Simulations of Antarctic ice shelves and the Southern Ocean in the POP2x ocean model coupled with the BISICLES ice-sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, Xylar; Martin, Daniel; Price, Stephen; Maltrud, Mathew

2014-05-01

We present initial results from Antarctic, ice-ocean coupled simulations using large-scale ocean circulation and ice-sheet evolution models. This presentation focuses on the ocean model, POP2x, which is a modified version of POP, a fully eddying, global-scale ocean model (Smith and Gent, 2002). POP2x allows for circulation beneath ice shelf cavities using the method of partial top cells (Losch, 2008). Boundary layer physics, which control fresh water and salt exchange at the ice-ocean interface, are implemented following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013) and with results from other idealized ice-ocean coupling test cases (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2012). A companion presentation, 'Fully resolved whole-continent Antarctica simulations using the BISICLES AMR ice sheet model coupled with the POP2x Ocean Model', concentrates more on the ice-sheet model, BISICLES (Cornford et al., 2012), which includes a 1st-order accurate momentum balance (L1L2) and uses block structured, adaptive-mesh refinement to more accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. For idealized test cases focused on marine-ice sheet dynamics, BISICLES output compares very favorably relative to simulations based on the full, nonlinear Stokes momentum balance (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013). Here, we present large-scale (Southern Ocean) simulations using POP2x at 0.1 degree resolution with fixed ice shelf geometries, which are used to obtain and validate modeled submarine melt rates against observations. These melt rates are, in turn, used to force evolution of the BISICLES model. An offline-coupling scheme, which we compare with the ice-ocean coupling work of Goldberg et al. (2012), is then used to sequentially update the sub-shelf cavity geometry seen by POP2x.

Exploring coupled 4D-Var data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Polly; Fowler, Alison; Lawless, Amos; Haines, Keith

2014-05-01

The successful application of data assimilation techniques to operational numerical weather prediction and ocean forecasting systems has led to an increased interest in their use for the initialisation of coupled atmosphere-ocean models in prediction on seasonal to decadal timescales. Coupled data assimilation presents a significant challenge but offers a long list of potential benefits including improved use of near-surface observations, reduction of initialisation shocks in coupled forecasts, and generation of a consistent system state for the initialisation of coupled forecasts across all timescales. In this work we explore some of the fundamental questions in the design of coupled data assimilation systems within the context of an idealised one-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean model. The system is based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) atmosphere model and a K-Profile Parameterisation (KKP) mixed layer ocean model developed by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) climate group at the University of Reading. It employs a strong constraint incremental 4D-Var scheme and is designed to enable the effective exploration of various approaches to performing coupled model data assimilation whilst avoiding many of the issues associated with more complex models. Working with this simple framework enables a greater range and quantity of experiments to be performed. Here, we will describe the development of our simplified single-column coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var assimilation system and present preliminary results from a series of identical twin experiments devised to investigate and compare the behaviour and sensitivities of different coupled data assimilation methodologies. This includes comparing fully and weakly coupled assimilations with uncoupled assimilation, investigating whether coupled assimilation can eliminate or lessen initialisation shock in coupled model forecasts, and exploring the effect of the assimilation window length in coupled assimilations. These experiments will facilitate a greater theoretical understanding of the coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation problem and thus help guide the design and implementation of different coupling strategies within operational systems. This research is funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The ESA funded component is part of the Data Assimilation Projects - Coupled Model Data Assimilation initiative whose goal is to advance data assimilation techniques in fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models (see http://www.esa-da.org/). It is being conducted in parallel to the development of prototype weakly coupled data assimilation systems at both the UK Met Office and ECMWF.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean models of Titan's past

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mckay, Christopher P.; Pollack, James B.; Lunine, Jonathan I.; Courtin, Regis

1993-01-01

The behavior and possible past evolution of fully coupled atmosphere and ocean model of Titan are investigated. It is found that Titan's surface temperature was about 20 K cooler at 4 Gyr ago and will be about 5 K warmer 0.5 Gyr in the future. The change in solar luminosity and the conversion of oceanic CH4 to C2H6 drive the evolution of the ocean and atmosphere over time. Titan appears to have experienced a frozen epoch about 3 Gyr ago independent of whether an ocean is present or not. This finding may have important implications for understanding the inventory of Titan's volatile compounds.

Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

2016-07-01

Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao; Tomas, Robert A.

2018-05-01

The role of ocean dynamics in the transient adjustment of the coupled climate system to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is investigated using experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 in two configurations: a thermodynamic slab mixed layer ocean and a full-depth ocean that includes both dynamics and thermodynamics. Ocean dynamics produce a distinct sea surface temperature warming maximum in the eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Hadley Circulation. These tropical responses are established within 25 years of ice loss and contrast markedly with the quasi-steady antisymmetric coupled response in the slab-ocean configuration. A heat budget analysis reveals the importance of anomalous vertical advection tied to a monotonic temperature increase below 200 m for the equatorial sea surface temperature warming maximum in the fully coupled model. Ocean dynamics also rapidly modify the midlatitude atmospheric response to sea ice loss.

Coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling to investigate ocean driven melting of marine ice sheets in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jong, Lenneke; Gladstone, Rupert; Galton-Fenzi, Ben

2017-04-01

Ocean induced melting below the ice shelves of marine ice sheets is a major source of uncertainty for predictions of ice mass loss and Antarctica's resultant contribution to future sea level rise. The floating ice shelves provide a buttressing force against the flow of ice across the grounding line into the ocean. Thinning of these ice shelves due to an increase in melting reduces this force and can lead to an increase in the discharge of grounded ice. Fully coupled modelling of ice sheet-ocean interactions is key to improving understanding the influence of the Southern ocean on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, and to predicting its future behaviour under changing climate conditions. Coupling of ocean and ice sheet models is needed to provide more realistic melt rates at the base of ice shelves and hence make better predictions of the behaviour of the grounding line and the shape of the ice-shelf cavity as the ice sheet evolves. The Framework for Ice Sheet - Ocean Coupling (FISOC) has been developed to provide a flexible platform for performing coupled ice sheet - ocean modelling experiments. We present preliminary results using FISOC to couple the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with Elmer/Ice in idealised experiments Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP). These experiments use an idealised geometry motivated by that of Pine Island glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, a region which has shown shown signs of thinning ice and grounding line retreat.

Biogeochemical Coupling between Ocean and Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Jeffery, N.; Maltrud, M. E.; Elliott, S.; Wolfe, J.

2016-12-01

Biogeochemical processes in ocean and sea ice are tightly coupled at high latitudes. Ongoing changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice domain likely influence the coupled system, not only through physical fields but also biogeochemical properties. Investigating the system and its changes requires representation of ocean and sea ice biogeochemical cycles, as well as their coupling in Earth System Models. Our work is based on ACME-HiLAT, a new offshoot of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), including a comprehensive representation of marine ecosystems in the form of the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling Module (BEC). A full vertical column sea ice biogeochemical module has recently been incorporated into the sea ice component. We have further introduced code modifications to couple key growth-limiting nutrients (N, Si, Fe), dissolved and particulate organic matter, and phytoplankton classes that are important in polar regions between ocean and sea ice. The coupling of ocean and sea ice biology-chemistry will enable representation of key processes such as the release of important climate active constituents or seeding algae from melting sea ice into surface waters. Sensitivity tests suggest sea ice and ocean biogeochemical coupling influences phytoplankton competition, biological production, and the CO2 flux. Sea ice algal seeding plays an important role in determining phytoplankton composition of Arctic early spring blooms, since different groups show various responses to the seeding biomass. Iron coupling leads to increased phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean, which also affects carbon uptake via the biological pump. The coupling of macronutrients and organic matter may have weaker influences on the marine ecosystem. Our developments will allow climate scientists to investigate the fully coupled responses of the sea ice-ocean BGC system to physical changes in polar climate.

Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Simulations of Precipitation in the Central Andes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicholls, Stephen D.; Mohr, Karen I.

2015-01-01

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. In addition, South American meteorology and climate are also made further complicated by ENSO, a powerful coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Modelling studies in this region have typically resorted to either atmospheric mesoscale or atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models. The latter offers full physics and high spatial resolution, but it is computationally inefficient typically lack an interactive ocean, whereas the former offers high computational efficiency and ocean-atmosphere coupling, but it lacks adequate spatial and temporal resolution to adequate resolve the complex orography and explicitly simulate precipitation. Explicit simulation of precipitation is vital in the Central Andes where rainfall rates are light (0.5-5 mm hr-1), there is strong seasonality, and most precipitation is associated with weak mesoscale-organized convection. Recent increases in both computational power and model development have led to the advent of coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale models for both weather and climate study applications. These modelling systems, while computationally expensive, include two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling, high resolution, and explicit simulation of precipitation. In this study, we use the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST), a fully-coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean modeling system. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data when ECMWF interim analysis data were used for boundary conditions on a 27-9-km grid configuration (Outer grid extent: 60.4S to 17.7N and 118.6W to 17.4W).

Report for Oregon State University Reporting Period: June 2016 to June 2017

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchings, Jennifer

The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project willmore » facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.« less

Heinrich events simulated across the glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, F. A.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2015-12-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent climate change events recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. We analyze simulations where the ISM is coupled asynchronously to the AOVGCM and simulations where the ISM and the ocean model are coupled synchronously and the atmosphere model is coupled asynchronously to them. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport.

Diagnosing Air-Sea Interactions on Intraseasonal Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMott, C. A.

2014-12-01

What is the role of ocean coupling in the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)? Consensus thinking holds that the essential physics of the MJO involve interactions between convection, atmospheric wave dynamics, and boundary layer and free troposphere moisture. However, many modeling studies demonstrate improved MJO simulation when an atmosphere-only general circulation model (AGCM) is coupled to an ocean model, so feedbacks from the ocean are probably not negligible. Assessing the importance and processes of these feedbacks is challenging for at least two reasons. First, observations of the MJO only sample the fully coupled ocean-atmosphere system; there is no "uncoupled" MJO in nature. Second, the practice of analyzing the MJO in uncoupled and coupled GCMs (CGCMs) involves using imperfect tools to study the problem. Although MJO simulation is improving in many models, shortcomings remain in both AGCMs and CGCMs, making it difficult to determine if changes brought about through coupling reflect critical air-sea interactions or are simply part of the collective idiosyncracies of a given model. For the atmosphere, ocean feedbacks from intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variations are communicated through their effects on surface fluxes of heat and moisture. This presentation suggests a set of analysis tools for diagnosing the impact of an interactive ocean on surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, including their mean, variance, spectral characteristics, and phasing with respect to wind, SST, and MJO convection. The diagnostics are demonstrated with application to several CMIP5 models, and reveal a variety of responses to coupled ocean feedbacks.

High-resolution coupled ice sheet-ocean modeling using the POPSICLES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, E. G.; Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Price, S. F.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

It is expected that a primary driver of future change of the Antarctic ice sheet will be changes in submarine melting driven by incursions of warm ocean water into sub-ice shelf cavities. Correctly modeling this response on a continental scale will require high-resolution modeling of the coupled ice-ocean system. We describe the computational and modeling challenges in our simulations of the full Southern Ocean coupled to a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet model at unprecedented spatial resolutions (0.1 degree for the ocean model and adaptive mesh refinement down to 500m in the ice sheet model). The POPSICLES model couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), with the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012) using a synchronous offline-coupling scheme. Part of the PISCEES SciDAC project and built on the Chombo framework, BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement to fully resolve dynamically-important regions like grounding lines and employs a momentum balance similar to the vertically-integrated formulation of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009). Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests like MISMIP3D (Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). For the POPSICLES Antarctic-Southern Ocean simulations, ice sheet and ocean models communicate at one-month coupling intervals.

Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchings, Jennifer; Joseph, Renu

2013-09-14

The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project willmore » facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.« less

Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 1. Model description and behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hallberg, R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2012-06-01

Antarctic ice shelves interact closely with the ocean cavities beneath them, with ice shelf geometry influencing ocean cavity circulation, and heat from the ocean driving changes in the ice shelves, as well as the grounded ice streams that feed them. We present a new coupled model of an ice stream-ice shelf-ocean system that is used to study this interaction. The model is capable of representing a moving grounding line and dynamically responding ocean circulation within the ice shelf cavity. Idealized experiments designed to investigate the response of the coupled system to instantaneous increases in ocean temperature show ice-ocean system responses on multiple timescales. Melt rates and ice shelf basal slopes near the grounding line adjust in 1-2 years, and downstream advection of the resulting ice shelf thinning takes place on decadal timescales. Retreat of the grounding line and adjustment of grounded ice takes place on a much longer timescale, and the system takes several centuries to reach a new steady state. During this slow retreat, and in the absence of either an upward-or downward-sloping bed or long-term trends in ocean heat content, the ice shelf and melt rates maintain a characteristic pattern relative to the grounding line.

Southern Ocean Open Ocean Polynyas in Observations and from a Low- and a High-Resolution Fully-Coupled Earth System Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veneziani, C.; Kurtakoti, P. K.; Weijer, W.; Stoessel, A.

2016-12-01

In contrast to their better known coastal counterpart, open ocean polynyas (OOPs) form through complex driving mechanisms, involving pre-conditioning of the water column, external forcing and internal ocean dynamics, and are therefore much more elusive and less predictable than coastal polynyas. Yet, their impact on bottom water formation and the Meridional Overturning Circulation could prove substantial. Here, we characterize the formation of Southern Ocean OOPs by analyzing the full satellite NASA microwave imager and radiometer (SSMI/SMMR) data record from 1972 to present day. We repeat the same analysis within the low-resolution (LR) and high-resolution (HR) fully-coupled Earth System Model simulations that are part of the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) v0 baseline experiments. The focus is on two OOPs that are more consistently seen in observations: the Maud Rise and the Weddell Sea polynyas. Results show that the LR simulation is unable to reproduce any OOP over the 195 years of its duration, while both Maud Rise and Weddell Sea polynyas are seen in the HR simulation, with extents similar to observations'. We explore possible mechanisms that would explain the asymmetric behavior, including topographic processes, eddy shedding events, and different water column stratification between the two simulations.

Inter-comparison of isotropic and anisotropic sea ice rheology in a fully coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Maslowski, W.; Osinski, R.; Seefeldt, M. W.; Hughes, M.; Duvivier, A.; Nijssen, B.; Hamman, J.; Hutchings, J. K.; Hunke, E. C.

2015-12-01

We present the sea ice climate of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), using a suite of new physics available in the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE5). RASM is a high-resolution fully coupled pan-Arctic model that also includes the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. The model domain extends from ~45˚N to the North Pole and is configured to run at ~9km resolution for the ice and ocean components, coupled to 50km resolution atmosphere and land models. The baseline sea ice model configuration includes mushy-layer sea ice thermodynamics and level-ice melt ponds. Using this configuration, we compare the use of isotropic and anisotropic sea ice mechanics, and evaluate model performance using these two variants against observations including Arctic buoy drift and deformation, satellite-derived drift and deformation, and sea ice volume estimates from ICESat. We find that the isotropic rheology better approximates spatial patterns of thickness observed across the Arctic, but that both rheologies closely approximate scaling laws observed in the pack using buoys and RGPS data. A fundamental component of both ice mechanics variants, the so called Elastic-Viscous-Plastic (EVP) and Anisotropic-Elastic-Plastic (EAP), is that they are highly sensitive to the timestep used for elastic sub-cycling in an inertial-resolving coupled framework, and this has a significant affect on surface fluxes in the fully coupled framework.

Does coupled ocean enhance ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere circulation changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, S. W.; Han, B. R.; Kim, S. Y.; Park, R.

2017-12-01

The ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation changes, such as poleward shift of westerly jet and Hadley cell widening, have been typically explored with either coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) prescribing stratospheric ozone or chemistry-climate models (CCMs) prescribing surface boundary conditions. Only few studies have utilized ocean-coupled CCMs with a relatively coarse resolution. To better quantify the role of interactive chemistry and coupled ocean in the ozone-hole-induced SH circulation changes, the present study examines a set of CGCM and CCM simulations archived for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CCM initiative (CCMI). Although inter-model spread of Antarctic ozone depletion is substantially large especially in the austral spring, both CGCMs with relatively simple ozone chemistry and CCMs with fully interactive comprehensive chemistry reasonably well reproduce long-term trends of Antarctic ozone and the associated polar-stratospheric temperature changes. Most models reproduce a poleward shift of SH jet and Hadley-cell widening in the austral summer in the late 20th century as identified in reanalysis datasets. These changes are quasi-linearly related with Antarctic ozone changes, confirming the critical role of Antarctic ozone depletion in the austral-summer zonal-mean circulation changes. The CGCMs with simple but still interactive ozone show slightly stronger circulation changes than those with prescribed ozone. However, the long-term circulation changes in CCMs are largely insensitive to the coupled ocean. While a few models show the enhanced circulation changes when ocean is coupled, others show essentially no changes or even weakened circulation changes. This result suggests that the ozone-hole-related stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the late 20th century may be only weakly sensitive to the coupled ocean.

Simulations of coupled, Antarctic ice-ocean evolution using POP2x and BISICLES (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Martin, D. F.; Maltrud, M. E.; Hoffman, M. J.

2013-12-01

We present initial results from Antarctic, ice-ocean coupled simulations using large-scale ocean circulation and land ice evolution models. The ocean model, POP2x is a modified version of POP, a fully eddying, global-scale ocean model (Smith and Gent, 2002). POP2x allows for circulation beneath ice shelf cavities using the method of partial top cells (Losch, 2008). Boundary layer physics, which control fresh water and salt exchange at the ice-ocean interface, are implemented following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (1999), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008; Kimura et al., 2013) and with results from other idealized ice-ocean coupling test cases (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2012). The land ice model, BISICLES (Cornford et al., 2012), includes a 1st-order accurate momentum balance (L1L2) and uses block structured, adaptive-mesh refinement to more accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. For idealized test cases focused on marine-ice sheet dynamics, BISICLES output compares very favorably relative to simulations based on the full, nonlinear Stokes momentum balance (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013). Here, we present large-scale (southern ocean) simulations using POP2x with fixed ice shelf geometries, which are used to obtain and validate modeled submarine melt rates against observations. These melt rates are, in turn, used to force evolution of the BISICLES model. An offline-coupling scheme, which we compare with the ice-ocean coupling work of Goldberg et al. (2012), is then used to sequentially update the sub-shelf cavity geometry seen by POP2x.

A commentary on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation stability in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gent, Peter R.

2018-02-01

The stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean models depends quite strongly on the model formulation, especially the vertical mixing, and whether it is coupled to an atmosphere model. A hysteresis loop in AMOC strength with respect to freshwater forcing has been found in several intermediate complexity climate models and in one fully coupled climate model that has very coarse resolution. Over 40% of modern climate models are in a bistable AMOC state according to the very frequently used simple stability criterion which is based solely on the sign of the AMOC freshwater transport across 33° S. In a recent freshwater hosing experiment in a climate model with an eddy-permitting ocean component, the change in the gyre freshwater transport across 33° S is larger than the AMOC freshwater transport change. This casts very strong doubt on the usefulness of this simple AMOC stability criterion. If a climate model uses large surface flux adjustments, then these adjustments can interfere with the atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and strongly change the AMOC stability properties. AMOC can be shut off for many hundreds of years in modern fully coupled climate models if the hosing or carbon dioxide forcing is strong enough. However, in one climate model the AMOC recovers after between 1000 and 1400 years. Recent 1% increasing carbon dioxide runs and RCP8.5 future scenario runs have shown that the AMOC reduction is smaller using an eddy-resolving ocean component than in the comparable standard 1° ocean climate models.

Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 2. Sensitivity to external forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hallberg, R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2012-06-01

A coupled ice stream-ice shelf-ocean cavity model is used to assess the sensitivity of the coupled system to far-field ocean temperatures, varying from 0.0 to 1.8°C, as well as sensitivity to the parameters controlling grounded ice flow. A response to warming is seen in grounding line retreat and grounded ice loss that cannot be inferred from the response of integrated melt rates alone. This is due to concentrated thinning at the ice shelf lateral margin, and to processes that contribute to this thinning. Parameters controlling the flow of grounded ice have a strong influence on the response to sub-ice shelf melting, but this influence is not seen until several years after an initial perturbation in temperatures. The simulated melt rates are on the order of that observed for Pine Island Glacier in the 1990s. However, retreat rates are much slower, possibly due to unrepresented bedrock features.

Modeling seasonality of ice and ocean carbon production in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, M.; Deal, C. M.; Ji, R.

2011-12-01

In the Arctic Ocean, both phytoplankton and sea ice algae are important contributors to the primary production and the arctic food web. Copepod in the arctic regions have developed their feeding habit depending on the timing between the ice algal bloom and the subsequent phytoplankton bloom. A mismatch of the timing due to climate changes could have dramatic consequences on the food web as shown by some regional observations. In this study, a global coupled ice-ocean-ecosystem model was used to assess the seasonality of the ice algal and phytoplankton blooms in the arctic. The ice-ocean ecosystem modules are fully coupled in the physical model POP-CICE (Parallel Ocean Program- Los Alamos Sea Ice Model). The model results are compared with various observations. The modeled ice and ocean carbon production were analyzed by regions and their linkage to the physical environment changes (such as changes of ice concentration and water temperature, and light intensity etc.) between low- and high-ice years.

Unveiling non-stationary coupling between Amazon and ocean during recent extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Antônio M. de T.; Zou, Yong; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio; Kurths, Jürgen; Macau, Elbert E. N.

2018-02-01

The interplay between extreme events in the Amazon's precipitation and the anomaly in the temperature of the surrounding oceans is not fully understood, especially its causal relations. In this paper, we investigate the climatic interaction between these regions from 1999 until 2012 using modern tools of complex system science. We identify the time scale of the coupling quantitatively and unveil the non-stationary influence of the ocean's temperature. The findings show consistently the distinctions between the coupling in the recent major extreme events in Amazonia, such as the two droughts that happened in 2005 and 2010 and the three floods during 1999, 2009 and 2012. Interestingly, the results also reveal the influence over the anomalous precipitation of Southwest Amazon has become increasingly lagged. The analysis can shed light on the underlying dynamics of the climate network system and consequently can improve predictions of extreme rainfall events.

A Prototype Two-Decade Fully-Coupled Fine-Resolution CCSM Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McClean, Julie L.; Bader, David C; Bryan, Frank O.

2011-01-01

A fully coupled global simulation using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) was configured using grid resolutions of 0.1{sup o} for the ocean and sea-ice, and 0.25{sup o} for the atmosphere and land, and was run under present-day greenhouse gas conditions for 20 years. It represents one of the first efforts to simulate the planetary system at such high horizontal resolution. The climatology of the circulation of the atmosphere and the upper ocean were compared with observational data and reanalysis products to identify persistent mean climate biases. Intensified and contracted polar vortices, and too cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) inmore » the subpolar and mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere were the dominant biases produced by the model. Intense category 4 cyclones formed spontaneously in the tropical North Pacific. A case study of the ocean response to one such event shows the realistic formation of a cold SST wake, mixed layer deepening, and warming below the mixed layer. Too many tropical cyclones formed in the North Pacific however, due to too high SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific. In the North Atlantic anomalously low SSTs lead to a dearth of hurricanes. Agulhas eddy pathways are more realistic than in equivalent stand-alone ocean simulations forced with atmospheric reanalysis.« less

Interannual to Decadal SST Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Newman, M.; Han, W.

2017-12-01

The Indian Ocean has received increasing attention in recent years for its large impacts on regional and global climate. However, due mainly to the close interdependence of the climate variation within the Tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, the internal sea surface temperature (SST) variability within the Indian Ocean has not been studied extensively on longer time scales. In this presentation we will show analysis of the interannual to decadal SST variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean in observations and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) results. We also compare the decoupled Indian Ocean SST variability from the Pacific against fully coupled one based on LIM integrations, to test the factors influence the features of the leading SST modes in the Indian Ocean. The result shows the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode, which is strongly related to global averaged SST variability, passively responses to the Pacific variation. Without tropical Indo-Pacific coupling interaction, the intensity of IOB significantly decreases by 80%. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode demonstrates its independence from the Pacific SST variability since the IOD does not change its long-term characteristics at all without inter-basin interactions. The overall SSTA variance decreases significantly in the Tropical Indian Ocean in the coupling restricted LIM runs, especially when the one-way impact from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean is turned off, suggesting that most of the variability in the Indian Ocean comes from the Pacific influence. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean could also transport anomalies to the Pacific, making the interaction a complete two-way process.

Ice-sheet response to oceanic forcing.

PubMed

Joughin, Ian; Alley, Richard B; Holland, David M

2012-11-30

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

Verification and Validation of a Navy ESPC Hindcast with Loosely Coupled Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzger, E. J.; Barton, N. P.; Smedstad, O. M.; Ruston, B. C.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Whitcomb, T. R.; Ridout, J. A.; Franklin, D. S.; Zamudio, L.; Posey, P. G.; Reynolds, C. A.; Phelps, M.

2016-12-01

The US Navy is developing an Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) to provide global environmental information to meet Navy and Department of Defense (DoD) operations and planning needs from the upper atmosphere to under the sea. It will be a fully coupled global atmosphere/ocean/ice/wave/land prediction system providing daily deterministic forecasts out to 16 days at high horizontal and vertical resolution, and daily probabilistic forecasts out to 45 days at lower resolution. The system will run at the Navy DoD Supercomputing Resource Center with an initial operational capability scheduled for the end of FY18 and the final operational capability scheduled for FY22. The individual model and data assimilation components include: atmosphere - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) and Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System - Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR); ocean - HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA); ice - Community Ice CodE (CICE) and NCODA; WAVEWATCH III™ and NCODA; and land - NAVGEM Land Surface Model (LSM). Currently, NAVGEM/HYCOM/CICE are three-way coupled and each model component is cycling with its respective assimilation scheme. The assimilation systems do not communicate with each other, but future plans call for these to be coupled as well. NAVGEM runs with a 6-hour update cycle while HYCOM/CICE run with a 24-hour update cycle. The T359L50 NAVGEM/0.08° HYCOM/0.08° CICE system has been integrated in hindcast mode and verification/validation metrics have been computed against unassimilated observations and against stand-alone versions of NAVGEM and HYCOM/CICE. This presentation will focus on typical operational diagnostics for atmosphere, ocean, and ice analyses including 500 hPa atmospheric height anomalies, low-level winds, temperature/salinity ocean depth profiles, ocean acoustical proxies, sea ice edge, and sea ice drift. Overall, the global coupled ESPC system is performing with comparable skill to the stand-alone systems at the nowcast time.

Toward Process-resolving Synthesis and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change Using the Regional Arctic System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslowski, W.

2017-12-01

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) has been developed to better understand the operation of Arctic System at process scale and to improve prediction of its change at a spectrum of time scales. RASM is a pan-Arctic, fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere-land model with marine biogeochemistry extension to the ocean and sea ice models. The main goal of our research is to advance a system-level understanding of critical processes and feedbacks in the Arctic and their links with the Earth System. The secondary, an equally important objective, is to identify model needs for new or additional observations to better understand such processes and to help constrain models. Finally, RASM has been used to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook of the Sea Ice Prediction Network. Future RASM forecasts, are likely to include increased resolution for model components and ecosystem predictions. Such research is in direct support of the US environmental assessment and prediction needs, including those of the U.S. Navy, Department of Defense, and the recent IARPC Arctic Research Plan 2017-2021. In addition to an overview of RASM technical details, selected model results are presented from a hierarchy of climate models together with available observations in the region to better understand potential oceanic contributions to polar amplification. RASM simulations are analyzed to evaluate model skill in representing seasonal climatology as well as interannual and multi-decadal climate variability and predictions. Selected physical processes and resulting feedbacks are discussed to emphasize the need for fully coupled climate model simulations, high model resolution and sensitivity of simulated sea ice states to scale dependent model parameterizations controlling ice dynamics, thermodynamics and coupling with the atmosphere and ocean.

Diurnal Cycle of Convection and Air-Sea-Land Interaction Associated with MJO over the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savarin, A.; Chen, S. S.

2016-12-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Large-scale convection fueling the MJO is initiated over the tropical Indian Ocean and propagates eastward across the Maritime Continent (MC) and into the western Pacific as a pattern of alternating phases of active and suppressed convection. As an eastward-propagating MJO convective event encounters the MC, its nature is altered due to the complex interactions with the landmass and topography as well as the warm coastal ocean. In turn, the passage of a large-scale MJO event modulates local conditions over the MC. Previous studies have shown a strong and distinct diurnal cycle of convection over the land and nearby ocean, with an afternoon maximum over land, and a morning maximum over water. These complex interactions are still not well understood. This study aims to improve our understanding on how the resolution of distinct topographic features affects the diurnal cycle of convection in the active and suppressed MJO regimes. We use the Unified Wave Interface - a Coupled Model (UWIN-CM), a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model to examine the effects that varying model resolution has on the representation of the MJO, the diurnal cycle of convection, and their interaction. Three model simulations of the November-December 2011 MJO event were carried out with resolutions of 12-, 4-, and 1.3-km in the fully coupled setting, and verified against TRMM and DYNAMO field campaign observations. Primary results indicate that increasing model resolution provides a better representation of the MC topography that not only improves the pattern of the diurnal cycle of convection over land. It also increases the amount of precipitation over water to values comparable to TRMM, possibly aiding the MJO's eastward propagation as shown in observational studies.

Dynamic Hydrological Discharge Modelling for Fully Coupled Paleoclimate Runs of the Last Glacial Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddick, Thomas; Brovkin, Victor; Hagemann, Stefan; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

The continually evolving large ice sheets present in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial cycle caused significant changes to river pathways both through directly blocking rivers and through glacial isostatic adjustment. These river pathway changes are believed to of had a significant impact on the evolution of ocean circulation through changing the pattern of fresh water discharge into the oceans. A fully coupled ESM simulation of the last glacial cycle thus requires a hydrological discharge model that uses a set of river pathways that evolve with the earth's changing orography while being able to reproduce the known present-day river network given the present-day orography. Here we present a method for dynamically modelling hydrological discharge that meets such requirements by applying relative manual corrections to an evolving fine scale orography (accounting for the changing ice sheets and isostatic rebound) each time the river directions are recalculated. The corrected orography thus produced is then used to create a set of fine scale river pathways and these are then upscaled to a course scale. An existing present-day hydrological discharge model within the JSBACH3 land surface model is run using the course scale river pathways generated. This method will be used in fully coupled paleoclimate runs made using MPI-ESM1 as part of the PalMod project. Tests show this procedure reproduces the known present-day river network to a sufficient degree of accuracy.

Heinrich events modeled in transient glacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under debate, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We address open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The framework consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. To make these long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other model components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. To disentangle effects of the Heinrich events and the deglaciation, we focus on the events occurring before the deglaciation. The modeled Heinrich events show a peak ice discharge of about 0.05 Sv and raise the sea level by 2.3 m on average. The resulting surface water freshening reduces the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat release. The reduction in ocean heat release causes a sub-surface warming and decreases the air temperature and precipitation regionally and downstream into Eurasia. The surface elevation decrease of the ice sheet enhances moisture transport onto the ice sheet and thus increases precipitation over the Hudson Bay area, thereby accelerating the recovery after an event.

Efficient Flowline Simulations of Ice Shelf-Ocean Interactions: Sensitivity Studies with a Fully Coupled Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Ryan Thomas; Holland, David; Parizek, Byron R.; Alley, Richard B.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian

2013-01-01

Thermodynamic flowline and plume models for the ice shelf-ocean system simplify the ice and ocean dynamics sufficiently to allow extensive exploration of parameters affecting ice-sheet stability while including key physical processes. Comparison between geophysically and laboratory-based treatments of ice-ocean interface thermodynamics shows reasonable agreement between calculated melt rates, except where steep basal slopes and relatively high ocean temperatures are present. Results are especially sensitive to the poorly known drag coefficient, highlighting the need for additional field experiments to constrain its value. These experiments also suggest that if the ice-ocean interface near the grounding line is steeper than some threshold, further steepening of the slope may drive higher entrainment that limits buoyancy, slowing the plume and reducing melting; if confirmed, this will provide a stabilizing feedback on ice sheets under some circumstances.

Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones: Progress, Challenges, and Ways Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shuyi

2015-04-01

It has long been recognized that air-sea interaction plays an important role in tropical cyclones (TC) intensity change. However, most current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are deficient in predicting TC intensity. The extreme high winds, intense rainfall, large ocean waves, and copious sea spray in TCs push the surface-exchange parameters for temperature, water vapor, and momentum into untested regimes. Parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in NWP models are often crude and create "manmade" energy source/sink that does not exist, especially in the absence of a fully interactive ocean in the model. The erroneous surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes can cause compounding errors in the model (e.g., precipitation, water vapor, boundary layer properties). The energy source (heat and moisture fluxes from the ocean) and sink (surface friction and wind-induced upper ocean cooling) are critical to TC intensity. However, observations of air-sea fluxes in TCs are very limited, especially in extreme high wind conditions underneath of the eyewall region. The Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST) program was designed to better understand the air-sea interaction, especially in high wind conditions, which included laboratory and coupled model experiments and field campaign in 2003-04 hurricane seasons. Significant progress has been made in better understanding of air-sea exchange coefficients up to 30 m/s, i.e., a leveling off in drag coefficient and relatively invariant exchange coefficient of enthalpy with wind speed. More recently, the Impact of Typhoon on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign in 2010 has provided an unprecedented data set to study the air-sea fluxes in TCs and their impact on TC structure and intensity. More than 800 GPS dropsondes and 900 AXBTs/AXCTs as well as drifters, floats, and moorings were deployed in TCs, including Typhoons Fanapi and Malakas, and Supertyphoon Megi with a record peak wind speed of more than 80 m/s. It is found that the air-sea fluxes are quite asymmetric around a storm with complex features representing various air-sea interaction processes in TCs. A unique observation in Typhoon Fanapi is the development of a stable boundary layer in the near-storm cold wake region, which has a direct impact on TC inner core structure and intensity. Despite of the progress, challenges remain. Air-sea momentum exchange in wind speed greater than 30-40 m/s is largely unresolved. Directional wind-wave stress and wave-current stress are difficult to determine from observations. Effects of sea spray on the air-sea fluxes are still not well understood. This talk will provide an overview on progress made in recent years, challenges we are facing, and ways forward. An integrated coupled observational and atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling system is urgently needed, in which coupled model development and targeted observations from field campaign and lab measurements together form the core of the research and prediction system. Another important aspect is that fully coupled models provide explicit, integrated impact forecasts of wind, rain, waves, ocean currents and surges in TCs and winter storms, which are missing in most current NWP models. It requires a new strategy for model development, evaluation, and verification. Ensemble forecasts using high-resolution coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean models can provide probabilistic forecasts and quantitative uncertainty estimates, which also allow us to explore new methodologies to verify probabilistic impact forecasts and evaluate model physics using a stochastic approach. Examples of such approach in TCs including Superstorm Sandy will be presented.

Transient sensitivities of sea ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago inferred from a coupled ocean/sea-ice adjoint model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, P.; Losch, M.; Menemenlis, D.; Campin, J.; Hill, C.

2008-12-01

The sensitivity of sea-ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), measured in terms of its solid freshwater export through Lancaster Sound, to changes in various elements of the ocean and sea-ice state, and to elements of the atmospheric forcing fields through time and space is assessed by means of a coupled ocean/sea-ice adjoint model. The adjoint model furnishes full spatial sensitivity maps (also known as Lagrange multipliers) of the export metric to a variety of model variables at any chosen point in time, providing the unique capability to quantify major drivers of sea-ice export variability. The underlying model is the MIT ocean general circulation model (MITgcm), which is coupled to a Hibler-type dynamic/thermodynamic sea-ice model. The configuration is based on the Arctic face of the ECCO3 high-resolution cubed-sphere model, but coarsened to 36-km horizontal grid spacing. The adjoint of the coupled system has been derived by means of automatic differentiation using the software tool TAF. Finite perturbation simulations are performed to check the information provided by the adjoint. The sea-ice model's performance in the presence of narrow straits is assessed with different sea-ice lateral boundary conditions. The adjoint sensitivity clearly exposes the role of the model trajectory and the transient nature of the problem. The complex interplay between forcing, dynamics, and boundary condition is demonstrated in the comparison between the different calculations. The study is a step towards fully coupled adjoint-based ocean/sea-ice state estimation at basin to global scales as part of the ECCO efforts.

Stable "Waterbelt" climates controlled by tropical ocean heat transport: A nonlinear coupled climate mechanism of relevance to Snowball Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Brian E. J.

2015-02-01

Ongoing controversy about Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth events motivates a theoretical study of stability and hysteresis properties of very cold climates. A coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model (GCM) has four stable equilibria ranging from 0% to 100% ice cover, including a "Waterbelt" state with tropical sea ice. All four states are found at present-day insolation and greenhouse gas levels and with two idealized ocean basin configurations. The Waterbelt is stabilized against albedo feedback by intense but narrow wind-driven ocean overturning cells that deliver roughly 100 W m-2 heating to the ice edges. This requires three-way feedback between winds, ocean circulation, and ice extent in which circulation is shifted equatorward, following the baroclinicity at the ice margins. The thermocline is much shallower and outcrops in the tropics. Sea ice is snow-covered everywhere and has a minuscule seasonal cycle. The Waterbelt state spans a 46 W m-2 range in solar constant, has a significant hysteresis, and permits near-freezing equatorial surface temperatures. Additional context is provided by a slab ocean GCM and a diffusive energy balance model, both with prescribed ocean heat transport (OHT). Unlike the fully coupled model, these support no more than one stable ice margin, the position of which is slaved to regions of rapid poleward decrease in OHT convergence. Wide ranges of different climates (including the stable Waterbelt) are found by varying the magnitude and spatial structure of OHT in both models. Some thermodynamic arguments for the sensitivity of climate, and ice extent to OHT are presented.

231Pa and 230Th in the ocean model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.3)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Sifan; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-12-01

The sediment 231Pa / 230Th activity ratio is emerging as an important proxy for deep ocean circulation in the past. In order to allow for a direct model-data comparison and to improve our understanding of the sediment 231Pa / 230Th activity ratio, we implement 231Pa and 230Th in the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In addition to the fully coupled implementation of the scavenging behavior of 231Pa and 230Th with the active marine ecosystem module (particle-coupled: hereafter p-coupled), another form of 231Pa and 230Th have also been implemented with prescribed particle flux fields of the present climate (particle-fixed: hereafter p-fixed). The comparison of the two forms of 231Pa and 230Th helps to isolate the influence of the particle fluxes from that of ocean circulation. Under present-day climate forcing, our model is able to simulate water column 231Pa and 230Th activity and the sediment 231Pa / 230Th activity ratio in good agreement with available observations. In addition, in response to freshwater forcing, the p-coupled and p-fixed sediment 231Pa / 230Th activity ratios behave similarly over large areas of low productivity on long timescales, but can differ substantially in some regions of high productivity and on short timescales, indicating the importance of biological productivity in addition to ocean transport. Therefore, our model provides a potentially powerful tool to help the interpretation of sediment 231Pa / 230Th reconstructions and to improve our understanding of past ocean circulation and climate changes.

Role of tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans variability on ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien; Boschat, Ghyslaine

2014-05-01

There are strong evidences of an interaction between tropical Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nevertheless, these interactions remain deeply controversial. While some authors claim the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans only play a passive role with respect to ENSO, others suggest a driving role for these two basins on ENSO. The mecanisms underlying these relations are not fully understood and, in the Indian Ocean, the possible role of both modes of tropical variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB)) remain unclear. To better quantify and understand how the variability of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans impact ENSO variability, we performed two sensitivity experiments using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model. For each experiment, we suppressed the variability of SST and the air-sea coupling in either the tropical Indian Ocean or tropical Atlantic Ocean by applying a strong nudging of the SST to the observed SST climatology. In both experiments, the ENSO periodicity increases. In the Atlantic experiment, our understanding of this increased periodicity is drastically limited by the strongly biased mean state in this region. Conversely, in the Indian Ocean experiment, the increase of ENSO periodicity is related to the absence of the IOB following the El Niño peak, which leads to a decrease of westerly winds in the western Pacific during late winter and spring after the peak. These weaker westerlies hinders the transition to a La Niña phase and thus increase the duration and periodicity of the event.

Indian Ocean and Indian summer monsoon: relationships without ENSO in ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crétat, Julien; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Sooraj, K. P.; Roxy, Mathew Koll

2017-08-01

The relationship between the Indian Ocean and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and their respective influence over the Indo-Western North Pacific (WNP) region are examined in the absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in two partially decoupled global experiments. ENSO is removed by nudging the tropical Pacific simulated sea surface temperature (SST) toward SST climatology from either observations or a fully coupled control run. The control reasonably captures the observed relationships between ENSO, ISM and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite weaker amplitude, IODs do exist in the absence of ENSO and are triggered by a boreal spring ocean-atmosphere coupled mode over the South-East Indian Ocean similar to that found in the presence of ENSO. These pure IODs significantly affect the tropical Indian Ocean throughout boreal summer, inducing a significant modulation of both the local Walker and Hadley cells. This meridional circulation is masked in the presence of ENSO. However, these pure IODs do not significantly influence the Indian subcontinent rainfall despite overestimated SST variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean compared to observations. On the other hand, they promote a late summer cross-equatorial quadrupole rainfall pattern linking the tropical Indian Ocean with the WNP, inducing important zonal shifts of the Walker circulation despite the absence of ENSO. Surprisingly, the interannual ISM rainfall variability is barely modified and the Indian Ocean does not force the monsoon circulation when ENSO is removed. On the contrary, the monsoon circulation significantly forces the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal SSTs, while its connection with the western tropical Indian Ocean is clearly driven by ENSO in our numerical framework. Convection and diabatic heating associated with above-normal ISM induce a strong response over the WNP, even in the absence of ENSO, favoring moisture convergence over India.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Mediterranea Forecasting System: a focus on wave-current coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clementi, Emanuela; Delrosso, Damiano; Pistoia, Jenny; Drudi, Massimiliano; Fratianni, Claudia; Grandi, Alessandro; Pinardi, Nadia; Oddo, Paolo; Tonani, Marina

2016-04-01

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) is a numerical ocean prediction system that produces analyses, reanalyses and short term forecasts for the entire Mediterranean Sea and its Atlantic Ocean adjacent areas. MFS became operational in the late 90's and has been developed and continuously improved in the framework of a series of EU and National funded programs and is now part of the Copernicus Marine Service. The MFS is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) 2-way coupled with the third generation wave model WW3 (WaveWatchIII) implemented in the Mediterranean Sea with 1/16 horizontal resolution and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields. The model solutions are corrected by the data assimilation system (3D variational scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem) with a daily assimilation cycle, using a background error correlation matrix varying seasonally and in different sub-regions of the Mediterranean Sea. The focus of this work is to present the latest modelling system upgrades and the related achieved improvements. In order to evaluate the performance of the coupled system a set of experiments has been built by coupling the wave and circulation models that hourly exchange the following fields: the sea surface currents and air-sea temperature difference are transferred from NEMO model to WW3 model modifying respectively the mean momentum transfer of waves and the wind speed stability parameter; while the neutral drag coefficient computed by WW3 model is passed to NEMO that computes the turbulent component. In order to validate the modelling system, numerical results have been compared with in-situ and remote sensing data. This work suggests that a coupled model might be capable of a better description of wave-current interactions, in particular feedback from the ocean to the waves might assess an improvement on the prediction capability of wave characteristics, while suggests to proceed toward a fully coupled modelling system in order to achieve stronger enhancements of the hydrodynamic fields.

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, M.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hill, D.J.; Jones, S.M.

2011-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland-Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios. ?? 2011.

Extended-range prediction trials using the global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new ocean-coupled version NICOCO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyakawa, Tomoki

2017-04-01

The global cloud/cloud-system resolving model NICAM and its new fully-coupled version NICOCO is run on one of the worlds top-tier supercomputers, the K computer. NICOCO couples the full-3D ocean component COCO of the general circulation model MIROC using a general-purpose coupler Jcup. We carried out multiple MJO simulations using NICAM and the new ocean-coupled version NICOCO to examine their extended-range MJO prediction skills and the impact of ocean coupling. NICAM performs excellently in terms of MJO prediction, maintaining a valid skill up to 27 days after the model is initialized (Miyakawa et al 2014). As is the case in most global models, ocean coupling frees the model from being anchored by the observed SST and allows the model climate to drift away further from reality compared to the atmospheric version of the model. Thus, it is important to evaluate the model bias, and in an initial value problem such as the seasonal extended-range prediction, it is essential to be able to distinguish the actual signal from the early transition of the model from the observed state to its own climatology. Since NICAM is a highly resource-demanding model, evaluation and tuning of the model climatology (order of years) is challenging. Here we focus on the initial 100 days to estimate the early drift of the model, and subsequently evaluate MJO prediction skills of NICOCO. Results show that in the initial 100 days, NICOCO forms a La-Nina like SST bias compared to observation, with a warmer Maritime Continent warm pool and a cooler equatorial central Pacific. The enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent associated with this bias project on to the real-time multi-variate MJO indices (RMM, Wheeler and Hendon 2004), and contaminates the MJO skill score. However, the bias does not appear to demolish the MJO signal severely. The model maintains a valid MJO prediction skill up to nearly 4 weeks when evaluated after linearly removing the early drift component estimated from the 54 simulations. Furthermore, NICOCO outperforms NICAM by far if we focus on events associated with large oceanic signals.

Providing Real-time Sea Ice Modeling Support to the U.S. Coast Guard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allard, Richard; Dykes, James; Hebert, David; Posey, Pamela; Rogers, Erick; Wallcraft, Alan; Phelps, Michael; Smedstad, Ole Martin; Wang, Shouping; Geiszler, Dan

2016-04-01

The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) supported the U.S. Coast Guard Research Development Center (RDC) through a demonstration project during the summer and autumn of 2015. Specifically, a modeling system composed of a mesoscale atmospheric model, regional sea ice model, and regional wave model were loosely coupled to provide real-time 72-hr forecasts of environmental conditions for the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas. The system components included a 2-km regional Community Ice CodE (CICE) sea ice model, 15-km Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) atmospheric model, and a 5-km regional WAVEWATCH III wave model. The wave model utilized modeled sea ice concentration fields to incorporate the effects of sea ice on waves. The other modeling components assimilated atmosphere, ocean, and ice observations available from satellite and in situ sources. The modeling system generated daily 72-hr forecasts of synoptic weather (including visibility), ice drift, ice thickness, ice concentration and ice strength for missions within the economic exclusion zone off the coast of Alaska and a transit to the North Pole in support of the National Science Foundation GEOTRACES cruise. Model forecasts graphics were shared on a common web page with selected graphical products made available via ftp for bandwidth limited users. Model ice thickness and ice drift show very good agreement compared with Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Ice Mass Balance buoys. This demonstration served as a precursor to a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave-ice modeling system under development. National Ice Center (NIC) analysts used these model data products (CICE and COAMPS) along with other existing model and satellite data to produce the predicted 48-hr position of the ice edge. The NIC served as a liaison with the RDC and NRL to provide feedback on the model predictions. This evaluation provides a baseline analysis of the current models for future comparison studies with the fully coupled modeling system.

Coupling with ocean mixed layer leads to intraseasonal variability in tropical deep convection: Evidence from cloud-resolving simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anber, Usama; Wang, Shuguang; Sobel, Adam

2017-03-01

The effect of coupling a slab ocean mixed layer to atmospheric convection is examined in cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations in vertically sheared and unsheared environments without Coriolis force, with the large-scale circulation parameterized using the Weak Temperature Gradient (WTG) approximation. Surface fluxes of heat and moisture as well as radiative fluxes are fully interactive, and the vertical profile of domain-averaged horizontal wind is strongly relaxed toward specified profiles with vertical shear that varies from one simulation to the next. Vertical wind shear is found to play a critical role in the simulated behavior. There exists a threshold value of the shear strength above which the coupled system develops regular oscillations between deep convection and dry nonprecipitating states, similar to those found earlier in a much more idealized model which did not consider wind shear. The threshold value of the vertical shear found here varies with the depth of the ocean mixed layer. The time scale of the spontaneously generated oscillations also varies with mixed layer depth, from 10 days with a 1 m deep mixed layer to 50 days with a 10 m deep mixed layer. The results suggest the importance of the interplay between convection organized by vertical wind shear, radiative feedbacks, large-scale dynamics, and ocean mixed layer heat storage in real intraseasonal oscillations.

Threshold in North Atlantic-Arctic Ocean circulation controlled by the subsidence of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge

PubMed Central

Stärz, Michael; Jokat, Wilfried; Knorr, Gregor; Lohmann, Gerrit

2017-01-01

High latitude ocean gateway changes are thought to play a key role in Cenozoic climate evolution. However, the underlying ocean dynamics are poorly understood. Here we use a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model to investigate the effect of ocean gateway formation that is associated with the subsidence of the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. We find a threshold in sill depth (∼50 m) that is linked to the influence of wind mixing. Sill depth changes within the wind mixed layer establish lagoonal and estuarine conditions with limited exchange across the sill resulting in brackish or even fresher Arctic conditions. Close to the threshold the ocean regime is highly sensitive to changes in atmospheric CO2 and the associated modulation in the hydrological cycle. For larger sill depths a bi-directional flow regime across the ridge develops, providing a baseline for the final step towards the establishment of a modern prototype North Atlantic-Arctic water exchange. PMID:28580952

Five-minute, 1/2°, and 1° data sets of continental watersheds and river networks for use in regional and global hydrologic and climate system modeling studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, S. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Maidment, D. R.

1999-02-01

A major shortcoming of the land surface component in climate models is the absence of a river transport algorithm. This issue becomes particularly important in fully coupled climate system models (CSMs), where river transport is required to close and realistically represent the global water cycle. The development of a river transport algorithm requires knowledge of watersheds and river networks at a scale that is appropriate for use in CSMs. These data must be derived largely from global digital topographic information. The purpose of this paper is to describe a new data set of watersheds and river networks, which is derived primarily from the TerrainBase 5' Global DTM (digital terrain model) and the CIA World Data Bank II. These data serve as a base map for routing continental runoff to the appropriate coast and therefore into the appropriate ocean or inland sea. Using this data set, the runoff produced in any grid cell, when coupled with a routing algorithm, can easily be transported to the appropriate water body and distributed across that water body as desired. The data set includes watershed and flow direction information, as well as supporting hydrologic data at 5', 1/2°, and 1° resolutions globally. It will be useful in fully coupled land-ocean-atmosphere models, in terrestrial ecosystem models, or in stand-alone macroscale hydrologic-modeling studies.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-12-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

PubMed Central

Boulton, Chris A.; Allison, Lesley C.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2014-01-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached. PMID:25482065

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Allison, Lesley C; Lenton, Timothy M

2014-12-08

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rong

2017-08-01

This study identifies key features associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in both observations and a fully coupled climate model, e.g., decadal persistence of monthly mean subpolar North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) anomalies, and high coherence at low frequency among subpolar NA SST/SSS, upper ocean heat/salt content, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) fingerprint. These key AMV features, which can be used to distinguish the AMV mechanism, cannot be explained by the slab ocean model results or the red noise process but are consistent with the ocean dynamics mechanism. This study also shows that at low frequency, the correlation and regression between net surface heat flux and SST anomalies are key indicators of the relative roles of oceanic versus atmospheric forcing in SST anomalies. The oceanic forcing plays a dominant role in the subpolar NA SST anomalies associated with the AMV.

The Strength of Cloud Feedbacks and the Structure of Tropical Climate Change - A CESM Sensitivity Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfani, E.; Burls, N.

2017-12-01

The nature of local coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions within the tropics is determined by background conditions such as the depth of the equatorial thermocline, the water vapor content of the tropical atmosphere, and the radiative forcing of tropical clouds. These factors are set not only by the coupled tropical variability itself but also by extra-tropical conditions. For example, the strength of the cold tongue is ultimately controlled by the temperature of waters subducted in the extra-tropics and transported to the equator by the ocean subtropical cells (STCs). Similarly, inter-hemispheric asymmetries in extra-tropical atmospheric heating are communicated to the tropics affecting cross-equatorial heat transport and ITCZ position. Acknowledging from a fully coupled perspective the influence of both tropical and extra-tropical conditions, we are performing a suite of CESM experiments across which we systematically alter the strength of convective and stratus cloud feedbacks. By systematically exploring the sensitivity of the tropical coupled system to imposed changes in the strength of tropical and extra-tropical cloud feedbacks to CO2-induced warming this work aims to formalize our understanding of cloud controls on tropical climate.

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Fuyao; Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael

This study advances the practicality and stability of the traditional multivariate statistical method, generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA), for decomposing the key oceanic drivers of regional atmospheric variability, especially when available data records are short. An advanced stepwise GEFA methodology is introduced, in which unimportant forcings within the forcing matrix are eliminated through stepwise selection. Method validation of stepwise GEFA is performed using the CESM, with a focused application to northern and tropical Africa (NTA). First, a statistical assessment of the atmospheric response to each primary oceanic forcing is carried out by applying stepwise GEFA to a fully coupled controlmore » run. Then, a dynamical assessment of the atmospheric response to individual oceanic forcings is performed through ensemble experiments by imposing sea surface temperature anomalies over focal ocean basins. Finally, to quantify the reliability of stepwise GEFA, the statistical assessment is evaluated against the dynamical assessment in terms of four metrics: the percentage of grid cells with consistent response sign, the spatial correlation of atmospheric response patterns, the area-averaged seasonal cycle of response magnitude, and consistency in associated mechanisms between assessments. In CESM, tropical modes, namely El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the tropical Indian Ocean Basin, tropical Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical Atlantic Niño modes, are the dominant oceanic controls of NTA climate. In complementary studies, stepwise GEFA is validated in terms of isolating terrestrial forcings on the atmosphere, and observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of NTA climate are extracted to establish an observational benchmark for subsequent coupled model evaluation and development of process-based weights for regional climate projections.« less

Tide, Ocean and Climate on Exoplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Y.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

On Earth, tide is a main part of the driving force for the deep ocean overturning circulation. For habitable planets around low-mass stars, the tidal force is expected to be much stronger than that on Earth, due to the fact that the habitable zone is very close to the host stars and that tide force is inversely proportional to the orbital distance cubed. The deep ocean overturning circulation on this type of planets is therefore expected to be much stronger than that on Earth, if all else being equal. We test this hypothesis using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model, the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Our results show that the intensity of oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is approximately proportional to κ1/3, where κ is the mixing coefficient across density interfaces and it is mainly determined by the strength of the tidal force. As a result of the enhanced MOC, more heat is transported to dark regions and sea ice melts completely there, and meanwhile more heat is mixed from the surface to the deep ocean and thereby the entire ocean becomes much warmer (Fig. 1). A positive cloud feedback further warms the global ocean and atmosphere. These results imply that one planet with a stronger tidal force will likely enter a globally ice-covered snowball state at a lower stellar flux and enter a moist greenhouse or runaway greenhouse state at also a lower stellar flux, meaning that the tidal force acts to push the habitable zone outward. This study significantly improves our understanding of the possible coupling between planetary orbit, ocean, climate, and habitability on exoplanets.

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Regional Climate: Focus on Northern and Tropical African Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE PAGES

Wang, Fuyao; Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; ...

2017-09-27

This study advances the practicality and stability of the traditional multivariate statistical method, generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA), for decomposing the key oceanic drivers of regional atmospheric variability, especially when available data records are short. An advanced stepwise GEFA methodology is introduced, in which unimportant forcings within the forcing matrix are eliminated through stepwise selection. Method validation of stepwise GEFA is performed using the CESM, with a focused application to northern and tropical Africa (NTA). First, a statistical assessment of the atmospheric response to each primary oceanic forcing is carried out by applying stepwise GEFA to a fully coupled controlmore » run. Then, a dynamical assessment of the atmospheric response to individual oceanic forcings is performed through ensemble experiments by imposing sea surface temperature anomalies over focal ocean basins. Finally, to quantify the reliability of stepwise GEFA, the statistical assessment is evaluated against the dynamical assessment in terms of four metrics: the percentage of grid cells with consistent response sign, the spatial correlation of atmospheric response patterns, the area-averaged seasonal cycle of response magnitude, and consistency in associated mechanisms between assessments. In CESM, tropical modes, namely El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the tropical Indian Ocean Basin, tropical Indian Ocean dipole, and tropical Atlantic Niño modes, are the dominant oceanic controls of NTA climate. In complementary studies, stepwise GEFA is validated in terms of isolating terrestrial forcings on the atmosphere, and observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of NTA climate are extracted to establish an observational benchmark for subsequent coupled model evaluation and development of process-based weights for regional climate projections.« less

Role of upper-ocean on the intensity of Bay of Bengal cyclone `Phailin' as revealed by coupled simulation using Mesoscale Coupled Modeling System (WRF-ROMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani, B.; Mandal, M.

2016-12-01

Numerical prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) track has improved significantly in recent years, but not the intensity. It is well accepted that TC induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in conjunction with pre-existing upper-ocean features have major influences on tropical cyclone intensity. Absence of two-way atmosphere-ocean feedback in the stand-alone atmosphere models has major consequences on their prediction of TC intensity. The present study investigates the role of upper-ocean on prediction of TC intensity and track based on coupled and uncoupled simulation of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) cyclone `Phailin'. The coupled simulation is conducted with the Mesoscale Coupled Modeling System (MCMS) which is a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system that includes the non-hydrostatic atmospheric model (WRF-ARW) and the three-dimensional hydrostatic ocean model (ROMS). The uncoupled simulation is performed using the atmosphere component of MCMS i.e., the customized version of WRF-ARW for BoB cyclones with prescribed (RTG) SST. The track and intensity of the storm is significantly better simulated by the MCMS and closely followed the observation. The peak intensity, landfall position and time are accurately predicted by MCMS, whereas the uncoupled simulation over predicted the storm intensity. Validation of storm induced SST cooling with the merged microwave-infrared satellite SST indicates that the MCMS simulation shows better correlation both in terms of spatial spread of cold wake and its magnitude. The analysis also suggests that the Pre-existing Cyclonic Eddy (PCE) observed adjacent to the storm enhanced the TC induced SST cooling. It is observed that the response of SST (i.e., cooling) to storm intensity is 12hr with 95% statistical significance. The air-sea enthalpy flux shows a clear asymmetry between Front Left (FL) and Rear Right (RR) regime to the storm center where TC induced cooling is more than 0.5K/24hr. The analysis of atmospheric boundary layer reveals the formation of persistent stable boundary layer (SBL) over the cold wake, which caused asymmetry in TC structure by quelling convection in the rainbands downstream to the cold wake. The present study signifies the importance of using MCMS in prediction of the BoB cyclone and encourages further investigation with more cyclone cases.

On the role of Sea Surface Temperature forcing in the numerical simulation of a Tropical-Like Cyclone event in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricchi, Antonio; Marcello Miglietta, Mario; Barbariol, Francesco; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bonaldo, Davide; Falcieri, Francesco M.; Russo, Aniello; Sclavo, Mauro; Carniel, Sandro

2017-04-01

Between 19-22 January 2014 a baroclinic wave from the Atlantic region goes in cutoff over the Strait of Gibraltar. The resulting depression remains active for approximately 80 hours, passing off shore of the north African coast, crossing the Tyrrhenian Sea and the Adriatic Sea, before turning south. During the first phase (close to the Balearic islands) and when passing over the Adriatic, the depression assumes the characteristics of a TLC (Tropical Like Cyclones). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is a very important factor for a proper numerical simulation of these events hence we chose to model this TLC event using the COAWST suite (Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport Modelling System). In the first phase of our work we identified the best model configuration to reproduce the phenomenon, extensively testing different microphysics and PBL (Planetary Boundary Layer) schemes available in the numerical model WRF (Weather Research for Forecasting). In the second phase, in order to evaluate the impact of SST, we used the best physical set-up that reproduces the phenomenon in terms of intensity, trajectory and timing, using four different methods of implementation of the SST in the model: i)from a spectrum-radiometer at 8.3 km resolution and updated every six hours; ii) from a dataset provided by "MyOcean" at 1 km resolution and updated every 6 hours; iii) from COAWST suite run in coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration; iv) from COAWST suite in fully coupled atmosphere-ocean- wave configuration). Results show the importance of the selected microphysics scheme in order to correctly reproduce the TLC trajectory, and of the use of high-resolution and high-frequency SST fields, updated every hour in order to reproduce the diurnal cycles. Coupled numerical runs produce less intense heat fluxes which on turn result in better TLC trajectories, more realistic timing and intensity when compared with standalone simulations, even if the latter use a high resolution SST. Last, a temporary increase of the mixed layer depth along the trajectory of the TLC was exhibited by the fully coupled run during the two phases of maximum intensity of the phenomenon, when the wave field is more developed and acts more intensely on the vertical mixing. We will discuss how these results can be improved or further validated in proximity of land by using satellite information that will be available within the framework of H2020 CEASELESS project.

Effects of Variable Eccentricity on the Climate of an Earth-Like World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Way, M. J.; Georgakarakos, Nikolaos

2017-01-01

The Kepler era of exoplanetary discovery has presented the Astronomical community with a cornucopia of planetary systems very different from the one which we inhabit. It has long been known that Jupiter plays a major role in the orbital parameters of Mars and its climate, but there is also a long-standing belief that Jupiter would play a similar role for Earth if not for its large moon. Using a three dimensional general circulation model (3-D GCM) with a fully-coupled ocean we simulate what would happen to the climate of an Earth-like world if Mars did not exist, but a Jupiter-like planet was much closer to Earths orbit. We investigate two scenarios that involve evolution of the Earth-like planets orbital eccentricity from 0 to 0.066 on a time scale of 4500 years, and from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years. We discover that during most of the 6500 year scenario the planet would experience a moist greenhouse effect when near periastron. This could have implications for the ability of such a world to retain an ocean on time scales of 109 years. More Earth-like planets in multi-planet systems will be discovered as we continue to survey the skies and the results herein show that the proximity of large gas giant planets may play an important role in the habitabilty of these worlds. These are the first such 3-D GCM simulations using a fully-coupled ocean with a planetary orbit that evolves over time due to the presence of a giant planet.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Arctic Sea Ice: A Comparison between AO-FVCOM and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, C.; Beardsley, R. C.; Gao, G.; Qi, J.; Lin, H.

2016-02-01

A high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully ice-sea coupled Arctic Ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was used to simulate the Arctic sea ice over the period 1978-2014. Good agreements were found between simulated and observed sea ice extent, concentration, drift velocity and thickness, indicating that the AO-FVCOM captured not only the seasonal and interannual variability but also the spatial distribution of the sea ice in the Arctic in the past 37 years. Compared with other six Arctic Ocean models (ECCO2, GSFC, INMOM, ORCA, NAME and UW), the AO-FVCOM-simulated ice thickness showed a higher correlation coefficient and a smaller difference with observations. An effort was also made to examine the physical processes attributing to the model-produced bias in the sea ice simulation. The error in the direction of the ice drift velocity was sensitive to the wind turning angle; smaller when the wind was stronger, but larger when the wind was weaker. This error could lead to the bias in the near-surface current in the fully or partially ice-covered zone where the ice-sea interfacial stress was a major driving force.

Using a Very Large Ensemble to Examine the Role of the Ocean in Recent Warming Trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, S. N.; Millar, R.; Otto, A.; Yamazaki, K.; Allen, M. R.

2014-12-01

Results from a very large (~10,000 member) perturbed physics and perturbed initial condition ensemble are presented for the period 1980 to present. A set of model versions that can shadow recent surface and upper ocean observations are identified and the range of uncertainty in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) assessed. This experiment uses the Met Office Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), a coupled model with fully dynamic atmosphere and ocean components as part of the climateprediction.net distributive computing project. Parameters are selected so that the model has good top of atmosphere radiative balance and simulations are run without flux adjustments that "nudge" the climate towards a realistic state, but have an adverse effect on important ocean processes. This ensemble provides scientific insights on the possible role of the AMOC, among other factors, in climate trends, or lack thereof, over the past 20 years. This ensemble is also used to explore how the occurrence of hiatus events of different durations varies for models with different transient climate response (TCR). We show that models with a higher TCR are less likely to produce a 15-year warming hiatus in global surface temperature than those with a lower TCR.

Role of ocean heat transport in climates of tidally locked exoplanets around M dwarf stars

PubMed Central

Hu, Yongyun; Yang, Jun

2014-01-01

The distinctive feature of tidally locked exoplanets is the very uneven heating by stellar radiation between the dayside and nightside. Previous work has focused on the role of atmospheric heat transport in preventing atmospheric collapse on the nightside for terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zone around M dwarfs. In the present paper, we carry out simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to investigate the role of ocean heat transport in climate states of tidally locked habitable exoplanets around M dwarfs. Our simulation results demonstrate that ocean heat transport substantially extends the area of open water along the equator, showing a lobster-like spatial pattern of open water, instead of an “eyeball.” For sufficiently high-level greenhouse gases or strong stellar radiation, ocean heat transport can even lead to complete deglaciation of the nightside. Our simulations also suggest that ocean heat transport likely narrows the width of M dwarfs’ habitable zone. This study provides a demonstration of the importance of exooceanography in determining climate states and habitability of exoplanets. PMID:24379386

Role of ocean heat transport in climates of tidally locked exoplanets around M dwarf stars.

PubMed

Hu, Yongyun; Yang, Jun

2014-01-14

The distinctive feature of tidally locked exoplanets is the very uneven heating by stellar radiation between the dayside and nightside. Previous work has focused on the role of atmospheric heat transport in preventing atmospheric collapse on the nightside for terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zone around M dwarfs. In the present paper, we carry out simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to investigate the role of ocean heat transport in climate states of tidally locked habitable exoplanets around M dwarfs. Our simulation results demonstrate that ocean heat transport substantially extends the area of open water along the equator, showing a lobster-like spatial pattern of open water, instead of an "eyeball." For sufficiently high-level greenhouse gases or strong stellar radiation, ocean heat transport can even lead to complete deglaciation of the nightside. Our simulations also suggest that ocean heat transport likely narrows the width of M dwarfs' habitable zone. This study provides a demonstration of the importance of exooceanography in determining climate states and habitability of exoplanets.

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO 2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO 2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surfacemore » air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO 2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO 2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.« less

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Moore, J. K.; Hoffman, F. M.; Mahowald, N. M.; Doney, S. C.

2015-06-01

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.

The Role of Ocean Eddies in the Southern Ocean Response to Observed Greenhouse Gas Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilgen, S. I.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean (SO) is crucial to understanding the possible future response to a changing climate. This is a principal region where energy is conveyed to the ocean by the westerly winds and it is here that mesoscale ocean eddies field dominate meridional heat and momentum transport. Compared to the Arctic, the Antarctic and the surrounding SO have a "delayed warming" anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) response. Understanding the role of the ocean dynamics in modulating the mesoscale atmosphere-ocean interactions in the SO in a fully coupled regime is crucial to efforts aimed at predicting the consequences of the warming and variability to the climate system. The response of model run at multiple resolutions (eddy permitting, eddy resolving) to both GHG forcing and historical forcing are examined in NCAR CCSM4 with four experiments. The first simulation, 0.5° atmosphere coupled to ocean and sea ice components with 1° resolution (LR). The second simulation uses the identical atmospheric model but coupled to 0.1° ocean and sea ice component models (HR). For the third and fourth experiments, the global ocean is simulated for LR an HR models, and a climate change scenario are produced by applying a fixed (present-day) CO2 concentration. The analysis focuses on the last 55 years of two individual 155 year simulations. We discuss results from a set of state-of-art model experiments in comparison with observational estimates and explore mechanisms by examining sea surface temperature, westerly winds, surface heat flux, ocean heat transport. In LR simulations, the patterns and mechanisms of SO changes under GHG forcing are similar to those over the historical period: warming is damped southward of the ACC and enhanced to the north, however major changes between the HR simulations are explored. We find that in recent decades the Southern Annual Mode has shown a distinct upward trend, the result of an anthropogenic global warming. Also, HR simulations show that strengthening of the SAM and associated surface wind stress have been invoked to posit enhancement in the strength of the upwelling of the MOC, and increases eddy activity of the ACC. The results also indicate that eddy-permitting models are not able to capture the eddy-driven SST response since ocean dynamics is playing crucial role in the HR simulation but not in the LR models.

ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, S. C.; Cai, Ming; Kalnay, E.; Rienecker, M.; Yuan, G.; Toth, ZA.

2004-01-01

The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) with the goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. The coupled instability as cap'tured by the breeding method is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Our results show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BV) peaks at about 3 months before a background ENSO event. The dominant growing BV modes are reminiscent of the background ENSO anomalies and show a strong tropical response with wind/SST/thermocline interrelated in a manner similar to the background ENSO mode. They exhibit larger amplitudes in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the presence of the shallow thermocline. Moreover, the extratropical perturbations associated with these coupled BV modes reveal the variations related to the atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with background ENSO variability, e.g. over the North Pacific and North America. A similar experiment was carried out with the NCEP/CFS03 CGCM. Comparisons between bred vectors from the NSIPP CGCM and NCEP/CFS03 CGCM demonstrate the robustness of the results. Our results strongly suggest that the breeding method can serve as a natural filter to identify the slowly varying, coupled instabilities in a coupled GCM, which can be used to construct ensemble perturbations for ensemble forecasts and to estimate the coupled background error covariance for coupled data assimilation.

Exploring the Lyapunov instability properties of high-dimensional atmospheric and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Cruz, Lesley; Schubert, Sebastian; Demaeyer, Jonathan; Lucarini, Valerio; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2018-05-01

The stability properties of intermediate-order climate models are investigated by computing their Lyapunov exponents (LEs). The two models considered are PUMA (Portable University Model of the Atmosphere), a primitive-equation simple general circulation model, and MAOOAM (Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model), a quasi-geostrophic coupled ocean-atmosphere model on a β-plane. We wish to investigate the effect of the different levels of filtering on the instabilities and dynamics of the atmospheric flows. Moreover, we assess the impact of the oceanic coupling, the dissipation scheme, and the resolution on the spectra of LEs. The PUMA Lyapunov spectrum is computed for two different values of the meridional temperature gradient defining the Newtonian forcing to the temperature field. The increase in the gradient gives rise to a higher baroclinicity and stronger instabilities, corresponding to a larger dimension of the unstable manifold and a larger first LE. The Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor increases as well. The convergence rate of the rate function for the large deviation law of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) is fast for all exponents, which can be interpreted as resulting from the absence of a clear-cut atmospheric timescale separation in such a model. The MAOOAM spectra show that the dominant atmospheric instability is correctly represented even at low resolutions. However, the dynamics of the central manifold, which is mostly associated with the ocean dynamics, is not fully resolved because of its associated long timescales, even at intermediate orders. As expected, increasing the mechanical atmosphere-ocean coupling coefficient or introducing a turbulent diffusion parametrisation reduces the Kaplan-Yorke dimension and Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy. In all considered configurations, we are not yet in the regime in which one can robustly define large deviation laws describing the statistics of the FTLEs. This paper highlights the need to investigate the natural variability of the atmosphere-ocean coupled dynamics by associating rate of growth and decay of perturbations with the physical modes described using the formalism of the covariant Lyapunov vectors and considering long integrations in order to disentangle the dynamical processes occurring at all timescales.

Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes.

PubMed

Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

2014-08-21

During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials.

Air-Sea Interaction in the Somali Current Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, T. G.; Rydbeck, A.

2017-12-01

The western Indian Ocean is an area of high eddy-kinetic energy generated by local wind-stress curl, instability of boundary currents as well as Rossby waves from the west coast of India and the equatorial wave guide as they reflect off the African coast. The presence of meso-scale eddies and coastal upwelling during the Southwest Monsoon affects the air-sea interaction on those scales. The U.S. Navy's Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) is used to understand and quantify the surface flux, effects on surface waves and the role of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies on ocean-atmosphere coupling in that area. The COAMPS atmosphere model component with 9 km resolution is fully coupled to the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) with 3.5 km resolution and the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model with 10 km resolution. Data assimilation using a 3D-variational approach is included in hindcast runs performed daily since June 1, 2015. An interesting result is that a westward jet associated with downwelling equatorial Rossy waves initiated the reversal from the southward Somali Current found during the northeast monsoon to a northward flow in March 2016 more than a month before the beginning of the southwest monsoon. It is also found that warm SST anomalies in the Somali Current eddies, locally increase surface wind speed due to an increase in the atmospheric boundary layer height. This results in an increase in significant wave height and also an increase in heat flux to the atmosphere. Cold SST anomalies over upwelling filaments have the opposite impacts on air-sea fluxes.

Biogeochemical Protocols and Diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orr, James C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Bullister, John L.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Graven, Heather;

Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, James C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Bullister, John L.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Graven, Heather; Griffies, Stephen M.; John, Jasmin G.; Joos, Fortunat; Levin, Ingeborg; Lindsay, Keith; Matear, Richard J.; McKinley, Galen A.; Mouchet, Anne; Oschlies, Andreas; Romanou, Anastasia; Schlitzer, Reiner; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Tanhua, Toste; Yool, Andrew

2017-06-01

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948-2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are founded on those from previous phases of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. They have been merged and updated to reflect improvements concerning gas exchange, carbonate chemistry, and new data for initial conditions and atmospheric gas histories. Code is provided to facilitate their implementation.

An Arctic Ice/Ocean Coupled Model with Wave Interactions

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

motion in the presence of currents and waves. In the wave attenuation experiments, between 35 and 80 ‘ice floes’ (0.99 m diameter wooden disks) were...moored with springs to the tank floor and plane waves were sent down, with an array of wave probes to measure the reflected and transmitted waves...waves propagating in the MIZ as opposed to the acoustic wave solution shown. This outcome offers significant new capabilities for tracking fully

Reconstruction of the Eemian climate using a fully coupled Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Huybrechts, Philippe

2017-04-01

Climate of the Last Interglacial (LIG) between ca. 130 and 115 kyr BP is thought to be a good analogue for future climate warming. Though the driving mechanisms of the past and current climate evolution differ, analysis of the LIG climate may provide important insights for projections of future environmental changes. We do not know properly what was spatial distribution and magnitude of surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies with respect to present. Sparse proxy data are attributed mostly to the continental margins, internal areas of ice sheets and particular regions of the World Ocean. Combining mathematical modeling and indirect evidence can help to identify driving mechanisms and feed-backs which formed climatic conditions of the LIG. In order to reproduce the LIG climate, we carried out transient numerical experiments using a fully coupled Earth System Model (ESM) consisting of an AO GCM, which includes decription of the biosphere, atmospheric and oceanic chemistry ets. (INMCM), developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) and the models of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrISM and AISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). Though the newest version of the INMCM has rather high spatial resolution, it canot be used in long transient numerical experimemts because of high computational demand. Coupling of the GrISM and AISM to the low resolution version of the INMCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmosphere and the ocean components of the ESM (spatial resolution 5˚×4˚, 21 vertical layers in the atmospheric block, 2.5°×2°, 6 min. temporal resolution; 33 vertical layers in the oceanic block; 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution in the GrISM and AISM). We apply two different coupling strategies. AISM is incorporated into the ESM via using procedures of resampling and interpolation of the input fields of annually averaged air surface temperatures and precipitation fields generated by the INMCM. To provide interactive coupling of the INMCM and the GrISM, we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between sub-models. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland and calculates annual surface mass balance (further transferred as an external forcing to the GrISM) and fresh water flux (transferred to the oceanic block of the INMCM). Orbital parameters of the LIG were set with 1 kyr step with further interpolation to 100 years. Assuming concentrations of greenhouse gases during the LIG were not very much different from the preindustrial values, this potential forcing was neglected. Climatic block of the ESM was called every 100 model years to follow changes in orbital forcing. AISM and GrISM were asynchronously coupled to sub-models of the atmosphere and the ocean with the ratio of model years as 100 to 1. Obtained fields of deviations of air surface temperature from preindustrial values correspond in general to the estimates made in earlier studies. Evaluated contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to the global sea level rise (approximately 2 m) supports the newest estimates based on model results and proxy data analysis.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

2009-08-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

2009-02-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

A more productive, but different, ocean after mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

John, Jasmin G.; Stock, Charles A.; Dunne, John P.

2015-11-01

Reversibility studies suggest a lagged recovery of global mean sea surface temperatures after mitigation, raising the question of whether a similar lag is likely for marine net primary production (NPP). Here we assess NPP reversibility with a mitigation scenario in which projected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcings are applied out to 2100 and then reversed over the course of the following century in a fully coupled carbon-climate Earth System Model. In contrast to the temperature lag, we find a rapid increase in global mean NPP, including an overshoot to values above contemporary means. The enhanced NPP arises from a transient imbalance between the cooling surface ocean and continued warming in subsurface waters, which weakens upper ocean density gradients, resulting in deeper mixing and enhanced surface nitrate. We also find a marine ecosystem regime shift as persistent silicate depletion results in increased prevalence of large, non-diatom phytoplankton.

Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability.

PubMed

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A; Han, Weiqing; Timmermann, Axel; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Liu, Zhengyu; Washington, Warren M; Large, William; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kimoto, Masahide; Lambeck, Kurt; Wu, Bingyi

2012-04-24

Abrupt climate transitions, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, occurred frequently during the last glacial period, specifically from 80-11 thousand years before present, but were nearly absent during interglacial periods and the early stages of glacial periods, when major ice-sheets were still forming. Here we show, with a fully coupled state-of-the-art climate model, that closing the Bering Strait and preventing its throughflow between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans during the glacial period can lead to the emergence of stronger hysteresis behavior of the ocean conveyor belt circulation to create conditions that are conducive to triggering abrupt climate transitions. Hence, it is argued that even for greenhouse warming, abrupt climate transitions similar to those in the last glacial time are unlikely to occur as the Bering Strait remains open.

Impact of topography on groundwater salinization due to ocean surge inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xuan; Yang, Jie; Graf, Thomas; Koneshloo, Mohammad; O'Neal, Michael A.; Michael, Holly A.

2016-08-01

Sea-level rise and increases in the frequency and intensity of ocean surges caused by climate change are likely to exacerbate adverse effects on low-lying coastal areas. The landward flow of water during ocean surges introduces salt to surficial coastal aquifers and threatens groundwater resources. Coastal topographic features (e.g., ponds, dunes, barrier islands, and channels) likely have a strong impact on overwash and salinization processes, but are generally highly simplified in modeling studies. To understand topographic impacts on groundwater salinization, we modeled a theoretical overwash event and variable-density groundwater flow and salt transport in 3-D using the fully coupled surface and subsurface numerical simulator, HydroGeoSphere. The model simulates the coastal aquifer as an integrated system considering overland flow, coupled surface and subsurface exchange, variably saturated flow, and variable-density groundwater flow. To represent various coastal landscape types, we simulated both synthetic fields and real-world coastal topography from Delaware, USA. The groundwater salinization assessment suggested that the topographic connectivity promoting overland flow controls the volume of aquifer that is salinized. In contrast, the amount of water that can be stored in surface depressions determines the amount of seawater that infiltrates the subsurface and the time for seawater to flush from the aquifer. Our study suggests that topography has a significant impact on groundwater salinization due to ocean surge overwash, with important implications for coastal land management and groundwater vulnerability assessment.

Estimating Convection Parameters in the GFDL CM2.1 Model Using Ensemble Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shan; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Zhengyu; Lu, Lv; Zhu, Jiang; Zhang, Xuefeng; Wu, Xinrong; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Lin, Xiaopei

2018-04-01

Parametric uncertainty in convection parameterization is one major source of model errors that cause model climate drift. Convection parameter tuning has been widely studied in atmospheric models to help mitigate the problem. However, in a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM), convection parameters which impact the ocean as well as the climate simulation may have different optimal values. This study explores the possibility of estimating convection parameters with an ensemble coupled data assimilation method in a CGCM. Impacts of the convection parameter estimation on climate analysis and forecast are analyzed. In a twin experiment framework, five convection parameters in the GFDL coupled model CM2.1 are estimated individually and simultaneously under both perfect and imperfect model regimes. Results show that the ensemble data assimilation method can help reduce the bias in convection parameters. With estimated convection parameters, the analyses and forecasts for both the atmosphere and the ocean are generally improved. It is also found that information in low latitudes is relatively more important for estimating convection parameters. This study further suggests that when important parameters in appropriate physical parameterizations are identified, incorporating their estimation into traditional ensemble data assimilation procedure could improve the final analysis and climate prediction.

Extension of NHWAVE to Couple LAMMPS for Modeling Wave Interactions with Arctic Ice Floes

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Modelling, in press. Orzech, M., Shi, F., Veeramony, J., Bateman , S., Calantoni, J., and Kirby, J. T., 2015, “Incorporating floating surface...objects into a fully dispersive surface wave model”, Ocean Modelling, submitted. Bateman , S. Shi, F., Orzech, M., Veeramony, J., and Calantoni, J., 2014...Orzech, M., Shi, F., Calantoni, J., Bateman , S., and Veeramony, J., “Small-scale modeling of waves and floes in the Marginal Ice Zone”, 2014 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

Comparison of MERRA-2 and ECCO-v4 ocean surface heat fluxes: Consequences of different forcing feedbacks on ocean circulation and implications for climate data assimilation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strobach, E.; Molod, A.; Menemenlis, D.; Forget, G.; Hill, C. N.; Campin, J. M.; Heimbach, P.

2017-12-01

Forcing ocean models with reanalysis data is a common practice in ocean modeling. As part of this practice, prescribed atmospheric state variables and interactive ocean SST are used to calculate fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. When forcing an ocean model with reanalysis fields, errors in the reanalysis data, errors in the ocean model and errors in the forcing formulation will generate a different solution compared to other ocean reanalysis solutions (which also have their own errors). As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere reanalysis, we compare surface heat fluxes from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to heat fluxes from a state-of-the-art oceanic reanalysis, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4, Release 2 (ECCO-v4). Then, we investigate the errors associated with the MITgcm ocean model in its ECCO-v4 ocean reanalysis configuration (1992-2011) when it is forced with MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalysis fields instead of with the ECCO-v4 adjoint optimized ERA-interim state variables. This is done by forcing ECCO-v4 ocean with and without feedbacks from MERRA-2 related to turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture and the outgoing long wave radiation. In addition, we introduce an intermediate forcing method that includes only the feedback from the interactive outgoing long wave radiation. The resulting ocean circulation is compared with ECCO-v4 reanalysis and in-situ observations. We show that, without feedbacks, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2 (which are directly related to the fact it was created without interactive ocean) result in considerable SST drifts and a large reduction in sea level. The bulk formulae and interactive outgoing long wave radiation, although providing air-sea feedbacks and reducing model-data misfit, strongly relax the ocean to observed SST and may result in unwanted features such as large change in the water budget. These features have implications in on desired forcing recipe to be used. The results strongly and unambiguously argue for next generation data assimilation climate studies to involve fully coupled systems.

Assessment of upper-ocean variability and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in extended-range air-ocean coupled mesoscale simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Xiaodong; Reynolds, Carolyn A.; Doyle, James D.; May, Paul; O'Neill, Larry

2017-06-01

Atmosphere-ocean interaction, particular the ocean response to strong atmospheric forcing, is a fundamental component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In this paper, we examine how model errors in previous Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events can affect the simulation of subsequent MJO events due to increased errors that develop in the upper-ocean before the MJO initiation stage. Two fully coupled numerical simulations with 45-km and 27-km horizontal resolutions were integrated for a two-month period from November to December 2011 using the Navy's limited area Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®). There are three MJO events that occurred subsequently in early November, mid-November, and mid-December during the simulations. The 45-km simulation shows an excessive warming of the SSTs during the suppressed phase that occurs before the initiation of the second MJO event due to erroneously strong surface net heat fluxes. The simulated second MJO event stalls over the Maritime Continent which prevents the recovery of the deep mixed layer and associated barrier layer. Cross-wavelet analysis of solar radiation and SSTs reveals that the diurnal warming is absent during the second suppressed phase after the second MJO event. The mixed layer heat budget indicates that the cooling is primarily caused by horizontal advection associated with the stalling of the second MJO event and the cool SSTs fail to initiate the third MJO event. When the horizontal resolution is increased to 27-km, three MJOs are simulated and compare well with observations on multi-month timescales. The higher-resolution simulation of the second MJO event and more-realistic upper-ocean response promote the onset of the third MJO event. Simulations performed with analyzed SSTs indicate that the stalling of the second MJO in the 45-km run is a robust feature, regardless of ocean forcing, while the diurnal cycle analysis indicates that both 45-km and 27-km ocean resolutions respond realistically when provided with realistic atmospheric forcing. Thus, the problem in the 45-km simulation appears to originate in the atmosphere. Additional simulations show that while the details of the simulations are sensitive to small changes in the initial integration time, the large differences between the 45-km and 27-km runs during the suppressed phase in early December are robust.

An iceberg model implementation in ACME.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comeau, D.; Turner, A. K.; Hunke, E. C.

2017-12-01

Icebergs represent approximately half of the mass flux from the Antarctic ice sheet, transporting freshwater and nutrients away from the coast to the Southern Ocean. Icebergs impact the surrounding ocean and sea ice environment, and serve as nutrient sources for biogeochemical activity, yet these processes are typically not resolved in current climate models. We have implemented a parameterization for iceberg drift and decay into the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), where the ocean, sea ice, and land ice components are based on the unstructured grid modeling framework Multiple Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), to improve the representation of Antarctic mass flux to the Southern Ocean and its impacts on ocean stratification and circulation, sea ice, and biogeochemical processes in a fully coupled global climate model. The iceberg model is implemented in two frameworks: Lagrangian and Eulerian. The Lagrangian framework embeds individual icebergs into the ocean and sea ice grids, and will be useful in modeling `giant' (>10 nautical miles) iceberg events, which may have highly localized impacts on ocean and sea ice. The Eulerian framework allows us to model a realistic population of Antarctic icebergs without the computational expense of individual particle tracking to simulate the aggregate impact on the Southern Ocean climate system. This capability, together with under ice-shelf ocean cavities and dynamic ice-shelf fronts, will allow for extremely high fidelity simulation of the southern cryosphere within ACME.

An update to the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT version 2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, D. C. E.; Pfeil, B.; Smith, K.; Hankin, S.; Olsen, A.; Alin, S. R.; Cosca, C.; Harasawa, S.; Kozyr, A.; Nojiri, Y.; O'Brien, K. M.; Schuster, U.; Telszewski, M.; Tilbrook, B.; Wada, C.; Akl, J.; Barbero, L.; Bates, N.; Boutin, J.; Cai, W.-J.; Castle, R. D.; Chavez, F. P.; Chen, L.; Chierici, M.; Currie, K.; de Baar, H. J. W.; Evans, W.; Feely, R. A.; Fransson, A.; Gao, Z.; Hales, B.; Hardman-Mountford, N.; Hoppema, M.; Huang, W.-J.; Hunt, C. W.; Huss, B.; Ichikawa, T.; Johannessen, T.; Jones, E. M.; Jones, S. D.; Jutterström, S.; Kitidis, V.; Körtzinger, A.; Landschtzer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefèvre, N.; Manke, A. B.; Mathis, J. T.; Merlivat, L.; Metzl, N.; Murata, A.; Newberger, T.; Ono, T.; Park, G.-H.; Paterson, K.; Pierrot, D.; Ríos, A. F.; Sabine, C. L.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J.; Sarma, V. V. S. S.; Schlitzer, R.; Sieger, R.; Skjelvan, I.; Steinhoff, T.; Sullivan, K.; Sun, H.; Sutton, A. J.; Suzuki, T.; Sweeney, C.; Takahashi, T.; Tjiputra, J.; Tsurushima, N.; van Heuven, S. M. A. C.; Vandemark, D.; Vlahos, P.; Wallace, D. W. R.; Wanninkhof, R.; Watson, A. J.

2013-08-01

The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is an effort by the international marine carbon research community. It aims to improve access to carbon dioxide measurements in the surface oceans by regular releases of quality controlled and fully documented synthesis and gridded fCO2 (fugacity of carbon dioxide) products. SOCAT version 2 presented here extends the data set for the global oceans and coastal seas by four years and has 10.1 million surface water fCO2 values from 2660 cruises between 1968 and 2011. The procedures for creating version 2 have been comparable to those for version 1. The SOCAT website (http://www.socat.info/) provides access to the individual cruise data files, as well as to the synthesis and gridded data products. Interactive online tools allow visitors to explore the richness of the data. Scientific users can also retrieve the data as downloadable files or via Ocean Data View. Version 2 enables carbon specialists to expand their studies until 2011. Applications of SOCAT include process studies, quantification of the ocean carbon sink and its spatial, seasonal, year-to-year and longer-term variation, as well as initialisation or validation of ocean carbon models and coupled-climate carbon models.

Nonlinear Interactions between Climate and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Drivers of Terrestrial and Marine Carbon Cycle Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Moore, J. K.; Goulden, M.; Fu, W.; Koven, C.; Swann, A. L. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Lindsay, K. T.; Munoz, E.

2017-12-01

Quantifying interactions between global biogeochemical cycles and the Earth system is important for predicting future atmospheric composition and informing energy policy. We applied a feedback analysis framework to three sets of Historical (1850-2005), Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (2006-2100), and its extension (2101-2300) simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1(BGC)) to quantify drivers of terrestrial and ocean responses of carbon uptake. In the biogeochemically coupled simulation (BGC), the effects of CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition influenced marine and terrestrial carbon cycling. In the radiatively coupled simulation (RAD), the effects of rising temperature and circulation changes due to radiative forcing from CO2, other greenhouse gases, and aerosols were the sole drivers of carbon cycle changes. In the third, fully coupled simulation (FC), both the biogeochemical and radiative coupling effects acted simultaneously. We found that climate-carbon sensitivities derived from RAD simulations produced a net ocean carbon storage climate sensitivity that was weaker and a net land carbon storage climate sensitivity that was stronger than those diagnosed from the FC and BGC simulations. For the ocean, this nonlinearity was associated with warming-induced weakening of ocean circulation and mixing that limited exchange of dissolved inorganic carbon between surface and deeper water masses. For the land, this nonlinearity was associated with strong gains in gross primary production in the FC simulation, driven by enhancements in the hydrological cycle and increased nutrient availability. We developed and applied a nonlinearity metric to rank model responses and driver variables. The climate-carbon cycle feedback gain at 2300 was 42% higher when estimated from climate-carbon sensitivities derived from the difference between FC and BGC than when derived from RAD. We re-analyzed other CMIP5 model results to quantify the effects of such nonlinearities on their projected climate-carbon cycle feedback gains.

Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Advance Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change at Process Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Brunke, M.; Cassano, J. J.; Clement Kinney, J. L.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Hamman, J.; Hughes, M.; Nijssen, B.; Zeng, X.

2014-12-01

The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic changes, which are some of the most coordinated changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. They are exemplified by the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Global Climate and Global Earth System Models (GC/ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in the GC/ESMs remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that stem from a combination of coarse model resolution, inadequate parameterizations, unrepresented processes and a limited knowledge of physical and other real world interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the GC/ESM limitations in simulating observed seasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover and climate. RASM is a high resolution, fully coupled, pan-Arctic climate model that uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. It uses the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP) configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12° as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models at 50 km resolution. All RASM components are coupled via the CESM flux coupler (CPL7) at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled earth system model, which due to the additional constraints from lateral boundary conditions and nudging within a regional model domain facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with GC/ESMs. In this talk, we will emphasize the utility of RASM to understand sensitivity to variable parameter space, importance of critical processes, coupled feedbacks and ultimately to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change projections.

Effects of Variable Eccentricity on the Climate of an Earth-like World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Way, M. J.; Georgakarakos, Nikolaos

2017-01-01

The Kepler era of exoplanetary discovery has presented the astronomical community with a cornucopia of planetary systems that are very different from the one that we inhabit. It has long been known that Jupiter plays a major role in the orbital parameters of Mars and its climate, but there is also a long-standing belief that Jupiter would play a similar role for Earth if not for the Moon. Using a three-dimensional general circulation model (3D GCM) with a fully coupled ocean, we simulate what would happen to the climate of an Earth-like world if Mars did not exist, but a Jupiter-like planet was much closer to Earth’s orbit. We investigate two scenarios that involve the evolution of the Earth-like planet’s orbital eccentricity from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years, and from 0 to 0.066 on a timescale of 4500 years. In both cases we discover that they would maintain relatively temperate climates over the timescales simulated. More Earth-like planets in multi-planet systems will be discovered as we continue to survey the skies and the results herein show that the proximity of large gas giant planets may play an important role in the habitability of these worlds. These are the first such 3D GCM simulations using a fully coupled ocean with a planetary orbit that evolves over time due to the presence of a giant planet.

Evolution and Termination of Oceanic Anoxic Event 2: Testing the impact of organic matter sulfurization on benthic-pelagic coupling during OAE2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hülse, D.; Arndt, S.; Ridgwell, A.

2016-12-01

Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) represent severe disturbances of the global carbon, oxygen and nutrient cycles of the ocean. The archetypal example is OAE2 ( 93.5 Ma), which is characterized by widespread bottom water anoxia and photic zone euxinia. One way to explain these conditions is via increased oxygen demand in the water column resulting from enhanced primary productivity (PP), itself fuelled by increased nutrient availability for instance from the sediments as the burial efficiency of phosphorus declines when bottom waters become anoxic. The recovery from OAE like conditions is thought to involve the permanent removal of excess CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean by burying carbon in the form of organic matter (OM) in marine sediments, which is consistent with the geological record of widespread black shale formation. A number of possible controls on enhanced OM burial have previously been proposed and assessed, such as elevated depositional fluxes, higher clay mineral availability, or reduced oxygenation. Here we explore a 4th possible mechanism - organic matter sulfurization. During sulfurization, reduced inorganic sulfur species (e.g. H2S) react with OM, resulting in the formation of organic sulfur compounds which are less prone to bacterial degradation. Although studies indicate the global significance of this process for OAE2, its implications on Cretaceous benthic-pelagic coupling and thus OAE2 evolution and recovery has not yet been quantified and tested with a 3D Earth system model. The major hurdle is the high computational cost of simulating the essential redox reactions in marine sediments, which are critical to quantify the burial of OM and benthic recycling fluxes of chemical compounds. In order to close this knowledge gap, we developed a new, mechanistic representation of OM preservation in marine sediments (OMEN-SED) and coupled it to a 3D Earth system model (cGENIE). Using this new model we explore the impact of organic matter sulfurization on benthic nutrient fluxes, ocean oxygenation and PP during OAE2 for the first time in a fully coupled 3D-ocean-sediment model. We investigate the role of sulfurization in Earth's recovery dynamics from OAE2 by comparing our results with multiple geochemical proxies for seafloor anoxia and photic zone euxinia.

Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach.

PubMed

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Palmer, Matthew D; Lee, Donghyun; Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2016-06-01

Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.

Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Palmer, Matthew D.; Lee, Donghyun; Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2016-06-01

Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.

Representing grounding line migration in synchronous coupling between a marine ice sheet model and a z-coordinate ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Snow, K.; Holland, P.; Jordan, J. R.; Campin, J.-M.; Heimbach, P.; Arthern, R.; Jenkins, A.

2018-05-01

Synchronous coupling is developed between an ice sheet model and a z-coordinate ocean model (the MITgcm). A previously-developed scheme to allow continuous vertical movement of the ice-ocean interface of a floating ice shelf ("vertical coupling") is built upon to allow continuous movement of the grounding line, or point of floatation of the ice sheet ("horizontal coupling"). Horizontal coupling is implemented through the maintenance of a thin layer of ocean ( ∼ 1 m) under grounded ice, which is inflated into the real ocean as the ice ungrounds. This is accomplished through a modification of the ocean model's nonlinear free surface evolution in a manner akin to a hydrological model in the presence of steep bathymetry. The coupled model is applied to a number of idealized geometries and shown to successfully represent ocean-forced marine ice sheet retreat while maintaining a continuous ocean circulation.

Spin-Up and Tuning of the Global Carbon Cycle Model Inside the GISS ModelE2 GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aleinov, Igor; Kiang, Nancy Y.; Romanou, Anastasia

2015-01-01

Planetary carbon cycle involves multiple phenomena, acting at variety of temporal and spacial scales. The typical times range from minutes for leaf stomata physiology to centuries for passive soil carbon pools and deep ocean layers. So, finding a satisfactory equilibrium state becomes a challenging and computationally expensive task. Here we present the spin-up processes for different configurations of the GISS Carbon Cycle model from the model forced with MODIS observed Leaf Area Index (LAI) and prescribed ocean to the prognostic LAI and to the model fully coupled to the dynamic ocean and ocean biology. We investigate the time it takes the model to reach the equilibrium and discuss the ways to speed up this process. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS ModelE2) is currently equipped with all major algorithms necessary for the simulation of the Global Carbon Cycle. The terrestrial part is presented by Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM), which includes leaf biophysics, prognostic phenology and soil biogeochemistry module (based on Carnegie-Ames-Stanford model). The ocean part is based on the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM). The transport of atmospheric CO2 is performed by the atmospheric part of ModelE2, which employs quadratic upstream algorithm for this purpose.

Modelling Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: The Importance of Horizontal Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shields, C. A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Meehl, G. A.

2013-12-01

Understanding Earth's water cycle on a warming planet is of critical importance in society's ability to adapt to climate change. Extreme weather events, such as floods, heat waves, and drought will likely change with the water cycle as greenhouse gases continue to rise. Location, duration, and intensity of extreme events can be studied using complex earth system models. Here, we employ the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0) to evaluate extreme event impacts for different possible future forcing scenarios. Simulations applying the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to bracket the range of model responses. Because extreme weather events happen on a regional scale, there is a tendency to favor using higher resolution models, i.e. models that can represent regional features with greater accuracy. Within the CESM1.0 framework, we evaluate both the standard 1 degree resolution (1 degree atmosphere/land coupled to 1 degree ocean/sea ice), and the higher 0.5 degree resolution version (0.5 degree atmosphere/land coupled to 1 degree ocean/sea ice), focusing on extreme precipitation events, heat waves, and droughts. We analyze a variety of geographical regions, but generally find that benefits from increased horizontal resolution are most significant on the regional scale.

Librations and tides of icy satellites: model comparison for Enceladus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinh, A.; Van Hoolst, T.; Baland, R. M.; Beuthe, M.; Rivoldini, A.; Dehant, V. M. A.

2015-12-01

The latest measurements of the librations of Enceladus suggest that it could have a global subsurface ocean or a non-hydrostatic core (Thomas et al. 2014). Further observations should constrain the properties of the ice shell, and similar insights are expected from future investigation of Europa and Ganymede.Detailed models of the librations and tides are therefore required to properly interpret these measurements in terms of interior structure. Here we compare the `classical', separate tide and libration models (where spherical symmetry is assumed to compute the tides, Van Hoolst et al. 2013) with our combined tide+libration model (Trinh et al. 2013), both extended to account for non-hydrostatic structure.Even with a global ocean, different mechanisms act to prevent Enceladus's shell from moving independently from the rest. Among those, pressure coupling across the flattened boundaries of the ocean requires special care if the shape is not fully relaxed. We discuss how it should be modelled in the classical approach to be consistent with the combined model.

Development of BFMCOUPLER (v1.0), the coupling scheme that links the MITgcm and BFM models for ocean biogeochemistry simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cossarini, Gianpiero; Querin, Stefano; Solidoro, Cosimo; Sannino, Gianmaria; Lazzari, Paolo; Di Biagio, Valeria; Bolzon, Giorgio

2017-04-01

In this paper, we present a coupling scheme between the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) and the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM). The MITgcm and BFM are widely used models for geophysical fluid dynamics and for ocean biogeochemistry, respectively, and they benefit from the support of active developers and user communities. The MITgcm is a state-of-the-art general circulation model for simulating the ocean and the atmosphere. This model is fully 3-D (including the non-hydrostatic term of momentum equations) and is characterized by a finite-volume discretization and a number of additional features enabling simulations from global (O(107) m) to local scales (O(100) m). The BFM is a biogeochemical model based on plankton functional type formulations, and it simulates the cycling of a number of constituents and nutrients within marine ecosystems. The online coupling presented in this paper is based on an open-source code, and it is characterized by a modular structure. Modularity preserves the potentials of the two models, allowing for a sustainable programming effort to handle future evolutions in the two codes. We also tested specific model options and integration schemes to balance the numerical accuracy against the computational performance. The coupling scheme allows us to solve several processes that are not considered by each of the models alone, including light attenuation parameterizations along the water column, phytoplankton and detritus sinking, external inputs, and surface and bottom fluxes. Moreover, this new coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model has been configured and tested against an idealized problem (a cyclonic gyre in a mid-latitude closed basin) and a realistic case study (central part of the Mediterranean Sea in 2006-2012). The numerical results consistently reproduce the interplay of hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry in both the idealized case and Mediterranean Sea experiments. The former reproduces correctly the alternation of surface bloom and deep chlorophyll maximum dynamics driven by the seasonal cycle of winter vertical mixing and summer stratification; the latter simulates the main basin-wide and mesoscale spatial features of the physical and biochemical variables in the Mediterranean, thus demonstrating the applicability of the new coupled model to a wide range of ocean biogeochemistry problems.

Tests of oceanic stochastic parameterisation in a seasonal forecast system.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Fenwick; Andrejczuk, Miroslaw; Juricke, Stephan; Zanna, Laure; Palmer, Tim

2015-04-01

Over seasonal time scales, our aim is to compare the relative impact of ocean initial condition and model uncertainty, upon the ocean forecast skill and reliability. Over seasonal timescales we compare four oceanic stochastic parameterisation schemes applied in a 1x1 degree ocean model (NEMO) with a fully coupled T159 atmosphere (ECMWF IFS). The relative impacts upon the ocean of the resulting eddy induced activity, wind forcing and typical initial condition perturbations are quantified. Following the historical success of stochastic parameterisation in the atmosphere, two of the parameterisations tested were multiplicitave in nature: A stochastic variation of the Gent-McWilliams scheme and a stochastic diffusion scheme. We also consider a surface flux parameterisation (similar to that introduced by Williams, 2012), and stochastic perturbation of the equation of state (similar to that introduced by Brankart, 2013). The amplitude of the stochastic term in the Williams (2012) scheme was set to the physically reasonable amplitude considered in that paper. The amplitude of the stochastic term in each of the other schemes was increased to the limits of model stability. As expected, variability was increased. Up to 1 month after initialisation, ensemble spread induced by stochastic parameterisation is greater than that induced by the atmosphere, whilst being smaller than the initial condition perturbations currently used at ECMWF. After 1 month, the wind forcing becomes the dominant source of model ocean variability, even at depth.

Episodic fresh surface waters in the Eocene Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinkhuis, Henk; Schouten, Stefan; Collinson, Margaret E.; Sluijs, Appy; Damsté, Jaap S. Sinninghe; Dickens, Gerald R.; Huber, Matthew; Cronin, Thomas M.; Onodera, Jonaotaro; Takahashi, Kozo; Bujak, Jonathan P.; Stein, Ruediger; van der Burgh, Johan; Eldrett, James S.; Harding, Ian C.; Lotter, André F.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Cittert, Han Van Konijnenburg-Van; de Leeuw, Jan W.; Matthiessen, Jens; Backman, Jan; Moran, Kathryn; Expedition 302 Scientists

2006-06-01

It has been suggested, on the basis of modern hydrology and fully coupled palaeoclimate simulations, that the warm greenhouse conditions that characterized the early Palaeogene period (55-45Myr ago) probably induced an intensified hydrological cycle with precipitation exceeding evaporation at high latitudes. Little field evidence, however, has been available to constrain oceanic conditions in the Arctic during this period. Here we analyse Palaeogene sediments obtained during the Arctic Coring Expedition, showing that large quantities of the free-floating fern Azolla grew and reproduced in the Arctic Ocean by the onset of the middle Eocene epoch (~50Myr ago). The Azolla and accompanying abundant freshwater organic and siliceous microfossils indicate an episodic freshening of Arctic surface waters during an ~800,000-year interval. The abundant remains of Azolla that characterize basal middle Eocene marine deposits of all Nordic seas probably represent transported assemblages resulting from freshwater spills from the Arctic Ocean that reached as far south as the North Sea. The termination of the Azolla phase in the Arctic coincides with a local sea surface temperature rise from ~10°C to 13°C, pointing to simultaneous increases in salt and heat supply owing to the influx of waters from adjacent oceans. We suggest that onset and termination of the Azolla phase depended on the degree of oceanic exchange between Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas.

Episodic fresh surface waters in the Eocene Arctic Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brinkhuis, H.; Schouten, S.; Collinson, M.E.; Sluijs, A.; Damste, J.S.S.; Dickens, G.R.; Huber, M.; Cronin, T. M.; Onodera, J.; Takahashi, K.; Bujak, J.P.; Stein, R.; Van Der Burgh, J.; Eldrett, J.S.; Harding, I.C.; Lotter, A.F.; Sangiorgi, F.; Cittert, H.V.K.V.; De Leeuw, J. W.; Matthiessen, J.; Backman, J.; Moran, K.

2006-01-01

It has been suggested, on the basis of modern hydrology and fully coupled palaeoclimate simulations, that the warm greenhouse conditions that characterized the early Palaeogene period (55-45 Myr ago) probably induced an intensified hydrological cycle with precipitation exceeding evaporation at high latitudes. Little field evidence, however, has been available to constrain oceanic conditions in the Arctic during this period. Here we analyse Palaeogene sediments obtained during the Arctic Coring Expedition, showing that large quantities of the free-floating fern Azolla grew and reproduced in the Arctic Ocean by the onset of the middle Eocene epoch (???50 Myr ago). The Azolla and accompanying abundant freshwater organic and siliceous microfossils indicate an episodic freshening of Arctic surface waters during an ???800,000-year interval. The abundant remains of Azolla that characterize basal middle Eocene marine deposits of all Nordic seas probably represent transported assemblages resulting from freshwater spills from the Arctic Ocean that reached as far south as the North Sea. The termination of the Azolla phase in the Arctic coincides with a local sea surface temperature rise from ???10??C to 13??C, pointing to simultaneous increases in salt and heat supply owing to the influx of waters from adjacent oceans. We suggest that onset and termination of the Azolla phase depended on the degree of oceanic exchange between Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas. ?? 2006 Nature Publishing Group.

Fiber-coupling efficiency of Gaussian-Schell model beams through an ocean to fiber optical communication link

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Beibei; Shi, Haifeng; Zhang, Yixin

2018-06-01

We theoretically study the fiber-coupling efficiency of Gaussian-Schell model beams propagating through oceanic turbulence. The expression of the fiber-coupling efficiency is derived based on the spatial power spectrum of oceanic turbulence and the cross-spectral density function. Our work shows that the salinity fluctuation has a greater impact on the fiber-coupling efficiency than temperature fluctuation does. We can select longer λ in the "ocean window" and higher spatial coherence of light source to improve the fiber-coupling efficiency of the communication link. We also can achieve the maximum fiber-coupling efficiency by choosing design parameter according specific oceanic turbulence condition. Our results are able to help the design of optical communication link for oceanic turbulence to fiber sensor.

Regional and climate forcing on forage fish and apex predators in the California Current: new insights from a fully coupled ecosystem model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, J.; Rose, K.; Curchitser, E. N.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Costa, D. P.; Hedstrom, K.

2016-12-01

A fully coupled ecosystem model is used to describe the impact of regional and climate variability on changes in abundance and distribution of forage fish and apex predators in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel (NEMURO) embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel (ROMS), and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for two forage fish species (sardine and anchovy) and one apex predator (California sea lion). Sardine and anchovy are specifically included in the model as they exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances, and are commonly found in the diet of California sea lions. Output from the model demonstrates how regional-scale (i.e., upwelling intensity) and basin-scale (i.e., PDO and ENSO signals) physical processes control species distributions and predator-prey interactions on interannual time scales. The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions leads to the formation of seasonal hotspots where prey and predator spatially overlap. While specifically focused on sardine, anchovy and sea lions, the modeling framework presented here can provide new insights into the physical and biological mechanisms controlling trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change.

PubMed

Jones, Daniel O B; Yool, Andrew; Wei, Chih-Lin; Henson, Stephanie A; Ruhl, Henry A; Watson, Reg A; Gehlen, Marion

2014-06-01

Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091-2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006-2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide. © 2013 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Astronomical constraints on global carbon-cycle perturbation during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yong-Xiang; Montañez, Isabel P.; Liu, Zhonghui; Ma, Lifeng

2017-03-01

Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2) was a major disturbance in global carbon cycling and transient climate disruption, triggered by a pulse of volcanic CO2. Although this well-studied perturbation to the ocean-atmosphere system offers a unique opportunity to better understand abrupt climate change in response to CO2-forcing, the origin, evolution and duration of the event are still debated due in large part to the temporal resolution of existing OAE2 records and uncertainty over the duration of the overall perturbation and C cycle shifts within it. Here we report coupled magnetic susceptibility (MS) and carbon-isotope time-series of ∼2.5 to 5 ± 0.5kyr resolution from an expanded OAE2 interval from southern Tibet, China. MS cyclicity indicates short eccentricity modulation, permitting the construction of a high-precision orbital timescale which, when integrated with the high resolution δ13Ccarb record, fully constrains the timing and nature of onset through recovery of OAE2, revealing finer-scale structure than previously recognized. Abrupt coupled shifts in δ13Ccarb and MS, and changing phase relationships in-step with transitions between high and low long eccentricity, indicate orbitally linked changes in marine carbon cycling and monsoon dynamics superimposed on repeated wholesale oceanographic changes. In particular, the high-resolution Tibetan record reveals dynamic shifts in the phasing relationship of MS and δ13 C, which suggests that the initiation of ocean anoxia was probably not orbitally forced. This finding is in sharp contrast with the paradigm of orbitally forced ocean anoxia. Conversely, the new record suggests that termination of anoxia was likely orbitally forced and superimposed on a dramatic oceanographic change.

Influence of Sea Ice on the Thermohaline Circulation in the Arctic-North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mauritzen, Cecilie; Haekkinen, Sirpa

1997-01-01

A fully prognostic coupled ocean-ice model is used to study the sensitivity of the overturning cell of the Arctic-North-Atlantic system to sea ice forcing. The strength of the thermohaline cell will be shown to depend on the amount of sea ice transported from the Arctic to the Greenland Sea and further to the subpolar gyre. The model produces a 2-3 Sv increase of the meridional circulation cell at 25N (at the simulation year 15) corresponding to a decrease of 800 cu km in the sea ice export from the Arctic. Previous modeling studies suggest that interannual and decadal variability in sea ice export of this magnitude is realistic, implying that sea ice induced variability in the overturning cell can reach 5-6 Sv from peak to peak.

Computed and observed turbulent heat fluxes during an extreme Bora event in the Adriatic using atmosphere-ocean coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ličer, Matjaž; Smerkol, Peter; Fettich, Anja; Ravdas, Michalis; Papapostolou, Alexandros; Mantziafou, Anneta; Strajnar, Benedikt; Cedilnik, Jure; Jeromel, Maja; Jerman, Jure; Petan, Sašo; Benetazzo, Alvise; Carniel, Sandro; Malačič, Vlado; Sofianos, Sarantis

2016-04-01

We have studied the performances of (a) a two-way coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system and (b) one-way coupled ocean model (forced by the atmosphere model), as compared to the available in situ measurements during and after a strong Adriatic Bora wind event in February 2012, which led to extreme air-sea interactions. The simulations span the period between January and March 2012. The models used were ALADIN (4.4 km resolution) on the atmosphere side and Adriatic setup of POM (1°/30 × 1°/30 angular resolution) on the ocean side. The atmosphere-ocean coupling was implemented using the OASIS3-MCT model coupling toolkit. Two-way coupling ocean feedback to the atmosphere is limited to sea surface temperature. We have compared modeled atmosphere-ocean fluxes (computed using modified Louis scheme) and sea temperatures from both setups to platform and CTD measurements of fluxes (computed using COARE scheme) and temperatures from three observational platforms (Vida, Paloma, Acqua Alta) in the Northern Adriatic. We show that turbulent fluxes from both setups differ up to 20% during the Bora but not significantly before and after the event. The impact of the coupling on the ocean is significant while the impact on the atmosphere is less pronounced. When compared to observations, two way coupling ocean temperatures exhibit a four times lower RMSE than those from one-way coupled system. Two-way coupling improves sensible heat fluxes at all stations but does not improve latent heat loss.

Dynamical Coupling Between the Stratosphere and the Troposphere: The Influence of External Forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Felicitas; Matthes, Katja

2013-04-01

The dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere is dominated by planetary waves that are generated in the troposphere by orography and land-sea contrasts. These waves travel upward into the stratosphere where they either dissipate or are reflected downward to impact the troposphere again. Through the interaction with the zonal mean flow planetary waves can induce stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), i.e., conditions during NH winter where the stratospheric polar vortex is disturbed so that the zonal mean zonal wind in the NH stratospheric jet becomes easterly and the polar cap meridional temperature gradient reverses. Since strong major SSWs can propagate down into the troposphere and even affect surface weather, SSWs present a strong and clear manifestation of the dynamical coupling in the stratosphere-troposphere system. We will investigate the influence of some external forcings, namely sea surface temperatures (SSTs), anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), on these coupling processes. Thereby we are interested in how the distribution of SSWs in the winter months changes due to the different forcings, whether the events evolve differently, and whether they show differences in their preconditioning, e.g. a different wave geometry. We will also investigate whether and how vertical reflective surfaces in the stratosphere, which can reflect upward propagating planetary waves, influence the evolution of SSWs. To address these questions, we performed a set of model simulations with NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM), a coupled model system including an interactive ocean (POP2), land (CLM4), sea ice (CICE) and atmosphere (NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)) component. Our control experiment is a 140-year simulation with the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean version of CESM. A second experiment is a 55-year simulation with only CESM's atmospheric component WACCM, a fully interactive chemistry-climate model extending from the Earth's surface through the thermosphere (about 140 km), with underlying climatological SSTs obtained from the coupled CESM control run. A third 55-year simulation is performed without the nudging of the equatorial QBO. All three simulations develop under conditions where greenhouse gases are held constant at the 1960 level. In a fourth simulations, the greenhouse gases follow the RCP8.5 scenario. From the differences of the individual simulations to the control experiment we can estimate the respective roles of SSTs, the QBO and anthropogenic greenhouse gases for the stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The model results will be compared to the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset.

Nature Run for the North Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Region: System Evaluation and Regional Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kourafalou, V.; Androulidakis, I.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Kang, H.; Mehari, M. F.; Atlas, R. M.

2016-02-01

A prototype ocean Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) system, first developed and data validated in the Gulf of Mexico, has been applied on the extended North Atlantic Ocean hurricane region. The main objectives of this study are: a) to contribute toward a fully relocatable ocean OSSE system by expanding the Gulf of Mexico OSSE to the North Atlantic Ocean; b) demonstrate and quantify improvements in hurricane forecasting when the ocean component of coupled hurricane models is advanced through targeted observations and assimilation. The system is based on the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and has been applied on a 1/250 Mercator mesh for the free-running Nature Run (NR) and on a 1/120 Mercator mesh for the data assimilative forecast model (FM). A "fraternal twin" system is employed, using two different realizations for NR and FM, each configured to produce substantially different physics and truncation errors. The NR has been evaluated using a variety of available observations, such as from AVISO, GDEM climatology and GHRSST observations, plus specific regional products (upper ocean profiles from air-borne instruments, surface velocity maps derived from the historical drifter data set and tropical cyclone heat potential maps derived from altimetry observations). The utility of the OSSE system to advance the knowledge of regional air-sea interaction processes related to hurricane activity is demonstrated in the Amazon region (salinity induced surface barrier layer) and the Gulf Stream region (hurricane impact on the Gulf Stream extension).

The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; King, Robert; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian

2015-04-01

The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HadGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). At present the analysis from separate ocean and atmosphere DA systems are combined to produced coupled forecasts. The aim of coupled DA is to produce a more consistent analysis for coupled forecasts which may lead to less initialisation shock and improved forecast performance. The HadGEM3 coupled model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To isolate the impact of the coupled DA, 13-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day and 10-day forecast runs, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA SST data. The performance of the coupled DA is similar to the existing separate ocean and atmosphere DA systems. This is despite the fact that the assimilation error covariances have not yet been tuned for coupled DA. In addition, the coupled model also exhibits some biases which do not affect the uncoupled models. An example is precipitation and run off errors affecting the ocean salinity. This of course impacts the performance of the ocean data assimilation. This does, however, highlight a particular benefit of data assimilation in that it can help to identify short term model biases by using, for example, the differences between the observations and model background (innovations) and the mean increments. Coupled DA has the distinct advantage that this gives direct information about the coupled model short term biases. By identifying the biases and developing solutions this will improve the short range coupled forecasts, and may also improve the coupled model on climate timescales.

Influence of coupling on atmosphere, sea ice and ocean regional models in the Ross Sea sector, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Mathiot, Pierre; Gallée, Hubert; Barnier, Bernard

2011-04-01

Air-sea ice-ocean interactions in the Ross Sea sector form dense waters that feed the global thermohaline circulation. In this paper, we develop the new limited-area ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model TANGO to simulate the Ross Sea sector. TANGO is built up by coupling the atmospheric limited-area model MAR to a regional configuration of the ocean-sea ice model NEMO. A method is then developed to identify the mechanisms by which local coupling affects the simulations. TANGO is shown to simulate realistic sea ice properties and atmospheric surface temperatures. These skills are mostly related to the skills of the stand alone atmospheric and oceanic models used to build TANGO. Nonetheless, air temperatures over ocean and winter sea ice thickness are found to be slightly improved in coupled simulations as compared to standard stand alone ones. Local atmosphere ocean feedbacks over the open ocean are found to significantly influence ocean temperature and salinity. In a stand alone ocean configuration, the dry and cold air produces an ocean cooling through sensible and latent heat loss. In a coupled configuration, the atmosphere is in turn moistened and warmed by the ocean; sensible and latent heat loss is therefore reduced as compared to the stand alone simulations. The atmosphere is found to be less sensitive to local feedbacks than the ocean. Effects of local feedbacks are increased in the coastal area because of the presence of sea ice. It is suggested that slow heat conduction within sea ice could amplify the feedbacks. These local feedbacks result in less sea ice production in polynyas in coupled mode, with a subsequent reduction in deep water formation.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Assessing sea wave and spray effects on Marine Boundary Layer structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stathopoulos, Christos; Galanis, George; Patlakas, Platon; Kallos, George

2017-04-01

Air sea interface is characterized by several mechanical and thermodynamical processes. Heat, moisture and momentum exchanges increase the complexity in modeling the atmospheric-ocean system. Near surface atmospheric levels are subject to sea surface roughness and sea spray. Sea spray fluxes can affect atmospheric stability and induce microphysical processes such as sea salt particle formation and condensation/evaporation of water in the boundary layer. Moreover, presence of sea spray can alter stratification over the ocean surface with further insertion of water vapor. This can lead to modified stability conditions and to wind profiles that deviate significantly from the logarithmic approximation. To model these effects, we introduce a fully coupled system consisting of the mesoscale atmospheric model RAMS/ICLAMS and the wave model WAM. The system encompasses schemes for ocean surface roughness, sea salt aerosols and droplet thermodynamic processes and handles sea salt as predictive quantity. Numerical experiments using the developed atmospheric-ocean system are performed over the Atlantic and Mediterranean shoreline. Emphasis is given to the quantification of the improvement obtained in the description of the marine boundary layer, particularly in its lower part as well as in wave characteristics.

Water isotopes and the Eocene. A tectonic sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legrande, A. N.; Roberts, C. D.; Tripati, A.; Schmidt, G. A.

2009-04-01

The early Eocene (54 Million years ago) is one of the warmest periods in the last 65 Million years. Its climate is postulated to have been the result of enhanced greenhouse gas concentration, with CO2 roughly 4 times pre-industrial and methane 7 times pre-industrial concentrations. One interesting feature of this period to emerge recently is the intermittent presence of fossilized Azolla, a type of freshwater fern, in the Arctic Ocean. Synchronous (within dating error) with this appearance were major changes in the restriction of the Arctic Ocean and the other global oceans. We investigate this time period using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model that incorporates water isotopes throughout the hydrologic cycle, making it an ideal model to test hypotheses of past climate change and to compare to paleoclimate proxy data. We assess the impact of tectonic variability by using minimal and maximal levels of restriction for the Arctic Ocean seaways. We find that the modulation of connectivity of these basins dramatically alters global salinity distribution, leading to large changes in ocean circulation. Greater restriction of the Arctic Basin is associated with fresh and relatively warmer conditions. The same mechanisms responsible for this redistribution of salt also change the global distribution of water isotopes, and can alias (water isotope) proxy climate signals of warmth.

Characteristics of the Nordic Seas overflows in a set of Norwegian Earth System Model experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Chuncheng; Ilicak, Mehmet; Bentsen, Mats; Fer, Ilker

2016-08-01

Global ocean models with an isopycnic vertical coordinate are advantageous in representing overflows, as they do not suffer from topography-induced spurious numerical mixing commonly seen in geopotential coordinate models. In this paper, we present a quantitative diagnosis of the Nordic Seas overflows in four configurations of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) family that features an isopycnic ocean model. For intercomparison, two coupled ocean-sea ice and two fully coupled (atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice) experiments are considered. Each pair consists of a (non-eddying) 1° and a (eddy-permitting) 1/4° horizontal resolution ocean model. In all experiments, overflow waters remain dense and descend to the deep basins, entraining ambient water en route. Results from the 1/4° pair show similar behavior in the overflows, whereas the 1° pair show distinct differences, including temperature/salinity properties, volume transport (Q), and large scale features such as the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The volume transport of the overflows and degree of entrainment are underestimated in the 1° experiments, whereas in the 1/4° experiments, there is a two-fold downstream increase in Q, which matches observations well. In contrast to the 1/4° experiments, the coarse 1° experiments do not capture the inclined isopycnals of the overflows or the western boundary current off the Flemish Cap. In all experiments, the pathway of the Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water is misrepresented: a major fraction of the overflow proceeds southward into the West European Basin, instead of turning westward into the Irminger Sea. This discrepancy is attributed to excessive production of Labrador Sea Water in the model. The mean state and variability of the Nordic Seas overflows have significant consequences on the response of the AMOC, hence their correct representations are of vital importance in global ocean and climate modelling.

Improving the Representation of Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Q.; Whitney, M. M.; Bryan, F.; Tseng, Y. H.

2016-12-01

The exchange of freshwater between the rivers and estuaries and the open ocean represents a unique form of scale-interaction in the climate system. The local variability in the terrestrial hydrologic cycle is integrated by rivers over potentially large drainage basins (up to semi-continental scales), and is then imposed on the coastal ocean at the scale of a river mouth. Appropriately treating riverine freshwater discharge into the oceans in Earth system models is a challenging problem. Commonly, the river runoff is discharged into the ocean models with zero salinity and arbitrarily distributed either horizontally or vertically over several grid cells. Those approaches entirely neglect estuarine physical processes that modify river inputs before they reach the open ocean. A physically based Estuary Box Model (EBM) is developed to parameterize the mixing processes in estuaries. The EBM has a two-layer structure representing the mixing processes driven by tides and shear flow within the estuaries. It predicts the magnitude of the mixing driven exchange flow, bringing saltier lower-layer shelf water into the estuary to mix with river water prior to discharge to the upper-layer open ocean. The EBM has been tested against observations and high-resolution three-dimensional simulations of the Columbia River estuary, showing excellent agreement in the predictions of the strength of the exchange flow and the salinity of the discharged water, including modulation with the spring-neap tidal cycle. The EBM is implemented globally at every river discharge point of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In coupled ocean-sea ice experiments driven by CORE surface forcing, the sea surface salinity (SSS) in the coastal ocean is increased globally compared to the standard model, contributing to a decrease in coastal stratification. The SSS near the mouths of some of the largest rivers is decreased due to the reduction in the area over which riverine fresh water is discharged. The results from experiments with the fully coupled CESM are broadly consistent, supporting the inclusion of the parameterization in CESM version 2 to be released in late 2016.

Global Climate Impacts of Fixing the Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kay, Jennifer E.; Wall, Casey; Yettella, Vineel

Here, a large, long-standing, and pervasive climate model bias is excessive absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) over the midlatitude oceans, especially the Southern Ocean. This study investigates both the underlying mechanisms for and climate impacts of this bias within the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. Excessive Southern Ocean ASR in CESM1(CAM5) results in part because low-level clouds contain insufficient amounts of supercooled liquid. In a present-day atmosphere-only run, an observationally motivated modification to the shallow convection detrainment increases supercooled cloud liquid, brightens low-level clouds, and substantially reduces the Southern Ocean ASR bias.more » Tuning to maintain global energy balance enables reduction of a compensating tropical ASR bias. In the resulting preindustrial fully coupled run with a brighter Southern Ocean and dimmer tropics, the Southern Ocean cools and the tropics warm. As a result of the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, poleward heat transport increases in both hemispheres (especially the Southern Hemisphere), and the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric jet strengthens. Because northward cross-equatorial heat transport reductions occur primarily in the ocean (80%), not the atmosphere (20%), a proposed atmospheric teleconnection linking Southern Ocean ASR bias reduction and cooling with northward shifts in tropical precipitation has little impact. In summary, observationally motivated supercooled liquid water increases in shallow convective clouds enable large reductions in long-standing climate model shortwave radiation biases. Of relevance to both model bias reduction and climate dynamics, quantifying the influence of Southern Ocean cooling on tropical precipitation requires a model with dynamic ocean heat transport.« less

Global Climate Impacts of Fixing the Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

DOE PAGES

Kay, Jennifer E.; Wall, Casey; Yettella, Vineel; ...

2016-06-10

Here, a large, long-standing, and pervasive climate model bias is excessive absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) over the midlatitude oceans, especially the Southern Ocean. This study investigates both the underlying mechanisms for and climate impacts of this bias within the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. Excessive Southern Ocean ASR in CESM1(CAM5) results in part because low-level clouds contain insufficient amounts of supercooled liquid. In a present-day atmosphere-only run, an observationally motivated modification to the shallow convection detrainment increases supercooled cloud liquid, brightens low-level clouds, and substantially reduces the Southern Ocean ASR bias.more » Tuning to maintain global energy balance enables reduction of a compensating tropical ASR bias. In the resulting preindustrial fully coupled run with a brighter Southern Ocean and dimmer tropics, the Southern Ocean cools and the tropics warm. As a result of the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, poleward heat transport increases in both hemispheres (especially the Southern Hemisphere), and the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric jet strengthens. Because northward cross-equatorial heat transport reductions occur primarily in the ocean (80%), not the atmosphere (20%), a proposed atmospheric teleconnection linking Southern Ocean ASR bias reduction and cooling with northward shifts in tropical precipitation has little impact. In summary, observationally motivated supercooled liquid water increases in shallow convective clouds enable large reductions in long-standing climate model shortwave radiation biases. Of relevance to both model bias reduction and climate dynamics, quantifying the influence of Southern Ocean cooling on tropical precipitation requires a model with dynamic ocean heat transport.« less

Interannual variability (1979-2013) of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water mass formation: past observation reanalysis and coupled ocean-atmosphere high-resolution modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somot, Samuel; Houpert, Loic; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre; Bosse, Anthony; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Dubois, Clotilde; Herrmann, Marine; Waldman, Robin; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Cassou, Christophe

2015-04-01

The North-Western Mediterranean Sea is known as one of the only place in the world where open-sea deep convection occurs (often up to more than 2000m) with the formation of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). This phenomena is mostly driven by local preconditioning of the water column and strong buoyancy losses during Winter. At the event scale, the WMDW formation is characterized by different phases (preconditioning, strong mixing, restratification and spreading), intense air-sea interaction and strong meso-scale activity but, on a longer time scale, it also shows a large interannual variability and may be strongly affected by climate change with impact on the regional biogeochemistry. Therefore observing, simulating and understanding the long-term temporal variability of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water formation is still today a very challenging task. We try here to tackle those issues thanks to (1) a thorough reanalysis of past in-situ observations (CTD, Argo, surface and deep moorings, gliders) and (2) an ERA-Interim driven simulation using a recently-developed fully coupled Regional Climate System Model (CNRM-RCSM4, Sevault et al. 2014). The multi-decadal simulation (1979-2013) is designed to be temporally and spatially homogeneous with a realistic chronology, a high resolution representation of both the regional ocean and atmosphere, specific initial conditions, a long-term spin-up and a full ocean-atmosphere coupling without constraint at the air-sea interface. The observation reanalysis allows to reconstruct interannual time series of deep water formation indicators (ocean surface variables, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, dense water volumes and characteristics of the deep water). Using the observation-based indicators and the model outputs, the 34 Winters of the period 1979-2013 are analysed in terms of weather regimes, related Winter air-sea fluxes, ocean preconditioning, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, deep water formation rate and long-term evolution of the deep water hydrology.

Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling Processes Affecting Predictability in the Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A. J.; Subramanian, A. C.; Seo, H.; Eliashiv, J. D.

2017-12-01

Predictions of the ocean and atmosphere are often sensitive to coupling at the air-sea interface in ways that depend on the temporal and spatial scales of the target fields. We will discuss several aspects of these types of coupled interactions including oceanic and atmospheric forecast applications. For oceanic mesoscale eddies, the coupling can influence the energetics of the oceanic flow itself. For Madden-Julian Oscillation onset, the coupling timestep should resolve the diurnal cycle to properly raise time-mean SST and latent heat flux prior to deep convection. For Atmospheric River events, the evolving SST field can alter the trajectory and intensity of precipitation anomalies along the California coast. Improvements in predictions will also rely on identifying and alleviating sources of biases in the climate states of the coupled system. Surprisingly, forecast skill can also be improved by enhancing stochastic variability in the atmospheric component of coupled models as found in a multiscale ensemble modeling approach.

The Effect of the Leeuwin Current on Offshore Surface Gravity Waves in Southwest Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; Cosoli, Simone; Pattiaratchi, Charitha

2017-11-01

The knowledge of regional wave regimes is critical for coastal zone planning, protection, and management. In this study, the influence of the offshore current regime on surface gravity waves on the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) continental shelf was examined. This was achieved by coupling the three dimensional, free surface, terrain-following hydrodynamic Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) and the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-WaveSediment Transport (COAWST) model. Different representative states of the Leeuwin Current (LC), a strong pole-ward flowing boundary current with a persistent eddy field along the SWWA shelf edge were simulated and used to investigate their influence on different large wave events. The coupled wave-current simulations were compared to wave only simulations, which represented scenarios in the absence of a background current field. Results showed that the LC and the eddy field significantly impact SWWA waves. Significant wave heights increased (decreased) when currents were opposing (aligning with) the incoming wave directions. During a fully developed LC system significant wave heights were altered by up to ±25% and wave directions by up to ±20°. The change in wave direction indicates that the LC may modify nearshore wave dynamics and consequently alter sediment patterns. Operational regional wave forecasts and hindcasts may give flawed predictions if wave-current interaction is not properly accounted for.

Simulating Heinrich events in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian

2016-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of long-term climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet - climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability without the need to prescribe external perturbations, as was the standard approach in almost all model studies so far. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global coarse resolution AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations used for this analysis were an ensemble covering substantial parts of the late Glacial forced with transient insolation and prescribed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport, but none of the Heinrich events during the Glacial did show a complete collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The simulated main consequences of the Heinrich events are a freshening and cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying over northern Europe.

Dynamic and static equilibrium sea level effects of Greenland Ice Sheet melt: An assessment of partially-coupled idealized water hosing experiments (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Griffies, S. M.; Yin, J.; Hay, C. C.; Stouffer, R. J.

2010-12-01

Regional sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution. Both effects will contribute to future sea level change, but because they are studied by two different subdisciplines -- climate modeling and glacial rebound modeling -- projections that attempt to combine both have to date been scarce. To compare their magnitude, we simulated the effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt by conducting idealized North Atlantic "water-hosing" experiments in a climate model unidirectionally coupled to a SE sea level model. At current rates of GIS melt, freshwater hosing experiments in fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) do not yield clear DSL trends but do generate DSL variability; comparing that variability to expected static equilibrium "fingerprints" suggests that at least about 40 years of observations are needed to detect the "fingerprints" of ice sheet melt at current Greenland melt rates of about 0.3 mm equivalent sea level (esl)/year. Accelerated melt rates of about 2--6 mm esl/y, as may occur later in the century, should be detectable above background DSL variability within less than a decade of their onset. At these higher melt rates, AOGCMs do yield clear DSL trends. In the GFDL CM 2.1 model, DSL trends are strongest in the western North Atlantic, while SE effects come to dominate in most of the ocean when melt exceeds about 20 cm esl.

Ocean Color and the Equatorial Annual Cycle in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammann, A. C.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2012-12-01

The presence of chlorophyll, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and other scatterers in ocean surface waters affect the flux divergence of solar radiation and thus the vertical distribution of radiant heating of the ocean. While this may directly alter the local mixed-layer depth and temperature (Martin 1985; Strutton & Chavez 2004), non-local changes are propagated through advection (Manizza et al. 2005; Murtugudde et al. 2002; Nakamoto et al. 2001; Sweeny et al. 2005). In and coupled feedbacks (Lengaigne et al. 2007; Marzeion & Timmermann 2005). Anderson et al. (2007), Anderson et al. (2009) and Gnanadesikan & Anderson (2009) have performed a series of experiments with a fully coupled climate model which parameterizes the e-folding depth of solar irradiance in terms of surface chlorophyll-a concentration. The results have so far been discussed with respect to the climatic mean state and ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific. We extend the discussion here to the Pacific equatorial annual cycle. The focus of the coupled experiments has been the sensitivity of the coupled system to regional differences in chlorophyll concentration. While runs have been completed with realistic SeaWiFS-derived monthly composite chlorophyll ('green') and with a globally chlorophyll-free ocean ('blue'), the concentrations in two additional runs have been selectively set to zero in specific regions: the oligotrophic subtropical gyres ('gyre') in one case and the mesotrophic gyre margins ('margin') in the other. The annual cycle of ocean temperatures exhibits distinctly reduced amplitudes in the 'blue' and 'margin' experiments, and a slight reduction in 'gyre' (while ENSO variability almost vanishes in 'blue' and 'gyre', but amplifies in 'margin' - thus the frequently quoted inverse correlation between ENSO and annual amplitudes holds only for the 'green' / 'margin' comparison). It is well-known that on annual time scales, the anomalous divergence of surface currents and vertical upwelling acting on a mean temperature field contribute the largest term to SST variability (Köberle & Philander 1994; Li & Philander 1996). We examine whether it is changes in the surface currents (driven by the annual cycle of winds) or changes in the mean temperature fields (driven by enhanced penetration of solar radiation) that drive the differences between the coupled models. We do this using a simple linear equatorial-wave model, which, when forced with an annual harmonic of wind stresses, reproduces the essential characteristics of annual ocean current anomalies. The model solves the linearized Boussinesq equations by expansion into discrete modes in all spatial dimensions (McCreary 1981; Lighthill 1969). Both the wind forcing and the (laterally homogeneous) background density profile are constructed as approximations to the coupled model fields. The annual perturbation currents from the wave model are then used to advect the mean temperature fields from the coupled model experiments. While the difference in the mean stratification explains the difference between the 'green' and 'blue' cases. For the other two cases, it appears that changes in the annual wind fields need also be taken into account. An initial hypothesis is that the hemispheric asymmetry in the annual amplitude of wind stress curl that is most important in setting the amplitude of the annual cycle on the equator.

Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, Kelly E.

Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated. We show that upon cessation, an abrupt, spatially broad, and sustained warming over land occurs that is well outside the bounds of 20th century climate variability. We then use an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to further show the sensitivity of these trends to background greenhouse gas emissions, termination year, and climate sensitivity. We find that the rate of warming from cessation of solar radiation management -- of critical importance for ecological and human systems -- is principally controlled by the background greenhouse gas concentrations. It follows that the only way to avoid the risk of an abrupt and dangerous warming that is inherent to the large-scale implementation of solar radiation management is to also strongly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The climate system responds to radiative forcing on a diverse spectrum of timescales, which will affect what goals can be achieved for a given stratospheric aerosol implementation. We next investigate how different rates of stratospheric sulfate aerosol deployment affect what climate impacts can be avoided by simulating two rates of increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations in a fully-coupled global climate model. We find that disparate goals are achieved for different rates of deployment; for a slow ramping of sulfate, land surface temperature trends remain small but sea levels continue to rise for decades, whereas a quick ramp-up of sulfate yields large land surface cooling trends and immediately reduces sea level. However, atmospheric circulation changes also act to create a large-scale subsurface ocean environment around Antarctica that is favorable for increased basal melting of ice sheet outlets, thereby leaving the potential open for increased sea level rise even in the absence of large atmospheric surface warming. We show that instead, when greenhouse gases are abruptly returned to preindustrial levels, circulation anomalies are reversed, and the subsurface ocean environment does not pose the same threat to Antarctic ice sheets. We conclude that again, reduction of greenhouse gases is the preferred strategy for avoiding climate impacts of global warming.

Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

2017-12-01

Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

Fast Atmosphere-Ocean Model Runs with Large Changes in CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Gary L.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Rind, David H.; Colose, Christopher; Opstbaum, Roger F.

2013-01-01

How does climate sensitivity vary with the magnitude of climate forcing? This question was investigated with the use of a modified coupled atmosphere-ocean model, whose stability was improved so that the model would accommodate large radiative forcings yet be fast enough to reach rapid equilibrium. Experiments were performed in which atmospheric CO2 was multiplied by powers of 2, from 1/64 to 256 times the 1950 value. From 8 to 32 times, the 1950 CO2, climate sensitivity for doubling CO2 reaches 8 C due to increases in water vapor absorption and cloud top height and to reductions in low level cloud cover. As CO2 amount increases further, sensitivity drops as cloud cover and planetary albedo stabilize. No water vapor-induced runaway greenhouse caused by increased CO2 was found for the range of CO2 examined. With CO2 at or below 1/8 of the 1950 value, runaway sea ice does occur as the planet cascades to a snowball Earth climate with fully ice covered oceans and global mean surface temperatures near 30 C.

Contrasting spatial structures of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation between observations and slab ocean model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Kucharski, Fred; Xue, Jiaqing; Li, Xiang

2018-04-01

The spatial structure of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is analyzed and compared between the observations and simulations from slab ocean models (SOMs) and fully coupled models. The observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern of AMO is characterized by a basin-wide monopole structure, and there is a significantly high degree of spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across the entire North Atlantic basin. The observed SST anomalies share a common decadal-scale signal, corresponding to the basin-wide average (i. e., the AMO). In contrast, the simulated AMO in SOMs (AMOs) exhibits a tripole-like structure, with the mid-latitude North Atlantic SST showing an inverse relationship with other parts of the basin, and the SOMs fail to reproduce the observed strong spatial coherence of decadal SST variations associated with the AMO. The observed spatial coherence of AMO SST anomalies is identified as a key feature that can be used to distinguish the AMO mechanism. The tripole-like SST pattern of AMOs in SOMs can be largely explained by the atmosphere-forced thermodynamics mechanism due to the surface heat flux changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The thermodynamic forcing of AMOs by the NAO gives rise to a simultaneous inverse NAO-AMOs relationship at both interannual and decadal timescales and a seasonal phase locking of the AMOs variability to the cold season. However, the NAO-forced thermodynamics mechanism cannot explain the observed NAO-AMO relationship and the seasonal phase locking of observed AMO variability to the warm season. At decadal timescales, a strong lagged relationship between NAO and AMO is observed, with the NAO leading by up to two decades, while the simultaneous correlation of NAO with AMO is weak. This lagged relationship and the spatial coherence of AMO can be well understood from the view point of ocean dynamics. A time-integrated NAO index, which reflects the variations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and northward ocean heat transport caused by the accumulated effect of NAO forcing, reasonably well captures the observed multidecadal fluctuations in the AMO. Further analysis using the fully coupled model simulations provides direct modeling evidence that the observed spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across North Atlantic basin can be reproduced only by including the AMOC-related ocean dynamics, and the AMOC acts as a common forcing signal that results in a spatially coherent variation of North Atlantic SST.

Description and verification of a U.S. Naval Research Lab's loosely coupled data assimilation system for the Navy's Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, N. P.; Metzger, E. J.; Smedstad, O. M.; Ruston, B. C.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Whitcomb, T.; Ridout, J. A.; Zamudio, L.; Posey, P.; Reynolds, C. A.; Richman, J. G.; Phelps, M.

2017-12-01

The Naval Research Laboratory is developing an Earth System Model (NESM) to provide global environmental information to meet Navy and Department of Defense (DoD) operations and planning needs from the upper atmosphere to under the sea. This system consists of a global atmosphere, ocean, ice, wave, and land prediction models and the individual models include: atmosphere - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM); ocean - HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM); sea ice - Community Ice CodE (CICE); WAVEWATCH III™; and land - NAVGEM Land Surface Model (LSM). Data assimilation is currently loosely coupled between the atmosphere component using a 6-hour update cycle in the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System - Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) and the ocean/ice components using a 24-hour update cycle in the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) with 3 hours of incremental updating. This presentation will describe the US Navy's coupled forecast model, the loosely coupled data assimilation, and compare results against stand-alone atmosphere and ocean/ice models. In particular, we will focus on the unique aspects of this modeling system, which includes an eddy resolving ocean model and challenges associated with different update-windows and solvers for the data assimilation in the atmosphere and ocean. Results will focus on typical operational diagnostics for atmosphere, ocean, and ice analyses including 500 hPa atmospheric height anomalies, low-level winds, temperature/salinity ocean depth profiles, ocean acoustical proxies, sea ice edge, and sea ice drift. Overall, the global coupled system is performing with comparable skill to the stand-alone systems.

Simulation of the Pinatubo Impact on the Red Sea Using Coupled Regional Ocean/Atmosphere Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on the Middle East regional climate response to the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption of 1991. It is motivated by the observed severe winter cooling in the Middle East during the winter of 1991/92. The Red Sea surface temperature dropped by more than 1K and deep water mixing caused coral bleaching for a few years. To better understand the mechanisms of the Middle East climate response and evaluate the effects of radiative cooling and regional meteorological processes on the Red Sea, we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The WRF code was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Spectral optical properties of sulfate aerosols are computed using Mie based on the Sato's optical depth. Both atmosphere and ocean models capture the main features of the MENA climate response and correctly reproduce the anomalous winter cooling of 1991/92. We find that the sea surface cooling associated with meteorological effects prevails that caused by the direct radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols. The overturning circulation in the Red Sea strengthens. The salinity distribution and deep water formation are significantly perturbed.

Effects of Langmuir Turbulence on Reactive Tracers in the Upper Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K.; Hamlington, P.; Niemeyer, K.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Lovenduski, N. S.

2017-12-01

Reactive tracers such as carbonate chemical species play important roles in the oceanic carbon cycle, allowing the ocean to hold 60 times more carbon than the atmosphere. However, uncertainties in regional ocean sinks for anthropogenic CO2 are still relatively high. Many carbonate species are non-conserved, flux across the air-sea interface, and react on time scales similar to those of ocean turbulent processes, such as small-scale wave-driven Langmuir turbulence. All of this complexity gives rise to heterogeneous tracer distributions that are not fully understood and can greatly affect the rate at which CO2 fluxes across the air-sea interface. In order to more accurately model the biogeochemistry of the ocean in Earth system models (ESMs), a better understanding of the fundamental interactions between these reactive tracers and relevant turbulent processes is required. Research on reacting flows in other contexts has shown that the most significant tracer-flow couplings occur when coherent structures in the flow have timescales that rival reaction time scales. Langmuir turbulence, a 3D, small-scale, wave-driven process, has length and time scales on the order of O(1-100m) and O(1-10min), respectively. Once CO2 transfers across the air-sea interface, it reacts with seawater in a series of reactions whose rate limiting steps have time scales of 10-25s. This similarity in scales warrants further examination into interactions between these small-scale physical and chemical processes. In this presentation, large eddy simulations are used to examine the evolution of reactive tracers in the presence of realistic upper ocean wave- and shear-driven turbulence. The reactive tracers examined are those specifically involved in non-biological carbonate chemistry. The strength of Langmuir turbulence is varied in order to determine a relationship between the degree of enhancement (or reduction) of carbon that is fluxed across the air-sea interface due to the presence of Langmuir turbulence. By examining different reaction chemistry and surface forcing scenarios, the coupled turbulence-reactive tracer dynamics are connected with spatial and statistical properties of the resulting tracer fields. These results, along with implications for development of reduced order reactive tracer models, are discussed.

Intensification of Climate-Carbon Feedbacks after 2100 and Implications for Disturbance Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K. T.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.; Moore, J. K.; Doney, S. C.; Mahowald, N. M.; Bonan, G. B.

2014-12-01

Long-term ecosystem and carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (version 1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (and its extension). In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical models were exposed to the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. In one simulation, atmospheric CO2 and other forcing agents were radiatively active (fully coupled), modifying temperature and other aspects of climate. In another, CO2 was radiatively uncoupled, and in the third, both CO2 and other atmospheric forcing agents (including CH4, N2O, and aerosols) were radiatively uncoupled. In the fully coupled simulation, global mean air temperatures increased by 9.3°C from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4°C of this warming occurring after 2100. Without radiative forcing from CO2, cumulative warming was much lower at 2.4°C, but exceeding 2°C targets needed to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. In response to climate change, ocean and land rates of carbon uptake were reduced, with the size of the impact increasing over time. In the oceans, reductions in cumulative carbon uptake from climate change increased from 3% during the 20th century to 40% during the 23rd century. By 2300, climate change had reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Most of this reduction occurred after 2100 as a consequence of increases in surface stratification and decreases in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change inducing a cumulative loss of 230 Pg C by 2300. On land the intensification of the hydrological cycle globally increased terrestrial water storage, although asymmetric responses were observed across different continents in the tropics. Net loss of carbon from tropical forest ecosystems, in response to large temperature increases, were partly offset by increases in carbon uptake in temperate and high latitude ecosystems. We conclude by presenting an assessment of how climate variability over land and burned area change century by century.

The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian; Guiavarch, Catherine; Shelly, Ann

2014-05-01

The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HADGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). This model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To show the impact of coupled DA, one-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day forecast runs, started twice a day, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA data. These all show the coupled DA system functioning well. Evidence of imbalances and initialisation shocks has also been looked for.

Estimating radiative feedbacks from stochastic fluctuations in surface temperature and energy imbalance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proistosescu, C.; Donohoe, A.; Armour, K.; Roe, G.; Stuecker, M. F.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Joint observations of global surface temperature and energy imbalance provide for a unique opportunity to empirically constrain radiative feedbacks. However, the satellite record of Earth's radiative imbalance is relatively short and dominated by stochastic fluctuations. Estimates of radiative feedbacks obtained by regressing energy imbalance against surface temperature depend strongly on sampling choices and on assumptions about whether the stochastic fluctuations are primarily forced by atmospheric or oceanic variability (e.g. Murphy and Forster 2010, Dessler 2011, Spencer and Braswell 2011, Forster 2016). We develop a framework around a stochastic energy balance model that allows us to parse the different contributions of atmospheric and oceanic forcing based on their differing impacts on the covariance structure - or lagged regression - of temperature and radiative imbalance. We validate the framework in a hierarchy of general circulation models: the impact of atmospheric forcing is examined in unforced control simulations of fixed sea-surface temperature and slab ocean model versions; the impact of oceanic forcing is examined in coupled simulations with prescribed ENSO variability. With the impact of atmospheric and oceanic forcing constrained, we are able to predict the relationship between temperature and radiative imbalance in a fully coupled control simulation, finding that both forcing sources are needed to explain the structure of the lagged-regression. We further model the dependence of feedback estimates on sampling interval by considering the effects of a finite equilibration time for the atmosphere, and issues of smoothing and aliasing. Finally, we develop a method to fit the stochastic model to the short timeseries of temperature and radiative imbalance by performing a Bayesian inference based on a modified version of the spectral Whittle likelihood. We are thus able to place realistic joint uncertainty estimates on both stochastic forcing and radiative feedbacks derived from observational records. We find that these records are, as of yet, too short to be useful in constraining radiative feedbacks, and we provide estimates of how the uncertainty narrows as a function of record length.

Compressive Spectral Method for the Simulation of the Nonlinear Gravity Waves

PubMed Central

Bayındır, Cihan

2016-01-01

In this paper an approach for decreasing the computational effort required for the spectral simulations of the fully nonlinear ocean waves is introduced. The proposed approach utilizes the compressive sampling algorithm and depends on the idea of using a smaller number of spectral components compared to the classical spectral method. After performing the time integration with a smaller number of spectral components and using the compressive sampling technique, it is shown that the ocean wave field can be reconstructed with a significantly better efficiency compared to the classical spectral method. For the sparse ocean wave model in the frequency domain the fully nonlinear ocean waves with Jonswap spectrum is considered. By implementation of a high-order spectral method it is shown that the proposed methodology can simulate the linear and the fully nonlinear ocean waves with negligible difference in the accuracy and with a great efficiency by reducing the computation time significantly especially for large time evolutions. PMID:26911357

Global biogeochemical implications of mercury discharges from rivers and sediment burial.

PubMed

Amos, Helen M; Jacob, Daniel J; Kocman, David; Horowitz, Hannah M; Zhang, Yanxu; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Horvat, Milena; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Krabbenhoft, David P; Sunderland, Elsie M

2014-08-19

Rivers are an important source of mercury (Hg) to marine ecosystems. Based on an analysis of compiled observations, we estimate global present-day Hg discharges from rivers to ocean margins are 27 ± 13 Mmol a(-1) (5500 ± 2700 Mg a(-1)), of which 28% reaches the open ocean and the rest is deposited to ocean margin sediments. Globally, the source of Hg to the open ocean from rivers amounts to 30% of atmospheric inputs. This is larger than previously estimated due to accounting for elevated concentrations in Asian rivers and variability in offshore transport across different types of estuaries. Riverine inputs of Hg to the North Atlantic have decreased several-fold since the 1970s while inputs to the North Pacific have increased. These trends have large effects on Hg concentrations at ocean margins but are too small in the open ocean to explain observed declines of seawater concentrations in the North Atlantic or increases in the North Pacific. Burial of Hg in ocean margin sediments represents a major sink in the global Hg biogeochemical cycle that has not been previously considered. We find that including this sink in a fully coupled global biogeochemical box model helps to balance the large anthropogenic release of Hg from commercial products recently added to global inventories. It also implies that legacy anthropogenic Hg can be removed from active environmental cycling on a faster time scale (centuries instead of millennia). Natural environmental Hg levels are lower than previously estimated, implying a relatively larger impact from human activity.

Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Six, Katharina D.; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Heinze, Christoph; Ilyina, Tatiana

2017-08-01

We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr-1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr-1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by -0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr-1 change in sea-air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea-air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

Evidence for infragravity wave-tide resonance in deep oceans.

PubMed

Sugioka, Hiroko; Fukao, Yoshio; Kanazawa, Toshihiko

2010-10-05

Ocean tides are the oscillatory motions of seawater forced by the gravitational attraction of the Moon and Sun with periods of a half to a day and wavelengths of the semi-Pacific to Pacific scale. Ocean infragravity (IG) waves are sea-surface gravity waves with periods of several minutes and wavelengths of several dozen kilometres. Here we report the first evidence of the resonance between these two ubiquitous phenomena, mutually very different in period and wavelength, in deep oceans. The evidence comes from long-term, large-scale observations with arrays of broadband ocean-bottom seismometers located at depths of more than 4,000 m in the Pacific Ocean. This observational evidence is substantiated by a theoretical argument that IG waves and the tide can resonantly couple and that such coupling occurs over unexpectedly wide areas of the Pacific Ocean. Through this resonant coupling, some of ocean tidal energy is transferred in deep oceans to IG wave energy.

High-resolution modeling of local air-sea interaction within the Marine Continent using COAMPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, T. G.; Chen, S.; Flatau, M. K.; Smith, T.; Rydbeck, A.

2016-12-01

The Maritime Continent (MC) is a region of intense deep atmospheric convection that serves as an important source of forcing for the Hadley and Walker circulations. The convective activity in the MC region spans multiple scales from local mesoscales to regional scales, and impacts equatorial wave propagation, coupled air-sea interaction and intra seasonal oscillations. The complex distribution of islands, shallow seas with fairly small heat storage and deep seas with large heat capacity is challenging to model. Diurnal convection over land-sea is part of a land-sea breeze system on a small scale, and is highly influenced by large variations in orography over land and marginal seas. Daytime solar insolation, run-off from the Archipelago and nighttime rainfall tends to stabilize the water column, while mixing by tidal currents and locally forced winds promote vertical mixing. The runoff from land and rivers and high net precipitation result in fresh water lenses that enhance vertical stability in the water column and help maintain high SST. We use the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave version of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) developed at NRL with resolution of a few kilometers to investigate the air-sea interaction associated with the land-sea breeze system in the MC under active and inactive phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The high resolution enables simulation of strong SST gradients associated with local upwelling in deeper waters and strong salinity gradients near rivers and from heavy precipitation.

Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

2018-02-01

The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

Quantifying the Role of Atmospheric Forcing in Ice Edge Retreat and Advance Including Wind-Wave Coupling

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Quantifying the Role of Atmospheric Forcing in Ice Edge Retreat and Advance Including Wind- Wave Coupling Peter S. Guest (NPS Technical Contact) Naval...surface fluxes and ocean waves in coupled models in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. 2. Understand the physics of heat and mass transfer from the ocean...to the atmosphere. 3. Improve forecasting of waves on the open ocean and in the marginal ice zone. 2 OBJECTIVES 1. Quantifying the open-ocean

Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven

2013-01-01

Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion

Modelling the Climate - Greenland Ice Sheet Interaction in the Coupled Ice-sheet/Climate Model EC-EARTH - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Madsen, M. S.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Svendsen, S. H.; Adalgeirsdottir, G.

2014-12-01

Recent observations show that the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass with an increasing speed during the past decades. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. A fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS has recently been developed. The model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consists of the EC-EARTH, an atmosphere, ocean and sea ice model system, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The coupling of PISM includes a modified surface physical parameterization in EC-EARTH adapted to the land ice surface over glaciated regions in Greenland. The PISM ice sheet model is forced with the surface mass balance (SMB) directly computed inside the EC-EARTH atmospheric module and accounting for the precipitation, the surface evaporation, and the melting of snow and ice over land ice. PISM returns the simulated basal melt, ice discharge and ice cover (extent and thickness) as boundary conditions to EC-EARTH. This coupled system is mass and energy conserving without being constrained by any anomaly correction or flux adjustment, and hence is suitable for investigation of ice sheet - climate feedbacks. Three multi-century experiments for warm climate scenarios under (1) the RCP85 climate forcing, (2) an abrupt 4xCO2 and (3) an idealized 1% per year CO2 increase are performed using the coupled model system. The experiments are compared with their counterparts of the standard CMIP5 simulations (without the interactive ice sheet) to evaluate the performance of the coupled system and to quantify the GrIS feedbacks. In particular, the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under the warm climate and its impacts on the climate system are investigated. Freshwater fluxes from the Greenland ice sheet melt to the Arctic and North Atlantic basin and their influence on the ocean stratification and ocean circulation are analysed. The changes in the surface climate and the atmospheric circulation associated with the impact of the Greenland ice sheet changes are quantified. The interaction between the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea ice is also examined.

Coupled Triboelectric Nanogenerator Networks for Efficient Water Wave Energy Harvesting.

PubMed

Xu, Liang; Jiang, Tao; Lin, Pei; Shao, Jia Jia; He, Chuan; Zhong, Wei; Chen, Xiang Yu; Wang, Zhong Lin

2018-02-27

Water wave energy is a promising clean energy source, which is abundant but hard to scavenge economically. Triboelectric nanogenerator (TENG) networks provide an effective approach toward massive harvesting of water wave energy in oceans. In this work, a coupling design in TENG networks for such purposes is reported. The charge output of the rationally linked units is over 10 times of that without linkage. TENG networks of three different connecting methods are fabricated and show better performance for the ones with flexible connections. The network is based on an optimized ball-shell structured TENG unit with high responsivity to small agitations. The dynamic behavior of single and multiple TENG units is also investigated comprehensively to fully understand their performance in water. The study shows that a rational design on the linkage among the units could be an effective strategy for TENG clusters to operate collaboratively for reaching a higher performance.

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High-Resolution Community Earth System Model and the Impact of Ocean Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hui; Sriver, Ryan L.

2018-01-01

High-resolution Atmosphere General Circulation Models (AGCMs) are capable of directly simulating realistic tropical cyclone (TC) statistics, providing a promising approach for TC-climate studies. Active air-sea coupling in a coupled model framework is essential to capturing TC-ocean interactions, which can influence TC-climate connections on interannual to decadal time scales. Here we investigate how the choices of ocean coupling can affect the directly simulated TCs using high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We performed a suite of high-resolution, multidecadal, global-scale CESM simulations in which the atmosphere (˜0.25° grid spacing) is configured with three different levels of ocean coupling: prescribed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) (ATM), mixed layer ocean (SLAB), and dynamic ocean (CPL). We find that different levels of ocean coupling can influence simulated TC frequency, geographical distributions, and storm intensity. ATM simulates more storms and higher overall storm intensity than the coupled simulations. It also simulates higher TC track density over the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic, while TC tracks are relatively sparse within CPL and SLAB for these regions. Storm intensification and the maximum wind speed are sensitive to the representations of local surface flux feedbacks in different coupling configurations. Key differences in storm number and distribution can be attributed to variations in the modeled large-scale climate mean state and variability that arise from the combined effect of intrinsic model biases and air-sea interactions. Results help to improve our understanding about the representation of TCs in high-resolution coupled Earth system models, with important implications for TC-climate applications.

A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

2014-12-01

High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

A coupled ice-ocean model of ice breakup and banding in the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smedstad, O. M.; Roed, L. P.

1985-01-01

A coupled ice-ocean numerical model for the marginal ice zone is considered. The model consists of a nonlinear sea ice model and a two-layer (reduced gravity) ocean model. The dependence of the upwelling response on wind stress direction is discussed. The results confirm earlier analytical work. It is shown that there exist directions for which there is no upwelling, while other directions give maximum upwelling in terms of the volume of uplifted water. The ice and ocean is coupled directly through the stress at the ice-ocean interface. An interesting consequence of the coupling is found in cases when the ice edge is almost stationary. In these cases the ice tends to break up a few tenths of kilometers inside of the ice edge.

The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks

DOE PAGES

Kessler, A.; Tjiputra, J.

2016-04-07

Earth system model (ESM) simulations exhibit large biases compares to observation-based estimates of the present ocean CO 2 sink. The inter-model spread in projections increases nearly 2-fold by the end of the 21st century and therefore contributes significantly to the uncertainty of future climate projections. In this study, the Southern Ocean (SO) is shown to be one of the hot-spot regions for future uptake of anthropogenic CO 2, characterized by both the solubility pump and biologically mediated carbon drawdown in the spring and summer. Here, we show, by analyzing a suite of fully interactive ESMs simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparisonmore » Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 21st century under the high-CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, that the SO is the only region where the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate continues to increase toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, our study discovers a strong inter-model link between the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and the projected global cumulated uptake over the 21st century. This strong correlation suggests that models with low (high) carbon uptake rate in the contemporary SO tend to simulate low (high) uptake rate in the future. None the less, our analysis also shows that none of the models fully capture the observed biophysical mechanisms governing the CO 2 fluxes in the SO. The inter-model spread for the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean is attributed to the variations in the simulated seasonal cycle of surface pCO 2. Two groups of model behavior have been identified. The first one simulates anomalously strong SO carbon uptake, generally due to both too strong a net primary production and too low a surface pCO 2 in December–January. The second group simulates an opposite CO 2 flux seasonal phase, which is driven mainly by the bias in the sea surface temperature variability. Furthermore, we show that these biases are persistent throughout the 21st century, which highlights the urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring system in the Southern Ocean to better constrain key processes represented in current model systems.« less

The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kessler, A.; Tjiputra, J.

Earth system model (ESM) simulations exhibit large biases compares to observation-based estimates of the present ocean CO 2 sink. The inter-model spread in projections increases nearly 2-fold by the end of the 21st century and therefore contributes significantly to the uncertainty of future climate projections. In this study, the Southern Ocean (SO) is shown to be one of the hot-spot regions for future uptake of anthropogenic CO 2, characterized by both the solubility pump and biologically mediated carbon drawdown in the spring and summer. Here, we show, by analyzing a suite of fully interactive ESMs simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparisonmore » Project phase 5 (CMIP5) over the 21st century under the high-CO 2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, that the SO is the only region where the atmospheric CO 2 uptake rate continues to increase toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, our study discovers a strong inter-model link between the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean and the projected global cumulated uptake over the 21st century. This strong correlation suggests that models with low (high) carbon uptake rate in the contemporary SO tend to simulate low (high) uptake rate in the future. None the less, our analysis also shows that none of the models fully capture the observed biophysical mechanisms governing the CO 2 fluxes in the SO. The inter-model spread for the contemporary CO 2 uptake in the Southern Ocean is attributed to the variations in the simulated seasonal cycle of surface pCO 2. Two groups of model behavior have been identified. The first one simulates anomalously strong SO carbon uptake, generally due to both too strong a net primary production and too low a surface pCO 2 in December–January. The second group simulates an opposite CO 2 flux seasonal phase, which is driven mainly by the bias in the sea surface temperature variability. Furthermore, we show that these biases are persistent throughout the 21st century, which highlights the urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring system in the Southern Ocean to better constrain key processes represented in current model systems.« less

The Role of Air-sea Coupling in the Response of Climate Extremes to Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, S.

2017-12-01

Air-sea interactions dominate the climate of surrounding regions and thus also modulate the climate response to local and remote aerosol forcings. To clearly isolate the role of air-sea coupling in the climate response to aerosols, we conduct experiments with a full complexity atmosphere model that is coupled to a series of ocean models progressively increasing in complexity. The ocean models range from a data ocean model with prescribed SSTs, to a slab ocean model that only allows thermodynamic interactions, to a full dynamic ocean model. In a preliminary study, we have conducted single forcing experiments with black carbon aerosols in an atmosphere GCM coupled to a data ocean model and a slab ocean model. We find that while black carbon aerosols can intensify mean and extreme summer monsoonal precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, air-sea coupling can dramatically modulate this response. Black carbon aerosols in the vicinity of the Arabian Sea result in an increase of sea surface temperatures there in the slab ocean model, which intensify the low-level Somali Jet. The associated increase in moisture transport into Western India enhances the mean as well as extreme precipitation. In prescribed SST experiments, where SSTs are not allowed to respond BC aerosols, the response is muted. We will present results from a hierarchy of GCM simulations that investigate the role of air-sea coupling in the climate response to aerosols in more detail.

Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

3D geometry of a plate boundary fault related to the 2016 Off-Mie earthquake in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuji, Takeshi; Minato, Shohei; Kamei, Rie; Tsuru, Tetsuro; Kimura, Gaku

2017-11-01

We used recent seismic data and advanced techniques to investigate 3D fault geometry over the transition from the partially coupled to the fully coupled plate interface inboard of the Nankai Trough off the Kii Peninsula, Japan. We found that a gently dipping plate boundary décollement with a thick underthrust layer extends beneath the entire Kumano forearc basin. The 1 April 2016 Off-Mie earthquake (Mw6.0) and its aftershocks occurred, where the plate boundary décollement steps down close to the oceanic crust surface. This location also lies beneath the trenchward edge of an older accretionary prism (∼14 Ma) developed along the coast of the Kii peninsula. The strike of the 2016 rupture plane was similar to that of a formerly active splay fault system in the accretionary prism. Thus, the fault planes of the 2016 earthquake and its aftershocks were influenced by the geometry of the plate interface as well as splay faulting. The 2016 earthquake occurred within the rupture area of large interplate earthquakes such as the 1944 Tonankai earthquake (Mw8.1), although the 2016 rupture area was much smaller than that of the 1944 event. Whereas the hypocenter of the 2016 earthquake was around the underplating sequence beneath the younger accretionary prism (∼6 Ma), the 1944 great earthquake hypocenter was close to oceanic crust surface beneath the older accretionary prism. The variation of fault geometry and lithology may influence the degree of coupling along the plate interface, and such coupling variation could hinder slip propagation toward the deeper plate interface in the 2016 event.

Coupled Data Assimilation in Navy ESPC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barron, C. N.; Spence, P. L.; Frolov, S.; Rowley, C. D.; Bishop, C. H.; Wei, M.; Ruston, B.; Smedstad, O. M.

2017-12-01

Data assimilation under global coupled Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) presents significantly greater challenges than data assimilation in forecast models of a single earth system like the ocean and atmosphere. In forecasts of a single component, data assimilation has broad flexibility in adjusting boundary conditions to reduce forecast errors; coupled ESPC requires consistent simultaneous adjustment of multiple components within the earth system: air, ocean, ice, and others. Data assimilation uses error covariances to express how to consistently adjust model conditions in response to differences between forecasts and observations; in coupled ESPC, these covariances must extend from air to ice to ocean such that changes within one fluid are appropriately balanced with corresponding adjustments in the other components. We show several algorithmic solutions that allow us to resolve these challenges. Specifically, we introduce the interface solver method that augments existing stand-alone systems for ocean and atmosphere by allowing them to be influenced by relevant measurements from the coupled fluid. Plans are outlined for implementing coupled data assimilation within ESPC for the Navy's global coupled model. Preliminary results show the impact of assimilating SST-sensitive radiances in the atmospheric model and first results of hybrid DA in a 1/12 degree model of the global ocean.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-01

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures.

PubMed

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO's cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: the skill-persistence rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Y.; Rong, X.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the factors that impact the forecast skill for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill of sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further examined using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but can be distorted by the sampling error and non-AR1 processes.

Mechanisms of interannual- to decadal-scale winter Labrador Sea ice variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Close, S.; Herbaut, C.; Houssais, M.-N.; Blaizot, A.-C.

2017-12-01

The variability of the winter sea ice cover of the Labrador Sea region and its links to atmospheric and oceanic forcing are investigated using observational data, a coupled ocean-sea ice model and a fully-coupled model simulation drawn from the CMIP5 archive. A consistent series of mechanisms associated with high sea ice cover are found amongst the various data sets. The highest values of sea ice area occur when the northern Labrador Sea is ice covered. This region is found to be primarily thermodynamically forced, contrasting with the dominance of mechanical forcing along the eastern coast of Baffin Island and Labrador, and the growth of sea ice is associated with anomalously fresh local ocean surface conditions. Positive fresh water anomalies are found to propagate to the region from a source area off the southeast Greenland coast with a 1 month transit time. These anomalies are associated with sea ice melt, driven by the enhanced offshore transport of sea ice in the source region, and its subsequent westward transport in the Irminger Current system. By combining sea ice transport through the Denmark Strait in the preceding autumn with the Greenland Blocking Index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, strong correlation with the Labrador Sea ice area of the following winter is obtained. This relationship represents a dependence on the availability of sea ice to be melted in the source region, the necessary atmospheric forcing to transport this offshore, and a further multidecadal-scale link with the large-scale sea surface temperature conditions.

Effects of Precipitation on Ocean Mixed-Layer Temperature and Salinity as Simulated in a 2-D Coupled Ocean-Cloud Resolving Atmosphere Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Xiaofan; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K-M.; Adamec, D.

1999-01-01

A two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model is used to investigate possible roles of convective scale ocean disturbances induced by atmospheric precipitation on ocean mixed-layer heat and salt budgets. The model couples a cloud resolving model with an embedded mixed layer-ocean circulation model. Five experiment are performed under imposed large-scale atmospheric forcing in terms of vertical velocity derived from the TOGA COARE observations during a selected seven-day period. The dominant variability of mixed-layer temperature and salinity are simulated by the coupled model with imposed large-scale forcing. The mixed-layer temperatures in the coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models show similar variations when salinity effects are not included. When salinity effects are included, however, differences in the domain-mean mixed-layer salinity and temperature between coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models could be as large as 0.3 PSU and 0.4 C respectively. Without fresh water effects, the nocturnal heat loss over ocean surface causes deep mixed layers and weak cooling rates so that the nocturnal mixed-layer temperatures tend to be horizontally-uniform. The fresh water flux, however, causes shallow mixed layers over convective areas while the nocturnal heat loss causes deep mixed layer over convection-free areas so that the mixed-layer temperatures have large horizontal fluctuations. Furthermore, fresh water flux exhibits larger spatial fluctuations than surface heat flux because heavy rainfall occurs over convective areas embedded in broad non-convective or clear areas, whereas diurnal signals over whole model areas yield high spatial correlation of surface heat flux. As a result, mixed-layer salinities contribute more to the density differences than do mixed-layer temperatures.

Will high-resolution global ocean models benefit coupled predictions on short-range to climate timescales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitt, Helene T.; Bell, Michael J.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Czaja, Arnaud; Ferreira, David; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hyder, Pat; McClean, Julie L.; New, Adrian L.; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2017-12-01

As the importance of the ocean in the weather and climate system is increasingly recognised, operational systems are now moving towards coupled prediction not only for seasonal to climate timescales but also for short-range forecasts. A three-way tension exists between the allocation of computing resources to refine model resolution, the expansion of model complexity/capability, and the increase of ensemble size. Here we review evidence for the benefits of increased ocean resolution in global coupled models, where the ocean component explicitly represents transient mesoscale eddies and narrow boundary currents. We consider lessons learned from forced ocean/sea-ice simulations; from studies concerning the SST resolution required to impact atmospheric simulations; and from coupled predictions. Impacts of the mesoscale ocean in western boundary current regions on the large-scale atmospheric state have been identified. Understanding of air-sea feedback in western boundary currents is modifying our view of the dynamics in these key regions. It remains unclear whether variability associated with open ocean mesoscale eddies is equally important to the large-scale atmospheric state. We include a discussion of what processes can presently be parameterised in coupled models with coarse resolution non-eddying ocean models, and where parameterizations may fall short. We discuss the benefits of resolution and identify gaps in the current literature that leave important questions unanswered.

Scaling properties of Arctic sea ice deformation in high-resolution viscous-plastic sea ice models and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2017-04-01

Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very high grid resolution can resolve leads and deformation rates that are localised along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1-km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small scale sea-ice deformations in the Central Arctic are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS). A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids determines the spatial and the temporal scaling as well as the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modelled sea ice deformation implies multi-fractality. The spatial scaling is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling and its coupling to temporal scales with satellite observations and models with the modern elasto-brittle rheology challenges previous results with VP models at coarse resolution where no such scaling was found. The temporal scaling analysis, however, shows that the VP model does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

Effects of Wind and Freshwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Role of Sea Ice and Vertical Diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kun; Yang, Haijun; Dai, Haijin; Wang, Yuxing; Li, Qing

2015-04-01

Effects of wind and fresh water on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated in a fully coupled climate model (CESM1.0). The AMOC can change significantly when perturbing either the wind stress or fresh water flux in the northern North Atlantic. This work pays special attention on the wind stress effect. Our model results show that the wind forcing is a crucial element in maintaining the AMOC. When the wind-stress is reduced, the vertical convection and diffusion are weakened immediately, triggering a salt deficit in the northern North Atlantic that prevents the deep water formation there. The salinity advection from the south, however, plays a contrary role to salt the upper ocean. As the AMOC weakens, the sea ice expends southward and melts, freshening the upper ocean that weakens the AMOC further. There is a positive feedback between the sea ice melting and AMOC strength, which eventually determines the AMOC strength in the reduced wind world.

Coupled assimilation for an intermediated coupled ENSO prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2010-10-01

The value of coupled assimilation is discussed using an intermediate coupled model in which the wind stress is the only atmospheric state which is slavery to model sea surface temperature (SST). In the coupled assimilation analysis, based on the coupled wind-ocean state covariance calculated from the coupled state ensemble, the ocean state is adjusted by assimilating wind data using the ensemble Kalman filter. As revealed by a series of assimilation experiments using simulated observations, the coupled assimilation of wind observations yields better results than the assimilation of SST observations. Specifically, the coupled assimilation of wind observations can help to improve the accuracy of the surface and subsurface currents because the correlation between the wind and ocean currents is stronger than that between SST and ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the coupled assimilation of wind data can decrease the initial condition errors in the surface/subsurface currents that can significantly contribute to SST forecast errors. The value of the coupled assimilation of wind observations is further demonstrated by comparing the prediction skills of three 12-year (1997-2008) hindcast experiments initialized by the ocean-only assimilation scheme that assimilates SST observations, the coupled assimilation scheme that assimilates wind observations, and a nudging scheme that nudges the observed wind stress data, respectively. The prediction skills of two assimilation schemes are significantly better than those of the nudging scheme. The prediction skills of assimilating wind observations are better than assimilating SST observations. Assimilating wind observations for the 2007/2008 La Niña event triggers better predictions, while assimilating SST observations fails to provide an early warning for that event.

Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High‐Resolution Viscous‐Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations

PubMed Central

Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2018-01-01

Abstract Sea ice models with the traditional viscous‐plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan‐Arctic sea ice‐ocean simulation, the small‐scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data. PMID:29576996

Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High-Resolution Viscous-Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2018-01-01

Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small-scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High-Resolution Viscous-Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations.

PubMed

Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

2018-01-01

Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small-scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

Evaluation of Model Performance over the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, C. A.; Barton, N. P.; Chen, S.; Flatau, M. K.; Ridout, J. A.; Janiga, M.; Jensen, T.; Richman, J. G.; Metzger, E. J.; Baranowski, D.

2017-12-01

The introduction of high-resolution global coupled models holds promise for extended-range (subseasonal to seasonal) prediction of high-impact weather. While forecast models have shown considerable improvement in the prediction of tropical phenomena on these timescales, specifically in the simulation and prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), obstacles remain. In particular, many models still have difficulty accurately simulating the propagation of the MJO over the maritime continent. This has been hypothesized, at least in part, to be related to deficiencies in simulating the diurnal cycle over this region, which in turn is dependent on accurate representation of fine-scale atmosphere-ocean-land interactions, orography, and atmospheric convection. These issues have motivated the international Year of Maritime Continent (YMC) effort and the Office of Naval Research Propagation of Intra-Seasonal Tropical Oscillations (PISTON) initiative. In preparation for YMC and PISTON, we closely evaluate the performance of the Navy Earth System Model (NESM), a coupled global forecast model, in representing the diurnal cycle and other prominent phenomena in the maritime continent region. NESM performance is compared with stand-alone atmospheric simulations with prescribed fixed and analyzed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Initial results from the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation field phase (Fall 2011) period indicate that NESM is able to capture the precipitation day-time maximum over land and night-time maximum over ocean, but day-time precipitation over Borneo, Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula is too strong as compared to TRMM observations. The simulation of low-level winds qualitatively captures sea and land breeze patterns as compared with ERA-Interim analysis, with quantitative biases varying by island. The fully-coupled system and the stand-alone atmospheric model simulations are more similar to each other than to the observations, indicating that active ocean coupling is not the most prominent issue contributing to biases in these simulations. The performance of NESM will be more thoroughly evaluated and compared to other forecast systems using the 45-day forecasts currently being produced four times per week for the 1999-2015 time period under the NOAA SubX project.

IPSL-CM5A2. An Earth System Model designed to run long simulations for past and future climates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulchre, Pierre; Caubel, Arnaud; Marti, Olivier; Hourdin, Frédéric; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Boucher, Olivier

2017-04-01

The IPSL-CM5A model was developed and released in 2013 "to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)" [Dufresne et al., 2013]. Although this model also has been used for numerous paleoclimate studies, a major limitation was its computation time, which averaged 10 model-years / day on 32 cores of the Curie supercomputer (on TGCC computing center, France). Such performances were compatible with the experimental designs of intercomparison projects (e.g. CMIP, PMIP) but became limiting for modelling activities involving several multi-millenial experiments, which are typical for Quaternary or "deeptime" paleoclimate studies, in which a fully-equilibrated deep-ocean is mandatory. Here we present the Earth-System model IPSL-CM5A2. Based on IPSL-CM5A, technical developments have been performed both on separate components and on the coupling system in order to speed up the whole coupled model. These developments include the integration of hybrid parallelization MPI-OpenMP in LMDz atmospheric component, the use of a new input-ouput library to perform parallel asynchronous input/output by using computing cores as "IO servers", the use of a parallel coupling library between the ocean and the atmospheric components. Running on 304 cores, the model can now simulate 55 years per day, opening new gates towards multi-millenial simulations. Apart from obtaining better computing performances, one aim of setting up IPSL-CM5A2 was also to overcome the cold bias depicted in global surface air temperature (t2m) in IPSL-CM5A. We present the tuning strategy to overcome this bias as well as the main characteristics (including biases) of the pre-industrial climate simulated by IPSL-CM5A2. Lastly, we shortly present paleoclimate simulations run with this model, for the Holocene and for deeper timescales in the Cenozoic, for which the particular continental configuration was overcome by a new design of the ocean tripolar grid.

Reduced-Order Biogeochemical Flux Model for High-Resolution Multi-Scale Biophysical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Katherine; Hamlington, Peter; Pinardi, Nadia; Zavatarelli, Marco

2017-04-01

Biogeochemical tracers and their interactions with upper ocean physical processes such as submesoscale circulations and small-scale turbulence are critical for understanding the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle. These interactions can cause small-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity in tracer distributions that can, in turn, greatly affect carbon exchange rates between the atmosphere and interior ocean. For this reason, it is important to take into account small-scale biophysical interactions when modeling the global carbon cycle. However, explicitly resolving these interactions in an earth system model (ESM) is currently infeasible due to the enormous associated computational cost. As a result, understanding and subsequently parameterizing how these small-scale heterogeneous distributions develop and how they relate to larger resolved scales is critical for obtaining improved predictions of carbon exchange rates in ESMs. In order to address this need, we have developed the reduced-order, 17 state variable Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM-17) that follows the chemical functional group approach, which allows for non-Redfield stoichiometric ratios and the exchange of matter through units of carbon, nitrate, and phosphate. This model captures the behavior of open-ocean biogeochemical systems without substantially increasing computational cost, thus allowing the model to be combined with computationally-intensive, fully three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic large eddy simulations (LES). In this talk, we couple BFM-17 with the Princeton Ocean Model and show good agreement between predicted monthly-averaged results and Bermuda testbed area field data (including the Bermuda-Atlantic Time-series Study and Bermuda Testbed Mooring). Through these tests, we demonstrate the capability of BFM-17 to accurately model open-ocean biochemistry. Additionally, we discuss the use of BFM-17 within a multi-scale LES framework and outline how this will further our understanding of turbulent biophysical interactions in the upper ocean.

Reduced-Order Biogeochemical Flux Model for High-Resolution Multi-Scale Biophysical Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K.; Hamlington, P.; Pinardi, N.; Zavatarelli, M.; Milliff, R. F.

2016-12-01

Biogeochemical tracers and their interactions with upper ocean physical processes such as submesoscale circulations and small-scale turbulence are critical for understanding the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle. These interactions can cause small-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity in tracer distributions which can, in turn, greatly affect carbon exchange rates between the atmosphere and interior ocean. For this reason, it is important to take into account small-scale biophysical interactions when modeling the global carbon cycle. However, explicitly resolving these interactions in an earth system model (ESM) is currently infeasible due to the enormous associated computational cost. As a result, understanding and subsequently parametrizing how these small-scale heterogeneous distributions develop and how they relate to larger resolved scales is critical for obtaining improved predictions of carbon exchange rates in ESMs. In order to address this need, we have developed the reduced-order, 17 state variable Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM-17). This model captures the behavior of open-ocean biogeochemical systems without substantially increasing computational cost, thus allowing the model to be combined with computationally-intensive, fully three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic large eddy simulations (LES). In this talk, we couple BFM-17 with the Princeton Ocean Model and show good agreement between predicted monthly-averaged results and Bermuda testbed area field data (including the Bermuda-Atlantic Time Series and Bermuda Testbed Mooring). Through these tests, we demonstrate the capability of BFM-17 to accurately model open-ocean biochemistry. Additionally, we discuss the use of BFM-17 within a multi-scale LES framework and outline how this will further our understanding of turbulent biophysical interactions in the upper ocean.

Does air-sea coupling influence model projections of the effects of the Paris Agreement?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingaman, Nicholas; Suckling, Emma; Sutton, Rowan; Dong, Buwen

2017-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement includes the long-term goal to hold global-mean temperature to "well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels", with the further stated aim of limiting the global-mean warming to 1.5°C, in the belief that this would "significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change". However, it is not clear which risks and impacts would be avoided, or reduced, by achieving a 1.5°C warming instead of a 2.0°C warming. Initial efforts to quantify changes in risk have focused on analysis of existing CMIP5 simulations at levels of global-mean warming close to 1.5°C or 2.0°C, by taking averages over ≈20 year periods. This framework suffers from several drawbacks, however, including the effect of model internal multi-decadal variability, the influence of coupled-model systematic errors on regional circulation patterns, and the presence of a warming trend across the averaging period (i.e., the model is not in steady state). To address these issues, the "Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts" (HAPPI) project is performing large ensembles of atmosphere-only experiments with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for present-day and 1.5°C and 2.0°C scenarios. While these experiments reduce the complications from a limited dataset and coupled-model systematic errors, the use of atmosphere-only models neglects feedbacks between the atmosphere and ocean, which may have substantial effects on the representation of local and regional extremes, and hence on the response of these extremes to global-mean warming. We introduce a set of atmosphere-ocean coupled simulations that incorporate much of the HAPPI experiment design, yet retain a representation of air-sea feedbacks. We use the Met Office Unified Model Global Ocean Mixed Layer (MetUM-GOML) model, which comprises the MetUM atmospheric model coupled to many columns of the one-dimensional K Profile Parameterization mixed-layer ocean. Critically, the MetUM-GOML ocean mean state can be controlled by prescribed, seasonally varying corrections to temperature and salinity, which substantially reduce SST biases without damping variability. This allows the present-day MetUM-GOML experiment to have a ocean mean state very close to the observed climatology (global RMSE ≈ 0.25°C). We perform three 150-year experiments with MetUM-GOML for (a) present-day (1976-2005 climatology) and for future scenarios with global-mean temperatures (b) 1.5°C and (c) 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels. For (b) and (c), we achieve these warming levels by increasing the CO2 concentrations in MetUM-GOML, as well as by adjusting the prescribed sea ice using change factors derived from a transient simulation with the fully coupled Met Office model. We analyse projected global and regional changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation in our MetUM-GOML simulations, focusing on seasonal means, multi-annual persistence of seasonal extremes (e.g., the probability of consecutive wet summers) and intra-seasonal extremes (e.g., heatwaves, droughts, floods). To identify the influence of air-sea coupling on these projections, we compare the MetUM-GOML simulations to 150-year atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed daily SSTs from the corresponding MetUM-GOML runs. This comparison demonstrates whether atmosphere-ocean feedbacks influence the projections of changes hydro-meteorological extremes in a warmer world, as well as whether these feedbacks affect the assessment of the impacts avoided by limiting global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C. Our results will inform the choice of model framework for, and hence the experiment design of, further efforts to characterise the response to a fixed global-mean temperature increase, as well as future climate-change attribution experiments.

Eddies in the Southern Ocean

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-04-08

The cloud cover over the Southern Ocean occasionally parts as it did on January 1, 2015 just west of the Drake Passage where the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi NPP satellite glimpsed the above collection of ocean-color delineated eddies which have diameters ranging from a couple of kilometers to a couple of hundred kilometers. Recent studies indicate that eddy activity has been increasing in the Southern Ocean with possible implications for climate change. Credit: NASA's OceanColor/Suomi NPP/VIIRS

The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

2010-01-01

The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

Upper oceanic response to tropical cyclone Phailin in the Bay of Bengal using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, Kumar Ravi; Pant, Vimlesh

2017-01-01

A numerical simulation of very severe cyclonic storm `Phailin', which originated in southeastern Bay of Bengal (BoB) and propagated northwestward during 10-15 October 2013, was carried out using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. A Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) was used to make exchanges of fluxes consistent between the atmospheric model `Weather Research and Forecasting' (WRF) and ocean circulation model `Regional Ocean Modelling System' (ROMS) components of the `Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport' (COAWST) modelling system. The track and intensity of tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin simulated by the WRF component of the coupled model agrees well with the best-track estimates reported by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Ocean model component (ROMS) was configured over the BoB domain; it utilized the wind stress and net surface heat fluxes from the WRF model to investigate upper oceanic response to the passage of TC Phailin. The coupled model shows pronounced sea surface cooling (2-2.5 °C) and an increase in sea surface salinity (SSS) (2-3 psu) after 06 GMT on 12 October 2013 over the northwestern BoB. Signature of this surface cooling was also observed in satellite data and buoy measurements. The oceanic mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals relative roles of different oceanic processes in controlling the mixed layer temperature over the region of observed cooling. The heat budget highlighted major contributions from horizontal advection and vertical entrainment processes in governing the mixed layer cooling (up to -0.1 °C h-1) and, thereby, reduction in sea surface temperature (SST) in the northwestern BoB during 11-12 October 2013. During the post-cyclone period, the net heat flux at surface regained its diurnal variations with a noontime peak that provided a warming tendency up to 0.05 °C h-1 in the mixed layer. Clear signatures of TC-induced upwelling are seen in vertical velocity (about 2.5 × 10-3 m s-1), rise in isotherms and isohalines along 85-88° E longitudes in the northwestern BoB. The study demonstrates that a coupled atmosphere-ocean model (WRF + ROMS) serves as a useful tool to investigate oceanic response to the passage of cyclones.

Land-Ocean-Atmospheric Coupling Associated with Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, A. K.; Singh, R. P.; Kumar, S.; Cervone, G.; Kafatos, M.; Zlotnicki, J.

2007-12-01

Earthquakes are well known to occur along the plate boundaries and also on the stable shield. The recent studies have shown existence of strong coupling between land-ocean-atmospheric parameters associated with the earthquakes. We have carried out detailed analysis of multi sensor data (optical and microwave remote) to show existence of strong coupling between land-ocean-atmospheric parameters associated with the earthquakes with focal depth up to 30 km and magnitude greater than 5.5. Complimentary nature of various land, ocean and atmospheric parameters will be demonstrated in getting an early warning information about an impending earthquake.

Intraseasonal and interannual oscillations in coupled ocean-atmosphere models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirst, Anthony C.; Lau, K.-M.

1990-01-01

An investigation is presented of coupled ocean-atmosphere models' behavior in an environment where atmospheric wave speeds are substantially reduced from dry atmospheric values by such processes as condensation-moisture convergence. Modes are calculated for zonally periodic, unbounded ocean-atmosphere systems, emphasizing the importance of an inclusion of prognostic atmosphere equations in simple coupled ocean-atmosphere models with a view to simulations of intraseasonal variability and its possible interaction with interannual variability. The dynamics of low and high frequency modes are compared; both classes are sensitive to the degree to which surface wind anomalies are able to affect the evaporation rate.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Robinson, M. M.; Stoll, D. K.; Dolan, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.

2011-01-01

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Stoll, D.K.; Dolan, A.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M.A.

2011-01-01

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere-only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilises fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Geoengineering by cloud seeding: influence on sea ice and climate system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasch, Philip J.; Latham, John; Chen, Chih-Chieh

2009-12-18

GCM computations using a fully coupled ocean atmosphere model indicate that increasing cloud reflectivity by seeding maritime boundary layer clouds with particles made from seawater may compensate for some of the effects on climate of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The chosen seeding strategy (one of many possible scenarios) can restore global averages of temperature, precipitation and sea ice to present day values, but not simultaneously. The response varies nonlinearly with extent of the seeding, and geoengineering generates local changes to important climatic features. The global tradeoffs of restoring ice cover and cooling the planet must be assessed alongside the localmore » changes to climate features.« less

Large-scale stress factors affecting coral reefs: open ocean sea surface temperature and surface seawater aragonite saturation over the next 400 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meissner, K. J.; Lippmann, T.; Sen Gupta, A.

2012-06-01

One-third of the world's coral reefs have disappeared over the last 30 years, and a further third is under threat today from various stress factors. The main global stress factors on coral reefs have been identified as changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation (Ωarag). Here, we use a climate model of intermediate complexity, which includes an ocean general circulation model and a fully coupled carbon cycle, in conjunction with present-day observations of inter-annual SST variability to investigate three IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCP 3PD, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5), and their impact on the environmental stressors of coral reefs related to open ocean SST and open ocean Ωarag over the next 400 years. Our simulations show that for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the threshold of 3.3 for zonal and annual mean Ωarag would be crossed in the first half of this century. By year 2030, 66-85% of the reef locations considered in this study would experience severe bleaching events at least once every 10 years. Regardless of the concentration pathway, virtually every reef considered in this study (>97%) would experience severe thermal stress by year 2050. In all our simulations, changes in surface seawater aragonite saturation lead changes in temperatures.

Simulation of seasonal anomalies of atmospheric circulation using coupled atmosphere-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolstykh, M. A.; Diansky, N. A.; Gusev, A. V.; Kiktev, D. B.

2014-03-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model intended for the simulation of coupled circulation at time scales up to a season is developed. The semi-Lagrangian atmospheric general circulation model of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, SLAV, is coupled with the sigma model of ocean general circulation developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), INMOM. Using this coupled model, numerical experiments on ensemble modeling of the atmosphere and ocean circulation for up to 4 months are carried out using real initial data for all seasons of an annual cycle in 1989-2010. Results of these experiments are compared to the results of the SLAV model with the simple evolution of the sea surface temperature. A comparative analysis of seasonally averaged anomalies of atmospheric circulation shows prospects in applying the coupled model for forecasts. It is shown with the example of the El Niño phenomenon of 1997-1998 that the coupled model forecasts the seasonally averaged anomalies for the period of the nonstationary El Niño phase significantly better.

The role of satellite directional wave spectra for the improvement of the ocean-waves coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aouf, Lotfi; Hauser, Danièle; Chapron, Bertrand

2017-04-01

Swell waves are well captured by the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) which provides the directional wave spectra for waves roughly larger than 200 m. Since the launch of sentinel-1A and 1B SAR directional wave spectra are available to improve the swell wave forecasting and the coupling processes at the air-sea interface. Moreover next year CFOSAT mission will provide directional wave spectra for waves with wavelengths comprised between 70 to 500 m. This study aims to evaluate the assimilation of SAR and synthetic CFOSAT wave spectra on the coupling between the wave model MFWAM and the ocean model NEMO. Three coupling processes as described in Breivik et al. (2014) of Stokes-Coriolis forcing, the ocean side stress and the turbulence injected by the wave breaking in the ocean mixed layer have been used. a coupling run is performed with and without assimilation of directional wave spectra. the impact of SAR wave data on key parameters such as surface sea temperature, currents and salinity is investigated. Particular attention is carried out for ocean areas with swell dominant wave climate.

Sensitivity of the tropical climate to an interhemispheric thermal gradient: the role of tropical ocean dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talento, Stefanie; Barreiro, Marcelo

2018-03-01

This study aims to determine the role of the tropical ocean dynamics in the response of the climate to extratropical thermal forcing. We analyse and compare the outcomes of coupling an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with two ocean models of different complexity. In the first configuration the AGCM is coupled with a slab ocean model while in the second a reduced gravity ocean (RGO) model is additionally coupled in the tropical region. We find that the imposition of extratropical thermal forcing (warming in the Northern Hemisphere and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere with zero global mean) produces, in terms of annual means, a weaker response when the RGO is coupled, thus indicating that the tropical ocean dynamics oppose the incoming remote signal. On the other hand, while the slab ocean coupling does not produce significant changes to the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle, the RGO configuration generates strong warming in the central-eastern basin from April to August balanced by cooling during the rest of the year, strengthening the seasonal cycle in the eastern portion of the basin. We hypothesize that such changes are possible via the dynamical effect that zonal wind stress has on the thermocline depth. We also find that the imposed extratropical pattern affects El Niño-Southern Oscillation, weakening its amplitude and low-frequency behaviour.

Impact of the ocean diurnal cycle on the North Atlantic mean sea surface temperatures in a regionally coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guemas, Virginie; Salas-Mélia, David; Kageyama, Masa; Giordani, Hervé; Voldoire, Aurore

2013-03-01

This study investigates the mechanisms by which the ocean diurnal cycle can affect the ocean mean state in the North Atlantic region. We perform two ocean-atmosphere regionally coupled simulations (20°N-80°N, 80°W-40°E) using the CNRMOM1D ocean model coupled to the ARPEGE4 atmospheric model: one with a 1 h coupling frequency (C1h) and another with a 24 h coupling frequency (C24h). The comparison between both experiments shows that accounting for the ocean diurnal cycle tends to warm up the surface ocean at high latitudes and cool it down in the subtropics during the boreal summer season (June-August). In the subtropics, the leading cause for the formation of the negative surface temperature anomalies is the fact that the nocturnal entrainment heat flux overcompensates the diurnal absorption of solar heat flux. Both in the subtropics and in the high latitudes, the surface temperature anomalies are involved in a positive feedback loop: the cold (warm) surface anomalies favour a decrease (increase) in evaporation, a decrease (increase) in tropospheric humidity, a decrease (increase) in downwelling longwave radiative flux which in turn favours the surface cooling (warming). Furthermore, the decrease in meridional sea surface temperature gradient affects the large-scale atmospheric circulation by a decrease in the zonal mean flow.

Modeling High-Resolution Coastal Ocean Dynamics with COAMPS: System Overview, Applications and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allard, R. A.; Campbell, T. J.; Edwards, K. L.; Smith, T.; Martin, P.; Hebert, D. A.; Rogers, W.; Dykes, J. D.; Jacobs, G. A.; Spence, P. L.; Bartels, B.

2014-12-01

The Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) is an atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system developed by the Naval Research Laboratory which can be configured to cycle regional forecasts/analysis models in single-model (atmosphere, ocean, and wave) or coupled-model (atmosphere-ocean, ocean-wave, and atmosphere-ocean-wave) modes. The model coupling is performed using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The ocean component is the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), and the wave components include Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) and WaveWatch-III. NCOM has been modified to include wetting and drying, the effects of Stokes drift current, wave radiation stresses due to horizontal gradients of the momentum flux of surface waves, enhancement of bottom drag in shallow water, and enhanced vertical mixing due to Langmuir turbulence. An overview of the modeling system including ocean data assimilation and specification of boundary conditions will be presented. Results from a high-resolution (10-250m) modeling study from the Surfzone Coastal Oil Pathways Experiment (SCOPE) near Ft. Walton Beach, Florida in December 2013 will be presented. ®COAMPS is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory

Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

1998-01-01

A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization, indicating possible importance for the inclusion of the atmosphere during the coupled initialization.

Ocean Model Impact Study for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting: An HFIP Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H. S. S.; Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Tallapragada, V.; Black, P. G.; Bond, N.; Chen, S.; Cione, J.; Cronin, M. F.; Ginis, I.; Liu, B.; Miller, L.; Jayne, S. R.; Sanabia, E.; Shay, L. K.; Uhlhorn, E.; Zhu, L.

2016-02-01

Established in 2009, the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) is a ten-year project to promote accelerated improvements hurricane track and intensity forecasts (Gall et al. 2013). The Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team (OMITT) consisting of model developers and research scientists was formed as one of HFIP working groups in December 2014, to evaluate the impact of ocean coupling in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts. The team investigated the ocean model impact in real cases for Category 3 Hurricane Edouard in 2014, using simulations and observations that were collected for different stages of the hurricane. Two Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes in 2015, Blanca and Dolores, are also of special interest. These two powerful Category 4 storms followed a similar track, however, they produced dramatically different ocean cooling, about 7.2oC for Hurricane Blanca but only about 2.7oC for Hurricane Dolores, and the corresponding intensity changes were negative 40 ms-1 and 20 ms-1, respectively. Two versions of operational HWRF and COAMPS-TC coupled prediction systems are employed in the study. These systems are configured to have 1D and 3D ocean dynamics coupled to the atmosphere. The ocean components are initialized separately with climatology, analysis and nowcast products to evaluate the impact of ocean initialization on hurricane forecasts. Real storm forecast experiments are being designed and performed with different levels of the ocean model complexity and various model configurations to study model sensitivity. In this talk, we report the OMITT activities conducted during the past year, present preliminary results of on-going investigation of air-sea interactions in the simulations, and discuss future plans toward improving coupled TC predictions. Gall, R., J. Franklin, F. Marks, E.N. Rappaport, and F. Toepfer, 2013: THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 329-343.

Oxygen Sensitivity of Anammox and Coupled N-Cycle Processes in Oxygen Minimum Zones

PubMed Central

Kalvelage, Tim; Jensen, Marlene M.; Contreras, Sergio; Revsbech, Niels Peter; Lam, Phyllis; Günter, Marcel; LaRoche, Julie; Lavik, Gaute; Kuypers, Marcel M. M.

2011-01-01

Nutrient measurements indicate that 30–50% of the total nitrogen (N) loss in the ocean occurs in oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). This pelagic N-removal takes place within only ∼0.1% of the ocean volume, hence moderate variations in the extent of OMZs due to global warming may have a large impact on the global N-cycle. We examined the effect of oxygen (O2) on anammox, NH3 oxidation and NO3 − reduction in 15N-labeling experiments with varying O2 concentrations (0–25 µmol L−1) in the Namibian and Peruvian OMZs. Our results show that O2 is a major controlling factor for anammox activity in OMZ waters. Based on our O2 assays we estimate the upper limit for anammox to be ∼20 µmol L−1. In contrast, NH3 oxidation to NO2 − and NO3 − reduction to NO2 − as the main NH4 + and NO2 − sources for anammox were only moderately affected by changing O2 concentrations. Intriguingly, aerobic NH3 oxidation was active at non-detectable concentrations of O2, while anaerobic NO3 − reduction was fully active up to at least 25 µmol L−1 O2. Hence, aerobic and anaerobic N-cycle pathways in OMZs can co-occur over a larger range of O2 concentrations than previously assumed. The zone where N-loss can occur is primarily controlled by the O2-sensitivity of anammox itself, and not by any effects of O2 on the tightly coupled pathways of aerobic NH3 oxidation and NO3 − reduction. With anammox bacteria in the marine environment being active at O2 levels ∼20 times higher than those known to inhibit their cultured counterparts, the oceanic volume potentially acting as a N-sink increases tenfold. The predicted expansion of OMZs may enlarge this volume even further. Our study provides the first robust estimates of O2 sensitivities for processes directly and indirectly connected with N-loss. These are essential to assess the effects of ocean de-oxygenation on oceanic N-cycling. PMID:22216239

The Role of Ocean and Atmospheric Heat Transport in the Arctic Amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas Martes, R. M.; Kwon, Y. O.; Furey, H. H.

2017-12-01

Observational data and climate model projections have suggested that the Arctic region is warming around twice faster than the rest of the globe, which has been referred as the Arctic Amplification (AA). While the local feedbacks, e.g. sea ice-albedo feedback, are often suggested as the primary driver of AA by previous studies, the role of meridional heat transport by ocean and atmosphere is less clear. This study uses the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble simulation (CESM1-LE) to seek deeper understanding of the role meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat transports play in AA. The simulation consists of 40 ensemble members with the same physics and external forcing using a single fully coupled climate model. Each ensemble member spans two time periods; the historical period from 1920 to 2005 using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical forcing and the future period from 2006 to 2100 using the CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Each of the ensemble members are initialized with slightly different air temperatures. As the CESM1-LE uses a single model unlike the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the internal variability and the externally forced components can be separated more clearly. The projections are calculated by comparing the period 2081-2100 relative to the time period 2001-2020. The CESM1-LE projects an AA of 2.5-2.8 times faster than the global average, which is within the range of those from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. However, the spread of AA from the CESM1-LE, which is attributed to the internal variability, is 2-3 times smaller than that of the CMIP5 ensemble, which may also include the inter-model differences. CESM1LE projects a decrease in the atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic and an increase in the oceanic heat transport. The atmospheric heat transport is further decomposed into moisture transport and dry static energy transport. Also, the oceanic heat transport is decomposed into the Pacific and Atlantic contributions.

Oceanic response to tropical cyclone `Phailin' in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pant, V.; Prakash, K. R.

2016-02-01

Vertical mixing largely explains surface cooling induced by Tropical Cyclones (TCs). However, TC-induced upwelling of deeper waters plays an important role as it partly balances the warming of subsurface waters induced by vertical mixing. Below 100 m, vertical advection results in cooling that persists for a few days after the storm. The present study investigates the integrated ocean response to tropical cyclone `Phaillin' (10-14 October 2013) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) through both coupled and stand-alone ocean-atmosphere models. Two numerical experiments with different coupling configurations between Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) were performed to investigate the impact of Phailin cyclone on the surface and sub-surface oceanic parameters. In the first experiment, ocean circulation model ROMS observe surface wind forcing from a mesoscale atmospheric model (WRF with nested damin setup), while rest forcing parameters are supplied to ROMS from NCEP data. In the second experiment, all surface forcing data to ROMS directly comes from WRF. The modeling components and data fields exchanged between atmospheric and oceanic models are described. The coupled modeling system is used to identify model sensitivity by exchanging prognostic variable fields between the two model components during simulation of Phallin cyclone (10-14 October 2013) in the BoB.In general, the simulated Phailin cyclone track and intensities agree well with observations in WRF simulations. Further, the inter-comparison between stand-alone and coupled model simulations validated against observations highlights better performance of coupled modeling system in simulating the oceanic conditions during the Phailin cyclone event.

Influence of dimethyl sulfide on the carbon cycle and biological production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Shanlin; Maltrud, Mathew; Elliott, Scott

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a significant source of marine sulfate aerosol and plays an important role in modifying cloud properties. Fully coupled climate simulations using dynamic marine ecosystem and DMS calculations are conducted to estimate DMS fluxes under various climate scenarios and to examine the sign and strength of phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedbacks for the first time. Simulation results show small differences in the DMS production and emissions between pre-industrial and present climate scenarios, except for some areas in the Southern Ocean. There are clear changes in surface ocean DMS concentrations moving into the future, and they are attributable to changes inmore » phytoplankton production and competition driven by complex spatially varying mechanisms. Comparisons between parallel simulations with and without DMS fluxes into the atmosphere show significant differences in marine ecosystems and physical fields. Without DMS, the missing subsequent aerosol indirect effects on clouds and radiative forcing lead to fewer clouds, more solar radiation, and a much warmer climate. Phaeocystis, a uniquely efficient organosulfur producer with a growth advantage under cooler climate states, can benefit from producing the compound through cooling effects of DMS in the climate system. Our results show a tight coupling between the sulfur and carbon cycles. The ocean carbon uptake declines without DMS emissions to the atmosphere. The analysis indicates a weak positive phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedback at the global scale, with large spatial variations driven by individual autotrophic functional groups and complex mechanisms. The sign and strength of the feedback vary with climate states and phytoplankton groups. This highlights the importance of a dynamic marine ecosystem module and the sulfur cycle mechanism in climate projections.« less

Influence of dimethyl sulfide on the carbon cycle and biological production

DOE PAGES

Wang, Shanlin; Maltrud, Mathew; Elliott, Scott; ...

2018-02-27

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a significant source of marine sulfate aerosol and plays an important role in modifying cloud properties. Fully coupled climate simulations using dynamic marine ecosystem and DMS calculations are conducted to estimate DMS fluxes under various climate scenarios and to examine the sign and strength of phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedbacks for the first time. Simulation results show small differences in the DMS production and emissions between pre-industrial and present climate scenarios, except for some areas in the Southern Ocean. There are clear changes in surface ocean DMS concentrations moving into the future, and they are attributable to changes inmore » phytoplankton production and competition driven by complex spatially varying mechanisms. Comparisons between parallel simulations with and without DMS fluxes into the atmosphere show significant differences in marine ecosystems and physical fields. Without DMS, the missing subsequent aerosol indirect effects on clouds and radiative forcing lead to fewer clouds, more solar radiation, and a much warmer climate. Phaeocystis, a uniquely efficient organosulfur producer with a growth advantage under cooler climate states, can benefit from producing the compound through cooling effects of DMS in the climate system. Our results show a tight coupling between the sulfur and carbon cycles. The ocean carbon uptake declines without DMS emissions to the atmosphere. The analysis indicates a weak positive phytoplankton-DMS-climate feedback at the global scale, with large spatial variations driven by individual autotrophic functional groups and complex mechanisms. The sign and strength of the feedback vary with climate states and phytoplankton groups. This highlights the importance of a dynamic marine ecosystem module and the sulfur cycle mechanism in climate projections.« less

Rapid ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turney, Christian; Jones, Richard; Phipps, Steven; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, Peter; Fogwill, Christopher; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad; Staff, Richard; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas; Rasmussen, Sune; Hutchinson, David; Haberle, Simon; Lorrey, Andrew; Boswijk, Gretel

2017-04-01

Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperature trends during the late last glacial period (60,000 to 11,703 years ago) are thought to be driven by imbalances in the rate of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'), with cooling in the north leading the onset of warming in the south. Some events, however, appear to have occurred independently of changes in deep water formation but still have a southern expression, implying that an alternative mechanism may have driven some global climatic changes during the glacial. Testing these competing hypotheses is challenging given the relatively large uncertainties associated with correlating terrestrial, marine and ice core records of abrupt change. Here we exploit a bidecadally-resolved 14C calibration dataset obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate datasets spanning 28,400 to 30,400 years ago. We observe no divergence between terrestrial and marine 14C datasets implying limited impact of freshwater hosing on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, an ice-rafted debris event (SA2) in Southern Ocean waters appears to be associated with dramatic synchronous warming over the North Atlantic and contrasting precipitation patterns across the low latitudes. Using a fully coupled climate system model we undertook an ensemble of transient meltwater simulations and find that a southern salinity anomaly can trigger low-latitude temperature changes through barotropic and baroclinic oceanic waves that are atmospherically propagated globally via a Rossby wave train, consistent with contemporary modelling studies. Our results suggest the Antarctic ice sheets and Southern Ocean dynamics may have contributed to some global climatic changes through rapid ocean-atmospheric teleconnections, with implications for past (and future) change.

Eocene climate and Arctic paleobathymetry: A tectonic sensitivity study using GISS ModelE-R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, C. D.; Legrande, A. N.; Tripati, A. K.

2009-12-01

The early Paleogene (65-45 million years ago, Ma) was a ‘greenhouse’ interval with global temperatures warmer than any other time in the last 65 Ma. This period was characterized by high levels of CO2, warm high-latitudes, warm surface-and-deep oceans, and an intensified hydrological cycle. Sediments from the Arctic suggest that the Eocene surface Arctic Ocean was warm, brackish, and episodically enabled the freshwater fern Azolla to bloom. The precise mechanisms responsible for the development of these conditions remain uncertain. We present equilibrium climate conditions derived from a fully-coupled, water-isotope enabled, general circulation model (GISS ModelE-R) configured for the early Eocene. We also present model-data comparison plots for key climatic variables (SST and δ18O) and analyses of the leading modes of variability in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Our tectonic sensitivity study indicates that Northern Hemisphere climate would have been very sensitive to the degree of oceanic exchange through the seaways connecting the Arctic to the Atlantic and Tethys. By restricting these seaways, we simulate freshening of the surface Arctic Ocean to ~6 psu and warming of sea-surface temperatures by 2°C in the North Atlantic and 5-10°C in the Labrador Sea. Our results may help explain the occurrence of low-salinity tolerant taxa in the Arctic Ocean during the Eocene and provide a mechanism for enhanced warmth in the north western Atlantic. We also suggest that the formation of a volcanic land-bridge between Greenland and Europe could have caused increased ocean convection and warming of intermediate waters in the Atlantic. If true, this result is consistent with the theory that bathymetry changes may have caused thermal destabilisation of methane clathrates in the Atlantic.

Development and applications of a Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, J. C.; Armstrong, B. N.; He, R.; Zambon, J. B.; Olabarrieta, M.; Voulgaris, G.; Kumar, N.; Haas, K. A.

2012-12-01

Understanding processes responsible for coastal change is important for managing both our natural and economic coastal resources. Coastal processes respond from both local scale and larger regional scale forcings. Understanding these processes can lead to significant insight into how the coastal zone evolves. Storms are one of the primary driving forces causing coastal change from a coupling of wave and wind driven flows. Here we utilize a numerical modeling approach to investigate these dynamics of coastal storm impacts. We use the Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere - Wave - Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System that utilizes the Model Coupling Toolkit to exchange prognostic variables between the ocean model ROMS, atmosphere model WRF, wave model SWAN, and the Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (CSTMS) sediment routines. The models exchange fields of sea-surface temperature, ocean currents, water levels, bathymetry, wave heights, lengths, periods, bottom orbital velocities, and atmospheric surface heat and momentum fluxes, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, and evaporation. Data fields are exchanged using regridded flux conservative sparse matrix interpolation weights computed from the SCRIP spherical coordinate remapping interpolation package. We describe the modeling components and the model field exchange methods. As part of the system, the wave and ocean models run with cascading, refined, spatial grids to provide increased resolution, scaling down to resolve nearshore wave driven flows simulated by the vortex force formulation, all within selected regions of a larger, coarser-scale coastal modeling system. The ocean and wave models are driven by the atmospheric component, which is affected by wave dependent ocean-surface roughness and sea surface temperature which modify the heat and momentum fluxes at the ocean-atmosphere interface. We describe the application of the modeling system to several regions of multi-scale complexity to identify the significance of larger scale forcing cascading down to smaller scales and to investigate the interactions of the coupled system with increasing degree of model-model interactions. Three examples include the impact of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ida in 2009 that evolved into a tropical storm on the US East coast, and passage of strong cold fronts across the US southeast. Results identify that hurricane intensity is extremely sensitive to sea-surface temperature, with a reduction in intensity when the atmosphere is coupled to the ocean model due to rapid cooling of the ocean from the surface through the mixed layer. Coupling of the ocean to the atmosphere also results in decreased boundary layer stress and coupling of the waves to the atmosphere results in increased sea-surface stress. Wave results are sensitive to both ocean and atmospheric coupling due to wave-current interactions with the ocean and wave-growth from the atmospheric wind stress. Sediment resuspension at regional scale during the hurricane is controlled by shelf width and wave propagation during hurricane approach. Results from simulation of passage of cold fronts suggest that synoptic meteorological systems can strongly impact surf zone and inner shelf response, therefore act as a strong driver for long term littoral sediment transport. We will also present some of the challenges faced to develop the modeling system.

The Influence of Midlatitude Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling on the Low-Frequency Variability of a GCM. Part I: No Tropical SST Forcing*.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bladé, Ileana

1997-08-01

This study examines the extent to which the thermodynamic interactions between the midlatitude atmosphere and the underlying oceanic mixed layer contribute to the low-frequency atmospheric variability. A general circulation model, run under perpetual northern winter conditions, is coupled to a motionless constant-depth mixed layer in midlatitudes, while elsewhere the sea surface temperature (SST) is kept fixed; interannual tropical SST forcing is not included. It is found that coupling does not modify the spatial organization of the variability. The influence of coupling is manifested as a slight reddening of the spectrum of 500-mb geopotential height and a significant enhancement of the lower-tropospheric thermal variance over the oceans at very low frequencies by virtue of the mixed-layer adjustment to surface air temperature variations that occurs on those timescales. This adjustment effectively reduces the thermal damping of the atmosphere associated with surface heat fluxes (or negative oceanic feedback), thus increasing the thermal variance and the persistence of circulation anomalies.In studying the covariability between ocean and atmosphere it is found that the dominant mode of natural atmospheric variability is coupled to the leading mode of SST in each ocean, with the atmosphere leading the ocean by about one month. The cross-correlation function between oceanic and atmospheric anomalies is strongly asymmetric about zero lag. The SST structures are consistent with direct forcing by the anomalous heat fluxes implied by the concurrent surface air temperature and wind fluctuations. Additionally, composites based on large amplitude SST anomaly events contain no evidence of direct driving of atmospheric perturbations by these SST anomalies. Thus, in terms of the spatial organization of the covariability and the evolution of the coupled system from one regime to another, large-scale air-sea interaction in the model is characterized by one-way atmospheric forcing of the mixed layer.These results are qualitatively consistent with those from an earlier idealized study. They imply a subtle but fundamental role for the midlatitude oceans as stabilizing rather than directly generating atmospheric anomalies. It is argued that this scenario is relevant to the dynamics of extratropical atmosphere-ocean coupling on intraseasonal timescales at least: the model is able to qualitatively reproduce the temporal and spatial characteristics of the observed dominant patterns of interaction on these timescales, particularly over the Atlantic.

Impact of two-way ocean atmosphere coupling on precipitation forecast for the coastal Adriatic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerkol, Peter; Cedilnik, Jure; Fettich, Anja; Licer, Matjaz; Strajnar, Benedikt; Jerman, Jure

2017-04-01

A two-way coupled ocean and atmosphere modeling system has been developed at Slovenian Environment Agency and the National Institute of Biology (Ličer at al., 2016). The system comprises 4.4 km ALADIN/ALARO limited-area numerical weather prediction model and Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for Adriatic sea and uses Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) as ocean component outside the POM model domain. The heat and momentum fluxes between sea surface and atmosphere as estimated by ALADIN model are transferred into POM every model time stamp, and sea surface temperature (SST) is returned from POM to ALADIN. A positive impact of such a coupling system with respect to one-way coupling was demonstrated mainly for sea surface variables. In this contribution we study the impact on atmospheric variables, mainly precipitation. Unlike in the previous work where the atmospheric part of the system was reinitialized every day from external (non-coupled) data assimilation cycle, we implement the two-way coupling in the data assimilation cycle for ALADIN. Rather than running long-term simulations which would presumably lack observational information given no data assimilation for the ocean component, we focus on several precipitation events and assess performance of the atmospheric model by running the coupled system for a short warm-up periods beforehand the events. We evaluate several approaches to applying the one- or two-way coupling (in the warm-up period, during the main forecast, or both) and several approaches to using SST information in ALADIN in the one-way coupled mode (POM, MFS, global atmospheric model). Preliminary results suggest that it is important that two-way coupling is applied not only during the long term (e.g. 72 h) forecast but also already in the data assimilation cycle prior to event.

Vulnerability of Population and Transportation Infrastructure at the East Bank of Delaware Bay Due to Coastal Flooding in Sea-Level Rise Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-30

resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional...shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic... ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine

A recipe for simulating the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon and its relation with ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bracco, Annalisa; Kucharski, Fred; Molteni, Franco; Hazeleger, Wilco; Severijns, Camiel

2007-04-01

This study investigates how accurately the interannual variability over the Indian Ocean basin and the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be simulated by different modelling strategies. With a hierarchy of models, from an atmospherical general circulation model (AGCM) forced by observed SST, to a coupled model with the ocean component limited to the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, the role of heat fluxes and of interactive coupling is analyzed. Whenever sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian basin are created by the coupled model, the inverse relationship between the ENSO index and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is recovered, and it is preserved if the atmospherical model is forced by the SSTs created by the coupled model. If the ocean model domain is limited to the Indian Ocean, changes in the Walker circulation over the Pacific during El-Niño years induce a decrease of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. However, the observed correlation between ENSO and the Indian Ocean zonal mode (IOZM) is not properly modelled and the two indices are not significantly correlated, independently on season. Whenever the ocean domain extends to the Pacific, and ENSO can impact both the atmospheric circulation and the ocean subsurface in the equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean, modelled precipitation patterns associated both to ENSO and to the IOZM closely resemble the observations.

Contributions of the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components to the tropical Atlantic SST bias in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Z.; Lee, S. K.; Wang, C.; Kirtman, B. P.; Qiao, F.

2016-02-01

In order to identify and quantify intrinsic errors in the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and their contributions to the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias in CESM1, we propose a new method of diagnosis and apply it to a set of CESM1 simulations. Our analyses of the model simulations indicate that both the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of CESM1 contain large errors in the tropical Atlantic. When the two model components are fully coupled, the intrinsic errors in the two components emerge quickly within a year with strong seasonality in their growth rates. In particular, the ocean-sea ice model contributes significantly in forcing the eastern equatorial Atlantic warm SST bias in early boreal summer. Further analysis shows that the upper thermocline water underneath the eastern equatorial Atlantic surface mixed layer is too warm in a stand-alone ocean-sea ice simulation of CESM1 forced with observed surface flux fields, suggesting that the mixed layer cooling associated with the entrainment of upper thermocline water is too weak in early boreal summer. Therefore, although we acknowledge the potential importance of the westerly wind bias in the western equatorial Atlantic and the low-level stratus cloud bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic, both of which originate from the atmosphere-land model, we emphasize here that solving those problems in the atmosphere-land model alone does not resolve the equatorial Atlantic warm bias in CESM1.

Meridional contrasts in productivity changes driven by the Cenozoic opening of Drake Passage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnadieu, Y.; Ladant, J. B.; Bopp, L.; Wilson, P. A.; Lear, C. H.

2017-12-01

The progressive opening of Drake Passage across the Eocene and the Oligocene occurs contemporaneously to the long-term global cooling of the late Eocene, which culminated with the Eocene-Oligocene glaciation of Antarctica. Atmospheric pCO2 decline during the late Eocene is thought to have played a major role in the climatic shifts of the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, yet reasons behind CO2 variations remain obscure. Changes in marine productivity affecting the biological oceanic carbon pump represent a possible cause. Here, we explore whether and how the opening of Drake Passage may have affected the marine biogeochemistry, and in particular paleoproductivity changes, with the use of a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-biogeochemical model (IPSL-CM5A). We find that the simulated changes to Drake Passage opening exhibit a uniform decrease in the low latitudes while the high latitude response is more spatially heterogeneous. Mechanistically, the low latitude productivity decrease is a consequence of the dramatic reorganization of the ocean circulation when Drake Passage opens, as the shift from a well ventilated to a swampier ocean drives nutrient depletion in the low latitudes. In the high latitudes, the onset of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the model exerts a strong control both on nutrient availability but also on regions of deep water formation, which results in non-uniform patterns of productivity change in the Southern Ocean. The qualitative agreement between geographically diverse long-term paleoproductivity records and the simulated variations suggests that the opening of Drake Passage may contribute to part of the long-term paleoproductivity signal recorded in the data.

Climate impacts of parameterized Nordic Sea overflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Large, William G.; Briegleb, Bruce P.

2010-11-01

A new overflow parameterization (OFP) of density-driven flows through ocean ridges via narrow, unresolved channels has been developed and implemented in the ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4. It represents exchanges from the Nordic Seas and the Antarctic shelves, associated entrainment, and subsequent injection of overflow product waters into the abyssal basins. We investigate the effects of the parameterized Denmark Strait (DS) and Faroe Bank Channel (FBC) overflows on the ocean circulation, showing their impacts on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the North Atlantic climate. The OFP is based on the Marginal Sea Boundary Condition scheme of Price and Yang (1998), but there are significant differences that are described in detail. Two uncoupled (ocean-only) and two fully coupled simulations are analyzed. Each pair consists of one case with the OFP and a control case without this parameterization. In both uncoupled and coupled experiments, the parameterized DS and FBC source volume transports are within the range of observed estimates. The entrainment volume transports remain lower than observational estimates, leading to lower than observed product volume transports. Due to low entrainment, the product and source water properties are too similar. The DS and FBC overflow temperature and salinity properties are in better agreement with observations in the uncoupled case than in the coupled simulation, likely reflecting surface flux differences. The most significant impact of the OFP is the improved North Atlantic Deep Water penetration depth, leading to a much better comparison with the observational data and significantly reducing the chronic, shallow penetration depth bias in level coordinate models. This improvement is due to the deeper penetration of the southward flowing Deep Western Boundary Current. In comparison with control experiments without the OFP, the abyssal ventilation rates increase in the North Atlantic. In the uncoupled simulation with the OFP, the warm bias of the control simulation in the deep North Atlantic is substantially reduced along with salinity bias reductions in the northern North Atlantic. There are similar but more modest bias reductions in the deep temperature and salinity distributions especially in the northern North Atlantic in the coupled OFP case. In coupled simulations, there are noticeable impacts of the OFP on climate. The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are warmer by more than 5°C off the North American coast and by more than 1°C in the Nordic Sea with the OFP. The surface heat fluxes mostly act to diminish these SST changes. There are related changes in the sea level pressure, leading to about 15% weaker westerly wind stress in the northern North Atlantic. In response to the warmer Nordic Sea SSTs, there are reductions in the sea ice extent, improving comparisons with observations. Although the OFP cases improve many aspects of the simulations compared to observations, some significant biases remain, more in coupled than in uncoupled simulations.

System Design for Ocean Sensor Data Transmission Based on Inductive Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ming; Liu, Fei; Zong, Yuan; Hong, Feng

Ocean observation is the precondition to explore and utilize ocean. How to acquire ocean data in a precise, efficient and real-time way is the key question of ocean surveillance. Traditionally, there are three types of methods for ocean data transmission: underwater acoustic, GPRS via mobile network and satellite communication. However, none of them can meet the requirements of efficiency, accuracy, real-time and low cost at the same time. In this paper, we propose a new wireless transmission system for underwater sensors, which established on FGR wireless modules, combined with inductive coupling lab and offshore experiments confirmed the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed wireless transmission system.

Evaluation of an operational water cycle prediction system for the Laurentian Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortin, Vincent; Durnford, Dorothy; Smith, Gregory; Dyck, Sarah; Martinez, Yosvany; Mackay, Murray; Winter, Barbara

2017-04-01

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is implementing new numerical guidance products based on fully coupled numerical models to better inform the public as well as specialized users on the current and future state of various components of the water cycle, including stream flow and water levels. Outputs from this new system, named the Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS), have been available for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River watershed since June 2016. WCPS links together ECCC's weather forecasting model, GEM, the 2-D ice model C-ICE, the 3-D lake and ocean model NEMO, and a 2-D hydrological model, WATROUTE. Information concerning the water cycle is passed between the models at intervals varying from a few minutes to one hour. It currently produces two forecasts per day for the next three days of the complete water cycle in the Great Lakes region, the largest freshwater lake system in the world. Products include spatially-varying precipitation, evaporation, river discharge, water level anomalies, surface water temperatures, ice coverage, and surface currents. These new products are of interest to water resources and management authority, flood forecasters, hydroelectricity producers, navigation, environmental disaster managers, search and rescue teams, agriculture, and the general public. This presentation focuses on the evaluation of various elements forecasted by the system, and weighs the advantages and disadvantages of running the system fully coupled.

An ensemble Kalman filter with a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled model for tropical cyclone forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunii, M.; Ito, K.; Wada, A.

2015-12-01

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) using a regional mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled model was developed to represent the uncertainties of sea surface temperature (SST) in ensemble data assimilation strategies. The system was evaluated through data assimilation cycle experiments over a one-month period from July to August 2014, during which a tropical cyclone as well as severe rainfall events occurred. The results showed that the data assimilation cycle with the coupled model could reproduce SST distributions realistically even without updating SST and salinity during the data assimilation cycle. Therefore, atmospheric variables and radiation applied as a forcing to ocean models can control oceanic variables to some extent in the current data assimilation configuration. However, investigations of the forecast error covariance estimated in EnKF revealed that the correlation between atmospheric and oceanic variables could possibly lead to less flow-dependent error covariance for atmospheric variables owing to the difference in the time scales between atmospheric and oceanic variables. A verification of the analyses showed positive impacts of applying the ocean model to EnKF on precipitation forecasts. The use of EnKF with the coupled model system captured intensity changes of a tropical cyclone better than it did with an uncoupled atmosphere model, even though the impact on the track forecast was negligibly small.

Surface wave effects in the NEMO ocean model: Forced and coupled experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Mogensen, Kristian; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.

2015-04-01

The NEMO general circulation ocean model is extended to incorporate three physical processes related to ocean surface waves, namely the surface stress (modified by growth and dissipation of the oceanic wavefield), the turbulent kinetic energy flux from breaking waves, and the Stokes-Coriolis force. Experiments are done with NEMO in ocean-only (forced) mode and coupled to the ECMWF atmospheric and wave models. Ocean-only integrations are forced with fields from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. All three effects are noticeable in the extratropics, but the sea-state-dependent turbulent kinetic energy flux yields by far the largest difference. This is partly because the control run has too vigorous deep mixing due to an empirical mixing term in NEMO. We investigate the relation between this ad hoc mixing and Langmuir turbulence and find that it is much more effective than the Langmuir parameterization used in NEMO. The biases in sea surface temperature as well as subsurface temperature are reduced, and the total ocean heat content exhibits a trend closer to that observed in a recent ocean reanalysis (ORAS4) when wave effects are included. Seasonal integrations of the coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model consisting of NEMO, the wave model ECWAM, and the atmospheric model of ECMWF similarly show that the sea surface temperature biases are greatly reduced when the mixing is controlled by the sea state and properly weighted by the thickness of the uppermost level of the ocean model. These wave-related physical processes were recently implemented in the operational coupled ensemble forecast system of ECMWF.

Response of the Asian summer monsoons to idealized precession and obliquity forcing in a set of GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosmans, J. H. C.; Erb, M. P.; Dolan, A. M.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Tuenter, E.; Hilgen, F. J.; Edge, D.; Pope, J. O.; Lourens, L. J.

2018-05-01

We examine the response of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons to separate precession and obliquity forcing, using a set of fully coupled high-resolution models for the first time: EC-Earth, GFDL CM2.1, CESM and HadCM3. We focus on the effect of insolation changes on monsoon precipitation and underlying circulation changes, and find strong model agreement despite a range of model physics, parameterization, and resolution. Our results show increased summer monsoon precipitation at times of increased summer insolation, i.e. minimum precession and maximum obliquity, accompanied by a redistribution of precipitation and convection from ocean to land. Southerly monsoon winds over East Asia are strengthened as a consequence of an intensified land-sea pressure gradient. The response of the Indian summer monsoon is less straightforward. Over south-east Asia low surface pressure is less pronounced and winds over the northern Indian Ocean are directed more westward. An Indian Ocean Dipole pattern emerges, with increased precipitation and convection over the western Indian Ocean. Increased temperatures occur during minimum precession over the Indian Ocean, but not during maximum obliquity when insolation is reduced over the tropics and southern hemisphere during northern hemisphere summer. Evaporation is reduced over the northern Indian Ocean, which together with increased precipitation over the western Indian Ocean dampens the increase of monsoonal precipitation over the continent. The southern tropical Indian Ocean as well as the western tropical Pacific (for precession) act as a moisture source for enhanced monsoonal precipitation. The models are in closest agreement for precession-induced changes, with more model spread for obliquity-induced changes, possibly related to a smaller insolation forcing. Our results indicate that a direct response of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons to insolation forcing is possible, in line with speleothem records but in contrast to what most marine proxy climate records suggest.

CICE, The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Elizabeth; Lipscomb, William; Jones, Philip

The Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) is the result of an effort to develop a computationally efficient sea ice component for a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–ice global climate model. It was originally designed to be compatible with the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), an ocean circulation model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use on massively parallel computers. CICE has several interacting components: a vertical thermodynamic model that computes local growth rates of snow and ice due to vertical conductive, radiative and turbulent fluxes, along with snowfall; an elastic-viscous-plastic model of ice dynamics, which predicts the velocity field of themore » ice pack based on a model of the material strength of the ice; an incremental remapping transport model that describes horizontal advection of the areal concentration, ice and snow volume and other state variables; and a ridging parameterization that transfers ice among thickness categories based on energetic balances and rates of strain. It also includes a biogeochemical model that describes evolution of the ice ecosystem. The CICE sea ice model is used for climate research as one component of complex global earth system models that include atmosphere, land, ocean and biogeochemistry components. It is also used for operational sea ice forecasting in the polar regions and in numerical weather prediction models.« less

Molecular Speciation of Trace Metal Organic Complexes in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Repeta, D.; Boiteau, R. M.; Bundy, R. M.; Babcock-Adams, L.

2017-12-01

Microbial production across approximately one third of the surface ocean is limited by extraordinarily low (picomolar) concentrations of dissolved iron, essentially all of which is complexed to strong organic ligands of unknown composition. Other biologically important trace metals (cobalt, copper, zinc, nickel) are also complexed to strong organic ligands, which again have not been extensively characterized. Nevertheless, organic ligands exert a strong influence on metal bioavailability and toxicity. For example, amendment experiments using commercially available siderophores, organic compounds synthesized by microbes to facilitate iron uptake, show these ligands can both facilitate or impede iron uptake depending on the siderophore composition and available uptake pathways. Over the past few years we have developed analytical techniques using high pressure liquid chromatography interfaced with inductively coupled plasma and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry to identify and quantify trace metal organic complexes in laboratory cultures of marine microbes and in seawater. We found siderophores to be widely distributed in the ocean, particularly in regions characterized by low iron concentrations. We also find chemically distinct complexes of copper, zinc, colbalt and nickel that we have yet to fully characterize. We will discuss some of our recent work on trace metal organic speciation in seawater and laboratory cultures, and outline future efforts to better understand the microbial cycling of trace metal organic complexes in the sea.

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE PAGES

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; ...

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

Determining the Effect of the Lunar Nodal Cycle on Tidal Mixing and North Pacific Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullman, D. J.; Schmittner, A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Norton, N. J.; Müller, M.

2016-02-01

Oscillations in the moon's orbit around the earth modulate regional tidal dissipation with a periodicity of 18.6 years. In regions where the diurnal tidal constituents dominate diapycnal mixing, this Lunar Nodal Cycle (LNC) may be significant enough to influence ocean circulation, sea surface temperature, and climate variability. Such periodicity in the LNC as an external forcing may provide a mechanistic source for Pacific decadal variability (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) where diurnal tidal constituents are strong. We have introduced three enhancements to the latest version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to better simulate tidal-forced mixing. First, we have produced a sub-grid scale bathymetry scheme that better resolves the vertical distribution of the barotropic energy flux in regions where the native CESM grid does not resolve high spatial-scale bathymetric features. Second, we test a number of alternative barotropic tidal constituent energy flux fields that are derived from various satellite altimeter observations and tidal models. Third, we introduce modulations of the individual diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal constituents, ranging from monthly to decadal periods, as derived from the full lunisolar tidal potential. Using both ocean-only and fully-coupled configurations, we test the influence of these enhancements, particularly the LNC modulations, on ocean mixing and bidecadal climate variability in CESM.

Pathways of PFOA to the Arctic: variabilities and contributions of oceanic currents and atmospheric transport and chemistry sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

2010-10-01

Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and other perfluorinated compounds are industrial chemicals in use for decades which resist degradation in the environment and seem to accumulate in polar regions. Transport of PFOA was modeled using a spatially resolved global multicompartment model including fully coupled three-dimensional ocean and atmosphere general circulation models, and two-dimensional top soil, vegetation surfaces, and sea ice compartments. In addition to primary emissions, the formation of PFOA in the atmosphere from degradation of 8:2 fluorotelomer alcohol was included as a PFOA source. Oceanic transport, delivered 14.8±5.0 (8-23) t a-1 to the Arctic, strongly influenced by changes in water transport, which determined its interannual variability. This pathway constituted the dominant source of PFOA to the Arctic. Formation of PFOA in the atmosphere led to episodic transport events (timescale of days) into the Arctic with small spatial extent. Deposition in the polar region was found to be dominated by wet deposition over land, and shows maxima in boreal winter. The total atmospheric deposition of PFOA in the Arctic in the 1990s was ≈1 t a-1, much higher than previously estimated, and is dominated by primary emissions rather than secondary formation.

Pathways of PFOA to the Arctic: variabilities and contributions of oceanic currents and atmospheric transport and chemistry sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

2010-05-01

Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and other perfluorinated compounds are industrial chemicals in use since decades which resist degradation in the environment and seem to accumulate in polar regions. Transport of PFOA was modeled using a spatially resolved global multicompartment model including fully coupled three-dimensional ocean and atmosphere general circulation models, and two-dimensional top soil, vegetation surfaces, and sea ice compartments. In addition to primary emissions, the formation of PFOA in the atmosphere from degradation of 8:2 fluorotelomer alcohol was included as a PFOA source. Oceanic transport, delivered 14.8±5.0 (8-23) t a-1 to the Arctic, strongly influenced by changes in water transport, which determined its interannual variability. This pathway constituted the dominant source of PFOA to the Arctic. Formation of PFOA in the atmosphere lead to episodic transport events (timescale of days) into the Arctic with small spatial extent. Deposition in the polar region was found to be dominated by wet deposition over land, and shows maxima in boreal winter. The total atmospheric deposition of PFOA in the Arctic in the 1990s was ≍1 t a-1, much higher than previously estimated, and is dominated by primary emissions rather than secondarily formed.

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations. Part I: Surface fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josse, P.; Caniaux, G.; Giordani, H.; Planton, S.

1999-04-01

A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere is highly non-local and enhanced in the coupled simulation.

Equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface current variability in an Ocean General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanaseelan, C.; Deshpande, Aditi

2018-03-01

The variability of subsurface currents in the equatorial Indian Ocean is studied using high resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations during 1958-2009. February-March eastward equatorial subsurface current (ESC) shows weak variability whereas strong variability is observed in northern summer and fall ESC. An eastward subsurface current with maximum amplitude in the pycnocline is prominent right from summer to winter during strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years when air-sea coupling is significant. On the other hand during weak IOD years, both the air-sea coupling and the ESC are weak. This strongly suggests the role of ESC on the strength of IOD. The extension of the ESC to the summer months during the strong IOD years strengthens the oceanic response and supports intensification and maintenance of IODs through modulation of air sea coupling. Although the ESC is triggered by equatorial winds, the coupled air-sea interaction associated with IODs strengthens the ESC to persist for several seasons thereby establishing a positive feedback cycle with the surface. This suggests that the ESC plays a significant role in the coupled processes associated with the evolution and intensification of IOD events by cooling the eastern basin and strengthening thermocline-SST (sea surface temperature) interaction. As the impact of IOD events on Indian summer monsoon is significant only during strong IOD years, understanding and monitoring the evolution of ESC during these years is important for summer monsoon forecasting purposes. There is a westward phase propagation of anomalous subsurface currents which persists for a year during strong IOD years, whereas such persistence or phase propagation is not seen during weak IOD years, supporting the close association between ESC and strength of air sea coupling during strong IOD years. In this study we report the processes which strengthen the IOD events and the air sea coupling associated with IOD. It also unravels the connection between equatorial Indian Ocean circulation and evolution and strengthening of IOD.

Constraining the Late Miocene paleo-CO2 estimates through GCM model-data comparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradshaw, Catherine; Pound, Matthew; Lunt, Daniel; Flecker, Rachel; Salzmann, Ulrich; Haywood, Alan; Riding, James; Francis, Jane

2010-05-01

The period following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum experienced a continued downward trend in the δ18O record - a record acknowledged as a proxy indicator of both ice volume and temperature (Zachos et al., 2001). Given the link between atmospheric CO2 and temperature (IPCC, 2007), it could be thought that the timeline throughout the Late Miocene would show a general decline in CO2 in accordance with the δ18O record. However, examination of the palaeo-CO2 record shows a relatively flat profile across this time, or perhaps even a slight increase, but there is a wide variation in the palaeo-CO2 estimate for the differing approximation methods. We use the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model of the Hadley Centre, HadCM3L, which has a low resolution ocean (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, Version 3 - low resolution ocean) with TRIFFID (Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics: Cox, 2001) to generate CO2 sensitivity scenarios for the Late Miocene: 180ppmv, 280ppmv and 400ppmv, as well as a preindustrial control simulation: 280 ppmv. We also run the BIOME4 model offline to produce predicted biome distributions for each of our scenarios. We compare both marine and terrestrial modelled temperatures, and the predicted vegetation distributions for these scenarios against available palaeodata As we simulate with a coupled dynamic ocean model, we use planktonic and benthic foraminiferal-based proxy palaeotemperature estimates to compare to the modelled marine temperatures at the depths consistent with the reconstructed palaeoecology of the foraminifera. We compare our modelled terrestrial temperatures to vegetation-based proxy palaeotemperatures, and we use a newly compiled vegetation reconstruction for the Late Miocene to compare to our modelled vegetation distributions. The new Late Miocene vegetation reconstruction is based on a 200+ point database of palaeobotanical sites. Each location is classified into a biome consistent with the BIOME4 model, to allow for easy data - model comparison. We use all these data - model comparisons to constrain the best-fit scenario and the overall most likely Late Miocene CO2 estimate according to the model simulations. Preliminary results suggest that the 400ppmv simulation provides the best fit to the proxy data.

Dense water formation in the north-western Mediterranean area during HyMeX-SOP2 in 1/36° ocean simulations: Ocean-atmosphere coupling impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebeaupin Brossier, Cindy; Léger, Fabien; Giordani, Hervé; Beuvier, Jonathan; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Ducrocq, Véronique; Fourrié, Nadia

2017-07-01

The north-western Mediterranean Sea is a key location for the thermohaline circulation of the basin. The area is characterized by intense air-sea exchanges favored by the succession of strong northerly and north-westerly wind situations (mistral and tramontane) in autumn and winter. Such meteorological conditions lead to significant evaporation and ocean heat loss that are well known as the main triggering factor for the Dense Water Formation (DWF) and winter deep convection episodes. During the HyMeX second field campaign (SOP2, 1 February to 15 March 2013), several platforms were deployed in the area in order to document the DWF and the ocean deep convection, as the air-sea interface conditions. This study investigates the role of the ocean-atmosphere coupling on DWF during winter 2012-2013. The coupled system, based on the NEMO-WMED36 ocean model (1/36° resolution) and the AROME-WMED atmospheric model (2.5 km resolution), was run during 2 months covering the SOP2 and is compared to an ocean-only simulation forced by AROME-WMED real-time forecasts and to observations collected in the north-western Mediterranean area during the HyMeX SOP2. The comparison shows small differences in terms of net heat, water, and momentum fluxes. On average, DWF is slightly sensitive to air-sea coupling. However, fine-scale ocean processes, such as shelf DWF and export or eddies and fronts at the rim of the convective patch, are significantly modified. The wind-current interactions constitute an efficient coupled process at fine scale, acting as a turbulence propagating vectors, producing large mixing and convection at the rim of the convective patch.

Development of a High-Resolution Climate Model for Future Climate Change Projection on the Earth Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanzawa, H.; Emori, S.; Nishimura, T.; Suzuki, T.; Inoue, T.; Hasumi, H.; Saito, F.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kimoto, M.; Sumi, A.

2002-12-01

The fastest supercomputer of the world, the Earth Simulator (total peak performance 40TFLOPS) has recently been available for climate researches in Yokohama, Japan. We are planning to conduct a series of future climate change projection experiments on the Earth Simulator with a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. The main scientific aims for the experiments are to investigate 1) the change in global ocean circulation with an eddy-permitting ocean model, 2) the regional details of the climate change including Asian monsoon rainfall pattern, tropical cyclones and so on, and 3) the change in natural climate variability with a high-resolution model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. To meet these aims, an atmospheric GCM, CCSR/NIES AGCM, with T106(~1.1o) horizontal resolution and 56 vertical layers is to be coupled with an oceanic GCM, COCO, with ~ 0.28ox 0.19o horizontal resolution and 48 vertical layers. This coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model, named MIROC, also includes a land-surface model, a dynamic-thermodynamic seaice model, and a river routing model. The poles of the oceanic model grid system are rotated from the geographic poles so that they are placed in Greenland and Antarctic land masses to avoild the singularity of the grid system. Each of the atmospheric and the oceanic parts of the model is parallelized with the Message Passing Interface (MPI) technique. The coupling of the two is to be done with a Multi Program Multi Data (MPMD) fashion. A 100-model-year integration will be possible in one actual month with 720 vector processors (which is only 14% of the full resources of the Earth Simulator).

Operational seasonal and interannual predictions of ocean conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leetmaa, Ants

1992-01-01

Dr. Leetmaa described current work at the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) on coupled systems leading to a seasonal prediction system. He described the way in which ocean thermal data is quality controlled and used in a four dimensional data assimilation system. This consists of a statistical interpolation scheme, a primitive equation ocean general circulation model, and the atmospheric fluxes that are required to force this. This whole process generated dynamically consist thermohaline and velocity fields for the ocean. Currently routine weekly analyses are performed for the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. These analyses are used for ocean climate diagnostics and as initial conditions for coupled forecast models. Specific examples of output products were shown both in the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean.

Seasonal simulations using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model with data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larow, Timothy Edward

1997-10-01

A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The coupled model is used for seasonal predictions of the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution triangular truncation 42 waves. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version developed by Latif (1987). Coupling is synchronous with exchange of information every two model hours. Using daily analysis from ECMWF and observed monthly mean SSTs from NCEP, two - one year, time dependent, Newtonian relaxation were conducted using the coupled model prior to the seasonal forecasts. Relaxation was selectively applied to the atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature, and dew point depression equations, and to the ocean's surface temperature equation. The ocean's initial conditions are from a six year ocean-only simulation which used observed wind stresses and a relaxation towards observed SSTs for forcings. Coupled initialization was conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 for the 1987 boreal forecast and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988 for the 1988 boreal forecast. Examination of annual means of net heat flux, freshwater flux and wind stress obtained by from the initialization show close agreement with Oberhuber (1988) climatology and the Florida State University pseudo wind stress analysis. Sensitivity of the initialization/assimilation scheme was tested by conducting two - ten member ensemble integrations. Each member was integrated for 90 days (June-August) of the respective year. Initial conditions for the ensembles consisted of the same ocean state as used by the initialize forecasts, while the atmospheric initial conditions were from ECMWF analysis centered on 1 June of the respective year. Root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Nino 3 and Nino 4 regions show greater skill between the initialized forecasts than the ensemble forecasts. It is hypothesized that differences in the specific humidity within the planetary boundary layer are responsible for the large SST errors noted with the ensembles.

Nonlinear interaction between underwater explosion bubble and structure based on fully coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, A. M.; Wu, W. B.; Liu, Y. L.; Wang, Q. X.

2017-08-01

The interaction between an underwater explosion bubble and an elastic-plastic structure is a complex transient process, accompanying violent bubble collapsing, jet impact, penetration through the bubble, and large structural deformation. In the present study, the bubble dynamics are modeled using the boundary element method and the nonlinear transient structural response is modeled using the explicit finite element method. A new fully coupled 3D model is established through coupling the equations for the state variables of the fluid and structure and solving them as a set of coupled linear algebra equations. Based on the acceleration potential theory, the mutual dependence between the hydrodynamic load and the structural motion is decoupled. The pressure distribution in the flow field is calculated with the Bernoulli equation, where the partial derivative of the velocity potential in time is calculated using the boundary integral method to avoid numerical instabilities. To validate the present fully coupled model, the experiments of small-scale underwater explosion near a stiffened plate are carried out. High-speed imaging is used to capture the bubble behaviors and strain gauges are used to measure the strain response. The numerical results correspond well with the experimental data, in terms of bubble shapes and structural strain response. By both the loosely coupled model and the fully coupled model, the interaction between a bubble and a hollow spherical shell is studied. The bubble patterns vary with different parameters. When the fully coupled model and the loosely coupled model are advanced with the same time step, the error caused by the loosely coupled model becomes larger with the coupling effect becoming stronger. The fully coupled model is more stable than the loosely coupled model. Besides, the influences of the internal fluid on the dynamic response of the spherical shell are studied. At last, the case that the bubble interacts with an air-backed stiffened plate is simulated. The associated interesting physical phenomenon is obtained and expounded.

The role of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and biological sequestration on atmospheric CO2 uptake during the last deglaciation (CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muschitiello, Francesco; D'Andrea, William J.; Dokken, Trond M.; Schmittner, Andreas

2017-04-01

Understanding the impact of ocean circulation on the global atmospheric CO2 budget is of paramount importance for anticipating the consequences of projected future changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In particular, the efficiency of the oceanic biological pump can impact atmospheric CO2 through changes in vertical carbon export mediated by variations in the nutrient inventory of the North Atlantic basin. However, the causal relationship between North Atlantic Ocean circulation, biological carbon sequestration, and atmospheric CO2 is poorly understood. Here we present new high-resolution planktic-benthic 14C data and biomarker records from an exceptionally well-dated marine core from the Nordic Seas spanning the last deglaciation ( 15,000-10,000 years BP). The records document for the first time large and rapid atmospheric CO2 drawdowns and increase in plankton stocks during major North Atlantic cooling events. Using transient climate simulations from a fully coupled climate-biosphere model, we show that minor perturbations of the North Atlantic biological pump resulting from surface freshening and AMOC weakening can have a major impact on the global atmospheric CO2 budget. Furthermore, our data help clarifying the timing and magnitude of the deglacial CO2 signal recorded in Antarctic ice cores. We conclude that the global CO2 budget is more sensitive to perturbations in North Atlantic circulation than previously thought, which has significance in the future debate of the AMOC response to anthropogenic warming.

Isolating Tracers of Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton (TOPAZ) from Modular Ocean Model (MOM5) to Couple it with a Global Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, H. C.; Moon, B. K.; Wie, J.; Park, H. S.; Kim, K. Y.; Lee, J.; Byun, Y. H.

2017-12-01

This research is motivated by a need to develop a new coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model, a key tool for climate projections. The Modular Ocean Model (MOM5) is a global ocean/ice model developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in the US, and it incorporates Tracers of Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton (TOPAZ), which simulates the marine biota associated with carbon cycles. We isolated TOPAZ from MOM5 into a stand-alone version (TOPAZ-SA), and had it receive initial data and ocean physical fields required. Then, its reliability was verified by comparing the simulation results from the TOPAZ-SA with the MOM5/TOPAZ. This stand-alone version of TOPAZ is to be coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO). Here we present the preliminary results. Acknowledgements This research was supported by the project "Research and Development for KMA Weather, Climate, and Earth system Services" (NIMS-2016-3100) of the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Korea Meteorological Administration.

Ambient seismic wave field

PubMed Central

NISHIDA, Kiwamu

2017-01-01

The ambient seismic wave field, also known as ambient noise, is excited by oceanic gravity waves primarily. This can be categorized as seismic hum (1–20 mHz), primary microseisms (0.02–0.1 Hz), and secondary microseisms (0.1–1 Hz). Below 20 mHz, pressure fluctuations of ocean infragravity waves reach the abyssal floor. Topographic coupling between seismic waves and ocean infragravity waves at the abyssal floor can explain the observed shear traction sources. Below 5 mHz, atmospheric disturbances may also contribute to this excitation. Excitation of primary microseisms can be attributed to topographic coupling between ocean swell and seismic waves on subtle undulation of continental shelves. Excitation of secondary microseisms can be attributed to non-linear forcing by standing ocean swell at the sea surface in both pelagic and coastal regions. Recent developments in source location based on body-wave microseisms enable us to estimate forcing quantitatively. For a comprehensive understanding, we must consider the solid Earth, the ocean, and the atmosphere as a coupled system. PMID:28769015

Analyzing coastal turbidity under complex terrestrial loads characterized by a 'stress connectivity matrix' with an atmosphere-watershed-coastal ocean coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Takahiro; Nadaoka, Kazuo

2018-04-01

Atmospheric, watershed and coastal ocean models were integrated to provide a holistic analysis approach for coastal ocean simulation. The coupled model was applied to coastal ocean in the Philippines where terrestrial sediment loads provided from several adjacent watersheds play a major role in influencing coastal turbidity and are partly responsible for the coastal ecosystem degradation. The coupled model was validated using weather and hydrologic measurement to examine its potential applicability. The results revealed that the coastal water quality may be governed by the loads not only from the adjacent watershed but also from the distant watershed via coastal currents. This important feature of the multiple linkages can be quantitatively characterized by a "stress connectivity matrix", which indicates the complex underlying structure of environmental stresses in coastal ocean. The multiple stress connectivity concept shows the potential advantage of the integrated modelling approach for coastal ocean assessment, which may also serve for compensating the lack of measured data especially in tropical basins.

Wind effect on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation via sea ice and vertical diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Haijun; Wang, Kun; Dai, Haijin; Wang, Yuxing; Li, Qing

2016-06-01

Effects of wind and fresh water on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated using a fully coupled climate model. The AMOC can change significantly when perturbed by either wind stress or freshwater flux in the North Atlantic. This study focuses on wind stress effect. Our model results show that the wind forcing is crucial in maintaining the AMOC. Reducing wind forcing over the ocean can cause immediately weakening of the vertical salinity diffusion and convection in the mid-high latitudes Atlantic, resulting in an enhancement of vertical salinity stratification that restrains the deep water formation there, triggering a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. As the thermohaline circulation weakens, the sea ice expands southward and melts, providing the upper ocean with fresh water that weakens the thermohaline circulation further. The wind perturbation experiments suggest a positive feedback between sea-ice and thermohaline circulation strength, which can eventually result in a complete shutdown of the AMOC. This study also suggests that sea-ice variability may be also important to the natural AMOC variability on decadal and longer timescales.

Simulations of the future precipitation climate of the Central Andes using a coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, S.; Mohr, K. I.

2014-12-01

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. Global climate models, although capable of resolving synoptic-scale South American climate features, are inadequate for fully-resolving the strong gradients between climate regimes and the complex orography which define the Tropical Andes given their low spatial and temporal resolution. Recent computational advances now make practical regional climate modeling with prognostic mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled models, such as the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, to climate research. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the both the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data. More recently, COAWST simulations have also been shown to sensibly reproduce the entire annual cycle of rainfall (Oct 2003 - Oct 2004) with historical climate model input. Using future global climate model input for COAWST, the present work involves year-long cycle spanning October to October for the years 2031, 2059, and 2087 assuming the most likely regional climate pathway (RCP): RCP 6.0. COAWST output is used to investigate how global climate change impacts the spatial distribution, precipitation rates, and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns in the Central Andes vary in these yearly "snapshots". Initial results show little change to precipitation coverage or its diurnal cycle, however precipitation amounts did tend drier over the Brazilian Plateau and wetter over the Western Amazon and Central Andes. These results suggest potential adjustments to large-scale climate features (such as the Bolivian High).

Future Evolution of Marine Heat Waves in the Mediterranean: Coupled Regional Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmaraki, Sofia; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Nabat, Pierre; Cavicchia, Leone; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

FUTURE EVOLUTION OF MARINE HEAT WAVES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN : COUPLED REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS The Mediterranean area is identified as a « Hot Spot » region, vulnerable to future climate change with potentially strong impacts over the sea. By 2100, climate models predict increased warming over the sea surface, with possible implications on the Mediterranean thermohaline and surface circulation,associated also with severe impacts on the ecosystems (e.g. fish habitat loss, species extinction and migration, invasive species). However, a robust assesment of the future evolution of the extreme marine temperatures remains still an open issue of primary importance, under the anthropogenic pressure. In this context, we study here the probability and characteristics of marine heat wave (MHW) occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea in future climate projections. To this end, we use an ensemble of fully coupled regional climate system models (RCSM) from the Med- CORDEX initiative. This multi-model approach includes a high-resolution representation of the atmospheric, land and ocean component, with a free air-sea interface.Specifically, dedicated simulations for the 20th and the 21st century are carried out with respect to the different IPCC-AR5 socioeconomic scenarios (1950-2100, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Model evaluation for the historical period is performed using satellite and in situ data. Then, the variety of factors that can cause the MHW (e.g. direct radiative forcing, ocean advection, stratification change) are examined to disentangle the dominant driving force. Finally, the spatial variability and temporal evolution of MHW are analyzed on an annual basis, along with additional integrated indicators, useful for marine ecosystems.

Contribution of ionospheric monitoring to tsunami warning: results from a benchmark exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolland, L.; Makela, J. J.; Drob, D. P.; Occhipinti, G.; Lognonne, P. H.; Kherani, E. A.; Sladen, A.; Rakoto, V.; Grawe, M.; Meng, X.; Komjathy, A.; Liu, T. J. Y.; Astafyeva, E.; Coisson, P.; Budzien, S. A.

2016-12-01

Deep ocean pressure sensors have proven very effective to quantify tsunami waves in real-time. Yet, the cost of these sensors and maintenance strongly limit the extensive deployment of dense networks. Thus a complete observation of the tsunami wave-field is not possible so far. In the last decade, imprints of moderate to large transpacific tsunami wave-fields have been registered in the ionosphere through the atmospheric internal gravity wave coupled with the tsunami during its propagation. Those ionospheric observations could provide a an additional description of the phenomenon with a high spatial coverage. Ionospheric observations have been supported by numerical modeling of the ocean-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling, developed by different groups. We present here the first results of a cross-validation exercise aimed at testing various forward simulation techniques. In particular, we compare different approaches for modeling tsunami-induced gravity waves including a pseudo-spectral method, finite difference schemes, a fully coupled normal modes modeling approach, a Fourier-Laplace compressible ray-tracing solution, and a self-consistent, three-dimensional physics-based wave perturbation (WP) model based on the augmented Global Thermosphere-Ionosphere Model (WP-GITM). These models and other existing models use either a realistic sea-surface motion input model or a simple analytic model. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of the different methods and setup common inputs to the models so that meaningful comparisons of model outputs can be made to higlight physical conclusions and understanding. Nominally, we highlight how the different models reproduce or disagree for two study cases: the ionospheric observations related to the 2012 Mw7.7 Haida Gwaii, Canada, and 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, Chile, events. Ultimately, we explore the possibility of computing a transfer function in order to convert ionospheric perturbations directly into tsunami height estimates.

FULLY COUPLED "ONLINE" CHEMISTRY WITHIN THE WRF MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A fully coupled "online" Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model has been developed. The air quality component of the model is fully consistent with the meteorological component; both components use the same transport scheme (mass and scalar preserving), the s...

Stochastic Forcing for High-Resolution Regional and Global Ocean and Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Ensemble Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowley, C. D.; Hogan, P. J.; Martin, P.; Thoppil, P.; Wei, M.

2017-12-01

An extended range ensemble forecast system is being developed in the US Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC), and a global ocean ensemble generation capability to represent uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions has been developed. At extended forecast times, the uncertainty due to the model error overtakes the initial condition as the primary source of forecast uncertainty. Recently, stochastic parameterization or stochastic forcing techniques have been applied to represent the model error in research and operational atmospheric, ocean, and coupled ensemble forecasts. A simple stochastic forcing technique has been developed for application to US Navy high resolution regional and global ocean models, for use in ocean-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-wave ensemble forecast systems. Perturbation forcing is added to the tendency equations for state variables, with the forcing defined by random 3- or 4-dimensional fields with horizontal, vertical, and temporal correlations specified to characterize different possible kinds of error. Here, we demonstrate the stochastic forcing in regional and global ensemble forecasts with varying perturbation amplitudes and length and time scales, and assess the change in ensemble skill measured by a range of deterministic and probabilistic metrics.

Coastal Jets, Oceanic Upwelling, Mesoscale Eddies, and Clouds in the Southeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, X.; Wang, S.; Jiang, Q.; O'Neill, L. W.; Hodur, R.; Chen, S.; Martin, P.; Cummings, J. A.

2009-12-01

Coastal jets, oceanic upwelling, mesoscale eddies, and clouds in the Southeast Pacific (SEP) are studied using the two-way-coupled COAMPS/NCOM system with the NCODA for the ocean data assimilation. The coupled system was run for the period of the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS) field campaign from 20 October to 30 November, 2008. The investigation of the feedback between the atmosphere and the ocean is focused on the periods of the strong and the weak coastal jets. During the strong coastal jet period, colder and drier air along the coast results in larger surface heat fluxes and increased boundary layer height. More extensive and organized clouds are generated in the strongly unstable conditions in the atmospheric boundary layer. The oceanic upwelling is stronger and the upwelled cold water extends further offshore. During the weak coastal jet period, the cyclonic and anti-cyclonic oceanic eddies propagate westward more significantly. The inertial oscillations induced by the variations of the wind stress also increase in strength with stronger phase shifts between the oscillations in the upper and the lower layers of the ocean. In addition, the model results from the coupled system were evaluated with available observations from the VOCALS field campaign.

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vichi, Marcello; Manzini, Elisa; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Alessandri, Andrea; Patara, Lavinia; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio

2011-11-01

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

A coupled ice-ocean model of upwelling in the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roed, L. P.; Obrien, J. J.

1983-01-01

A dynamical coupled ice-ocean numerical model for the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is suggested and used to study upwelling dynamics in the MIZ. The nonlinear sea ice model has a variable ice concentration and includes internal ice stress. The model is forced by stresses on the air/ocean and air/ice surfaces. The main coupling between the ice and the ocean is in the form of an interfacial stress on the ice/ocean interface. The ocean model is a linear reduced gravity model. The wind stress exerted by the atmosphere on the ocean is proportional to the fraction of open water, while the interfacial stress ice/ocean is proportional to the concentration of ice. A new mechanism for ice edge upwelling is suggested based on a geostrophic equilibrium solution for the sea ice medium. The upwelling reported in previous models invoking a stationary ice cover is shown to be replaced by a weak downwelling due to the ice motion. Most of the upwelling dynamics can be understood by analysis of the divergence of the across ice edge upper ocean transport. On the basis of numerical model, an analytical model is suggested that reproduces most of the upwelling dynamics of the more complex numerical model.

The vector radiative transfer numerical model of coupled ocean-atmosphere system using the matrix-operator method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xianqiang, He; Delu, Pan; Yan, Bai; Qiankun, Zhu

2005-10-01

The numerical model of the vector radiative transfer of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is developed based on the matrix-operator method, which is named PCOART. In PCOART, using the Fourier analysis, the vector radiative transfer equation (VRTE) splits up into a set of independent equations with zenith angle as only angular coordinate. Using the Gaussian-Quadrature method, VRTE is finally transferred into the matrix equation, which is calculated by using the adding-doubling method. According to the reflective and refractive properties of the ocean-atmosphere interface, the vector radiative transfer numerical model of ocean and atmosphere is coupled in PCOART. By comparing with the exact Rayleigh scattering look-up-table of MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), it is shown that PCOART is an exact numerical calculation model, and the processing methods of the multi-scattering and polarization are correct in PCOART. Also, by validating with the standard problems of the radiative transfer in water, it is shown that PCOART could be used to calculate the underwater radiative transfer problems. Therefore, PCOART is a useful tool to exactly calculate the vector radiative transfer of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, which can be used to study the polarization properties of the radiance in the whole ocean-atmosphere system and the remote sensing of the atmosphere and ocean.

Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in Coupled Climate Models and its relationship to the Recharge Oscillator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayr, Tobias; Wengel, Christian; Latif, Mojib

2016-04-01

Dommenget (2010) found that El Niño-like variability, termed Slab Ocean El Niño, can exist in the absence of ocean dynamics and is driven by the interaction of the atmospheric surface heat fluxes and the heat content of the upper ocean. Further, Dommenget et al. (2014) report the Slab Ocean El Niño is not an artefact of the ECHAM5-AGCM coupled to a slab ocean model. In fact, atmospheric feedbacks crucial to the Slab Ocean El Niño can also be found in many state-of-the-art coupled climate models participating in CMIP3 and CMIP5, so that ENSO in many CMIP models can be understood as a mixed recharge oscillator/Slab Ocean El Niño mode. Here we show further analysis of the Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in coupled models. The BCCR_CM2.0 climate model from the CMIP3 data base, which has a very large equatorial cold bias, has an El Niño that is mostly driven by Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks and is used as an example to describe Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in a coupled model. In the BCCR_CM2.0, the ENSO-related variability in the 20°C isotherm (Z20), a measure of upper ocean heat content, is decoupled from the first mode of the seasonal cycle-related variability, while the two are coupled in observations, with ENSO being phase-locked to the seasonal cycle. Further analysis of the seasonal cycle in Z20 using SODA Ocean Reanalysis reveals two different regimes in the seasonal cycle along the equator: The first regime, to which ENSO is phase-locked, extends over the west and central equatorial Pacific and is driven by subsurface ocean dynamics. The second regime, extending in observations only over the cold tongue region, is driven by the seasonal cycle at the sea surface and is shifted by roughly six months relative to the first regime. In a series of experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) with different mean states due to tuning in the convection parameters, we can show that the strength of the equatorial cold bias and the coupling strength between the seasonal cycle of Z20 and ENSO are anti-correlated, i.e. a strong equatorial cold bias suppresses recharge oscillator dynamics and enhances Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks, supporting the results from the BCCR_CM2.0. This can be explained as with a stronger cold bias the second regime of the seasonal cycle in Z20, which extends in observations only over the small cold tongue region, expands westward and becomes more important, so that it decouples ENSO from the seasonal cycle in Z20. This has implications for some major characteristics of the ENSO like the propagation of SST anomalies, the phase locking of SST to the seasonal cycle, or the nonlinearity of ENSO. Dommenget, D., 2010: The slab ocean El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20701, doi:10.1029/2010GL044888. - - , S. Haase, T. Bayr, and C. Frauen, 2014: Analysis of the Slab Ocean El Niño atmospheric feedbacks in observed and simulated ENSO dynamics. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2057-0.

Manifestation of remote response over the equatorial Pacific in a climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Vasubandhu; Marx, L.

2007-10-01

In this paper we examine the simulations over the tropical Pacific Ocean from long-term simulations of two different versions of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled climate model that have a different global distribution of the inversion clouds. We find that subtle changes made to the numerics of an empirical parameterization of the inversion clouds can result in a significant change in the coupled climate of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In one coupled simulation of this study we enforce a simple linear spatial filtering of the diagnostic inversion clouds to ameliorate its spatial incoherency (as a result of the Gibbs effect) while in the other we conduct no such filtering. It is found from the comparison of these two simulations that changing the distribution of the shallow inversion clouds prevalent in the subsidence region of the subtropical high over the eastern oceans in this manner has a direct bearing on the surface wind stress through surface pressure modifications. The SST in the warm pool region responds to this modulation of the wind stress, thus affecting the convective activity over the warm pool region and also the large-scale Walker and Hadley circulation. The interannual variability of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is also modulated by this change to the inversion clouds. Consequently, this sensitivity has a bearing on the midlatitude height response. The same set of two experiments were conducted with the respective versions of the atmosphere general circulation model uncoupled to the ocean general circulation model but forced with observed SST to demonstrate that this sensitivity of the mean climate of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is unique to the coupled climate model where atmosphere, ocean and land interact. Therefore a strong case is made for adopting coupled ocean-land-atmosphere framework to develop climate models as against the usual practice of developing component models independent of each other.

Oceanic sources of predictability for MJO propagation across the Maritime Continent in a subset of S2S forecast models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMott, C. A.; Klingaman, N. P.

2017-12-01

Skillful prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) passage across the Maritime Continent (MC) has important implications for global forecasts of high-impact weather events, such as atmospheric rivers and heat waves. The North American teleconnection response to the MJO is strongest when MJO convection is located in the western Pacific Ocean, but many climate and forecast models are deficient in their simulation of MC-crossing MJO events. Compared to atmosphere-only general circulation models (AGCMs), MJO simulation skill generally improves with the addition of ocean feedbacks in coupled GCMs (CGCMs). Using observations, previous studies have noted that the degree of ocean coupling may vary considerably from one MJO event to the next. The coupling mechanisms may be linked to the presence of ocean Equatorial Rossby waves, the sign and amplitude of Equatorial surface currents, and the upper ocean temperature and salinity profiles. In this study, we assess the role of ocean feedbacks to MJO prediction skill using a subset of CGCMs participating in the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Project database. Oceanic observational and reanalysis datasets are used to characterize the upper ocean background state for observed MJO events that do and do not propagate beyond the MC. The ability of forecast models to capture the oceanic influence on the MJO is first assessed by quantifying SST forecast skill. Next, a set of previously developed air-sea interaction diagnostics is applied to model output to measure the role of SST perturbations on the forecast MJO. The "SST effect" in forecast MJO events is compared to that obtained from reanalysis data. Leveraging all ensemble members of a given forecast helps disentangle oceanic model biases from atmospheric model biases, both of which can influence the expression of ocean feedbacks in coupled forecast systems. Results of this study will help identify areas of needed model improvement for improved MJO forecasts.

Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC yields a NAO-like pattern with intensified Icelandic low and Azores high, and a warming of 0.25-0.5 °C of the central North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST). The reanalysis forced simulations indicate a coupling between the Labrador Sea Water production rate and an equatorial Atlantic SST index in accordance with observations. This coupling is not identified in the coupled simulation.

Coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling of the Mount Pinatubo Impact on the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

2017-12-01

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo had dramatic effects on the regional climate in the Middle East. Though acknowledged, these effects have not been thoroughly studied. To fill this gap and to advance understanding of the mechanisms that control variability in the Middle East's regional climate, we simulated the impact of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system set for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. We used the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework, which couples the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). We modified the WRF model to account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Our coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations verified by available observations revealed strong perturbations in the energy balance of the Red Sea, which drove thermal and circulation responses. Our modeling approach allowed us to separate changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by the impact of the volcano from direct regional radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols. The atmospheric circulation effect was significantly stronger than the direct volcanic aerosols effect. We found that the Red Sea response to the Pinatubo eruption was stronger and qualitatively different from that of the global ocean system. Our results suggest that major volcanic eruptions significantly affect the climate in the Middle East and the Red Sea and should be carefully taken into account in assessments of long-term climate variability and warming trends in MENA and the Red Sea.

A New Perspective on the Foraging Ecology of Apex Predators in the California Current: Results from a Fully Coupled Ecosystem Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiechter, J.; Huckstadt, L. A.; Rose, K.; Costa, D. P.; Curchitser, E. N.; Hedstrom, K.; Edwards, C. A.; Moore, A. M.

2016-02-01

Results from a fully coupled end-to-end ecosystem model for the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem are used to describe the impact of environmental variability on the foraging ecology of its most abundant apex predator, California sea lions (Zalophus californianus). The ecosystem model consists of a biogeochemical submodel embedded in a regional ocean circulation submodel, and both coupled with a multi-species individual-based submodel for forage fish (sardine and anchovy) and California sea lions. For sea lions, bioenergetics and behavioral attributes are specified using available TOPP (Tagging Of Pacific Predators) data on their foraging patterns and diet in the California Current. Sardine and anchovy are explicitly included in the model as they represent important prey sources for California sea lions and exhibit significant interannual and decadal variability in population abundances. Output from a 20-year run (1989-2008) of the model demonstrates how different physical and biological processes control habitat utilization and foraging success of California sea lions on interannual time scales. A principal component analysis of sea lion foraging patterns indicates that the first mode of variability is alongshore and tied to sardine availability, while the second mode is cross-shore and associated with coastal upwelling intensity (a behavior consistent with male sea lion tracking data collected in 2004 vs. 2005). The results also illustrate how variability in environmental conditions and forage fish distribution affects sea lions feeding success. While specifically focusing on the foraging ecology of sea lions, our modeling framework has the ability to provide new and unique perspectives on trophic interactions in the California Current, or other regions where similar end-to-end ecosystem models may be implemented.

78 FR 46322 - Endangered and Threatened Species; 90-Day Finding on Petition To Delist the Southern Oregon...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-31

..., August 15, 2011). As part of each review, we fully considered the effects of ocean productivity on coho... ocean productivity was considered, including consideration of Mantua et al., 1997. We published our... adverse effects of natural environmental variability caused by drought, flooding and ocean productivity...

Effect of Global Warming and Increased Freshwater Flux on Northern Hemispheric Cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girihagama, L. N.; Nof, D.

2016-02-01

We wish to answer the, fairly complicated, question of whether global warming and an increased freshwater flux can cause Northern Hemispheric warming or cooling. Starting from the assumption that the ocean is the primary source of variability in the Northern hemispheric ocean-atmosphere coupled system, we employed a simple non-linear one-dimensional coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The simplicity of the model allows us to analytically predict the evolution of many dynamical variables of interest such as, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperatures of the ocean and atmosphere, mass transports, salinity, and ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes. The model results show that a reduced AMOC transport due to an increased freshwater flux causes cooling in both the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic (NA) deep-water formation region. Cooling in both the ocean and atmosphere can cause reduction of the ocean-atmosphere temperature difference, which in turn reduces heat fluxes in both the ocean and atmosphere. For present day climate parameters, the calculated critical freshwater flux needed to arrest AMOC is 0.08 Sv. For a constant atmospheric zonal flow, there is minimal reduction in the AMOC strength, as well as minimal warming of the ocean and atmosphere. This model provides a conceptual framework for a dynamically sound response of the ocean and atmosphere to AMOC variability as a function of increased freshwater flux. The results are qualitatively consistent with numerous realistic coupled numerical models of varying complexity.

Using the Model Coupling Toolkit to couple earth system models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warner, J.C.; Perlin, N.; Skyllingstad, E.D.

2008-01-01

Continued advances in computational resources are providing the opportunity to operate more sophisticated numerical models. Additionally, there is an increasing demand for multidisciplinary studies that include interactions between different physical processes. Therefore there is a strong desire to develop coupled modeling systems that utilize existing models and allow efficient data exchange and model control. The basic system would entail model "1" running on "M" processors and model "2" running on "N" processors, with efficient exchange of model fields at predetermined synchronization intervals. Here we demonstrate two coupled systems: the coupling of the ocean circulation model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to the surface wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of ROMS to the atmospheric model Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS). Both coupled systems use the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) as a mechanism for operation control and inter-model distributed memory transfer of model variables. In this paper we describe requirements and other options for model coupling, explain the MCT library, ROMS, SWAN and COAMPS models, methods for grid decomposition and sparse matrix interpolation, and provide an example from each coupled system. Methods presented in this paper are clearly applicable for coupling of other types of models. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and application of gravity-capillary wave fourier analysis for the study of air-sea interaction physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacKenzie Laxague, Nathan Jean

Short ocean waves play a crucial role in the physical coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere. This is particularly true for gravity-capillary waves, waves of a scale (O(0.01-0.1) m) such that they are similarly restored to equilibrium by gravitational and interfacial tension (capillary) effects. These waves are inextricably linked to the turbulent boundary layer processes which characterize near-interfacial flows, acting as mediators of the momentum, gas, and heat fluxes which bear greatly on surface material transport, tropical storms, and climatic processes. The observation of these waves and the fluid mechanical phenomena which govern their behavior has long posed challenges to the would-be observer. This is due in no small part to the delicacy of centimeter-scale waves and the sensitivity of their properties to disruption via tactile measurement. With the ever-growing interest in satellite remote sensing, direct observations of short wave characteristics are needed along coastal margins. These zones are characterized by a diversity of physical processes which can affect the short-scale sea surface topography that is directly sensed via radar backscatter. In a related vein, these observations are needed to more fully understand the specific hydrodynamic relationship between young, wind-generated gravity-capillary waves and longer gravity waves. Furthermore, understanding of the full oceanic current profile is hampered by a lack of observations in the near-surface domain (z = O(0.01-0.1) m), where flows can differ greatly from those at depth. Here I present the development of analytical techniques for describing gravity-capillary ocean surface waves in order to better understand their role in the mechanical coupling between the atmosphere and ocean. This is divided amongst a number of research topics, each connecting short ocean surface waves to a physical forcing process via the transfer of momentum. One involves the examination of the sensitivity of short ocean surface waves to atmospheric forcing. Another is the exploration of long wave-short wave interactions and their effects on air-sea interaction vis-a-vis hydrodynamic modulation. The third and final topic is the characterization of the gravity-capillary regime of the wavenumber-frequency spectrum for the purpose of retrieving near-surface, wind-driven current. All of these fit as part of the desire to more fully describe the mechanism by which momentum is transferred across the air-sea interface and to discuss the consequences of this flux in the very near-surface layer of the ocean. Gravity-capillary waves are found to have an outsize share of ocean surface roughness, with short wave spectral peaks showing a connection to turbulent atmospheric stress. Short wave modulation is found to occur strongest at high wavenumbers at the lowest wind speeds, with peak modulation occurring immediately downwind of the long wave crest. Furthermore, short scale roughness enhancement is found to occur upwind of the long wave crest for increasing wind forcing magnitude. Observations of the near-surface current profile show that flows retrieved via this method agree well with the results of camera-tracked dye. Application of this method to data collected in the mouth of the Columbia River (MCR) indicates the presence of a near-surface current component that departs considerably from the tidal flow and orients into the wind stress direction. These observations demonstrate that wind speed-based parameterizations may not be sufficient to estimate wind drift and hold implications for the way in which surface material (e.g., debris or spilled oil) transport is estimated when atmospheric stress is of relatively high magnitude or is steered off the mean wind direction.

Impact of resolving the diurnal cycle in an ocean-atmosphere GCM. Part 2: A diurnally coupled CGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernie, D. J.; Guilyardi, E.; Madec, G.; Slingo, J. M.; Woolnough, S. J.; Cole, J.

2008-12-01

Coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (GCM) are typically coupled once every 24 h, excluding the diurnal cycle from the upper ocean. Previous studies attempting to examine the role of the diurnal cycle of the upper ocean and particularly of diurnal SST variability have used models unable to resolve the processes of interest. In part 1 of this study a high vertical resolution ocean GCM configuration with modified physics was developed that could resolve the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean. In this study it is coupled every 3 h to atmospheric GCM to examine the sensitivity of the mean climate simulation and aspects of its variability to the inclusion of diurnal ocean-atmosphere coupling. The inclusion of the diurnal cycle leads to a tropics wide increase in mean sea surface temperature (SST), with the strongest signal being across the equatorial Pacific where the warming increases from 0.2°C in the central and western Pacific to over 0.3°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Much of this warming is shown to be a direct consequence of the rectification of daily mean SST by the diurnal variability of SST. The warming of the equatorial Pacific leads to a redistribution of precipitation from the Inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) toward the equator. In the western Pacific there is an increase in precipitation between Papa new guinea and 170°E of up to 1.2 mm/day, improving the simulation compared to climatology. Pacific sub tropical cells are increased in strength by about 10%, in line with results of part 1 of this study, due to the modification of the exchange of momentum between the equatorially divergent Ekman currents and the geostropic convergence at depth, effectively increasing the dynamical response of the tropical Pacific to zonal wind stresses. During the spring relaxation of the Pacific trade winds, a large diurnal cycle of SST increases the seasonal warming of the equatorial Pacific. When the trade winds then re-intensify, the increase in the dynamical response of the ocean leads to a stronger equatorial upwelling. These two processes both lead to stronger seasonal basin scale feedbacks in the coupled system, increasing the strength of the seasonal cycle of the tropical Pacific sector by around 10%. This means that the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean plays a part in the coupled feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere that maintain the basic state and the timing of the seasonal cycle of SST and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined by use of a large scale MJO index, lag correlations and composites of events. The inclusion of the diurnal cycle leads to a reduction in overall MJO activity. Precipitation composites show that the MJO is stronger and more coherent when the diurnal cycle of coupling is resolved, with the propagation and different phases being far more distinct both locally and to larger lead times across the tropical Indo-Pacific. Part one of this study showed that that diurnal variability of SST is modulated by the MJO and therefore increases the intraseasonal SST response to the different phases of the MJO. Precipitation-based composites of SST variability confirm this increase in the coupled simulations. It is argued that including this has increased the thermodynamical coupling of the ocean and atmosphere on the timescale of the MJO (20-100 days), accounting for the improvement in the MJO strength and coherency seen in composites of precipitation and SST. These results show that the diurnal cycle of ocean-atmosphere interaction has profound impact on a range of up-scale variability in the tropical climate and as such, it is an important feature of the modelled climate system which is currently either neglected or poorly resolved in state of the art coupled models.

Estimation of oceanic subsurface mixing under a severe cyclonic storm using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prakash, Kumar Ravi; Nigam, Tanuja; Pant, Vimlesh

2018-04-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model was used to examine mixing in the upper-oceanic layers under the influence of a very severe cyclonic storm Phailin over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 10-14 October 2013. The coupled model was found to improve the sea surface temperature over the uncoupled model. Model simulations highlight the prominent role of cyclone-induced near-inertial oscillations in subsurface mixing up to the thermocline depth. The inertial mixing introduced by the cyclone played a central role in the deepening of the thermocline and mixed layer depth by 40 and 15 m, respectively. For the first time over the BoB, a detailed analysis of inertial oscillation kinetic energy generation, propagation, and dissipation was carried out using an atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model during a cyclone. A quantitative estimate of kinetic energy in the oceanic water column, its propagation, and its dissipation mechanisms were explained using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model. The large shear generated by the inertial oscillations was found to overcome the stratification and initiate mixing at the base of the mixed layer. Greater mixing was found at the depths where the eddy kinetic diffusivity was large. The baroclinic current, holding a larger fraction of kinetic energy than the barotropic current, weakened rapidly after the passage of the cyclone. The shear induced by inertial oscillations was found to decrease rapidly with increasing depth below the thermocline. The dampening of the mixing process below the thermocline was explained through the enhanced dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy upon approaching the thermocline layer. The wave-current interaction and nonlinear wave-wave interaction were found to affect the process of downward mixing and cause the dissipation of inertial oscillations.

Description and evaluation of the Earth System Regional Climate Model (RegCM-ES)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farneti, Riccardo; Sitz, Lina; Di Sante, Fabio; Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Coppola, Erika; Mariotti, Laura; Reale, Marco; Sannino, Gianmaria; Barreiro, Marcelo; Nogherotto, Rita; Giuliani, Graziano; Graffino, Giorgio; Solidoro, Cosimo; Giorgi, Filippo

2017-04-01

The increasing availability of satellite remote sensing data, of high temporal frequency and spatial resolution, has provided a new and enhanced view of the global ocean and atmosphere, revealing strong air-sea coupling processes throughout the ocean basins. In order to obtain an accurate representation and better understanding of the climate system, its variability and change, the inclusion of all mechanisms of interaction among the different sub-components, at high temporal and spatial resolution, becomes ever more desirable. Recently, global coupled models have been able to progressively refine their horizontal resolution to attempt to resolve smaller-scale processes. However, regional coupled ocean-atmosphere models can achieve even finer resolutions and provide additional information on the mechanisms of air-sea interactions and feedbacks. Here we describe a new, state-of-the-art, Earth System Regional Climate Model (RegCM-ES). RegCM-ES presently includes the coupling between atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea-ice components, as well as an hydrological and ocean biogeochemistry model. The regional coupled model has been implemented and tested over some of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains. RegCM-ES has shown improvements in the representation of precipitation and SST fields over the tested domains, as well as realistic representations of coupled air-sea processes and interactions. The RegCM-ES model, which can be easily implemented over any regional domain of interest, is open source making it suitable for usage by the large scientific community.

Atmospheric Impact of Large Methane Emissions and the Gulf Oil Spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, S.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Bergmann, D. J.

2010-12-01

A vast quantity of a highly potent greenhouse gas, methane, is locked in the solid phase as methane clathrates in ocean sediments and underneath permafrost regions. Clathrates are ice-like deposits containing a mixture of water and gas (mostly methane) which are stable under high pressure and low temperatures. Current estimates are about 1600 - 2000 GtC present in oceans and about 400GtC in Arctic permafrost (Archer et al. 2009). This is about 4000 times that of current annual emissions. In a warming climate, increase in ocean temperatures could rapidly destabilize the geothermal gradient which in turn could lead to dissociation of the clathrates and release of methane into the ocean and subsequently into the atmosphere as well. This could result in a number of effects including strong greenhouse heating, increased surface ozone, reduced stratospheric ozone, and intensification of the Arctic ozone hole. Many of the effects in the chemistry of the atmosphere are non-linear. In this paper, we present a parametric study of the effect of large scale methane release to the atmosphere. To that end we use the CESM (Community Earth System Model) version 1 with fully active coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model together with super-fast atmospheric chemistry module to simulate the response to increasing CH4 by 2, 3, 10 and 100 times that of the present day. We have also conducted a parametric study of the possible impact of gaseous emissions from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, which is a proxy for future clathrate releases. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reese, Ronja; Albrecht, Torsten; Mengel, Matthias; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2018-06-01

Ocean-induced melting below ice shelves is one of the dominant drivers for mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet at present. An appropriate representation of sub-shelf melt rates is therefore essential for model simulations of marine-based ice sheet evolution. Continental-scale ice sheet models often rely on simple melt-parameterizations, in particular for long-term simulations, when fully coupled ice-ocean interaction becomes computationally too expensive. Such parameterizations can account for the influence of the local depth of the ice-shelf draft or its slope on melting. However, they do not capture the effect of ocean circulation underneath the ice shelf. Here we present the Potsdam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel (PICO), which simulates the vertical overturning circulation in ice-shelf cavities and thus enables the computation of sub-shelf melt rates consistent with this circulation. PICO is based on an ocean box model that coarsely resolves ice shelf cavities and uses a boundary layer melt formulation. We implement it as a module of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) and evaluate its performance under present-day conditions of the Southern Ocean. We identify a set of parameters that yield two-dimensional melt rate fields that qualitatively reproduce the typical pattern of comparably high melting near the grounding line and lower melting or refreezing towards the calving front. PICO captures the wide range of melt rates observed for Antarctic ice shelves, with an average of about 0.1 m a-1 for cold sub-shelf cavities, for example, underneath Ross or Ronne ice shelves, to 16 m a-1 for warm cavities such as in the Amundsen Sea region. This makes PICO a computationally feasible and more physical alternative to melt parameterizations purely based on ice draft geometry.

Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via SIMPEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reese, Ronja; Albrecht, Torsten; Winkelmann, Ricarda

2017-04-01

Ocean-induced melting below ice-shelves is currently suspected to be the dominant cause of mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (e.g. Depoorter et al. 2013). Although thinning of ice shelves does not directly contribute to sea-level rise, it may have a significant indirect impact through the potential of ice shelves to buttress their adjacent ice sheet. Hence, an appropriate representation of sub-shelf melt rates is essential for modelling the evolution of ice sheets with marine terminating outlet glaciers. Due to computational limits of fully-coupled ice and ocean models, sub-shelf melt rates are often parametrized in large-scale or long-term simulations (e.g. Matin et al. 2011, Pollard & DeConto 2012). These parametrizations usually depend on the depth of the ice shelf base or its local slope but do not include the physical processes in ice shelf cavities. Here, we present the Sub Ice shelf Melt Potsdam modEL (SIMPEL) which mimics the first-order large-scale circulation in ice shelf cavities based on an ocean box model (Olbers & Hellmer, 2010), implemented in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler & Brown 2009, Winkelmann et al. 2011, www.pism-docs.org). In SIMPEL, ocean water is transported at depth towards the grounding line where sub-shelf melt rates are highest, and then rises along the shelf base towards the calving front where refreezing can occur. Melt rates are computed by a description of ice-ocean interaction commonly used in high-resolution models (McPhee 1992, Holland & Jenkins 1999). This enables the model to capture a wide-range of melt rates, comparable to the observed range for Antarctic ice shelves (Rignot et al. 2013).

The Effect of the South Asia Monsoon on the Wind Sea and Swell Patterns in the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semedo, Alvaro

2015-04-01

Ocean surface gravity waves have a considerable impact on coastal and offshore infrastructures, and are determinant on ship design and routing. But waves also play an important role on the coastal dynamics and beach erosion, and modulate the exchanges of momentum, and mass and other scalars between the atmosphere and the ocean. A constant quantitative and qualitative knowledge of the wave patterns is therefore needed. There are two types of waves at the ocean surface: wind-sea and swell. Wind-sea waves are growing waves under the direct influence of local winds; as these waves propagate away from their generation area, or when their phase speed overcomes the local wind speed, they are called swell. Swell waves can propagate thousands of kilometers across entire ocean basins. The qualitative analysis of ocean surface waves has been the focus of several recent studies, from the wave climate to the air-sea interaction community. The reason for this interest lies mostly in the fact that waves have an impact on the lower atmosphere, and that the air-sea coupling is different depending on the wave regime. Waves modulate the exchange of momentum, heat, and mass across the air-sea interface, and this modulation is different and dependent on the prevalence of one type of waves: wind sea or swell. For fully developed seas the coupling between the ocean-surface and the overlaying atmosphere can be seen as quasi-perfect, in a sense that the momentum transfer and energy dissipation at the ocean surface are in equilibrium. This can only occur in special areas of the Ocean, either in marginal seas, with limited fetch, or in Open Ocean, in areas with strong and persistent wind speed with little or no variation in direction. One of these areas is the Arabian Sea, along the coasts of Somalia, Yemen and Oman. The wind climate in the Arabian sea is under the direct influence of the South Asia monsoon, where the wind blows steady from the northeast during the boreal winter, and reverses direction to blow also steady but stronger from the southwest during the boreal summer months. During the summer monsoon the wind pattern in the north Arabian Sea is rather intricate, with a large scale synoptic forcing with a high pressure cell over the ocean and a thermal low pressure system in-land, but also with at least two low-level wind jets, the Finlater (or Somali) jet, and the Oman coastal jet. This wind pattern leads to a particular wave pattern and seasonal variability. The monsoon wind pattern has a direct influence in the wave climate in that area, The particular wind-sea and swell climates of the Arabian Sea are presented. The study is based on the ERA-Interim wave reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

2018-03-01

Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

Assessment of ocean models in Mediterranean Sea against altimetry and gravimetry measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen

2017-04-01

This work aims at assessing in a regional study in the Mediterranean Sea the agreement between ocean model outputs and satellite altimetry and satellite gravity observations. Satellite sea level change are from altimeter data made available by the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative (SLCCI) and from satellite gravity data made available by GRACE. We consider two ocean simulations not assimilating satellite altimeter data and one ocean model reanalysis assimilating satellite altimetry. Ocean model simulations can provide some insight on the ocean variability, but they are affected by biases due to errors in model formulation, specification of initial states and forcing, and are not directly constrained by observations. Their trend can be quite different from the altimetric observations due to surface radiation biases, however they are physically consistent. Ocean reanalyses are the combination of ocean models, atmospheric forcing fluxes and ocean observations via data assimilation methods and have the potential to provide more accurate information than observation-only or model-only based ocean estimations. They will be closer to altimetry at long and short timescales, but assimilation may destroy mass consistency. We use two ocean simulations which are part of the Med-CORDEX initiative (https://www.medcordex.eu). The first is the CNRM-RCM4 fully-coupled Regional Climate System Model (RCMS) simulation developed at METEOFRANCE for 1980-2012. The second is the PROTHEUS standalone hindcast simulation developed at ENEA and covers the interval 1960-2012. The third model is the regional model MEDSEA_REANALYSIS_PHIS_006_004 assimilating satellite altimeter data (http://marine.copernicus.eu/) and available over 1987-2014. Comparison at basin and regional scale are made. First the steric, thermo-steric, halosteric and dynamic components output of the models are compared. Then the total sea level given by the models is compared to the altimeter observations. Finally the mass component derived from GRACE is compared to the difference between the total sea level and the steric component. We observe large differences between the ocean models and discuss the model which best agrees with the CCI sea level product at short and at longer timescales. We consider departure in sea level trends, inter-annual variability and seasonal cycle. The work is part of the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative project.

Coupling of Waves, Turbulence and Thermodynamics Across the Marginal Ice Zone

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

under-predict the observed trend of declining sea ice area over the last decade. A potential explanation for this under-prediction is that models...are missing important feedbacks within the ocean- ice system. Results from the proposed research will contribute to improving the upper ocean and sea ...and solar-radiation-driven thermodynamic forcing in the marginal ice zone. Within the MIZ, the ocean- ice - albedo feedback mechanism is coupled to ice

Estimations of Atmospheric Conditions for Input to the Radar Performance Surface

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

timely atmospheric and ocean surface descriptions on features that impact radar and electro-optical sensor systems . The first part of this study is an...Navy’s Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) are compared to in-situ data to assess the sensitivities of air-sea...temperature measurements to make direct comparisons to the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) as a prime source of input to the

Vegetation-rainfall feedbacks across the Sahel: a combined observational and modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Wang, F.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2016-12-01

The Sahel rainfall is characterized by large interannual variability. Past modeling studies have concluded that the Sahel rainfall variability is primarily driven by oceanic forcings and amplified by land-atmosphere interactions. However, the relative importance of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers has never been assessed from observations. The current understanding of vegetation's impacts on climate, i.e. positive vegetation-rainfall feedback through the albedo, moisture, and momentum mechanisms, comes from untested models. Neither the positive vegetation-rainfall feedback, nor the underlying mechanisms, has been fully resolved in observations. The current study fills the knowledge gap about the observed vegetation-rainfall feedbacks, through the application of the multivariate statistical method Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) to observational data. According to GEFA, the observed oceanic impacts dominate over terrestrial impacts on Sahel rainfall, except in the post-monsoon period. Positive leaf area index (LAI) anomalies favor an extended, wetter monsoon across the Sahel, largely due to moisture recycling. The albedo mechanism is not responsible for this positive vegetation feedback on the seasonal-interannual time scale, which is too short for a grass-desert transition. A low-level stabilization and subsidence is observed in response to increased LAI - potentially responsible for a negative vegetation-rainfall feedback. However, the positive moisture feedback overwhelms the negative momentum feedback, resulting in an observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback. We further applied GEFA to a fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) control run, as an example of evaluating climate models against the GEFA-based observational benchmark. In contrast to the observed positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks, CESM simulates a negative vegetation-rainfall feedback across Sahel, peaking in the pre-monsoon season. The simulated negative feedback is largely due to the low-level stabilization caused by increased LAI. Positive moisture feedback is present in the CESM simulation, but an order weaker than the observed and weaker than the negative momentum feedback, thereby leading to the simulated negative vegetation-rainfall feedbacks.

One-Dimensional Coupled Ecosystem-Carbon Flux Model for the Simulation of Biogeochemical Parameters at Ocean Weather Station P

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, S.; McClain, C.; Christian, J.; Wong, C. S.

2000-01-01

In this Technical Publication, we describe the model functionality and analyze its application to the seasonal and interannual variations of phytoplankton, nutrients, pCO2 and CO2 concentrations in the eastern subarctic Pacific at Ocean Weather Station P (OWSP, 50 deg. N 145 deg. W). We use a verified one-dimensional ecosystem model, coupled with newly incorporated carbon flux and carbon chemistry components, to simulate 22 years (1958-1980) of pCO2 and CO2 variability at Ocean Weather Station P (OWS P). This relatively long period of simulation verifies and extends the findings of previous studies using an explicit approach for the biological component and realistic coupling with the carbon flux dynamics. The slow currents and the horizontally homogeneous ocean in the subarctic Pacific make OWS P one of the best available candidates for modeling the chemistry of the upper ocean in one dimension. The chlorophyll and ocean currents composite for 1998 illustrates this premise. The chlorophyll concentration map was derived from SeaWiFS data and the currents are from an OGCM simulation (from R. Murtugudde).

Ocean-Wave Dynamics Analysis during Hurricane Ida and Norida Using a Fully Coupled Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olabarrieta, M.; Warner, J. C.; Armstrong, B. N.

2010-12-01

Extreme storms, such as hurricanes and extratropical storms play a dominant role in shaping the beaches of the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States. Future tropical depressions will be more intense than in the present climate (Assessment Report of IPCC, 2007) and therefore coastal areas are likely to become more susceptible to their effects. The major damage caused by these extreme events is associated with the duration of the storm, storm intensity, waves, and the total water levels reached during the storm. Numerical models provide a useful approach to study the spatial and temporal distribution of these parameters. However, the correct estimation of the total water levels and wind wave heights through numerical modeling requires accurate representation of the air-sea interface dynamics. These processes are highly complex due to the variable interactions between winds, ocean waves and currents near the sea surface. In the present research we use the COAWST (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) modeling system (Warner et al., 2010) to address the key role of the atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions during Hurricane Ida and its posterior evolution to NorIda, November 2009. This northeastern storm was one of the most costly in the past two decades and likely in the top five of the past century. One interesting aspect of the considered period is that it includes two very different atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a northeastern storm, developed in regions with very different oceanographic characteristics. By performing a suite of numerical runs we are able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (WRF model), the ocean (ROMS model) and the wave propagation and generation model (SWAN). Special attention is given to the role of the ocean surface roughness and high resolution SST fields on the atmospheric boundary layers dynamics and consequently these effects on the wind wave generation, surface currents and storm surge. The effects of ocean currents on wind wave generation and propagations are also analyzed. The model results are compared to different data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the NDBC and the National Tidal Database respectively. The results identified that the inclusion of the ocean roughness on the atmospheric module greatly improves the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves and the storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Ida through the Gulf of Mexico the wind speeds are reduced due to the wave induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During NorIda, the effect of the surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. Three different ocean roughness closure models are analyzed, with the wave-age based closure model providing the best results. Ocean currents are also shown to affect wave spectral characteristics through the generation and propagation processes. Changes within 15% on the significant wave height are detected in areas affected by the main oceanic currents: the Gulf Stream and the Loop Current.

Midlatitude atmosphere-ocean interaction during El Nino. Part I. The north Pacific ocean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander, M.A.

Atmosphere-ocean modeling experiments are used to investigate the formation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean during fall and winter of the El Nino year. Experiments in which the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) surface fields are used to force a mixed-layer ocean model in the North Pacific (no air-sea feedback) are compared to simulations in which the CCM and North Pacific Ocean model are coupled. Anomalies in the atmosphere and the North Pacific Ocean during El Nino are obtained from the difference between simulations with and without prescribed warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific.more » In both the forced and coupled experiments, the anomaly pattern resembles a composite of the actual SST anomaly field during El Nino: warm SSTs develop along the coast of North America and cold SSTs form in the central Pacific. In the coupled simulations, air-sea interaction results in a 25% to 50% reduction in the magnitude of the SST and mixed-layer depth anomalies, resulting in more realistic SST fields. Coupling also decreases the SST anomaly variance; as a result, the anomaly centers remain statistically significant even though the magnitude of the anomalies is reduced. Three additional sensitivity studies indicate that air-sea feedback and entrainment act to damp SST anomalies while Ekman pumping has a negligible effect on mixed-layer depth and SST anomalies in midatitudes.« less

Air-sea interactions during strong winter extratropical storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Jill; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.; Bane, John

2014-01-01

A high-resolution, regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to investigate strong air–sea interactions during a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the east coast of the USA. In this two-way coupled system, surface momentum and heat fluxes derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are exchanged via the Model Coupling Toolkit. Comparisons are made between the modeled and observed wind velocity, sea level pressure, 10 m air temperature, and sea surface temperature time series, as well as a comparison between the model and one glider transect. Vertical profiles of modeled air temperature and winds in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and temperature variations in the upper ocean during a 3-day storm period are examined at various cross-shelf transects along the eastern seaboard. It is found that the air–sea interactions near the Gulf Stream are important for generating and sustaining the ETC. In particular, locally enhanced winds over a warm sea (relative to the land temperature) induce large surface heat fluxes which cool the upper ocean by up to 2 °C, mainly during the cold air outbreak period after the storm passage. Detailed heat budget analyses show the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux dominates the upper ocean heat content variations. Results clearly show that dynamic air–sea interactions affecting momentum and buoyancy flux exchanges in ETCs need to be resolved accurately in a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling framework.

Structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation in coupled and uncoupled versions of the superparameterized community atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedict, James J.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward-propagating atmospheric disturbance resembling a transient Walker cell, dominates intraseasonal (20--100 days) variability in the tropical Indian and West Pacific Ocean regions. The phenomenon is most active during the Northern Hemisphere winter and is characterized by cyclic periods of suppressed (dry phase) and active (wet phase) cloudiness and precipitation. Numerous complexities---multi-scale interactions of moist convection and large-scale wave dynamics, air-sea fluxes and feedbacks, topographical impacts, and tropical-extratropical interactions---challenge our ability to fully understand the MJO and result in its poor representation in most current general circulation models (GCMs). This study examines the representation of the MJO in a modified version of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The modifications involve substituting conventional boundary layer, turbulence, and cloud parameterizations with a configuration of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) embedded into each GCM grid cell in a technique termed "superparameterization" (SP). Unlike many GCMs including the standard CAM, the SP-CAM displays robust intraseasonal convective variability. Two SP-CAM simulations are utilized in this study: one forced by observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs; "uncoupled") and a second identical to the first except for a new treatment of tropical SSTs in which a simplified mixed-layer ocean model is used to predict SST anomalies that are coupled to the atmosphere ("coupled"). Key physical features of the MJO are captured in the uncoupled SP-CAM. Ahead (east) of the disturbance there is meridional boundary layer moisture convergence and a vertical progression of warmth, moisture, and convective heating from the lower to upper troposphere. The space-time dynamical response to convective heating is also reproduced, especially the vertical structure of anomalous westerly wind and its migration into the region of heavy rainfall as the disturbance propagates eastward. Advective drying processes in the MJO wake are also represented well. The coupled SP-CAM shows more realistic MJO eastward propagation, signal coherence and spatial structure relative to the uncoupled SP-CAM. The improvement varies with longitude but generally stems from better space-time relationships among MJO convective heating, its dynamical response, SSTs, surface fluxes, boundary layer properties, and vertical moisture structure. Coupled MJO events in the Indian Ocean display more realistic intensity; in the West Pacific, the coupled SP-CAM overestimates convective strength but shows an improved vertical structure relative to the uncoupled SP-CAM. Biases related to MJO convection are also examined. Overestimated convective intensity in the West Pacific appears to be linked to basic state biases, Maritime Continent topographical impacts, unrealistic convection-wind-evaporation feedbacks, and the neglect of convective momentum transport in the model. Phase errors between observed and simulated boundary layer moisture appear to stem from an unrealistic representation of shallow cumuli.

A coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling approach for a Tropical Like Cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricchi, Antonio; Miglietta, M. Marcello; Barbariol, Francesco; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bonaldo, Davide; Falcieri, Francesco; Russo, Aniello; Sclavo, Mauro; Carniel, Sandro

2016-04-01

In November 6-8, 2011, in the Balearic islands an extra-tropical depression developed into a Tropical-Like Cyclone (TLC) characterized by a deep-warm core, leading to a mean sea level pressure minimum of about 991 hPa, 10 m wind speeds higher than 28 m/s around the eye, and very intense rainfall, especially in the Gulf of Lion. To explore in detail the effect of the sea surface temperature on the Medicane evolution, we employed the coupled modeling system COAWST, which consists of the ROMS model for the hydrodynamic part, the WRF model for the meteorological part, and the SWAN for the surface wave modeling. All model run over 5 km domain (same domain for ROMS and SWAN). COAWST was used with different configurations: in Stand Alone (SA) mode (that is, with only the atmospheric part), in atmosphere-ocean coupled mode (AO), and in a fully coupled version including also surface waves (AOW). Several sensitivity simulations performed with the SA approach were undertaken to simulate the TLC evolution. Especially in the later stage of the lifetime, when the cyclone was weaker, the predictability appears limited. Sensitivity simulations have considered the effect of the cumulus scheme (using an explicit scheme the Medicane does not develop and remains an extra-tropical depression) and the PBL scheme (using MYJ or MYNN resulting "Medicane" are extremely similar, although the roughness appears rather different among the two experiments). Comparing the three runs, the effects of different simulations on the Medicane tracks are significant only in the later stage of the cyclone lifetime. In the overall modeled basin, wind intensity is higher in the SA case w.r.t. both coupled runs. When compared to case AO, winds are about 1 m/s larger, even though the spatial distribution is very similar (possibly because of the lower SST produced by case AO). Case AOW produces less intense winds then SA and AO case in the areas where the wave is most developed (differences are about 2-4 m/s), while they are more intense in the neighborhood of the eye of the cyclone. Moreover, the inclusion of the wave model (AOW) has implications in the water column, by changing the depth of the ocean mixed layer along the track of the Medicane, so that eventually the SST in AOW run is colder than in AO. The date chosen for the run initialization appears important: an earlier initial condition allows to properly simulate the evolution of the cyclone from the cyclogenesis and to include the effect of the air-sea interaction through the coupled models.

Monitoring the performance of the next Climate Forecast System version 3, throughout its development stage at EMC/NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña, M.; Saha, S.; Wu, X.; Wang, J.; Tripp, P.; Moorthi, S.; Bhattacharjee, P.

2016-12-01

The next version of the operational Climate Forecast System (version 3, CFSv3) will be a fully coupled six-components system with diverse applications to earth system modeling, including weather and climate predictions. This system will couple the earth's atmosphere, land, ocean, sea-ice, waves and aerosols for both data assimilation and modeling. It will also use the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) software super structure to couple these components. The CFSv3 is part of the next Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which will unify the global prediction systems that are now operational at NCEP. The UGCS is being developed through the efforts of dedicated research and engineering teams and through coordination across many CPO/MAPP and NGGPS groups. During this development phase, the UGCS is being tested for seasonal purposes and undergoes frequent revisions. Each new revision is evaluated to quickly discover, isolate and solve problems that negatively impact its performance. In the UGCS-seasonal model, components (e.g., ocean, sea-ice, atmosphere, etc.) are coupled through a NEMS-based "mediator". In this numerical infrastructure, model diagnostics and forecast validation are carried out, both component by component, and as a whole. The next stage, model optimization, will require enhanced performance diagnostics tools to help prioritize areas of numerical improvements. After the technical development of the UGCS-seasonal is completed, it will become the first realization of the CFSv3. All future development of this system will be carried out by the climate team at NCEP, in scientific collaboration with the groups that developed the individual components, as well as the climate community. A unique challenge to evaluate this unified weather-climate system is the large number of variables, which evolve over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. A small set of performance measures and scorecard displays are been created, and collaboration and software contributions from research and operational centers are being incorporated. A status of the CFSv3/UGCS-seasonal development and examples of its performance and measuring tools will be presented.

Results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1, two interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, X.; Galton-Fenzi, B.; Gwyther, D.; Jourdain, N.; Martin, D. F.; Nakayama, Y.; Seroussi, H. L.

2016-12-01

MISMIP+ (the third Marine Ice Sheet MIP), ISOMIP+ (the second Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP) and MISOMIP1 (the first Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean MIP) prescribe a set of idealized experiments for marine ice-sheet models, ocean models with ice-shelf cavities, and coupled ice sheet-ocean models, respectively. Here, we present results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1 experiments using several ocean-only and coupled ice sheet-ocean models. Among the ocean models, we show that differences in model behavior are significant enough that similar results can only be achieved by tuning model parameters (the heat- and salt-transfer coefficients across the sub-ice-shelf boundary layer) for each model. This tuning is constrained by a desired mean melt rate in quasi-steady state under specified forcing conditions, akin to tuning the models to match observed melt rates. We compare the evolution of ocean temperature transects, melt rate, friction velocity and thermal driving between ocean models for the five ISOMIP+ experiments (Ocean0-4), which have prescribed ice-shelf topography. We find that melt patterns differ between models based on the relative importance of overturning strength and vertical mixing of temperature even when the models have been tuned to achieve similar melt rates near the grounding line. For the two MISOMIP1 experiments (IceOcean1 without dynamic calving and IceOcean2 with a simple calving parameterization), we compare temperature transects, melt rate, ice-shelf topography and grounded area across models and for several model configurations. Consistent with preliminary results from MISMIP+, we find that for a given coupled model, the use of a Coulomb-limited basal friction parameterization below grounded ice and the application of dynamic calving both significantly increase the rate of grounding-line retreat, whereas the rate of retreat appears to be less sensitive to the ice stress approximation (shallow-shelf approximation, higher-order, etc.). We show that models with similar mean melt rates, stress approximations and basal friction parameterizations produce markedly different rates of grounding-line retreat, and we investigate possible sources of these disparities (e.g. differences in coupling strategy or melt distribution).

The response of grounded ice to ocean temperature forcing in a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean cavity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2010-12-01

Ice shelves provide a pathway for the heat content of the ocean to influence continental ice sheets. Changes in the rate or location of basal melting can alter their geometry and effect changes in stress conditions at the grounding line, leading to a grounded ice response. Recent observations of ice streams and ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica have been consistent with this story. On the other hand, ice dynamics in the grounding zone control flux into the shelf and thus ice shelf geometry, which has a strong influence on the circulation in the cavity beneath the shelf. Thus the coupling between the two systems, ocean and ice sheet-ice shelf, can be quite strong. We examine the response of the ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean cavity system to changes in ocean temperature using a recently developed coupled model. The coupled model consists a 3-D ocean model (GFDL's Generalized Ocean Layered Dynamics model, or GOLD) to a two-dimensional ice sheet-ice shelf model (Goldberg et al, 2009), and allows for changing cavity geometry and a migrating grounding line. Steady states of the coupled system are found even under considerable forcing. The ice shelf morphology and basal melt rate patterns of the steady states exhibit detailed structure, and furthermore seem to be unique and robust. The relationship between temperature forcing and area-averaged melt rate is influenced by the response of ice shelf morphology to thermal forcing, and is found to be sublinear in the range of forcing considered. However, results suggest that area-averaged melt rate is not the best predictor of overall system response, as grounding line stability depends on local aspects of the basal melt field. Goldberg, D N, D M Holland and C G Schoof, 2009. Grounding line movement and ice shelf buttressing in marine ice sheets, Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surfaces, 114, F04026.

Mesoscale atmosphere ocean coupling enhances the transfer of wind energy into the ocean

PubMed Central

Byrne, D.; Münnich, M.; Frenger, I.; Gruber, N.

2016-01-01

Although it is well established that the large-scale wind drives much of the world's ocean circulation, the contribution of the wind energy input at mesoscales (10–200 km) remains poorly known. Here we use regional simulations with a coupled high-resolution atmosphere–ocean model of the South Atlantic, to show that mesoscale ocean features and, in particular, eddies can be energized by their thermodynamic interactions with the atmosphere. Owing to their sea-surface temperature anomalies affecting the wind field above them, the oceanic eddies in the presence of a large-scale wind gradient provide a mesoscale conduit for the transfer of energy into the ocean. Our simulations show that this pathway is responsible for up to 10% of the kinetic energy of the oceanic mesoscale eddy field in the South Atlantic. The conditions for this pathway to inject energy directly into the mesoscale prevail over much of the Southern Ocean north of the Polar Front. PMID:27292447

Connecting tropical climate change with Southern Ocean heat uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Yen-Ting; Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Kang, Sarah M.

2017-09-01

Under increasing greenhouse gas forcing, climate models project tropical warming that is greater in the Northern than the Southern Hemisphere, accompanied by a reduction in the northeast trade winds and a strengthening of the southeast trades. While the ocean-atmosphere coupling indicates a positive feedback, what triggers the coupled asymmetry and favors greater warming in the northern tropics remains unclear. Far away from the tropics, the Southern Ocean (SO) has been identified as the major region of ocean heat uptake. Beyond its local effect on the magnitude of sea surface warming, we show by idealized modeling experiments in a coupled slab ocean configuration that enhanced SO heat uptake has a profound global impact. This SO-to-tropics connection is consistent with southward atmospheric energy transport across the equator. Enhanced SO heat uptake results in a zonally asymmetric La-Nina-like pattern of sea surface temperature change that not only affects tropical precipitation but also has influences on the Asian and North American monsoons.

Numerical Investigations of Subduction of Eighteen Degree Water in the Subtropical Northwest Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, P.; He, R.

2016-02-01

Mode waters are upper-ocean water masses with nearly uniform water properties over a thickness of a few hundred meters. Subduction of mode waters plays an important role in changing atmospheric and oceanic long-term variability because they store "memory" of wintertime air-sea interaction. In this study, we investigated dynamic processes associated with subduction of the Eighteen Degree Water (EDW, the principal mode water) in the subtropical Northwest Atlantic during January to June 2007. Numerical simulations of the temporal and spatial evolutions of EDW were performed using both uncoupled (ocean only) and air-sea coupled configurations and results were contrasted. We find the coupled simulation produced deeper mixed layer depth, stronger eddy kinetic energy, and larger subduction areas than their counterparts in the uncoupled ocean simulation. In both configurations, mesoscale eddies enhance the total subduction and eddy-induced subduction has the same order as the mean component. Resolving strong air-sea coupling and mesoscale eddies is therefore important for understanding EDW dynamics.

Factors controlling the Indian summer monsoon onset in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sébastien; Izumo, Takeshi

2013-04-01

The observed Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) onset occurs around 30 May and 2 June, with a standard deviation of 8 to 9 days, according to the estimates. The relationship between interannual variability of the ISM onset and SSTs (Sea Surface Temperature) remains controversial. The role of Indian Ocean SSTs remain unclear, some studies have shown a driving role while other suggests a passive relation between Indian Ocean SSTs and ISM. The intrinsic impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) is also difficult to estimate from observations alone. Finally, the predictability of the ISM onset remains drastically limited by the inability of both forced and coupled model to reproduce a realistic onset date. In order to measure objectively the ISM onset, different methods have been developed based on rainfall or dynamical indices (Ananthakrishnan and Soman, 1988 ; Wang and Ho 2002 ; Joseph et al. 2006). In the study we use the Tropospheric Temperature Gradient (TTG), which is the difference between the tropospheric temperature in a northern and a southern box in the Indian areas (Xavier et al. 2007). This index measures the dynamical strength of the monsoon and provides a stable and precise onset date consistent with rainfall estimates. In the SINTEX-F2 coupled model, the ISM onset measured with the TTG is delayed of approximately 10 days and is in advance of 6 days in the atmosphere-only (ECHAM) model. The 16 days lag between atmospheric-only and coupled runs suggests a crucial role of the coupling, especially SST biases on the delayed onset. With the help of several sensitivity experiments, this study tries to identify the keys regions influencing the ISM onset. Many studies have shown a strong impact of the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean SST on the ISM onset. Nevertheless, the correction of the SSTs, based on AVHRR, in the tropical Indian Ocean only slightly corrects the delayed onset in the coupled model, which suggests an impact of SST in others regions on the ISM onset. During May and June, the main tropical SST biases in the coupled model are a strong warm bias in the Atlantic Ocean and a warm bias in the tropical Pacific Ocean, except along the equator around 140°W-100°W, where there is a cold tongue bias. The correction of the warm bias in the Atlantic Ocean slightly improves the onset date. Conversely, the correction of SST biases in the tropical and equatorial Pacific Oceans advances the onset date of 12 and 10 days, respectively, compared to the control coupled run. This result suggests that, at least in this model, the ISM onset is mainly control by the Pacific Ocean SSTs. Even if ENSO has an impact on the onset date it does not explain the delay, which is related to the biased SST mean state in the Pacific Ocean.

Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.

2018-05-01

Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

A conditional approach to determining the effect of anthropogenic climate change on very rare events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Pall, Pardeep; Zarzycki, Colin; Stone, Daithi

2016-04-01

Probabilistic extreme event attribution is especially difficult for weather events that are caused by extremely rare large-scale meteorological patterns. Traditional modeling techniques have involved using ensembles of climate models, either fully coupled or with prescribed ocean and sea ice. Ensemble sizes for the latter case ranges from several 100 to tens of thousand. However, even if the simulations are constrained by the observed ocean state, the requisite large-scale meteorological pattern may not occur frequently enough or even at all in free running climate model simulations. We present a method to ensure that simulated events similar to the observed event are modeled with enough fidelity that robust statistics can be determined given the large scale meteorological conditions. By initializing suitably constrained short term ensemble hindcasts of both the actual weather system and a counterfactual weather system where the human interference in the climate system is removed, the human contribution to the magnitude of the event can be determined. However, the change (if any) in the probability of an event of the observed magnitude is conditional not only on the state of the ocean/sea ice system but also on the prescribed initial conditions determined by the causal large scale meteorological pattern. We will discuss the implications of this technique through two examples; the 2013 Colorado flood and the 2014 Typhoon Haiyan.

Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: a skill-persistence rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Yishuai; Rong, Xinyao; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-12-01

This study investigates the factors relationship between the forecast skills for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill for sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further proved using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but could be distorted by sampling errors and non-AR1 processes. This study suggests that the so called "perfect skill" is model dependent and cannot serve as an accurate estimate of the true upper limit of real world prediction skill, unless the model can capture at least the persistence property of the observation.

Design strategies for human & earth systems modeling to meet emerging multi-scale decision support needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spak, S.; Pooley, M.

2012-12-01

The next generation of coupled human and earth systems models promises immense potential and grand challenges as they transition toward new roles as core tools for defining and living within planetary boundaries. New frontiers in community model development include not only computational, organizational, and geophysical process questions, but also the twin objectives of more meaningfully integrating the human dimension and extending applicability to informing policy decisions on a range of new and interconnected issues. We approach these challenges by posing key policy questions that require more comprehensive coupled human and geophysical models, identify necessary model and organizational processes and outputs, and work backwards to determine design criteria in response to these needs. We find that modular community earth system model design must: * seamlessly scale in space (global to urban) and time (nowcasting to paleo-studies) and fully coupled on all component systems * automatically differentiate to provide complete coupled forward and adjoint models for sensitivity studies, optimization applications, and 4DVAR assimilation across Earth and human observing systems * incorporate diagnostic tools to quantify uncertainty in couplings, and in how human activity affects them * integrate accessible community development and application with JIT-compilation, cloud computing, game-oriented interfaces, and crowd-sourced problem-solving We outline accessible near-term objectives toward these goals, and describe attempts to incorporate these design objectives in recent pilot activities using atmosphere-land-ocean-biosphere-human models (WRF-Chem, IBIS, UrbanSim) at urban and regional scales for policy applications in climate, energy, and air quality.

Synchronizing Two AGCMs via Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirtman, B. P.

2009-12-01

A new approach for fusing or synchronizing to very different Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) is described. The approach is also well suited for understand why two different coupled models have such large differences in their respective climate simulations. In the application presented here, the differences between the coupled models using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are examined. The intent is to isolate which component of the air-sea fluxes is most responsible for the differences between the coupled models and for the errors in their respective coupled simulations. The procedure is to simultaneously couple the two different atmospheric component models to a single ocean general circulation model (OGCM), in this case the Modular Ocean Model (MOM) developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Each atmospheric component model experiences the same SST produced by the OGCM, but the OGCM is simultaneously coupled to both AGCMs using a cross coupling strategy. In the first experiment, the OGCM is coupled to the heat and fresh water flux from the NCAR AGCM (Community Atmospheric Model; CAM) and the momentum flux from the COLA AGCM. Both AGCMs feel the same SST. In the second experiment, the OGCM is coupled to the heat and fresh water flux from the COLA AGCM and the momentum flux from the CAM AGCM. Again, both atmospheric component models experience the same SST. By comparing these two experimental simulations with control simulations where only one AGCM is used, it is possible to argue which of the flux components are most responsible for the differences in the simulations and their respective errors. Based on these sensitivity experiments we conclude that the tropical ocean warm bias in the COLA coupled model is due to errors in the heat flux, and that the erroneous westward shift in the tropical Pacific cold tongue minimum in the NCAR model is due errors in the momentum flux. All the coupled simulations presented here have warm biases along the eastern boundary of the tropical oceans suggesting that the problem is common to both AGCMs. In terms of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, the CAM momentum flux is responsible for the erroneous westward extension of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and errors in the COLA momentum flux cause the erroneous eastward migration of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. These conclusions depend on assuming that the error due to the OGCM can be neglected.

Coupled Modes over Indian Ocean at Sub-seasonal time Scales and its Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, E.; Kirtman, B. P.

2014-12-01

Sub-seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean, such as Madden-Julian Oscillation impacts weather and climate globally. However, the prediction of tropical sub-seasonal variability (TSV) remains a challenge, and understanding air-sea interactions on TSV time-scales is likely to be an important part of the prediction problem. The purpose of this paper is to examine the predictability of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. The analysis emphasizes on variability associated with coupled air-sea interactions in observational estimates, and how well these coupled modes are simulated and predicted within the context of a 30-year retrospective forecast experiment with a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean coupled model. The analysis shows that Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the Indian Ocean tend to precede precipitation anomalies by 7-11 days with maximum amplitude over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal for summer and along the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) region for winter. Though these coupled modes are captured by the models, the forecasts fail to predict its evolution. Based on the diagnosis of these coupled modes, we introduce a SCTR-SST index and an index that measures the modulation of the low-frequency amplitude (LFAM) of sub-seasonal SSTA variability over SCTR as a way to predict the coupled modes. Based on correlation with the observed variability, SCTR-SST has forecast skill of about 45 days over the Indian Ocean. However the sub-seasonal SSTAs in the predictions and the observational estimates do not have any direct ENSO tele-connection. In contrast, the LFAM of the sub-seasonal SSTA variance over SCTR is strongly correlated with ENSO, suggesting enhanced sub-seasonal variance on seasonal time-scales is potentially predictable.

Monsoons and ITCZ in TRACMIP, the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent - Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasutti, M.; Voigt, A.; Scheff, J.

2016-12-01

TRACMIP consists of a set of five experiments performed by an ensemble of GCMs and conceived as a link in the hierarchy between the CFMIP/CMIP5 Aqua experiments and the CMIP5 comprehensive simulations. The basic configuration is an aquaplanet AGCM coupled to a slab ocean. By using interactive sea-surface temperatures and seasonally-varying insolation TRACMIP fills the gap between Aquaplanets with prescribed SSTs and fully-coupled realistic CMIP5 simulations. Adding to the basic Aquaplanet configuration a highly-idealized tropical continent allows the investigation of the role of zonal asymmetries in the dynamics of the ITCZ and of the source of the observed differences between land convection and monsoon circulations on one hand, and oceanic convection in the ITCZ and the Warm Pool on the other. Finally, by including both key forcings of the future (greenhouse gases) and of the Holocene (orbital changes in insolation), TRACMIP contributes to the "past to future (P2F)" efforts to connect the climate response to different forcings via a basic understanding of the mechanisms at play. TRACMIP includes the participation of both CMIP5 comprehensive climate models and a simplified model that neglects cloud and water-vapor radiative feedbacks, thus allowing a more direct connection between GCMs results and theoretical studies of tropical rain belt dynamics. We will present preliminary results from the ensemble, aiming to examine the mechanisms controlling tropical precipitation in the context of forced variability. First and foremost, we are interested in the largest forced variation: the annual cycle. We will draw out the similarities and the distinctions between the climatologies of the oceanic and continental rain bands, study the ways in which the two interact with each other, and investigate the extent to which established zonal-mean ITCZ frameworks contain information about regional rainfall characteristics. Second, we will investigate the response to quadrupling the CO2 concentration and to orbital changes, comparing the multi-model mean response and the inter-model scatter to responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, paying special attention to the way in which land responds differently than ocean and even, with its presence, modifies the response of the oceanic ITCZ to external forcings.

Observations and Modeling of Turbulent Air-Sea Coupling in Coastal and Strongly Forced Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Suslow, David G.

The turbulent fluxes of momentum, mass, and energy across the ocean-atmosphere boundary are fundamental to our understanding of a myriad of geophysical processes, such as wind-wave generation, oceanic circulation, and air-sea gas transfer. In order to better understand these fluxes, empirical relationships were developed to quantify the interfacial exchange rates in terms of easily observed parameters (e.g., wind speed). However, mounting evidence suggests that these empirical formulae are only valid over the relatively narrow parametric space, i.e. open ocean conditions in light to moderate winds. Several near-surface processes have been observed to cause significant variance in the air-sea fluxes not predicted by the conventional functions, such as a heterogeneous surfaces, swell waves, and wave breaking. Further study is needed to fully characterize how these types of processes can modulate the interfacial exchange; in order to achieve this, a broad investigation into air-sea coupling was undertaken. The primary focus of this work was to use a combination of field and laboratory observations and numerical modeling, in regimes where conventional theories would be expected to breakdown, namely: the nearshore and in very high winds. These seemingly disparate environments represent the marine atmospheric boundary layer at its physical limit. In the nearshore, the convergence of land, air, and sea in a depth-limited domain marks the transition from a marine to a terrestrial boundary layer. Under extreme winds, the physical nature of the boundary layer remains unknown as an intermediate substrate layer, sea spray, develops between the atmosphere and ocean surface. At these ends of the MABL physical spectrum, direct measurements of the near-surface processes were made and directly related to local sources of variance. Our results suggest that the conventional treatment of air-sea fluxes in terms of empirical relationships developed from a relatively narrow set of environmental conditions do not generalize to the coastal and extreme wind environments. This body of work represents a multi-faceted approach to understanding physical air-sea interactions in varied regimes and using a wide array of investigatory methods.

Decadal-Scale Response of the Antarctic Ice sheet to a Warming Ocean using the POPSICLES Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Cornford, S. L.; Price, S. F.; Ng, E. G.; Collins, W.

2015-12-01

We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period from 1990 to 2010. We use the CORE v. 2 interannual forcing data to force the ocean model. Simulations are performed at 0.1o(~5 km) ocean resolution with adaptive ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m to adequately resolve the grounding line dynamics. We discuss the effect of improved ocean mixing and subshelf bathymetry (vs. the standard Bedmap2 bathymetry) on the behavior of the coupled system, comparing time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported in the literature. We also present seasonal variability and decadal melting trends from several Antarctic regions, along with the response of the ice shelves and the consequent dynamic response of the grounded ice sheet.POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program, and the BISICLES ice-sheet model. POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells and the commonly used three-equation boundary layer physics. Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations. BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3d) and realistic configurations.The figure shows the BISICLES-computed vertically-integrated grounded ice velocity field 5 years into a 20-year coupled full-continent Antarctic-Southern-Ocean simulation. Submarine melt rates are painted onto the surface of the floating ice shelves. Grounding lines are shown in green.

The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of multidecadal variability of the AMOC, the AMO, and Northern Hemisphere climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delworth, T. L.; Zeng, F. J.; Yang, X.; Zhang, L.

2017-12-01

We use suites of simulations with coupled ocean-atmosphere models to show that multidecadal changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can drive multidecadal changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with associated hemispheric climatic impacts. These impacts include rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, hemispheric temperature, and modulation of Atlantic hurricane activity. We use models that incorporate either a fully dynamic ocean or a simple slab ocean to explore the role of ocean dynamics and ocean-atmosphere interactions. A positive phase of the NAO is associated with strengthened westerly winds over the North Atlantic. These winds extract more heat than normal from the subpolar ocean, thereby increasing upper ocean density, deepwater formation, and the strength of the AMOC and associated poleward ocean heat transport. This warming leads to a positive phase of the AMO. The enhanced oceanic heat transport extends to the Arctic where it causes a reduction of Arctic sea ice. Large-scale atmospheric warming reduces vertical wind shear in the tropical North Atlantic, creating an environment more favorable for tropical storms. We use models to further show that observed multidecadal variations of the NAO over the 20th and early 21st centuries may have led to multidecadal variations of simulated AMOC and the AMO. Specifically, negative NAO values from the late 1960s through the early 1980s led to a weakened AMOC/cold North Atlantic, whereas increasing NAO values from the late 1980s through the late 1990s increased the model AMOC and led to a positive (warm) phase of the AMO. The warm phase contributed to increases in tropical storm activity and decreases in Arctic sea ice after the mid 1990s. Ocean dynamics are essential for translating the observed NAO variations into ocean heat content variations for the extratropical North Atlantic, but appear less important in the tropical North Atlantic. The observed AMO has substantial SST amplitude in both the tropical and extratropical North Atlantic. These results suggest that additional factors, such as cloud feedback, dust feedback, and anthropogenic radiative forcing, may play a crucial role for the tropical expression of the AMO.

Influence of air-sea coupling on Indian Ocean tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lengaigne, Matthieu; Neetu, S.; Samson, Guillaume; Vialard, Jérôme; Krishnamohan, K. S.; Masson, Sébastien; Jullien, Swen; Suresh, I.; Menkes, Christophe E.

2018-02-01

This paper assesses the impact of air-sea coupling on Indian Ocean tropical cyclones (TCs) by comparing a 20-year long simulation of a ¼° regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with a twin experiment, where the atmospheric component is forced by sea surface temperature from the coupled simulation. The coupled simulation reproduces the observed spatio-temporal TCs distribution and TC-induced surface cooling reasonably well, but overestimates the number of TCs. Air-sea coupling does not affect the cyclogenesis spatial distribution but reduces the number of TCs by 20% and yields a better-resolved bimodal seasonal distribution in the northern hemisphere. Coupling also affects intensity distribution, inducing a four-fold decrease in the proportion of intense TCs (Cat-2 and stronger). Air-sea coupling damps TCs growth through a reduction of inner-core upward enthalpy fluxes due to the TC-induced cooling. This reduction is particularly large for the most intense TCs of the northern Indian Ocean (up to 250 W m-2), due to higher ambient surface temperatures and larger TC-induced cooling there. The negative feedback of air-sea coupling on strongest TCs is mainly associated with slow-moving storms, which spend more time over the cold wake they induce. Sensitivity experiments using a different convective parameterization yield qualitatively similar results, with a larger ( 65%) reduction in the number of TCs. Because of their relatively coarse resolution (¼°), both set of experiments however fail to reproduce the most intense observed TCs. Further studies with finer resolution models in the Bay of Bengal will be needed to assess the expectedly large impact of air-sea coupling on those intense and deadly TCs.

Sensitivity of the Younger Dryas climate to changes in orbtial, greenhouse gas, and freshwater forcing in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughlett, T. M.; Winguth, A. M. E.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; He, F.

2016-12-01

The Younger Dryas cooling event ( 12,900 years before present) was the most recent abrupt climate change in the geologic record where climate for the Northern Hemisphere returned to a near-glacial state. The cause of this cooling event is widely controversial, and no consensus has been found as to why the onset of the cooling occurred. Of the several hypotheses proposed, the freshening of the North Atlantic Ocean due to meltwater discharge from the retreating Lake Agassiz and subsequent changes in Atlantic meridional oceanic circulation (AMOC) is the most widely accepted one. In this study, the Community Earth System Model version 1 was used to perform sensitivity experiments to test how the AMOC responds to a freshwater discharge into the Northern Atlantic Ocean over the course of 1,000 years. This study is the first fully coupled, moderate-resolution simulation that implements a 13.1ka ice sheet (ICE-5G) along with Younger Dryas boundary and initial conditions. With the addition of the 13.1ka ice sheet and a 0.3 Sverdrup (Sv) freshwater discharge into the Northern Atlantic Ocean, the AMOC reduces by approximately 20 Sv, coming to a substantially slowed-down state of approximately 5 Sv. This reduction of the AMOC causes a decrease in surface air temperature of approximately 15 °C, which is in agreement with surface air temperature reconstructions from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2. Overall, the simulation presented in this study accurately represents the climatic state of the Younger Dryas cooling event.

Iron limitation of microbial phosphorus acquisition in the tropical North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Browning, Thomas; Achterberg, Eric; Yong, Jaw Chuen; Rapp, Insa; Utermann, Caroline; Engel, Anja; Moore, Mark

2017-04-01

Growth-limitation of marine phytoplankton by fixed nitrogen (N) has been demonstrated for most of the low-latitude oceans; however, in the (sub)tropical North Atlantic enhanced N2 fixation leads to secondary/(co-)limitation by phosphorus (P). The dissolved organic P pool is rarely fully depleted in the modern ocean and potentially represents a substantial additional P source. Microbes can use a variety of alkaline phosphatase enzymes to access P from a major fraction of this pool. In contrast to the relatively well studied PhoA family of alkaline phosphatases that utilize zinc (Zn) as a cofactor, the recent discovery of iron (Fe) as a cofactor in the more widespread PhoX[1] and PhoD[2] enzymes imply potential for a complex, biochemically-dependant interplay between oceanic Zn, Fe and P cycles. Here we demonstrate enhanced natural community alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) following Fe amendment within the low Zn and moderately low Fe western tropical North Atlantic. In contrast, beneath the Saharan dust plume in the Eastern Atlantic no APA response to trace metal addition was observed. This is the first demonstration of intermittent Fe limitation of microbial P acquisition, providing an additional facet in the argument for Fe control of the coupling between oceanic N and P cycles. 1. Yong, S. C. et al. A complex iron-calcium cofactor catalyzing phosphotransfer chemistry. Science 345, 1170-3 (2014). 2. Rodriguez, F. et al. Crystal structure of the Bacillus subtilis phosphodiesterase PhoD reveals an iron and calcium-containing active site. J. Biol. Chem. 289, 30889-30899 (2014).

Modeling Global Ocean Biogeochemistry With Physical Data Assimilation: A Pragmatic Solution to the Equatorial Instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong-Yeon; Stock, Charles A.; Yang, Xiaosong; Dunne, John P.; Rosati, Anthony; John, Jasmin; Zhang, Shaoqing

2018-03-01

Reliable estimates of historical and current biogeochemistry are essential for understanding past ecosystem variability and predicting future changes. Efforts to translate improved physical ocean state estimates into improved biogeochemical estimates, however, are hindered by high biogeochemical sensitivity to transient momentum imbalances that arise during physical data assimilation. Most notably, the breakdown of geostrophic constraints on data assimilation in equatorial regions can lead to spurious upwelling, resulting in excessive equatorial productivity and biogeochemical fluxes. This hampers efforts to understand and predict the biogeochemical consequences of El Niño and La Niña. We develop a strategy to robustly integrate an ocean biogeochemical model with an ensemble coupled-climate data assimilation system used for seasonal to decadal global climate prediction. Addressing spurious vertical velocities requires two steps. First, we find that tightening constraints on atmospheric data assimilation maintains a better equatorial wind stress and pressure gradient balance. This reduces spurious vertical velocities, but those remaining still produce substantial biogeochemical biases. The remainder is addressed by imposing stricter fidelity to model dynamics over data constraints near the equator. We determine an optimal choice of model-data weights that removed spurious biogeochemical signals while benefitting from off-equatorial constraints that still substantially improve equatorial physical ocean simulations. Compared to the unconstrained control run, the optimally constrained model reduces equatorial biogeochemical biases and markedly improves the equatorial subsurface nitrate concentrations and hypoxic area. The pragmatic approach described herein offers a means of advancing earth system prediction in parallel with continued data assimilation advances aimed at fully considering equatorial data constraints.

Assessment of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole in the CESM—Impacts of atmospheric physics and model resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhixiong; Tang, Youmin; Chen, Dake; Zhou, Lei; Li, Xiaojing; Lian, Tao; Ul Islam, Siraj

2016-12-01

This study examines the possible impacts of coupling processes on simulations of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Emphasis is placed on the atmospheric model resolution and physics. Five experiments were conducted for this purpose, including one control run of the ocean-only model, four coupled experiments using two different versions of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4 and CAM5) and two different resolutions. The results show that the control run could effectively simulate various features of the IOD. The coupled experiments run at the higher resolution yielded more realistic IOD period and intensity than their counterparts at the low resolution. The coupled experiments using CAM5 generally showed a better simulation skill in the tropical Indian SST climatology and phase-locking than those using CAM4, but the wind anomalies were stronger and the IOD period were longer in the former experiments than in the latter. In all coupled experiments, the IOD intensity was much stronger than the observed intensity, which is attributable to wind-thermocline depth feedback and thermocline depth-subsurface temperature feedback. The CAM5 physics seems beneficial for the simulation of summer rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the CAM4 physics tends to produce less biases over the western equatorial Indian Ocean, whereas the higher resolution tends to generate unrealistically strong meridional winds. The IOD-ENSO relationship was captured reasonably well in coupled experiments, with improvements in CAM5 relative to CAM4. However, the teleconnection of the IOD-Indian summer monsoon and ENSO-Indian summer monsoon was not realistically simulated in all experiments.

Ocean eddies and climate predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirtman, Ben P.; Perlin, Natalie; Siqueira, Leo

2017-12-01

A suite of coupled climate model simulations and experiments are used to examine how resolved mesoscale ocean features affect aspects of climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability. In combination with control simulations, experiments with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy are used to further amplify the role of the oceanic mesoscale field and the associated air-sea feedbacks and predictability. The basic intent of the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is to reduce the atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface, allowing an assessment of how noise affects the variability, and in this case, it is also used to diagnose predictability from the perspective of signal-to-noise ratios. The climate variability is assessed from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios, and it is shown that, unsurprisingly, mesoscale variability significantly increases SST variance. Perhaps surprising is the fact that the presence of mesoscale ocean features even further enhances the SST variance in the interactive ensemble simulation beyond what would be expected from simple linear arguments. Changes in the air-sea coupling between simulations are assessed using pointwise convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations and again emphasize how the oceanic mesoscale alters the local association between convective rainfall and SST. Understanding the possible relationships between the SST-forced signal and the weather noise is critically important in climate predictability. We use the interactive ensemble simulations to diagnose this relationship, and we find that the presence of mesoscale ocean features significantly enhances this link particularly in ocean eddy rich regions. Finally, we use signal-to-noise ratios to show that the ocean mesoscale activity increases model estimated predictability in terms of convective precipitation and atmospheric upper tropospheric circulation.

Ocean eddies and climate predictability.

PubMed

Kirtman, Ben P; Perlin, Natalie; Siqueira, Leo

2017-12-01

A suite of coupled climate model simulations and experiments are used to examine how resolved mesoscale ocean features affect aspects of climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability. In combination with control simulations, experiments with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy are used to further amplify the role of the oceanic mesoscale field and the associated air-sea feedbacks and predictability. The basic intent of the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is to reduce the atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface, allowing an assessment of how noise affects the variability, and in this case, it is also used to diagnose predictability from the perspective of signal-to-noise ratios. The climate variability is assessed from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios, and it is shown that, unsurprisingly, mesoscale variability significantly increases SST variance. Perhaps surprising is the fact that the presence of mesoscale ocean features even further enhances the SST variance in the interactive ensemble simulation beyond what would be expected from simple linear arguments. Changes in the air-sea coupling between simulations are assessed using pointwise convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations and again emphasize how the oceanic mesoscale alters the local association between convective rainfall and SST. Understanding the possible relationships between the SST-forced signal and the weather noise is critically important in climate predictability. We use the interactive ensemble simulations to diagnose this relationship, and we find that the presence of mesoscale ocean features significantly enhances this link particularly in ocean eddy rich regions. Finally, we use signal-to-noise ratios to show that the ocean mesoscale activity increases model estimated predictability in terms of convective precipitation and atmospheric upper tropospheric circulation.

Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwinger, Jorg; Goris, Nadine; Tjiputra, Jerry F.

Idealised and hindcast simulations performed with the stand-alone ocean carbon-cycle configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-OC) are described and evaluated. We present simulation results of three different model configurations (two different model versions at different grid resolutions) using two different atmospheric forcing data sets. Model version NorESM-OC1 corresponds to the version that is included in the NorESM-ME1 fully coupled model, which participated in CMIP5. The main update between NorESM-OC1 and NorESM-OC1.2 is the addition of two new options for the treatment of sinking particles. We find that using a constant sinking speed, which has been the standard in NorESM'smore » ocean carbon cycle module HAMOCC (HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), does not transport enough particulate organic carbon (POC) into the deep ocean below approximately 2000 m depth. The two newly implemented parameterisations, a particle aggregation scheme with prognostic sinking speed, and a simpler scheme that uses a linear increase in the sinking speed with depth, provide better agreement with observed POC fluxes. Additionally, reduced deep ocean biases of oxygen and remineralised phosphate indicate a better performance of the new parameterisations. For model version 1.2, a re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation has been performed, which (i) reduces previously too high primary production at high latitudes, (ii) consequently improves model results for surface nutrients, and (iii) reduces alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon biases at low latitudes. We use hindcast simulations with prescribed observed and constant (pre-industrial) atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to derive the past and contemporary ocean carbon sink. As a result, for the period 1990–1999 we find an average ocean carbon uptake ranging from 2.01 to 2.58 Pg C yr -1 depending on model version, grid resolution, and atmospheric forcing data set.« less

Evaluation of NorESM-OC (versions 1 and 1.2), the ocean carbon-cycle stand-alone configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1)

DOE PAGES

Schwinger, Jorg; Goris, Nadine; Tjiputra, Jerry F.; ...

2016-08-02

Idealised and hindcast simulations performed with the stand-alone ocean carbon-cycle configuration of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-OC) are described and evaluated. We present simulation results of three different model configurations (two different model versions at different grid resolutions) using two different atmospheric forcing data sets. Model version NorESM-OC1 corresponds to the version that is included in the NorESM-ME1 fully coupled model, which participated in CMIP5. The main update between NorESM-OC1 and NorESM-OC1.2 is the addition of two new options for the treatment of sinking particles. We find that using a constant sinking speed, which has been the standard in NorESM'smore » ocean carbon cycle module HAMOCC (HAMburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), does not transport enough particulate organic carbon (POC) into the deep ocean below approximately 2000 m depth. The two newly implemented parameterisations, a particle aggregation scheme with prognostic sinking speed, and a simpler scheme that uses a linear increase in the sinking speed with depth, provide better agreement with observed POC fluxes. Additionally, reduced deep ocean biases of oxygen and remineralised phosphate indicate a better performance of the new parameterisations. For model version 1.2, a re-tuning of the ecosystem parameterisation has been performed, which (i) reduces previously too high primary production at high latitudes, (ii) consequently improves model results for surface nutrients, and (iii) reduces alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon biases at low latitudes. We use hindcast simulations with prescribed observed and constant (pre-industrial) atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to derive the past and contemporary ocean carbon sink. As a result, for the period 1990–1999 we find an average ocean carbon uptake ranging from 2.01 to 2.58 Pg C yr -1 depending on model version, grid resolution, and atmospheric forcing data set.« less

Seychelles coral record of changes in sea surface temperature bimodality in the western Indian Ocean from the Mid-Holocene to the present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zinke, J.; Pfeiffer, M.; Park, W.; Schneider, B.; Reuning, L.; Dullo, W.-Chr.; Camoin, G. F.; Mangini, A.; Schroeder-Ritzrau, A.; Garbe-Schönberg, D.; Davies, G. R.

2014-08-01

We report fossil coral records from the Seychelles comprising individual time slices of 14-20 sclerochronological years between 2 and 6.2 kyr BP to reconstruct changes in the seasonal cycle of western Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) compared to the present (1990-2003). These reconstructions allowed us to link changes in the SST bimodality to orbital changes, which were causing a reorganization of the seasonal insolation pattern. Our results reveal the lowest seasonal SST range in the Mid-Holocene (6.2-5.2 kyr BP) and around 2 kyr BP, while the highest range is observed around 4.6 kyr BP and between 1990 and 2003. The season of maximum temperature shifts from austral spring (September to November) to austral autumn (March to May), following changes in seasonal insolation over the past 6 kyr. However, the changes in SST bimodality do not linearly follow the insolation seasonality. For example, the 5.2 and 6.2 kyr BP corals show only subtle SST differences in austral spring and autumn. We use paleoclimate simulations of a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to compare with proxy data for the Mid-Holocene around 6 kyr BP. The model results show that in the Mid-Holocene the austral winter and spring seasons in the western Indian Ocean were warmer while austral summer was cooler. This is qualitatively consistent with the coral data from 6.2 to 5.2 kyr BP, which shows a similar reduction in the seasonal amplitude compared to the present day. However, the pattern of the seasonal SST cycle in the model appears to follow the changes in insolation more directly than indicated by the corals. Our results highlight the importance of ocean-atmosphere interactions for Indian Ocean SST seasonality throughout the Holocene. In order to understand Holocene climate variability in the countries surrounding the Indian Ocean, we need a much more comprehensive analysis of seasonally resolved archives from the tropical Indian Ocean. Insolation data alone only provides an incomplete picture.

Oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Rey, J.; Bopp, L.; Gehlen, M.; Tagliabue, A.; Gruber, N.

2014-12-01

The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known on how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. We implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production, which differ primarily at low oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12% in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 Tg N yr-1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs), i.e., in the Eastern Tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production associated primarily with denitrification. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around -0.009 W m-2 K-1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assesment for a compensation between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next generation of Earth System Models.

Framework of distributed coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Yuanqiao; Huang, Liwen; Deng, Jian; Zhang, Jinfeng; Wang, Sisi; Wang, Lijun

2006-05-01

In order to research the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean as well as their important role in the intensive weather systems of coastal areas, and to improve the forecasting ability of the hazardous weather processes of coastal areas, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system has been developed. The agent-based environment framework for linking models allows flexible and dynamic information exchange between models. For the purpose of flexibility, portability and scalability, the framework of the whole system takes a multi-layer architecture that includes a user interface layer, computational layer and service-enabling layer. The numerical experiment presented in this paper demonstrates the performance of the distributed coupled modeling system.

Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

2017-04-01

The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

Incorporating Prognostic Marine Nitrogen Fixers and Related Bio-Physical Feedbacks in an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulsen, H.; Ilyina, T.; Six, K. D.

2016-02-01

Marine nitrogen fixers play a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycles by providing a major source of `new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Furthermore, nitrogen fixers may regionally have a direct impact on ocean physics and hence the climate system as they form extensive surface mats which can increase light absorption and surface albedo and reduce the momentum input by wind. Resulting alterations in temperature and stratification may feed back on nitrogen fixers' growth itself.We incorporate nitrogen fixers as a prognostic 3D tracer in the ocean biogeochemical component (HAMOCC) of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model and assess for the first time the impact of related bio-physical feedbacks on biogeochemistry and the climate system.The model successfully reproduces recent estimates of global nitrogen fixation rates, as well as the observed distribution of nitrogen fixers, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. First results indicate that including bio-physical feedbacks has considerable effects on the upper ocean physics in this region. Light absorption by nitrogen fixers leads locally to surface heating, subsurface cooling, and mixed layer depth shoaling in the subtropical gyres. As a result, equatorial upwelling is increased, leading to surface cooling at the equator. This signal is damped by the effect of the reduced wind stress due to the presence of cyanobacteria mats, which causes a reduction in the wind-driven circulation, and hence a reduction in equatorial upwelling. The increase in surface albedo due to nitrogen fixers has only inconsiderable effects. The response of nitrogen fixers' growth to the alterations in temperature and stratification varies regionally. Simulations with the fully coupled Earth system model are in progress to assess the implications of the biologically induced changes in upper ocean physics for the global climate system.

A Numerical Study of Tropical Sea-Air Interactions Using a Cloud Resolving Model Coupled with an Ocean Mixed-Layer Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shie, Chung-Lin; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Johnson, Dan; Simpson, Joanne; Li, Xiaofan; Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Coupling a cloud resolving model (CRM) with an ocean mixed layer (OML) model can provide a powerful tool for better understanding impacts of atmospheric precipitation on sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. The objective of this study is twofold. First, by using the three dimensional (3-D) CRM-simulated (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE) diabatic source terms, radiation (longwave and shortwave), surface fluxes (sensible and latent heat, and wind stress), and precipitation as input for the OML model, the respective impact of individual component on upper ocean heat and salt budgets are investigated. Secondly, a two-way air-sea interaction between tropical atmospheric climates (involving atmospheric radiative-convective processes) and upper ocean boundary layer is also examined using a coupled two dimensional (2-D) GCE and OML model. Results presented here, however, only involve the first aspect. Complete results will be presented at the conference.

Tsunami Generation from Asteroid Airburst and Ocean Impact and Van Dorn Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Darrel

2016-01-01

Airburst - In the simulations explored energy from the airburst couples very weakly with the water making tsunami dangerous over a shorter distance than the blast for asteroid sizes up to the maximum expected size that will still airburst (approx.250MT). Future areas of investigation: - Low entry angle airbursts create more cylindrical blasts and might couple more efficiently - Bursts very close to the ground will increase coupling - Inclusion of thermosphere (>80km altitude) may show some plume collapse effects over a large area although with much less pressure center dot Ocean Impact - Asteroid creates large cavity in ocean. Cavity backfills creating central jet. Oscillation between the cavity and jet sends out tsunami wave packet. - For deep ocean impact waves are deep water waves (Phase speed = 2x Group speed) - If the tsunami propagation and inundation calculations are correct for the small (<250MT) asteroids in these simulations where they impact deep ocean basins, the resulting tsunami is not a significant hazard unless particularly close to vulnerable communities. Future work: - Shallow ocean impact. - Effect of continental shelf and beach profiles - Tsunami vs. blast damage radii for impacts close to populated areas - Larger asteroids below presumed threshold of global effects (Ø200 - 800m).

The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

PubMed Central

Meijers, A. J. S.

2014-01-01

The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercomparison in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Here, we review recent analyses of the historical and projected wind, sea ice, circulation and bulk properties of the Southern Ocean in the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Improvements to the models include higher resolutions, more complex and better-tuned parametrizations of ocean mixing, and improved biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric chemistry. CMIP5 largely reproduces the findings of CMIP3, but with smaller inter-model spreads and biases. By the end of the twenty-first century, mid-latitude wind stresses increase and shift polewards. All water masses warm, and intermediate waters freshen, while bottom waters increase in salinity. Surface mixed layers shallow, warm and freshen, whereas sea ice decreases. The upper overturning circulation intensifies, whereas bottom water formation is reduced. Significant disagreement exists between models for the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength, for reasons that are as yet unclear. PMID:24891395

Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungclaus, J. H.; Fischer, N.; Haak, H.; Lohmann, K.; Marotzke, J.; Matei, D.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Notz, D.; von Storch, J. S.

2013-06-01

MPI-ESM is a new version of the global Earth system model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. This paper describes the ocean state and circulation as well as basic aspects of variability in simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The performance of the ocean/sea-ice model MPIOM, coupled to a new version of the atmosphere model ECHAM6 and modules for land surface and ocean biogeochemistry, is assessed for two model versions with different grid resolution in the ocean. The low-resolution configuration has a nominal resolution of 1.5°, whereas the higher resolution version features a quasiuniform, eddy-permitting global resolution of 0.4°. The paper focuses on important oceanic features, such as surface temperature and salinity, water mass distribution, large-scale circulation, and heat and freshwater transports. In general, these integral quantities are simulated well in comparison with observational estimates, and improvements in comparison with the predecessor system are documented; for example, for tropical variability and sea ice representation. Introducing an eddy-permitting grid configuration in the ocean leads to improvements, in particular, in the representation of interior water mass properties in the Atlantic and in the representation of important ocean currents, such as the Agulhas and Equatorial current systems. In general, however, there are more similarities than differences between the two grid configurations, and several shortcomings, known from earlier versions of the coupled model, prevail.

Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Xu, Peng; Xu, Tengfei

2017-01-01

An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.

Assessing Extratropical Influence on Tropical Climatology and Variability with Regional Coupled Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, F.; Liu, Z.; Liu, Y.; Zhang, S.; Jacob, R. L.

2017-12-01

The Regional Coupled Data Assimilation (RCDA) method is introduced as a tool to study coupled climate dynamics and teleconnections. The RCDA method is built on an ensemble-based coupled data assimilation (CDA) system in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The RCDA method limits the data assimilation to the desired model components (e.g. atmosphere) and regions (e.g. the extratropics), and studies the ensemble-mean model response (e.g. tropical response to "observed" extratropical atmospheric variability). When applied to the extratropical influence on tropical climate, the RCDA method has shown some unique advantages, namely the combination of a fully coupled model, real-world observations and an ensemble approach. Tropical variability (e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO) and climatology (e.g. asymmetric Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ) were initially thought to be determined mostly by local forcing and ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropics. Since late 20th century, numerous studies have showed that extratropical forcing could affect, or even largely determine some aspects of the tropical climate. Due to the coupled nature of the climate system, however, the challenge of determining and further quantifying the causality of extratropical forcing on the tropical climate remains. Using the RCDA method, we have demonstrated significant control of extratropical atmospheric forcing on ENSO variability in a CGCM, both with model-generated and real-world observation datasets. The RCDA method has also shown robust extratropical impact on the tropical double-ITCZ bias in a CGCM. The RCDA method has provided the first systematic and quantitative assessment of extratropical influence on tropical climatology and variability by incorporating real world observations in a CGCM.

Studies of regional-scale climate variability and change. Hidden Markov models and coupled ocean-atmosphere modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, A. W.

2008-10-14

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding, in which we had developed a twin approach of probabilistic network (PN) models (sometimes called dynamic Bayesian networks) and intermediate-complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere models (ICMs) to identify the predictable modes of climate variability and to investigate their impacts on the regional scale. We had developed a family of PNs (similar to Hidden Markov Models) to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale GCM seasonal predictions. Using an idealized atmospheric model, we had established a novel mechanism through which ocean-induced sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies might influencemore » large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on interannual and longer time scales; we had found similar patterns in a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model. The goal of the this continuation project was to build on these ICM results and PN model development to address prediction of rainfall and temperature statistics at the local scale, associated with global climate variability and change, and to investigate the impact of the latter on coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling together with the development of associated software; new intermediate coupled models; a new methodology of inverse modeling for linking ICMs with observations and GCM results; and, observational studies of decadal and multi-decadal natural climate results, informed by ICM results.« less

Accounting for Age Uncertainty in Growth Modeling, the Case Study of Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares) of the Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Dortel, Emmanuelle; Massiot-Granier, Félix; Rivot, Etienne; Million, Julien; Hallier, Jean-Pierre; Morize, Eric; Munaron, Jean-Marie; Bousquet, Nicolas; Chassot, Emmanuel

2013-01-01

Age estimates, typically determined by counting periodic growth increments in calcified structures of vertebrates, are the basis of population dynamics models used for managing exploited or threatened species. In fisheries research, the use of otolith growth rings as an indicator of fish age has increased considerably in recent decades. However, otolith readings include various sources of uncertainty. Current ageing methods, which converts an average count of rings into age, only provide periodic age estimates in which the range of uncertainty is fully ignored. In this study, we describe a hierarchical model for estimating individual ages from repeated otolith readings. The model was developed within a Bayesian framework to explicitly represent the sources of uncertainty associated with age estimation, to allow for individual variations and to include knowledge on parameters from expertise. The performance of the proposed model was examined through simulations, and then it was coupled to a two-stanza somatic growth model to evaluate the impact of the age estimation method on the age composition of commercial fisheries catches. We illustrate our approach using the saggital otoliths of yellowfin tuna of the Indian Ocean collected through large-scale mark-recapture experiments. The simulation performance suggested that the ageing error model was able to estimate the ageing biases and provide accurate age estimates, regardless of the age of the fish. Coupled with the growth model, this approach appeared suitable for modeling the growth of Indian Ocean yellowfin and is consistent with findings of previous studies. The simulations showed that the choice of the ageing method can strongly affect growth estimates with subsequent implications for age-structured data used as inputs for population models. Finally, our modeling approach revealed particularly useful to reflect uncertainty around age estimates into the process of growth estimation and it can be applied to any study relying on age estimation. PMID:23637773

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2016-12-01

As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

Genesis of mud volcano fluids in the Gulf of Cadiz - A novel model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Christopher; Burwicz, Ewa; Hensen, Christian; Martínez-Loriente, Sara; Wallmann, Klaus; Gràcia, Eulàlia

2017-04-01

Mud volcanism and fluid seepage are common phenomena on the continental margin in the Gulf of Cadiz, North East Atlantic Ocean. Over the past 2 decades more than 50 mud volcanoes have been discovered and investigated interdisciplinarily. Mud volcano fluids emanating at these sites are sourced at great depths and migration is often mediated by strike slip faults in a seismically active region. The geochemical signals of the mud volcano fluids are affected by widespread various processes such as clay mineral dehydration, but also the recrystallization of ancient carbonate rocks and the alteration of oceanic crust have been suggested (Hensen et al., 2015). We developed a novel fully-coupled, basin-scale, reaction-transport model with an adaptive numerical mesh to simulate the fluid genesis in this region. An advantage of this model is the coupling of a realistic geophysical and geochemical approach, considering a growing sediment column over time together with instant compaction of sediments as well as diffusion and advection of dissolved pore water species and chemical reactions. In this proof of concept study, we looked at various scenarios to identify the processes of fluid genesis for 4 mud volcanoes, representing combinations in different subsurface settings. We can reproduce the fluid signatures (chloride, strontium, 87Sr/86Sr) of all mud volcanoes. Furthermore, we can give additional evidence that alteration of oceanic crust by fluid flow is a likely process affecting the fluid composition. Hensen, C., Scholz, F., Nuzzo, M., Valadares, V., Gràcia, E., Terrinha, P., Liebetrau, V., Kaul, N., Silva, S., Martínez-Loriente, S., Bartolome, R., Piñero, E., Magalhães, V. H., Schmidt, M., Weise, S. M., Cunha, M., Hilario, A., Perea, H., Rovelli, L., and Lackschewitz, K., 2015, Strike-slip faults mediate the rise of crustal-derived fluids and mud volcanism in the deep sea: Geology, v. 43, no. 4, p. 339-342.

An equilibrium model for the coupled ocean-atmosphere boundary layer in the tropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Betts, Alan K.

1991-01-01

An atmospheric convective boundary layer (CBL) model is coupled to an ocean mixed-layer (OML) model in order to study the equilibrium state of the coupled system in the tropics, particularly in the Pacific region. The equilibrium state of the coupled system is solved as a function of sea-surface temperature (SST) for a given surface wind and as a function of surface wind for a given SST. It is noted that in both cases, the depth of the CBL and OML increases and the upwelling below the OML decreases, corresponding to either increasing SST or increasing surface wind. The coupled ocean-atmosphere model is solved iteratively as a function of surface wind for a fixed upwelling and a fixed OML depth, and it is observed that SST falls with increasing wind in both cases. Realistic gradients of mixed-layer depth and upwelling are observed in experiments with surface wind and SST prescribed as a function of longitude.

Formation of melt channels on ice shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergienko, Olga

2013-04-01

Melt channels have been observed on ice shelves experiencing strong melting in both Greenland (Petermann Glacier) and Antarctica (Pine Island Glacier). Using a fully-couple ice-shelf/sub-ice-shelf-ocean flow model, it is demonstrated that these channels can form spontaneously in laterally confined ice shelves. These channels have transverse extent of a few kilometers and a vertical relief of about a few hundred meters. Meltrates and sea-water transport in the channels are significantly higher than in between the channels on the smooth flat ice bottom. In circumstances where an ice shelf has no-slip conditions at its lateral boundaries, the ice-shelf/sub-ice-shelf-cavity system exhibits equilibrium periodic states, where the same configurations repetitively appear with a periodicity of about 30-35 years. This peculiar dynamics of the system has strong implications on the interpretation of the remote and in-situ observations and inferences of the system parameters (e.g., melt rates) based on these observations. For instance, the persistent temporal changes in the ice-shelf thickness are caused by internal dynamics of the melt channels, and, in contrast to traditional interpretation, can be independent of the oceanic forcings.

Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Busalaacchi, Antonio J.

1998-01-01

Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL- FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few shiptracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1999-01-01

Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

A 37-mm Ceramic Gun Nozzle Stress Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-05-01

Figures iv List of Tables iv 1 . Introduction 1 2. Ceramic Nozzle Structure and Materials 1 3. Sequentially-Coupled and Fully-Coupled Thermal Stress...FEM Analysis 1 4. Ceramic Nozzle Thermal Stress Response 4 5. Ceramic Nozzle Dynamic FEM 7 6. Ceramic Nozzle Dynamic Responses and Discussions 8 7...candidate ceramics and the test fixture model components are listed in table 1 . 3. Sequentially-Coupled and Fully-Coupled Thermal Stress FEM Analysis

North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koracin, Darko; Cerovecki, Ivana; Vellore, Ramesh

2013-04-11

Executive summary The main objective of the study was to investigate atmospheric and ocean interaction processes in the western Pacific and, in particular, effects of significant ocean heat loss in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions on the lower and upper atmosphere. It is yet to be determined how significant are these processes are on climate scales. The understanding of these processes led us also to development of the methodology of coupling the Weather and Research Forecasting model with the Parallel Ocean Program model for western Pacific regional weather and climate simulations. We tested NCAR-developed research software Coupler 7 formore » coupling of the WRF and POP models and assessed its usability for regional-scale applications. We completed test simulations using the Coupler 7 framework, but implemented a standard WRF model code with options for both one- and two-way mode coupling. This type of coupling will allow us to seamlessly incorporate new WRF updates and versions in the future. We also performed a long-term WRF simulation (15 years) covering the entire North Pacific as well as high-resolution simulations of a case study which included extreme ocean heat losses in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions. Since the extreme ocean heat loss occurs during winter cold air outbreaks (CAO), we simulated and analyzed a case study of a severe CAO event in January 2000 in detail. We found that the ocean heat loss induced by CAOs is amplified by additional advection from mesocyclones forming on the southern part of the Japan Sea. Large scale synoptic patterns with anomalously strong anticyclone over Siberia and Mongolia, deep Aleutian Low, and the Pacific subtropical ridge are a crucial setup for the CAO. It was found that the onset of the CAO is related to the breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves and vertical transport of vorticity that facilitates meridional advection. The study also indicates that intrinsic parameterization of the surface fluxes within the WRF model needs more evaluation and analysis.« less

Thoughts on why in CESM a more poleward TOA energy imbalance favors more ocean-centric energy transport and weaker ITCZ shift responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, S.; Pritchard, M. S.

2017-12-01

The role of different location of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) solar forcing to the annual-mean, zonal-mean ITCZ location is examined in a dynamic ocean coupled Community Earth System Model. We observe a damped ITCZ shift response that is now a familiar response of coupled GCMs, but a new finding is that the damping efficiency is increases monotonically as the latitudinal location of forcing is moved poleward. More Poleward forcing cases exhibit weaker shifts of the annual-mean ITCZ position consistent with a more ocean-centric cross-equatorial energy partitioning response to the forcing, which is in turn linked to changes in ocean circulation, not thermodynamic structure. The ocean's dynamic response is partly due to Ekman-driven shallow overturning circulation responses, as expected from a recent theory, but also contains a significant Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) component--which is in some sense surprising given that it is activated even in near-tropical forcing experiments. Further analysis of the interhemispheric energy budget reveals the surface heating feedback response provides a useful framework for interpreting the cross-equatorial energy transport partitioning between atmosphere and ocean. Overall, the results of this study may help explain the mixed results of the degree of ITCZ shift response to interhemispheric asymmetric forcing documented in coupled GCMs in recent years. Furthermore, the sensitive AMOC response motivates expanding current coupled theoretical frameworks on meridional energy transport partitioning to include effects beyond Ekman transport.

An OSSE Study for Deep Argo Array using the GFDL Ensemble Coupled Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, You-Soon; Zhang, Shaoqing; Rosati, Anthony; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Yang, Xiaosong

2018-03-01

An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) using an ensemble coupled data assimilation system was designed to investigate the impact of deep ocean Argo profile assimilation in a biased numerical climate system. Based on the modern Argo observational array and an artificial extension to full depth, "observations" drawn from one coupled general circulation model (CM2.0) were assimilated into another model (CM2.1). Our results showed that coupled data assimilation with simultaneous atmospheric and oceanic constraints plays a significant role in preventing deep ocean drift. However, the extension of the Argo array to full depth did not significantly improve the quality of the oceanic climate estimation within the bias magnitude in the twin experiment. Even in the "identical" twin experiment for the deep Argo array from the same model (CM2.1) with the assimilation model, no significant changes were shown in the deep ocean, such as in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the Antarctic bottom water cell. The small ensemble spread and corresponding weak constraints by the deep Argo profiles with medium spatial and temporal resolution may explain why the deep Argo profiles did not improve the deep ocean features in the assimilation system. Additional studies using different assimilation methods with improved spatial and temporal resolution of the deep Argo array are necessary in order to more thoroughly understand the impact of the deep Argo array on the assimilation system.

Beyond the bipolar seesaw: Toward a process understanding of interhemispheric coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedro, Joel B.; Jochum, Markus; Buizert, Christo; He, Feng; Barker, Stephen; Rasmussen, Sune O.

2018-07-01

The thermal bipolar ocean seesaw hypothesis was advanced by Stocker and Johnsen (2003) as the 'simplest possible thermodynamic model' to explain the time relationship between Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIM) events. In this review we combine palaeoclimate observations, theory and general circulation model experiments to advance from the conceptual model toward a process understanding of interhemispheric coupling and the forcing of AIM events. We present four main results: (1) Changes in Atlantic heat transport invoked by the thermal seesaw are partially compensated by opposing changes in heat transport by the global atmosphere and Pacific Ocean. This compensation is an integral part of interhemispheric coupling, with a major influence on the global pattern of climate anomalies. (2) We support the role of a heat reservoir in interhemispheric coupling but argue that its location is the global interior ocean to the north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), not the commonly assumed Southern Ocean. (3) Energy budget analysis indicates that the process driving Antarctic warming during AIM events is an increase in poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport following sea ice retreat and surface warming over the Southern Ocean. (4) The Antarctic sea ice retreat is itself driven by eddy-heat fluxes across the ACC, amplified by sea-ice-albedo feedbacks. The lag of Antarctic warming after AMOC collapse reflects the time required for heat to accumulate in the ocean interior north of the ACC (predominantly the upper 1500 m), before it can be mixed across this dynamic barrier by eddies.

Statistical and dynamical assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yan

North Africa is highly vulnerable to hydrologic variability and extremes, including impacts of climate change. The current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts and pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models in terms of the simulated oceanic impacts and vegetation feedbacks. Regarding oceanic impacts, the relative importance of the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Oceans in regulating the North African rainfall variability, as well as the underlying mechanism, remains debated among different modeling studies. Classic theory of land-atmosphere interactions across the Sahel ecotone, largely based on climate modeling experiments, has promoted positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks associated with a dominant surface albedo mechanism. However, neither the proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback with its underlying albedo mechanism, nor its relative importance compared with oceanic drivers, has been convincingly demonstrated up to now using observational data. Here, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied in order to identify the observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate and quantify their impacts. The reliability of the statistical GEFA method is first evaluated against dynamical experiments within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In order to reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional GEFA approach is refined through stepwise GEFA, in which unimportant forcings are dropped through stepwise selection. In order to evaluate GEFA's reliability in capturing oceanic impacts, the atmospheric response to a sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing across the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated independently through ensembles of dynamical experiments and compared with GEFA-based assessments. Furthermore, GEFA's performance in capturing terrestrial impacts is evaluated through ensembles of fully coupled CESM dynamical experiments, with modified leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture across the Sahel or West African Monsoon (WAM) region. The atmospheric responses to oceanic and terrestrial forcings are generally consistent between the dynamical experiments and statistical GEFA, confirming GEFA's capability of isolating the individual impacts of oceanic and terrestrial forcings on North African climate. Furthermore, with the incorporation of stepwise selection, GEFA can now provide reliable estimates of the oceanic and terrestrial impacts on the North African climate with the typical length of observational datasets, thereby enhancing the method's applicability. After the successful validation of GEFA, the key observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate are identified through the application of GEFA to gridded observations, remote sensing products, and reanalyses. According to GEFA, oceanic drivers dominate over terrestrial drivers in terms of their observed impacts on North African climate in most seasons. Terrestrial impacts are comparable to, or more important than, oceanic impacts on rainfall during the post-monsoon across the Sahel and WAM region, and after the short rain across the Horn of Africa (HOA). The key ocean basins that regulate North African rainfall are typically located in the tropics. While the observed impacts of SST variability across the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic Oceans on the Sahel rainfall are largely consistent with previous model-based findings, minimal impacts from tropical Indian Ocean variability on Sahel rainfall are identified in observations, in contrast to previous modeling studies. The current observational analysis verifies model-hypothesized positive vegetation-rainfall feedback across the Sahel and HOA, which is confined to the post-monsoon and post-short rains season, respectively. However, the observed positive vegetation feedback to rainfall in the semi-arid Sahel and HOA is largely due to moisture recycling, rather than the classic albedo mechanism. Future projections of Sahel rainfall remain highly uncertain in terms of both sign and magnitude within phases three and five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The GEFA-based observational analyses will provide a benchmark for evaluating climate models, which will facilitate effective process-based model weighting for more reliable projections of regional climate, as well as model development.

Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1997-01-01

The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

The influence of computational strategy on prediction of mechanical stress in carotid atherosclerotic plaques: comparison of 2D structure-only, 3D structure-only, one-way and fully coupled fluid-structure interaction analyses.

PubMed

Huang, Yuan; Teng, Zhongzhao; Sadat, Umar; Graves, Martin J; Bennett, Martin R; Gillard, Jonathan H

2014-04-11

Compositional and morphological features of carotid atherosclerotic plaques provide complementary information to luminal stenosis in predicting clinical presentations. However, they alone cannot predict cerebrovascular risk. Mechanical stress within the plaque induced by cyclical changes in blood pressure has potential to assess plaque vulnerability. Various modeling strategies have been employed to predict stress, including 2D and 3D structure-only, 3D one-way and fully coupled fluid-structure interaction (FSI) simulations. However, differences in stress predictions using different strategies have not been assessed. Maximum principal stress (Stress-P1) within 8 human carotid atherosclerotic plaques was calculated based on geometry reconstructed from in vivo computerized tomography and high resolution, multi-sequence magnetic resonance images. Stress-P1 within the diseased region predicted by 2D and 3D structure-only, and 3D one-way FSI simulations were compared to 3D fully coupled FSI analysis. Compared to 3D fully coupled FSI, 2D structure-only simulation significantly overestimated stress level (94.1 kPa [65.2, 117.3] vs. 85.5 kPa [64.4, 113.6]; median [inter-quartile range], p=0.0004). However, when slices around the bifurcation region were excluded, stresses predicted by 2D structure-only simulations showed a good correlation (R(2)=0.69) with values obtained from 3D fully coupled FSI analysis. 3D structure-only model produced a small yet statistically significant stress overestimation compared to 3D fully coupled FSI (86.8 kPa [66.3, 115.8] vs. 85.5 kPa [64.4, 113.6]; p<0.0001). In contrast, one-way FSI underestimated stress compared to 3D fully coupled FSI (78.8 kPa [61.1, 100.4] vs. 85.5 kPa [64.4, 113.7]; p<0.0001). A 3D structure-only model seems to be a computationally inexpensive yet reasonably accurate approximation for stress within carotid atherosclerotic plaques with mild to moderate luminal stenosis as compared to fully coupled FSI analysis. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Eddies in the Southern Ocean

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-04-08

The cloud cover over the Southern Ocean occasionally parts as it did on January 1, 2015 just west of the Drake Passage where the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi NPP satellite glimpsed the above collection of ocean-color delineated eddies which have diameters ranging from a couple of kilometers to a couple of hundred kilometers. Recent studies indicate that eddy activity has been increasing in the Southern Ocean with possible implications for climate change. Credit: NASA's OceanColor/Suomi NPP/VIIRS NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Bausch, Alexandra; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Xu, Baiqing; Edwards. Ross; Bisiaux, Marion; McConnell, Joe

2013-01-01

Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

Mercury-Atlas 9 'Faith 7' spacecraft splashdown in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1963-01-01

The Mercury-Atlas 9 'Faith 7' spacecraft, with Astronaut L. Gordon Cooper Jr. aboard, nears splashdown in the Pacific Ocean to conclude a 22 orbit mission lasting 34 hours and 20.5 minutes. The capsules parachute is fully deployed in this view.

OSSE Assessment of Ocean Observing System Enhancements to Improve Coupled Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Mehari, M. F.; Dong, J.; Kourafalou, V.; Atlas, R. M.; Kang, H.; Le Henaff, M.

2016-02-01

A new ocean OSSE system validated in the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean is used to evaluate ocean observing strategies during the 2014 hurricane season with the goal of improving coupled tropical cyclone forecasts. Enhancements to the existing operational ocean observing system are evaluated prior to two storms, Edouard and Gonzalo, where ocean measurements were obtained during field experiments supported by the 2013 Disaster Relief Appropriation Act. For Gonzalo, a reference OSSE is performed to evaluate the impact of two ocean gliders deployed north and south of Puerto Rico and two Alamo profiling floats deployed in the same general region during most of the hurricane season. For Edouard, a reference OSSE is performed to evaluate impacts of the pre-storm ocean profile survey conducted by NOAA WP-3D aircraft. For both storms, additional OSSEs are then conducted to evaluate more extensive seasonal and pre-storm ocean observing strategies. These include (1) deploying a larger number of synthetic ocean gliders during the hurricane season, (2) deploying pre-storm synthetic thermistor chains or synthetic profiling floats along one or more "picket fence" lines that cross projected storm tracks, and (3) designing pre-storm airborne profiling surveys to have larger impacts than the actual pre-storm survey conducted for Edouard. Impacts are evaluated based on error reduction in ocean parameters important to SST cooling and hurricane intensity such as ocean heat content and the structure of the ocean eddy field. In all cases, ocean profiles that sample both temperature and salinity down to 1000m provide greater overall error reduction than shallower temperature profiles obtained from AXBTs and thermistor chains. Large spatial coverage with multiple instruments spanning a few degrees of longitude and latitude is necessary to sufficiently reduce ocean initialization errors over a region broad enough to significantly impact predicted surface enthalpy flux into the storm. Error reduction in hurricane intensity forecasts resulting from the additional ocean observations is then assessed by initializing the ocean component of the HYCOM-HWRF coupled prediction system with analyses produced by the OSSE system.

Atmosphere, ocean, and land: Critical gaps in Earth system models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinn, Ronald G.; Hartley, Dana

1992-01-01

We briefly review current knowledge and pinpoint some of the major areas of uncertainty for the following fundamental processes: (1) convection, condensation nuclei, and cloud formation; (2) oceanic circulation and its coupling to the atmosphere and cryosphere; (3) land surface hydrology and hydrology-vegetation coupling; (4) biogeochemistry of greenhouse gases; and (5) upper atmospheric chemistry and circulation.

The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eden, H.F.; Mooers, C.N.K.

1990-06-01

The goal of COPS is to couple a program of regular observations to numerical models, through techniques of data assimilation, in order to provide a predictive capability for the US coastal ocean including the Great Lakes, estuaries, and the entire Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The objectives of the program include: determining the predictability of the coastal ocean and the processes that govern the predictability; developing efficient prediction systems for the coastal ocean based on the assimilation of real-time observations into numerical models; and coupling the predictive systems for the physical behavior of the coastal ocean to predictive systems for biological,more » chemical, and geological processes to achieve an interdisciplinary capability. COPS will provide the basis for effective monitoring and prediction of coastal ocean conditions by optimizing the use of increased scientific understanding, improved observations, advanced computer models, and computer graphics to make the best possible estimates of sea level, currents, temperatures, salinities, and other properties of entire coastal regions.« less

Meridionally propagating interannual-to-interdecadal variability in a linear ocean-atmosphere model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehta, Vikram M.

1992-01-01

Meridional oscillation modes in a global, primitive-equation coupled ocean-atmosphere model have been analyzed in order to determine whether they contain such meridionally propagating modes as surface-pressure perturbations with years-to-decades oscillation periods. A two-layer global ocean model and a two-level global atmosphere model were then formulated. For realistic parameter values and basic states, meridional modes oscillating at periods of several years to several decades are noted to be present in the coupled ocean-atmosphere model; the oscillation periods, travel times, and meridional structures of surface pressure perturbations in one of the modes are found to be comparable to the corresponding characteristics of observed sea-level pressure perturbations.

Recoupling Industrial Dairy Feedlots and Industrial Farmlands Mitigates the Environmental Impacts of Milk Production in China.

PubMed

Fan, Xing; Chang, Jie; Ren, Yuan; Wu, Xu; Du, Yuanyuan; Xu, Ronghua; Liu, Dong; Chang, Scott X; Meyerson, Laura A; Peng, Changhui; Ge, Ying

2018-04-03

Dairy production is becoming more industrialized globally, especially in developing countries. The large amount of animal wastes from industrial feedlots cannot be fully used on nearby farmlands, leading to severe environmental problems. Using China as a case study, we found that most dairy feedlots employ a semicoupled mode that only recycles solid manure to farmlands, and only a few dairy feedlots employ a fully coupled mode that recycles both solid and liquid animal manure. To produce 1 ton of milk, the fully coupled mode could reduce greenhouse gas (including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in this paper) emissions by 24%, ammonia emissions by 14%, and N discharge into water by 29%, compared with the semicoupled systems. Coupling feedlots with constructed wetlands can further result in greater mitigation of N leaching into groundwater. However, the fully coupled system has not been widely used due to the low benefit to farmers and the institutional barrier that the feedlot owners have no right to use adjacent farmlands. Since a fully coupled system improves net ecosystem services that favor the public, a policy that supports removing the economic and institutional barriers is necessary. Our approach provides a template for mitigating environmental impacts from livestock production without sacrificing milk production.

Formation of a CliC/CLIVAR Northern Oceans Regional Panel to advance the understanding of the role of the Arctic in global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, A.

2017-12-01

The Arctic climate is rapidly transitioning into a new regime with lower sea ice extent and increasingly younger and thinner sea ice pack. The emergent properties of this new regime are yet to be determined since altered feedback processes between ice, ocean, and atmosphere will further impact upper ocean heat content, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric and oceanic stratification, the interactions between subsurface/intermediate warm waters and surface cold and fresh layer, cloud cover, ice growth, among other properties. This emergent new climate regime needs to be understood in terms of the two-way feedback between the Arctic and lower-latitudes (both in the ocean and atmosphere), as well as the local coupling between ocean-sea ice-atmosphere. The net result of these feedbacks will determine the magnitude of future Arctic amplification and potential impacts on mid-latitude weather extremes, among other impacts. A new international panel, the CliC/CLIVAR Northern Oceans Regional Panel, has been established to coordinate efforts that will enhance our ability to monitor the coupled system, understand the driving mechanisms of the system change from a coupled process perspective, and predict the evolution of the emerging "New Arctic" climate. This talk will discuss the scientific motivation for this new panel, the near-term objectives, and plans for deliverables.

Arabian Sea Fronts and Barrier Layers

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

enable accurate prediction of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that governs the climate of the Northern Indian Ocean. RELATED PROJECTS NASA ...relationship with the Indian Ocean monsoons and regional climate in general. OBJECTIVES The primary objective of this project is to

The Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) of the Ocean: Effects of Wave Representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eide, H.; Stamnes, K.; Ottaviani, M.

2004-12-01

The specular reflection of the Sun off the ocean, or sun glint, is of major concern for ocean remote sensing. Typically, data from in and around the sunglint region are discarded because of the unknown contribution to the measured radiances or because of sensor saturation. On the other hand, accurate knowledge of the sunglint properties enables retrievals of atmospheric parameters. The challenge of the ocean retrieval problem is to get the ``water leaving radiance'', Lw, by subtracting the Rayleigh scattering, aerosol scattering, water vapor, ozone, and sun glint from the measured radiances at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Thus, the task is to correct for both the atmospheric contribution and for surface effects. Two simplifying assumptions that are frequently employed in ocean remote sensing are that the ocean BRDF is isotropic and that one can de-couple the radiative properties of the atmosphere from those of the surface. Our previous studies have shown that neglecting the inherit coupling between the atmosphere and surface can lead to large errors in the retrievals. In order to do retrievals over bright, as well as darker surfaces, it is necessary to account for this coupling between the surface and the atmosphere. In the present study we use models for the reflection of light off the ocean surface to calculate the ocean BRDF. The differences between the various models are investigated as is the effect of using different types of wave statistics (e.g. Cox Munk). We present results from calculations where we vary the wind speed and direction as well as other parameters affecting the ocean surface. The error introduced in ocean retrievals by assuming an isotropic BRDF is assessed, and methods for improved treatment of sunglint are suggested.

Climate and CO2 coupling in the early Cenozoic Greenhouse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rae, J. W. B.; Greenop, R.; Kaminski, M.; Sexton, P. F.; Foster, G. L.; Greene, S. E.; Littley, E.; Kirtland Turner, S.; Ridgwell, A.

2017-12-01

The early Cenozoic is a time of climatic extremes: hyperthermals pepper the transition from extreme global warmth to the start of Cenozoic cooling, with these evolving climate regimes accompanied by major changes in ocean chemistry and biota. The exogenic carbon cycle, and ocean-atmospheric CO2 in particular, is thought to have played a key role in these climatic changes, but the carbon chemistry of the early Cenozoic ocean remains poorly constrained. Here we present new boron isotope data from benthic foraminifera, which can be used to constrain relative changes in ocean pH. These are coupled with modelling experiments performed with the cGenie Earth system model to provide new constraints on the carbon cycle and carbonate system of the early Cenozoic. While our benthic boron isotope data do not readily provide a record of surface ocean CO2 , they do place constraints on the whole ocean-atmosphere carbonate system, alongside changes in ocean circulation and biogeochemistry, and also have relatively robust calcite tests and small `vital effects'. During the late Paleocene ascent to peak greenhouse conditions and the middle Eocene descent towards the icehouse, our boron isotope data show close coupling with benthic δ18O, demonstrating a clear link between CO2 and climate. However within the early Eocene our boron isotope data reveal more dynamic changes in deep ocean pH, which may be linked to changes in ocean circulation. Overall, our data demonstrate the ability of CO2 to regulate the climate system across varying boundary conditions, and the influence of both the long-term carbon cycle and shorter-term ocean biogeochemical cycling on Earth's climate.

The role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) using a regional coupled data assimilation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Akiyoshi; Kunii, Masaru

2017-05-01

For improving analyses of tropical cyclone (TC) and sea surface temperature (SST) and thereby TC simulations, a regional mesoscale strongly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation system was developed with the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) implemented with the Japan Meteorological Agency's nonhydrostatic model (NHM) coupled with a multilayer ocean model and the third-generation ocean wave model. The NHM-LETKF coupled data assimilation system was applied to Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) along with the original NHM-LETKF system to investigate the sensitivity of Sinlaku to SST assimilation with the Level 2 Pre-processed (L2P) standard product of satellite SST. SST calculated in the coupled-assimilation experiment with the coupled data assimilation system and the satellite SST (CPL) showed a better correlation with Optimally Interpolated SST than SST used in the control experiment with the original NHM-LETKF (CNTL) and SST calculated in the succession experiment with the coupled system without satellite SST (SUCC). The time series in the CPL experiment well captured the variation in the SST observed at the Kuroshio Extension Observation buoy site. In addition, TC-induced sea surface cooling was analyzed more realistically in the CPL experiment than that in the CNTL and SUCC experiments. However, the central pressure analyzed in each three experiments was overestimated compared with the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo best-track central pressure, mainly due to the coarse horizontal resolution of 15 km. The 96 h TC simulations indicated that the CPL experiment provided more favorable initial and boundary conditions than the CNTL experiment to simulate TC tracks more accurately.

A New Approach for Coupled GCM Sensitivity Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirtman, B. P.; Duane, G. S.

2011-12-01

A new multi-model approach for coupled GCM sensitivity studies is presented. The purpose of the sensitivity experiments is to understand why two different coupled models have such large differences in their respective climate simulations. In the application presented here, the differences between the coupled models using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are examined. The intent is to isolate which component of the air-sea fluxes is most responsible for the differences between the coupled models and for the errors in their respective coupled simulations. The procedure is to simultaneously couple the two different atmospheric component models to a single ocean general circulation model (OGCM), in this case the Modular Ocean Model (MOM) developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Each atmospheric component model experiences the same SST produced by the OGCM, but the OGCM is simultaneously coupled to both AGCMs using a cross coupling strategy. In the first experiment, the OGCM is coupled to the heat and fresh water flux from the NCAR AGCM (Community Atmospheric Model; CAM) and the momentum flux from the COLA AGCM. Both AGCMs feel the same SST. In the second experiment, the OGCM is coupled to the heat and fresh water flux from the COLA AGCM and the momentum flux from the CAM AGCM. Again, both atmospheric component models experience the same SST. By comparing these two experimental simulations with control simulations where only one AGCM is used, it is possible to argue which of the flux components are most responsible for the differences in the simulations and their respective errors. Based on these sensitivity experiments we conclude that the tropical ocean warm bias in the COLA coupled model is due to errors in the heat flux, and that the erroneous westward shift in the tropical Pacific cold tongue minimum in the NCAR model is due errors in the momentum flux. All the coupled simulations presented here have warm biases along the eastern boundary of the tropical oceans suggesting that the problem is common to both AGCMs. In terms of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, the CAM momentum flux is responsible for the erroneous westward extension of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and errors in the COLA momentum flux cause the erroneous eastward migration of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. These conclusions depend on assuming that the error due to the OGCM can be neglected.

The Pattern and Dynamics of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Upper Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

Atlantic . Figure 4a shows that the center of meridional overturning circulation occurs at a level of about one kilometer. Circulation is weak at...maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. 5. Global Simulation The most exciting experiment would be to fully model the...mechanisms responsible for the strength and maintenance of the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean are not

Physical Modeling for Processing Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer-Indian Ocean METOC Imager (GIFTS-IOMI) Hyperspectral Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-09-30

Physical Modeling for Processing Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer-Indian Ocean METOC Imager ( GIFTS -IOMI) Hyperspectral Data...water quality assessment. OBJECTIVES The objective of this DoD research effort is to develop and demonstrate a fully functional GIFTS - IOMI...environment once GIFTS -IOMI is stationed over the Indian Ocean. The system will provide specialized methods for the characterization of the atmospheric

Modeling Ocean Ecosystems: The PARADIGM Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-01

of biological reality: the wonderful com- 2. Nitrogen-fixing bacteria and archaea our concept of a species (e.g., Venter et plexity of ocean...ecosystems will never be ( diazotrophs ), which convert atmo- al., 2004; Doney et al., 2004; DeLong and fully described with numerical models of spheric...applying ocean inventory of nitrogen nutrients. numerical models, we are confronted Specifying "Functional Groups" Some diazotrophs fix both CO 2 and with

21st Century Carbon-Climate Change as Simulated by the Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, C.; Christian, J. R.; Arora, V.; Boer, G. J.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Merryfield, W. J.; Lee, W. G.; Yang, D.

2009-12-01

The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1 is a fully coupled climate/carbon-cycle model with prognostic ocean and terrestrial components. The model has been used to simulate the 1850-2000 climate using historical greenhouse gas emissions, and future climates using IPCC emission scenarios. Modelled globally averaged CO2 concentration, land and ocean carbon uptake compare well with observation-based values at year 2000, as do the annual cycle and latitudinal distribution of CO2, instilling confidence that the model is suitable for future projections of carbon cycle behaviour in a changing climate. Land use change emissions are calculated explicitly using an observation-based time series of fractional coverage of different plant functional types. A more complete description of the model may be found in Arora et al. (2009). Differences in the land-atmosphere CO2 flux from the present to the future period under the SRES A2 emissions scenario show an increase in land sinks by a factor of 7.5 globally, mostly the result of CO2 fertilization. By contrast, the magnitude of the global ocean CO2 sink increases by a factor of only 2.3 by 2100. Expressed as a fraction of total emissions, ocean carbon uptake decreases throughout the 2000-2100 period, while land carbon uptake increases until around 2050, then declines. The result is an increase in airborne CO2 fraction after the mid-21st century, reaching a value of 0.55 by 2100. The simulated decline in ocean carbon uptake over the 21st century occurs despite steadily rising atmospheric CO2. This behaviour is usually attributed to climate-induced changes in surface temperature and salinity that reduce CO2 solubility, and increasing ocean stratification that weakens the biological pump. However, ocean biological processes such as dinitrogen fixation and calcification may also play an important role. Although not well understood at present, improved parameterizations of these processes will increase confidence in projections of future trends in CO2 uptake.

Avoiding drift related to linear analysis update with Lagrangian coordinate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois; Bertino, Laurent

2015-04-01

When applying data assimilation to Lagrangian coordinate models, it is profitable to correct its grid (position, volume). In isopycnal ocean coordinate model, such information is provided by the layer thickness that can be massless but must remains positive (truncated Gaussian distribution). A linear gaussian analysis does not ensure positivity for such variable. Existing methods have been proposed to handle this issue - e.g. post processing, anamorphosis or resampling - but none ensures conservation of the mean, which is imperative in climate application. Here, a framework is introduced to test a new method, which proceed as following. First, layers for which analysis yields negative values are iteratively grouped with neighboring layers, resulting in a probability density function with a larger mean and smaller standard deviation that prevent appearance of negative values. Second, analysis increments of the grouped layer are uniformly distributed, which prevent massless layers to become filled and vice-versa. The new method is proved fully conservative with e.g. OI or 3DVAR but a small drift remains with ensemble-based methods (e.g. EnKF, DEnKF, …) during the update of the ensemble anomaly. However, the resulting drift with the latter is small (an order of magnitude smaller than with post-processing) and the increase of the computational cost moderate. The new method is demonstrated with a realistic application in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) that provides climate prediction by assimilating sea surface temperature with the Ensemble Kalman Filter in a fully coupled Earth System model (NorESM) with an isopycnal ocean model (MICOM). Over 25-year analysis period, the new method does not impair the predictive skill of the system but corrects the artificial steric drift introduced by data assimilation, and provide estimate in good agreement with IPCC AR5.

Potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau heating by tropical air-sea coupling in regional models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ziqian; Duan, Anmin; Yang, Song

2018-05-01

Based on the conventional weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the air-sea coupled mode WRF-OMLM, we investigate the potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau (TP) heating by the air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Results indicate that the TP heating significantly enhances the southwesterly monsoon circulation over the northern Indian Ocean and the South Asia subcontinent. The intensified southwesterly wind cools the sea surface mainly through the wind-evaporation-SST (sea surface temperature) feedback. Cold SST anomaly then weakens monsoon convective activity, especially that over the Bay of Bengal, and less water vapor is thus transported into the TP along its southern slope from the tropical oceans. As a result, summer precipitation decreases over the TP, which further weakens the TP local heat source. Finally, the changed TP heating continues to influence the summer monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation. To a certain extent, the air-sea coupling over the adjacent oceans may weaken the effect of TP heating on the mean climate in summer. It is also implied that considerations of air-sea interaction are necessary in future simulation studies of the TP heating effect.

Anticipated Improvements to Net Surface Freshwater Fluxes from GPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.

2005-01-01

Evaporation and precipitation over the oceans play very important roles in the global water cycle, upper-ocean heat budget, ocean dynamics, and coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics. In the conventional representation of the terrestrial water cycle, the assumed role of the oceans is to act as near-infinite reservoirs of water with the main drivers of the water cycle being land- atmosphere interactions in which excess precipitation (P) over evaporation (E) is returned to the oceans as surface runoff and baseflow. Whereas this perspective is valid for short space and time scales -- fundamental principles, available observed estimates, and results from models indicate that the oceans play a far more important role in the large-scale water cycle at seasonal and longer timescales. Approximately 70-80% of the total global evaporation and precipitation occurs over oceans. Moreover, latent heat release into the atmosphere over the oceans is the major heat source driving global atmospheric circulations, with the moisture transported by circulations from oceans to continents being the major source of water precipitating over land. Notably, the major impediment in understanding and modeling the oceans role in the global water cycle is the lack of reliable net surface freshwater flux estimates (E - P fluxes) at the salient spatial and temporal resolutions, i.e., consistent coupled weekly to monthly E - P gridded datasets.

Simulating the Regional Impact of Dust on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2018-02-01

The Red Sea is located between North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, the largest sources of dust in the world. Satellite retrievals show very high aerosol optical depth in the region, which increases during the summer season, especially over the southern Red Sea. Previously estimated and validated radiative effect from dust is expected to have a profound thermal and dynamic impact on the Red Sea, but that impact has not yet been studied or evaluated. Due to the strong dust radiative effect at the sea surface, uncoupled ocean modeling approaches with prescribed atmospheric boundary conditions result in an unrealistic ocean response. Therefore, to study the impact of dust on the regional climate of the Middle East and the Red Sea, we employed the Regional Ocean Modeling System fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We modified the atmospheric model to account for the radiative effect of dust. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust cools the Red Sea, reduces the surface wind speed, and weakens both the exchange at the Bab-el-Mandeb strait and the overturning circulation. The salinity distribution, freshwater, and heat budgets are significantly altered. A validation of the simulations against satellite products indicates that accounting for radiative effect from dust almost completely removes the bias and reduces errors in the top of the atmosphere fluxes and sea surface temperature. Our results suggest that dust plays an important role in the energy balance, thermal, and circulation regimes in the Red Sea.

North Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability and Model Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.

2017-12-01

Remote forcing from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local ocean-atmosphere feedback are important for climate variability over the North Tropical Atlantic. These two factors are extracted by the ensemble mean and inter-member difference of a 10-member Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment, in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but fully coupled to the atmosphere elsewhere. POGA reasonably captures main features of observed North Tropical Atlantic variability. ENSO forced and local North Tropical Atlantic modes (NTAMs) develop with wind-evaporation-SST feedback, explaining one third and two thirds of total variance respectively. Notable biases, however, exist. The seasonality of the simulated NTAM is delayed by one month, due to the late development of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the model. A spurious band of enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) variance (SBEV) is identified over the northern equatorial Atlantic in POGA and 14 out of 23 CMIP5 models. The SBEV is especially pronounced in boreal spring and due to the combined effect of both anomalous atmospheric thermal forcing and oceanic vertical upwelling. While the tropical North Atlantic variability is only weakly correlated with the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM) in observations, the SBEV in CMIP5 produces conditions that drive and intensify the AZM variability via triggering the Bjerknes feedback. This partially explains why AZM is strong in some CMIP5 models even though the equatorial cold tongue and easterly trades are biased low.

Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehlen, M.; Séférian, R.; Jones, D. O. B.; Roy, T.; Roth, R.; Barry, J.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J. P.; Heinze, C.; Joos, F.; Orr, J. C.; Resplandy, L.; Segschneider, J.; Tjiputra, J.

2014-06-01

This study aims at evaluating the potential for impacts of ocean acidification on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Deep-sea biota is likely highly vulnerable to changes in seawater chemistry and sensitive to moderate excursions in pH. Here we show, from seven fully-coupled Earth system models, that for three out of four RCPs over 17% of the seafloor area below 500 m depth in the North Atlantic sector will experience pH reductions exceeding -0.2 units by 2100. Increased stratification in response to climate change partially alleviates the impact of ocean acidification on deep benthic environment. We report major potential consequences of pH reductions for deep-sea biodiversity hotspots, such as seamounts and canyons. By 2100 and under the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5 pH reductions exceeding -0.2, (respectively -0.3) units are projected in close to 23% (~ 15%) of North Atlantic deep-sea canyons and ~ 8% (3%) of seamounts - including seamounts proposed as sites of marine protected areas. The spatial pattern of impacts reflects the depth of the pH perturbation and does not scale linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Impacts may cause negative changes of the same magnitude or exceeding the current target of 10% of preservation of marine biomes set by the convention on biological diversity implying that ocean acidification may offset benefits from conservation/management strategies relying on the regulation of resource exploitation.

Salt exchange in the Indian-Atlantic Ocean Gateway since the Last Glacial Maximum: A compensating effect between Agulhas Current changes and salinity variations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, Margit H.; Gong, Xun; Hall, Ian R.; Ziegler, Martin; Barker, Stephen; Knorr, Gregor; van der Meer, Marcel T. J.; Kasper, Sebastian; Schouten, Stefan

2015-10-01

The import of relatively salty water masses from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic is considered to be important for the operational mode of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, the occurrence and the origin of changes in this import behavior on millennial and glacial/interglacial timescales remains equivocal. Here we reconstruct multiproxy paleosalinity changes in the Agulhas Current since the Last Glacial Maximum and compare the salinity pattern with records from the Indian-Atlantic Ocean Gateway (I-AOG) and model simulations using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The reconstructed paleosalinity pattern in the Agulhas Current displays coherent variability with changes recorded in the wider I-AOG region over the last glacial termination. We infer that salinities simultaneously increased in both areas consistent with a quasi interhemispheric salt-seesaw response, analogous to the thermal bipolar seesaw in response to a reduced cross-hemispheric heat and salt exchange during times of weakened AMOC. Interestingly, these hydrographic shifts can also be recognized in the wider Southern Hemisphere, which indicates that salinity anomalies are not purely restricted to the Agulhas Current System itself. More saline upstream Agulhas waters were propagated to the I-AOG during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1). However, the salt flux into the South Atlantic might have been reduced due to a decreased volume transport through the I-AOG during the AMOC slowdown associated with HS1. Hence, our combined data-model interpretation suggests that intervals with higher salinity in the Agulhas Current source region are not necessarily an indicator for an increased salt import via the I-AOG into the South Atlantic.

A new parameterization for surface ocean light attenuation in Earth System Models: assessing the impact of light absorption by colored detrital material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, G. E.; Pradal, M.-A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2015-03-01

Light limitation can affect the distribution of biota and nutrients in the ocean. Light absorption by colored detrital material (CDM) was included in a fully coupled Earth System Model using a new parameterization for shortwave attenuation. Two model runs were conducted, with and without light attenuation by CDM. In a global average sense, greater light limitation associated with CDM increased surface chlorophyll, biomass and nutrients together. These changes can be attributed to the movement of biological productivity higher up the water column, which increased surface chlorophyll and biomass while simultaneously decreasing total biomass. Meanwhile, the reduction in biomass resulted in greater nutrient availability throughout the water column. Similar results were found on a regional scale in an analysis of the oceans by biome. In coastal regions, surface chlorophyll increased by 35% while total integrated phytoplankton biomass diminished by 18%. The largest relative increases in modeled surface chlorophyll and biomass in the open ocean were found in the equatorial biomes, while largest decreases in depth-integrated biomass and chlorophyll were found in the subpolar and polar biomes. This mismatch of surface and subsurface trends and their regional dependence was analyzed by comparing the competing factors of diminished light availability and increased nutrient availability on phytoplankton growth in the upper 200 m. Overall, increases in surface biomass were expected to accompany greater nutrient uptake and therefore diminish surface nutrients, but changes in light limitation decoupled trends between these two variables. Understanding changes in biological productivity requires both surface and depth-resolved information. Surface trends may be minimal or of the opposite sign to depth-integrated amounts, depending on the vertical structure of phytoplankton abundance.

Seasonal cycles of pelagic production and consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longhurst, Alan

Comprehensive seasonal cycles of production and consumption in the pelagial require the ocean to be partitioned. This can be done rationally at two levels: into four primary ecological domains (three oceanic and one coastal), or about fifty biogeochemical provinces. The domains differ in their characteristic seasonal cycles of stability, nutrient supply and illumination, while provinces are defined by ocean currents, fronts, topography and recurrent features in the sea surface chlorophyll field. For each of these compartments, seasonal cycles of photic depth, primary production and accumulation (or loss) of algal biomass were obtained from the climatological CZCS chlorophyll field and other data and these, together with mixed layer depths, rendered characteristic seasonal cycles of production and consumption, which can be grouped into eight models: i - polar irradiance-mediated production peak; ii - nutrient-limited spring production peak; iii - winter-spring production with nutrient limitation; iv - small amplitude response to trade wind seasonality; v - large amplitude response to monsoon reversal; vi - canonical spring-fall blooms of mid-latitude continental shelves; vii - topography-forced summer production; viii - intermittent production at coastal divergences. For higher latitudes, these models suggest that the observed late-summer ‘blooms’ result not from a renewal of primary production rate, but from a relaxation of grazing pressure; in mid-latitudes, the observed ‘winter’ bloom represents chlorophyll accumulation at a season when loss terms are apparently smaller than during the period of peak primary production rate which occurs later, in spring. Where an episodic seasonal increase in rate of primary production occurs, as in the Arabian Sea, algal biomass accumulation may brief, lasting only until consumption is fully re-established. Only in the low latitude oligotrophic ocean are production and consumption perennially and closely coupled.

Mercury-Atlas 9 'Faith 7' spacecraft splashdown in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

The Mercury-Atlas 9 'Faith 7' spacecraft, with Astronaut L. Gordon Cooper Jr. aboard, splashdown in the Pacific Ocean to conclude a 22 orbit mission lasting 34 hours and 20.5 minutes. The capsules parachute is fully deployed in this view. A rescue helicopter hovers overhead

Towards the Adriatic meteotsunami early warning system: modelling strategy and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denamiel, Clea; Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica

2017-04-01

Destructive meteotsunamis are known to occur along the eastern Adriatic coastal areas and islands (Vilibić and Šepić, 2009). The temporal lag between the offshore generation of meteotsunamis due to specific atmospheric conditions and the arrival of a dangerous nearshore propagating wave at known locations is of the order of tens of minutes to a couple of hours. In order to reduce the coastal risk for the coastal communities, an early warning system must rely on the ability to detect these extreme storms offshore with in-situ measurements and to predict the hydrodynamic response nearshore via numerical models within this short time lag. However, the numerical modelling of meteotsunamis requires both temporal and spatial high-resolution atmospheric and ocean models which are highly demanding concerning time and computer resources. Furthermore, both a multi-model approach and an ensemble modelling strategy should be used to better forecast the distribution of the nearshore impact of meteotsunamis. The modelling strategy used in this study thus rely on the development of an operational atmosphere-ocean model of the Adriatic Sea at 1km spatial resolution based on the state-of-the-art fully coupled COAWST model (Warner et al., 2010). The model allows for generation of meteotsunamis offshore, while various high-resolution (up to 5m) nearshore hydrodynamic models (such as ADCIRC - Luettich and Westerink, 1991; SELFE - Zhang et al., 2008 and GeoClaw - LeVeque, 2012) are setup to properly reproduce meteotsunami dynamics of the entire Croatian coastal areas, which are characterized by a great number of islands, channels and bays. The implementation and validation of each component of this modelling system is first undertaken for the well documented meteotsunami event (Šepić et al., 2016), which was recorded along the Croatian Adriatic coast on the 25th and the 26th of June 2014. The validation of the modelling strategy as well as the model results is presented and discussed in this study. LeVeque, R.J., 2002. Finite Volume Methods for Hyperbolic Problems. Cambridge University Press. Luettich, R.A., and Westerink, J.J., 1991. A solution for the vertical variation of stress, rather than velocity, in a three-dimensional circulation model. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 12, 911-928. Šepić, J., Međogorac, I., Janeković, I., Dunić, N., and Vilibić, I., 2016. Multi-Meteotsunami Event in the Adriatic Sea Generated by Atmospheric Disturbances of 25-26 June 2014. Pure and Applied Geophysics, DOI 10.1007/s00024-016-1249-4. Vilibić, I., Šepić, J., 2009. Destructive meteotsunamis along the eastern Adriatic coast: overview. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 34, 904-917. Warner, J.C., Armstrong, B., He, R.Y., and Zambon, J.B., 2010. Development of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling System. Ocean Modelling, 35(3), 230-244. Zhang, Y.J., and Baptista, A.M., 2008. SELFE: A semi-implicit Eulerian-Langrangian finite-element model for cross-scale ocean circulation. Ocean Modelling, 21, 71-96.

A Decadal Climate Cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean as Simulated by the ECHO Coupled GCM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grötzner, A.; Latif, M.; Barnett, T. P.

1998-05-01

In this paper a decadal climate cycle in the North Atlantic that was derived from an extended-range integration with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is described. The decadal mode shares many features with the observed decadal variability in the North Atlantic. The period of the simulated oscillation, however, is somewhat longer than that estimated from observations. While the observations indicate a period of about 12 yr, the coupled model simulation yields a period of about 17 yr. The cyclic nature of the decadal variability implies some inherent predictability at these timescales.The decadal mode is based on unstable air-sea interactions and must be therefore regarded as an inherently coupled mode. It involves the subtropical gyre and the North Atlantic oscillation. The memory of the coupled system, however, resides in the ocean and is related to horizontal advection and to the oceanic adjustment to low-frequency wind stress curl variations. In particular, it is found that variations in the intensity of the Gulf Stream and its extension are crucial to the oscillation. Although differing in details, the North Atlantic decadal mode and the North Pacific mode described by M. Latif and T. P. Barnett are based on the same fundamental mechanism: a feedback loop between the wind driven subtropical gyre and the extratropical atmospheric circulation.

Modes of North Atlantic Decadal Variability in the ECHAM1/LSG Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorita, Eduardo; Frankignoul, Claude

1997-02-01

The climate variability in the North Atlantic sector is investigated in a 325-yr integration of the ECHAM1/ LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. At the interannual timescale, the coupled model behaves realistically and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies arise as a response of the oceanic surface layer to the stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, with the heat exchanges both generating and damping the SST anomalies. In the ocean interior, the temperature spectra are red up to a period of about 20 years, and substantial decadal fluctuations are found in the upper kilometer or so of the water column. Using extended empirical orthogonal function analysis, two distinct quasi-oscillatory modes of ocean-atmosphere variability are identified, with dominant periods of about 20 and 10 years, respectively. The oceanic changes in both modes reflect the direct forcing by the atmosphere through anomalous air-sea fluxes and Ekman pumping, which after some delay affects the intensity of the subtropical and subpolar gyres. The SST is also strongly modulated by the gyre currents. In the thermocline, the temperature and salinity fluctuations are in phase, as if caused by thermocline displacements, and they have no apparent connection with the thermohaline circulation. The 20-yr mode is the most energetic one; it is easily seen in the thermocline and can be found in SST data, but it is not detected in the atmosphere alone. As there is no evidence of positive ocean-atmosphere feedback, the 20-yr mode primarily reflects the passive response of the ocean to atmospheric fluctuations, which may be in part associated with climate anomalies appearing a few years earlier in the North Pacific. The 10-yr mode is more surface trapped in the ocean. Although the mode is most easily seen in the temperature variations of the upper few hundred meters of the ocean, it is also detected in the atmosphere alone and thus appears to be a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode. In both modes, the surface heat flux acts neutrally on the associated SST anomalies once they have been generated, so that their persistence appears to be due in part to an overall adjustment of the air-sea heat exchanges to the SST patterns.

Finite Element Barotropic Model for the Indian and Western Pacific OceanBasin: Tidal Model Data Comparisons and Sensitivities

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-11

From - To) 01/11/2018 Final Technical Report June 01 2016 - Dec 30 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Sa. CONTRACT NUMBER Finite - Element Barotropic Model...grid finite - element barotropic fully hydrodynamic model in order to understand the shallow-water dynamics of the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific Ocean...dissipative dissipative processes are explored. 15. SUBJECTTERMS finite - element , unstructured grid, barotropic tides, bathymetry, internal tide

Submesoscale Flows and Mixing in the Oceanic Surface Layer Using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

continuation of the evolution of the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) as a multi-scale, multi-process model and its utilization for...hydrostatic component of ROMS (Kanarska et al., 2007) is required to increase its efficiency and generality. The non-hydrostatic ROMS involves the solution...instability and wind-driven mixing. For the computational regime where those processes can be partially, but not yet fully resolved, it will

Combined ocean acidification and low temperature stressors cause coral mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavousi, Javid; Parkinson, John Everett; Nakamura, Takashi

2016-09-01

Oceans are predicted to become more acidic and experience more temperature variability—both hot and cold—as climate changes. Ocean acidification negatively impacts reef-building corals, especially when interacting with other stressors such as elevated temperature. However, the effects of combined acidification and low temperature stress have yet to be assessed. Here, we exposed nubbins of the scleractinian coral Montipora digitata to ecologically relevant acidic, cold, or combined stress for 2 weeks. Coral nubbins exhibited 100% survival in isolated acidic and cold treatments, but ~30% mortality under combined conditions. These results provide further evidence that coupled stressors have an interactive effect on coral physiology, and reveal that corals in colder environments are also susceptible to the deleterious impacts of coupled ocean acidification and thermal stress.

A fully coupled method for massively parallel simulation of hydraulically driven fractures in 3-dimensions: FULLY COUPLED PARALLEL SIMULATION OF HYDRAULIC FRACTURES IN 3-D

DOE PAGES

Settgast, Randolph R.; Fu, Pengcheng; Walsh, Stuart D. C.; ...

2016-09-18

This study describes a fully coupled finite element/finite volume approach for simulating field-scale hydraulically driven fractures in three dimensions, using massively parallel computing platforms. The proposed method is capable of capturing realistic representations of local heterogeneities, layering and natural fracture networks in a reservoir. A detailed description of the numerical implementation is provided, along with numerical studies comparing the model with both analytical solutions and experimental results. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for modeling large-scale problems involving hydraulically driven fractures in three dimensions.

A fully coupled method for massively parallel simulation of hydraulically driven fractures in 3-dimensions: FULLY COUPLED PARALLEL SIMULATION OF HYDRAULIC FRACTURES IN 3-D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Settgast, Randolph R.; Fu, Pengcheng; Walsh, Stuart D. C.

This study describes a fully coupled finite element/finite volume approach for simulating field-scale hydraulically driven fractures in three dimensions, using massively parallel computing platforms. The proposed method is capable of capturing realistic representations of local heterogeneities, layering and natural fracture networks in a reservoir. A detailed description of the numerical implementation is provided, along with numerical studies comparing the model with both analytical solutions and experimental results. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for modeling large-scale problems involving hydraulically driven fractures in three dimensions.

Spurious sea ice formation caused by oscillatory ocean tracer advection schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naughten, Kaitlin A.; Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.; Meissner, Katrin J.; England, Matthew H.; Brassington, Gary B.; Colberg, Frank; Hattermann, Tore; Debernard, Jens B.

2017-08-01

Tracer advection schemes used by ocean models are susceptible to artificial oscillations: a form of numerical error whereby the advected field alternates between overshooting and undershooting the exact solution, producing false extrema. Here we show that these oscillations have undesirable interactions with a coupled sea ice model. When oscillations cause the near-surface ocean temperature to fall below the freezing point, sea ice forms for no reason other than numerical error. This spurious sea ice formation has significant and wide-ranging impacts on Southern Ocean simulations, including the disappearance of coastal polynyas, stratification of the water column, erosion of Winter Water, and upwelling of warm Circumpolar Deep Water. This significantly limits the model's suitability for coupled ocean-ice and climate studies. Using the terrain-following-coordinate ocean model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modelling System) coupled to the sea ice model CICE (Community Ice CodE) on a circumpolar Antarctic domain, we compare the performance of three different tracer advection schemes, as well as two levels of parameterised diffusion and the addition of flux limiters to prevent numerical oscillations. The upwind third-order advection scheme performs better than the centered fourth-order and Akima fourth-order advection schemes, with far fewer incidents of spurious sea ice formation. The latter two schemes are less problematic with higher parameterised diffusion, although some supercooling artifacts persist. Spurious supercooling was eliminated by adding flux limiters to the upwind third-order scheme. We present this comparison as evidence of the problematic nature of oscillatory advection schemes in sea ice formation regions, and urge other ocean/sea-ice modellers to exercise caution when using such schemes.

CLIVAR-GSOP/GODAE Ocean Synthesis Inter-Comparison of Global Air-Sea Fluxes From Ocean and Coupled Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivieso, Maria

2014-05-01

The GODAE OceanView and CLIVAR-GSOP ocean synthesis program has been assessing the degree of consistency between global air-sea flux data sets obtained from ocean or coupled reanalyses (Valdivieso et al., 2014). So far, fifteen global air-sea heat flux products obtained from ocean or coupled reanalyses have been examined: seven are from low-resolution ocean reanalyses (BOM PEODAS, ECMWF ORAS4, JMA/MRI MOVEG2, JMA/MRI MOVECORE, Hamburg Univ. GECCO2, JPL ECCOv4, and NCEP GODAS), five are from eddy-permitting ocean reanalyses developed as part of the EU GMES MyOcean program (Mercator GLORYS2v1, Reading Univ. UR025.3, UR025.4, UKMO GloSea5, and CMCC C-GLORS), and the remaining three are couple reanalyses based on coupled climate models (JMA/MRI MOVE-C, GFDL ECDA and NCEP CFSR). The global heat closure in the products over the period 1993-2009 spanned by all data sets is presented in comparison with observational and atmospheric reanalysis estimates. Then, global maps of ensemble spread in the seasonal cycle, and of the Signal to Noise Ratio of interannual flux variability over the 17-yr common period are shown to illustrate the consistency between the products. We have also studied regional variability in the products, particularly at the OceanSITES project locations (such as, for instance, the TAO/TRITON and PIRATA arrays in the Tropical Pacific and Atlantic, respectively). Comparisons are being made with other products such as OAFlux latent and sensible heat fluxes (Yu et al., 2008) combined with ISCCP satellite-based radiation (Zhang et al., 2004), the ship-based NOC2.0 product (Berry and Kent, 2009), the Large and Yeager (2009) hybrid flux dataset CORE.2, and two atmospheric reanalysis products, the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (referred to as ERAi, Dee et al., 2011) and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis R2 (referred to as NCEP-R2, Kanamitsu et al., 2002). Preliminary comparisons with the observational flux products from OceanSITES are also underway. References Berry, D.I. and E.C. Kent (2009), A New Air-Sea Interaction Gridded Dataset from ICOADS with Uncertainty Estimates. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc 90(5), 645-656. doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2639.1. Dee, D. P. et al. (2011), The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 137: 553-597. doi: 10.1002/qj.828. Kanamitsu M., Ebitsuzaki W., Woolen J., Yang S.K., Hnilo J.J., Fiorino M., Potter G. (2002), NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83:1631-1643. Large, W. and Yeager, S. (2009), The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux data set. Clim. Dynamics, Volume 33, pp 341-364 Valdivieso, M. and co-authors (2014): Heat fluxes from ocean and coupled reanalyses, Clivar Exchanges. Issue 64. Yu, L., X. Jin, and R. A. Weller (2008), Multidecade Global Flux Datasets from the Objectively Analyzed Air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) Project: Latent and Sensible Heat Fluxes, Ocean Evaporation, and Related Surface Meteorological Variables. Technical Report OAFlux Project (OA2008-01), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Zhang, Y., WB Rossow, AA Lacis, V Oinas, MI Mishchenk (2004), Calculation of radiative fluxes from the surface to top of atmsophere based on ISCCP and other global data sets. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984-2012) 109 (D19).

Predictability of North Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability

PubMed

Griffies; Bryan

1997-01-10

Atmospheric weather systems become unpredictable beyond a few weeks, but climate variations can be predictable over much longer periods because of the coupling of the ocean and atmosphere. With the use of a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the North Atlantic may have climatic predictability on the order of a decade or longer. These results suggest that variations of the dominant multidecadal sea surface temperature patterns in the North Atlantic, which have been associated with changes in climate over Eurasia, can be predicted if an adequate and sustainable system for monitoring the Atlantic Ocean exists.

Preliminary Study on Coupling Wave-Tide-Storm Surges Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, S.; Park, S.; Seo, J.; Kim, K.

2008-12-01

The Korean Peninsula is surrounded by the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and East Sea. This complex oceanographic system includes large tides in the Yellow Sea and seasonally varying monsoon and typhoon events. For Korea's coastal regions, floods caused by wave and storm surges are among the most serious threats. To predict more accurate wave and storm surge, the development of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system is essential. For the time being, wave and storm surges predictions are still made separately in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and most operational institute. However, many researchers have emphasized the effects of tides and storm surges on wind waves and recommended further investigations into the effects of wave-tide-storm surges interactions and coupling module on wave heights. However, tidal height and current give a great effect on the wave prediction in the Yellow sea where is very high tide and related research is not enough. At present, KMA has operated the wave (RWAM : Regional Wave Model) and storm surges/tide prediction system (RTSM : Regional Tide/Storm Surges Model) for ocean forecasting. The RWAM is WAVEWATCH III which is a third generation wave model developed by Tolman (1989). The RTSM is based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model, Blumberg and Mellor, 1987). The RWAM and RTSM cover the northwestern Pacific Ocean from 115°E to 150°E and from 20°N to 52°N. The horizontal grid intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. The development, testing and application of a coupling module in which wave-tide-storm surges are incorporated within the frame of KMA Ocean prediction system, has been considered as a step forward in respect of ocean forecasting. In addition, advanced wave prediction model will be applicable to the effect of ocean in the weather forecasting system. The main purpose of this study is to show how the coupling module developed and to report on a series of experiments dealing with the sensitivities and real case prediction of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system.

Evidence of weak land-atmosphere coupling under varying bare soil conditions: Are fully coupled Darcy/Navier-Stokes models necessary for simulating soil moisture dynamics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illangasekare, T. H.; Trautz, A. C.; Howington, S. E.; Cihan, A.

2017-12-01

It is a well-established fact that the land and atmosphere form a continuum in which the individual domains are coupled by heat and mass transfer processes such as bare-soil evaporation. Soil moisture dynamics can be simulated at the representative elementary volume (REV) scale using decoupled and fully coupled Darcy/Navier-Stokes models. Decoupled modeling is an asynchronous approach in which flow and transport in the soil and atmosphere is simulated independently; the two domains are coupled out of time-step via prescribed flux parameterizations. Fully coupled modeling in contrast, solves the governing equations for flow and transport in both domains simultaneously with the use of coupling interface boundary conditions. This latter approach, while being able to provide real-time two-dimensional feedbacks, is considerably more complex and computationally intensive. In this study, we investigate whether fully coupled models are necessary, or if the simpler decoupled models can sufficiently capture soil moisture dynamics under varying land preparations. A series of intermediate-scale physical and numerical experiments were conducted in which soil moisture distributions and evaporation estimates were monitored at high spatiotemporal resolutions for different heterogeneous packing and soil roughness scenarios. All experimentation was conducted at the newly developed Center for Experimental Study of Subsurface Environmental Processes (CESEP) wind tunnel-porous media user test-facility at the Colorado School of. Near-surface atmospheric measurements made during the experiments demonstrate that the land-atmosphere coupling was relatively weak and insensitive to the applied edaphic and surface conditions. Simulations with a decoupled multiphase heat and mass transfer model similarly show little sensitivity to local variations in atmospheric forcing; a single, simple flux parameterization can sufficiently capture the soil moisture dynamics (evaporation and redistribution) as long as the subsurface conditions (i.e., heterogeneity) are properly described. These findings suggest that significant improvements to simulations results should not be expected if fully coupled modeling were adopted in scenarios of weak land-atmosphere coupling in the context of bare soil evaporation.

Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2016-12-01

Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few centuries to obtain robust estimates of the contribution of ice sheet melt to SLR.

SST and OLR relationship during Indian summer monsoon: a coupled climate modelling perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Hazra, Anupam; Pokhrel, Samir; Chakrabarty, Chandrima; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Sreenivas, P.

2018-04-01

The study mainly investigates sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) relationships in coupled climate model. To support the analysis, high-level cloud and OLR relationship is also investigated. High-level cloud and OLR relationship depicts significant negative correlation over the entire monsoon regime. Coupled climate model is able to produce the same. SST and OLR relationship in observation also depicts significant negative relationship, in particular, over the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) region. Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is able to portray the negative relationship over EIO region; however, it is underestimated as compared to observation. Significant negative correlations elucidate that local SSTs regulate the convection and further it initiates Bjerknes feedback in the central Indian Ocean. It connotes that SST anomalies during monsoon period tend to be determined by oceanic forcing. The heat content of the coastal Bay of Bengal shows highest response to EIO SST by a lag of 1 month. It suggests that the coastal region of the Bay of Bengal is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which might have come from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Sea surface height anomalies, depth at 20 °C isotherms and depth at 26 isotherms also supports the above hypothesis. Composite analysis based on EIO index and coupled climate model sensitivity experiments also suggest that the coastal Bay of Bengal region is marked by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, which are propagated from EIO at a time lag of 1 month. Thus, SST and OLR relationship pinpoints that the Bay of Bengal OLR (convection) is governed by local ocean-atmospheric coupling, which is influenced by the delayed response from EIO brought forward through oceanic planetary waves at a lag of 1 month. These results have utmost predictive value for seasonal and extended range forecasting. Thus, OLR and SST relationship can constitute a pivotal role in investigating the atmosphere-ocean interaction.

δ18O water isotope in the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.0) - Part 3: A paleoperspective based on present-day data-model comparison for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caley, T.; Roche, D. M.

2013-03-01

Oxygen stable isotopes (18O) are among the most usual tools in paleoclimatology/paleoceanography. Simulation of oxygen stable isotopes allows testing how the past variability of these isotopes in water can be interpreted. By modelling the proxy directly in the model, the results can also be directly compared with the data. Water isotopes have been implemented in the global three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM allowing fully coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations. In this study, we present the validation of the model results for present day climate against global database for oxygen stable isotopes in carbonates. The limitation of the model together with the processes operating in the natural environment reveal the complexity of use the continental calcite 18O signal of speleothems for a data-model comparison exercise. On the contrary, the reconstructed surface ocean calcite δ18O signal in iLOVECLIM does show a very good agreement with late Holocene database (foraminifers) at the global and regional scales. Our results indicate that temperature and the isotopic composition of the seawater are the main control on the fossil δ18O signal recorded in foraminifer shells and that depth habitat and seasonality play a role but have secondary importance. We argue that a data-model comparison for surface ocean calcite δ18O in past climate, such as the last glacial maximum (≈21 000 yr), could constitute an interesting tool for mapping the potential shifts of the frontal systems and circulation changes throughout time. Similarly, the potential changes in intermediate oceanic circulation systems in the past could be documented by a data (benthic foraminifers)-model comparison exercise whereas future investigations are necessary in order to quantitatively compare the results with data for the deep ocean.

Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.

2015-12-01

Surface albedo changes from anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) represent the second-largest negative radiative forcing behind aerosol during the industrial era. Using a new reconstruction of ALCC during the Holocene era by Kaplan et al. [2011], we quantify the local and global temperature response induced by Holocene ALCC in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). With 1-degree resolution of the CCSM4 slab-ocean model,we find that Holocene ALCC cause a global cooling of 0.17 °C due to the biogeophysical effects of land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture, radiative and heat fluxes. On the global scale, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC from carbon emissions dominate the biogeophysical effects by causing 0.9 °C global warming. The net effects of Holocene ALCC amount to a global warming of 0.73 °C during the pre-industrial era, which is comparable to the ~0.8 °C warming during industrial times. On local to regional scales, such as parts of Europe, North America and Asia, the biogeophysical effects of Holocene ALCC are significant and comparable to the biogeochemical effect. The lack of ocean dynamics in the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations could underestimate the climate sensitivity because of the lack of feedbacks from ocean heat transport [Kutzbach et al., 2013; Manabe and Bryan, 1985]. In 1° CCSM4 fully coupled simulations, the climate sensitivity is ~65% larger than the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations during the Holocene (5.3 °C versus 3.2 °C) [Kutzbach et al., 2013]. With this greater climate sensitivity, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could have caused a global warming of ~1.5 °C, and the net biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could cause a global warming of 1.2 °C during the preindustrial era in our simulations, which is 50% higher than the global warming of ~0.8 °C during industrial times.

A Watched Ocean World Never Boils: Inspecting the Geochemical Impact on Ocean Worlds from Their Thermal Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiers, E. M.; Schmidt, B. E.

2018-05-01

I aim to acquire better understanding of coupled thermal evolution and geochemical fluxes of an ocean world through a box model. A box model divides the system into plainer elements with realistically-solvable, dynamic equations.

Determination and impact of surface radiative processes for TOGA COARE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, Judith A.; Ackerman, Thomas; Rossow, William B.; Webster, Peter J.

1991-01-01

Experiments using atmospheric general circulation models have shown that the atmospheric circulation is very sensitive to small changes in sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific Ocean warm pool region. The mutual sensitivity of the ocean and the atmosphere in the warm pool region places stringent requirements on models of the coupled ocean atmosphere system. At present, the situation is such that diagnostic studies using available data sets have been unable to balance the surface energy budget in the warm pool region to better than 50 to 80 W/sq m. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) is an observation and modelling program that aims specifically at the elucidation of the physical process which determine the mean and transient state of the warm pool region and the manner in which the warm pool interacts with the global ocean and atmosphere. This project focuses on one very important aspect of the ocean atmosphere interface component of TOGA COARE, namely the temporal and spatial variability of surface radiative fluxes in the warm pool region.

An index to assess the health and benefits of the global ocean.

PubMed

Halpern, Benjamin S; Longo, Catherine; Hardy, Darren; McLeod, Karen L; Samhouri, Jameal F; Katona, Steven K; Kleisner, Kristin; Lester, Sarah E; O'Leary, Jennifer; Ranelletti, Marla; Rosenberg, Andrew A; Scarborough, Courtney; Selig, Elizabeth R; Best, Benjamin D; Brumbaugh, Daniel R; Chapin, F Stuart; Crowder, Larry B; Daly, Kendra L; Doney, Scott C; Elfes, Cristiane; Fogarty, Michael J; Gaines, Steven D; Jacobsen, Kelsey I; Karrer, Leah Bunce; Leslie, Heather M; Neeley, Elizabeth; Pauly, Daniel; Polasky, Stephen; Ris, Bud; St Martin, Kevin; Stone, Gregory S; Sumaila, U Rashid; Zeller, Dirk

2012-08-30

The ocean plays a critical role in supporting human well-being, from providing food, livelihoods and recreational opportunities to regulating the global climate. Sustainable management aimed at maintaining the flow of a broad range of benefits from the ocean requires a comprehensive and quantitative method to measure and monitor the health of coupled human–ocean systems. We created an index comprising ten diverse public goals for a healthy coupled human–ocean system and calculated the index for every coastal country. Globally, the overall index score was 60 out of 100 (range 36–86), with developed countries generally performing better than developing countries, but with notable exceptions. Only 5% of countries scored higher than 70, whereas 32% scored lower than 50. The index provides a powerful tool to raise public awareness, direct resource management, improve policy and prioritize scientific research.

State and Parameter Estimation for a Coupled Ocean--Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, M.; Kondrashov, D.; Sun, C.

2006-12-01

The El-Nino/Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) dominates interannual climate variability and plays, therefore, a key role in seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Much is known by now about the main physical mechanisms that give rise to and modulate ENSO, but the values of several parameters that enter these mechanisms are an important unknown. We apply Extended Kalman Filtering (EKF) for both model state and parameter estimation in an intermediate, nonlinear, coupled ocean--atmosphere model of ENSO. The coupled model consists of an upper-ocean, reduced-gravity model of the Tropical Pacific and a steady-state atmospheric response to the sea surface temperature (SST). The model errors are assumed to be mainly in the atmospheric wind stress, and assimilated data are equatorial Pacific SSTs. Model behavior is very sensitive to two key parameters: (i) μ, the ocean-atmosphere coupling coefficient between SST and wind stress anomalies; and (ii) δs, the surface-layer coefficient. Previous work has shown that δs determines the period of the model's self-sustained oscillation, while μ measures the degree of nonlinearity. Depending on the values of these parameters, the spatio-temporal pattern of model solutions is either that of a delayed oscillator or of a westward propagating mode. Estimation of these parameters is tested first on synthetic data and allows us to recover the delayed-oscillator mode starting from model parameter values that correspond to the westward-propagating case. Assimilation of SST data from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis-2 shows that the parameters can vary on fairly short time scales and switch between values that approximate the two distinct modes of ENSO behavior. Rapid adjustments of these parameters occur, in particular, during strong ENSO events. Ways to apply EKF parameter estimation efficiently to state-of-the-art coupled ocean--atmosphere GCMs will be discussed.

Status and Plans for Reanalysis at NASA/GMAO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelaro, Ron

2017-01-01

Reanalysis plays a critical role in GMAOs goal to enhance NASA's program of Earth observations, providing vital data sets for climate research and the development of future missions. As the breadth of NASAs observations expands to include multiple components of the Earth system, so does the need to assimilate observations from currently uncoupled components of the system in a more physically consistent manner. GMAOs most recent reanalysis of the satellite era, MERRA-2, has completed the period 1980-present, and is now running as a continuing global climate analysis with two- to three-week latency. MERRA-2 assimilates meteorological and aerosol observations as a weakly coupled assimilation system as a first step toward GMAOs longer term goal of developing an integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) capability that will couple assimilation systems for the atmosphere, ocean, land and chemistry. The GMAO strategy is to progress incrementally toward an IESA through an evolving combination of coupled systems and offline component reanalyses driven by, for example, MERRA-2 atmospheric forcing. Most recently, the GMAO has implemented a weakly coupled assimilation scheme for analyzing ocean skin temperature within the existing atmospheric analysis. The scheme uses background fields from a near-surface ocean diurnal layer model to assimilate surface-sensitive radiances plus in-situ observations along with all other observations in the atmospheric assimilation system. In addition, MERRA-2-driven simulations of the ocean (plus sea ice) and atmospheric chemistry (for the EOS period) are currently underway, as is the development of a coupled atmosphere-ocean assimilation system. This talk will describe the status of these ongoing efforts and the planned steps toward an IESA capability for climate research.

Regional Effects of the Mount Pinatubo Eruption on the Middle East and the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2017-11-01

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo had dramatic effects on the regional climate in the Middle East. Though acknowledged, these effects have not been thoroughly studied. To fill this gap and to advance understanding of the mechanisms that control variability in the Middle East's regional climate, we simulated the impact of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption using a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling system set for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. We used the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework, which couples the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). We modified the WRF model to account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Our coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations verified by available observations revealed strong perturbations in the energy balance of the Red Sea, which drove thermal and circulation responses. Our modeling approach allowed us to separate changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by the impact of the volcano from direct regional radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols. The atmospheric circulation effect was significantly stronger than the direct volcanic aerosols effect. We found that the Red Sea response to the Pinatubo eruption was stronger and qualitatively different from that of the global ocean system. Our results suggest that major volcanic eruptions significantly affect the climate in the Middle East and the Red Sea and should be carefully taken into account in assessments of long-term climate variability and warming trends in MENA and the Red Sea.

Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark

This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments inmore » which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.« less

Reactive Transport Modeling of Induced Calcite Precipitation Reaction Fronts in Porous Media Using A Parallel, Fully Coupled, Fully Implicit Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, L.; Huang, H.; Gaston, D.; Redden, G. D.; Fox, D. T.; Fujita, Y.

2010-12-01

Inducing mineral precipitation in the subsurface is one potential strategy for immobilizing trace metal and radionuclide contaminants. Generating mineral precipitates in situ can be achieved by manipulating chemical conditions, typically through injection or in situ generation of reactants. How these reactants transport, mix and react within the medium controls the spatial distribution and composition of the resulting mineral phases. Multiple processes, including fluid flow, dispersive/diffusive transport of reactants, biogeochemical reactions and changes in porosity-permeability, are tightly coupled over a number of scales. Numerical modeling can be used to investigate the nonlinear coupling effects of these processes which are quite challenging to explore experimentally. Many subsurface reactive transport simulators employ a de-coupled or operator-splitting approach where transport equations and batch chemistry reactions are solved sequentially. However, such an approach has limited applicability for biogeochemical systems with fast kinetics and strong coupling between chemical reactions and medium properties. A massively parallel, fully coupled, fully implicit Reactive Transport simulator (referred to as “RAT”) based on a parallel multi-physics object-oriented simulation framework (MOOSE) has been developed at the Idaho National Laboratory. Within this simulator, systems of transport and reaction equations can be solved simultaneously in a fully coupled, fully implicit manner using the Jacobian Free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) method with additional advanced computing capabilities such as (1) physics-based preconditioning for solution convergence acceleration, (2) massively parallel computing and scalability, and (3) adaptive mesh refinements for 2D and 3D structured and unstructured mesh. The simulator was first tested against analytical solutions, then applied to simulating induced calcium carbonate mineral precipitation in 1D columns and 2D flow cells as analogs to homogeneous and heterogeneous porous media, respectively. In 1D columns, calcium carbonate mineral precipitation was driven by urea hydrolysis catalyzed by urease enzyme, and in 2D flow cells, calcium carbonate mineral forming reactants were injected sequentially, forming migrating reaction fronts that are typically highly nonuniform. The RAT simulation results for the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitates, reaction rates and major species in the system, and also for changes in porosity and permeability, were compared to both laboratory experimental data and computational results obtained using other reactive transport simulators. The comparisons demonstrate the ability of RAT to simulate complex nonlinear systems and the advantages of fully coupled approaches, over de-coupled methods, for accurate simulation of complex, dynamic processes such as engineered mineral precipitation in subsurface environments.

Physical Controls on Copepod Aggregations in the Gulf of Maine

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

endangered North Atlantic right whales . Certain ocean processes may generate dense copepod aggrega- tions, while others may destroy them; this thesis...for tropical ocean - global atmosphere coupled- ocean atmosphere response experiment. Journal of Geophysical Research, 101, 3747–3764. Fong, D., W...Oceanography/ Applied Ocean Science and Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution MIT/WHOI 2013-18

Significant Weakening of Brewer-Dobson Circulation Trends Over the 21st Century as a Consequence of the Montreal Protocol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Abalos, Marta; Garcia, Rolando; Kinnison, Doug; Randel, William J.

2018-01-01

It is well established that increasing greenhouse gases, notably CO2, will cause an acceleration of the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) by the end of this century. We here present compelling new evidence that ozone depleting substances are also key drivers of BDC trends. We do so by analyzing and contrasting small ensembles of "single-forcing" integrations with a stratosphere resolving atmospheric model with interactive chemistry, coupled to fully interactive ocean, land, and sea ice components. First, confirming previous work, we show that increasing concentrations of ozone depleting substances have contributed a large fraction of the BDC trends in the late twentieth century. Second, we show that the phasing out of ozone depleting substances in coming decades—as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol—will cause a considerable reduction in BDC trends until the ozone hole is completely healed, toward the end of the 21st century.

Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene

PubMed Central

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Zhang, Qiong; Muschitiello, Francesco; Lu, Zhengyao; Chafik, Léon; Niedermeyer, Eva M.; Stager, J. Curt; Cobb, Kim M.; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-01-01

The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO’s response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well. PMID:28685758

Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene.

PubMed

Pausata, Francesco S R; Zhang, Qiong; Muschitiello, Francesco; Lu, Zhengyao; Chafik, Léon; Niedermeyer, Eva M; Stager, J Curt; Cobb, Kim M; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-07-07

The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO's response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well.

Remote tropical and sub-tropical responses to Amazon deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badger, Andrew M.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

2016-05-01

Replacing natural vegetation with realistic tropical crops over the Amazon region in a global Earth system model impacts vertical transport of heat and moisture, modifying the interaction between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free atmosphere. Vertical velocity is decreased over a majority of the Amazon region, shifting the ascending branch and modifying the seasonality of the Hadley circulation over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans. Using a simple model that relates circulation changes to heating anomalies and generalizing the upper-atmosphere temperature response to deforestation, agreement is found between the response in the fully-coupled model and the simple solution. These changes to the large-scale dynamics significantly impact precipitation in several remote regions, namely sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, the southwestern United States and extratropical South America, suggesting non-local climate repercussions for large-scale land use changes in the tropics are possible.

Parallel Computation of Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave Coupled Storm Surge Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K.; Yamashita, T.

2003-12-01

Ocean-atmosphere interactions are very important in the formation and development of tropical storms. These interactions are dominant in exchanging heat, momentum, and moisture fluxes. Heat flux is usually computed using a bulk equation. In this equation air-sea interface supplies heat energy to the atmosphere and to the storm. Dynamical interaction is most often one way in which it is the atmosphere that drives the ocean. The winds transfer momentum to both ocean surface waves and ocean current. The wind wave makes an important role in the exchange of the quantities of motion, heat and a substance between the atmosphere and the ocean. Storm surges can be considered as the phenomena of mean sea-level changes, which are the result of the frictional stresses of strong winds blowing toward the land and causing the set level and the low atmospheric pressure at the centre of the cyclone can additionally raise the sea level. In addition to the rise in water level itself, another wave factor must be considered. A rise of mean sea level due to white-cap wave dissipation should be considered. In bounded bodies of water, such as small seas, wind driven sea level set up is much serious than inverted barometer effects, in which the effects of wind waves on wind-driven current play an important role. It is necessary to develop the coupled system of the full spectral third-generation wind-wave model (WAM or WAVEWATCH III), the meso-scale atmosphere model (MM5) and the coastal ocean model (POM) for simulating these physical interactions. As the component of coupled system is so heavy for personal usage, the parallel computing system should be developed. In this study, first, we developed the coupling system of the atmosphere model, ocean wave model and the coastal ocean model, in the Beowulf System, for the simulation of the storm surge. It was applied to the storm surge simulation caused by Typhoon Bart (T9918) in the Yatsushiro Sea. The atmosphere model and the ocean model have been made the parallel codes by SPMD methods. The wave-current interface model was developed by defining the wave breaking stresses. And we developed the coupling program to collect and distribute the exchanging data with the parallel system. Every models and coupler are executed at same time, and they calculate own jobs and pass data with organic system. MPMD method programming was performed to couple the models. The coupler and each models united by the separated group, and they calculated by the group unit. Also they passed message when exchanging data by global unit. The data are exchanged every 60-second model time that is the least common multiple time of the atmosphere model, the wave model and the ocean model. The model was applied to the storm surge simulation in the Yatsushiro Sea, in which we could not simulated the observed maximum surge height with the numerical model that did not include the wave breaking stress. It is confirmed that the simulation which includes the wave breaking stress effects can produce the observed maximum height, 450 cm, at Matsuai.

Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasini, Antonello; Triacca, Umberto; Attanasio, Alessandro

2017-08-01

The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean-atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001-2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere-ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.

Mesoscale Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Enhances the Transfer of Wind Energy into the Ocean.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, D.; Munnich, M.; Frenger, I.; Gruber, N.

2016-02-01

Ocean eddies receive their energy mainly from the atmospheric energy input at large scales, while it is thought that direct atmosphere-ocean interactions at this scale contribute little to the eddies' energy balance. If anything, the prevailing view is that mesoscale atmosphere-ocean interactions lead to a reduction of the energy transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean. From satellite observations, modelling studies and theory, we present results in contrast to this. Specifically, we describe a novel mechanism that provides a new energy pathway from the atmosphere into the ocean that directly injects energy at the mesoscale, shortcutting the classical main pathway from the larger scales. Our hypothesis is based upon recent evidence that the `coupling strength' i.e., the magnitude of the atmospheric response to underlying sea surface temperature anomalies associated with eddies, is dependent upon the background wind speed. We argue that ocean eddies rarely live in an area of constant background wind, particularly not in the Southern Ocean, and that the horizontal gradients in the wind across ocean eddies lead to an increased/decreased work on one side of the eddy that is not compensated for on the other. Essentially, this asymmetry provides a `spin up' or a `spin down' forcing such that the net result is an increase in kinetic energy for both warm and cold core eddies that reside in a negative wind gradient and a decrease in kinetic energy when they are located in a positive wind gradient. This result has strong implications for the Southern Ocean, where large regions of positive and negative wind gradients exist on both sides of the wind maximum. We show from diagnosing the local eddy scale and domain wide energy balance in a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean regional model in the South Atlantic, there are different energy transfers in the two regions and due to the different eddy abundances that this mechanism increases the net kinetic energy contained in the ocean mesoscale eddy field by up to 10-15%.

Coupled ice-ocean dynamics in the marginal ice zones Upwelling/downwelling and eddy generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, S.

1986-01-01

This study is aimed at modeling mesoscale processes such as upwelling/downwelling and ice edge eddies in the marginal ice zones. A two-dimensional coupled ice-ocean model is used for the study. The ice model is coupled to the reduced gravity ocean model through interfacial stresses. The parameters of the ocean model were chosen so that the dynamics would be nonlinear. The model was tested by studying the dynamics of upwelling. Wings parallel to the ice edge with the ice on the right produce upwelling because the air-ice momentum flux is much greater than air-ocean momentum flux; thus the Ekman transport is greater than the ice than in the open water. The stability of the upwelling and downwelling jets is discussed. The downwelling jet is found to be far more unstable than the upwelling jet because the upwelling jet is stabilized by the divergence. The constant wind field exerted on a varying ice cover will generate vorticity leading to enhanced upwelling/downwelling regions, i.e., wind-forced vortices. Steepening and strengthening of vortices are provided by the nonlinear terms. When forcing is time-varying, the advection terms will also redistribute the vorticity. The wind reversals will separate the vortices from the ice edge, so that the upwelling enhancements are pushed to the open ocean and the downwelling enhancements are pushed underneath the ice.

Longitudinal biases in the Seychelles Dome simulated by 35 ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagura, Motoki; Sasaki, Wataru; Tozuka, Tomoki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-02-01

Seychelles Dome refers to the shallow climatological thermocline in the southwestern Indian Ocean, where ocean wave dynamics efficiently affect sea surface temperature, allowing sea surface temperature anomalies to be predicted up to 1-2 years in advance. Accurate reproduction of the dome by ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is essential for successful seasonal predictions in the Indian Ocean. This study examines the Seychelles Dome as simulated by 35 CGCMs, including models used in phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region. This result is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome. In the models reproducing an eastward-displaced dome, easterly biases are prominent along the equator in boreal summer and fall, which result in shallow thermocline biases along the Java and Sumatra coasts via Kelvin wave dynamics and a spurious upwelling dome in the region. Compared to the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models are even worse in simulating the dome longitudes.

Investigation of Surface Flux Feedbacks for Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Pete

2010-01-01

The use of "dynamical coupling" rules allows for identifying coupled vs. uncoupled anomalies and one-way interaction. Results of this study are consistent with those of Pena et al. (2003,2004) although using a more recent reanalysis at higher resolution. Find more atmosphere-forcing coupled anomalies in the extratropics and ocean-forcing anomalies in the tropics. The LHF and SWR show the largest magnitude anomalies in the composite analysis. The turbulent flux responses are due to interactions between the differing responses in wind speed and near-surface gradients. The radiative fluxes responses are primarily tied to changes in cloud fraction, as expected, though longwave response can be tied more to changes in the upwelling component.

Understanding and Projecting Climate and Human Impacts on Terrestrial-Coastal Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; Tian, H.; He, R.; Fennel, K.

2017-12-01

Changing climate and land use practices have the potential to dramatically alter coupled hydrologic-biogeochemical processes and associated movement of water, carbon and nutrients through various terrestrial reservoirs into rivers, estuaries, and coastal ocean waters. Consequences of climate- and land use-related changes will be particularly evident in large river basins and their associated coastal outflow regions. Here, we describe a NASA Carbon Monitoring System project that employs an integrated suite of models in conjunction with remotely sensed as well as targeted in situ observations with the objectives of describing processes controlling fluxes on land and their coupling to riverine, estuarine and ocean ecosystems. The nature of our approach, coupling models of terrestrial and ocean ecosystem dynamics and associated carbon processes, allows for assessment of how societal and human-related land use, land use change and forestry and climate-related change affect terrestrial carbon transport as well as export of materials through watersheds to the coastal margins. Our objectives include the following: 1) Provide representation of carbon processes in the terrestrial ecosystem to understand how changes in land use and climatic conditions influence the export of materials to the coastal ocean, 2) Couple the terrestrial exports of carbon, nutrients and freshwater to a coastal biogeochemical model and examine how different climate and land use scenarios influence fluxes across the land-ocean interface, and 3) Project future changes under different scenarios of climate and human impact, and support user needs related to carbon management and other activities (e.g., water quality, hypoxia, ocean acidification). This research is providing information that will contribute to determining an overall carbon balance in North America as well as describing and predicting how human- and climate-related changes impact coastal water quality including possible effects of coastal eutrophication and hypoxia.

Projections of oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century using the IPSL Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Rey, J.; Bopp, L.; Gehlen, M.; Tagliabue, A.; Gruber, N.

2015-07-01

The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known about how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. Assuming nitrification as the dominant N2O formation pathway, we implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production which differ primarily under low-oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high-CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12 % in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 TgN yr-1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), i.e., in the eastern tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production, associated primarily with denitrification. While there are many uncertainties in the relative contribution and changes in the N2O production pathways, the increasing storage seems unequivocal and determines largely the decrease in N2O emissions in the future. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around -0.009 W m-2 K-1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assessment for a potential balance between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next-generation Earth system models.

Mercury in the global atmosphere: Chemistry, deposition, and land-atmosphere interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selin, Noelle Eckley

This thesis uses a global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), in conjunction with worldwide atmospheric observations, to better understand and quantify biogeochemical cycling and deposition of mercury. GEOS-Chem includes gaseous elemental (Hg(0)), divalent (Hg(II)), and particulate (Hg(P)) mercury in the atmosphere, and includes coupling with the ocean, developed at University of Washington, and with land, developed in this work. Observed concentrations and seasonal variation of total gaseous mercury (TGM) are consistent with photochemical oxidation for Hg(0) partly balanced by in-cloud photochemical reduction of Hg(II). High TGM concentrations from ship cruises in the Northern Hemisphere are not reproduced, implying a problem either in measurements or our understanding of sources. Model results, supported by observations, suggest Hg(II) to be dominant at higher altitudes. Diurnal variability observed at marine sites suggests uptake by sea salt aerosols is a major deposition mechanism. Global biogeochemical cycles of mercury are constructed for pre-industrial and present-day using the first fully-coupled, global 3-D land-atmosphere-ocean mercury model. Atmosphere-surface cycling increases the effective mercury lifetime more than threefold against transfer to long-lived soil and ocean reservoirs. It is estimated that 68% of deposition to the U.S. is anthropogenic, including 16% from the legacy of anthropogenic mercury accumulated in soils and the deep ocean. Observed seasonal variations in U.S. wet deposition are used to constrain redox and deposition processes influencing the fate of North American and international emissions. The model reproduces the seasonal variation and latitudinal gradient of wet deposition flux measured in the eastern U.S., with a maximum in the Southeast and higher fluxes in summer and at lower latitudes. Seasonal variation is attributed to variations in oxidation and wet deposition rates at northern latitudes, and to seasonal precipitation and deep convective scavenging in the Southeast. The estimated contribution of North American emissions to U.S. deposition is 23%, with a maximum >50% in the Midwest. International policy developments on mercury since 1970 are analyzed. Three policy options are compared: a global treaty, regulation under the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, and voluntary partnerships. It is concluded that policy efforts at multiple governance scales are necessary to address mercury pollution effectively.

Impact of glider data assimilation on the Monterey Bay model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulman, Igor; Rowley, Clark; Anderson, Stephanie; DeRada, Sergio; Kindle, John; Martin, Paul; Doyle, James; Cummings, James; Ramp, Steve; Chavez, Francisco; Fratantoni, David; Davis, Russ

2009-02-01

Glider observations were essential components of the observational program in the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) experiment in the Monterey Bay area during summer of 2003. This paper is focused on the impact of the assimilation of glider temperature and salinity observations on the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) predictions of surface and subsurface properties. The modeling system consists of an implementation of the NCOM model using a curvilinear, orthogonal grid with 1-4 km resolution, with finest resolution around the bay. The model receives open boundary conditions from a regional (9 km resolution) NCOM implementation for the California Current System, and surface fluxes from the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) atmospheric model at 3 km resolution. The data assimilation component of the system is a version of the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system, which is used for assimilation of the glider data into the NCOM model of the Monterey Bay area. The NCODA is a fully 3D multivariate optimum interpolation system that produces simultaneous analyses of temperature, salinity, geopotential, and vector velocity. Assimilation of glider data improves the surface temperature at the mooring locations for the NCOM model hindcast and nowcasts, and for the short-range (1-1.5 days) forecasts. It is shown that it is critical to have accurate atmospheric forcing for more extended forecasts. Assimilation of glider data provided better agreement with independent observations (for example, with aircraft measured SSTs) of the model-predicted and observed spatial distributions of surface temperature and salinity. Mooring observations of subsurface temperature and salinity show sharp changes in the thermocline and halocline depths during transitions from upwelling to relaxation and vice versa. The non-assimilative run also shows these transitions in subsurface temperature; but they are not as well defined. For salinity, the non-assimilative run significantly differs from the observations. However, the glider data assimilating run is able to show comparable results with observations of thermocline as well as halocline depths during upwelling and relaxation events in the Monterey Bay area. It is also shown that during the relaxation of wind, the data assimilative run has higher value of subsurface velocity complex correlation with observations than the non-assimilative run.

Observations and High-Resolution Numerical Simulations of a Non-Developing Tropical Disturbance in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

potential energy CFSR Climate Forecast System Reanalysis COAMPS Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System DA data assimilation DART Data...developing (TCS025) tropical disturbance using the adjoint and tangent linear models for the Coupled Ocean – Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS...for Medium-range Weather Forecasts ELDORA ELectra DOppler RAdar EOL Earth Observing Laboratory GPS global positioning system GTS Global

Sea Ice in the NCEP Seasonal Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Saha, S.; Grumbine, R. W.; Bailey, D. A.; Carton, J.; Penny, S. G.

2017-12-01

Sea ice is known to play a significant role in the global climate system. For a weather or climate forecast system (CFS), it is important that the realistic distribution of sea ice is represented. Sea ice prediction is challenging; sea ice can form or melt, it can move with wind and/or ocean current; sea ice interacts with both the air above and ocean underneath, it influences by, and has impact on the air and ocean conditions. NCEP has developed coupled CFS (version 2, CFSv2) and also carried out CFS reanalysis (CFSR), which includes a coupled model with the NCEP global forecast system, a land model, an ocean model (GFDL MOM4), and a sea ice model. In this work, we present the NCEP coupled model, the CFSv2 sea ice component that includes a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model and a simple "assimilation" scheme, how sea ice has been assimilated in CFSR, the characteristics of the sea ice from CFSR and CFSv2, and the improvements of sea ice needed for future seasonal prediction system, part of the Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which is being developed and under testing, including sea ice data assimilation with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Preliminary results from the UGCS testing will also be presented.

Extended-range ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis in the northern Indian Ocean: Modulation of Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Xiouhua; Hsu, Pang-chi

2011-08-01

A conventional atmosphere-ocean coupled system initialized with NCEP FNL analysis has successfully predicted a tropical cyclogenesis event in the northern Indian Ocean with a lead time of two weeks. The coupled forecasting system reproduces the westerly wind bursts in the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with an eastward-propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event as well as the accompanying northward-propagating westerly and convective disturbances. After reaching the Bay of Bengal, this northward-propagating Intra-Seasonal Variability (ISV) fosters the tropical cyclogenesis. The present finding demonstrates that a realistic MJO/ISV prediction will make the extended-range forecasting of tropical cyclogenesis possible and also calls for improved representation of the MJO/ISV in contemporary weather and climate forecast models.

Toward Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, S.; Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Seefeldt, M. W.

2017-12-01

The Regional Arctic system model has been developed and used to advance the current state of Arctic modeling and increase the skill of sea ice forecast. RASM is a fully coupled, limited-area model that includes the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land hydrology and runoff routing components and the flux coupler to exchange information among them. Boundary conditions are derived from NCEP Climate Forecasting System Reanalyses (CFSR) or Era Iterim (ERA-I) for hindcast simulations or from NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) for seasonal forecasts. We have used RASM to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN). Each year, we produced three SIOs for the September minimum, initialized on June 1, July 1 and August 1. In 2016, predictions used a simple linear regression model to correct for systematic biases and included the mean September sea ice extent, the daily minimum and the week of the minimum. In 2017, we produced a 12-member ensemble on June 1 and July 1, and 28-member ensemble August 1. The predictions of September 2017 included the pan-Arctic and regional Alaskan sea ice extent, daily and monthly mean pan-Arctic maps of sea ice probability, concentration and thickness. No bias correction was applied to the 2017 forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss future plans for RASM forecasts, which include increased resolution for model components, ecosystem predictions with marine biogeochemistry extensions (mBGC) to the ocean and sea ice components, and feasibility of optional boundary conditions using the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM).

Understanding Dry Bias in the Simulations of Indian Monsoon by CFSv2 Through Analysis of Moisture Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saheer, Sahana; Pathak, Amey; Mathew, Roxy; Ghosh, Subimal

2016-04-01

Simulations of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) with its seasonal and subseasonal characteristics is highly crucial for predictions/ projections towards sustainable agricultural planning and water resources management. The Climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2), the state of the art coupled climate model developed by National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is evaluated here for the simulations of ISM. Even though CFSv2 is a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initialization, its ISM simulations/ predictions/ projections, in terms of seasonal mean and variability are not satisfactory. Numerous works have been done for verifying the CFSv2 forecasts in terms of the seasonal mean, its mean and variability, active and break spells, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon interactions. Underestimation of JJAS precipitation over the Indian land mass is one of the major drawbacks of CFSv2. ISM gets the moisture required to maintain the precipitation from different oceanic and land sources. In this work, we find the fraction of moisture supplied by different sources in the CFSv2 simulations and the findings are compared with observed fractions. We also investigate the possible variations in the moisture contributions from these different sources. We suspect that the deviation in the relative moisture contribution from different sources to various sinks over the monsoon region has resulted in the observed dry bias. We also find that over the Arabian Sea region, which is the key moisture source of ISM, there is a premature built up of specific humidity during the month of May and a decline during the later months of JJAS. This is also one of the reasons for the underestimation of JJAS mean precipitation.

On the generation of internal wave modes by surface waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harlander, Uwe; Kirschner, Ian; Maas, Christian; Zaussinger, Florian

2016-04-01

Internal gravity waves play an important role in the ocean since they transport energy and momentum and the can lead to mixing when they break. Surface waves and internal gravity waves can interact. On the one hand, long internal waves imply a slow varying shear current that modifies the propagation of surface waves. Surface waves generated by the atmosphere can, on the other hand, excite internal waves by nonlinear interaction. Thereby a surface wave packet consisting of two close frequencies can resonate with a low frequency internal wave (Phillips, 1966). From a theoretical point of view, the latter has been studied intensively by using a 2-layer model, i.e. a surface layer with a strong density contrast and an internal layer with a comparable weak density contrast (Ball, 1964; Craig et al., 2010). In the present work we analyse the wave coupling for a continuously stratified fluid using a fully non-linear 2D numerical model (OpenFoam) and compare this with laboratory experiments (see Lewis et al. 1974). Surface wave modes are used as initial condition and the time development of the dominant surface and internal waves are studied by spectral and harmonic analysis. For the simple geometry of a box, the results are compared with analytical spectra of surface and gravity waves. Ball, F.K. 1964: Energy transfer between external and internal gravity waves. J. Fluid Mech. 19, 465. Craig, W., Guyenne, P., Sulem, C. 2010: Coupling between internal and surface waves. Natural Hazards 57, 617-642. Lewis, J.E., Lake, B.M., Ko, D.R.S 1974: On the interaction of internal waves and surfacr gravity waves, J. Fluid Mech. 63, 773-800. Phillips, O.M. 1966: The dynamics of the upper ocean, Cambridge University Press, 336pp.

Simulation of Dust Radiative Impact on the Red Sea Using Coupled Regional Ocean/Atmosphere Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on the Middle East regional climate response to the dust aerosol radiative forcing. MODIS and SEVIRI satellite observations show extremely high (exceeding 1) dust optical depths over the southern Red Sea during the summer season. The significant north-to-south gradient of the dust optical depth over the Red Sea persists throughout the entire year. The radiative forcing of dust at the sea surface exceeds 120 Wm-2. The effect of this forcing to the Red Sea thermal regime and circulations is not well quantified yet. Therefore here we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of dust on the Red Sea. The WRF was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of dust. Daily spectral optical properties of dust are computed using Mie, T-matrix and geometric optics approaches, and are based on the SEVIRI climatological optical depth. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust causes 0.5-0.7K cooling of the Red Sea surface waters, and weakens the overturning circulation in the Red Sea. The salinity distribution, fresh water and heat budgets are significantly perturbed. This indicates that dust plays an important role in formation of the Red Sea energy balance and circulation regimes, and has to be thoroughly accounted for in the future modeling studies.

The evolution of a coupled ice shelf-ocean system under different climate states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosfeld, Klaus; Sandhäger, Henner

2004-07-01

Based on a new approach for coupled applications of an ice shelf model and an ocean general circulation model, we investigate the evolution of an ice shelf-ocean system and its sensitivity to changed climatic boundary conditions. Combining established 3D models into a coupled model system enabled us to study the reaction and feedbacks of each component to changes at their interface, the ice shelf base. After calculating the dynamics for prescribed initial ice shelf and bathymetric geometries, the basal mass balance determines the system evolution. In order to explore possible developments for given boundary conditions, an idealized geometry has been chosen, reflecting basic features of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The model system is found to be especially sensitive in regions where high ablation or accretion rates occur. Ice Shelf Water formation as well as the build up of a marine ice body, resulting from accretion of marine ice, is simulated, indicating strong interaction processes. To improve consistency between modeled and observed ice shelf behavior, we incorporate the typical cycle of steady ice front advance and sudden retreat due to tabular iceberg calving in our time-dependent simulations. Our basic hypothesis is that iceberg break off is associated with abrupt crack propagation along elongated anomalies of the inherent stress field of the ice body. This new concept yields glaciologically plausible results and represents an auspicious basis for the development of a thorough calving criterion. Experiments under different climatic conditions (ocean warming of 0.2 and 0.5 °C and doubled surface accumulation rates) show the coupled model system to be sensitive especially to ocean warming. Increased basal melt rates of 100% for the 0.5 °C ocean warming scenario and an asymmetric development of ice shelf thicknesses suggest a high vulnerability of ice shelf regions, which represent pivotal areas between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean.

Spacebased Observation of Global Ocean Surface Wind Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polito, P. S.; Liu, W. T.

1997-01-01

The ocean and the atmosphere are dynamically coupled by the transport of momentum which is driven by the wind shear at the sea surface. However, in situ wind measurements are relatively sparse over most of the world's ocean and are largely limited to the locations of shipping routes.

COUPLING BETWEEN THE COASTAL OCEAN AND YAQUINA BAY, OREGON: THE IMPORTANCE OF OCEANIC INPUTS RELATIVE TO OTHER NITROGEN SOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding of the role of oceanic input in nutrient loadings is important for understanding nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries adjacent to coastal upwelling regions as well as determining the natural background conditions. We examined the nitrogen sources to Yaqu...

Dissolved oxygen in two Oregon estuaries: Importance of the ocean-estuary connection

EPA Science Inventory

We examined the role of the ocean –estuary connection in influencing periodic reductions in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels in Yaquina and Yachats estuaries, Oregon, USA. In the Yaquina Estuary, there is close coupling between the coastal ocean and the estuary. As a result, low DO ...

Dissolved oxygen in two Oregon estuaries: The importance of the ocean-estuary connection

EPA Science Inventory

We examined the role of the ocean –estuary connection in influencing periodic reductions in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels in Yaquina and Yachats estuaries, Oregon, USA. In the Yaquina Estuary, there is close coupling between the coastal ocean and the estuary. As a result, low DO ...

The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germe, Agathe; Sévellec, Florian; Mignot, Juliette; Fedorov, Alexey; Nguyen, Sébastien; Swingedouw, Didier

2017-12-01

Decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic is largely related to ocean low frequency variability, whose sensitivity to initial conditions is not very well understood. Recently, three-dimensional oceanic temperature anomalies optimally perturbing the North Atlantic Mean Temperature (NAMT) have been computed via an optimization procedure using a linear adjoint to a realistic ocean general circulation model. The spatial pattern of the identified perturbations, localized in the North Atlantic, has the largest magnitude between 1000 and 4000 m depth. In the present study, the impacts of these perturbations on NAMT, on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and on climate in general are investigated in a global coupled model that uses the same ocean model as was used to compute the three-dimensional optimal perturbations. In the coupled model, these perturbations induce AMOC and NAMT anomalies peaking after 5 and 10 years, respectively, generally consistent with the ocean-only linear predictions. To further understand their impact, their magnitude was varied in a broad range. For initial perturbations with a magnitude comparable to the internal variability of the coupled model, the model response exhibits a strong signature in sea surface temperature and precipitation over North America and the Sahel region. The existence and impacts of these ocean perturbations have important implications for decadal prediction: they can be seen either as a source of predictability or uncertainty, depending on whether the current observing system can detect them or not. In fact, comparing the magnitude of the imposed perturbations with the uncertainty of available ocean observations such as Argo data or ocean state estimates suggests that only the largest perturbations used in this study could be detectable. This highlights the importance for decadal climate prediction of accurate ocean density initialisation in the North Atlantic at intermediate and greater depths.

Tracing Acoustic-Gravity Waves from the Ocean into the Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zabotin, N. A.; Godin, O. A.; Bullett, T. W.; Negrea, C.

2013-12-01

Ionospheric manifestations of tsunamis provide dramatic evidence of a connection between wave processes in the ocean and in the atmosphere. But tsunamis are only a transient feature of a more general phenomenon, infragravity waves (IGWs). IGWs are permanently present surface gravity waves in the ocean with periods longer than the longest periods (~30 s) of wind-generated waves. IGWs propagate transoceanic distances and, because of their long wavelengths (from ~1 km to hundreds of km), provide a mechanism for coupling wave processes in the ocean, atmosphere, and the solid Earth. The notion that tsunamis may generate waves in the upper atmosphere has existed for a long time but no quantitative coupling theory for the background waves has been proposed. We provide a strict physical justification for the influence of the background IGWs on the upper atmosphere. Taking into account both fluid compressibility and the gravity in a coupled atmosphere-ocean system, we show that there exist two distinct regimes of IGW penetration into the atmosphere. At higher frequencies, one has evanescent waves in the atmosphere propagating horizontally along the ocean surface. At lower frequencies, IGWs continuously radiate their energy into the upper atmosphere in the form of acoustic gravity waves (AGWs). The transition frequency depends on the ocean depth; it varies slowly near 3 mHz for typical depth values and drops to zero sharply only for extremely large depths. Using semi-empirical model of the IGW power spectrum, we derive an estimate of the flux of the mechanical energy and mechanical momentum from the deep ocean into the atmosphere due to background IGWs and predict specific forcing on the atmosphere in coastal regions. We compare spectra of wave processes in the ionosphere measured using Dynasonde technique over Wallops Island, VA and San Juan, PR and interpret the differences in terms of the oceanic effects. We conclude that AGWs of oceanic origin may have an observable impact on the upper atmosphere and describe techniques for experimental verification of this finding.

Post-seismic relaxation following the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on a compressible self-gravitating Earth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, F.F.; Burgmann, R.; Banerjee, P.

2006-01-01

he Mw ??? 9.0 2004 December 26 Sumatra-Andaman and Mw =8.7 2005 March 28 Nias earthquakes, which collectively ruptured approximately 1800 km of the Andaman and Sunda subduction zones, are expected to be followed by vigorous viscoelastic relaxation involving both the upper and lower mantle. Because of these large spatial dimensions it is desirable to fully account for gravitational coupling effects in the relaxation process. We present a stable method of computing relaxation of a spherically-stratified, compressible and self-gravitating viscoelastic Earth following an impulsive moment release event. The solution is cast in terms of a spherical harmonic expansion of viscoelastic normal modes. For simple layered viscoelastic models, which include a low-viscosity oceanic asthenosphere, we predict substantial post-seismic effects over a region several 100s of km wide surrounding the eastern Indian Ocean. We compare observed GPS time-series from ten regional sites (mostly in Thailand and Indonesia), beginning in 2004 December, with synthetic time-series that include the coseismic and post-seismic effects of the 2004 December 26 and 2005 March 28 earthquakes. A viscosity structure involving a biviscous (Burgers body) rheology in the asthenosphere explains the pattern and amplitude of post-seismic offsets remarkably well. ?? 2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2006 RAS.

The Global and Local Climatic Response to the Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huybers, K. M.; Singh, H.; Steiger, N. J.; Frierson, D. M.; Steig, E. J.; Bitz, C. M.

2014-12-01

Glaciologists have suggested that a relatively small external forcing may compromise the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Further, there is compelling physical evidence that the WAIS has collapsed in the past, at times when the mean global temperature was only a few degrees warmer than it is today. In addition to a rapid increase in global sea level, the collapse of the WAIS could also affect the global circulation of the atmosphere. Ice sheets are some of the largest topographic features on Earth, causing large regional anomalies in albedo and radiative balance. Our work uses idealized aquaplanet models in tandem with a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model (CCSM4) to compare the atmospheric, radiative, and oceanic response to a complete loss of the WAIS. Initial findings indicate that the loss of the WAIS leads to a weakening and equator-ward shift of the zonal winds, a development of strong zonal asymmetries in the meridional wind, and a northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. We aim to characterize how the local and global climate is affected by the presence of the WAIS, and how changes in the distribution of Southern Hemisphere ice may be represented in the proxy record.

GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki

2012-01-01

We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

Experimental design for three interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects: MISMIP v. 3 (MISMIP +), ISOMIP v. 2 (ISOMIP +) and MISOMIP v. 1 (MISOMIP1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Cornford, Stephen L.; Durand, Gaël

Coupled ice sheet-ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computationalmore » experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet-ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.« less

Sensitivity experiments with a one-dimensional coupled plume - iceflow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckmann, Johanna; Perette, Mahé; Alexander, David; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-04-01

Over the last few decades Greenland Ice sheet mass balance has become increasingly negative, caused by enhanced surface melting and speedup of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers at the ice sheet margins. Glaciers speedup has been related, among other factors, to enhanced submarine melting, which in turn is caused by warming of the surrounding ocean and less obviously, by increased subglacial discharge. While ice-ocean processes potentially play an important role in recent and future mass balance changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet, their physical understanding remains poorly understood. In this work we performed numerical experiments with a one-dimensional plume model coupled to a one-dimensional iceflow model. First we investigated the sensitivity of submarine melt rate to changes in ocean properties (ocean temperature and salinity), to the amount of subglacial discharge and to the glacier's tongue geometry itself. A second set of experiments investigates the response of the coupled model, i.e. the dynamical response of the outlet glacier to altered submarine melt, which results in new glacier geometry and updated melt rates.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Asay-Davis, Xylar Storm

The project performed under this award, referred to from here on as CLARION (CoupLed simulations of Antarctic Ice-sheet/Ocean iNteractions), included important advances in two models of ice sheet and ocean interactions. Despite its short duration (one year), the project made significant progress on its three major foci. First, together with collaborator Daniel Martin at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), I developed the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model to the point where it could perform a number of pan-Antarctic simulations under various forcing conditions. The results were presented at a number of major conferences and workshops worldwide, and are currently beingmore » incorporated into two manuscripts in preparation.« less

SURFEX v8.0 interface with OASIS3-MCT to couple atmosphere with hydrology, ocean, waves and sea-ice models, from coastal to global scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voldoire, Aurore; Decharme, Bertrand; Pianezze, Joris; Lebeaupin Brossier, Cindy; Sevault, Florence; Seyfried, Léo; Garnier, Valérie; Bielli, Soline; Valcke, Sophie; Alias, Antoinette; Accensi, Mickael; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Ducrocq, Véronique; Faroux, Stéphanie; Giordani, Hervé; Léger, Fabien; Marsaleix, Patrick; Rainaud, Romain; Redelsperger, Jean-Luc; Richard, Evelyne; Riette, Sébastien

2017-11-01

This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications, from global and regional coupled climate systems to high-resolution numerical weather prediction systems or very fine-scale models dedicated to process studies. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere-surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models. The numerical and physical principles of SURFEX interface between the different component models are described, and the different coupled systems in which the SURFEX OASIS3-MCT-based coupling interface is already implemented are presented.

Inter-annual variability of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation in Med-CORDEX simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vittoria Struglia, Maria; Adani, Mario; Carillo, Adriana; Pisacane, Giovanna; Sannino, Gianmaria; Beuvier, Jonathan; Lovato, Tomas; Sevault, Florence; Vervatis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

Recent atmospheric reanalysis products, such as ERA40 and ERA-interim, and their regional dynamical downscaling prompted the HyMeX/Med-CORDEX community to perform hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea, giving the opportunity to evaluate the response of different ocean models to a realistic inter-annual atmospheric forcing. Ocean numerical modeling studies have been steadily improving over the last decade through hind-cast processing, and are complementary to observations in studying the relative importance of the mechanisms playing a role in ocean variability, either external forcing or internal ocean variability. This work presents a review and an inter-comparison of the most recent hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea Circulation, produced in the framework of the Med-CORDEX initiative, at resolutions spanning from 1/8° to 1/16°. The richness of the simulations available for this study is exploited to address the effects of increasing resolution, both of models and forcing, the initialization procedure, and the prescription of the atmospheric boundary conditions, which are particularly relevant in order to model a realistic THC, in the perspective of fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere models. The mean circulation is well reproduced by all the simulations. However, it can be observed that the horizontal resolution of both atmospheric forcing and ocean model plays a fundamental role in the reproduction of some specific features of both sub-basins and important differences can be observed among low and high resolution atmosphere forcing. We analyze the mean circulation on both the long-term and decadal time scale, and the represented inter-annual variability of intermediate and deep water mass formation processes in both the Eastern and Western sub-basins, finding that models agree with observations in correspondence of specific events, such as the 1992-1993 Eastern Mediterranean Transient, and the 2005-2006 event in the Gulf of Lion. Long-term trends of the hydrological properties have been investigated at sub-basin scale and have been interpreted in terms of response to forcing and boundary conditions, detectable differences resulting mainly due either to the different initialization and spin up procedure or to the different prescription of Atlantic boundary conditions.

Tropical Atlantic Impacts on the Decadal Climate Variability of the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

2015-12-01

Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. In particular, several recent works indicate that the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) may contribute to the climate variability over the equatorial Pacific. Inspired by these studies, our work aims at investigating the impact of the tropical Atlantic on the entire tropical climate system, and uncovering the physical dynamics under these tropical teleconnections. We first performed a 'pacemaker' simulation by restoring the satellite era tropical Atlantic SST changes in a fully coupled model - the CESM1. Results reveal that the Atlantic warming heats the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific, enhances the Walker circulation and drives the subsurface Pacific to a La Niña mode, contributing to 60-70% of the above tropical changes in the past 30 years. The same pan-tropical teleconnections have been validated by the statistics of observations and 106 CMIP5 control simulations. We then used a hierarchy of atmospheric and oceanic models with different complexities, to single out the roles of atmospheric dynamics, atmosphere-ocean fluxes, and oceanic dynamics in these teleconnections. With these simulations we established a two-step mechanism as shown in the schematic figure: 1) Atlantic warming generates an atmospheric deep convection and induces easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific in the form of Kelvin waves, and westerly wind anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution. This circulation changes warms the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific with the wind-evaporation-SST effect, forming a temperature gradient over the Indo-Pacific basins. 2) The temperature gradient further generates a secondary atmospheric deep convection, which reinforces the easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and enhances the Walker circulation, triggering the Pacific to a La Niña mode with Bjerknes ocean dynamical feedback. This mechanism contributes to the understanding of the global decadal climate variability and predictability. In particular, Atlantic contributes to the Eastern Pacific cooling, which is considered as an important source of the recent global warming hiatus.

Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Ocean Model Response to Hurricane Ivan (PREPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-18

analysis of upper-limb meridional overturning circulation interior ocean pathways in the tropical/subtropical Atlantic . In: Interhemispheric Water...diminishing returns are encountered when either resolution is increased. 3 1. Introduction Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models have become...northwest Caribbean Sea 4 and GOM. Evaluation is difficult because ocean general circulation models incorporate a large suite of numerical algorithms

Development and Utilization of Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). Delicacy, Imprecision, and Uncertainty of Oceanic Simulations: An Investigation with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). Mixing in the Ocean Surface Layer Using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS).

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

community use for ROMS is biogeochemisty: chemical cycles, water quality, blooms , micro-nutrients, larval dispersal, biome transitions, and coupling to...J.C. McWilliams, X. Capet, and J. Kurian, 2010: Heat balance and eddies in the Peru- Chile Current System. Climate Dynamics, 37, in press. doi10.1007

The Impacts of Aerosols on Hurricane Katrina under the Effect of Air-Sea Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; Hsieh, J. S.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, R.

2017-12-01

Aerosols can affect the development of tropical cyclones, which often involve intense interactions with the ocean. Therefore, the impacts of aerosols on the tropical cyclones are reckoned closely associated with the effect of ocean feedback, a priori, which has often been omitted by most of the previous modeling studies about the aerosol effects on tropical cyclones. We investigate the synergetic effects of aerosols and ocean feedback on the development of hurricane Katrina using a convection-resolving coupled regional model (WRF-ROMS). In comparison with observations, our coupled simulation under pristine aerosol condition well captures the pressure drop near the center of Katrina with maximum mean sea level pressure in good agreement with the observation albeit the simulated maximal wind speed is relatively weaker than the observation. Preliminary results suggest that the ocean feedback tends to work with (against) aerosols to suppress (enhance) the hurricane's center pressure drop/maximum wind intensity at the developing (decaying) stage, suggesting a positive (negative) feedback to the aerosols' suppression effect on hurricanes. Moreover, the size of the simulated hurricane considerably expands due to the elevated polluted aerosols while the expansion is weakened, along with the increased precipitation, by the effect of air-sea interactions during the developing stage, which demonstrates intricate nonlinear interactions between aerosols, the hurricane and the ocean.

Dynamics of coupled ice-ocean system in the marginal ice zone: Study of the mesoscale processes and of constitutive equations for sea ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, S.

1984-01-01

This study is aimed at the modelling of mesoscale processed such as up/downwelling and ice edge eddies in the marginal ice zones. A 2-dimensional coupled ice-ocean model is used for the study. The ice model is coupled to the reduced gravity ocean model (f-plane) through interfacial stresses. The constitutive equations of the sea ice are formulated on the basis of the Reiner-Rivlin theory. The internal ice stresses are important only at high ice concentrations (90-100%), otherwise the ice motion is essentially free drift, where the air-ice stress is balanced by the ice-water stress. The model was tested by studying the upwelling dynamics. Winds parallel to the ice edge with the ice on the right produce upwilling because the air-ice momentum flux is much greater that air-ocean momentum flux, and thus the Ekman transport is bigger under the ice than in the open water. The upwelling simulation was extended to include temporally varying forcing, which was chosen to vary sinusoidally with a 4 day period. This forcing resembles successive cyclone passings. In the model with a thin oceanic upper layer, ice bands were formed.

Outlet Glacier-Ice Shelf-Ocean Interactions: Is the Tail Wagging the Dog?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parizek, B. R.; Walker, R. T.; Rinehart, S. K.

2009-12-01

While the massive interior regions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets are presently ``resting quietly", the lower elevations of many outlet glaciers are experiencing dramatic adjustments due to changes in ice dynamics and/or surface mass balance. Oceanic and/or atmospheric forcing in these marginal regions often leads to mass deficits for entire outlet basins. Therefore, coupling the wagging tail of ice-ocean interactions with the vast ice-sheet reservoirs is imperative for accurate assessments of future sea-level rise. To study ice-ocean dynamic processes, we couple an ocean-plume model that simulates ice-shelf basal melting rates based on temperature and salinity profiles combined with plume dynamics associated with the geometry of the ice-shelf cavity (following Jenkins, 1991 and Holland and Jenkins, 1999) with a two-dimensional, isothermal model of outlet glacier-ice shelf flow (as used in Alley et al., 2007; Walker et al., 2008; Parizek et al., in review). Depending on the assigned temperature and salinity profiles, the ocean model can simulate both water-mass end-members: either cold High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) or relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW), as well as between-member conditions. Notably, the coupled system exhibits sensitivity to the initial conditions. In particular, melting concentrated near the grounding line has the greatest effect in forcing grounding-line retreat. Retreat is further enhanced by a positive feedback between the ocean and ice, as the focused melt near the grounding line leads to an increase in the local slope of the basal ice, thereby enhancing buoyancy-driven plume flow and subsequent melt rates.

Present-day Circum-Antarctic Simulations using the POPSICLES Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, X.; Martin, D. F.; Price, S. F.; Maltrud, M. E.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010. Simulations are performed at 0.1o (~5 km) ocean resolution and with adaptive ice-sheet model resolution as fine as 500 m. We compare time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported by Rignot et al. (2013) as well as other recent studies. We also present seasonal variability and decadal trends in submarine melting from several Antarctic regions. Finally, we explore the influence on basal melting and system dynamics resulting from two different choices of climate forcing: a "normal-year" climatology and the CORE v. 2 forcing data (Large and Yeager 2008).POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009) to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3D; Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014).A companion presentation, "Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ocean forcing using the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model" in session C024 covers the ice-sheet response to these melt rates in the coupled simulation. The figure shows eddy activity in the vertically integrated (barotropic) velocity nearly six years into a POPSICLES simulation of the Antarctic region.

Mercury-Atlas (MA)-9 - "Faith 7" Spacecraft Splashdown - Pacific Ocean

NASA Image and Video Library

1971-03-26

S71-24944 (16 May 1963) --- The Mercury-Atlas 9 "Faith 7" spacecraft, with astronaut L. Gordon Cooper Jr. aboard, splashes down in the Pacific Ocean to conclude a 22-orbit mission lasting 34 hours and 20.5 minutes. The capsule's parachute is fully deployed in this view. A rescue helicopter hovers overhead. Photo credit: NASA

Use of Ocean Remote Sensing Data to Enhance Predictions with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.

1999-01-01

Surface height, sea surface temperature and surface wind observations from satellites have given a detailed time sequence of the initiation and evolution of the 1997/98 El Nino. The data have beet complementary to the subsurface TAO moored data in their spatial resolution and extent. The impact of satellite observations on seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model will be presented.

Aircraft Measurements for Understanding Air-Sea Coupling and Improving Coupled Model Predictions

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

layer thermodynamic properties across the DYNAMO domain during the suppressed and active phase of MJO; and 3) variability and distribution of upper ocean...structure during suppressed, active and restoring phase of MJO. One of the unique aspects of LASP/ DYNAMO WP-3D project was to supplement the point...observations by probing the atmospheric and oceanic variability across the DYNAMO domain. Adhering to this aspect, vertical cross section of lower

Fully vs. Sequentially Coupled Loads Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Damiani, Rick; Wendt, Fabian; Musial, Walter

The design and analysis methods for offshore wind turbines must consider the aerodynamic and hydrodynamic loads and response of the entire system (turbine, tower, substructure, and foundation) coupled to the turbine control system dynamics. Whereas a fully coupled (turbine and support structure) modeling approach is more rigorous, intellectual property concerns can preclude this approach. In fact, turbine control system algorithms and turbine properties are strictly guarded and often not shared. In many cases, a partially coupled analysis using separate tools and an exchange of reduced sets of data via sequential coupling may be necessary. In the sequentially coupled approach, themore » turbine and substructure designers will independently determine and exchange an abridged model of their respective subsystems to be used in their partners' dynamic simulations. Although the ability to achieve design optimization is sacrificed to some degree with a sequentially coupled analysis method, the central question here is whether this approach can deliver the required safety and how the differences in the results from the fully coupled method could affect the design. This work summarizes the scope and preliminary results of a study conducted for the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement aimed at quantifying differences between these approaches through aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulations of two offshore wind turbines on a monopile and jacket substructure.« less

El Nino-southern oscillation: A coupled response to the greenhouse effect?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, De-Zheng

The purpose of this article to elucidate the link between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and radiative forcing (of which the greenhouse effect is a major part). A unified theory for the tropical Pacific climate is developed by considering the response of the coupled ocean-atmosphere to a changing radiative forcing. The hypothesis is that both the zonal surface sea temperature (SST) gradients and ENSO are a coupled response to the strong radiative heating or the tropical warmth. Owing to ocean-atmosphere interaction, the stronger the radiative heating, the larger the zonal SST gradients. When the SST gradients exceed a critical value,more » however, the ocean-atmosphere interaction in the cold-tongue region is too strong for the coupled system to hold steady. Consequently, the coupled system enters an oscillatory state. These coupled dynamics are examined in a simple mathematical model whose behavior is consistent with the hypothesis. With a linear temperature profile throughout the depth of subsurface ocean, the model predicts that both the magnitude and period of the oscillation increase with increases in radiative forcing or the greenhouse effect. The increase in the magnitude of the oscillation largely comes from an enhancement of the magnitude of the cold anomalies, while the increase in the period mostly comes from a prolonged duration of the warm events. With a profile in which the lapse rate decreases with depth, the sensitivity is more moderate. The simplicity of the model prevents a quantitative simulation of the sensitivity of ENSO to increases in the greenhouse effect, but qualitatively the model results support the empirical interpretation of the prolonged duration of the 1990-1995 ENSO event. 5 refs., 7 figs.« less

Contrasting Indian Ocean SST Variability With and Without ENSO Influence: A Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Jin-Yi; Lau, K. M.

2004-01-01

In this study, we perform experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to examine ENSO's influence on the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability of the tropical Indian Ocean. The control experiment includes both the Indian and Pacific Oceans in the ocean model component of the CGCM (the Indo-Pacific Run). The anomaly experiment excludes ENSOs influence by including only the Indian Ocean while prescribing monthly-varying climatological SSTs for the Pacific Ocean (the Indian-Ocean Run). In the Indo-Pacific Run, an oscillatory mode of the Indian Ocean SST variability is identified by a multi-channel singular spectral analysis (MSSA). The oscillatory mode comprises two patterns that can be identified with the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) and a basin-wide warming/cooling mode respectively. In the model, the IOZM peaks about 3-5 months after ENSO reaches its maximum intensity. The basin mode peaks 8 months after the IOZM. The timing and associated SST patterns suggests that the IOZM is related to ENSO, and the basin- wide warming/cooling develops as a result of the decay of the IOZM spreading SST anomalies from western Indian Ocean to the eastern Indian Ocean. In contrast, in the Indian-Ocean Run, no oscillatory modes can be identified by the MSSA, even though the Indian Ocean SST variability is characterized by east-west SST contrast patterns similar to the IOZM. In both control and anomaly runs, IOZM-like SST variability appears to be associated with forcings from fluctuations of the Indian monsoon. Our modeling results suggest that the oscillatory feature of the IOZM is primarily forced by ENSO.

Fully automatic oil spill detection from COSMO-SkyMed imagery using a neural network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avezzano, Ruggero G.; Del Frate, Fabio; Latini, Daniele

2012-09-01

The increased amount of available Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images acquired over the ocean represents an extraordinary potential for improving oil spill detection activities. On the other side this involves a growing workload on the operators at analysis centers. In addition, even if the operators go through extensive training to learn manual oil spill detection, they can provide different and subjective responses. Hence, the upgrade and improvements of algorithms for automatic detection that can help in screening the images and prioritizing the alarms are of great benefit. In the framework of an ASI Announcement of Opportunity for the exploitation of COSMO-SkyMed data, a research activity (ASI contract L/020/09/0) aiming at studying the possibility to use neural networks architectures to set up fully automatic processing chains using COSMO-SkyMed imagery has been carried out and results are presented in this paper. The automatic identification of an oil spill is seen as a three step process based on segmentation, feature extraction and classification. We observed that a PCNN (Pulse Coupled Neural Network) was capable of providing a satisfactory performance in the different dark spots extraction, close to what it would be produced by manual editing. For the classification task a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Network was employed.

Dissolved oxygen in two Oregon estuaries: The importance of the ocean-estuary connection - May 16, 2011

EPA Science Inventory

We examined the role of the ocean –estuary connection in influencing periodic reductions in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels in Yaquina and Yachats estuaries, Oregon, USA. In the Yaquina Estuary, there is close coupling between the coastal ocean and the estuary. As a result, low DO ...

Numerical Simulation of Electromagnetic Field Variation in the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Associated with Seismogenic Process in a Curvature Coordinate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, Y.; Huang, Q.

2013-12-01

The lithosphere-atmosphere- ionosphere (LAI) system formed an electromagnetic (EM) cavity that hosts the EM field excited by electric currents generated by lightning and other natural sources. There have also been numerous reports on variations of the EM field existing in LAI system prior to some significance earthquakes. We simulated the EM field in the lithosphere-ionosphere waveguide with a whole-earth model using a curvature coordinate by the hybrid pseudo-spectral and finite difference time domain method. Considering the seismogensis as a fully coupled seismoelectric process, we simulate the seismic wave and the EM wave in this 2D model. In the model we have observed the excitation of the Schumann Resonance (SR) as the background EM field generated by randomly placed electric-current impulses within the lowest 10 kilometers of the atmosphere. The diurnal variation and the latitude-dependence in ion concentration in the ionosphere are included in the model. After the SR reaching a steady state, an electric impulse is introduced in the shallow lithosphere to mimic the seismogenic process (pre-, co- and post-seismic) to assess the possible precursory effects on SR strength and frequency. The modeling results can explain the observed fact of why SR has a much more sensitive response to continental earthquakes, and much less response to oceanic events. The fundamental reason is simply due to the shielding effect of the conductive ocean that prevents effective radiation of the seismoelectric signals from oceanic earthquake events into the LAI waveguide.

Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehlen, M.; Séférian, R.; Jones, D. O. B.; Roy, T.; Roth, R.; Barry, J.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J. P.; Heinze, C.; Joos, F.; Orr, J. C.; Resplandy, L.; Segschneider, J.; Tjiputra, J.

2014-12-01

This study aims to evaluate the potential for impacts of ocean acidification on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Deep-sea biota is likely highly vulnerable to changes in seawater chemistry and sensitive to moderate excursions in pH. Here we show, from seven fully coupled Earth system models, that for three out of four RCPs over 17% of the seafloor area below 500 m depth in the North Atlantic sector will experience pH reductions exceeding -0.2 units by 2100. Increased stratification in response to climate change partially alleviates the impact of ocean acidification on deep benthic environments. We report on major pH reductions over the deep North Atlantic seafloor (depth >500 m) and at important deep-sea features, such as seamounts and canyons. By 2100, and under the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5, pH reductions exceeding -0.2 (-0.3) units are projected in close to 23% (~15%) of North Atlantic deep-sea canyons and ~8% (3%) of seamounts - including seamounts proposed as sites of marine protected areas. The spatial pattern of impacts reflects the depth of the pH perturbation and does not scale linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Impacts may cause negative changes of the same magnitude or exceeding the current target of 10% of preservation of marine biomes set by the convention on biological diversity, implying that ocean acidification may offset benefits from conservation/management strategies relying on the regulation of resource exploitation.

What have we learned from the German consortium project STORM aiming at high-resolution climate simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Storch, Jin-Song

2014-05-01

The German consortium STORM was built to explore high-resolution climate simulations using the high-performance computer stored at the German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ). One of the primary goals is to quantify the effect of unresolved (and parametrized) processes on climate sensitivity. We use ECHAM6/MPIOM, the coupled atmosphere-ocean model developed at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology. The resolution is T255L95 for the atmosphere and 1/10 degree and 80 vertical levels for the ocean. We discuss results of stand-alone runs, i.e. the ocean-only simulation driven by the NCEP/NCAR renalaysis and the atmosphere-only AMIP-type of simulation. Increasing resolution leads to a redistribution of biases, even though some improvements, both in the atmosphere and in the ocean, can clearly be attributed to the increase in resolution. We represent also new insights on ocean meso-scale eddies, in particular their effects on the ocean's energetics. Finally, we discuss the status and problems of the coupled high-resolution runs.

When a Slowly Rotating Aquaplanet is Coupled to a Dynamical Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salameh, J.; Marotzke, J.

2017-12-01

Planets orbiting in close distance from their stars have a high probability to be detected, and are expected to be slowly rotating due to strong tidal forces. By increasing the rotation period from 1 Earth-day to 365 Earth-days, we previously found that the global-mean surface temperature of an aquaplanet with a static mixed-layer ocean decreases by up to 27 K. The cooling is attributed to an increase of the planetary albedo with the rotation period, which is associated with the different distributions of the sea ice and the deep convective clouds. However, we had there assumed a fixed mixed-layer depth and a zero oceanic heat transport in the aquaplanet configuration. The limitations of these assumptions in such exotic climates are still unclear. We therefore perform coupled atmosphere-ocean aquaplanet simulations with the general circulation model ICON for various rotation periods ranging from 1 Earth-day to 365 Earth-days. We investigate how the underlying oceanic circulation modifies the mean climate of slowly rotating aquaplanets, and whether the day-to-night oceanic heat transport reduces the surface-temperature gradients and the sea-ice extent.

Mesoscale Air-Sea Interactions along the Gulf Stream: An Eddy-Resolving and Convection-Permitting Coupled Regional Climate Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, J. S.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.

2017-12-01

Frontal and mesoscale air-sea interactions along the Gulf Stream (GS) during boreal winter are investigated using an eddy-resolving and convection-permitting coupled regional climate model with atmospheric grid resolutions varying from meso-β (27-km) to -r (9-km and 3-km nest) scales in WRF and a 9-km ocean model (ROMS) that explicitly resolves the ocean mesoscale eddies across the North Atlantic basin. The mesoscale wavenumber energy spectra for the simulated surface wind stress and SST demonstrate good agreement with the observed spectra calculated from the observational QuikSCAT and AMSR-E datasets, suggesting that the model well captures the energy cascade of the mesoscale eddies in both the atmosphere and the ocean. Intercomparison among different resolution simulations indicates that after three months of integration the simulated GS path tends to overshoot beyond the separation point in the 27-km WRF coupled experiments than the observed climatological path of the GS, whereas the 3-km nested and 9-km WRF coupled simulations realistically simulate GS separation. The GS overshoot in 27-km WRF coupled simulations is accompanied with a significant SST warming bias to the north of the GS extension. Such biases are associated with the deficiency of wind stress-SST coupling strengths simulated by the coupled model with a coarser resolution in WRF. It is found that the model at 27-km grid spacing can approximately simulate 72% (62%) of the observed mean coupling strength between surface wind stress curl (divergence) and crosswind (downwind) SST gradient while by increasing the WRF resolutions to 9 km or 3 km the coupled model can much better capture the observed coupling strengths.

The Double ITCZ Syndrome in GCMs: A Coupled Problem among Convection, Atmospheric and Ocean Circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, G. J.; Song, X.

2017-12-01

The double ITCZ bias has been a long-standing problem in coupled atmosphere-ocean models. A previous study indicates that uncertainty in the projection of global warming due to doubling of CO2 is closely related to the double ITCZ biases in global climate models. Thus, reducing the double ITCZ biases is not only important to getting the current climate features right, but also important to narrowing the uncertainty in future climate projection. In this work, we will first review the possible factors contributing to the ITCZ problem. Then, we will focus on atmospheric convection, presenting recent progress in alleviating the double ITCZ problem and its sensitivity to details of convective parameterization, including trigger conditions for convection onset, convective memory, entrainment rate, updraft model and closure in the NCAR CESM1. These changes together can result in dramatic improvements in the simulation of ITCZ. Results based on both atmospheric only and coupled simulations with incremental changes of convection scheme will be shown to demonstrate the roles of convection parameterization and coupled interaction between convection, atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation in the simulation of ITCZ.

A new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C. R.; Dowsett, H. J.; Scher, H. D.; Robinson, M. M.

2011-12-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.264 - 3.025 Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history with sustained global temperatures in the range of warming predicted for the 21st century, providing an appealing analog with which to examine the Earth system changes we might encounter in the coming century. Ongoing sea surface and deep ocean temperature reconstructions and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model simulations by the USGS PRISM (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Group identify a dramatic North Atlantic warm anomaly coupled with increased evaporation in the mid-Pliocene, possibly driving enhanced meridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Deep Water production. However deep ocean temperature is not a conclusive proxy for water mass, and most coupled model simulations predict transient decreases in North Atlantic Deep Water production in 21st century, presenting a contrasting picture of future warmer worlds. Here, we present early results from a new multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic deep ocean circulation during the warm mid-Pliocene, using δ13C of benthic foraminifera as a proxy for water mass age and the neodymium isotopic imprint on fossil fish teeth as a proxy for water mass source region along a three-site depth transect from the Walvis Ridge (subtropical South Atlantic). The deep ocean circulation reconstructions resulting from this project will add a new dimension to the PRISM effort and will be useful for both initialization and evaluation of future model simulations.

The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemer, Mark; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Erikson, Li; Lionello, Piero; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan

2016-04-01

Future 21st Century changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for marine and coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing and providing future projections of climatological parameters such as temperature and precipitation, but generally these provide no information on ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap a growing number of studies are using GCM outputs and independently producing global and regional scale wind-wave climate projections. Furthermore, additional studies are actively coupling wind-wave dependent atmosphere-ocean exchanges into GCMs, to improve physical representation and quantify the impact of waves in the coupled climate system, and can also deliver wave characteristics as another variable in the climate system. To consolidate these efforts, understand the sources of variance between projections generated by different methodologies and International groups, and ultimately provide a robust picture of the role of wind-waves in the climate system and their projected changes, we present outcomes of the JCOMM supported Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP). The objective of COWCLIP is twofold: to make community based ensembles of wave climate projections openly accessible, to provide the necessary information to support diligent marine and coastal impacts of climate change studies; and to understand the effects and feedback influences of wind-waves in the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system. We will present the current status of COWCLIP, providing an overview of the objectives, analysis and results of the initial phase - now complete - and the progress of ongoing phases of the project.

How ocean lateral mixing changes Southern Ocean variability in coupled climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradal, M. A. S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Thomas, J. L.

2016-02-01

The lateral mixing of tracers represents a major uncertainty in the formulation of coupled climate models. The mixing of tracers along density surfaces in the interior and horizontally within the mixed layer is often parameterized using a mixing coefficient ARedi. The models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 exhibit more than an order of magnitude range in the values of this coefficient used within the Southern Ocean. The impacts of such uncertainty on Southern Ocean variability have remained unclear, even as recent work has shown that this variability differs between different models. In this poster, we change the lateral mixing coefficient within GFDL ESM2Mc, a coarse-resolution Earth System model that nonetheless has a reasonable circulation within the Southern Ocean. As the coefficient varies from 400 to 2400 m2/s the amplitude of the variability varies significantly. The low-mixing case shows strong decadal variability with an annual mean RMS temperature variability exceeding 1C in the Circumpolar Current. The highest-mixing case shows a very similar spatial pattern of variability, but with amplitudes only about 60% as large. The suppression of mixing is larger in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean relatively to the Pacific sector. We examine the salinity budgets of convective regions, paying particular attention to the extent to which high mixing prevents the buildup of low-saline waters that are capable of shutting off deep convection entirely.

Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation to be amplified. The relative importance of the ocean warming versus the SLR was evaluated. Keywords: Hurricane Matthew, Global Warming, Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model, Air-Sea interactions, Storm Surge, Inundation

The Madden-Julian oscillation in ECHAM4 coupled and uncoupled general circulation models

DOE PAGES

Sperber, Kenneth R.; Gualdi, Silvio; Legutke, Stephanie; ...

2005-06-29

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) dominates tropical variability on timescales of 30–70 days. During the boreal winter/spring, it is manifested as an eastward propagating disturbance, with a strong convective signature over the eastern hemisphere. The space–time structure of the MJO is analyzed using simulations with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model run with observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and coupled to three different ocean models. The coherence of the eastward propagation of MJO convection is sensitive to the ocean model to which ECHAM4 is coupled. For ECHAM4/OPYC and ECHO-G, models for which ~100 years of daily data is available, Montemore » Carlo sampling indicates that their metrics of eastward propagation are different at the 1% significance level. The flux-adjusted coupled simulations, ECHAM4/OPYC and ECHO-G, maintain a more realistic mean-state, and have a more realistic MJO simulation than the nonadjusted scale interaction experiment (SINTEX) coupled runs. The SINTEX model exhibits a cold bias in Indian Ocean and tropical West Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature of ~0.5°C. This cold bias affects the distribution of time-mean convection over the tropical eastern hemisphere. Furthermore, the eastward propagation of MJO convection in this model is not as coherent as in the two models that used flux adjustment or when compared to an integration of ECHAM4 with prescribed observed SST. This result suggests that simulating a realistic basic state is at least as important as air–sea interaction for organizing the MJO. While all of the coupled models simulate the warm (cold) SST anomalies that precede (succeed) the MJO convection, the interaction of the components of the net surface heat flux that lead to these anomalies are different over the Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4/OPYC model in which the atmospheric model is run at a horizontal resolution of T42, has eastward propagating zonal wind anomalies and latent heat flux anomalies. However, the integrations with ECHO-G and SINTEX, which used T30 atmospheres, produce westward propagation of the latent heat flux anomalies, contrary to reanalysis. Furthermore, it is suggested that the differing ability of the models to represent the near-surface westerlies over the Indian Ocean is related to the different horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric model employed.« less

NCI HPC Scaling and Optimisation in Climate, Weather, Earth system science and the Geosciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, B. J. K.; Bermous, I.; Freeman, J.; Roberts, D. S.; Ward, M. L.; Yang, R.

2016-12-01

The Australian National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) has a national focus in the Earth system sciences including climate, weather, ocean, water management, environment and geophysics. NCI leads a Program across its partners from the Australian science agencies and research communities to identify priority computational models to scale-up. Typically, these cases place a large overall demand on the available computer time, need to scale to higher resolutions, use excessive scarce resources such as large memory or bandwidth that limits, or in some cases, need to meet requirements for transition to a separate operational forecasting system, with set time-windows. The model codes include the UK Met Office Unified Model atmospheric model (UM), GFDL's Modular Ocean Model (MOM), both the UK Met Office's GC3 and Australian ACCESS coupled-climate systems (including sea ice), 4D-Var data assimilation and satellite processing, the Regional Ocean Model (ROMS), and WaveWatch3 as well as geophysics codes including hazards, magentuellerics, seismic inversions, and geodesy. Many of these codes use significant compute resources both for research applications as well as within the operational systems. Some of these models are particularly complex, and their behaviour had not been critically analysed for effective use of the NCI supercomputer or how they could be improved. As part of the Program, we have established a common profiling methodology that uses a suite of open source tools for performing scaling analyses. The most challenging cases are profiling multi-model coupled systems where the component models have their own complex algorithms and performance issues. We have also found issues within the current suite of profiling tools, and no single tool fully exposes the nature of the code performance. As a result of this work, international collaborations are now in place to ensure that improvements are incorporated within the community models, and our effort can be targeted in a coordinated way. The coordinations have involved user stakeholders, the model developer community, and dependent software libraries. For example, we have spent significant time characterising I/O scalability, and improving the use of libraries such as NetCDF and HDF5.

Development of Operational Wave-Tide-Storm surges Coupling Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, S. H.; Park, S. W.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, K. L.

2009-04-01

The Korean Peninsula is surrounded by the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and East Sea. This complex oceanographic system includes large tides in the Yellow Sea and seasonally varying monsoon and typhoon events. For Korea's coastal regions, floods caused by wave and storm surges are among the most serious threats. To predict more accurate wave and storm surges, the development of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system is essential. For the time being, wave and storm surges predictions are still made separately in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and most operational institute. However, many researchers have emphasized the effects of tides and storm surges on wind waves and recommended further investigations into the effects of wave-tide-storm surges interactions and coupling module. In Korea, especially, tidal height and current give a great effect on the wave prediction in the Yellow sea where is very high tide and related research is not enough. At present, KMA has operated the wave (RWAM : Regional Wave Model) and storm surges/tide prediction system (STORM : Storm Surges/Tide Operational Model) for ocean forecasting. The RWAM is WAVEWATCH III which is a third generation wave model developed by Tolman (1989). The STORM is based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model, Blumberg and Mellor, 1987). The RWAM and STORM cover the northwestern Pacific Ocean from 115°E to 150°E and from 20°N to 52°N. The horizontal grid intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. These two operational models are coupled to simulate wave heights for typhoon case. The sea level and current simulated by storm surge model are used for the input of wave model with 3 hour interval. The coupling simulation between wave and storm surge model carried out for Typhoon Nabi (0514), Shanshan(0613) and Nari (0711) which were effected on Korea directly. We simulated significant wave height simulated by wave model and coupling model and compared difference between uncoupling and coupling cases for each typhoon. When the typhoon Nabi hit at southern coast of Kyushu, predicted significant wave height reached over 10 m. The difference of significant wave height between wave and wave-tide-storm surges model represents large variation at the southwestern coast of Korea with about 0.5 m. Other typhoon cases also show similar results with typhoon Nabi case. For typhoon Shanshan case the difference of significant wave height reached up to 0.3 m. When the typhoon Nari was affected in the southern coast of Korea, predicted significant wave height was about 5m. The typhoon Nari case also shows the difference of significant wave height similar with other typhoon cases. Using the observation from ocean buoy operated by KMA, we compared wave information simulated by wave and wave-storm surges coupling model. The significant wave height simulated by wave-tide-storm surges model shows the tidal modulation features in the western and southern coast of Korea. And the difference of significant wave height between two models reached up to 0.5 m. The coupling effect also can be identified in the wave direction, wave period and wave length. In addition, wave spectrum is also changeable due to coupling effect of wave-tide-storm surges model. The development, testing and application of a coupling module in which wave-tide-storm surges are incorporated within the frame of KMA Ocean prediction system, has been considered as a step forward in respect of ocean forecasting. In addition, advanced wave prediction model will be applicable to the effect of ocean in the weather forecasting system. The main purpose of this study is to show how the coupling module developed and to report on a series of experiments dealing with the sensitivities and real case prediction of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system.

Real-Time Ocean Prediction System for the East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warrior, H. V.

2016-02-01

The primary objective of the research work reported in this abstract was to develop a Realtime Environmental model for Ocean Dispersion and Impact (as part of an already in-place Decision Support System) for the purpose of radiological safety for the area along Kalpakkam (East Indian) coast. This system involves combining real-time ocean observations with numerical models of ocean processes to provide hindcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of currents, tides and waves. In this work we present the development of an Automated Coupled Atmospheric - Ocean Model (we call it IIT-CAOM) used to forecast the sea surface currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity etc of the Bay of Bengal region under the influence of transient and unsteady atmospheric conditions. This method uses a coupling of Atmosphere and Ocean model. The models used here are the WRF for atmospheric simulations and POM for the ocean counterpart. It has a 3 km X 3 km resolution. This Coupled Model uses GFS (Global Forecast System) Data or FNL (Final Analyses) Data as initial conditions for jump-starting the atmospheric model. The Atmospheric model is run first thus extracting air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. The heat flux subroutine computes the net heat flux, using above mentioned parameters data. The net heat flux feeds to the ocean model by simply adding net heat flux subroutine to the ocean model code without changing the model original structure. The online forecast of the IIT-CAOM is currently available in the web. The whole system has been automized and runs without any more manual support. The IIT-CAOM simulations have been carried out for Kalpakkam region, which is located on the East coast of India, about 70 km south of Chennai in Tamilnadu State and a three day forecast of sea surface currents, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity, etc have been obtained.

Effects of Drake Passage on the Ocean's Thermal and Mechanical Energy Budget in a Coupled AOGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von der Heydt, A. S.; Viebahn, J. P.

2016-12-01

During the Cenozoic Earth's climate has undergone a major long-term transition from `greenhouse' to `icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The gradual cooling may be seen as response to the overall slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2-concentration due to weathering processes in the Earth System, however, continental geometry has changed considerably over this period and the long-term gradual trend was interrupted, by several rapid transitions and periods where temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations seem to be decoupled. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary ( 34 Ma, E/O) and mid-Miocene climatic transition ( 13 Ma, MCT) reflect major phases of Antarctic ice sheet build-up and global climate cooling, while Northern Hemisphere ice sheets developed much later ( 2.7Ma). Thresholds in atmospheric CO2-concentration together with feedback mechanisms related to land ice formation are among the favoured mechanisms of these climatic transitions, while the long-proposed ocean circulation changes caused by opening of tectonic gateways seem to play a less direct role. The opening of the Southern Ocean gateways, however, has eventually led to the development of today's strongest ocean current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, playing a major role in the transport properties of the global ocean circulation. The overall state of the global ocean circulation, therefore, must precondition the climate system to dramatic events such as major ice sheet formation. Closing Drake Passage in ocean-only and coupled climate models under otherwise present-day boundary conditions has become a classic experiment, indicating that there exists a considerable uncertainty in the climate response of those models to a closed Drake Passage. Here we quantify the climate response to a closed Drake Passage in a state-of-the-art coupled climate model (CESM). We show that the ocean gateway mechanism is robust in the sense that the equatorward expansion of the Southern Ocean sub-polar gyres inevitably leads to widespread warming around Antarctica. Moreover, we provide a framework to characterise the ocean temperature response to a closed Drake Passage in terms of both the mechanical and thermal energy budget of the ocean.

A High-Resolution Model of the Beaufort Sea Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hedstrom, K.; Danielson, S. L.; Curchitser, E. N.; Lemieux, J. F.; Kasper, J.

2016-12-01

Configuration of and results from a coupled sea-ice ocean model of the Beaufort Sea shelf at 500 m resolution will be shown. Challenging features of the domain include large fresh water flux from the MacKenzie River, seasonal land-fast ice, and ice-covered open boundary conditions. A pan-Arctic domain provides boundary fields to an intermediate resolution (4 km) domain which in turn provides boundary fields to the Beaufort Shelf domain. These are all coupled ocean and sea-ice models (Regional Ocean Modeling System - myroms.org) and all are forced with river inputs from the ARDAT climatology (Whitefield et al., 2015), which includes heat content as well as flow rate. Coastal discharges are prescribed as lateral inflows distributed over the depth of the ocean-land interface. New in the Beaufort domain is the use of a landfast ice parameterization (Lemieux, 2015), which adds a large bottom stress to the ice when the estimated keel depth approaches that of the ocean.

Satellite Observations of Imprint of Oceanic Current on Wind Stress by Air-Sea Coupling.

PubMed

Renault, Lionel; McWilliams, James C; Masson, Sebastien

2017-12-18

Mesoscale eddies are present everywhere in the ocean and partly determine the mean state of the circulation and ecosystem. The current feedback on the surface wind stress modulates the air-sea transfer of momentum by providing a sink of mesoscale eddy energy as an atmospheric source. Using nine years of satellite measurements of surface stress and geostrophic currents over the global ocean, we confirm that the current-induced surface stress curl is linearly related to the current vorticity. The resulting coupling coefficient between current and surface stress (s τ [N s m -3 ]) is heterogeneous and can be roughly expressed as a linear function of the mean surface wind. s τ expresses the sink of eddy energy induced by the current feedback. This has important implications for air-sea interaction and implies that oceanic mean and mesoscale circulations and their effects on surface-layer ventilation and carbon uptake are better represented in oceanic models that include this feedback.

Hurricane-induced ocean waves and stokes drift and their impacts on surface transport and dispersion in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curcic, Milan; Chen, Shuyi S.; Özgökmen, Tamay M.

2016-03-01

Hurricane Isaac induced large surface waves and a significant change in upper ocean circulation in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall at the Louisiana coast on 29 August 2012. Isaac was observed by 194 surface drifters during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment (GLAD). A coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model was used to forecast hurricane impacts during GLAD. The coupled model and drifter observations provide an unprecedented opportunity to study the impacts of hurricane-induced Stokes drift on ocean surface currents. The Stokes drift induced a cyclonic (anticyclonic) rotational flow on the left (right) side of the hurricane and accounted for up to 20% of the average Lagrangian velocity. In a significant deviation from drifter measurements prior to Isaac, the scale-dependent relative diffusivity is estimated to be 6 times larger during the hurricane, which represents a deviation from Okubo's (1971) canonical results for lateral dispersion in nonhurricane conditions at the ocean surface.

Acidification at the Surface in the East Sea: A Coupled Climate-carbon Cycle Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Young-Gyu; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Byun, Young-Hwa; Seo, Seongbong

2018-05-01

This modeling study investigates the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on acidification in the East Sea. A historical simulation for the past three decades (1980 to 2010) was performed using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (version 2), a coupled climate model with atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean cycles. As the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased, acidification progressed in the surface waters of the marginal sea. The acidification was similar in magnitude to observations and models of acidification in the global ocean. However, in the global ocean, the acidification appears to be due to increased in-situ oceanic CO2 uptake, whereas local processes had stronger effects in the East Sea. pH was lowered by surface warming and by the influx of water with higher dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the northwestern Pacific. Due to the enhanced advection of DIC, the partial pressure of CO2 increased faster than in the overlying air; consequently, the in-situ oceanic uptake of CO2 decreased.

Decadal Prediction Efforts in GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.; Suarez, Max; Schubert, Siegfried

2010-01-01

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) plans to use our GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to explore issues associated with predictability on decadal time scales and to contribute to the decadal prediction project that is part ofCMIP5. The GEOS-5 AOGCM is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM with the Catchment Land Surface Model, coupled to GFDL's MOM, version 4. We have assimilation systems for both the atmosphere and ocean. For our climate prediction efforts, the atmosphere will be initialized from the GEOS-5 Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), available from 1979 to present at 112 resolution, and from 1948 to present at 2 resolution. The ocean assimilation is conducted within the coupled model framework, using the MERRA as a constraint for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The decadal prediction experiments will be conducted with a 1 atmosphere and a 112 ocean. Some initial results will be presented, focusing on initialization aspects of the GEOS-5 system.

Sensitivity studies with a coupled ice-ocean model of the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roed, L. P.

1983-01-01

An analytical coupled ice-ocean model is considered which is forced by a specified wind stress acting on the open ocean as well as the ice. The analysis supports the conjecture that the upwelling dynamics at ice edges can be understood by means of a simple analytical model. In similarity with coastal problems it is shown that the ice edge upwelling is determined by the net mass flux at the boundaries of the considered region. The model is used to study the sensitivity of the upwelling dynamics in the marginal ice zone to variation in the controlling parameters. These parameters consist of combinations of the drag coefficients used in the parameterization of the stresses on the three interfaces atmosphere-ice, atmosphere-ocean, and ice-ocean. The response is shown to be sensitive to variations in these parameters in that one set of parameters may give upwelling while a slightly different set of parameters may give downwelling.

Wave-Ice interaction in the Marginal Ice Zone: Toward a Wave-Ocean-Ice Coupled Modeling System

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

MIZ using WW3 (3 frequency bins, ice retreat in August and ice advance in October); Blue (solid): Based on observations near Antarctica by Meylan...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Wave- Ice interaction in the Marginal Ice Zone: Toward a...Wave-Ocean- Ice Coupled Modeling System W. E. Rogers Naval Research Laboratory, Code 7322 Stennis Space Center, MS 39529 phone: (228) 688-4727

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

[The polarization characteristics distribution and correction method of the polarization coupling error in ocean remote sensing system].

PubMed

Gao, Jun; Wang, Shu-Peng; Gu, Xing-Fa; Yu, Tao; Fang, Li

2012-06-01

With the development of the quantitative researches using ocean color remote sensing data sets, study on reducing the uncertainty of the response of the ocean color remote sensors to the polarization characteristics of the target has been attracting more and more attention recently. Taking MODIS as an example, the polarization distribution in the whole field of view was analyzed. For the atmosphere path radiance and the apparent radiance considering the coupling between ocean surface and atmosphere, the polarization distribution has a strong relation with the imaging geometry. Compared to the contribution of the polarization from the rough sea surface, the contribution from the atmosphere is dominated. Based on the polarization characteristics in the field of view, the influence of the polarization coupling error on the quality of the satellite data was studied with the assumption of different polarization sensitivities. It was found that errors due to polarization sensitivity in the field of view are lower than water leaving radiance only when the polarization sensitivity is less than 2%. And in this case it can meet the need of the retrieval of water leaving radiative products. The method of the compensation for the polarization coupling error due to the atmosphere is proposed, which proved to be effective to improve the utilization of satellite data and the accuracy of measured radiance by remote sensor.

Potential impact of climate change on coffee rust over Mexico and Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calderon-Ezquerro, Maria del Carmen; Martinez-Lopez, Benjamin; Cabos Narvaez, William David; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

In this work, some meteorological variables from a regional climate model are used to characterize the dispersion of coffee rust (a fungal disease) from Central America to Mexico, during the 20 Century. The climate model consists of the regional atmosphere model REMO coupled to the MPIOM global ocean model with increased resolution in the Atlantic Ocean. Lateral atmospheric and upper oceanic boundary conditions outside the coupled domain were prescribed using both ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. In addition to the historical simulation, a projection of the evolution of the coffee rust for the 21 Century was obtained from a REMO run using MPIESM data for the lateral forcing.

Impacts of dynamical ocean coupling in MJO experiments using NICAM/NICOCO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyakawa, T.

2016-12-01

The cloud-system resolving atmosphereic model NICAM has been successfull in producing Madden-Julian Oscillations(MJOs), having it's prediction skill estimated to be about 4 weeks in a series of hindcast experiments for winter MJO events during 2003-2012 (Miyakawa et al. 2014). A simple mixed-layer ocean model has been applied with nudging towards a prescribed "persistent anomaly SST", which maintains the initial anomaly with a time-varying climatological seasonal cycle. This setup enables the model to interact with an ocean with reasonably realistic SST, and also run in a "forecast mode", without using any observational information after the initial date. A limitation is that under this setup, the model skill drops if the oceanic anomaly rapidly changes after the initial date in the real world. Here we run a recently developed, full 3D-ocean coupled version NICAM-COCO (NICOCO) and explore its impact on MJO simulations. Dynamical ocean models can produce oceanic waves/currents, but will also have a bias and drift away from reality. In a sub-seasonal simulation (an initial problem), it is essential to compare the merit of having better represented oceanic signals and the demerit of bias/drift. A test case simulation series featuring an MJO that triggered the abrupt termination of a major El Nino in 1998 shows that the abrupt termination occurs in all 9 simulation members, highlighting the merit of ocean coupling. However, this is a case where oceanic signals are at its extremes. We carried out an estimation of MJO prediction skill for a preliminary 1-degree mesh ocean version of NICOCO in a similar manner to Miyakawa et al. (2014). The MJO skill was degraded for simulations that was initialized at RMM phases 1 and 2 (corresponding to the Indian Ocean), while those initialized at phase 8 (Africa) was not strongly affected. The tendency of the model ocean to overestimate the Maritime Continent warm pool SST possibly delays the eastward propagation of MJO convective envelope, accounting for the degrade of prediction skills (phases 1 and 2). Reference:Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer. Miyakawa, T., M. Satoh, H. Miura, H. Tomita, H. Yashiro, A. T. Noda, Y. Yamada, C. Kodama, M. Kimoto & K. Yoneyama. Nature Comm. 5, 3769, doi:10.1038/ncomms4769.

78 FR 73110 - Fisheries of the Exclusive Economic Zone Off Alaska; Pacific Ocean Perch in the Bering Sea...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-05

... in the Bering Sea Subarea of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands Management Area AGENCY: National... in the Bering Sea subarea of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands management area. This action is necessary to fully use the 2013 total allowable catch of Pacific ocean perch specified for the Bering Sea...

75 FR 68726 - Fisheries of the Exclusive Economic Zone Off Alaska; Pacific Ocean Perch in the Bering Sea...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-09

... in the Bering Sea Subarea of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands Management Area AGENCY: National... in the Bering Sea subarea of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands management area. This action is necessary to fully use the 2010 total allowable catch of Pacific ocean perch specified for the Bering Sea...

77 FR 65838 - Fisheries of the Exclusive Economic Zone Off Alaska; Pacific Ocean Perch in the Bering Sea...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-31

... in the Bering Sea Subarea of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands Management Area AGENCY: National... in the Bering Sea subarea of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands management area. This action is necessary to fully use the 2012 total allowable catch of Pacific ocean perch specified for the Bering Sea...

Apollo 16 spacecraft touches down in the central Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The Apollo 16 spacecraft touches down in the central Pacific Ocean at the end of its mission. Splashdown occured at 1:45:06 p.m., Thursday, April 27, 1972, at coordinates of 00:45.2 degrees south latitude and 156:11.4 degrees west longitude, a point approximately 215 miles southeast of Christmas Island. All its parachutes are fully deployed.

Directional and Spectral Irradiance in Ocean Models: Effects on Simulated Global Phytoplankton, Nutrients, and Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

2016-01-01

The importance of including directional and spectral light in simulations of ocean radiative transfer was investigated using a coupled biogeochemical-circulation-radiative model of the global oceans. The effort focused on phytoplankton abundances, nutrient concentrations and vertically-integrated net primary production. The importance was approached by sequentially removing directional (i.e., direct vs. diffuse) and spectral irradiance and comparing results of the above variables to a fully directionally and spectrally-resolved model. In each case the total irradiance was kept constant; it was only the pathways and spectral nature that were changed. Assuming all irradiance was diffuse had negligible effect on global ocean primary production. Global nitrate and total chlorophyll concentrations declined by about 20% each. The largest changes occurred in the tropics and sub-tropics rather than the high latitudes, where most of the irradiance is already diffuse. Disregarding spectral irradiance had effects that depended upon the choice of attenuation wavelength. The wavelength closest to the spectrally-resolved model, 500 nm, produced lower nitrate (19%) and chlorophyll (8%) and higher primary production (2%) than the spectral model. Phytoplankton relative abundances were very sensitive to the choice of non-spectral wavelength transmittance. The combined effects of neglecting both directional and spectral irradiance exacerbated the differences, despite using attenuation at 500 nm. Global nitrate decreased 33% and chlorophyll decreased 24%. Changes in phytoplankton community structure were considerable, representing a change from chlorophytes to cyanobacteria and coccolithophores. This suggested a shift in community function, from light-limitation to nutrient limitation: lower demands for nutrients from cyanobacteria and coccolithophores favored them over the more nutrient-demanding chlorophytes. Although diatoms have the highest nutrient demands in the model, their relative abundances were generally unaffected because they only prosper in nutrient-rich regions, such as the high latitudes and upwelling regions, which showed the fewest effects from the changes in radiative simulations. The results showed that including directional and spectral irradiance when simulating the ocean light field can be important for ocean biology, but the magnitude varies with variables and regions. The quantitative results are intended to assist ocean modelers when considering improved irradiance representations relative to other processes or variables associated with the issues of interest.

Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, N.; Brauch, J.; Dobler, A.; Béranger, K.; Ahrens, B.

2014-03-01

So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid-spacings of 0.44°, 0.22°, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid-spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high-resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, N.; Brauch, J.; Dobler, A.; Béranger, K.; Ahrens, B.

2014-08-01

So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid spacings of 0.44, 0.22, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

Uncertainties and coupled error covariances in the CERA-20C, ECMWF's first coupled reanalysis ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xiangbo; Haines, Keith

2017-04-01

ECMWF has produced its first ensemble ocean-atmosphere coupled reanalysis, the 20th century Coupled ECMWF ReAnalysis (CERA-20C), with 10 ensemble members at 3-hour resolution. Here the analysis uncertainties (ensemble spread) of lower atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST), and their correlations, are quantified on diurnal, seasonal and longer timescales. The 2-m air temperature (T2m) spread is always larger than the SST spread at high-frequencies, but smaller on monthly timescales, except in deep convection areas, indicating increasing SST control at longer timescales. Spatially the T2m-SST ensemble correlations are the strongest where ocean mixed layers are shallow and can respond to atmospheric variability. Where atmospheric convection is strong with a deep precipitating boundary layer, T2m-SST correlations are greatly reduced. As the 20th-century progresses more observations become available, and ensemble spreads decline at all variability timescales. The T2m-SST correlations increase through the 20th-century, except in the tropics. As winds become better constrained over the oceans with less spread, T2m-SST become more correlated. In the tropics, strong ENSO-related inter-annual variability is found in the correlations, as atmospheric convection centres move. These ensemble spreads have been used to provide background errors for the assimilation throughout the reanalysis, have implications for the weights given to observations, and are a general measure of the uncertainties in the analysed product. Although cross boundary covariances are not currently used, they offer considerable potential for strengthening the ocean-atmosphere coupling in future reanalyses.

The Role of the Indian Ocean Sector for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System: Impact of Atmospheric Coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

2017-01-01

Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30 deg. S to 10 deg. S and 0 deg. N to 25 deg. N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

The role of the Indian Ocean sector for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system: Impact of atmospheric coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

2017-04-01

Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30°S-10°S and 0°N-25°N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

Fully Coupled Nonlinear Fluid Flow and Poroelasticity in Arbitrarily Fractured Porous Media: A Hybrid-Dimensional Computational Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, L.; Zoback, M. D.

2017-10-01

We formulate the problem of fully coupled transient fluid flow and quasi-static poroelasticity in arbitrarily fractured, deformable porous media saturated with a single-phase compressible fluid. The fractures we consider are hydraulically highly conductive, allowing discontinuous fluid flux across them; mechanically, they act as finite-thickness shear deformation zones prior to failure (i.e., nonslipping and nonpropagating), leading to "apparent discontinuity" in strain and stress across them. Local nonlinearity arising from pressure-dependent permeability of fractures is also included. Taking advantage of typically high aspect ratio of a fracture, we do not resolve transversal variations and instead assume uniform flow velocity and simple shear strain within each fracture, rendering the coupled problem numerically more tractable. Fractures are discretized as lower dimensional zero-thickness elements tangentially conforming to unstructured matrix elements. A hybrid-dimensional, equal-low-order, two-field mixed finite element method is developed, which is free from stability issues for a drained coupled system. The fully implicit backward Euler scheme is employed for advancing the fully coupled solution in time, and the Newton-Raphson scheme is implemented for linearization. We show that the fully discretized system retains a canonical form of a fracture-free poromechanical problem; the effect of fractures is translated to the modification of some existing terms as well as the addition of several terms to the capacity, conductivity, and stiffness matrices therefore allowing the development of independent subroutines for treating fractures within a standard computational framework. Our computational model provides more realistic inputs for some fracture-dominated poromechanical problems like fluid-induced seismicity.

Cross-compartment evaluation of a fully-coupled hydrometeorological modeling system using comprehensive observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fersch, Benjamin; Senatore, Alfonso; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-04-01

Fully-coupled hydrometeorological modeling enables investigations about the complex and often non-linear exchange mechanisms among subsurface, land, and atmosphere with respect to water and energy fluxes. The consideration of lateral redistribution of surface and subsurface water in such modeling systems is a crucial enhancement, allowing for a better representation of surface spatial patterns and providing also channel discharge predictions. However, the evaluation of fully-coupled simulations is difficult since the amount of physical detail along with feedback mechanisms leads to high degrees of freedom. Therefore, comprehensive observation data is required to obtain meaningful model configurations. We present a case study for a medium-sized river catchment in southern Germany that includes the calibration of the stand-alone and the evaluation of the fully-coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system with a horizontal resolution of 1 x 1 km2, for the period June to August 2015. ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis is used for model driving. Land-surface processes are represented by the Noah-MP land surface model. Land-cover is described by the EU CORINE data set. Observations for model evaluation are obtained from the TERENO Pre-Alpine observatory (http://www.imk-ifu.kit.edu/tereno.php) and are complemented by further measurements from the ScaleX campaign (http://scalex.imk-ifu.kit.edu) such as atmospheric profiles obtained from radiometer sounding and airborne systems as well as soil moisture and -temperature networks. We show how well water budgets and heat-fluxes are being reproduced by the stand-alone WRF, the stand-alone WRF-Hydro and the fully-coupled WRF-Hydro model.

Marine microbes in 4D-using time series observation to assess the dynamics of the ocean microbiome and its links to ocean health.

PubMed

Buttigieg, Pier Luigi; Fadeev, Eduard; Bienhold, Christina; Hehemann, Laura; Offre, Pierre; Boetius, Antje

2018-02-21

Microbial observation is of high relevance in assessing marine phenomena of scientific and societal concern including ocean productivity, harmful algal blooms, and pathogen exposure. However, we have yet to realise its potential to coherently and comprehensively report on global ocean status. The ability of satellites to monitor the distribution of phytoplankton has transformed our appreciation of microbes as the foundation of key ecosystem services; however, more in-depth understanding of microbial dynamics is needed to fully assess natural and anthropogenically induced variation in ocean ecosystems. While this first synthesis shows that notable efforts exist, vast regions such as the ocean depths, the open ocean, the polar oceans, and most of the Southern Hemisphere lack consistent observation. To secure a coordinated future for a global microbial observing system, existing long-term efforts must be better networked to generate shared bioindicators of the Global Ocean's state and health. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A world ocean model for greenhouse sensitivity studies: resolution intercomparison and the role of diagnostic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A.; Verplank, Lynda; Bettge, Thomas W.

1994-05-01

We have developed an improved version of a world ocean model with the intention of coupling to an atmospheric model. This article documents the simulation capability of this 1° global ocean model, shows improvements over our earlier 5° version, and compares it to features simulated with a 0.5° model. These experiments use a model spin-up methodology whereby the ocean model can subsequently be coupled to an atmospheric model and used for order 100-year coupled model integrations. With present-day computers, 1° is a reasonable compromise in resolution that allows for century-long coupled experiments. The 1° ocean model is derived from a 0.5°-resolution model developed by A. Semtner (Naval Postgraduate School) and R. Chervin (National Center for Atmospheric Research) for studies of the global eddy-resolving world ocean circulation. The 0.5° bottom topography and continental outlines have been altered to be compatible with the 1° resolution, and the Arctic Ocean has been added. We describe the ocean simulation characteristics of the 1° version and compare the result of weakly constraining (three-year time scale) the three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields to the observations below the thermocline (710 m) with the model forced only at the top of the ocean by observed annual mean wind stress, temperature, and salinity. The 1° simulations indicate that major ocean circulation patterns are greatly improved compared to the 5° version and are qualitatively reproduced in comparison to the 0.5° version. Using the annual mean top forcing alone in a 100-year simulation with the 1° version preserves the general features of the major observed temperature and salinity structure with most climate drift occurring mainly beneath the thermocline in the first 50 75 years. Because the thermohaline circulation in the 1° version is relatively weak with annual mean forcing, we demonstrate the importance of the seasonal cycle by performing two sensitivity experiments. Results show a dramatic intensification of the meridional overturning circulation (order of magnitude) with perpetual winter surface temperature forcing in the North Atlantic and strong intensification (factor of three) with perpetual early winter temperatures in that region. These effects are felt throughout the Atlantic (particularly an intensified and northward-shifted Gulf Stream outflow). In the Pacific, the temperature gradient strengthens in the thermocline, thus helping counter the systematic error of a thermocline that is too diffuse.

Operational Ocean Modelling with the Harvard Ocean Prediction System

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-01

tno.nl TNO-rapportnummer TNO-DV2008 A417 Opdrachtnummer Datum november 2008 Auteur (s) dr. F.P.A. Lam dr. ir. M.W. Schouten dr. L.A. te Raa...area of theory and implementation of numerical schemes and parameterizations, ocean models have grown from experimental tools to full-blown ocean...sound propagation through mesoscale features using 3-D coupled mode theory , Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA. 1992. [9] Robinson

A Unified Data Assimilation Strategy for Regional Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Prediction Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Lian; Liu, Bin; Zhang, Fuqing; Weng, Yonghui

2014-05-01

Improving tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts is a top priority in weather forecasting. Assimilating various observational data to produce better initial conditions for numerical models using advanced data assimilation techniques has been shown to benefit TC intensity forecasts, whereas assimilating large-scale environmental circulation into regional models by spectral nudging or Scale-Selective Data Assimilation (SSDA) has been demonstrated to improve TC track forecasts. Meanwhile, taking into account various air-sea interaction processes by high-resolution coupled air-sea modelling systems has also been shown to improve TC intensity forecasts. Despite the advances in data assimilation and air-sea coupled models, large errors in TC intensity and track forecasting remain. For example, Hurricane Nate (2011) has brought considerable challenge for the TC operational forecasting community, with very large intensity forecast errors (27, 25, and 40 kts for 48, 72, and 96 h, respectively) for the official forecasts. Considering the slow-moving nature of Hurricane Nate, it is reasonable to hypothesize that air-sea interaction processes played a critical role in the intensity change of the storm, and accurate representation of the upper ocean dynamics and thermodynamics is necessary to quantitatively describe the air-sea interaction processes. Currently, data assimilation techniques are generally only applied to hurricane forecasting in stand-alone atmospheric or oceanic model. In fact, most of the regional hurricane forecasting models only included data assimilation techniques for improving the initial condition of the atmospheric model. In such a situation, the benefit of adjustments in one model (atmospheric or oceanic) by assimilating observational data can be compromised by errors from the other model. Thus, unified data assimilation techniques for coupled air-sea modelling systems, which not only simultaneously assimilate atmospheric and oceanic observations into the coupled air-sea modelling system, but also nudging the large-scale environmental flow in the regional model towards global model forecasts are of increasing necessity. In this presentation, we will outline a strategy for an integrated approach in air-sea coupled data assimilation and discuss its benefits and feasibility from incremental results for select historical hurricane cases.

Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

2006-02-01

Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

A sensitivity study of the coupled simulation of the Northeast Brazil rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Vasubandhu

2007-06-01

Two long-term coupled ocean-land-atmosphere simulations with slightly different parameterization of the diagnostic shallow inversion clouds in the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled climate model are compared for their annual cycle and interannual variability of the northeast Brazil (NEB) rainfall variability. It is seen that the solar insolation affected by the changes to the shallow inversion clouds results in large scale changes to the gradients of the SST and the surface pressure. The latter in turn modulates the surface convergence and the associated Atlantic ITCZ precipitation and the NEB annual rainfall variability. In contrast, the differences in the NEB interannual rainfall variability between the two coupled simulations is attributed to their different remote ENSO forcing.

Mesosacle eddies in a high resolution OGCM and coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, H.; Lin, P.

2017-12-01

The present study described high-resolution climate modeling efforts including oceanic, atmospheric and coupled general circulation model (GCM) at the state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). The high-resolution OGCM is established based on the latest version of the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model (LICOM2.1), but its horizontal resolution and vertical resolution are increased to 1/10° and 55 layers, respectively. Forced by the surface fluxes from the reanalysis and observed data, the model has been integrated for approximately more than 80 model years. Compared with the simulation of the coarse-resolution OGCM, the eddy-resolving OGCM not only better simulates the spatial-temporal features of mesoscale eddies and the paths and positions of western boundary currents but also reproduces the large meander of the Kuroshio Current and its interannual variability. Another aspect, namely, the complex structures of equatorial Pacific currents and currents in the coastal ocean of China, are better captured due to the increased horizontal and vertical resolution. Then we coupled the high resolution OGCM to NCAR CAM4 with 25km resolution, in which the mesoscale air-sea interaction processes are better captured.

GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delworth, T.L.; Broccoli, A.J.; Rosati, A.; Stouffer, R.J.; Balaji, V.; Beesley, J.A.; Cooke, W.F.; Dixon, K.W.; Dunne, J.; Dunne, K.A.; Durachta, J.W.; Findell, K.L.; Ginoux, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Gordon, C.T.; Griffies, S.M.; Gudgel, R.; Harrison, M.J.; Held, I.M.; Hemler, R.S.; Horowitz, L.W.; Klein, S.A.; Knutson, T.R.; Kushner, P.J.; Langenhorst, A.R.; Lee, H.-C.; Lin, S.-J.; Lu, J.; Malyshev, S.L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Russell, J.; Schwarzkopf, M.D.; Shevliakova, E.; Sirutis, J.J.; Spelman, M.J.; Stern, W.F.; Winton, M.; Wittenberg, A.T.; Wyman, B.; Zeng, F.; Zhang, R.

2006-01-01

The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Tw o versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2?? latitude ?? 2.5?? longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1?? in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30?? becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3?? at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The co ntrol simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have be en used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/). ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

El Nino-southern oscillation simulated in an MRI atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nagai, T.; Tokioka, T.; Endoh, M.

A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was time integrated for 30 years to study interannual variability in the tropics. The atmospheric component is a global GCM with 5 levels in the vertical and 4[degrees]latitude X 5[degrees] longitude grids in the horizontal including standard physical processes (e.g., interactive clouds). The oceanic component is a GCM for the Pacific with 19 levels in the vertical and 1[degrees]x 2.5[degrees] grids in the horizontal including seasonal varying solar radiation as forcing. The model succeeded in reproducing interannual variations that resemble the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with realistic seasonal variations in the atmospheric andmore » oceanic fields. The model ENSO cycle has a time scale of approximately 5 years and the model El Nino (warm) events are locked roughly in phase to the seasonal cycle. The cold events, however, are less evident in comparison with the El Nino events. The time scale of the model ENSO cycle is determined by propagation time of signals from the central-eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the eastern Pacific. Seasonal timing is also important in the ENSO time scale: wind anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific occur in summer and the atmosphere ocean coupling in the western Pacific operates efficiently in the first half of the year.« less

Final Technical Report for Collaborative Research: Developing and Implementing Ocean-Atmosphere Reanalyses for Climate Applications (OARCA)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Compo, Gilbert P

As an important step toward a coupled data assimilation system for generating reanalysis fields needed to assess climate model projections, the Ocean Atmosphere Coupled Reanalysis for Climate Applications (OARCA) project assesses and improves the longest reanalyses currently available of the atmosphere and ocean: the 20th Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation with sparse observational input (SODAsi) system, respectively. In this project, we make off-line but coordinated improvements in the 20CR and SODAsi datasets, with improvements in one feeding into improvements of the other through an iterative generation of new versions. These datasets now span from themore » 19th to 21st centuries. We then study the extreme weather and variability from days to decades of the resulting datasets. A total of 24 publications have been produced in this project.« less

Cohesive and mixed sediment in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS v3.6) implemented in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST r1234)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwood, Christopher R.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Harris, Courtney K.; Rinehimer, J. Paul; Verney, Romaric; Ferré, Bénédicte

2018-05-01

We describe and demonstrate algorithms for treating cohesive and mixed sediment that have been added to the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS version 3.6), as implemented in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST Subversion repository revision 1234). These include the following: floc dynamics (aggregation and disaggregation in the water column); changes in floc characteristics in the seabed; erosion and deposition of cohesive and mixed (combination of cohesive and non-cohesive) sediment; and biodiffusive mixing of bed sediment. These routines supplement existing non-cohesive sediment modules, thereby increasing our ability to model fine-grained and mixed-sediment environments. Additionally, we describe changes to the sediment bed layering scheme that improve the fidelity of the modeled stratigraphic record. Finally, we provide examples of these modules implemented in idealized test cases and a realistic application.

Imaging, radio, and modeling results pertaining to the ionospheric signature of the 11 March 2011 tsunami over the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makela, J. J.; Lognonne, P.; Occhipinti, G.; Hebert, H.; Gehrels, T.; Coisson, P.; Rolland, L. M.; Allgeyer, S.; Kherani, A.

2011-12-01

The Mw=9.0 earthquake that occurred off the east coast of Honshu, Japan on 11 March 2011 launched a tsunami that traveled across the Pacific Ocean, in turn launching vertically propagating atmospheric gravity waves. Upon reaching 250-350 km in altitude, these waves impressed their signature on the thermosphere/ionosphere system. We present observations of this signature obtained using a variety of radio instruments and an imaging system located on the islands of Hawaii. These measurements represent the first optical images recorded of the airglow signature resulting from the passage of a tsunami. Results from these instruments clearly show wave structure propagating in the upper atmosphere with the same velocity as the ocean tsunami, emphasizing the coupled nature of the ocean, atmosphere, and ionosphere. Modeling results are also presented to highlight current understandings of this coupling process.

Effects of oceanic salinity on body condition in sea snakes.

PubMed

Brischoux, François; Rolland, Virginie; Bonnet, Xavier; Caillaud, Matthieu; Shine, Richard

2012-08-01

Since the transition from terrestrial to marine environments poses strong osmoregulatory and energetic challenges, temporal and spatial fluctuations in oceanic salinity might influence salt and water balance (and hence, body condition) in marine tetrapods. We assessed the effects of salinity on three species of sea snakes studied by mark-recapture in coral-reef habitats in the Neo-Caledonian Lagoon. These three species include one fully aquatic hydrophiine (Emydocephalus annulatus), one primarily aquatic laticaudine (Laticauda laticaudata), and one frequently terrestrial laticaudine (Laticauda saintgironsi). We explored how oceanic salinity affected the snakes' body condition across various temporal and spatial scales relevant to each species' ecology, using linear mixed models and multimodel inference. Mean annual salinity exerted a consistent and negative effect on the body condition of all three snake species. The most terrestrial taxon (L. saintgironsi) was sensitive to salinity over a short temporal scale, corresponding to the duration of a typical marine foraging trip for this species. In contrast, links between oceanic salinity and body condition in the fully aquatic E. annulatus and the highly aquatic L. laticaudata were strongest at a long-term (annual) scale. The sophisticated salt-excreting systems of sea snakes allow them to exploit marine environments, but do not completely overcome the osmoregulatory challenges posed by oceanic conditions. Future studies could usefully explore such effects in other secondarily marine taxa such as seabirds, turtles, and marine mammals.

Another Look at the Markowitz Wobble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickman, S. R.

2006-05-01

The Markowitz wobble is a small-amplitude, irregular, long-period feature of Earth's polar motion. Despite a contentious history, doubts concerning its existence have apparently faded in recent decades (see, e.g., Poma 2000), and several studies have addressed the question of its excitation. Among the most promising is the proposal by Dumberry & Bloxham (2002; see also Dumberry 2005 and Guo & Buffett 2005) that gravitational and inertial coupling between the mantle and an inner core tilted periodically by outer core hydromagnetic oscillations could - under optimal conditions - reproduce key characteristics of the Markowitz wobble. Those conditions include a moderately high inner core viscosity and high magnetic field strength at the inner core boundary, and fluid core oscillations with a ~ 30-year period. In contrast, oceanic and atmospheric angular momentum variations marginally fail to excite decadal polar motion to the observed level (Gross et al. 2005, also Celaya et al. 1999; but see de Viron et al. 2004). In 1983 I showed that, if the oceans and solid earth were treated as a tightly coupled two-body rotating system, it was possible (depending on the mathematical form of the coupling) for the system to possess 2 natural wobble frequencies corresponding fairly well to the observed Chandler and Markowitz wobbles. The treatment depended on assuming that the oceans respond in an equilibrium manner to rotational perturbations, an approximation justified by the long periods of those wobbles. If the Markowitz wobble is indeed a natural resonance of the ocean - solid earth system, the effectiveness of all proposed excitation sources might require re-evaluation. For this talk I have revisited my earlier investigation, extending the theory to account for dynamic oceanic behavior in response to perturbations of the two-body system's rotation. The extension is based on the "broad-band" approach I employed (in 1993) for determining tidal effects on rotation. Results will be presented for various types of ocean - earth coupling.

Coupled Research in Ocean Acoustics and Signal Processing for the Next Generation of Underwater Acoustic Communication Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-05

JPAnalytics LLC CC: DCMA Boston DTIC Director, NRL Progress Report #8 Coupled Research in Ocean Acoustics and Signal Processing for the Next...Generation of Underwater Acoustic Communication Systems Principal Investigator’s Name: Dr. James Preisig Period Covered By Report: 1/20/2016 to 4/19/2016...Technical work this period has spanned two areas. The first of these is VHF Acoustics . During this time period, the Principle Investigator worked with Dr

A Stratification Boomerang: Nonlinear Dependence of Deep Southern Ocean Ventilation on PCO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galbraith, E. D.; Merlis, T. M.

2014-12-01

Strong correlations between atmospheric CO2, Antarctic temperatures, and marine proxy records have hinted that ventilation of the deep Southern Ocean may have played a central role in the variations of CO2 over glacial-interglacial cycles. One proposition is that, in general, the Southern Ocean ventilates the deep more strongly under higher CO2, due to a change in winds and/or the dominance of thermal stratification in a warm ocean, which weakens ocean biological carbon storage. Here, we explore this idea with a suite of multi-millennial simulations using the GFDL CM2Mc global coupled model. The results are, indeed, consistent with increasing ventilation of the Southern Ocean as pCO2 increases above modern. However, they reveal a surprising twist under low pCO2: increased salinity of the Southern Ocean, due in part to weakening atmospheric moisture transport, actually increases ventilation rate of the deep ocean under low pCO2 as well. This implies that a nadir of Southern Ocean ventilation occurs at intermediate pCO2, which the model estimates as being close to that of the present-day. This is at odds with the interpretation that weak ventilation of the deep Southern Ocean was the unifying coupled mechanism for the glacial pCO2 cycles. Rather, it suggests that factors other than the ventilation rate of the deep Southern Ocean, such as iron fertilization, ecosystem changes, water mass distributions, and sea ice cover, were key players in the glacial-interglacial CO2 changes.

Connecting Ocean Heat Transport Changes from the Midlatitudes to the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hezel, P.; Nummelin, A.; Li, C.

2017-12-01

Under greenhouse warming, climate models simulate a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the associated ocean heat transport at midlatitudes but an increase in the ocean heat transport to the Arctic Ocean. These opposing trends lead to what could appear to be a discrepancy in the reported ocean contribution to Arctic amplification. This study clarifies how ocean heat transport affects Arctic climate under strong greenhouse warming using a set of the 21st century simulations performed within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The results suggest that a future reduction in subpolar ocean heat loss enhances ocean heat transport to the Arctic Ocean, driving an increase in Arctic Ocean heat content and contributing to the intermodel spread in Arctic amplification. The results caution against extrapolating the forced oceanic signal from the midlatitudes to the Arctic.

Modeling Wave-Ice Interactions in the Marginal Ice Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orzech, Mark; Shi, Fengyan; Bateman, Sam; Veeramony, Jay; Calantoni, Joe

2015-04-01

The small-scale (O(m)) interactions between waves and ice floes in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) are investigated with a coupled model system. Waves are simulated with the non-hydrostatic finite-volume model NHWAVE (Ma et al., 2012) and ice floes are represented as bonded collections of smaller particles with the discrete element system LIGGGHTS (Kloss et al., 2012). The physics of fluid and ice are recreated as authentically as possible, to allow the coupled system to supplement and/or substitute for more costly and demanding field experiments. The presentation will first describe the development and validation of the coupled system, then discuss the results of a series of virtual experiments in which ice floe and wave characteristics are varied to examine their effects on energy dissipation, MIZ floe size distribution, and ice pack retreat rates. Although Wadhams et al. (1986) suggest that only a small portion (roughly 10%) of wave energy entering the MIZ is reflected, dissipation mechanisms for the remaining energy have yet to be delineated or measured. The virtual experiments are designed to focus on specific properties and processes - such as floe size and shape, collision and fracturing events, and variations in wave climate - and measure their relative roles the transfer of energy and momentum from waves to ice. Questions to be examined include: How is energy dissipated by ice floe collisions, fracturing, and drag, and how significant is the wave attenuation associated with each process? Do specific wave/floe length scale ratios cause greater wave attenuation? How does ice material strength affect the rate of wave energy loss? The coupled system will ultimately be used to test and improve upon wave-ice parameterizations for large-scale climate models. References: >Kloss, C., C. Goniva, A. Hager, S. Amberger, and S. Pirker (2012). Models, algorithms and validation for opensource DEM and CFD-DEM. Progress in Computational Fluid Dynamics 12(2/3), 140-152. >Ma, G., F. Shi, and J.T. Kirby (2012). Shock-capturing non-hydrostatic model for fully dispersive surface wave processes. Ocean Modelling 43-44, 22-35. >Wadhams P., V. Squire, J.A. Ewing, and R.W. Pascal (1986). The effect of the marginal ice zone on the directional wave spectrum of the ocean. J. Phys. Oceanog., 16(2), 358-376.

Can increased poleward oceanic heat flux explain the warm Cretaceous climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

1996-10-01

The poleward transport of heat in the mid-Cretaceous (100 Ma) is examined using an idealized coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The oceanic component consists of two zonally averaged basins representing the proto-Pacific and proto-Indian oceans and models the dynamics of the meridional thermohaline circulation. The atmospheric component is a simple energy and moisture balance model which includes the diffusive meridional transport of sensible heat and moisture. The ocean model is spun up with a variety of plausible Cretaceous surface temperature and salinity profiles, and a consistent atmosphere is objectively derived based on the resultant sea surface temperature and the surface heat and freshwater fluxes. The coupled model does not exhibit climate drift. Multiple equilibria of the coupled model are found that break the initial symmetry of the ocean circulation; several of these equilibria have one-cell (northern or southern sinking) thermohaline circulation patterns. Two main classes of circulation are found: circulations where the densest water is relatively cool and is formed at the polar latitudes and circulations where the densest water is warm, but quite saline, and the strongest sinking occurs at the tropics. In all cases, significant amounts of warm, saline bottom water are formed in the proto-Indian basin which modify the deepwater characteristics in the larger (proto-Pacific) basin. Temperatures in the deep ocean are warm, 10°-17°C, in agreement with benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope data. The poleward transport of heat in the modeled Cretaceous oceans is larger than in some comparable models of the present day thermohaline circulation and significantly larger than estimates of similar processes in the present-day ocean. It is consistently larger in the polar sinking cases when compared with that seen in the tropical sinking cases, but this represents an increase of only 10%. The largest increase over present-day model transports is in the atmospheric latent heat transport, where an increased hydrological cycle (especially in the tropical sinking cases) contributes up to an extra 1 PW of poleward heat transport. Better constraints on the oceanic deepwater circulation during this period are necessary before the meridional circulation can be unambiguously described.

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

2018-06-01

We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

Effects of ocean-atmosphere coupling on rainfall over the Indian Ocean and northwestern Pacific Ocean during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z. Q.; Xie, S. P.; Zhou, W.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM), forced with specified SST, has been widely used in climate studies. On one hand, AGCM is much faster to run compared to coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Also, the identical SST forcing allows a clean evaluation of the atmospheric component of CGCM. On the other hand, the coupling between atmosphere and ocean is missed in such atmosphere-only simulations. It is not clear how such simplification could affect the simulate of the atmosphere. In this study, the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling is studied by comparing a CGCM simulation with an AGCM simulation which is forced with monthly SSTs specified from the CGCM simulation. Particularly, we focus on the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall over the IONWP during boreal summer. The IONWP is a unique region with a strong negative correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during boreal summer on the interannual time scale. The lead/lag correlation analysis suggests a negative feedback of rainfall on SST, which is only reasonably captured by CGCMs. We find that the lack of the negative feedback in AGCM not only enhances the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall but also increases the internal variability of rainfall over the IONWP. A simple mechanism is proposed to explain such enhancement. In addition, AGCM is able to capture the large-scale rainfall pattern over the IONWP during boreal summer, this is because that rainfall here is caused by remote ENSO effect on the interannual time scale. Our results herein suggest that people should be more careful when using an AGCM for climate change studies.

The Evolution of Indian and Pacific Ocean Denitrification and Nitrogen Dynamcs since the Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravelo, A. C.; Carney, C.; Rosenthal, Y.; Holbourn, A.; Kulhanek, D. K.

2017-12-01

The feedbacks between geochemical cycles and physical climate change are poorly understood; however, there has been tremendous progress in developing coupled models to help predict the direction and strength of these feedbacks. As such, there is a need for more data to validate and test these models. To this end, the nitrogen (N) cycle, and its links to the biological pump and to climate, is an active area of paleoceanographic research. Using N isotope records, Robinson et al. (2014) showed that pelagic denitrification in the Indian and Pacific Oceans intensified as climate cooled and subsurface ventilation decreased since the Pliocene. They pointed out that a more ventilated warm Pliocene contrasts with glacial-interglacial patterns wherein more ventilation occurs during cold phases, indicating that different mechanisms may occur at different timescales. Our objective is to better understand the nature of the feedbacks between the oceanic N cycle and climate by focusing on the large dynamic range of conditions that occurred during and since the Miocene. We used new cores drilled during IODP Expedition 363 to generate bulk sediment N isotope records at three western tropical Pacific sites (U1486, U1488, U1490) and one southeastern tropical Indian Ocean site (U1482). We find that the N isotope trends since the Pliocene are in agreement with previous studies showing increasing denitrification as climate cooled. In the Miocene, the Indian Ocean record shows no long-term N isotope trend whereas the Pacific Ocean records show a trend that is roughly coupled to changes in global climate suggesting that pelagic denitrification in the Pacific was strongly influenced by greater ventilation during global warmth. However, there are notable deviations from this coupling during several intervals in the Miocene, and there are site-to-site differences in trends. These deviations and differences can be explained by changes in tropical productivity (e.g., late Miocene biogenic bloom), which drove changes subsurface oxygenation and denitrification, and by changes in regional circulation. Our study provides fundamental data that can be used to validate conceptual and numerical models of the long-term coupling of climate, biological productivity and ocean chemistry.

Tropical Atlantic climate response to different freshwater input in high latitudes with an ocean-only general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Men, Guang; Wan, Xiuquan; Liu, Zedong

2016-10-01

Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanic-induced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.

Enhanced Ahead-of-Eye TC Coastal Ocean Cooling Processes and their Impact on Air-Sea Heat Fluxes and Storm Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seroka, G. N.; Miles, T. N.; Glenn, S. M.; Xu, Y.; Forney, R.; Roarty, H.; Schofield, O.; Kohut, J. T.

2016-02-01

Any landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) must first traverse the coastal ocean. TC research, however, has focused over the deep ocean, where TCs typically spend the vast majority of their lifetime. This paper will show that the ocean's response to TCs can be different between deep and shallow water, and that the additional shallow water processes must be included in coupled models for accurate air-sea flux treatment and TC intensity prediction. The authors will present newly observed coastal ocean processes that occurred in response to Hurricane Irene (2011), due to the presence of a coastline, an ocean bottom, and highly stratified conditions. These newly observed processes led to enhanced ahead-of-eye SST cooling that significantly impacted air-sea heat fluxes and Irene's operationally over-predicted storm intensity. Using semi-idealized modeling, we find that in shallow water in Irene, only 6% of cooling due to air-sea heat fluxes, 17% of cooling due to 1D vertical mixing, and 50% of cooling due to all processes (1D mixing, air-sea heat fluxes, upwelling, and advection) occurred ahead-of-eye—consistent with previous studies. Observations from an underwater glider and buoys, however, indicated 75-100% of total SST cooling over the continental shelf was ahead-of-eye. Thus, the new coastal ocean cooling processes found in this study must occur almost completely ahead-of-eye. We show that Irene's intense cooling was not captured by basic satellite SST products and coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane models, and that including the cooling in WRF modeling mitigated the high bias in model predictions. Finally, we provide evidence that this SST cooling—not track, wind shear, or dry air intrusion—was the key missing contribution to Irene's decay just prior to NJ landfall. Ongoing work is exploring the use of coupled WRF-ROMS modeling in the coastal zone.

Role of the Indonesian Throughflow in controlling regional mean climate and rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, Matthew H.; Santoso, Agus; Phipps, Steven; Ummenhofer, Caroline

2017-04-01

The role of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) in controlling regional mean climate and rainfall is examined using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Experiments employing both a closed and open ITF are equilibrated to steady state and then 200 years of natural climatic variability is assessed within each model run, with a particular focus on the Indian Ocean region. Opening of the ITF results in a mean Pacific-to-Indian throughflow of 21 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 sec-1), which advects warm west Pacific waters into the east Indian Ocean. This warm signature is propagated westward by the mean ocean flow, however it never reaches the west Indian Ocean, as an ocean-atmosphere feedback in the tropics generates a weakened trade wind field that is reminiscent of the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This is in marked contrast to the Indian Ocean response to an open ITF when examined in ocean-only model experiments; which sees a strengthening of both the Indian Ocean South Equatorial Current and the Agulhas Current. The coupled feedback in contrast leads to cooler conditions over the west Indian Ocean, and an anomalous zonal atmospheric pressure gradient that enhances the advection of warm moist air toward south Asia and Australia. This leaves the African continent significantly drier, and much of Australia and southern Asia significantly wetter, in response to the opening of the ITF. Given the substantial interannual variability that the ITF exhibits in the present-day climate system, and the restriction of the ITF gateway in past climate eras, this could have important implications for understanding past and present regional rainfall patterns around the Indian Ocean and over neighbouring land-masses.