Oriol; Pérez García-Pando, Carlos

2017-03-01

A data assimilation capability has been built for the NMMB-MONARCH chemical weather prediction system, with a focus on mineral dust, a prominent type of aerosol. An ensemble-based Kalman filter technique (namely the local ensemble transform Kalman filter - LETKF) has been utilized to optimally combine model background and satellite retrievals. Our implementation of the ensemble is based on known uncertainties in the physical parametrizations of the dust emission scheme. Experiments showed that MODIS AOD retrievals using the Dark Target algorithm can help NMMB-MONARCH to better characterize atmospheric dust. This is particularly true for the analysis of the dust outflow in the Sahel region and over the African Atlantic coast. The assimilation of MODIS AOD retrievals based on the Deep Blue algorithm has a further positive impact in the analysis downwind from the strongest dust sources of the Sahara and in the Arabian Peninsula. An analysis-initialized forecast performs better (lower forecast error and higher correlation with observations) than a standard forecast, with the exception of underestimating dust in the long-range Atlantic transport and degradation of the temporal evolution of dust in some regions after day 1. Particularly relevant is the improved forecast over the Sahara throughout the forecast range thanks to the assimilation of Deep Blue retrievals over areas not easily covered by other observational datasets. The present study on mineral dust is a first step towards data assimilation with a complete aerosol prediction system that includes multiple aerosol species.

Dust Storm Impacts on Human Mars Mission Equipment and Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rucker, M. A.

2017-06-01

NASA has accumulated a wealth of experience between the Apollo program and robotic Mars rover programs, but key differences between those missions and a human Mars mission that will require unique approaches to mitigate potential dust storm concerns.

Introduction on the operational storm surge forecasting system in Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Jae-Il; Park, Kwang-Soon; Choi, Jung-Woon; Lee, Jong-Chan; Heo, Ki-Young; Kim, Sang-Ik

2017-04-01

During last more than 50 years, 258 typhoons passed and affected the Korean peninsula in terms of high winds, storm surges and extreme waves. In this study we explored the performance of the operational storm surge forecasting system in the Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) with 8 typhoons from 2010 to 2016. The operation storm surge forecasting system for the typhoon in KOOS is based on 2D depth averaged model with tides and CE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) wind model. Two key parameters of CE wind model, the locations of typhoon center and its central atmospheric pressure are based from Korea Meteorological administrative (KMA)'s typhoon information provided from 1 day to 3 hour intervals with the approach of typhoon through the KMA's web-site. For 8 typhoons cases, the overall errors, other performances and analysis such as peak time and surge duration are presented in each case. The most important factor in the storm surge errors in the operational forecasting system is the accuracy of typhoon passage prediction.

Dust Storm Signatures in Global Ionosphere Map of GPS Total Electron Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Fang-Tse; Shih, Ai-Ling; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Kuo, Cheng-Ling; Lin, Tang-Huang; Lien, Wei-Hung

2016-04-01

In this paper both MODIS data and GIM (global ionosphere map) TEC (total electron content) as well as numerical simulations are used to study ionospheric dust storm effects in May 2008. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the LTT (latitude-time-TEC) along the Sahara longitude simultaneously reach their maximum values on 28 May 2008. The LLT (latitude-longitude-TEC) map specifically and significantly increases over the Sahara region on 28 May 2008. The simulation suggests that the dust storm may change the atmospheric conductivity, which in turn modifies the GIM TEC over the Sahara area.

Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Córdoba, Argentina)

PubMed Central

Stein, Ariel F.

2016-01-01

Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite), and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic “fluffy” surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr), and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons. PMID:27258088

Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Córdoba, Argentina).

PubMed

Bucher, Enrique H; Stein, Ariel F

2016-01-01

Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite), and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic "fluffy" surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr), and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons.

Mars Atmospheric Chemistry in Electrified Dust Devils and Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrell, W. M.; Delory, G. T.; Atreya, S. K.; Wong, A.-S.; Renno, N. O.; Sentmann, D. D.; Marshall, J. G.; Cummer, S. A.; Rafkin, S.; Catling, D.

2005-01-01

Laboratory studies, simulations and desert field tests all indicate that aeolian mixing dust can generate electricity via contact electrification or "triboelectricity". In convective structures like dust devils or storms, grain stratification (or charge separation) occurs giving rise to an overall electric dipole moment to the aeolian feature, similar in nature to the dipolar electric field generated in terrestrial thunderstorms. Previous simulation studies [1] indicate that this storm electric field on Mars can approach atmospheric breakdown field strength of 20 kV/m. In terrestrial dust devils, coherent dipolar electric fields exceeding 20 kV/m have been measured directly via electric field instrumentation. Given the expected electrostatic fields in Martian dust devils and storms, electrons in the low pressure CO2 gas can be energized via the electric field to values exceeding the electron dissociative attachment energy of both CO2 and H2O, resulting in the formation of new chemical products CO and O- and OH and H- within the storm. Using a collisional plasma physics model we present a calculation of the CO/O- and OH/H- reaction and production rates. We demonstrate that these rates vary geometrically with ambient electric field, with substantial production of dissociative products when fields approach breakdown levels of 20-30 kV/m.

Identification of dust storm origin in South -West of Iran.

PubMed

Broomandi, Parya; Dabir, Bahram; Bonakdarpour, Babak; Rashidi, Yousef

2017-01-01

Deserts are the main sources of emitted dust, and are highly responsive to wind erosion. Low content of soil moisture and lack of vegetation cover lead to fine particle's release. One of the semi-arid bare lands in Iran, located in the South-West of Iran in Khoozestan province, was selected to investigate Sand and Dust storm potential. This paper focused on the metrological parameters of the sampling site, their changes and the relationship between these changes and dust storm occurrence, estimation of Reconaissance Drought Index, the Atterberg limits of soil samples and their relation with soil erosion ability, the chemical composition, size distribution of soil and airborne dust samples, and estimation of vertical mass flux by COMSALT through considering the effect of saffman force and interparticle cohesion forces during warm period (April-September) in 2010. The chemical compositions are measured with X-ray fluorescence, Atomic absorption spectrophotometer and X-ray diffraction. The particle size distribution analysis was conducted by using Laser particle size and sieve techniques. There was a strong negative correlation between dust storm occurrence and annual and seasonal rainfall and relative humidity. Positive strong correlation between annual and seasonal maximum temperature and dust storm frequency was seen. Estimation of RDI st in the studied period showed an extremely dry condition. Using the results of particle size distribution and soil consistency, the weak structure of soil was represented. X-ray diffraction analyses of soil and dust samples showed that soil mineralogy was dominated mainly by Quartz and calcite. X-ray fluorescence analyses of samples indicated that the most important major oxide compositions of the soil and airborne dust samples were SiO 2 , Al 2 O 3 , CaO, MgO, Na 2 O, and Fe 2 O 3 , demonstrating similar percentages for soil and dust samples. Estimation of Enrichment Factors for all studied trace elements in soil samples showed Br, Cl, Mo, S, Zn, and Hg with EF values higher than 10. The findings, showed the possible correlation between the degree of anthropogenic soil pollutants, and the remains of Iraq-Iran war. The results expressed sand and dust storm emission potential in this area, was illustrated with measured vertical mass fluxes by COMSALT.

Transpacific Transport of Dust to North American High-Elevation Sites: Integrated Dataset and Model Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassianov, E.; Pekour, M. S.; Flynn, C. J.; Berg, L. K.; Beranek, J.; Zelenyuk, A.; Zhao, C.; Leung, L. R.; Ma, P. L.; Riihimaki, L.; Fast, J. D.; Barnard, J.; Hallar, G. G.; McCubbin, I.; Eloranta, E. W.; McComiskey, A. C.; Rasch, P. J.

2017-12-01

Understanding the effects of dust on the regional and global climate requires detailed information on particle size distributions and their changes with distance from the source. Awareness is now growing about the tendency of the dust coarse mode with moderate ( 3.5 µm) volume median diameter (VMD) to be rather insensitive to complex removal processes associated with long-range transport of dust from the main sources. Our study, with a focus on the transpacific transport of dust, demonstrates that the impact of coarse mode aerosol (VMD 3µm) is well defined at the high-elevation mountain-top Storm Peak Laboratory (SPL, about 3.2 km MSL) and nearby Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Mobile Facility (AMF) during March 2011. Significant amounts of coarse mode aerosol are also found at the nearest Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) site. Outputs from the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) show that the major dust event is likely associated with transpacific transport of Asian and African plumes. Satellite data, including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and plume height from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidar data provide the observational support of the WRF-Chem simulations. Our study complements previous findings by indicating that the quasi-static nature of the coarse mode appears to be a reasonable approximation for Asian and African dust despite expected frequent orographic precipitation over mountainous regions in the western United States.

Remote-sensing-based analysis of landscape change in the desiccated seabed of the Aral Sea--a potential tool for assessing the hazard degree of dust and salt storms.

PubMed

Löw, F; Navratil, P; Kotte, K; Schöler, H F; Bubenzer, O

2013-10-01

With the recession of the Aral Sea in Central Asia, once the world's fourth largest lake, a huge new saline desert emerged which is nowadays called the Aralkum. Saline soils in the Aralkum are a major source for dust and salt storms in the region. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal land cover change dynamics in the Aralkum and discuss potential implications for the recent and future dust and salt storm activity in the region. MODIS satellite time series were classified from 2000-2008 and change of land cover was quantified. The Aral Sea desiccation accelerated between 2004 and 2008. The area of sandy surfaces and salt soils, which bear the greatest dust and salt storm generation potential increased by more than 36 %. In parts of the Aralkum desalinization of soils was found to take place within 4-8 years. The implication of the ongoing regression of the Aral Sea is that the expansion of saline surfaces will continue. Knowing the spatio-temporal dynamics of both the location and the surface characteristics of the source areas for dust and salt storms allows drawing conclusions about the potential hazard degree of the dust load. The remote-sensing-based land cover assessment presented in this study could be coupled with existing knowledge on the location of source areas for an early estimation of trends in shifting dust composition. Opportunities, limits, and requirements of satellite-based land cover classification and change detection in the Aralkum are discussed.

Characterization of aerosolized bacteria and fungi from desert dust events in Mali, West Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kellogg, C.A.; Griffin, Dale W.; Garrison, V.H.; Peak, K.K.; Royall, N.; Smith, R.R.; Shinn, E.A.

2004-01-01

Millions of metric tons of African desert dust blow across the Atlantic Ocean each year, blanketing the Caribbean and southeastern United States. Previous work in the Caribbean has shown that atmospheric samples collected during dust events contain living microbes, including plant and opportunistic human pathogens. To better understand the potential downwind public health and ecosystem effects of the dust microbes, it is important to characterize the source population. We describe 19 genera of bacteria and 3 genera of fungi isolated from air samples collected in Mali, a known source region for dust storms, and over which large dust storms travel.

Maintaining the Background Dust Opacity During Northern Hemisphere Summer Mars Using Wind Stress Based Dust Lifting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, V.; Kahre, M. A.

2017-12-01

The Mars atmosphere has low levels of dust during Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring and summer (the non-dusty season) and increased levels during NH autumn and winter (the dusty season). In the absence of regional or global storms, dust devils and local storms maintain a background minimum dust loading during the non-dusty season. While observational surveys and Global Climate Model (GCM) studies suggest that dust devils are likely to be major contributors to the background haze during NH spring and summer, a complete understanding of the relative contribution of dust devils and local dust storms has not yet been achieved. We present preliminary results from an investigation that focuses on the effects of radiatively active water ice clouds on dust lifting processes during these seasons. Water ice clouds are known to affect atmospheric temperatures directly by absorption and emission of thermal infrared radiation and indirectly through dynamical feedbacks. Our goal is to understand how clouds affect the contribution by local (wind stress) dust storms to the background dust haze during NH spring and summer. The primary tool for this work is the NASA Ames Mars GCM, which contains physical parameterizations for a fully interactive dust cycle. Three simulations that included wind stress dust lifting were executed for a period of 5 Martian years: a case that included no cloud formation, a case that included radiatively inert cloud formation and a case that included radiatively active cloud (RAC) formation. Results show that when radiatively active clouds are included, the clouds in the aphelion cloud belt radiatively heat the atmosphere aloft in the tropics (Figure 1). This heating produces a stronger overturning circulation, which in turn produces an enhanced low-level flow in the Hadley cell return branch. The stronger low-level flow drives higher surface stresses and increased dust lifting in those locations. We examine how realistic these simulated results are by comparing the spatial pattern of predicted wind stress lifting with a catalog of observed local storms. Better agreement is achieved in the radiatively active cloud case. These results suggest that wind stress lifting may contribute more to maintaining the background dust haze during NH spring and summer than what previous studies have shown.

The Potential Observation Network Design with Mesoscale Ensemble Sensitivities in Complex Terrain

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

in synoptic storms , extratropical transition and developing hurricanes. Because they rely on lagged covariances from a finite-sized ensemble, they...diagnose predictors of forecast error in synoptic storms , extratropical transition and developing hurricanes. Because they rely on lagged covariances...sensitivities can be used successfully to diagnose predictors of forecast error in synoptic storms (Torn and Hakim 2008), extratropical transition (Torn and

Comprehensive Flood Plain Studies Using Spatial Data Management Techniques.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-06-01

Hydrologic Engineer- ing Center computer programs that forecast urban storm water quality and dynamic in- stream water quality response to waste...determination. Water Quality The water quality analysis planned for the pilot study includes urban storm water quality forecasting and in-streamn...analysis is performed under the direction of Tony Thomas. Chief, Research Branch, by Jess Abbott for storm water quality analysis, R. G. Willey for

Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S. S.

2017-12-01

The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

Variability in the Correlation between Asian Dust Storms and Chlorophyll a Concentration from the North to Equatorial Pacific

PubMed Central

Tan, Sai-Chun; Yao, Xiaohong; Gao, Hui-Wang; Shi, Guang-Yu; Yue, Xu

2013-01-01

A long-term record of Asian dust storms showed seven high-occurrence-frequency centers in China. The intrusion of Asian dust into the downwind seas, including the China seas, the Sea of Japan, the subarctic North Pacific, the North Pacific subtropical gyre, and the western and eastern Equatorial Pacific, has been shown to add nutrients to ocean ecosystems and enhance their biological activities. To explore the relationship between the transported dust from various sources to the six seas and oceanic biological activities with different nutrient conditions, the correlation between monthly chlorophyll a concentration in each sea and monthly dust storm occurrence frequencies reaching the sea during 1997–2007 was examined in this study. No correlations were observed between dust and chlorophyll a concentration in the <50 m China seas because atmospheric deposition is commonly believed to exert less impact on coastal seas. Significant correlations existed between dust sources and many sea areas, suggesting a link between dust and chlorophyll a concentration in those seas. However, the correlation coefficients were highly variable. In general, the correlation coefficients (0.54–0.63) for the Sea of Japan were highest, except for that between the subarctic Pacific and the Taklimakan Desert, where it was as high as 0.7. For the >50 m China seas and the North Pacific subtropical gyre, the correlation coefficients were in the range 0.32–0.57. The correlation coefficients for the western and eastern Equatorial Pacific were relatively low (<0.36). These correlation coefficients were further interpreted in terms of the geographical distributions of dust sources, the transport pathways, the dust deposition, the nutrient conditions of oceans, and the probability of dust storms reaching the seas. PMID:23460892

Variability in the correlation between Asian dust storms and chlorophyll a concentration from the North to Equatorial Pacific.

PubMed

Tan, Sai-Chun; Yao, Xiaohong; Gao, Hui-Wang; Shi, Guang-Yu; Yue, Xu

2013-01-01

A long-term record of Asian dust storms showed seven high-occurrence-frequency centers in China. The intrusion of Asian dust into the downwind seas, including the China seas, the Sea of Japan, the subarctic North Pacific, the North Pacific subtropical gyre, and the western and eastern Equatorial Pacific, has been shown to add nutrients to ocean ecosystems and enhance their biological activities. To explore the relationship between the transported dust from various sources to the six seas and oceanic biological activities with different nutrient conditions, the correlation between monthly chlorophyll a concentration in each sea and monthly dust storm occurrence frequencies reaching the sea during 1997-2007 was examined in this study. No correlations were observed between dust and chlorophyll a concentration in the <50 m China seas because atmospheric deposition is commonly believed to exert less impact on coastal seas. Significant correlations existed between dust sources and many sea areas, suggesting a link between dust and chlorophyll a concentration in those seas. However, the correlation coefficients were highly variable. In general, the correlation coefficients (0.54-0.63) for the Sea of Japan were highest, except for that between the subarctic Pacific and the Taklimakan Desert, where it was as high as 0.7. For the >50 m China seas and the North Pacific subtropical gyre, the correlation coefficients were in the range 0.32-0.57. The correlation coefficients for the western and eastern Equatorial Pacific were relatively low (<0.36). These correlation coefficients were further interpreted in terms of the geographical distributions of dust sources, the transport pathways, the dust deposition, the nutrient conditions of oceans, and the probability of dust storms reaching the seas.

Adverse effects of inhaled sand dust particles on the respiratory organs of sheep and goats exposed to severe sand storms in Mongolia.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yoshimi; Shimada, Akinori; Nemoto, Mai; Morita, Takehito; Adilbish, Altanchimeg; Bayasgalan, Mungun-Ochir

2014-01-01

Sand storms in Mongolia have increased in frequency and scale, resulting in increased exposure of the inhabitants of Asian countries, including Japan and Korea, to Asian sand dust (ASD), which results in adverse effects on the respiratory system. However, there is no information on the health risks of severe sand storms in domestic animals in Mongolia. The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of sand dust particles on the respiratory organs, including the lungs and tracheobronchial lymph nodes, of sheep and goats exposed to severe sand storms in Mongolia. Seven adult sheep and 4 adult goats that had been exposed to sand storms and 3 sheep with no history of exposure were included in this study. Lung tissues and tracheobronchial lymph nodes were subjected to histopathological and immunohistochemical examination. The mineralogical contents of the lungs and lymph nodes were determined using inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy. Fibrosis and granulomatous lesions comprising macrophages containing fine sand dust particles were observed exclusively in the lungs of sheep and goats exposed to sand storms. The activity of macrophages was also demonstrated by the presence of IL-6, TNF, and lysozyme. In addition, silicon, which is the major element of ASD (kosa aerosol), was detected exclusively in the lung tissues of the exposed animals. Our findings suggest that exposure to sand dust particles may affect the respiratory systems of domestic animals during their relatively short life span.

Characterizing the Relationships Among Lightning and Storm Parameters: Lightning as a Proxy Variable

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Raghavan, R.; William, E.; Weber, M.; Boldi, B.; Matlin, A.; Wolfson, M.; Hodanish, S.; Sharp. D.

1997-01-01

We have gained important insights from prior studies that have suggested relationships between lightning and storm growth, decay, convective rain flux, vertical distribution of storm mass and echo volume in the region, and storm energetics. A study was initiated in the Summer of 1996 to determine how total (in-cloud plus ground) lightning observations might provide added knowledge to the forecaster in the determination and identification of severe thunderstorms and weather hazards in real-time. The Melbourne Weather Office was selected as a primary site to conduct this study because Melbourne is the only site in the world with continuous and open access to total lightning (LDAR) data and a Doppler (WSR-88D) radar. A Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Demonstration (LISDAD) system was integrated into the forecaster's workstation during the Summer 1996 to allow the forecaster to interact in real-time with the multi-sensor data being displayed. LISDAD currently ingests LDAR data, the cloud-to-ground National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, and the Melbourne radar data in f real-time. The interactive features provide the duty forecaster the ability to perform quick diagnostics on storm cells of interest. Upon selection of a storm cell, a pop-up box appears displaying the time-history of various storm parameters (e.g., maximum radar reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, NLDN and LDAR lightning flash rates, storm-based vertically integrated liquid water content). This product is archived to aid on detailed post-analysis.

Using NASA EOS in the Arabian and Saharan Deserts to Examine Dust Particle Size and Spectral Signature of Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenton, J. C.; Keeton, T.; Barrick, B.; Cowart, K.; Cooksey, K.; Florence, V.; Herdy, C.; Luvall, J. C.; Vasquez, S.

2012-12-01

Exposure to high concentrations of airborne particulate matter can have adverse effects on the human respiratory system. Ground-based studies conducted in Iraq have revealed the presence of potential human pathogens in airborne dust. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), airborne particulate matter below 2.5μm (PM2.5) can cause long-term damage to the human respiratory system. Given the relatively high incidence of new-onset respiratory disorders experienced by US service members deployed to Iraq, this research offers a new glimpse into how satellite remote sensing can be applied to questions related to human health. NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) can be used to determine spectral characteristics of dust particles, the depth of dust plumes, as well as dust particle sizes. Comparing dust particle size from the Sahara and Arabian Deserts gives insight into the composition and atmospheric transport characteristics of dust from each desert. With the use of NASA SeaWiFS DeepBlue Aerosol, dust particle sizes were estimated using Angström exponent. Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) equation was used to determine the distribution of particle sizes, the area of the dust storm, and whether silicate minerals were present in the dust. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra satellite was utilized in calculating BTD. Minimal research has been conducted on the spectral characteristics of airborne dust in the Arabian and Sahara Deserts. Mineral composition of a dust storm that occurred 17 April 2008 near Baghdad was determined using imaging spectrometer data from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Spectral Library and EO-1 Hyperion data. Mineralogy of this dust storm was subsequently compared to that of a dust storm that occurred over the Bodélé Depression in the Sahara Desert on 7 June 2003.

Influence of Asian dust storms on daily acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions.

PubMed

Teng, Joshua Chen-Yuan; Chan, Yun-Shan; Peng, Yu-I; Liu, Tsai-Ching

2016-01-01

This study was the first to explore the relationship between Asian dust storm events (ADS) and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospital admissions by applying time series models. Nationwide population-based hospitalization claims data in Taiwan were used. There were 143,063 AMI admissions during 2000-2009. An autoregressive with exogenous variables (ARX) time series model was used to investigate the dynamic connection between AMI hospital admissions and ADS events. AMI hospitalizations significantly spiked on post-ADS day three. Among the total population, 3.2 more cases of AMI admissions occurred on post-ADS day three. When the data were stratified by age and gender, the same delayed effect was present in the male population, especially those aged 45-64 and over 74. Our study shows that although an ADS event does not cause an immediate incidence of AMI, storms may increase AMI incidence through a delayed effect. Hence, AMI prevention is not only important during a dust storm, but particularly so in subsequent days. During the days after an ADS, exposure to dust should be minimized by staying indoors as much as possible and by wearing a mask when exposure to dust is unavoidable. This is especially true for working and older adults. Nurses at local public health centers can increase awareness and promote public safety by providing health information to local communities regarding the link between dust storms and AMI. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

PubMed

Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

2014-01-01

Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

The Use of OMPS Near Real Time Products in Volcanic Cloud Risk Mitigation and Smoke/Dust Air Quality Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftor, C. J.; Krotkov, N. A.; McPeters, R. D.; Li, J. Y.; Durbin, P. B.

2015-12-01

Near real time (NRT) SO2 and aerosol index (AI) imagery from Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has proven invaluable in mitigating the risk posed to air traffic by SO2 and ash clouds from volcanic eruptions. The OMI products, generated as part of NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) NRT system and available through LANCE and both NOAA's NESDIS and ESA's Support to Aviation Control Service (SACS) portals, are used to monitor the current location of volcanic clouds and to provide input into Volcanic Ash (VA) advisory forecasts. NRT products have recently been developed using data from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite onboard the Suomi NPP platform; they are currently being made available through the SACS portal and will shortly be incorporated into the LANCE NRT system. We will show examples of the use of OMPS NRT SO2 and AI imagery to monitor recent volcanic eruption events. We will also demonstrate the usefulness of OMPS AI imagery to detect and track dust storms and smoke from fires, and how this information can be used to forecast their impact on air quality in areas far removed from their source. Finally, we will show SO2 and AI imagery generated from our OMPS Direct Broadcast data to highlight the capability of our real time system.

Prediction of Aerosol Optical Depth in West Asia: Machine Learning Methods versus Numerical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omid Nabavi, Seyed; Haimberger, Leopold; Abbasi, Reyhaneh; Samimi, Cyrus

2017-04-01

Dust-prone areas of West Asia are releasing increasingly large amounts of dust particles during warm months. Because of the lack of ground-based observations in the region, this phenomenon is mainly monitored through remotely sensed aerosol products. The recent development of mesoscale Numerical Models (NMs) has offered an unprecedented opportunity to predict dust emission, and, subsequently Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), at finer spatial and temporal resolutions. Nevertheless, the significant uncertainties in input data and simulations of dust activation and transport limit the performance of numerical models in dust prediction. The presented study aims to evaluate if machine-learning algorithms (MLAs), which require much less computational expense, can yield the same or even better performance than NMs. Deep blue (DB) AOD, which is observed by satellites but also predicted by MLAs and NMs, is used for validation. We concentrate our evaluations on the over dry Iraq plains, known as the main origin of recently intensified dust storms in West Asia. Here we examine the performance of four MLAs including Linear regression Model (LM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and the Dust REgional Atmosphere Model (DREAM) are included as NMs. The MACC aerosol re-analysis of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) is also included, although it has assimilated satellite-based AOD data. Using the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) method, nine environmental features including soil moisture and temperature, NDVI, dust source function, albedo, dust uplift potential, vertical velocity, precipitation and 9-month SPEI drought index are selected for dust (AOD) modeling by MLAs. During the feature selection process, we noticed that NDVI and SPEI are of the highest importance in MLAs predictions. The data set was divided into a training (2003-2010) and a testing (2011-2013) subset. The evaluation using the two subsets shows that ANN outperformed all other MLAs and NMs. Verified to monthly mean MODIS DB AOD, ANN yielded a Spearman correlation coefficient (SCC) of 0.74, whereas SCC of 0.71 was allotted to WRF-chem simulations, as the most successful NM. In terms of simulation accuracy, SVM and MARS have yielded the lowest bias (-0.001) and RMSE (0.16). DREAM showed the poorest performance with a SCC of 0.52, a bias of -0.17 and a RMSE of 0.29.

Dust storm in Alaska

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-11-18

Dust storm in Alaska captured by Aqua/MODIS on Nov. 17, 2013 at 21:45 UTC. When glaciers grind against underlying bedrock, they produce a silty powder with grains finer than sand. Geologists call it “glacial flour” or “rock flour.” This iron- and feldspar-rich substance often finds its ways into rivers and lakes, coloring the water brown, grey, or aqua. When river or lake levels are low, the flour accumulates on drying riverbanks and deltas, leaving raw material for winds to lift into the air and create plumes of dust. Scientists are monitoring Arctic dust for a number of reasons. Dust storms can reduce visibility enough to disrupt air travel, and they can pose health hazards to people on the ground. Dust is also a key source of iron for phytoplankton in regional waters. Finally, there is the possibility that dust events are becoming more frequent and severe due to ongoing recession of glaciers in coastal Alaska. To read more about dust storm in this region go to: earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79518 Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

CALIPSO Satellite Lidar Identification Of Elevated Dust Over Australia Compared With Air Quality Model PM60 Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Stuart A.; Vaughan, Mark; Omar, Ali; Liu, Zhaoyan; Lee, Sunhee; Hu, Youngxiang; Cope, Martin

2008-01-01

Global measurements of the vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols have been recorded by the lidar on board the CALIPSO (Cloud Aerosol Lidar Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite since June 2006. Such extensive, height-resolved measurements provide a rare and valuable opportunity for developing, testing and validating various atmospheric models, including global climate, numerical weather prediction, chemical transport and air quality models. Here we report on the initial results of an investigation into the performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecast System (AAQFS) model in forecasting the distribution of elevated dust over the Australian region. The model forecasts of PM60 dust distribution are compared with the CALIPSO lidar Vertical Feature Mask (VFM) data product. The VFM classifies contiguous atmospheric regions of enhanced backscatter as either cloud or aerosols. Aerosols are further classified into six subtypes. By comparing forecast PM60 concentration profiles to the spatial distribution of dust reported in the CALIPSO VFM, we can assess the model s ability to predict the occurrence and the vertical and horizontal extents of dust events within the study area.

Water-soluble part of the aerosol in the dust storm season—evidence of the mixing between mineral and pollution aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ying; Zhuang, Guoshun; Sun, Yele; An, Zhisheng

Six dust episodes were observed in Beijing in 2002. Both TSP (Total Suspended Particulate, particle size smaller than 100 μm) and PM 2.5 (particle size smaller than 2.5 μm) aerosol samples in these episodes were collected and their characteristics of water-soluble part were elaborated in demonstrating the mixing of mineral aerosol with pollution aerosol in the long-range transport of Asia aerosols with various sources and different paths. The dust storm peaked on 20 March, in which the highest concentrations of TSP and PM 2.5 were 10.9 and 1.4 mg m -3, respectively. The mass fraction of water-soluble part generally decreased with the increase of dust intensity. SO 42- contributed 38-70% to the total anions and Ca 2+ contributed 37-80% to the total cations, indicating that SO 42- and Ca 2+ were the most abundant anion and cation, respectively. The major ions of the water-soluble parts could be classified into three groups, i.e., the crust ions (Ca 2+, Na +, and Mg 2+), the pollution-crust ions (SO 42-, Cl -, and K +), and the pollution ions (NO 3-, NH 4+, NO 2-, and F -). Crust ions and pollution ions were the main ion fractions in super dust and non-dust days, respectively, whereas the pollution-crust ions were the main ion fractions in both dust days of various dust intensity and non-dust days, which demonstrated clearly that the mixing between mineral and pollution aerosols was ubiquitous during the dust seasons (even in the super dust storm days) although it was more obvious in those normal and weak dust episodes. The main chemical species of the water-soluble part of the aerosols were CaCO 3 in the super dust storm, CaSO 4 in the normal and the weak dust events, and NH 4NO 3 in the non-dust event days. The secondary transformation of sulfate and nitrate occurred on dust particles both during and after dust days provided the strong evidence of the mixing between mineral and pollution aerosols during the long-range transport of dust.

Dust storm from Syria- a potential new aerosol source in the E. Mediterranean- A ceilometer and synoptic study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, Pinhas; Egert, Smadar; Uzan, Leenes

2017-04-01

On 7 Sep 2015 an unprecedented huge dust plume approached the SE Mediterranean basin from the northeast- Syria region. According to the Israeli meteorological service it is the first time in 75 years of measurements, that a dust storm reaches Israel early September, lasts several days and dust concentrations reach values 100 times the normal (1700µg/m3). Dust storms are normally monitored in the east Mediterranean using satellites and surface PM data. Obviously, these cannot show the vertical evolution of the dust including penetration, sinking and cleaning since vertical profiles are not available. High-resolution, micro Lidar Ceilometer network is gradually established in Israel. A few instruments of this network were already operational during the dust storm. The most crucial vertical information, monitored by these Ceilometers with 10m resolution vertically, every 16s, is analyzed. The difference in the cloud-layers allow the investigation of the high altitude of 1000m dust penetration, its sinking into the complex structured 250-500m mixed layer and the gradual 3D cleaning. This finding contradicts the conventional understanding that cleaning is due to gradual descent and shows not only the vertical fluctuation during the entire event but also the vertical rise to 2000m at the end of the event. The vertical information showed that the actual event period duration was 7 days, compared to only 90 hours based on traditional detectors. Is it a new dust source in the E. Mediterranean-long and short term trends?

Martian Dust Storm on May 18, 2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

[figure removed for brevity, see original site] Click on image for animation

This false-color polar map was generated from images obtained by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's Mars Color Imager (MARCI) on May 18, 2008. It shows a large local dust storm that researchers were monitoring to see if it would affect weather conditions at NASA's Phoenix spacecraft's landing site on landing day, May 25, 2008. The landing site is labeled and marked with the yellow dot.

The dust storm, indicated with yellow arrows in the close-up view, is the sinuous, light-colored feature to the left of the white northern polar cap at the center of the map.

This dust storm was too early and too far away to affect the lander.

The Phoenix Mission is led by the University of Arizona, Tucson, on behalf of NASA. Project management of the mission is by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. Spacecraft development is by Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver.

Desert dust and human health disorders.

PubMed

Goudie, Andrew S

2014-02-01

Dust storms may originate in many of the world's drylands and have an effect not only on human health in the drylands themselves but also in downwind environments, including some major urban centres, such as Phoenix, Kano, Athens, Madrid, Dubai, Jedda, Tehran, Jaipur, Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo, Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne. In some parts of the world dust storms occur frequently throughout the year. They can transport particulate material, pollutants, and potential allergens over thousands of km from source. The main sources include the Sahara, central and eastern Asia, the Middle East, and parts of the western USA. In some parts of the world, though not all, the frequency of dust storms is changing in response to land use and climatic changes, and in such locations the health implications may become more severe. Data on the PM10 and P2.5 loadings of dust events are discussed, as are various pollutants (heavy metals, pesticides, etc.) and biological components (spores, fungi, bacteria, etc.). Particulate loadings can far exceed healthy levels. Among the human health effects of dust storms are respiratory disorders (including asthma, tracheitis, pneumonia, allergic rhinitis and silicosis) cardiovascular disorders (including stroke), conjunctivitis, skin irritations, meningococcal meningitis, valley fever, diseases associated with toxic algal blooms and mortality and injuries related to transport accidents. © 2013.

Major dust storms and westward traveling waves on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqun

2017-04-01

Westward traveling waves are observed during major dust storm periods in northern fall and winter. The close correlation in timing makes westward traveling wave one of the signature responses of the Martian atmosphere to major dust storms. Westward traveling waves are dominated by zonal wave number m = 1 in the middle atmosphere and are typically characterized by long wave period. They are associated with significant temperature perturbations near the edge of the north polar vortex. Their wind signals extend to the low latitudes and the southern hemisphere. Their eddy momentum and heat fluxes exhibit complex patterns on a global scale in the middle atmosphere.

Developing Subdomain Allocation Algorithms Based on Spatial and Communicational Constraints to Accelerate Dust Storm Simulation

PubMed Central

Gui, Zhipeng; Yu, Manzhu; Yang, Chaowei; Jiang, Yunfeng; Chen, Songqing; Xia, Jizhe; Huang, Qunying; Liu, Kai; Li, Zhenlong; Hassan, Mohammed Anowarul; Jin, Baoxuan

2016-01-01

Dust storm has serious disastrous impacts on environment, human health, and assets. The developments and applications of dust storm models have contributed significantly to better understand and predict the distribution, intensity and structure of dust storms. However, dust storm simulation is a data and computing intensive process. To improve the computing performance, high performance computing has been widely adopted by dividing the entire study area into multiple subdomains and allocating each subdomain on different computing nodes in a parallel fashion. Inappropriate allocation may introduce imbalanced task loads and unnecessary communications among computing nodes. Therefore, allocation is a key factor that may impact the efficiency of parallel process. An allocation algorithm is expected to consider the computing cost and communication cost for each computing node to minimize total execution time and reduce overall communication cost for the entire simulation. This research introduces three algorithms to optimize the allocation by considering the spatial and communicational constraints: 1) an Integer Linear Programming (ILP) based algorithm from combinational optimization perspective; 2) a K-Means and Kernighan-Lin combined heuristic algorithm (K&K) integrating geometric and coordinate-free methods by merging local and global partitioning; 3) an automatic seeded region growing based geometric and local partitioning algorithm (ASRG). The performance and effectiveness of the three algorithms are compared based on different factors. Further, we adopt the K&K algorithm as the demonstrated algorithm for the experiment of dust model simulation with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM-dust) and compared the performance with the MPI default sequential allocation. The results demonstrate that K&K method significantly improves the simulation performance with better subdomain allocation. This method can also be adopted for other relevant atmospheric and numerical modeling. PMID:27044039

Hurricane feedback research may improve intensity forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2012-06-01

Forecasts of a hurricane's intensity are generally much less accurate than forecasts of its most likely path. Large-scale atmospheric patterns dictate where a hurricane will go and how quickly it will get there. The storm's intensity, however, depends on small-scale shifts in atmospheric stratification, upwelling rates, and other transient dynamics that are difficult to predict. Properly understanding the risk posed by an impending storm depends on having a firm grasp of all three properties: translational speed, intensity, and path. Drawing on 40 years of hurricane records representing 3090 different storms, Mei et al. propose that a hurricane's translational speed and intensity may be closely linked.

Monitoring An Intensive Dust Event over Northern China Using Multi-satellite Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

She, L.; Xue, Y.; Guang, J.; Mei, L.; Che, Y.; Fan, C.; Xie, Y.

2017-12-01

The deserts in western/northern China are one of the major mineral dust source regions of the world. Large amount of dust are emitted and blown east and southeast, especially in spring. An intensive dust event occurred over Northern China during May 3 - 8, 2017. The dust storms came from deserts in China and Mongolia. Due to the long-distance transport, more than ten provinces were affected by this dust event, several provinces occurred strong dust storm. In this study, multi-satellite data were employed to analyse the spatial-temporal evolution and dynamic transport behaviour of the dust plume, especially the geostationary satellite data - Himawari8 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) data. AHI data was used to estimate hourly Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) to monitoring the aerosol distribution as well as the dust plume movements, as the dust storms often characterized by high AOD. A simple dust index was also calculated based on AHI VIS and TIR data to estimate the dust intensity. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) data and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Aerosol Index were used as additional data sources to monitor the dust vertical distribution and provide independent information of dust presence. MODIS aerosol product and AERONET aerosol measurements were compared with the AHI retrieved AODs, the comparisons show a good agreement. The dust index was compared with the ground measurements as well as the corresponding RGB image. Simulations from HYSPLIT back-trajectory analysis shows similar temporal variation with the calculated AOD and dust index of the dust plume. Those comparisons with other satellite products and ground measurements suggested both the calculated AOD and dust index well depicted the dust events compared.

THEMIS Observations of Mars Aerosol Optical Depth from 2002-2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Michael D.

2009-01-01

We use infrared images obtained by the Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) instrument on-board Mars Odyssey to retrieve the optical depth of dust and water ice aerosols over more than 3.5 martian years between February 2002 (MY 25, Ls=330 ) and December 2008 (MY 29, Ls=183). These data provide an important bridge between earlier TES observations and recent observations from Mars Express and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. An improvement to our earlier retrieval to include atmospheric temperature information from THEMIS Band 10 observations leads to much improved retrievals during the largest dust storms. The new retrievals show moderate dust storm activity during Mars Years 26 and 27, although details of the strength and timing of dust storms is different from year to year. A planet-encircling dust storm event was observed during Mars Year 28 near Southern Hemisphere Summer solstice. A belt of low-latitude water ice clouds was observed during the aphelion season during each year, Mars Years 26 through 29. The optical depth of water ice clouds is somewhat higher in the THEMIS retrievals at approximately 5:00 PM local time than in the TES retrievals at approximately 2:00 PM, suggestive of possible local time variation of clouds.

Electrified atmospheric dust during disturbed weather conditions in the Negev desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Shai; Yair, Yoav; Price, Colin; Yaniv, Roy

2017-04-01

Dust storms over the Negev Desert in southern Israel are common and become frequent during the spring and autumn, depending on synoptic conditions and local effects. These storms are often accompanied by significant dust electrification, most likely due to saltation and triboelectric processes. We present new atmospheric electrical measurements conducted at the Wise Observatory (WO) in Mizpe-Ramon (30035'N, 34045'E) Israel, during two strong dust storms that occurred over the Negev desert on October 27-28th and December 1st, 2016. The first event generated a local gust front due to strong downdrafts from an active Cumulonimbus cloud (known as Haboob). In the second event, a Cyprus Low with strong synoptic-scale winds lifted the local sand particles at the Negev and lowered the visibility. During the passage of the dust storms above our instruments, very large fluctuations in the electric field (Ez) and current density (Jz) were measured. In the October Haboob event, the Ez data showed a superposition of signatures generated by lightning and by the dust aloft. The Ez values fluctuated between +123 to +2144 and -15336 to +19788 V m-1 for several hour-long episodes. The respective values of the vertical current density [Jz] were between -18 and +18 pA m-2. During the December dust storm we measured Ez values up to +4000 V m-1 lasting for 3.5 hours and another episode with values up to +668 V m-1 lasting for approximately 1.5 hours. These values were accompanied by changes in the Jz values between -16.5 and +17 pA m-2. The electric field and current density variability and amplitude are significantly different from the average fair-weather values measured at the Wise Observatory (Yaniv et al., 2016), which are 180 V m-1 and 2 pA m-1. We will show that these differences in the electrical behavior between these two dust storms may be related to the speed and direction of the wind near the surface.

Investigating NWP initialization sensitivities in heavy precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frediani, M. E. B.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Papadopoulos, A.

2010-09-01

This study aims to investigate the effect of different types of model initialization applied to extreme storms simulations. Storms with extreme precipitation can usually produce flash floods that cause several damages to the society. Lives and property are destroyed from the landslides when they could be speared if forecasted a few hours in advance. The forecasts depend on several factors; among them the initialization fields play an important role. These fields are the starting point for the simulation and therefore it controls the quality of the forecast. This study evaluates the sensitivities of WRF to the initialization from two perspectives, (1) resolution and (2) initial atmospheric fields. Two storms that lead to flash flood are simulated. The first one happened in Northeast Italy in 04/09/2009 (NI), and the second in Germany, in 02/06/2008 (GE). These storms present contrasting characteristics, NI was a maritime originated storm enhanced by local orography while GE was a typical summer convection. Three different sources of atmospheric fields defining the initial conditions are applied: (a) ECMWF operational analysis at resolution of 0.25 deg, (b) GFS operational analysis at 0.5deg and (c) LAPS analysis at ~15km, produced operationally at HCMR. The rainfall forecasted is compared against in situ ground radar and surface rain gauges observations through a set of quantitative precipitation forecast scores.

Scientists Track 'Perfect Storm' on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

Two dramatically different faces of our Red Planet neighbor appear in these comparison images showing how a global dust storm engulfed Mars with the onset of Martian spring in the Southern Hemisphere. When NASA's Hubble Space Telescope imaged Mars in June, the seeds of the storm were caught brewing in the giant Hellas Basin (oval at 4 o'clock position on disk) and in another storm at the northern polar cap.

When Hubble photographed Mars in early September, the storm had already been raging across the planet for nearly two months obscuring all surface features. The fine airborne dust blocks a significant amount of sunlight from reaching the Martian surface. Because the airborne dust is absorbing this sunlight, it heats the upper atmosphere. Seasonal global Mars dust storms have been observed from telescopes for over a century, but this is the biggest storm ever seen in the past several decades.

Mars looks gibbous in the right photograph because it is 26 million miles farther from Earth than in the left photo (though the pictures have been scaled to the same angular size), and our viewing angle has changed. The left picture was taken when Mars was near its closest approach to Earth for 2001 (an event called opposition); at that point the disk of Mars was fully illuminated as seen from Earth because Mars was exactly opposite the Sun.

Both images are in natural color, taken with Hubble's Wide Field Planetary Camera 2.

Numerical simulation of "An American Haboob"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vukovic, A.; Vujadinovic, M.; Pejanovic, G.; Andric, J.; Kumjian, M. R.; Djurdjevic, V.; Dacic, M.; Prasad, A. K.; El-Askary, H. M.; Paris, B. C.; Petkovic, S.; Nickovic, S.; Sprigg, W. A.

2013-10-01

A dust storm of fearful proportions hit Phoenix in the early evening hours of 5 July 2011. This storm, an American haboob, was predicted hours in advance because numerical, land-atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events have improved greatly over the past decade. High resolution numerical models are required for accurate simulation of the small-scales of the haboob process, with high velocity surface winds produced by strong convection and severe downbursts. Dust productive areas in this region consist mainly of agricultural fields, with soil surfaces disturbed by plowing and tracks of land in the high Sonoran desert laid barren by ongoing draught. Model simulation of the 5 July 2011 dust storm uses the coupled atmospheric-dust model NMME-DREAM with 3.5 km horizontal resolution. A mask of the potentially dust productive regions is obtained from the land cover and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Model results are compared with radar and other satellite-based images and surface meteorological and PM10 observations. The atmospheric model successfully hindcasted the position of the front in space and time, with about 1 h late arrival in Phoenix. The dust model predicted the rapid uptake of dust and high values of dust concentration in the ensuing storm. South of Phoenix, over the closest source regions (~ 25 km), the model PM10 surface dust concentration reached ~ 2500 μg m-3, but underestimated the values measured by the PM10stations within the city. Model results are also validated by the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), employing deep blue (DB) algorithms for aerosol loadings. Model validation included Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), equipped with the lidar instrument, to disclose the vertical structure of dust aerosols as well as aerosol subtypes. Promising results encourage further research and application of high-resolution modeling and satellite-based remote sensing to warn of approaching severe dust events and reduce risks for safety and health.

Dust Storm over the Red Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

In the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, dust storms originating in the deserts around the Arabian Peninsula have a significant impact on the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface. Winds sweep desert sands into the air and transport them eastward toward India and Asia with the seasonal monsoon. These airborne particles absorb and deflect incoming radiation and can produce a cooling effect as far away as North America. According to calculations performed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the terrain surrounding the southern portions of the Red Sea is one of the areas most dramatically cooled by the presence of summertime dust storms. That region is shown experiencing a dust storm in this true-color image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) acquired on July 11, 2002. The GISS model simulations indicate that between June and August, the temperatures would be as much as 2 degrees Celsius warmer than they are if it weren't for the dust in the air-a cooling equivalent to the passage of a rain cloud overhead. The image shows the African countries of Sudan (top left), Ethiopia (bottom left), with Eritrea nestled between them along the western coast of the Red Sea. Toward the right side of the image are Saudi Arabia (top) and Yemen (bottom) on the Arabian Peninsula. Overlooking the Red Sea, a long escarpment runs along the western edge of the Arabian Peninsula, and in this image appears to be blocking the full eastward expansion of the dust storm. Image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC

Impacts of crystal metal on secondary aliphatic amine aerosol formation during dust storm episodes in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qingyang; Bei, Yiling

2016-03-01

Trimethylamine (TMA) enters the atmosphere from a variety of sources and is a ubiquitous atmospheric organic base. The atmospheric reaction mechanism of TMA with key atmospheric oxidants is important to predict its distribution and environmental behavior in the particle phase. While previous studies have extensively focused on the production of particle amine salts (i.e. trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO)) using chamber experiments, the atmospheric behavior of TMAO in the environment is still poorly understood. Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was collected at two sampling sites in Beijing from March 10 to May 10, 2012. We analyzed the samples for water-soluble ions, crystal metals, TMA, and TMAO. Water-soluble ions (e.g. SO42-, NO3- , NH4+), TMA, and TMAO were measured using ion chromatography, while crystal metal (e.g. Al, Fe, Mn) in PM2.5 was quantified by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Two dust storms (DS) occurred during the sampling period on March 28 and April 28. Mineral dust impacted PM2.5 mass and composition greatly during dust storm days, as it contributed approximately 1.2-4.0 times greater on dust storm days versus non-dust storm days. We found TMAO concentrations were highly associated with aluminum in PM2.5. Further, we applied the density functional theory (DFT) method to confirm that aluminum plays a catalytic effect in the reaction of TMA with ozone (O3). Our work improves understanding of the effect of crystal metals on secondary aliphatic amine aerosol formation in the atmosphere.

Wind-Stress Dust Lifting in a Mars Global Circulation Model: Representation across Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, R.; Lewis, S.; Balme, M. R.; Steele, L.

2017-12-01

The formation of Martian dust storms is believed to be driven by dust lifting by near-surface wind stress (NSWS). Accurately representing this dust lifting within Mars Global Circulation Models (MGCMs) is important in order to gain a full understanding of the Martian dust storm cycle. Parameterisations of dust lifting by NSWS exist within several MGCMs; implementations differ but they all follow a similar design, so progress within one model is relevant to the entire field. Few studies have explored in detail how the results of these parameterisations can be affected by changing the horizontal resolution of the model. An accurate parameterisation of dust lifting by NSWS will lift a representative dust mass, reproducing characteristic dust optical depths in the atmosphere. The geographical distribution of the dust lifting by NSWS will also change throughout the year, affecting patterns of dust storm formation and development. Currently, suitable values for dust lifting parameters must be identified at every new model resolution. Resolutions of 5° latitude x 5° longitude are often used to model the Martian climate, as thermal tides and long-term weather patterns can be well represented at this resolution. However, smaller scale phenomena (such as near-surface winds driven by local topography) cannot be accurately depicted at this resolution. We use the LMD-UK MGCM to complete multi-year simulations across multiple model resolutions. Our experiments range from `low' resolution 5° lat x 5° lon to `high' resolution 1° lat x 1° lon. In experiments with fixed, constant lifting parameters, we find that higher resolution simulations lift more dust, but that this trend is asymptotic. At low resolutions, dust lifting increases proportionately with the increase in number of horizontal gridboxes. However, at high resolutions, doubling the number of gridboxes results only in a 30% increase in the total dust mass lifted. Geographical and temporal distributions of dust lifting are investigated, as well as the total dust lifted, in order to assess the optimum parameters for each resolution, and to develop a calibration scheme for this dust lifting across model resolutions. The scheme is verified through comparison with spacecraft observations of dust optical depths and dust storm locations.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center - Honolulu, Hawai`i

Science.gov Websites

distance between lat/lon points Saffir-Simpson Scale Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt) Category 1 Research and Development NOAA Hurricane Research Division Joint Hurricane Testbed Hurricane Forecast WFO Honolulu Weather Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Local Forecast

Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) Observations of Dust Opacity During Aerobraking and Science Phasing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Michael D.; Pearl, John C.; Conrath, Barney J.; Christensen, Philip R.

1999-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) arrived at Mars in September 1997 near Mars southern spring equinox and has now provided monitoring of conditions in the Mars atmosphere for more than half a Mars year. The large majority of the spectra taken by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) are in a nadir geometry (downward looking mode) where Mars is observed through the atmosphere. Most of these contain the distinct spectral signature of atmospheric dust. For these nadir-geometry spectra we retrieve column-integrated infrared aerosol (dust) opacities. TES observations during the aerobraking and science-phasing portions of the MGS mission cover the seasonal range L(sub s)=184 deg - 28 deg. Excellent spatial coverage was obtained in the southern hemisphere. Northern hemisphere coverage is generally limited to narrow strips taken during the periapsis pass but is still very valuable. At the beginning of the mission the 9-(micron)meter dust opacity at midsouthern latitudes was low (0.15-0.25). As the season advanced through southern spring and into summer, TES observed several regional dust storms (including the Noachis dust storm of November 1997) where peak 9-(micron)meter dust opacities approached or exceeded unity, as well as numerous smaller local storms. Both large and small dust storms exhibited significant changes in both spatial coverage and intensity over a timescale of a day. Throughout southern spring and summer the region at the edge of the retreating southern seasonal polar ice cap was observed to be consistently more dusty than other latitudes.

Calibration of GOES-VISSR, visible-band satellite data and its application to the analysis of a dust storm at Owens Lake, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKinnon, D.J.; Chavez, P.S.; Fraser, R. S.; Niemeyer, T.C.; Gillette, Dale A.

1996-01-01

As part of a joint Russian/American dust-storm experiment, GOES-VISSR (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, Visible-Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer), data from a visible-band satellite image of a large dust storm emanating from Owens Lake, California were acquired on March 10 and 11, 1993. The satellite data were calibrated to targets of known ground reflectance factors and processed with radiative transfer techniques to yield aerosol (dust) optical depth at those stages of the dust storm when concurrent ground-based measurements of optical depth were made. Calibration of the satellite data is crucial for comparing surficial changes in remotely sensed data acquired over a period of time from the same area and for determining accurate concentrations of atmospheric aerosols using radiative transfer techniques. The calibration procedure forces the distribution of visible-band, DN (digital number) values, acquired on July 1, 1992, at 1731 GMT from the GOES-VISSR sensor over a large test area, to match the distribution of visible-band, DN values concurrently acquired from a Landsat MSS (Multispectral Scanner) sensor over the same test area; the Landsat MSS DN values were directly associated with reflectance factors measured from ground targets. The calibrated GOES-VISSR data for July 1, 1992, were then used to calibrate other GOES-VISSR data acquired on March 10 and 11, 1993, during the dust storm. Uncertainties in location of ground targets, bi-directional reflectance and atmospheric attenuation contribute an error of approximately ??0.02 in the satellite-inferred ground reflectance factors. On March 11 at 1031 PST the satellite-received radiances during the peak of the storm were 3 times larger than predicted by our radiative transfer model for a pure clay dust plume of infinite optical depth. This result supported ground-based measurements that the plume at that time was composed primarily of large salt grains, probably sodium sulfate, which could not be properly characterized in our radiative transfer model. Further, the satellite data showed that the salt fell out of the plume within 35 km from the source. Finer-grained, clay dust was observed to extend beyond the salt-laden plume and was the major component of the dust plume after 1131 PST, when erosion of the salt crust on Owens Lake ceased. By 1331 and 1401 PST satellite-inferred, optical depths compared favorably with measurements concurrently acquired at the ground. Uncertainties in bi-directional reflectance, atmospheric attenuation, and locating ground points in the satellite data manifest errors between the inferred and measured optical depths in the range of 20 to 50%; these errors would be much greater without the calibration of the GOES-VISSR data. Changes in satellite-inferred reflectance factors over the lake bed during the course of the storm showed that 76 km2 of the surface was disrupted during the March 11 storm, suggesting as much as 76 ?? 103 m3 of crustal material were displaced for each millimeter of several estimated to have been moved during the storm; an unknown fraction of the displaced material was suspended. The satellite data also showed dust fallout on mountain snowfields. Whereas fallout may have removed most of the salt, satellite data acquired at 1631 PST, when the plume had a large brightness contrast with the ground, showed that it covered over 2500 km2 and contained at least 1.6 ?? 109 g of sediment. For such a small source area, the dust represents a substantial contribution to the regional and global load of aerosols.

Dust devils on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, P. G.; Gierasch, P.

1985-01-01

Large columns of dust have been discovered rising above plains on Mars. The storms are probably analogous to terrestrial dust devils, but their size indicates that they are more similar to tornadoes in intensity. They occur at locations where the soil has been strongly warmed by the Sun, and there the surface is smooth and fine grained. These are the same conditions that favor dust devils on Earth. Warm gas from the lowest atmospheric layer converges and rises in a thin column, with intense swirl developing at the edge of the column. In one area a mosaic of Viking images shows 97 vortices in a three day period. This represents a density of vortices of about one in each 900 square kilometers. Thus, these dust devils may be important in moving dust or starting over dust storms.

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter; Corsmeier, Ulrich

2017-10-01

New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995-2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a) the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2-4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

Impact-Mobilized Dust in the Martian Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemtchinov, I. V.; Shuvalov, V. V.; Greeley, R.

2002-01-01

We consider dust production and entrainment into the atmosphere of Mars by impacts. Numerical simulations based on the multidimensional multimaterial hydrocode were conducted for impactors 1 to 100 m in size and velocities 11 and 20 kilometers per second. The size distribution of particles was based on experimentrr wing TNT explosions. Dust can be mobilized even when the impactor does not reach the ground through the release of energy in the atmosphere, We found that the blast produced winds entrained dust by a mechanism similar to boundary layer winds as determined from the wind-tunnel tests. For a l-m radius stony asteroid releasing its energy in the atmosphere the lifted mass of dust is larger than that in a typical dust devil and could trigger local dust storms, For a 100-m-radius meteoroid the amount of injected dust is comparable with the tota! mass of a global dust storm.

Ionospheric storms—A challenge for empirical forecast of the total electron content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borries, C.; Berdermann, J.; Jakowski, N.; Wilken, V.

2015-04-01

Since the last decades, the functioning of society depends more and more on well-functioning communication and navigation systems. As the availability and reliability of most of these satellite-based systems can be severely impacted by ionospheric storms, the accurate forecast of these events becomes a required task for mitigating social and economic risks. Here we aim to make initial steps toward an empirical model for ionospheric perturbations related to space weather events that are observable in the total electron content (TEC). The perturbation TEC forecast model will be a fast and robust approach, improving TEC forecasts based on climatological models during storm conditions. The derivation of such a model is a challenging task, because although a general dependence of the storm features (enhancement or depletion of electron density) on the storm onset time, local time, season and geomagnetic latitude is well known, there is a large deviation from the mean behavior. For a better understanding of storm conditions, this paper presents analyses of ionospheric storms observed in the TEC, broken down into diverse classes of storms. It provides a detailed characterization of the typical ionospheric storm behavior over Europe from high to midlatitudes, beyond case studies. Generally, the typical clear strong TEC enhancement starting in high latitudes and propagating equatorward is found to be strongest for storms starting in the morning hours independent of the season. In midlatitudes, it is strongest during noon. In addition, a clear difference between summer and winter storms is reported. While only winter storms develop high-latitude TEC enhancements, only summer storms typically exhibit TEC depletions during the storm recovery phase. During winter storms TEC enhancements can also occur the day following the storm onset, in contrast to summer storms. Strong correlation of TEC perturbation amplitudes to the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field and to a proxy of the polar cap potential are shown especially for summer midlatitude TEC enhancements during storms with and onset in the morning hours (6 to 12 UT over Europe) and for winter high-latitude TEC enhancements (around 60∘N). The results indicate the potential to derive improved predictions of maximum TEC deviations during space weather events, based on solar wind measurements.

The Implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for Global Dust Forecasting at NOAA NCEP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya;

Evaluation of weather forecast systems for storm surge modeling in the Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Celso M.; Padilla-Hernandez, Roberto

2018-01-01

Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

Mars Dust: Characterization of Particle Size and Electrostatic Charge Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazumder, M. K.; Saini, D.; Biris, A. S.; Sriama, P. K.; Calle, C.; Buhler, C.

2004-01-01

Some of the latest pictures of Mars surface sent by NASA's Spirit rover in early January, 2004, show very cohesive, "mud-like" dust layers. Significant amounts of dust clouds are present in the atmosphere of Mars [1-4]. NASA spacecraft missions to Mars confirmed hypotheses from telescopic work that changes observed in the planet's surface markings are caused by wind-driven redistribution of dust. In these dust storms, particles with a wide range of diameters (less than 1 micrometer to 50 micrometers) are a serious problem to solar cells, spacecraft, and spacesuits. Dust storms may cover the entire planet for an extended period of time [5]. It is highly probable that the particles are charged electrostatically by triboelectrification and by UV irradiation.

Quantitative impact of aerosols on numerical weather prediction. Part II: Impacts to IR radiance assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquis, J. W.; Campbell, J. R.; Oyola, M. I.; Ruston, B. C.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

This is part II of a two-part series examining the impacts of aerosol particles on weather forecasts. In this study, the aerosol indirect effects on weather forecasts are explored by examining the temperature and moisture analysis associated with assimilating dust contaminated hyperspectral infrared radiances. The dust induced temperature and moisture biases are quantified for different aerosol vertical distribution and loading scenarios. The overall impacts of dust contamination on temperature and moisture forecasts are quantified over the west coast of Africa, with the assistance of aerosol retrievals from AERONET, MPL, and CALIOP. At last, methods for improving hyperspectral infrared data assimilation in dust contaminated regions are proposed.

a Comparison of Empirical and Inteligent Methods for Dust Detection Using Modis Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahrisvand, M.; Akhoondzadeh, M.

2013-09-01

Nowadays, dust storm in one of the most important natural hazards which is considered as a national concern in scientific communities. This paper considers the capabilities of some classical and intelligent methods for dust detection from satellite imagery around the Middle East region. In the study of dust detection, MODIS images have been a good candidate due to their suitable spectral and temporal resolution. In this study, physical-based and intelligent methods including decision tree, ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and SVM (Support Vector Machine) have been applied to detect dust storms. Among the mentioned approaches, in this paper, SVM method has been implemented for the first time in domain of dust detection studies. Finally, AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) images, which are one the referenced standard products of OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) sensor, have been used to assess the accuracy of all the implemented methods. Since the SVM method can distinguish dust storm over lands and oceans simultaneously, therefore the accuracy of SVM method is achieved better than the other applied approaches. As a conclusion, this paper shows that SVM can be a powerful tool for production of dust images with remarkable accuracy in comparison with AOT (Aerosol Optical Thickness) product of NASA.

East Asian dust storm in May 2017: observations, modelling and its influence on Asia-Pacific region

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A severe dust storm event originated from the Gobi Desert in Central and East Asia during 2-7 May, 2017. Based on moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products, hourly environmental monitoring measurements from 367 Chinese cities and more than 2000 East Asian meteorologica...

Sources of Wind Variability at a Single Station in Complex Terrain During Tropical Cyclone Passage

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Mesoscale Prediction System CPA Closest point of approach ET Extratropical transition FNMOC Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center...forecasts. However, 2 the TC forecast tracks and warnings they issue necessarily focus on the large-scale structure of the storm , and are not...winds at one station. Also, this technique is a storm - centered forecast and even if the grid spacing is on order of one kilometer, it is unlikely

Radio Emissions from Electrical Activity in Martian Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majid, W.; Arabshahi, S.; Kocz, J.; Schulter, T.; White, L.

2017-12-01

Dust storms on Mars are predicted to be capable of producing electrostatic fields and discharges, even larger than those in dust storms on Earth. There are three key elements in the characterization of Martian electrostatic discharges: dependence on Martian environmental conditions, event rate, and the strength of the generated electric fields. The detection and characterization of electric activity in Martian dust storms has important implications for habitability, and preparations for human exploration of the red planet. Furthermore, electrostatic discharges may be linked to local chemistry and plays an important role in the predicted global electrical circuit. Because of the continuous Mars telecommunication needs of NASA's Mars-based assets, the Deep Space Network (DSN) is the only facility in the world that combines long term, high cadence, observing opportunities with large sensitive telescopes, making it a unique asset worldwide in searching for and characterizing electrostatic activity from large scale convective dust storms at Mars. We will describe a newly inaugurated program at NASA's Madrid Deep Space Communication Complex to carry out a long-term monitoring campaign to search for and characterize the entire Mars hemisphere for powerful discharges during routine tracking of spacecraft at Mars on an entirely non-interfering basis. The ground-based detections will also have important implications for the design of a future instrument that could make similar in-situ measurements from orbit or from the surface of Mars, with far greater sensitivity and duty cycle, opening up a new window in our understanding of the Martian environment.

L-band microwave remote sensing and land data assimilation improve the representation of pre-storm soil moisture conditions for hydrologic forecasting

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent advances in remote sensing and land data assimilation purport to improve the quality of antecedent soil moisture information available for operational hydrologic forecasting. We objectively validate this claim by calculating the strength of the relationship between storm-scale runoff ratio (i...

Windblown Dust Deposition Forecasting and Spread of Contamination around Mine Tailings.

PubMed

Stovern, Michael; Guzmán, Héctor; Rine, Kyle P; Felix, Omar; King, Matthew; Ela, Wendell P; Betterton, Eric A; Sáez, Avelino Eduardo

2016-02-01

Wind erosion, transport and deposition of windblown dust from anthropogenic sources, such as mine tailings impoundments, can have significant effects on the surrounding environment. The lack of vegetation and the vertical protrusion of the mine tailings above the neighboring terrain make the tailings susceptible to wind erosion. Modeling the erosion, transport and deposition of particulate matter from mine tailings is a challenge for many reasons, including heterogeneity of the soil surface, vegetative canopy coverage, dynamic meteorological conditions and topographic influences. In this work, a previously developed Deposition Forecasting Model (DFM) that is specifically designed to model the transport of particulate matter from mine tailings impoundments is verified using dust collection and topsoil measurements. The DFM is initialized using data from an operational Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The forecast deposition patterns are compared to dust collected by inverted-disc samplers and determined through gravimetric, chemical composition and lead isotopic analysis. The DFM is capable of predicting dust deposition patterns from the tailings impoundment to the surrounding area. The methodology and approach employed in this work can be generalized to other contaminated sites from which dust transport to the local environment can be assessed as a potential route for human exposure.

Windblown Dust Deposition Forecasting and Spread of Contamination around Mine Tailings

PubMed Central

Stovern, Michael; Guzmán, Héctor; Rine, Kyle P.; Felix, Omar; King, Matthew; Ela, Wendell P.; Betterton, Eric A.; Sáez, Avelino Eduardo

2017-01-01

Wind erosion, transport and deposition of windblown dust from anthropogenic sources, such as mine tailings impoundments, can have significant effects on the surrounding environment. The lack of vegetation and the vertical protrusion of the mine tailings above the neighboring terrain make the tailings susceptible to wind erosion. Modeling the erosion, transport and deposition of particulate matter from mine tailings is a challenge for many reasons, including heterogeneity of the soil surface, vegetative canopy coverage, dynamic meteorological conditions and topographic influences. In this work, a previously developed Deposition Forecasting Model (DFM) that is specifically designed to model the transport of particulate matter from mine tailings impoundments is verified using dust collection and topsoil measurements. The DFM is initialized using data from an operational Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The forecast deposition patterns are compared to dust collected by inverted-disc samplers and determined through gravimetric, chemical composition and lead isotopic analysis. The DFM is capable of predicting dust deposition patterns from the tailings impoundment to the surrounding area. The methodology and approach employed in this work can be generalized to other contaminated sites from which dust transport to the local environment can be assessed as a potential route for human exposure. PMID:29082035

Size-segregated sugar composition of transported dust aerosols from Middle-East over Delhi during March 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Aggarwal, S. G.; Fu, P. Q.; Kang, M.; Sarangi, B.; Sinha, D.; Kotnala, R. K.

2017-06-01

During March 20-22, 2012 Delhi experienced a massive dust-storm which originated in Middle-East. Size segregated sampling of these dust aerosols was performed using a nine staged Andersen sampler (5 sets of samples were collected including before dust-storm (BDS)), dust-storm day 1 to 3 (DS1 to DS3) and after dust storm (ADS). Sugars (mono and disaccharides, sugar-alcohols and anhydro-sugars) were determined using GC-MS technique. It was observed that on the onset of dust-storm, total suspended particulate matter (TSPM, sum of all stages) concentration in DS1 sample increased by > 2.5 folds compared to that of BDS samples. Interestingly, fine particulate matter (sum of stages with cutoff size < 2.1 μm) loading in DS1 also increased by > 2.5 folds as compared to that of BDS samples. Sugars analyzed in DS1 coarse mode (sum of stages with cutoff size > 2.1 μm) samples showed a considerable increase ( 1.7-2.8 folds) compared to that of other samples. It was further observed that mono-saccharides, disaccharides and sugar-alcohols concentrations were enhanced in giant (> 9.0 μm) particles in DS1 samples as compared to other samples. On the other hand, anhydro-sugars comprised 13-27% of sugars in coarse mode particles and were mostly found in fine mode constituting 66-85% of sugars in all the sample types. Trehalose showed an enhanced ( 2-4 folds) concentration in DS1 aerosol samples in both coarse (62.80 ng/m3) and fine (8.57 ng/m3) mode. This increase in Trehalose content in both coarse and fine mode suggests their origin to the transported desert dust and supports their candidature as an organic tracer for desert dust entrainments. Further, levoglucosan to mannosan (L/M) ratios which have been used to predict the type of biomass burning influences on aerosols are found to be size dependent in these samples. These ratios are higher for fine mode particles, hence should be used with caution while interpreting the sources using this tool.

Paracas dust storms: Sources, trajectories and associated meteorological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briceño-Zuluaga, F.; Castagna, A.; Rutllant, J. A.; Flores-Aqueveque, V.; Caquineau, S.; Sifeddine, A.; Velazco, F.; Gutierrez, D.; Cardich, J.

2017-09-01

Dust storms that develop along the Pisco-Ica desert in Southern Peru, locally known as ;Paracas; winds have ecological, health and economic repercussions. Here we identify dust sources through MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery and analyze HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particles Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model trajectories and dispersion patterns, along with concomitant synoptic-scale meteorological conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR). Additionally, surface pressure data from the hourly METeorological Aerodrome Report (METAR) at Arica (18.5°S, 70.3°W) and Pisco (13.7°S, 76.2°W) were used to calculate Alongshore (sea-level) Pressure Gradient (APG) anomalies during Paracas dust storms, their duration and associated wind-speeds and wind directions. This study provides a review on the occurrence and strength of the Paracas dust storms as reported in the Pisco airfield for five-year period and their correspondence with MODIS true-color imagery in terms of dust-emission source areas. Our results show that most of the particle fluxes moving into the Ica-Pisco desert area during Paracas wind events originate over the coastal zone, where strong winds forced by steep APGs develop as the axis of a deep mid-troposphere trough sets in along north-central Chile. Direct relationships between Paracas wind intensity, number of active dust-emission sources and APGs are also documented, although the scarcity of simultaneous METAR/MODIS data for clearly observed MODIS dust plumes prevents any significant statistical inference. Synoptic-scale meteorological composites from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data show that Paracas wind events (steep APGs) are mostly associated with the strengthening of anticyclonic conditions in northern Chile, that can be attributed to cold air advection associated with the incoming trough. Compared to the MODIS images, HYSPLIT outputs were able to spatially reproduce trajectories and dust dispersion plumes during the Paracas wind storms. HYSPLIT trajectories revealed that part of the wind-eroded lithological material can be transported downwind several kilometers along the Peruvian coast and also deposited over the nearby coastal ocean, giving support to the presence of an aeolian signal in continental shelf sediments, of great importance for paleoenvironmental studies.

HUBBLE TRACKS 'PERFECT STORM' ON MARS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Two dramatically different faces of our Red Planet neighbor appear in these comparison images showing how a global dust storm engulfed Mars with the onset of Martian spring in the Southern Hemisphere. When NASA's Hubble Space Telescope imaged Mars in June, the seeds of the storm were caught brewing in the giant Hellas Basin (oval at 4 o'clock position on disk) and in another storm at the northern polar cap. When Hubble photographed Mars in early September, the storm had already been raging across the planet for nearly two months obscuring all surface features. The fine airborne dust blocks a significant amount of sunlight from reaching the Martian surface. Because the airborne dust is absorbing this sunlight, it heats the upper atmosphere. Seasonal global Mars dust storms have been observed from telescopes for over a century, but this is the biggest storm ever seen in the past several decades. Mars looks gibbous in the right photograph because it is 26 million miles farther from Earth than in the left photo (though the pictures have been scaled to the same angular size), and our viewing angle has changed. The left picture was taken when Mars was near its closest approach to Earth for 2001 (an event called opposition); at that point the disk of Mars was fully illuminated as seen from Earth because Mars was exactly opposite the Sun. Both images are in natural color, taken with Hubble's Wide Field Planetary Camera 2. Credit: NASA, James Bell (Cornell Univ.), Michael Wolff (Space Science Inst.), and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)

A rare case of haboob in Tehran: Observational and numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karami, S.; Ranjbar, A.; Mohebalhojeh, A. R.; Moradi, M.

2017-03-01

A great dust storm occurred in Tehran on 2 June 2014 and caused severe damage to properties and involved loss of human life. From the visual evidence available, it can be regarded as a case of haboob. As a lower latitude phenomenon, its occurrence in Tehran was unprecedented in the last 50 years. This paper aims to present a detailed analysis of the weather conditions, the pathways by which dust particles were ingested by the haboob, as well as the impact of the urban boundary layer on the intensity and propagation of the dust storm. Using numerical simulation carried out by the WRF-Chem model and various observational techniques, the coupling of a low-level small-scale deformation field with a lower-tropospheric cold pool produced by precipitating mid-tropospheric clouds is identified as the main process involved in shaping this rare dust storm.

The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP

PubMed Central

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; da Silva, Arlindo; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; McQueen, Jeffery; Iredell, Mark

2018-01-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5 day dust forecasts at 1°×1° resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered. PMID:29652411

The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP.

PubMed

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; da Silva, Arlindo; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; McQueen, Jeffery; Iredell, Mark

2016-01-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5 day dust forecasts at 1°×1° resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered.

Interannual Variability of Martian Global Dust Storms: Simulations with a Low-Order Model of the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pankine, A. A.; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

2002-01-01

We present simulations of the interannual variability of martian global dust storms (GDSs) with a simplified low-order model (LOM) of the general circulation. The simplified model allows one to conduct computationally fast long-term simulations of the martian climate system. The LOM is constructed by Galerkin projection of a 2D (zonally averaged) general circulation model (GCM) onto a truncated set of basis functions. The resulting LOM consists of 12 coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing atmospheric dynamics and dust transport within the Hadley cell. The forcing of the model is described by simplified physics based on Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction. The atmosphere and surface are coupled: atmospheric heating depends on the dustiness of the atmosphere, and the surface dust source depends on the strength of the atmospheric winds. Parameters of the model are tuned to fit the output of the NASA AMES GCM and the fit is generally very good. Interannual variability of GDSs is possible in the IBM, but only when stochastic forcing is added to the model. The stochastic forcing could be provided by transient weather systems or some surface process such as redistribution of the sand particles in storm generating zones on the surface. The results are sensitive to the value of the saltation threshold, which hints at a possible feedback between saltation threshold and dust storm activity. According to this hypothesis, erodable material builds up its a result of a local process, whose effect is to lower the saltation threshold until a GDS occurs. The saltation threshold adjusts its value so that dust storms are barely able to occur.

Understanding Variability in Beach Slope to Improve Forecasts of Storm-induced Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doran, K. S.; Stockdon, H. F.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

The National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards combines measurements of beach morphology with storm hydrodynamics to produce forecasts of coastal change during storms for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Wave-induced water levels are estimated using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon et al. (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. Seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of a meter in wave runup elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. Spatial variation in beach slope is accounted for through alongshore averaging, but temporal variability in beach slope is not included in the final computation of the likelihood of coastal change. Additionally, input morphology may be years old and potentially very different than the conditions present during forecast storm. In order to improve our forecasts of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards, the temporal variability of beach slope must be included in the final uncertainty of modeled wave-induced water levels. Frequently collected field measurements of lidar-based beach morphology are examined for study sites in Duck, North Carolina, Treasure Island, Florida, Assateague Island, Virginia, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, with some records extending over a period of 15 years. Understanding the variability of slopes at these sites will help provide estimates of associated water level uncertainty which can then be applied to other areas where lidar observations are infrequent, and improve the overall skill of future forecasts of storm-induced coastal change. Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger Jr, A. H. (2006). Empirical parameterization of setup,swash, and runup. Coastal engineering, 53(7), 573-588.

Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust in Tropical Cyclone Formation Using Nasa's Adjoint Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holdaway, Daniel

2015-01-01

As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming of the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the adjoint can provide insight into the sensitivity and reveals a relatively low sensitivity to dust compared to, for example, the thermodynamic variables. However a secondary sensitivity though moisture is seen. If dust dries the air it can significantly reduce the cyclone intensity through the moisture.

Investigating sensitivity to Saharan dust in tropical cyclone formation using NASA's adjoint model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holdaway, Daniel

2015-04-01

As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming off the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the adjoint can provide insight into the sensitivity and reveals a relatively low sensitivity to dust compared to, for example, the thermodynamic variables. However a secondary sensitivity though moisture is seen. If dust dries the air it can significantly reduce the cyclone intensity through the moisture.

A Global Aerosol Model Forecast for the ACE-Asia Field Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Ginoux, Paul; Lucchesi, Robert; Huebert, Barry; Weber, Rodney; Anderson, Tad; Masonis, Sarah; Blomquist, Byron; Bandy, Alan; Thornton, Donald

2003-01-01

We present the results of aerosol forecast during the Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) field experiment in spring 2001, using the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and the meteorological forecast fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The aerosol model forecast provides direct information on aerosol optical thickness and concentrations, enabling effective flight planning, while feedbacks from measurements constantly evaluate the model, making successful model improvements. We verify the model forecast skill by comparing model predicted total aerosol extinction, dust, sulfate, and SO2 concentrations with those quantities measured by the C-130 aircraft during the ACE-Asia intensive operation period. The GEOS DAS meteorological forecast system shows excellent skills in predicting winds, relative humidity, and temperature for the ACE-Asia experiment area as well as for each individual flight, with skill scores usually above 0.7. The model is also skillful in forecast of pollution aerosols, with most scores above 0.5. The model correctly predicted the dust outbreak events and their trans-Pacific transport, but it constantly missed the high dust concentrations observed in the boundary layer. We attribute this missing dust source to the desertification regions in the Inner Mongolia Province in China, which have developed in recent years but were not included in the model during forecasting. After incorporating the desertification sources, the model is able to reproduce the observed high dust concentrations at low altitudes over the Yellow Sea. Two key elements for a successful aerosol model forecast are correct source locations that determine where the emissions take place, and realistic forecast winds and convection that determine where the aerosols are transported. We demonstrate that our global model can not only account for the large-scale intercontinental transport, but also produce the small-scale spatial and temporal variations that are adequate for aircraft measurements planning.

General Circulation Model Simulations of the Annual Cycle of Martian Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R.; Richardson, M.; Rodin, A.

Observations of the martian atmosphere have revealed a strong annual modulation of global mean atmospheric temperature that has been attributed to the pronounced seasonal asymmetry in solar radiation and the highly variable distribution of aerosol. These observations indicate little interannual variability during the relatively cool aphelion season and considerable variability in the perihelion season that is associated with the episodic occurrence of regional and major dust storms. The atmospheric circulation responds to the evolving spatial distribution of aerosol-induced heating and, in turn, plays a major role in determining the sources, sinks, and transport of radiatively active aerosol. We will present simulations employing the GFDL Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) that show that aspects of the seasonally evolving climate may be simulated in a self-consistent manner using simple dust source parameterizations that represent the effects of lifting associated with local dust storms, dust devil activity, and other processes. Aerosol transport is accomplished, in large part, by elements of the large-scale circulation such as the Hadley circulation, baroclinic storms, tides, etc. A seasonal cycle of atmospheric opacity and temperature results from the variation in the strength and distribution of dust sources as well as from seasonal variations in the efficiency of atmospheric transport associated with changes in the circulation between solstice and equinox, and between perihelion and aphelion. We examine the efficiency of atmospheric transport of dust lifted along the perimeter of the polar caps to gauge the influence of these storms on the global circulation. We also consider the influence of water, as the formation of water ice clouds on dust nuclei may also affect the vertical distribution of dust and strongly influence the aerosol radiative properties.

Visualizing Coastal Erosion, Overwash and Coastal Flooding in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young Morse, R.; Shyka, T.

2017-12-01

Powerful East Coast storms and their associated storm tides and large, battering waves can lead to severe coastal change through erosion and re-deposition of beach sediment. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has modeled such potential for geological response using a storm-impact scale that compares predicted elevations of hurricane-induced water levels and associated wave action to known elevations of coastal topography. The resulting storm surge and wave run-up hindcasts calculate dynamic surf zone collisions with dune structures using discrete regime categories of; "collision" (dune erosion), "overwash" and "inundation". The National Weather Service (NWS) recently began prototyping this empirical technique under the auspices of the North Atlantic Regional Team (NART). Real-time erosion and inundation forecasts were expanded to include both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones along vulnerable beaches (hotspots) on the New England coast. Preliminary results showed successful predictions of impact during hurricane Sandy and several intense Nor'easters. The forecasts were verified using observational datasets, including "ground truth" reports from Emergency Managers and storm-based, dune profile measurements organized through a Maine Sea Grant partnership. In an effort to produce real-time visualizations of this forecast output, the Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems (NERACOOS) and the Gulf of Maine Research Institute (GMRI) partnered with NART to create graphical products of wave run-up levels for each New England "hotspot". The resulting prototype system updates the forecasts twice daily and allows users the ability to adjust atmospheric and sea state input into the calculations to account for model errors and forecast uncertainty. This talk will provide an overview of the empirical wave run-up calculations, the system used to produce forecast output and a demonstration of the new web based tool.

An electrified dust storm over the Negev desert, Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yair, Y.; Price, C. G.; Yaniv, R.; Katz, S.

2015-12-01

We report on atmospheric electrical measurements conducted at the Wise Observatory in Mitzpe-Ramon, Israel (30035'N, 34045'E) during a massive dust storm that occurred over the Eastern Mediterranean region on 10-11 February 2015. The event transported Saharan dust from Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula in advance of the warm front of a Cyprus low pressure system. Satellite images show the dust plume covering the Negev desert and Southern Israel and moving north. The concentrations of PM10 particles measured by the air-quality monitoring network of the Israeli Ministry of the Environment in Beer-Sheba reached values > 450 μg m-3 and AOT from the AERONET station in Sde-Boker was 1.5 on the 10th. The gradual intensification of the event reached peak values on February 11th of over 1200 μg m-3 and AOT of 1.8. This was the most severe dust event in a decade. Continuous measurements of the fair weather vertical electric field (Ez) and vertical current density (Jz) were conducted with 1 minute temporal resolution. Meteorological data was also recorded at the site. As the dust was advected over the observation site, we noted very large fluctuations in the electrical parameters. Since the onset of the dust storm, the Ez values changed between +1000 and +8000 V m-1 while the Jz fluctuated between -10 pA m2 and +20 pA m2, both on time-scales of a few minutes. These values are a significant departures from the mean fair-weather values measured at the site, which are -~200 V m-1 and ~2 pA m2. The disturbed episodes lasted for several hours on the 10th and 11th and coincided with local meteorological conditions related to the wind direction, which carried large amounts of dust particles. We interpret the rapid changes as caused by the transport of electrically charged dust. Calculation of the total electrical charge during the dust storm will be presented.

Numerical Study of the Port of Miami (Importance of Dodge Island) in Storm Surge and Flooding Forecasting in North Biscayne Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Zhang, K.; Li, Y.

2011-12-01

The importance of Port of Miami (Dodge Island) in storm surge and flooding forecasting in North Biscayne Bay was investigated by using the numerical model Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST). Firstly, CEST was applied to Hurricane Andrew of 1992 in the Biscayne Bay basin and validated by in situ measurements, which indicated the model results had good agreement with measured data. Secondly, two sets of experiments using Hurricane Miami of 1926 were conducted to study the role of Dodge Island in storm surge and flooding forecasting in North Biscayne Bay: one set of experiments were run in today's Biscayne Bay basin and another set of experiments were run in Biscayne Bay basin of 1926 in which Dodge Island was not created yet. Results indicated that storm surge and flooding areas were reduced a little bit in Miami River areas when Dodge Island was not there. Meanwhile, storm surge and flooding areas in North Miami and Miami Beach regions were largely increased. Results further indicated that as long as the hurricane made landfall in south of Dodge Island, it can provide a good protection for Miami Beach area to reduce storm surge and flooding impacts.

Thermal Tides During the 2001 Martian Global-Scale Dust Storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Wilson, R. John; McConnochie, Timothy H.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Bandfield, Donald J.; Smith, Michael D.

2014-01-01

The 2001 (Mars Year 25) global dust storm radically altered the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere. Using observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and Mars WRF general circulation model simulations, we examine the changes to thermal tides and planetary waves caused by the storm. We find that the extratropical diurnal migrating tide is dramatically enhanced during the storm, particularly in the southern hemisphere, reaching amplitudes of more than 20 K. The tropical diurnal migrating tide is weakened to almost undetectable levels. The diurnal Kelvin waves are also significantly weakened, particularly during the period of global expansion at Ls=200deg-210deg. In contrast, the westward propagating diurnal wavenumber 2 tide strengthens to 4-8 K at altitudes above 30km. The wavenumber 1 stationary wave reaches amplitudes of 10-12 K at 50deg-70degN, far larger than is typically seen during this time of year. The phase of this stationary wave and the enhancement of the diurnal wavenumber 2 tide appear to be responses to the high-altitude westward propagating equatorial wavenumber 1 structure in dust mixing ratio observed during the storm in previous works. This work provides a global picture of dust storm wave dynamics that reveals the coupling between the tropics and high-latitude wave responses. We conclude that the zonal distribution of thermotidal forcing from atmospheric aerosol concentration is as important to understanding the atmospheric wave response as the total global mean aerosol optical depth.

Fennec dust forecast intercomparison over the Sahara in June 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Flamant, Cyrille; Dauhut, Thibaut; Kocha, Cécile; Lafore, Jean-Philippe; Lavaysse, Chistophe; Marnas, Fabien; Mokhtari, Mohamed; Pelon, Jacques; Reinares Martínez, Irene; Schepanski, Kerstin; Tulet, Pierre

2016-06-01

In the framework of the Fennec international programme, a field campaign was conducted in June 2011 over the western Sahara. It led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) under the influence of the heat low. In support to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run daily at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara. At monthly scale, large aerosol optical depths (AODs) were forecast over the Sahara, a feature observed by satellite retrievals but with different magnitudes. The AOD intensity was correctly predicted by the high-resolution models, while it was underestimated by the low-resolution models. This was partly because of the generation of strong near-surface wind associated with thunderstorm-related density currents that could only be reproduced by models representing convection explicitly. Such models yield emissions mainly in the afternoon that dominate the total emission over the western fringes of the Adrar des Iforas and the Aïr Mountains in the high-resolution forecasts. Over the western Sahara, where the harmattan contributes up to 80 % of dust emission, all the models were successful in forecasting the deep well-mixed SABL. Some of them, however, missed the large near-surface dust concentration generated by density currents and low-level winds. This feature, observed repeatedly by the airborne lidar, was partly forecast by one high-resolution model only.

Fennec dust forecast intercomparison over the Sahara in June 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaboureau, J. P.; Flamant, C.; Dauhut, T.; Lafore, J. P.; Lavaysse, C.; Pelon, J.; Schepanski, K.; Tulet, P.

2016-12-01

In the framework of the Fennec international programme, a field campaign was conducted in June 2011 over the western Sahara. It led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the dynamics, thermodynam-ics and composition of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) under the influence of the heat low. In support to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run daily at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara. At monthly scale, large aerosol optical depths (AODs) were forecast over the Sahara, a feature observed by satellite retrievals but with different magnitudes. The AOD intensity was correctly predicted by the high-resolution models, while it was underestimated by the low-resolution models. This was partly because of the generation of strong near-surface wind associated with thunderstorm-related density currents that could only be reproduced by models representing convection explicitly. Such models yield emissions mainly in the afternoon that dominate the total emission over the western fringes of the Adrar des Iforas and the Aïr Mountains in the high-resolution forecasts. Over the western Sahara, where the harmattan contributes up to 80 % of dust emission, all the models were successful in forecasting the deep well-mixed SABL. Some of them, however, missed the large near-surface dust concentration generated by density currents and low-level winds. This feature, observed repeatedly by the airborne lidar, was partly forecast by one high-resolution model only.

Improving Air Pollution Modeling Over The Po Valley Using Saharan Dust Transport Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, P.; Carnevale, C.; Finzi, G.; Pisoni, E.; Volta, M.; Nickovic, S.; Alpert, P.

2012-04-01

Our study shows that Saharan dust can contribute significantly to PM10 concentrations in the Po Valley. This dust contribution should be taken into account when estimating the exceedance of pollution limits. The DREAM dust model has been used for several years for producing operational dust forecasts at Tel-Aviv University, Israel. DREAM has been producing daily forecasts of 3-D distribution of dust concentrations over the Mediterranean region, Middle East, Europe, and over the Atlantic Ocean (http://wind.tau.ac.il/dust8/dust.html). In the current study, DREAM dust forecasts were used to give better model estimates of the contribution of Saharan dust to PM10 concentration over the Po Valley, in Northern Italy. This was carried out by the integration of daily Saharan dust forecasts into a mesoscale Transport Chemical Aerosol Model (TCAM). The Po Valley in Northern Italy is frequently affected by high PM10 concentrations, where both natural and anthropogenic sources play a significant role. Our study of TCAM and DREAM integration was carried out for the period May 15 - June 30, 2007, when four significant dust events were observed. The integrated TCAM-DREAM model performance was evaluated by comparing PM10 measurements with modeled PM10 concentrations. First, Saharan dust impact on TCAM performance was analyzed at eleven remote PM10 sites which had the lowest level of air pollution (PM10 ≤ 14 μg/m3) over the period under consideration. For those remote sites, the observed high PM10 concentrations during dust events stood prominently on the background of low PM10 concentrations. At the remote sites, such a strong deviation from the background level can not be attributed to anthropogenic aerosol emissions because of their distance from anthropogenic sources. The observed maxima in PM10 concentration during dust events is evidence of dust aerosol near the surface in Northern Italy. During all dust events under consideration, the integrated TCAM-DREAM model produced more accurate PM10 concentrations than the base TCAM model. Then, a comparison between modeled concentrations and PM10 measurements was carried out at 230 PM10 monitoring sites, distributed within the model domain. This model-vs.-measurement comparison showed that the integrated TCAM -DREAM model more accurately reproduced PM10 concentrations than the base TCAM model, both in term of correlation and mean error. Our results are of importance to countries which have to pay a penalty for exceeding the pollution limit. By extracting dust contribution from PM10 measurements, these countries could show lower rates of man-made pollution.

The Peculiar Electrical Properties of the 8-12th September, 2015 Massive Dust Outbreak Over the Levant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yair, Y.; Katz, S.; Price, C.; Ziv, B.; Yaniv, R.

2016-12-01

Dust storms over the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean region are common and occur several times a year, depending on synoptic systems and meteorological parameters. Such storms are often accompanied by large electrical charging, most likely due to triboelectric processes (Esposito et al., 2016). The effects of dust storms on atmospheric electricity parameters such as the fair weather electric field (Ez) and current density (Jz) are well documented, but have not been extensively studied for the Levant region. We report new measurements conducted during the massive dust outbreak that occurred over the region in September 08-12, 2015. That event was one of the strongest dust storms on record and engulfed the entire region for 5 consecutive days, from Iraq through Syria, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Cyprus and Egypt. Ground-based measurements of Ez and Jz were conducted at the Wise Observatory (WO) in Mizpe-Ramon (30035'N, 34045'E) and at Mt. Hermon (30024'N, 35051'E). The Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) obtained from the AERONET station in Sde-Boker reached values up to 4.0. During the dust outbreak very large fluctuations in the electrical parameters were measured at both stations, however remarkable differences were noted. While at the Mt. Hermon station we registered strong positive values of the electric field and current density, the values registered at WO were significantly smaller and more negative. The Mt. Hermon site showed Ez and Jz values fluctuating between -460 and +570 V m-1 and -14.5 and +18 pA m-2 respectively. In contrast, Ez values registered at WO were between -430 and +10 V m-1, while the Jz fluctuated between -6 and +3 pA m-2 .When compared with the February 2015 electrified dust storm reported by Yair et al. (2016), we note substantial differences in the electric parameters variability, amplitude and polarity. The possible reasons for these differences will be discussed.

L-band microwave remote sensing and land data assimilation improve the representation of pre-storm soil moisture conditions for hydrologic forecasting.

PubMed

Crow, W T; Chen, F; Reichle, R H; Liu, Q

2017-06-16

Recent advances in remote sensing and land data assimilation purport to improve the quality of antecedent soil moisture information available for operational hydrologic forecasting. We objectively validate this claim by calculating the strength of the relationship between storm-scale runoff ratio (i.e., total stream flow divided by total rainfall accumulation in depth units) and pre-storm surface soil moisture estimates from a range of surface soil moisture data products. Results demonstrate that both satellite-based, L-band microwave radiometry and the application of land data assimilation techniques have significantly improved the utility of surface soil moisture data sets for forecasting stream flow response to future rainfall events.

L-band microwave remote sensing and land data assimilation improve the representation of pre-storm soil moisture conditions for hydrologic forecasting

PubMed Central

Crow, W.T.; Chen, F.; Reichle, R.H.; Liu, Q.

2018-01-01

Recent advances in remote sensing and land data assimilation purport to improve the quality of antecedent soil moisture information available for operational hydrologic forecasting. We objectively validate this claim by calculating the strength of the relationship between storm-scale runoff ratio (i.e., total stream flow divided by total rainfall accumulation in depth units) and pre-storm surface soil moisture estimates from a range of surface soil moisture data products. Results demonstrate that both satellite-based, L-band microwave radiometry and the application of land data assimilation techniques have significantly improved the utility of surface soil moisture data sets for forecasting stream flow response to future rainfall events. PMID:29657342

On using scatterometer and altimeter data to improve storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajo, Marco; Umgiesser, Georg; De Biasio, Francesco; Vignudelli, Stefano; Zecchetto, Stefano

2017-04-01

Satellite data are seldom used in storm surge forecasting. Among the most important issues related to the storm surge forecasting are the quality of the model wind forcing and the initial condition of the sea surface elevation. In this work, focused on storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea, satellite scatterometer wind data are used to correct the wind speed and direction biases of the ECMWF global atmospheric model by tuning the spatial fields, as an alternative to data assimilation. The capability of such an unbiased wind is tested against that of a high resolution wind, produced by a regional non-hydrostatic model. On the other hand, altimeter Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE) data, which provide the sea level elevation, are used to improve the accuracy of the initial state of the model simulations. This is done by assimilating into a storm surge model the TWLE obtained by the altimeter observations along ground tracks, after subtraction of the tidal components. In order to test the methodology, eleven storm surge events recorded in Venice, from 2008 to 2012, have been simulated using different configurations of forcing wind and altimeter data assimilation. Results show that the relative error on the estimation of the maximum surge peak, averaged over the cases considered, decreases from 13% to 7% using both the unbiased wind and the altimeter data assimilation, while forcing the hydrodynamic model with the high resolution wind (no tuning), the altimeter data assimilation reduces the error from 9% to 6%.

Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling from Regional to Global Earth System Models for High-Impact Extreme Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S. S.; Curcic, M.

2017-12-01

The need for acurrate and integrated impact forecasts of extreme wind, rain, waves, and storm surge is growing as coastal population and built environment expand worldwide. A key limiting factor in forecasting impacts of extreme weather events associated with tropical cycle and winter storms is fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model interface with explicit momentum and energy exchange. It is not only critical for accurate prediction of storm intensity, but also provides coherent wind, rian, ocean waves and currents forecasts for forcing for storm surge. The Unified Wave INterface (UWIN) has been developed for coupling of the atmosphere-wave-ocean models. UWIN couples the atmosphere, wave, and ocean models using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). It is a physically based and computationally efficient coupling sytem that is flexible to use in a multi-model system and portable for transition to the next generation global Earth system prediction mdoels. This standardized coupling framework allows researchers to develop and test air-sea coupling parameterizations and coupled data assimilation, and to better facilitate research-to-operation activities. It has been used and extensively tested and verified in regional coupled model forecasts of tropical cycles and winter storms (Chen and Curcic 2016, Curcic et al. 2016, and Judt et al. 2016). We will present 1) an overview of UWIN and its applications in fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model predictions of hurricanes and coastal winter storms, and 2) implenmentation of UWIN in the NASA GMAO GEOS-5.

Synoptic analysis and hindcast of an intense bow echo in Western Europe: The 09 June 2014 storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Luca; Ermert, Volker; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Ludwig, Patrick; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2017-04-01

On Pentecost Monday of 09 June 2014, a severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) hit Belgium and Western Germany. This storm was one of the most severe thunderstorms in Germany for decades. The synoptic-scale and mesoscale characteristics of this storm are analyzed based on remote sensing data and in-situ measurements. Moreover, the forecast potential of the storm is evaluated using sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model. The key ingredients for the development of the Pentecost storm were the concurrent presence of low-level moisture, atmospheric conditional instability and wind shear. The synoptic and mesoscale analysis shows that the outflow of a decaying MCS above northern France triggered the storm, which exhibited the typical features of a bow echo like a mesovortex and rear inflow jet. This resulted in hurricane-force wind gusts (reaching 40 m/s) along a narrow swath in the Rhine-Ruhr region leading to substantial damage. Operational numerical weather predictions models mostly failed to forecast the storm, but high-resolution regional model hindcasts enable a realistic simulation of the storm. The model experiments reveal that the development of the bow echo is particularly sensitive to the initial wind field and the lower tropospheric moisture content. Correct initial and boundary conditions are therefore necessary for realistic numerical forecasts of such a bow echo event. We conclude that the Pentecost storm exhibited a comparable structure and a similar intensity to the observed bow echo systems in the United States.

Inference of dust opacities for the 1977 Martian great dust storms from Viking Lander 1 pressure data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zurek, R. W.

1981-01-01

The tidal heating components for the dusty Martian atmosphere are computed based on dust optical parameters estimated from Viking Lander imaging data, and used to compute the variation of the tidal surface pressure components at the Viking Lander sites as a function of season and the total vertical extinction optical depth of the atmosphere. An atmospheric tidal model is used which is based on the inviscid, hydrostatic primitive equations linearized about a motionless basic state the temperature of which varies only with height, and the profiles of the tidal forcing components are computed using a delta-Eddington approximation to the radiative transfer equations. Comparison of the model results with the observed variations of surface pressure and overhead dust opacity at the Viking Lander 1 site reveal that the dust opacities and optical parameters derived from imaging data are roughly representative of the global dust haze necessary to reproduce the observed surface pressure amplitudes, with the exception of the model-inferred asymmetry parameter, which is smaller during the onset of a great storm. The observed preferential enhancement of the semidiurnal tide with respect to the diurnal tide during dust storm onset is shown to be due primarily to the elevation of the tidal heating source in a very dusty atmosphere.

Legal immigrants: invasion of alien microbial communities during winter occurring desert dust storms.

PubMed

Weil, Tobias; De Filippo, Carlotta; Albanese, Davide; Donati, Claudio; Pindo, Massimo; Pavarini, Lorenzo; Carotenuto, Federico; Pasqui, Massimiliano; Poto, Luisa; Gabrieli, Jacopo; Barbante, Carlo; Sattler, Birgit; Cavalieri, Duccio; Miglietta, Franco

2017-03-10

A critical aspect regarding the global dispersion of pathogenic microorganisms is associated with atmospheric movement of soil particles. Especially, desert dust storms can transport alien microorganisms over continental scales and can deposit them in sensitive sink habitats. In winter 2014, the largest ever recorded Saharan dust event in Italy was efficiently deposited on the Dolomite Alps and was sealed between dust-free snow. This provided us the unique opportunity to overcome difficulties in separating dust associated from "domestic" microbes and thus, to determine with high precision microorganisms transported exclusively by desert dust. Our metagenomic analysis revealed that sandstorms can move not only fractions but rather large parts of entire microbial communities far away from their area of origin and that this microbiota contains several of the most stress-resistant organisms on Earth, including highly destructive fungal and bacterial pathogens. In particular, we provide first evidence that winter-occurring dust depositions can favor a rapid microbial contamination of sensitive sink habitats after snowmelt. Airborne microbial depositions accompanying extreme meteorological events represent a realistic threat for ecosystem and public health. Therefore, monitoring the spread and persistence of storm-travelling alien microbes is a priority while considering future trajectories of climatic anomalies as well as anthropogenically driven changes in land use in the source regions.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

2015-12-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help MOSWOC forecasters view verification results in near real-time; plans to objectively assess flare forecasts under the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project; and summarise ISES efforts to achieve consensus on verification.

Mars dust storms - Interannual variability and chaos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Lyons, James R.

1993-01-01

The hypothesis is that the global climate system, consisting of atmospheric dust interacting with the circulation, produces its own interannual variability when forced at the annual frequency. The model has two time-dependent variables representing the amount of atmospheric dust in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Absorption of sunlight by the dust drives a cross-equatorial Hadley cell that brings more dust into the heated hemisphere. The circulation decays when the dust storm covers the globe. Interannual variability manifests itself either as a periodic solution in which the period is a multiple of the Martian year, or as an aperiodic (chaotic) solution that never repeats. Both kinds of solution are found in the model, lending support to the idea that interannual variability is an intrinsic property of the global climate system. The next step is to develop a hierarchy of dust-circulation models capable of being integrated for many years.

The eSurge-Venice project: how satellite data can improve the storm surge forecasting in the northern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zecchetto, Stefano; Vignudelli, Stefano; Donlon, Craig; De Biasio, Francesco; Della Valle, Antonio; Umgiesser, Georg; Bajo, Marco

The Data User Element (DUE) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) is funding two projects (eSurge and eSurge-Venice) aimed to demonstrate the improvement of the storm surge forecasting through the use of Earth Observation (EO) data. eSurge-Venice (http://www.esurge-venice.eu/), is specifically focused on the Gulf of Venice, northern Adriatic Sea. The project objectives are: a) Select a number of Storm Surge Events occurred in the Venice lagoon since 1999; b) Provide the available satellite EO data related to the Storm Surge Events, mainly satellite winds and altimeter data, as well as all the available in-situ data and model forecasts; c) Provide a demonstration Near Real Time service (eSurge-Venice live) of EO data products and services in support of operational and experimental forecasting and warning services; d) Run a number of re-analysis cases, both for historical and contemporary storm surge events, to demonstrate the usefulness of EO data. Present storm surge models use atmospheric model wind fields as forcing. These are know to underestimate the wind in small basins like the Adriatic Sea (~1000 km by 300 km), where the orography plays an important role in shaping the winds. Therefore there is the need to verify and tune the atmospheric model wind fields used in the storm surge modeling, an activity which can easily done using satellite scatterometer winds. The project is now in the middle of his life, and promising preliminary results have been achieved using satellite scatterometer wind data to forge the atmospheric model wind fields forcing the storm surge model. This contribution will present the methodology adopted to tune the model wind fields according to the bias with scatterometer winds and the improvements induced in the storm surge model hindcast.

Long-Term Variability of Airborne Asian Dust Observed from TOMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, J. R.; Hsu, N. C.; Seftor, C. J.; Holben, B. N.; Holben, B. N.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Recent studies suggest that airborne Asian dust may not only play an important role in the regional radiation budget, but also influence the air quality over North America through long-range transport. In this paper, we use satellite data to investigate the long-term variability of airborne Asian dust as well as the daily variation of the dust aerosol distribution. By combining the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) wind data, our analysis shows a strong correlation between the generation of dust storms in the region and the passage of springtime weather fronts. This is consistent with earlier studies performed by other researchers. According to both the Nimbus-7 and Earth-Probe TOMS data the Takla Makan desert, the Gobi desert, and the and region of Inner Mongolia are major sources of the eastward-flowing airborne Asian dust. Heavily populated areas in eastern China (e.g., Beijing) are often on the primary path of the dust storms originating in these desert regions. The increasing desertification north of the Beijing region has served to exacerbate problems stemming from these storms. The time series derived from 20 years of TOMS aerosol index data shows the first significant satellite evidence of the atmospheric effect of increasing desertification, indicating that the amount of dust blown eastward has increased strongly during the past few years including the year 2000.

Assimilation of ZDR Columns for Improving the Spin-Up and Forecasts of Convective Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlin, J.; Gao, J.; Snyder, J.; Ryzhkov, A.

2017-12-01

A primary motivation for assimilating radar reflectivity data is the reduction of spin-up time for modeled convection. To accomplish this, cloud analysis techniques seek to induce and sustain convective updrafts in storm-scale models by inserting temperature and moisture increments and hydrometeor mixing ratios into the model analysis from simple relations with reflectivity. Polarimetric radar data provide additional insight into the microphysical and dynamic structure of convection. In particular, the radar meteorology community has known for decades that convective updrafts cause, and are typically co-located with, differential reflectivity (ZDR) columns - vertical protrusions of enhanced ZDR above the environmental 0˚C level. Despite these benefits, limited work has been done thus far to assimilate dual-polarization radar data into numerical weather prediction models. In this study, we explore the utility of assimilating ZDR columns to improve storm-scale model analyses and forecasts of convection. We modify the existing Advanced Regional Prediction System's (ARPS) cloud analysis routine to adjust model temperature and moisture state variables using detected ZDR columns as proxies for convective updrafts, and compare the resultant cycled analyses and forecasts with those from the original reflectivity-based cloud analysis formulation. Results indicate qualitative and quantitative improvements from assimilating ZDR columns, including more coherent analyzed updrafts, forecast updraft helicity swaths that better match radar-derived rotation tracks, more realistic forecast reflectivity fields, and larger equitable threat scores. These findings support the use of dual-polarization radar signatures to improve storm-scale model analyses and forecasts.

Use of High-resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, William E.; LaCasse, K.; Goodman, S. J.

2006-01-01

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of recent forecast models such as WRF, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Six-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data yield the most realistic simulations. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics are employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

High-Resolution WRF Forecasts of Lightning Threat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.

2007-01-01

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)lightning and precipitation observations have confirmed the existence of a robust relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Initial experiments using 6-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. The WRF has been initialized on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics is employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

The formation of a large summertime Saharan dust plume: Convective and synoptic-scale analysis

PubMed Central

Roberts, A J; Knippertz, P

2014-01-01

Haboobs are dust storms produced by the spreading of evaporatively cooled air from thunderstorms over dusty surfaces and are a major dust uplift process in the Sahara. In this study observations, reanalysis, and a high-resolution simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to analyze the multiscale dynamics which produced a long-lived (over 2 days) Saharan mesoscale convective system (MCS) and an unusually large haboob in June 2010. An upper level trough and wave on the subtropical jet 5 days prior to MCS initiation produce a precipitating tropical cloud plume associated with a disruption of the Saharan heat low and moistening of the central Sahara. The restrengthening Saharan heat low and a Mediterranean cold surge produce a convergent region over the Hoggar and Aïr Mountains, where small convective systems help further increase boundary layer moisture. Emerging from this region the MCS has intermittent triggering of new cells, but later favorable deep layer shear produces a mesoscale convective complex. The unusually large size of the resulting dust plume (over 1000 km long) is linked to the longevity and vigor of the MCS, an enhanced pressure gradient due to lee cyclogenesis near the Atlas Mountains, and shallow precipitating clouds along the northern edge of the cold pool. Dust uplift processes identified are (1) strong winds near the cold pool front, (2) enhanced nocturnal low-level jet within the aged cold pool, and (3) a bore formed by the cold pool front on the nocturnal boundary layer. PMID:25844277

Emergency hospital visits in association with volcanic ash, dust storms and other sources of ambient particles: a time-series study in Reykjavík, Iceland.

PubMed

Carlsen, Hanne Krage; Gislason, Thorarinn; Forsberg, Bertil; Meister, Kadri; Thorsteinsson, Throstur; Jóhannsson, Thorsteinn; Finnbjornsdottir, Ragnhildur; Oudin, Anna

2015-04-13

Volcanic ash contributed significantly to particulate matter (PM) in Iceland following the eruptions in Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011. This study aimed to investigate the association between different PM sources and emergency hospital visits for cardiorespiratory causes from 2007 to 2012. Indicators of PM10 sources; "volcanic ash", "dust storms", or "other sources" (traffic, fireworks, and re-suspension) on days when PM10 exceeded the daily air quality guideline value of 50 µg/m3 were entered into generalized additive models, adjusted for weather, time trend and co-pollutants. The average number of daily emergency hospital visits was 10.5. PM10 exceeded the air quality guideline value 115 out of 2191 days; 20 days due to volcanic ash, 14 due to dust storms (two days had both dust storm and ash contribution) and 83 due to other sources. High PM10 levels from volcanic ash tended to be significantly associated with the emergency hospital visits; estimates ranged from 4.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.6, 9.2%) per day of exposure in unadjusted models to 7.3% (95% CI: -0.4, 15.5%) in adjusted models. Dust storms were not consistently associated with daily emergency hospital visits and other sources tended to show a negative association. We found some evidence indicating that volcanic ash particles were more harmful than particles from other sources, but the results were inconclusive and should be interpreted with caution.

The Environment of South Korea and Adjacent Sea Areas

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-09-01

3-41 3.3.9 Floods and Droughts .......................... .... 3-42 3.3.10 Dust Storms ......................... ......... 3-42 3.3.11...tidal as far inland as Naju. In times of drought, there is little natural flow and saltwater takes over the lower channel. However, late summer storms ...42 3.3.10 Dust Storms . . . a . a a a a a a 3-42 3.3.11 Icing and Freezing Levels . a a a a 3-42 3.3.12 Astronomical Date . a a a a a a a a 3-44 3.4

The opposition of Mars, 1999

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKim, R. J.

2007-12-01

The 1999 martian apparition was followed by BAA members while Mars Global Surveyor was monitoring the planet from martian orbit. The planet's surface showed little change from 1997, indicating the absence of any great dust storm since solar conjunction. The long period of telescopic coverage enabled us to conclude that neither was there any planet-encircling storm in the southern martian spring or summer in 1999-2000. Three small telescopic storms were followed along the Valles Marineris, and two were seen at the edge of the summer N. polar cap. Dust storms commencing at the historically rarely-active Margaritifer Sinus emergence site (MGS data) point to ongoing changes in the fallout pattern of atmospheric dust. White cloud activity was high before and around opposition time - in northern midsummer - with morning and evening limb hazes, the equatorial cloud band (ECB) and orographic clouds. The ECB 'season' was identical to 1997, pointing to an equally low level of atmospheric dust-loading. Comparison with historical records suggests that the seasonal 'wave of darkening' may be partly attributable to the annual disappearance of the ECB. This report covers the period 1998 September 12 (Ls = 28°) to 2000 March 13 (Ls = 318°)

Importance of dust storms in the diagenesis of sandstones: a case study, Entrada sandstone in the Ghost Ranch area, New Mexico, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orhan, Hükmü

1992-04-01

The importance of dust storms on geological processes has only been studied recently. Case-hardening, desert-varnish formation, duricrust development, reddening and cementation of sediments and caliche formation, are some important geological processes related to dust storms. Dust storms can also be a major source for cements in aeolian sandstones. The Jurassic aeolian Entrada Formation in the Ghost Ranch area is composed of quartz with minor amounts of feldspar and rock fragments, and is cemented with smectite as grain coatings and calcite and kaolinite as pore fillings. Smectite shows a crinkly and honeycomb-like morphology which points to an authigenic origin. The absence of smectite as framework grains and the presence of partially dissolved grains, coated with smectite and smectite egg-shells, indicate an external source. Clay and fine silt-size particles are believed to be the major source for cements, smectite and calcite in the Entrada Formation. The common association of kaolinite with altered feldspar, and the absence of kaolinite in spots heavily cemented with calcite, lead to the conclusions that the kaolinite formation postdates carbonates and that framework feldspar grains were the source of kaolinite.

The 1973 dust storm on Mars: Maps from hourly photographs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, L. J.

1975-01-01

The hourly progress of the 1973 major Martian storm was mapped using photographic images from the International Planetary Patrol. Two series of 20 daily maps show the semi-hourly positions of the storm brightenings in red light and blue light. The maps indicate that the 1973 storm had many similarities to the 1971 storm.

Satellite altimetry and the intensification of Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharroo, Remko; Smith, Walter H. F.; Lillibridge, John L.

Remotely sensed infrared images of Hurricane Katrina taken on 26, 27, and 28 August 2005 (Figure 1, left panels) show the aerial extent of the cloud cover and the central “eye” increasing as the storm that swamped areas of the U.S. Gulf Coast intensified. Computer animations of such image sequences show forecasters the tracks of storms and are a familiar staple of weather news. Less well known is the role that satellite altimetry plays both in forecasting conditions that can intensify a tropical storm and in observing the storm conditions at the sea surface.Satellite altimeter data indicate that Katrina intensified over areas of anomalously high dynamic topography rather than areas of unusually warm surface waters. Altimeter data from Katrina also for the first time observed the building of a storm surge.

Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC Composite Maps Fire Weather Graphical Composite Maps Forecast and observational maps for various fire

Hydrogen escape from Mars enhanced by deep convection in dust storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heavens, Nicholas G.; Kleinböhl, Armin; Chaffin, Michael S.; Halekas, Jasper S.; Kass, David M.; Hayne, Paul O.; McCleese, Daniel J.; Piqueux, Sylvain; Shirley, James H.; Schofield, John T.

2018-02-01

Present-day water loss from Mars provides insight into Mars's past habitability1-3. Its main mechanism is thought to be Jeans escape of a steady hydrogen reservoir sourced from odd-oxygen reactions with near-surface water vapour2, 4,5. The observed escape rate, however, is strongly variable and correlates poorly with solar extreme-ultraviolet radiation flux6-8, which was predicted to modulate escape9. This variability has recently been attributed to hydrogen sourced from photolysed middle atmospheric water vapour10, whose vertical and seasonal distribution is only partly characterized and understood11-13. Here, we report multi-annual observational estimates of water content and dust and water transport to the middle atmosphere from Mars Climate Sounder data. We provide strong evidence that the transport of water vapour and ice to the middle atmosphere by deep convection in Martian dust storms can enhance hydrogen escape. Planet-encircling dust storms can raise the effective hygropause (where water content rapidly decreases to effectively zero) from 50 to 80 km above the areoid (the reference equipotential surface). Smaller dust storms contribute to an annual mode in water content at 40-50 km that may explain seasonal variability in escape. Our results imply that Martian atmospheric chemistry and evolution can be strongly affected by the meteorology of the lower and middle atmosphere of Mars.

A numerical investigation of the President's Day storm of February 18-19, 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nappi, A. J.; Warner, T. T.

1983-01-01

The reported investigation is based on the use of a three-dimensional, primitive equation model. The President's Day storm, formed in the Gulf of Mexico as a massive anticyclone, affected the northern states with record-breaking cold temperatures. Attention is given to the physical processes relevant to storm formation, the forecast model, a description of experiments and model forecasts, and model results. An attempt is made to determine the important dynamic processes at work during the evolution of the storm. The jet streak interactions which occurred in the cyclogenetic environment, the effects of cold air damming, and the formation of a strong mesoscale coastal front are found to be of particular interest.

Dust emission and transport associated with a Saharan depression: The February 2007 case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karam, Diana Bou; Flamant, Cyrille; Cuesta, Juan; Pelon, Jacques; Williams, Earle

2010-05-01

The dust activity over North Africa associated with the Saharan depression event in February 2007 is investigated by mean of spaceborne observations, ground based measurements and mesoscale simulation with Meso-NH. The main characteristics of the cyclone as well as the meteorological conditions during this event are described using the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The dust storm and cloud cover over North Africa is thoroughly described combining for the first time Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) images for the spatio-temporal evolution and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and CloudSat observations for the vertical distribution. The Saharan depression formed over Algeria in the lee of the Atlas Mountain on the afternoon of February 20 in response to midlatitude trough intrusion. It migrated eastward with a speed of 11 m s-1 and reached Libya on February 22 before exiting the African continent toward the Mediterranean Sea on February 23. The horizontal scale of the cyclone at the surface varied between 800 km and 1000 km during its lifetime. On the vertical the cyclone extended over 8 km and a potential vorticity of 2 PVU was reported on its centre at 3 km in altitude. The cyclone was characterised by a surface pressure anomaly of about 9 hPa with respect to the environment, a warm front typified at the surface by an increase in surface temperature of 5°C, and a sharp cold front characterized by a drop in surface temperature of 8°C and an increase in 10 m wind speed of 15 m s-1. The cyclone provided a dynamical forcing that led to strong near-surface winds and produced a major dust storm over North Africa. The dust was transported all around the cyclone leaving a clear eye on its centre and was accompanied by a deep cloud band along the northwestern edge of the cyclone. On the vertical, slanted dust layers were consistently observed during the event over North Africa. Furthermore, the dust was lofted to altitudes as high as 7 km, becoming subject to long range transport. The model was able to reproduce reasonably the structure, the lifetime and the trajectory of the cyclone. Also comparison with MODIS deep blue AODs and CALIPSO/CloudSat observations suggests that the model can be used reliably to quantify the dust emissions associated with this event. The mean daily dust loads over the area influenced by the cyclone were simulated to range between 2 and 8 Tg during the lifetime of the Sharav cyclone (i.e. 5 days). This study suggests that dust emissions linked with Saharan cyclones may contribute significantly to the total dust load over West and North Africa observed annually.

Dust emission and transport associated with a Saharan depression: February 2007 case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bou Karam, Diana; Flamant, Cyrille; Cuesta, Juan; Pelon, Jacques; Williams, Earle

2010-01-01

The dust activity over North Africa associated with the Saharan depression event in February 2007 is investigated by mean of spaceborne observations, ground-based measurements, and mesoscale simulation with Meso-NH. The main characteristics of the cyclone as well as the meteorological conditions during this event are described using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The dust storm and cloud cover over North Africa is thoroughly described combining for the first time Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) images for the spatiotemporal evolution and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) and CloudSat observations for the vertical distribution. The Saharan depression formed over Algeria in the lee of the Atlas Mountains on the afternoon of 20 February in response to midlatitude trough intrusion. It migrated eastward with a speed of 11 m s-1 and reached Libya on 22 February before exiting the African continent toward the Mediterranean Sea on 23 February. The horizontal scale of the cyclone at the surface varied between 800 and 1000 km during its lifetime. On the vertical the cyclone extended over 8 km, and a potential vorticity of 2 potential vorticity units (PVU) was reported at its center at 3 km in altitude. The cyclone was characterized by a surface pressure anomaly of about 9 hPa with respect to the environment, a warm front typified at the surface by an increase in surface temperature of 5°C, and a sharp cold front characterized by a drop in surface temperature of 8°C and an increase in 10 m wind speed of 15 m s-1. The cyclone provided dynamical forcing that led to strong near-surface winds and produced a major dust storm over North Africa. The dust was transported all around the cyclone leaving a clear eye at its center and was accompanied by a deep cloud band along the northwestern edge of the cyclone. On the vertical, slanted dust layers were consistently observed during the event over North Africa. Furthermore, the dust was lofted to altitudes as high as 7 km, becoming subject to long-range transport. The model was able to reasonably reproduce the structure, lifetime, and trajectory of the cyclone. Also, comparison with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) deep blue aerosol optical depths and CALIPSO-CloudSat observations suggests that the model can be reliably used to quantify the dust emissions associated with this event. The mean daily dust loads over the area influenced by the cyclone were simulated to range between 2 and 8 Tg during the lifetime of the Sharav cyclone (i.e., 5 days). This study suggests that dust emissions linked with Saharan cyclones may contribute significantly to the total dust load over West and North Africa observed annually.

Chemical, Mineralogical, and Physical Properties of Martian Dust and Soil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ming, D. W.; Morris, R. V.

2017-01-01

Global and regional dust storms on Mars have been observed from Earth-based telescopes, Mars orbiters, and surface rovers and landers. Dust storms can be global and regional. Dust is material that is suspended into the atmosphere by winds and has a particle size of 1-3 micrometer. Planetary scientist refer to loose unconsolidated materials at the surface as "soil." The term ''soil'' is used here to denote any loose, unconsolidated material that can be distinguished from rocks, bedrock, or strongly cohesive sediments. No implication for the presence or absence of organic materials or living matter is intended. Soil contains local and regional materials mixed with the globally distributed dust by aeolian processes. Loose, unconsolidated surface materials (dust and soil) may pose challenges for human exploration on Mars. Dust will no doubt adhere to spacesuits, vehicles, habitats, and other surface systems. What will be the impacts on human activity? The objective of this paper is to review the chemical, mineralogical, and physical properties of the martian dust and soil.

Use of Combined A-Train Observations to Validate GEOS Model Simulated Dust Distributions During NAMMA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowottnick, E.

2007-01-01

During August 2006, the NASA African Multidisciplinary Analyses Mission (NAMMA) field experiment was conducted to characterize the structure of African Easterly Waves and their evolution into tropical storms. Mineral dust aerosols affect tropical storm development, although their exact role remains to be understood. To better understand the role of dust on tropical cyclogenesis, we have implemented a dust source, transport, and optical model in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system. Our dust source scheme is more physically based scheme than previous incarnations of the model, and we introduce improved dust optical and microphysical processes through inclusion of a detailed microphysical scheme. Here we use A-Train observations from MODIS, OMI, and CALIPSO with NAMMA DC-8 flight data to evaluate the simulated dust distributions and microphysical properties. Our goal is to synthesize the multi-spectral observations from the A-Train sensors to arrive at a consistent set of optical properties for the dust aerosols suitable for direct forcing calculations.

Water vapor in the middle atmosphere of Mars during the 2007 global dust storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedorova, Anna; Bertaux, Jean-Loup; Betsis, Daria; Montmessin, Franck; Korablev, Oleg; Maltagliati, Luca; Clarke, John

2018-01-01

Recent observations of the Martian hydrogen corona in the UV H Ly-alpha emission by the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) (Clarke et al., 2014) and the SPICAM UV spectrometer on Mars Express (Chaffin et al., 2014) reported its rapid change by an order of magnitude over a short few months period in 2007 (MY28), which is inconsistent with the existing models. One proposed explanation of the observed increase of the coronal emission is that during the global dust storm water vapor from the lower atmosphere can be transported to higher altitudes, where its photodissociation rate by near-UV sunlight increases, providing an additional source of hydrogen for the upper atmosphere. In this work we study the water vapor vertical distribution in the middle atmosphere of Mars during the 2007 global dust storm based on solar occultation measurements by the SPICAM IR spectrometer onboard the Mars-Express spacecraft. The vertical profiles of H2O density and mixing ratio have been obtained for solar longitudes Ls = 255°-300° in MY28. In the Northern hemisphere from Ls = 268° to Ls = 285° the H2O density at altitudes of 60-80 km increased by an order of magnitude. During the dust storm the profiles extended up to 80 km, with an H2O density exceeding 1010 molecules/cm3 (mixing ratio ≥200 ppm). Two maxima of the H2O density were detected. The largest H2O densities observed at latitudes higher than 60°N, over Ls = 269°-275°, do not directly correlate with the aerosol loading and likely relate to the downwelling branch of the meridional circulation that was intensified during the dust storm, and transported water from the Southern hemisphere to high northern latitudes. The second smaller maximum coincides with the high dust loading at middle northern latitudes. The comparison with geographically close observations in the quiet Mars year MY32, when the H2O content in the Northern hemisphere did not exceed 2 × 1010 molecules/cm3 and 50 ppm at 60 km, showed that the global dust storm was a unique event. The situation was different in the Southern hemisphere. During the dust storm the water density at 50-80 km increased by a factor of 4-5 with a mixing ratio >100 ppm, well correlated with the aerosol vertical extension. A somewhat weaker increase of the H2O density by a factor of 2-3 with a mixing ratio > 100 ppm was also observed during MY32 starting from Ls = 260°, suggesting a seasonal repeatability. The observed amount of water at high altitudes in both hemispheres can produce a large increase in the H escape rate on a timescale of weeks, as was shown in the photochemical modeling by Chaffin et al. (2017). Future modeling would be necessary to separate the seasonal and the dust storm contributions to the hydrogen escape.

The Development of Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System and Case Study of Typhoon Meranti in 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Terng, C. T.; Chu, C. H.

2017-12-01

Taiwan is under the threat of storm surge and associated inundation, which is located at a potentially severe storm generation zone. The use of ensemble prediction can help forecasters to know the characteristic of storm surge under the uncertainty of track and intensity. In addition, it can help the deterministic forecasting. In this study, the kernel of ensemble prediction system is based on COMCOT-SURGE (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge). COMCOT-SURGE solves nonlinear shallow water equations in Open Ocean and coastal regions with the nested-grid scheme and adopts wet-dry-cell treatment to calculate potential inundation area. In order to consider tide-surge interaction, the global TPXO 7.1 tide model provides the tidal boundary conditions. After a series of validations and case studies, COMCOT-SURGE has become an official operating system of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan. In this study, the strongest typhoon in 2016, Typhoon Meranti, is chosen as a case study. We adopt twenty ensemble members from CWB WRF Ensemble Prediction System (CWB WEPS), which differs from parameters of microphysics, boundary layer, cumulus, and surface. From box-and-whisker results, maximum observed storm surges were located in the interval of the first and third quartile at more than 70 % gauge locations, e.g. Toucheng, Chengkung, and Jiangjyun. In conclusion, the ensemble prediction can effectively help forecasters to predict storm surge especially under the uncertainty of storm track and intensity

Hybrid vs Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filtering for Storm Surge Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altaf, M. U.; Raboudi, N.; Gharamti, M. E.; Dawson, C.; McCabe, M. F.; Hoteit, I.

2014-12-01

Recent storm surge events due to Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have motivated the efforts to accurately forecast water levels. Toward this goal, a parallel architecture has been implemented based on a high resolution storm surge model, ADCIRC. However the accuracy of the model notably depends on the quality and the recentness of the input data (mainly winds and bathymetry), model parameters (e.g. wind and bottom drag coefficients), and the resolution of the model grid. Given all these uncertainties in the system, the challenge is to build an efficient prediction system capable of providing accurate forecasts enough ahead of time for the authorities to evacuate the areas at risk. We have developed an ensemble-based data assimilation system to frequently assimilate available data into the ADCIRC model in order to improve the accuracy of the model. In this contribution we study and analyze the performances of different ensemble Kalman filter methodologies for efficient short-range storm surge forecasting, the aim being to produce the most accurate forecasts at the lowest possible computing time. Using Hurricane Ike meteorological data to force the ADCIRC model over a domain including the Gulf of Mexico coastline, we implement and compare the forecasts of the standard EnKF, the hybrid EnKF and an adaptive EnKF. The last two schemes have been introduced as efficient tools for enhancing the behavior of the EnKF when implemented with small ensembles by exploiting information from a static background covariance matrix. Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all these filters. Our results suggest that both the hybrid and the adaptive approach provide significantly better forecasts than those resulting from the standard EnKF, even when implemented with much smaller ensembles.

Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

Sensitivity of surface characteristics on the simulation of wind-blown-dust source in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S. H.; Gong, S. L.; Gong, W.; Makar, P. A.; Moran, M. D.; Stroud, C. A.; Zhang, J.

Recently, a wind-blown-dust-emission module has been built based on a state-of-the-art wind erosion theory and evaluated in a regional air-quality model to simulate a North American dust storm episode in April 2001 (see Park, S.H., Gong, S.L., Zhao, T.L., Vet, R.J., Bouchet, V.S., Gong, W., Makar, P.A., Moran, M.D., Stroud, C., Zhang, J. 2007. Simulation of entrainment and transport of dust particles within North America in April 2001 ("Red Dust episode"). J. Geophys. Res. 112, D20209, doi:10.1029/2007JD008443). A satisfactorily detailed assessment of that module, however, was not possible because of a lack of information on some module inputs, especially soil moisture content. In this paper, the wind-blown-dust emission was evaluated for two additional dust storms using improved soil moisture inputs. The surface characteristics of the wind-blown-dust source areas in southwestern North America were also investigated, focusing on their implications for wind-blown-dust emissions. The improved soil moisture inputs enabled the sensitivity of other important surface characteristics, the soil grain size distribution and the land-cover, to dust emission to be investigated with more confidence. Simulations of the two 2003 dust storm episodes suggested that wind-blown-dust emissions from the desert areas in southwestern North America are dominated by emissions from dry playas covered with accumulated alluvial deposits whose particle size is much smaller than usual desert sands. As well, the source areas in the northwestern Texas region were indicated to be not desert but rather agricultural lands that were "activated" as a wind-blown-dust sources after harvest. This finding calls for revisions to the current wind-blown-dust-emission module, in which "desert" is designated to be the only land-cover category that can emit wind-blown dust.

Dust storm, northern Mexico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

This large dust storm along the left side of the photo, covers a large portion of the state of Coahuila, Mexico (27.5N, 102.0E). The look angle of this oblique photo is from the south to the north. In the foreground is the Sierra Madre Oriental in the states Coahuila and Nuevo Leon with the Rio Grande River, Amistad Reservoir and Texas in the background.

PM10 Concentration levels at an urban and background site in Cyprus: The impact of urban sources and dust storms

PubMed Central

Achilleos, Souzana; Evans, John S.; Yiallouros, Panayiotis K.; Kleanthous, Savvas; Schwartz, Joel; Koutrakis, Petros

2016-01-01

Air quality in Cyprus is influenced by both local and transported pollution including desert dust storms. We examined PM10 concentration data collected in Nicosia (urban representative) from April 1, 1993 through December 11, 2008, and Ayia Marina (rural background representative) from January 1, 1999 through December 31, 2008. Measurements were conducted using a Tapered Element Oscillating Micro-balance (TEOM). PM10 concentrations, meteorological records and satellite data were used to identify dust storm days. We investigated long term trends using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) after controlling for day of week, month, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. In Nicosia, annual PM10 concentrations ranged from 50.4 to 63.8 μg/m3 and exceeded the EU annual standard limit enacted in 2005 of 40 μg/m3 every year. A large, statistically significant impact of urban sources (defined as the difference between urban and background levels) was seen in Nicosia over the period 2000–2008, and was highest during traffic hours, weekdays, cold months, and low wind conditions. Our estimate of the mean (standard error) contribution of urban sources to the daily ambient PM10 was 24.0 (0.4) μg/m3. The study of yearly trends showed that PM10 levels in Nicosia decreased from 59.4 μg/m3 in 1993 to 49.0 μg/m3 in 2008, probably in part as a result of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus. In Ayia Marina, annual concentrations ranged from 27.3 to 35.6 μg/m3, and no obvious time trends were observed. The levels measured at the Cyprus background site are comparable to background concentrations reported in other Eastern Mediterranean countries. Average daily PM10 concentrations during desert dust storms were around 100 μg/m3 since 2000 and much higher in earlier years. Despite the large impact of dust storms and their increasing frequency over time, dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the exceedances of the daily PM10 limit. PMID:25562931

High-throughput sequencing analysis of the bacteria in the dust storm which passed over Canberra, Australia on 22-23 September 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munday, Chris; De Deckker, Patrick; Tapper, Nigel; Allison, Gwen

2014-05-01

Following a prolonged drought in Australia in the first decade of the 21st century, several dust storms affected the heavily populated East coast of Australia. The largest such storm occurred on 22-23 September 2009 and had a front of an estimated 3000km. A 24hr average PM10 concentration of over 2,000μg/m3 was recorded in several locations and an hourly peak of over 15,000μg/m3 was recorded (Leys et al. 2011). Over two time periods duplicate aerosol samples were collected on 47mm diameter cellulose nitrate membranes at a location removed from anthropogenic influences. One set of samples was collected in the afternoon the dust event started and another was collected overnight. Additionally, overnight rainfall was collected in a sterile bottle.DNA was directly extracted one membrane from each time point for molecular cloning and high throughput sequencing, while the other was cultivated on Tryptic Soy Agar (TSA). High throughput sequencing was performed using the 454 Titanium platform. From the three samples, 19,945 curated sequences were obtained representing 942 OTUS, with the three samples approximately equal in number. Unclassified Rhizobiales and Stenotrophomonas were the most abundant groups which could be attributed names. A total of 942 OTUs were identified (cutoff = 0.03), and despite the temporal relation of the samples, only eleven were found in all three samples, indicating that the dust storm evolved in composition as it passed over the region. Approximately 800 and 500 CFU/m3 were found in the two cultivated samples, tenfold more than was collected from previous dust events (Lim et al, 2011). Identification of cultivars revealed a dominance of the gram positive Firmicutes phylum, while the clone library showed a more even distribution of taxa, with Actinobacteria the most common and Firmicutes comprising less than 10% of sequences. Collectively, the analyses indicate that the concentration of cultivable organisms during the dust storm dramatically relative to calm conditions. A diverse and variable population of microorganisms were present reflecting the vast source and dynamic nature of the storm.

Derivation of an observation-based map of North African dust emission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evan, Amato T.; Fiedler, Stephanie; Zhao, Chun

Changes in the emission, transport and deposition of aeolian dust have profound effects on regional climate, so that characterizing the lifecycle of dust in observations and improving the representation of dust in global climate models is necessary. A fundamental aspect of characterizing the dust cycle is quantifying surface dust fluxes, yet no spatially explicit estimates of this flux exist for the World’s major source regions. Here we present a novel technique for creating a map of the annual mean emitted dust flux for North Africa based on retrievals of dust storm frequency from the Meteosat Second Generation Spinning Enhanced Visiblemore » and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and the relationship between dust storm frequency and emitted mass flux derived from the output of five models that simulate dust. Our results suggest that 64 (±16)% of all dust emitted from North Africa is from the Bodélé depression, and that 13 (±3)% of the North African dust flux is from a depression lying in the lee of the Aïr and Hoggar Mountains, making this area the second most important region of emission within North Africa.« less

Gusev Dust Devil, sol 532

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

This movie clip shows a dust devil seen by NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Spirit during the rover's 532nd martian day, or sol (July 2, 2005). The dust-carrying whirlwind is moving across a plain inside Gusev Crater and viewed from Spirit's vantage point on hills rising from the plain. The clip consists of frames taken by Spirit's navigation camera, processed to enhance contrast for anything in the images that changes from frame to frame. The total elapsed time during the taking of these frames was 8 minutes, 48 seconds.

Spirit began seeing dust devil activity around the beginning of Mars' spring season. Activity increased as spring continued, but fell off again for about two weeks during a dust storm. As the dust storm faded away, dust devil activity came back. In the mid-afternoons as the summer solstice approached, dust devils were a very common occurrence on the floor of Gusev crater. The early-spring dust devils tended to move southwest-to-northeast, across the dust devil streaks in Gusev seen from orbit. Increasingly as the season progresses, the dust devils are seen moving northwest-to-southeast, in the same direction as the streaks. Scientists are watching for the big dust devils that leave those streaks.

A short-term ionospheric forecasting empirical regional model (IFERM) to predict the critical frequency of the F2 layer during moderate, disturbed, and very disturbed geomagnetic conditions over the European area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrella, M.

2012-02-01

A short-term ionospheric forecasting empirical regional model (IFERM) has been developed to predict the state of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) under different geomagnetic conditions. IFERM is based on 13 short term ionospheric forecasting empirical local models (IFELM) developed to predict foF2 at 13 ionospheric observatories scattered around the European area. The forecasting procedures were developed by taking into account, hourly measurements of foF2, hourly quiet-time reference values of foF2 (foF2QT), and the hourly time-weighted accumulation series derived from the geomagnetic planetary index ap, (ap(τ)), for each observatory. Under the assumption that the ionospheric disturbance index ln(foF2/foF2QT) is correlated to the integrated geomagnetic disturbance index ap(τ), a set of statistically significant regression coefficients were established for each observatory, over 12 months, over 24 h, and under 3 different ranges of geomagnetic activity. This data was then used as input to compute short-term ionospheric forecasting of foF2 at the 13 local stations under consideration. The empirical storm-time ionospheric correction model (STORM) was used to predict foF2 in two different ways: scaling both the hourly median prediction provided by IRI (STORM_foF2MED,IRI model), and the foF2QT values (STORM_foF2QT model) from each local station. The comparison between the performance of STORM_foF2MED,IRI, STORM_foF2QT, IFELM, and the foF2QT values, was made on the basis of root mean square deviation (r.m.s.) for a large number of periods characterized by moderate, disturbed, and very disturbed geomagnetic activity. The results showed that the 13 IFELM perform much better than STORM_foF2,sub>MED,IRI and STORM_foF2QT especially in the eastern part of the European area during the summer months (May, June, July, and August) and equinoctial months (March, April, September, and October) under disturbed and very disturbed geomagnetic conditions, respectively. The performance of IFELM is also very good in the western and central part of the Europe during the summer months under disturbed geomagnetic conditions. STORM_foF2MED,IRI performs particularly well in central Europe during the equinoctial months under moderate geomagnetic conditions and during the summer months under very disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The forecasting maps generated by IFERM on the basis of the results provided by the 13 IFELM, show very large areas located at middle-high and high latitudes where the foF2 predictions quite faithfully match the foF2 measurements, and consequently IFERM can be used for generating short-term forecasting maps of foF2 (up to 3 h ahead) over the European area.

Ocean modelling and Early-Warning System for the Gulf of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima Rego, Joao; Yan, Kun; Sisomphon, Piyamarn; Thanathanphon, Watin; Twigt, Daniel; Irazoqui Apecechea, Maialen

2017-04-01

Storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones are among the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters to coastal areas. The Gulf of Thailand (GoT) has been periodically affected by typhoon induced storm surges in the past (e.g. storm Harriet in 1962, storm Gay in 1989 and storm Linda in 1997). Due to increased touristic / economic development and increased population density in the coastal zone, the combined effect and risk of high water level and increased rainfall / river discharge has dramatically increased and are expected to increase in future due to climate change effects. This presentation describes the development and implementation of the first real-time operational storm surge, wave and wave setup forecasting system in the GoT, a joint applied research initiative by Deltares in The Netherlands and the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII) in Thailand. The modelling part includes a new hydrodynamic model to simulate tides and storm surges and two wave models (regional and local). The hydrodynamic model is based on Delft3D Flexible Mesh, capable of simulating water levels and detailed flows. The regional and the recently-developed local wave model are based on the SWAN model, a third-generation wave model. The operational platform is based on Delft-FEWS software, which coordinates all the data inputs, the modelling tasks and the automatic forecast exports including overland inundation in the upper Gulf of Thailand. The main objective of the Gulf of Thailand EWS is to provide daily accurate storm surge, wave and wave setup estimates automatically with various data exports possibilities to support this task. It adds a coastal component to HAII's existing practice of providing daily reports on fluvial flood forecasts, used for decision-support in issuing flood warnings for inland water systems in Thailand. Every day, three-day coastal forecasts are now produced based on the latest regional meteorological predictions. Examples are given to illustrate the system's development and main features, with a focus on decision-support products.

Dust Streams from Tunisia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

On October 6, 2001, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) captured this true-color image of a large dust storm blowing northeastward across the Mediterranean Sea from Tunisia. According to Joseph Prospero, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Miami, there is an unusual arc-shaped 'front' to the dust cloud. The storm's shape suggests that the source of the dust is rather small and that the meteorology driving it rather unusual. The dust seems to be coming out of the wadis, dry lakebeds and riverbeds, at the base of the Tell Atlas Mountains in northern Tunisia and eastern Algeria. The dust appears to be blowing toward the island of Sicily, Italy (toward the upper righthand corner). Also notice there is a relatively thin plume of smoke emanating eastward from the top of Mount Etna on Sicily. Image courtesy the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE

Science.gov Websites

Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE Marine Forecast greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCTS VIA ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE NOAA broadcasts offshore forecasts, nearshore forecasts and storm warnings on marine VHF channels

Spring Dust Storm Smothers Beijing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

A few days earlier than usual, a large, dense plume of dust blew southward and eastward from the desert plains of Mongolia-quite smothering to the residents of Beijing. Citizens of northeastern China call this annual event the 'shachenbao,' or 'dust cloud tempest.' However, the tempest normally occurs during the spring time. The dust storm hit Beijing on Friday night, March 15, and began coating everything with a fine, pale brown layer of grit. The region is quite dry; a problem some believe has been exacerbated by decades of deforestation. According to Chinese government estimates, roughly 1 million tons of desert dust and sand blow into Beijing each year. This true-color image was made using two adjacent swaths (click to see the full image) of data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), flying aboard the OrbView-2 satellite, on March 17, 2002. The massive dust storm (brownish pixels) can easily be distinguished from clouds (bright white pixels) as it blows across northern Japan and eastward toward the open Pacific Ocean. The black regions are gaps between SeaWiFS' viewing swaths and represent areas where no data were collected. Image courtesy the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

Albedo models for the residual south polar cap on Mars: Implications for the stability of the cap under near-perihelion global dust storm conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonev, Boncho P.; Hansen, Gary B.; Glenar, David A.; James, Philip B.; Bjorkman, Jon E.

2008-02-01

It is uncertain whether the residual (perennial) south polar cap on Mars is a transitory or a permanent feature in the current Martian climate. While there is no firm evidence for complete disappearance of the cap in the past, clearly observable changes have been documented. Observations suggest that the perennial cap lost more CO 2 material in the spring/summer season prior to the Mariner 9 mission than in those same seasons monitored by Viking and Mars Global Surveyor. In this paper we examine one process that may contribute to these changes - the radiative effects of a planet encircling dust storm that starts during late Martian southern spring on the stability of the perennial south polar cap. To approach this, we model the radiative transfer through a dusty planetary atmosphere bounded by a sublimating CO 2 surface. A critical parameter for this modeling is the surface albedo spectrum from the near-UV to the thermal-IR, which was determined from both space-craft and Earth-based observations covering multiple wavelength regimes. Such a multi-wavelength approach is highly desirable since one spectral band by itself cannot tightly constrain the three-parameter space for polar surface albedo models, namely photon "scattering length" in the CO 2 ice and the amounts of intermixed water and dust. Our results suggest that a planet-encircling dust storm with onset near solstice can affect the perennial cap's stability, leading to advanced sublimation in a "dusty" year. Since the total amount of solid CO 2 removed by a single storm may be less than the total CO 2 thickness, a series of dust storms would be required to remove the entire residual CO 2 ice layer from the south perennial cap.

Biological response to coastal upwelling and dust deposition in the area off Northwest Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohde, T.; Siegel, H.

2010-05-01

Nutrient supply in the area off Northwest Africa is mainly regulated by two processes, coastal upwelling and deposition of Saharan dust. In the present study, both processes were analyzed and evaluated by different methods, including cross-correlation, multiple correlation, and event statistics, using remotely sensed proxies of the period from 2000 to 2008 to investigate their influence on the marine environment. The remotely sensed chlorophyll- a concentration was used as a proxy for the phytoplankton biomass stimulated by nutrient supply into the euphotic zone from deeper water layers and from the atmosphere. Satellite-derived alongshore wind stress and sea-surface temperature were applied as proxies for the strength and reflection of coastal upwelling processes. The westward wind and the dust component of the aerosol optical depth describe the transport direction of atmospheric dust and the atmospheric dust column load. Alongshore wind stress and induced upwelling processes were most significantly responsible for the surface chlorophyll- a variability, accounting for about 24% of the total variance, mainly in the winter and spring due to the strong north-easterly trade winds. The remotely sensed proxies allowed determination of time lags between biological response and its forcing processes. A delay of up to 16 days in the surface chlorophyll- a concentration due to the alongshore wind stress was determined in the northern winter and spring. Although input of atmospheric iron by dust storms can stimulate new phytoplankton production in the study area, only 5% of the surface chlorophyll- a variability could be ascribed to the dust component in the aerosol optical depth. All strong desert storms were identified by an event statistics in the time period from 2000 to 2008. The 57 strong storms were studied in relation to their biological response. Six events were clearly detected in which an increase of chlorophyll- a was caused by Saharan dust input and not by coastal upwelling processes. Time lags of <8 days, 8 days, and 16 days were determined. An increase in surface chlorophyll- a concentration of up to 2.4 mg m -3 after dust storms in which the dust component of the aerosol optical depth was up to 0.9 was observed.

Field observation on secondary organic aerosols during Asian dust storm periods: Formation mechanism of oxalic acid and related compounds on dust surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gehui; Cheng, Chunlei; Meng, Jingjing; Huang, Yao; Li, Jianjun; Ren, Yanqin

2015-07-01

Chemical evolution of East Asian dust during transpacific transport has been given much attention for inorganic species such as sulfate, nitrate and ammonium. However, the role of organic species during the transport has almost entirely been ignored. To understand the formation mechanism of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) on dust surfaces, this study investigated the concentrations and compositions of dicarboxylic acids, keto-carboxylic acids, α-dicarbonyls and inorganic ions in size-segregated aerosols (9-stages) collected in Xi'an, central China during the two dust storm episodes in the springs of 2009 and 2011 and compared with those in nondust storm periods. During the events the ambient particulate dicarboxylic acids were 932-2240 ng m-3, which are comparable and even higher than those in nondust periods. Molecular compositions of the above SOA are similar to those in nondust periods with oxalic acid being the leading species. In the presence of the dust storms, all the above mentioned SOA species in Xi'an were predominantly enriched on the coarse particles (>2.1 μm), and oxalic acid well correlated with NO3- (R2 = 0.72, p < 0.001) rather than SO42-. This phenomenon differs greatly from the SOA in any other nondust period that is usually characterized by an enrichment of oxalic acid in fine mode and a strong correlation of oxalic acid with SO42-. We propose a formation pathway to explain these observations, in which nitric acid and/or nitrogen oxides react with dust to produce Ca(NO3)2 and form a liquid phase on the surface of dust aerosols via water vapor-absorption of Ca(NO3)2, followed by a partitioning of the gas-phase water-soluble organic precursors (e.g.,glyoxal and methylglyoxal) into the aqueous-phase and a subsequent oxidation into oxalic acid. To the best of our knowledge, we found for the first time the enrichment of glyoxal and methylglyoxal on dust surface. Our data suggest an important role of nitrate in the heterogeneous formation process of SOA on the surface of dust.

Designsafe-Ci a Cyberinfrastructure for Natural Hazard Simulation and Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, C.; Rathje, E.; Stanzione, D.; Padgett, J.; Pinelli, J. P.

2017-12-01

DesignSafe is the web-based research platform of the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) network that provides the computational tools needed to manage and analyze critical data for natural hazards research, with wind and storm surge related hazards being a primary focus. One of the simulation tools under DesignSafe is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model, a coastal ocean model used in storm surge analysis. ADCIRC is an unstructured, finite element model with high resolution capabilities for studying storm surge impacts, and has long been used in storm surge hind-casting and forecasting. In this talk, we will demonstrate the use of ADCIRC within the DesignSafe platform and its use for forecasting Hurricane Harvey. We will also demonstrate how to analyze, visualize and archive critical storm surge related data within DesignSafe.

Using thermal infrared (TIR) data to characterize dust sources, dust fall and the linkage to climate in the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammad, R.; Ramsey, M.; Scheidt, S. P.

2010-12-01

Prior to mineral dust deposition affecting albedo, aerosols can have direct and indirect effects on local to regional scale climate by changing both the shortwave and longwave radiative forcing. In addition, mineral dust causes health hazards, such as respiratory-related illnesses and deaths, loss of agricultural soil, and safety hazards to aviation and motorists due to reduced visibility. Previous work utilized satellite and ground-based TIR data to describe the direct longwave radiative effect of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over the Atlantic Ocean originating from dust storms in the Western Sahara. TIR emission spectroscopy was used to identify the spectral absorption features of that dust. The current research focuses on Kuwait and utilizes a comprehensive set of spatial, analytical and geological tools to characterize dust emissions and its radiative effects. Surface mineral composition maps for the Kuwait region were created using ASTER images and GIS datasets in order to identify the possible sources of wind-blown dust. Backward trajectory analysis using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model suggests the dust source areas were located in Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Samples collected from two dust storms (May and July 2010) were analyzed for their mineral composition and to validate the dust source areas identified by the modeling and remote sensing analysis. These air fall dust samples were collected in glass containers on a 13 meter high rooftop in the suburb of Rumaithiya in Kuwait. Additional samples will be collected to expand the analysis and their chemical compositions will be characterized by a combination of laboratory X-ray fluorescence (XRF), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and TIR emission spectroscopy. The overarching objective of this ongoing research is to both characterize the effects of mineral dust on climate as well as establish a predictive tool that can identify dust storm sources and potentially aid in establishing a more accurate prediction and warning system in the Middle East region.

Comparative analysis of GPS-derived TEC estimates and foF2 observations during storm conditions towards the expansion of ionospheric forecasting capabilities over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsagouri, Ioanna; Belehaki, Anna; Elias, Panagiotis

2017-04-01

This paper builts the discussion on the comparative analysis of the variations in the peak electron density at F2 layer and the TEC parameter during a significant number of geomagnetic storm events that occurred in the present solar cycle 24. The ionospheric disturbances are determined through the comparison of actual observations of the foF2 critical frequency and GPS-TEC estimates obtained over European locations with the corresponding median estimates, and they are analysed in conjunction to the solar wind conditions at L1 point that are monitored by the ACE spacecraft. The quantification of the storm impact on the TEC parameter in terms of possible limitations introduced by different TEC derivation methods is carefully addressed.The results reveal similarities and differences in the response of the two parameters with respect to the solar wind drivers of the storms, as well as the local time and the latitude of the observation point. The aforementioned dependences drive the storm-time forecasts of the SWIF model (Solar Wind driven autorgressive model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast), which is operationally implemented in the DIAS system (http://dias.space.noa.gr) and extensively tested in performance at several occassions. In its present version, the model provides alerts and warnings for upcoming ionospheric disturbances, as well as single site and regional forecasts of the foF2 characteristic over Europe up to 24 hours ahead based on the assesment of the solar wind conditions at ACE location. In that respect, the results obtained above support the upgrade of the SWIF's modeling technique in forecasting the storm-time TEC variation within an operational environment several hours in advance. Preliminary results on the evaluation of the model's efficiency in TEC prediction are also discussed, giving special attention in the assesment of the capabilities through the TEC-derivation uncertanties for future discussions.

The Electrostatic Environments of Mars: Atmospheric Discharges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calle, Carlos I.; Mackey, Paul J.; Johansen, Michael R.; Hogue, Michael D.; Phillips, James, III; Cox, Rachel E.

2016-01-01

The electrostatic environment on Mars is controlled by its ever present atmospheric dust. Dust devils and dust storms tribocharge this dust. Theoretical studies predict that lightning and/or glow discharges should be present on Mars, but none have been directly observed. Experiments are planned to shed light on this issue.

3 CFR 8523 - Proclamation 8523 of May 20, 2010. National Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2010

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... coastal and inland communities face the danger of these powerful storms. From high winds and storm surges... Preparedness Week, I urge individuals, families, communities, and businesses to take time to plan for the storm season before it begins. While hurricane forecasting has improved, storms may still develop with little...

An Israeli haboob: Sea breeze activating local anthropogenic dust sources in the Negev loess

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crouvi, Onn; Dayan, Uri; Amit, Rivka; Enzel, Yehouda

2017-02-01

Meso-scale weather systems, such as convective haboobs, are considered to be an important dust generation mechanism. In Israel, however, rather than of meso-scale weather systems, most dust storms are generated by synoptic-scale systems, originating from Sahara and Arabia. Consequently, only distal sources of suspended and deposited dust in Israel are currently reported. Here we report the first detailed study on the merging of synoptic- and meso-scale weather systems leading to a prominent dust outbreak over the Negev, Israel. During the afternoon of May 2nd, 2007, a massive dust storm covered the northern Negev, forming a one kilometer high wall of dust. The haboob was associated with PM10 concentrations of 1000-1500 μg m-3 that advanced at a speed of 10-15 m s-1 and caused temporary closure of local airports. In contrast to most reported haboobs, this one was generated by a sea breeze front acting as a weak cold front enhanced by a cold core cyclone positioned over Libya and Egypt. The sea breeze that brought cold and moist marine air acted as a gravity current with strong surface winds. The sources for the haboob were the loessial soils of the northwestern Negev, especially agricultural fields that were highly disturbed in late spring to early summer. Such surface disturbance is caused by agricultural and/or intensive grazing practices. Our study emphasizes the importance of local dust sources in the Negev and stresses loess recycling as an important process in contemporary dust storms over Israel.

A quantitative comparison of precipitation forecasts between the storm-scale numerical weather prediction model and auto-nowcast system in Jiangsu, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gaili; Yang, Ji; Wang, Dan; Liu, Liping

2016-11-01

Extrapolation techniques and storm-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are two primary approaches for short-term precipitation forecasts. The primary objective of this study is to verify precipitation forecasts and compare the performances of two nowcasting schemes: a Beijing Auto-Nowcast system (BJ-ANC) based on extrapolation techniques and a storm-scale NWP model called the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). The verification and comparison takes into account six heavy precipitation events that occurred in the summer of 2014 and 2015 in Jiangsu, China. The forecast performances of the two schemes were evaluated for the next 6 h at 1-h intervals using gridpoint-based measures of critical success index, bias, index of agreement, root mean square error, and using an object-based verification method called Structure-Amplitude-Location (SAL) score. Regarding gridpoint-based measures, BJ-ANC outperforms ARPS at first, but then the forecast accuracy decreases rapidly with lead time and performs worse than ARPS after 4-5 h of the initial forecast. Regarding the object-based verification method, most forecasts produced by BJ-ANC focus on the center of the diagram at the 1-h lead time and indicate high-quality forecasts. As the lead time increases, BJ-ANC overestimates precipitation amount and produces widespread precipitation, especially at a 6-h lead time. The ARPS model overestimates precipitation at all lead times, particularly at first.

2018 Giant Dust Storm on Mars

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-06-13

This set of images from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) shows a fierce, giant dust storm is kicking up on Mars, with rovers on the surface indicated as icons. The spread of the storm can be seen in the salmon-colored overlay. These images from MRO's Mars Color Imager start from May 31, when the dust event was first detected, and go through June 11, 2018. MRO creates global maps of Mars but roll maneuvers for targeted observations produce gaps in the coverage, which appear as black gores in the maps. On some days there are data drops where partial or full orbits of coverage are missing. Green and purple observed in the south polar region indicate saturated pixels. Latitude is indicated along the vertical axis. Longitude is indicated along the horizontal axis. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA22519

Development of a dust deposition forecast model for a mine tailings impoundment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stovern, Michael

Wind erosion, transport and deposition of particulate matter can have significant impacts on the environment. It is observed that about 40% of the global land area and 30% of the earth's population lives in semiarid environments which are especially susceptible to wind erosion and airborne transport of contaminants. With the increased desertification caused by land use changes, anthropogenic activities and projected climate change impacts windblown dust will likely become more significant. An important anthropogenic source of windblown dust in this region is associated with mining operations including tailings impoundments. Tailings are especially susceptible to erosion due to their fine grain composition, lack of vegetative coverage and high height compared to the surrounding topography. This study is focused on emissions, dispersion and deposition of windblown dust from the Iron King mine tailings in Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona, a Superfund site. The tailings impoundment is heavily contaminated with lead and arsenic and is located directly adjacent to the town of Dewey-Humboldt. The study includes in situ field measurements, computational fluid dynamic modeling and the development of a windblown dust deposition forecasting model that predicts deposition patterns of dust originating from the tailings impoundment. Two instrumented eddy flux towers were setup on the tailings impoundment to monitor the aeolian and meteorological conditions. The in situ observations were used in conjunction with a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model to simulate the transport of windblown dust from the mine tailings to the surrounding region. The CFD model simulations include gaseous plume dispersion to simulate the transport of the fine aerosols, while individual particle transport was used to track the trajectories of larger particles and to monitor their deposition locations. The CFD simulations were used to estimate deposition of tailings dust and identify topographic mechanisms that influence deposition. Simulation results indicated that particles preferentially deposit in regions of topographic upslope. In addition, turbulent wind fields enhanced deposition in the wake region downwind of the tailings. This study also describes a deposition forecasting model (DFM) that can be used to forecast the transport and deposition of windblown dust originating from a mine tailings impoundment. The DFM uses in situ observations from the tailings and theoretical simulations of aerosol transport to parameterize the model. The model was verified through the use of inverted-disc deposition samplers. The deposition forecasting model was initialized using data from an operational Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the forecast deposition patterns were compared to the inverted-disc samples through gravimetric, chemical composition and lead isotopic analysis. The DFM was verified over several month-long observing periods by comparing transects of arsenic and lead tracers measured by the samplers to the DFM PM27 forecast. Results from the sampling periods indicated that the DFM was able to accurately capture the regional deposition patterns of the tailings dust up to 1 km. Lead isotopes were used for source apportionment and showed spatial patterns consistent with the DFM and the observed weather conditions. By providing reasonably accurate estimates of contaminant deposition rates, the DFM can improve the assessment of human health impacts caused by windblown dust from the Iron King tailings impoundment.

National Severe Storms Forecast Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The principal mission of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is to maintain a continuous watch of weather developments that are capable of producing severe local storms, including tornadoes, and to prepare and issue messages designated as either Weather Outlooks or Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watches for dissemination to the public and aviation services. In addition to its assigned responsibility at the national level, the NSSFC is involved in a number of programs at the regional and local levels. Subsequent subsections and paragraphs describe the NSSFC, its users, inputs, outputs, interfaces, capabilities, workload, problem areas, and future plans in more detail.

Limited production of sulfate and nitrate on front-associated dust storm particles moving from desert to distant populated areas in northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feng; Zhang, Daizhou; Cao, Junji; Guo, Xiao; Xia, Yao; Zhang, Ting; Lu, Hui; Cheng, Yan

2017-12-01

Sulfate and nitrate compounds can greatly increase the hygroscopicity of mineral particles in the atmosphere and consequently alter the particles' physical and chemical properties. Their uptake on long-distance-transported Asian dust particles within mainland China has been reported to be substantial in previous studies, but the production was very inefficient in other studies. We compared these two salts in particles collected from a synoptic-scale, mid-latitude, cyclone-induced dust storm plume at the Tengger Desert (38.79° N, 105.38° E) and in particles collected in a postfrontal dust plume at an urban site in Xi'an (34.22° N, 108.87° E) when a front-associated dust storm from the Tengger Desert arrived there approximately 700 km downwind. The results showed that the sulfate concentration was not considerably different at the two sites, while the nitrate concentration was slightly larger at the urban site than that at the desert site. The estimated nitrate production rate was 4-5 ng µg-1 of mineral dust per day, which was much less than that in polluted urban air. The adiabatic process of the dust-loading air was suggested to be the reason for the absence of sulfate formation, and the uptake of background HNO3 was suggested to be the reason for the small nitrate production. According to our investigation of the published literature, the significant sulfate and nitrate in dust-storm-associated samples within the continental atmosphere reported in previous studies cannot be confirmed as actually produced on desert dust particles; the contribution from locally emitted and urban mineral particles or from soil-derived sulfate was likely substantial because the weather conditions in those studies indicated that the collection of the samples was started before dust arrival, or the air from which the samples were collected was a mixture of desert dust and locally emitted mineral particles. These results suggest that the production of nitrate and sulfate on dust particles following cold fronts is likely limited when the particles move from the desert to populated areas within the continent. For an accurate quantification of sulfate and nitrate formed on long-distance-transported desert dust particles at downwind populated areas in eastern China, dust collection efforts are indispensable to minimize any possible influence by locally emitted particles or at least to ensure that the samples are collected after dust arrival.

Investigation of optical and radiative properties of aerosols during an intense dust storm: A regional climate modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bran, Sherin Hassan; Jose, Subin; Srivastava, Rohit

2018-03-01

The dynamical and optical properties of aerosols during an intense dust storm event over the Arabian Sea have been studied using Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and space borne instruments such as MODIS, MISR, CALIPSO and CERES during the period 17 to 24 March, 2012. The model captures the spatio-temporal and vertical variations of meteorological and optical parameters, however an overestimation in simulated aerosol optical parameters are observed when compared to satellite retrievals. The correlation coefficients (R) between simulated and observed AOD from MODIS and MISR are found to be 0.54 and 0.32 respectively. Model simulated AOD on dusty days (20 and 21 March 2012) increased by 2-3 times compared to non-dusty days (17 and 24 March 2012) and the single scattering albedo (SSA) and the asymmetry parameter increased from 0.96 to 0.99 and from 0.56 to 0.66, respectively. The R between simulated shortwave (SW) radiation at top of the atmosphere (TOA) and TOA SW radiation obtained from CERES is found to be 0.43, however the model simulated SW radiation at the TOA showed an underestimation with respect to CERES. The shortwave aerosol radiative forcing (SWARF) during the event over surface and TOA are ∼ -19.3 and ∼ -14.2 Wm-2 respectively, which is about 2-5 times higher when compared to the respective forcing values during non-dust days. Estimated net radiative forcing was in the range of -13 to -21 Wm-2 at TOA and -12 to -20 Wm-2 at the surface. The heating rate during event days within the lower atmosphere near 850 hPa is found to 0.32 - 0.4 K day-1 and 0.18 - 0.22 K day-1 on dusty and non-dusty days, respectively. Results of this study may be useful for a better modeling of atmospheric aerosols and its optical and radiative properties over oceanic region.

I Got Them Dust Bowl Blues: Wind Erosion in the Music of the Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. A.

2017-12-01

This paper deals with the role of wind erosion and blowing dust on the music of the Dust Bowl region, a portion of the southern Great Plains of the United States. A defining characteristic of the region is dust storms, and in the 1930s, severe dust storms created dramatic images that came to symbolize all of the economic, social and environmental hardships suffered by the people during the 1930s. The music of the time, by Woody Guthrie and others, suggested that the region was being destroyed, never to recover. The region was resilient, however, and in recent decades, dust has been depicted in songs either as an adversity to be endured or simply as a normal part of life in the area. It may be that blowing dust has become a defining characteristic of the region because of a somewhat warped sense of pride in living in an often-difficult environment.

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.; Goodman, S. J.; Cecil, D. J.

2008-01-01

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

Correlation between Asian dust storms and worsening asthma in Western Japan.

PubMed

Watanabe, Masanari; Yamasaki, Akira; Burioka, Naoto; Kurai, Jun; Yoneda, Kazuhiko; Yoshida, Atsushi; Igishi, Tadashi; Fukuoka, Yasushi; Nakamoto, Masaki; Takeuchi, Hiromi; Suyama, Hisashi; Tatsukawa, Toshiyuki; Chikumi, Hiroki; Matsumoto, Shingo; Sako, Takanori; Hasegawa, Yasuyuki; Okazaki, Ryota; Horasaki, Kazunori; Shimizu, Eiji

2011-09-01

Severe wind storms during spring in East Asia, called Asian dust storms (ADS), have been assessed in the past for their effect on health in Asian countries. Our objective was to study the ADS association with asthma symptoms in adult patients in Japan. We designed a telephone survey to assess ADS influence on upper and lower respiratory, ocular and cutaneous symptoms in 98 patients with adult asthma from April to May 2007. Peak expiratory flow (PEF) was also measured from February to May. Worsening lower respiratory symptoms were noted by 22 of 98 patients during ADS in April, when Japanese cedar pollen levels also increased. During ADS in May, however, Japanese cedar and cypress pollen levels were not elevated, 11 patients had worsening of lower respiratory symptoms. None required emergency treatment for the exacerbation. Lower respiratory symptoms worsening most were cough and sputum; this was more common in patients with allergic rhinitis or atopy than in those without (P < 0.05). Min%Max differed significantly at 88.7 ± 6.6% during dust dispersion period, defined as the ADS day plus the next 6 days, versus 92.0 ± 5.3% during the 7-day period before a dust storm. We found that ADS aggravated lower respiratory symptoms in adult patients with asthma, but this influence was mild.

Automated Statistical Forecast Method to 36-48H ahead of Storm Wind and Dangerous Precipitation at the Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perekhodtseva, E. V.

2009-09-01

Development of successful method of forecast of storm winds, including squalls and tornadoes and heavy rainfalls, that often result in human and material losses, could allow one to take proper measures against destruction of buildings and to protect people. Well-in-advance successful forecast (from 12 hours to 48 hour) makes possible to reduce the losses. Prediction of the phenomena involved is a very difficult problem for synoptic till recently. The existing graphic and calculation methods still depend on subjective decision of an operator. Nowadays in Russia there is no hydrodynamic model for forecast of the maximal precipitation and wind velocity V> 25m/c, hence the main tools of objective forecast are statistical methods using the dependence of the phenomena involved on a number of atmospheric parameters (predictors). Statistical decisive rule of the alternative and probability forecast of these events was obtained in accordance with the concept of "perfect prognosis" using the data of objective analysis. For this purpose the different teaching samples of present and absent of this storm wind and rainfalls were automatically arranged that include the values of forty physically substantiated potential predictors. Then the empirical statistical method was used that involved diagonalization of the mean correlation matrix R of the predictors and extraction of diagonal blocks of strongly correlated predictors. Thus for these phenomena the most informative predictors were selected without loosing information. The statistical decisive rules for diagnosis and prognosis of the phenomena involved U(X) were calculated for choosing informative vector-predictor. We used the criterion of distance of Mahalanobis and criterion of minimum of entropy by Vapnik-Chervonenkis for the selection predictors. Successful development of hydrodynamic models for short-term forecast and improvement of 36-48h forecasts of pressure, temperature and others parameters allowed us to use the prognostic fields of those models for calculations of the discriminant functions in the nodes of the grid 150x150km and the values of probabilities P of dangerous wind and thus to get fully automated forecasts. In order to change to the alternative forecast the author proposes the empirical threshold values specified for this phenomenon and advance period 36 hours. In the accordance to the Pirsey-Obukhov criterion (T), the success of these automated statistical methods of forecast of squalls and tornadoes to 36 -48 hours ahead and heavy rainfalls in the warm season for the territory of Italy, Spain and Balkan countries is T = 1-a-b=0,54: 0,78 after author experiments. A lot of examples of very successful forecasts of summer storm wind and heavy rainfalls over the Italy and Spain territory are submitted at this report. The same decisive rules were applied to the forecast of these phenomena during cold period in this year too. This winter heavy snowfalls in Spain and in Italy and storm wind at this territory were observed very often. And our forecasts are successful.

The Evolution and Role of the Saharan Air Layer During Hurricane Helene (2006)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.; Sippel, Jason A.; Shie, Chung-Lin; Boller, Ryan A.

2013-01-01

The Saharan air layer (SAL) has received considerable attention in recent years as a potential negative influence on the formation and development of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Observations of substantial Saharan dust in the near environment of Hurricane Helene (2006) during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (AMMA) Experiment (NAMMA) field campaign led to suggestions about the suppressing influence of the SAL in this case. In this study, a suite of satellite remote sensing data, global meteorological analyses, and airborne data are used to characterize the evolution of the SAL in the environment of Helene and assess its possible impact on the intensity of the storm. The influence of the SAL on Helene appears to be limited to the earliest stages of development, although the magnitude of that impact is difficult to determine observationally. Saharan dust was observed on the periphery of the storm during the first two days of development after genesis when intensification was slow. Much of the dust was observed to move well westward of the storm thereafter, with little SAL air present during the remainder of the storm's lifetime and with the storm gradually becoming a category-3 strength storm four days later. Dry air observed to wrap around the periphery of Helene was diagnosed to be primarily non-Saharan in origin (the result of subsidence) and appeared to have little impact on storm intensity. The eventual weakening of the storm is suggested to result from an eyewall replacement cycle and substantial reduction of the sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane as its forward motion decreased.

Skill assessment of a real-time forecast system utilizing a coupled hydrologic and coastal hydrodynamic model during Hurricane Irene (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dresback, Kendra M.; Fleming, Jason G.; Blanton, Brian O.; Kaiser, Carola; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Tromble, Evan M.; Luettich, Richard A.; Kolar, Randall L.; Hong, Yang; Van Cooten, Suzanne; Vergara, Humberto J.; Flamig, Zac L.; Lander, Howard M.; Kelleher, Kevin E.; Nemunaitis-Monroe, Kodi L.

2013-12-01

Due to the devastating effects of recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico (e.g., Katrina, Rita, Ike and Gustav), the development of a high-resolution, real-time, total water level prototype system has been accelerated. The fully coupled model system that includes hydrology is an extension of the ADCIRC Surge Guidance System (ASGS), and will henceforth be referred to as ASGS-STORM (Scalable, Terrestrial, Ocean, River, Meteorological) to emphasize the major processes that are represented by the system.The ASGS-STORM system incorporates tides, waves, winds, rivers and surge to produce a total water level, which provides a holistic representation of coastal flooding. ASGS-STORM was rigorously tested during Hurricane Irene, which made landfall in late August 2011 in North Carolina. All results from ASGS-STORM for the advisories were produced in real-time, forced by forecast wind and pressure fields computed using a parametric tropical cyclone model, and made available via the web. Herein, a skill assessment, analyzing wind speed and direction, significant wave heights, and total water levels, is used to evaluate ASGS-STORM's performance during Irene for three advisories and the best track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). ASGS-STORM showed slight over-prediction for two advisories (Advisory 23 and 25) due to the over-estimation of the storm intensity. However, ASGS-STORM shows notable skill in capturing total water levels, wind speed and direction, and significant wave heights in North Carolina when utilizing Advisory 28, which had a slight shift in the track but provided a more accurate estimation of the storm intensity, along with the best track from the NHC. Results from ASGS-STORM have shown that as the forecast of the advisories improves, so does the accuracy of the models used in the study; therefore, accurate input from the weather forecast is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to ensure the accuracy of the guidance provided by the system. While Irene provided a real-time test of the viability of a total water level system, the relatively insignificant freshwater discharges precludes definitive conclusions about the role of freshwater discharges on total water levels in estuarine zones. Now that the system has been developed, on-going work will examine storms (e.g., Floyd) for which the freshwater discharge played a more meaningful role.

Assessing the Predictability of Convection using Ensemble Data Assimilation of Simulated Radar Observations in an LETKF system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Heiner; Craig, George

2014-05-01

This study uses the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to perform storm-scale Data Assimilation of simulated Doppler radar observations into the non-hydrostatic, convection-permitting COSMO model. In perfect model experiments (OSSEs), it is investigated how the limited predictability of convective storms affects precipitation forecasts. The study compares a fine analysis scheme with small RMS errors to a coarse scheme that allows for errors in position, shape and occurrence of storms in the ensemble. The coarse scheme uses superobservations, a coarser grid for analysis weights, a larger localization radius and larger observation error that allow a broadening of the Gaussian error statistics. Three hour forecasts of convective systems (with typical lifetimes exceeding 6 hours) from the detailed analyses of the fine scheme are found to be advantageous to those of the coarse scheme during the first 1-2 hours, with respect to the predicted storm positions. After 3 hours in the convective regime used here, the forecast quality of the two schemes appears indiscernible, judging by RMSE and verification methods for rain-fields and objects. It is concluded that, for operational assimilation systems, the analysis scheme might not necessarily need to be detailed to the grid scale of the model. Depending on the forecast lead time, and on the presence of orographic or synoptic forcing that enhance the predictability of storm occurrences, analyses from a coarser scheme might suffice.

Operational Dust Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benedetti, Angela; Baldasano, Jose M.; Basart, Sara; Benincasa, Francesco; Boucher, Olivier; Brooks, Malcolm E.; Chen, Jen-Ping; Colarco, Peter R.; Gong, Sunlin; Huneeus, Nicolas;

The Importance of Hurricane Research to Life, Property, the Economy, and National Security.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busalacchi, A. J.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has brought into stark relief how much hurricane forecasts have improved - and how important it is to make them even better. Whereas the error in 48-hour track forecasts has been reduced by more than half, according to the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasts remain challenging, especially with storms such as Harvey that strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in less than three days. The unusually active season, with Hurricane Irma sustaining 185-mph winds for a record 36 hours and two Atlantic hurricanes reaching 150-mph winds simultaneously for the first time, also highlighted what we do, and do not, know about how tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms. The extraordinary toll of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria - which may ultimately be responsible for hundreds of deaths and an estimated $200 billion or more in damages - underscores why investments into improved forecasting must be a national priority. At NCAR and UCAR, scientists are working with their colleagues at federal agencies, the private sector, and the university community to advance our understanding of these deadly storms. Among their many projects, NCAR researchers are making experimental tropical cyclone forecasts using an innovative Earth system model that allows for variable resolution. We are working with NOAA to issue flooding, inundation, and streamflow forecasts for areas hit by hurricanes, and we have used extremely high-resolution regional models to simulate successfully the rapid hurricane intensification that has proved so difficult to predict. We are assessing ways to better predict the damage potential of tropical cyclones by looking beyond wind speed to consider such important factors as the size and forward motion of the storm. On the important question of climate change, scientists have experimented with running coupled climate models at a high enough resolution to spin up a hurricane, and we have used a convection-permitting regional model to examine how named storms of the past might look if they were to formed in a warmer, wetter future. Finally, research is also being performed to better communicate forecasts to help residents make informed choices when a damaging storm approaches.

Sol 568 Dust Devil in Gusev, Unenhanced

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

This movie clip shows several dust devils moving from right to left across a plain inside Mars' Gusev Crater, as seen from the vantage point of NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Spirit in hills rising from the plain. The clip consists of frames taken by Spirit's navigation camera during the rover's 543rd martian day, or sol (July 13, 2005). Unlike some other movie clips of dust devils seen by Spirit, the images in this clip have not been processed to enhance contrast of the dust devils. The total time elapsed during the taking of these frames was 12 minutes, 17 seconds.

Spirit began seeing dust devil activity around the beginning of Mars' spring season. Activity increased as spring continued, but fell off again for about two weeks during a dust storm. As the dust storm faded away, dust devil activity came back. In the mid-afternoons as the summer solstice approached, dust devils were a very common occurrence on the floor of Gusev crater. The early-spring dust devils tended to move southwest-to-northeast, across the dust devil streaks in Gusev seen from orbit. Increasingly as the season progresses, the dust devils are seen moving northwest-to-southeast, in the same direction as the streaks. Scientists are watching for the big dust devils that leave those streaks.

Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsberry, Russell L.; Jordan, Mary S.; Vitart, Frederic

2010-05-01

The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10-30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECMWF 32-day forecasts made once a week from 5 June through 25 December 2008. Ensemble storms are defined by grouping ensemble member vortices whose positions are within a specified separation distance that is equal to 180 n mi at the initial forecast time t and increases linearly to 420 n mi at Day 14 and then is constant. The 12-h track segments are calculated with a Weighted-Mean Vector Motion technique in which the weighting factor is inversely proportional to the distance from the endpoint of the previous 12-h motion vector. Seventy-six percent of the ensemble storms had five or fewer member vortices. On average, the ensemble storms begin 2.5 days before the first entry of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track file, tend to translate too slowly in the deep tropics, and persist for longer periods over land. A strict objective matching technique with the JTWC storms is combined with a second subjective procedure that is then applied to identify nearby ensemble storms that would indicate a greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in that region with that track orientation. The ensemble storms identified in the ECMWF 32-day forecasts provided guidance on intraseasonal timescales of the formations and tracks of the three strongest typhoons and two other typhoons, but not for two early season typhoons and the late season Dolphin. Four strong tropical storms were predicted consistently over Week-1 through Week-4, as was one weak tropical storm. Two other weak tropical storms, three tropical cyclones that developed from precursor baroclinic systems, and three other tropical depressions were not predicted on intraseasonal timescales. At least for the strongest tropical cyclones during the peak season, the ECMWF 32-day ensemble provides guidance of formation and tracks on 10-30 day timescales.

Dust Storm Hits Canary Islands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

A thick pall of sand and dust blew out from the Sahara Desert over the Atlantic Ocean yesterday (January 6, 2002), engulfing the Canary Islands in what has become one of the worst sand storms ever recorded there. In this scene, notice how the dust appears particularly thick in the downwind wake of Tenerife, the largest of the Canary Islands. Perhaps the turbulence generated by the air currents flowing past the island's volcanic peaks is churning the dust back up into the atmosphere, rather than allowing it to settle toward the surface. This true-color image was captured by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite, on January 7, 2002. Image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC

The Pan-American Center for the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprigg, W. A.

2013-05-01

A World Meteorological Organization system has been established to coordinate knowledge, data, and information concerning airborne dust, the environmental conditions and storms that generate it, the consequences of it, and the means to mitigate and cope with it. Three nodes, or foci, of collaboration cover the globe: for Asia, administered from the China Meteorological Administration in Beijing; for Africa, Europe and the Middle East, administered from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center; and for Pan-America, administered from Chapman University in Orange, California. Pan-American Center priorities include understanding the sources of windblown dust and particulates, simulating and predicting dust events, and serving the health, safety and environmental communities that may benefit from the WMO system.

Mars low albedo regions: Possible map of near-surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huguenin, R. L.

1987-01-01

A freeze/thaw desorption mechanism is proposed in certain low albedo areas which could be the factor that instigated dust storms. It is widely accepted that the bulk of the episodic gas evolution (not necessarily the oxygen release) experienced during the humidification process in the Viking Gas Exhange Experiment (GEX) was caused by a familiar process in which more polar H2O molecules replace large quantities of other preadsorbed gas molecules on adsorption sites. The author suggests that a similar process could produce high pore pressures in soil that could disrupt the soil and eject dust at high velocity. The author also argued that association of sites of dust storms initiated with high thermal inertial areas may simply reflect repeated dust depletion.

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2005-01-01

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

The Effect of Asian Dust Aerosols on Cloud Properties and Radiative Forcing from MODIS and CERES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Jianping; Minnis, Patrick; Lin, Bing; Wang, Tianhe; Yi, Yuhong; Hu, Yongxiang; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Ayers, Kirk

2005-01-01

The effects of dust storms on cloud properties and radiative forcing are analyzed over northwestern China from April 2001 to June 2004 using data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on the Aqua and Terra satellites. On average, ice cloud effective particle diameter, optical depth and ice water path of the cirrus clouds under dust polluted conditions are 11%, 32.8%, and 42% less, respectively, than those derived from ice clouds in dust-free atmospheric environments. The humidity differences are larger in the dusty region than in the dust-free region, and may be caused by removal of moisture by wet dust precipitation. Due to changes in cloud microphysics, the instantaneous net radiative forcing is reduced from -71.2 W/m2 for dust contaminated clouds to -182.7 W/m2 for dust-free clouds. The reduced cooling effects of dusts may lead to a net warming of 1 W/m2, which, if confirmed, would be the strongest aerosol forcing during later winter and early spring dust storm seasons over the studied region.

Sahara Dust

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-15

article title:  Casting Light and Shadows on a Saharan Dust Storm     ... ocean and dust layer, which are visible in shades of blue and tan, respectively. In the lower panel, heights derived from automated ... cast by the cirrus clouds onto the dust (indicated by blue and cyan pixels) provide sufficient spatial contrast for a retrieval of ...

EXTREME DUST AND SMOKE EVENTS OVER THE U.S. IN 1998

EPA Science Inventory

Dust storms and forest fires are major PM events that occur several times a year over different parts of the US. Such events also originate outside the US, e.g., dust from Sahara and the Asian deserts and smoke from forest fires in Central America and Canada. Such dust and smok...

Field Observation of Heterogeneous Formation of Dicarboxylic acids, Keto-carboxylic acids, α-Dicarbonyls and Nitrate in Xi'an, China during Asian dust storm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Wang, J.; Ren, Y.; Li, J.

2015-12-01

To understand the formation mechanism of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) on dust surfaces, this study investigated the concentrations and compositions of dicarboxylic acids (C2-C11), keto-carboxylic acids (C3-C7), α-dicarbonyls and inorganic ions in size-segregated aerosols (9-stages) collected in Xi'an, China during the nondust storm and dust storm periods of 2009 and 2011. During the events the ambient particulate dicarboxylic acids were 932-2240 ng m-3, which are comparable and even higher than those in nondust periods. Molecular compositions of the above SOA are similar to those in nondust periods with oxalic acid being the leading species. In the presence of the dust storms, all the above mentioned SOA species in Xi'an were predominantly enriched on the coarse particles (>2.1μm), and oxalic acid well correlated with NO3- (R2=0.72, p<0.001) rather than SO42-.This phenomenon differs greatly from the SOA in any other nondust period that is characterized by an enrichment of oxalic acid in fine particles and a strong correlation of oxalic acid with SO42-. Our results further demonstrate that NO3- in the dust periods in Xi'an was mostly derived from secondary oxidation, whereas SO42- during the events was largely derived from surface soil of Gobi deserts. We propose a formation pathway to explain these observations, in which nitric acid and/or nitrogen oxides react with dust to produce Ca(NO3)2 and form a liquid phase on the surface of dust aerosols via water vapor-absorption of Ca(NO3)2, followed by a partitioning of the gas-phase water-soluble organic precursors (e.g.,glyoxal and methylglyoxal) into the aqueous-phase and a subsequent oxidation into oxalic acid. To the best of our knowledge, we found for the first time the enrichment of glyoxal and methylglyoxal on dust surface. Our data suggest an important role of nitrate in the heterogeneous formation process of SOA on the surface of Asian dust.

Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

2016-12-01

The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

THE PERFECT STORM

Science.gov Websites

Office Marine, Tropical, and Tsunami Services Branch Items of Interest Marine Forecasts Text, Graphic , Tropical, and Tsunami Services Branch, Items of Interest, Forecasts, Observations, Portals, Dissemination

Observed Changes at Viking Lander 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, H. J.

1985-01-01

A local dust storm raged in Chryse Planitia, Mars, in June 1981. The changes wrought in the vicinity of the lander (Mutch Memorial Station) by this storm sometime near Sol 1742 were partly described previously. Here, changes related to the storm are itemized, evidence for wind directions during the peak of the storm are cited, and two observations unrelated to the storm are noted. The observations suggest that the eroding winds of the Sol 1742 storm were more easterly (N. 35 deg to 90 deg E.) than those (N. 5 deg to 11 deg E.) that formed the large wind tails; and fragments in erosional residues are 0.7 cm and larger, but smaller ones may be present. Some fragments 0.4 to 0.5 cm and smaller were somehow removed, at least locally; wind speeds of the 1742 local storm were probably greater than those of a previous local dust storm (25 to 30 m/s) that occurred during the same season on Sol 423 because the earlier storm did not alter the surface; the major, if not entire, amount of erosion by the storm occurred between Sols 1728 and 1757; and erosion chiefly occurred where the surface configuration and material properties were altered by the lander and its sampler.

Satellite Observations of Aerosol Variations in the Central North Pacific Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-01

which wvere the Gobi desert dust storms and the eruption of Kilauea volcano . By cormparing shipboard and satellite data, satellite retrieval technique...the Gobi desert dust storms and the eruption of Kilauea volcano . By comparing shipboard and satellite data, satellite retrieval techniques were...0,125 The second major aerosol producing event is the eruption of the Kilauea vol- cano on the island of Hawaii (190 N, 1570 W). Debris from this

Dust Storm, Aral Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

The Aral Sea has shrunk to less than half its size since 1985. The Aral Sea receives little water (sometimes no water) from the two major rivers that empty into it-the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. Instead, the river water is diverted to support irrigation for the region's extensive cotton fields. Recently, water scarcity has increased due to a prolonged drought in Central Asia. As the Aral Sea recedes, its former sea bed is exposed. The Aral's sea bed is composed of fine sediments-including fertilizers and other agricultural chemicals-that are easily picked up by the region's strong winds, creating thick dust storms. The International Space Station crew observed and recorded a large dust storm blowing eastward from the Aral Sea in late June 2001. This image illustrates the strong coupling between human activities (water diversions and irrigation), and rapidly changing land, sea and atmospheric processes-the winds blow across the

Impacts of climate and synoptic fluctuations on dust storm activity over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namdari, Soodabeh; Karimi, Neamat; Sorooshian, Armin; Mohammadi, GholamHasan; Sehatkashani, Saviz

2018-01-01

Dust events in the Middle East are becoming more frequent and intense in recent years with impacts on air quality, climate, and public health. In this study, the relationship between dust, as determined from Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature, pressure and wind field) are examined using monthly data from 2000 to 2015 for desert areas in two areas, Iraq-Syria and Saudi Arabia. Bivariate regression analysis between monthly temperature data and AOD reveals a high correlation for Saudi Arabia (R = 0.72) and Iraq-Syria (R = 0.64). Although AOD and precipitation are correlated in February, March and April, the relationship is more pronounced on annual timescales. The opposite is true for the relationship between temperature and AOD, which is evident more clearly on monthly time scales, with the highest temperatures and AOD typically between August and September. Precipitation data suggest that long-term reductions in rainfall promoted lower soil moisture and vegetative cover, leading to more intense dust emissions. Superimposed on the latter effect are more short term variations in temperature exacerbating the influence on the dust storm genesis in hot periods such as the late warm season of the year. Case study analysis of March 2012 and March 2014 shows the impact of synoptic systems on dust emissions and transport in the study region. Dust storm activity was more intense in March 2012 as compared to March 2014 due to enhanced atmospheric turbulence intensifying surface winds.

Dust deposition and ambient PM10 concentration in northwest China: spatial and temporal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiao-Xiao; Sharratt, Brenton; Chen, Xi; Wang, Zi-Fa; Liu, Lian-You; Guo, Yu-Hong; Li, Jie; Chen, Huan-Sheng; Yang, Wen-Yi

2017-02-01

Eolian dust transport and deposition are important geophysical processes which influence global bio-geochemical cycles. Currently, reliable deposition data are scarce in central and east Asia. Located at the boundary of central and east Asia, Xinjiang Province of northwestern China has long played a strategic role in cultural and economic trade between Asia and Europe. In this paper, we investigated the spatial distribution and temporal variation in dust deposition and ambient PM10 (particulate matter in aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 µm) concentration from 2000 to 2013 in Xinjiang Province. This variation was assessed using environmental monitoring records from 14 stations in the province. Over the 14 years, annual average dust deposition across stations in the province ranged from 255.7 to 421.4 t km-2. Annual dust deposition was greater in southern Xinjiang (663.6 t km-2) than northern (147.8 t km-2) and eastern Xinjiang (194.9 t km-2). Annual average PM10 concentration across stations in the province varied from 100 to 196 µg m-3 and was 70, 115 and 239 µg m-3 in northern, eastern and southern Xinjiang, respectively. The highest annual dust deposition (1394.1 t km-2) and ambient PM10 concentration (352 µg m-3) were observed in Hotan, which is located in southern Xinjiang and at the southern boundary of the Taklamakan Desert. Dust deposition was more intense during the spring and summer than other seasons. PM10 was the main air pollutant that significantly influenced regional air quality. Annual average dust deposition increased logarithmically with ambient PM10 concentration (R2 ≥ 0.81). While the annual average dust storm frequency remained unchanged from 2000 to 2013, there was a positive relationship between dust storm days and dust deposition and PM10 concentration across stations. This study suggests that sand storms are a major factor affecting the temporal variability and spatial distribution of dust deposition in northwest China.

Thermal tides in the dusty martian atmosphere: a verification of theory.

PubMed

Zurek, R W; Leovy, C B

1981-07-24

Major features of the daily surface pressure oscillations observed by the Viking landers during the two great dust storms on Mars in 1977 can be explained in terms of the classical atmospheric tidal theory developed for the earth's atmosphere. The most dramatic exception is the virtual disappearance of only the diurnal tide at Viking Lander 1 just before the second storm. This disappearance is attributed to destructive interference between the usually westward-traveling tide and an eastward-traveling diurnal Kelvin mode generated by orographically induced differential heating. The continuing Viking Lander 1 pressure measurements can be used with the model to monitor future great dust storms.

Late-summer Martian Dust Storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

This is an image of Mars taken from orbit by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's Mars Color Imager (MARCI). The Red Planet's polar ice-cap is in the middle of the image. Captured in this image is a 37,000 square-kilometer (almost 23,000 miles) dust storm that moved counter-clockwise through the Phoenix landing site on Oct 11, 2008, or Sol 135 of the mission.

Viewing this image as if it were the face of a clock, Phoenix is shown as a small white dot, located at about 10 AM. The storm, which had already passed over the landing site earlier in the day, is located at about 9:30 AM.

The global dispersion of pathogenic microorganisms by dust storms and its relevance to agriculture: Chapter 1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonzalez-Martin, Cristina; Teigell-Perez, Nuria; Valladares, Basilio; Griffin, Dale W.

2014-01-01

Dust storms move an estimated 500–5000 Tg of soil through Earth’s atmosphere every year. Dust-storm transport of topsoils may have positive effects such as fertilization of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and the evolution of soils in proximal and distal environments. Negative effects may include the stripping of nutrient-rich topsoils from source regions, sandblasting of plant life in downwind environments, the fertilization of harmful algal blooms, and the transport of toxins (e.g., metals, pesticides, herbicides, etc.) and pathogenic microorganisms. With respect to the long-range dispersion of microorganisms and more specifically pathogens, research is just beginning to demonstrate the quantity and diversity of organisms that can survive this type of transport. Most studies to date have utilized different assays to identify microorganisms and microbial communities using predominately culture-based, and more recently nonculture-based, methodologies. There is a clear need for international-scale research efforts that apply standardized methods to advance this field of science. Here we present a review of dust-borne microorganisms with a focus on their relevance to agronomy.

Ionospheric Data Assimilation and Targeted Observation Strategies: Proof of Concept Analysis in a Geomagnetic Storm Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostelich, Eric; Durazo, Juan; Mahalov, Alex

2017-11-01

The dynamics of the ionosphere involve complex interactions between the atmosphere, solar wind, cosmic radiation, and Earth's magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms arising from solar activity can perturb these dynamics sufficiently to disrupt radio and satellite communications. Efforts to predict ``space weather,'' including ionospheric dynamics, require the development of a data assimilation system that combines observing systems with appropriate forecast models. This talk will outline a proof-of-concept targeted observation strategy, consisting of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, coupled with the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model, to select optimal locations where additional observations can be made to improve short-term ionospheric forecasts. Initial results using data and forecasts from the geomagnetic storm of 26-27 September 2011 will be described. Work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant Number FA9550-15-1-0096) and by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number DMS-0940314).

Dust Storm over the Middle East: Retrieval Approach, Source Identification, and Trend Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moridnejad, A.; Karimi, N.; Ariya, P. A.

2014-12-01

The Middle East region has been considered to be responsible for approximately 25% of the Earth's global emissions of dust particles. By developing Middle East Dust Index (MEDI) and applying to 70 dust storms characterized on MODIS images and occurred during the period between 2001 and 2012, we herein present a new high resolution mapping of major atmospheric dust source points participating in this region. To assist environmental managers and decision maker in taking proper and prioritized measures, we then categorize identified sources in terms of intensity based on extracted indices for Deep Blue algorithm and also utilize frequency of occurrence approach to find the sensitive sources. In next step, by implementing the spectral mixture analysis on the Landsat TM images (1984 and 2012), a novel desertification map will be presented. The aim is to understand how human perturbations and land-use change have influenced the dust storm points in the region. Preliminary results of this study indicate for the first time that c.a., 39 % of all detected source points are located in this newly anthropogenically desertified area. A large number of low frequency sources are located within or close to the newly desertified areas. These severely desertified regions require immediate concern at a global scale. During next 6 months, further research will be performed to confirm these preliminary results.

Realistic dust and water cycles in the MarsWRF GCM using coupled two-moment microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Christopher; Richardson, Mark Ian; Mischna, Michael A.; Newman, Claire E.

2017-10-01

Dust and water ice aerosols significantly complicate the Martian climate system because the evolution of the two aerosol fields is coupled through microphysics and because both aerosols strongly interact with visible and thermal radiation. The combination of strong forcing feedback and coupling has led to various problems in understanding and modeling of the Martian climate: in reconciling cloud abundances at different locations in the atmosphere, in generating a stable dust cycle, and in preventing numerical instability within models.Using a new microphysics model inside the MarsWRF GCM we show that fully coupled simulations produce more realistic simulation of the Martian climate system compared to a dry, dust only simulations. In the coupled simulations, interannual variability and intra-annual variability are increased, strong 'solstitial pause' features are produced in both winter high latitude regions, and dust storm seasons are more varied, with early southern summer (Ls 180) dust storms and/or more than one storm occurring in some seasons.A new microphysics scheme was developed as a part of this work and has been included in the MarsWRF model. The scheme uses split spectral/spatial size distribution numerics with adaptive bin sizes to track particle size evolution. Significantly, this scheme is highly accurate, numerically stable, and is capable of running with time steps commensurate with those of the parent atmospheric model.

Martian Dust Devils: 2 Mars Years of MGS MOC Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantor, B. A.; Edgett, K. S.

2002-12-01

Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) wide and narrow angle images have captured more than 1000 active dust devils over 2 Mars years. In the most recent Mars year, we repeatedly imaged (and are continuing to image) several areas to monitor dust devil occurrence. Some Mars dust devils are as small as a few to 10s of meters across, others are 100s of meters across and over 6 km high. Each Martian hemisphere has a "dust devil season" that generally follows the subsolar latitude. An exception is NW Amazonis, which has frequent, large dust devils throughout northern spring and summer (probably every afternoon; observations are acquired 2-3 times a week). The Amazonis and other MOC observations show no evidence that dust devils cause, lead to, or have a systematic relationship with dust storms. However, dust devils sometimes do occur near small, localized storms; and one specific relation occurred during the onset of the global dust events of 2001: slightly elevated levels of atmospheric dust (an optically thin cloud) triggered a very short period of dust devil activity in NW Amazonis in early northern autumn. The redistribution of dust by the 2001 global events may have also affected subsequent spring and summer dust devil activity in Hellas, where considerably fewer dust devils occurred in 2001-2002 than 1999-2000. In SW Syria, frequent, large dust devils occurred after the 2001 global events and persisted through southern summer. While dust devils have no specific relation to dust storms, they might play a role in the seasonal "wave of darkening" at middle and high latitudes by removing or disrupting thin veneers of dust. Dust devils have been observed to create thin, filamentary streaks. Some streaks are darker than their surroundings, while others are lighter. Some dust devils do not create streaks. At mid-latitudes, surfaces darken in spring as 100s of crisscrossing streaks form on widely-varied terrain. Some rare streaks exhibit cycloidal patterns similar to those created on Earth by tornadoes with multiple sub-vortices. The streaks occur at nearly all latitudes and elevations, from north polar dunes to the south polar layered terrain, from the summit of Olympus Mons to the floor of Hellas. During "dust devil season" at a given latitude, tremendous changes in streak patterns occur in periods as short as 1 month. These observations, along with repeated imaging in NW Amazonis and SW Syria, provide some idea of the frequency of dust devils. Uncertain is whether dust devils are responsible for all thin, filamentary streaks: while active vortices have been seen creating the plethora of streaks at southern mid-latitudes, none have been observed on the northern plains, despite observation of similar streak patterns. Perhaps northern plains dust devils occur at a different time of day relative to the MGS 1400 LT orbit, or perhaps dust devils did not form them. We monitored removal of dust from surfaces after the 2001 global dust events in several locations. Of particular interest was western Syrtis Major, which had brightened considerably after the 2001 storms. We observed this area for several months while very little change occurred. Finally, in January 2002, the surface was swept clean of most of its 2001 veneer of dust in a period of about 1 week. Dust devils played no role in this process; instead, regional surface winds were responsible.

Using Flow Charts to Visualize the Decision-Making Process in Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aung, M. T. Y.; Myat, T.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Ngwira, C.; Damas, M. C.

2016-12-01

Our society today relies heavily on technological systems such as satellites, navigation systems, power grids and aviation. These systems are very sensitive to space weather disturbances. When Earth-directed space weather driven by the Sun arrives at the Earth, it causes changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. Strong disturbances in the magnetosphere of the Earth are responsible for geomagnetic storms that can last from hours to days depending on strength of storms. Geomagnetic storms can severely impact critical infrastructure on Earth, such as the electric power grid, and Solar Energetic Particles that can endanger life in outer space. How can we lessen these adverse effects? They can be lessened through the early warning signals sent by space weather forecasters before CME or high-speed stream arrives. A space weather forecaster's duty is to send predicted notifications to high-tech industries and NASA missions so that they could take extra measures for protection. NASA space weather forecasters make prediction decisions by following certain steps and processes from the time an event occurs at the sun all the way to the impact locations. However, there has never been a tool that helps these forecasters visualize the decision process until now. A flow chart is created to help forecasters visualize the decision process. This flow chart provides basic knowledge of space weather and can be used to train future space weather forecasters. It also helps to cut down the training period and increase consistency in forecasting. The flow chart is also a great reference for people who are already familiar with space weather.

3 CFR 8830 - Proclamation 8830 of May 25, 2012. National Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2012

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... damage from storm surges, flooding, high winds, and tornadoes. During National Hurricane Preparedness... prepare before storms strike. With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center, we continue to advance accurate tropical storm forecasting that gives individuals more...

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2006-01-01

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Use of dust storm observations on satellite images to identify areas vulnerable to severe wind erosion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breed, C.S.; McCauley, J.F.

1986-01-01

Blowing dust is symptomatic of severe wind erosion and deterioration of soils in areas undergoing dessication and/or devegetation. Dust plumes on satellite images can commonly be traced to sources in marginally arable semiarid areas where protective lag gravels or vegetation have been removed and soils are dry, as demonstrated for the Portales Valley, New Mexico. Images from Landsat and manned orbiters such as Skylab and the Space Shuttle are useful for illustrating the regional relations of airborne dust plumes to source areas. Geostationary satellites such as GOES are useful in tracking the time-histories of episodic dust storms. These events sometimes go unrecognized by weather observers and are the precursors of long-term land degradation trends. In areas where soil maps and meteorological data are inadequate, satellite images provide a means for identifying problem areas where measures are needed to control or mitigate wind erosion. ?? 1986 D. Reidel Publishing Company.

Difference in the wind speeds required for initiation versus continuation of sand transport on mars: implications for dunes and dust storms.

PubMed

Kok, Jasper F

2010-02-19

Much of the surface of Mars is covered by dunes, ripples, and other features formed by the blowing of sand by wind, known as saltation. In addition, saltation loads the atmosphere with dust aerosols, which dominate the Martian climate. We show here that saltation can be maintained on Mars by wind speeds an order of magnitude less than required to initiate it. We further show that this hysteresis effect causes saltation to occur for much lower wind speeds than previously thought. These findings have important implications for the formation of dust storms, sand dunes, and ripples on Mars.

The Residual South Polar Cap of Mars: Stable or Transitory?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glenar, David A.; Bonev, B. P.; Hansen, G. B.; James, P. B.; Bjorkman, J. E.

2006-09-01

It remains uncertain whether the CO2 residual south polar cap (RSPC) is a permanent feature of the present Mars climate, or whether it occasionally sublimes completely during years marked by dramatic dust storm activity. While there is no firm evidence for complete disappearance of the cap in the past, observations show that the residual cap lost significant CO2 material in the spring / summer season prior to the Mariner 9 encounter. On the other hand, little interannual change has been observed in the RSPC during the MGS mission [1], despite the massive early-spring dust storm which occurred in 2001. We discuss whether a global dust storm beginning near perihelion could enhance the net CO2 sublimation sufficiently to completely remove the RSPC. We utilize a surface-plus-aerosol radiative transfer model under conditions of both modest and heavy atmospheric dust loading. The sublimination behavior depends critically on the extended (visible to thermal IR) albedo spectrum of the polar CO2 ice, which we have strongly constrained [2] from a combination of HST photometric imaging, ground based near-IR imaging spectroscopy and spectroscopic measurements by the Mars Express PFS. The extension of the cap spectrum to thermal IR wavelengths was accomplished by forward modeling using a semi-infinite grid of scattering grains. Results of this analysis depend on the strength of possible feedback mechanisms (increased surface dust content; exposure of water ice) as well as on the possibility of dust confinement by the polar vortex; but the general conclusion is that it would require multiple, intense dust storms in a given year in order to completely remove the CO2 ice veneer layer. This work has been supported by the NASA Planetary Astronomy and Mars Data Analysis Programs. [1] Benson and James, Icarus 174, 513, 2005; [2] Bonev et al., Planet Space Sci. 2006 (accepted).

View of a dust storm taken from Atlantis during STS-106

NASA Image and Video Library

2000-09-11

STS106-718-056 (11 September 2000) --- One of the STS-106 crew members on board the Space Shuttle Atlantis used a handheld 70mm camera to photograph this image of Afghanistan dust/front winds in the upper Amu Darya Valley. The strong winds along the northern border of Afghanistan lofted thick, light brown dust into the air (top half of the view). In this desert environment land surfaces are not protected by vegetation from the effect of blowing wind. The central Asian deserts experience the greatest number of dust storm days on the planet each year. The sharp dust front shows that the dust has not traveled far, but has been raised from the surfaces in the view. Dust is entrained in the atmosphere by horizontal winds but also by vertical movements. Here the vertical component is indicated by the fact that the higher points along the dust front are each topped by a small cumulus cloud, which appear as a line of small white puffballs. Cumulus clouds indicate upward motion and here the air which has entrained the dust is lifting the air above to the level of condensation at each point where a small cloud has formed.

The Electrostatic Environments of Mars and the Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calle, Carlos I.

2011-01-01

The electrical activity present in the environment near the surfaces of Mars and the moon has very different origins and presents a challenge to manned and robotic planetary exploration missions. Mars is covered with a layer of dust that has been redistributed throughout the entire planet by global dust storms. Dust, levitated by these storms as well as by the frequent dust devils, is expected to be electrostatically charged due to the multiple grain collisions in the dust-laden atmosphere. Dust covering the surface of the moon is expected to be electrostatically charged due to the solar wind, cosmic rays, and the solar radiation itself through the photoelectric effect. Electrostatically charged dust has a large tendency to adhere to surfaces. NASA's Mars exploration rovers have shown that atmospheric dust falling on solar panels can decrease their efficiency to the point of rendering the rover unusable. And as the Apollo missions to the moon showed, lunar dust adhesion can hinder manned and unmanned lunar exploration activities. Taking advantage of the electrical activity on both planetary system bodies, dust removal technologies are now being developed that use electrostatic and dielectrophoretic forces to produce controlled dust motion. This paper presents a short review of the theoretical and semiempirical models that have been developed for the lunar and Martian electrical environments.

Degradation of Organics in a Glow Discharge Under Martian Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hintze, P. E.; Calle, L. M.; Calle, C. I.; Buhler, C. R.; Trigwell, S.; Starnes, J. W.; Schuerger, A. C.

2006-01-01

The primary objective of this project is to understand the consequences of glow electrical discharges on the chemistry and biology of Mars. The possibility was raised some time ago that the absence of organic material and carbonaceous matter in the Martian soil samples studied by the VikinG Landers might be due in part to an intrinsic atmospheric mechanism such as glow discharge. The high probability for dust interactions during Martian dust storms and dust devils, combined with the cold, dry climate of Mars most likely results in airborne dust that is highly charged. Such high electrostatic potentials generated during dust storms on Earth are not permitted in the low-pressure CO2 environment on Mars; therefore electrostatic energy released in the form of glow discharges is a highly likely phenomenon. Since glow discharge methods are used for cleaning and sterilizing surfaces throughout industry, the idea that dust in the Martian atmosphere undergoes a cleaning action many times over geologic time scales appears to be a plausible one.

Investigation of dust formations in the atmosphere on the basis of satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanchik, M. V.; Kliushnikov, S. I.; Krovotyntsev, V. A.; Serebrennikov, A. N.

1984-06-01

A method for the computer processing of space photographs is described which makes it possible to determine dust formations in the atmosphere. Dust formations are identified according to the character of contrast-density distribution. Processed images are compared with actinometric data collected in a dust storm area (Conakry, Guinea, May 1983).

Forecast model applications of retrieved three dimensional liquid water fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raymond, William H.; Olson, William S.

1990-01-01

Forecasts are made for tropical storm Emily using heating rates derived from the SSM/I physical retrievals described in chapters 2 and 3. Average values of the latent heating rates from the convective and stratiform cloud simulations, used in the physical retrieval, are obtained for individual 1.1 km thick vertical layers. Then, the layer-mean latent heating rates are regressed against the slant path-integrated liquid and ice precipitation water contents to determine the best fit two parameter regression coefficients for each layer. The regression formulae and retrieved precipitation water contents are utilized to infer the vertical distribution of heating rates for forecast model applications. In the forecast model, diabatic temperature contributions are calculated and used in a diabatic initialization, or in a diabatic initialization combined with a diabatic forcing procedure. Our forecasts show that the time needed to spin-up precipitation processes in tropical storm Emily is greatly accelerated through the application of the data.

NASA Launches NOAA Weather Satellite to Improve Forecasts

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-11-18

Early on the morning of Saturday, Nov. 18, NASA successfully launched for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the first in a series of four advanced polar-orbiting satellites, equipped with next-generation technology and designed to improve the accuracy of U.S. weather forecasts out to seven days. The Joint Polar Satellite System-1 (JPSS-1) lifted off on a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base on California’s central coast. JPSS-1 data will improve weather forecasting and help agencies involved with post-storm recovery by visualizing storm damage and the geographic extent of power outages.

Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols in the World's Megacities and Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Singh, R.; El-Askary, H.; Qu, J.

2005-12-01

The world's megacities are the sites of production of a variety of aerosols and are themselves affected by natural and human-induced aerosols. In particular, sources of aerosols impacting cities include: industrial and automobile emission; sand and dust storms from, e.g., the Sahara and Gobi Deserts; as well as fire-induced aerosols. Improving the ability of various stakeholder organizations to respond effectively to high concentrations of aerosols, with special emphasis on mineral dust from dust storms; smoke from controlled burns, wild fires and agricultural burning; and anthropogenic aerosols, would be an important goal not just to understand climate forcings but also to be able to better respond to the increasing amounts of aerosols at global and regional levels. Cities and surrounding areas are affected without good estimates of the current and future conditions of the aerosols and their impact on regional and global climate. Remotely sensed (RS) NASA, NOAA and international platform data can be used to characterize the properties of aerosol clouds and special hazard events such as sand and dust storms (SDS). Aerosol analysis and prediction-model capabilities from which stakeholders can choose the tools that best match their needs and technological expertise are important. Scientists validating mesoscale and aerosol-transport models, aerosol retrievals from satellite measurements are indispensable for robust climate predictions. Here we give two examples of generic SDS cases and urban pollution and their possible impact on climate: The Sahara desert is a major source of dust aerosols dust transport is an important climatic process. The aerosols in the form of dust particles reflect the incoming solar radiation to space, thereby reducing the amount of radiation available to the ground, known as `direct' radiative forcing of aerosols. The aerosols also change the cloud albedo and microphysical properties of clouds, known as `indirect' radiative forcing of aerosols. The highest boundary layer heights are associated with regions where the sensible heat flux is greatest, and latent heat flux is smallest due to lack of vegetation. Boundary layer heights in the deserts may be systematically higher than the slightly wetter regions at the edges of deserts. Latent heat flux model runs and MODIS observations of dust storms affecting the Nile Delta and Cairo indicate strong influence on the local weather and climate forcings. In the Indo-Gangetic, during the pre-monsoon period, dust storms form. We have examined SDS transport using RS data acquired from NASA's MODIS MISR instruments and from sun photometer measurements. The aerosol optical depth and size of the dust particles are found to be significantly higher during such dust storm events. Moreover, our results clearly show that power plants in this region are the key point source of air pollutants. The detailed analysis of aerosol parameters show the existence of absorbing and non-absorbing aerosols emitted from these plants. The combined effects of urban aerosols with dust aerosols in India and Cairo not only affect megacities, they also have long-term climate impacts. We will also discuss how the assimilation of RS data into mesoscale models can improve these models and predictability of hazards and effects on megacities, such as SDS events, and forest fires, all sources of aerosols. Therefore RS data can improve the prediction of climate forcings by aerosols.

High Proportions of Sub-micron Particulate Matter in Icelandic Dust Storms in 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagsson Waldhauserova, Pavla; Arnalds, Olafur; Olafsson, Haraldur; Magnusdottir, Agnes

2017-04-01

Iceland is extremely active dust region and desert areas of over 44,000 km2 acknowledge Iceland as the largest Arctic and European desert. Frequent dust events, up to 135 dust days annually, transport dust particles far distances towards the Arctic and Europe. Satellite MODIS pictures have revealed dust plumes exceeding 1,000 km. The annual dust deposition was calculated as 40.1 million tons yr-1. Two dust storms were measured in transverse horizontal profile about 90 km far from different dust sources in southwestern Iceland in the summer of 2015. Aerosol monitor DustTrak DRX 8533EP was used to measure PM mass concentrations corresponding to PM1, PM2.5, PM4, PM10 and the total PM15 at several places within the dust plume. Images from camera network operated by the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration were used to estimate the visibility and spatial extent of measured dust events. A numerical simulation of surface winds was carried out with the numerical model HIRLAM with horizontal resolution of 5 km and used to calculate the total dust flux from the sources. The in situ measurements inside the dust plumes showed that aeolian dust can be very fine. The study highlights that suspended volcanic dust in Iceland causes air pollution with extremely high PM1 concentrations comparable to the polluted urban stations in Europe or Asia rather than reported dust event observations from around the world. The PM1/PM2.5 ratios are generally low during dust storms outside of Iceland, much lower than > 0.9 and PM1/PM10 ratios of 0.34-0.63 found in our study. It shows that Icelandic volcanic dust consists of higher proportion of submicron particles compared to crustal dust. The submicron particles are predicted to travel long distances. Moreover, such submicron particles pose considerable health risk because of high potential for entering the lungs. Icelandic volcanic glass has often fine pipe-vesicular structures known from asbestos and high content of heavy metals. Previous in situ measurements at the dust source in 2013 revealed extremely high number concentrations of submicron particles, specifically in the size range 0.3-0.337 μm. The PM2.5/PM10 ratios of mass concentrations seem to be lower at the dust sources that in some distance from the sources as measured in 2015. Common dust storms in Iceland are of several hundred thousand tons of magnitude from relatively well defined main dust sources. Numerical simulations were used calculate the total dust flux from the sources as 180,000 - 280,000 tons in this study. The mean PM1 (PM10) concentrations inside of the dust plumes varied from 97 to 241 µg m-3 (PM10 = 158 to 583 µg m-3). The extent of moderate dust events was calculated as 2.450 km2 to 4.220 km2 of the land area suggesting the regional scale of the events. Dust plumes reported here passed the most densely inhabited areas of Iceland, health risk warnings for the general public were, however, not issued. The data provided stresses the need for such warning system and is an important step towards its development.

Emission, transport, and radiative effects of mineral dust from the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts: comparison of measurements and model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Siyu; Huang, Jianping; Kang, Litai; Wang, Hao; Ma, Xiaojun; He, Yongli; Yuan, Tiangang; Yang, Ben; Huang, Zhongwei; Zhang, Guolong

2017-02-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF-Chem model) was used to investigate a typical dust storm event that occurred from 18 to 23 March 2010 and swept across almost all of China, Japan, and Korea. The spatial and temporal variations in dust aerosols and the meteorological conditions over East Asia were well reproduced by the WRF-Chem model. The simulation results were used to further investigate the details of processes related to dust emission, long-range transport, and radiative effects of dust aerosols over the Taklimakan Desert (TD) and Gobi Desert (GD). The results indicated that weather conditions, topography, and surface types in dust source regions may influence dust emission, uplift height, and transport at the regional scale. The GD was located in the warm zone in advance of the cold front in this case. Rapidly warming surface temperatures and cold air advection at high levels caused strong instability in the atmosphere, which strengthened the downward momentum transported from the middle and low troposphere and caused strong surface winds. Moreover, the GD is located in a relatively flat, high-altitude region influenced by the confluence of the northern and southern westerly jets. Therefore, the GD dust particles were easily lofted to 4 km and were the primary contributor to the dust concentration over East Asia. In the dust budget analysis, the dust emission flux over the TD was 27.2 ± 4.1 µg m-2 s-1, which was similar to that over the GD (29 ± 3.6 µg m-2 s-1). However, the transport contribution of the TD dust (up to 0.8 ton d-1) to the dust sink was much smaller than that of the GD dust (up to 3.7 ton d-1) because of the complex terrain and the prevailing wind in the TD. Notably, a small amount of the TD dust (PM2.5 dust concentration of approximately 8.7 µg m-3) was lofted to above 5 km and transported over greater distances under the influence of the westerly jets. Moreover, the direct radiative forcing induced by dust was estimated to be -3 and -7 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere, -8 and -10 W m-2 at the surface, and +5 and +3 W m-2 in the atmosphere over the TD and GD, respectively. This study provides confidence for further understanding the climate effects of the GD dust.

Emergency Hospital Visits in Association with Volcanic Ash, Dust Storms and Other Sources of Ambient Particles: A Time-Series Study in Reykjavík, Iceland

PubMed Central

Carlsen, Hanne Krage; Gislason, Thorarinn; Forsberg, Bertil; Meister, Kadri; Thorsteinsson, Throstur; Jóhannsson, Thorsteinn; Finnbjornsdottir, Ragnhildur; Oudin, Anna

2015-01-01

Volcanic ash contributed significantly to particulate matter (PM) in Iceland following the eruptions in Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grímsvötn 2011. This study aimed to investigate the association between different PM sources and emergency hospital visits for cardiorespiratory causes from 2007 to 2012. Indicators of PM10 sources; “volcanic ash”, “dust storms”, or “other sources” (traffic, fireworks, and re-suspension) on days when PM10 exceeded the daily air quality guideline value of 50 µg/m3 were entered into generalized additive models, adjusted for weather, time trend and co-pollutants. The average number of daily emergency hospital visits was 10.5. PM10 exceeded the air quality guideline value 115 out of 2191 days; 20 days due to volcanic ash, 14 due to dust storms (two days had both dust storm and ash contribution) and 83 due to other sources. High PM10 levels from volcanic ash tended to be significantly associated with the emergency hospital visits; estimates ranged from 4.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.6, 9.2%) per day of exposure in unadjusted models to 7.3% (95% CI: −0.4, 15.5%) in adjusted models. Dust storms were not consistently associated with daily emergency hospital visits and other sources tended to show a negative association. We found some evidence indicating that volcanic ash particles were more harmful than particles from other sources, but the results were inconclusive and should be interpreted with caution. PMID:25872017

Spatial and temporal distributions of Martian north polar cold spots before, during, and after the global dust storm of 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cornwall, C.; Titus, T.N.

2009-01-01

In the 1970s, Mariner and Viking observed features in the Mars northern polar region that were a few hundred kilometers in diameter with 20 fj,m brightness temperatures as low as 130 K (considerably below C02 ice sublimation temperatures). Over the past decade, studies have shown that these areas (commonly called "cold spots") are usually due to emissivity effects of frost deposits and occasionally to active C02 snowstorms. Three Mars years of Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer data were used to observe autumn and wintertime cold spot activity within the polar regions. Many cold spots formed on or near scarps of the perennial cap, probably induced by adiabatic cooling due to orographic lifting. These topographically associated cold spots were often smaller than those that were not associated with topography. We determined that initial grain sizes within the cold spots were on the order of a few millimeters, assuming the snow was uncontaminated by dust or water ice. On average, the half-life of the cold spots was 5 Julian days. The Mars global dust storm in 2001 significantly affected cold spot activity in the north polar region. Though overall perennial cap cold spot activity seemed unaffected, the distribution of cold spots did change by a decrease in the number of topographically associated cold spots and an increase in those not associated with topography. We propose that the global dust storm affected the processes that form cold spots and discuss how the global dust storm may have affected these processes. ?? 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Carl

2010-01-01

Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance.

Contrasting environments associated with storm prediction center tornado outbreak forecasts using synoptic-scale composite analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, Alyssa Victoria

Tornado outbreaks have significant human impact, so it is imperative forecasts of these phenomena are accurate. As a synoptic setup lays the foundation for a forecast, synoptic-scale aspects of Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outbreak forecasts of varying accuracy were assessed. The percentages of the number of tornado outbreaks within SPC 10% tornado probability polygons were calculated. False alarm events were separately considered. The outbreaks were separated into quartiles using a point-in-polygon algorithm. Statistical composite fields were created to represent the synoptic conditions of these groups and facilitate comparison. Overall, temperature advection had the greatest differences between the groups. Additionally, there were significant differences in the jet streak strengths and amounts of vertical wind shear. The events forecasted with low accuracy consisted of the weakest synoptic-scale setups. These results suggest it is possible that events with weak synoptic setups should be regarded as areas of concern by tornado outbreak forecasters.

Trans-Pacific yellow sand transport observed in April 1998: A numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uno, Itsushi; Amano, Hiroyasu; Emori, Seita; Kinoshita, Kisei; Matsui, Ichiro; Sugimoto, Nobuo

2001-08-01

A yellow sand transport episode from the Asian continent to Japan and North America which occurred in April 1998 is simulated. A new on-line dust tracer model coupled with a regional-scale meteorological model is developed and applied to this dust storm episode. The results for two large dust events that started during April 14-15 and 19-20, 1998, have been analyzed and discussed. The first dust storm was trapped in a cutoff vortex developed over the China plain. A modeled 3-D structure of dust associated with this cutoff vortex agreed with an observed time-height cross section of dust concentration. Results show that the strong subsidence at the backside of the vortex restricted the dust layer below 3 km level. Model analysis revealed that the second dust event that started during April 19-20 over inland China was the origin of a dust episode reported over North America. The trans-Pacific dust transport simulation successfully showed the dust onset near the West Coast of North America. Elevation of the dust layer during the long-range transport was below 3 km. The model is extended to include the transport of an Asian origin anthropogenic tracer over the North Pacific Rim. Both the natural-origin mineral dust and the Asian-origin anthropogenic tracer are simultaneously transported even if their emission regions are different.

System designed for issuing landslide alerts in the San Francisco Bay area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finley, D.

1987-01-01

A system for forecasting landslides during major storms has been developed for the San Francisco Bay area by the U.S Geological Survey and was successfully tested during heavy storms in the bay area during February 1986. Based on the forecasts provided by the USGS, the National Weather Service (NWS) included landslide warnings in its regular weather forecasts or in special weather statements transmitted to local radio and television stations and other news media. USGS scientists said the landslide forecasting and warning system for the San Francisco Bay area can be used as a prototype in developing similar systems for other parts of the Nation susceptible to landsliding. Studies show damage from landslides in the United States averages an estimated $1.5 billion per year. 

Hydrodaynamic - Statistical Forecast Method To 36-48h Ahead Of Storm Wind And Tornadoes Over The Territory Of Europe And Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perekhodtseva, Elvira V.

2010-05-01

Development of successful method of forecast of storm winds, including squalls and tornadoes, that often result in human and material losses, could allow one to take proper measures against destruction of buildings and to protect people. Well-in-advance successful forecast (from 12 hours to 48 hour) makes possible to reduce the losses. Prediction of the phenomena involved is a very difficult problem for synoptic till recently. The existing graphic and calculation methods still depend on subjective decision of an operator. Nowadays in Russia there is no hydrodynamic model for forecast of the maximal wind velocity V> 25m/c, hence the main tools of objective forecast are statistical methods using the dependence of the phenomena involved on a number of atmospheric parameters (predictors). . Statistical decisive rule of the alternative and probability forecast of these events was obtained in accordance with the concept of "perfect prognosis" using the data of objective analysis. For this purpose the different teaching samples of present and absent of this storm wind and rainfalls were automatically arranged that include the values of forty physically substantiated potential predictors. Then the empirical statistical method was used that involved diagonalization of the mean correlation matrix R of the predictors and extraction of diagonal blocks of strongly correlated predictors. Thus for these phenomena the most informative predictors were selected without loosing information. The statistical decisive rules for diagnosis and prognosis of the phenomena involved U(X) were calculated for choosing informative vector-predictor. We used the criterion of distance of Mahalanobis and criterion of minimum of entropy by Vapnik-Chervonenkis for the selection predictors. Successful development of hydrodynamic models for short-term forecast and improvement of 36-48h forecasts of pressure, temperature and others parameters allowed us to use the prognostic fields of those models for calculations of the discriminant functions in the nodes of the grid 75x75km and the values of probabilities P of dangerous wind and thus to get fully automated forecasts. . In order to apply the alternative forecast to European part of Russia and Europe the author proposes the empirical threshold values specified for this phenomenon and advance period 36 hours. According to the Pirsey-Obukhov criterion (T), the success of this hydrometeorological-statistical method of forecast of storm wind and tornadoes to 36 -48 hours ahead in the warm season for the territory of Europe part of Russia and Siberia is T = 1-a-b=0,54-0,78 after independent and author experiments during the period 2004-2009 years. A lot of examples of very successful forecasts are submitted at this report for the territory of Europe and Russia. The same decisive rules were applied to the forecast of these phenomena during cold period in 2009-2010 years too. On the first month of 2010 a lot of cases of storm wind with heavy snowfall were observed and were forecasting over the territory of France, Italy and Germany.

Effect of Asian dust storms on mortality in three Asian cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyewon; Honda, Yasushi; Lim, Youn-Hee; Guo, Yue Leon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kim, Ho

2014-06-01

Asian dust storms (ADS) have affected several Asian countries and have been a major concern due to adverse effects on public health. The occurrence of ADS differs in each country based on geographical features and distance from the storms' origin. Many studies have reported significant associations between ADS and morbidity. However, regarding the association between ADS and mortality, only a few studies have found statistically significant ADS effects in Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Accordingly, this study aimed to examine the effects of ADS on daily mortality in three Asian cities (Seoul, South Korea; Taipei, Taiwan; and Kitakyushu, Japan) and to explore the differences in the extent of effects in each city. We performed time-series analyses using a generalized additive model (GAM) with Quasi-Poisson regressions. Deaths due to accidents or external causes were excluded. We used a dummy variable as an indicator of ADS and considered lag effects of ADS. Stratified analyses by disease and age and sensitivity analyses controlling for NO2, SO2, and PM10 were also conducted respectively. Additionally, influenza epidemics were adjusted for considering seasonal patterns, and a meta-analysis was performed. We reported results as excess mortality by percentage due to Asian dust storms. We found significant excess mortality in Seoul and Kitakyushu as follows. In Seoul, ADS showed adverse effects on mortality under 65 years old (lag 2: 4.44%, lag 3: 5%, lag 4: 4.39%). In Kitakyushu, ADS had adverse effects on respiratory mortality (lag 2: 18.82%). Contradictory to results in Seoul and Kitakyushu, ADS seemed to have a protective effect in Taipei: total non-accidental mortality (lag 0: -2.77%, lag 1: -3.24%), mortality over 65 years old (lag 0: -3.35%, lag 1: -3.29%) and respiratory mortality (lag 0: -10.62%, lag 1: -9.67%). Sensitivity analyses showed similar findings as the main results. Our findings suggest that ADS may affect mortality in several Asian cities, and that a dust storm warning system could help protect people from dust storms.

An Approach to Remove the Systematic Bias from the Storm Surge forecasts in the Venice Lagoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canestrelli, A.

2017-12-01

In this work a novel approach is proposed for removing the systematic bias from the storm surge forecast computed by a two-dimensional shallow-water model. The model covers both the Adriatic and Mediterranean seas and provides the forecast at the entrance of the Venice Lagoon. The wind drag coefficient at the water-air interface is treated as a calibration parameter, with a different value for each range of wind velocities and wind directions. This sums up to a total of 16-64 parameters to be calibrated, depending on the chosen resolution. The best set of parameters is determined by means of an optimization procedure, which minimizes the RMS error between measured and modeled water level in Venice for the period 2011-2015. It is shown that a bias is present, for which the peaks of wind velocities provided by the weather forecast are largely underestimated, and that the calibration procedure removes this bias. When the calibrated model is used to reproduce events not included in the calibration dataset, the forecast error is strongly reduced, thus confirming the quality of our procedure. The proposed approach it is not site-specific and could be applied to different situations, such as storm surges caused by intense hurricanes.

Solar-Terrestrial Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, R. J.; Cole, D. G.; Wilkinson, P. J.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D.

1990-11-01

Volume 1: The following subject areas are covered: the magnetosphere environment; forecasting magnetically quiet periods; radiation hazards to human in deep space (a summary with special reference to large solar particle events); solar proton events (review and status); problems of the physics of solar-terrestrial interactions; prediction of solar proton fluxes from x-ray signatures; rhythms in solar activity and the prediction of episodes of large flares; the role of persistence in the 24-hour flare forecast; on the relationship between the observed sunspot number and the number of solar flares; the latitudinal distribution of coronal holes and geomagnetic storms due to coronal holes; and the signatures of flares in the interplanetary medium at 1 AU. Volume 2: The following subject areas were covered: a probability forecast for geomagnetic activity; cost recovery in solar-terrestrial predictions; magnetospheric specification and forecasting models; a geomagnetic forecast and monitoring system for power system operation; some aspects of predicting magnetospheric storms; some similarities in ionospheric disturbance characteristics in equatorial, mid-latitude, and sub-auroral regions; ionospheric support for low-VHF radio transmission; a new approach to prediction of ionospheric storms; a comparison of the total electron content of the ionosphere around L=4 at low sunspot numbers with the IRI model; the French ionospheric radio propagation predictions; behavior of the F2 layer at mid-latitudes; and the design of modern ionosondes.

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system simulations will help to develop a seamless integration with the boundary systems in the service-gap area with new insights into our scientific understanding of such complex systems. A visualization system is being developed to allow stake holders and the community to have access to the flood forecasting for their region with sufficient lead time.

Planetary Research Center. [astronomical photography of planetary surfaces and atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baum, W. A.; Millis, R. L.; Bowell, E. L. G.

1974-01-01

Extensive Earth-based photography of Mars, Jupiter, and Venus is presented which monitors the atmospheric and/or surface changes that take place day to day. Color pictures are included of the 1973 dust storm on Mars, showing the daily cycle of the storm's regeneration. Martian topography, and the progress of the storm is examined. Areas most affected by the storm are summarized.

Water Vapor Reaches Mars' Middle Atmosphere During Global Dust Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-01-23

Rising air during a 2007 global dust storm on Mars lofted water vapor into the planet's middle atmosphere, researchers learned from data graphed here, derived from observations by the Mars Climate Sounder instrument on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. The two vertical black lines in the right half of the graph (at about 260 and 310 on the horizontal scale) mark the beginning and end of the most recent global dust storm on Mars, which burst from regional scale to globe-encircling scale in July 2007. The presence of more colored dots, particularly green ones, in the upper portion of the graph between those lines, compared to the upper portion of the graph outside those lines, documents the uplift of water vapor in connection with the global dust storm. The vertical scale is altitude, labeled at left in kilometers above the surface of Mars (50 kilometers is about 30 miles; 80 kilometers is about 50 miles). The color bar below the graph gives the key to how much water vapor each dot represents, in parts per million, by volume, in Mars' atmosphere. Note that green to yellow represents about 100 times as much water as purple does. The horizontal axis of the graph is time, from January 2006 to February 2008. It is labeled with numbers representing the 360 degrees of Mars' orbit around the Sun, from zero to 360 degrees and then further on to include the first 30 degrees of the following Martian year. (The zero point is autumnal equinox -- end of summer -- in Mars' northern hemisphere.) This graph, based on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter observations, was used in a January 2018 paper in Nature Astronomy by Nicholas Heavens of Hampton University in Hampton, Virginia, and co-authors. The paper presents Martian dust storms' uplifting effect on water vapor as a factor in seasonal patterns that other spacecraft have detected in the rate of hydrogen escaping from the top of Mars' atmosphere. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA22080

The effects of dust storms on quality of life of allergic patients with or without asthma.

PubMed

Soy, Fatih Kemal; Yazıcı, Haşmet; Kulduk, Erkan; Dündar, Rıza; Gülen, Şule Taş; Doğan, Sedat; Can, İlknur Haberal

2016-01-01

This study aims to investigate the quality of life of allergic patients with or without asthma during dust storms. A total of 148 allergic patients (66 males, 82 females; mean age 35.7±15.5 years; range 18 to 65 years) were classified as those with (group 1, n=80) or without (group 2, n=68) concomitant asthma between January 2012 and January 2013. The quality of life [Short Form-36 (SF-36)] scores, Rhinoconjunctivitis Quality of Life Questionnaire (RQLQ), nasal symptom and visual analog scale (VAS) scores at the time of diagnosis were obtained. The particulate matter (PM10) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) values of that day from the General Directorate of Meteorology were recorded. The day of dust storm and PM10 and SO2 measurements along with SF-36, RQLQ, nasal symptom and VAS scores were recorded again. The absolute change in the RQLQ subparameters including eye and nasal symptoms, practical problems and global scores was statistically significant (p=0.022, p=0.036, p=0.026 and p=0.032, respectively). There were statistically significant changes in the SF-36 subgroups of general health, physical functioning, vitality, and mental health (p=0.026, p=0.042, p=0.008 and p=0.026, respectively). In the multivariate logistic regression model, specific and general quality of life was 4.6 times worse in RQLQ and 3.8 times in SF-36 after the dust storm in patients with asthma, while 2.1 times worse in RQLQ and 1.9 times in SF-36 in patients with pure allergic rhinitis. The attributable risk of asthma was found to be 2.5 times higher in RQLQ and 1.9 times higher in SF-36. Dust storms may deteriorate the quality of life of patients with allergic rhinitis and asthma and lead to related personal and societal problems.

Simulations of Hurricane Nadine (2012) during HS3 Using the NASA Unified WRF with Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics-Radiation Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, J. J.; Braun, S. A.; Sippel, J. A.; Tao, W. K.; Tao, Z.

2014-12-01

The impact of the SAL on the development and intensification of hurricanes has garnered significant attention in recent years. Many past studies have shown that synoptic outbreaks of Saharan dust, which usually occur from late spring to early fall and can extend from western Africa across the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean, can have impacts on hurricane genesis and subsequent intensity change. The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission is a multiyear NASA field campaign with the goal of improving understanding of hurricane formation and intensity change. One of HS3's primary science goals is to obtain measurements to help determine the extent to which the Saharan air layer impacts storm intensification. HS3 uses two of NASA's unmanned Global Hawk aircrafts equipped with three instruments each to measure characteristics of the storm environment and inner core. The Goddard microphysics and longwave/shortwave schemes in the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model have been coupled in real-time with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model in WRF-Chem to account for the direct (radiation) and indirect (microphysics) impact. NU-WRF with interactive aerosol-cloud-radiation physics is used to generate 30-member ensemble simulations of Nadine (2012) with and without the aerosol interactions. Preliminary conclusions related to the impact of the SAL on the evolution of Nadine from the HS3 observations and model output will be described.

Coupling the Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Investigating the Role of Clouds in Controlling the Vertical Distribution of Dust During N. H. Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Wilson, R. J.

2014-01-01

The dust cycle is critically important for the current climate of Mars. The radiative effects of dust impact the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere (Gierasch and Goody, 1968; Haberle et al., 1982; Zurek et al., 1992). Although dust is present in the Martian atmosphere throughout the year, the level of dustiness varies with season. The atmosphere is generally the dustiest during northern fall and winter and the least dusty during northern spring and summer (Smith, 2004). Dust particles are lifted into the atmosphere by dust storms that range in size from meters to thousands of kilometers across (Cantor et al., 2001). During some years, regional storms combine to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by as much as 40 K (Smith et al., 2002). Key recent observations of the vertical distribution of dust indicate that elevated layers of dust exist in the tropics and sub-tropics throughout much of the year (Heavens et al., 2011). These observations have brought particular focus on the processes that control the vertical distribution of dust in the Martian atmosphere. The goal of this work is to further our understanding of how clouds in particular control the vertical distribution of dust, particularly during N. H. spring and summer

Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

2013-12-01

Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space weather and this influences our forecasts. In this presentation, I will discuss the unique challenges that space weather forecasters face when explaining what we know and what we don't know about space weather events to customers and policy makers.

Concentration, solubility and deposition flux of atmospheric particulate nutrients over the Yellow Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jin-Hui; Zhang, Jing; Gao, Hui-Wang; Tan, Sai-Chun; Yao, Xiao-Hong; Ren, Jing-Ling

2013-12-01

Satellite images showed that two large dust storms swept over the Yellow Sea from 31 Mach to 1 April 2007; both were accompanied by precipitation. Three to four days after the dust episodes, blooms occurred in the Yellow Sea. As an important and potential controlling factor of the bloom, nutrients in the total suspended particle (TSP) and size-segregated particle samples during the cruise campaign were measured and their atmospheric deposition fluxes of nutrients are reported in this paper. Concentrations of total P and TIN (NH4+, NO2- and NO3-) in TSP varied from 0.01 to 1.05 μg m-3, and from 1.21 to 22.28 μg m-3, with the maximum occurring concurrently with the dust storm events. In addition, the measured solubility of Fe in these particles varied from 1.0 to 20.1%, while it ranged from 0.8 to 15% for Al. The total deposition fluxes of Asian dust as well as the contained nutrients were estimated on the basis of an episodic increment of the measured concentration of dissolved Al in the surface ocean during the dust events. The estimated fluxes of atmospheric deposition of soluble Fe, P and inorganic nitrogen over the Yellow Sea during the dust episodes were 42.5±10.9, 10.3±2.6 and 772.0±198.0 mg m-2, respectively. The estimated fluxes of nutrients via dry atmospheric deposition accounted for only ~2% of the total fluxes. The deposition fluxes of particulate Fe and P during the two dust storm events associated with precipitation were about 500-1000 times of that daily averaged flux during non-dust days, indicating the importance of the episodic inputs to the annual budget of these metals deposited into the ocean.

Long-range Transport of Asian Dust Storms: A Satellite/Surface Perspective on Societal and Scientific Influence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

Among the many components contributing to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative forcing effect on the weather/climate system. As much as one-third to half of the global dust emissions, estimated about 800 Tg, are introduced annually into Earth's atmosphere from various deserts in China. Asian dust storm outbreaks are believed to have persisted for hundreds and thousands years over the vast territory of north and northwest China, but not until recent decades that many studies reveal the compelling evidence in recognizing the importance of these eolian dust particles for forming Chinese Loess Plateau and for biogeochemical cycling in the North Pacific Ocean to as far as in the Greenland ice-sheets through long-range transport. The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites and its evolution monitored by satellite and surface network. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm, called Deep Blue, to retrieve aerosol properties, particularly but not limited to, over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Recently, many field campaigns were designed and executed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. We will provide an overview of the outbreak of Asian dust storms, near source/sink and their evolution along transport pathway, from space and surface observations. The climatic effects and societal impacts of the Asian dusts will be addressed in depth. (to be presented in the International Workshop on Semi-Arid Land Surface-

The 2011 October Draconids outburst - I. Orbital elements, meteoroid fluxes and 21P/Giacobini-Zinner delivered mass to Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo-Rodríguez, Josep M.; Madiedo, José M.; Williams, I. P.; Dergham, Joan; Cortés, Jordi; Castro-Tirado, Alberto J.; Ortiz, José L.; Zamorano, Jaime; Ocaña, Francisco; Izquierdo, Jaime; Sánchez de Miguel, Alejandro; Alonso-Azcárate, Jacinto; Rodríguez, Diego; Tapia, Mar; Pujols, Pep; Lacruz, Juan; Pruneda, Francesc; Oliva, Armand; Pastor Erades, Juan; Francisco Marín, Antonio

2013-07-01

On 2011 October 8, the Earth crossed the dust trails left by comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner during its 19th and 20th century perihelion approaches with the comet being close to perihelion. The geometric circumstances of that encounter were thus favourable to produce a meteor storm, but the trails were much older than in the 1933 and 1946 historical encounters. As a consequence the 2011 October Draconid display exhibited several activity peaks with Zenithal Hourly Rates of about 400 meteors h-1. In fact, if the display had not been forecasted, it could have passed almost unnoticed as was strongly attenuated for visual observers due to the Moon. This suggests that most meteor storms of a similar nature could have passed historically unnoticed under unfavourable weather and Moon observing conditions. The possibility of obtaining information on the physical properties of cometary meteoroids penetrating the atmosphere under low geocentric velocity encounter circumstances motivated us to set up a special observing campaign. Added to the Spanish Fireball Network wide-field all-sky and CCD video monitoring, other high-sensitivity 1/2 arcsec black and white CCD video cameras were attached to the modified medium-field lenses for obtaining high-resolution orbital information. The trajectory, radiant and orbital data of October 16 Draconid meteors observed at multiple stations are presented. The results show that the meteors appeared from a geocentric radiant located at α = 263.0 ± 0.4° and δ = +55.3 ± 0.3° that is in close agreement with the radiant predicted for the 1873-1894 and the 1900 dust trails. The estimated mass of material from 21P/Giacobini-Zinner delivered to Earth during the 6 h outburst was around 950 ± 150 kg.

Biological effects of desert dust in respiratory epithelial cells and a murine model.

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract As a result of the challenge of recent dust storms to public health, we tested the postulate that desert dust collected in the southwestern United States could impact a biological effect in respiratory epithelial cells and an animal model. Two samples of surface sedime...

Analysis of the Impact of Major Dust Events on the Aerosols Characteristics over Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, Ashraf; El-Askary, Hesham; Al-Shaibani, Abdulaziz; Hariri, Mustafa M.

2015-04-01

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a major source of atmospheric dust. Frequent dust storms blow up and significantly affect human activities, airports and citizens' health. Aerosols optical and physical characteristics are influenced by major dust storms outbreaks. In this, paper, ground based AERONET measurements are integrated with space-borne sensors, namely MODIS and CALIPSO to analyze aerosols' characteristics during March - May of 2009 where a massive dust storm blew up and caused a widespread heavy atmospheric dust load over Saudi Arabia and the same period during 2010, where less dust activities were reported. The MODIS Deep Blue AOD analysis showed similar aerosols pattern over the land, however a substantial variance in aerosol loading during March - May 2009 compared with the same period in 2010 was observed. The angstrom exponent analysis showed that the majority of aerosol measurements in 2009 and 2010 are dominated by coarse-mode particles with angstrom exponent < 0.5. Detailed analysis of aerosol optical properties shows significant influence of coarse mode particles in the enhanced aerosol loading in 2009. The volume depolarization rations (VDR) derived from CALIPSO backscattering measurements is used to find latitudinal profile of mean aerosol optical depth to indicate the type of particles and to discriminate spherical aerosols with non-spherical particles. Acknowledgement The authors would like to acknowledge the support provided by the King Abdel Aziz City for Science & Technology (KACST) for funding this work under grant No. (MT-32-76). The support provided by the Deanship of Research at King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals (KFUPM) is gratefully acknowledged.

Experimental Constraints On Transparency of The 1052;1040;rtian Atmosphere Out of Dust Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korablev, O.; Moroz, V. I.; Rodin, A. V.

In the absence of a dust storm so-called permanent dust haze with = 0.2 in the atmo- sphere of Mars determines its thermal structure, as it has been shown by Gierasch and Goody [1972 JAS 29, 400] and is confirmed by modern Mars GCMs that include dust cycle. Dust loading varies substantially with the season and geographic location, and only the data of mapping instruments are adequate to characterize it. Presently, these are the data of thermal IR instruments, benefiting from being insensitive to condensa- tional clouds: TES/MGS and IRTM/Viking. In calm atmospheric conditions (aphelion season) a typical value of 9-µm optical depth 9 of 0.05-0.15 is observed by these instruments [Smith et al. 2000, 2001 JGR 105, 9539; JGR 106, 23929; Martin and Richardson 1993 JGR 98, 10941]. In order to quantify the typical optical depth of the permanent dust haze, we will discuss, among others, the following two questions: 1) How to agree the above values and reliable measurements from the surface (VL, Pathfinder) which give the typical optical depth (out of dust storms) of = 0.5 from one side, and some ground-based observations (in UV-visible range) that frequently reveal < 0.02 on the other side. 2) What is the relationship between 9 and the visi- ble optical depth? Comparison of IRTM and VL measurements (the only simultaneous observations available so far) suggest vis/9 = 2.5, that contradict to vis/9 = 0.9 that follow from IRIS/Mariner 9 mineralogy model, which is confirmed by recent re- analysis of IRIS data.

Observation of a Dust Storm during 2015 Spring over Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Y.; Li, D.; Li, Z.; Chen, X.; Xu, H.; Liu, Z.; Qie, L.; Zhang, Y.; Li, K.; Ma, Y.

2015-12-01

Dust events bring significant impacts on the regional environment, human health and even climate. There are four major dust explosion areas in the world, such as North America, Australia, Central Asia and Middle East. Located in the Central Asia, North China has a severe desertification because of deforestation and excessive population growth. Beijing is at the fork of three dust transmission paths in Chin, which makes it a dust-prone region for a long history especially in spring. Thanks to the improvement of the ecological environment in Mongolia, the number of dust weather in recent years reduced significantly than before. However, as the spring coming earlier for the relatively high temperature, a severe dust weather process happened suddenly on March 28, 2015 following with the long-term hazy weather, which up to the highest intensity in the nearly two years. A set of ground-based observations for this serious dust event were adopted in this paper. The ground-based remote sensing station is equipped with an automatic CIMEL lidar and an AERONET sun-photometer. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol size distribution were measured by sun-photometer. AOD of dust reached 2.0 at 532nm, which was much larger than clear days. And there was an obvious trend that coarse mode increases more significantly and quickly than fine mode when a dust storm occurs. At the same time, data provided by the air quality monitoring and analysis platform of China shown that the PM10 concentration was larger than 1000μg/m3 and PM10 made important contribution to the high AQI. Lidar observation clearly shown the dust spread very tall (higher than 1km) when the dust storm occurrence. After the dust dissipating, the planetary boundary layer roughly from 0 to 3km, aerosol has a very widely vertical distribution. The AOD based on sun-photometer were taken as a constraint, 65 sr were retrieved and analyzed. And the extinction coefficients indicated that the dust had been dissipation near the ground, while some dissolved into the upper air (2-3km) after the dust passed over. Backward trajectory analysis showed those dust was originating from Mongolia (northwest of Beijing). According to the air quality index data, the dust transmission path could be Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shandong-Jiangsu. And then it deposited at Taizhou in Jiangsu province.

Atmospheric particles retrieval using satellite remote sensing: Applications for sandstorms and volcanic clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Yingxin

This thesis is concerned with atmospheric particles produced by sandstorms and volcanic eruptions. Three studies were conducted in order to examine particle retrieval methodology, and apply these towards an improved understanding of large-scale sandstorms. A thermal infrared remote sensing retrieval method developed by Wen and Rose [1994], which retrieves particle sizes, optical depth, and total masses of silicate particles in the volcanic cloud, was applied to an April 07, 2001 sandstorm over northern China, using MODIS. Results indicate that the area of the dust cloud observed was 1.34 million km2, the mean particle radius of the dust was 1.44 mum, and the mean optical depth at 11 mum was 0.79. The mean burden of dust was approximately 4.8 tons/km2 and the main portion of the dust storm on April 07, 2001 contained 6.5 million tons of dust. The results are supported by both independent remote sensing data (TOMS) and in-situ data for a similar event in 1998, therefore suggesting that the technique is appropriate for quantitative analysis of silicate dust clouds. This is the first quantitative evaluation of annual and seasonal dust loading in 2003 produced by Saharan dust storms by satellite remote sensing analysis. The retrieved mean particle effective radii of 2003 dust events are between 1.7--2.6 mum which is small enough to be inhaled and is hazardous to human health. The retrieved yearly dust mass load is 658--690 Tg, which is ˜45% of the annual global mineral dust production. Winter is the heaviest dust loading season in the year 2003, which is more than 5 times larger than that in the summer season in 2003.The mean optical depths at 11 mum in the winter season (around 0.7) are higher than those in the summer season (around 0.5). The results could help both meteorologists and environmental scientists to evaluate and predict the hazard degree caused by Saharan dust storms. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Development of a severe local storm prediction system: A 60-day test of a mesoscale primitive equation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paine, D. A.; Zack, J. W.; Kaplan, M. L.

1979-01-01

The progress and problems associated with the dynamical forecast system which was developed to predict severe storms are examined. The meteorological problem of severe convective storm forecasting is reviewed. The cascade hypothesis which forms the theoretical core of the nested grid dynamical numerical modelling system is described. The dynamical and numerical structure of the model used during the 1978 test period is presented and a preliminary description of a proposed multigrid system for future experiments and tests is provided. Six cases from the spring of 1978 are discussed to illustrate the model's performance and its problems. Potential solutions to the problems are examined.

Satellites see major winter storm marching toward the U.S. East Coast

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA and NOAA satellites are providing various views of the major winter storm marching toward the U.S. East coast on March 13. The storm is forecast to merge with another system and is expected to bring large snowfall totals from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. NASA's Aqua satellite gathered infrared data from the storm system and the area ahead of the storm for cloud and ground temperatures. NOAA's GOES-East satellite provided visible and infrared imagery that showed the extent and the movement of the system. Forecasters at the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center (WPC) noted that the low pressure system crossing the Midwest states and Ohio Valley is expected to merge with another low off the southeast U.S. coast. WPC stated "This will allow for a strong nor'easter to develop near the coast and cause a late-season snowstorm from the central Appalachians to New England, including many of the big cities in the Northeast U.S." Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

Prediction of Winter Storm Tracks and Intensities Using the GFDL fvGFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, S.; Boaggio, K.; Marchok, T.; Morin, M.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

The GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical core (FV3) is coupled to a modified version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics and initial conditions, to form the fvGFS model. This model is similar to the one being implemented as the next-generation operational weather model for the NWS, which is also FV3-powered. Much work has been done to verify fvGFS tropical cyclone prediction, but little has been done to verify winter storm prediction. These costly and dangerous storms impact parts of the U.S. every year. To verify winter storms we ran the NCEP operational cyclone tracker, developed at GFDL, on semi-real-time 13 km horizontal resolution fvGFS forecasts. We have found that fvGFS compares well to the operational GFS in storm track and intensity, though often predicts slightly higher intensities. This presentation will show the track and intensity verification from the past two winter seasons and explore possible reasons for bias.

Trichothecene mycotoxins and their determinants in settled dust related to grain production.

PubMed

Nordby, Karl-Christian; Halstensen, Anne Straumfors; Elen, Oleif; Clasen, Per-Erik; Langseth, Wenche; Kristensen, Petter; Eduard, Wijnand

2004-01-01

We hypothesise that inhalant exposure to mycotoxins causes developmental outcomes and certain hormone-related cancers that are associated with grain farming in an epidemiological study. The aim of the present study was to identify and validate determinants of measured trichothecene mycotoxins in grain dust as work environmental trichothecene exposure indicators. Settled grain dust was collected in 92 Norwegian farms during seasons of 1999 and 2000. Production characteristics and climatic data were studied as determinants of trichothecenes in settled dust samples obtained during the production of barley (N = 59), oats (N = 32), and spring wheat (N = 13). Median concentrations of trichothecenes in grain dust were <20, 54, and < 50 mg/kg (ranges < 20-340, < 30-2400, and < 50-1200) for deoxynivalenol (DON), HT-2 toxin (HT-2) and T-2 toxin (T-2) respectively. Late blight potato rot (fungal) forecasts have been broadcast in Norway to help prevent this potato disease. Fungal forecasts representing wet, temperate, and humid meteorological conditions were identified as strong determinants of trichothecene mycotoxins in settled grain dust in this study. Differences in cereal species, production properties and districts contributed less to explain mycotoxin concentrations. Fungal forecasts are validated as indicators of mycotoxin exposure of grain farmers and their use in epidemiological studies may be warranted.

Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

2017-04-01

Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is configured to take advantage of far-field information on developing tidal surges provided by tide gauges in NW Scotland (the 'external surge'), supported by observations of wind and atmospheric pressure and the predicted astronomical tide at Immingham. Missing data can cause problems with ANN models and a novel aspect of our implementation is the use of multiple redundant inputs (nearby tide gauges that experience a high degree of surge coherence) to synthesise a single external surge input. A similar approach is taken with meteorological forcings, creating an ANN that is resilient against data drop-outs within its input vector. The ANN generates 6 to 24 hour surge forecasts at Immingham with accuracy better than the present UK Storm Tide Warning Service. These can be used to cross-check national forecasts, generate more accurate estimates of likely flood depths, timings and durations and trigger planned responses to severe forecasts. Crucially, this capability can be 'owned' by the port operator, which encourages the development of a shared understanding of storm surge hazards and the challenges of port resilience planning between scientist and stakeholder.

Solar-Terrestrial Predictions: Proceedings of a workshop. Volume 2: Geomagnetic and space environment papers and ionosphere papers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, R. J.; Cole, D. G.; Wilkinson, P. J.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D.

1990-11-01

The following subject areas were covered: a probability forecast for geomagnetic activity; cost recovery in solar-terrestrial predictions; magnetospheric specification and forecasting models; a geomagnetic forecast and monitoring system for power system operation; some aspects of predicting magnetospheric storms; some similarities in ionospheric disturbance characteristics in equatorial, mid-latitude, and sub-auroral regions; ionospheric support for low-VHF radio transmission; a new approach to prediction of ionospheric storms; a comparison of the total electron content of the ionosphere around L=4 at low sunspot numbers with the IRI model; the French ionospheric radio propagation predictions; behavior of the F2 layer at mid-latitudes; and the design of modern ionosondes.

Improvements of Storm Surge Modelling in the Gulf of Venice with Satellite Data: The ESA Due Esurge-Venice Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Biasio, F.; Bajo, M.; Vignudelli, S.; Papa, A.; della Valle, A.; Umgiesser, G.; Donlon, C.; Zecchetto, S.

2016-08-01

Among the most detrimental natural phenomena, storm surges heavily endanger the environment, the economy and the everyday life of sea-side countries and coastal zones. Considering that 120.000.000 people live in the Mediterranean area, with additional 200.000.000 presences in Summer for tourism purposes, the correct prediction of storm surges is crucial to avoid fatalities and economic losses. Earth Observation (EO) can play an important role in operational storm surge forecasting, yet it is not widely diffused in the storm surge community. In 2011 the European Space Agency (ESA), through its Data User Element (DUE) programme, financed two projects aimed at encouraging the uptake of EO data in this sector: eSurge and eSurge-Venice (eSV). The former was intended to address the issues of a wider users' community, while the latter was focused on a restricted geographical area: the northern Adriatic Sea and the Gulf of Venice. Among the objectives of the two projects there were a number of storm surge hindcast experiments using satellite data, to demonstrate the improvements on the surge forecast brought by EO. We report here the results of the hindcast experiments of the eSV project. They were aimed to test the sensitivity of a storm surge model to a forcing wind field modified with scatterometer data in order to reduce the bias between simulated and observed winds. Hindcast experiments were also performed to test the response of the storm surge model to the assimilation, with a dual 4D-Var system, of satellite altimetry observations as model errors of the initial state of the sea surface level. Remarkable improvements on the storm surge forecast have been obtained for what concerns the modified model wind forcing. Encouraging results have been obtained also in the assimilation experiments.

Regional and climatic controls on seasonal dust deposition in the southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reheis, M.C.; Urban, F.E.

2011-01-01

Vertical dust deposition rates (dust flux) are a complex response to the interaction of seasonal precipitation, wind, changes in plant cover and land use, dust source type, and local vs. distant dust emission in the southwestern U.S. Seasonal dust flux in the Mojave-southern Great Basin (MSGB) deserts, measured from 1999 to 2008, is similar in summer-fall and winter-spring, and antecedent precipitation tends to suppress dust flux in winter-spring. In contrast, dust flux in the eastern Colorado Plateau (ECP) region is much larger in summer-fall than in winter-spring, and twice as large as in the MSGB. ECP dust is related to wind speed, and in the winter-spring to antecedent moisture. Higher summer dust flux in the ECP is likely due to gustier winds and runoff during monsoonal storms when temperature is also higher. Source types in the MSGB and land use in the ECP have important effects on seasonal dust flux. In the MSGB, wet playas produce salt-rich dust during wetter seasons, whereas antecedent and current moisture suppress dust emission from alluvial and dry-playa sources during winter-spring. In the ECP under drought conditions, dust flux at a grazed-and-plowed site increased greatly, and also increased at three annualized, previously grazed sites. Dust fluxes remained relatively consistent at ungrazed and currently grazed sites that have maintained perennial vegetation cover. Under predicted scenarios of future climate change, these results suggest that an increase in summer storms may increase dust flux in both areas, but resultant effects will depend on source type, land use, and vegetation cover. ?? 2011.

Performance evaluation of CESM in simulating the dust cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, S. P.; Yang, Z. L.; Kocurek, G.; Lawrence, D. M.

2014-12-01

Mineral dust in the atmosphere has implications for Earth's radiation budget, biogeochemical cycles, hydrological cycles, human health and visibility. Mineral dust is injected into the atmosphere during dust storms when the surface winds are sufficiently strong and the land surface conditions are favorable. Dust storms are very common in specific regions of the world including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which contains more than 50% of the global dust sources. In this work, we present simulation of the dust cycle under the framework of CESM1.2.2 and evaluate how well the model captures the spatio-temporal characteristics of dust sources, transport and deposition at global scale, especially in dust source regions. We conducted our simulations using two existing erodibility maps (geomorphic and topographic) and a new erodibility map, which is based on the correlation between observed wind and dust. We compare the simulated results with MODIS satellite data, MACC reanalysis data, and AERONET station data. Comparison with MODIS satellite data and MACC reanalysis data shows that all three erodibility maps generally reproduce the spatio-temporal characteristics of dust optical depth globally. However, comparison with AERONET station data shows that the simulated dust optical depth is generally overestimated for all erodibility maps. Results vary greatly by region and scale of observational data. Our results also show that the simulations forced by reanalysis meteorology capture the overall dust cycle more realistically compared to the simulations done using online meteorology.

Meteorological, atmospheric and climatic perturbations during major dust storms over Indo-Gangetic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sarvan; Kumar, Sanjay; Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Singh, Ramesh P.; Singh, Rajeev K.; Mishra, Amit K.; Srivastava, Manoj K.; Singh, Abhay K.

2015-06-01

During the pre-monsoon season (April-June), the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) suffers from frequent and intense dust storms originated from the arid and desert regions of southwest Asia (Iran, Afghanistan), Arabia and Thar desert blanketing IGB and Himalayan foothills. The present study examines the columnar and vertical aerosol characteristics and estimates the shortwave (0.25-4.0 μm) aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) and atmospheric heating rates over Kanpur, central IGB, during three intense dust-storm events in the pre-monsoon season of 2010. MODIS images, meteorological and AERONET observations clearly show that all the dust storms either originated from the Thar desert or transported over, under favorable meteorological conditions (low pressure and strong surface winds) affecting nearly the whole IGB and modifying the aerosol loading and characteristics (Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo, size distribution and refractive index). CALIPSO observations reveal the presence of high-altitude (up to 3-5 km) dust plumes that strongly modify the vertical aerosol profile and are transported over Himalayan foothills with serious climate implications (atmospheric warming, enhanced melting of glaciers). Shortwave ARF calculations over Kanpur using SBDART model show large negative forcing values at the surface (-93.27, -101.60 and -66.71 W m-2) during the intense dusty days, associated with planetary (top of atmosphere) cooling (-18.16, -40.95, -29.58 W m-2) and significant atmospheric heating (75.11, 60.65, 37.13 W m-2), which is translated to average heating rates of 1.57, 1.41 and 0.78 K day-1, respectively in the lower atmosphere (below ∼3.5 km). The ARF estimates are in satisfactory agreement with the AERONET ARF retrievals over Kanpur.

Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS): A regional prototype for a national problem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamey, B.; Smith, W.; Carey, K.; Garbin, D.; Klein, F.; Wang, Hongfang; Shen, J.; Gong, W.; Cho, J.; Forrest, D.; Friedrichs, C.; Boicourt, W.; Li, M.; Koterba, M.; King, D.; Titlow, J.; Smith, E.; Siebers, A.; Billet, J.; Lee, J.; Manning, Douglas R.; Szatkowski, G.; Wilson, D.; Ahnert, P.; Ostrowski, J.

2007-01-01

Recent Hurricanes Katrina and Isabel, among others, not only demonstrated their immense destructive power, but also revealed the obvious, crucial need for improved storm surge forecasting and information delivery to save lives and property in future storms. Current operational methods and the storm surge and inundation products do not adequately meet requirements needed by Emergency Managers (EMs) at local, state, and federal levels to protect and inform our citizens. The Chesapeake Bay Inundation Prediction System (CIPS) is being developed to improve the accuracy, reliability, and capability of flooding forecasts for tropical cyclones and non-tropical wind systems such as nor'easters by modeling and visualizing expected on-land storm-surge inundation along the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. An initial prototype has been developed by a team of government, academic and industry partners through the Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS) of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (MACOORA) within the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). For demonstration purposes, this initial prototype was developed for the tidal Potomac River in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. The preliminary information from this prototype shows great potential as a mechanism by which NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices (WFOs) can provide more specific and timely forecasts of likely inundation in individual localities from significant storm surge events. This prototype system has shown the potential to indicate flooding at the street level, at time intervals of an hour or less, and with vertical resolution of one foot or less. This information will significantly improve the ability of EMs and first responders to mitigate life and property loss and improve evacuation capabilities in individual communities. This paper provides an update and expansion of the initial prototype that was presented at the Oceans 2006 MTS/IEEE Conference in Boston, MA. ??2007 MTS.

Springtime Dust Storm Swirls at Martian North Pole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1996-01-01

Two Hubble Space Telescope images of Mars, taken about a month apart on September 18 and October 15, 1996, reveal a state-sized dust storm churning near the edge of the Martian north polar cap. The polar storm is probably a consequence of large temperature differences between the polar ice and the dark regions to the south, which are heated by the springtime sun. The increased sunlight also causes the dry ice in the polar cap to sublime and shrink.

Mars is famous for large, planet-wide dust storms. Smaller storms resembling the one seen here were observed in other regions by Viking orbiters in the late 1970s. However, this is the first time that such an event has been caught near the receding north polar cap. The Hubble images provide valuable new insights into the behavior of localized dust storms on Mars, which are typically below the resolution of ground-based telescopes. This kind of advanced planetary 'weather report' will be invaluable for aiding preparation for the landing of NASA's Pathfinder spacecraft in July 1997 and the arrival of Mars Global Surveyor orbiter in September 1997.

Top (September 18, 1996) - The salmon colored notch in the white north polar cap is a 600-mile (1,000 kilometer) long storm -- nearly the width of Texas. The bright dust can also be seen over the dark surface surrounding the cap, where it is caught up in the Martian jet stream and blown easterly. The white clouds at lower latitudes are mostly associated with major Martian volcanos such as Olympus Mons. This image was taken when Mars was more than 186 million miles (300 million kilometers) from Earth, and the planet was smaller in angular size than Jupiter's Great Red Spot!

Bottom (October 15, 1996) - Though the storm has dissipated by October, a distinctive dust-colored comma-shaped feature can be seen curving across the ice cap. The shape is similar to cold fronts on Earth, which are associated with low pressure systems. Nothing quite like this feature has been seen previously either in ground-based or spacecraft observation. The snow line marking the edge of the cap receded northward by approximately 120 miles (200 kilometers), while the distance to the Red Planet narrowed to 170 million miles (275 million kilometers).

Technical notes: To help compare locations and sizes of features, map projections (right of each disk) are centered on the geographic north pole. Maps are oriented with 0 degrees longitude at the top and show meridians every 45 degrees of longitude (longitude increases clockwise); latitude circles are also shown for 40, 60, and 80 degrees north latitude. The color images were assembled from separate exposures taken with the Wide Field Planetary Camera 2.

This image and other images and data received from the Hubble Space Telescope are posted on the World Wide Web on the Space Telescope Science Institute home page at URL http:// oposite.stsci.edu/pubinfo/

Preliminary Study on Coupling Wave-Tide-Storm Surges Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, S.; Park, S.; Seo, J.; Kim, K.

2008-12-01

The Korean Peninsula is surrounded by the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and East Sea. This complex oceanographic system includes large tides in the Yellow Sea and seasonally varying monsoon and typhoon events. For Korea's coastal regions, floods caused by wave and storm surges are among the most serious threats. To predict more accurate wave and storm surge, the development of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system is essential. For the time being, wave and storm surges predictions are still made separately in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and most operational institute. However, many researchers have emphasized the effects of tides and storm surges on wind waves and recommended further investigations into the effects of wave-tide-storm surges interactions and coupling module on wave heights. However, tidal height and current give a great effect on the wave prediction in the Yellow sea where is very high tide and related research is not enough. At present, KMA has operated the wave (RWAM : Regional Wave Model) and storm surges/tide prediction system (RTSM : Regional Tide/Storm Surges Model) for ocean forecasting. The RWAM is WAVEWATCH III which is a third generation wave model developed by Tolman (1989). The RTSM is based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model, Blumberg and Mellor, 1987). The RWAM and RTSM cover the northwestern Pacific Ocean from 115°E to 150°E and from 20°N to 52°N. The horizontal grid intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. The development, testing and application of a coupling module in which wave-tide-storm surges are incorporated within the frame of KMA Ocean prediction system, has been considered as a step forward in respect of ocean forecasting. In addition, advanced wave prediction model will be applicable to the effect of ocean in the weather forecasting system. The main purpose of this study is to show how the coupling module developed and to report on a series of experiments dealing with the sensitivities and real case prediction of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system.

An online mineral dust model within the global/regional NMMB: current progress and plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, C.; Haustein, K.; Janjic, Z.; Jorba, O.; Baldasano, J. M.; Black, T.; Nickovic, S.

2008-12-01

While mineral dust distribution and effects are important on global scales, they strongly depend on dust emissions that are occurring on small spatial and temporal scales. Indeed, the accuracy of surface wind speed used in dust models is crucial. Due to the high-order power dependency on wind friction velocity and the threshold behaviour of dust emissions, small errors in surface wind speed lead to large dust emission errors. Most global dust models use prescribed wind fields provided by major meteorological centres (e.g., NCEP and ECMWF) and their spatial resolution is currently about 1 degree x 1 degree . Such wind speeds tend to be strongly underestimated over arid and semi-arid areas and do not account for mesoscale systems responsible for a significant fraction of dust emissions regionally and globally. Other significant uncertainties in dust emissions resulting from such approaches are related to the misrepresentation of high subgrid-scale spatial heterogeneity in soil and vegetation boundary conditions, mainly in semi-arid areas. In order to significantly reduce these uncertainties, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center is currently implementing a mineral dust model coupled on-line with the new global/regional NMMB atmospheric model using the ESMF framework under development in NOAA/NCEP/EMC. The NMMB is an evolution of the operational WRF-NMME extending from meso to global scales, and including non-hydrostatic option and improved tracer advection. This model is planned to become the next-generation NCEP mesoscale model for operational weather forecasting in North America. Current implementation is based on the well established regional dust model and forecast system Eta/DREAM (http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/). First successful global simulations show the potentials of such an approach and compare well with DREAM regionally. Ongoing developments include improvements in dust size distribution representation, sedimentation, dry deposition, wet scavenging and dust-radiation feedback, as well as the efficient implementation of the model on High Performance Supercomputers for global simulations and forecasts at high resolution.

PM10 concentration levels at an urban and background site in Cyprus: the impact of urban sources and dust storms.

PubMed

Achilleos, Souzana; Evans, John S; Yiallouros, Panayiotis K; Kleanthous, Savvas; Schwartz, Joel; Koutrakis, Petros

2014-12-01

Air quality in Cyprus is influenced by both local and transported pollution, including desert dust storms. We examined PM10 concentration data collected in Nicosia (urban representative) from April 1, 1993, through December 11, 2008, and in Ayia Marina (rural background representative) from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2008. Measurements were conducted using a Tapered Element Oscillating Micro-balance (TEOM). PM10 concentrations, meteorological records, and satellite data were used to identify dust storm days. We investigated long-term trends using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) after controlling for day of week, month, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. In Nicosia, annual PM10 concentrations ranged from 50.4 to 63.8 μg/m3 and exceeded the EU annual standard limit enacted in 2005 of 40 μg/m3 every year A large, statistically significant impact of urban sources (defined as the difference between urban and background levels) was seen in Nicosia over the period 2000-2008, and was highest during traffic hours, weekdays, cold months, and low wind conditions. Our estimate of the mean (standard error) contribution of urban sources to the daily ambient PM10 was 24.0 (0.4) μg/m3. The study of yearly trends showed that PM10 levels in Nicosia decreased from 59.4 μg/m3 in 1993 to 49.0 μg/m3 in 2008, probably in part as a result of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus. In Ayia Marina, annual concentrations ranged from 27.3 to 35.6 μg/m3, and no obvious time trends were observed. The levels measured at the Cyprus background site are comparable to background concentrations reported in other Eastern Mediterranean countries. Average daily PM10 concentrations during desert dust storms were around 100 μg/m3 since 2000 and much higher in earlier years. Despite the large impact ofdust storms and their increasing frequency over time, dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the exceedances of the daily PM10 limit. Implications: This paper examines PM10 concentrations in Nicosia, Cyprus, from 1993 to 2008. The decrease in PM10 levels in Nicosia suggests that the implementation of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus has been effective. However, particle levels still exceeded the European Uion annual standard, and dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the daily PM10 limit exceedances. Other natural particles that are not assessed in this study, such as resuspended soil and sea salt, may be responsible in part for the hig particle levels.

Lorentz-Shaped Comet Dust Trail Cross Section from New Hybrid Visual and Video Meteor Counting Technique - Implications for Future Leonid Storm Encounters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenniskens, Peter; Crawford, Chris; Butow, Steven J.; Nugent, David; Koop, Mike; Holman, David; Houston, Jane; Jobse, Klaas; Kronk, Gary

2000-01-01

A new hybrid technique of visual and video meteor observations was developed to provide high precision near real-time flux measurements for satellite operators from airborne platforms. A total of 33,000 Leonids. recorded on video during the 1999 Leonid storm, were watched by a team of visual observers using a video head display and an automatic counting tool. The counts reveal that the activity profile of the Leonid storm is a Lorentz profile. By assuming a radial profile for the dust trail that is also a Lorentzian, we make predictions for future encounters. If that assumption is correct, we passed 0.0003 AU deeper into the 1899 trailet than expected during the storm of 1999 and future encounters with the 1866 trailet will be less intense than. predicted elsewhere.

Storm Surge Modeling of Typhoon Haiyan at the Naval Oceanographic Office Using Delft3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, M. J.; Lovering, J. L.

2016-02-01

The Naval Oceanographic Office provides estimates of the rise in sea level along the coast due to storm surge associated with tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes. Storm surge modeling and prediction helps the US Navy by providing a threat assessment tool to help protect Navy assets and provide support for humanitarian assistance/disaster relief efforts. Recent advancements in our modeling capabilities include the use of the Delft3D modeling suite as part of a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) developed Coastal Surge Inundation Prediction System (CSIPS). Model simulations were performed on Typhoon Haiyan, which made landfall in the Philippines in November 2013. Comparisons of model simulations using forecast and hindcast track data highlight the importance of accurate storm track information for storm surge predictions. Model runs using the forecast track prediction and hindcast track information give maximum storm surge elevations of 4 meters and 6.1 meters, respectively. Model results for the hindcast simulation were compared with data published by the JSCE-PICE Joint survey for locations in San Pedro Bay (SPB) and on the Eastern Samar Peninsula (ESP). In SPB, where wind-induced set-up predominates, the model run using the forecast track predicted surge within 2 meters in 38% of survey locations and within 3 meters in 59% of the locations. When the hindcast track was used, the model predicted within 2 meters in 77% of the locations and within 3 meters in 95% of the locations. The model was unable to predict the high surge reported along the ESP produced by infragravity wave-induced set-up, which is not simulated in the model. Additional modeling capabilities incorporating infragravity waves are required to predict storm surge accurately along open coasts with steep bathymetric slopes, such as those seen in island arcs.

Simulating Mars' Dust Cycle with a Mars General Circulation Model: Effects of Water Ice Cloud Formation on Dust Lifting Strength and Seasonality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2012-01-01

The dust cycle is critically important for the current climate of Mars. The radiative effects of dust impact the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere [1,2,3]. Although dust is present in the Martian atmosphere throughout the year, the level of dustiness varies with season. The atmosphere is generally the dustiest during northern fall and winter and the least dusty during northern spring and summer [4]. Dust particles are lifted into the atmosphere by dust storms that range in size from meters to thousands of kilometers across [5]. Regional storm activity is enhanced before northern winter solstice (Ls200 degrees - 240 degrees), and after northern solstice (Ls305 degrees - 340 degrees ), which produces elevated atmospheric dust loadings during these periods [5,6,7]. These pre- and post- solstice increases in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere with cross-equatorial transport of dust leading to enhanced dust lifting in the southern hemisphere [6]. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles [8,9,10]. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading.

Effect of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI) and degradation mechanisms on spent nuclear fuel rod mechanical performance during transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Brittany Ann

Winter storms can affect millions of people, with impacts such as disruptions to transportation, hazards to human health, reduction in retail sales, and structural damage. Blizzard forecasts for Alberta Clippers can be a particular challenge in the Northern Plains, as these systems typically depart from the Canadian Rockies, intensify, and impact the Northern Plains all within 24 hours. The purpose of this study is to determine whether probabilistic forecasts derived from a local physics-based ensemble can improve specific aspects of winter storm forecasts for three Alberta Clipper cases. Verification is performed on the ensemble members and ensemble mean with a focus on quantifying uncertainty in the storm track, two-meter winds, and precipitation using the MERRA and NOHRSC SNODAS datasets. This study finds that addition improvements are needed to proceed with operational use of the ensemble blizzard products, but the use of a proxy for blizzard conditions yields promising results.

Effects on surface meteorological parameters and radiation levels of a heavy dust storm occurred in Central Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maghrabi, A. H.; Al-Dosari, A. F.

2016-12-01

On 24 April 2015 a severe dust storm event arrived at Riyadh causing various problems. The quantitative impact of this dusty event on solar ultraviolet radiation UVA and UVB, global solar radiation component, downward and outgoing long-wave radiation, and some meteorological variables, was investigated and presented. The results showed significant changes in all of these parameters due to this event. Shortly after the storm arrived, UVA, UVB, global radiation, and air temperature rapidly decrease by 83%, 86%, 57.5%, and 9.4%, respectively. Atmospheric pressure increased by 4 mbar, relative humidly increased from 8% to 16%, and wind direction became northerly with wind speed increasing to a maximum of 6.3 m/s. Outgoing long-wave radiation decreased by 19 W/m2 and downward long-wave radiation increased by 41 W/m2. The dust storm caused the atmosphere to emit radiation that resembled that of a black body. The daily average of the atmospheric pressure showed no changes compared to a non-dusty day. Apart from the relative humidity (which increased by about 32%), the remainder of the variables have shown significant reduction, with different magnitudes, in their daily values due to the dust event compared to the values of a non-disturbed reference day. For instance, the daily mean values of the UVA radiation, air temperature, and outgoing long-wave radiation, decreased in the dusty day by 15.6%, 30.8% and 11.4%, respectively, as compared to the clear day.

Martian extratropical cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunt, G. E.; James, P. B.

1979-01-01

Physical properties of summer-season baroclinic waves on Mars are discussed on the basis of vidicon images and infrared thermal mapping generated by Viking Orbiter 1. The two northern-hemisphere storm systems examined here appear to be similar to terrestrial mid-latitude cyclonic storms. The Martian storm clouds are probably composed of water ice, rather than dust or CO2 ice particles.

Developing empirical lightning cessation forecast guidance for the Kennedy Space Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.

The Kennedy Space Center in east Central Florida is one of the few locations in the country that issues lightning advisories. These forecasts are vital to the daily operations of the Space Center and take on even greater significance during launch operations. The U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron (45WS), who provides forecasts for the Space Center, has a good record of forecasting the initiation of lightning near their locations of special concern. However, the remaining problem is knowing when to cancel a lightning advisory. Without specific scientific guidelines detailing cessation activity, the Weather Squadron must keep advisories in place longer than necessary to ensure the safety of personnel and equipment. This unnecessary advisory time costs the Space Center millions of dollars in lost manpower each year. This research presents storm and environmental characteristics associated with lightning cessation that then are utilized to create lightning cessation guidelines for isolated thunderstorms for use by the 45WS during the warm season months of May through September. The research uses data from the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network at the Kennedy Space Center, which can observe intra-cloud and portions of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. Supporting data from the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), radar observations from the Melbourne WSR-88D, and Cape Canaveral morning radiosonde launches also are included. Characteristics of 116 thunderstorms comprising our dataset are presented. Most of these characteristics are based on LDAR-derived spark and flash data and have not been described previously. In particular, the first lightning activity is quantified as either cloud-to-ground (CG) or intra-cloud (IC). Only 10% of the storms in this research are found to initiate with a CG strike. Conversely, only 16% of the storms end with a CG strike. Another characteristic is the average horizontal extent of all the flashes comprising a storm. Our average is 12-14 km, while the greatest flash extends 26 km. Comparisons between the starting altitude of the median and last flashes of a storm are analyzed, with only 37% of the storms having a higher last flash initiating altitude. Additional observations are made of the total lightning flash rate, percentage of CG to IC lightning, trends of individual flash initiation altitudes versus the average initiation altitude, the average inter-flash time distribution, and time series of inter-flash times. Five schemes to forecast lightning cessation are developed and evaluated. 100 of the 116 storms were randomly selected as the dependent sample, while the remaining 16 storms were used for verification. The schemes included a correlation and regression tree analysis, multiple linear regression, trends of storm duration, trend of the altitude of the greatest reflectivity to the time of the final flash, and a percentile scheme. Surprisingly, the percentile method was found to be the most effective technique and the simplest. The inclusion of real time storm parameters is found to have little effect on the results, suggesting that different forecast predictors, such as microphysical data from polarimetric radar, will be necessary to produce improved skill. When the percentile method used a confidence level of 99.5%, it successfully maintained lightning advisories for all 16 independent storms on which the schemes were tested. Since the computed wait time was 25 min, compared to the 45WS' most conservative and accurate wait time of 30 min, the percentile method saves 5 min for each advisory. This 5 min of savings safely shortens the Weather Squadron's advisories and saves money. Additionally, these results are the first to evaluate the 30/30 rule that is used commonly. The success of the percentile method is surprising since it out performs more complex procedures involving correlation and regression tree analysis and regression schemes. These more sophisticated statistical analyses were expected to perform better since they include more predictors in the forecasts. However, with the predictors available to us, this was not the case. While not the expected result, the percentile method succeeds in creating a safe and expedited forecast.

Computer-Assisted Interactive Documentary and Performance Arts in Illimitable Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, William Michael

Winter can bring significant snow storm systems or nor'easters to New England. Understanding each factor which can affect nor'easters will allow forecasters to better predict the subsequent weather conditions. One important parameter is the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic Ocean, where many of these systems strengthen and gain much of their structure. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate four different nor'easters (Mar 2007, Dec 2007, Jan 2008, Dec 2010) using both observed and warmed SSTs. For the wanner SST simulations, the SSTs over the model domain were increased by 1°C. This change increased the total surface heat fluxes in all of the storms, and the resulting simulated storms were all more intense. The influence on the amount of snowfall over land was highly variable, depending on how close to the coastline the storms were and temperatures across the region.

Design and skill assessment of an Operational Forecasting System for currents and sea level variability to the Santos Estuarine System - Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godoi Rezende Costa, C.; Castro, B. M.; Blumberg, A. F.; Leite, J. R. B., Sr.

2017-12-01

Santos City is subject to an average of 12 storm tide events per year. Such events bring coastal flooding able to threat human life and damage coastal infrastructure. Severe events have forced the interruption of ferry boat services and ship traffic through Santos Harbor, causing great impacts to Santos Port, the largest in South America, activities. Several studies have focused on the hydrodynamics of storm tide events but only a few of those studies have pursued an operational initiative to predict short term (< 3 days) sea level variability. The goals of this study are (i) to describe the design of an operational forecasting system built to predict sea surface elevation and currents in the Santos Estuarine System and (ii) to evaluate model performance in simulating observed sea surface elevation. The Santos Operational Forecasting System (SOFS) hydrodynamic module is based on the Stevens Institute Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM). The fully automated SOFS is designed to provide up to 71 h forecast of sea surface elevations and currents every day. The system automatically collects results from global models to run the SOFS nested into another sECOM based model for the South Brazil Bight (SBB). Global forecasting results used to force both models come from Mercator Ocean, released by Copernicus Marine Service, and from the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) stablished by the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (with Portuguese acronym CPTEC). The complete routines task take about 8 hours of run time to finish. SOFS was able to hindcast a severe storm tide event that took place in Santos on August 21-22, 2016. Comparisons with observed sea level provided skills of 0.92 and maximum root mean square errors of 25 cm. The good agreement with observed data shows the potential of the designed system to predict storm tides and to support both human and assets protection.

Back-to-Back Martian Dust Storms

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-03-09

This frame from a movie clip of hundreds of images from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter shows a global map of Mars with atmospheric changes from Feb. 18, 2017 through March 6, 2017, a period when two regional-scale dust storms appeared. It combines hundreds of images from the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) camera on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. The date for each map in the series is given at upper left. Dust storms appear as pale tan. In the opening frames, one appears left of center, near the top (north) of the map, then grows in size as it moves south, eventually spreading to about half the width of the map after reaching the southern hemisphere. As the dust from that first storm becomes more diffuse in the south, another storm appears near the center of the map in the final frames. In viewing the movie, it helps to understand some of the artifacts produced by the nature of MARCI images when seen in animation. MARCI acquires images in swaths from pole-to-pole during the dayside portion of each orbit. The camera can cover the entire planet in just over 12 orbits, and takes about one day to accumulate this coverage. The individual swaths for each day are assembled into a false-color, map-projected mosaic for the day. Equally spaced blurry areas that run from south-to-north result from the high off-nadir viewing geometry in those parts of each swath, a product of the spacecraft's low orbit. Portions with sharper-looking details are the central part of an image, viewing more directly downward through less atmosphere than the obliquely viewed portions. MARCI has a 180-degree field of view, and Mars fills about 78 percent of that field of view when the camera is pointed down at the planet. However, the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter often is pointed to one side or the other off its orbital track in order to acquire targeted observations by other imaging systems on the spacecraft. When such rolls exceed about 20 degrees, gaps occur in the mosaic of MARCI swaths. Other dark gaps appear where data are missing. It isn't easy to see the actual dust motion in the atmosphere in these images, owing to the apparent motion of these artifacts. However, by concentrating on specific surface features (craters, prominent ice deposits, etc.) and looking for the tan clouds of dust, it is possible to see where the storms start and how they grow, move and eventually dissipate. Movies are available at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21484

A 10-year time-series analysis of respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity in Nicosia, Cyprus: the effect of short-term changes in air pollution and dust storms

PubMed Central

Middleton, Nicos; Yiallouros, Panayiotis; Kleanthous, Savvas; Kolokotroni, Ourania; Schwartz, Joel; Dockery, Douglas W; Demokritou, Phil; Koutrakis, Petros

2008-01-01

Background To date, a substantial body of research has shown adverse health effects of short-term changes in levels of air pollution. Such associations have not been investigated in smaller size cities in the Eastern Mediterranean. A particular feature in the region is dust blown from the Sahara a few times a year resulting in extreme PM10 concentrations. It is not entirely clear whether such natural phenomena pose the same risks. Methods The effect of changes in daily levels of particulate matter (PM10) and ozone (O3) on hospitalization for all, cardiovascular and respiratory causes in the two hospitals in Nicosia during 1 January 1995 and 30 December 2004 was investigated using generalized additive Poisson models after controlling for long- and short-term patterns as well as for the effect of weather. Meteorological records were reviewed to identify dust-storm days and analyses were repeated to quantify their effect on cardio-respiratory morbidity. Results For every 10 μg/m3 increase in daily average PM10 concentrations, there was a 0.9% (95%CI: 0.6%, 1.2%) increase in all-cause and 1.2% (95%CI: -0.0%, 2.4%) increase in cardiovascular admissions. With respect to respiratory causes, an effect was observed only in the warm months. No lagged effects with levels of PM10 were observed. In contrast, positive associations with levels of ozone were only observed the two days prior to admission. These appeared stronger for cardiovascular causes and independent of the effect of PM. All-cause and cardiovascular admissions were 4.8% (95%CI: 0.7%, 9.0%) and 10.4% (95%CI: -4.7%, 27.9%) higher on dust storm days respectively. In both cases the magnitude of effect was comparable to that seen on the quartile of non-storm days with the highest levels of PM10. Conclusion We observed an increased risk of hospitalization at elevated levels of particulate matter and ozone generally consistent with the magnitude seen across several European cities. We also observed an increased risk of hospitalization on dust storm days, particularly for cardiovascular causes. While inference from these associations is limited due to the small number of dust storm days in the study period, it would appear imperative to issue health warnings for these natural events, particularly directed towards vulnerable population groups. PMID:18647382

Influence of dust and mud on the optical, chemical, and mechanical properties of a pv protective glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilbas, Bekir Sami.; Ali, Haider; Khaled, Mazen M.; Al-Aqeeli, Nasser; Abu-Dheir, Numan; Varanasi, Kripa K.

2015-10-01

Recent developments in climate change have increased the frequency of dust storms in the Middle East. Dust storms significantly influence the performances of solar energy harvesting systems, particularly (photovoltaic) PV systems. The characteristics of the dust and the mud formed from this dust are examined using various analytical tools, including optical, scanning electron, and atomic force microscopies, X-ray diffraction, energy spectroscopy, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The adhesion, cohesion and frictional forces present during the removal of dry mud from the glass surface are determined using a microtribometer. Alkali and alkaline earth metal compounds in the dust dissolve in water to form a chemically active solution at the glass surface. This solution modifies the texture of the glass surface, thereby increasing the microhardness and decreasing the transmittance of the incident optical radiation. The force required to remove the dry mud from the glass surface is high due to the cohesive forces that result from the dried mud solution at the interface between the mud and the glass. The ability altering the characteristics of the glass surface could address the dust/mud-related limitations of protective surfaces and has implications for efficiency enhancements in solar energy systems.

Influence of dust and mud on the optical, chemical, and mechanical properties of a pv protective glass.

PubMed

Yilbas, Bekir Sami; Ali, Haider; Khaled, Mazen M; Al-Aqeeli, Nasser; Abu-Dheir, Numan; Varanasi, Kripa K

2015-10-30

Recent developments in climate change have increased the frequency of dust storms in the Middle East. Dust storms significantly influence the performances of solar energy harvesting systems, particularly (photovoltaic) PV systems. The characteristics of the dust and the mud formed from this dust are examined using various analytical tools, including optical, scanning electron, and atomic force microscopies, X-ray diffraction, energy spectroscopy, and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The adhesion, cohesion and frictional forces present during the removal of dry mud from the glass surface are determined using a microtribometer. Alkali and alkaline earth metal compounds in the dust dissolve in water to form a chemically active solution at the glass surface. This solution modifies the texture of the glass surface, thereby increasing the microhardness and decreasing the transmittance of the incident optical radiation. The force required to remove the dry mud from the glass surface is high due to the cohesive forces that result from the dried mud solution at the interface between the mud and the glass. The ability altering the characteristics of the glass surface could address the dust/mud-related limitations of protective surfaces and has implications for efficiency enhancements in solar energy systems.

Remote sensing and modelling analysis of the extreme dust storm hitting the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean in September 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomos, Stavros; Ansmann, Albert; Mamouri, Rodanthi-Elisavet; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Patlakas, Platon; Marinou, Eleni; Amiridis, Vassilis

2017-03-01

The extreme dust storm that affected the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean in September 2015 resulted in record-breaking dust loads over Cyprus with aerosol optical depth exceeding 5.0 at 550 nm. We analyse this event using profiles from the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO), geostationary observations from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), and high-resolution simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The analysis of modelling and remote sensing data reveals the main mechanisms that resulted in the generation and persistence of the dust cloud over the Middle East and Cyprus. A combination of meteorological and surface processes is found, including (a) the development of a thermal low in the area of Syria that results in unstable atmospheric conditions and dust mobilization in this area, (b) the convective activity over northern Iraq that triggers the formation of westward-moving haboobs that merge with the previously elevated dust layer, and (c) the changes in land use due to war in the areas of northern Iraq and Syria that enhance dust erodibility.

Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2017 in the United States

MedlinePlus

... Damage Costs Weather Event Convection Lightning Tornado Thunderstorm Wind Hail Extreme Temperatures Cold Heat Flood Flash Flood ... Drought Dust Storm Dust Devil Rain Fog High Wind Waterspout Fire Weather Mud Slide Volcanic Ash Miscellaneous ...

Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2015 in the United States

MedlinePlus

... Damage Costs Weather Event Convection Lightning Tornado Thunderstorm Wind Hail Extreme Temperatures Cold Heat Flood Flash Flood ... Drought Dust Storm Dust Devil Rain Fog High Wind Waterspout Fire Weather Mud Slide Volcanic Ash Miscellaneous ...

Coastal and Riverine Flood Forecast Model powered by ADCIRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, A.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding is becoming a major threat to increased population in the coastal areas. To protect coastal communities from tropical storms & hurricane damages, early warning systems are being developed. These systems have the capability of real time flood forecasting to identify hazardous coastal areas and aid coastal communities in rescue operations. State of the art hydrodynamic models forced by atmospheric forcing have given modelers the ability to forecast storm surge, water levels and currents. This helps to identify the areas threatened by intense storms. Study on Chesapeake Bay area has gained national importance because of its combined riverine and coastal phenomenon, which leads to greater uncertainty in flood predictions. This study presents an automated flood forecast system developed by following Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Surge Guidance System (ASGS) guidelines and tailored to take in riverine and coastal boundary forcing, thus includes all the hydrodynamic processes to forecast total water in the Potomac River. As studies on tidal and riverine flow interaction are very scarce in number, our forecast system would be a scientific tool to examine such area and fill the gaps with precise prediction for Potomac River. Real-time observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and field measurements have been used as model boundary feeding. The model performance has been validated by using major historical riverine and coastal flooding events. Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC produced promising predictions for flood inundation areas. As better forecasts can be achieved by using coupled models, this system is developed to take boundary conditions from Global WaveWatchIII for the research purposes. Wave and swell propagation will be fed through Global WavewatchIII model to take into account the effects of swells and currents. This automated forecast system is currently undergoing rigorous testing to include any missing parameters which might provide better and more reliable forecast for the flood affected communities.

Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Results of a National Academies Workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friday, E.; Barron, E. J.; Elfring, C.; Geller, L.

2002-12-01

When a major East Coast snowstorm was forecast during the winter of 2001, people began preparing - both the public and the decision-makers responsible for public services. There was an air of urgency, heightened because just the previous year the region had been hit hard by a storm of unpredicted strength. But this time, the storm never materialized and people were left wondering what went "wrong" with the forecast. Did something go wrong or did forecasters just fail to communicate their information in an effective way? Did they convey a sense of the likelihood of the event and keep people up to date as information changed? In the summer of 2001, the National Academies' Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate hosted a workshop designed to explore the communication of uncertainty in weather and climate information. Workshop participants examined five case studies that were chosen to illustrate a range of forecast timescales and certainty levels. The cases were: Red River Flood, Grand Forks, April 1997; East Coast Winter Storm, March 2001; Oklahoma-Kansas Tornado Outbreak, May 3, 1999; El Nino 1997-1998, and Climate Change Science, a report issued in 2001. In each of these cases, participants examined who said what, when, to whom, how, and with what effect. The last two cases specifically address climate-related topics. This paper summarizes the final workshop report (Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Summary of a Workshop, NRC 2002), including an overview of the five cases and lessons learned about communicating uncertainties in weather and climate forecasts. Among other findings, the report stresses that communication and appropriate dissemination of information, including information about uncertainty in the forecasts and the forecaster's confidence in the product, should be an integral, ongoing part of the forecasting process, not an afterthought. Explaining uncertainty should be an integral part of what weather and climate forecasters do and is essential to delivering accurate and useful information.

The Dust at Altitude Recovery Technology (DART) System was Developed to Recover Plant, Human, and Animal Pathogens in Asian and African Dust Storms over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuerger, A. C.; Tench, B.; Nehr, A.; Emmons, T.; Valbuena, F.; Palaia, J.; Sugars, C.

2014-12-01

Dust emanates year-round from Africa and Asia and impacts air quality in North America. Asian dust plumes deliver up to 64 million tonnes of dust over the NW of the USA, and African dust storms deliver over 50 million tonnes of dust over Florida each year. Several recent studies have demonstrated that human and plant pathogens from Asian [1] African [2] aerosols can be transported to N. America in naturally occurring dust storms. What is unknown is whether these 'presumptive pathogens' impact human, plant, or animal health in the USA. In order to initiate a long-term monitoring program of pathogens in Asian and African dust plumes, we have developed a dust collection system called DART (Dust at Altitude Recovery Technology) (figure). The DART dust sampler can be mounted on a F104 Starfighter jet (figure) and a T6 Texan propeller driven airplane (not shown), and was test flown over FL in Dec. 2013 on the F104 and on the T6 in the summer of 2014. The DART system utilizes a high-volume pump to pass air through 6 separate filtration units where both aerosols and microbial cells are captured. The filtration systems exhibit flow rates from 25-142 L/min depending on the pore size and brand of filters used. Flow rates are directly correlated to increased air speed, and are inversely correlated to increased altitude. Filtration units can be turned on and off individually as required for specific science flight objectives. The DART dust sampler has performed nominally up to 7600 m, 0.92 Mach, and 3.5 +G's. During initial test flights in Dec. 2013, 5 of 8 genera of fungi recovered from the lower atmosphere over FL contained plant pathogens including species in the genera: Acremonium, Aspergillus, Cladosporium, Curvularia, and Fusarium. Numbers of recovered fungi, but not bacteria, increased significantly when 5 or 10 µm filters were used in the DART system compared to filter pore sizes ≤ 1.2 µm. Future sampling programs for both Asian and African dust events will be discussed. References: [1] Smith, D. J., et al., 2012. Microbial Ecology 64,973-985. [2] Griffin, D. W. 2007, Clinical Microbiology Reviews 20, 459-477.

Severe storms forecast systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaplan, M.; Zack, J.

1980-01-01

Two research tasks are described: (1) the improvement and enhancement of an existing mesoscale numerical simulation system, and (2) numerical diagnostic studies associated with an individual case of severe storm development (April 10, 1979 in the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma).

Dust Cloud, Mid Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

This view of a dust cloud from a Sahara Desert, North Africa dust storm was taken over the Mid Atlantic Ocean, some 1700 miles from the African coast (24.5N, 45.0W). Dust, sand and other particulate matter from arid regions is frequently stirred up by fast blowing desert winds and carried aloft to high altitudes where it may be transported great distances, sometimes as much as half way around the world.

ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May U.S. tornado and hail activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepore, Chiara; Tippett, Michael K.; Allen, John T.

2017-09-01

Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Niña like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state.

STEREO as a "Planetary Hazards" Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guhathakurta, M.; Thompson, B. J.

2014-01-01

NASA's twin STEREO probes, launched in 2006, have advanced the art and science of space weather forecasting more than any other spacecraft or solar observatory. By surrounding the Sun, they provide previously-impossible early warnings of threats approaching Earth as they develop on the solar far side. They have also revealed the 3D shape and inner structure of CMEs-massive solar storms that can trigger geomagnetic storms when they collide with Earth. This improves the ability of forecasters to anticipate the timing and severity of such events. Moreover, the unique capability of STEREO to track CMEs in three dimensions allows forecasters to make predictions for other planets, giving rise to the possibility of interplanetary space weather forecasting too. STEREO is one of those rare missions for which "planetary hazards" refers to more than one world. The STEREO probes also hold promise for the study of comets and potentially hazardous asteroids.

L-band Microwave Remote Sensing and Land Data Assimilation Improve the Representation of Prestorm Soil Moisture Conditions for Hydrologic Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crow, W. T.; Chen, F.; Reichle, R. H.; Liu, Q.

2017-01-01

Recent advances in remote sensing and land data assimilation purport to improve the quality of antecedent soil moisture information available for operational hydrologic forecasting. We objectively validate this claim by calculating the strength of the relationship between storm-scale runoff ratio (i.e., total stream flow divided by total rainfall accumulation in depth units) and pre-storm surface soil moisture estimates from a range of surface soil moisture data products. Results demonstrate that both satellite-based, L-band microwave radiometry and the application of land data assimilation techniques have significantly improved the utility of surface soil moisture data sets for forecasting stream flow response to future rainfall events.

Analog ensemble and Bayesian regression techniques to improve the wind speed prediction during extreme storms in the NE U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Delle Monache, L.; Alessandrini, S.

2016-12-01

Accuracy of weather forecasts in Northeast U.S. has become very important in recent years, given the serious and devastating effects of extreme weather events. Despite the use of evolved forecasting tools and techniques strengthened by increased super-computing resources, the weather forecasting systems still have their limitations in predicting extreme events. In this study, we examine the combination of analog ensemble and Bayesian regression techniques to improve the prediction of storms that have impacted NE U.S., mostly defined by the occurrence of high wind speeds (i.e. blizzards, winter storms, hurricanes and thunderstorms). The predicted wind speed, wind direction and temperature by two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) are combined using the mentioned techniques, exploring various ways that those variables influence the minimization of the prediction error (systematic and random). This study is focused on retrospective simulations of 146 storms that affected the NE U.S. in the period 2005-2016. In order to evaluate the techniques, leave-one-out cross validation procedure was implemented regarding 145 storms as the training dataset. The analog ensemble method selects a set of past observations that corresponded to the best analogs of the numerical weather prediction and provides a set of ensemble members of the selected observation dataset. The set of ensemble members can then be used in a deterministic or probabilistic way. In the Bayesian regression framework, optimal variances are estimated for the training partition by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to the out-of-sample storm. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of 10-m wind speed for 146 storms using both techniques (20-30% bias and error reduction in all observation-model pairs). In this presentation, we discuss the various combinations of atmospheric predictors and techniques and illustrate how the long record of predicted storms is valuable in the improvement of wind speed prediction.

Use of Remote Sensing and Dust Modelling to Evaluate Ecosystem Phenology and Pollen Dispersal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Sprigg, William A.; Watts, Carol; Shaw, Patrick

2007-01-01

The impact of pollen release and downwind concentrations can be evaluated utilizing remote sensing. Previous NASA studies have addressed airborne dust prediction systems PHAiRS (Public Health Applications in Remote Sensing) which have determined that pollen forecasts and simulations are possible. By adapting the deterministic dust model (as an in-line system with the National Weather Service operational forecast model) used in PHAiRS to simulate downwind dispersal of pollen, initializing the model with pollen source regions from MODIS, assessing the results a rapid prototype concept can be produced. We will present the results of our effort to develop a deterministic model for predicting and simulating pollen emission and downwind concentration to study details or phenology and meteorology and their dependencies, and the promise of a credible real time forecast system to support public health and agricultural science and service. Previous studies have been done with PHAiRS research, the use of NASA data, the dust model and the PHAiRS potential to improve public health and environmental services long into the future.

The Coupled Roles of Dust and Clouds in the Mars Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clancy, R. Todd

2000-01-01

During the period October 1997 to September 1999 we obtained and analyzed over 100 millimeter-wave observations of Mars atmospheric CO line absorption for atmospheric temperature profiles. These measurements extend through one full Mars year (solar longitudes L(sub S) of 190 deg in 1997 to 180 deg in 1999) and coincide with atmospheric temperature profile and dust column measurements front the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) experiment on board the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft. A comparison of Mars atmospheric temperatures retrieved by these distinct methods provides the first opportunity to place the long-term (1982-1999) millimeter retrievals of Mars atmospheric temperatures within the context of contemporaneous, spatially mapped spacecraft, observations. Profile comparisons of 0-30 km altitude atmospheric temperatures retrieved with the two techniques agree typically to within the 5 K calibration accuracy of the millimeter observations. At the 0.5 mbar pressure level (approximately 25 km altitude) the 30N/30S average for TES infrared temperatures and the disk-averaged millimeter temperatures are also well correlated in their seasonal and dust-storm-related variations over the 1997-1999 period. This period includes the Noachis Terra regional dust storm, which led to very abrupt heating (approximately 15 K at 0.5 mbar) of the global Mars atmosphere at L(sub S)=224 deg in 1997 [Christensen et al., 1998; Conrath et al., this issue; Smith et al., this issue]. Much colder (10-20 K) global atmospheric temperatures were observed during the 1997 versus 1977 perihelion periods (L(sub S)=200 deg-330 deg), consistent with the much (2 to 8 times) lower global dust loading of the atmosphere during the 1997 perihelion dust storm season versus the Viking period of the 1977a,b storms. The 1998-1999 Mars atmosphere revealed by both the millimeter and TES observations is also 10-15 K colder than presented by the Viking climatology during the aphelion season (L(sub S)=0 deg-180 deg, northern spring/summer) of Mars. We reassess the observational basis of the Viking dusty-warm climatology for this season to conclude that the global aphelion atmosphere of Mars is colder, less dusty, and cloudier than indicated by the established Viking climatology even for the Viking period. We also conclude that Mars atmospheric temperatures exhibit their most significant interannual variations during the perihelion dust storm season (10-20 K for L(sub S)=200 deg-340 deg) and during the post-aphelion northern summer season (5-10 K for L(sub S)=100 deg-200 deg).

Forecasts of geomagnetic activities and HF radio propagation conditions made at Hiraiso/Japan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marubashi, K.; Miyamoto, Y.; Kidokoro, T.; Ishii, T.

1979-01-01

The Hiraiso Branch of RRL prediction techniques are summarized separately for the 27 day recurrent storm and the flare-associated storm. The storm predictions are compared with the actual geomagnetic activities in two ways. The first one is the comparison on a day to day basis. In the second comparison, the accuracy of the storm predictions during 1965-1976 are evaluated. In addition to the storm prediction, short-term predictions of HF radio propagation conditions are conducted at Hiraiso. The HF propagation predictions are briefly described as an example of the applications of the magnetic storm prediction.

A quantitative evaluation of the 3-8 July 2009 Shamal dust storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamidi, Mehdi; Kavianpour, Mohammad Reza; Shao, Yaping

2017-02-01

In this paper, a quantitative evaluation of the severe dust storm which occurred in the Middle East during 3-8 July 2009 is presented. The quantification is based on the numerical simulation using the WRF/Chem-D model which has been verified and calibrated for the Middle East region. It is found that, during the 3-8 July 2009 event, more than 9.67 Tg dust were emitted from the study area and the maximum simulated dust emission rate is 540 (μg m-2 s-1). The west of Iraq, east of Syria and northwest of Jordan (Al-Nafud desert and western Euphrates alluvial plain) are found to be the most active areas of dust emission, contributing much to the dust emission from the Middle East region. In this study, more that 60% of dust particles were emitted from these areas and less than 10% were emitted from Iran dust sources. About 21% of the deposited dust was deposited in Iran land, while 79% in other parts of the study area. The dust load in the study area was estimated to be more than 0.3 g m-2. The residence time of dust in the atmosphere was 6.2 days over the study area, 7.8 days over Iran and 6 days over other parts. The simulation results exhibit that Iran contribution in emission rate in the study area is much lower than its contribution in dust deposition and residence time and the conclusion of this study can demonstrate the necessity of forming cooperation for suppressing the severe dust events.

NOAA's weather forecasts go hyper-local with next-generation weather

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model NOAA HOME WEATHER OCEANS FISHERIES CHARTING SATELLITES CLIMATE RESEARCH COASTS CAREERS with next-generation weather model New model will help forecasters predict a storm's path, timing and intensity better than ever September 30, 2014 This is a comparison of two weather forecast models looking

(abstract) Application of the GPS Worldwide Network in the Study of Global Ionospheric Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, C. M.; Mannucci, A. J.; Lindqwister, U. J.; Pi, X.; Sparks, L. C.; Rao, A. M.; Wilsion, B. D.; Yuan, D. N.; Reyes, M.

1997-01-01

Ionospheric storm dynamics as a response to the geomagnetic storms is a very complicated global process involving many different mechanisms. Studying ionospheric storms will help us to understand the energy coupling process between the Sun and Earth and possibly also to effectively forecast space weather changes. Such a study requires a worldwide monitoring system. The worldwide GPS network, for the first time, makes near real-time global ionospheric TEC measurements a possibility.