Operational foreshock forecasting: Fifteen years after

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogata, Y.

2010-12-01

We are concerned with operational forecasting of the probability that events are foreshocks of a forthcoming earthquake that is significantly larger (mainshock). Specifically, we define foreshocks as the preshocks substantially smaller than the mainshock by a magnitude gap of 0.5 or larger. The probability gain of foreshock forecast is extremely high compare to long-term forecast by renewal processes or various alarm-based intermediate-term forecasts because of a large event’s low occurrence rate in a short period and a narrow target region. Thus, it is desired to establish operational foreshock probability forecasting as seismologists have done for aftershocks. When a series of earthquakes occurs in a region, we attempt to discriminate foreshocks from a swarm or mainshock-aftershock sequence. Namely, after real time identification of an earthquake cluster using methods such as the single-link algorithm, the probability is calculated by applying statistical features that discriminate foreshocks from other types of clusters, by considering the events' stronger proximity in time and space and tendency towards chronologically increasing magnitudes. These features were modeled for probability forecasting and the coefficients of the model were estimated in Ogata et al. (1996) for the JMA hypocenter data (M≧4, 1926-1993). Currently, fifteen years has passed since the publication of the above-stated work so that we are able to present the performance and validation of the forecasts (1994-2009) by using the same model. Taking isolated events into consideration, the probability of the first events in a potential cluster being a foreshock vary in a range between 0+% and 10+% depending on their locations. This conditional forecasting performs significantly better than the unconditional (average) foreshock probability of 3.7% throughout Japan region. Furthermore, when we have the additional events in a cluster, the forecast probabilities range more widely from nearly 0% to about 40% depending on the discrimination features among the events in the cluster. This conditional forecasting further performs significantly better than the unconditional foreshock probability of 7.3%, which is the average probability of the plural events in the earthquake clusters. Indeed, the frequency ratios of the actual foreshocks are consistent with the forecasted probabilities. Reference: Ogata, Y., Utsu, T. and Katsura, K. (1996). Statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters, Geophys. J. Int. 127, 17-30.

A change in fault-plane orientation between foreshocks and aftershocks of the Galway Lake earthquake, ML = 5.2, 1975, Mojave desert, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuis, G.S.; Lindh, A.G.

1979-01-01

A marked change is observed in P/SV amplitude ratios, measured at station TPC, from foreshocks to aftershocks of the Galway Lake earthquake. This change is interpreted to be the result of a change in fault-plane orientation occurring between foreshocks and aftershocks. The Galway Lake earthquake, ML= 5.2, occurred on June 1, 1975. The first-motion fault-plane solutions for the main shock and most foreshocks and aftershocks indicate chiefly right-lateral strike-slip on NNW-striking planes that dip steeply, 70-90??, to the WSW. The main event was preceded by nine located foreshocks, ranging in magnitude from 1.9 to 3.4, over a period of 12 weeks, starting on March 9, 1975. All of the foreshocks form a tight cluster approximately 1 km in diameter. This cluster includes the main shock. Aftershocks are distributed over a 6-km-long fault zone, but only those that occurred inside the foreshock cluster are used in this study. Seismograms recorded at TPC (?? = 61 km), PEC (?? = 93 km), and CSP (?? = 83 km) are the data used here. The seismograms recorded at TPC show very consistent P/SV amplitude ratios for foreshocks. For aftershocks the P/SV ratios are scattered, but generally quite different from foreshock ratios. Most of the scatter for the aftershocks is confined to the two days following the main shock. Thereafter, however, the P/SV ratios are consistently half as large as for foreshocks. More subtle (and questionable) changes in the P/SV ratios are observed at PEC and CSP. Using theoretical P/SV amplitude ratios, one can reproduce the observations at TPC, PEC and CSP by invoking a 5-12?? counterclockwise change in fault strike between foreshocks and aftershocks. This interpretation is not unique, but it fits the data better than invoking, for example, changes in dip or slip angle. First-motion data cannot resolve this small change, but they permit it. Attenuation changes would appear to be ruled out by the fact that changes in the amplitude ratios, PTPC/PPEC and ptpc/pcsp, are observed, and these changes accompany the changes in P/SV. Observations for the Galway Lake earthquake are similar to observations for the Oroville, California, earthquake (ML = 5.7) of August 1, 1975, and the Brianes Hills, California, earthquake (ML = 4.3) of January 8, 1977 (Lindh et al., Science Vol. 201, pp. 56-59). A change in fault-plane orientation between foreshocks and aftershocks may be understandable in terms of early en-echelon cracking (foreshocks) giving way to shear on the main fault plane (main shock plus aftershocks). Recent laboratory data (Byerlee et al., Tectonophysics, Vol. 44, pp. 161-171) tend to support this view. ?? 1979.

Foreshocks and Swarms of Induced Seismicity in Southern Kansas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, J. L.; Skoumal, R.; Dougherty, S. L.; Cochran, E. S.

2017-12-01

Protracted foreshock sequences and swarm-like behavior have been observed for a number of induced earthquakes, including Guy-Greenbrier, Raton Basin, Youngstown, and the Fairview sequences. Many other induced earthquake sequences have seen intermittent seismicity before the largest earthquake in the sequence. The prevalence of foreshocks and swarms as part of induced earthquake sequences likely reflects the ongoing increase in and expansion of fluid pressure in a region, such that higher magnitude events will occur once a large region has been sufficiently influenced by fluid injection. Diffusion of fluid pressure has been observed in some induced seismicity sequences whereby seismicity moves away from an injector, making the earlier events foreshocks. Natural seismicity in other parts of the central and eastern United States experience far fewer foreshock sequences. This is additional evidence that injection-caused increase in fluid pressure is the reason that these foreshocks and swarms are occurring. To better understand foreshocks and swarm-like behavior of induced seismicity, we examine the seismicity in southern Kansas from 2014-2017. The seismic network in southern Kansas represents the densest, longest-running (>3.5 years) network with publicly available data in near-real-time in an area of induced seismicity. This has yielded a magnitude of completeness of 2.0, which is lower than in most other areas of induced seismicity. We further enhance this catalog by using template matching. With this expanded catalog, we identify and examine foreshock and swarm behavior for all M3.5 and larger mainshocks in Kansas.

Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.

1994-01-01

The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.

On the persistence of unstable bump-on-tail electron velocity distributions in the earth's foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klimas, Alexander J.; Fitzenreiter, Richard J.

1988-01-01

This paper presents further evidence for the persistence of bump-on-tail unstable reduced velocity distributions in the earth's electron foreshock, which contradicts the understanding of quasi-linear saturation of the bump-on-tail instability. A modified theory for the saturation of the bump-on-tail instability in the earth's foreshock is proposed to explain the mechanism of this persistence, and the predictions are compared to the results of a numerical simulation of the electron plasma in the foreshock. The results support the thesis that quasi-linear saturation of the bump-on-tail instability is modified in the foreshock, due to the driven nature of the region, so that at saturation the stabilized velocity distribution still appears bump-on-tail unstable to linear plasma analysis.

Foreshock search over a long duration using a method of setting appropriate criteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyomoto, Y.; Kawakata, H.; Hirano, S.; Doi, I.

2016-12-01

Recently, small foreshocks have been detected using cross-correlation techniques (e.g., Bouchon et al., 2011) in which the foreshocks are identified when the cross-correlation coefficient (CC) exceeded a certain threshold. For some shallow intraplate earthquakes, foreshocks whose hypocenters were estimated to be adjacent to the main shock hypocenter were detected from several tens of minutes before the main shock occurrence (Doi and Kawakata, 2012; 2013). At least two problems remain in the cross-correlation techniques employed. First, previous studies on foreshocks used data whose durations are at most a month (Kato et al., 2013); this is insufficient to check if such events occurred only before the main shock occurrence or not. Second, CC is used for detection criteria without considering validity of the threshold. In this study, we search for foreshocks of an M 5.4 earthquake in central Nagano prefecture in Japan on June 30, 2011 with a vertical-component waveform at N.MWDH (Hi-net) station due to one of the cataloged foreshocks (M 1) as a template to calculate CC. We calculate CC between the template and continuous waveforms of the same component at the same station for two years before the main shock occurrence, and we try to overcome the problems mentioned above. We find that histogram of CC is well modeled with the normal distribution, which is similar to previous studies on tremors (e.g., Ohta and Ide, 2008). According to the model, the expected number of misdetection is less than 1 when CC > 0.63. Therefore, we regard that the waveform is due to a foreshock when CC > 0.63. As a result, foreshocks are detected only within thirteen hours immediately before the main shock occurrence for the two years. By setting an appropriate threshold, we conclude that foreshocks just before the main shock occurrence are not stationary events. Acknowledgments: We use continuous waveform records of NIED high sensitivity seismograph network in Japan (Hi-net) and the JMA unified hypocenter catalogs. This work is supported by MEXT of Japan, under its Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program.

Initiation process of the Mw 6.2 central Tottori, Japan, earthquake on October 21, 2016: Stress transfer due to its largest foreshock of Mw 4.1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noda, S.; Ellsworth, W. L.

2017-12-01

On October 21, 2016, a strike-slip earthquake with Mw 6.2 occurred in the central Tottori prefecture, Japan. It was preceded by a foreshock sequence that began with a Mw 4.1 event, the largest earthquake for the sequence, and lasted about two hours. According to the JMA catalog, the largest foreshock had a similar focal mechanism as the mainshock and was located in the immediate vicinity of the mainshock hypocenter. The goal of this study is to understand the relationship between the foreshock and the initial rupture of the mainshock. We first determine the relative hypocenter distance between the foreshock and mainshock using the P-wave onsets on Hi-net station records. The initiation points of the two events are likely about 100 m apart according to the current results, but could be closer. Within the location uncertainty, they might either be coplanar or on subparallel planes. Next, we obtain the slip-history models from a kinematic inversion method using empirical Green's functions derived from other foreshocks with M 2.2 - 2.4. The Mw 4.1 foreshock and Mw 6.2 mainshock started in a similar way until approximately 0.2 s after their onsets. For the foreshock, the rapid growth stage completed by 0.2 s even though the rupture propagation continued for 0.4 - 0.5 s longer (note that 0.2 s is significantly shorter than the typical source duration of a Mw 4.1 earthquake). On the other hand, the mainshock rupture continued to grow rapidly after 0.2 s. The comparison between the relative hypocenter locations and the slip models shows that the mainshock nucleated within the area strongly effected by both static and dynamic stress changes created by the foreshock. We also find that the mainshock initially propagated away from the foreshock hypocenter. We consider that the stress transfer process is a key to understand the mainshock nucleation as well as its rupture growth process.

Numerical Investigation of Earthquake Nucleation on a Laboratory-Scale Heterogeneous Fault with Rate-and-State Friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, N.; Lapusta, N.

2014-12-01

Many large earthquakes on natural faults are preceded by smaller events, often termed foreshocks, that occur close in time and space to the larger event that follows. Understanding the origin of such events is important for understanding earthquake physics. Unique laboratory experiments of earthquake nucleation in a meter-scale slab of granite (McLaskey and Kilgore, 2013; McLaskey et al., 2014) demonstrate that sample-scale nucleation processes are also accompanied by much smaller seismic events. One potential explanation for these foreshocks is that they occur on small asperities - or bumps - on the fault interface, which may also be the locations of smaller critical nucleation size. We explore this possibility through 3D numerical simulations of a heterogeneous 2D fault embedded in a homogeneous elastic half-space, in an attempt to qualitatively reproduce the laboratory observations of foreshocks. In our model, the simulated fault interface is governed by rate-and-state friction with laboratory-relevant frictional properties, fault loading, and fault size. To create favorable locations for foreshocks, the fault surface heterogeneity is represented as patches of increased normal stress, decreased characteristic slip distance L, or both. Our simulation results indicate that one can create a rate-and-state model of the experimental observations. Models with a combination of higher normal stress and lower L at the patches are closest to matching the laboratory observations of foreshocks in moment magnitude, source size, and stress drop. In particular, we find that, when the local compression is increased, foreshocks can occur on patches that are smaller than theoretical critical nucleation size estimates. The additional inclusion of lower L for these patches helps to keep stress drops within the range observed in experiments, and is compatible with the asperity model of foreshock sources, since one would expect more compressed spots to be smoother (and hence have lower L). In this heterogeneous rate-and-state fault model, the foreshocks interact with each other and with the overall nucleation process through their postseismic slip. The interplay amongst foreshocks, and between foreshocks and the larger-scale nucleation process, is a topic of our future work.

Rupture directivity and slip distribution of the M 4.3 foreshock to the 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mori, J.

1996-01-01

Details of the M 4.3 foreshock to the Joshua Tree earthquake were studied using P waves recorded on the Southern California Seismic Network and the Anza network. Deconvolution, using an M 2.4 event as an empirical Green's function, corrected for complicated path and site effects in the seismograms and produced simple far-field displacement pulses that were inverted for a slip distribution. Both possible fault planes, north-south and east-west, for the focal mechanism were tested by a least-squares inversion procedure with a range of rupture velocities. The results showed that the foreshock ruptured the north-south plane, similar to the mainshock. The foreshock initiated a few hundred meters south of the mainshock and ruptured to the north, toward the mainshock hypocenter. The mainshock (M 6.1) initiated near the northern edge of the foreshock rupture 2 hr later. The foreshock had a high stress drop (320 to 800 bars) and broke a small portion of the fault adjacent to the mainshock but was not able to immediately initiate the mainshock rupture.

Two types of foreshock activities observed on meter-scale laboratory faults: Slow-slip-driven and cascade-up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashita, F.; Fukuyama, E.; Xu, S.; Kawakata, H.; Mizoguchi, K.; Takizawa, S.

2017-12-01

We report two types of foreshock activities observed on meter-scale laboratory experiments: slow-slip-driven type and cascade-up type. We used two rectangular metagabbro blocks as experimental specimens, whose nominal contacting area was 1.5 m long and 0.1 m wide. To monitor stress changes and seismic activities on the fault, we installed dense arrays of 32 triaxial rosette strain gauges and 64 PZT seismic sensors along the fault. We repeatedly conducted experiments with the same pair of rock specimens, causing the evolution of damage on the fault. We focus on two experiments successively conducted under the same loading condition (normal stress of 6.7 MPa and loading rate of 0.01 mm/s) but different initial fault surface conditions; the first experiment preserved the gouge generated from the previous experiment while the second experiment started with all gouge removed. Note that the distribution of gouge was heterogeneous, because we did not make the gouge layer uniform. We observed many foreshocks in both experiments, but found that the b-value of foreshocks was smaller in the first experiment with pre-existing gouge (PEG). In the second experiment without PEG, we observed premonitory slow slip associated with nucleation process preceding most main events by the strain measurements. We also found that foreshocks were triggered by the slow slip at the end of the nucleation process. In the experiment with PEG, on the contrary, no clear premonitory slow slips were found. Instead, foreshock activity accelerated towards the main event, as confirmed by a decreasing b-value. Spatiotemporal distribution of foreshock hypocenters suggests that foreshocks migrated and cascaded up to the main event. We infer that heterogeneous gouge distribution caused stress-concentrated and unstable patches, which impeded stable slow slip but promoted foreshocks on the fault. Further, our results suggest that b-value is a useful parameter for characterizing these observations.

Strong Evidence for Stochastic Growth of Langmuir-Like Waves in Earth's Foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.

1999-01-01

Bursty Langmuir-like waves driven by electron beams in Earth's foreshock have properties which are inconsistent with the standard plasma physics paradigm of uniform exponential growth saturated by nonlinear processes. Here it is demonstrated for a specific period that stochastic growth theory (SGT) quantitatively describes these waves throughout a large fraction of the foreshock. The statistical wave properties are inconsistent with nonlinear processes or self-organized criticality being important. SGT's success in explaining the foreshock waves and type III solar bursts suggests that SGT is widely applicable to wave growth in space, astrophysical, and laboratory plasmas.

A study of the solar wind deceleration in the Earth's foreshock region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, T.-L.; Schwingenschuh, K.; Russell, C. T.

1995-01-01

Previous observations have shown that the solar wind is decelerated and deflected in the earth's upstream region populated by long-period waves. This deceleration is corelated with the 'diffuse' but not with the 'reflected' ion population. The speed of the solar wind may decrease tens of km/s in the foreshock region. The solar wind dynamic pressure exerted on the magnetopause may vary due to the fluctuation of the solar wind speed and density in the foreshock region. In this study, we examine this solar wind deceleration and determine how the solar wind deceleration varies in the foreshock region.

Comparing Foreshock Characteristics and Foreshock Forecasting in Observed and Simulated Earthquake Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogata, Y.

2014-12-01

In our previous papers (Ogata et al., 1995, 1996, 2012; GJI), we characterized foreshock activity in Japan, and then presented a model that forecasts the probability that one or more earthquakes form a foreshock sequence; then we tested prospectively foreshock probabilities in the JMA catalog. In this talk, I compare the empirical results with results for synthetic catalogs in order to clarify whether or not these results are consistent with the description of the seismicity by a superposition of background activity and epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS models). This question is important, because it is still controversially discussed whether the nucleation process of large earthquakes is driven by seismically cascading (ETAS-type) or by aseismic accelerating processes. To explore the foreshock characteristics, I firstly applied the same clustering algorithms to real and synthetic catalogs and analyzed the temporal, spatial and magnitude distributions of the selected foreshocks, to find significant differences particularly in the temporal acceleration and magnitude dependence. Finally, I calculated forecast scores based on a single-link cluster algorithm which could be appropriate for real-time applications. I find that the JMA catalog yields higher scores than all synthetic catalogs and that the ETAS models having the same magnitude sequence as the original catalog performs significantly better (more close to the reality) than ETAS-models with randomly picked magnitudes.

Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, P.A.

1999-01-01

Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

MESSENGER Observations of ULF Waves in Mercury's Foreshock Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, Guan; Chi, Peter J.; Bardsen, Scott; Blanco-Cano, Xochitl; Slavin, James A.; Korth, Haje

2012-01-01

The region upstream from a planetary bow shock is a natural plasma laboratory containing a variety of wave particle phenomena. The study of foreshocks other than the Earth s is important for extending our understanding of collisionless shocks and foreshock physics since the bow shock strength varies with heliocentric distance from the Sun, and the sizes of the bow shocks are different at different planets. The Mercury s bow shock is unique in our solar system as it is produced by low Mach number solar wind blowing over a small magnetized body with a predominately radial interplanetary magnetic field. Previous observations of Mercury upstream ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves came exclusively from two Mercury flybys of Mariner 10. The MESSENGER orbiter data enable us to study of upstream waves in the Mercury s foreshock in depth. This paper reports an overview of upstream ULF waves in the Mercury s foreshock using high-time resolution magnetic field data, 20 samples per second, from the MESSENGER spacecraft. The most common foreshock waves have frequencies near 2 Hz, with properties similar to the 1-Hz waves in the Earth s foreshock. They are present in both the flyby data and in every orbit of the orbital data we have surveyed. The most common wave phenomenon in the Earth s foreshock is the large-amplitude 30-s waves, but similar waves at Mercury have frequencies at 0.1 Hz and occur only sporadically with short durations (a few wave cycles). Superposed on the "30-s" waves, there are spectral peaks at 0.6 Hz, not reported previously in Mariner 10 data. We will discuss wave properties and their occurrence characteristics in this paper.

ULF waves in the foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenstadt, E. W.; Le, G.; Strangeway, R. J.

1995-01-01

We review our current knowledge of ULF waves in planetary foreshocks. Most of this knowledge comes from observations taken within a few Earth radii of the terrestrial bow shock. Terrestrial foreshock ULF waves can be divided into three types, large amplitude low frequency waves (approximately 30-s period), upstream propagating whistlers (1-Hz waves), and 3-s waves. The 30-s waves are apparently generated by back-streaming ion beams, while the 1-Hz waves are generated at the bow shock. The source of the 3-s waves has yet to be determined. In addition to issues concerning the source of ULF waves in the foreshock, the waves present a number of challenges, both in terms of data acquisition, and comparison with theory. The various waves have different coherence scales, from approximately 100 km to approximately 1 Earth radius. Thus multi-spacecraft separation strategies must be tailored to the phenomenon of interest. From a theoretical point of view, the ULF waves are observed in a plasma in which the thermal pressure is comparable to the magnetic pressure, and the rest-frame wave frequency can be moderate fraction of the proton gyro-frequency. This requires the use of kinetic plasma wave dispersion relations, rather than multi-fluid MHD. Lastly, and perhaps most significantly, ULF waves are used to probe the ambient plasma, with inferences being drawn concerning the types of energetic ion distributions within the foreshock. However, since most of the data were acquired close to the bow shock, the properties of the more distant foreshock have to be deduced mainly through extrapolation of the near-shock results. A general understanding of the wave and plasma populations within the foreshock, their interrelation, and evolution, requires additional data from the more distant foreshock.

Electron plasma oscillations in the Venus foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, G. K.; Strangeway, R. J.; Russell, C. T.

1990-01-01

Plasma waves are observed in the solar wind upstream of the Venus bow shock by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter. These wave signatures occur during periods when the interplanetary magnetic field through the spacecraft position intersects the bow shock, thereby placing the spacecraft in the foreshock region. The electron foreshock boundary is clearly evident in the data as a sharp onset in wave activity and a peak in intensity. Wave intensity is seen to drop rapidly with increasing penetration into the foreshock. The peak wave electric field strength at the electron foreshock boundary is found to be similar to terrestrial observations. A normalized wave spectrum was constructed using measurements of the electron plasma frequency and the spectrum was found to be centered about this value. These results, along with polarization studies showing the wave electric field to be field aligned, are consistent with the interpretation of the waves as electron plasma oscillations.

FORESHOCK AND ATERSHOCK SEQUENCES OF SOME LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN THE REGION OF GREECE,

DTIC Science & Technology

or more foreshocks of magnitude larger than 3.8 occurred in forty per cent of the cases. The probability for an earthquake to be preceded by a large... foreshock not much smaller than the main shock is 10%. It is shown that some properties of the earth’s material in the aftershock region can be

Four Point Measurements of the Foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibeck, D. G.; Omidi, N.; Angelopoulos, V.

2008-01-01

Hybrid code numerical simulations accurately predict the properties of the Earth's foreshock, a region populated by solar wind particles heated and reflected by their interaction with the bow shock. The thermal pressures associated with the reflected population suffice to substantially modify the oncoming solar wind, substantially reducing densities, velocities, and magnetic field strengths, but enhance temperatures. Enhanced thermal pressures cause the foreshock to expand at the expense of the ambient solar wind, creating a boundary that extends approx.10 RE upstream which is marked by enhanced densities and magnetic field strengths, and flows deflected away from the foreshock. We present a case study of Cluster plasma and magnetic field observations of this boundary.

Strong foreshock signal preceding the L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake (M_w~6.3) of 6~April~2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, G. A.; Charalampakis, M.; Fokaefs, A.; Minadakis, G.

2010-01-01

We used the earthquake catalogue of INGV extending from 1 January 2006 to 30 June 2009 to detect significant changes before and after the 6 April 2009 L'Aquila mainshock (Mw=6.3) in the seismicity rate, r (events/day), and in b-value. The statistical z-test and Utsu-test were applied to identify significant changes. From the beginning of 2006 up to the end of October 2008 the activity was relatively stable and remained in the state of background seismicity (r=1.14, b=1.09). From 28 October 2008 up to 26 March 2009, r increased significantly to 2.52 indicating weak foreshock sequence; the b-value did not changed significantly. The weak foreshock sequence was spatially distributed within the entire seismogenic area. In the last 10 days before the mainshock, strong foreshock signal became evident in space (dense epicenter concentration in the hanging-wall of the Paganica fault), in time (drastic increase of r to 21.70 events/day) and in size (b-value dropped significantly to 0.68). The significantly high seismicity rate and the low b-value in the entire foreshock sequence make a substantial difference from the background seismicity. Also, the b-value of the strong foreshock stage (last 10 days before mainshock) was significantly lower than that in the aftershock sequence. Our results indicate the important value of the foreshock sequences for the prediction of the mainshock.

Self-organizing Large-scale Structures in Earth's Foreshock Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganse, U.; Pfau-Kempf, Y.; Turc, L.; Hoilijoki, S.; von Alfthan, S.; Vainio, R. O.; Palmroth, M.

2017-12-01

Earth's foreshock is populated by plasma waves in the ULF regime, assumed to be caused by wave instabilities of shock-reflected particle beams. While in-situ observation of these waves has provided plentiful data of their amplitudes, frequencies, obliquities and relation to local plasma conditions, global-scale structures are hard to grasp from observation data alone. The hybrid-Vlasov simulation system Vlasiator, designed for kinetic modeling of the Earth's magnetosphere, has been employed to study foreshock formation under radial and near-radial IMF conditions on global scales. Structures arising in the foreshock can be comprehensively studied and directly compared to observation results. Our modeling results show that foreshock waves present emergent large-scale structures, in which regions of waves with similar phase exist. At the interfaces of these regions ("spines") we observe high wave obliquity, higher beam densities and lower beam velocities than inside them. We characterize these apparently self-organizing structures through the interplay between wave- and beam properties and present the microphysical mechanisms involved in their creation.

On the upstream boundary of electron foreshocks in the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zimbardo, G.; Veltri, P.

1995-01-01

The upstream boundary of electron foreshocks is defined as the path of the fastest electrons reflected by collisionless shocks and moving along the magnetic field in the solar wind. Considerable levels of magnetic fluctuations are found in these regions of the solar wind, and their effect is to create both a broadening and a fine structure of the electron foreshock boundary. The magnetic structure is studied by means of a 3-D numerical simulation of a turbulent magnetic field. Enhanced, anomalous diffusion is found, (Delta x(exp 2)) varies as s(sup alpha), where alpha is greater than 1 for typical values of the parameters (here, Delta x(exp 2) is the mean square width of the tangent magnetic surface and s is the field line length). This corresponds to a Levy flight regime for the magnetic field line random walk, and allows very efficient electron propagation perpendicular to the magnetic field. Implications on the observations of planetary foreshocks and of the termination shock foreshock are considered.

A statistical study of atypical wave modes in the Earth's foreshock region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, W.; Shue, J.; Lee, B.

2010-12-01

The Earth's foreshock, the region upstream the Earth’s bow shock, is filled with back-streaming particles and ultra-low frequency waves. Three different wave modes have been identified in the region, including 30-sec waves, 3-sec waves, and shocklets. Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS), a satellite mission that consists of five probes, provides multiple measuements of the Earth’s foreshock region. The method of Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) includes the procedures of empirical mode decomposition and instantaneous frequency calculation. In this study, we use HHT to decompose intrinsic wave modes and perform a wave analysis of chaotic magnetic fields in the Earth's foreshock region. We find that some individual atypical wave modes other than 30-sec and 3-sec appear in the region. In this presentation, we will show the statistical characteristics, such as wave frequency, wave amplitude, and wave polarization of the atypical intrinsic wave modes, with respect to different locations in the foreshock region and to different solar wind conditions.

Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

PubMed

McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

2005-03-24

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

ULF waves in the Martian foreshock: MAVEN observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Lican; Mazelle, Christian; Meziane, Karim; Ruhunusiri, Suranga; Espley, Jared; Halekas, Jasper; Connerney, Jack; McFadden, Jim; Mitchell, Dave; Larson, Davin; Brain, Dave; Jakosky, Bruce; Ge, Yasong; Du, Aimin

2016-04-01

Foreshock ULF waves constitute a significant physical phenomenon of the plasma environment for terrestrial planets. The occurrence of these ULF waves, associated with backstreaming ions reflected and accelerated at the bow shock, implies specific conditions and properties of the shock and its foreshock. Using measurements from MAVEN, we report clear observations of this type of ULF waves in the Martian foreshock. We show from different case studies that the peak frequency of the wave case in spacecraft frame is too far from the local ion cyclotron frequency to be associated with local pickup ions taking into account the Doppler shifted frequency from a cyclotron resonance, the obliquity of the mode, resonance broadening and experimental uncertainties. On the opposite their properties fit very well with foreshock waves driven unstable by backtreaming field-aligned ion beams. The propagation angle is usually less than 30 degrees from ambient magnetic field. The waves also display elliptical and left-hand polarizations with respect to interplanetary magnetic field in the spacecraft frame. It is clear for these cases that foreshock ions are simultaneous present for the ULF wave interval. Such observation is important in order to discriminate with the already well-reported pickup ion (protons) waves associated with exospheric hydrogen in order to quantitatively use the later to study seasonal variations of the hydrogen corona.

Rupture distribution of the 1977 western Argentina earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langer, C.J.; Hartzell, S.

1996-01-01

Teleseismic P and SH body waves are used in a finite-fault, waveform inversion for the rupture history of the 23 November 1977 western Argentina earthquake. This double event consists of a smaller foreshock (M0 = 5.3 ?? 1026 dyn-cm) followed about 20 s later by a larger main shock (M0 = 1.5 ?? 1027 dyn-cm). Our analysis indicates that these two events occurred on different fault segments: with the foreshock having a strike, dip, and average rake of 345??, 45??E, and 50??, and the main shock 10??, 45??E, and 80??, respectively. The foreshock initiated at a depth of 17 km and propagated updip and to the north. The main shock initiated at the southern end of the foreshock zone at a depth of 25 to 30 km, and propagated updip and unilaterally to the south. The north-south separation of the centroids of the moment release for the foreshock and main shock is about 60 km. The apparent triggering of the main shock by the foreshock is similar to other earthquakes that have involved the failure of multiple fault segments, such as the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake. Such occurrences argue against the use of individual, mapped, surface fault or fault-segment lengths in the determination of the size and frequency of future earthquakes.

FORESHOCKS AND TIME-DEPENDENT EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.

1985-01-01

The probability that an earthquake in southern California (M greater than equivalent to 3. 0) will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km (i. e. , will be a foreshock) is 6 plus or minus 0. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ), and is not significantly dependent on the magnitude of the possible foreshock between M equals 3 and M equals 5. The probability that an earthquake will be followed by an M greater than equivalent to 5. 0 main shock, however, increases with magnitude of the foreshock from less than 1 per cent at M greater than equivalent to 3 to 6. 5 plus or minus 2. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ) at M greater than equivalent to 5. The main shock will most likely occur in the first hour after the foreshock, and the probability that a main shock will occur in the first hour decreases with elapsed time from the occurrence of the possible foreshock by approximately the inverse of time. Thus, the occurrence of an earthquake of M greater than equivalent to 3. 0 in southern California increases the earthquake hazard within a small space-time window several orders of magnitude above the normal background level.

VLF waves in the foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangeway, R. J.; Crawford, G. K.

1995-01-01

Plasma waves observed in the VLF range upstream of planetary bow shocks not only modify the particle distributions, but also provide important information about the acceleration processes that occur at the bow shock. Electron plasma oscillations observed near the tangent field line in the electron foreshock are generated by electrons reflected at the bow shock through a process that has been referred to as Fast Fermi acceleration. Fast Fermi acceleration is the same as shock-drift acceleration, which is one of the mechanisms by which ions are energized at the shock. We have generated maps of the VLF emissions upstream of the Venus bow shock, using these maps to infer properties of the shock energization processes. We find that the plasma oscillations extend along the field line up to a distance that appears to be controlled by the shock scale size, implying that shock curvature restricsts the flux and energy of reflected electrons. We also find that the ion acoustic waves are observed in the ion foreshock, but at Venus these emissions are not detected near the ULF forshock boundary. Through analogy with terrestrial ion observations, this implies that the ion acoustic waves are not generated by ion beams, but are instead generated by diffuse ion distributions found deep within the ion foreshock. However, since the shock is much smaller at Venus, and there is no magnetosphere, we might expect ion distributions within the ion foreshock to be different than at the Earth. Mapping studies of the terrestrial foreshock similar to those carried out at Venus appear to be necessary to determine if the inferences drawn from Venus data are applicable to other foreshocks.

Simulation studies of plasma waves in the electron foreshock - The generation of Langmuir waves by a gentle bump-on-tail electron distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dum, C. T.

1990-01-01

Particle simulation experiments were used to study the basic physical ingredients needed for building a global model of foreshock wave phenomena. In particular, the generation of Langmuir waves by a gentle bump-on-tail electron distribution is analyzed. It is shown that, with appropriately designed simulations experiments, quasi-linear theory can be quantitatively verified for parameters corresponding to the electron foreshock.

Foreshocks and Aftershocks Detected from Stick-slip Events on a 3 m Biaxial Apparatus and their Relationship to Quasistatic Nucleation and Wear Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.; Mclaskey, G.

2017-12-01

We investigate foreshocks and aftershocks of dynamic stick-slip events generated on a newly constructed 3 m biaxial friction apparatus at Cornell University (attached figure). In a typical experiment, two rectangular granite blocks are squeezed together under 4 or 7 MPa of normal pressure ( 4 or 7 million N on a 1 m2 fault surface), and then shear stress is increased until the fault slips 10 - 400 microns in a dynamic rupture event similar to a M -2 to M -3 earthquake. Some ruptures nucleate near the north end of the fault, where the shear force is applied, other ruptures nucleate 2 m from the north end of the fault. The samples are instrumented with 16 piezoelectric sensors, 16 eddy current sensors, and 8 strain gage rosettes, evenly placed along the fault to measure vertical ground motion, local slip, and local stress, respectively. We studied sequences of tens of slip events and identified a total of 194 foreshocks and 66 aftershocks located within 6 s time windows around the stick-slip events and analyzed their timing and locations relative to the quasistatic nucleation process. We found that the locations of the foreshocks and aftershocks were distributed all along the length of the fault, with the majority located at the ends of the fault where local normal and shear stress is highest (caused by both edge effects and the finite stiffness of the steel frame surrounding the granite blocks). We also opened the laboratory fault and inspected the fault surface and found increased wear at the sample ends. To explore the foreshocks' and aftershocks' relationship to the nucleation and afterslip, we compared the occurrence of foreshocks to the local slip rate on the laboratory fault closest to each foreshock in space and time. We found that that majority of foreshocks were generated from local slip rates between 1 and 100 microns/s, though we were not able to resolve slip rate lower than about 1 micron/s. Our experiments provide insight into how foreshocks and aftershocks in natural earthquakes may be influenced both by fault structure and slow slip associated with nucleation or afterslip.

MESSENGER Magnetic Field Observations of Upstream Ultra-Low Frequency Waves at Mercury

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, G.; Chi, P. J.; Boardsen, S.; Blanco-Cano, X.; Anderosn, B. J.; Korth, H.

2012-01-01

The region upstream from a planetary bow shock is a natural plasma laboratory containing a variety of wave particle phenomena. The study of foreshocks other than the Earth's is important for extending our understanding of collisionless shocks and foreshock physics since the bow shock strength varies with heliocentric distance from the Sun, and the sizes of the bow shocks are different at different planets. The Mercury's bow shock is unique in our solar system as it is produced by low Mach number solar wind blowing over a small magnetized body with a predominately radial interplanetary magnetic field. Previous observations of Mercury upstream ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves came exclusively from two Mercury flybys of Mariner 10. The MESSENGER orbiter data enable us to study of upstream waves in the Mercury's foreshock in depth. This paper reports an overview of upstream ULF waves in the Mercury's foreshock using high-time resolution magnetic field data, 20 samples per second, from the MESSENGER spacecraft. The most common foreshock waves have frequencies near 2 Hz, with properties similar to the I-Hz waves in the Earth's foreshock. They are present in both the flyby data and in every orbit of the orbital data we have surveyed. The most common wave phenomenon in the Earth's foreshock is the large-amplitude 30-s waves, but similar waves at Mercury have frequencies at near 0.1 Hz and occur only sporadically with short durations (a few wave cycles). Superposed on the "30-s" waves, there are spectral peaks at near 0.6 Hz, not reported previously in Mariner 10 data. We will discuss wave properties and their occurrence characteristics in this paper.

Effects of Nonconvective Electric Fields on Magnetospheric Plasma Dynamics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-31

I.S.E.E. data (June, 1981 issue J. Geophys. Res.) has made a large contribution toward describing the structure of the foreshock region just upstream from...narrow layer on the most sunward region of the foreshock [Bonifazi and Moreno, 1981a,b] and form the distribution which is classified as "reflected...the foreshock region toughes the quasi perpendicular bow shock [Eastman et. al., 1981]. Therefore, ions reflected at this point may run along the

Don't go with the Flow: An Invitation to Magnetosheath and Foreshock Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibeck, D. G.

2010-01-01

This talk reviews the predictions of gasdynamic, magnetohydrodynamic, and kinetic models for the magnetosheath and foreshock and compares these predictions with observations by the recent Cluster and THEMIS missions. Topics of interest include: the depletion layer, dawn/dusk asymmetries, the transmission of solar wind discontinuities, the formation of hot flow anomalies and cavities in the foreshock, and flows accelerated by field-line tension. We conclude by discussing opportunities for magnetosheath imaging.

The Role of Hydromagnetic Waves in the Magnetosphere and the Ionosphere

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-31

of right-hand-polarized waves in instabilities, we follow the examples discussed by Wong interplanetary shocks and in the terrestrial foreshock and... foreshock , (Received January 14, 1988;J. Geophys. Res., 90, 1429, 1985. Spangler, S.R., and J.P. Sheerin, Alfv6.n wave revised April 15, 1988;collapse...bow shocks,2 and in the interplanetary shocks and the a four-wave parametric coupling process is a.alyzed for the terrestrial foreshock .3 .4 Moreover

Relativistic Electrons Produced by Foreshock Disturbances Observed Upstream of Earth's Bow Shock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, L. B., III; Sibeck, D. G.; Turner, D. L.; Osmane, A.; Caprioli, D.; Angelopoulos, V.

2016-01-01

Charged particles can be reflected and accelerated by strong (i.e., high Mach number) astrophysical collisionless shock waves, streaming away to form a foreshock region in communication with the shock. Foreshocks are primarily populated by suprathermal ions that can generate foreshock disturbances-largescale (i.e., tens to thousands of thermal ion Larmor radii), transient (approximately 5-10 per day) structures. They have recently been found to accelerate ions to energies of several keV. Although electrons in Saturn's high Mach number (M > 40) bow shock can be accelerated to relativistic energies (nearly 1000 keV), it has hitherto been thought impossible to accelerate electrons beyond a few tens of keV at Earth's low Mach number (1 =M <20) bow shock. Here we report observations of electrons energized by foreshock disturbances to energies up to at least approximately 300 keV. Although such energetic electrons have been previously observed, their presence has been attributed to escaping magnetospheric particles or solar events. These relativistic electrons are not associated with any solar or magnetospheric activity. Further, due to their relatively small Larmor radii (compared to magnetic gradient scale lengths) and large thermal speeds (compared to shock speeds), no known shock acceleration mechanism can energize thermal electrons up to relativistic energies. The discovery of relativistic electrons associated with foreshock structures commonly generated in astrophysical shocks could provide a new paradigm for electron injections and acceleration in collisionless plasmas.

Foreshock ULF wave boundary at Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, L.; Mazelle, C. X.; Meziane, K.; Romanelli, N. J.; Ge, Y.; Du, A.; Zhang, T.

2017-12-01

Foreshock ULF waves are a significant physical phenomenon on the plasma environment for terrestrial planets. The occurrence of ULF waves, associated with backstreaming ions and accelerated at shocks, implies the conditions and properties of the shock and its foreshock. The location of ultra-low frequency (ULF) quasi-monochromatic wave onset upstream of Venus bow shock is explored using Venus Express magnetic field data. We report the existence of a spatial foreshock boundary behind which ULF waves are present. We have found that the ULF wave boundary is sensitive to the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) direction and appears well defined for a cone angle larger than 30o. In the Venusian foreshock, the slope of the wave boundary with respect to the Sun-Venus direction increase with IMF cone angle. We also found that for the IMF nominal direction at Venus' orbit, the boundary makes an inclination of 70o. Moreover, we have found that the inferred velocity of an ion traveling along the ULF boundary is in a qualitative agreement with a quasi-adiabatic reflection of a portion of the solar wind at the bow shock.

Understanding of Particle Acceleration by Foreshock Transients (invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, T. Z.; Angelopoulos, V.; Hietala, H.; Lu, S.; Wilson, L. B., III

2017-12-01

Although plasma shocks are known to be a major particle accelerator at Earth's environment (e.g., the bow shock) and elsewhere in the universe, how particles are accelerated to very large energies compared to the shock potential is still not fully understood. Significant new information on such acceleration in the vicinity of Earth's bow shock has recently emerged due to the availability of multi-point observations, in particular from Cluster and THEMIS. These have revealed numerous types of foreshock transients, formed by shock-reflected ions, which could play a crucial role in particle pre-acceleration, i.e. before the particles reach the shock to be subjected again to even further acceleration. Foreshock bubbles (FBs) and hot flow anomalies (HFAs), are a subset of such foreshock transients that are especially important due to their large spatial scale (1-10 Earth radii), and their ability to have global effects at Earth.s geospace. These transients can accelerate particles that can become a particle source for the parent shock. Here we introduce our latest progress in understanding particle acceleration by foreshock transients including their statistical characteristics and acceleration mechanisms.

Understanding of Particle Acceleration by Foreshock Transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, T. Z.; Angelopoulos, V.; Hietala, H.; Lu, S.; Wilson, L. B., III

2017-12-01

Although plasma shocks are known to be a major particle accelerator at Earth's environment (e.g., the bow shock) and elsewhere in the universe, how particles are accelerated to very large energies compared to the shock potential is still not fully understood. Significant new information on such acceleration in the vicinity of Earth's bow shock has recently emerged due to the availability of multi-point observations, in particular from Cluster and THEMIS. These have revealed numerous types of foreshock transients, formed by shock-reflected ions, which could play a crucial role in particle pre-acceleration, i.e. before the particles reach the shock to be subjected again to even further acceleration. Foreshock bubbles (FBs) and hot flow anomalies (HFAs), are a subset of such foreshock transients that are especially important due to their large spatial scale (1-10 Earth radii), and their ability to have global effects at Earth's geospace. These transients can accelerate particles that can become a particle source for the parent shock. Here we introduce our latest progress in understanding particle acceleration by foreshock transients including their statistical characteristics and acceleration mechanisms.

Stress rotations due to the M6.5 foreshock and M7.3 main shock in the 2016 Kumamoto, SW Japan, earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Keisuke; Hasegawa, Akira; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Asano, Youichi; Tanaka, Sachiko; Sawazaki, Kaoru; Urata, Yumi; Fukuyama, Eiichi

2016-10-01

A shallow M7.3 event with a M6.5 foreshock occurred along the Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone in Kyushu, SW Japan. We investigated the spatiotemporal variation of the stress orientations in and around the source area of this 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence by inverting 1218 focal mechanisms. The results show that the σ3 axis in the vicinity of the fault plane significantly rotated counterclockwise after the M6.5 foreshock and rotated clockwise after the M7.3 main shock in the Hinagu fault segment. This observation indicates that a significant portion of the shear stress was released both by the M6.5 foreshock and M7.3 main shock. It is estimated that the stress release by the M6.5 foreshock occurred in the shallower part of the Hinagu fault segment, which brought the stress concentration in its deeper part. This might have caused the M7.3 main shock rupture mainly along the deeper part of the Hinagu fault segment after 28 h.

Short Wavelength Electrostatic Waves in the Earth’s Magnetosheath.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-07-01

to an antenna effect. Emissions likely to be ion-acoustic mode waves have been found up- stream of the bow shock ( foreshock ) in the solar wind...particles apparently reflected at the bow shock and associated with ion- acoustic mode waves in the Earth’s foreshock are also observed [Eastman et al...Res., 86, A 4493-4510, 1981. Eastman, T.E., 1.R. Anderson, L.A. Frank, and G.K. Parks, Upstream particles observed in the Earth’s foreshock region

Research in Seismology

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-03-31

detailed analysis of the data is made in an attempt to reach more definitive conclusion on that matter. Analysis of Data The largest foreshock (OT-II:22...represented with a trapezoid of unit area defined with three time segments (2.5, 1.0, 2.5 seconds). The same pattern is seen in the foreshock as shown in...parameters were taken to be the same as in the case of the aftershock. In the previous report it was pointed out that foreshock shows a secondary arrival

First Identification of Foreshock Plasma Populations at Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glass, A. N.; Tracy, P. J.; Raines, J. M.

2018-05-01

Observations of foreshock populations at Mercury are presented for the first time utilizing measurements from the Fast Imaging Plasma Spectrometer (FIPS) aboard MESSENGER, and plausible energization mechanisms are suggested and evaluated.

Relativistic Electrons Produced by Foreshock Disturbances Observed Upstream of Earth's Bow Shock.

PubMed

Wilson, L B; Sibeck, D G; Turner, D L; Osmane, A; Caprioli, D; Angelopoulos, V

2016-11-18

Charged particles can be reflected and accelerated by strong (i.e., high Mach number) astrophysical collisionless shock waves, streaming away to form a foreshock region in communication with the shock. Foreshocks are primarily populated by suprathermal ions that can generate foreshock disturbances-large-scale (i.e., tens to thousands of thermal ion Larmor radii), transient (∼5-10  per day) structures. They have recently been found to accelerate ions to energies of several keV. Although electrons in Saturn's high Mach number (M>40) bow shock can be accelerated to relativistic energies (nearly 1000 keV), it has hitherto been thought impossible to accelerate electrons beyond a few tens of keV at Earth's low Mach number (1≤M<20) bow shock. Here we report observations of electrons energized by foreshock disturbances to energies up to at least ∼300  keV. Although such energetic electrons have been previously observed, their presence has been attributed to escaping magnetospheric particles or solar events. These relativistic electrons are not associated with any solar or magnetospheric activity. Further, due to their relatively small Larmor radii (compared to magnetic gradient scale lengths) and large thermal speeds (compared to shock speeds), no known shock acceleration mechanism can energize thermal electrons up to relativistic energies. The discovery of relativistic electrons associated with foreshock structures commonly generated in astrophysical shocks could provide a new paradigm for electron injections and acceleration in collisionless plasmas.

Dynamics of delayed triggering in multi-segmented foreshock sequence: Evidence from the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arai, H.; Ando, R.; Aoki, Y.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence hit the SW Japan, from April 14th to 16th and its sequence includes two M6-class foreshocks and the main shock (Mw 7.0). Importantly, the detailed surface displacement caused solely by the two foreshocks could be captured by a SAR observation isolated from the mainshock deformation. The foreshocks ruptured the previously mapped Hinagu fault and their hypocentral locations and the aftershock distribution indicates the involvement of two different subparallel faults. Therefore we assumed that the 1st and the 2nd foreshocks respectively ruptured each of the subparallel faults (faults A and B). One of the interesting points of this earthquake is that the two major foreshocks had a temporal gap of 2.5 hours even though the fault A and B are quite close by each other. This suggests that the stress perturbation due to the 1st foreshock is not large enough to trigger the 2nd one right away but that it's large enough to bring about the following earthquake after a delay time.We aim to reproduce the foreshock sequence such as rupture jumping over the subparallel faults by using dynamic rupture simulations. We employed a spatiotemporal-boundary integral equation method accelerated by the Fast Domain Partitioning Method (Ando, 2016, GJI) since this method allows us to construct a complex fault geometry in 3D media. Our model has two faults and a free ground surface. We conducted rupture simulation with various sets of parameters to identify the optimal condition describing the observation.Our simulation results are roughly categorized into 3 cases with regard to the criticality for the rupture jumping. The case 1 (supercritical case) shows the fault A and B ruptured consecutively without any temporal gap. In the case 2 (nearly critical), the rupture on the fault B started with a temporal gap after the fault A finished rupturing, which is what we expected as a reproduction. In the case 3 (subcritical), only the fault A ruptured and its rupture did not transfer to the fault B. We succeed in reproducing rupture jumping over two faults with a temporal gap due to the nucleation by taking account of a velocity strengthening (direct) effect. With a detailed analysis of the case 2, we can constrain ranges of parameters strictly, and this gives us deeper insights into the physics underlying the delayed foreshock activity.

Foreshock Langmuir waves for unusually constant solar wind conditions: Data and implications for foreshock structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.; Anderson, Roger R.; Strangeway, R. J.

1997-10-01

Plasma wave data are compared with ISEE 1's position in the electron foreshock for an interval with unusually constant (but otherwise typical) solar wind magnetic field and plasma characteristics. For this period, temporal variations in the wave characteristics can be confidently separated from sweeping of the spatially varying foreshock back and forth across the spacecraft. The spacecraft's location, particularly the coordinate Df downstream from the foreshock boundary (often termed DIFF), is calculated by using three shock models and the observed solar wind magnetometer and plasma data. Scatterplots of the wave field versus Df are used to constrain viable shock models, to investigate the observed scatter in the wave fields at constant Df, and to test the theoretical predictions of linear instability theory. The scatterplots confirm the abrupt onset of the foreshock waves near the upstream boundary, the narrow width in Df of the region with high fields, and the relatively slow falloff of the fields at large Df, as seen in earlier studies, but with much smaller statistical scatter. The plots also show an offset of the high-field region from the foreshock boundary. It is shown that an adaptive, time-varying shock model with no free parameters, determined by the observed solar wind data and published shock crossings, is viable but that two alternative models are not. Foreshock wave studies can therefore remotely constrain the bow shock's location. The observed scatter in wave field at constant Df is shown to be real and to correspond to real temporal variations, not to unresolved changes in Df. By comparing the wave data with a linear instability theory based on a published model for the electron beam it is found that the theory can account qualitatively and semiquantitatively for the abrupt onset of the waves near Df=0, for the narrow width and offset of the high-field region, and for the decrease in wave intensity with increasing Df. Quantitative differences between observations and theory remain, including large overprediction of the wave fields and the slower than predicted falloff at large Df of the wave fields. These differences, as well as the unresolved issue of the electron beam speed in the high-field region of the foreshock, are discussed. The intrinsic temporal variability of the wave fields, as well as their overprediction based on homogeneous plasma theory, are indicative of stochastic growth physics, which causes wave growth to be random and varying in sign, rather than secular.

Determination of Focal Depths of Earthquakes in the Mid-Oceanic Ridges from Amplitude Spectra of Surface Waves

DTIC Science & Technology

1969-06-01

Foreshock , mainshock and aftershock of the Parkfield, California earthquake of June 28, 1966. b. The Denver earthquake of August 9, 1967. Let us look...into the results of these tests in more details. (1) Test on the main shock, foreshock and aftershock of the Parkfield earthquake of June 28, 1966...According to McEvilly et. al. (1967), the origin times and locations of.these events were the following: Foreshock June 28, 1966, 04:08:56.2 GMT; 350 57.6

Plasma Waves Associated with Energetic Particles Streaming into the Solar Wind from the Earth’s Bow Shock.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-08

when the magnetic field changed in such a way that the ISEE spacecraft were brought into the ion foreshock region. The lower panels of Figures 1 and 2...electrons in the absence of ions usually occurs when the spacecraft is downstream from the electron foreshock boundary but upstream of the ion... foreshock boundary. Two well-defined upstream ion events occur in the following hour as shown in Figure 5. The top panel shows that a moderately intense ion

VLF emissions in the Venus foreshock - Comparison with terrestrial observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, G. K.; Strangeway, R. J.; Russell, C. T.

1993-01-01

An examination is conducted of ELF/VLF emissions observed in the solar wind upstream of the Venus shock, for the 100 Hz-30 kHz range, using data from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter's electric field detector and magnetometer instruments. Detailed comparisons are made with terrestrial measurements for both the electron and ion foreshocks. The results obtained support the Crawford et al. (1990) identification of the Venus electron foreshock emissions as electron plasma oscillations, whose waves are generated in situ and act to isotropize the electron distributions.

Seismic amplitude measurements suggest foreshocks have different focal mechanisms than aftershocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindh, A.; Fuis, G.; Mantis, C.

1978-01-01

The ratio of the amplitudes of P and S waves from the foreshocks and aftershocks to three recent California earthquakes show a characteristic change at the time of the main events. As this ratio is extremely sensitive to small changes in the orientation of the fault plane, a small systematic change in stress or fault configuration in the source region may be inferred. These results suggest an approach to the recognition of foreshocks based on simple measurements of the amplitudes of seismic waves. Copyright ?? 1978 AAAS.

Foreshock triggering of the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique, Chile, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Matthew W.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Benz, Harley M.

2016-08-01

On April 1st, 2014, a Mw 8.2 (U.S. Geological Survey moment magnitude) earthquake occurred in the subduction zone offshore northern Chile. In the two weeks leading up to the earthquake, a sequence of foreshocks, starting with a Mw 6.7 earthquake on March 16th and including three more Mw 6.0+ events, occurred predominantly south of the April 1st mainshock epicenter and up-dip of the area of significant slip during the mainshock. Using earthquake locations and source parameters derived in a previous study (Hayes et al., 2014) and a Coulomb failure stress change analysis of these events, we assess in detail the hypothesis that the earthquakes occurred as a cascading sequence, each event successively triggering the next, ultimately triggering the rupture of the mainshock. Following the initial Mw 6.7 event, each of the three largest foreshocks (Mw 6.4, 6.2 and 6.3), as well as the hypocenter of the mainshock, occurred in a region of positive Coulomb stress change produced by the preceding events, indicating these events were brought closer to failure by the prior seismicity. In addition, we reexamine the possibility that aseismic slip occurred and what role it may have played in loading the plate boundary. Using horizontal GPS displacements from along the northern Chile coast prior to the mainshock, we find that the foreshock seismicity alone likely does not account for the observed signals. We perform a grid search for the location and magnitude of an aseismic slip patch that can account for the difference between observed signals and foreshock-related displacement, and find that a slow slip region with slip corresponding to a Mw ∼ 6.8 earthquake located coincident with or up-dip of the foreshock seismicity can best explain this discrepancy. Additionally, such a slow slip region positively loads the mainshock hypocentral area, enhancing the positive loading produced by the foreshock seismicity.

Imaging and Understanding Foreshock and Aftershock Behavior Around the 2014 Iquique, Northern Chile, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Newman, A. V.; Hu, S.; Williamson, A.

2014-12-01

On April 1st, 2014, a moment magnitude (MW) 8.2 earthquake occurred offshore Iquique, Northern Chile. There were numerous smaller earthquakes preceding and following the mainshock, making it an ideal case to study the spatio-temporal relation among these events and their association with the mainshock. We applied a matched-filter technique to detect previously missing foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 Iquique earthquake. Using more than 900 template events recorded by 19 broadband seismic stations (network code CX) operated by the GEOFON Program of GFZ Potsdam, we found 4392 earthquakes between March 1st and April 3rd, 2014, including more than 30 earthquakes with magnitude larger than 4 that were previously missed in the catalog from the Chile National Seismological Center. Additionally, we found numerous small earthquakes with magnitudes between 1 and 2 preceding the largest foreshock, an MW 6.7 event occurring on March 16th, approximately 2 weeks before the Iquique mainshock. We observed that the foreshocks migrated northward at a speed of approximately 6 km/day. Using a finite fault slip model of the mainshock determined from teleseismic waveform inversion (Hayes, 2014), we calculated the Coulomb stress changes in the nearby regions of the mainshock. We found that there was ~200% increase in seismicity in the areas with increased Coulomb stress. Our next step is to evaluate the Coulomb stress changes associated with earlier foreshocks and their roles in triggering later foreshocks, and possibly the mainshock. For this, we plan to create a fault model of the temporal evolution of the Coulomb behavior along the interface with time, assuming Wells and Coppersmith (1994) type fault parameters. These results will be compared with double-difference relocations (using HypoDD), presenting a more accurate understanding of the spatial-temporal evolution of foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

Earthquake Predictability: Results From Aggregating Seismicity Data And Assessment Of Theoretical Individual Cases Via Synthetic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamaki, A.; Roberts, R.

2016-12-01

For many years an important aim in seismological studies has been forecasting the occurrence of large earthquakes. Despite some well-established statistical behavior of earthquake sequences, expressed by e.g. the Omori law for aftershock sequences and the Gutenburg-Richter distribution of event magnitudes, purely statistical approaches to short-term earthquake prediction have in general not been successful. It seems that better understanding of the processes leading to critical stress build-up prior to larger events is necessary to identify useful precursory activity, if this exists, and statistical analyses are an important tool in this context. There has been considerable debate on the usefulness or otherwise of foreshock studies for short-term earthquake prediction. We investigate generic patterns of foreshock activity using aggregated data and by studying not only strong but also moderate magnitude events. Aggregating empirical local seismicity time series prior to larger events observed in and around Greece reveals a statistically significant increasing rate of seismicity over 20 days prior to M>3.5 earthquakes. This increase cannot be explained by tempo-spatial clustering models such as ETAS, implying genuine changes in the mechanical situation just prior to larger events and thus the possible existence of useful precursory information. Because of tempo-spatial clustering, including aftershocks to foreshocks, even if such generic behavior exists it does not necessarily follow that foreshocks have the potential to provide useful precursory information for individual larger events. Using synthetic catalogs produced based on different clustering models and different presumed system sensitivities we are now investigating to what extent the apparently established generic foreshock rate acceleration may or may not imply that the foreshocks have potential in the context of routine forecasting of larger events. Preliminary results suggest that this is the case, but that it is likely that physically-based models of foreshock clustering will be a necessary, but not necessarily sufficient, basis for successful forecasting.

Spatio-temporal variations of stress drop in and around the asperity of the Mw 6.1, 6 April 2009 L'Aquila earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calderoni, G.

2015-12-01

We investigate the variability of Brune stress drop in the normal fault system activated by the Mw 6.1 L'Aquila earthquake in the complex tectonic setting of the central Apennine. We re-analyze the dataset used by Calderoni et al. [2013], augmented by additional earthquakes and additional records at closer distance stations. We refine the EGF method used by Calderoni et al. [2013] applying more restrictive criteria in the selection of the EGF events and removing outliers based on statistical criteria. We focus on spatio-temporal variations in the Paganica fault before the mainshock. Using 51 earthquakes (9 foreshocks, the mainshock, and 42 aftershocks), we show that, after the Mw 4.1 largest foreshock of 30 March 2009, the Brune stress drop goes down to the lowest values (0.4 MPa). This largest foreshock was indicated as a marker for the onset of the temporal variations in efficiency of fault-zone guided waves (Calderoni et al., 2015) and other independent seismic parameters such as the b value [Papadopoulos et al., 2010; Sugan et al., 2014], and the P-to-S wave velocity ratio [Di Luccio et al., 2010; Lucente et al., 2010]. The low values of stress drop after the Mw 4.1 foreshock are consistent with the increase of pore pressure invoked by other authors to explain the increase of the Vp/Vs ratio and the decrease of Vs in the damage fault zone. In contrast, immediate foreshocks occurring a few hours before the mainshock very close to its nucleation are characterized by the highest values observed for foreshocks (≈5 MPa). These high stress drop foreshocks are located in the fault patch where a low b value anomaly indicates highly stressed rock before the main shock rupture [Sugan et al., 2014]. These results provide further evidence to previous observations before major earthquakes suggesting that stress drop variations can provide insight into the preparatory phase of impending earthquakes.

Foreshock and magnetosheath transients, origin and connection to the magnetopause.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanco-Cano, X.

2014-12-01

The solar wind interaction with earths's magnetosphere begins well ahead of the magnetopause when the solar wind encounters the foreshock, bow shock and magnetosheath. In these regions a variety of waves and magnetic structures exist and modify the solar wind. The foreshock is permeated by a variety of ultra low frequency (ULF) waves and magnetic transient structures such as shocklets, SLAMs, and cavitons. These structures are very compressive and are generated by the solar wind interaction with backstreaming particles plus non linear processes. Other structures such as hot flow anomalies (HFA), and spontaneous hot flow anomalies (SHFA) can also exist in the foreshock. HFAs are generated by discontinuities that arrive to the bow shock. Recent studies show that SHFA have the same profiles as HFA, but form by the interaction of foreshock cavitons with the bowshock. Foreshock bubbles can form when energetic ions upstream of the quasi-parallel bow shock interact with rotational discontinuities in the solar wind. All these structures can merge with the bow shock and be convected into the magnetosheath. The magnetosheath is both a place for rich plasma physical processes and a filter between solar wind and the magnetospheric plasma and magnetic field environments. It is permeated by the superposition of upstream convected structures plus locally generated waves (ion cyclotron and mirror mode). Recent studies have shown that jets and magnetosheath filamentary structures (MFS) can be observed downstream from the bow shock. Jets are associated to shock rippling efects and MFS to acceleration of particles at and near the shock. Due to the presence of the foreshock, bow shock and magnetosheath transients, the solar wind arriving to the magnetopause is very different to the pristine solar wind. In this talk we will address the main characteristics of these transients, discuss their origin, and how they can modify the solar wind, the bow shock, the magnetosheath and the magnetopause.

Spatial organization of foreshocks as a tool to forecast large earthquakes.

PubMed

Lippiello, E; Marzocchi, W; de Arcangelis, L; Godano, C

2012-01-01

An increase in the number of smaller magnitude events, retrospectively named foreshocks, is often observed before large earthquakes. We show that the linear density probability of earthquakes occurring before and after small or intermediate mainshocks displays a symmetrical behavior, indicating that the size of the area fractured during the mainshock is encoded in the foreshock spatial organization. This observation can be used to discriminate spatial clustering due to foreshocks from the one induced by aftershocks and is implemented in an alarm-based model to forecast m > 6 earthquakes. A retrospective study of the last 19 years Southern California catalog shows that the daily occurrence probability presents isolated peaks closely located in time and space to the epicenters of five of the six m > 6 earthquakes. We find daily probabilities as high as 25% (in cells of size 0.04 × 0.04deg(2)), with significant probability gains with respect to standard models.

Variations in plasma wave intensity with distance along the electron foreshock boundary at Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crawford, G. K.; Strangeway, R. J.; Russell, C. T.

1991-01-01

Plasma waves are observed in the solar wind upstream of the Venus bow shock by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter. These wave signatures occur during periods when the interplanetary magnetic field through the spacecraft position intersects the bow shock, thereby placing the spacecraft in the foreshock region. Wave intensity is analyzed as a function of distance along the electron foreshock boundary. It is found that the peak wave intensity may increase along the foreshock boundary from the tangent point to a maximum value at several Venus radii, then decrease in intensity with subsequent increase in distance. These observations could be associated with the instability process: the instability of the distribution function increasing with distance from the tangent point to saturation at the peak. Thermalization of the beam for distances beyond this point could reduce the distribution function instability resulting in weaker wave signatures.

Elsaesser variable analysis of fluctuations in the ion foreshock and undisturbed solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labelle, James; Treumann, Rudolf A.; Marsch, Eckart

1994-01-01

Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) fluctuations in the solar wind have been investigated previously by use of Elsaesser variables. In this paper, we present a comparison of the spectra of Elsaesser variables in the undisturbed solar wind at 1 AU and in the ion foreshock in front of the Earth. Both observations take place under relatively strong solar wind flow speed conditions (approximately equal 600 km/s). In the undisturbed solar wind we find that outward propagating Alfven waves dominate, as reported by other observers. In the ion foreshock the situation is more complex, with neither outward nor inward propagation dominating over the entire range investigated (1-10 mHz). Measurements of the Poynting vectors associated with the fluctuations are consistent with the Elsaesser variable analysis. These results generally support interpretations of the Elsaesser variables which have been made based strictly on solar wind data and provide additional insight into the nature of the ion foreshock turbulence.

Spatial organization of foreshocks as a tool to forecast large earthquakes

PubMed Central

Lippiello, E.; Marzocchi, W.; de Arcangelis, L.; Godano, C.

2012-01-01

An increase in the number of smaller magnitude events, retrospectively named foreshocks, is often observed before large earthquakes. We show that the linear density probability of earthquakes occurring before and after small or intermediate mainshocks displays a symmetrical behavior, indicating that the size of the area fractured during the mainshock is encoded in the foreshock spatial organization. This observation can be used to discriminate spatial clustering due to foreshocks from the one induced by aftershocks and is implemented in an alarm-based model to forecast m > 6 earthquakes. A retrospective study of the last 19 years Southern California catalog shows that the daily occurrence probability presents isolated peaks closely located in time and space to the epicenters of five of the six m > 6 earthquakes. We find daily probabilities as high as 25% (in cells of size 0.04 × 0.04deg2), with significant probability gains with respect to standard models. PMID:23152938

Observations of static Coulomb stress triggering of the November 2011 M5.7 Oklahoma earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sumy, Danielle F.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Keranen, Katie M.; Wei, Maya; Abers, Geoffrey A.

2014-01-01

In November 2011, a M5.0 earthquake occurred less than a day before a M5.7 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma, which may have promoted failure of the mainshock and thousands of aftershocks along the Wilzetta fault, including a M5.0 aftershock. The M5.0 foreshock occurred in close proximity to active fluid injection wells; fluid injection can cause a buildup of pore fluid pressure, decrease the fault strength, and may induce earthquakes. Keranen et al. [2013] links the M5.0 foreshock with fluid injection, but the relationship between the foreshock and successive events has not been investigated. Here we examine the role of coseismic Coulomb stress transfer on earthquakes that follow the M5.0 foreshock, including the M5.7 mainshock. We resolve the static Coulomb stress change onto the focal mechanism nodal plane that is most consistent with the rupture geometry of the three M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, as well as specified receiver fault planes that reflect the regional stress orientation. We find that Coulomb stress is increased, e.g., fault failure is promoted, on the nodal planes of ~60% of the events that have focal mechanism solutions, and more specifically, that the M5.0 foreshock promoted failure on the rupture plane of the M5.7 mainshock. We test our results over a range of effective coefficient of friction values. Hence, we argue that the M5.0 foreshock, induced by fluid injection, potentially triggered a cascading failure of earthquakes along the complex Wilzetta fault system.

Gradual unlocking of a plate boundary controlled the April 2014 M8.1 Iquique, Northern Chile megathrust earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurr, B.; Hainzl, S.; Bedford, J. R.; Hoechner, A.; Wang, R.; Zhang, Y.; Oncken, O.; Palo, M.; Bartsch, M.; Moreno, M.; Tilmann, F. J.; Dahm, T.; Victor, P.; Barrientos, S. E.; Vilotte, J. P.

2014-12-01

On April 1st, 2014, Northern Chile, was struck by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake near the city of Iquique following a protracted series of foreshocks. The earthquake occurred within a seismic gap left behind by two great earthquakes devastating the northern Chilean and southern Peruvian coast about 140 years ago in 1868 and 1877. This segment, about 500 km long, was the only one along the Chilean subduction zone that has not ruptured within the last century. The Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) monitored the entire sequence of events, providing unprecedented resolution of the build-up to the main event and its rupture evolution. We analyzed the entire seismicity in this section of the subduction zone since 2007. The offshore rupture region of the Iquique event has been more or less continuously seismically active within our observation period. This is in contrast to the segments to the north and south, which are still unruptured and seismically quiet. Starting in July 2013, three foreshock clusters with increasingly larger magnitudes occurred within the future rupture area. The largest Mw 6.7 foreshock, two weeks before the mainshock, had a source mechanism distinctively different from the mainshock and with a centroid depth of only 9 km probably occurred in the upper plate. The Iquique mainshock initiated then at the northern end of the foreshock zone, inside a region of intermediate interseismic locking. Comparing the foreshock distribution to the long term deformation history of the margin, we find that the area exhibits a high gradient of locking from weakly locked updip to fully locked downdip. Mapping the b-value of the foreshocks indicates significantly lower b-values in the source area compared to all other regions where the b-value can be resolved. Importantly, a gradual drop of the b-value from about 0.75 to below 0.6 is observed in the source region within the three years before the Iquique earthquake. This has only been reversed within the last days of the foreshock sequence. We conclude that gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap accentuated by the foreshock activity in a zone of intermediate seismic coupling was instrumental in causing final failure.

Foreshock Langmuir Waves for Unusually Constant Solar Wind Conditions: Data and Implications for Foreshock Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.; Anderson, Roger R.; Strangeway, R. J.

1997-01-01

Plasma wave data are compared with ISEE 1's position in the electron foreshock for an interval with unusually constant (but otherwise typical) solar wind magnetic field and plasma characteristics. For this period, temporal variations in the wave characteristics can be confidently separated from sweeping of the spatially varying foreshock back and forth across the spacecraft. The spacecraft's location, particularly the coordinate D(sub f) downstream from the foreshock boundary (often termed DIFF), is calculated by using three shock models and the observed solar wind magnetometer and plasma data. Scatterplots of the wave field versus D(sub f) are used to constrain viable shock models, to investigate the observed scatter in the wave fields at constant D(sub f), and to test the theoretical predictions of linear instability theory. The scatterplots confirm the abrupt onset of the foreshock waves near the upstream boundary, the narrow width in D(sub f) of the region with high fields, and the relatively slow falloff of the fields at large D(sub f), as seen in earlier studies, but with much smaller statistical scatter. The plots also show an offset of the high-field region from the foreshock boundary. It is shown that an adaptive, time-varying shock model with no free parameters, determined by the observed solar wind data and published shock crossings, is viable but that two alternative models are not. Foreshock wave studies can therefore remotely constrain the bow shock's location. The observed scatter in wave field at constant D(sub f) is shown to be real and to correspond to real temporal variations, not to unresolved changes in D(sub f). By comparing the wave data with a linear instability theory based on a published model for the electron beam it is found that the theory can account qualitatively and semiquantitatively for the abrupt onset of the waves near D(sub f) = 0, for the narrow width and offset of the high-field region, and for the decrease in wave intensity with increasing D(sub f). Quantitative differences between observations and theory remain, including large overprediction of the wave fields and the slower than predicted falloff at large D(sub f) of the wave fields. These differences, as well as the unresolved issue of the electron beam speed in the high-field region of the foreshock, are discussed. The intrinsic temporal variability of the wave fields, as well as their overprediction based on homogeneous plasma theory, are indicative of stochastic growth physics, which causes wave growth to be random and varying in sign, rather than secular.

Foreshocks and delayed triggering of the 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa earthquake and dynamic reinvigoration of its aftershock sequence by the MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren-Smith, Emily; Fry, Bill; Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Chamberlain, Calum J.

2018-01-01

We analyze the preparatory period of the September 2016 MW7.1 Te Araroa foreshock-mainshock sequence in the Northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand, and subsequent reinvigoration of Te Araroa aftershocks driven by a large distant earthquake (the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake). By adopting a matched-filter detection workflow using 582 well-defined template events, we generate an improved foreshock and aftershock catalog for the Te Araroa sequence (>8,000 earthquakes over 66 d). Templates characteristic of the MW7.1 sequence (including the mainshock template) detect several highly correlating events (ML2.5-3.5) starting 12 min after a MW5.7 foreshock. These pre-cursory events occurred within ∼1 km of the mainshock and migrate bilaterally, suggesting precursory slip was triggered by the foreshock on the MW7.1 fault patch prior to mainshock failure. We extend our matched-filter routine to examine the interactions between high dynamic stresses resulting from passing surface waves of the November 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, and the evolution of the Te Araroa aftershock sequence. We observe a sudden spike in moment release of the aftershock sequence immediately following peak dynamic Coulomb stresses of 50-150 kPa on the MW7.1 fault plane. The triggered increase in moment release culminated in a MW5.1 event, immediately followed by a ∼3 h temporal stress shadow. Our observations document the preparatory period of a major subduction margin earthquake following a significant foreshock, and quantify dynamic reinvigoration of a distant on-going major aftershock sequence amid a period of temporal clustering of seismic activity in New Zealand.

The electron foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitzenreiter, R. J.

1995-01-01

An overview of the observations of backstreaming electrons in the foreshock and the mechanisms that have been proposed to explain their properties will be presented. A primary characteristic of observed foreshock electrons is that their velocity distributions are spatially structured in a systematic way depending on distance from the magnetic field line which is tangent to the shock. There are two interrelated aspects to explaining the structure of velocity distributions in the foreshock, one involving the acceleration mechanism and the other, propagation from the source to the observing point. First, the source distribution of electrons energized by the shock must be determined along the shock surface. Proposed acceleration mechanisms include magnetic mirroring of incoming solar wind particles and mechanisms involving transmission of particles through the shock. Secondly, the kinematics of observable electrons streaming away from a curved shock with an initial parallel velocity and a downstream perpendicular velocity component due to the motional electric field must be determined. This is the context in which the observations and their explanations will be reviewed.

3-D Dynamic Rupture Simulations of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuyama, E.; Urata, Y.; Yoshida, K.

2016-12-01

On April 16, 2016 at 01:25 (JST), an M7.3 main shock of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence occurred along the Futagawa and Hinagu faults. A few days before, three M6-class foreshocks occurred: M6.5 on April 14 at 21:26, M5.8 on April 14 at 22:27, and M6.4 on April 15 at 00:03 (JST). The focal mechanisms of the first and third foreshocks were similar to those of the main shock; therefore, the extensive stress shadow should have been generated on the fault plane of the main shock. The purpose of this study is to illuminate why the rupture of the main shock propagated successfully under such stress conditions by 3-D dynamic rupture simulations, assuming the fault planes estimated by the distributions of aftershocks.First, we investigated time evolution of aftershock hypocenters relocated by the Double Difference method (Waldhauser & Ellsworth, 2000). The result showed that planar distribution of the hypocenters was formed after each M6 event. It allows us to estimate fault planes of the three foreshocks and the main shock.Then, we evaluated stress changes on the fault planes of the main shock due to the three foreshocks. We obtained the slip distributions of the foreshocks by using Eshelby (1957)'s solution, assuming elliptical cracks with constant stress drops on the estimated fault planes. The stress changes on the fault planes of the main shock were calculated by using Okada (1992)'s solution. The obtained stress change distribution showed that the hypocenter of the main shock existed on the region with positive ΔCFF while ΔCFF in the shallower regions than the hypocenter was negative. Therefore, the foreshocks could encourage the initiation of the main shock rupture and could hinder the rupture propagating toward the shallow region.Finally, we conducted 3-D dynamic rupture simulations (Hok and Fukuyama, 2011) of the main shock under the initial stresses, which were the sum of the stress changes by these foreshocks and the regional stress field estimated by Yoshida et al. (2016, submitted). We used slip-weakening law with uniform friction parameters. We conducted many simulations varying unknown parameters (the friction parameters and the values of the principal stresses), and we will discuss the conditions for the rupture propagation of the main shock and the effects of the foreshocks on the main shock.

The Pawnee earthquake as a result of the interplay among injection, faults and foreshocks.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaowei; Nakata, Nori; Pennington, Colin; Haffener, Jackson; Chang, Jefferson C; He, Xiaohui; Zhan, Zhongwen; Ni, Sidao; Walter, Jacob I

2017-07-10

The Pawnee M5.8 earthquake is the largest event in Oklahoma instrument recorded history. It occurred near the edge of active seismic zones, similar to other M5+ earthquakes since 2011. It ruptured a previously unmapped fault and triggered aftershocks along a complex conjugate fault system. With a high-resolution earthquake catalog, we observe propagating foreshocks leading to the mainshock within 0.5 km distance, suggesting existence of precursory aseismic slip. At approximately 100 days before the mainshock, two M ≥ 3.5 earthquakes occurred along a mapped fault that is conjugate to the mainshock fault. At about 40 days before, two earthquakes clusters started, with one M3 earthquake occurred two days before the mainshock. The three M ≥ 3 foreshocks all produced positive Coulomb stress at the mainshock hypocenter. These foreshock activities within the conjugate fault system are near-instantaneously responding to variations in injection rates at 95% confidence. The short time delay between injection and seismicity differs from both the hypothetical expected time scale of diffusion process and the long time delay observed in this region prior to 2016, suggesting a possible role of elastic stress transfer and critical stress state of the fault. Our results suggest that the Pawnee earthquake is a result of interplay among injection, tectonic faults, and foreshocks.

Simulation studies on the differences between spontaneous and triggered seismicity and on foreshock probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, J.; Vere-Jones, D.; Ogata, Y.; Christophersen, A.; Savage, M. K.; Jackson, D. D.

2008-12-01

In this study we investigate the foreshock probabilities calculated from earthquake catalogs from Japan, Southern California and New Zealand. Unlike conventional studies on foreshocks, we use a probability-based declustering method to separate each catalog into stochastic versions of family trees, such that each event is classified as either having been triggered by a preceding event, or being a spontaneous event. The probabilities are determined from parameters that provide the best fit of the real catalogue using a space- time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. The model assumes that background and triggered earthquakes have the same magnitude dependent triggering capability. A foreshock here is defined as a spontaneous event that has one or more larger descendants, and a triggered foreshock is a triggered event that has one or more larger descendants. The proportion of foreshocks in spontaneous events of each catalog is found to be lower than the proportion of triggered foreshocks in triggered events. One possibility is that this is due to different triggering productivity in spontaneous versus triggered events, i.e., a triggered event triggers more children than a spontaneous events of the same magnitude. To understand what causes the above differences between spontaneous and triggered events, we apply the same procedures to several synthetic catalogs simulated by using different models. The first simulation is done by using the ETAS model with parameters and spontaneous rate fitted from the JMA catalog. The second synthetic catalog is simulated by using an adjusted ETAS model that takes into account the triggering effect from events lower than the magnitude. That is, we simulated the catalog with a low magnitude threshold with the original ETAS model, and then we remove the events smaller than a higher magnitude threshold. The third model for simulation assumes that different triggering behaviors exist between spontaneous event and triggered events. We repeat the fitting and reconstruction procedures to all those simulated catalogs. The reconstruction results for the first synthetic catalog do not show the difference between spontaneous events and triggered event or the differences in foreshock probabilities. On the other hand, results from the synthetic catalogs simulated with the second and the third models clearly reconstruct such differences. In summary our results implies that one of the causes of such differences may be neglecting the triggering effort from events smaller than the cut-off magnitude or magnitude errors. For the objective of forecasting seismicity, we can use a clustering model in which spontaneous events trigger child events in a different way from triggered events to avoid over-predicting earthquake risks with foreshocks. To understand the physical implication of this study, we need further careful studies to compare the real seismicity and the adjusted ETAS model, which takes the triggering effect from events below the cut-off magnitude into account.

Relationship between Near-Field and Teleseismic Observations of Seismic Source Parameters

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-07-01

For example, foreshocks and aftershocks of the Utah-Idaho border and Oroville, California sequences of 1975, as recorded at the Albuquerque SRO station...have been analyzed and compared; in both cases the principal foreshock exhibited the same mechanisms as the main shock, while the aftershocks are

Stochastic Growth Theory of Spatially-Averaged Distributions of Langmuir Fields in Earth's Foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boshuizen, Christopher R.; Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.

2001-01-01

Langmuir-like waves in the foreshock of Earth are characteristically bursty and irregular, and are the subject of a number of recent studies. Averaged over the foreshock, it is observed that the probability distribution is power-law P(bar)(log E) in the wave field E with the bar denoting this averaging over position, In this paper it is shown that stochastic growth theory (SGT) can explain a power-law spatially-averaged distributions P(bar)(log E), when the observed power-law variations of the mean and standard deviation of log E with position are combined with the log normal statistics predicted by SGT at each location.

Wave-number spectra and intermittency in the terrestrial foreshock region.

PubMed

Narita, Y; Glassmeier, K-H; Treumann, R A

2006-11-10

Wave-number spectra of magnetic field fluctuations are directly determined in the terrestrial foreshock region (upstream of a quasiparallel collisionless shock wave) using four-point Cluster spacecraft measurements. The spectral curve is characterized by three ranges reminiscent of turbulence: energy injection, inertial, and dissipation range. The spectral index for the inertial range spectrum is close to Kolmogorov's slope, -5/3. On the other hand, the fluctuations are highly anisotropic and intermittent perpendicular to the mean magnetic field direction. These results suggest that the foreshock is in a weakly turbulent and intermittent state in which parallel propagating Alfvén waves interact with one another, resulting in the phase coherence or the intermittency.

Near Field Small Earthquake Long Period Spectrum

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-04-01

L. Fredrickson, personal communication). The main shock occurred eight seconds after a magnitude 4.5 foreshock , and according to T. V. McEvilly...the strike (but rat the dip) of this plar^e is in good agreenant with that (IT C90 W) obtained from a faultplane solution for a large foreshock 0

AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCES AND CRUSTAL STRUCTURE IN THE REGION OF GREECE.

DTIC Science & Technology

the strain release characteristics and other properties of the aftershock and foreshock sequences (1) of all shocks of M 5.9 which have occurred in...relation between the water loading of two artificial lakes in the region of Greece and the earthquake activity in foreshocks or swarm of shocks triggered

Lunar Surface Electric Potential Changes Associated with Traversals through the Earth's Foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collier, Michael R.; Hills, H. Kent; Stubbs, Timothy J.; Halekas, Jasper S.; Delory, Gregory T.; Espley, Jared; Farrell, William M.; Freeman, John W.; Vondrak, Richard

2011-01-01

We report an analysis of one year of Suprathermal Ion Detector Experiment (SIDE) Total Ion Detector (TID) resonance events observed between January 1972 and January 1973. The study includes only those events during which upstream solar wind conditions were readily available. The analysis shows that these events are associated with lunar traversals through the dawn flank of the terrestrial magnetospheric bow shock. We propose that the events result from an increase in lunar surface electric potential effected by secondary electron emission due to primary electrons in the Earth's foreshock region (although primary ions may play a role as well). This work establishes (1) the lunar surface potential changes as the Moon moves through the terrestrial bow shock, (2) the lunar surface achieves potentials in the upstream foreshock region that differ from those in the downstream magnetosheath region, (3) these differences can be explained by the presence of energetic electron beams in the upstream foreshock region and (4) if this explanation is correct, the location of the Moon with respect to the terrestrial bow shock influences lunar surface potential.

First Test of Stochastic Growth Theory for Langmuir Waves in Earth's Foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.

1997-01-01

This paper presents the first test of whether stochastic growth theory (SGT) can explain the detailed characteristics of Langmuir-like waves in Earth's foreshock. A period with unusually constant solar wind magnetic field is analyzed. The observed distributions P(logE) of wave fields E for two intervals with relatively constant spacecraft location (DIFF) are shown to agree well with the fundamental prediction of SGT, that P(logE) is Gaussian in log E. This stochastic growth can be accounted for semi-quantitatively in terms of standard foreshock beam parameters and a model developed for interplanetary type III bursts. Averaged over the entire period with large variations in DIFF, the P(logE) distribution is a power-law with index approximately -1; this is interpreted in terms of convolution of intrinsic, spatially varying P(logE) distributions with a probability function describing ISEE's residence time at a given DIFF. Wave data from this interval thus provide good observational evidence that SGT can sometimes explain the clumping, burstiness, persistence, and highly variable fields of the foreshock Langmuir-like waves.

First test of stochastic growth theory for Langmuir waves in Earth's foreshock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.

This paper presents the first test of whether stochastic growth theory (SGT) can explain the detailed characteristics of Langmuir-like waves in Earth's foreshock. A period with unusually constant solar wind magnetic field is analyzed. The observed distributions P(log E) of wave fields E for two intervals with relatively constant spacecraft location (DIFF) are shown to agree well with the fundamental prediction of SGT, that P(log E) is Gaussian in log E. This stochastic growth can be accounted for semi-quantitatively in terms of standard foreshock beam parameters and a model developed for interplanetary type III bursts. Averaged over the entire period with large variations in DIFF, the P(log E) distribution is a power-law with index ˜ -1 this is interpreted in terms of convolution of intrinsic, spatially varying P(log E) distributions with a probability function describing ISEE's residence time at a given DIFF. Wave data from this interval thus provide good observational evidence that SGT can sometimes explain the clumping, burstiness, persistence, and highly variable fields of the foreshock Langmuir-like waves.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dieterich, J.H.; Kilgore, B.

1996-01-01

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance D(c), apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time- dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of D, apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of D(c) is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

PubMed

Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

1996-04-30

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.; Jones, L.M.

1998-01-01

For a decade, the US Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude six mainshock. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

The seismic velocity structure of a foreshock zone on an oceanic transform fault: Imaging a rupture barrier to the 2008 Mw 6.0 earthquake on the Gofar fault, EPR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, E. C.; McGuire, J. J.; Lizarralde, D.; Collins, J. A.

2010-12-01

East Pacific Rise (EPR) oceanic transform faults are known to exhibit a number of unique seismicity characteristics, including abundant seismic swarms, a prevalence of aseismic slip, and high rates of foreshock activity. Until recently the details of how this behavior fits into the seismic cycle of large events that occur periodically on transforms have remained poorly understood. In 2008 the most recent seismic cycle of the western segment (G3) of the Gofar fault (4 degrees South on the EPR) ended with a Mw 6.0 earthquake. Seismicity associated with this event was recorded by a local array of ocean bottom seismometers, and earthquake locations reveal several distinct segments with unique slip behavior on the G3 fault. Preceding the Mw 6.0 event, a significant foreshock sequence was recorded just to the east of the mainshock rupture zone that included more than 20,000 detected earthquakes. This foreshock zone formed the eastern barrier to the mainshock rupture, and following the mainshock, seismicity rates within the foreshock zone remained unchanged. Based on aftershock locations of events following the 2007 Mw 6.0 event that completed the seismic cycle on the eastern end of the G3 fault, it appears that the same foreshock zone may have served as the western rupture barrier for that prior earthquake. Moreover, mainshock rupture associated with each of the last 8 large (~ Mw 6.0) events on the G3 fault seems to terminate at the same foreshock zone. In order to elucidate some of the structural controls on fault slip and earthquake rupture along transform faults, we present a seismic P-wave velocity profile crossing the center of the foreshock zone of the Gofar fault, as well as a profile for comparison across the neighboring Quebrada fault. Although tectonically similar, Quebrada does not sustain large earthquakes and is thought to accommodate slip primarily aseismically and with small magnitude earthquake swarms. Velocity profiles were obtained using data collected from ~100 km refraction profiles crossing the two faults, each using 8 short period ocean bottom seismometers from OBSIP and over 900 shots from the RV Marcus Langseth. These data are modeled using a 2-D tomographic code that allows joint inversion of the Pg, PmP, and Pn arrivals. We resolve a significant low velocity zone associated with the faults, which likely indicates rocks that have undergone intensive brittle deformation. Low velocities may also signify the presence of metamorphic alteration and/or elevated fluid pressures, both of which could have a significant affect on the friction laws that govern fault slip in these regions. A broad low velocity zone is apparent in the shallow crust (< 3km) at both faults, with velocities that are reduced by more than 1 km/s relative to the surrounding oceanic crust. A narrower zone of reduced seismic velocity appears to extend to mantle depths, and particularly on the Gofar fault, this corresponds with the seismogenic zone inferred from located foreshock seismicity, spanning depths of 3-9 km beneath the seafloor.

Foreshock waves as observed in energetic ion flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrukovich, A. A.; Chugunova, O. M.; Inamori, T.; Kudela, K.; Stetiarova, J.

2017-05-01

Oscillations of energetic ion fluxes with periods 10-100 s are often present in the Earth's foreshock. Detailed analysis of wave properties with Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms data and comparisons with other data sets confirm that these oscillations are the previously unnoticed part of well-known "30 s" waves but are observed mainly for higher-speed solar wind. Simultaneous magnetic oscillations have similar periods, large amplitudes, and nonharmonic unstable waveforms or shocklet-type appearance, suggesting their nonlinearity, also typical for high solar wind speed. Analysis of the general foreshock data set of Interball project shows that the average flux of the backstreaming energetic ions increases more than 1 order of magnitude, when solar wind speed increases from 400 to 500 km/s.

Solar wind deceleration and MHD turbulence in the earth's foreshock region - ISEE 1 and 2 and IMP 8 observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonifazi, C.; Moreno, G.; Russell, C. T.; Lazarus, A. J.; Sullivan, J. D.

1983-01-01

The interaction of the solar wind with ions backstreaming from the earth's bow shock is investigated using plasma and magnetic field measurements on ISEE 1 and 2 and IMP 8 at widely separated positions in the earth's foreshock. This technique separates temporal and spatial variations within the foreshock. It is found that the solar wind acceleration associated with backstreaming ions is correlated with the amplitude of the MHD turbulence, and that the largest decelerations are seen close to the bow shock. The density of the backstreaming ion beam is strongly correlated with distance from the shock, and decreases by about a factor of three in a distance of about 3R(e).

Observations of the magnetic fluctuation enhancement in the earth's foreshock region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, G.; Russell, C. T.

1990-01-01

Upstream waves have been postulated to be a major source of energy for the dayside magnetic pulsations within the magnetosphere. Thus, it is of interest to determine over what frequency range in the ion foreshock the power of fluctuations in the solar wind is enhanced. The magnetic field data from pairs of spacecraft, when they stay on either side of the ion foreshock boundary, were examined. It was found that the power of magnetic fluctuations is enhanced only at periods less than about two minutes, not at longer periods. Thus the upstream waves may contribute to Pc 3 and Pc 4 pulsations in the dayside magnetosphere, but they cannot be directly responsible for the longer-period waves.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

PubMed Central

Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

1996-01-01

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks. Images Fig. 3 PMID:11607666

Observations of large-amplitude MHD waves in Jupiter's foreshock in connection with a quasi-perpendicular shock structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavassano-Cattaneo, M. B.; Moreno, G.; Scotto, M. T.; Acuna, M.

1987-01-01

Plasma and magnetic field observations performed onboard the Voyager 2 spacecraft have been used to investigate Jupiter's foreshock. Large-amplitude waves have been detected in association with the quasi-perpendicular structure of the Jovian bow shock, thus proving that the upstream turbulence is not a characteristic signature of the quasi-parallel shock.

Prediction of Solar-Terrestrial Disturbances: Decay Phase of Energetic Proton Events.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-10-01

Dependence of 50 keV upstream ion events at IMP 7/8 upon magnetic field-bow shock geometry in the earth’s foreshock : A statistical study, J. Geophys_.Rers...ion events in the F. C. Roelof Earth’s foreshock R. Reinhard ISEE-3/IKtP-8 observations of simultaneous upstream proton T. R. Sanderson events K.-P

Collaborative Research: Ground Truth of African and Eastern Mediterranean Shallow Seismicity Using SAR Interferometry and Gibbs Sampling Inversion

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-05

the likely existence of a small foreshock . 2. BACKGROUND 2.1. InSAR The most well-known examples of InSAR used as a geodetic tool involve...the event. We have used the seismic waveforms in the Sultan Dag event to identify a small foreshock preceding the main shock by about 3 seconds

Evidence for Neutrals-Foreshock Electrons Impact at Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazelle, C. X.; Meziane, K.; Mitchell, D. L.; Garnier, P.; Espley, J. R.; Hamza, A. M.; Halekas, J.; Jakosky, B. M.

2018-05-01

Backstreaming electrons emanating from the bow shock of Mars reported from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN/Solar Wind Electron Analyzer observations show a flux fall off with the distance from the shock. This feature is not observed at the terrestrial foreshock. The flux decay is observed only for electron energy E ≥ 29 eV. A reported recent study indicates that Mars foreshock electrons are produced at the shock in a mirror reflection of a portion of the solar wind electrons. In this context, and given that the electrons are sufficiently energetic to not be affected by the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuations, the observed flux decrease appears problematic. We investigate the possibility that the flux fall off with distance results from the impact of backstreaming electrons with Mars exospheric neutral hydrogen. We demonstrate that the flux fall off is consistent with the electron-atomic hydrogen impact cross section for a large range of energy. A better agreement is obtained for energy where the impact cross section is the highest. One important consequence is that foreshock electrons can play an important role in the production of pickup ions at Mars far exosphere.

Plasma Waves in the Magnetosheath of Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangeway, Robert J.

1996-01-01

Research supported by this grant is divided into three basic topics of investigation. These are: (1) Plasma waves in the Venus magnetosheath, (2) Plasma waves in the Venus foreshock and solar wind, (3) plasma waves in the Venus nightside ionosphere and ionotail. The main issues addressed in the first area - Plasma waves in the Venus magnetosheath - dealt with the wave modes observed in the magnetosheath and upper ionosphere, and whether these waves are a significant source of heating for the topside ionosphere. The source of the waves was also investigated. In the second area - Plasma waves in the Venus foreshock and solar wind, we carried out some research on waves observed upstream of the planetary bow shock known as the foreshock. The foreshock and bow shock modify the ambient magnetic field and plasma, and need to be understood if we are to understand the magnetosheath. Although most of the research was directed to wave observations on the dayside of the planet, in the last of the three basic areas studied, we also analyzed data from the nightside. The plasma waves observed by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter on the nightside continue to be of considerable interest since they have been cited as evidence for lightning on Venus.

Strong plasma turbulence in the earth's electron foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, P. A.; Newman, D. L.

1991-01-01

A quantitative model is developed to account for the distribution in magnitude and location of the intense plasma waves observed in the earth's electron foreshock given the observed rms levels of waves. In this model, nonlinear strong-turbulence effects cause solitonlike coherent wave packets to form and decouple from incoherent background beam-excited weak turbulence, after which they convect downstream with the solar wind while collapsing to scales as short as 100 m and fields as high as 2 V/m. The existence of waves with energy densities above the strong-turbulence wave-collapse threshold is inferred from observations from IMP 6 and ISEE 1 and quantitative agreement is found between the predicted distribution of fields in an ensemble of such wave packets and the actual field distribution observed in situ by IMP 6. Predictions for the polarization of plasma waves and the bandwidth of ion-sound waves are also consistent with the observations. It is shown that strong-turbulence effects must be incorporated in any comprehensive theory of the propagation and evolution of electron beams in the foreshock. Previous arguments against the existence of strong turbulence in the foreshock are refuted.

Thermal and Driven Stochastic Growth of Langmuir Waves in the Solar Wind and Earth's Foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.; Anderson, R. R.

2000-01-01

Statistical distributions of Langmuir wave fields in the solar wind and the edge of Earth's foreshock are analyzed and compared with predictions for stochastic growth theory (SGT). SGT quantitatively explains the solar wind, edge, and deep foreshock data as pure thermal waves, driven thermal waves subject to net linear growth and stochastic effects, and as waves in a pure SGT state, respectively, plus radiation near the plasma frequency f(sub p). These changes are interpreted in terms of spatial variations in the beam instability's growth rate and evolution toward a pure SGT state. SGT analyses of field distributions are shown to provide a viable alternative to thermal noise spectroscopy for wave instruments with coarse frequency resolution, and to separate f(sub p) radiation from Langmuir waves.

Langmuir-like waves and radiation in planetary foreshocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.; Anderson, R. R.; Gurnett, D. A.; Kurth, W. S.

1995-01-01

The basic objectives of this NASA Grant are to develop theoretical understandings (tested with spacecraft data) of the generation and characteristics of electron plasma waves, commonly known as Langmuir-like waves, and associated radiation near f(sub p) and 2f(sub p) in planetary foreshocks. (Here f(sub p) is plasma frequency.) Related waves and radiation in the source regions of interplanetary type III solar radio bursts provide a simpler observational and theoretical context for developing and testing such understandings. Accordingly, applications to type III bursts constitute a significant fraction of the research effort. The testing of the new Stochastic Growth Theory (SGT) for type III bursts, and its extension and testing for foreshock waves and radiation, constitutes a major longterm strategic goal of the research effort.

Geological-Seismological Evaluation of Earthquake Hazards at West Thompson Damsite, Connecticut.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

Connecticut, N of 41.61N 72.12W 1.5 - Norwich ( Foreshock ) 29 Jun 80 Connecticut, N of 41.46N 72.09W 1.8 - Norwich 28 Jul 80 Connecticut, N of 41.52N...the event was judged to be either an aftershock or foreshock ; the geographic location is given as north latitude and west longitude, to the nearest 0.10

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the Microseismicity Preceding the 2016 M L 6.6 Meinong Earthquake in Southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Hsin-Chieh

2018-02-01

Before the M L 6.6 Meinong earthquake in 2016, intermediate-term quiescence (Q i), foreshocks, and short-term quiescence (Q s) were extracted from a comprehensive earthquake catalog. In practice, these behaviors are thought to be the seismic indicators of an earthquake precursor, and their spatiotemporal characteristics may be associated with location, magnitude, and occurrence time of the following main shock. Hence, detailed examinations were carried out to derive the spatiotemporal characteristics of these meaningful seismic behaviors. First, the spatial range of the Q i that occurred for 96 days was revealed in and around the Meinong earthquake. Second, a series of foreshocks was present for 1 day, clustered at the southeastern end of the Meinong earthquake. Third, Q s was present for 3 days and was pronounced after the foreshocks. Although these behaviors were recorded difficultly because the Q i was characterized by microseismicity at the lower cut-off magnitude, between M L 1.2 and 1.6, and most of the foreshocks were comprised of earthquakes with a magnitude lower than 1.8, they carried meaningful precursory indicators preceding the Meinong earthquake. These indicators provide the information of (1) the hypocenter, which was indicated by the area including the Q i, foreshocks, and Q s; (2) the magnitude, which could be associated to the spatial range of the Q i; (3) the asperity locations, which might be related to the areas of extraordinary low seismicity; and (4) a short-term warning leading of 3 days, which could have been announced based on the occurrence of the Q s. Particularly, Q i also appeared before strong inland earthquakes so that Q i might be an anticipative phenomenon before a strong earthquake in Taiwan.

Systematic Study of Foreshocks and Triggered Earthquakes During the 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X.; Peng, Z.; Deng, S.; Castro, R. R.

2015-12-01

The 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake occurred southwest of the Pacific-North America plate boundary in north Baja California. It was preceded by an intensive foreshock sequence, and was followed by numerous aftershocks both on and off the mainshock rupture zone, hence providing us a great opportunity to study the physical mechanisms of foreshock and aftershock triggering. In our previously published work (Meng and Peng, GJI, 2014), we focused on the seismicity rate changes around the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) and along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF) following the mainshock. Based on a recently developed matched filter technique, we were able to detect up to 20 times more events than listed in the SCSN catalog. We found that the seismicity rate near SSGF and SJF both experienced significant increase immediately following the mainshock. However, the seismicity rate near SSGF, where static Coulomb stress decreased, dropped below the pre-mainshock level after ~50 days. On the other hand, the seismicity rate near SJF, where static Coulomb stress increased, remained high till the end of our detecting time window. Such pattern indicates that both static and dynamic triggering may coexist, but dominate in different time scales. Motivated by this success, we shift our focus to the foreshock and aftershock sequence of the El Mayor-Cucapah event. We utilize available seismic stations immediately north to US-Mexico boarder and a few stations within Mexico to conduct a similar detection ~40 days before to 40 days after the mainshock. We aim to obtain a complete foreshock sequence and investigate its spatio-temporal evolutions before the mainshock. Moreover, we plan to study similar patterns for aftershocks and the corresponding triggering mechanisms. Updated results will be presented at the meeting.

Gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

PubMed

Schurr, Bernd; Asch, Günter; Hainzl, Sebastian; Bedford, Jonathan; Hoechner, Andreas; Palo, Mauro; Wang, Rongjiang; Moreno, Marcos; Bartsch, Mitja; Zhang, Yong; Oncken, Onno; Tilmann, Frederik; Dahm, Torsten; Victor, Pia; Barrientos, Sergio; Vilotte, Jean-Pierre

2014-08-21

On 1 April 2014, Northern Chile was struck by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake following a protracted series of foreshocks. The Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile monitored the entire sequence of events, providing unprecedented resolution of the build-up to the main event and its rupture evolution. Here we show that the Iquique earthquake broke a central fraction of the so-called northern Chile seismic gap, the last major segment of the South American plate boundary that had not ruptured in the past century. Since July 2013 three seismic clusters, each lasting a few weeks, hit this part of the plate boundary with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes. Starting with the second cluster, geodetic observations show surface displacements that can be associated with slip on the plate interface. These seismic clusters and their slip transients occupied a part of the plate interface that was transitional between a fully locked and a creeping portion. Leading up to this earthquake, the b value of the foreshocks gradually decreased during the years before the earthquake, reversing its trend a few days before the Iquique earthquake. The mainshock finally nucleated at the northern end of the foreshock area, which skirted a locked patch, and ruptured mainly downdip towards higher locking. Peak slip was attained immediately downdip of the foreshock region and at the margin of the locked patch. We conclude that gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap accentuated by the foreshock activity in a zone of intermediate seismic coupling was instrumental in causing final failure, distinguishing the Iquique earthquake from most great earthquakes. Finally, only one-third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant, increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude of >8.5.

Measurement of the electron beam mode in earth's foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Onsager, T. G.; Holzworth, R. H.

1990-01-01

High frequency electric field measurements from the AMPTE IRM plasma wave receiver are used to identify three simultaneously excited electrostatic wave modes in the earth's foreshock region: the electron beam mode, the Langmuir mode, and the ion acoustic mode. A technique is developed which allows the rest frame frequecy and wave number of the electron beam waves to be determined. It is shown that the experimentally determined rest frame frequency and wave number agree well with the most unstable frequency and wave number predicted by linear homogeneous Vlasov theory for a plasma with Maxwellian background electrons and a Lorentzian electron beam. From a comparison of the experimentally determined and theoretical values, approximate limits are put on the electron foreshock beam temperatures. A possible generation mechanism for ion acoustic waves involving mode coupling between the electron beam and Langmuir modes is also discussed.

The Effects of Travel Path and Source Structure on the Character of Regional Distance Seismograms from Nuclear Explosions

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-12-27

and had a ML of 6.4. The earthquake sequence was very energetic, having a foreshock with a ML of 5.9 and three large aftershocks measuring 5.8, 5.6...regional data-A review, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 72, S89-S129. Smith, K. D., and K. F. Priestley (1988). The foreshock sequence of the 1986 Chalfant

Spectral properties of Langmuir and beam-mode waves observed inside terrestrial foreshock by Cluster spacecraf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisa, D.; Soucek, J.; Santolik, O.

2016-12-01

Electrostatic plasma waves are commonly observed in the upstream regions of planetary shocks. Solar wind electrons accelerated at the shock front are reflected back into the solar wind and form electron beams. The electron distribution becomes unstable and electrostatic waves are generated inside the foreshock region. The processes of generation and evolution of electrostatic waves significantly depend on the solar wind plasma conditions and generally exhibit complex behavior. Langmuir waves can be identified as intense narrowband emission at the local plasma frequency and weaker broadband beam-mode waves below and above the plasma frequency deeper in the downstream region. We present a long-term survey of Langmuir and beam-mode waves in the vicinity of the plasma frequency observed upstream of the terrestrial bow shock by the Cluster spacecraft. Using solar wind data and bow shock positions from OMNI, as well as in-situ measurements of interplanetary magnetic field, we have mapped all available spacecraft positions into foreshock coordinates. For a study of plasma waves, we have used spectra and local plasma frequencies obtained from a passive and active mode of the WHISPER instrument. We show a spatial distribution of wave frequencies and spectral widths as a function of foreshock positions and solar wind conditions.

Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks.

PubMed

Zhuang, Jiancang; Ogata, Yosihiko

2006-04-01

The space-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is a stochastic branching process in which earthquake activity is classified into background and clustering components and each earthquake triggers other earthquakes independently according to certain rules. This paper gives the probability distributions associated with the largest event in a cluster and their properties for all three cases when the process is subcritical, critical, and supercritical. One of the direct uses of these probability distributions is to evaluate the probability of an earthquake to be a foreshock, and magnitude distributions of foreshocks and nonforeshock earthquakes. To verify these theoretical results, the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalog is analyzed. The proportion of events that have 1 or more larger descendants in total events is found to be as high as about 15%. When the differences between background events and triggered event in the behavior of triggering children are considered, a background event has a probability about 8% to be a foreshock. This probability decreases when the magnitude of the background event increases. These results, obtained from a complicated clustering model, where the characteristics of background events and triggered events are different, are consistent with the results obtained in [Ogata, Geophys. J. Int. 127, 17 (1996)] by using the conventional single-linked cluster declustering method.

Maximum Langmuir Fields in Planetary Foreshocks Determined from the Electrostatic Decay Threshold

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, P. A.; Cairns, Iver H.

1995-01-01

Maximum electric fields of Langmuir waves at planetary foreshocks are estimated from the threshold for electrostatic decay, assuming it saturates beam driven growth, and incorporating heliospheric variation of plasma density and temperature. Comparisons with spacecraft observations yields good quantitative agreement. Observations in type 3 radio sources are also in accord with this interpretation. A single mechanism can thus account for the highest fields of beam driven waves in both contexts.

Kinetic Interactions Between the Solar Wind and Lunar Magnetic Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halekas, J. S.; Poppe, A. R.; Fatemi, S.; Turner, D. L.; Holmstrom, M.

2016-12-01

Despite their relatively weak strength, small scale, and incoherence, lunar magnetic anomalies can affect the incoming solar wind flow. The plasma interaction with lunar magnetic fields drives significant compressions of the solar wind plasma and magnetic field, deflections of the incoming flow, and a host of plasma waves ranging from the ULF to the electrostatic range. Recent work suggests that the large-scale features of the solar wind-magnetic anomaly interactions may be driven by ion-ion instabilities excited by reflected ions, raising the possibility that they are analogous to ion foreshock phenomena. Indeed, despite their small scale, many of the phenomena observed near lunar magnetic anomalies appear to have analogues in the foreshock regions of terrestrial planets. We discuss the charged particle distributions, fields, and waves observed near lunar magnetic anomalies, and place them in a context with the foreshocks of the Earth, Mars, and other solar system objects.

Theory for low-frequency modulated Langmuir wave packets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Robinson, P. A.

1992-01-01

Langmuir wave packets with low frequency modulations (or beats) observed in the Jovian foreshock are argued to be direct evidence for the Langmuir wave decay L yields L-prime + S. In this decay, 'pump' Langmuir waves L, driven by an electron beam, produce backscattered product Langmuir waves L-prime and ion sound waves S. The L and L-prime waves beat at the frequency and wavevector of the S waves, thereby modulating the wave packets. Beam speeds calculated using the modulated Jovian wave packets (1) are reasonable, at 4-10 times the electron thermal speed, (2) are consistent with theoretical limits on the decay process, and (3) decrease with increasing foreshock depth, as expected theoretically. These results strongly support the theory. The modulation depth of some wave packets suggests saturation by the decay L yields L-prime + S. Applications to modulated Langmuir packets in the Venusian and terrestrial foreshocks and in a type III radio source are proposed.

New Observation of Wave Excitation and Inverse Cascade in the Foreshock Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Jiansen; Duan, Die; Yan, Limei; Huang, Shiyong; Tu, Chuanyi; Marsch, Eckart; Wang, Linghua; Tian, Hui

2016-04-01

Foreshock with nascent plasma turbulence is regarded as a fascinating region to understand the basic plasma physical processes, e.g., wave-particle interactions as well as wave-wave couplings. Although there have been a bunch of intensive studies on this topic, some key clues about the chain of the physical processes still lacks from observations, e.g., the co-existence of upstream energetic particles as the free energy source, excited pump waves as the wave seed, inverse cascaded daughter waves, and scattered energetic particles as the end of nonlinear processes. A relatively comprehensive case study with some new observations is presented in this work. In our case, upstream energetic protons drifting at tens of Alfvén speed with respect to the background plasma protons is observed from 3DP/PESA-High onboard the WIND spacecraft. When looking at the wave magnetic activities, we are surprised to find the co-existence of high-frequency (0.1-0.5 Hz) large-amplitude right-hand polarized (RHP) waves and low-frequency (0.02-0.1 Hz) small-amplitude left-hand polarized (LHP) waves in the spacecraft (SC) frame. The anti-correlation between magnetic and velocity fluctuations along with the sunward magnetic field direction indicates the low-frequency LHP waves in the SC frame is in fact the sunward upstream RHP waves in the solar wind frame. This new observation lays solid foundation for the applicability of plasma non-resonance instability theory and inverse cascade theory to the foreshock region, in which the downstream high-frequency RHP pump waves are excited by the upstream reflected energetic protons through non-resonance instability and low-frequency RHP daughter waves are generated by the pump waves due to nonlinear parametric decay. The weak signal of alpha particle flux in the foreshock region concerned is also favorable to the occurrence of nonlinear decay process. Furthermore, enhanced downstream energetic proton fluxes are found and inferred to be scattered by the nascent turbulent fluctuations. Therefore, some key clues about the newborn turbulence in the foreshock are supplemented in this work. Nevertheless, the more complete scenario about the fundamental plasma physical processes in the foreshock is left for the newly launched MMS project and the proposed THOR mission.

Comparison of aftershock sequences between 1975 Haicheng earthquake and 1976 Tangshan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, B.

2017-12-01

The 1975 ML 7.3 Haicheng earthquake and the 1976 ML 7.8 Tangshan earthquake occurred in the same tectonic unit. There are significant differences in spatial-temporal distribution, number of aftershocks and time duration for the aftershock sequence followed by these two main shocks. As we all know, aftershocks could be triggered by the regional seismicity change derived from the main shock, which was caused by the Coulomb stress perturbation. Based on the rate- and state- dependent friction law, we quantitative estimated the possible aftershock time duration with a combination of seismicity data, and compared the results from different approaches. The results indicate that, aftershock time durations from the Tangshan main shock is several times of that form the Haicheng main shock. This can be explained by the significant relationship between aftershock time duration and earthquake nucleation history, normal stressand shear stress loading rateon the fault. In fact the obvious difference of earthquake nucleation history from these two main shocks is the foreshocks. 1975 Haicheng earthquake has clear and long foreshocks, while 1976 Tangshan earthquake did not have clear foreshocks. In that case, abundant foreshocks may mean a long and active nucleation process that may have changed (weakened) the rocks in the source regions, so they should have a shorter aftershock sequences for the reason that stress in weak rocks decay faster.

Dual Megathrust Slip Behaviors of the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Huang, H.; Burgmann, R.; Ampuero, J. P.; Strader, A. E.

2014-12-01

The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A M 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of Northern Chile. This event was preceded by a 2-week-long foreshock sequence including a M 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes are found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock area, suggesting a large scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence time of repeating earthquakes highlights the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while other repeaters occurred both before and after the mainshock in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatial and temporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrate the essential role of propagating aseismic slip in leading up to the mainshock and aftershock activities. Various finite fault models indicate that the coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show slow initiation with low amplitude moment rate at low frequency (< 0.1 Hz), while back-projection shows a steady initiation at high frequency (> 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the high-frequency rupture remains within an area of low gravity anomaly, suggesting possible upper-crustal structures that promote high-frequency generation. Back-projection also shows an episode of reverse rupture propagation which suggests a delayed failure of asperities in the foreshock area. Our results highlight the complexity of the interactions between large-scale aseismic slow-slip and dynamic ruptures of megathrust earthquakes.

Study of intermittent dynamics in the terrestrial foreshock using the Cluster spacecraft records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovács, Péter; Vadász, Gergely; Koppán, András; Vörös, Zoltán

2014-05-01

The paper concerns with the statistical investigation of the intermittent dynamics in the terrestrial foreshock. We use the 22.5 Hz FGM magnetic data of the four spacecraft of the Cluster mission from periods when the mission orbit traversed the solar wind (January-April in the years of 2001-2010). Intermittency is studied in terms of space and time through a sliding-window probability density function (PDF) analysis of the records. The spatial dependence of the appearance of intermittent fluctuations is monitored according to the distance from the bow shock (BS) and the angle measured between the BS normal and the IMF direction (quasi parallel and perpendicular conditions). Beside the intermittent turbulent fluctuations, the foreshock dynamics is dominated by various wave phenomena, that are, in most cases, more energetic than the turbulent activity. For this reason, a high-pass wavelet filtering is carried out on the time-series for extracting the small-amplitude intermittent fluctuations at high-frequencies. The level of intermittent fluctuations is measured through the deviation of the fourth statistical moments of the time-series increments (i.e. the flatness) from the Gaussian value, 3. Instead of temporal increments, the PDF analysis is also carried out with spatial differences among the records of the four Cluster spacecraft. In this case the Taylor hypothesis has not to be invoked in the interpretation of the obtained results. It is shown that the intermittency level measured by spatial differences decreases logarithmically with the inter-spacecraft distance. The level of intermittent fluctuations in the foreshock is studied in terms of different solar wind conditions. The strongest correlation turns out to be between the intensity of intermittent foreshock dynamics and the solar wind bulk velocity and Alfvén Mach number. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme ([FP7/2007-2013]) under grant agreement n° 313038/STORM.

Origin of energetic ions observed in the terrestrial ion foreshock : 2D full-particle simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savoini, Philippe; Lembege, bertrand

2016-04-01

Collisionless shocks are well-known structures in astrophysical environments which dissipate bulk flow kinetic energy and accelerate large fraction of particle. Spacecrafts have firmly established the existence of the so-called terrestrial foreshock region magnetically connected to the shock and filled by two distinct populations in the quasi-perpendicular shock region (i.e. for 45r{ } ≤ quad θ Bn quad ≤ 90r{ }, where θ Bn is the angle between the shock normal and the upstream magnetic field) : (i) the field-aligned ion beams or `` FAB '' characterized by a gyrotropic distributionsout{,} and (ii) the gyro-phase bunched ions or `` GPB '' characterized by a NON gyrotropic distribution. The present work is based on the use of two dimensional PIC simulation of a curved shock and associated foreshock region where full curvature effects, time of flight effects and both electrons and ions dynamics are fully described by a self consistent approach. Our previous analysis (Savoini et Lembège, 2015) has evidenced that these two types of backstreaming populations can originate from the shock front itself without invoking any local diffusion by ion beam instabilities. Present results are focussed on individual ion trajectories and evidence that "FAB" population is injected into the foreshock mainly along the shock front whereas the "GPB" population penetrates more deeply the shock front. Such differences explain why the "FAB" population loses their gyro-phase coherency and become gyrotropic which is not the case for the "GPB". The impact of these different injection features on the energy gain for each ion population will be presented in détails. Savoini, P. and B. Lembège (2015), `` Production of nongyrotropic and gyrotropic backstreaming ion distributions in the quasi-perpendicular ion foreshock région '', J. Geophys. Res., 120, pp 7154-7171, doi = 10.1002/2015JA021018.

3-D Spontaneous Rupture Simulations of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Yumi; Yoshida, Keisuke; Fukuyama, Eiichi

2017-04-01

We investigated the M7.3 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake to illuminate why and how the rupture of the main shock propagated successfully by 3-D dynamic rupture simulations, assuming a complicated fault geometry estimated based on the distributions of aftershocks. The M7.3 main shock occurred along the Futagawa and Hinagu faults. A few days before, three M6-class foreshocks occurred. Their hypocenters were located along by the Hinagu and Futagawa faults and their focal mechanisms were similar to those of the main shock; therefore, an extensive stress shadow can have been generated on the fault plane of the main shock. First, we estimated the geometry of the fault planes of the three foreshocks as well as that of the main shock based on the temporal evolution of relocated aftershock hypocenters. Then, we evaluated static stress changes on the main shock fault plane due to the occurrence of the three foreshocks assuming elliptical cracks with constant stress drops on the estimated fault planes. The obtained static stress change distribution indicated that the hypocenter of the main shock is located on the region with positive Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) while ΔCFS in the shallow region above the hypocenter was negative. Therefore, these foreshocks could encourage the initiation of the main shock rupture and could hinder the rupture propagating toward the shallow region. Finally, we conducted 3-D dynamic rupture simulations of the main shock using the initial stress distribution, which was the sum of the static stress changes by these foreshocks and the regional stress field. Assuming a slip-weakening law with uniform friction parameters, we conducted 3-D dynamic rupture simulations by varying the friction parameters and the values of the principal stresses. We obtained feasible parameter ranges to reproduce the rupture propagation of the main shock consistent with those revealed by seismic waveform analyses. We also demonstrated that the free surface encouraged the slip evolution of the main shock.

Kinetic Simulations of Type II Radio Burst Emission Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganse, U.; Spanier, F. A.; Vainio, R. O.

2011-12-01

The fundamental emission process of Type II Radio Bursts has been under discussion for many decades. While analytic deliberations point to three wave interaction as the source for fundamental and harmonic radio emissions, sparse in-situ observational data and high computational demands for kinetic simulations have not allowed for a definite conclusion to be reached. A popular model puts the radio emission into the foreshock region of a coronal mass ejection's shock front, where shock drift acceleration can create eletrcon beam populations in the otherwise quiescent foreshock plasma. Beam-driven instabilities are then assumed to create waves, forming the starting point of three wave interaction processes. Using our kinetic particle-in-cell code, we have studied a number of emission scenarios based on electron beam populations in a CME foreshock, with focus on wave-interaction microphysics on kinetic scales. The self-consistent, fully kinetic simulations with completely physical mass-ratio show fundamental and harmonic emission of transverse electromagnetic waves and allow for detailled statistical analysis of all contributing wavemodes and their couplings.

Fault Rupture Model of the 2016 Gyeongju, South Korea, Earthquake and Its Implication for the Underground Fault System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchide, Takahiko; Song, Seok Goo

2018-03-01

The 2016 Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) was the largest instrumentally recorded inland event in South Korea. It occurred in the southeast of the Korean Peninsula and was preceded by a large ML 5.1 foreshock. The aftershock seismicity data indicate that these earthquakes occurred on two closely collocated parallel faults that are oblique to the surface trace of the Yangsan fault. We investigate the rupture properties of these earthquakes using finite-fault slip inversion analyses. The obtained models indicate that the ruptures propagated NNE-ward and SSW-ward for the main shock and the large foreshock, respectively. This indicates that these earthquakes occurred on right-step faults and were initiated around a fault jog. The stress drops were up to 62 and 43 MPa for the main shock and the largest foreshock, respectively. These high stress drops imply high strength excess, which may be overcome by the stress concentration around the fault jog.

Three-dimensional analytical model for the spatial variation of the foreshock electron distribution function - Systematics and comparisons with ISEE observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitzenreiter, R. J.; Scudder, J. D.; Klimas, A. J.

1990-01-01

A model which is consistent with the solar wind and shock surface boundary conditions for the foreshock electron distribution in the absence of wave-particle effects is formulated for an arbitrary location behind the magnetic tangent to the earth's bow shock. Variations of the gyrophase-averaged velocity distribution are compared and contrasted with in situ ISEE observations. It is found that magnetic mirroring of solar wind electrons is the most important process by which nonmonotonic reduced electron distributions in the foreshock are produced. Leakage of particles from the magnetosheath is shown to be relatively unimportant in determining reduced distributions that are nonmonotonic. The two-dimensional distribution function off the magnetic field direction is the crucial contribution in producing reduced distributions which have beams. The time scale for modification of the electron velocity distribution in velocity space can be significantly influenced by steady state spatial gradients in the background imposed by the curved shock geometry.

Formation of the wave compressional boundary in the earth's foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skadron, George; Holdaway, Robert D.; Lee, Martin A.

1988-01-01

Using an evolutionary model and allowing for nonuniform proton injection and wave growth rates, the compressional wave boundaries corresponding to IMF inclinations to the solar wind of theta(BV) equal to 45 and 25 deg were located. The compressional boundaries deduced from this model were found to support the results of Greenstadt and Baum (1986) who have concluded that the observed compressional boundaries are incompatible with wave growth at a fixed growth rate, due to the interaction of a uniform beam with the solar wind. The results indicate, however, that the compressional boundaries are quite compatible with nonuniform beams and growth rates which result from the coupled evolution of the energetic protons and the waves with which they interact. It was found that, in the solar wind frame, the dominant wave-particle interaction in the outer foreshock is the damping of inward propagating (toward the shock) left-polarized waves, producing a magnetically quiet region immediately downstream of the foreshock boundary.

The Kumamoto Mw7.1 mainshock: deep initiation triggered by the shallow foreshocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Q.; Wei, S.

2017-12-01

The Kumamoto Mw7.1 earthquake and its Mw6.2 foreshock struck the central Kyushu region in mid-April, 2016. The surface ruptures are characterized with multiple fault segments and a mix of strike-slip and normal motion extended from the intersection area of Hinagu and Futagawa faults to the southwest of Mt. Aso. Despite complex surface ruptures, most of the finite fault inversions use two fault segments to approximate the fault geometry. To study the rupture process and the complex fault geometry of this earthquake, we performed a multiple point source inversion for the mainshock using the data on 93 K-net and Kik-net stations. With path calibration from the Mw6.0 foreshock, we selected the frequency ranges for the Pnl waves (0.02 0.26 Hz) and surface waves (0.02 0.12 Hz), as well as the components that can be well modeled with the 1D velocity model. Our four-point-source results reveal a unilateral rupture towards Mt. Aso and varying fault geometries. The first sub-event is a high angle ( 79°) right-lateral strike-slip event at the depth of 16 km on the north end of the Hinagu fault. Notably the two M>6 foreshocks is located by our previous studies near the north end of the Hinagu fault at the depth of 5 9 km, which may give rise to the stress concentration at depth. The following three sub-events are distributed along the surface rupture of the Futagawa fault, with focal depths within 4 10 km. Their focal mechanisms present similar right-lateral fault slips with relatively small dip angles (62 67°) and apparent normal-fault component. Thus, the mainshock rupture initiated from the relatively deep part of the Hinagu fault and propagated through the fault-bend toward NE along the relatively shallow part of the Futagawa fault until it was terminated near Mt. Aso. Based on the four-point-source solution, we conducted a finite-fault inversion and obtained a kinematic rupture model of the mainshock. We then performed the Coulomb Stress analyses on the two foreshocks and the mainshock. The results support that the stress alternation after the foreshocks may have triggered the failure on the fault plane of the Mw7.1 earthquake. Therefore, the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence is dominated by a series of large triggering events whose initiation is associated with the geometric barrier in the intersection of the Futagawa and Hinagu faults.

Geodetic characteristic of the postseismic deformation following the interplate large earthquake along the Japan Trench (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohta, Y.; Hino, R.; Ariyoshi, K.; Matsuzawa, T.; Mishina, M.; Sato, T.; Inazu, D.; Ito, Y.; Tachibana, K.; Demachi, T.; Miura, S.

2013-12-01

On March 9, 2011 at 2:45 (UTC), an M7.3 interplate earthquake (hereafter foreshock) occurred ~45 km northeast of the epicenter of the M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake. This foreshock preceded the 2011 Tohoku earthquake by 51 hours. Ohta et al., (2012, GRL) estimated co- and postseismic afterslip distribution based on a dense GPS network and ocean bottom pressure gauge sites. They found the afterslip distribution was mainly concentrated in the up-dip extension of the coseismic slip. The coseismic slip and afterslip distribution of the foreshock were also located in the slip deficit region (between 20-40m slip) of the coiseismic slip of the M9.0 mainshock. The slip amount for the afterslip is roughly consistent with that determined by repeating earthquake analysis carried out in a previous study (Kato et al., 2012, Science). The estimated moment release for the afterslip reached magnitude 6.8, even within a short time period of 51 hours. They also pointed out that a volumetric strainmeter time series suggests that this event advanced with a rapid decay time constant (4.8 h) compared with other typical large earthquakes. The decay time constant of the afterslip may reflect the frictional property of the plate interface, especially effective normal stress controlled by fluid. For verification of the short decay time constant of the foreshock, we investigated the postseismic deformation characteristic following the 1989 and 1992 Sanriku-Oki earthquakes (M7.1 and M6.9), 2003 and 2005 Miyagi-Oki earthquakes (M6.8 and M7.2), and 2008 Fukushima-Oki earthquake (M6.9). We used four components extensometer at Miyako (39.59N, 141.98E) on the Sanriku coast for 1989 and 1992 event. For 2003, 2005 and 2008 events, we used volumetric strainmeter at Kinka-zan (38.27N, 141.58E) and Enoshima (38.27N, 141.60E). To extract the characteristics of the postseismic deformation, we fitted the logarithmic function. The estimated decay time constants for each earthquake had almost similar range (1-15 h) with the foreshock of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (4.8h), but relatively small compared with the typical interplate earthquakes. The comparison of decay time constant with other typical large interplate earthquakes is very difficult because of difference in the observation sensors such as GPS and strainmeter. In any case, decay time constant of postseismic deformation for the foreshock of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake is not anomalous compared with other events in this region.

Remote radio observations of solar wind parameters upstream of planetary bow shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macdowall, R. J.; Stone, R. G.; Gaffey, J. D., Jr.

1992-01-01

Radio emission is frequently produced at twice the electron plasma frequency 2fp in the foreshock region upstream of the terrestrial bow shock. Observations of this emission provide a remote diagnostic of solar wind parameters in the foreshock. Using ISEE-3 radio data, we present the first evidence that the radio intensity is proportional to the kinetic energy flux and to other parameters correlated with solar wind density. We provide a qualitative explanation of this intensity behavior and predict the detection of similar emission at Jupiter by the Ulysses spacecraft.

Simulations relevant to the beam instability in the foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, I. H.; Nishikawa, K.-I.

1989-01-01

The results presently obtained from two-dimensional simulations of the reactive instability for Maxwellian beams and cutoff distributions are noted to be consistent with recent suggestions that electrons backstreaming into earth's foreshock have steep-sided cutoff distributions, which are initially unstable to the reactive instability, and that the back-reaction to the wave growth causes the instability to pass into its kinetic phase. It is demonstrated that the reactive instability is a bunching instability, and that the reactive instability saturates and passes over into the kinetic phase by particle trapping.

Co- and postseismic slip distribution for the 2011 March 9 earthquake based on the geodetic data: Role on the initiation of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohta, Y.; Hino, R.; Inazu, D.; Ohzono, M.; Mishina, M.; Nakajima, J.; Ito, Y.; Sato, T.; Tamura, Y.; Fujimoto, H.; Tachibana, K.; Demachi, T.; Osada, Y.; Shinohara, M.; Miura, S.

2012-04-01

A large foreshock with M7.3 occurred on March 9, 2011 at the subducting Pacific plate interface followed by the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake 51 hours later. We propose a slip distribution of the foreshock deduced from dense inland GPS sites and Ocean Bottom Pressure gauge (OBP) sites. The multiple OBP gauges were installed before the M7.3 foreshock in and around the focal area. We succeed to collect the OBP gauge data in 9 sites, which included two cabled OBPs in off Kamaishi (TM1, TM2). The inland GPS horizontal coseismic displacements are estimated based on baseline analyses to show the broad area of displacement field up to ~30mm directing to the focal area. In contrast, there is no coherent signal in the vertical components. The several OBP sites, for example, P2 and P6 sites located the westward from the epicenter of the foreshock clearly detected the coseismic displacement. The estimated coseismic displacement reached more than 100mm in P6 sites. Intriguingly, GJT3 sites, which the most nearly OBP sites from the epicenter, did not show the significant displacement. Based on the inland GPS sites and OBPs data, we estimated a coseismic slip distribution in the subducting plate interface. The estimated slip distribution can explain observations including the vertical displacement obtained at the OBP sites. The amount of moment release is equivalent to Mw 7.2. The spatio-temporal aftershock distribution of the foreshock shows a southward migration from our estimated fault model. We suggest that aseismic slip occurred after the M7.3 earthquake. The onshore GPS data also supports the occurrence of the afterslip in the southwestward area of the coseismic fault. We estimated the sub-daily coordinates every three hours at the several coastal GPS sites to reveal the time evolutional sequences suggesting the postseismic deformation, especially in the horizontal components. We also examine volumetric strain data at Kinka-san Island, which is situated at the closest distance from the hypocenter. The time series also clearly show the postseismic signal after the M7.3 earthquake. The both of strain meter and GPS time series did not show any acceleration expected as a nucleation process of the M9.0 event; rather, both time series show deceleration of the postseismic deformation before the M9.0 event, even for only two days after the M7.3 earthquake. The OBPs data also indicated the postseismic deformation after the foreshock until the M9 mainshock. Based on the GPS and OBPs data, we estimated the afterslip distribution. The estimated slip distribution is located the southeastern part of the foreshock coseismic distribution. We suggest that aftershocks of the March 9 event may have been caused by stress concentrations along the edge of the afterslip. One of these aftershocks may trigger the huge M 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, although more investigations are required to confirm this scenario.

3-D dynamic rupture simulations of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Yumi; Yoshida, Keisuke; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Kubo, Hisahiko

2017-11-01

Using 3-D dynamic rupture simulations, we investigated the 2016 Mw7.1 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake to elucidate why and how the rupture of the main shock propagated successfully, assuming a complicated fault geometry estimated on the basis of the distributions of the aftershocks. The Mw7.1 main shock occurred along the Futagawa and Hinagu faults. Within 28 h before the main shock, three M6-class foreshocks occurred. Their hypocenters were located along the Hinagu and Futagawa faults, and their focal mechanisms were similar to that of the main shock. Therefore, an extensive stress shadow should have been generated on the fault plane of the main shock. First, we estimated the geometry of the fault planes of the three foreshocks as well as that of the main shock based on the temporal evolution of the relocated aftershock hypocenters. We then evaluated the static stress changes on the main shock fault plane that were due to the occurrence of the three foreshocks, assuming elliptical cracks with constant stress drops on the estimated fault planes. The obtained static stress change distribution indicated that Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) was positive just below the hypocenter of the main shock, while the ΔCFS in the shallow region above the hypocenter was negative. Therefore, these foreshocks could encourage the initiation of the main shock rupture and could hinder the propagation of the rupture toward the shallow region. Finally, we conducted 3-D dynamic rupture simulations of the main shock using the initial stress distribution, which was the sum of the static stress changes caused by these foreshocks and the regional stress field. Assuming a slip-weakening law with uniform friction parameters, we computed 3-D dynamic rupture by varying the friction parameters and the values of the principal stresses. We obtained feasible parameter ranges that could reproduce the characteristic features of the main shock rupture revealed by seismic waveform analyses. We also observed that the free surface encouraged the slip evolution of the main shock.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Foreshocks during the nucleation of stick-slip instability

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.

2013-01-01

We report on laboratory experiments which investigate interactions between aseismic slip, stress changes, and seismicity on a critically stressed fault during the nucleation of stick-slip instability. We monitor quasi-static and dynamic changes in local shear stress and fault slip with arrays of gages deployed along a simulated strike-slip fault (2 m long and 0.4 m deep) in a saw cut sample of Sierra White granite. With 14 piezoelectric sensors, we simultaneously monitor seismic signals produced during the nucleation phase and subsequent dynamic rupture. We observe localized aseismic fault slip in an approximately meter-sized zone in the center of the fault, while the ends of the fault remain locked. Clusters of high-frequency foreshocks (Mw ~ −6.5 to −5.0) can occur in this slowly slipping zone 5–50 ms prior to the initiation of dynamic rupture; their occurrence appears to be dependent on the rate at which local shear stress is applied to the fault. The meter-sized nucleation zone is generally consistent with theoretical estimates, but source radii of the foreshocks (2 to 70 mm) are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the theoretical minimum length scale over which earthquake nucleation can occur. We propose that frictional stability and the transition between seismic and aseismic slip are modulated by local stressing rate and that fault sections, which would typically slip aseismically, may radiate seismic waves if they are rapidly stressed. Fault behavior of this type may provide physical insight into the mechanics of foreshocks, tremor, repeating earthquake sequences, and a minimum earthquake source dimension.

Multipoint study of interplanetary shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanco-Cano, Xochitl; Kajdic, Primoz; Russell, Christopher T.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, Ernesto; Jian, Lan K.; Luhmann, Janet G.

2016-04-01

Interplanetary (IP) shocks are driven in the heliosphere by Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs). These shocks perturb the solar wind plasma, and play an active role in the acceleration of ions to suprathermal energies. Shock fronts evolve as they move from the Sun. Their surfaces can be far from uniform and be modulated by changes in the ambient solar wind (magnetic field orientation, flow velocity), shocks rippling, and perturbations upstream and downstream from the shocks, i.e., electromagnetic waves. In this work we use multipoint observations from STEREO, WIND, and MESSENGER missions to study shock characteristics at different helio-longitudes and determine the properties of the waves near them. We also determine shock longitudinal extensions and foreshock sizes. The variations of geometry along the shock surface can result in different extensions of the wave and ion foreshocks ahead of the shocks, and in different wave modes upstream and downtream of the shocks. We find that the ion foreshock can extend up to 0.2 AU ahead of the shock, and that the upstream region with modified solar wind/waves can be very asymmetric.

Outer heliospheric radio emissions. II - Foreshock source models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Kurth, William S.; Gurnett, Donald A.

1992-01-01

Observations of LF radio emissions in the range 2-3 kHz by the Voyager spacecraft during the intervals 1983-1987 and 1989 to the present while at heliocentric distances greater than 11 AU are reported. New analyses of the wave data are presented, and the characteristics of the radiation are reviewed and discussed. Two classes of events are distinguished: transient events with varying starting frequencies that drift upward in frequency and a relatively continuous component that remains near 2 kHz. Evidence for multiple transient sources and for extension of the 2-kHz component above the 2.4-kHz interference signal is presented. The transient emissions are interpreted in terms of radiation generated at multiples of the plasma frequency when solar wind density enhancements enter one or more regions of a foreshock sunward of the inner heliospheric shock. Solar wind density enhancements by factors of 4-10 are observed. Propagation effects, the number of radiation sources, and the time variability, frequency drift, and varying starting frequencies of the transient events are discussed in terms of foreshock sources.

Short Large-Amplitude Magnetic Structures (SLAMS) at Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collinson, G. A.; Wilson, L. B.; Sibeck, D. G.; Shane, N.; Zhang, T. L.; Moore, T. E.; Coates, A. J.; Barabash, S.

2012-01-01

We present the first observation of magnetic fluctuations consistent with Short Large-Amplitude Magnetic Structures (SLAMS) in the foreshock of the planet Venus. Three monolithic magnetic field spikes were observed by the Venus Express on the 11th of April 2009. The structures were approx.1.5->11s in duration, had magnetic compression ratios between approx.3->6, and exhibited elliptical polarization. These characteristics are consistent with the SLAMS observed at Earth, Jupiter, and Comet Giacobini-Zinner, and thus we hypothesize that it is possible SLAMS may be found at any celestial body with a foreshock.

Nonlinear low frequency (LF) waves - Comets and foreshock phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsurutani, Bruce T.

1991-01-01

A review is conducted of LF wave nonlinear properties at comets and in the earth's foreshock, engaging such compelling questions as why there are no cometary cyclotron waves, the physical mechanism responsible for 'dispersive whiskers', and the character of a general description of linear waves. Attention is given to the nonlinear properties of LF waves, whose development is illustrated by examples of waves and their features at different distances from the comet, as well as by computer simulation results. Also discussed is a curious wave mode detected from Comet Giacobini-Zinner, both at and upstream of the bow shock/wave.

Quasi-monochromatic ULF foreshock waves as observed by the four-spacecraft Cluster mission: 2. Oblique propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eastwood, J. P.; Balogh, A.; Lucek, E. A.; Mazelle, C.; Dandouras, I.

2005-11-01

This paper presents the results of a statistical investigation into the nature of oblique wave propagation in the foreshock. Observations have shown that foreshock ULF waves tend to propagate obliquely to the background magnetic field. This is in contrast to theoretical work, which predicts that the growth rate of the mechanism responsible for the waves is maximized for parallel propagation, at least in the linear regime in homogenous plasma. Here we use data from the Cluster mission to study in detail the oblique propagation of a particular class of foreshock ULF wave, the 30 s quasi-monochromatic wave. We find that these waves persistently propagate at oblique angles to the magnetic field. Over the whole data set, the average value of θkB was found to be 21 ± 14°. Oblique propagation is observed even when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) cone angle is small, such that the convective component of the solar wind velocity, vE×B, is comparable to the wave speed. In this subset of the data, the mean value of θkB was 12.9 ± 7.1°. In the subset of data for which the IMF cone angle exceeded 45°, the mean value of θkB was 19.5 ± 10.7°. When the angle between the IMF and the x geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE) direction (i.e., the solar wind vector) is large, the wave k vectors tend to be confined in the plane defined by the x GSE direction and the magnetic field and a systematic deflection is observed. The dependence of θkB on vE×B is also studied.

Volumetric Studies of Earth's Electron Foreshock Using PEACE Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, Melvyn L.; Gurgiolo, Chris; Fazakersley, Andrew

2010-01-01

We describe the methodology used to set up and compute spatial derivatives of the electron moments using data acquired by the Plasma Electron And Current Experiment (PEACE) electron data from the four Cluster spacecraft. The results are used to investigate electron vorticity in the foreshock. What is found is that much of the measured vorticity, under nominal conditions, appears to be caused by changes in the flow direction of the return (either reflected or leakage from the magnetosheath) and strahl electron populations as they couple to changes in the magnetic field orientation. This in turn results in deflections in the total bulk velocity.

Simulation studies of plasma waves in the electron foreshock - The transition from reactive to kinetic instability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dum, C. T.

1990-01-01

Particle simulation experiments were used to analyze the electron beam-plasma instability. It is shown that there is a transition from the reactive state of the electron beam-plasma instability to the kinetic instability of Langmuir waves. Quantitative tests, which include an evaluation of the dispersion relation for the evolving non-Maxwellian beam distribution, show that a quasi-linear theory describes the onset of this transition and applies again fully to the kinetic stage. This stage is practically identical to the late stage seen in simulations of plasma waves in the electron foreshock described by Dum (1990).

Proton beam generation of whistler waves in the earth's foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, H. K.; Goldstein, M. L.

1987-01-01

It is shown that proton beams, often observed upstream of the earth's bow shock and associated with the generation of low-frequency hydromagnetic fluctuations, are also capable of generating whistler waves. The waves can be excited by an instability driven by two-temperature streaming Maxwellian proton distributions which have T (perpendicular)/T(parallel) much greater than 1. It can also be excited by gyrating proton beam distributions. These distributions generate whistler waves with frequencies ranging from 10 to 100 times the proton cyclotron frequency (in the solar wind reference frame) and provide another mechanism for generating the '1-Hz' waves often seen in the earth's foreshock.

Martian electron foreshock from MAVEN observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meziane, K.; Mazelle, C. X.; Romanelli, N.; Mitchell, D. L.; Espley, J. R.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Hamza, A. M.; Halekas, J.; McFadden, J. P.; Jakosky, B. M.

2017-02-01

Flux enhancements of energetic electrons are always observed when the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft is magnetically connected to the shock. The observations indicate that the foreshock electrons consist of two populations. The most energetic (E≥237 eV) originate from a narrow region at the nearly perpendicular shock. They always appear as spikes, and their flux level reaches a maximum when the angle θBn approaches 90°. The other population emanates from the entire Martian bow shock surface, and the flux level decreases slightly from the quasi-parallel to quasi-perpendicular regions. A detailed examination of the pitch angle distribution shows that the enhanced fluxes are associated with electrons moving sunward. Annulus centered along the interplanetary magnetic field direction is the most stringent feature of the 3-D angular distribution. The gyrotropic character is observed over the whole range of shock geometry. Although such signatures in the electron pitch angle distribution function strongly suggest that the reflection off the shock of a fraction of the solar wind electrons is the main mechanism for the production of Martian foreshock electrons, the decay of the flux of the second population on the other hand has yet to be understood.

Magnetosphere on May 11, 1999, the day the solar wind almost disappeared: II. Magnetic pulsations in space and on the ground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, G.; Chi, P. J.; Goedecke, W.; Russell, C. T.; Szabo, A.; Petrinec, S. M.; Angelopoulos, V.; Reeves, G. D.; Chun, F. K.

2000-08-01

Simultaneous observations by Wind and IMP-8 in the upstream region on May 11, 1999, when the solar wind density was well below its usual values and the IMF was generally weakly northward, indicate there were upstream waves present in the foreshock, but wave power was an order of magnitude weaker than usual due to an extremely weak bow shock and tenuous solar wind plasma. Magnetic pulsations in the magnetosphere have been observed in the magnetic field data from Polar and at mid-latitude ground stations. By comparing May 11 with a control day under normal solar wind conditions and with a similar foreshock geometry, we find that the magnetosphere was much quieter than usual. The Pc 3-4 waves were nearly absent in the dayside magnetosphere both at Polar and as seen at mid-latitude ground stations even through the foreshock geometry was favorable for the generation of these waves. Since the solar wind speed was not unusual on this day, these observations suggest that it is the Mach number of the solar wind flow relative to the magnetosphere that controls the amplitude of Pc 3-4 waves in the magnetosphere.

Spontaneous Hot Flow Anomalies at Quasi-Parallel Shocks: 2. Hybrid Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Omidi, N.; Zhang, H.; Sibeck, D.; Turner, D.

2013-01-01

Motivated by recent THEMIS observations, this paper uses 2.5-D electromagnetic hybrid simulations to investigate the formation of Spontaneous Hot Flow Anomalies (SHFA) upstream of quasi-parallel bow shocks during steady solar wind conditions and in the absence of discontinuities. The results show the formation of a large number of structures along and upstream of the quasi-parallel bow shock. Their outer edges exhibit density and magnetic field enhancements, while their cores exhibit drops in density, magnetic field, solar wind velocity and enhancements in ion temperature. Using virtual spacecraft in the simulation, we show that the signatures of these structures in the time series data are very similar to those of SHFAs seen in THEMIS data and conclude that they correspond to SHFAs. Examination of the simulation data shows that SHFAs form as the result of foreshock cavitons interacting with the bow shock. Foreshock cavitons in turn form due to the nonlinear evolution of ULF waves generated by the interaction of the solar wind with the backstreaming ions. Because foreshock cavitons are an inherent part of the shock dissipation process, the formation of SHFAs is also an inherent part of the dissipation process leading to a highly non-uniform plasma in the quasi-parallel magnetosheath including large scale density and magnetic field cavities.

The Quasi-monochromatic ULF Wave Boundary in the Venusian Foreshock: Venus Express Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Lican; Mazelle, Christian; Meziane, Karim; Romanelli, Norberto; Ge, Yasong S.; Du, Aimin; Lu, Quanming; Zhang, Tielong

2018-01-01

The location of ultralow-frequency (ULF) quasi-monochromatic wave onset upstream of Venus bow shock is explored using Venus Express magnetic field data. We report the existence of a spatial foreshock boundary behind which ULF waves are present. We have found that the ULF wave boundary at Venus is sensitive to the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) direction like the terrestrial one and appears well defined for a cone angle larger than 30°. In the Venusian foreshock, the inclination angle of the wave boundary with respect to the Sun-Venus direction increases with the IMF cone angle. We also found that for the IMF nominal direction (θBX = 36°) at Venus' orbit, the value of this inclination angle is 70°. Moreover, we have found that the inferred velocity of an ion traveling along the ULF boundary is in a qualitative agreement with a quasi-adiabatic reflection of a portion of the solar wind at the bow shock. For an IMF nominal direction at Venus, the inferred bulk speed of ions traveling along this boundary is 1.07 VSW, sufficiently enough to overcome the solar wind convection. This strongly suggests that the backstreaming ions upstream of the Venusian bow shock provide the main energy source for the ULF waves.

Effect of upstream ULF waves on the energetic ion diffusion at the earth's foreshock: Theory, Simulation, and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otsuka, F.; Matsukiyo, S.; Kis, A.; Hada, T.

2017-12-01

Spatial diffusion of energetic particles is an important problem not only from a fundamental physics point of view but also for its application to particle acceleration processes at astrophysical shocks. Quasi-linear theory can provide the spatial diffusion coefficient as a function of the wave turbulence spectrum. By assuming a simple power-law spectrum for the turbulence, the theory has been successfully applied to diffusion and acceleration of cosmic rays in the interplanetary and interstellar medium. Near the earth's foreshock, however, the wave spectrum often has an intense peak, presumably corresponding to the upstream ULF waves generated by the field-aligned beam (FAB). In this presentation, we numerically and theoretically discuss how the intense ULF peak in the wave spectrum modifies the spatial parallel diffusion of energetic ions. The turbulence is given as a superposition of non-propagating transverse MHD waves in the solar wind rest frame, and its spectrum is composed of a piecewise power-law spectrum with different power-law indices. The diffusion coefficients are then estimated by using the quasi-linear theory and test particle simulations. We find that the presence of the ULF peak produces a concave shape of the diffusion coefficient when it is plotted versus the ion energy. The results above are used to discuss the Cluster observations of the diffuse ions at the Earth's foreshock. Using the density gradients of the energetic ions detected by the Cluster spacecraft, we determine the e-folding distances, equivalently, the spatial diffusion coefficients, of ions with their energies from 10 to 32 keV. The observed e-folding distances are significantly smaller than those estimated in the past statistical studies. This suggests that the particle acceleration at the foreshock can be more efficient than considered before. Our test particle simulation explains well the small estimate of the e-folding distances, by using the observed wave turbulence spectrum near the shock.

Seafloor seismological/geodetic observations in the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hino, Ryota; Shinohara, Masanao; Ito, Yoshihiro

2016-04-01

A number of important aspects of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (Mw 9.0) were clarified by the seafloor seismological and geodetic observation above the rupture area of the earthquake. Besides the extraordinarily large coseismic displacements, various kinds of slow slip phenomena associated with intensive micro-seismicity on the plate boundary fault were identified by near field ocean bottom seismographs and seafloor geodetic observation networks. The Tohoku-oki earthquake was preceded by evident foreshock activity with a spatial expansion of this seismicity. The activity became significantly intense after the occurrence of the largest foreshock two days before the mainshock rupture. During the period, clear continuous seafloor deformation was identified caused by the aseismic slip following the largest foreshock. Another different type of aseismic slip event had occurred before this pre-imminent activity had started about a month before the largest foreshock happened. The observed increased seismicity associated with aseismic slip suggests that there must have been some chain reaction like interplay of seismic and interseismic slips before the large earthquake broke out. However, no evident deformation signals were observed indicating acceleration of fault slip immediately before the mainshock. Seafloor geodetic measurements reveals that the postseismic deformation around the rupture area of the Tohoku-oki earthquake shows complex spatial pattern and the complexity is mostly due to significant viscoelastic relaxation induced by the huge coseismic slip. The effects of viscoelastic deformation makes it difficult to identify the deformation associated with the after slip or regaining of interplate coupling and requires us to enhance the abilities of seafloor monitoring to detect the slip activities on the fault. We started an array of seismometer arrays observation including broad-band seismographs to detect and locate slow-slip events and low-frequency tremors. Another observation we started is direct-path acoustic ranging across the trench axis. Slip rate of the shallow fault can be measured by monitoring the change in distance between the benchmarks on the incoming and overrding plates.

Ocean bottom pressure observations near the source of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inazu, D.; Hino, R.; Suzuki, S.; Osada, Y.; Ohta, Y.; Iinuma, T.; Tsushima, H.; Ito, Y.; Kido, M.; Fujimoto, H.

2011-12-01

A Mw9.0 earthquake occurred off Miyagi, northeast Japan, on 11 March 2011 (hereafter mainshock). An earthquake of M7.3, considered to be the largest foreshock of the mainshock, occurred on 9 March 2011 near the mainshock hypocenter. A suite of seismic and geodetic variations related to these earthquakes was observed by autonomous, ocean bottom pressure (OBP) gauges at multiple sites (4 sites at present) near the sources within a distance of about 100 km. This paper presents the OBP records with a focus on the earthquakes. Thanks to correcting tides, instrumental drifts, and non-tidal oceanic variations, we can detect OBP signals of tsunamis and vertical seafloor deformation of the order of centimeters with timescales of less than months. In the following we review the detected signals and how to correct the OBP data. The coseismic seafloor displacement and the tsunami accompanied by the mainshock were of the order of meters and large enough to be distinctly identified (Ito et al., 2011, GRL). Co- and post-seismic seafloor displacement and tsunami accompanied by the foreshock were of the order of centimeters which is difficult to be identified from the raw OBP records. The first evident pulses of these tsunamis in the deep sea have durations (periods) of ~20 minutes and ~10 minutes, for the mainshock and the foreshock, respectively. Amounts of seafloor vertical displacement due to post-mainshock deformation reached a few tens of centimeters in two months. It is worth noting that elevation and depression of seafloor were detected at rates of a couple of centimeters in a day after the largest foreshock. The seafloor displacement of centimeters between the largest foreshock and the mainshock can be reasonably identified after correcting non-tidal oceanic variations. The oceanic variations are simulated by a barotropic ocean model driven by atmospheric disturbances (Inazu et al., 2011, Ann. Rep. Earth Simulator Center 2011). The model enables residual OBP time series of non-tidal oceanic variations off Miyagi to be reduced by less than 2 cm. In order to accurately detect signals of centimeters, detiding had better be carefully done analyzing in-situ data rather than using existing ocean tide models such as NAO.99Jb and FES2004. A BAYTAP-G program was used in the present study. Instrumental drifts are modeled by a popularly used, linear and exponential form (Watts and Kontoyiannis, 1990, J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech.). Seismological interpretations of the detected OBP signals of the seafloor displacement and the tsunamis will be demonstrated in the separate papers presented in this meeting.

Artificial seismic acceleration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felzer, Karen R.; Page, Morgan T.; Michael, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

In their 2013 paper, Bouchon, Durand, Marsan, Karabulut, 3 and Schmittbuhl (BDMKS) claim to see significant accelerating seismicity before M 6.5 interplate mainshocks, but not before intraplate mainshocks, reflecting a preparatory process before large events. We concur with the finding of BDMKS that their interplate dataset has significantly more fore- shocks than their intraplate dataset; however, we disagree that the foreshocks are predictive of large events in particular. Acceleration in stacked foreshock sequences has been seen before and has been explained by the cascade model, in which earthquakes occasionally trigger aftershocks larger than themselves4. In this model, the time lags between the smaller mainshocks and larger aftershocks follow the inverse power law common to all aftershock sequences, creating an apparent acceleration when stacked (see Supplementary Information).

Statistical short-term earthquake prediction.

PubMed

Kagan, Y Y; Knopoff, L

1987-06-19

A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 in central California can be predicted in this way, starting from a 7-year database that has a lower magnitude cut off of 1.5. The time scale of such predictions is of the order of a few hours to a few days for foreshocks in the magnitude range from 2.0 to 5.0.

Ion distributions in the Earth's foreshock upstream from the bow shock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuselier, S. A.

1995-01-01

A variety of suprathermal and energetic ion distributions are found upstream from shocks. Some distributions, such as field-aligned beams, are generated directly at the shock either through reflection processes or through leakage from the hotter downstream region. Other distributions, such as intermediate distributions, evolve from these parent distributions through wave-particle interactions. This paper reviews our current understanding of the creation and evolution of suprathermal distributions at shocks. Examples of suprathermal ion distributions are taken from observations at the Earth's bow shock. Particular emphasis is placed on the creation of field-aligned beams and specularly reflected ion distributions and on the evolution of these distributions in the Earth's ion foreshock. However, the results from this heavily studied region are applicable to interplanetary shocks, bow shocks at other planets, and comets.

Nonlinear Waves in the Terrestrial Quasiparallel Foreshock.

PubMed

Hnat, B; Kolotkov, D Y; O'Connell, D; Nakariakov, V M; Rowlands, G

2016-12-02

We provide strongly conclusive evidence that the cubic nonlinearity plays an important part in the evolution of the large amplitude magnetic structures in the terrestrial foreshock. Large amplitude nonlinear wave trains at frequencies above the proton cyclotron frequency are identified after nonharmonic slow variations are filtered out by applying the empirical mode decomposition. Numerical solutions of the derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation, predicted analytically by the use of a pseudopotential approach, are found to be consistent with the observed wave forms. The approximate phase speed of these nonlinear waves, indicated by the parameters of numerical solutions, is of the order of the local Alfvén speed. We suggest that the feedback of the large amplitude fluctuations on background plasma is reflected in the evolution of the pseudopotential.

A study of the coherence length of ULF waves in the earth's foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, G.; Russell, C. T.

1990-01-01

High-time-resolution magnetic-field data for different separations of ISEE 1 and 2 in the earth's ion foreshock region are examined to study the coherence length of upstream ULF waves. Examining the correlation coefficients of the low-frequency waves as a function of separation distance shows that the correlation coefficient depends mainly on the separation distance of ISEE 1 and 2 transverse to the solar-wind flow. It drops to about 0.5 when the transverse separation is about 1 earth radius, a distance much larger than the proton thermal gyroradius in the solar wind. Thus the coherence length of the low-frequency waves is about one earth radius, which is of the order of the wavelength, and is consistent with that estimated from the bandwidth of the waves.

Fine structure in plasma waves and radiation near the plasma frequency in Earth's foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.

1994-01-01

Novel observations are presented of intrunsic fine structure in the frequency spectrum of electomagnetic (EM) radiation and plasma waves near the electron plasma frequency f(sub p) during a period of unusually high interplanetary magnetic field strength. Measured using the wideband receiver on the International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 1 spacecraft, fine-structured emissions are observed both in the solar wind and the foreshock, The fine structure is shown to correspond to emissions spaced above f(sub p) near half harmonies of the electon cyclotron frequency f(sub ce), i.e., near f(sub p) + nf(sub ce)/2. These appear to be the first space physics observations of emissions spaced by f(sub ce)/2. Indirect but strong arguments are used to discriminate between EM and electrostatic (ES) signals, to identify whether ISEE 1 is in the solar wind or the foreshock, and to determine the relative frequencies of the emissions and the local f(sub p). The data are consistent with generation of the ES and EM emissions in the foreshock, with subsequent propagation of the EM emissions into the solar wind. It remains possible that some emissions currently identified as ES have significant EM character. The ES and EM emisions often merge into one another with minimal changes in frequency, arguing that their source regions and generation mechanisms are related and imposing significant constraints on theories. The f(sub ce)/2 ES and EM fine structures observed may be intrinsic to the emission mechanisms or to superposition of two series of signals with f(sub ce) spacing that differ in starting frequency by f(sub ce)/2. Present theories for nonlinear wave coupling processes, cyclotron maser emission, and other linear instability processes are all unable to explain multiple EM and/or ES components spaced by approximately f(sub ce)/2 above f(sub p) for f(sub p)/f(sub ce) much greater than 1 and typical for shock beams parameters. Suitable avenues for further theoretical research are identified. Empirically, the observed fine structures appear very similar to those in split bnad and multiple-lane type II solar radio bursts; interpretation of both these type II fine structures in terms of f(sub ce)/2 splitting is suggested, thereby supporting and generalizing a suggestion by Wild (1950). A possible application to continuum radiation is mentioned. The ubiquity of these fine structures in the Earth's f(sub p) radiation and foreshock waves remains unknown. Only the ISEE 1 wideband receiver has sufficient frequency resolution (approximately less than or equal to 100 Hz) to perform a dedicated search. Further study of the ubiquity of these fine structures, of how reliably the splitting corresponds to f(sub ce)/2, and of the other interpretations above is necessary.

Dual megathrust slip behaviors of the 2014 Iquique earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Lingsen; Huang, Hui; Bürgmann, Roland; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Strader, Anne

2015-02-01

The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of northern Chile. This event was preceded by a long foreshock sequence including a 2-week-long migration of seismicity initiated by a Mw 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes were found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock hypocenter, suggesting a large-scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence times of the repeating earthquakes highlight the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while repeaters that occurred both before and after the mainshock were in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatiotemporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrates the essential role of propagating aseismic slip leading up to the mainshock and illuminates the distribution of postseismic afterslip. Various finite fault models indicate that the largest coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show an emergent onset of moment rate at low frequency (< 0.1 Hz), while back-projection shows a steady increase of high frequency power (> 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the rupture expands in rich bursts along the rim of a semi-elliptical region with episodes of re-ruptures, suggesting delayed failure of asperities. The high-frequency rupture remains within an area of local high trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), suggesting the presence of subducting seamounts that promote high-frequency generation. Our results highlight the complexity of the interactions between large-scale aseismic slow-slip and dynamic ruptures of megathrust earthquakes.

Detection of earthquake swarms at subduction zones globally: Insights into tectonic controls on swarm activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishikawa, T.; Ide, S.

2017-07-01

Earthquake swarms are characterized by an increase in seismicity rate that lacks a distinguished main shock and does not obey Omori's law. At subduction zones, they are thought to be related to slow-slip events (SSEs) on the plate interface. Earthquake swarms in subduction zones can therefore be used as potential indicators of slow-slip events. However, the global distribution of earthquake swarms at subduction zones remains unclear. Here we present a method for detecting such earthquake sequences using the space-time epidemic-type aftershock-sequence model. We applied this method to seismicity (M ≥ 4.5) recorded in the Advanced National Seismic System catalog at subduction zones during the period of 1995-2009. We detected 453 swarms, which is about 6.7 times the number observed in a previous catalog. Foreshocks of some large earthquakes are also detected as earthquake swarms. In some subduction zones, such as at Ibaraki-Oki, Japan, swarm-like foreshocks and ordinary swarms repeatedly occur at the same location. Given that both foreshocks and swarms are related to SSEs on the plate interface, these regions may have experienced recurring SSEs. We then compare the swarm activity and tectonic properties of subduction zones, finding that swarm activity is positively correlated with curvature of the incoming plate before subduction. This result implies that swarm activity is controlled either by hydration of the incoming plate or by heterogeneity on the plate interface due to fracturing related to slab bending.

Faulting Parameters of the January 16, 1994 Wyomissing Hills, Pennsylvania Earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ammon, C.J.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Langston, C.A.; Benz, H.

1998-01-01

Two events dominated the January 1994, Wyomissing, PA earthquake sequence, an Mw 4.0 foreshock, followed by an Mw 4.6 mainshock. We modeled regional waveforms to estimate the event depth and the moment tensors for the two largest events in the sequence, and examine teleseismic wave-forms recorded on the ARCESS short-period seismic array to estimate the depth and source time function of the mainshock. Our data constrain the depth of the events to be shallower than 5 km, and prefer a depth of 3-5 km. For an assumed depth of 3 km, the mainshock moment tensor is 75% double couple, with (the major double couple) planes striking at 135??N, 347??N, dips of 49??, 46??, and rakes of 68??, 114??. The estimated moment is 8.9 ?? 1022 dyne-cm. The P axis strikes 241??N and plunges 2??, the Tension axis strikes 336??N and plunges 73??. The foreshock inversion results are virtually identical to the mainshock results; for a source depth of three km, we find a major double couple with a strike, dip, and rake of 121??N, 60??, and 66??, respectively. The seismic moment for the foreshock is 1.2 ?? 1022 dyne-cm, which is approximately 13% of the mainshock moment release. These events did not excite high-frequency Lg waves as effectively as typical eastern North American events, and the mainshock had a stress drop in the range of 25-50 bars.

Depth dependence of earthquake frequency-magnitude distributions in California: Implications for rupture initiation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mori, J.; Abercrombie, R.E.

1997-01-01

Statistics of earthquakes in California show linear frequency-magnitude relationships in the range of M2.0 to M5.5 for various data sets. Assuming Gutenberg-Richter distributions, there is a systematic decrease in b value with increasing depth of earthquakes. We find consistent results for various data sets from northern and southern California that both include and exclude the larger aftershock sequences. We suggest that at shallow depth (???0 to 6 km) conditions with more heterogeneous material properties and lower lithospheric stress prevail. Rupture initiations are more likely to stop before growing into large earthquakes, producing relatively more smaller earthquakes and consequently higher b values. These ideas help to explain the depth-dependent observations of foreshocks in the western United States. The higher occurrence rate of foreshocks preceding shallow earthquakes can be interpreted in terms of rupture initiations that are stopped before growing into the mainshock. At greater depth (9-15 km), any rupture initiation is more likely to continue growing into a larger event, so there are fewer foreshocks. If one assumes that frequency-magnitude statistics can be used to estimate probabilities of a small rupture initiation growing into a larger earthquake, then a small (M2) rupture initiation at 9 to 12 km depth is 18 times more likely to grow into a M5.5 or larger event, compared to the same small rupture initiation at 0 to 3 km. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

Far-field triggering of foreshocks near the nucleation zone of the 5 September 2012 (MW 7.6) Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, Jacob I.; Meng, Xiaofeng; Peng, Zhigang; Schwartz, Susan Y.; Newman, Andrew V.; Protti, Marino

2015-12-01

On 5 September 2012, a moment magnitude (MW) 7.6 earthquake occurred directly beneath the Nicoya Peninsula, an area with dense seismic and geodetic network coverage. The mainshock ruptured a portion of a previously identified locked patch that was recognized due to a decade-long effort to delineate the megathrust seismic and aseismic processes in this area. Here we conduct a comprehensive study of the seismicity prior to this event utilizing a matched-filter analysis that allows us to decrease the magnitude of catalog completeness by 1 unit. We observe a statistically significant increase in seismicity rate below the Nicoya Peninsula following the 27 August 2012 (MW 7.3) El Salvador earthquake (about 450 km to the northwest and 9 days prior to the Nicoya earthquake). Additionally, we identify a cluster of small-magnitude (<2.2) earthquakes preceding the mainshock by about 35 min and within 15 km of its hypocenter. The immediate foreshock sequence occurred in the same area as those earthquakes triggered shortly after the El Salvador event; though it is not clear whether the effect of triggering from the El Salvador event persisted until the foreshock sequence given the uncertainties in seismicity rates from a relatively small number of earthquakes. If megathrust earthquakes at such distances can induce significant increases in seismicity during the days before another larger event, this sequence strengthens the need for real-time seismicity monitoring for large earthquake forecasting.

Laboratory studies of frictional sliding and the implications of precursory seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvadurai, Paul A.

The dynamic transition from slow to rapid sliding along a frictional interface is of interest to geophysicists, engineers and scientists alike. In our direct shear experiment, we simulated a pre-existing frictional fault similar to those occurring naturally in the Earth. The laboratory study reported here has incorporated appropriate sensors that can detect foreshock events on the fringe of a nucleation zone prior to a gross fault rupture (main shock). During loading we observed foreshocks sequences as slip transitioned from slow to rapid sliding. These laboratory-induced foreshocks showed similar acoustic characteristics and spatio-temporal evolution as those detected in nature. Through direct observation (video camera), foreshocks were found to be the rapid, localized (millimeter length scale) failure of highly stresses asperities formed along the interface. The interface was created by the meshing of two rough polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) bodies in a direct shear configuration. A carefully calibrated pressure sensitive film was used to map the contact junctions (asperities) throughout the interface at a range of applied normal loads Fn. Foreshocks were found to coalesce in a region of the fault that exhibited a more dense distribution of asperities (referred to as the seismogenic region). Microscopy of the interface in the seismogenic region displayed a variety of surface roughness at various length scales. This may have been introduced from the surface preparation techniques use to create a mature interface. The mature interface consisted of 'flat-topped' asperity regions with separating sharp valleys. The 'flat-topped' sections spanned millimetric length scales and were considerably flatter (nanometric roughness) that the roughness exhibited at longer length scales (tens of millimeters). We believe that the smoother, 'flat-topped' sections were responsible for the individual asperity formation (determining their size and strength), whereas the longer length scale roughness influenced the asperity-asperity interaction during the nucleation phase. Asperities in the seismogenic region where shown to exist close enough to each other so that elastic communication (through the off-fault material) could not be neglected. Prior to gross fault rupture (i.e. mainshock), we measured the propagation of a slow nucleating rupture into the relatively 'locked', seimsogenic region of the fault. Slow slip dynamics were captured using slip sensors placed along the fault that measured a non-uniform slip profile leading up to failure. We found that the propagation of the slow rupture into the locked region was dependent on the normal force Fn. Higher Fn was found to slow the propagation of shear rupture into the locked region. Within the relatively 'locked' region, a noticeable increase in size and a more compact spatial-temporal distribution of foreshocks were measured when Fn was increased. In order to develop an understanding of the relationship between Fn and the resistance of the fault to slow rupture, a quasi-static finite element (FE) model was developed. The model used distributions of asperities measured directly from the pressure sensitive film in a small section of the interface where foreshocks coalesced; specifically, the region where the slowly propagating slip front encountered the more dense distribution of asperities. A single asperity was modeled and followed the Cattaneo partial slip asperity solution. As the shear force increased along the fault, the asperities in this model were able to accommodate tangential slip by entering a partial sliding regime; the central contact of the asperities remained adhered while sliding accumulated along its periphery. Partial slip on the asperity propagated inwards as the shear force was incrementally increased. A further increase in the shear force caused the asperity to enter a full sliding condition. Increasing confining loads caused increased stiffness and increased capacity to store potential shear strain energy -- a possible measure of the 'degree of coupling' between the fault surfaces. Physics from the numerical model followed the qualitative observations made using photometry of asperities along the interface, which visualized asperities in the 'locked' region -- larger asperities remained stuck throughout the loading cycle and the light transmitted through individual asperities decreased from the periphery as shear loads increased. The numerical partial slip, quantified by the potential energy stored by the asperity, increased relative to the normal pressure p. Asperity-asperity interactions were modeled along the interface using a quasi-static analysis. Progression of slip into the asperity field was increasingly inhibited as the normal confining force Fn was increased. The computational model provided an explanation as to why an increased confining force Fn could result in an increased resistance to slow rupture as well as an increased potential for larger foreshocks within the resistive, relatively 'locked' section of a fault. This study lays the foundation for more innovative laboratory work that could potentially improve the phenomenological models currently used to estimate earthquake hazard. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Simulation studies of plasma waves in the electron foreshock - The generation of downshifted oscillations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dum, C. T.

1990-01-01

The generation of waves with frequencies downshifted from the plasma frequency, as observed in the electron foreshock, is analyzed by particle simulation. Wave excitation differs fundamentally from the familiar excitation of the plasma eigenmodes by a gentle bump-on-tail electron distribution. Beam modes are destabilized by resonant interaction with bulk electrons, provided the beam velocity spread is very small. These modes are stabilized, starting with the higher frequencies, as the beam is broadened and slowed down by the interaction with the wave spectrum. Initially a very cold beam is also capable of exciting frequencies considerably above the plasma frequency, but such oscillations are quickly stabilized. Low-frequency modes persist for a long time, until the bump in the electron distribution is completely 'ironed' out. This diffusion process also is quite different from the familiar case of well-separated beam and bulk electrons. A quantitative analysis of these processes is carried out.

Intense foreshocks and a slow slip event preceded the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake.

PubMed

Ruiz, S; Metois, M; Fuenzalida, A; Ruiz, J; Leyton, F; Grandin, R; Vigny, C; Madariaga, R; Campos, J

2014-09-05

The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. The moment magnitude (Mw) 8.1 Iquique earthquake of 1 April 2014 broke a highly coupled portion of this gap. To understand the seismicity preceding this event, we studied the location and mechanisms of the foreshocks and computed Global Positioning System (GPS) time series at stations located on shore. Seismicity off the coast of Iquique started to increase in January 2014. After 16 March, several Mw > 6 events occurred near the low-coupled zone. These events migrated northward for ~50 kilometers until the 1 April earthquake occurred. On 16 March, on-shore continuous GPS stations detected a westward motion that we model as a slow slip event situated in the same area where the mainshock occurred. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Precursory slow-slip loaded the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borghi, A.; Aoudia, A.; Javed, F.; Barzaghi, R.

2016-05-01

Slow-slip events (SSEs) are common at subduction zone faults where large mega earthquakes occur. We report here that one of the best-recorded moderate size continental earthquake, the 2009 April 6 moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake, was preceded by a 5.9 Mw SSE that originated from the decollement beneath the reactivated normal faulting system. The SSE is identified from a rigorous analysis of continuous GPS stations and occurred on the 12 February and lasted for almost two weeks. It coincided with a burst in the foreshock activity with small repeating earthquakes migrating towards the main-shock hypocentre as well as with a change in the elastic properties of rocks in the fault region. The SSE has caused substantial stress loading at seismogenic depths where the magnitude 4.0 foreshock and Mw 6.3 main shock nucleated. This stress loading is also spatially correlated with the lateral extent of the aftershock sequence.

Oblique Alfvén instabilities driven by compensated currents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malovichko, P.; Voitenko, Y.; De Keyser, J., E-mail: voitenko@oma.be

2014-01-10

Compensated-current systems created by energetic ion beams are widespread in space and astrophysical plasmas. The well-known examples are foreshock regions in the solar wind and around supernova remnants. We found a new oblique Alfvénic instability driven by compensated currents flowing along the background magnetic field. Because of the vastly different electron and ion gyroradii, oblique Alfvénic perturbations react differently on the currents carried by the hot ion beams and the return electron currents. Ultimately, this difference leads to a non-resonant aperiodic instability at perpendicular wavelengths close to the beam ion gyroradius. The instability growth rate increases with increasing beam currentmore » and temperature. In the solar wind upstream of Earth's bow shock, the instability growth time can drop below 10 proton cyclotron periods. Our results suggest that this instability can contribute to the turbulence and ion acceleration in space and astrophysical foreshocks.« less

Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varnes, D.J.

1989-01-01

During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is {Mathematical expression},where {Mathematical expression} is the cumulative sum until time, t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C and n are constants; and tfis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock, tf,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of {Mathematical expression} versus time using successive estimates of tfin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination, r2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values of n. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation log N=a-bM, and the product n times b for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic eruptions. Results of more recent experiments and theoretical studies on crack propagation, fault mechanics, and acoustic emission can be closely reproduced by equation (1). Rate-process theory and continuum damage mechanics offer leads toward understanding the physical processes. ?? 1989 Birkha??user Verlag.

Determining the Probability that a Small Event in Brazil (magnitude 3.5 to 4.5 mb) will be Followed by a Larger Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assumpcao, M.

2013-05-01

A typical earthquake story in Brazil: A swarm of small earthquakes starts to occur near a small town, reaching magnitude 3.5, causing some alarm but no damage. The freightened population, not used to feeling earthquakes, calls the seismology experts who set up a local network to study the seismicity. To the usual and inevitable question "Are we going to have a larger earthquake?", the usual and standard answer "It is not possible to predict earthquakes; larger earthquakes are possible". Fearing unecessary panic, seismologists often add that "however, large earthquakes are not very likely". This vague answer has proven quite inadequate. "Not very likely" is interpreted by the population and authorities as "not going to happen, and there is not need to do anything". Before L'Aquila 2009, one case of magnitude 3.8 in Eastern Brazil was followed seven months later by a magnitude 4.9 causing serious damage to poorly built houses. One child died and the affected population felt deceived by the seismologists. In order to provide better answers than just a vague "not likely", we examined the Brazilian catalog of earthquakes for all cases of moderate magnitude (3.4 mb or larger) that were followed, up to one year later, by a larger event. We found that the chance of an event with magnitude 3.4 or larger being the foreshock of a larger magntitude is roughly 1/6. The probability of an event being a foreshock varies with magnitude from about 20% for a 3.5 mb to about 5% for a 4.5 mb. Also, given that an event in the range 3.4 to 4.3 is a foreshock, the probability that the mainshock will be 4.7 or larger is 1/6. The probability for a larger event to occur decreases with time after the occurrence of the possible foreshock with a time constant of ~70 days. Perhaps, by giving the population and civil defense a more quantitative answer (such as "the chance of a larger even is like rolling a six in a dice") may help the decision to reinforce poor houses or even evacuate people from very vulnerable houses in the epicentral area.

Surface Temperature and Precipitation Affecting GPS Signals Before the 2009 L'Aquila Earthquake (Central Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crescentini, L.; Amoruso, A.; Chiaraluce, L.

2017-12-01

This work focuses on GPS time series recorded before the Mw 6.1 earthquake which struck Central Italy in April 2009. It shows how environmental noise effects may be subtle and relevant when investigating relatively small strain signals and how the availability of data from weather stations and water level sensors co-located with GPS stations may provide critical information which must be taken into consideration while dealing with deformation signals.The preparatory phase of a large earthquake may include both seismic (foreshocks) and aseismic (slow slip event, SSE) deforming episodes but, unlike afterslip, no slow event has yet been recorded before moderate earthquakes, even when they occurred close to high-sensitivity strain meters. An exception to this seems to be represented by the 2009 earthquake. The main shock was preceded by a foreshock sequence lasting 6 months; it has been claimed that an analysis of continuous GPS data shows that during the foreshock sequence a 5.9 Mw SSE occurred along a decollement located beneath the reactivated normal fault system. This hypothesized SSE, that started in the middle of February 2009 and lasted for almost two weeks, would have eventually loaded the largest foreshock and the main shock.We show that the strain signal that the SSE would have generated at two laser strainmeters operating at about 20 km NE from the SSE source was essentially undetected. On the contrary, a transient signal is present in temperature and precipitation time series recorded close to the GPS station, MTTO, that has largest signal referred to the SSE, implying that these contaminated the GPS record. This interpretation is corroborated by the strong similarity, during the coldest winter months, between the displacement data of MTTO and a linear combination of filtered temperature and precipitation data, mimicking simple heat conduction and snow accumulation/removal processes. Such a correlation between displacement and environmental data is missing during the other seasons, when it neither snows nor freezes. This lack of correlation seems to exclude simple thermal expansion of the bedrock or the pillar monument itself as a local source of deformation. We hypothesize that thermal effects might be caused by ground freezing and consequent water expansion (about 9%) when liquid water is converted into ice.

Bayesian inference and interpretation of centroid moment tensors of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, Kyushu, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallo, Miroslav; Asano, Kimiyuki; Gallovič, František

2017-09-01

On April 16, 2016, Kumamoto prefecture in Kyushu region, Japan, was devastated by a shallow M JMA7.3 earthquake. The series of foreshocks started by M JMA6.5 foreshock 28 h before the mainshock. They have originated in Hinagu fault zone intersecting the mainshock Futagawa fault zone; hence, the tectonic background for this earthquake sequence is rather complex. Here we infer centroid moment tensors (CMTs) for 11 events with M JMA between 4.8 and 6.5, using strong motion records of the K-NET, KiK-net and F-net networks. We use upgraded Bayesian full-waveform inversion code ISOLA-ObsPy, which takes into account uncertainty of the velocity model. Such an approach allows us to reliably assess uncertainty of the CMT parameters including the centroid position. The solutions show significant systematic spatial and temporal variations throughout the sequence. Foreshocks are right-lateral steeply dipping strike-slip events connected to the NE-SW shear zone. Those located close to the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones are dipping slightly to ESE, while those in the southern area are dipping to WNW. Contrarily, aftershocks are mostly normal dip-slip events, being related to the N-S extensional tectonic regime. Most of the deviatoric moment tensors contain only minor CLVD component, which can be attributed to the velocity model uncertainty. Nevertheless, two of the CMTs involve a significant CLVD component, which may reflect complex rupture process. Decomposition of those moment tensors into two pure shear moment tensors suggests combined right-lateral strike-slip and normal dip-slip mechanisms, consistent with the tectonic settings of the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the Great 1857 California earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

1999-01-01

The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults anywhere in the world, yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before, during, and after large earthquakes. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 M 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault. We began by searching archived first-hand accounts from 1857 through 1862, by grouping felt reports temporally, and by assigning modified Mercalli intensities to each site. We then used a modified form of the grid-search algorithm of Bakum and Wentworth, derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes, to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events. The result confirms a conclusion of Sieh that at least two foreshocks ('dawn' and 'sunrise') located on or near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault preceded the mainshock. We estimate their magnitudes to be M ~ 6.1 and M ~ 5.6, respectively. The aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence, with magnitudes M ~ 6.25 and M ~ 6.7, near the southern half of the rupture; later aftershocks included a M ~ 6 event near San Bernardino in December 1858 and a M ~ 6.3 event near the Parkfield segment in April 1860. From earthquake logs at Fort Tejon, we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3.75 years.

Multi-scale heterogeneity of the 2011 Great Tohoku-oki Earthquake from dynamic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, H.; Ide, S.

2011-12-01

In order to explain the scaling issues of earthquakes of different sizes, multi-scale heterogeneity conception is necessary to characterize earthquake faulting property (Ide and Aochi, JGR, 2005; Aochi and Ide, JGR, 2009).The 2011 Great Tohoku-oki earthquake (M9) is characterized by a slow initial phase of about M7, a M8 class deep rupture, and a M9 main rupture with quite large slip near the trench (e.g. Ide et al., Science, 2011) as well as the presence of foreshocks. We dynamically model these features based on the multi-scale conception. We suppose a significantly large fracture energy (corresponding to slip-weakening distance of 3.2 m) in most of the fault dimension to represent the M9 rupture. However we give local heterogeneity with relatively small circular patches of smaller fracture energy, by assuming the linear scaling relation between the radius and fracture energy. The calculation is carried out using 3D Boundary Integral Equation Method. We first begin only with the mainshock (Aochi and Ide, EPS, 2011), but later we find it important to take into account of a series of foreshocks since the 9th March (M7.4). The smaller patches including the foreshock area are necessary to launch the M9 rupture area of large fracture energy. We then simulate the ground motion in low frequencies using Finite Difference Method. Qualitatively, the observed tendency is consistent with our simulations, in the meaning of the transition from the central part to the southern part in low frequencies (10 - 20 sec). At higher frequencies (1-10 sec), further small asperities are inferred in the observed signals, and this feature matches well with our multi-scale conception.

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2014 M8.1 Iquique, northern Chile, megathrust earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto, Hugo; Sippl, Christian; Schurr, Bernd; Asch, Günter; Tilmann, Frederik; Comte, Diana; Ruiz, Sergio; Oncken, Onno

2017-04-01

The M8.1 2014 Iquique earthquake broke a central piece of the long-standing, >500 km long northern Chile seismic gap. The Iquique earthquake sequence started off with a M6.7 thrust event presumably in the upper plate seaward of the Chilean coastline. Deformation was quickly transferred onto the megathrust with three more events of M>6 until it culminated in the mainshock that broke a compact asperity with possibly up to 12 m of slip two weeks later. The mainshock was followed by vigorous aftershock sequence, including a M7.7 event just south of the main slip patch approx. two days later. The whole sequence of events was well recorded by the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC). The IPOC network was complemented quickly after the first large foreshock by 60 additional temporary seismic stations deployed by the University of Chile and the German Research Centre for Geosciences - GFZ. Processing the continuous data with an automated multi-step process for event detection, association and phase picking, we located more than 25,000 events for one month preceding and nine months following the Iquique mainshock. Whereas the foreshocks skirt around the updip limit of the mainshock asperity, the aftershocks agglomerate in two belts, one updip and one downdip of the main asperity offshore the Chilean coast. The deepest events on the plate interface reach 65 km depth in two separated clusters under the coastal cordillera, which show a significant difference in dip, indicating strong long-wavelength slab topography or a slab tear. We will also analyze upper- and deeper intra-plate seismicity and in particular its changes following the Iquique mainshock.

Kaguya observations of the lunar wake in the terrestrial foreshock: Surface potential change by bow-shock reflected ions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishino, Masaki N.; Harada, Yuki; Saito, Yoshifumi; Tsunakawa, Hideo; Takahashi, Futoshi; Yokota, Shoichiro; Matsushima, Masaki; Shibuya, Hidetoshi; Shimizu, Hisayoshi

2017-09-01

There forms a tenuous region called the wake behind the Moon in the solar wind, and plasma entry/refilling into the wake is a fundamental problem of the lunar plasma science. High-energy ions and electrons in the foreshock of the Earth's magnetosphere were detected at the lunar surface in the Apollo era, but their effects on the lunar night-side environment have never been studied. Here we show the first observation of bow-shock reflected protons by Kaguya (SELENE) spacecraft in orbit around the Moon, confirming that solar wind plasma reflected at the terrestrial bow shock can easily access the deepest lunar wake when the Moon stays in the foreshock (We name this mechanism 'type-3 entry'). In a continuous type-3 event, low-energy electron beams from the lunar night-side surface are not obvious even though the spacecraft location is magnetically connected to the lunar surface. On the other hand, in an intermittent type-3 entry event, the kinetic energy of upward-going field-aligned electron beams decreases from ∼ 80 eV to ∼ 20 eV or electron beams disappear as the bow-shock reflected ions come accompanied by enhanced downward electrons. According to theoretical treatment based on electric current balance at the lunar surface including secondary electron emission by incident electron and ion impact, we deduce that incident ions would be accompanied by a few to several times higher flux of an incident electron flux, which well fits observed downward fluxes. We conclude that impact by the bow-shock reflected ions and electrons raises the electrostatic potential of the lunar night-side surface.

STATISTICALLY DETERMINED DISPERSION RELATIONS OF MAGNETIC FIELD FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TERRESTRIAL FORESHOCK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hnat, B.; O’Connell, D.; Nakariakov, V. M.

2016-08-20

We obtain dispersion relations of magnetic field fluctuations for two crossings of the terrestrial foreshock by Cluster spacecraft. These crossings cover plasma conditions that differ significantly in their plasma β and in the density of the reflected ion beam, but not in the properties of the encountered ion population, both showing shell-like distribution function. Dispersion relations are reconstructed using two-point instantaneous wave number estimations from pairs of Cluster spacecraft. The accessible range of wave vectors, limited by the available spacecraft separations, extends to ≈2 × 10{sup 4} km. Results show multiple branches of dispersion relations, associated with different powers ofmore » magnetic field fluctuations. We find that sunward propagating fast magnetosonic waves and beam resonant modes are dominant for the high plasma β interval with a dense beam, while the dispersions of the interval with low beam density include Alfvén and fast magnetosonic modes propagating sunward and anti-sunward.« less

The Missing Link Coupling the Foreshock to the Magnetosphere?: Impact of the Magnetosheath Velocity Fluctuations on the Growth of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nykyri, K.; Dimmock, A. P.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Otto, A.; Ma, X.

2014-12-01

Our statistical study of magnetosheath velocity fluctuations using 6+ years of THEMIS spacecraft measurements in Magnetosheath InterPlanetary Medium (MIPM) reference frame show that amplitudes of the velocity fluctuations are enhanced in the magnetosheath downstream of the quasi-parallel shock. The fluctuation amplitudes can be substantial and frequencies of these flcutuations can vary. We have examined the role of the i) amplitude, ii) frequency, iii) number of the modes, iv) as well as mode combinations of magnetosheath velocity fluctuations on the growth of Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability (KHI) using high-resolution macro-scale MHD simulations in magnetospheric inertial frame. The results show that even for the same magnetic field and plasma parameters across the magnetopause there can be major differences due to 'magnetosheath fluctuation state' on the growth and dynamical evolution of the KHI. This may provide the missing link how foreshock fluctuations couple to the magnetosphere and into the ionosphere

A mechanism for plasma waves at the harmonics of the plasma frequency foreshock boundary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klimas, A. J.

1982-01-01

A bump-on-tail unstable reduced velocity distribution, constructed from data obtained at the upstream boundary of the electron foreshock by the GSFC electron spectrometer experiment on the ISEE-1 satellite, is used as the initial plasma state for a numerical integration of the 1D-Vlasov-Maxwell system of equations. The integration is carried through the growth of the instability, beyond its saturation, and well into the stabilized plasma regime. A power spectrum computed for the electric field of the stabilized plasma is dominated by a narrow peak at the Bohm-Gross frequency of the unstable field mode but also contains significant power at the harmonics of the Bohm-Gross frequency. The harmonic power is in sharp peaks which are split into closely spaced doublets. The fundamental peak at the Bohm-Gross frequency is split into a closely spaced triplet. The mechanism for excitation of the second harmonic is shown to be second order wave-wave coupling.

The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.

2016-01-01

The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

The quasiperpendicular environment of large magnetic pulses in Earth's quasiparallel foreshock - ISEE 1 and 2 observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenstadt, E. W.; Moses, S. L.; Coroniti, F. V.; Farris, M. H.; Russell, C. T.

1993-01-01

ULF waves in Earth's foreshock cause the instantaneous angle theta-B(n) between the upstream magnetic field and the shock normal to deviate from its average value. Close to the quasi-parallel (Q-parallel) shock, the transverse components of the waves become so large that the orientation of the field to the normal becomes quasi-perpendicular (Q-perpendicular) during applicable phases of each wave cycle. Large upstream pulses of B were observed completely enclosed in excursions of Theta-B(n) into the Q-perpendicular range. A recent numerical simulation included Theta-B(n) among the parameters examined in Q-parallel runs, and described a similar coincidence as intrinsic to a stage in development of the reformation process of such shocks. Thus, the natural environment of the Q-perpendicular section of Earth's bow shock seems to include an identifiable class of enlarged magnetic pulses for which local Q-perpendicular geometry is a necessary association.

Including foreshocks and aftershocks in time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.

2012-01-01

Time‐independent probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis treats each source as being temporally and spatially independent; hence foreshocks and aftershocks, which are both spatially and temporally dependent on the mainshock, are removed from earthquake catalogs. Yet, intuitively, these earthquakes should be considered part of the seismic hazard, capable of producing damaging ground motions. In this study, I consider the mainshock and its dependents as a time‐independent cluster, each cluster being temporally and spatially independent from any other. The cluster has a recurrence time of the mainshock; and, by considering the earthquakes in the cluster as a union of events, dependent events have an opportunity to contribute to seismic ground motions and hazard. Based on the methods of the U.S. Geological Survey for a high‐hazard site, the inclusion of dependent events causes ground motions that are exceeded at probability levels of engineering interest to increase by about 10% but could be as high as 20% if variations in aftershock productivity can be accounted for reliably.

Acceleration of Particles Near Earth's Bow Shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandroos, A.

2012-12-01

Collisionless shock waves, for example, near planetary bodies or driven by coronal mass ejections, are a key source of energetic particles in the heliosphere. When the solar wind hits Earth's bow shock, some of the incident particles get reflected back towards the Sun and are accelerated in the process. Reflected ions are responsible for the creation of a turbulent foreshock in quasi-parallel regions of Earth's bow shock. We present first results of foreshock macroscopic structure and of particle distributions upstream of Earth's bow shock, obtained with a new 2.5-dimensional self-consistent diffusive shock acceleration model. In the model particles' pitch angle scattering rates are calculated from Alfvén wave power spectra using quasilinear theory. Wave power spectra in turn are modified by particles' energy changes due to the scatterings. The new model has been implemented on massively parallel simulation platform Corsair. We have used an earlier version of the model to study ion acceleration in a shock-shock interaction event (Hietala, Sandroos, and Vainio, 2012).

Geodetic constraints on afterslip characteristics following the March 9, 2011, Sanriku-oki earthquake, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohta, Yusaku; Hino, Ryota; Inazu, Daisuke; Ohzono, Mako; Ito, Yoshihiro; Mishina, Masaaki; Iinuma, Takeshi; Nakajima, Junichi; Osada, Yukihito; Suzuki, Kensuke; Fujimoto, Hiromi; Tachibana, Kenji; Demachi, Tomotsugu; Miura, Satoshi

2012-08-01

A magnitude 7.3 foreshock occurred at the subducting Pacific plate interface on March 9, 2011, 51 h before the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the Pacific coast of Japan. We propose a coseismic and postseismic afterslip model of the magnitude 7.3 event based on a global positioning system network and ocean bottom pressure gauge sites. The estimated coseismic slip and afterslip areas show complementary spatial distributions; the afterslip distribution is located up-dip of the coseismic slip for the foreshock and northward of hypocenter of the Tohoku earthquake. The slip amount for the afterslip is roughly consistent with that determined by repeating earthquake analysis carried out in a previous study. The estimated moment release for the afterslip reached magnitude 6.8, even within a short time period of 51h. A volumetric strainmeter time series also suggests that this event advanced with a rapid decay time constant compared with other typical large earthquakes.

Characteristic of the postseismic deformation following the 2011 Sanriku-Oki earthquake (Mw 7.2) by comparing the 1989 and 1992 Sanriku-Oki events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohta, Yusaku; Hino, Ryota; Ariyoshi, Keisuke; Matsuzawa, Toru; Mishina, Masaaki; Sato, Tadahiro; Tachibana, Kenji; Demachi, Tomotsugu; Miura, Satoshi

2013-04-01

The March 11, 2011, moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0 Tohoku earthquake (hereafter referred to as the mainshock) generated a large tsunami, which caused devastating damage and the loss of more than 15,800 lives. On March 9, 2011 at 2:45 (UTC), an M7.3 interplate earthquake (hereafter referred to as the foreshock) occurred ~45 km northeast of the epicenter of the Mw9.0 mainshock. The focal mechanism estimated by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) incorporates reverse fault motion with a west-northwest to east-southeast compression axis. This foreshock preceded the 2011 Tohoku earthquake by 51 h. Kato et al. [Science, 2012] pointed out aftershock migration after the foreshock along the trench axis toward the epicenter of the Mw9.0 mainshock on the basis of an earthquake catalog, which was created using a waveform correlation technique. They also estimated aseismic slip amount by the repeating earthquake analysis. Ohta et al. [GRL, 2012] proposed a coseismic and postseismic afterslip model of the foreshock based on a GPS network and ocean bottom pressure gauge sites. The estimated coseismic slip and afterslip areas show complementary spatial distributions. The slip amount for the afterslip is roughly consistent with that determined by repeating earthquake analysis carried out by Kato et al. [2012]. Ohta et al. [2012] also pointed out a volumetric strainmeter time series suggests that this event advanced with a rapid decay time constant compared with other typical large earthquakes. For verification of this exception, we investigated the postseismic deformation characteristic following the 1989 and 1992 Sanriku-Oki earthquake, which occurred 100-150 km north of the epicenter of the 2011 Sanriku-Oki event. We used four components extensometer of the Tohoku University at Miyako (39.59N, 141.98E) on the Sanriku coast for these events. To extract the characteristics of the postseismic deformation, we fitted the logarithmic function. The estimated decay time constant was relatively small compared with the typical interplate earthquakes in a similar fashion to 2011 Sanriku-Oki event. Our result suggests that the short decay time of the postseismic deformation is characteristic of this region. The exact reason of short decay time for these afterslips is unclear at present, but it was possibly controlled by the frictional property on the plate interface, especially effective normal stress controlled by fluid.

Source characterization of moderate induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: A case study of 2013-2016 Cushing earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Chen; Archuleta, Ralph

2017-04-01

The significant increase of seismicity rate in the central and eastern United States since 2009 has drawn wide attention for the potential seismic hazard. Unfortunately, most of moderate earthquakes in this region lack near-fault strong motion records, limiting in-depth studies. The 2016/11/07 M 5.0 Cushing, Oklahoma earthquake and its fore/aftershock sequence, which was monitored by four strong motion stations within 10 km of the mainshock epicenter, is the only exception. According to Oklahoma Geological Survey, no M>1.5 earthquake occurred before 2013 within 5 km of the mainshock epicenter, but 110 foreshocks, including two M>4 events, had occurred before the mainshock initiation. The close-fault records also revealed that M>4 foreshocks and mainshock excited unusually high level of strong ground motion. For example, 2015/10/10 Mw 4.3 Cushing earthquake resulted in peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) up to 0.6 g and 8.3 cm/s, respectively. Simply correcting the geometric spreading (1/R, R is hypocenter distance) leads to mean PGA and PGV of 0.2 g and 3.6 cm/s at R=10 km, which are 4-8 times of the average values inferred from NGA-West dataset (Archuleta and Ji, 2016). Here we constrain the slip history of Cushing mainshock and its M>4 foreshocks using strong motion waveforms and compare them with the results of other moderate Oklahoma earthquakes. Our preliminary analysis of the mainshock leads to a preferred model of heterogeneous dextral slip on a vertical fault plane orienting N60oE, with three major rupture stages. The rupture initiated at a depth of 4.1 km, within the "cloud" of foreshocks. The first subevent has a rupture duration of 0.7 s and accounts for 20% of total seismic moment (Mw 4.4). After a delay of 0.5 s, a slip patch just outside the foreshock "cloud" and 2-3 km away from the hypocenter broke. From 1.2 s to 1.7 s, 45% of total seismic moment (Mw 4.7) was quickly released. The rest of the seismic moment (35%, Mw 4.6) occurred in the shallower depths (<2 km) within the next 1.5 s. The inverted total seismic moment is 2.6x10^16 Nm (Mw 4.9) and the peak slip is about 0.4 m. The total rupture duration of the inverted model is 3.2 s, about twice the typical value of Mw 4.9 earthquakes. The peak static stress drop estimated using the slip model is 10 MPa, but the energy based average stress drop is only 2 MPa, slightly lower than typical tectonic earthquakes. We note that these rupture characteristics are similar to the results of 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, Oklahoma earthquake (Sun and Hartzell, 2014). Both of them support the hypothesis that unlike the tectonic earthquakes that occur on mature faults and often have single predominant asperity, the induced moderate earthquakes in Oklahoma can be viewed as cascade ruptures on pre-mature fault planes with multiple isolated asperities close to failure. Such a hypothesis supports the argument that the damage from injection-induced earthquakes will be especially concentrated in the immediate epicentral region (Hough, 2014).

Natural time analysis of critical phenomena: The case of pre-fracture electromagnetic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potirakis, S. M.; Karadimitrakis, A.; Eftaxias, K.

2013-06-01

Criticality of complex systems reveals itself in various ways. One way to monitor a system at critical state is to analyze its observable manifestations using the recently introduced method of natural time. Pre-fracture electromagnetic (EM) emissions, in agreement to laboratory experiments, have been consistently detected in the MHz band prior to significant earthquakes. It has been proposed that these emissions stem from the fracture of the heterogeneous materials surrounding the strong entities (asperities) distributed along the fault, preventing the relative slipping. It has also been proposed that the fracture of heterogeneous material could be described in analogy to the critical phase transitions in statistical physics. In this work, the natural time analysis is for the first time applied to the pre-fracture MHz EM signals revealing their critical nature. Seismicity and pre-fracture EM emissions should be two sides of the same coin concerning the earthquake generation process. Therefore, we also examine the corresponding foreshock seismic activity, as another manifestation of the same complex system at critical state. We conclude that the foreshock seismicity data present criticality features as well.

Multispacecraft study of shock-flux rope interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanco-Cano, X.; Burgess, D.; Sundberg, T.; Kajdic, P.

2016-12-01

Interplanetary (IP) shocks can be driven in the solar wind by fast coronal mass ejections. These shocks play an active role in particle acceleration near the Sun and through the heliosphere, being associated to solar energetic particle (SEP) and energetic storm particle (ESP) events. IP shocks can interact with structures in the solar wind, and with planetary magnetospheres. In this work we study how the properties of an IP shock change when it interacts with a medium scale flux rope (FR). We use measurements from CLUSTER, WIND and ACE. These three spacecraft observed the shock-FR interaction at different stages of its evolution. We find that the shock-FR interaction locally changes the shock geometry, affecting ion injection processes, and the upstream and downstream regions. While WIND and ACE observed a quasi-perpendicular shock, CLUSTER crossed a quasi-parallel shock and a foreshock with a variety of ion distributions. The complexity of the ion foreshock can be explained by the dynamics of the shock transitioning from quasi-perpendicular to quasi-parallel, and the geometry of the magnetic field around the flux rope.

A scale-invariant cellular-automata model for distributed seismicity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barriere, Benoit; Turcotte, Donald L.

1991-01-01

In the standard cellular-automata model for a fault an element of stress is randomly added to a grid of boxes until a box has four elements, these are then redistributed to the adjacent boxes on the grid. The redistribution can result in one or more of these boxes having four or more elements in which case further redistributions are required. On the average added elements are lost from the edges of the grid. The model is modified so that the boxes have a scale-invariant distribution of sizes. The objective is to model a scale-invariant distribution of fault sizes. When a redistribution from a box occurs it is equivalent to a characteristic earthquake on the fault. A redistribution from a small box (a foreshock) can trigger an instability in a large box (the main shock). A redistribution from a large box always triggers many instabilities in the smaller boxes (aftershocks). The frequency-size statistics for both main shocks and aftershocks satisfy the Gutenberg-Richter relation with b = 0.835 for main shocks and b = 0.635 for aftershocks. Model foreshocks occur 28 percent of the time.

Natural time analysis of critical phenomena: the case of pre-fracture electromagnetic emissions.

PubMed

Potirakis, S M; Karadimitrakis, A; Eftaxias, K

2013-06-01

Criticality of complex systems reveals itself in various ways. One way to monitor a system at critical state is to analyze its observable manifestations using the recently introduced method of natural time. Pre-fracture electromagnetic (EM) emissions, in agreement to laboratory experiments, have been consistently detected in the MHz band prior to significant earthquakes. It has been proposed that these emissions stem from the fracture of the heterogeneous materials surrounding the strong entities (asperities) distributed along the fault, preventing the relative slipping. It has also been proposed that the fracture of heterogeneous material could be described in analogy to the critical phase transitions in statistical physics. In this work, the natural time analysis is for the first time applied to the pre-fracture MHz EM signals revealing their critical nature. Seismicity and pre-fracture EM emissions should be two sides of the same coin concerning the earthquake generation process. Therefore, we also examine the corresponding foreshock seismic activity, as another manifestation of the same complex system at critical state. We conclude that the foreshock seismicity data present criticality features as well.

Wastewater disposal and the earthquake sequences during 2016 near Fairview, Pawnee, and Cushing, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, Arthur F.; Barbour, Andrew

2017-01-01

Each of the three earthquake sequences in Oklahoma in 2016—Fairview, Pawnee, and Cushing—appears to have been induced by high-volume wastewater disposal within 10 km. The Fairview M5.1 main shock was part of a 2 year sequence of more than 150 events of M3, or greater; the main shock accounted for about half of the total moment. The foreshocks and aftershocks of the M5.8 Pawnee earthquake were too small and too few to contribute significantly to the cumulative moment; instead, nearly all of the moment induced by wastewater injection was focused on the main shock. The M5.0 Cushing event is part of a sequence that includes 48 earthquakes of M3, or greater, that are mostly foreshocks. The cumulative moment for each of the three sequences during 2016, as well as that for the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma, and nine other sequences representing a broad range of injected volume, are all limited by the total volumes of wastewater injected locally.

Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, Andrew J.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

The Interaction of Solar wind Discontinuities with the Earth's Bow Shock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibeck, David G.

2000-01-01

Funding from NASA Grant No. NAG54679 was received in three installments. The first year's installment amounted to only one month of salary support and was used to prepare survey plots. The second year's installment allowed us to complete two research papers concerning the interaction of solar wind discontinuities with the Earth's bow shock. In the first (published) paper, we reported that the discontinuities launch slow mode waves into the magnetosheath and the slow mode waves always propagate antisunward through the flank magnetosheath. Because the sunward/antisunward sense of the magnetosheath magnetic field reverses across local noon, so does the (north/south or east/west) sense of the velocity fluctuations associated with the waves. Wind, Geotail, and IMP-8 observations were used for this study. In the second study, we used Wind and Interball-1 observations to demonstrate that pressure pulses in the magnetosheath occur in pairs and that they bound pressure cavities and/or brief intervals of outward magnetopause motion. This paper is now in press. Funding from the third year's installment has been used to investigate the two aspects of the foreshock. Two manuscripts are now in preparation for submission to the Journal of Geophysical Research. The first reports that waves within the foreshock account for many instances of poor correlations between two solar wind monitors. Remaining cases of poor correlation occur during intervals of nearly constant IMF orientations and magnetic field strengths. While the former category pose a significant difficulty for space weather forecasts, the latter do not. The second study surveys IMP-8 observations of the foreshock. We find that diamagnetic cavities are common, particularly during periods of high solar wind velocity and low solar wind density. Plasma densities, temperatures, and magnetic field strengths fall during intervals of enhanced energetic particle fluxes. The cavities are bounded by regions of decelerated solar wind plasma and enhanced densities and magnetic field strengths.

Earthquake rupture properties of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake foreshocks ( M j 6.5 and M j 6.4) revealed by conventional and multiple-aperture InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Tomokazu

2017-01-01

By applying conventional cross-track InSAR and multiple-aperture InSAR (MAI) techniques with ALOS-2 SAR data to foreshocks of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, ground displacement fields in range (line-of-sight) and azimuth components have been successfully mapped. The most concentrated crustal deformation with ground displacement exceeding 15 cm is located on the western side of the Hinagu fault zone. A locally distributed displacement which appears along the strike of the Futagawa fault can be identified in and around Mashiki town, suggesting that a different local fault slip also contributed toward foreshocks. Inverting InSAR, MAI, and GNSS data, distributed slip models are obtained that show almost pure right-lateral fault motion on a plane dipping west by 80° for the Hinagu fault and almost pure normal fault motion on a plane dipping south by 70° for the local fault beneath Mashiki town. The slip on the Hinagu fault reaches around the junction of the Hinagu and Futagawa faults. The slip in the north significantly extends down to around 10 km depth, while in the south the slip is concentrated near the ground surface, perhaps corresponding to the M j 6.5 and the M j 6.4 events, respectively. The focal mechanism of the distributed slip model for the Hinagu fault alone shows pure right-lateral motion, which is inconsistent with the seismically estimated mechanism that includes a significant non-double couple component. On the other hand, when taking the contribution of normal fault motion into account, the focal mechanism appears similar to that of the seismic analysis. This result may suggest that local fault motion occurred just beneath Mashiki town, simultaneously with the M j 6.5 event, thereby increasing the degree of damage to the town.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

ULF foreshock under radial IMF: THEMIS observations and global kinetic simulation Vlasiator results compared

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmroth, Minna; Rami, Vainio; Archer, Martin; Hietala, Heli; Afanasiev, Alexandr; Kempf, Yann; Hoilijoki, Sanni; von Alfthan, Sebastian

2015-04-01

For decades, a certain type of ultra low frequency waves with a period of about 30 seconds have been observed in the Earth's quasi-parallel foreshock. These waves, with a wavelength of about an Earth radius, are compressive and propagate with an average angle of 20 degrees with respect of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The latter property has caused trouble to scientists as the growth rate for the instability causing the waves is maximized along the magnetic field. So far, these waves have been characterized by single or multi-spacecraft methods and 2-dimensional hybrid-PIC simulations, which have not fully reproduced the wave properties. Vlasiator is a newly developed, global hybrid-Vlasov simulation, which solves the six-dimensional phase space utilising the Vlasov equation for protons, while electrons are a charge-neutralising fluid. The outcome of the simulation is a global reproduction of ion-scale physics in a holistic manner where the generation of physical features can be followed in time and their consequences can be quantitatively characterised. Vlasiator produces the ion distribution functions and the related kinetic physics in unprecedented detail, in the global scale magnetospheric scale with a resolution of a couple of hundred kilometres in the ordinary space and 20 km/s in the velocity space. We run Vlasiator under a radial IMF in five dimensions consisting of the three-dimensional velocity space embedded in the ecliptic plane. We observe the generation of the 30-second ULF waves, and characterize their evolution and physical properties in time. We compare the results both to THEMIS observations and to the quasi-linear theory. We find that Vlasiator reproduces the foreshock ULF waves in all reported observational aspects, i.e., they are of the observed size in wavelength and period, they are compressive and propagate obliquely to the IMF. In particular, we discuss the issues related to the long-standing question of oblique propagation.

Characterization of active faulting beneath the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cassidy, J.F.; Rogers, Gary C.; Waldhauser, F.

2000-01-01

Southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington State are subject to megathrust earthquakes, deep intraslab events, and earthquakes in the continental crust. Of the three types of earthquakes, the most poorly understood are the crustal events. Despite a high level of seismicity, there is no obvious correlation between the historical crustal earthquakes and the mapped surface faults of the region. On 24 June 1997, a ML = 4.6 earthquake occurred 3-4 km beneath the Strait of Georgia, 30 km to the west of Vancouver, British Columbia. This well-recorded earthquake was preceded by 11 days by a felt foreshock (ML = 3.4) and was followed by numerous small aftershocks. This earthquake sequence occurred in one of the few regions of persistent shallow seismic activity in southwestern British Columbia, thus providing an ideal opportunity to attempt to characterize an active near-surface fault. We have computed focal mechanisms and utilized a waveform cross-correlation and joint hypocentral determination routine to obtain accurate relative hypocenters of the mainshock, foreshock, and 53 small aftershocks in an attempt to image the active fault and the extent of rupture associated with this earthquake sequence. Both P-nodal and CMT focal mechanisms show thrust faulting for the mainshock and the foreshock. The relocated hypocenters delineate a north-dipping plane at 2-4 km depth, dipping at 53??, in good agreement with the focal mechanism nodal plane dipping to the north at 47??. The rupture area is estimated to be a 1.3-km-diameter circular area, comparable to that estimated using a Brune rupture model with the estimated seismic moment of 3.17 ?? 1015 N m and the stress drop of 45 bars. The temporal sequence indicates a downdip migration of the seismicity along the fault plane. The results of this study provide the first unambiguous evidence for the orientation and sense of motion for active faulting in the Georgia Strait area of British Columbia.

Research study of space plasma boundary processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenstadt, E. W.; Taylor, W. W. L.

1984-01-01

Representation of the Earth's bow shock and magnetopause and their geometrically determined macrostructure was investigated. Computer graphic depictions of the global distributions of bow shock structures and elementary animation of the dynamics of those distributions in the changing solar wind were developed. The shock-foreshock boundary and subcritical bow shocks as observed by ISEE 1 and 2 are discussed.

Theory of time-dependent rupture in the Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Das, S.; Scholz, C. H.

1980-01-01

Fracture mechanics is used to develop a theory of earthquake mechanism which includes the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth. The following phenomena are predicted: slow earthquakes, multiple events, delayed multiple events (doublets), postseismic rupture growth and afterslip, foreshocks, and aftershocks. The theory predicts a nucleation stage prior to an earthquake, and suggests a physical mechanism by which one earthquake may 'trigger' another.

Multispacecraft study of shock-flux rope interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanco-Cano, Xochitl; Burgess, David; Sundberg, Torbjorn; Kajdic, Primoz

2017-04-01

Interplanetary (IP) shocks can be driven in the solar wind by fast coronal mass ejections. These shocks can accelerate particles near the Sun and through the heliosphere, being associated to solar energetic particle (SEP) and energetic storm particle (ESP) events. IP shocks can interact with structures in the solar wind, and with planetary magnetospheres. In this study we show how the properties of an IP shock change when it interacts with a medium scale flux rope (FR) like structure. We use data measurements from CLUSTER, WIND and ACE. These three spacecraft observed the shock-FR interaction at different stages of its evolution. We find that the shock-FR interaction locally changes the shock geometry, affecting ion injection processes, and the upstream and downstream regions. While WIND and ACE observed a quasi-perpendicular shock, CLUSTER crossed a quasi-parallel shock and a foreshock with a variety of ion distributions. The complexity of the ion foreshock can be explained by the dynamics of the shock transitioning from quasi-perpendicular to quasi-parallel, and the geometry of the magnetic field around the flux rope. Interactions such as the one we discuss can occur often along the extended IP shock fronts, and hence their importance towards a better understanding of shock acceleration.

Distribution of the largest aftershocks in branching models of triggered seismicity: theory of the universal Båth law.

PubMed

Saichev, A; Sornette, D

2005-05-01

Using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to calculate exactly the average difference between the magnitude of a mainshock and the magnitude of its largest aftershock over all generations. This average magnitude difference is found empirically to be independent of the mainshock magnitude and equal to 1.2, a universal behavior known as Båth's law. Our theory shows that Båth's law holds only sufficiently close to the critical regime of the ETAS branching process. Allowing for error bars +/- 0.1 for Båth's constant value around 1.2, our exact analytical treatment of Båth's law provides new constraints on the productivity exponent alpha and the branching ratio n: 0.9 approximately < alpha < or =1. We propose a method for measuring alpha based on the predicted renormalization of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of the magnitudes of the largest aftershock. We also introduce the "second Båth law for foreshocks:" the probability that a main earthquake turns out to be the foreshock does not depend on its magnitude rho.

China Report, Science & Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-04-30

Distribution of Scientists, Engineers Discussed (CHINA DAILY, various dates) 37 Little Freedom of Movement , by Niu Qiuxia 37 ’Imbalanced...the masses to monitor foreshocks. "A few years ago we had such concoctions as ’indigenous telluric electricity,’ ’indigenous geomagnetism,’ and...skills. It is easier and more feasible than movements of skilled personnel. One might say that it is using "nearby water to slake nearby thirst

Study pre-earthquake features in the Earth atmosphere-ionosphere environment associated with 2016 Amatrice-Norcia (Central Italy) seismic sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulinets, Sergey; Giuliani, Gioacchino; Hernández-Pajares, Manuel; García-Rigo, Alberto

2017-04-01

The 2016 Amatrice-Norcia (Central Italy) seismic sequence (M6.3, M6.1 and M6.5), became one of the unusual and important modern earthquake events. Recent studies indicate (including April 6th 2009 Abruzzo earthquake) an enhanced coupling between the atmospheric boundary layer and the ionosphere, which have been proposed to be related with large (>M6) earthquakes. This relationship has been studied for the 2016 Central Italy sequence using an integrated set of observations of five physical and environmental parameters. We present observational data from January to November 2016 of five physical parameters- radon, seismicity, temperature of the atmosphere boundary layer, outgoing earth infrared radiation and GPS/TEC and their temporal and spatial variations several days before the onset of the Amatrice-Norcia earthquake sequence. The Aug 24 M6.2 foreshock was situated about 70 kilometers from the 2 stations of radon near L'Aquila. These data show an increase prior to the main earthquake beginning in July-August this enhancement of radon coincides (with some delay) with an increase in the atmospheric chemical potential (Aug 11) measured near the epicentral area from satellite. And subsequently from Aug12 there was an association with the acceleration of outgoing infrared radiation observed on the top of the atmosphere from EOS satellite (Aug 16). The GPS/Total Electron Content data indicate an increase of electron concentration in ionosphere on August 22 and October 26, 1-2 days before the M6.2 foreshock and the M6.5 main shock on Oct 30, 2016. Both ground and satellite data have in common that they were evident in about the last ten days before the M6.2 foreshock of Aug 24 and continuously up to the main shock of Oct 30, although the radon variations started 2 months earlier. We examined the possible correlation between different pre-earthquake signals in the frame of a multidisciplinary investigation of Lithosphere -Atmosphere -Ionosphere coupling concept.

3-D Dynamic rupture simulation for the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence: Foreshocks and M6 dynamically triggered event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, R.; Aoki, Y.; Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.; Matsumoto, S.; Nishimura, T.

2016-12-01

A couple of interesting earthquake rupture phenomena were observed associated with the sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence. The sequence includes the April 15, 2016, Mw 7.0, mainshock, which was preceded by multiple M6-class foreshock. The mainshock mainly broke the Futagawa fault segment striking NE-SW direction extending over 50km, and it further triggered a M6-class earthquake beyond the distance more than 50km to the northeast (Uchide et al., 2016, submitted), where an active volcano is situated. Compiling the data of seismic analysis and InSAR, we presumed this dynamic triggering event occurred on an active fault known as Yufuin fault (Ando et al., 2016, JPGU general assembly). It is also reported that the coseismic slip was significantly large at a shallow portion of Futagawa Fault near Aso volcano. Since the seismogenic depth becomes significantly shallower in these two areas, we presume the geothermal anomaly play a role as well as the elasto-dynamic processes associated with the coseismic rupture. In this study, we conducted a set of fully dynamic simulations of the earthquake rupture process by assuming the inferred 3D fault geometry and the regional stress field obtained referring the stress tensor inversion. As a result, we showed that the dynamic rupture process was mainly controlled by the irregularity of the fault geometry subjected to the gently varying regional stress field. The foreshocks ruptures have been arrested at the juncture of the branch faults. We also show that the dynamic triggering of M-6 class earthquakes occurred along the Yufuin fault segment (located 50 km NE) because of the strong stress transient up to a few hundreds of kPa due to the rupture directivity effect of the M-7 event. It is also shown that the geothermal condition may lead to the susceptible condition of the dynamic triggering by considering the plastic shear zone on the down dip extension of the Yufuin segment, situated in the vicinity of an active volcano.

Characteristics of Energetic Particle Acceleration in Hot Flow Anomalies Observed by MMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D. L.; Schwartz, S. J.; Wilson, L. B., III; Liu, T. Z.; Osmane, A.; Fennell, J. F.; Blake, J. B.; Jaynes, A. N.; Goodrich, K.; Mauk, B.; Gershman, D. J.; Avanov, L. A.; Strangeway, R. J.; Torbert, R. B.; Burch, J. L.; Leonard, T. W.

2017-12-01

During its orbital transits with apogees on Earth's dayside, NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission captured high resolution observations from several transient ion foreshock phenomena, including multiple hot flow anomalies (HFAs). With MMS' four identically instrumented spacecraft, those events offer unprecedented multipoint observations and resolution of plasma, energetic particles, and electric and magnetic fields and waves within and around HFAs. In this presentation, we compare and contrast the geometries and characteristics of fully-developed HFAs observed by MMS in the interest of determining which HFAs are most efficient at accelerating energetic particles (i.e. >1 to 100s of keV electrons, protons, and heavy ions) and how those HFAs may do so. In particular, we focus on: 1) the orientation of the fast magnetosonic shocks and wave activity that form at the upstream edge of HFAs and 2) how the unique structures and activity characteristic of HFAs may result in enhanced acceleration of energetic particles via shock acceleration processes and shock-shock interactions between the HFA shock and Earth's bow shock. The results of this study are of interest to previous studies of foreshock transients from missions such as THEMIS and Cluster, are relevant to the dayside science objectives of the MMS extended mission, and may have implications for energetic particle acceleration at other astrophysical shocks throughout the Universe.

Effect of Upstream ULF Waves on the Energetic Ion Diffusion at the Earth's Foreshock. I. Theory and Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otsuka, Fumiko; Matsukiyo, Shuichi; Kis, Arpad; Nakanishi, Kento; Hada, Tohru

2018-02-01

Field-aligned diffusion of energetic ions in the Earth’s foreshock is investigated by using the quasi-linear theory (QLT) and test particle simulation. Non-propagating MHD turbulence in the solar wind rest frame is assumed to be purely transverse with respect to the background field. We use a turbulence model based on a multi-power-law spectrum including an intense peak that corresponds to upstream ULF waves resonantly generated by the field-aligned beam (FAB). The presence of the ULF peak produces a concave shape of the diffusion coefficient when it is plotted versus the ion energy. The QLT including the effect of the ULF wave explains the simulation result well, when the energy density of the turbulent magnetic field is 1% of that of the background magnetic field and the power-law index of the wave spectrum is less than 2. The numerically obtained e-folding distances from 10 to 32 keV ions match with the observational values in the event discussed in the companion paper, which contains an intense ULF peak in the spectra generated by the FAB. Evolution of the power spectrum of the ULF waves when approaching the shock significantly affects the energy dependence of the e-folding distance.

Foreshock and aftershocks in simple earthquake models.

PubMed

Kazemian, J; Tiampo, K F; Klein, W; Dominguez, R

2015-02-27

Many models of earthquake faults have been introduced that connect Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling to triggering processes. However, natural earthquake fault systems are composed of a variety of different geometries and materials and the associated heterogeneity in physical properties can cause a variety of spatial and temporal behaviors. This raises the question of how the triggering process and the structure interact to produce the observed phenomena. Here we present a simple earthquake fault model based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen and Rundle-Jackson-Brown cellular automata models with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or asperity cells, into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the model that mimics that seen in natural fault systems along with GR scaling. In addition, we observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a main shock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism.

Catalog of Oroville, California, earthquakes; June 7, 1975 to July 31, 1976

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mantis, Constance; Lindh, Allan; Savage, William; Marks, Shirley

1979-01-01

On August 1, 1975, at 2020 GMT a magnitude 5.7 (ML) earthquake occurred 15 km south of Oroville, California, in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada. It was preceded by 61 foreshocks that began on June 7, 1975, and was followed by thousands of aftershocks. Several studies have reported locations or analyses of various subsets of the Oroville sequence, including Morrison and others (1975), Savage and others (1975), Lester and others (1975), Toppozada and others (1975), Ryall and others (1975), Bufe and others (1976), Morrison and others (1976), and Lahr and others (1976). In this report arrival time data have been compiled from the original records at several institutions to produce a single catalog of the Oroville sequence from June 7, 1975, through July 31, 1976. This study has four objectives: to compile a list of earthquakes in the Oroville sequence that is as complete as possible above the minimum magnitude threshold of approximately 1.0;to determine accurate and uniform hypocentral coordinates for the earthquakes;to determine reliable and consistent magnitude values for the sequence; andto provide a statistically uniform basis for further investigation of the physical processes involved in the Oroville sequence as revealed by the parameters of the foreshocks and aftershocks.The basis and procedures for the data analysis are described in this report.

Modeling Aftershocks and Foreshocks by Time-Dependent Friction Laws

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lippiello, E.; Landes, F.

2017-12-01

The transition with depth from rate-weakening to rate-strengthening rheology represents a viable mechanism to explain both afterslip and the temporal and spatial organization of aftershocks(Avouac, Annu. Rev. Eart Planet Sci. 2015).On the other hand, elastic models for seismic faults, as the Burridge-Knopoff model, are able to reproduce the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law (de Arcangelis et al., Phys. Rep. 2016). Here we show that the two approaches can be combined in a minimal model containing only a parameter controlling the heterogeneities of the friction force. The key ingredient is the presence of a time-dependent friction on a temporal scale intermediate between the instantaneous scale of fracture propagation and the very slow one of the driving rate. Several features of aftershocks as the GR law, the productivity law, the spatial clustering and the temporal decay of the aftershock number, appear universal properties independent of details of model parameters and friction law. Quantitative agreement with the Omori law constraints the friction law according to a velocity strengthening rheology. The model also provides agreement with recent experimental results on the statistical properties of foreshock occurrence (Lippiello et al. , Pageoph, 2017). We then obtain insights on the nucleation phase preceding mainshocks which we compare with existing models (Ohnaka, Tectonophysics 1992).

The Downshift of Electron Plasma Oscillations in the Electron Foreshock Region.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-10

gested by Fredricks et al. that these frequency variations were caused by electron density fluctuations associated with oblique magnetohydro...Filbert and Kellogg [1979). The equation for the bow shock is, X = 14.6 - 0.0223 (y2 + Z2) (1) where X, Y, and Z are the geocentric solar ecliptic (GSE...an oblique nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic wave, J. Geophys. Res. Lett., 77, 3598, 1972. Grabbe, C. L., A model for chorus associated electrostatic

Formation of gyrotropic and non gyrotropic field-aligned beams in the Earth's quasi-perpendicular Ion Foreshock: Full-particle 2D simulation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savoini, P.; Lembege, B.

2013-12-01

The ion foreshock located upstream of the Earth's bow shock is populated with ions reflected back by the shock front with an high energy gain. In-situ spacecraft measurements have clearly established the existence of two distinct populations in the foreshock upstream of quasi-perpendicular shock region (i.e. for 45° ≤ ΘBn≤ 90°, where ΘBn is the angle between the shock normal and the upstream magnetostatic field): (i) field-aligned (';FAB') ion beams characterized by a gyrotropic distribution, and (ii) gyro-phase bunched (';GPB') ions characterized by a NON gyrotropic distribution, which exhibits a non-vanishing perpendicular bulk velocity. The purpose of the present work is to identify the possible sources of the different backstreaming ions and is based on the use of 2D PIC simulations of a curved shock, where full curvature effects, time of flight effects and both electrons and ions dynamics are fully described by a self consistent approach. Our analysis evidences that the two populations mentionned above may have different origins identified both in terms of interaction time and distance of penetration within the shock front. In particular, ours simulations evidence that "GPB" and ';FAB' populations are characterized by a short (Δinter= 1 to 2 tci) and much larger (Δinter= 1 to 10 tci) interaction time respectively, where τci is the ion upstream gyroperiod. In addition, a deeper statistical analysis of ion trajectories evidences that: (i) both populations can be discriminated in terms of injection angle into the shock front (i.e. defined between the local normal to the shock front and the gyration velocity vector at the time ions reach the front). Such a behavior explains how reflected ions can be splitted in the observed two populations "FAB" and "GPB". (ii) ion trajectories strongly differ between the "FAB" and "GPB" populations at the shock front. In particular, ';FAB' ions suffer multi-bounces whereas ';GPB '; ions make only one bounce. Such differences can explain why the ';FAB' population loses their gyro-phase coherency and become gyrotropic which is not the case for the "GPB". As evidenced by these simulations the origin of both populations can be associated directly to their interaction with the shock front itself and do not require any upstream instability which can be another source for such backstreaming ions.

Foreshocks and aftershocks locations of the 2014 Pisagua, N. Chile earthquake: history of a megathrust earthquake nucleation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Tavera, Hernando; Ryder, Isabelle; Ruiz, Sergio; Thomas, Reece; De Angelis, Silvio; Bondoux, Francis

2015-04-01

The April 2014 Mw 8.1 Pisagua earthquake occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap: a region of the South American subduction zone lying between Arica city and the Mejillones Peninsula. It is believed that this part of the subduction zone has not experienced a large earthquake since 1877. Thanks to the identification of this seismic gap, the north of Chile was well instrumented before the Pisagua earthquake, including the Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) network and the Chilean local network installed by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (CSN). These instruments were able to record the full foreshock and aftershock sequences, allowing a unique opportunity to study the nucleation process of large megathrust earthquakes. To improve azimuthal coverage of the Pisagua seismic sequence, after the earthquake, in collaboration with the Instituto Geofisico del Peru (IGP) we installed a temporary seismic network in south of Peru. The network comprised 12 short-period stations located in the coastal area between Moquegua and Tacna and they were operative from 1st May 2014. We also installed three stations on the slopes of the Ticsiani volcano to monitor any possible change in volcanic activity following the Pisagua earthquake. In this work we analysed the continuous seismic data recorded by CSN and IPOC networks from 1 March to 30 June to obtain the catalogue of the sequence, including foreshocks and aftershocks. Using an automatic algorithm based in STA/LTA we obtained the picks for P and S waves. Association in time and space defined the events and computed an initial location using Hypo71 and the 1D local velocity model. More than 11,000 events were identified with this method for the whole period, but we selected the best resolved events that include more than 7 observed arrivals with at least 2 S picks of them, to relocate these events using NonLinLoc software. For the main events of the sequence we carefully estimate event locations and we obtained their regional the Moment Tensor solutions by 1-D full waveform inversion of the broadband data using ISOLA software. In this work we analysed the evolution of the seismicity during the whole sequence and the spatial relation with coupling observed by previous geodetics studies.

The Seismic Sequence of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales, Ecuador Sarthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leon, S.; Fuenzalida, A.; Bie, L.; Garth, T.; Gonzalez, P. J.; Holt, J.; Rietbrock, A.; Edwards, B.; Regnier, M. M.; Pernoud, M.; Mercerat, E. D.; Perrault, M.; Font, Y.; Alvarado, A. P.; Charvis, P.; Beck, S. L.; Meltzer, A.

2016-12-01

On the 16th April 2016, a Mw 7.8 mega-thrust earthquake occurred in Northern Ecuador, close to the city of Pedernales. The event ruptured an area of 120 x 60 km and was preceded by a Mw 5.0 foreshock, located only 15 km south of the epicentre, and registered 10 minutes before the main event.A few weeks after the main event a large array of instruments was deployed by a collaborative project between the Geophysical Institute of Ecuador (IGEPN), IRIS (USA), Géoazur (France) and the University of Liverpool (UK). This dense seismic network, with more than 70 stations, includes broadband, short period and strong motion instruments and is currently recording the aftershock activity of the earthquake. It is hoped that this data set will give further insights into the structure of the subduction zone mega thrust beneath Ecuador.Using data recorded both on the permanent and the recently deployed network we located and calculated the moment tensor solutions for the foreshock event, and the large aftershocks (M > 5). We analyse the spatial distribution of the seismicity and its relation with the co-seismic slip, estimated by inverting radar satellite interferometry data, and with previous models of inter-seismic coupling (e.g. Chlieh et al., 2014). It is possible to identify two lineations in the aftershock activity located to the north and south of the rupture. Moreover, the geodetic slip model shows that the boundaries of the maximum coseismic slip coincides with the observed lineaments in the aftershocks and with the rupture area of a previous Mw 7.8 event in 1942. This suggests that the features to the north and south may impose a barrier to rupture propagation, creating different segments in the subduction zone beneath Ecuador. In addition, we model the Coulomb stress change caused by the foreshock and mainshock in order to investigate whether this could explain the aftershock distribution and potential earthquake interactions. Previous activity has presented a northward-propagating series of ruptures greater than Mw 7 spaced approximately 20 years apart. An open question is therefore whether the present event is the start of a further series of large magnitude events in northern Ecuador, and/or whether slow slip events/creep south of the rupture have partly accommodated the strain due to subduction.

Constraining Earthquake Source Parameters in Rupture Patches and Rupture Barriers on Gofar Transform Fault, East Pacific Rise from Ocean Bottom Seismic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moyer, P. A.; Boettcher, M. S.; McGuire, J. J.; Collins, J. A.

2015-12-01

On Gofar transform fault on the East Pacific Rise (EPR), Mw ~6.0 earthquakes occur every ~5 years and repeatedly rupture the same asperity (rupture patch), while the intervening fault segments (rupture barriers to the largest events) only produce small earthquakes. In 2008, an ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) deployment successfully captured the end of a seismic cycle, including an extensive foreshock sequence localized within a 10 km rupture barrier, the Mw 6.0 mainshock and its aftershocks that occurred in a ~10 km rupture patch, and an earthquake swarm located in a second rupture barrier. Here we investigate whether the inferred variations in frictional behavior along strike affect the rupture processes of 3.0 < M < 4.5 earthquakes by determining source parameters for 100 earthquakes recorded during the OBS deployment.Using waveforms with a 50 Hz sample rate from OBS accelerometers, we calculate stress drop using an omega-squared source model, where the weighted average corner frequency is derived from an empirical Green's function (EGF) method. We obtain seismic moment by fitting the omega-squared source model to the low frequency amplitude of individual spectra and account for attenuation using Q obtained from a velocity model through the foreshock zone. To ensure well-constrained corner frequencies, we require that the Brune [1970] model provides a statistically better fit to each spectral ratio than a linear model and that the variance is low between the data and model. To further ensure that the fit to the corner frequency is not influenced by resonance of the OBSs, we require a low variance close to the modeled corner frequency. Error bars on corner frequency were obtained through a grid search method where variance is within 10% of the best-fit value. Without imposing restrictive selection criteria, slight variations in corner frequencies from rupture patches and rupture barriers are not discernable. Using well-constrained source parameters, we find an average stress drop of 5.7 MPa in the aftershock zone compared to values of 2.4 and 2.9 MPa in the foreshock and swarm zones respectively. The higher stress drops in the rupture patch compared to the rupture barriers reflect systematic differences in along strike fault zone properties on Gofar transform fault.

The 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake Sequence, Baja California, Mexico and Southernmost California, USA: Active Seismotectonics along the Mexican Pacific Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauksson, Egill; Stock, Joann; Hutton, Kate; Yang, Wenzheng; Vidal-Villegas, J. Antonio; Kanamori, Hiroo

2011-08-01

The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence started with a few foreshocks in March 2010, and a second sequence of 15 foreshocks of M > 2 (up to M4.4) that occurred during the 24 h preceding the mainshock. The foreshocks occurred along a north-south trend near the mainshock epicenter. The M w 7.2 mainshock on April 4 exhibited complex faulting, possibly starting with a ~M6 normal faulting event, followed ~15 s later by the main event, which included simultaneous normal and right-lateral strike-slip faulting. The aftershock zone extends for 120 km from the south end of the Elsinore fault zone north of the US-Mexico border almost to the northern tip of the Gulf of California. The waveform-relocated aftershocks form two abutting clusters, each about 50 km long, as well as a 10 km north-south aftershock zone just north of the epicenter of the mainshock. Even though the Baja California data are included, the magnitude of completeness and the hypocentral errors increase gradually with distance south of the international border. The spatial distribution of large aftershocks is asymmetric with five M5+ aftershocks located to the south of the mainshock, and only one M5.7 aftershock, but numerous smaller aftershocks to the north. Further, the northwest aftershock cluster exhibits complex faulting on both northwest and northeast planes. Thus, the aftershocks also express a complex pattern of stress release along strike. The overall rate of decay of the aftershocks is similar to the rate of decay of a generic California aftershock sequence. In addition, some triggered seismicity was recorded along the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults to the north, but significant northward migration of aftershocks has not occurred. The synthesis of the El Mayor-Cucapah sequence reveals transtensional regional tectonics, including the westward growth of the Mexicali Valley and the transfer of Pacific-North America plate motion from the Gulf of California in the south into the southernmost San Andreas fault system to the north. We propose that the location of the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, as well as the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes, may have been controlled by the bends in the plate boundary.

Some facts about aftershocks to large earthquakes in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucile M.; Reasenberg, Paul A.

1996-01-01

Earthquakes occur in clusters. After one earthquake happens, we usually see others at nearby (or identical) locations. To talk about this phenomenon, seismologists coined three terms foreshock , mainshock , and aftershock. In any cluster of earthquakes, the one with the largest magnitude is called the mainshock; earthquakes that occur before the mainshock are called foreshocks while those that occur after the mainshock are called aftershocks. A mainshock will be redefined as a foreshock if a subsequent event in the cluster has a larger magnitude. Aftershock sequences follow predictable patterns. That is, a sequence of aftershocks follows certain global patterns as a group, but the individual earthquakes comprising the group are random and unpredictable. This relationship between the pattern of a group and the randomness (stochastic nature) of the individuals has a close parallel in actuarial statistics. We can describe the pattern that aftershock sequences tend to follow with well-constrained equations. However, we must keep in mind that the actual aftershocks are only probabilistically described by these equations. Once the parameters in these equations have been estimated, we can determine the probability of aftershocks occurring in various space, time and magnitude ranges as described below. Clustering of earthquakes usually occurs near the location of the mainshock. The stress on the mainshock's fault changes drastically during the mainshock and that fault produces most of the aftershocks. This causes a change in the regional stress, the size of which decreases rapidly with distance from the mainshock. Sometimes the change in stress caused by the mainshock is great enough to trigger aftershocks on other, nearby faults. While there is no hard "cutoff" distance beyond which an earthquake is totally incapable of triggering an aftershock, the vast majority of aftershocks are located close to the mainshock. As a rule of thumb, we consider earthquakes to be aftershocks if they are located within a characteristic distance from the mainshock. This distance is usually taken to be one or two times the length of the fault rupture associated with the mainshock. For example, if the mainshock ruptured a 100 km length of a fault, subsequent earthquakes up to 100-200 km away from the mainshock rupture would be considered aftershocks. The fault rupture length was approximately 15 km in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and 430 km in the great 1906 earthquake.

Real-time Seismicity Evaluation as a Tool for the Earthquake and Tsunami Short-Term Hazard Assessment (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, G. A.

2010-12-01

Seismic activity is a 3-D process varying in the space-time-magnitude domains. When in a target area the short-term activity deviates significantly from the usual (background) seismicity, then the modes of activity may include swarms, temporary quiescence, foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences, doublets and multiplets. This implies that making decision for civil protection purposes requires short-term seismic hazard assessment and evaluation. When a sizable earthquake takes place the critical question is about the nature of the event: mainshock or a foreshock which foreshadows the occurrence of a biger one? Also, the seismicity increase or decrease in a target area may signify either precursory changes or just transient seismicity variations (e.g. swarms) which do not conclude with a strong earthquake. Therefore, the real-time seismicity evaluation is the backbone of the short-term hazard assessment. The algorithm FORMA (Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock) is presented which detects and updates automatically and in near real-time significant variations of the seismicity according to the earthquake data flow from the monitoring center. The detection of seismicity variations is based on an expert system which for a given target area indicates the mode of seismicity from the variation of two parameters: the seismicity rate, r, and the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation. Alert levels are produced according to the significance levels of the changes of r and b. The good performance of FORMA was verified retrospectively in several earthquake cases, e.g. for the L’ Aquila, Italy, 2009 earthquake sequence (Mmax 6.3) (Papadopoulos et al., 2010). Real-time testing was executed during January 2010 with the strong earthquake activity (Mmax 5.6) in the Corinth Rift, Central Greece. Evaluation outputs were publicly documented on a nearly daily basis with successful results. Evaluation of coastal and submarine earthquake activity is also of crucial importance for the short-term hazard assessment for near-field tsunamis, given that the time constraints for early warning is on the order of few minutes up to less than 1 hour. It is proposed that warning procedures for near-field tsunamis in a target area may benefit by combining a tsunami decision matrix with short-term seismic hazard evaluation. Simulated procedures incorporating retrospective tests in the Mediterranean Sea proved encouraging.

Study of the relation between Pc 3 micropulsations and magnetosheath fluctuations and of the multisatellite, multimeasurement investigation of the earth's bow shock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The structure and direction of bow shock waves and the occurence of Pc 3, 4 micropulsations were investigated. An observational description is given of a quasi-parallel structure in a plasma parameter regime. The use of approximation to estimate the thickness of thin, nearly perpendicular bow shocks at supralaminar Mach numbers is discussed. The pattern of energies of backstreaming protons in the foreshock are predicted.

Recovery process of shear wave velocities of volcanic soil in central Mashiki Town after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake revealed by intermittent measurements of microtremor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hata, Yoshiya; Yoshimi, Masayuki; Goto, Hiroyuki; Hosoya, Takashi; Morikawa, Hitoshi; Kagawa, Takao

2017-05-01

An earthquake of JMA magnitude 6.5 (foreshock) hit Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, at 21:26 JST on April 14, 2016. Subsequently, an earthquake of JMA magnitude 7.3 (main shock) hit Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures at 1:25 JST on April 16, 2016. The two epicenters were located adjacent to central Mashiki Town, and both events caused significantly strong motions. The heavy damage including collapse of residential houses was concentrated in "Sandwich Area" between Prefectural Route 28 and Akitsu River. During the main shock, we have successfully observed strong motions at TMP03 in Sandwich Area. Simultaneously with installation of the seismograph at TMP03 on April 15, 2016, between the foreshock and the main shock, a microtremor measurement was taken. After the main shock, intermittent measurements of microtremor at TMP03 were also taken within December 6, 2016. As the result, recovery process of shear wave velocities of volcanic soil at TMP03 before/after the main shock was revealed by time history of peak frequencies of the microtremor H/V spectra. Using results of original PS logging tests at proximity site of TMP03 on July 28, 2016, the applicability for the shear wave velocities to TMP03 was then confirmed based on similarity between the theoretical and monitored H/V spectra.

Listening to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peng, Zhigang; Aiken, Chastity; Kilb, Debi; Shelly, David R.; Enescu, Bogdan

2012-01-01

The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake on 11 March 2011 is the largest earthquake to date in Japan’s modern history and is ranked as the fourth largest earthquake in the world since 1900. This earthquake occurred within the northeast Japan subduction zone (Figure 1), where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate at rate of ∼8–9 cm/yr (DeMets et al. 2010). This type of extremely large earthquake within a subduction zone is generally termed a “megathrust” earthquake. Strong shaking from this magnitude 9 earthquake engulfed the entire Japanese Islands, reaching a maximum acceleration ∼3 times that of gravity (3 g). Two days prior to the main event, a foreshock sequence occurred, including one earthquake of magnitude 7.2. Following the main event, numerous aftershocks occurred around the main slip region; the largest of these was magnitude 7.9. The entire foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks sequence was well recorded by thousands of sensitive seismometers and geodetic instruments across Japan, resulting in the best-recorded megathrust earthquake in history. This devastating earthquake resulted in significant damage and high death tolls caused primarily by the associated large tsunami. This tsunami reached heights of more than 30 m, and inundation propagated inland more than 5 km from the Pacific coast, which also caused a nuclear crisis that is still affecting people’s lives in certain regions of Japan.

Effect of field-aligned-beam in parallel diffusion of energetic particles in the Earth's foreshock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsukiyo, S.; Nakanishi, K.; Otsuka, F.; Kis, A.; Lemperger, I.; Hada, T.

2016-12-01

Diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) is one of the plausible acceleration mechanisms of cosmic rays. In the standard DSA model the partial density of the accelerated particles, diffused into upstream, exponentially decreases as the distance to the shock increases. Kis et al. (GRL, 31, L20801, 2004) examined the density gradients of energetic ions upstream of the bow shock with high accuracy by using Cluster data. They estimated the diffusion coefficients of energetic ions for the event in February 18, 2003 and showed that the obtained diffusion coefficients are significantly smaller than those estimated in the past statistical study. This implies that particle acceleration at the bow shock can be more efficient than considered before. Here, we focus on the effect of the field-aligned-beam (FAB) which is often observed in the foreshock, and examine how the FAB affects the efficiency of diffusion of the energetic ions by performing test particle simulations. The upstream turbulence is given by the superposition of parallel Alfven waves with power-law energy spectrum with random phase approximation. In the spectrum we further add a peak corresponding to the waves resonantly generated by the FAB. The dependence of the diffusion coefficient on the presence of the FAB as well as total energy of the turbulence, power-law index of the turbulence, and intensity of FAB oriented waves are discussed.

Ongoing data reduction, theoretical studies and supporting research in magnetospheric physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scarf, F. L.; Greenstadt, E. W.

1984-01-01

Data from ISEE-3, Pioneer Venus Orbiter, and Voyager 1 and 2 were analyzed. The predictability of local shock macrostructure at ISEE-1, at the Earth's bow shock, from solar wind measurements made up-stream by ISEE-3, was conducted using computer graphic format. Morphology of quasi-parallel shock was reviewed. The review attempted to interrelate various measurements and computations involving the q-parallel structure and foreshock elements connected to it. A new classification for q-parallel morphology was suggested.

Energies of backstreaming protons in the foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenstadt, E. W.

1976-01-01

A predicted pattern of energy vs detector location in the cislunar region is displayed for protons of zero pitch angle traveling upstream away from the quasi-parallel bow shock. The pattern is implied by upstream wave boundary properties. In the solar ecliptic, protons are estimated to have a minimum of 1.1 times the solar wind bulk energy E sub SW when the wave boundary is in the early morning sector and a maximum of 8.2 E sub SW when the boundary is near the predawn flank.

The Pocatello Valley, Idaho, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rogers, A. M.; Langer, C.J.; Bucknam, R.C.

1975-01-01

A Richter magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred at 8:31 p.m mountain daylight time on March 27, 1975, near the Utah-Idaho border in Pocatello Valley. The epicenter of the main shock was located at 42.094° N, 112.478° W, and had a focal depth of 5.5 km. This earthquake was the largest in the continental United States since the destructive San Fernando earthquake of February 1971. The main shock was preceded by a magnitude 4.5 foreshock on March 26. 

Parametric decay of current-driven Langmuir waves in plateau plasmas: Relevance to solar wind and foreshock events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauer, Konrad; Malaspina, David M.; Pulupa, Marc; Salem, Chadi S.

2017-07-01

Langmuir amplitude modulation in association with type III radio bursts is a well-known phenomenon since the beginning of space observations. It is commonly attributed to the superposition of beam-excited Langmuir waves and their backscattered counterparts as a result of parametric decay. The dilemma, however, is the discrepancy between fast beam relaxation and long-lasting Langmuir wave activity. Instead of starting with an unstable electron beam, our focus in this paper is on the nonlinear response of Langmuir oscillations that are driven after beam stabilization by the still persisting current of the (stable) two-electron plasma. The velocity distribution function of the second population forms a plateau (index h) with a point at which ∂fh/∂v ˜0 associated with weak damping over a more or less extended wave number range k. As shown by particle-in-cell simulations, this so-called plateau plasma drives primarily Langmuir oscillations at the plasma frequency (ωe) with k = 0 over long times without remarkable change of the distribution function. These Langmuir oscillations act as a pump wave for parametric decay by which an electron-acoustic wave slightly below ωe and a counterstreaming ion-acoustic wave are generated. Both high-frequency waves have nearly the same amplitude, which is given by the product of plateau density and velocity. Beating of these two wave types leads to pronounced Langmuir amplitude modulation, in reasonable agreement with solar wind and terrestrial foreshock observations made by the Wind spacecraft.

Analysis of the Seismicity Preceding Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stallone, A.; Marzocchi, W.

2016-12-01

The most common earthquake forecasting models assume that the magnitude of the next earthquake is independent from the past. This feature is probably one of the most severe limitations of the capability to forecast large earthquakes.In this work, we investigate empirically on this specific aspect, exploring whether spatial-temporal variations in seismicity encode some information on the magnitude of the future earthquakes. For this purpose, and to verify the universality of the findings, we consider seismic catalogs covering quite different space-time-magnitude windows, such as the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory (TABOO) catalogue, and the California and Japanese seismic catalog. Our method is inspired by the statistical methodology proposed by Zaliapin (2013) to distinguish triggered and background earthquakes, using the nearest-neighbor clustering analysis in a two-dimension plan defined by rescaled time and space. In particular, we generalize the metric based on the nearest-neighbor to a metric based on the k-nearest-neighbors clustering analysis that allows us to consider the overall space-time-magnitude distribution of k-earthquakes (k-foreshocks) which anticipate one target event (the mainshock); then we analyze the statistical properties of the clusters identified in this rescaled space. In essence, the main goal of this study is to verify if different classes of mainshock magnitudes are characterized by distinctive k-foreshocks distribution. The final step is to show how the findings of this work may (or not) improve the skill of existing earthquake forecasting models.

The Extended Concept Of Symmetropy And Its Application To Earthquakes And Acoustic Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanjo, K.; Yodogawa, E.

2003-12-01

There is the notion of symmetropy that can be considered as a powerful tool to measure quantitatively entropic heterogeneity regarding symmetry of a pattern. It can be regarded as a quantitative measure to extract the feature of asymmetry of a pattern (Yodogawa, 1982; Nanjo et al., 2000, 2001, 2002 in press). In previous studies, symmetropy was estimated for the spatial distributions of acoustic emissions generated before the ultimate whole fracture of a rock specimen in the laboratory experiment and for the spatial distributions of earthquakes in the seismic source model with self-organized criticality (SOC). In each of these estimations, the outline of the region in which symmetropy is estimated for a pattern is determined to be equal to that of the rock specimen in which acoustic emissions are generated or that of the SOC seismic source model from which earthquakes emerge. When local seismicities like aftershocks, foreshocks and earthquake swarms in the Earth's crust are considered, it is difficult to determine objectively the outline of the region characterizing these local seismicities without the need of subjectiveness. So, the original concept of symmetropy is not appropriate to be directly applied to such local seismicities and the proper modification of the original one is needed. Here, we introduce the notion of symmetropy for the nonlinear geosciences and extend it for the purpose of the application to local seismicities such as aftershocks, foreshocks and earthquake swarms. We employ the extended concept to the spatial distributions of acoustic emissions generated in a previous laboratory experiment where the failure process in a brittle granite sample can be stabilized by controlling axial stress to maintain a constant rate of acoustic emissions and, as a result, detailed view of fracture nucleation and growth was observed. Moreover, it is applied to the temporal variations of spatial distributions of aftershocks and foreshocks of the main shocks, using natural observable data of earthquakes in and around Japan. Our results show the successful applicability of the extended concept of symmetropy to earthquakes and acoustic emissions. Furthermore, it is pointed out that the concept of symmetropy or the extended one of it might be adapted to any pattern recognition in many fields of science, particularly in the nonlinear geosciences and the sciences of complexity. References: Yodogawa, 1982, Percept. Psychophys., v. 32, p. 230-240; Nanjo et al., 2000, Forma, v. 15, p. 95-101; Nanjo et al., 2001, Forma, v. 16, p. 213-224; Nanjo et al., 2002 in press, Symmetry: Art and Science, v. 2.

Hot Flow Anomalies at Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collinson, G. A.; Sibeck, David Gary; Boardsen, Scott A.; Moore, Tom; Barabash, S.; Masters, A.; Shane, N.; Slavin, J.A.; Coates, A.J.; Zhang, T. L.;

Nonlinear wave particle interaction in the Earth's foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mazelle, C.; LeQueau, D.; Meziane, K.; Lin, R. P.; Parks, G.; Reme, H.; Sanderson, T.; Lepping, R. P.

1997-01-01

The possibility that ion beams could provide a free energy source for driving an ion/ion instability responsible for the ULF wave occurrence is investigated. For this, the wave dispersion relation with the observed parameters is solved. Secondly, it is shown that the ring-like distributions could then be produced by a coherent nonlinear wave-particle interaction. It tends to trap the ions into narrow cells in velocity space centered around a well-defined pitch-angle, directly related to the saturation wave amplitude in the analytical theory. The theoretical predictions with the observations are compared.

Trapping saturation of the bump-on-tail instability and electrostatic harmonic excitation in earth's foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klimas, Alexander J.

1990-01-01

The Vlasov simulation is used to examine the trapping saturation of the bump-on-tail instability both with and without mode-mode coupling and subsequent harmonic excitation. It is found that adding the pumped harmonic modes leads to a significant difference in the behavior of the phase-space distribution function near the unstable bump at the saturation time of the instability. The pumped modes permit rapid plateau formation on the space-averaged velocity distribution, in effect preventing the onset of the quasi-linear velocity-diffusion saturation mechanism.

Nonlinear Wave-Particle Interaction: Implications for Newborn Planetary and Backstreaming Proton Velocity Distribution Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanelli, N.; Mazelle, C.; Meziane, K.

2018-02-01

Seen from the solar wind (SW) reference frame, the presence of newborn planetary protons upstream from the Martian and Venusian bow shocks and SW protons reflected from each of them constitutes two sources of nonthermal proton populations. In both cases, the resulting proton velocity distribution function is highly unstable and capable of giving rise to ultralow frequency quasi-monochromatic electromagnetic plasma waves. When these instabilities take place, the resulting nonlinear waves are convected by the SW and interact with nonthermal protons located downstream from the wave generation region (upstream from the bow shock), playing a predominant role in their dynamics. To improve our understanding of these phenomena, we study the interaction between a charged particle and a large-amplitude monochromatic circularly polarized electromagnetic wave propagating parallel to a background magnetic field, from first principles. We determine the number of fix points in velocity space, their stability, and their dependence on different wave-particle parameters. Particularly, we determine the temporal evolution of a charged particle in the pitch angle-gyrophase velocity plane under nominal conditions expected for backstreaming protons in planetary foreshocks and for newborn planetary protons in the upstream regions of Venus and Mars. In addition, the inclusion of wave ellipticity effects provides an explanation for pitch angle distributions of suprathermal protons observed at the Earth's foreshock, reported in previous studies. These analyses constitute a mean to evaluate if nonthermal proton velocity distribution functions observed at these plasma environments present signatures that can be understood in terms of nonlinear wave-particle processes.

On nonstationarity and rippling of the quasiperpendicular zone of the Earth bow shock: Cluster observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobzin, V. V.; Krasnoselskikh, V. V.; Musatenko, K.; Dudok de Wit, T.

2008-09-01

A new method for remote sensing of the quasiperpendicular part of the bow shock surface is presented. The method is based on analysis of high frequency electric field fluctuations corresponding to Langmuir, upshifted, and downshifted oscillations in the electron foreshock. Langmuir waves usually have maximum intensity at the upstream boundary of this region. All these waves are generated by energetic electrons accelerated by quasiperpendicular zone of the shock front. Nonstationary behavior of the shock, in particular due to rippling, should result in modulation of energetic electron fluxes, thereby giving rise to variations of Langmuir waves intensity. For upshifted and downshifted oscillations, the variations of both intensity and central frequency can be observed. For the present study, WHISPER measurements of electric field spectra obtained aboard Cluster spacecraft are used to choose 48 crossings of the electron foreshock boundary with dominating Langmuir waves and to perform for the first time a statistical analysis of nonstationary behavior of quasiperpendicular zone of the Earth's bow shock. Analysis of hidden periodicities in plasma wave energy reveals shock front nonstationarity in the frequency range 0.33 fBi

Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.

2014-01-01

We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

A multispacecraft event study of Pc5 ultralow-frequency waves in the magnetosphere and their external drivers

DOE PAGES

Wang, Chih-Ping; Thorne, Richard; Liu, Terry Z.; ...

2017-05-09

We investigate a quiet time event of magnetospheric Pc5 ultralow-frequency (ULF) waves and their likely external drivers using multiple spacecraft observations. Enhancements of electric and magnetic field perturbations in two narrow frequency bands, 1.5–2 mHz and 3.5–4 mHz, were observed over a large radial distance range from r ~ 5 to 11 RE. During the first half of this event, perturbations were mainly observed in the transverse components and only in the 3.5–4 mHz band. In comparison, enhancements were stronger during the second half in both transverse and compressional components and in both frequency bands. No indication of field linemore » resonances was found for these magnetic field perturbations. Perturbations in these two bands were also observed in the magnetosheath, but not in the solar wind dynamic pressure perturbations. For the first interval, good correlations between the flow perturbations in the magnetosphere and magnetosheath and an indirect signature for Kelvin-Helmholtz (K-H) vortices suggest K-H surface waves as the driver. For the second interval, good correlations are found between the magnetosheath dynamic pressure perturbations, magnetopause deformation, and magnetospheric waves, all in good correspondence to interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) discontinuities. The characteristics of these perturbations can be explained by being driven by foreshock perturbations resulting from these IMF discontinuities. This event shows that even during quiet periods, K-H-unstable magnetopause and ion foreshock perturbations can combine to create a highly dynamic magnetospheric ULF wave environment« less

Theory of Type 3 and Type 2 Solar Radio Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, P. A.; Cairns, I. H.

2000-01-01

The main features of some current theories of type III and type II bursts are outlined. Among the most common solar radio bursts, type III bursts are produced at frequencies of 10 kHz to a few GHz when electron beams are ejected from solar active regions, entering the corona and solar wind at typical speeds of 0.1c. These beams provide energy to generate Langmuir waves via a streaming instability. In the current stochastic-growth theory, Langmuir waves grow in clumps associated with random low-frequency density fluctuations, leading to the observed spiky waves. Nonlinear wave-wave interactions then lead to secondary emission of observable radio waves near the fundamental and harmonic of the plasma frequency. Subsequent scattering processes modify the dynamic radio spectra, while back-reaction of Langmuir waves on the beam causes it to fluctuate about a state of marginal stability. Theories based on these ideas can account for the observed properties of type III bursts, including the in situ waves and the dynamic spectra of the radiation. Type 11 bursts are associated with shock waves propagating through the corona and interplanetary space and radiating from roughly 30 kHz to 1 GHz. Their basic emission mechanisms are believed to be similar to those of type III events and radiation from Earth's foreshock. However, several sub-classes of type II bursts may exist with different source regions and detailed characteristics. Theoretical models for type II bursts are briefly reviewed, focusing on a model with emission from a foreshock region upstream of the shock for which observational evidence has just been reported.

Voyager 1 in the foreshock, termination shock, and heliosheath.

PubMed

Decker, R B; Krimigis, S M; Roelof, E C; Hill, M E; Armstrong, T P; Gloeckler, G; Hamilton, D C; Lanzerotti, L J

2005-09-23

Voyager 1 (V1) began measuring precursor energetic ions and electrons from the heliospheric termination shock (TS) in July 2002. During the ensuing 2.5 years, average particle intensities rose as V1 penetrated deeper into the energetic particle foreshock of the TS. Throughout 2004, V1 observed even larger, fluctuating intensities of ions from 40 kiloelectron volts (keV) to >/=50 megaelectron volts per nucleon and of electrons from >26 keV to >/=350 keV. On day 350 of 2004 (2004/350), V1 observed an intensity spike of ions and electrons that was followed by a sustained factor of 10 increase at the lowest energies and lesser increases at higher energies, larger than any intensities since V1 was at 15 astronomical units in 1982. The estimated solar wind radial flow speed was positive (outward) at approximately +100 kilometers per second (km s(-1)) from 2004/352 until 2005/018, when the radial flows became predominantly negative (sunward) and fluctuated between approximately -50 and 0 km s(-1) until about 2005/110; they then became more positive, with recent values (2005/179) of approximately +50 km s(-1). The energetic proton spectrum averaged over the postshock period is apparently dominated by strongly heated interstellar pickup ions. We interpret these observations as evidence that V1 was crossed by the TS on 2004/351 (during a tracking gap) at 94.0 astronomical units, evidently as the shock was moving radially inward in response to decreasing solar wind ram pressure, and that V1 has remained in the heliosheath until at least mid-2005.

A multispacecraft event study of Pc5 ultralow-frequency waves in the magnetosphere and their external drivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Chih-Ping; Thorne, Richard; Liu, Terry Z.

We investigate a quiet time event of magnetospheric Pc5 ultralow-frequency (ULF) waves and their likely external drivers using multiple spacecraft observations. Enhancements of electric and magnetic field perturbations in two narrow frequency bands, 1.5–2 mHz and 3.5–4 mHz, were observed over a large radial distance range from r ~ 5 to 11 RE. During the first half of this event, perturbations were mainly observed in the transverse components and only in the 3.5–4 mHz band. In comparison, enhancements were stronger during the second half in both transverse and compressional components and in both frequency bands. No indication of field linemore » resonances was found for these magnetic field perturbations. Perturbations in these two bands were also observed in the magnetosheath, but not in the solar wind dynamic pressure perturbations. For the first interval, good correlations between the flow perturbations in the magnetosphere and magnetosheath and an indirect signature for Kelvin-Helmholtz (K-H) vortices suggest K-H surface waves as the driver. For the second interval, good correlations are found between the magnetosheath dynamic pressure perturbations, magnetopause deformation, and magnetospheric waves, all in good correspondence to interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) discontinuities. The characteristics of these perturbations can be explained by being driven by foreshock perturbations resulting from these IMF discontinuities. This event shows that even during quiet periods, K-H-unstable magnetopause and ion foreshock perturbations can combine to create a highly dynamic magnetospheric ULF wave environment« less

THEMIS Observations of Unusual Bow Shock Motion, Attending a Transient Magnetospheric Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korotova, Galina; Sibeck, David; Omidi, N.; Angelopoulos, V.

2013-01-01

We present a multipoint case study of solar wind and magnetospheric observations during a transient magnetospheric compression at 2319 UT on October 15, 2008. We use high-time resolution magnetic field and plasma data from the THEMIS and GOES-11/12 spacecraft to show that this transient event corresponded to an abrupt rotation in the IMF orientation, a change in the location of the foreshock, and transient outward bow shock motion. We employ results from a global hybrid code model to reconcile the observations indicating transient inward magnetopause motion with the outward bow shock motion.

Upstream waves in Saturn's foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavassano Cattaneo, M. B.; Cattaneo, P.; Moreno, G.; Lepping, R. P.

1991-01-01

An analysis based on plasma and magnetic-field data obtained from Voyager 1 during its Saturn encounter is reported. The plasma data provided every 96 sec and magnetic-field data averaged over 48 sec are utilized. The evidence of upstream waves at Saturn are detected. The waves have a period, in the spacecraft frame, of about 550 sec and a relative amplitude larger than 0.3, are left- and right-hand elliptically polarized, and propagate at about 30 deg with respect to the average magnetic field. The appearance of the waves is correlated with the spacecraft being magnetically connected to the bow shock.

Seismic quiescence in a frictional earthquake model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Oleg M.; Peyrard, Michel

2018-04-01

We investigate the origin of seismic quiescence with a generalized version of the Burridge-Knopoff model for earthquakes and show that it can be generated by a multipeaked probability distribution of the thresholds at which contacts break. Such a distribution is not assumed a priori but naturally results from the aging of the contacts. We show that the model can exhibit quiescence as well as enhanced foreshock activity, depending on the value of some parameters. This provides a generic understanding for seismic quiescence, which encompasses earlier specific explanations and could provide a pathway for a classification of faults.

Seismicity parameters preceding moderate to major earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Seggern, David; Alexander, Shelton S.; Baag, Chang-Eob

1981-10-01

Seismic events reported in the bulletins of the two large arrays, LASA and NORSAR, were merged with those from the NEIS bulletin for the period 1970-1977. Using a lower cutoff of mb = 5.8, 510 `main shocks' within the P range of LASA or NORSAR were selected for this period; and various seismicity trends prior to them were investigated. A search for definite foreshocks, based on a significantly short time delay to the main shock, revealed that the true rate of foreshock occurrence was less than 20%. Foreshocks are almost exclusively associated with shallow (h < 100 km) main shocks. To establish common features, a method of averaging seismicity from many regions was used to suppress the randomness of the seismic behavior of each region. This averaging shows that the seismicity level around the main shock increases somewhat for 10 days before main shocks; this feature peaks in the last 3-4 hours prior to the main shocks. The averaging also reveals that the mean magnitude of events near the main shock increases prior to main shocks but only by a few hundredths of a magnitude unit. Again by averaging, the seismicity about main shocks is shown to tend with time toward the main shock as its origin time is approached, but the average effect is small (˜10% change). By expanding or contracting each region's time scale before averaging to relate to the magnitude of the main shock, these features are enhanced. Using a new variable to track the departures from both spatial and temporal randomness, the Poisson-like behavior of deeper seismicity (>100 km) was demonstrated. For shallow events (<100 km) this variable reveals numerous instances of clustering and spatial-temporal seismic gaps, with little tendency toward a uniformity of behavior prior to main shocks. A statistical test of the validity of seismic precursors was performed for approximately 90 main shock regions which had sufficient seismicity. Using a five-variable vector (interevent time, interevent distance, magnitude, epicentral distance to main shock, and depth difference relative to main shock) for each event in a `precursory' time window of 500 days before the main shock and for each event in a `normal' time window of 500 days before that, the null hypothesis of equal vector means between the two groups was tested. At 90% confidence level, less than 30% of the main shock regions were thus found to exhibit precursory seismicity changes. Appendices are available with entire article on microfiche. Order from American Geophysical Union, 2000 Florida Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20009. Document J81-007; $1.00. Payment must accompany order.

Foreshocks and aftershocks of Pisagua 2014 earthquake: time and space evolution of megathrust event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Wollam, Jack; Thomas, Reece; de Lima Neto, Oscar; Tavera, Hernando; Garth, Thomas; Ruiz, Sergio

2016-04-01

The 2014 Pisagua earthquake of magnitude 8.2 is the first case in Chile where a foreshock sequence was clearly recorded by a local network, as well all the complete sequence including the mainshock and its aftershocks. The seismicity of the last year before the mainshock include numerous clusters close to the epicentral zone (Ruiz et al; 2014) but it was on 16th March that this activity became stronger with the Mw 6.7 precursory event taking place in front of Iquique coast at 12 km depth. The Pisagua earthquake arrived on 1st April 2015 breaking almost 120 km N-S and two days after a 7.6 aftershock occurred in the south of the rupture, enlarging the zone affected by this sequence. In this work, we analyse the foreshocks and aftershock sequence of Pisagua earthquake, from the spatial and time evolution for a total of 15.764 events that were recorded from the 1st March to 31th May 2015. This event catalogue was obtained from the automatic analyse of seismic raw data of more than 50 stations installed in the north of Chile and the south of Peru. We used the STA/LTA algorithm for the detection of P and S arrival times on the vertical components and then a method of back propagation in a 1D velocity model for the event association and preliminary location of its hypocenters following the algorithm outlined by Rietbrock et al. (2012). These results were then improved by locating with NonLinLoc software using a regional velocity model. We selected the larger events to analyse its moment tensor solution by a full waveform inversion using ISOLA software. In order to understand the process of nucleation and propagation of the Pisagua earthquake, we also analysed the evolution in time of the seismicity of the three months of data. The zone where the precursory events took place was strongly activated two weeks before the mainshock and remained very active until the end of the analysed period with an important quantity of the seismicity located in the upper plate and having variations in its focal mechanisms. The evolution of the Pisagua sequence point out a rupture by steps, that we suggest to be related to the properties of the upper plate, as well as along in the subduction interface. The spatial distribution of seismicity was compared to the inter-seismic coupling of previous studies, the regional bathymetry and the slip distribution of both the mainshock and the Magnitude 7.6 event. The results show an important relation between the low coupling zones and the areas lacking large magnitude events

Complex spatiotemporal evolution of the 2008 Mw 4.9 Mogul earthquake swarm (Reno, Nevada): Interplay of fluid and faulting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruhl, C. J.; Abercrombie, R. E.; Smith, K. D.; Zaliapin, I.

2016-11-01

After approximately 2 months of swarm-like earthquakes in the Mogul neighborhood of west Reno, NV, seismicity rates and event magnitudes increased over several days culminating in an Mw 4.9 dextral strike-slip earthquake on 26 April 2008. Although very shallow, the Mw 4.9 main shock had a different sense of slip than locally mapped dip-slip surface faults. We relocate 7549 earthquakes, calculate 1082 focal mechanisms, and statistically cluster the relocated earthquake catalog to understand the character and interaction of active structures throughout the Mogul, NV earthquake sequence. Rapid temporary instrument deployment provides high-resolution coverage of microseismicity, enabling a detailed analysis of swarm behavior and faulting geometry. Relocations reveal an internally clustered sequence in which foreshocks evolved on multiple structures surrounding the eventual main shock rupture. The relocated seismicity defines a fault-fracture mesh and detailed fault structure from approximately 2-6 km depth on the previously unknown Mogul fault that may be an evolving incipient strike-slip fault zone. The seismicity volume expands before the main shock, consistent with pore pressure diffusion, and the aftershock volume is much larger than is typical for an Mw 4.9 earthquake. We group events into clusters using space-time-magnitude nearest-neighbor distances between events and develop a cluster criterion through randomization of the relocated catalog. Identified clusters are largely main shock-aftershock sequences, without evidence for migration, occurring within the diffuse background seismicity. The migration rate of the largest foreshock cluster and simultaneous background events is consistent with it having triggered, or having been triggered by, an aseismic slip event.

First Satellite Measurement of the ULF Wave Growth Rate in the Ion Foreshock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorfman, Seth

2017-10-01

Waves generated by accelerated particles are important throughout our heliosphere. These particles often gain their energy at shocks via Fermi acceleration. At the Earth's bow shock, this mechanism accelerates ion beams back into the solar wind; the beams can then generate ultra low frequency (ULF) waves via an ion-ion right hand resonant instability. These waves influence the shock structure and particle acceleration, lead to coherent structures in the magnetosheath, and are ideal for non-linear interaction studies relevant to turbulence. We report the first satellite measurement of the ultralow frequency (ULF) wave growth rate in the upstream region of the Earth's bow shock. This is made possible by employing the two ARTEMIS spacecraft orbiting the moon at 60 Earth radii from Earth to characterize crescent-shaped reflected ion beams and relatively monochromatic ULF waves. The event to be presented features spacecraft separation of 2.5 Earth radii (0.9 +/- 0.1 wavelengths) in the solar wind flow direction along a nearly radial interplanetary magnetic field. By contrast, most prior ULF wave observations use spacecraft with insufficient separation to see wave growth and are so close to Earth (within 30 Earth radii) that waves convected from different events interfere. Using ARTEMIS data, the ULF wave growth rate is estimated and found to fall within dispersion solver predictions during the initial growth time. Observed frequencies and wave numbers are within the predicted range. Other ULF wave properties such as the phase speed, obliquity, and polarization are consistent with expectations from resonant beam instability theory and prior satellite measurements. These results not only advance our understanding of the foreshock, but will also inform future nonlinear studies related to turbulence and dissipation in the heliosphere. Supported by NASA, NASA Eddy Postdoctoral Fellowship.

Why local people did not present a problem in the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan though people accused in the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, M.

2016-12-01

Risk communication is a big issues among seismologists after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake all over the world. A lot of people remember 7 researchers as "L'Aquila 7" were accused in Italy. Seismologists said it is impossible to predict an earthquake by science technology today and join more outreach activities. "In a subsequent inquiry of the handling of the disaster, seven members of the Italian National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks were accused of giving "inexact, incomplete and contradictory" information about the danger of the tremors prior to the main quake. On 22 October 2012, six scientists and one ex-government official were convicted of multiple manslaughter for downplaying the likelihood of a major earthquake six days before it took place. They were each sentenced to six years' imprisonment (Wikipedia)". Finally 6 scientists are not guilty. The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake hit Kyushu, Japan in April. They are very similar seismological situations between the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. The foreshock was Mj6.5 and Mw6.2 in 14 April 2016. The main shock was Mj7.3 and Mw7.0. Japan Metrological Agency (JMA) misleaded foreshock as mainshock before main shock occured. 41 people died by the main shock in Japan. However local people did not accused scientists in Japan. It has been less big earhquakes around 100 years in Kumamoto. Poeple was not so matured that they treated earthquake information in Kyushu, Japan. How are there differences between Japan and Italy? We learn about outreach activities for sciencits from this case.

Source models of M-7 class earthquakes in the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake by near-field tsunami modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubota, T.; Hino, R.; Inazu, D.; Saito, T.; Iinuma, T.; Suzuki, S.; Ito, Y.; Ohta, Y.; Suzuki, K.

2012-12-01

We estimated source models of small amplitude tsunami associated with M-7 class earthquakes in the rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake using near-field records of tsunami recorded by ocean bottom pressure gauges (OBPs). The largest (Mw=7.3) foreshock of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, occurred on 9 Mar., two days before the mainshock. Tsunami associated with the foreshock was clearly recorded by seven OBPs, as well as coseismic vertical deformation of the seafloor. Assuming a planer fault along the plate boundary as a source, the OBP records were inverted for slip distribution. As a result, the most of the coseismic slip was found to be concentrated in the area of about 40 x 40 km in size and located to the north-west of the epicenter, suggesting downdip rupture propagation. Seismic moment of our tsunami waveform inversion is 1.4 x 10^20 Nm, equivalent to Mw 7.3. On 2011 July 10th, an earthquake of Mw 7.0 occurred near the hypocenter of the mainshock. Its relatively deep focus and strike-slip focal mechanism indicate that this earthquake was an intraslab earthquake. The earthquake was associated with small amplitude tsunami. By using the OBP records, we estimated a model of the initial sea-surface height distribution. Our tsunami inversion showed that a pair of uplift/subsiding eyeballs was required to explain the observed tsunami waveform. The spatial pattern of the seafloor deformation is consistent with the oblique strike-slip solution obtained by the seismic data analyses. The location and strike of the hinge line separating the uplift and subsidence zones correspond well to the linear distribution of the aftershock determined by using local OBS data (Obana et al., 2012).

Experimental evidence of phase coherence of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence in the solar wind: GEOTAIL satellite data.

PubMed

Koga, D; Chian, A C-L; Hada, T; Rempel, E L

2008-02-13

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence is commonly observed in the solar wind. Nonlinear interactions among MHD waves are likely to produce finite correlation of the wave phases. For discussions of various transport processes of energetic particles, it is fundamentally important to determine whether the wave phases are randomly distributed (as assumed in the quasi-linear theory) or have a finite coherence. Using a method based on the surrogate data technique, we analysed the GEOTAIL magnetic field data to evaluate the phase coherence in MHD turbulence in the Earth's foreshock region. The results demonstrate the existence of finite phase correlation, indicating that nonlinear wave-wave interactions are in progress.

The 7.2 magnitude earthquake, November 1975, Island of Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

1976-01-01

It was centered about 5 km beneath the Kalapana area on the southeastern coast of Hawaii, the largest island of the Hawaiian chain (Fig. 1) and was preceded by numerous foreshocks. The event was accompanied, or followed shortly, by a tsunami, large-scale ground movemtns, hundreds of aftershocks, an eruption in the summit caldera of Kilauea Volcano. The earthquake and the tsunami it generated produced about 4.1 million dollars in property damage, and the tsumani caused two deaths. Although we have some preliminary findings about the cause and effects of the earthquake, detailed scientific investigations will take many more months to complete. This article is condensed from a recent preliminary report (Tillings an others 1976)

Nucleation process and dynamic inversion of the Mw 6.9 Valparaíso 2017 earthquake in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, S.; Aden-Antoniow, F.; Baez, J. C., Sr.; Otarola, C., Sr.; Potin, B.; DelCampo, F., Sr.; Poli, P.; Flores, C.; Satriano, C.; Felipe, L., Sr.; Madariaga, R. I.

2017-12-01

The Valparaiso 2017 sequence occurred in mega-thrust Central Chile, an active zone where the last mega-earthquake occurred in 1730. An intense seismicity occurred 2 days before of the Mw 6.9 main-shock. A slow trench ward movement observed in the coastal GPS antennas accompanied the foreshock seismicity. Following the Mw 6.9 earthquake the seismicity migrated 30 Km to South-East. This sequence was well recorded by multi-parametric stations composed by GPS, Broad-Band and Strong Motion instruments. We built a seismic catalogue with 2329 events associated to Valparaiso sequence, with a magnitude completeness of Ml 2.8. We located all the seismicity considering a new 3D velocity model obtained for the Valparaiso zone, and compute the moment tensor for events with magnitude larger than Ml 3.5, and finally studied the presence of repeating earthquakes. The main-shock is studied by performing a dynamic inversion using the strong motion records and an elliptical patch approach to characterize the rupture process. During the two days nucleation stage, we observe a compact zone of repeater events. In the meantime a westward GPS movement was recorded in the coastal GPS stations. The aseismic moment estimated from GPS is larger than the foreshocks cumulative moment, suggesting the presence of a slow slip event, which potentially triggered the 6.9 mainshock. The Mw 6.9 earthquake is associated to rupture of an elliptical asperity of semi-axis of 10 km and 5 km, with a sub-shear rupture, stress drop of 11.71 MPa, yield stress of 17.21 MPa, slip weakening of 0.65 m and kappa value of 1.70. This sequence occurs close to, and with some similar characteristics that 1985 Valparaíso Mw 8.0 earthquake. The rupture of this asperity could stress more the highly locked Central Chile zone where a mega-thrust earthquake like 1730 is expected.

Large Scale Earth's Bow Shock with Northern IMF as Simulated by PIC Code in Parallel with MHD Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baraka, Suleiman

2016-06-01

In this paper, we propose a 3D kinetic model (particle-in-cell, PIC) for the description of the large scale Earth's bow shock. The proposed version is stable and does not require huge or extensive computer resources. Because PIC simulations work with scaled plasma and field parameters, we also propose to validate our code by comparing its results with the available MHD simulations under same scaled solar wind (SW) and (IMF) conditions. We report new results from the two models. In both codes the Earth's bow shock position is found to be ≈14.8 R E along the Sun-Earth line, and ≈29 R E on the dusk side. Those findings are consistent with past in situ observations. Both simulations reproduce the theoretical jump conditions at the shock. However, the PIC code density and temperature distributions are inflated and slightly shifted sunward when compared to the MHD results. Kinetic electron motions and reflected ions upstream may cause this sunward shift. Species distributions in the foreshock region are depicted within the transition of the shock (measured ≈2 c/ ω pi for Θ Bn = 90° and M MS = 4.7) and in the downstream. The size of the foot jump in the magnetic field at the shock is measured to be (1.7 c/ ω pi ). In the foreshocked region, the thermal velocity is found equal to 213 km s-1 at 15 R E and is equal to 63 km s -1 at 12 R E (magnetosheath region). Despite the large cell size of the current version of the PIC code, it is powerful to retain macrostructure of planets magnetospheres in very short time, thus it can be used for pedagogical test purposes. It is also likely complementary with MHD to deepen our understanding of the large scale magnetosphere.

Vortex, ULF wave and Aurora Observation after Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Q.

2017-12-01

Here we will summarize our recent study and show some new results on the Magnetosphere and Ionosphere Response to Dynamic Pressure Change/disturbances in the Solar Wind and foreshock regions. We study the step function type solar wind dynamic pressure change (increase/decrease) interaction with the magnetosphere using THEMIS satellites at both dayside and nightside in different geocentric distances. Vortices generated by the dynamic pressure change passing along the magnetopause are found and compared with model predictions. ULF waves and vortices are excited in the dayside and nightside plasma sheet when dynamic pressure change hit the magnetotail. The related ionospheric responses, such as aurora and TCVs, are also investigated. We compare Global MHD simulations with the observations. We will also show some new results that dayside magnetospheric FLRs might be caused by foreshock structures.Shi, Q. Q. et al. (2013), THEMIS observations of ULF wave excitation in the nightside plasma sheet during sudden impulse events, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 118, doi:10.1029/2012JA017984. Shi, Q. Q. et al. (2014), Solar wind pressure pulse-driven magnetospheric vortices and their global consequences, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 119, doi:10.1002/2013JA019551. Tian, A.M. et al.(2016), Dayside magnetospheric and ionospheric responses to solar wind pressure increase: Multispacecraft and ground observations, J. Geophys. Res., 121, doi:10.1002/2016JA022459. Shen, X.C. et al.(2015), Magnetospheric ULF waves with increasing amplitude related to solar wind dynamic pressure changes: THEMIS observations, J. Geophys. Res., 120, doi:10.1002/2014JA020913Zhao, H. Y. et al. (2016), Magnetospheric vortices and their global effect after a solar wind dynamic pressure decrease, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 121, doi:10.1002/2015JA021646. Shen, X. C., et al. (2017), Dayside magnetospheric ULF wave frequency modulated by a solar wind dynamic pressure negative impulse, J. Geophys. Res., 122, doi:10.1002/2016JA023351.

Search for repeating events at the plate interface in the seismic sequence of the 2014 Mw8.1 Iquique earthquake, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kummerow, Joern; Asch, Guenter; Sens-Schönfelder, Christoph; Schurr, Bernd; Tilmann, Frederik; Shapiro, Serge A.

2017-04-01

The 2014 Mw8.1 Iquique earthquake occurred along a segment of the northern Chile- southern Peru seismic gap which had not ruptured for more than 100 years. A specific feature of this event is the observation of prominent foreshock clusters with successively increasing seismic moment releases starting several months before the main shock (e.g., Schurr et al., 2014). The entire seismic sequence, including also the aftershock seismicity, was monitored exceptionally well by the Integrated Plate Boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC). Here, we present results from a systematic, long-term search for repeating seismic events along the plate interface in the source region of the 1 April 2014 (Mw8.1) Iquique main shock. Repeating earthquakes are widely assumed to indicate recurrent ruptures on the same fault patch and to accommodate aseismic slip in the creeping portions around the seismic patch. According to this concept, the analysis of repeating events and of their temporal behaviour provides a tool to estimate the amount of creep. We use the IPOC and two additional local seismic networks and select recorded waveforms of several hundreds of located earthquakes within the foreshock and aftershock series as template events. Waveforms are windowed around the P and S phases and bandpass-filtered for different frequency bands. Window starts are defined by manually revised P onset times. We then run a newly implemented correlation detector on the resampled, continuous seismic data to find highly similar waveforms for each template event. Repeating earthquakes are finally identified by a combination of estimated source dimensions, high waveform similarity and precise relative relocations of the events within each multiplet group. The analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of the detected repeating earthquake sequences allows to test the proposed idea of progressive unlocking of the plate boundary before the Iquique main shock.

Tuning critical failure with viscoelasticity: How aftershocks inhibit criticality in an analytical mean field model of fracture.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baro Urbea, J.; Davidsen, J.

2017-12-01

The hypothesis of critical failure relates the presence of an ultimate stability point in the structural constitutive equation of materials to a divergence of characteristic scales in the microscopic dynamics responsible of deformation. Avalanche models involving critical failure have determined universality classes in different systems: from slip events in crystalline and amorphous materials to the jamming of granular media or the fracture of brittle materials. However, not all empirical failure processes exhibit the trademarks of critical failure. As an example, the statistical properties of ultrasonic acoustic events recorded during the failure of porous brittle materials are stationary, except for variations in the activity rate that can be interpreted in terms of aftershock and foreshock activity (J. Baró et al., PRL 2013).The rheological properties of materials introduce dissipation, usually reproduced in atomistic models as a hardening of the coarse-grained elements of the system. If the hardening is associated to a relaxation process the same mechanism is able to generate temporal correlations. We report the analytic solution of a mean field fracture model exemplifying how criticality and temporal correlations are tuned by transient hardening. We provide a physical meaning to the conceptual model by deriving the constitutive equation from the explicit representation of the transient hardening in terms of a generalized viscoelasticity model. The rate of 'aftershocks' is controlled by the temporal evolution of the viscoelastic creep. At the quasistatic limit, the moment release is invariant to rheology. Therefore, the lack of criticality is explained by the increase of the activity rate close to failure, i.e. 'foreshocks'. Finally, the avalanche propagation can be reinterpreted as a pure mathematical problem in terms of a stochastic counting process. The statistical properties depend only on the distance to a critical point, which is universal for any parametrization of the transient hardening and a whole category of fracture models.

Dynamic Triggering of Seismic Events and Their Relation to Slow Slip in Interior Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sims, N. E.; Holtkamp, S. G.

2017-12-01

We conduct a search for dynamically triggered events in the Minto Flats Fault Zone (MFFZ), a left-lateral strike-slip zone expressed as multiple, partially overlapping faults, in central Alaska. We focus on the MFFZ because we have observed slow slip processes (earthquake swarms and Very Low Frequency Earthquakes) and interaction between earthquake swarms and larger main-shock (MS) events in this area before. We utilize the Alaska Earthquake Center catalog to identify potential earthquake swarms and dynamically triggered foreshock and mainshock events along the fault zone. We find 30 swarms occurring in the last two decades, five of which we classify as foreshock (FS) swarms due to their close proximity in both time and space to MS events. Many of the earthquake swarms cluster around 15-20 km depth, which is near the seismic-aseismic transition along this fault zone. Additionally, we observe instances of large teleseismic events such as the M8.6 2012 Sumatra earthquake and M7.4 2012 Guatemala earthquake triggering seismic events within the MFFZ, with the Sumatra earthquake triggering a mainshock event that was preceded by an ongoing earthquake swarm and the Guatemala event triggering earthquake swarms that subsequently transition into a larger mainshock event. In both cases an earthquake swarm transitioned into a mainshock-aftershock event and activity continued for several days after the teleseismic waves had passed, lending some evidence to delayed dynamic triggering of seismic events. We hypothesize that large dynamic transient strain associated with the passage of teleseismic surface waves is triggering slow slip processes near the base of the seismogenic zone. These triggered aseismic transient events result in earthquake swarms, which sometimes lead to the nucleation of larger earthquakes. We utilize network matched filtering to build more robust catalogs of swarm earthquake families in this region to search for additional swarm-like or triggered activity in response to teleseismic surface waves, and to test dynamic triggering hypotheses.

THOR Ion Mass Spectrometer (IMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retinò, Alessandro

2017-04-01

Turbulence Heating ObserveR (THOR) is the first mission ever flown in space dedicated to plasma turbulence. The Ion Mass Spectrometer (IMS) onboard THOR will provide the first high-time resolution measurements of mass-resolved ions in near-Earth space, focusing on hot ions in the foreshock, shock and magnetosheath turbulent regions. These measurements are required to study how kinetic-scale turbulent fluctuations heat and accelerate different ion species. IMS will measure the full three-dimensional distribution functions of main ion species (H+, He++, O+) in the energy range 10 eV/q to 30 keV/q with energy resolution DE/E down to 10% and angular resolution down to 11.25˚ . The time resolution will be 150 ms for O+, 300 ms for He++ and ˜ 1s for O+, which correspond to ion scales in the the foreshock, shock and magnetosheath regions. Such high time resolution is achieved by mounting four identical IMS units phased by 90˚ in the spacecraft spin plane. Each IMS unit combines a top-hat electrostatic analyzer with deflectors at the entrance together with a time-of-flight section to perform mass selection. Adequate mass-per-charge resolution (M/q)/(ΔM/q) (≥ 8 for He++ and ≥ 3 for O+) is obtained through a 6 cm long Time-of-Flight (TOF) section. IMS electronics includes a fast sweeping high voltage board that is required to make measurements at high cadence. Ion detection includes Micro Channel Plates (MCPs) combined with Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) for charge amplification and discrimination and a discrete Time-to-Amplitude Converter (TAC) to determine the ion time of flight. A processor board will be used to for ion events formatting and will interface with the Particle Processing Unit (PPU), which will perform data processing for THOR particle detectors. The IMS instrument is being designed and will be built and calibrated by an international consortium of scientific institutes from France, USA, Germany and Japan and Switzerland.

First Vlasiator results on foreshock ULF wave activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmroth, M.; Eastwood, J. P.; Pokhotelov, D.; Hietala, H.; Kempf, Y.; Hoilijoki, S.; von Alfthan, S.; Vainio, R. O.

2013-12-01

For decades, a certain type of ultra low frequency waves with a period of about 30 seconds have been observed in the Earth's quasi-parallel foreshock. These waves, with a wavelength of about an Earth radius, are compressive and propagate obliquely with respect to the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The latter property has caused trouble to scientists as the growth rate for the instability causing the waves is maximized along the magnetic field. So far, these waves have been characterized by single or multi-spacecraft methods and 2-dimensional hybrid-PIC simulations, which have not fully reproduced the wave properties. Vlasiator is a newly developed, global hybrid-Vlasov simulation, which solves ions in the six-dimensional phase space using the Vlasov equation and electrons using magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). The outcome of the simulation is a global reproduction of ion-scale physics in a holistic manner where the generation of physical features can be followed in time and their consequences can be quantitatively characterized. Vlasiator produces the ion distribution functions and the related kinetic physics in unprecedented detail, in the global magnetospheric scale presently with a resolution of 0.13 RE in the ordinary space and 20 km/s in the velocity space. We run two simulations, where we use both a typical Parker-spiral and a radial IMF as an input to the code. The runs are carried out in the ecliptic 2-dimensional plane in the ordinary space, and with three dimensions in the velocity space. We observe the generation of the 30-second ULF waves, and characterize their evolution and physical properties in time, comparing to observations by Cluster spacecraft. We find that Vlasiator reproduces these waves in all reported observational aspects, i.e., they are of the observed size in wavelength and period, they are compressive and propagate obliquely to the IMF. In particular, we investigate the oblique propagation and discuss the issues related to the long-standing question of oblique propagation.

Tectonic implications and seismicity triggering during the 2008 Baluchistan, Pakistan earthquake sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, R. B. S.; Gahalaut, V. K.; Chopra, Sumer; Shan, Bin

2012-02-01

A damaging and widely felt moderate earthquake (Mw 6.4) hit the rural, mountainous region of southwestern Pakistan on October 28, 2008. The main shock was followed by another earthquake of identical magnitude (Mw 6.4) on the next day. The spatial distribution of aftershocks and focal mechanism revealed a NW-SE striking rupture with right-lateral strike-slip motion which is sympathetic to the NNW-SSE striking active mapped Urghargai Fault. The occurrence of strike-slip earthquakes suggests that along with the thrust faults, strike slip faults too are present beneath the fold-and-thrust belt of Sulaiman-Kirthar ranges and accommodates some of the relative motion of the Indian and Eurasian plates. To assess the characteristics of this sequence, the statistical parameters like aftershocks temporal decay, b-value of G-R relationship, partitioning of radiated seismic energy due to aftershocks, and spatial fractal dimension (D-value) have been examined. The b-value is estimated as 1.03 ± 0.42 and suggests the tectonic genesis of the sequence and crustal heterogeneity within rock mass. The low p-value of 0.89 ± 0.07 implies slow decay of aftershocks activity which is probably an evidence for low surface heat flow. A value of spatial fractal dimension of 2.08 ± 0.02 indicates random spatial distribution and that the source is a two-dimensional plane filled-up by fractures. The static coseismic Coulomb stress changes due to the foreshock (Mw 5.3) were found to increase stress by more than 0.04 bars at the hypocenter of the main shock, thus promoting the failure. The cumulative coseismic Coulomb stress changes due to the foreshock and mainshocks suggest that most of the aftershocks occurred in the region of increased Coulomb stress, and to the SE to the mainshock rupture.

Progress report on lithium-related geologic investigations in Bolivia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, J.R.; Howard, K.A.; Rettig, S.L.; Smith, R.L.; Ericksen, G.E.; Risacher, Francois; Alarcon, Hugo; Morales, Ricardo

1982-01-01

The September 1, 1981, Samoa Islands Region earthquake occurred at the extreme northern end of the Tonga arc in a region where the Pacific plate may be disjointed along a hinge fault. In the last 50 years, magnitude 7 or greater earthquakes have occurred in this region on the average of once every six years, but four 7+ events have now occurred within the last six years. The mainshock was preceded about two hours earlier by a foreshock that was used as a calibration event for the Joint Epicenter Determination relocation of the mainshock and nearby seismicity occurring within a period seven months prior to and one week after the mainshock. The foreshock, better-located events of the prior seismicity, and most aftershocks are concentrated in a group near the mainshock epicenter, but several more distant aftershocks suggest that the aftershock zone may have been as large as 125 km in length and trended about S35?E. Identification of depth phases from a full suite of broadband records gives source depths of 25-3km for the mainshock and 29.5?3 km for the foreshock using a JB earth model. Source parameters were determined for the mainshock utilizing WWSSN analog and GDSN digital data. The preferred fault plane solution based on P-wave first motion data is a south by southwesterly steeply dipping normal fault, remarkably similar to the mechanism reported by Johnson and Molnar (1972) for the nearby earthquake of April 20, 196B. A waveform inversion technique described by Sipkin (1982), when applied to long-period P waveforms, gives an 'average' point source solution for a purely deviatoric moment rate tensor at a preferred source depth of 22 km. Very similar results were obtained from long-period GDSN body-wave and mantle-wave data using a centroid-moment tensor inversion technique described in Dziewonski, and others (1981). Both techniques provide solutions very close to a double couple source with a south by southwesterly shallow-dipping normal fault mechanism. To obtain the scalar mantle wave moment, GDSN vertical and transverse records 20,000 see in length were processed as described by Buland and Taggart (1981). Averaging all the data from Rayleigh and Love waves yields an estimate of 3.8 x 10^27 dyne-cm (as compared to about 1.9 x 10^27 from body-wave moment tensor inversions) or a moment magnitude (Mr) of 7.6. For the portion of the waveform analysed (50-5B sec), the body-wave inversion performed by Sipkin gives a source time function of duration approximately 28 sec with two peaks in activity. Simultaneous analysis of short-period records, and broadband ground displacements and velocities, a method described by Harvey and Choy (1982) and Choy and Boatwright (1981) revealed a complex rupture consisting of two subevents, of about the same moment, separated in time by about 25 sec, and with durations of about 25 sec each. The two peaks in activity resolved by the body-wave moment tensor inversion correspond to the first of these subevents.

A Trial for Detecting the Temporal Variation in Seismic Velocity Accompanied by a Slow Slip Event using Seismic Interferometry of Ambient Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uemura, Miyuu; Ito, Yoshihiro; Ohta, Kazuaki; Hino, Ryota; Shinohara, Masanao

2017-04-01

Seismic interferometry is one of the most effective techniques to detect temporal variations in seismic velocity before or after a large earthquake. Some previous studies have been reported on seismic velocity reduction due to the occurrence of large earthquakes (e.g., Wegler et al., 2009; Yamada et al., 2010) as well as preceding them (e.g., Lockner et al., 1977; Yoshimitsu et al., 2009). However, there have only been a few studies thus far which attempt to detect seismic velocity changes associated with slow slip events (SSEs). In this study, we focus on applying seismic interferometry to ambient noise data from ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) deployed near a subduction zone. Between the end of January 2011 and the largest foreshock occurring on March 9th that precedes the March 11, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, SSEs and low-frequency tremors were detected offshore Miyagi Prefecture (Ito et al., 2013, 2015; Katakami et al., 2016). We applied our seismic interferometry analysis using ambient noise to recordings from 17 OBS stations that were installed in the vicinity of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake source region, and only considered the recordings from before that major earthquake. All the OBSs are short-period seismometers with three components which have an eigenfrequency of 4.5 Hz. These OBSs were deployed offshore Miyagi Prefecture between November 2010 and April 2011. Before proceeding with the seismic interferometry analysis, we needed to estimate the two horizontal components of the original deployment orientation for 13 OBSs in (we could not estimate them for 4 OBSs). To obtain the OBS orientation, we used particle orbits of some direct P waves from selected tectonic earthquakes, in order to extract one vertical and two horizontal components. Then, the seismic interferometry analysis consisted of the following steps. First, we applied a band-pass filter of 0.25-2.0 Hz and one-bit technique to the ambient noise signal. Second, we calculated auto-correlation functions (ACFs) for the radial and transverse components using a 5-s time window with lag time from -30 s to 30 s, sampled at intervals of 0.1 s. Using either seven or sixteen days of continuous waveform records or the entire time period, we can construct either a 7-day ACF, a 16-day ACF, or a reference ACF. Finally, we calculated the Correlation Coefficients (CCs) between the 7-day ACF or the 16-day ACF and the reference ACF. There are three important points in our results. First, during the occurrence of the SSE, the values of the CCs decrease. Second, the changes in the values of the CCs display regional differences across the OBS network. Third, the locations of the stations for which the drop of the CC from a value of 1.0 is large corresponds to the seafloor region above the rupture area of the largest foreshock, whereas the locations of the stations for which the drop from the CC of the previous period is large corresponds to the seafloor above the slip area of the SSEs detected before that foreshock.

Deceleration of the solar wind in the earth's foreshock region - Isee 2 and Imp 8 observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonifazi, C.; Moreno, G.; Lazarus, A. J.; Sullivan, J. D.

1980-01-01

The deceleration of the solar wind in the region of the interplanetary space filled by ions backstreaming from the earth's bow shock and associated waves is studied using a two-spacecraft technique. This deceleration depends on the solar wind bulk velocity; at low velocities (below 300 km/s) the velocity decrease is about 5 km/s, while at higher velocities (above 400 km/s) the decrease may be as large as 30 km/s. The energy balance shows that the kinetic energy loss far exceeds the thermal energy which is possibly gained by the solar wind; therefore at least part of this energy must go into waves and/or into the backstreaming ions.

An overview of the geotechnical damage brought by the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, Japan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hemanta Hazarika,; Takaji Kokusho,; Kayen, Robert E.; Dashti, Shideh; Yutaka Tanoue,; Shuuichi Kuroda and Kentaro Kuribayashi,; Daisuke Matsumoto,; Furuichi, Hideo

2016-01-01

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake with a moment magnitude of 7.0 (Japanese intensity = 7) that struck on April 16 brought devastation in many areas of Kumamoto Prefecture and partly in Oita Prefecture in Kyushu Region, Japan. The earthquake succeeds a foreshock of magnitude 6.5 (Japanese intensity = 7) on April 14. The authors conducted two surveys on the devastated areas: one during April 16-17, and the other during May 11-14. This report summarizes the damage brought to geotechnical structures by the two consecutive earthquakes within a span of twenty-eight hours. This report highlights some of the observed damage and identifies reasons for such damage. The geotechnical challenges towards mitigation of losses from such earthquakes are also suggested.

Growth of electron plasma waves above and below f(p) in the electron foreshock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cairns, Iver H.; Fung, Shing F.

1988-01-01

This paper investigates the conditions required for electron beams to drive wave growth significantly above and below the electron plasma frequency, f(p), by numerically solving the linear dispersion equation. It is shown that kinetic growth well below f(p) may occur over a broad range of frequencies due to the beam instability, when the electron beam is slow, dilute, and relatively cold. Alternatively, a cold or sharp feature at low parallel velocities in the distribution function may drive kinetic growth significantly below f(p). Kinetic broadband growth significantly above f(p) is explained in terms of faster warmer beams. A unified qualitative theory for the narrow-band and broad-band waves is proposed.

Universality in the dynamical properties of seismic vibrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Soumya; Barat, P.; Mukherjee, Indranil

2018-02-01

We have studied the statistical properties of the observed magnitudes of seismic vibration data in discrete time in an attempt to understand the underlying complex dynamical processes. The observed magnitude data are taken from six different geographical locations. All possible magnitudes are considered in the analysis including catastrophic vibrations, foreshocks, aftershocks and commonplace daily vibrations. The probability distribution functions of these data sets obey scaling law and display a certain universality characteristic. To investigate the universality features in the observed data generated by a complex process, we applied Random Matrix Theory (RMT) in the framework of Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE). For all these six places the observed data show a close fit with the predictions of RMT. This reinforces the idea of universality in the dynamical processes generating seismic vibrations.

Near-field investigations of the Landers earthquake sequence, April to July 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sieh, K.; Jones, L.; Hauksson, E.; Hudnut, K.; Eberhart-Phillips, D.; Heaton, T.; Hough, S.; Hutton, K.; Kanamori, H.; Lilje, A.; Lindvall, Scott; McGill, S.F.; Mori, J.; Rubin, C.; Spotila, J.A.; Stock, J.; Thio, H.K.; Treiman, J.; Wernicke, B.; Zachariasen, J.

1993-01-01

The Landers earthquake, which had a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.3, was the largest earthquake to strike the contiguous United States in 40 years. This earthquake resulted from the rupture of five major and many minor right-lateral faults near the southern end of the eastern California shear zone, just north of the San Andreas fault. Its Mw 6.1 preshock and Mw 6.2 aftershock had their own aftershocks and foreshocks. Surficial geological observations are consistent with local and far-field seismologic observations of the earthquake. Large surficial offsets (as great as 6 meters) and a relatively short rupture length (85 kilometers) are consistent with seismological calculations of a high stress drop (200 bars), which is in turn consistent with an apparently long recurrence interval for these faults.

Computerized Workstation for Tsunami Hazard Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavrentiev-Jr, Mikhail; Marchuk, Andrey; Romanenko, Alexey; Simonov, Konstantin; Titov, Vasiliy

2010-05-01

We present general structure and functionality of the proposed Computerized Workstation for Tsunami Hazard Monitoring (CWTHM). The tool allows interactive monitoring of hazard, tsunami risk assessment, and mitigation - at all stages, from the period of strong tsunamigenic earthquake preparation to inundation of the defended coastal areas. CWTHM is a software-hardware complex with a set of software applications, optimized to achieve best performance on hardware platforms in use. The complex is calibrated for selected tsunami source zone(s) and coastal zone(s) to be defended. The number of zones (both source and coastal) is determined, or restricted, by available hardware resources. The presented complex performs monitoring of selected tsunami source zone via the Internet. The authors developed original algorithms, which enable detection of the preparation zone of the strong underwater earthquake automatically. For the so-determined zone the event time, magnitude and spatial location of tsunami source are evaluated by means of energy of the seismic precursors (foreshocks) analysis. All the above parameters are updated after each foreshock. Once preparing event is detected, several scenarios are forecasted for wave amplitude parameters as well as the inundation zone. Estimations include the lowest and the highest wave amplitudes and the least and the most inundation zone. In addition to that, the most probable case is calculated. In case of multiple defended coastal zones, forecasts and estimates can be done in parallel. Each time the simulated model wave reaches deep ocean buoys or tidal gauge, expected values of wave parameters and inundation zones are updated with historical events information and pre-calculated scenarios. The Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) software package is used for mathematical simulation. The authors suggest code acceleration for deep water wave propagation. As a result, performance is 15 times faster compared to MOST, original version. Performance gain is achieved by compiler options, use of optimized libraries, and advantages of OpenMP parallel technology. Moreover, it is possible to achieve 100 times code acceleration by using modern Graphics Processing Units (GPU). Parallel evaluation of inundation zones for multiple coastal zones is also available. All computer codes can be easily assembled under MS Windows and Unix OS family. Although software is virtually platform independent, the most performance gain is achieved while using the recommended hardware components. When the seismic event occurs, all valuable parameters are updated with seismic data and wave propagation monitoring is enabled. As soon as the wave passes each deep ocean tsunameter, parameters of the initial displacement at source are updated from direct calculations based on original algorithms. For better source reconstruction, a combination of two methods is used: optimal unit source linear combination from preliminary calculated database and direct numerical inversion along the wave ray between real source and particular measurement buoys. Specific dissipation parameter along with the wave ray is also taken into account. During the entire wave propagation process the expected wave parameters and inundation zone(s) characteristics are updated with all available information. If recommended hardware components are used, monitoring results are available in real time. The suggested version of CWTHM has been tested by analyzing seismic precursors (foreshocks) and the measured tsunami waves at North Pacific for the Central Kuril's tsunamigenic earthquake of November 15, 2006.

In-situ Plasma Analysis of Ion Kinetics in the Solar Wind and Hermean Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tracy, Patrick J.

The heating of the solar wind and its interaction with the unique planetary magnetosphere of Mercury is the primary focus of this work. The first aspect of this study focused on the heavy ion population of the solar wind (A > 4 amu), and how well the signature of the heating process responsible for creating the solar wind is preserved in this heavy ion population. We found that this signature in the heavy ion population is primarily erased (thermalized) via Coulomb collisional interactions with solar wind protons. The heavy ions observed in collisionally young solar wind reveal a clear, stable dependence on mass, along with non-thermal heating that is not in agreement with current predictions based on turbulent transport and kinetic dissipation. Due to its weak magnetic dipole, the solar wind can impinge on the surface of Mercury, one of the processes contributing to the desorption of neutrals and, through ionization, ions that make up the planet's exosphere. Differentiating between surface mechanisms and analyzing magnetospheric plasma dynamics requires the quantification of a variety of ion species. A detailed forward model and a robust statistical method were created to identify new ion signatures in the measurement space of the FIPS instrument, formerly orbiting Mercury onboard the MESSENGER spacecraft. The recovery of new heavy ions species, including Al, Ne, Si, and Mg, along with tentative recoveries of S, Ar, K, and C, enable in depth studies of the plasma dynamics in the Hermean magnetosphere. The interaction of the solar wind with the bow shock of the Hermean magnetosphere leads to the creation of a foreshock region. New tools and methods were created to enable the analysis of the diffuse and Field Aligned Beam (FAB) populations in unique parameter regime of the Hermean foreshock. One result suggests that the energization process for the observed FABs can be explained by Shock Drift Acceleration, and not limited by the small spatial size of Mercury's bow shock. Analysis of diffuse populations shows that a connection time limited diffusive shock acceleration is likely responsible for the behavior of the observed energy distributions.

Mapping b-value for 2009 Harrat Lunayyir earthquake swarm, western Saudi Arabia and Coulomb stress for its mainshock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelfattah, Ali K.; Mogren, Saad; Mukhopadhyay, Manoj

2017-01-01

The Harrat Lunayyir (HL) earthquake swarm of 2009 originated in the HL volcanic field and attracted global attention mainly due to three factors: (i) its relatively short life span that ushered a large frequency of the swarm population (30,000 events in < 2 years), (ii) the swarm epicenter zone was contained within a small crustal volume under the HL and (iii) the migratory nature of the swarm following the tectonic trend of a normal fault zone beneath HL. The HL belongs to the Large Igneous Province of Saudi Arabia (LIP-SA) where it correlates to the Great Dikes locally. Our aim in this study is to describe the spatial distribution of the hypocenters, b-value character, and Coulomb stress failure (CSF) in an attempt to analyze the underlying geodynamic process that caused the swarm. We utilize the relocated hypocenters monitored by local networks to examine the b-value characteristics for the swarm. This is best represented in a cross section showing two domains of higher b-value anomalies: two patches occurring at shallow depth and at the deeper crust to the SE from the mainshock originated at the shallower depth northwestward. Consistently positive ΔCFF pattern with a large percentage of aftershocks imply how the mainshock rupture controlled the aftershocks activity. This implies that the failure along the NNW fault trend is due to the prevailing ambient stress field imparted to the swarm. We model this by CSF associated with the mainshock for three time dependent situations: (a) foreshock and aftershock epicenters, (b) foreshock hypocenters, and (c) aftershock hypocenters. In actuality, multiple factors might have controlled the aftershock activity as we speculate that positive Coulomb stress was associated in an area where the higher b-value prevails. The CSF produced by the mainshock illustrates how the stress dissipated along the NNW normal fault zone that interrupts the Great Dykes along the Red Sea coast. These results further suggest that the crustal heterogeneity under HL act as an asperity in the epicentral area, whose origin may relate to magma intrusion into upper crust. However, seismic survey is required for detailing this geologic inference.

Statistical Seismology and Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiampo, K. F.; González, P. J.; Kazemian, J.

2014-12-01

While seismicity triggered or induced by natural resources production such as mining or water impoundment in large dams has long been recognized, the recent increase in the unconventional production of oil and gas has been linked to rapid rise in seismicity in many places, including central North America (Ellsworth et al., 2012; Ellsworth, 2013). Worldwide, induced events of M~5 have occurred and, although rare, have resulted in both damage and public concern (Horton, 2012; Keranen et al., 2013). In addition, over the past twenty years, the increase in both number and coverage of seismic stations has resulted in an unprecedented ability to precisely record the magnitude and location of large numbers of small magnitude events. The increase in the number and type of seismic sequences available for detailed study has revealed differences in their statistics that previously difficult to quantify. For example, seismic swarms that produce significant numbers of foreshocks as well as aftershocks have been observed in different tectonic settings, including California, Iceland, and the East Pacific Rise (McGuire et al., 2005; Shearer, 2012; Kazemian et al., 2014). Similarly, smaller events have been observed prior to larger induced events in several occurrences from energy production. The field of statistical seismology has long focused on the question of triggering and the mechanisms responsible (Stein et al., 1992; Hill et al., 1993; Steacy et al., 2005; Parsons, 2005; Main et al., 2006). For example, in most cases the associated stress perturbations are much smaller than the earthquake stress drop, suggesting an inherent sensitivity to relatively small stress changes (Nalbant et al., 2005). Induced seismicity provides the opportunity to investigate triggering and, in particular, the differences between long- and short-range triggering. Here we investigate the statistics of induced seismicity sequences from around the world, including central North America and Spain, and natural earthquake swarms and non-swarm tectonic events from California, Nevada and Iceland. We compare the foreshock and aftershock Omori decay parameters and the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling relationships for these different sequences in order to better understand the relationship between triggering and cascade sequences.

Constraints on upper plate deformation in the Nicaraguan subduction zone from earthquake relocation and directivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, S. W.; Warren, L. M.; Fischer, K. M.; Abers, G. A.; Strauch, W.; Protti, J. M.; Gonzalez, V.

2010-03-01

In the Nicaraguan segment of the Central American subduction zone, bookshelf faulting has been proposed as the dominant style of Caribbean plate deformation in response to oblique subduction of the Cocos plate. A key element of this model is left-lateral motion on arc-normal strike-slip faults. On 3 August 2005, a Mw 6.3 earthquake and its extensive foreshock and aftershock sequence occurred near Ometepe Island in Lake Nicaragua. To determine the fault plane that ruptured in the main shock, we relocated main shock, foreshock, and aftershock hypocenters and analyzed main shock source directivity using waveforms from the TUCAN Broadband Seismic Experiment. The relocation analysis was carried out by applying the hypoDD double-difference method to P and S onset times and differential traveltimes for event pairs determined by waveform cross correlation. The relocated hypocenters define a roughly vertical plane of seismicity with an N60°E strike. This plane aligns with one of the two nodal planes of the main shock source mechanism. The directivity analysis was based on waveforms from 16 TUCAN stations and indicates that rupture on the N60°E striking main shock nodal plane provides the best fit to the data. The relocation and directivity analyses identify the N60°E vertical nodal plane as the main shock fault plane, consistent with the style of faulting required by the bookshelf model. Relocated hypocenters also define a second fault plane that lies to the south of the main shock fault plane with a strike of N350°E-N355°E. This fault plane became seismically active 5 h after the main shock, suggesting the influence of stresses transferred from the main shock fault plane. The August 2005 earthquake sequence was preceded by a small eruption of a nearby volcano, Concepción, on 28 July 2005. However, the local seismicity does not provide evidence for earthquake triggering of the eruption or eruption triggering of the main shock through crustal stress transfer.

Search for Anisotropy Changes Associated with Two Large Earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savage, M. K.; Graham, K.; Aoki, Y.; Arnold, R.

2017-12-01

Seismic anisotropy is often considered to be an indicator of stress in the crust, because the closure of cracks due to differential stress leads to waves polarized parallel to the cracks travelling faster than the orthogonal direction. Changes in shear wave splitting have been suggested to result from stress changes at volcanoes and earthquakes. However, the effects of mineral or structural alignment, and the difficulty of distinguishing between changes in anisotropy along an earthquake-station path from distinguishing changes in the path itself, have made such findings controversial. Two large earthquakes in 2016 provide unique datasets to test the use of shear wave splitting for measuring variations in stress because clusters of closely-spaced earthquakes occurred both before and after a mainshock. We use the automatic, objective splitting analysis code MFAST to speed process and minimize unwitting observer bias when determining time variations. The sequence of earthquakes related to the M=7.2 Japanese Kumamoto earthquake of 14 April 2016 includes both foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The sequence was recorded by the NIED permanent network, which already contributed background seismic anisotropy measurements in a previous study of anisotropy and stress in Kyushu. Preliminary measurements of shear wave splitting from earthquakes that occurred in 2016 show results at some stations that clearly differ from those of the earlier study. They also change between earthquakes recorded before and after the mainshock. Further work is under way to determine whether the changes are more likely due to changes in stress during the observation time, or due to spatial changes in anisotropy combined with changes in earthquake locations. Likewise, background seismicity and also foreshocks and aftershocks in the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence including two M=6.5 earthquakes in 2013 in New Zealand were in the same general region as aftershocks of the M=7.8 Kaikoura earthquake that occurred on 14 November 2016. Here again, preliminary analysis suggests the possibility that we are observing changes in stress, but detailed analysis is needed to confirm that.

Similarities and Differences between the Termination Foreshock/ Bow Shock and Planetary Bow Shocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krimigis, S. M.; Decker, R. B.; Roelof, E. C.; Hill, M. E.

2006-05-01

It is now evident that Voyager 1 (V1) entered the termination foreshock (TFS) at ~~85 AU in mid-2002, exited this region in early 2003 and re-entered in the late 2003-early 2004 time frame, before finally crossing the termination shock (TS) at ~~94 AU on December 16, 2004. The TFS region is characterized by large intensities of tangentially outward-moving beams of energetic ions E > 40 keV, and generally isotropic electron intensity increases E > 350 keV (Krimigis et al, 2003; Decker et al, 2005). Elevated magnetic field intensities were observed throughout these periods (Burlaga et al, 2003, 2005) and comparison with particle pressures showed this region to be a high-beta plasma (Krimigis et al, 2004, 2005). Proximity of the TS was also evident from occasional electron plasma oscillations seen as early as 91 AU (Gurnett and Kurth, 2005). In this paper we examine the extent to which the TFS and TS exhibit properties seen in planetary bow shocks using data from Voyager?s flyby of the outer planets and Cassini data in the vicinity of Saturn. Magnetic field distributions in these high-beta regions appear to be Gaussian. A possible source for the TSF particles is the supertherma1 population residing in the heliosheath, similar to upstream ions observed leaking from planetary magnetospheres. Krimigis, S.M. et al, Nature, 426, pg 45-48, 2003. Decker, R. B. et al, Science, 309, 2020- 2024, 2005. Burlaga et al, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, NO. 20, 2072, doi:10.1029/2003GL018291, 2003. Burlaga, L. F, et al, Science, 309, 2027-2029, 2005 Krimigis S. M., et al, V. Florinski, N. V. Pogorelov, and G. P. Zank (eds) CP719, American Institute of Physics, 0-7354-0199-3/04, 133-138, 2004. Krimigis, S. M., et al, Proceedings of the Solar Wind 11 / SOHO 16 Conference,12-17 June 2005, Whistler, Canada, , B. Fleck & T.H. Zurbuchen (eds), (ESA SP-592, September 2005) Gurnett, D. A., and W. S. Kurth, Science, 309, 2025- 2027, 2005

Stress transfer by the 1988-1989 M=5.3 and 5.4 Lake Elsman foreshocks to the Loma Prieta fault: Unclamping at the site of peak mainshock slip

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perfettini, H.; Stein, R.S.; Simpson, R.; Cocco, M.

1999-01-01

We study the stress transferred by the June 27, 1988, M=5.3 and August 8, 1989, M=5.4 Lake Elsman earthquakes, the largest events to strike within 15 km of the future Loma Prieta rupture zone during 74 years before the 1989 M=6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. We find that the first Lake Elsman event brought the rupture plane of the second event 0.3-1.6 bars (0.03-0.16 MPa) closer to Coulomb failure but that the Lake Elsman events did not bring the future Loma Prieta hypocentral zone closer to failure. Instead, the Lake Elsman earthquakes are calculated to have reduced the normal stress on (or "undamped") the Loma Prieta rupture surface by 0.5-1.0 bar (0.05-0.10 MPa) at the site where the greatest slip subsequently occurred in the Loma Prieta earthquake. This association between the sites of peak unclamping and slip suggests that the Lake Elsman events did indeed influence the Loma Prieta rupture process. Unclamping the fault would have locally lowered the resistance to sliding. Such an effect could have been enhanced if the lowered normal stress permitted fluid infusion into the undamped part of the fault. Although less well recorded, the ML=5.0 1964 and ML=5.3 1967 Corralitos events struck within 10 km of the southwest end of the future Loma Prieta rupture. No similar relationship between the normal stress change and subsequent Loma Prieta slip is observed, although the high-slip patch southwest of the Loma Prieta epicenter corresponds roughly to the site of calculated Coulomb stress increase for a low coefficient of friction. The Lake Elsman-Loma Prieta result is similar to that for the 1987 M=6.2 Elmore Ranch and M=6.7 Superstition Hills earthquakes, suggesting that foreshocks might influence the distribution of mainshock slip rather than the site of mainshock nucleation. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Spatio-temporal variation of seismicity before the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ishida, M.; Kanamori, H.

1977-08-01

The spatio-temporal variation of seismicity prior to the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake is studied for the area within 35 km of the epicenter. During the period from 1932 to 1961, the seismicity in this area was relatively low and random. A remarkable NE-SW trending alignment of activity occurred during the period from 1961 to 1964, the period corresponding to the inferred onset of the Palmdale uplift. During the period from 1965 to 1968, the seismicity around the epicentral area became extremely low; no event was located within 13 km from the epicenter. During the period from 1969 to themore » occurrence of the San Fernando earthquake, activity around the epicentral area increased. This activity may be considered to be foreshock activity in a broad sense.« less

Energetic particles at venus: galileo results.

PubMed

Williams, D J; McEntire, R W; Krimigis, S M; Roelof, E C; Jaskulek, S; Tossman, B; Wilken, B; Stüdemann, W; Armstrong, T P; Fritz, T A; Lanzerotti, L J; Roederer, J G

1991-09-27

At Venus the Energetic Particles Detector (EPD) on the Galileo spacecraft measured the differential energy spectra and angular distributions of ions >22 kiloelectron volts (keV) and electrons > 15 keV in energy. The only time particles were observed by EPD was in a series of episodic events [0546 to 0638 universal time (UT)] near closest approach (0559:03 UT). Angular distributions were highly anisotropic, ordered by the magnetic field, and showed ions arriving from the hemisphere containing Venus and its bow shock. The spectra showed a power law form with intensities observed into the 120- to 280-keV range. Comparisons with model bow shock calculations show that these energetic ions are associated with the venusian foreshock-bow shock region. Shock-drift acceleration in the venusian bow shock seems the most likely process responsible for the observed ions.

Collaborative Research: failure of RockMasses from Nucleation and Growth of Microscopic Defects and Disorder

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klein, William

Over the 21 years of funding we have pursued several projects related to earthquakes, damage and nucleation. We developed simple models of earthquake faults which we studied to understand Gutenburg-Richter scaling, foreshocks and aftershocks, the effect of spatial structure of the faults and its interaction with underlying self organization and phase transitions. In addition we studied the formation of amorphous solids via the glass transition. We have also studied nucleation with a particular concentration on transitions in systems with a spatial symmetry change. In addition we investigated the nucleation process in models that mimic rock masses. We obtained the structuremore » of the droplet in both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. We also investigated the effect of defects or asperities on the nucleation of failure in simple models of earthquake faults.« less

Man-made Earthquakes & Multifractals in Neutral Fluid Turbulence/Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maksoed, Wh-

Man-made earthquakes coincides with induced seismicity:''typically minor earthquakes & tremors that are caused by human activity that alters the stresses & Strains on the earth crust''[Wikipedia:''induced seismicity'']. For these, RD Andrews wrote:''Based on observed seismicity rate &geographical trends following major oil & gas plays with large amounts of produced water, the rates &trends in seismicity are very unlikely to represent a naturally occurring process''. ``The Prague, Oklahoma, earthquake sequence of 2011, along the Wilzetta faults zone, included the significant foreshock, a main shock of magnetic 5.7, it has been suggested that this sequence represent earthquakes triggered by fluid injection/natural fluid turbulence shows multifractal characteristics , of [405 ]-325-7968 of Dr. G. Randy Keller to UI tuitions of @ Rp. 29, 405, 000.00. Acknowledgements to HE. Mr. H. TUK SETYOHADI, Jl. Sriwijaya Raya 3, South-Jakarta, INDONESIA.

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence.

PubMed

Kato, Aitaro; Nakamura, Kouji; Hiyama, Yohei

2016-01-01

Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An M j 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an M j 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest.

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

PubMed Central

KATO, Aitaro; NAKAMURA, Kouji; HIYAMA, Yohei

2016-01-01

Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An Mj 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an Mj 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest. PMID:27725474

Predicting financial market crashes using ghost singularities.

PubMed

Smug, Damian; Ashwin, Peter; Sornette, Didier

2018-01-01

We analyse the behaviour of a non-linear model of coupled stock and bond prices exhibiting periodically collapsing bubbles. By using the formalism of dynamical system theory, we explain what drives the bubbles and how foreshocks or aftershocks are generated. A dynamical phase space representation of that system coupled with standard multiplicative noise rationalises the log-periodic power law singularity pattern documented in many historical financial bubbles. The notion of 'ghosts of finite-time singularities' is introduced and used to estimate the end of an evolving bubble, using finite-time singularities of an approximate normal form near the bifurcation point. We test the forecasting skill of this method on different stochastic price realisations and compare with Monte Carlo simulations of the full system. Remarkably, the approximate normal form is significantly more precise and less biased. Moreover, the method of ghosts of singularities is less sensitive to the noise realisation, thus providing more robust forecasts.

Distribution of escaping ions produced by non-specular reflection at the stationary quasi-perpendicular shock front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gedalin, M.; Liverts, M.; Balikhin, M. A.

2008-05-01

Field-aligned and gyrophase bunched ion beams are observed in the foreshock of the Earth bow shock. One of the mechanisms proposed for their production is non-specular reflection at the shock front. We study the distributions which are formed at the stationary quasi-perpendicular shock front within the same process which is responsible for the generation of reflected ions and transmitted gyrating ions. The test particle motion analysis in a model shock allows one to identify the parameters which control the efficiency of the process and the features of the escaping ion distribution. These parameters are: the angle between the shock normal and the upstream magnetic field, the ratio of the ion thermal velocity to the flow velocity upstream, and the cross-shock potential. A typical distribution of escaping ions exhibits a bimodal pitch angle distribution (in the plasma rest frame).

PLASMA EMISSION BY COUNTER-STREAMING ELECTRON BEAMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ziebell, L. F.; Petruzzellis, L. T.; Gaelzer, R.

2016-02-10

The radiation emission mechanism responsible for both type-II and type-III solar radio bursts is commonly accepted as plasma emission. Recently Ganse et al. suggested that type-II radio bursts may be enhanced when the electron foreshock geometry of a coronal mass ejection contains a double hump structure. They reasoned that the counter-streaming electron beams that exist between the double shocks may enhance the nonlinear coalescence interaction, thereby giving rise to more efficient generation of radiation. Ganse et al. employed a particle-in-cell simulation to study such a scenario. The present paper revisits the same problem with EM weak turbulence theory, and showmore » that the fundamental (F) emission is not greatly affected by the presence of counter-streaming beams, but the harmonic (H) emission becomes somewhat more effective when the two beams are present. The present finding is thus complementary to the work by Ganse et al.« less

Electron beam interaction with space plasmas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krafft, C.; Bolokitin, A. S.

1999-12-01

Active space experiments involving the controlled injection of electron beams and the formation of artificially generated currents can provide in many cases a calibration of natural phenomena connected with the dynamic interaction of charged particles with fields. They have a long history beginning from the launches of small rockets with electron guns in order to map magnetic fields lines in the Earth's magnetosphere or to excite artificial auroras. Moreover, natural beams of charged particles exist in many space and astrophysical plasmas and were identified in situ by several satellites; a few examples are beams connected with solar bursts, planetary foreshocks or suprathermal fluxes traveling in planetary magnetospheres. Many experimental and theoretical works have been performed in order to interpret or plan space experiments involving beam injection as well as to understand the physics of wave-particle interaction, as wave radiation, beam dynamics and background plasma modification.

Predicting financial market crashes using ghost singularities

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

We analyse the behaviour of a non-linear model of coupled stock and bond prices exhibiting periodically collapsing bubbles. By using the formalism of dynamical system theory, we explain what drives the bubbles and how foreshocks or aftershocks are generated. A dynamical phase space representation of that system coupled with standard multiplicative noise rationalises the log-periodic power law singularity pattern documented in many historical financial bubbles. The notion of ‘ghosts of finite-time singularities’ is introduced and used to estimate the end of an evolving bubble, using finite-time singularities of an approximate normal form near the bifurcation point. We test the forecasting skill of this method on different stochastic price realisations and compare with Monte Carlo simulations of the full system. Remarkably, the approximate normal form is significantly more precise and less biased. Moreover, the method of ghosts of singularities is less sensitive to the noise realisation, thus providing more robust forecasts. PMID:29596485

Science Objectives for a Soft X-ray Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibeck, D. G.; Connor, H. K.; Collier, M. R.; Collado-Vega, Y. M.; Walsh, B.

2016-12-01

When high charge state solar wind ions exchange electrons with exospheric neutrals, soft X-rays are emitted. In conjunction with flight- proven wide field-of-view soft X-ray imagers employing lobster-eye optics, recent simulations demonstrate the feasibility of imaging magnetospheric density structures such as the bow shock, magnetopause, and cusps. This presentation examines the Heliospheric scientific objectives that such imagers can address. Principal amongst these is the nature of reconnection at the dayside magnetopause: steady or transient, widespread or localized, component or antiparallel as a function of solar wind conditions. However, amongst many other objectives, soft X-ray imagers can provide crucial information concerning the structure of the bow shock as a function of solar wind Mach number and IMF orientation, the presence or absence of a depletion layer, the occurrence of Kelvin-Helmholtz or pressure-pulse driven magnetopause boundary waves, and the effects of radial IMF orientations and the foreshock upon bow shock and magnetopause location.

UCLA IGPP Space Plasma Simulation Group

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

During the past 10 years the UCLA IGPP Space Plasma Simulation Group has pursued its theoretical effort to develop a Mission Oriented Theory (MOT) for the International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) program. This effort has been based on a combination of approaches: analytical theory, large scale kinetic (LSK) calculations, global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations and self-consistent plasma kinetic (SCK) simulations. These models have been used to formulate a global interpretation of local measurements made by the ISTP spacecraft. The regions of applications of the MOT cover most of the magnetosphere: the solar wind, the low- and high-latitude magnetospheric boundary, the near-Earth and distant magnetotail, and the auroral region. Most recent investigations include: plasma processes in the electron foreshock, response of the magnetospheric cusp, particle entry in the magnetosphere, sources of observed distribution functions in the magnetotail, transport of oxygen ions, self-consistent evolution of the magnetotail, substorm studies, effects of explosive reconnection, and auroral acceleration simulations.

Electron velocity distributions near the earth's bow shock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feldman, W. C.; Anderson, R. C.; Bame, S. J.; Gary, S. P.; Gosling, J. T.; Mccomas, D. J.; Thomsen, M. F.; Paschmann, G.; Hoppe, M. M.

1983-01-01

New information is presented on the general characteristics of electron distribution functions upstream, within, and downstream of the earth's bow shock, thereby providing new insights into the instabilities in collisionless shocks. The results presented are from a survey of electron velocity distributions measured near the earth's bow shock between October 1977 and December 1978 using the Los Alamos/Garching plasma instrumentation aboard ISEE 2. A wide variety of distribution shapes is found within the different plasma regions in close proximity to the bow shock. It is found that these shapes can be classified into general types that are characteristic of three different plasma regions, namely the upstream region or electron foreshock, the shock proper where most of the heating occurs, and the downstream region or the magnetosheath. Evidence is provided that field-aligned, rather than cross-field, instabilities are the major source of electron dissipation in the earth's bow shock.

Spatio-temporal evolution of the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma aftershock sequence revealed using subspace detection and relocation

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, Nicole D; Aster, Richard C.; Yeck, William; McNamara, Daniel E.; Benz, Harley M.

2017-01-01

The 6 November 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma is the second largest earthquake ever recorded in the state. A Mw 4.8 foreshock and the Mw 5.7 mainshock triggered a prolific aftershock sequence. Utilizing a subspace detection method, we increase by fivefold the number of precisely located events between 4 November and 5 December 2011. We find that while most aftershock energy is released in the crystalline basement, a significant number of the events occur in the overlying Arbuckle Group, indicating that active Meeker-Prague faulting extends into the sedimentary zone of wastewater disposal. Although the number of aftershocks in the Arbuckle Group is large, comprising ~40% of the aftershock catalog, the moment contribution of Arbuckle Group earthquakes is much less than 1% of the total aftershock moment budget. Aftershock locations are sparse in patches that experienced large slip during the mainshock.

Static stress transfer during the 2002 Nenana Mountain-Denali Fault, Alaska, earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, G.; Ji, C.

2003-01-01

On 23 October 2002, the Mw 6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake occurred in central Alaska. It was followed on 3 November 2002 by the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault mainshock, the largest strike-slip earthquake to occur in North America during the past 150 years. We have modeled static Coulomb stress transfer effects during this sequence. We find that the Nenana Mountain foreshock transferred 30-50 kPa of Coulomb stress to the hypocentral region of the Denali Fault mainshock, encouraging its occurrence. We also find that the two main earthquakes together transferred more than 400 kPa of Coulomb stress to the Cross Creek segment of the Totschunda fault system and to the Denali fault southeast of the mainshock rupture, and up to 80 kPa to the Denali fault west of the Nenana Mountain rupture. Other major faults in the region experienced much smaller static Coulomb stress changes.

Rapid changes in the electrical state of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture zone

PubMed Central

Honkura, Yoshimori; Oshiman, Naoto; Matsushima, Masaki; Barış, Şerif; Kemal Tunçer, Mustafa; Bülent Tank, Sabri; Çelik, Cengiz; Çiftçi, Elif Tolak

2013-01-01

Crustal fluids exist near fault zones, but their relation to the processes that generate earthquakes, including slow-slip events, is unclear. Fault-zone fluids are characterized by low electrical resistivity. Here we investigate the time-dependent crustal resistivity in the rupture area of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit earthquake using electromagnetic data acquired at four sites before and after the earthquake. Most estimates of apparent resistivity in the frequency range of 0.05 to 2.0 Hz show abrupt co-seismic decreases on the order of tens of per cent. Data acquired at two sites 1 month after the Izmit earthquake indicate that the resistivity had already returned to pre-seismic levels. We interpret such changes as the pressure-induced transition between isolated and interconnected fluids. Some data show pre-seismic changes and this suggests that the transition is associated with foreshocks and slow-slip events before large earthquakes. PMID:23820970

Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977.

PubMed

McNally, K C; Kanamori, H; Pechmann, J C; Fuis, G

1978-09-01

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude

The October 1992 Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, J.

1992-01-01

A magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred near Parkfield, California, on October 20, 992, at 05:28 UTC (October 19 at 10:28 p.m. local or Pacific Daylight Time).This moderate shock, interpreted as the potential foreshock of a damaging earthquake on the San Andreas fault, triggered long-standing federal, state and local government plans to issue a public warning of an imminent magnitude 6 earthquake near Parkfield. Although the predicted earthquake did not take place, sophisticated suites of instruments deployed as part of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment recorded valuable data associated with an unusual series of events. this article describes the geological aspects of these events, which occurred near Parkfield in October 1992. The accompnaying article, an edited version of a press conference b Richard Andrews, the Director of the California Office of Emergency Service (OES), describes governmental response to the prediction.   

Earthquake swarm along the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mcnally, K.C.; Kanamori, H.; Pechmann, J.C.; Fuis, G.

1978-01-01

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude ??? 3) occurred on or near the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, California. This swarm was the first observed along this section of the San Andreas since cataloging of instrumental data began in 1932. The activity followed partial subsidence of the 35-centimeter vertical crustal uplift known as the Palmdale bulge along this "locked" section of the San Andreas, which last broke in the great (surface-wave magnitude = 81/4+) 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. The swarm events exhibit characteristics previously observed for some foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown. Copyright ?? 1978 AAAS.

Disease and injury trends among evacuees in a shelter located at the epicenter of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, Japan.

PubMed

Yorifuji, Takashi; Sato, Takushi; Yoneda, Toru; Kishida, Yoshiomi; Yamamoto, Sumie; Sakai, Taro; Sashiyama, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Shuko; Orui, Hayato; Kato, Daisuke; Hasegawa, Taro; Suzuki, Yoshihiro; Okamoto, Maki; Hayashi, Hideki; Suganami, Shigeru

2017-06-16

Two huge earthquakes struck Kumamoto, Japan, in April 2016, forcing residents to evacuate. Few studies have reported early-phase disease and injury trends among evacuees following major inland earthquakes. We evaluated the trends among evacuees who visited a medical clinic in a shelter located at the epicenter of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes. The clinic opened on April 15, the day after the foreshock, and closed 3 weeks later. We reviewed medical charts related to 929 outpatient visits and conducted descriptive analyses. The evacuees experienced mild injuries and common diseases. The types of diseases changed weekly. Elderly people needed medical support for longer than other age groups. Future earthquakes may be inevitable, but establishing arrangements for medical needs or making precautions for infectious diseases in shelters could reduce the effects of earthquake-related health problems.

Whistler mode waves observed by MGF search coil magnetometer -Polarization and wave normal features of upstream waves near the bow-shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, K.; Matsui, H.; Kawano, H.; Yamamoto, T.; Kokubun, S.

1994-12-01

Whistler mode waves observed in the upstream region very close to the bow-shock is focused from the initial survey for magnetic fed data in a frequency range between 1Hz and 50Hz observed by the search coil magnetometer on board the Geotail satellite. Based on the three component wave form data polarization and wave-normal characteristics of foreshock waves is first shown as dynamic spectra for the whole Fourier components of the 50 Hz band width. Intense whistler mode waves generated in the foot region of the bow-shock are found strongly controlled in the observed polarization dependent on the angle between directions of the wave propagation and the solar wind flow but not very dependent on frequency. Our simple scheme to derive the ware characteristics which is effective to survey large amount of data continuously growing is also introduced.

Amplitude of foreshocks as a possible seismic precursor to earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindh, A.G.

1978-01-01

In recent years, we have made significant progress in being able to recognize the long-range pattern of events that precede large earthquakes. For example, in a recent issue of the Earthquake Information Bulletin, we saw how the pioneering work of S.A. Fedotov of the U.S.S.R in the Kamchatka-Kurile Islands region has been applied worldwide to forecast where large, shallow earthquakes might occur in the next decades. Indeed, such a "seismic gap" off the coast of Alaska was filled by the 1972 Sitka earthquake. Promising results are slowly accumulating from other techniques that suggest that intermediate-term precursors might also be seen: among these are tilt and geomagnetic anomalies and anomalous land uplift. But the crucial point remains that short-term precursors (days to hours) will be needed in many cases if there is to be a significant saving of lives. 

Nonthermal ions and associated magnetic field behavior at a quasi-parallel earth's bow shock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilkinson, W. P.; Pardaens, A. K.; Schwartz, S. J.; Burgess, D.; Luehr, H.; Kessel, R. L.; Dunlop, M.; Farrugia, C. J.

1993-01-01

Attention is given to ion and magnetic field measurements at the earth's bow shock from the AMPTE-UKS and -IRM spacecraft, which were examined in high time resolution during a 45-min interval when the field remained closely aligned with the model bow shock normal. Dense ion beams were detected almost exclusively in the midst of short-duration periods of turbulent magnetic field wave activity. Many examples of propagation at large elevation angles relative to the ecliptic plane, which is inconsistent with reflection in the standard model shock configuration, were discovered. The associated waves are elliptically polarized and are preferentially left-handed in the observer's frame of reference, but are less confined to the maximum variance plane than other previously studied foreshock waves. The association of the wave activity with the ion beams suggests that the former may be triggered by an ion-driven instability, and possible candidates are discussed.

The 2008 Mw 7.2 North Pagai earthquake sequence: Partial rupture of a fully locked Mentawai patch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, R.; Hill, E.; Feng, L.; Wei, S.; Barbot, S.; Lindsey, E.; WANG, X.; Chen, W.; Bannerjee, P.; Hermawan, I.; Natawidjaja, D. H.

2016-12-01

The Mentawai patch is a seismic gap along the Sumatra subduction zone that has not ruptured completely over the last decade. This is worrying because coral colonies of the Mentawai islands show that over the last 700 years the Mentawai patch ruptured in a sequence of great earthquake (Mw > 8.5) about every two centuries. In September 2007, the Mw 8.4 Bengkulu earthquake ruptured the southern section of the Mentawai patch. The event was then followed by two Mw >= 7 aftershocks. Five months later, the 2008 Mw 7.2 earthquake ruptured a small asperity a little further north. The event ruptured a small area in the middle portion of the Mentawai patch, where the megathrust had been estimated as highly coupled. The mainshock was preceded by a foreshock of Mw 6.5 one day before and two M 6 aftershocks that occurred on the same day as the mainshock event. However, the whole earthquake sequence ruptured only a confined area on the megathrust and failed to wake up the sleeping giant. We have yet to explain why the 2008 event did not break more asperities and develop into one gargantuan earthquake. In this study, we use geodetic and seismic data to investigate the 2008 earthquake, its following afterslip, and its fore- and after-shocks. First, we jointly invert static and high-rate cGPS, InSAR and teleseismic data in a joint inversion for a co-seismic slip distribution of the mainshock. Second, we invert teleseismic data alone to develop slip models for the foreshock, mainshock and aftershock events. Third, we use the Cut-And-Paste (CAP) technique to estimate a more accurate depths for the 2008 earthquake sequence. Finally, we use six years of cGPS data, from 2008 to 2013, to develop a model for afterslip. Our preliminary results show 2 meters of peak coseismic slip for the mainshock. In addition, 1 meter of peak afterslip overlap with the coseismic slip model. The total estimated slip is far smaller than expected from the accumulated strain that has been stored in the Mentawai patch since the last earthquake in 1833. Thus, the likelihood that the Mentawai patch will generate another great earthquake in the near future remains high. But the possibility of releasing the accumulated strain piecemeal in smaller earthquakes cannot be ruled out.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence of the 6 July 2017 M5.8 Lincoln, Montana Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, N. D.; Stickney, M.; Aster, R. C.; Yeck, W.; Martens, H. R.; Benz, H.

2017-12-01

On 6 July 2017, a Mw 5.8 earthquake occurred 11 km southeast of Lincoln, Montana. The event was widely-felt from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (750 km north), Seattle, Washington (800 km west), the Idaho/Utah and Idaho/Nevada borders (550 km south), and Rapid City, South Dakota (750 km east). This is the largest earthquake to occur in the state since the 1959 M 7.3 Hebgen Lake event 250 km to the southeast. In the three weeks following the 6 July 2017 Mw 5.8 main shock, the U.S. Geological Survey and Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology located more than 300 aftershocks. Preliminary observations show most of these aftershocks form a short NNE zone that suggests that the main shock may have slipped on a NNE left-lateral fault. A smaller number of aftershocks extend along a longer WNW-trending zone. These faults are part of the Lewis and Clark line, a prominent zone of Middle Proterozoic to Holocene age strike-slip, dip slip, and oblique slip faulting trending 400 km east-southeast from northern Idaho to east of Helena, Montana, and terminating southeast of this earthquake. We use identified aftershock waveforms as templates to examine the data from 1 June 2017 through 27 July 2017 with cross-correlation techniques on nearby permanent and temporary seismic stations deployed shortly after the mainshock to identify foreshocks and additional small aftershocks. Locating these events allows us to study subsurface geology, map fault structures, and provide insight on the spatial and temporal evolution of the earthquake sequence, which may continue to produce aftershocks for years. Other notable earthquakes in the region include a damaging M 6.6 earthquake 100 km to the south in June 1925, M 6.2 and M 6.0 earthquakes near Helena, Montana in October 1935 that caused significant damage and four fatalities, and a M 5.6 earthquake 170 km to the south in July 2005 that caused minor damage in Dillon and the surrounding region. We hope this work not only allows us to map the involved faults and detail hazards associated with them, but helps to raise awareness in general about the underrepresented hazard associated with intraplate seismicity and the reactivation of older preexisting faults that have few, if any, Quaternary expressions.

The 2008 Wells, Nevada Earthquake Sequence: Application of Subspace Detection and Multiple Event Relocation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nealy, J. L.; Benz, H.; Hayes, G. P.; Bergman, E.; Barnhart, W. D.

2016-12-01

On February 21, 2008 at 14:16:02 (UTC), Wells, Nevada experienced a Mw 6.0 earthquake, the largest earthquake in the state within the past 50 years. Here, we re-analyze in detail the spatiotemporal variations of the foreshock and aftershock sequence and compare the distribution of seismicity to a recent slip model based on inversion of InSAR observations. A catalog of earthquakes for the time period of February 1, 2008 through August 31, 2008 was derived from a combination of arrival time picks using a kurtosis detector (primarily P arrival times), subspace detector (primarily S arrival times), associating the combined pick dataset, and applying multiple event relocation techniques using the 19 closest USArray Transportable Array stations, permanent regional seismic monitoring stations in Nevada and Utah, and temporary stations deployed for an aftershock study. We were able to detect several thousand earthquakes in the months following the mainshock as well as several foreshocks in the days leading up to the event. We reviewed the picks for the largest 986 earthquakes and relocated them using the Hypocentroidal Decomposition (HD) method. The HD technique provides both relative locations for the individual earthquakes and an absolute location for the earthquake cluster, resulting in absolute locations of the events in the cluster having minimal bias from unknown Earth structure. A subset of these "calibrated" earthquake locations that spanned the duration of the sequence and had small uncertainties in location were used as prior constraints within a second relocation effort using the entire dataset and the Bayesloc approach. Accurate locations (to within 2 km) were obtained using Bayesloc for 1,952 of the 2,157 events associated over the seven-month period of the study. The final catalog of earthquake hypocenters indicates that the aftershocks extend for about 20 km along the strike of the ruptured fault. The aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip as modeled by seismic waveform inversion (Dreger et al., 2011) and by InSAR. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase and their depths are consistent with InSAR imaging, which showed that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

The Iquique 2014 sequence: understanding its nucleation and propagation from the seismicity evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuenzalida, A.; Rietbrock, A.; Woollam, J.; Tavera, H.; Ruiz, S.

2017-12-01

The Northern Chile and Southern Peru region is well known for its high seismic hazard due to the lack of recent major ruptures along long segments of the subduction interface. For this reason the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake that occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap was expected and high quality seismic and geodetic networks were operating at the time of the event recording the precursory phase of a mega-thrust event with unprecedented detail. In this study we used seismic data collected during the 2014 Iquique sequence to generate a detailed earthquake catalogue. This catalogue consists of more than 15,000 events identified in Northern Chile during the period between 1/3/14 and 31/5/14 and provides full coverage of the immediate foreshock sequence, the main-shock and early after-shock series. The initial catalogue was obtained by automatic data processing and only selecting events with at least two associate S phases to improve the reliability of initial locations. Subsequently, this subset of events was automatically processed again using an optimized STA/LTA triggering algorithm for both P and S-waves and constraining the detection times by estimated arrival times at each station calculated for the preliminary locations. Finally, all events were relocated using a recently developed 1D velocity model and associated station corrections. For events Mw 4 or larger that occurred between the 15/3/14 and 10/04/14, we estimated it regional moment tensor by full-waveform inversion. Our results confirm the seismic activation of the upper plate during the foreshock sequence, as well highlight a crustal activity on the fore-arc during the aftershock series. The seismicity distribution was compared to the previous inter-seismic coupling studies obtained in the region, in which we observe interplay between high and low coupling areas, which are correlated to the seismicity rate. The spatial distribution of the seismicity and the complexities on the mechanisms observed during the sequence can be associated to the observed seamounts belonging to the Iquique ridge by previous marine experiment. To conclude our study, we perform a space and time analysis of the seismicity and we propose several scenarios to explain the nucleation of the earthquake and the way on which the seismicity behave during the sequence.

Distribution and solar wind control of compressional solar wind-magnetic anomaly interactions observed at the Moon by ARTEMIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halekas, J. S.; Poppe, A. R.; Lue, C.; Farrell, W. M.; McFadden, J. P.

2017-06-01

A statistical investigation of 5 years of observations from the two-probe Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence, and Electrodynamics of Moon's Interaction with the Sun (ARTEMIS) mission reveals that strong compressional interactions occur infrequently at high altitudes near the ecliptic but can form in a wide range of solar wind conditions and can occur up to two lunar radii downstream from the lunar limb. The compressional events, some of which may represent small-scale collisionless shocks ("limb shocks"), occur in both steady and variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions, with those forming in steady IMF well organized by the location of lunar remanent crustal magnetization. The events observed by ARTEMIS have similarities to ion foreshock phenomena, and those observed in variable IMF conditions may result from either local lunar interactions or distant terrestrial foreshock interactions. Observed velocity deflections associated with compressional events are always outward from the lunar wake, regardless of location and solar wind conditions. However, events for which the observed velocity deflection is parallel to the upstream motional electric field form in distinctly different solar wind conditions and locations than events with antiparallel deflections. Consideration of the momentum transfer between incoming and reflected solar wind populations helps explain the observed characteristics of the different groups of events.