The Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

Elizabeth Reinhardt; Nicholas L. Crookston

2003-01-01

The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) simulates fuel dynamics and potential fire behaviour over time, in the context of stand development and management. Existing models of fire behavior and fire effects were added to FVS to form this extension. New submodels representing snag and fuel dynamics were created to complete the linkages...

Live tree carbon stock equivalence of fire and fuels extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator and Forest Inventory and Analysis approaches

Treesearch

James E. Smith; Coeli M. Hoover

2017-01-01

The carbon reports in the Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) provide two alternate approaches to carbon estimates for live trees (Rebain 2010). These are (1) the FFE biomass algorithms, which are volumebased biomass equations, and (2) the Jenkins allometric equations (Jenkins and others 2003), which are diameter based. Here, we...

Revisions to the 1995 map of ecological subregions that affect users of the southern variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

W. Henry McNab; Chad E. Keyser

2011-01-01

The Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator utilizes ecological units mapped in 1995 by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, to refine tree growth models for the Southern United States. The 2007 revision of the 1995 map resulted in changes of identification and boundary delineation for some ecoregion units. In this report, we summarize the...

Modeling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R. W. A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V. K.; Melton, J. R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

2014-05-01

Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model (Lund Potsdam Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) was adapted to simulate present-day potential vegetation as a baseline for climate change impact assessments in the evergreen and deciduous forests of Bolivia. Results were compared to biomass measurements (819 plots) and remote sensing data. Using regional parameter values for allometric relations, specific leaf area, wood density, and disturbance interval, a realistic transition from the evergreen Amazon to the deciduous dry forest was simulated. This transition coincided with threshold values for precipitation (1400 mm yr-1) and water deficit (i.e., potential evapotranspiration minus precipitation) (-830 mm yr-1), beyond which leaf abscission became a competitive advantage. Significant correlations were found between modeled and observed values of seasonal leaf abscission (R2 = 0.6, p <0.001) and vegetation carbon (R2 = 0.31, p <0.01). Modeled Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index showed that dry forests were more sensitive to rainfall anomalies than wet forests. GPP was positively correlated to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index in the Amazon and negatively correlated to consecutive dry days. Decreasing rainfall trends were simulated to reduce GPP in the Amazon. The current model setup provides a baseline for assessing the potential impacts of climate change in the transition zone from wet to dry tropical forests in Bolivia.

Development of carbon response trajectories using FIA plot data and FVS growth simulator: challenges of a large scale simulation project

Treesearch

James B. McCarter; Sean Healey

2015-01-01

The Forest Carbon Management Framework (ForCaMF) integrates Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot inventory data, disturbance histories, and carbon response trajectories to develop estimates of disturbance and management effects on carbon pools for the National Forest System. All appropriate FIA inventory plots are simulated using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (...

Simulating topographic controls on the abundance of larch forest in eastern Siberia, and its consequences under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, H.; Kobayashi, H.

2017-12-01

In eastern Siberia, larches (Larix spp.) often exist in pure stands, constructing the world's largest coniferous forest, of which changes can significantly affect the earth's albedo and the global carbon balance. Our previous studies tried to reconstruct this vegetation, aiming to forecast its structures and functions under changing climate (1, 2). In previous studies of simulating vegetation at large geographical scales, the examining area is divided into coarse grid cells such as 0.5 × 0.5 degree resolution, and topographical heterogeneities within each grid cell are just ignored. However, in Siberian larch area, which is located on the environmental edge of existence of forest ecosystem, abundance of larch trees largely depends on topographic condition at the scale of tens to hundreds meters. In our preliminary analysis, we found a quantitative pattern that topographic properties controls the abundance of larch forest via both drought and flooding stresses in eastern Siberia. We, therefore, refined the hydrological sub-model of our dynamic vegetation model SEIB-DGVM, and validated whether the modified model can reconstruct the pattern, examined its impact on the estimation of biomass and vegetation productivity under the current and forecasted future climatic conditions. -- References --1. Sato, H., et al. (2010). "Simulation study of the vegetation structure and function in eastern Siberian larch forests using the individual-based vegetation model SEIB-DGVM." Forest Ecology and Management 259(3): 301-311. 2. Sato, H., et al. (2016). "Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends." Ecology and Evolution

Simulating Pacific Northwest Forest Response to Climate Change: How We Made Model Results Useful for Vulnerability Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. B.; Kerns, B. K.; Halofsky, J.

2014-12-01

GCM-based climate projections and downscaled climate data proliferate, and there are many climate-aware vegetation models in use by researchers. Yet application of fine-scale DGVM based simulation output in national forest vulnerability assessments is not common, because there are technical, administrative and social barriers for their use by managers and policy makers. As part of a science-management climate change adaptation partnership, we performed simulations of vegetation response to climate change for four national forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) for use in vulnerability assessments. Our simulation results under business-as-usual scenarios suggest a starkly different future forest conditions for three out of the four national forests in the study area, making their adoption by forest managers a potential challenge. However, using DGVM output to structure discussion of potential vegetation changes provides a suitable framework to discuss the dynamic nature of vegetation change compared to using more commonly available model output (e.g. species distribution models). From the onset, we planned and coordinated our work with national forest managers to maximize the utility and the consideration of the simulation results in planning. Key lessons from this collaboration were: (1) structured and strategic selection of a small number climate change scenarios that capture the range of variability in future conditions simplified results; (2) collecting and integrating data from managers for use in simulations increased support and interest in applying output; (3) a structured, regionally focused, and hierarchical calibration of the DGVM produced well-validated results; (4) simple approaches to quantifying uncertainty in simulation results facilitated communication; and (5) interpretation of model results in a holistic context in relation to multiple lines of evidence produced balanced guidance. This latest point demonstrates the importance of using model out as a forum for discussion along with other information, rather than using model output in an inappropriately predictive sense. These lessons are being applied currently to other national forests in the Pacific Northwest to contribute in vulnerability assessments.

Accuracy and equivalence testing of crown ratio models and assessment of their impact on diameter growth and basal area increment predictions of two variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

Laura P. Leites; Andrew P. Robinson; Nicholas L. Crookston

2009-01-01

Diameter growth (DG) equations in many existing forest growth and yield models use tree crown ratio (CR) as a predictor variable. Where CR is not measured, it is estimated from other measured variables. We evaluated CR estimation accuracy for the models in two Forest Vegetation Simulator variants: the exponential and the logistic CR models used in the North...

Relating seasonal patterns of the AVHRR vegetation index to simulated photosynthesis and transpiration of forests in different climates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Running, Steven W.; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.

1988-01-01

Weekly AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values for 1983-1984 for seven sites of diverse climate in North America were correlated with results of an ecosystem simulation model of a hypothetical forest stand for the corresponding period at each site. The tendency of raw NDVI data to overpredict photosynthesis and transpiration on water limited sites was shown to be partially corrected by using an aridity index of annual radiation/annual precipitation. The results suggest that estimates of vegetation productivity using the global vegetation index are only accurate as annual integrations, unless unsubsampled local area coverage NDVI data can be tested against forest photosynthesis, transpiration and aboveground net primary production data measured at shorter time intervals.

Spatial simulation of forest succession and timber harvesting using LANDIS

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Stephen R. Shifley; David J. Mladenoff; Kevin K. Nimerfro; Hong S. He

2000-01-01

The LANDIS model simulates ecological dynamics, including forest succession, disturbance, seed dispersal and establishment, fire and wind disturbance, and their interactions. We describe the addition to LANDIS of capabilities to simulate forest vegetation management, including harvest. Stands (groups of cells) are prioritized for harvest using one of four ranking...

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

PubMed Central

Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas. PMID:26488750

An empirical approach for estimating natural regeneration for the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

Don Vandendriesche

2010-01-01

The “partial” establishment model that is available for most Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) geographic variants does not provide an estimate of natural regeneration. Users are responsible for supplying this key aspect of stand development. The process presented for estimating natural regeneration begins by summarizing small tree components based on observations from...

Percent canopy cover and stand structure statistics from the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Albert R. Stage

1999-01-01

Estimates of percent canopy cover generated by the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) are corrected for crown overlap using an equation presented in this paper. A comparison of the new cover estimate to some others is provided. The cover estimate is one of several describing stand structure. The structure descriptors also include major species, ranges of diameters, tree...

Simulating fuel treatment effects in dry forests of the western United States: testing the principles of a fire-safe forest

Treesearch

Morris C. Johnson; Maureen C Kennedy; David L. Peterson

2011-01-01

We used the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS) to simulate fuel treatment effects on stands in low- to midelevation dry forests (e.g., ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex. P. & C. Laws.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) of the western United States. We...

Modeling of the interactions between forest vegetation, disturbances, and sediment yields

Treesearch

Erkan Istanbulluoglu; David G. Tarboton; Robert T. Pack; Charles H. Luce

2004-01-01

The controls of forest vegetation, wildfires, and harvest vegetation disturbances on the frequency and magnitude of sediment delivery from a small watershed (~3.9 km2) in the Idaho batholith are investigated through numerical modeling. The model simulates soil development based on continuous bedrock weathering and the divergence of diffusive...

Influence of topographic heterogeneity on the abandance of larch forest in eastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, H.; Kobayashi, H.

2016-12-01

In eastern Siberia, larches (Larix spp.) often exist in pure stands, constructing the world's largest coniferous forest, of which changes can significantly affect the earth's albedo and the global carbon balance. We have conducted simulation studies for this vegetation, aiming to forecast its structures and functions under changing climate (1, 2). In previous studies of simulating vegetation at large geographical scales, the examining area is divided into coarse grid cells such as 0.5 * 0.5 degree resolution, and topographical heterogeneities within each grid cell are just ignored. However, in Siberian larch area, which is located on the environmental edge of existence of forest ecosystem, abundance of larch trees largely depends on topographic condition at the scale of tens to hundreds meters. We, therefore, analyzed patterns of within-grid-scale heterogeneity of larch LAI as a function of topographic condition, and examined its underlying reason. For this analysis, larch LAI was estimated for each 1/112 degree from the SPOT-VEGETATION data, and topographic properties such as angularity and aspect direction were estimated form the ASTER-GDEM data. Through this analysis, we found that, for example, sign of correlation between angularity and larch LAI depends on hydrological condition on the grid cell. We then refined the hydrological sub-model of our vegetation model SEIB-DGVM, and validated whether the modified model can reconstruct these patterns, and examined its impact on the estimation of biomass and vegetation productivity of entire larch region. -- References --1. Sato, H., et al. (2010). "Simulation study of the vegetation structure and function in eastern Siberian larch forests using the individual-based vegetation model SEIB-DGVM." Forest Ecology and Management 259(3): 301-311.2. Sato, H., et al. (2016). "Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends." Ecology and Evolution

Improvement of effectiveness of existing Casuarina equisetifolia forests in mitigating tsunami damage.

PubMed

Samarakoon, M B; Tanaka, Norio; Iimura, Kosuke

2013-01-15

Coastal vegetation can play a significant role in reducing the severity of a tsunami because the energy associated with the tsunami is dissipated when it passes through coastal vegetation. Field surveys were conducted on the eastern coastline of Sri Lanka to investigate which vegetation species are effective against a tsunami and to evaluate the effectiveness of existing Casuarina equisetifolia forests in tsunami mitigation. Open gaps in C. equisetifolia forests were identified as a disadvantage, and introduction of a new vegetation belt in front or back of the existing C. equisetifolia forest is proposed to reduce the disadvantages of the open gap. Among the many plant species encountered during the field survey, ten species were selected as effective for tsunami disaster mitigation. The selection of appropriate vegetation for the front or back vegetation layer was based on the vegetation thickness per unit area (dN(u)) and breaking moment of each species. A numerical model based on two-dimensional nonlinear long-wave equations was applied to explain the present situation of open gaps in C. equisetifolia forests, and to evaluate the effectiveness of combined vegetation systems. The results of the numerical simulation for existing conditions of C. equisetifolia forests revealed that the tsunami force ratio (R = tsunami force with vegetation/tsunami force without vegetation) was 1.4 at the gap exit. The species selected for the front and back vegetation layers were Pandanus odoratissimus and Manilkara hexandra, respectively. A numerical simulation of the modified system revealed that R was reduced to 0.7 in the combined P. odoratissimus and C. equisetifolia system. However, the combination of C. equisetifolia and M. hexandra did not effectively reduce R at the gap exit. Therefore, P. odoratissimus as the front vegetation layer is proposed to reduce the disadvantages of the open gaps in existing C. equisetifolia forests. The optimal width of P. odoratissimus (W(1)) calculated from the numerical simulation was W(1) = 10 m. R at the exit of a 15-m-wide open gap was 0.8, and therefore the proposed system was appropriate for cases with the highest velocity at the gap exit as well. Establishment of a new front vegetation layer except for open gaps that are essential, such as access roads to the beach, is proposed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

Treesearch

Alicia Azpeleta Tarancon; Peter Z. Fule; Kristen L. Shive; Carolyn H. Sieg; Andrew Sanchez Meador; Barbara Strom

2014-01-01

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned...

Utilizing random forests imputation of forest plot data for landscape-level wildfire analyses

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark A. Finney; Nicholas L. Crookston

2014-01-01

Maps of the number, size, and species of trees in forests across the United States are desirable for a number of applications. For landscape-level fire and forest simulations that use the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a spatial tree-level dataset, or “tree list”, is a necessity. FVS is widely used at the stand level for simulating fire effects on tree mortality,...

Soil Moisture under Different Vegetation cover in response to Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Z.; Zhang, J.; Guo, B.; Ma, J.; Wu, Y.

2016-12-01

The response study of soil moisture to different precipitation and landcover is significant in the field of Hydropedology. The influence of precipitation to soil moisture is obvious in addition to individual stable aquifer. With data of Hillsborough County, Florida, USA, the alluvial wetland forest and ungrazed Bahia grass that under wet and dry periods were chosen as the research objects, respectively. HYDRUS-3D numerical simulation method was used to simulate soil moisture dynamics in the root zone (10-50 cm) of those vegetation. The soil moisture response to precipitation was analyzed. The results showed that the simulation results of alluvial wetland forest by HYDRUS-3D were better than that of the Bahia grass, and for the same vegetation, the simulation results of soil moisture under dry period were better. Precipitation was more in June, 2003, the soil moisture change of alluvial wetland forest in 10-30 cm soil layer and Bahia grass in 10 cm soil layer were consistent with the precipitation change conspicuously. The alluvial wetland forest soil moisture declined faster than Bahia grass under dry period, which demonstrated that Bahia grass had strong ability to hold water. Key words: alluvial wetland forest; Bahia grass; soil moisture; HYDRUS-3D; precipitation

Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S. L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

2013-04-01

Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forest and leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. To accurately quantify the role of fire in historical and current regional forest carbon balance using models, one needs to explicitly simulate the new forest cohort that is established after fire. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate boreal forest fire CO2 emissions and follow-up recovery after a stand-replacing fire, with representation of postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the following self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against three clusters of postfire forest chronosequence observations in Canada and Alaska. Evaluation variables for simulated postfire carbon dynamics include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index (LAI), and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). The model simulation results, when forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history on each chronosequence site, generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m-2 yr-1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m-2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m-2). We find that current postfire forest carbon sink on evaluation sites observed by chronosequence methods is mainly driven by historical atmospheric CO2 increase when forests recover from fire disturbance. Historical climate generally exerts a negative effect, probably due to increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increase without sufficient increase in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon stocks evolution after fire, making it suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role on ecosystem carbon balance.

Simulating forest productivity along a neotropical elevational transect: temperature variation and carbon use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marthews, T.; Malhi, Y.; Girardin, C.; Silva-Espejo, J.; Aragão, L.; Metcalfe, D.; Rapp, J.; Mercado, L.; Fisher, R.; Galbraith, D.; Fisher, J.; Salinas-Revilla, N.; Friend, A.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Williams, R.

2012-04-01

A better understanding of the mechanisms controlling the magnitude and sign of carbon components in tropical forest ecosystems is important for reliable estimation of this important regional component of the global carbon cycle. We used the JULES vegetation model to simulate all components of the carbon balance at six sites along an Andes-Amazon transect across Peru and Brazil and compared the results to published field measurements. In the upper montane zone the model predicted a vegetation dieback, indicating a need for better parameterisation of cloud forest vegetation. In the lower montane and lowland zones simulated ecosystem productivity and respiration were predicted with reasonable accuracy, although not always within the error bounds of the observations. Model-predicted carbon use efficiency in this transect surprisingly did not increase with elevation, but remained close to the 'temperate' value 0.5. This may be explained by elevational changes in the balance between growth and maintenance respiration within the forest canopy, as controlled by both temperature- and pressure-mediated processes.

Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

2013-01-01

Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m−2 yr−1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m−2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m−2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon-stock evolution after fire. This makes the model suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role in the ecosystem carbon balance.

Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S. L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

2013-12-01

Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m-2 yr-1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m-2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m-2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation results demonstrate that a global vegetation model such as ORCHIDEE is able to capture the essential ecosystem processes in fire-disturbed boreal forests and produces satisfactory results in terms of both carbon fluxes and carbon-stock evolution after fire. This makes the model suitable for regional simulations in boreal regions where fire regimes play a key role in the ecosystem carbon balance.

Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; Raymond Drapeck

2008-01-01

The response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change was simulated for California using the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined, and increases in the productivity of evergreen hardwoods led to the displacement of Evergreen Conifer Forest by Mixed...

Seeing the forest for the trees: utilizing modified random forests imputation of forest plot data for landscape-level analyses

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark A. Finney

2015-01-01

Mapping the number, size, and species of trees in forests across the western United States has utility for a number of research endeavors, ranging from estimation of terrestrial carbon resources to tree mortality following wildfires. For landscape fire and forest simulations that use the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a tree-level dataset, or “tree list”, is a...

Carbon stock and carbon turnover in boreal and temperate forests - Integration of remote sensing data and global vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Santoro, Maurizio; Tum, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane

2016-04-01

Long-term vegetation dynamics are one of the key uncertainties of the carbon cycle. There are large differences in simulated vegetation carbon stocks and fluxes including productivity, respiration and carbon turnover between global vegetation models. Especially the implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current models and their importance at global scale is highly uncertain. These shortcomings have been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which cannot be provided by inventory data alone. Instead, we recently have been able to estimate northern boreal and temperate forest carbon stocks based on radar remote sensing data. Our spatially explicit product (0.01° resolution) shows strong agreement to inventory-based estimates at a regional scale and allows for a spatial evaluation of carbon stocks and dynamics simulated by global vegetation models. By combining this state-of-the-art biomass product and NPP datasets originating from remote sensing, we are able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests along spatial gradients. We observe an increasing turnover rate with colder winter temperatures and longer winters in boreal forests, suggesting frost damage and the trade-off between frost adaptation and growth being important mortality processes in this ecosystem. In contrast, turnover rate increases with climatic conditions favouring drought and insect outbreaks in temperate forests. Investigated global vegetation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce observation-based spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well in terms of NPP, simulated vegetation carbon stocks are severely biased compared to our biomass dataset. Current limitations lead to considerable uncertainties in the estimated vegetation carbon turnover, contributing substantially to the forest feedback to climate change. Our results are the basis for improving mortality concepts in models and estimating their impact on the land carbon balance.

Simulation of Longwave Enhancement beneath Montane and Boreal Forests in CLM4.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todt, M.; Rutter, N.; Fletcher, C. G.; Wake, L. M.; Loranty, M. M.

2017-12-01

CMIP5 models have been shown to underestimate both trend and variability in northern hemisphere spring snow cover extent. A substantial fraction of this area is covered by boreal forests, in which the snow energy balance is dominated by radiation. Forest coverage impacts the surface radiation budget by shading the ground and enhancing longwave radiation. Longwave enhancement in boreal forests is a potential mechanism that contributes to uncertainty in snowmelt modelling, however, its impact on snowmelt in global land models has not been analysed yet. This study assesses the simulation of sub-canopy longwave radiation and longwave enhancement by CLM4.5, the land component of the NCAR Community Earth System Model, in which boreal forests are represented by three plant functional types (PFT): evergreen needleleaf trees (ENT), deciduous needleleaf trees (DNT), and deciduous broadleaf trees (DBT). Simulation of sub-canopy longwave enhancement is evaluated at boreal forest sites covering the three boreal PFT in CLM4.5 to assess the dependence of simulation errors on meteorological forcing, vegetation type and vegetation density. ENT are evaluated over a total of six snowmelt seasons in Swiss alpine and subalpine forests, as well as a single season at a Finnish arctic site with varying vegetation density. A Swedish artic site features varying vegetation density for DBT for a single winter, and two sites in Eastern Siberia are included covering a total of four snowmelt seasons in DNT forests. CLM4.5 overestimates the diurnal range of sub-canopy longwave radiation and consequently longwave enhancement, overestimating daytime values and underestimating nighttime values. Simulation errors result mainly from clear sky conditions, due to high absorption of shortwave radiation during daytime and radiative cooling during nighttime. Using recent improvements to the canopy parameterisations of SNOWPACK as a guideline, CLM4.5 simulations of sub-canopy longwave radiation improved through the implementation of a heat mass parameterisation, i.e. including thermal inertia due to biomass. However, this improvement does not substantially reduce the amplitude of the diurnal cycle, a result also found during the development of SNOWPACK.

Vegetation-induced warming of high-latitude regions during the Late Cretaceous period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Upchurch, Garland R.

1997-02-01

Modelling studies of pre-Quaternary (>2 million years ago) climate implicate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1, land elevation2 and land-sea distribution3-5 as important factors influencing global climate change over geological timescales. But during times of global warmth, such as the Cretaceous period and Eocene epoch, there are large discrepancies between model simulations of high-latitude and continental-interior temperatures and those indicated by palaeotemperature records6,7. Here we use a global climate model for the latest Cretaceous (66 million years ago) to examine the role played by high- and middle-latitude forests in surface temperature regulation. In our simulations, this forest vegetation warms the global climate by 2.2 °C. The low-albedo deciduous forests cause high-latitude land areas to warm, which then transfer more heat to adjacent oceans, thus delaying sea-ice formation and increasing winter temperatures over coastal land. Overall, the inclusion of some of the physical and physiological climate feedback effects of high-latitude forest vegetation in our simulations reduces the existing discrepancies between observed and modelled climates of the latest Cretaceous, suggesting that these forests may have made an important contribution to climate regulation during periods of global warmth.

Simulation of ICESat-2 canopy height retrievals for different ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuenschwander, A. L.

2016-12-01

Slated for launch in late 2017 (or early 2018), the ICESat-2 satellite will provide a global distribution of geodetic measurements from a space-based laser altimeter of both the terrain surface and relative canopy heights which will provide a significant benefit to society through a variety of applications ranging from improved global digital terrain models to producing distribution of above ground vegetation structure. The ATLAS instrument designed for ICESat-2, will utilize a different technology than what is found on most laser mapping systems. The photon counting technology of the ATLAS instrument onboard ICESat-2 will record the arrival time associated with a single photon detection. That detection can occur anywhere within the vertical distribution of the reflected signal, that is, anywhere within the vertical distribution of the canopy. This uncertainty of where the photon will be returned from within the vegetation layer is referred to as the vertical sampling error. Preliminary simulation studies to estimate vertical sampling error have been conducted for several ecosystems including woodland savanna, montane conifers, temperate hardwoods, tropical forest, and boreal forest. The results from these simulations indicate that the canopy heights reported on the ATL08 data product will underestimate the top canopy height in the range of 1 - 4 m. Although simulation results indicate the ICESat-2 will underestimate top canopy height, there is, however, a strong correlation between ICESat-2 heights and relative canopy height metrics (e.g. RH75, RH90). In tropical forest, simulation results indicate the ICESat-2 height correlates strongly with RH90. Similarly, in temperate broadleaf forest, the simulated ICESat-2 heights were also strongly correlated with RH90. In boreal forest, the simulated ICESat-2 heights are strongly correlated with RH75 heights. It is hypothesized that the correlations between simulated ICESat-2 heights and canopy height metrics are a function of both canopy cover and vegetation physiology (e.g. leaf size/shape) which contributes to the horizontal and vertical structure of the vegetation.

A framework for evaluating forest restoration alternatives and their outcomes, over time, to inform monitoring: Bioregional inventory originated simulation under management

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Fried; Theresa B. Jain; Sara Loreno; Robert F. Keefe; Conor K. Bell

2017-01-01

The BioSum modeling framework summarizes current and prospective future forest conditions under alternative management regimes along with their costs, revenues and product yields. BioSum translates Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for input to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), summarizes FVS outputs for input to the treatment operations cost model (OpCost...

Climate change effects on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest: a review and synthesis of the scientific literature and simulation model projections

Treesearch

David W. Peterson; Becky K. Kerns; Erich Kyle Dodson

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to review scientifi c knowledge and model projections on vegetation vulnerability to climatic and other environmental changes in the Pacifi c Northwest, with emphasis on fi ve major biome types: subalpine forests and alpine meadows, maritime coniferous forests, dry coniferous forests, savannas and woodlands (oak and juniper), and interior...

Latent heat exchange in the boreal and arctic biomes.

PubMed

Kasurinen, Ville; Alfredsen, Knut; Kolari, Pasi; Mammarella, Ivan; Alekseychik, Pavel; Rinne, Janne; Vesala, Timo; Bernier, Pierre; Boike, Julia; Langer, Moritz; Belelli Marchesini, Luca; van Huissteden, Ko; Dolman, Han; Sachs, Torsten; Ohta, Takeshi; Varlagin, Andrej; Rocha, Adrian; Arain, Altaf; Oechel, Walter; Lund, Magnus; Grelle, Achim; Lindroth, Anders; Black, Andy; Aurela, Mika; Laurila, Tuomas; Lohila, Annalea; Berninger, Frank

2014-11-01

In this study latent heat flux (λE) measurements made at 65 boreal and arctic eddy-covariance (EC) sites were analyses by using the Penman-Monteith equation. Sites were stratified into nine different ecosystem types: harvested and burnt forest areas, pine forests, spruce or fir forests, Douglas-fir forests, broadleaf deciduous forests, larch forests, wetlands, tundra and natural grasslands. The Penman-Monteith equation was calibrated with variable surface resistances against half-hourly eddy-covariance data and clear differences between ecosystem types were observed. Based on the modeled behavior of surface and aerodynamic resistances, surface resistance tightly control λE in most mature forests, while it had less importance in ecosystems having shorter vegetation like young or recently harvested forests, grasslands, wetlands and tundra. The parameters of the Penman-Monteith equation were clearly different for winter and summer conditions, indicating that phenological effects on surface resistance are important. We also compared the simulated λE of different ecosystem types under meteorological conditions at one site. Values of λE varied between 15% and 38% of the net radiation in the simulations with mean ecosystem parameters. In general, the simulations suggest that λE is higher from forested ecosystems than from grasslands, wetlands or tundra-type ecosystems. Forests showed usually a tighter stomatal control of λE as indicated by a pronounced sensitivity of surface resistance to atmospheric vapor pressure deficit. Nevertheless, the surface resistance of forests was lower than for open vegetation types including wetlands. Tundra and wetlands had higher surface resistances, which were less sensitive to vapor pressure deficits. The results indicate that the variation in surface resistance within and between different vegetation types might play a significant role in energy exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere. These results suggest the need to take into account vegetation type and phenology in energy exchange modeling. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulating the impacts of fire: A computer program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ffolliott, Peter F.; Guertin, D. Phillip; Rasmussen, William D.

1988-11-01

Recurrent fire has played a dominant role in the ecology of southwestern ponderosa pine forests. To assess the benefits or losses of fire in these forests, a computer simulation model, called BURN, considers vegetation (mortality, regeneration, and production of herbaceous vegetation), wildlife (populations and habitats), and hydrology (streamflow and water quality). In the formulation of the model, graphical representations (time-trend response curves) of increases or losses (compared to an unburned control) after the occurrence of fire are converted to fixedterm annual ratios, and then annuities for the simulation components. Annuity values higher than 1.0 indicate benefits, while annuity values lower than 1.0 indicate losses. Studies in southwestern ponderosa pine forests utilized in the development of BURN are described briefly.

Landscape analysis software tools

Treesearch

Don Vandendriesche

2008-01-01

Recently, several new computer programs have been developed to assist in landscape analysis. The “Sequential Processing Routine for Arraying Yields” (SPRAY) program was designed to run a group of stands with particular treatment activities to produce vegetation yield profiles for forest planning. SPRAY uses existing Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) software coupled...

Simulating ungulate herbivory across forest landscapes: A browsing extension for LANDIS-II

Treesearch

Nathan R. De Jager; Patrick J. Drohan; Brian M. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Susan L. Stout; Alejandro A. Royo; Eric J. Gustafson; Mark C. Romanski

2017-01-01

Browsing ungulates alter forest productivity and vegetation succession through selective foraging onspecies that often dominate early succession. However, the long-term and large-scale effects of browsing on forest succession are not possible to project without the use of simulation models. To explore the effects of ungulates on succession in a spatially explicit...

The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation dynamic.

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Raymond Drapek; Ronald P. Neilson

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in...

Multi-centennial ecosystem modelling in northeastern America at the species level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinkamp, J.; Biskupovic, A.; Rollinson, C.; Dawson, A.; Goring, S. J.; McLachlan, J. S.; Mladenoff, D. J.; Williams, J.; Hickler, T.

2016-12-01

Most dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) are based on a small set of plant functional types (PFTs) to simulate biome distribution, vegetation dynamics, and carbon and nutrient cycles, which is of limited use for more regional studies and stakeholders. We tested a tree-species-based parameterization approach of the LPJ-GUESS DGVM in the northeastern USA, which previously has been successful in simulating the main potential natural vegetation zones in Europe. A transient model run was carried out from 850 A.D. to today, and the model results have been evaluated against pre-settlement vegetation maps and reconstructed vegetation from pollen within the PalEON project and hypothesized potential natural vegetation zones. We will analyze the simulation with respect to long term carbon cycling and the driving forces. Main reconstructed vegetation features were reproduced by the model, which implies that the general processes shaping the forested vegetation in parts of Europe and the northeastern USA are similar. However, so far the decrease in biomass towards the prairie in the west could not fully be captured by the model, which is currently analyzed with additional simulations. Moisture and fire are the important driver at the prairie forest transition zone, which we need to better constrain for this model domain.

Estimating canopy bulk density and canopy base height for conifer stands in the interior Western United States using the Forest Vegetation Simulator Fire and Fuels Extension.

Treesearch

Seth Ex; Frederick Smith; Tara Keyser; Stephanie Rebain

2017-01-01

The Forest Vegetation Simulator Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE-FVS) is often used to estimate canopy bulk density (CBD) and canopy base height (CBH), which are key indicators of crown fire hazard for conifer stands in the Western United States. Estimated CBD from FFE-FVS is calculated as the maximum 4 m running mean bulk density of predefined 0.3 m thick canopy layers (...

Simulation of long-term landscape-level fuel treatment effects on large wildfires

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Rob C. Seli; Charles W. McHugh; Alan A. Ager; Bernhard Bahro; James K. Agee

2008-01-01

A simulation system was developed to explore how fuel treatments placed in topologically random and optimal spatial patterns affect the growth and behaviour of large fires when implemented at different rates over the course of five decades. The system consisted of a forest and fuel dynamics simulation module (Forest Vegetation Simulator, FVS), logic for deriving fuel...

Simulated Long-term Effects of the MOFEP Cutting Treatments

Treesearch

David R. Larsen

1997-01-01

Changes in average basal area and volume per acre were simulated for a 35-year pertod using the treatments designated for sites 4, 5, and 6 of the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project. A traditional growth and yield model (Central States TWIGS variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator) was used with Landscape Management System Software to simulate and display...

Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2.

Emergence of nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests: hypotheses from simulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvigy, D.; Waring, B. G.; Xu, X.; Trierweiler, A.; Werden, L. K.; Wang, G.; Zhu, Q.; Powers, J. S.

2017-12-01

It is unclear to what extent tropical dry forest productivity may be limited by nutrients. Direct assessment of nutrient limitation through fertilization experiments has been rare, and paradigms pertaining to other ecosystems may not extend to tropical dry forests. For example, because dry tropical forests have a lower water supply than moist tropical forests, dry forests can have lower decomposition rates, higher soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations, and a more open nitrogen cycle than moist forests. We used a mechanistic, numerical model to generate hypotheses about nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests. The model dynamically couples ED2 (vegetation dynamics), MEND (biogeochemistry), and N-COM (plant-microbe competition for nutrients). Here, the MEND-component of the model has been extended to include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. We focus on simulation of sixteen 25m x 25m plots in Costa Rica where a fertilization experiment has been underway since 2015. Baseline simulations are characterized by both nitrogen and phosphorus limitation of vegetation. Fertilization with N and P increased vegetation biomass, with N fertilization having a somewhat stronger effect. Nutrient limitation was also sensitive to climate and was more pronounced during drought periods. Overflow respiration was identified as a key process that mitigated nutrient limitation. These results suggest that, despite often having richer soils than tropical moist forests, tropical dry forests can also become nutrient-limited. If the climate becomes drier in the next century, as is expected for Central America, drier soils may decrease microbial activity and exacerbate nutrient limitation. The importance of overflow respiration underscores the need for appropriate treatment of microbial dynamics in ecosystem models. Ongoing and new nutrient fertilization experiments will present opportunities for testing whether, and how, nutrient limitation may indeed be emerging in tropical dry forests.

Regional impacts of Atlantic Forest deforestation on climate and vegetation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Chambers, J. Q.

2012-12-01

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest was a large and important forest due to its high biodiversity, endemism, range in climate, and complex geography. The original Atlantic Forest was estimated to cover 150 million hectares, spanning large latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevation gradients. This unique environment helped contribute to a diverse assemblage of plants, mammals, birds, and reptiles. Unfortunately, due to land conversion into agriculture, pasture, urban areas, and increased forest fragmentation, only ~8-10% of the original Atlantic Forest remains. Tropical deforestation in the Americas can have considerable effects on local to global climates, and surrounding vegetation growth and survival. This study uses a fully coupled, global climate model (Community Earth System Model, CESM v.1.0.1) to simulate the full removal of the historical Atlantic Forest, and evaluate the regional climatic and vegetation responses due to deforestation. We used the fully coupled atmosphere and land surface components in CESM, and a partially interacting ocean component. The vegetated grid cell portion of the land surface component, the Community Landscape Model (CLM), is divided into 4 of 16 plant functional types (PFTs) with vertical layers of canopy, leaf area index, soil physical properties, and interacting hydrological features all tracking energy, water, and carbon state and flux variables, making CLM highly capable in predicting the complex nature and outcomes of large-scale deforestation. The Atlantic Forest removal (i.e. deforestation) was conducted my converting all woody stem PFTs to grasses in CLM, creating a land-use change from forest to pasture. By comparing the simulated historical Atlantic Forest (pre human alteration) to a deforested Atlantic Forest (close to current conditions) in CLM and CESM we found that live stem carbon, NPP (gC m-2 yr-1), and other vegetation dynamics inside and outside the Atlantic Forest region were largely altered. In addition to vegetation effects, regional surface air temperature (C°), precipitation (mm day-1), and emitted longwave radiation (W m-2) were highly affected in the location of the removed forest, and throughout surrounding areas of South America. For example climate patterns of increased temperature and decreased precipitation were affected as far as the Amazon Forest region. The use of fully coupled global climate and terrestrial models to study the effects of large-scale forest removal have been rarely applied. This study successfully showed the valuation of an important tropical forest, and the consequences of large deforestation through the reporting of complex earth-atmosphere interactions between vegetation dynamics and climate.

The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire.

PubMed

Bond, W J; Woodward, F I; Midgley, G F

2005-02-01

This paper is the first global study of the extent to which fire determines global vegetation patterns by preventing ecosystems from achieving the potential height, biomass and dominant functional types expected under the ambient climate (climate potential). To determine climate potential, we simulated vegetation without fire using a dynamic global-vegetation model. Model results were tested against fire exclusion studies from different parts of the world. Simulated dominant growth forms and tree cover were compared with satellite-derived land- and tree-cover maps. Simulations were generally consistent with results of fire exclusion studies in southern Africa and elsewhere. Comparison of global 'fire off' simulations with landcover and treecover maps show that vast areas of humid C(4) grasslands and savannas, especially in South America and Africa, have the climate potential to form forests. These are the most frequently burnt ecosystems in the world. Without fire, closed forests would double from 27% to 56% of vegetated grid cells, mostly at the expense of C(4) plants but also of C(3) shrubs and grasses in cooler climates. C(4) grasses began spreading 6-8 Ma, long before human influence on fire regimes. Our results suggest that fire was a major factor in their spread into forested regions, splitting biotas into fire tolerant and intolerant taxa.

Evaluation of methodology for detecting/predicting migration of forest species

Treesearch

Dale S. Solomon; William B. Leak

1996-01-01

Available methods for analyzing migration of forest species are evaluated, including simulation models, remeasured plots, resurveys, pollen/vegetation analysis, and age/distance trends. Simulation models have provided some of the most drastic estimates of species changes due to predicted changes in global climate. However, these models require additional testing...

[The research on bidirectional reflectance computer simulation of forest canopy at pixel scale].

PubMed

Song, Jin-Ling; Wang, Jin-Di; Shuai, Yan-Min; Xiao, Zhi-Qiang

2009-08-01

Computer simulation is based on computer graphics to generate the realistic 3D structure scene of vegetation, and to simulate the canopy regime using radiosity method. In the present paper, the authors expand the computer simulation model to simulate forest canopy bidirectional reflectance at pixel scale. But usually, the trees are complex structures, which are tall and have many branches. So there is almost a need for hundreds of thousands or even millions of facets to built up the realistic structure scene for the forest It is difficult for the radiosity method to compute so many facets. In order to make the radiosity method to simulate the forest scene at pixel scale, in the authors' research, the authors proposed one idea to simplify the structure of forest crowns, and abstract the crowns to ellipsoids. And based on the optical characteristics of the tree component and the characteristics of the internal energy transmission of photon in real crown, the authors valued the optical characteristics of ellipsoid surface facets. In the computer simulation of the forest, with the idea of geometrical optics model, the gap model is considered to get the forest canopy bidirectional reflectance at pixel scale. Comparing the computer simulation results with the GOMS model, and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) multi-angle remote sensing data, the simulation results are in agreement with the GOMS simulation result and MISR BRF. But there are also some problems to be solved. So the authors can conclude that the study has important value for the application of multi-angle remote sensing and the inversion of vegetation canopy structure parameters.

Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene - an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, Anne; Claussen, Martin; Ni, Jian; Cao, Xianyong; Wang, Yongbo; Fischer, Nils; Pfeiffer, Madlene; Jin, Liya; Khon, Vyacheslav; Wagner, Sebastian; Haberkorn, Kerstin; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2017-02-01

The large variety of atmospheric circulation systems affecting the eastern Asian climate is reflected by the complex Asian vegetation distribution. Particularly in the transition zones of these circulation systems, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate-vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change and to obtain an ensemble of potential mid-Holocene biome distributions for eastern Asia, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere-ocean(-vegetation) models. The simulated biome changes are compared with pollen-based biome records for different key regions.In all simulations, substantial biome shifts during the last 6000 years are confined to the high northern latitudes and the monsoon-westerly wind transition zone, but the temporal evolution and amplitude of change strongly depend on the climate forcing. Large parts of the southern tundra are replaced by taiga during the mid-Holocene due to a warmer growing season and the boreal treeline in northern Asia is shifted northward by approx. 4° in the ensemble mean, ranging from 1.5 to 6° in the individual simulations, respectively. This simulated treeline shift is in agreement with pollen-based reconstructions from northern Siberia. The desert fraction in the transition zone is reduced by 21 % during the mid-Holocene compared to pre-industrial due to enhanced precipitation. The desert-steppe margin is shifted westward by 5° (1-9° in the individual simulations). The forest biomes are expanded north-westward by 2°, ranging from 0 to 4° in the single simulations. These results corroborate pollen-based reconstructions indicating an extended forest area in north-central China during the mid-Holocene. According to the model, the forest-to-non-forest and steppe-to-desert changes in the climate transition zones are spatially not uniform and not linear since the mid-Holocene.

Multi-Scale Modeling of Boreal Forest Vegetation Growth Under the Influence of Permafrost and Wildfire Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Shuman, J. K.; Ranson, K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Rogers, B. M.; Goetz, S. J.

2017-12-01

Global temperatures have increased about 0.2°C per decade since 1979, and the high latitudes are warming faster than the rest of the globe. Climate change within Alaska is likely to bring about increased drought and longer fire seasons, as well as increases in the severity and frequency of fires. These changes in disturbance regimes and their associated effects on ecosystem C stocks, including permafrost, may lead to a positive feedback to further climate warming. As of now, it is uncertain how vegetation will respond to ongoing climate change, and the addition of disturbance effects leads to even more complicated and varied scenarios. Through ecological modeling, we have the capacity to examine forest processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales, allowing for the testing of complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and disturbances. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) is an individual tree-based forest model that has been updated for use in interior boreal Alaska, with a new permafrost model and updated fire simulation. These updated submodels allow for feedback between soils, vegetation, and fire severity through fuels tracking and impact of depth of burn on permafrost dynamics. We present these updated submodels as well as calibration and validation of UVAFME to the Yukon River Basin in Alaska, with comparisons to inventory data. We also present initial findings from simulations of potential future forest biomass, structure, and species composition across the Yukon River Basin under expected changes in precipitation, temperature, and disturbances. We predict changing climate and the associated impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in shifts in biomass and species composition across the region, with potential for further feedback to the climate-vegetation-disturbance system. These simulations advance our understanding of the possible futures for the Alaskan boreal forest, which is a valuable part of the global carbon budget.

Assessment of the potential of urban organic carbon dynamics to off-set urban anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottschalk, P.; Churkina, G.; Wattenbach, M.; Cubasch, U.

2010-12-01

The impact of urban systems on current and future global carbon emissions has been a focus of several studies. Many mitigation options in terms of increasing energy efficiency are discussed. However, apart from technical mitigation potential urban systems also have a considerable biogenic potential to mitigate carbon through an optimized management of organic carbon pools of vegetation and soil. Berlin city area comprises almost 50% of areas covered with vegetation or largely covered with vegetation. This potentially offers various areas for carbon mitigation actions. To assess the mitigation potentials our first objective is to estimate how large current vegetation and soil carbon stocks of Berlin are. We use publicly available forest and soil inventories to calculate soil organic carbon of non-pervious areas and forest standing biomass carbon. This research highlights data-gaps and assigns uncertainty ranges to estimated carbon resources. The second objective is to assess the carbon mitigation potential of Berlin’s vegetation and soils using a biogeochemical simulation model. BIOME-BGC simulates carbon-, nitrogen- and water-fluxes of ecosystems mechanistically. First, its applicability for Berlin forests is tested at selected sites. A spatial application gives an estimate of current net carbon fluxes. The application of such a model allows determining the sensitivity of key ecosystem processes (e.g. carbon gains through photosynthesis, carbon losses through decomposition) towards external drivers. This information can then be used to optimise forest management in terms of carbon mitigation. Initial results of Berlin’s current carbon stocks and its spatial distribution and preliminary simulations results will be presented.

Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

2011-01-01

The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr-1 during the last half of the 21st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr-1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr-1 by the end of the 21st century with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO2 concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent, and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition.

Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO 2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

2011-01-01

The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO 2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km 2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr -1 during the last half of the 21 st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21 st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO 2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr -1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr -1 by the end of the 21 st century with the increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO 2 concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent, and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition.

Development of state and transition model assumptions used in National Forest Plan revision

Treesearch

Eric B. Henderson

2008-01-01

State and transition models are being utilized in forest management analysis processes to evaluate assumptions about disturbances and succession. These models assume valid information about seral class successional pathways and timing. The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) was used to evaluate seral class succession assumptions for the Hiawatha National Forest in...

Relating Vegetation Aerodynamic Roughness Length to Interferometric SAR Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saatchi, Sassan; Rodriquez, Ernesto

1998-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of estimating aerodynamic roughness parameter from interferometric SAR (INSAR) measurements. The relation between the interferometric correlation and the rms height of the surface is presented analytically. Model simulations performed over realistic canopy parameters obtained from field measurements in boreal forest environment demonstrate the capability of the INSAR measurements for estimating and mapping surface roughness lengths over forests and/or other vegetation types. The procedure for estimating this parameter over boreal forests using the INSAR data is discussed and the possibility of extending the methodology over tropical forests is examined.

Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenxin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin; Wania, Rita; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf

2013-09-01

One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model-downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961-1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051-2080), a poleward advance of the forest-tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH4, may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux.

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Andrea, M.; Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T. P.

2010-10-01

Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM) produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary - each cell either contains a tree or it is empty - and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM), addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

Ecological Impacts of Revegetation and Management Practices of Ski Slopes in Northern Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kangas, Katja; Tolvanen, Anne; Kälkäjä, Tarja; Siikamäki, Pirkko

2009-09-01

Outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism represent an increasingly intensive form of land use that has considerable impacts on native ecosystems. The aim of this paper is to investigate how revegetation and management of ski runs influence soil nutrients, vegetation characteristics, and the possible invasion of nonnative plant species used in revegetation into native ecosystems. A soil and vegetation survey at ski runs and nearby forests, and a factorial experiment simulating ski run construction and management (factors: soil removal, fertilization, and seed sowing) were conducted at Ruka ski resort, in northern Finland, during 2003-2008. According to the survey, management practices had caused considerable changes in the vegetation structure and increased soil nutrient concentrations, pH, and conductivity on the ski runs relative to nearby forests. Seed mixture species sown during the revegetation of ski runs had not spread to adjacent forests. The experimental study showed that the germination of seed mixture species was favored by treatments simulating the management of ski runs, but none of them could eventually establish in the study forest. As nutrient leaching causes both environmental deterioration and changes in vegetation structure, it may eventually pose a greater environmental risk than the spread of seed mixture species alone. Machine grading and fertilization, which have the most drastic effects on soils and vegetation, should, therefore, be minimized when constructing and managing ski runs.

Ecological impacts of revegetation and management practices of ski slopes in northern Finland.

PubMed

Kangas, Katja; Tolvanen, Anne; Kälkäjä, Tarja; Siikamäki, Pirkko

2009-09-01

Outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism represent an increasingly intensive form of land use that has considerable impacts on native ecosystems. The aim of this paper is to investigate how revegetation and management of ski runs influence soil nutrients, vegetation characteristics, and the possible invasion of nonnative plant species used in revegetation into native ecosystems. A soil and vegetation survey at ski runs and nearby forests, and a factorial experiment simulating ski run construction and management (factors: soil removal, fertilization, and seed sowing) were conducted at Ruka ski resort, in northern Finland, during 2003-2008. According to the survey, management practices had caused considerable changes in the vegetation structure and increased soil nutrient concentrations, pH, and conductivity on the ski runs relative to nearby forests. Seed mixture species sown during the revegetation of ski runs had not spread to adjacent forests. The experimental study showed that the germination of seed mixture species was favored by treatments simulating the management of ski runs, but none of them could eventually establish in the study forest. As nutrient leaching causes both environmental deterioration and changes in vegetation structure, it may eventually pose a greater environmental risk than the spread of seed mixture species alone. Machine grading and fertilization, which have the most drastic effects on soils and vegetation, should, therefore, be minimized when constructing and managing ski runs.

Large Scale Anthropogenic Reduction of Forest Cover in Last Glacial Maximum Europe

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, Mirjam; Kolen, Jan C. A.; Davis, Basil A. S.

2016-01-01

Reconstructions of the vegetation of Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are an enigma. Pollen-based analyses have suggested that Europe was largely covered by steppe and tundra, and forests persisted only in small refugia. Climate-vegetation model simulations on the other hand have consistently suggested that broad areas of Europe would have been suitable for forest, even in the depths of the last glaciation. Here we reconcile models with data by demonstrating that the highly mobile groups of hunter-gatherers that inhabited Europe at the LGM could have substantially reduced forest cover through the ignition of wildfires. Similar to hunter-gatherers of the more recent past, Upper Paleolithic humans were masters of the use of fire, and preferred inhabiting semi-open landscapes to facilitate foraging, hunting and travel. Incorporating human agency into a dynamic vegetation-fire model and simulating forest cover shows that even small increases in wildfire frequency over natural background levels resulted in large changes in the forested area of Europe, in part because trees were already stressed by low atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the cold, dry, and highly variable climate. Our results suggest that the impact of humans on the glacial landscape of Europe may be one of the earliest large-scale anthropogenic modifications of the earth system. PMID:27902716

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D.A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

2003-01-01

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Effects of Land Use Change on Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in the Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, D.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2005-12-01

Human activities have affected the exchange of energy and water between atmosphere and land surface through land use change. Conversion of large regions of pre-settlement forest and grassland to a majority cropland cover in the Great Lakes region has resulted in regional scale changes to hydrologic responses. Understanding the impact of historic land use change is important for management of future resources. Effects of land use change on the water and energy cycle of three Great Lakes states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, are analyzed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) meteorological and soil data as well as pre-settlement and modern vegetation data taken from the USGS Land Use History of North American (LUHNA) were used as model input. Default vegetation input parameters were adjusted for the region based on a review of published studies. Results from a single grid cell vegetation sensitivity test show that on an average annual basis, forests transpire more than cropland and cropland more than grassland due to seasonal variations in Leaf Area Index (LAI) and stomatal resistances of vegetations. The hydrologic impact of region wide land use change was then analyzed by comparing simulations using both pre-settlement and current vegetation cover but the same meteorological forcings. Simulated changes resulting from land cover change vary with season and vegetation types. Reduction in forest cover increases water yield by decreasing evapotranspiration. Conversion between forest types resulted only in small differences in evaporation and water fluxes response. The most significant hydrologic changes were located in the southern part of the region where land use change has been primarily forest converted to cropland.

Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: A case study at 6000 years B.P.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kutzbach, J.-E.; Bartlein, P.J.; Foley, J.A.; Harrison, S.P.; Hosteller, S.W.; Liu, Z.; Prentice, I.C.; Webb, T.

1996-01-01

Previous climate model simulations have shown that the configuration of the Earth's orbit during the early to mid-Holocene (approximately 10-5 kyr) can account for the generally warmer-than-present conditions experienced by the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. New simulations for 6 kyr with two atmospheric/mixed-layer ocean models (Community Climate Model, version 1, CCM1, and Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems, version 2, GENESIS 2) are presented here and compared with results from two previous simulations with GENESIS 1 that were obtained with and without the albedo feedback due to climate-induced poleward expansion of the boreal forest. The climate model results are summarized in the form of potential vegetation maps obtained with the global BIOME model, which facilitates visual comparisons both among models and with pollen and plant macrofossil data recording shifts of the forest-tundra boundary. A preliminary synthesis shows that the forest limit was shifted 100-200 km north in most sectors. Both CCM1 and GENESIS 2 produced a shift of this magnitude. GENESIS 1 however produced too small a shift, except when the boreal forest albedo feedback was included. The feedback in this case was estimated to have amplified forest expansion by approximately 50%. The forest limit changes also show meridional patterns (greatest expansion in central Siberia and little or none in Alaska and Labrador) which have yet to be reproduced by models. Further progress in understanding of the processes involved in the response of climate and vegetation to orbital forcing will require both the deployment of coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean models and the development of more comprehensive observational data sets.

Simulating the onset of spring vegetation growth across the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H; Liu, Yongwen; Janssens, Ivan A; Piao, Shilong

2018-03-01

Changes in the spring onset of vegetation growth in response to climate change can profoundly impact climate-biosphere interactions. Thus, robust simulation of spring onset is essential to accurately predict ecosystem responses and feedback to ongoing climate change. To date, the ability of vegetation phenology models to reproduce spatiotemporal patterns of spring onset at larger scales has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we took advantage of phenology observations via remote sensing to calibrate and evaluated six models, including both one-phase (considering only forcing temperatures) and two-phase (involving forcing, chilling, and photoperiod) models across the Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2012. Overall, we found that the model that integrated the photoperiod effect performed best at capturing spatiotemporal patterns of spring phenology in boreal and temperate forests. By contrast, all of the models performed poorly in simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. These results suggest that the photoperiod plays a role in controlling the onset of growth in most Northern Hemisphere forests, whereas other environmental factors (e.g., precipitation) should be considered when simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. We also found that the one-phase model performed as well as the two-phase models in boreal forests, which implies that the chilling requirement is probably fulfilled across most of the boreal zone. Conversely, two-phase models performed better in temperate forests than the one-phase model, suggesting that photoperiod and chilling play important roles in these temperate forests. Our results highlight the significance of including chilling and photoperiod effects in models of the spring onset of forest growth at large scales, and indicate that the consideration of additional drivers may be required for grasslands. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems in Western Europe using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model: evaluation against eddy covariance data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; François, Louis; Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Minet, Julien; Tychon, Bernard; Heinesch, Bernard; Horemans, Joanna; Deckmyn, Gaby

2015-04-01

Eddy covariance measurements are an essential resource to understand how ecosystem carbon fluxes react in response to climate change, and to help to evaluate and validate the performance of land surface and vegetation models at regional and global scale. In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems simulated by the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) are evaluated and validated by comparison of the model predictions with eddy covariance data. Here carbon fluxes (e.g. net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (RECO)) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated with the CARAIB model are compared with the fluxes measured at several eddy covariance flux tower sites in Belgium and Western Europe, chosen from the FLUXNET global network (http://fluxnet.ornl.gov/). CARAIB is forced either with surface atmospheric variables derived from the global CRU climatology, or with in situ meteorological data. Several tree (e.g. Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies) and grass species (e.g. Poaceae, Asteraceae) are simulated, depending on the species encountered on the studied sites. The aim of our work is to assess the model ability to reproduce the daily, seasonal and interannual variablility of carbon fluxes and the carbon dynamics of forest and grassland ecosystems in Belgium and Western Europe.

Plant landscape design simulating natural community by using AHP method based on TWINSPAN classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li Han

2018-06-01

Taking the forest vegetation in Zijin Mountain (Purple Mountain) Area of Nanjing as the research object, based on the simulation natural and semi natural plant communities, the systematic research on the construction of Nanjing regional plant landscape is carried out by the method such as literature and theory, investigation and evaluation, discussion and reference. On the basis of TWINSPAN classification, the species composition (flora and geographical composition), community structure, species diversity, interspecific relationship and ecological niche of Zijin Mountain natural vegetation are studied and analyzed as a basis for simulation design and planting. Then, from the three levels of ornamental value, resource development and utilization potential and biological characteristics, a comprehensive evaluation system used for wild ornamental plant resources in Zijin Mountain is built. Finally, some suggestions on the planting species of deep forest vegetation in Zijin Mountain are put forward.

Back to the future: assessing accuracy and sensitivity of a forest growth model

Treesearch

Susan Hummel; Paul Meznarich

2014-01-01

The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a widely used computer model that projects forest growth and predicts the effects of disturbances such as fire, insects, harvests, or disease. Land managers often use these projections to decide among silvicultural options and estimate the potential effects of these options on forest conditions. Despite FVS's popularity,...

Using silviculture to influence carbon sequestration in southern Appalachian spruce-fir forests

Treesearch

Patrick T. Moore; R. Justin DeRose; James N. Long; Helga van Miegroet

2012-01-01

Enhancement of forest growth through silvicultural modification of stand density is one strategy for increasing carbon (C) sequestration. Using the Fire and Fuels Extension of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, the effects of even-aged, uneven-aged and no-action management scenarios on C sequestration in a southern Appalachian red spruce-Fraser fir forest were modeled....

Modeling long-term changes in forested landscapes and their relation to the Earth's energy balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shugart, H. H.; Emanuel, W. R.; Solomon, A. M.

1984-01-01

The dynamics of the forested parts of the Earth's surface on time scales from decades to centuries are discussed. A set of computer models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and elsewhere are applied as tools. These models simulate a landscape by duplicating the dynamics of growth, death and birth of each tree living on a 0.10 ha element of the landscape. This spatial unit is generally referred to as a gap in the case of the forest models. The models were tested against and applied to a diverse array of forests and appear to provide a reasonable representation for investigating forest-cover dynamics. Because of the climate linkage, one important test is the reconstruction of paleo-landscapes. Detailed reconstructions of changes in vegetation in response to changes in climate are crucial to understanding the association of the Earth's vegetation and climate and the response of the vegetation to climate change.

Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: a process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Robert M. Scheller; Brian R. Miranda; Douglas Shinneman; Alexandra Syphard

2009-01-01

Fire regimes result from reciprocal interactions between vegetation and fire that may be further affected by other disturbances, including climate, landform, and terrain. In this paper, we describe fire and fuel extensions for the forest landscape simulation model, LANDIS-II, that allow dynamic interactions among fire, vegetation, climate, and landscape structure, and...

Mapping vegetation and fuels for fire management on the Gila National Forest Complex, New Mexico

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Scott A. Mincemoyer; Kirsten M. Schmidt; Donald G. Long; Janice L. Garner

2000-01-01

(Please note: This PDF is part of a CD-ROM package only and was not printed on paper.) Fuels and vegetation spatial data layers required by the spatially explicit fire growth model FARSITE were developed for all lands in and around the Gila National Forest in New Mexico. Satellite imagery, terrain modeling, and biophysical simulation were used to create the three...

Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

Treesearch

Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

2010-01-01

We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

Assessment of a model of forest dynamics under contrasting climate and disturbance regimes in the Pacific Northwest [FORCLIM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busing, Richard T.; Solomon, Allen M.

2005-01-01

An individual-based model of forest dynamics (FORCLIM) was tested for its ability to simulate forest composition and structure in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Simulation results across gradients of climate and disturbance were compared to forest survey data from several vegetation zones in western Oregon. Modelled patterns of tree species composition, total basal area and stand height across climate gradients matched those in the forest survey data. However, the density of small stems (<50 cm DBH) was underestimated by the model. Thus actual size-class structure and other density-based parameters of stand structure were not simulated with high accuracy. The addition of partial-stand disturbances at moderate frequencies (<0.01 yr-1) often improved agreement between simulated and actual results. Strengths and weaknesses of the FORCLIM model in simulating forest dynamics and structure in the Pacific Northwest are discussed.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Treesearch

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

Assessing the uncertainty of forest carbon estimates using the FVS family of diameter increment equations

Treesearch

Matthew B. Russell; Aaron R. Weiskittel; Anthony W. D’Amato

2012-01-01

Serving as a carbon (C) accounting tool, the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is widely used by forest managers and researchers to forecast future forest C stocks. Assessments of the uncertainty that FVS equations provide in terms of their ability to accurately project forest biomass and C would seemingly differ, depending on the region and scale of interest to the...

Using Lidar and Radar measurements to constrain predictions of forest ecosystem structure and function.

PubMed

Antonarakis, Alexander S; Saatchi, Sassan S; Chazdon, Robin L; Moorcroft, Paul R

2011-06-01

Insights into vegetation and aboveground biomass dynamics within terrestrial ecosystems have come almost exclusively from ground-based forest inventories that are limited in their spatial extent. Lidar and synthetic-aperture Radar are promising remote-sensing-based techniques for obtaining comprehensive measurements of forest structure at regional to global scales. In this study we investigate how Lidar-derived forest heights and Radar-derived aboveground biomass can be used to constrain the dynamics of the ED2 terrestrial biosphere model. Four-year simulations initialized with Lidar and Radar structure variables were compared against simulations initialized from forest-inventory data and output from a long-term potential-vegtation simulation. Both height and biomass initializations from Lidar and Radar measurements significantly improved the representation of forest structure within the model, eliminating the bias of too many large trees that arose in the potential-vegtation-initialized simulation. The Lidar and Radar initializations decreased the proportion of larger trees estimated by the potential vegetation by approximately 20-30%, matching the forest inventory. This resulted in improved predictions of ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes and structural dynamics compared to predictions from the potential-vegtation simulation. The Radar initialization produced biomass values that were 75% closer to the forest inventory, with Lidar initializations producing canopy height values closest to the forest inventory. Net primary production values for the Radar and Lidar initializations were around 6-8% closer to the forest inventory. Correcting the Lidar and Radar initializations for forest composition resulted in improved biomass and basal-area dynamics as well as leaf-area index. Correcting the Lidar and Radar initializations for forest composition and fine-scale structure by combining the remote-sensing measurements with ground-based inventory data further improved predictions, suggesting that further improvements of structural and carbon-flux metrics will also depend on obtaining reliable estimates of forest composition and accurate representation of the fine-scale vertical and horizontal structure of plant canopies.

FOREST ECOLOGY. Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models.

PubMed

Anderegg, W R L; Schwalm, C; Biondi, F; Camarero, J J; Koch, G; Litvak, M; Ogle, K; Shaw, J D; Shevliakova, E; Williams, A P; Wolf, A; Ziaco, E; Pacala, S

2015-07-31

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of stem growth in trees after severe drought at 1338 forest sites across the globe, comprising 49,339 site-years, and compared the results with simulated recovery in climate-vegetation models. We found pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1 to 4 years after severe drought. Legacy effects were most prevalent in dry ecosystems, among Pinaceae, and among species with low hydraulic safety margins. In contrast, limited or no legacy effects after drought were simulated by current climate-vegetation models. Our results highlight hysteresis in ecosystem-level carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Rendering Future Vegetation Change across Large Regions of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sant'Anna Dias, Felipe; Gu, Yuting; Agarwalla, Yashika; Cheng, Yiwei; Patil, Sopan; Stieglitz, Marc; Turk, Greg

2015-04-01

We use two Machine Learning techniques, Decision Trees (DT) and Neural Networks (NN), to provide classified images and photorealistic renderings of future vegetation cover at three large regions in the US. The training data used to generate current vegetation cover include Landsat surface reflectance images, USGS Land Cover maps, 50 years of mean annual temperature and precipitation for the period 1950 - 2000, elevation, aspect and slope data. Present vegetation cover was generated on a 100m grid. Future vegetation cover for the period 2061- 2080 was predicted using the 1 km resolution bias corrected data from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Climate Model E simulation. The three test regions encompass a wide range of climatic gradients, topographic variation, and vegetation cover. The central Oregon site covers 19,182 square km and includes the Ochoco and Malheur National Forest. Vegetation cover is 50% evergreen forest and 50% shrubs and scrubland. The northwest Washington site covers 14,182 square km. Vegetation cover is 60% evergreen forest, 14% scrubs, 7% grassland, and 7% barren land. The remainder of the area includes deciduous forest, perennial snow cover, and wetlands. The third site, the Jemez mountain region of north central New Mexico, covers 5,500 square km. Vegetation cover is 47% evergreen forest, 31% shrubs, 13% grasses, and 3% deciduous forest. The remainder of the area includes developed and cultivated areas and wetlands. Using the above mentioned data sets we first trained our DT and NN models to reproduce current vegetation. The land cover classified images were compared directly to the USGS land cover data. The photorealistic generated vegetation images were compared directly to the remotely sensed surface reflectance maps. For all three sites, similarity between generated and observed vegetation cover was quite remarkable. The three trained models were then used to explore what the equilibrium vegetation would look like for the period 2061 - 2080. The predicted mean annual air temperature change for the three sites ranged from + 1.8°C to + 2.3°C. Precipitation for the three sites changed little. In Oregon, this resulted in a 37% shift of forested areas to shrub vegetation. In New Mexico, shrubs and evergreen vegetation increased by 18% and 5%, respectively. Deciduous and grassland vegetation decreased by 90% and 52%, respectively. In Washington, evergreen vegetation cover decreased by 4.5%. Deciduous vegetation increase by 25%. Shrubs and grasslands increased by 15% and 7%, respectively. Perennial snow cover on mountain tops fell by 46%. Beyond rendering a view of future vegetation cover, we also extracted information regarding the relative controls that climate and topography exert over local vegetation. The three most dominant controls are elevation (most dominant), temperature, and precipitation. In summary, we demonstrate a framework for rendering potential future vegetation in a visually realistic way. Moreover, these machine learning techniques provide a computationally fast framework for exploring the effects of climate change over large-areas and at high-spatial resolution that cannot be accomplished through simulation alone.

Addressing spatial scales and new mechanisms in climate impact ecosystem modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulter, B.; Joetzjer, E.; Renwick, K.; Ogunkoya, G.; Emmett, K.

2015-12-01

Climate change impacts on vegetation distributions are typically addressed using either an empirical approach, such as a species distribution model (SDM), or with process-based methods, for example, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Each approach has its own benefits and disadvantages. For example, an SDM is constrained by data and few parameters, but does not include adaptation or acclimation processes or other ecosystem feedbacks that may act to mitigate or enhance climate effects. Alternatively, a DGVM model includes many mechanisms relating plant growth and disturbance to climate, but simulations are costly to perform at high-spatial resolution and there remains large uncertainty on a variety of fundamental physical processes. To address these issues, here, we present two DGVM-based case studies where i) high-resolution (1 km) simulations are being performed for vegetation in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem using a biogeochemical, forest gap model, LPJ-GUESS, and ii) where new mechanisms for simulating tropical tree-mortality are being introduced. High-resolution DGVM model simulations require not only computing and reorganizing code but also a consideration of scaling issues on vegetation dynamics and stochasticity and also on disturbance and migration. New mechanisms for simulating forest mortality must consider hydraulic limitations and carbon reserves and their interactions on source-sink dynamics and in controlling water potentials. Improving DGVM approaches by addressing spatial scale challenges and integrating new approaches for estimating forest mortality will provide new insights more relevant for land management and possibly reduce uncertainty by physical processes more directly comparable to experimental and observational evidence.

Effects of using visualization and animation in presentations to communities about forest succession and fire behavior potential

Treesearch

Jane Kapler Smith; Donald E. Zimmerman; Carol Akerelrea; Garrett O' Keefe

2008-01-01

Natural resource managers use a variety of computer-mediated presentation methods to communicate management practices to the public. We explored the effects of using the Stand Visualization System to visualize and animate predictions from the Forest Vegetation Simulator-Fire and Fuels Extension in presentations explaining forest succession (forest growth and change...

Forest carbon estimation using the Forest Vegetation Simulator: Seven things you need to know

Treesearch

Coeli M. Hoover; Stephanie A. Rebain

2011-01-01

Interest in options for forest-related greenhouse gas mitigation is growing, and so is the need to assess the carbon implications of forest management actions. Generating estimates of key carbon pools can be time consuming and cumbersome, and exploring the carbon consequences of management alternatives is often a complicated task. In response to this, carbon reporting...

Validating the southern variant forest vegetation simulator height predictions on southeastern hardwoods in Kentucky and Tennessee

Treesearch

Bernard R. Parresol; Steven C. Stedman

2004-01-01

The accuracy of forest growth and yield forecasts affects the quality of forest management decisions (Rauscher et al. 2000). Users of growth and yield models want assurance that model outputs are reasonable and mimic local/regional forest structure and composition and accurately reflect the influences of stand dynamics such as competition and disturbance. As such,...

Simulated impacts of mountain pine beetle and wildfire disturbances on forest vegetation composition and carbon stocks in the Southern Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caldwell, Megan K.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Briggs, Jenny S.; Cigan, P.W.; Stitt, Susan

2013-01-01

Forests play an important role in sequestering carbon and offsetting anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, but changing disturbance regimes may compromise the capability of forests to store carbon. In the Southern Rocky Mountains, a recent outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB) has caused levels of tree mortality that are unprecedented in recorded history. To evaluate the long-term impacts of both this insect outbreak and another characteristic disturbance in these forests, high-severity wildfire, we simulated potential changes in species composition and carbon stocks using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). Simulations were completed for 3 scenarios (no disturbance, actual MPB infestation, and modeled wildfire) using field data collected in 2010 at 97 plots in the lodgepole pine-dominated forests of eastern Grand County, Colorado, which were heavily impacted by MPB after 2002. Results of the simulations showed that (1) lodgepole pine remained dominant over time in all scenarios, with basal area recovering to pre-disturbance levels 70–80 yr after disturbance; (2) wildfire caused a greater magnitude of change than did MPB in both patterns of succession and distribution of carbon among biomass pools; (3) levels of standing-live carbon returned to pre-disturbance conditions after 40 vs. 50 yr following MPB vs. wildfire disturbance, respectively, but took 120 vs. 150 yr to converge with conditions in the undisturbed scenario. Lodgepole pine forests appear to be relatively resilient to both of the disturbances we modeled, although changes in climate, future disturbance regimes, and other factors may significantly affect future rates of regeneration and ecosystem response.

Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Jason A.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.

2017-01-01

We present landscape simulation results contrasting effects of changing climates on forest vegetation and fire regimes in Yellowstone National Park, USA, by mid-21st century. We simulated potential changes to fire dynamics and forest characteristics under three future climate projections representing a range of potential future conditions using the FireBGCv2 model. Under the future climate scenarios with moderate warming (>2°C) and moderate increases in precipitation (3–5%), model simulations resulted in 1.2–4.2 times more burned area, decreases in forest cover (10–44%), and reductions in basal area (14–60%). In these same scenarios, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) decreased in basal area (18–41%), while Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) basal area increased (21–58%). Conversely, mild warming (<2°C) coupled with greater increases in precipitation (12–13%) suggested an increase in forest cover and basal area by mid-century, with spruce and subalpine fir increasing in abundance. Overall, we found changes in forest tree species compositions were caused by the climate-mediated changes in fire regime (56–315% increase in annual area burned). Simulated changes in forest composition and fire regime under warming climates portray a landscape that shifts from lodgepole pine to Douglas-fir caused by the interaction between the magnitude and seasonality of future climate changes, by climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, and by tree species response.

The Gypsy Moth Event Monitor for FVS: a tool for forest and pest managers

Treesearch

Kurt W. Gottschalk; Anthony W. Courter

2007-01-01

The Gypsy Moth Event Monitor is a program that simulates the effects of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), within the confines of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). Individual stands are evaluated with a susceptibility index system to determine the vulnerability of the stand to the effects of gypsy moth. A gypsy moth outbreak is scheduled in the...

Landscape anthropogenic disturbance in the Mediterranean ecosystem: is the current landscape sustainable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, Guido; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo; Franciosi, Chiara; Lima, Marco

2013-04-01

Mediterranean landscape during the last centuries has been subject to strong anthropogenic disturbances who shifted natural vegetation cover in a cultural landscape. Most of the natural forest were destroyed in order to allow cultivation and grazing activities. In the last century, fast growing conifer plantations were introduced in order to increase timber production replacing slow growing natural forests. In addition, after the Second World War most of the grazing areas were changed in unmanaged mediterranean conifer forest frequently spread by fires. In the last decades radical socio economic changes lead to a dramatic abandonment of the cultural landscape. One of the most relevant result of these human disturbances, and in particular the replacement of deciduous forests with coniferous forests, has been the increasing in the number of forest fires, mainly human caused. The presence of conifers and shrubs, more prone to fire, triggered a feedback mechanism that makes difficult to return to the stage of potential vegetation causing huge economic, social and environmental damages. The aim of this work is to investigate the sustainability of the current landscape. A future landscape scenario has been simulated considering the natural succession in absence of human intervention assuming the current fire regime will be unaltered. To this end, a new model has been defined, implementing an ecological succession model coupled with a simply Forest Fire Model. The ecological succession model simulates the vegetation dynamics using a rule-based approach discrete in space and time. In this model Plant Functional Types (PFTs) are used to describe the landscape. Wildfires are randomly ignited on the landscape, and their propagation is simulated using a stochastic cellular automata model. The results show that the success of the natural succession toward a potential vegetation cover is prevented by the frequency of fire spreading. The actual landscape is then unsustainable because of the high cost of fire fighting activities. The right path to success consists in development of suitable land use planning and forest management to mitigate the consequences of past anthropogenic disturbances.

Investigation of Techniques for Inventorying Forested Regions. Volume 1: Reflectance Modeling and Empirical Multispectral Analysis of Forest Canopy Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nalepka, R. F. (Principal Investigator); Sadowski, F. G.; Malila, W. A.

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Effects of vegetation density on overall canopy reflectance differed dramatically, depending on spectral band, base material, and vegetation type. For example, reflectance changes caused by variations in vegetation density were hardly apparant for a simulated burned surface in LANDSAT band 5, while large changes occurred in band 7. When increasing densities of tree overstory were placed over understories, intermediate to dense overstories effectively masked the understories and dominated the spectral signatures. Dramatic changes in reflectance occurred for canopies placed on a number of varying topographic positions. Such changes were seen to result in the spectral overlap of some nonforested with densely forested situations.

GAPPARD: a computationally efficient method of approximating gap-scale disturbance in vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Thürig, E.; Lischke, H.

2013-02-01

Models of vegetation dynamics that are designed for application at spatial scales larger than individual forest gaps suffer from several limitations. Typically, either a population average approximation is used that results in unrealistic tree allometry and forest stand structure, or models have a high computational demand because they need to simulate both a series of age-based cohorts and a number of replicate patches to account for stochastic gap-scale disturbances. The detail required by the latter method increases the number of calculations by two to three orders of magnitude compared to the less realistic population average approach. In an effort to increase the efficiency of dynamic vegetation models without sacrificing realism, and to explore patterns of spatial scaling in forests, we developed a new method for simulating stand-replacing disturbances that is both accurate and 10-50x faster than approaches that use replicate patches. The GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) method works by postprocessing the output of deterministic, undisturbed simulations of a cohort-based vegetation model by deriving the distribution of patch ages at any point in time on the basis of a disturbance probability. With this distribution, the expected value of any output variable can be calculated from the output values of the deterministic undisturbed run at the time corresponding to the patch age. To account for temporal changes in model forcing, e.g., as a result of climate change, GAPPARD performs a series of deterministic simulations and interpolates between the results in the postprocessing step. We integrated the GAPPARD method in the forest models LPJ-GUESS and TreeM-LPJ, and evaluated these in a series of simulations along an altitudinal transect of an inner-alpine valley. With GAPPARD applied to LPJ-GUESS results were insignificantly different from the output of the original model LPJ-GUESS using 100 replicate patches, but simulation time was reduced by approximately the factor 10. Our new method is therefore highly suited rapidly approximating LPJ-GUESS results, and provides the opportunity for future studies over large spatial domains, allows easier parameterization of tree species, faster identification of areas of interesting simulation results, and comparisons with large-scale datasets and forest models.

Feasibility of coupled empirical and dynamic modeling to assess climate change and air pollution impacts on temperate forest vegetation of the eastern United States.

PubMed

McDonnell, T C; Reinds, G J; Sullivan, T J; Clark, C M; Bonten, L T C; Mol-Dijkstra, J P; Wamelink, G W W; Dovciak, M

2018-03-01

Changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition caused pronounced changes in soil conditions and habitat suitability for many plant species over the latter half of the previous century. Such changes are expected to continue in the future with anticipated further changing air temperature and precipitation that will likely influence the effects of N deposition. To investigate the potential long-term impacts of atmospheric N deposition on hardwood forest ecosystems in the eastern United States in the context of climate change, application of the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community model VSD+PROPS was explored at three sites in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee. This represents the first application of VSD+PROPS to forest ecosystems in the United States. Climate change and elevated (above mid-19th century) N deposition were simulated to be important factors for determining habitat suitability. Although simulation results suggested that the suitability of these forests to support the continued presence of their characteristic understory plant species might decline by the year 2100, low data availability for building vegetation response models with PROPS resulted in uncertain results at the extremes of simulated N deposition. Future PROPS model development in the United States should focus on inclusion of additional foundational data or alternate candidate predictor variables to reduce these uncertainties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Estimation of regional surface resistance to evapotranspiration from NDVI and thermal-IR AVHRR data. [Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Running, Steven W.

1989-01-01

Infrared surface temperatures from satellite sensors have been used to infer evaporation and soil moisture distribution over large areas. However, surface energy partitioning to latent versus sensible heat changes with surface vegetation cover and water availability. The hypothesis that the relationship between surface temperature and canopy density is sensitivite to seasonal changes in canopy resistance of conifer forests is presently tested. Surface temperature and canopy density were computed for a 20 x 25 km forested region in Montana, from the NOAA/AVHRR for 8 days during the summer of 1985. A forest ecosystem model, FOREST-BGC, simulated canopy resistance for the same period. For all eight days, surface temperatures had high association with canopy density, measured as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, implying that latent heat exchange is the major cause of spatial variations in surface radiant tmeperatures.

Climate-FVS Version 2: Content, users guide, applications, and behavior

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston

2014-01-01

Climate change in the 21st Century is projected to cause widespread changes in forest ecosystems. Climate-FVS is a modification to the Forest Vegetation Simulator designed to take climate change into account when predicting forest dynamics at decadal to century time scales. Individual tree climate viability scores measure the likelihood that the climate at a given...

Simulating stand-level harvest prescriptions across landscapes: LANDIS PRO harvest module design

Treesearch

Jacob S. Fraser; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Wen J. Wang; Frank R. Thompson

2013-01-01

Forest landscape models (FLMs) are an important tool for assessing the long-term cumulative effects of harvest over large spatial extents. However, they have not been commonly used to guide forest management planning and on-the-ground operations. This is largely because FLMs track relatively simplistic vegetation information such as age cohort presence/absence, forest...

Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

2016-05-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

On vegetation mapping in Alaska using LANDSAT imagery with primary concerns for method and purpose in satellite image-based vegetation and land-use mapping and the visual interpretation of imagery in photographic format

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, J. H. (Principal Investigator)

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A simulated color infrared LANDSAT image covering the western Seward Peninsula was used for identifying and mapping vegetation by direct visual examination. The 1:1,083,400 scale print used was prepared by a color additive process using positive transparencies from MSS bands 4, 5, and 7. Seven color classes were recognized. A vegetation map of 3200 sq km area just west of Fairbanks, Alaska was made. Five colors were recognized on the image and identified to vegetation types roughly equivalent to formations in the UNESCO classification: orange - broadleaf deciduous forest; gray - needleleaf evergreen forest; light violet - subarctic alpine tundra vegetation; violet - broadleaf deciduous shrub thicket; and dull violet - bog vegetation.

Forest Aboveground Biomass Mapping and Canopy Cover Estimation from Simulated ICESat-2 Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narine, L.; Popescu, S. C.; Neuenschwander, A. L.

2017-12-01

The assessment of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) can contribute to reducing uncertainties associated with the amount and distribution of terrestrial carbon. With a planned launch date of July 2018, the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) will provide data which will offer the possibility of mapping AGB at global scales. In this study, we develop approaches for utilizing vegetation data that will be delivered in ICESat-2's land-vegetation along track product (ATL08). The specific objectives are to: (1) simulate ICESat-2 photon-counting lidar (PCL) data using airborne lidar data, (2) utilize simulated PCL data to estimate forest canopy cover and AGB and, (3) upscale AGB predictions to create a wall-to-wall AGB map at 30-m spatial resolution. Using existing airborne lidar data for Sam Houston National Forest (SHNF) located in southeastern Texas and known ICESat-2 beam locations, PCL data are simulated from discrete return lidar points. We use multiple linear regression models to relate simulated PCL metrics for 100 m segments along the ICESat-2 ground tracks to AGB from a biomass map developed using airborne lidar data and canopy cover calculated from the same. Random Forest is then used to create an AGB map from predicted estimates and explanatory data consisting of spectral metrics derived from Landsat TM imagery and land cover data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Findings from this study will demonstrate how data that will be acquired by ICESat-2 can be used to estimate forest structure and characterize the spatial distribution of AGB.

Changing Amazon biomass and the role of atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate, and land use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Galbraith, David; Zhang, Ke; Coe, Michael T.; Costa, Marcos H.; Moorcroft, Paul

2016-01-01

The Amazon tropical evergreen forest is an important component of the global carbon budget. Its forest floristic composition, structure, and function are sensitive to changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and land use. In this study biomass and productivity simulated by three dynamic global vegetation models (Integrated Biosphere Simulator, Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model, and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) for the period 1970-2008 are compared with observations from forest plots (Rede Amazónica de Inventarios Forestales). The spatial variability in biomass and productivity simulated by the DGVMs is low in comparison to the field observations in part because of poor representation of the heterogeneity of vegetation traits within the models. We find that over the last four decades the CO2 fertilization effect dominates a long-term increase in simulated biomass in undisturbed Amazonian forests, while land use change in the south and southeastern Amazonia dominates a reduction in Amazon aboveground biomass, of similar magnitude to the CO2 biomass gain. Climate extremes exert a strong effect on the observed biomass on short time scales, but the models are incapable of reproducing the observed impacts of extreme drought on forest biomass. We find that future improvements in the accuracy of DGVM predictions will require improved representation of four key elements: (1) spatially variable plant traits, (2) soil and nutrients mediated processes, (3) extreme event mortality, and (4) sensitivity to climatic variability. Finally, continued long-term observations and ecosystem-scale experiments (e.g. Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiments) are essential for a better understanding of the changing dynamics of tropical forests.

Integration of ground and satellite data to model Mediterranean forest processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiesi, M.; Fibbi, L.; Genesio, L.; Gioli, B.; Magno, R.; Maselli, F.; Moriondo, M.; Vaccari, F. P.

2011-06-01

The current work presents the testing of a modeling strategy that has been recently developed to simulate the gross and net carbon fluxes of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The strategy is based on the use of a NDVI-driven parametric model, C-Fix, and of a biogeochemical model, BIOME-BGC, whose outputs are combined to simulate the behavior of forest ecosystems at different development stages. The performances of the modeling strategy are evaluated in three Italian study sites (San Rossore, Lecceto and Pianosa), where carbon fluxes are being measured through the eddy correlation technique. These sites are characterized by variable Mediterranean climates and are covered by different types of forest vegetation (pine wood, Holm oak forest and Macchia, respectively). The results of the tests indicate that the modeling strategy is generally capable of reproducing monthly GPP and NEE patterns in all three study sites. The highest accuracy is obtained in the most mature, homogenous pine wood of San Rossore, while the worst results are found in the Lecceto forest, where there are the most heterogeneous terrain, soil and vegetation conditions. The main error sources are identified in the inaccurate definition of the model inputs, particularly those regulating the site water budgets, which exert a strong control on forest productivity during the Mediterranean summer dry season. In general, the incorporation of NDVI-derived fAPAR estimates corrects for most of these errors and renders the forest flux simulations more stable and accurate.

Forest management for water: a hydro-ecological modeling exercise of headwater catchments in the mixed-conifer belt of the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saksa, P. C.; Bales, R. C.; Ray, R. L.

2011-12-01

Hydro-ecological modeling provides a cost-effective method for evaluating the effects of vegetation change on water cycling within a catchment. In mountain watersheds, change in forest vegetation not only has direct effects on transpiration rates, but also energy exchanges that influence patterns of snow ablation. In this study, treatment scenarios were implemented using the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to estimate impacts on key elements of the hydrologic cycle affected by forest harvesting - snowpack accumulation, ablation, transpiration, and streamflow. Twelve headwater catchments (0.5 - 2.6 km2, 1460 - 2450m) in the mixed-conifer zone of the central Sierra Nevada, within the Sierra and Tahoe National Forests, were included for analysis. These research sites are part of the Sierra Nevada Adaptive Management Project (SNAMP), located in the headwaters of the American and Merced Rivers, and the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) in the Kings River basin. Two methods of forest harvesting were simulated in the study watersheds: 1) uniform canopy thinning, through reduction of Leaf Area Index (LAI) values and 2) strip-cut treatments, suggested as the best method for retaining snowpack. Results from this study compare the influence of vegetation on water cycle dynamics through the two harvesting treatments, initial vegetation densities, and individual catchment size. Model simulations for pre-treatment snow depth, soil moisture, and streamflow were validated with SNAMP and CZO in-situ measurements. Preliminary results show that a linear reduction of forest canopy reduces transpiration accordingly, but produces a non-linear increase in streamflow. Peak discharges also increased, occurring earlier in the spring and having more pronounced effects in the smaller catchments. Based on these results, harvesting thresholds required for obtaining increases in water yield are evaluated. Investigating the impact of forest management on these elements of the hydrologic cycle is essential in the mountain west, where ecosystem services are provided by the snowpack acting as a natural water reservoir, and streamflow which supplies a significant portion of water for hydropower, agricultural irrigation, and urban areas during the spring melt period.

Effects of soil freezing and thawing on vegetation carbon density in Siberia: A modeling analysis with the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beer, C.; Lucht, W.; Gerten, D.; Thonicke, K.; Schmullius, C.

2007-03-01

The current latitudinal gradient in biomass suggests a climate-driven limitation of biomass in high latitudes. Understanding of the underlying processes, and quantification of their relative importance, is required to assess the potential carbon uptake of the biosphere in response to anticipated warming and related changes in tree growth and forest extent in these regions. We analyze the hydrological effects of thawing and freezing of soil on vegetation carbon density (VCD) in permafrost-dominated regions of Siberia using a process-based biogeochemistry-biogeography model, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM). The analysis is based on spatially explicit simulations of coupled daily thaw depth, site hydrology, vegetation distribution, and carbon fluxes influencing VCD subject to climate, soil texture, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. LPJ represents the observed high spring peak of runoff of large Arctic rivers, and simulates a realistic fire return interval of 100 to 200 years in Siberia. The simulated VCD changeover from taiga to tundra is comparable to inventory-based information. Without the consideration of freeze-thaw processes VCD would be overestimated by a factor of 2 in southern taiga to a factor of 5 in northern forest tundra, mainly because available soil water would be overestimated with major effects on fire occurrence and net primary productivity. This suggests that forest growth in high latitudes is not only limited by temperature, radiation, and nutrient availability but also by the availability of liquid soil water.

Evaluation of climate-related carbon turnover processes in global vegetation models for boreal and temperate forests.

PubMed

Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Ciais, Philippe; Friend, Andrew D; Ito, Akihiko; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Quegan, Shaun; Rademacher, Tim T; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Tum, Markus; Wiltshire, Andy; Carvalhais, Nuno

2017-08-01

Turnover concepts in state-of-the-art global vegetation models (GVMs) account for various processes, but are often highly simplified and may not include an adequate representation of the dominant processes that shape vegetation carbon turnover rates in real forest ecosystems at a large spatial scale. Here, we evaluate vegetation carbon turnover processes in GVMs participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT) using estimates of vegetation carbon turnover rate (k) derived from a combination of remote sensing based products of biomass and net primary production (NPP). We find that current model limitations lead to considerable biases in the simulated biomass and in k (severe underestimations by all models except JeDi and VISIT compared to observation-based average k), likely contributing to underestimation of positive feedbacks of the northern forest carbon balance to climate change caused by changes in forest mortality. A need for improved turnover concepts related to frost damage, drought, and insect outbreaks to better reproduce observation-based spatial patterns in k is identified. As direct frost damage effects on mortality are usually not accounted for in these GVMs, simulated relationships between k and winter length in boreal forests are not consistent between different regions and strongly biased compared to the observation-based relationships. Some models show a response of k to drought in temperate forests as a result of impacts of water availability on NPP, growth efficiency or carbon balance dependent mortality as well as soil or litter moisture effects on leaf turnover or fire. However, further direct drought effects such as carbon starvation (only in HYBRID4) or hydraulic failure are usually not taken into account by the investigated GVMs. While they are considered dominant large-scale mortality agents, mortality mechanisms related to insects and pathogens are not explicitly treated in these models. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Converging Climate Sensitivities of European Forests Between Observed Radial Tree Growth and Vegetation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Zhen; Babst, Flurin; Bellassen, Valentin; Frank, David; Launois, Thomas; Tan, Kun; Ciais, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-01-01

The impacts of climate variability and trends on European forests are unevenly distributed across different bioclimatic zones and species. Extreme climate events are also becoming more frequent and it is unknown how they will affect feed backs of CO2 between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An improved understanding of species differences at the regional scale of the response of forest productivity to climate variation and extremes is thus important for forecasting forest dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the climate sensitivity of above ground net primary production (NPP) simulated by two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM; ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl) against tree ring width (TRW) observations from about1000 sites distributed across Europe. In both the model simulations and the TRW observations, forests in northern Europe and the Alps respond positively to warmer spring and summer temperature, and their overall temperature sensitivity is larger than that of the soil-moisture-limited forests in central Europe and Mediterranean regions. Compared with TRW observations, simulated NPP from ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl appear to be overly sensitive to climatic factors. Our results indicate that the models lack biological processes that control time lags, such as carbohydrate storage and remobilization, that delay the effects of radial growth dynamics to climate. Our study highlights the need for re-evaluating the physiological controls on the climate sensitivity of NPP simulated by DGVMs. In particular, DGVMs could be further enhanced by a more detailed representation of carbon reserves and allocation that control year-to year variation in plant growth.

Estimating Forest Canopy Heights and Aboveground Biomass with Simulated ICESat-2 Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malambo, L.; Narine, L.; Popescu, S. C.; Neuenschwander, A. L.; Sheridan, R.

2016-12-01

The Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) 2 is scheduled for launch in 2017 and one of its overall science objectives will be to measure vegetation heights, which can be used to estimate and monitor aboveground biomass (AGB) over large spatial scales. This study serves to develop a methodology for utilizing vegetation data collected by ICESat-2 that will be on a five-year mission from 2017, for mapping forest canopy heights and estimating aboveground forest biomass (AGB). The specific objectives are to, (1) simulate ICESat-2 photon-counting lidar (PCL) data, (2) utilize simulated PCL data to estimate forest canopy heights and propose a methodology for upscaling PCL height measurements to obtain spatially contiguous coverage and, (3) estimate and map AGB using simulated PCL data. The laser pulse from ICESat-2 will be divided into three pairs of beams spaced approximately 3 km apart, with footprints measuring approximately 14 m in diameter and with 70 cm along-track intervals. Using existing airborne lidar data (ALS) for Sam Houston National Forest (SHNF) and known ICESat-2 beam locations, footprints are generated along beam locations and PCL data are then simulated from discrete return lidar points within each footprint. By applying data processing algorithms, photons are classified into top of canopy points and ground surface elevation points to yield tree canopy height values within each ICESat-2 footprint. AGB is then estimated using simple linear regression that utilizes AGB from a biomass map generated with ALS data for SHNF and simulated PCL height metrics for 100 m segments along ICESat-2 tracks. Two approaches also investigated for upscaling AGB estimates to provide wall-to-wall coverage of AGB are (1) co-kriging and (2) Random Forest. Height and AGB maps, which are the outcomes of this study, will demonstrate how data acquired by ICESat-2 can be used to measure forest parameters and in extension, estimate forest carbon for climate change initiatives.

Mathematic simulation of soil-vegetation condition and land use structure applying basin approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishchenko, Natalia; Shirkin, Leonid; Krasnoshchekov, Alexey

2016-04-01

Ecosystems anthropogenic transformation is basically connected to the changes of land use structure and human impact on soil fertility. The Research objective is to simulate the stationary state of river basins ecosystems. Materials and Methods. Basin approach has been applied in the research. Small rivers basins of the Klyazma river have been chosen as our research objects. They are situated in the central part of the Russian plain. The analysis is carried out applying integrated characteristics of ecosystems functioning and mathematic simulation methods. To design mathematic simulator functional simulation methods and principles on the basis of regression, correlation and factor analysis have been applied in the research. Results. Mathematic simulation resulted in defining possible permanent conditions of "phytocenosis-soil" system in coordinates of phytomass, phytoproductivity, humus percentage in soil. Ecosystem productivity is determined not only by vegetation photosynthesis activity but also by the area ratio of forest and meadow phytocenosis. Local maximums attached to certain phytomass areas and humus content in soil have been defined on the basin phytoproductivity distribution diagram. We explain the local maximum by synergetic effect. It appears with the definite ratio of forest and meadow phytocenosis. In this case, utmost values of phytomass for the whole area are higher than just a sum of utmost values of phytomass for the forest and meadow phytocenosis. Efficient correlation of natural forest and meadow phytocenosis has been defined for the Klyazma river. Conclusion. Mathematic simulation methods assist in forecasting the ecosystem conditions under various changes of land use structure. Nowadays overgrowing of the abandoned agricultural lands is very actual for the Russian Federation. Simulation results demonstrate that natural ratio of forest and meadow phytocenosis for the area will restore during agricultural overgrowing.

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO2 in the late Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forrest, M.; Eronen, J. T.; Utescher, T.; Knorr, G.; Stepanek, C.; Lohmann, G.; Hickler, T.

2015-12-01

There is an increasing need to understand the pre-Quaternary warm climates, how climate-vegetation interactions functioned in the past, and how we can use this information to understand the present. Here we report vegetation modelling results for the Late Miocene (11-7 Ma) to study the mechanisms of vegetation dynamics and the role of different forcing factors that influence the spatial patterns of vegetation coverage. One of the key uncertainties is the atmospheric concentration of CO2 during past climates. Estimates for the last 20 million years range from 280 to 500 ppm. We simulated Late Miocene vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations, 280 ppm CO2 and 450 ppm CO2, with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) driven by climate input from a coupled AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model). The simulated vegetation was compared to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. For the comparison we developed a novel approach that uses information of the relative dominance of different plant functional types (PFTs) in the palaeobotanical data to provide a quantitative estimate of the agreement between the simulated and reconstructed vegetation. Based on this quantitative assessment we find that pre-industrial CO2 levels are largely consistent with the presence of seasonal temperate forests in Europe (suggested by fossil data) and open vegetation in North America (suggested by multiple lines of evidence). This suggests that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.

Reimplementation of the Biome-BGC model to simulate successional change.

PubMed

Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Gower, Stith T; Ahl, Douglas E; Thornton, Peter E

2005-04-01

Biogeochemical process models are increasingly employed to simulate current and future forest dynamics, but most simulate only a single canopy type. This limitation means that mixed stands, canopy succession and understory dynamics cannot be modeled, severe handicaps in many forests. The goals of this study were to develop a version of Biome-BGC that supported multiple, interacting vegetation types, and to assess its performance and limitations by comparing modeled results to published data from a 150-year boreal black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) chronosequence in northern Manitoba, Canada. Model data structures and logic were modified to support an arbitrary number of interacting vegetation types; an explicit height calculation was necessary to prioritize radiation and precipitation interception. Two vegetation types, evergreen needle-leaf and deciduous broadleaf, were modeled based on site-specific meteorological and physiological data. The new version of Biome-BGC reliably simulated observed changes in leaf area, net primary production and carbon stocks, and should be useful for modeling the dynamics of mixed-species stands and ecological succession. We discuss the strengths and limitations of Biome-BGC for this application, and note areas in which further work is necessary for reliable simulation of boreal biogeochemical cycling at a landscape scale.

Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Manabu; Takata, Kumiko; Kawamiya, Michio; Watanabe, Shingo

2017-09-01

The Earth system model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth system model (MIROC-ESM), in which the leaf area index (LAI) is calculated interactively with an ecological land model, simulated future changes in the snow water equivalent under the scenario of global warming. Using MIROC-ESM, the effects of the snow albedo feedback (SAF) in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia were examined under the possible climate future scenario RCP8.5. The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) in spring greatly increases across Siberia and the boreal forest region, whereas the snow cover decreases remarkably only in western Eurasia. The large increase in SAT across Siberia is attributed to strong SAF, which is caused by both the reduced snow-covered fraction and the reduced surface albedo of the snow-covered portion due to the vegetation masking effect in those grid cells. A comparison of the future changes with and without interactive LAI changes shows that in Siberia, the vegetation masking effect increases the spring SAF by about two or three times and enhances the spring warming by approximately 1.5 times. This implies that increases in vegetation biomass in the future are a potential contributing factor to warming trends and that further research on the vegetation masking effect is needed for reliable future projection.

GAPPARD: a computationally efficient method of approximating gap-scale disturbance in vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherstjanoi, M.; Kaplan, J. O.; Thürig, E.; Lischke, H.

2013-09-01

Models of vegetation dynamics that are designed for application at spatial scales larger than individual forest gaps suffer from several limitations. Typically, either a population average approximation is used that results in unrealistic tree allometry and forest stand structure, or models have a high computational demand because they need to simulate both a series of age-based cohorts and a number of replicate patches to account for stochastic gap-scale disturbances. The detail required by the latter method increases the number of calculations by two to three orders of magnitude compared to the less realistic population average approach. In an effort to increase the efficiency of dynamic vegetation models without sacrificing realism, we developed a new method for simulating stand-replacing disturbances that is both accurate and faster than approaches that use replicate patches. The GAPPARD (approximating GAP model results with a Probabilistic Approach to account for stand Replacing Disturbances) method works by postprocessing the output of deterministic, undisturbed simulations of a cohort-based vegetation model by deriving the distribution of patch ages at any point in time on the basis of a disturbance probability. With this distribution, the expected value of any output variable can be calculated from the output values of the deterministic undisturbed run at the time corresponding to the patch age. To account for temporal changes in model forcing (e.g., as a result of climate change), GAPPARD performs a series of deterministic simulations and interpolates between the results in the postprocessing step. We integrated the GAPPARD method in the vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, and evaluated it in a series of simulations along an altitudinal transect of an inner-Alpine valley. We obtained results very similar to the output of the original LPJ-GUESS model that uses 100 replicate patches, but simulation time was reduced by approximately the factor 10. Our new method is therefore highly suited for rapidly approximating LPJ-GUESS results, and provides the opportunity for future studies over large spatial domains, allows easier parameterization of tree species, faster identification of areas of interesting simulation results, and comparisons with large-scale datasets and results of other forest models.

An evaluation of three growth and yield simulators for even-aged hardwood forests of the mid-Appalachian region

Treesearch

John R. Brooks; Gary W. Miller

2011-01-01

Data from even-aged hardwood stands in four ecoregions across the mid-Appalachian region were used to test projection accuracy for three available growth and yield software systems: SILVAH, the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and the Stand Damage Model. Average root mean squared error (RMSE) ranged from 20 to 140 percent of actual trees per acre while RMSE ranged from 2...

Use of FVS for a forest-wide inventory on the Spokane Indian Reservation

Treesearch

Ted Hensold

2008-01-01

The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) was used with Continuous Forest Inventory (CFI) data on the Spokane Indian Reservation to provide predicted yields over a 100-year period for 994 1/5 acre plots. The plots were grouped into five strata based on habitat type groupings, projected separately, and the stratum results were combined after processing. Results from the...

Using the Forest Vegetation Simulator to reconstruct historical stand conditions in the Colorado Front Range

Treesearch

Paula J. Fornwalt; Merrill R. Kaufmann; Laurie S. Huckaby; Jason M. Stoker

2002-01-01

Presettlement ponderosa pine/Douglas-fir forests of the Colorado Front Range were open and heterogeneous. Logging, grazing, and fire suppression over past 100 to150 years have altered stand structure by changing diameter distributions and increasing overstory density. In an effort to guide forest restoration toward presettlement conditions, we are currently using the...

A comparison of carbon stock estimates and projections for the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Richard G. MacLean; Mark J. Ducey; Coeli M. Hoover

2014-01-01

We conducted a comparison of carbon stock estimates produced by three different methods using regional data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). Two methods incorporated by the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were compared to each other and to the current FIA component ratio method. We also examined the uncalibrated performance of FVS...

Modeling the impacts of hemlock woolly adelgid infestation and presalvage harvesting on carbon stocks in northern hemlock forests

Treesearch

Jeffrey Krebs; Jennifer Pontius; Paul G. Schaberg

2017-01-01

To better understand the potential impact of the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae Annand) and presalvage activities on carbon (C) dynamics in northern stands of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.), we used the Forest Vegetation Simulator and Forest Inventory and Analysis data to model C storage and...

Equivalence of live tree carbon stocks produced by three estimation approaches for forests of the western United States

Treesearch

Coeli M. Hoover; James E. Smith

2017-01-01

The focus on forest carbon estimation accompanying the implementation of increased regulatory and reporting requirements is fostering the development of numerous tools and methods to facilitate carbon estimation. One such well-established mechanism is via the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a growth and yield modeling system used by public and private land managers...

Local calibration of the Forest Vegetation simulator (FVS) using custom inventory data

Treesearch

J. D. Shaw; G. Vacchiano; R. J. DeRose; A. Brough; A. Kusbach; J. N. Long

2006-01-01

Fort Bragg, North Carolina includes over 65,000 acres of longleaf pine forest, which is primary habitat for the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (RCW). Effective management of the RCW depends on effective management of the longleaf pine forest. However, growth and yield models available in the geographic area that includes Fort Bragg over-predict stand growth and...

Forested Communities of the Upper Montane in the Central and Southern Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Donald A. Potter

1998-01-01

Upper montane forests in the central and southern Sierra Nevada of California were classified into 26 plant associations by using information collected from 0.1-acre circular plots. Within this region, the forested environment including the physiographic setting, geology, soils, and vegetation is described in detail. A simulation model is presented for this portion of...

Performance of the Forest Vegetation Simulator in managed white spruce plantations influenced by eastern spruce budworm in northern Minnesota

Treesearch

Matthew B. Russell; Anthony W. D' Amato; Michael A. Albers; Christopher W. Woodall; Klaus J. Puettmann; Michael R. Saunders; Curtis L. VanderSchaaf

2015-01-01

Silvicultural strategies such as thinning may minimize productivity losses from a variety of forest disturbances, including forest insects. This study analyzed the 10-year postthinning response of stands and individual trees in thinned white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) plantations in northern Minnesota, USA, with light to moderate defoliation...

Holocene biome shifts in the East Asian monsoon margin region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, Anne; Claussen, Martin; Ni, Jian; Wang, Yongbo; Cao, Xianyong; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2013-04-01

East Asia is affected by three major atmospheric circulation systems determining the regional climate and vegetation distribution: The moisture advected by the Indian and East Asian monsoon support the growing of forest in large parts of Eastern China. The influence of the monsoon gets weaker further on the continent yielding a transition of forest to steppe and of steppe to desert in Central East Asia (e.g. Inner Mongolia) where the dry westerly winds prevail. Particularly in these transition zones, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change and strong feedbacks are expected in case of climate and vegetation shifts due to large environmental changes (Feng et al., 2006). During mid-Holocene, cyclic variations in the Earth's orbit around the sun led to an enhancement of the Asian monsoon system probably causing strong shifts in the biome distribution. According to reconstructions, the steppe-forest margin moved to the northwest by about 500km (Yu et al., 2000) and the desert area in China and Inner Mongolia was substantially reduced compared to today (Feng et al., 2006). However, in the complex environment of Asia, the locally limited reconstructions may not portray the general vegetation change. To get a systematic overview on the spatial pattern of biome shifts in the Asian monsoon - westerly wind transition zone since mid-Holocene, we use the diagnostic vegetation model BIOME4 and force this model with climate anomalies from different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation models. The main aims of this study are to a) get a consistent ensemble of possible changes in biome distribution since the mid-Holocene b) test the robustness of the simulated vegetation changes and quantify the differences between the models, and c) allow for a better comparison of simulated and reconstructed vegetation changes. Preliminary results confirm the general trend seen in the reconstructions. The simulations reveal an expansion of forest for most models and a substantially reduced desert fraction in the transition zone during mid-Holocene. However, the amplitude of the signal and the trend varies for the different climate models. At mid-Holocene, the desert-steppe margin is located further west by approx. 6° in the ensemble mean ranging from 1° to 10° in the different simulations. The forest biomes extend further north-westward by approx. 2° in the ensemble mean ranging from 0° to 4°. In some simulations, the biome distribution shows a strong variability during the last 6000 years and a strong increase of desert starting 500 years before present. In other simulations the biome distribution stays relatively constant until 4500 years before present, afterwards the desert border gradually moves eastward to its present-day position. References: Feng, Z.-D., An, C.B., and Wang, H.B.: Holocene climatic and environmental changes in the arid and semi-arid areas of China: a review. The Holocene 16(1), 119-130, 2006. Yu, G., Chen, X., Ni, J., Cheddadi, R., Guiot, J., Han, H., Harrison, S.P., Huang, C., Ke, M., Kong, Z., Li, S., Li, W., Liew, P., Liu, G., Liu, J., Liu, Q., Liu, K.-B., Prentice, I.C., Qui, W., Ren, G., Song, C., Sugita, S., Sun, X., Tang, L., Van Campo, E., Xia, Y., Xu, Q., Yan, S., Yang, X., Zhao, J., and Zheng, Z.: Palaeovegetation of China: a pollen date-based synthesis for the mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum. J. Biogeogr., 27, 635-664, 2000.

Changes in Spring Vegetation Activity over Eurasian Boreal Forest Associated with Reduction of Arctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koh, Y.; Jeong, J. H.; Kim, B. M.; Park, T. W.; Jeong, S. J.

2017-12-01

Vegetation activities over the high-latitude in the Northern-Hemisphere are known to be very sensitive to climate change, which can, in turn, affect the entire climate system. This is one of the important feedback effects on global climate change. In this study, we have detected a declining trend of vegetation index in the boreal forest (Taiga) region of Eurasia in early spring from the late 1990s, and confirmed that the cause is closely related to the decrease in winter temperature linked to the Arctic sea ice change. The reduction of Arctic sea ice induces weakening of the Polar vortex around the Arctic, which has a chilling effect throughout Eurasia until the early spring (March) by strengthening the Siberian high in the Eurasian continent. The decrease of vegetation growth is caused by the extreme cold phenomenon directly affecting the growth of the boreal trees. To verify this, we used vegetation-climate coupled models to investigate climate-vegetation sensitivity to sea ice reduction. As a result, when the Arctic sea ice decreased in the model simulation, the vegetation index of the boreal forest, especially needleleaf evergreen trees, decreased as similarly detected by observations.

Projected Impacts of 21st Century Climate Change on Potential Habitat for Vegetation and Forest Types in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Cantin, A.; Conard, S. G.

2015-12-01

Global GCMs have demonstrated profound potential for projections to affect the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progression of potential Russian ecotones and forest-forming species as the climate changes. Large-scale bioclimatic models were developed to predict Russian zonal vegetation (RuBCliM) and forest types (ForCliM) from three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5 degrees C; (2) negative degree-days below 0 C ; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). The presence or absence of continuous permafrost was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period and for the future 2020, 2050 and 2100 simulated by 3 GCMs (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and 3 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Under these climate scenarios, it is projected the zonobiomes will shift far northward to reach equilibrium with the change in climate. Under the warmer and drier projected future climate, about half of Russia would be suitable for the forest-steppe ecotone and grasslands, rather than for forests. Water stress tolerant light-needled taiga would have an increased advantage over water-loving dark-needled taiga. Permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga would remain the dominant forest across permafrost. Increases in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, especially at boundaries between forest ecotones, which can be expected to facilitate a more rapid progression of vegetation towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation to climate change may be facilitated by: assisting migration of forests by seed transfers to establish genotypes that may be more ecologically suited as climate changes; and the introduction of suitable agricultural crops that may be potentially adapted to a warmer climate in the expected steppe and forest-steppe.

Combining Ecosystem Observations, Manipulations and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to Provide New Insights into Community Land Model Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Shuman, J. K.; Ranson, K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Rogers, B. M.; Goetz, S. J.

2016-12-01

Global temperatures have increased about 0.2°C per decade since 1979, and the high latitudes are warming faster than the rest of the globe. Climate change within Alaska is likely to bring about increased drought and longer fire seasons, as well as increases in the severity and frequency of fires. These changes in disturbance regimes and their associated effects on ecosystem C stocks, including permafrost, may lead to a positive feedback to further climate warming. As of now, it is uncertain how vegetation will respond to ongoing climate change, and the addition of disturbance effects leads to even more complicated and varied scenarios. Through ecological modeling, we have the capacity to examine forest processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales, allowing for the testing of complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and disturbances. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) is an individual tree-based forest model that has been updated for use in interior boreal Alaska, with a new permafrost model and updated fire simulation. These updated submodels allow for feedback between soils, vegetation, and fire severity through fuels tracking and impact of depth of burn on permafrost dynamics. We present these updated submodels as well as calibration and validation of UVAFME to the Yukon River Basin in Alaska, with comparisons to inventory data. We also present initial findings from simulations of potential future forest biomass, structure, and species composition across the Yukon River Basin under expected changes in precipitation, temperature, and disturbances. We predict changing climate and the associated impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in shifts in biomass and species composition across the region, with potential for further feedback to the climate-vegetation-disturbance system. These simulations advance our understanding of the possible futures for the Alaskan boreal forest, which is a valuable part of the global carbon budget.

Improving dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulation of western U.S. rangelands vegetation seasonal phenology and productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerns, B. K.; Kim, J. B.; Day, M. A.; Pitts, B.; Drapek, R. J.

2017-12-01

Ecosystem process models are increasingly being used in regional assessments to explore potential changes in future vegetation and NPP due to climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model MAPSS-Century 2 (MC2) as one line of evidence for regional climate change vulnerability assessments for the US Forest Service, focusing our fine tuning model calibration from observational sources related to forest vegetation. However, there is much interest in understanding projected changes for arid rangelands in the western US such as grasslands, shrublands, and woodlands. Rangelands provide many ecosystem service benefits and local rural human community sustainability, habitat for threatened and endangered species, and are threatened by annual grass invasion. Past work suggested MC2 performance related to arid rangeland plant functional types (PFT's) was poor, and the model has difficulty distinguishing annual versus perennial grasslands. Our objectives are to increase the model performance for rangeland simulations and explore the potential for splitting the grass plant functional type into annual and perennial. We used the tri-state Blue Mountain Ecoregion as our study area and maps of potential vegetation from interpolated ground data, the National Land Cover Data Database, and ancillary NPP data derived from the MODIS satellite. MC2 historical simulations for the area overestimated woodland occurrence and underestimated shrubland and grassland PFT's. The spatial location of the rangeland PFT's also often did not align well with observational data. While some disagreement may be due to differences in the respective classification rules, the errors are largely linked to MC2's tree and grass biogeography and physiology algorithms. Presently, only grass and forest productivity measures and carbon stocks are used to distinguish PFT's. MC2 grass and tree productivity simulation is problematic, in particular grass seasonal phenology in relation to seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation. The algorithm also does not accurately translate simulated carbon stocks into the canopy allometry of woodland tree species that dominate the BME, thereby inaccurately shading out the grasses in the understory. We are devising improvements to these shortcomings in the model architecture.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinzman, Larry D.; Bolton, William Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica

This project improves meso-scale hydrologic modeling in the boreal forest by: (1) demonstrating the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of the landscape using small scale datasets for parameterization for both small and large basins; (2) demonstrating that in drier parts of the landscape and as the boreal forest dries with climate change, modeling approaches must consider the sensitivity of simulations to soil hydraulic parameters - such as residual water content - that are usually held constant. Thus, variability / flexibility in residual water content must be considered for accurate simulation of hydrologic processes in the boreal forest; (3) demonstrating thatmore » assessing climate change impacts on boreal forest hydrology through multiple model integration must account for direct effects of climate change (temperature and precipitation), and indirect effects from climate impacts on landscape characteristics (permafrost and vegetation distribution). Simulations demonstrated that climate change will increase runoff, but will increase ET to a greater extent and result in a drying of the landscape; and (4) vegetation plays a significant role in boreal hydrologic processes in permafrost free areas that have deciduous trees. This landscape type results in a decoupling of ET and precipitation, a tight coupling of ET and temperature, low runoff, and overall soil drying.« less

Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project:Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1995-12-01

We compare the simulations of three biogeography models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant Soil System (MAPSS)) and three biogeochemistry models (BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemistry Cycles), CENTURY, and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary conditions of atmospheric CO2 and climate. We also compare the simulations of these models under doubled CO2 and a range of climate scenarios. For contemporary conditions, the biogeography models successfully simulate the geographic distribution of major vegetation types and have similar estimates of area for forests (42 to 46% of the conterminous United States), grasslands (17 to 27%), savannas (15 to 25%), and shrublands (14 to 18%). The biogeochemistry models estimate similar continental-scale net primary production (NPP; 3125 to 3772 × 1012 gC yr-1) and total carbon storage (108 to 118 × 1015 gC) for contemporary conditions. Among the scenarios of doubled CO2 and associated equilibrium climates produced by the three general circulation models (Oregon State University (OSU), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO)), all three biogeography models show both gains and losses of total forest area depending on the scenario (between 38 and 53% of conterminous United States area). The only consistent gains in forest area with all three models (BIOME2, DOLY, and MAPSS) were under the GFDL scenario due to large increases in precipitation. MAPSS lost forest area under UKMO, DOLY under OSU, and BIOME2 under both UKMO and OSU. The variability in forest area estimates occurs because the hydrologic cycles of the biogeography models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. However, in general, the biogeography models produced broadly similar results when incorporating both climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations. For these scenarios, the NPP estimated by the biogeochemistry models increases between 2% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) and 35% (TEM with UKMO climate). Changes in total carbon storage range from losses of 33% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) to gains of 16% (TEM with OSU climate). The CENTURY responses of NPP and carbon storage are positive and intermediate to the responses of BIOME-BGC and TEM. The variability in carbon cycle responses occurs because the hydrologic and nitrogen cycles of the biogeochemistry models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. When the biogeochemistry models are run with the vegetation distributions of the biogeography models, NPP ranges from no response (BIOME-BGC with all three biogeography model vegetations for UKMO climate) to increases of 40% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU climate). The total carbon storage response ranges from a decrease of 39% (BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation for UKMO climate) to an increase of 32% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU and GFDL climates). The UKMO responses of BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation are primarily caused by decreases in forested area and temperature-induced water stress. The OSU and GFDL responses of TEM with MAPSS vegetations are primarily caused by forest expansion and temperature-enhanced nitrogen cycling.

Vegetation/ecosystem modeling and analysis project: Comparing biogeography and biogeochemistry models in a continental-scale study of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and CO2 doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melillo, J. M.; Borchers, J.; Chaney, J.; Fisher, H.; Fox, S.; Haxeltine, A.; Janetos, A.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Kittel, T. G. F.; McGuire, A. D.; McKeown, R.; Neilson, R.; Nemani, R.; Ojima, D. S.; Painter, T.

1995-12-01

We compare the simulations of three biogeography models (BIOME2, Dynamic Global Phytogeography Model (DOLY), and Mapped Atmosphere-Plant Soil System (MAPSS)) and three biogeochemistry models (BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemistry Cycles), CENTURY, and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)) for the conterminous United States under contemporary conditions of atmospheric CO2 and climate. We also compare the simulations of these models under doubled CO2 and a range of climate scenarios. For contemporary conditions, the biogeography models successfully simulate the geographic distribution of major vegetation types and have similar estimates of area for forests (42 to 46% of the conterminous United States), grasslands (17 to 27%), savannas (15 to 25%), and shrublands (14 to 18%). The biogeochemistry models estimate similar continental-scale net primary production (NPP; 3125 to 3772×1012 gCyr-1) and total carbon storage (108 to 118×1015 gC) for contemporary conditions. Among the scenarios of doubled CO2 and associated equilibrium climates produced by the three general circulation models (Oregon State University (OSU), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO)), all three biogeography models show both gains and losses of total forest area depending on the scenario (between 38 and 53% of conterminous United States area). The only consistent gains in forest area with all three models (BIOME2, DOLY, and MAPSS) were under the GFDL scenario due to large increases in precipitation. MAPSS lost forest area under UKMO, DOLY under OSU, and BIOME2 under both UKMO and OSU. The variability in forest area estimates occurs because the hydrologic cycles of the biogeography models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. However, in general, the biogeography models produced broadly similar results when incorporating both climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations. For these scenarios, the NPP estimated by the biogeochemistry models increases between 2% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) and 35% (TEM with UKMO climate). Changes in total carbon storage range from losses of 33% (BIOME-BGC with UKMO climate) to gains of 16% (TEM with OSU climate). The CENTURY responses of NPP and carbon storage are positive and intermediate to the responses of BIOME-BGC and TEM. The variability in carbon cycle responses occurs because the hydrologic and nitrogen cycles of the biogeochemistry models have different sensitivities to increases in temperature and CO2. When the biogeochemistry models are run with the vegetation distributions of the biogeography models, NPP ranges from no response (BIOME-BGC with all three biogeography model vegetations for UKMO climate) to increases of 40% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU climate). The total carbon storage response ranges from a decrease of 39% (BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation for UKMO climate) to an increase of 32% (TEM with MAPSS vegetation for OSU and GFDL climates). The UKMO responses of BIOME-BGC with MAPSS vegetation are primarily caused by decreases in forested area and temperature-induced water stress. The OSU and GFDL responses of TEM with MAPSS vegetations are primarily caused by forest expansion and temperature-enhanced nitrogen cycling.

Extracting Forest Canopy Characteristics from Remote Sensing Imagery: Implications for Sentinel-2 Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholizadeh, Asa; Kopaekova, Veronika; Rogass, Christian; Mielke, Christian; Misurec, Jan

2016-08-01

Systematic quantification and monitoring of forest biophysical and biochemical variables is required to assess the response of ecosystems to climate change. Remote sensing has been introduced as a time and cost- efficient way to carry out large scale monitoring of vegetation parameters. Red-Edge Position (REP) is a hyperspectrally detectable parameter which is sensitive to vegetation Chl. In the current study, REP was modelled for the Norway spruce forest canopy resampled to HyMap and Sentinel-2 spectral resolution as well as calculated from the real HyMap and Sentinel-2 simulated data. Different REP extraction methods (4PLI, PF, LE, 4PLIH and 4PLIS) were assessed. The study showed the way for effective utilization of the forthcoming hyper and superspectral remote sensing sensors from orbit to monitor vegetation attributes.

Vegetation turnover and nitrogen feedback drive temperate forest carbon sequestration in response to elevated CO[2]. A multi-model structural analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, A. P.; Zaehle, S.; Medlyn, B. E.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Asao, S.; Hickler, T.; Lomas, M. R.; Pak, B. C.; Parton, W. J.; Quegan, S.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Wang, Y.; Warlind, D.; Norby, R. J.

2013-12-01

Predicting forest carbon (C) sequestration requires understanding the processes leading to rates of biomass C accrual (net primary productivity; NPP) and loss (turnover). In temperate forest ecosystems, experiments and models have shown that feedback via progressive nitrogen limitation (PNL) is a key driver of NPP responses to elevated CO[2]. In this analysis we show that while still important, PNL may not be as severe a constraint on NPP as indicated by some studies and that the response of turnover to elevated CO[2] could be as important, especially in the near to medium term. Seven terrestrial ecosystem and biosphere models that couple C and N cycles with varying assumptions and complexity were used to simulate responses over 300 years to a step change in CO[2] to 550 ppmv. Simulations were run for the evergreen needleleaf Duke forest and the deciduous broadleaf Oak Ridge forest FACE experiments. Whether or not a model simulated PNL under elevated CO[2] depended on model structure and the timescale of observation. Avoiding PNL depended on mechanisms that reduced ecosystem N losses. The two key assumptions that reduced N losses were whether plant N uptake was based on plant N demand and whether ecosystem N losses (volatisation and leaching) were dependent on the concentration of N in the soil solution. Assumptions on allocation and turnover resulted in very different responses of turnover to elevated CO[2], which had profound implications for C sequestration. For example, at equilibrium CABLE2.0 predicted an increase in vegetation C sequestration despite decreased NPP, while O-CN predicted much less vegetation C sequestration than would be expected from predicted NPP increases alone. Generally elevated CO[2] favoured a shift in C partitioning towards longer lived wood biomass, which increased vegetation turnover and enhanced C sequestration. Enhanced wood partitioning was overlaid by increases or decreases in self-thinning depended on whether self-thinning was simply a function of forest structure, or structure and NPP. Self-thinning assumptions altered equilibrium C sequestration and were extremely important for the immediate transient response and near-term prediction of C sequestration.

Using Forest Inventory and Analysis data to model plant-climate relationships

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Marcus V. Warwell

2007-01-01

Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from 11 Western conterminous States were used to (1) estimate and map the climatic profiles of tree species and (2) explore how to include climate variables in individual tree growth equations used in the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). On the first front, we found the FIA data to be useful as training data in Breiman's...

Evaluating potential fire behavior in lodgepole pine-dominated forests after a mountain pine beetle epidemic in north-central Colorado

Treesearch

Jennifer G. Klutsch; Mike A. Battaglia; Daniel R. West; Sheryl L. Costello; Jose F. Negron

2011-01-01

A mountain pine beetle outbreak in Colorado lodgepole pine forests has altered stand and fuel characteristics that affect potential fire behavior. Using the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator, potential fire behavior was modeled for uninfested and mountain pine beetle-affected plots 7 years after outbreak initiation and 10 and 80% projected...

Southwestern Oregon's Biscuit Fire: An Analysis of Forest Resources, Fire Severity, and Fire Hazard

Treesearch

David L. Azuma; Glenn A. Christensen

2005-01-01

This study compares pre-fire field inventory data (collected from 1993 to 1997) in relation to post-fire mapped fire severity classes and the Fire and Fuels Extension of the Forest Vegetation Simulator growth and yield model measures of fire hazard for the portion of the Siskiyou National Forest in the 2002 Biscuit fire perimeter of southwestern Oregon. Post-fire...

Modeling compensatory responses of ecosystem-scale water fluxes in forests affected by pine and spruce beetle mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, D.; Ewers, B. E.; Peckham, S. D.; Mackay, D. S.; Frank, J. M.; Massman, W. J.; Reed, D. E.

2015-12-01

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) epidemics have led to extensive mortality in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) forests in the Rocky Mountains of the western US. In both of these tree species, mortality results from hydraulic failure within the xylem, due to blue stain fungal infection associated with beetle attack. However, the impacts of these disturbances on ecosystem-scale water fluxes can be complex, owing to their variable and transient nature. In this work, xylem scaling factors that reduced whole-tree conductance were initially incorporated into a forest ecohydrological model (TREES) to simulate the impact of beetle mortality on evapotranspiration (ET) in both pine and spruce forests. For both forests, simulated ET was compared to observed ET fluxes recorded using eddy covariance techniques. Using xylem scaling factors, the model overestimated the impact of beetle mortality, and observed ET fluxes were approximately two-fold higher than model predictions in both forests. The discrepancy between simulated and observed ET following the onset of beetle mortality may be the result of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of plant communities within the foot prints of the eddy covariance towers. Since simulated ET fluxes following beetle mortality in both forests only accounted for approximately 50% of those observed in the field, it is possible that newly established understory vegetation in recently killed tree stands may play a role in stabilizing ecosystem ET fluxes. Here, we further investigate the unaccounted for ET fluxes in the model by breaking it down into multiple cohorts that represent live trees, dying trees, and understory vegetation that establishes following tree mortality.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2018-01-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (−10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems. PMID:29628526

ALM-FATES: Using dynamic vegetation and demography to capture changes in forest carbon cycling and competition at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Riley, W. J.; Bisht, G.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Dietze, M.; Chambers, J. Q.

2017-12-01

The inclusion of dynamic vegetation demography in Earth System Models (ESMs) has been identified as a critical step in moving ESMs towards more realistic representations of plant ecology and the processes that govern climatically important fluxes of carbon, energy, and water. Successful application of dynamic vegetation models, and process-based approaches to simulate plant demography, succession, and response to disturbances without climate envelopes at the global scale is a challenging endeavor. We integrated demographic processes using the Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the newly developed ACME Land Model (ALM). We then use an ALM-FATES globally gridded simulation for the first time to investigate plant functional type (PFT) distributions and dynamic turnover rates. Initial global simulations successfully include six interacting and competing PFTs (ranging from tropical to boreal, evergreen, deciduous, needleleaf and broadleaf); including more PFTs is planned. Global maps of net primary productivity, leaf area index, and total vegetation biomass by ALM-FATES matched patterns and values when compared to CLM4.5-BGC and MODIS estimates. We also present techniques for PFT parameterization based on the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), field based turnover rates, improved PFT groupings based on trait-tradeoffs, and improved representation of multiple canopy positions. Finally, we applied the improved ALM-FATES model at a central Amazon tropical and western U.S. temperate sites and demonstrate improvements in predicted PFT size- and age-structure and regional distribution. Results from the Amazon tropical site investigate the ability and magnitude of a tropical forest to act as a carbon sink by 2100 with a doubling of CO2, while results from the temperate sites investigate the response of forest mortality with increasing droughts.

Using a LIDAR Vegetation Model to Predict UHF SAR Attenuation in Coniferous Forests

PubMed Central

Swanson, Alan; Huang, Shengli; Crabtree, Robert

2009-01-01

Attenuation of radar signals by vegetation can be a problem for target detection and GPS reception, and is an important parameter in models describing vegetation backscatter. Here we first present a model describing the 3D distribution of stem and foliage structure based on small footprint scanning LIDAR data. Secondly we present a model that uses ray-tracing methodology to record detailed interactions between simulated radar beams and vegetation components. These interactions are combined over the SAR aperture and used to predict two-way attenuation of the SAR signal. Accuracy of the model is demonstrated using UHF SAR observations of large trihedral corner reflectors in coniferous forest stands. Our study showed that the model explains between 66% and 81% of the variability in observed attenuation. PMID:22573972

Comparison of FVS projection of oak decline on the Mark Twain National Forest to actual growth and mortality as measured over three FIA inventory cycles

Treesearch

Don Vandendriesche; Linda Haugen

2008-01-01

Oak decline has been recorded on oak forests throughout the Ozark Plateau of Missouri since the 1970s, but severe drought in the late 1990s, combined with the advancing age of the Ozark forests, has intensified the levels of crown dieback and mortality beyond historical levels. The purpose of this project was to determine whether the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS)...

Toward Understanding Dynamics in Shifting Biomes: An Individual Based Modeling Approach to Characterizing Drought and Mortality in Central Western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, A. H.; Foster, A.; Rogers, B. M.; Hogg, T.; Michaelian, M.; Shuman, J. K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Goetz, S. J.

2017-12-01

The Arctic-Boreal zone is known be warming at an accelerated rate relative to other biomes. Persistent warming has already affected the high northern latitudes, altering vegetation productivity, carbon sequestration, and many other ecosystem processes and services. The central-western Canadian boreal forests and aspen parkland are experiencing a decade long drought, and rainfall has been identified as a key factor controlling the location of the boundary between forest and prairie in this region. Shifting biome with related greening and browning trends are readily measureable with remote sensing, but the dynamics that create and result from them are not well understood. In this study, we use the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), an individual-based forest model, to simulate the changes that are occurring across the southern boreal and parkland forests of west-central Canada. We present a parameterization of UVAFME for western central Canadian forests, validated with CIPHA data (Climate Change Impacts on the Productivity and Health of Aspen), and improved mortality. In order to gain a fine-scale understanding of how climate change and specifically drought will continue to affect the forests of this region, we simulated forest conditions following CMIP5 climate scenarios. UVAFME predictions were compared with statistical models and satellite observations of productivity across the landscape. Changes in forest cover, forest type, aboveground biomass, and mortality and recruitment dynamics are presented, highlighting the high vulnerability of this region to vegetation transitions associated with future droughts.

Identification, definition and mapping of terrestrial ecosystems in interior Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, J. H. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A reconstituted, simulated color-infrared print, enlarged to a scale of 1:250,000, was used to make a vegetation map of a 3,110 sq km area just west of Fairbanks, Alaska. Information was traced from the print which comprised the southeastern part of ERTS-1 scene 1033-21011. A 1:1,000,000 scale color-infrared transparency of this scene, obtained from NASA, was used along side the print as an aid in recognizing colors, color intensities and blends, and mosaics of different colors. Color units on the transparency and print were identified according to vegetation types using NASA air photos, U.S. Forest Service air photos, and experience of the investigator. Five more or less pure colors were identified and associated with vegetation types. These colors were designated according to their appearances on the print: (1) orange for forest vegetation dominated by broad-leaved trees: (2) gray for forest vegetation dominated by needle-leaved trees; (3) violet for scrub vegetation; (4) light violet denoting herbaceous tundra vegetation; and (5) dull violet for muskeg vegetation. This study has shown, through close examinations of the NASA transparency, that much more detailed vegetation landscape, or ecosystem maps could be produced, if only spectral signatures could be consistently and reliably recognized and transferred to a map of suitable scale.

Simulating vegetation controls on hurricane-induced shallow landslides with a distributed ecohydrological model

Treesearch

Taehee Hwang; Lawrence E. Band; T. C. Hales; Chelcy F. Miniat; James M. Vose; Paul V. Bolstad; Brian Miles; Katie Price

2015-01-01

The spatial distribution of shallow landslides in steep forested mountains is strongly controlled by aboveground and belowground biomass, including the distribution of root cohesion. While remote sensing of aboveground canopy properties is relatively advanced, estimating the spatial distribution of root cohesion at the forest landscape scale remains challenging. We...

Western root disease model simulation versus plot remeasurement: 11 years of change in stand structure and density induced by Armillaria root disease in Central Oregon

Treesearch

Helen M. Maffei; Gregory M. Filip; Kristen L. Chadwick; Lance David

2008-01-01

The purpose of this analysis was to use long term permanent plots to evaluate the short-term predictive capability of the Western Root Disease Model extension (WRDM) of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) in central Oregon mixed-conifer forests in project planning situations. Measured (1991–2002) structure and density changes on a 100-acre unmanaged area in south-...

Large-Scale Variation in Forest Carbon Turnover Rate and its Relation to Climate - Remote Sensing vs. Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalhais, N.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Forkel, M.; Rademacher, T. T.; Santoro, M.; Tum, M.; Schmullius, C.

2015-12-01

While vegetation productivity is known to be strongly correlated to climate, there is a need for an improved understanding of the underlying processes of vegetation carbon turnover and their importance at a global scale. This shortcoming has been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which we recently have been able to overcome by a biomass dataset covering northern boreal and temperate forests originating from radar remote sensing. Based on state-of-the-art products on biomass and NPP, we are for the first time able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests. The implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current global vegetation models. In contrast to our observation-based findings, investigated models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well to observation-based NPP, simulated vegetation carbon stocks are severely biased compared to our biomass dataset. Current limitations lead to considerable uncertainties in the estimated vegetation carbon turnover, contributing substantially to the forest feedback to climate change. Our results are the basis for improving mortality concepts in global vegetation models and estimating their impact on the land carbon balance.

The pyrogeography of eastern boreal Canada from 1901 to 2012 simulated with the LPJ-LMfire model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaste, Emeline; Girardin, Martin P.; Kaplan, Jed O.; Portier, Jeanne; Bergeron, Yves; Hély, Christelle

2018-03-01

Wildland fires are the main natural disturbance shaping forest structure and composition in eastern boreal Canada. On average, more than 700 000 ha of forest burns annually and causes as much as CAD 2.9 million worth of damage. Although we know that occurrence of fires depends upon the coincidence of favourable conditions for fire ignition, propagation, and fuel availability, the interplay between these three drivers in shaping spatiotemporal patterns of fires in eastern Canada remains to be evaluated. The goal of this study was to reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of fire activity during the last century in eastern Canada's boreal forest as a function of changes in lightning ignition, climate, and vegetation. We addressed this objective using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-LMfire, which we parametrized for four plant functional types (PFTs) that correspond to the prevalent tree genera in eastern boreal Canada (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus). LPJ-LMfire was run with a monthly time step from 1901 to 2012 on a 10 km2 resolution grid covering the boreal forest from Manitoba to Newfoundland. Outputs of LPJ-LMfire were analyzed in terms of fire frequency, net primary productivity (NPP), and aboveground biomass. The predictive skills of LPJ-LMfire were examined by comparing our simulations of annual burn rates and biomass with independent data sets. The simulation adequately reproduced the latitudinal gradient in fire frequency in Manitoba and the longitudinal gradient from Manitoba towards southern Ontario, as well as the temporal patterns present in independent fire histories. However, the simulation led to the underestimation and overestimation of fire frequency at both the northern and southern limits of the boreal forest in Québec. The general pattern of simulated total tree biomass also agreed well with observations, with the notable exception of overestimated biomass at the northern treeline, mainly for PFT Picea. In these northern areas, the predictive ability of LPJ-LMfire is likely being affected by the low density of weather stations, which leads to underestimation of the strength of fire-weather interactions and, therefore, vegetation consumption during extreme fire years. Agreement between the spatiotemporal patterns of fire frequency and the observed data across a vast portion of the study area confirmed that fire therein is strongly ignition limited. A drier climate coupled with an increase in lightning frequency during the second half of the 20th century notably led to an increase in fire activity. Finally, our simulations highlighted the importance of both climate and fire in vegetation: despite an overarching CO2-induced enhancement of NPP in LPJ-LMfire, forest biomass was relatively stable because of the compensatory effects of increasing fire activity.

The Uncertainty of Biomass Estimates from Modeled ICESat-2 Returns Across a Boreal Forest Gradient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montesano, P. M.; Rosette, J.; Sun, G.; North, P.; Nelson, R. F.; Dubayah, R. O.; Ranson, K. J.; Kharuk, V.

2014-01-01

The Forest Light (FLIGHT) radiative transfer model was used to examine the uncertainty of vegetation structure measurements from NASA's planned ICESat-2 photon counting light detection and ranging (LiDAR) instrument across a synthetic Larix forest gradient in the taiga-tundra ecotone. The simulations demonstrate how measurements from the planned spaceborne mission, which differ from those of previous LiDAR systems, may perform across a boreal forest to non-forest structure gradient in globally important ecological region of northern Siberia. We used a modified version of FLIGHT to simulate the acquisition parameters of ICESat-2. Modeled returns were analyzed from collections of sequential footprints along LiDAR tracks (link-scales) of lengths ranging from 20 m-90 m. These link-scales traversed synthetic forest stands that were initialized with parameters drawn from field surveys in Siberian Larix forests. LiDAR returns from vegetation were compiled for 100 simulated LiDAR collections for each 10 Mg · ha(exp -1) interval in the 0-100 Mg · ha(exp -1) above-ground biomass density (AGB) forest gradient. Canopy height metrics were computed and AGB was inferred from empirical models. The root mean square error (RMSE) and RMSE uncertainty associated with the distribution of inferred AGB within each AGB interval across the gradient was examined. Simulation results of the bright daylight and low vegetation reflectivity conditions for collecting photon counting LiDAR with no topographic relief show that 1-2 photons are returned for 79%-88% of LiDAR shots. Signal photons account for approximately 67% of all LiDAR returns, while approximately 50% of shots result in 1 signal photon returned. The proportion of these signal photon returns do not differ significantly (p greater than 0.05) for AGB intervals greater than 20 Mg · ha(exp -1). The 50m link-scale approximates the finest horizontal resolution (length) at which photon counting LiDAR collection provides strong model fits and minimizes forest structure uncertainty in the synthetic Larix stands. At this link-scale AGB greater than 20 Mg · ha(exp -1) has AGB error from 20-50% at the 95% confidence level. These results suggest that the theoretical sensitivity of ICESat-2 photon counting LiDAR measurements alone lack the ability to consistently discern differences in inferred AGB at 10 Mg · ha(exp -1) intervals in sparse forests characteristic of the taiga-tundra ecotone.

Representing anthropogenic gross land use change, wood harvest, and forest age dynamics in a global vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Li, Wei; McGrath, Matthew J.; Chang, Jinfeng; Peng, Shushi

2018-01-01

Land use change (LUC) is among the main anthropogenic disturbances in the global carbon cycle. Here we present the model developments in a global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 for a more realistic representation of LUC processes. First, we included gross land use change (primarily shifting cultivation) and forest wood harvest in addition to net land use change. Second, we included sub-grid evenly aged land cohorts to represent secondary forests and to keep track of the transient stage of agricultural lands since LUC. Combination of these two features allows the simulation of shifting cultivation with a rotation length involving mainly secondary forests instead of primary ones. Furthermore, a set of decision rules regarding the land cohorts to be targeted in different LUC processes have been implemented. Idealized site-scale simulation has been performed for miombo woodlands in southern Africa assuming an annual land turnover rate of 5 % grid cell area between forest and cropland. The result shows that the model can correctly represent forest recovery and cohort aging arising from agricultural abandonment. Such a land turnover process, even though without a net change in land cover, yields carbon emissions largely due to the imbalance between the fast release from forest clearing and the slow uptake from agricultural abandonment. The simulation with sub-grid land cohorts gives lower emissions than without, mainly because the cleared secondary forests have a lower biomass carbon stock than the mature forests that are otherwise cleared when sub-grid land cohorts are not considered. Over the region of southern Africa, the model is able to account for changes in different forest cohort areas along with the historical changes in different LUC activities, including regrowth of old forests when LUC area decreases. Our developments provide possibilities to account for continental or global forest demographic change resulting from past anthropogenic and natural disturbances.

Modeling the Emergent Impacts of Harvesting Acadian Forests over 100+ Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luus, K. A.; Plug, L. J.

2007-12-01

Harvesting strategies and policies for Acadian forest in Nova Scotia, Canada, presently are set using Decision Support Models (DSMs) that aim to maximize the long-term (>100y) value of forests through decisions implemented over short time horizons (5-80 years). However, DSMs typically are aspatial, lack ecological processes and do not treat erosion, so the long-term (>100y) emergent impacts of the prescribed forestry decisions on erosion and vegetation in Acadian forests remain poorly known. To better understand these impacts, we created an equation-based model that simulates the evolution of a ≥4 km2 forest in time steps of 1 y and at a spatial resolution of 3 m2, the footprint of a single mature tree. The model combines 1) ecological processes of recruitment, competition, and mortality; 2) geomorphic processes of hillslope erosion; 3) anthropic processes of tree harvesting, replanting, and road construction under constraints imposed by regulations and cost/benefit ratio. The model uses digital elevation models, parameters (where available), and calibration (where measurements are not available) for conditions presently found in central Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. The model is unique because it 1) deals with the impacts of harvesting on an Acadian forest; and 2) vegetation and erosion are coupled. The model was tested by comparing the species-specific biomass of long-term (40 y) forest plot data to simulated results. At the spatial scale of individual 1 ha plots, model predictions presently account for approximately 50% of observed biomass changes through time, but predictions are hampered by the effects of serendipitous "random" events such as single tree windfall. Harvesting increases the cumulative erosion over 3000 years by 240% when compared to an old growth forest and significantly suppresses the growth of Balsam Fir and Sugar Maple. We discuss further tests of the model, and how it might be used to investigate the long-term sustainability of the recommendations made by DSMs and to better understand the relationship between vegetation, erosion, and forest management strategies.

A modelling approach to estimate carbon emissions from D.R.C. deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najdovski, Nicolas; Poulter, Benjamin; Defourny, Pierre; Moreau, Inès; Maignan, Fabienne; Ciais, Philippe; Verhegghen, Astrid; Kibambe Lubamba, Jean-Paul; Jungers, Quentin; De Weirdt, Marjolein; Verbeeck, Hans; MacBean, Natasha; Peylin, Philippe

2014-05-01

With its 1.8 million squared kilometres, the Congo basin dense forest represents the second largest contiguous forest of the world. These extensive forest ecosystems play a significant role in the regulation of global climate by their potential carbon dioxide emissions and carbon storage. Under a stable climate, the vegetation, assumed to be at the equilibrium, is known to present neutral emissions over a year with seasonal variations. However, modifications in temperatures, precipitations, CO2 atmospheric concentrations have the potential to modify this balance leading to higher or lower biomass storage. In addition, deforestation and forest degradation have played a significant role over the past several decades and are expected to become increasingly important in the future. Here, we quantify the relative effects of deforestation and 21st century climate change on carbon emissions in Congo Basin over the next three decades (2005-2035). Carbon dioxide emissions are estimated using a series of moderate resolution (10 km) vegetation maps merged with spatially explicit deforestation projections and developed to work with a prognostic carbon cycle model. The inversion of the deforestation model allowed hindcast land-use patterns back to 1800 by using land cover change rates based on the HYDE database. Simulations were made over the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) using the ORCHIDEE dynamic global vegetation model with climate forcing from the CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario for the HadGEM2. Two simulations were made, a reference simulation with land cover fixed at 2005 and a land cover change simulation with changing climate and CO2, to quantify the net land cover change emissions and climate emissions directly. Because of the relatively high resolution of the model simulations, the spatial patterns of human-driven carbon losses can be tracked in the context of climate change, providing information for mitigation and vulnerability activities.

Contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venevsky, S.; Wu, C.; Sitch, S.

2017-12-01

Climate is well known as an important determinant of biogeography. Although climate is directly important for vegetation composition in the boreal forests, these ecosystems are strongly sensitive to an indirect effect of climate via fire disturbance. However, the driving balance of fire disturbance and climate on composition is poorly understood. In this study we quantitatively analyzed their individual contributions for the boreal forests of the Heilongjiang province, China and their response to climate change using four warming scenarios (+1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C). This study employs the statistical methods of Redundancy Analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning combined with simulation results from a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, SEVER-DGVM, and remote sensing datasets of global land cover (GLC2000) and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3). Results show that the vegetation distribution for the present day is mainly determined directly by climate (35%) rather than fire (1%-10.9%). However, with a future global warming of 1.5°C, local vegetation composition will be determined by fires rather than climate (36.3% > 29.3%). Above a 1.5°C warming, temperature will be more important than fires in regulating vegetation distribution although other factors like precipitation can also contribute. The spatial pattern in vegetation composition over the region, as evaluated by Moran's Eigenvector Map (MEM), has a significant impact on local vegetation coverage, i.e. composition at any individual location is highly related to that in its neighborhood. It represents the largest contribution to vegetation distribution in all scenarios, but will not change the driving balance between climate and fires. Our results are highly relevant for forest and wildfires' management.

Regional climate and vegetation response to orbital forcing within the mid-Pliocene Warm Period: A study using HadCM3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prescott, C. L.; Dolan, A. M.; Haywood, A. M.; Hunter, S. J.; Tindall, J. C.

2018-02-01

Regional climate and environmental variability in response to orbital forcing during interglacial events within the mid-Piacenzian (Pliocene) Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264-3.025 Ma) has been rarely studied using climate and vegetation models. Here we use climate and vegetation model simulations to predict changes in regional vegetation patterns in response to orbital forcing for four different interglacial events within the mPWP (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) G17, K1, KM3 and KM5c). The efficacy of model-predicted changes in regional vegetation is assessed by reference to selected high temporal resolution palaeobotanical studies that are theoretically capable of discerning vegetation patterns for the selected interglacial stages. Annual mean surface air temperatures for the studied interglacials are between 0.4 °C to 0.7 °C higher than a comparable Pliocene experiment using modern orbital parameters. Increased spring/summer and reduced autumn/winter insolation in the Northern Hemisphere during MIS G17, K1 and KM3 enhances seasonality in surface air temperature. The two most robust and notable regional responses to this in vegetation cover occur in North America and continental Eurasia, where forests are replaced by more open-types of vegetation (grasslands and shrubland). In these regions our model results appear to be inconsistent with local palaeobotanical data. The orbitally driven changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation lead to a 30% annual reduction in available deep soil moisture (2.0 m from surface), a critical parameter for forest growth, and subsequent reduction in the geographical coverage of forest-type vegetation; a phenomenon not seen in comparable simulations of Pliocene climate and vegetation run with a modern orbital configuration. Our results demonstrate the importance of examining model performance under a range of realistic orbital forcing scenarios within any defined time interval (e.g. mPWP). Additional orbitally resolved records of regional vegetation are needed to further examine the validity of model-predicted regional climate and vegetation responses in greater detail.

Application of MC1 to Wind Cave National Park: Lessons from a small-scale study: Chapter 8

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

2015-01-01

MC1 was designed for application to large regions that include a wide range in elevation and topography, thereby encompassing a broad range in climates and vegetation types. The authors applied the dynamic global vegetation model MC1 to Wind Cave National Park (WCNP) in the southern Black Hills of South Dakota, USA, on the ecotone between ponderosa pine forest to the northwest and mixed-grass prairie to the southeast. They calibrated MC1 to simulate adequate fire effects in the warmer southeastern parts of the park to ensure grasslands there, while allowing forests to grow to the northwest, and then simulated future vegetation with climate projections from three GCMs. The results suggest that fire frequency, as affected by climate and/or human intervention, may be more important than the direct effects of climate in determining the distribution of ponderosa pine in the Black Hills region, both historically and in the future.

Vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China.

PubMed

Wan, Ji-Zhong; Wang, Chun-Jing; Qu, Hong; Liu, Ran; Zhang, Zhi-Xiang

2018-04-15

China has large areas of forest vegetation that are critical to biodiversity and carbon storage. It is important to assess vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China because it may change the distributions and species compositions of forest vegetation. Based on the equilibrium assumption of forest communities across different spatial and temporal scales, we used species distribution modelling coupled with endemics-area relationship to assess the vulnerability of 204 forest communities across 16 vegetation types under different climate change scenarios in China. By mapping the vulnerability of forest vegetation to climate change, we determined that 78.9% and 61.8% of forest vegetation should be relatively stable in the low and high concentration scenarios, respectively. There were large vulnerable areas of forest vegetation under anthropogenic climate change in northeastern and southwestern China. The vegetation of subtropical mixed broadleaf evergreen and deciduous forest, cold-temperate and temperate mountains needleleaf forest, and temperate mixed needleleaf and broadleaf deciduous forest types were the most vulnerable under climate change. Furthermore, the vulnerability of forest vegetation may increase due to high greenhouse gas concentrations. Given our estimates of forest vegetation vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, it is critical that we ensure long-term monitoring of forest vegetation responses to future climate change to assess our projections against observations. We need to better integrate projected changes of temperature and precipitation into climate-adaptive conservation strategies for forest vegetation in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inversion of chlorophyll contents by use of hyperspectral CHRIS data based on radiative transfer model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M. C.; Niu, X. F.; Chen, S. B.; Guo, P. J.; Yang, Q.; Wang, Z. J.

2014-03-01

Chlorophyll content, the most important pigment related to photosynthesis, is the key parameter for vegetation growth. The continuous spectrum characteristics of ground objects can be captured through hyperspectral remotely sensed data. In this study, based on the coniferous forest radiative transfer model, chlorophyll contents were inverted by use of hyperspectral CHRIS data in the coniferous forest coverage of Changbai Mountain Area. In addition, the sensitivity of LIBERTY model was analyzed. The experimental results validated that the reflectance simulation of different chlorophyll contents was coincided with that of the field measurement, and hyperspectral vegetation indices applied to the quantitative inversion of chlorophyll contents was feasible and accurate. This study presents a reasonable method of chlorophyll inversion for the coniferous forest, promotes the inversion precision, is of significance in coniferous forest monitoring.

Assessing the expected effects of wildfire on vegetation condition on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA

Treesearch

J. H. Scott; D. J. Helmbrecht; M. P. Thompson

2014-01-01

Characterizing wildfire risk to a fire-adapted ecosystem presents particular challenges due to its broad spatial extent, inherent complexity, and the difficulty in defining wildfire-induced losses and benefits. Our approach couples stochastic wildfire simulation with a vegetation condition assessment framework to estimate the conditional and expected response of...

User's guide to the douglas-fir beetle impact model. Forest Service general technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marsden, M.A.; Eav, B.B.; Thompson, M.K.

1994-09-01

Douglas-fir beetle occurs throughout the range of its principal host, Douglas-fir. At epidemic levels, the beetle causes considerable mortality in large-diameter Douglas-fir trees. Wind storms, drought, fire, and other factors have been reported as precendent conditions for epidemics of Douglas-fir beetle. An impact model has been developed to simulate tree mortality during such epidemics. The model has been linked to the Stand Prognosis Model (Forest Vegetation Simulator). This is a guide for using the model.

STREAM TEMPERATURE SIMULATION OF FORESTED RIPARIAN AREAS: I. WATERSHED-SCALE MODEL DEVELOPMENT

EPA Science Inventory

To simulate stream temperatures on a watershed scale, shading dynamics of topography and riparian vegetation must be computed for estimating the amount of solar radiation that is actually absorbed by water for each stream reach. A series of computational procedures identifying th...

User's guide [Chapter 3

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston; Donald C. E. Robinson; Sarah J. Beukema

2003-01-01

The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) simulates fuel dynamics and potential fire behavior over time, in the context of stand development and management. This chapter presents the model's options, provides annotated examples, describes the outputs, and describes how to use and apply the model.

Purpose and applications [Chapter 1

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston

2003-01-01

The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) simulates fuel dynamics and potential fire behavior over time, in the context of stand development and management. This chapter provides an introduction to the model by illustrating its purpose and chronicling some of the applications it has supported.

Utilizing inventory information to calibrate a landscape simulation model

Treesearch

Steven R. Shifley; Frank R., III Thompson; David R. Larsen; David J. Mladenoff; Eric J. Gustafson

2000-01-01

LANDIS is a spatially explicit model that uses mapped landscape conditions as a starting point and projects the patterns in forest vegetation that will result from alternative harvest practices, alternative fire regimes, and wind events. LANDIS was originally developed for Lake States forests, but it is capable of handling the input, output, bookkeeping, and mapping...

Simulating ungulate herbivory across forest landscapes: A browsing extension for LANDIS-II

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeJager, Nathan R.; Drohan, Patrick J.; Miranda, Brian M.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Stout, Susan L.; Royo, Alejandro; Gustafson, Eric J.; Romanski, Mark C.

2017-01-01

Browsing ungulates alter forest productivity and vegetation succession through selective foraging on species that often dominate early succession. However, the long-term and large-scale effects of browsing on forest succession are not possible to project without the use of simulation models. To explore the effects of ungulates on succession in a spatially explicit manner, we developed a Browse Extension that simulates the effects of browsing ungulates on the growth and survival of plant species cohorts within the LANDIS-II spatially dynamic forest landscape simulation model framework. We demonstrate the capabilities of the new extension and explore the spatial effects of ungulates on forest composition and dynamics using two case studies. The first case study examined the long-term effects of persistently high white-tailed deer browsing rates in the northern hardwood forests of the Allegheny National Forest, USA. In the second case study, we incorporated a dynamic ungulate population model to simulate interactions between the moose population and boreal forest landscape of Isle Royale National Park, USA. In both model applications, browsing reduced total aboveground live biomass and caused shifts in forest composition. Simulations that included effects of browsing resulted in successional patterns that were more similar to those observed in the study regions compared to simulations that did not incorporate browsing effects. Further, model estimates of moose population density and available forage biomass were similar to previously published field estimates at Isle Royale and in other moose-boreal forest systems. Our simulations suggest that neglecting effects of browsing when modeling forest succession in ecosystems known to be influenced by ungulates may result in flawed predictions of aboveground biomass and tree species composition.

A Comparison of Simulated and Field-Derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Canopy Height Values from Four Forest Complexes in the Southeastern USA

EPA Science Inventory

Vegetative leaf area is a critical input to models that simulate human and ecosystem exposure to atmospheric pollutants. Leaf area index (LAI) can be measured in the field or numerically simulated, but all contain some inherent uncertainty that is passed to the exposure assessmen...

LPJ-GUESS Simulated North America Vegetation for 21-0 ka Using the TraCE-21ka Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2016-12-01

Transient climate simulations that span multiple millennia (e.g., TraCE-21ka) have become more common as computing power has increased, allowing climate models to complete long simulations in relatively short periods of time (i.e., months). These climate simulations provide information on the potential rate, variability, and spatial expression of past climate changes. They also can be used as input data for other environmental models to simulate transient changes for different components of paleoenvironmental systems, such as vegetation. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide information on a range of ecological processes, describe the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in species distributions, and identify the potential locations of past species refugia. Paleovegetation simulations also can be used to fill in spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation data (e.g., pollen records from lake sediments) and to test hypotheses of past vegetation change. We used the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation for 21-0 ka from CCSM3, a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The TraCE-21ka simulated temperature, precipitation, and cloud data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of North America. These regridded climate data, along with soil data and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, were used as input to LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate North America vegetation from 21-0 ka. LPJ-GUESS simulates many of the processes controlling the distribution of vegetation (e.g., competition), although some important processes (e.g., dispersal) are not simulated. We evaluate the LPJ-GUESS-simulated vegetation (in the form of plant functional types and biomes) for key time periods and compare the simulated vegetation with observed paleovegetation data, such as data archived in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database. In general, vegetation simulated by LPJ-GUESS reproduces the major North America vegetation patterns (e.g., forest, grassland) with regional areas of disagreement between simulated and observed vegetation. We describe the regions and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of both the simulated climate and simulated vegetation data.

Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: comparing climate model output to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions with emphasis on the region around the tropical Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

2011-06-01

Abrupt climate changes associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) about 18 to 15 thousand years before present (ka BP) strongly affected climate and vegetation patterns not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in tropical regions in the South Atlantic Ocean. We used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era (PI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea surface temperature patterns and enhanced interhemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. It allowed us to investigate the vegetation changes that result from a transition to a drier climate as predicted for northern tropical Africa due to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). We found that a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those plant-functional types (PFTs) in Northern Tropical Africa that are indicative of an increased desertification, and a retreat of broadleaf forests in Western Africa and Northern South America. We used the PFTs generated by the model to calculate mega-biomes to allow for a direct comparison between paleodata and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well to the modern and LGM sites of the BIOME6000 (v.4.2) reconstruction, except that our present-day simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in Southern Europe and our LGM simulation simulated more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The mega-biomes from the HE1 simulation with glacial background climate were in agreement with paleovegetation data from land and ocean proxies in West, Central, and Northern Tropical Africa as well as Northeast South America. However, our model did not agree well with predicted biome distributions in Eastern South America.

The Sensitivity of West African Squall Line Water Budgets to Land Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Baker, R. David; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Famiglietti, James S.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study used a two-dimensional coupled land/atmosphere (cloud-resolving) model to investigate the influence of land cover on the water budgets of squall lines in the Sahel. Study simulations used the same initial sounding and one of three different land covers, a sparsely vegetated semi-desert, a grassy savanna, and a dense evergreen broadleaf forest. All simulations began at midnight and ran for 24 hours to capture a full diurnal cycle. In the morning, the latent heat flux, boundary layer mixing ratio, and moist static energy in the boundary layer exhibited notable variations among the three land covers. The broadleaf forest had the highest latent heat flux, the shallowest, moistest, slowest growing boundary layer, and significantly more moist static energy per unit area than the savanna and semi-desert. Although all simulations produced squall lines by early afternoon, the broadleaf forest had the most intense, longest-lived squall lines with 29% more rainfall than the savanna and 37% more than the semi-desert. The sensitivity of the results to vegetation density, initial sounding humidity, and grid resolution was also assessed. There were greater differences in rainfall among land cover types than among simulations of the same land cover with varying amounts of vegetation. Small changes in humidity were equivalent in effect to large changes in land cover, producing large changes in the condensate and rainfall. Decreasing the humidity had a greater effect on rainfall volume than increasing the humidity. Reducing the grid resolution from 1.5 km to 0.5 km decreased the temperature and humidity of the cold pools and increased the rain volume.

Evaluate dry deposition velocity of the nitrogen oxides using Noah-MP physics ensemble simulations for the Dinghushan Forest, Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi; Chang, Ming; Zhou, Shengzhen; Chen, Weihua; Wang, Xuemei; Liao, Wenhui; Dai, Jianing; Wu, ZhiYong

2017-11-01

There has been a rapid growth of reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition over the world in the past decades. The Pearl River Delta region is one of the areas with high loading of nitrogen deposition. But there are still large uncertainties in the study of dry deposition because of its complex processes of physical chemistry and vegetation physiology. At present, the forest canopy parameterization scheme used in WRF-Chem model is a single-layer "big leaf" model, and the simulation of radiation transmission and energy balance in forest canopy is not detailed and accurate. Noah-MP land surface model (Noah-MP) is based on the Noah land surface model (Noah LSM) and has multiple parametric options to simulate the energy, momentum, and material interactions of the vegetation-soil-atmosphere system. Therefore, to investigate the improvement of the simulation results of WRF-Chem on the nitrogen deposition in forest area after coupled with Noah-MP model and to reduce the influence of meteorological simulation biases on the dry deposition velocity simulation, a dry deposition single-point model coupled by Noah- MP and the WRF-Chem dry deposition module (WDDM) was used to simulate the deposition velocity (Vd). The model was driven by the micro-meteorological observation of the Dinghushan Forest Ecosystem Location Station. And a series of numerical experiments were carried out to identify the key processes influencing the calculation of dry deposition velocity, and the effects of various surface physical and plant physiological processes on dry deposition were discussed. The model captured the observed Vd well, but still underestimated the Vd. The self-defect of Wesely scheme applied by WDDM, and the inaccuracy of built-in parameters in WDDM and input data for Noah-MP (e.g. LAI) were the key factors that cause the underestimation of Vd. Therefore, future work is needed to improve model mechanisms and parameterization.

Aboveground Biomass and Dynamics of Forest Attributes using LiDAR Data and Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

V V L, P. A.

2015-12-01

In recent years, biomass estimation for tropical forests has received much attention because of the fact that regional biomass is considered to be a critical input to climate change. Biomass almost determines the potential carbon emission that could be released to the atmosphere due to deforestation or conservation to non-forest land use. Thus, accurate biomass estimation is necessary for better understating of deforestation impacts on global warming and environmental degradation. In this context, forest stand height inclusion in biomass estimation plays a major role in reducing the uncertainty in the estimation of biomass. The improvement in the accuracy in biomass shall also help in meeting the MRV objectives of REDD+. Along with the precise estimate of biomass, it is also important to emphasize the role of vegetation models that will most likely become an important tool for assessing the effects of climate change on potential vegetation dynamics and terrestrial carbon storage and for managing terrestrial ecosystem sustainability. Remote sensing is an efficient way to estimate forest parameters in large area, especially at regional scale where field data is limited. LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) provides accurate information on the vertical structure of forests. We estimated average tree canopy heights and AGB from GLAS waveform parameters by using a multi-regression linear model in forested area of Madhya Pradesh (area-3,08,245 km2), India. The derived heights from ICESat-GLAS were correlated with field measured tree canopy heights for 60 plots. Results have shown a significant correlation of R2= 74% for top canopy heights and R2= 57% for stand biomass. The total biomass estimation 320.17 Mt and canopy heights are generated by using random forest algorithm. These canopy heights and biomass maps were used in vegetation models to predict the changes biophysical/physiological characteristics of forest according to the changing climate. In our study we have used Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to understand the possible vegetation dynamics in the event of climate change. The vegetation represents a biogeographic regime. Simulations were carried out for 70 years time period. The model produced leaf area index and biomass for each plant functional type and biome for each grid in that region.

DayCent model simulations for estimating soil carbon dynamics and greenhouse gas fluxes from agricultural production systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

DayCent is a biogeochemical model of intermediate complexity used to simulate carbon, nutrient, and greenhouse gas fluxes for crop, grassland, forest, and savanna ecosystems. Model inputs include: soil texture and hydraulic properties, current and historical land use, vegetation cover, daily maximum...

Chapter 4: Variant descriptions

Treesearch

Duncan C. Lutes; Donald C. E. Robinson

2003-01-01

The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) simulates fuel dynamics and potential fire behavior over time, in the context of stand development and management. This report documents differences between geographic variants of the FFE. It is a companion document to the FFE "Model Description" and "User's Guide."...

Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change

PubMed Central

Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Erbrecht, Tim; Heyder, Ursula; Cramer, Wolfgang

2006-01-01

Background Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100. Results The world's land vegetation will be more deciduous than at present, and contain about 125 billion tons of additional carbon. While a recession of the boreal forest is simulated in some areas, along with a general expansion to the north, we do not observe a reported collapse of the central Amazonian rain forest. Rather, a decrease of biomass and a change of vegetation type occurs in its northeastern part. The ability of the terrestrial biosphere to sequester carbon from the atmosphere declines strongly in the second half of the 21st century. Conclusion Climate change will cause widespread shifts in the distribution of major vegetation functional types on all continents by the year 2100. PMID:16930462

Past and Future Climate Change Impacts on Mountain Forests on the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwörer, C.; Fisher, D. M.; Gavin, D. G.; Temperli, C.; Bartlein, P. J.

2015-12-01

Mountain forest composition and distribution is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift to higher elevations with climate change. However, warmer winters will also lead to an upward shift of the snowline and a decrease in snowpack at lower and intermediate elevations. In the mountain ranges of Western North America, snowpack plays an important role in providing additional moisture during the dry summer months. It is therefore unclear if the projected climate change will lead to a rise of subalpine forest due to a longer growing season or a contraction due to drought stress. Since forest succession processes take place over decades and centuries we use LandClim, a dynamic vegetation model, to assess the impact of climate change on mountain forests on the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA). As a reality check we first simulate vegetation dynamics since the last Ice Age and compare model output with paleobotanical data from five natural archives that span the topographic and climatic gradients on the Peninsula. LandClim produces realistic present-day species compositions with respect to elevation and precipitation gradients. Moreover, the simulations of forest dynamics for the last 16,000 years generally agree with the pollen and macrofossil data. We then simulated mountain forests under future climate projections. As a result, our model indicates drastic changes in species composition with a replacement of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) by more drought-resistant species such as subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). On the drier, eastern side of the Peninsula, the model even suggests a lowering of timberline due to insufficient moisture availability in shallow alpine soils. Our results have important implications for ecosystem managers and stress the urgency of climate change mitigation.

Forest canopy growth dynamic modeling based on remote sensing prodcuts and meteorological data in Daxing'anling of Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qiaoli; Song, Jinling; Wang, Jindi; Xiao, Zhiqiang

2014-11-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important biophysical variable for vegetation. Compared with vegetation indexes like NDVI and EVI, LAI is more capable of monitoring forest canopy growth quantitatively. GLASS LAI is a spatially complete and temporally continuous product derived from AVHRR and MODIS reflectance data. In this paper, we present the approach to build dynamic LAI growth models for young and mature Larix gmelinii forest in north Daxing'anling in Inner Mongolia of China using the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) model and Double Logistic (D-L) model respectively, based on the time series extracted from multi-temporal GLASS LAI data. Meanwhile we used the dynamic threshold method to attract the key phenological phases of Larix gmelinii forest from the simulated time series. Then, through the relationship analysis between phenological phases and the meteorological factors, we found that the annual peak LAI and the annual maximum temperature have a good correlation coefficient. The results indicate this forest canopy growth dynamic model to be very effective in predicting forest canopy LAI growth and extracting forest canopy LAI growth dynamic.

Toward Improved Parameterization of a Meso-Scale Hydrologic Model in a Discontinuous Permafrost, Boreal Forest Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2013-12-01

The sub-arctic environment can be characterized as being located in the zone of discontinuous permafrost. Although the distribution of permafrost is site specific, it dominates many of the hydrologic and ecologic responses and functions including vegetation distribution, stream flow, soil moisture, and storage processes. In this region, the boundaries that separate the major ecosystem types (deciduous dominated and coniferous dominated ecosystems) as well as permafrost (permafrost verses non-permafrost) occur over very short spatial scales. One of the goals of this research project is to improve parameterizations of meso-scale hydrologic models in this environment. Using the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed (CPCRW) as the test area, simulations of the headwater catchments of varying permafrost and vegetation distributions were performed. CPCRW, located approximately 50 km northeast of Fairbanks, Alaska, is located within the zone of discontinuous permafrost and the boreal forest ecosystem. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was selected as the hydrologic model. In CPCRW, permafrost and coniferous vegetation is generally found on north facing slopes and valley bottoms. Permafrost free soils and deciduous vegetation is generally found on south facing slopes. In this study, hydrologic simulations using fine scale vegetation and soil parameterizations - based upon slope and aspect analysis at a 50 meter resolution - were conducted. Simulations were also conducted using downscaled vegetation from the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP) (1 km resolution) and soil data sets from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (approximately 9 km resolution). Preliminary simulation results show that soil and vegetation parameterizations based upon fine scale slope/aspect analysis increases the R2 values (0.5 to 0.65 in the high permafrost (53%) basin; 0.43 to 0.56 in the low permafrost (2%) basin) relative to parameterization based on coarse scale data. These results suggest that using fine resolution parameterizations can be used to improve meso-scale hydrological modeling in this region.

Modeling forest disturbance and recovery in secondary subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Van Bloem, S. J.

2015-12-01

Because of human pressures, the need to understand and predict the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests is urgent. Through modifications to the ZELIG vegetation demographic model, including the development of species- and site-specific parameters and internal modifications, the capability to predict forest change within the Guanica State Forest in Puerto Rico can now be accomplished. One objective was to test the capability of this new model (i.e. ZELIG-TROP) to predict successional patterns of secondary forests across a gradient of abandoned fields currently being reclaimed as forests. Model simulations found that abandoned fields that are on degraded lands have a delayed response to fully recover and reach a mature forest status during the simulated time period; 200 years. The forest recovery trends matched predictions published in other studies, such that attributes involving early resource acquisition (i.e. canopy height, canopy coverage, density) were the fastest to recover, but attributes used for structural development (i.e. biomass, basal area) were relatively slow in recovery. Biomass and basal area, two attributes that tend to increase during later successional stages, are significantly lower during the first 80-100 years of recovery compared to a mature forest, suggesting that the time scale of resilience in subtropical dry forests needs to be partially redefined. A second objective was to investigate the long and short-term effects of increasing hurricane disturbances on vegetation structure and dynamics, due to hurricanes playing an important role in maintaining dry forest structure in Puerto Rico. Hurricane disturbance simulations within ZELIG-TROP predicted that increasing hurricane intensity (i.e. up to 100% increase) did not lead to a large shift in long-term AGB or NPP. However, increased hurricane frequency did lead to a 5-40% decrease in AGB, and 32-50% increase in NPP, depending on the treatment. In addition, the modeling approach used here was able to track changes in litterfall, coarse woody debris, and other forest carbon components under various hurricane regimes, a critical step for understanding the future state of subtropical dry forests.

Tropical Tree Trait Diversity Enhances Forest Biomass Resilience in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakschewski, B.; Kirsten, T.; von Bloh, W.; Poorter, L.; Pena-Claros, M.; Boit, A.

2016-12-01

Functional diversity of ecosystems has been found to increase ecosystem functions and therefore enhance ecosystem resilience against environmental stressors. However, global carbon-cycle and biosphere models still classify the global vegetation into a relatively small number of distinct plant functional types (PFT) with constant features over space and time. Therefore, those models might underestimate the resilience and adaptive capacity of natural vegetation under climate change by ignoring positive effects that functional diversity might bring about. We diversified a set a of selected tree traits in a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL). In the new subversion, called LPJmL-FIT, Amazon region biomass stocks and forest structure appear significantly more resilient against climate change. Enhanced tree trait diversity enables the simulated rainforests to adjust to new environmental conditions via ecological sorting. These results may stimulate a new debate on the value of biodiversity for climate change mitigation.

Simulating Various Terrestrial and Uav LIDAR Scanning Configurations for Understory Forest Structure Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hämmerle, M.; Lukač, N.; Chen, K.-C.; Koma, Zs.; Wang, C.-K.; Anders, K.; Höfle, B.

2017-09-01

Information about the 3D structure of understory vegetation is of high relevance in forestry research and management (e.g., for complete biomass estimations). However, it has been hardly investigated systematically with state-of-the-art methods such as static terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) or laser scanning from unmanned aerial vehicle platforms (ULS). A prominent challenge for scanning forests is posed by occlusion, calling for proper TLS scan position or ULS flight line configurations in order to achieve an accurate representation of understory vegetation. The aim of our study is to examine the effect of TLS or ULS scanning strategies on (1) the height of individual understory trees and (2) understory canopy height raster models. We simulate full-waveform TLS and ULS point clouds of a virtual forest plot captured from various combinations of max. 12 TLS scan positions or 3 ULS flight lines. The accuracy of the respective datasets is evaluated with reference values given by the virtually scanned 3D triangle mesh tree models. TLS tree height underestimations range up to 1.84 m (15.30 % of tree height) for single TLS scan positions, but combining three scan positions reduces the underestimation to maximum 0.31 m (2.41 %). Combining ULS flight lines also results in improved tree height representation, with a maximum underestimation of 0.24 m (2.15 %). The presented simulation approach offers a complementary source of information for efficient planning of field campaigns aiming at understory vegetation modelling.

Using forest vegetation simulator to aid communications between natural resource managers and stakeholders

Treesearch

Randall P. Rawls; Edward F. Loewenstein

2006-01-01

Due to differences in perspective, natural resource managers and members of the general public often find it difficult to communicate with each other concerning alternative management scenarios. Natural resource managers often consider and describe the forest in numeric terms such as number of trees, basal area, and volume per acre. Members of the general public are...

Resilience of ponderosa and lodgepole pine forests to mountain pine beetle disturbance and limited regeneration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Jenny S.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Vandendriesche, Don

2015-01-01

After causing widespread mortality in lodgepole pine forests in North America, the mountain pine beetle (MPB) has recently also affected ponderosa pine, an alternate host species that may have different levels of resilience to this disturbance. We collected field data in ponderosa pine- and lodgepole pine-dominated forests attacked by MPB in Colorado and then simulated stand growth over 200 years using the Forest Vegetation Simulator. We compared scenarios of no disturbance with scenarios of MPB-caused mortality, both with and without regeneration. Results indicated that basal area and tree density recovered to predisturbance levels relatively rapidly (within 1‐8 decades) in both forest types. However, convergence of the disturbed conditions with simulated undisturbed conditions took longer (12‐20+ decades) and was delayed by the absence of regeneration. In MPB-affected ponderosa pine forests without regeneration, basal area did not converge with undisturbed conditions within 200 years, implying lower resilience in this ecosystem. Surface fuels accumulated rapidly in both forest types after MPB-induced mortality, remaining high for 3‐6 decades in simulations. Our results suggest that future patterns of succession, regeneration, fuel loading, climate, and disturbance interactions over long time periods should be considered in management strategies addressing MPB effects in either forest type, but particularly in ponderosa pine.

On the use of tower-flux measurements to assess the performance of global ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Maayar, M.; Kucharik, C.

2003-04-01

Global ecosystem models are important tools for the study of biospheric processes and their responses to environmental changes. Such models typically translate knowledge, gained from local observations, into estimates of regional or even global outcomes of ecosystem processes. A typical test of ecosystem models consists of comparing their output against tower-flux measurements of land surface-atmosphere exchange of heat and mass. To perform such tests, models are typically run using detailed information on soil properties (texture, carbon content,...) and vegetation structure observed at the experimental site (e.g., vegetation height, vegetation phenology, leaf photosynthetic characteristics,...). In global simulations, however, earth's vegetation is typically represented by a limited number of plant functional types (PFT; group of plant species that have similar physiological and ecological characteristics). For each PFT (e.g., temperate broadleaf trees, boreal conifer evergreen trees,...), which can cover a very large area, a set of typical physiological and physical parameters are assigned. Thus, a legitimate question arises: How does the performance of a global ecosystem model run using detailed site-specific parameters compare with the performance of a less detailed global version where generic parameters are attributed to a group of vegetation species forming a PFT? To answer this question, we used a multiyear dataset, measured at two forest sites with contrasting environments, to compare seasonal and interannual variability of surface-atmosphere exchange of water and carbon predicted by the Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Two types of simulations were, thus, performed: a) Detailed runs: observed vegetation characteristics (leaf area index, vegetation height,...) and soil carbon content, in addition to climate and soil type, are specified for model run; and b) Generic runs: when only observed climates and soil types at the measurement sites are used to run the model. The generic runs were performed for the number of years equal to the current age of the forests, initialized with no vegetation and a soil carbon density equal to zero.

Water vapour emission in vegetable fuel: absorption cell measurements and detection limits of our CO II Dial system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellecci, C.; De Leo, L.; Gaudio, P.; Gelfusa, M.; Lo Feudo, T.; Martellucci, S.; Richetta, M.

2006-09-01

Forest fires can be the cause of serious environmental and economic damages. For this reason a considerable effort has been directed toward the forest protection and fire fighting. In the early forest fire detection, Lidar technique present considerable advantages compared to the passive detection methods based on infrared cameras currently in common use, due its higher sensitivity and ability to accurately locate the fire. The combustion phase of the vegetable matter causes a great amount of water vapour emission, thus the water molecule behaviour will be studied to obtain a fire detection system ready and efficient also before the flame propagation. A first evaluation of increment of the water vapour concentration compared to standard one will be estimated by a numerical simulation. These results will be compared with the experimental measurements carried out into a cell with a CO II Dial system, burning different kinds of vegetable fuel. Our results and their comparison will be reported in this paper.

Simulating forest landscape disturbances as coupled human and natural systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wimberly, Michael; Sohl, Terry L.; Liu, Zhihua; Lamsal, Aashis

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic disturbances resulting from human land use affect forest landscapes over a range of spatial and temporal scales, with diverse influences on vegetation patterns and dynamics. These processes fall within the scope of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) concept, which has emerged as an important framework for understanding the reciprocal interactions and feedbacks that connect human activities and ecosystem responses. Spatial simulation modeling of forest landscape change is an important technique for exploring the dynamics of CHANS over large areas and long time periods. Landscape models for simulating interactions between human activities and forest landscape dynamics can be grouped into two main categories. Forest landscape models (FLMs) focus on landscapes where forests are the dominant land cover and simulate succession and natural disturbances along with forest management activities. In contrast, land change models (LCMs) simulate mosaics of different land cover and land use classes that include forests in addition to other land uses such as developed areas and agricultural lands. There are also several examples of coupled models that combine elements of FLMs and LCMs. These integrated models are particularly useful for simulating human–natural interactions in landscapes where human settlement and agriculture are expanding into forested areas. Despite important differences in spatial scale and disciplinary scope, FLMs and LCMs have many commonalities in conceptual design and technical implementation that can facilitate continued integration. The ultimate goal will be to implement forest landscape disturbance modeling in a CHANS framework that recognizes the contextual effects of regional land use and other human activities on the forest ecosystem while capturing the reciprocal influences of forests and their disturbances on the broader land use mosaic.

Satellite remote sensing assessment of climate impact on forest vegetation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoran, M.

2009-04-01

Forest vegetation phenology constitutes an efficient bio-indicator of impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes and a key parameter for understanding and modelling vegetation-climate interactions. Climate variability represents the ensemble of net radiation, precipitation, wind and temperature characteristic for a region in a certain time scale (e.g.monthly, seasonal annual). The temporal and/or spatial sensitivity of forest vegetation dynamics to climate variability is used to characterize the quantitative relationship between these two quantities in temporal and/or spatial scales. So, climate variability has a great impact on the forest vegetation dynamics. Satellite remote sensing is a very useful tool to assess the main phenological events based on tracking significant changes on temporal trajectories of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIs), which requires NDVI time-series with good time resolution, over homogeneous area, cloud-free and not affected by atmospheric and geometric effects and variations in sensor characteristics (calibration, spectral responses). Spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics have been quantified as the total amount of vegetation (mean NDVI) and the seasonal difference (annual NDVI amplitude) by a time series analysis of NDVI satellite images with the Harmonic ANalysis of Time Series algorithm. A climate indicator (CI) was created from meteorological data (precipitation over net radiation). The relationships between the vegetation dynamics and the CI have been determined spatially and temporally. The driest test regions prove to be the most sensitive to climate impact. The spatial and temporal patterns of the mean NDVI are the same, while they are partially different for the seasonal difference. The aim of this paper was to quantify this impact over a forest ecosystem placed in the North-Eastern part of Bucharest town, Romania, with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) parameter extracted from IKONOS and LANDSAT TM and ETM satellite images and meteorological data over l995-2007 period. For investigated test area, considerable NDVI decline was observed between 1995 and 2007 due to the drought events during 2003 and 2007 years. Under stress conditions, it is evident that environmental factors such as soil type, parent material, and topography are not correlated with NDVI dynamics. Specific aim of this paper was to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of climatic changes on forest systems and its biodiversity as well as on adjacent environment areas and to provide early warning strategies on the basis of spectral information derived from satellite data regarding atmospheric effects of forest biome degradation . The paper aims to describe observed trends and potential impacts based on scenarios from simulations with regional climate models and other downscaling procedures.

Simulating secondary succession of elk forage values in a managed forest landscape, western Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt J.; Starkey, Edward E.

1996-01-01

Modern timber management practices often influence forage production for elk (Cervus elaphus) on broad temporal and spatial scales in forested landscapes. We incorporated site-specific information on postharvesting forest succession and forage characteristics in a simulation model to evaluate past and future influences of forest management practices on forage values for elk in a commercially managed Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii, PSME)-western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla, TSHE) forest in western Washington. We evaluated future effects of: (1) clear-cut logging 0, 20, and 40% of harvestable stands every five years; (2) thinning 20-year-old Douglas fir forests; and (3) reducing the harvesting cycle from 60 to 45 years. Reconstruction of historical patterns of vegetation succession indicated that forage values peaked in the 1960s and declined from the 1970s to the present, but recent values still were higher than may have existed in the unmanaged landscape in 1945. Increased forest harvesting rates had little short-term influence on forage trends because harvestable stands were scarce. Simulations of forest thinning also produced negligible benefits because thinning did not improve forage productivity appreciably at the stand level. Simulations of reduced harvesting cycles shortened the duration of declining forage values from approximately 30 to 15 years. We concluded that simulation models are useful tools for examining landscape responses of forage production to forest management strategies, but the options examined provided little potential for improving elk forages in the immediate future.

Vegetation carbon sequestration in Chinese forests from 2010 to 2050.

PubMed

He, Nianpeng; Wen, Ding; Zhu, Jianxing; Tang, Xuli; Xu, Li; Zhang, Li; Hu, Huifeng; Huang, Mei; Yu, Guirui

2017-04-01

Forests store a large part of the terrestrial vegetation carbon (C) and have high C sequestration potential. Here, we developed a new forest C sequestration (FCS) model based on the secondary succession theory, to estimate vegetation C sequestration capacity in China's forest vegetation. The model used the field measurement data of 3161 forest plots and three future climate scenarios. The results showed that logistic equations provided a good fit for vegetation biomass with forest age in natural and planted forests. The FCS model has been verified with forest biomass data, and model uncertainty is discussed. The increment of vegetation C storage in China's forest vegetation from 2010 to 2050 was estimated as 13.92 Pg C, while the average vegetation C sequestration rate was 0.34 Pg C yr -1 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.28-0.42 Pg C yr -1 , which differed significantly between forest types. The largest contributor to the increment was deciduous broadleaf forest (37.8%), while the smallest was deciduous needleleaf forest (2.7%). The vegetation C sequestration rate might reach its maximum around 2020, although vegetation C storage increases continually. It is estimated that vegetation C sequestration might offset 6-8% of China's future emissions. Furthermore, there was a significant negative relationship between vegetation C sequestration rate and C emission rate in different provinces of China, suggesting that developed provinces might need to compensate for undeveloped provinces through C trade. Our findings will provide valuable guidelines to policymakers for designing afforestation strategies and forest C trade in China. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Divergent hydrological response to large-scale afforestation and vegetation greening in China

PubMed Central

Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Ling; Wang, Kai; Zhou, Liming

2018-01-01

China has experienced substantial changes in vegetation cover, with a 10% increase in the leaf area index and an ~41.5 million-hectare increase in forest area since the 1980s. Earlier studies have suggested that increases in leaf area and tree cover have led to a decline in soil moisture and runoff due to increased evapotranspiration (ET), especially in dry regions of China. However, those studies often ignored precipitation responses to vegetation increases, which could offset some of the negative impact on soil moisture by increased ET. We investigated 30-year vegetation impacts on regional hydrology by allowing for vegetation-induced changes in precipitation using a coupled land-atmosphere global climate model, with a higher spatial resolution zoomed grid over China. We found high spatial heterogeneity in the vegetation impacts on key hydrological variables across China. In North and Southeast China, the increased precipitation from vegetation greening and the increased forest area, although statistically insignificant, supplied enough water to cancel out enhanced ET, resulting in weak impact on soil moisture. In Southwest China, however, the increase in vegetation cover significantly reduced soil moisture while precipitation was suppressed by the weakened summer monsoon. In Northeast China, the only area where forest cover declined, soil moisture was significantly reduced, by −8.1 mm decade−1, likely because of an intensified anticyclonic circulation anomaly during summer. These results suggest that offline model simulations can overestimate the increase of soil dryness in response to afforestation in North China, if vegetation feedbacks lead to increased precipitation like in our study. PMID:29750196

Performance of the SEAPROG prognosis variant of the forest vegetation simulator.

Treesearch

Michael H. McClellan; Frances E. Biles

2003-01-01

This paper reports the first phase of a recent effort to evaluate the performance and use of the FVS-SEAPROG vegetation growth model. In this paper, we present our evaluation of SEAPROG’s performance in modeling the growth of even-aged stands regenerated by clearcutting, windthrow, or fire. We evaluated the model by comparing model predictions to observed values from...

The Rangeland Vegetation Simulator: A user-driven system for quantifying production, succession, disturbance and fuels in non-forest environments

Treesearch

Matt Reeves; Leonardo Frid

2016-01-01

Rangeland landscapes occupy roughly 662 million acres in the coterminous U.S. (Reeves and Mitchell 2011) and their vegetation responds quickly to climate and management, with high relative growth rates and inter-annual variability. Current national decision support systems in the U.S. such as the Interagency Fuels Treatment Decision Support System (IFT-DSS) require...

Vegetation simulation and our changing world: Keynote address

Treesearch

Corbin Newman

2008-01-01

Prior to the 1990s, a primary focus of vegetation management on National Forest System (NFS) lands was commodity production. While the production of goods is still important, the last 20 years has seen an emphasis in the restoration of ecosystem function and resiliency. This is illustrated by a decline of more than 80% in NFS timber production since the late 1980s. The...

Stimulating seedling growth in early stages of secondary forest succession: a modeling approach to guide tree liberation

PubMed Central

van Kuijk, Marijke; Anten, Niels P. R.; Oomen, Roelof J.; Schieving, Feike

2014-01-01

Excessive growth of non-woody plants and shrubs on degraded lands can strongly hamper tree growth and thus secondary forest succession. A common method to accelerate succession, called liberation, involves opening up the vegetation canopy around young target trees. This can increase growth of target trees by reducing competition for light with neighboring plants. However, liberation has not always had the desired effect, likely due to differences in light requirement between tree species. Here we present a 3D-model, which calculates photosynthetic rate of individual trees in a vegetation stand. It enables us to examine how stature, crown structure, and physiological traits of target trees and characteristics of the surrounding vegetation together determine effects of light on tree growth. The model was applied to a liberation experiment conducted with three pioneer species in a young secondary forest in Vietnam. Species responded differently to the treatment depending on their height, crown structure and their shade-tolerance level. Model simulations revealed practical thresholds over which the tree growth response is heavily influenced by the height and density of surrounding vegetation and gap radius. There were strong correlations between calculated photosynthetic rates and observed growth: the model was well able to predict growth of trees in young forests and the effects of liberation there upon. Thus, our model serves as a useful tool to analyze light competition between young trees and surrounding vegetation and may help assess the potential effect of tree liberation. PMID:25101100

Towards ground-truthing of spaceborne estimates of above-ground biomass and leaf area index in tropical rain forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, P.; Huth, A.

2010-05-01

The canopy height of forests is a key variable which can be obtained using air- or spaceborne remote sensing techniques such as radar interferometry or lidar. If new allometric relationships between canopy height and the biomass stored in the vegetation can be established this would offer the possibility for a global monitoring of the above-ground carbon content on land. In the absence of adequate field data we use simulation results of a tropical rain forest growth model to propose what degree of information might be generated from canopy height and thus to enable ground-truthing of potential future satellite observations. We here analyse the correlation between canopy height in a tropical rain forest with other structural characteristics, such as above-ground biomass (AGB) (and thus carbon content of vegetation) and leaf area index (LAI). The process-based forest growth model FORMIND2.0 was applied to simulate (a) undisturbed forest growth and (b) a wide range of possible disturbance regimes typically for local tree logging conditions for a tropical rain forest site on Borneo (Sabah, Malaysia) in South-East Asia. It is found that for undisturbed forest and a variety of disturbed forests situations AGB can be expressed as a power-law function of canopy height h (AGB=a·hb) with an r2~60% for a spatial resolution of 20 m×20 m (0.04 ha, also called plot size). The regression is becoming significant better for the hectare wide analysis of the disturbed forest sites (r2=91%). There seems to exist no functional dependency between LAI and canopy height, but there is also a linear correlation (r2~60%) between AGB and the area fraction in which the canopy is highly disturbed. A reasonable agreement of our results with observations is obtained from a comparison of the simulations with permanent sampling plot data from the same region and with the large-scale forest inventory in Lambir. We conclude that the spaceborne remote sensing techniques have the potential to quantify the carbon contained in the vegetation, although this calculation contains due to the heterogeneity of the forest landscape structural uncertainties which restrict future applications to spatial averages of about one hectare in size. The uncertainties in AGB for a given canopy height are here 20-40% (95% confidence level) corresponding to a standard deviation of less than ±10%. This uncertainty on the 1 ha-scale is much smaller than in the analysis of 0.04 ha-scale data. At this small scale (0.04 ha) AGB can only be calculated out of canopy height with an uncertainty which is at least of the magnitude of the signal itself due to the natural spatial heterogeneity of these forests.

Using forest inventory and analysis data and the forest vegetation simulator to predict and monitor fisher (Martes pennanti) resting habitat suitability

Treesearch

William J. Zielinski; Andrew N. Gray; Jeffrey R. Dunk; Joseph W. Sherlock; Gary E. Dixon

2010-01-01

New knowledge from wildlife-habitat relationship models is often difficult to implement in a management context. This can occur because researchers do not always consider whether managers have access to information about environmental covariates that permit the models to be applied. Moreover, ecosystem management requires knowledge about the condition of habitats over...

Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests

Treesearch

Linda B. Brubaker; Philip E. Higuera; T. Scott Rupp; Mark A. Olson; Patricia M. Anderson; Feng Sheng. Hu

2009-01-01

Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a...

Soil Moisture Estimate under Forest using a Semi-empirical Model at P-Band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truong-Loi, M.; Saatchi, S.; Jaruwatanadilok, S.

2013-12-01

In this paper we show the potential of a semi-empirical algorithm to retrieve soil moisture under forests using P-band polarimetric SAR data. In past decades, several remote sensing techniques have been developed to estimate the surface soil moisture. In most studies associated with radar sensing of soil moisture, the proposed algorithms are focused on bare or sparsely vegetated surfaces where the effect of vegetation can be ignored. At long wavelengths such as L-band, empirical or physical models such as the Small Perturbation Model (SPM) provide reasonable estimates of surface soil moisture at depths of 0-5cm. However for densely covered vegetated surfaces such as forests, the problem becomes more challenging because the vegetation canopy is a complex scattering environment. For this reason there have been only few studies focusing on retrieving soil moisture under vegetation canopy in the literature. Moghaddam et al. developed an algorithm to estimate soil moisture under a boreal forest using L- and P-band SAR data. For their studied area, double-bounce between trunks and ground appear to be the most important scattering mechanism. Thereby, they implemented parametric models of radar backscatter for double-bounce using simulations of a numerical forest scattering model. Hajnsek et al. showed the potential of estimating the soil moisture under agricultural vegetation using L-band polarimetric SAR data and using polarimetric-decomposition techniques to remove the vegetation layer. Here we use an approach based on physical formulation of dominant scattering mechanisms and three parameters that integrates the vegetation and soil effects at long wavelengths. The algorithm is a simplification of a 3-D coherent model of forest canopy based on the Distorted Born Approximation (DBA). The simplified model has three equations and three unknowns, preserving the three dominant scattering mechanisms of volume, double-bounce and surface for three polarized backscattering coefficients: σHH, σVV and σHV. The inversion process, which is not an ill-posed problem, uses the non-linear optimization method of Levenberg-Marquardt and estimates the three model parameters: vegetation aboveground biomass, average soil moisture and surface roughness. The model analytical formulation will be first recalled and sensitivity analyses will be shown. Then some results obtained with real SAR data will be presented and compared to ground estimates.

Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

2010-05-01

Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region changed from warm temperate forest during the last glacial maximum to the grassland and dry shrubland, suggesting a drier climate during Heinrich event 1. In south-western Africa savanna and dry woodland changed into boreal forest and boreal-temperate forest suggesting wetter conditions. The biomes diagnosed from the control-run, were compared to the modern vegetation reconstruction of BIOME 4 (http://www.bridge.bris.ac.uk/resources/Databases/BIOMES_data). Consistent biome patterns were simulated for the tropical forests of western and south-western Africa and the grasslands of northern Africa. On the other hand, in southern Europe, where the BIOME 4 vegetation reconstruction is dominated by warm temperate and temperate forest, our model shows a strong bias towards the grassland.

Vegetation of Eurasia from the last glacial maximum to present: Key biogeographic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binney, Heather; Edwards, Mary; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Lozhkin, Anatoly; Anderson, Patricia; Kaplan, Jed O.; Andreev, Andrei; Bezrukova, Elena; Blyakharchuk, Tatiana; Jankovska, Vlasta; Khazina, Irina; Krivonogov, Sergey; Kremenetski, Konstantin; Nield, Jo; Novenko, Elena; Ryabogina, Natalya; Solovieva, Nadia; Willis, Kathy; Zernitskaya, Valentina

2017-02-01

Continental-scale estimates of vegetation cover, including land-surface properties and biogeographic trends, reflect the response of plant species to climate change over the past millennia. These estimates can help assess the effectiveness of simulations of climate change using forward and inverse modelling approaches. With the advent of transient and contiguous time-slice palaeoclimate simulations, vegetation datasets with similar temporal qualities are desirable. We collated fossil pollen records for the period 21,000-0 cal yr BP (kyr cal BP; calibrated ages) for Europe and Asia north of 40°N, using extant databases and new data; we filtered records for adequate dating and sorted the nomenclature to conform to a consistent yet extensive taxon list. From this database we extracted pollen spectra representing 1000-year time-slices from 21 kyr cal BP to present and used the biomization approach to define the most likely vegetation biome represented. Biomes were mapped for the 22 time slices, and key plant functional types (PFTs, the constituents of the biomes) were tracked though time. An error matrix and index of topographic complexity clearly showed that the accuracy of pollen-based biome assignments (when compared with modern vegetation) was negatively correlated with topographic complexity, but modern vegetation was nevertheless effectively mapped by the pollen, despite moderate levels of misclassification for most biomes. The pattern at 21 ka is of herb-dominated biomes across the whole region. From the onset of deglaciation (17-18 kyr cal BP), some sites in Europe record forest biomes, particularly the south, and the proportion of forest biomes gradually increases with time through 14 kyr cal BP. During the same period, forest biomes and steppe or tundra biomes are intermixed across the central Asian mountains, and forest biomes occur in coastal Pacific areas. These forest biome occurrences, plus a record of dated plant macrofossils, indicate that some tree populations existed in southern and Eastern Europe and central and far-eastern Eurasia. PFT composition of the herbaceous biomes emphasises the significant contribution of diverse forbs to treeless vegetation, a feature often obscured in pollen records. An increase in moisture ca. 14 kyr cal BP is suggested by a shift to woody biomes and an increase in sites recording initialization and development of lakes and peat deposits, particularly in the European portion of the region. Deforestation of Western Europe, presumably related to agricultural expansion, is clearly visible in the most recent two millennia.

Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen needleleaf forest types persisted on private lands under all four future scenarios. Result suggest that building collaborations across management borders could be valuable tool to guide natural resource management actions into the future.

Improving simulated spatial distribution of productivity and biomass in Amazon forests using the ACME land model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Shi, X.; Xu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Norby, R. J.

2017-12-01

Tropical forests play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for one third of the global NPP and containing about 25% of global vegetation biomass and soil carbon. This is particularly true for tropical forests in the Amazon region, as it comprises approximately 50% of the world's tropical forests. It is therefore important for us to understand and represent the processes that determine the fluxes and storage of carbon in these forests. In this study, we show that the implementation of phosphorus (P) cycle and P limitation in the ACME Land Model (ALM) improves simulated spatial pattern of NPP. The P-enabled ALM is able to capture the west-to-east gradient of productivity, consistent with field observations. We also show that by improving the representation of mortality processes, ALM is able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of above ground biomass across the Amazon region.

The groundwater subsidy to vegetation: groundwater exchanges between landcover patches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steven, L. I.; Gimenez, R.; Jobbagy, E. G.

2015-12-01

The Gran Chaco is a hot, dry plain, that spans over 60 million hectares across Bolivia, Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina. It supports high biodiversity in its dry forest and savannahs, but is rapidly being converted to agriculture in response to growing soy demand and technology including genetic modification and zero-till, that has made cultivation in drier landscapes more viable. Under natural conditions, the deep-rooted, native vegetation of the Chaco effectively captured all rainfall for evapotranspiration resulting in near zero groundwater recharge under the dry forest. Conversion to shallower rooted soy and corn, combined with the fallow period prior to the growing season, reduces evapotranspiration and allows some water to percolate through the root zone and recharge the groundwater system. When this groundwater recharge occurs, it creates groundwater mounding and a hydraulic gradient that drives flow to adjacent landcover patches where recharge does not occur. As the watertable rises, groundwater becomes available to the deep-rooted, dry forest vegetation. We develop a soil and groundwater flow model to simulate infiltration, percolation, evaporation, rootwater uptake, groundwater recharge and the lateral transfer of water between adjacent landcover patches to quantify this groundwater subsidy from converted agricultural lands to remnant patches of dry forest.

Predictors of Drought Recovery across Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, W.

2016-12-01

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but central for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with basic plant physiological understanding. Here, we discuss what we have learned about forest ecosystem recovery from extreme drought across spatial and temporal scales, drawing on inference from tree rings, eddy covariance data, large scale gross primary productivity products, and ecosystem models. In tree rings, we find pervasive and substantial "legacy effects" of reduced growth and incomplete recovery for 1-4 years after severe drought, and that legacy effects are most prevalent in dry ecosystems, Pinaceae, and species with low hydraulic safety margins. At larger scales, we see relatively rapid recovery of ecosystem fluxes, with strong influences of ecosystem productivity and diversity and longer recovery periods in high latidue forests. In contrast, no or limited legacy effects are simulated in current climate-vegetation models after drought, and we highlight some of the key missing mechanisms in dynamic vegetation models. Our results reveal hysteresis in forest ecosystem carbon cycling and delayed recovery from climate extremes and help advance a predictive understanding of ecosystem recovery.

Coevolution of hydraulic, soil and vegetation processes in estuarine wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trivisonno, Franco; Rodriguez, Jose F.; Riccardi, Gerardo; Saco, Patricia; Stenta, Hernan

2014-05-01

Estuarine wetlands of south eastern Australia, typically display a vegetation zonation with a sequence mudflats - mangrove forest - saltmarsh plains from the seaward margin and up the topographic gradient. Estuarine wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems in the world, providing unique habitats for fish and many terrestrial species. They also have a carbon sequestration capacity that surpasess terrestrial forest. Estuarine wetlands respond to sea-level rise by vertical accretion and horizontal landward migration, in order to maintain their position in the tidal frame. In situations in which buffer areas for landward migration are not available, saltmarsh can be lost due to mangrove encroachment. As a result of mangrove invasion associated in part with raising estuary water levels and urbanisation, coastal saltmarsh in parts of south-eastern Australia has been declared an endangered ecological community. Predicting estuarine wetlands response to sea-level rise requires modelling the coevolving dynamics of water flow, soil and vegetation. This paper presents preliminary results of our recently developed numerical model for wetland dynamics in wetlands of the Hunter estuary of NSW. The model simulates continuous tidal inflow into the wetland, and accounts for the effect of varying vegetation types on flow resistance. Coevolution effects appear as vegetation types are updated based on their preference to prevailing hydrodynamic conditions. The model also considers that accretion values vary with vegetation type. Simulations are driven using local information collected over several years, which includes estuary water levels, accretion rates, soil carbon content, flow resistance and vegetation preference to hydraulic conditions. Model results predict further saltmarsh loss under current conditions of moderate increase of estuary water levels.

Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests.

PubMed

Brubaker, Linda B; Higuera, Philip E; Rupp, T Scott; Olson, Mark A; Anderson, Patricia M; Hu, Feng Sheng

2009-07-01

Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecologica model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a mid-Holocene fire-regime shift in boreal forests of the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska, U.S.A. Fire-return intervals (FRIs, number of years between fires) are estimated over the past 7000 calibrated 14C years (7-0 kyr BP [before present]) from short-term variations in charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) at three lakes, and an index of area burned is inferred from long-term CHARs at these sites. ALFRESCO simulations of FRIs and annual area burned are based on prescribed vegetation and climate for 7-5 kyr BP and 5-0 kyr BP, inferred from pollen and stomata records and qualitative paleoclimate proxies. Two sets of experiments examine potential causes of increased burning between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. (1) Static-vegetation scenarios: white spruce dominates with static mean temperature and total precipitation of the growing season for 7-0 kyr BP or with decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation for 5-0 kyr BP. (2) Changed-vegetation scenarios: black spruce dominates 5-0 kyr BP, with static temperature and precipitation or decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation. Median FRIs decreased between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP in empirical data and changed-vegetation scenarios but remained relatively constant in static-vegetation scenarios. Median empirical and simulated FRIs are not statistically different for 7-5 kyr BP and for two changed-vegetation scenarios (temperature decrease, precipitation increase) for 5-0 kyr BP. In these scenarios, cooler temperatures or increased precipitation dampened the effect of increased landscape flammability resulting from the increase in black spruce. CHAR records and all changed-vegetation scenarios indicate long-term increases in area burned between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. The similarity of CHAR and ALFRESCO results demonstrates the compatibility of these independent data sets for investigating ecological mechanisms causing past fire-regime changes. The finding that vegetation flammability was a major driver of Holocene fire regimes is consistent with other investigations that suggest that landscape fuel characteristics will mediate the direct effects of future climate change on boreal fire regimes.

Simulating adaptive wood harvest in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Nabel, Julia; Pongratz, Julia

2016-04-01

The world's forest experience substantial carbon exchange fluxes between land and atmosphere. Large carbon sinks occur in response to changes in environmental conditions (such as climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations), removing about one quarter of current anthropogenic CO2-emissions. Large sinks also occur due to regrowth of forest on areas of agricultural abandonment or forest management. Forest management, on the other hand, also leads to substantial amounts of carbon being eventually released to the atmosphere. Both sinks and sources attributable to forests are therefore dependent on the intensity of management. Forest management in turn depends on the availability of resources, which is influenced by environmental conditions and sustainability of management systems applied. Estimating future carbon fluxes therefore requires accounting for the interaction of environmental conditions, forest growth, and management. However, this interaction is not fully captured by current modeling approaches: Earth system models depict in detail interactions between climate, the carbon cycle, and vegetation growth, but use prescribed information on management. Resource needs and land management, however, are simulated by Integrated Assessment Models that typically only have coarse representations of the influence of environmental changes on vegetation growth and are typically based on the demand for wood driven by regional population growth and energy needs. Here we present a study that provides the link between environmental conditions, forest growth and management. We extend the land component JSBACH of the Max Planck Institute's Earth system model (MPI-ESM) to simulate potential wood harvest in response to altered growth conditions and thus as adaptive to changing climate and CO2 conditions. We apply the altered model to estimate potential wood harvest for future climates (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) for the management scenario of "sustained yields" (SY), i.e. that wood harvest is not allowed to reduce wood carbon stocks below their present-day average state. We find that the potentials for SY range from about 420 to 610 PgC cumulatively until 2100 depending on assumed future climate (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 or 8.5). They are thus substantially higher than the harvest prescribed in the context of the same RCPs for the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which ranged from about 130 to 210 PgC. The underlying drivers of the higher potentials of SY as compared to the RCP harvest are in all scenarios foremost avoided natural mortality, followed by avoided losses due to fire and windbreak. Further, usage of the increase in forest carbon stocks simulated with time under RCP harvest plays a large role in the first decades of the 21st century. The potential wood harvest that we simulate accounting for environmental changes does not include considerations on biodiversity and other ecosystem services or technical feasibility. However, the substantially higher simulated harvest from SY as compared to that prescribed from the RCPs and the difference found between climate scenarios highlights the need to account for effects of environmental changes on vegetation growth also in socio-economic models and thus the need for a consistent representation of climate-landuse interactions.

Climate Change Transforms Fire Regimes but Does not Eliminate Forest Carbon Sequestration in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, P. D.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Berryman, E.

2017-12-01

Annual area burned in the Rocky Mountains varies with climatic conditions. However, projecting long-term changes in wildfire presents an enduring challenge because climate also constrains vegetation and fuel availability. We combined an aridity-threshold fire model with the Landis-II dynamic landscape vegetation model (NECN extension) to project climate change impacts on vegetation, area burned, and ecosystem carbon balance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). We developed a fire model that relates drought stress to area burned by quantifying an aridity threshold separating large and small years in 15 ecoregions in the Intermountain West. A significant positive correlation (r2 = 0.97) exists between mean fire-season aridity and ecoregion-specific aridity thresholds. We simulated vegetation and fire dynamics in the GYE at 250 m spatial resolution with Landis-II, using projections from five climate models and two emissions scenarios for the period 1980-2100 AD. We determined if each simulation year exceeded the regional aridity threshold, then randomly drew the number of fires and size of individual fires from fire-size distributions from large or small fire years. Burned area increases dramatically in most climate scenarios, especially after 2060, when most years exceed the aridity threshold. Productivity gains due to rising temperatures partially offset biomass lost to fire, but C stocks plateau or decline after 2060 in most simulations as burned area increases, and drought stress causes post-fire regeneration to decline at low elevations. However, species level changes (e.g. expansion by drought-tolerant Pseuodotsuga menziesii) help maintain productivity in sites where water becomes limiting. Fire-adapted Pinus contorta occupies less total area, but a greater proportion of remaining forests, and Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa significantly decline. Although fire and climate change will alter species distributions and forest structure, our results suggest that the GYE can maintain a C sink through 2100. However, C stocks will likely shift to higher elevations, and forests will be less resilient to disturbance, in a warmer future. Our landscape-level approach identifies regions likely to maintain high conservation value and ecosystem services under multiple climate scenarios.

Improving FIA trend analysis through model-based estimation using landsat disturbance maps and the forest vegetation simulator

Treesearch

Sean P. Healey; Gretchen G. Moisen; Paul L. Patterson

2012-01-01

The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program's panel system, in which 10-20 percent of the sample is measured in any given year, is designed to increase the currency of FIA reporting and its sensitivity to factors operating at relatively fine temporal scales. Now that much of the country has completed at least one measurement cycle over all panels, there is an...

Riparian Vegetation Effects on Near-Bank Turbulence During Overbank Flows: A Flume Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McBride, M.; Thompson, D. M.; Owen, T. E.; Pearce, A. R.; Hession, W. C.; Rizzo, D.

2005-12-01

Measurements from a fixed-bed, Froude-scaled hydraulic model of a stream in northeastern Vermont demonstrated the importance of riparian vegetation effects on near-bank turbulence during overbank flood events. The prototype stream, a tributary to Sleepers River, increased in channel width within the last 40 years in response to passive reforestation of its riparian zone. Previous research has found that reaches of small streams with forested riparian zones are commonly wider that adjacent reaches with non-forested, or meadow, vegetation; however, the driving mechanisms for this morphologic difference are not fully explained. Flume experiments were performed to investigate near-bank turbulence as a mechanism for channel widening in response to reforestation. A 1:5 scale, simplified model of half a channel and its adjacent floodplain was constructed within a 6 m long recirculating flume. The test region was 3.7 m long and 0.9 m wide and oriented with the channel centerline at the flume wall. The channel bed slope was fixed at 0.03, and experiments were run at three discharges: 30, 33, and 36 l/s. Two types of riparian vegetation scenarios were simulated: forested, with rigid, randomly-distributed, wooden dowels, and non-forested, with synthetic grass carpeting. Three-dimensional velocities were measured with a Nortek Vectrino acoustic Doppler velocimeter at 41 different locations within the channel and floodplain at near-bed and 0.6-depth elevations. Observations of three-dimensional velocities and calculations of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) showed significant differences between forested and non-forested runs. Results indicated that turbulence intensity, as quantified by TKE, roughly doubled throughout the channel and floodplain when forested vegetation was introduced. Given that sediment entrainment and transport can be amplified in flows with high turbulence intensity, our results demonstrated the potential for increased erosion during overbank flood events in stream reaches with recently reforested riparian zones. The concentration of high TKE values and vertical upwelling at the channel-floodplain interface in forested runs indicated a probable erosion hot spot that could promote channel widening.

Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes to climatic variability in Alaska.

Treesearch

D. Bachelet; J. Lenihan; R. Neilson; R. Drapek; T. Kittel

2005-01-01

The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 was used to examine climate, fire, and ecosystems interactions in Alaska under historical (1922-1996) and future (1997-2100) climate conditions. Projections show that by the end of the 21st century, 75%-90% of the area simulated as tundra in 1922 is replaced by boreal and temperate forest. From 1922 to 1996, simulation results...

Assessment of Climate Impact Changes on Forest Vegetation Dynamics by Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoran, Maria

Climate variability represents the ensemble of net radiation, precipitation, wind and temper-ature characteristic for a region in a certain time scale (e.g.monthly, seasonal annual). The temporal and/or spatial sensitivity of forest vegetation dynamics to climate variability is used to characterize the quantitative relationship between these two quantities in temporal and/or spatial scales. So, climate variability has a great impact on the forest vegetation dynamics. Forest vegetation phenology constitutes an efficient bio-indicator of climate and anthropogenic changes impacts and a key parameter for understanding and modelling vegetation-climate in-teractions. Satellite remote sensing is a very useful tool to assess the main phenological events based on tracking significant changes on temporal trajectories of Normalized Difference Vege-tation Index (NDVIs), which requires NDVI time-series with good time resolution, over homo-geneous area, cloud-free and not affected by atmospheric and geometric effects and variations in sensor characteristics (calibration, spectral responses). Spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics have been quantified as the total amount of vegetation (mean NDVI) and the seasonal difference (annual NDVI amplitude) by a time series analysis of NDVI satellite images with the Harmonic ANalysis of Time Series algorithm. A climate indicator (CI) was created from meteorological data (precipitation over net radiation). The relationships between the vegetation dynamics and the CI have been determined spatially and temporally. The driest test regions prove to be the most sensitive to climate impact. The spatial and temporal patterns of the mean NDVI are the same, while they are partially different for the seasonal difference. The aim of this paper was to quantify this impact over a forest ecosystem placed in the North-Eastern part of Bucharest town, Romania, with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) parameter extracted from IKONOS and LANDSAT TM and ETM satellite images and meteorological data over l995-2007 period. For investigated test area, considerable NDVI decline was observed between 1995 and 2008 due to the drought events during 2003 and 2007 years. Under stress conditions, it is evident that environmental factors such as soil type, parent material, and to-pography are not correlated with NDVI dynamics. Specific aim of this paper was to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of climatic changes on forest systems and its biodiversity as well as on adjacent environment areas and to provide early warning strategies on the basis of spectral information derived from satellite data regarding atmospheric effects of forest biome degradation . The paper aims to describe observed trends and potential impacts based on scenarios from simulations with regional climate models and other downscaling procedures.

Modeling the mitigation effect of coastal forests on tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kh'ng, Xin Yi; Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

2017-08-01

As we have learned from the 26 Dec 2004 mega Andaman tsunami that killed 250, 000 lives worldwide, tsunami is a devastating natural disaster that can cause severe impacts including immense loss of human lives and extensive destruction of properties. The wave energy can be dissipated by the presence of coastal mangrove forests, which provide some degree of protection against tsunami waves. On the other hand, costly artificial structures such as reinforced walls can substantially diminish the aesthetic value and may cause environmental problems. To quantify the effectiveness of coastal forests in mitigating tsunami waves, an in-house 2-D model TUNA-RP is developed and used to quantify the reduction in wave heights and velocities due to the presence of coastal forests. The degree of reduction varies significantly depending on forest flow-resistant properties such as vegetation characteristics, forest density and forest width. The ability of coastal forest in reducing tsunami wave heights along the west coast of Penang Island is quantified by means of model simulations. Comparison between measured tsunami wave heights for the 2004 Andaman tsunami and 2-D TUNA-RP model simulated values demonstrated good agreement.

The use of rainfall simulations to assess land degradation and soil erosion produced by an SLM technology, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, J.; Coelho, C.; Carvalho, T.; Oliveira, E.; Valente, S.

2012-04-01

Forest fires represent the main threat to sustainable forest management in Portugal. During the last fifty years, a massive depopulation took place at rural areas, developing a landscape more prone to fire. The expansion of forest and shrubland into former agricultural areas, as well as, the rapid regeneration of vegetation after fire in some areas, highlighted the need to implement several measures to protect forest and rural areas against fires. Mação municipality suffered massive fires in 2003 and 2005, where more than 70% of the municipality area has been burnt. The implementation of a forest fire prevention and mitigation technology as well as the vegetation regeneration rate was assessed at this location, under the framework of DESIRE project1. Forest is the dominant land use at Mação municipality, consisting of Pinus pinaster, with some Eucalyptus globulus and residual oak forest and shrubland. An important part was burned recently and gave way to regeneration of stands and shrubs. In 2009, the municipality started to implement an SLM (Sustainable Land Management) technology, Primary Strips Network System for Fuel Management (RPFGC). This technology is integrated in the National System to Prevent and Protect Forest against Fires and it is defined by the National Forest Authority (AFN). The RPFGC are linear strips, strategically located in areas where total or partial removal of the forest biomass is possible. This technology contributes to prevent the occurrence and spread of large forest fires and to reduce their consequences for the environment, people, infrastructures, etc . However, the removal of vegetation tends to expose bare soil to the erosive effects of rainfall. Rainfall simulations were used to assess erosive processes, such as runoff and sediment loss, in three types of land cover: pine, eucalyptus and shrubland. The results from rainfall simulations on areas inside the RPFGC showed higher results for all studied parameters, while whether or not statistically significant, shrubland areas appear to be more sensitive to this technology and pine sites the least affected spots. Total soil loss was significant in shrubland areas, but the same did not happen in pine and in eucalyptus sites. Overall runoff production achieved no representative statistical differences in any of the studied cases, indicating its independence of either the technology or soil occupation. However, total soil loss was significantly different in shrubland areas. As for total organic matter loss, resulted to be the most affected parameter included in this study, which indicates that this SLM technology reduces the organic matter content on shrub and eucalyptus soils. (1) DESIRE Project (037046): Desertification Mitigation and Remediation of land - a global approach for local solutions, EU-funded project (2007-2012; http://www.desire-project.eu/).

A canopy radiative transfer scheme with explicit FAPAR for the ISBA-A-gs land surface model: impact on carbon fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Carrer, Dominique; Roujean, Jean-Louis; Lafont, Sébastien

2013-04-01

The ISBA-A-gs land surface model is a component of the SURFEX modeling platform developed by Meteo-France, used for research and operational applications in meteorology, hydrology, and climate modeling. ISBA-A-gs simulates hourly water and CO2 fluxes together with soil moisture. An option of the model permits the simulation of the vegetation biomass and of the leaf area index (LAI). The simulated photosynthesis depends on atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature and humidity, soil moisture, radiant solar energy, the photosynthetic capacity of the leaves and on factors that condition the distribution of solar radiation over the leaves. In the original version of the model (Jacobs et al. (Agr. Forest Meteorol., 1996), Calvet et al. (Agr. Forest Meteorol., 1998)), the radiative transfer scheme within the canopy was implemented according to a self shading approach. The incident fluxes at the top of the canopy go through a multi-layer vegetation cover. Then, the attenuated flux in the PAR wavelength domain of each layer is used by the photosynthesis model to calculate the leaf net assimilation of CO2 (An). The leaf-level An values are then integrated at the canopy level. In this study, an upgraded version of the radiative transfer model is implemented. An assessment of the vegetation transmittance functions and of various canopy light-response curves is made. The fluxes produced by the new version of ISBA-A-gs are evaluated using data from a number of FLUXNET forest sites. The new model presents systematically better scores than the previous version. Moreover, ISBA-A-gs is now able to simulate prognostic values of the fraction of absorbed PAR (FAPAR). As FAPAR can be observed from space, this new capability permits the validation of the model simulations at a global scale, and the integration of measured FAPAR values in the model through data assimilation techniques.

[Variation of forest vegetation carbon storage and carbon sequestration rate in Liaoning Province, Northeast China].

PubMed

Zhen, Wei; Huang, Mei; Zhai, Yin-Li; Chen, Ke; Gong, Ya-Zhen

2014-05-01

The forest vegetation carbon stock and carbon sequestration rate in Liaoning Province, Northeast China, were predicted by using Canadian carbon balance model (CBM-CFS3) combining with the forest resource data. The future spatio-temporal distribution and trends of vegetation carbon storage, carbon density and carbon sequestration rate were projected, based on the two scenarios, i. e. with or without afforestation. The result suggested that the total forest vegetation carbon storage and carbon density in Liaoning Province in 2005 were 133.94 Tg and 25.08 t x hm(-2), respectively. The vegetation carbon storage in Quercus was the biggest, while in Robinia pseudoacacia was the least. Both Larix olgensis and broad-leaved forests had higher vegetation carbon densities than others, and the vegetation carbon densities of Pinus tabuliformis, Quercus and Robinia pseudoacacia were close to each other. The spatial distribution of forest vegetation carbon density in Liaoning Province showed a decrease trend from east to west. In the eastern forest area, the future increase of vegetation carbon density would be smaller than those in the northern forest area, because most of the forests in the former part were matured or over matured, while most of the forests in the later part were young. Under the scenario of no afforestation, the future increment of total forest vegetation carbon stock in Liaoning Province would increase gradually, and the total carbon sequestration rate would decrease, while they would both increase significantly under the afforestation scenario. Therefore, afforestation plays an important role in increasing vegetation carbon storage, carbon density and carbon sequestration rate.

Importance of vegetation distribution for future carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, A.; Xia, J.; Arneth, A.; Luo, Y.; Smith, B.

2015-12-01

Projections of future terrestrial carbon uptake vary greatly between simulations. Net primary production (NPP), wild fires, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts) and soil decomposition constitute the main processes governing the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate. While primary production and soil respiration are relatively well studied and implemented in all global ecosystem models used to project the future land sink of CO2, vegetation dynamics are less studied and not always represented in global models. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality and the associated turnover and proven skill in predicting vegetation distribution and succession. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing at year 2085. We exchanged carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations and investigate the changes predicted by the emulator. This method allowed us to partition the entire ensemble carbon uptake uncertainty into individual processes. We found that NPP, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33% respectively of uncertainties in modeled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation dynamics was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by shifts in vegetation distribution, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

75 FR 32738 - Gallatin National Forest-Hebgen Lake Ranger District; MT; Lonesome Wood Vegetation Management...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-09

...; Lonesome Wood Vegetation Management Project 2 AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of Intent to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement. SUMMARY: This integrated forest vegetation management project... comments to Gallatin National Forest, Attn: Lonesome Wood Vegetation Management Project 2, Bozeman Ranger...

A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

2009-04-01

The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

Calculation of Individual Tree Water Use in a Bornean Tropical Rain Forest Using Individual-Based Dynamic Vegetation Model SEIB-DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Saito, T.; Matsumoto, K.; Kume, T.; Nakagawa, M.; Sato, H.

2015-12-01

Bornean tropical rain forests are among the moistest biomes of the world with abundant rainfall throughout the year, and considered to be vulnerable to a change in the rainfall regime; e.g., high tree mortality was reported in such forests induced by a severe drought associated with the ENSO event in 1997-1998. In order to assess the effect (risk) of future climate change on eco-hydrology in such tropical rain forests, it is important to understand the water use of trees individually, because the vulnerability or mortality of trees against climate change can depend on the size of trees. Therefore, we refined the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEIB-DGVM) so that the transpiration and its control by stomata are calculated for each individual tree. By using this model, we simulated the transpiration of each tree and its DBH-size dependency, and successfully reproduced the measured data of sap flow of trees and eddy covariance flux data obtained in a Bornean lowland tropical rain forest in Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, Malaysia.

[Natural succession of vegetation in Tiantong National Forest Park, Zhejiang Province of East China: a simulation study].

PubMed

Lü, Na; Ni, Jian

2013-01-01

By using spatially explicit landscape model (LANDIS 6.0 PRO), and parameterized this model with the long-term research and observation data of Tiantong National Station of Forest Eco-system Observation and Research, this paper simulated the natural succession of evergreen broad-leaved forest in Tiantong National Forest park, Zhejiang Province in the future 500 years, analyzed the spatial distribution and age structure of dominant species and major landscapes, and explored the succession pattern of the evergreen broad-leaved forest. In the park, the species alternation mostly occurred before the stage of evergreen broad-leaved forest. Pinus massoniana, Quercus fabric, and Liquidambar formosana occupied a large proportion during the early succession, but gradually disappeared with the succession process. Schima superba and Castanopsis fargesii took the main advantage in late succession, and developed to the climax community. Under the conditions without disturbances, the community was mainly composed of young forests in the early succession, and of mature or over-mature forests in the late succession, implying the insufficient regeneration ability of the community. LANDIS model could be used for simulating the landscape dynamics of evergreen broad-leaved forest in eastern China. In the future research, both the model structure and the model parameters should be improved, according to the complexity and diversity of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest.

Canopy BRF simulation of forest with different crown shape and height in larger scale based on Radiosity method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jinling; Qu, Yonghua; Wang, Jindi; Wan, Huawei; Liu, Xiaoqing

2007-06-01

Radiosity method is based on the computer simulation of 3D real structures of vegetations, such as leaves, branches and stems, which are composed by many facets. Using this method we can simulate the canopy reflectance and its bidirectional distribution of the vegetation canopy in visible and NIR regions. But with vegetations are more complex, more facets to compose them, so large memory and lots of time to calculate view factors are required, which are the choke points of using Radiosity method to calculate canopy BRF of lager scale vegetation scenes. We derived a new method to solve the problem, and the main idea is to abstract vegetation crown shapes and to simplify their structures, which can lessen the number of facets. The facets are given optical properties according to the reflectance, transmission and absorption of the real structure canopy. Based on the above work, we can simulate the canopy BRF of the mix scenes with different species vegetation in the large scale. In this study, taking broadleaf trees as an example, based on their structure characteristics, we abstracted their crowns as ellipsoid shells, and simulated the canopy BRF in visible and NIR regions of the large scale scene with different crown shape and different height ellipsoids. Form this study, we can conclude: LAI, LAD the probability gap, the sunlit and shaded surfaces are more important parameter to simulate the simplified vegetation canopy BRF. And the Radiosity method can apply us canopy BRF data in any conditions for our research.

Mapping forest height in Alaska using GLAS, Landsat composites, and airborne LiDAR

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Birgit; Nelson, Kurtis

2014-01-01

Vegetation structure, including forest canopy height, is an important input variable to fire behavior modeling systems for simulating wildfire behavior. As such, forest canopy height is one of a nationwide suite of products generated by the LANDFIRE program. In the past, LANDFIRE has relied on a combination of field observations and Landsat imagery to develop existing vegetation structure products. The paucity of field data in the remote Alaskan forests has led to a very simple forest canopy height classification for the original LANDFIRE forest height map. To better meet the needs of data users and refine the map legend, LANDFIRE incorporated ICESat Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) data into the updating process when developing the LANDFIRE 2010 product. The high latitude of this region enabled dense coverage of discrete GLAS samples, from which forest height was calculated. Different methods for deriving height from the GLAS waveform data were applied, including an attempt to correct for slope. These methods were then evaluated and integrated into the final map according to predefined criteria. The resulting map of forest canopy height includes more height classes than the original map, thereby better depicting the heterogeneity of the landscape, and provides seamless data for fire behavior analysts and other users of LANDFIRE data.

A Forward GPS Multipath Simulator Based on the Vegetation Radiative Transfer Equation Model

PubMed Central

Wu, Xuerui; Jin, Shuanggen; Xia, Junming

2017-01-01

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have been widely used in navigation, positioning and timing. Nowadays, the multipath errors may be re-utilized for the remote sensing of geophysical parameters (soil moisture, vegetation and snow depth), i.e., GPS-Multipath Reflectometry (GPS-MR). However, bistatic scattering properties and the relation between GPS observables and geophysical parameters are not clear, e.g., vegetation. In this paper, a new element on bistatic scattering properties of vegetation is incorporated into the traditional GPS-MR model. This new element is the first-order radiative transfer equation model. The new forward GPS multipath simulator is able to explicitly link the vegetation parameters with GPS multipath observables (signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR), code pseudorange and carrier phase observables). The trunk layer and its corresponding scattering mechanisms are ignored since GPS-MR is not suitable for high forest monitoring due to the coherence of direct and reflected signals. Based on this new model, the developed simulator can present how the GPS signals (L1 and L2 carrier frequencies, C/A, P(Y) and L2C modulations) are transmitted (scattered and absorbed) through vegetation medium and received by GPS receivers. Simulation results show that the wheat will decrease the amplitudes of GPS multipath observables (SNR, phase and code), if we increase the vegetation moisture contents or the scatters sizes (stem or leaf). Although the Specular-Ground component dominates the total specular scattering, vegetation covered ground soil moisture has almost no effects on the final multipath signatures. Our simulated results are consistent with previous results for environmental parameter detections by GPS-MR. PMID:28587255

Effects of vegetation types on soil moisture estimation from the normalized land surface temperature versus vegetation index space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Dianjun; Zhou, Guoqing

2015-12-01

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable that has been widely used in many environmental studies. Land surface temperature versus vegetation index (LST-VI) space becomes a common way to estimate SM in optical remote sensing applications. Normalized LST-VI space is established by the normalized LST and VI to obtain the comparable SM in Zhang et al. (Validation of a practical normalized soil moisture model with in situ measurements in humid and semiarid regions [J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, DOI: 10.1080/01431161.2015.1055610). The boundary conditions in the study were set to limit the point A (the driest bare soil) and B (the wettest bare soil) for surface energy closure. However, no limitation was installed for point D (the full vegetation cover). In this paper, many vegetation types are simulated by the land surface model - Noah LSM 3.2 to analyze the effects on soil moisture estimation, such as crop, grass and mixed forest. The locations of point D are changed with vegetation types. The normalized LST of point D for forest is much lower than crop and grass. The location of point D is basically unchanged for crop and grass.

Prescribed fire effects on field-derived and simulated forest carbon stocks over time

Treesearch

Nicole M. Vaillant; Alicia L. Reiner; Erin K. Noonan-Wright

2013-01-01

To better understand the impact of prescribed fire on carbon stocks, we quantified aboveground and belowground carbon stocks within five pools (live trees and coarse roots, dead trees and coarse roots, live understory vegetation, down woody debris, and litter and duff) and potential carbon emissions from a simulated wildfire before and up to 8 years after prescribed...

Incorporating landscape fuel treatment modeling into the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

Robert C. Seli; Alan A. Ager; Nicholas L. Crookston; Mark A. Finney; Berni Bahro; James K. Agee; Charles W. McHugh

2008-01-01

A simulation system was developed to explore how fuel treatments placed in random and optimal spatial patterns affect the growth and behavior of large fires when implemented at different rates over the course of five decades. The system consists of several command line programs linked together: (1) FVS with the Parallel Processor (PPE) and Fire and Fuels (FFE)...

Simulation of quaking aspen potential fire behavior in Northern Utah, USA

Treesearch

R. Justin DeRose; A. Joshua Leffler

2014-01-01

Current understanding of aspen fire ecology in western North America includes the paradoxical characterization that aspen-dominated stands, although often regenerated following fire, are “fire-proof”. We tested this idea by predicting potential fire behavior across a gradient of aspen dominance in northern Utah using the Forest Vegetation Simulator and the Fire and...

Achieving Accuracy Requirements for Forest Biomass Mapping: A Data Fusion Method for Estimating Forest Biomass and LiDAR Sampling Error with Spaceborne Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montesano, P. M.; Cook, B. D.; Sun, G.; Simard, M.; Zhang, Z.; Nelson, R. F.; Ranson, K. J.; Lutchke, S.; Blair, J. B.

2012-01-01

The synergistic use of active and passive remote sensing (i.e., data fusion) demonstrates the ability of spaceborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and multispectral imagery for achieving the accuracy requirements of a global forest biomass mapping mission. This data fusion approach also provides a means to extend 3D information from discrete spaceborne LiDAR measurements of forest structure across scales much larger than that of the LiDAR footprint. For estimating biomass, these measurements mix a number of errors including those associated with LiDAR footprint sampling over regional - global extents. A general framework for mapping above ground live forest biomass (AGB) with a data fusion approach is presented and verified using data from NASA field campaigns near Howland, ME, USA, to assess AGB and LiDAR sampling errors across a regionally representative landscape. We combined SAR and Landsat-derived optical (passive optical) image data to identify forest patches, and used image and simulated spaceborne LiDAR data to compute AGB and estimate LiDAR sampling error for forest patches and 100m, 250m, 500m, and 1km grid cells. Forest patches were delineated with Landsat-derived data and airborne SAR imagery, and simulated spaceborne LiDAR (SSL) data were derived from orbit and cloud cover simulations and airborne data from NASA's Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (L VIS). At both the patch and grid scales, we evaluated differences in AGB estimation and sampling error from the combined use of LiDAR with both SAR and passive optical and with either SAR or passive optical alone. This data fusion approach demonstrates that incorporating forest patches into the AGB mapping framework can provide sub-grid forest information for coarser grid-level AGB reporting, and that combining simulated spaceborne LiDAR with SAR and passive optical data are most useful for estimating AGB when measurements from LiDAR are limited because they minimized forest AGB sampling errors by 15 - 38%. Furthermore, spaceborne global scale accuracy requirements were achieved. At least 80% of the grid cells at 100m, 250m, 500m, and 1km grid levels met AGB density accuracy requirements using a combination of passive optical and SAR along with machine learning methods to predict vegetation structure metrics for forested areas without LiDAR samples. Finally, using either passive optical or SAR, accuracy requirements were met at the 500m and 250m grid level, respectively.

Effects of harvest management practices on forest biomass and soil carbon in eucalypt forests in New South Wales, Australia: Simulations with the forest succession model LINKAGES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ranatunga, Kemachandra; Keenan, Rodney J.; Wullschleger, Stan D

2008-01-01

Understanding long-term changes in forest ecosystem carbon stocks under forest management practices such as timber harvesting is important for assessing the contribution of forests to the global carbon cycle. Harvesting effects are complicated by the amount, type, and condition of residue left on-site, the decomposition rate of this residue, the incorporation of residue into soil organic matter and the rate of new detritus input to the forest floor from regrowing vegetation. In an attempt to address these complexities, the forest succession model LINKAGES was used to assess the production of aboveground biomass, detritus, and soil carbon stocks in native Eucalyptusmore » forests as influenced by five harvest management practices in New South Wales, Australia. The original decomposition sub-routines of LINKAGES were modified by adding components of the Rothamsted (RothC) soil organic matter turnover model. Simulation results using the new model were compared to data from long-term forest inventory plots. Good agreement was observed between simulated and measured above-ground biomass, but mixed results were obtained for basal area. Harvesting operations examined included removing trees for quota sawlogs (QSL, DBH >80 cm), integrated sawlogs (ISL, DBH >20 cm) and whole-tree harvesting in integrated sawlogs (WTH). We also examined the impact of different cutting cycles (20, 50 or 80 years) and intensities (removing 20, 50 or 80 m{sup 3}). Generally medium and high intensities of shorter cutting cycles in sawlog harvesting systems produced considerably higher soil carbon values compared to no harvesting. On average, soil carbon was 2-9% lower in whole-tree harvest simulations whereas in sawlog harvest simulations soil carbon was 5-17% higher than in no harvesting.« less

Simulation of Runoff Changes Caused by Cropland to Forest Conversion in the Upper Yangtze River Region, SW China

PubMed Central

Yu, Pengtao; Wang, Yanhui; Coles, Neil; Xiong, Wei; Xu, Lihong

2015-01-01

The "Grain for Green Project" is a country-wide ecological program to converse marginal cropland to forest, which has been implemented in China since 2002. To quantify influence of this significant vegetation change, Guansihe Hydrological (GSH) Model, a validated physically-based distributed hydrological model, was applied to simulate runoff responses to land use change in the Guansihe watershed that is located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin in Southwestern China with an area of only 21.1 km2. Runoff responses to two single rainfall events, 90 mm and 206 mm respectively, were simulated for 16 scenarios of cropland to forest conversion. The model simulations indicated that the total runoff generated after conversion to forest was strongly dependent on whether the land was initially used for dry croplands without standing water in fields or constructed (or walled) paddy fields. The simulated total runoff generated from the two rainfall events displayed limited variation for the conversion of dry croplands to forest, while it strongly decreased after paddy fields were converted to forest. The effect of paddy terraces on runoff generation was dependent on the rainfall characteristics and antecedent moisture (or saturation) conditions in the fields. The reduction in simulated runoff generated from intense rainfall events suggested that afforestation and terracing might be effective in managing runoff and had the potential to mitigate flooding in southwestern China. PMID:26192181

Integrating SPOT-VEGETATION 13-yr time series and land-surface modelling to forecast the terrestrial carbon dynamics in a changing climate - The VEGECLIM project: achievements and lessons learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Defourny, Pierre; Verbeeck, Hans; Moreau, Inès; De Weirdt, Marjolein; Verhegghen, Astrid; Kibambe-Lubamba, Jean-Paul; Jungers, Quentin; Maignan, Fabienne; Najdovski, Nicolas; Poulter, Benjamin; MacBean, Natasha; Peylin, Philippe

2014-05-01

Vegetation is a major carbon sink and is as such a key component of the international response to climate change caused by the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, anthropogenic disturbances like deforestation are the primary mechanism that changes ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources, and are hardly included in the current carbon modelling approaches. Moreover, in tropical regions, the seasonal/interannual variability of carbon fluxes is still uncertain and a weak or even no seasonality is taken into account in global vegetation models. In the context of climate change and mitigation policies like "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries" (REDD), it is particularly important to be able to quantify and forecast the vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes in these regions. The overall objective of the VEGECLIM project is to increase our knowledge on the terrestrial carbon cycle in tropical regions and to improve the forecast of the vegetation dynamics and carbon stocks and fluxes under different climate-change and deforestation scenarios. Such an approach aims to determine whether the African terrestrial carbon balance will remain a net sink or could become a carbon source by the end of the century, according to different climate-change and deforestation scenarios. The research strategy is to integrate the information of the land surface characterizations obtained from 13 years of consistent SPOT-VEGETATION time series (land cover, vegetation phenology through vegetation indices such as the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)) as well as in-situ carbon flux data into the process based ORCHIDEE global vegetation model, capable of simulating vegetation dynamics and carbon balance. Key challenge of this project was to bridge the gap between the land cover and the land surface model teams. Several improvements of the ORCHIDEE model have been realized such as a new seasonal leaf dynamics for tropical evergreen forests, the introduction of spatial soil phosphorus to improve the spatial distribution of simulated woody biomass and an assimilation of smoothed seasonal pattern of satellite-based EVI used as a proxy to vegetation productivity. The outputs of the ORCHIDEE simulations over both Amazon and Congo Basins are discussed with regards to the observed phenology by remote sensing.

Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon 'dieback'.

PubMed

Huntingford, Chris; Fisher, Rosie A; Mercado, Lina; Booth, Ben B B; Sitch, Stephen; Harris, Phil P; Cox, Peter M; Jones, Chris D; Betts, Richard A; Malhi, Yadvinder; Harris, Glen R; Collins, Mat; Moorcroft, Paul

2008-05-27

Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specified in the atmosphere component of HadCM3 and their associated influence on predicted surface climate. We then enhance the land surface description and (ii) implement a multilayer canopy light interception model and compare with the simple 'big-leaf' approach used in the original simulations. Finally, (iii) we investigate the effect of changing the method of simulating vegetation dynamics from an area-based model (TRIFFID) to a more complex size- and age-structured approximation of an individual-based model (ecosystem demography). We find that the loss of Amazonian rainforest is robust across the climate uncertainty explored by perturbed physics simulations covering a wide range of global climate sensitivity. The introduction of the refined light interception model leads to an increase in simulated gross plant carbon uptake for the present day, but, with altered respiration, the net effect is a decrease in net primary productivity. However, this does not significantly affect the carbon loss from vegetation and soil as a consequence of future simulated depletion in soil moisture; the Amazon forest is still lost. The introduction of the more sophisticated dynamic vegetation model reduces but does not halt the rate of forest dieback. The potential for human-induced climate change to trigger the loss of Amazon rainforest appears robust within the context of the uncertainties explored in this paper. Some further uncertainties should be explored, particularly with respect to the representation of rooting depth.

Ideas and perspectives: how coupled is the vegetation to the boundary layer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Kauwe, Martin G.; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Knauer, Jürgen; Williams, Christopher A.

2017-10-01

Understanding the sensitivity of transpiration to stomatal conductance is critical to simulating the water cycle. This sensitivity is a function of the degree of coupling between the vegetation and the atmosphere and is commonly expressed by the decoupling factor. The degree of coupling assumed by models varies considerably and has previously been shown to be a major cause of model disagreement when simulating changes in transpiration in response to elevated CO2. The degree of coupling also offers us insight into how different vegetation types control transpiration fluxes, which is fundamental to our understanding of land-atmosphere interactions. To explore this issue, we combined an extensive literature summary from 41 studies with estimates of the decoupling coefficient estimated from FLUXNET data. We found some notable departures from the values previously reported in single-site studies. There was large variability in estimated decoupling coefficients (range 0.05-0.51) for evergreen needleleaf forests. This is a result that was broadly supported by our literature review but contrasts with the early literature which suggests that evergreen needleleaf forests are generally well coupled. Estimates from FLUXNET indicated that evergreen broadleaved forests were the most tightly coupled, differing from our literature review and instead suggesting that it was evergreen needleleaf forests. We also found that the assumption that grasses would be strongly decoupled (due to vegetation stature) was only true for high precipitation sites. These results were robust to assumptions about aerodynamic conductance and, to a lesser extent, energy balance closure. Thus, these data form a benchmarking metric against which to test model assumptions about coupling. Our results identify a clear need to improve the quantification of the processes involved in scaling from the leaf to the whole ecosystem. Progress could be made with targeted measurement campaigns at flux sites and greater site characteristic information across the FLUXNET network.

Combining Multi-Source Remotely Sensed Data and a Process-Based Model for Forest Aboveground Biomass Updating.

PubMed

Lu, Xiaoman; Zheng, Guang; Miller, Colton; Alvarado, Ernesto

2017-09-08

Monitoring and understanding the spatio-temporal variations of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is a key basis to quantitatively assess the carbon sequestration capacity of a forest ecosystem. To map and update forest AGB in the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) of China, this work proposes a physical-based approach. Based on the baseline forest AGB from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images in 2008, we dynamically updated the annual forest AGB from 2009 to 2012 by adding the annual AGB increment (ABI) obtained from the simulated daily and annual net primary productivity (NPP) using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model. The 2012 result was validated by both field- and aerial laser scanning (ALS)-based AGBs. The predicted forest AGB for 2012 estimated from the process-based model can explain 31% ( n = 35, p < 0.05, RMSE = 2.20 kg/m²) and 85% ( n = 100, p < 0.01, RMSE = 1.71 kg/m²) of variation in field- and ALS-based forest AGBs, respectively. However, due to the saturation of optical remote sensing-based spectral signals and contribution of understory vegetation, the BEPS-based AGB tended to underestimate/overestimate the AGB for dense/sparse forests. Generally, our results showed that the remotely sensed forest AGB estimates could serve as the initial carbon pool to parameterize the process-based model for NPP simulation, and the combination of the baseline forest AGB and BEPS model could effectively update the spatiotemporal distribution of forest AGB.

Combining Multi-Source Remotely Sensed Data and a Process-Based Model for Forest Aboveground Biomass Updating

PubMed Central

Lu, Xiaoman; Zheng, Guang; Miller, Colton

2017-01-01

Monitoring and understanding the spatio-temporal variations of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is a key basis to quantitatively assess the carbon sequestration capacity of a forest ecosystem. To map and update forest AGB in the Greater Khingan Mountains (GKM) of China, this work proposes a physical-based approach. Based on the baseline forest AGB from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images in 2008, we dynamically updated the annual forest AGB from 2009 to 2012 by adding the annual AGB increment (ABI) obtained from the simulated daily and annual net primary productivity (NPP) using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model. The 2012 result was validated by both field- and aerial laser scanning (ALS)-based AGBs. The predicted forest AGB for 2012 estimated from the process-based model can explain 31% (n = 35, p < 0.05, RMSE = 2.20 kg/m2) and 85% (n = 100, p < 0.01, RMSE = 1.71 kg/m2) of variation in field- and ALS-based forest AGBs, respectively. However, due to the saturation of optical remote sensing-based spectral signals and contribution of understory vegetation, the BEPS-based AGB tended to underestimate/overestimate the AGB for dense/sparse forests. Generally, our results showed that the remotely sensed forest AGB estimates could serve as the initial carbon pool to parameterize the process-based model for NPP simulation, and the combination of the baseline forest AGB and BEPS model could effectively update the spatiotemporal distribution of forest AGB. PMID:28885556

A new approach to predict soil temperature under vegetated surfaces.

PubMed

Dolschak, Klaus; Gartner, Karl; Berger, Torsten W

2015-12-01

In this article, the setup and the application of an empirical model, based on Newton's law of cooling, capable to predict daily mean soil temperature ( T soil ) under vegetated surfaces, is described. The only input variable, necessary to run the model, is a time series of daily mean air temperature. The simulator employs 9 empirical parameters, which were estimated by inverse modeling. The model, which primarily addresses forested sites, incorporates the effect of snow cover and soil freezing on soil temperature. The model was applied to several temperate forest sites, managing the split between Central Europe (Austria) and the United States (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts; Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire), aiming to cover a broad range of site characteristics. Investigated stands differ fundamentally in stand composition, elevation, exposition, annual mean temperature, precipitation regime, as well as in the duration of winter snow cover. At last, to explore the limits of the formulation, the simulator was applied to non-forest sites (Illinois), where soil temperature was recorded under short cut grass. The model was parameterized, specifically to site and measurement depth. After calibration of the model, an evaluation was performed, using ~50 % of the available data. In each case, the simulator was capable to deliver a feasible prediction of soil temperature in the validation time interval. To evaluate the practical suitability of the simulator, the minimum amount of soil temperature point measurements, necessary to yield expedient model performance was determined. In the investigated case 13-20 point observations, uniformly distributed within an 11-year timeframe, have been proven sufficient to yield sound model performance (root mean square error <0.9 °C, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency >0.97). This makes the model suitable for the application on sites, where the information on soil temperature is discontinuous or scarce.

Assessing the protection function of Alpine forest ecosystems using BGC modelling theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pötzelsberger, E.; Hasenauer, H.; Petritsch, R.; Pietsch, S. A.

2009-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the protection function of forests in Alpine areas by modelling the flux dynamics (water, carbon, nutrients) within a watershed as they may depend on the vegetation pattern and forest management impacts. The application case for this study was the catchment Schmittenbach, located in the province of Salzburg. Data available covered the hydrology (rainfall measurements from 1981 to 1998 and runoff measurements at the river Schmittenbach from 1981 to 2005), vegetation dynamics (currently 69% forest, predominantly Norway Spruce). The method of simulating the forest growth and water outflow was validated. For simulations of the key ecosystem processes (e.g. photosynthesis, carbon and nitrogen allocation in the different plant parts, litter fall, mineralisation, tree water uptake, transpiration, rainfall interception, evaporation, snow accumulation and snow melt, outflow of spare water) the biogeochemical ecosystem model Biome-BGC was applied. Relevant model extensions were the tree species specific parameter sets and the improved thinning regime. The model is sensitive to site characteristics and needs daily weather data and information on the atmospheric composition, which makes it sensitive to higher CO2-levels and climate change. For model validation 53 plots were selected covering the full range of site quality and stand age. Tree volume and soil was measured and compared with the respective model results. The outflow for the watershed was predicted by combining the simulated forest-outflow (derived from plot-outflow) with the outflow from the non-forest area (calculated with a fixed outflow/rainfall coefficient (OC)). The analysis of production and water related model outputs indicated that mechanistic modelling can be used as a tool to assess the performance of Alpine protection forests. The Water Use Efficiency (WUE), the ratio of Net primary production (NPP) and Transpiration, was found the highest for juvenile stands (≤20yr). The WUE was also found directly proportional to the elevation. A positive correlation between annual outflow and the WUE could be shown. Yearly outflow predictions for the whole catchment for the years 1981-2005 showed no significant difference from the measurements. Key words: protection forests, outflow, flux dynamics, BGC-Modelling

Simulating the recent impacts of multiple biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling across the United States.

PubMed

Kautz, Markus; Anthoni, Peter; Meddens, Arjan J H; Pugh, Thomas A M; Arneth, Almut

2018-05-01

Biotic disturbances (BDs, for example, insects, pathogens, and wildlife herbivory) substantially affect boreal and temperate forest ecosystems globally. However, accurate impact assessments comprising larger spatial scales are lacking to date although these are critically needed given the expected disturbance intensification under a warming climate. Hence, our quantitative knowledge on current and future BD impacts, for example, on forest carbon (C) cycling, is strongly limited. We extended a dynamic global vegetation model to simulate ecosystem response to prescribed tree mortality and defoliation due to multiple biotic agents across United States forests during the period 1997-2015, and quantified the BD-induced vegetation C loss, that is, C fluxes from live vegetation to dead organic matter pools. Annual disturbance fractions separated by BD type (tree mortality and defoliation) and agent (bark beetles, defoliator insects, other insects, pathogens, and other biotic agents) were calculated at 0.5° resolution from aerial-surveyed data and applied within the model. Simulated BD-induced C fluxes totaled 251.6 Mt C (annual mean: 13.2 Mt C year -1 , SD ±7.3 Mt C year -1 between years) across the study domain, to which tree mortality contributed 95% and defoliation 5%. Among BD agents, bark beetles caused most C fluxes (61%), and total insect-induced C fluxes were about five times larger compared to non-insect agents, for example, pathogens and wildlife. Our findings further demonstrate that BD-induced C cycle impacts (i) displayed high spatio-temporal variability, (ii) were dominated by different agents across BD types and regions, and (iii) were comparable in magnitude to fire-induced impacts. This study provides the first ecosystem model-based assessment of BD-induced impacts on forest C cycling at the continental scale and going beyond single agent-host systems, thus allowing for comparisons across regions, BD types, and agents. Ultimately, a perspective on the potential and limitations of a more process-based incorporation of multiple BDs in ecosystem models is offered. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate-biomes, pedo-biomes and pyro-biomes: which world view explains the tropical forest - savanna boundary in South America?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langan, Liam; Higgins, Steven; Scheiter, Simon

2015-04-01

Elucidating the drivers of broad vegetation formations improves our understanding of earth system functioning. The biome, defined primarily by the dominance of a particular growth strategy, is commonly employed to group vegetation into similar units. Predicting tropical forest and savanna biome boundaries in South America has proven difficult. Process based DGVMs (Dynamic global vegetation models) are our best tool to simulate vegetation patterns, make predictions for future changes and test theory, however, many DGVMs fail to accurately simulate the spatial distribution or indeed presence of the South American savanna biome which can result in large differences in modelled ecosystem structural properties. Evidence suggests fire plays a significant role in mediating these forest and savanna biome boundaries, however, fire alone does not appear to be sufficient to predict these boundaries in South America using DGVMs hinting at the presence of one or more missing environmental factors. We hypothesise that soil depth, which affects plant available water by determining maximum storage potential and influences temporal availability, may be one of these missing environmental factors. To test our hypothesis we use a novel vegetation model, the aDGVM2. This model has been specifically designed to allow plant trait strategies, constrained by trade-offs between traits, evolve based on the abiotic and biotic conditions where the resulting community trait suites are emergent properties of model dynamics. Furthermore it considers root biomass in multiple soil layers and therefore allows the consideration of alternative rooting strategies, which in turn allows us to explore in more detail the role of soil hydraulic factors in controlling biome boundary distributions. We find that changes in soil depth, interacting with fire, affect the relative dominance of tree and grass strategies and thus the presence and spatial distribution of forest and savanna biomes in South America. Using the ISRIC-WISE soil depth dataset we show that applying spatially variable soil depth, in contrast to globally fixed soil depth, improves the accuracy with which we predict the South American savanna biome distribution when compared to multiple contemporary biome maps and that the emergence of the savanna biome results in markedly different ecosystem structural properties such as tree height, tree cover and above ground biomass. Many of these areas are capable of supporting forest and savanna biome states and have been deemed bi-stable areas, we show that, in these bi-stable areas the emergent tree community trait suite differs markedly between forest and savanna biome states.

Leaf-traits and growth allometry explain competition and differences in response to climatic change in a temperate forest landscape: a simulation study

PubMed Central

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong

2011-01-01

Background and Aims The ability to simulate plant competition accurately is essential for plant functional type (PFT)-based models used in climate-change studies, yet gaps and uncertainties remain in our understanding of the details of the competition mechanisms and in ecosystem responses at a landscape level. This study examines secondary succession in a temperate deciduous forest in eastern China with the aim of determining if competition between tree types can be explained by differences in leaf ecophysiological traits and growth allometry, and whether ecophysiological traits and habitat spatial configurations among PFTs differentiate their responses to climate change. Methods A temperate deciduous broadleaved forest in eastern China was studied, containing two major vegetation types dominated by Quercus liaotungensis (OAK) and by birch/poplar (Betula platyphylla and Populus davidiana; BIP), respectively. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (TESim) suite of models was used to examine carbon and water dynamics using parameters measured at the site, and the model was evaluated against long-term data collected at the site. Key Results Simulations indicated that a higher assimilation rate for the BIP vegetation than OAK led to the former's dominance during early successional stages with relatively low competition. In middle/late succession with intensive competition for below-ground resources, BIP, with its lower drought tolerance/resistance and smaller allocation to leaves/roots, gave way to OAK. At landscape scale, predictions with increased temperature extrapolated from existing weather records resulted in increased average net primary productivity (NPP; +19 %), heterotrophic respiration (+23 %) and net ecosystem carbon balance (+17 %). The BIP vegetation in higher and cooler habitats showed 14 % greater sensitivity to increased temperature than the OAK at lower and warmer locations. Conclusions Drought tolerance/resistance and morphology-related allocation strategy (i.e. more allocation to leaves/roots) played key roles in the competition between the vegetation types. The overall site-average impacts of increased temperature on NPP and carbon stored in plants were found to be positive, despite negative effects of increased respiration and soil water stress, with such impacts being more significant for BIP located in higher and cooler habitats. PMID:21835816

Seasonal variations in rainfall-induced soil erosion from forest roads in a Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordán, Antonio; Zavala, Lorena M.; Gil, Juan

2014-05-01

1. INTRODUCTION Land use change and the development of rural and eco-tourist activities have contributed to a strong development of forest roads in Spain during recent decades. Most of forest roads cause significant hydrological and geomorphological impacts at different scales, altering the runoff-runon patterns, the direction and properties of runoff water, and subsurface water flow. Some of these effects are caused by the removal of native vegetation from backslopes (Martínez-Zavala et al., 2008), which contributes to increased soil erosion and sediment yield in areas where natural soil erosion risk is usually low (Jordán and Martínez-Zavala, 2008; Jordán-López et al., 2009). Rainfall intensity, soil moisture, slope and vegetation cover are key factors for erosion risk in forest roads (Jordán and Martínez-Zavala, 2008; Cao et al., 2013). 2. METHODS Sixty backslopes with plant cover varying between dense shrubs and bare soil were selected. Rainfall simulations (90 mm/h during 20 minutes) were performed in winter (December 2012 - January 2013) and summer (August - September 2013) to study the effect of rainstorms at the end and beginning of the rainy season. Surface runoff was collected to determine runoff rates and sediment yields. Plant cover, rock fragment cover and the area covered by biological crusts were determined at each plot. Slope was determined with a portable clinometer (all selected plots were in the range 41-76%). 3. RESULTS Although soil loss was increased in winter, when soil moisture is higher, small differences were observed at vegetation cover above 75%. Plant cover above 40% considerably reduced sediment yield and runoff flow. In contrast, differences triggered between different plots with decreasing vegetation cover. In bare areas, rock fragments and biological crusts (mosses, lichens, liverworts and fungi) caused great differences between bare areas both during summer and winter periods. REFERENCES Cao, L., Zhang, K., Dai, H., Liang, Y. 2013. Modeling interrill erosion on unpaved roads in the Loess Plateau of China, Land Degradation & Development. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2253 Jordán, A., Martínez-Zavala, L. 2008. Soil loss and runoff rates on unpaved forest roads in southern Spain after simulated rainfall. Forest Ecology and Management 255, 913-919. DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2007.10.002. Jordán-López, A., Martínez-Zavala, L., Bellinfante, N. 2009. Impact of different parts of unpaved forest roads on runoff and sediment yield in a Mediterranean area. Science of the Total Environment 407, 937-944. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.09.047. Martínez-Zavala, L., Jordán López, A., Bellinfante, N. 2008. Seasonal variability of runoff and soil loss on forest road backslopes under simulated rainfall. Catena 74, 73-79. DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2008.03.006.

Parameterisation of Biome BGC to assess forest ecosystems in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Sishir; Pietsch, Stephan A.

2010-05-01

African forest ecosystems are an important environmental and economic resource. Several studies show that tropical forests are critical to society as economic, environmental and societal resources. Tropical forests are carbon dense and thus play a key role in climate change mitigation. Unfortunately, the response of tropical forests to environmental change is largely unknown owing to insufficient spatially extensive observations. Developing regions like Africa where records of forest management for long periods are unavailable the process-based ecosystem simulation model - BIOME BGC could be a suitable tool to explain forest ecosystem dynamics. This ecosystem simulation model uses descriptive input parameters to establish the physiology, biochemistry, structure, and allocation patterns within vegetation functional types, or biomes. Undocumented parameters for larger-resolution simulations are currently the major limitations to regional modelling in African forest ecosystems. This study was conducted to document input parameters for BIOME-BGC for major natural tropical forests in the Congo basin. Based on available literature and field measurements updated values for turnover and mortality, allometry, carbon to nitrogen ratios, allocation of plant material to labile, cellulose, and lignin pools, tree morphology and other relevant factors were assigned. Daily climate input data for the model applications were generated using the statistical weather generator MarkSim. The forest was inventoried at various sites and soil samples of corresponding stands across Gabon were collected. Carbon and nitrogen in the collected soil samples were determined from soil analysis. The observed tree volume, soil carbon and soil nitrogen were then compared with the simulated model outputs to evaluate the model performance. Furthermore, the simulation using Congo Basin specific parameters and generalised BIOME BGC parameters for tropical evergreen broadleaved tree species were also executed and the simulated results compared. Once the model was optimised for forests in the Congo basin it was validated against observed tree volume, soil carbon and soil nitrogen from a set of independent plots.

Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

[Canopy interception characteristics of main vegetation types in Liupan Mountains of China].

PubMed

Xu, Li-hong; Shi, Zhong-jie; Wang, Yan-hui; Xiong, Wei; Yu, Peng-tao

2010-10-01

Based on field observation and modeling analysis, this paper studied the canopy interception, interception capacity, and some parameters for interception modeling of main forest types in Liupan Mountains of China. For the test main forest types, the ratio of their canopy interception to precipitation ranged from 8.59% to 17.94%, throughfall was more than 80%, and stemflow ranged from 0.23% to 3.10%. The canopy interception capacity was 0.78-1.88 mm, among which, leaf interception capacity was 0.62-1.63 mm, and stem interception capacity was 0.13-0.29 mm. Conifer forest had a higher canopy interception capacity than broad-leaved forest. The modified model considering the change of leaf area index, which was used in this paper, had a higher simulating precision than the interception model used before. The simulation results for Betula albo-sinensis forest, Pinus armandii forest, Prunus shrub, and Quercus liaotungensis-Tilia paucicostata forest were good, but those for Quercus liaotungensis forest, Pinus tabulaeformis forest, and Acer tetramerum and Euonymus sanguineus shrub were bad, which might be related to the differences in canopy structure, leaf area index, and precipitation characteristics.

Echohydrological implications of drought for forests in the United States

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Chelcy Ford Miniat; Charles H. Luce; Heidi Asbjornsen; Peter V. Caldwell; John L. Campbell; Gordon E. Grant; Daniel J. Isaak; Steven P. Loheide; Ge Sun

2016-01-01

The relationships among drought, surface water flow, and groundwater recharge are not straightforward for most forest ecosystems due to the strong role that vegetation plays in the forest water balance. Hydrologic responses to drought can be either mitigated or exacerbated by forest vegetation depending upon vegetation water use and how forest population dynamics...

Towards ground-truthing of spaceborne estimates of above-ground life biomass and leaf area index in tropical rain forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, P.; Huth, A.

2010-08-01

The canopy height h of forests is a key variable which can be obtained using air- or spaceborne remote sensing techniques such as radar interferometry or LIDAR. If new allometric relationships between canopy height and the biomass stored in the vegetation can be established this would offer the possibility for a global monitoring of the above-ground carbon content on land. In the absence of adequate field data we use simulation results of a tropical rain forest growth model to propose what degree of information might be generated from canopy height and thus to enable ground-truthing of potential future satellite observations. We here analyse the correlation between canopy height in a tropical rain forest with other structural characteristics, such as above-ground life biomass (AGB) (and thus carbon content of vegetation) and leaf area index (LAI) and identify how correlation and uncertainty vary for two different spatial scales. The process-based forest growth model FORMIND2.0 was applied to simulate (a) undisturbed forest growth and (b) a wide range of possible disturbance regimes typically for local tree logging conditions for a tropical rain forest site on Borneo (Sabah, Malaysia) in South-East Asia. In both undisturbed and disturbed forests AGB can be expressed as a power-law function of canopy height h (AGB = a · hb) with an r2 ~ 60% if data are analysed in a spatial resolution of 20 m × 20 m (0.04 ha, also called plot size). The correlation coefficient of the regression is becoming significant better in the disturbed forest sites (r2 = 91%) if data are analysed hectare wide. There seems to exist no functional dependency between LAI and canopy height, but there is also a linear correlation (r2 ~ 60%) between AGB and the area fraction of gaps in which the canopy is highly disturbed. A reasonable agreement of our results with observations is obtained from a comparison of the simulations with permanent sampling plot (PSP) data from the same region and with the large-scale forest inventory in Lambir. We conclude that the spaceborne remote sensing techniques such as LIDAR and radar interferometry have the potential to quantify the carbon contained in the vegetation, although this calculation contains due to the heterogeneity of the forest landscape structural uncertainties which restrict future applications to spatial averages of about one hectare in size. The uncertainties in AGB for a given canopy height are here 20-40% (95% confidence level) corresponding to a standard deviation of less than ± 10%. This uncertainty on the 1 ha-scale is much smaller than in the analysis of 0.04 ha-scale data. At this small scale (0.04 ha) AGB can only be calculated out of canopy height with an uncertainty which is at least of the magnitude of the signal itself due to the natural spatial heterogeneity of these forests.

Diversity in plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests.

PubMed

Xu, Xiangtao; Medvigy, David; Powers, Jennifer S; Becknell, Justin M; Guan, Kaiyu

2016-10-01

We assessed whether diversity in plant hydraulic traits can explain the observed diversity in plant responses to water stress in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) was updated with a trait-driven mechanistic plant hydraulic module, as well as novel drought-phenology and plant water stress schemes. Four plant functional types were parameterized on the basis of meta-analysis of plant hydraulic traits. Simulations from both the original and the updated ED2 were evaluated against 5 yr of field data from a Costa Rican SDTF site and remote-sensing data over Central America. The updated model generated realistic plant hydraulic dynamics, such as leaf water potential and stem sap flow. Compared with the original ED2, predictions from our novel trait-driven model matched better with observed growth, phenology and their variations among functional groups. Most notably, the original ED2 produced unrealistically small leaf area index (LAI) and underestimated cumulative leaf litter. Both of these biases were corrected by the updated model. The updated model was also better able to simulate spatial patterns of LAI dynamics in Central America. Plant hydraulic traits are intercorrelated in SDTFs. Mechanistic incorporation of plant hydraulic traits is necessary for the simulation of spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation dynamics in SDTFs in vegetation models. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Effect of tree thinning and skidding trails on hydrological connectivity in two Japanese forest catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Vicente, Manuel; Sun, Xinchao; Onda, Yuichi; Kato, Hiroaki; Gomi, Takashi; Hiraoka, Marino

2017-09-01

Land use composition and patterns influence the hydrological response in mountainous and forest catchments. In plantation forest, management operations (FMO) modify the spatial and temporal dynamics of overland flow processes. However, we found a gap in the literature focussed on modelling hydrological connectivity (HC) in plantation forest under different FMO. In this study, we simulated HC in two steep paired forest subcatchments (K2 and K3, 33.2 ha), composed of Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa Endl.) and Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica D. Don) plantations (59% of the total area) against a tree thinning intensity of 50% at different time. Additionally, construction of new skidding trails and vegetation recovery was simulated on five thinning-based scenarios that covered a 40-month test period (July 2010 - October 2013). As a future scenario, six check-dams located in the main streams were proposed to reduce sediment and radionuclide delivery. An updated version of Borselli's index of runoff and sediment connectivity was run, using the D-infinity flow accumulation algorithm and exploiting three 0.5-m resolution digital elevation models. On the basis of the pre-FMO scenario, HC increased at catchment scale owing to tree thinning and the new skidding trails. This change was more noticeable within the area affected by the FMO, where HC increased by 11.4% and 10.5% in the cypress and cedar plantations in K2 respectively and by 8.8% in the cedar plantation in K3. At hillslope plot and stream scales, the evolution in the values of HC was less evident, except the increment (by 5.4%) observed in the streams at K2 after the FMO. Progressive vegetation recovery after the FMO triggered a slight reduction of connectivity in all compartments of both subcatchments. Forest roads and especially skidding trails presented the highest values of HC, appearing as the most efficient features connecting the different vegetation patches with the stream network. The spatial and temporal evolution of HC over the five past scenarios correlated well with the observed changes in runoff yield, as well as with the available values of rainfall interception and throughfall before, during, and after the FMO. The simulation of the proposed scenario recommends the construction of check-dams as effective landscape features to somewhat reduce HC and thus to decrease the sediment and radionuclide delivery rates from the two subcatchments.

Simulation of Sentinel-2A Red Edge Bands with RPAS Based Multispectral Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davids, Corine; Storvold, Rune; Haarpaintner, Jorg; Arnason, Kolbeinn

2016-08-01

Very high spatial and spectral resolution multispectral data was collected over the Hallormstađur test site in eastern Iceland using a fixed wing remotely piloted aerial system as part of the EU FP7 project North State (www.northstatefp7.eu). The North State project uses forest variable estimates derived from optical and radar satellite data as either input or validation for carbon flux models. The RPAS data from the Hallormsstađur forest test site in Iceland is here used to simulate Landsat and Sentinel-2A data and to explore the advantages of the new Sentinel-2A red edge bands for forest vegetation mapping. Simple supervised classification shows that the inclusion of the red edge bands improves the tree species classification considerably.

Plant toxins and trophic cascades alter fire regime and succession on a boral forest landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, Zhilan; Alfaro-Murillo, Jorge A.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Schmidt, Jennifer; Barga, Matthew; Zheng, Yiqiang; Ahmad Tamrin, Muhammad Hanis B.; Olson, Mark; Glaser, Tim; Kielland, Knut; Chapin, F. Stuart; Bryant, John

2012-01-01

Two models were integrated in order to study the effect of plant toxicity and a trophic cascade on forest succession and fire patterns across a boreal landscape in central Alaska. One of the models, ALFRESCO, is a cellular automata model that stochastically simulates transitions from spruce dominated 1 km2 spatial cells to deciduous woody vegetation based on stochastic fires, and from deciduous woody vegetation to spruce based on age of the cell with some stochastic variation. The other model, the ‘toxin-dependent functional response’ model (TDFRM) simulates woody vegetation types with different levels of toxicity, an herbivore browser (moose) that can forage selectively on these types, and a carnivore (wolf) that preys on the herbivore. Here we replace the simple succession rules in each ALFRESCO cell by plant–herbivore–carnivore dynamics from TDFRM. The central hypothesis tested in the integrated model is that the herbivore, by feeding selectively on low-toxicity deciduous woody vegetation, speeds succession towards high-toxicity evergreens, like spruce. Wolves, by keeping moose populations down, can help slow the succession. Our results confirmed this hypothesis for the model calibrated to the Tanana floodplain of Alaska. We used the model to estimate the effects of different levels of wolf control. Simulations indicated that management reductions in wolf densities could reduce the mean time to transition from deciduous to spruce by more than 15 years, thereby increasing landscape flammability. The integrated model can be useful in estimating ecosystem impacts of wolf control and moose harvesting in central Alaska.

Coexistence of Trees and Grass: Importance of climate and fire within the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuman, J. K.; Fisher, R.; Koven, C.; Knox, R. G.; Andre, B.; Kluzek, E. B.

2017-12-01

Tropical forests are characterized by transition zones where dominance shifts between trees and grasses with some areas exhibiting bistability of the two. The cause of this transition and bistability has been linked to the interacting effects of climate, vegetation structure and fire behavior. Utilizing the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model, and the CESM ESM, we explore the coexistence of trees and grass across the tropics with an active fire regime. FATES has been updated to use a fire module based on Spitfire. FATES-Spitfire tracks fire ignition, spread and impact based on fuel state and combustion. Fire occurs within the model with variable intensity that kills trees according to the combined effects of cambial damage and crown scorch due to flame height and fire intensity. As a size-structured model, FATES allows for variable mortality based on the size of tree cohorts, where larger trees experience lower morality compared to small trees. Results for simulation scenarios where vegetation is represented by all trees, all grass, or a combination of competing trees and grass are compared to assess changes in biomass, fire regime and tree-grass coexistence. Within the forest-grass transition area there is a critical time during which grass fuels fire spread and prevents the establishment of trees. If trees are able to escape mortality a tree-grass bistable area is successful. The ability to simulate the bistability and transition of trees and grass throughout the tropics is critical to representing vegetation dynamics in response to changing climate and CO2.

An improved SWAT vegetation growth module and its evaluation for four tropical ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alemayehu, Tadesse; van Griensven, Ann; Taddesse Woldegiorgis, Befekadu; Bauwens, Willy

2017-09-01

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a globally applied river basin ecohydrological model used in a wide spectrum of studies, ranging from land use change and climate change impacts studies to research for the development of the best water management practices. However, SWAT has limitations in simulating the seasonal growth cycles for trees and perennial vegetation in the tropics, where rainfall rather than temperature is the dominant plant growth controlling factor. Our goal is to improve the vegetation growth module of SWAT for simulating the vegetation variables - such as the leaf area index (LAI) - for tropical ecosystems. Therefore, we present a modified SWAT version for the tropics (SWAT-T) that uses a straightforward but robust soil moisture index (SMI) - a quotient of rainfall (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETr) - to dynamically initiate a new growth cycle within a predefined period. Our results for the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania) show that the SWAT-T-simulated LAI corresponds well with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI for evergreen forest, savanna grassland and shrubland. This indicates that the SMI is reliable for triggering a new annual growth cycle. The water balance components (evapotranspiration and streamflow) simulated by the SWAT-T exhibit a good agreement with remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration (ET-RS) and observed streamflow. The SWAT-T model, with the proposed vegetation growth module for tropical ecosystems, can be a robust tool for simulating the vegetation growth dynamics in hydrologic models in tropical regions.

Vegetation Response to Upper Pliocene Glacial/Interglacial Cyclicity in the Central Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie

1993-09-01

New detailed pollen analysis of the lower part of the Upper Pliocene Semaforo section (Crotone, Italy) documents cyclic behavior of vegetation at the beginning of the Northern Hemisphere glaciations. The competition between four vegetation units (subtropical humid forest, deciduous temperate forest, altitudinal coniferous forest, and open xeric assemblage) probably reflects modifications of vegetation belts at this montane site. Several increases in herbaceous open vegetation regularly alternate with subtropical humid forest, which expresses rapid climatic oscillations. The complete temporal succession—deciduous forest (rich in Quercus), followed by subtropical humid forest (Taxodiaceae and Cathaya), then altitudinal coniferous forest ( Tsuga, Cedrus, Abies, and Picea), and finally herbaceous open vegetation (Graminae, Compositae, and Artemisia )—displays the climatic evolution from warm and humid interglaciation to cold and dry glaciation. It also suggests an independent variation of temperature and humidity, the two main climatic parameters. The vegetation history of southern Calabria recorded in the Semaforo section have been correlated with the ∂ 18O signal established in the Atlantic Ocean.

Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States

Treesearch

Liang Wei; Timothy E. Link; Andrew T. Hudak; John D. Marshall; Kathleen L. Kavanagh; John T. Abatzoglou; Hang Zhou; Robert E. Pangle; Gerald N. Flerchinger

2016-01-01

Annual streamflows have decreased across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years; however, in some watersheds, observed annual flows have increased. Physically based models are useful tools to reveal the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long-term water balances by explicitly simulating the internal...

Impact of revised and potential future albedo estimates on CCSM3 simulations of growing-season surface temperature fields for North America

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; David Y. Hollinger; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bain; Shiyuan. Zhong

2010-01-01

Recently published albedo research has resulted in improved growing-season albedo estimates for forest and grassland vegetation. The impact of these improved estimates on the ability of climate models to simulate growing-season surface temperature patterns is unknown. We have developed a set of current-climate surface temperature scenarios for North America using the...

Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, L.; Harper, A.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Galbraith, D. R.; Imbuzeiro, H. M. A.; Powell, T. L.; Doughty, C.; Levine, N. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Meir, P.; Williams, M.

2015-04-01

Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting climate change across the globe. Changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously result in complex non-linear ecosystem responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf- and canopy-scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (Community Land Model version 3.5 coupled to the Dynamic Global Vegetation model - CLM3.5-DGVM; Ecosystem Demography model version 2 - ED2; the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 - JULES; Simple Biosphere model version 3 - SiB3; and the soil-plant-atmosphere model - SPA) to simulate the responses of leaf- and canopy-scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP) was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation, but all the models were consistent with the prediction that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C cooler than current ambient temperatures. There was greater model-data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) to changes in temperature than in the response to temperature by net photosynthesis (An), stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf area index (LAI). Modelled canopy-scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf-scale fluxes using LAI. At the leaf-scale, the models did not agree on the temperature or magnitude of the optimum points of An, Vcmax or gs, and model variation in these parameters was compensated for by variations in the absolute magnitude of simulated LAI and how it altered with temperature. Across the models, there was, however, consistency in two leaf-scale responses: (1) change in An with temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes; and (2) intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE) increased with temperature, especially when combined with drought. These results suggest that even up to fairly extreme temperature increases from ambient levels (+6 °C), simulated photosynthesis becomes increasingly sensitive to gs and remains less sensitive to biochemical changes. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change, the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need to be validated at both leaf- and canopy-scales to improve accuracy and consistency in the quantification of processes within and across an ecosystem.

Vegetation monitoring for Guatemala: a comparison between simulated VIIRS and MODIS satellite data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boken, Vijendra K.; Easson, Gregory L.; Rowland, James

2010-01-01

The advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are being widely used for vegetation monitoring across the globe. However, sensors will discontinue collecting these data in the near future. National Aeronautics and Space Administration is planning to launch a new sensor, visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS), to continue to provide satellite data for vegetation monitoring. This article presents a case study of Guatemala and compares the simulated VIIRS-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with MODIS-NDVI for four different dates each in 2003 and 2005. The dissimilarity between VIIRS-NDVI and MODIS-NDVI was examined on the basis of the percent difference, the two-tailed student's t-test, and the coefficient of determination, R 2. The per cent difference was found to be within 3%, the p-value ranged between 0.52 and 0.99, and R 2 exceeded 0.88 for all major types of vegetation (basic grains, rubber, sugarcane, coffee and forests) found in Guatemala. It was therefore concluded that VIIRS will be almost equally capable of vegetation monitoring as MODIS.

Dissimilar responses of larch stands in northern Siberia to increasing temperatures-a field and simulation based study.

PubMed

Wieczorek, Mareike; Kruse, Stefan; Epp, Laura S; Kolmogorov, Alexei; Nikolaev, Anatoly N; Heinrich, Ingo; Jeltsch, Florian; Pestryakova, Lyudmila A; Zibulski, Romy; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2017-09-01

Arctic and alpine treelines worldwide differ in their reactions to climate change. A northward advance of or densification within the treeline ecotone will likely influence climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms. In our study, which was conducted in the Taimyr Depression in the North Siberian Lowlands, w present a combined field- and model-based approach helping us to better understand the population processes involved in the responses of the whole treeline ecotone, spanning from closed forest to single-tree tundra, to climate warming. Using information on stand structure, tree age, and seed quality and quantity from seven sites, we investigate effects of intra-specific competition and seed availability on the specific impact of recent climate warming on larch stands. Field data show that tree density is highest in the forest-tundra, and average tree size decreases from closed forest to single-tree tundra. Age-structure analyses indicate that the trees in the closed forest and forest-tundra have been present for at least ~240 yr. At all sites except the most southerly ones, past establishment is positively correlated with regional temperature increase. In the single-tree tundra, however, a change in growth form from krummholz to erect trees, beginning ~130 yr ago, rather than establishment date has been recorded. Seed mass decreases from south to north, while seed quantity increases. Simulations with LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator) further suggest that relative density changes strongly in response to a warming signal in the forest-tundra while intra-specific competition limits densification in the closed forest and seed limitation hinders densification in the single-tree tundra. We find striking differences in strength and timing of responses to recent climate warming. While forest-tundra stands recently densified, recruitment is almost non-existent at the southern and northern end of the ecotone due to autecological processes. Palaeo-treelines may therefore be inappropriate to infer past temperature changes at a fine scale. Moreover, a lagged treeline response to past warming will, via feedback mechanisms, influence climate change in the future. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes.

PubMed

Bachelet, Dominique; Ferschweiler, Ken; Sheehan, Timothy J; Sleeter, Benjamin M; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-12-01

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie-forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122-126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of biotic feedback and harvest management on boreal forest fire activity under climate change.

PubMed

Krawchuk, Meg A; Cumming, Steve G

2011-01-01

Predictions of future fire activity over Canada's boreal forests have primarily been generated from climate data following assumptions that direct effects of weather will stand alone in contributing to changes in burning. However, this assumption needs explicit testing. First, areas recently burned can be less likely to burn again in the near term, and this endogenous regulation suggests the potential for self-limiting, negative biotic feedback to regional climate-driven increases in fire. Second, forest harvest is ongoing, and resulting changes in vegetation structure have been shown to affect fire activity. Consequently, we tested the assumption that fire activity will be driven by changes in fire weather without regulation by biotic feedback or regional harvest-driven changes in vegetation structure in the mixedwood boreal forest of Alberta, Canada, using a simulation experiment that includes the interaction of fire, stand dynamics, climate change, and clear cut harvest management. We found that climate change projected with fire weather indices calculated from the Canadian Regional Climate Model increased fire activity, as expected, and our simulations established evidence that the magnitude of regional increase in fire was sufficient to generate negative feedback to subsequent fire activity. We illustrate a 39% (1.39-fold) increase in fire initiation and 47% (1.47-fold) increase in area burned when climate and stand dynamics were included in simulations, yet 48% (1.48-fold) and 61% (1.61-fold) increases, respectively, when climate was considered alone. Thus, although biotic feedbacks reduced burned area estimates in important ways, they were secondary to the direct effect of climate on fire. We then show that ongoing harvest management in this region changed landscape composition in a way that led to reduced fire activity, even in the context of climate change. Although forest harvesting resulted in decreased regional fire activity when compared to unharvested conditions, forest composition and age structure was shifted substantially, illustrating a trade-off between management goals to minimize fire and conservation goals to emulate natural disturbance.

Fire risk in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Seth Howard

Fire is an integral part of ecosystems in the western United States. Decades of fire suppression have led to (unnaturally) large accumulations of fuel in some forest communities, such as the lower elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada. Urban sprawl into fire prone chaparral vegetation in southern California has put human lives at risk and the decreased fire return intervals have put the vegetation community at risk of type conversion. This research examines the factors affecting fire risk in two of the dominant landscapes in the state of California, chaparral and inland coniferous forests. Live fuel moisture (LFM) is important for fire ignition, spread rate, and intensity in chaparral. LFM maps were generated for Los Angeles County by developing and then inverting robust cross-validated regression equations from time series field data and vegetation indices (VIs) and phenological metrics from MODIS data. Fire fuels, including understory fuels which are not visible to remote sensing instruments, were mapped in Yosemite National Park using the random forests decision tree algorithm and climatic, topographic, remotely sensed, and fire history variables. Combining the disparate data sources served to improve classification accuracies. The models were inverted to produce maps of fuel models and fuel amounts, and these showed that fire fuel amounts are highest in the low elevation forests that have been most affected by fire suppression impacting the natural fire regime. Wildland fires in chaparral commonly burn in late summer or fall when LFM is near its annual low, however, the Jesusita Fire burned in early May of 2009, when LFM was still relatively high. The HFire fire spread model was used to simulate the growth of the Jesusita Fire using LFM maps derived from imagery acquired at the time of the fire and imagery acquired in late August to determine how much different the fire would have been if it had occurred later in the year. Simulated fires were 1.5 times larger, and the fire reached the wildland urban interface three hours earlier, when using August LFM.

Improvement and extension of a radar forest backscattering model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonett, David S.; Wang, Yong

1989-01-01

Radar modeling of mangal forest stands, in the Sundarbans area of Southern Bangladesh, was developed. The modeling employs radar system parameters with forest data on tree height, spacing, biomass, species combinations, and water (including slightly conductive water), content both in leaves and trunks of the mangal. For Sundri and Gewa tropical mangal forests, six model components are proposed, which are required to explain the contributions of various forest species combinations in the attenuation and scattering of mangal vegetated nonflooded or flooded surfaces. Statistical data of simulated images were compared with those of SIR-B images both to refine the modeling procedures and to appropriately characterize the model output. The possibility of delineation of flooded or nonflooded boundaries is discussed.

Carbon storage, timber production, and biodiversity: comparing ecosystem services with multi-criteria decision analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwenk, W. Scott; Donovan, Therese; Keeton, William S.; Nunery, Jared S.

2012-01-01

Increasingly, land managers seek ways to manage forests for multiple ecosystem services and functions, yet considerable challenges exist in comparing disparate services and balancing trade-offs among them. We applied multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and forest simulation models to simultaneously consider three objectives: (1) storing carbon, (2) producing timber and wood products, and (3) sustaining biodiversity. We used the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) applied to 42 northern hardwood sites to simulate forest development over 100 years and to estimate carbon storage and timber production. We estimated biodiversity implications with occupancy models for 51 terrestrial bird species that were linked to FVS outputs. We simulated four alternative management prescriptions that spanned a range of harvesting intensities and forest structure retention. We found that silvicultural approaches emphasizing less frequent harvesting and greater structural retention could be expected to achieve the greatest net carbon storage but also produce less timber. More intensive prescriptions would enhance biodiversity because positive responses of early successional species exceeded negative responses of late successional species within the heavily forested study area. The combinations of weights assigned to objectives had a large influence on which prescriptions were scored as optimal. Overall, we found that a diversity of silvicultural approaches is likely to be preferable to any single approach, emphasizing the need for landscape-scale management to provide a full range of ecosystem goods and services. Our analytical framework that combined MCDA with forest simulation modeling was a powerful tool in understanding trade-offs among management objectives and how they can be simultaneously accommodated.

Opportunities and challenges to conserve water on the landscape in snow-dominated forests: The quest for the radiative minima and more...

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Link, T. E.; Kumar, M.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Seyednasrollah, B.; Ellis, C. R.; Lawler, R.; Essery, R.

2012-12-01

In mountainous, forested environments, vegetation exerts a strong control on snowcover dynamics that affect ecohydrological processes, streamflow regimes, and riparian health. Snowcover deposition and ablation patterns in forests are controlled by a complex combination of canopy interception processes coupled with radiative and turbulent heat flux patterns related to topographic and canopy cover variations. In seasonal snow environments, snowcover ablation dynamics in forests are dominated by net radiation. Recent research indicates that in small canopy gaps a net radiation minima relative to both open and forested environments can occur, but depends strongly on solar angle, gap size, slope, canopy height and stem density. The optimal gap size to minimize radiation to snow was estimated to have a diameter between 1 and 2 times the surrounding vegetation height. Physically-based snowmelt simulations indicate that gaps may increase SWE and desynchronize snowmelt by approximately 3 weeks between north and south facing slopes, relative to undisturbed forests. On east and west facing slopes, small gaps cause melt to be slightly delayed relative to intact forests, and have a minimal effect on melt synchronicity between slopes. Recent research focused on canopy thinning also indicates that a net radiation minima occurs in canopies of intermediate densities. Physically-based radiative transfer simulations using a discrete tree-based model indicate that in mid-latitude level forests, the annually-integrated radiative minima occurs at a tree spacing of 2.65 relative to the canopy height. The radiative minima was found to occur in denser forests on south-facing slopes and sparser forests on north-facing slopes. The radiative minimums in thinned forests are controlled by solar angle, crown geometry and density, tree spacing, slope, and aspect. These results indicate that both gap and homogeneous forest thinning may be used to reduce snowmelt rates or alter melt synchronicity, but the exact configuration will be highly spatially variable. Development of management strategies to conserve water on the landscape to enhance forest and riparian health in a changing climate must also rigorously evaluate the effects of canopy thinning and specific hydrometeorological conditions on net radiation, turbulent fluxes, and snow interception processes.

A multi-proxy record of hydroclimate, vegetation, fire, and post-settlement impacts for a subalpine plateau, Central Rocky Mountains U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Lesleigh; Brunelle, Andrea; Thompson, Robert S.

2015-01-01

Apparent changes in vegetation distribution, fire, and other disturbance regimes throughout western North America have prompted investigations of the relative importance of human activities and climate change as potential causal mechanisms. Assessing the effects of Euro-American settlement is difficult because climate changes occur on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and require longer time perspectives than historic observations can provide. Here, we report vegetation and environmental changes over the past ~13,000 years as recorded in a sediment record from Bison Lake, a subalpine lake on a high plateau in northwestern Colorado. Results are based on multiple independent proxies, which include pollen, charcoal, and elemental geochemistry, and are compared with previously reported interpretations of hydroclimatic changes from oxygen isotope ratios. The pollen data indicate a slowly changing vegetation sequence from sagebrush steppe during the late glacial to coniferous forest through the late Holocene. The most dramatic vegetation changes of the Holocene occurred during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA) and ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) with rapid replacement of conifer forest by grassland followed by an equally rapid return to conifer forest. Late Holocene vegetation responses are mirrored by changes in fire, lake biological productivity, and watershed erosion. These combined records indicate that subsequent disturbance related to Euro-American settlement, although perhaps significant, had acted upon a landscape that was already responding to MCA-LIA hydroclimatic change. Results document both rapid and long-term subalpine grassland ecosystem dynamics driven by agents of change that can be anticipated in the future and simulated by ecosystem models.

Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests.

PubMed

Spracklen, D V; Arnold, S R; Taylor, C M

2012-09-13

Vegetation affects precipitation patterns by mediating moisture, energy and trace-gas fluxes between the surface and atmosphere. When forests are replaced by pasture or crops, evapotranspiration of moisture from soil and vegetation is often diminished, leading to reduced atmospheric humidity and potentially suppressing precipitation. Climate models predict that large-scale tropical deforestation causes reduced regional precipitation, although the magnitude of the effect is model and resolution dependent. In contrast, observational studies have linked deforestation to increased precipitation locally but have been unable to explore the impact of large-scale deforestation. Here we use satellite remote-sensing data of tropical precipitation and vegetation, combined with simulated atmospheric transport patterns, to assess the pan-tropical effect of forests on tropical rainfall. We find that for more than 60 per cent of the tropical land surface (latitudes 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north), air that has passed over extensive vegetation in the preceding few days produces at least twice as much rain as air that has passed over little vegetation. We demonstrate that this empirical correlation is consistent with evapotranspiration maintaining atmospheric moisture in air that passes over extensive vegetation. We combine these empirical relationships with current trends of Amazonian deforestation to estimate reductions of 12 and 21 per cent in wet-season and dry-season precipitation respectively across the Amazon basin by 2050, due to less-efficient moisture recycling. Our observation-based results complement similar estimates from climate models, in which the physical mechanisms and feedbacks at work could be explored in more detail.

Simulating Snow in Canadian Boreal Environments with CLASS for ESM-SnowMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Bartlett, P. A.; Derksen, C.; Ireson, A. M.; Essery, R.

2017-12-01

The ability of land surface schemes to provide realistic simulations of snow cover is necessary for accurate representation of energy and water balances in climate models. Historically, this has been particularly challenging in boreal forests, where poor treatment of both snow masking by forests and vegetation-snow interaction has resulted in biases in simulated albedo and snowpack properties, with subsequent effects on both regional temperatures and the snow albedo feedback in coupled simulations. The SnowMIP (Snow Model Intercomparison Project) series of experiments or `MIPs' was initiated in order to provide assessments of the performance of various snow- and land-surface-models at selected locations, in order to understand the primary factors affecting model performance. Here we present preliminary results of simulations conducted for the third such MIP, ESM-SnowMIP (Earth System Model - Snow Model Intercomparison Project), using the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) at boreal forest sites in central Saskatchewan. We assess the ability of our latest model version (CLASS 3.6.2) to simulate observed snowpack properties (snow water equivalent, density and depth) and above-canopy albedo over 13 winters. We also examine the sensitivity of these simulations to climate forcing at local and regional scales.

Smaller global and regional carbon emissions from gross land use change when considering sub-grid secondary land cohorts in a global dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Wei

2018-02-01

Several modelling studies reported elevated carbon emissions from historical land use change (ELUC) by including bidirectional transitions on the sub-grid scale (termed gross land use change), dominated by shifting cultivation and other land turnover processes. However, most dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that have implemented gross land use change either do not account for sub-grid secondary lands, or often have only one single secondary land tile over a model grid cell and thus cannot account for various rotation lengths in shifting cultivation and associated secondary forest age dynamics. Therefore, it remains uncertain how realistic the past ELUC estimations are and how estimated ELUC will differ between the two modelling approaches with and without multiple sub-grid secondary land cohorts - in particular secondary forest cohorts. Here we investigated historical ELUC over 1501-2005 by including sub-grid forest age dynamics in a DGVM. We run two simulations, one with no secondary forests (Sageless) and the other with sub-grid secondary forests of six age classes whose demography is driven by historical land use change (Sage). Estimated global ELUC for 1501-2005 is 176 Pg C in Sage compared to 197 Pg C in Sageless. The lower ELUC values in Sage arise mainly from shifting cultivation in the tropics under an assumed constant rotation length of 15 years, being 27 Pg C in Sage in contrast to 46 Pg C in Sageless. Estimated cumulative ELUC values from wood harvest in the Sage simulation (31 Pg C) are however slightly higher than Sageless (27 Pg C) when the model is forced by reconstructed harvested areas because secondary forests targeted in Sage for harvest priority are insufficient to meet the prescribed harvest area, leading to wood harvest being dominated by old primary forests. An alternative approach to quantify wood harvest ELUC, i.e. always harvesting the close-to-mature forests in both Sageless and Sage, yields similar values of 33 Pg C by both simulations. The lower ELUC from shifting cultivation in Sage simulations depends on the predefined forest clearing priority rules in the model and the assumed rotation length. A set of sensitivity model runs over Africa reveal that a longer rotation length over the historical period likely results in higher emissions. Our results highlight that although gross land use change as a former missing emission component is included by a growing number of DGVMs, its contribution to overall ELUC remains uncertain and tends to be overestimated when models ignore sub-grid secondary forests.

Mountain pine beetle impacts on vegetation and carbon stocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hawbaker, Todd J.; Briggs, Jennifer S.; Caldwell, Megan K.; Stitt, Susan

2013-01-01

In the Southern Rocky Mountains, an epidemic outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB) has caused levels of tree mortality unprecedented in recorded history. The impacts of this mortality on vegetation composition, forest structure, and carbon stocks have only recently received attention, although the impacts of other disturbances such as fires and land-use/land-cover change are much better known. This study, initiated in 2010, aims to increase our understanding of MPB outbreaks and their impacts. We have integrated field-collected data with vegetation simulation models to assess and quantify how long-term patterns of vegetation and carbon stocks have and may change in response to MPB outbreaks and other disturbances.

Coupling dry deposition to vegetation phenology in the Community Earth System Model: Implications for the simulation of surface O3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Val Martin, M.; Heald, C. L.; Arnold, S. R.

2014-04-01

Dry deposition is an important removal process controlling surface ozone. We examine the representation of this ozone loss mechanism in the Community Earth System Model. We first correct the dry deposition parameterization by coupling the leaf and stomatal vegetation resistances to the leaf area index, an omission which has adversely impacted over a decade of ozone simulations using both the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (MOZART) and Community Atmospheric Model-Chem (CAM-Chem) global models. We show that this correction increases O3 dry deposition velocities over vegetated regions and improves the simulated seasonality in this loss process. This enhanced removal reduces the previously reported bias in summertime surface O3 simulated over eastern U.S. and Europe. We further optimize the parameterization by scaling down the stomatal resistance used in the Community Land Model to observed values. This in turn further improves the simulation of dry deposition velocity of O3, particularly over broadleaf forested regions. The summertime surface O3 bias is reduced from 30 ppb to 14 ppb over eastern U.S. and 13 ppb to 5 ppb over Europe from the standard to the optimized scheme, respectively. O3 deposition processes must therefore be accurately coupled to vegetation phenology within 3-D atmospheric models, as a first step toward improving surface O3 and simulating O3 responses to future and past vegetation changes.

Integration of biomass data in the dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delbart, N.; Viovy, N.; Ciais, P.; Le Toan, T.

2009-04-01

Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are aimed at estimating exchanges between the terrestrial vegetated surface and the atmosphere, and the spatial distribution of natural vegetation types. For this purpose, DVMs use the climatic data alone to feed the vegetation process equations. As dynamic models, they can also give predictions under the current and the future climatic conditions. However, they currently lack accuracy in locating carbon stocks, sinks and sources, and in getting the correct magnitude. Consequently they have been essentially used to compare the vegetation responses under different scenarii. The assimilation of external data such as remote sensing data has been shown to improve the simulations. For example, the land cover maps are used to force the correct distribution of plant functional types (PFTs), and the leaf area index data is used to force the photosynthesis processes. This study concerns the integration of biomass data within the DVM ORCHIDEE. The objective here is to have the living carbon stocks with the correct magnitude and the correct location. Carbon stocks depend on interplay of carbon assimilated by photosynthesis, and carbon lost by respiration, mortality and disturbance. Biomass data can therefore be used as one essential constraint on this interplay. In this study, we use a large database provided by in-situ measurements of carbon stocks and carbon fluxes of old growth forests to constraint this interplay. For each PFT, we first adjust the simulated photosynthesis by reducing the mean error with the in situ measurements. Then we proceed similarly to adjust the autotrophic respiration. We then compare the biomass measured, and adjust the mortality processes in the model. Second, when processes are adjusted for each PFT to minimize the mean error on the carbon stock, biomass measurements can be assimilated. This assimilation is based on the hypothesis that the main variable explaining the biomass level at a given location is the age of the forest, i.e. the time elapsed since the last disturbance. Hence, the measured biomass level is used to estimate the time of the last disturbance which is introduced in the simulation. This approach is imperfect as it neglects the differences due to difference in the growth rate with site quality, but it allows considering more precisely the effect of forest regeneration in DVM, which until now either considered ecosystems under equilibrium state, or introduced disturbance randomly. This approach is promising for better locating carbon sinks and sources. This work is carried out in the framework of the preparation of the space mission BIOMASS, a spaceborne platform equipped with a P-band synthetic aperture radar aiming at measuring the forest above ground biomass.

A case study for evaluating potential soil sensitivity in aridland systems.

PubMed

Peterman, Wendy L; Ferschweiler, Ken

2016-04-01

Globally, ecosystems are subjected to prolonged droughts and extreme heat events, leading to forest die-offs and dominance shifts in vegetation. Some scientists and managers view soil as the main resource to be considered in monitoring ecosystem responses to aridification. As the medium through which precipitation is received, stored, and redistributed for plant use, soil is an important factor in the sensitivity of ecosystems to a drying climate. This study presents a novel approach to evaluating where on a landscape soils may be most sensitive to drying, making them less resilient to disturbance, and where potential future vegetation changes could lead to such disturbance. The drying and devegetation of arid lands can increase wind erosion, contributing to aerosol and dust emissions. This has implications for air quality, human health, and water resources. This approach combines soil data with vegetation simulations, projecting future vegetation change, to create maps of potential areas of concern for soil sensitivity and dust production in a drying climate. Consistent with recent observations, the projections show shifts from grasslands and woodlands to shrublands in much of the southwestern region. An increase in forested area occurs, but shifts in the dominant types and spatial distribution of the forests also are seen. A net increase in desert ecosystems in the region and some changes in alpine and tundra ecosystems are seen. Approximately 124,000 km(2) of soils flagged as "sensitive" are projected to have vegetation change between 2041 and 2050, and 82,927 km(2) of soils may become sensitive because of future vegetation changes. These maps give managers a way to visualize and identify where soils and vegetation should be investigated and monitored for degradation in a drying climate, so restoration and mitigation strategies can be focused in these areas. © 2015 SETAC.

Forest-atmosphere BVOC exchange in diverse and structurally complex canopies: 1-D modeling of a mid-successional forest in northern Michigan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bryan, Alexander M.; Cheng, Susan J.; Ashworth, Kirsti

Foliar emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC)dimportant precursors of tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosolsdvary widely by vegetation type. Modeling studies to date typi-cally represent the canopy as a single dominant tree type or a blend of tree types, yet many forests are diverse with trees of varying height. To assess the sensitivity of biogenic emissions to tree height vari-ation, we compare two 1-D canopy model simulations in which BVOC emission potentials are homo-geneous or heterogeneous with canopy depth. The heterogeneous canopy emulates the mid-successional forest at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS). In this case, high-isoprene-emitting fo-liagemore » (e.g., aspen and oak) is constrained to the upper canopy, where higher sunlight availability increases the light-dependent isoprene emission, leading to 34% more isoprene and its oxidation products as compared to the homogeneous simulation. Isoprene declines from aspen mortality are 10% larger when heterogeneity is considered. Overall, our results highlight the importance of adequately representing complexities of forest canopy structure when simulating light-dependent BVOC emissions and chemistry.« less

[Variation characteristics and influencing factors of actual evapotranspiration under various vegetation types: A case study in the Huaihe River Basin, China.

PubMed

Wu, Rong Jun; Xing, Xiao Yong

2016-06-01

The actual evapotranspiration was modelled utilizing the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) in Huaihe River Basin from 2001 to 2012. In the meantime, the quantitative analyses of the spatial-temporal variations of actual evapotranspiration characteristics and its influencing factors under different vegetation types were conducted. The results showed that annual evapotranspiration gradually decreased from southeast to northwest, tended to increase annually, and the monthly change for the average annual evapotranspiration was double-peak curve. The differences of evapotranspiration among vegetation types showed that the farmland was the largest contributor for the evapotranspiration of Huaihe Basin. The annual actual evapotranspiration of the mixed forest per unit area was the largest, and that of the bare ground per unit area was the smallest. The changed average annual evapotranspiration per unit area for various vegetation types indicated an increased tendency other than the bare ground, with a most significant increase trend for the evergreen broadleaf forest. The thermodynamic factors (such as average temperature) were the dominant factors affecting the actual evapotranspiration in the Huaihe Basin, followed by radiation and moisture factors.

[Parameter sensitivity of simulating net primary productivity of Larix olgensis forest based on BIOME-BGC model].

PubMed

He, Li-hong; Wang, Hai-yan; Lei, Xiang-dong

2016-02-01

Model based on vegetation ecophysiological process contains many parameters, and reasonable parameter values will greatly improve simulation ability. Sensitivity analysis, as an important method to screen out the sensitive parameters, can comprehensively analyze how model parameters affect the simulation results. In this paper, we conducted parameter sensitivity analysis of BIOME-BGC model with a case study of simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of Larix olgensis forest in Wangqing, Jilin Province. First, with the contrastive analysis between field measurement data and the simulation results, we tested the BIOME-BGC model' s capability of simulating the NPP of L. olgensis forest. Then, Morris and EFAST sensitivity methods were used to screen the sensitive parameters that had strong influence on NPP. On this basis, we also quantitatively estimated the sensitivity of the screened parameters, and calculated the global, the first-order and the second-order sensitivity indices. The results showed that the BIOME-BGC model could well simulate the NPP of L. olgensis forest in the sample plot. The Morris sensitivity method provided a reliable parameter sensitivity analysis result under the condition of a relatively small sample size. The EFAST sensitivity method could quantitatively measure the impact of simulation result of a single parameter as well as the interaction between the parameters in BIOME-BGC model. The influential sensitive parameters for L. olgensis forest NPP were new stem carbon to new leaf carbon allocation and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio, the effect of their interaction was significantly greater than the other parameter' teraction effect.

Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity.

PubMed

Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

2016-06-01

A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison

DOE PAGES

Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Levine, Naomi M.; Christoffersen, Bradley O.; ...

2016-08-29

To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of othermore » fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, ‘soil water stress’ and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (Re) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and Re consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. In conclusion, correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.« less

Do dynamic global vegetation models capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in the Amazon basin? A data-model intercomparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Levine, Naomi M.; Christoffersen, Bradley O.

To predict forest response to long-term climate change with high confidence requires that dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) be successfully tested against ecosystem response to short-term variations in environmental drivers, including regular seasonal patterns. Here, we used an integrated dataset from four forests in the Brasil flux network, spanning a range of dry-season intensities and lengths, to determine how well four state-of-the-art models (IBIS, ED2, JULES, and CLM3.5) simulated the seasonality of carbon exchanges in Amazonian tropical forests. We found that most DGVMs poorly represented the annual cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP), of photosynthetic capacity (Pc), and of othermore » fluxes and pools. Models simulated consistent dry-season declines in GPP in the equatorial Amazon (Manaus K34, Santarem K67, and Caxiuanã CAX); a contrast to observed GPP increases. Model simulated dry-season GPP reductions were driven by an external environmental factor, ‘soil water stress’ and consequently by a constant or decreasing photosynthetic infrastructure (Pc), while observed dry-season GPP resulted from a combination of internal biological (leaf-flush and abscission and increased Pc) and environmental (incoming radiation) causes. Moreover, we found models generally overestimated observed seasonal net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and respiration (Re) at equatorial locations. In contrast, a southern Amazon forest (Jarú RJA) exhibited dry-season declines in GPP and Re consistent with most DGVMs simulations. While water limitation was represented in models and the primary driver of seasonal photosynthesis in southern Amazonia, changes in internal biophysical processes, light-harvesting adaptations (e.g., variations in leaf area index (LAI) and increasing leaf-level assimilation rate related to leaf demography), and allocation lags between leaf and wood, dominated equatorial Amazon carbon flux dynamics and were deficient or absent from current model formulations. In conclusion, correctly simulating flux seasonality at tropical forests requires a greater understanding and the incorporation of internal biophysical mechanisms in future model developments.« less

Potential land use adjustment for future climate change adaptation in revegetated regions.

PubMed

Peng, Shouzhang; Li, Zhi

2018-05-22

To adapt to future climate change, appropriate land use patterns are desired. Potential natural vegetation (PNV) emphasizing the dominant role of climate can provide a useful baseline to guide the potential land use adjustment. This work is particularly important for the revegetated regions with intensive human perturbation. However, it has received little attention. This study chose China's Loess Plateau, a typical revegetated region, as an example study area to generate the PNV patterns with high spatial resolution over 2071-2100 with a process-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), and further investigated the potential land use adjustment through comparing the simulated and observed land use patterns. Compared with 1981-2010, the projected PNV over 2071-2100 would have less forest and more steppe because of drier climate. Subsequently, 25.3-55.0% of the observed forests and 79.3-91.9% of the observed grasslands in 2010 can be kept over 2071-2100, and the rest of the existing forested area and grassland were expected to be more suitable for steppes and forests, respectively. To meet the request of China's Grain for Green Project, 60.9-84.8% of the existing steep farmland could be converted to grassland and the other for forest. Our results highlight the importance in adjusting the existing vegetation pattern to adapt to climate change. The research approach is extendable and provides a framework to evaluate the sustainability of the existing land use pattern under future climate. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

PubMed

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Reducing uncertainty for estimating forest carbon stocks and dynamics using integrated remote sensing, forest inventory and process-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulter, B.; Ciais, P.; Joetzjer, E.; Maignan, F.; Luyssaert, S.; Barichivich, J.

2015-12-01

Accurately estimating forest biomass and forest carbon dynamics requires new integrated remote sensing, forest inventory, and carbon cycle modeling approaches. Presently, there is an increasing and urgent need to reduce forest biomass uncertainty in order to meet the requirements of carbon mitigation treaties, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). Here we describe a new parameterization and assimilation methodology used to estimate tropical forest biomass using the ORCHIDEE-CAN dynamic global vegetation model. ORCHIDEE-CAN simulates carbon uptake and allocation to individual trees using a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis, respiration and other first-order processes. The model is first parameterized using forest inventory data to constrain background mortality rates, i.e., self-thinning, and productivity. Satellite remote sensing data for forest structure, i.e., canopy height, is used to constrain simulated forest stand conditions using a look-up table approach to match canopy height distributions. The resulting forest biomass estimates are provided for spatial grids that match REDD+ project boundaries and aim to provide carbon estimates for the criteria described in the IPCC Good Practice Guidelines Tier 3 category. With the increasing availability of forest structure variables derived from high-resolution LIDAR, RADAR, and optical imagery, new methodologies and applications with process-based carbon cycle models are becoming more readily available to inform land management.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

2017-12-01

One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. At 8 kyr BP, vegetation cover was much denser in Africa, mainly due to increased rainfall in response to the orbital forcing. Boreal forests moved northward in both, North America and Eurasia. The boreal forest expansion in North America is much less pronounced than in Eurasia. Simulated physical ocean fields, including surface temperatures and meridional overturning, do not change substantially in the Holocene. Carbonate ion concentration in deep ocean decreases in both, prescribed and interactive CO2simulations. Comparison with available proxies for terrestrial vegetation and for the ocean carbonate chemistry will be presented. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon die to productivity decrease. This decadal-scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies.

Current state and projection of the probable original vegetation of the São Carlos region of São Paulo State, Brazil.

PubMed

Soares, J J; da Silva, D W; Lima, M I

2003-08-01

A map of the native vegetation remaining in São Carlos County was built based on aerial images, satellite images, and field observations, and a projection of the probable original vegetation was made by checking it against soil and relief surveys. The existing vegetation is very fragmented and improverished, consisting predominantly of cerrados (savanna vegetation of various physiognomies), semideciduous and riparian forest, and regeneration areas. Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) Kuntze, found in patches inside the semideciduous forest beginning at a minimum altitude of 850 m, has practically disappeared. By evaluating areas on the map for different forms of vegetation, we obtained the following results for original coverage: 27% cerrado (sparsely arboreal and short-shrub savanna, and wet meadows); 16% cerradão (arboreal savanna); 55% semideciduous and riparian forests; and 2% forest with A. angustifolia. There are now 2% cerrados; 2.5% cerradão; 1% semideciduous forest and riparian forests; 1.5% regeneration areas; and 0% forest with A. angustifolia.

Characterizing forest vegetation of the Tanana Valley: what can forest inventory and analysis deliver?

Treesearch

Bethany Schulz

2015-01-01

Vegetation profile data were collected as part of a forest inventory project in the Tanana Valley in interior Alaska, providing a means of characterizing the forest vegetation. The black spruce forest type was most common, followed by Alaska paper birch, and white spruce, quaking aspen, and balsam poplar. For individual tree species, black spruce was recorded on 68...

Simulating carbon sequestration using cellular automata and land use assessment for Karaj, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatibi, Ali; Pourebrahim, Sharareh; Mokhtar, Mazlin Bin

2018-06-01

Carbon sequestration has been proposed as a means of slowing the atmospheric and marine accumulation of greenhouse gases. This study used observed and simulated land use/cover changes to investigate and predict carbon sequestration rates in the city of Karaj. Karaj, a metropolis of Iran, has undergone rapid population expansion and associated changes in recent years, and these changes make it suitable for use as a case study for rapidly expanding urban areas. In particular, high quality agricultural space, green space and gardens have rapidly transformed into industrial, residential and urban service areas. Five classes of land use/cover (residential, agricultural, rangeland, forest and barren areas) were considered in the study; vegetation and soil samples were taken from 20 randomly selected locations. The level of carbon sequestration was determined for the vegetation samples by calculating the amount of organic carbon present using the dry plant weight method, and for soil samples by using the method of Walkley and Black. For each area class, average values of carbon sequestration in vegetation and soil samples were calculated to give a carbon sequestration index. A cellular automata approach was used to simulate changes in the classes. Finally, the carbon sequestration indices were combined with simulation results to calculate changes in carbon sequestration for each class. It is predicted that, in the 15 year period from 2014 to 2029, much agricultural land will be transformed into residential land, resulting in a severe reduction in the level of carbon sequestration. Results from this study indicate that expansion of forest areas in urban counties would be an effective means of increasing the levels of carbon sequestration. Finally, future opportunities to include carbon sequestration into the simulation of land use/cover changes are outlined.

Forest road sideslopes and soil conservation techniques

Treesearch

Johnny M. Grace

2000-01-01

Forest road sideslopes have been identified as one of the major sources of erosion losses from managed forest systems. Stabilization by vegetation has shown the greatest potential for mitigation of soil erosion on forest road sideslopes. Sediment and runoff production from a wood excelsior erosion mat, native species vegetative mix, and exotic species vegetative mix...

Impacts of Landuse Management and Climate Change on Landslides Susceptibility over the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Adam, J. C.

2009-12-01

The commercial forests on the western side of the Olympic Mountains in Washington State are a region of steep slopes and high annual rainfall (2500-6000 mm/year) and are therefore highly susceptible to landslides. Potential climatic change (more intense and frequent winter storms) may exacerbate landslide susceptibility unless forest management practices are changed. As this area is a critical habitat for numerous organisms, including salmon, this may result in potentially severe consequences to riparian habitat due to increased sediment loads. Therefore, there is a need to investigate potential forest management plans to promote the economic viability of timber extraction while protecting the natural habitat, particularly in riparian areas. The objective of this study is to predict the long term effects of forest management decisions under projected climate change on slope stability. We applied the physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with its sediment module to simulate mass wasting and sediment delivery under different vegetation and climate scenarios. Sub-basins were selected and classified according to elevation, slope, land cover and soil type. Various land management practices (such as clear-cutting in riparian areas, logging under short rotations, varying amount of timbers left intact in riparian areas) were applied to each of the selected sub-basins. DHSVM was used to simulate landslide volume, frequency, and sediment loads for each of the land cover applications under various future climate scenarios. We comment on the suitability of various harvesting techniques for different parts of the forest to minimize landslide-induced sediment loading to streams in an altered climate. This approach can be developed as a decision making tool that can be used by forest managers to make long-term planning decisions.

On validating remote sensing simulations using coincident real data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mingming; Yao, Wei; Brown, Scott; Goodenough, Adam; van Aardt, Jan

2016-05-01

The remote sensing community often requires data simulation, either via spectral/spatial downsampling or through virtual, physics-based models, to assess systems and algorithms. The Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) model is one such first-principles, physics-based model for simulating imagery for a range of modalities. Complex simulation of vegetation environments subsequently has become possible, as scene rendering technology and software advanced. This in turn has created questions related to the validity of such complex models, with potential multiple scattering, bidirectional distribution function (BRDF), etc. phenomena that could impact results in the case of complex vegetation scenes. We selected three sites, located in the Pacific Southwest domain (Fresno, CA) of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). These sites represent oak savanna, hardwood forests, and conifer-manzanita-mixed forests. We constructed corresponding virtual scenes, using airborne LiDAR and imaging spectroscopy data from NEON, ground-based LiDAR data, and field-collected spectra to characterize the scenes. Imaging spectroscopy data for these virtual sites then were generated using the DIRSIG simulation environment. This simulated imagery was compared to real AVIRIS imagery (15m spatial resolution; 12 pixels/scene) and NEON Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) data (1m spatial resolution; 180 pixels/scene). These tests were performed using a distribution-comparison approach for select spectral statistics, e.g., established the spectra's shape, for each simulated versus real distribution pair. The initial comparison results of the spectral distributions indicated that the shapes of spectra between the virtual and real sites were closely matched.

Modeling streamflow in a snow-dominated forest watershed using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was originally developed for hillslope and small watershed applications. The model simulates complex interactive processes influencing erosion, such as surface runoff, soil-water changes, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation and me...

Characterizing Vegetation Model Skill and Uncertainty in Simulated Ecosystem Response to Climate Change in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drapek, R. J.; Kim, J. B.

2013-12-01

We simulated ecosystem response to climate change in the USA and Canada at a 5 arc-minute grid resolution using the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model and nine CMIP3 future climate projections as input. The climate projections were produced by 3 GCMs simulating 3 SRES emissions scenarios. We examined MC1 outputs for the conterminous USA by summarizing them by EPA level II and III ecoregions to characterize model skill and evaluate the magnitude and uncertainties of simulated ecosystem response to climate change. First, we evaluated model skill by comparing outputs from the recent historical period with benchmark datasets. Distribution of potential natural vegetation simulated by MC1 was compared with Kuchler's map. Above ground live carbon simulated by MC1 was compared with the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset. Fire return intervals calculated by MC1 were compared with maximum and minimum values compiled for the United States. Each EPA Level III Ecoregion was scored for average agreement with corresponding benchmark data and an average score was calculated for all three types of output. Greatest agreement with benchmark data happened in the Western Cordillera, the Ozark / Ouachita-Appalachian Forests, and the Southeastern USA Plains (EPA Level II Ecoregions). The lowest agreement happened in the Everglades and the Tamaulipas-Texas Semiarid Plain. For simulated ecosystem response to future climate projections we examined MC1 output for shifts in vegetation type, vegetation carbon, runoff, and biomass consumed by fire. Each ecoregion was scored for the amount of change from historical conditions for each variable and an average score was calculated. Smallest changes were forecast for Western Cordillera and Marine West Coast Forest ecosystems. Largest changes were forecast for the Cold Deserts, the Mixed Wood Plains, and the Central USA Plains. By combining scores of model skill for the historical period for each EPA Level 3 Ecoregion with scores representing the magnitude of ecosystem changes in the future, we identified high and low uncertainty ecoregions. The largest anticipated changes and the lowest measures of model skill coincide in the Central USA Plains and the Mixed Wood Plains. The combination of low model skill and high degree of ecosystem change elevate the importance of our uncertainty in this ecoregion. The highest projected changes coincide with relatively high model skill in the Cold Deserts. Climate adaptation efforts are the most likely to pay off in these regions. Finally, highest model skill and lowest anticipated changes coincide in the Western Cordillera and the Marine West Coast Forests. These regions may be relatively low-risk for climate change impacts when compared to the other ecoregions. These results represent only the first step in this type of analysis; there exist many ways to strengthen it. One, MC1 calibrations can be optimized using a structured optimization technique. Two, a larger set of climate projections can be used to capture a fuller range of GCMs and emissions scenarios. And three, employing an ensemble of vegetation models would make the analysis more robust.

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T.; Gaetani, F.; D'Andrea, M.

2009-04-01

Land cover change and forest fire interaction under climate and socio-economics changes, is one of the main issues of the 21th century. The capability of defining future scenarios of land cover and fire regime allow forest managers to better understand the best actions to be carried out and their long term effects. In this paper a new methodology for land cover change simulations under climate change and fire disturbance is presented and discussed. The methodology is based on the assumption that forest fires exhibits power law frequency-area distribution. The well known Forest Fire Model (FFM), which is an example of self organized criticality, is able to reproduce this behavior. Starting from this observation, a modified version of the FFM has been developed. The new model, called Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM) introduces several new features. A stochastic model for vegetation growth and regrowth after fire occurrence has been implemented for different kind of vegetations. In addition, a stochastic fire propagation model taking into account topography and vegetation cover has been introduced. The MFFM has been developed with the purpose of estimating vegetation cover changes and fire regimes over a time windows of many years for a given spatial region. Two different case studies have been carried out. The first case study is related with Liguria (Italy), a region of 5400 km2 lying between the Cote d'Azur, France, and Tuscany, Italy, on the northwest coast of the Tyrrhenian Sea. This region is characterized by Mediterranean fire regime. The second case study has been carried out in California (Florida) on a region having similar area and characterized by similar climate conditions. In both cases the model well represents the actual fire regime in terms of power law parameters proving interesting results about future land cover scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economics change.

Effect of Tree-to-Shrub Type Conversion in Lower Montane Forests of the Sierra Nevada (USA) on Streamflow

PubMed Central

Tague, Christina L.; Moritz, Max A.

2016-01-01

Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation < 800 mm), with most streamflow change observed during wetter years. These modeling results underscore the importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada. PMID:27575592

Effect of Tree-to-Shrub Type Conversion in Lower Montane Forests of the Sierra Nevada (USA) on Streamflow.

PubMed

Bart, Ryan R; Tague, Christina L; Moritz, Max A

2016-01-01

Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation < 800 mm), with most streamflow change observed during wetter years. These modeling results underscore the importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada.

TThe role of nitrogen availability in land-atmosphere interactions: a systematic evaluation of carbon-nitrogen coupling in a global land surface model using plot-level nitrogen fertilization experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R. Q.; Goodale, C. L.; Bonan, G. B.; Mahowald, N. M.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.

2010-12-01

Recent research from global land surface models emphasizes the important role of nitrogen cycling on global climate, via its control on the terrestrial carbon balance. Despite the implications of nitrogen cycling on global climate predictions, the research community has not performed a systematic evaluation of nitrogen cycling in global models. Here, we present such an evaluation for one global land model, CLM-CN. In the evaluation we simulated 45 plot-scale nitrogen-fertilization experiments distributed across 33 temperate and boreal forest sites. Model predictions were evaluated against field observations by comparing the vegetation and soil carbon responses to the additional nitrogen. Aggregated across all experiments, the model predicted a larger vegetation carbon response and a smaller soil carbon response than observed; the responses partially offset each other, leading to a slightly larger total ecosystem carbon response than observed. However, the model-observation agreement improved for vegetation carbon when the sites with observed negative carbon responses to nitrogen were excluded, which may be because the model lacks mechanisms whereby nitrogen additions increase tree mortality. Among experiments, younger forests and boreal forests’ vegetation carbon responses were less than predicted and mature forests (> 40 years old) were greater than predicted. Specific to the CLM-CN, this study used a systematic evaluation to identify key areas to focus model development, especially soil carbon- nitrogen interactions and boreal forest nitrogen cycling. Applicable to the modeling community, this study demonstrates a standardized protocol for comparing carbon-nitrogen interactions among global land models.

Integration of ground and satellite data to estimate the forest carbon fluxes of a Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiesi, M.; Maselli, F.; Moriondo, M.; Fibbi, L.; Bindi, M.; Running, S. W.

2009-04-01

The current paper reports on the development and testing of a methodology capable of simulating the main terms of forest carbon budget (gross primary production, GPP, net primary production, NPP, and net ecosystem exchange, NEE) in the Mediterranean environment. The study area is Tuscany, a region of Central Italy which is covered by forests over about half of its surface. It is peculiar for its extremely heterogeneous morphological and climatic features which ranges from typically Mediterranean to temperate warm or cool according to the altitudinal and latitudinal gradients and the distance from the sea (Rapetti and Vittorini, 1995). The simulation of forest carbon budget is based on the preliminary collection of several data layers to characterize the eco-climatic and forest features of the region (i.e. maps of forest type and volume, daily meteorological data and monthly NDVI-derived FAPAR - fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation - estimates for the years 1999-2003). In particular, the 1:250.000 forest type map describes the distribution of 18 forest classes and was obtained by the Regional Cartographic Service. The volume map, with a 30 m spatial resolution and a mean accuracy of about 90 m3/ha, was produced by combining the available regional forest inventory data and Landsat TM images (Maselli and Chiesi, 2006). Daily meteorological data (minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation) were extrapolated by the use of the DAYMET algorithm (Thornton et al., 1997) from measurements taken at existing whether stations for the years 1996-2003 (calibration plus application periods); solar radiation was then estimated by the model MT-CLIM (Thornton et al., 2000). Monthly NDVI-derived FAPAR estimates were obtained using the Spot-VEGETATION satellite sensor data for the whole study period (1999-2003). After the collection of these data layers, a simplified, remote sensing based parametric model (C-Fix), is applied for the production of a reference series of monthly gross primary production (GPP) estimates. In particular this model estimates forest GPP as function of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by vegetation (Veroustraete et al., 2002) combined with ground based estimates of incoming solar radiation and air temperature. These GPP values are used as reference data to both calibrate and integrate the functions of a more complex bio-geochemical model, BIOME-BGC, which is capable of simulating all main ecosystem processes. This model requires: daily climate data, information on the general environment (i.e. soil, vegetation and site conditions) and parameters describing the ecophysiological characteristics of vegetation. Both C-Fix and BIOME-BGC compute GPP as an expression of total, or potential, productivity of an ecosystem in equilibrium with the environment. This makes the GPP estimates of the two models practically inter-comparable and opens the possibility of using the more accurate GPP estimates of C-Fix to both calibrate BIOME-BGC and stabilize its outputs (Chiesi et al., 2007). In particular, by integrating BIOME-BGC respiration estimates to those of C-Fix, forest fluxes for the entire region are obtained, which are referable to ecosystems at equilibrium (climax) condition. These estimates are converted into NPP and NEE of real forests relying on a specifically developed conceptual framework which uses the ratio of actual over potential stand volume as indicator of ecosystem distance from climax. The accuracy of the estimated net carbon exchanges is finally evaluated against ground data derived from a recent forest inventory and from two eddy covariance flux towers located in Tuscany (San Rossore and Lecceto). The results of both these comparisons were quite positive, indicating the good capability of the method for forest carbon flux estimation in Mediterranean areas.

The Effect of Forest Management Strategy on Carbon Storage and Revenue in Western Washington: A Probabilistic Simulation of Tradeoffs.

PubMed

Fischer, Paul W; Cullen, Alison C; Ettl, Gregory J

2017-01-01

The objectives of this study are to understand tradeoffs between forest carbon and timber values, and evaluate the impact of uncertainty in improved forest management (IFM) carbon offset projects to improve forest management decisions. The study uses probabilistic simulation of uncertainty in financial risk for three management scenarios (clearcutting in 45- and 65-year rotations and no harvest) under three carbon price schemes (historic voluntary market prices, cap and trade, and carbon prices set to equal net present value (NPV) from timber-oriented management). Uncertainty is modeled for value and amount of carbon credits and wood products, the accuracy of forest growth model forecasts, and four other variables relevant to American Carbon Registry methodology. Calculations use forest inventory data from a 1,740 ha forest in western Washington State, using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth model. Sensitivity analysis shows that FVS model uncertainty contributes more than 70% to overall NPV variance, followed in importance by variability in inventory sample (3-14%), and short-term prices for timber products (8%), while variability in carbon credit price has little influence (1.1%). At regional average land-holding costs, a no-harvest management scenario would become revenue-positive at a carbon credit break-point price of $14.17/Mg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). IFM carbon projects are associated with a greater chance of both large payouts and large losses to landowners. These results inform policymakers and forest owners of the carbon credit price necessary for IFM approaches to equal or better the business-as-usual strategy, while highlighting the magnitude of financial risk and reward through probabilistic simulation. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Climate- and disturbance-driven changes in vegetation composition and structure limit future potential carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, Paul D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhao, Feng; Huang, Chengquan; Berryman, Erin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang

2016-04-01

The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) provides unique opportunities to understand how changing climate, land use, and disturbance affect ecosystem carbon balance. The GYE is one of the largest, most intact ecosystems in the United States. However, distinct management histories on National Park, National Forest, and private lands, elevational climate gradients, and variable fire activity, have created a mosaic of stand ages and forest types. It is uncertain how greenhouse forcing may alter the carbon balance of the GYE. Whereas increasing temperatures may enhance productivity and perpetuate the GYE as a carbon sink, climate-driven increases in fire frequency may offset productivity gains by limiting biomass accumulation. We investigated how changes in fire frequency and size may affect vegetation dynamics and carbon sequestration potential in the GYE using the LANDIS-II dynamic landscape vegetation model. LANDIS-II provides sufficient spatial resolution to capture landscape-level variation in forest biomass and forest types (i.e. 90 × 90 m grid cells), but can integrate disturbance regimes and vegetation dynamics across the entire GYE (92,000 km2). We initiated our simulations with biomass and stand conditions that preceded the exceptional 1988 fire, when 16% of the GYE burned. We inferred the biomass, species abundances, and stand demographics of each model cell by combining satellite imagery with forest inventory data, and developed two fire regime scenarios from historical fire records. We developed a historic wildfire scenario with infrequent fires by excluding 1988 from our calibration of fire sizes and frequencies, and a future scenario with more frequent and larger fires by including 1988 in our calibrations. Fire frequency increased in all forest types in our future scenario, with a 152% increase in the annual forest area burned relative to observed area burned during recent decades. However, the changes in fire frequency varied among forest types, with the largest increases in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta; 332% increase) and spruce/fir (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa; 243% increase) stands. In model runs with the historic fire regime, average stand age and live biomass remained consistent with pre-1988 values during the 200-year simulation period; biomass increased significantly only in recently-logged areas. In contrast, a marked shift to younger stands with lower biomass occurred in the future fire scenario. Average stand age declined from 112 years to 31 years in lodgepole pine stands, and from 191 years to 65 years in spruce/fir stands, with consequent reductions in living biomass. A smaller shift in stand age was simulated for douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands (i.e. 121 to 92 years). These fire-driven changes in stand age and biomass coincided with important shifts in species abundances. Specifically, lodgepole pine stands replaced large areas previously dominated by spruce and fir. Our results suggest that the potential for increasing the amount of fossil fuel emissions offset by carbon sequestration on public lands in the American West is limited by ongoing changes in disturbance regimes. Instead, land managers may need to consider strategies to adapt to climate change impacts.

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2015-01-01

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Simulation of Surface Energy Fluxes and Snow Interception Using a Higher Order Closure Multi-Layer Soil-Vegetation-Atmospheric Model: The Effect of Canopy Shape and Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, L. E.; Dahlke, H. E.; Paw U, K. T.

2015-12-01

Snow cover is a critical driver of the Earth's surface energy budget, climate change, and water resources. Variations in snow cover not only affect the energy budget of the land surface but also represent a major water supply source. In California, US estimates of snow depth, extent, and melt in the Sierra Nevada are critical to estimating the amount of water available for both California agriculture and urban users. However, accurate estimates of snow cover and snow melt processes in forested area still remain a challenge. Canopy structure influences the vertical and spatiotemporal distribution of snow, and therefore ultimately determines the degree and extent by which snow alters both the surface energy balance and water availability in forested regions. In this study we use the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil algorithm (ACASA), a multi-layer soil-vegetation-atmosphere numerical model, to simulate the effect of different snow-covered canopy structures on the energy budget, and temperature and other scalar profiles within different forest types in the Sierra Nevada, California. ACASA incorporates a higher order turbulence closure scheme which allows the detailed simulation of turbulent fluxes of heat and water vapor as well as the CO2 exchange of several layers within the canopy. As such ACASA can capture the counter gradient fluxes within canopies that may occur frequently, but are typically unaccounted for, in most snow hydrology models. Six different canopy types were modeled ranging from coniferous forests (e.g. most biomass near the ground) to top-heavy (e.g. most biomass near the top of the crown) deciduous forests to multi-layered forest canopies (e.g. mixture of young and mature trees). Preliminary results indicate that the canopy shape and structure associated with different canopy types fundamentally influence the vertical scalar profiles (including those of temperature, moisture, and wind speed) in the canopy and thus alter the interception and snow melt dynamics in forested land surfaces. The turbulent transport dynamics, including counter-gradient fluxes, and radiation features including land surface albedo, are discussed in the context of the snow energy balance.

Opposing Responses of Bird Functional Diversity to Vegetation Structural Diversity in Wet and Dry Forest.

PubMed

Sitters, Holly; York, Alan; Swan, Matthew; Christie, Fiona; Di Stefano, Julian

2016-01-01

Disturbance regimes are changing worldwide, and the consequences for ecosystem function and resilience are largely unknown. Functional diversity (FD) provides a surrogate measure of ecosystem function by capturing the range, abundance and distribution of trait values in a community. Enhanced understanding of the responses of FD to measures of vegetation structure at landscape scales is needed to guide conservation management. To address this knowledge gap, we used a whole-of-landscape sampling approach to examine relationships between bird FD, vegetation diversity and time since fire. We surveyed birds and measured vegetation at 36 landscape sampling units in dry and wet forest in southeast Australia during 2010 and 2011. Four uncorrelated indices of bird FD (richness, evenness, divergence and dispersion) were derived from six bird traits, and we investigated responses of these indices and species richness to both vertical and horizontal vegetation diversity using linear mixed models. We also considered the extent to which the mean and diversity of time since fire were related to vegetation diversity. Results showed opposing responses of FD to vegetation diversity in dry and wet forest. In dry forest, where fire is frequent, species richness and two FD indices (richness and dispersion) were positively related to vertical vegetation diversity, consistent with theory relating to environmental variation and coexistence. However, in wet forest subject to infrequent fire, the same three response variables were negatively associated with vertical diversity. We suggest that competitive dominance by species results in lower FD as vegetation diversity increases in wet forest. The responses of functional evenness were opposite to those of species richness, functional richness and dispersion in both forest types, highlighting the value of examining multiple FD metrics at management-relevant scales. The mean and diversity of time since fire were uncorrelated with vegetation diversity in wet forest, but positively correlated with vegetation diversity in dry forest. We therefore suggest that protection of older vegetation is important, but controlled application of low-severity fire in dry forest may sustain ecosystem function by enhancing different elements of FD.

Opposing Responses of Bird Functional Diversity to Vegetation Structural Diversity in Wet and Dry Forest

PubMed Central

York, Alan; Swan, Matthew; Christie, Fiona; Di Stefano, Julian

2016-01-01

Disturbance regimes are changing worldwide, and the consequences for ecosystem function and resilience are largely unknown. Functional diversity (FD) provides a surrogate measure of ecosystem function by capturing the range, abundance and distribution of trait values in a community. Enhanced understanding of the responses of FD to measures of vegetation structure at landscape scales is needed to guide conservation management. To address this knowledge gap, we used a whole-of-landscape sampling approach to examine relationships between bird FD, vegetation diversity and time since fire. We surveyed birds and measured vegetation at 36 landscape sampling units in dry and wet forest in southeast Australia during 2010 and 2011. Four uncorrelated indices of bird FD (richness, evenness, divergence and dispersion) were derived from six bird traits, and we investigated responses of these indices and species richness to both vertical and horizontal vegetation diversity using linear mixed models. We also considered the extent to which the mean and diversity of time since fire were related to vegetation diversity. Results showed opposing responses of FD to vegetation diversity in dry and wet forest. In dry forest, where fire is frequent, species richness and two FD indices (richness and dispersion) were positively related to vertical vegetation diversity, consistent with theory relating to environmental variation and coexistence. However, in wet forest subject to infrequent fire, the same three response variables were negatively associated with vertical diversity. We suggest that competitive dominance by species results in lower FD as vegetation diversity increases in wet forest. The responses of functional evenness were opposite to those of species richness, functional richness and dispersion in both forest types, highlighting the value of examining multiple FD metrics at management-relevant scales. The mean and diversity of time since fire were uncorrelated with vegetation diversity in wet forest, but positively correlated with vegetation diversity in dry forest. We therefore suggest that protection of older vegetation is important, but controlled application of low-severity fire in dry forest may sustain ecosystem function by enhancing different elements of FD. PMID:27741290

Evaluating CMIP5 Simulations of Historical Continental Climate with Koeppen Bioclimatic Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Bonfils, C.

2013-12-01

The classic Koeppen bioclimatic classification scheme associates generic vegetation types (e.g. grassland, tundra, broadleaf or evergreen forests, etc.) with regional climate zones defined by their annual cycles of continental temperature (T) and precipitation (P), considered together. The locations or areas of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observational data thus can provide concise metrical standards for simultaneously evaluating climate simulations of T and P in naturally defined regions. The CMIP5 models' collective ability to correctly represent two variables that are critically important for living organisms at regional scales is therefore central to this evaluation. For this study, 14 Koeppen vegetation types are derived from annual-cycle climatologies of T and P in some 3 dozen CMIP5 simulations of the 1980-1999 period. Metrics for evaluating the ability of the CMIP5 models to simulate the correct locations and areas of each vegetation type, as well as measures of overall model performance, also are developed. It is found that the CMIP5 models are generally most deficient in simulating: 1) climates of drier Koeppen zones (e.g. desert, savanna, grassland, steppe vegetation types) located in the southwestern U.S. and Mexico, eastern Europe, southern Africa, and central Australia; 2) climates of regions such as central Asia and western South America where topography plays a key role. Details of regional T or P biases in selected simulations that exemplify general model performance problems also will be presented. Acknowledgments: This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. Map of Koeppen vegetation types derived from observed T and P.

Millennial Climatic Fluctuations Are Key to the Structure of Last Glacial Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Huntley, Brian; Allen, Judy R. M.; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Hickler, Thomas; Lister, Adrian M.; Singarayer, Joy; Stuart, Anthony J.; Sykes, Martin T.; Valdes, Paul J.

2013-01-01

Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in “normal” and “hosing” experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The “hosing” experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the “normal” experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems. PMID:23613985

Millennial climatic fluctuations are key to the structure of last glacial ecosystems.

PubMed

Huntley, Brian; Allen, Judy R M; Collingham, Yvonne C; Hickler, Thomas; Lister, Adrian M; Singarayer, Joy; Stuart, Anthony J; Sykes, Martin T; Valdes, Paul J

2013-01-01

Whereas fossil evidence indicates extensive treeless vegetation and diverse grazing megafauna in Europe and northern Asia during the last glacial, experiments combining vegetation models and climate models have to-date simulated widespread persistence of trees. Resolving this conflict is key to understanding both last glacial ecosystems and extinction of most of the mega-herbivores. Using a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) we explored the implications of the differing climatic conditions generated by a general circulation model (GCM) in "normal" and "hosing" experiments. Whilst the former approximate interstadial conditions, the latter, designed to mimic Heinrich Events, approximate stadial conditions. The "hosing" experiments gave simulated European vegetation much closer in composition to that inferred from fossil evidence than did the "normal" experiments. Given the short duration of interstadials, and the rate at which forest cover expanded during the late-glacial and early Holocene, our results demonstrate the importance of millennial variability in determining the character of last glacial ecosystems.

Improvement and extension of a radar forest backscattering model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simonett, David S.; Wang, Yong

1989-01-01

Radar modeling of mangal forest stands, in the Sundarbans area of Southern Bangladesh, was developed. The modeling employs radar system parameters such as wavelength, polarization, and incidence angle, with forest data on tree height, spacing, biomass, species combinations, and water content (including slightly conductive water) both in leaves and trunks of the mangal. For Sundri and Gewa tropical mangal forests, five model components are proposed, which are required to explain the contributions of various forest species combinations in the attenuation and scattering of mangal vegetated nonflooded or flooded surfaces. Statistical data of simulated images (HH components only) were compared with those of SIR-B images both to refine the modeling procedures and to appropriately characterize the model output. The possibility of delineation of flooded or non-flooded boundaries is discussed.

Controlling factors for infiltration on undisturbed hillslopes in unmanaged plantation forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiraoka, Marino; Onda, Yuichi; Gomi, Takashi; Mizugaki, Shigeru; Nanko, Kazuki; Kato, Hiroaki

2017-04-01

Infiltration into the soil is a crucial factor for predicting overland flow generation. Infiltration capacity strongly relates to ground vegetation, soil characteristics, or both. For revealing controlling factors for infiltration capacity, we conducted in-situ rainfall simulation using an oscillating-nozzle type rainfall simulator at 26 plots with different ground cover conditions of unmanaged Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations. For wide-ranging vegetation cover condition (0-100%), infiltration capacity widely varied (5-322 mm/h) and had positive correlations with indices of ground vegetation and ground litter (p < 0.01). For a limited vegetation cover condition (0-20%), the range of infiltration capacity (7-114 mm/h) was associated with ground litter thickness (p < 0.05), and difference in soil organic matter and difference in soil bulk density. Principal component analysis showed that the first and second principal components (70% of total variation) related to changes in above- and below-ground biomass and changes in pores in soil. Our findings showed that development of ground vegetation alters hydrological processes of surface soil through changes in soil characteristics via the propagation of belowground biomass development.

Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minchao; Smith, Benjamin; Schurgers, Guy; Lindström, Joe; Rummukainen, Markku; Samuelsson, Patrick

2013-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have been demonstrated to play a significant role within the climate system, amplifying or dampening climate change via biogeophysical and biogeochemical exchange with the atmosphere and vice versa (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004). Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change and studies of vegetation-climate feedback mechanisms on Africa are still limited. Our study is the first application of A coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa. We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feedback to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feedback to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. We reveal that LAI-driven evapotranspiration feedback may reduced rainfall in parts of Africa, vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa. Keywords: vegetation-climate feedback, regional climate model, evapotranspiration, CORDEX. References: Betts, R.A., Cox, P.M., Collins, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. & Jones, C.D. 2004. The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 78: 157-175. Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Jones, C.D., Spall, S.A. & Totterdell, I.J. 2000. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408: 184-187. Samuelsson, P., Jones, C., Wilĺen, U., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U. and coauthors. 2011. The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3:Model description and performance. Tellus 63A, 4-23. Smith, B., Prentice, I. C. and Sykes, M. T. 2001. Representation of vegetation dynamics in modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Global Ecol. Biogeog. 10, 621-637 Smith, B., Samuelsson, P., Wramneby, A. & Rummukainen, M. 2011. A model of the coupled dynamics of climate, vegetation and terrestrial ecosystem biogeochemistry for regional applications. Tellus 63A: 87-106.

Simulation of Soil Quality with Riparian Forests and Cultivated with Sugarcane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, Luiz Gabriel; Colato, Alexandre; Casagrande, José Carlos; Soares, Marcio Roberto; Perissatto Meneghin, Silvana

2013-04-01

Riparian forests are entrusted with important hydrological functions, such as riparian zone protection, filtering sediments and nutrients and mitigation of the amount of nutrients and xenobiotic molecules from the surrounding agro ecosystems. The soil was sampled in the depths of 0-0,2 and 0.2-0.4 m and its chemical (nutrient content and organic matter, cationic exchange capacity - CEC, sum of bases-SB, bases saturation, V%, and aluminum saturation, m%); physical (particle size distribution, density and porosity) and microbiological attributes (basal respiration and microbial biomass) were determined. This work aimed to study the liner method of combining data, figures of merit (FoM), weighing process and the scoring functions developed by Wymore and asses the quality of the soil (SQI) by means of chemical, physical and microbiological soil attributes, employing the additive pondered model for two areas of riparian forest at different stages of ecological succession and an adjacent area cultivated with sugar cane, located on the dam shores of Sugar Mill Saint Lucia-Araras/SP. Some hierarchical functions containing FoMs and their parameters were constructed, and from them weights were assigned to each FoM and parameter, in a way that cluster of structures with the same FoMs and parameters with different weights were formed. These clusters were used to calculate the SQI for all vegetal formations considering two types of soil (Oxisol and Podzol), in that way, the SQI was calculated for each combination of vegetation and soil. The SQIs values were usually higher in the oldest riparian forest, while the recent riparian forest showed the smallest SQI values, for both types of soil. The variation of values within a combination vegetation/soil was also different between all combinations, being that the set of values from the oldest riparian forest presented the lowest amplitude. It was also observed that the Oxisols, regardless of the vegetation, presented higher SQIs values and smaller amplitude than the Podzols. It can be noted that this occurs mainly due to the amount of organic matter (OM) in the soil, that besides differ between all the vegetations and types of soil, influences many parameters used in the model. Thus, in the structures where was assigned higher weighs to OM, the SQIs values tended to present higher differences between the combinations with great amount of OM and these with small amount of OM, which can be noted clearly comparing the SQIs values from the oldest riparian forest with the other vegetations.

Impacts of land-use history on the recovery of ecosystems after agricultural abandonment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D.; Lindeskog, Mats; Arneth, Almut

2016-09-01

Land-use changes have been shown to have large effects on climate and biogeochemical cycles, but so far most studies have focused on the effects of conversion of natural vegetation to croplands and pastures. By contrast, relatively little is known about the long-term influence of past agriculture on vegetation regrowth and carbon sequestration following land abandonment. We used the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories (in terms of type and duration) across a range of ecosystems. To this end, we performed six idealized simulations for Europe and Africa in which we made a transition from natural vegetation to either pasture or cropland, followed by a transition back to natural vegetation after 20, 60 or 100 years. The simulations identified substantial differences in recovery trajectories of four key variables (vegetation composition, vegetation carbon, soil carbon, net biome productivity) after agricultural cessation. Vegetation carbon and composition typically recovered faster than soil carbon in subtropical, temperate and boreal regions, and vice versa in the tropics. While the effects of different land-use histories on recovery periods of soil carbon stocks often differed by centuries across our simulations, differences in recovery times across simulations were typically small for net biome productivity (a few decades) and modest for vegetation carbon and composition (several decades). Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity of recovery times to prior land use in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands, where post-agricultural productivity was strongly affected by prior land management. Our results suggest that land-use history is a relevant factor affecting ecosystems long after agricultural cessation, and it should be considered not only when assessing historical or future changes in simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle but also when establishing long-term monitoring networks and interpreting data derived therefrom, including analysis of a broad range of ecosystem properties or local climate effects related to land cover changes.

Nationwide classification of forest types of India using remote sensing and GIS.

PubMed

Reddy, C Sudhakar; Jha, C S; Diwakar, P G; Dadhwal, V K

2015-12-01

India, a mega-diverse country, possesses a wide range of climate and vegetation types along with a varied topography. The present study has classified forest types of India based on multi-season IRS Resourcesat-2 Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) data. The study has characterized 29 land use/land cover classes including 14 forest types and seven scrub types. Hybrid classification approach has been used for the classification of forest types. The classification of vegetation has been carried out based on the ecological rule bases followed by Champion and Seth's (1968) scheme of forest types in India. The present classification scheme has been compared with the available global and national level land cover products. The natural vegetation cover was estimated to be 29.36% of total geographical area of India. The predominant forest types of India are tropical dry deciduous and tropical moist deciduous. Of the total forest cover, tropical dry deciduous forests occupy an area of 2,17,713 km(2) (34.80%) followed by 2,07,649 km(2) (33.19%) under tropical moist deciduous forests, 48,295 km(2) (7.72%) under tropical semi-evergreen forests and 47,192 km(2) (7.54%) under tropical wet evergreen forests. The study has brought out a comprehensive vegetation cover and forest type maps based on inputs critical in defining the various categories of vegetation and forest types. This spatially explicit database will be highly useful for the studies related to changes in various forest types, carbon stocks, climate-vegetation modeling and biogeochemical cycles.

Simulating effects of changing climate and CO(2) emissions on soil carbon pools at the Hubbard Brook experimental forest.

PubMed

Dib, Alain E; Johnson, Chris E; Driscoll, Charles T; Fahey, Timothy J; Hayhoe, Katharine

2014-05-01

Carbon (C) sequestration in forest biomass and soils may help decrease regional C footprints and mitigate future climate change. The efficacy of these practices must be verified by monitoring and by approved calculation methods (i.e., models) to be credible in C markets. Two widely used soil organic matter models - CENTURY and RothC - were used to project changes in SOC pools after clear-cutting disturbance, as well as under a range of future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2) ) scenarios. Data from the temperate, predominantly deciduous Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, USA, were used to parameterize and validate the models. Clear-cutting simulations demonstrated that both models can effectively simulate soil C dynamics in the northern hardwood forest when adequately parameterized. The minimum postharvest SOC predicted by RothC occurred in postharvest year 14 and was within 1.5% of the observed minimum, which occurred in year 8. CENTURY predicted the postharvest minimum SOC to occur in year 45, at a value 6.9% greater than the observed minimum; the slow response of both models to disturbance suggests that they may overestimate the time required to reach new steady-state conditions. Four climate change scenarios were used to simulate future changes in SOC pools. Climate-change simulations predicted increases in SOC by as much as 7% at the end of this century, partially offsetting future CO(2) emissions. This sequestration was the product of enhanced forest productivity, and associated litter input to the soil, due to increased temperature, precipitation and CO(2) . The simulations also suggested that considerable losses of SOC (8-30%) could occur if forest vegetation at HBEF does not respond to changes in climate and CO(2) levels. Therefore, the source/sink behavior of temperate forest soils likely depends on the degree to which forest growth is stimulated by new climate and CO(2) conditions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling the interaction between plant canopies and the planetary boundary layer using a new 1D multi-layer soil- vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) scheme combined with a non-local turbulence closure model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yetzer, Kenneth H.

A new one-dimensional (1D) soil-vegetation-atmospheric transport (SVAT) scheme is coupled to a nonlocal turbulence closure model in order to simulate the interactions between a forested canopy and the planetary boundary layer. The SVAT consists of mechanistic models for both physiological (photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and soil/root and bole respiration) and micrometeorological (radiative transfer and surface energy exchanges) processes. The turbulence closure model is a first-order, nonlocal turbulence closure called transilient turbulence theory (Stull, 1993; Inclan et al., 1995) which includes the effects of form drag, wake turbulence, and interference to vertical mixing by the plant elements. The submodel that accounts for radiative transfer inside the forest has been taken from Norman (1979) and Baldocchi (1989). It includes the effect of varying mean leaf inclination angle with height and it also accounts for leaf clumping The photosynthesis submodel is taken from Nikolov and others (1995). It accounts for both differences between shaded and sunlit leaves and the variation of photosynthetic capacity with height. The model was tested with data obtained from a deciduous forest in Pennsylvania. The results show reasonable agreement with the observations. They also demonstrate the model's ability to simulate phenomena that is characteristic of tall canopies like forests, including counter gradient-fluxes and local wind speed maxima in the trunk space.

Effects of forest thinning on bird-vegetation relationships in young Douglas-fir forests

Treesearch

Svetlana Yegorova

2013-01-01

Forest thinning has been widely used in the Pacifi c Northwest as a technique to accelerate latesuccessional vegetation characteristics and promote mature forest habitats for wildlife. Th inning treatments aff ect tree and understory vegetation development. Th e eff ects of thinning on bird abundance and occurrence vary by bird species and change over time, presumably...

Modelling Sensor and Target effects on LiDAR Waveforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosette, J.; North, P. R.; Rubio, J.; Cook, B. D.; Suárez, J.

2010-12-01

The aim of this research is to explore the influence of sensor characteristics and interactions with vegetation and terrain properties on the estimation of vegetation parameters from LiDAR waveforms. This is carried out using waveform simulations produced by the FLIGHT radiative transfer model which is based on Monte Carlo simulation of photon transport (North, 1996; North et al., 2010). The opportunities for vegetation analysis that are offered by LiDAR modelling are also demonstrated by other authors e.g. Sun and Ranson, 2000; Ni-Meister et al., 2001. Simulations from the FLIGHT model were driven using reflectance and transmittance properties collected from the Howland Research Forest, Maine, USA in 2003 together with a tree list for a 200m x 150m area. This was generated using field measurements of location, species and diameter at breast height. Tree height and crown dimensions of individual trees were calculated using relationships established with a competition index determined for this site. Waveforms obtained by the Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) were used as validation of simulations. This provided a base from which factors such as slope, laser incidence angle and pulse width could be varied. This has enabled the effect of instrument design and laser interactions with different surface characteristics to be tested. As such, waveform simulation is relevant for the development of future satellite LiDAR sensors, such as NASA’s forthcoming DESDynI mission (NASA, 2010), which aim to improve capabilities of vegetation parameter estimation. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank scientists at the Biospheric Sciences Branch of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, in particular to Jon Ranson and Bryan Blair. This work forms part of research funded by the NASA DESDynI project and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NE/F021437/1). REFERENCES NASA, 2010, DESDynI: Deformation, Ecosystem Structure and Dynamics of Ice. http://desdyni.jpl.nasa.gov/ (accessed May 2010). NI-MEISTER, W., JUPP, D. L. B. and DUBAYAH, R., 2001, Modeling Lidar Waveforms in Heterogeneous and Discrete Canopies. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 39 (9): 1943-1958. NORTH, P. R. J., 1996, Three-Dimensional Forest Light Interaction Model Using a Monte Carlo Method. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 34 (4): 946-956. NORTH, P. R. J., ROSETTE, J. A. B., SUÁREZ, J. C. and LOS, S. O., 2010, A Monte Carlo radiative transfer model of satellite waveform lidar. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 31 (5): 1343-1358. SUN, G. and RANSON, K. J., 2000, Modeling lidar returns from forest canopies. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 38 (6): 2617-2626.

Internal Catchment Process Simulation in a Snow-Dominated Basin: Performance Evaluation with Spatiotemporally Variable Runoff Generation and Groundwater Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuras, P. K.; Weiler, M.; Alila, Y.; Spittlehouse, D.; Winkler, R.

2006-12-01

Hydrologic models have been increasingly used in forest hydrology to overcome the limitations of paired watershed experiments, where vegetative recovery and natural variability obscure the inferences and conclusions that can be drawn from such studies. Models, however, are also plagued by uncertainty stemming from a limited understanding of hydrological processes in forested catchments and parameter equifinality is a common concern. This has created the necessity to improve our understanding of how hydrological systems work, through the development of hydrological measures, analyses and models that address the question: are we getting the right answers for the right reasons? Hence, physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrologic models should be validated with high-quality experimental data describing multiple concurrent internal catchment processes under a range of hydrologic regimes. The distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) frequently used in forest management applications is an example of a process-based model used to address the aforementioned circumstances, and this study takes a novel approach at collectively examining the ability of a pre-calibrated model application to realistically simulate outlet flows along with the spatial-temporal variation of internal catchment processes including: continuous groundwater dynamics at 9 locations, stream and road network flow at 67 locations for six individual days throughout the freshet, and pre-melt season snow distribution. Model efficiency was improved over prior evaluations due to continuous efforts in improving the quality of meteorological data in the watershed. Road and stream network flows were very well simulated for a range of hydrological conditions, and the spatial distribution of the pre-melt season snowpack was in general agreement with observed values. The model was effective in simulating the spatial variability of subsurface flow generation, except at locations where strong stream-groundwater interactions existed, as the model is not capable of simulating such processes and subsurface flows always drain to the stream network. The model has proven overall to be quite capable in realistically simulating internal catchment processes in the watershed, which creates more confidence in future model applications exploring the effects of various forest management scenarios on the watershed's hydrological processes.

Estimates of phytomass and net primary productivity in terrestrial ecosystems of the former Soviet Union identified by classified Global Vegetation Index

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaston, G.G.; Kolchugina, T.P.

1995-12-01

Forty-two regions with similar vegetation and landcover were identified in the former Soviet Union (FSU) by classifying Global Vegetation Index (GVI) images. Image classes were described in terms of vegetation and landcover. Image classes appear to provide more accurate and precise descriptions for most ecosystems when compared to general thematic maps. The area of forest lands were estimated at 1,330 Mha and the actual area of forest ecosystems at 875 Mha. Arable lands were estimated to be 211 Mha. The area of the tundra biome was estimated at 261 Mha. The areas of the forest-tundra/dwarf forest, taiga, mixed-deciduous forest andmore » forest-steppe biomes were estimated t 153, 882, 196, and 144 Mha, respectively. The areas of desert-semidesert biome and arable land with irrigated land and meadows, were estimated at 126 and 237 Mha, respectively. Vegetation and landcover types were associated with the Bazilevich database of phytomass and NPP for vegetation in the FSU. The phytomass in the FSU was estimated at 97.1 Gt C, with 86.8 in forest vegetation, 9.7 in natural non-forest and 0.6 Gt C in arable lands. The NPP was estimated at 8.6 Gt C/yr, with 3.2, 4.8, and 0.6 Gt C/yr of forest, natural non-forest, and arable ecosystems, respectively. The phytomass estimates for forests were greater than previous assessments which considered the age-class distribution of forest stands in the FSU. The NPP of natural ecosystems estimated in this study was 23% greater than previous estimates which used thematic maps to identify ecosystems. 47 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Plant traits demonstrate that temperate and tropical giant eucalypt forests are ecologically convergent with rainforest not savanna.

PubMed

Tng, David Y P; Jordan, Greg J; Bowman, David M J S

2013-01-01

Ecological theory differentiates rainforest and open vegetation in many regions as functionally divergent alternative stable states with transitional (ecotonal) vegetation between the two forming transient unstable states. This transitional vegetation is of considerable significance, not only as a test case for theories of vegetation dynamics, but also because this type of vegetation is of major economic importance, and is home to a suite of species of conservation significance, including the world's tallest flowering plants. We therefore created predictions of patterns in plant functional traits that would test the alternative stable states model of these systems. We measured functional traits of 128 trees and shrubs across tropical and temperate rainforest - open vegetation transitions in Australia, with giant eucalypt forests situated between these vegetation types. We analysed a set of functional traits: leaf carbon isotopes, leaf area, leaf mass per area, leaf slenderness, wood density, maximum height and bark thickness, using univariate and multivariate methods. For most traits, giant eucalypt forest was similar to rainforest, while rainforest, particularly tropical rainforest, was significantly different from the open vegetation. In multivariate analyses, tropical and temperate rainforest diverged functionally, and both segregated from open vegetation. Furthermore, the giant eucalypt forests overlapped in function with their respective rainforests. The two types of giant eucalypt forests also exhibited greater overall functional similarity to each other than to any of the open vegetation types. We conclude that tropical and temperate giant eucalypt forests are ecologically and functionally convergent. The lack of clear functional differentiation from rainforest suggests that giant eucalypt forests are unstable states within the basin of attraction of rainforest. Our results have important implications for giant eucalypt forest management.

Plant Traits Demonstrate That Temperate and Tropical Giant Eucalypt Forests Are Ecologically Convergent with Rainforest Not Savanna

PubMed Central

Tng, David Y. P.; Jordan, Greg J.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2013-01-01

Ecological theory differentiates rainforest and open vegetation in many regions as functionally divergent alternative stable states with transitional (ecotonal) vegetation between the two forming transient unstable states. This transitional vegetation is of considerable significance, not only as a test case for theories of vegetation dynamics, but also because this type of vegetation is of major economic importance, and is home to a suite of species of conservation significance, including the world’s tallest flowering plants. We therefore created predictions of patterns in plant functional traits that would test the alternative stable states model of these systems. We measured functional traits of 128 trees and shrubs across tropical and temperate rainforest – open vegetation transitions in Australia, with giant eucalypt forests situated between these vegetation types. We analysed a set of functional traits: leaf carbon isotopes, leaf area, leaf mass per area, leaf slenderness, wood density, maximum height and bark thickness, using univariate and multivariate methods. For most traits, giant eucalypt forest was similar to rainforest, while rainforest, particularly tropical rainforest, was significantly different from the open vegetation. In multivariate analyses, tropical and temperate rainforest diverged functionally, and both segregated from open vegetation. Furthermore, the giant eucalypt forests overlapped in function with their respective rainforests. The two types of giant eucalypt forests also exhibited greater overall functional similarity to each other than to any of the open vegetation types. We conclude that tropical and temperate giant eucalypt forests are ecologically and functionally convergent. The lack of clear functional differentiation from rainforest suggests that giant eucalypt forests are unstable states within the basin of attraction of rainforest. Our results have important implications for giant eucalypt forest management. PMID:24358359

A small mammal community in a forest fragment, vegetation corridor and coffee matrix system in the Brazilian Atlantic forest.

PubMed

Rocha, Mariana Ferreira; Passamani, Marcelo; Louzada, Júlio

2011-01-01

The objective of our work was to verify the value of the vegetation corridor in the conservation of small mammals in fragmented tropical landscapes, using a model system in the southeastern Minas Gerais. We evaluated and compared the composition and structure of small mammals in a vegetation corridor, forest fragments and a coffee matrix. A total of 15 species were recorded, and the highest species richness was observed in the vegetation corridor (13 species), followed by the forest fragments (10) and the coffee matrix (6). The absolute abundance was similar between the vegetation corridor and fragments (F = 22.94; p = 0.064), and the greatest differences occurred between the vegetation corridor and the matrix (F = 22.94; p = 0.001) and the forest fragments and the matrix (F = 22.94; p = 0.007). Six species showed significant habitat preference possibly related to the sensitivity of the species to the forest disturbance. Marmosops incanus was the species most sensitive to disturbance; Akodon montensis, Cerradomys subflavus, Gracilinanus microtarsus and Rhipidomys sp. displayed little sensitivity to disturbance, with a high relative abundance in the vegetation corridor. Calomys sp. was the species least affected by habitat disturbance, displaying a high relative abundance in the coffee matrix. Although the vegetation corridors are narrow (4 m width), our results support the hypothesis in which they work as a forest extension, share most species with the forest fragment and support species richness and abundance closer to forest fragments than to the coffee matrix. Our work highlights the importance and cost-effectiveness of these corridors to biodiversity management in the fragmented Atlantic Forest landscapes and at the regional level.

A Small Mammal Community in a Forest Fragment, Vegetation Corridor and Coffee Matrix System in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

PubMed Central

Rocha, Mariana Ferreira; Passamani, Marcelo; Louzada, Júlio

2011-01-01

The objective of our work was to verify the value of the vegetation corridor in the conservation of small mammals in fragmented tropical landscapes, using a model system in the southeastern Minas Gerais. We evaluated and compared the composition and structure of small mammals in a vegetation corridor, forest fragments and a coffee matrix. A total of 15 species were recorded, and the highest species richness was observed in the vegetation corridor (13 species), followed by the forest fragments (10) and the coffee matrix (6). The absolute abundance was similar between the vegetation corridor and fragments (F = 22.94; p = 0.064), and the greatest differences occurred between the vegetation corridor and the matrix (F = 22.94; p = 0.001) and the forest fragments and the matrix (F = 22.94; p = 0.007). Six species showed significant habitat preference possibly related to the sensitivity of the species to the forest disturbance. Marmosops incanus was the species most sensitive to disturbance; Akodon montensis, Cerradomys subflavus, Gracilinanus microtarsus and Rhipidomys sp. displayed little sensitivity to disturbance, with a high relative abundance in the vegetation corridor. Calomys sp. was the species least affected by habitat disturbance, displaying a high relative abundance in the coffee matrix. Although the vegetation corridors are narrow (4 m width), our results support the hypothesis in which they work as a forest extension, share most species with the forest fragment and support species richness and abundance closer to forest fragments than to the coffee matrix. Our work highlights the importance and cost-effectiveness of these corridors to biodiversity management in the fragmented Atlantic Forest landscapes and at the regional level. PMID:21912591

Regional assessment of boreal forest productivity using an ecological process model and remote sensing parameter maps.

PubMed

Kimball, J. S.; Keyser, A. R.; Running, S. W.; Saatchi, S. S.

2000-06-01

An ecological process model (BIOME-BGC) was used to assess boreal forest regional net primary production (NPP) and response to short-term, year-to-year weather fluctuations based on spatially explicit, land cover and biomass maps derived by radar remote sensing, as well as soil, terrain and daily weather information. Simulations were conducted at a 30-m spatial resolution, over a 1205 km(2) portion of the BOREAS Southern Study Area of central Saskatchewan, Canada, over a 3-year period (1994-1996). Simulations of NPP for the study region were spatially and temporally complex, averaging 2.2 (+/- 0.6), 1.8 (+/- 0.5) and 1.7 (+/- 0.5) Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) for 1994, 1995 and 1996, respectively. Spatial variability of NPP was strongly controlled by the amount of aboveground biomass, particularly photosynthetic leaf area, whereas biophysical differences between broadleaf deciduous and evergreen coniferous vegetation were of secondary importance. Simulations of NPP were strongly sensitive to year-to-year variations in seasonal weather patterns, which influenced the timing of spring thaw and deciduous bud-burst. Reductions in annual NPP of approximately 17 and 22% for 1995 and 1996, respectively, were attributed to 3- and 5-week delays in spring thaw relative to 1994. Boreal forest stands with greater proportions of deciduous vegetation were more sensitive to the timing of spring thaw than evergreen coniferous stands. Similar relationships were found by comparing simulated snow depth records with 10-year records of aboveground NPP measurements obtained from biomass harvest plots within the BOREAS region. These results highlight the importance of sub-grid scale land cover complexity in controlling boreal forest regional productivity, the dynamic response of the biome to short-term interannual climate variations, and the potential implications of climate change and other large-scale disturbances.

76 FR 2878 - Six Rivers National Forest, Mad River Ranger District, CA; Buck Mountain Vegetation and Fuel...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-18

...; Buck Mountain Vegetation and Fuel Management Project EIS AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice... the Buck Mountain Vegetation and Fuel Management Project to accelerate late-successional forest... project design features have been identified. Late-Successional Reserve Management Silvicultural...

The role of tidal current characteristics on the development of intertidal morphology in tropical and subtropical mangrove forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryan, K. R.; Nardin, W.; Fagherazzi, S.; Mullarney, J. C.; Norris, B. K.; Henderson, S. M.

2016-12-01

Mangroves are a common intertidal species in tropical and sub-tropical environments, with growth forms that vary substantially between species such as the pencil roots in Avicennia, the prop or stilt roots of Rhizophora and the knee roots in Bruguiera. Here we investigate the role root and tree structures may play on the longterm development of intertidal morphology in mangrove-dominated environments. We use a one-dimensional Delft3D numerical simulation in conjunction with a simple model to determine that the dominant controls on the tidally-driven momentum balance are the frictional characteristics of the forest, which delay the propagation of the tide into the forest. Details of the vegetation at the seaward fringe along with sediment grain size determine the shape of the ensuing profile, with sparser vegetation and coarser grainsizes creating more linear profiles whereas denser vegetation and finer grainsizes generating convex intertidal profiles. Examples showing these different profile developments are provided from the Mekong Delta in Vietnam, which tends to a linear profile, and the Firth of Thames in New Zealand, which has a distinctive convex profile. Preliminary validation using current meter measurements from the Mekong Delta show that the currents diminish quickly between the mudflat seaward of the forest and the fringe, then remain fairly constant several hundred meters into the forest indicating that this linear profile has probably developed into an equilibrium shape. Understanding the forces that shape the development of the intertidal profile shape is critical to predicting the resilience of these sensitive intertidal areas to changes in inundation caused by sea level rise.

Detection, Emission Estimation and Risk Prediction of Forest Fires in China Using Satellite Sensors and Simulation Models in the Past Three Decades—An Overview

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jia-Hua; Yao, Feng-Mei; Liu, Cheng; Yang, Li-Min; Boken, Vijendra K.

2011-01-01

Forest fires have major impact on ecosystems and greatly impact the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview in the forest fire detection, emission estimation, and fire risk prediction in China using satellite imagery, climate data, and various simulation models over the past three decades. Since the 1980s, remotely-sensed data acquired by many satellites, such as NOAA/AVHRR, FY-series, MODIS, CBERS, and ENVISAT, have been widely utilized for detecting forest fire hot spots and burned areas in China. Some developed algorithms have been utilized for detecting the forest fire hot spots at a sub-pixel level. With respect to modeling the forest burning emission, a remote sensing data-driven Net Primary productivity (NPP) estimation model was developed for estimating forest biomass and fuel. In order to improve the forest fire risk modeling in China, real-time meteorological data, such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, have been used as the model input for improving prediction of forest fire occurrence and its behavior. Shortwave infrared (SWIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels of satellite sensors have been employed for detecting live fuel moisture content (FMC), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for evaluating the forest vegetation condition and its moisture status. PMID:21909297

Detection, emission estimation and risk prediction of forest fires in China using satellite sensors and simulation models in the past three decades--an overview.

PubMed

Zhang, Jia-Hua; Yao, Feng-Mei; Liu, Cheng; Yang, Li-Min; Boken, Vijendra K

2011-08-01

Forest fires have major impact on ecosystems and greatly impact the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview in the forest fire detection, emission estimation, and fire risk prediction in China using satellite imagery, climate data, and various simulation models over the past three decades. Since the 1980s, remotely-sensed data acquired by many satellites, such as NOAA/AVHRR, FY-series, MODIS, CBERS, and ENVISAT, have been widely utilized for detecting forest fire hot spots and burned areas in China. Some developed algorithms have been utilized for detecting the forest fire hot spots at a sub-pixel level. With respect to modeling the forest burning emission, a remote sensing data-driven Net Primary productivity (NPP) estimation model was developed for estimating forest biomass and fuel. In order to improve the forest fire risk modeling in China, real-time meteorological data, such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, have been used as the model input for improving prediction of forest fire occurrence and its behavior. Shortwave infrared (SWIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels of satellite sensors have been employed for detecting live fuel moisture content (FMC), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for evaluating the forest vegetation condition and its moisture status.

Special features of the dayCent modeling package and additional procedures for parameterization, calibration, validation, and applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

DayCent (Daily Century) is a biogeochemical model of intermediate complexity used to simulate flows of carbon and nutrients for crop, grassland, forest, and savanna ecosystems. Required model inputs are: soil texture, current and historical land use, vegetation cover, and daily maximum/minimum tempe...

FVS out of the box - assembly required

Treesearch

Don Vandendriesche

2010-01-01

The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a prominent growth and yield model used for forecasting stand dynamics. However, users need to be aware of model behavior regarding stocking density, tree senescence, and understory recruitment; otherwise over long projections, FVS tends to concentrate substantial growth on few survivor trees. If the intent is to forecast...

Simulated water budget of a small forested watershed in the continental/maritime hydroclimatic region of the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Widespread decreases in annualized streamflow have been observed across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years, however in some watersheds, observed streamflow has increased. To deconvolve the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long-term ...

EPIC-Simulated and MODIS-Derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) Comparisons Across mMltiple Spatial Scales RSAD Oral Poster based session

EPA Science Inventory

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important parameter in assessing vegetation structure for characterizing forest canopies over large areas at broad spatial scales using satellite remote sensing data. However, satellite-derived LAI products can be limited by obstructed atmospheric cond...

Stevensville West Central Study

Treesearch

J. G. Jones; J. D. Chew; N. K. Christianson; D. J. Silvieus; C. A. Stewart

2000-01-01

This paper reports on an application of two modeling systems in the assessment and planning effort for a 58,038-acre area on the Bitterroot National Forest: SIMulating Vegetative Patterns and Processes at Landscape ScaLEs (SIMPPLLE), and Multi-resource Analysis and Geographic Information System (MAGIS). SIMPPLLE was a useful model for tracking and analyzing an...

Methods for integrated modeling of landscape change: Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System.

Treesearch

Jane L. Hayes; Alan. A. Ager; R. James Barbour

2004-01-01

The Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) links a number of resource, disturbance, and landscape simulations models to examine the interactions of vegetative succession, management, and disturbance with policy goals. The effects of natural disturbance like wildfire, herbivory, forest insects and diseases, as well as specific management actions are...

Modelling the effect of wildfire on forested catchment water quality using the SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Bishop, T.; van Ogtrop, F. F.; Bell, T.

2016-12-01

Wildfire removes the surface vegetation, releases ash, increase erosion and runoff, and therefore effects the hydrological cycle of a forested water catchment. It is important to understand chnage and how the catchment recovers. These processes are spatially sensitive and effected by interactions between fire severity and hillslope, soil type and surface vegetation conditions. Thus, a distributed hydrological modelling approach is required. In this study, the Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) is used to predict the effect of 2001/02 Sydney wild fire on catchment water quality. 10 years pre-fire data is used to create and calibrate the SWAT model. The calibrated model was then used to simulate the water quality for the 10 years post-fire period without fire effect. The simulated water quality data are compared with recorded water quality data provided by Sydney catchment authority. The mean change of flow, total suspended solid, total nitrate and total phosphate are compare on monthly, three month, six month and annual basis. Two control catchment and three burn catchment were analysed.

Simulations of Forest Fires by the Cellular Automata Model "ABBAMPAU"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Gregorio, S.; Bendicenti, E.

2003-04-01

Forest fires represent a serious environmental problem, whose negative impact is becoming day by day more worrisome. Forest fires are very complex phenomena; that need an interdisciplinary approach. The adopted method to modelling involves the definition of local rules, from which the global behaviour of the system can emerge. The paradigm of Cellular Automata was applied and the model ABBAMPAU was projected to simulate the evolution of forest fires. Cellular Automata features (parallelism and a-centrism) seem to match the system "forest fire"; the parameters, describing globally a forest fire, i.e. propagation rate, flame length and direction, fireline intensity, fire duration time et c. are mainly depending on some local characteristics i.e. vegetation type (live and dead fuel), relative humidity, fuel moisture, heat, territory morphology (altitude, slope), et c.. The only global characteristic is given by wind velocity and direction, but wind velocity and direction is locally altered according to the morphology; therefore wind has also to be considered at local level. ABBAMPAU accounts for the following aspects of the phenomenon: effects of combustion in surface and crown fire inside the cell, crown fire triggering off; surface and crown fire spread, determination of the local wind rate and direction. A validation of ABBAMPAU was tested on a real case of forest fire, in the territory of Villaputzu, Sardinia island, August 22nd, 1998. First simulations account for the main characteristics of the phenomenon and agree with the observations. The results show that the model could be applied for the forest fire preventions, the productions of risk scenarios and the evaluation of the forest fire environmental impact.

Associations between soil variables and vegetation structure and composition of Caribbean dry forests

Treesearch

Elvia M. Melendez-Ackerman; Julissa Rojas-Sandoval; Danny S. Fernandez; Grizelle Gonzalez; Hana Lopez; Jose Sustache; Mariely Morales; Miguel Garcia-Bermudez; Susan Aragon

2016-01-01

Soil–vegetation associations have been understudied in tropical dry forests when compared to the amount of extant research on this issue in tropical wet forests. Recent studies assert that vegetation in tropical dry forests is highly heterogeneous and that soil variability may be a contributing factor. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between soil variables...

An optical sensor network for vegetation phenology monitoring and satellite data calibration.

PubMed

Eklundh, Lars; Jin, Hongxiao; Schubert, Per; Guzinski, Radoslaw; Heliasz, Michal

2011-01-01

We present a network of sites across Fennoscandia for optical sampling of vegetation properties relevant for phenology monitoring and satellite data calibration. The network currently consists of five sites, distributed along an N-S gradient through Sweden and Finland. Two sites are located in coniferous forests, one in a deciduous forest, and two on peatland. The instrumentation consists of dual-beam sensors measuring incoming and reflected red, green, NIR, and PAR fluxes at 10-min intervals, year-round. The sensors are mounted on separate masts or in flux towers in order to capture radiation reflected from within the flux footprint of current eddy covariance measurements. Our computations and model simulations demonstrate the validity of using off-nadir sampling, and we show the results from the first year of measurement. NDVI is computed and compared to that of the MODIS instrument on-board Aqua and Terra satellite platforms. PAR fluxes are partitioned into reflected and absorbed components for the ground and canopy. The measurements demonstrate that the instrumentation provides detailed information about the vegetation phenology and variations in reflectance due to snow cover variations and vegetation development. Valuable information about PAR absorption of ground and canopy is obtained that may be linked to vegetation productivity.

An Optical Sensor Network for Vegetation Phenology Monitoring and Satellite Data Calibration

PubMed Central

Eklundh, Lars; Jin, Hongxiao; Schubert, Per; Guzinski, Radoslaw; Heliasz, Michal

2011-01-01

We present a network of sites across Fennoscandia for optical sampling of vegetation properties relevant for phenology monitoring and satellite data calibration. The network currently consists of five sites, distributed along an N-S gradient through Sweden and Finland. Two sites are located in coniferous forests, one in a deciduous forest, and two on peatland. The instrumentation consists of dual-beam sensors measuring incoming and reflected red, green, NIR, and PAR fluxes at 10-min intervals, year-round. The sensors are mounted on separate masts or in flux towers in order to capture radiation reflected from within the flux footprint of current eddy covariance measurements. Our computations and model simulations demonstrate the validity of using off-nadir sampling, and we show the results from the first year of measurement. NDVI is computed and compared to that of the MODIS instrument on-board Aqua and Terra satellite platforms. PAR fluxes are partitioned into reflected and absorbed components for the ground and canopy. The measurements demonstrate that the instrumentation provides detailed information about the vegetation phenology and variations in reflectance due to snow cover variations and vegetation development. Valuable information about PAR absorption of ground and canopy is obtained that may be linked to vegetation productivity. PMID:22164039

Characterizing Exterior and Interior Tropical Forest Structure Variability with Full-Waveform Airborne LIDAR Data in Lopé, Gabon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marselis, S.; Tang, H.; Blair, J. B.; Hofton, M. A.; Armston, J.; Dubayah, R.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecotones, transition zones between ecological systems, have been identified as important regions to monitor the effects of environmental and human pressures on ecosystems. To observe such changes, the variability in vegetation horizontal and vertical structure must be characterized. The objective of this study is to quantify changes in vegetation structure in a tropical forest-savanna mosaic using airborne waveform lidar data. The study area is located in the northern part of the Lopé National Park in Gabon and is comprised of the vegetation types: savanna, colonizing forest, monodominant Okoumé forest, young Marantaceae forest and mixed Marantaceae forest. The lidar data were collected by the Land Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS) in early March 2016, during the AfriSAR campaign. Metrics derived from the LVIS waveforms were then used to classify the five main vegetation types and characterize observed structural variability within types and across ecotones. Several supervised and unsupervised classification alogrithms, in combination with statistical analysis, were applied. The investigated methods are promising in their use to directly describe the structural variability within and between different vegetation types, map these vegetation types and the extent and location of their transition zones, and to characterize, among other attributes, the sharpness and width of such ecotones. These results provide important information in ecosystem studies as these methods can be used to study changes in vegetation structure, species-specific habitat, or the effects of deforestation and other human and natural pressures on the exterior and interior forest structure. These methods thus provide ample opportunity to assess the vegetation structure in degraded and second growth tropical forests to explore effects of e.g. grazing, logging or fragmentation. From this study we can conclude that lidar waveform remote sensing is highly useful in distinguishing vegetation types and their transition zones which will be increasingly important when assessing the impact of natural and human pressures on the world's tropical forests.

Climate and anthropogenic impacts on forest vegetation derived from satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoran, M.; Savastru, R.; Savastru, D.; Tautan, M.; Miclos, S.; Baschir, L.

2010-09-01

Vegetation and climate interact through a series of complex feedbacks, which are not very well understood. The patterns of forest vegetation are largely determined by temperature, precipitation, solar irradiance, soil conditions and CO2 concentration. Vegetation impacts climate directly through moisture, energy, and momentum exchanges with the atmosphere and indirectly through biogeochemical processes that alter atmospheric CO2 concentration. Changes in forest vegetation land cover/use alter the surface albedo and radiation fluxes, leading to a local temperature change and eventually a vegetation response. This albedo (energy) feedback is particularly important when forests mask snow cover. Forest vegetation-climate feedback regimes are designated based on the temporal correlations between the vegetation and the surface temperature and precipitation. The different feedback regimes are linked to the relative importance of vegetation and soil moisture in determining land-atmosphere interactions. Forest vegetation phenology constitutes an efficient bio-indicator of impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes and a key parameter for understanding and modeling vegetation-climate interactions. Climate variability represents the ensemble of net radiation, precipitation, wind and temperature characteristic for a region in a certain time scale (e.g.monthly, seasonal annual). The temporal and/or spatial sensitivity of forest vegetation dynamics to climate variability is used to characterize the quantitative relationship between these two quantities in temporal and/or spatial scales. So, climate variability has a great impact on the forest vegetation dynamics. Satellite remote sensing is a very useful tool to assess the main phenological events based on tracking significant changes on temporal trajectories of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIs), which requires NDVI time-series with good time resolution, over homogeneous area, cloud-free and not affected by atmospheric and geometric effects and variations in sensor characteristics (calibration, spectral responses). Spatio-temporal forest vegetation dynamics have been quantified as the total amount of vegetation (mean NDVI) and the seasonal difference (annual NDVI amplitude) by a time series analysis of NDVI satellite images over 1989 - 2009 period for a forest ecosystem placed in the North-Eastern part of Bucharest town, Romania, from IKONOS and LANDSAT TM and ETM satellite images and meteorological data. A climate indicator (CI) was created from meteorological data (precipitation over net radiation). The relationships between the vegetation dynamics and the CI have been determined spatially and temporally. The driest test regions prove to be the most sensitive to climate impact. The spatial and temporal patterns of the mean NDVI are the same, while they are partially different for the seasonal difference. For investigated test area, considerable NDVI decline was observed for drought events during 2003 and 2007 years. Under stress conditions, it is evident that environmental factors such as soil type, parent material, and topography are not correlated with NDVI dynamics. Specific aim of this paper was to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of climatic changes on forest systems and its biodiversity as well as on adjacent environment areas and to provide early warning strategies on the basis of spectral information derived from satellite data regarding atmospheric effects of forest biome degradation .

75 FR 54085 - Divide Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; Colorado; Big Moose Vegetation Management...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-03

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Divide Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; Colorado; Big Moose Vegetation Management Project AGENCY: Forest Service, Rio Grande National Forest, USDA. ACTION: Corrected Notice of Intent to prepare an environmental impact statement. DATES: The draft...

Effects of climate and lifeform on dry matter yield (epsilon) from simulations using BIOME BGC. [ecosystem process model for vegetation biomass production using daily absorbed photosynthetically active radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunt, E. R., Jr.; Running, Steven W.

1992-01-01

An ecosystem process simulation model, BIOME-BGC, is used in a sensitivity analysis to determine the factors that may cause the dry matter yield (epsilon) and annual net primary production to vary for different ecosystems. At continental scales, epsilon is strongly correlated with annual precipitation. At a single location, year-to-year variation in net primary production (NPP) and epsilon is correlated with either annual precipitation or minimum air temperatures. Simulations indicate that forests have lower epsilon than grasslands. The most sensitive parameter affecting forest epsilon is the total amount of living woody biomass, which affects NPP by increasing carbon loss by maintenance respiration. A global map of woody biomass should significantly improve estimates of global NPP using remote sensing.

Estimating riparian understory vegetation cover with beta regression and copula models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eskelson, Bianca N.I.; Madsen, Lisa; Hagar, Joan C.; Temesgen, Hailemariam

2011-01-01

Understory vegetation communities are critical components of forest ecosystems. As a result, the importance of modeling understory vegetation characteristics in forested landscapes has become more apparent. Abundance measures such as shrub cover are bounded between 0 and 1, exhibit heteroscedastic error variance, and are often subject to spatial dependence. These distributional features tend to be ignored when shrub cover data are analyzed. The beta distribution has been used successfully to describe the frequency distribution of vegetation cover. Beta regression models ignoring spatial dependence (BR) and accounting for spatial dependence (BRdep) were used to estimate percent shrub cover as a function of topographic conditions and overstory vegetation structure in riparian zones in western Oregon. The BR models showed poor explanatory power (pseudo-R2 ≤ 0.34) but outperformed ordinary least-squares (OLS) and generalized least-squares (GLS) regression models with logit-transformed response in terms of mean square prediction error and absolute bias. We introduce a copula (COP) model that is based on the beta distribution and accounts for spatial dependence. A simulation study was designed to illustrate the effects of incorrectly assuming normality, equal variance, and spatial independence. It showed that BR, BRdep, and COP models provide unbiased parameter estimates, whereas OLS and GLS models result in slightly biased estimates for two of the three parameters. On the basis of the simulation study, 93–97% of the GLS, BRdep, and COP confidence intervals covered the true parameters, whereas OLS and BR only resulted in 84–88% coverage, which demonstrated the superiority of GLS, BRdep, and COP over OLS and BR models in providing standard errors for the parameter estimates in the presence of spatial dependence.

A Complex Network Theory Approach for the Spatial Distribution of Fire Breaks in Heterogeneous Forest Landscapes for the Control of Wildland Fires

PubMed Central

Russo, Lucia; Russo, Paola; Siettos, Constantinos I.

2016-01-01

Based on complex network theory, we propose a computational methodology which addresses the spatial distribution of fuel breaks for the inhibition of the spread of wildland fires on heterogeneous landscapes. This is a two-level approach where the dynamics of fire spread are modeled as a random Markov field process on a directed network whose edge weights are determined by a Cellular Automata model that integrates detailed GIS, landscape and meteorological data. Within this framework, the spatial distribution of fuel breaks is reduced to the problem of finding network nodes (small land patches) which favour fire propagation. Here, this is accomplished by exploiting network centrality statistics. We illustrate the proposed approach through (a) an artificial forest of randomly distributed density of vegetation, and (b) a real-world case concerning the island of Rhodes in Greece whose major part of its forest was burned in 2008. Simulation results show that the proposed methodology outperforms the benchmark/conventional policy of fuel reduction as this can be realized by selective harvesting and/or prescribed burning based on the density and flammability of vegetation. Interestingly, our approach reveals that patches with sparse density of vegetation may act as hubs for the spread of the fire. PMID:27780249

A Complex Network Theory Approach for the Spatial Distribution of Fire Breaks in Heterogeneous Forest Landscapes for the Control of Wildland Fires.

PubMed

Russo, Lucia; Russo, Paola; Siettos, Constantinos I

2016-01-01

Based on complex network theory, we propose a computational methodology which addresses the spatial distribution of fuel breaks for the inhibition of the spread of wildland fires on heterogeneous landscapes. This is a two-level approach where the dynamics of fire spread are modeled as a random Markov field process on a directed network whose edge weights are determined by a Cellular Automata model that integrates detailed GIS, landscape and meteorological data. Within this framework, the spatial distribution of fuel breaks is reduced to the problem of finding network nodes (small land patches) which favour fire propagation. Here, this is accomplished by exploiting network centrality statistics. We illustrate the proposed approach through (a) an artificial forest of randomly distributed density of vegetation, and (b) a real-world case concerning the island of Rhodes in Greece whose major part of its forest was burned in 2008. Simulation results show that the proposed methodology outperforms the benchmark/conventional policy of fuel reduction as this can be realized by selective harvesting and/or prescribed burning based on the density and flammability of vegetation. Interestingly, our approach reveals that patches with sparse density of vegetation may act as hubs for the spread of the fire.

Are glacials "dry" - and in what sense?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheff, J.; Seager, R.; Coats, S.; Liu, H.

2016-12-01

Glacial maxima during the Pleistocene are generally thought to be arid on land, with a few regional exceptions. Recent work on future climate change, however, has found that different wetness-related variables have opposite-signed responses over large portions of the continents, belying simple ideas of local "drying" or "wetting" with global temperature change in models. Here, we show that this behavior extends to simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum as well: the continents are modeled to have generally wetter topsoils and higher values of standard climate-wetness metrics in the LGM than in the preindustrial, as well as generally lower precipitation and ubiquitously lower photosynthesis (likely driven by the low CO2), with the streamflow response falling in between. Is this model-derived view of the LGM an accurate one? Using a large community pollen and plant-fossil compilation, we confirm that LGM grasslands and open woodlands grew at many sites of present potential forest, seasonal or dry forests at many sites of present potential rain- or seasonal forests, and so forth, while changes in the opposite sense were extremely few and spatially confined. We show that this strongly resembles the simulated photosynthesis changes, but not the simulated streamflow or soil moisture changes. Meanwhile, published LGM lake-level estimates resemble the simulated streamflow changes, but not the photosynthesis changes. Thus, the last glacial does not appear to be systematically "dry" outside the high latitudes, but merely carbon-starved. Similarly, local findings of reduced or more open vegetation at the LGM (e.g. from pollen, carbon isotopes, or dustiness) do not indicate local "aridity" unless corroborating hydrological proxies are also found. Finally, this work suggests that glacial-era evidence of open vegetation with high lake levels (as in the eastern Mediterranean) is not odd or paradoxical, but entirely consistent with climate model output.

Middle Pliocene vegetation: Reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.; Fleming, R.F.

1996-01-01

The general characteristics of global vegetation during the middle Pliocene warm period can be reconstructed from fossil pollen and plant megafossil data. The largest differences between Pliocene vegetation and that of today occurred at high latitudes in both hemispheres, where warming was pronounced relative to today. In the Northern Hemisphere coniferous forests lived in the modern tundra and polar desert regions, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere southern beech apparently grew in coastal areas of Antarctica. Pliocene middle latitude vegetation differed less, although moister-than-modern conditions supported forest and woodland growth in some regions now covered by steppe or grassland. Pliocene tropical vegetation reflects essentially modern conditions in some regions and slightly cooler-than-or warmer-than- modern climates in other areas. Changes in topography induced by tectonics may be responsible for many of the climatic changes since the Pliocene in both middle and lower latitudes. However, the overall latitudinal progression of climatic conditions on land parallels that seen in the reconstruction of middle Pliocene sea-surface temperatures. Pliocene paleovegetational data was employed to construct a 2????2?? global grid of estimated mid-Pliocene vegetational cover for use as boundary conditions for numerical General Circulation Model simulations of middle Pliocene climates. Continental outlines and topography were first modified to represent the Pliocene landscape on the 2????2?? grid. A modern 1????1?? vegetation grid was simplified and mapped on this Pliocene grid, and then modified following general geographic trends evident in the Pliocene paleovegetation data set.

Impact of Land Cover Characterization and Properties on Snow Albedo in Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Bartlett, P. A.; Chan, E.; Montesano, P.

2017-12-01

The simulation of winter albedo in boreal and northern environments has been a particular challenge for land surface modellers. Assessments of output from CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models have revealed that many simulations are characterized by overestimation of albedo in the boreal forest. Recent studies suggest that inaccurate representation of vegetation distribution, improper simulation of leaf area index, and poor treatment of canopy-snow processes are the primary causes of albedo errors. While several land cover datasets are commonly used to derive plant functional types (PFT) for use in climate models, new land cover and vegetation datasets with higher spatial resolution have become available in recent years. In this study, we compare the spatial distribution of the dominant PFTs and canopy cover fractions based on different land cover datasets, and present results from offline simulations of the latest version Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) over the northern Hemisphere land. We discuss the impact of land cover representation and surface properties on winter albedo simulations in climate models.

Field guide for forested plant associations of the Wenatchee National Forest.

Treesearch

T.R. Lillybridge; B.L. Kovalchik; C.K. Williams; B.G. Smith

1995-01-01

A classification of forest vegetation is presented for the Wenatchee National Forest (NF). It is based on potential vegetation, with the plant association as the basic unit. The sample includes about 570 intensive plots and 840 reconnaissance plots distributed across the Wenatchee National Forest and the southwest portion of the Okanogan National Forest from 1975...

Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.

2018-02-01

Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

Unusual forest growth decline in boreal North America covaries with the retreat of Arctic sea ice.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Guo, Xiao Jing; De Jong, Rogier; Kinnard, Christophe; Bernier, Pierre; Raulier, Frédéric

2014-03-01

The 20th century was a pivotal period at high northern latitudes as it marked the onset of rapid climatic warming brought on by major anthropogenic changes in global atmospheric composition. In parallel, Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing over the period of available satellite data records. Here, we document how these changes influenced vegetation productivity in adjacent eastern boreal North America. To do this, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, model simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and tree-ring width measurements covering the last 300 years. Climatic and proxy-climatic data sets were used to explore the relationships between vegetation productivity and Arctic sea ice concentration and extent, and temperatures. Results indicate that an unusually large number of black spruce (Picea mariana) trees entered into a period of growth decline during the late-20th century (62% of sampled trees; n = 724 cross sections of age >70 years). This finding is coherent with evidence encoded in NDVI and simulated NPP data. Analyses of climatic and vegetation productivity relationships indicate that the influence of recent climatic changes in the studied forests has been via the enhanced moisture stress (i.e. greater water demands) and autotrophic respiration amplified by the declining sea ice concentration in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The recent decline strongly contrasts with other growth reduction events that occurred during the 19th century, which were associated with cooling and high sea ice severity. The recent decline of vegetation productivity is the first one to occur under circumstances related to excess heat in a 300-year period, and further culminates with an intensifying wildfire regime in the region. Our results concur with observations from other forest ecosystems about intensifying temperature-driven drought stress and tree mortality with ongoing climatic changes. © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Natural Resources Canada.

Integrated evaluation of the vulnerability to thermokarst disturbance and its implications for the regional carbon balance in boreal Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helene, G.; Lara, M. J.; McGuire, A. D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Bolton, W. R.; Romanovsky, V. E.

2017-12-01

Our capacity to project future ecosystem trajectories in northern permafrost regions depends on our ability to characterize complex interactions between climatic and ecological processes at play in the soil, the vegetation, and the atmosphere. We present a study that uses remote sensing analyses, field observations, and data synthesis to inform models for the prediction of ecosystem responses to climate change in the boreal zone of Alaska. Recent warming, altered precipitation and fire regimes are driving permafrost degradation, threatening to mobilize vast reservoirs of ancient carbon previously protected from decomposition. Although large scale, progressive, top-down permafrost thaw have been well studied and represented in high-latitude ecosystem models, the consequences of abrupt and local thermokarst disturbances (TK) are less well understood. To fill this gap, we conducted a detection analysis characterizing 60 years of land cover change in the Tanana Flats, a wetland complex subjected to TK disturbance in Interior Alaska, using aerial and satellite images. We observed a nonlinear loss of permafrost plateau forest associated with TK and driven by precipitation and forest fragmentation. The results of this analysis were integrated into the Alaska Thermokarst Model (ATM), a state-and-transition model that simulates land cover change associated with TK disturbance. Thermokarst-related land cover change was simulated from 2000 to 2100 across the Tanana Flats. By 2100, the model predicts a mean decrease of 7.4% (sd 1.8%) in permafrost plateau forests associated with an increase in TK fens and bogs. Transitions from permafrost plateau forests to TK wetlands are accompanied with changes in physical and biogeochemical processes affecting ecosystem carbon balance. We evaluated the consequences of TK disturbances on the regional carbon balance by coupling outputs from the ATM and from a process-based biogeochemical model. We used long-term field observations of vegetation and soil physical and biogeochemical attributes to develop new parameterizations for TK wetlands and permafrost plateau forest land cover types. Preliminary simulations from 2000 to 2100 estimate that the conversion of permafrost plateau forest to young TK wetlands would result in a 7.5% (sd 3.5%) decrease in Net Ecosystem Exchange.

75 FR 66719 - Caribou-Targhee National Forest; Idaho and Wyoming; Revision of the Notice of Intent To Prepare a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-29

..., 2007 (72(103):29948-29949, as ``Big Bend Ridge Vegetation Management Project and Timber Sale... gray owl territories affected by vegetation projects. The Forest believes these new approaches to vegetation management would better provide wildlife habitat. The Forest seeks comments on the revised...

76 FR 22075 - Divide Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; CO; Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-20

... Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; CO; Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project AGENCY: Forest... Web site http://www.fs.usda.gov/riogrande under ``Land & Resource Management'', then ``Projects'' on... need for the Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project is move toward achieving long-term desired...

Effects of land cover change on evapotranspiration and streamflow of small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin, Central Brazi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.; Dias, L. C. P.; Macedo, M.; Coe, M. T.; Neill, C.

2014-12-01

This study assess the influence of land cover changes on evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin (Mato Grosso state, Brazil). Streamflow was measured in catchments with uniform land use for September 1, 2008 to August 31, 2010. We used models to simulate evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four most common land cover types found in the Upper Xingu: tropical forest, cerrado (savanna), pasture, and soybean croplands. We used INLAND to perform single point simulations considering tropical rainforest, cerrado and pasturelands, and AgroIBIS for croplands. Converting natural vegetation to agriculture substantially modifies evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments. Measured mean streamflow in soy catchments was about three times greater than that of forest catchments, while the mean annual amplitude of flow in soy catchments was more than twice that of forest catchments. Simulated mean annual evapotranspiration was 39% lower in agricultural ecosystems (pasture and soybean cropland) than in natural ecosystems (tropical rainforest and cerrado). Observed and simulated mean annual streamflows in agricultural ecosystems were more than 100% higher than in natural ecosystems. The accuracy of the simulations is improved by using field-measured soil hydraulic properties. The inclusion of local measurements of key soil parameters is likely to improve hydrological simulations in other tropical regions.

Effects of land cover change on evapotranspiration and streamflow of small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin, Central Brazi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.; Dias, L. C. P.; Macedo, M.; Coe, M. T.; Neill, C.

2015-12-01

This study assess the influence of land cover changes on evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments in the Upper Xingu River Basin (Mato Grosso state, Brazil). Streamflow was measured in catchments with uniform land use for September 1, 2008 to August 31, 2010. We used models to simulate evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four most common land cover types found in the Upper Xingu: tropical forest, cerrado (savanna), pasture, and soybean croplands. We used INLAND to perform single point simulations considering tropical rainforest, cerrado and pasturelands, and AgroIBIS for croplands. Converting natural vegetation to agriculture substantially modifies evapotranspiration and streamflow in small catchments. Measured mean streamflow in soy catchments was about three times greater than that of forest catchments, while the mean annual amplitude of flow in soy catchments was more than twice that of forest catchments. Simulated mean annual evapotranspiration was 39% lower in agricultural ecosystems (pasture and soybean cropland) than in natural ecosystems (tropical rainforest and cerrado). Observed and simulated mean annual streamflows in agricultural ecosystems were more than 100% higher than in natural ecosystems. The accuracy of the simulations is improved by using field-measured soil hydraulic properties. The inclusion of local measurements of key soil parameters is likely to improve hydrological simulations in other tropical regions.

Trend analysis of vegetation in Louisiana's Atchafalaya river basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neil, Calvin P.; deSteiguer, J. Edward; North, Gary W.

1978-01-01

The purpose of the study was to determine vegetation succession trends; produce a current vegetation map of the basin; and to develop a mathematical model capable of predicting vegetation changes based on hydrologic factors. A statistical relationship of forests and hydrological variables with forest succession constraints predicted forest acreage totals for 16 forest categories within 70% or better of actual values in two-thirds of the cases. Using time-lapsed photography covering 42 years, 23 categories were described. The succession trend of vegetation since 1930, by sedimentation, had been toward mixed hardwoods, except for isolated areas. Satellite MSS Band 7 imagery was used to map the current vegetation into three main categories and for assessment of acreage. Additionally, a geological anomaly was recognized on satellite imagery indication an effect on drainage and sedimentation.

Carbon Storage in an Extensive Karst-distributed Region of Southwestern China based on Multiple Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, C.; Wu, Y.; Yang, H.; Ni, J.

2015-12-01

Accurate estimation of carbon storage is crucial to better understand the processes of global and regional carbon cycles and to more precisely project ecological and economic scenarios for the future. Southwestern China has broadly and continuously distribution of karst landscapes with harsh and fragile habitats which might lead to rocky desertification, an ecological disaster which has significantly hindered vegetation succession and economic development in karst regions of southwestern China. In this study we evaluated the carbon storage in eight political divisions of southwestern China based on four methods: forest inventory, carbon density based on field investigations, CASA model driven by remote sensing data, and BIOME4/LPJ global vegetation models driven by climate data. The results show that: (1) The total vegetation carbon storage (including agricultural ecosystem) is 6763.97 Tg C based on the carbon density, and the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage (above 20cm depth) is 12475.72 Tg C. Sichuan Province (including Chongqing) possess the highest carbon storage in both vegetation and soil (1736.47 Tg C and 4056.56 Tg C, respectively) among the eight political divisions because of the higher carbon density and larger distribution area. The vegetation carbon storage in Hunan Province is the smallest (565.30 Tg C), and the smallest SOC storage (1127.40 Tg C) is in Guangdong Province; (2) Based on forest inventory data, the total aboveground carbon storage in the woody vegetation is 2103.29 Tg C. The carbon storage in Yunnan Province (819.01 Tg C) is significantly higher than other areas while tropical rainforests and seasonal forests in Yunnan contribute the maximum of the woody vegetation carbon storage (account for 62.40% of the total). (3) The net primary production (NPP) simulated by the CASA model is 68.57 Tg C/yr, while the forest NPP in the non-karst region (account for 72.50% of the total) is higher than that in the karst region. (4) BIOME4 and LPJ models predicted higher carbon storages than the CASA model with various spatial patterns. More investigations should be further performed to clarify processes of carbon cycle in ecosystems on karst terrain and to accelerate the development of a regional dynamic vegetation model which was appropriate for karst ecosystems.

Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

2014-12-01

The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations. Biogeosciences Discuss 2014, 11:7151-7188. Bond-Lamberty, B et al: Coupling earth system and integrated assessment models: The problem of steady state. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss 2014, 7: 1499-1524, doi:10.5194/gmdd-7-1499-2014.

Multi-scale predictions of coniferous forest mortality in the northern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, N. G.

2015-12-01

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our incomplete understanding of the fundamental physiological thresholds of vegetation mortality during drought limits our ability to accurately simulate future vegetation distributions and associated climate feedbacks. Here we integrate experimental evidence with models to show potential widespread loss of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET; ~ conifers) within the Southwest USA by 2100; with rising temperature being the primary cause of mortality. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ypd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, stomatal and hydraulic conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. Empirical and mechanistic models accurately predicted NET Ypd, and 91% of predictions (10/11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the 21st century due to temperature rise. Completely independent global models predicted >50% loss of northern hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the findings for Southwest USA. The global models disagreed with the ecosystem process models in regards to future mortality in Southwest USA, however, highlighting the potential underestimates of future NET mortality as simulated by the global models and signifying the importance of improving regional predictions. Taken together, these results from the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict global-scale conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

2017-03-28

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Natural vegetation groups and canopy chemical markers in a dry subtropical forest on calcareous substrate: the vegetation of Mona Island, Puerto Rico

Treesearch

E. Medina; E.H. Helmer; E. Melendez-Ackerman; H. Marcano-Vega

2014-01-01

Mona Island is the third largest island in the archipelago of Puerto Rico located about 70 km west of the main island. Presently it is a wilderness refuge that contains well-preserved arboreal and shrubby vegetation, and distinct cactus forests, covering the calcareous, elevated plateau. During a forest inventory conducted by the US Forest Service, we obtained leaves...

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses.

PubMed

Garcia, Elizabeth S; Swann, Abigail L S; Villegas, Juan C; Breshears, David D; Law, Darin J; Saleska, Scott R; Stark, Scott C

2016-01-01

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.

[Spatial pattern of forest biomass and its influencing factors in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Heilongjiang Province, China].

PubMed

Wang, Xiao-Li; Chang, Yu; Chen, Hong-Wei; Hu, Yuan-Man; Jiao, Lin-Lin; Feng, Yu-Ting; Wu, Wen; Wu, Hai-Feng

2014-04-01

Based on field inventory data and vegetation index EVI (enhanced vegetation index), the spatial pattern of the forest biomass in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Heilongjiang Province was quantitatively analyzed. Using the spatial analysis and statistics tools in ArcGIS software, the impacts of climatic zone, elevation, slope, aspect and vegetation type on the spatial pattern of forest biomass were explored. The results showed that the forest biomass in the Great Xing'an Mountains was 350 Tg and spatially aggregated with great increasing potentials. Forest biomass density in the cold temperate humid zone (64.02 t x hm(-2)) was higher than that in the temperate humid zone (60.26 t x hm(-2)). The biomass density of each vegetation type was in the order of mixed coniferous forest (65.13 t x hm(-2)) > spruce-fir forest (63.92 t x hm(-2)) > Pinus pumila-Larix gmelinii forest (63.79 t x hm(-2)) > Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica forest (61.97 t x hm(-2)) > Larix gmelinii forest (61.40 t x hm(-2)) > deciduous broadleaf forest (58.96 t x hm(-2)). With the increasing elevation and slope, the forest biomass density first decreased and then increased. The forest biomass density in the shady slopes was greater than that in the sunny slopes. The spatial pattern of forest biomass in the Great Xing' an Mountains exhibited a heterogeneous pattern due to the variation of climatic zone, vegetation type and topographical factor. This spatial heterogeneity needs to be accounted when evaluating forest biomass at regional scales.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Friend, Andrew D; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F Ian

2014-03-04

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Friend, Andrew D.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T.; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D.; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R.; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F. Ian

2014-01-01

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended. PMID:24344265

Forest gradient response in Sierran landscapes: the physical template

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urban, Dean L.; Miller, Carol; Halpin, Patrick N.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2000-01-01

Vegetation pattern on landscapes is the manifestation of physical gradients, biotic response to these gradients, and disturbances. Here we focus on the physical template as it governs the distribution of mixed-conifer forests in California's Sierra Nevada. We extended a forest simulation model to examine montane environmental gradients, emphasizing factors affecting the water balance in these summer-dry landscapes. The model simulates the soil moisture regime in terms of the interaction of water supply and demand: supply depends on precipitation and water storage, while evapotranspirational demand varies with solar radiation and temperature. The forest cover itself can affect the water balance via canopy interception and evapotranspiration. We simulated Sierran forests as slope facets, defined as gridded stands of homogeneous topographic exposure, and verified simulated gradient response against sample quadrats distributed across Sequoia National Park. We then performed a modified sensitivity analysis of abiotic factors governing the physical gradient. Importantly, the model's sensitivity to temperature, precipitation, and soil depth varies considerably over the physical template, particularly relative to elevation. The physical drivers of the water balance have characteristic spatial scales that differ by orders of magnitude. Across large spatial extents, temperature and precipitation as defined by elevation primarily govern the location of the mixed conifer zone. If the analysis is constrained to elevations within the mixed-conifer zone, local topography comes into play as it influences drainage. Soil depth varies considerably at all measured scales, and is especially dominant at fine (within-stand) scales. Physical site variables can influence soil moisture deficit either by affecting water supply or water demand; these effects have qualitatively different implications for forest response. These results have clear implications about purely inferential approaches to gradient analysis, and bear strongly on our ability to use correlative approaches in assessing the potential responses of montane forests to anthropogenic climatic change.

Interactions with successional stage and nutrient status determines the life-form-specific effects of increased soil temperature on boreal forest floor vegetation.

PubMed

Hedwall, Per-Ola; Skoglund, Jerry; Linder, Sune

2015-02-01

The boreal forest is one of the largest terrestrial biomes and plays a key role for the global carbon balance and climate. The forest floor vegetation has a strong influence on the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the forests and is sensitive to changes in temperature conditions and nutrient availability. Additionally, the effects of climate warming on forest floor vegetation have been suggested to be moderated by the tree layer. Data on the effects of soil warming on forest floor vegetation from the boreal forest are, however, very scarce. We studied the effects on the forest floor vegetation in a long-term (18 years) soil warming and fertilization experiment in a Norway spruce stand in northern Sweden. During the first 9 years, warming favored early successional species such as grasses and forbs at the expense of dwarf shrubs and bryophytes in unfertilized stands, while the effects were smaller after fertilization. Hence, warming led to significant changes in species composition and an increase in species richness in the open canopy nutrient limited forest. After another 9 years of warming and increasing tree canopy closure, most of the initial effects had ceased, indicating an interaction between forest succession and warming. The only remaining effect of warming was on the abundance of bryophytes, which contrary to the initial phase was strongly favored by warming. We propose that the suggested moderating effects of the tree layer are specific to plant life-form and conclude that the successional phase of the forest may have a considerable impact on the effects of climate change on forest floor vegetation and its feedback effects on the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and thus on the climate.

Interactions with successional stage and nutrient status determines the life-form-specific effects of increased soil temperature on boreal forest floor vegetation

PubMed Central

Hedwall, Per-Ola; Skoglund, Jerry; Linder, Sune

2015-01-01

The boreal forest is one of the largest terrestrial biomes and plays a key role for the global carbon balance and climate. The forest floor vegetation has a strong influence on the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the forests and is sensitive to changes in temperature conditions and nutrient availability. Additionally, the effects of climate warming on forest floor vegetation have been suggested to be moderated by the tree layer. Data on the effects of soil warming on forest floor vegetation from the boreal forest are, however, very scarce. We studied the effects on the forest floor vegetation in a long-term (18 years) soil warming and fertilization experiment in a Norway spruce stand in northern Sweden. During the first 9 years, warming favored early successional species such as grasses and forbs at the expense of dwarf shrubs and bryophytes in unfertilized stands, while the effects were smaller after fertilization. Hence, warming led to significant changes in species composition and an increase in species richness in the open canopy nutrient limited forest. After another 9 years of warming and increasing tree canopy closure, most of the initial effects had ceased, indicating an interaction between forest succession and warming. The only remaining effect of warming was on the abundance of bryophytes, which contrary to the initial phase was strongly favored by warming. We propose that the suggested moderating effects of the tree layer are specific to plant life-form and conclude that the successional phase of the forest may have a considerable impact on the effects of climate change on forest floor vegetation and its feedback effects on the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and thus on the climate. PMID:25750720

User's Guide to the Western Root Disease Model, Version 3.0

Treesearch

Susan J. Frankel

1998-01-01

Effects of Armillaria spp., Phellinus weirii, Heterobasidion annosum, or bark beetles on stand dynamics are represented by the Western Root Disease Model,Version 3.0. This model, which operates in conjunction with the Forest Vegetation Simulator, can be used to evaluate the effects of many silvicultural practices. This guide contains instructions for use, detailed...

Effect of tree roots on shallow-seated landslides

Treesearch

Kazutoki Abe Abe; Robert R. Ziemer

1991-01-01

Forest vegetation, especially tree roots, helps stabilize hillslopes by reinforcing soil shear strength. To evaluate the effect of tree roots on slope stability, information about the amount of roots and their strength should be known. A simulation model for the root distribution of Cryptomeria japonica was proposed where the number of roots in each 0.5-cm diameter...

Incorporation of genetic gain into growth projections of Douglas-Fir using ORGANON and the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

Peter J. Gould; David D. Marshall

2010-01-01

Growth models for coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) are generally based on measurements of stands that are genetically unimproved (or woods-run); therefore, they cannot be expected to accurately project the development of stands that originate from improved seedlots. In this report, we...

Chapter 4: Overview of the vegetation management treatment economic analysis module in the integrated landscape assessment project

Treesearch

Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

2014-01-01

Forest land provides various ecosystem services, including timber, biomass, and carbon sequestration. Estimating trends in these ecosystem services is essential for assessing potential outcomes of landscape management scenarios. However, the state-and transition models used in the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project for simulating landscape changes over time do not...

The influence of fuels treatment and landscape arrangement on simulated fire behavior, southern Cascade Range, California

Treesearch

David A. Schmidt; Alan H. Taylor; Carl N. Skinner

2008-01-01

Wildfire behavior can be modified by altering the quantity, structure, and arrangement of fuel (flammable vegetation) by silvicultural treatments such as forest thinning and prescribed burning. The type and arrangement (including landscape location) of treated areas have been demonstrated to influence wildfire behavior. This study analyzes the response of several key...

Young-stand management options and their implications for wood quality and other values.

Treesearch

R. James Barbour; Richard R. Zaborskeb; Michael H. McClellan; Linda Christian; Donald. Golnick

2005-01-01

This study used the forest vegetation Simulator (FVS), empirical wood product recovery information, and expert judgments to examine volume production and potential revenues for different silvicultural prescriptions grown to rotation ages of 70, 110, and 150 years. Our intention was to provide policymakers and managers with some of the information needed to evaluate the...

Vegetation responses to simulated emerald ash borer infestation in Fraxinus nigra dominated wetlands of Upper Michigan, USA

Treesearch

Joshua C. Davis; Joseph P. Shannon; Nicholas W. Bolton; Randall K. Kolka; Thomas G. Pypker

2017-01-01

The invasive emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)) is a significant threat to biodiversity and ecosystem processes in North American forests. Of particular concern is the fate of Fraxinus nigra (black ash), which is frequently a dominant canopy species across much of its range. To...

Development of external regeneration models for FVS: Another wrench in the toolkit

Treesearch

Donald C. E. Robinson

2008-01-01

Despite more than three decades of development, only one full-featured regeneration model has been developed for the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). Regeneration remains a challenging problem because of its all-or-none nature: the need for field inventories that span the vast range of stand structure conditions; the need to accommodate environmental and climatic...

The Effect of Data Quality on Short-term Growth Model Projections

Treesearch

David Gartner

2005-01-01

This study was designed to determine the effect of FIA's data quality on short-term growth model projections. The data from Georgia's 1996 statewide survey were used for the Southern variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator to predict Georgia's first annual panel. The effect of several data error sources on growth modeling prediction errors...

Towards an improved LAI collection protocol via simulated field-based PAR sensing

DOE PAGES

Yao, Wei; Van Leeuwen, Martin; Romanczyk, Paul; ...

2016-07-14

In support of NASA’s next-generation spectrometer—the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI)—we are working towards assessing sub-pixel vegetation structure from imaging spectroscopy data. Of particular interest is Leaf Area Index (LAI), which is an informative, yet notoriously challenging parameter to efficiently measure in situ. While photosynthetically-active radiation (PAR) sensors have been validated for measuring crop LAI, there is limited literature on the efficacy of PAR-based LAI measurement in the forest environment. This study (i) validates PAR-based LAI measurement in forest environments, and (ii) proposes a suitable collection protocol, which balances efficiency with measurement variation, e.g., due to sun flecks and various-sized canopymore » gaps. A synthetic PAR sensor model was developed in the Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) model and used to validate LAI measurement based on first-principles and explicitly-known leaf geometry. Simulated collection parameters were adjusted to empirically identify optimal collection protocols. Furthermore, these collection protocols were then validated in the field by correlating PAR-based LAI measurement to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) extracted from the “classic” Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS-C) data (R 2 was 0.61). The results indicate that our proposed collecting protocol is suitable for measuring the LAI of sparse forest (LAI < 3–5 ( m 2/m 2)).« less

An Examination of Drought-Induced Hydraulic Stress in Conifer Forests Using a Coupled Ecohydrologic Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simeone, C.; Maneta, M. P.; Holden, Z. A.; Dobrowski, S.; Sala, A.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that increases in drought stress due to climate change will increase forest mortality across the western U.S. Although ecohydrologic models used to study regional hydrologic stress response in forests have made rapid advances in recent years, they often incorporate simplified descriptions of the local hydrology, do not implement an explicit description of plant hydraulics, and do not permit to study the tradeoffs between frequency, intensity, and accumulation of hydrologic stress in vegetation. We use the spatially-distributed, mechanistic ecohydrologic model Ech2o, which effectively captures spatial variations in both hydrology, energy exchanges, and regional climate to simulate high-resolution tree hydraulics, estimating soil and leaf water potential, tree effective water conductance, and percent loss of conductivity in the xylem (PLC) at 250 meter resolution and sub-daily timestep across a topographically complex landscape. Tree hydraulics are simulated assuming a diffusive process in the soil-tree-atmosphere continuum. We use PLC to develop a vegetation dynamic stress index that scales plant-level processes to the landscape scale, and that takes into account the temporal accumulation of instantaneous hydraulic stress, growing season length, frequency and duration of drought periods, and plant drought tolerance. The resulting index is interpreted as the probability of drought induced tree mortality in a given location during the simulated period. We apply this index to regions of Northern Idaho and Western Montana. Results show that drought stress is highly spatially variable, sensitive to local-scale hydrologic and atmospheric conditions, and responsive to the recovery rate from individual hydraulic stress episodes.

Assessment of vegetation change in a fire-altered forest landscape

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jakubauskas, Mark E.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Mausel, Paul W.

1990-01-01

This research focused on determining the degree to which differences in burn severity relate to postfire vegetative cover within a Michigan pine forest. Landsat MSS data from June 1973 and TM data from October 1982 were classified using an unsupervised approach to create prefire and postfire cover maps of the study area. Using a raster-based geographic information system (GIS), the maps were compared, and a map of vegetation change was created. An IR/red band ratio from a June 1980 Landsat scene was classified to create a map of three degres of burn severity, which was then compared with the vegetation change map using a GIS. Classification comparisons of pine and deciduous forest classes (1973 to 1982) revealed that the most change in vegetation occurred in areas subjected to the most intense burn. Two classes of regenerating forest comprised the majority of the change, while the remaining change was associated with shrub vegetation or another forest class.

75 FR 63434 - Kootenai National Forest, Lincoln County, Montana; Grizzly Vegetation and Transportation...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-15

...; Grizzly Vegetation and Transportation Management Project AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. [[Page 63435... Vegetation and Transportation Management Project (Grizzly Project). The Grizzly Project includes vegetation... management changes, including road decommissioning. The project is located in the Grizzly planning subunit on...

Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

2013-01-01

Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

Prediction of understory vegetation cover with airborne lidar in an interior ponderosa pine forest

Treesearch

Brian M. Wing; Martin W. Ritchie; Kevin Boston; Warren B. Cohen; Alix Gitelman; Michael J. Olsen

2012-01-01

Forest understory communities are important components in forest ecosystems providing wildlife habitat and influencing nutrient cycling, fuel loadings, fire behavior and tree species composition over time. One of the most widely utilized understory component metrics is understory vegetation cover, often used as a measure of vegetation abundance. To date, understory...

Seeing the trees for the forest: mapping vegetation biodiversity in coastal Oregon forests.

Treesearch

Sally. Duncan

2003-01-01

In order to address policy issues relating to biodiversity, productivity, and sustainability, we need detailed understanding of forest vegetation at broad geographic and time scales. Most existing maps developed from satellite imagery describe only general characteristics of the upper canopy. Detailed vegetation data are available from regional grids of field plots,...

Relationships between forest cutting and understory vegetation: an overview of eastern hardwood stands

Treesearch

Hewlette S. Crawford

1976-01-01

The impacts of forest cutting upon understory vegetation were evaluated for Ozark oak-hickory and Appalachian oak-pine stands. These findings were related to similar information from other eastern forest types. Production of understory vegetation is related to stand type, stand structure, stand disturbance, and site. Stand type, structure, and site operate together to...

WATERSHED SCALE RAINFALL INTERCEPTION ON TWO FORESTED WATERSHEDS IN THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAINS OF PUERTO RICO

Treesearch

F.N. SCATENA

1990-01-01

Interception losses were monitored for one year and related to vegetation characteristics in two forested watersheds in the Luquillo Experimental Forest of Puerto Rico. Total watershed interception was then modeled by weighting values of throughfall measured in representative areas of different vegetation types by the total watershed area of that vegetation group....

Forest restoration as a strategy to mitigate climate impacts on wildfire, vegetation, and water in semiarid forests.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Frances C; Flatley, William T; Springer, Abraham E; Fulé, Peter Z

2018-06-25

Climate change and wildfire are interacting to drive vegetation change and potentially reduce water quantity and quality in the southwestern United States, Forest restoration is a management approach that could mitigate some of these negative outcomes. However, little information exists on how restoration combined with climate change might influence hydrology across large forest landscapes that incorporate multiple vegetation types and complex fire regimes. We combined spatially explicit vegetation and fire modeling with statistical water and sediment yield models for a large forested landscape (335,000 ha) on the Kaibab Plateau in northern Arizona, USA. Our objective was to assess the impacts of climate change and forest restoration on the future fire regime, forest vegetation, and watershed outputs. Our model results predict that the combination of climate change and high-severity fire will drive forest turnover, biomass declines, and compositional change in future forests. Restoration treatments may reduce the area burned in high-severity fires and reduce conversions from forested to non-forested conditions. Even though mid-elevation forests are the targets of restoration, the treatments are expected to delay the decline of high-elevation spruce-fir, aspen, and mixed conifer forests by reducing the occurrence of high-severity fires that may spread across ecoregions. We estimate that climate-induced vegetation changes will result in annual runoff declines of up to 10%, while restoration reduced or reversed this decline. The hydrologic model suggests that mid-elevation forests, which are the targets of restoration treatments, provide around 80% of runoff in this system and the conservation of mid- to high-elevation forests types provides the greatest benefit in terms of water conservation. We also predict that restoration treatments will conserve water quality by reducing patches of high-severity fire that are associated with high sediment yield. Restoration treatments are a management strategy that may reduce undesirable outcomes for multiple ecosystem services. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.

2012-12-01

We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. Our study, the first application of a coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa, reveals that vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa.

Effects of nontropical forest cover on climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Chou, M.-D.; Arking, A.

1984-01-01

The albedo of a forest with snow on the ground is much less than that of snow-covered low vegetation such as tundra. As a result, simulation of the Northern Hemisphere climate, when fully forested south of a suitably chosen taiga/tundra boundary (ecocline), produces a hemispheric surface air temperature 1.9 K higher than that of an earth devoid of trees. Using variations of the solar constant to force climate changes in the GLAS Multi-Layer Energy Balance Model, the role of snow-albedo feedback in increasing the climate sensitivity to external perturbations is reexamined. The effect of snow-albedo feedback is found to be significantly reduced when a low albedo is used for snow over taiga, south of the fixed latitude of the ecocline. If the ecocline shifts to maintain equilibrium with the new climate - which is presumed to occur in a prolonged perturbation when time is sufficient for trees to grow or die and fall - the feedback is stronger than for a fixed ecocline, especially at high latitudes. However, this snow/vegetation-albedo feedback is still essentially weaker than the snow-albedo feedback in the forest-free case. The loss of forest to agriculture and other land-use would put the present climate further away from that associated with the fully forested earth south of the ecocline and closer to the forest-free case. Thus, the decrease in nontropical forest cover since prehistoric times has probably affected the climate by reducing the temperatures and by increasing the sensitivity to perturbations, with both effects more pronounced at high latitudes.

Quantifying deforestation and forest degradation with thermal response.

PubMed

Lin, Hua; Chen, Yajun; Song, Qinghai; Fu, Peili; Cleverly, James; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Law, Beverly E; Gough, Christopher M; Hörtnagl, Lukas; Di Gennaro, Filippo; Matteucci, Giorgio; Montagnani, Leonardo; Duce, Pierpaolo; Shao, Changliang; Kato, Tomomichi; Bonal, Damien; Paul-Limoges, Eugénie; Beringer, Jason; Grace, John; Fan, Zexin

2017-12-31

Deforestation and forest degradation cause the deterioration of resources and ecosystem services. However, there are still no operational indicators to measure forest status, especially for forest degradation. In the present study, we analysed the thermal response number (TRN, calculated by daily total net radiation divided by daily temperature range) of 163 sites including mature forest, disturbed forest, planted forest, shrubland, grassland, savanna vegetation and cropland. TRN generally increased with latitude, however the regression of TRN against latitude differed among vegetation types. Mature forests are superior as thermal buffers, and had significantly higher TRN than disturbed and planted forests. There was a clear boundary between TRN of forest and non-forest vegetation (i.e. grassland and savanna) with the exception of shrubland, whose TRN overlapped with that of forest vegetation. We propose to use the TRN of local mature forest as the optimal TRN (TRN opt ). A forest with lower than 75% of TRN opt was identified as subjected to significant disturbance, and forests with 66% of TRN opt was the threshold for deforestation within the absolute latitude from 30° to 55°. Our results emphasized the irreplaceable thermal buffer capacity of mature forest. TRN can be used for early warning of deforestation and degradation risk. It is therefore a valuable tool in the effort to protect forests and prevent deforestation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

The effects of forest-savanna-grassland gradients on bird communities of Chiquitano Dry Forests domain, in western Brazil.

PubMed

Godoi, Mauricio N; Souza, Edivaldo O DE

2016-01-01

Different vegetation types are distributed in mountains according to altitude, topography and soil. The composition and structure of bird communities in these areas can change in relation to the vegetation gradient, with particular communities occupying each habitat type. In this study we present the changes in composition, species richness and bird abundance over the gradient of forests, savannas and altitudinal grasslands of Maciço do Urucum, a mountainous region located in the Chiquitano Dry Forests domain in western Brazil. We recorded 165 bird species through qualitative and quantitative methods. Forested savannas, riparian forests and submontane forests presented the highest richness and abundance of birds, while arboreal savannas and altitudinal grasslands had intermediate and low values, respectively. The bird composition was similar between riparian and submontane forests, while other vegetation types present more dissimilar bird communities. Our results show differences in composition, richness and bird abundance among the vegetation types present at Maciço do Urucum, and highlight an important function of vegetation gradients for the conservation of bird communities in mountains. Additionally, this is the first study of the bird communities in the Brazilian Chiquitano Dry Forests, an important domain in the west of Brazil which has been poorly studied.

Use and applicability of the vegetation component of the national site classification system. [Sumter National Forest, South Carolina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, C. A. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Existing vegetation on a site in Sumter National Forest, South Carolina was classified using high altitude aerial optical bar color infrared photography in an effort to determine if the National Site Classification (NSC) system could be used in the heterogeneously forested southeastern United States where it had not previously been used. Results show that the revised UNESCO international classification and mapping of vegetation system, as incorporated into the NSCS, is general enough at the higher levels and specific enough at the lower levels to adequately accommodate densely forested, heterogeneous areas as well as the larger, more homogeneous regions of the Pacific Northwest. The major problem is of existing vegetation versus natural vegetation.

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoogakker, B. A. A.; Smith, R. S.; Singarayer, J. S.; Marchant, R.; Prentice, I. C.; Allen, J. R. M.; Anderson, R. S.; Bhagwat, S. A.; Behling, H.; Borisova, O.; Bush, M.; Correa-Metrio, A.; de Vernal, A.; Finch, J. M.; Fréchette, B.; Lozano-Garcia, S.; Gosling, W. D.; Granoszewski, W.; Grimm, E. C.; Grüger, E.; Hanselman, J.; Harrison, S. P.; Hill, T. R.; Huntley, B.; Jiménez-Moreno, G.; Kershaw, P.; Ledru, M.-P.; Magri, D.; McKenzie, M.; Müller, U.; Nakagawa, T.; Novenko, E.; Penny, D.; Sadori, L.; Scott, L.; Stevenson, J.; Valdes, P. J.; Vandergoes, M.; Velichko, A.; Whitlock, C.; Tzedakis, C.

2016-01-01

A new global synthesis and biomization of long (> 40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented and used with simulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models and the BIOME4 vegetation model to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Simulated biome distributions using BIOME4 driven by HadCM3 and FAMOUS at the global scale over time generally agree well with those inferred from pollen data. Global average areas of grassland and dry shrubland, desert, and tundra biomes show large-scale increases during the Last Glacial Maximum, between ca. 64 and 74 ka BP and cool substages of Marine Isotope Stage 5, at the expense of the tropical forest, warm-temperate forest, and temperate forest biomes. These changes are reflected in BIOME4 simulations of global net primary productivity, showing good agreement between the two models. Such changes are likely to affect terrestrial carbon storage, which in turn influences the stable carbon isotopic composition of seawater as terrestrial carbon is depleted in 13C.