ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE

Science.gov Websites

Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE Marine Forecast greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCTS VIA ALASKA MARINE VHF VOICE NOAA broadcasts offshore forecasts, nearshore forecasts and storm warnings on marine VHF channels

THE NEW ENGLAND AIR QUALITY FORECASTING PILOT PROGRAM: DEVELOPMENT OF AN EVALUATION PROTOCOL AND PERFORMANCE BENCHMARK

EPA Science Inventory

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently sponsored the New England Forecasting Pilot Program to serve as a "test bed" for chemical forecasting by providing all of the elements of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including the development and implemen...

International cooperation in water resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, J.R.; Beall, R.M.; Giusti, E.V.

1979-01-01

Advancements in hydrology proceeded slowly until the late 1800's when new ventures created a surge of interest and accomplishment. Progress waned again until the middle 20th century when an International Hydrological Decade was conceived, eventually receiving wide multinational support from governmental agencies and nongovernmental institutions. Organized by UNESCO, the Decade program was launched January 1, 1965. Participation included 107 nations, six United Nations agencies, and more than a dozen international scientific organizations. The initial program emphasized scientific research, and international cooperation; the second half of the Decade, emphasized technical assistance and technology transfer, largerly through education, training and demonstration. The success of the Decade led to the establishment of the International Hydrological Program, again under the aegis of UNESCO, to continue the work of the Decade indefinitely. The five major program activities, now involving about 90 countries and several international organizations, include: the scientific program, the promotion of education and training, the enhancement of information exchange, support of technical assistance, and the enlargement of regional cooperation. A significant amount of activity related to hydrological data networks and forecasting is carried on in an Operational Hydrology Programme by the WMO, chiefly through its Commission for Hydrology. Other international governmental organizations with a strong interest in water include the UN, the UN Development Programme, the FAO, the WHO, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN Environment Programme, the International Standardization Organization, and developmental institutions such as the World Bank. The specialized interests of researchers outside of the governmental structure, are met through association in various scientific and technical organizations which are world wide in scope and membership. Notwithstanding a sometimes bewildering variety of organizations, there certainly exists, for any nation, group, or individual, a demonstrated mechanism for almost any conceivable form of international cooperation in hydrology and water resources. ?? 1979 Akademische Verlagsgesellschaft.

Great Lakes Maps - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Coastal Forecast System) Waves (GLERL Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System) Ice Cover (GLERL Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System) NOAA's National Weather Service Central Region Headquarters Regional Office 7220

Forecasting Outcomes of Multilateral Negotiations: Computer Programs. Volume 2. Guide for Programmers.

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-10-01

In -Tor DISTRIBUTION LIST: .... National Defense University .. 1 Armed Forces Staff College Department of Defense Computer Institute - . U.S...AND !1I~OR UICTIONARy nO 500 Jmlo-NMAJ RfrAI(LIN, 8) MAJUR , (TITLE(J),.Jz1,6),NMIN WRITE(LOUTo9) MAJOR, (TITLE(J)PJ:1*6) DO0 450 IIzlsJMIN RE A1)(L I N...5XtI4,2Xp6A8) 21 FORfMATC1H1,* LI1ST OF L :TTEREU THEHLS IN NUMUI~CAL OPD)ER*I/) 22 FORMATCI~EAl,6At8). 23 F0RMAT(5X,I5,Als2H**,6A8). 24 FORMIAT (1X,’ MAJUR

An Overview of the National Weather Service National Water Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, B.; Gochis, D.; Clark, E. P.; Cui, Z.; Dugger, A. L.; Feng, X.; Karsten, L. R.; Khan, S.; Kitzmiller, D.; Lee, H. S.; Liu, Y.; McCreight, J. L.; Newman, A. J.; Oubeidillah, A.; Pan, L.; Pham, C.; Salas, F.; Sampson, K. M.; Sood, G.; Wood, A.; Yates, D. N.; Yu, W.

2016-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Water Prediction (OWP), in conjunction with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) recently implemented version 1.0 of the National Water Model (NWM) into operations. This model is an hourly cycling uncoupled analysis and forecast system that provides streamflow for 2.7 million river reaches and other hydrologic information on 1km and 250m grids. It will provide complementary hydrologic guidance at current NWS river forecast locations and significantly expand guidance coverage and type in underserved locations. The core of this system is the NCAR-supported community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro hydrologic model. It ingests forcing from a variety of sources including Multi-Sensor Multi-Radar (MRMS) radar-gauge observed precipitation data and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), Rapid Refresh (RAP), Global Forecast System (GFS) and Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecast data. WRF-Hydro is configured to use the Noah-Multi Parameterization (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate land surface processes. Separate water routing modules perform diffusive wave surface routing and saturated subsurface flow routing on a 250m grid, and Muskingum-Cunge channel routing down National Hydrogaphy Dataset Plus V2 (NHDPlusV2) stream reaches. River analyses and forecasts are provided across a domain encompassing the Continental United States (CONUS) and hydrologically contributing areas, while land surface output is available on a larger domain that extends beyond the CONUS into Canada and Mexico (roughly from latitude 19N to 58N). The system includes an analysis and assimilation configuration along with three forecast configurations. These include a short-range 15 hour deterministic forecast, a medium-Range 10 day deterministic forecast and a long-range 30 day 16-member ensemble forecast. United Sates Geologic Survey (USGS) streamflow observations are assimilated into the analysis and assimilation configuration, and all four configurations benefit from the inclusion of 1,260 reservoirs. An overview of the National Water Model will be given, along with information on ongoing evaluation activities and plans for future NWM enhancements.

Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

1993-01-01

The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

Improving Aerosol and Visibility Forecasting Capabilities Using Current and Future Generations of Satellite Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

improving forecast performance over cloudy regions using the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Aerosol Index; and 2) preparing for the post-MODIS...meteorological fields, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) SW and LW surface characteristics, and an ozone climatology are used as...The primary impact of CALIOP assimilation on the model is the redistribution of mass toward the boundary layer from the free troposphere . For high

Vaccine stockouts around the world: Are essential vaccines always available when needed?

PubMed

Lydon, Patrick; Schreiber, Benjamin; Gasca, Aurelia; Dumolard, Laure; Urfer, Daniela; Senouci, Kamel

2017-04-19

As countries rise to the challenge of implementing the priorities of this "Decade of Vaccine" and their commitments delineated in the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), many continue to face important challenges of securing a continuous supply of essential vaccine for their national immunization programme. This study provides evidence on the incidence of vaccine stockouts in countries, their root causes and their potential impact on service delivery. Vaccine stockout indicators collected from the WHO-UNICEF Joint Reporting Form (JRF) and UNICEF's Vaccine Forecasting Tool were analysed for the years covering the first half of the GVAP (2011 to 2015) and using 2010 as the baseline year. While the JRF collects annual information on national and subnational stockouts by vaccine, the UNICEF Vaccine Forecasting Tool has the advantage of requesting UNICEF procuring countries to report on the reasons underpinning any stockouts. Every year on average, one in every three WHO Member States experiences at least one stockout of at least one vaccine for at least one month. The incidence is most pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa where 38% of countries in this area of the world report national-level stockouts. The vaccines most affected are DTP containing vaccines (often combined with HepB and Hib) and BCG. They account for respectively 43% and 31% of stockout events reported. While national level vaccine stockouts occur in countries of all income groups, middle income countries are the most affected. In 80% of cases, national level stockouts were due to reasons internal to countries. More specifically, 39% of stockouts were attributable to government funding delays, 23% were caused by delays in the procurement processes, and poor forecasting and stock management at country level accounted for an additional 18%. When a national level stockout of vaccines occurs, there is an 89% chance that a subnational stockout will occur at district level. More concerning is that if a district level stockout occurs, this will lead to an interruption of vaccination services in 96% of cases. There continues to be important challenges of ensuring a continuous availability of essential vaccines. The global community, together with countries, urgently need to design effective interventions aimed at reducing the frequency and mitigating the impact of stockouts. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

2017-04-01

Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is configured to take advantage of far-field information on developing tidal surges provided by tide gauges in NW Scotland (the 'external surge'), supported by observations of wind and atmospheric pressure and the predicted astronomical tide at Immingham. Missing data can cause problems with ANN models and a novel aspect of our implementation is the use of multiple redundant inputs (nearby tide gauges that experience a high degree of surge coherence) to synthesise a single external surge input. A similar approach is taken with meteorological forcings, creating an ANN that is resilient against data drop-outs within its input vector. The ANN generates 6 to 24 hour surge forecasts at Immingham with accuracy better than the present UK Storm Tide Warning Service. These can be used to cross-check national forecasts, generate more accurate estimates of likely flood depths, timings and durations and trigger planned responses to severe forecasts. Crucially, this capability can be 'owned' by the port operator, which encourages the development of a shared understanding of storm surge hazards and the challenges of port resilience planning between scientist and stakeholder.

Evaluation of streamflow forecast for the National Water Model of U.S. National Weather Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafieeinasab, A.; McCreight, J. L.; Dugger, A. L.; Gochis, D.; Karsten, L. R.; Zhang, Y.; Cosgrove, B.; Liu, Y.

2016-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM), an implementation of the community WRF-Hydro modeling system, is an operational hydrologic forecasting model for the contiguous United States. The model forecasts distributed hydrologic states and fluxes, including soil moisture, snowpack, ET, and ponded water. In particular, the NWM provides streamflow forecasts at more than 2.7 million river reaches for three forecast ranges: short (15 hr), medium (10 days), and long (30 days). In this study, we verify short and medium range streamflow forecasts in the context of the verification of their respective quantitative precipitation forecasts/forcing (QPF), the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) and the Global Forecast System (GFS). The streamflow evaluation is performed for summer of 2016 at more than 6,000 USGS gauges. Both individual forecasts and forecast lead times are examined. Selected case studies of extreme events aim to provide insight into the quality of the NWM streamflow forecasts. A goal of this comparison is to address how much streamflow bias originates from precipitation forcing bias. To this end, precipitation verification is performed over the contributing areas above (and between assimilated) USGS gauge locations. Precipitation verification is based on the aggregated, blended StageIV/StageII data as the "reference truth". We summarize the skill of the streamflow forecasts, their skill relative to the QPF, and make recommendations for improving NWM forecast skill.

Coordination and Data Management of the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP)

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-09-30

for forcing, validation and assimilation into numerical climate models , and for forecasting weather and ice conditions. TRANSITIONS Using IABP ...Coordination and Data Management of the International Arctic Buoy Programme ( IABP ) Ignatius G. Rigor 1013 NE 40th Street Polar Science Center...analyzed geophysical fields. APPROACH The IABP is a collaboration between 25 different institutions from 8 different countries, which work together

A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use in operations and investment planning over England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.; Cole, Steven J.

2016-04-01

It has been common for flood forecasting systems to be commissioned at a catchment or regional level in response to local priorities and hydrological conditions, leading to variety in system design and model choice. As systems mature and efficiencies of national management are sought, there can be a drive towards system rationalisation, gaining an overview of model performance and consideration of simplification through model-type convergence. Flood forecasting model assessments, whilst overseen at a national level, may be commissioned and managed at a catchment and regional level, take a variety of forms and be large in number. This presents a challenge when an integrated national assessment is required to guide operational use of flood forecasts and plan future investment in flood forecasting models and supporting hydrometric monitoring. This contribution reports on how a nationally consistent framework for flood forecasting model performance has been developed to embrace many past, ongoing and future assessments for local river systems by engineering consultants across England & Wales. The outcome is a Performance Summary for every site model assessed which, on a single page, contains relevant catchment information for context, a selection of overlain forecast and observed hydrographs and a set of performance statistics with associated displays of novel condensed form. One display provides performance comparison with other models that may exist for the site. The performance statistics include skill scores for forecasting events (flow/level threshold crossings) of differing severity/rarity, indicating their probability and likely timing, which have real value in an operational setting. The local models assessed can be of any type and span rainfall-runoff (conceptual and transfer function) and flow routing (hydrological and hydrodynamic) forms. Also accommodated by the framework is the national G2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed hydrological model, providing area-wide coverage across the fluvial rivers of England and Wales, which can be assessed at gauged sites. Thus the performance of the national G2G model forecasts can be directly compared with that from the local models. The Performance Summary for each site model is complemented by a national spatial analysis of model performance stratified by model-type, geographical region and forecast lead-time. The map displays provide an extensive evidence-base that can be interrogated, through a Flood Forecasting Model Performance web portal, to reveal fresh insights into comparative performance across locations, lead-times and models. This work was commissioned by the Environment Agency in partnership with Natural Resources Wales and the Flood Forecasting Centre for England and Wales.

Accuracy of National Weather Service wind-direction forecasts at Macon and Augusta, Georgia

Treesearch

Leonidas G. Lavdas

1997-01-01

National Weather Service wind forecasts and observations over a nine-year period (1985 to 1993) were analyzed to determine the usefulness of these forecasts for forestry smoke management. Data from Macon, GA indicated that forecasts were accurate to within plus or minus 22.5E about 38 percent of the time. When a wider plus or minus 67.5E window was used, accuracy...

ESA SSA Programme in support of Space Weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luntama, J.; Glover, A.; Hilgers, A. M.

2010-12-01

In 2009 European Space Agency (ESA) started a new programme called Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Preparatory Programme. The objective of the programme is to support the European independent utilisation of and access to space research or services. This will be performed through providing timely and quality data, information, services and knowledge regarding the environment, the threats and the sustainable exploitation of the outer space surrounding the planet Earth. SSA serves the implementation of the strategic missions of the European Space Policy based on the peaceful uses of the outer space by all states, by supporting the autonomous capacity to securely and safely operate the critical European space infrastructures. The SSA Preparatory Program will establish the initial elements that will eventually lead into the full deployment of the European SSA services. The SWE Segment of the SSA will provide user services related to the monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, the radiation belts, the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. These services will include near real time information and forecasts about the characteristics of the space environment and predictions of space weather impacts on sensitive spaceborne and ground based infrastructure. The SSA SWE system will also include establishment of a permanent database for analysis, model development and scientific research. These services are will support a wide variety of user domains including spacecraft designers, spacecraft operators, human space flights, users and operators of transionospheric radio links, and space weather research community. The precursor SWE services to be established starting in 2010 will include a selected subset of these services based on pre-existing space weather applications and services in Europe. This paper will present the key characteristics of the SSA SWE system that is currently being designed. The presentation will focus on the system characteristics that support space weather forecasting and the related services. The presentation will show results from the analysis of the existing European assets and the identified development needs in the mid and long term future to ensure forecasting capability for the services requested the by SSA SWE users. The analysis covers the future SSA SWE space segment and the service development needs for the ground segment.

Toward a US National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Current and Planned Capabilities

EPA Science Inventory

As mandated by Congress, NOAA is establishing a US national air quality forecast capability. This capability is being built with EPA, to provide air quality forecast information with enough accuracy and lead-time so that people can take actions to limit harmful effects of poor a...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE PRODUCTS VIA NOAA WEATHER RADIO

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Radio network provides voice broadcasts of local and coastal marine forecasts on a continuous cycle. The forecasts are produced by local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. Coastal stations also broadcast

COMMERCIAL SERVICES PROVIDING MARINE FORECASTS VIA SATELLITE

Science.gov Websites

Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts COMMERCIAL SERVICES PROVIDING MARINE forecast seas? And may present an even greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? COMMERCIAL SERVICES commercial product or service does not imply any endorsement by the National Weather Service as to function

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

SYSTEM CFS CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM NAQFC NAQFC MODEL GEFS GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM HWRF HURRICANE WEATHER RESEARCH and FORECASTING HMON HMON - OPERATIONAL HURRICANE FORECASTING WAVEWATCH III WAVEWATCH III

Medium-range fire weather forecasts

Treesearch

J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

1991-01-01

The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

Space Weather Forecasting and Supporting Research in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pevtsov, A. A.

2017-12-01

In the United State, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For civilian and commercial purposes, space weather forecast is done by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Observational data for modeling come from the network of groundbased observatories funded via various sources, as well as from the instruments on spacecraft. Numerical models used in forecast are developed in framework of individual research projects. The article provides a brief review of current state of space weather-related research and forecasting in the USA.

PM(10) emission forecasting using artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm input variable optimization.

PubMed

Antanasijević, Davor Z; Pocajt, Viktor V; Povrenović, Dragan S; Ristić, Mirjana Đ; Perić-Grujić, Aleksandra A

2013-01-15

This paper describes the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) model for the forecasting of annual PM(10) emissions at the national level, using widely available sustainability and economical/industrial parameters as inputs. The inputs for the model were selected and optimized using a genetic algorithm and the ANN was trained using the following variables: gross domestic product, gross inland energy consumption, incineration of wood, motorization rate, production of paper and paperboard, sawn wood production, production of refined copper, production of aluminum, production of pig iron and production of crude steel. The wide availability of the input parameters used in this model can overcome a lack of data and basic environmental indicators in many countries, which can prevent or seriously impede PM emission forecasting. The model was trained and validated with the data for 26 EU countries for the period from 1999 to 2006. PM(10) emission data, collected through the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution - CLRTAP and the EMEP Programme or as emission estimations by the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model, were obtained from Eurostat. The ANN model has shown very good performance and demonstrated that the forecast of PM(10) emission up to two years can be made successfully and accurately. The mean absolute error for two-year PM(10) emission prediction was only 10%, which is more than three times better than the predictions obtained from the conventional multi-linear regression and principal component regression models that were trained and tested using the same datasets and input variables. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Forecast and Warning Services of the National Weather Service Introduction Quantitative precipitation future which is an active area of research currently. 2) Evaluate HPN performance for forecast periods

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Honolulu, Hawai`i

Science.gov Websites

Locations - Coastal Forecast Kauai Northwest Waters Kauai Windward Waters Kauai Leeward Waters Kauai Channel Oahu Forecast Oahu Surf Forecast Coastal Wind Observations Buoy Reports, and current weather conditions for selected locations tides, sunrise and sunset information Coastal Waters Forecast general weather

Nationwide validation of ensemble streamflow forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. S.; Liu, Y.; Ward, J.; Brown, J.; Maestre, A.; Herr, H.; Fresch, M. A.; Wells, E.; Reed, S. M.; Jones, E.

2017-12-01

The National Weather Service's (NWS) Office of Water Prediction (OWP) recently launched a nationwide effort to verify streamflow forecasts from the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for a majority of forecast locations across the 13 River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Known as the HEFS Baseline Validation (BV), the project involves a joint effort between the OWP and the RFCs. It aims to provide a geographically consistent, statistically robust validation, and a benchmark to guide the operational implementation of the HEFS, inform practical applications, such as impact-based decision support services, and to provide an objective framework for evaluating strategic investments in the HEFS. For the BV, HEFS hindcasts are issued once per day on a 12Z cycle for the period of 1985-2015 with a forecast horizon of 30 days. For the first two weeks, the hindcasts are forced with precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and by resampled climatology for the remaining period. The HEFS-generated ensemble streamflow hindcasts are verified using the Ensemble Verification System. Skill is assessed relative to streamflow hindcasts generated from NWS' current operational system, namely climatology-based Ensemble Streamflow Prediction. In this presentation, we summarize the results and findings to date.

A Performance Evaluation of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability for the Summer of 2007

EPA Science Inventory

This paper provides a performance evaluation of the real-time, CONUS-scale National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), developed collaboratively by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), that supported, in part,...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Products Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS OPERATIONAL VERIFICATION / DIAGNOSTICS PARALLEL VERIFICATION Developmental Air Quality Forecasts and Verification Back to Table of Contents 2. PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICS

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model Configuration /EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS OPERATIONAL VERIFICATION / DIAGNOSTICS PARALLEL VERIFICATION / DIAGNOSTICS Developmental Air Quality Forecasts and Verification Back to Table of Contents 2. PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICS

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, Christopher; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, Andrew

2015-01-01

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, Christopher; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, Andrew

2014-01-01

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

The QWeCI Project: seamlessly linking climate science to society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morse, A. P.; Caminade, C.; Jones, A. E.; MacLeod, D.; Heath, A. E.

2012-04-01

The EU FP7 QWeCI project Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on health in developing countries (www.liv.ac.uk/qweci) has 13 partners with 7 of these in Africa. The geographical focus of the project is in Senegal, Ghana and Malawi. In all three countries the project has a strong scientific dissemination outlook as well as having field based surveillance programmes in Ghana and Senegal to understand more about the local parameters controlling the transmission of malaria and in Senegal of Rift Valley fever. The project has a strong and active climate science activity in using hindcasts of the new System 4 seasonal forecasting system at ECMWF; to further develop the use of monthly to seasonal forecasts from ensemble prediction systems; within project downscaling development; the assessment of decadal ensemble prediction systems; and the development and testing of vector borne disease models for malaria and Rift Valley fever. In parallel with the science programme the project has a large outreach activity involving regular communication and bi-lateral exchanges, science and decision maker focused workshops. In Malawi a long range WiFi network has been established for the dissemination of data. In Senegal where they is a concentration of partners and stakeholders the project is gaining a role as a catalyst for wider health and climate related activity within government departments and national research bodies along with the support and involvement of local communities. Within these wider community discussions we have interactive inputs from African and European scientists who are partners in the project. This paper will show highlights of the work completed so far and give an outline to future development and to encourage a wider user interaction from outside of the current project team and their direct collaborators.

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasts for East-Central Florida Airports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, Winfred C.

2013-01-01

The forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL, (NWS MLB) identified a need to make more accurate lightning forecasts to help alleviate delays due to thunderstorms in the vicinity of several commercial airports in central Florida at which they are responsible for issuing terminal aerodrome forecasts. Such forecasts would also provide safer ground operations around terminals, and would be of value to Center Weather Service Units serving air traffic controllers in Florida. To improve the forecast, the AMU was tasked to develop an objective lightning probability forecast tool for the airports using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The resulting forecast tool is similar to that developed by the AMU to support space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for use by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in previous tasks (Lambert and Wheeler 2005, Lambert 2007). The lightning probability forecasts are valid for the time periods and areas needed by the NWS MLB forecasters in the warm season months, defined in this task as May-September.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carson, K.S.

The presence of overpopulation or unsustainable population growth may place pressure on the food and water supplies of countries in sensitive areas of the world. Severe air or water pollution may place additional pressure on these resources. These pressures may generate both internal and international conflict in these areas as nations struggle to provide for their citizens. Such conflicts may result in United States intervention, either unilaterally, or through the United Nations. Therefore, it is in the interests of the United States to identify potential areas of conflict in order to properly train and allocate forces. The purpose of thismore » research is to forecast the probability of conflict in a nation as a function of it s environmental conditions. Probit, logit and ordered probit models are employed to forecast the probability of a given level of conflict. Data from 95 countries are used to estimate the models. Probability forecasts are generated for these 95 nations. Out-of sample forecasts are generated for an additional 22 nations. These probabilities are then used to rank nations from highest probability of conflict to lowest. The results indicate that the dependence of a nation`s economy on agriculture, the rate of deforestation, and the population density are important variables in forecasting the probability and level of conflict. These results indicate that environmental variables do play a role in generating or exacerbating conflict. It is unclear that the United States military has any direct role in mitigating the environmental conditions that may generate conflict. A more important role for the military is to aid in data gathering to generate better forecasts so that the troops are adequntely prepared when conflicts arises.« less

The meta-Gaussian Bayesian Processor of forecasts and associated preliminary experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fajing; Jiao, Meiyan; Chen, Jing

2013-04-01

Public weather services are trending toward providing users with probabilistic weather forecasts, in place of traditional deterministic forecasts. Probabilistic forecasting techniques are continually being improved to optimize available forecasting information. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF), a new statistical method for probabilistic forecast, can transform a deterministic forecast into a probabilistic forecast according to the historical statistical relationship between observations and forecasts generated by that forecasting system. This technique accounts for the typical forecasting performance of a deterministic forecasting system in quantifying the forecast uncertainty. The meta-Gaussian likelihood model is suitable for a variety of stochastic dependence structures with monotone likelihood ratios. The meta-Gaussian BPF adopting this kind of likelihood model can therefore be applied across many fields, including meteorology and hydrology. The Bayes theorem with two continuous random variables and the normal-linear BPF are briefly introduced. The meta-Gaussian BPF for a continuous predictand using a single predictor is then presented and discussed. The performance of the meta-Gaussian BPF is tested in a preliminary experiment. Control forecasts of daily surface temperature at 0000 UTC at Changsha and Wuhan stations are used as the deterministic forecast data. These control forecasts are taken from ensemble predictions with a 96-h lead time generated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction during January 2008. The results of the experiment show that the meta-Gaussian BPF can transform a deterministic control forecast of surface temperature from any one of the three ensemble predictions into a useful probabilistic forecast of surface temperature. These probabilistic forecasts quantify the uncertainty of the control forecast; accordingly, the performance of the probabilistic forecasts differs based on the source of the underlying deterministic control forecasts.

Evaluating NMME Seasonal Forecast Skill for use in NASA SERVIR Hub Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Roberts, Franklin R.

2013-01-01

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The coupled forecasts have numerous potential applications, both national and international in scope. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in driving applications models in hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush- Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. A prerequisite for seasonal forecast use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture) is bias correction and skill assessment. Efforts to address systematic biases and multi-model combination in support of NASA SERVIR impact modeling requirements will be highlighted. Specifically, quantilequantile mapping for bias correction has been implemented for all archived NMME hindcasts. Both deterministic and probabilistic skill estimates for raw, bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble forecasts as a function of forecast lead will be presented for temperature and precipitation. Complementing this statistical assessment will be case studies of significant events, for example, the ability of the NMME forecasts suite to anticipate the 2010/2011 drought in the Horn of Africa and its relationship to evolving SST patterns.

Air travel forecasting : 1965-1975

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1957-01-01

The forecast presented herein illustrates methods developed by The Port of New York Authority for measuring the market for travel by application of national survey findings to the census : of population and national population projections furnished b...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IITM CFS v2 Forecast for 2017 monsoon : link Experimental short-range GEFS ensemble forecast : link Experimental short-range GFS-T1534(upto 8days) forecast : link

Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

PubMed Central

Zhang, Banglin; Tallapragada, Vijay; Weng, Fuzhong; Liu, Qingfu; Sippel, Jason A.; Ma, Zaizhong; Bender, Morris A.

2016-01-01

The atmosphere−ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels. PMID:27698121

Penile measurements in Tanzanian males: guiding circumcision device design and supply forecasting.

PubMed

Chrouser, Kristin; Bazant, Eva; Jin, Linda; Kileo, Baldwin; Plotkin, Marya; Adamu, Tigistu; Curran, Kelly; Koshuma, Sifuni

2013-08-01

Voluntary medical male circumcision decreases the risk in males of HIV infection through heterosexual intercourse by about 60% in clinical trials and 73% at post-trial followup. In 2007 WHO and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) recommended that countries with a low circumcision rate and high HIV prevalence expand voluntary medical male circumcision programs as part of a national HIV prevention strategy. Devices for adult/adolescent male circumcision could accelerate the pace of scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision. Detailed penile measurements of African males are required for device development and supply size forecasting. Consenting males undergoing voluntary medical male circumcision at 3 health facilities in the Iringa region, Tanzania, underwent measurement of the penile glans, shaft and foreskin. Age, Tanner stage, height and weight were recorded. Measurements were analyzed by age categories. Correlations of penile parameters with height, weight and body mass index were calculated. In 253 Tanzanian males 10 to 47 years old mean ± SD penile length in adults was 11.5 ± 1.6 cm, mean shaft circumference was 8.7 ± 0.9 cm and mean glans circumference was 8.8 ± 0.9 cm. As expected, given the variability of puberty, measurements in younger males varied significantly. Glans circumference highly correlated with height (r = 0.80) and weight (r = 0.81, each p <0.001). Stretched foreskin diameter moderately correlated with height (r = 0.68) and weight (r = 0.71, each p <0.001). Our descriptive study provides penile measurements of males who sought voluntary medical male circumcision services in Iringa, Tanzania. To our knowledge this is the first study in a sub-Saharan African population that provides sufficiently detailed glans and foreskin dimensions to inform voluntary medical male circumcision device development and size forecasting. Copyright © 2013 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Glossary - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Organization Search NWS All NOAA Go Local forecast by "City, St" Search by city. Press enter or Text Bulletins By State By Message Type National Forecast Models Numerical Models Statistical Models

Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

2013-12-01

The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi-model ensemble forecasting, to U.S. Department of Defense use, and creating a superior U.S. global meteorological and oceanographic prediction capability. Forecast verification is an important component of NAEFS and NUOPC. Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited

Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

2012-12-01

The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi-model ensemble forecasting, to U.S. Department of Defense use, and creating a superior U.S. global meteorological and oceanographic prediction capability. Forecast verification is an important component of NAEFS and NUOPC.

Satellite Altimetry based River Forecasting of Transboundary Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, F.; Siddique-E-Akbor, A.; Lee, H.; Shum, C.; Biancamaria, S.

2012-12-01

Forecasting of this transboundary flow in downstream nations however remains notoriously difficult due to the lack of basin-wide in-situ hydrologic measurements or its real-time sharing among nations. In addition, human regulation of upstream flow through diversion projects and dams, make hydrologic models less effective for forecasting on their own. Using the Ganges-Brahmaputra (GB) basin as an example, this study assesses the feasibility of using JASON-2 satellite altimetry for forecasting such transboundary flow at locations further inside the downstream nation of Bangladesh by propagating forecasts derived from upstream (Indian) locations through a hydrodynamic river model. The 5-day forecast of river levels at upstream boundary points inside Bangladesh are used to initialize daily simulation of the hydrodynamic river model and yield the 5-day forecast river level further downstream inside Bangladesh. The forecast river levels are then compared with the 5-day-later "now cast" simulation by the river model based on in-situ river level at the upstream boundary points in Bangladesh. Future directions for satellite-based forecasting of flow are also briefly overviewed.round tracks or virtual stations of JASON-2 (J2) altimeter over the GB basin shown in yellow lines. The locations where the track crosses a river and used for deriving forecasting rating curves is shown with a circle and station number (magenta- Brahmaputra basin; blue - Ganges basin). Circles without a station number represent the broader view of sampling by JASON-2 if all the ground tracks on main stem rivers and neighboring tributaries of Ganges and Brahmaputra are considered.

Performance of an Advanced MOS System in the 1996-97 National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Contest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vislocky, Robert L.; Fritsch, J. Michael

1997-12-01

A prototype advanced model output statistics (MOS) forecast system that was entered in the 1996-97 National Collegiate Weather Forecast Contest is described and its performance compared to that of widely available objective guidance and to contest participants. The prototype system uses an optimal blend of aviation (AVN) and nested grid model (NGM) MOS forecasts, explicit output from the NGM and Eta guidance, and the latest surface weather observations from the forecast site. The forecasts are totally objective and can be generated quickly on a personal computer. Other "objective" forms of guidance tracked in the contest are 1) the consensus forecast (i.e., the average of the forecasts from all of the human participants), 2) the combination of NGM raw output (for precipitation forecasts) and NGM MOS guidance (for temperature forecasts), and 3) the combination of Eta Model raw output (for precipitation forecasts) and AVN MOS guidance (for temperature forecasts).Results show that the advanced MOS system finished in 20th place out of 737 original entrants, or better than approximately 97% of the human forecasters who entered the contest. Moreover, the advanced MOS system was slightly better than consensus (23d place). The fact that an objective forecast system finished ahead of consensus is a significant accomplishment since consensus is traditionally a very formidable "opponent" in forecast competitions. Equally significant is that the advanced MOS system was superior to the traditional guidance products available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Specifically, the combination of NGM raw output and NGM MOS guidance finished in 175th place, and the combination of Eta Model raw output and AVN MOS guidance finished in 266th place. The latter result is most intriguing since the proposed elimination of all NGM products would likely result in a serious degradation of objective products disseminated by NCEP, unless they are replaced with equal or better substitutes. On the other hand, the positive performance of the prototype advanced MOS system shows that it is possible to create a single objective product that is not only superior to currently available objective guidance products, but is also on par with some of the better human forecasters.

Expert and Knowledge Based Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demaid, Adrian; Edwards, Lyndon

1987-01-01

Discusses the nature and current state of knowledge-based systems and expert systems. Describes an expert system from the viewpoints of a computer programmer and an applications expert. Addresses concerns related to materials selection and forecasts future developments in the teaching of materials engineering. (ML)

The Next Level in Automated Solar Flare Forecasting: the EU FLARECAST Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgoulis, M. K.; Bloomfield, D.; Piana, M.; Massone, A. M.; Gallagher, P.; Vilmer, N.; Pariat, E.; Buchlin, E.; Baudin, F.; Csillaghy, A.; Soldati, M.; Sathiapal, H.; Jackson, D.; Alingery, P.; Argoudelis, V.; Benvenuto, F.; Campi, C.; Florios, K.; Gontikakis, C.; Guennou, C.; Guerra, J. A.; Kontogiannis, I.; Latorre, V.; Murray, S.; Park, S. H.; Perasso, A.; Sciacchitano, F.; von Stachelski, S.; Torbica, A.; Vischi, D.

2017-12-01

We attempt an informative description of the Flare Likelihood And Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST) project, European Commission's first large-scale investment to explore the limits of reliability and accuracy achieved for the forecasting of major solar flares. We outline the consortium, top-level objectives and first results of the project, highlighting the diversity and fusion of expertise needed to deliver what was promised. The project's final product, featuring an openly accessible, fully modular and free to download flare forecasting facility will be delivered in early 2018. The project's three objectives, namely, science, research-to-operations and dissemination / communication, are also discussed: in terms of science, we encapsulate our close-to-final assessment on how close (or far) are we from a practically exploitable solar flare forecasting. In terms of R2O, we briefly describe the architecture of the FLARECAST infrastructure that includes rigorous validation for each forecasting step. From the three different communication levers of the project we finally focus on lessons learned from the two-way interaction with the community of stakeholders and governmental organizations. The FLARECAST project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 640216.

Trends in Average Living Children at the Time of Terminal Contraception: A Time Series Analysis Over 27 Years Using ARIMA (p, d, q) Nonseasonal Model.

PubMed

Mumbare, Sachin S; Gosavi, Shriram; Almale, Balaji; Patil, Aruna; Dhakane, Supriya; Kadu, Aniruddha

2014-10-01

India's National Family Welfare Programme is dominated by sterilization, particularly tubectomy. Sterilization, being a terminal method of contraception, decides the final number of children for that couple. Many studies have shown the declining trend in the average number of living children at the time of sterilization over a short period of time. So this study was planned to do time series analysis of the average children at the time of terminal contraception, to do forecasting till 2020 for the same and to compare the rates of change in various subgroups of the population. Data was preprocessed in MS Access 2007 by creating and running SQL queries. After testing stationarity of every series with augmented Dickey-Fuller test, time series analysis and forecasting was done using best-fit Box-Jenkins ARIMA (p, d, q) nonseasonal model. To compare the rates of change of average children in various subgroups, at sterilization, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied. Forecasting showed that the replacement level of 2.1 total fertility rate (TFR) will be achieved in 2018 for couples opting for sterilization. The same will be achieved in 2020, 2016, 2018, and 2019 for rural area, urban area, Hindu couples, and Buddhist couples, respectively. It will not be achieved till 2020 in Muslim couples. Every stratum of population showed the declining trend. The decline for male children and in rural area was significantly faster than the decline for female children and in urban area, respectively. The decline was not significantly different in Hindu, Muslim, and Buddhist couples.

Solar and Wind Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

Science.gov Websites

and Wind Forecasting Solar and Wind Forecasting As solar and wind power become more common system operators. An aerial photo of the National Wind Technology Center's PV arrays. Capabilities value of accurate forecasting Wind power visualization to direct questions and feedback during industry

Forecasting the Impact of Technological Change on Manpower Utilization and Displacement: An Analytic Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fechter, Alan

Obstacles to producing forecasts of the impact of technological change and skill utilization are briefly discussed, and existing models for forecasting manpower requirements are described and analyzed. A survey of current literature reveals a concentration of models for producing long-range national forecasts, but few models for generating…

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar (CFS) HURRICANE WEATHER RESEARCH and FORECASTING (HWRF) GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) NATIONAL Climate Prediction (NCWCP) 5830 University Research Court College Park, MD 20740 Page Author: EMC

15 CFR 946.4 - Menu of services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.4 Menu of services. The following are the basic weather...) Marine Forecasts, Statements, and Warnings (g) Hydrologic Forecasts and Warnings (h) Fire Weather...

15 CFR 946.4 - Menu of services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.4 Menu of services. The following are the basic weather...) Marine Forecasts, Statements, and Warnings (g) Hydrologic Forecasts and Warnings (h) Fire Weather...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

/ VISION | About EMC EMC > NAM > EXPERIMENTAL DATA Home NAM Operational Products HIRESW Operational Products Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS OPERATIONAL VERIFICATION / DIAGNOSTICS PARALLEL VERIFICATION

Current gaps in understanding and predicting space weather: An operations perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murtagh, W. J.

2016-12-01

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), one of the nine National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction, is the Nation's official source for space weather alerts and warnings. Space weather effects the technology that forms the backbone of global economic vitality and national security, including satellite and airline operations, communications networks, and the electric power grid. Many of SWPC's over 48,000 subscribers rely on space weather forecasts for critical decision making. But extraordinary gaps still exist in our ability to meet customer needs for accurate and timely space weather forecasts and warnings. The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy recognizes that it is imperative that we improve the fundamental understanding of space weather and increase the accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of space-weather observations and forecasts in support of the growing demands. In this talk we provide a broad perspective of the key challenges that currently limit the forecaster's ability to better understand and predict space weather. We also examine the impact of these limitations on the end-user community.

The International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigor, I. G.; Ortmeyer, M.

2003-12-01

The Arctic has undergone dramatic changes in weather, climate and environment. It should be noted that many of these changes were first observed and studied using data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP). For example, IABP data were fundamental to Walsh et al. (1996) showing that atmospheric pressure has decreased, Rigor et al. (2000) showing that air temperatures have increased, and to Proshutinsky and Johnson (1997); Steele and Boyd, (1998); Kwok, (2000); and Rigor et al. (2002) showing that the clockwise circulation of sea ice and the ocean has weakened. All these results relied heavily on data from the IABP. In addition to supporting these studies of climate change, the IABP observations are also used to forecast weather and ice conditions, validate satellite retrievals of environmental variables, to force, validate and initialize numerical models. Over 350 papers have been written using data from the IABP. The observations and datasets of the IABP data are one of the cornerstones for environmental forecasting and research in the Arctic.

Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

2011-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

National Maps - Alaska - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings current Forecast for Alaska is produced by the NWS Anchorage Forecast Office. It is updated daily Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and

ESA Earth Observation missions at the service of geoscience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschbacher, Josef

2017-04-01

The intervention will present ESA's Earth Observation programmes and their relevance to geoscience. ESA's Earth observation missions are mainly grouped into three categories: The Sentinel satellites in the context of the European Copernicus Programme, the scientific Earth Explorers and the meteorological missions. Developments, applications and scientific results for the different mission types will be addressed, along with overall trends and boundary conditions. The Earth Explorers, who form the science and research element of ESA's Living Planet Programme, focus on the atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and Earth's interior. The Earth Explorers also aim at learning more about the interactions between these components and the impact that human activity is having on natural Earth processes. The Sentinel missions provide accurate, timely, long term and uninterrupted data to provide key information services, improving the way the environment is managed, and helping to mitigate the effects of climate change. The operational Sentinel satellites can also be exploited for scientific endeavours. Meteorological satellites help to predict the weather and feature the most mature application of Earth observation. Over the last four decades satellites have been radically improving the accuracy of weather forecasts by providing unique and indispensable input data to numerical computation models. In addition, Essential Climate Variables (ECV) are constantly monitored within ESA's Climate Change Initiative in order to create a long-term record of key geophysical parameters. All of these activities can only be carried out in international cooperation. Accordingly, ESA maintains long-standing partnerships with other space agencies and relevant institutions worldwide. In running its Earth observation programmes, ESA responds to societal needs and challenges as well as to requirements resulting from political priorities, such as the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals.

Coping with Changes in International Classifications of Sectors and Occupations: Application in Skills Forecasting. Research Paper No 43

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kvetan, Vladimir, Ed.

2014-01-01

Reliable and consistent time series are essential to any kind of economic forecasting. Skills forecasting needs to combine data from national accounts and labour force surveys, with the pan-European dimension of Cedefop's skills supply and demand forecasts, relying on different international classification standards. Sectoral classification (NACE)…

Test of wind predictions for peak fire-danger stations in Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1957-01-01

Relative accuracy of several wind-speed forecasting methods was tested during the forest fire seasons of 1950 and 1951. For the study, three fire-weather forecast centers of the U. S. Weather Bureau prepared individual station forecasts for 11 peak stations within the national. forests of Oregon and Washington. These spot forecasts were considered...

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate

Science.gov Websites

National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site government Web resources and services. CFS Seasonal Climate Forecasts CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate discontinued after October 2012. This page displays seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast

Overview and Meteorological Validation of the Wind Integration National Dataset toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Draxl, C.; Hodge, B. M.; Clifton, A.

2015-04-13

The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit described in this report fulfills these requirements, and constitutes a state-of-the-art national wind resource data set covering the contiguous United States from 2007 to 2013 for use in a variety of next-generation wind integration analyses and wind power planning. The toolkit is a wind resource data set, wind forecast data set, and wind power production and forecast data set derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. WIND Toolkit data are available online for over 116,000 land-based and 10,000 offshore sites representing existing and potential wind facilities.

The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolfson, N.; Thomasell, A.; Alperson, Z.; Brodrick, H.; Chang, J. T.; Gruber, A.; Ohring, G.

1984-01-01

The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts.

Sol-Terra - AN Operational Space Weather Forecasting Model Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisi, M. M.; Lawrence, G.; Pidgeon, A.; Reid, S.; Hapgood, M. A.; Bogdanova, Y.; Byrne, J.; Marsh, M. S.; Jackson, D.; Gibbs, M.

2015-12-01

The SOL-TERRA project is a collaboration between RHEA Tech, the Met Office, and RAL Space funded by the UK Space Agency. The goal of the SOL-TERRA project is to produce a Roadmap for a future coupled Sun-to-Earth operational space weather forecasting system covering domains from the Sun down to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere and neutral atmosphere. The first stage of SOL-TERRA is underway and involves reviewing current models that could potentially contribute to such a system. Within a given domain, the various space weather models will be assessed how they could contribute to such a coupled system. This will be done both by reviewing peer reviewed papers, and via direct input from the model developers to provide further insight. Once the models have been reviewed then the optimal set of models for use in support of forecast-based SWE modelling will be selected, and a Roadmap for the implementation of an operational forecast-based SWE modelling framework will be prepared. The Roadmap will address the current modelling capability, knowledge gaps and further work required, and also the implementation and maintenance of the overall architecture and environment that the models will operate within. The SOL-TERRA project will engage with external stakeholders in order to ensure independently that the project remains on track to meet its original objectives. A group of key external stakeholders have been invited to provide their domain-specific expertise in reviewing the SOL-TERRA project at critical stages of Roadmap preparation; namely at the Mid-Term Review, and prior to submission of the Final Report. This stakeholder input will ensure that the SOL-TERRA Roadmap will be enhanced directly through the input of modellers and end-users. The overall goal of the SOL-TERRA project is to develop a Roadmap for an operational forecast-based SWE modelling framework with can be implemented within a larger subsequent activity. The SOL-TERRA project is supported within the UK Space Agency's National Space Technology Programme under contract number RP10G0348A03.

A real-time evaluation and demonstration of strategies for 'Over-The-Loop' ensemble streamflow forecasting in US watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Andy; Clark, Elizabeth; Mendoza, Pablo; Nijssen, Bart; Newman, Andy; Clark, Martyn; Nowak, Kenneth; Arnold, Jeffrey

2017-04-01

Many if not most national operational streamflow prediction systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach that require the hands-on-effort of an experienced human forecaster. This approach evolved from the need to correct for long-standing deficiencies in the models and datasets used in forecasting, and the practice often leads to skillful flow predictions despite the use of relatively simple, conceptual models. Yet the 'in-the-loop' forecast process is not reproducible, which limits opportunities to assess and incorporate new techniques systematically, and the effort required to make forecasts in this way is an obstacle to expanding forecast services - e.g., though adding new forecast locations or more frequent forecast updates, running more complex models, or producing forecast and hindcasts that can support verification. In the last decade, the hydrologic forecasting community has begun develop more centralized, 'over-the-loop' systems. The quality of these new forecast products will depend on their ability to leverage research in areas including earth system modeling, parameter estimation, data assimilation, statistical post-processing, weather and climate prediction, verification, and uncertainty estimation through the use of ensembles. Currently, many national operational streamflow forecasting and water management communities have little experience with the strengths and weaknesses of over-the-loop approaches, even as such systems are beginning to be deployed operationally in centers such as ECMWF. There is thus a need both to evaluate these forecasting advances and to demonstrate their potential in a public arena, raising awareness in forecast user communities and development programs alike. To address this need, the US National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the US Army Corps of Engineers, using the NCAR 'System for Hydromet Analysis Research and Prediction Applications' (SHARP) to implement, assess and demonstrate real-time over-the-loop ensemble flow forecasts in a range of US watersheds. The system relies on fully ensemble techniques, including: an 100-member ensemble of meteorological model forcings and an ensemble particle filter data assimilation for initializing watershed states; analog/regression-based downscaling of ensemble weather forecasts from GEFS; and statistical post-processing of ensemble forecast outputs, all of which run in real-time within a workflow managed by ECWMF's ecFlow libraries over large US regional domains. We describe SHARP and present early hindcast and verification results for short to seasonal range streamflow forecasts in a number of US case study watersheds.

Stochastic Simulations of Long-Range Forecasting Models for Less Developed Regions

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-06-01

descriptors—nation national alignment, internal insl; less developed regions of Africa, report describes (1) the regions’ (2) the strategic importance of...imr.T.ARSTFTi?n SPI unty ( I,is*iif it at i 3200.0 (Att ] to End l) Mar 7, 66 *. ( * y. o 1 < n i Forecasting for Planning Strategic Importance...the long range. The forecasts that have been produced so far have been direct inputs into the Joint Long-Range Strategic Study (JLRSS), prepared by

Embedding operational research into national disease control programme: lessons from 10 years of experience in Indonesia

PubMed Central

Mahendradhata, Yodi; Probandari, Ari; Widjanarko, Bagoes; Riono, Pandu; Mustikawati, Dyah; Tiemersma, Edine W.; Alisjahbana, Bachti

2014-01-01

There is growing recognition that operational research (OR) should be embedded into national disease control programmes. However, much of the current OR capacity building schemes are still predominantly driven by international agencies with limited integration into national disease control programmes. We demonstrated that it is possible to achieve a more sustainable capacity building effort across the country by establishing an OR group within the national tuberculosis (TB) control programme in Indonesia. Key challenges identified include long-term financial support, limited number of scientific publications, and difficulties in documenting impact on programmatic performance. External evaluation has expressed concerns in regard to utilisation of OR in policy making. Efforts to address this concern have been introduced recently and led to indications of increased utilisation of research evidence in policy making by the national TB control programme. Embedding OR in national disease control programmes is key in establishing an evidence-based disease control programme. PMID:25361728

INMARSAT-C SafetyNET

Science.gov Websites

Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts INMARSAT-C SafetyNET Marine Forecast Offices greater danger near shore or any shallow waters? NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCTS VIA INMARSAT-C SafetyNET Inmarsat-C SafetyNET is an internationally adopted, automated satellite system for promulgating

COMPUTATIONAL ASPECTS OF THE AIR QUALITY FORECASTING VERSION OF CMAQ (CMAQ-F)

EPA Science Inventory

The air quality forecast version of the Community Modeling Air Quality (CMAQ) model (CMAQ-F) was developed from the public release version of CMAQ (available from http://www.cmascenter.org), and is running operationally at the National Weather Service's National Centers for Envir...

National Weather Service Forecast Office Guam Home

Science.gov Websites

National Alerts Text Current Conditions Observations Satellite Hydrology River & Lake AHPS Radar Imagery AAFB (Guam) AAFB (Guam) Dial up CONUS Radar Forecasts Activity Planner Guam Public Marine Aviation ; Weather Topics: Local Alerts, Current Conditions, Radar, Satellite, Climate, W-GUM.Webmaster@noaa.gov

AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA-CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an Air Quality Forecasting Program that will eventually result in an operational Nationwide Air Quality Forecasting System. The initial pha...

Solar Particle Radiation Storms Forecasting and Analysis within the Framework of the `HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Posner, A.; Malandraki, O.; Nunez, M.; Heber, B.; Labrenz, J.; Kühl, P.; Milas, N.; Tsiropoula, G.; Pavlos, E.

2017-12-01

Two prediction tools that have been developed in the framework of HESPERIA based upon the proven concepts UMASEP and REleASE. Near-relativistic (NR) electrons traveling faster than ions (30 MeV protons have 0.25c) are used to forecast the arrival of protons of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with real-time measurements of NR electrons. The faster electrons arrive at L1 30 to 90 minutes before the slower protons. REleASE (Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration, Posner, 2007) uses this effect to predict the proton flux by utilizing actual electron fluxes and their most recent increases. Through HESPERIA, a clone of REleASE was built in open source programming language. The same forecasting principle was adapted to real-time data from ACE/EPAM. It is shown that HESPERIA REleASE forecasting works with any NR electron flux measurements. >500 MeV solar protons are so energetic that they usually have effects on the ground, producing Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. Within HESPERIA, a predictor of >500 SEP proton events near earth (geostationary orbit) has been developed. In order to predict these events, UMASEP (Núñez, 2011, 2015) has been used. UMASEP makes a lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic (EM) flux with the particle flux near earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then UMASEP issues a SEP prediction. In the case of the prediction of >500 MeV SEP events, the implemented system, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, correlates X-ray flux with differential proton fluxes by GOES, and with fluxes collected by neutron monitor stations around the world. When the correlation estimation and flare surpasses thresholds, a >500 MeV SEP forecast is issued. These findings suggest that a synthesis of the various approaches may improve over the status quo. Both forecasting tools are operational on the HESPERIA server maintained at the National Observatory of Athens (https://www.hesperia.astro.noa.gr/). This project received funding from the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant No 637324.

Performance of the operational high-resolution numerical weather predictions of the Daphne project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegoulias, Ioannis; Pytharoulis, Ioannis; Karacostas, Theodore; Kartsios, Stergios; Kotsopoulos, Stelios; Bampzelis, Dimitrios

2015-04-01

In the framework of the DAPHNE project, the Department of Meteorology and Climatology (http://meteo.geo.auth.gr) of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, utilizes the nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF-ARW) in order to produce high-resolution weather forecasts over Thessaly in central Greece. The aim of the DAPHNE project is to tackle the problem of drought in this area by means of Weather Modification. Cloud seeding assists the convective clouds to produce rain more efficiently or reduce hailstone size in favour of raindrops. The most favourable conditions for such a weather modification program in Thessaly occur in the period from March to October when convective clouds are triggered more frequently. Three model domains, using 2-way telescoping nesting, cover: i) Europe, the Mediterranean sea and northern Africa (D01), ii) Greece (D02) and iii) the wider region of Thessaly (D03; at selected periods) at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km, respectively. This research work intents to describe the atmospheric model setup and analyse its performance during a selected period of the operational phase of the project. The statistical evaluation of the high-resolution operational forecasts is performed using surface observations, gridded fields and radar data. Well established point verification methods combined with novel object based upon these methods, provide in depth analysis of the model skill. Spatial characteristics are adequately captured but a variable time lag between forecast and observation is noted. Acknowledgments: This research work has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" (contract number 11SYN_8_1088 - DAPHNE) in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-2013)

Forecasting Skill

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

Hydrologic Modeling at the National Water Center: Operational Implementation of the WRF-Hydro Model to support National Weather Service Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, B.; Gochis, D.; Clark, E. P.; Cui, Z.; Dugger, A. L.; Fall, G. M.; Feng, X.; Fresch, M. A.; Gourley, J. J.; Khan, S.; Kitzmiller, D.; Lee, H. S.; Liu, Y.; McCreight, J. L.; Newman, A. J.; Oubeidillah, A.; Pan, L.; Pham, C.; Salas, F.; Sampson, K. M.; Smith, M.; Sood, G.; Wood, A.; Yates, D. N.; Yu, W.; Zhang, Y.

2015-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) National Water Center(NWC) is collaborating with the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to implement a first-of-its-kind operational instance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model over the Continental United States (CONUS) and contributing drainage areas on the NWS Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS) supercomputer. The system will provide seamless, high-resolution, continuously cycling forecasts of streamflow and other hydrologic outputs of value from both deterministic- and ensemble-type runs. WRF-Hydro will form the core of the NWC national water modeling strategy, supporting NWS hydrologic forecast operations along with emergency response and water management efforts of partner agencies. Input and output from the system will be comprehensively verified via the NWC Water Resource Evaluation Service. Hydrologic events occur on a wide range of temporal scales, from fast acting flash floods, to long-term flow events impacting water supply. In order to capture this range of events, the initial operational WRF-Hydro configuration will feature 1) hourly analysis runs, 2) short-and medium-range deterministic forecasts out to two day and ten day horizons and 3) long-range ensemble forecasts out to 30 days. All three of these configurations are underpinned by a 1km execution of the NoahMP land surface model, with channel routing taking place on 2.67 million NHDPlusV2 catchments covering the CONUS and contributing areas. Additionally, the short- and medium-range forecasts runs will feature surface and sub-surface routing on a 250m grid, while the hourly analyses will feature this same 250m routing in addition to nudging-based assimilation of US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow observations. A limited number of major reservoirs will be configured within the model to begin to represent the first-order impacts of streamflow regulation.

Ongoing Initiatives to Improve the Quality and Efficiency of Medicine Use within the Public Healthcare System in South Africa; A Preliminary Study

PubMed Central

Meyer, Johanna C.; Schellack, Natalie; Stokes, Jacobus; Lancaster, Ruth; Zeeman, Helecine; Defty, Douglas; Godman, Brian; Steel, Gavin

2017-01-01

Introduction: South Africa has an appreciable burden of both communicable and non-communicable diseases as well as high maternal, neonatal, and child morbidity. In recent years there have been significant strides with improving the public health system, and addressing current inequalities, with the right to health a constitutional provision in South Africa. Initiatives include the introduction of National Health Insurance, programmes to enhance access to medicines for patients with chronic diseases, as well as activities to improve care in hospitals, including improving pharmacovigilance. Consequently, the objective of this paper is to review ongoing initiatives within the public healthcare sector in South Africa and their influence to provide future direction. Method: Principally a structured review of current and planned activities. Results: There have been a number of major activities and initiatives surrounding the availability and access to medicines in the public system in recent years in South Africa. This includes a National Surveillance Centre and an innovative early warning system for the supply of medicines as well as the development of a National Health Care Pricing Authority and initiatives to improve contracting. There have also been developments to improve the supply chain including instigating Medicine Procurement Units in the provinces and enhancing forecasting capabilities. Access to medicines is improving though the instigation of stable chronic disease management initiatives to increase the number of external pick-up points for medicines. There are also ongoing programmes to enhance adherence to medicines as well as enhance adherence to the Standard Treatment Guidelines and the Essential Medicines List with their increasing availability. In addition, there is a movement to enhance the role of health technology assessment in future decision making. Hospital initiatives include increased focus on reducing antimicrobial resistance through instigating stewardship programmes as well as improving adverse drug reaction reporting and associated activities. Conclusion: Overall, there are an appreciable number of ongoing activities within the public healthcare system in South Africa attempting to ensure and sustain universal healthcare. It is too early to assess their impact, which will be the subject of future research. PMID:29163151

Ongoing Initiatives to Improve the Quality and Efficiency of Medicine Use within the Public Healthcare System in South Africa; A Preliminary Study.

PubMed

Meyer, Johanna C; Schellack, Natalie; Stokes, Jacobus; Lancaster, Ruth; Zeeman, Helecine; Defty, Douglas; Godman, Brian; Steel, Gavin

2017-01-01

Introduction: South Africa has an appreciable burden of both communicable and non-communicable diseases as well as high maternal, neonatal, and child morbidity. In recent years there have been significant strides with improving the public health system, and addressing current inequalities, with the right to health a constitutional provision in South Africa. Initiatives include the introduction of National Health Insurance, programmes to enhance access to medicines for patients with chronic diseases, as well as activities to improve care in hospitals, including improving pharmacovigilance. Consequently, the objective of this paper is to review ongoing initiatives within the public healthcare sector in South Africa and their influence to provide future direction. Method: Principally a structured review of current and planned activities. Results: There have been a number of major activities and initiatives surrounding the availability and access to medicines in the public system in recent years in South Africa. This includes a National Surveillance Centre and an innovative early warning system for the supply of medicines as well as the development of a National Health Care Pricing Authority and initiatives to improve contracting. There have also been developments to improve the supply chain including instigating Medicine Procurement Units in the provinces and enhancing forecasting capabilities. Access to medicines is improving though the instigation of stable chronic disease management initiatives to increase the number of external pick-up points for medicines. There are also ongoing programmes to enhance adherence to medicines as well as enhance adherence to the Standard Treatment Guidelines and the Essential Medicines List with their increasing availability. In addition, there is a movement to enhance the role of health technology assessment in future decision making. Hospital initiatives include increased focus on reducing antimicrobial resistance through instigating stewardship programmes as well as improving adverse drug reaction reporting and associated activities. Conclusion: Overall, there are an appreciable number of ongoing activities within the public healthcare system in South Africa attempting to ensure and sustain universal healthcare. It is too early to assess their impact, which will be the subject of future research.

ASSESSMENT OF ETA-CMAQ FORECASTS OF PARTICULATE MATTER DISTRIBUTIONS THROUGH COMPARISONS WITH SURFACE NETWORK AND SPECIALIZED MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

An air-quality forecasting (AQF) system based on the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) Eta model and the U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is used to simulate the distributions of tropospheric ...

National Weather Service Marine Forecasts - FAQ

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding marine coastal areas may be found in Appendix B of the National Ocean Service's Coast Pilot's, volumes 1 Advisory (SCA): An advisory issued by coastal and Great Lakes Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) for areas

Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charba, Jerome P.; Klein, William H.

1980-12-01

All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts for the periods 24-36 h and 36-48 h after 0000 and 1200 GMT. Over the last 13 years, the skill of these forecasts has improved at an average rate of 7.2% per 10-year interval. Over the same period, improvement has been smaller in local PoP skill in the 12-24 h range (2.0% per 10 years) and in the accuracy of "Yea/No" forecasts of measurable precipitation. The overall trend in accuracy of centralized quantitative precipitation forecasts of 0.5 in and 1.0 in has been slightly upward at the 0-24 h range and strongly upward at the 24-48 h range. Most of the improvement in these forecasts has been achieved from the early 1970s to the present. Strong upward accuracy trends in all types of precipitation forecasts within the past eight years are attributed primarily to improvements in numerical and statistical centralized guidance forecasts.The skill and accuracy of both measurable and quantitative precipitation forecasts is 35-55% greater during the cool season than during the warm season. Also, the secular rate of improvement of the cool season precipitation forecasts is 50-110% greater than that of the warm season. This seasonal difference in performance reflects the relative difficulty of forecasting predominantly stratiform precipitation of the cool season and convective precipitation of the warm season.

Data-Driven Disease Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Generous, Nicholas

If disease outbreaks could be forecasted like the weather, communities could set up protective measures to mitigate their impact. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, scientists are improving disease-forecasting mathematical models by using clinical data--as well as internet data sources such as Wikipedia, Twitter, and Google--and coupling it with satellite imagery. The goal is to better understanding how diseases spread and, eventually, forecast disease outbreaks.

Is the economic value of hydrological forecasts related to their quality? Case study of the hydropower sector.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassagnole, Manon; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Thirel, Guillaume; Gailhard, Joël; Garçon, Rémy

2017-04-01

The improvement of a forecasting system and the evaluation of the quality of its forecasts are recurrent steps in operational practice. However, the evaluation of forecast value or forecast usefulness for better decision-making is, to our knowledge, less frequent, even if it might be essential in many sectors such as hydropower and flood warning. In the hydropower sector, forecast value can be quantified by the economic gain obtained with the optimization of operations or reservoir management rules. Several hydropower operational systems use medium-range forecasts (up to 7-10 days ahead) and energy price predictions to optimize hydropower production. Hence, the operation of hydropower systems, including the management of water in reservoirs, is impacted by weather, climate and hydrologic variability as well as extreme events. In order to assess how the quality of hydrometeorological forecasts impact operations, it is essential to first understand if and how operations and management rules are sensitive to input predictions of different quality. This study investigates how 7-day ahead deterministic and ensemble streamflow forecasts of different quality might impact the economic gains of energy production. It is based on a research model developed by Irstea and EDF to investigate issues relevant to the links between quality and value of forecasts in the optimisation of energy production at the short range. Based on streamflow forecasts and pre-defined management constraints, the model defines the best hours (i.e., the hours with high energy prices) to produce electricity. To highlight the link between forecasts quality and their economic value, we built several synthetic ensemble forecasts based on observed streamflow time series. These inputs are generated in a controlled environment in order to obtain forecasts of different quality in terms of accuracy and reliability. These forecasts are used to assess the sensitivity of the decision model to forecast quality. Relationships between forecast quality and economic value are discussed. This work is part of the IMPREX project, a research project supported by the European Commission under the Horizon 2020 Framework programme, with grant No. 641811 (http://www.imprex.eu)

Forecasting sex differences in mortality in high income nations: The contribution of smoking

PubMed Central

Pampel, Fred

2011-01-01

To address the question of whether sex differences in mortality will in the future rise, fall, or stay the same, this study uses relative smoking prevalence among males and females to forecast future changes in relative smoking-attributed mortality. Data on 21 high income nations from 1975 to 2000 and a lag between smoking prevalence and mortality allow forecasts up to 2020. Averaged across nations, the results for logged male/female ratios in smoking mortality reveal equalization of the sex differential. However, continued divergence in non-smoking mortality rates would counter convergence in smoking mortality rates and lead to future increases in the female advantage overall, particularly in nations at late stages of the cigarette epidemic (such as the United States and the United Kingdom). PMID:21874120

Consistency between the global and regional modeling components of CAMS over Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katragkou, Eleni; Akritidis, Dimitrios; Kontos, Serafim; Zanis, Prodromos; Melas, Dimitrios; Engelen, Richard; Plu, Matthieu; Eskes, Henk

2017-04-01

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) is a component of the European Earth Observation programme Copernicus. CAMS consists of two major forecast and analysis systems: i) the CAMS global near-real time service, based on the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (C-IFS), which provides daily analyses and forecasts of reactive trace gases, greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations ii) a regional ensemble (ENS) for European air quality, compiled and disseminated by Météo-France, which consists of seven ensemble members. The boundaries from the regional ensemble members are extracted from the global CAMS forecast product. This work reports on the consistency between the global and regional modeling components of CAMS, and the impact of global CAMS boundary conditions on regional forecasts. The current analysis includes ozone (O3) carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol (PM10/PM2.5) forecasts. The comparison indicates an overall good agreement between the global C-IFS and the regional ENS patterns for O3 and CO, especially above 250m altitude, indicating that the global boundary conditions are efficiently included in the regional ensemble simulations. As expected, differences are found within the PBL, with lower/higher C-IFS O3/CO concentrations over continental Europe with respect to ENS.

Forecasting of Radiation Belts: Results From the PROGRESS Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balikhin, M. A.; Arber, T. D.; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Walker, S. N.

2017-12-01

Forecasting of Radiation Belts: Results from the PROGRESS Project. The overall goal of the PROGRESS project, funded in frame of EU Horizon2020 programme, is to combine first principles based models with the systems science methodologies to achieve reliable forecasts of the geo-space particle radiation environment.The PROGRESS incorporates three themes : The propagation of the solar wind to L1, Forecast of geomagnetic indices, and forecast of fluxes of energetic electrons within the magnetosphere. One of the important aspects of the PROGRESS project is the development of statistical wave models for magnetospheric waves that affect the dynamics of energetic electrons such as lower band chorus, hiss and equatorial noise. The error reduction ratio (ERR) concept has been used to optimise the set of solar wind and geomagnetic parameters for organisation of statistical wave models for these emissions. The resulting sets of parameters and statistical wave models will be presented and discussed. However the ERR analysis also indicates that the combination of solar wind and geomagnetic parameters accounts for only part of the variance of the emissions under investigation (lower band chorus, hiss and equatorial noise). In addition, advances in the forecast of fluxes of energetic electrons, exploiting empirical models and the first principles IMPTAM model achieved by the PROGRESS project is presented.

National Utilization and Forecasting of Ototopical Antibiotics: Medicaid Data Versus "Dr. Google".

PubMed

Crowson, Matthew G; Schulz, Kristine; Tucci, Debara L

2016-09-01

To forecast national Medicaid prescription volumes for common ototopical antibiotics, and correlate prescription volumes with internet user search interest using Google Trends (GT). National United States Medicaid prescription and GT user search database analysis. Quarterly national Medicaid summary drug utilization data and weekly GT search engine data for ciprofloxacin-dexamethasone (CD), ofloxacin (OF), and Cortisporin (CS) ototopicals were obtained from January 2008 to July 2014. Time series analysis was used to assess prescription seasonality, Holt-Winter's method for forecasting quarterly prescription volumes, and Pearson correlations to compare GT and Medicaid data. Medicaid prescription volumes demonstrated sinusoidal seasonality for OF (r = 0.91), CS (r = 0.71), and CD (r = 0.62) with annual peaks in July, August, and September. In 2017, OF was forecasted to be the most widely prescribed ototopical, followed by CD. CS was the least prescribed, and volumes were forecasted to decrease 9.0% by 2017 from 2014. GT user search interest demonstrated analogous sinusoidal seasonality and significant correlations with Medicaid data prescriptions for CD (r = 0.38, p = 0.046), OF (r = 0.74, p < 0.001), CS (r = 0.49, p = 0.008). We found that OF, CD, and CS ototopicals have sinusoidal seasonal variation with Medicaid prescription volume peaks occurring in the summer. After 2012, OF was the most commonly prescribed ototopical, and this trend was forecasted to continue. CS use was forecasted to decrease. Google user search interest in these ototopical agents demonstrated analogous seasonal variation. Analyses of GT for interest in ototopical antibiotics may be useful for health care providers and administrators as a complementary method for assessing healthcare utilization trends.

IMPROVING NATIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTS WITH SATELLITE AEROSOL OBSERVATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality forecasts for major US metropolitan areas have been provided to the public through a partnership between the US Environmental Protection Agency and state and local air agencies since 1997. Recent years have witnessed improvement in forecast skill and expansion of fore...

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Honolulu, Hawai`i

Science.gov Websites

Locations - Coastal Forecast Kauai Northwest Waters Kauai Windward Waters Kauai Leeward Waters Kauai Channel Coastal Wind Observations Buoy Reports, and current weather conditions for selected locations tides , sunrise and sunset information Coastal Waters Forecast general weather overview Tropical information

Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaac, G. A.; Joe, P. I.; Mailhot, J.; Bailey, M.; Bélair, S.; Boudala, F. S.; Brugman, M.; Campos, E.; Carpenter, R. L.; Crawford, R. W.; Cober, S. G.; Denis, B.; Doyle, C.; Reeves, H. D.; Gultepe, I.; Haiden, T.; Heckman, I.; Huang, L. X.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Mo, R.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Smith, T.; Stewart, R. E.; Wang, D.; Wilson, L. J.

2014-01-01

A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0-6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.

The Norwegian forecasting and warning service for rainfall- and snowmelt-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krøgli, Ingeborg K.; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica; Engen, Inger Karin

2018-05-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) have run a national flood forecasting and warning service since 1989. In 2009, the directorate was given the responsibility of also initiating a national forecasting service for rainfall-induced landslides. Both services are part of a political effort to improve flood and landslide risk prevention. The Landslide Forecasting and Warning Service was officially launched in 2013 and is developed as a joint initiative across public agencies between NVE, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET), the Norwegian Public Road Administration (NPRA) and the Norwegian Rail Administration (Bane NOR). The main goal of the service is to reduce economic and human losses caused by landslides. The service performs daily a national landslide hazard assessment describing the expected awareness level at a regional level (i.e. for a county and/or group of municipalities). The service is operative 7 days a week throughout the year. Assessments and updates are published at the warning portal http://www.varsom.no/ at least twice a day, for the three coming days. The service delivers continuous updates on the current situation and future development to national and regional stakeholders and to the general public. The service is run in close cooperation with the flood forecasting service. Both services are based on the five pillars: automatic hydrological and meteorological stations, landslide and flood historical database, hydro-meteorological forecasting models, thresholds or return periods, and a trained group of forecasters. The main components of the service are herein described. A recent evaluation, conducted on the 4 years of operation, shows a rate of over 95 % correct daily assessments. In addition positive feedbacks have been received from users through a questionnaire. The capability of the service to forecast landslides by following the hydro-meteorological conditions is illustrated by an example from autumn 2017. The case shows how the landslide service has developed into a well-functioning system providing useful information, effectively and on time.

Integrating Polar-Orbiting Products into the Forecast Routine for Explosive Cyclogenesis and Extratropical Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folmer, M. J.; Berndt, E.; Malloy, K.; Mazur, K.; Sienkiewicz, J. M.; Phillips, J.; Goldberg, M.

2017-12-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) was added to the Satellite Proving Ground for Marine, Precipitation, and Satellite Analysis in late 2012, just in time to introduce forecasters to the very high-resolution imagery available from the Suomi-National Polar Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument when observing and forecasting Hurricane Sandy (2012). Since that time, more polar products have been introduced to the forecast routines at the National Weather Service (NWS) Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), Weather Prediction Center (WPC), Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). These new data sets have led to research projects at the OPC and TAFB that have specifically been looking into the early identification of stratospheric intrusions that lead to explosive cyclogenesis or extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Currently NOAA Unique CrIS/ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture soundings are available in AWIPS-II as a point-based display. Traditionally soundings are used to anticipate and forecast severe convection, however unique and valuable information can be gained from soundings for other forecasting applications, such as extratropical transition, especially in data sparse regions. Additional research has been conducted to look at how JPSS CrIS/ATMS NUCAPS soundings might help forecasters identify the pre-extratropical transition or pre-explosive cyclogenesis environments, leading to earlier diagnosis and better public advisories. CrIS/ATMS NUCAPS soundings, IASI and NUCAPS ozone products, NOAA G-IV GPS dropwindsondes, the Air Mass RGB, and single water vapor channels have been analyzed to look for the precursors to these high impact events. This presentation seeks to show some early analysis and potential uses of the polar-orbiting datasets to compliment the geostationary imagery and therefore lead to earlier identification and possible warnings.

15 CFR 946.6 - Change in operations-transferring responsibility and moving field offices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.6... Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) or a NEXRAD Weather Service Office (NWSO) that is being established as a future Weather Forecast Office following commissioning of the NEXRAD at the new office; (2...

15 CFR 946.6 - Change in operations-transferring responsibility and moving field offices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.6... Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) or a NEXRAD Weather Service Office (NWSO) that is being established as a future Weather Forecast Office following commissioning of the NEXRAD at the new office; (2...

15 CFR 946.6 - Change in operations-transferring responsibility and moving field offices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.6... Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) or a NEXRAD Weather Service Office (NWSO) that is being established as a future Weather Forecast Office following commissioning of the NEXRAD at the new office; (2...

15 CFR 946.6 - Change in operations-transferring responsibility and moving field offices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.6... Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) or a NEXRAD Weather Service Office (NWSO) that is being established as a future Weather Forecast Office following commissioning of the NEXRAD at the new office; (2...

15 CFR 946.6 - Change in operations-transferring responsibility and moving field offices.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.6... Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) or a NEXRAD Weather Service Office (NWSO) that is being established as a future Weather Forecast Office following commissioning of the NEXRAD at the new office; (2...

ETA-CMAQ MODELING SYSTEM'S CAPABILITY TO PROVIDE PM 2.5 AND AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS FORECAST

EPA Science Inventory

In 2003, NOAA and the U.S. EPA signed a Memorandum of Agreement to work together to develop a National Air Quality Forecasting (AQF) capability. To meet this goal, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS), the Office of Atmospheric Research (OAR) and the U.S. EPA developed and eval...

FHWA travel analysis framework : development of VMT forecasting models for use by the Federal Highway Administration

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-12

This document details the process that the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe) used to develop travel forecasting models for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The purpose of these models is to allow FHWA to forecast future c...

THE EMERGENCE OF NUMERICAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATION

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years the U.S. and other nations have begun programs for short-term local through regional air quality forecasting based upon numerical three-dimensional air quality grid models. These numerical air quality forecast (NAQF) models and systems have been developed and test...

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using the Princeton/U Washington National Hydrologic Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Roundy, J. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Mo, K. C.; Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.

2011-12-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts or floods are a significant source of social and economic damage in many parts of the world. Having sufficient warning of extreme events allows managers to prepare for and reduce the severity of their impacts. A hydrologic forecast system can give seasonal predictions that can be used by mangers to make better decisions; however there is still much uncertainty associated with such a system. Therefore it is important to understand the forecast skill of the system before transitioning to operational usage. Seasonal reforecasts (1982 - 2010) from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (both version 1 (CFS) and version 2 (CFSv2), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks and the European Seasonal Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) system, are assessed for forecasting skill in drought prediction across the U.S., both singularly and as a multi-model system The Princeton/U Washington national hydrologic monitoring and forecast system is being implemented at NCEP/EMC via their Climate Test Bed as the experimental hydrological forecast system to support U.S. operational drought prediction. Using our system, the seasonal forecasts are biased corrected, downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to give seasonal forecasts of hydrologic variables with lead times of up to six months. Results are presented for a number of events, with particular focus on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin in the South Eastern United States, which has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent years and is a pilot study basin for the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The performance of the VIC land surface model is evaluated using observational forcing when compared to observed streamflow. The effectiveness of the forecast system to predict streamflow and soil moisture is evaluated when compared with observed streamflow and modeled soil moisture driven by observed atmospheric forcing. The forecast skills from the dynamical seasonal models (CFSv1, CFSv2, EUROSIP) and CPC are also compared with forecasts based on the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method, which uses initial conditions and historical forcings to generate seasonal forecasts. The skill of the system to predict drought, drought recovery and related hydrological conditions such as low-flows is assessed, along with quantified uncertainty.

Regional Model Nesting Within GFS Daily Forecasts Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Worrell, Ruben

2010-01-01

The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5 grid nested within 1 Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing Period #3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Archived GFS initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions for the simulations from the US National Weather Service, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration were interpolated four times daily. Results for precipitation forecasts are validated against Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates and data from the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which includes rain gauge measurements, and forecasts of circulation are compared to reanalysis 2. Performance statistics for the precipitation forecasts include bias, root-mean-square errors and spatial correlation coefficients. The nested regional model forecasts are compared to GFS forecasts to gauge whether nesting provides additional realistic information. They are also compared to RM3 simulations driven by reanalysis 2, representing high potential skill forecasts, to gauge the sensitivity of results to lateral boundary conditions. Nested RM3/GFS forecasts generate excessive moisture advection toward West Africa, which in turn causes prodigious amounts of model precipitation. This problem is corrected by empirical adjustments in the preparation of lateral boundary conditions and initial conditions. The resulting modified simulations improve on the GFS precipitation forecasts, achieving time-space correlations with TRMM of 0.77 on the first day and 0.63 on the second day. One realtime RM3/GFS precipitation forecast made at and posted by the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger is shown.

A New Multivariate Approach in Generating Ensemble Meteorological Forcings for Hydrological Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajehei, Sepideh; Moradkhani, Hamid

2015-04-01

Producing reliable and accurate hydrologic ensemble forecasts are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including meteorological forcing, initial conditions, model structure, and model parameters. Producing reliable and skillful precipitation ensemble forecasts is one approach to reduce the total uncertainty in hydrological applications. Currently, National Weather Prediction (NWP) models are developing ensemble forecasts for various temporal ranges. It is proven that raw products from NWP models are biased in mean and spread. Given the above state, there is a need for methods that are able to generate reliable ensemble forecasts for hydrological applications. One of the common techniques is to apply statistical procedures in order to generate ensemble forecast from NWP-generated single-value forecasts. The procedure is based on the bivariate probability distribution between the observation and single-value precipitation forecast. However, one of the assumptions of the current method is fitting Gaussian distribution to the marginal distributions of observed and modeled climate variable. Here, we have described and evaluated a Bayesian approach based on Copula functions to develop an ensemble precipitation forecast from the conditional distribution of single-value precipitation forecasts. Copula functions are known as the multivariate joint distribution of univariate marginal distributions, which are presented as an alternative procedure in capturing the uncertainties related to meteorological forcing. Copulas are capable of modeling the joint distribution of two variables with any level of correlation and dependency. This study is conducted over a sub-basin in the Columbia River Basin in USA using the monthly precipitation forecasts from Climate Forecast System (CFS) with 0.5x0.5 Deg. spatial resolution to reproduce the observations. The verification is conducted on a different period and the superiority of the procedure is compared with Ensemble Pre-Processor approach currently used by National Weather Service River Forecast Centers in USA.

77 FR 40936 - 60-Day Notice of Proposed Information Collection: Passport Demand Forecasting Study Phase III

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-11

...: Passport Demand Forecasting Study Phase III ACTION: Notice of request for public comments. SUMMARY: The... of 1995. Title of Information Collection: Passport Demand Forecasting Study Phase III. OMB Control... Consular Affairs/Passport Services (CA/PPT) Form Number: SV-2012-0006. Respondents: A national...

National Weather Service Marine Forecasts

Science.gov Websites

discontinued **NEW** Experimental Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Pacific Ocean Near Mexico Atlantic and . Use Marine Cell Pages Termination Notice (Non Government website) US Coast Guard Mobile App...your safe boating needs in one app Going to the Beach? Check out the Experimental Beach Forecast Page

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE PRODUCTS VIA INTERNET

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Text Forecasts and Products. For convenience, High Seas, Offshore and Coastal marine forecasts are available via the Internet for most U.S. coastal areas. Gridded forecast data for offshore and high seas

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

Science.gov Websites

Tropical Marine Fire Weather Forecast Maps Unified Surface Analysis Climate Climate Prediction Climate forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international air space. Climate Prediction Center monitors and forecasts short-term climate fluctuations and provides information on the

Skill of a global seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Candogan Yossef, Naze; Winsemius, Hessel; Weerts, Albrecht; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

Forecasting of water availability and scarcity is a prerequisite for managing the risks and opportunities caused by the inter-annual variability of streamflow. Reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts are necessary to prepare for an appropriate response in disaster relief, management of hydropower reservoirs, water supply, agriculture and navigation. Seasonal hydrological forecasting on a global scale could be valuable especially for developing regions of the world, where effective hydrological forecasting systems are scarce. In this study, we investigate the forecasting skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. FEWS-World has been setup within the European Commission 7th Framework Programme project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS). Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The assessment in historical simulation mode used a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We assessed the skill of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes in 20 large rivers of the world. This preliminary assessment concluded that the prospects for seasonal forecasting with PCR-GLOBWB or comparable models are positive. However this assessment did not include actual meteorological forecasts. Thus the meteorological forcing errors were not assessed. Yet, in a forecasting setup, the predictive skill of a hydrological forecasting system is affected by errors due to uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode, the model is forced with actual ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. Skill is assessed at 78 stations on large river basins across the globe, for all the months of the year and for lead times up to 6 months. The forecasted discharges are compared with observed monthly streamflow records using the ensemble verification measures Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world.

Evaluation of CMAQ and CAMx Ensemble Air Quality Forecasts during the 2015 MAPS-Seoul Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, E.; Kim, S.; Bae, C.; Kim, H. C.; Kim, B. U.

2015-12-01

The performance of Air quality forecasts during the 2015 MAPS-Seoul Field Campaign was evaluated. An forecast system has been operated to support the campaign's daily aircraft route decisions for airborne measurements to observe long-range transporting plume. We utilized two real-time ensemble systems based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)-Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions (CAMx) modeling framework and WRF-SMOKE- Community Multi_scale Air Quality (CMAQ) framework over northeastern Asia to simulate PM10 concentrations. Global Forecast System (GFS) from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was used to provide meteorological inputs for the forecasts. For an additional set of retrospective simulations, ERA Interim Reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was also utilized to access forecast uncertainties from the meteorological data used. Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) and National Institute of Environment Research (NIER) Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS) emission inventories are used for foreign and domestic emissions, respectively. In the study, we evaluate the CMAQ and CAMx model performance during the campaign by comparing the results to the airborne and surface measurements. Contributions of foreign and domestic emissions are estimated using a brute force method. Analyses on model performance and emissions will be utilized to improve air quality forecasts for the upcoming KORUS-AQ field campaign planned in 2016.

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system simulations will help to develop a seamless integration with the boundary systems in the service-gap area with new insights into our scientific understanding of such complex systems. A visualization system is being developed to allow stake holders and the community to have access to the flood forecasting for their region with sufficient lead time.

Operational early warning of shallow landslides in Norway: Evaluation of landslide forecasts and associated challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahl, Mads-Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica; Krøgli, Ingeborg; Devoli, Graziella

2015-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs a national early warning system (EWS) for shallow landslides in Norway. Slope failures included in the EWS are debris slides, debris flows, debris avalanches and slush flows. The EWS has been operational on national scale since 2013 and consists of (a) quantitative landslide thresholds and daily hydro-meteorological prognosis; (b) daily qualitative expert evaluation of prognosis / additional data in decision to determine warning levels; (c) publication of warning levels through various custom build internet platforms. The effectiveness of an EWS depends on both the quality of forecasts being issued, and the communication of forecasts to the public. In this analysis a preliminary evaluation of landslide forecasts from the Norwegian EWS within the period 2012-2014 is presented. Criteria for categorizing forecasts as correct, missed events or false alarms are discussed and concrete examples of forecasts falling into the latter two categories are presented. The evaluation show a rate of correct forecasts exceeding 90%. However correct forecast categorization is sometimes difficult, particularly due to poorly documented landslide events. Several challenges has to be met in the process of further lowering rates of missed events of false alarms in the EWS. Among others these include better implementation of susceptibility maps in landslide forecasting, more detailed regionalization of hydro-meteorological landslide thresholds, improved prognosis on precipitation, snowmelt and soil water content as well as the build-up of more experience among the people performing landslide forecasting.

NWS Operational Requirements for Ensemble-Based Hydrologic Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, R. K.

2008-12-01

Ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts have been developed and issued by National Weather Service (NWS) staff at River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for many years. Used principally for long-range water supply forecasts, only the uncertainty associated with weather and climate have been traditionally considered. As technology and societal expectations of resource managers increase, the use and desire for risk-based decision support tools has also increased. These tools require forecast information that includes reliable uncertainty estimates across all time and space domains. The development of reliable uncertainty estimates associated with hydrologic forecasts is being actively pursued within the United States and internationally. This presentation will describe the challenges, components, and requirements for operational hydrologic ensemble-based forecasts from the perspective of a NOAA/NWS River Forecast Center.

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

Banteng and Bali cattle in Indonesia: status and forecasts.

PubMed

Purwantara, B; Noor, R R; Andersson, G; Rodriguez-Martinez, H

2012-01-01

Bali cattle still represents 27% of the total cattle population in Indonesia, and it is considered the pillar breed for small farmers. Moreover, it is a breed of evolutionary importance regarding its direct ancestry from Banteng. However, there is a need for the establishment of a rational system for the evaluation of breeding soundness for indigenous Bali bulls to be used as sires for artificial insemination breeding programmes. Moreover, there is a need for cryobanking of well-identified genetic resources pertaining their use in evolutionary research and application as essential germplasm in breeding programmes. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Hawaiian Marine Reports

Science.gov Websites

(PHMO) Kohala (PHKM) South Point (PHWA) Forecasts Activity Planner Hawaii Marine Aviation Fire Weather (PHWA) Forecasts Activity Planner Hawaii Marine Aviation Fire Weather Local Graphics National Graphics

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): A European Answer to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thepaut, Jean-Noel

2016-04-01

Copernicus is the European Commission's flagship Earth observation programme that delivers freely accessible operational data and information services. ECMWF has been entrusted to operate two key parts of the Copernicus programme, which will bring a consistent standard to the measurement, forecasting and prediction of atmospheric conditions and climate change: • The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, CAMS, provides daily forecasts detailing the makeup composition of the atmosphere from the ground up to the stratosphere. • The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (in development) will routinely monitor and analyse more than 20 essential climate variables to build a global picture of our climate, from the past to the future, as well as developing customisable climate indicators for relevant economic sectors, such as energy, water management, agriculture, insurance, health…. C3S has now taken off and a number of proof-of-concept sectoral climate services have been initiated. This paper will focus on the description and expected outcome of these proof-of-concept activities as well as the definition of a roadmap towards a fully operational European Climate Change Service.

Effect of energy-efficient measures in building construction on indoor radon in Russia.

PubMed

Vasilyev, A; Yarmoshenko, I

2017-04-28

The effect of implementation of energy-efficient measures in building construction was studied. Analysis includes study of indoor radon in energy-efficient buildings in Ekaterinburg, Russia, and results of radiation measurements in 83 regions of Russia conducted within the regional programmes. The forecast distribution of radon concentration in Ekaterinburg was built with regard to the city development programme. With Ekaterinburg taken as representative case, forecast distribution of radon concentration in Russia in 2030 was built. In comparison with 2000, average radon concentration increases by a factor of 1.42 in 2030 year; percentage above the reference level 300 Bq/m3 increases by a factor of 4 in 2030 year. It is necessary to perceive such an increase with all seriousness and to prepare appropriate measures for optimization of protection against indoor radon. Despite the high uncertainty, reconstructed distribution of radon concentration can be applied for justification of measures to be incorporated in the radon mitigation strategy. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Validation of the CME Geomagnetic Forecast Alerts Under the COMESEP Alert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbović, Mateja; Srivastava, Nandita; Rao, Yamini K.; Vršnak, Bojan; Devos, Andy; Rodriguez, Luciano

2017-08-01

Under the European Union 7th Framework Programme (EU FP7) project Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP, http://comesep.aeronomy.be), an automated space weather alert system has been developed to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. The COMESEP alert system uses the automated detection tool called Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) to detect potentially threatening CMEs, a drag-based model (DBM) to predict their arrival, and a CME geoeffectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus detects a halo or partial halo CME and issues an alert, the DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and the CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level. The geomagnetic risk level is calculated based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geoeffectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic storm duration. We present the evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with the COMESEP alert system based on a study of geoeffective CMEs observed during 2014. The validation of the forecast tool is made by comparing the forecasts with observations. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecasts (without human intervention) against the forecasts with human intervention using advanced versions of the DBM and CGFT (independent tools available at the Hvar Observatory website, http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The results indicate that the success rate of the forecast in its current form is unacceptably low for a realistic operation system. Human intervention improves the forecast, but the false-alarm rate remains unacceptably high. We discuss these results and their implications for possible improvement of the COMESEP alert system.

Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model

PubMed Central

Aichholzer, Julian; Willmann, Johanna

2014-01-01

Forecasting the outcomes of national elections has become established practice in several democracies. In the present paper, we develop an economic voting model for forecasting the future success of the Austrian ‘grand coalition’, i.e., the joint electoral success of the two mainstream parties SPOE and OEVP, at the 2013 Austrian Parliamentary Elections. Our main argument is that the success of both parties is strongly tied to the accomplishments of the Austrian system of corporatism, that is, the Social Partnership (Sozialpartnerschaft), in providing economic prosperity. Using data from Austrian national elections between 1953 and 2008 (n=18), we rely on the following predictors in our forecasting model: (1) unemployment rates, (2) previous incumbency of the two parties, and (3) dealignment over time. We conclude that, in general, the two mainstream parties benefit considerably from low unemployment rates, and are weakened whenever they have previously formed a coalition government. Further, we show that they have gradually been losing a good share of their voter basis over recent decades. PMID:26339109

Verification of a New NOAA/NSIDC Passive Microwave Sea-Ice Concentration Climate Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meier, Walter N.; Peng, Ge; Scott, Donna J.; Savoie, Matt H.

2014-01-01

A new satellite-based passive microwave sea-ice concentration product developed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Climate Data Record (CDR) programme is evaluated via comparison with other passive microwave-derived estimates. The new product leverages two well-established concentration algorithms, known as the NASA Team and Bootstrap, both developed at and produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The sea ice estimates compare well with similar GSFC products while also fulfilling all NOAA CDR initial operation capability (IOC) requirements, including (1) self describing file format, (2) ISO 19115-2 compliant collection-level metadata,(3) Climate and Forecast (CF) compliant file-level metadata, (4) grid-cell level metadata (data quality fields), (5) fully automated and reproducible processing and (6) open online access to full documentation with version control, including source code and an algorithm theoretical basic document. The primary limitations of the GSFC products are lack of metadata and use of untracked manual corrections to the output fields. Smaller differences occur from minor variations in processing methods by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (for the CDR fields) and NASA (for the GSFC fields). The CDR concentrations do have some differences from the constituent GSFC concentrations, but trends and variability are not substantially different.

The Rise of Complexity in Flood Forecasting: Opportunities, Challenges and Tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Clark, M. P.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Operational flood forecasting is currently undergoing a major transformation. Most national flood forecasting services have relied for decades on lumped, highly calibrated conceptual hydrological models running on local office computing resources, providing deterministic streamflow predictions at gauged river locations that are important to stakeholders and emergency managers. A variety of recent technological advances now make it possible to run complex, high-to-hyper-resolution models for operational hydrologic prediction over large domains, and the US National Weather Service is now attempting to use hyper-resolution models to create new forecast services and products. Yet other `increased-complexity' forecasting strategies also exist that pursue different tradeoffs between model complexity (i.e., spatial resolution, physics) and streamflow forecast system objectives. There is currently a pressing need for a greater understanding in the hydrology community of the opportunities, challenges and tradeoffs associated with these different forecasting approaches, and for a greater participation by the hydrology community in evaluating, guiding and implementing these approaches. Intermediate-resolution forecast systems, for instance, use distributed land surface model (LSM) physics but retain the agility to deploy ensemble methods (including hydrologic data assimilation and hindcast-based post-processing). Fully coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, another example, use still coarser LSMs to produce ensemble streamflow predictions either at the model scale or after sub-grid scale runoff routing. Based on the direct experience of the authors and colleagues in research and operational forecasting, this presentation describes examples of different streamflow forecast paradigms, from the traditional to the recent hyper-resolution, to illustrate the range of choices facing forecast system developers. We also discuss the degree to which the strengths and weaknesses of each strategy map onto the requirements for different types of forecasting services (e.g., flash flooding, river flooding, seasonal water supply prediction).

Space-based societal applications—Relevance in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaskaranarayana, A.; Varadarajan, C.; Hegde, V. S.

2009-11-01

Space technology has the vast potential for addressing a variety of societal problems of the developing countries, particularly in the areas of communication, education and health sectors, land and water resources management, disaster management and weather forecasting. Both remote sensing and communication technologies can be used to achieve this goal. With its primary emphasis on application of space technology, on an end-to-end basis, towards national development, the Indian Space Programme has distinguished itself as one of the most cost-effective and development-oriented space programmes in the world. Developing nations are faced with the enormous task of carrying development-oriented education to the masses at the lower strata of their societies. One important feature of these populations is their large number and the spread over vast and remote areas of these nations, making the reaching out to them a difficult task. Satellite communication (Satcom) technology offers the unique capability of simultaneously reaching out to very large numbers, spread over vast areas, including the remote corners of the country. It is a strong tool to support development education. India has been amongst the first few nations to explore and put to use the Satcom technology for education and development-oriented services to the rural masses. Most of the developing countries have inadequate infrastructure to provide proper medical care to the rural population. Availability of specialist doctors in rural areas is a major bottleneck. Use of Satcom and information technology to connect rural clinics to urban hospitals through telemedicine systems is one of the solutions; and India has embarked upon an effective satellite-based telemedicine programme. Space technology is also useful in disaster warning and management related applications. Use of satellite systems and beacons for locating the distressed units on land, sea or air is well known to us. Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is already a part of the International initiative called Satellite Aided Search and Rescue System. The programme to set up satellite-based Village Resource Centres (VRCs) across India, for providing a variety of services relevant to the rural communities, is also a unique societal application of space technology. The VRCs are envisaged as single window delivery mechanism for a variety of space-based products and services, such as tele-education; telemedicine; information on natural resources for planning and development at local level; interactive advisories on agriculture, fisheries, land and water resources management, livestock management, etc.; interactive vocational training towards alternative livelihood; e-governance; weather information; etc. This paper describes the various possibilities and potentials of Satcom and Remote Sensing technologies for societal applications. The initiatives taken by Indian Space Research Organisation in this direction are highlighted.

A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Victoria A.; Davies, Helen N.; Kay, Alison L.; Brookshaw, Anca; Scaife, Adam A.

2017-09-01

Skilful winter seasonal predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and northern Europe have now been demonstrated and the potential for seasonal hydrological forecasting in the UK is now being explored. One of the techniques being used combines seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by operational weather forecast systems with hydrological modelling tools to provide estimates of seasonal mean river flows up to a few months ahead. The work presented here shows how spatial information contained in a distributed hydrological model typically requiring high-resolution (daily or better) rainfall data can be used to provide an initial condition for a much simpler forecast model tailored to use low-resolution monthly rainfall forecasts. Rainfall forecasts (hindcasts) from the GloSea5 model (1996 to 2009) are used to provide the first assessment of skill in these national-scale flow forecasts. The skill in the combined modelling system is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and compared to what might be achieved using other approaches such as use of an ensemble of historical rainfall in a hydrological model, or a simple flow persistence forecast. The analysis indicates that only limited forecast skill is achievable for Spring and Summer seasonal hydrological forecasts; however, Autumn and Winter flows can be reasonably well forecast using (ensemble mean) rainfall forecasts based on either GloSea5 forecasts or historical rainfall (the preferred type of forecast depends on the region). Flow forecasts using ensemble mean GloSea5 rainfall perform most consistently well across Britain, and provide the most skilful forecasts overall at the 3-month lead time. Much of the skill (64 %) in the 1-month ahead seasonal flow forecasts can be attributed to the hydrological initial condition (particularly in regions with a significant groundwater contribution to flows), whereas for the 3-month ahead lead time, GloSea5 forecasts account for ˜ 70 % of the forecast skill (mostly in areas of high rainfall to the north and west) and only 30 % of the skill arises from hydrological memory (typically groundwater-dominated areas). Given the high spatial heterogeneity in typical patterns of UK rainfall and evaporation, future development of skilful spatially distributed seasonal forecasts could lead to substantial improvements in seasonal flow forecast capability, potentially benefitting practitioners interested in predicting hydrological extremes, not only in the UK but also across Europe.

The development of the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, Phil; Kennewell, John A.; Cole, David

2018-05-01

The Ionospheric Prediction Service (IPS) was formed in 1947 to provide monthly prediction services for high frequency (HF) radio, in particular to support HF communications with the United Kingdom. It was quickly recognized that to be effective such a service also had to provide advice when ionospheric storms prevented HF communications from taking place. With the advent of the International Geophysical Year (IGY), short-term forecasts were also required for research programmes and the task of supplying the Australian input to these was given to Frank Cook, of the IPS, while Jack Turner, also of the IPS, supervised the generation of ionospheric maps to support high latitude HF communications. These two important IGY activities formed the platform on which all future IPS services would be built. This paper reviews the development of the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC), which arose from these early origins.

Assessing the viability of `over-the-loop' real-time short-to-medium range ensemble streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Clark, E.; Mendoza, P. A.; Nijssen, B.; Newman, A. J.; Clark, M. P.; Arnold, J.; Nowak, K. C.

2016-12-01

Many if not most national operational short-to-medium range streamflow prediction systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach in which some parts of the forecast workflow are automated, but others require the hands-on-effort of an experienced human forecaster. This approach evolved out of the need to correct for deficiencies in the models and datasets that were available for forecasting, and often leads to skillful predictions despite the use of relatively simple, conceptual models. On the other hand, the process is not reproducible, which limits opportunities to assess and incorporate process variations, and the effort required to make forecasts in this way is an obstacle to expanding forecast services - e.g., though adding new forecast locations or more frequent forecast updates, running more complex models, or producing forecast ensembles and hindcasts that can support verification. In the last decade, the hydrologic forecasting community has begun to develop more centralized, `over-the-loop' systems. The quality of these new forecast products will depend on their ability to leverage research in areas including earth system modeling, parameter estimation, data assimilation, statistical post-processing, weather and climate prediction, verification, and uncertainty estimation through the use of ensembles. Currently, the operational streamflow forecasting and water management communities have little experience with the strengths and weaknesses of over-the-loop approaches, even as the systems are being rolled out in major operational forecasting centers. There is thus a need both to evaluate these forecasting advances and to demonstrate their potential in a public arena, raising awareness in forecast user communities and development programs alike. To address this need, the National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the US Army Corps of Engineers, using the NCAR 'System for Hydromet Analysis, Research, and Prediction' (SHARP) to implement, assess and demonstrate real-time over-the-loop forecasts. We present early hindcast and verification results from SHARP for short to medium range streamflow forecasts in a number of US case study watersheds.

Geography Department Weather Forecasting Contests in the 21st Century

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skeeter, Brent R.

2006-01-01

The benefits of weather forecasting contests within geography departments are reaffirmed. The greatly increased ease of conducting such contests in the new millennium is stressed. Some of the specifics of the forecasting contest at Salisbury University are discussed. In addition, the advantages of a departmental contest over a national contest are…

A Comparison of Conventional Linear Regression Methods and Neural Networks for Forecasting Educational Spending.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Bruce D.; Richards, Craig E.

1999-01-01

Applies neural network methods for forecasting 1991-95 per-pupil expenditures in U.S. public elementary and secondary schools. Forecasting models included the National Center for Education Statistics' multivariate regression model and three neural architectures. Regarding prediction accuracy, neural network results were comparable or superior to…

Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA

Treesearch

J. Roads; F. Fujioka; S. Chen; R. Burgan

2005-01-01

The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center has been making experimental, near-real-time, weekly to seasonal fire danger forecasts for the past 5 years. US fire danger forecasts and validations are based on standard indices from the National Fire Danger Rating System (DFDRS), which include the ignition component (IC), energy release component (ER), burning...

Configuring a Graphical User Interface for Managing Local HYSPLIT Model Runs Through AWIPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, mark M.; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; VanSpeybroeck, Kurt M.

2009-01-01

Responding to incidents involving the release of harmful airborne pollutants is a continual challenge for Weather Forecast Offices in the National Weather Service. When such incidents occur, current protocol recommends forecaster-initiated requests of NOAA's Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model output through the National Centers of Environmental Prediction to obtain critical dispersion guidance. Individual requests are submitted manually through a secured web site, with desired multiple requests submitted in sequence, for the purpose of obtaining useful trajectory and concentration forecasts associated with the significant release of harmful chemical gases, radiation, wildfire smoke, etc., into local the atmosphere. To help manage the local HYSPLIT for both routine and emergency use, a graphical user interface was designed for operational efficiency. The interface allows forecasters to quickly determine the current HYSPLIT configuration for the list of predefined sites (e.g., fixed sites and floating sites), and to make any necessary adjustments to key parameters such as Input Model. Number of Forecast Hours, etc. When using the interface, forecasters will obtain desired output more confidently and without the danger of corrupting essential configuration files.

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Collaborative Model for Accelerating Research into Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Lapenta, W.; Jedlovec, G.; Dodge, J.; Bradshaw, T.

2003-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama was created to accelerate the infusion of NASA earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The principal focus of experimental products is on the regional scale with an emphasis on forecast improvements on a time scale of 0-24 hours. The SPoRT Center research is aligned with the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues ranging from convective initiation to 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The SPoRT Center, together with its other interagency partners, universities, and the NASA/NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, provides a means and a process to effectively transition NASA Earth Science Enterprise observations and technology to National Weather Service operations and decision makers at both the global/national and regional scales. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future.

System designed for issuing landslide alerts in the San Francisco Bay area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finley, D.

1987-01-01

A system for forecasting landslides during major storms has been developed for the San Francisco Bay area by the U.S Geological Survey and was successfully tested during heavy storms in the bay area during February 1986. Based on the forecasts provided by the USGS, the National Weather Service (NWS) included landslide warnings in its regular weather forecasts or in special weather statements transmitted to local radio and television stations and other news media. USGS scientists said the landslide forecasting and warning system for the San Francisco Bay area can be used as a prototype in developing similar systems for other parts of the Nation susceptible to landsliding. Studies show damage from landslides in the United States averages an estimated $1.5 billion per year. 

A comparison of GLAS SAT and NMC high resolution NOSAT forecasts from 19 and 11 February 1976

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.

1979-01-01

A subjective comparison of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) and the National Meteorological Center (NMC) high resolution model forecasts is presented. Two cases where NMC's operational model in 1976 had serious difficulties in forecasting for the United States were examined. For each of the cases, the GLAS model forecasts from initial conditions which included satellite sounding data were compared directly to the NMC higher resolution model forecasts, from initial conditions which excluded the satellite data. The comparison showed that the GLAS satellite forecasts significantly improved upon the current NMC operational model's predictions in both cases.

The importance of timely information in national cancer screening programmes.

PubMed

Droljc, Anze; Grbec, Tomaz; Orel, Andrej

2009-01-01

The Ministry of Health of Slovenia decided to support the introduction of two new organised screening programmes for cancer, one for breast and the other for colon cancer in 2005. This was an addition to the first, already running, programme for cervical cancer. Two of them are entrusted to the Institute of Oncology while the National CINDI programme takes care of the third one. Besides connection to some external public databases, cancer screening programmes require national Cancer Registry data. High quality and user friendly information support for citizens and medical professionals following doctrinal requirements and possible changes is a must.

About the National Forecast Chart

Science.gov Websites

General Weather WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for coverage, and weather type from the NWS NDFD Weather Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Weather Prediction

Developing Multi-Agency Teams: Implications of a National Programme Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simkins, Tim; Garrick, Ros

2012-01-01

This paper explores the factors which influence the effectiveness of formal development programmes targeted at multi-agency teams in children's services. It draws on two studies of the National College for School Leadership's Multi-Agency Teams Development programme, reporting key characteristics of the programme, short-term outcomes in terms of…

Nutrition advocacy and national development: the PROFILES programme and its application.

PubMed

Burkhalter, B R; Abel, E; Aguayo, V; Diene, S M; Parlato, M B; Ross, J S

1999-01-01

Investment in nutritional programmes can contribute to economic growth and is cost-effective in improving child survival and development. In order to communicate this to decision-makers, the PROFILES nutrition advocacy and policy development programme was applied in certain developing countries. Effective advocacy is necessary to generate financial and political support for scaling up from small pilot projects and maintaining successful national programmes. The programme uses scientific knowledge to estimate development indicators such as mortality, morbidity, fertility, school performance and labour productivity from the size and nutritional condition of populations. Changes in nutritional condition are estimated from the costs, coverage and effectiveness of proposed programmes. In Bangladesh this approach helped to gain approval and funding for a major nutrition programme. PROFILES helped to promote the nutrition component of an early childhood development programme in the Philippines, and to make nutrition a top priority in Ghana's new national child survival strategy. The application of PROFILES in these and other countries has been supported by the United States Agency for International Development, the United Nations Children's Fund, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Micronutrient Initiative and other bodies.

Sustainability of recurrent expenditure on public social welfare programmes: expenditure analysis of the free maternal care programme of the Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme.

PubMed

Ankrah Odame, Emmanuel; Akweongo, Patricia; Yankah, Ben; Asenso-Boadi, Francis; Agyepong, Irene

2014-05-01

Sustainability of public social welfare programmes has long been of concern in development circles. An important aspect of sustainability is the ability to sustain the recurrent financial costs of programmes. A free maternal care programme (FMCP) was launched under the Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in 2008 with a start-up grant from the British Government. This article examines claims expenditure under the programme and the implications for the financial sustainability of the programme, and the lessons for donor and public financing of social welfare programmes. Records of reimbursement claims for services and medicines by women benefitting from the policy in participating facilities in one sub-metropolis in Ghana were analysed to gain an understanding of the expenditure on this programme at facility level. National level financial inflow and outflow (expenditure) data of the NHIS, related to implementation of this policy for 2008 and 2009, were reviewed to put the facility-based data in the national perspective. A total of US$936 450.94 was spent in 2009 by the scheme on FMCP in the sub-metropolis. The NHIS expenditure on the programme for the entire country in 2009 was US$49.25 million, exceeding the British grant of US$10.00 million given for that year. Subsequently, the programme has been entirely financed by the National Health Insurance Fund. The rapidly increasing, recurrent demands on this fund from the maternal delivery exemption programme-without a commensurate growth on the amounts generated annually-is an increasing threat to the sustainability of the fund. Provision of donor start-up funding for programmes with high recurrent expenditures, under the expectation that government will take over and sustain the programme, must be accompanied by clear long-term analysis and planning as to how government will sustain the programme.

The expansion and performance of national newborn screening programmes for cystic fibrosis in Europe.

PubMed

Barben, Jürg; Castellani, Carlo; Dankert-Roelse, Jeannette; Gartner, Silvia; Kashirskaya, Nataliya; Linnane, Barry; Mayell, Sarah; Munck, Anne; Sands, Dorota; Sommerburg, Olaf; Pybus, Simon; Winters, Victoria; Southern, Kevin W

2017-03-01

Newborn screening (NBS) for cystic fibrosis (CF) is a well-established public health strategy with international standards. The aim of this study was to provide an update on NBS for CF in Europe and assess performance against the standards. Questionnaires were sent to key workers in each European country. In 2016, there were 17 national programmes, 4 countries with regional programmes and 25 countries not screening in Europe. All national programmes employed different protocols, with IRT-DNA the most common strategy. Five countries were not using DNA analysis. In addition, the processing and structure of programmes varied considerably. Most programmes were achieving the ECFS standards with respect to timeliness, but were less successful with respect to sensitivity and specificity. There has been a steady increase in national CF NBS programmes across Europe with variable strategies and outcomes that reflect the different approaches. Copyright © 2016 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garner, Gregory G.; Thompson, Anne M.

2013-01-01

An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for

Knowledge and perceptions of national and provincial tuberculosis control programme managers in Pakistan about the WHO Stop TB strategy: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Khan, Wasiq Mehmood; Smith, Helen; Qadeer, Ejaz; Hassounah, Sondus

2016-01-01

To understand how national and provincial tuberculosis programme managers in Pakistan perceive and engage with the Stop TB strategy, its strengths, weaknesses and their experience in its implementation. National and provincial tuberculosis programme managers play an important role in effective implementation of the Stop TB strategy. A qualitative interview study was conducted with 10 national and provincial tuberculosis programme managers to understand how they perceive and engage with the Stop TB strategy, its strengths, weaknesses and their experience in its implementation. Managers were selected purposively; 10 managers were interviewed (six national staff and four from provincial level). National and provincial tuberculosis programme managers in Pakistan. Managers were selected purposively; 10 managers were interviewed (six national staff and four from provincial level). National and provincial tuberculosis programmes in Pakistan. 1. Knowledge and perceptions of national and provincial tuberculosis programme managers about the Stop TB strategy 2. Progress in implementing the strategy in Pakistan 3. Significant success factors 4. Significant implementation challenges 5. Lessons learnt to scale up successful implementation. The managers reported that most progress had been made in extending DOTS, health systems strengthening, public -private mixed interventions, MDR-TB care and TB/HIV care. The four factors that contributed significantly to progress were the availability of DOTS services, the public-private partnership approach, comprehensive guidance for TB control and government and donor commitment to TB control. This study identified three main challenges as perceived by national and provincial tuberculosis programme managers in terms of implementing the Stop TB strategy: 1. Inadequate political commitment, 2. Issue pertaining to prioritisation of certain components in the TB strategy over others due to external influences and 3. Limitations in the overall health system. To improve the tuberculosis control programme in the country political commitment needs to be enhanced and public -private partnerships increased. This can be done through government prioritisation of TB control at both national and provincial levels; donor-funded components should not receive undue attention; and partnerships with the private health sector, health institutions not yet covered by DOTS services, non-governmental organisations and patient coalitions should be increased.

Slovak Flood Forecasting Service at the National and International Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leskova, Danica; Mikuličková, Michaela

2017-04-01

National Flood Forecasting Service is based on national legislation /Slovak legislation/ so that it could deal with the flood situation at the local level. Information about international rivers, e.g.: Danube, March (Morava), Uh, and Latorica are received on the basis of bilateral agreements. An important supplementary information is the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). In this presentation a forecasting system POVAPSYS, which has been in Slovakia in use since 2016, is also shown. The Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) is a partner of EFAS, but simultaneously is a part of consortium of the EFAS Dissemination Centre, and its role is to analyze results of models, to analyze hydrometeorological situation, to disseminate information, and to send flood notifications to the EFAS partners. Both systems will be presented.

Adapting National Water Model Forecast Data to Local Hyper-Resolution H&H Models During Hurricane Irma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singhofen, P.

2017-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM) is a remarkable undertaking. The foundation of the NWM is a 1 square kilometer grid which is used for near real-time modeling and flood forecasting of most rivers and streams in the contiguous United States. However, the NWM falls short in highly urbanized areas with complex drainage infrastructure. To overcome these shortcomings, the presenter proposes to leverage existing local hyper-resolution H&H models and adapt the NWM forcing data to them. Gridded near real-time rainfall, short range forecasts (18-hour) and medium range forecasts (10-day) during Hurricane Irma are applied to numerous detailed H&H models in highly urbanized areas of the State of Florida. Coastal and inland models are evaluated. Comparisons of near real-time rainfall data are made with observed gaged data and the ability to predict flooding in advance based on forecast data is evaluated. Preliminary findings indicate that the near real-time rainfall data is consistently and significantly lower than observed data. The forecast data is more promising. For example, the medium range forecast data provides 2 - 3 days advanced notice of peak flood conditions to a reasonable level of accuracy in most cases relative to both timing and magnitude. Short range forecast data provides about 12 - 14 hours advanced notice. Since these are hyper-resolution models, flood forecasts can be made at the street level, providing emergency response teams with valuable information for coordinating and dispatching limited resources.

Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew

2014-01-01

In this study we implement and evaluate a simple 'hybrid' forecast approach that uses constructed analogs (CA) to improve the National Multi-Model Ensemble's (NMME) March–April–May (MAM) precipitation forecasts over equatorial eastern Africa (hereafter referred to as EA, 2°S to 8°N and 36°E to 46°E). Due to recent declines in MAM rainfall, increases in population, land degradation, and limited technological advances, this region has become a recent epicenter of food insecurity. Timely and skillful precipitation forecasts for EA could help decision makers better manage their limited resources, mitigate socio-economic losses, and potentially save human lives. The 'hybrid approach' described in this study uses the CA method to translate dynamical precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts over the Indian and Pacific Oceans (specifically 30°S to 30°N and 30°E to 270°E) into terrestrial MAM precipitation forecasts over the EA region. In doing so, this approach benefits from the post-1999 teleconnection that exists between precipitation and SSTs over the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans (Indo-Pacific) and EA MAM rainfall. The coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamical forecasts used in this study were drawn from the NMME. We demonstrate that while the MAM precipitation forecasts (initialized in February) skill of the NMME models over the EA region itself is negligible, the ranked probability skill score of hybrid CA forecasts based on Indo-Pacific NMME precipitation and SST forecasts reach up to 0.45.

An Enhanced Convective Forecast (ECF) for the New York TRACON Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark; Stobie, James; Gillen, Robert; Jedlovec, Gary; Sims, Danny

2008-01-01

In an effort to relieve summer-time congestion in the NY Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) area, the FAA is testing an enhanced convective forecast (ECF) product. The test began in June 2008 and is scheduled to run through early September. The ECF is updated every two hours, right before the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) national planning telcon. It is intended to be used by traffic managers throughout the National Airspace System (NAS) and airlines dispatchers to supplement information from the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) and the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS). The ECF begins where the current CIWS forecast ends at 2 hours and extends out to 12 hours. Unlike the CCFP it is a detailed deterministic forecast with no aerial coverage limits. It is created by an ENSCO forecaster using a variety of guidance products including, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This is the same version of the WRF that ENSCO runs over the Florida peninsula in support of launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center. For this project, the WRF model domain has been shifted to the Northeastern US. Several products from the NASA SPoRT group are also used by the ENSCO forecaster. In this paper we will provide examples of the ECF products and discuss individual cases of traffic management actions using ECF guidance.

Applications of Experimental Suomi-NPP VIIRS Flood Inundation Maps in Operational Flood Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deweese, M. M.

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most costly natural disaster across the globe. In 2016 flooding caused more fatalities than any other natural disaster in the United States. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) is mandated to forecast rivers for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Since 2014, the NWS North Central River Forecast Center has utilized experimental near real time flood mapping products from the JPSS Suomi-NPP VIIRS satellite. These products have been demonstrated to provide reliable and high value information for forecasters in ice jam and snowmelt flooding in data sparse regions of the northern plains. In addition, they have proved valuable in rainfall induced flooding within the upper Mississippi River basin. Aerial photography and ground observations have validated the accuracy of the products. Examples are provided from numerous flooding events to demonstrate the operational application of this satellite derived information as a remotely sensed observational data source and it's utility in real time flood forecasting.

Increased Accuracy in Statistical Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nateghi, R.; Quiring, S. M.; Guikema, S. D.

2012-12-01

Hurricanes are among the costliest and most destructive natural hazards in the U.S. Accurate hurricane forecasts are crucial to optimal preparedness and mitigation decisions in the U.S. where 50 percent of the population lives within 50 miles of the coast. We developed a flexible statistical approach to forecast annual number of hurricanes in the Atlantic region during the hurricane season. Our model is based on the method of Random Forest and captures the complex relationship between hurricane activity and climatic conditions through careful variable selection, model testing and validation. We used the National Hurricane Center's Best Track hurricane data from 1949-2011 and sixty-one candidate climate descriptors to develop our model. The model includes information prior to the hurricane season, i.e., from the last three months of the previous year (Oct. through Dec.) and the first five months of the current year (January through May). Our forecast errors are substantially lower than other leading forecasts such as that of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Short term load forecasting of anomalous load using hybrid soft computing methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasyid, S. A.; Abdullah, A. G.; Mulyadi, Y.

2016-04-01

Load forecast accuracy will have an impact on the generation cost is more economical. The use of electrical energy by consumers on holiday, show the tendency of the load patterns are not identical, it is different from the pattern of the load on a normal day. It is then defined as a anomalous load. In this paper, the method of hybrid ANN-Particle Swarm proposed to improve the accuracy of anomalous load forecasting that often occur on holidays. The proposed methodology has been used to forecast the half-hourly electricity demand for power systems in the Indonesia National Electricity Market in West Java region. Experiments were conducted by testing various of learning rate and learning data input. Performance of this methodology will be validated with real data from the national of electricity company. The result of observations show that the proposed formula is very effective to short-term load forecasting in the case of anomalous load. Hybrid ANN-Swarm Particle relatively simple and easy as a analysis tool by engineers.

The South Pacific Forestry Development Programme

Treesearch

Tang Hon Tat

1992-01-01

Only a few countries in the South Pacific are large enough for industrial forestry to be a key component of the national economy, but forests provide benefits to many people. The United Nations FA0 South Pacific Forestry Development Programme was established in April 1988, at Port Vila, Vanuatu, with a $385,000 budget, and 14 nations participating. The Programme's...

Forecasting paratransit services demand : review and recommendations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

Travel demand forecasting tools for Floridas paratransit services are outdated, utilizing old national trip : generation rate generalities and simple linear regression models. In its guidance for the development of : mandated Transportation Disadv...

Validation of reactive gases and aerosols in the MACC global analysis and forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eskes, H.; Huijnen, V.; Arola, A.; Benedictow, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Botek, E.; Boucher, O.; Bouarar, I.; Chabrillat, S.; Cuevas, E.; Engelen, R.; Flentje, H.; Gaudel, A.; Griesfeller, J.; Jones, L.; Kapsomenakis, J.; Katragkou, E.; Kinne, S.; Langerock, B.; Razinger, M.; Richter, A.; Schultz, M.; Schulz, M.; Sudarchikova, N.; Thouret, V.; Vrekoussis, M.; Wagner, A.; Zerefos, C.

2015-11-01

The European MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project is preparing the operational Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), one of the services of the European Copernicus Programme on Earth observation and environmental services. MACC uses data assimilation to combine in situ and remote sensing observations with global and regional models of atmospheric reactive gases, aerosols, and greenhouse gases, and is based on the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The global component of the MACC service has a dedicated validation activity to document the quality of the atmospheric composition products. In this paper we discuss the approach to validation that has been developed over the past 3 years. Topics discussed are the validation requirements, the operational aspects, the measurement data sets used, the structure of the validation reports, the models and assimilation systems validated, the procedure to introduce new upgrades, and the scoring methods. One specific target of the MACC system concerns forecasting special events with high-pollution concentrations. Such events receive extra attention in the validation process. Finally, a summary is provided of the results from the validation of the latest set of daily global analysis and forecast products from the MACC system reported in November 2014.

National infection prevention and control programmes: Endorsing quality of care.

PubMed

Stempliuk, Valeska; Ramon-Pardo, Pilar; Holder, Reynaldo

2014-01-01

Core components Health care-associated infections (HAIs) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. In addition to pain and suffering, HAIs increase the cost of health care and generates indirect costs from loss of productivity for patients and society as a whole. Since 2005, the Pan American Health Organization has provided support to countries for the assessment of their capacities in infection prevention and control (IPC). More than 130 hospitals in 18 countries were found to have poor IPC programmes. However, in the midst of many competing health priorities, IPC programmes are not high on the agenda of ministries of health, and the sustainability of national programmes is not viewed as a key point in making health care systems more consistent and trustworthy. Comprehensive IPC programmes will enable countries to reduce the mobility, mortality and cost of HAIs and improve quality of care. This paper addresses the relevance of national infection prevention and control (NIPC) programmes in promoting, supporting and reinforcing IPC interventions at the level of hospitals. A strong commitment from national health authorities in support of national IPC programmes is crucial to obtaining a steady decrease of HAIs, lowering health costs due to HAIs and ensuring safer care.

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dreher, Joseph; Blottman, Peter F.; Sharp, David W.; Hoeth, Brian; Van Speybroeck, Kurt

2009-01-01

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

Demand Forecasting: An Evaluation of DODs Accuracy Metric and Navys Procedures

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

inventory management improvement plan, mean of absolute scaled error, lead time adjusted squared error, forecast accuracy, benchmarking, naïve method...Manager JASA Journal of the American Statistical Association LASE Lead-time Adjusted Squared Error LCI Life Cycle Indicator MA Moving Average MAE...Mean Squared Error xvi NAVSUP Naval Supply Systems Command NDAA National Defense Authorization Act NIIN National Individual Identification Number

Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

2015-12-01

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

Stochastic Model of Seasonal Runoff Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, Roman; Watada, Leslie M.

1986-03-01

Each year the National Weather Service and the Soil Conservation Service issue a monthly sequence of five (or six) categorical forecasts of the seasonal snowmelt runoff volume. To describe uncertainties in these forecasts for the purposes of optimal decision making, a stochastic model is formulated. It is a discrete-time, finite, continuous-space, nonstationary Markov process. Posterior densities of the actual runoff conditional upon a forecast, and transition densities of forecasts are obtained from a Bayesian information processor. Parametric densities are derived for the process with a normal prior density of the runoff and a linear model of the forecast error. The structure of the model and the estimation procedure are motivated by analyses of forecast records from five stations in the Snake River basin, from the period 1971-1983. The advantages of supplementing the current forecasting scheme with a Bayesian analysis are discussed.

Expanding Global Language Education in Public Primary Schools: The National English Programme in Mexico

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sayer, Peter

2015-01-01

The paper examines the recent national programme of English language instruction in the Mexican public primary schools, called the "Programa Nacional de Inglés en Educación Básica" (PNIEB). The programme, initiated in 2009 by the Ministry of Education as part of the national curriculum, represents the largest expansion of English…

Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norton, C. C.

1985-01-01

A final progress report is presented on the Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS). The primary purpose of the CSIS is to demonstrate and evaluate real time interactive computerized data collection, interpretation and display techniques as applied to severe weather forecasting. CSIS objectives pertaining to improved severe storm forecasting and warning systems are outlined. The positive impact that CSIS has had on the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is discussed. The benefits of interactive processing systems on the forecasting ability of the NSSFC are described.

Sensitivity analysis of numerical weather prediction radiative schemes to forecast direct solar radiation over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukkavilli, S. K.; Kay, M. J.; Taylor, R.; Prasad, A. A.; Troccoli, A.

2014-12-01

The Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) project requires forecasting timeframes which range from nowcasting to long-term forecasts (minutes to two years). As concentrating solar power (CSP) plant operators are one of the key stakeholders in the national energy market, research and development enhancements for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is a major subtask. This project involves comparing different radiative scheme codes to improve day ahead DNI forecasts on the national supercomputing infrastructure running mesoscale simulations on NOAA's Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model. ASEFS also requires aerosol data fusion for improving accurate representation of spatio-temporally variable atmospheric aerosols to reduce DNI bias error in clear sky conditions over southern Queensland & New South Wales where solar power is vulnerable to uncertainities from frequent aerosol radiative events such as bush fires and desert dust. Initial results from thirteen years of Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) deseasonalised DNI and MODIS NASA-Terra aerosol optical depth (AOD) anomalies demonstrated strong negative correlations in north and southeast Australia along with strong variability in AOD (~0.03-0.05). Radiative transfer schemes, DNI and AOD anomaly correlations will be discussed for the population and transmission grid centric regions where current and planned CSP plants dispatch electricity to capture peak prices in the market. Aerosol and solar irradiance datasets include satellite and ground based assimilations from the national BOM, regional aerosol researchers and agencies. The presentation will provide an overview of this ASEFS project task on WRF and results to date. The overall goal of this ASEFS subtask is to develop a hybrid numerical weather prediction (NWP) and statistical/machine learning multi-model ensemble strategy that meets future operational requirements of CSP plant operators.

Use of JPSS ATMS, CrIS, and VIIRS data to Improve Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chirokova, G.; Demaria, M.; DeMaria, R.; Knaff, J. A.; Dostalek, J.; Musgrave, K. D.; Beven, J. L.

2015-12-01

JPSS data provide unique information that could be critical for the forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity and is currently underutilized. Preliminary results from several TC applications using data from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), the Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), carried by the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership satellite (SNPP), will be discussed. The first group of applications, which includes applications for moisture flux and for eye-detection, aims to improve rapid intensification (RI) forecasts, which is one of the highest priorities within NOAA. The applications could be used by forecasters directly and will also provide additional input to the Rapid Intensification Index (RII), the statistical-dynamical tool for forecasting RI events that is operational at the National Hurricane Center. The moisture flux application uses bias-corrected ATMS-MIRS (Microwave Integrated Retrieval System) and NUCAPS (NOAA Unique CrIS ATMS Processing System), retrievals that provide very accurate temperature and humidity soundings in the TC environment to detect dry air intrusions. The objective automated eye-detection application uses geostationary and VIIRS data in combination with machine learning and computer vision techniques for determining the onset of eye formation which is very important for TC intensity forecast but is usually determined by subjective methods. First version of the algorithm showed very promising results with a 75% success rate. The second group of applications develops tools to better utilize VIIRS data, including day-night band (DNB) imagery, for tropical cyclone forecasting. Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and findings contained in this article are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or U.S. Government position, policy, or decision.

JPSS Preparations at the Satellite Proving Ground for Marine, Precipitation, and Satellite Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folmer, M. J.; Berndt, E.; Clark, J.; Orrison, A.; Kibler, J.; Sienkiewicz, J. M.; Nelson, J. A., Jr.; Goldberg, M.

2016-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Satellite Proving Ground (PG) for Marine, Precipitation, and Satellite Analysis (MPS) has been demonstrating and evaluating Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) products along with other polar-orbiting satellite platforms in preparation for the Joint Polar Satellite System - 1 (JPSS-1) launch in March 2017. The first S-NPP imagery was made available to the MPS PG during the evolution of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 and has since been popular in operations. Since this event the MPS PG Satellite Liaison has been working with forecasters on ways to integrate single-channel and multispectral imagery from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)into operations to complement numerical weather prediction and geostationary satellite savvy National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers. Additional unique products have been introduced to operations to address specific forecast challenges, including the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Layered Precipitable Water, the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Snowfall Rate product, NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) Soundings, ozone products from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder/Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (CrIS/ATMS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). In addition, new satellite domains have been created to provide forecasters at the NWS Ocean Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center with better quality imagery at high latitudes. This has led to research projects that are addressing forecast challenges such as tropical to extratropical transition and explosive cyclogenesis. This presentation will provide examples of how the MPS PG has been introducing and integrating these products into operations to help solve these forecast challenges.

Fennec dust forecast intercomparison over the Sahara in June 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Flamant, Cyrille; Dauhut, Thibaut; Kocha, Cécile; Lafore, Jean-Philippe; Lavaysse, Chistophe; Marnas, Fabien; Mokhtari, Mohamed; Pelon, Jacques; Reinares Martínez, Irene; Schepanski, Kerstin; Tulet, Pierre

2016-06-01

In the framework of the Fennec international programme, a field campaign was conducted in June 2011 over the western Sahara. It led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) under the influence of the heat low. In support to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run daily at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara. At monthly scale, large aerosol optical depths (AODs) were forecast over the Sahara, a feature observed by satellite retrievals but with different magnitudes. The AOD intensity was correctly predicted by the high-resolution models, while it was underestimated by the low-resolution models. This was partly because of the generation of strong near-surface wind associated with thunderstorm-related density currents that could only be reproduced by models representing convection explicitly. Such models yield emissions mainly in the afternoon that dominate the total emission over the western fringes of the Adrar des Iforas and the Aïr Mountains in the high-resolution forecasts. Over the western Sahara, where the harmattan contributes up to 80 % of dust emission, all the models were successful in forecasting the deep well-mixed SABL. Some of them, however, missed the large near-surface dust concentration generated by density currents and low-level winds. This feature, observed repeatedly by the airborne lidar, was partly forecast by one high-resolution model only.

Fennec dust forecast intercomparison over the Sahara in June 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaboureau, J. P.; Flamant, C.; Dauhut, T.; Lafore, J. P.; Lavaysse, C.; Pelon, J.; Schepanski, K.; Tulet, P.

2016-12-01

In the framework of the Fennec international programme, a field campaign was conducted in June 2011 over the western Sahara. It led to the first observational data set ever obtained that documents the dynamics, thermodynam-ics and composition of the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) under the influence of the heat low. In support to the aircraft operation, four dust forecasts were run daily at low and high resolutions with convection-parameterizing and convection-permitting models, respectively. The unique airborne and ground-based data sets allowed the first ever intercomparison of dust forecasts over the western Sahara. At monthly scale, large aerosol optical depths (AODs) were forecast over the Sahara, a feature observed by satellite retrievals but with different magnitudes. The AOD intensity was correctly predicted by the high-resolution models, while it was underestimated by the low-resolution models. This was partly because of the generation of strong near-surface wind associated with thunderstorm-related density currents that could only be reproduced by models representing convection explicitly. Such models yield emissions mainly in the afternoon that dominate the total emission over the western fringes of the Adrar des Iforas and the Aïr Mountains in the high-resolution forecasts. Over the western Sahara, where the harmattan contributes up to 80 % of dust emission, all the models were successful in forecasting the deep well-mixed SABL. Some of them, however, missed the large near-surface dust concentration generated by density currents and low-level winds. This feature, observed repeatedly by the airborne lidar, was partly forecast by one high-resolution model only.

Experimental weekly to seasonal U.S. forecasts with the Regional Spectral Model

Treesearch

J. Roads

2004-01-01

As described previously Roads et al. 2001a, hereafter RCF), the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making routine, near-real-time, long-range experimental global and regional dynamical forecasts since 27 September 1997. The global spectral model (GSM) used for these forecasts is that of National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP;...

Optimizing Microgrid Architecture on Department of Defense Installations

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

PPA power purchase agreement PV photovoltaic QDR Quadrennial Defense Review SNL Sandia National Laboratory SPIDERS Smart Power Infrastructure...a MILP that dispatches fuel-based generators with consideration to an ensemble of forecasted inputs from renewable power sources, subject to physical...wind power project costs by region: 2012 projects, from [30]. 6. Weather Forecasts Weather forecasts are often presented as a single prediction

Establishing NWP capabilities in African Small Island States (SIDs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rögnvaldsson, Ólafur

2017-04-01

Íslenskar orkurannsóknir (ÍSOR), in collaboration with Belgingur Ltd. and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) signed a Letter of Agreement in 2015 regarding collaboration in the "Establishing Operational Capacity for Building, Deploying and Using Numerical Weather and Seasonal Prediction Systems in Small Island States in Africa (SIDs)" project. The specific objectives of the collaboration were the following: - Build capacity of National Meteorological and Hydrology Services (NMHS) staff on the use of the WRF atmospheric model for weather and seasonal forecasting, interpretation of model results, and the use of observations to verify and improve model simulations. - Establish a platform for integrating short to medium range weather forecasts, as well as seasonal forecasts, into already existing infrastructure at NMHS and Regional Climate Centres. - Improve understanding of existing model results and forecast verification, for improving decision-making on the time scale of days to weeks. To meet these challenges the operational Weather On Demand (WOD) forecasting system, developed by Belgingur, is being installed in a number of SIDs countries (Cabo Verde, Guinea-Bissau, and Seychelles), as well as being deployed for the Pan-Africa region, with forecasts being disseminated to collaborating NMHSs.

The Validity and Reliability of the Cross-National Comparison of Degree Programme Levels in European Countries. What Have Students Learnt?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rexwinkel, Trudy; Haenen, Jacques; Pilot, Albert

2017-01-01

A cross-national comparison of degree programme levels became relevant when the borders of European countries opened for students and graduates, and higher education institutions were restructured into bachelor's and master's programmes. This new situation foregrounded the questions of what students are learning in the degree programmes of…

National and regional asthma programmes in Europe.

PubMed

Selroos, Olof; Kupczyk, Maciej; Kuna, Piotr; Łacwik, Piotr; Bousquet, Jean; Brennan, David; Palkonen, Susanna; Contreras, Javier; FitzGerald, Mark; Hedlin, Gunilla; Johnston, Sebastian L; Louis, Renaud; Metcalf, Leanne; Walker, Samantha; Moreno-Galdó, Antonio; Papadopoulos, Nikolaos G; Rosado-Pinto, José; Powell, Pippa; Haahtela, Tari

2015-09-01

This review presents seven national asthma programmes to support the European Asthma Research and Innovation Partnership in developing strategies to reduce asthma mortality and morbidity across Europe. From published data it appears that in order to influence asthma care, national/regional asthma programmes are more effective than conventional treatment guidelines. An asthma programme should start with the universal commitments of stakeholders at all levels and the programme has to be endorsed by political and governmental bodies. When the national problems have been identified, the goals of the programme have to be clearly defined with measures to evaluate progress. An action plan has to be developed, including defined re-allocation of patients and existing resources, if necessary, between primary care and specialised healthcare units or hospital centres. Patients should be involved in guided self-management education and structured follow-up in relation to disease severity. The three evaluated programmes show that, thanks to rigorous efforts, it is possible to improve patients' quality of life and reduce hospitalisation, asthma mortality, sick leave and disability pensions. The direct and indirect costs, both for the individual patient and for society, can be significantly reduced. The results can form the basis for development of further programme activities in Europe. Copyright ©ERS 2015.

Nutrition advocacy and national development: the PROFILES programme and its application.

PubMed Central

Burkhalter, B. R.; Abel, E.; Aguayo, V.; Diene, S. M.; Parlato, M. B.; Ross, J. S.

1999-01-01

Investment in nutritional programmes can contribute to economic growth and is cost-effective in improving child survival and development. In order to communicate this to decision-makers, the PROFILES nutrition advocacy and policy development programme was applied in certain developing countries. Effective advocacy is necessary to generate financial and political support for scaling up from small pilot projects and maintaining successful national programmes. The programme uses scientific knowledge to estimate development indicators such as mortality, morbidity, fertility, school performance and labour productivity from the size and nutritional condition of populations. Changes in nutritional condition are estimated from the costs, coverage and effectiveness of proposed programmes. In Bangladesh this approach helped to gain approval and funding for a major nutrition programme. PROFILES helped to promote the nutrition component of an early childhood development programme in the Philippines, and to make nutrition a top priority in Ghana's new national child survival strategy. The application of PROFILES in these and other countries has been supported by the United States Agency for International Development, the United Nations Children's Fund, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Micronutrient Initiative and other bodies. PMID:10361758

New Wine in Old Bottles? A Critique of Sweden's New National Training Programme for Head Teachers: Does It Strengthen or Undermine School Equality and Students' Educational Rights and Guarantees?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rapp, Stephan

2012-01-01

This research seeks to look at the effect of the new Swedish training programme for head teachers by comparing it with the previous national training programme and does so primarily through an analysis of documents and texts that served to underpin the two different programmes. To put the Swedish teacher-training programme in an international…

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collectionmore » of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.« less

International Collaboration in the field of GNSS-Meteorology and Climate Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J.; Guerova, G.; Dousa, J.; Bock, O.; Elgered, G.; Vedel, H.; Pottiaux, E.; de Haan, S.; Pacione, R.; Dick, G.; Wang, J.; Gutman, S. I.; Wickert, J.; Rannat, K.; Liu, G.; Braun, J. J.; Shoji, Y.

2012-12-01

International collaboration in the field of GNSS-meteorology and climate monitoring is essential, as severe weather and climate change have no respect for national boundaries. The use of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) for meteorological purposes is an established atmospheric observing technique, which can accurately sense water vapour, the most abundant greenhouse gas, accounting for 60-70% of atmospheric warming. Severe weather forecasting is challenging, in part due to the high temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric water vapour. Water vapour is currently under-sampled and obtaining and exploiting more high-quality humidity observations is essential to severe weather forecasting and climate monitoring. A proposed EU COST Action (http://www.cost.eu) will address new and improved capabilities from concurrent developments in both GNSS and atmospheric communities to improve (short-range) weather forecasts and climate projections. For the first time, the synergy of the three GNSS systems, GPS, GLONASS and Galileo, will be used to develop new, advanced tropospheric products, stimulating the full potential exploitation of multi-GNSS water vapour estimates on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, from real-time severe weather monitoring and forecasting to climate research. The Action will work in close collaboration with the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN), GNSS Precipitable Water Task Team (TT). GRUAN is a global reference observing network, designed to meet climate requirements and to fill a major void in the current global observing system. GRUAN observations will provide long-term, high-quality data to determine climatic trends and to constrain and validate data from space-based remote sensors. Ground-based GNSS PW was identified as a Priority 1 measurement for GRUAN, and the GNSS-PW TT's goal is to develop explicit guidance on hardware, software and data management practices to obtain GNSS PW measurements of consistent quality at all GRUAN sites. The GRUAN GNSS-PW TT and the proposed COST Action will look to expand the international framework already in place with the European E-GVAP programme to facilitate global collaboration to facilitate knowledge and data exchange.

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavordsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; Gotway, John H.; White, Kristopher; Medlin, Jeffrey; Wood, Lance; Radell, Dave

2014-01-01

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use cases.

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge.

PubMed

Biggerstaff, Matthew; Alper, David; Dredze, Mark; Fox, Spencer; Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai; Hickmann, Kyle S; Lewis, Bryan; Rosenfeld, Roni; Shaman, Jeffrey; Tsou, Ming-Hsiang; Velardi, Paola; Vespignani, Alessandro; Finelli, Lyn

2016-07-22

Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts.

NDBC - National Weather Service Marine Forecast FZUS51 KGYX

Science.gov Websites

Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Gray ME 1218 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM ANZ100-280630- 1218 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 Synopsis for - 1218 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING REST OF TODAY E

Knowledge and perceptions of national and provincial tuberculosis control programme managers in Pakistan about the WHO Stop TB strategy: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

Khan, Wasiq Mehmood; Smith, Helen; Qadeer, Ejaz

2016-01-01

Objective To understand how national and provincial tuberculosis programme managers in Pakistan perceive and engage with the Stop TB strategy, its strengths, weaknesses and their experience in its implementation. National and provincial tuberculosis programme managers play an important role in effective implementation of the Stop TB strategy. Design A qualitative interview study was conducted with 10 national and provincial tuberculosis programme managers to understand how they perceive and engage with the Stop TB strategy, its strengths, weaknesses and their experience in its implementation. Managers were selected purposively; 10 managers were interviewed (six national staff and four from provincial level). Participants National and provincial tuberculosis programme managers in Pakistan. Managers were selected purposively; 10 managers were interviewed (six national staff and four from provincial level). Setting National and provincial tuberculosis programmes in Pakistan Main outcome measures 1. Knowledge and perceptions of national and provincial tuberculosis programme managers about the Stop TB strategy 2. Progress in implementing the strategy in Pakistan 3. Significant success factors 4. Significant implementation challenges 5. Lessons learnt to scale up successful implementation. Results The managers reported that most progress had been made in extending DOTS, health systems strengthening, public -private mixed interventions, MDR-TB care and TB/HIV care. The four factors that contributed significantly to progress were the availability of DOTS services, the public-private partnership approach, comprehensive guidance for TB control and government and donor commitment to TB control. Conclusion This study identified three main challenges as perceived by national and provincial tuberculosis programme managers in terms of implementing the Stop TB strategy: 1. Inadequate political commitment, 2. Issue pertaining to prioritisation of certain components in the TB strategy over others due to external influences and 3. Limitations in the overall health system. To improve the tuberculosis control programme in the country political commitment needs to be enhanced and public -private partnerships increased. This can be done through government prioritisation of TB control at both national and provincial levels; donor-funded components should not receive undue attention; and partnerships with the private health sector, health institutions not yet covered by DOTS services, non-governmental organisations and patient coalitions should be increased. PMID:28203383

[The National Programme for Disease Management Guidelines. Goals, contents, patient involvement].

PubMed

Ollenschläger, G; Kopp, I; Lelgemann, M; Sänger, S; Klakow-Franck, R; Gibis, B; Gramsch, E; Jonitz, G

2007-03-01

The Programme for National Disease Management Guidelines (German DM-CPG Programme) aims at the implementation of best practice recommendations for prevention, acute care, rehabilitation and chronic care. The programme, focussing on high priority healthcare topics, has been sponsored since 2003 by the German Medical Association (BAEK), the Association of the Scientific Medical Societies (AWMF), and by the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV). It is organised by the German Agency for Quality in Medicine, a founding member of the Guidelines International Network (G-I-N). The main objective of the programme is to establish consensus of the medical professions on evidence-based key recommendations covering all sectors of health care provision and facilitating the coordination of care for the individual patient through time and across disciplines. Within this framework experts from national patient self-help groups have been developing patient guidance based upon the recommendations for healthcare providers. The article describes goals, topics and selected contents of the DM-CPG programme - using asthma as an example.

AIR QUALITY FORECAST VERIFICATION USING SATELLITE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

NOAA 's operational geostationary satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depths (AODs) were used to verify National Weather Service (NWS) experimental (research mode) particulate matter (PM2.5) forecast guidance issued during the summer 2004 International Consortium for Atmosp...

Space transportation forecast conference, February 10-11, 1998 : Quarterly Launch Report : special report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration's Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation (AST) convened the first national commercial space transportation forecast conference on February 10-11, 1998. For the theme, Commercial Space Transport...

Medication sales and syndromic surveillance, France.

PubMed

Vergu, Elisabeta; Grais, Rebecca F; Sarter, Hélène; Fagot, Jean-Paul; Lambert, Bruno; Valleron, Alain-Jaques; Flahault, Antoine

2006-03-01

Although syndromic surveillance systems using nonclinical data have been implemented in the United States, the approach has yet to be tested in France. We present the results of the first model based on drug sales that detects the onset of influenza season and forecasts its trend. Using weekly lagged sales of a selected set of medications, we forecast influenzalike illness (ILI) incidence at the national and regional level for 3 epidemic seasons (2000-01, 2001-02, and 2002-03) and validate the model with real-time updating on the fourth (2003-04). For national forecasts 1-3 weeks ahead, the correlation between observed ILI incidence and forecast was 0.85-0.96, an improvement over the current surveillance method in France. Our findings indicate that drug sales are a useful additional tool to syndromic surveillance, a complementary and independent source of information, and a potential improvement for early warning systems for both epidemic and pandemic planning.

Transforming National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Water Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graziano, T. M.; Clark, E. P.

2016-12-01

As a significant step forward to transform NOAA's water prediction services, NOAA plans to implement a new National Water Model (NWM) Version 1.0 in August 2016. A continental scale water resources model, the NWM is an evolution of the WRF-Hydro architecture developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It represents NOAA's first foray into high performance computing for water prediction and will expand NOAA's current water quantity forecasts, at approximately 4000 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gage sites across the country, to forecasts of flow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff, snow water equivalent and other parameters for 2.7 million stream reaches nationwide. This new guidance will be provided to NOAA's River Forecast Centers around the country and other field offices, along with guidance for evaluation and validation, and tools to visualize these data and enhance decision support. Initially, a subset if these data will be available via NOAA's Office of Water Prediction web site and the full output of the NWM simulations will be available via the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). These enhancements in turn will improve NWS' ability to deliver impact-based decision support services nationwide through the provision of short through extended range, high fidelity "street level" water forecasts and warnings. Subsequent planned out-year enhancements to the NWM include the expanded assimilation of anthropogenic data, an operational nest to provide higher resolution forecasts needed for inundation mapping, and tackling the deeper challenges associated with drought and other water resources issues. The NWM is a NOAA-led interagency effort that relies on the National Hydrographic Dataset of the USGS and EPA, as well as the National Streamflow Information Program of the USGS. Its development continues to be advanced in partnership with NCAR, and a partnership with the Consortium for the Advancement of Hydrologic Sciences, Inc. (CUASHI) and the National Science Foundation. This presentation will highlight the policy, programmatic, and service transformation of NOAA's water resources mission with the NWM.

The Verhulst Model with Remedy and Its Application in Forecasting Quantity of Student Taking Entrance Examination to College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Bin; Bi, Qing-sheng

2010-01-01

The Verhulst model can be used to forecast the sequence, which is characterized as non-monotone and fluctuant sequence or saturated S-form sequence. According to the situation of national enrollment scale of college, this paper forecasts the quantity of students taking entrance examination to college with a Verhulst model with remedy based on data…

Forecasts of 21st Century Snowpack and Implications for Snowmobile and Snowcoach Use in Yellowstone National Park

PubMed Central

Tercek, Michael; Rodman, Ann

2016-01-01

Climate models project a general decline in western US snowpack throughout the 21st century, but long-term, spatially fine-grained, management-relevant projections of snowpack are not available for Yellowstone National Park. We focus on the implications that future snow declines may have for oversnow vehicle (snowmobile and snowcoach) use because oversnow tourism is critical to the local economy and has been a contentious issue in the park for more than 30 years. Using temperature-indexed snow melt and accumulation equations with temperature and precipitation data from downscaled global climate models, we forecast the number of days that will be suitable for oversnow travel on each Yellowstone road segment during the mid- and late-21st century. The west entrance road was forecast to be the least suitable for oversnow use in the future while the south entrance road was forecast to remain at near historical levels of driveability. The greatest snow losses were forecast for the west entrance road where as little as 29% of the December–March oversnow season was forecast to be driveable by late century. The climatic conditions that allow oversnow vehicle use in Yellowstone are forecast by our methods to deteriorate significantly in the future. At some point it may be prudent to consider plowing the roads that experience the greatest snow losses. PMID:27467778

Observed Impacts. Chapter 19

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia

1999-01-01

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds.

Validation of reactive gases and aerosols in the MACC global analysis and forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eskes, H.; Huijnen, V.; Arola, A.; Benedictow, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Botek, E.; Boucher, O.; Bouarar, I.; Chabrillat, S.; Cuevas, E.; Engelen, R.; Flentje, H.; Gaudel, A.; Griesfeller, J.; Jones, L.; Kapsomenakis, J.; Katragkou, E.; Kinne, S.; Langerock, B.; Razinger, M.; Richter, A.; Schultz, M.; Schulz, M.; Sudarchikova, N.; Thouret, V.; Vrekoussis, M.; Wagner, A.; Zerefos, C.

2015-02-01

The European MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project is preparing the operational Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), one of the services of the European Copernicus Programme on Earth observation and environmental services. MACC uses data assimilation to combine in-situ and remote sensing observations with global and regional models of atmospheric reactive gases, aerosols and greenhouse gases, and is based on the Integrated Forecast System of the ECMWF. The global component of the MACC service has a dedicated validation activity to document the quality of the atmospheric composition products. In this paper we discuss the approach to validation that has been developed over the past three years. Topics discussed are the validation requirements, the operational aspects, the measurement data sets used, the structure of the validation reports, the models and assimilation systems validated, the procedure to introduce new upgrades, and the scoring methods. One specific target of the MACC system concerns forecasting special events with high pollution concentrations. Such events receive extra attention in the validation process. Finally, a summary is provided of the results from the validation of the latest set of daily global analysis and forecast products from the MACC system reported in November 2014.

Experiences from coordinated national-level landslide and flood forecasting in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krøgli, Ingeborg; Fleig, Anne; Glad, Per; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé

2015-04-01

While flood forecasting at national level is quite well established and operational in many countries worldwide, landslide forecasting at national level is still seldom. Examples of coordinated flood and landslide forecasting are even rarer. Most of the time flood and landslide forecasters work separately (investigating, defining thresholds, and developing models) and most of the time without communication with each other. One example of coordinated operational early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides is found at the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) in Norway. In this presentation we give an introduction to the two separate but tightly collaborative EWSs and to the coordination of these. The two EWSs are being operated from the same office, every day using similar hydro-meteorological prognosis and hydrological models. Prognosis and model outputs on e.g. discharge, snow melt, soil water content and exceeded landslide thresholds are evaluated in a web based decision-making tool (xgeo.no). The experts performing forecasts are hydrologists, geologists and physical geographers. A similar warning scale, based on colors (green, yellow, orange and red) is used for both EWSs, however thresholds for flood and landslide warning levels are defined differently. Also warning areas may not necessary be the same for both hazards and depending on the specific meteorological event, duration of the warning periods can differ. We present how knowledge, models and tools, but also human and economic resources are being shared between the two EWSs. Moreover, we discuss challenges faced in the communication of warning messages using recent flood and landslide events as examples.

Impact of Near-Field, Deep-Ocean Tsunami Observations on Forecasting the 7 December 2012 Japanese Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernard, Eddie; Wei, Yong; Tang, Liujuan; Titov, Vasily

2014-12-01

Following the devastating 11 March 2011 tsunami, two deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART®)(DART® and the DART® logo are registered trademarks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, used with permission) stations were deployed in Japanese waters by the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Two weeks after deployment, on 7 December 2012, a M w 7.3 earthquake off Japan's Pacific coastline generated a tsunami. The tsunami was recorded at the two Japanese DARTs as early as 11 min after the earthquake origin time, which set a record as the fastest tsunami detecting time at a DART station. These data, along with those recorded at other DARTs, were used to derive a tsunami source using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tsunami forecast system. The results of our analysis show that data provided by the two near-field Japanese DARTs can not only improve the forecast speed but also the forecast accuracy at the Japanese tide gauge stations. This study provides important guidelines for early detection and forecasting of local tsunamis.

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-07-01

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`smore » National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.« less

Governance and Risk Management of Network and Information Security: The Role of Public Private Partnerships in Managing the Existing and Emerging Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navare, Jyoti; Gemikonakli, Orhan

Globalisation and new technology has opened the gates to more security risks. As the strategic importance of communication networks and information increased, threats to the security and safety of communication infrastructures, as well as information stored in and/or transmitted increased significantly. The development of the self replicating programmes has become a nightmare for Internet users. Leading companies, strategic organisations were not immune to attacks; they were also "hacked" and overtaken by intruders. Incidents of recent years have also shown that national/regional crisis may also trigger cyber attacks at large scale. Experts forecast that cyber wars are likely to take the stage as tension mounts between developed societies. New risks such as cyber-attacks, network terrorism and disintegration of traditional infrastructures has somewhat blurred the boundaries of operation and control. This paper seeks to consider the risk management and governance and looking more specifically at implications for emerging economies.

Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).

PubMed

Pappenberger, F; Jendritzky, G; Staiger, H; Dutra, E; Di Giuseppe, F; Richardson, D S; Cloke, H L

2015-03-01

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single 'deterministic' forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale, which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia.

AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communications Through Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothmer, Volker

2013-04-01

Through the AFFECTS project funded by the European Union's 7th Framework Programme, European and US scientists develop an advanced proto-type space weather warning system to safeguard the operation of telecommunication and navigation systems on Earth to the threat of solar storms. The project is led by the University of Göttingen's Institute for Astrophysics and comprises worldwide leading research and academic institutions and industrial enterprises from Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway and the United States. The key objectives of the AFFECTS project are: State-of-the-art analysis and modelling of the Sun-Earth chain of effects on the Earth's ionosphere and their subsequent impacts on communication systems based on multipoint space observations and complementary ground-based data. Development of a prototype space weather early warning system and reliable space weather forecasts, with specific emphasis on ionospheric applications. Dissemination of new space weather products and services to end users, the scientific community and general public. The presentation summarizes the project highlights, with special emphasis on the developed space weather forecast tools.

A combination of HARMONIE short time direct normal irradiance forecasts and machine learning: The #hashtdim procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gastón, Martín; Fernández-Peruchena, Carlos; Körnich, Heiner; Landelius, Tomas

2017-06-01

The present work describes the first approach of a new procedure to forecast Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI): the #hashtdim that treats to combine ground information and Numerical Weather Predictions. The system is centered in generate predictions for the very short time. It combines the outputs from the Numerical Weather Prediction Model HARMONIE with an adaptive methodology based on Machine Learning. The DNI predictions are generated with 15-minute and hourly temporal resolutions and presents 3-hourly updates. Each update offers forecasts to the next 12 hours, the first nine hours are generated with 15-minute temporal resolution meanwhile the last three hours present hourly temporal resolution. The system is proved over a Spanish emplacement with BSRN operative station in south of Spain (PSA station). The #hashtdim has been implemented in the framework of the Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting methods for optimized operation of concentrating solar technologies (DNICast) project, under the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration framework.

Proceedings of the First National Workshop on the Global Weather Experiment: Current Achievements and Future Directions, volume 2, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Topics covered include: data systems and quality; analysis and assimilation techniques; impacts on forecasts; tropical forecasts; analysis intercomparisons; improvements in predictability; and heat sources and sinks.

Special report: FAA's third annual commercial space transportation forecast conference (February 8-9 2000)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-02-01

The Third Annual Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Commercial Space : Transportation Forecast Conference took place in Arlington, Virginia at the Sheraton National Hotel. The year 2000 conference featured seven panels and several special presenta...

Current problems in communication from the weather forecast in the prevention of hydraulic and hydrogeological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazzini, Massimiliano; Vaccaro, Carmela

2014-05-01

The Italian territory is one of the most fragile hydraulic and hydro geologic of the world, due to its complexity physiographic, lithological and above meteo-climatic too. Moreover, In recent years, the unhappy urbanization, the abandonment of mountain areas and countryside have fostered hydro geological instability, ever more devastating, in relation to the extremes of meteorological events. After the dramatic floods and landscapes of the last 24 months - in which more than 50 people died - it is actually open a public debate on the issues related to prevention, forecasting and management of hydro-meteorological risk. Aim of the correct weather forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales is to avoid or minimize the potential occurrence of damage or human losses resulting from the increasingly of frequent extreme weather events. In Italy, there are two major complex problems that do not allow for effective dissemination of the correct weather forecasting. First, the absence of a national meteorological service - which can ensure the quality of information. In this regard, it is at an advanced stage the establishment of a unified national weather service - formed by technicians to national and regional civil protection and the Meteorological Service of the Air Force, which will ensure the quality of the prediction, especially through exclusive processing of national and local weather forecasting and hydro geological weather alert. At present, however, this lack favors the increasing diffusion of meteorological sites more or less professional - often totally not "ethical" - which, at different spatial scales, tend to amplify the signals from the weather prediction models, describing them the users of the web such as exceptional or rare phenomena and often causing unjustified alarmism. This behavior is almost always aimed at the desire of give a forecast before other sites and therefore looking for new commercial sponsors, with easy profits. On the other hand, however, the almost complete absence of education to environmental risks - also from as primary school - does not allow the users to know to select the information ethically and technically correct, increasingly favoring the proliferation of most of the "weather-commercial" or private weather websites. It would seem therefore essential to implement the activities of specific information by the universities and public institutions responsible for forecasting and prevention-hydrological forecast.

An Open-Book Modular Watershed Modeling Framework for Rapid Prototyping of GPM- based Flood Forecasting in International River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katiyar, N.; Hossain, F.

2006-05-01

Floods have always been disastrous for human life. It accounts for about 15 % of the total death related to natural disasters. There are around 263 transboundary river basins listed by UNESCO, wherein at least 30 countries have more than 95% of their territory locked in one or more such transboundary basins. For flood forecasting in the lower riparian nations of these International River Basins (IRBs), real-time rainfall data from upstream nations is naturally the most critical factor governing the forecasting effectiveness. However, many upstream nations fail to provide data to the lower riparian nations due to a lack of in-situ rainfall measurement infrastructure or a lack of a treaty for real-time sharing of rainfall data. A potential solution is therefore to use satellites that inherently measure rainfall across political boundaries. NASA's proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission appears very promising in providing this vital rainfall information under the data- limited scenario that will continue to prevail in most IRBs. However, satellite rainfall is associated with uncertainty and hence, proper characterization of the satellite rainfall error propagation in hydrologic models for flood forecasting is a critical priority that should be resolved in the coming years in anticipation of GPM. In this study, we assess an open book modular watershed modeling approach for estimating the expected error in flood forecasting related to GPM rainfall data. Our motivation stems from the critical challenge in identifying the specific IRBs that would benefit from a pre-programmed satellite-based forecasting system in anticipation of GPM. As the number of flood-prone IRBs is large, conventional data-intensive implementation of existing physically-based distributed hydrologic models on case-by-case IRBs is considered time-consuming for completing such a global assessment. A more parsimonious approach is justified at the expense of a tolerable loss of detail and accuracy. Through assessment of our proposed modular modeling framework, we present our initial understanding in resolving the fundamental question - Can a parsimonious open-book watershed modeling framework be a physically consistent proxy for rapid and global identification of IRBs in greater need of a GPM-based flood forecasting system?

Teaching and Learning National Transformation Programme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Browne, Liz

2006-01-01

This article reports on a research project undertaken on behalf of the Standards Unit to research the impact of the Teaching and Learning National Transformation Programme for the Learning and Skills sector. The transformational programme is best described as having three enablers, namely teaching and learning resources to support practitioners,…

Evaluating the Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data On Convective Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozlowski, Danielle; Zavodsky, Bradley

2011-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. The mission of SPoRT is to transition observations and research capabilities into operations to help improve short-term weather forecasts on a regional scale. Two areas of focus are data assimilation and modeling, which can to help accomplish SPoRT's programmatic goals of transitioning NASA data to operational users. Forecasting convective weather is one challenge that faces operational forecasters. Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that operational forecasters use struggle to properly forecast location, timing, intensity and/or mode of convection. Given the proper atmospheric conditions, convection can lead to severe weather. SPoRT's partners in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have a mission to protect the life and property of American citizens. This mission has been tested as recently as this 2011 severe weather season, which has seen more than 300 fatalities and injuries and total damages exceeding $10 billion. In fact, during the three day period from 25-27 April, 1,265 storms reports (362 tornado reports) were collected making this three day period one of most active in American history. To address the forecast challenge of convective weather, SPoRT produces a real-time NWP model called the SPoRT Weather Research and Forecasting (SPoRT-WRF), which incorporates unique NASA data sets. One of the NASA assets used in this unique model configuration is retrieved profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS).The goal of this project is to determine the impact that these AIRS profiles have on the SPoRT-WRF forecasts by comparing to a current operational model and a control SPoRT-WRF model that does not contain AIRS profiles.

The International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) - An International Polar Year Every Year

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanna, M.; Rigor, I.; Ortmeyer, M.; Haas, C.

2004-12-01

A network of automatic data buoys to monitor synoptic-scale fields of sea level pressure (SLP), surface air temperature (SAT), and ice motion throughout the Arctic Ocean was recommended by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in 1974. Based on the Academy's recommendation, the Arctic Ocean Buoy Program was established by the Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), University of Washington, in 1978 to support the Global Weather Experiment. Operations began in early 1979, and the program continued through 1990 under funding from various agencies. In 1991, the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) succeeded the Arctic Ocean Buoy Program, but the basic objective remains - to maintain a network of drifting buoys on the Arctic Ocean to provide meteorological and oceanographic data for real-time operational requirements and research purposes including support to the World Climate Research Programme and the World Weather Watch Programme. The IABP currently has 37 buoys deployed on the Arctic Ocean. Most of the buoys measure SLP and SAT, but many buoys are enhanced to measure other geophysical variables such as sea ice thickness, ocean temperature and salinity. This observational array is maintained by the 20 Participants from 10 different countries, who support the program through contributions of buoys, deployment logistics, and other services. The observations from the IABP are posted on the Global Telecommunications System for operational use, are archived at the World Data Center for Glaciology at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (http://nsidc.org), and can also be obtained from the IABP web server for research (http://iabp.apl.washington.edu). The observations from the IABP have been essential for: 1.) Monitoring Arctic and global climate change; 2.) Forecasting weather and sea ice conditions; 3.) Forcing, assimilation and validation of global weather and climate models; 4.) Validation of satellite data; etc. As of 2003, over 450 papers have been written using the observations collected by the IABP. The observations from IABP have been one of the cornerstones for environmental forecasting and studies of climate and climate change, i.e. many of the changes in Arctic climate were first observed or explained using data from the IABP. The IABP is also evolving to better support the operational and research requirements of the community. For example, some of the Participants of the IABP have been deploying buoys which not only measure SLP and SAT, but also ocean currents, temperatures and salinity. Other buoys have been enhanced to measure the ice mass balance (IMB) using thermistor strings and pingers aimed at the top and bottom of the sea ice. Some of these ocean and IMB buoys are deployed in close proximity to each other in order to provide a myriad of concurrent observations at a few points across the Arctic Ocean. From these data we can also estimate time variations in other geophysical variables such as oceanic heat storage and heat flux. These stations provide critical atmospheric, ice, and upper ocean hydrographic measurements that cannot be obtained by other means. The Arctic and global climate system is changing. These changes threaten our native cultures and ecosystems, but may also provide economic and social opportunities. In order to understand and respond to these changes, we need to sustain our current observational systems, and for the Arctic, the IABP provides the longest continuing record of observations.

Forecasting the development of nanotechnology with the help of science and technology indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Compañó, Ramón; Hullmann, Angela

2002-06-01

Nanotechnology is supposed to become one of the key enabling technologies of the 21st century. Its economic potential is forecast to be a market of several hundred billion Euros in the next decade. Therefore, nanotechnology has attracted the interest of many industry sectors and many companies redirecting internal activities to prepare themselves for this new challenge. At the same time governmental R&D decision makers all over the world are setting up new nanotechnology-specific research programmes aiming at putting their respective countries in a favourable position for the future. The aim of this paper is to use scientific and technological indicators to make predictions on economic development and to compare the situation in different countries.

Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting at NASA in Support of the National Earth System Prediction Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Considine, D. B.; Pawson, S.; Koster, R. D.; Kovach, R. M.; Vernieres, G.; Schubert, S. D.

2016-12-01

NASA has developed and maintains, within the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), a seasonal-to-interannual prediction activity in support of the National ESPC, based on the GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). This system generates atmospheric, land, and ocean/ice analyses that are used to produce global forecasts. Each month, a 17-member ensemble of forecasts is made, from which various oceanic indices (e.g., El Niño, East Indian Dipole, Atlantic SST anomalies), are computed. Additionally, monthly and seasonal anomalies are computed for several variables from the atmosphere (e.g., 2-meter temperatures, precipitation, geopotential heights), land (drought indices), ocean (subsurface temperature anomalies), and sea ice. These forecasts are provided to the National Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) and the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) sea ice outlook. The quasi-operational nature of this system, with constant generation of products that are shared with the broader community, allows for continual assessment of the impacts of NASA observations on seasonal forecasts - a current example is the altimetry data from the JASON series of satellites. The GMAO's seasonal prediction system is currently being upgraded. Alongside typical enhancements, such as increased spatial resolution and use of more recent model versions with improved representation of physical processes, these developments are designed to enhance the use of NASA observations. One example is the use of aerosol information from NASA's EOS instruments (MODIS). A major motivation is also to include NASA's novel data types, such as soil-moisture from SMAP and other sources of oceanic information (such as salinity). This approach enables NASA to continue contributing to national seasonal forecasting efforts, while simultaneously introducing its novel observing capabilities into the seasonal system in a manner that can demonstrate their systematic impacts on the quality of the products.

Crop Yield Predictions - High Resolution Statistical Model for Intra-season Forecasts Applied to Corn in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Y.

2017-12-01

Accurately forecasting crop yields has broad implications for economic trading, food production monitoring, and global food security. However, the variation of environmental variables presents challenges to model yields accurately, especially when the lack of highly accurate measurements creates difficulties in creating models that can succeed across space and time. In 2016, we developed a sequence of machine-learning based models forecasting end-of-season corn yields for the US at both the county and national levels. We combined machine learning algorithms in a hierarchical way, and used an understanding of physiological processes in temporal feature selection, to achieve high precision in our intra-season forecasts, including in very anomalous seasons. During the live run, we predicted the national corn yield within 1.40% of the final USDA number as early as August. In the backtesting of the 2000-2015 period, our model predicts national yield within 2.69% of the actual yield on average already by mid-August. At the county level, our model predicts 77% of the variation in final yield using data through the beginning of August and improves to 80% by the beginning of October, with the percentage of counties predicted within 10% of the average yield increasing from 68% to 73%. Further, the lowest errors are in the most significant producing regions, resulting in very high precision national-level forecasts. In addition, we identify the changes of important variables throughout the season, specifically early-season land surface temperature, and mid-season land surface temperature and vegetation index. For the 2017 season, we feed 2016 data to the training set, together with additional geospatial data sources, aiming to make the current model even more precise. We will show how our 2017 US corn yield forecasts converges in time, which factors affect the yield the most, as well as present our plans for 2018 model adjustments.

A forecasting model for dengue incidence in the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka.

PubMed

Withanage, Gayan P; Viswakula, Sameera D; Nilmini Silva Gunawardena, Y I; Hapugoda, Menaka D

2018-04-24

Dengue is one of the major health problems in Sri Lanka causing an enormous social and economic burden to the country. An accurate early warning system can enhance the efficiency of preventive measures. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a simple accurate forecasting model for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Three time-series regression models were developed using monthly rainfall, rainy days, temperature, humidity, wind speed and retrospective dengue incidences over the period January 2012 to November 2015 for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Various lag times were analyzed to identify optimum forecasting periods including interactions of multiple lags. The models were validated using epidemiological data from December 2015 to November 2017. Prepared models were compared based on Akaike's information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and residual analysis. The selected model forecasted correctly with mean absolute errors of 0.07 and 0.22, and root mean squared errors of 0.09 and 0.28, for training and validation periods, respectively. There were no dengue epidemics observed in the district during the training period and nine outbreaks occurred during the forecasting period. The proposed model captured five outbreaks and correctly rejected 14 within the testing period of 24 months. The Pierce skill score of the model was 0.49, with a receiver operating characteristic of 86% and 92% sensitivity. The developed weather based forecasting model allows warnings of impending dengue outbreaks and epidemics in advance of one month with high accuracy. Depending upon climatic factors, the previous month's dengue cases had a significant effect on the dengue incidences of the current month. The simple, precise and understandable forecasting model developed could be used to manage limited public health resources effectively for patient management, vector surveillance and intervention programmes in the district.

Evaluating the implementation of a national clinical programme for diabetes to standardise and improve services: a realist evaluation protocol.

PubMed

McHugh, S; Tracey, M L; Riordan, F; O'Neill, K; Mays, N; Kearney, P M

2016-07-28

Over the last three decades in response to the growing burden of diabetes, countries worldwide have developed national and regional multifaceted programmes to improve the monitoring and management of diabetes and to enhance the coordination of care within and across settings. In Ireland in 2010, against a backdrop of limited dedicated strategic planning and engrained variation in the type and level of diabetes care, a national programme was established to standardise and improve care for people with diabetes in Ireland, known as the National Diabetes Programme (NDP). The NDP comprises a range of organisational and service delivery changes to support evidence-based practices and policies. This realist evaluation protocol sets out the approach that will be used to identify and explain which aspects of the programme are working, for whom and in what circumstances to produce the outcomes intended. This mixed method realist evaluation will develop theories about the relationship between the context, mechanisms and outcomes of the diabetes programme. In stage 1, to identify the official programme theories, documentary analysis and qualitative interviews were conducted with national stakeholders involved in the design, development and management of the programme. In stage 2, as part of a multiple case study design with one case per administrative region in the health system, qualitative interviews are being conducted with frontline staff and service users to explore their responses to, and reasoning about, the programme's resources (mechanisms). Finally, administrative data will be used to examine intermediate implementation outcomes such as service uptake, acceptability, and fidelity to models of care. This evaluation is using the principles of realist evaluation to examine the implementation of a national programme to standardise and improve services for people with diabetes in Ireland. The concurrence of implementation and evaluation has enabled us to produce formative feedback for the NDP while also supporting the refinement and revision of initial theories about how the programme is being implemented in the dynamic and unstable context of the Irish healthcare system.

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael; Lyon, Bradfield; Funk, Chris

2013-01-01

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Roberts, J. Brent; Bosilovich, Michael; Lyon, Bradfield

2013-01-01

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period.

Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts generated through post-processing in a Canadian catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Sanjeev K.; Shrestha, Durga L.; Stadnyk, Tricia A.; Coulibaly, Paulin

2018-03-01

Flooding in Canada is often caused by heavy rainfall during the snowmelt period. Hydrologic forecast centers rely on precipitation forecasts obtained from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to enforce hydrological models for streamflow forecasting. The uncertainties in raw quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are enhanced by physiography and orography effects over a diverse landscape, particularly in the western catchments of Canada. A Bayesian post-processing approach called rainfall post-processing (RPP), developed in Australia (Robertson et al., 2013; Shrestha et al., 2015), has been applied to assess its forecast performance in a Canadian catchment. Raw QPFs obtained from two sources, Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast 2 project, from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Global Deterministic Forecast System (GDPS), from Environment and Climate Change Canada, are used in this study. The study period from January 2013 to December 2015 covered a major flood event in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Post-processed results show that the RPP is able to remove the bias and reduce the errors of both GEFS and GDPS forecasts. Ensembles generated from the RPP reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty.

About NCEP

Science.gov Websites

through programs of applied research in data analysis, modeling and product development in partnership with the broader research community. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) provides official NWS ) provides analysis and forecast products, specializing in quantitative precipitation forecasts to five days

Storm Prediction Center Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on May 27,

Science.gov Websites

National RADAR Product Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm information in MS-Word or PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic

AN OPERATIONAL EVALUATION OF THE ETA - CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are developing an operational, nationwide Air Quality Forecasting (AQF) system. An experimental phase of this program, which couples NOAA's Et...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

/ VISION | About EMC EMC > NAM > Home NAM Operational Products HIRESW Operational Products Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model Configuration Collaborators Documentation and Code FAQ Operational Change Log Parallel Experiment Change Log Contacts

Experiments with Tropical Cyclone Wave and Intensity Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-30

algorithm In collaboration with Paul Wittmann (Fleet Numerical Metorology and Oceanography Center) and Hendrik Tolman (National Centers for...Wittmann, P.A., C Sampson and H. Tolman: 2006: Wave Analysis Guidance for Tropical Cyclone Forecast Advisories. 9th International Workshop on Wave

National Severe Storms Forecast Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The principal mission of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is to maintain a continuous watch of weather developments that are capable of producing severe local storms, including tornadoes, and to prepare and issue messages designated as either Weather Outlooks or Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watches for dissemination to the public and aviation services. In addition to its assigned responsibility at the national level, the NSSFC is involved in a number of programs at the regional and local levels. Subsequent subsections and paragraphs describe the NSSFC, its users, inputs, outputs, interfaces, capabilities, workload, problem areas, and future plans in more detail.

Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold models. Building on the experience gained in designing, implementing, and operating national and regional landslide forecasting systems in Italy, and on a preliminary review of the existing literature on regional landslide early warning systems, the talk discusses concepts, limitations and challenges inherent to the design of reliable forecasting and early warning systems for rainfall-triggered landslides, the evaluation of the performances of the systems, and on problems related to the use of the forecasts and the issuing of landslide warnings. Several of the typical elements of an operational landslide forecasting system are considered, including: (i) the rainfall and landslide information used to establish the threshold models, (ii) the methods and tools used to define the empirical rainfall thresholds, and their associated uncertainty, (iii) the quality (e.g., the temporal and spatial resolution) of the rainfall information used for operational forecasting, including rain gauge and radar measurements, satellite estimates, and quantitative weather forecasts, (iv) the ancillary information used to prepare the forecasts, including e.g., the terrain subdivisions and the landslide susceptibility zonations, (v) the criteria used to transform the forecasts into landslide warnings and the methods used to communicate the warnings, and (vi) the criteria and strategies adopted to evaluate the performances of the systems, and to define minimum or optimal performance levels.

Functional and performance requirements of the next NOAA-Kasas City computer system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mosher, F. R.

1985-01-01

The development of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System for the 1990's (AWIPS-90) will result in more timely and accurate forecasts with improved cost effectiveness. As part of the AWIPS-90 initiative, the National Meteorological Center (NMC), the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are to receive upgrades of interactive processing systems. This National Center Upgrade program will support the specialized inter-center communications, data acquisition, and processing needs of these centers. The missions, current capabilities and general functional requirements for the upgrade to the NSSFC are addressed. System capabilities are discussed along with the requirements for the upgraded system.

ESF EUROCORES Programmes In Geosciences And Environmental Sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonckheere, I. G.

2007-12-01

In close cooperation with its Member Organisations, the European Science Foundation (ESF) has launched since late 2003 a series of European Collaborative Research (EUROCORES) Programmes. Their aim is to enable researchers in different European countries to develop cooperation and scientific synergy in areas where European scale and scope are required in a global context. The EUROCORES Scheme provides an open, flexible and transparent framework that allows national science funding and science performing agencies to join forces to support excellent European-led research, following a selection among many science-driven suggestions for new Programmes themes submitted by the scientific community. The EUROCORES instrument represents the first large scale attempt of national research (funding) agencies to act together against fragmentation, asynchronicity and duplication of research (funding) within Europe. There are presently 7 EUROCORES Programmes specifically dealing with cutting edge science in the fields of Earth, Climate and Environmental Sciences. The EUROCORES Programmes consist of a number of international, multidisciplinary collaborative research projects running for 3-4 years, selected through independent peer review. Under the overall responsibility of the participating funding agencies, those projects are coordinated and networked together through the scientific guidance of a Scientific Committee, with the support of a Programme Coordinator, responsible at ESF for providing planning, logistics, and the integration and dissemination of science. Strong links are aimed for with other major international programmes and initiatives worldwide. In this framework, linkage to IYPE would be of major interest for the scientific communities involved. Each Programme mobilises 5 to 13 million Euros in direct science funding from 9 to 27 national agencies from 8 to 20 countries. Additional funding for coordination, networking and dissemination is allocated by the ESF through these distinctive research initiatives, to build on the national research efforts and contribute to the capacity building, in relation with typically about 15-20 post-doc positions and/or PhD studentships supported nationally within each Programme. Typical networking activities are topical workshops, open sessions in a larger conference, Programme conference, (summer / winter) schools, exchange visits across projects or programmes. Overall, EUROCORES Programmes are supported by more than 60 national agencies from 30 countries and by the European Science Foundation (ESF) with support by the European Commission, DG Research (Sixth Framework Programme, contract ERAS-CT-2003-980409). In the framework of AGU, a series of present EUROCORES Programmes in the field of Geosciences and Environmental Sciences are presented (e.g., EuroDIVERSITY, EuroDEEP, EUROMARGINS, EuroCLIMATE, and EuroMinScI).

Trends in methodological differences

Treesearch

Daniel J. Stynes; Malcolm I. Bevins; Tommy L. Brown

1980-01-01

Inconsistency in data collection has confounded attempts to identify and forecast outdoor recreation trends. Problems are highlighted through an evaluation of the methods employed in national outdoor recreation participation surveys and projections. Recommendations are advanced for improving data collection, trend measurement, and forecasting within outdoor recreation...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System ANALYSIS FORECAST MODEL GSI Gridpoint Statistical Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) 5830 University Research Court College Park, MD 20740 Page Author

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Statistics Observational Data Processing Data Assimilation Monsoon Desk Model Transition Seminars Seminar WEATHER RESEARCH and FORECASTING HMON HMON - OPERATIONAL HURRICANE FORECASTING WAVEWATCH III WAVEWATCH III Modeling Center NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) 5830 University Research Court

The Texas Children's Hospital immunization forecaster: conceptualization to implementation.

PubMed

Cunningham, Rachel M; Sahni, Leila C; Kerr, G Brady; King, Laura L; Bunker, Nathan A; Boom, Julie A

2014-12-01

Immunization forecasting systems evaluate patient vaccination histories and recommend the dates and vaccines that should be administered. We described the conceptualization, development, implementation, and distribution of a novel immunization forecaster, the Texas Children's Hospital (TCH) Forecaster. In 2007, TCH convened an internal expert team that included a pediatrician, immunization nurse, software engineer, and immunization subject matter experts to develop the TCH Forecaster. Our team developed the design of the model, wrote the software, populated the Excel tables, integrated the software, and tested the Forecaster. We created a table of rules that contained each vaccine's recommendations, minimum ages and intervals, and contraindications, which served as the basis for the TCH Forecaster. We created 15 vaccine tables that incorporated 79 unique dose states and 84 vaccine types to operationalize the entire United States recommended immunization schedule. The TCH Forecaster was implemented throughout the TCH system, the Indian Health Service, and the Virginia Department of Health. The TCH Forecast Tester is currently being used nationally. Immunization forecasting systems might positively affect adherence to vaccine recommendations. Efforts to support health care provider utilization of immunization forecasting systems and to evaluate their impact on patient care are needed.

Ensemble streamflow assimilation with the National Water Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafieeinasab, A.; McCreight, J. L.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Gochis, D.

2017-12-01

Through case studies of flooding across the US, we compare the performance of the National Water Model (NWM) data assimilation (DA) scheme to that of a newly implemented ensemble Kalman filter approach. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) is an operational implementation of the community WRF-Hydro modeling system. As of August 2016, the NWM forecasts of distributed hydrologic states and fluxes (including soil moisture, snowpack, ET, and ponded water) over the contiguous United States have been publicly disseminated by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) . It also provides streamflow forecasts at more than 2.7 million river reaches up to 30 days in advance. The NWM employs a nudging scheme to assimilate more than 6,000 USGS streamflow observations and provide initial conditions for its forecasts. A problem with nudging is how the forecasts relax quickly to open-loop bias in the forecast. This has been partially addressed by an experimental bias correction approach which was found to have issues with phase errors during flooding events. In this work, we present an ensemble streamflow data assimilation approach combining new channel-only capabilities of the NWM and HydroDART (a coupling of the offline WRF-Hydro model and NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed; DART). Our approach focuses on the single model state of discharge and incorporates error distributions on channel-influxes (overland and groundwater) in the assimilation via an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In order to avoid filter degeneracy associated with a limited number of ensemble at large scale, DART's covariance inflation (Anderson, 2009) and localization capabilities are implemented and evaluated. The current NWM data assimilation scheme is compared to preliminary results from the EnKF application for several flooding case studies across the US.

Financial sustainability planning for immunization services in Cambodia.

PubMed

Soeung, Sann Chan; Grundy, John; Maynard, Jim; Brooks, Alan; Boreland, Marian; Sarak, Duong; Jenkinson, Karl; Biggs, Beverley-Ann

2006-07-01

The expanded programme of immunization was established in Cambodia in 1986. In 2002, 67% of eligible children were immunized, despite significant health sector and macro-economic financial constraints. A financial sustainability planning process for immunization was introduced in 2002, in order to mobilize national and international resources in support of the achievement of child health objectives. The aim of this paper is to outline this process, describe its early impact as an advocacy tool and recommend additional strategies for mobilizing additional resources for health. The methods of financial sustainability planning are described, including the advocacy strategies that were applied. Analysis of financial sustainability planning results indicates rising programme costs associated with new vaccine introduction and new technologies. Despite this, the national programme has demonstrated important early successes in using financial sustainability planning to advocate for increased mobilization of national and international sources of funding for immunization. The national immunization programme nevertheless faces formidable system and financial challenges in the coming years associated with rising costs, potentially diminishing sources of international assistance, and the developing role of sub-national authorities in programme management and financing.

Acceleration, Transport, Forecasting and Impact of solar energetic particles in the framework of the 'HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malandraki, Olga; Klein, Karl-Ludwig; Vainio, Rami; Agueda, Neus; Nunez, Marlon; Heber, Bernd; Buetikofer, Rolf; Sarlanis, Christos; Crosby, Norma

2017-04-01

High-energy solar energetic particles (SEPs) emitted from the Sun are a major space weather hazard motivating the development of predictive capabilities. In this work, the current state of knowledge on the origin and forecasting of SEP events will be reviewed. Subsequently, we will present the EU HORIZON2020 HESPERIA (High Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis) project, its structure, its main scientific objectives and forecasting operational tools, as well as the added value to SEP research both from the observational as well as the SEP modelling perspective. The project addresses through multi-frequency observations and simulations the chain of processes from particle acceleration in the corona, particle transport in the magnetically complex corona and interplanetary space to the detection near 1 AU. Furthermore, publicly available software to invert neutron monitor observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared with space-borne measurements at lower energies is provided for the first time by HESPERIA. In order to achieve these goals, HESPERIA is exploiting already available large datasets stored in databases such as the neutron monitor database (NMDB) and SEPServer that were developed under EU FP7 projects from 2008 to 2013. Forecasting results of the two novel SEP operational forecasting tools published via the consortium server of 'HESPERIA' will be presented, as well as some scientific key results on the acceleration, transport and impact on Earth of high-energy particles. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.

Integrated Water Vapour Retrieval From Irish GPS Network: Results From Validation With Radiosondes And Microwave Profiler And Assimilation Into HIRLAM 7.2 Operational Forecasting Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanafin, J. A.; Whelan, E.; McGrath, R.; Jennings, S. G.; O'Dowd, C.

2009-12-01

Retrieval of atmospheric integrated water vapour (IWV) from ground-based GPS receivers and provision of this data product for meteorological applications is the focus of the European EUMETNET GPS water vapour programme. The results presented here are the first from a project to provide such information about the state of the atmosphere around Ireland for climate monitoring and improved numerical weather prediction. Two geodetic reference GPS receivers have been deployed at Valentia Observatory in Co. Kerry and Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station in Co. Galway, Ireland. A system to retrieve column-integrated atmospheric water vapour from the data they provide has been developed. Data quality has been assessed using co-located radiosondes at Valentia and observations from a microwave profiling radiometer at Mace Head. Results from the data processing and comparisons with independent observations will be presented. Water vapour retrievals from such sensors can provide good quality observations at hourly intervals of this essential climate variable for assimilation into numerical nowcast and forecast systems. Previous studies have shown that using these data to constrain initial model conditions can improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasts, particularly for heavy rainfall. The current operational forecast model in use at Met Éireann for the region is the new version 7.2 HIRLAM (High-Resolution Limited Area Model). The effects on the forecast for Ireland have been evaluated by assimilating the data into 48-hour forecast runs of this model and results of this study will also be presented.

Short-Term Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting Based on Sky Imaging and Pattern Recognition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, Brian S; Feng, Cong; Cui, Mingjian

Accurate short-term forecasting is crucial for solar integration in the power grid. In this paper, a classification forecasting framework based on pattern recognition is developed for 1-hour-ahead global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting. Three sets of models in the forecasting framework are trained by the data partitioned from the preprocessing analysis. The first two sets of models forecast GHI for the first four daylight hours of each day. Then the GHI values in the remaining hours are forecasted by an optimal machine learning model determined based on a weather pattern classification model in the third model set. The weather pattern ismore » determined by a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. The developed framework is validated by the GHI and sky imaging data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Results show that the developed short-term forecasting framework outperforms the persistence benchmark by 16% in terms of the normalized mean absolute error and 25% in terms of the normalized root mean square error.« less

Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market.

PubMed

Kim, Taegu; Hong, Jungsik; Kang, Pilsung

2017-01-01

Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM) effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS) are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA), based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered.

Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market

PubMed Central

Kim, Taegu; Hong, Jungsik

2017-01-01

Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM) effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS) are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA), based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered. PMID:28819355

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Global Observing System for Total Lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Koshak, W.; Buechler, D.; Carey, L.; Chronis, T.; Mach, D.; Bateman, M.; Peterson, H.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.;

Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

2014-01-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

ADAS Update and Maintainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2010-01-01

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service Melbourne (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have used a local data integration system (LOIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LOIS was developed by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (AD AS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features. Over the years, the LDIS has become problematic to maintain since it depends on AMU-developed shell scripts that were written for an earlier version of the ADAS software. The goals of this task were to update the NWS MLB/SMG LDIS with the latest version of ADAS, incorporate new sources of observational data, and upgrade and modify the AMU-developed shell scripts written to govern the system. In addition, the previously developed ADAS graphical user interface (GUI) was updated. Operationally, these upgrades will result in more accurate depictions of the current local environment to help with short-range weather forecasting applications, while also offering an improved initialization for local versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model used by both groups.

The potential predictability of fire danger provided by ECMWF forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giuseppe, Francesca

2017-04-01

The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), is currently being developed in the framework of the Copernicus Emergency Management Services to monitor and forecast fire danger in Europe. The system provides timely information to civil protection authorities in 38 nations across Europe and mostly concentrates on flagging regions which might be at high danger of spontaneous ignition due to persistent drought. The daily predictions of fire danger conditions are based on the US Forest Service National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), the Canadian forest service Fire Weather Index Rating System (FWI) and the Australian McArthur (MARK-5) rating systems. Weather forcings are provided in real time by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasting system. The global system's potential predictability is assessed using re-analysis fields as weather forcings. The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4) provides 11 years of observed burned areas from satellite measurements and is used as a validation dataset. The fire indices implemented are good predictors to highlight dangerous conditions. High values are correlated with observed fire and low values correspond to non observed events. A more quantitative skill evaluation was performed using the Extremal Dependency Index which is a skill score specifically designed for rare events. It revealed that the three indices were more skilful on a global scale than the random forecast to detect large fires. The performance peaks in the boreal forests, in the Mediterranean, the Amazon rain-forests and southeast Asia. The skill-scores were then aggregated at country level to reveal which nations could potentiallty benefit from the system information in aid of decision making and fire control support. Overall we found that fire danger modelling based on weather forecasts, can provide reasonable predictability over large parts of the global landmass.

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan; Kozlowski, Danielle; Molthan, Andrew

2012-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting entities, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT transitions real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is applying convection-allowing numerical models to predict mesoscale convective weather. In order to address this specific forecast challenge, SPoRT produces real-time mesoscale model forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that includes unique NASA products and capabilities. Currently, the SPoRT configuration of the WRF model (SPoRT-WRF) incorporates the 4-km Land Information System (LIS) land surface data, 1-km SPoRT sea surface temperature analysis and 1-km Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) analysis, and retrieved thermodynamic profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The LIS, SST, and GVF data are all integrated into the SPoRT-WRF through adjustments to the initial and boundary conditions, and the AIRS data are assimilated into a 9-hour SPoRT WRF forecast each day at 0900 UTC. This study dissects the overall impact of the NASA datasets and the individual surface and atmospheric component datasets on daily mesoscale forecasts. A case study covering the super tornado outbreak across the Ce ntral and Southeastern United States during 25-27 April 2011 is examined. Three different forecasts are analyzed including the SPoRT-WRF (NASA surface and atmospheric data), the SPoRT WRF without AIRS (NASA surface data only), and the operational National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF (control with no NASA data). The forecasts are compared qualitatively by examining simulated versus observed radar reflectivity. Differences between the simulated reflectivity are further investigated using convective parameters along with model soundings to determine the impacts of the various NASA datasets. Additionally, quantitative evaluation of select meteorological parameters is performed using the Meteorological Evaluation Tools model verification package to compare forecasts to in situ surface and upper air observations.

Towards the Operational Ensemble-based Data Assimilation System for the Wave Field at the National Weather Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flampouris, Stylianos; Penny, Steve; Alves, Henrique

2017-04-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides the operational wave forecast for the US National Weather Service (NWS). Given the continuous efforts to improve forecast, NCEP is developing an ensemble-based data assimilation system, based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), the existing operational global wave ensemble system (GWES) and on satellite and in-situ observations. While the LETKF was designed for atmospheric applications (Hunt et al 2007), and has been adapted for several ocean models (e.g. Penny 2016), this is the first time applied for oceanic waves assimilation. This new wave assimilation system provides a global estimation of the surface sea state and its approximate uncertainty. It achieves this by analyzing the 21-member ensemble of the significant wave height provided by GWES every 6h. Observations from four altimeters and all the available in-situ measurements are used in this analysis. The analysis of the significant wave height is used for initializing the next forecasting cycle; the data assimilation system is currently being tested for operational use.

Human-model hybrid Korean air quality forecasting system.

PubMed

Chang, Lim-Seok; Cho, Ara; Park, Hyunju; Nam, Kipyo; Kim, Deokrae; Hong, Ji-Hyoung; Song, Chang-Keun

2016-09-01

The Korean national air quality forecasting system, consisting of the Weather Research and Forecasting, the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions, and the Community Modeling and Analysis (CMAQ), commenced from August 31, 2013 with target pollutants of particulate matters (PM) and ozone. Factors contributing to PM forecasting accuracy include CMAQ inputs of meteorological field and emissions, forecasters' capacity, and inherent CMAQ limit. Four numerical experiments were conducted including two global meteorological inputs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Unified Model (UM), two emissions from the Model Intercomparison Study Asia (MICS-Asia) and the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-B) for the Northeast Asia with Clear Air Policy Support System (CAPSS) for South Korea, and data assimilation of the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC). Significant PM underpredictions by using both emissions were found for PM mass and major components (sulfate and organic carbon). CMAQ predicts PM2.5 much better than PM10 (NMB of PM2.5: -20~-25%, PM10: -43~-47%). Forecasters' error usually occurred at the next day of high PM event. Once CMAQ fails to predict high PM event the day before, forecasters are likely to dismiss the model predictions on the next day which turns out to be true. The best combination of CMAQ inputs is the set of UM global meteorological field, MICS-Asia and CAPSS 2010 emissions with the NMB of -12.3%, the RMSE of 16.6μ/m(3) and the R(2) of 0.68. By using MACC data as an initial and boundary condition, the performance skill of CMAQ would be improved, especially in the case of undefined coarse emission. A variety of methods such as ensemble and data assimilation are considered to improve further the accuracy of air quality forecasting, especially for high PM events to be comparable to for all cases. The growing utilization of the air quality forecast induced the public strongly to demand that the accuracy of the national forecasting be improved. In this study, we investigated the problems in the current forecasting as well as various alternatives to solve the problems. Such efforts to improve the accuracy of the forecast are expected to contribute to the protection of public health by increasing the availability of the forecast system.

Science in 60 - The Forecast Calls for Flu

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Del Valle, Sara

What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus, or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara Del Valle and her team from Los Alamos National Laboratory have developed a global disease-forecasting system that will improve the way we respond to epidemics. Using this model, individuals and public health officials can monitor disease incidence and implement strategies — such as vaccination campaigns, communicating to the public and allocating resources — to stay one step ahead of infectious disease spread.

Temporal patterns and a disease forecasting model of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Jakarta based on 10 years of surveillance data.

PubMed

Sitepu, Monika S; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Luplerdlop, Nathanej; Soonthornworasiri, Ngamphol; Silawan, Tassanee; Poungsombat, Supawadee; Lawpoolsri, Saranath

2013-03-01

This study aimed to describe the temporal patterns of dengue transmission in Jakarta from 2001 to 2010, using data from the national surveillance system. The Box-Jenkins forecasting technique was used to develop a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the study period and subsequently applied to forecast DHF incidence in 2011 in Jakarta Utara, Jakarta Pusat, Jakarta Barat, and the municipalities of Jakarta Province. Dengue incidence in 2011, based on the forecasting model was predicted to increase from the previous year.

Linking farmers to community stores to increase consumption of local produce: a case study of the Navajo Nation.

PubMed

Setala, Ashley; Gittelsohn, Joel; Speakman, Kristen; Oski, Jane; Martin, Tammy; Moore, Regina; Tohannie, Marcella; Bleich, Sara N

2011-09-01

To understand the barriers to farmer participation in Farm-to-Table (F2T) programmes and to identify possible solutions to these obstacles. Cross-sectional analysis of farmer perspectives on F2T programmes. Three service units on the Navajo Nation (Chinle, Tuba City and Fort Defiance). Forty-four Navajo farmers. Most participants reported that farming on the Navajo Nation is getting harder (61 %) but that it is very important to maintain Navajo farming traditions (98 %). A modest number of farmers (43 %) expressed interest in participating in an F2T programme. All farmers reported that childhood obesity was a very serious or serious problem in the Navajo Nation. The farmers expressed support for an F2T programme if key barriers to farming, including water access and pest control, could be addressed. Key barriers to participation identified included lack of fruits and vegetables to sell, sale price of crops and lack of certification of produce by the US Food and Drug Administration. Navajo farmers are aware of the burden of childhood obesity on the Navajo Nation and feel that an F2T programme could be beneficial. To successfully implement a Farm-to-Table programme, the barriers to participation identified will need to be addressed.

Accreditation of Library and Information Science Programmes in the Gulf Cooperation Council Nations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rehman, Sajjad ur

2012-01-01

This paper investigates the accreditation possibilities and prospects for the library and information science education programmes located in the six member nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council. This paper has been based on the findings of a study focused on the evaluation practices of these programmes and the perceptions of the leading…

Challenging Ideological Environments: International Teachers' Experiences in an Outside-of-Country Teacher Training Programme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gutierrez, Amanda

2016-01-01

Teacher training for developing nation contexts is often conducted in short, intensive inside and outside-of-country programmes. Concerns have been raised in relation to the uncritical take-up of the western-centric material provided by these programmes, which are usually funded by national and international government organizations. This paper…

Collaborative Framework for Designing a Sustainability Science Programme: Lessons Learned at the National Autonomous University of Mexico

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charli-Joseph, Lakshmi; Escalante, Ana E.; Eakin, Hallie; Solares, Ma. José; Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa; Nation, Marcia; Gómez-Priego, Paola; Pérez-Tejada, César A. Domínguez; Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The authors describe the challenges and opportunities associated with developing an interdisciplinary sustainability programme in an emerging economy and illustrate how these are addressed through the approach taken for the development of the first postgraduate programme (MSc and PhD) in sustainability science at the National Autonomous…

The National Singing Programme for Primary Schools in England: An Initial Baseline Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welch, G. F.; Himonides, E.; Papageorgi, I.; Saunders, J.; Rinta, T.; Stewart, C.; Preti, C.; Lani, J.; Vraka, M.; Hill, J.

2009-01-01

The "Sing Up" National Singing Programme for primary schools in England was launched in November 2007 under the UK government's "Music Manifesto". "Sing Up" is a four-year programme whose overall aim is to raise the status of singing and increase opportunities for children throughout the country to enjoy singing as…

Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

DOE PAGES

Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; ...

2014-12-23

We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltanzadeh, I.; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G. A.

2011-07-01

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS & DATA SOURCES Probabilistic Forecasts of Quantitative Precipitation from the NCEP Predictability Research with Indian Monsoon Examples - PDF - 28 Mar 2005 North American Ensemble Forecast System QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION *PQPF* In these charts, the probability that 24-hour precipitation amounts over a

An Interim Update to the 2035 Socioeconomic and Travel Demand Forecasts for Virginia

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

In support of the update to Virginias 2035 Statewide Multimodal Plan, this report provides an update to select : socioeconomic forecasts initially made in 2009 based on a review of data from national sources and the literature. Mobility : needs ex...

An interim update to the 2035 socioeconomic and travel demand forecasts for Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-09-01

"In support of the update to Virginias 2035 Statewide Multimodal Plan, this report provides an update to select : socioeconomic forecasts initially made in 2009 based on a review of data from national sources and the literature. Mobility : needs e...

An interim update to the 2035 socioeconomic and travel demand forecasts for Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

In support of the update to Virginias 2035 Statewide Multimodal Plan, this report provides an update to select : socioeconomic forecasts initially made in 2009 based on a review of data from national sources and the literature. Mobility : needs ex...

Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giebel, G.; Cline, J.; Frank, H.; Shaw, W.; Pinson, P.; Hodge, B.-M.; Kariniotakis, G.; Madsen, J.; Möhrlen, C.

2016-09-01

This paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.

The quality and value of seasonal precipitation forecasts for an early warning of large-scale droughts and floods in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliefernicht, Jan; Seidel, Jochen; Salack, Seyni; Waongo, Moussa; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

Seasonal precipitation forecasts are a crucial source of information for an early warning of hydro-meteorological extremes in West Africa. However, the current seasonal forecasting system used by the West African weather services in the framework of the West African Climate Outlook forum (PRESAO) is limited to probabilistic precipitation forecasts of 1-month lead time. To improve this provision, we use an ensemble-based quantile-quantile transformation for bias correction of precipitation forecasts provided by a global seasonal ensemble prediction system, the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFS2). The statistical technique eliminates systematic differences between global forecasts and observations with the potential to preserve the signal from the model. The technique has also the advantage that it can be easily implemented at national weather services with low capacities. The statistical technique is used to generate probabilistic forecasts of monthly and seasonal precipitation amount and other precipitation indices useful for an early warning of large-scale drought and floods in West Africa. The evaluation of the statistical technique is done using CFS hindcasts (1982 to 2009) in a cross-validation mode to determine the performance of the precipitation forecasts for several lead times focusing on drought and flood events depicted over the Volta and Niger basins. In addition, operational forecasts provided by PRESAO are analyzed from 1998 to 2015. The precipitation forecasts are compared to low-skill reference forecasts generated from gridded observations (i.e. GPCC, CHIRPS) and a novel in-situ gauge database from national observation networks (see Poster EGU2017-10271). The forecasts are evaluated using state-of-the-art verification techniques to determine specific quality attributes of probabilistic forecasts such as reliability, accuracy and skill. In addition, cost-loss approaches are used to determine the value of probabilistic forecasts for multiple users in warning situations. The outcomes of the hindcasts experiment for the Volta basin illustrate that the statistical technique can clearly improve the CFS precipitation forecasts with the potential to provide skillful and valuable early precipitation warnings for large-scale drought and flood situations several months in ahead. In this presentation we give a detailed overview about the ensemble-based quantile-quantile-transformation, its validation and verification and the possibilities of this technique to complement PRESAO. We also highlight the performance of this technique for extremes such as the Sahel drought in the 80ties and in comparison to the various reference data sets (e.g. CFS2, PRESAO, observational data sets) used in this study.

The real-time SEP forecasting tools of the 'HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malandraki, Olga E.; Nunez, Marlon; Heber, Bernd; Labrenz, Johannes; Posner, Arik; Milas, Nick; Tsiropoula, Georgia; Pavlos, Evgenios; Sarlanis, Christos

2017-04-01

In this study, we describe the two real-time prediction tools, that have been developed in the framework of the HESPERIA project based upon the proven concepts UMASEP and REleASE. A major impact on human and robotic space exploration activities is the sudden and prompt occurrence of solar energetic ion events. The fact that near-relativistic electrons (1 MeV electrons have 95% of the speed of light) travel faster than ions (30 MeV protons have 25% of the speed of light) and are always present in Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events can be used to forecast the arrival of protons from SEP events with real-time measurements of near relativistic electrons. The faster electrons arrive at L1 30 to 90 minutes before the slower protons. The Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) forecasting scheme (Posner, 2007) uses this effect to predict the proton flux by utilizing the actual electron flux and the increase of the electron flux in the last 60 minutes. In the framework of the HESPERIA project, a clone of the REleASE system was built in the open source programming language PYTHON. The same forecasting principle with use of the same forecasting matrices were in addition adapted to real-time electron flux measurements from the Electron, Proton & Alpha Monitor (EPAM) onboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). It is shown, that the REleASE forecasting scheme can be adapted to work with any near relativistic electron flux measurements. Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are sometimes energetic enough and the flux is high enough to cause air showers in the stratosphere and in the troposphere, which are an important ionization source in the atmosphere. >500 MeV solar protons are so energetic that they usually have effects on the ground, producing what is called a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) event. Within the HESPERIA project a predictor of >500 SEP proton events at the near-earth (e.g. at geostationary orbit) has been developed. In order to predict these events, the UMASEP scheme (Núñez, 2011, 2015) has been used. UMASEP makes a lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic (EM) flux with the particle flux at near-earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then the UMASEP scheme issues a SEP prediction. In the case of the prediction of >500 MeV SEP events, the implemented system, called UMASEP-500, correlates X-ray flux with each of the differential proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellites, and with each of the neutron density fluxes collected by neutron monitor stations around the world. When the correlation estimation surpasses a threshold, and the associated flare is greater than a specific X-ray peak flux, a >500 MeV SEP forecast is issued. Both forecasting tools are operational under the HESPERIA server maintained at the National Observatory of Athens. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324 (HESPERIA project).

An oral health education programme based on the National Curriculum.

PubMed

Chapman, A; Copestake, S J; Duncan, K

2006-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a teaching programme based on the national curriculum for use in a primary school setting. National Curriculum guidelines were combined with oral health education messages to draw up lesson plans for teachers to deliver. A questionnaire was used to demonstrate children's oral health knowledge prior to the teaching programme, and at 1 and 7 weeks following the programme. The study took place in inner-city, state-run primary schools in Manchester and North London, UK. The subjects were children between the ages of 7 and 8 years from Manchester (n = 58) and North London (n = 30). The main outcome measure was change in knowledge attributable to a newly developed teaching programme. The children in Manchester had a higher level of knowledge prior to the teaching programme. Following the teaching programme, children in both schools showed a significant improvement in dental health knowledge (P < 0.001). Seven weeks later, the Manchester children showed no significant loss of knowledge (P < 0.001). The aims of the National Curriculum were easily integrated with oral health messages. A more widely available teaching resource, such as the one described in this study, would be useful to encourage the teaching profession to take on oral health education without more costly input from dental professionals.

[National health resources for highly specialised medicine].

PubMed

Bratlid, Dag; Rasmussen, Knut

2005-11-03

In order to monitor quality and efficiency in the use of health resources for highly specialised medicine, a National Professional Council has since 1990 advised the Norwegian health authorities on the establishing and localisation of such services. A comprehensive review of both the quality, economy and the geographical distribution of patients in each specialised service has been carried out. 33 defined national programmes were centralised to one hospital only and distributed among seven university hospitals. Eight multiregional programmes were centralised to two hospitals only and included four university hospitals. In 2001, a total of 2711 new patients were treated in these programmes. The system seems to have secured a sufficient patient flow to each programme so as to maintain quality. However, a geographically skewed distribution of patients was noted, particularly in some of the national programmes. In a small country like Norway, with 4.5 million inhabitants, a centralised monitoring of highly specialised medicine seems both rational and successful. By the same logic, however, international cooperation should probably be sought for the smallest patient groups.

OceanNOMADS: Real-time and retrospective access to operational U.S. ocean prediction products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, J. M.; Cross, S. L.; Bub, F.; Ji, M.

2011-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) provides both real-time and archived atmospheric model output from servers at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) respectively (http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/txt_descriptions/marRutledge-1.pdf). The NOAA National Ocean Data Center (NODC) with NCEP is developing a complementary capability called OceanNOMADS for operational ocean prediction models. An NCEP ftp server currently provides real-time ocean forecast output (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml) with retrospective access through NODC. A joint effort between the Northern Gulf Institute (NGI; a NOAA Cooperative Institute) and the NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC; a division of NODC) created the developmental version of the retrospective OceanNOMADS capability (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/ocean_nomads.php) under the NGI Ecosystem Data Assembly Center (EDAC) project (http://www.northerngulfinstitute.org/edac/). Complementary funding support for the developmental OceanNOMADS from U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) through the Southeastern University Research Association (SURA) Model Testbed (http://testbed.sura.org/) this past year provided NODC the analogue that facilitated the creation of an NCDDC production version of OceanNOMADS (http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/ocean-nomads/). Access tool development and storage of initial archival data sets occur on the NGI/NCDDC developmental servers with transition to NODC/NCCDC production servers as the model archives mature and operational space and distribution capability grow. Navy operational global ocean forecast subsets for U.S waters comprise the initial ocean prediction fields resident on the NCDDC production server. The NGI/NCDDC developmental server currently includes the Naval Research Laboratory Inter-America Seas Nowcast/Forecast System over the Gulf of Mexico from 2004-Mar 2011, the operational Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) regional USEast ocean nowcast/forecast system from early 2009 to present, and the NAVOCEANO operational regional AMSEAS (Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean) ocean nowcast/forecast system from its inception 25 June 2010 to present. AMSEAS provided one of the real-time ocean forecast products accessed by NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration from the NGI/NCDDC developmental OceanNOMADS during the Deep Water Horizon oil spill last year. The developmental server also includes archived, real-time Navy coastal forecast products off coastal Japan in support of U.S./Japanese joint efforts following the 2011 tsunami. Real-time NAVOCEANO output from regional prediction systems off Southern California and around Hawaii, currently available on the NCEP ftp server, are scheduled for archival on the developmental OceanNOMADS by late 2011 along with the next generation Navy/NOAA global ocean prediction output. Accession and archival of additional regions is planned as server capacities increase.

'The one with the purse makes policy': Power, problem definition, framing and maternal health policies and programmes evolution in national level institutionalised policy making processes in Ghana.

PubMed

Koduah, Augustina; Agyepong, Irene Akua; van Dijk, Han

2016-10-01

This paper seeks to advance our understanding of health policy agenda setting and formulation processes in a lower middle income country, Ghana, by exploring how and why maternal health policies and programmes appeared and evolved on the health sector programme of work agenda between 2002 and 2012. We theorized that the appearance of a policy or programme on the agenda and its fate within the programme of work is predominately influenced by how national level decision makers use their sources of power to define maternal health problems and frame their policy narratives. National level decision makers used their power sources as negotiation tools to frame maternal health issues and design maternal health policies and programmes within the framework of the national health sector programme of work. The power sources identified included legal and structural authority; access to authority by way of political influence; control over and access to resources (mainly financial); access to evidence in the form of health sector performance reviews and demographic health surveys; and knowledge of national plans such as Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy. Understanding of power sources and their use as negotiation tools in policy development should not be ignored in the pursuit of transformative change and sustained improvement in health systems in low- and middle income countries (LMIC). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Medium-range reference evapotranspiration forecasts for the contiguous United States based on multi-model numerical weather predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, Hanoi; Tian, Di; Srivastava, Puneet; Pelosi, Anna; Chirico, Giovanni B.

2018-07-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in agronomic, forestry, and water resources management. Estimating and forecasting ET0 have long been recognized as a major challenge for researchers and practitioners in these communities. This work explored the potential of multiple leading numerical weather predictions (NWPs) for estimating and forecasting summer ET0 at 101 U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network stations over nine climate regions across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three leading global NWP model forecasts from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset were used in this study, including the single model ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office forecasts (MO), as well as multi-model ensemble forecasts from the combinations of these NWP models. A regression calibration was employed to bias correct the ET0 forecasts. Impact of individual forecast variables on ET0 forecasts were also evaluated. The results showed that the EC forecasts provided the least error and highest skill and reliability, followed by the MO and NCEP forecasts. The multi-model ensembles constructed from the combination of EC and MO forecasts provided slightly better performance than the single model EC forecasts. The regression process greatly improved ET0 forecast performances, particularly for the regions involving stations near the coast, or with a complex orography. The performance of EC forecasts was only slightly influenced by the size of the ensemble members, particularly at short lead times. Even with less ensemble members, EC still performed better than the other two NWPs. Errors in the radiation forecasts, followed by those in the wind, had the most detrimental effects on the ET0 forecast performances.

Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2012-12-01

The New York City water supply system operated by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) serves nine million people. It covers 2,000 square miles of portions of the Catskill, Delaware, and Croton watersheds, and it includes nineteen reservoirs and three controlled lakes. DEP is developing an Operations Support Tool (OST) to support its water supply operations and planning activities. OST includes historical and real-time data, a model of the water supply system complete with operating rules, and lake water quality models developed to evaluate alternatives for managing turbidity in the New York City Catskill reservoirs. OST will enable DEP to manage turbidity in its unfiltered system while satisfying its primary objective of meeting the City's water supply needs, in addition to considering secondary objectives of maintaining ecological flows, supporting fishery and recreation releases, and mitigating downstream flood peaks. The current version of OST relies on statistical forecasts of flows in the system based on recent observed flows. To improve short-term decision making, plans are being made to transition to National Weather Service (NWS) ensemble forecasts based on hydrologic models that account for short-term weather forecast skill, longer-term climate information, as well as the hydrologic state of the watersheds and recent observed flows. To ensure that the ensemble forecasts are unbiased and that the ensemble spread reflects the actual uncertainty of the forecasts, a statistical model has been developed to post-process the NWS ensemble forecasts to account for hydrologic model error as well as any inherent bias and uncertainty in initial model states, meteorological data and forecasts. The post-processor is designed to produce adjusted ensemble forecasts that are consistent with the DEP historical flow sequences that were used to develop the system operating rules. A set of historical hindcasts that is representative of the real-time ensemble forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.

How Satellites Have Contributed to Building a Weather Ready Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapenta, W.

2017-12-01

NOAA's primary mission since its inception has been to reduce the loss of life and property, as well as disruptions from, high impact weather and water-related events. In recent years, significant societal losses resulting even from well forecast extreme events have shifted attention from the forecast alone toward ensuring societal response is equal to the risks that exist for communities, businesses and the public. The responses relate to decisions ranging from coastal communities planning years in advance to mitigate impacts from rising sea level, to immediate lifesaving decisions such as a family seeking adequate shelter during a tornado warning. NOAA is committed to building a "Weather-Ready Nation" where communities are prepared for and respond appropriately to these events. The Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) strategic priority is building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, climate and environmental threats. To build a Weather-Ready Nation, NOAA is enhancing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS), transitioning science and technology advances into forecast operations, applying social science research to improve the communication and usefulness of information, and expanding its dissemination efforts to achieve far-reaching readiness, responsiveness and resilience. These four components of Weather-Ready Nation are helping ensure NOAA data, products and services are fully utilized to minimize societal impacts from extreme events. Satellite data and satellite products have been important elements of the national Weather Service (NWS) operations for more than 40 years. When one examines the uses of satellite data specific to the internal forecast and warning operations of NWS, two main applications are evident. The first is the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction models; the second is the use of satellite imagery and derived products for mesoscale and short-range weather warning and prediction. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the value of the satellite component of the global observing system to NWS operational weather forecasting and emphasize how these data form a critical component of the NWS ability to protect life and property and ensure economic well-being.

A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method.

PubMed

Yang, Jun-He; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Chan, Chia-Pan

2017-01-01

Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir's water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heim, R. R.; Brewer, M.

2012-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a recent meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

2014-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Mapping Using Streamflow Ensembles and Multiple Hydraulic Modeling Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseiny, S. M. H.; Zarzar, C.; Gomez, M.; Siddique, R.; Smith, V.; Mejia, A.; Demir, I.

2016-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM) provides a platform for operationalize nationwide flood inundation forecasting and mapping. The ability to model flood inundation on a national scale will provide invaluable information to decision makers and local emergency officials. Often, forecast products use deterministic model output to provide a visual representation of a single inundation scenario, which is subject to uncertainty from various sources. While this provides a straightforward representation of the potential inundation, the inherent uncertainty associated with the model output should be considered to optimize this tool for decision making support. The goal of this study is to produce ensembles of future flood inundation conditions (i.e. extent, depth, and velocity) to spatially quantify and visually assess uncertainties associated with the predicted flood inundation maps. The setting for this study is located in a highly urbanized watershed along the Darby Creek in Pennsylvania. A forecasting framework coupling the NWM with multiple hydraulic models was developed to produce a suite ensembles of future flood inundation predictions. Time lagged ensembles from the NWM short range forecasts were used to account for uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecasts. The forecasts from the NWM were input to iRIC and HEC-RAS two-dimensional software packages, from which water extent, depth, and flow velocity were output. Quantifying the agreement between output ensembles for each forecast grid provided the uncertainty metrics for predicted flood water inundation extent, depth, and flow velocity. For visualization, a series of flood maps that display flood extent, water depth, and flow velocity along with the underlying uncertainty associated with each of the forecasted variables were produced. The results from this study demonstrate the potential to incorporate and visualize model uncertainties in flood inundation maps in order to identify the high flood risk zones.

Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

2016-04-01

Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

EMISSIONS PROCESSING FOR THE ETA/ CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

NOAA and EPA have created an Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system. This AQF system links an adaptation of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality Model with the 12 kilometer ETA model running operationally at NOAA's National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP). One of the...

Forecasting Enrollment in Intensive English Language Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davidson, Joseph O.; Mead, Linda

The development of a successful short-range forecasting model for predicting enrollment in a university intensive English course began with examination of the characteristics (nationality, enrollment patterns, persistence) of both course participants and no-shows; the resulting figures revealed consistent patterns for country of origin and for…

THE EMERGENCE OF NUMERICAL AIR QUALITY FORCASTING MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

In recent years the U.S. and other nations have begun programs for short-term local through regional air quality forecasting based upon numerical three-dimensional air quality grid models. These numerical air quality forecast (NAQF) models and systems have been developed and test...

Assessment of WRF Simulated Precipitation by Meteorological Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagenhoff, Brooke Anne

This study evaluated warm-season precipitation events in a multi-year (2007-2014) database of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over the Northern Plains and Southern Great Plains. These WRF simulations were run daily in support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) for operational forecasts. Evaluating model skill by synoptic pattern allows for an understanding of how model performance varies with particular atmospheric states and will aid forecasters with pattern recognition. To conduct this analysis, a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) was used. SOMs allow the user to represent atmospheric patterns in an array of nodes that represent a continuum of synoptic categorizations. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data during the warm season (April-September) was used to perform the synoptic typing over the study domains. Simulated precipitation was evaluated against observations provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analysis.

A Diagnostics Tool to detect ensemble forecast system anomaly and guide operational decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, G. H.; Srivastava, A.; Shrestha, E.; Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Draijer, S.

2017-12-01

The hydrologic community is moving toward using ensemble forecasts to take uncertainty into account during the decision-making process. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) implements several types of ensemble forecasts in their decision-making process: ensemble products for a statistical model (Hirsch and enhanced Hirsch); the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) forecasts based on the classical Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique; and the new NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service (HEFS) forecasts. To remove structural error and apply the forecasts to additional forecast points, the DEP post processes both the AHPS and the HEFS forecasts. These ensemble forecasts provide mass quantities of complex data, and drawing conclusions from these forecasts is time-consuming and difficult. The complexity of these forecasts also makes it difficult to identify system failures resulting from poor data, missing forecasts, and server breakdowns. To address these issues, we developed a diagnostic tool that summarizes ensemble forecasts and provides additional information such as historical forecast statistics, forecast skill, and model forcing statistics. This additional information highlights the key information that enables operators to evaluate the forecast in real-time, dynamically interact with the data, and review additional statistics, if needed, to make better decisions. We used Bokeh, a Python interactive visualization library, and a multi-database management system to create this interactive tool. This tool compiles and stores data into HTML pages that allows operators to readily analyze the data with built-in user interaction features. This paper will present a brief description of the ensemble forecasts, forecast verification results, and the intended applications for the diagnostic tool.

Evaluation of the national roll-out of parenting programmes across England: the parenting early intervention programme (PEIP)

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Evidence based parenting programmes can improve parenting skills and the behaviour of children exhibiting, or at risk of developing, antisocial behaviour. In order to develop a public policy for delivering these programmes it is necessary not only to demonstrate their efficacy through rigorous trials but also to determine that they can be rolled out on a large scale. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the UK government funded national implementation of its Parenting Early Intervention Programme, a national roll-out of parenting programmes for parents of children 8–13 years in all 152 local authorities (LAs) across England. Building upon our study of the Pathfinder (2006–08) implemented in 18 LAs. To the best of our knowledge this is the first comparative study of a national roll-out of parenting programmes and the first study of parents of children 8–13 years. Methods The UK government funded English LAs to implement one or more of five evidence based programmes (later increased to eight): Triple P, Incredible Years, Strengthening Families Strengthening Communities, Families and Schools Together (FAST), and the Strengthening Families Programme (10–14). Parents completed measures of parenting style (laxness and over-reactivity), and mental well-being, and also child behaviour at three time points: pre- and post-course and again one year later. Results 6143 parents from 43 LAs were included in the study of whom 3325 provided post-test data and 1035 parents provided data at one-year follow up. There were significant improvements for each programme, with effect sizes (Cohen’s d) for the combined sample of 0.72 parenting laxness, 0.85 parenting over-reactivity, 0.79 parent mental well-being, and 0.45 for child conduct problems. These improvements were largely maintained one year later. All four programmes for which we had sufficient data for comparison were effective. There were generally larger effects on both parent and child measures for Triple P, but not all between programme comparisons were significant. Results for the targeted group of parents of children 8–13 years were very similar. Conclusions Evidence-based parenting programmes can be rolled out effectively in community settings on a national scale. This study also demonstrates the impact of research on shaping government policy. PMID:24138747

Evaluation of the national roll-out of parenting programmes across England: the parenting early intervention programme (PEIP).

PubMed

Lindsay, Geoff; Strand, Steve

2013-10-19

Evidence based parenting programmes can improve parenting skills and the behaviour of children exhibiting, or at risk of developing, antisocial behaviour. In order to develop a public policy for delivering these programmes it is necessary not only to demonstrate their efficacy through rigorous trials but also to determine that they can be rolled out on a large scale. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the UK government funded national implementation of its Parenting Early Intervention Programme, a national roll-out of parenting programmes for parents of children 8-13 years in all 152 local authorities (LAs) across England. Building upon our study of the Pathfinder (2006-08) implemented in 18 LAs. To the best of our knowledge this is the first comparative study of a national roll-out of parenting programmes and the first study of parents of children 8-13 years. The UK government funded English LAs to implement one or more of five evidence based programmes (later increased to eight): Triple P, Incredible Years, Strengthening Families Strengthening Communities, Families and Schools Together (FAST), and the Strengthening Families Programme (10-14). Parents completed measures of parenting style (laxness and over-reactivity), and mental well-being, and also child behaviour at three time points: pre- and post-course and again one year later. 6143 parents from 43 LAs were included in the study of whom 3325 provided post-test data and 1035 parents provided data at one-year follow up. There were significant improvements for each programme, with effect sizes (Cohen's d) for the combined sample of 0.72 parenting laxness, 0.85 parenting over-reactivity, 0.79 parent mental well-being, and 0.45 for child conduct problems. These improvements were largely maintained one year later. All four programmes for which we had sufficient data for comparison were effective. There were generally larger effects on both parent and child measures for Triple P, but not all between programme comparisons were significant. Results for the targeted group of parents of children 8-13 years were very similar. Evidence-based parenting programmes can be rolled out effectively in community settings on a national scale. This study also demonstrates the impact of research on shaping government policy.

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Integrating Salinity Measurements from Aquarius into the Harmful Algal Blooms Observing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Daniel; Lewis, David; Hilbert, Kent

2007-01-01

This Candidate Solution suggests the use of Aquarius sea surface salinity measurements to improve the NOAA/NCDDC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s National Coastal Data Development Center) HABSOS (Harmful Algal Blooms Observing System) DST (decision support tool) by enhancing development and movement forecasts of HAB events as well as potential species identification. In the proposed configuration, recurring salinity measurements from the Aquarius mission would augment HABSOS sea surface temperature and in situ ocean current measurements. Thermohaline circulation observations combined with in situ measurements increase the precision of HAB event movement forecasting. These forecasts allow coastal managers and public health officials to make more accurate and timely warnings to the public and to better direct science teams to event sites for collection and further measurements.

Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the national energy modeling system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This reference document provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. The NEMS Residential Sector Demand Module is currently used for mid-term forecasting purposes and energy policy analysis over the forecast horizon of 1993 through 2020. The model generates forecasts of energy demand for the residential sector by service, fuel, and Census Division. Policy impacts resulting from new technologies,more » market incentives, and regulatory changes can be estimated using the module. 26 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay.

PubMed

Jacobs, J M; Rhodes, M; Brown, C W; Hood, R R; Leight, A; Long, W; Wood, R

2014-11-01

To construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters of Chesapeake Bay for implementation in ecological forecasting systems. We evaluated and applied previously published qPCR assays to water samples (n = 1636) collected from Chesapeake Bay from 2007-2010 in conjunction with State water quality monitoring programmes. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giebel, G.; Cline, J.; Frank, H.

Here, this paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Taskmore » is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.« less

Performance and robustness of probabilistic river forecasts computed with quantile regression based on multiple independent variables in the North Central USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoss, F.; Fischbeck, P. S.

2014-10-01

This study further develops the method of quantile regression (QR) to predict exceedance probabilities of flood stages by post-processing forecasts. Using data from the 82 river gages, for which the National Weather Service's North Central River Forecast Center issues forecasts daily, this is the first QR application to US American river gages. Archived forecasts for lead times up to six days from 2001-2013 were analyzed. Earlier implementations of QR used the forecast itself as the only independent variable (Weerts et al., 2011; López López et al., 2014). This study adds the rise rate of the river stage in the last 24 and 48 h and the forecast error 24 and 48 h ago to the QR model. Including those four variables significantly improved the forecasts, as measured by the Brier Skill Score (BSS). Mainly, the resolution increases, as the original QR implementation already delivered high reliability. Combining the forecast with the other four variables results in much less favorable BSSs. Lastly, the forecast performance does not depend on the size of the training dataset, but on the year, the river gage, lead time and event threshold that are being forecast. We find that each event threshold requires a separate model configuration or at least calibration.

THE AGWA – KINEROS2 SUITE OF MODELING TOOLS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A suite of modeling tools ranging from the event-based KINEROS2 flash-flood forecasting tool to the continuous (K2-O2) KINEROS-OPUS biogeochemistry tool. The KINEROS2 flash flood forecasting tool is being tested with the National Weather Service (NEW) is described. Tne NWS version assimilates Dig...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Center continuously monitors its NWP model performance against different performance measures, and AIRCFT GFS SSI and forecast fits to RAOBS for last 7 days spatial bias maps for different regions different regions GFS SSI and forecast fits to RAOBS for calendar months (time series, spatial and vertical

PREMAQ: A NEW PRE-PROCESSOR TO CMAQ FOR AIR-QUALITY FORECASTING

EPA Science Inventory

A new pre-processor to CMAQ (PREMAQ) has been developed as part of the national air-quality forecasting system. PREMAQ combines the functionality of MCIP and parts of SMOKE in a single real-time processor. PREMAQ was specifically designed to link NCEP's Eta model with CMAQ, and...

THE EMISSION PROCESSING SYSTEM FOR THE ETA/CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

NOAA and EPA have created an Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system. This AQF system links an adaptation of the EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality Model with the 12 kilometer ETA model running operationally at NOAA's National Center for Environmental Predication (NCEP). One of th...

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Reference List Table of Contents NCEP OPERATIONAL MODEL FORECAST GRAPHICS PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL MODEL Developmental Air Quality Forecasts and Verification Back to Table of Contents 2. PARALLEL/EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICS VERIFICATION (GRID VS.OBS) WEB PAGE (NCEP EXPERIMENTAL PAGE, INTERNAL USE ONLY) Interactive web page tool for

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Operational Forecast Graphics Experimental Forecast Graphics Verification and Diagnostics Model Configuration consists of the following components: - The NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) version of the Non updates for the 12 km parent domain and the 3 km CONUS/Alaska nests. The non-cycled nests (Hawaii, Puerto

FORECASTING AIR QUALITY OVER THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

Increased awareness of national air quality issues on the part of the media and the general public have recently led to more demand for short-term (1-2 day) air quality forecasts for use in assessing potential health impacts (e.g., on children, the elderly, and asthmatics) and po...

Science in 60 - The Forecast Calls for Flu

ScienceCinema

Del Valle, Sara

2018-05-21

What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus, or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara Del Valle and her team from Los Alamos National Laboratory have developed a global disease-forecasting system that will improve the way we respond to epidemics. Using this model, individuals and public health officials can monitor disease incidence and implement strategies — such as vaccination campaigns, communicating to the public and allocating resources — to stay one step ahead of infectious disease spread.

Norway and Cuba Continue Collaborating to Build Capacity to Improve Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antuña, Juan Carlos; Kalnay, Eugenia; Mesquita, Michel D. S.

2014-06-01

The Future of Climate Extremes in the Caribbean Extreme Cuban Climate (XCUBE) project, which is funded by the Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection as part of an assignment for the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to support scientific cooperation between Norway and Cuba, carried out a training workshop on seasonal forecasting, reanalysis data, and weather research and forecasting (WRF). The workshop was a follow-up to the XCUBE workshop conducted in Havana in 2013 and provided Cuban scientists with access to expertise on seasonal forecasting, the WRF model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the community, data assimilation, and reanalysis.

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dreher, Joseph G.; Crawford, Winifred; Lafosse, Richard; Hoeth, Brian; Burns, Kerry

2009-01-01

The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for space shuttle landings. As defined in the Flight Rules (FR), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings, and is required to issue surface average and 10-minute peak wind speed forecasts. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a PC-based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC; Lambert 2003). However, the shuttle occasionally may land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at KSC in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested a similar tool be developed for EAFB.

Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lavers, David A.; Waliser, Duane E.; Ralph, F. Martin; Dettinger, Michael

2016-01-01

The western United States is vulnerable to socioeconomic disruption due to extreme winter precipitation and floods. Traditionally, forecasts of precipitation and river discharge provide the basis for preparations. Herein we show that earlier event awareness may be possible through use of horizontal water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) forecasts. Applying the potential predictability concept to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global ensemble reforecasts, across 31 winters, IVT is found to be more predictable than precipitation. IVT ensemble forecasts with the smallest spreads (least forecast uncertainty) are associated with initiation states with anomalously high geopotential heights south of Alaska, a setup conducive for anticyclonic conditions and weak IVT into the western United States. IVT ensemble forecasts with the greatest spreads (most forecast uncertainty) have initiation states with anomalously low geopotential heights south of Alaska and correspond to atmospheric rivers. The greater IVT predictability could provide warnings of impending storminess with additional lead times for hydrometeorological applications.

NCAR's Experimental Real-time Convection-allowing Ensemble Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, C. S.; Romine, G. S.; Sobash, R.; Fossell, K.

2016-12-01

Since April 2015, the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Laboratory, in collaboration with NCAR's Computational Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), has been producing daily, real-time, 10-member, 48-hr ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing over the conterminous United States (http://ensemble.ucar.edu). These computationally-intensive, next-generation forecasts are produced on the Yellowstone supercomputer, have been embraced by both amateur and professional weather forecasters, are widely used by NCAR and university researchers, and receive considerable attention on social media. Initial conditions are supplied by NCAR's Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) software and the forecast model is NCAR's Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; both WRF and DART are community tools. This presentation will focus on cutting-edge research results leveraging the ensemble dataset, including winter weather predictability, severe weather forecasting, and power outage modeling. Additionally, the unique design of the real-time analysis and forecast system and computational challenges and solutions will be described.

The Implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for Global Dust Forecasting at NOAA NCEP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya;

Demonstrating the Operational Value of Thermodynamic Hyperspectral Profiles in the Pre-Convective Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kozlowski, Danielle; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2011-01-01

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO). As a part of the transition to operations process, SPoRT attempts to identify possible limitations in satellite observations and provide operational forecasters a product that will result in the most impact on their forecasts. One operational forecast challenge that some NWS offices face, is forecasting convection in data-void regions such as large bodies of water. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a sounding instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite that provides temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere. This paper will demonstrate an approach to assimilate AIRS profile data into a regional configuration of the WRF model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation component to be used as a proxy for the individual profiles.

Multilayer Stock Forecasting Model Using Fuzzy Time Series

PubMed Central

Javedani Sadaei, Hossein; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

2014-01-01

After reviewing the vast body of literature on using FTS in stock market forecasting, certain deficiencies are distinguished in the hybridization of findings. In addition, the lack of constructive systematic framework, which can be helpful to indicate direction of growth in entire FTS forecasting systems, is outstanding. In this study, we propose a multilayer model for stock market forecasting including five logical significant layers. Every single layer has its detailed concern to assist forecast development by reconciling certain problems exclusively. To verify the model, a set of huge data containing Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX), National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), and S&P 500 have been chosen as experimental datasets. The results indicate that the proposed methodology has the potential to be accepted as a framework for model development in stock market forecasts using FTS. PMID:24605058

Space Weather Services and Products of RWC Russia in 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burov, Viatcheslav; Avdyushin, Sergei; Denisova, Valentina

RWC Russia (Institute of Applied Geophysics) - forecasting center unites activity of the National Heliogeophysic Service of Russia and Regional Warning Center ISES. The Center has been operating since 1974. There are several services that carry out gathering, processing and spreading of the total information data flow, (including both Russian and foreign-exchange data), and forecasts. Forecasting activities results are issued in the form of special messages, the major part of which corresponds to standard codes. Our Web page: www.geospace.ru are represented the current data and the forecasts. At present both a weekly 7-day geomagnetic forecast and the actual disturbance activity information for the previous week are available on the Web page. And, the data of some ionosphere and magnetic stations are available on this page too. Various types of our forecast alert and routine observations are considered in the report

Global Impacts and Regional Actions: Preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizer, James L.; Foster, Josh; Lund, David

2000-09-01

It has been estimated that severe El Niño-related flooding and droughts in Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia resulted in more than 22 000 lives lost and in excess of $36 billion in damages during 1997-98. As one of the most severe events this century, the 1997-98 El Niño was unique not only in terms of physical magnitude, but also in terms of human response. This response was made possible by recent advances in climate-observing and forecasting systems, creation and dissemination of forecast information by institutions such as the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and individuals in climate-sensitive sectors willing to act on forecast information by incorporating it into their decision-making. The supporting link between the forecasts and their practical application was a product of efforts by several national and international organizations, and a primary focus of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Global Programs (NOAA/OGP).NOAA/OGP over the last decade has supported pilot projects in Latin America, the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, and Africa to improve transfer of forecast information to climate sensitive sectors, study linkages between climate and human health, and distribute climate information products in certain areas. Working with domestic and international partners, NOAA/OGP helped organize a total of 11 Climate Outlook Fora around the world during the 1997-98 El Niño. At each Outlook Forum, climatologists and meteorologists created regional, consensus-based, seasonal precipitation forecasts and representatives from climate-sensitive sectors discussed options for applying forecast information. Additional ongoing activities during 1997-98 included research programs focused on the social and economic impacts of climate change and the regional manifestations of global-scale climate variations and their effect on decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors in the United States.The overall intent of NOAA/OGP's activities was to make experimental forecast information broadly available to potential users, and to foster a learning process on how seasonal-to-interannual forecasts could be applied in sectors susceptible to climate variability. This process allowed users to explore the capabilities and limitations of climate forecasts currently available, and forecast producers to receive feedback on the utility of their products. Through activities in which NOAA/OGP and its partners were involved, it became clear that further application of forecast information will be aided by improved forecast accuracy and detail, creation of common validation techniques, continued training in forecast generation and application, alternate methods for presenting forecast information, and a systematic strategy for creation and dissemination of forecast products.The overall intent of NOAA/OGP's activities was to make experimental forecast information broadly available to potential users, and to foster a learning process on how seasonal-to-interannual forecasts could be applied in sectors susceptible to climate variability. This process allowed users to explore the capabilities and limitations of climate forecasts currently available, and forecast producers to receive feedback on the utility of their products. Through activities in which NOAA/OGP and its partners were involved, it became clear that further application of forecast information will be aided by improved forecast accuracy and detail, creation of common validation techniques, continued training in forecast generation and application, alternate methods for presenting forecast information, and a systematic strategy for creation and dissemination of forecast products.

Synoptic scale forecast skill and systematic errors in the MASS 2.0 model. [Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K. F.

1985-01-01

The synoptic scale performance characteristics of MASS 2.0 are determined by comparing filtered 12-24 hr model forecasts to same-case forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's synoptic-scale Limited-area Fine Mesh model. Characteristics of the two systems are contrasted, and the analysis methodology used to determine statistical skill scores and systematic errors is described. The overall relative performance of the two models in the sample is documented, and important systematic errors uncovered are presented.

Coastal and Riverine Flood Forecast Model powered by ADCIRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, A.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding is becoming a major threat to increased population in the coastal areas. To protect coastal communities from tropical storms & hurricane damages, early warning systems are being developed. These systems have the capability of real time flood forecasting to identify hazardous coastal areas and aid coastal communities in rescue operations. State of the art hydrodynamic models forced by atmospheric forcing have given modelers the ability to forecast storm surge, water levels and currents. This helps to identify the areas threatened by intense storms. Study on Chesapeake Bay area has gained national importance because of its combined riverine and coastal phenomenon, which leads to greater uncertainty in flood predictions. This study presents an automated flood forecast system developed by following Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Surge Guidance System (ASGS) guidelines and tailored to take in riverine and coastal boundary forcing, thus includes all the hydrodynamic processes to forecast total water in the Potomac River. As studies on tidal and riverine flow interaction are very scarce in number, our forecast system would be a scientific tool to examine such area and fill the gaps with precise prediction for Potomac River. Real-time observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and field measurements have been used as model boundary feeding. The model performance has been validated by using major historical riverine and coastal flooding events. Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC produced promising predictions for flood inundation areas. As better forecasts can be achieved by using coupled models, this system is developed to take boundary conditions from Global WaveWatchIII for the research purposes. Wave and swell propagation will be fed through Global WavewatchIII model to take into account the effects of swells and currents. This automated forecast system is currently undergoing rigorous testing to include any missing parameters which might provide better and more reliable forecast for the flood affected communities.

Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Results of a National Academies Workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friday, E.; Barron, E. J.; Elfring, C.; Geller, L.

2002-12-01

When a major East Coast snowstorm was forecast during the winter of 2001, people began preparing - both the public and the decision-makers responsible for public services. There was an air of urgency, heightened because just the previous year the region had been hit hard by a storm of unpredicted strength. But this time, the storm never materialized and people were left wondering what went "wrong" with the forecast. Did something go wrong or did forecasters just fail to communicate their information in an effective way? Did they convey a sense of the likelihood of the event and keep people up to date as information changed? In the summer of 2001, the National Academies' Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate hosted a workshop designed to explore the communication of uncertainty in weather and climate information. Workshop participants examined five case studies that were chosen to illustrate a range of forecast timescales and certainty levels. The cases were: Red River Flood, Grand Forks, April 1997; East Coast Winter Storm, March 2001; Oklahoma-Kansas Tornado Outbreak, May 3, 1999; El Nino 1997-1998, and Climate Change Science, a report issued in 2001. In each of these cases, participants examined who said what, when, to whom, how, and with what effect. The last two cases specifically address climate-related topics. This paper summarizes the final workshop report (Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Summary of a Workshop, NRC 2002), including an overview of the five cases and lessons learned about communicating uncertainties in weather and climate forecasts. Among other findings, the report stresses that communication and appropriate dissemination of information, including information about uncertainty in the forecasts and the forecaster's confidence in the product, should be an integral, ongoing part of the forecasting process, not an afterthought. Explaining uncertainty should be an integral part of what weather and climate forecasters do and is essential to delivering accurate and useful information.

Evaluations of Extended-Range tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific by using the Ensemble Reforecasts: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Chen, Pang-Cheng; Elsberry, Russell L.

2017-04-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictability of the extended-range forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) in the western North Pacific using reforecasts from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) during 1996-2015, and from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) during 1999-2010. Tsai and Elsberry have demonstrated that an opportunity exists to support hydrological operations by using the extended-range TC formation and track forecasts in the western North Pacific from the ECMWF 32-day ensemble. To demonstrate this potential for the decision-making processes regarding water resource management and hydrological operation in Taiwan reservoir watershed areas, special attention is given to the skill of the NCEP GEFS and CFS models in predicting the TCs affecting the Taiwan area. The first objective of this study is to analyze the skill of NCEP GEFS and CFS TC forecasts and quantify the forecast uncertainties via verifications of categorical binary forecasts and probabilistic forecasts. The second objective is to investigate the relationships among the large-scale environmental factors [e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), etc.] and the model forecast errors by using the reforecasts. Preliminary results are indicating that the skill of the TC activity forecasts based on the raw forecasts can be further improved if the model biases are minimized by utilizing these reforecasts.

Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues

DOE PAGES

Giebel, G.; Cline, J.; Frank, H.; ...

2016-10-03

Here, this paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Taskmore » is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.« less

"Getting Practical" and the National Network of Science Learning Centres

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapman, Georgina; Langley, Mark; Skilling, Gus; Walker, John

2011-01-01

The national network of Science Learning Centres is a co-ordinating partner in the Getting Practical--Improving Practical Work in Science programme. The principle of training provision for the "Getting Practical" programme is a cascade model. Regional trainers employed by the national network of Science Learning Centres trained the cohort of local…

A pilot quality assurance scheme for diabetic retinopathy risk reduction programmes.

PubMed

Garvican, L; Scanlon, P H

2004-10-01

We describe a pilot study of measurement of quality assurance targets for diabetic retinopathy screening and performance comparison between 10 existing services, in preparation for the roll-out of the national programme. In 1999 the UK National Screening Committee approved proposals for a national diabetic retinopathy risk reduction programme, including recommendations for quality assurance, but implementation was held pending publication of the National Service Framework for Diabetes. Existing services requested the authors to perform a pilot study of a QA scheme, indicating willingness to contribute data for comparison. Objectives and quality standards were developed, following consultation with diabetologists, ophthalmologists and retinal screeners. Services submitted 2001/2 performance data, in response to a questionnaire, for anonymization, central analysis and comparison. The 17 quality standards encompass all aspects of the programme from identification of patients to timeliness of treatment. Ten programmes took part, submitting all the data available. All returns were incomplete, but especially so from the optometry-based schemes. Eight or more services demonstrated they could reach the minimum level in only five of the 17 standards. Thirty per cent could not provide coverage data. All were running behind. Reasons for difficulties in obtaining data and/or failing to achieve standards included severe under-funding and little previous experience of QA. Information systems were limited and incompatible between diabetes and eye units, and there was a lack of co-ordinated management of the whole programme. Quality assurance is time-consuming, expensive and inadequately resourced. The pilot study identified priorities for local action. National programme implementation must involve integral quality assurance mechanisms from the outset.

Models for short term malaria prediction in Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

Briët, Olivier JT; Vounatsou, Penelope; Gunawardena, Dissanayake M; Galappaththy, Gawrie NL; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H

2008-01-01

Background Malaria in Sri Lanka is unstable and fluctuates in intensity both spatially and temporally. Although the case counts are dwindling at present, given the past history of resurgence of outbreaks despite effective control measures, the control programmes have to stay prepared. The availability of long time series of monitored/diagnosed malaria cases allows for the study of forecasting models, with an aim to developing a forecasting system which could assist in the efficient allocation of resources for malaria control. Methods Exponentially weighted moving average models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with seasonal components, and seasonal multiplicative autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were compared on monthly time series of district malaria cases for their ability to predict the number of malaria cases one to four months ahead. The addition of covariates such as the number of malaria cases in neighbouring districts or rainfall were assessed for their ability to improve prediction of selected (seasonal) ARIMA models. Results The best model for forecasting and the forecasting error varied strongly among the districts. The addition of rainfall as a covariate improved prediction of selected (seasonal) ARIMA models modestly in some districts but worsened prediction in other districts. Improvement by adding rainfall was more frequent at larger forecasting horizons. Conclusion Heterogeneity of patterns of malaria in Sri Lanka requires regionally specific prediction models. Prediction error was large at a minimum of 22% (for one of the districts) for one month ahead predictions. The modest improvement made in short term prediction by adding rainfall as a covariate to these prediction models may not be sufficient to merit investing in a forecasting system for which rainfall data are routinely processed. PMID:18460204

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report - Fourth Quarter FY-10

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

2010-01-01

Three AMU tasks were completed in this Quarter, each resulting in a forecast tool now being used in operations and a final report documenting how the work was done. AMU personnel completed the following tasks (1) Phase II of the Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting task by delivering an improved wind forecasting tool to operations and providing training on its use; (2) a graphical user interface (GUI) she updated with new scripts to complete the ADAS Update and Maintainability task, and delivered the scripts to the Spaceflight Meteorology Group on Johnson Space Center, Texas and National Weather Service in Melbourne, Fla.; and (3) the Verify MesoNAM Performance task after we created and delivered a GUI that forecasters will use to determine the performance of the operational MesoNAM weather model forecast.

The United Nations programme on space applications: priority thematic areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haubold, H.

The Third United Nations Conference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE III) was held in 1999 with efforts to identify world wide benefits of developing space science and technology, particularly in the developing nations. One of the main vehicles to implement recommendations of UNISPACE III is the United Nations Programme on Space Applications of the Office for Outer Space Affairs at UN Headquarters in Vienna. Following a process of prioritization by Member States, the Programme focus its activities on (i) knowledge-based themes as space law and basic space science, (ii) application-based themes as disaster management, natural resources management, environmental monitoring, tele-health, and (iii) enabling technologies such as remote sensing satellites, communications satellites, global navigation satellite systems, and small satellites. Current activities of the Programme will be reviewed. Further information available at http://www.oosa.unvienna.org/sapidx.html

NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2005-01-01

Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a national scope.

The value of theory in programmes to implement clinical guidelines: Insights from a retrospective mixed-methods evaluation of a programme to increase adherence to national guidelines for chronic disease in primary care

PubMed Central

Sheringham, Jessica; Solmi, Francesca; Ariti, Cono; Baim-Lance, Abigail; Morris, Steve; Fulop, Naomi J.

2017-01-01

Background Programmes have had limited success in improving guideline adherence for chronic disease. Use of theory is recommended but is often absent in programmes conducted in ‘real-world’ rather than research settings. Materials and methods This mixed-methods study tested a retrospective theory-based approach to evaluate a ‘real-world’ programme in primary care to improve adherence to national guidelines for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Qualitative data, comprising analysis of documents generated throughout the programme (n>300), in-depth interviews with planners (clinicians, managers and improvement experts involved in devising, planning, and implementing the programme, n = 14) and providers (practice clinicians, n = 14) were used to construct programme theories, experiences of implementation and contextual factors influencing care. Quantitative analyses comprised controlled before-and-after analyses to test ‘early’ and evolved’ programme theories with comparators grounded in each theory. ‘Early’ theory predicted the programme would reduce emergency hospital admissions (EHA). It was tested using national analysis of standardized borough-level EHA rates between programme and comparator boroughs. ‘Evolved’ theory predicted practices with higher programme participation would increase guideline adherence and reduce EHA and costs. It was tested using a difference-in-differences analysis with linked primary and secondary care data to compare changes in diagnosis, management, EHA and costs, over time and by programme participation. Results Contrary to programme planners’ predictions in ‘early’ and ‘evolved’ programme theories, admissions did not change following the programme. However, consistent with ‘evolved’ theory, higher guideline adoption occurred in practices with greater programme participation. Conclusions Retrospectively constructing theories based on the ideas of programme planners can enable evaluators to address some limitations encountered when evaluating programmes without a theoretical base. Prospectively articulating theory aided by existing models and mid-range implementation theories may strengthen guideline adoption efforts by prompting planners to scrutinise implementation methods. Benefits of deriving programme theory, with or without the aid of mid-range implementation theories, however, may be limited when the evidence underpinning guidelines is flawed. PMID:28328942

A prospective approach to coastal geography from satellite. [technological forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munday, J. C., Jr.

1981-01-01

A forecasting protocol termed the "prospective approach' was used to examine probable futures relative to coastal applications of satellite data. Significant variables include the energy situation, the national economy, national Earth satellite programs, and coastal zone research, commercial activity, and regulatory activity. Alternative scenarios for the period until 1986 are presented. Possible response by state/local remote sensing centers include operational applications for users, input to geo-base information systems (GIS), development of decision-making algorithms using GIS data, and long term research programs for coastal management using merged satellite and traditional data.

Progress in preliminary studies at Ottana Solar Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demontis, V.; Camerada, M.; Cau, G.; Cocco, D.; Damiano, A.; Melis, T.; Musio, M.

2016-05-01

The fast increasing share of distributed generation from non-programmable renewable energy sources, such as the strong penetration of photovoltaic technology in the distribution networks, has generated several problems for the management and security of the whole power grid. In order to meet the challenge of a significant share of solar energy in the electricity mix, several actions aimed at increasing the grid flexibility and its hosting capacity, as well as at improving the generation programmability, need to be investigated. This paper focuses on the ongoing preliminary studies at the Ottana Solar Facility, a new experimental power plant located in Sardinia (Italy) currently under construction, which will offer the possibility to progress in the study of solar plants integration in the power grid. The facility integrates a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant, including a thermal energy storage system and an organic Rankine cycle (ORC) unit, with a concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) plant and an electrical energy storage system. The facility has the main goal to assess in real operating conditions the small scale concentrating solar power technology and to study the integration of the two technologies and the storage systems to produce programmable and controllable power profiles. A model for the CSP plant yield was developed to assess different operational strategies that significantly influence the plant yearly yield and its global economic effectiveness. In particular, precise assumptions for the ORC module start-up operation behavior, based on discussions with the manufacturers and technical datasheets, will be described. Finally, the results of the analysis of the: "solar driven", "weather forecasts" and "combined storage state of charge (SOC)/ weather forecasts" operational strategies will be presented.

Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regonda, Satish Kumar; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill; Brown, James D.; Demargne, Julie

2013-08-01

We present a statistical procedure for generating short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, streamflow forecasts produced operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The resulting ensemble streamflow forecast provides an estimate of the predictive uncertainty associated with the single-valued forecast to support risk-based decision making by the forecasters and by the users of the forecast products, such as emergency managers. Forced by single-valued quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF), the single-valued streamflow forecasts are produced at a 6-h time step nominally out to 5 days into the future. The single-valued streamflow forecasts reflect various run-time modifications, or "manual data assimilation", applied by the human forecasters in an attempt to reduce error from various sources in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates ensemble traces of streamflow from a parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecast, QPF, and the most recent streamflow observation. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a multiyear archive of the single-valued river stage forecast produced operationally by the NWS Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma. As a by-product of parameter estimation, the procedure provides a categorical assessment of the effective lead time of the operational hydrologic forecasts for different QPF and forecast flow conditions. To evaluate the procedure, we carried out hindcasting experiments in dependent and cross-validation modes. The results indicate that the short-term streamflow ensemble hindcasts generated from the procedure are generally reliable within the effective lead time of the single-valued forecasts and well capture the skill of the single-valued forecasts. For smaller basins, however, the effective lead time is significantly reduced by short basin memory and reduced skill in the single-valued QPF.

Can we use Earth Observations to improve monthly water level forecasts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, L. J.; Villarini, G.

2017-12-01

Dynamical-statistical hydrologic forecasting approaches benefit from different strengths in comparison with traditional hydrologic forecasting systems: they are computationally efficient, can integrate and `learn' from a broad selection of input data (e.g., General Circulation Model (GCM) forecasts, Earth Observation time series, teleconnection patterns), and can take advantage of recent progress in machine learning (e.g. multi-model blending, post-processing and ensembling techniques). Recent efforts to develop a dynamical-statistical ensemble approach for forecasting seasonal streamflow using both GCM forecasts and changing land cover have shown promising results over the U.S. Midwest. Here, we use climate forecasts from several GCMs of the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) alongside 15-minute stage time series from the National River Flow Archive (NRFA) and land cover classes extracted from the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative 300 m annual Global Land Cover time series. With these data, we conduct systematic long-range probabilistic forecasting of monthly water levels in UK catchments over timescales ranging from one to twelve months ahead. We evaluate the improvement in model fit and model forecasting skill that comes from using land cover classes as predictors in the models. This work opens up new possibilities for combining Earth Observation time series with GCM forecasts to predict a variety of hazards from space using data science techniques.

Forecasting for natural avalanches during spring opening of Going-to-the-Sun Road, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reardon, Blase; Lundy, Chris

2004-01-01

The annual spring opening of the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park presents a unique avalanche forecasting challenge. The highway traverses dozens of avalanche paths mid-track in a 23-kilometer section that crosses the Continental Divide. Workers removing seasonal snow and avalanche debris are exposed to paths that can produce avalanches of destructive class 4. The starting zones for most slide paths are within proposed Wilderness, and explosive testing or control are not currently used. Spring weather along the Divide is highly variable; rain-on-snow events are common, storms can bring several feet of new snow as late as June, and temperature swings can be dramatic. Natural avalanches - dry and wet slab, dry and wet loose, and glide avalanches - present a wide range of hazards and forecasting issues. This paper summarizes the forecasting program instituted in 2002 for the annual snow removal operations. It focuses on tools and techniques for forecasting natural wet snow avalanches by incorporating two case studies, including a widespread climax wet slab cycle in 2003. We examine weather and snowpack conditions conducive to wet snow avalanches, indicators for instability, and suggest a conceptual model for wet snow stability in a northern intermountain snow climate.

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sengupta, Manajit; Habte, Aron; Lopez, Anthony

This presentation provides a high-level overview of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), including sensing, measurement and forecasting, and discusses observations that are needed for research and product development.

Climate Prediction Sees Future Despite Chaos: Researchers Outside NASA use NCCS Resources for Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

The air on this mostly sunny January day is crisp and the wind is blustery. The morning's National Weather Service 6-hour forecast had accurately predicted these conditions for the Baltimore-Washington area and the 2-3 day extended outlook was almost perfect. The previous week, the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlook for the general trends for the' region was correct as well. However, no forecast could have predicted specific details about this day. It is 28.5 F in the sunshine bright enough for dark sunglasses, and windy enough to blow off a hat. Such details are impossible to foresee with any accuracy and are outside the scope of routine weather prediction. Equally difficult is accurately forecasting weather beyond about 2 weeks.

Applications of NASA and NOAA Satellite Observations by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Response to Natural Disasters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Burks, Jason E.; McGrath, Kevin M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2012-01-01

NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center supports the transition of unique NASA and NOAA research activities to the operational weather forecasting community. SPoRT emphasizes real-time analysis and prediction out to 48 hours. SPoRT partners with NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and National Centers to improve current products, demonstrate future satellite capabilities and explore new data assimilation techniques. Recently, the SPoRT Center has been involved in several activities related to disaster response, in collaboration with NOAA s National Weather Service, NASA s Applied Sciences Disasters Program, and other partners.

3 CFR 8830 - Proclamation 8830 of May 25, 2012. National Hurricane Preparedness Week, 2012

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... damage from storm surges, flooding, high winds, and tornadoes. During National Hurricane Preparedness... prepare before storms strike. With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center, we continue to advance accurate tropical storm forecasting that gives individuals more...

Sentinel-3a: commissioning phase results of its optical payload

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieke, J.; Mavrocordatos, C.

2017-09-01

The Sentinel-3 (S3) is a Global Land and Ocean Mission [1] currently in development as part of the European Commission's Copernicus programme (former: Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) [2]). The multi-instrument Sentinel-3 mission measures sea-surface topography, sea- and land-surface temperature, ocean colour and land colour to support ocean forecasting systems, as well as environmental and climate monitoring with near-real time data.

Implementation of Real-Time Bias-Adjusted O3 and PM2.5 Air Quality Forecasts and their Performance Evaluations during 2008 over the Continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is operationally implementing an Air Quality Forecast (AQF) system. This program, which couples NOAA's North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather p...

Real-Time Bias-Adjusted O3 and PM2.5 Air Quality Index Forecasts and their Performance Evaluations over the Continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

The National Air Quality Forecast Capacity (NAQFC) system, which links NOAA's North American Mesoscale (NAM) meteorological model with EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, provided operational ozone (O₃) and experimental fine particular matter (PM_2...

Forecasting trends in outdoor recreation activities on multi-state basis

Treesearch

Vincent A. Scardino; Josef Schwalbe; Marianne Beauregard

1980-01-01

Since a substantial amount of recreation planning takes place on a statewide basis, it is essential to have reliable information and forecasts of recreational needs on a state level. However, most of the recreation research over the last few years have used either national survey data, statewide data or site specific information.

On Constructing Ageing Rural Populations: "Capturing" the Grey Nomad

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davies, Amanda

2011-01-01

The world's population is ageing, with forecasts predicting this ageing is likely to be particularly severe in the rural areas of more developed countries. These forecasts are developed from nationally aggregated census and survey data and assume spatial homogeneity in ageing. They also draw on narrow understandings of older people and construct…

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-01-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

PubMed

Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

2016-11-22

Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

The Importance of Hurricane Research to Life, Property, the Economy, and National Security.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busalacchi, A. J.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has brought into stark relief how much hurricane forecasts have improved - and how important it is to make them even better. Whereas the error in 48-hour track forecasts has been reduced by more than half, according to the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasts remain challenging, especially with storms such as Harvey that strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in less than three days. The unusually active season, with Hurricane Irma sustaining 185-mph winds for a record 36 hours and two Atlantic hurricanes reaching 150-mph winds simultaneously for the first time, also highlighted what we do, and do not, know about how tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms. The extraordinary toll of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria - which may ultimately be responsible for hundreds of deaths and an estimated $200 billion or more in damages - underscores why investments into improved forecasting must be a national priority. At NCAR and UCAR, scientists are working with their colleagues at federal agencies, the private sector, and the university community to advance our understanding of these deadly storms. Among their many projects, NCAR researchers are making experimental tropical cyclone forecasts using an innovative Earth system model that allows for variable resolution. We are working with NOAA to issue flooding, inundation, and streamflow forecasts for areas hit by hurricanes, and we have used extremely high-resolution regional models to simulate successfully the rapid hurricane intensification that has proved so difficult to predict. We are assessing ways to better predict the damage potential of tropical cyclones by looking beyond wind speed to consider such important factors as the size and forward motion of the storm. On the important question of climate change, scientists have experimented with running coupled climate models at a high enough resolution to spin up a hurricane, and we have used a convection-permitting regional model to examine how named storms of the past might look if they were to formed in a warmer, wetter future. Finally, research is also being performed to better communicate forecasts to help residents make informed choices when a damaging storm approaches.

Results from the second year of a collaborative effort to forecast influenza seasons in the United States.

PubMed

Biggerstaff, Matthew; Johansson, Michael; Alper, David; Brooks, Logan C; Chakraborty, Prithwish; Farrow, David C; Hyun, Sangwon; Kandula, Sasikiran; McGowan, Craig; Ramakrishnan, Naren; Rosenfeld, Roni; Shaman, Jeffrey; Tibshirani, Rob; Tibshirani, Ryan J; Vespignani, Alessandro; Yang, Wan; Zhang, Qian; Reed, Carrie

2018-02-24

Accurate forecasts could enable more informed public health decisions. Since 2013, CDC has worked with external researchers to improve influenza forecasts by coordinating seasonal challenges for the United States and the 10 Health and Human Service Regions. Forecasted targets for the 2014-15 challenge were the onset week, peak week, and peak intensity of the season and the weekly percent of outpatient visits due to influenza-like illness (ILI) 1-4 weeks in advance. We used a logarithmic scoring rule to score the weekly forecasts, averaged the scores over an evaluation period, and then exponentiated the resulting logarithmic score. Poor forecasts had a score near 0, and perfect forecasts a score of 1. Five teams submitted forecasts from seven different models. At the national level, the team scores for onset week ranged from <0.01 to 0.41, peak week ranged from 0.08 to 0.49, and peak intensity ranged from <0.01 to 0.17. The scores for predictions of ILI 1-4 weeks in advance ranged from 0.02-0.38 and was highest 1 week ahead. Forecast skill varied by HHS region. Forecasts can predict epidemic characteristics that inform public health actions. CDC, state and local health officials, and researchers are working together to improve forecasts. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Individual-level outcomes from a national clinical leadership development programme.

PubMed

Patton, Declan; Fealy, Gerard; McNamara, Martin; Casey, Mary; Connor, Tom O; Doyle, Louise; Quinlan, Christina

2013-08-01

A national clinical leadership development programme was instituted for Irish nurses and midwives in 2010. Incorporating a development framework and leadership pathway and a range of bespoke interventions for leadership development, including workshops, action-learning sets, mentoring and coaching, the programme was introduced at seven pilot sites in the second half of 2011. The programme pilot was evaluated with reference to structure, process and outcomes elements, including individual-level programme outcomes. Evaluation data were generated through focus groups and group interviews, individual interviews and written submissions. The data provided evidence of nurses' and midwives' clinical leadership development through self and observer-reported behaviours and dispositions including accounts of how the programme participants developed and displayed particular clinical leadership competencies. A key strength of the new programme was that it involved interventions that focussed on specific leadership competencies to be developed within the practice context.

The European Drought Observatory (EDO): Current State and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, J.; Singleton, A.; Sepulcre, G.; Micale, F.; Barbosa, P.

2012-12-01

Europe has repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage and climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement and integrate national activities with a European view. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is a portal, including a map server, a metadata catalogue, a media-monitor and analysis tools. The map server presents Europe-wide up-to-date information on the occurrence and severity of droughts, which is complemented by more detailed information provided by regional, national and local observatories through OGC compliant web mapping and web coverage services. In addition, time series of historical maps as well as graphs of the temporal evolution of drought indices for individual grid cells and administrative regions in Europe can be retrieved and analysed. Current work is focusing on validating the available products, improving the functionalities, extending the linkage to additional national and regional drought information systems and improving medium to long-range probabilistic drought forecasting products. Probabilistic forecasts are attractive in that they provide an estimate of the range of uncertainty in a particular forecast. Longer-term goals include the development of long-range drought forecasting products, the analysis of drought hazard and risk, the monitoring of drought impact and the integration of EDO in a global drought information system. The talk will provide an overview on the development and state of EDO, the different products, and the ways to include a wide range of stakeholders (i.e. European, national river basin, and local authorities) in the development of the system as well as an outlook on the future developments.

Construction of Real-time Forecast System on the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Wheeler, M. C.; Lee, J.; Gottschalck, J.

2013-12-01

Hae-Jeong Kim1, Matthew C. Wheeler2, June-Yi Lee3 and Jon C. Gottschalck4 1APEC Climate Center, 12 Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu, Busan, 612-020, South Korea 2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 3Global Monsoon Climate Laboratory, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea 4Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/National Weather Service, Washington D. C., USA *E-mail : shout@apcc21.org The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is one of the dominant mode of variability in the Asian summer monsoon and global monsoon (e.g. Webster et al., 1998; Lee et al., 2013). The BSISO influences summer monsoon onsets (e.g. Wang and Xie, 1997) and interacts with a wide range of atmospheric circulation and associated weather (e.g. Lee et al., 2011; Wang et al., 2012). In addition, the wet and dry spells of the BSISO strongly can influence extreme hydro-meteorological events, major driving forces of natural disasters (Lau and Waliser 2005). Thus, it is important to monitor and predict the BSISO. As the occurrence of and concern over extreme climate events rises, moreover, the provision of high-quality BSISO forecasts will become increasingly relevant. APCC has recently begun to provide the BSISO forecast information service at http://www.apcc21.org/eng/service/bsiso/fore/japcc030601.jsp. The forecast is contributed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and UK Meteorology Office in cooperation with the CAS/WCRP Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Task Force. The APCC BSISO forecasts are displayed by newly developed indices proposed by Lee at al. (2013) that are able to overcome the limitation of the RMM index (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) in terms of representing BSISO activity with northward propagation over off-equatorial monsoon domain. The BSISO forecast information can be useful for coping with extreme climate events and can help mitigate the agricultural and socioeconomic impacts of these natural disasters. This activity is expected to improve our understanding on the model shortcomings and forecast ability of the BSISO by inducing the participation of various model into BSISO metric. Acknowledgement. We would like to gratefully and sincerely thank the forecast contributions to this activity that has been facilitated by a number of individuals including Andrew Marshall, Wanqiu Wang, Ann Shelly and Frederic Vitart. We also thank the member of the MJO Task Force for their cooperation.

Studying policy implementation using a macro, meso and micro frame analysis: the case of the Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research & Care (CLAHRC) programme nationally and in North West London.

PubMed

Caldwell, Sarah E M; Mays, Nicholas

2012-10-15

The publication of Best research for best health in 2006 and the "ring-fencing" of health research funding in England marked the start of a period of change for health research governance and the structure of research funding in England. One response to bridging the 'second translational gap' between research knowledge and clinical practice was the establishment of nine Collaborations for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRCs). The goal of this paper is to assess how national-level understanding of the aims and objectives of the CLAHRCs translated into local implementation and practice in North West London. This study uses a variation of Goffman's frame analysis to trace the development of the initial national CLAHRC policy to its implementation at three levels. Data collection and analysis were qualitative through interviews, document analysis and embedded research. Analysis at the macro (national policy), meso (national programme) and micro (North West London) levels shows a significant common understanding of the aims and objectives of the policy and programme. Local level implementation in North West London was also consistent with these. The macro-meso-micro frame analysis is a useful way of studying the transition of a policy from high-level idea to programme in action. It could be used to identify differences at a local (micro) level in the implementation of multi-site programmes that would help understand differences in programme effectiveness.

Next Day Price Forecasting in Deregulated Market by Combination of Artificial Neural Network and ARIMA Time Series Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Areekul, Phatchakorn; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Urasaki, Naomitsu; Yona, Atsushi

Electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to power producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets, when planning bidding strategies in order to maximize their benefits and utilities, respectively. This paper proposed a method to predict hourly electricity prices for next-day electricity markets by combination methodology of ARIMA and ANN models. The proposed method is examined on the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), New South Wales regional in year 2006. Comparison of forecasting performance with the proposed ARIMA, ANN and combination (ARIMA-ANN) models are presented. Empirical results indicate that an ARIMA-ANN model can improve the price forecasting accuracy.

From marginal to marginalised: The inclusion of men who have sex with men in global and national AIDS programmes and policy.

PubMed

McKay, Tara

2016-01-01

In the last decade, gay men and other men who have sex with men (msm) have come to the fore of global policy debates about AIDS prevention. In stark contrast to programmes and policy during the first two decades of the epidemic, which largely excluded msm outside of the Western countries, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS now identifies gay men and other msm as 'marginalized but not marginal' to the global response. Drawing on archival data and five waves of United Nations Country Progress Reports on HIV/AIDS (2001-2012), this paper examines the productive power of international organisations in the development and diffusion of the msm category, and considers how international organisations have shaped the interpretation of msm in national policies and programmes. These data show that the increasing separation of sexual identity and sexual behaviour at the global level helped to construct notions of risk and disease that were sufficiently broad to accommodate the diverse interests of global policy-makers, activists, and governments. However, as various international and national actors have attempted to develop prevention programmes for msm, the failure of the msm category to map onto lived experience is increasingly apparent.

Implementation of a web-based national child health-care programme in a local context: A complex facilitator role.

PubMed

Tell, Johanna; Olander, Ewy; Anderberg, Peter; Berglund, Johan Sanmartin

2018-02-01

The aim of this study was to investigate child health-care coordinators' experiences of being a facilitator for the implementation of a new national child health-care programme in the form of a web-based national guide. The study was based on eight remote, online focus groups, using Skype for Business. A qualitative content analysis was performed. The analysis generated three categories: adapt to a local context, transition challenges and led by strong incentives. There were eight subcategories. In the latent analysis, the theme 'Being a facilitator: a complex role' was formed to express the child health-care coordinators' experiences. Facilitating a national guideline or decision support in a local context is a complex task that requires an advocating and mediating role. For successful implementation, guidelines and decision support, such as a web-based guide and the new child health-care programme, must match professional consensus and needs and be seen as relevant by all. Participation in the development and a strong bottom-up approach was important, making the web-based guide and the programme relevant to whom it is intended to serve, and for successful implementation. The study contributes valuable knowledge when planning to implement a national web-based decision support and policy programme in a local health-care context.

Time series analysis and mortality model of dog bite victims presented for treatment at a referral clinic for rabies exposure in Monrovia, Liberia, 2010-2013.

PubMed

Olarinmoye, Ayodeji O; Ojo, Johnson F; Fasunla, Ayotunde J; Ishola, Olayinka O; Dakinah, Fahnboah G; Mulbah, Charles K; Al-Hezaimi, Khalid; Olugasa, Babasola O

2017-08-01

We developed time trend model, determined treatment outcome and estimated annual human deaths among dog bite victims (DBVs) from 2010 to 2013 in Monrovia, Liberia. Data obtained from clinic records included victim's age, gender and site of bite marks, site name of residence of rabies-exposed patients, promptness of care sought, initial treatment and post-exposure-prophylaxis (PEP) compliance. We computed DBV time-trend plot, seasonal index and year 2014 case forecast. Associated annual human death (AHD) was estimated using a standardized decision tree model. Of the 775 DBVs enlisted, care seeking time was within 24h of injury in 328 (42.32%) DBVs. Victim's residential location, site of bite mark, and time dependent variables were significantly associated with treatment outcome (p< 0.05). The equation X^ t =28.278-0.365t models the trend of DBVs. The high (n=705, 90.97%) defaulted PEP and average 155 AHD from rabies implied urgent need for policy formulation on national programme for rabies prevention in Liberia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating national community-based health worker programmes into health systems: a systematic review identifying lessons learned from low-and middle-income countries.

PubMed

Zulu, Joseph Mumba; Kinsman, John; Michelo, Charles; Hurtig, Anna-Karin

2014-09-22

Despite the development of national community-based health worker (CBHW) programmes in several low- and middle-income countries, their integration into health systems has not been optimal. Studies have been conducted to investigate the factors influencing the integration processes, but systematic reviews to provide a more comprehensive understanding are lacking. We conducted a systematic review of published research to understand factors that may influence the integration of national CBHW programmes into health systems in low- and middle-income countries. To be included in the study, CBHW programmes should have been developed by the government and have standardised training, supervision and incentive structures. A conceptual framework on the integration of health innovations into health systems guided the review. We identified 3410 records, of which 36 were finally selected, and on which an analysis was conducted concerning the themes and pathways associated with different factors that may influence the integration process. Four programmes from Brazil, Ethiopia, India and Pakistan met the inclusion criteria. Different aspects of each of these programmes were integrated in different ways into their respective health systems. Factors that facilitated the integration process included the magnitude of countries' human resources for health problems and the associated discourses about how to address these problems; the perceived relative advantage of national CBHWs with regard to delivering health services over training and retaining highly skilled health workers; and the participation of some politicians and community members in programme processes, with the result that they viewed the programmes as legitimate, credible and relevant. Finally, integration of programmes within the existing health systems enhanced programme compatibility with the health systems' governance, financing and training functions. Factors that inhibited the integration process included a rapid scale-up process; resistance from other health workers; discrimination of CBHWs based on social, gender and economic status; ineffective incentive structures; inadequate infrastructure and supplies; and hierarchical and parallel communication structures. CBHW programmes should design their scale-up strategy differently based on current contextual factors. Further, adoption of a stepwise approach to the scale-up and integration process may positively shape the integration process of CBHW programmes into health systems.

Integrating Satellite Measurements from Polar-orbiting instruments into Smoke Disperson Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N.; Pierce, R. B.; Barnet, C.; Gambacorta, A.; Davies, J. E.; Strabala, K.

2015-12-01

The IDEA-I (Infusion of Satellite Data into Environmental Applications-International) is a real-time system that currently generates trajectory-based forecasts of aerosol dispersion and stratospheric intrusions. Here we demonstrate new capabilities that use satellite measurements from the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Suomi-NPP (S-NPP) instruments (operational since 2012) in the generation of trajectory-based predictions of smoke dispersion from North American wildfires. Two such data products are used, namely the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and the combined Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) NOAA-Unique CrIS-ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) carbon monoxide (CO) retrievals. The latter is a new data product made possible by the release of full spectral-resolution CrIS measurements since December 2014. Once NUCAPS CO becomes operationally available it will be used in real-time applications such as IDEA-I along with VIIRS AOD and meteorological forecast fields to support National Weather Service (NWS) Incident Meteorologist (IMET) and air quality management decision making. By combining different measurements, the information content of the IDEA-I transport and dispersion forecast is improved within the complex terrain features that dominate the Western US and Alaska. The primary user community of smoke forecasts is the Western regions of the National Weather Service (NWS) and US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) due to the significant impacts of wildfires in these regions. With this we demonstrate the quality of the smoke dispersion forecasts that can be achieved by integrating polar-orbiting satellite measurements with forecast models to enable on-site decision support services for fire incident management teams and other real-time air quality agencies.

Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. The NEMS Transportation Model comprises a series of semi-independent models which address different aspects of the transportation sector. The primary purpose of this model is to provide mid-term forecasts of transportation energy demand by fuel type including, but not limited to, motor gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and alternative fuels (such as CNG) not commonly associated with transportation. Themore » current NEMS forecast horizon extends to the year 2010 and uses 1990 as the base year. Forecasts are generated through the separate consideration of energy consumption within the various modes of transport, including: private and fleet light-duty vehicles; aircraft; marine, rail, and truck freight; and various modes with minor overall impacts, such as mass transit and recreational boating. This approach is useful in assessing the impacts of policy initiatives, legislative mandates which affect individual modes of travel, and technological developments. The model also provides forecasts of selected intermediate values which are generated in order to determine energy consumption. These elements include estimates of passenger travel demand by automobile, air, or mass transit; estimates of the efficiency with which that demand is met; projections of vehicle stocks and the penetration of new technologies; and estimates of the demand for freight transport which are linked to forecasts of industrial output. Following the estimation of energy demand, TRAN produces forecasts of vehicular emissions of the following pollutants by source: oxides of sulfur, oxides of nitrogen, total carbon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds.« less

An Integrated Uncertainty Analysis and Ensemble-based Data Assimilation Framework for Operational Snow Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, M.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K.; Margulis, S. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

2009-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS), the agency responsible for short- and long-term streamflow predictions across the nation, primarily applies the SNOW17 model for operational forecasting of snow accumulation and melt. The SNOW17-forecasted snowmelt serves as an input to a rainfall-runoff model for streamflow forecasts in snow-dominated areas. The accuracy of streamflow predictions in these areas largely relies on the accuracy of snowmelt. However, no direct snowmelt measurements are available to validate the SNOW17 predictions. Instead, indirect measurements such as snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements or discharge are typically used to calibrate SNOW17 parameters. In addition, the forecast practice is inherently deterministic, lacking tools to systematically address forecasting uncertainties (e.g., uncertainties in parameters, forcing, SWE and discharge observations, etc.). The current research presents an Integrated Uncertainty analysis and Ensemble-based data Assimilation (IUEA) framework to improve predictions of snowmelt and discharge while simultaneously providing meaningful estimates of the associated uncertainty. The IUEA approach uses the recently developed DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) to simultaneously estimate uncertainties in model parameters, forcing, and observations. The robustness and usefulness of the IUEA-SNOW17 framework is evaluated for snow-dominated watersheds in the northern Sierra Mountains, using the coupled IUEA-SNOW17 and an operational soil moisture accounting model (SAC-SMA). Preliminary results are promising and indicate successful performance of the coupled IUEA-SNOW17 framework. Implementation of the SNOW17 with the IUEA is straightforward and requires no major modification to the SNOW17 model structure. The IUEA-SNOW17 framework is intended to be modular and transferable and should assist the NWS in advancing the current forecasting system and reinforcing current operational forecasting skill.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

; at the NOAA/ESRL Rapid Refresh Page [<--click here] See "Current and Forecast Graphics" ; at the NOAA/ESRL High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Page [<--click here] NOAA / National Weather

Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, John A.; James, Richard P.; Ross, Jeremy D.

2013-06-01

Seasonal probability forecasts produced with numerical dynamics on supercomputers offer great potential value in managing risk and opportunity created by seasonal variability. The skill and reliability of contemporary forecast systems can be increased by calibration methods that use the historical performance of the forecast system to improve the ongoing real-time forecasts. Two calibration methods are applied to seasonal surface temperature forecasts of the US National Weather Service, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, and to a World Climate Service multi-model ensemble created by combining those two forecasts with Bayesian methods. As expected, the multi-model is somewhat more skillful and more reliable than the original models taken alone. The potential value of the multimodel in decision making is illustrated with the profits achieved in simulated trading of a weather derivative. In addition to examining the seasonal models, the article demonstrates that calibrated probability forecasts of weekly average temperatures for leads of 2-4 weeks are also skillful and reliable. The conversion of ensemble forecasts into probability distributions of impact variables is illustrated with degree days derived from the temperature forecasts. Some issues related to loss of stationarity owing to long-term warming are considered. The main conclusion of the article is that properly calibrated probabilistic forecasts possess sufficient skill and reliability to contribute to effective decisions in government and business activities that are sensitive to intraseasonal and seasonal climate variability.

Transitioning a Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System to Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Green, D. S.; Eco Forecasters

2011-12-01

Ecological prediction of the impacts of physical, chemical, biological, and human-induced change on ecosystems and their components, encompass a wide range of space and time scales, and subject matter. They vary from predicting the occurrence and/or transport of certain species, such harmful algal blooms, or biogeochemical constituents, such as dissolved oxygen concentrations, to large-scale ecosystem responses and higher trophic levels. The timescales of ecological prediction, including guidance and forecasts, range from nowcasts and short-term forecasts (days), to intraseasonal and interannual outlooks (weeks to months), to decadal and century projections in climate change scenarios. The spatial scales range from small coastal inlets to basin and global scale biogeochemical and ecological forecasts. The types of models that have been used include conceptual, empirical, mechanistic, and hybrid approaches. This presentation will identify the challenges and progress toward transitioning experimental model-based ecological prediction into operational guidance and forecasting. Recent efforts are targeting integration of regional ocean, hydrodynamic and hydrological models and leveraging weather and water service infrastructure to enable the prototyping of an operational ecological forecast capability for the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries. A path finder demonstration predicts the probability of encountering sea nettles (Chrysaora quinquecirrha), a stinging jellyfish. These jellyfish can negatively impact safety and economic activities in the bay and an impact-based forecast that predicts where and when this biotic nuisance occurs may help management effects. The issuance of bay-wide nowcasts and three-day forecasts of sea nettle probability are generated daily by forcing an empirical habitat model (that predicts the probability of sea nettles) with real-time and 3-day forecasts of sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). In the first demonstration phase, the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) fields are generated by the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS2), a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model developed and operated by NOAA's National Ocean Service and run operationally at the National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Importantly, this system is readily modified to predict the probability of other important target organisms, such as harmful algal blooms, biogeochemical constituents, such as dissolved oxygen concentration, and water-borne pathogens. Extending this initial effort includes advancement of a regional coastal ocean modeling testbed and proving ground. Such formal collaboration is intended to accelerate transition to operations and increase confidence and use of forecast guidance. The outcome will be improved decision making by emergency and resource managers, scientific researchers and the general public. The presentation will describe partnership plans for this testbed as well as the potential implications for the services and research community.

Situational analysis of infant and young child nutrition policies and programmatic activities in Niger.

PubMed

Wuehler, Sara E; Biga Hassoumi, Abdoulazize

2011-04-01

Due to limited progress towards reducing mortality and malnutrition among children <5 years of age, an alliance of international agencies joined to 'Reposition children's right to adequate nutrition in the Sahel,' starting with a situational analysis of current activities related to infant and young child nutrition (IYCN). The main objectives of this analysis are to compile, analyse, and interpret available information on infant and child feeding and the nutrition situation of children <2 years of age in Niger, as one of the six targeted countries. Between August and November 2008, key informants responsible for conducting IYCN-related activities in Niger were interviewed, and 90 documents were examined on: optimal breastfeeding and complementary feeding practices, prevention of micronutrient deficiencies, prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, management of acute malnutrition, food security, and hygienic practices. The results reported are limited by the availability of documents for review. Mortality rates are on track to reaching the Millennium Development Goal to reduce mortality among young children by two-thirds by 2015, but there has been no change in undernutrition, and total mortality rates are still high among young children. Nearly all of the key IYCN topics were addressed, specifically or generally, in national policy documents, training materials, and programmes. A national nutrition council meets regularly to coordinate programme activities nationally. Many of the IYCN-related programmes are intended for national coverage, but few reach this coverage. Monitoring and impact evaluations were conducted on some programmes, but few of these reported on whether the specific IYCN components of the programme were implemented as designed or compared outcomes with non-intervention sites. Human resources have been identified as inadequate to fully carry out nutrition programmes in Niger. Due to these limitations, we could not confirm whether the lack of progress in reducing malnutrition was due to ineffective or inadequately implemented programmes, though both of these were likely contributors. The policy framework is well established for the promotion of optimal IYCN practices, but greater resources and capacity building are needed to: (i) increase human capacities to carry out nutrition programmes; (ii) expand and track the implementation of evidence-based programmes nationally; (iii) improve and carry out monitoring and evaluation that identify effective and ineffective programmes; and (iv) apply these findings in developing, expanding, and improving effective programmes. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Between the Rock and a Hard Place: The CCMC as a Transit Station Between Modelers and Forecasters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hesse, Michael

2009-01-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involved model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of draft Space Weather forecasting tools. This presentation will focus on the latter element. Specifically, we will discuss the process of transition research models, or information generated by research models, to Space Weather Forecasting organizations. We will analyze successes as well as obstacles to further progress, and we will suggest avenues for increased transitioning success.

The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP

PubMed Central

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; da Silva, Arlindo; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; McQueen, Jeffery; Iredell, Mark

2018-01-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5 day dust forecasts at 1°×1° resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered. PMID:29652411

The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP.

PubMed

Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; da Silva, Arlindo; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; McQueen, Jeffery; Iredell, Mark

2016-01-01

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5 day dust forecasts at 1°×1° resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered.

A political analysis of corporate drug donations: the example of Malarone in Kenya.

PubMed

Shretta, R; Walt, G; Brugha, R; Snow, R

2001-06-01

This paper describes the introduction of the Malarone Donation Programme in KENYA: Using a policy analysis approach it illustrates the political nature of donation programmes and how they are affected by a large and varied group of national, regional and international stakeholders, with different levels of influence and experience. The paper shows that interaction between these different groups may affect the development and implementation of the donation programme. It ends by raising some more general questions about public/private partnerships and corporate donation programmes, and their potential impact on national drug policies.

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dreher, Joseph G.

2009-01-01

For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

Logical design of a decision support system to forecast technology, prices and costs for the national communications system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, K. A.; Partridge, E. C., III

1984-09-01

Originally envisioned as a means to integrate the many systems found throughout the government, the general mission of the NCS continues to be to ensure the survivability of communications during and subsequent to any national emergency. In order to accomplish this mission the NCS is an arrangement of heterogeneous telecommunications systems which are provided by their sponsor Federal agencies. The physical components of Federal telecommunications systems and networks include telephone and digital data switching facilities and primary common user communications centers; Special purpose local delivery message switching and exchange facilities; Government owned or leased radio systems; Technical control facilities which are under exclusive control of a government agency. This thesis describes the logical design of a proposed decision support system for use by the National Communications System in forecasting technology, prices, and costs. It is general in nature and only includes those forecasting models which are suitable for computer implementation. Because it is a logical design it can be coded and applied in many different hardware and/or software configurations.

Great Expectations: Teacher Learning in a National Professional Development Programme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Armour, Kathleen M.; Makopoulou, Kyriaki

2012-01-01

This paper reports findings from an evaluation of a national continuing professional development (CPD) programme for teachers in England. Data showed that the localised implementation, opportunities for interactive learning, and "collective participation" were positive factors. Research participants reported difficulties, however, in…

FAA Aviation Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1991-2002

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-02-01

0 DTJCFAA-APO 91-1 US DpartentIC FEBRUARY 1991 of Transportation Federal Aviation MAR 07 ចD Administration FAA AVIATION FORECASTS0 IM MENo II O A...Forecasts, through the National Technical Information Coamuters, Federal Aviation Administra - Service tion, General Aviation, Military Springfield...year 1990, air carrier oper- 5 C-44 0 0 - (N 4 CN 00 -d* 4-: CIF Omm S 0 *0 6 - 0 C 0 0V) u. cm) < C4 00 c ol >ol r..- o uJ .- . C4 4 4-4 0 0 0 0 ~ C

Bill spurs efforts to improve forecasting of inland flooding from tropical storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Newly-enacted U.S. legislation to reduce the threat of inland flooding from tropical storms could provide a "laser beam" focus to dealing with this natural hazard, according to Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-N.C.), the chief sponsor of the bill.The Tropical Cyclone Inland Forecasting Improvement and Warning System Development Act, (PL. 107-253), signed into law on 29 October, authorizes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) to improve the capability to accurately forecast inland flooding from tropical storms through research and modeling.

Long-term US energy outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friesen, G.

Chase Econometrics summarizes the assumptions underlying long-term US energy forecasts. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they compare Chase Econometrics forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the DOE Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Scenario B, the mid-range reference case, is emphasized. The purpose of providing Scenario B as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand. 4 tables.

Averaging business cycles vs. myopia: Do we need a long term vision when developing IRP?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDonald, C.; Gupta, P.C.

1995-05-01

Utility demand forecasting is inherently imprecise due to the number of uncertainties resulting from business cycles, policy making, technology breakthroughs, national and international political upheavals and the limitations of the forecasting tools. This implies that revisions based primarily on recent experience could lead to unstable forecasts. Moreover, new planning tools are required that provide an explicit consideration of uncertainty and lead to flexible and robust planning tools are required that provide an explicit consideration of uncertainty and lead to flexible and robust planning decisions.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" City , St Go Search NCEP Go Current Hazards Watches/Warnings Outlooks National Current Conditions

Application of data assimilation to solar wind forecasting models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Innocenti, M.; Lapenta, G.; Vrsnak, B.; Temmer, M.; Veronig, A.; Bettarini, L.; Lee, E.; Markidis, S.; Skender, M.; Crespon, F.; Skandrani, C.; Soteria Space-Weather Forecast; Data Assimilation Team

2010-12-01

Data Assimilation through Kalman filtering [1,2] is a powerful statistical tool which allows to combine modeling and observations to increase the degree of knowledge of a given system. We apply this technique to the forecast of solar wind parameters (proton speed, proton temperature, absolute value of the magnetic field and proton density) at 1 AU, using the model described in [3] and ACE data as observations. The model, which relies on GOES 12 observations of the percentage of the meridional slice of the sun covered by coronal holes, grants 1-day and 6-hours in advance forecasts of the aforementioned quantities in quiet times (CMEs are not taken into account) during the declining phase of the solar cycle and is tailored for specific time intervals. We show that the application of data assimilation generally improves the quality of the forecasts during quiet times and, more notably, extends the periods of applicability of the model, which can now provide reliable forecasts also in presence of CMEs and for periods other than the ones it was designed for. Acknowledgement: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement N. 218816 (SOTERIA project: http://www.soteria-space.eu). References: [1] R. Kalman, J. Basic Eng. 82, 35 (1960); [2] G. Welch and G. Bishop, Technical Report TR 95-041, University of North Carolina, Department of Computer Science (2001); [3] B. Vrsnak, M. Temmer, and A. Veronig, Solar Phys. 240, 315 (2007).

Public health research systems in the European union

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Strengthening health research is an important objective for international health organisations, but there has been less attention to support for health research in Europe. We describe the public-health (population and organisational level) research systems in the 27 European Union countries. Methods We developed a typology for describing health research structures based on funding streams and strategies. We drew data from internet sources and asked country informants to review these for consistency and completeness. The structures were described as organograms and narratives in country profiles for each of the 27 EU member states. National public-health research structures included public and independent funding organisations, 'mixed' institutions (which receive funds, and both use and allocate them) and provider institutions. Results Most health research is funded through ministries of science or science councils (and sometimes foundations), while parliaments and regions may also contribute. National institutes of public health are usually funded by ministries of health. Many national research organisations both determine research programmes and undertake health research, but there is a move towards public-health sciences within the universities, and a transition from internal grants to competitive funding. Of 27 national research strategies, 17 referred to health and 11 to public health themes. Although all countries had strategies for public health itself, we found little coherence in public-health research programmes. The European Commission has country contact points for both EU research and health programmes, but they do not coordinate with national health-research programmes. Conclusions Public-health research is broadly distributed across programmes in EU countries. Better understanding of research structures, programmes and results would improve recognition for public health in Europe, and contribute to practice. EU ministries of health should give greater attention to national public-health research strategies and programmes, and the European Union and the World Health Organisation can provide coordination and support. PMID:21970897

Development and Use of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System by the National Weather Service to Support the New York City Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shedd, R.; Reed, S. M.; Porter, J. H.

2015-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) has been working for several years on the development of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS). The objective of HEFS is to provide ensemble river forecasts incorporating the best precipitation and temperature forcings at any specific time horizon. For the current implementation, this includes the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). One of the core partners that has been working with the NWS since the beginning of the development phase of HEFS is the New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) which is responsible for the complex water supply system for New York City. The water supply system involves a network of reservoirs in both the Delaware and Hudson River basins. At the same time that the NWS was developing HEFS, NYCDEP was working on enhancing the operations of their water supply reservoirs through the development of a new Operations Support Tool (OST). OST is designed to guide reservoir system operations to ensure an adequate supply of high-quality drinking water for the city, as well as to meet secondary objectives for reaches downstream of the reservoirs assuming the primary water supply goals can be met. These secondary objectives include fisheries and ecosystem support, enhanced peak flow attenuation beyond that provided natively by the reservoirs, salt front management, and water supply for other cities. Since January 2014, the NWS Northeast and Middle Atlantic River Forecast Centers have provided daily one year forecasts from HEFS to NYCDEP. OST ingests these forecasts, couples them with near-real-time environmental and reservoir system data, and drives models of the water supply system. The input of ensemble forecasts results in an ensemble of model output, from which information on the range and likelihood of possible future system states can be extracted. This type of probabilistic information provides system managers with additional information not available from deterministic forecasts and allows managers to better assess risk, and provides greater context for decision-making than has been available in the past. HEFS has allowed NYCDEP water supply managers to make better decisions on reservoir operations than they likely would have in the past, using only deterministic forecasts.

Incorporating Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Seasonal Crop Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa to Support National/Regional/Local Decision Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

The USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) provides seasonal assessments of crop conditions over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and other food insecure regions. These assessments and current livelihood, nutrition, market conditions and conflicts are used to generate food security scenarios that help national, regional and local decision makers target their resources and mitigate socio-economic losses. Among the various tools that FEWS NET uses is the FAO's Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). The WRSI is a simple yet powerful crop assessment model that incorporates current moisture conditions (at the time of the issuance of forecast), precipitation scenarios, potential evapotranspiration and crop parameters to categorize crop conditions into different classes ranging from "failure" to "very good". The WRSI tool has been shown to have a good agreement with local crop yields in the GHA region. At present, the precipitation scenarios used to drive the WRSI are based on either a climatological forecast (that assigns equal chances of occurrence to all possible scenarios and has no skill over the forecast period) or a sea-surface temperature anomaly based scenario (which at best have skill at the seasonal scale). In both cases, the scenarios fail to capture the skill that can be attained by initial atmospheric conditions (i.e., medium-range weather forecasts). During the middle of a cropping season, when a week or two of poor rains can have a devastating effect, two weeks worth of skillful precipitation forecasts could improve the skill of the crop scenarios. With this working hypothesis, we examine the value of incorporating medium-range weather forecasts in improving the skill of crop scenarios in the GHA region. We use the NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecast system (GEFS) weather forecasts and examine the skill of crop scenarios generated using the GEFS weather forecasts with respect to the scenarios based solely on the climatological forecast. The period of analysis is from 1985-2010 (over which the reforecasts of GEFS is available) and the focus season is October-November-December. We examine the improvement (if any) in long-term skill, and present results for several recent drought events in the region.

A strategy for the observation of volcanism on Earth from space.

PubMed

Wadge, G

2003-01-15

Heat, strain, topography and atmospheric emissions associated with volcanism are well observed by satellites orbiting the Earth. Gravity and electromagnetic transients from volcanoes may also prove to be measurable from space. The nature of eruptions means that the best strategy for measuring their dynamic properties remotely from space is to employ two modes with different spatial and temporal samplings: eruption mode and background mode. Such observational programmes are best carried out at local or regional volcano observatories by coupling them with numerical models of volcanic processes. Eventually, such models could become multi-process, operational forecast models that assimilate the remote and other observables to constrain their uncertainties. The threat posed by very large magnitude explosive eruptions is global and best addressed by a spaceborne observational programme with a global remit.

The Impact of the National Newborn Hearing Screening Programme on Educational Services in England

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCracken, Wendy; Young, Alys; Tattersall, Helen; Uus, Kai; Bamford, John

2005-01-01

This article presents results related to the impact on educational support services of the introduction of the first phase of the national Newborn Hearing Screening Programme (NHSP) in England. This study was funded by the Department of Health and undertaken as one element of a national evaluation of NHSP across a range of domains. It presents…

Personality, Cognitive Style, Motivation, and Aptitude Predict Systematic Trends in Analytic Forecasting Behavior.

PubMed

Poore, Joshua C; Forlines, Clifton L; Miller, Sarah M; Regan, John R; Irvine, John M

2014-12-01

The decision sciences are increasingly challenged to advance methods for modeling analysts, accounting for both analytic strengths and weaknesses, to improve inferences taken from increasingly large and complex sources of data. We examine whether psychometric measures-personality, cognitive style, motivated cognition-predict analytic performance and whether psychometric measures are competitive with aptitude measures (i.e., SAT scores) as analyst sample selection criteria. A heterogeneous, national sample of 927 participants completed an extensive battery of psychometric measures and aptitude tests and was asked 129 geopolitical forecasting questions over the course of 1 year. Factor analysis reveals four dimensions among psychometric measures; dimensions characterized by differently motivated "top-down" cognitive styles predicted distinctive patterns in aptitude and forecasting behavior. These dimensions were not better predictors of forecasting accuracy than aptitude measures. However, multiple regression and mediation analysis reveals that these dimensions influenced forecasting accuracy primarily through bias in forecasting confidence. We also found that these facets were competitive with aptitude tests as forecast sampling criteria designed to mitigate biases in forecasting confidence while maximizing accuracy. These findings inform the understanding of individual difference dimensions at the intersection of analytic aptitude and demonstrate that they wield predictive power in applied, analytic domains.

Personality, Cognitive Style, Motivation, and Aptitude Predict Systematic Trends in Analytic Forecasting Behavior

PubMed Central

Forlines, Clifton L.; Miller, Sarah M.; Regan, John R.; Irvine, John M.

2014-01-01

The decision sciences are increasingly challenged to advance methods for modeling analysts, accounting for both analytic strengths and weaknesses, to improve inferences taken from increasingly large and complex sources of data. We examine whether psychometric measures—personality, cognitive style, motivated cognition—predict analytic performance and whether psychometric measures are competitive with aptitude measures (i.e., SAT scores) as analyst sample selection criteria. A heterogeneous, national sample of 927 participants completed an extensive battery of psychometric measures and aptitude tests and was asked 129 geopolitical forecasting questions over the course of 1 year. Factor analysis reveals four dimensions among psychometric measures; dimensions characterized by differently motivated “top-down” cognitive styles predicted distinctive patterns in aptitude and forecasting behavior. These dimensions were not better predictors of forecasting accuracy than aptitude measures. However, multiple regression and mediation analysis reveals that these dimensions influenced forecasting accuracy primarily through bias in forecasting confidence. We also found that these facets were competitive with aptitude tests as forecast sampling criteria designed to mitigate biases in forecasting confidence while maximizing accuracy. These findings inform the understanding of individual difference dimensions at the intersection of analytic aptitude and demonstrate that they wield predictive power in applied, analytic domains. PMID:25983670

Benchmark analysis of forecasted seasonal temperature over different climatic areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giunta, G.; Salerno, R.; Ceppi, A.; Ercolani, G.; Mancini, M.

2015-12-01

From a long-term perspective, an improvement of seasonal forecasting, which is often exclusively based on climatology, could provide a new capability for the management of energy resources in a time scale of just a few months. This paper regards a benchmark analysis in relation to long-term temperature forecasts over Italy in the year 2010, comparing the eni-kassandra meteo forecast (e-kmf®) model, the Climate Forecast System-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CFS-NCEP) model, and the climatological reference (based on 25-year data) with observations. Statistical indexes are used to understand the reliability of the prediction of 2-m monthly air temperatures with a perspective of 12 weeks ahead. The results show how the best performance is achieved by the e-kmf® system which improves the reliability for long-term forecasts compared to climatology and the CFS-NCEP model. By using the reliable high-performance forecast system, it is possible to optimize the natural gas portfolio and management operations, thereby obtaining a competitive advantage in the European energy market.

National responses to global health targets: exploring policy transfer in the context of the UNAIDS ‘90–90–90’ treatment targets in Ghana and Uganda

PubMed Central

McRobie, Ellen; Matovu, Fred; Nanyiti, Aisha; Nonvignon, Justice; Abankwah, Daniel Nana Yaw; Case, Kelsey K; Hallett, Timothy B; Hanefeld, Johanna; Conteh, Lesong

2018-01-01

Abstract Global health organizations frequently set disease-specific targets with the goal of eliciting adoption at the national-level; consideration of the influence of target setting on national policies, programme and health budgets is of benefit to those setting targets and those intended to respond. In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS set ‘ambitious’ treatment targets for country adoption: 90% of HIV-positive persons should know their status; 90% of those on treatment; 90% of those achieving viral suppression. Using case studies from Ghana and Uganda, we explore how the target and its associated policy content have been adopted at the national level. That is whether adoption is in rhetoric only or supported by programme, policy or budgetary changes. We review 23 (14 from Ghana, 9 from Uganda) national policy, operational and strategic documents for the HIV response and assess commitments to ‘90–90–90’. In-person semi-structured interviews were conducted with purposively sampled key informants (17 in Ghana, 20 in Uganda) involved in programme-planning and resource allocation within HIV to gain insight into factors facilitating adoption of 90–90–90. Interviews were transcribed and analysed thematically, inductively and deductively, guided by pre-existing policy theories, including Dolowitz and Marsh’s policy transfer framework to describe features of the transfer and the Global Health Advocacy and Policy Project framework to explain observations. Regardless of notable resource constraints, transfer of the 90–90–90 targets was evident beyond rhetoric with substantial shifts in policy and programme activities. In both countries, there was evidence of attempts to minimize resource constraints by seeking programme efficiencies, prioritization of programme activities and devising domestic financing mechanisms; however, significant resource gaps persist. An effective health network, comprised of global and local actors, mediated the adoption and adaptation, facilitating a shift in the HIV programme from ‘business as usual’ to approaches targeting geographies and populations. PMID:29040476

National responses to global health targets: exploring policy transfer in the context of the UNAIDS '90-90-90' treatment targets in Ghana and Uganda.

PubMed

McRobie, Ellen; Matovu, Fred; Nanyiti, Aisha; Nonvignon, Justice; Abankwah, Daniel Nana Yaw; Case, Kelsey K; Hallett, Timothy B; Hanefeld, Johanna; Conteh, Lesong

2018-01-01

Global health organizations frequently set disease-specific targets with the goal of eliciting adoption at the national-level; consideration of the influence of target setting on national policies, programme and health budgets is of benefit to those setting targets and those intended to respond. In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS set 'ambitious' treatment targets for country adoption: 90% of HIV-positive persons should know their status; 90% of those on treatment; 90% of those achieving viral suppression. Using case studies from Ghana and Uganda, we explore how the target and its associated policy content have been adopted at the national level. That is whether adoption is in rhetoric only or supported by programme, policy or budgetary changes. We review 23 (14 from Ghana, 9 from Uganda) national policy, operational and strategic documents for the HIV response and assess commitments to '90-90-90'. In-person semi-structured interviews were conducted with purposively sampled key informants (17 in Ghana, 20 in Uganda) involved in programme-planning and resource allocation within HIV to gain insight into factors facilitating adoption of 90-90-90. Interviews were transcribed and analysed thematically, inductively and deductively, guided by pre-existing policy theories, including Dolowitz and Marsh's policy transfer framework to describe features of the transfer and the Global Health Advocacy and Policy Project framework to explain observations. Regardless of notable resource constraints, transfer of the 90-90-90 targets was evident beyond rhetoric with substantial shifts in policy and programme activities. In both countries, there was evidence of attempts to minimize resource constraints by seeking programme efficiencies, prioritization of programme activities and devising domestic financing mechanisms; however, significant resource gaps persist. An effective health network, comprised of global and local actors, mediated the adoption and adaptation, facilitating a shift in the HIV programme from 'business as usual' to approaches targeting geographies and populations. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Addressing policy needs for prevention and control of type 2 diabetes in India.

PubMed

Atre, Sachin

2015-09-01

India carries nearly one-fifth of the global burden of diabetes cases, the majority of which are of type 2 diabetes. Recognising the need for controlling diabetes, the Government of India has initiated a national level programme for prevention and control of diabetes along with other non-communicable diseases in 2008. Despite being piloted and implemented, there is hardly any published literature about the national level situation of diabetes and its control efforts. The present article is written with the aim to fill this gap to some extent and to provide a situational analysis of the diabetes problem in India in a holistic way, addressing policy needs for the national programme. It focuses on three main areas, namely, awareness of diabetes, costs of drugs for its treatment and healthcare-system related issues. It argues that poor coverage and weak implementation of the national level programme are major forces that push patients to seek help in the weakly regulated private sector. Approaching the private sector is likely to increase the cost of care, which in turn can lead to an increased financial burden for patients and their families due to factors such as patients' lack of awareness about diabetes, poor drug price regulation and prescriptions including combinations and/or patented products of medicines used for treating diabetes by the private sector. This article addresses several needs such as strengthening the national programme and increasing its reach to unreached districts, exerting drug price regulation and implementing community-based participatory programmes for prevention and management of type 2 diabetes. It also underscores a need for piloting and implementing a robust national level electronic reporting system for diabetes programmes. © Royal Society for Public Health 2015.

Evaluation of precipitation forecasts from 3D-Var and hybrid GSI-based system during Indian summer monsoon 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sanjeev Kumar; Prasad, V. S.

2018-02-01

This paper presents a systematic investigation of medium-range rainfall forecasts from two versions of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)-Global Forecast System based on three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) and hybrid analysis system namely, NGFS and HNGFS, respectively, during Indian summer monsoon (June-September) 2015. The NGFS uses gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) 3D-Var data assimilation system, whereas HNGFS uses hybrid 3D ensemble-variational scheme. The analysis includes the evaluation of rainfall fields and comparisons of rainfall using statistical score such as mean precipitation, bias, correlation coefficient, root mean square error and forecast improvement factor. In addition to these, categorical scores like Peirce skill score and bias score are also computed to describe particular aspects of forecasts performance. The comparison results of mean precipitation reveal that both the versions of model produced similar large-scale feature of Indian summer monsoon rainfall for day-1 through day-5 forecasts. The inclusion of fully flow-dependent background error covariance significantly improved the wet biases in HNGFS over the Indian Ocean. The forecast improvement factor and Peirce skill score in the HNGFS have also found better than NGFS for day-1 through day-5 forecasts.

Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; Barcellos, Christovam; Coelho, Caio A S; Bailey, Trevor C; Coelho, Giovanini Evelim; Graham, Richard; Jupp, Tim; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

2014-07-01

With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Replacing climatological potential evapotranspiration estimates with dynamic satellite-based observations in operational hydrologic prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franz, K. J.; Bowman, A. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Kim, J.; Spies, R.

2011-12-01

In the face of a changing climate, growing populations, and increased human habitation in hydrologically risky locations, both short- and long-range planners increasingly require robust and reliable streamflow forecast information. Current operational forecasting utilizes watershed-scale, conceptual models driven by ground-based (commonly point-scale) observations of precipitation and temperature and climatological potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates. The PET values are derived from historic pan evaporation observations and remain static from year-to-year. The need for regional dynamic PET values is vital for improved operational forecasting. With the advent of satellite remote sensing and the adoption of a more flexible operational forecast system by the National Weather Service, incorporation of advanced data products is now more feasible than in years past. In this study, we will test a previously developed satellite-derived PET product (UCLA MODIS-PET) in the National Weather Service forecast models and compare the model results to current methods. The UCLA MODIS-PET method is based on the Priestley-Taylor formulation, is driven with MODIS satellite products, and produces a daily, 250m PET estimate. The focus area is eight headwater basins in the upper Midwest U.S. There is a need to develop improved forecasting methods for this region that are able to account for climatic and landscape changes more readily and effectively than current methods. This region is highly flood prone yet sensitive to prolonged dry periods in late summer and early fall, and is characterized by a highly managed landscape, which has drastically altered the natural hydrologic cycle. Our goal is to improve model simulations, and thereby, the initial conditions prior to the start of a forecast through the use of PET values that better reflect actual watershed conditions. The forecast models are being tested in both distributed and lumped mode.

JPSS Products, Applications and Training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, J. R.; Connell, B. H.; Miller, S. D.

2017-12-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is a new generation polar-orbiting operational environmental satellite system that will monitor the weather and environment around the globe. JPSS will provide technological and scientific improvements in environmental monitoring via high resolution satellite imagery and derived products that stand to improve weather forecasting capabilities for National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and complement operational Geostationary satellites. JPSS will consist of four satellites, JPSS-1 through JPSS-4, where JPSS-1 is due to launch in Fall 2017. A predecessor, prototype and operational risk-reduction for JPSS is the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, launched on 28 October 2011. The following instruments on-board S-NPP will also be hosted on JPSS-1: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) and the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). JPSS-1 instruments will provide satellite imagery, products and applications to users. The applications include detecting water and ice clouds, snow, sea surface temperatures, fog, fire, severe weather, vegetation health, aerosols, and sensing reflected lunar and emitted visible-wavelength light during the nighttime via the Day/Night Band (DNB) sensor included on VIIRS. Currently, there are only a few polar products that are operational for forecasters, however, more products will become available in the near future via Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System-II (AWIPS-II)-a forecasting analysis software package that forecasters can use to analyze meteorological data. To complement the polar products an wealth of training materials are currently in development. Denoted as the Satellite Foundational Course for JPSS (SatFC-J), this training will benefit NWS forecasters to utilize satellite data in their forecasts and daily operations as they discover their operational value in the NWS forecast process. As JPSS-1 launch nears, training materials will be produced in the form of modules, videos, quick guides, fact sheets, and hands-on exercises.

Economic Impact of Fire Weather Forecasts

Treesearch

Don Gunasekera; Graham Mills; Mark Williams

2006-01-01

Southeastern Australia, where the State of Victoria is located is regarded as one of the most fire prone areas in the world. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology provides fire weather services in Victoria as part of a national framework for the provision of such services. These services range from fire weather warnings to special forecasts for hazard reduction burns....

Climate Forecast System

Science.gov Websites

Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Search : Go Search Go CFS Home CFS version 2 News Documentation Downloads Reanalysis CFSv2 at CPC CFS

Forecasting Performance of Grey Prediction for Education Expenditure and School Enrollment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tang, Hui-Wen Vivian; Yin, Mu-Shang

2012-01-01

GM(1,1) and GM(1,1) rolling models derived from grey system theory were estimated using time-series data from projection studies by National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). An out-of-sample forecasting competition between the two grey prediction models and exponential smoothing used by NCES was conducted for education expenditure and…

INTEGRATION OF SATELLITE, MODELED, AND GROUND BASED AEROSOL DATA FOR USE IN AIR QUALITY AND PUBLIC HEALTH APPLICATIONS ( AGU-BALTIMORE )

EPA Science Inventory

Within the next several years NOAA and EPA will begin to issue PM_2.5 air quality forecasts over the entire domain of the eastern United States, eventually extending to national coverage. These forecasts will provide continuous estimated values of particulate matter on ...

There are calls for a national screening programme for prostate cancer: what is the evidence to justify such a national screening programme?

PubMed

Green, A; Tait, C; Aboumarzouk, O; Somani, B K; Cohen, N P

2013-05-01

Prostate cancer is the commonest cancer in men and a major health issue worldwide. Screening for early disease has been available for many years, but there is still no national screening programme established in the United Kingdom. To assess the latest evidence regarding prostate cancer screening and whether it meets the necessary requirements to be established as a national programme for all men. Electronic databases and library catalogues were searched electronically and manual retrieval was performed. Only primary research results were used for the analysis. In recent years, several important randomised controlled trials have produced varied outcomes. In Europe the largest study thus far concluded that screening reduced prostate cancer mortality by 20%. On the contrary, a large American trial found no reduction in mortality after 7-10 years follow-up. Most studies comment on the adverse effects of screening - principally those of overdiagnosis and subsequent overtreatment. Further information about the natural history of prostate cancer and accuracy of screening is needed before a screening programme can be truly justified. In the interim, doctors and patients should discuss the risks, benefits and sequelae of taking part in voluntary screening for prostate cancer.

An abridged history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, Becaja; McCarron, Eoin; Jonas, Seth

2017-10-01

Public awareness of space weather and its adverse effects on critical infrastructure systems, services, and technologies (e.g., the electric grid, telecommunications, and satellites) has grown through recent media coverage and scientific research. However, federal interest and involvement in space weather dates back to the decades between World War I and World War II when the National Bureau of Standards led efforts to observe, forecast, and provide warnings of space weather events that could interfere with high-frequency radio transmissions. The efforts to observe and predict space weather continued through the 1960s during the rise of the Cold War and into the present with U.S. government efforts to prepare the nation for space weather events. This paper provides a brief overview of the history of federal involvement in space weather forecasting from World War II, through the Apollo Program, and into the present.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Contacts Change Log Events Calendar Numerical Forecast Systems Link to NOAA/ESRL Rapid Refresh page [< ;--click here] Link to NOAA/ESRL High-Resolution Rapid Refresh page [<--click here] NOAA / National

Stakeholder Application of NOAA/NWS River Forecasts: Oil and Water?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, K.; Averyt, K.; Bardlsey, T.; Owen, G.

2011-12-01

The literature strongly suggests that water management seldom uses forecasts for decision making despite the proven skill of the prediction system and the obvious application of these forecasts to mitigate risk. The literature also suggests that forecast usage is motivated most strongly by risk of failure of the water management objectives. In the semi-arid western United States where water demand has grown such that it roughly equals the long term supply, risk of failure has become pervasive. In the Colorado Basin, the US National Weather Service's Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) has partnered with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) to develop a toolkit for stakeholder engagement and application of seasonal streamflow predictions. This toolkit has been used to facilitate several meetings both in the Colorado Basin and elsewhere to assess the factors that motivate, deter, and improve the application of forecasts in this region. The toolkit includes idealized (1) scenario exercises where participants are asked to apply forecasts to real world water management problems, (2) web based exercises where participants gain experience with forecasts and other online forecast tools, and (3) surveys that assess respondents' experience with and perceptions of forecasts and climate science. This talk will present preliminary results from this effort as well as how the CBRFC has adopted the results into its stakeholder engagement strategies.

Collaborative Doctoral Programmes: Employer Engagement, Knowledge Mediation and Skills for Innovation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kitagawa, Fumi

2014-01-01

This paper investigates forms of collaborative doctoral programmes that enable employer engagement in innovation and skills development. Collaborative doctoral programmes exist in different national contexts for the development of the science and technology human capital. Such programmes are also seen as policy tools that enhance relationships…

Delivering Australian Vocational Qualifications through Action Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cother, Robert; Cother, Genevieve

2017-01-01

In 2009, Skills Tasmania approached the authors to deliver their Lean Action Learning programme in Tasmania. This programme had run successfully in South Australia for some five years. For Tasmania, a requirement was that participants in the programme be eligible for a nationally recognised VET qualification on completion of the programme. This…

Mathematics Education in Argentina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varsavsky, Cristina; Anaya, Marta

2009-01-01

This article gives an overview of the state of mathematics education in Argentina across all levels, in the regional and world contexts. Statistics are drawn from Mercosur and UNESCO data bases, World Education Indicators and various national time-series government reports. Mathematics results in national testing programmes, Programme for…

"Care and feeding": the Asian environmental tobacco smoke consultants programme.

PubMed

Assunta, M; Fields, N; Knight, J; Chapman, S

2004-12-01

To review the tobacco industry's Asian environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) consultants programme, focusing on three key nations: China, Hong Kong, and Malaysia. Systematic keyword and opportunistic website searches of formerly private internal industry documents. The release of the 1986 US Surgeon General's report on second hand smoke provoked tobacco companies to prepare for a major threat to their industry. Asian programme activities included conducting national/international symposiums, consultant "road shows" and extensive lobbying and media activities. The industry exploited confounding factors said to be unique to Asian societies such as diet, culture and urban pollution to downplay the health risks of ETS. The industry consultants were said to be "..prepared to do the kinds of things they were recruited to do". The programme was successful in blurring the science on ETS and keeping the controversy alive both nationally and internationally. For the duration of the project, it also successfully dissuaded national policy makers from instituting comprehensive bans on smoking in public places.

"Care and feeding": the Asian environmental tobacco smoke consultants programme

PubMed Central

Assunta, M; Fields, N; Knight, J; Chapman, S

2004-01-01

Study objective: To review the tobacco industry's Asian environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) consultants programme, focusing on three key nations: China, Hong Kong, and Malaysia. Methods: Systematic keyword and opportunistic website searches of formerly private internal industry documents. Main results: The release of the 1986 US Surgeon General's report on second hand smoke provoked tobacco companies to prepare for a major threat to their industry. Asian programme activities included conducting national/international symposiums, consultant "road shows" and extensive lobbying and media activities. The industry exploited confounding factors said to be unique to Asian societies such as diet, culture and urban pollution to downplay the health risks of ETS. The industry consultants were said to be "...prepared to do the kinds of things they were recruited to do". Conclusions: The programme was successful in blurring the science on ETS and keeping the controversy alive both nationally and internationally. For the duration of the project, it also successfully dissuaded national policy makers from instituting comprehensive bans on smoking in public places. PMID:15564219

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

/ VISION | About EMC EMC > GEFS > COLLABORATORS Home Operational Products Experimental Data ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM MSC NAEFS Products CPC NAEFS Experimental 8 to 14 Day Temperature Guidance CPC NAEFS Experimental 8 to 14 Day Precip Guidance NOAA / National Weather Service National Centers for

Maldistribution or scarcity of nurses? The devil is in the detail.

PubMed

Both-Nwabuwe, Jitske M C; Dijkstra, Maria T M; Klink, Ab; Beersma, Bianca

2018-03-01

The goal of this paper was to improve our understanding of nursing shortages across the variety of health care sectors and how this may affect the agenda for addressing nursing shortages. A health care sector comprises a number of health care services for one particular type of patient care, for example, the hospital care sector. Most Western countries are shifting health care services from hospital care towards community and home care, thus increasing nursing workforce challenges in home and community care. In order to implement appropriate policy responses to nursing workforce challenges, we need to know if these challenges are caused by maldistribution of nurses and/or the scarcity of nurses in general. Focusing on the Netherlands, we reviewed articles based on data of a labour market research programme and/or data from the Dutch Employed Persons' Insurance Administration Agency. The data were analysed using a data synthesis approach. Nursing shortages are unevenly distributed across the various health care sectors. Shortages of practical nurses are caused by maldistribution, with a long-term projected surplus of practical nurses in hospitals and projected shortages in nursing/convalescent homes and home care. Shortages of first-level registered nurses are caused by general scarcity in the long term, mainly in hospitals and home care. Nursing workforce challenges are caused by a maldistribution of nurses and the scarcity of nurses in general. To implement appropriate policy responses to nursing workforce challenges, integrated health care workforce planning is necessary. Integrated workforce planning models could forecast the impact of health care transformation plans and guide national policy decisions on transitioning programmes. Effective transitioning programmes are required to address nursing shortages and to diminish maldistribution. In addition, increased recruitment and retention as well as new models of care are required to address the scarcity of nurses in general. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multi-RCM ensemble downscaling of global seasonal forecasts (MRED)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arritt, R. W.

2008-12-01

The Multi-RCM Ensemble Downscaling (MRED) project was recently initiated to address the question, Can regional climate models provide additional useful information from global seasonal forecasts? MRED will use a suite of regional climate models to downscale seasonal forecasts produced by the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal forecast system and the NASA GEOS5 system. The initial focus will be on wintertime forecasts in order to evaluate topographic forcing, snowmelt, and the potential usefulness of higher resolution, especially for near-surface fields influenced by high resolution orography. Each regional model will cover the conterminous US (CONUS) at approximately 32 km resolution, and will perform an ensemble of 15 runs for each year 1982-2003 for the forecast period 1 December - 30 April. MRED will compare individual regional and global forecasts as well as ensemble mean precipitation and temperature forecasts, which are currently being used to drive macroscale land surface models (LSMs), as well as wind, humidity, radiation, turbulent heat fluxes, which are important for more advanced coupled macro-scale hydrologic models. Metrics of ensemble spread will also be evaluated. Extensive analysis will be performed to link improvements in downscaled forecast skill to regional forcings and physical mechanisms. Our overarching goal is to determine what additional skill can be provided by a community ensemble of high resolution regional models, which we believe will eventually define a strategy for more skillful and useful regional seasonal climate forecasts.

A National Health Service Hospital's cardiac rehabilitation programme: a qualitative analysis of provision.

PubMed

O'Driscoll, Jamie M; Shave, Robert; Cushion, Christopher J

2007-10-01

This paper reports a study examining the effectiveness of a London National Health Service Trust Hospital's cardiac rehabilitation programme, from the perspectives of healthcare professionals and patients. Cardiovascular disease is the world's leading cause of death and disability. Substantial research has reported that, following a cardiac event, cardiac rehabilitation can promote recovery, improve exercise capacity and patient health, reduce various coronary artery disease risk factors and subsequently reduce hospitalization costs. Despite these findings and the introduction of the National Service Framework for Coronary Heart Disease, there is wide variation in the practice, management and organization of cardiac rehabilitation services. A purposeful sample of three postmyocardial infarction patients registered on the selected hospital's cardiac rehabilitation programme, coupled with 11 healthcare professionals were selected. The patients acted as individual case studies. The authors followed all three patients through phase III of their cardiac rehabilitation programme. The research attempted to explore the roles and procedures of a London hospital's cardiac rehabilitation programme through an interpretative framework involving qualitative research methods. Participant observation and in-depth semi-structured interviews were the instruments used to collect data. Whilst the healthcare professionals were enthusiastic about coronary heart disease prevention, the London NHS trust hospital's cardiac rehabilitation programme had several barriers, which reduced the programme's success and prevented it from achieving National Service Framework targets. The barriers were complex and mainly included service-related factors, such as lack of professional training, weak communication between primary and secondary care and confused roles and identities. Although the study has immediate relevance for the local area, it highlighted issues of more general relevance to cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention programme development, such as communication and role and identity perceptions in a multi-professional working environment and the need to develop a formal training programme for cardiac rehabilitation healthcare professionals. The results of this study highlight the need for increased investment, improved planning and the introduction of a comprehensive training programme for healthcare practitioners in cardiac rehabilitation. Implementation of these actions may reduce many of the service limitations and barriers that currently surround cardiac rehabilitation programmes.

A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

2015-04-01

Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

How Hydroclimate Influences the Effectiveness of Particle Filter Data Assimilation of Streamflow in Initializing Short- to Medium-range Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, E.; Wood, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

Short- to medium-range (1- to 7-day) streamflow forecasts are important for flood control operations and in issuing potentially life-save flood warnings. In the U.S., the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue such forecasts in real time, depending heavily on a manual data assimilation (DA) approach. Forecasters adjust model inputs, states, parameters and outputs based on experience and consideration of a range of supporting real-time information. Achieving high-quality forecasts from new automated, centralized forecast systems will depend critically on the adequacy of automated DA approaches to make analogous corrections to the forecasting system. Such approaches would further enable systematic evaluation of real-time flood forecasting methods and strategies. Toward this goal, we have implemented a real-time Sequential Importance Resampling particle filter (SIR-PF) approach to assimilate observed streamflow into simulated initial hydrologic conditions (states) for initializing ensemble flood forecasts. Assimilating streamflow alone in SIR-PF improves simulated streamflow and soil moisture during the model spin up period prior to a forecast, with consequent benefits for forecasts. Nevertheless, it only consistently limits error in simulated snow water equivalent during the snowmelt season and in basins where precipitation falls primarily as snow. We examine how the simulated initial conditions with and without SIR-PF propagate into 1- to 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasts. Forecasts are evaluated in terms of reliability and skill over a 10-year period from 2005-2015. The focus of this analysis is on how interactions between hydroclimate and SIR-PF performance impact forecast skill. To this end, we examine forecasts for 5 hydroclimatically diverse basins in the western U.S. Some of these basins receive most of their precipitation as snow, others as rain. Some freeze throughout the mid-winter while others experience significant mid-winter melt events. We describe the methodology and present seasonal and inter-basin variations in DA-enhanced forecast skill.

Capacity building of midwifery faculty to implement a 3-years midwifery diploma curriculum in Bangladesh: A process evaluation of a mentorship programme.

PubMed

Erlandsson, Kerstin; Doraiswamy, Sathyanarayanan; Wallin, Lars; Bogren, Malin

2018-03-01

When a midwifery diploma-level programme was introduced in 2010 in Bangladesh, only a few nursing faculty staff members had received midwifery diploma-level. The consequences were an inconsistency in interpretation and implementation of the midwifery curriculum in the midwifery programme. To ensure that midwifery faculty staff members were adequately prepared to deliver the national midwifery curriculum, a mentorship programme was developed. The aim of this study was to examine feasibility and adherence to a mentorship programme among 19 midwifery faculty staff members who were lecturing the three years midwifery diploma-level programme at ten institutes/colleges in Bangladesh. The mentorship programme was evaluated using a process evaluation framework: (implementation, context, mechanisms of impact and outcomes). An online and face-to-face blended mentorship programme delivered by Swedish midwifery faculty staff members was found to be feasible, and it motivated the faculty staff members in Bangladesh both to deliver the national midwifery diploma curriculum as well as to carry out supportive supervision for midwifery students in clinical placement. First, the Swedish midwifery faculty staff members visited Bangladesh and provided a two-days on-site visit prior to the initiation of the online part of the mentorship programme. The second on-site visit was five-days long and took place at the end of the programme, that being six to eight months from the first visit. Building on the faculty staff members' response to feasibility and adherence to the mentorship programme, the findings indicate opportunities for future scale-up to all institutes/collages providing midwifery education in Bangladesh. It has been proposed that a blended online and face-to-face mentorship programme may be a means to improving national midwifery programmes in countries where midwifery has only recently been introduced. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Studying policy implementation using a macro, meso and micro frame analysis: the case of the Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research & Care (CLAHRC) programme nationally and in North West London

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The publication of Best research for best health in 2006 and the “ring-fencing” of health research funding in England marked the start of a period of change for health research governance and the structure of research funding in England. One response to bridging the ‘second translational gap’ between research knowledge and clinical practice was the establishment of nine Collaborations for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRCs). The goal of this paper is to assess how national-level understanding of the aims and objectives of the CLAHRCs translated into local implementation and practice in North West London. Methods This study uses a variation of Goffman’s frame analysis to trace the development of the initial national CLAHRC policy to its implementation at three levels. Data collection and analysis were qualitative through interviews, document analysis and embedded research. Results Analysis at the macro (national policy), meso (national programme) and micro (North West London) levels shows a significant common understanding of the aims and objectives of the policy and programme. Local level implementation in North West London was also consistent with these. Conclusions The macro-meso-micro frame analysis is a useful way of studying the transition of a policy from high-level idea to programme in action. It could be used to identify differences at a local (micro) level in the implementation of multi-site programmes that would help understand differences in programme effectiveness. PMID:23067208

Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals.

PubMed

Doré, Bruce P; Meksin, Robert; Mather, Mara; Hirst, William; Ochsner, Kevin N

2016-06-01

In the aftermath of a national tragedy, important decisions are predicated on judgments of the emotional significance of the tragedy in the present and future. Research in affective forecasting has largely focused on ways in which people fail to make accurate predictions about the nature and duration of feelings experienced in the aftermath of an event. Here we ask a related but understudied question: can people forecast how they will feel in the future about a tragic event that has already occurred? We found that people were strikingly accurate when predicting how they would feel about the September 11 attacks over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals. Although people slightly under- or overestimated their future feelings at times, they nonetheless showed high accuracy in forecasting (a) the overall intensity of their future negative emotion, and (b) the relative degree of different types of negative emotion (i.e., sadness, fear, or anger). Using a path model, we found that the relationship between forecasted and actual future emotion was partially mediated by current emotion and remembered emotion. These results extend theories of affective forecasting by showing that emotional responses to an event of ongoing national significance can be predicted with high accuracy, and by identifying current and remembered feelings as independent sources of this accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Highly accurate prediction of emotions surrounding the attacks of September 11, 2001 over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals

PubMed Central

Doré, B.P.; Meksin, R.; Mather, M.; Hirst, W.; Ochsner, K.N

2016-01-01

In the aftermath of a national tragedy, important decisions are predicated on judgments of the emotional significance of the tragedy in the present and future. Research in affective forecasting has largely focused on ways in which people fail to make accurate predictions about the nature and duration of feelings experienced in the aftermath of an event. Here we ask a related but understudied question: can people forecast how they will feel in the future about a tragic event that has already occurred? We found that people were strikingly accurate when predicting how they would feel about the September 11 attacks over 1-, 2-, and 7-year prediction intervals. Although people slightly under- or overestimated their future feelings at times, they nonetheless showed high accuracy in forecasting 1) the overall intensity of their future negative emotion, and 2) the relative degree of different types of negative emotion (i.e., sadness, fear, or anger). Using a path model, we found that the relationship between forecasted and actual future emotion was partially mediated by current emotion and remembered emotion. These results extend theories of affective forecasting by showing that emotional responses to an event of ongoing national significance can be predicted with high accuracy, and by identifying current and remembered feelings as independent sources of this accuracy. PMID:27100309

From Kothari Commission Report to Some Inputs for Draft National Education Policy 2016: An Attempt at Contextualizing Current Education Policymaking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tharakan, P. K. Michael

2017-01-01

The Subramanian Committee Report 2016 and the Some Inputs for Draft National Education Policy 2016 (SIDNEP 2016) are compared with its predecessors, the Kothari Commission Report 1964-1966 and the National Education Policy 1986 along with its Programme for Action 1986 and the revised Programme for Action 1992, to see how well its proposals are…

Toward Seasonal Forecasting of Global Droughts: Evaluation over USA and Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric; Yuan, Xing; Roundy, Joshua; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming

2013-04-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are significant sources of social and economic damage. In the United States according to the National Climatic Data Center, the losses from drought exceed US210 billion during 1980-2011, and account for about 24% of all losses from major weather disasters. Internationally, especially for the developing world, drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Providing reliable drought forecasts with sufficient early warning will help the governments to move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. After working on drought monitoring and forecasting over the USA for over 10 years, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing a global drought monitoring and forecasting system using a dynamical seasonal climate-hydrologic LSM-model (CHM) approach. Currently there is an active debate on the merits of the CHM-based seasonal hydrologic forecasts as compared to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). We use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and its previous version CFSv1, to investigate the value of seasonal climate model forecasts by conducting a set of 27-year seasonal hydrologic hindcasts over the USA. Through Bayesian downscaling, climate models have higher squared correlation (R2) and smaller error than ESP for monthly precipitation averaged over major river basins across the USA, and the forecasts conditional on ENSO show further improvements (out to four months) over river basins in the southern USA. All three approaches have plausible predictions of soil moisture drought frequency over central USA out to six months because of strong soil moisture memory, and seasonal climate models provide better results over central and eastern USA. The R2 of drought extent is higher for arid basins and for the forecasts initiated during dry seasons, but significant improvements from CFSv2 occur in different seasons for different basins. The R2 of drought severity accumulated over USA is higher during winter, and climate models present added value especially at long leads. For countries with sparse networks and weak reporting systems, remote sensing observations can provide the realtime data for the monitoring of drought. More importantly, these datasets are now available for at least a decade, which allows for estimating a climatology against which current conditions can be compared. Based on our established experimental African Drought Monitor (ADM) (see http://hydrology.princeton.edu/~nchaney/ADM_ML), we use the downscaled CFSv2 climate forcings to drive the re-calibrated VIC model and produce 6-month, 20-member ensemble hydrologic forecasts over Africa starting on the 1st of each calendar month during 1982-2007. Our CHM-based seasonal hydrologic forecasts are now being analyzed for its skill in predicting short-term soil moisture droughts over Africa. Besides relying on a single seasonal climate model or a single drought index, preliminary forecast results will be presented using multiple seasonal climate models based on the NOAA-supported National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, and with multiple drought indices. Results will be presented for the USA NIDIS test beds such as Southeast US and Colorado NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System) test beds, and potentially for other regions of the globe.

Short-term sea ice forecasts with the RASM-ESRL coupled model: A testbed for improving simulations of ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions in the marginal ice zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, A.; Cox, C. J.; Hughes, M.; Intrieri, J. M.; Persson, O. P. G.

2015-12-01

The dramatic decrease of Arctic sea-ice has led to a new Arctic sea-ice paradigm and to increased commercial activity in the Arctic Ocean. NOAA's mission to provide accurate and timely sea-ice forecasts, as explicitly outlined in the National Ocean Policy and the U.S. National Strategy for the Arctic Region, needs significant improvement across a range of time scales to improve safety for human activity. Unfortunately, the sea-ice evolution in the new Arctic involves the interaction of numerous physical processes in the atmosphere, ice, and ocean, some of which are not yet understood. These include atmospheric forcing of sea-ice movement through stress and stress deformation; atmospheric forcing of sea-ice melt and formation through energy fluxes; and ocean forcing of the atmosphere through new regions of seasonal heat release. Many of these interactions involve emerging complex processes that first need to be understood and then incorporated into forecast models in order to realize the goal of useful sea-ice forecasting. The underlying hypothesis for this study is that errors in simulations of "fast" atmospheric processes significantly impact the forecast of seasonal sea-ice retreat in summer and its advance in autumn in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). We therefore focus on short-term (0-20 day) ice-floe movement, the freeze-up and melt-back processes in the MIZ, and the role of storms in modulating stress and heat fluxes. This study uses a coupled ocean-atmosphere-seaice forecast model as a testbed to investigate; whether ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupling improves forecasts on subseasonal time scales, where systematic biases develop due to inadequate parameterizations (focusing on mixed-phase clouds and surface fluxes), how increased atmospheric resolution of synoptic features improves the forecasts, and how initialization of sea ice area and thickness and snow depth impacts the skill of the forecasts. Simulations are validated with measurements at pan-Arctic land sites, satellite data, and recent ocean field campaigns.

A national econometric forecasting model of the dental sector.

PubMed Central

Feldstein, P J; Roehrig, C S

1980-01-01

The Econometric Model of the the Dental Sector forecasts a broad range of dental sector variables, including dental care prices; the amount of care produced and consumed; employment of hygienists, dental assistants, and clericals; hours worked by dentists; dental incomes; and number of dentists. These forecasts are based upon values specified by the user for the various factors which help determine the supply an demand for dental care, such as the size of the population, per capita income, the proportion of the population covered by private dental insurance, the cost of hiring clericals and dental assistants, and relevant government policies. In a test of its reliability, the model forecast dental sector behavior quite accurately for the period 1971 through 1977. PMID:7461974

Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Preisler, H.K.; Burgan, R.E.; Eidenshink, J.C.; Klaver, Jacqueline M.; Klaver, R.W.

2009-01-01

The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the distributions of (i) number of ignitions; (ii) number of fires above a given size; (iii) conditional probabilities of fires greater than a specified size, given ignition. As an illustration, we used the methods to study the skill of the Fire Potential Index an index that incorporates satellite and surface observations to map fire potential at a national scale in forecasting distributions of large fires. ?? 2009 IAWF.

Forecasting residential electricity demand in provincial China.

PubMed

Liao, Hua; Liu, Yanan; Gao, Yixuan; Hao, Yu; Ma, Xiao-Wei; Wang, Kan

2017-03-01

In China, more than 80% electricity comes from coal which dominates the CO2 emissions. Residential electricity demand forecasting plays a significant role in electricity infrastructure planning and energy policy designing, but it is challenging to make an accurate forecast for developing countries. This paper forecasts the provincial residential electricity consumption of China in the 13th Five-Year-Plan (2016-2020) period using panel data. To overcome the limitations of widely used predication models with unreliably prior knowledge on function forms, a robust piecewise linear model in reduced form is utilized to capture the non-deterministic relationship between income and residential electricity consumption. The forecast results suggest that the growth rates of developed provinces will slow down, while the less developed will be still in fast growing. The national residential electricity demand will increase at 6.6% annually during 2016-2020, and populous provinces such as Guangdong will be the main contributors to the increments.

Phased implementation of spaced clinic visits for stable HIV-positive patients in Rwanda to support Treat All.

PubMed

Nsanzimana, Sabin; Remera, Eric; Ribakare, Muhayimpundu; Burns, Tracy; Dludlu, Sibongile; Mills, Edward J; Condo, Jeanine; Bucher, Heiner C; Ford, Nathan

2017-07-21

In 2016, Rwanda implemented "Treat All," requiring the national HIV programme to increase antiretroviral (ART) treatment coverage to all people living with HIV. Approximately half of the 164,262 patients on ART have been on treatment for more than five years, and long-term retention of patients in care is an increasing concern. To address these challenges, the Ministry of Health has introduced a differentiated service delivery approach to reduce the frequency of clinical visits and medication dispensing for eligible patients. This article draws on key policy documents and the views of technical experts involved in policy development to describe the process of implementation of differentiated service delivery in Rwanda. Implementation of differentiated service delivery followed a phased approach to ensure that all steps are clearly defined and agreed by all partners. Key steps included: definition of scope, including defining which patients were eligible for transition to the new model; definition of the key model components; preparation for patient enrolment; considerations for special patient groups; engagement of implementing partners; securing political and financial support; forecasting drug supply; revision, dissemination and implementation of ART guidelines; and monitoring and evaluation. Based on the outcomes of the evaluation of the new service delivery model, the Ministry of Health will review and strategically reduce costs to the national HIV program and to the patient by exploring and implementing adjustments to the service delivery model.

15 CFR 946.10 - Liaison officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.10 Liaison officer. Prior to restructuring a field office... the provision of timely weather warnings and forecasts. ...

15 CFR 946.10 - Liaison officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.10 Liaison officer. Prior to restructuring a field office... the provision of timely weather warnings and forecasts. ...

15 CFR 946.10 - Liaison officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.10 Liaison officer. Prior to restructuring a field office... the provision of timely weather warnings and forecasts. ...

15 CFR 946.10 - Liaison officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.10 Liaison officer. Prior to restructuring a field office... the provision of timely weather warnings and forecasts. ...

15 CFR 946.10 - Liaison officer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE REGULATIONS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MODERNIZATION OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE § 946.10 Liaison officer. Prior to restructuring a field office... the provision of timely weather warnings and forecasts. ...

PHIRE (Public Health Innovation and Research in Europe): methods, structures and evaluation.

PubMed

Barnhoorn, Floris; McCarthy, Mark; Devillé, Walter; Alexanderson, Kristina; Voss, Margaretha; Conceição, Claudia

2013-11-01

Public Health Innovation and Research in Europe (PHIRE), building on previous European collaborative projects, was developed to assess national uptake and impacts of European public health innovations, to describe national public health research programmes, strategies and structures and to develop participation of researchers through the organizational structures of the European Public Health Association (EUPHA). This article describes the methods used. PHIRE was led by EUPHA with seven partner organisations over 30 months. It was conceived to engage the organisation of EUPHA--working through its thematic Sections, and through its national public health associations--and assess innovation and research across 30 European countries. Public health research was defined broadly as health research at population and organisational level. There were seven Work Packages (three covering coordination and four for technical aspects) led by partners and coordinated through management meetings. Seven EUPHA Sections identified eight innovations within the projects funded by the Public Health Programme of the European Commission Directorate for Health and Consumers. Country informants, identified through EUPHA thematic Sections, reported on national uptake of the innovations in eight public health projects supported by the European Union Public Health Programme. Four PHIRE partners, each taking a regional sector of Europe, worked with the public health associations and other informants to describe public health research programmes, calls and systems. A classification was created for the national public health research programmes and calls in 2010. The internal and external evaluations were supportive. PHIRE described public health innovations and research across Europe through national experts. More work is needed to conceptualize and define public health 'innovations' and to develop theories and methods for the assessment of their uptake and impacts at country and cross-country levels. More attention to methods to describe and assess national public health research programmes, strategies and structures--contributing to development of the European Research Area.

The National Institute for Health Research Leadership Programme

PubMed Central

Jones, Molly Morgan; Wamae, Watu; Fry, Caroline Viola; Kennie, Tom; Chataway, Joanna

2012-01-01

Abstract RAND Europe evaluated the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Leadership Programme in an effort to help the English Department of Health consider the extent to which the programme has helped to foster NIHR's aims, extract lessons for the future, and develop plans for the next phase of the leadership programme. Successful delivery of high-quality health research requires not only an effective research base, but also a system of leadership supporting it. However, research leaders are not often given the opportunity, nor do they have the time, to attend formal leadership or management training programmes. This is unfortunate because research has shown that leadership training can have a hugely beneficial effect on an organisation. Therefore, the evaluation has a particular interest in understanding the role of the programme as a science policy intervention and will use its expertise in science policy analysis to consider this element alongside other, more traditional, measures of evaluation. PMID:28083231

Leadership development: a collaborative approach to curriculum development and delivery.

PubMed

Munro, Kathleen M; Russell, Margot C

2007-07-01

The Leadership Programme in the National Health Service, Lanarkshire, Scotland began in 2002. The programme has been endorsed by the employer, accredited by a higher education institution and approved by the National Health Service Education Board in Scotland as a recognised continuing professional development programme. The success of the programme is due to the combined efforts of the teaching team from the Practice Development Centre, the different stakeholders within the health service in Lanarkshire and Queen Margaret University College, Edinburgh. The focus of this article is the nature of the collaboration between the partners from the initial ideas to the initiation, validation and ongoing delivery of the programme. The article will provide an account of the criteria for partners and key features of the collaboration as well as quality assurance aspects. It will also draw upon the outcomes of the programme in terms of student views and achievement as well as the benefits to the partners.

Critical interactions between Global Fund-supported programmes and health systems: a case study in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

PubMed

Mounier-Jack, Sandra; Rudge, James W; Phetsouvanh, Rattanaxay; Chanthapadith, Chansouk; Coker, Richard

2010-11-01

In Lao PDR, investment by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has played an important role in scaling up the response to HIV and tuberculosis (TB). As part of a series of case studies on how Global Fund-supported programmes interact with national health systems, we assessed the nature and extent of integration of the Global Fund portfolios within the national HIV and TB programmes, the integration of the HIV and TB programmes within the general health system, and system-wide effects of Global Fund support in Lao PDR. The study relied on a literature review and 35 interviews with key stakeholders using the Systemic Rapid Assessment Toolkit and thematic analysis. In Lao PDR, the HIV and TB programmes remain vertical and mostly weakly integrated with the general health system. However, Global Fund investments have extended the network of facilities delivering care at local level, resulting in greater integration with primary care and improved access for patients, particularly for TB. For HIV, as the prevalence remains low, services primarily target high-risk groups in urban areas. Less integrated functions include procurement and drug supply, and monitoring and evaluation. HIV and TB programmes are only starting to coordinate with each other. Global Fund-supported activities are generally integrated within the national disease programmes, except for monitoring and evaluation. Synergies of Global Fund support with the health system include improved access to services, institutional strengthening and capacity building, improved family planning (with wider condom distribution through HIV/AIDS social marketing programmes), and the delivery of add-on interventions, such as vaccinations and health education, alongside Global Fund-supported interventions at community level. Unintended consequences concern the lack of alignment between national stated priorities (maternal and child health) and the strong focus of external partners, such as the Global Fund, on financing communicable disease programmes.

Are Rural Development Programmes Socially Inclusive? Social Inclusion, Civic Engagement, Participation, and Social Capital: Exploring the Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shortall, Sally

2008-01-01

Considerable importance is attached to social exclusion/inclusion in recent EU rural development programmes. At the national/regional operation of these programmes groups of people who are not participating are often identified as "socially excluded groups". This article contends that rural development programmes are misinterpreting the…

Summary results of the 2014-2015 DARPA Chikungunya challenge

DOE PAGES

Del Valle, Sara Y.; McMahon, Benjamin Hamilton; Asher, Jason; ...

2018-05-30

Here, emerging pathogens such as Zika, chikungunya, Ebola, and dengue viruses are serious threats to national and global health security. Accurate forecasts of emerging epidemics and their severity are critical to minimizing subsequent mortality, morbidity, and economic loss. The recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika virus to the Americas underscores the need for better methods for disease surveillance and forecasting.

Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System

Science.gov Websites

services. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Logo Click here to go to the MMAB home page Global Real-Time 17 Oct 2017 at 0Z, the Global RTOFS model has been upgraded to version 1.1.2. Changes include: The ). The global operational Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (Global RTOFS) at the National Centers for

GREAT LAKES FAX-BACK SERVICE

Science.gov Websites

available to ships participating in the Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS) program. To register as a Fax-Back Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts GREAT LAKES FAX-BACK SERVICE Marine Forecast months. Did you know your body can cool 25 times faster in water than in air? That water does not need to

Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Annual Report and Research Highlights 2011-2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.

2012-01-01

Over the last year, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has continued to advance our GEOS-5-based systems, updating products for both weather and climate applications. We contributed hindcasts and forecasts to the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of seasonal forecasts and the suite of decadal predictions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

Summary results of the 2014-2015 DARPA Chikungunya challenge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Del Valle, Sara Y.; McMahon, Benjamin Hamilton; Asher, Jason

Here, emerging pathogens such as Zika, chikungunya, Ebola, and dengue viruses are serious threats to national and global health security. Accurate forecasts of emerging epidemics and their severity are critical to minimizing subsequent mortality, morbidity, and economic loss. The recent introduction of chikungunya and Zika virus to the Americas underscores the need for better methods for disease surveillance and forecasting.

Predicting Rehabilitation Success Rate Trends among Ethnic Minorities Served by State Vocational Rehabilitation Agencies: A National Time Series Forecast Model Demonstration Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Corey L.; Wang, Ningning; Washington, Janique Tynez

2017-01-01

Purpose: This study assessed and demonstrated the efficacy of two select empirical forecast models (i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA] model vs. grey model [GM]) in accurately predicting state vocational rehabilitation agency (SVRA) rehabilitation success rate trends across six different racial and ethnic population cohorts…

The central role of national programme management for the achievement of malaria elimination: a cross case-study analysis of nine malaria programmes.

PubMed

Smith Gueye, Cara; Newby, Gretchen; Tulloch, Jim; Slutsker, Laurence; Tanner, Marcel; Gosling, Roland D

2016-09-22

A malaria eradication goal has been proposed, at the same time as a new global strategy and implementation framework. Countries are considering the strategies and tools that will enable progress towards malaria goals. The eliminating malaria case-study series reports were reviewed to identify successful programme management components using a cross-case study analytic approach. Nine out of ten case-study reports were included in the analysis (Bhutan, Cape Verde, Malaysia, Mauritius, Namibia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Turkmenistan). A conceptual framework for malaria elimination programme management was developed and data were extracted and synthesized. Findings were reviewed at a consultative workshop, which led to a revision of the framework and further data extraction and synthesis. Success factors of implementation, programme choices and changes, and enabling factors were distilled. Decentralized programmes enhanced engagement in malaria elimination by sub-national units and communities. Integration of the malaria programme into other health services was also common. Decentralization and integration were often challenging due to the skill and experience levels of newly tasked staff. Accountability for programme impact was not clarified for most programmes. Motivation of work force was a key factor in maintaining programme quality but there were few clear, detailed strategies provided. Different incentive schemes targeted various stakeholders. Training and supervision, although not well described, were prioritized by most programmes. Multi-sectoral collaboration helped some programmes share information, build strategies and interventions and achieve a higher quality of implementation. In most cases programme action was spurred by malaria outbreaks or a new elimination goal with strong leadership. Some programmes showed high capacity for flexibility through introduction of new strategies and tools. Several case-studies described methods for monitoring implementation quality and coverage; however analysis and feedback to those implementing malaria elimination in the periphery was not well described. Political commitment and sustained financing contributed to malaria programme success. Consistency of malaria programmes depends on political commitment, human and financial resources, and leadership. Operational capacity of the programme and the overall health system structure and strength are also important aspects. Malaria eradication will require adaptive, well-managed malaria programmes that are able to tailor implementation of evidence-based strategies, founded upon strong sub-national surveillance and response, with adequate funding and human resources.

Aspiring Principal Development Programme Evaluation in New Zealand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piggot-Irvine, Eileen; Youngs, Howard

2011-01-01

Purpose: The New Zealand Ministry of Education has constructed a wide-ranging "Professional Development Plan" providing a four-stage national pathway for progression to principalship; the first stage has been the conduction of the National Aspiring Principals Pilot (NAPP) programme in five regional locations. The purpose of this paper is…

The State of the World Environment, 1987. United Nations Environment Programme.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi (Kenya).

One of the main activities assigned to the Governing Council of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is to review the world environmental situation to insure that emerging environmental problems of wide international significance receive appropriate and adequate consideration by governments. Accordingly, UNEP has assessed the state of…

United Nations Environment Programme. Annual Review 1981.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi (Kenya).

This edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) annual report is structured in three parts. Part 1 focuses on three contemporary problems (ground water, toxic chemicals and human food chains and environmental economics) and attempts to solve them. Also included is a modified extract of "The Annual State of the Environment…

Software reliability: Additional investigations into modeling with replicated experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagel, P. M.; Schotz, F. M.; Skirvan, J. A.

1984-01-01

The effects of programmer experience level, different program usage distributions, and programming languages are explored. All these factors affect performance, and some tentative relational hypotheses are presented. An analytic framework for replicated and non-replicated (traditional) software experiments is presented. A method of obtaining an upper bound on the error rate of the next error is proposed. The method was validated empirically by comparing forecasts with actual data. In all 14 cases the bound exceeded the observed parameter, albeit somewhat conservatively. Two other forecasting methods are proposed and compared to observed results. Although demonstrated relative to this framework that stages are neither independent nor exponentially distributed, empirical estimates show that the exponential assumption is nearly valid for all but the extreme tails of the distribution. Except for the dependence in the stage probabilities, Cox's model approximates to a degree what is being observed.

Outreach Programmes for Education and Training: Contributions from the International Cartographic Association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartwright, W. E.; Fairbairn, D.

2012-07-01

Organisations like the International Cartographic Association champion programmes that develop and deliver education and training to cartographers and geospatial scientists, globally. This can be in the form of traditional university and training college programmes, short courses for professional and technical members of mapping agencies and as outreach initiatives to transfer knowledge about the discipline and its contemporary practices. Through its international community, the ICA undertakes the transfer of knowledge about cartography and GI Science by publishing books and special editions of journals and running workshops. Colleagues from the ICA community conduct these workshops on a volunteer basis, generally with the support of the national member organisation of ICA or the national mapping body. For example, the ICA promotes the generation of extensive publications, generally through its Commissions and Working Groups. The publications include books, journals and the ICA Newsletter. Outreach activities are especially pertinent to up skill colleagues from developing countries. Specialist programmes can be offered for professional and 'everyday' map users (from adults to children). The ICA can assist with its current programmes, designed to embrace professional and non-professional cartographers alike. This paper will address how education and outreach programmes can be supported by international associations, by offering programmes independently, or in partnership with sister associations and national and regional organisations and societies. As well, the paper will address the need to deliver education and outreach programmes not to just the professional international community, but also to map users and citizen map publishers.

Development of the New Zealand strategy for local eradication of tuberculosis from wildlife and livestock

PubMed Central

Livingstone, PG; Hancox, N; Nugent, G; Mackereth, G; Hutchings, SA

2015-01-01

Abstract We describe the progressive development of New Zealand's national strategy for control of tuberculosis (TB) in its agricultural sector over the last four decades. The strategy is globally unique, reflecting the need for effective and co-ordinated management of TB in a wildlife maintenance host, the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), in addition to controlling infection in cattle and farmed deer herds. Since the early 1990s, the strategy has been developed by the Animal Health Board (AHB), formed to empower the farming industry to take the leadership role in funding of TB control, policy development and administration. The AHB became the first non-government organisation to develop and gain acceptance by the funders (farming industry and government) of a National Pest Management Strategy (NPMS) under the Biosecurity Act 1993. A key outcome of the NPMS for TB control was the development and inclusion of very challenging objectives that provided direction for management, research and possum control. This paper describes the process whereby the NPMS was revised twice, following achievement of each successive set of strategy objectives within budget. Success was based on firstly, reorganisation of the AHB and its operational systems to achieve increased efficiency; secondly, improved efficiency through contracting possum and disease control, and thirdly research delivering effective and practical applications, while also providing a scientific basis for setting directions for future control strategies. The last revision of the NPMS was implemented in 2011, and included objectives to eradicate Mycobacterium bovis-infected wildlife populations over 2.5 million hectares by 2026. This ambitious objective was adopted only after extensive forecast modelling enabled stakeholders to identify and select the most cost-effective long-term solution for the management of M. bovis-infected possum populations. The accomplishment of New Zealand's TB control programme, in meeting successive sets of demanding NPMS objectives, has seen a 95% decrease in the number of infected cattle and deer herds since they peaked at 1,694 in 1994, and the eradication of TB from infected possum populations from 830,000 hectares. Provided the current level of funding continues, New Zealand is positioned to achieve national eradication of TB well in advance of the 40–50-year timeline forecast 3 years ago. PMID:25651829

Meteorological and Environmental Inputs to Aviation Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Camp, Dennis W. (Editor); Frost, Walter (Editor)

1988-01-01

Reports on aviation meteorology, most of them informal, are presented by representatives of the National Weather Service, the Bracknell (England) Meteorological Office, the NOAA Wave Propagation Lab., the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, and the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association. Additional presentations are included on aircraft/lidar turbulence comparison, lightning detection and locating systems, objective detection and forecasting of clear air turbulence, comparative verification between the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Model and official aviation terminal forecasts, the evaluation of the Prototype Regional Observation and Forecast System (PROFS) mesoscale weather products, and the FAA/MIT Lincoln Lab. Doppler Weather Radar Program.

National Water Model: Providing the Nation with Actionable Water Intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggett, G. R.; Bates, B.

2017-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM) provides national, street-level detail of water movement through time and space. Operating hourly, this flood of information offers enormous benefits in the form of water resource management, natural disaster preparedness, and the protection of life and property. The Geo-Intelligence Division at the NOAA National Water Center supplies forecasters and decision-makers with timely, actionable water intelligence through the processing of billions of NWM data points every hour. These datasets include current streamflow estimates, short and medium range streamflow forecasts, and many other ancillary datasets. The sheer amount of NWM data produced yields a dataset too large to allow for direct human comprehension. As such, it is necessary to undergo model data post-processing, filtering, and data ingestion by visualization web apps that make use of cartographic techniques to bring attention to the areas of highest urgency. This poster illustrates NWM output post-processing and cartographic visualization techniques being developed and employed by the Geo-Intelligence Division at the NOAA National Water Center to provide national actionable water intelligence.

Flood monitoring for ungauged rivers: the power of combining space-based monitoring and global forecasting models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Netgeka, Victor; Raynaud, Damien; Thielen, Jutta

2013-04-01

Flood warning systems typically rely on forecasts from national meteorological services and in-situ observations from hydrological gauging stations. This capacity is not equally developed in flood-prone developing countries. Low-cost satellite monitoring systems and global flood forecasting systems can be an alternative source of information for national flood authorities. The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) has been develop jointly with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the Joint Research Centre, and it is running quasi operational now since June 2011. The system couples state-of-the art weather forecasts with a hydrological model driven at a continental scale. The system provides downstream countries with information on upstream river conditions as well as continental and global overviews. In its test phase, this global forecast system provides probabilities for large transnational river flooding at the global scale up to 30 days in advance. It has shown its real-life potential for the first time during the flood in Southeast Asia in 2011, and more recently during the floods in Australia in March 2012, India (Assam, September-October 2012) and Chad Floods (August-October 2012).The Joint Research Centre is working on further research and development, rigorous testing and adaptations of the system to create an operational tool for decision makers, including national and regional water authorities, water resource managers, hydropower companies, civil protection and first line responders, and international humanitarian aid organizations. Currently efforts are being made to link GloFAS to the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS). GFDS is a Space-based river gauging and flood monitoring system using passive microwave remote sensing which was developed by a collaboration between the JRC and Dartmouth Flood Observatory. GFDS provides flood alerts based on daily water surface change measurements from space. Alerts are shown on a world map, with detailed reports for individual gauging sites. A comparison of discharge estimates from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) with observations for representative climatic zones is presented. Both systems have demonstrated strong potential in forecasting and detecting recent catastrophic floods. The usefulness of their combined information on global scale for decision makers at different levels is discussed. Combining space-based monitoring and global forecasting models is an innovative approach and has significant benefits for international river commissions as well as international aid organisations. This is in line with the objectives of the Hyogo and the Post-2015 Framework that aim at the development of systems which involve trans-boundary collaboration, space-based earth observation, flood forecasting and early warning.

National Transportation Noise Mapping Tool

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

By most forecasts, the U.S. population is projected to grow by over 100 million by 2050. As demand for transportation increases, transportation-related noise will also change. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) has started a national, mult...

THE NOAA - EPA NATIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Building upon decades of collaboration in air pollution meteorology research, in 2003 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) signed formal partnership agreements to develop and implement an operationa...

Aviation Terminal Forecasts

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Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, N. C.; Errico, Ronald M.

2015-01-01

The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

Increased performance in the short-term water demand forecasting through the use of a parallel adaptive weighting strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sardinha-Lourenço, A.; Andrade-Campos, A.; Antunes, A.; Oliveira, M. S.

2018-03-01

Recent research on water demand short-term forecasting has shown that models using univariate time series based on historical data are useful and can be combined with other prediction methods to reduce errors. The behavior of water demands in drinking water distribution networks focuses on their repetitive nature and, under meteorological conditions and similar consumers, allows the development of a heuristic forecast model that, in turn, combined with other autoregressive models, can provide reliable forecasts. In this study, a parallel adaptive weighting strategy of water consumption forecast for the next 24-48 h, using univariate time series of potable water consumption, is proposed. Two Portuguese potable water distribution networks are used as case studies where the only input data are the consumption of water and the national calendar. For the development of the strategy, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method and a short-term forecast heuristic algorithm are used. Simulations with the model showed that, when using a parallel adaptive weighting strategy, the prediction error can be reduced by 15.96% and the average error by 9.20%. This reduction is important in the control and management of water supply systems. The proposed methodology can be extended to other forecast methods, especially when it comes to the availability of multiple forecast models.

Using NMME in Region-Specific Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Bolinger, R. A.; Fry, L. M.; Kompoltowicz, K.

2015-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) provides access to a suite of real-time monthly climate forecasts that comprise the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in an attempt to meet increasing demands for monthly to seasonal climate prediction. While the graphical map forecasts of the NMME are informative, there is a need to provide decision-makers with probabilistic forecasts specific to their region of interest. Here, we demonstrate the potential application of the NMME to address regional climate projection needs by developing new forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the North American Great Lakes, the largest system of lakes on Earth. Regional opertional water budget forecasts rely on these outlooks to initiate monthly forecasts not only of the water budget, but of monthly lake water levels as well. More specifically, we present an alternative for improving existing operational protocols that currently involve a relatively time-consuming and subjective procedure based on interpreting the maps of the NMME. In addition, all forecasts are currently presented in the NMME in a probabilistic format, with equal weighting given to each member of the ensemble. In our new evolution of this product, we provide historical context for the forecasts by superimposing them (in an on-line graphical user interface) with the historical range of observations. Implementation of this new tool has already led to noticeable advantages in regional water budget forecasting, and has the potential to be transferred to other regional decision-making authorities as well.

The Invasive Species Forecasting System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John; Most, Neal; Gill, Roger; Ma, Peter

2011-01-01

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) provides computational support for the generic work processes found in many regional-scale ecosystem modeling applications. Decision support tools built using ISFS allow a user to load point occurrence field sample data for a plant species of interest and quickly generate habitat suitability maps for geographic regions of management concern, such as a national park, monument, forest, or refuge. This type of decision product helps resource managers plan invasive species protection, monitoring, and control strategies for the lands they manage. Until now, scientists and resource managers have lacked the data-assembly and computing capabilities to produce these maps quickly and cost efficiently. ISFS focuses on regional-scale habitat suitability modeling for invasive terrestrial plants. ISFS s component architecture emphasizes simplicity and adaptability. Its core services can be easily adapted to produce model-based decision support tools tailored to particular parks, monuments, forests, refuges, and related management units. ISFS can be used to build standalone run-time tools that require no connection to the Internet, as well as fully Internet-based decision support applications. ISFS provides the core data structures, operating system interfaces, network interfaces, and inter-component constraints comprising the canonical workflow for habitat suitability modeling. The predictors, analysis methods, and geographic extents involved in any particular model run are elements of the user space and arbitrarily configurable by the user. ISFS provides small, lightweight, readily hardened core components of general utility. These components can be adapted to unanticipated uses, are tailorable, and require at most a loosely coupled, nonproprietary connection to the Web. Users can invoke capabilities from a command line; programmers can integrate ISFS's core components into more complex systems and services. Taken together, these features enable a degree of decentralization and distributed ownership that have helped other types of scientific information services succeed in recent years.

Reforming antiretroviral price negotiations and public procurement: the Mexican experience.

PubMed

Adesina, Adebiyi; Wirtz, Veronika J; Dratler, Sandra

2013-01-01

Since antiretroviral (ARV) medicines represent one of the most costly components of therapy for HIV in middle-income countries, ensuring their efficient procurement is highly relevant. In 2008, Mexico created a national commission for the negotiation of ARV prices to achieve price reductions for their public HIV treatment programmes. The objective of this study is to assess the immediate impact of the creation of the Mexican Commission for Price Negotiation on ARV prices and expenditures. A longitudinal retrospective analysis of procurement prices, volumes and type of the most commonly prescribed ARVs procured by the two largest providers of HIV/AIDS care in Mexico between 2004 and 2009 was carried out. These analyses were combined with 26 semi-structured key informant interviews to identify changes in the procurement process. Prices for ARVs dropped by an average of 38% after the first round of negotiations, indicating that the Commission was successful in price negotiations. However, when compared with other upper-middle-income countries, Mexico continues to pay an average of six times more for ARVs. The Commission's negotiations were successful in achieving lower ARV prices. However, price reduction in upper-middle-income countries suggests that the price decrease in Mexico cannot be entirely attributed to the Commission's first round of negotiations. In addition, key informants identified inefficiencies in the forecasting and procurement processes possibly affecting the efficiency of the negotiation process. A comprehensive approach to improving efficiency in the purchasing and delivery of ARVs is necessary, including a better clarification in the roles and responsibilities of the Commission, improving supply data collection and integration in forecasting and procurement, and the creation of a support system to monitor and provide feedback on patient ARV use.

Improving medium-range and seasonal hydroclimate forecasts in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Di

Accurate hydro-climate forecasts are important for decision making by water managers, agricultural producers, and other stake holders. Numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models may have potential for improving hydro-climate forecasts at different scales. In this study, forecast analogs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) based on different approaches were evaluated for medium-range reference evapotranspiration (ETo), irrigation scheduling, and urban water demand forecasts in the southeast United States; the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and the North American national multi-model ensemble (NMME) were statistically downscaled for seasonal forecasts of ETo, precipitation (P) and 2-m temperature (T2M) at the regional level. The GFS mean temperature (Tmean), relative humidity, and wind speed (Wind) reforecasts combined with the climatology of Reanalysis 2 solar radiation (Rs) produced higher skill than using the direct GFS output only. Constructed analogs showed slightly higher skill than natural analogs for deterministic forecasts. Both irrigation scheduling driven by the GEFS-based ETo forecasts and GEFS-based ETo forecast skill were generally positive up to one week throughout the year. The GEFS improved ETo forecast skill compared to the GFS. The GEFS-based analog forecasts for the input variables of an operational urban water demand model were skillful when applied in the Tampa Bay area. The modified operational models driven by GEFS analog forecasts showed higher forecast skill than the operational model based on persistence. The results for CFSv2 seasonal forecasts showed maximum temperature (Tmax) and Rs had the greatest influence on ETo. The downscaled Tmax showed the highest predictability, followed by Tmean, Tmin, Rs, and Wind. The CFSv2 model could better predict ETo in cold seasons during El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events only when the forecast initial condition was in ENSO. Downscaled P and T2M forecasts were produced by directly downscaling the NMME P and T2M output or indirectly using the NMME forecasts of Nino3.4 sea surface temperatures to predict local-scale P and T2M. The indirect method generally showed the highest forecast skill which occurs in cold seasons. The bias-corrected NMME ensemble forecast skill did not outperform the best single model.

Weather Forecaster Understanding of Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bol, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Abshire, W. E.

2013-12-01

Weather forecasters, particularly those in broadcasting, are the primary conduit to the public for information on climate and climate change. However, many weather forecasters remain skeptical of model-based climate projections. To address this issue, The COMET Program developed an hour-long online lesson of how climate models work, targeting an audience of weather forecasters. The module draws on forecasters' pre-existing knowledge of weather, climate, and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In order to measure learning outcomes, quizzes were given before and after the lesson. Preliminary results show large learning gains. For all people that took both pre and post-tests (n=238), scores improved from 48% to 80%. Similar pre/post improvement occurred for National Weather Service employees (51% to 87%, n=22 ) and college faculty (50% to 90%, n=7). We believe these results indicate a fundamental misunderstanding among many weather forecasters of (1) the difference between weather and climate models, (2) how researchers use climate models, and (3) how they interpret model results. The quiz results indicate that efforts to educate the public about climate change need to include weather forecasters, a vital link between the research community and the general public.

Comparative assessment of several post-processing methods for correcting evapotranspiration forecasts derived from TIGGE datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Medina, H.

2017-12-01

Post-processing of medium range reference evapotranspiration (ETo) forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has the potential of improving the quality and utility of these forecasts. This work compares the performance of several post-processing methods for correcting ETo forecasts over the continental U.S. generated from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database using data from Europe (EC), the United Kingdom (MO), and the United States (NCEP). The pondered post-processing techniques are: simple bias correction, the use of multimodels, the Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS, Gneitting et al., 2005) and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA, Raftery et al., 2005). ETo estimates based on quality-controlled U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network measurements, and computed with the FAO 56 Penman Monteith equation, are adopted as baseline. EMOS and BMA are generally the most efficient post-processing techniques of the ETo forecasts. Nevertheless, the simple bias correction of the best model is commonly much more rewarding than using multimodel raw forecasts. Our results demonstrate the potential of different forecasting and post-processing frameworks in operational evapotranspiration and irrigation advisory systems at national scale.

Transition of Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Data Products for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Matthew R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2012-01-01

SPoRT is a team of NASA/NOAA scientists focused on demonstrating the utility of NASA and future NOAA data and derived products on improving short-term weather forecasts. Work collaboratively with a suite of unique products and selected WFOs in an end-to-end transition activity. Stable funding from NASA and NOAA. Recognized by the science community as the "go to" place for transitioning experimental and research data to the operational weather community. Endorsed by NWS ESSD/SSD chiefs. Proven paradigm for transitioning satellite observations and modeling capabilities to operations (R2O). SPoRT s transition of NASA satellite instruments provides unique or higher resolution data products to complement the baseline suite of geostationary data available to forecasters. SPoRT s partnership with NWS WFOs provides them with unique imagery to support disaster response and local forecast challenges. SPoRT has years of proven experience in developing and transitioning research products to the operational weather community. SPoRT has begun work with CONUS and OCONUS WFOs to determine the best products for maximum benefit to forecasters. VIIRS has already proven to be another extremely powerful tool, enhancing forecasters ability to handle difficult forecasting situations.

Status of national diabetes programmes in the Americas.

PubMed Central

White, F.; Nanan, D.

1999-01-01

Reported are the responses in the latter half of 1997 of all ministries of health in the Region of the Americas to the Declaration of the Americas on Diabetes, which was adopted by the Directing Council of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) in 1996 as a basis for national programme development in diabetes. The short-term targets were the designation of national focal points, the preparation of national estimates of the disease burden, and the development and implementation of national strategies and plans to deal with diabetes. The survey found that most countries recognized diabetes as a significant public health problem. In terms of global relevance, a number of lessons have been learned from this exercise: the role of broadly based participation in gaining recognition at the national health policy level; the wide acceptance of an integrated programme model; the relevance of process-related targets to achieve short-term success; and the critical role of having a designated focal point within the managerial approach. PMID:10680245

National Satellite Land Monitoring Systems for REDD+ : the UN-REDD support to countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonckheere, I. G. C.

2015-12-01

REDD+, which stands for 'Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries' - is a climate mitigation effort and aims to create a financial value for the carbon stored in forests, offering incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested lands and invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development. The UN-REDD Programme, a collaborative partnership between FAO, UNDP and UNEP launched in September 2008, supports nationally-led REDD+ processes and promotes the imeaningful involvement of all stakeholders, including Indigenous Peoples and other forest-dependent communities, in national and international REDD+ implementation.The Programme supports national REDD+ readiness efforts in partner countries spanning Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America, in two ways: (i) direct support to the design and implementation of UN-REDD National Programmes; and (ii) complementary support to national REDD+ action through common approaches, analyses, methodologies, tools, data and best practices. The UN-REDD Programme currently supports 62 partner countries. The UN-REDD Programme gathers technical teams from around the world to develop common approaches, analyses and guidelines on issues such as measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of carbon emissions and flows, remote sensing, and greenhouse gas inventories. Within the partnership, FAO supports countries on technical issues related to forestry and the development of cost effective and credible MRV processes for emission reductions. While at the international level, it fosters improved guidance on MRV approaches, including consensus on principles and guidelines for MRV and training programmes. It provides guidance on how best to design and implement REDD, to ensure that forests continue to provide multiple benefits for livelihoods and biodiversity to societies while storing carbon at the same time. Other areas of work include national forest assessments and monitoring of in-country policy and institutional change. The outcomes about the role of satellite remote sensing technologies as a tool for national monitoring under the REDD+ mechanism are here presented. Some specific country examples will be shown and the current use(fulness) of radar and high resolution data is discussed.

Distributed HUC-based modeling with SUMMA for ensemble streamflow forecasting over large regional domains.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saharia, M.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.; Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, E.; Newman, A. J.

2017-12-01

Most operational streamflow forecasting systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach in which some parts of the forecast workflow require an experienced human forecaster. But this approach faces challenges surrounding process reproducibility, hindcasting capability, and extension to large domains. The operational hydrologic community is increasingly moving towards `over-the-loop' (completely automated) large-domain simulations yet recent developments indicate a widespread lack of community knowledge about the strengths and weaknesses of such systems for forecasting. A realistic representation of land surface hydrologic processes is a critical element for improving forecasts, but often comes at the substantial cost of forecast system agility and efficiency. While popular grid-based models support the distributed representation of land surface processes, intermediate-scale Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)-based modeling could provide a more efficient and process-aligned spatial discretization, reducing the need for tradeoffs between model complexity and critical forecasting requirements such as ensemble methods and comprehensive model calibration. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the USACE to implement, assess, and demonstrate real-time, over-the-loop distributed streamflow forecasting for several large western US river basins and regions. In this presentation, we present early results from short to medium range hydrologic and streamflow forecasts for the Pacific Northwest (PNW). We employ a real-time 1/16th degree daily ensemble model forcings as well as downscaled Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) meteorological forecasts. These datasets drive an intermediate-scale configuration of the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) model, which represents the PNW using over 11,700 HUCs. The system produces not only streamflow forecasts (using the MizuRoute channel routing tool) but also distributed model states such as soil moisture and snow water equivalent. We also describe challenges in distributed model-based forecasting, including the application and early results of real-time hydrologic data assimilation.

Assessing the Skill of Chlorophyll Forecasts: Latest Development and Challenges Ahead Using the Case of the Equatorial Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseaux, Cecile S.; Gregg, Watson W.

2018-01-01

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Nino event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p less than 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R=0.33), 8-month (R=0.42) and 9-month (R=0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 microgram chl L(exp -1)) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 microgram chl L(exp -1)). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Nino events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

Forecasting Ocean Chlorophyll in the Equatorial Pacific.

PubMed

Rousseaux, Cecile S; Gregg, Watson W

2017-01-01

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Niño event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Niño. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant ( p < 0.05) for forecast at 1-month ( R = 0.33), 8-month ( R = 0.42) and 9-month ( R = 0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 μg chl L -1 for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 μg chl L -1 for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 μg chl L -1 ) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 μg chl L -1 ). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Niño events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

Real-time demonstration and evaluation of over-the-loop short to medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, A. W.; Clark, E.; Newman, A. J.; Nijssen, B.; Clark, M. P.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Arnold, J. R.

2015-12-01

The US National Weather Service River Forecasting Centers are beginning to operationalize short range to medium range ensemble predictions that have been in development for several years. This practice contrasts with the traditional single-value forecast practice at these lead times not only because the ensemble forecasts offer a basis for quantifying forecast uncertainty, but also because the use of ensembles requires a greater degree of automation in the forecast workflow than is currently used. For instance, individual ensemble member forcings cannot (practically) be manually adjusted, a step not uncommon with the current single-value paradigm, thus the forecaster is required to adopt a more 'over-the-loop' role than before. The relative lack of experience among operational forecasters and forecast users (eg, water managers) in the US with over-the-loop approaches motivates the creation of a real-time demonstration and evaluation platform for exploring the potential of over-the-loop workflows to produce usable ensemble short-to-medium range forecasts, as well as long range predictions. We describe the development and early results of such an effort by a collaboration between NCAR and the two water agencies, the US Army Corps of Engineers and the US Bureau of Reclamation. Focusing on small to medium sized headwater basins around the US, and using multi-decade series of ensemble streamflow hindcasts, we also describe early results, assessing the skill of daily-updating, over-the-loop forecasts driven by a set of ensemble atmospheric outputs from the NCEP GEFS for lead times from 1-15 days.

Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stensrud, David J.; Wicker, Louis J.; Xue, Ming; Dawson, Daniel T.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Thompson, Therese E.; Snook, Nathan A.; Smith, Travis M.; Schenkman, Alexander D.; Potvin, Corey K.; Mansell, Edward R.; Lei, Ting; Kuhlman, Kristin M.; Jung, Youngsun; Jones, Thomas A.; Gao, Jidong; Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Brewster, Keith A.

2013-04-01

The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast-a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations-are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.

Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of Bhutan.

PubMed

Wangdi, Kinley; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Silawan, Tassanee; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; White, Nicholas J; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit

2010-09-03

Malaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the country's prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX. This study was carried out retrospectively using the monthly reported malaria cases from the health centres to Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) and the meteorological data from Meteorological Unit, Department of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. Time series analysis was performed on monthly malaria cases, from 1994 to 2008, in seven malaria endemic districts. The time series models derived from a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was deployed to identify the best model using data from 1994 to 2006. The best-fit model was selected for each individual district and for the overall endemic area was developed and the monthly cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 were forecasted. In developing the prediction model, the monthly reported malaria cases and the meteorological factors from 1996 to 2008 of the seven districts were analysed. The method of ARIMAX modelling was employed to determine predictors of malaria of the subsequent month. It was found that the ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s model (p and P representing the auto regressive and seasonal autoregressive; d and D representing the non-seasonal differences and seasonal differencing; and q and Q the moving average parameters and seasonal moving average parameters, respectively and s representing the length of the seasonal period) for the overall endemic districts was (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12; the modelling data from each district revealed two most common ARIMA models including (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The forecasted monthly malaria cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 varied from 15 to 82 cases in 2009 and 67 to 149 cases in 2010, where population in 2009 was 285,375 and the expected population of 2010 to be 289,085. The ARIMAX model of monthly cases and climatic factors showed considerable variations among the different districts. In general, the mean maximum temperature lagged at one month was a strong positive predictor of an increased malaria cases for four districts. The monthly number of cases of the previous month was also a significant predictor in one district, whereas no variable could predict malaria cases for two districts. The ARIMA models of time-series analysis were useful in forecasting the number of cases in the endemic areas of Bhutan. There was no consistency in the predictors of malaria cases when using ARIMAX model with selected lag times and climatic predictors. The ARIMA forecasting models could be employed for planning and managing malaria prevention and control programme in Bhutan.

An evaluation of National Health Service England's Care Maker Programme: A mixed-methods analysis.

PubMed

Zubairu, Kate; Christiansen, Angela; Kirkcaldy, Andrew; Kirton, Jennifer A; Kelly, Carol A; Simpson, Paul; Gillespie, Andrea; Brown, Jeremy M

2017-12-01

To investigate the impact and sustainability of the Care Maker programme across England from the perspective of those involved in its delivery. The Care Maker programme was launched in England in 2013. It aims to support the "Compassion in Practice" strategy, with particular emphasis on the 6Cs of care, compassion, competence, communication, courage and commitment. Care Makers were recruited in an ambassadorial role. The intention was to inspire individuals throughout the National Health Service in England to bridge national policy with those delivering care. A mixed methods design was chosen, but this article focuses on two of the four distinct empirical data collection phases undertaken as part of this evaluation: a questionnaire with Care Makers; and two case studies of separate National Health Service trust sites. Data were collected for this evaluation in 2015. An online questionnaire was distributed to the total population of Care Makers across the National Health Service in England. It included a combination of open and closed questions. The case studies involved semistructured telephone interviews with a range of professionals engaged with the Care Maker programme across the trust sites. Care Makers reported that participation in the programme had offered opportunities in terms of improving the quality-of-care provision in the workplace as well as contributing towards their own professional development. The Care Maker programme has supported and helped underpin the nursing, midwifery and care strategy "Compassion in Practice". This model of using volunteers to embed strategy and policy could potentially be used in other areas of clinical practice and indeed in other countries. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potentialities of ensemble strategies for flood forecasting over the Milano urban area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Homar, Víctor; Romero, Romu; Lombardi, Gabriele; Mancini, Marco

2016-08-01

Analysis of ensemble forecasting strategies, which can provide a tangible backing for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean region, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international HyMeX programme. Here, we examine two severe hydrometeorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area and for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed. Indeed, flood damage have exponentially increased during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. First, we examine how land-use changes due to urban development have altered the hydrological response to intense rainfalls. Second, we test a flood forecasting system which comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. Accurate forecasts of deep moist convection and extreme precipitation are difficult to be predicted due to uncertainties arising from the numeric weather prediction (NWP) physical parameterizations and high sensitivity to misrepresentation of the atmospheric state; however, two hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have been designed to explicitly cope with uncertainties in the initial and lateral boundary conditions (IC/LBCs) and physical parameterizations of the NWP model. No substantial differences in skill have been found between both ensemble strategies when considering an enhanced diversity of IC/LBCs for the perturbed initial conditions ensemble. Furthermore, no additional benefits have been found by considering more frequent LBCs in a mixed physics ensemble, as ensemble spread seems to be reduced. These findings could help to design the most appropriate ensemble strategies before these hydrometeorological extremes, given the computational cost of running such advanced HEPSs for operational purposes.

Delft-FEWS:A Decision Making Platform to Intergrate Data, Model, Algorithm for Large-Scale River Basin Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, T.; Welles, E.

2017-12-01

In this paper, we introduce a flood forecasting and decision making platform, named Delft-FEWS, which has been developed over years at the Delft Hydraulics and now at Deltares. The philosophy of Delft-FEWS is to provide water managers and operators with an open shell tool, which allows the integratation of a variety of hydrological, hydraulics, river routing, and reservoir models with hydrometerological forecasts data. Delft-FEWS serves as an powerful tool for both basin-scale and national-scale water resources management. The essential novelty of Delft-FEWS is to change the flood forecasting and water resources management from a single model or agency centric paradigm to a intergrated framework, in which different model, data, algorithm and stakeholders are strongly linked together. The paper will start with the challenges in water resources managment, and the concept and philosophy of Delft-FEWS. Then, the details of data handling and linkages of Delft-FEWS with different hydrological, hydraulic, and reservoir models, etc. Last, several cases studies and applications of Delft-FEWS will be demonstrated, including the National Weather Service and the Bonneville Power Administration in USA, and a national application in the water board in the Netherland.

Reaching national consensus on the core clinical skill outcomes for family medicine postgraduate training programmes in South Africa.

PubMed

Akoojee, Yusuf; Mash, Robert

2017-05-26

Family physicians play a significant role in the district health system and need to be equipped with a broad range of clinical skills in order to meet the needs and expectations of the communities they serve. A previous study in 2007 reached national consensus on the clinical skills that should be taught in postgraduate family medicine training prior to the introduction of the new speciality. Since then, family physicians have been trained, employed and have gained experience of working in the district health services. The national Education and Training Committee of the South African Academy of Family Physicians, therefore, requested a review of the national consensus on clinical skills for family medicine training. A Delphi technique was used to reach national consensus in a panel of 17 experts: family physicians responsible for training, experienced family physicians in practice and managers responsible for employing family physicians. Consensus was reached on 242 skills from which the panel decided on 211 core skills, 28 elective skills and 3 skills to be deleted from the previous list. The panel was unable to reach consensus on 11 skills. The findings will guide training programmes on the skills to be addressed and ensure consistency across training programmes nationally. The consensus will also guide formative assessment as documented in the national portfolio of learning and summative assessment in the national exit examination. The consensus will be of interest to other countries in the region where training programmes in family medicine are developing.

Assessing the Effectiveness of the Cone of Probability as a Visual Means of Communicating Scientific Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlove, B. S.; Broad, K.; Meyer, R.

2010-12-01

We review the evolution, communication, and differing interpretations of the National Hurricane Center (NHC)'s "cone of uncertainty" hurricane forecast graphic, drawing on several related disciplines—cognitive psychology, visual anthropology, and risk communication theory. We examine the 2004 hurricane season, two specific hurricanes (Katrina 2005 and Ike 2008) and the 2010 hurricane season, still in progress. During the 2004 hurricane season, five named storms struck Florida. Our analysis of that season draws upon interviews with key government officials and media figures, archival research of Florida newspapers, analysis of public comments on the NHC cone of uncertainty graphic and a multiagency study of 2004 hurricane behavior. At that time, the hurricane forecast graphic was subject to misinterpretation by many members of the public. We identify several characteristics of this graphic that contributed to public misinterpretation. Residents overemphasized the specific track of the eye, failed to grasp the width of hurricanes, and generally did not recognize the timing of the passage of the hurricane. Little training was provided to emergency response managers in the interpretation of forecasts. In the following year, Katrina became a national scandal, further demonstrating the limitations of the cone as a means of leading to appropriate responses to forecasts. In the second half of the first decade of the 21st century, three major changes occurred in hurricane forecast communication: the forecasts themselves improved in terms of accuracy and lead time, the NHC made minor changes in the graphics and expanded the explanatory material that accompanies the graphics, and some efforts were made to reach out to emergency response planners and municipal officials to enhance their understanding of the forecasts and graphics. There were some improvements in the responses to Ike, though a number of deaths were due to inadequate evacuations, and property damage probably exceeded the levels that could have been reached with fuller preparation. Though no hurricanes in 2010 have yet made landfall at the time of the writing of this abstract, coordination has been fuller to support evacuations of vulnerable coastal regions of North Carolina for Hurricane Earl. Through an examination of interviews, newspaper accounts, public comments on the NHC’s site and on weather blogs, we trace the relative weight of these three changes in the improvements in response to forecasts. We conclude that forecast providers should consider more formal, rigorous pretesting of forecast graphics, using standard social science techniques, in order to minimize the probability of misinterpretation.

Evaluation of flash-flood discharge forecasts in complex terrain using precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yates, D.; Warner, T.T.; Brandes, E.A.; Leavesley, G.H.; Sun, Jielun; Mueller, C.K.

2001-01-01

Operational prediction of flash floods produced by thunderstorm (convective) precipitation in mountainous areas requires accurate estimates or predictions of the precipitation distribution in space and time. The details of the spatial distribution are especially critical in complex terrain because the watersheds are generally small in size, and small position errors in the forecast or observed placement of the precipitation can distribute the rain over the wrong watershed. In addition to the need for good precipitation estimates and predictions, accurate flood prediction requires a surface-hydrologic model that is capable of predicting stream or river discharge based on the precipitation-rate input data. Different techniques for the estimation and prediction of convective precipitation will be applied to the Buffalo Creek, Colorado flash flood of July 1996, where over 75 mm of rain from a thunderstorm fell on the watershed in less than 1 h. The hydrologic impact of the precipitation was exacerbated by the fact that a significant fraction of the watershed experienced a wildfire approximately two months prior to the rain event. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service's operational Weather Surveillance Radar-Doppler 1988 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-band, research, dual-polarization radar, colocated to the east of Denver, are compared. In addition, very short range forecasts from a convection-resolving dynamic model, which is initialized variationally using the radar reflectivity and Doppler winds, are compared with forecasts from an automated-algorithmic forecast system that also employs the radar data. The radar estimates of rain rate, and the two forecasting systems that employ the radar data, have degraded accuracy by virtue of the fact that they are applied in complex terrain. Nevertheless, the radar data and forecasts from the dynamic model and the automated algorithm could be operationally useful for input to surface-hydrologic models employed for flood warning. Precipitation data provided by these various techniques at short time scales and at fine spatial resolutions are employed as detailed input to a distributed-parameter hydrologic model for flash-flood prediction and analysis. With the radar-based precipitation estimates employed as input, the simulated flood discharge was similar to that observed. The dynamic-model precipitation forecast showed the most promise in providing a significant discharge-forecast lead time. The algorithmic system's precipitation forecast did not demonstrate as much skill, but the associated discharge forecast would still have been sufficient to have provided an alert of impending flood danger.

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in Korea: Past and Future 5 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, D.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.

2005-05-01

The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach was first introduced in 2000 by the Hydrology Research Group (HRG) at Seoul National University as an alternative probabilistic forecasting technique for improving the 'Water Supply Outlook' That is issued every month by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation in Korea. That study motivated the Korea Water Resources Corporation (KOWACO) to establish their seasonal probabilistic forecasting system for the 5 major river basins using the ESP approach. In cooperation with the HRG, the KOWACO developed monthly optimal multi-reservoir operating systems for the Geum river basin in 2004, which coupled the ESP forecasts with an optimization model using sampling stochastic dynamic programming. The user interfaces for both ESP and SSDP have also been designed for the developed computer systems to become more practical. More projects for developing ESP systems to the other 3 major river basins (i.e. the Nakdong, Han and Seomjin river basins) was also completed by the HRG and KOWACO at the end of December 2004. Therefore, the ESP system has become the most important mid- and long-term streamflow forecast technique in Korea. In addition to the practical aspects, resent research experience on ESP has raised some concerns into ways of improving the accuracy of ESP in Korea. Jeong and Kim (2002) performed an error analysis on its resulting probabilistic forecasts and found that the modeling error is dominant in the dry season, while the meteorological error is dominant in the flood season. To address the first issue, Kim et al. (2004) tested various combinations and/or combining techniques and showed that the ESP probabilistic accuracy could be improved considerably during the dry season when the hydrologic models were combined and/or corrected. In addition, an attempt was also made to improve the ESP accuracy for the flood season using climate forecast information. This ongoing project handles three types of climate forecast information: (1) the Monthly Industrial Meteorology Information Magazine (MIMIM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (2) the Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (GDAPS), and (3) the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Each of these forecasts is issued in a unique format: (1) MIMIM is a most-probable-event forecast, (2) GDAPS is a single series of deterministic forecasts, and (3) NCEP is an ensemble of deterministic forecasts. Other minor issues include how long the initial conditions influences the ESP accuracy, and how many ESP scenarios are needed to obtain the best accuracy. This presentation also addresses some future research that is needed for ESP in Korea.

The effects of placing an operational research fellow within the Viet Nam National Tuberculosis Programme.

PubMed

Hoa, N B; Nhung, N V; Kumar, A M V; Harries, A D

2016-12-21

In April 2009, an operational research fellow was placed within the Viet Nam National Tuberculosis Control Programme (NTP). Over the 6 years from 2010 to 2015, the OR fellow co-authored 21 tuberculosis research papers (as principal author in 15 [71%]). This constituted 23% of the 91 tuberculosis papers published in Viet Nam during this period. Of the 21 published papers, 16 (76%) contributed to changes in policy ( n = 8) and practice ( n = 8), and these in turn improved programme performance. Many papers also contributed important evidence for better programme planning. Highly motivated OR fellows embedded within NTPs can facilitate high-quality research and research uptake.

Cloud Computing Applications in Support of Earth Science Activities at Marshall Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

2011-01-01

Currently, the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform is available to Agency personnel in a pre-release status as the system undergoes a formal operational readiness review. Over the past year, two projects within the Earth Science Office at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have been investigating the performance and value of Nebula s "Infrastructure as a Service", or "IaaS" concept and applying cloud computing concepts to advance their respective mission goals. The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique NASA satellite observations and weather forecasting capabilities for use within the operational forecasting community through partnerships with NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS). SPoRT has evaluated the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on virtual machines deployed within Nebula and used Nebula instances to simulate local forecasts in support of regional forecast studies of interest to select NWS forecast offices. In addition to weather forecasting applications, rapidly deployable Nebula virtual machines have supported the processing of high resolution NASA satellite imagery to support disaster assessment following the historic severe weather and tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011. Other modeling and satellite analysis activities are underway in support of NASA s SERVIR program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor environmental change and improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas. Leveraging SPoRT s experience, SERVIR is working to establish a real-time weather forecasting model for Central America. Other modeling efforts include hydrologic forecasts for Kenya, driven by NASA satellite observations and reanalysis data sets provided by the broader meteorological community. Forecast modeling efforts are supplemented by short-term forecasts of convective initiation, determined by geostationary satellite observations processed on virtual machines powered by Nebula.

The Invasive Species Forecasting System: A Space-Based Decision Support Infrastructure for Managing Biological Invasions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Most, N. N.; Kendig, D.; Wichman, K.; Pollack, N.; Ilagan, A.; Morisette, J. T.; Pedelty, J. A.; Tilmes, C.; Smith, J. A.; Pfister, R.; Schnase, J. L.; Stohgren, T. J.; Crosier, C.; Graham, J.; Newman, G.; Kalkhan, M. A.; Reich, R.

2004-12-01

The spread of invasive species is one of the most daunting environmental, economic, and human-health problems facing the United States and the World today. It is one of several grand challenge environmental problems being addressed by NASA's Science Mission Directorate through a national application partnership with the US Geological Survey. NASA and USGS are working together to develop a National Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) for the management and control of invasive species on Department of Interior and adjacent lands. As part of this effort, we are using NASA's EOS Clearing House (ECHO) framework to create an Invasive Species Data Service (ISDS). The ISDS will be a networked service that integrates a suite of NASA remote sensing data providers with the ecological field data resources of the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII). Aggregated ISDS data will feed directly into ISFS analysis routines to produce landscape-scale predictive maps of species distributions. ISDS and the ECHO framework thus provide an efficient interface between existing NASA data systems and decision support systems that are the province of federal agencies and other national organizations. The effort significantly broadens the use of NASA data in managing the Nation's invasive species threat. In this talk, we will describe the NASA/USGS invasive species partnership, provide an overview of the Invasive Species Forecasting System, and show how we are using ECHO technologies as the middle-ware framework for a comprehensive Invasive Species Data Service.

Withdrawing low risk women from cervical screening programmes: mathematical modelling study.

PubMed

Sherlaw-Johnson, C; Gallivan, S; Jenkins, D

1999-02-06

To evaluate the impact of policies for removing women before the recommended age of 64 from screening programmes for cervical cancer in the United Kingdom. A mathematical model of the clinical course of precancerous lesions which accounts for the influence of infection with the human papillomavirus, the effects of screening on the progression of disease, and the accuracy of the testing procedures. Two policies are compared: one in which women are withdrawn from the programme if their current smear is negative and they have a recent history of regular, negative results and one in which women are withdrawn if their current smear test is negative and a simultaneous test is negative for exposure to high risk types of human papillomavirus. United Kingdom cervical screening programme. The incidence of invasive cervical cancer and the use of resources. Early withdrawal of selected women from the programme is predicted to give rise to resource savings of up to 25% for smear tests and 18% for colposcopies when withdrawal occurs from age 50, the youngest age considered in the study. An increase in the incidence of invasive cervical cancer, by up to 2 cases/100 000 women each year is predicted. Testing for human papillomavirus infection to determine which women should be withdrawn from the programme makes little difference to outcome. This model systematically analyses the consequences of screening options using available data and the clinical course of precancerous lesions. If further audit studies confirm the model's forecasts, a policy of early withdrawal might be considered. This would be likely to release substantial resources which could be channelled into other aspects of health care or may be more effectively used within the cervical screening programme to counteract the possible increase in cancer incidence that early withdrawal might bring.

The evolution and provision of expert knowledge and its effective utilisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sammonds, Peter

2017-04-01

The specific aims of increasing Resilience to Natural Hazards in China programme are (i) to improve hazard forecasting, risk mitigation and preparedness based upon reliable knowledge of the fundamental processes involved and underpinned by basic science and, (ii) to improve the uptake of and responses to scientific advice, by developing risk-based approaches to natural hazards in collaboration with the communities at risk. One of the programme's principal goals is to integrate natural and social science research to increase the benefits for those affected by natural hazards. To that end a co-productive approach to research is expected, involving a framework for sharing knowledge and values between natural and social scientists and consultation with policy makers, civil society and other stakeholders. This paper explore knowledge relationships and reflective learning across disciplines. There is commonly a disjunction between the evolution and provision of expert knowledge and its effective utilisation. Building on experience as Strategic Advisor to the Increasing Resilience to Natural Hazards programme, this paper addresses the research needs to assess how scientific knowledge and risk reduction strategies can be most effectively developed and communicated.

India. National Studies. Asia-Pacific Programme of Education for All.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Principal Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific.

This study examines the work of the Asia-Pacific Programme of Education for All (APPEAL) since its 1987 inception. Efforts to assess educational achievement at the local, regional, and national levels in India are examined with a view to achieving universal primary education (UPE); eradicating illiteracy; and providing continuing education in…

Planning and Administration of National Literacy Programmes: The Indian Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bordia, Anil

In reporting the history and status of the National Adult Education Programme of India (NAEP), a five-year literacy campaign (1979-84) that was designed to educate approximately 100 million persons, this study emphasizes the program's preparatory phase and its monitoring/evaluation systems. After a survey of the literacy needs and past literacy…

Improving Student Learning in Calculus through Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, C. Y.; Georgiopoulos, M.; Hagen, S. C.; Geiger, C. L.; Dagley-Falls, M. A.; Islas, A. L.; Ramsey, P. J.; Lancey, P. M.; Straney, R. A.; Forde, D. S.; Bradbury, E. E.

2011-01-01

Nationally only 40% of the incoming freshmen Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) majors are successful in earning a STEM degree. The University of Central Florida (UCF) EXCEL programme is a National Science Foundation funded STEM Talent Expansion Programme whose goal is to increase the number of UCF STEM graduates. One of the…

Bangladesh. National Studies. Asia-Pacific Programme of Education for All.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Principal Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific.

This study examines the work of the Asia-Pacific Programme of Education for All (APPEAL) since its 1987 inception. Efforts to assess educational achievement at the local, regional, and national levels in Bangladesh are examined with a view to achieving universal primary education; eradicating illiteracy; and providing continuing education in…

International Student Mobility and the Bologna Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teichler, Ulrich

2012-01-01

The Bologna Process is the newest of a chain of activities stimulated by supra-national actors since the 1950s to challenge national borders in higher education in Europe. Now, the ministers in charge of higher education of the individual European countries have agreed to promote a similar cycle-structure of study programmes and programmes based…

Levels of cardiovascular disease risk factors in Singapore following a national intervention programme.

PubMed Central

Cutter, J.; Tan, B. Y.; Chew, S. K.

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the National Healthy Lifestyle Programme, a noncommunicable disease intervention programme for major cardiovascular disease risk factors in Singapore, implemented in 1992. METHODS: The evaluation was carried out in 1998 by the Singapore National Health Survey (NHS). The reference population was 2.2 million multiracial Singapore residents, 18-69 years of age. A population-based survey sample (n = 4723) was selected by disproportionate stratified and systematic sampling. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were carried out on all subjects and blood samples were taken for biochemical analysis. FINDINGS: The 1998 results suggest that the National Healthy Lifestyle Programme significantly decreased regular smoking and increased regular exercise over 1992 levels and stabilized the prevalence of obesity and diabetes mellitus. However, the prevalence of high total blood cholesterol and hypertension increased. Ethnic differences in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and smoking; and in lipid profile and exercise levels were also observed. CONCLUSION: The intervention had mixed results after six years. Successful strategies have been continued and strengthened. PMID:11693972

African swine fever: background, present time and prospects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The purpose of this monograph is to summarize the existing international and national experience of monitoring, diagnostics, forecasting, and implementing measures of management and control of ASF. This publication contains national and international regulatory documents, reference materials and the...

The air quality forecast in Beijing with Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ) System: model evaluation and improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2013-12-01

The MM5-SMOKE-CMAQ model system, which is developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency(U.S. EPA) as the Models-3 system, has been used for the daily air quality forecast in the Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center(Beijing MEMC), as a part of the Ensemble Air Quality Forecast System for Beijing(EMS-Beijing) since the Olympic Games year 2008. In this study, we collect the daily forecast results of the CMAQ model in the whole year 2010 for the model evaluation. The results show that the model play a good model performance in most days but underestimate obviously in some air pollution episode. A typical air pollution episode from 11st - 20th January 2010 was chosen, which the air pollution index(API) of particulate matter (PM10) observed by Beijing MEMC reaches to 180 while the prediction of PM10-API is about 100. Taking in account all stations in Beijing, including urban and suburban stations, three numerical methods are used for model improvement: firstly, enhance the inner domain with 4km grids, the coverage from only Beijing to the area including its surrounding cities; secondly, update the Beijing stationary area emission inventory, from statistical county-level to village-town level, that would provide more detail spatial informance for area emissions; thirdly, add some industrial points emission in Beijing's surrounding cities, the latter two are both the improvement of emission. As the result, the peak of the nine national standard stations averaged PM10-API, which is simulated by CMAQ as daily hindcast PM10-API, reach to 160 and much near to the observation. The new results show better model performance, which the correlation coefficent is 0.93 in national standard stations average and 0.84 in all stations, the relative error is 15.7% in national standard stations averaged and 27% in all stations. The time series of 9 national standard in Beijing urban The scatter diagram of all stations in Beijing, the red is the forecast and the blue is new result.

Institutional evolution of a community-based programme for malaria control through larval source management in Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania.

PubMed

Chaki, Prosper P; Kannady, Khadija; Mtasiwa, Deo; Tanner, Marcel; Mshinda, Hassan; Kelly, Ann H; Killeen, Gerry F

2014-06-25

Community-based service delivery is vital to the effectiveness, affordability and sustainability of vector control generally, and to labour-intensive larval source management (LSM) programmes in particular. The institutional evolution of a city-level, community-based LSM programme over 14 years in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, illustrates how operational research projects can contribute to public health governance and to the establishment of sustainable service delivery programmes. Implementation, management and governance of this LSM programme is framed within a nested set of spatially-defined relationships between mosquitoes, residents, government and research institutions that build upward from neighbourhood to city and national scales. The clear hierarchical structure associated with vertical, centralized management of decentralized, community-based service delivery, as well as increasingly clear differentiation of partner roles and responsibilities across several spatial scales, contributed to the evolution and subsequent growth of the programme. The UMCP was based on the principle of an integrated operational research project that evolved over time as the City Council gradually took more responsibility for management. The central role of Dar es Salaam's City Council in coordinating LSM implementation enabled that flexibility; the institutionalization of management and planning in local administrative structures enhanced community-mobilization and funding possibilities at national and international levels. Ultimately, the high degree of program ownership by the City Council and three municipalities, coupled with catalytic donor funding and technical support from expert overseas partners have enabled establishment of a sustainable, internally-funded programme implemented by the National Ministry of Health and Social Welfare and supported by national research and training institutes.

Institutional evolution of a community-based programme for malaria control through larval source management in Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Community-based service delivery is vital to the effectiveness, affordability and sustainability of vector control generally, and to labour-intensive larval source management (LSM) programmes in particular. Case description The institutional evolution of a city-level, community-based LSM programme over 14 years in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, illustrates how operational research projects can contribute to public health governance and to the establishment of sustainable service delivery programmes. Implementation, management and governance of this LSM programme is framed within a nested set of spatially-defined relationships between mosquitoes, residents, government and research institutions that build upward from neighbourhood to city and national scales. Discussion and evaluation The clear hierarchical structure associated with vertical, centralized management of decentralized, community-based service delivery, as well as increasingly clear differentiation of partner roles and responsibilities across several spatial scales, contributed to the evolution and subsequent growth of the programme. Conclusions The UMCP was based on the principle of an integrated operational research project that evolved over time as the City Council gradually took more responsibility for management. The central role of Dar es Salaam’s City Council in coordinating LSM implementation enabled that flexibility; the institutionalization of management and planning in local administrative structures enhanced community-mobilization and funding possibilities at national and international levels. Ultimately, the high degree of program ownership by the City Council and three municipalities, coupled with catalytic donor funding and technical support from expert overseas partners have enabled establishment of a sustainable, internally-funded programme implemented by the National Ministry of Health and Social Welfare and supported by national research and training institutes. PMID:24964790

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting: Experiences from the US and Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, Justin; Chaney, Nate; Yuan, Xing; Wood, Eric

2013-04-01

Drought has important but very different consequences regionally due to differences in vulnerability. These differences derive from variations in exposure related to climate variability and change, sensitivity of local populations, and coping capacity at all levels. Managing the risk of drought impacts relies on a variety of measures to reduce vulnerability that includes forewarning of drought development through early-warning systems. Existing systems rely on a variety of observing systems from satellites to local observers, modeling tools, and data dissemination methods. They range from sophisticated state-of-the-art systems to simple ground reports. In some regions, systems are virtually non-existent due to limited national capacity. This talk describes our experiences in developing and implementing drought monitoring and seasonal forecast systems in the US and sub-Saharan Africa as contrasting examples of the scientific challenges and user needs in developing early warning systems. In particular, early warning can help improve livelihoods based on subsistence farming in sub-Saharan Africa; whist reduction of economic impacts is generally foremost in the US. For the US, our national drought monitoring and seasonal forecast system has been operational for over 8 years and provides near real-time updates on hydrological states at ~12km resolution and hydrological forecasts out to 9 months. Output from the system contributes to national assessments such as from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the US National Drought Monitor (USDM). For sub-Saharan Africa, our experimental drought monitoring system was developed as a translation of the US system but presents generally greater challenges due to, for example, lack of ground data and unique user needs. The system provides near real-time updates based on hydrological modeling and satellite based precipitation estimates, and has recently been augmented by a seasonal forecast component. We discuss the differences in experiences in development and implementation between the two systems in terms of the scientific challenges and the utility of the systems to stakeholders, for whom the information must be relevant to local conditions and needs.

Working toward a sustainable laboratory quality improvement programme through country ownership: Mozambique's SLMTA story.

PubMed

Masamha, Jessina; Skaggs, Beth; Pinto, Isabel; Mandlaze, Ana Paula; Simbine, Carolina; Chongo, Patrina; de Sousa, Leonardo; Kidane, Solon; Yao, Katy; Luman, Elizabeth T; Samogudo, Eduardo

2014-01-01

Launched in 2009, the Strengthening Laboratory Management Toward Accreditation (SLMTA) programme has emerged as an innovative approach for the improvement of laboratory quality. In order to ensure sustainability, Mozambique embedded the SLMTA programme within the existing Ministry of Health (MOH) laboratory structure. This article outlines the steps followed to establish a national framework for quality improvement and embedding the SLMTA programme within existing MOH laboratory systems. The MOH adopted SLMTA as the national laboratory quality improvement strategy, hired a dedicated coordinator and established a national laboratory quality technical working group comprising mostly personnel from key MOH departments. The working group developed an implementation framework for advocacy, training, mentorship, supervision and audits. Emphasis was placed on building local capacity for programme activities. After receiving training, a team of 25 implementers (18 from the MOH and seven from partner organisations) conducted baseline audits (using the Stepwise Laboratory Quality Improvement Process Towards Accreditation [SLIPTA] checklist), workshops and site visits in six reference and two central hospital laboratories. Exit audits were conducted in six of the eight laboratories and their results are presented. The six laboratories demonstrated substantial improvement in audit scores; median scores increased from 35% at baseline to 57% at exit. It has been recommended that the National Tuberculosis Reference Laboratory apply for international accreditation. Successful implementation of SLMTA requires partnership between programme implementers, whilst effectiveness and long-term viability depend on country leadership, ownership and commitment. Integration of SLMTA into the existing MOH laboratory system will ensure durability beyond initial investments. The Mozambican model holds great promise that country leadership, ownership and institutionalisation can set the stage for programme success and sustainability.

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

2010-01-01

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

General Manpower Forecasts: Some Indications for the Employment Outlook in Student Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brodzinski, Frederick R.

Manpower forecasts, available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. Department of Commerce, the Census Bureau, and the National Center for Education Statistics, indicate that from 1970 to 1990 there will be significant major shifts in the number of Americans in the prime-age group of 25-44 years of age. This…

Bayesian Processor of Output for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Maranzano, C. J.

2006-05-01

The Bayesian Processor of Output (BPO) is a new, theoretically-based technique for probabilistic forecasting of weather variates. It processes output from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and optimally fuses it with climatic data in order to quantify uncertainty about a predictand. The BPO is being tested by producing Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (PQPFs) for a set of climatically diverse stations in the contiguous U.S. For each station, the PQPFs are produced for the same 6-h, 12-h, and 24-h periods up to 84- h ahead for which operational forecasts are produced by the AVN-MOS (Model Output Statistics technique applied to output fields from the Global Spectral Model run under the code name AVN). The inputs into the BPO are estimated as follows. The prior distribution is estimated from a (relatively long) climatic sample of the predictand; this sample is retrieved from the archives of the National Climatic Data Center. The family of the likelihood functions is estimated from a (relatively short) joint sample of the predictor vector and the predictand; this sample is retrieved from the same archive that the Meteorological Development Laboratory of the National Weather Service utilized to develop the AVN-MOS system. This talk gives a tutorial introduction to the principles and procedures behind the BPO, and highlights some results from the testing: a numerical example of the estimation of the BPO, and a comparative verification of the BPO forecasts and the MOS forecasts. It concludes with a list of demonstrated attributes of the BPO (vis- à-vis the MOS): more parsimonious definitions of predictors, more efficient extraction of predictive information, better representation of the distribution function of predictand, and equal or better performance (in terms of calibration and informativeness).

Postgraduate training for trauma prevention, injury surveillance and research, Uganda.

PubMed

Bachani, Abdulgafoor M; Paichadze, Nino; Bentley, Jacob A; Tumwesigye, Nazarius Mbona; Bishai, David; Atuyambe, Lynn; Wegener, Stephen; Guwatudde, David; Kobusingye, Olive C; Hyder, Adnan A

2018-06-01

The burden of trauma and injuries in Uganda is substantial and growing. Two important gaps that need addressing are the shortage of trained people and a lack of national data on noncommunicable diseases and their risk factors in Uganda. We developed and implemented a new track within an existing master of public health programme, aimed at developing graduate-level capacity and promoting research on key national priorities for trauma and injuries. We also offered training opportunities to a wider audience and set up a high-level national injury forum to foster national dialogue on addressing the burden of trauma, injuries and disability. The Chronic Consequences of Trauma, Injuries and Disability in Uganda programme was implemented in 2012 at Makerere University School of Public Health in Kampala, Uganda, in conjunction with Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, United States of America. Over the years 2012 to 2017 we supported four cohorts of master's students, with a total of 14 students (9 females and 5 males; mean age 30 years). Over 1300 individuals participated in workshops and seminars of the short-term training component of the programme. The forum hosted three research symposia and two national injury forums. Institutional support and collaborative engagement is important for developing and implementing successful capacity development programmes. Integration of training components within existing academic structures is key to sustainability. Appropriate mentorship for highly motivated and talented students is valuable for guiding students through the programme.

Literature research of the Nutrition Improvement Programme for Rural Compulsory Education Students in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Fan; Hu, Xiaoqi; Tian, Zuyin; Zhang, Qian; Ma, Guansheng

2015-04-01

To describe the Nutrition Improvement Programme for Rural Compulsory Education Students (NIPRCES) in China and to share the experiences of developing and implementing nationwide school meal programmes with other countries. The article is based on a literature review of technical documents and reports of NIPRCES and relevant national legislation, technical reports and studies on school nutrition, minutes of meetings and national conferences, and official documents of the National Office of Student Nutrition and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. People's Republic of China. Published papers, national policies, legislation and unpublished official documents. A total of 23 million rural compulsory education students were covered by NIPRCES. In the development and implementation process of NIPRCES, fifteen ministries and national committees were involved and an efficient collaborative mechanism was established. All NIPRCES-covered schools were required to serve meals on a daily basis. By the end of June 2012, the proportions of students choosing 'school feeding', 'food package' and 'family feeding' modes were respectively 64.0 %, 32.0 % and 4.0 %. The central government subsidized school meals annually by more than $US 2.5 billion and invested $US 4.8 billion on school kitchens to support this programme. The NIPRCES is a significant movement of governmental nutritional intervention in China. Food safety, financial security, decentralization and other potential concerns should be considered and lessons can be learned from other countries. Further relevant research and a nationwide monitoring and evaluation programme are needed.

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case. Jonathan; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Kabuchanga, Eric; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Limaye, Ashutosh S.

2014-01-01

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

Optimization modeling of U.S. renewable electricity deployment using local input variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernstein, Adam

For the past five years, state Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) laws have been a primary driver of renewable electricity (RE) deployments in the United States. However, four key trends currently developing: (i) lower natural gas prices, (ii) slower growth in electricity demand, (iii) challenges of system balancing intermittent RE within the U.S. transmission regions, and (iv) fewer economical sites for RE development, may limit the efficacy of RPS laws over the remainder of the current RPS statutes' lifetime. An outsized proportion of U.S. RE build occurs in a small number of favorable locations, increasing the effects of these variables on marginal RE capacity additions. A state-by-state analysis is necessary to study the U.S. electric sector and to generate technology specific generation forecasts. We used LP optimization modeling similar to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Renewable Energy Development System (ReEDS) to forecast RE deployment across the 8 U.S. states with the largest electricity load, and found state-level RE projections to Year 2031 significantly lower than thoseimplied in the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2013 Annual Energy Outlook forecast. Additionally, the majority of states do not achieve their RPS targets in our forecast. Combined with the tendency of prior research and RE forecasts to focus on larger national and global scale models, we posit that further bottom-up state and local analysis is needed for more accurate policy assessment, forecasting, and ongoing revision of variables as parameter values evolve through time. Current optimization software eliminates much of the need for algorithm coding and programming, allowing for rapid model construction and updating across many customized state and local RE parameters. Further, our results can be tested against the empirical outcomes that will be observed over the coming years, and the forecast deviation from the actuals can be attributed to discrete parameter variances.

National HPV immunisation programme: knowledge and acceptance of mothers attending an obstetrics clinic at a teaching hospital, Kuala Lumpur.

PubMed

Ezat, Sharifa Wan Puteh; Hod, Rozita; Mustafa, Jamsiah; Mohd Dali, Ahmad Zailani Hatta; Sulaiman, Aqmar Suraya; Azman, Azlin

2013-01-01

Introduction of the HPV vaccine is a forefront primary prevention method in reducing the incidence of carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer. The Malaysia government has implemented the National HPV immunisation programme since 2010, supplying HPV vaccine free to targeted 13 year olds. This study aimed to explore the level of knowledge among mothers on cervical cancer, HPV, HPV vaccine and National HPV (NHPV) immunisation programme since its' implementation. It also assessed acceptance of mothers towards HPV vaccine being administered to their daughter, son or themselves. A cross sectional study was conducted on 155 respondents using self-administered questionnaires; conducted in December 2012 at the Obstetrics and Gynaecology Clinic in a teaching hospital in Kuala Lumpur. Respondents were selected using a multistage sampling technique. A response rate of 100% was obtained. Overall, 51.0% of mothers had good knowledge, with 55% having good knowledge of cervical cancer, 54.2% for both HPV and the National HPV immunisation programme and 51.0% for the HPV vaccine. Regression analyses showed that ethnicity was associated with knowledge on cervical cancer (p=0.003) while education was associated with knowledge on HPV (p=0.049). Three factors are associated with knowledge of the National HPV immunisation programme; ethnicity (p=0.017), mothers' education (p=0.0005) and number of children (p=0.020). The acceptance of HPV vaccine to be administered among daughter was the highest at 87.1%, followed by for mothers themselves at 73.5%, and the least is for sons 62.6%. This study found that the overall level of knowledge was moderate. Adequate information on cervical cancer, HPV, HPV vaccination and the National HPV immunisation programme should be provided to mothers in order to increase acceptance of the HPV vaccine which can reduce the disease burden in the future.

Analysis Grid for Environments Linked to Obesity (ANGELO) framework to develop community-driven health programmes in an Indigenous community in Canada.

PubMed

Willows, Noreen; Dyck Fehderau, David; Raine, Kim D

2016-09-01

Indigenous First Nations people in Canada have high chronic disease morbidity resulting in part from enduring social inequities and colonialism. Obesity prevention strategies developed by and for First Nations people are crucial to improving the health status of this group. The research objective was to develop community-relevant strategies to address childhood obesity in a First Nations community. Strategies were derived from an action-based workshop based on the Analysis Grid for Environments Linked to Obesity (ANGELO) framework. Thirteen community members with wide-ranging community representation took part in the workshop. They combined personal knowledge and experience with community-specific and national research to dissect the broad array of environmental factors that influenced childhood obesity in their community. They then developed community-specific action plans focusing on healthy eating and physical activity for children and their families. Actions included increasing awareness of children's health issues among the local population and community leadership, promoting nutrition and physical activity at school, and improving recreation opportunities. Strengthening children's connection to their culture was considered paramount to improving their well-being; thus, workshop participants developed programmes that included elders as teachers and reinforced families' acquaintance with First Nations foods and activities. The research demonstrated that the ANGELO framework is a participatory way to develop community-driven health programmes. It also demonstrated that First Nations people involved in the creation of solutions to health issues in their communities may focus on decolonising approaches such as strengthening their connection to indigenous culture and traditions. External funds were not available to implement programmes and there was no formal follow-up to determine if community members implemented programmes. Future research needs to examine the extent to which community members can implement programmes on their own and whether community action plans, when implemented, lead to short- and long-term benefits in health outcomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Leadership and governance of community health worker programmes at scale: a cross case analysis of provincial implementation in South Africa.

PubMed

Schneider, Helen; Nxumalo, Nonhlanhla

2017-09-15

National community health worker (CHW) programmes are returning to favour as an integral part of primary health care systems, often on the back of pre-existing community based initiatives. There are significant challenges to the integration and support of such programmes, and they require coordination and stewardship at all levels of the health system. This paper explores the leadership and governance tasks of large-scale CHW programmes at sub-national level, through the case of national reforms to South Africa's community based sector, referred to as the Ward Based Outreach Team (WBOT) strategy. A cross case analysis of leadership and governance roles, drawing on three case studies of adoption and implementation of the WBOTs strategy at provincial level (Western Cape, North West and Gauteng) was conducted. The primary case studies mapped system components and assessed implementation processes and contexts. They involved teams of researchers and over 200 interviews with stakeholders from senior to frontline, document reviews and analyses of routine data. The secondary, cross case analysis specifically focused on the issues and challenges facing, and strategies adopted by provincial and district policy makers and managers, as they engaged with the new national mandate. From this key sub-national leadership and governance roles were formulated. Four key roles are identified and discussed: 1. Negotiating a fit between national mandates and provincial and district histories and strategies of community based services 2. Defining new organisational and accountability relationships between CHWs, local health services, communities and NGOs 3. Revising and developing new aligned and integrated planning, human resource, financing and information systems 4. Leading change by building new collective visions, mobilising political, including budgetary, support and designing implementation strategies. This analysis, from real-life systems, adds to understanding of the processes involved in developing CHW programmes at scale, and specifically the negotiated and multilevel nature of leadership and governance in such programmes, spanning analytic, managerial, technical and political roles.

Towards a National Hydrological Forecasting system for Canada : Lessons Learned from the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortin, V.; Durnford, D.; Gaborit, E.; Davison, B.; Dimitrijevic, M.; Matte, P.

2016-12-01

Environment and Climate Change Canada has recently deployed a water cycle prediction system for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River. The model domain includes both the Canadian and US portions of the watershed. It provides 84-h forecasts of weather elements, lake level, lake ice cover and surface currents based on two-way coupling of the GEM numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with the NEMO ocean model. Streamflow of all the major tributaries of the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River are estimated by the WATROUTE routing model, which routes the surface runoff forecasted by GEM's land-surface scheme and assimilates streamflow observations where available. Streamflow forecasts are updated twice daily and are disseminated through an OGC compliant web map service (WMS) and a web feature service (WFS). In this presentation, in addition to describing the system and documenting its forecast skill, we show how it is being used by clients for various environmental prediction applications. We then discuss the importance of two-way coupling, land-surface and hillslope modelling and the impact of horizontal resolution on hydrological prediction skill. In the second portion of the talk, we discuss plans for implementing a similar system at the national scale, using what we have learned in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence watershed. Early results obtained for the headwaters of the Saskatchewan River as well as for the whole Nelson-Churchill watershed are presented.

Improvement of Storm Forecasts Using Gridded Bayesian Linear Regression for Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Schwartz, C. S.

2017-12-01

Bayesian linear regression (BLR) is a post-processing technique in which regression coefficients are derived and used to correct raw forecasts based on pairs of observation-model values. This study presents the development and application of a gridded Bayesian linear regression (GBLR) as a new post-processing technique to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) of rain and wind storm forecasts over northeast United States. Ten controlled variables produced from ten ensemble members of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) real-time prediction system are used for a GBLR model. In the GBLR framework, leave-one-storm-out cross-validation is utilized to study the performances of the post-processing technique in a database composed of 92 storms. To estimate the regression coefficients of the GBLR, optimization procedures that minimize the systematic and random error of predicted atmospheric variables (wind speed, precipitation, etc.) are implemented for the modeled-observed pairs of training storms. The regression coefficients calculated for meteorological stations of the National Weather Service are interpolated back to the model domain. An analysis of forecast improvements based on error reductions during the storms will demonstrate the value of GBLR approach. This presentation will also illustrate how the variances are optimized for the training partition in GBLR and discuss the verification strategy for grid points where no observations are available. The new post-processing technique is successful in improving wind speed and precipitation storm forecasts using past event-based data and has the potential to be implemented in real-time.

Development and application of an atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting model driven by TIGGE ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Hongjun; Zhao, Linna

2012-02-01

A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecasting model, driven by The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data, has been developed for flood forecasting over the Huaihe River. The incorporation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) information into flood forecasting systems may increase forecast lead time from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP model forecast from a single forecast center, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and leads to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble NWP systems through TIGGE offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Xinanjiang model used for hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling and the one-dimensional unsteady flow model applied to channel flood routing are coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office (UKMO), and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The developed ensemble flood forecasting model is applied to flood forecasting of the 2007 flood season as a test case. The test case is chosen over the upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station with flood diversion and retarding areas. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The Muskingum method is used for flood routing in the flood diversion area. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. The results demonstrate satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to a few days in advance, and show that TIGGE ensemble forecast data are a promising tool for forecasting of flood inundation, comparable with that driven by raingauge observations.

Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

2014-05-01

Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to potentially affected groups, and how mitigation strategies can be taken in response. This paper presents an outline of the protocol that was developed in the DEWFORA project, outlining the complementary roles of science, policy and societal uptake in effective drought forecasting and warning. A consensus on the need to emphasise the social component of early warning was reached when testing the DEWFORA early warning system protocol among experts from 18 countries.

GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, David; Nyenhuis, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin; Pappenberger, Florian

2013-04-01

"Understanding the Earth system — its weather, climate, oceans, atmosphere, water, land, geodynamics, natural resources, ecosystems, and natural and human-induced hazards — is crucial to enhancing human health, safety and welfare, alleviating human suffering including poverty, protecting the global environment, reducing disaster losses, and achieving sustainable development. Observations of the Earth system constitute critical input for advancing this understanding." With this in mind, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) started implementing the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOWOW, short for "GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water", is supporting this objective. GEOWOW's main challenge is to improve Earth observation data discovery, accessibility and exploitability, and to evolve GEOSS in terms of interoperability, standardization and functionality. One of the main goals behind the GEOWOW project is to demonstrate the value of the TIGGE archive in interdisciplinary applications, providing a vast amount of useful and easily accessible information to the users through the GEO Common Infrastructure (GCI). GEOWOW aims at developing funcionalities that will allow easy discovery, access and use of TIGGE archive data and of in-situ observations, e.g. from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), to support applications such as river discharge forecasting.TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) is a key component of THORPEX: a World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2 week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. The TIGGE archive consists of ensemble weather forecast data from ten global NWP centres, starting from October 2006, which has been made available for scientific research. The TIGGE archive has been used to analyse hydro-meteorological forecasts of flooding in Europe as well as in China. In general the analysis has been favourable in terms of forecast skill and concluded that the use of a multi-model forecast is beneficial. Long term analysis of individual centres, such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), has been conducted in the past. However, no long term and large scale study has been performed so far with inclusion of different global numerical models. Here we present some initial results from such a study.

A hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system for real-time flood forecasting purposes in the Milano area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Romero, Romualdo; Homar, Victor; Mancini, Marco

2015-04-01

Analysis of forecasting strategies that can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Western Mediterranean region is one of the fundamental motivations of the European HyMeX programme. Here, we examine a set of hydro-meteorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed before the occurred flash-floods. Indeed, flood damages have exponentially increased in the area during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. The flood forecasting system tested in this work comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, in order to provide a hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS). Deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) have been provided by WRF model in a set of 48-hours experiments. HEPS has been generated by combining different physical parameterizations (i.e. cloud microphysics, moist convection and boundary-layer schemes) of the WRF model in order to better encompass the atmospheric processes leading to high precipitation amounts. We have been able to test the value of a probabilistic versus a deterministic framework when driving Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs). Results highlight (i) the benefits of using a high-resolution HEPS in conveying uncertainties for this complex orographic area and (ii) a better simulation of the most of extreme precipitation events, potentially enabling valuable probabilistic QDFs. Hence, the HEPS copes with the significant deficiencies found in the deterministic QPFs. These shortcomings would prevent to correctly forecast the location and timing of high precipitation rates and total amounts at the catchment scale, thus impacting heavily the deterministic QDFs. In contrast, early warnings would have been possible within a HEPS context for the Milano area, proving the suitability of such system for civil protection purposes.

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John

This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10more » - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.« less