Assessing management effects on Oak forests in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Sishir; Pietsch, Stephan A.; Hasenauer, Hubert

2010-05-01

Historic land use as well as silvicultural management practices have changed the structures and species composition of central European forests. Such changes have effects on the growth of forests and contribute to global warming. As insufficient information on historic forest management is available it is hard to explain the effect of management on forests growth and its possible consequences to the environment. In this situation, the BIOME-BGC model, which integrates the main physical, biological and physiological processes based on current understanding of ecophysiology is an option for assessing the management effects through tracking the cycling of energy, water, carbon and nutrients within a given ecosystems. Such models are increasingly employed to simulate current and future forest dynamics. This study first compares observed standing tree volume, carbon and nitrogen content in soil in the high forests and coppice with standards stands of Oak forests in Austria. Biome BGC is then used to assess the effects of management on forest growth and to explain the differences with measured parameters. Close positive correlations and unbiased results and statistically insignificant differences between predicted and observed volumes indicates the application of the model as a diagnostic tool to assess management effects in oak forests. The observed data in 2006 and 2009 was further compared with the results of respective model runs. Further analysis on simulated data shows that thinning leads to an increase in growth efficiency (GE), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and water use efficiency (WUE), and to a decrease in the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in both forests. Among all studied growth parameters, only the difference in the NUE was statistically significant. This indicates that the difference in the yield of forests is mainly governed by the NUE difference in stands due to thinning. The coppice with standards system produces an equal amount of net primary production while consuming significantly less nitrogen compared to the high forests.

Quantifying the effect of forests on frequency and intensity of rockfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moos, Christine; Dorren, Luuk; Stoffel, Markus

2017-02-01

Forests serve as a natural means of protection against small rockfalls. Due to their barrier effect, they reduce the intensity and the propagation probability of falling rocks and thus reduce the occurrence frequency of a rockfall event for a given element at risk. However, despite established knowledge on the protective effect of forests, they are generally neglected in quantitative rockfall risk analyses. Their inclusion in quantitative rockfall risk assessment would, however, be necessary to express their efficiency in monetary terms and to allow comparison of forests with other protective measures, such as nets and dams. The goal of this study is to quantify the effect of forests on the occurrence frequency and intensity of rockfalls. We therefore defined an onset frequency of blocks based on a power-law magnitude-frequency distribution and determined their propagation probabilities on a virtual slope based on rockfall simulations. Simulations were run for different forest and non-forest scenarios under varying forest stand and terrain conditions. We analysed rockfall frequencies and intensities at five different distances from the release area. Based on two multivariate statistical prediction models, we investigated which of the terrain and forest characteristics predominantly drive the role of forest in reducing rockfall occurrence frequency and intensity and whether they are able to predict the effect of forest on rockfall risk. The rockfall occurrence frequency below forested slopes is reduced between approximately 10 and 90 % compared to non-forested slope conditions; whereas rockfall intensity is reduced by 10 to 70 %. This reduction increases with increasing slope length and decreases with decreasing tree density, tree diameter and increasing rock volume, as well as in cases of clustered or gappy forest structures. The statistical prediction models reveal that the cumulative basal area of trees, block volume and horizontal forest structure represent key variables for the prediction of the protective effect of forests. In order to validate these results, models have to be tested on real slopes with a wide variation of terrain and forest conditions.

Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas

2015-01-01

Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

Assessing the effects of management on forest growth across France: insights from a new functional-structural model.

PubMed

Guillemot, Joannès; Delpierre, Nicolas; Vallet, Patrick; François, Christophe; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K; Soudani, Kamel; Nicolas, Manuel; Badeau, Vincent; Dufrêne, Eric

2014-09-01

The structure of a forest stand, i.e. the distribution of tree size features, has strong effects on its functioning. The management of the structure is therefore an important tool in mitigating the impact of predicted changes in climate on forests, especially with respect to drought. Here, a new functional-structural model is presented and is used to assess the effects of management on forest functioning at a national scale. The stand process-based model (PBM) CASTANEA was coupled to a stand structure module (SSM) based on empirical tree-to-tree competition rules. The calibration of the SSM was based on a thorough analysis of intersite and interannual variability of competition asymmetry. The coupled CASTANEA-SSM model was evaluated across France using forest inventory data, and used to compare the effect of contrasted silvicultural practices on simulated stand carbon fluxes and growth. The asymmetry of competition varied consistently with stand productivity at both spatial and temporal scales. The modelling of the competition rules enabled efficient prediction of changes in stand structure within the CASTANEA PBM. The coupled model predicted an increase in net primary productivity (NPP) with management intensity, resulting in higher growth. This positive effect of management was found to vary at a national scale across France: the highest increases in NPP were attained in forests facing moderate to high water stress; however, the absolute effect of management on simulated stand growth remained moderate to low because stand thinning involved changes in carbon allocation at the tree scale. This modelling approach helps to identify the areas where management efforts should be concentrated in order to mitigate near-future drought impact on national forest productivity. Around a quarter of the French temperate oak and beech forests are currently in zones of high vulnerability, where management could thus mitigate the influence of climate change on forest yield.

Implications of mechanistic modeling of drought effects on growth and competition in forest landscape models

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Arjan M. G. De Bruijn; Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; J. Thompson

2016-01-01

The incidence of drought is expected to increase worldwide as a factor structuring forested landscapes. Ecophysiological mechanisms are being added to Forest Landscape Models (FLMs) to increase their robustness to the novel environmental conditions of the future (including drought), but their behavior has not been evaluated for mixed temperate forests. We evaluated...

Assessing the effect of climate change on carbon sequestration in a Mexican dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula

Treesearch

Z. Dai; K.D. Johnson; R.A. Birdsey; J.L. Hernandez-Stefanoni; J.M. Dupuy

2015-01-01

Assessing the effect of climate change on carbon sequestration in tropical forest ecosystems is important to inform monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) for reducing deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), and to effectively assess forest management options under climate change. Two process-based models, Forest-DNDC and Biome-BGC, with different spatial...

Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Zhao, Maosheng; Motesharrei, Safa; Mu, Qiaozhen; Kalnay, Eugenia; Li, Shuangcheng

2015-03-31

The biophysical effects of forests on climate have been extensively studied with climate models. However, models cannot accurately reproduce local climate effects due to their coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties, and field observations are valuable but often insufficient due to their limited coverage. Here we present new evidence acquired from global satellite data to analyse the biophysical effects of forests on local climate. Results show that tropical forests have a strong cooling effect throughout the year; temperate forests show moderate cooling in summer and moderate warming in winter with net cooling annually; and boreal forests have strong warming in winter and moderate cooling in summer with net warming annually. The spatiotemporal cooling or warming effects are mainly driven by the two competing biophysical effects, evapotranspiration and albedo, which in turn are strongly influenced by rainfall and snow. Implications of our satellite-based study could be useful for informing local forestry policies.

Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Zhao, Maosheng; Motesharrei, Safa; Mu, Qiaozhen; Kalnay, Eugenia; Li, Shuangcheng

2015-01-01

The biophysical effects of forests on climate have been extensively studied with climate models. However, models cannot accurately reproduce local climate effects due to their coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties, and field observations are valuable but often insufficient due to their limited coverage. Here we present new evidence acquired from global satellite data to analyse the biophysical effects of forests on local climate. Results show that tropical forests have a strong cooling effect throughout the year; temperate forests show moderate cooling in summer and moderate warming in winter with net cooling annually; and boreal forests have strong warming in winter and moderate cooling in summer with net warming annually. The spatiotemporal cooling or warming effects are mainly driven by the two competing biophysical effects, evapotranspiration and albedo, which in turn are strongly influenced by rainfall and snow. Implications of our satellite-based study could be useful for informing local forestry policies. PMID:25824529

Effects of Model Choice and Forest Structure on Inventory-Based Estimations of Puerto Rican Forest Biomass.

Treesearch

THOMAS J. BRANDEIS; MARIA DEL ROCIO SUAREZ ROZO

2005-01-01

Total aboveground live tree biomass in Puerto Rican lower montane wet, subtropical wet, subtropical moist and subtropical dry forests was estimated using data from two forest inventories and published regression equations. Multiple potentially-applicable published biomass models existed for some forested life zones, and their estimates tended to diverge with increasing...

Effects of model choice and forest structure on inventory-based estimations of Puerto Rican forest biomass

Treesearch

Thomas J. Brandeis; Maria Del Rocio; Suarez Rozo

2005-01-01

Total aboveground live tree biomass in Puerto Rican lower montane wet, subtropical wet, subtropical moist and subtropical dry forests was estimated using data from two forest inventories and published regression equations. Multiple potentially-applicable published biomass models existed for some forested life zones, and their estimates tended to diverge with increasing...

[Responses of boreal forest landscape in northern Great Xing'an Mountains of Northeast China to climate change].

PubMed

Li, Xiao-Na; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Liang, Yu

2012-12-01

With the combination of forest landscape model (LANDIS) and forest gap model (LINKAGES), this paper simulated the effects of climate change on the boreal forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared the direct effects of climate change and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on the forest landscape. The results showed that under the current climate conditions and fire disturbances, the forest landscape in the study area could maintain its dynamic balance, and Larix gmelinii was still the dominant tree species. Under the future climate and fire disturbances scenario, the distribution area of L. gmelinii and Pinus pumila would be decreased, while that of Betula platyphylla, Populus davidiana, Populus suaveolens, Chosenia arbutifolia, and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica would be increased, and the forest fragmentation and forest diversity would have an increase. The changes of the forest landscape lagged behind climate change. Climate warming would increase the growth of most tree species except L. gmelinii, while the increased fires would increase the distribution area of P. davidiana, P. suaveolens, and C. arbutifolia and decrease the distribution area of L. gmelinii, P. sylvestris var. mongolica, and P. pumila. The effects of climate warming-induced fires on the forest landscape were almost equal to the direct effects of climate change, and aggravated the direct effects of climate change on forest composition, forest landscape fragmentation, and forest landscape diversity.

Multiple metrics of diversity have different effects on temperate forest functioning over succession.

PubMed

Yuan, Zuoqiang; Wang, Shaopeng; Gazol, Antonio; Mellard, Jarad; Lin, Fei; Ye, Ji; Hao, Zhanqing; Wang, Xugao; Loreau, Michel

2016-12-01

Biodiversity can be measured by taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity. How ecosystem functioning depends on these measures of diversity can vary from site to site and depends on successional stage. Here, we measured taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity, and examined their relationship with biomass in two successional stages of the broad-leaved Korean pine forest in northeastern China. Functional diversity was calculated from six plant traits, and aboveground biomass (AGB) and coarse woody productivity (CWP) were estimated using data from three forest censuses (10 years) in two large fully mapped forest plots (25 and 5 ha). 11 of the 12 regressions between biomass variables (AGB and CWP) and indices of diversity showed significant positive relationships, especially those with phylogenetic diversity. The mean tree diversity-biomass regressions increased from 0.11 in secondary forest to 0.31 in old-growth forest, implying a stronger biodiversity effect in more mature forest. Multi-model selection results showed that models including species richness, phylogenetic diversity, and single functional traits explained more variation in forest biomass than other candidate models. The models with a single functional trait, i.e., leaf area in secondary forest and wood density in mature forest, provided better explanations for forest biomass than models that combined all six functional traits. This finding may reflect different strategies in growth and resource acquisition in secondary and old-growth forests.

Birds in Anthropogenic Landscapes: The Responses of Ecological Groups to Forest Loss in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

PubMed

Morante-Filho, José Carlos; Faria, Deborah; Mariano-Neto, Eduardo; Rhodes, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Habitat loss is the dominant threat to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in terrestrial environments. In this study, we used an a priori classification of bird species based on their dependence on native forest habitats (forest-specialist and habitat generalists) and specific food resources (frugivores and insectivores) to evaluate their responses to forest cover reduction in landscapes in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. From the patch-landscapes approach, we delimited 40 forest sites, and quantified the percentage of native forest within a 2 km radius around the center of each site (from 6 - 85%). At each site, we sampled birds using the point-count method. We used a null model, a generalized linear model and a four-parameter logistic model to evaluate the relationship between richness and abundance of the bird groups and the native forest amount. A piecewise model was then used to determine the threshold value for bird groups that showed nonlinear responses. The richness and abundance of the bird community as a whole were not affected by changes in forest cover in this region. However, a decrease in forest cover had a negative effect on diversity of forest-specialist, frugivorous and insectivorous birds, and a positive effect on generalist birds. The species richness and abundance of all ecological groups were nonlinearly related to forest reduction and showed similar threshold values, i.e., there were abrupt changes in individuals and species numbers when forest amount was less than approximately 50%. Forest sites within landscapes with forest cover that was less than 50% contained a different bird species composition than more extensively forested sites and had fewer forest-specialist species and higher beta-diversity. Our study demonstrated the pervasive effect of forest reduction on bird communities in one of the most important hotspots for bird conservation and shows that many vulnerable species require extensive forest cover to persist.

Birds in Anthropogenic Landscapes: The Responses of Ecological Groups to Forest Loss in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

PubMed Central

Morante-Filho, José Carlos; Rhodes, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Habitat loss is the dominant threat to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in terrestrial environments. In this study, we used an a priori classification of bird species based on their dependence on native forest habitats (forest-specialist and habitat generalists) and specific food resources (frugivores and insectivores) to evaluate their responses to forest cover reduction in landscapes in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. From the patch-landscapes approach, we delimited 40 forest sites, and quantified the percentage of native forest within a 2 km radius around the center of each site (from 6 - 85%). At each site, we sampled birds using the point-count method. We used a null model, a generalized linear model and a four-parameter logistic model to evaluate the relationship between richness and abundance of the bird groups and the native forest amount. A piecewise model was then used to determine the threshold value for bird groups that showed nonlinear responses. The richness and abundance of the bird community as a whole were not affected by changes in forest cover in this region. However, a decrease in forest cover had a negative effect on diversity of forest-specialist, frugivorous and insectivorous birds, and a positive effect on generalist birds. The species richness and abundance of all ecological groups were nonlinearly related to forest reduction and showed similar threshold values, i.e., there were abrupt changes in individuals and species numbers when forest amount was less than approximately 50%. Forest sites within landscapes with forest cover that was less than 50% contained a different bird species composition than more extensively forested sites and had fewer forest-specialist species and higher beta-diversity. Our study demonstrated the pervasive effect of forest reduction on bird communities in one of the most important hotspots for bird conservation and shows that many vulnerable species require extensive forest cover to persist. PMID:26083245

The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

2016-08-01

Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the Catchment Simulator modelling frameworks based on the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO) model, which was expanded to estimate discharge by incorporating the effects of forest-type transition across the whole of Japan. The results indicated that, by the 2090s, annual runoff will increase above present-day values. Increases in annual variation in runoff by the 2090s was predicted to be around 14.1% when using the MRI-GCM data and 44.4% when using the HadGEM data. Analysis by long-term projection showed the largest increases in runoff in the 2090s were related to the type of forest, such as evergreen. Increased runoff can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including increased flooding events, worsened water quality, habitat destruction and changes to the forest moisture-retaining function. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on water generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating bird-habitat modeling into national forest planning for bird conservation in the southern Appalachians

Treesearch

David A. Buehler; Eric T. Linder; Kathleen E. Franzreb; Nathan A. Klaus; Randy Dettmers; John G. Bartlett

2005-01-01

We developed spatially-explicit bird-habitat models with a variety of site-specific and landscape parameters to predict avian species distributions on southern Appalachian National Forests to aid National Forests with bird conservation planning. These models can be used to assess the effects of different forest management alternatives on long-term population viability...

Carbon fluxes in tropical forest ecosystems: the value of Eddy-covariance data for individual-based dynamic forest gap models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roedig, Edna; Cuntz, Matthias; Huth, Andreas

2015-04-01

The effects of climatic inter-annual fluctuations and human activities on the global carbon cycle are uncertain and currently a major issue in global vegetation models. Individual-based forest gap models, on the other hand, model vegetation structure and dynamics on a small spatial (<100 ha) and large temporal scale (>1000 years). They are well-established tools to reproduce successions of highly-diverse forest ecosystems and investigate disturbances as logging or fire events. However, the parameterizations of the relationships between short-term climate variability and forest model processes are often uncertain in these models (e.g. daily variable temperature and gross primary production (GPP)) and cannot be constrained from forest inventories. We addressed this uncertainty and linked high-resolution Eddy-covariance (EC) data with an individual-based forest gap model. The forest model FORMIND was applied to three diverse tropical forest sites in the Amazonian rainforest. Species diversity was categorized into three plant functional types. The parametrizations for the steady-state of biomass and forest structure were calibrated and validated with different forest inventories. The parameterizations of relationships between short-term climate variability and forest model processes were evaluated with EC-data on a daily time step. The validations of the steady-state showed that the forest model could reproduce biomass and forest structures from forest inventories. The daily estimations of carbon fluxes showed that the forest model reproduces GPP as observed by the EC-method. Daily fluctuations of GPP were clearly reflected as a response to daily climate variability. Ecosystem respiration remains a challenge on a daily time step due to a simplified soil respiration approach. In the long-term, however, the dynamic forest model is expected to estimate carbon budgets for highly-diverse tropical forests where EC-measurements are rare.

Application of a distributed process-based hydrologic model to estimate the effects of forest road density on stormflows in the Southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Salli F. Dymond; W. Michael Aust; Stephen P. Prisley; Mark H. Eisenbies; James M. Vose

2014-01-01

Managed forests have historically been linked to watershed protection and flood mitigation. Research indicates that forests can potentially minimize peak flows during storm events, yet the relationship between forests and flooding is complex. Forest roads, usually found in managed systems, can potentially magnify the effects of forest harvesting on water yields. The...

Modeling carbon stocks in a secondary tropical dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Treesearch

Zhaohua Dai; Richard A. Birdsey; Kristofer D. Johnson; Juan Manuel Dupuy; Jose Luis Hernandez-Stefanoni; Karen Richardson

2014-01-01

The carbon balance of secondary dry tropical forests of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is sensitive to human and natural disturbances and climate change. The spatially explicit process model Forest-DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) was used to estimate forest carbon dynamics in this region, including the effects of disturbance on carbon stocks. Model evaluation using...

Effects of lidar pulse density and sample size on a model-assisted approach to estimate forest inventory variables

Treesearch

Jacob Strunk; Hailemariam Temesgen; Hans-Erik Andersen; James P. Flewelling; Lisa Madsen

2012-01-01

Using lidar in an area-based model-assisted approach to forest inventory has the potential to increase estimation precision for some forest inventory variables. This study documents the bias and precision of a model-assisted (regression estimation) approach to forest inventory with lidar-derived auxiliary variables relative to lidar pulse density and the number of...

Comparing simulated carbon budget of a Lei bamboo forest with flux tower data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Xuehe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Sun, Cheng; Wang, Ying; Jin, Jiaxin

2014-01-01

Bamboo forest ecosystem is the part of the forest ecosystem. The distribution area of bamboo forest is limited, but in somewhere, like south China, it has been cultivate for a long time with human management. As the climate change has been take great effect on forest carbon budget, many researchers pay attention to the carbon budget in bamboo forest. Moreover cultivative management had a significant impact on the bamboo forest carbon budget. In this study, we modified a terrestrial ecosystem model named Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) according the management of Lei bamboo forest. Some management, like fertilization, shoots harvesting and organic mulching in winter, had been incorporated into model. Then we had compared model results with the observation data from a Lei bamboo flux tower. The simulated and observed results had achieved good consistency. Our simulated Lei bamboo forest yearly net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 0.41 kgC a-1 of carbon, which is very close to the observation data 0.45 kgC a-1 of carbon. And the monthly simulated results can take the change of carbon budget in each month, similar to the data we got from flux tower. It reflects that the modified IBIS model can characterize the growth of bamboo forest and perform the simulation well. And then two groups of simulations were set to evaluate effects of cultivative managements on Lei bamboo forests carbon budget. And results showed that both fertilization and organic mulching had taken positive effects on Lei bamboo forests carbon sequestration.

Chapter 8: Simulating mortality from forest insects and diseases

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes; Craig L. Schmitt

2004-01-01

We describe methods for incorporating the effects of insects and diseases on coniferous forests into forest simulation models and discuss options for including this capability in the modeling work of the Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) project. Insects and diseases are major disturbance agents in forested ecosystems in the Western United States,...

Modeling the mitigation effect of coastal forests on tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

2017-08-01

As we have learned from the 26 Dec 2004 mega Andaman tsunami that killed 250, 000 lives worldwide, tsunami is a devastating natural disaster that can cause severe impacts including immense loss of human lives and extensive destruction of properties. The wave energy can be dissipated by the presence of coastal mangrove forests, which provide some degree of protection against tsunami waves. On the other hand, costly artificial structures such as reinforced walls can substantially diminish the aesthetic value and may cause environmental problems. To quantify the effectiveness of coastal forests in mitigating tsunami waves, an in-house 2-D model TUNA-RP is developed and used to quantify the reduction in wave heights and velocities due to the presence of coastal forests. The degree of reduction varies significantly depending on forest flow-resistant properties such as vegetation characteristics, forest density and forest width. The ability of coastal forest in reducing tsunami wave heights along the west coast of Penang Island is quantified by means of model simulations. Comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and 2-D TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrated good agreement.

Modeling climate and fuel reduction impacts on mixed-conifer forest carbon stocks in the Sierra Nevada, California

Treesearch

Matthew D. Hurteau; Timothy A. Robards; Donald Stevens; David Saah; Malcolm North; George W. Koch

2014-01-01

Quantifying the impacts of changing climatic conditions on forest growth is integral to estimating future forest carbon balance. We used a growth-and-yield model, modified for climate sensitivity, to quantify the effects of altered climate on mixed-conifer forest growth in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Estimates of forest growth and live tree carbon stocks were...

Simulating the impact of human land use change on forest composition in the Great Plains agroecosystems with the Seedscape model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Easterling, W.E.; Brandle, J.R.; Hays, C.J.; Guo, Q.; Guertin, D.S.

2001-01-01

The expansion and contraction of marginal cropland in the Great Plains often involves small forested strips of land that provide important ecological benefits. The effect of human disturbance on these forests is not well known. Because of their unique structure such forests are not well-represented by forest gap models. In this paper, the development, testing and application of a new model known as Seedscape are described. Seedscape is a modification of the JABOWA-II model, and it uses a spatially-explicit landscape to resolve small-scale features of highly fragmented forests in the eastern Great Plains. It was tested and evaluated with observations from two sites, one in Nebraska and a second in eastern Iowa. Seedscape realistically simulates succession at the Nebraska site, but is less successful at the Iowa site. Seedscape was also applied to the Nebraska site to simulate the effect that varying forest corridor widths, in response to the presumed expansion/contraction of adjacent agricultural land, has on succession properties. Results suggest that small differences in widths have negligible effects on forest composition, but large differences in widths may cause statistically-significant changes in the relative importance of some species. We assert that long-term ecological change in human dominated landscapes is not well understood, in part, because of inadequate modeling techniques. Seedscape provides a much-needed tool for assessing the ecological implications of land use change in forests of predominately agricultural landscapes.

Hierarchical, parallel computing strategies using component object model for process modelling responses of forest plantations to interacting multiple stresses

Treesearch

J. G. Isebrands; G. E. Host; K. Lenz; G. Wu; H. W. Stech

2000-01-01

Process models are powerful research tools for assessing the effects of multiple environmental stresses on forest plantations. These models are driven by interacting environmental variables and often include genetic factors necessary for assessing forest plantation growth over a range of different site, climate, and silvicultural conditions. However, process models are...

Height-diameter allometry and above ground biomass in tropical montane forests: Insights from the Albertine Rift in Africa

PubMed Central

Boyemba, Faustin; Lewis, Simon; Nabahungu, Nsharwasi Léon; Calders, Kim; Zapfack, Louis; Riera, Bernard; Balegamire, Clarisse; Cuni-Sanchez, Aida

2017-01-01

Tropical montane forests provide an important natural laboratory to test ecological theory. While it is well-known that some aspects of forest structure change with altitude, little is known on the effects of altitude on above ground biomass (AGB), particularly with regard to changing height-diameter allometry. To address this we investigate (1) the effects of altitude on height-diameter allometry, (2) how different height-diameter allometric models affect above ground biomass estimates; and (3) how other forest structural, taxonomic and environmental attributes affect above ground biomass using 30 permanent sample plots (1-ha; all trees ≥ 10 cm diameter measured) established between 1250 and 2600 m asl in Kahuzi Biega National Park in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Forest structure and species composition differed with increasing altitude, with four forest types identified. Different height-diameter allometric models performed better with the different forest types, as trees got smaller with increasing altitude. Above ground biomass ranged from 168 to 290 Mg ha-1, but there were no significant differences in AGB between forests types, as tree size decreased but stem density increased with increasing altitude. Forest structure had greater effects on above ground biomass than forest diversity. Soil attributes (K and acidity, pH) also significantly affected above ground biomass. Results show how forest structural, taxonomic and environmental attributes affect above ground biomass in African tropical montane forests. They particularly highlight that the use of regional height-diameter models introduces significant biases in above ground biomass estimates, and that different height-diameter models might be preferred for different forest types, and these should be considered in future studies. PMID:28617841

Height-diameter allometry and above ground biomass in tropical montane forests: Insights from the Albertine Rift in Africa.

PubMed

Imani, Gérard; Boyemba, Faustin; Lewis, Simon; Nabahungu, Nsharwasi Léon; Calders, Kim; Zapfack, Louis; Riera, Bernard; Balegamire, Clarisse; Cuni-Sanchez, Aida

2017-01-01

Tropical montane forests provide an important natural laboratory to test ecological theory. While it is well-known that some aspects of forest structure change with altitude, little is known on the effects of altitude on above ground biomass (AGB), particularly with regard to changing height-diameter allometry. To address this we investigate (1) the effects of altitude on height-diameter allometry, (2) how different height-diameter allometric models affect above ground biomass estimates; and (3) how other forest structural, taxonomic and environmental attributes affect above ground biomass using 30 permanent sample plots (1-ha; all trees ≥ 10 cm diameter measured) established between 1250 and 2600 m asl in Kahuzi Biega National Park in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Forest structure and species composition differed with increasing altitude, with four forest types identified. Different height-diameter allometric models performed better with the different forest types, as trees got smaller with increasing altitude. Above ground biomass ranged from 168 to 290 Mg ha-1, but there were no significant differences in AGB between forests types, as tree size decreased but stem density increased with increasing altitude. Forest structure had greater effects on above ground biomass than forest diversity. Soil attributes (K and acidity, pH) also significantly affected above ground biomass. Results show how forest structural, taxonomic and environmental attributes affect above ground biomass in African tropical montane forests. They particularly highlight that the use of regional height-diameter models introduces significant biases in above ground biomass estimates, and that different height-diameter models might be preferred for different forest types, and these should be considered in future studies.

Forest landscape models, a tool for understanding the effect of the large-scale and long-term landscape processes

Treesearch

Hong S. He; Robert E. Keane; Louis R. Iverson

2008-01-01

Forest landscape models have become important tools for understanding large-scale and long-term landscape (spatial) processes such as climate change, fire, windthrow, seed dispersal, insect outbreak, disease propagation, forest harvest, and fuel treatment, because controlled field experiments designed to study the effects of these processes are often not possible (...

Land use change effects on forest carbon cycling throughout the southern United States

Treesearch

Peter B. Woodbury; Linda S. Heath; James E. Smith

2006-01-01

We modeled the effects of afforestation and deforestation on carbon cycling in forest floor and soil from 1900 to 2050 throughout 13 states in the southern United States. The model uses historical data on gross (two-way) transitions between forest, pasture, plowed agriculture, and urban lands along with equations describing changes in carbon over many decades for each...

A Multi-Scale Perspective of the Effects of Forest Fragmentation on Birds in Eastern Forests

Treesearch

Frank R. Thompson; Therese M. Donovan; Richard M. DeGraff; John Faaborg; Scott K. Robinson

2002-01-01

We propose a model that considers forest fragmentation within a spatial hierarchy that includes regional or biogeographic effects, landscape-level fragmentation effects, and local habitat effects. We hypothesize that effects operate "top down" in that larger scale effects provide constraints or context for smaller scale effects. Bird species' abundance...

Calculating the micrometeorological influences on the speed of sound through the atmosphere in forests.

PubMed

Tunick, Arnold

2003-10-01

A key element in determining point-to-point acoustic transmission within and above forests is modeling the variation (with height above ground) of the effective speed of sound. Effective speed of sound is readily derived from estimates of air temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity. However, meteorological models for the forest canopy vary from comparatively simple to academically complex, requiring different amounts and numbers of inputs and computer capabilities. In addition, not all canopy profile models are suitable for acoustic applications. In this paper, a meteorological computer model for the forest canopy is developed to derive continuous profiles of effective sound speed from the ground to 3 h, where h is the height of the canopy. In turn, these profiles are used to make some initial approximations of short-range acoustic transmission loss through a uniform forest stand for typical clear sky, midday atmospheric conditions. Also, a radiative transfer and energy budget algorithm is incorporated into the model to obtain the appropriate heat source profile for any time of day. Thus, physics-based micrometeorology is coupled to acoustics for future applications of acoustic information in forest environments.

Modeling climate change impacts on the forest sector

Treesearch

John R. Mills; Ralph Alig; Richard W. Haynes; Darius M. Adams

2000-01-01

The forest sector has had a relatively long history of applying sectorial models to estimate the effects of atmospheric issues such as acid rain, climate change, and the forestry impacts of reduced atmospheric ozone. The models of the forest sector vary in scope and complexity but share a number of common features and databases.

What Happens in the Burn Zone Doesn't Stay in the Burn Zone: How Markets Distribute Disturbances Across the Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sloggy, M. R.; Plantinga, A.; Latta, G.

2017-12-01

The goal of this study is to examine how the interaction between human systems and land systems influences the extent and severity of forest disturbances. We show that human adaptation to forest disturbance has both long term and short term effects on future timber harvest patterns. We utilize a novel economic model of the forest sector which can be coupled to the Community Land Model (CLM). By simulating both pine beetle outbreaks and wildfires, we are able to model the forest sector's response to these disturbances. We then quantify and report the degree to which natural forest disturbance induces additional disturbances through timber harvest. We find that in the short run, a scarcity of forest products from the affected area increases prices which stimulate harvests in other regions not affected by the disturbance. In the long-run, we find that permanent effects that the natural disturbances have on the forest sector are translated into permanent effects on the pattern of timber harvest. The effects of forest disturbances are not localized, but instead can be distributed across the landscape by their interaction with the human system. Not accounting for this affect could mean a significant underestimation of the forest disturbance attributable to natural disturbance events. Furthermore, our novel economic model can be used with CLM to explore how this feedback may affect other aspects of the environmental system. The results from this study show the importance of accounting for how markets interact with the landscape, and how those results can be used to improve our understanding of both the natural impacts and social impacts of forest disturbance.

Sensitivity of regional forest carbon budgets to continuous and stochastic climate change pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Scheller, R. M.

2010-12-01

Climate change is expected to impact forest-atmosphere carbon budgets through three processes: 1. Increased disturbance rates, including fires, mortality due to pest outbreaks, and severe storms 2. Changes in patterns of inter-annual variability, related to increased incidence of severe droughts and defoliating insect outbreaks 3. Continuous changes in forest productivity and respiration, related to increases in mean temperature, growing season length, and CO2 fertilization While the importance of these climate change effects in future regional carbon budgets has been established, quantitative characterization of the relative sensitivity of forested landscapes to these different types of pressures is needed. We present a model- and- data-based approach to understanding the sensitivity of forested landscapes to climate change pressures. Eddy-covariance and biometric measurements from forests in the northern United States were used to constrain two forest landscape models. The first, LandNEP, uses a prescribed functional form for the evolution of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the age of a forested grid cell, which is reset following a disturbance event. This model was used for investigating the basic statistical properties of a simple landscape’s responses to climate change pressures. The second model, LANDIS-II, includes different tree species and models forest biomass accumulation and succession, allowing us to investigate the effects of more complex forest processes such as species change and carbon pool accumulation on landscape responses to climate change effects. We tested the sensitivity of forested landscapes to these three types of climate change pressures by applying ensemble perturbations of random disturbance rates, distribution functions of inter-annual variability, and maximum potential carbon uptake rates, in the two models. We find that landscape-scale net carbon exchange responds linearly to continuous changes in potential carbon uptake and inter-annual variability, while responses to stochastic changes are non-linear and become more important at shorter mean disturbance intervals. These results provide insight on how to better parameterize coupled carbon-climate models to more realistically simulate feedbacks between forests and the atmosphere.

Effects of climate change and shifts in forest composition on forest net primary production

Treesearch

Jyh-Min Chiang; Louts [Louis] R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim J. Brown

2008-01-01

Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly influenced by climate. However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (...

Influence of forest roads standards and networks on water yield as predicted by the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model

Treesearch

Salli F. Dymond; W. Michael Aust; Steven P. Prisley; Mark H. Eisenbies; James M. Vose

2013-01-01

Throughout the country, foresters are continually looking at the effects of logging and forest roads on stream discharge and overall stream health. In the Pacific Northwest, a distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM) has been used to predict the effects of logging on peak discharge in mountainous regions. DHSVM uses elevation, meteorological, vegetation, and...

Fuel treatment effects on tree-based forest carbon storage and emissions under modeled wildfire scenarios

Treesearch

M. Hurteau; M. North

2009-01-01

Forests are viewed as a potential sink for carbon (C) that might otherwise contribute to climate change. It is unclear, however, how to manage forests with frequent fire regimes to maximize C storage while reducing C emissions from prescribed burns or wildfire. We modeled the effects of eight different fuel treatments on treebased C storage and release over a century,...

Forecasting landscape-scale, cumulative effects of forest management on vegetation and wildlife habitat: a case study of issues, limitations, and opportunities

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Zhaofei F. Fan

2008-01-01

Forest landscape disturbance and succession models have become practical tools for large-scale, long-term analyses of the cumulative effects of forest management on real landscapes. They can provide essential information in a spatial context to address management and policy issues related to forest planning, wildlife habitat quality, timber harvesting, fire effects,...

Induced plant defenses, host–pathogen interactions, and forest insect outbreaks

PubMed Central

Elderd, Bret D.; Rehill, Brian J.; Haynes, Kyle J.; Dwyer, Greg

2013-01-01

Cyclic outbreaks of defoliating insects devastate forests, but their causes are poorly understood. Outbreak cycles are often assumed to be driven by density-dependent mortality due to natural enemies, because pathogens and predators cause high mortality and because natural-enemy models reproduce fluctuations in defoliation data. The role of induced defenses is in contrast often dismissed, because toxic effects of defenses are often weak and because induced-defense models explain defoliation data no better than natural-enemy models. Natural-enemy models, however, fail to explain gypsy moth outbreaks in North America, in which outbreaks in forests with a higher percentage of oaks have alternated between severe and mild, whereas outbreaks in forests with a lower percentage of oaks have been uniformly moderate. Here we show that this pattern can be explained by an interaction between induced defenses and a natural enemy. We experimentally induced hydrolyzable-tannin defenses in red oak, to show that induction reduces variability in a gypsy moth’s risk of baculovirus infection. Because this effect can modulate outbreak severity and because oaks are the only genus of gypsy moth host tree that can be induced, we extended a natural-enemy model to allow for spatial variability in inducibility. Our model shows alternating outbreaks in forests with a high frequency of oaks, and uniform outbreaks in forests with a low frequency of oaks, matching the data. The complexity of this effect suggests that detecting effects of induced defenses on defoliator cycles requires a combination of experiments and models. PMID:23966566

Integrating a process-based ecosystem model with Landsat imagery to assess impacts of forest disturbance on terrestrial carbon dynamics: Case studies in Alabama and Mississippi

DOE PAGES

Chen, Guangsheng; Tian, Hanqin; Huang, Chengquan; ...

2013-07-01

Forest ecosystems in the southern United States are dramatically altered by three major disturbances: timber harvesting, hurricane, and permanent land conversion. Understanding and quantifying effects of disturbance on forest carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles is critical for sustainable forest management in this region. In this study, we introduced a process-based ecosystem model for simulating forest disturbance impacts on ecosystem carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles. Based on forest mortality data classified from Landsat TM/ETM + images, this model was then applied to estimate changes in carbon storage using Mississippi and Alabama as a case study. Mean annual forest mortality rate formore » these states was 2.37%. Due to frequent disturbance, over 50% of the forest land in the study region was less than 30 years old. Forest disturbance events caused a large carbon source (138.92 Tg C, 6.04 Tg C yr -1; 1 Tg = 10 12 g) for both states during 1984–2007, accounting for 2.89% (4.81% if disregard carbon storage changes in wood products) of the total forest carbon storage in this region. Large decreases and slow recovery of forest biomass were the main causes for carbon release. Forest disturbance could result in a carbon sink in few areas if wood product carbon was considered as a local carbon pool, indicating the importance of accounting for wood product carbon when assessing forest disturbance effects. The legacy effects of forest disturbance on ecosystem carbon storage could last over 50 years. Lastly, this study implies that understanding forest disturbance impacts on carbon dynamics is of critical importance for assessing regional carbon budgets.« less

An imperative need for global change research in tropical forests.

PubMed

Zhou, Xuhui; Fu, Yuling; Zhou, Lingyan; Li, Bo; Luo, Yiqi

2013-09-01

Tropical forests play a crucial role in regulating regional and global climate dynamics, and model projections suggest that rapid climate change may result in forest dieback or savannization. However, these predictions are largely based on results from leaf-level studies. How tropical forests respond and feedback to climate change is largely unknown at the ecosystem level. Several complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the effects of climate change on tropical forests, but the results are conflicting, largely due to confounding effects of multiple factors. Although altered precipitation and nitrogen deposition experiments have been conducted in tropical forests, large-scale warming and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) manipulations are completely lacking, leaving many hypotheses and model predictions untested. Ecosystem-scale experiments to manipulate temperature and CO2 concentration individually or in combination are thus urgently needed to examine their main and interactive effects on tropical forests. Such experiments will provide indispensable data and help gain essential knowledge on biogeochemical, hydrological and biophysical responses and feedbacks of tropical forests to climate change. These datasets can also inform regional and global models for predicting future states of tropical forests and climate systems. The success of such large-scale experiments in natural tropical forests will require an international framework to coordinate collaboration so as to meet the challenges in cost, technological infrastructure and scientific endeavor.

Seeing the future impacts of climate change and forest management: a landscape visualization system for forest managers

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Melissa Lucash; Johannes Liem; Helen Jenny; Rob Scheller; Kelly Barrett; Brian R. Sturtevant

2016-01-01

Forest managers are increasingly considering how climate change may alter forests' capacity to provide ecosystem goods and services. But identifying potential climate change effects on forests is difficult because interactions among forest growth and mortality, climate change, management, and disturbances are complex and uncertain. Although forest landscape models...

The effects of forest fragmentation on forest stand attributes

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Greg C. Liknes

2002-01-01

For two study areas in Minnesota, USA, one heavily forested and one sparsely forested, maps of predicted proportion forest area were created using Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, forest inventory plot data, and a logistic regression model. The maps were used to estimate quantitative indices of forest fragmentation. Correlations between the values of the indices and...

The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change

Treesearch

Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

1999-01-01

The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal,...

Effects of LiDAR point density and landscape context on estimates of urban forest biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Kunwar K.; Chen, Gang; McCarter, James B.; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

2015-03-01

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data is being increasingly used as an effective alternative to conventional optical remote sensing to accurately estimate aboveground forest biomass ranging from individual tree to stand levels. Recent advancements in LiDAR technology have resulted in higher point densities and improved data accuracies accompanied by challenges for procuring and processing voluminous LiDAR data for large-area assessments. Reducing point density lowers data acquisition costs and overcomes computational challenges for large-area forest assessments. However, how does lower point density impact the accuracy of biomass estimation in forests containing a great level of anthropogenic disturbance? We evaluate the effects of LiDAR point density on the biomass estimation of remnant forests in the rapidly urbanizing region of Charlotte, North Carolina, USA. We used multiple linear regression to establish a statistical relationship between field-measured biomass and predictor variables derived from LiDAR data with varying densities. We compared the estimation accuracies between a general Urban Forest type and three Forest Type models (evergreen, deciduous, and mixed) and quantified the degree to which landscape context influenced biomass estimation. The explained biomass variance of the Urban Forest model, using adjusted R2, was consistent across the reduced point densities, with the highest difference of 11.5% between the 100% and 1% point densities. The combined estimates of Forest Type biomass models outperformed the Urban Forest models at the representative point densities (100% and 40%). The Urban Forest biomass model with development density of 125 m radius produced the highest adjusted R2 (0.83 and 0.82 at 100% and 40% LiDAR point densities, respectively) and the lowest RMSE values, highlighting a distance impact of development on biomass estimation. Our evaluation suggests that reducing LiDAR point density is a viable solution to regional-scale forest assessment without compromising the accuracy of biomass estimates, and these estimates can be further improved using development density.

Value of eddy-covariance data for individual-based, forest gap models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roedig, Edna; Cuntz, Matthias; Huth, Andreas

2014-05-01

Individual-based forest gap models simulate tree growth and carbon fluxes on large time scales. They are a well established tool to predict forest dynamics and successions. However, the effect of climatic variables on processes of such individual-based models is uncertain (e.g. the effect of temperature or soil moisture on the gross primary production (GPP)). Commonly, functional relationships and parameter values that describe the effect of climate variables on the model processes are gathered from various vegetation models of different spatial scales. Though, their accuracies and parameter values have not been validated for the specific model scales of individual-based forest gap models. In this study, we address this uncertainty by linking Eddy-covariance (EC) data and a forest gap model. The forest gap model FORMIND is applied on the Norwegian spruce monoculture forest at Wetzstein in Thuringia, Germany for the years 2003-2008. The original parameterizations of climatic functions are adapted according to the EC-data. The time step of the model is reduced to one day in order to adapt to the high resolution EC-data. The FORMIND model uses functional relationships on an individual level, whereas the EC-method measures eco-physiological responses at the ecosystem level. However, we assume that in homogeneous stands as in our study, functional relationships for both methods are comparable. The model is then validated at the spruce forest Waldstein, Germany. Results show that the functional relationships used in the model, are similar to those observed with the EC-method. The temperature reduction curve is well reflected in the EC-data, though parameter values differ from the originally expected values. For example at the freezing point, the observed GPP is 30% higher than predicted by the forest gap model. The response of observed GPP to soil moisture shows that the permanent wilting point is 7 vol-% lower than the value derived from the literature. The light response curve, integrated over the canopy and the forest stand, is underestimated compared to the measured data. The EC-method measures a yearly carbon balance of 13 mol(CO2)m-2 for the Wetzstein site. The model with the original parameterization overestimates the yearly carbon balance by nearly 5 mol(CO2)m-2 while the model with an EC-based parameterization fits the measured data very well. The parameter values derived from EC-data are applied on the spruce forest Waldstein and clearly improve estimates of the carbon balance.

Can we set a global threshold age to define mature forests?

PubMed

Martin, Philip; Jung, Martin; Brearley, Francis Q; Ribbons, Relena R; Lines, Emily R; Jacob, Aerin L

2016-01-01

Globally, mature forests appear to be increasing in biomass density (BD). There is disagreement whether these increases are the result of increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations or a legacy effect of previous land-use. Recently, it was suggested that a threshold of 450 years should be used to define mature forests and that many forests increasing in BD may be younger than this. However, the study making these suggestions failed to account for the interactions between forest age and climate. Here we revisit the issue to identify: (1) how climate and forest age control global forest BD and (2) whether we can set a threshold age for mature forests. Using data from previously published studies we modelled the impacts of forest age and climate on BD using linear mixed effects models. We examined the potential biases in the dataset by comparing how representative it was of global mature forests in terms of its distribution, the climate space it occupied, and the ages of the forests used. BD increased with forest age, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Importantly, the effect of forest age increased with increasing temperature, but the effect of precipitation decreased with increasing temperatures. The dataset was biased towards northern hemisphere forests in relatively dry, cold climates. The dataset was also clearly biased towards forests <250 years of age. Our analysis suggests that there is not a single threshold age for forest maturity. Since climate interacts with forest age to determine BD, a threshold age at which they reach equilibrium can only be determined locally. We caution against using BD as the only determinant of forest maturity since this ignores forest biodiversity and tree size structure which may take longer to recover. Future research should address the utility and cost-effectiveness of different methods for determining whether forests should be classified as mature.

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

Evaluating forest land development effects on private forestry in eastern Oregon.

Treesearch

Jeffrey D. Kline; David L. Azuma

2007-01-01

Research suggests that forest land development can reduce the productivity of remaining forest land because private forest owners reduce their investments in forest management. We developed empirical models describing forest stocking, thinning, harvest, and postharvest tree planting in eastern Oregon, as functions of stand and site characteristics, ownership, and...

Landscape-level effects on aboveground biomass of tropical forests: A conceptual framework.

PubMed

Melito, Melina; Metzger, Jean Paul; de Oliveira, Alexandre A

2018-02-01

Despite the general recognition that fragmentation can reduce forest biomass through edge effects, a systematic review of the literature does not reveal a clear role of edges in modulating biomass loss. Additionally, the edge effects appear to be constrained by matrix type, suggesting that landscape composition has an influence on biomass stocks. The lack of empirical evidence of pervasive edge-related biomass losses across tropical forests highlights the necessity for a general framework linking landscape structure with aboveground biomass. Here, we propose a conceptual model in which landscape composition and configuration mediate the magnitude of edge effects and seed-flux among forest patches, which ultimately has an influence on biomass. Our model hypothesizes that a rapid reduction of biomass can occur below a threshold of forest cover loss. Just below this threshold, we predict that changes in landscape configuration can strongly influence the patch's isolation, thus enhancing biomass loss. Moreover, we expect a synergism between landscape composition and patch attributes, where matrix type mediates the effects of edges on species decline, particularly for shade-tolerant species. To test our conceptual framework, we propose a sampling protocol where the effects of edges, forest amount, forest isolation, fragment size, and matrix type on biomass stocks can be assessed both collectively and individually. The proposed model unifies the combined effects of landscape and patch structure on biomass into a single framework, providing a new set of main drivers of biomass loss in human-modified landscapes. We argue that carbon trading agendas (e.g., REDD+) and carbon-conservation initiatives must go beyond the effects of forest loss and edges on biomass, considering the whole set of effects on biomass related to changes in landscape composition and configuration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Novel DEM Approach to Simulate Block Propagation on Forested Slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toe, David; Bourrier, Franck; Dorren, Luuk; Berger, Frédéric

2018-03-01

In order to model rockfall on forested slopes, we developed a trajectory rockfall model based on the discrete element method (DEM). This model is able to take the complex mechanical processes at work during an impact into account (large deformations, complex contact conditions) and can explicitly simulate block/soil, block/tree contacts as well as contacts between neighbouring trees. In this paper, we describe the DEM model developed and we use it to assess the protective effect of different types of forest. In addition, we compared it with a more classical rockfall simulation model. The results highlight that forests can significantly reduce rockfall hazard and that the spatial structure of coppice forests has to be taken into account in rockfall simulations in order to avoid overestimating the protective role of these forest structures against rockfall hazard. In addition, the protective role of the forests is mainly influenced by the basal area. Finally, the advantages and limitations of the DEM model were compared with classical rockfall modelling approaches.

[Effect of agroforestry model on inhibition of Oncomelania snails in plateau mountainous area of Yunnan Province].

PubMed

Zhang, Chun-Hua; Tang, Guo-Yong; Liu, Fang-Yan; Li, Kun

2012-10-01

To evaluate the effect of agroforestry models on the inhibition of Oncomelania snails in the plateau mountainous area of Yunnan Province. The experimental field was established at Sanying Village of Eryuan County, Yunnan Province, where the "Flourishing Forest and Controlling Snails Project" was implemented. Different drought crops (alfalfa, vegetables, broad bean, garlic, lettuce, celery, green onions, and wheat) were intercropped under walnut forest in experimental groups, and the crops were not intercropped under walnut forest in a control group. The growth of forest, the change of snails and short-term income of residents were investigated. Agroforestry models promoted the forestry growth and effectively inhibited the growth of snails. There was a little snail in one of the experimental group that forest was intercropped with alfalfa (the occurrence rate of frames with living snails was 3.33%, the average density of living snails was 0.004/0.1 m2, and the declining rates were both 50.00%). The snails were not found in other intercropped models. The income of residents in the experimental groups increased (900-6 800 Yuan per year) compared with that in the control group. The model of walnut forest intercropped with crops not only has the obvious effect on inhibition of snails, but also has good economic and ecological benefits in the plateau mountainous area of Yunnan Province.

Hydrologic Effects of Global Climate Change on a Large Drained Pine Forest

Treesearch

Devendra M. Amatya; Ge Sun; R. W. Skaggs; G. M Chescheir; J. E. Nettles

2006-01-01

A simulation study using a watershed scale forest hydrology model (DRAINWAT) was conducted to evaluate potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of a 3,000 ha managed pine forest in coastal North Carolina. The model was first validated with a five-year (1996-2000) data set fro111 the study site and then run with 50-years (1951-00) of historic weather data...

Advances of air pollution science: from forest decline to multiple-stress effects on forest ecosystem services.

PubMed

Paoletti, E; Schaub, M; Matyssek, R; Wieser, G; Augustaitis, A; Bastrup-Birk, A M; Bytnerowicz, A; Günthardt-Goerg, M S; Müller-Starck, G; Serengil, Y

2010-06-01

Over the past 20 years, the focus of forest science on air pollution has moved from forest decline to a holistic framework of forest health, and from the effects on forest production to the ecosystem services provided by forest ecosystems. Hence, future research should focus on the interacting factorial impacts and resulting antagonistic and synergistic responses of forest trees and ecosystems. The synergistic effects of air pollution and climatic changes, in particular elevated ozone, altered nitrogen, carbon and water availability, must be key issues for research. Present evidence suggests air pollution will become increasingly harmful to forests under climate change, which requires integration amongst various stressors (abiotic and biotic factors, including competition, parasites and fire), effects on forest services (production, biodiversity protection, soil protection, sustained water balance, socio-economical relevance) and assessment approaches (research, monitoring, modeling) to be fostered. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling complex effects of multiple environmental stresses on carbon dynamics of Mid-Atlantic temperate forests

Treesearch

Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; John Hom; Kevin McCullough

2007-01-01

We used our GIS variant of the PnET-CN model to investigate changes of forest carbon stocks and fluxes in Mid-Atlantic temperate forests over the last century (1900-2000). Forests in this region are affected by multiple environmental changes including climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, N deposition and tropospheric ozone, and extensive land disturbances. Our...

Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

1998-01-01

The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

Bi-criteria evaluation of the MIKE SHE model for a forested watershed on the South Carolina coastal plain

Treesearch

Z. Dai; C. Li; C. Trettin; G. Sun; D. Amatya; H. Li

2010-01-01

Hydrological models are important tools for effective management, conservation and restoration of forested wetlands. The objective of this study was to test a distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, by using bi-criteria (i.e., two measurable variables, streamflow and water table depth) to describe the hydrological processes in a forested watershed that is...

Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

Treesearch

Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Dominik Cullmann

2010-01-01

We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalized linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Wurttemberg...

The effect of using complete and partial forested FIA plot data on biomass and forested area classifications from MODIS satellite data

Treesearch

Dumitru Salajanu; Dennis M. Jacobs

2006-01-01

Authors’ objective was to determine at what level biomass and forest area obtained from partial and complete forested plot inventory data compares with forested area and biomass estimates from the national inventory data. A subset of 3819 inventory plots (100% forested, 100% non-forested, mixed-forest/non-forest) was used to classify the land cover and model the...

Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Ishida, A.; Kadir, W. R.; Ladpala, P.; Yamagata, Y.

2011-09-01

More reliable estimates of the carbon (C) stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT) was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia) and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia) to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems in Southeast Asia, including the impacts of land-use conversion. The observed aboveground biomass in the seasonal dry tropical forest in Thailand (226.3 t C ha-1) and the rainforest in Malaysia (201.5 t C ha-1) indicate that tropical forests of Southeast Asia are among the most C-abundant ecosystems in the world. The model simulation results in rainforests were consistent with field data, except for the NEP, however, the VISIT model tended to underestimate C budget and stock in the seasonal dry tropical forest. The gross primary production (GPP) based on field observations ranged from 32.0 to 39.6 t C ha-1 yr-1 in the two primary forests, whereas the model slightly underestimated GPP (26.5-34.5 t C ha-1 yr-1). The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis showed that the proportion of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after the deforestation event. According to the model simulation, the total C stock (total biomass and soil C) of the oil palm plantation was about 35% of the rainforest's C stock at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation. However, there were few field data of C budget and stock, especially in oil palm plantation. The C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over the long term using both the model simulations and observations to understand the effects of climate and land-use conversion on C budgets in tropical forest ecosystems.

Spatial Interactions in Multiple-Use Forestry and Substitution and Wealth Effects for the Single Stand

Treesearch

Stephen K. Swallow; David N. Wear

1993-01-01

Forestry models often ignore spatial relationships between forest stands. This paper isolates the effects of stand interactions in muitiple-use forestry through a straightforward extension of the single-stand model. Effects of stand interactions decompose into wealth and substitution effects and may cause time-varying patterns of resource use for a forest...

Lower forest density enhances snow retention in regions with warmer winters: A global framework developed from plot-scale observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundquist, Jessica D.; Dickerson-Lange, Susan E.; Lutz, James A.; Cristea, Nicoleta C.

2013-10-01

Many regions of the world are dependent on snow cover for frost protection and summer water supplies. These same regions are predominantly forested, with forests highly vulnerable to change. Here we combine a meta-analysis of observational studies across the globe with modeling to show that in regions with average December-January-February (DJF) temperatures greater than -1°C, forest cover reduces snow duration by 1-2 weeks compared to adjacent open areas. This occurs because the dominant effect of forest cover shifts from slowing snowmelt by shading the snow and blocking the wind to accelerating snowmelt from increasing longwave radiation. In many locations, midwinter melt removes forest snow before solar radiation is great enough for forest shading to matter, and with warming temperatures, midwinter melt is likely to become more widespread. This temperature-effect in forest-snow-climate interactions must be considered in representations of the combined ecohydrological system and can be used advantageously in forest management strategies.

Predicted effects of gypsy moth defoliation and climate change on forest carbon dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens

Treesearch

Alec M. Kretchun; Robert M. Scheller; Melissa S. Lucash; Kenneth L. Clark; John Hom; Steve Van Tuyl; Michael L. Fine

2014-01-01

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to...

Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake.

PubMed

de Wit, Heleen A; Bryn, Anders; Hofgaard, Annika; Karstensen, Jonas; Kvalevåg, Maria M; Peters, Glen P

2014-07-01

Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Inclusion of an ultraviolet radiation transfer component in an urban forest effects model for predicting tree influences on potential below-canopy exposure to UVB radiation

Treesearch

Gordon M. Heisler; Richard H. Grant; David J. Nowak; Wei Gao; Daniel E. Crane; Jeffery T. Walton

2003-01-01

Evaluating the impact of ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB) on urban populations would be enhanced by improved predictions of the UVB radiation at the level of human activity. This paper reports the status of plans for incorporating a UVB prediction module into an existing Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) model. UFORE currently has modules to quantify urban forest structure,...

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

PubMed

Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

2017-06-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

2017-01-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

Coffee Agroforests Remain Beneficial for Neotropical Bird Community Conservation across Seasons

PubMed Central

Peters, Valerie E.; Cooper, Robert J.; Carroll, C. Ron

2013-01-01

Coffee agroforestry systems and secondary forests have been shown to support similar bird communities but comparing these habitat types are challenged by potential biases due to differences in detectability between habitats. Furthermore, seasonal dynamics may influence bird communities differently in different habitat types and therefore seasonal effects should be considered in comparisons. To address these issues, we incorporated seasonal effects and factors potentially affecting bird detectability into models to compare avian community composition and dynamics between coffee agroforests and secondary forest fragments. In particular, we modeled community composition and community dynamics of bird functional groups based on habitat type (coffee agroforest vs. secondary forest) and season while accounting for variation in capture probability (i.e. detectability). The models we used estimated capture probability to be similar between habitat types for each dietary guild, but omnivores had a lower capture probability than frugivores and insectivores. Although apparent species richness was higher in coffee agroforest than secondary forest, model results indicated that omnivores and insectivores were more common in secondary forest when accounting for heterogeneity in capture probability. Our results largely support the notion that shade-coffee can serve as a surrogate habitat for secondary forest with respect to avian communities. Small coffee agroforests embedded within the typical tropical countryside matrix of secondary forest patches and small-scale agriculture, therefore, may host avian communities that resemble those of surrounding secondary forest, and may serve as viable corridors linking patches of forest within these landscapes. This information is an important step toward effective landscape-scale conservation in Neotropical agricultural landscapes. PMID:24058437

The role of stand history in assessing forest impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dale, V.H.; Doyle, T.W.

1987-01-01

Air pollution, harvesting practices, and natural disturbances can affect the growth of trees and forest development. To make predictions about anthropogenic impacts on forests, we need to understand how these factors affect tree growth. In this study the effect of disturbance history on tree growth and stand structure was examined by using a computer model of forest development. The model was run under the climatic conditions of east Tennessee, USA, and the results compared to stand structure and tree growth data from a yellow poplar-white oak forest. Basal area growth and forest biomass were more accurately projected when rough approximations of the thinning and fire history typical of the measured plots were included in the simulation model. Stand history can influence tree growth rates and forest structure and should be included in any attempt to assess forest impacts.

Modelling the impact of the exotic forest pest nectria on the New Zealand forest sector and its major trading partners

Treesearch

James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2007-01-01

The possible impact of Nectria fuckeliana Booth on the forests and forest industries of New Zealand, a significant exporter of industrial roundwood, was estimated for different scenarios of the spread of the fungal pest and trade measure responses in export markets. An economic model was used to assess the direct effect of the pest and the potential...

Carbon budget of Ontario's managed forests and harvested wood products, 2001–2100

Treesearch

Jiaxin Chen; Stephen J. Colombo; Michael T. Ter-Mikaelian; Linda S. Heath

2010-01-01

Forest and harvested wood products (HWP) carbon (C) stocks between 2001 and 2100 for Ontario's managed forests were projected using FORCARB-ON, an adaptation of the U.S. national forest C budget model known as FORCARB2. A fire disturbance module was introduced to FORCARB-ON to simulate the effects of wildfire on C, and some of the model's C pools were re-...

[Measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire: a review].

PubMed

Hu, Hai-Qing; Wei, Shu-Jing; Jin, Sen; Sun, Long

2012-05-01

Forest fire is the main disturbance factor for forest ecosystem, and an important pathway of the decrease of vegetation- and soil carbon storage. Large amount of carbonaceous gases in forest fire can release into atmosphere, giving remarkable impacts on the atmospheric carbon balance and global climate change. To scientifically and effectively measure the carbonaceous gases emission from forest fire is of importance in understanding the significance of forest fire in the carbon balance and climate change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the measurement model of carbon emission from forest fire, which covered three critical issues, i. e., measurement methods of forest fire-induced total carbon emission and carbonaceous gases emission, affecting factors and measurement parameters of measurement model, and cause analysis of the uncertainty in the measurement of the carbon emissions. Three path selections to improve the quantitative measurement of the carbon emissions were proposed, i. e., using high resolution remote sensing data and improving algorithm and estimation accuracy of burned area in combining with effective fuel measurement model to improve the accuracy of the estimated fuel load, using high resolution remote sensing images combined with indoor controlled environment experiments, field measurements, and field ground surveys to determine the combustion efficiency, and combining indoor controlled environment experiments with field air sampling to determine the emission factors and emission ratio.

Forest height estimation from mountain forest areas using general model-based decomposition for polarimetric interferometric synthetic aperture radar images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minh, Nghia Pham; Zou, Bin; Cai, Hongjun; Wang, Chengyi

2014-01-01

The estimation of forest parameters over mountain forest areas using polarimetric interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PolInSAR) images is one of the greatest interests in remote sensing applications. For mountain forest areas, scattering mechanisms are strongly affected by the ground topography variations. Most of the previous studies in modeling microwave backscattering signatures of forest area have been carried out over relatively flat areas. Therefore, a new algorithm for the forest height estimation from mountain forest areas using the general model-based decomposition (GMBD) for PolInSAR image is proposed. This algorithm enables the retrieval of not only the forest parameters, but also the magnitude associated with each mechanism. In addition, general double- and single-bounce scattering models are proposed to fit for the cross-polarization and off-diagonal term by separating their independent orientation angle, which remains unachieved in the previous model-based decompositions. The efficiency of the proposed approach is demonstrated with simulated data from PolSARProSim software and ALOS-PALSAR spaceborne PolInSAR datasets over the Kalimantan areas, Indonesia. Experimental results indicate that forest height could be effectively estimated by GMBD.

Comparing effects of climate warming, fire, and timber harvesting on a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China.

PubMed

Li, Xiaona; He, Hong S; Wu, Zhiwei; Liang, Yu; Schneiderman, Jeffrey E

2013-01-01

Forest management under a changing climate requires assessing the effects of climate warming and disturbance on the composition, age structure, and spatial patterns of tree species. We investigated these effects on a boreal forest in northeastern China using a factorial experimental design and simulation modeling. We used a spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS) to evaluate the effects of three independent variables: climate (current and expected future), fire regime (current and increased fire), and timber harvesting (no harvest and legal harvest). Simulations indicate that this forested landscape would be significantly impacted under a changing climate. Climate warming would significantly increase the abundance of most trees, especially broadleaf species (aspen, poplar, and willow). However, climate warming would have less impact on the abundance of conifers, diversity of forest age structure, and variation in spatial landscape structure than burning and harvesting. Burning was the predominant influence in the abundance of conifers except larch and the abundance of trees in mid-stage. Harvesting impacts were greatest for the abundance of larch and birch, and the abundance of trees during establishment stage (1-40 years), early stage (41-80 years) and old- growth stage (>180 years). Disturbance by timber harvesting and burning may significantly alter forest ecosystem dynamics by increasing forest fragmentation and decreasing forest diversity. Results from the simulations provide insight into the long term management of this boreal forest.

The effects of the canopy created velocity inflection in the wake development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agafonova, O.; Avramenko, A.; Chaudhari, A.; Hellsten, A.

2016-06-01

The aim of this paper is to study the effects of forest on the turbine wakes. Initially, the ACL (actuator line) model as well as a Canopy model are validated with the experiments separately. The models are further applied to simulate the flow over two wind turbines in a row located within the forest.

Modeling the cumulative watershed effects of forest management strategies

Treesearch

R. R. Ziemer; J. Lewis; R. M. Rice; T. E. Lisle

1991-01-01

Abstract - There is increasing concern over the possibility of adverse cumulative watershed effects from intensive forest management. It is impractical to address many aspects of the problem experimentally because to do so would require studying large watersheds for 100 yr or more. One such aspect is the long-term effect of forest management strategies on erosion and...

Detecting the effects of forest harvesting on streamflow using hydrologic model change detection

Treesearch

Nicolas P. Zegre; Nicholas A. Som

2011-01-01

Knowledge of the effects of forest management on hydrology primarily comes from paired-catchment study experiments. This approach has contributed fundamental knowledge of the effects of forest management on hydrology, but results from these studies lack insight into catchment processes. Outlined in this study is an alternative method of change detection that uses a...

Tropical forest harvesting and taxation: a dynamic model of harvesting behavior under selective extraction systems

Treesearch

Robert F. Conrad; Malcolm Gillis; D. Evan Mercer

2005-01-01

A dynamic model of selective harvesting in multi-species,multi-age tropical forests is developed. Forests are predicted to exhibit different optimal harvesting profiles depending on the nature of their joint cost functions and own or cross-species stock effects. The model is applied to the controversy about incentives produced by various taxes. The impacts of specific...

iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2011-01-01

This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

PubMed

Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the process of analyzing the environmental effects of alternative actions.

Strategic management of five deciduous forest invaders using Microstegium vimineum as a model species

Treesearch

Cynthia D. Huebner

2007-01-01

This paper links key plant invasive traits with key landscape traits to define strategic management for five common forest invaders, using empirical data of Microstegium vimineum dispersal into forests as a preliminary model. Microstegium vimineum exhibits an Allee effect that may allow management to focus on treating its source...

UFORE (i-Tree Eco) Analysis of Chicago

Treesearch

Cherie LeBlanc Fisher; David Nowak

2010-01-01

The USDA Forest Service and City of Chicago conducted a UFORE (now called i-Tree Eco) analysis of Chicago's urban forest in the summer of 2007. The UFORE (Urban FORest Effects) model developed by the Forest Service uses on-the-ground sampling data to understand the composition of on urban forest and calculate the forest's impacts on air pollution and energy...

Assessing the Effects of Forest Fragmentation Using Satellite Imagery and Forest Inventory Data

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Greg C. Liknes

2005-01-01

For a study area in the North Central region of the USA, maps of predicted proportion forest area were created using Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, forest inventory plot data, and a logistic regression model. The maps were used to estimate quantitative indices of forest fragmentation. Correlations between the values of the indices and forest attributes observed on...

The influence of canopy shading of snow on effective albedo in forested environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, C.; Jonas, T.

2017-12-01

The overlap of highly reflective snow and absorbent forested areas creates strong heterogeneity in the effective surface albedo compared to forest-free areas. Current errors in calculations of effective forest snow albedo arise due to uncertainties in how models should treat masking of snow by vegetation but improvement of local and large scale models is currently limited by a lack of measurements that demonstrate both spatial and temporal variability over forests. We present above-canopy measurements of winter-time effective forest snow albedo using up- and down-looking radiometers mounted on an octocopter UAV for a total of fifteen flights on eight different days. Ground-view fractions across the flight path were between 0.12 and 0.81. Correlations between effective albedo and both ground-view fraction and canopy height were statistically significant during 14 out of 15 flights, but varied between flights due to solar angle and snow cover. Measured effective albedo across the flight path differed by up to 0.33 during snow-on canopy conditions. A comparison between maximum interception and no interception showed effective albedo varied by up 0.17, which was the same variation between effective albedo during high (46°) and low (23°) solar elevation angles. Temporal and spatial variations in effective albedo caused by canopy shading of the snow surface are therefore as important as temporal variations caused by interception of snow by the canopy. Calculation of effective albedo over forested areas therefore requires careful consideration of canopy height, canopy coverage, solar angle and interception load. The results of this study should be used to inform snow albedo and canopy structure parametrisations in local and larger scale land surface models.

Do rising temperatures always increase forest productivity? Interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, cloudiness and soil texture on tree species growth and competition

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Miranda; Arjan M.G. De Bruijn; Brian R. Sturtevant; Mark E. Kubiske

2017-01-01

Forest landscape models (FLM) are increasingly used to project the effects of climate change on forested landscapes, yet most use phenomenological approaches with untested assumptions about future forest dynamics. We used a FLM that relies on first principles to mechanistically simulate growth (LANDIS-II with PnET-Succession) to systematically explore how landscapes...

Economic modeling of effects of climate change on the forest sector and mitigation options: a compendium of briefing papers

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig

2010-01-01

This report is a compilation of six briefing papers based on literature reviews and syntheses, prepared for U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service policy analysts and decisionmakers about specific questions pertaining to climate change. The main topics addressed here are economic effects on the forest sector at the national and global scales, costs of forest...

Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laurance, William F.

2004-01-01

This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

Coupling a distributed hydrological model with detailed forest structural information for large-scale global change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisner, Stephanie; Huang, Shaochun; Majasalmi, Titta; Bright, Ryan; Astrup, Rasmus; Beldring, Stein

2017-04-01

Forests are recognized for their decisive effect on landscape water balance with structural forest characteristics as stand density or species composition determining energy partitioning and dominant flow paths. However, spatial and temporal variability in forest structure is often poorly represented in hydrological modeling frameworks, in particular in regional to large scale hydrological modeling and impact analysis. As a common practice, prescribed land cover classes (including different generic forest types) are linked to parameter values derived from literature, or parameters are determined by calibration. While national forest inventory (NFI) data provide comprehensive, detailed information on hydrologically relevant forest characteristics, their potential to inform hydrological simulation over larger spatial domains is rarely exploited. In this study we present a modeling framework that couples the distributed hydrological model HBV with forest structural information derived from the Norwegian NFI and multi-source remote sensing data. The modeling framework, set up for the entire of continental Norway at 1 km spatial resolution, is explicitly designed to study the combined and isolated impacts of climate change, forest management and land use change on hydrological fluxes. We use a forest classification system based on forest structure rather than biomes which allows to implicitly account for impacts of forest management on forest structural attributes. In the hydrological model, different forest classes are represented by three parameters: leaf area index (LAI), mean tree height and surface albedo. Seasonal cycles of LAI and surface albedo are dynamically simulated to make the framework applicable under climate change conditions. Based on a hindcast for the pilot regions Nord-Trøndelag and Sør-Trøndelag, we show how forest management has affected regional hydrological fluxes during the second half of the 20th century as contrasted to climate variability.

Modeling potential hydrochemical responses to climate change and rising CO2 at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest using a dynamic biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC)

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe

2012-01-01

Dynamic hydrochemical models are useful tools for understanding and predicting the interactive effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2, and atmospheric deposition on the hydrology and water quality of forested watersheds. We used the biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to evaluate the effects of potential future changes in temperature,...

Adapting an IPCC-Compliant Full Forest Carbon Accounting Model to Determine the Effects of Different Forest Management Strategies in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starrs, C.; Stewart, W.; Potts, M. D.

2016-12-01

As California experiences increasing rates of disturbance events such as wildfire, drought, and insect outbreaks, understanding how different management strategies affect long-term forest carbon stock changes in the forest and in harvested wood products used by society will be key to determining strategies to best maximize forest-related carbon sequestration in the future. California's forest area is roughly evenly split across three ownership types: private timberlands, National Forest timberlands, and reserved forests. Forest management strategies in California generally vary by these ownerships; management in reserved lands sequesters carbon within the forest (i.e. leaves wood in the forest), while on private and National Forest timberlands a significant amount of wood is removed from the forest and converted to harvested wood products. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is an IPCC-compliant full forest carbon accounting model developed for use in Canada that has been adapted for use in other countries. Changes in natural disturbances in the forest and technological innovation in the use of harvested wood products could substantially alter future carbon trajectories of forests under different management regimes. A key advantage of the CBM-CFS3 model is that in addition to tracking live tree, dead tree, and dead organic matter (DOM) carbon pools in the forest, it also tracks carbon stock changes in harvested wood products. We calibrated the CBM-CFS3 model with US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for seven forest types across three ownership types to predict carbon stock changes under different natural disturbance and harvested wood product utilization futures. Our results illustrate the importance of using a tractable model that can integrate future changes in forest carbon cycling to keep pace with our changing climate and usage of wood products.

Research agenda for integrated landscape modeling

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Donald McKenzie; David L. Peterson; Jeremy Littell; Kevin S. McKelvey

2006-01-01

Reliable predictions of the effects changing climate and disturbance regimes will have on forest ecosystems are crucial for effective forest management. Current fire and climate research in forest ecosystem and community ecology offers data and methods that can inform such predictions. However, research in these fields occurs at different scales, with disparate goals,...

Improving Lidar-based Aboveground Biomass Estimation with Site Productivity for Central Hardwood Forests, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, G.; Gallion, J.; Fei, S.

2016-12-01

Sound forest aboveground biomass estimation is required to monitor diverse forest ecosystems and their impacts on the changing climate. Lidar-based regression models provided promised biomass estimations in most forest ecosystems. However, considerable uncertainties of biomass estimations have been reported in the temperate hardwood and hardwood-dominated mixed forests. Varied site productivities in temperate hardwood forests largely diversified height and diameter growth rates, which significantly reduced the correlation between tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH) in mature and complex forests. It is, therefore, difficult to utilize height-based lidar metrics to predict DBH-based field-measured biomass through a simple regression model regardless the variation of site productivity. In this study, we established a multi-dimension nonlinear regression model incorporating lidar metrics and site productivity classes derived from soil features. In the regression model, lidar metrics provided horizontal and vertical structural information and productivity classes differentiated good and poor forest sites. The selection and combination of lidar metrics were discussed. Multiple regression models were employed and compared. Uncertainty analysis was applied to the best fit model. The effects of site productivity on the lidar-based biomass model were addressed.

Evaluating land-use and private forest management responses to a potential forest carbon offset sales program in western Oregon (USA)

Treesearch

Gregory S. Latta; Darius M. Adams; Kathleen P. Bell; Jeff Kline

2016-01-01

We describe the use of linked land-use and forest sector models to simulate the effects of carbon offset sales on private forest owners' land-use and forest management decisions inwestern Oregon (USA). Our work focuses on forest management decisions rather than afforestation, allows full forest sector price adjustment to land-use changes, and incorporates time-...

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

2017-03-28

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Piecing together the fragments: Elucidating edge effects on forest carbon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutyra, L.; Smith, I. A.; Reinmann, A.; Marrs, J.; Thompson, J.

2017-12-01

Forest fragmentation is pervasive throughout the world's forests, impacting growing conditions and carbon dynamics through edge effects that produce gradients in microclimate, biogeochemistry, and stand structure. Despite the majority of the world's forests being <1km from an edge, our understanding of forest carbon dynamics is largely derived from intact forest systems. In the northeastern USA, we find that over 23% of the current forest area is just 30m from an agricultural or developed edge. Edge effects on the carbon cycle vary in their magnitude by biome, but current forest carbon accounting methods and ecosystem models largely do not include edge effects, highlighting an important gap in our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Characterizing the role of forest fragmentation in regional and global biogeochemical cycles necessitates advancing our understanding of how shifts in microenvironment at the forest edge interact with local prevailing drivers of global change and limitations to microbial activity and forest growth. This study synthesizes the literature related to edge effects and the carbon cycle, considering how fragmentation affects the growing conditions of the world's remaining forests based on risks and opportunities for forests near the edge.

Effects of harvest on carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a Pacific Northwest forest catchment

EPA Science Inventory

We used a new ecohydrological model, Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments (VELMA), to analyze the effects of forest harvest on catchment carbon and nitrogen dynamics. We applied the model to a 10 ha headwater catchment in the western Oregon Cascade Range where t...

A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

2012-12-01

For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This model applications to the prediction and analysis of climate scenarios impacts on southwestern European forests underlines the role of management alternatives, precipitation regime, CO2 concentration and atmospheric humidity .Frequency of soil preparation operations and understorey management play a major role in controlling the net carbon flux into the atmosphere at the juvenile stage ( 0 to 10 y-old) whereas climate and rotation duration control the functioning of adult phase. The model predicts that a drier and warmer climate will reduce the forest productivity and deplete soil and carbon stocks in managed forest from Southwestern Europe within decades, such effects being amplified for most intensive management alternatives. This work was part of the European research project GHG-Europe (EU contract No. 244122) and the French national project FAST co-funded by the Ecology, Agriculture and Forestry Ministries and the Region Aquitaine.

PREDICTING THE REGIONAL IMPACT OF OZONE AND PRECIPITATION ON THE GROWTH OF LOBLOLLY PINE AND YELLOW-POPLAR USING LINKED TREGRO AND ZELIG MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

To simulate the long-term effects of ozone on forests in the US, we linked TREGRO, a mechanistic model of an individual tree, to ZELIG, a forest stand model, to examine the response of forests to 5 ozone exposure regimes (0 to 100 ppm-hr SUM06 per year) in 100 year simulations. ...

Random forests as cumulative effects models: A case study of lakes and rivers in Muskoka, Canada.

PubMed

Jones, F Chris; Plewes, Rachel; Murison, Lorna; MacDougall, Mark J; Sinclair, Sarah; Davies, Christie; Bailey, John L; Richardson, Murray; Gunn, John

2017-10-01

Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) - a type of environmental appraisal - lacks effective methods for modeling cumulative effects, evaluating indicators of ecosystem condition, and exploring the likely outcomes of development scenarios. Random forests are an extension of classification and regression trees, which model response variables by recursive partitioning. Random forests were used to model a series of candidate ecological indicators that described lakes and rivers from a case study watershed (The Muskoka River Watershed, Canada). Suitability of the candidate indicators for use in cumulative effects assessment and watershed monitoring was assessed according to how well they could be predicted from natural habitat features and how sensitive they were to human land-use. The best models explained 75% of the variation in a multivariate descriptor of lake benthic-macroinvertebrate community structure, and 76% of the variation in the conductivity of river water. Similar results were obtained by cross-validation. Several candidate indicators detected a simulated doubling of urban land-use in their catchments, and a few were able to detect a simulated doubling of agricultural land-use. The paper demonstrates that random forests can be used to describe the combined and singular effects of multiple stressors and natural environmental factors, and furthermore, that random forests can be used to evaluate the performance of monitoring indicators. The numerical methods presented are applicable to any ecosystem and indicator type, and therefore represent a step forward for CEA. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interactions of elevation, aspect, and slope in models of forest species composition and productivity

Treesearch

Albert R. Stage; Christian Salas

2007-01-01

We present a linear model for the interacting effects of elevation, aspect, and slope for use in predicting forest productivity or species composition. The model formulation we propose integrates interactions of these three factors in a mathematical expression representing their combined effect in terms of a cosine function of aspect with a phase shift and amplitude...

Effects of parcelization and land divestiture on forest sustainability in simulated forest landscapes

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Craig Loehle

2006-01-01

Ownership parcelization of forest land and divestiture of industrial forest land is increasing throughout the U.S. This may affect (positively or negatively) the ability of forested landscapes to produce benefits that society values, such as fiber, biodiversity and recreation. We used a timber harvest simulator and neutral model landscapes to systematically study how...

Quantifying scaling effects on satellite-derived forest area estimates for the conterminous USA

Treesearch

Daolan Zheng; L.S. Heath; M.J. Ducey; J.E. Smith

2009-01-01

We quantified the scaling effects on forest area estimates for the conterminous USA using regression analysis and the National Land Cover Dataset 30m satellite-derived maps in 2001 and 1992. The original data were aggregated to: (1) broad cover types (forest vs. non-forest); and (2) coarser resolutions (1km and 10 km). Standard errors of the model estimates were 2.3%...

Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

Treesearch

Jaymi J. LeBrun; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser; Hong S. He; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2016-01-01

Context. Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climateinduced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change. Objectives. We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian...

[Estimation of forest canopy chlorophyll content based on PROSPECT and SAIL models].

PubMed

Yang, Xi-guang; Fan, Wen-yi; Yu, Ying

2010-11-01

The forest canopy chlorophyll content directly reflects the health and stress of forest. The accurate estimation of the forest canopy chlorophyll content is a significant foundation for researching forest ecosystem cycle models. In the present paper, the inversion of the forest canopy chlorophyll content was based on PROSPECT and SAIL models from the physical mechanism angle. First, leaf spectrum and canopy spectrum were simulated by PROSPECT and SAIL models respectively. And leaf chlorophyll content look-up-table was established for leaf chlorophyll content retrieval. Then leaf chlorophyll content was converted into canopy chlorophyll content by Leaf Area Index (LAD). Finally, canopy chlorophyll content was estimated from Hyperion image. The results indicated that the main effect bands of chlorophyll content were 400-900 nm, the simulation of leaf and canopy spectrum by PROSPECT and SAIL models fit better with the measured spectrum with 7.06% and 16.49% relative error respectively, the RMSE of LAI inversion was 0. 542 6 and the forest canopy chlorophyll content was estimated better by PROSPECT and SAIL models with precision = 77.02%.

Cost-effective age structure and geographical distribution of boreal forest reserves.

PubMed

Lundström, Johanna; Ohman, Karin; Perhans, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena; Bugman, Harald

2011-02-01

1. Forest reserves are established to preserve biodiversity, and to maintain natural functions and processes. Today there is heightened focus on old-growth stages, with less attention given to early successional stages. The biodiversity potential of younger forests has been overlooked, and the cost-effectiveness of incorporating different age classes in reserve networks has not yet been studied.2. We performed a reserve selection analysis in boreal Sweden using the Swedish National Forest Inventory plots. Seventeen structural variables were used as biodiversity indicators, and the cost of protecting each plot as a reserve was assessed using the Heureka system. A goal programming approach was applied, which allowed inclusion of several objectives and avoided a situation in which common indicators affected the result more than rare ones. The model was limited either by budget or area.3. All biodiversity indicators were found in all age classes, with more than half having the highest values in ages ≥ 100 years. Several large-tree indicators and all deadwood indicators had higher values in forests 0-14 years than in forests 15-69 years.4. It was most cost-effective to protect a large proportion of young forests since they generally have a lower net present value compared to older forests, but still contain structures of importance for biodiversity. However, it was more area-effective to protect a large proportion of old forests since they have a higher biodiversity potential per area.5. The geographical distribution of reserves selected with the budget-constrained model was strongly biassed towards the north-western section of boreal Sweden, with a large proportion of young forest, whereas the area-constrained model focussed on the south-eastern section, with dominance by the oldest age class.6.Synthesis and applications. We show that young forests with large amounts of structures important to biodiversity such as dead wood and remnant trees are cheap and cost-efficient to protect. This suggests that reserve networks should incorporate sites with high habitat quality of different forest ages. Since young forests are generally neglected in conservation, our approach is of interest also to other forest biomes where biodiversity is adapted to disturbance regimes resulting in open, early successional stages.

Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.

This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the fivemore » ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.« less

Modeling forest development after fire disturbance: Climate, soil organic layer, and nitrogen jointly affect forest canopy species and long-term ecosystem carbon accumulation in the North American boreal forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, A. T.; Fenton, N.; Bergeron, Y.; Xu, X.; Welp, L.; Medvigy, D.

2015-12-01

Soil organic layer dynamics strongly affect boreal forest development after fire. Field studies show that soil organic layer thickness exerts a species-specific control on propagule establishment in the North American boreal forest. On organic soils thicker than a few centimeters, all propagules are less able to recruit, but broadleaf trees recruit less effectively than needleleaf trees. In turn, forest growth controls organic layer accumulation through modulating litter input and litter quality. These dynamics have not been fully incorporated into models, but may be essential for accurate projections of ecosystem carbon storage. Here, we develop a data-constrained model for understanding boreal forest development after fire. We update the ED2 model to include new aspen and black spruce species-types, species-specific propagule survivorship dependent on soil organic layer depth, species-specific litter decay rates, dynamically accumulating moss and soil organic layers, and nitrogen fixation by cyanobacteria associated with moss. The model is validated against diverse observations ranging from monthly to centennial timescales and spanning a climate gradient in Alaska, central Canada, and Quebec. We then quantify differences in forest development that result from changes in organic layer accumulation, temperature, and nitrogen. We find that (1) the model accurately reproduces a range of observations throughout the North American boreal forest; (2) the presence of a thick organic layer results in decreased decomposition and decreased aboveground productivity, effects that can increase or decrease ecosystem carbon uptake depending on location-specific attributes; (3) with a mean warming of 4°C, some forests switch from undergoing succession to needleleaf forests to recruiting multiple cohorts of broadleaf trees, decreasing ecosystem accumulation by ~30% after 300 years; (4) the availability of nitrogen regulates successional dynamics such than broadleaf species are less able to compete with needleleaf trees under low nitrogen regimes. We conclude that a joint regulation between the soil organic layer, temperature, and nitrogen will likely play an important role in influencing boreal forests development after fire in future climates, and should be represented in models.

Optical characterization of carbon nanotube forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Brian D.

Carbon nanotube forests are vertically grown tubular formations of graphene. Samples were grown with an injection chemical vapor deposition method on substrates of silicon with various deposited layers and bare fused silica. The morphology of the forest is characterized by the height, density, and presence of defects. Total diffuse reflectance and transmittance measurements were taken in the 2-16 ?m spectral range and correlated to the forest's specific morphology. From these correlations, the conditions necessary to maximize the absorption of the forest were found and exploited to cater sample growth for specific substrates to make ideal absorbers. From the transmittance data, the absorption coefficient is found via Beer-Lambert's Law and also correlated to sample morphology, giving us an indication of the height of the forest needed for ideal absorption. Two models were used to attempt to reproduce the experimental absorption coefficient: an effective medium theory using a Maxwell Garnett approximation and by treating the carbon nanotube forest as an effective cylindrical waveguide with walls of graphite. Each model leads to a set of fitting parameters providing a better physical understanding of the forests. It was found that the effective medium theory gave results loosely corroborated with electron microscopy, but had trouble fitting the experimental data, and the index of refraction it provides does not behave like a unified medium. The waveguide model fits the data well, but it requires more experimental evidence to be more conclusive. The theoretical models need more work, but fabrication of ideal absorbers has been achieved on various substrates providing framework for their usage in radiometry and spectroscopy.

Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Douglas J. Shinneman

2015-01-01

Global changes, including climate change, are rapidly creating new environmental conditions and stressors for forests around the world. Climate change may have modest direct effects, at least initially, but indirect effects and interactions with disturbances can produce important changes in forest composition and landscape pattern (Dale et al. 2001; Gustafson et al....

Demonstrating the Uneven Importance of Fine-Scale Forest Structure on Snow Distributions using High Resolution Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broxton, P. D.; Harpold, A. A.; van Leeuwen, W.; Biederman, J. A.

2016-12-01

Quantifying the amount of snow in forested mountainous environments, as well as how it may change due to warming and forest disturbance, is critical given its importance for water supply and ecosystem health. Forest canopies affect snow accumulation and ablation in ways that are difficult to observe and model. Furthermore, fine-scale forest structure can accentuate or diminish the effects of forest-snow interactions. Despite decades of research demonstrating the importance of fine-scale forest structure (e.g. canopy edges and gaps) on snow, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of where and when forest structure has the largest impact on snowpack mass and energy budgets. Here, we use a hyper-resolution (1 meter spatial resolution) mass and energy balance snow model called the Snow Physics and Laser Mapping (SnowPALM) model along with LIDAR-derived forest structure to determine where spatial variability of fine-scale forest structure has the largest influence on large scale mass and energy budgets. SnowPALM was set up and calibrated at sites representing diverse climates in New Mexico, Arizona, and California. Then, we compared simulations at different model resolutions (i.e. 1, 10, and 100 m) to elucidate the effects of including versus not including information about fine scale canopy structure. These experiments were repeated for different prescribed topographies (i.e. flat, 30% slope north, and south-facing) at each site. Higher resolution simulations had more snow at lower canopy cover, with the opposite being true at high canopy cover. Furthermore, there is considerable scatter, indicating that different canopy arrangements can lead to different amounts of snow, even when the overall canopy coverage is the same. This modeling is contributing to the development of a high resolution machine learning algorithm called the Snow Water Artificial Network (SWANN) model to generate predictions of snow distributions over much larger domains, which has implications for improving land surface models that do not currently resolve or parameterize fine-scale canopy structure. In addition, these findings have implications for understanding the potential of different forest management strategies (i.e. thinning) based on local topography and climate to maximize the amount and retention of snow.

Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

Treesearch

Rosalie J. Ingram

1989-01-01

Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

Comparing Effects of Climate Warming, Fire, and Timber Harvesting on a Boreal Forest Landscape in Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaona; He, Hong S.; Wu, Zhiwei; Liang, Yu; Schneiderman, Jeffrey E.

2013-01-01

Forest management under a changing climate requires assessing the effects of climate warming and disturbance on the composition, age structure, and spatial patterns of tree species. We investigated these effects on a boreal forest in northeastern China using a factorial experimental design and simulation modeling. We used a spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS) to evaluate the effects of three independent variables: climate (current and expected future), fire regime (current and increased fire), and timber harvesting (no harvest and legal harvest). Simulations indicate that this forested landscape would be significantly impacted under a changing climate. Climate warming would significantly increase the abundance of most trees, especially broadleaf species (aspen, poplar, and willow). However, climate warming would have less impact on the abundance of conifers, diversity of forest age structure, and variation in spatial landscape structure than burning and harvesting. Burning was the predominant influence in the abundance of conifers except larch and the abundance of trees in mid-stage. Harvesting impacts were greatest for the abundance of larch and birch, and the abundance of trees during establishment stage (1–40 years), early stage (41–80 years) and old- growth stage (>180 years). Disturbance by timber harvesting and burning may significantly alter forest ecosystem dynamics by increasing forest fragmentation and decreasing forest diversity. Results from the simulations provide insight into the long term management of this boreal forest. PMID:23573209

SAR backscatter from coniferous forest gaps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Day, John L.; Davis, Frank W.

1992-01-01

A study is in progress comparing Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) backscatter from coniferous forest plots containing gaps to backscatter from adjacent gap-free plots. Issues discussed are how do gaps in the range of 400 to 1600 sq m (approximately 4-14 pixels at intermediate incidence angles) affect forest backscatter statistics and what incidence angles, wavelengths, and polarizations are most sensitive to forest gaps. In order to visualize the slant-range imaging of forest and gaps, a simple conceptual model is used. This strictly qualitative model has led us to hypothesize that forest radar returns at short wavelengths (eg., C-band) and large incidence angles (e.g., 50 deg) should be most affected by the presence of gaps, whereas returns at long wavelengths and small angles should be least affected. Preliminary analysis of 1989 AIRSAR data from forest near Mt. Shasta supports the hypothesis. Current forest backscatter models such as MIMICS and Santa Barbara Discontinuous Canopy Backscatter Model have in several cases correctly predicted backscatter from forest stands based on inputs of measured or estimated forest parameters. These models do not, however, predict within-stand SAR scene texture, or 'intrinsic scene variability' as Ulaby et al. has referred to it. For instance, the Santa Barbara model, which may be the most spatially coupled of the existing models, is not truly spatial. Tree locations within a simulated pixel are distributed according to a Poisson process, as they are in many natural forests, but tree size is unrelated to location, which is not the case in nature. Furthermore, since pixels of a simulated stand are generated independently in the Santa Barbara model, spatial processes larger than one pixel are not modeled. Using a different approach, Oliver modeled scene texture based on an hypothetical forest geometry. His simulated scenes do not agree well with SAR data, perhaps due to the simple geometric model used. Insofar as texture is the expression of biological forest processes, such as succession and disease, and physical ones, such as fire and wind-throw, it contains useful information about the forest, and has value in image interpretation and classification. Forest gaps are undoubtedly important contributors to scene variance. By studying the localized effects of gaps on forest backscatter, guided by our qualitative model, we hope to understand more clearly the manner in which spatial heterogeneities in forests produce variations in backscatter, which collectively give rise to scene texture.

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2015-01-01

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Investigating the effects of forest structure on the small mammal community in frequent-fire coniferous forests using capture-recapture models for stratified populations

Treesearch

Rahel Sollmann; Angela M. White; Beth Gardner; Patricia N. Manley

2015-01-01

Small mammals comprise an important component of forest vertebrate communities. Our understanding of how small mammals use forested habitat has relied heavily on studies in forest systems not naturally prone to frequent disturbances. Small mammal populations that evolved in frequent-fire forests, however, may be less restricted to specific habitat conditions due to the...

Species richness and soil properties in Pinus ponderosa forests: A structural equation modeling analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laughlin, D.C.; Abella, S.R.; Covington, W.W.; Grace, J.B.

2007-01-01

Question: How are the effects of mineral soil properties on understory plant species richness propagated through a network of processes involving the forest overstory, soil organic matter, soil nitrogen, and understory plant abundance? Location: North-central Arizona, USA. Methods: We sampled 75 0.05-ha plots across a broad soil gradient in a Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine) forest ecosystem. We evaluated multivariate models of plant species richness using structural equation modeling. Results: Richness was highest at intermediate levels of understory plant cover, suggesting that both colonization success and competitive exclusion can limit richness in this system. We did not detect a reciprocal positive effect of richness on plant cover. Richness was strongly related to soil nitrogen in the model, with evidence for both a direct negative effect and an indirect non-linear relationship mediated through understory plant cover. Soil organic matter appeared to have a positive influence on understory richness that was independent of soil nitrogen. Richness was lowest where the forest overstory was densest, which can be explained through indirect effects on soil organic matter, soil nitrogen and understory cover. Finally, model results suggest a variety of direct and indirect processes whereby mineral soil properties can influence richness. Conclusions: Understory plant species richness and plant cover in P. ponderosa forests appear to be significantly influenced by soil organic matter and nitrogen, which are, in turn, related to overstory density and composition and mineral soil properties. Thus, soil properties can impose direct and indirect constraints on local species diversity in ponderosa pine forests. ?? IAVS; Opulus Press.

Effects of partial harvest on the carbon stores in Douglas-fir/western hemlock forests: a simulation study

Treesearch

Mark E. Harmon; Adam Moreno; James B. Domingo

2009-01-01

The STANDCARB 2.0 model was used to examine the effects of partial harvest of trees within stands on forest-related carbon (C) stores in a typical Pacific Northwest Pseudotsuga/Tsuga forest. For harvest rotation intervals of 20 to 250 years the effect of completely dispersed (that is, a checkerboard) versus completely aggregated cutting patterns (...

Edge effects on moisture reduce wood decomposition rate in a temperate forest.

PubMed

Crockatt, Martha E; Bebber, Daniel P

2015-02-01

Forests around the world are increasingly fragmented, and edge effects on forest microclimates have the potential to affect ecosystem functions such as carbon and nutrient cycling. Edges tend to be drier and warmer due to the effects of insolation, wind, and evapotranspiration and these gradients can penetrate hundreds of metres into the forest. Litter decomposition is a key component of the carbon cycle, which is largely controlled by saprotrophic fungi that respond to variation in temperature and moisture. However, the impact of forest fragmentation on litter decay is poorly understood. Here, we investigate edge effects on the decay of wood in a temperate forest using an experimental approach, whereby mass loss in wood blocks placed along 100 m transects from the forest edge to core was monitored over 2 years. Decomposition rate increased with distance from the edge, and was correlated with increasing humidity and moisture content of the decaying wood, such that the decay constant at 100 m was nearly twice that at the edge. Mean air temperature decreased slightly with distance from the edge. The variation in decay constant due to edge effects was larger than that expected from any reasonable estimates of climatic variation, based on a published regional model. We modelled the influence of edge effects on the decay constant at the landscape scale using functions for forest area within different distances from edge across the UK. We found that taking edge effects into account would decrease the decay rate by nearly one quarter, compared with estimates that assumed no edge effect. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Forest Disturbances on Forest Structural Parameters Retrieval from Lidar Waveform Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranson, K, Lon; Sun, G.

2011-01-01

The effect of forest disturbance on the lidar waveform and the forest biomass estimation was demonstrated by model simulation. The results show that the correlation between stand biomass and the lidar waveform indices changes when the stand spatial structure changes due to disturbances rather than the natural succession. This has to be considered in developing algorithms for regional or global mapping of biomass from lidar waveform data.

Carbon dynamics in the future forest: the importance of long-term successional legacy and climate–fire interactions

Treesearch

Louise Loudermilk; Robert Scheller; Peter Weisberg; Jian Yang; Thomas Dilts; Sarah Karam; Carl Skinner

2013-01-01

Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long-term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, such as wildfires and timber harvesting events. We used a landscape-scale model of forest succession, wildfire, and C dynamics (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the effects...

A model for managing edge effects in harvest scheduling using spatial optimization

Treesearch

Kai L. Ross; Sándor F. Tóth

2016-01-01

Actively managed forest stands can create new forest edges. If left unchecked over time and across space, forest operations such as clear-cuts can create complex networks of forest edges. Newly created edges alter the landscape and can affect many environmental factors. These altered environmental factors have a variety of impacts on forest growth and structure and can...

A dynamic organic soil biogeochemical model for simulating the effects of wildfire on soil environmental conditions and carbon dynamics of black spruce forests

Treesearch

Shuhua Yi; A. David McGuire; Eric Kasischke; Jennifer Harden; Kristen Manies; Michelle Mack; Merritt Turetsky

2010-01-01

Ecosystem models have not comprehensively considered how interactions among fire disturbance, soil environmental conditions, and biogeochemical processes affect ecosystem dynamics in boreal forest ecosystems. In this study, we implemented a dynamic organic soil structure in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM) to investigate the effects of fire on soil temperature...

Effect of an isolated semi-arid pine forest on the boundary layer height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brugger, Peter; Banerjee, Tirtha; Kröniger, Konstantin; Preisler, Yakir; Rotenberg, Eyal; Tatarinov, Fedor; Yakir, Dan; Mauder, Matthias

2017-04-01

Forests play an important role for earth's climate by influencing the surface energy balance and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Semi-arid forests and their effects on the local and regional climate are studied within the CliFF project (Climate Feedbacks and benefits of semi-arid Forests). This requires understanding of the atmospheric boundary layer over semi-arid forests, because it links the surface and the free atmosphere and determines the exchange of momentum, heat and trace gases. Our study site, Yatir, is a semi-arid isolated pine forest in the Negev desert in Israel. Higher roughness and lower albedo compared to the surrounding shrubland make it interesting to study the influences of the semi-arid Yatir forest on the boundary layer. Previous studies of the forest focused on the energy balance and secondary circulations. This study focuses on the boundary layer structure above the forest, in particular the boundary layer height. The boundary layer height is an essential parameter for many applications (e.g. construction of convective scaling parameters or air pollution modeling). We measured the boundary layer height upwind, over and downwind of the forest. In addition we measured at two sites wind profiles within the boundary layer and turbulent fluxes at the surface. This allows us to quantify the effects of the forest on boundary layer compared to the surrounding shrubland. Results show that the forest increases the boundary layer height in absence of a strong boundary layer top inversion. A model of the boundary layer height based on eddy-covariance data shows some agreement to the measurements, but fails during anticyclonic conditions and the transition to the nocturnal boundary layer. More complex models accounting for large scale influences are investigated. Further influences of the forest and surrounding shrubland on the turbulent transport of energy are discussed in a companion presentation (EGU2017-2219).

Modeling the effects of forest harvesting on landscape structure and the spatial distribution of cowbird brood parasitism

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Thomas R. Crow

1994-01-01

Timber harvesting affects both composition and structure of the landscape and has important consequences for organisms using forest habitats. A timber harvest allocation model was constructed that allows the input of specific rules to allocate forest stands for clearcutting to generate landscape patterns reflecting the "look and feel" of managed landscapes....

An application of remote sensing data in mapping landscape-level forest biomass for monitoring the effectiveness of forest policies in northeastern China.

PubMed

Wang, Xinchuang; Shao, Guofan; Chen, Hua; Lewis, Bernard J; Qi, Guang; Yu, Dapao; Zhou, Li; Dai, Limin

2013-09-01

Monitoring the dynamics of forest biomass at various spatial scales is important for better understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle as well as improving the effectiveness of forest policies and forest management activities. In this article, field data and Landsat image data acquired in 1999 and 2007 were utilized to quantify spatiotemporal changes of forest biomass for Dongsheng Forestry Farm in Changbai Mountain region of northeastern China. We found that Landsat TM band 4 and Difference Vegetation Index with a 3 × 3 window size were the best predictors associated with forest biomass estimations in the study area. The inverse regression model with Landsat TM band 4 predictor was found to be the best model. The total forest biomass in the study area decreased slightly from 2.77 × 10(6) Mg in 1999 to 2.73 × 10(6) Mg in 2007, which agreed closely with field-based model estimates. The area of forested land increased from 17.9 × 10(3) ha in 1999 to 18.1 × 10(3) ha in 2007. The stabilization of forest biomass and the slight increase of forested land occurred in the period following implementations of national forest policies in China in 1999. The pattern of changes in both forest biomass and biomass density was altered due to different management regimes adopted in light of those policies. This study reveals the usefulness of the remote sensing-based approach for detecting and monitoring quantitative changes in forest biomass at a landscape scale.

Modeling of larch forest dynamics under a changing climate in eastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Iijima, Y.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Maximov, T. C.; Hiyama, T.

2017-12-01

According to the projection by an earth system model under RCP8.5 scenario, boreal forest in eastern Siberia (near Yakutsk) is predicted to experience significant changes in climate, in which the mean annual air temperature is projected to be positive and the annual precipitation will be doubled by the end of 21st century. Since the forest in this region is underlain by continuous permafrost, both increasing temperature and precipitation can affect the dynamics of forest through the soil water processes. To investigate such effects, we adopted a newly developed terrestrial ecosystem dynamics model named S-TEDy (SEIB-DGVM-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics model), which mechanistically simulates "the way of life" of each individual tree and resulting tree mortality under the future climate conditions. This model was first developed for the simulation of the dynamics of a tropical rainforest in the Borneo Island, and successfully reproduced higher mortality of large trees due to a prolonged drought induced by ENSO event of 1997-1998. To apply this model to a larch forest in eastern Siberia, we are developing a soil submodel to consider the effect of thawing-freezing processes. We will present a simulation results using the future climate projection.

Tree-cover and topography effects on local-infrasound propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, S. M.; Swearingen, M.; Ketcham, S.; White, M.

2013-12-01

Infrasound can propagate very long distances and remain at measurable levels. As a result infrasound sensing is used for remote monitoring in many applications. At local ranges terrain relief is capable of scattering and blocking the propagation and assessment of the influence of the presence or absence of forests on the propagation of infrasonic signals is necessary. Because the wavelengths of interest are much larger than the scale of individual components, the forest is modeled as a porous material. This approximation is developed starting with the Relaxation model of porous materials. This representation is then incorporated into a Crank-Nicholson method parabolic equation solver to determine the relative impacts of the physical parameters of a forest (trunk size and basal area), the presence of gaps/trees in otherwise continuous forest/open terrain, and the effects of meteorology coupled with the porous layer. Finally, the simulations are compared to experimental data from a 10.9 kg blast propagated 14.5 km. Comparison to the experimental data shows that appropriate inclusion of a forest layer along the propagation path provides a closer fit to the data than solely changing the ground type across the frequency range from 1-30 Hz. Spatially discontinuous tree cover is a novel undertaking with forested volumes represented as a flow-resisting porous material. With only terrain topography but without tree cover, the model has conformity with measured signals, but addition of treecover properties does not significantly improve this conformity, though this result is consistent with theoretical expectations for the specific central Mississippi forest densities modeled. This study found that continuous tracts of forest produce some sound enhancement for frequencies below 25 Hz, and additional attenuation between 25-50 Hz. These effects are stronger for forests with higher densities of trees present and decrease as forest density decreases. At distances several kilometers, small (up to 500 m) gaps in otherwise continuous forest or stands of trees in otherwise open areas have nearly negligible impacts. However, if the area of interest is close, say within 1 km, of such a change, or within the alternative medium, then the forest properties need to be considered. The effects of meteorology cannot be ignored, and they are coupled with the porous material properties. In upwind conditions, the forest's influence on the microclimate is stronger than the influence of including only a layer, while the opposite is generally true in the downwind condition. The porous layer representation of forests does provide some value in comparisons to experimental data. Particularly at frequencies above 5 Hz, the forest layer appears to have a ducting effect that effectively brings the predicted levels closer to the experimentally measured levels than does simply providing appropriate ground conditions. The method has been shown to work well, albeit with minimal impact in the case studied, in a Finite Difference Time Domain framework as well. While the method is flexible enough to accommodate modeling the entire trees instead of only trunks, the added benefit does not elicit sufficient improvements to accuracy to merit their inclusion.

Can a growth model be used to describe forest carbon and water balance after fuel reduction burning in temperate forests?

PubMed

Gharun, Mana; Possell, Malcolm; Vervoort, R Willem; Adams, Mark A; Bell, Tina L

2018-02-15

Empirical evidence from Australia shows that fuel reduction burning significantly reduces the incidence and extent of unplanned fires. However, the integration of environmental values into fire management operations is not yet well-defined and requires further research and development. WAVES, a plant growth model that incorporates Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer, was used to simulate the hydrological and ecological effects of three fuel management scenarios on a forest ecosystem. WAVES was applied using inputs from a set of forest plots for one year after three potential scenarios: (1) all litter removed, (2) all litter and 50% of the understorey removed, (3) all litter and understorey removed. Modelled outputs were compared with sites modelled with no-fuel reduction treatment (Unburnt). The key change between unburnt and fuel reduced forests was a significant increase in soil moisture after fire. Predictions of the recovery of aboveground carbon as plant biomass were driven by model structure and thus variability in available light and soil moisture at a local scale. Similarly, effects of fuel reduction burning on water processes were mainly due to changes in vegetation interception capacity (i.e. regrowth) and soil evaporation. Predicted effects of fuel reduction burning on total evapotranspiration (ET) - the major component of water balance - were marginal and not significant, even though a considerable proportion of ET had effectively been transferred from understorey to overstorey. In common with many plant growth models, outputs from WAVES are dictated by the assumption that overstorey trees continue to grow irrespective of their age or stage of maturity. Large areas of eucalypt forests and woodlands in SE Australia are well beyond their aggrading phase and are instead over-mature. The ability of these forests to rapidly respond to greater availability of water remains uncertain. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An integrated analysis of the effects of past land use on forest herb colonization at the landscape scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verheyen, K.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Biesbrouck, B.; Hermy, M.

2003-01-01

A framework that summarizes the direct and indirect effects of past land use on forest herb recolonization is proposed, and used to analyse the colonization patterns of forest understorey herbaceous species in a 360-ha mixed forest, grassland and arable landscape in the Dijle river valley (central Belgium).Fine-scale distribution maps were constructed for 14 species. The species were mapped in 15 946 forest plots and outside forests (along parcel margins) in 5188 plots. Forest stands varied in age between 1 and more than 224 years. Detailed land-use history data were combined with the species distribution maps to identify species-specific colonization sources and to calculate colonization distances.The six most frequent species were selected for more detailed statistical analysis.Logistic regression models indicated that species frequency in forest parcels was a function of secondary forest age, distance from the nearest colonization source and their interaction. Similar age and distance effects were found within hedgerows.In 199 forest stands, data about soils, canopy structure and the cover of competitive species were collected. The relative importance of habitat quality and spatio-temporal isolation for the colonization of the forest herb species was quantified using structural equation modelling (SEM), within the framework proposed for the effects of past land use.The results of the SEM indicate that, except for the better colonizing species, the measured habitat quality variables are of minor importance in explaining colonization patterns, compared with the combination of secondary forest age and distance from colonization sources.Our results suggest the existence of a two-stage colonization process in which diaspore availability determines the initial pattern, which is affected by environmental sorting at later stages.

Climate and bark beetle effects on forest productivity -- linking dendroecology with forest landscape modeling

Treesearch

Alec M. Kretchun; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Matthew D. Hurteau; Soumaya Belmecheri

2016-01-01

In forested systems throughout the world, climate influences tree growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP). The effects of extreme climate events (i.e., drought) on ANPP can be compounded by biotic factors (e.g., insect outbreaks). Understanding the contribution of each of these influences on growth requires information at...

Simulating the effects of the southern pine beetle on regional dynamics 60 years into the future

Treesearch

Jennifer K. Costanza; Jiri Hulcr; Frank H. Koch; Todd Earnhardt; Alexa J. McKerrow; Rob R. Dunn; Jaime A. Collazo

2012-01-01

We developed a spatially explicit model that simulated future southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) dynamics and pine forest management for a real landscape over 60 years to inform regional forest management. The SPB has a considerable effect on forest dynamics in the Southeastern United States, especially in loblolly pine (...

Modeling forest harvesting effects on landscape pattern in the Northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens

Treesearch

Volker C. Radeloff; David J. Mladenoff; Eric J. Gustafson; Robert M. Scheller; Patrick A. Zollner; Hong S. Heilman; H. Resit Akcakaya

2006-01-01

Forest management shapes landscape patterns, and these patterns often differ significantly from those typical for natural disturbance regimes. This may affect wildlife habitat and other aspects of ecosystem function. Our objective was to examine the effects of different forest management decisions on landscape pattern in a fire adapted ecosystem. We used a factorial...

Modeling grain-size dependent bias in estimating forest area: a regional application

Treesearch

Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

2008-01-01

A better understanding of scaling-up effects on estimating important landscape characteristics (e.g. forest percentage) is critical for improving ecological applications over large areas. This study illustrated effects of changing grain sizes on regional forest estimates in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan of the USA using 30-m land-cover maps (1992 and 2001)...

Forest and farmland conservation effects of Oregon's (USA) land-use planning program.

Treesearch

Jeffrey D. Kline

2005-01-01

Oregon's land-use planning program is often cited as an exemplary approach to forest and farmland conservation, but analyses of its effectiveness are limited. This article examines Oregon's land-use planning program using detailed spatial data describing building densities in western Oregon. An empirical model describes changes in building densities on forest...

Simulated effects of reduced sulfur, nitrogen, and base cation deposition on soils and solutions in Southern Appalachian forests

Treesearch

D.W. Johnson; R.B. Susfalk; P.F. Brewer; W.T. Swank

1999-01-01

Effects of reduced deposition of N, S, and CB on nutrient pools, fluxes, soil, and soil solution chemistry were simulated for two Appalachian forest ecosystems using the nutrient cycling model. In the extremely acidic, N- and S-saturated red spruce (Picea rubens (Sarg.)) forest (Nolan Divide), reducing

Simulating ungulate herbivory across forest landscapes: A browsing extension for LANDIS-II

Treesearch

Nathan R. De Jager; Patrick J. Drohan; Brian M. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Susan L. Stout; Alejandro A. Royo; Eric J. Gustafson; Mark C. Romanski

2017-01-01

Browsing ungulates alter forest productivity and vegetation succession through selective foraging onspecies that often dominate early succession. However, the long-term and large-scale effects of browsing on forest succession are not possible to project without the use of simulation models. To explore the effects of ungulates on succession in a spatially explicit...

Integrating LANDIS model and a multi-criteria decision-making approach to evaluate cumulative effects of forest management in the Missouri Ozarks, USA

Treesearch

Zong Bo Shang; Hong S. He; Weimin Xi; Stephen R. Shifley; Brian J. Palik

2012-01-01

Public forest management requires consideration of numerous objectives including protecting ecosystem health, sustaining habitats for native communities, providing sustainable forest products, and providing noncommodity ecosystem services. It is difficult to evaluate the long-term, cumulative effects and tradeoffs these and other associated management objectives. To...

Quantifying streamflow change caused by forest disturbance at a large spatial scale: A single watershed study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Xiaohua; Zhang, Mingfang

2010-12-01

Climatic variability and forest disturbance are commonly recognized as two major drivers influencing streamflow change in large-scale forested watersheds. The greatest challenge in evaluating quantitative hydrological effects of forest disturbance is the removal of climatic effect on hydrology. In this paper, a method was designed to quantify respective contributions of large-scale forest disturbance and climatic variability on streamflow using the Willow River watershed (2860 km2) located in the central part of British Columbia, Canada. Long-term (>50 years) data on hydrology, climate, and timber harvesting history represented by equivalent clear-cutting area (ECA) were available to discern climatic and forestry influences on streamflow by three steps. First, effective precipitation, an integrated climatic index, was generated by subtracting evapotranspiration from precipitation. Second, modified double mass curves were developed by plotting accumulated annual streamflow against annual effective precipitation, which presented a much clearer picture of the cumulative effects of forest disturbance on streamflow following removal of climatic influence. The average annual streamflow changes that were attributed to forest disturbances and climatic variability were then estimated to be +58.7 and -72.4 mm, respectively. The positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) values in streamflow change indicated opposite change directions, which suggest an offsetting effect between forest disturbance and climatic variability in the study watershed. Finally, a multivariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was generated to establish quantitative relationships between accumulated annual streamflow deviation attributed to forest disturbances and annual ECA. The model was then used to project streamflow change under various timber harvesting scenarios. The methodology can be effectively applied to any large-scale single watershed where long-term data (>50 years) are available.

Forest canopy growth dynamic modeling based on remote sensing prodcuts and meteorological data in Daxing'anling of Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiaoli; Song, Jinling; Wang, Jindi; Xiao, Zhiqiang

2014-11-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important biophysical variable for vegetation. Compared with vegetation indexes like NDVI and EVI, LAI is more capable of monitoring forest canopy growth quantitatively. GLASS LAI is a spatially complete and temporally continuous product derived from AVHRR and MODIS reflectance data. In this paper, we present the approach to build dynamic LAI growth models for young and mature Larix gmelinii forest in north Daxing'anling in Inner Mongolia of China using the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) model and Double Logistic (D-L) model respectively, based on the time series extracted from multi-temporal GLASS LAI data. Meanwhile we used the dynamic threshold method to attract the key phenological phases of Larix gmelinii forest from the simulated time series. Then, through the relationship analysis between phenological phases and the meteorological factors, we found that the annual peak LAI and the annual maximum temperature have a good correlation coefficient. The results indicate this forest canopy growth dynamic model to be very effective in predicting forest canopy LAI growth and extracting forest canopy LAI growth dynamic.

[Prediction and spatial distribution of recruitment trees of natural secondary forest based on geographically weighted Poisson model].

PubMed

Zhang, Ling Yu; Liu, Zhao Gang

2017-12-01

Based on the data collected from 108 permanent plots of the forest resources survey in Maoershan Experimental Forest Farm during 2004-2016, this study investigated the spatial distribution of recruitment trees in natural secondary forest by global Poisson regression and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) with four bandwidths of 2.5, 5, 10 and 15 km. The simulation effects of the 5 regressions and the factors influencing the recruitment trees in stands were analyzed, a description was given to the spatial autocorrelation of the regression residuals on global and local levels using Moran's I. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the number of natural secondary forest recruitment was significantly influenced by stands and topographic factors, especially average DBH. The GWPR model with small scale (2.5 km) had high accuracy of model fitting, a large range of model parameter estimates was generated, and the localized spatial distribution effect of the model parameters was obtained. The GWPR model at small scale (2.5 and 5 km) had produced a small range of model residuals, and the stability of the model was improved. The global spatial auto-correlation of the GWPR model residual at the small scale (2.5 km) was the lowe-st, and the local spatial auto-correlation was significantly reduced, in which an ideal spatial distribution pattern of small clusters with different observations was formed. The local model at small scale (2.5 km) was much better than the global model in the simulation effect on the spatial distribution of recruitment tree number.

Combining Multi-Source Remotely Sensed Data and a Process-Based Model for Forest Aboveground Biomass Updating.

PubMed

Lu, Xiaoman; Zheng, Guang; Miller, Colton; Alvarado, Ernesto

2017-09-08

Monitoring and understanding the spatio-temporal variations of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is a key basis to quantitatively assess the carbon sequestration capacity of a forest ecosystem. To map and update forest AGB in the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) of China, this work proposes a physical-based approach. Based on the baseline forest AGB from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images in 2008, we dynamically updated the annual forest AGB from 2009 to 2012 by adding the annual AGB increment (ABI) obtained from the simulated daily and annual net primary productivity (NPP) using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model. The 2012 result was validated by both field- and aerial laser scanning (ALS)-based AGBs. The predicted forest AGB for 2012 estimated from the process-based model can explain 31% ( n = 35, p < 0.05, RMSE = 2.20 kg/m²) and 85% ( n = 100, p < 0.01, RMSE = 1.71 kg/m²) of variation in field- and ALS-based forest AGBs, respectively. However, due to the saturation of optical remote sensing-based spectral signals and contribution of understory vegetation, the BEPS-based AGB tended to underestimate/overestimate the AGB for dense/sparse forests. Generally, our results showed that the remotely sensed forest AGB estimates could serve as the initial carbon pool to parameterize the process-based model for NPP simulation, and the combination of the baseline forest AGB and BEPS model could effectively update the spatiotemporal distribution of forest AGB.

Combining Multi-Source Remotely Sensed Data and a Process-Based Model for Forest Aboveground Biomass Updating

PubMed Central

Lu, Xiaoman; Zheng, Guang; Miller, Colton

2017-01-01

Monitoring and understanding the spatio-temporal variations of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is a key basis to quantitatively assess the carbon sequestration capacity of a forest ecosystem. To map and update forest AGB in the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) of China, this work proposes a physical-based approach. Based on the baseline forest AGB from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images in 2008, we dynamically updated the annual forest AGB from 2009 to 2012 by adding the annual AGB increment (ABI) obtained from the simulated daily and annual net primary productivity (NPP) using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model. The 2012 result was validated by both field- and aerial laser scanning (ALS)-based AGBs. The predicted forest AGB for 2012 estimated from the process-based model can explain 31% (n = 35, p < 0.05, RMSE = 2.20 kg/m2) and 85% (n = 100, p < 0.01, RMSE = 1.71 kg/m2) of variation in field- and ALS-based forest AGBs, respectively. However, due to the saturation of optical remote sensing-based spectral signals and contribution of understory vegetation, the BEPS-based AGB tended to underestimate/overestimate the AGB for dense/sparse forests. Generally, our results showed that the remotely sensed forest AGB estimates could serve as the initial carbon pool to parameterize the process-based model for NPP simulation, and the combination of the baseline forest AGB and BEPS model could effectively update the spatiotemporal distribution of forest AGB. PMID:28885556

Effects of stand age on the demography of a temperate forest herb in post-agricultural forests.

PubMed

Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein

2008-12-01

Changes in land use have been shown to have profound effects on forest plant community structure and diversity. Dispersal limitation has been invoked as a major factor hampering colonization of forest plant species, while seed-sowing experiments and performance observations have provided some evidence for recruitment limitation determining forest plant distribution in post-agricultural forests. However, most of these studies were relatively short-term, and very few studies have investigated long-term growth rates of populations occurring in recent and ancient forests. In this study, matrix models using demographic data collected for four consecutive years were used to study the effect of forest age on population dynamics of the temperate forest herb Primula elatior. A life table response experiment (LTRE) and elasticity analysis were used to analyze the effect of forest age on population growth rate (lambda) and to decompose the effect of forest age on lambda into contributions from each matrix element. Population growth increased logarithmically with increasing forest age. Bootstrap analyses showed that populations located in very recent forests (< 50-years-old) had growth rates that were significantly < 1, whereas populations located in forests > 150-years-old had growth rates that were significantly > 1. Summed elasticities for individual growth significantly decreased with increasing forest age, whereas summed elasticities for survival and fertility significantly increased with increasing forest age. The LTRE analysis showed that the increase in lambda with increasing forest age was mainly due to increased seedling and juvenile growth and increased juvenile and adult survival. Our results indicate that past agricultural land use has long-lasting effects on the demography of forest herbs and may provide an additional mechanistic explanation for the poor colonization capacity of many forest herbs in post-agricultural forests.

Long-Term Field Data and Climate-Habitat Models Show That Orangutan Persistence Depends on Effective Forest Management and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

PubMed Central

Gregory, Stephen D.; Brook, Barry W.; Goossens, Benoît; Ancrenaz, Marc; Alfred, Raymond; Ambu, Laurentius N.; Fordham, Damien A.

2012-01-01

Background Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world’s highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation. Methodology/Principal Findings Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000–10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions. Conclusions/Significance We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government’s proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests. PMID:22970145

Long-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigation.

PubMed

Gregory, Stephen D; Brook, Barry W; Goossens, Benoît; Ancrenaz, Marc; Alfred, Raymond; Ambu, Laurentius N; Fordham, Damien A

2012-01-01

Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world's highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation. Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000-10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions. We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government's proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests.

MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF WILDLIFE HABITAT AND POPULATIONS AT THE LANDSCAPE SCALE

EPA Science Inventory

A forest dynamics model (FORCLIM) was linked to a spatial wildlife population model (PATCH) to assess the effects of habitat change in a landscape on selected wildlife species. The habitat changes included forest responses to harvesting, development, and climate change on a west...

Effects of LiDAR point density and landscape context on the retrieval of urban forest biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, K. K.; Chen, G.; McCarter, J. B.; Meentemeyer, R. K.

2014-12-01

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), as an alternative to conventional optical remote sensing, is being increasingly used to accurately estimate aboveground forest biomass ranging from individual tree to stand levels. Recent advancements in LiDAR technology have resulted in higher point densities and better data accuracies, which however pose challenges to the procurement and processing of LiDAR data for large-area assessments. Reducing point density cuts data acquisition costs and overcome computational challenges for broad-scale forest management. However, how does that impact the accuracy of biomass estimation in an urban environment containing a great level of anthropogenic disturbances? The main goal of this study is to evaluate the effects of LiDAR point density on the biomass estimation of remnant forests in the rapidly urbanizing regions of Charlotte, North Carolina, USA. We used multiple linear regression to establish the statistical relationship between field-measured biomass and predictor variables (PVs) derived from LiDAR point clouds with varying densities. We compared the estimation accuracies between the general Urban Forest models (no discrimination of forest type) and the Forest Type models (evergreen, deciduous, and mixed), which was followed by quantifying the degree to which landscape context influenced biomass estimation. The explained biomass variance of Urban Forest models, adjusted R2, was fairly consistent across the reduced point densities with the highest difference of 11.5% between the 100% and 1% point densities. The combined estimates of Forest Type biomass models outperformed the Urban Forest models using two representative point densities (100% and 40%). The Urban Forest biomass model with development density of 125 m radius produced the highest adjusted R2 (0.83 and 0.82 at 100% and 40% LiDAR point densities, respectively) and the lowest RMSE values, signifying the distance impact of development on biomass estimation. Our evaluation suggests that reducing LiDAR point density is a viable solution to regional-scale forest biomass assessment without compromising the accuracy of estimation, which may further be improved using development density.

Managing burned landscapes: Evaluating future management strategies for resilient forests under a warming climate

Treesearch

K. L. Shive; P. Z. Fule; C. H. Sieg; B. A. Strom; M. E. Hunter

2014-01-01

Climate change effects on forested ecosystems worldwide include increases in drought-related mortality, changes to disturbance regimes and shifts in species distributions. Such climate-induced changes will alter the outcomes of current management strategies, complicating the selection of appropriate strategies to promote forest resilience. We modelled forest growth in...

Comparing erosion risks from forest operations to wildfire

Treesearch

William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud

2001-01-01

Wildfire and forest operations remove vegetation and disturb forest soils. Both of these effects can lead to an increased risk of soil erosion. Operations to reduce forest fuel loads, however, may reduce the risk of wildfire. This paper presents research and modeling results which show that under many conditions, carefully planned operations with adequate buffers,...

Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

Treesearch

Susannah B. Lerman; Keith H. Nislow; David J. Nowak; Stephen DeStefano; David I. King; D. Todd Jones-Farrand

2014-01-01

The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat...

Simulating forest landscape disturbances as coupled human and natural systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wimberly, Michael; Sohl, Terry L.; Liu, Zhihua; Lamsal, Aashis

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic disturbances resulting from human land use affect forest landscapes over a range of spatial and temporal scales, with diverse influences on vegetation patterns and dynamics. These processes fall within the scope of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) concept, which has emerged as an important framework for understanding the reciprocal interactions and feedbacks that connect human activities and ecosystem responses. Spatial simulation modeling of forest landscape change is an important technique for exploring the dynamics of CHANS over large areas and long time periods. Landscape models for simulating interactions between human activities and forest landscape dynamics can be grouped into two main categories. Forest landscape models (FLMs) focus on landscapes where forests are the dominant land cover and simulate succession and natural disturbances along with forest management activities. In contrast, land change models (LCMs) simulate mosaics of different land cover and land use classes that include forests in addition to other land uses such as developed areas and agricultural lands. There are also several examples of coupled models that combine elements of FLMs and LCMs. These integrated models are particularly useful for simulating human–natural interactions in landscapes where human settlement and agriculture are expanding into forested areas. Despite important differences in spatial scale and disciplinary scope, FLMs and LCMs have many commonalities in conceptual design and technical implementation that can facilitate continued integration. The ultimate goal will be to implement forest landscape disturbance modeling in a CHANS framework that recognizes the contextual effects of regional land use and other human activities on the forest ecosystem while capturing the reciprocal influences of forests and their disturbances on the broader land use mosaic.

Conventional intensive logging promotes loss of organic carbon from the mineral soil.

PubMed

Dean, Christopher; Kirkpatrick, James B; Friedland, Andrew J

2017-01-01

There are few data, but diametrically opposed opinions, about the impacts of forest logging on soil organic carbon (SOC). Reviews and research articles conclude either that there is no effect, or show contradictory effects. Given that SOC is a substantial store of potential greenhouse gasses and forest logging and harvesting is routine, resolution is important. We review forest logging SOC studies and provide an overarching conceptual explanation for their findings. The literature can be separated into short-term empirical studies, longer-term empirical studies and long-term modelling. All modelling that includes major aboveground and belowground biomass pools shows a long-term (i.e. ≥300 years) decrease in SOC when a primary forest is logged and then subjected to harvesting cycles. The empirical longer-term studies indicate likewise. With successive harvests the net emission accumulates but is only statistically perceptible after centuries. Short-term SOC flux varies around zero. The long-term drop in SOC in the mineral soil is driven by the biomass drop from the primary forest level but takes time to adjust to the new temporal average biomass. We show agreement between secondary forest SOC stocks derived purely from biomass information and stocks derived from complex forest harvest modelling. Thus, conclusions that conventional harvests do not deplete SOC in the mineral soil have been a function of their short time frames. Forest managers, climate change modellers and environmental policymakers need to assume a long-term net transfer of SOC from the mineral soil to the atmosphere when primary forests are logged and then undergo harvest cycles. However, from a greenhouse accounting perspective, forest SOC is not the entire story. Forest wood products that ultimately reach landfill, and some portion of which produces some soil-like material there rather than in the forest, could possibly help attenuate the forest SOC emission by adding to a carbon pool in landfill. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulation of wetlands forest vegetation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phipps, R.L.

1979-01-01

A computer program, SWAMP, was designed to simulate the effects of flood frequency and depth to water table on southern wetlands forest vegetation dynamics. By incorporating these hydrologic characteristics into the model, forest vegetation and vegetation dynamics can be simulated. The model, based on data from the White River National Wildlife Refuge near De Witt, Arkansas, "grows" individual trees on a 20 x 20-m plot taking into account effects on the tree growth of flooding, depth to water table, shade tolerance, overtopping and crowding, and probability of death and reproduction. A potential application of the model is illustrated with simulations of tree fruit production following flood-control implementation and lumbering. ?? 1979.

Integrating the effects of forest cover on slope stability in a deterministic landslide susceptibility model (TRIGRS 2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieher, T.; Rutzinger, M.; Bremer, M.; Meissl, G.; Geitner, C.

2014-12-01

The potentially stabilizing effects of forest cover in respect of slope stability have been the subject of many studies in the recent past. Hence, the effects of trees are also considered in many deterministic landslide susceptibility models. TRIGRS 2.0 (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability; USGS) is a dynamic, physically-based model designed to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility in space and time. In the original version the effects of forest cover are not considered. As for further studies in Vorarlberg (Austria) TRIGRS 2.0 is intended to be applied in selected catchments that are densely forested, the effects of trees on slope stability were implemented in the model. Besides hydrological impacts such as interception or transpiration by tree canopies and stems, root cohesion directly influences the stability of slopes especially in case of shallow landslides while the additional weight superimposed by trees is of minor relevance. Detailed data on tree positions and further attributes such as tree height and diameter at breast height were derived throughout the study area (52 km²) from high-resolution airborne laser scanning data. Different scenarios were computed for spruce (Picea abies) in the study area. Root cohesion was estimated area-wide based on published correlations between root reinforcement and distance to tree stems depending on the stem diameter at breast height. In order to account for decreasing root cohesion with depth an exponential distribution was assumed and implemented in the model. Preliminary modelling results show that forest cover can have positive effects on slope stability yet strongly depending on tree age and stand structure. This work has been conducted within C3S-ISLS, which is funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund, 5th ACRP Program.

Potential Climate-driven Silvicultural and Agricultural Transformations in Siberia in the 21 Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shvetsov, E.; Soja, A. J.

2017-12-01

Simulations of Siberian forests in a changing climate showed them to be changed in composition, decreased, and shifted northwards. Our goals were to evaluate the ecological consequences for the forests and agriculture in Siberia and to offer adaptive measures that may be undertaken to minimize negative consequences and maximize benefits from a rapidly changing environment in the socially important region of southern Siberia. We considered two strategies to estimate climate-change effects on potentially failing forests within an expanding forest-steppe ecotone. To support forestry, seed transfers from locations that are best suited to the genotypes in future climates may be applied to assist trees and forests in a changing climate. To support agriculture, in view of the growing world concerns on food safety, new farming lands may be established in a new forest-steppe ecotone with its favorable climatic and soil resources. We used our bioclimatic vegetation models of various levels: a forest type model to predict forest shifts and forest-failing lands, tree species range and their climatypes models to predict what tree species/climatype would be suitable and crop models to predict crops to introduce in potentially climate-disturbed areas in Siberia. Climate change data for the 2080s were calculated from the ensemble of 20 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two scenarios to characterize the range of climate change: mild climate (RCP2.6 scenario) and sharp climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). By the 2080s, forest-steppe and steppe rather than forests would dominate up to half of Siberia in the warmer and dryer RCP 8.5 climate. Water stress tolerant and fire-resistant light-needled species Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp. would dominate the forest-steppe ecotone. Failing forests in a dryer climate may be maintained by moving and substituting proper climatypes from locations often hundreds of km away. Agriculture in Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming. Farming may be a choice to use lands where forests would fail. Potential croplands would be limited by suitable soils in the north and irrigation in the south. To recommend an economic strategy that would optimize economic gains/losses due to the effects of climate change will require additional research

Spatially-explicit modeling of multi-scale drivers of aboveground forest biomass and water yield in watersheds of the Southeastern United States.

PubMed

Ajaz Ahmed, Mukhtar Ahmed; Abd-Elrahman, Amr; Escobedo, Francisco J; Cropper, Wendell P; Martin, Timothy A; Timilsina, Nilesh

2017-09-01

Understanding ecosystem processes and the influence of regional scale drivers can provide useful information for managing forest ecosystems. Examining more local scale drivers of forest biomass and water yield can also provide insights for identifying and better understanding the effects of climate change and management on forests. We used diverse multi-scale datasets, functional models and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to model ecosystem processes at the watershed scale and to interpret the influence of ecological drivers across the Southeastern United States (SE US). Aboveground forest biomass (AGB) was determined from available geospatial datasets and water yield was estimated using the Water Supply and Stress Index (WaSSI) model at the watershed level. Our geostatistical model examined the spatial variation in these relationships between ecosystem processes, climate, biophysical, and forest management variables at the watershed level across the SE US. Ecological and management drivers at the watershed level were analyzed locally to identify whether drivers contribute positively or negatively to aboveground forest biomass and water yield ecosystem processes and thus identifying potential synergies and tradeoffs across the SE US region. Although AGB and water yield drivers varied geographically across the study area, they were generally significantly influenced by climate (rainfall and temperature), land-cover factor1 (Water and barren), land-cover factor2 (wetland and forest), organic matter content high, rock depth, available water content, stand age, elevation, and LAI drivers. These drivers were positively or negatively associated with biomass or water yield which significantly contributes to ecosystem interactions or tradeoff/synergies. Our study introduced a spatially-explicit modelling framework to analyze the effect of ecosystem drivers on forest ecosystem structure, function and provision of services. This integrated model approach facilitates multi-scale analyses of drivers and interactions at the local to regional scale. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Direct and indirect effects of fires on the carbon balance of tropical forest ecosystems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Tosca, M. G.; Ward, D. S.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Hess, P. G.

2013-12-01

Fires influence the carbon budget of tropical forests directly because they account for a significant component of net emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. They also have indirect effects on nearby intact forests by modifying regional climate, atmospheric composition, and patterns of nutrient deposition. These latter pathways are not well understood and are often ignored in climate mitigation efforts such as the United Nations Program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). Here we used the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) to quantify the impacts of fire-emitted aerosols on the productivity of tropical forests. Across the tropical forest biome, fire-emitted aerosols reduced surface temperatures and increased the diffuse solar insolation fraction. These changes in surface meteorology increased gross primary production (GPP) in the Community Land Model. However, these drivers were more than offset in many regions by reductions in soil moisture and total solar radiation. The net effect of fire aerosols caused GPP to decrease by approximately 8% in equatorial Asia and 6% in the central Africa. In the Amazon, decreases in photosynthesis in the western part of the basin were nearly balanced by increases in the south and east. Using additional CAM5 and GEOS-Chem model simulations, we estimated fire contributions to surface concentrations of ozone. Using empirical relationships between ozone exposure and GPP from field studies and models, we estimated how tropical forest GPP was further modified by fire-induced ozone. Our results suggest that efforts to reduce the fire component of tropical land use fluxes may have sustainability benefits that extend beyond the balance sheet for greenhouse gases.

Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests

PubMed Central

Frey, Sarah J. K.; Hadley, Adam S.; Johnson, Sherri L.; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A.; Betts, Matthew G.

2016-01-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming. PMID:27152339

Spatial models reveal the microclimatic buffering capacity of old-growth forests.

PubMed

Frey, Sarah J K; Hadley, Adam S; Johnson, Sherri L; Schulze, Mark; Jones, Julia A; Betts, Matthew G

2016-04-01

Climate change is predicted to cause widespread declines in biodiversity, but these predictions are derived from coarse-resolution climate models applied at global scales. Such models lack the capacity to incorporate microclimate variability, which is critical to biodiversity microrefugia. In forested montane regions, microclimate is thought to be influenced by combined effects of elevation, microtopography, and vegetation, but their relative effects at fine spatial scales are poorly known. We used boosted regression trees to model the spatial distribution of fine-scale, under-canopy air temperatures in mountainous terrain. Spatial models predicted observed independent test data well (r = 0.87). As expected, elevation strongly predicted temperatures, but vegetation and microtopography also exerted critical effects. Old-growth vegetation characteristics, measured using LiDAR (light detection and ranging), appeared to have an insulating effect; maximum spring monthly temperatures decreased by 2.5°C across the observed gradient in old-growth structure. These cooling effects across a gradient in forest structure are of similar magnitude to 50-year forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and therefore have the potential to mitigate climate warming at local scales. Management strategies to conserve old-growth characteristics and to curb current rates of primary forest loss could maintain microrefugia, enhancing biodiversity persistence in mountainous systems under climate warming.

Quantifying legacies of clearcut on carbon fluxes and biomass carbon stock in northern temperate forests

Treesearch

W. Wang; J. Xiao; S. V. Ollinger; J. Chen; A. Noormets

2014-01-01

Stand-replacing disturbances including harvests have substantial impacts on forest carbon (C) fluxes and stocks. The quantification and simulation of these effects is essential for better understanding forest C dynamics and informing forest management 5 in the context of global change. We evaluated the process-based forest ecosystem model, PnET-CN, for how well and by...

Interactive effects of ozone and climate on water use, soil moisture content and streamflow in a southern Appalachian forest in the USA

Treesearch

S.B. McLaughlin; S.D. Wullschleger; G. Sun; M. Nosal

2007-01-01

Documentation of the degree and direction of effects of ozone on transpiration of canopies of mature forest trees is critically needed to model ozone effects on forest water use and growth in a warmer future climate.Patterns of sap flow in stems and soil moisture in the rooting zones of mature trees, coupled with late-season...

Where do forests influence rainfall?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

2017-04-01

Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

Modelling effects of forest disturbance history on carbon balance: a deep learning approach using Landsat-time series.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Besnard, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Clevers, J.; Dutrieux, L.; Gans, F.; Herold, M.; Reichstein, M.; Jung, M.

2017-12-01

Forests play a crucial role in the global carbon (C) cycle, covering about 30% of the planet's terrestrial surface, accounting for 50% of plant productivity, and storing 45% of all terrestrial C. As such, forest disturbances affect the balance of terrestrial C dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange, with the potential of releasing large amounts of C into the atmosphere. Understanding and quantifying the effect of forest disturbance on terrestrial C metabolism is critical for improving forest C balance estimates and predictions. Here we combine remote sensing, climate, and eddy-covariance (EC) data to study forest land surface-atmosphere C fluxes at more than 180 sites globally. We aim to enhance understanding of C balance in forest ecosystems by capturing the ecological carry-over effect of disturbance historyon C fluxes. Our objectives are to (1) characterize forest disturbance history through the full temporal depth of the Landsat time series (LTS); and (2) to investigate lag and carry-over effects of forest dynamics and climate on ecosystem C fluxes using a data-driven recurrent neural network(RNN). The resulting data-driven model integrates carry-over effects of the system, using LTS, ecosystem productivity, and several abiotic factors. In this study, we show that our RNN algorithm is able to effectively calculate realistic seasonal, interannual, and across-site C flux variabilities based on EC, LTS, and climate data. In addition, our results demonstrate that a deep learning approach with embedded dynamic memory effects offorest dynamics is able to better capture lag and carry-over effects due to soil-vegetation feedback compared to a classic approach considering only the current condition of the ecosystem. Our study paves the way to produce accurate, high resolution carbon fluxes maps, providing morecomprehensive monitoring, mapping, and reporting of the carbon consequences of forest change globally.

Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Ishida, A.; Kadir, W. R.; Ladpala, P.; Yamagata, Y.

2011-03-01

More reliable estimates of carbon (C) stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT) was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia) and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia) to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems, including the impacts of land-use conversion, in Southeast Asia. Observations and VISIT model simulations indicated that the primary forests had high photosynthetic uptake: gross primary production was estimated at 31.5-35.5 t C ha-1 yr-1. In the VISIT model simulation, the rainforest had a higher total C stock (plant biomass and soil organic matter, 301.5 t C ha-1) than that in the seasonal dry forest (266.5 t C ha-1) in 2008. The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis implied that the ratio of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after deforestation events. The C stock of the oil palm plantation was about 46% of the rainforest's C at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation, when the ratio of remaining residual debris was assumed to be about 33%. These results show that adequate forest management is important for reducing C emission from soil and C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over a long term using both the model simulations and observations.

Gravitational lensing and the Lyman-alpha forest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ikeuchi, Satoru; Turner, Edwin L.

1991-01-01

Possible connections between the inhomogeneities responsible for the Lyman-alpha forest in quasar spectra and gravitational lensing effects are investigated. For most models of the Lyman-alpha forest, no significant lensing is expected. For some versions of the CDM model-based minihalo hypothesis, gravitational lensings on scales less than abour 0.1 arcsec would occur with a frequency approaching that with which ordinary galaxies cause arcsecond scale lensing.

Differential controls on soil carbon density and mineralization among contrasting forest types in a temperate forest ecosystem.

PubMed

You, Ye-Ming; Wang, Juan; Sun, Xiao-Lu; Tang, Zuo-Xin; Zhou, Zhi-Yong; Sun, Osbert Jianxin

2016-03-01

Understanding the controls on soil carbon dynamics is crucial for modeling responses of ecosystem carbon balance to global change, yet few studies provide explicit knowledge on the direct and indirect effects of forest stands on soil carbon via microbial processes. We investigated tree species, soil, and site factors in relation to soil carbon density and mineralization in a temperate forest of central China. We found that soil microbial biomass and community structure, extracellular enzyme activities, and most of the site factors studied varied significantly across contrasting forest types, and that the associations between activities of soil extracellular enzymes and microbial community structure appeared to be weak and inconsistent across forest types, implicating complex mechanisms in the microbial regulation of soil carbon metabolism in relation to tree species. Overall, variations in soil carbon density and mineralization are predominantly accounted for by shared effects of tree species, soil, microclimate, and microbial traits rather than the individual effects of the four categories of factors. Our findings point to differential controls on soil carbon density and mineralization among contrasting forest types and highlight the challenge to incorporate microbial processes for constraining soil carbon dynamics in global carbon cycle models.

Differential controls on soil carbon density and mineralization among contrasting forest types in a temperate forest ecosystem

PubMed Central

You, Ye-Ming; Wang, Juan; Sun, Xiao-Lu; Tang, Zuo-Xin; Zhou, Zhi-Yong; Sun, Osbert Jianxin

2016-01-01

Understanding the controls on soil carbon dynamics is crucial for modeling responses of ecosystem carbon balance to global change, yet few studies provide explicit knowledge on the direct and indirect effects of forest stands on soil carbon via microbial processes. We investigated tree species, soil, and site factors in relation to soil carbon density and mineralization in a temperate forest of central China. We found that soil microbial biomass and community structure, extracellular enzyme activities, and most of the site factors studied varied significantly across contrasting forest types, and that the associations between activities of soil extracellular enzymes and microbial community structure appeared to be weak and inconsistent across forest types, implicating complex mechanisms in the microbial regulation of soil carbon metabolism in relation to tree species. Overall, variations in soil carbon density and mineralization are predominantly accounted for by shared effects of tree species, soil, microclimate, and microbial traits rather than the individual effects of the four categories of factors. Our findings point to differential controls on soil carbon density and mineralization among contrasting forest types and highlight the challenge to incorporate microbial processes for constraining soil carbon dynamics in global carbon cycle models. PMID:26925871

Leakage and spillover effects of forest management on carbon storage: theoretical insights from a simple model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnani, Federico; Dewar, Roderick C.; Borghetti, Marco

2009-04-01

Leakage (spillover) refers to the unintended negative (positive) consequences of forest carbon (C) management in one area on C storage elsewhere. For example, the local C storage benefit of less intensive harvesting in one area may be offset, partly or completely, by intensified harvesting elsewhere in order to meet global timber demand. We present the results of a theoretical study aimed at identifying the key factors determining leakage and spillover, as a prerequisite for more realistic numerical studies. We use a simple model of C storage in managed forest ecosystems and their wood products to derive approximate analytical expressions for the leakage induced by decreasing the harvesting frequency of existing forest, and the spillover induced by establishing new plantations, assuming a fixed total wood production from local and remote (non-local) forests combined. We find that leakage and spillover depend crucially on the growth rates, wood product lifetimes and woody litter decomposition rates of local and remote forests. In particular, our results reveal critical thresholds for leakage and spillover, beyond which effects of forest management on remote C storage exceed local effects. Order of magnitude estimates of leakage indicate its potential importance at global scales.

[Effects of converting cultivated land into forest land on the characteristics of soil organic carbon in limestone mountain area in Ruichang, Jiangxi].

PubMed

Liu, Yuan-qiu; Wang, Fang; Ke, Guo-qing; Wang, Ying-ying; Guo, Shen-mao; Fan, Cheng-fang

2011-04-01

Taking the forest lands having been converted from cultivated land for 5 years in Ruichang City of Jiangxi Province as test objects, this paper studied the characteristics of soil organic carbon (SOC) under 4 different conversion models (forest-seedling integration, pure medicinal forest, bamboo-broadleaved mixed forest, and multi-species mixed forest). After the conversion from cultivated land into forestlands, the contents of SOC, microbial biomass carbon (MBC), and mineralizable carbon (PMC) in 0-20 cm soil layer increased by 24.4%, 29%, and 18.4%, respectively, compared with those under the conversion from cultivated land into wasteland (P < 0.05), which indicated that the conversion from cultivated land into forest lands significantly increased the SOC content and SOC storage. The SOC, MBC, and PMC contents in 0-10 cm soil layer were significantly higher than those in 10-20 cm soil layer (P < 0.01), and the differences between the soil layers of the four forest lands were higher than those of the wasteland. Among the 4 conversion models, forest-seedling integration had more obvious effects on SOC.

Effects of harvest management practices on forest biomass and soil carbon in eucalypt forests in New South Wales, Australia: Simulations with the forest succession model LINKAGES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ranatunga, Kemachandra; Keenan, Rodney J.; Wullschleger, Stan D

2008-01-01

Understanding long-term changes in forest ecosystem carbon stocks under forest management practices such as timber harvesting is important for assessing the contribution of forests to the global carbon cycle. Harvesting effects are complicated by the amount, type, and condition of residue left on-site, the decomposition rate of this residue, the incorporation of residue into soil organic matter and the rate of new detritus input to the forest floor from regrowing vegetation. In an attempt to address these complexities, the forest succession model LINKAGES was used to assess the production of aboveground biomass, detritus, and soil carbon stocks in native Eucalyptusmore » forests as influenced by five harvest management practices in New South Wales, Australia. The original decomposition sub-routines of LINKAGES were modified by adding components of the Rothamsted (RothC) soil organic matter turnover model. Simulation results using the new model were compared to data from long-term forest inventory plots. Good agreement was observed between simulated and measured above-ground biomass, but mixed results were obtained for basal area. Harvesting operations examined included removing trees for quota sawlogs (QSL, DBH >80 cm), integrated sawlogs (ISL, DBH >20 cm) and whole-tree harvesting in integrated sawlogs (WTH). We also examined the impact of different cutting cycles (20, 50 or 80 years) and intensities (removing 20, 50 or 80 m{sup 3}). Generally medium and high intensities of shorter cutting cycles in sawlog harvesting systems produced considerably higher soil carbon values compared to no harvesting. On average, soil carbon was 2-9% lower in whole-tree harvest simulations whereas in sawlog harvest simulations soil carbon was 5-17% higher than in no harvesting.« less

Forest fragmentation and selective logging have inconsistent effects on multiple animal-mediated ecosystem processes in a tropical forest.

PubMed

Schleuning, Matthias; Farwig, Nina; Peters, Marcell K; Bergsdorf, Thomas; Bleher, Bärbel; Brandl, Roland; Dalitz, Helmut; Fischer, Georg; Freund, Wolfram; Gikungu, Mary W; Hagen, Melanie; Garcia, Francisco Hita; Kagezi, Godfrey H; Kaib, Manfred; Kraemer, Manfred; Lung, Tobias; Naumann, Clas M; Schaab, Gertrud; Templin, Mathias; Uster, Dana; Wägele, J Wolfgang; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

2011-01-01

Forest fragmentation and selective logging are two main drivers of global environmental change and modify biodiversity and environmental conditions in many tropical forests. The consequences of these changes for the functioning of tropical forest ecosystems have rarely been explored in a comprehensive approach. In a Kenyan rainforest, we studied six animal-mediated ecosystem processes and recorded species richness and community composition of all animal taxa involved in these processes. We used linear models and a formal meta-analysis to test whether forest fragmentation and selective logging affected ecosystem processes and biodiversity and used structural equation models to disentangle direct from biodiversity-related indirect effects of human disturbance on multiple ecosystem processes. Fragmentation increased decomposition and reduced antbird predation, while selective logging consistently increased pollination, seed dispersal and army-ant raiding. Fragmentation modified species richness or community composition of five taxa, whereas selective logging did not affect any component of biodiversity. Changes in the abundance of functionally important species were related to lower predation by antbirds and higher decomposition rates in small forest fragments. The positive effects of selective logging on bee pollination, bird seed dispersal and army-ant raiding were direct, i.e. not related to changes in biodiversity, and were probably due to behavioural changes of these highly mobile animal taxa. We conclude that animal-mediated ecosystem processes respond in distinct ways to different types of human disturbance in Kakamega Forest. Our findings suggest that forest fragmentation affects ecosystem processes indirectly by changes in biodiversity, whereas selective logging influences processes directly by modifying local environmental conditions and resource distributions. The positive to neutral effects of selective logging on ecosystem processes show that the functionality of tropical forests can be maintained in moderately disturbed forest fragments. Conservation concepts for tropical forests should thus include not only remaining pristine forests but also functionally viable forest remnants.

Forest Fragmentation and Selective Logging Have Inconsistent Effects on Multiple Animal-Mediated Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Forest

PubMed Central

Schleuning, Matthias; Farwig, Nina; Peters, Marcell K.; Bergsdorf, Thomas; Bleher, Bärbel; Brandl, Roland; Dalitz, Helmut; Fischer, Georg; Freund, Wolfram; Gikungu, Mary W.; Hagen, Melanie; Garcia, Francisco Hita; Kagezi, Godfrey H.; Kaib, Manfred; Kraemer, Manfred; Lung, Tobias; Schaab, Gertrud; Templin, Mathias; Uster, Dana; Wägele, J. Wolfgang; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

2011-01-01

Forest fragmentation and selective logging are two main drivers of global environmental change and modify biodiversity and environmental conditions in many tropical forests. The consequences of these changes for the functioning of tropical forest ecosystems have rarely been explored in a comprehensive approach. In a Kenyan rainforest, we studied six animal-mediated ecosystem processes and recorded species richness and community composition of all animal taxa involved in these processes. We used linear models and a formal meta-analysis to test whether forest fragmentation and selective logging affected ecosystem processes and biodiversity and used structural equation models to disentangle direct from biodiversity-related indirect effects of human disturbance on multiple ecosystem processes. Fragmentation increased decomposition and reduced antbird predation, while selective logging consistently increased pollination, seed dispersal and army-ant raiding. Fragmentation modified species richness or community composition of five taxa, whereas selective logging did not affect any component of biodiversity. Changes in the abundance of functionally important species were related to lower predation by antbirds and higher decomposition rates in small forest fragments. The positive effects of selective logging on bee pollination, bird seed dispersal and army-ant raiding were direct, i.e. not related to changes in biodiversity, and were probably due to behavioural changes of these highly mobile animal taxa. We conclude that animal-mediated ecosystem processes respond in distinct ways to different types of human disturbance in Kakamega Forest. Our findings suggest that forest fragmentation affects ecosystem processes indirectly by changes in biodiversity, whereas selective logging influences processes directly by modifying local environmental conditions and resource distributions. The positive to neutral effects of selective logging on ecosystem processes show that the functionality of tropical forests can be maintained in moderately disturbed forest fragments. Conservation concepts for tropical forests should thus include not only remaining pristine forests but also functionally viable forest remnants. PMID:22114695

Modeling and Assessing Insect Disturbance on Boreal Forests in the Krasnoyarsk region of Russia by Employing the FAREAST Gap Model and Local Forest Inventory and Disturbance Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erler, A. E.; Shuman, J. K.; Soukhavolosky, V.; Kovalev, A.; Stevens, T.; Shugart, H. H.

2008-12-01

FAREAST: an individual-based forest dynamics model was initially developed to simulate the forested region around Changbai Mountain in northern China. In recent years the model has been expanded across Siberia. The model output for biomass (tCha-1) has been verified against forest inventory data for a number of sites across Russia. With this success, an additional module for the model was written by Anton Kovalev to predict the impact of insect disturbance on the Boreal forests. This model predicts the probability of an insect outbreak occurring, and then, by assessing each individual tree in a modeled stand, predicts whether a tree will be killed as a result of insect predation. From this, a disturbance index is calculated that includes lost biomass as a result of insect disturbance and subsequent species composition. This disturbance "fingerprint" is being compared to forest inventory and insect disturbance data from the Usolsky forests in the Krasnoyarsk region of central Siberia. Silkworm disturbance is expressed in this geo- database as a percentage of trees damaged or killed in a stand. The forest inventory data allows us to calculate a biomass estimate that will be compared to the biomass outputs generated by the model post insect disturbance. The validation of simulated biomass with independent inventory data confirms that FAREAST is a robust model of Russian forest dynamics. Effective validation of the insect disturbance model will allow us to generate a more complete picture of the changing ecology of the Siberian Boreal landscape. The economic cost of lumber lost as a result of Silkworm damage has been enormous, if verified, FAREAST will afford us the opportunity to estimate the extent of that loss and predict the changing ecological dynamics of the Boreal forest system under the worlds evolving climate.

FIA BioSum: a tool to evaluate financial costs, opportunities and effectiveness of fuel treatments.

Treesearch

Jeremy Fried; Glenn Christensen

2004-01-01

FIA BioSum, a tool developed by the USDA Forest Services Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program, generates reliable cost estimates, identifies opportunities and evaluates the effectiveness of fuel treatments in forested landscapes. BioSum is an analytic framework that integrates a suite of widely used computer models with a foundation of attribute-rich,...

Effectiveness of Prescribed Fire as a Fuel Treatment in Californian Coniferous Forests

Treesearch

Nicole M. Vaillant; JoAnn Fites-Kaufman; Scott L. Stephens

2006-01-01

Effective fire suppression for the past century has altered forest structure and increased fuel loads. Prescribed fire as a fuels treatment can reduce wildfire size and severity. This study investigates how prescribed fire affects fuel loads, forest structure, potential fire behavior, and modeled tree mortality at 80th, 90th, and 97.5th percentile fire weather...

Local calibration of the Forest Vegetation simulator (FVS) using custom inventory data

Treesearch

J. D. Shaw; G. Vacchiano; R. J. DeRose; A. Brough; A. Kusbach; J. N. Long

2006-01-01

Fort Bragg, North Carolina includes over 65,000 acres of longleaf pine forest, which is primary habitat for the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (RCW). Effective management of the RCW depends on effective management of the longleaf pine forest. However, growth and yield models available in the geographic area that includes Fort Bragg over-predict stand growth and...

Simulated effects of forest management alternatives on landscape structure and habitat suitability in the Midwestern United States

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R., III Thompson; William D. Dijak; Michael A. Larson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2006-01-01

Understanding the cumulative effects and resource trade-offs associated with forest management requires the ability to predict, analyze, and communicate information about how forest landscapes (1000s to > 100,000 ha in extent) respond to silviculture and other disturbances. We applied a spatially explicit landscape simulation model, LANDIS, and compared the outcomes...

Microcomputer software for calculating an elk habitat effectiveness index on Blue Mountain winter ranges.

Treesearch

Mark Hitchcock; Alan Ager

1992-01-01

National Forests in the Pacific Northwest Region have incorporated elk habitat standards into Forest plans to ensure that elk habitat objectives are met on multiple use land allocations. Many Forests have employed versions of the habitat effectiveness index (HEI) as a standard method to evaluate habitat. Field application of the HEI model unfortunately is a formidable...

Landscape risk factors for Lyme disease in the eastern broadleaf forest province of the Hudson River valley and the effect of explanatory data classification resolution.

PubMed

Messier, Kyle P; Jackson, Laura E; White, Jennifer L; Hilborn, Elizabeth D

2015-01-01

This study assessed how landcover classification affects associations between landscape characteristics and Lyme disease rate. Landscape variables were derived from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), including native classes (e.g., deciduous forest, developed low intensity) and aggregate classes (e.g., forest, developed). Percent of each landcover type, median income, and centroid coordinates were calculated by census tract. Regression results from individual and aggregate variable models were compared with the dispersion parameter-based R(2) (Rα(2)) and AIC. The maximum Rα(2) was 0.82 and 0.83 for the best aggregate and individual model, respectively. The AICs for the best models differed by less than 0.5%. The aggregate model variables included forest, developed, agriculture, agriculture-squared, y-coordinate, y-coordinate-squared, income and income-squared. The individual model variables included deciduous forest, deciduous forest-squared, developed low intensity, pasture, y-coordinate, y-coordinate-squared, income, and income-squared. Results indicate that regional landscape models for Lyme disease rate are robust to NLCD landcover classification resolution. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Low historical nitrogen deposition effect on carbon sequestration in the boreal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, K.; Wârlind, D.; van der Molen, M. K.; Rebel, K. T.; Arneth, A.; Erisman, J. W.; Wassen, M. J.; Smith, B.; Gough, C. M.; Margolis, H. A.; Cescatti, A.; Montagnani, L.; Arain, A.; Dolman, A. J.

2015-12-01

Nitrogen (N) cycle dynamics and N deposition play an important role in determining the terrestrial biosphere's carbon (C) balance. We assess global and biome-specific N deposition effects on C sequestration rates with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Modeled CN interactions are evaluated by comparing predictions of the C and CN version of the model with direct observations of C fluxes from 68 forest FLUXNET sites. N limitation on C uptake reduced overestimation of gross primary productivity for boreal evergreen needleleaf forests from 56% to 18%, presenting the greatest improvement among forest types. Relative N deposition effects on C sequestration (dC/dN) in boreal, temperate, and tropical sites ranged from 17 to 26 kg C kg N-1 when modeled at site scale and were reduced to 12-22 kg C kg N-1 at global scale. We find that 19% of the recent (1990-2007) and 24% of the historical global C sink (1900-2006) was driven by N deposition effects. While boreal forests exhibit highest dC/dN, their N deposition-induced C sink was relatively low and is suspected to stay low in the future as no major changes in N deposition rates are expected in the boreal zone. N deposition induced a greater C sink in temperate and tropical forests, while predicted C fluxes and N-induced C sink response in tropical forests were associated with greatest uncertainties. Future work should be directed at improving the ability of LPJ-GUESS and other process-based ecosystem models to reproduce C cycle dynamics in the tropics, facilitated by more benchmarking data sets. Furthermore, efforts should aim to improve understanding and model representations of N availability (e.g., N fixation and organic N uptake), N limitation, P cycle dynamics, and effects of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes.

Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

2014-05-01

Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable climatic and soil resources. During this century, traditional Siberian crops are predicted to gradually shift northwards and new crops, which are currently non-existent but potentially important in a warmer climate, could be introduced in the extreme south. In a future warmer climate, the economic effect of climate change impacts on agriculture was estimated based on a production function approach and the Ricardian model. The production function estimated climate impacts of temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide levels. The Ricardian model examined climate impacts on the net rent or value of farmland at various regions. The models produced the optimal distribution of agricultural lands between crop, livestock, and forestry sectors to compensate economic losses in forestry in potential landuse areas depending on climatic change.

Selective logging: do rates of forest turnover in stems, species composition and functional traits decrease with time since disturbance? – A 45 year perspective

PubMed Central

Osazuwa-Peters, Oyomoare L.; Jiménez, Iván; Oberle, Brad; Chapman, Colin A.; Zanne, Amy E.

2015-01-01

Selective logging, the targeted harvesting of timber trees in a single cutting cycle, is globally rising in extent and intensity. Short-term impacts of selective logging on tropical forests have been widely investigated, but long-term effects on temporal dynamics of forest structure and composition are largely unknown. Understanding these long-term dynamics will help determine whether tropical forests are resilient to selective logging and inform choices between competing demands of anthropogenic use versus conservation of tropical forests. Forest dynamics can be studied within the framework of succession theory, which predicts that temporal turnover rates should decline with time since disturbance. Here, we investigated the temporal dynamics of a tropical forest in Kibale National Park, Uganda over 45 years following selective logging. We estimated turnover rates in stems, species composition, and functional traits (wood density and diameter at breast height), using observations from four censuses in 1989, 1999, 2006, and 2013, of stems ≥ 10 cm diameter within 17 unlogged and 9 logged 200 × 10 m vegetation plots. We used null models to account for interdependencies among turnover rates in stems, species composition, and functional traits. We tested predictions that turnover rates should be higher and decrease with increasing time since the selective logging event in logged forest, but should be less temporally variable in unlogged forest. Overall, we found higher turnover rates in logged forest for all three attributes, but turnover rates did not decline through time in logged forest and was not less temporally variable in unlogged forest. These results indicate that successional models that assume recovery to pre-disturbance conditions are inadequate for predicting the effects of selective logging on the dynamics of the tropical forest in Kibale. Selective logging resulted in persistently higher turnover rates, which may compromise the carbon storage capacity of Kibale’s forest. Selective logging effects may also interact with effects from other global trends, potentially causing major long-term shifts in the dynamics of tropical forests. Similar studies in tropical forests elsewhere will help determine the generality of these conclusions. Ultimately, the view that selective logging is a benign approach to the management of tropical forests should be reconsidered in the light of studies of the effects of this practice on long-term forest dynamics. PMID:26339115

Selective logging: do rates of forest turnover in stems, species composition and functional traits decrease with time since disturbance? - A 45 year perspective.

PubMed

Osazuwa-Peters, Oyomoare L; Jiménez, Iván; Oberle, Brad; Chapman, Colin A; Zanne, Amy E

2015-12-01

Selective logging, the targeted harvesting of timber trees in a single cutting cycle, is globally rising in extent and intensity. Short-term impacts of selective logging on tropical forests have been widely investigated, but long-term effects on temporal dynamics of forest structure and composition are largely unknown. Understanding these long-term dynamics will help determine whether tropical forests are resilient to selective logging and inform choices between competing demands of anthropogenic use versus conservation of tropical forests. Forest dynamics can be studied within the framework of succession theory, which predicts that temporal turnover rates should decline with time since disturbance. Here, we investigated the temporal dynamics of a tropical forest in Kibale National Park, Uganda over 45 years following selective logging. We estimated turnover rates in stems, species composition, and functional traits (wood density and diameter at breast height), using observations from four censuses in 1989, 1999, 2006, and 2013, of stems ≥ 10 cm diameter within 17 unlogged and 9 logged 200 × 10 m vegetation plots. We used null models to account for interdependencies among turnover rates in stems, species composition, and functional traits. We tested predictions that turnover rates should be higher and decrease with increasing time since the selective logging event in logged forest, but should be less temporally variable in unlogged forest. Overall, we found higher turnover rates in logged forest for all three attributes, but turnover rates did not decline through time in logged forest and was not less temporally variable in unlogged forest. These results indicate that successional models that assume recovery to pre-disturbance conditions are inadequate for predicting the effects of selective logging on the dynamics of the tropical forest in Kibale. Selective logging resulted in persistently higher turnover rates, which may compromise the carbon storage capacity of Kibale's forest. Selective logging effects may also interact with effects from other global trends, potentially causing major long-term shifts in the dynamics of tropical forests. Similar studies in tropical forests elsewhere will help determine the generality of these conclusions. Ultimately, the view that selective logging is a benign approach to the management of tropical forests should be reconsidered in the light of studies of the effects of this practice on long-term forest dynamics.

Regional impacts of Atlantic Forest deforestation on climate and vegetation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Chambers, J. Q.

2012-12-01

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest was a large and important forest due to its high biodiversity, endemism, range in climate, and complex geography. The original Atlantic Forest was estimated to cover 150 million hectares, spanning large latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevation gradients. This unique environment helped contribute to a diverse assemblage of plants, mammals, birds, and reptiles. Unfortunately, due to land conversion into agriculture, pasture, urban areas, and increased forest fragmentation, only ~8-10% of the original Atlantic Forest remains. Tropical deforestation in the Americas can have considerable effects on local to global climates, and surrounding vegetation growth and survival. This study uses a fully coupled, global climate model (Community Earth System Model, CESM v.1.0.1) to simulate the full removal of the historical Atlantic Forest, and evaluate the regional climatic and vegetation responses due to deforestation. We used the fully coupled atmosphere and land surface components in CESM, and a partially interacting ocean component. The vegetated grid cell portion of the land surface component, the Community Landscape Model (CLM), is divided into 4 of 16 plant functional types (PFTs) with vertical layers of canopy, leaf area index, soil physical properties, and interacting hydrological features all tracking energy, water, and carbon state and flux variables, making CLM highly capable in predicting the complex nature and outcomes of large-scale deforestation. The Atlantic Forest removal (i.e. deforestation) was conducted my converting all woody stem PFTs to grasses in CLM, creating a land-use change from forest to pasture. By comparing the simulated historical Atlantic Forest (pre human alteration) to a deforested Atlantic Forest (close to current conditions) in CLM and CESM we found that live stem carbon, NPP (gC m-2 yr-1), and other vegetation dynamics inside and outside the Atlantic Forest region were largely altered. In addition to vegetation effects, regional surface air temperature (C°), precipitation (mm day-1), and emitted longwave radiation (W m-2) were highly affected in the location of the removed forest, and throughout surrounding areas of South America. For example climate patterns of increased temperature and decreased precipitation were affected as far as the Amazon Forest region. The use of fully coupled global climate and terrestrial models to study the effects of large-scale forest removal have been rarely applied. This study successfully showed the valuation of an important tropical forest, and the consequences of large deforestation through the reporting of complex earth-atmosphere interactions between vegetation dynamics and climate.

Occupancy dynamics in a tropical bird community: unexpectedly high forest use by birds classified as non-forest species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Zipkin, Elise F.; Dhondt, Andre A.

2010-01-01

1. Worldwide loss of biodiversity necessitates a clear understanding of the factors driving population declines as well as informed predictions about which species and populations are at greatest risk. The biggest threat to the long-term persistence of populations is the reduction and changes in configuration of their natural habitat. 2. Inconsistencies have been noted in the responses of populations to the combined effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. These have been widely attributed to the effects of the matrix habitats in which remnant focal habitats are typically embedded. 3. We quantified the potential effects of the inter-patch matrix by estimating occupancy and colonization of forest and surrounding non-forest matrix (NF). We estimated species-specific parameters using a dynamic, multi-species hierarchical model on a bird community in southwestern Costa Rica. 4. Overall, we found higher probabilities of occupancy and colonization of forest relative to the NF across bird species, including those previously categorized as open habitat generalists not needing forest to persist. Forest dependency was a poor predictor of occupancy dynamics in our study region, largely predicting occupancy and colonization of only non-forest habitats. 5. Our results indicate that the protection of remnant forest habitats is key for the long-term persistence of all members of the bird community in this fragmented landscape, including species typically associated with open, non-forest habitats. 6.Synthesis and applications. We identified 39 bird species of conservation concern defined by having high estimates of forest occupancy, and low estimates of occupancy and colonization of non-forest. These species survive in forest but are unlikely to venture out into open, non-forested habitats, therefore, they are vulnerable to the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Our hierarchical community-level model can be used to estimate species-specific occupancy dynamics for focal and inter-patch matrix habitats to identify which species within a community are likely to be impacted most by habitat loss and fragmentation. This model can be applied to other taxa (i.e. amphibians, mammals and insects) to estimate species and community occurrence dynamics in response to current environmental conditions and to make predictions in response to future changes in habitat configurations.

Cost-effective age structure and geographical distribution of boreal forest reserves

PubMed Central

Lundström, Johanna; Öhman, Karin; Perhans, Karin; Rönnqvist, Mikael; Gustafsson, Lena; Bugman, Harald

2011-01-01

1. Forest reserves are established to preserve biodiversity, and to maintain natural functions and processes. Today there is heightened focus on old-growth stages, with less attention given to early successional stages. The biodiversity potential of younger forests has been overlooked, and the cost-effectiveness of incorporating different age classes in reserve networks has not yet been studied. 2. We performed a reserve selection analysis in boreal Sweden using the Swedish National Forest Inventory plots. Seventeen structural variables were used as biodiversity indicators, and the cost of protecting each plot as a reserve was assessed using the Heureka system. A goal programming approach was applied, which allowed inclusion of several objectives and avoided a situation in which common indicators affected the result more than rare ones. The model was limited either by budget or area. 3. All biodiversity indicators were found in all age classes, with more than half having the highest values in ages ≥ 100 years. Several large-tree indicators and all deadwood indicators had higher values in forests 0–14 years than in forests 15–69 years. 4. It was most cost-effective to protect a large proportion of young forests since they generally have a lower net present value compared to older forests, but still contain structures of importance for biodiversity. However, it was more area-effective to protect a large proportion of old forests since they have a higher biodiversity potential per area. 5. The geographical distribution of reserves selected with the budget-constrained model was strongly biassed towards the north-western section of boreal Sweden, with a large proportion of young forest, whereas the area-constrained model focussed on the south-eastern section, with dominance by the oldest age class. 6. Synthesis and applications. We show that young forests with large amounts of structures important to biodiversity such as dead wood and remnant trees are cheap and cost-efficient to protect. This suggests that reserve networks should incorporate sites with high habitat quality of different forest ages. Since young forests are generally neglected in conservation, our approach is of interest also to other forest biomes where biodiversity is adapted to disturbance regimes resulting in open, early successional stages. PMID:22879680

Integrating a process-based ecosystem model with Landsat imagery to assess impacts of forest disturbance on terrestrial carbon dynamics: Case studies in Alabama and Mississippi

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Forest ecosystems in the southern United States are dramatically altered by three major 26 disturbances: timber harvesting, hurricane, and permanent land conversion. Understanding and quantifying effects of disturbance on forest carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles is critical for sustainable forest m...

Modeling Actual Evapotranspiration From Forested Watersheds Across the Southeastern United States

Treesearch

Jianbiao Lu; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Devendra M. Amatya

2003-01-01

About 50 to 80 percent of precipitation in the southeastern United States returns to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. As evapotranspiration is a major component in the forest water balances, accurately quantifying it is critical to predicting the effects of forest management and global change on water, sediment, and nutrient yield from forested watersheds. However...

Modeling impacts of fire severity on successional trajectories and future fire behavior in Alaskan boreal forests

Treesearch

Jill F. Johnstone; T. Scott Rupp; Mark Olson; David. Verbyla

2011-01-01

Much of the boreal forest in western North America and Alaska experiences frequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Secondary succession after fire initiates most forest stands and variations in fire characteristics can have strong effects on pathways of succession. Variations in surface fire severity that influence whether regenerating forests are dominated by coniferous...

Using silviculture to influence carbon sequestration in southern Appalachian spruce-fir forests

Treesearch

Patrick T. Moore; R. Justin DeRose; James N. Long; Helga van Miegroet

2012-01-01

Enhancement of forest growth through silvicultural modification of stand density is one strategy for increasing carbon (C) sequestration. Using the Fire and Fuels Extension of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, the effects of even-aged, uneven-aged and no-action management scenarios on C sequestration in a southern Appalachian red spruce-Fraser fir forest were modeled....

Do little interactions get lost in dark random forests?

PubMed

Wright, Marvin N; Ziegler, Andreas; König, Inke R

2016-03-31

Random forests have often been claimed to uncover interaction effects. However, if and how interaction effects can be differentiated from marginal effects remains unclear. In extensive simulation studies, we investigate whether random forest variable importance measures capture or detect gene-gene interactions. With capturing interactions, we define the ability to identify a variable that acts through an interaction with another one, while detection is the ability to identify an interaction effect as such. Of the single importance measures, the Gini importance captured interaction effects in most of the simulated scenarios, however, they were masked by marginal effects in other variables. With the permutation importance, the proportion of captured interactions was lower in all cases. Pairwise importance measures performed about equal, with a slight advantage for the joint variable importance method. However, the overall fraction of detected interactions was low. In almost all scenarios the detection fraction in a model with only marginal effects was larger than in a model with an interaction effect only. Random forests are generally capable of capturing gene-gene interactions, but current variable importance measures are unable to detect them as interactions. In most of the cases, interactions are masked by marginal effects and interactions cannot be differentiated from marginal effects. Consequently, caution is warranted when claiming that random forests uncover interactions.

Consequences of carbon offset payments for the global forest sector

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai. Zhu

2013-01-01

Long-term effects of policies to induce carbon storage in forests were projected with the Global Forest Products Model. Offset pay- ments for carbon sequestered in forest biomass of $15–$50/t CO2 e applied in all countries increased CO2 sequestration in world forests by 5–14 billion tons from 2009 to 2030. Limiting implementation to developed countries exported...

Hydrology-oriented forest management trade-offs. A modeling framework coupling field data, simulation results and Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Garcia-Prats, Alberto; González-Sanchis, María; Del Campo, Antonio D; Lull, Cristina

2018-10-15

Hydrology-oriented forest management sets water as key factor of the forest management for adaptation due to water is the most limiting factor in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to apply Bayesian Network modeling to assess potential indirect effects and trade-offs when hydrology-oriented forest management is applied to a real Mediterranean forest ecosystem. Water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and forest fire risk were included in the modeling framework. Field data from experimental plots were employed to calibrate and validate the mechanistic Biome-BGCMuSo model that simulates the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. Many other 50-year long scenarios with different conditions to the ones measured in the field experiment were simulated and the outcomes employed to build the Bayesian Network in a linked chain of models. Hydrology-oriented forest management was very positive insofar as more water was made available to the stand because of an interception reduction. This resource was made available to the stand, which increased the evapotranspiration and its components, the soil water content and a slightly increase of deep percolation. Conversely, Stemflow was drastically reduced. No effect was observed on Runof due to the thinning treatment. The soil organic carbon content was also increased which in turn caused a greater respiration. The long-term effect of the thinning treatment on the LAI was very positive. This was undoubtedly due to the increased vigor generated by the greater availability of water and nutrients for the stand and the reduction of competence between trees. This greater activity resulted in an increase in GPP and vegetation carbon, and therefore, we would expect a higher carbon sequestration. It is worth emphasizing that this extra amount of water and nutrients was taken up by the stand and did not entail any loss of nutrients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS

Treesearch

Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson

2004-01-01

Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...

Assessing effects of mitigation strategies for global climate change with an intertemporal model of the U.S. forest and agriculture sectors.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Darius M. Adams; Bruce McCarl; J.M. Callaway; Steven Winnett

1997-01-01

A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a "least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets: land use...

Climate change effects on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest: a review and synthesis of the scientific literature and simulation model projections

Treesearch

David W. Peterson; Becky K. Kerns; Erich Kyle Dodson

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to review scientifi c knowledge and model projections on vegetation vulnerability to climatic and other environmental changes in the Pacifi c Northwest, with emphasis on fi ve major biome types: subalpine forests and alpine meadows, maritime coniferous forests, dry coniferous forests, savannas and woodlands (oak and juniper), and interior...

Forest resources, government policy, and investment location decisions of the forest products industry in the southern United States

Treesearch

Changyou Sun; Daowei Zhang

2010-01-01

In this article, the results of an initial attempt to estimate the effects of state attributes on plant location and investment expenditure were presented for the forest products industry in the southern United States. A conditional logit model was used to analyze new plant births, and a time-series cross-section model to assess the total capital expenditure....

Tree Size Inequality Reduces Forest Productivity: An Analysis Combining Inventory Data for Ten European Species and a Light Competition Model.

PubMed

Bourdier, Thomas; Cordonnier, Thomas; Kunstler, Georges; Piedallu, Christian; Lagarrigues, Guillaume; Courbaud, Benoit

2016-01-01

Plant structural diversity is usually considered as beneficial for ecosystem functioning. For instance, numerous studies have reported positive species diversity-productivity relationships in plant communities. However, other aspects of structural diversity such as individual size inequality have been far less investigated. In forests, tree size inequality impacts directly tree growth and asymmetric competition, but consequences on forest productivity are still indeterminate. In addition, the effect of tree size inequality on productivity is likely to vary with species shade-tolerance, a key ecological characteristic controlling asymmetric competition and light resource acquisition. Using plot data from the French National Geographic Agency, we studied the response of stand productivity to size inequality for ten forest species differing in shade tolerance. We fitted a basal area stand production model that included abiotic factors, stand density, stand development stage and a tree size inequality index. Then, using a forest dynamics model we explored whether mechanisms of light interception and light use efficiency could explain the tree size inequality effect observed for three of the ten species studied. Size inequality negatively affected basal area increment for seven out of the ten species investigated. However, this effect was not related to the shade tolerance of these species. According to the model simulations, the negative tree size inequality effect could result both from reduced total stand light interception and reduced light use efficiency. Our results demonstrate that negative relationships between size inequality and productivity may be the rule in tree populations. The lack of effect of shade tolerance indicates compensatory mechanisms between effect on light availability and response to light availability. Such a pattern deserves further investigations for mixed forests where complementarity effects between species are involved. When studying the effect of structural diversity on ecosystem productivity, tree size inequality is a major facet that should be taken into account.

Modeling the effects of throughfall reduction on soil water content in a Brazilian Oxisol under a moist tropical forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belk, Elizabeth L.; Markewitz, Daniel; Rasmussen, Todd C.; Carvalho, Eduardo J. Maklouf; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Davidson, Eric A.

2007-08-01

Access to water reserves in deep soil during drought periods determines whether or not the tropical moist forests of Amazonia will be buffered from the deleterious effects of water deficits. Changing climatic conditions are predicted to increase periods of drought in Amazonian forests and may lead to increased tree mortality, changes in forest composition, or greater susceptibility to fire. A throughfall reduction experiment has been established in the Tapajós National Forest of east-central Amazonia (Brazil) to test the potential effects of severe water stress during prolonged droughts. Using time domain reflectometry observations of water contents from this experiment, we have developed a dynamic, one-dimensional, vertical flow model to enhance our understanding of hydrologic processes within these tall-stature forests on well-drained, upland, deep Oxisols and to simulate changes in the distribution of soil water. Simulations using 960 days of data accurately captured mild soil water depletion near the surface after the first treatment year and decreasing soil moisture at depth during the second treatment year. The model is sensitive to the water retention and unsaturated flow equation parameters, specifically the van Genuchten parameters θs, θr, and n, but less sensitive to Ks and α. The low root-mean-square error between observed and predicted volumetric soil water content suggests that this vertical flow model captures the most important hydrologic processes in the upper landscape position of this study site. The model indicates that present rates of evapotranspiration within the exclusion plot have been sustained at the expense of soil water storage.

Evaluation of spatial models to predict vulnerability of forest birds to brood parasitism by cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustafson, E.J.; Knutson, M.G.; Niemi, G.J.; Friberg, M.

2002-01-01

We constructed alternative spatial models at two scales to predict Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism rates from land cover maps. The local-scale models tested competing hypotheses about the relationship between cowbird parasitism and distance of host nests from a forest edge (forest-nonforest boundary). The landscape models tested competing hypotheses about how landscape features (e.g., forests, agricultural fields) interact to determine rates of cowbird parasitism. The models incorporate spatial neighborhoods with a radius of 2.5 km in their formulation, reflecting the scale of the majority of cowbird commuting activity. Field data on parasitism by cowbirds (parasitism rate and number of cowbird eggs per nest) were collected at 28 sites in the Driftless Area Ecoregion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa and were compared to the predictions of the alternative models. At the local scale, there was a significant positive relationship between cowbird parasitism and mean distance of nest sites from the forest edge. At the landscape scale, the best fitting models were the forest-dependent and forest-fragmentation-dependent models, in which more heavily forested and less fragmented landscapes had higher parasitism rates. However, much of the explanatory power of these models results from the inclusion of the local-scale relationship in these models. We found lower rates of cowbird parasitism than did most Midwestern studies, and we identified landscape patterns of cowbird parasitism that are opposite to those reported in several other studies of Midwestern songbirds. We caution that cowbird parasitism patterns can be unpredictable, depending upon ecoregional location and the spatial extent, and that our models should be tested in other ecoregions before they are applied there. Our study confirms that cowbird biology has a strong spatial component, and that improved spatial models applied at multiple spatial scales will be required to predict the effects of landscape and forest management on cowbird parasitism of forest birds.

Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization.

PubMed

Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Nicault, Antoine; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Dorado-Liñán, Isabel; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Ribas, Montserrat; Guiot, Joel

2017-07-01

Forest performance is challenged by climate change but higher atmospheric [CO 2 ] (c a ) could help trees mitigate the negative effect of enhanced water stress. Forest projections using data assimilation with mechanistic models are a valuable tool to assess forest performance. Firstly, we used dendrochronological data from 12 Mediterranean tree species (six conifers and six broadleaves) to calibrate a process-based vegetation model at 77 sites. Secondly, we conducted simulations of gross primary production (GPP) and radial growth using an ensemble of climate projections for the period 2010-2100 for the high-emission RCP8.5 and low-emission RCP2.6 scenarios. GPP and growth projections were simulated using climatic data from the two RCPs combined with (i) expected c a ; (ii) constant c a  = 390 ppm, to test a purely climate-driven performance excluding compensation from carbon fertilization. The model accurately mimicked the growth trends since the 1950s when, despite increasing c a , enhanced evaporative demands precluded a global net positive effect on growth. Modeled annual growth and GPP showed similar long-term trends. Under RCP2.6 (i.e., temperatures below +2 °C with respect to preindustrial values), the forests showed resistance to future climate (as expressed by non-negative trends in growth and GPP) except for some coniferous sites. Using exponentially growing c a and climate as from RCP8.5, carbon fertilization overrode the negative effect of the highly constraining climatic conditions under that scenario. This effect was particularly evident above 500 ppm (which is already over +2 °C), which seems unrealistic and likely reflects model miss-performance at high c a above the calibration range. Thus, forest projections under RCP8.5 preventing carbon fertilization displayed very negative forest performance at the regional scale. This suggests that most of western Mediterranean forests would successfully acclimate to the coldest climate change scenario but be vulnerable to a climate warmer than +2 °C unless the trees developed an exaggerated fertilization response to [CO 2 ]. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using Atmosphere-Forest Measurements To Examine The Potential For Reduced Downwind Dose

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Viner, B.

2015-10-13

A 2-D dispersion model was developed to address how airborne plumes interact with the forest at Savannah River Site. Parameters describing turbulence and mixing of the atmosphere within and just above the forest were estimated using measurements of water vapor or carbon dioxide concentration made at the Aiken AmeriFlux tower for a range of stability and seasonal conditions. Stability periods when the greatest amount of mixing of an airborne plume into the forest were found for 1) very unstable environments, when atmospheric turbulence is usually at a maximum, and 2) very stable environments, when the plume concentration at the forestmore » top is at a maximum and small amounts of turbulent mixing can move a substantial portion of the plume into the forest. Plume interactions with the forest during stable periods are of particular importance because these conditions are usually considered the worst-case scenario for downwind effects from a plume. The pattern of plume mixing into the forest was similar during the year except during summer when the amount of plume mixed into the forest was nearly negligible for all but stable periods. If the model results indicating increased deposition into the forest during stable conditions can be confirmed, it would allow for a reduction in the limitations that restrict facility operations while maintaining conservative estimates for downwind effects. Continuing work is planned to confirm these results as well as estimate specific deposition velocity values for use in toolbox models used in regulatory roles.« less

Comparison of cropland and forest surface temperatures across the conterminous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate models (GCM) investigating the effects of land cover on climate have found that replacing extra-tropical forest with cropland promotes cooling. We compared cropland and forest surface temperatures across the continental United States in 16 cells that were approxim...

Returning fire to Ozark Highland forest ecosystems: Effects on advance regeneration

Treesearch

Daniel C. Dey; George Hartman

2005-01-01

In mature forests of the Ozark Highlands, MO, USA, we evaluated fire effects on the survival and growth of tree seedlings and saplings (i.e., advance regeneration), and used this information to develop species-specific models that predict the probability of survival based on initial tree size and number of times burned. A 1000 ha forest area was divided into five units...

Impact of Brexit on the forest products industry of the United Kingdom and the rest of the world

Treesearch

Craig M. T. Johnston; Joseph Buongiorno

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model was applied to forecast the effect of Brexit on the global forest products industry to2003 under two scenarios; an optimistic and pessimistic future storyline regarding the potential economic effect of Brexit. The forecasts integrated a range of gross domestic product growth rates using an average of the optimistic and...

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

PubMed

Seely, Brad; Welham, Clive; Scoullar, Kim

2015-01-01

Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.

Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Seely, Brad; Welham, Clive; Scoullar, Kim

2015-01-01

Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine) for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality. PMID:26267446

Feedbacks between Air-Quality, Meteorology, and the Forest Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makar, Paul; Akingunola, Ayodeji; Stroud, Craig; Zhang, Junhua; Gong, Wanmin; Moran, Michael; Zheng, Qiong; Brook, Jeffrey; Sills, David

2017-04-01

The outcome of air quality forecasts depend in part on how the local environment surrounding the emissions regions influences chemical reaction rates and transport from those regions to the larger spatial scales. Forested areas alter atmospheric chemistry through reducing photolysis rates and vertical diffusivities within the forest canopy. The emitted pollutants, and their reaction products, are in turn capable of altering meteorology, through the well-known direct and indirect effects of particulate matter on radiative transfer. The combination of these factors was examined using version 2 of the Global Environmental Multiscale - Modelling Air-quality and CHemistry (GEM-MACH) on-line air pollution model. The model configuration used for this study included 12 aerosol size bins, eight aerosol species, homogeneous core Mie scattering, the Milbrandt-Yao two-moment cloud microphysics scheme with cloud condensation nuclei generated from model aerosols using the scheme of Abdul-Razzak and Ghan, and a new parameterization for forest canopy shading and turbulence. The model was nested to 2.5km resolution for a domain encompassing the lower Great Lakes, for simulations of a period in August of 2015 during the Pan American Games, held in Toronto, Canada. Four scenarios were carried out: (1) a "Base Case" scenario (the original model, in which coupling between chemistry and weather is not permitted; instead, the meteorological model's internal climatologies for aerosol optical and cloud condensation properties are used for direct and indirect effect calculations); (2) a "Feedback" scenario (the aerosol properties were derived from the internally simulated chemistry, and coupled to the meteorological model's radiative transfer and cloud formation modules); (3) a "Forest" scenario (canopy shading and turbulence were added to the Base Case); (4) a "Combined" scenario (including both direct and indirect effect coupling between meteorology and chemistry, as well as the forest canopy parameterization). The simulations suggest that the feedbacks between simulated aerosols and meteorology may strengthen the existing lake breeze circulation, modifying the resulting meteorological and air-quality forecasts, while the forest canopy's influence may extend throughout the planetary boundary layer, and may also influence the weather. The simulations will be compared to available observations, in order to determine their relative impact on model performance.

Forest Management as an Element of Environment Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaszczak, Roman; Gołojuch, Piotr; Wajchman-Świtalska, Sandra; Miotke, Mariusz

2017-12-01

The implementation of goals of modern forestry requires a simultaneous consideration of sustainable development of forests, protection, needs of the environment development, as well as maintaining a balance between functions of forests. In the current multifunctional forest model, rational forest management assumes all of its tasks as equally important. Moreover, its effects are important factors in the nature and environment protection. The paper presents legal conditions related to the definitions of forest management concepts and sustainable forest management. Authors present a historical outline of human's impact on the forest and its consequences for the environment. The selected aspects of forest management (eg. forest utilization, afforestation, tourism and recreation) and their role in the forest environment have been discussed.

Simulating the onset of spring vegetation growth across the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H; Liu, Yongwen; Janssens, Ivan A; Piao, Shilong

2018-03-01

Changes in the spring onset of vegetation growth in response to climate change can profoundly impact climate-biosphere interactions. Thus, robust simulation of spring onset is essential to accurately predict ecosystem responses and feedback to ongoing climate change. To date, the ability of vegetation phenology models to reproduce spatiotemporal patterns of spring onset at larger scales has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we took advantage of phenology observations via remote sensing to calibrate and evaluated six models, including both one-phase (considering only forcing temperatures) and two-phase (involving forcing, chilling, and photoperiod) models across the Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2012. Overall, we found that the model that integrated the photoperiod effect performed best at capturing spatiotemporal patterns of spring phenology in boreal and temperate forests. By contrast, all of the models performed poorly in simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. These results suggest that the photoperiod plays a role in controlling the onset of growth in most Northern Hemisphere forests, whereas other environmental factors (e.g., precipitation) should be considered when simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. We also found that the one-phase model performed as well as the two-phase models in boreal forests, which implies that the chilling requirement is probably fulfilled across most of the boreal zone. Conversely, two-phase models performed better in temperate forests than the one-phase model, suggesting that photoperiod and chilling play important roles in these temperate forests. Our results highlight the significance of including chilling and photoperiod effects in models of the spring onset of forest growth at large scales, and indicate that the consideration of additional drivers may be required for grasslands. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Carbon tradeoffs of restoration and provision of endangered species habitat in a fire-maintained forest

Treesearch

Katherine L. Martin; Matthew D. Hurteau; Bruce A. Hungate; George W. Koch; Malcolm P. North

2015-01-01

Forests are a significant part of the global carbon cycle and are increasingly viewed as tools for mitigating climate change. Natural disturbances, such as fire, can reduce carbon storage. However, many forests and dependent species evolved with frequent fire as an integral ecosystem process. We used a landscape forest simulation model to evaluate the effects of...

View Angle Effects on MODIS Snow Mapping in Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xin, Qinchuan; Woodcock, Curtis E.; Liu, Jicheng; Tan, Bin; Melloh, Rae A.; Davis, Robert E.

2012-01-01

Binary snow maps and fractional snow cover data are provided routinely from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). This paper investigates how the wide observation angles of MODIS influence the current snow mapping algorithm in forested areas. Theoretical modeling results indicate that large view zenith angles (VZA) can lead to underestimation of fractional snow cover (FSC) by reducing the amount of the ground surface that is viewable through forest canopies, and by increasing uncertainties during the gridding of MODIS data. At the end of the MODIS scan line, the total modeled error can be as much as 50% for FSC. Empirical analysis of MODIS/Terra snow products in four forest sites shows high fluctuation in FSC estimates on consecutive days. In addition, the normalized difference snow index (NDSI) values, which are the primary input to the MODIS snow mapping algorithms, decrease as VZA increases at the site level. At the pixel level, NDSI values have higher variances, and are correlated with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in snow covered forests. These findings are consistent with our modeled results, and imply that consideration of view angle effects could improve MODIS snow monitoring in forested areas.

Simulating tropical carbon stocks and fluxes in a changing world using an individual-based forest model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Rico; Huth, Andreas

2014-05-01

Large areas of tropical forests are disturbed due to climate change and human influence. Experts estimate that the last remaining rainforests could be destroyed in less than 100 years with strong consequences for both developing and industrial countries. Using a modelling approach we analyse how disturbances modify carbon stocks and carbon fluxes of African rainforests. In this study we use the process-based, individual-oriented forest model FORMIND. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration and competition. The study regions are tropical rainforests in the Kilimanjaro region and Madagascar. Modelling above and below ground carbon stocks, we analyze the impact of disturbances and climate change on forest dynamics and forest carbon stocks. Droughts and fire events change the structure of tropical rainforests. Human influence like logging intensify this effect. With the presented results we could establish new allometric relationships between forest variables and above ground carbon stocks in tropical regions. Using remote sensing techniques, these relationships would offer the possibility for a global monitoring of the above ground carbon stored in the vegetation.

Varying effects of geomorphic change on floodplain inundation and forest communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keim, R.; Johnson, E. L.; Edwards, B. L.; King, S. L.; Hupp, C. R.

2015-12-01

Overbank flooding in floodplains is an important control on vegetation, but effects of changing flooding are difficult to predict because sensitivities of plant communities to multidimensional flooding (frequency, depth, duration, and timing) are not well understood. We used HEC-RAS to model the changing flooding regime in the lower White River floodplain, Arkansas, in response to rapid incision of the Mississippi River in the 1930s, and quantified flood frequency, depth, and duration by forest community type. Incision has decreased flooding especially in terms of frequency, which is one of the most important variables for ecological processes. Modeled depth-duration curves varied more among floodplain reaches than among forest communities within the same reach, but forest communities are now arranged in accordance with new flood regimes in place after river incision. Forest responses to subtle geomorphic change are slower than other vegetation communities, so detection of the full ramifications of ecohydrologic change may require decades.

An integrated land change model for projecting future climate and land change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wimberly, Michael; Sohl, Terry L.; Lamsal, Aashis; Liu, Zhihua; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have myriad effects on ecosystems worldwide, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances will be key drivers of these dynamics. In addition to climatic effects, continual expansion of human settlement into fire-prone forests will alter fire regimes, increase human vulnerability, and constrain future forest management options. There is a need for modeling tools to support the simulation and assessment of new management strategies over large regions in the context of changing climate, shifting development patterns, and an expanding wildland-urban interface. To address this need, we developed a prototype land change simulator that combines human-driven land use change (derived from the FORE-SCE model) with natural disturbances and vegetation dynamics (derived from the LADS model) and incorporates novel feedbacks between human land use and disturbance regimes. The prototype model was implemented in a test region encompassing the Denver metropolitan area along with its surrounding forested and agricultural landscapes. Initial results document the feasibility of integrated land change modeling at a regional scale but also highlighted conceptual and technical challenges for this type of model integration. Ongoing development will focus on improving climate sensitivities and modeling constraints imposed by climate change and human population growth on forest management activities.

PROJECTION OF RESPONSE OF TREES AND FORESTS TO ACIDIC DEPOSITION AND ASSOCIATED POLLUTANTS

EPA Science Inventory

In 1986 the National, Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) established the Forest Response Program (FRP) to assess the effects of acidic deposition and associated pollutants on forests. Modeling studies were developed in parallel with both field studies on the pattern an...

Modeling some long-term implications of CO2 fertilization for global forests and forest industries

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno

2015-01-01

Background: This paper explored the long-term, ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the globalforest sector. Based on the findings of Norby et al. (PNAS 2005, 102(50)) about forest response to elevated [CO2].Methods:...

Describing the conditions of forest ecosystems using disturbance profiles

Treesearch

John E. Lundquist; J. P. Ward

1995-01-01

Data from a study on the effect of small-scale disturbances on small mammal prey of the Mexican spotted owl illustrates how spatial models of canopy cover and disturbance profiles of forest stands might be used to define forest stand condition and develop silvicultural prescriptions.

Estimating Forest Species Composition Using a Multi-Sensor Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolter, P. T.

2009-12-01

The magnitude, duration, and frequency of forest disturbance caused by the spruce budworm and forest tent caterpillar has increased over the last century due to a shift in forest species composition linked to historical fire suppression, forest management, and pesticide application that has fostered the increase in dominance of host tree species. Modeling approaches are currently being used to understand and forecast potential management effects in changing insect disturbance trends. However, detailed forest composition data needed for these efforts is often lacking. Here, we used partial least squares (PLS) regression to integrate satellite sensor data from Landsat, Radarsat-1, and PALSAR, as well as pixel-wise forest structure information derived from SPOT-5 sensor data (Wolter et al. 2009), to estimate species-level forest composition of 12 species required for modeling efforts. C-band Radarsat-1 data and L-band PALSAR data were frequently among the strongest predictors of forest composition. Pixel-level forest structure data were more important for estimating conifer rather than hardwood forest composition. The coefficients of determination for species relative basal area (RBA) ranged from 0.57 (white cedar) to 0.94 (maple) with RMSE of 8.88 to 6.44 % RBA, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the effective lower limits of usefulness of species RBA estimates which ranged from 5.94 % (jack pine) to 39.41 % (black ash). These estimates were then used to produce a dominant forest species map for the study region with an overall accuracy of 78 %. Most notably, this approach facilitated discrimination of aspen from birch as well as spruce and fir from other conifer species which is crucial for the study of forest tent caterpillar and spruce budworm dynamics, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. Thus, use of PLS regression as a data fusion strategy has proven to be an effective tool for regional characterization of forest composition within spatially heterogeneous forests using large-format satellite sensor data.

Spatial and temporal behavioural responses of wild cattle to tropical forest degradation

PubMed Central

Goossens, Benoît; Goon Ee Wern, Jocelyn; Kretzschmar, Petra; Bohm, Torsten; Vaughan, Ian P.

2018-01-01

Identifying the consequences of tropical forest degradation is essential to mitigate its effects upon forest fauna. Large forest-dwelling mammals are often highly sensitive to environmental perturbation through processes such as fragmentation, simplification of habitat structure, and abiotic changes including increased temperatures where the canopy is cleared. Whilst previous work has focused upon species richness and rarity in logged forest, few look at spatial and temporal behavioural responses to forest degradation. Using camera traps, we explored the relationships between diel activity, behavioural expression, habitat use and ambient temperature to understand how the wild free-ranging Bornean banteng (Bos javanicus lowi) respond to logging and regeneration. Three secondary forests in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo were studied, varying in the time since last logging (6–23 years). A combination of generalised linear mixed models and generalised linear models were constructed using >36,000 trap-nights. Temperature had no significant effect on activity, however it varied markedly between forests, with the period of intense heat shortening as forest regeneration increased over the years. Bantengs regulated activity, with a reduction during the wet season in the most degraded forest (z = -2.6, Std. Error = 0.13, p = 0.01), and reductions during midday hours in forest with limited regeneration, however after >20 years of regrowth, activity was more consistent throughout the day. Foraging and use of open canopy areas dominated the activity budget when regeneration was limited. As regeneration advanced, this was replaced by greater investment in travelling and using a closed canopy. Forest degradation modifies the ambient temperature, and positively influences flooding and habitat availability during the wet season. Retention of a mosaic of mature forest patches within commercial forests could minimise these effects and also provide refuge, which is key to heat dissipation and the prevention of thermal stress, whilst retention of degraded forest could provide forage. PMID:29649279

Modeling the effects of fire on the long-term dynamics and restoration of yellow pine and oak forests in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

Treesearch

Charles W. Lafon; John D. Waldron; David M. Cairns; Maria D. Tchakerian; Robert N. Coulson; Kier D. Klepzig

2007-01-01

We used LANDIS, a model of forest disturbance and succession, to simulate successional dynamics of forests in the southern Appalachian Mountains. The simulated environments are based on the Great Smoky Mountains landscapes studied by Whittaker. We focused on the consequences of two contrasting disturbance regimes—fire exclusion versus frequent burning—for the Yellow...

The impacts of tropical cyclones on the net carbon balance of eastern US forests (1851-2000)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K. A.; Negrón-Juárez, R. I.

2013-12-01

In temperate forests of the eastern US, tropical cyclones are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial progress has been made to quantify forest damage and resulting gross carbon emissions from tropical cyclones. However, the net effect of storms on the carbon balance of forests depends not only on the biomass lost in single events, but also on the uptake during recovery from a mosaic of past events. This study estimates the net impacts of tropical cyclones on the carbon balance of US forests over the period 1851-2000. To track both disturbance and recovery and to isolate the effects of storms, a modeling framework is used combining gridded historical estimates of mortality and damage with a mechanistic model using an ensemble approach. The net effect of tropical cyclones on the carbon balance is shown to depend strongly on the spatial and temporal scales of analysis. On average, tropical cyclones contribute a net carbon source over latter half of the 19th century. However, throughout much of the 20th century a regional carbon sink is estimated resulting from periods of forest recovery exceeding damage. The large-scale net annual flux resulting from tropical cyclones varies by up to 50 Tg C yr-1, an amount equivalent to 17%-36% of the US forest carbon sink.

Effects of harvest on carbon and nitrogen dynamics in a Pacific Northwest forest catchment

Treesearch

Alex Abdelnour; Robert B. McKane; Marc Stieglitz; Feifei Pan; Yiwei Cheng

2013-01-01

We used a new ecohydrological model, Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments (VELMA), to analyze the effects of forest harvest on catchment carbon and nitrogen dynamics. We applied the model to a 10 ha headwater catchment in the western Oregon Cascade Range where two major disturbance events have occurred during the past 500 years: a stand-replacing fire...

Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds.

PubMed

Börger, Luca; Nudds, Thomas D

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000-2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: Ring-necked Duck (Aythya collaris) decreased, and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997-1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: Fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements, or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest-harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over timescales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all 84 waterbird species breeding on the Ontario Boreal Shield, however, suggested that up to 30 species may instead have altered (short-term) distribution dynamics due to forestry practices. Hence, natural disturbances are critical components of the ecology of the boreal forest and forest practices which aim to approximate them may succeed in allowing the maintenance of the associated species, but improved monitoring and modeling of large-scale boreal forest bird distribution dynamics will be necessary to resolve existing uncertainties, especially on less-common species.

Use of airborne lidar data to improve plant species richness and diversity monitoring in lowland and mountain forests

PubMed Central

Durrieu, Sylvie; Gosselin, Frédéric; Herpigny, Basile

2017-01-01

We explored the potential of airborne laser scanner (ALS) data to improve Bayesian models linking biodiversity indicators of the understory vegetation to environmental factors. Biodiversity was studied at plot level and models were built to investigate species abundance for the most abundant plants found on each study site, and for ecological group richness based on light preference. The usual abiotic explanatory factors related to climate, topography and soil properties were used in the models. ALS data, available for two contrasting study sites, were used to provide biotic factors related to forest structure, which was assumed to be a key driver of understory biodiversity. Several ALS variables were found to have significant effects on biodiversity indicators. However, the responses of biodiversity indicators to forest structure variables, as revealed by the Bayesian model outputs, were shown to be dependent on the abiotic environmental conditions characterizing the study areas. Lower responses were observed on the lowland site than on the mountainous site. In the latter, shade-tolerant and heliophilous species richness was impacted by vegetation structure indicators linked to light penetration through the canopy. However, to reveal the full effects of forest structure on biodiversity indicators, forest structure would need to be measured over much wider areas than the plot we assessed. It seems obvious that the forest structure surrounding the field plots can impact biodiversity indicators measured at plot level. Various scales were found to be relevant depending on: the biodiversity indicators that were modelled, and the ALS variable. Finally, our results underline the utility of lidar data in abundance and richness models to characterize forest structure with variables that are difficult to measure in the field, either due to their nature or to the size of the area they relate to. PMID:28902920

Adapting forest management to climate change using bioclimate models with topographic drivers

Treesearch

Gerald E. Rehfeldt; James J. Worrall; Suzanne B. Marchetti; Nicholas L. Crookston

2015-01-01

Bioclimate models incorporating topographic predictors as surrogates for microclimate effects are developed for Populus tremuloides and Picea engelmannii to provide the fine-grained specificity to local terrain required for adapting management of three Colorado (USA) national forests (1.28 million ha) and their periphery to climate change. Models were built with the...

Modeling Japan-South Seas trade in forest products.

Treesearch

J.R. Vincent

1987-01-01

The international trade of forest products has generated increasing research interest, yet experience with modeling such trade is limited. Primary issues include the effects of trade barriers and exchange rates on trade patterns and national welfare. This paper attempts to add to experience by modeling hardwood log, lumber, and plywood trade in a region that has been...

Modeling Alaska boreal forests with a controlled trend surface approach

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Jingjing Liang

2012-01-01

An approach of Controlled Trend Surface was proposed to simultaneously take into consideration large-scale spatial trends and nonspatial effects. A geospatial model of the Alaska boreal forest was developed from 446 permanent sample plots, which addressed large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of...

BIOGENIC HYDROCARBON EMISSION INVENTORY FOR THE U.S. USING A SIMPLE FOREST CANOPY MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A biogenic hydrocarbon emission inventory system, developed for acid deposition and regional oxidant modeling, is described, and results for a U.S. emission inventory are presented. or deciduous and coniferous forests, scaling relationships are used to account for canopy effects ...

Predicting the effects of tropospheric ozone on regional productivity of ponderosa pine and white fir.

Treesearch

D.A. Weinstein; J.A. Laurence; W.A. Retzlaff; J.S. Kern; E.H. Lee; W.E. Hogsett; J. Weber

2005-01-01

We simulated forest dynamics of the regional ponderosa pine-white fir conifer forest of the San Bernadino and Sierra Nevada mountains of California to determine the effects of high ozone concentrations over the next century and to compare the responses to our similar study for loblolly pine forests of the southeast. As in the earlier study, we linked two models, TREGRO...

Assessing Canada's Forest Carbon Sinks from 1901 TO 2008 BY Combining Inventory with Climate Data (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, J. M.; Wu, C.; Gonsamo, A.; Kurz, W.; Hember, R.; Price, D. T.; Boisvenue, C.; Zhang, F.; Chang, K.

2013-12-01

The forest carbon cycle is not only controlled by climate, tree species and site conditions, but also by disturbance affecting the biomass and age of forest stands. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian forest sector (CBM-CFS3) calculates the complete forest carbon cycle by combining forest inventory data on forest species, biomass and stand age with empirical yield information and statistics on forest disturbances, management and land-use change. It is used for national reporting and climate policy purposes. The Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon model (InTEC) is driven by remotely-sensed vegetation parameters (forest type, leaf area index, clumping index) and fire scar, soil and climate data and simulates forest growth and the carbon cycle as a function of stand age using a process-based approach. Gridded forest biomass, stand age and disturbance data based on forest inventory are also used as inputs to InTEC. Efforts are being made to enhance the CBM-CFS3's capacity to assess the impacts of global change on the forest carbon budget by utilizing InTEC process modeling methodology. For this purpose, InTEC is first implemented on 3432 permanent sampling plots in coastal and interior BC, and it is found that climate warming explained 70% and 75% of forest growth enhancement over the period from 1956 to 2001 in coastal and interior BC, respectively, and the remainder is attributed to CO2 and nitrogen fertilization effects. The growth enhancement, in terms of the increase in the stemwood accumulation rate after adjusting for the stand age effect, is about 24% for both areas over the same period. To assess the impact of climate change on the forest carbon cycle across Canada, polygon-based CBM and gridded InTEC results are aggregated to 60 reconciliation units (RU), and their interannual variabilities over the period from 1990 to 2008 are compared in each RU. CBM results show interannual variability in response to forest disturbance, while InTEC results show larger interannual variability because it is affected by both disturbance and climate. The impact of climate at the RU level is generally positive (increased sink) due to warming, but sometimes negative due to water stress. Averaged over Canada, climate warming induced a longer growing season by about one week from 1901 to 2008, enhancing the annual forest carbon sink by about 42×30 TgC y-1 over the period from 1990 to 2008, while CO2 and nitrogen fertilization effects each also contributed about the same amount to Canada's forest carbon sink.

Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Flint, Alan; Das, Tapash; van Mantgem, Phillip J.

2013-01-01

Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1) drought stress, or (2) the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation) forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation) forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests.

PubMed

Das, Adrian J; Stephenson, Nathan L; Flint, Alan; Das, Tapash; van Mantgem, Phillip J

2013-01-01

Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1) drought stress, or (2) the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California's Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation) forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation) forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

Climatic Correlates of Tree Mortality in Water- and Energy-Limited Forests

PubMed Central

Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Flint, Alan; Das, Tapash; van Mantgem, Phillip J.

2013-01-01

Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1) drought stress, or (2) the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation) forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation) forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes. PMID:23936118

Ozone-induced stomatal sluggishness changes carbon and water balance of temperate deciduous forests.

PubMed

Hoshika, Yasutomo; Katata, Genki; Deushi, Makoto; Watanabe, Makoto; Koike, Takayoshi; Paoletti, Elena

2015-05-06

Tropospheric ozone concentrations have increased by 60-100% in the Northern Hemisphere since the 19(th) century. The phytotoxic nature of ozone can impair forest productivity. In addition, ozone affects stomatal functions, by both favoring stomatal closure and impairing stomatal control. Ozone-induced stomatal sluggishness, i.e., a delay in stomatal responses to fluctuating stimuli, has the potential to change the carbon and water balance of forests. This effect has to be included in models for ozone risk assessment. Here we examine the effects of ozone-induced stomatal sluggishness on carbon assimilation and transpiration of temperate deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere in 2006-2009 by combining a detailed multi-layer land surface model and a global atmospheric chemistry model. An analysis of results by ozone FACE (Free-Air Controlled Exposure) experiments suggested that ozone-induced stomatal sluggishness can be incorporated into modelling based on a simple parameter (gmin, minimum stomatal conductance) which is used in the coupled photosynthesis-stomatal model. Our simulation showed that ozone can decrease water use efficiency, i.e., the ratio of net CO2 assimilation to transpiration, of temperate deciduous forests up to 20% when ozone-induced stomatal sluggishness is considered, and up to only 5% when the stomatal sluggishness is neglected.

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Overview of global climate change and carbon sequestration

Treesearch

Kurt Johnsen

2004-01-01

The potential influence of global climate change on southern forests is uncertain. Outputs of climate change models differ considerably in their projections for precipitation and other variables that affect forests. Forest responses, particularly effects on competition among species, are difficult to assess. Even the responses of relatively simple ecosystems, such as...

OptFuels: Fuel treatment optimization

Treesearch

Greg Jones

2011-01-01

Scientists at the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, in Missoula, MT, in collaboration with scientists at the University of Montana, are developing a tool to help forest managers prioritize forest fuel reduction treatments. Although several computer models analyze fuels and fire behavior, stand-level effects of fuel treatments, and priority planning...

Research agenda for integrated landscape modeling

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Donald McKenzie; David L. Peterson; Jeremy Littell; Kevin S. McKelvey

2007-01-01

Reliable predictions of how changing climate and disturbance regimes will affect forest ecosystems are crucial for effective forest management. Current fire and climate research in forest ecosystem and community ecology offers data and methods that can inform such predictions. However, research in these fields occurs at different scales, with disparate goals, methods,...

Estimating cumulative effects of clearcutting on stream temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, J.M.

2000-01-01

The Stream Segment Temperature Model was used to estimate cumulative effects of large-scale timber harvest on stream temperature. Literature values were used to create parameters for the model for two hypothetical situations, one forested and the other extensively clearcut. Results compared favorably with field studies of extensive forest canopy removal. The model provided insight into the cumulative effects of clearcutting. Change in stream shading was, as expected, the most influential factor governing increases in maximum daily water temperature, accounting for 40% of the total increase. Altered stream width was found to be more influential than changes to air temperature. Although the net effect from clearcutting was a 4oC warming, increased wind and reduced humidity tended to cool the stream. Temperature increases due to clearcutting persisted 10 km downstream into an unimpacted forest segment of the hypothetical stream, but those increases were moderated by cooler equilibrium conditions downstream. The model revealed that it is a complex set of factors, not single factors such as shade or air temperature, that governs stream temperature dynamics.

Forest canopy height estimation using double-frequency repeat pass interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamvasis, Kleanthis; Karathanassi, Vassilia

2015-06-01

In recent years, many efforts have been made in order to assess forest stand parameters from remote sensing data, as a mean to estimate the above-ground carbon stock of forests in the context of the Kyoto protocol. Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) techniques have gained traction in last decade as a viable technology for vegetation parameter estimation. Many works have shown that forest canopy height, which is a critical parameter for quantifying the terrestrial carbon cycle, can be estimated with InSAR. However, research is still needed to understand further the interaction of SAR signals with forest canopy and to develop an operational method for forestry applications. This work discusses the use of repeat pass interferometry with ALOS PALSAR (L band) HH polarized and COSMO Skymed (X band) HH polarized acquisitions over the Taxiarchis forest (Chalkidiki, Greece), in order to produce accurate digital elevation models (DEMs) and estimate canopy height with interferometric processing. The effect of wavelength-dependent penetration depth into the canopy is known to be strong, and could potentially lead to forest canopy height mapping using dual-wavelength SAR interferometry at X- and L-band. The method is based on scattering phase center separation at different wavelengths. It involves the generation of a terrain elevation model underneath the forest canopy from repeat-pass L-band InSAR data as well as the generation of a canopy surface elevation model from repeat pass X-band InSAR data. The terrain model is then used to remove the terrain component from the repeat pass interferometric X-band elevation model, so as to enable the forest canopy height estimation. The canopy height results were compared to a field survey with 6.9 m root mean square error (RMSE). The effects of vegetation characteristics, SAR incidence angle and view geometry, and terrain slope on the accuracy of the results have also been studied in this work.

Modeling trade-offs between fire threat reduction and late-seral forest structure.

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Susan Stevens Hummel; James K. Agee

2005-01-01

Evaluating the effects of managing for one forest resource in terms of associated impacts on other resources is not easy. Yet methods to identify potential trade-offs among forest resources are necessary to inform people about the implications of management options on public land. This paper uses a case study from a forest reserve in the northwestern United States to...

Predicting live and dead tree basal area of bark beetle affected forests from discrete-return lidar

Treesearch

Benjamin C. Bright; Andrew T. Hudak; Robert McGaughey; Hans-Erik Andersen; Jose Negron

2013-01-01

Bark beetle outbreaks have killed large numbers of trees across North America in recent years. Lidar remote sensing can be used to effectively estimate forest biomass, but prediction of both live and dead standing biomass in beetle-affected forests using lidar alone has not been demonstrated. We developed Random Forest (RF) models predicting total, live, dead, and...

Valuing the Recreational Benefits from the Creation of Nature Reserves in Irish Forests

Treesearch

Riccardo Scarpa; Susan M. Chilton; W. George Hutchinson; Joseph Buongiorno

2000-01-01

Data from a large-scale contingent valuation study are used to investigate the effects of forest attribum on willingness to pay for forest recreation in Ireland. In particular, the presence of a nature reserve in the forest is found to significantly increase the visitors' willingness to pay. A random utility model is used to estimate the welfare change associated...

Multiplicative Forests for Continuous-Time Processes

PubMed Central

Weiss, Jeremy C.; Natarajan, Sriraam; Page, David

2013-01-01

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability. PMID:25284967

Multiplicative Forests for Continuous-Time Processes.

PubMed

Weiss, Jeremy C; Natarajan, Sriraam; Page, David

2012-01-01

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability.

36 CFR 230.5 - Ranking criteria and proposal selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., and wildlife habitat; (iii) Benefits from forest-based experiential learning, including K-12... from serving as replicable models of effective forest stewardship for private landowners; and (v...

36 CFR 230.5 - Ranking criteria and proposal selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., and wildlife habitat; (iii) Benefits from forest-based experiential learning, including K-12... from serving as replicable models of effective forest stewardship for private landowners; and (v...

36 CFR 230.5 - Ranking criteria and proposal selection.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., and wildlife habitat; (iii) Benefits from forest-based experiential learning, including K-12... from serving as replicable models of effective forest stewardship for private landowners; and (v...

Effects of DEM source and resolution on WEPP hydrologic and erosion simulation: A case study of two forest watersheds in northern Idaho

Treesearch

J. X. Zhang; J. Q. Wu; K. Chang; W. J. Elliot; S. Dun

2009-01-01

The recent modification of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model has improved its applicability to hydrology and erosion modeling in forest watersheds. To generate reliable topographic and hydrologic inputs for the WEPP model, carefully selecting digital elevation models (DEMs) with appropriate resolution and accuracy is essential because topography is a...

Forests tend to cool the land surface in the temperate zone: An analysis of the mechanisms controlling radiometric surface temperature change in managed temperate ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoy, P. C.; Katul, G. G.; Juang, J.; Siqueira, M. B.; Novick, K. A.; Essery, R.; Dore, S.; Kolb, T. E.; Montes-Helu, M. C.; Scott, R. L.

2010-12-01

Vegetation is an important control on the surface energy balance and thereby surface temperature. Boreal forests and arctic shrubs are thought to warm the land surface by absorbing more radiation than the vegetation they replace. The surface temperatures of tropical forests tend to be cooler than deforested landscapes due to enhanced evapotranspiration. The effects of reforestation on surface temperature change in the temperate zone is less-certain, but recent modeling efforts suggest forests have a global warming effect. We quantified the mechanisms driving radiometric surface changes following landcover changes using paired ecosystem case studies from the Ameriflux database with energy balance models of varying complexity. Results confirm previous findings that deciduous and coniferous forests in the southeastern U.S. are ca. 1 °C cooler than an adjacent field on an annual basis because aerodynamic/ecophysiological cooling of 2-3 °C outweighs an albedo-related warming of <1 °C. A 50-70% reduction in the aerodynamic resistance to sensible and latent heat exchange in the forests dominated the cooling effect. A grassland ecosystem that succeeded a stand-replacing ponderosa pine fire was ca. 1 °C warmer than unburned stands because a 1.5 °C aerodynamic warming offset a slight surface cooling due to greater albedo and soil heat flux. An ecosystem dominated by mesquite shrub encroachment was nearly 2 °C warmer than a native grassland ecosystem as aerodynamic and albedo-related warming outweighed a small cooling effect due to changes in soil heat flux. The forested ecosystems in these case studies are documented to have higher carbon uptake than the non-forested systems. Results suggest that temperate forests tend to cool the land surface and suggest that previous model-based findings that forests warm the Earth’s surface globally should be reconsidered.Changes to radiometric surface temperature (K) following changes in vegetation using paired ecosystem case studies C4 grassland and shrub ecosystem surface temperatures were adjusted for differences in air temperature across sites.

Modelling forest canopy height by integrating airborne LiDAR samples with satellite Radar and multispectral imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García, Mariano; Saatchi, Sassan; Ustin, Susan; Balzter, Heiko

2018-04-01

Spatially-explicit information on forest structure is paramount to estimating aboveground carbon stocks for designing sustainable forest management strategies and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. LiDAR measurements provide samples of forest structure that must be integrated with satellite imagery to predict and to map landscape scale variations of forest structure. Here we evaluate the capability of existing satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) with multispectral data to estimate forest canopy height over five study sites across two biomes in North America, namely temperate broadleaf and mixed forests and temperate coniferous forests. Pixel size affected the modelling results, with an improvement in model performance as pixel resolution coarsened from 25 m to 100 m. Likewise, the sample size was an important factor in the uncertainty of height prediction using the Support Vector Machine modelling approach. Larger sample size yielded better results but the improvement stabilised when the sample size reached approximately 10% of the study area. We also evaluated the impact of surface moisture (soil and vegetation moisture) on the modelling approach. Whereas the impact of surface moisture had a moderate effect on the proportion of the variance explained by the model (up to 14%), its impact was more evident in the bias of the models with bias reaching values up to 4 m. Averaging the incidence angle corrected radar backscatter coefficient (γ°) reduced the impact of surface moisture on the models and improved their performance at all study sites, with R2 ranging between 0.61 and 0.82, RMSE between 2.02 and 5.64 and bias between 0.02 and -0.06, respectively, at 100 m spatial resolution. An evaluation of the relative importance of the variables in the model performance showed that for the study sites located within the temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome ALOS-PALSAR HV polarised backscatter was the most important variable, with Landsat Tasselled Cap Transformation components barely contributing to the models for two of the study sites whereas it had a significant contribution at the third one. Over the temperate conifer forests, Landsat Tasselled Cap variables contributed more than the ALOS-PALSAR HV band to predict the landscape height variability. In all cases, incorporation of multispectral data improved the retrieval of forest canopy height and reduced the estimation uncertainty for tall forests. Finally, we concluded that models trained at one study site had higher uncertainty when applied to other sites, but a model developed from multiple sites performed equally to site-specific models to predict forest canopy height. This result suggest that a biome level model developed from several study sites can be used as a reliable estimator of biome-level forest structure from existing satellite imagery.

Association of extinction risk of saproxylic beetles with ecological degradation of forests in Europe.

PubMed

Seibold, Sebastian; Brandl, Roland; Buse, Jörn; Hothorn, Torsten; Schmidl, Jürgen; Thorn, Simon; Müller, Jörg

2015-04-01

To reduce future loss of biodiversity and to allocate conservation funds effectively, the major drivers behind large-scale extinction processes must be identified. A promising approach is to link the red-list status of species and specific traits that connect species of functionally important taxa or guilds to resources they rely on. Such traits can be used to detect the influence of anthropogenic ecosystem changes and conservation efforts on species, which allows for practical recommendations for conservation. We modeled the German Red List categories as an ordinal index of extinction risk of 1025 saproxylic beetles with a proportional-odds linear mixed-effects model for ordered categorical responses. In this model, we estimated fixed effects for intrinsic traits characterizing species biology, required resources, and distribution with phylogenetically correlated random intercepts. The model also allowed predictions of extinction risk for species with no red-list category. Our model revealed a higher extinction risk for lowland and large species as well as for species that rely on wood of large diameter, broad-leaved trees, or open canopy. These results mirror well the ecological degradation of European forests over the last centuries caused by modern forestry, that is the conversion of natural broad-leaved forests to dense conifer-dominated forests and the loss of old growth and dead wood. Therefore, conservation activities aimed at saproxylic beetles in all types of forests in Central and Western Europe should focus on lowlands, and habitat management of forest stands should aim at increasing the amount of dead wood of large diameter, dead wood of broad-leaved trees, and dead wood in sunny areas. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Divergence of dominant factors in soil microbial communities and functions in forest ecosystems along a climatic gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiwei; Yu, Guirui; Zhang, Xinyu; He, Nianpeng; Wang, Qiufeng; Wang, Shengzhong; Xu, Xiaofeng; Wang, Ruili; Zhao, Ning

2018-03-01

Soil microorganisms play an important role in regulating nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Most of the studies conducted thus far have been confined to a single forest biome or have focused on one or two controlling factors, and few have dealt with the integrated effects of climate, vegetation, and soil substrate availability on soil microbial communities and functions among different forests. In this study, we used phospholipid-derived fatty acid (PLFA) analysis to investigate soil microbial community structure and extracellular enzymatic activities to evaluate the functional potential of soil microbes of different types of forests in three different climatic zones along the north-south transect in eastern China (NSTEC). Both climate and forest type had significant effects on soil enzyme activities and microbial communities with considerable interactive effects. Except for soil acid phosphatase (AP), the other three enzyme activities were much higher in the warm temperate zone than in the temperate and the subtropical climate zones. The soil total PLFAs and bacteria were much higher in the temperate zone than in the warm temperate and the subtropical zones. The soil β-glucosidase (BG) and N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) activities were highest in the coniferous forest. Except for the soil fungi and fungi-bacteria (F/B), the different groups of microbial PLFAs were much higher in the conifer broad-leaved mixed forests than in the coniferous forests and the broad-leaved forests. In general, soil enzyme activities and microbial PLFAs were higher in primary forests than in secondary forests in temperate and warm temperate regions. In the subtropical region, soil enzyme activities were lower in the primary forests than in the secondary forests and microbial PLFAs did not differ significantly between primary and secondary forests. Different compositions of the tree species may cause variations in soil microbial communities and enzyme activities. Our results showed that the main controls on soil microbes and functions vary in different climatic zones and that the effects of soil moisture content, soil temperature, clay content, and the soil N / P ratio were considerable. This information will add value to the modeling of microbial processes and will contribute to carbon cycling in large-scale carbon models.

Simulating the Effects of Fire on Forests in the Russian Far East: Integrating a Fire Danger Model and the FAREAST Forest Growth Model Across a Complex Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherman, N. J.; Loboda, T.; Sun, G.; Shugart, H. H.; Csiszar, I.

2008-12-01

The remaining natural habitat of the critically endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) and Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) is a vast, biologically and topographically diverse area in the Russian Far East (RFE). Although wildland fire is a natural component of ecosystem functioning in the RFE, severe or repeated fires frequently re-set the process of forest succession, which may take centuries to return the affected forests to the pre-fire state and thus significantly alters habitat quality and long-term availability. The frequency of severe fire events has increased over the last 25 years, leading to irreversible modifications of some parts of the species' habitats. Moreover, fire regimes are expected to continue to change toward more frequent and severe events under the influence of climate change. Here we present an approach to developing capabilities for a comprehensive assessment of potential Amur tiger and leopard habitat availability throughout the 21st century by integrating regionally parameterized fire danger and forest growth models. The FAREAST model is an individual, gap-based model that simulates forest growth in a single location and demonstrates temporally explicit forest succession leading to mature forests. Including spatially explicit information on probabilities of fire occurrence at 1 km resolution developed from the regionally specific remotely -sensed data-driven fire danger model improves our ability to provide realistic long-term projections of potential forest composition in the RFE. This work presents the first attempt to merge the FAREAST model with a fire disturbance model, to validate its outputs across a large region, and to compare it to remotely-sensed data products as well as in situ assessments of forest structure. We ran the FAREAST model at 1,000 randomly selected points within forested areas in the RFE. At each point, the model was calibrated for temperature, precipitation, slope, elevation, and fire probability. The output of the model includes biomass estimates for 44 tree species that occur in the RFE, grouped by genus. We compared the model outputs with land cover classifications derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and LIDAR-based estimates of biomass across the entire region, and Russian forest inventory records at selected sites. Overall, we find that the FAREAST estimates of forest biomass and general composition are consistent with the observed distribution of forest types.

Simulation of Management Effect on Runoff and Sediment Transport in Riparian Forest Buffers by APEX Model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic/water quality models are increasingly used to explore management and policy alternatives for managing water quality and quantity from intensive silvicultural practices with Best Management Practices (BMPs) in forested watersheds due to the limited number of studies and the cost of conduct...

Impact Assessment of Pine Wilt Disease Using the Species Distribution Model and the CLIMEX Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIM, J. U.; Jung, H.

2016-12-01

The plant disease triangle consists of the host plant, pathogen and environment, but their interaction has not been considered in climate change adaptation policy. Our objectives are to predict the changes of a coniferous forest, pine wood nematodes (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) and pine sawyer beetles (Monochamus spp.), which is a cause of pine wilt disease in the Republic of Korea. We analyzed the impact of pine wilt disease on climate change by using the species distribution model (SDM) and the CLIMEX model. Area of coniferous forest will decline and move to northern and high-altitude area. But pine wood nematodes and pine sawyer beetles are going to spread because they are going to be in a more favorable environment in the future. Coniferous forests are expected to have high vulnerability because of the decrease in area and the increase in the risk of pine wilt disease. Such changes to forest ecosystems will greatly affect climate change in the future. If effective and appropriate prevention and control policies are not implemented, coniferous forests will be severely damaged. An adaptation policy should be created in order to protect coniferous forests from the viewpoint of biodiversity. Thus we need to consider the impact assessment of climate change for establishing an effective adaptation policy. The impact assessment of pine wilt disease using a plant disease triangle drew suitable results to support climate change adaptation policy.

Effect of canopy architectural variation on transpiration and thermoregulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linn, R.; Banerjee, T.

2017-12-01

One of the major scientific questions identified by the NGEE - Tropics campaign is the effect of disturbances such as forest fires, vegetation thinning and land use change on carbon, water and energy fluxes. Answers to such questions can help develop effective forest management strategies and shape policies to mitigate damages under natural and anthropogenic climate change. The absence of horizontal and vertical variation of forest canopy structure in current models is a major source of uncertainty in answering these questions. The current work addresses this issue through a bottom up process based modeling approach to systematically investigate the effect of forest canopy architectural variation on plant physiological response as well as canopy level fluxes. A plant biophysics formulation is used which is based on the following principles: (1) a model for the biochemical demand for CO2 as prescribed by photosynthesis models. This model can differentiate between photosynthesis under light-limited and nutrient-limited scenarios. (2) A Fickian mass transfer model including transfer through the laminar boundary layer on leaves that may be subjected to forced or free convection depending upon the mean velocity and the radiation load; (3) an optimal leaf water use strategy that maximizes net carbon gain for a given transpiration rate to describe the stomatal aperture variation; (4) a leaf-level energy balance to accommodate evaporative cooling. Such leaf level processes are coupled to solutions of atmospheric flow through vegetation canopies. In the first test case, different scenarios of top heavy and bottom heavy (vertical) foliage distributions are investigated within a one-dimensional framework where no horizontal heterogeneity of canopy structure is considered. In another test case, different spatial distributions (both horizontal and vertical) of canopy geometry (land use) are considered, where flow solutions using large eddy simulations (LES) are coupled to the aforementioned leaf level physiological model. The systematic differences observed across these simulated scenarios provide a clear insight of disturbance effects of forest-atmosphere interaction.

Temperate forest fragments maintain aboveground carbon stocks out to the forest edge despite changes in community composition.

PubMed

Ziter, Carly; Bennett, Elena M; Gonzalez, Andrew

2014-11-01

Edge effects are among the primary mechanisms by which forest fragmentation can influence the link between biodiversity and ecosystem processes, but relatively few studies have quantified these mechanisms in temperate regions. Carbon storage is an important ecosystem function altered by edge effects, with implications for climate change mitigation. Two opposing hypotheses suggest that aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks at the forest edge will (a) decrease due to increased tree mortality and compositional shifts towards smaller, lower wood density species (e.g., as seen in tropical systems) or, less often, (b) increase due to light/temperature-induced increases in diversity and productivity. We used field-based measurements, allometry, and mixed models to investigate the effects of proximity to the forest edge on AGC stocks, species richness, and community composition in 24 forest fragments in southern Quebec. We also asked whether fragment size or connectivity with surrounding forests altered these edge effects. AGC stocks remained constant across a 100 m edge-to-interior gradient in all fragment types, despite changes in tree community composition and stem density consistent with expectations of forest edge effects. We attribute this constancy primarily to compensatory effects of small trees at the forest edge; however, it is due in some cases to the retention of large trees at forest edges, likely a result of forest management. Our results suggest important differences between temperate and tropical fragments with respect to mechanisms linking biodiversity and AGC dynamics. Small temperate forest fragments may be valuable in conservation efforts based on maintaining biodiversity and multiple ecosystem services.

Predictors of Drought Recovery across Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, W.

2016-12-01

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but central for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with basic plant physiological understanding. Here, we discuss what we have learned about forest ecosystem recovery from extreme drought across spatial and temporal scales, drawing on inference from tree rings, eddy covariance data, large scale gross primary productivity products, and ecosystem models. In tree rings, we find pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1-4 years after severe drought, and that legacy effects are most prevalent in dry ecosystems, Pinaceae, and species with low hydraulic safety margins. At larger scales, we see relatively rapid recovery of ecosystem fluxes, with strong influences of ecosystem productivity and diversity and longer recovery periods in high latidue forests. In contrast, no or limited legacy effects are simulated in current climate-vegetation models after drought, and we highlight some of the key missing mechanisms in dynamic vegetation models. Our results reveal hysteresis in forest ecosystem carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes and help advance a predictive understanding of ecosystem recovery.

Forest management as possible driver in mitigating climate change impacts at northern latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collalti, Alessio; Trotta, Carlo; Santini, Monia; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-04-01

Climate change is likely to impact the dynamics of carbon and water cycles in forests over the next century. To date, it is still debated how forests will react. Some key variables may help in understanding the extent at which terrestrial ecosystems will be affected. Carbon Use Efficiency (CUE) and Water Use Efficiency (WUE) represent some of these key aspects. CUE represents the capacity of the forests to transfer carbon from the atmosphere to the terrestrial biomass, WUE the carbon gained for the water lost via canopy transpiration. Hence, both are key variables since they intimately represent the effects of several coupled ecophysiological processes affected by climate change. Here, we analyzed how within the 3D-CMCC-CNR FEM, forced by five general circulation model data and the four representative concentration pathways, the modeled CUE and WUE are affected by, from seasonal to over medium- and long-time period, warming, rising atmospheric [CO2] and management, assessing at which extent each component influences model results in an existing boreal forest in Finland. The 3D-CMCC-CNR FEM model results reveal that CUE tends to decrease with warmer scenarios, and management may greatly dampen the effects but only in the short- to medium-time period. WUE can increase consistently owing to the increasing of the CO2 fertilization if coupled with management. These results confirm also, at stand spatial scale resolution, what found globally in other recent studies and suggesting to consider for long-term period alternative forest management practices to enhance these effects in mitigating climate change.

The effect of natural disturbances on the risk from hydrogeomorphic hazards under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheidl, Christian; Thaler, Thomas; Seidl, Rupert; Rammer, Werner; Kohl, Bernhard; Markart, Gerhard

2017-04-01

Recent storm events in Austria show once more how floods, sediment transport processes and debris flows constitute a major threat in alpine regions with a high density of population and an increasing spatial development. As protection forests have a major control function on runoff and erosion, they directly affect the risk from such hydrogeomorphic processes. However, research on future climate conditions, with an expected increase of the global average surface temperature of 3-5°C by 2100, compared to the first decade of the 20th century, raises a number of open questions for a sustainable and improved hazard management in mountain forests. For Europe, for instance, a climate-induced increase in forest disturbances like wildfire, wind, and insect's outbreaks is highly likely for the coming decades. Especially in protection forests, future scenarios of such climate induced natural disturbances and their impact on the protective effect remain an unresolved issue. Combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering our project uses an integral approach to simulate possible effects of natural disturbances on hydrogeomorphic hazards in the perspective of future protection forest developments. With the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand) we conduct an ensemble of forest landscape simulations, assessing the impact of future changes in natural disturbance regimes in four selected torrential catchments. These catchments are situated in two different forest growth areas. Drainage rate simulations are based on the conceptual hydrological model (ZEMOKOST), whereas simulations of the effect of forest disturbances on hillslope erosion processes are conducted by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Beside process based simulations, we also emphasis to identify the risk perception and adaptive capacity to mitigate a probable loss of protection functions in forests. For this reason, a postal survey among forestry actors will be performed to assess forest managers concern and willingness to engage in natural hazards management in contrast to the roles of their social network and the roles of political/administrative representatives. We will compare these perceived roles along the dimensions efficacy, attribution of responsibility and trust. This theory-driven approach highlights the motivational structure underlying the willingness to participate in natural hazards initiatives, and allows to tailor policy implications to the needs and capacities of distinct target groups. The outcomes of the investigations shall contribute to the development of adaptive management strategies for forestry administrations at all political levels to mitigate negative effects of climate change in protection forests.

Emergence of nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests: hypotheses from simulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvigy, D.; Waring, B. G.; Xu, X.; Trierweiler, A.; Werden, L. K.; Wang, G.; Zhu, Q.; Powers, J. S.

2017-12-01

It is unclear to what extent tropical dry forest productivity may be limited by nutrients. Direct assessment of nutrient limitation through fertilization experiments has been rare, and paradigms pertaining to other ecosystems may not extend to tropical dry forests. For example, because dry tropical forests have a lower water supply than moist tropical forests, dry forests can have lower decomposition rates, higher soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations, and a more open nitrogen cycle than moist forests. We used a mechanistic, numerical model to generate hypotheses about nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests. The model dynamically couples ED2 (vegetation dynamics), MEND (biogeochemistry), and N-COM (plant-microbe competition for nutrients). Here, the MEND-component of the model has been extended to include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. We focus on simulation of sixteen 25m x 25m plots in Costa Rica where a fertilization experiment has been underway since 2015. Baseline simulations are characterized by both nitrogen and phosphorus limitation of vegetation. Fertilization with N and P increased vegetation biomass, with N fertilization having a somewhat stronger effect. Nutrient limitation was also sensitive to climate and was more pronounced during drought periods. Overflow respiration was identified as a key process that mitigated nutrient limitation. These results suggest that, despite often having richer soils than tropical moist forests, tropical dry forests can also become nutrient-limited. If the climate becomes drier in the next century, as is expected for Central America, drier soils may decrease microbial activity and exacerbate nutrient limitation. The importance of overflow respiration underscores the need for appropriate treatment of microbial dynamics in ecosystem models. Ongoing and new nutrient fertilization experiments will present opportunities for testing whether, and how, nutrient limitation may indeed be emerging in tropical dry forests.

Evaluation of climate-related carbon turnover processes in global vegetation models for boreal and temperate forests.

PubMed

Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Ciais, Philippe; Friend, Andrew D; Ito, Akihiko; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Quegan, Shaun; Rademacher, Tim T; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Tum, Markus; Wiltshire, Andy; Carvalhais, Nuno

2017-08-01

Turnover concepts in state-of-the-art global vegetation models (GVMs) account for various processes, but are often highly simplified and may not include an adequate representation of the dominant processes that shape vegetation carbon turnover rates in real forest ecosystems at a large spatial scale. Here, we evaluate vegetation carbon turnover processes in GVMs participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT) using estimates of vegetation carbon turnover rate (k) derived from a combination of remote sensing based products of biomass and net primary production (NPP). We find that current model limitations lead to considerable biases in the simulated biomass and in k (severe underestimations by all models except JeDi and VISIT compared to observation-based average k), likely contributing to underestimation of positive feedbacks of the northern forest carbon balance to climate change caused by changes in forest mortality. A need for improved turnover concepts related to frost damage, drought, and insect outbreaks to better reproduce observation-based spatial patterns in k is identified. As direct frost damage effects on mortality are usually not accounted for in these GVMs, simulated relationships between k and winter length in boreal forests are not consistent between different regions and strongly biased compared to the observation-based relationships. Some models show a response of k to drought in temperate forests as a result of impacts of water availability on NPP, growth efficiency or carbon balance dependent mortality as well as soil or litter moisture effects on leaf turnover or fire. However, further direct drought effects such as carbon starvation (only in HYBRID4) or hydraulic failure are usually not taken into account by the investigated GVMs. While they are considered dominant large-scale mortality agents, mortality mechanisms related to insects and pathogens are not explicitly treated in these models. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.

2015-12-01

Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

Growth and yield of all-aged Douglas-fir -- western hemlock forest stands: a matrix model with stand diversity effects.

Treesearch

Jingjing Liang; Joseph Buonglorno; Robert A. Monserud

2005-01-01

A density-dependent matrix model was developed for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) -- western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) forest stands in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The model predicted the number and volume of trees for 4 species groups and 19 diameter classes. The parameters...

Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth

PubMed Central

Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

2014-01-01

Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent. PMID:24670981

Pan-tropical analysis of climate effects on seasonal tree growth.

PubMed

Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

2014-01-01

Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent.

Mapping potential carbon and timber losses from hurricanes using a decision tree and ecosystem services driver model.

PubMed

Delphin, S; Escobedo, F J; Abd-Elrahman, A; Cropper, W

2013-11-15

Information on the effect of direct drivers such as hurricanes on ecosystem services is relevant to landowners and policy makers due to predicted effects from climate change. We identified forest damage risk zones due to hurricanes and estimated the potential loss of 2 key ecosystem services: aboveground carbon storage and timber volume. Using land cover, plot-level forest inventory data, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and a decision tree-based framework; we determined potential damage to subtropical forests from hurricanes in the Lower Suwannee River (LS) and Pensacola Bay (PB) watersheds in Florida, US. We used biophysical factors identified in previous studies as being influential in forest damage in our decision tree and hurricane wind risk maps. Results show that 31% and 0.5% of the total aboveground carbon storage in the LS and PB, respectively was located in high forest damage risk (HR) zones. Overall 15% and 0.7% of the total timber net volume in the LS and PB, respectively, was in HR zones. This model can also be used for identifying timber salvage areas, developing ecosystem service provision and management scenarios, and assessing the effect of other drivers on ecosystem services and goods. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Air Pollution and Climate Change on Forest Ecosystems — Emerging Research Needs

PubMed Central

Paoletti, Elena; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Andersen, Chris; Augustaitis, Algirdas; Ferretti, Marco; Grulke, Nancy; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Innes, John; Johnson, Dale; Karnosky, Dave; Luangjame, Jesada; Matyssek, Rainer; McNulty, Steven; Müller-Starck, Gerhard; Musselman, Robert; Percy, Kevin

2007-01-01

Outcomes from the 22nd meeting for Specialists in Air Pollution Effects on Forest Ecosystems “Forests under Anthropogenic Pressure Effects of Air Pollution, Climate Change and Urban Development”, September 1016, 2006, Riverside, CA, are summarized. Tropospheric or ground-level ozone (O3) is still the phytotoxic air pollutant of major interest. Challenging issues are how to make O3 standards or critical levels more biologically based and at the same time practical for wide use; quantification of plant detoxification processes in flux modeling; inclusion of multiple environmental stresses in critical load determinations; new concept development for nitrogen saturation; interactions between air pollution, climate, and forest pests; effects of forest fire on air quality; the capacity of forests to sequester carbon under changing climatic conditions and coexposure to elevated levels of air pollutants; enhanced linkage between molecular biology, biochemistry, physiology, and morphological traits. PMID:17450274

Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

Treesearch

Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung. Chen

2000-01-01

A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic...

Application of an imputation method for geospatial inventory of forest structural attributes across multiple spatial scales in the Lake States, U.S.A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deo, Ram K.

Credible spatial information characterizing the structure and site quality of forests is critical to sustainable forest management and planning, especially given the increasing demands and threats to forest products and services. Forest managers and planners are required to evaluate forest conditions over a broad range of scales, contingent on operational or reporting requirements. Traditionally, forest inventory estimates are generated via a design-based approach that involves generalizing sample plot measurements to characterize an unknown population across a larger area of interest. However, field plot measurements are costly and as a consequence spatial coverage is limited. Remote sensing technologies have shown remarkable success in augmenting limited sample plot data to generate stand- and landscape-level spatial predictions of forest inventory attributes. Further enhancement of forest inventory approaches that couple field measurements with cutting edge remotely sensed and geospatial datasets are essential to sustainable forest management. We evaluated a novel Random Forest based k Nearest Neighbors (RF-kNN) imputation approach to couple remote sensing and geospatial data with field inventory collected by different sampling methods to generate forest inventory information across large spatial extents. The forest inventory data collected by the FIA program of US Forest Service was integrated with optical remote sensing and other geospatial datasets to produce biomass distribution maps for a part of the Lake States and species-specific site index maps for the entire Lake State. Targeting small-area application of the state-of-art remote sensing, LiDAR (light detection and ranging) data was integrated with the field data collected by an inexpensive method, called variable plot sampling, in the Ford Forest of Michigan Tech to derive standing volume map in a cost-effective way. The outputs of the RF-kNN imputation were compared with independent validation datasets and extant map products based on different sampling and modeling strategies. The RF-kNN modeling approach was found to be very effective, especially for large-area estimation, and produced results statistically equivalent to the field observations or the estimates derived from secondary data sources. The models are useful to resource managers for operational and strategic purposes.

Decision support models for economically efficient integrated forest management

Treesearch

Hans R. Zuuring; Judy M. Troutwine; Greg J. Jones; Janet Sullivan

2005-01-01

Forest managers are challenged to fulfill conflicting social, biological, and commodity production objectives. To wisely use available, scarce resources for management activities, it is not enough to consider short term costs and effects of management (fuel reduction, planting, or other forest treatments). Long term tactical, spatial and temporal planning is needed to...

Simulating timber management in Lake States forests.

Treesearch

Gary J. Brand

1981-01-01

Describes in detail a management subsystem to simulate cutting in Lake States forest types. This subsystem is part of a Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System (STEMS) contained in the Forest Resource Evaluation Program (FREP) for the Lake States. The management subsystem can be used to test the effect of alternate management strategies.

Modeling belowground biomass of black cohosh, a medicinal forest product.

Treesearch

James Chamberlain; Gabrielle Ness; Christine Small; Simon Bonner; Elizabeth Hiebert

2014-01-01

Tens of thousands of kilograms of rhizomes and roots of Actaea racemosa L., a native Appalachian forest perennial, are harvested every year and used for the treatment of menopausal conditions. Sustainable management of this and other wild-harvested non-timber forest products requires the ability to effectively and reliably inventory marketable plant...

Comparative analysis of forest lands cadastral appraisal estimated with regards to wood and food resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovyazin, V.; Romanchikov, A.; Pasko, O.

2015-11-01

Cadastral appraisal of forest fund is one of the topical challenges of modern natural resource management. The paper delivers comparison of different approaches to cadastral appraisal of forest lands. The authors suggest a uniformed model to compare objectively and choose the most effective use of parcels.

An Evaluation of "Forests of the World," a Project Learning Tree Secondary Module

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ghent, Cynthia; Parmer, Giavanna; Haines, Sarah

2013-01-01

This study sought to determine whether a secondary level curricular model based on enhancing knowledge and awareness of global forest issues would have an effect on students' self-perceived knowledge of forest issues, actual content knowledge of these issues, and pro-environmental attitudes. The study instrument is the secondary module…

Climate Change for Agriculture, Forest Cover and 3d Urban Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapoor, M.; Bassir, D.

2014-11-01

This research demonstrates the important role of the remote sensing in finding out the different parameters behind the agricultural crop change, forest cover and urban 3D models. Standalone software is developed to view and analysis the different factors effecting the change in crop productions. Open-source libraries from the Open Source Geospatial Foundation have been used for the development of the shape-file viewer. Software can be used to get the attribute information, scale, zoom in/out and pan the shapefiles. Environmental changes due to pollution and population that are increasing the urbanisation and decreasing the forest cover on the earth. Satellite imagery such as Landsat 5(1984) to Landsat TRIS/8 (2014), Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and NDVI are used to analyse the different parameters that are effecting the agricultural crop production change and forest change. It is advisable for the development of good quality of NDVI and forest cover maps to use data collected from the same processing methods for the complete region. Management practices have been developed from the analysed data for the betterment of the crop and saving the forest cover

Including Effects of Water Stress on Dead Organic Matter Decay to a Forest Carbon Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Lee, J.; Han, S. H.; Kim, S.; Son, Y.

2017-12-01

Decay of dead organic matter is a key process of carbon (C) cycling in forest ecosystems. The change in decay rate depends on temperature sensitivity and moisture conditions. The Forest Biomass and Dead organic matter Carbon (FBDC) model includes a decay sub-model considering temperature sensitivity, yet does not consider moisture conditions as drivers of the decay rate change. This study aimed to improve the FBDC model by including a water stress function to the decay sub-model. Also, soil C sequestration under climate change with the FBDC model including the water stress function was simulated. The water stress functions were determined with data from decomposition study on Quercus variabilis forests and Pinus densiflora forests of Korea, and adjustment parameters of the functions were determined for both species. The water stress functions were based on the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Including the water stress function increased the explained variances of the decay rate by 19% for the Q. variabilis forests and 7% for the P. densiflora forests, respectively. The increase of the explained variances resulted from large difference in temperature range and precipitation range across the decomposition study plots. During the period of experiment, the mean annual temperature range was less than 3°C, while the annual precipitation ranged from 720mm to 1466mm. Application of the water stress functions to the FBDC model constrained increasing trend of temperature sensitivity under climate change, and thus increased the model-estimated soil C sequestration (Mg C ha-1) by 6.6 for the Q. variabilis forests and by 3.1 for the P. densiflora forests, respectively. The addition of water stress functions increased reliability of the decay rate estimation and could contribute to reducing the bias in estimating soil C sequestration under varying moisture condition. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by Korea Forest Service (2017044B10-1719-BB01)

Development of a Sediment Transport Component for DHSVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doten, C. O.; Bowling, L. C.; Maurer, E. P.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2003-12-01

The effect of forest management and disturbance on aquatic resources is a problem of considerable, contemporary, scientific and public concern in the West. Sediment generation is one of the factors linking land surface conditions with aquatic systems, with implications for fisheries protection and enhancement. Better predictive techniques that allow assessment of the effects of fire and logging, in particular, on sediment transport could help to provide a more scientific basis for the management of forests in the West. We describe the development of a sediment transport component for the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), a spatially distributed hydrologic model that was developed specifically for assessment of the hydrologic consequences of forest management. The sediment transport module extends the hydrologic dynamics of DHSVM to predict sediment generation in response to dynamic meteorological inputs and hydrologic conditions via mass wasting and surface erosion from forest roads and hillslopes. The mass wasting component builds on existing stochastic slope stability models, by incorporating distributed basin hydrology (from DHSVM), and post-failure, rule-based redistribution of sediment downslope. The stochastic nature of the mass wasting component allows specification of probability distributions that describe the spatial variability of soil and vegetation characteristics used in the infinite slope model. The forest roads and hillslope surface erosion algorithms account for erosion from rain drop impact and overland erosion. A simple routing scheme is used to transport eroded sediment from mass wasting and forest roads surface erosion that reaches the channel system to the basin outlet. A sensitivity analysis of the model input parameters and forest cover conditions is described for the Little Wenatchee River basin in the northeastern Washington Cascades.

[NDVI difference rate recognition model of deciduous broad-leaved forest based on HJ-CCD remote sensing data].

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Tian, Qing-Jiu; Huang, Yan; Wei, Hong-Wei

2013-04-01

The present paper takes Chuzhou in Anhui Province as the research area, and deciduous broad-leaved forest as the research object. Then it constructs the recognition model about deciduous broad-leaved forest was constructed using NDVI difference rate between leaf expansion and flowering and fruit-bearing, and the model was applied to HJ-CCD remote sensing image on April 1, 2012 and May 4, 2012. At last, the spatial distribution map of deciduous broad-leaved forest was extracted effectively, and the results of extraction were verified and evaluated. The result shows the validity of NDVI difference rate extraction method proposed in this paper and also verifies the applicability of using HJ-CCD data for vegetation classification and recognition.

The Past, Present and Future of the Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmore, K. L.

2016-12-01

The Metorological Phenomemna Identification NeartheGround (mPING) project is an example of a crowd-sourced, citizen science effort to gather data of sufficeint quality and quantity needed by new post processing methods that use machine learning. Transportation and infrastructure are particularly sensitive to precipitation type in winter weather. We extract attributes from operational numerical forecast models and use them in a random forest to generate forecast winter precipitation types. We find that random forests applied to forecast soundings are effective at generating skillful forecasts of surface ptype with consideralbly more skill than the current algorithms, especuially for ice pellets and freezing rain. We also find that three very different forecast models yuield similar overall results, showing that random forests are able to extract essentially equivalent information from different forecast models. We also show that the random forest for each model, and each profile type is unique to the particular forecast model and that the random forests developed using a particular model suffer significant degradation when given attributes derived from a different model. This implies that no single algorithm can perform well across all forecast models. Clearly, random forests extract information unavailable to "physically based" methods because the physical information in the models does not appear as we expect. One intersting result is that results from the classic "warm nose" sounding profile are, by far, the most sensitive to the particular forecast model, but this profile is also the one for which random forests are most skillful. Finally, a method for calibrarting probabilties for each different ptype using multinomial logistic regression is shown.

The influence of forest cover on landslide occurrence explored with spatio-temporal information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmaltz, Elmar M.; Steger, Stefan; Glade, Thomas

2017-08-01

Multi-temporal landslide inventories in widely forested landscapes are scarce and further studies are required to face the challenges of producing reliable inventories in woodland areas. An elaboration of valuable empirical relationships between shallow landslides and forest cover based on recent remote sensing data alone is often hampered due to constant land cover changes, differing ages of landslides within a landslide inventory and the fact that usage of different data sets for mapping might lead to various systematic mapping biases. Within this study, we attempted to overcome these difficulties in order to explore the effect of forest cover on shallow landslide occurrences. Thus, forest dynamics were examined on the basis of 9 orthophoto series from 1950s to 2015, distinguishing 3 forest classes, based on the wood type. These classes were furthermore distinguished in 12 subclasses, considering stand density and age. A multi-temporal landslide inventory was compiled for the same period based on the aerial photography, 2 airborne LiDAR imageries, 8 field surveys and archive data. We derived topographical parameters (slope, topographical positioning index and convergency index) from the digital elevation model for areal correction and accounting for topographical confounders within a logistic regression model. Empirical relationships were assessed by means of (a) areal changes of forests and logged areas, (b) spatio-temporal distribution of shallow translational landslides, (c) frequency ratios and (d) logistic regression analysis. The findings revealed that forests increased by 16.2% from 1950s to 2015. 311 landslides of 351 in total that where mapped in total could be assigned to the observed time series and were considered for our analyses. Frequency ratios and odds ratios indicated a stabilising effect of all forest classes on landslide occurrences. Odds ratios observed for the models based on aggregated data sets (3 forest classes) indicated provided evidence that forest was constantly estimated to be less prone to slope failure than their non-forested counterparts. The chances for forest classes to be affected by shallow landslides were estimated to be considerably lower whenever topographic predictors were as well included in the model. A detailed inspection of the statistical results suggests that the obtained empirical relationships should be interpreted with care. Challenges in the mapping procedures of forests and landslides, implications of the applied methods and potential pitfalls are discussed.

Evaluating effectiveness of down-sampling for stratified designs and unbalanced prevalence in Random Forest models of tree species distributions in Nevada

Treesearch

Elizabeth A. Freeman; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracy S. Frescino

2012-01-01

Random Forests is frequently used to model species distributions over large geographic areas. Complications arise when data used to train the models have been collected in stratified designs that involve different sampling intensity per stratum. The modeling process is further complicated if some of the target species are relatively rare on the landscape leading to an...

Evaluation and operationalization of a novel forest detrainment modeling approach for computational snow avalanche simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teich, M.; Feistl, T.; Fischer, J.; Bartelt, P.; Bebi, P.; Christen, M.; Grêt-Regamey, A.

2013-12-01

Two-dimensional avalanche simulation software operating in three-dimensional terrain are widely used for hazard zoning and engineering to predict runout distances and impact pressures of snow avalanche events. Mountain forests are an effective biological protection measure; however, the protective capacity of forests to decelerate or even to stop avalanches that start within forested areas or directly above the treeline is seldom considered in this context. In particular, runout distances of small- to medium-scale avalanches are strongly influenced by the structural conditions of forests in the avalanche path. This varying decelerating effect has rarely been addressed or implemented in avalanche simulation. We present an evaluation and operationalization of a novel forest detrainment modeling approach implemented in the avalanche simulation software RAMMS. The new approach accounts for the effect of forests in the avalanche path by detraining mass, which leads to a deceleration and runout shortening of avalanches. The extracted avalanche mass caught behind trees stops immediately and, therefore, is instantly subtracted from the flow and the momentum of the stopped mass is removed from the total momentum of the avalanche flow. This relationship is parameterized by the empirical detrainment coefficient K [Pa] which accounts for the braking power of different forest types per unit area. To define K dependent on specific forest characteristics, we simulated 40 well-documented small- to medium-scale avalanches which released in and ran through forests with varying K-values. Comparing two-dimensional simulation results with one-dimensional field observations for a high number of avalanche events and simulations manually is however time consuming and rather subjective. In order to process simulation results in a comprehensive and standardized way, we used a recently developed automatic evaluation and comparison method defining runout distances based on a pressure-based runout indicator in an avalanche path dependent coordinate system. Analyzing and comparing observed and simulated runout distances statistically revealed values for K suitable to simulate the combined influence of four forest characteristics on avalanche runout: forest type, crown coverage, vertical structure and surface roughness, e.g. values for K were higher for dense spruce and mixed spruce-beech forests compared to open larch forests at the upper treeline. Considering forest structural conditions within avalanche simulation will improve current applications for avalanche simulation tools in mountain forest and natural hazard management considerably. Furthermore, we show that an objective and standardized evaluation of two-dimensional simulation results is essential for a successful evaluation and further calibration of avalanche models in general.

Simulating Carbon cycle and phenology in complex forests using a multi-layer process based ecosystem model; evaluation and use of 3D-CMCC-Forest Ecosystem Model in a deciduous and an evergreen neighboring forests, within the area of Brasschaat (Be)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marconi, S.; Collalti, A.; Santini, M.; Valentini, R.

2013-12-01

3D-CMCC-Forest Ecosystem Model is a process based model formerly developed for complex forest ecosystems to estimate growth, water and carbon cycles, phenology and competition processes on a daily/monthly time scale. The Model integrates some characteristics of the functional-structural tree models with the robustness of the light use efficiency approach. It treats different heights, ages and species as discrete classes, in competition for light (vertical structure) and space (horizontal structure). The present work evaluates the results of the recently developed daily version of 3D-CMCC-FEM for two neighboring different even aged and mono specific study cases. The former is a heterogeneous Pedunculate oak forest (Quercus robur L. ), the latter a more homogeneous Scot pine forest (Pinus sylvestris L.). The multi-layer approach has been evaluated against a series of simplified versions to determine whether the improved model complexity in canopy structure definition increases its predictive ability. Results show that a more complex structure (three height layers) should be preferable to simulate heterogeneous scenarios (Pedunculate oak stand), where heights distribution within the canopy justify the distinction in dominant, dominated and sub-dominated layers. On the contrary, it seems that using a multi-layer approach for more homogeneous stands (Scot pine stand) may be disadvantageous. Forcing the structure of an homogeneous stand to a multi-layer approach may in fact increase sources of uncertainty. On the other hand forcing complex forests to a mono layer simplified model, may cause an increase in mortality and a reduction in average DBH and Height. Compared with measured CO2 flux data, model results show good ability in estimating carbon sequestration trends, on both a monthly/seasonal and daily time scales. Moreover the model simulates quite well leaf phenology and the combined effects of the two different forest stands on CO2 fluxes.

Modeling the Emergent Impacts of Harvesting Acadian Forests over 100+ Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luus, K. A.; Plug, L. J.

2007-12-01

Harvesting strategies and policies for Acadian forest in Nova Scotia, Canada, presently are set using Decision Support Models (DSMs) that aim to maximize the long-term (>100y) value of forests through decisions implemented over short time horizons (5-80 years). However, DSMs typically are aspatial, lack ecological processes and do not treat erosion, so the long-term (>100y) emergent impacts of the prescribed forestry decisions on erosion and vegetation in Acadian forests remain poorly known. To better understand these impacts, we created an equation-based model that simulates the evolution of a ≥4 km2 forest in time steps of 1 y and at a spatial resolution of 3 m2, the footprint of a single mature tree. The model combines 1) ecological processes of recruitment, competition, and mortality; 2) geomorphic processes of hillslope erosion; 3) anthropic processes of tree harvesting, replanting, and road construction under constraints imposed by regulations and cost/benefit ratio. The model uses digital elevation models, parameters (where available), and calibration (where measurements are not available) for conditions presently found in central Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. The model is unique because it 1) deals with the impacts of harvesting on an Acadian forest; and 2) vegetation and erosion are coupled. The model was tested by comparing the species-specific biomass of long-term (40 y) forest plot data to simulated results. At the spatial scale of individual 1 ha plots, model predictions presently account for approximately 50% of observed biomass changes through time, but predictions are hampered by the effects of serendipitous "random" events such as single tree windfall. Harvesting increases the cumulative erosion over 3000 years by 240% when compared to an old growth forest and significantly suppresses the growth of Balsam Fir and Sugar Maple. We discuss further tests of the model, and how it might be used to investigate the long-term sustainability of the recommendations made by DSMs and to better understand the relationship between vegetation, erosion, and forest management strategies.

Quantifying the missing link between forest albedo and productivity in the boreal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hovi, Aarne; Liang, Jingjing; Korhonen, Lauri; Kobayashi, Hideki; Rautiainen, Miina

2016-11-01

Albedo and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) determine the shortwave radiation balance and productivity of forests. Currently, the physical link between forest albedo and productivity is poorly understood, yet it is crucial for designing optimal forest management strategies for mitigating climate change. We investigated the relationships between boreal forest structure, albedo and FAPAR using a radiative transfer model called Forest Reflectance and Transmittance model FRT and extensive forest inventory data sets ranging from southern boreal forests to the northern tree line in Finland and Alaska (N = 1086 plots). The forests in the study areas vary widely in structure, species composition, and human interference, from intensively managed in Finland to natural growth in Alaska. We show that FAPAR of tree canopies (FAPARCAN) and albedo are tightly linked in boreal coniferous forests, but the relationship is weaker if the forest has broadleaved admixture, or if canopies have low leaf area and the composition of forest floor varies. Furthermore, the functional shape of the relationship between albedo and FAPARCAN depends on the angular distribution of incoming solar irradiance. We also show that forest floor can contribute to over 50 % of albedo or total ecosystem FAPAR. Based on our simulations, forest albedos can vary notably across the biome. Because of larger proportions of broadleaved trees, the studied plots in Alaska had higher albedo (0.141-0.184) than those in Finland (0.136-0.171) even though the albedo of pure coniferous forests was lower in Alaska. Our results reveal that variation in solar angle will need to be accounted for when evaluating climate effects of forest management in different latitudes. Furthermore, increasing the proportion of broadleaved trees in coniferous forests is the most important means of maximizing albedo without compromising productivity: based on our findings the potential of controlling forest density (i.e., basal area) to increase albedo may be limited compared to the effect of favoring broadleaved species.

Predicted effects of prescribed burning and harvesting on forest recovery and sustainability in southwest Georgia, USA.

PubMed

Garten, Charles T

2006-12-01

A model-based analysis of the effect of prescribed burning and forest thinning or clear-cutting on stand recovery and sustainability was conducted at Fort Benning, GA, in the southeastern USA. Two experiments were performed with the model. In the first experiment, forest recovery from degraded soils was predicted for 100 years with or without prescribed burning. In the second experiment simulations began with 100 years of predicted stand growth, then forest sustainability was predicted for an additional 100 years under different combinations of prescribed burning and forest harvesting. Three levels of fire intensity (low, medium, and high), that corresponded to 17%, 33%, and 50% consumption of the forest floor C stock by fire, were evaluated at 1-, 2-, and 3-year fire return intervals. Relative to the control (no fire), prescribed burning with a 2- or 3-year return interval caused only a small reduction in predicted steady state soil C stocks (< or =25%) and had no effect on steady state tree wood biomass, regardless of fire intensity. Annual high intensity burns did adversely impact forest recovery and sustainability (after harvesting) on less sandy soils, but not on more sandy soils that had greater N availability. Higher intensity and frequency of ground fires increased the chance that tree biomass would not return to pre-harvest levels. Soil N limitation was indicated as the cause of unsustainable forests when prescribed burns were too frequent or too intense to permit stand recovery.

Edge fires drive the shape and stability of tropical forests.

PubMed

Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Pellegrini, Adam F A; Bhat, Uttam; Redner, Sidney; Pacala, Stephen W; Berdahl, Andrew M

2018-06-01

In tropical regions, fires propagate readily in grasslands but typically consume only edges of forest patches. Thus, forest patches grow due to tree propagation and shrink by fires in surrounding grasslands. The interplay between these competing edge effects is unknown, but critical in determining the shape and stability of individual forest patches, as well the landscape-level spatial distribution and stability of forests. We analyze high-resolution remote-sensing data from protected Brazilian Cerrado areas and find that forest shapes obey a robust perimeter-area scaling relation across climatic zones. We explain this scaling by introducing a heterogeneous fire propagation model of tropical forest-grassland ecotones. Deviations from this perimeter-area relation determine the stability of individual forest patches. At a larger scale, our model predicts that the relative rates of tree growth due to propagative expansion and long-distance seed dispersal determine whether collapse of regional-scale tree cover is continuous or discontinuous as fire frequency changes. © 2018 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Complex Network Simulation of Forest Network Spatial Pattern in Pearl River Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Y.

2017-09-01

Forest network-construction uses for the method and model with the scale-free features of complex network theory based on random graph theory and dynamic network nodes which show a power-law distribution phenomenon. The model is suitable for ecological disturbance by larger ecological landscape Pearl River Delta consistent recovery. Remote sensing and GIS spatial data are available through the latest forest patches. A standard scale-free network node distribution model calculates the area of forest network's power-law distribution parameter value size; The recent existing forest polygons which are defined as nodes can compute the network nodes decaying index value of the network's degree distribution. The parameters of forest network are picked up then make a spatial transition to GIS real world models. Hence the connection is automatically generated by minimizing the ecological corridor by the least cost rule between the near nodes. Based on scale-free network node distribution requirements, select the number compared with less, a huge point of aggregation as a future forest planning network's main node, and put them with the existing node sequence comparison. By this theory, the forest ecological projects in the past avoid being fragmented, scattered disorderly phenomena. The previous regular forest networks can be reduced the required forest planting costs by this method. For ecological restoration of tropical and subtropical in south China areas, it will provide an effective method for the forest entering city project guidance and demonstration with other ecological networks (water, climate network, etc.) for networking a standard and base datum.

Stimulating seedling growth in early stages of secondary forest succession: a modeling approach to guide tree liberation

PubMed Central

van Kuijk, Marijke; Anten, Niels P. R.; Oomen, Roelof J.; Schieving, Feike

2014-01-01

Excessive growth of non-woody plants and shrubs on degraded lands can strongly hamper tree growth and thus secondary forest succession. A common method to accelerate succession, called liberation, involves opening up the vegetation canopy around young target trees. This can increase growth of target trees by reducing competition for light with neighboring plants. However, liberation has not always had the desired effect, likely due to differences in light requirement between tree species. Here we present a 3D-model, which calculates photosynthetic rate of individual trees in a vegetation stand. It enables us to examine how stature, crown structure, and physiological traits of target trees and characteristics of the surrounding vegetation together determine effects of light on tree growth. The model was applied to a liberation experiment conducted with three pioneer species in a young secondary forest in Vietnam. Species responded differently to the treatment depending on their height, crown structure and their shade-tolerance level. Model simulations revealed practical thresholds over which the tree growth response is heavily influenced by the height and density of surrounding vegetation and gap radius. There were strong correlations between calculated photosynthetic rates and observed growth: the model was well able to predict growth of trees in young forests and the effects of liberation there upon. Thus, our model serves as a useful tool to analyze light competition between young trees and surrounding vegetation and may help assess the potential effect of tree liberation. PMID:25101100

Potential of forest management to reduce French carbon emissions - regional modelling of the French forest carbon balance from the forest to the wood.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, A.; Luyssaert, S.; Bellassen, V.; Vallet, P.

2015-12-01

In France the low levels of forest harvest (40 Mm3 per year over a volume increment of 89Mm3) is frequently cited to push for a more intensive management of the forest that would help reducing CO2 emissions. This reasoning overlooks the medium-to-long-term effects on the carbon uptake at the national scale that result from changes in the forest's structure and delayed emissions from products decay and bioenergy burning, both determinant for the overall C fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. To address the impacts of an increase in harvest removal on biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes at national scale, we build a consistent regional modeling framework to integrate the forest-carbon system from photosynthesis to wood uses. We aim at bridging the gap between regional ecosystem modeling and land managers' considerations, to assess the synergistic and antagonistic effects of management strategies over C-based forest services: C-sequestration, energy and material provision, fossil fuel substitution. For this, we built on inventory data to develop a spatial forest growth simulator and design a novel method for diagnosing the current level of management based on stand characteristics (density, quadratic mean diameter or exploitability). The growth and harvest simulated are then processed with a life cycle analysis to account for wood transformation and uses. Three scenarii describe increases in biomass removals either driven by energy production target (set based on national prospective with a lock on minimum harvest diameters) or by changes in management practices (shorter or longer rotations, management of currently unmanaged forests) to be compared with business as usual simulations. Our management levels' diagnostics quantifies undermanagement at national scale and evidences the large weight of ownership-based undermanagement with an average of 26% of the national forest (between 10% and 40% per species) and thus represents a huge potential wood resource. We examine the effects of a mobilization of this resource versus an intensification of the current harvest on the age structure, the productivity and the stocking volume of the French forest and derive the related impacts on C emissions and C-related services provided by forests.

Available fuel dynamics in nine contrasting forest ecosystems in North America

Treesearch

Soung-Ryoul Ryu; Jiquan Chen; Thomas R. Crow; Sari C. Saunders

2004-01-01

Available fuel and its dynamics, both of which affect fire behavior in forest ecosystems, are direct products of ecosystem production, decomposition, and disturbances. Using published ecosystem models and equations, we developed a simulation model to evaluate the effects of dynamics of aboveground net primary production (ANPP), carbon allocation, residual slash,...

Simulating Effects of Forest Management Practices on Pesticide.

Treesearch

M.C. Smith; W.G. Knisel; J.L. Michael; D.G. Neary

1993-01-01

The GLEAMS model pesticide component was modified to simulate up to 245 pesticides simultaneously, and the revised model was used to pesticide pesticide application windows for forest site preparation and pine release. Five herbicides were made for soils representing four hydrologic soil groups in four climatic regions of the southeastern United States. Five herbicides...

Using models to provide a virtual test of forest treatments

Treesearch

Janet Sullivan; Kevin Hyde

2007-01-01

BEMRP's participation in the Bitterroot National Forest's proposed Trapper Bunkhouse Land Stewardship Project (Trapper-Bunkhouse Project) consists of two parts. One is the field study mentioned elsewhere in this ECO-Report that is looking into the effects of thinning and burning on various resources. The other part involves modeling to determine where...

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity.

PubMed

Bustamante, Mercedes M C; Roitman, Iris; Aide, T Mitchell; Alencar, Ane; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz; Asner, Gregory P; Barlow, Jos; Berenguer, Erika; Chambers, Jeffrey; Costa, Marcos H; Fanin, Thierry; Ferreira, Laerte G; Ferreira, Joice; Keller, Michael; Magnusson, William E; Morales-Barquero, Lucia; Morton, Douglas; Ometto, Jean P H B; Palace, Michael; Peres, Carlos A; Silvério, Divino; Trumbore, Susan; Vieira, Ima C G

2016-01-01

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The intrinsic periodic fluctuation of forest: a theoretical model based on diffusion equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J.; Lin, G., Sr.

2015-12-01

Most forest dynamic models predict the stable state of size structure as well as the total basal area and biomass in mature forest, the variation of forest stands are mainly driven by environmental factors after the equilibrium has been reached. However, although the predicted power-law size-frequency distribution does exist in analysis of many forest inventory data sets, the estimated distribution exponents are always shifting between -2 and -4, and has a positive correlation with the mean value of DBH. This regular pattern can not be explained by the effects of stochastic disturbances on forest stands. Here, we adopted the partial differential equation (PDE) approach to deduce the systematic behavior of an ideal forest, by solving the diffusion equation under the restricted condition of invariable resource occupation, a periodic solution was gotten to meet the variable performance of forest size structure while the former models with stable performance were just a special case of the periodic solution when the fluctuation frequency equals zero. In our results, the number of individuals in each size class was the function of individual growth rate(G), mortality(M), size(D) and time(T), by borrowing the conclusion of allometric theory on these parameters, the results perfectly reflected the observed "exponent-mean DBH" relationship and also gave a logically complete description to the time varying form of forest size-frequency distribution. Our model implies that the total biomass of a forest can never reach a stable equilibrium state even in the absence of disturbances and climate regime shift, we propose the idea of intrinsic fluctuation property of forest and hope to provide a new perspective on forest dynamics and carbon cycle research.

Human access and landscape structure effects on Andean forest bird richness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubad, Jorge; Aragón, Pedro; Rodríguez, Miguel Á.

2010-07-01

We analyzed the influence of human access and landscape structure on forest bird species richness in a fragmented landscape of the Colombian Andes. In Latin America, habitat loss and fragmentation are considered as the greatest threats to biodiversity because a large number of countryside villagers complement their food and incomes with the extraction of forest resources. Anthropogenic actions may also affect forest species by bird hunting or indirectly through modifying the structure of forest habitats. We surveyed 14 secondary cloud forest remnants to generate bird species richness data for each of them. We also quantified six landscape structure descriptors of forest patch size (patch area and core area), shape (perimeter of each fragment and the Patton's shape index) and isolation (nearest neighbor distance and edge contrast), and generated (using principal components analysis) a synthetic human influence variable based on the distance of each fragment to roads and villages, as well as the total slope of the fragments. Species richness was related to these variables using generalized linear models (GLMs) complemented with model selection techniques based on information theory and partial regression analysis. We found that forest patch size and accessibility were key drivers of bird richness, which increased toward largest patches, but decreased in those more accessible to humans and their potential disturbances. Both patch area and human access effects on forest bird species richness were complementary and similar in magnitude. Our results provide a basis for biodiversity conservation plans and initiatives of Andean forest diversity.

An individual-based growth and competition model for coastal redwood forest restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Das, Adrian J.

2014-01-01

Thinning treatments to accelerate coastal redwood forest stand development are in wide application, but managers have yet to identify prescriptions that might best promote Sequoia sempervirens (Lamb. ex D. Don) Endl. (redwood) growth. The creation of successful thinning prescriptions would be aided by identifying the underlying mechanisms governing how individual tree growth responds to competitive environments in coastal redwood forests. We created a spatially explicit individual-based model of tree competition and growth parameterized using surveys of upland redwood forests at Redwood National Park, California. We modeled competition for overstory trees (stems ≥ 20 cm stem diameter at breast height, 1.37 m (dbh)) as growth reductions arising from sizes, distances, and species identity of competitor trees. Our model explained up to half of the variation in individual tree growth, suggesting that neighborhood crowding is an important determinant of growth in this forest type. We used our model to simulate the effects of novel thinning prescriptions (e.g., 40% stand basal area removal) for redwood forest restoration, concluding that these treatments could lead to substantial growth releases, particularly for S. sempervirens. The results of this study, along with continued improvements to our model, will help to determine spacing and species composition that best encourage growth.

Climate change amplifies the interactions between wind and bark beetle disturbances in forest landscapes.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Rammer, Werner

2017-07-01

Growing evidence suggests that climate change could substantially alter forest disturbances. Interactions between individual disturbance agents are a major component of disturbance regimes, yet how interactions contribute to their climate sensitivity remains largely unknown. Here, our aim was to assess the climate sensitivity of disturbance interactions, focusing on wind and bark beetle disturbances. We developed a process-based model of bark beetle disturbance, integrated into the dynamic forest landscape model iLand (already including a detailed model of wind disturbance). We evaluated the integrated model against observations from three wind events and a subsequent bark beetle outbreak, affecting 530.2 ha (3.8 %) of a mountain forest landscape in Austria between 2007 and 2014. Subsequently, we conducted a factorial experiment determining the effect of changes in climate variables on the area disturbed by wind and bark beetles separately and in combination. iLand was well able to reproduce observations with regard to area, temporal sequence, and spatial pattern of disturbance. The observed disturbance dynamics was strongly driven by interactions, with 64.3 % of the area disturbed attributed to interaction effects. A +4 °C warming increased the disturbed area by +264.7 % and the area-weighted mean patch size by +1794.3 %. Interactions were found to have a ten times higher sensitivity to temperature changes than main effects, considerably amplifying the climate sensitivity of the disturbance regime. Disturbance interactions are a key component of the forest disturbance regime. Neglecting interaction effects can lead to a substantial underestimation of the climate change sensitivity of disturbance regimes.

Interactive effects of environmental change and management strategies on regional forest carbon emissions.

PubMed

Hudiburg, Tara W; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Thornton, Peter E; Law, Beverly E

2013-11-19

Climate mitigation activities in forests need to be quantified in terms of the long-term effects on forest carbon stocks, accumulation, and emissions. The impacts of future environmental change and bioenergy harvests on regional forest carbon storage have not been quantified. We conducted a comprehensive modeling study and life-cycle assessment of the impacts of projected changes in climate, CO2 concentration, and N deposition, and region-wide forest management policies on regional forest carbon fluxes. By 2100, if current management strategies continue, then the warming and CO2 fertilization effect in the given projections result in a 32-68% increase in net carbon uptake, overshadowing increased carbon emissions from projected increases in fire activity and other forest disturbance factors. To test the response to new harvesting strategies, repeated thinnings were applied in areas susceptible to fire to reduce mortality, and two clear-cut rotations were applied in productive forests to provide biomass for wood products and bioenergy. The management strategies examined here lead to long-term increased carbon emissions over current harvesting practices, although semiarid regions contribute little to the increase. The harvest rates were unsustainable. This comprehensive approach could serve as a foundation for regional place-based assessments of management effects on future carbon sequestration by forests in other locations.

FOREST ECOLOGY. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models.

PubMed

Anderegg, W R L; Schwalm, C; Biondi, F; Camarero, J J; Koch, G; Litvak, M; Ogle, K; Shaw, J D; Shevliakova, E; Williams, A P; Wolf, A; Ziaco, E; Pacala, S

2015-07-31

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of stem growth in trees after severe drought at 1338 forest sites across the globe, comprising 49,339 site-years, and compared the results with simulated recovery in climate-vegetation models. We found pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1 to 4 years after severe drought. Legacy effects were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, among Pinaceae, and among species with low hydraulic safety margins. In contrast, limited or no legacy effects after drought were simulated by current climate-vegetation models. Our results highlight hysteresis in ecosystem-level carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Effects of land use change on soil carbon cycling in the conterminous United States from 1900 to 2050

Treesearch

Peter B. Woodbury; Linda S. Heath; James E. Smith

2007-01-01

We developed matrices representing historical area transitions between forest and other land uses. We projected future transitions on the basis of historical transitions and econometric model results. These matrices were used to drive a model of changes in soil and forest floor carbon stocks. Our model predicted net carbon emission from 1900 until 1982, then...

Evaluation of the CONSUME and FOFEM fuel consumption models in pine and mixed hardwood forests of the eastern United States

Treesearch

Susan J. Prichard; Eva C. Karau; Roger D. Ottmar; Maureen C. Kennedy; James B. Cronan; Clinton S. Wright; Robert E. Keane

2014-01-01

Reliable predictions of fuel consumption are critical in the eastern United States (US), where prescribed burning is frequently applied to forests and air quality is of increasing concern. CONSUME and the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), predictive models developed to estimate fuel consumption and emissions from wildland fires, have not been systematically...

An evaluation of the hardwood regeneration model (REGEN) 16 years post-harvest of a regenerated stand in East Tennessee

Treesearch

Wayne K. Clatterbuck

2015-01-01

The REGEN model (developed by USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Bent Creek Experimental Forest) was used prior to harvest to predict species composition of hardwoods at crown closure. This study evaluates whether the predictive ability of the model was effective by using post-harvest information after 16 years. Regeneration data were collected prior to...

Simulating effects of changing climate and CO(2) emissions on soil carbon pools at the Hubbard Brook experimental forest.

PubMed

Dib, Alain E; Johnson, Chris E; Driscoll, Charles T; Fahey, Timothy J; Hayhoe, Katharine

2014-05-01

Carbon (C) sequestration in forest biomass and soils may help decrease regional C footprints and mitigate future climate change. The efficacy of these practices must be verified by monitoring and by approved calculation methods (i.e., models) to be credible in C markets. Two widely used soil organic matter models - CENTURY and RothC - were used to project changes in SOC pools after clear-cutting disturbance, as well as under a range of future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2) ) scenarios. Data from the temperate, predominantly deciduous Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, USA, were used to parameterize and validate the models. Clear-cutting simulations demonstrated that both models can effectively simulate soil C dynamics in the northern hardwood forest when adequately parameterized. The minimum postharvest SOC predicted by RothC occurred in postharvest year 14 and was within 1.5% of the observed minimum, which occurred in year 8. CENTURY predicted the postharvest minimum SOC to occur in year 45, at a value 6.9% greater than the observed minimum; the slow response of both models to disturbance suggests that they may overestimate the time required to reach new steady-state conditions. Four climate change scenarios were used to simulate future changes in SOC pools. Climate-change simulations predicted increases in SOC by as much as 7% at the end of this century, partially offsetting future CO(2) emissions. This sequestration was the product of enhanced forest productivity, and associated litter input to the soil, due to increased temperature, precipitation and CO(2) . The simulations also suggested that considerable losses of SOC (8-30%) could occur if forest vegetation at HBEF does not respond to changes in climate and CO(2) levels. Therefore, the source/sink behavior of temperate forest soils likely depends on the degree to which forest growth is stimulated by new climate and CO(2) conditions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forest Fire Danger Rating (FFDR) Prediction over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, B.; Won, M.; Jang, K.; Yoon, S.; Lim, J.

2016-12-01

Approximately five hundred forest fires occur and inflict the losses of both life and property each year in Korea during the forest fire seasons in the spring and autumn. Thus, an accurate prediction of forest fire is essential for effective forest fire prevention. The meteorology is one of important factors to predict and understand the fire occurrence as well as its behaviors and spread. In this study, we present the Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems (FFDRS) on the Korean Peninsula based on the Daily Weather Index (DWI) which represents the meteorological characteristics related to forest fire. The thematic maps including temperature, humidity, and wind speed produced from Korea Meteorology Administration (KMA) were applied to the forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression to analyze the DWI over the Korean Peninsula. The regional data assimilation and prediction system (RDAPS) and the improved digital forecast model were used to verify the sensitivity of DWI. The result of verification test revealed that the improved digital forecast model dataset showed better agreements with the real-time weather data. The forest fire danger rating index (FFDRI) calculated by the improved digital forecast model dataset showed a good agreement with the real-time weather dataset at the 233 administrative districts (R2=0.854). In addition, FFDRI were compared with observation-based FFDRI at 76 national weather stations. The mean difference was 0.5 at the site-level. The results produced in this study indicate that the improved digital forecast model dataset can be useful to predict the FFDRI in the Korean Peninsula successfully.

Soil moisture sensitivity of autotrophic and heterotrophic forest floor respiration in boreal xeric pine and mesic spruce forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ťupek, Boris; Launiainen, Samuli; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Heikkinen, Jukka; Lehtonen, Aleksi

2016-04-01

Litter decomposition rates of the most process based soil carbon models affected by environmental conditions are linked with soil heterotrophic CO2 emissions and serve for estimating soil carbon sequestration; thus due to the mass balance equation the variation in measured litter inputs and measured heterotrophic soil CO2 effluxes should indicate soil carbon stock changes, needed by soil carbon management for mitigation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, if sensitivity functions of the applied model suit to the environmental conditions e.g. soil temperature and moisture. We evaluated the response forms of autotrophic and heterotrophic forest floor respiration to soil temperature and moisture in four boreal forest sites of the International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests) by a soil trenching experiment during year 2015 in southern Finland. As expected both autotrophic and heterotrophic forest floor respiration components were primarily controlled by soil temperature and exponential regression models generally explained more than 90% of the variance. Soil moisture regression models on average explained less than 10% of the variance and the response forms varied between Gaussian for the autotrophic forest floor respiration component and linear for the heterotrophic forest floor respiration component. Although the percentage of explained variance of soil heterotrophic respiration by the soil moisture was small, the observed reduction of CO2 emissions with higher moisture levels suggested that soil moisture response of soil carbon models not accounting for the reduction due to excessive moisture should be re-evaluated in order to estimate right levels of soil carbon stock changes. Our further study will include evaluation of process based soil carbon models by the annual heterotrophic respiration and soil carbon stocks.

Estimating Damage Cost of Net Primary Production due to Climate Change and Ozone(O3) Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Park, C.; Sung, S.; Kim, H. G.; Mo, Y.; Kim, S.; Kil, S.

2016-12-01

Forests are absorbing and storing carbon dioxide (CO2) through photosynthesis. The forests are not only preventing global warming but also influencing temperature, precipitation and humidity (Costanza et al., 1997; de Groot et al., 2002). Also the forests are recognized as a carbon sink internationally (van Kooten, 2009). The Korean Government supports the economic activity such as carbon offset projects in accordance with 'ACT ON THE MANAGEMENT AND IMPROVEMENT OF CARBON SINK' Article27 (Korea Forest Service, 2013) and aims to make a policy which improves the CO2 capacity of forest for Paris Agreement discussed in UNFCCC COP21, December 2015 (Korea Forest Service, 2015). However, the social-economic activities make to increase aerosols as well as greenhouse gases significantly since the industrial revolution, as a result, the chemical composition of the atmosphere has changed significantly. According to the resent studies, not only CO2 but atmospheric chemistries such as ozone (O3), aerosol and black carbon can be an important factor causing climate change (Hansen et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007). In the past, acid rain affected on forest, but in these days, O3, nitrogen oxide (NOX) and sulfur oxide (SOX) are the most threatening factors on forest ecosystem (Lee et al, 2011). In particular, O3accounts for most of the photochemical products and causes a direct significant impact or damage on the plant because of high toxicity (Han et al., 2006). The research questions of this study are "How does O3 effects on forest productivity in the present and future? " What is the damage cost by the O3 effect in the future? In this study, we developed a statistical model using the parameters which effect on the forest productivity. We estimated the forest productivity using on the derived model in the present and future on a SSP scenarios. Lastly, we evaluated the economic effect or damage cost of O3effect by introducing the concept of climate insurance. The average forest productivity, net primary productivity (NPP), in Korea is about 622 gC/m2/yr in the results. And the result shows that NPP decreases about 2.3% by O3 negative effect. The NPP in the future also decreases about 1-2% and the negative effect of O3 is similar. Finally, damage cost by O3 in the future is bigger than damage by climate change.

Modeling nonstructural carbohydrate reserve dynamics in forest trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Andrew; Keenan, Trevor; Carbone, Mariah; Pederson, Neil

2013-04-01

Understanding the factors influencing the availability of nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) reserves is essential for predicting the resilience of forests to climate change and environmental stress. However, carbon allocation processes remain poorly understood and many models either ignore NSC reserves, or use simple and untested representations of NSC allocation and pool dynamics. Using model-data fusion techniques, we combined a parsimonious model of forest ecosystem carbon cycling with novel field sampling and laboratory analyses of NSCs. Simulations were conducted for an evergreen conifer forest and a deciduous broadleaf forest in New England. We used radiocarbon methods based on the 14C "bomb spike" to estimate the age of NSC reserves, and used this to constrain the mean residence time of modeled NSCs. We used additional data, including tower-measured fluxes of CO2, soil and biomass carbon stocks, woody biomass increment, and leaf area index and litterfall, to further constrain the model's parameters and initial conditions. Incorporation of fast- and slow-cycling NSC pools improved the ability of the model to reproduce the measured interannual variability in woody biomass increment. We show how model performance varies according to model structure and total pool size, and we use novel diagnostic criteria, based on autocorrelation statistics of annual biomass growth, to evaluate the model's ability to correctly represent lags and memory effects.

Application of BIOME-BGC to Managed Forest Ecosystems in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, S. A.; Petritsch, R.; Hasenauer, H.

2007-05-01

European forests have been severely modified by humans resulting in a reduction of forest covered land area, a change in tree species distribution and the deterioration of forest soils. One option to assess forest management impacts on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water is the use of BGC-Models. Such models are considered as diagnostic tools for studying sustainability of forest ecosystems and have been used for climate change impact studies on forest growth and carbon sequestration issues. In our efforts to develop an appropriate diagnostic tool to assess the dynamics of carbon, nitrogen, water and energy flux for sustainable forest ecosystem management and climate change studies, we have selected BIOME-BGC. The main reason was that the general model structure is flexible enough to integrate large scale, regional as well as forest stand level information. During the last years we worked on the following extensions: (1) Tested and extended algorithms to interpolate daily climate input data as they are needed to run the model for any location within the country; (2) We developed a set of species specific parameters for all major tree species in Central Europe: Norway spruce (two variants highland and lowlands), Scots pine, Stone pine, larch, common beech and oak forests. These parameters sets are important since in BIOME-BGC vegetation is distinguished in biomes or plant functional types but the impacts of forest management (e.g. changes in stand density) may differ substantially among the tree species assigned to a single biome. (3) We extended the model to cover the full variation ranging from conditions including temperature extremes at the timberline to periodic ground water access or flooding in lowlands. (4) We adapted the spinup procedure to ensure unbiased predictions on forest status in the absence of past and present management impacts. (5) Explicitly addressed the effects of past and present forest management as they may differ by species and silvicultural practice. (6) We assess climate change impacts on managed forests and discuss the impacts of our results on forest management practices.

Tropical forest loss and its multitrophic effects on insect herbivory.

PubMed

Morante-Filho, José Carlos; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Lohbeck, Madelon; Tscharntke, Teja; Faria, Deborah

2016-12-01

Forest loss threatens biodiversity, but its potential effects on multitrophic ecological interactions are poorly understood. Insect herbivory depends on complex bottom-up (e.g., resource availability and plant antiherbivore defenses) and top-down forces (e.g., abundance of predators and herbivorous), but its determinants in human-altered tropical landscapes are largely unknown. Using structural equation models, we assessed the direct and indirect effects of forest loss on insect herbivory in 40 landscapes (115 ha each) from two regions with contrasting land-use change trajectories in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. We considered landscape forest cover as an exogenous predictor and (1) forest structure, (2) abundance of predators (birds and arthropods), and (3) abundance of herbivorous arthropods as endogenous predictors of insect leaf damage. From 12 predicted pathways, 11 were significant and showed that (1) leaf damage increases with forest loss (direct effect); (2) leaf damage increases with forest loss through the simplification of vegetation structure and its associated dominance of herbivorous insects (indirect effect); and further demonstrate (3) a lack of top-down control of herbivores by predators (birds and arthropods). We conclude that forest loss favors insect herbivory by undermining the bottom-up control (presumably reduced plant antiherbivore defense mechanisms) in forests dominated by fast-growing pioneer plant species, and by improving the conditions required for herbivores proliferation. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling Mediterranean forest structure using airborne laser scanning data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottalico, Francesca; Chirici, Gherardo; Giannini, Raffaello; Mele, Salvatore; Mura, Matteo; Puxeddu, Michele; McRoberts, Ronald E.; Valbuena, Ruben; Travaglini, Davide

2017-05-01

The conservation of biological diversity is recognized as a fundamental component of sustainable development, and forests contribute greatly to its preservation. Structural complexity increases the potential biological diversity of a forest by creating multiple niches that can host a wide variety of species. To facilitate greater understanding of the contributions of forest structure to forest biological diversity, we modeled relationships between 14 forest structure variables and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data for two Italian study areas representing two common Mediterranean forests, conifer plantations and coppice oaks subjected to irregular intervals of unplanned and non-standard silvicultural interventions. The objectives were twofold: (i) to compare model prediction accuracies when using two types of ALS metrics, echo-based metrics and canopy height model (CHM)-based metrics, and (ii) to construct inferences in the form of confidence intervals for large area structural complexity parameters. Our results showed that the effects of the two study areas on accuracies were greater than the effects of the two types of ALS metrics. In particular, accuracies were less for the more complex study area in terms of species composition and forest structure. However, accuracies achieved using the echo-based metrics were only slightly greater than when using the CHM-based metrics, thus demonstrating that both options yield reliable and comparable results. Accuracies were greatest for dominant height (Hd) (R2 = 0.91; RMSE% = 8.2%) and mean height weighted by basal area (R2 = 0.83; RMSE% = 10.5%) when using the echo-based metrics, 99th percentile of the echo height distribution and interquantile distance. For the forested area, the generalized regression (GREG) estimate of mean Hd was similar to the simple random sampling (SRS) estimate, 15.5 m for GREG and 16.2 m SRS. Further, the GREG estimator with standard error of 0.10 m was considerable more precise than the SRS estimator with standard error of 0.69 m.

Effects of white-tailed deer and invasive plants on the herb layer of suburban forests.

PubMed

Morrison, Janet A

2017-11-01

Lack of hunting and predators and proximity to human communities make suburban forests prone to high deer abundance and non-native plant invasions. I investigated these likely drivers of community structure in the herb layers of six suburban forests in one region of New Jersey, USA. In 223 plots I assessed the herb layer response to 2.5 years with or without deer fencing and the early stage of invasion from seed additions of Microstegium vimineum , an invasive, annual grass. Non-native plants and herbaceous native plants were affected very little by fencing or M. vimineum invasion. In contrast, across all forests the combination of deer access and M. vimineum addition had a strongly negative effect on woody native percent cover. Forests differed in overall fencing effects on woody natives; their cover was greater in fenced plots in just three forests, suggesting greater deer pressure in those forests during the experiment. The early invasion by M. vimineum was greatest in two of these same forests, but was not influenced by fencing. Multi-group structural equation modelling compared two groups of forests that differed in vegetation abundance and other characteristics. It paralleled the results above and also showed no negative influence of non-native cover on native cover, even in the forests where non-native cover was greater. It identified a positive effect of light level on herb layer plants in the forests with less vegetation, and also revealed a positive effect of soil water potential (SWP) on non-native plants in the forests with more vegetation, which had higher SWP. These suburban forests within a common region varied widely in native and non-native herb layer abundance, the early success of M. vimineum invasion and the herb layer's response to early invasion and protection from deer.

Assessing the Impacts of forest degradation on water, energy, and carbon budgets in Amazon forest using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.; Xu, Y.; Longo, M.; Keller, M.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Fisher, R.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation not only alters carbon stocks and carbon fluxes, but also impacts physical land-surface properties such as albedo and roughness length. Such impacts are poorly quantified to date due to difficulties in accessing and maintaining observational infrastructures, and the lack of proper modeling tools for capturing the interactions among biophysical properties, ecosystem demography, and biogeochemical cycling in tropical forests. As a first step to address these limitations, we implemented a selective logging module into the Functional Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) and parameterized the model to reproduce the selective logging experiment at the Tapajos National Forest in Brazil. The model was spun up until it reached the steady state, and simulations with and without logging were compared with the eddy covariance flux towers located at the logged and intact sites. The sensitivity of simulated water, energy, and carbon fluxes to key plant functional traits (e.g. Vcmax and leaf longevity) were quantified by perturbing their values within their documented ranges. Our results suggest that the model can reproduce water and carbon fluxes in intact forests, although sensible heat fluxes were overestimated. The effects of logging intensity and techniques on fluxes were assessed by specifying different disturbance parameters in the models (e.g., size-dependent mortality rates associated with timber harvest, collateral damage, and mechanical damage for infrastructure construction). The model projections suggest that even though the degraded forests rapidly recover water and energy fluxes compared with old-growth forests, the recovery times for carbon stocks, forest structure and composition are much longer. In addition, the simulated recovery trajectories are highly dependent on choices of values for functional traits. Our study highlights the advantages of an Earth system modeling approach, constrained by observations, to quantify the complex interactions among forest degradation, ecosystem recovery, climate, and environmental factors. Our results also show the urgent need to improve the representations of key mechanisms and traits to better capture forest degradation dynamics in Earth System Models.

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China

PubMed Central

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J.; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-01

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change. PMID:26725308

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.

PubMed

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-04

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change.

Testing a Landsat-based approach for mapping disturbance causality in U.S. forests

Treesearch

Todd A. Schroeder; Karen G. Schleeweis; Gretchen G. Moisen; Chris Toney; Warren B. Cohen; Elizabeth A. Freeman; Zhiqiang Yang; Chengquan Huang

2017-01-01

In light of Earth's changing climate and growing human population, there is an urgent need to improve monitoring of natural and anthropogenic disturbanceswhich effect forests' ability to sequester carbon and provide other ecosystem services. In this study, a two-step modeling approach was used to map the type and timing of forest disturbances occurring...

Distributive Effects of Forest Service Attempts to Maintain Community Stability

Treesearch

Steven E. Daniels; William F. Hyde; David N. Wear

1991-01-01

Community stability is an objective of USDA Forest Service timber sales. This paper examines that objective, and the success the Forest Service can have in attaining it, through its intended maintenance of a constant volume timber harvest schedule. We apply a three-factor, two-sector modified general equilibrium model with empirical evidence from the timber-based...

Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes

Treesearch

Andrew J. Hansen; Ronald P. Neilson; Virginia H. Dale; Curtis H. Flather; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Currie; Sarah Shafer; Rosamonde Cook; Partick J. Bartlein

2001-01-01

This article serves as a primer on forest biodiversity as a key component of global change. We first synthesize current knowledge of interactions among climate, land use, and biodiversity. We then summarize the results of new analyses on the potential effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity. Our models project how possible future climates may...

Assessing stand-level climate change risk using forest inventory data and species distribution models

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Louis R. Iverson; Jon Fosgitt; Stephen D. Handler; Matt Dallman; Scott Thomasma; Brad Hutnik; Christopher W. Swanston

2017-01-01

Climate change is having important effects on forest ecosystems, presenting a challenge for natural resource professionals to reduce climate-associated impacts while still achieving diverse management objectives. Regional projections of climate change and forest response are becoming more readily available, but managers are still searching for practical ways to apply...

Comparison of cropland and forest surface temperatures across the conterminous United States

Treesearch

James D. Wickham; Timothy G. Wade; Kurt H. Riitters

2012-01-01

Global climate models (GCM) investigating the effects of land cover on climate have found that replacing extra-tropical forest with cropland promotes cooling. We compared cropland and forest surface temperatures across the continental United States in 16 cells that were approximately 1◦ × 2◦ using 1 km2 MODIS land surface...

Simulating stand-level harvest prescriptions across landscapes: LANDIS PRO harvest module design

Treesearch

Jacob S. Fraser; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Wen J. Wang; Frank R. Thompson

2013-01-01

Forest landscape models (FLMs) are an important tool for assessing the long-term cumulative effects of harvest over large spatial extents. However, they have not been commonly used to guide forest management planning and on-the-ground operations. This is largely because FLMs track relatively simplistic vegetation information such as age cohort presence/absence, forest...

Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests in the Southwest USA

Treesearch

James H. Thorne; Hyeyeong Choe; Peter A. Stine; Jeanne C. Chambers; Andrew Holguin; Amber C. Kerr; Mark W. Schwartz

2017-01-01

Climate change effects are already apparent in some Southwestern US forests and are expected to intensify in the coming decades, via direct (temperature, precipitation) and indirect (fire, pests, pathogens) stressors. We grouped Southwestern forests into ten major types to assess their climate exposure by 2070 using two global climate models (GCMs) and two emission...

Impacts of the Jones Act on the Alaska forest products trade.

Treesearch

K.C. Jackson; C.W. McKetta

1986-01-01

Alaska forest products trade flows for 1982 were studied to determine the effects of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920 (the Jones Act). Information was collected from timber producers, forest product industries, and waterborne shippers in Alaska, British Columbia, and the Pacific Northwest. Trade flows were simulated, using a partial equilibrium model based on resource...

Communicating forest management science and practices through visualized and animated media approaches to community presentations: An exploration and assessment

Treesearch

Donald E. Zimmerman; Carol Akerelrea; Jane Kapler Smith; Garrett J. O' Keefe

2006-01-01

Natural-resource managers have used a variety of computer-mediated presentation methods to communicate management practices to diverse publics. We explored the effects of visualizing and animating predictions from mathematical models in computerized presentations explaining forest succession (forest growth and change through time), fire behavior, and management options...

The simulation of surface fire spread based on Rothermel model in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain (Jilin, China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Hang; Jin, Hui; Zhao, Ying; Fan, Yuguang; Qin, Liwu; Chen, Qinghong; Huang, Liya; Jia, Xiang; Liu, Lijie; Dai, Yuhong; Xiao, Ying

2018-03-01

The forest-fire not only brings great loss to natural resources, but also destructs the ecosystem and reduces the soil fertility, causing some natural disasters as soil erosion and debris flow. However, due to the lack of the prognosis for forest fire spreading trend in forest fire fighting, it is difficult to formulate rational and effective fire-fighting scheme. In the event of forest fire, achieving accurate judgment to the fire behavior would greatly improve the fire-fighting efficiency, and reduce heavy losses caused by fire. Researches on forest fire spread simulation can effectively reduce the loss of disasters. The present study focused on the simulation of "29 May 2012" wildfire in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Basic data were retrieved from the "29 May 2012" wildfire and field survey. A self-development forest fire behavior simulated program based on Rothermel Model was used in the simulation. Kappa coefficient and Sørensen index were employed to evaluate the simulation accuracy. The results showed that: The perimeter of simulated burned area was 4.66 km, the area was 56.47 hm2 and the overlapped burned area was 33.68 hm2, and the estimated rate of fire spread was 0.259 m/s. Between the simulated fire and actual fire, the Kappa coefficient was 0.7398 and the Sørensen co-efficient was 0.7419. This proved the application of Rothermel model to conduct fire behavior simulation in windthrow meadow was feasible. It can achieve the goal of forecasting for the spread behavior in windthrow area of Changbai Mountain. Thus, our self-development program based on the Rothermel model can provide a effective forecast of fire spread, which will facilitate the fire suppression work.

Modeling the Effects of Drought, Fire, Beetles, and Management on Future Carbon Cycling in the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hicke, J. A.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Levis, S.; Kent, J.

2017-12-01

Fire and beetle outbreaks can have substantial impacts on forest structure, composition, and function and these types of disturbances are expected to increase in the future. Therefore understanding the ecological impacts of these disturbances into the future is important. We used ecosystem process modeling to estimate the future occurrence of fire and beetle outbreaks and their impacts on forest resilience and carbon sequestration. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to better represent forest growth and mortality in the western US through multiple avenues: 1) we increased the ecological resolution to recognize 14 forest types common to the region; 2) we improved CLM4.5's ability to handle drought stress by adding forest type-specific controls on stomatal conductance and increased rates of leaf shed during periods of low soil moisture; 3) we developed and implemented a mechanistic model of beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality; 4) we modified the current fire module to account for more refined forest types; and 5) we developed multiple scenarios of harvest based on past harvest rates and proposed changes in land management policies. We ran CLM4.5 in offline mode with climate forcing data. We compare future forest growth rates and carbon sequestration with historical metrics to estimate the combined influence of future disturbances on forest composition and carbon sequestration in the western US.

Modeling ozone uptake by urban and peri-urban forest: a case study in the Metropolitan City of Rome.

PubMed

Fusaro, Lina; Mereu, Simone; Salvatori, Elisabetta; Agliari, Elena; Fares, Silvano; Manes, Fausto

2018-03-01

Urban and peri-urban forests are green infrastructures (GI) that play a substantial role in delivering ecosystem services such as the amelioration of air quality by the removal of air pollutants, among which is ozone (O 3 ), which is the most harmful pollutant in Mediterranean metropolitan areas. Models may provide a reliable estimate of gas exchanges between vegetation and atmosphere and are thus a powerful tool to quantify and compare O 3 removal in different contexts. The present study modeled the O 3 stomatal uptake at canopy level of an urban and a peri-urban forest in the Metropolitan City of Rome in two different years. Results show different rates of O 3 fluxes between the two forests, due to different exposure to the pollutant, management practice effects on forest structure and functionality, and environmental conditions, namely, different stressors affecting the gas exchange rates of the two GIs. The periodic components of the time series calculated by means of the spectral analysis show that seasonal variation of modeled canopy transpiration is driven by precipitation in peri-urban forests, whereas in the urban forest seasonal variations are driven by vapor pressure deficit of ambient air. Moreover, in the urban forest high water availability during summer months, owing to irrigation practice, leads to an increase in O 3 uptake, thus suggesting that irrigation may enhance air phytoremediation in urban areas.

Soil organic carbon dynamics across a nitrogen deposition gradient: application of the PnET-SOM model to northeastern forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonitto, C.; Goodale, C. L.; Ollinger, S. V.; Jenkins, J.

2009-12-01

Anthropogenic forcing of the C and N cycles has caused rapid change in atmospheric CO2 and N deposition, with complex and uncertain effects on forest C and N balance. We developed the PnET-SOM model to enhance the model description of carbon and nitrogen coupling. Here we applied PnET-SOM to study changes to ecosystem carbon storage across a nitrogen deposition gradient. We designed the PnET-SOM model to: 1) represent SOM structured around measurable SOM pools, 2) expand simulated soil horizon complexity beyond the 1-box approach to hydrology and SOM structure used in PnET-CN, 3) model humified and mineral associated SOM using parameters derived from C14 field studies, and 4) couple C and N cycles to allow N-limitation of decomposition and plant growth. We explicitly modeled labile, biochemically recalcitrant (humified SOM), and physically-chemically protected (mineral associated SOM) C pools. These SOM pools are modeled in distinct soil horizons including: a forest floor, a mixed organic horizon, an A horizon, and a B horizon. Slow turnover pools of the A and B horizon constitute a significant proportion of SOC; explicitly modeling a deeper soil profile is important for estimating ecosystem SOC storage. In the latest version of PnET-SOM, we described N mineralization-immobilization in the forest floor based on equations derived in the LIDET synthesis study. Validation of the PnET-SOM model was conducted using 1) long-term water flux and nitrate leaching data from the Hubbard Brook LTER, 2) CO2 respiration observations from the Harvard Forest LTER, and 3) C and N stock and flux observations from the Harvard Forest LTER. In this work, we applied the PnET-SOM model to study the effects of an N deposition gradient on SOC dynamics over a 300 year simulation. We represented the effects of N deposition on litter decomposition by varying the exponential decay parameters of the litter layer based on observations from the Harvard Forest N addition experiment. We derived the change in limit value across the N deposition gradient simulated by applying a polynomial fit to limit values observed in the Harvard Forest N addition experimental plots. In PnET-SOM, changes in SOC dynamics under varying N deposition rates are derived from 1) change in litter decomposition rate, which directly affects OM inputs into soil pools, and 2) altered N availability which limits decomposition of OM throughout the soil profile. In our model application, the coarse woody debris pool decreased with increasing N deposition, while the forest floor pools increased. Relative to SOC pools under current N deposition rates at the Harvard Forest (8 gN/m2), deposition at a rate of 20 gN/m2 over a 300 year simulation resulted in a 3.4% increase in the O horizon humified SOC pool, a 2.3% increase in the A horizon humified SOC pool, a 1.3% increase in the A horizon mineral associated SOC pool, and a 0.14% increase in the B horizon mineral associated SOC pool.

Accelerating forest growth enhancement due to climate and atmospheric changes in British Colombia, Canada over 1956-2001.

PubMed

Wu, Chaoyang; Hember, Robbie A; Chen, Jing M; Kurz, Werner A; Price, David T; Boisvenue, Céline; Gonsamo, Alemu; Ju, Weimin

2014-03-25

Changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen (N) over the last several decades have induced significant effects on forest carbon (C) cycling. However, contributions of individual factors are largely unknown because of the lack of long observational data and the undifferentiating between intrinsic factors and external forces in current ecosystem models. Using over four decades (1956-2001) of forest inventory data at 3432 permanent samples in maritime and boreal regions of British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, growth enhancements were reconstructed and partitioned into contributions of climate, CO2 and N after removal of age effects. We found that climate change contributed a particularly large amount (over 70%) of the accumulated growth enhancement, while the remaining was attributed to CO2 and N, respectively. We suggest that climate warming is contributing a widespread growth enhancement in B.C.'s forests, but ecosystem models should consider CO2 and N fertilization effects to fully explain inventory-based observations.

Lizard activity and abundance greater in burned habitat of a xeric montane forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fouts, Kevin L.; Moore, Clinton; Johnson, Kristine D.; Maerz, John C.

2017-01-01

Restoring the natural or historical state of ecosystems is a common objective among resource managers, but determining whether desired system responses to management actions are occurring is often protracted and challenging. For wildlife, the integration of mechanistic habitat modeling with population monitoring may provide expedited measures of management effectiveness and improve understanding of how management actions succeed or fail to recover populations. Southern Appalachia is a region of high biodiversity that has undergone dramatic change as a result of human activities such as historic logging, exotic invasions, and alteration of disturbance regimes—including reduction in application of fire. Contemporary efforts to restore fire-maintained ecosystems within southern Appalachian forests require tools to assess the effects of fire management practices on individual animal fitness and relate them to corresponding influences on species abundance. Using automated sensing equipment, we investigated the effects of burned forests on reptile habitat suitability within the western portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. Specifically, we used microclimate measurements to model northern fence lizard Sceloporus undulatus hyacinthinus diurnal activity budgets in unburned and variable burn age (3–27-y) forest stands. We estimated northern fence lizard occurrence and abundance along transects through burned and unburned forests. Burned forest stands had microclimates that resulted in longer modeled daily activity periods under most conditions during summer. S. undulatus abundance was 4.75 times greater on burned stands compared to paired unburned stands, although the relationship between burn age and abundance was not well determined. Results suggest the more open habitat structure of burned areas within these xeric pine–oak forests may benefit S. undulatus.

Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: An application of the Global Forest Products Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buongiorno, J.; Raunikar, R.; Zhu, S.

2011-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial roundwood by nearly 30% in 2030. The price of sawnwood and panels would be 15% higher. The price of paper would be 3% higher. Concurrently, the demand for all manufactured wood products would be lower in all countries, but the production would rise in countries with competitive advantage. The global value added in wood processing industries would be 1% lower in 2030. The forest stock would be 2% lower for the world and 4% lower for Asia. These effects varied substantially by country. ?? 2011 Department of Forest Economics, SLU Ume??, Sweden.

Carbon dynamics of intensively managed forest along a full rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Bonnefond, J.; Burlett, R.; Lamaud, E.; Sartore, M.; Trichet, P.; Chipeaux, C.; Lambrot, C.; Kowalski, A. S.; Loustau, D.

2012-12-01

Temperate and tropical forests are increasingly exploited for wood and biomass extraction and only one third of forest area was considered as primary in the recent FRA in 2010. Management practices affect the soil-forest-atmosphere continuum through various effects on soil and surface properties. They result ultimately in either positive or negative changes in the biomass and soil carbon pools but, if any, few datasets or modeling tools are available for quantifying their impacts on the net carbon balance of forest stands. To analyse these effects, the net half-hourly fluxes of CO2, water vapour and heat exchanges were monitored for 23 years in two closed stands of maritime pines in southwestern France. Carbon content of the aboveground biomass was measured annually and soil pools 10-early in the younger stand and 5-yearly in the mature stand. For analysing the data collected and disentangling the climate and management effects, we used the three components process-based model GRAECO+ (Loustau et al. this session) linking a 3D radiative transfer and photosynthesis model, MAESTRA, a soil carbon model adapted from ROTH-C and a plant growth model. Eddy flux data were processed, gapfilled and partitioned using the methodological recommendations (Aubinet et al. 2000, Adv. Eco. Res:30, 114-173, Falge et al. 2001, Agr. For. Meteo. : 107, 43-69, Reichstein et al. 2005, Glob. Change Biol., 11:1424-1439). Analysis of the sequence showed that, whether by an increased sensitivity to soil drought compared to the pines or by a rapid re-colonization of the inter-row after understorey removal and plowing, the weeded vegetation contributed to create specific intra-annual dynamics of the fluxes and therefore, controls the dynamics of carbon balance of the stand. After three growing seasons, the stand was already a carbon sink, but the impact of thinning and weeded vegetation removal at the age of 5-year brought the balance to almost neutral. We interpret this change as the combined effects of the reduction of the LAI, the enhancement of the heterotrophic respiration related to the decomposition of dead materials and the improvement of the mineralization of the large stock of soil organic matter by tillage. At the mature stage, the stand remains consistently a carbon sink and CO2 fluxes were insensitive to thinning. Conversely, the carbon balance was sensitive to climate effects as evidenced by repeated drastic reductions in NEP caused by soil drought. Our data underlines the importance of disturbances linked to forest management for the forest carbon balance during the early stage of tree growth. Since management intensification tends to shorten the forest life cycle and enhance the share of the young stages, our results confirm that the consequence of management operations on the carbon cycle in forest may revert intensified forest stands from a net sink to a source and should be accounted for carefully.

Carbon savings with transatlantic trade in pellets: accounting for market-driven effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiwei; Dwivedi, Puneet; Abt, Robert; Khanna, Madhu

2015-11-01

Exports of pellets from the United States (US) are growing significantly to meet the demand for renewable energy in the European Union. This transatlantic trade in pellets has raised questions about the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of these pellets and their effects on conventional forest product markets in the US. This paper examines the GHG intensity of pellets exported from the US using either forest biomass only or forest and agricultural biomass combined. We develop an integrated dynamic, price-endogenous, partial equilibrium model of the forestry, agricultural, and transportation sectors in the US to investigate not only the direct life-cycle GHG intensity of pellets but also the accompanying indirect market and land use effects induced by changes in prices of forest and agricultural products over the 2007-2032 period. Across different scenarios of high and low pellet demand that can be met with either forest biomass only or with forest and agricultural biomass, we find that the GHG intensity of pellet based electricity is 74% to 85% lower than that of coal-based electricity. We also find that the GHG intensity of pellets produced using agricultural and forest biomass is 28% to 34% lower than that of pellets produced using forest biomass only. GHG effects due to induced direct and indirect changes in forest carbon stock caused by changes in harvest rotations, changes in land use and in conventional wood production account for 11% to 26% of the overall GHG intensity of pellets produced from forest biomass only; these effects are negative with the use of forest and agricultural biomass.

Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Arjan M.G. De Bruijn; Robert E. Pangle; Jean-Marc Limousin; Nate G. McDowell; William T. Pockman; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jordan D. Muss; Mark E. Kubiske

2015-01-01

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and...

Model forest landscape change in the Missouri Ozarks under alternative management practices

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; David R. Larsen; William D. Dijak

2000-01-01

We used a spatially explicit landscape model, LANDIS, to simulate the effects of five management alternatives on a 3216 ha forest landscape in southeast Missouri, USA. We compared management alternatives among two intensities of even-aged management with clearcutting, uneven-aged management with group selection harvest, a mixture of even- and uneven-aged management,...

Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Anantha M. Prasad

2002-01-01

Global climate change could have profound effects on the Earth's biota, including large redistributions of tree species and forest types. We used DISTRIB, a deterministic regression tree analysis model, to examine environmental drivers related to current forest-species distributions and then model potential suitable habitat under five climate change scenarios...

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change

PubMed Central

Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E.; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change. PMID:26295478

Local variability mediates vulnerability of trout populations to land use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penaluna, Brooke E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Railsback, Steve F.; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E.

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change.

PubMed

Penaluna, Brooke E; Dunham, Jason B; Railsback, Steve F; Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L; Bilby, Robert E; Safeeq, Mohammad; Skaugset, Arne E

2015-01-01

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007-2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.

Inversion analysis of estimating interannual variability and its uncertainties in biotic and abiotic parameters of a parsimonious physiologically based model after wind disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, M.; Yokozawa, M.; Richardson, A. D.; Kohyama, T.

2011-12-01

The effects of wind disturbance on interannual variability in ecosystem CO2 exchange have been assessed in two forests in northern Japan, i.e., a young, even-aged, monocultured, deciduous forest and an uneven-aged mixed forest of evergreen and deciduous trees, including some over 200 years old using eddy covariance (EC) measurements during 2004-2008. The EC measurements have indicated that photosynthetic recovery of trees after a huge typhoon occurred during early September in 2004 activated annual carbon uptake of both forests due to changes in physiological response of tree leaves during their growth stages. However, little have been resolved about what biotic and abiotic factors regulated interannual variability in heat, water and carbon exchange between an atmosphere and forests. In recent years, an inverse modeling analysis has been utilized as a powerful tool to estimate biotic and abiotic parameters that might affect heat, water and CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and forest of a parsimonious physiologically based model. We conducted the Bayesian inverse model analysis for the model with the EC measurements. The preliminary result showed that the above model-derived NEE values were consistent with observed ones on the hourly basis with optimized parameters by Baysian inversion. In the presentation, we would examine interannual variability in biotic and abiotic parameters related to heat, water and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and forests after disturbance by typhoon.

Analyzing spatial and temporal trends in Aboveground Biomass within the Acadian New England Forests using the complete Landsat Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilbride, J. B.; Fraver, S.; Ayrey, E.; Weiskittel, A.; Braaten, J.; Hughes, J. M.; Hayes, D. J.

2017-12-01

Forests within the New England states and Canadian Maritime provinces, here described as the Acadian New England (ANE) forests, have undergone substantial disturbances due to insect, fire, and anthropogenic factors. Through repeated satellite observations captures by USGS's Landsat program, 45 years of disturbance information can be incorporated into modeling efforts to better understand the spatial and temporal trends in forest above ground biomass (AGB). Using Google's Earth Engine, annual mosaics were developed for the ANE study area and then disturbance and recovery metrics were developed using the temporal segmentation algorithm VeRDET. Normalization procedures were developed to incorporate the Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS, 1972 - 1985) data alongside the modern era of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM, 1984-2013), Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+, 1999 - present), and Operational Land Imager (OLI, 2013- present) data products. This has enabled the creation of a dataset with an unprecedented spatial and temporal view of forest landscape change. Model training was performed using was the Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) and New Brunswick Permanent Sample Plot data datasets. Modeling was performed using parametric techniques such as mixed effects models and non-parametric techniques such as k-NN imputation and generalized boosted regression. We compare the biomass estimate and model accuracy to other inventory and modeling studies produced within this study area. The spatial and temporal patterns of stock changes are analyzed against resource policy, land ownership changes, and forest management.

Effects of exurban development and temperature on bird species in the southern Appalachians.

PubMed

Lumpkin, Heather A; Pearson, Scott M

2013-10-01

Land-use dynamics and climatic gradients have large effects on many terrestrial systems. Exurban development, one of the fastest growing forms of land use in the United States, may affect wildlife through habitat fragmentation and building presence may alter habitat quality. We studied the effects of residential development and temperature gradients on bird species occurrence at 140 study sites in the southern Appalachian Mountains (North Carolina, U.S.A.) that varied with respect to building density and elevation. We used occupancy models to determine 36 bird species' associations with building density, forest canopy cover, average daily mean temperature, and an interaction between building density and mean temperature. Responses varied with habitat requirement, breeding range, and migration distance. Building density and mean temperature were both included in the top occupancy models for 19 of 36 species and a building density by temperature interaction was included in models for 8 bird species. As exurban development expands in the southern Appalachians, interior forest species and Neotropical migrants are likely to decline, but shrubland or edge species are not likely to benefit. Overall, effects of building density were greater than those of forest canopy cover. Exurban development had a greater effect on birds at high elevations due to a greater abundance of sensitive forest-interior species and Neotropical migrants. A warming climate may exacerbate these negative effects. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Fuel treatment effectiveness in forests of the upper Atlantic Coastal Plain—an evaluation at two spatial scales

Treesearch

Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard

2012-01-01

Fuel treatment effectiveness in Southern forests has been demonstrated using fire behavior modeling and observations of reduced wildfire area and tree damage. However, assessments of treatment effectiveness may be improved with a more rigorous accounting of the fuel characteristics. We present two case studies to introduce a relatively new approach to characterizing...

Future Wildfire and Managed Fire Interactions in the Lake Tahoe Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheller, R.; Kretchun, A.

2017-12-01

Managing large forested landscape in the context of a changing climate and altered disturbance regimes presents new challenges and require integrated assessments of forest disturbance, management, succession, and the carbon cycle. Successful management under these circumstances will require information about trade-offs among multiple objectives and opportunities for spatially optimized landscape-scale management. Improved information about the effects of climate on forest communities, disturbance feedbacks, and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies enables actionable options for landscape managers. We evaluated the effects of fire suppression, wildfires, and forest fuel (thinning) treatments on the long-term carbon storage potential for Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) forests under various climate futures. We simulated management scenarios that encompass fuel treatments across the larger landscape, beyond the Wildland Urban Interface. We improved upon current fire modeling under climate change via an integrated fire modeling module that, a) explicitly captures the influence of climate, fuels, topography, active fire management (e.g., fire suppression), and fuel treatments, and b) can be parameterized from available data, e.g., remote sensing, field reporting, fire databases, expert opinion. These improvements increase geographic flexibility and decrease reliance on broad historical fire regime statistics - imperfect targets for a no analog future and require minimal parameterization and calibration. We assessed the interactions among fuel treatments, prescribe fire, fire suppression, and stochastically recurring wildfires. Predicted changes in climate and ignition patterns in response to future climatic conditions, vegetation dynamics, and fuel treatments indicate larger potential long-term effects on C emissions, forest structure, and forest composition than prior studies.

Modeling forest disturbance and recovery in secondary subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Van Bloem, S. J.

2015-12-01

Because of human pressures, the need to understand and predict the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests is urgent. Through modifications to the ZELIG vegetation demographic model, including the development of species- and site-specific parameters and internal modifications, the capability to predict forest change within the Guanica State Forest in Puerto Rico can now be accomplished. One objective was to test the capability of this new model (i.e. ZELIG-TROP) to predict successional patterns of secondary forests across a gradient of abandoned fields currently being reclaimed as forests. Model simulations found that abandoned fields that are on degraded lands have a delayed response to fully recover and reach a mature forest status during the simulated time period; 200 years. The forest recovery trends matched predictions published in other studies, such that attributes involving early resource acquisition (i.e. canopy height, canopy coverage, density) were the fastest to recover, but attributes used for structural development (i.e. biomass, basal area) were relatively slow in recovery. Biomass and basal area, two attributes that tend to increase during later successional stages, are significantly lower during the first 80-100 years of recovery compared to a mature forest, suggesting that the time scale of resilience in subtropical dry forests needs to be partially redefined. A second objective was to investigate the long and short-term effects of increasing hurricane disturbances on vegetation structure and dynamics, due to hurricanes playing an important role in maintaining dry forest structure in Puerto Rico. Hurricane disturbance simulations within ZELIG-TROP predicted that increasing hurricane intensity (i.e. up to 100% increase) did not lead to a large shift in long-term AGB or NPP. However, increased hurricane frequency did lead to a 5-40% decrease in AGB, and 32-50% increase in NPP, depending on the treatment. In addition, the modeling approach used here was able to track changes in litterfall, coarse woody debris, and other forest carbon components under various hurricane regimes, a critical step for understanding the future state of subtropical dry forests.

Modeling the effect of land use on carbon storage in the forests of the Pacific Northwest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Warren B.; Wallin, David O.; Harmon, Mark E.; Sollins, Philip; Daly, Christopher; Ferrell, William K.

1992-01-01

There is concern as to how the balance of carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem will change in response to a variety of land use practices. A study is described in which a methodology is being developed to help narrow this uncertainty for the temperate forets of the Pacific Northwest region of the US. A carbon storage model is being developed to respond to forest harvesting, the dominant use of land in the region. By linking the carbon model to satellite imagery and a climate simulation model, the current amount of carbon stored in the forests of the Pacific northwest is estimated. The archive of Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) images permits a 20-year historical perspective of land use changes in the region. With these data, the recent impact of regional land use in forest carbon stores is assessed.

Negligible influence of spatial autocorrelation in the assessment of fire effects in a mixed conifer forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Schwilk, D.W.

2009-01-01

Fire is an important feature of many forest ecosystems, although the quantification of its effects is compromised by the large scale at which fire occurs and its inherent unpredictability. A recurring problem is the use of subsamples collected within individual burns, potentially resulting in spatially autocorrelated data. Using subsamples from six different fires (and three unburned control areas) we show little evidence for strong spatial autocorrelation either before or after burning for eight measures of forest conditions (both fuels and vegetation). Additionally, including a term for spatially autocorrelated errors provided little improvement for simple linear models contrasting the effects of early versus late season burning. While the effects of spatial autocorrelation should always be examined, it may not always greatly influence assessments of fire effects. If high patch scale variability is common in Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forests, even following more than a century of fire exclusion, treatments designed to encourage further heterogeneity in forest conditions prior to the reintroduction of fire will likely be unnecessary.

Parameterization of the 3-PG model for Pinus elliottii stands using alternative methods to estimate fertility rating, biomass partitioning and canopy closure

Treesearch

Carlos A. Gonzalez-Benecke; Eric J. Jokela; Wendell P. Cropper; Rosvel Bracho; Daniel J. Leduc

2014-01-01

The forest simulation model, 3-PG, has been widely applied as a useful tool for predicting growth of forest species in many countries. The model has the capability to estimate the effects of management, climate and site characteristics on many stand attributes using easily available data. Currently, there is an increasing interest in estimating biomass and assessing...

The effects of floodplain forest restoration and logjams on flood risk and flood hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Simon; Sear, David A.; Sykes, Tim; Odoni, Nicholas

2015-04-01

Flooding is the most common natural catastrophe, accounting for around half of all natural disaster related deaths and causing economic losses in Europe estimated at over € 2bn per year. In addition flooding is expected to increase in magnitude and frequency with climate change, effectively shortening the return period for a given magnitude flood. Increasing the height and extent of hard engineered defences in response to increased risk is both unsustainable and undesirable. Thus alternative approaches to flood mitigation are needed such as harnessing vegetation processes to slow the passage of flood waves and increase local flood storage. However, our understanding of these effects at the catchment scale is limited. In this presentation we demonstrate the effects of two river restoration approaches upon catchment scale flood hydrology. The addition of large wood to river channels during river restoration projects is a popular method of attempting to improve physical and biological conditions in degraded river systems. Projects utilising large wood can involve the installation of engineered logjams (ELJs), the planting and enhancement of riparian forests, or a combination of both. Altering the wood loading of a channel through installation of ELJs and increasing floodplain surface complexity through encouraging mature woodland could be expected to increase the local hydraulic resistance, increasing the timing and duration of overbank events locally and therefore increasing the travel time of a flood wave through a reach. This reach-scale effect has been documented in models and the field; however the impacts of these local changes at a catchment scale remains to be illustrated. Furthermore there is limited knowledge of how changing successional stages of a restored riparian forest through time may affect its influence on hydromorphic processes. We present results of a novel paired numerical modelling study. We model changes in flood hydrology based on a 98km² catchment using OVERFLOW; a simplified hydrological model using a spatially distributed unit hydrograph approach. Restoration scenarios for the hydrological modelling are informed by the development of a new conceptual model of riparian forest succession, including quantitative estimates of deadwood inputs to the system, using a numerical forest growth model. We explore scenarios using ELJs alone as well as managed and unmanaged riparian forest restoration at scales from reach to sub-catchment. We demonstrate that changes to catchment flood hydrology with restoration are highly location dependant and downstream flood peaks can in some cases increase through synchronisation of sub-catchment flood waves. We constrain magnitude estimates for increases and decreases in flood peaks for modelled restoration scenarios and scales. Finally we analyse the potential for using riparian forest restoration as part of an integrated flood risk management strategy, including specific examples of type and extent of restoration which may prove most beneficial.

Effects of preference heterogeneity among landowners on spatial conservation prioritization.

PubMed

Nielsen, Anne Sofie Elberg; Strange, Niels; Bruun, Hans Henrik; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2017-06-01

The participation of private landowners in conservation is crucial to efficient biodiversity conservation. This is especially the case in settings where the share of private ownership is large and the economic costs associated with land acquisition are high. We used probit regression analysis and historical participation data to examine the likelihood of participation of Danish forest owners in a voluntary conservation program. We used the results to spatially predict the likelihood of participation of all forest owners in Denmark. We merged spatial data on the presence of forest, cadastral information on participation contracts, and individual-level socioeconomic information about the forest owners and their households. We included predicted participation in a probability model for species survival. Uninformed and informed (included land owner characteristics) models were then incorporated into a spatial prioritization for conservation of unmanaged forests. The choice models are based on sociodemographic data on the entire population of Danish forest owners and historical data on their participation in conservation schemes. Inclusion in the model of information on private landowners' willingness to supply land for conservation yielded at intermediate budget levels up to 30% more expected species coverage than the uninformed prioritization scheme. Our landowner-choice model provides an example of moving toward more implementable conservation planning. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Local and landscape scale factors influencing edge effects on woodland salamanders.

PubMed

Moseley, Kurtis R; Ford, W Mark; Edwards, John W

2009-04-01

We examined local and landscape-scale variable influence on the depth and magnitude of edge effects on woodland salamanders in mature mixed mesophytic and northern hardwood forest adjacent to natural gas well sites maintained as wildlife openings. We surveyed woodland salamander occurrence from June-August 2006 at 33 gas well sites in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia. We used an information-theoretic approach to test nine a priori models explaining landscape-scale effects on woodland salamander capture proportion within 20 m of field edge. Salamander capture proportion was greater within 0-60 m than 61-100 m of field edges. Similarly, available coarse woody debris proportion was greater within 0-60 m than 61-100 m of field edge. Our ASPECT model, that incorporated the single variable aspect, received the strongest support for explaining landscape-scale effects on salamander capture proportion within 20 m of opening edge. The ASPECT model indicated that fewer salamanders occurred within 20 m of opening edges on drier, hotter southwestern aspects than in moister, cooler northeastern aspects. Our results suggest that forest habitat adjacent to maintained edges and with sufficient cover still can provide suitable habitat for woodland salamander species in central Appalachian mixed mesophytic and northern hardwood forests. Additionally, our modeling results support the contention that edge effects are more severe on southwesterly aspects. These results underscore the importance of distinguishing among different edge types as well as placing survey locations within a landscape context when investigating edge impacts on woodland salamanders.

Detecting fragmentation extinction thresholds for forest understory plant species in peninsular Spain.

PubMed

Rueda, Marta; Moreno Saiz, Juan Carlos; Morales-Castilla, Ignacio; Albuquerque, Fabio S; Ferrero, Mila; Rodríguez, Miguel Á

2015-01-01

Ecological theory predicts that fragmentation aggravates the effects of habitat loss, yet empirical results show mixed evidences, which fail to support the theory instead reinforcing the primary importance of habitat loss. Fragmentation hypotheses have received much attention due to their potential implications for biodiversity conservation, however, animal studies have traditionally been their main focus. Here we assess variation in species sensitivity to forest amount and fragmentation and evaluate if fragmentation is related to extinction thresholds in forest understory herbs and ferns. Our expectation was that forest herbs would be more sensitive to fragmentation than ferns due to their lower dispersal capabilities. Using forest cover percentage and the proportion of this percentage occurring in the largest patch within UTM cells of 10-km resolution covering Peninsular Spain, we partitioned the effects of forest amount versus fragmentation and applied logistic regression to model occurrences of 16 species. For nine models showing robustness according to a set of quality criteria we subsequently defined two empirical fragmentation scenarios, minimum and maximum, and quantified species' sensitivity to forest contraction with no fragmentation, and to fragmentation under constant forest cover. We finally assessed how the extinction threshold of each species (the habitat amount below which it cannot persist) varies under no and maximum fragmentation. Consistent with their preference for forest habitats probability occurrences of all species decreased as forest cover contracted. On average, herbs did not show significant sensitivity to fragmentation whereas ferns were favored. In line with theory, fragmentation yielded higher extinction thresholds for two species. For the remaining species, fragmentation had either positive or non-significant effects. We interpret these differences as reflecting species-specific traits and conclude that although forest amount is of primary importance for the persistence of understory plants, to neglect the impact of fragmentation for some species can lead them to local extinction.

Storylines of combined land use and climatic drivers and their hydrological impacts in an alpine catchment (Brixental/Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strasser, Ulrich; Förster, Kristian; Meissl, Gertraud; Marke, Thomas; Schermer, Markus; Stotten, Rike; Formayer, Herbert; Themessl, Matthias

2017-04-01

We present a numerical modelling experiment with storylines of coupled land use and climate evolution as input in the physically-based, distributed water balance model WaSiM. The aim is to quantify the effects of these two framing components on the future water cycle. The test site for the simulations is the catchment of the Brixentaler Ache in Tyrol/Austria (47.5°N, 322 km2). The climatic background is defined by simulations for the A1B and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios until 2050. These two climate projections were combined with three future land use developments for forest management, developed in an inter- and transdisciplinary assessment with local actors using plausible and consisent projections for forest management, policy, social cooperation, tourism and economy: (i) Ecological adaptation: The forest management consequently applies the political guidelines, and the forest cover is dominated by an ecological, place-adapted mixed cultivation with a harmonious age structure. (ii) Economical overexploitation and wildness: The increase in efficiency, cost reduction and short term results are in focus of the forest management. (iii) Withdrawal and wildness: Cultivation in general is decreasing, and the forest becomes vulnerable against natural hazards. A new module for snow-canopy interaction simulation, providing explicit rates of intercepted and sublimated snow from the trees and stems of the different forest stands, has been implemented in WaSiM. The new version of the model is used to model the coupled future climate/land use storylines for the Brixental. Results show the effects of climate change and land use on the water balance and streamflow in the catchment.

[Parameter sensitivity of simulating net primary productivity of Larix olgensis forest based on BIOME-BGC model].

PubMed

He, Li-hong; Wang, Hai-yan; Lei, Xiang-dong

2016-02-01

Model based on vegetation ecophysiological process contains many parameters, and reasonable parameter values will greatly improve simulation ability. Sensitivity analysis, as an important method to screen out the sensitive parameters, can comprehensively analyze how model parameters affect the simulation results. In this paper, we conducted parameter sensitivity analysis of BIOME-BGC model with a case study of simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of Larix olgensis forest in Wangqing, Jilin Province. First, with the contrastive analysis between field measurement data and the simulation results, we tested the BIOME-BGC model' s capability of simulating the NPP of L. olgensis forest. Then, Morris and EFAST sensitivity methods were used to screen the sensitive parameters that had strong influence on NPP. On this basis, we also quantitatively estimated the sensitivity of the screened parameters, and calculated the global, the first-order and the second-order sensitivity indices. The results showed that the BIOME-BGC model could well simulate the NPP of L. olgensis forest in the sample plot. The Morris sensitivity method provided a reliable parameter sensitivity analysis result under the condition of a relatively small sample size. The EFAST sensitivity method could quantitatively measure the impact of simulation result of a single parameter as well as the interaction between the parameters in BIOME-BGC model. The influential sensitive parameters for L. olgensis forest NPP were new stem carbon to new leaf carbon allocation and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio, the effect of their interaction was significantly greater than the other parameter' teraction effect.

BCDForest: a boosting cascade deep forest model towards the classification of cancer subtypes based on gene expression data.

PubMed

Guo, Yang; Liu, Shuhui; Li, Zhanhuai; Shang, Xuequn

2018-04-11

The classification of cancer subtypes is of great importance to cancer disease diagnosis and therapy. Many supervised learning approaches have been applied to cancer subtype classification in the past few years, especially of deep learning based approaches. Recently, the deep forest model has been proposed as an alternative of deep neural networks to learn hyper-representations by using cascade ensemble decision trees. It has been proved that the deep forest model has competitive or even better performance than deep neural networks in some extent. However, the standard deep forest model may face overfitting and ensemble diversity challenges when dealing with small sample size and high-dimensional biology data. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model, so-called BCDForest, to address cancer subtype classification on small-scale biology datasets, which can be viewed as a modification of the standard deep forest model. The BCDForest distinguishes from the standard deep forest model with the following two main contributions: First, a named multi-class-grained scanning method is proposed to train multiple binary classifiers to encourage diversity of ensemble. Meanwhile, the fitting quality of each classifier is considered in representation learning. Second, we propose a boosting strategy to emphasize more important features in cascade forests, thus to propagate the benefits of discriminative features among cascade layers to improve the classification performance. Systematic comparison experiments on both microarray and RNA-Seq gene expression datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in application of cancer subtype classification. The multi-class-grained scanning and boosting strategy in our model provide an effective solution to ease the overfitting challenge and improve the robustness of deep forest model working on small-scale data. Our model provides a useful approach to the classification of cancer subtypes by using deep learning on high-dimensional and small-scale biology data.

Improving the Interoperability of Disaster Models: a Case Study of Proposing Fireml for Forest Fire Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, W.; Wang, F.; Meng, Q.; Li, Z.; Liu, B.; Zheng, X.

2018-04-01

This paper presents a new standardized data format named Fire Markup Language (FireML), extended by the Geography Markup Language (GML) of OGC, to elaborate upon the fire hazard model. The proposed FireML is able to standardize the input and output documents of a fire model for effectively communicating with different disaster management systems to ensure a good interoperability. To demonstrate the usage of FireML and testify its feasibility, an adopted forest fire spread model being compatible with FireML is described. And a 3DGIS disaster management system is developed to simulate the dynamic procedure of forest fire spread with the defined FireML documents. The proposed approach will enlighten ones who work on other disaster models' standardization work.

Landsat analysis of tropical forest succession employing a terrain model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barringer, T. H.; Robinson, V. B.; Coiner, J. C.; Bruce, R. C.

1980-01-01

Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data have yielded a dual classification of rain forest and shadow in an analysis of a semi-deciduous forest on Mindonoro Island, Philippines. Both a spatial terrain model, using a fifth side polynomial trend surface analysis for quantitatively estimating the general spatial variation in the data set, and a spectral terrain model, based on the MSS data, have been set up. A discriminant analysis, using both sets of data, has suggested that shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral regions and can therefore be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data.

Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S. L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

2013-04-01

Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forest and leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. To accurately quantify the role of fire in historical and current regional forest carbon balance using models, one needs to explicitly simulate the new forest cohort that is established after fire. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate boreal forest fire CO2 emissions and follow-up recovery after a stand-replacing fire, with representation of postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the following self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against three clusters of postfire forest chronosequence observations in Canada and Alaska. Evaluation variables for simulated postfire carbon dynamics include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index (LAI), and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). The model simulation results, when forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history on each chronosequence site, generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m-2 yr-1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m-2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m-2). We find that current postfire forest carbon sink on evaluation sites observed by chronosequence methods is mainly driven by historical atmospheric CO2 increase when forests recover from fire disturbance. Historical climate generally exerts a negative effect, probably due to increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increase without sufficient increase in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon stocks evolution after fire, making it suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role on ecosystem carbon balance.

AmazonFACE: Assessing the Effects of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 on the Resilience of the Amazon Forest through Integrative Model-Experiment Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapola, D. M.

2015-12-01

The existence, magnitude and duration of a supposed "CO2 fertilization" effect in tropical forests remains largely undetermined, despite being suggested for nearly 20 years as a key knowledge gap for understanding the future resilience of Amazonian forests and its impact on the global carbon cycle. Reducing this uncertainty is critical for assessing the future of the Amazon region as well as its vulnerability to climate change. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) research program is an integrated model-experiment initiative of unprecedented scope in an old-growth Amazon forest near Manaus, Brazil - the first of its kind in tropical forest. The experimental treatment will simulate an atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of the future in order to address the question: "How will rising atmospheric CO2 affect the resilience of the Amazon forest, the biodiversity it harbors, and the ecosystem services it provides, in light of projected climatic changes?" AmazonFACE is divided into three phases: (I) pre-experimental ecological characterization of the research site; (II) pilot experiment comprised of two 30-m diameter plots, with one treatment plot maintained at elevated [CO2] (ambient +200 ppmv), and the other control plot at ambient [CO2]; and (III) a fully-replicated long-term experiment comprised of four pairs of control/treatment FACE plots maintained for 10 years. A team of scientists from Brazil, USA, Australia and Europe will employ state-of-the-art methods to study the forest inside these plots in terms of carbon metabolism and cycling, water use, nutrient cycling, forest community composition, and interactions with environmental stressors. All project phases also encompass ecosystem-modeling activities in a way such that models provide hypothesis to be verified in the experiment, which in turn will feed models to ultimately produce more accurate projections of the environment. Resulting datasets and analyses will be a valuable resource for a broad community, especially ecosystem and climate modelers, and policy-makers.

Remote sensing of forest dynamics and land use in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toomey, Michael Paul

The rich, vast Amazonian ecosystem is directly and indirectly threatened by human activities; remote sensing serves as an essential tool for monitoring, understanding and mitigating these threats. A multi-faceted body of work is described here, addressing three major issues that employ and advance remote sensing techniques for the study of Amazonia and other tropical rainforest regions. In Chapter 2, canopy reflectance modeling and satellite observations were used to quantify the effect of epiphylls on remote sensing of humid forests. Modeling simulations demonstrated sensitivity of canopy-level near infrared and green reflectance to epiphylls on leaves. Time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data corroborated the modeling results, suggesting a degree of coupling between epiphyll cover and vegetation indices which must be accounted for when using optical remote sensing in humid forests. In Chapter 4, 11 years (2000--2010) of MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data covering the entire Amazon basin were used to ascertain the role of heat stress during droughts in 2005 and 2010. Preliminary accuracy assessments showed that LST data provided reasonably accurate estimates of daytime air temperatures (RMSE = 1.45°C; Chapter 3). There were moderate to strong correlations between LST-based air temperature estimates and tower measurements (mean r = 0.64), illustrating a sensitivity to temporal variability. During both droughts, MODIS LST data detected anomalously high daytime and nighttime canopy temperatures throughout drought-affected regions. Multivariate linear models of LST and precipitation anomalies explained 65.1% of the variability in forest biomass losses, as determined from a wide network of forest inventory plots. These results suggest that models should incorporate both heat and moisture to predict drought effects on tropical forests. In Chapter 5, I performed high spatial and temporal resolution modeling of carbon stocks and fluxes in the state of Rondonia, Brazil for the period 1985--2009. Based on this analysis, Rondonia contributed ˜4% of pan-tropical humid forest deforestation emissions while carbon uptake by secondary forest was negligible due to limited spatial extent and high turnover rates. Spatial analysis of land cover change demonstrated the necessity for fine resolution carbon monitoring in tropical regions dominated by non-mechanized, smallholder land uses.

Community-weighted mean of leaf traits and divergence of wood traits predict aboveground biomass in secondary subtropical forests.

PubMed

Ali, Arshad; Yan, En-Rong; Chang, Scott X; Cheng, Jun-Yang; Liu, Xiang-Yu

2017-01-01

Subtropical forests are globally important in providing ecological goods and services, but it is not clear whether functional diversity and composition can predict aboveground biomass in such forests. We hypothesized that high aboveground biomass is associated with high functional divergence (FDvar, i.e., niche complementarity) and community-weighted mean (CWM, i.e., mass ratio; communities dominated by a single plant strategy) of trait values. Structural equation modeling was employed to determine the direct and indirect effects of stand age and the residual effects of CWM and FDvar on aboveground biomass across 31 plots in secondary forests in subtropical China. The CWM model accounted for 78, 20, 6 and 2% of the variation in aboveground biomass, nitrogen concentration in young leaf, plant height and specific leaf area of young leaf, respectively. The FDvar model explained 74, 13, 7 and 0% of the variation in aboveground biomass, plant height, twig wood density and nitrogen concentration in young leaf, respectively. The variation in aboveground biomass, CWM of leaf nitrogen concentration and specific leaf area, and FDvar of plant height, twig wood density and nitrogen concentration in young leaf explained by the joint model was 86, 20, 13, 7, 2 and 0%, respectively. Stand age had a strong positive direct effect but low indirect positive effects on aboveground biomass. Aboveground biomass was negatively related to CWM of nitrogen concentration in young leaf, but positively related to CWM of specific leaf area of young leaf and plant height, and FDvar of plant height, twig wood density and nitrogen concentration in young leaf. Leaf and wood economics spectra are decoupled in regulating the functionality of forests, communities with diverse species but high nitrogen conservative and light acquisitive strategies result in high aboveground biomass, and hence, supporting both the mass ratio and niche complementarity hypotheses in secondary subtropical forests. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydroeconomic DSS for optimal hydrology-oriented forest management in semiarid areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Prats, A.; del Campo, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.

2016-12-01

In semiarid regions like the Mediterranean, managing the upper-catchment forests for water provision goals (hydrology-oriented silviculture) offers a strategy to increase the resilience of catchments to droughts and lower precipitation and higher evapotranspiration due to climate change. Understanding the effects of forest management on vegetation water use and groundwater recharge is particularly important in those regions. Despite the essential role that forests play in the water cycle on the provision of water resources, this contribution is often neither quantified nor explicitly valued. The aim of this work is to develop a novel decision support system (DSS) based on hydro-economic modelling, for assessing and designing the optimal integrated forest and water management for forested catchments. Hydro-economic modelling may support the design of economically efficient strategies integrating the hydrologic, engineering, environmental and economic aspects of water resources systems within a coherent framework. The optimization model explicitly integrates changes in water yield (increase n groundwater recharge) induced by the management of forest density, and the value of the additional water provided to the system. This latter component could serve as an indicator for the design of a "payment for environmental services" scheme in which groundwater beneficiaries could contribute towards funding and promoting efficient forest management operations. Besides, revenues from timber logging are also articulated in the modelling. The case study was an Aleppo pine forest in south-western Valencia province (Spain), using a typical 100-year rotation horizon. The model determines the optimal schedule of thinning interventions in the stands in order to maximize the total net benefits in the system (timber and water). Canopy cover and biomass evolution over time were simulated using growth and yield allometric equations specific for the species in Mediterranean conditions. Silvicultural operation costs were modelled using local cost databases. Groundwater recharge was simulated using HYDRUS, calibrated and validated with data from the experimental plots. This research reveal the potential of integrated water and forest policies and encourage their application by governments and policy makers.

Remote analysis of anthropogenic effect on boreal forests using nonlinear multidimensional models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shchemel, Anton; Ivanova, Yuliya; Larko, Alexander

Nowadays anthropogenic stress of mining and refining oil and gas is becoming significant prob-lem in Eastern Siberia. The task of revealing effect of that industry is not trivial because of complicated access to the sites of mining. Due to that, severe problem of supplying detection of oil and gas complex effect on forest ecosystems arises. That estimation should allow revealing the sites of any negative changes in forest communities in proper time. The intellectual system of analyzing remote sensing data of different resolution and different spectral characteristics with sophisticated nonlinear models is dedicated to solve the problem. The work considers re-mote detection and estimation of forest degradation using analysis of free remote sensing data without total field observations of oil and gas mining territory. To analyze a state of vegetation the following remote sensing data were used as input parameters for our models: albedo, surface temperature and data of about thirty spectral bands in visible and infrared region. The data of MODIS satellite from the year 2000 was used. Chosen data allowed producing complex estima-tion of parameters linked with the quality (set of species, physiological state) and the quantity of vegetation. To verify obtained estimation each index was calculated for a territory in which oil and gas mining is provided along with the same calculations for a sample "clear" territory. Monthly data for vegetation period and annual mean values were analyzed. The work revealed some trends of annual data probably linked with intensification of anthropogenic effect on the ecosystems. The models we managed to build are easy to apply for using by fair personnel of emergency control and oversight institutions. It was found to be helpful to use exactly the full set of values obtained from the satellite for multilateral estimation of anthropogenic effect on forest ecosystems of objects of the oil mining industry for producing generalized estimation indices by the developed models.

An effective assessment protocol for continuous geospatial datasets of forest characteristics using USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data

Treesearch

Rachel Riemann; Barry Tyler Wilson; Andrew Lister; Sarah Parks

2010-01-01

Geospatial datasets of forest characteristics are modeled representations of real populations on the ground. The continuous spatial character of such datasets provides an incredible source of information at the landscape level for ecosystem research, policy analysis, and planning applications, all of which are critical for addressing current challenges related to...

Forest operations, extreme flooding events, and considerations for hydrologic modeling in the Appalachians--A review

Treesearch

M.A. Eisenbies; W.M. Aust; J.A. Burger; M.B. Adams

2007-01-01

The connection between forests and water resources is well established, but the relationships among controlling factors are only partly understood. Concern over the effects of forestry operations, particularly harvesting, on extreme flooding events is a recurrent issue in forest and watershed management. Due to the complexity of the system, and the cost of installing...

Effects of timber management on the hydrology of wetland forests in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; James P. Shepard; Devendra M. Amatya; Hans Riekerk; Nicholas B. Comerford; Wayne Skaggs; Lloyd Swift

2001-01-01

The objectives of this paper are to review the hydrologic impacts of various common forest management practices that include harvesting, site preparation, and drainage. Field hydrological data collected during the past 5±10 years from ten forested wetland sites across the southern US are synthesized using various methods including hydrologic simulation models and...

Potential effects of forest policies on terrestrial biodiversity in a multiownership province.

Treesearch

T.A. Spies; B.C. McComb; R. Kennedy; M.T. McGrath; K. Olsen; R.J. Pabst

2007-01-01

We used spatial simulation models to evaluate how current and two alternative policies might affect potential biodiversity over 100 years in the Coast Ranges Physiographic Province of Oregon. This 2.3-million-ha province is characterized by a diversity of public and private forest owners, and a wide range of forest policy and management objectives. We evaluated habitat...

Carbon sequestration in the U.S. forest sector from 1990 to 2010

Treesearch

Peter B. Woodbury; James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

2007-01-01

Forest inventory data supplemented with data from intensive research sites and models were used to estimate carbon stocks and sequestration rates in U.S. forests, including effects of land use change. Data on the production of wood products and emission from decomposition were used to estimate carbon stocks and sequestration rates in wood products and landfills. From...

External validation of a forest inventory and analysis volume equation and comparisons with estimates from multiple stem-profile models

Treesearch

Christopher M. Oswalt; Adam M. Saunders

2009-01-01

Sound estimation procedures are desideratum for generating credible population estimates to evaluate the status and trends in resource conditions. As such, volume estimation is an integral component of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program's reporting. In effect, reliable volume estimation procedures are...

The challenges in developing the WEPP cumulative effects model

Treesearch

William J. Elliot; Randy B. Foltz

2003-01-01

Many of the forests in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world are source areas for water. The quantity and quality of this water are major public concerns. In a forested watershed, any road segment, harvesting operation, or other management activity can adversely impact forest streams. These disturbances are distributed in both time and space. The disturbance in the first...

Urban forest assessment in northern Delaware

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Robert E. Hoehn; Jun Wang; Andy Lee; Vikram Krishnamurthy; Gary Schwetz

2009-01-01

Presents results of an analysis of the urban forest of the Wilmington, Delaware, the metropolitan corridor in New Castle County (NCC), and Rattlesnake Run sewershed in the city of Wilmington using the Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) model. This analysis reveals that there are about 882,700 trees (19.3 percent tree cover) in the NCC metro corridor and about 136,000 trees (...

Can landscape-level ecological restoration influence fire risk? A spatially-explicit assessment of a northern temperate-southern boreal forest landscape

Treesearch

Douglas J. Shinneman; Brian J. Palik; Meredith W. Cornett

2012-01-01

Management strategies to restore forest landscapes are often designed to concurrently reduce fire risk. However, the compatibility of these two objectives is not always clear, and uncoordinated management among landowners may have unintended consequences. We used a forest landscape simulation model to compare the effects of contemporary management and hypothetical...

Estimating Amazonian rainforest stability and the likelihood for large-scale forest dieback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Jupp, Tim; Ostberg, Sebastian; Heinke, Jens; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

2010-05-01

Annually, tropical forests process approximately 18 Pg of carbon through respiration and photosynthesis - more than twice the rate of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions. Current climate change may be transforming this carbon sink into a carbon source by changing forest structure and dynamics. Increasing temperatures and potentially decreasing precipitation and thus prolonged drought stress may lead to increasing physiological stress and reduced productivity for trees. Resulting decreases in evapotranspiration and therefore convective precipitation could further accelerate drought conditions and destabilize the tropical ecosystem as a whole and lead to an 'Amazon forest dieback'. The projected direction and intensity of climate change vary widely within the region and between different scenarios from climate models (GCMs). In the scope of a World Bank-funded study, we assessed the 24 General Circulation Models (GCMs) evaluated in the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) with respect to their capability to reproduce present-day climate in the Amazon basin using a Bayesian approach. With this approach, greater weight is assigned to the models that simulate well the annual cycle of rainfall. We then use the resulting weightings to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes as simulated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJmL) to estimate the risk of potential Amazon rainforest dieback. Our results show contrasting changes in forest biomass throughout five regions of northern South America: If photosynthetic capacity and water use efficiency is enhanced by CO2, biomass increases across all five regions. However, if CO2-fertilisation is assumed to be absent or less important, then substantial dieback occurs in some scenarios and thus, the risk of forest dieback is considerably higher. Particularly affected are regions in the central Amazon basin. The range of potential biomass change arising from the weighting of rainfall patterns is smaller than the uncertainty arising from CO2-fertilisation effects, which highlights the importance of reducing the uncertainties in the direct effects of CO2 on tropical ecosystems. Strong biomass changes also imply changes in forest structure and thus, forest stability. Our results display shifts in forest composition from closed rainforest to more open forest or even shrubland. Our probability-based risk analysis could be used to advise regional forest protection.

The Impact of Forest Thinning on the Reliability of Water Supply in Central Arizona

PubMed Central

Simonit, Silvio; Connors, John P.; Yoo, James; Kinzig, Ann; Perrings, Charles

2015-01-01

Economic growth in Central Arizona, as in other semiarid systems characterized by low and variable rainfall, has historically depended on the effectiveness of strategies to manage water supply risks. Traditionally, the management of supply risks includes three elements: hard infrastructures, landscape management within the watershed, and a supporting set of institutions of which water markets are frequently the most important. In this paper we model the interactions between these elements. A forest restoration initiative in Central Arizona (the Four Forest Restoration Initiative, or 4FRI) will result in thinning of ponderosa pine forests in the upper watershed, with potential implications for both sedimentation rates and water delivery to reservoirs. Specifically, we model the net effect of ponderosa pine forest thinning across the Salt and Verde River watersheds on the reliability and cost of water supply to the Phoenix metropolitan area. We conclude that the sediment impacts of forest thinning (up to 50% of canopy cover) are unlikely to compromise the reliability of the reservoir system while thinning has the potential to increase annual water supply by 8%. This represents an estimated net present value of surface water storage of $104 million, considering both water consumption and hydropower generation. PMID:25835003

Improved simulation of poorly drained forests using Biome-BGC.

PubMed

Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Gower, Stith T; Ahl, Douglas E

2007-05-01

Forested wetlands and peatlands are important in boreal and terrestrial biogeochemical cycling, but most general-purpose forest process models are designed and parameterized for upland systems. We describe changes made to Biome-BGC, an ecophysiological process model, that improve its ability to simulate poorly drained forests. Model changes allowed for: (1) lateral water inflow from a surrounding watershed, and variable surface and subsurface drainage; (2) adverse effects of anoxic soil on decomposition and nutrient mineralization; (3) closure of leaf stomata in flooded soils; and (4) growth of nonvascular plants (i.e., bryophytes). Bryophytes were treated as ectohydric broadleaf evergreen plants with zero stomatal conductance, whose cuticular conductance to CO(2) was dependent on plant water content. Individual model changes were parameterized with published data, and ecosystem-level model performance was assessed by comparing simulated output to field data from the northern BOREAS site in Manitoba, Canada. The simulation of the poorly drained forest model exhibited reduced decomposition and vascular plant growth (-90%) compared with that of the well-drained forest model; the integrated bryophyte photosynthetic response accorded well with published data. Simulated net primary production, biomass and soil carbon accumulation broadly agreed with field measurements, although simulated net primary production was higher than observed data in well-drained stands. Simulated net primary production in the poorly drained forest was most sensitive to oxygen restriction on soil processes, and secondarily to stomatal closure in flooded conditions. The modified Biome-BGC remains unable to simulate true wetlands that are subject to prolonged flooding, because it does not track organic soil formation, water table changes, soil redox potential or anaerobic processes.

An ecohydrological model to quantify the risk of drought-induced forest mortality events across climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolari, A.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2013-12-01

Regional scale drought-induced forest mortality events are projected to become more frequent under future climates due to changes in rainfall patterns. However, the ability to predict the conditions under which such events occur is currently lacking. To quantify and understand the underlying causes of drought-induced forest mortality, we propose a stochastic ecohydrological model that explicitly couples tree water and carbon use strategies with climate characteristics, such as the frequency and severity of drought. Using the model and results from a controlled drought experiment, we identify the soil, vegetation, and climate factors that underlie tree water and carbon deficits and, ultimately, the risk of drought-induced forest mortality. This mortality risk is then compared across the spectrum of anisohydric-isohydric stomatal control strategies and a range of rainfall regimes. These results suggest certain soil-plant combinations may maximize the survivable drought length in a given climate. Finally, we discuss how this approach can be expanded to estimate the effect of anticipated climate change on drought-induced forest mortality and associated consequences for forest water and carbon balances.

Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B.; Fisk, J.; Holm, J. A.; Bailey, V.; Gough, C. M.

2014-07-01

Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. In particular, it is unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging US forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models - Biome-BGC, a classic big-leaf model, and the ED and ZELIG gap-oriented models - could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols, and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ED and ZELIG correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes. Biome-BGC net primary production (NPP) was correctly resilient, but for the wrong reasons, while ED and ZELIG exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. As a result we expect that most ecosystem models, developed to simulate processes following stand-replacing disturbances, will not simulate well the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.

Amazon Forests Maintain Consistent Canopy Structure and Greenness During the Dry Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morton, Douglas C.; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Carabajal, Claudia C.; Rosette, Jacqueline; Palace, Michael; Cook, Bruce D.; Vermote, Eric F.; Harding, David J.; North, Peter R. J.

2014-01-01

The seasonality of sunlight and rainfall regulates net primary production in tropical forests. Previous studies have suggested that light is more limiting than water for tropical forest productivity, consistent with greening of Amazon forests during the dry season in satellite data.We evaluated four potential mechanisms for the seasonal green-up phenomenon, including increases in leaf area or leaf reflectance, using a sophisticated radiative transfer model and independent satellite observations from lidar and optical sensors. Here we show that the apparent green up of Amazon forests in optical remote sensing data resulted from seasonal changes in near-infrared reflectance, an artefact of variations in sun-sensor geometry. Correcting this bidirectional reflectance effect eliminated seasonal changes in surface reflectance, consistent with independent lidar observations and model simulations with unchanging canopy properties. The stability of Amazon forest structure and reflectance over seasonal timescales challenges the paradigm of light-limited net primary production in Amazon forests and enhanced forest growth during drought conditions. Correcting optical remote sensing data for artefacts of sun-sensor geometry is essential to isolate the response of global vegetation to seasonal and interannual climate variability.

Amazon forests maintain consistent canopy structure and greenness during the dry season.

PubMed

Morton, Douglas C; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Carabajal, Claudia C; Rosette, Jacqueline; Palace, Michael; Cook, Bruce D; Vermote, Eric F; Harding, David J; North, Peter R J

2014-02-13

The seasonality of sunlight and rainfall regulates net primary production in tropical forests. Previous studies have suggested that light is more limiting than water for tropical forest productivity, consistent with greening of Amazon forests during the dry season in satellite data. We evaluated four potential mechanisms for the seasonal green-up phenomenon, including increases in leaf area or leaf reflectance, using a sophisticated radiative transfer model and independent satellite observations from lidar and optical sensors. Here we show that the apparent green up of Amazon forests in optical remote sensing data resulted from seasonal changes in near-infrared reflectance, an artefact of variations in sun-sensor geometry. Correcting this bidirectional reflectance effect eliminated seasonal changes in surface reflectance, consistent with independent lidar observations and model simulations with unchanging canopy properties. The stability of Amazon forest structure and reflectance over seasonal timescales challenges the paradigm of light-limited net primary production in Amazon forests and enhanced forest growth during drought conditions. Correcting optical remote sensing data for artefacts of sun-sensor geometry is essential to isolate the response of global vegetation to seasonal and interannual climate variability.

Threshold effect of habitat loss on bat richness in cerrado-forest landscapes.

PubMed

Muylaert, Renata L; Stevens, Richard D; Ribeiro, Milton C

2016-09-01

Understanding how animal groups respond to contemporary habitat loss and fragmentation is essential for development of strategies for species conservation. Until now, there has been no consensus about how landscape degradation affects the diversity and distribution of Neotropical bats. Some studies demonstrate population declines and species loss in impacted areas, although the magnitude and generality of these effects on bat community structure are unclear. Empirical fragmentation thresholds predict an accentuated drop in biodiversity, and species richness in particular, when less than 30% of the original amount of habitat in the landscape remains. In this study, we tested whether bat species richness demonstrates this threshold response, based on 48 sites distributed across 12 landscapes with 9-88% remaining forest in Brazilian cerrado-forest formations. We also examined the degree to which abundance was similarly affected within four different feeding guilds. The threshold value for richness, below which bat diversity declines precipitously, was estimated at 47% of remaining forest. To verify if the response of bat abundance to habitat loss differed among feeding guilds, we used a model selection approach based on Akaike's information criterion. Models accounted for the amount of riparian forest, semideciduous forest, cerrado, tree plantations, secondary forest, and the total amount of forest in the landscape. We demonstrate a nonlinear effect of the contribution of tree plantations to frugivores, and a positive effect of the amount of cerrado to nectarivores and animalivores, the groups that responded most to decreases in amount of forest. We suggest that bat assemblages in interior Atlantic Forest and cerrado regions of southeastern Brazil are impoverished, since we found lower richness and abundance of different groups in landscapes with lower amounts of forest. The relatively higher threshold value of 47% suggests that bat communities have a relatively lower resistance to habitat degradation than other animal groups. Accordingly, conservation and restoration strategies should focus on increasing the amount of native vegetation of landscapes so as to enhance species richness of bats. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Canada lynx Lynx canadensis habitat and forest succession in northern Maine, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoving, C.L.; Harrison, D.J.; Krohn, W.B.; Jakubas, W.J.; McCollough, M.A.

2004-01-01

The contiguous United States population of Canada lynx Lynx canadensis was listed as threatened in 2000. The long-term viability of lynx populations at the southern edge of their geographic range has been hypothesized to be dependent on old growth forests; however, lynx are a specialist predator on snowshoe hare Lepus americanus, a species associated with early-successional forests. To quantify the effects of succession and forest management on landscape-scale (100 km2) patterns of habitat occupancy by lynx, we compared landscape attributes in northern Maine, USA, where lynx had been detected on snow track surveys to landscape attributes where surveys had been conducted, but lynx tracks had not been detected. Models were constructed a priori and compared using logistic regression and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), which quantitatively balances data fit and parsimony. In the models with the lowest (i.e. best) AIC, lynx were more likely to occur in landscapes with much regenerating forest, and less likely to occur in landscapes with much recent clearcut, partial harvest and forested wetland. Lynx were not associated positively or negatively with mature coniferous forest. A probabilistic map of the model indicated a patchy distribution of lynx habitat in northern Maine. According to an additional survey of the study area for lynx tracks during the winter of 2003, the model correctly classified 63.5% of the lynx occurrences and absences. Lynx were more closely associated with young forests than mature forests; however, old-growth forests were functionally absent from the landscape. Lynx habitat could be reduced in northern Maine, given recent trends in forest management practices. Harvest strategies have shifted from clearcutting to partial harvesting. If this trend continues, future landscapes will shift away from extensive regenerating forests and toward landscapes dominated by pole-sized and larger stands. Because Maine presently supports the only verified populations of this federally threatened species in the eastern United States, changes in forest management practices could affect recovery efforts throughout that region.

Simulating effects of fire on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes with the ecological process model FIRE-BGC.

PubMed

Keane, R E; Ryan, K C; Running, S W

1996-03-01

A mechanistic, biogeochemical succession model, FIRE-BGC, was used to investigate the role of fire on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. FIRE-BGC is an individual-tree model-created by merging the gap-phase process-based model FIRESUM with the mechanistic ecosystem biogeochemical model FOREST-BGC-that has mixed spatial and temporal resolution in its simulation architecture. Ecological processes that act at a landscape level, such as fire and seed dispersal, are simulated annually from stand and topographic information. Stand-level processes, such as tree establishment, growth and mortality, organic matter accumulation and decomposition, and undergrowth plant dynamics are simulated both daily and annually. Tree growth is mechanistically modeled based on the ecosystem process approach of FOREST-BGC where carbon is fixed daily by forest canopy photosynthesis at the stand level. Carbon allocated to the tree stem at the end of the year generates the corresponding diameter and height growth. The model also explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. We simulated the effects of fire on ecosystem characteristics of net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, standing crop biomass, nitrogen cycling and leaf area index over 200 years for the 50,000-ha McDonald Drainage in Glacier National Park. Results show increases in net primary productivity and available nitrogen when fires are included in the simulation. Standing crop biomass and evapotranspiration decrease under a fire regime. Shade-intolerant species dominate the landscape when fires are excluded. Model tree increment predictions compared well with field data.

An economic model of international wood supply, forest stock and forest area change

Treesearch

James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

2006-01-01

Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock...

Gap Models as Tools for Sustainable Development under Environmental Changes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Wang, B.; Brazhnik, K.; Armstrong, A. H.; Foster, A.

2017-12-01

Agent-based models of complex systems or as used in this review, Individual-based Models (IBMs), emerged in the 1960s and early 1970s, across diverse disciplines from astronomy to zoology. IBMs arose from a deeply embedded ecological tradition of understanding the dynamics of ecosystems from a "bottom-up" accounting of the interactions of the parts. In this case, individual trees are principal among the parts. Because they are computationally demanding, these models have prospered as the power of digital computers has increased exponentially over the decades following the 1970s. Forest IBMs are no longer computationally bound from developing continental- or global-scale simulations of responses of forests to climate and other changes. Gap models simulate the changes in forests by simulating the birth, growth and death of each individual tree on small plots of land that in summation comprise a forest (or set of sample plots on a forested landscape or region). Currently, gap models have grown from continental-scale and even global-scale applications to assess the potential consequences of climate change on natural forests. These predictions are valuable in the planning and anticipatory decision-making needed to sustainably manage a vast region such as Northern Eurasia. Modifications to the models have enabled simulation of disturbances including fire, insect outbreak and harvest. These disturbances have significant exogenous drivers, notably weather variables, but their effects are also a function of the endogenous conditions involving the structure of forest itself. This feedback between the forest and its environment can in some cases produce hysteresis and multiple-stable operating-regimes for forests. Such responses, often characterized as "tipping points" could play a significant role in increasing risk under environmental change, notably global warming. Such dynamics in a management context imply regional systems that could be "unforgiving" of management mistakes.

Regional atmospheric cooling and wetting effect of permafrost thaw-induced boreal forest loss.

PubMed

Helbig, Manuel; Wischnewski, Karoline; Kljun, Natascha; Chasmer, Laura E; Quinton, William L; Detto, Matteo; Sonnentag, Oliver

2016-12-01

In the sporadic permafrost zone of North America, thaw-induced boreal forest loss is leading to permafrost-free wetland expansion. These land cover changes alter landscape-scale surface properties with potentially large, however, still unknown impacts on regional climates. In this study, we combine nested eddy covariance flux tower measurements with satellite remote sensing to characterize the impacts of boreal forest loss on albedo, eco-physiological and aerodynamic surface properties, and turbulent energy fluxes of a lowland boreal forest region in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Planetary boundary layer modelling is used to estimate the potential forest loss impact on regional air temperature and atmospheric moisture. We show that thaw-induced conversion of forests to wetlands increases albedo: and bulk surface conductance for water vapour and decreases aerodynamic surface temperature. At the same time, heat transfer efficiency is reduced. These shifts in land surface properties increase latent at the expense of sensible heat fluxes, thus, drastically reducing Bowen ratios. Due to the lower albedo of forests and their masking effect of highly reflective snow, available energy is lower in wetlands, especially in late winter. Modelling results demonstrate that a conversion of a present-day boreal forest-wetland to a hypothetical homogeneous wetland landscape could induce a near-surface cooling effect on regional air temperatures of up to 3-4 °C in late winter and 1-2 °C in summer. An atmospheric wetting effect in summer is indicated by a maximum increase in water vapour mixing ratios of 2 mmol mol -1 . At the same time, maximum boundary layer heights are reduced by about a third of the original height. In fall, simulated air temperature and atmospheric moisture between the two scenarios do not differ. Therefore, permafrost thaw-induced boreal forest loss may modify regional precipitation patterns and slow down regional warming trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analyzing the cost effectiveness of Santiago, Chile's policy of using urban forests to improve air quality.

PubMed

Escobedo, Francisco J; Wagner, John E; Nowak, David J; De la Maza, Carmen Luz; Rodriguez, Manuel; Crane, Daniel E

2008-01-01

Santiago, Chile has the distinction of having among the worst urban air pollution problems in Latin America. As part of an atmospheric pollution reduction plan, the Santiago Regional Metropolitan government defined an environmental policy goal of using urban forests to remove particulate matter less than 10 microm (PM(10)) in the Gran Santiago area. We used cost effectiveness, or the process of establishing costs and selecting least cost alternatives for obtaining a defined policy goal of PM(10) removal, to analyze this policy goal. For this study, we quantified PM(10) removal by Santiago's urban forests based on socioeconomic strata and using field and real-time pollution and climate data via a dry deposition urban forest effects model. Municipal urban forest management costs were estimated using management cost surveys and Chilean Ministry of Planning and Cooperation documents. Results indicate that managing municipal urban forests (trees, shrubs, and grass whose management is under the jurisdiction of Santiago's 36 municipalities) to remove PM(10) was a cost-effective policy for abating PM(10) based on criteria set by the World Bank. In addition, we compared the cost effectiveness of managing municipal urban forests and street trees to other control policies (e.g. alternative fuels) to abate PM(10) in Santiago and determined that municipal urban forest management efficiency was similar to these other air quality improvement measures.

Did 250 years of forest management in Europe cool the climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naudts, Kim; Chen, Yiying; McGrath, Matthew; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Otto, Juliane; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

2016-04-01

Over the past two centuries European forest has evolved from being an over-exploited source of timber to a sustainably managed provider of diverse ecosystem services. Although this transition is often perceived as exemplary in resources management, the loss of unmanaged forest, the progressive shift from traditional coppice forestry to the current production-oriented management and the massive conversion of broadleaved to coniferous species are typically overlooked when assessing the impact of land-use change on climate. Here we present a study that addressed this gap by: (1) developing and reparameterizing the ORCHIDEE land surface model to simulate the biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management, (2) reconstructing the land-use history of Europe, accounting for changes in forest management and land cover. The model was coupled to the atmospheric model LMDz in a factorial simulation experiment to attribute climate change to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission and European land-use change since 1750 (i.e., afforestation, wood extraction and species conversion). We find that, despite considerable afforestation, Europe's forests failed to realize a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere due to wood extraction. Moreover, biophysical changes due to the conversion of deciduous forest into coniferous forest have offset mitigation through the carbon cycle. Thus, two and a half centuries of forest management in Europe did not mitigate climate warming (Naudts et al., 2016). Naudts, K., Chen, Y., McGrath, M.J., Ryder, J., Valade, A., Otto, J., Luyssaert, S, Europe's forest management did not mitigate climate warming, Science, Accepted.

Effects of forest cover changes in European Russia on regional weather conditions: results of numerical experiments with the COSMO-CLM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olchev, Alexander; Kuzmina, Ekaterina; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Rivin, Gdaly S.

2017-04-01

The forests have a significant effect on the climatic system. They capture CO2 from the atmosphere, regulate the surface evaporation and runoff, and influence the radiation and thermal conditions of the land surface. It is obvious, that their influence depends on many different factors including regional climate conditions, land use and vegetation structure, surface topography, etc. The main goal of the study is to assess the possible influence of forest cover changes (under deforestation and/or afforestation) on regional weather conditions in the central part of European Russia using the results of modeling experiments provided by the meso-scale COSMO-CLM model. The need of the study lies in a lack of the experimental and modeling data characterizing the influence of the forest and land-use changes on regional weather conditions in European part of Russia. The forest ecosystems in the study region play a very important biosphere role that is significantly increased in the last decades due to considerable strengthening of anthropogenic activity in the area of European Russia. The area selected for the study is located in the central part of European Russia between 55 and 59N and 28 and 37E. It comprises several geographical zones including dark-coniferous forests of the South-European taiga in the north, the mixed forests in the central part and the broad-leaved forests in the south. The forests within the study area are very heterogeneous. The total area covered by forests according to recent remote sensing data is about 50%. The numerical experiments were provided using the COSMO-CLM model with the spatial resolution 13.2 km. As initial and boundary conditions for the numerical experiments the global reanalysis ERA Interim (with the 6-hour resolution in time and 0.75° × 0.75° in space) were used. The weather conditions were simulated in a continuous cycle for several months for the entire area of European Russia using the results of global reanalysis on external boundaries of the modeling domain. For the modeling experiments the warm period (from May to September) of 2010 was selected. The first modeling experiment assumed total deforestation of the study area. The second experiment suggested complete interruption of economic activity in the region, forest regeneration and total area afforestation. It was assumed that the forest cover increase in the considered scenario was only due to increase of the fraction of pioneer small-leaved tree species (e.g. birch, aspen). Any possible changes in proportion of coniferous species were ignored. The results of the modeling experiments showed considerable influence of forest cover changes on regional weather conditions. The influence of forest cover was manifested in changes of spatial patterns of the air temperature at different levels in the atmosphere, in changes of amount and intensity of precipitation, dew point, cloud cover, relative humidity, wind speed, and in changes of a number of other meteorological parameters. It was shown that the total deforestation of the study region can result in increase of the mean air temperature in summer on 0.3°C and in reduction of precipitation by about 6%. The afforestation processes can lead to opposite effects: in case of modeling scenario imitating the total afforestation of the study area the model predicts the decrease of the mean summer temperatures on 0.1°C and increase of precipitation by 4%. The diurnal changes of meteorological parameters can be significantly higher and more heterogeneous. Whereas the changes of the surface air temperature and humidity, wind speed and some other parameters are mainly appeared within the area with changed forest cover only, the changes of precipitation and cloud cover patterns are manifested within the entire European part of Russia including the areas situated outside the study region. The study is involved in the NEESPI program and it was supported by grant of the Russian Science Foundation (14-14- 00956).

Carrot or stick? Modelling how landowner behavioural responses can cause incentive-based forest governance to backfire.

PubMed

Henderson, Kirsten A; Anand, Madhur; Bauch, Chris T

2013-01-01

Mitigating the negative impacts of declining worldwide forest cover remains a significant socio-ecological challenge, due to the dominant role of human decision-making. Here we use a Markov chain model of land-use dynamics to examine the impact of governance on forest cover in a region. Each land parcel can be either forested or barren (deforested), and landowners decide whether to deforest their parcel according to perceived value (utility). We focus on three governance strategies: yearly incentive for conservation, one-time penalty for deforestation and one-time incentive for reforestation. The incentive and penalty are incorporated into the expected utility of forested land, which decreases the net gain of deforestation. By analyzing the equilibrium and stability of the landscape dynamics, we observe four possible outcomes: a stationary-forested landscape, a stationary-deforested landscape, an unstable landscape fluctuating near the equilibrium, and a cyclic-forested landscape induced by synchronized deforestation. We find that the two incentive-based strategies often result in highly fluctuating forest cover over decadal time scales or longer, and in a few cases, reforestation incentives actually decrease the average forest cover. In contrast, a penalty for deforestation results in the stable persistence of forest cover (generally >30%). The idea that larger conservation incentives will always yield higher and more stable forest cover is not supported in our findings. The decision to deforest is influenced by more than a simple, "rational" cost-benefit analysis: social learning and myopic, stochastic decision-making also have important effects. We conclude that design of incentive programs may need to account for potential counter-productive long-term effects due to behavioural feedbacks.

Carrot or Stick? Modelling How Landowner Behavioural Responses Can Cause Incentive-Based Forest Governance to Backfire

PubMed Central

Henderson, Kirsten A.; Anand, Madhur; Bauch, Chris T.

2013-01-01

Mitigating the negative impacts of declining worldwide forest cover remains a significant socio-ecological challenge, due to the dominant role of human decision-making. Here we use a Markov chain model of land-use dynamics to examine the impact of governance on forest cover in a region. Each land parcel can be either forested or barren (deforested), and landowners decide whether to deforest their parcel according to perceived value (utility). We focus on three governance strategies: yearly incentive for conservation, one-time penalty for deforestation and one-time incentive for reforestation. The incentive and penalty are incorporated into the expected utility of forested land, which decreases the net gain of deforestation. By analyzing the equilibrium and stability of the landscape dynamics, we observe four possible outcomes: a stationary-forested landscape, a stationary-deforested landscape, an unstable landscape fluctuating near the equilibrium, and a cyclic-forested landscape induced by synchronized deforestation. We find that the two incentive-based strategies often result in highly fluctuating forest cover over decadal time scales or longer, and in a few cases, reforestation incentives actually decrease the average forest cover. In contrast, a penalty for deforestation results in the stable persistence of forest cover (generally >30%). The idea that larger conservation incentives will always yield higher and more stable forest cover is not supported in our findings. The decision to deforest is influenced by more than a simple, “rational” cost-benefit analysis: social learning and myopic, stochastic decision-making also have important effects. We conclude that design of incentive programs may need to account for potential counter-productive long-term effects due to behavioural feedbacks. PMID:24204942

National-scale aboveground biomass geostatistical mapping with FIA inventory and GLAS data: Preparation for sparsely sampled lidar assisted forest inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babcock, C. R.; Finley, A. O.; Andersen, H. E.; Moskal, L. M.; Morton, D. C.; Cook, B.; Nelson, R.

2017-12-01

Upcoming satellite lidar missions, such as GEDI and IceSat-2, are designed to collect laser altimetry data from space for narrow bands along orbital tracts. As a result lidar metric sets derived from these sources will not be of complete spatial coverage. This lack of complete coverage, or sparsity, means traditional regression approaches that consider lidar metrics as explanatory variables (without error) cannot be used to generate wall-to-wall maps of forest inventory variables. We implement a coregionalization framework to jointly model sparsely sampled lidar information and point-referenced forest variable measurements to create wall-to-wall maps with full probabilistic uncertainty quantification of all inputs. We inform the model with USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) in-situ forest measurements and GLAS lidar data to spatially predict aboveground forest biomass (AGB) across the contiguous US. We cast our model within a Bayesian hierarchical framework to better model complex space-varying correlation structures among the lidar metrics and FIA data, which yields improved prediction and uncertainty assessment. To circumvent computational difficulties that arise when fitting complex geostatistical models to massive datasets, we use a Nearest Neighbor Gaussian process (NNGP) prior. Results indicate that a coregionalization modeling approach to leveraging sampled lidar data to improve AGB estimation is effective. Further, fitting the coregionalization model within a Bayesian mode of inference allows for AGB quantification across scales ranging from individual pixel estimates of AGB density to total AGB for the continental US with uncertainty. The coregionalization framework examined here is directly applicable to future spaceborne lidar acquisitions from GEDI and IceSat-2. Pairing these lidar sources with the extensive FIA forest monitoring plot network using a joint prediction framework, such as the coregionalization model explored here, offers the potential to improve forest AGB accounting certainty and provide maps for post-model fitting analysis of the spatial distribution of AGB.

Simulating the effect of ignition source type on forest fire statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krenn, Roland; Hergarten, Stefan

2010-05-01

Forest fires belong to the most frightening natural hazards, and have long-term ecological and economic effects on the regions involved. It was found that their frequency-area distributions show power-law behaviour under a wide variety of conditions, interpreting them as a self-organised critical phenomenon. Using computer simulations, self-organised critical behaviour manifests in simple cellular automaton models. With respect to ignition source, forest fires can be categorised as lightning-induced or as a result of human activity. Lightning fires are considered to be natural, whereas ``man made'' fires are frequently caused by some sort of technological disaster, such as sparks from wheels of trains, the rupture of overhead electrical lines, the misuse of electrical or mechanical devices and so on. Taking into account that such events rarely occur deep in the woods, man made fires should start preferably on the edge of a forest or where the forest is not very dense. We present a modification in the self-organised critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model that takes these two different triggering mechanisms into account and increases the scaling exponent of the frequency-area distribution by ca. 1/3. Combined simulations further predict a dependence of the overall event-size distribution on the ratio of lightning-induced and man made fires as well as a splitting of their partial distributions. Lightning is identified as the dominant mechanism in the regime of the largest fires. The results are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database and suggest that lightning-induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modelling, hazard assessment and forest management.

Soil carbon stocks across tropical forests of Panama regulated by base cation effects on fine roots

DOE PAGES

Cusack, Daniela F.; Markesteijn, Lars; Condit, Richard; ...

2018-01-02

We report that tropical forests are the most carbon (C)- rich ecosystems on Earth, containing 25–40% of global terrestrial C stocks. While large-scale quantifi- cation of aboveground biomass in tropical forests has improved recently, soil C dynamics remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in Earth system models, which inhibits our ability to predict future climate. Globally, soil texture and climate predict B 30% of the variation in soil C stocks, so ecosystem models often predict soil C using measures of aboveground plant growth. However, this approach can underestimate tropical soil C stocks, and has proven inaccurate when comparedmore » with data for soil C in data-rich northern ecosystems. By quantifying soil organic C stocks to 1 m depth for 48 humid tropical forest plots across gradients of rainfall and soil fertility in Panama, we show that soil C does not correlate with common predictors used in models, such as plant biomass or litter production. Instead, a structural equation model including base cations, soil clay content, and rainfall as exogenous factors and root biomass as an endogenous factor predicted nearly 50% of the variation in tropical soil C stocks, indicating a strong indirect effect of base cation availability on tropical soil C storage. Including soil base cations in C cycle models, and thus emphasizing mechanistic links among nutrients, root biomass, and soil C stocks, will improve prediction of climate-soil feedbacks in tropical forests.« less

Soil carbon stocks across tropical forests of Panama regulated by base cation effects on fine roots

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cusack, Daniela F.; Markesteijn, Lars; Condit, Richard

We report that tropical forests are the most carbon (C)- rich ecosystems on Earth, containing 25–40% of global terrestrial C stocks. While large-scale quantifi- cation of aboveground biomass in tropical forests has improved recently, soil C dynamics remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in Earth system models, which inhibits our ability to predict future climate. Globally, soil texture and climate predict B 30% of the variation in soil C stocks, so ecosystem models often predict soil C using measures of aboveground plant growth. However, this approach can underestimate tropical soil C stocks, and has proven inaccurate when comparedmore » with data for soil C in data-rich northern ecosystems. By quantifying soil organic C stocks to 1 m depth for 48 humid tropical forest plots across gradients of rainfall and soil fertility in Panama, we show that soil C does not correlate with common predictors used in models, such as plant biomass or litter production. Instead, a structural equation model including base cations, soil clay content, and rainfall as exogenous factors and root biomass as an endogenous factor predicted nearly 50% of the variation in tropical soil C stocks, indicating a strong indirect effect of base cation availability on tropical soil C storage. Including soil base cations in C cycle models, and thus emphasizing mechanistic links among nutrients, root biomass, and soil C stocks, will improve prediction of climate-soil feedbacks in tropical forests.« less

Simulated Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance of Western US Forests Under Contemporary Climate and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Law, B. E.; Jones, M. O.

2015-12-01

Previous projections of the contemporary forest carbon balance in the western US showed uncertainties associated with impacts of climate extremes and a coarse spatio-temporal resolution implemented over heterogeneous mountain regions. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5 to produce 4km resolution forest carbon changes with drought, fire and management in the western US. We parameterized the model with species data using local plant trait observations for 30 species. To quantify uncertainty, we evaluated the model with data from flux sites, inventories and ancillary data in the region. Simulated GPP was lower than the measurements at our AmeriFlux sites by 17-22%. Simulated burned area was generally higher than Landsat observations, suggesting the model overestimates fire emissions with the new fire model. Landsat MTBS data show high severity fire represents only a small portion of the total burnt area (12-14%), and no increasing trend from 1984 to 2011. Moderate severity fire increased ~0.23%/year due to fires in the Sierra Nevada (Law & Waring 2014). Oregon, California, and Washington were a net carbon sink, and net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) declined in California over the past 15 years, partly due to drought impacts. Fire emissions were a small portion of the regional carbon budget compared with the effect of harvest removals. Fossil fuel emissions in CA are more than 3x that of OR and WA combined, but are lower per capita. We also identified forest regions that are most vulnerable to climate-driven transformations and to evaluate the effects of management strategies on forest NECB. Differences in forest NECB among states are strongly influenced by the extent of drought (drier longer in the SW) and management intensity (higher in the PNW).

Roads in landscape modeling: a case study of a road data layer and use in the interior northwest landscape analysis system.

Treesearch

Marti Aitken; Jane L. Hayes

2006-01-01

Roads are important ecological features of forest landscapes, but their cause-and effect relationships with other ecosystem components are only recently becoming included in integrated landscape analyses. Simulation models can help us to understand how forested landscapes respond over time to disturbance and socioeconomic factors, and potentially to address the...

Nonnative plant response to silvicultural treatments: A model based on disturbance, propagule pressure, and competitive abilities

Treesearch

Steve Sutherland; Cara R. Nelson

2010-01-01

Invasion by nonnative plants can result in substantial adverse effects on the functions of native forest ecosystems, including nutrient cycling and fire regimes. Thus, forest managers need to be aware of the potential impacts of management activities, including silvicultural treatments, on nonnative vegetation. To aid in that effort, we created a conceptual model of...

Modeling forest ecosystem changes resulting from surface coal mining in West Virginia

Treesearch

John Brown; Andrew J. Lister; Mary Ann Fajvan; Bonnie Ruefenacht; Christine Mazzarella

2012-01-01

The objective of this project is to assess the effects of surface coal mining on forest ecosystem disturbance and restoration in the Coal River Subbasin in southern West Virginia. Our approach is to develop disturbance impact models for this subbasin that will serve as a case study for testing the feasibility of integrating currently available GIS data layers, remote...

Global topics and novel approaches in the study of air pollution, climate change and forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Sicard, Pierre; Augustaitis, Algirdas; Belyazid, Salim; Calfapietra, Carlo; de Marco, Alessandra; Fenn, Mark; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Grulke, Nancy; He, Shang; Matyssek, Rainer; Serengil, Yusuf; Wieser, Gerhard; Paoletti, Elena

2016-06-01

Research directions from the 27th conference for Specialists in Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Forest Ecosystems (2015) reflect knowledge advancements about (i) Mechanistic bases of tree responses to multiple climate and pollution stressors, in particular the interaction of ozone (O3) with nitrogen (N) deposition and drought; (ii) Linking genetic control with physiological whole-tree activity; (iii) Epigenetic responses to climate change and air pollution; (iv) Embedding individual tree performance into the multi-factorial stand-level interaction network; (v) Interactions of biogenic and anthropogenic volatile compounds (molecular, functional and ecological bases); (vi) Estimating the potential for carbon/pollution mitigation and cost effectiveness of urban and peri-urban forests; (vii) Selection of trees adapted to the urban environment; (viii) Trophic, competitive and host/parasite relationships under changing pollution and climate; (ix) Atmosphere-biosphere-pedosphere interactions as affected by anthropospheric changes; (x) Statistical analyses for epidemiological investigations; (xi) Use of monitoring for the validation of models; (xii) Holistic view for linking the climate, carbon, N and O3 modelling; (xiii) Inclusion of multiple environmental stresses (biotic and abiotic) in critical load determinations; (xiv) Ecological impacts of N deposition in the under-investigated areas; (xv) Empirical models for mechanistic effects at the local scale; (xvi) Broad-scale N and sulphur deposition input and their effects on forest ecosystem services; (xvii) Measurements of dry deposition of N; (xviii) Assessment of evapotranspiration; (xix) Remote sensing assessment of hydrological parameters; and (xx) Forest management for maximizing water provision and overall forest ecosystem services. Ground-level O3 is still the phytotoxic air pollutant of major concern to forest health. Specific issues about O3 are: (xxi) Developing dose-response relationships and stomatal O3 flux parameterizations for risk assessment, especially, in under-investigated regions; (xxii) Defining biologically based O3 standards for protection thresholds and critical levels; (xxiii) Use of free-air exposure facilities; (xxiv) Assessing O3 impacts on forest ecosystem services. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of climate and forest structure on palms, bromeliads and bamboos in Atlantic Forest fragments of Northeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Hilário, R R; Toledo, J J

2016-01-01

Palms, bromeliads and bamboos are key elements of tropical forests and understanding the effects of climate, anthropogenic pressure and forest structure on these groups is crucial to forecast structural changes in tropical forests. Therefore, we investigated the effects of these factors on the abundance of these groups in 22 Atlantic forest fragments of Northeastern Brazil. Abundance of bromeliads and bamboos were assessed through indexes. Palms were counted within a radius of 20 m. We also obtained measures of vegetation structure, fragment size, annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and human population density. We tested the effects of these predictors on plant groups using path analysis. Palm abundance was higher in taller forests with larger trees, closed canopy and sparse understory, which may be a result of the presence of seed dispersers and specific attributes of local palm species. Bromeliads were negatively affected by both annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality, what may reflect adaptations of these plants to use water efficiently, but also the need to capture water in a regular basis. Bamboos were not related to any predictor variable. As climate and forest structure affected the abundance of bromeliads and palms, human-induced climatic changes and disturbances in forest structure may modify the abundance of these groups. In addition, soil properties and direct measurements of human disturbance should be used in future studies in order to improve the predictability of models about plant groups in Northeastern Atlantic Forest.

[Impacts of forest and precipitation on runoff and sediment in Tianshui watershed and GM models].

PubMed

Ouyang, H

2000-12-01

This paper analyzed the impacts of foret stand volume and precipitation on annual erosion modulus, mean sediment, maximum sediment, mean runoff, maximum runoff, minimum runoff, mean water level, maximum water level and minimum water level in Tianshui watershed, and also analyzed the effect of the variation of forest stand volume on monthly mean runoff, minimum runoff and mean water level. The dynamic models of grey system GM(1, N) were constructed to simulate the changes of these hydrological elements. The dynamic GM models on the impact of stand volumes of different forest types(Chinese fir, masson pine and broad-leaved forests) with different age classes(young, middle-aged, mature and over-mature) and that of precipitation on the hydrological elements were also constructed, and their changes with time were analyzed.

Temporal dynamics of phosphorus during aquatic and terrestrial litter decomposition in an alpine forest.

PubMed

Peng, Yan; Yang, Wanqin; Yue, Kai; Tan, Bo; Huang, Chunping; Xu, Zhenfeng; Ni, Xiangyin; Zhang, Li; Wu, Fuzhong

2018-06-17

Plant litter decomposition in forested soil and watershed is an important source of phosphorus (P) for plants in forest ecosystems. Understanding P dynamics during litter decomposition in forested aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems will be of great importance for better understanding nutrient cycling across forest landscape. However, despite massive studies addressing litter decomposition have been carried out, generalizations across aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems regarding the temporal dynamics of P loss during litter decomposition remain elusive. We conducted a two-year field experiment using litterbag method in both aquatic (streams and riparian zones) and terrestrial (forest floors) ecosystems in an alpine forest on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. By using multigroup comparisons of structural equation modeling (SEM) method with different litter mass-loss intervals, we explicitly assessed the direct and indirect effects of several biotic and abiotic drivers on P loss across different decomposition stages. The results suggested that (1) P concentration in decomposing litter showed similar patterns of early increase and later decrease across different species and ecosystems types; (2) P loss shared a common hierarchy of drivers across different ecosystems types, with litter chemical dynamics mainly having direct effects but environment and initial litter quality having both direct and indirect effects; (3) when assessing at the temporal scale, the effects of initial litter quality appeared to increase in late decomposition stages, while litter chemical dynamics showed consistent significant effects almost in all decomposition stages across aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems; (4) microbial diversity showed significant effects on P loss, but its effects were lower compared with other drivers. Our results highlight the importance of including spatiotemporal variations and indicate the possibility of integrating aquatic and terrestrial decomposition into a common framework for future construction of models that account for the temporal dynamics of P in decomposing litter. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Upscaling of Solar Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence from Leaf to Canopy Using the Dart Model and a Realistic 3d Forest Scene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Atherton, J.; Mõttus, M.; MacArthur, A.; Teemu, H.; Maseyk, K.; Robinson, I.; Honkavaara, E.; Porcar-Castell, A.

2017-10-01

Solar induced chlorophyll a fluorescence (SIF) has been shown to be an excellent proxy of photosynthesis at multiple scales. However, the mechanical linkages between fluorescence and photosynthesis at the leaf level cannot be directly applied at canopy or field scales, as the larger scale SIF emission depends on canopy structure. This is especially true for the forest canopies characterized by high horizontal and vertical heterogeneity. While most of the current studies on SIF radiative transfer in plant canopies are based on the assumption of a homogeneous canopy, recently codes have been developed capable of simulation of fluorescence signal in explicit 3-D forest canopies. Here we present a canopy SIF upscaling method consisting of the integration of the 3-D radiative transfer model DART and a 3-D object model BLENDER. Our aim was to better understand the effect of boreal forest canopy structure on SIF for a spatially explicit forest canopy.

Simulations of Forest Fires by the Cellular Automata Model "ABBAMPAU"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Gregorio, S.; Bendicenti, E.

2003-04-01

Forest fires represent a serious environmental problem, whose negative impact is becoming day by day more worrisome. Forest fires are very complex phenomena; that need an interdisciplinary approach. The adopted method to modelling involves the definition of local rules, from which the global behaviour of the system can emerge. The paradigm of Cellular Automata was applied and the model ABBAMPAU was projected to simulate the evolution of forest fires. Cellular Automata features (parallelism and a-centrism) seem to match the system "forest fire"; the parameters, describing globally a forest fire, i.e. propagation rate, flame length and direction, fireline intensity, fire duration time et c. are mainly depending on some local characteristics i.e. vegetation type (live and dead fuel), relative humidity, fuel moisture, heat, territory morphology (altitude, slope), et c.. The only global characteristic is given by wind velocity and direction, but wind velocity and direction is locally altered according to the morphology; therefore wind has also to be considered at local level. ABBAMPAU accounts for the following aspects of the phenomenon: effects of combustion in surface and crown fire inside the cell, crown fire triggering off; surface and crown fire spread, determination of the local wind rate and direction. A validation of ABBAMPAU was tested on a real case of forest fire, in the territory of Villaputzu, Sardinia island, August 22nd, 1998. First simulations account for the main characteristics of the phenomenon and agree with the observations. The results show that the model could be applied for the forest fire preventions, the productions of risk scenarios and the evaluation of the forest fire environmental impact.

Forest dynamics in Oregon landscapes: Evaluation and application of an individual-based model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; McKane, R.B.; Burdick, C.A.

2007-01-01

The FORCLIM model of forest dynamics was tested against field survey data for its ability to simulate basal area and composition of old forests across broad climatic gradients in western Oregon, USA. The model was also tested for its ability to capture successional trends in ecoregions of the west Cascade Range. It was then applied to simulate present and future (1990-2050) forest landscape dynamics of a watershed in the west Cascades. Various regimes of climate change and harvesting in the watershed were considered in the landscape application. The model was able to capture much of the variation in forest basal area and composition in western Oregon even though temperature and precipitation were the only inputs that were varied among simulated sites. The measured decline in total basal area from tall coastal forests eastward to interior steppe was matched by simulations. Changes in simulated forest dominants also approximated those in the actual data. Simulated abundances of a few minor species did not match actual abundances, however. Subsequent projections of climate change and harvest effects in a west Cascades landscape indicated no change in forest dominance as of 2050. Yet, climate-driven shifts in the distributions of some species were projected. The simulation of both stand-replacing and partial-stand disturbances across western Oregon improved agreement between simulated and actual data. Simulations with fire as an agent of partial disturbance suggested that frequent fires of low severity can alter forest composition and structure as much or more than severe fires at historic frequencies. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Potential Effects of Drought on Tree Dieback in Great Britain and Implications for Forest Management in Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jianjun; Berry, Pam

2017-04-01

The drought and heat stress has alerted the composition, structure and biogeography of forests globally, whilst the projected severe and widespread droughts are potentially increasing. This challenges the sustainable forest management to better cope with future climate and maintain the forest ecosystem functions and services. Many studies have investigated the climate change impacts on forest ecosystem but less considered the climate extremes like drought. In this study, we implement a dynamic ecosystem model based on a version of LPJ-GUESS parameterized with European tree species and apply to Great Britain at a finer spatial resolution of 5*5 km. The model runs for the baseline from 1961 to 2011 and projects to the latter 21st century using 100 climate scenarios generated from MaRIUS project to tackle the climate model uncertainty. We will show the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem and vegetation transition in Great Britain by comparing the modelled conditions in the 2030s and the 2080s relative to the baseline. In particular, by analyzing the modelled tree mortality, we will show the tree dieback patterns in response to drought for various species, and assess their drought vulnerability across Great Britain. We also use species distribution modelling to project the suitable climate space for selected tree species using the same climate scenarios. Aided by these two modelling approaches and based on the corresponding modelling results, we will discuss the implications for adaptation strategy for forest management, especially in extreme drought conditions. The gained knowledge and lessons for Great Britain are considered to be transferable in many other regions.

Simulating carbon stocks and fluxes of an African tropical montane forest with an individual-based forest model.

PubMed

Fischer, Rico; Ensslin, Andreas; Rutten, Gemma; Fischer, Markus; Schellenberger Costa, David; Kleyer, Michael; Hemp, Andreas; Paulick, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas

2015-01-01

Tropical forests are carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystems. Consequently, they play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the present study we used an individual-based forest model (FORMIND) to analyze the carbon balances of a tropical forest. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Model parameters were calibrated using forest inventory data from a tropical forest at Mt. Kilimanjaro. The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces important characteristics of tropical forests (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and leaf area index). The estimated aboveground biomass (385 t/ha) is comparable to biomass values in the Amazon and other tropical forests in Africa. The simulated forest reveals a gross primary production of 24 tcha(-1) yr(-1). Modeling above- and belowground carbon stocks, we analyzed the carbon balance of the investigated tropical forest. The simulated carbon balance of this old-growth forest is zero on average. This study provides an example of how forest models can be used in combination with forest inventory data to investigate forest structure and local carbon balances.

Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate.

PubMed

Spracklen, Dominick V; Bonn, Boris; Carslaw, Kenneth S

2008-12-28

Previous studies have concluded that boreal forests warm the climate because the cooling from storage of carbon in vegetation and soils is cancelled out by the warming due to the absorption of the Sun's heat by the dark forest canopy. However, these studies ignored the impacts of forests on atmospheric aerosol. We use a global atmospheric model to show that, through emission of organic vapours and the resulting condensational growth of newly formed particles, boreal forests double regional cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (from approx. 100 to approx. 200 cm(-3)). Using a simple radiative model, we estimate that the resulting change in cloud albedo causes a radiative forcing of between -1.8 and -6.7 W m(-2) of forest. This forcing may be sufficiently large to result in boreal forests having an overall cooling impact on climate. We propose that the combination of climate forcings related to boreal forests may result in an important global homeostasis. In cold climatic conditions, the snow-vegetation albedo effect dominates and boreal forests warm the climate, whereas in warmer climates they may emit sufficiently large amounts of organic vapour modifying cloud albedo and acting to cool climate.

Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

2013-01-01

Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

Satellite detection of land-use change and effects on regional forest aboveground biomass estimates

Treesearch

Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

2008-01-01

We used remote-sensing-driven models to detect land-cover change effects on forest aboveground biomass (AGB) density (Mg·ha−1, dry weight) and total AGB (Tg) in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan USA, between the years 1992-2001, and conducted an evaluation of the approach. Inputs included remotely-sensed 1992 reflectance data...

Evaluating long-term cumulative hydrologic effects of forest management: a conceptual approach

Treesearch

Robert R. Ziemer

1992-01-01

It is impractical to address experimentally many aspects of cumulative hydrologic effects, since to do so would require studying large watersheds for a century or more. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using three hypothetical 10,000-ha fifth-order forested watersheds. Most of the physical processes expressed by the model are transferable from temperate to...

Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest.

PubMed

Schertzer, E; Staver, A C; Levin, S A

2015-01-01

The role of fire in expanding the global distribution of savanna is well recognized. Empirical observations and modeling suggest that fire spread has a threshold response to fuel-layer continuity, which sets up a positive feedback that maintains savanna-forest bistability. However, modeling has so far failed to examine fire spread as a spatial process that interacts with vegetation. Here, we use simple, well-supported assumptions about fire spread as an infection process and its effects on trees to ask whether spatial dynamics qualitatively change the potential for savanna-forest bistability. We show that the spatial effects of fire spread are the fundamental reason that bistability is possible: because fire spread is an infection process, it exhibits a threshold response to fuel continuity followed by a rapid increase in fire size. Other ecological processes affecting fire spread may also contribute including temporal variability in demography or fire spread. Finally, including the potential for spatial aggregation increases the potential both for savanna-forest bistability and for savanna and forest to coexist in a landscape mosaic.

Characteristics of Forests in Western Sayani Mountains, Siberia from SAR Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranson, K. Jon; Sun, Guoqing; Kharuk, V. I.; Kovacs, Katalin

1998-01-01

This paper investigated the possibility of using spaceborne radar data to map forest types and logging in the mountainous Western Sayani area in Siberia. L and C band HH, HV, and VV polarized images from the Shuttle Imaging Radar-C instrument were used in the study. Techniques to reduce topographic effects in the radar images were investigated. These included radiometric correction using illumination angle inferred from a digital elevation model, and reducing apparent effects of topography through band ratios. Forest classification was performed after terrain correction utilizing typical supervised techniques and principal component analyses. An ancillary data set of local elevations was also used to improve the forest classification. Map accuracy for each technique was estimated for training sites based on Russian forestry maps, satellite imagery and field measurements. The results indicate that it is necessary to correct for topography when attempting to classify forests in mountainous terrain. Radiometric correction based on a DEM (Digital Elevation Model) improved classification results but required reducing the SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) resolution to match the DEM. Using ratios of SAR channels that include cross-polarization improved classification and

Overview of Contemporary Issues of Forest Research and Management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hong S.; Shifley, Stephen R.; Thompson, Frank R.

2011-12-01

With 207 million ha of forest covering 22% of its land area, China ranks fifth in the world in forest area. Rapid economic growth, climate change, and forest disturbances pose new, complex challenges for forest research and management. Progress in meeting these challenges is relevant beyond China, because China's forests represent 34% of Asia's forests and 5% of the worlds' forests. To provide a broader understanding of these management challenges and of research and policies that address them, we organized this special issue on contemporary forest research and management issues in China. At the national level, papers review major forest types and the evolution of sustainable forestry, the development of China's forest-certification efforts, the establishment of a forest inventory system, and achievements and challenges in insect pest control in China. Papers focused on Northern China address historical, social, and political factors that have shaped the region's forests; the use of forest landscape models to assess how forest management can achieve multiple objectives; and analysis and modeling of fuels and fire behavior. Papers addressing Central and South China describe the "Grain for Green" program, which converts low productivity cropland to grassland and woodland to address erosion and soil carbon sequestration; the potential effects of climate change on CO2 efflux and soil respiration; and relationships between climate and net primary productivity. China shares many forest management and research issues with other countries, but in other cases China's capacity to respond to forest management challenges is unique and bears watching by the rest of the world.

Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

PubMed

Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

2010-08-01

*Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems.

An isoline separating relatively warm from relatively cool wintertime forest surface temperatures for the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickham, J.; Wade, T. G.; Riitters, K. H.

2014-09-01

Forest-oriented climate mitigation policies promote forestation as a means to increase uptake of atmospheric carbon to counteract global warming. Some have pointed out that a carbon-centric forest policy may be overstated because it discounts biophysical aspects of the influence of forests on climate. In extra-tropical regions, many climate models have shown that forests tend to be warmer than grasslands and croplands because forest albedos tend to be lower than non-forest albedos. A lower forest albedo results in higher absorption of solar radiation and increased sensible warming that is not offset by the cooling effects of carbon uptake in extra-tropical regions. However, comparison of forest warming potential in the context of climate models is based on a coarse classification system of tropical, temperate, and boreal. There is considerable variation in climate within the broad latitudinal zonation of tropical, temperate, and boreal, and the relationship between biophysical (albedo) and biogeochemical (carbon uptake) mechanisms may not be constant within these broad zones. We compared wintertime forest and non-forest surface temperatures for the southeastern United States and found that forest surface temperatures shifted from being warmer than non-forest surface temperatures north of approximately 36°N to cooler south of 36°N. Our results suggest that the biophysical aspects of forests' influence on climate reinforce the biogeochemical aspects of forests' influence on climate south of 36°N. South of 36°N, both biophysical and biogeochemical properties of forests appear to support forestation as a climate mitigation policy. We also provide some quantitative evidence that evergreen forests tend to have cooler wintertime surface temperatures than deciduous forests that may be attributable to greater evapotranspiration rates.

Changing Amazon biomass and the role of atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate, and land use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Galbraith, David; Zhang, Ke; Coe, Michael T.; Costa, Marcos H.; Moorcroft, Paul

2016-01-01

The Amazon tropical evergreen forest is an important component of the global carbon budget. Its forest floristic composition, structure, and function are sensitive to changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and land use. In this study biomass and productivity simulated by three dynamic global vegetation models (Integrated Biosphere Simulator, Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model, and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) for the period 1970-2008 are compared with observations from forest plots (Rede Amazónica de Inventarios Forestales). The spatial variability in biomass and productivity simulated by the DGVMs is low in comparison to the field observations in part because of poor representation of the heterogeneity of vegetation traits within the models. We find that over the last four decades the CO2 fertilization effect dominates a long-term increase in simulated biomass in undisturbed Amazonian forests, while land use change in the south and southeastern Amazonia dominates a reduction in Amazon aboveground biomass, of similar magnitude to the CO2 biomass gain. Climate extremes exert a strong effect on the observed biomass on short time scales, but the models are incapable of reproducing the observed impacts of extreme drought on forest biomass. We find that future improvements in the accuracy of DGVM predictions will require improved representation of four key elements: (1) spatially variable plant traits, (2) soil and nutrients mediated processes, (3) extreme event mortality, and (4) sensitivity to climatic variability. Finally, continued long-term observations and ecosystem-scale experiments (e.g. Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiments) are essential for a better understanding of the changing dynamics of tropical forests.

Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon.

PubMed

Sellers, Samuel

2017-06-01

Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting.

Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon

PubMed Central

Sellers, Samuel

2017-01-01

Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting. PMID:29056808

The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native hawaiian birds: A modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, M.D.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Decastro, F.; Ahumada, J.A.; Lapointe, D.A.; Atkinson, C.T.; Woodworth, B.L.; Hart, P.J.; Duffy, D.C.

2011-01-01

We developed an epidemiological model of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) across an altitudinal gradient on the island of Hawaii that includes the dynamics of the host, vector, and parasite. This introduced mosquito-borne disease is hypothesized to have contributed to extinctions and major shifts in the altitudinal distribution of highly susceptible native forest birds. Our goal was to better understand how biotic and abiotic factors influence the intensity of malaria transmission and impact on susceptible populations of native Hawaiian forest birds. Our model illustrates key patterns in the malaria-forest bird system: high malaria transmission in low-elevation forests with minor seasonal or annual variation in infection;episodic transmission in mid-elevation forests with site-to-site, seasonal, and annual variation depending on mosquito dynamics;and disease refugia in high-elevation forests with only slight risk of infection during summer. These infection patterns are driven by temperature and rainfall effects on parasite incubation period and mosquito dynamics across an elevational gradient and the availability of larval habitat, especially in mid-elevation forests. The results from our model suggest that disease is likely a key factor in causing population decline or restricting the distribution of many susceptible Hawaiian species and preventing the recovery of other vulnerable species. The model also provides a framework for the evaluation of factors influencing disease transmission and alternative disease control programs, and to evaluate the impact of climate change on disease cycles and bird populations. ??2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests can double biodiversity loss from deforestation.

PubMed

Barlow, Jos; Lennox, Gareth D; Ferreira, Joice; Berenguer, Erika; Lees, Alexander C; Mac Nally, Ralph; Thomson, James R; Ferraz, Silvio Frosini de Barros; Louzada, Julio; Oliveira, Victor Hugo Fonseca; Parry, Luke; Solar, Ricardo Ribeiro de Castro; Vieira, Ima C G; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Begotti, Rodrigo Anzolin; Braga, Rodrigo F; Cardoso, Thiago Moreira; de Oliveira, Raimundo Cosme; Souza, Carlos M; Moura, Nárgila G; Nunes, Sâmia Serra; Siqueira, João Victor; Pardini, Renata; Silveira, Juliana M; Vaz-de-Mello, Fernando Z; Veiga, Ruan Carlo Stulpen; Venturieri, Adriano; Gardner, Toby A

2016-07-07

Concerted political attention has focused on reducing deforestation, and this remains the cornerstone of most biodiversity conservation strategies. However, maintaining forest cover may not reduce anthropogenic forest disturbances, which are rarely considered in conservation programmes. These disturbances occur both within forests, including selective logging and wildfires, and at the landscape level, through edge, area and isolation effects. Until now, the combined effect of anthropogenic disturbance on the conservation value of remnant primary forests has remained unknown, making it impossible to assess the relative importance of forest disturbance and forest loss. Here we address these knowledge gaps using a large data set of plants, birds and dung beetles (1,538, 460 and 156 species, respectively) sampled in 36 catchments in the Brazilian state of Pará. Catchments retaining more than 69–80% forest cover lost more conservation value from disturbance than from forest loss. For example, a 20% loss of primary forest, the maximum level of deforestation allowed on Amazonian properties under Brazil’s Forest Code, resulted in a 39–54% loss of conservation value: 96–171% more than expected without considering disturbance effects. We extrapolated the disturbance-mediated loss of conservation value throughout Pará, which covers 25% of the Brazilian Amazon. Although disturbed forests retained considerable conservation value compared with deforested areas, the toll of disturbance outside Pará’s strictly protected areas is equivalent to the loss of 92,000–139,000 km2 of primary forest. Even this lowest estimate is greater than the area deforested across the entire Brazilian Amazon between 2006 and 2015 (ref. 10). Species distribution models showed that both landscape and within-forest disturbances contributed to biodiversity loss, with the greatest negative effects on species of high conservation and functional value. These results demonstrate an urgent need for policy interventions that go beyond the maintenance of forest cover to safeguard the hyper-diversity of tropical forest ecosystems.

Large forest patches promote breeding success of a terrestrial mammal in urban landscapes.

PubMed

Soga, Masashi; Koike, Shinsuke

2013-01-01

Despite a marked increase in the focus toward biodiversity conservation in fragmented landscapes, studies that confirm species breeding success are scarce and limited. In this paper, we asked whether local (area of forest patches) and landscape (amount of suitable habitat surrounding of focal patches) factors affect the breeding success of raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) in Tokyo, Central Japan. The breeding success of raccoon dogs is easy to judge as adults travel with pups during the breeding season. We selected 21 forest patches (3.3-797.8 ha) as study sites. In each forest patch, we used infra-red-triggered cameras for a total of 60 camera days per site. We inspected each photo to determine whether it was of an adult or a pup. Although we found adult raccoon dogs in all 21 forest patches, pups were found only in 13 patches. To estimate probability of occurrence and detection for raccoon in 21 forest fragments, we used single season site occupancy models in PRESENCE program. Model selection based on AIC and model averaging showed that the occupancy probability of pups was positively affected by patch area. This result suggests that large forests improve breeding success of raccoon dogs. A major reason for the low habitat value of small, isolated patches may be the low availability of food sources and the high risk of being killed on the roads in such areas. Understanding the effects of local and landscape parameters on species breeding success may help us to devise and implement effective long-term conservation and management plans.

12th Central Hardwood Forest Conference

Treesearch

Jeffrey W. Stringer; David L. Loftis; Michael Lacki; Thomas Barnes; Robert A. Muller

1999-01-01

There were 32 oral presentations, 11 abstracts, and 22 poster presentations presented at the 12th Central Hardwood Forest Conference. Presentation topics included wildlife management, nutrient dynamics, stand structure, reforestation/reclamation, timber harvesting, modeling and inventory, silviculture, disturbance effects, and genetics/tree improvement.

Mapping and Analysis of Forest and Land Fire Potential Using Geospatial Technology and Mathematical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suliman, M. D. H.; Mahmud, M.; Reba, M. N. M.; S, L. W.

2014-02-01

Forest and land fire can cause negative implications for forest ecosystems, biodiversity, air quality and soil structure. However, the implications involved can be minimized through effective disaster management system. Effective disaster management mechanisms can be developed through appropriate early warning system as well as an efficient delivery system. This study tried to focus on two aspects, namely by mapping the potential of forest fire and land as well as the delivery of information to users through WebGIS application. Geospatial technology and mathematical modeling used in this study for identifying, classifying and mapping the potential area for burning. Mathematical models used is the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while Geospatial technologies involved include remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and digital field data collection. The entire Selangor state was chosen as our study area based on a number of cases have been reported over the last two decades. AHP modeling to assess the comparison between the three main criteria of fuel, topography and human factors design. Contributions of experts directly involved in forest fire fighting operations and land comprising officials from the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia also evaluated in this model. The study found that about 32.83 square kilometers of the total area of Selangor state are the extreme potential for fire. Extreme potential areas identified are in Bestari Jaya and Kuala Langat High Ulu. Continuity of information and terrestrial forest fire potential was displayed in WebGIS applications on the internet. Display information through WebGIS applications is a better approach to help the decision-making process at a high level of confidence and approximate real conditions. Agencies involved in disaster management such as Jawatankuasa Pengurusan Dan Bantuan Bencana (JPBB) of District, State and the National under the National Security Division and the Fire and Rescue Department Malaysia can use the end result of this study in preparation for the land and forest fires in the future.

Third Forest Vegetation Simulator Conference; 2007 February 13-15; Fort Collins, CO

Treesearch

Robert N. Havis; Nicholas L. Crookston

2008-01-01

The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a suite of computer modeling tools for predicting the long-term effects of alternative forest management actions. FVS was developed in the early 1980s and is used throughout the United Sates and British Columbia. The Third FVS conference, held February 13-15, 2007, in Fort Collins Colorado, contains 20 papers. They describe the...

Estimation of forest structural parameters using 5 and 10 meter SPOT-5 satellite data

Treesearch

Peter T. Wolter; Phillip A. Townsend; Brian R. Sturtevant

2009-01-01

Large areas of forest in the US and Canada are affected by insects and disease each year. Over the past century, outbreaks of the Eastern spruce budworm have become more frequent and severe. The notion of designing a more pest resistant landscape through prescriptive management practices hinges on our ability to effectively model forest?insect dynamics at regional...

Some timber product market and trade implications of an invasive defoliator: the case of Asian lymantria in the United States

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu; Ruhong Li

2008-01-01

US policy and forest product industry decisionmakers need quantitative information about the magnitude of timber product market impacts from the possible introduction of an exotic and potentially dangerous defoliating forest pest. We applied the Global Forest Products Model to evaluate the effects on the United States of an invasion by the Asian gypsy (...

Effects of site preparation on timber and non-timber values of loblolly pine plantations

Treesearch

Jianbang Gan; Stephen H. Kolison; James H. Miller; Tasha M. Hargrove

1998-01-01

This study evaluated the timber and non-timber values of the forest stands generated by four site preparation methods tested in the Tuskegee National Forest 15 yr earlier. The timber values of the forest stands were assessed with the timber yields predicted by the SE TWIGS model. Non-timber benefits were evaluated through the Contingent Valuation Method. Two hundred...

Recreational use management and wildfires in Southern California: Using GIS and visual landscape simulation models for economic assessment

Treesearch

Daniel Moya; Armando González-Cabán; José J. Sánchez; José de la Heras

2013-01-01

Recent advances in fire behavior are conforming strategies for forest management in nonindustrial private and public forests in the western United States. The strategy developed should include identifying the most cost-effective ways for allocating fire management budgets. In recreational areas, visitors’ opinion should be included in forest planning decisions and...

Past and future effects of atmospheric deposition on the forest ecosystem at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest: simulations with the dynamic model ForSAFE

Treesearch

Salim Belyazid; Scott Bailey; Harald Sverdrup

2010-01-01

The Hubbard Brook Ecosystem Study presents a unique opportunity for studying long-term ecosystem responses to changes in anthropogenic factors. Following industrialisation and the intensification of agriculture, the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) has been subject to increased loads of atmospheric deposition, particularly sulfur and nitrogen. The deposition of...

Contribution of climate, soil, and MODIS predictors when modeling forest inventory invasive species distribution using forest inventory data

Treesearch

Dumitru Salajanu; Dennis Jacobs

2010-01-01

Forest inventory and analysis data are used to monitor the presence and extent of certain non-native invasive species. Effective control of its spread requires quality spatial distribution information. There is no clear consensus why some ecosystems are more favorable to non-native species. The objective of this study is to evaluate the reelative contribution of geo-...

Modeling the long-term effects of oak shelterwood regeneration treatments on species diversity and oak abundance in southern Appalachian forests of North Carolina

Treesearch

Tara L. Keyser; Chad E. Keyser

2013-01-01

In April 2008, the Upland Hardwoods Ecology and Management Research Work Unit of the U.S. Forest Service, Southern Research Station began a long-term cooperative study to describe forest ecosystem response to three oak (Quercus spp.) shelterwood regeneration treatments in the central hardwoods region of the United States. Pretreatment inventory data...

Impact of Footprint Diameter and Off-Nadir Pointing on the Precision of Canopy Height Estimates from Spaceborne Lidar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pang, Yong; Lefskky, Michael; Sun, Guoqing; Ranson, Jon

2011-01-01

A spaceborne lidar mission could serve multiple scientific purposes including remote sensing of ecosystem structure, carbon storage, terrestrial topography and ice sheet monitoring. The measurement requirements of these different goals will require compromises in sensor design. Footprint diameters that would be larger than optimal for vegetation studies have been proposed. Some spaceborne lidar mission designs include the possibility that a lidar sensor would share a platform with another sensor, which might require off-nadir pointing at angles of up to 16 . To resolve multiple mission goals and sensor requirements, detailed knowledge of the sensitivity of sensor performance to these aspects of mission design is required. This research used a radiative transfer model to investigate the sensitivity of forest height estimates to footprint diameter, off-nadir pointing and their interaction over a range of forest canopy properties. An individual-based forest model was used to simulate stands of mixed conifer forest in the Tahoe National Forest (Northern California, USA) and stands of deciduous forests in the Bartlett Experimental Forest (New Hampshire, USA). Waveforms were simulated for stands generated by a forest succession model using footprint diameters of 20 m to 70 m. Off-nadir angles of 0 to 16 were considered for a 25 m diameter footprint diameter. Footprint diameters in the range of 25 m to 30 m were optimal for estimates of maximum forest height (R(sup 2) of 0.95 and RMSE of 3 m). As expected, the contribution of vegetation height to the vertical extent of the waveform decreased with larger footprints, while the contribution of terrain slope increased. Precision of estimates decreased with an increasing off-nadir pointing angle, but off-nadir pointing had less impact on height estimates in deciduous forests than in coniferous forests. When pointing off-nadir, the decrease in precision was dependent on local incidence angle (the angle between the off-nadir beam and a line normal to the terrain surface) which is dependent on the off-nadir pointing angle, terrain slope, and the difference between the laser pointing azimuth and terrain aspect; the effect was larger when the sensor was aligned with the terrain azimuth but when aspect and azimuth are opposed, there was virtually no effect on R2 or RMSE. A second effect of off-nadir pointing is that the laser beam will intersect individual crowns and the canopy as a whole from a different angle which had a distinct effect on the precision of lidar estimates of height, decreasing R2 and increasing RMSE, although the effect was most pronounced for coniferous crowns.

Quantifying pollen-vegetation relationships to reconstruct ancient forests using 19th-century forest composition and pollen data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dawson, Andria; Paciorek, Christopher J.; McLachlan, Jason S.; Goring, Simon; Williams, John W.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2016-01-01

Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects relies partly on how effectively land-atmosphere interactions can be quantified. Quantifying composition of past forest ecosystems can help understand processes governing forest dynamics in a changing world. Fossil pollen data provide information about past forest composition, but rigorous interpretation requires development of pollen-vegetation models (PVMs) that account for interspecific differences in pollen production and dispersal. Widespread and intensified land-use over the 19th and 20th centuries may have altered pollen-vegetation relationships. Here we use STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial PVM, to estimate key process parameters and associated uncertainties in the pollen-vegetation relationship. We apply alternate dispersal kernels, and calibrate STEPPS using a newly developed Euro-American settlement-era calibration data set constructed from Public Land Survey data and fossil pollen samples matched to the settlement-era using expert elicitation. Models based on the inverse power-law dispersal kernel outperformed those based on the Gaussian dispersal kernel, indicating that pollen dispersal kernels are fat tailed. Pine and birch have the highest pollen productivities. Pollen productivity and dispersal estimates are generally consistent with previous understanding from modern data sets, although source area estimates are larger. Tests of model predictions demonstrate the ability of STEPPS to predict regional compositional patterns.

Satellite and in situ monitoring data used for modeling of forest vegetation reflectance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoran, M. A.; Savastru, R. S.; Savastru, D. M.; Miclos, S. I.; Tautan, M. N.; Baschir, L.

2010-10-01

As climatic variability and anthropogenic stressors are growing up continuously, must be defined the proper criteria for forest vegetation assessment. In order to characterize current and future state of forest vegetation satellite imagery is a very useful tool. Vegetation can be distinguished using remote sensing data from most other (mainly inorganic) materials by virtue of its notable absorption in the red and blue segments of the visible spectrum, its higher green reflectance and, especially, its very strong reflectance in the near-IR. Vegetation reflectance has variations with sun zenith angle, view zenith angle, and terrain slope angle. To provide corrections of these effects, for visible and near-infrared light, was used a developed a simple physical model of vegetation reflectance, by assuming homogeneous and closed vegetation canopy with randomly oriented leaves. A simple physical model of forest vegetation reflectance was applied and validated for Cernica forested area, near Bucharest town through two ASTER satellite data , acquired within minutes from one another ,a nadir and off-nadir for band 3 lying in the near infra red, most radiance differences between the two scenes can be attributed to the BRDF effect. Other satellite data MODIS, Landsat TM and ETM as well as, IKONOS have been used for different NDVI and classification analysis.

Quantifying pollen-vegetation relationships to reconstruct ancient forests using 19th-century forest composition and pollen data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Andria; Paciorek, Christopher J.; McLachlan, Jason S.; Goring, Simon; Williams, John W.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2016-04-01

Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects relies partly on how effectively land-atmosphere interactions can be quantified. Quantifying composition of past forest ecosystems can help understand processes governing forest dynamics in a changing world. Fossil pollen data provide information about past forest composition, but rigorous interpretation requires development of pollen-vegetation models (PVMs) that account for interspecific differences in pollen production and dispersal. Widespread and intensified land-use over the 19th and 20th centuries may have altered pollen-vegetation relationships. Here we use STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial PVM, to estimate key process parameters and associated uncertainties in the pollen-vegetation relationship. We apply alternate dispersal kernels, and calibrate STEPPS using a newly developed Euro-American settlement-era calibration data set constructed from Public Land Survey data and fossil pollen samples matched to the settlement-era using expert elicitation. Models based on the inverse power-law dispersal kernel outperformed those based on the Gaussian dispersal kernel, indicating that pollen dispersal kernels are fat tailed. Pine and birch have the highest pollen productivities. Pollen productivity and dispersal estimates are generally consistent with previous understanding from modern data sets, although source area estimates are larger. Tests of model predictions demonstrate the ability of STEPPS to predict regional compositional patterns.

Quantifying forest LAI succession in sub-tropical forests using time-series of Landsat data, 1987 -2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.; Song, J.; Wang, J.; Chen, S.; Yu, B.; Liao, L.

2016-12-01

Monitoring the dynamics of leaf area index (LAI) throughout the life-cycle of forests (from seeding to maturity) is vital for simulating forest growth and quantifying carbon sequestration. However, all current global LAI produts show extremely low accuracy in forests and the coarse spatial resolution(nearly 1-km) mismatch with the spatial scale of forest inventory plots (nearly 26m*26m). To date, several studies have explored the possibility of satellite data to classify forest succession or predict stand age. And a few studies have explored the potential of using long term Landsat data to monitor the growing trend of forests, but no studies have quantified the inter-annual and intra-annual LAI dynamics along with forest succession. Vegetation indexes are not perfect variables in quantifying forest foliage dynamics. Hallet (1995) suggested remote sensing of biophysical characteristics should shift away from direct inference from vegetation indices toward more physically based algorithms. This work intends to be a pioneer example for improving the accuracy of forests LAI and providing temporal-spatial matching LAI datasets for monitoring forest processes. We integrates the Geometric-Optical and Radiative Transfer (GORT) model with the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) model to improve the estimation of the forest canopy LAI dynamics. Reflectance time-series data from 1987 to 2015 were collected and preprocessed for forests in southern China, using all available Landsat data (with <80% cloud). Effective LAI and true LAI were field measured to validate our results using various instruments, including digital hemispheric photographs (DHP), LAI-2000 Plant Canopy Analyzer (LI-COR), and Tracing radiation and Architecture of Canopies (TRAC). Results show that the relationship between spectral metrics of satellite images and forest LAI is clear in early stages before maturity. 3-PG provide accurate inter-annual trend of forest LAI, while satellite images provide clear intra-annual LAI dynamics. We concluded that the GORT-3PG model improved the LAI estimation significantly of forest stands. Improving forest LAI estimates will help inform forest management policy and such methods may be applied in other similar forests.

Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Fisk, J.; Holm, J. A.; Bailey, V. L.; Gough, C. M.

2014-12-01

Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. In particular, it is unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging U.S. forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models—Biome-BGC, a classic big-leaf model, and the ED and ZELIG gap-oriented models—could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols, and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ED and ZELIG correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes. Biome-BGC net primary production (NPP) was correctly resilient, but for the wrong reasons, while ED and ZELIG exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. As a result we expect that most ecosystem models, developed to simulate processes following stand-replacing disturbances, will not simulate well the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.

Climate Change Effects of Forest Management and Substitution of Carbon-Intensive Materials and Fossil Fuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathre, R.; Gustavsson, L.; Haus, S.; Lundblad, M.; Lundström, A.; Ortiz, C.; Truong, N.; Wikberg, P. E.

2016-12-01

Forests can play several roles in climate change mitigation strategies, for example as a reservoir for storing carbon and as a source of renewable materials and energy. To better understand the linkages and possible trade-offs between different forest management strategies, we conduct an integrated analysis where both sequestration of carbon in growing forests and the effects of substituting carbon intensive products within society are considered. We estimate the climate effects of directing forest management in Sweden towards increased carbon storage in forests, with more land set-aside for protection, or towards increased forest production for the substitution of carbon-intensive materials and fossil fuels, relative to a reference case of current forest management. We develop various scenarios of forest management and biomass use to estimate the carbon balances of the forest systems, including ecological and technological components, and their impacts on the climate in terms of cumulative radiative forcing over a 100-year period. For the reference case of current forest management, increasing the harvest of forest residues is found to give increased climate benefits. A scenario with increased set-aside area and the current level of forest residue harvest begins with climate benefits compared to the reference scenario, but the benefits cannot be sustained for 100 years because the rate of carbon storage in set-aside forests diminishes over time as the forests mature, but the demand for products and fuels remains. The most climatically beneficial scenario, expressed as reduced cumulative radiative forcing, in both the short and long terms is a strategy aimed at high forest production, high residue recovery rate, and high efficiency utilization of harvested biomass. Active forest management with high harvest level and efficient forest product utilization will provide more climate benefit, compared to reducing harvest and storing more carbon in the forest. Figure. Schematic diagram of complete modelled forest system including ecological and technological components, showing major flows of carbon.

Disentangling the Long-term Effects of Climate Change and Forest Structure and Species Composition on Streamflow Across the Eastern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, P.; Elliott, K.; Hartsell, A.; Miniat, C.

2016-12-01

Climate change and disturbances are threatening the ability of forested watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Forested watersheds in the eastern US have undergone significant change over the 20th century due to natural and introduced disturbances and a legacy of land use. We hypothesize that changes in forest age and species composition (i.e., forest change) associated with these disturbances may have altered forest water use and thus streamflow (Q) due to inherent differences in transpiration among species and forest ages. To test this hypothesis, we quantified changes in Q from 1960 to 2012 in 202 US Geological Survey forested reference watersheds across the eastern US, and separated the effect of changes in climate from forest change using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series modeling. We linked changes in Q to forest disturbance, forest ages and species composition using the Landsat-based North American Forest Dynamics dataset and plot-level USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. We found that 172 of the 202 sites (85%) exhibited changes in Q not accounted for by climate that we attributed to forest change and/or land use change. Among these, 76 (44%) had declining Q due to forest change (mostly in the southeastern US) while 96 (56%) had increasing Q (mostly in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern US). Across the 172 sites with forest-related changes in Q, 34% had at least 10% of the watershed area disturbed at least once from 1986-2010. In a case study of three watersheds, FIA data indicated that changes in forest structure and species composition explained observed changes in Q beyond climate effects. Our results suggest that forest-related changes in Q may have significant implications for water supply in the region and may inform forest management strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on water resources.

Urbanization impacts on mammals across urban-forest edges and a predictive model of edge effects.

PubMed

Villaseñor, Nélida R; Driscoll, Don A; Escobar, Martín A H; Gibbons, Philip; Lindenmayer, David B

2014-01-01

With accelerating rates of urbanization worldwide, a better understanding of ecological processes at the wildland-urban interface is critical to conserve biodiversity. We explored the effects of high and low-density housing developments on forest-dwelling mammals. Based on habitat characteristics, we expected a gradual decline in species abundance across forest-urban edges and an increased decline rate in higher contrast edges. We surveyed arboreal mammals in sites of high and low housing density along 600 m transects that spanned urban areas and areas turn on adjacent native forest. We also surveyed forest controls to test whether edge effects extended beyond our edge transects. We fitted models describing richness, total abundance and individual species abundance. Low-density housing developments provided suitable habitat for most arboreal mammals. In contrast, high-density housing developments had lower species richness, total abundance and individual species abundance, but supported the highest abundances of an urban adapter (Trichosurus vulpecula). We did not find the predicted gradual decline in species abundance. Of four species analysed, three exhibited no response to the proximity of urban boundaries, but spilled over into adjacent urban habitat to differing extents. One species (Petaurus australis) had an extended negative response to urban boundaries, suggesting that urban development has impacts beyond 300 m into adjacent forest. Our empirical work demonstrates that high-density housing developments have negative effects on both community and species level responses, except for one urban adapter. We developed a new predictive model of edge effects based on our results and the literature. To predict animal responses across edges, our framework integrates for first time: (1) habitat quality/preference, (2) species response with the proximity to the adjacent habitat, and (3) spillover extent/sensitivity to adjacent habitat boundaries. This framework will allow scientists, managers and planners better understand and predict both species responses across edges and impacts of development in mosaic landscapes.

Urbanization Impacts on Mammals across Urban-Forest Edges and a Predictive Model of Edge Effects

PubMed Central

Villaseñor, Nélida R.; Driscoll, Don A.; Escobar, Martín A. H.; Gibbons, Philip; Lindenmayer, David B.

2014-01-01

With accelerating rates of urbanization worldwide, a better understanding of ecological processes at the wildland-urban interface is critical to conserve biodiversity. We explored the effects of high and low-density housing developments on forest-dwelling mammals. Based on habitat characteristics, we expected a gradual decline in species abundance across forest-urban edges and an increased decline rate in higher contrast edges. We surveyed arboreal mammals in sites of high and low housing density along 600 m transects that spanned urban areas and areas turn on adjacent native forest. We also surveyed forest controls to test whether edge effects extended beyond our edge transects. We fitted models describing richness, total abundance and individual species abundance. Low-density housing developments provided suitable habitat for most arboreal mammals. In contrast, high-density housing developments had lower species richness, total abundance and individual species abundance, but supported the highest abundances of an urban adapter (Trichosurus vulpecula). We did not find the predicted gradual decline in species abundance. Of four species analysed, three exhibited no response to the proximity of urban boundaries, but spilled over into adjacent urban habitat to differing extents. One species (Petaurus australis) had an extended negative response to urban boundaries, suggesting that urban development has impacts beyond 300 m into adjacent forest. Our empirical work demonstrates that high-density housing developments have negative effects on both community and species level responses, except for one urban adapter. We developed a new predictive model of edge effects based on our results and the literature. To predict animal responses across edges, our framework integrates for first time: (1) habitat quality/preference, (2) species response with the proximity to the adjacent habitat, and (3) spillover extent/sensitivity to adjacent habitat boundaries. This framework will allow scientists, managers and planners better understand and predict both species responses across edges and impacts of development in mosaic landscapes. PMID:24810286

Impacts of global warming on boreal larch forest in East Siberia: simulations with a coupled carbon cycle and fire regime model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, A.

2005-12-01

Boreal forest is one of the focal areas in the study of global warming and carbon cycle. In this study, a coupled carbon cycle and fire regime model was developed and applied to a larch forest in East Siberia, near Yakutsk. Fire regime is simulated with a cellular automaton (20 km x 20 km), in which fire ignition, propagation, and extinction are parameterized in a stochastic manner, including the effects of fuel accumulation and weather condition. For each grid, carbon cycle is simulated with a 10-box scheme, in which net biome production by photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, and biomass burning are calculated explicitly. Model parameters were calibrated with field data of biomass, litter stock, and fire statistics; the carbon cycle scheme was examined with flux measurement data. As a result, the model successfully captured average carbon stocks, productivity, fire frequency, and biomass burning. To assess the effects of global warming, a series of simulations were performed using climatic projections based on the IPCC-SRES emission scenarios from 1990 to 2100. The range of uncertainty among the different climate models and emission scenarios was assessed by using multi-model projection data by CCCma, CCSR/NIES, GFDL, and HCCPR corresponding to the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. The model simulations showed that global warming in the 21st century would considerably enhance the fire regime (e.g., cumulative burnt area increased by 80 to 120 percent), leading to larger carbon emission by biomass burning. The effect was so strong that growth enhancement by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and elongated growing period was cancelled out at landscape scale. In many cases, the larch forest was estimated to act as net carbon sources of 2 to 5 kg C m_|2 by the end of the 21st century, underscoring the importance of forest fire monitoring and management in this region.

Identification of Lightning Gaps in Mangrove Forests Using Airborne LIDAR Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.

2006-12-01

Mangrove forests are highly dynamic ecosystems and change frequently due to tropical storms, frost, and lightning. These factors can cause gaps in mangrove forests by damaging trees. Compared to gaps generated by storms and frost, gaps caused by lightning strikes are small, ranging from 50 to 300 m2. However, these small gaps may play a critical role in mangrove forest dynamics because of the frequent occurrence of lightning in tropical areas. It has been hypothesized that the turnover of mangrove forests is mainly due to the death and regeneration of trees in lightning gaps. However, there is a lack of data for gap occurrence in mangrove forests to verify this hypothesis. It is impractical to measure gaps through a field survey on a large scale because of the logistic difficulties of muddy mangrove forests. Airborne light detection and ranging (LIDAR) technology is an effective alternative because it provides direct measurements of ground and canopy elevations remotely. This study developed a method to identify lightning gaps in mangrove forests in terms of LIDAR measurements. First, LIDAR points are classified into vegetation and ground measurements using the progressive morphological filter. Second, a digital canopy model (DCM) is generated by subtracting a digital terrain model (DTM) from a digital surface model (DSM). The DSM is generated by interpolating raw LIDAR measurements, and DTM is produced by interpolating ground measurements. Third, a black top-hat mathematical morphological transformation is used to identify canopy gaps. Comparison of identified gap polygons with raw LIDAR measurements and field surveys shows that the proposed method identifies lightning gaps in mangrove forests successfully. The area of lightning gaps in mangrove forests in Everglades National Park is about 3% of total forest area, which verifies that lightning gaps play a critical role in mangrove forest turnover.

Timber harvest as the predominant disturbance regime in northeastern U.S. forests: Effects of harvest intensification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Michelle L.; Canham, Charles D.; Murphy, Lora; Donovan, Therese M.

2018-01-01

Harvesting is the leading cause of adult tree mortality in forests of the northeastern United States. While current rates of timber harvest are generally sustainable, there is considerable pressure to increase the contribution of forest biomass to meet renewable energy goals. We estimated current harvest regimes for different forest types and regions across the U.S. states of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine using data from the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis Program. We implemented the harvest regimes in SORTIE‐ND, an individual‐based model of forest dynamics, and simulated the effects of current harvest regimes and five additional harvest scenarios that varied by harvest frequency and intensity over 150 yr. The best statistical model for the harvest regime described the annual probability of harvest as a function of forest type/region, total plot basal area, and distance to the nearest improved road. Forests were predicted to increase in adult aboveground biomass in all harvest scenarios in all forest type and region combinations. The magnitude of the increase, however, varied dramatically—increasing from 3% to 120% above current landscape averages as harvest frequency and intensity decreased. The variation can be largely explained by the disproportionately high harvest rates estimated for Maine as compared with the rest of the region. Despite steady biomass accumulation across the landscape, stands that exhibited old‐growth characteristics (defined as ≥300 metric tons of biomass/hectare) were rare (8% or less of stands). Intensified harvest regimes had little effect on species composition due to widespread partial harvesting in all scenarios, resulting in dominance by late‐successional species over time. Our analyses indicate that forest biomass can represent a sustainable, if small, component of renewable energy portfolios in the region, although there are tradeoffs between carbon sequestration in forest biomass and sustainable feedstock supply. Integrating harvest regimes into a disturbance theory framework is critical to understanding the dynamics of forested landscapes, especially given the predominance of logging as a disturbance agent and the increasing pressure to meet renewable energy needs.

Comparing the Hydrologic and Watershed Processes between a Full Scale Stochastic Model Versus a Scaled Physical Model of Bell Canyon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, K. F.; Shah-Fairbank, S.

2016-12-01

The San Dimas Experimental Forest has been designated as a research area by the United States Forest Service for use as a hydrologic testing facility since 1933 to investigate watershed hydrology of the 27 square mile land. Incorporation of a computer model provides validity to the testing of the physical model. This study focuses on San Dimas Experimental Forest's Bell Canyon, one of the triad of watersheds contained within the Big Dalton watershed of the San Dimas Experimental Forest. A scaled physical model was constructed of Bell Canyon to highlight watershed characteristics and each's effect on runoff. The physical model offers a comprehensive visualization of a natural watershed and can vary the characteristics of rainfall intensity, slope, and roughness through interchangeable parts and adjustments to the system. The scaled physical model is validated and calibrated through a HEC-HMS model to assure similitude of the system. Preliminary results of the physical model suggest that a 50-year storm event can be represented by a peak discharge of 2.2 X 10-3 cfs. When comparing the results to HEC-HMS, this equates to a flow relationship of approximately 1:160,000, which can be used to model other return periods. The completion of the Bell Canyon physical model can be used for educational instruction in the classroom, outreach in the community, and further research using the model as an accurate representation of the watershed present in the San Dimas Experimental Forest.

Effects of white-tailed deer and invasive plants on the herb layer of suburban forests

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract Lack of hunting and predators and proximity to human communities make suburban forests prone to high deer abundance and non-native plant invasions. I investigated these likely drivers of community structure in the herb layers of six suburban forests in one region of New Jersey, USA. In 223 plots I assessed the herb layer response to 2.5 years with or without deer fencing and the early stage of invasion from seed additions of Microstegium vimineum, an invasive, annual grass. Non-native plants and herbaceous native plants were affected very little by fencing or M. vimineum invasion. In contrast, across all forests the combination of deer access and M. vimineum addition had a strongly negative effect on woody native percent cover. Forests differed in overall fencing effects on woody natives; their cover was greater in fenced plots in just three forests, suggesting greater deer pressure in those forests during the experiment. The early invasion by M. vimineum was greatest in two of these same forests, but was not influenced by fencing. Multi-group structural equation modelling compared two groups of forests that differed in vegetation abundance and other characteristics. It paralleled the results above and also showed no negative influence of non-native cover on native cover, even in the forests where non-native cover was greater. It identified a positive effect of light level on herb layer plants in the forests with less vegetation, and also revealed a positive effect of soil water potential (SWP) on non-native plants in the forests with more vegetation, which had higher SWP. These suburban forests within a common region varied widely in native and non-native herb layer abundance, the early success of M. vimineum invasion and the herb layer’s response to early invasion and protection from deer. PMID:29218140

[Simulation study on the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of plantation in southern China: Taking Moshao forest farm in Huitong Ecological Station as an example].

PubMed

Dai, Er Fu; Zhou, Heng; Wu, Zhuo; Wang, Xiao-Fan; Xi, Wei Min; Zhu, Jian Jia

2016-10-01

Global climate warming has significant effect on territorial ecosystem, especially on forest ecosystem. The increase in temperature and radiative forcing will significantly alter the structure and function of forest ecosystem. The southern plantation is an important part of forests in China, its response to climate change is getting more and more intense. In order to explore the responses of southern plantation to climate change under future climate scenarios and to reduce the losses that might be caused by climate change, we used climatic estimated data under three new emission scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6 scenario, RCP4.5 scenario, and RCP8.5 scenario). We used the spatially dynamic forest landscape model LANDIS-2, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model PnET-2, to simulate the impact of climate change on aboveground net primary production (ANPP), species' establishment probability (SEP) and aboveground biomass of Moshao forest farm in Huitong Ecological Station, which located in Hunan Province during the period of 2014-2094. The results showed that there were obvious differences in SEP and ANPP among different forest types under changing climate. The degrees of response of SEP to climate change for different forest types were shown as: under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, artificial coniferous forest>natural broadleaved forest>artificial broadleaved forest. Under RCP8.5, natural broadleaved forest>artificial broadleaved forest>artificial coniferous forest. The degrees of response of ANPP to climate change for different forest types were shown as: under RCP2.6, artificial broadleaved forest> natural broadleaved forest>artificial coniferous forest. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, natural broadleaved forest>artificial broadleaved forest>artificial coniferous forest. The aboveground biomass of the artificial coniferous forest would decline at about 2050, but the natural broadleaved forest and artificial broadleaved forest showed a rising trend in general. During the period of 2014-2094, the total aboveground biomass under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios increased by 68.2%, 79.3% and 72.6%, respectively. The total aboveground biomass under various climatic scenarios sort as: RCP4.5>RCP8.5>RCP2.6. We thought that an appropriate temperature might be beneficial to the biomass accumulation in this study area. However, overextended temperature might hinder the sustainable development of forest production and ecological function.

The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in Europe using two empirical modelling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobbertin, M.; Solberg, S.; Laubhann, D.; Sterba, H.; Reinds, G. J.; de Vries, W.

2009-04-01

Most recent studies show increasing forest growth in central Europe, rather than a decline as was expected due to negative effects of air pollution. While nitrogen deposition, increasing temperature and change in forest management are discussed as possible causes, quantification of the various environmental factors has rarely been undertaken. In our study, we used data from several hundreds of intensive monitoring plots from the ICP Forests network in Europe, ranging from northern Finland to Spain and southern Italy. Five-year growth data for the period 1994-1999 were available from roughly 650 plots to examine the influence of environmental factors on forest growth. Evaluations focused on the influence of nitrogen, sulphur and acid deposition, temperature, precipitation and drought. Concerning the latter meteorological variables we used the deviation from the long-term (30 years) mean. The study included the main tree species common beech (Fagus sylvatica), sessile or pedunculate oak (Quercus petraea and Q. robur), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). Two very different approaches were used. In the first approach an individual tree-based regression model was applied (Laubhahn et al., 2009), while in the second approach a stand-based model was applied (Solberg et al., 2009). The individual tree-based model had measured basal area increment of each individual tree as a growth response variable and tree size (diameter at breast height), tree competition (basal area of larger trees and stand density index), site factors (e.g. soil C/N ratio, temperature), and environmental factors (e.g. temperature change compared to long-term average, nitrogen and sulphur deposition) as influencing parameters. In the stand-growth model, stem volume increment was used as the growth response variable, after filtering out the expected growth. Expected growth was modelled as a function of site productivity, stand age and a stand density index. Relative volume growth was then calculated as actual growth in % of expected growth. The site productivity was either taken from expert estimates or computed from for each species from three site index curves from northern, central and southern Europe. Requirements for plot selection were different for both methods, resulting in 382 plots selected for the tree-individual approach and 363 plots for the stand growth model approach. Using a mixed model approach, the individual tree-based models for all species showed a high goodness of fit with Pseudo-R2 between 0.33 and 0.44. Diameter at breast height and basal area of larger trees were highly influential variables in all models. Increasing temperature showed a positive effect on growth for all species except Norway spruce. Nitrogen deposition showed a positive impact on growth for all four species. This influence was significant with p < 0.05 for all species except common beech, where the effect was nearly significant (p = 0.077). An increase of 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1 corresponded to an increase in basal area increment between 1.20% and 1.49% depending on species. The stand-growth models explained between 18% and 40% of the variance in expected growth, mainly with a positive effect of site productivity and a negative effect of age. The various models and statistical approaches were fairly consistent, and indicated a fertilizing effect of nitrogen deposition on relative growth, with a slightly above 1 percent increase in volume increment per kg of nitrogen deposition per ha and year. This was most clear for spruce and pine, and most pronounced for plots having soil C/N ratios above 25 (i.e. low nitrogen availability). Also, we found a positive relationship between relative growth and summer temperature, i.e. May-August mean temperature deviation from the 1961-1990 means. Other influences were uncertain. Possibly, sulphur and acid deposition have effects on growth, but these effects are eventually outweighed by the positive effect of nitrogen deposition, because of co-linearity between these variables. Considering an average total stem carbon uptake for European forests near 1730 kg per hectare and year, the increase in growth in the individual tree-based models implied an estimated sequestration of approximately 21- 26 kg carbon per kg nitrogen deposition. Using the growth data and the relative stem growth predicted in the stand growth models, values for the various models ranged between 16 and 24 kg (mean 19 kg) carbon uptake per kg nitrogen deposition. Both approaches, although being very different and using a different set of plots and different methods to estimate the N induced carbon uptake in stem wood resulted in very similar results. In summary, our results indicate a clear fertilization effect of N deposition on European forests, mainly on sites with high C/N soil ratios. It is in line with approaches focused on the fate of N in forest ecosystems and with results of N fertilizer experiments but much smaller than had recently been reported in other field studies (De Vries et al., 2008). Increasing temperature was also found to have a positive influence on forest growth, but this effect seemed to be less clear. References: De Vries W., Solberg S., Dobbertin M., Sterba H., Laubhahn D., Reinds G.J., Nabuurs G.-J., Gundersen P. (2008) Ecologically implausible carbon response. Nature, 451, E1-E3. Laubhann, D., Sterba H., Reinds, G.J., de Vries, W. The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: An individual tree growth model. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2009) doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.050. Solberg, S., Dobbertin, M., Reinds, G.J., Lange, H., Andreassen, K., Garcia Fernandez, P., Hildingsson, A., de Vries, W. Analyses of the impact of changes in atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: A stand growth approach. For. Ecol. Manage. (2009) doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.057.

Gross changes in forest area shape the future carbon balance of tropical forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wei; Ciais, Philippe; Yue, Chao; Gasser, Thomas; Peng, Shushi; Bastos, Ana

2018-01-01

Bookkeeping models are used to estimate land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) carbon fluxes (ELULCC). The uncertainty of bookkeeping models partly arises from data used to define response curves (usually from local data) and their representativeness for application to large regions. Here, we compare biomass recovery curves derived from a recent synthesis of secondary forest plots in Latin America by Poorter et al. (2016) with the curves used previously in bookkeeping models from Houghton (1999) and Hansis et al. (2015). We find that the two latter models overestimate the long-term (100 years) vegetation carbon density of secondary forest by about 25 %. We also use idealized LULCC scenarios combined with these three different response curves to demonstrate the importance of considering gross forest area changes instead of net forest area changes for estimating regional ELULCC. In the illustrative case of a net gain in forest area composed of a large gross loss and a large gross gain occurring during a single year, the initial gross loss has an important legacy effect on ELULCC so that the system can be a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere long after the initial forest area change. We show the existence of critical values of the ratio of gross area change over net area change (γAnetAgross), above which cumulative ELULCC is a net CO2 source rather than a sink for a given time horizon after the initial perturbation. These theoretical critical ratio values derived from simulations of a bookkeeping model are compared with observations from the 30 m resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper data of gross and net forest area change in the Amazon. This allows us to diagnose areas in which current forest gains with a large land turnover will still result in LULCC carbon emissions in 20, 50 and 100 years.

An enhanced forest classification scheme for modeling vegetation-climate interactions based on national forest inventory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majasalmi, Titta; Eisner, Stephanie; Astrup, Rasmus; Fridman, Jonas; Bright, Ryan M.

2018-01-01

Forest management affects the distribution of tree species and the age class of a forest, shaping its overall structure and functioning and in turn the surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass, energy, and momentum. In order to attribute climate effects to anthropogenic activities like forest management, good accounts of forest structure are necessary. Here, using Fennoscandia as a case study, we make use of Fennoscandic National Forest Inventory (NFI) data to systematically classify forest cover into groups of similar aboveground forest structure. An enhanced forest classification scheme and related lookup table (LUT) of key forest structural attributes (i.e., maximum growing season leaf area index (LAImax), basal-area-weighted mean tree height, tree crown length, and total stem volume) was developed, and the classification was applied for multisource NFI (MS-NFI) maps from Norway, Sweden, and Finland. To provide a complete surface representation, our product was integrated with the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (ESA CCI LC) map of present day land cover (v.2.0.7). Comparison of the ESA LC and our enhanced LC products (https://doi.org/10.21350/7zZEy5w3) showed that forest extent notably (κ = 0.55, accuracy 0.64) differed between the two products. To demonstrate the potential of our enhanced LC product to improve the description of the maximum growing season LAI (LAImax) of managed forests in Fennoscandia, we compared our LAImax map with reference LAImax maps created using the ESA LC product (and related cross-walking table) and PFT-dependent LAImax values used in three leading land models. Comparison of the LAImax maps showed that our product provides a spatially more realistic description of LAImax in managed Fennoscandian forests compared to reference maps. This study presents an approach to account for the transient nature of forest structural attributes due to human intervention in different land models.

Drought as a driver of declining boreal forest growth: Integrating forest inventory measurements with models to gain insight into underlying mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, A. T.; Medvigy, D.; Anderegg, W.; Caspersen, J.; Zeng, H.; Pacala, S. W.

2016-12-01

Boreal forests contain over 30% of Earth's terrestrial carbon and are an important component of the land carbon sink. However, the future ability of the boreal forest to maintain a net carbon sink is uncertain and depends on potentially compensating interactions of CO2 fertilization, warmer temperatures, and hotter drought conditions. Observational studies have attributed drought as a major driver of recent declines in growth and increases in mortality in many parts of the North American boreal forest. Yet, most vegetation models have a simplistic representation of vegetation water stress and fail to capture drought-associated growth and mortality trends, impacting our ability to accurately forecast the effects of climate change on the boreal forest. Here, we show additional evidence for widespread declines in boreal tree growth and increasing insect-related mortality in aspen trees based on a mixed model analysis of the Cooperative Alaska Forest Inventory. Our findings indicate that the growth decline is controlled by high midsummer potential evapotranspiration that overpowers any CO2 fertilization signal. We also observe a possible shift in the distribution of angiosperm and gymnosperm, a biological transition that could impact long-term local carbon dynamics. Using insight gained from our mixed model analysis, we perform a regional-scale model evaluation using the boreal forest version of Ecosystem Demography model 2 that includes a dynamic soil organic layer, 7 boreal-specific plant functional types, and a fully mechanistic plant hydraulic scheme. We then use both the Alaskan and Canadian Forest Inventories to constrain our hypotheses and assess whether drought related growth declines can be better attributed to tree drought response from (1) carbon starvation, (2) permanent damage of hydraulic machinery, or (3) delayed recovery of hydraulic machinery. Under each of these scenarios we forecast how drought potentially impacts decadal-scale boreal carbon dynamics.

Modeling light use efficiency in a subtropical mangrove forest equipped with CO2 eddy covariance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barr, J.G.; Engel, V.; Fuentes, J.D.; Fuller, D.O.; Kwon, H.

2013-01-01

Despite the importance of mangrove ecosystems in the global carbon budget, the relationships between environmental drivers and carbon dynamics in these forests remain poorly understood. This limited understanding is partly a result of the challenges associated with in situ flux studies. Tower-based CO2 eddy covariance (EC) systems are installed in only a few mangrove forests worldwide, and the longest EC record from the Florida Everglades contains less than 9 years of observations. A primary goal of the present study was to develop a methodology to estimate canopy-scale photosynthetic light use efficiency in this forest. These tower-based observations represent a basis for associating CO2 fluxes with canopy light use properties, and thus provide the means for utilizing satellite-based reflectance data for larger scale investigations. We present a model for mangrove canopy light use efficiency utilizing the enhanced green vegetation index (EVI) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) that is capable of predicting changes in mangrove forest CO2 fluxes caused by a hurricane disturbance and changes in regional environmental conditions, including temperature and salinity. Model parameters are solved for in a Bayesian framework. The model structure requires estimates of ecosystem respiration (RE), and we present the first ever tower-based estimates of mangrove forest RE derived from nighttime CO2 fluxes. Our investigation is also the first to show the effects of salinity on mangrove forest CO2 uptake, which declines 5% per each 10 parts per thousand (ppt) increase in salinity. Light use efficiency in this forest declines with increasing daily photosynthetic active radiation, which is an important departure from the assumption of constant light use efficiency typically applied in satellite-driven models. The model developed here provides a framework for estimating CO2 uptake by these forests from reflectance data and information about environmental conditions.

Simulating Carbon Stocks and Fluxes of an African Tropical Montane Forest with an Individual-Based Forest Model

PubMed Central

Fischer, Rico; Ensslin, Andreas; Rutten, Gemma; Fischer, Markus; Schellenberger Costa, David; Kleyer, Michael; Hemp, Andreas; Paulick, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas

2015-01-01

Tropical forests are carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystems. Consequently, they play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the present study we used an individual-based forest model (FORMIND) to analyze the carbon balances of a tropical forest. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Model parameters were calibrated using forest inventory data from a tropical forest at Mt. Kilimanjaro. The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces important characteristics of tropical forests (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and leaf area index). The estimated aboveground biomass (385 t/ha) is comparable to biomass values in the Amazon and other tropical forests in Africa. The simulated forest reveals a gross primary production of 24 tcha-1yr-1. Modeling above- and belowground carbon stocks, we analyzed the carbon balance of the investigated tropical forest. The simulated carbon balance of this old-growth forest is zero on average. This study provides an example of how forest models can be used in combination with forest inventory data to investigate forest structure and local carbon balances. PMID:25915854

The value of information for woodland management: Updating a state–transition model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morris, William K.; Runge, Michael C.; Vesk, Peter A.

2017-01-01

Value of information (VOI) analyses reveal the expected benefit of reducing uncertainty to a decision maker. Most ecological VOI analyses have focused on population models rarely addressing more complex community models. We performed a VOI analysis for a complex state–transition model of Box-Ironbark Forest and Woodland management. With three management alternatives (limited harvest/firewood removal (HF), ecological thinning (ET), and no management), managing the system optimally (for 150 yr) with the original information would, on average, increase the amount of forest in a desirable state from 19% to 35% (a 16-percentage point increase). Resolving all uncertainty would, on average, increase the final percentage to 42% (a 19-percentage point increase). However, only resolving the uncertainty for a single parameter was worth almost two-thirds the value of resolving all uncertainty. We found the VOI to depend on the number of management options, increasing as the management flexibility increased. Our analyses show it is more cost-effective to monitor low-density regrowth forest than other states and more cost-effective to experiment with the no-management alternative than the other management alternatives. Importantly, the most cost-effective strategies did not include either the most desired forest states or the least understood management strategy, ET. This implies that managers cannot just rely on intuition to tell them where the most VOI will lie, as critical uncertainties in a complex system are sometimes cryptic.

Influence of Forest Management Regimes on Forest Dynamics in the Upstream Region of the Hun River in Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; Wang, Anzhi; Chen, Wei; Li, Xiaoyu; Lewis, Bernard J.; Lv, Xiaotao

2012-01-01

Balancing forest harvesting and restoration is critical for forest ecosystem management. In this study, we used LANDIS, a spatially explicit forest landscape model, to evaluate the effects of 21 alternative forest management initiatives which were drafted for forests in the upstream region of the Hun River in northeastern China. These management initiatives included a wide range of planting and harvest intensities for Pinus koraiensis, the historically dominant tree species in the region. Multivariate analysis of variance, Shannon's Diversity Index, and planting efficiency (which indicates how many cells of the target species at the final year benefit from per-cell of the planting trees) estimates were used as indicators to analyze the effects of planting and harvesting regimes on forests in the region. The results showed that the following: (1) Increased planting intensity, although augmenting the coverage of P. koraiensis, was accompanied by decreases in planting efficiency and forest diversity. (2) While selective harvesting could increase forest diversity, the abrupt increase of early succession species accompanying this method merits attention. (3) Stimulating rapid forest succession may not be a good management strategy, since the climax species would crowd out other species which are likely more adapted to future climatic conditions in the long run. In light of the above, we suggest a combination of 30% planting intensity with selective harvesting of 50% and 70% of primary and secondary timber species, respectively, as the most effective management regime in this area. In the long run this would accelerate the ultimate dominance of P. koraiensis in the forest via a more effective rate of planting, while maintaining a higher degree of forest diversity. These results are particularly useful for forest managers constrained by limited financial and labor resources who must deal with conflicts between forest harvesting and restoration. PMID:22723930

Current and future patterns of fire-induced forest degradation in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Faria, Bruno L.; Brando, Paulo M.; Macedo, Marcia N.; Panday, Prajjwal K.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Coe, Michael T.

2017-09-01

Amazon droughts directly increase forest flammability by reducing forest understory air and fuel moisture. Droughts also increase forest flammability indirectly by decreasing soil moisture, triggering leaf shedding, branch loss, and tree mortality—all of which contribute to increased fuel loads. These direct and indirect effects can cause widespread forest fires that reduce forest carbon stocks in the Amazon, with potentially important consequences for the global carbon cycle. These processes are expected to become more widespread, common, and intense as global climate changes, yet the mechanisms linking droughts, wildfires, and associated changes in carbon stocks remain poorly understood. Here, we expanded the capabilities of a dynamic forest carbon model to better represent (1) drought effects on carbon and fuel dynamics and (2) understory fire behavior and severity. We used the refined model to quantify changes in Pan-Amazon live carbon stocks as a function of the maximum climatological water deficit (MCWD) and fire intensity, under both historical and future climate conditions. We found that the 2005 and 2010 droughts increased potential fire intensity by 226 kW m-1 and 494 kW m-1, respectively. These increases were due primarily to increased understory dryness (109 kW m-1 in 2005; 124 kW m-1 in 2010) and altered forest structure (117 kW m-1 in 2005; 370 kW m-1 in 2010) effects. Combined, these historic droughts drove total simulated reductions in live carbon stocks of 0.016 (2005) and 0.027 (2010) PgC across the Amazon Basin. Projected increases in future fire intensity increased simulated carbon losses by up to 90% per unit area burned, compared with modern climate. Increased air temperature was the primary driver of changes in simulated future fire intensity, while reduced precipitation was secondary, particularly in the eastern portion of the Basin. Our results show that fire-drought interactions strongly affect live carbon stocks and that future climate change, combined with the synergistic effects of drought on forest flammability, may strongly influence the stability of tropical forests in the future.

The role of organic soil layer on the fate of Siberian larch forest and near-surface permafrost under changing climate: A simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SATO, H.; Iwahana, G.; Ohta, T.

2013-12-01

Siberian larch forest is the largest coniferous forest region in the world. In this vast region, larch often forms nearly pure stands, regenerated by recurrent fire. This region is characterized by a short and dry growing season; the annual mean precipitation for Yakutsk was only about 240 mm. To maintain forest ecosystem under such small precipitation, underlying permafrost and seasonal soil freezing-thawing-cycle have been supposed to play important roles; (1) frozen ground inhibits percolation of soil water into deep soil layers, and (2) excess soil water at the end of growing season can be carried over until the next growing season as ice, and larch trees can use the melt water. As a proof for this explanation, geographical distribution of Siberian larch region highly coincides with continuous and discontinuous permafrost zone. Recent observations and simulation studies suggests that existences of larch forest and permafrost in subsurface layer are co-dependent; permafrost maintains the larch forest by enhancing water use efficiency of trees, while larch forest maintains permafrost by inhibiting solar radiation and preventing heat exchanges between soil and atmosphere. Owing to such complexity and absence of enough ecosystem data available, current-generation Earth System Models significantly diverse in their prediction of structure and key ecosystem functions in Siberian larch forest under changing climate. Such uncertainty should in turn expand uncertainty over predictions of climate, because Siberian larch forest should have major role in the global carbon balance with its huge area and vast potential carbon pool within the biomass and soil, and changes in boreal forest albedo can have a considerable effect on Northern Hemisphere climate. In this study, we developed an integrated ecosystem model, which treats interactions between plant-dynamics and freeze-thaw cycles. This integrated model contains a dynamic global vegetation model SEIB-DGVM, which simulates plant and carbon dynamics. It also contains a one-dimensional land surface model NOAH 2.7.1, which simulates soil moisture (both liquid and frozen), soil temperature, snowpack depth and density, canopy water content, and the energy and water fluxes. This integrated model quantitatively reconstructs post-fire development of forest structure (i.e. LAI and biomass) and organic soil layer, which dampens heat exchanges between soil and atmosphere. With the post-fire development of LAI and the soil organic layer, the integrated model also quantitatively reconstructs changes in seasonal maximum of active layer depth. The integrated model is then driven by the IPCC A1B scenario of rising atmospheric CO2, and by climate changes during the twenty-first century resulting from the change in CO2. This simulation suggests that forecasted global warming would causes decay of Siberian larch ecosystem, but such responses could be delayed by "memory effect" of the soil organic layer for hundreds of years.

The AmazonFACE research program: assessing the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on the ecology and resilience of the Amazon forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapola, David; Quesada, Carlos; Norby, Richard; Araújo, Alessandro; Domingues, Tomas; Hartley, Iain; Kruijt, Bart; Lewin, Keith; Meir, Patrick; Ometto, Jean; Rammig, Anja

2016-04-01

The existence, magnitude and duration of a supposed "CO2 fertilization" effect in tropical forests remains largely undetermined, despite being suggested for nearly 20 years as a key knowledge gap for understanding the future resilience of Amazonian forests and its impact on the global carbon cycle. Reducing this uncertainty is critical for assessing the future of the Amazon region as well as its vulnerability to climate change. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) research program is an integrated model-experiment initiative of unprecedented scope in an old-growth Amazon forest near Manaus, Brazil - the first of its kind in tropical forest. The experimental treatment will simulate an atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of the future in order to address the question: "How will rising atmospheric CO2 affect the resilience of the Amazon forest, the biodiversity it harbors, and the ecosystem services it provides, in light of projected climatic changes?" AmazonFACE is divided into three phases: (I) pre-experimental ecological characterization of the research site; (II) pilot experiment comprised of two 30-m diameter plots, with one treatment plot maintained at elevated [CO2] (ambient +200 ppmv), and the other control plot at ambient [CO2]; and (III) a fully-replicated long-term experiment comprised of four pairs of control/treatment FACE plots maintained for 10 years. A team of scientists from Brazil, USA, Australia and Europe will employ state-of-the-art methods to study the forest inside these plots in terms of carbon metabolism and cycling, water use, nutrient cycling, forest community composition, and interactions with environmental stressors. All project phases also encompass ecosystem-modeling activities in a way such that models provide hypothesis to be verified in the experiment, which in turn will feed models to ultimately produce more accurate projections of the environment. Resulting datasets and analyses will be a valuable resource for a broad community, especially ecosystem and climate modelers, and policy-makers.

Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B.; Fisk, J. P.; Holm, J. A.; Bailey, V.; Bohrer, G.; Gough, C. M.

2015-01-01

Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. It is thus unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging US forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models - Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), a classic big-leaf model, and the ZELIG and ED (Ecosystem Demography) gap-oriented models - could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ZELIG and ED correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes, in particular gross primary production or net primary production (NPP). Biome-BGC NPP was correctly resilient but for the wrong reasons, and could not match the absolute observational values. ZELIG and ED, in contrast, exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. It is thus an open question whether most ecosystem models will simulate correctly the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.

Moderate forest disturbance as a stringent test for gap and big-leaf models

DOE PAGES

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Fisk, Justin P.; Holm, Jennifer; ...

2015-01-27

Disturbance-induced tree mortality is a key factor regulating the carbon balance of a forest, but tree mortality and its subsequent effects are poorly represented processes in terrestrial ecosystem models. It is thus unclear whether models can robustly simulate moderate (non-catastrophic) disturbances, which tend to increase biological and structural complexity and are increasingly common in aging US forests. We tested whether three forest ecosystem models – Biome-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), a classic big-leaf model, and the ZELIG and ED (Ecosystem Demography) gap-oriented models – could reproduce the resilience to moderate disturbance observed in an experimentally manipulated forest (the Forest Accelerated Succession Experimentmore » in northern Michigan, USA, in which 38% of canopy dominants were stem girdled and compared to control plots). Each model was parameterized, spun up, and disturbed following similar protocols and run for 5 years post-disturbance. The models replicated observed declines in aboveground biomass well. Biome-BGC captured the timing and rebound of observed leaf area index (LAI), while ZELIG and ED correctly estimated the magnitude of LAI decline. None of the models fully captured the observed post-disturbance C fluxes, in particular gross primary production or net primary production (NPP). Biome-BGC NPP was correctly resilient but for the wrong reasons, and could not match the absolute observational values. ZELIG and ED, in contrast, exhibited large, unobserved drops in NPP and net ecosystem production. The biological mechanisms proposed to explain the observed rapid resilience of the C cycle are typically not incorporated by these or other models. It is thus an open question whether most ecosystem models will simulate correctly the gradual and less extensive tree mortality characteristic of moderate disturbances.« less

Effects of disturbance and climate change on ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wylie, Bruce K.; Rigge, Matthew B.; Brisco, Brian; Mrnaghan, Kevin; Rover, Jennifer R.; Long, Jordan

2014-01-01

A warming climate influences boreal forest productivity, dynamics, and disturbance regimes. We used ecosystem models and 250 m satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data averaged over the growing season (GSN) to model current, and estimate future, ecosystem performance. We modeled Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), or anticipated productivity, in undisturbed stands over the 2000–2008 period from a variety of abiotic data sources, using a rule-based piecewise regression tree. The EEP model was applied to a future climate ensemble A1B projection to quantify expected changes to mature boreal forest performance. Ecosystem Performance Anomalies (EPA), were identified as the residuals of the EEP and GSN relationship and represent performance departures from expected performance conditions. These performance data were used to monitor successional events following fire. Results suggested that maximum EPA occurs 30–40 years following fire, and deciduous stands generally have higher EPA than coniferous stands. Mean undisturbed EEP is projected to increase 5.6% by 2040 and 8.7% by 2070, suggesting an increased deciduous component in boreal forests. Our results contribute to the understanding of boreal forest successional dynamics and its response to climate change. This information enables informed decisions to prepare for, and adapt to, climate change in the Yukon River Basin forest.

Hydrologic response to forest cover changes following a Mountain Pine Beetle outbreak in the context of a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Dan; Jost, Georg; Nelson, Harry; Smith, Russell

2013-04-01

Over the last 15 years, there has been extensive mortality of pine forests in western North America associated with an outbreak of Mountain Pine Beetle, often followed by salvage logging. The objective of this study was to quantify the separate and combined effects of forest recovery and climate change over the 21st century on catchment hydrology in the San Jose watershed, located in the semi-arid Interior Plateau of British Columbia. Forest cover changes were simulated using a dynamic spatial model that uses a decentralized planning approach. We implemented management strategies representing current timber management objectives around achieving targeted harvest levels and incorporating existing management constraints under two different scenarios, one with no climate change and one under climate change, using climate-adjusted growth and yield curves. In addition, higher rates of fire disturbance were modelled under climate change. Under climate change, while productivity improves for some species (mainly Douglas-fir on better quality sites), on drier and poorer quality sites most species, especially Lodgepole Pine, become significantly less productive, and stocking is reduced to the point that those sites transition into grasslands. The combined effect of initial age classes (where the forest has been severely impacted by MPB), increased fire, and reduced stocking results in a greater proportion of the forest in younger age classes compared to a "Business As Usual" scenario with no climate change. The hydrologic responses to changes in vegetation cover and climate were evaluated with the flexible Hydrology Emulator and Modelling Platform (HEMP) developed at the University of British Columbia. HEMP allows a flexible discretization of the landscape. Water is moved vertically within landscape units by processes such as precipitation, canopy interception and soil infiltration, and routed laterally between units as a function of local soil and groundwater storage. The model was calibrated and tested on three stream gauges and on snow course data. A 'guided' GLUE approach was used to address the effects of parameter uncertainty and uncertainty in streamflow data on the uncertainty in future projections. Overall, the establishment and growth of post-disturbance forest stands result in a substantial reduction in snow accumulation and melt rates, and an increase in evapotranspiration, together resulting in a reduction in streamflow. The influence of projected climate warming was to advance the timing of spring melt, exacerbating the reductions in late-summer streamflow associated with forest recovery. In some climate scenarios, increases in precipitation helped to offset reductions in streamflow associated with forest recovery. Some challenges associated with linking output from the forest dynamics simulations and the hydrologic model are identified and potential solutions discussed.

Catchment hydrological responses to forest harvest amount and spatial pattern

EPA Science Inventory

Forest harvest effects on streamflow dynamics have been well described experimentally, but a clear understanding of process-level hydrological controls can be difficult to ascertain from data alone. We apply a new model, Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments (VE...

Nitrogen deposition and forest carbon sequestration: a quantitative synthesis from plot to global scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodale, C. L.; Thomas, R. Q.; Dentener, F. J.; Adams, M.; Baron, J.; Emmett, B.; Evans, C. B.; Fernandez, I. J.; Gundersen, P.; Hagedorn, F.; Kulmatiski, A.; Lovett, G. M.; McNulty, S.; Melvin, A. M.; Moldan, F.; Ollinger, S. V.; Schleppi, P.; Weiss, M.

2009-12-01

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition has long been proposed as a driver of terrestrial carbon sequestration, but its quantitative effect remains poorly constrained. Global models, observations along N deposition gradients, and plot-level forest N-addition experiments provide a range of estimates of the amount of C sequestered in response to added N. Synthesis of results from 48 multi-year N-addition studies in temperate forests show responses ranging from +53 to -95 kg C of live tree production per unit of N addition. Negative effects on live tree C occurred in stands with low rates of biomass accumulation, and occurred more rapidly with higher N application rates. More positive effects occurred in younger stands, and with greater efficiency of C gain at lower N addition rates. Observations of tree growth along N deposition gradients in Europe and the eastern U.S. produced broadly similar tree growth responses (19-56 kg C/kg N) as the N addition experiments. Soil C response increased with N addition rate, and averaged 4 + 12 kg C/kg N. These surface soil responses suggest modest suppression of soil decomposition induced by added N in some but not all sites due to several possible mechanisms, none of which are yet considered in global models. Global-scale estimates of N deposition effects on forest C sequestration have ranged from 0.1 to 2.0 Pg C/y depending on assumptions on the rate of N deposition to forests, its fate, and the C:N ratios of recipient C pools. A new group of biogeochemistry models designed for coupling with global climate models all simulate relatively limited terrestrial C sinks from atmospheric N deposition alone (0.2 - 0.4 PgC/y), more in combination with rising atmospheric CO2. Future model projections should benefit from rigorous comparisons with the range of observed C responses reviewed here.

DRAINMOD-FOREST: Integrated modeling of hydrology, soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and plant growth for drained forests

Treesearch

Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya; G.M. Chescheir

2012-01-01

We present a hybrid and stand-level forest ecosystem model, DRAINMOD-FOREST, for simulating the hydrology, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics, and tree growth for drained forest lands under common silvicultural practices. The model was developed by linking DRAINMOD, the hydrological model, and DRAINMOD-N II, the soil C and N dynamics model, to a forest growth model,...

Unbiased split variable selection for random survival forests using maximally selected rank statistics.

PubMed

Wright, Marvin N; Dankowski, Theresa; Ziegler, Andreas

2017-04-15

The most popular approach for analyzing survival data is the Cox regression model. The Cox model may, however, be misspecified, and its proportionality assumption may not always be fulfilled. An alternative approach for survival prediction is random forests for survival outcomes. The standard split criterion for random survival forests is the log-rank test statistic, which favors splitting variables with many possible split points. Conditional inference forests avoid this split variable selection bias. However, linear rank statistics are utilized by default in conditional inference forests to select the optimal splitting variable, which cannot detect non-linear effects in the independent variables. An alternative is to use maximally selected rank statistics for the split point selection. As in conditional inference forests, splitting variables are compared on the p-value scale. However, instead of the conditional Monte-Carlo approach used in conditional inference forests, p-value approximations are employed. We describe several p-value approximations and the implementation of the proposed random forest approach. A simulation study demonstrates that unbiased split variable selection is possible. However, there is a trade-off between unbiased split variable selection and runtime. In benchmark studies of prediction performance on simulated and real datasets, the new method performs better than random survival forests if informative dichotomous variables are combined with uninformative variables with more categories and better than conditional inference forests if non-linear covariate effects are included. In a runtime comparison, the method proves to be computationally faster than both alternatives, if a simple p-value approximation is used. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelling the limits on the response of net carbon exchange to fertilization in a south-eastern pine forest

Treesearch

Chun-Tai. Lai; G. Katul; J. Butnor; M. Siqueira; D. Ellsworth; C. Maier; Kurt Johnsen; S. Mickeand; R. Oren

2002-01-01

Using a combination of model simulations and detailed measurements at a hierarchy of scales conducted at a sandhills forest site, the effect of fertilization on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its components in 6-year-old Pinus taeda stands was quantified. The detailed measurements, collected over a 20-d period in September and October, included gas...

Simulating fire and forest dynamics for a coordinated landscape fuel treatment project in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Scott L. Stephens; Gary B. Roller; John Battles

2011-01-01

We evaluate an actual landscape fuel treatment project that was designed by local U. S. Forest Service managers in the northern Sierra Nevada. We model the effects of this project at reducing landscape-level fire behavior at multiple time steps, up to nearly 30 yr beyond treatment implementation. Additionally, we modeled planned treatments under multiple diameter-...

Developing statistical wildlife habitat relationships for assessing cumulative effects of fuels treatments: Final Report for Joint Fire Science Program Project

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin S. McKelvey

2006-01-01

The primary weakness in our current ability to evaluate future landscapes in terms of wildlife lies in the lack of quantitative models linking wildlife to forest stand conditions, including fuels treatments. This project focuses on 1) developing statistical wildlife habitat relationships models (WHR) utilizing Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and National Vegetation...

Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests

Treesearch

Linda B. Brubaker; Philip E. Higuera; T. Scott Rupp; Mark A. Olson; Patricia M. Anderson; Feng Sheng. Hu

2009-01-01

Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a...

Effects of Measurement Errors on Individual Tree Stem Volume Estimates for the Austrian National Forest Inventory

Treesearch

Ambros Berger; Thomas Gschwantner; Ronald E. McRoberts; Klemens Schadauer

2014-01-01

National forest inventories typically estimate individual tree volumes using models that rely on measurements of predictor variables such as tree height and diameter, both of which are subject to measurement error. The aim of this study was to quantify the impacts of these measurement errors on the uncertainty of the model-based tree stem volume estimates. The impacts...

Use of models to study forest fire behavior

Treesearch

Wallace L. Fons

1961-01-01

The U.S. Forest Service has started a laboratory study with the ultimate objective of determining model laws for fire behavior. The study includes an examination of the effect of such variables as species of wood, density of wood, moisture content, size of fuel particle, spacing, dimensions of fuel bed, wind, and slope on the rate of spread of fire and the partition of...

Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

2011-01-01

Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...