Semantic Indexing of Multimedia Content Using Visual, Audio, and Text Cues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, W. H.; Iyengar, Giridharan; Lin, Ching-Yung; Naphade, Milind Ramesh; Neti, Chalapathy; Nock, Harriet J.; Smith, John R.

2003-12-01

We present a learning-based approach to the semantic indexing of multimedia content using cues derived from audio, visual, and text features. We approach the problem by developing a set of statistical models for a predefined lexicon. Novel concepts are then mapped in terms of the concepts in the lexicon. To achieve robust detection of concepts, we exploit features from multiple modalities, namely, audio, video, and text. Concept representations are modeled using Gaussian mixture models (GMM), hidden Markov models (HMM), and support vector machines (SVM). Models such as Bayesian networks and SVMs are used in a late-fusion approach to model concepts that are not explicitly modeled in terms of features. Our experiments indicate promise in the proposed classification and fusion methodologies: our proposed fusion scheme achieves more than 10% relative improvement over the best unimodal concept detector.

Reducing uncertainties in decadal variability of the global carbon budget with multiple datasets

PubMed Central

Li, Wei; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Yilong; Peng, Shushi; Broquet, Grégoire; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Canadell, Josep G.; Cooper, Leila; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Le Quéré, Corinne; Myneni, Ranga B.; Peters, Glen P.; Piao, Shilong; Pongratz, Julia

2016-01-01

Conventional calculations of the global carbon budget infer the land sink as a residual between emissions, atmospheric accumulation, and the ocean sink. Thus, the land sink accumulates the errors from the other flux terms and bears the largest uncertainty. Here, we present a Bayesian fusion approach that combines multiple observations in different carbon reservoirs to optimize the land (B) and ocean (O) carbon sinks, land use change emissions (L), and indirectly fossil fuel emissions (F) from 1980 to 2014. Compared with the conventional approach, Bayesian optimization decreases the uncertainties in B by 41% and in O by 46%. The L uncertainty decreases by 47%, whereas F uncertainty is marginally improved through the knowledge of natural fluxes. Both ocean and net land uptake (B + L) rates have positive trends of 29 ± 8 and 37 ± 17 Tg C⋅y−2 since 1980, respectively. Our Bayesian fusion of multiple observations reduces uncertainties, thereby allowing us to isolate important variability in global carbon cycle processes. PMID:27799533

Integrated Display and Simulation for Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast and Traffic Collision Avoidance System Data Fusion

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanran; Xiao, Gang; Dai, Zhouyun

2017-01-01

Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B) is the direction of airspace surveillance development. Research analyzing the benefits of Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) and ADS-B data fusion is almost absent. The paper proposes an ADS-B minimum system from ADS-B In and ADS-B Out. In ADS-B In, a fusion model with a variable sampling Variational Bayesian-Interacting Multiple Model (VSVB-IMM) algorithm is proposed for integrated display and an airspace traffic situation display is developed by using ADS-B information. ADS-B Out includes ADS-B Out transmission based on a simulator platform and an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) platform. This paper describes the overall implementation of ADS-B minimum system, including theoretical model design, experimental simulation verification, engineering implementation, results analysis, etc. Simulation and implementation results show that the fused system has better performance than each independent subsystem and it can work well in engineering applications. PMID:29137194

Chase: Control of Heterogeneous Autonomous Sensors for Situational Awareness

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-03

remained the discovery and analysis of new foundational methodology for information collection and fusion that exercises rigorous feedback control over...simultaneously achieve quantified information and physical objectives. New foundational methodology for information collection and fusion that exercises...11.2.1. In the general area of novel stochastic systems analysis it seems appropriate to mention the pioneering work on non -Bayesian distributed learning

Assessment of Data Fusion Algorithms for Earth Observation Change Detection Processes.

PubMed

Molina, Iñigo; Martinez, Estibaliz; Morillo, Carmen; Velasco, Jesus; Jara, Alvaro

2016-09-30

In this work a parametric multi-sensor Bayesian data fusion approach and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) are used for a Change Detection problem. For this purpose two sets of SPOT5-PAN images have been used, which are in turn used for Change Detection Indices (CDIs) calculation. For minimizing radiometric differences, a methodology based on zonal "invariant features" is suggested. The choice of one or the other CDI for a change detection process is a subjective task as each CDI is probably more or less sensitive to certain types of changes. Likewise, this idea might be employed to create and improve a "change map", which can be accomplished by means of the CDI's informational content. For this purpose, information metrics such as the Shannon Entropy and "Specific Information" have been used to weight the changes and no-changes categories contained in a certain CDI and thus introduced in the Bayesian information fusion algorithm. Furthermore, the parameters of the probability density functions (pdf's) that best fit the involved categories have also been estimated. Conversely, these considerations are not necessary for mapping procedures based on the discriminant functions of a SVM. This work has confirmed the capabilities of probabilistic information fusion procedure under these circumstances.

Textual and visual content-based anti-phishing: a Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Haijun; Liu, Gang; Chow, Tommy W S; Liu, Wenyin

2011-10-01

A novel framework using a Bayesian approach for content-based phishing web page detection is presented. Our model takes into account textual and visual contents to measure the similarity between the protected web page and suspicious web pages. A text classifier, an image classifier, and an algorithm fusing the results from classifiers are introduced. An outstanding feature of this paper is the exploration of a Bayesian model to estimate the matching threshold. This is required in the classifier for determining the class of the web page and identifying whether the web page is phishing or not. In the text classifier, the naive Bayes rule is used to calculate the probability that a web page is phishing. In the image classifier, the earth mover's distance is employed to measure the visual similarity, and our Bayesian model is designed to determine the threshold. In the data fusion algorithm, the Bayes theory is used to synthesize the classification results from textual and visual content. The effectiveness of our proposed approach was examined in a large-scale dataset collected from real phishing cases. Experimental results demonstrated that the text classifier and the image classifier we designed deliver promising results, the fusion algorithm outperforms either of the individual classifiers, and our model can be adapted to different phishing cases. © 2011 IEEE

Practical differences among probabilities, possibilities, and credibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandin, Jean-Francois; Moulin, Caroline

2002-03-01

This paper presents some important differences that exist between theories, which allow the uncertainty management in data fusion. The main comparative results illustrated in this paper are the followings: Incompatibility between decisions got from probabilities and credibilities is highlighted. In the dynamic frame, as remarked in [19] or [17], belief and plausibility of Dempster-Shafer model do not frame the Bayesian probability. This framing can however be obtained by the Modified Dempster-Shafer approach. It also can be obtained in the Bayesian framework either by simulation techniques, or with a studentization. The uncommitted in the Dempster-Shafer way, e.g. the mass accorded to the ignorance, gives a mechanism similar to the reliability in the Bayesian model. Uncommitted mass in Dempster-Shafer theory or reliability in Bayes theory act like a filter that weakens extracted information, and improves robustness to outliners. So, it is logical to observe on examples like the one presented particularly by D.M. Buede, a faster convergence of a Bayesian method that doesn't take into account the reliability, in front of Dempster-Shafer method which uses uncommitted mass. But, on Bayesian masses, if reliability is taken into account, at the same level that the uncommited, e.g. F=1-m, we observe an equivalent rate for convergence. When Dempster-Shafer and Bayes operator are informed by uncertainty, faster or lower convergence can be exhibited on non Bayesian masses. This is due to positive or negative synergy between information delivered by sensors. This effect is a direct consequence of non additivity when considering non Bayesian masses. Unknowledge of the prior in bayesian techniques can be quickly compensated by information accumulated as time goes on by a set of sensors. All these results are presented on simple examples, and developed when necessary.

Analysis of decision fusion algorithms in handling uncertainties for integrated health monitoring systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zein-Sabatto, Saleh; Mikhail, Maged; Bodruzzaman, Mohammad; DeSimio, Martin; Derriso, Mark; Behbahani, Alireza

2012-06-01

It has been widely accepted that data fusion and information fusion methods can improve the accuracy and robustness of decision-making in structural health monitoring systems. It is arguably true nonetheless, that decision-level is equally beneficial when applied to integrated health monitoring systems. Several decisions at low-levels of abstraction may be produced by different decision-makers; however, decision-level fusion is required at the final stage of the process to provide accurate assessment about the health of the monitored system as a whole. An example of such integrated systems with complex decision-making scenarios is the integrated health monitoring of aircraft. Thorough understanding of the characteristics of the decision-fusion methodologies is a crucial step for successful implementation of such decision-fusion systems. In this paper, we have presented the major information fusion methodologies reported in the literature, i.e., probabilistic, evidential, and artificial intelligent based methods. The theoretical basis and characteristics of these methodologies are explained and their performances are analyzed. Second, candidate methods from the above fusion methodologies, i.e., Bayesian, Dempster-Shafer, and fuzzy logic algorithms are selected and their applications are extended to decisions fusion. Finally, fusion algorithms are developed based on the selected fusion methods and their performance are tested on decisions generated from synthetic data and from experimental data. Also in this paper, a modeling methodology, i.e. cloud model, for generating synthetic decisions is presented and used. Using the cloud model, both types of uncertainties; randomness and fuzziness, involved in real decision-making are modeled. Synthetic decisions are generated with an unbiased process and varying interaction complexities among decisions to provide for fair performance comparison of the selected decision-fusion algorithms. For verification purposes, implementation results of the developed fusion algorithms on structural health monitoring data collected from experimental tests are reported in this paper.

Joint Data Management for MOVINT Data-to-Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-07-01

flux tensor , aligned motion history images, and related approaches have been shown to be versatile approaches [12, 16, 17, 18]. Scaling these...methods include voting , neural networks, fuzzy logic, neuro-dynamic programming, support vector machines, Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer methods. One way...Information Fusion, 2010. [16] F. Bunyak, K. Palaniappan, S. K. Nath, G. Seetharaman, “Flux tensor constrained geodesic active contours with sensor fusion

Distributed Fusion in Sensor Networks with Information Genealogy

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-28

image processing [2], acoustic and speech recognition [3], multitarget tracking [4], distributed fusion [5], and Bayesian inference [6-7]. For...Adaptation for Distant-Talking Speech Recognition." in Proc Acoustics. Speech , and Signal Processing, 2004 |4| Y Bar-Shalom and T 1-. Fortmann...used in speech recognition and other classification applications [8]. But their use in underwater mine classification is limited. In this paper, we

A Smartphone-Based Driver Safety Monitoring System Using Data Fusion

PubMed Central

Lee, Boon-Giin; Chung, Wan-Young

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a method for monitoring driver safety levels using a data fusion approach based on several discrete data types: eye features, bio-signal variation, in-vehicle temperature, and vehicle speed. The driver safety monitoring system was developed in practice in the form of an application for an Android-based smartphone device, where measuring safety-related data requires no extra monetary expenditure or equipment. Moreover, the system provides high resolution and flexibility. The safety monitoring process involves the fusion of attributes gathered from different sensors, including video, electrocardiography, photoplethysmography, temperature, and a three-axis accelerometer, that are assigned as input variables to an inference analysis framework. A Fuzzy Bayesian framework is designed to indicate the driver’s capability level and is updated continuously in real-time. The sensory data are transmitted via Bluetooth communication to the smartphone device. A fake incoming call warning service alerts the driver if his or her safety level is suspiciously compromised. Realistic testing of the system demonstrates the practical benefits of multiple features and their fusion in providing a more authentic and effective driver safety monitoring. PMID:23247416

Assessment of Data Fusion Algorithms for Earth Observation Change Detection Processes

PubMed Central

Molina, Iñigo; Martinez, Estibaliz; Morillo, Carmen; Velasco, Jesus; Jara, Alvaro

2016-01-01

In this work a parametric multi-sensor Bayesian data fusion approach and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) are used for a Change Detection problem. For this purpose two sets of SPOT5-PAN images have been used, which are in turn used for Change Detection Indices (CDIs) calculation. For minimizing radiometric differences, a methodology based on zonal “invariant features” is suggested. The choice of one or the other CDI for a change detection process is a subjective task as each CDI is probably more or less sensitive to certain types of changes. Likewise, this idea might be employed to create and improve a “change map”, which can be accomplished by means of the CDI’s informational content. For this purpose, information metrics such as the Shannon Entropy and “Specific Information” have been used to weight the changes and no-changes categories contained in a certain CDI and thus introduced in the Bayesian information fusion algorithm. Furthermore, the parameters of the probability density functions (pdf’s) that best fit the involved categories have also been estimated. Conversely, these considerations are not necessary for mapping procedures based on the discriminant functions of a SVM. This work has confirmed the capabilities of probabilistic information fusion procedure under these circumstances. PMID:27706048

Prediction of adverse outcomes of acute coronary syndrome using intelligent fusion of triage information with HUMINT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCullough, Claire L.; Novobilski, Andrew J.; Fesmire, Francis M.

2006-04-01

Faculty from the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga and the University of Tennessee College of Medicine, Chattanooga Unit, have used data mining techniques and neural networks to examine a set of fourteen features, data items, and HUMINT assessments for 2,148 emergency room patients with symptoms possibly indicative of Acute Coronary Syndrome. Specifically, the authors have generated Bayesian networks describing linkages and causality in the data, and have compared them with neural networks. The data includes objective information routinely collected during triage and the physician's initial case assessment, a HUMINT appraisal. Both the neural network and the Bayesian network were used to fuse the disparate types of information with the goal of forecasting thirty-day adverse patient outcome. This paper presents details of the methods of data fusion including both the data mining techniques and the neural network. Results are compared using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves describing the outcomes of both methods, both using only objective features and including the subjective physician's assessment. While preliminary, the results of this continuing study are significant both from the perspective of potential use of the intelligent fusion of biomedical informatics to aid the physician in prescribing treatment necessary to prevent serious adverse outcome from ACS and as a model of fusion of objective data with subjective HUMINT assessment. Possible future work includes extension of successfully demonstrated intelligent fusion methods to other medical applications, and use of decision level fusion to combine results from data mining and neural net approaches for even more accurate outcome prediction.

REMOTE LAND MINE(FIELD) DETECTION. An Overview of Techniques (DETECTIE VAN LANDMIJNEN EN MIJNENVELDEN OP AFSTAND. Een Overzicht van de technieken),

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-09-01

titel DETECTIE VAN LANDMIJNEN EN MIJNENVELDEN OP AFSTAND, een overzicht van de technieken auteur (s) Drs. J.S. Groot, Ir. Y.H.L. Janssen datum september...functions based on set theory . The fundamental theory is developed in the sixties. This theory was applicable to binary images (black-and-white images...held at TNO-FEL. Various subjects related to fusion techniques: Dempster Shafer theory , Bayesian inference, Kalman filtering, fuzzy logic. [A15], [B4

A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network

PubMed Central

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information. PMID:25938760

A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

Inferring the most probable maps of underground utilities using Bayesian mapping model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilal, Muhammad; Khan, Wasiq; Muggleton, Jennifer; Rustighi, Emiliano; Jenks, Hugo; Pennock, Steve R.; Atkins, Phil R.; Cohn, Anthony

2018-03-01

Mapping the Underworld (MTU), a major initiative in the UK, is focused on addressing social, environmental and economic consequences raised from the inability to locate buried underground utilities (such as pipes and cables) by developing a multi-sensor mobile device. The aim of MTU device is to locate different types of buried assets in real time with the use of automated data processing techniques and statutory records. The statutory records, even though typically being inaccurate and incomplete, provide useful prior information on what is buried under the ground and where. However, the integration of information from multiple sensors (raw data) with these qualitative maps and their visualization is challenging and requires the implementation of robust machine learning/data fusion approaches. An approach for automated creation of revised maps was developed as a Bayesian Mapping model in this paper by integrating the knowledge extracted from sensors raw data and available statutory records. The combination of statutory records with the hypotheses from sensors was for initial estimation of what might be found underground and roughly where. The maps were (re)constructed using automated image segmentation techniques for hypotheses extraction and Bayesian classification techniques for segment-manhole connections. The model consisting of image segmentation algorithm and various Bayesian classification techniques (segment recognition and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm) provided robust performance on various simulated as well as real sites in terms of predicting linear/non-linear segments and constructing refined 2D/3D maps.

Distinguishing cause from correlation in tokamak experiments to trigger edge-localised plasma instabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webster, Anthony J.; CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB

2014-11-15

The generic question is considered: How can we determine the probability of an otherwise quasi-random event, having been triggered by an external influence? A specific problem is the quantification of the success of techniques to trigger, and hence control, edge-localised plasma instabilities (ELMs) in magnetically confined fusion (MCF) experiments. The development of such techniques is essential to ensure tolerable heat loads on components in large MCF fusion devices, and is necessary for their development into economically successful power plants. Bayesian probability theory is used to rigorously formulate the problem and to provide a formal solution. Accurate but pragmatic methods aremore » developed to estimate triggering probabilities, and are illustrated with experimental data. These allow results from experiments to be quantitatively assessed, and rigorously quantified conclusions to be formed. Example applications include assessing whether triggering of ELMs is a statistical or deterministic process, and the establishment of thresholds to ensure that ELMs are reliably triggered.« less

Long-range dismount activity classification: LODAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garagic, Denis; Peskoe, Jacob; Liu, Fang; Cuevas, Manuel; Freeman, Andrew M.; Rhodes, Bradley J.

2014-06-01

Continuous classification of dismount types (including gender, age, ethnicity) and their activities (such as walking, running) evolving over space and time is challenging. Limited sensor resolution (often exacerbated as a function of platform standoff distance) and clutter from shadows in dense target environments, unfavorable environmental conditions, and the normal properties of real data all contribute to the challenge. The unique and innovative aspect of our approach is a synthesis of multimodal signal processing with incremental non-parametric, hierarchical Bayesian machine learning methods to create a new kind of target classification architecture. This architecture is designed from the ground up to optimally exploit correlations among the multiple sensing modalities (multimodal data fusion) and rapidly and continuously learns (online self-tuning) patterns of distinct classes of dismounts given little a priori information. This increases classification performance in the presence of challenges posed by anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) sensing. To fuse multimodal features, Long-range Dismount Activity Classification (LODAC) develops a novel statistical information theoretic approach for multimodal data fusion that jointly models multimodal data (i.e., a probabilistic model for cross-modal signal generation) and discovers the critical cross-modal correlations by identifying components (features) with maximal mutual information (MI) which is efficiently estimated using non-parametric entropy models. LODAC develops a generic probabilistic pattern learning and classification framework based on a new class of hierarchical Bayesian learning algorithms for efficiently discovering recurring patterns (classes of dismounts) in multiple simultaneous time series (sensor modalities) at multiple levels of feature granularity.

Sensor fusion V; Proceedings of the Meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 15-17, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schenker, Paul S. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Topics addressed include 3D object perception, human-machine interface in multisensor systems, sensor fusion architecture, fusion of multiple and distributed sensors, interface and decision models for sensor fusion, computational networks, simple sensing for complex action, multisensor-based control, and metrology and calibration of multisensor systems. Particular attention is given to controlling 3D objects by sketching 2D views, the graphical simulation and animation environment for flexible structure robots, designing robotic systems from sensorimotor modules, cylindrical object reconstruction from a sequence of images, an accurate estimation of surface properties by integrating information using Bayesian networks, an adaptive fusion model for a distributed detection system, multiple concurrent object descriptions in support of autonomous navigation, robot control with multiple sensors and heuristic knowledge, and optical array detectors for image sensors calibration. (No individual items are abstracted in this volume)

Ontogeny of the spheno-occipital synchondrosis in a modern Queensland, Australian population using computed tomography.

PubMed

Lottering, Nicolene; MacGregor, Donna M; Alston, Clair L; Gregory, Laura S

2015-05-01

Due to disparity regarding the age at which skeletal maturation of the spheno-occipital synchondrosis occurs in forensic and biological literature, this study provides recalibrated multislice computed tomography (MSCT) age standards for the Australian (Queensland) population, using a Bayesian statistical approach. The sample comprises retrospective cranial/cervical MSCT scans obtained from 448 males and 416 females aged birth to 20 years from the Skeletal Biology and Forensic Anthropology Research Osteological Database. Fusion status of the synchondrosis was scored using a modified six-stage scoring tier on an MSCT platform, with negligible observer error (κ = 0.911 ± 0.04, intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.994). Bayesian transition analysis indicates that females are most likely to transition to complete fusion at 13.1 years and males at 15.6 years. Posterior densities were derived for each morphological stage, with complete fusion of the synchondrosis attained in all Queensland males over 16.3 years of age and females aged 13.8 years and older. The results demonstrate significant sexual dimorphism in synchondrosis fusion and are suggestive of intrapopulation variation between major geographic regions in Australia. This study contributes to the growing repository of contemporary anthropological standards calibrated for the Queensland milieu to improve the efficacy of the coronial process for medicolegal death investigation. As a stand-alone age indicator, the basicranial synchondrosis may be consulted as an exclusion criterion when determining the age of majority that constitutes 17 years in Queensland forensic practice. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Machine health prognostics using the Bayesian-inference-based probabilistic indication and high-order particle filtering framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jianbo

2015-12-01

Prognostics is much efficient to achieve zero-downtime performance, maximum productivity and proactive maintenance of machines. Prognostics intends to assess and predict the time evolution of machine health degradation so that machine failures can be predicted and prevented. A novel prognostics system is developed based on the data-model-fusion scheme using the Bayesian inference-based self-organizing map (SOM) and an integration of logistic regression (LR) and high-order particle filtering (HOPF). In this prognostics system, a baseline SOM is constructed to model the data distribution space of healthy machine under an assumption that predictable fault patterns are not available. Bayesian inference-based probability (BIP) derived from the baseline SOM is developed as a quantification indication of machine health degradation. BIP is capable of offering failure probability for the monitored machine, which has intuitionist explanation related to health degradation state. Based on those historic BIPs, the constructed LR and its modeling noise constitute a high-order Markov process (HOMP) to describe machine health propagation. HOPF is used to solve the HOMP estimation to predict the evolution of the machine health in the form of a probability density function (PDF). An on-line model update scheme is developed to adapt the Markov process changes to machine health dynamics quickly. The experimental results on a bearing test-bed illustrate the potential applications of the proposed system as an effective and simple tool for machine health prognostics.

Minimum energy information fusion in sensor networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chapline, G

1999-05-11

In this paper we consider how to organize the sharing of information in a distributed network of sensors and data processors so as to provide explanations for sensor readings with minimal expenditure of energy. We point out that the Minimum Description Length principle provides an approach to information fusion that is more naturally suited to energy minimization than traditional Bayesian approaches. In addition we show that for networks consisting of a large number of identical sensors Kohonen self-organization provides an exact solution to the problem of combing the sensor outputs into minimal description length explanations.

Semantic Likelihood Models for Bayesian Inference in Human-Robot Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweet, Nicholas

Autonomous systems, particularly unmanned aerial systems (UAS), remain limited in au- tonomous capabilities largely due to a poor understanding of their environment. Current sensors simply do not match human perceptive capabilities, impeding progress towards full autonomy. Recent work has shown the value of humans as sources of information within a human-robot team; in target applications, communicating human-generated 'soft data' to autonomous systems enables higher levels of autonomy through large, efficient information gains. This requires development of a 'human sensor model' that allows soft data fusion through Bayesian inference to update the probabilistic belief representations maintained by autonomous systems. Current human sensor models that capture linguistic inputs as semantic information are limited in their ability to generalize likelihood functions for semantic statements: they may be learned from dense data; they do not exploit the contextual information embedded within groundings; and they often limit human input to restrictive and simplistic interfaces. This work provides mechanisms to synthesize human sensor models from constraints based on easily attainable a priori knowledge, develops compression techniques to capture information-dense semantics, and investigates the problem of capturing and fusing semantic information contained within unstructured natural language. A robotic experimental testbed is also developed to validate the above contributions.

Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dong; Svensson, J.; Thomsen, H.; Medina, F.; Werner, A.; Wolf, R.

2013-08-01

In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods.

Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes.

PubMed

Li, Dong; Svensson, J; Thomsen, H; Medina, F; Werner, A; Wolf, R

2013-08-01

In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods.

Multi-atlas label fusion using hybrid of discriminative and generative classifiers for segmentation of cardiac MR images.

PubMed

Sedai, Suman; Garnavi, Rahil; Roy, Pallab; Xi Liang

2015-08-01

Multi-atlas segmentation first registers each atlas image to the target image and transfers the label of atlas image to the coordinate system of the target image. The transferred labels are then combined, using a label fusion algorithm. In this paper, we propose a novel label fusion method which aggregates discriminative learning and generative modeling for segmentation of cardiac MR images. First, a probabilistic Random Forest classifier is trained as a discriminative model to obtain the prior probability of a label at the given voxel of the target image. Then, a probability distribution of image patches is modeled using Gaussian Mixture Model for each label, providing the likelihood of the voxel belonging to the label. The final label posterior is obtained by combining the classification score and the likelihood score under Bayesian rule. Comparative study performed on MICCAI 2013 SATA Segmentation Challenge demonstrates that our proposed hybrid label fusion algorithm is accurate than other five state-of-the-art label fusion methods. The proposed method obtains dice similarity coefficient of 0.94 and 0.92 in segmenting epicardium and endocardium respectively. Moreover, our label fusion method achieves more accurate segmentation results compared to four other label fusion methods.

DAFNE: A Matlab toolbox for Bayesian multi-source remote sensing and ancillary data fusion, with application to flood mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addabbo, Annarita; Refice, Alberto; Lovergine, Francesco P.; Pasquariello, Guido

2018-03-01

High-resolution, remotely sensed images of the Earth surface have been proven to be of help in producing detailed flood maps, thanks to their synoptic overview of the flooded area and frequent revisits. However, flood scenarios can be complex situations, requiring the integration of different data in order to provide accurate and robust flood information. Several processing approaches have been recently proposed to efficiently combine and integrate heterogeneous information sources. In this paper, we introduce DAFNE, a Matlab®-based, open source toolbox, conceived to produce flood maps from remotely sensed and other ancillary information, through a data fusion approach. DAFNE is based on Bayesian Networks, and is composed of several independent modules, each one performing a different task. Multi-temporal and multi-sensor data can be easily handled, with the possibility of following the evolution of an event through multi-temporal output flood maps. Each DAFNE module can be easily modified or upgraded to meet different user needs. The DAFNE suite is presented together with an example of its application.

Bayesian tomography and integrated data analysis in fusion diagnostics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Dong, E-mail: lid@swip.ac.cn; Dong, Y. B.; Deng, Wei

2016-11-15

In this article, a Bayesian tomography method using non-stationary Gaussian process for a prior has been introduced. The Bayesian formalism allows quantities which bear uncertainty to be expressed in the probabilistic form so that the uncertainty of a final solution can be fully resolved from the confidence interval of a posterior probability. Moreover, a consistency check of that solution can be performed by checking whether the misfits between predicted and measured data are reasonably within an assumed data error. In particular, the accuracy of reconstructions is significantly improved by using the non-stationary Gaussian process that can adapt to the varyingmore » smoothness of emission distribution. The implementation of this method to a soft X-ray diagnostics on HL-2A has been used to explore relevant physics in equilibrium and MHD instability modes. This project is carried out within a large size inference framework, aiming at an integrated analysis of heterogeneous diagnostics.« less

Cortical Hierarchies Perform Bayesian Causal Inference in Multisensory Perception

PubMed Central

Rohe, Tim; Noppeney, Uta

2015-01-01

To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the “causal inference problem.” Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation). At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion). Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world. PMID:25710328

Condition monitoring of distributed systems using two-stage Bayesian inference data fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaramillo, Víctor H.; Ottewill, James R.; Dudek, Rafał; Lepiarczyk, Dariusz; Pawlik, Paweł

2017-03-01

In industrial practice, condition monitoring is typically applied to critical machinery. A particular piece of machinery may have its own condition monitoring system that allows the health condition of said piece of equipment to be assessed independently of any connected assets. However, industrial machines are typically complex sets of components that continuously interact with one another. In some cases, dynamics resulting from the inception and development of a fault can propagate between individual components. For example, a fault in one component may lead to an increased vibration level in both the faulty component, as well as in connected healthy components. In such cases, a condition monitoring system focusing on a specific element in a connected set of components may either incorrectly indicate a fault, or conversely, a fault might be missed or masked due to the interaction of a piece of equipment with neighboring machines. In such cases, a more holistic condition monitoring approach that can not only account for such interactions, but utilize them to provide a more complete and definitive diagnostic picture of the health of the machinery is highly desirable. In this paper, a Two-Stage Bayesian Inference approach allowing data from separate condition monitoring systems to be combined is presented. Data from distributed condition monitoring systems are combined in two stages, the first data fusion occurring at a local, or component, level, and the second fusion combining data at a global level. Data obtained from an experimental rig consisting of an electric motor, two gearboxes, and a load, operating under a range of different fault conditions is used to illustrate the efficacy of the method at pinpointing the root cause of a problem. The obtained results suggest that the approach is adept at refining the diagnostic information obtained from each of the different machine components monitored, therefore improving the reliability of the health assessment of each individual element, as well as the entire piece of machinery.

[Determination of wine original regions using information fusion of NIR and MIR spectroscopy].

PubMed

Xiang, Ling-Li; Li, Meng-Hua; Li, Jing-Mingz; Li, Jun-Hui; Zhang, Lu-Da; Zhao, Long-Lian

2014-10-01

Geographical origins of wine grapes are significant factors affecting wine quality and wine prices. Tasters' evaluation is a good method but has some limitations. It is important to discriminate different wine original regions quickly and accurately. The present paper proposed a method to determine wine original regions based on Bayesian information fusion that fused near-infrared (NIR) transmission spectra information and mid-infrared (MIR) ATR spectra information of wines. This method improved the determination results by expanding the sources of analysis information. NIR spectra and MIR spectra of 153 wine samples from four different regions of grape growing were collected by near-infrared and mid-infrared Fourier transform spe trometer separately. These four different regions are Huailai, Yantai, Gansu and Changli, which areall typical geographical originals for Chinese wines. NIR and MIR discriminant models for wine regions were established using partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) based on NIR spectra and MIR spectra separately. In PLS-DA, the regions of wine samples are presented in group of binary code. There are four wine regions in this paper, thereby using four nodes standing for categorical variables. The output nodes values for each sample in NIR and MIR models were normalized first. These values stand for the probabilities of each sample belonging to each category. They seemed as the input to the Bayesian discriminant formula as a priori probability value. The probabilities were substituteed into the Bayesian formula to get posterior probabilities, by which we can judge the new class characteristics of these samples. Considering the stability of PLS-DA models, all the wine samples were divided into calibration sets and validation sets randomly for ten times. The results of NIR and MIR discriminant models of four wine regions were as follows: the average accuracy rates of calibration sets were 78.21% (NIR) and 82.57% (MIR), and the average accuracy rates of validation sets were 82.50% (NIR) and 81.98% (MIR). After using the method proposed in this paper, the accuracy rates of calibration and validation changed to 87.11% and 90.87% separately, which all achieved better results of determination than individual spectroscopy. These results suggest that Bayesian information fusion of NIR and MIR spectra is feasible for fast identification of wine original regions.

A testbed for architecture and fidelity trade studies in the Bayesian decision-level fusion of ATR products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Kyle J.; Ross, Timothy D.

2007-04-01

Decision-level fusion is an appealing extension to automatic/assisted target recognition (ATR) as it is a low-bandwidth technique bolstered by a strong theoretical foundation that requires no modification of the source algorithms. Despite the relative simplicity of decision-level fusion, there are many options for fusion application and fusion algorithm specifications. This paper describes a tool that allows trade studies and optimizations across these many options, by feeding an actual fusion algorithm via models of the system environment. Models and fusion algorithms can be specified and then exercised many times, with accumulated results used to compute performance metrics such as probability of correct identification. Performance differences between the best of the contributing sources and the fused result constitute examples of "gain." The tool, constructed as part of the Fusion for Identifying Targets Experiment (FITE) within the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Sensors Directorate ATR Thrust, finds its main use in examining the relationships among conditions affecting the target, prior information, fusion algorithm complexity, and fusion gain. ATR as an unsolved problem provides the main challenges to fusion in its high cost and relative scarcity of training data, its variability in application, the inability to produce truly random samples, and its sensitivity to context. This paper summarizes the mathematics underlying decision-level fusion in the ATR domain and describes a MATLAB-based architecture for exploring the trade space thus defined. Specific dimensions within this trade space are delineated, providing the raw material necessary to define experiments suitable for multi-look and multi-sensor ATR systems.

Sensor fusion methods for reducing false alarms in heart rate monitoring.

PubMed

Borges, Gabriel; Brusamarello, Valner

2016-12-01

Automatic patient monitoring is an essential resource in hospitals for good health care management. While alarms caused by abnormal physiological conditions are important for the delivery of fast treatment, they can be also a source of unnecessary noise because of false alarms caused by electromagnetic interference or motion artifacts. One significant source of false alarms is related to heart rate, which is triggered when the heart rhythm of the patient is too fast or too slow. In this work, the fusion of different physiological sensors is explored in order to create a robust heart rate estimation. A set of algorithms using heart rate variability index, Bayesian inference, neural networks, fuzzy logic and majority voting is proposed to fuse the information from the electrocardiogram, arterial blood pressure and photoplethysmogram. Three kinds of information are extracted from each source, namely, heart rate variability, the heart rate difference between sensors and the spectral analysis of low and high noise of each sensor. This information is used as input to the algorithms. Twenty recordings selected from the MIMIC database were used to validate the system. The results showed that neural networks fusion had the best false alarm reduction of 92.5 %, while the Bayesian technique had a reduction of 84.3 %, fuzzy logic 80.6 %, majority voter 72.5 % and the heart rate variability index 67.5 %. Therefore, the proposed algorithms showed good performance and could be useful in bedside monitors.

Active inference and cognitive-emotional interactions in the brain.

PubMed

Pezzulo, Giovanni; Barca, Laura; Friston, Karl J

2015-01-01

All organisms must integrate cognition, emotion, and motivation to guide action toward valuable (goal) states, as described by active inference. Within this framework, cognition, emotion, and motivation interact through the (Bayesian) fusion of exteroceptive, proprioceptive, and interoceptive signals, the precision-weighting of prediction errors, and the "affective tuning" of neuronal representations. Crucially, misregulation of these processes may have profound psychopathological consequences.

Joint modality fusion and temporal context exploitation for semantic video analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Georgios Th; Mezaris, Vasileios; Kompatsiaris, Ioannis; Strintzis, Michael G.

2011-12-01

In this paper, a multi-modal context-aware approach to semantic video analysis is presented. Overall, the examined video sequence is initially segmented into shots and for every resulting shot appropriate color, motion and audio features are extracted. Then, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are employed for performing an initial association of each shot with the semantic classes that are of interest separately for each modality. Subsequently, a graphical modeling-based approach is proposed for jointly performing modality fusion and temporal context exploitation. Novelties of this work include the combined use of contextual information and multi-modal fusion, and the development of a new representation for providing motion distribution information to HMMs. Specifically, an integrated Bayesian Network is introduced for simultaneously performing information fusion of the individual modality analysis results and exploitation of temporal context, contrary to the usual practice of performing each task separately. Contextual information is in the form of temporal relations among the supported classes. Additionally, a new computationally efficient method for providing motion energy distribution-related information to HMMs, which supports the incorporation of motion characteristics from previous frames to the currently examined one, is presented. The final outcome of this overall video analysis framework is the association of a semantic class with every shot. Experimental results as well as comparative evaluation from the application of the proposed approach to four datasets belonging to the domains of tennis, news and volleyball broadcast video are presented.

Assessment of Cropping System Diversity in the Fergana Valley Through Image Fusion of Landsat 8 and SENTINEL-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimov, D.; Kuhn, J.; Conrad, C.

2016-06-01

In the transitioning agricultural societies of the world, food security is an essential element of livelihood and economic development with the agricultural sector very often being the major employment factor and income source. Rapid population growth, urbanization, pollution, desertification, soil degradation and climate change pose a variety of threats to a sustainable agricultural development and can be expressed as agricultural vulnerability components. Diverse cropping patterns may help to adapt the agricultural systems to those hazards in terms of increasing the potential yield and resilience to water scarcity. Thus, the quantification of crop diversity using indices like the Simpson Index of Diversity (SID) e.g. through freely available remote sensing data becomes a very important issue. This however requires accurate land use classifications. In this study, the focus is set on the cropping system diversity of garden plots, summer crop fields and orchard plots which are the prevalent agricultural systems in the test area of the Fergana Valley in Uzbekistan. In order to improve the accuracy of land use classification algorithms with low or medium resolution data, a novel processing chain through the hitherto unique fusion of optical and SAR data from the Landsat 8 and Sentinel-1 platforms is proposed. The combination of both sensors is intended to enhance the object's textural and spectral signature rather than just to enhance the spatial context through pansharpening. It could be concluded that the Ehlers fusion algorithm gave the most suitable results. Based on the derived image fusion different object-based image classification algorithms such as SVM, Naïve Bayesian and Random Forest were evaluated whereby the latter one achieved the highest classification accuracy. Subsequently, the SID was applied to measure the diversification of the three main cropping systems.

Decentralized cooperative TOA/AOA target tracking for hierarchical wireless sensor networks.

PubMed

Chen, Ying-Chih; Wen, Chih-Yu

2012-11-08

This paper proposes a distributed method for cooperative target tracking in hierarchical wireless sensor networks. The concept of leader-based information processing is conducted to achieve object positioning, considering a cluster-based network topology. Random timers and local information are applied to adaptively select a sub-cluster for the localization task. The proposed energy-efficient tracking algorithm allows each sub-cluster member to locally estimate the target position with a Bayesian filtering framework and a neural networking model, and further performs estimation fusion in the leader node with the covariance intersection algorithm. This paper evaluates the merits and trade-offs of the protocol design towards developing more efficient and practical algorithms for object position estimation.

Feasibility study of direct spectra measurements for Thomson scattered signals for KSTAR fusion-grade plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, K.-R.; Kim, K.-h.; Kwak, S.; Svensson, J.; Lee, J.; Ghim, Y.-c.

2017-11-01

Feasibility study of direct spectra measurements of Thomson scattered photons for fusion-grade plasmas is performed based on a forward model of the KSTAR Thomson scattering system. Expected spectra in the forward model are calculated based on Selden function including the relativistic polarization correction. Noise in the signal is modeled with photon noise and Gaussian electrical noise. Electron temperature and density are inferred using Bayesian probability theory. Based on bias error, full width at half maximum and entropy of posterior distributions, spectral measurements are found to be feasible. Comparisons between spectrometer-based and polychromator-based Thomson scattering systems are performed with varying quantum efficiency and electrical noise levels.

European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT) availability stochastic model: integrating failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), influence diagram, and Bayesian network together

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verzichelli, Gianluca

2016-08-01

An Availability Stochastic Model for the E-ELT has been developed in GeNIE. The latter is a Graphical User Interface (GUI) for the Structural Modeling, Inference, and Learning Engine (SMILE), originally distributed by the Decision Systems Laboratory from the University of Pittsburgh, and now being a product of Bayes Fusion, LLC. The E-ELT will be the largest optical/near-infrared telescope in the world. Its design comprises an Alt-Azimuth mount reflecting telescope with a 39-metre-diameter segmented primary mirror, a 4-metre-diameter secondary mirror, a 3.75-metre-diameter tertiary mirror, adaptive optics and multiple instruments. This paper highlights how a Model has been developed for an earlier on assessment of the Telescope Avail- ability. It also describes the modular structure and the underlying assumptions that have been adopted for developing the model and demonstrates the integration of FMEA, Influence Diagram and Bayesian Network elements. These have been considered for a better characterization of the Model inputs and outputs and for taking into account Degraded-based Reliability (DBR). Lastly, it provides an overview of how the information and knowledge captured in the model may be used for an earlier on definition of the Failure, Detection, Isolation and Recovery (FDIR) Control Strategy and the Telescope Minimum Master Equipment List (T-MMEL).

Case retrieval in medical databases by fusing heterogeneous information.

PubMed

Quellec, Gwénolé; Lamard, Mathieu; Cazuguel, Guy; Roux, Christian; Cochener, Béatrice

2011-01-01

A novel content-based heterogeneous information retrieval framework, particularly well suited to browse medical databases and support new generation computer aided diagnosis (CADx) systems, is presented in this paper. It was designed to retrieve possibly incomplete documents, consisting of several images and semantic information, from a database; more complex data types such as videos can also be included in the framework. The proposed retrieval method relies on image processing, in order to characterize each individual image in a document by their digital content, and information fusion. Once the available images in a query document are characterized, a degree of match, between the query document and each reference document stored in the database, is defined for each attribute (an image feature or a metadata). A Bayesian network is used to recover missing information if need be. Finally, two novel information fusion methods are proposed to combine these degrees of match, in order to rank the reference documents by decreasing relevance for the query. In the first method, the degrees of match are fused by the Bayesian network itself. In the second method, they are fused by the Dezert-Smarandache theory: the second approach lets us model our confidence in each source of information (i.e., each attribute) and take it into account in the fusion process for a better retrieval performance. The proposed methods were applied to two heterogeneous medical databases, a diabetic retinopathy database and a mammography screening database, for computer aided diagnosis. Precisions at five of 0.809 ± 0.158 and 0.821 ± 0.177, respectively, were obtained for these two databases, which is very promising.

Spatiotemporal fusion of multiple-satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products using Bayesian maximum entropy method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Qingxin; Bo, Yanchen; Zhu, Yuxin

2016-04-01

Merging multisensor aerosol optical depth (AOD) products is an effective way to produce more spatiotemporally complete and accurate AOD products. A spatiotemporal statistical data fusion framework based on a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method was developed for merging satellite AOD products in East Asia. The advantages of the presented merging framework are that it not only utilizes the spatiotemporal autocorrelations but also explicitly incorporates the uncertainties of the AOD products being merged. The satellite AOD products used for merging are the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5.1 Level-2 AOD products (MOD04_L2) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Deep Blue Level 2 AOD products (SWDB_L2). The results show that the average completeness of the merged AOD data is 95.2%,which is significantly superior to the completeness of MOD04_L2 (22.9%) and SWDB_L2 (20.2%). By comparing the merged AOD to the Aerosol Robotic Network AOD records, the results show that the correlation coefficient (0.75), root-mean-square error (0.29), and mean bias (0.068) of the merged AOD are close to those (the correlation coefficient (0.82), root-mean-square error (0.19), and mean bias (0.059)) of the MODIS AOD. In the regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS have valid observations, the accuracy of the merged AOD is higher than those of MODIS and SeaWiFS AODs. Even in regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS AODs are missing, the accuracy of the merged AOD is also close to the accuracy of the regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS have valid observations.

The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yifei

2018-03-01

Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

A fast combination method in DSmT and its application to recommender system

PubMed Central

Liu, Yihai

2018-01-01

In many applications involving epistemic uncertainties usually modeled by belief functions, it is often necessary to approximate general (non-Bayesian) basic belief assignments (BBAs) to subjective probabilities (called Bayesian BBAs). This necessity occurs if one needs to embed the fusion result in a system based on the probabilistic framework and Bayesian inference (e.g. tracking systems), or if one needs to make a decision in the decision making problems. In this paper, we present a new fast combination method, called modified rigid coarsening (MRC), to obtain the final Bayesian BBAs based on hierarchical decomposition (coarsening) of the frame of discernment. Regarding this method, focal elements with probabilities are coarsened efficiently to reduce computational complexity in the process of combination by using disagreement vector and a simple dichotomous approach. In order to prove the practicality of our approach, this new approach is applied to combine users’ soft preferences in recommender systems (RSs). Additionally, in order to make a comprehensive performance comparison, the proportional conflict redistribution rule #6 (PCR6) is regarded as a baseline in a range of experiments. According to the results of experiments, MRC is more effective in accuracy of recommendations compared to original Rigid Coarsening (RC) method and comparable in computational time. PMID:29351297

Multi-Objective data analysis using Bayesian Inference for MagLIF experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Patrick; Glinksy, Michael; Evans, Matthew; Gom, Matth; Han, Stephanie; Harding, Eric; Slutz, Steve; Hahn, Kelly; Harvey-Thompson, Adam; Geissel, Matthias; Ampleford, David; Jennings, Christopher; Schmit, Paul; Smith, Ian; Schwarz, Jens; Peterson, Kyle; Jones, Brent; Rochau, Gregory; Sinars, Daniel

2017-10-01

The MagLIF concept has recently demonstrated Gbar pressures and confinement of charged fusion products at stagnation. We present a new analysis methodology that allows for integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power to determine the temperature, pressure, liner areal density, and mix fraction. A simplified hot-spot model is used with a Bayesian inference network to determine the most probable model parameters that describe the observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

Semiparametric regression during 2003–2007*

PubMed Central

Ruppert, David; Wand, M.P.; Carroll, Raymond J.

2010-01-01

Semiparametric regression is a fusion between parametric regression and nonparametric regression that integrates low-rank penalized splines, mixed model and hierarchical Bayesian methodology – thus allowing more streamlined handling of longitudinal and spatial correlation. We review progress in the field over the five-year period between 2003 and 2007. We find semiparametric regression to be a vibrant field with substantial involvement and activity, continual enhancement and widespread application. PMID:20305800

Brain-computer interface with language model-electroencephalography fusion for locked-in syndrome.

PubMed

Oken, Barry S; Orhan, Umut; Roark, Brian; Erdogmus, Deniz; Fowler, Andrew; Mooney, Aimee; Peters, Betts; Miller, Meghan; Fried-Oken, Melanie B

2014-05-01

Some noninvasive brain-computer interface (BCI) systems are currently available for locked-in syndrome (LIS) but none have incorporated a statistical language model during text generation. To begin to address the communication needs of individuals with LIS using a noninvasive BCI that involves rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of symbols and a unique classifier with electroencephalography (EEG) and language model fusion. The RSVP Keyboard was developed with several unique features. Individual letters are presented at 2.5 per second. Computer classification of letters as targets or nontargets based on EEG is performed using machine learning that incorporates a language model for letter prediction via Bayesian fusion enabling targets to be presented only 1 to 4 times. Nine participants with LIS and 9 healthy controls were enrolled. After screening, subjects first calibrated the system, and then completed a series of balanced word generation mastery tasks that were designed with 5 incremental levels of difficulty, which increased by selecting phrases for which the utility of the language model decreased naturally. Six participants with LIS and 9 controls completed the experiment. All LIS participants successfully mastered spelling at level 1 and one subject achieved level 5. Six of 9 control participants achieved level 5. Individuals who have incomplete LIS may benefit from an EEG-based BCI system, which relies on EEG classification and a statistical language model. Steps to further improve the system are discussed.

Model inversion via multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization: a new paradigm for parameter estimation in haemodynamics, and beyond.

PubMed

Perdikaris, Paris; Karniadakis, George Em

2016-05-01

We present a computational framework for model inversion based on multi-fidelity information fusion and Bayesian optimization. The proposed methodology targets the accurate construction of response surfaces in parameter space, and the efficient pursuit to identify global optima while keeping the number of expensive function evaluations at a minimum. We train families of correlated surrogates on available data using Gaussian processes and auto-regressive stochastic schemes, and exploit the resulting predictive posterior distributions within a Bayesian optimization setting. This enables a smart adaptive sampling procedure that uses the predictive posterior variance to balance the exploration versus exploitation trade-off, and is a key enabler for practical computations under limited budgets. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on three parameter estimation problems. The first two involve the calibration of outflow boundary conditions of blood flow simulations in arterial bifurcations using multi-fidelity realizations of one- and three-dimensional models, whereas the last one aims to identify the forcing term that generated a particular solution to an elliptic partial differential equation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Model inversion via multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization: a new paradigm for parameter estimation in haemodynamics, and beyond

PubMed Central

Perdikaris, Paris; Karniadakis, George Em

2016-01-01

We present a computational framework for model inversion based on multi-fidelity information fusion and Bayesian optimization. The proposed methodology targets the accurate construction of response surfaces in parameter space, and the efficient pursuit to identify global optima while keeping the number of expensive function evaluations at a minimum. We train families of correlated surrogates on available data using Gaussian processes and auto-regressive stochastic schemes, and exploit the resulting predictive posterior distributions within a Bayesian optimization setting. This enables a smart adaptive sampling procedure that uses the predictive posterior variance to balance the exploration versus exploitation trade-off, and is a key enabler for practical computations under limited budgets. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on three parameter estimation problems. The first two involve the calibration of outflow boundary conditions of blood flow simulations in arterial bifurcations using multi-fidelity realizations of one- and three-dimensional models, whereas the last one aims to identify the forcing term that generated a particular solution to an elliptic partial differential equation. PMID:27194481

A label field fusion bayesian model and its penalized maximum rand estimator for image segmentation.

PubMed

Mignotte, Max

2010-06-01

This paper presents a novel segmentation approach based on a Markov random field (MRF) fusion model which aims at combining several segmentation results associated with simpler clustering models in order to achieve a more reliable and accurate segmentation result. The proposed fusion model is derived from the recently introduced probabilistic Rand measure for comparing one segmentation result to one or more manual segmentations of the same image. This non-parametric measure allows us to easily derive an appealing fusion model of label fields, easily expressed as a Gibbs distribution, or as a nonstationary MRF model defined on a complete graph. Concretely, this Gibbs energy model encodes the set of binary constraints, in terms of pairs of pixel labels, provided by each segmentation results to be fused. Combined with a prior distribution, this energy-based Gibbs model also allows for definition of an interesting penalized maximum probabilistic rand estimator with which the fusion of simple, quickly estimated, segmentation results appears as an interesting alternative to complex segmentation models existing in the literature. This fusion framework has been successfully applied on the Berkeley image database. The experiments reported in this paper demonstrate that the proposed method is efficient in terms of visual evaluation and quantitative performance measures and performs well compared to the best existing state-of-the-art segmentation methods recently proposed in the literature.

Towards a Unified Approach to Information Integration - A review paper on data/information fusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitney, Paul D.; Posse, Christian; Lei, Xingye C.

2005-10-14

Information or data fusion of data from different sources are ubiquitous in many applications, from epidemiology, medical, biological, political, and intelligence to military applications. Data fusion involves integration of spectral, imaging, text, and many other sensor data. For example, in epidemiology, information is often obtained based on many studies conducted by different researchers at different regions with different protocols. In the medical field, the diagnosis of a disease is often based on imaging (MRI, X-Ray, CT), clinical examination, and lab results. In the biological field, information is obtained based on studies conducted on many different species. In military field, informationmore » is obtained based on data from radar sensors, text messages, chemical biological sensor, acoustic sensor, optical warning and many other sources. Many methodologies are used in the data integration process, from classical, Bayesian, to evidence based expert systems. The implementation of the data integration ranges from pure software design to a mixture of software and hardware. In this review we summarize the methodologies and implementations of data fusion process, and illustrate in more detail the methodologies involved in three examples. We propose a unified multi-stage and multi-path mapping approach to the data fusion process, and point out future prospects and challenges.« less

The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

PubMed

Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

2014-01-01

Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Handheld Synthetic Array Final Report, Part B

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

Multiple Model IMU Inertial Measurement Unit 4/154 IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers KF Kalman Filter KL Kullback - Leibler LAMBDA...important metric in information theory is the input–output mutual information (MI) that is used as an indicator of how much coded information can be...tracking using best- fitting Gaussian distributions,” Proc. Int. Conf. Inform . Fusion, pp. 1–8, 2005. [liv] L. Svensson, “On the Bayesian Cramér-Rao

Label fusion based brain MR image segmentation via a latent selective model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Gang; Guo, Xiantang; Zhu, Kai; Liao, Hengxu

2018-04-01

Multi-atlas segmentation is an effective approach and increasingly popular for automatically labeling objects of interest in medical images. Recently, segmentation methods based on generative models and patch-based techniques have become the two principal branches of label fusion. However, these generative models and patch-based techniques are only loosely related, and the requirement for higher accuracy, faster segmentation, and robustness is always a great challenge. In this paper, we propose novel algorithm that combines the two branches using global weighted fusion strategy based on a patch latent selective model to perform segmentation of specific anatomical structures for human brain magnetic resonance (MR) images. In establishing this probabilistic model of label fusion between the target patch and patch dictionary, we explored the Kronecker delta function in the label prior, which is more suitable than other models, and designed a latent selective model as a membership prior to determine from which training patch the intensity and label of the target patch are generated at each spatial location. Because the image background is an equally important factor for segmentation, it is analyzed in label fusion procedure and we regard it as an isolated label to keep the same privilege between the background and the regions of interest. During label fusion with the global weighted fusion scheme, we use Bayesian inference and expectation maximization algorithm to estimate the labels of the target scan to produce the segmentation map. Experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm is more accurate and robust than the other segmentation methods.

Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Shi; Lina, Xu; Yuzhu, Hao

2017-07-01

The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0-24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.

On estimating the accuracy of monitoring methods using Bayesian error propagation technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zonta, Daniele; Bruschetta, Federico; Cappello, Carlo; Zandonini, R.; Pozzi, Matteo; Wang, Ming; Glisic, B.; Inaudi, D.; Posenato, D.; Zhao, Y.

2014-04-01

This paper illustrates an application of Bayesian logic to monitoring data analysis and structural condition state inference. The case study is a 260 m long cable-stayed bridge spanning the Adige River 10 km north of the town of Trento, Italy. This is a statically indeterminate structure, having a composite steel-concrete deck, supported by 12 stay cables. Structural redundancy, possible relaxation losses and an as-built condition differing from design, suggest that long-term load redistribution between cables can be expected. To monitor load redistribution, the owner decided to install a monitoring system which combines built-on-site elasto-magnetic and fiber-optic sensors. In this note, we discuss a rational way to improve the accuracy of the load estimate from the EM sensors taking advantage of the FOS information. More specifically, we use a multi-sensor Bayesian data fusion approach which combines the information from the two sensing systems with the prior knowledge, including design information and the outcomes of laboratory calibration. Using the data acquired to date, we demonstrate that combining the two measurements allows a more accurate estimate of the cable load, to better than 50 kN.

Judd-Ofelt Parameters via Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Valdeir A.; Silva, José W.; de Morais, Paulo C.; Dantas, Noelio O.

2018-04-01

Bayesian inference was used as a new approach to calculate of rare earth (RE) ion spectroscopic parameters within the Judd-Ofelt theory using the Li2O-B2O3-Al2O3 glass system doped with Nd2O3 and TiO2. This system was synthesized by the fusion method, and the physical properties of the as-synthesized material were investigated. Optical absorption, photoluminescence, micro-Raman, mass density, refractive index, and radiative lifetime calcuations were performed. We investigated the effects of crystal field changes on Nd3+-ions caused due to co-doping with increasing TiO2 content. We observed that co-doping with TiO2 altered the radiative transition rates A( J, J '), favored symmetry enhancement around the Nd3+-ions, and promoted the onset of vibrational modes, contributed to the attenuation of O-H bonds, and substantially increased the spectroscopic quality, χ.

Experience With Bayesian Image Based Surface Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stutz, John C.

2005-01-01

Bayesian surface modeling from images requires modeling both the surface and the image generation process, in order to optimize the models by comparing actual and generated images. Thus it differs greatly, both conceptually and in computational difficulty, from conventional stereo surface recovery techniques. But it offers the possibility of using any number of images, taken under quite different conditions, and by different instruments that provide independent and often complementary information, to generate a single surface model that fuses all available information. I describe an implemented system, with a brief introduction to the underlying mathematical models and the compromises made for computational efficiency. I describe successes and failures achieved on actual imagery, where we went wrong and what we did right, and how our approach could be improved. Lastly I discuss how the same approach can be extended to distinct types of instruments, to achieve true sensor fusion.

TANDI: threat assessment of network data and information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holsopple, Jared; Yang, Shanchieh Jay; Sudit, Moises

2006-04-01

Current practice for combating cyber attacks typically use Intrusion Detection Sensors (IDSs) to passively detect and block multi-stage attacks. This work leverages Level-2 fusion that correlates IDS alerts belonging to the same attacker, and proposes a threat assessment algorithm to predict potential future attacker actions. The algorithm, TANDI, reduces the problem complexity by separating the models of the attacker's capability and opportunity, and fuse the two to determine the attacker's intent. Unlike traditional Bayesian-based approaches, which require assigning a large number of edge probabilities, the proposed Level-3 fusion procedure uses only 4 parameters. TANDI has been implemented and tested with randomly created attack sequences. The results demonstrate that TANDI predicts future attack actions accurately as long as the attack is not part of a coordinated attack and contains no insider threats. In the presence of abnormal attack events, TANDI will alarm the network analyst for further analysis. The attempt to evaluate a threat assessment algorithm via simulation is the first in the literature, and shall open up a new avenue in the area of high level fusion.

Joint Facial Action Unit Detection and Feature Fusion: A Multi-conditional Learning Approach.

PubMed

Eleftheriadis, Stefanos; Rudovic, Ognjen; Pantic, Maja

2016-10-05

Automated analysis of facial expressions can benefit many domains, from marketing to clinical diagnosis of neurodevelopmental disorders. Facial expressions are typically encoded as a combination of facial muscle activations, i.e., action units. Depending on context, these action units co-occur in specific patterns, and rarely in isolation. Yet, most existing methods for automatic action unit detection fail to exploit dependencies among them, and the corresponding facial features. To address this, we propose a novel multi-conditional latent variable model for simultaneous fusion of facial features and joint action unit detection. Specifically, the proposed model performs feature fusion in a generative fashion via a low-dimensional shared subspace, while simultaneously performing action unit detection using a discriminative classification approach. We show that by combining the merits of both approaches, the proposed methodology outperforms existing purely discriminative/generative methods for the target task. To reduce the number of parameters, and avoid overfitting, a novel Bayesian learning approach based on Monte Carlo sampling is proposed, to integrate out the shared subspace. We validate the proposed method on posed and spontaneous data from three publicly available datasets (CK+, DISFA and Shoulder-pain), and show that both feature fusion and joint learning of action units leads to improved performance compared to the state-of-the-art methods for the task.

An AI-based communication system for motor and speech disabled persons: design methodology and prototype testing.

PubMed

Sy, B K; Deller, J R

1989-05-01

An intelligent communication device is developed to assist the nonverbal, motor disabled in the generation of written and spoken messages. The device is centered on a knowledge base of the grammatical rules and message elements. A "belief" reasoning scheme based on both the information from external sources and the embedded knowledge is used to optimize the process of message search. The search for the message elements is conceptualized as a path search in the language graph, and a special frame architecture is used to construct and to partition the graph. Bayesian "belief" reasoning from the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is augmented to cope with time-varying evidence. An "information fusion" strategy is also introduced to integrate various forms of external information. Experimental testing of the prototype system is discussed.

Real-time threat assessment for critical infrastructure protection: data incest and conflict in evidential reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandon, R.; Page, S.; Varndell, J.

2012-06-01

This paper presents a novel application of Evidential Reasoning to Threat Assessment for critical infrastructure protection. A fusion algorithm based on the PCR5 Dezert-Smarandache fusion rule is proposed which fuses alerts generated by a vision-based behaviour analysis algorithm and a-priori watch-list intelligence data. The fusion algorithm produces a prioritised event list according to a user-defined set of event-type severity or priority weightings. Results generated from application of the algorithm to real data and Behaviour Analysis alerts captured at London's Heathrow Airport under the EU FP7 SAMURAI programme are presented. A web-based demonstrator system is also described which implements the fusion process in real-time. It is shown that this system significantly reduces the data deluge problem, and directs the user's attention to the most pertinent alerts, enhancing their Situational Awareness (SA). The end-user is also able to alter the perceived importance of different event types in real-time, allowing the system to adapt rapidly to changes in priorities as the situation evolves. One of the key challenges associated with fusing information deriving from intelligence data is the issue of Data Incest. Techniques for handling Data Incest within Evidential Reasoning frameworks are proposed, and comparisons are drawn with respect to Data Incest management techniques that are commonly employed within Bayesian fusion frameworks (e.g. Covariance Intersection). The challenges associated with simultaneously dealing with conflicting information and Data Incest in Evidential Reasoning frameworks are also discussed.

An adaptive Bayesian inference algorithm to estimate the parameters of a hazardous atmospheric release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaona, Harizo; Septier, François; Armand, Patrick; Delignon, Yves; Olry, Christophe; Albergel, Armand; Moussafir, Jacques

2015-12-01

In the eventuality of an accidental or intentional atmospheric release, the reconstruction of the source term using measurements from a set of sensors is an important and challenging inverse problem. A rapid and accurate estimation of the source allows faster and more efficient action for first-response teams, in addition to providing better damage assessment. This paper presents a Bayesian probabilistic approach to estimate the location and the temporal emission profile of a pointwise source. The release rate is evaluated analytically by using a Gaussian assumption on its prior distribution, and is enhanced with a positivity constraint to improve the estimation. The source location is obtained by the means of an advanced iterative Monte-Carlo technique called Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling (AMIS), which uses a recycling process at each iteration to accelerate its convergence. The proposed methodology is tested using synthetic and real concentration data in the framework of the Fusion Field Trials 2007 (FFT-07) experiment. The quality of the obtained results is comparable to those coming from the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a popular Bayesian method used for source estimation. Moreover, the adaptive processing of the AMIS provides a better sampling efficiency by reusing all the generated samples.

JET DT Scenario Extrapolation and Optimization with METIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, Jakub; Jaulmes, Fabien; Artaud, Jean-Francois

2017-10-01

Prospective JET (Joint European Torus) DT operation scenarios are modelled by the fast integrated code METIS. METIS combines scaling laws, e.g. for global and pedestal energy or density peaking, with simplified transport and source models, while retaining fundamental nonlinear couplings, in particular in the fusion power. We have tuned METIS parameters to match JET-ILW high performance experiments, including baseline and hybrid. Based on recent observations, we assume a weaker input power scaling than IPB98 and a 10% confinement improvement due to the higher ion mass. The rapidity of METIS is utilized to scan the performance of JET DT scenarios with respect to fundamental parameters, such as plasma current, magnetic field, density or heating power. Simplified, easily parameterized waveforms are used to study the effect the ramp-up speed or heating timing. Finally, an efficient Bayesian optimizer is employed to seek the most performant scenarios in terms of the fusion power or gain.

Massive NGS Data Analysis Reveals Hundreds Of Potential Novel Gene Fusions in Human Cell Lines.

PubMed

Gioiosa, Silvia; Bolis, Marco; Flati, Tiziano; Massini, Annalisa; Garattini, Enrico; Chillemi, Giovanni; Fratelli, Maddalena; Castrignanò, Tiziana

2018-06-01

Gene fusions derive from chromosomal rearrangements and the resulting chimeric transcripts are often endowed with oncogenic potential. Furthermore, they serve as diagnostic tools for the clinical classification of cancer subgroups with different prognosis and, in some cases, they can provide specific drug targets. So far, many efforts have been carried out to study gene fusion events occurring in tumor samples. In recent years, the availability of a comprehensive Next Generation Sequencing dataset for all the existing human tumor cell lines has provided the opportunity to further investigate these data in order to identify novel and still uncharacterized gene fusion events. In our work, we have extensively reanalyzed 935 paired-end RNA-seq experiments downloaded from "The Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia" repository, aiming at addressing novel putative cell-line specific gene fusion events in human malignancies. The bioinformatics analysis has been performed by the execution of four different gene fusion detection algorithms. The results have been further prioritized by running a bayesian classifier which makes an in silico validation. The collection of fusion events supported by all of the predictive softwares results in a robust set of ∼ 1,700 in-silico predicted novel candidates suitable for downstream analyses. Given the huge amount of data and information produced, computational results have been systematized in a database named LiGeA. The database can be browsed through a dynamical and interactive web portal, further integrated with validated data from other well known repositories. Taking advantage of the intuitive query forms, the users can easily access, navigate, filter and select the putative gene fusions for further validations and studies. They can also find suitable experimental models for a given fusion of interest. We believe that the LiGeA resource can represent not only the first compendium of both known and putative novel gene fusion events in the catalog of all of the human malignant cell lines, but it can also become a handy starting point for wet-lab biologists who wish to investigate novel cancer biomarkers and specific drug targets.

Bayesian Fusion of Color and Texture Segmentations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manduchi, Roberto

2000-01-01

In many applications one would like to use information from both color and texture features in order to segment an image. We propose a novel technique to combine "soft" segmentations computed for two or more features independently. Our algorithm merges models according to a mean entropy criterion, and allows to choose the appropriate number of classes for the final grouping. This technique also allows to improve the quality of supervised classification based on one feature (e.g. color) by merging information from unsupervised segmentation based on another feature (e.g., texture.)

Evidence cross-validation and Bayesian inference of MAST plasma equilibria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nessi, G. T. von; Hole, M. J.; Svensson, J.

2012-01-15

In this paper, current profiles for plasma discharges on the mega-ampere spherical tokamak are directly calculated from pickup coil, flux loop, and motional-Stark effect observations via methods based in the statistical theory of Bayesian analysis. By representing toroidal plasma current as a series of axisymmetric current beams with rectangular cross-section and inferring the current for each one of these beams, flux-surface geometry and q-profiles are subsequently calculated by elementary application of Biot-Savart's law. The use of this plasma model in the context of Bayesian analysis was pioneered by Svensson and Werner on the joint-European tokamak [Svensson and Werner,Plasma Phys. Controlledmore » Fusion 50(8), 085002 (2008)]. In this framework, linear forward models are used to generate diagnostic predictions, and the probability distribution for the currents in the collection of plasma beams was subsequently calculated directly via application of Bayes' formula. In this work, we introduce a new diagnostic technique to identify and remove outlier observations associated with diagnostics falling out of calibration or suffering from an unidentified malfunction. These modifications enable a good agreement between Bayesian inference of the last-closed flux-surface with other corroborating data, such as that from force balance considerations using EFIT++[Appel et al., ''A unified approach to equilibrium reconstruction'' Proceedings of the 33rd EPS Conference on Plasma Physics (Rome, Italy, 2006)]. In addition, this analysis also yields errors on the plasma current profile and flux-surface geometry as well as directly predicting the Shafranov shift of the plasma core.« less

Merging daily sea surface temperature data from multiple satellites using a Bayesian maximum entropy method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Shaolei; Yang, Xiaofeng; Dong, Di; Li, Ziwei

2015-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important variable for understanding interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. SST fusion is crucial for acquiring SST products of high spatial resolution and coverage. This study introduces a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method for blending daily SSTs from multiple satellite sensors. A new spatiotemporal covariance model of an SST field is built to integrate not only single-day SSTs but also time-adjacent SSTs. In addition, AVHRR 30-year SST climatology data are introduced as soft data at the estimation points to improve the accuracy of blended results within the BME framework. The merged SSTs, with a spatial resolution of 4 km and a temporal resolution of 24 hours, are produced in the Western Pacific Ocean region to demonstrate and evaluate the proposed methodology. Comparisons with in situ drifting buoy observations show that the merged SSTs are accurate and the bias and root-mean-square errors for the comparison are 0.15°C and 0.72°C, respectively.

The Bayesian Revolution Approaches Psychological Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shultz, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

This commentary reviews five articles that apply Bayesian ideas to psychological development, some with psychology experiments, some with computational modeling, and some with both experiments and modeling. The reviewed work extends the current Bayesian revolution into tasks often studied in children, such as causal learning and word learning, and…

A mathematical model approach toward combining information from multiple image projections of the same patient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chawla, Amarpreet S.; Samei, Ehsan; Abbey, Craig

2007-03-01

In this study, we used a mathematical observer model to combine information obtained from multiple angular projections of the same breast to determine the overall detection performance of a multi-projection breast imaging system in detectability of a simulated mass. 82 subjects participated in the study and 25 angular projections of each breast were acquired. Projections from a simulated 3 mm 3-D lesion were added to the projection images. The lesion was assumed to be embedded in the compressed breast at a distance of 3 cm from the detector. Hotelling observer with Laguerre-Gauss channels (LG CHO) was applied to each image. Detectability was analyzed in terms of ROC curves and the area under ROC curves (AUC). The critical question studied is how to best integrate the individual decision variables across multiple (correlated) views. Towards that end, three different methods were investigated. Specifically, 1) ROCs from different projections were simply averaged; 2) the test statistics from different projections were averaged; and 3) a Bayesian decision fusion rule was used. Finally, AUC of the combined ROC was used as a parameter to optimize the acquisition parameters to maximize the performance of the system. It was found that the Bayesian decision fusion technique performs better than the other two techniques and likely offers the best approximation of the diagnostic process. Furthermore, if the total dose level is held constant at 1/25th of dual-view mammographic screening dose, the highest detectability performance is observed when considering only two projections spread along an angular span of 11.4°.

Comparison of Models for the Prediction of Medical Costs of Spinal Fusion in Taiwan Diagnosis-Related Groups by Machine Learning Algorithms.

PubMed

Kuo, Ching-Yen; Yu, Liang-Chin; Chen, Hou-Chaung; Chan, Chien-Lung

2018-01-01

The aims of this study were to compare the performance of machine learning methods for the prediction of the medical costs associated with spinal fusion in terms of profit or loss in Taiwan Diagnosis-Related Groups (Tw-DRGs) and to apply these methods to explore the important factors associated with the medical costs of spinal fusion. A data set was obtained from a regional hospital in Taoyuan city in Taiwan, which contained data from 2010 to 2013 on patients of Tw-DRG49702 (posterior and other spinal fusion without complications or comorbidities). Naïve-Bayesian, support vector machines, logistic regression, C4.5 decision tree, and random forest methods were employed for prediction using WEKA 3.8.1. Five hundred thirty-two cases were categorized as belonging to the Tw-DRG49702 group. The mean medical cost was US $4,549.7, and the mean age of the patients was 62.4 years. The mean length of stay was 9.3 days. The length of stay was an important variable in terms of determining medical costs for patients undergoing spinal fusion. The random forest method had the best predictive performance in comparison to the other methods, achieving an accuracy of 84.30%, a sensitivity of 71.4%, a specificity of 92.2%, and an AUC of 0.904. Our study demonstrated that the random forest model can be employed to predict the medical costs of Tw-DRG49702, and could inform hospital strategy in terms of increasing the financial management efficiency of this operation.

Multisensor fusion with non-optimal decision rules: the challenges of open world sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minor, Christian; Johnson, Kevin

2014-05-01

In this work, simple, generic models of chemical sensing are used to simulate sensor array data and to illustrate the impact on overall system performance that specific design choices impart. The ability of multisensor systems to perform multianalyte detection (i.e., distinguish multiple targets) is explored by examining the distinction between fundamental design-related limitations stemming from mismatching of mixture composition to fused sensor measurement spaces, and limitations that arise from measurement uncertainty. Insight on the limits and potential of sensor fusion to robustly address detection tasks in realistic field conditions can be gained through an examination of a) the underlying geometry of both the composition space of sources one hopes to elucidate and the measurement space a fused sensor system is capable of generating, and b) the informational impact of uncertainty on both of these spaces. For instance, what is the potential impact on sensor fusion in an open world scenario where unknown interferants may contaminate target signals? Under complex and dynamic backgrounds, decision rules may implicitly become non-optimal and adding sensors may increase the amount of conflicting information observed. This suggests that the manner in which a decision rule handles sensor conflict can be critical in leveraging sensor fusion for effective open world sensing, and becomes exponentially more important as more sensors are added. Results and design considerations for handling conflicting evidence in Bayes and Dempster-Shafer fusion frameworks are presented. Bayesian decision theory is used to provide an upper limit on detector performance of simulated sensor systems.

Spatio Temporal EEG Source Imaging with the Hierarchical Bayesian Elastic Net and Elitist Lasso Models

PubMed Central

Paz-Linares, Deirel; Vega-Hernández, Mayrim; Rojas-López, Pedro A.; Valdés-Hernández, Pedro A.; Martínez-Montes, Eduardo; Valdés-Sosa, Pedro A.

2017-01-01

The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods, Quality Measures and Visualization Routines are freely available in a public website. PMID:29200994

Spatio Temporal EEG Source Imaging with the Hierarchical Bayesian Elastic Net and Elitist Lasso Models.

PubMed

Paz-Linares, Deirel; Vega-Hernández, Mayrim; Rojas-López, Pedro A; Valdés-Hernández, Pedro A; Martínez-Montes, Eduardo; Valdés-Sosa, Pedro A

2017-01-01

The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods, Quality Measures and Visualization Routines are freely available in a public website.

An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

2014-03-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been developed and widely applied, but there is still room for improvements. Future research in the context of Bayesian flood forecasting should be on assimilation of various sources of newly available information and improvement of predictive performance assessment methods.

Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Approximate Bayesian Computation

PubMed Central

Lintusaari, Jarno; Gutmann, Michael U.; Dutta, Ritabrata; Kaski, Samuel; Corander, Jukka

2017-01-01

Abstract Bayesian inference plays an important role in phylogenetics, evolutionary biology, and in many other branches of science. It provides a principled framework for dealing with uncertainty and quantifying how it changes in the light of new evidence. For many complex models and inference problems, however, only approximate quantitative answers are obtainable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) refers to a family of algorithms for approximate inference that makes a minimal set of assumptions by only requiring that sampling from a model is possible. We explain here the fundamentals of ABC, review the classical algorithms, and highlight recent developments. [ABC; approximate Bayesian computation; Bayesian inference; likelihood-free inference; phylogenetics; simulator-based models; stochastic simulation models; tree-based models.] PMID:28175922

Estimation of white matter fiber parameters from compressed multiresolution diffusion MRI using sparse Bayesian learning.

PubMed

Pisharady, Pramod Kumar; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Duarte-Carvajalino, Julio M; Sapiro, Guillermo; Lenglet, Christophe

2018-02-15

We present a sparse Bayesian unmixing algorithm BusineX: Bayesian Unmixing for Sparse Inference-based Estimation of Fiber Crossings (X), for estimation of white matter fiber parameters from compressed (under-sampled) diffusion MRI (dMRI) data. BusineX combines compressive sensing with linear unmixing and introduces sparsity to the previously proposed multiresolution data fusion algorithm RubiX, resulting in a method for improved reconstruction, especially from data with lower number of diffusion gradients. We formulate the estimation of fiber parameters as a sparse signal recovery problem and propose a linear unmixing framework with sparse Bayesian learning for the recovery of sparse signals, the fiber orientations and volume fractions. The data is modeled using a parametric spherical deconvolution approach and represented using a dictionary created with the exponential decay components along different possible diffusion directions. Volume fractions of fibers along these directions define the dictionary weights. The proposed sparse inference, which is based on the dictionary representation, considers the sparsity of fiber populations and exploits the spatial redundancy in data representation, thereby facilitating inference from under-sampled q-space. The algorithm improves parameter estimation from dMRI through data-dependent local learning of hyperparameters, at each voxel and for each possible fiber orientation, that moderate the strength of priors governing the parameter variances. Experimental results on synthetic and in-vivo data show improved accuracy with a lower uncertainty in fiber parameter estimates. BusineX resolves a higher number of second and third fiber crossings. For under-sampled data, the algorithm is also shown to produce more reliable estimates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beat-to-beat heart rate estimation fusing multimodal video and sensor data

PubMed Central

Antink, Christoph Hoog; Gao, Hanno; Brüser, Christoph; Leonhardt, Steffen

2015-01-01

Coverage and accuracy of unobtrusively measured biosignals are generally relatively low compared to clinical modalities. This can be improved by exploiting redundancies in multiple channels with methods of sensor fusion. In this paper, we demonstrate that two modalities, skin color variation and head motion, can be extracted from the video stream recorded with a webcam. Using a Bayesian approach, these signals are fused with a ballistocardiographic signal obtained from the seat of a chair with a mean absolute beat-to-beat estimation error below 25 milliseconds and an average coverage above 90% compared to an ECG reference. PMID:26309754

Beat-to-beat heart rate estimation fusing multimodal video and sensor data.

PubMed

Antink, Christoph Hoog; Gao, Hanno; Brüser, Christoph; Leonhardt, Steffen

2015-08-01

Coverage and accuracy of unobtrusively measured biosignals are generally relatively low compared to clinical modalities. This can be improved by exploiting redundancies in multiple channels with methods of sensor fusion. In this paper, we demonstrate that two modalities, skin color variation and head motion, can be extracted from the video stream recorded with a webcam. Using a Bayesian approach, these signals are fused with a ballistocardiographic signal obtained from the seat of a chair with a mean absolute beat-to-beat estimation error below 25 milliseconds and an average coverage above 90% compared to an ECG reference.

A Discussion of Dempster-Shafer Theory and its Application to Identification Fusion

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

by m1,2 = m1 ⊕m2, is given by the following direct sum: (m1 ⊕m2)(X) = 1 (1− κ) ∑ Y ∩Z=X m1( Y )m2(Z), (1) where the conflict mass κ is given by κ = ∑ Y ...and some possible directions for future work are discussed. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER...believe Bayesian probability cannot, or at the very least is unable to do in an obvious and straight-forward manner. As an example, suppose that p (α1

The Psychology of Bayesian Reasoning

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-21

The psychology of Bayesian reasoning David R. Mandel* Socio-Cognitive Systems Section, Defence Research and Development Canada and Department...belief revision, subjective probability, human judgment, psychological methods. Most psychological research on Bayesian reasoning since the 1970s has...attention to some important problems with the conventional approach to studying Bayesian reasoning in psychology that has been dominant since the

A Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Models of Cognitive Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perfors, Amy; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.; Griffiths, Thomas L.; Xu, Fei

2011-01-01

We present an introduction to Bayesian inference as it is used in probabilistic models of cognitive development. Our goal is to provide an intuitive and accessible guide to the "what", the "how", and the "why" of the Bayesian approach: what sorts of problems and data the framework is most relevant for, and how and why it may be useful for…

Fuselets: an agent based architecture for fusion of heterogeneous information and data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyerer, Jürgen; Heizmann, Michael; Sander, Jennifer

2006-04-01

A new architecture for fusing information and data from heterogeneous sources is proposed. The approach takes criminalistics as a model. In analogy to the work of detectives, who attempt to investigate crimes, software agents are initiated that pursue clues and try to consolidate or to dismiss hypotheses. Like their human pendants, they can, if questions beyond their competences arise, consult expert agents. Within the context of a certain task, region, and time interval, specialized operations are applied to each relevant information source, e.g. IMINT, SIGINT, ACINT,..., HUMINT, data bases etc. in order to establish hit lists of first clues. Each clue is described by its pertaining facts, uncertainties, and dependencies in form of a local degree-of-belief (DoB) distribution in a Bayesian sense. For each clue an agent is initiated which cooperates with other agents and experts. Expert agents support to make use of different information sources. Consultations of experts, capable to access certain information sources, result in changes of the DoB of the pertaining clue. According to the significance of concentration of their DoB distribution clues are abandoned or pursued further to formulate task specific hypotheses. Communications between the agents serve to find out whether different clues belong to the same cause and thus can be put together. At the end of the investigation process, the different hypotheses are evaluated by a jury and a final report is created that constitutes the fusion result. The approach proposed avoids calculating global DoB distributions by adopting a local Bayesian approximation and thus reduces the complexity of the exact problem essentially. Different information sources are transformed into DoB distributions using the maximum entropy paradigm and considering known facts as constraints. Nominal, ordinal and cardinal quantities can be treated within this framework equally. The architecture is scalable by tailoring the number of agents according to the available computer resources, to the priority of tasks, and to the maximum duration of the fusion process. Furthermore, the architecture allows cooperative work of human and automated agents and experts, as long as not all subtasks can be accomplished automatically.

Introducing Computed Tomography Standards for Age Estimation of Modern Australian Subadults Using Postnatal Ossification Timings of Select Cranial and Cervical Sites(.).

PubMed

Lottering, Nicolene; MacGregor, Donna M; Alston, Clair L; Watson, Debbie; Gregory, Laura S

2016-01-01

Contemporary, population-specific ossification timings of the cranium are lacking in current literature due to challenges in obtaining large repositories of documented subadult material, forcing Australian practitioners to rely on North American, arguably antiquated reference standards for age estimation. This study assessed the temporal pattern of ossification of the cranium and provides recalibrated probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian children. Fusion status of the occipital and frontal bones, atlas, and axis was scored using a modified two- to four-tier system from cranial/cervical DICOM datasets of 585 children aged birth to 10 years. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate maximum-likelihood estimates between consecutive fusion stages, in conjunction with Bayesian statistics to calculate credible intervals for age estimation. Results demonstrate significant sex differences in skeletal maturation (p < 0.05) and earlier timings in comparison with major literary sources, underscoring the requisite of updated standards for age estimation of modern individuals. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Robust sensor fusion of unobtrusively measured heart rate.

PubMed

Wartzek, Tobias; Brüser, Christoph; Walter, Marian; Leonhardt, Steffen

2014-03-01

Contactless vital sign measurement technologies often have the drawback of severe motion artifacts and periods in which no signal is available. However, using several identical or physically different sensors, redundancy can be used to decrease the error in noncontact heart rate estimation, while increasing the time period during which reliable data are available. In this paper, we show for the first time two major results in case of contactless heart rate measurements deduced from a capacitive ECG and optical pulse signals. First, an artifact detection is an essential preprocessing step to allow a reliable fusion. Second, the robust but computationally efficient median already provides good results; however, using a Bayesian approach, and a short time estimation of the variance, best results in terms of difference to reference heart rate and temporal coverage can be achieved. In this paper, six sensor signals were used and coverage increased from 0-90% to 80-94%, while the difference between the estimated heart rate and the gold standard was less than ±2 BPM.

Bayesian Nonlinear Assimilation of Eulerian and Lagrangian Coastal Flow Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Lagrangian Coastal Flow Data Dr. Pierre F.J. Lermusiaux Department of Mechanical Engineering Center for Ocean Science and Engineering Massachusetts...Develop and apply theory, schemes and computational systems for rigorous Bayesian nonlinear assimilation of Eulerian and Lagrangian coastal flow data...coastal ocean fields, both in Eulerian and Lagrangian forms. - Further develop and implement our GMM-DO schemes for robust Bayesian nonlinear estimation

Reliability based impact localization in composite panels using Bayesian updating and the Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morse, Llewellyn; Sharif Khodaei, Zahra; Aliabadi, M. H.

2018-01-01

In this work, a reliability based impact detection strategy for a sensorized composite structure is proposed. Impacts are localized using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) with recorded guided waves due to impacts used as inputs. To account for variability in the recorded data under operational conditions, Bayesian updating and Kalman filter techniques are applied to improve the reliability of the detection algorithm. The possibility of having one or more faulty sensors is considered, and a decision fusion algorithm based on sub-networks of sensors is proposed to improve the application of the methodology to real structures. A strategy for reliably categorizing impacts into high energy impacts, which are probable to cause damage in the structure (true impacts), and low energy non-damaging impacts (false impacts), has also been proposed to reduce the false alarm rate. The proposed strategy involves employing classification ANNs with different features extracted from captured signals used as inputs. The proposed methodologies are validated by experimental results on a quasi-isotropic composite coupon impacted with a range of impact energies.

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

PubMed

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

EPA Science Inventory

Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

Semisupervised learning using Bayesian interpretation: application to LS-SVM.

PubMed

Adankon, Mathias M; Cheriet, Mohamed; Biem, Alain

2011-04-01

Bayesian reasoning provides an ideal basis for representing and manipulating uncertain knowledge, with the result that many interesting algorithms in machine learning are based on Bayesian inference. In this paper, we use the Bayesian approach with one and two levels of inference to model the semisupervised learning problem and give its application to the successful kernel classifier support vector machine (SVM) and its variant least-squares SVM (LS-SVM). Taking advantage of Bayesian interpretation of LS-SVM, we develop a semisupervised learning algorithm for Bayesian LS-SVM using our approach based on two levels of inference. Experimental results on both artificial and real pattern recognition problems show the utility of our method.

Robust all-source positioning of UAVs based on belief propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xi; Gao, Wenyun; Wang, Jiabo

2013-12-01

For unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) to survive hostile operational environments, it is always preferable to utilize all wireless positioning sources available to fuse a robust position. While belief propagation is a well-established method for all source data fusion, it is not an easy job to handle all the mathematics therein. In this work, a comprehensive mathematical framework for belief propagation-based all-source positioning of UAVs is developed, taking wireless sources including Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) space vehicles, peer UAVs, ground control stations, and signal of opportunities. Based on the mathematical framework, a positioning algorithm named Belief propagation-based Opportunistic Positioning of UAVs (BOPU) is proposed, with an unscented particle filter for Bayesian approximation. The robustness of the proposed BOPU is evaluated by a fictitious scenario that a group of formation flying UAVs encounter GNSS countermeasures en route. Four different configurations of measurements availability are simulated. The results show that the performance of BOPU varies only slightly with different measurements availability.

Advanced integrated enhanced vision systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, J. R.; Luk, Chiu H.; Hammerstrom, Dan; Pavel, Misha

2003-09-01

In anticipation of its ultimate role in transport, business and rotary wing aircraft, we clarify the role of Enhanced Vision Systems (EVS): how the output data will be utilized, appropriate architecture for total avionics integration, pilot and control interfaces, and operational utilization. Ground-map (database) correlation is critical, and we suggest that "synthetic vision" is simply a subset of the monitor/guidance interface issue. The core of integrated EVS is its sensor processor. In order to approximate optimal, Bayesian multi-sensor fusion and ground correlation functionality in real time, we are developing a neural net approach utilizing human visual pathway and self-organizing, associative-engine processing. In addition to EVS/SVS imagery, outputs will include sensor-based navigation and attitude signals as well as hazard detection. A system architecture is described, encompassing an all-weather sensor suite; advanced processing technology; intertial, GPS and other avionics inputs; and pilot and machine interfaces. Issues of total-system accuracy and integrity are addressed, as well as flight operational aspects relating to both civil certification and military applications in IMC.

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

Covariate Balance in Bayesian Propensity Score Approaches for Observational Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Jianshen; Kaplan, David

2015-01-01

Bayesian alternatives to frequentist propensity score approaches have recently been proposed. However, few studies have investigated their covariate balancing properties. This article compares a recently developed two-step Bayesian propensity score approach to the frequentist approach with respect to covariate balance. The effects of different…

A non-invasive blood glucose meter design using multi-type sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, D.; Nguyen, Hienvu; Roveda, Janet

2012-10-01

In this paper, we present a design of a multi optical modalities blood glucose monitor. The Monte Carlo tissues optics simulation with typical human skin model suggests the SNR ratio for a detector sensor is 104 with high sensitivity that can detect low blood sugar limit at 1 mMole/dL ( <20 mg/dL). A Bayesian filtering algorithm is proposed for multisensor fusion to identify whether e user has the danger of having diabetes. The new design has real time response (on the average of 2 minutes) and provides great potential to perform real time monitoring for blood glucose.

A Bayesian pick-the-winner design in a randomized phase II clinical trial.

PubMed

Chen, Dung-Tsa; Huang, Po-Yu; Lin, Hui-Yi; Chiappori, Alberto A; Gabrilovich, Dmitry I; Haura, Eric B; Antonia, Scott J; Gray, Jhanelle E

2017-10-24

Many phase II clinical trials evaluate unique experimental drugs/combinations through multi-arm design to expedite the screening process (early termination of ineffective drugs) and to identify the most effective drug (pick the winner) to warrant a phase III trial. Various statistical approaches have been developed for the pick-the-winner design but have been criticized for lack of objective comparison among the drug agents. We developed a Bayesian pick-the-winner design by integrating a Bayesian posterior probability with Simon two-stage design in a randomized two-arm clinical trial. The Bayesian posterior probability, as the rule to pick the winner, is defined as probability of the response rate in one arm higher than in the other arm. The posterior probability aims to determine the winner when both arms pass the second stage of the Simon two-stage design. When both arms are competitive (i.e., both passing the second stage), the Bayesian posterior probability performs better to correctly identify the winner compared with the Fisher exact test in the simulation study. In comparison to a standard two-arm randomized design, the Bayesian pick-the-winner design has a higher power to determine a clear winner. In application to two studies, the approach is able to perform statistical comparison of two treatment arms and provides a winner probability (Bayesian posterior probability) to statistically justify the winning arm. We developed an integrated design that utilizes Bayesian posterior probability, Simon two-stage design, and randomization into a unique setting. It gives objective comparisons between the arms to determine the winner.

Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Nonignorable Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum

2006-01-01

A Bayesian approach is developed for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with nonignorable missing data. The nonignorable missingness mechanism is specified by a logistic regression model. A hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates of…

Efficient multi-atlas abdominal segmentation on clinically acquired CT with SIMPLE context learning.

PubMed

Xu, Zhoubing; Burke, Ryan P; Lee, Christopher P; Baucom, Rebeccah B; Poulose, Benjamin K; Abramson, Richard G; Landman, Bennett A

2015-08-01

Abdominal segmentation on clinically acquired computed tomography (CT) has been a challenging problem given the inter-subject variance of human abdomens and complex 3-D relationships among organs. Multi-atlas segmentation (MAS) provides a potentially robust solution by leveraging label atlases via image registration and statistical fusion. We posit that the efficiency of atlas selection requires further exploration in the context of substantial registration errors. The selective and iterative method for performance level estimation (SIMPLE) method is a MAS technique integrating atlas selection and label fusion that has proven effective for prostate radiotherapy planning. Herein, we revisit atlas selection and fusion techniques for segmenting 12 abdominal structures using clinically acquired CT. Using a re-derived SIMPLE algorithm, we show that performance on multi-organ classification can be improved by accounting for exogenous information through Bayesian priors (so called context learning). These innovations are integrated with the joint label fusion (JLF) approach to reduce the impact of correlated errors among selected atlases for each organ, and a graph cut technique is used to regularize the combined segmentation. In a study of 100 subjects, the proposed method outperformed other comparable MAS approaches, including majority vote, SIMPLE, JLF, and the Wolz locally weighted vote technique. The proposed technique provides consistent improvement over state-of-the-art approaches (median improvement of 7.0% and 16.2% in DSC over JLF and Wolz, respectively) and moves toward efficient segmentation of large-scale clinically acquired CT data for biomarker screening, surgical navigation, and data mining. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An integrated approach for fusion of environmental and human health data for disease surveillance.

PubMed

Burkom, Howard S; Ramac-Thomas, Liane; Babin, Steven; Holtry, Rekha; Mnatsakanyan, Zaruhi; Yund, Cynthia

2011-02-28

This paper describes the problem of public health monitoring for waterborne disease outbreaks using disparate evidence from health surveillance data streams and environmental sensors. We present a combined monitoring approach along with examples from a recent project at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The project objective was to build a module for the Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics (ESSENCE) to include water quality data with health indicator data for the early detection of waterborne disease outbreaks. The basic question in the fused surveillance application is 'What is the likelihood of the public health threat of interest given recent information from available sources of evidence?' For a scientific perspective, we formulate this question in terms of the estimation of positive predictive value customary in classical epidemiology, and we present a solution framework using Bayesian Networks (BN). An overview of the BN approach presents advantages, disadvantages, and required adaptations needed for a fused surveillance capability that is scalable and robust relative to the practical data environment. In the BN project, we built a top-level health/water-quality fusion BN informed by separate waterborne-disease-related networks for the detection of water contamination and human health effects. Elements of the art of developing networks appropriate to this environment are discussed with examples. Results of applying these networks to a simulated contamination scenario are presented. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Bayesian-frequentist two-stage single-arm phase II clinical trial design.

PubMed

Dong, Gaohong; Shih, Weichung Joe; Moore, Dirk; Quan, Hui; Marcella, Stephen

2012-08-30

It is well-known that both frequentist and Bayesian clinical trial designs have their own advantages and disadvantages. To have better properties inherited from these two types of designs, we developed a Bayesian-frequentist two-stage single-arm phase II clinical trial design. This design allows both early acceptance and rejection of the null hypothesis ( H(0) ). The measures (for example probability of trial early termination, expected sample size, etc.) of the design properties under both frequentist and Bayesian settings are derived. Moreover, under the Bayesian setting, the upper and lower boundaries are determined with predictive probability of trial success outcome. Given a beta prior and a sample size for stage I, based on the marginal distribution of the responses at stage I, we derived Bayesian Type I and Type II error rates. By controlling both frequentist and Bayesian error rates, the Bayesian-frequentist two-stage design has special features compared with other two-stage designs. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian Asymmetric Regression as a Means to Estimate and Evaluate Oral Reading Fluency Slopes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solomon, Benjamin G.; Forsberg, Ole J.

2017-01-01

Bayesian techniques have become increasingly present in the social sciences, fueled by advances in computer speed and the development of user-friendly software. In this paper, we forward the use of Bayesian Asymmetric Regression (BAR) to monitor intervention responsiveness when using Curriculum-Based Measurement (CBM) to assess oral reading…

Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

PubMed

Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

Testing students’ e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling

PubMed Central

Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students’ intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods’ results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated. PMID:28886019

Fusion with Language Models Improves Spelling Accuracy for ERP-based Brain Computer Interface Spellers

PubMed Central

Orhan, Umut; Erdogmus, Deniz; Roark, Brian; Purwar, Shalini; Hild, Kenneth E.; Oken, Barry; Nezamfar, Hooman; Fried-Oken, Melanie

2013-01-01

Event related potentials (ERP) corresponding to a stimulus in electroencephalography (EEG) can be used to detect the intent of a person for brain computer interfaces (BCI). This paradigm is widely utilized to build letter-by-letter text input systems using BCI. Nevertheless using a BCI-typewriter depending only on EEG responses will not be sufficiently accurate for single-trial operation in general, and existing systems utilize many-trial schemes to achieve accuracy at the cost of speed. Hence incorporation of a language model based prior or additional evidence is vital to improve accuracy and speed. In this paper, we study the effects of Bayesian fusion of an n-gram language model with a regularized discriminant analysis ERP detector for EEG-based BCIs. The letter classification accuracies are rigorously evaluated for varying language model orders as well as number of ERP-inducing trials. The results demonstrate that the language models contribute significantly to letter classification accuracy. Specifically, we find that a BCI-speller supported by a 4-gram language model may achieve the same performance using 3-trial ERP classification for the initial letters of the words and using single trial ERP classification for the subsequent ones. Overall, fusion of evidence from EEG and language models yields a significant opportunity to increase the word rate of a BCI based typing system. PMID:22255652

Maximum saliency bias in binocular fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Yuhao; Stafford, Tom; Fox, Charles

2016-07-01

Subjective experience at any instant consists of a single ("unitary"), coherent interpretation of sense data rather than a "Bayesian blur" of alternatives. However, computation of Bayes-optimal actions has no role for unitary perception, instead being required to integrate over every possible action-percept pair to maximise expected utility. So what is the role of unitary coherent percepts, and how are they computed? Recent work provided objective evidence for non-Bayes-optimal, unitary coherent, perception and action in humans; and further suggested that the percept selected is not the maximum a posteriori percept but is instead affected by utility. The present study uses a binocular fusion task first to reproduce the same effect in a new domain, and second, to test multiple hypotheses about exactly how utility may affect the percept. After accounting for high experimental noise, it finds that both Bayes optimality (maximise expected utility) and the previously proposed maximum-utility hypothesis are outperformed in fitting the data by a modified maximum-salience hypothesis, using unsigned utility magnitudes in place of signed utilities in the bias function.

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review.

PubMed

Ashby, Deborah

2006-11-15

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

Bayesian data augmentation methods for the synthesis of qualitative and quantitative research findings

PubMed Central

Crandell, Jamie L.; Voils, Corrine I.; Chang, YunKyung; Sandelowski, Margarete

2010-01-01

The possible utility of Bayesian methods for the synthesis of qualitative and quantitative research has been repeatedly suggested but insufficiently investigated. In this project, we developed and used a Bayesian method for synthesis, with the goal of identifying factors that influence adherence to HIV medication regimens. We investigated the effect of 10 factors on adherence. Recognizing that not all factors were examined in all studies, we considered standard methods for dealing with missing data and chose a Bayesian data augmentation method. We were able to summarize, rank, and compare the effects of each of the 10 factors on medication adherence. This is a promising methodological development in the synthesis of qualitative and quantitative research. PMID:21572970

Moving in Parallel Toward a Modern Modeling Epistemology: Bayes Factors and Frequentist Modeling Methods.

PubMed

Rodgers, Joseph Lee

2016-01-01

The Bayesian-frequentist debate typically portrays these statistical perspectives as opposing views. However, both Bayesian and frequentist statisticians have expanded their epistemological basis away from a singular focus on the null hypothesis, to a broader perspective involving the development and comparison of competing statistical/mathematical models. For frequentists, statistical developments such as structural equation modeling and multilevel modeling have facilitated this transition. For Bayesians, the Bayes factor has facilitated this transition. The Bayes factor is treated in articles within this issue of Multivariate Behavioral Research. The current presentation provides brief commentary on those articles and more extended discussion of the transition toward a modern modeling epistemology. In certain respects, Bayesians and frequentists share common goals.

Development of an Integrated Team Training Design and Assessment Architecture to Support Adaptability in Healthcare Teams

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

and implementation of embedded, adaptive feedback and performance assessment. The investigators also initiated work designing a Bayesian Belief ...training; Teamwork; Adaptive performance; Leadership; Simulation; Modeling; Bayesian belief networks (BBN) 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION...Trauma teams Team training Teamwork Adaptability Adaptive performance Leadership Simulation Modeling Bayesian belief networks (BBN) 6

An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

2006-01-01

Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Big Data Fusion in Soil Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, B.; Kathuria, D.; Katzfuss, M.

2016-12-01

Soil moisture datasets from remote sensing (RS) platforms (such as SMOS and SMAP) and reanalysis products from land surface models are typically available on a coarse spatial granularity of several square km. Ground based sensors on the other hand provide observations on a finer spatial scale (meter scale or less) but are sparsely available. Soil moisture is affected by high variability due to complex interactions between geologic, topographic, vegetation and atmospheric variables. Hydrologic processes usually occur at a scale of 1 km or less and therefore spatially ubiquitous and temporally periodic soil moisture products at this scale are required to aid local decision makers in agriculture, weather prediction and reservoir operations. Past literature has largely focused on downscaling RS soil moisture for a small extent of a field or a watershed and hence the applicability of such products has been limited. The present study employs a spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) to derive soil moisture products at a spatial scale of 1 km for the state of Oklahoma by fusing point scale Mesonet data and coarse scale RS data for soil moisture and its auxiliary covariates such as precipitation, topography, soil texture and vegetation. It is seen that the BHM model handles change of support problems easily while performing accurate uncertainty quantification arising from measurement errors and imperfect retrieval algorithms. The computational challenge arising due to the large number of measurements is tackled by utilizing basis function approaches and likelihood approximations. The BHM model can be considered as a complex Bayesian extension of traditional geostatistical prediction methods (such as Kriging) for large datasets in the presence of uncertainties.

Object aggregation using Neyman-Pearson analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Li; Hinman, Michael L.

2003-04-01

This paper presents a novel approach to: 1) distinguish military vehicle groups, and 2) identify names of military vehicle convoys in the level-2 fusion process. The data is generated from a generic Ground Moving Target Indication (GMTI) simulator that utilizes Matlab and Microsoft Access. This data is processed to identify the convoys and number of vehicles in the convoy, using the minimum timed distance variance (MTDV) measurement. Once the vehicle groups are formed, convoy association is done using hypothesis techniques based upon Neyman Pearson (NP) criterion. One characteristic of NP is the low error probability when a-priori information is unknown. The NP approach was demonstrated with this advantage over a Bayesian technique.

Bayesian predictive power: choice of prior and some recommendations for its use as probability of success in drug development.

PubMed

Rufibach, Kaspar; Burger, Hans Ulrich; Abt, Markus

2016-09-01

Bayesian predictive power, the expectation of the power function with respect to a prior distribution for the true underlying effect size, is routinely used in drug development to quantify the probability of success of a clinical trial. Choosing the prior is crucial for the properties and interpretability of Bayesian predictive power. We review recommendations on the choice of prior for Bayesian predictive power and explore its features as a function of the prior. The density of power values induced by a given prior is derived analytically and its shape characterized. We find that for a typical clinical trial scenario, this density has a u-shape very similar, but not equal, to a β-distribution. Alternative priors are discussed, and practical recommendations to assess the sensitivity of Bayesian predictive power to its input parameters are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian cross-validation for model evaluation and selection, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William; Sauer, John R.

2016-01-01

The analysis of ecological data has changed in two important ways over the last 15 years. The development and easy availability of Bayesian computational methods has allowed and encouraged the fitting of complex hierarchical models. At the same time, there has been increasing emphasis on acknowledging and accounting for model uncertainty. Unfortunately, the ability to fit complex models has outstripped the development of tools for model selection and model evaluation: familiar model selection tools such as Akaike's information criterion and the deviance information criterion are widely known to be inadequate for hierarchical models. In addition, little attention has been paid to the evaluation of model adequacy in context of hierarchical modeling, i.e., to the evaluation of fit for a single model. In this paper, we describe Bayesian cross-validation, which provides tools for model selection and evaluation. We describe the Bayesian predictive information criterion and a Bayesian approximation to the BPIC known as the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion. We illustrate the use of these tools for model selection, and the use of Bayesian cross-validation as a tool for model evaluation, using three large data sets from the North American Breeding Bird Survey.

Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

Treesearch

B.G. Marcot; J.D. Steventon; G.D. Sutherland; R.K. McCann

2006-01-01

We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model...

Randomized Controlled Trial of Minimally Invasive Sacroiliac Joint Fusion Using Triangular Titanium Implants vs Nonsurgical Management for Sacroiliac Joint Dysfunction: 12-Month Outcomes.

PubMed

Polly, David W; Cher, Daniel J; Wine, Kathryn D; Whang, Peter G; Frank, Clay J; Harvey, Charles F; Lockstadt, Harry; Glaser, John A; Limoni, Robert P; Sembrano, Jonathan N

2015-11-01

Sacroiliac joint (SIJ) dysfunction is a prevalent cause of chronic, unremitting lower back pain. To concurrently compare outcomes after surgical and nonsurgical treatment for chronic SIJ dysfunction. A total of 148 subjects with SIJ dysfunction were randomly assigned to minimally invasive SIJ fusion with triangular titanium implants (n = 102) or nonsurgical management (n = 46). Pain, disability, and quality-of-life scores were collected at baseline and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Success rates were compared using Bayesian methods. Crossover from nonsurgical to surgical care was allowed after the 6-month study visit was complete. Six-month success rates were higher in the surgical group (81.4% vs 26.1%; posterior probability of superiority > 0.9999). Clinically important (≥ 15 point) Oswestry Disability Index improvement at 6 months occurred in 73.3% of the SIJ fusion group vs 13.6% of the nonsurgical management group (P < .001). At 12 months, improvements in SIJ pain and Oswestry Disability Index were sustained in the surgical group. Subjects who crossed over had improvements in pain, disability, and quality of life similar to those in the original surgical group. Adverse events were slightly more common in the surgical group (1.3 vs 1.1 events per subject; P = .31). This Level 1 study showed that minimally invasive SIJ fusion using triangular titanium implants was more effective than nonsurgical management at 1 year in relieving pain, improving function, and improving quality of life in patients with SIJ dysfunction caused by degenerative sacroiliitis or SIJ disruptions. Pain, disability, and quality of life also improved after crossover from nonsurgical to surgical treatment.

Development of uncertainty-based work injury model using Bayesian structural equation modelling.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Snehamoy

2014-01-01

This paper proposed a Bayesian method-based structural equation model (SEM) of miners' work injury for an underground coal mine in India. The environmental and behavioural variables for work injury were identified and causal relationships were developed. For Bayesian modelling, prior distributions of SEM parameters are necessary to develop the model. In this paper, two approaches were adopted to obtain prior distribution for factor loading parameters and structural parameters of SEM. In the first approach, the prior distributions were considered as a fixed distribution function with specific parameter values, whereas, in the second approach, prior distributions of the parameters were generated from experts' opinions. The posterior distributions of these parameters were obtained by applying Bayesian rule. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling in the form Gibbs sampling was applied for sampling from the posterior distribution. The results revealed that all coefficients of structural and measurement model parameters are statistically significant in experts' opinion-based priors, whereas, two coefficients are not statistically significant when fixed prior-based distributions are applied. The error statistics reveals that Bayesian structural model provides reasonably good fit of work injury with high coefficient of determination (0.91) and less mean squared error as compared to traditional SEM.

Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

2009-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems. In particular, we consider the development of large-scale Bayesian networks by composition. This compositional approach reflects how (often redundant) subsystems are architected to form systems such as electrical power systems. We develop high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems. The largest among these 24 Bayesian networks contains over 1,000 random variables. Another BN represents the real-world electrical power system ADAPT, which is representative of electrical power systems deployed in aerospace vehicles. In addition to demonstrating the scalability of the compositional approach, we briefly report on experimental results from the diagnostic competition DXC, where the ProADAPT team, using techniques discussed here, obtained the highest scores in both Tier 1 (among 9 international competitors) and Tier 2 (among 6 international competitors) of the industrial track. While we consider diagnosis of power systems specifically, we believe this work is relevant to other system health management problems, in particular in dependable systems such as aircraft and spacecraft. (See CASI ID 20100021910 for supplemental data disk.)

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

The Bayesian reader: explaining word recognition as an optimal Bayesian decision process.

PubMed

Norris, Dennis

2006-04-01

This article presents a theory of visual word recognition that assumes that, in the tasks of word identification, lexical decision, and semantic categorization, human readers behave as optimal Bayesian decision makers. This leads to the development of a computational model of word recognition, the Bayesian reader. The Bayesian reader successfully simulates some of the most significant data on human reading. The model accounts for the nature of the function relating word frequency to reaction time and identification threshold, the effects of neighborhood density and its interaction with frequency, and the variation in the pattern of neighborhood density effects seen in different experimental tasks. Both the general behavior of the model and the way the model predicts different patterns of results in different tasks follow entirely from the assumption that human readers approximate optimal Bayesian decision makers. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

A Primer on Bayesian Analysis for Experimental Psychopathologists

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Blanken, Tessa F.; Arnaudova, Inna; Matzke, Dora; Beckers, Tom

2016-01-01

The principal goals of experimental psychopathology (EPP) research are to offer insights into the pathogenic mechanisms of mental disorders and to provide a stable ground for the development of clinical interventions. The main message of the present article is that those goals are better served by the adoption of Bayesian statistics than by the continued use of null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). In the first part of the article we list the main disadvantages of NHST and explain why those disadvantages limit the conclusions that can be drawn from EPP research. Next, we highlight the advantages of Bayesian statistics. To illustrate, we then pit NHST and Bayesian analysis against each other using an experimental data set from our lab. Finally, we discuss some challenges when adopting Bayesian statistics. We hope that the present article will encourage experimental psychopathologists to embrace Bayesian statistics, which could strengthen the conclusions drawn from EPP research. PMID:28748068

Spatio-temporal interpolation of precipitation during monsoon periods in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Ijaz; Spöck, Gunter; Pilz, Jürgen; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2010-08-01

Spatio-temporal estimation of precipitation over a region is essential to the modeling of hydrologic processes for water resources management. The changes of magnitude and space-time heterogeneity of rainfall observations make space-time estimation of precipitation a challenging task. In this paper we propose a Box-Cox transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation method for the skewed response variable. The proposed method is applied to estimate space-time monthly precipitation in the monsoon periods during 1974-2000, and 27-year monthly average precipitation data are obtained from 51 stations in Pakistan. The results of transformed hierarchical Bayesian multivariate spatio-temporal interpolation are compared to those of non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian interpolation by using cross-validation. The software developed by [11] is used for Bayesian non-stationary multivariate space-time interpolation. It is observed that the transformed hierarchical Bayesian method provides more accuracy than the non-transformed hierarchical Bayesian method.

Is probabilistic bias analysis approximately Bayesian?

PubMed Central

MacLehose, Richard F.; Gustafson, Paul

2011-01-01

Case-control studies are particularly susceptible to differential exposure misclassification when exposure status is determined following incident case status. Probabilistic bias analysis methods have been developed as ways to adjust standard effect estimates based on the sensitivity and specificity of exposure misclassification. The iterative sampling method advocated in probabilistic bias analysis bears a distinct resemblance to a Bayesian adjustment; however, it is not identical. Furthermore, without a formal theoretical framework (Bayesian or frequentist), the results of a probabilistic bias analysis remain somewhat difficult to interpret. We describe, both theoretically and empirically, the extent to which probabilistic bias analysis can be viewed as approximately Bayesian. While the differences between probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to misclassification can be substantial, these situations often involve unrealistic prior specifications and are relatively easy to detect. Outside of these special cases, probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to exposure misclassification in case-control studies appear to perform equally well. PMID:22157311

Bayesian analyses of time-interval data for environmental radiation monitoring.

PubMed

Luo, Peng; Sharp, Julia L; DeVol, Timothy A

2013-01-01

Time-interval (time difference between two consecutive pulses) analysis based on the principles of Bayesian inference was investigated for online radiation monitoring. Using experimental and simulated data, Bayesian analysis of time-interval data [Bayesian (ti)] was compared with Bayesian and a conventional frequentist analysis of counts in a fixed count time [Bayesian (cnt) and single interval test (SIT), respectively]. The performances of the three methods were compared in terms of average run length (ARL) and detection probability for several simulated detection scenarios. Experimental data were acquired with a DGF-4C system in list mode. Simulated data were obtained using Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a random sampling of the Poisson distribution. All statistical algorithms were developed using the R Project for statistical computing. Bayesian analysis of time-interval information provided a similar detection probability as Bayesian analysis of count information, but the authors were able to make a decision with fewer pulses at relatively higher radiation levels. In addition, for the cases with very short presence of the source (< count time), time-interval information is more sensitive to detect a change than count information since the source data is averaged by the background data over the entire count time. The relationships of the source time, change points, and modifications to the Bayesian approach for increasing detection probability are presented.

Fusion Energy Division progress report, 1 January 1990--31 December 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheffield, J.; Baker, C.C.; Saltmarsh, M.J.

1994-03-01

The Fusion Program of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), a major part of the national fusion program, encompasses nearly all areas of magnetic fusion research. The program is directed toward the development of fusion as an economical and environmentally attractive energy source for the future. The program involves staff from ORNL, Martin Marietta Energy systems, Inc., private industry, the academic community, and other fusion laboratories, in the US and abroad. Achievements resulting from this collaboration are documented in this report, which is issued as the progress report of the ORNL Fusion Energy Division; it also contains information from componentsmore » for the Fusion Program that are external to the division (about 15% of the program effort). The areas addressed by the Fusion Program include the following: experimental and theoretical research on magnetic confinement concepts; engineering and physics of existing and planned devices, including remote handling; development and testing of diagnostic tools and techniques in support of experiments; assembly and distribution to the fusion community of databases on atomic physics and radiation effects; development and testing of technologies for heating and fueling fusion plasmas; development and testing of superconducting magnets for containing fusion plasmas; development and testing of materials for fusion devices; and exploration of opportunities to apply the unique skills, technology, and techniques developed in the course of this work to other areas (about 15% of the Division`s activities). Highlights from program activities during 1990 and 1991 are presented.« less

Efficient Probabilistic Diagnostics for Electrical Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole J.; Chavira, Mark; Cascio, Keith; Poll, Scott; Darwiche, Adnan; Uckun, Serdar

2008-01-01

We consider in this work the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis when applied to electrical power systems (EPSs). Our probabilistic approach is formally well-founded, as it based on Bayesian networks and arithmetic circuits. We investigate the diagnostic task known as fault isolation, and pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges . model development and real-time reasoning . often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing electrical power systems as Bayesian networks, supported by an easy-to-use speci.cation language. To address the real-time reasoning challenge, we compile Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits. Arithmetic circuit evaluation supports real-time diagnosis by being predictable and fast. In essence, we introduce a high-level EPS speci.cation language from which Bayesian networks that can diagnose multiple simultaneous failures are auto-generated, and we illustrate the feasibility of using arithmetic circuits, compiled from Bayesian networks, for real-time diagnosis on real-world EPSs of interest to NASA. The experimental system is a real-world EPS, namely the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. In experiments with the ADAPT Bayesian network, which currently contains 503 discrete nodes and 579 edges, we .nd high diagnostic accuracy in scenarios where one to three faults, both in components and sensors, were inserted. The time taken to compute the most probable explanation using arithmetic circuits has a small mean of 0.2625 milliseconds and standard deviation of 0.2028 milliseconds. In experiments with data from ADAPT we also show that arithmetic circuit evaluation substantially outperforms joint tree propagation and variable elimination, two alternative algorithms for diagnosis using Bayesian network inference.

Final Report, DOE Early Career Award: Predictive modeling of complex physical systems: new tools for statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and experimental design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marzouk, Youssef

Predictive simulation of complex physical systems increasingly rests on the interplay of experimental observations with computational models. Key inputs, parameters, or structural aspects of models may be incomplete or unknown, and must be developed from indirect and limited observations. At the same time, quantified uncertainties are needed to qualify computational predictions in the support of design and decision-making. In this context, Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and limited data, but at prohibitive computional expense. This project intends to make rigorous predictive modeling *feasible* in complex physical systems, via accelerated and scalable tools for uncertainty quantification, Bayesianmore » inference, and experimental design. Specific objectives are as follows: 1. Develop adaptive posterior approximations and dimensionality reduction approaches for Bayesian inference in high-dimensional nonlinear systems. 2. Extend accelerated Bayesian methodologies to large-scale {\\em sequential} data assimilation, fully treating nonlinear models and non-Gaussian state and parameter distributions. 3. Devise efficient surrogate-based methods for Bayesian model selection and the learning of model structure. 4. Develop scalable simulation/optimization approaches to nonlinear Bayesian experimental design, for both parameter inference and model selection. 5. Demonstrate these inferential tools on chemical kinetic models in reacting flow, constructing and refining thermochemical and electrochemical models from limited data. Demonstrate Bayesian filtering on canonical stochastic PDEs and in the dynamic estimation of inhomogeneous subsurface properties and flow fields.« less

A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

2011-01-01

During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

Predicting site locations for biomass using facilities with Bayesian methods

Treesearch

Timothy M. Young; James H. Perdue; Xia Huang

2017-01-01

Logistic regression models combined with Bayesian inference were developed to predict locations and quantify factors that influence the siting of biomass-using facilities that use woody biomass in the Southeastern United States. Predictions were developed for two groups of mills, one representing larger capacity mills similar to pulp and paper mills (Group II...

A Bayesian approach to evaluating habitat for woodland caribou in north-central British Columbia.

Treesearch

R.S. McNay; B.G. Marcot; V. Brumovsky; R. Ellis

2006-01-01

Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations are in decline throughout much of their range. With increasing development of caribou habitat, tools are required to make management decisions to support effective conservation of caribou and their range. We developed a series of Bayesian belief networks to evaluate conservation policy...

Predicting Software Suitability Using a Bayesian Belief Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beaver, Justin M.; Schiavone, Guy A.; Berrios, Joseph S.

2005-01-01

The ability to reliably predict the end quality of software under development presents a significant advantage for a development team. It provides an opportunity to address high risk components earlier in the development life cycle, when their impact is minimized. This research proposes a model that captures the evolution of the quality of a software product, and provides reliable forecasts of the end quality of the software being developed in terms of product suitability. Development team skill, software process maturity, and software problem complexity are hypothesized as driving factors of software product quality. The cause-effect relationships between these factors and the elements of software suitability are modeled using Bayesian Belief Networks, a machine learning method. This research presents a Bayesian Network for software quality, and the techniques used to quantify the factors that influence and represent software quality. The developed model is found to be effective in predicting the end product quality of small-scale software development efforts.

Diagnosis and Reconfiguration using Bayesian Networks: An Electrical Power System Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knox, W. Bradley; Mengshoel, Ole

2009-01-01

Automated diagnosis and reconfiguration are important computational techniques that aim to minimize human intervention in autonomous systems. In this paper, we develop novel techniques and models in the context of diagnosis and reconfiguration reasoning using causal Bayesian networks (BNs). We take as starting point a successful diagnostic approach, using a static BN developed for a real-world electrical power system. We discuss in this paper the extension of this diagnostic approach along two dimensions, namely: (i) from a static BN to a dynamic BN; and (ii) from a diagnostic task to a reconfiguration task. More specifically, we discuss the auto-generation of a dynamic Bayesian network from a static Bayesian network. In addition, we discuss subtle, but important, differences between Bayesian networks when used for diagnosis versus reconfiguration. We discuss a novel reconfiguration agent, which models a system causally, including effects of actions through time, using a dynamic Bayesian network. Though the techniques we discuss are general, we demonstrate them in the context of electrical power systems (EPSs) for aircraft and spacecraft. EPSs are vital subsystems on-board aircraft and spacecraft, and many incidents and accidents of these vehicles have been attributed to EPS failures. We discuss a case study that provides initial but promising results for our approach in the setting of electrical power systems.

Bayesian Inference for Time Trends in Parameter Values: Case Study for the Ageing PSA Network of the European Commission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dana L. Kelly; Albert Malkhasyan

2010-06-01

There is a nearly ubiquitous assumption in PSA that parameter values are at least piecewise-constant in time. As a result, Bayesian inference tends to incorporate many years of plant operation, over which there have been significant changes in plant operational and maintenance practices, plant management, etc. These changes can cause significant changes in parameter values over time; however, failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework can mask these changes. Failure to question the assumption of constant parameter values, and failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework were noted as important issues in NUREG/CR-6813, performedmore » for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards in 2003. That report noted that “industry lacks tools to perform time-trend analysis with Bayesian updating.” This paper describes an application of time-dependent Bayesian inference methods developed for the European Commission Ageing PSA Network. These methods utilize open-source software, implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The paper also illustrates the development of a generic prior distribution, which incorporates multiple sources of generic data via weighting factors that address differences in key influences, such as vendor, component boundaries, conditions of the operating environment, etc.« less

Trans-dimensional and hierarchical Bayesian approaches toward rigorous estimation of seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seongryong; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Mustać, Marija; Rhie, Junkee; Ford, Sean

2016-04-01

A framework is presented within which we provide rigorous estimations for seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia. We use Bayesian inversion methods, which enable statistical estimations of models and their uncertainties based on data information. Ambiguities in error statistics and model parameterizations are addressed by hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques, which can be inherently implemented in the Bayesian inversions. Hence reliable estimation of model parameters and their uncertainties is possible, thus avoiding arbitrary regularizations and parameterizations. Hierarchical and trans-D inversions are performed to develop a three-dimensional velocity model using ambient noise data. To further improve the model, we perform joint inversions with receiver function data using a newly developed Bayesian method. For the source estimation, a novel moment tensor inversion method is presented and applied to regional waveform data of the North Korean nuclear explosion tests. By the combination of new Bayesian techniques and the structural model, coupled with meaningful uncertainties related to each of the processes, more quantitative monitoring and discrimination of seismic events is possible.

US EPA 2012 Air Quality Fused Surface for the Conterminous U.S. Map Service

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This web service contains a polygon layer that depicts fused air quality predictions for 2012 for census tracts in the conterminous United States. Fused air quality predictions (for ozone and PM2.5) are modeled using a Bayesian space-time downscaling fusion model approach described in a series of three published journal papers: 1) (Berrocal, V., Gelfand, A. E. and Holland, D. M. (2012). Space-time fusion under error in computer model output: an application to modeling air quality. Biometrics 68, 837-848; 2) Berrocal, V., Gelfand, A. E. and Holland, D. M. (2010). A bivariate space-time downscaler under space and time misalignment. The Annals of Applied Statistics 4, 1942-1975; and 3) Berrocal, V., Gelfand, A. E., and Holland, D. M. (2010). A spatio-temporal downscaler for output from numerical models. J. of Agricultural, Biological,and Environmental Statistics 15, 176-197) is used to provide daily, predictive PM2.5 (daily average) and O3 (daily 8-hr maximum) surfaces for 2012. Summer (O3) and annual (PM2.5) means calculated and published. The downscaling fusion model uses both air quality monitoring data from the National Air Monitoring Stations/State and Local Air Monitoring Stations (NAMS/SLAMS) and numerical output from the Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ). Currently, predictions at the US census tract centroid locations within the 12 km CMAQ domain are archived. Predictions at the CMAQ grid cell centroids, or any desired set of locations co

The role of fusion in ant chromosome evolution: insights from cytogenetic analysis using a molecular phylogenetic approach in the genus mycetophylax.

PubMed

Cardoso, Danon Clemes; das Graças Pompolo, Silvia; Cristiano, Maykon Passos; Tavares, Mara Garcia

2014-01-01

Among insect taxa, ants exhibit one of the most variable chromosome numbers ranging from n = 1 to n = 60. This high karyotype diversity is suggested to be correlated to ants diversification. The karyotype evolution of ants is usually understood in terms of Robertsonian rearrangements towards an increase in chromosome numbers. The ant genus Mycetophylax is a small monogynous basal Attini ant (Formicidae: Myrmicinae), endemic to sand dunes along the Brazilian coastlines. A recent taxonomic revision validates three species, Mycetophylax morschi, M. conformis and M. simplex. In this paper, we cytogenetically characterized all species that belongs to the genus and analyzed the karyotypic evolution of Mycetophylax in the context of a molecular phylogeny and ancestral character state reconstruction. M. morschi showed a polymorphic number of chromosomes, with colonies showing 2n = 26 and 2n = 30 chromosomes. M. conformis presented a diploid chromosome number of 30 chromosomes, while M. simplex showed 36 chromosomes. The probabilistic models suggest that the ancestral haploid chromosome number of Mycetophylax was 17 (Likelihood framework) or 18 (Bayesian framework). The analysis also suggested that fusions were responsible for the evolutionary reduction in chromosome numbers of M. conformis and M. morschi karyotypes whereas fission may determines the M. simplex karyotype. These results obtained show the importance of fusions in chromosome changes towards a chromosome number reduction in Formicidae and how a phylogenetic background can be used to reconstruct hypotheses about chromosomes evolution.

Statistical modeling for Bayesian extrapolation of adult clinical trial information in pediatric drug evaluation.

PubMed

Gamalo-Siebers, Margaret; Savic, Jasmina; Basu, Cynthia; Zhao, Xin; Gopalakrishnan, Mathangi; Gao, Aijun; Song, Guochen; Baygani, Simin; Thompson, Laura; Xia, H Amy; Price, Karen; Tiwari, Ram; Carlin, Bradley P

2017-07-01

Children represent a large underserved population of "therapeutic orphans," as an estimated 80% of children are treated off-label. However, pediatric drug development often faces substantial challenges, including economic, logistical, technical, and ethical barriers, among others. Among many efforts trying to remove these barriers, increased recent attention has been paid to extrapolation; that is, the leveraging of available data from adults or older age groups to draw conclusions for the pediatric population. The Bayesian statistical paradigm is natural in this setting, as it permits the combining (or "borrowing") of information across disparate sources, such as the adult and pediatric data. In this paper, authored by the pediatric subteam of the Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group and Adaptive Design Working Group, we develop, illustrate, and provide suggestions on Bayesian statistical methods that could be used to design improved pediatric development programs that use all available information in the most efficient manner. A variety of relevant Bayesian approaches are described, several of which are illustrated through 2 case studies: extrapolating adult efficacy data to expand the labeling for Remicade to include pediatric ulcerative colitis and extrapolating adult exposure-response information for antiepileptic drugs to pediatrics. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-05

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model , is able to model the rate of occurrence of...which adds specificity to the model and can make nonlinear data more manageable. Early results show that the 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE

Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection.

PubMed

Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

2017-06-01

A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.

A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors

EPA Science Inventory

The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently pu...

MEG and fMRI Fusion for Non-Linear Estimation of Neural and BOLD Signal Changes

PubMed Central

Plis, Sergey M.; Calhoun, Vince D.; Weisend, Michael P.; Eichele, Tom; Lane, Terran

2010-01-01

The combined analysis of magnetoencephalography (MEG)/electroencephalography and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) measurements can lead to improvement in the description of the dynamical and spatial properties of brain activity. In this paper we empirically demonstrate this improvement using simulated and recorded task related MEG and fMRI activity. Neural activity estimates were derived using a dynamic Bayesian network with continuous real valued parameters by means of a sequential Monte Carlo technique. In synthetic data, we show that MEG and fMRI fusion improves estimation of the indirectly observed neural activity and smooths tracking of the blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) response. In recordings of task related neural activity the combination of MEG and fMRI produces a result with greater signal-to-noise ratio, that confirms the expectation arising from the nature of the experiment. The highly non-linear model of the BOLD response poses a difficult inference problem for neural activity estimation; computational requirements are also high due to the time and space complexity. We show that joint analysis of the data improves the system's behavior by stabilizing the differential equations system and by requiring fewer computational resources. PMID:21120141

Application of bayesian networks to real-time flood risk estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, L.; Molina, M.; Blasco, G.

2003-04-01

This paper presents the application of a computational paradigm taken from the field of artificial intelligence - the bayesian network - to model the behaviour of hydrologic basins during floods. The final goal of this research is to develop representation techniques for hydrologic simulation models in order to define, develop and validate a mechanism, supported by a software environment, oriented to build decision models for the prediction and management of river floods in real time. The emphasis is placed on providing decision makers with tools to incorporate their knowledge of basin behaviour, usually formulated in terms of rainfall-runoff models, in the process of real-time decision making during floods. A rainfall-runoff model is only a step in the process of decision making. If a reliable rainfall forecast is available and the rainfall-runoff model is well calibrated, decisions can be based mainly on model results. However, in most practical situations, uncertainties in rainfall forecasts or model performance have to be incorporated in the decision process. The computation paradigm adopted for the simulation of hydrologic processes is the bayesian network. A bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph that represents causal influences between linked variables. Under this representation, uncertain qualitative variables are related through causal relations quantified with conditional probabilities. The solution algorithm allows the computation of the expected probability distribution of unknown variables conditioned to the observations. An approach to represent hydrologic processes by bayesian networks with temporal and spatial extensions is presented in this paper, together with a methodology for the development of bayesian models using results produced by deterministic hydrologic simulation models

Resident Space Object Characterization and Behavior Understanding via Machine Learning and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furfaro, R.; Linares, R.; Gaylor, D.; Jah, M.; Walls, R.

2016-09-01

In this paper, we present an end-to-end approach that employs machine learning techniques and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks (BN) to characterize the behavior of resident space objects. State-of-the-Art machine learning architectures (e.g. Extreme Learning Machines, Convolutional Deep Networks) are trained on physical models to learn the Resident Space Object (RSO) features in the vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters. The mapping from measurements to vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters enables behavior characterization via clustering in the features space and subsequent RSO classification. Additionally, Space Object Behavioral Ontologies (SOBO) are employed to define and capture the domain knowledge-base (KB) and BNs are constructed from the SOBO in a semi-automatic fashion to execute probabilistic reasoning over conclusions drawn from trained classifiers and/or directly from processed data. Such an approach enables integrating machine learning classifiers and probabilistic reasoning to support higher-level decision making for space domain awareness applications. The innovation here is to use these methods (which have enjoyed great success in other domains) in synergy so that it enables a "from data to discovery" paradigm by facilitating the linkage and fusion of large and disparate sources of information via a Big Data Science and Analytics framework.

Histogram equalization with Bayesian estimation for noise robust speech recognition.

PubMed

Suh, Youngjoo; Kim, Hoirin

2018-02-01

The histogram equalization approach is an efficient feature normalization technique for noise robust automatic speech recognition. However, it suffers from performance degradation when some fundamental conditions are not satisfied in the test environment. To remedy these limitations of the original histogram equalization methods, class-based histogram equalization approach has been proposed. Although this approach showed substantial performance improvement under noise environments, it still suffers from performance degradation due to the overfitting problem when test data are insufficient. To address this issue, the proposed histogram equalization technique employs the Bayesian estimation method in the test cumulative distribution function estimation. It was reported in a previous study conducted on the Aurora-4 task that the proposed approach provided substantial performance gains in speech recognition systems based on the acoustic modeling of the Gaussian mixture model-hidden Markov model. In this work, the proposed approach was examined in speech recognition systems with deep neural network-hidden Markov model (DNN-HMM), the current mainstream speech recognition approach where it also showed meaningful performance improvement over the conventional maximum likelihood estimation-based method. The fusion of the proposed features with the mel-frequency cepstral coefficients provided additional performance gains in DNN-HMM systems, which otherwise suffer from performance degradation in the clean test condition.

Beginning Bayes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erickson, Tim

2017-01-01

Understanding a Bayesian perspective demands comfort with conditional probability and with probabilities that appear to change as we acquire additional information. This paper suggests a simple context in conditional probability that helps develop the understanding students would need for a successful introduction to Bayesian reasoning.

Engineered three-dimensional multicellular culture model to recapitulate morphogenetic fusion using human cells

EPA Science Inventory

Tissue fusion during early mammalian development requires crosstalk between multiple cell types. For example, paracrine signaling between palatal epithelial cells and palatal mesenchyme mediates the fusion of opposing palatal shelves during embryonic development. Fusion events in...

Bayesian just-so stories in psychology and neuroscience.

PubMed

Bowers, Jeffrey S; Davis, Colin J

2012-05-01

According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak. This weakness relates to the many arbitrary ways that priors, likelihoods, and utility functions can be altered in order to account for the data that are obtained, making the models unfalsifiable. It further relates to the fact that Bayesian theories are rarely better at predicting data compared with alternative (and simpler) non-Bayesian theories. Second, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in neuroscience is weaker still. There are impressive mathematical analyses showing how populations of neurons could compute in a Bayesian manner but little or no evidence that they do. Third, we challenge the general scientific approach that characterizes Bayesian theorizing in cognitive science. A common premise is that theories in psychology should largely be constrained by a rational analysis of what the mind ought to do. We question this claim and argue that many of the important constraints come from biological, evolutionary, and processing (algorithmic) considerations that have no adaptive relevance to the problem per se. In our view, these factors have contributed to the development of many Bayesian "just so" stories in psychology and neuroscience; that is, mathematical analyses of cognition that can be used to explain almost any behavior as optimal. 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Investigating different approaches to develop informative priors in hierarchical Bayesian safety performance functions.

PubMed

Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2013-07-01

The Bayesian inference method has been frequently adopted to develop safety performance functions. One advantage of the Bayesian inference is that prior information for the independent variables can be included in the inference procedures. However, there are few studies that discussed how to formulate informative priors for the independent variables and evaluated the effects of incorporating informative priors in developing safety performance functions. This paper addresses this deficiency by introducing four approaches of developing informative priors for the independent variables based on historical data and expert experience. Merits of these informative priors have been tested along with two types of Bayesian hierarchical models (Poisson-gamma and Poisson-lognormal models). Deviance information criterion (DIC), R-square values, and coefficients of variance for the estimations were utilized as evaluation measures to select the best model(s). Comparison across the models indicated that the Poisson-gamma model is superior with a better model fit and it is much more robust with the informative priors. Moreover, the two-stage Bayesian updating informative priors provided the best goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimation accuracies. Furthermore, informative priors for the inverse dispersion parameter have also been introduced and tested. Different types of informative priors' effects on the model estimations and goodness-of-fit have been compared and concluded. Finally, based on the results, recommendations for future research topics and study applications have been made. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Organotypic three-dimensional culture model of mesenchymal and epithelial cells to examine tissue fusion events.

EPA Science Inventory

Tissue fusion during early mammalian development requires coordination of multiple cell types, the extracellular matrix, and complex signaling pathways. Fusion events during processes including heart development, neural tube closure, and palatal fusion are dependent on signaling ...

Uncertainty aggregation and reduction in structure-material performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Ao, Dan

2018-02-01

An uncertainty aggregation and reduction framework is presented for structure-material performance prediction. Different types of uncertainty sources, structural analysis model, and material performance prediction model are connected through a Bayesian network for systematic uncertainty aggregation analysis. To reduce the uncertainty in the computational structure-material performance prediction model, Bayesian updating using experimental observation data is investigated based on the Bayesian network. It is observed that the Bayesian updating results will have large error if the model cannot accurately represent the actual physics, and that this error will be propagated to the predicted performance distribution. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty reduction method by integrating Bayesian calibration with model validation adaptively. The observation domain of the quantity of interest is first discretized into multiple segments. An adaptive algorithm is then developed to perform model validation and Bayesian updating over these observation segments sequentially. Only information from observation segments where the model prediction is highly reliable is used for Bayesian updating; this is found to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of uncertainty reduction. A composite rotorcraft hub component fatigue life prediction model, which combines a finite element structural analysis model and a material damage model, is used to demonstrate the proposed method.

The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2013-04-01

SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ansari, Asim; Iyengar, Raghuram

2006-01-01

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven…

Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vatan, Farrokh

2012-01-01

Fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis are essential tasks in the operation of autonomous spacecraft, instruments, and in situ platforms. One of NASA s key mission requirements is robust state estimation. Sensing, using a wide range of sensors and sensor fusion approaches, plays a central role in robust state estimation, and there is a need to diagnose sensor failure as well as component failure. Sensor validation can be considered to be part of the larger effort of improving reliability and safety. The standard methods for solving the sensor validation problem are based on probabilistic analysis of the system, from which the method based on Bayesian networks is most popular. Therefore, these methods can only predict the most probable faulty sensors, which are subject to the initial probabilities defined for the failures. The method developed in this work is based on a model-based approach and provides the faulty sensors (if any), which can be logically inferred from the model of the system and the sensor readings (observations). The method is also more suitable for the systems when it is hard, or even impossible, to find the probability functions of the system. The method starts by a new mathematical description of the problem and develops a very efficient and systematic algorithm for its solution. The method builds on the concepts of analytical redundant relations (ARRs).

Strategy for D/He-3 fusion development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santarius, John F.

1988-01-01

It is concluded that Deuterium/Helium-3 fusion faces a more difficult physics development path but an easier technology development path than does Deuterium/Tritium. Early D/He-3 tests in next generation D/T fusion experiments might provide a valuable D/He-3 proof-of-principle at modest cost. At least one high leverage alternate concept should be vigorously pursued. Space applications of D/He-3 fusion are critically important to large scale development.

Practical Bayesian tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granade, Christopher; Combes, Joshua; Cory, D. G.

2016-03-01

In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of-the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we address all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Huszár and Houlsby (2012 Phys. Rev. A 85 052120) and by Ferrie (2014 New J. Phys. 16 093035), to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first priors on quantum states and channels that allow for including useful experimental insight. Finally, we develop a method that allows tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sanjib

2017-08-01

Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.

Bayesian Modeling of the Assimilative Capacity Component of Stream Nutrient Export

EPA Science Inventory

Implementing stream restoration techniques and best management practices to reduce nonpoint source nutrients implies enhancement of the assimilative capacity for the stream system. In this paper, a Bayesian method for evaluating this component of a TMDL load capacity is developed...

CytoBayesJ: software tools for Bayesian analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data.

PubMed

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Vinnikov, Volodymyr; Puig, Pedro; Maznyk, Nataliya; Rothkamm, Kai; Lloyd, David C

2013-08-30

A number of authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach may be most appropriate for analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data. In the Bayesian framework, probability of an event is described in terms of previous expectations and uncertainty. Previously existing, or prior, information is used in combination with experimental results to infer probabilities or the likelihood that a hypothesis is true. It has been shown that the Bayesian approach increases both the accuracy and quality assurance of radiation dose estimates. New software entitled CytoBayesJ has been developed with the aim of bringing Bayesian analysis to cytogenetic biodosimetry laboratory practice. CytoBayesJ takes a number of Bayesian or 'Bayesian like' methods that have been proposed in the literature and presents them to the user in the form of simple user-friendly tools, including testing for the most appropriate model for distribution of chromosome aberrations and calculations of posterior probability distributions. The individual tools are described in detail and relevant examples of the use of the methods and the corresponding CytoBayesJ software tools are given. In this way, the suitability of the Bayesian approach to biological radiation dosimetry is highlighted and its wider application encouraged by providing a user-friendly software interface and manual in English and Russian. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

PubMed

Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls that have plagued previous theoretical movements.

Confirmatory Factor Analysis Alternative: Free, Accessible CBID Software.

PubMed

Bott, Marjorie; Karanevich, Alex G; Garrard, Lili; Price, Larry R; Mudaranthakam, Dinesh Pal; Gajewski, Byron

2018-02-01

New software that performs Classical and Bayesian Instrument Development (CBID) is reported that seamlessly integrates expert (content validity) and participant data (construct validity) to produce entire reliability estimates with smaller sample requirements. The free CBID software can be accessed through a website and used by clinical investigators in new instrument development. Demonstrations are presented of the three approaches using the CBID software: (a) traditional confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), (b) Bayesian CFA using flat uninformative prior, and (c) Bayesian CFA using content expert data (informative prior). Outcomes of usability testing demonstrate the need to make the user-friendly, free CBID software available to interdisciplinary researchers. CBID has the potential to be a new and expeditious method for instrument development, adding to our current measurement toolbox. This allows for the development of new instruments for measuring determinants of health in smaller diverse populations or populations of rare diseases.

Randomized Controlled Trial of Minimally Invasive Sacroiliac Joint Fusion Using Triangular Titanium Implants vs Nonsurgical Management for Sacroiliac Joint Dysfunction: 12-Month Outcomes

PubMed Central

Polly, David W.; Wine, Kathryn D.; Whang, Peter G.; Frank, Clay J.; Harvey, Charles F.; Lockstadt, Harry; Glaser, John A.; Limoni, Robert P.; Sembrano, Jonathan N.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Sacroiliac joint (SIJ) dysfunction is a prevalent cause of chronic, unremitting lower back pain. OBJECTIVE: To concurrently compare outcomes after surgical and nonsurgical treatment for chronic SIJ dysfunction. METHODS: A total of 148 subjects with SIJ dysfunction were randomly assigned to minimally invasive SIJ fusion with triangular titanium implants (n = 102) or nonsurgical management (n = 46). Pain, disability, and quality-of-life scores were collected at baseline and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Success rates were compared using Bayesian methods. Crossover from nonsurgical to surgical care was allowed after the 6-month study visit was complete. RESULTS: Six-month success rates were higher in the surgical group (81.4% vs 26.1%; posterior probability of superiority > 0.9999). Clinically important (≥ 15 point) Oswestry Disability Index improvement at 6 months occurred in 73.3% of the SIJ fusion group vs 13.6% of the nonsurgical management group (P < .001). At 12 months, improvements in SIJ pain and Oswestry Disability Index were sustained in the surgical group. Subjects who crossed over had improvements in pain, disability, and quality of life similar to those in the original surgical group. Adverse events were slightly more common in the surgical group (1.3 vs 1.1 events per subject; P = .31). CONCLUSION: This Level 1 study showed that minimally invasive SIJ fusion using triangular titanium implants was more effective than nonsurgical management at 1 year in relieving pain, improving function, and improving quality of life in patients with SIJ dysfunction caused by degenerative sacroiliitis or SIJ disruptions. Pain, disability, and quality of life also improved after crossover from nonsurgical to surgical treatment. ABBREVIATIONS: EQ-5D, EuroQoL-5D INSITE, Investigation of Sacroiliac Fusion Treatment MCS, mental component summary NSM, nonsurgical management ODI, Oswestry Disability Index PCS, physical component summary RFA, radiofrequency ablation SF-36, Short Form-36 SIJ, sacroiliac joint TTO, time trade-off VAS, visual analog scale PMID:26291338

A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

2018-01-01

Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior distributions in such approaches.

Driver Fusions and Their Implications in the Development and Treatment of Human Cancers.

PubMed

Gao, Qingsong; Liang, Wen-Wei; Foltz, Steven M; Mutharasu, Gnanavel; Jayasinghe, Reyka G; Cao, Song; Liao, Wen-Wei; Reynolds, Sheila M; Wyczalkowski, Matthew A; Yao, Lijun; Yu, Lihua; Sun, Sam Q; Chen, Ken; Lazar, Alexander J; Fields, Ryan C; Wendl, Michael C; Van Tine, Brian A; Vij, Ravi; Chen, Feng; Nykter, Matti; Shmulevich, Ilya; Ding, Li

2018-04-03

Gene fusions represent an important class of somatic alterations in cancer. We systematically investigated fusions in 9,624 tumors across 33 cancer types using multiple fusion calling tools. We identified a total of 25,664 fusions, with a 63% validation rate. Integration of gene expression, copy number, and fusion annotation data revealed that fusions involving oncogenes tend to exhibit increased expression, whereas fusions involving tumor suppressors have the opposite effect. For fusions involving kinases, we found 1,275 with an intact kinase domain, the proportion of which varied significantly across cancer types. Our study suggests that fusions drive the development of 16.5% of cancer cases and function as the sole driver in more than 1% of them. Finally, we identified druggable fusions involving genes such as TMPRSS2, RET, FGFR3, ALK, and ESR1 in 6.0% of cases, and we predicted immunogenic peptides, suggesting that fusions may provide leads for targeted drug and immune therapy. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel method for expediting the development of patient-reported outcome measures and an evaluation across several populations

PubMed Central

Garrard, Lili; Price, Larry R.; Bott, Marjorie J.; Gajewski, Byron J.

2016-01-01

Item response theory (IRT) models provide an appropriate alternative to the classical ordinal confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) during the development of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Current literature has identified the assessment of IRT model fit as both challenging and underdeveloped (Sinharay & Johnson, 2003; Sinharay, Johnson, & Stern, 2006). This study evaluates the performance of Ordinal Bayesian Instrument Development (OBID), a Bayesian IRT model with a probit link function approach, through applications in two breast cancer-related instrument development studies. The primary focus is to investigate an appropriate method for comparing Bayesian IRT models in PROMs development. An exact Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) approach (Vehtari & Lampinen, 2002) is implemented to assess prior selection for the item discrimination parameter in the IRT model and subject content experts’ bias (in a statistical sense and not to be confused with psychometric bias as in differential item functioning) toward the estimation of item-to-domain correlations. Results support the utilization of content subject experts’ information in establishing evidence for construct validity when sample size is small. However, the incorporation of subject experts’ content information in the OBID approach can be sensitive to the level of expertise of the recruited experts. More stringent efforts need to be invested in the appropriate selection of subject experts to efficiently use the OBID approach and reduce potential bias during PROMs development. PMID:27667878

A novel method for expediting the development of patient-reported outcome measures and an evaluation across several populations.

PubMed

Garrard, Lili; Price, Larry R; Bott, Marjorie J; Gajewski, Byron J

2016-10-01

Item response theory (IRT) models provide an appropriate alternative to the classical ordinal confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) during the development of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Current literature has identified the assessment of IRT model fit as both challenging and underdeveloped (Sinharay & Johnson, 2003; Sinharay, Johnson, & Stern, 2006). This study evaluates the performance of Ordinal Bayesian Instrument Development (OBID), a Bayesian IRT model with a probit link function approach, through applications in two breast cancer-related instrument development studies. The primary focus is to investigate an appropriate method for comparing Bayesian IRT models in PROMs development. An exact Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) approach (Vehtari & Lampinen, 2002) is implemented to assess prior selection for the item discrimination parameter in the IRT model and subject content experts' bias (in a statistical sense and not to be confused with psychometric bias as in differential item functioning) toward the estimation of item-to-domain correlations. Results support the utilization of content subject experts' information in establishing evidence for construct validity when sample size is small. However, the incorporation of subject experts' content information in the OBID approach can be sensitive to the level of expertise of the recruited experts. More stringent efforts need to be invested in the appropriate selection of subject experts to efficiently use the OBID approach and reduce potential bias during PROMs development.

Multiple tests for wind turbine fault detection and score fusion using two- level multidimensional scaling (MDS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Xiang; Gao, Weihua; Yan, Yanjun; Osadciw, Lisa A.

2010-04-01

Wind is an important renewable energy source. The energy and economic return from building wind farms justify the expensive investments in doing so. However, without an effective monitoring system, underperforming or faulty turbines will cause a huge loss in revenue. Early detection of such failures help prevent these undesired working conditions. We develop three tests on power curve, rotor speed curve, pitch angle curve of individual turbine. In each test, multiple states are defined to distinguish different working conditions, including complete shut-downs, under-performing states, abnormally frequent default states, as well as normal working states. These three tests are combined to reach a final conclusion, which is more effective than any single test. Through extensive data mining of historical data and verification from farm operators, some state combinations are discovered to be strong indicators of spindle failures, lightning strikes, anemometer faults, etc, for fault detection. In each individual test, and in the score fusion of these tests, we apply multidimensional scaling (MDS) to reduce the high dimensional feature space into a 3-dimensional visualization, from which it is easier to discover turbine working information. This approach gains a qualitative understanding of turbine performance status to detect faults, and also provides explanations on what has happened for detailed diagnostics. The state-of-the-art SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) system in industry can only answer the question whether there are abnormal working states, and our evaluation of multiple states in multiple tests is also promising for diagnostics. In the future, these tests can be readily incorporated in a Bayesian network for intelligent analysis and decision support.

Analyzing Human-Landscape Interactions: Tools That Integrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zvoleff, Alex; An, Li

2014-01-01

Humans have transformed much of Earth's land surface, giving rise to loss of biodiversity, climate change, and a host of other environmental issues that are affecting human and biophysical systems in unexpected ways. To confront these problems, environmental managers must consider human and landscape systems in integrated ways. This means making use of data obtained from a broad range of methods (e.g., sensors, surveys), while taking into account new findings from the social and biophysical science literatures. New integrative methods (including data fusion, simulation modeling, and participatory approaches) have emerged in recent years to address these challenges, and to allow analysts to provide information that links qualitative and quantitative elements for policymakers. This paper brings attention to these emergent tools while providing an overview of the tools currently in use for analysis of human-landscape interactions. Analysts are now faced with a staggering array of approaches in the human-landscape literature—in an attempt to bring increased clarity to the field, we identify the relative strengths of each tool, and provide guidance to analysts on the areas to which each tool is best applied. We discuss four broad categories of tools: statistical methods (including survival analysis, multi-level modeling, and Bayesian approaches), GIS and spatial analysis methods, simulation approaches (including cellular automata, agent-based modeling, and participatory modeling), and mixed-method techniques (such as alternative futures modeling and integrated assessment). For each tool, we offer an example from the literature of its application in human-landscape research. Among these tools, participatory approaches are gaining prominence for analysts to make the broadest possible array of information available to researchers, environmental managers, and policymakers. Further development of new approaches of data fusion and integration across sites or disciplines pose an important challenge for future work in integrating human and landscape components.

Development of motor fusion in patients with a history of strabismic amblyopia who are treated part-time with Bangerter foils.

PubMed

Abrams, Michael S; Duncan, Candace L; McMurtrey, Ryan

2011-04-01

To document the development of motor fusion when patients with a history of strabismic amblyopia are treated part-time with Bangerter foils. This was a prospective interventional outcome study of consecutive patients with a history of strabismic amblyopia, horizontal strabismus (only) ≤20(∆), visual acuity of 20/60 or better in the nonfixating eye, and no motor fusion (as indicated by the absence of prism vergence) for 1 year before entry into the study. Subjects wore a 0.1 density Bangerter foil for 3-4 hours daily. Data on visual acuity, alignment, and motor fusion status were collected for a minimum of 2 years. Patients with motor fusion were then followed for a minimum of 18 months to assess the stability of their motor fusion status after the Bangerter foil was discontinued. Of the 46 patients meeting entry criteria (mean age, 5.3 ± 1.7 years) who completed follow-up, 28 (61%) developed motor fusion. Motor fusion was retained in all 17 patients who were followed after their foils were discontinued for a mean of 13.3 months. A child's motor fusion status is generally believed to be established during an early formative period of visual development. The development of motor fusion in many of our patients during the course of part-time Bangerter foil treatment suggests that improvements in motor fusion status can occur at a later age than previously believed. Copyright © 2011 American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2016-05-01

Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert elicitation methodology is developed and applied to the real-world test case in order to provide a road map for the use of fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater modeling applications.

Background: Energy's holy grail. [The quest for controlled fusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This article presents a brief history of the pursuit and development of fusion as a power source. Starting with the 1950s through the present, the research efforts of the US and other countries is highlighted, including a chronology of hey developments. Other topics discussed include cold fusion and magnetic versus inertial fusion issues.

Bayesian techniques for analyzing group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision-makers.

PubMed

Steingroever, Helen; Pachur, Thorsten; Šmíra, Martin; Lee, Michael D

2018-06-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is one of the most popular experimental paradigms for comparing complex decision-making across groups. Most commonly, IGT behavior is analyzed using frequentist tests to compare performance across groups, and to compare inferred parameters of cognitive models developed for the IGT. Here, we present a Bayesian alternative based on Bayesian repeated-measures ANOVA for comparing performance, and a suite of three complementary model-based methods for assessing the cognitive processes underlying IGT performance. The three model-based methods involve Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation, Bayes factor model comparison, and Bayesian latent-mixture modeling. We illustrate these Bayesian methods by applying them to test the extent to which differences in intuitive versus deliberate decision style are associated with differences in IGT performance. The results show that intuitive and deliberate decision-makers behave similarly on the IGT, and the modeling analyses consistently suggest that both groups of decision-makers rely on similar cognitive processes. Our results challenge the notion that individual differences in intuitive and deliberate decision styles have a broad impact on decision-making. They also highlight the advantages of Bayesian methods, especially their ability to quantify evidence in favor of the null hypothesis, and that they allow model-based analyses to incorporate hierarchical and latent-mixture structures.

Invited commentary: Lost in estimation--searching for alternatives to markov chains to fit complex Bayesian models.

PubMed

Molitor, John

2012-03-01

Bayesian methods have seen an increase in popularity in a wide variety of scientific fields, including epidemiology. One of the main reasons for their widespread application is the power of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques generally used to fit these models. As a result, researchers often implicitly associate Bayesian models with MCMC estimation procedures. However, Bayesian models do not always require Markov-chain-based methods for parameter estimation. This is important, as MCMC estimation methods, while generally quite powerful, are complex and computationally expensive and suffer from convergence problems related to the manner in which they generate correlated samples used to estimate probability distributions for parameters of interest. In this issue of the Journal, Cole et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2012;175(5):368-375) present an interesting paper that discusses non-Markov-chain-based approaches to fitting Bayesian models. These methods, though limited, can overcome some of the problems associated with MCMC techniques and promise to provide simpler approaches to fitting Bayesian models. Applied researchers will find these estimation approaches intuitively appealing and will gain a deeper understanding of Bayesian models through their use. However, readers should be aware that other non-Markov-chain-based methods are currently in active development and have been widely published in other fields.

Evaluation of calibration efficacy under different levels of uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Heo, Yeonsook; Graziano, Diane J.; Guzowski, Leah; ...

2014-06-10

This study examines how calibration performs under different levels of uncertainty in model input data. It specifically assesses the efficacy of Bayesian calibration to enhance the reliability of EnergyPlus model predictions. A Bayesian approach can be used to update uncertain values of parameters, given measured energy-use data, and to quantify the associated uncertainty.We assess the efficacy of Bayesian calibration under a controlled virtual-reality setup, which enables rigorous validation of the accuracy of calibration results in terms of both calibrated parameter values and model predictions. Case studies demonstrate the performance of Bayesian calibration of base models developed from audit data withmore » differing levels of detail in building design, usage, and operation.« less

Bayesian methods for characterizing unknown parameters of material models

DOE PAGES

Emery, J. M.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Field Jr., R. V.

2016-02-04

A Bayesian framework is developed for characterizing the unknown parameters of probabilistic models for material properties. In this framework, the unknown parameters are viewed as random and described by their posterior distributions obtained from prior information and measurements of quantities of interest that are observable and depend on the unknown parameters. The proposed Bayesian method is applied to characterize an unknown spatial correlation of the conductivity field in the definition of a stochastic transport equation and to solve this equation by Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic reduced order models (SROMs). As a result, the Bayesian method is also employed tomore » characterize unknown parameters of material properties for laser welds from measurements of peak forces sustained by these welds.« less

Bayesian methods for characterizing unknown parameters of material models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emery, J. M.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Field Jr., R. V.

A Bayesian framework is developed for characterizing the unknown parameters of probabilistic models for material properties. In this framework, the unknown parameters are viewed as random and described by their posterior distributions obtained from prior information and measurements of quantities of interest that are observable and depend on the unknown parameters. The proposed Bayesian method is applied to characterize an unknown spatial correlation of the conductivity field in the definition of a stochastic transport equation and to solve this equation by Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic reduced order models (SROMs). As a result, the Bayesian method is also employed tomore » characterize unknown parameters of material properties for laser welds from measurements of peak forces sustained by these welds.« less

HARMONIZATION OF HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL HEALTH ASSESSMENT: DEVELOPMENT OF BAYESIAN UPDATING TECHNIQUES TO INCORPORATE MECHANISTIC INFORMATION ACROSS SPECIES

EPA Science Inventory

Bayesian statistical techniques have proven useful in clinical and environmental epidemiological applications to evaluate and integrate available information, and in regulatory applications such as the National Ambient Air Quality Assessment for Nitrogen Oxides. A recent special...

Classification Accuracy Increase Using Multisensor Data Fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarau, A.; Palubinskas, G.; Reinartz, P.

2011-09-01

The practical use of very high resolution visible and near-infrared (VNIR) data is still growing (IKONOS, Quickbird, GeoEye-1, etc.) but for classification purposes the number of bands is limited in comparison to full spectral imaging. These limitations may lead to the confusion of materials such as different roofs, pavements, roads, etc. and therefore may provide wrong interpretation and use of classification products. Employment of hyperspectral data is another solution, but their low spatial resolution (comparing to multispectral data) restrict their usage for many applications. Another improvement can be achieved by fusion approaches of multisensory data since this may increase the quality of scene classification. Integration of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical data is widely performed for automatic classification, interpretation, and change detection. In this paper we present an approach for very high resolution SAR and multispectral data fusion for automatic classification in urban areas. Single polarization TerraSAR-X (SpotLight mode) and multispectral data are integrated using the INFOFUSE framework, consisting of feature extraction (information fission), unsupervised clustering (data representation on a finite domain and dimensionality reduction), and data aggregation (Bayesian or neural network). This framework allows a relevant way of multisource data combination following consensus theory. The classification is not influenced by the limitations of dimensionality, and the calculation complexity primarily depends on the step of dimensionality reduction. Fusion of single polarization TerraSAR-X, WorldView-2 (VNIR or full set), and Digital Surface Model (DSM) data allow for different types of urban objects to be classified into predefined classes of interest with increased accuracy. The comparison to classification results of WorldView-2 multispectral data (8 spectral bands) is provided and the numerical evaluation of the method in comparison to other established methods illustrates the advantage in the classification accuracy for many classes such as buildings, low vegetation, sport objects, forest, roads, rail roads, etc.

Characterization of fusion genes and the significantly expressed fusion isoforms in breast cancer by hybrid sequencing

PubMed Central

Weirather, Jason L.; Afshar, Pegah Tootoonchi; Clark, Tyson A.; Tseng, Elizabeth; Powers, Linda S.; Underwood, Jason G.; Zabner, Joseph; Korlach, Jonas; Wong, Wing Hung; Au, Kin Fai

2015-01-01

We developed an innovative hybrid sequencing approach, IDP-fusion, to detect fusion genes, determine fusion sites and identify and quantify fusion isoforms. IDP-fusion is the first method to study gene fusion events by integrating Third Generation Sequencing long reads and Second Generation Sequencing short reads. We applied IDP-fusion to PacBio data and Illumina data from the MCF-7 breast cancer cells. Compared with the existing tools, IDP-fusion detects fusion genes at higher precision and a very low false positive rate. The results show that IDP-fusion will be useful for unraveling the complexity of multiple fusion splices and fusion isoforms within tumorigenesis-relevant fusion genes. PMID:26040699

Development of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm in the Bayesian mixture modeling for microarray data in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti, Ani Budi; Iriawan, Nur; Irhamah, Kuswanto, Heri

2017-12-01

In the Bayesian mixture modeling requires stages the identification number of the most appropriate mixture components thus obtained mixture models fit the data through data driven concept. Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) is a combination of the reversible jump (RJ) concept and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) concept used by some researchers to solve the problem of identifying the number of mixture components which are not known with certainty number. In its application, RJMCMC using the concept of the birth/death and the split-merge with six types of movement, that are w updating, θ updating, z updating, hyperparameter β updating, split-merge for components and birth/death from blank components. The development of the RJMCMC algorithm needs to be done according to the observed case. The purpose of this study is to know the performance of RJMCMC algorithm development in identifying the number of mixture components which are not known with certainty number in the Bayesian mixture modeling for microarray data in Indonesia. The results of this study represent that the concept RJMCMC algorithm development able to properly identify the number of mixture components in the Bayesian normal mixture model wherein the component mixture in the case of microarray data in Indonesia is not known for certain number.

Task toward a Realization of Commercial Tokamak Fusion Plants in 2050 -The Role of ITER and the Succeeding Developments- 5.Challenge to Innovative Technologies and the Expected Market Appeal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobita, Kenji; Konishi, Satoshi; Tokimatsu, Koji; Nishio, Satoshi; Hiwatari, Ryoji

This section describes the future of fusion energy in terms of its impact on the global energy supply and global warming mitigation, the possible entry scenarios of fusion into future energy market, and innovative technologies for deploying and expanding fusion's share in the market. Section 5.1 shows that fusion energy can contribute to the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration if fusion is introduced into the future energy market at a competitive price. Considerations regarding fusion's entry scenarios into the energy market are presented in Sec. 5.2, suggesting that fusion should replace fossil energy sources and thus contribute to global warming mitigation. In this sense, first generation fusion power plants should be a viable energy source with global appeal and be so attractive as to be employed in developing countries rather than in developed countries. Favorable factors lending to this purpose are fusion's stability as a power source, and its security, safety, and environmental frendliness as well as its cost-of-electricity. The requirements for core plasma to expand the share of fusion in the market in the latter half of this century are given in Sec.5.3, pointing out the importance of high beta access with low aspect ratio and plasma profile control. From this same point of view, innovative fusion technologies worthy of further development are commented on in Sec. 5.4, addressing the high temperature blanket, hydrogen production, high temperature superconductors, and hot cell maintenance.

Bayesian analysis of non-homogeneous Markov chains: application to mental health data.

PubMed

Sung, Minje; Soyer, Refik; Nhan, Nguyen

2007-07-10

In this paper we present a formal treatment of non-homogeneous Markov chains by introducing a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Our work is motivated by the analysis of correlated categorical data which arise in assessment of psychiatric treatment programs. In our development, we introduce a Markovian structure to describe the non-homogeneity of transition patterns. In doing so, we introduce a logistic regression set-up for Markov chains and incorporate covariates in our model. We present a Bayesian model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and develop inference procedures to address issues encountered in the analyses of data from psychiatric treatment programs. Our model and inference procedures are implemented to some real data from a psychiatric treatment study. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fusion Safety Program annual report, fiscal year 1994

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longhurst, Glen R.; Cadwallader, Lee C.; Dolan, Thomas J.; Herring, J. Stephen; McCarthy, Kathryn A.; Merrill, Brad J.; Motloch, Chester C.; Petti, David A.

1995-03-01

This report summarizes the major activities of the Fusion Safety Program in fiscal year 1994. The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) is the designated lead laboratory and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company is the prime contractor for this program. The Fusion Safety Program was initiated in 1979. Activities are conducted at the INEL, at other DOE laboratories, and at other institutions, including the University of Wisconsin. The technical areas covered in this report include tritium safety, beryllium safety, chemical reactions and activation product release, safety aspects of fusion magnet systems, plasma disruptions, risk assessment failure rate data base development, and thermalhydraulics code development and their application to fusion safety issues. Much of this work has been done in support of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). Also included in the report are summaries of the safety and environmental studies performed by the Fusion Safety Program for the Tokamak Physics Experiment and the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor and of the technical support for commercial fusion facility conceptual design studies. A major activity this year has been work to develop a DOE Technical Standard for the safety of fusion test facilities.

Bayesian randomized clinical trials: From fixed to adaptive design.

PubMed

Yin, Guosheng; Lam, Chi Kin; Shi, Haolun

2017-08-01

Randomized controlled studies are the gold standard for phase III clinical trials. Using α-spending functions to control the overall type I error rate, group sequential methods are well established and have been dominating phase III studies. Bayesian randomized design, on the other hand, can be viewed as a complement instead of competitive approach to the frequentist methods. For the fixed Bayesian design, the hypothesis testing can be cast in the posterior probability or Bayes factor framework, which has a direct link to the frequentist type I error rate. Bayesian group sequential design relies upon Bayesian decision-theoretic approaches based on backward induction, which is often computationally intensive. Compared with the frequentist approaches, Bayesian methods have several advantages. The posterior predictive probability serves as a useful and convenient tool for trial monitoring, and can be updated at any time as the data accrue during the trial. The Bayesian decision-theoretic framework possesses a direct link to the decision making in the practical setting, and can be modeled more realistically to reflect the actual cost-benefit analysis during the drug development process. Other merits include the possibility of hierarchical modeling and the use of informative priors, which would lead to a more comprehensive utilization of information from both historical and longitudinal data. From fixed to adaptive design, we focus on Bayesian randomized controlled clinical trials and make extensive comparisons with frequentist counterparts through numerical studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

2009-01-01

This CD contains files that support the talk (see CASI ID 20100021404). There are 24 models that relate to the ADAPT system and 1 Excel worksheet. In the paper an investigation into the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems is described. The high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems are described in the talk. The data in the CD are the models of the 24 different power systems.

Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

2014-01-01

This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

Bayesian Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berliner, M.

2017-12-01

Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.

Metis: A Pure Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference Library

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bates, Cameron Russell; Mckigney, Edward Allen

The use of Bayesian inference in data analysis has become the standard for large scienti c experiments [1, 2]. The Monte Carlo Codes Group(XCP-3) at Los Alamos has developed a simple set of algorithms currently implemented in C++ and Python to easily perform at-prior Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian inference with pure Metropolis sampling. These implementations are designed to be user friendly and extensible for customization based on speci c application requirements. This document describes the algorithmic choices made and presents two use cases.

Fusion Studies in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Yuichi

2016-05-01

A new strategic energy plan decided by the Japanese Cabinet in 2014 strongly supports the steady promotion of nuclear fusion development activities, including the ITER project and the Broader Approach activities from the long-term viewpoint. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) in Japan formulated the Third Phase Basic Program so as to promote an experimental fusion reactor project. In 2005 AEC has reviewed this Program, and discussed on selection and concentration among many projects of fusion reactor development. In addition to the promotion of ITER project, advanced tokamak research by JT-60SA, helical plasma experiment by LHD, FIREX project in laser fusion research and fusion engineering by IFMIF were highly prioritized. Although the basic concept is quite different between tokamak, helical and laser fusion researches, there exist a lot of common features such as plasma physics on 3-D magnetic geometry, high power heat load on plasma facing component and so on. Therefore, a synergetic scenario on fusion reactor development among various plasma confinement concepts would be important.

MUMPS Based Integration of Disparate Computer-Assisted Medical Diagnosis Modules

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-12

modules use a Bayesian approach, while the Opthalmology module uses a Rule Based approach. In the current effort, MUMPS is used to develop an...Abdominal and Chest Pain modules use a Bayesian approach, while the Opthalmology module uses a Rule Based approach. In the current effort, MUMPS is used

A Robust Bayesian Approach for Structural Equation Models with Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum; Xia, Ye-Mao

2008-01-01

In this paper, normal/independent distributions, including but not limited to the multivariate t distribution, the multivariate contaminated distribution, and the multivariate slash distribution, are used to develop a robust Bayesian approach for analyzing structural equation models with complete or missing data. In the context of a nonlinear…

Hierarchical Bayesian Models of Subtask Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anglim, Jeromy; Wynton, Sarah K. A.

2015-01-01

The current study used Bayesian hierarchical methods to challenge and extend previous work on subtask learning consistency. A general model of individual-level subtask learning was proposed focusing on power and exponential functions with constraints to test for inconsistency. To study subtask learning, we developed a novel computer-based booking…

Evaluating Great Lakes bald eagle nesting habitat with Bayesian inference

Treesearch

Teryl G. Grubb; William W. Bowerman; Allen J. Bath; John P. Giesy; D. V. Chip Weseloh

2003-01-01

Bayesian inference facilitated structured interpretation of a nonreplicated, experience-based survey of potential nesting habitat for bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) along the five Great Lakes shorelines. We developed a pattern recognition (PATREC) model of our aerial search image with six habitat attributes: (a) tree cover, (b) proximity and...

Bayesian Adaptive Lasso for Ordinal Regression with Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feng, Xiang-Nan; Wu, Hao-Tian; Song, Xin-Yuan

2017-01-01

We consider an ordinal regression model with latent variables to investigate the effects of observable and latent explanatory variables on the ordinal responses of interest. Each latent variable is characterized by correlated observed variables through a confirmatory factor analysis model. We develop a Bayesian adaptive lasso procedure to conduct…

Commercial objectives, technology transfer, and systems analysis for fusion power development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, Stephen O.

1988-09-01

Fusion is an inexhaustible source of energy that has the potential for economic commercial applications with excellent safety and environmental characteristics. The primary focus for the fusion energy development program is the generation of central station electricity. Fusion has the potential, however, for many other applications. The fact that a large fraction of the energy released in a DT fusion reaction is carried by high energy neutrons suggests potentially unique applications. In addition, fusion R and D will lead to new products and new markets. Each fusion application must meet certain standards of economic and safety and environmental attractiveness. For this reason, economics on the one hand, and safety and environment and licensing on the other, are the two primary criteria for setting long range commercial fusion objectives. A major function of systems analysis is to evaluate the potential of fusion against these objectives and to help guide the fusion R and D program toward practical applications. The transfer of fusion technology and skills from the national labs and universities to industry is the key to achieving the long range objective of commercial fusion applications.

Commercial objectives, technology transfer, and systems analysis for fusion power development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, Stephen O.

1988-01-01

Fusion is an inexhaustible source of energy that has the potential for economic commercial applications with excellent safety and environmental characteristics. The primary focus for the fusion energy development program is the generation of central station electricity. Fusion has the potential, however, for many other applications. The fact that a large fraction of the energy released in a DT fusion reaction is carried by high energy neutrons suggests potentially unique applications. In addition, fusion R and D will lead to new products and new markets. Each fusion application must meet certain standards of economic and safety and environmental attractiveness. For this reason, economics on the one hand, and safety and environment and licensing on the other, are the two primary criteria for setting long range commercial fusion objectives. A major function of systems analysis is to evaluate the potential of fusion against these objectives and to help guide the fusion R and D program toward practical applications. The transfer of fusion technology and skills from the national labs and universities to industry is the key to achieving the long range objective of commercial fusion applications.

Revisions to the JDL data fusion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinberg, Alan N.; Bowman, Christopher L.; White, Franklin E.

1999-03-01

The Data Fusion Model maintained by the Joint Directors of Laboratories (JDL) Data Fusion Group is the most widely-used method for categorizing data fusion-related functions. This paper discusses the current effort to revise the expand this model to facilitate the cost-effective development, acquisition, integration and operation of multi- sensor/multi-source systems. Data fusion involves combining information - in the broadest sense - to estimate or predict the state of some aspect of the universe. These may be represented in terms of attributive and relational states. If the job is to estimate the state of a people, it can be useful to include consideration of informational and perceptual states in addition to the physical state. Developing cost-effective multi-source information systems requires a method for specifying data fusion processing and control functions, interfaces, and associate databases. The lack of common engineering standards for data fusion systems has been a major impediment to integration and re-use of available technology: current developments do not lend themselves to objective evaluation, comparison or re-use. This paper reports on proposed revisions and expansions of the JDL Data FUsion model to remedy some of these deficiencies. This involves broadening the functional model and related taxonomy beyond the original military focus, and integrating the Data Fusion Tree Architecture model for system description, design and development.

Chimera: a Bioconductor package for secondary analysis of fusion products.

PubMed

Beccuti, Marco; Carrara, Matteo; Cordero, Francesca; Lazzarato, Fulvio; Donatelli, Susanna; Nadalin, Francesca; Policriti, Alberto; Calogero, Raffaele A

2014-12-15

Chimera is a Bioconductor package that organizes, annotates, analyses and validates fusions reported by different fusion detection tools; current implementation can deal with output from bellerophontes, chimeraScan, deFuse, fusionCatcher, FusionFinder, FusionHunter, FusionMap, mapSplice, Rsubread, tophat-fusion and STAR. The core of Chimera is a fusion data structure that can store fusion events detected with any of the aforementioned tools. Fusions are then easily manipulated with standard R functions or through the set of functionalities specifically developed in Chimera with the aim of supporting the user in managing fusions and discriminating false-positive results. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

Estimating the melting point, entropy of fusion, and enthalpy of fusion of organic compounds via SPARC.

PubMed

Whiteside, T S; Hilal, S H; Brenner, A; Carreira, L A

2016-08-01

The entropy of fusion, enthalpy of fusion, and melting point of organic compounds can be estimated through three models developed using the SPARC (SPARC Performs Automated Reasoning in Chemistry) platform. The entropy of fusion is modelled through a combination of interaction terms and physical descriptors. The enthalpy of fusion is modelled as a function of the entropy of fusion, boiling point, and flexibility of the molecule. The melting point model is the enthalpy of fusion divided by the entropy of fusion. These models were developed in part to improve SPARC's vapour pressure and solubility models. These models have been tested on 904 unique compounds. The entropy model has a RMS of 12.5 J mol(-1) K(-1). The enthalpy model has a RMS of 4.87 kJ mol(-1). The melting point model has a RMS of 54.4°C.

An Illustrative Guide to the Minerva Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flom, Erik; Leonard, Patrick; Hoeffel, Udo; Kwak, Sehyun; Pavone, Andrea; Svensson, Jakob; Krychowiak, Maciej; Wendelstein 7-X Team Collaboration

2017-10-01

Modern phsyics experiments require tracking and modelling data and their associated uncertainties on a large scale, as well as the combined implementation of multiple independent data streams for sophisticated modelling and analysis. The Minerva Framework offers a centralized, user-friendly method of large-scale physics modelling and scientific inference. Currently used by teams at multiple large-scale fusion experiments including the Joint European Torus (JET) and Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X), the Minerva framework provides a forward-model friendly architecture for developing and implementing models for large-scale experiments. One aspect of the framework involves so-called data sources, which are nodes in the graphical model. These nodes are supplied with engineering and physics parameters. When end-user level code calls a node, it is checked network-wide against its dependent nodes for changes since its last implementation and returns version-specific data. Here, a filterscope data node is used as an illustrative example of the Minerva Framework's data management structure and its further application to Bayesian modelling of complex systems. This work has been carried out within the framework of the EUROfusion Consortium and has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014-2018 under Grant Agreement No. 633053.

Objective measures, sensors and computational techniques for stress recognition and classification: a survey.

PubMed

Sharma, Nandita; Gedeon, Tom

2012-12-01

Stress is a major growing concern in our day and age adversely impacting both individuals and society. Stress research has a wide range of benefits from improving personal operations, learning, and increasing work productivity to benefiting society - making it an interesting and socially beneficial area of research. This survey reviews sensors that have been used to measure stress and investigates techniques for modelling stress. It discusses non-invasive and unobtrusive sensors for measuring computed stress, a term we coin in the paper. Sensors that do not impede everyday activities that could be used by those who would like to monitor stress levels on a regular basis (e.g. vehicle drivers, patients with illnesses linked to stress) is the focus of the discussion. Computational techniques have the capacity to determine optimal sensor fusion and automate data analysis for stress recognition and classification. Several computational techniques have been developed to model stress based on techniques such as Bayesian networks, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines, which this survey investigates. The survey concludes with a summary and provides possible directions for further computational stress research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Progresses with Net-VISA on Global Infrasound Association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mialle, Pierrick; Arora, Nimar

2017-04-01

Global Infrasound Association algorithms are an important area of active development at the International Data Centre (IDC). These algorithms play an important part of the automatic processing system for verification technologies. A key focus at the IDC is to enhance association and signal characterization methods by incorporating the identification of signals of interest and the optimization of the network detection threshold. The overall objective is to reduce the number of associated infrasound arrivals that are rejected from the automatic bulletins when generating the Reviewed Event Bulletins (REB), and hence reduce IDC analyst workload. Despite good accuracy by the IDC categorization, a number of signal detections due to clutter sources such as microbaroms or surf are built into events. In this work we aim to optimize the association criteria based on knowledge acquired by IDC in the last 6 years, and focus on the specificity of seismo-acoustic events. The resulting work has been incorporated into NETVISA [1], a Bayesian approach to network processing. The model that we propose is a fusion of seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound processing built on a unified probabilistic framework. References: [1] NETVISA: Network Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis. N. S. Arora, S. Russell, and E. Sudderth. BSSA 2013

Progresses with Net-VISA on Global Infrasound Association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mialle, P.; Arora, N. S.

2016-12-01

Global Infrasound Association algorithms are an important area of active development at the International Data Centre (IDC). These algorithms play an important part of the automatic processing system for verification technologies. A key focus at the IDC is to enhance association and signal characterization methods by incorporating the identification of signals of interest and the optimization of the network detection threshold. The overall objective is to reduce the number of associated infrasound arrivals that are rejected from the automatic bulletins when generating the Reviewed Event Bulletins (REB), and hence reduce IDC analyst workload. Despite good accuracy by the IDC categorization, a number of signal detections due to clutter sources such as microbaroms or surf are built into events. In this work we aim to optimize the association criteria based on knowledge acquired by IDC in the last 6 years, and focus on the specificity of seismo-acoustic events. The resulting work has been incorporated into NETVISA [1], a Bayesian approach to network processing. The model that we propose is a fusion of seismic, hydroacoustic and infrasound processing built on a unified probabilistic framework. References: [1] NETVISA: Network Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis. N. S. Arora, S. Russell, and E. Sudderth. BSSA 2013

Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

2013-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was tomore » establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.« less

Improved inference in Bayesian segmentation using Monte Carlo sampling: application to hippocampal subfield volumetry.

PubMed

Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Sabuncu, Mert Rory; Van Leemput, Koen

2013-10-01

Many segmentation algorithms in medical image analysis use Bayesian modeling to augment local image appearance with prior anatomical knowledge. Such methods often contain a large number of free parameters that are first estimated and then kept fixed during the actual segmentation process. However, a faithful Bayesian analysis would marginalize over such parameters, accounting for their uncertainty by considering all possible values they may take. Here we propose to incorporate this uncertainty into Bayesian segmentation methods in order to improve the inference process. In particular, we approximate the required marginalization over model parameters using computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate the proposed approach using a recently developed Bayesian method for the segmentation of hippocampal subfields in brain MRI scans, showing a significant improvement in an Alzheimer's disease classification task. As an additional benefit, the technique also allows one to compute informative "error bars" on the volume estimates of individual structures. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved Inference in Bayesian Segmentation Using Monte Carlo Sampling: Application to Hippocampal Subfield Volumetry

PubMed Central

Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Sabuncu, Mert Rory; Leemput, Koen Van

2013-01-01

Many segmentation algorithms in medical image analysis use Bayesian modeling to augment local image appearance with prior anatomical knowledge. Such methods often contain a large number of free parameters that are first estimated and then kept fixed during the actual segmentation process. However, a faithful Bayesian analysis would marginalize over such parameters, accounting for their uncertainty by considering all possible values they may take. Here we propose to incorporate this uncertainty into Bayesian segmentation methods in order to improve the inference process. In particular, we approximate the required marginalization over model parameters using computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate the proposed approach using a recently developed Bayesian method for the segmentation of hippocampal subfields in brain MRI scans, showing a significant improvement in an Alzheimer’s disease classification task. As an additional benefit, the technique also allows one to compute informative “error bars” on the volume estimates of individual structures. PMID:23773521

Bayesian Cue Integration as a Developmental Outcome of Reward Mediated Learning

PubMed Central

Weisswange, Thomas H.; Rothkopf, Constantin A.; Rodemann, Tobias; Triesch, Jochen

2011-01-01

Average human behavior in cue combination tasks is well predicted by Bayesian inference models. As this capability is acquired over developmental timescales, the question arises, how it is learned. Here we investigated whether reward dependent learning, that is well established at the computational, behavioral, and neuronal levels, could contribute to this development. It is shown that a model free reinforcement learning algorithm can indeed learn to do cue integration, i.e. weight uncertain cues according to their respective reliabilities and even do so if reliabilities are changing. We also consider the case of causal inference where multimodal signals can originate from one or multiple separate objects and should not always be integrated. In this case, the learner is shown to develop a behavior that is closest to Bayesian model averaging. We conclude that reward mediated learning could be a driving force for the development of cue integration and causal inference. PMID:21750717

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Population forecasts for Bangladesh, using a Bayesian methodology.

PubMed

Mahsin, Md; Hossain, Syed Shahadat

2012-12-01

Population projection for many developing countries could be quite a challenging task for the demographers mostly due to lack of availability of enough reliable data. The objective of this paper is to present an overview of the existing methods for population forecasting and to propose an alternative based on the Bayesian statistics, combining the formality of inference. The analysis has been made using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for Bayesian methodology available with the software WinBUGS. Convergence diagnostic techniques available with the WinBUGS software have been applied to ensure the convergence of the chains necessary for the implementation of MCMC. The Bayesian approach allows for the use of observed data and expert judgements by means of appropriate priors, and a more realistic population forecasts, along with associated uncertainty, has been possible.

Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system: a Bayesian fusion of century-scale observations with a simple model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, Nathan M.; Keller, Klaus

2010-10-01

How has the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) varied over the past centuries and what is the risk of an anthropogenic AMOC collapse? We report probabilistic projections of the future climate which improve on previous AMOC projection studies by (i) greatly expanding the considered observational constraints and (ii) carefully sampling the tail areas of the parameter probability distribution function (pdf). We use a Bayesian inversion to constrain a simple model of the coupled climate, carbon cycle and AMOC systems using observations to derive multicentury hindcasts and projections. Our hindcasts show considerable skill in representing the observational constraints. We show that robust AMOC risk estimates can require carefully sampling the parameter pdfs. We find a low probability of experiencing an AMOC collapse within the 21st century for a business-as-usual emissions scenario. The probability of experiencing an AMOC collapse within two centuries is 1/10. The probability of crossing a forcing threshold and triggering a future AMOC collapse (by 2300) is approximately 1/30 in the 21st century and over 1/3 in the 22nd. Given the simplicity of the model structure and uncertainty in the forcing assumptions, our analysis should be considered a proof of concept and the quantitative conclusions subject to severe caveats.

Bayesian Networks Improve Causal Environmental Assessments for Evidence-Based Policy.

PubMed

Carriger, John F; Barron, Mace G; Newman, Michael C

2016-12-20

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on valued ecological resources. These aspects are demonstrated through hypothetical problem scenarios that explore some major benefits of using Bayesian networks for reasoning and making inferences in evidence-based policy.

Characterization of fusion genes and the significantly expressed fusion isoforms in breast cancer by hybrid sequencing.

PubMed

Weirather, Jason L; Afshar, Pegah Tootoonchi; Clark, Tyson A; Tseng, Elizabeth; Powers, Linda S; Underwood, Jason G; Zabner, Joseph; Korlach, Jonas; Wong, Wing Hung; Au, Kin Fai

2015-10-15

We developed an innovative hybrid sequencing approach, IDP-fusion, to detect fusion genes, determine fusion sites and identify and quantify fusion isoforms. IDP-fusion is the first method to study gene fusion events by integrating Third Generation Sequencing long reads and Second Generation Sequencing short reads. We applied IDP-fusion to PacBio data and Illumina data from the MCF-7 breast cancer cells. Compared with the existing tools, IDP-fusion detects fusion genes at higher precision and a very low false positive rate. The results show that IDP-fusion will be useful for unraveling the complexity of multiple fusion splices and fusion isoforms within tumorigenesis-relevant fusion genes. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

New High Gain Target Design for a Laser Fusion Power Plant

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-06-07

target with a minimum energy gain, about 100. Demonstration of ignition or low gain is only important for fusion energy if it leads into a target concept...nonlinear saturation of these instabilities. Our approach is to try to avoid them. 4. A Development Path to Fusion Energy The laser and target concept...on the exact date required to develop fusion energy , it would be worthwhile for a power plant development program to provide enough time and funds

Fusion breeder

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moir, R.W.

1982-02-22

The fusion breeder is a fusion reactor designed with special blankets to maximize the transmutation by 14 MeV neutrons of uranium-238 to plutonium or thorium to uranium-233 for use as a fuel for fission reactors. Breeding fissile fuels has not been a goal of the US fusion energy program. This paper suggests it is time for a policy change to make the fusion breeder a goal of the US fusion program and the US nuclear energy program. The purpose of this paper is to suggest this policy change be made and tell why it should be made, and to outlinemore » specific research and development goals so that the fusion breeder will be developed in time to meet fissile fuel needs.« less

Fusion breeder

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moir, R.W.

1982-04-20

The fusion breeder is a fusion reactor designed with special blankets to maximize the transmutation by 14 MeV neutrons of uranium-238 to plutonium or thorium to uranium-233 for use as a fuel for fission reactors. Breeding fissile fuels has not been a goal of the US fusion energy program. This paper suggests it is time for a policy change to make the fusion breeder a goal of the US fusion program and the US nuclear energy program. The purpose of this paper is to suggest this policy change be made and tell why it should be made, and to outlinemore » specific research and development goals so that the fusion breeder will be developed in time to meet fissile fuel needs.« less

Remodeling of the notochord during development of vertebral fusions in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

PubMed

Ytteborg, Elisabeth; Torgersen, Jacob Seilø; Pedersen, Mona E; Baeverfjord, Grete; Hannesson, Kirsten O; Takle, Harald

2010-12-01

Histological characterization of spinal fusions in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) has demonstrated shape alterations of vertebral body endplates, a reduced intervertebral space, and replacement of intervertebral cells by ectopic bone. However, the significance of the notochord during the fusion process has not been addressed. We have therefore investigated structural and cellular events in the notochord during the development of vertebral fusions. In order to induce vertebral fusions, Atlantic salmon were exposed to elevated temperatures from fertilization until they attained a size of 15g. Based on results from radiography, intermediate and terminal stages of the fusion process were investigated by immunohistochemistry and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Examination of structural extracellular matrix proteins such as Perlecan, Aggrecan, Elastin, and Laminin revealed reduced activity and reorganization at early stages in the pathology. Staining for elastic fibers visualized a thinner elastic membrane surrounding the notochord of developing fusions, and immunohistochemistry for Perlecan showed that the notochordal sheath was stretched during fusion. These findings in the outer notochord correlated with the loss of Aggrecan- and Substance-P-positive signals and the further loss of vacuoles from the chordocytes in the central notochord. At more progressed stages of fusion, chordocytes condensed, and the expression of Aggrecan and Substance P reappeared. The hyperdense regions seem to be of importance for the formation of notochordal tissue into bone. Thus, the remodeling of notochord integrity by reduced elasticity, structural alterations, and cellular changes is probably involved in the development of vertebral fusions.

The Lifecycle of Bayesian Network Models Developed for Multi-Source Signature Assessment of Nuclear Programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gastelum, Zoe N.; White, Amanda M.; Whitney, Paul D.

2013-06-04

The Multi-Source Signatures for Nuclear Programs project, part of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) Signature Discovery Initiative, seeks to computationally capture expert assessment of multi-type information such as text, sensor output, imagery, or audio/video files, to assess nuclear activities through a series of Bayesian network (BN) models. These models incorporate knowledge from a diverse range of information sources in order to help assess a country’s nuclear activities. The models span engineering topic areas, state-level indicators, and facility-specific characteristics. To illustrate the development, calibration, and use of BN models for multi-source assessment, we present a model that predicts a country’s likelihoodmore » to participate in the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. We validate this model by examining the extent to which the model assists non-experts arrive at conclusions similar to those provided by nuclear proliferation experts. We also describe the PNNL-developed software used throughout the lifecycle of the Bayesian network model development.« less

Validation of the thermal challenge problem using Bayesian Belief Networks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McFarland, John; Swiler, Laura Painton

The thermal challenge problem has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories as a testbed for demonstrating various types of validation approaches and prediction methods. This report discusses one particular methodology to assess the validity of a computational model given experimental data. This methodology is based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and can incorporate uncertainty in experimental measurements, in physical quantities, and model uncertainties. The approach uses the prior and posterior distributions of model output to compute a validation metric based on Bayesian hypothesis testing (a Bayes' factor). This report discusses various aspects of the BBN, specifically in the context ofmore » the thermal challenge problem. A BBN is developed for a given set of experimental data in a particular experimental configuration. The development of the BBN and the method for ''solving'' the BBN to develop the posterior distribution of model output through Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling is discussed in detail. The use of the BBN to compute a Bayes' factor is demonstrated.« less

High Level Information Fusion (HLIF) with nested fusion loops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodley, Robert; Gosnell, Michael; Fischer, Amber

2013-05-01

Situation modeling and threat prediction require higher levels of data fusion in order to provide actionable information. Beyond the sensor data and sources the analyst has access to, the use of out-sourced and re-sourced data is becoming common. Through the years, some common frameworks have emerged for dealing with information fusion—perhaps the most ubiquitous being the JDL Data Fusion Group and their initial 4-level data fusion model. Since these initial developments, numerous models of information fusion have emerged, hoping to better capture the human-centric process of data analyses within a machine-centric framework. 21st Century Systems, Inc. has developed Fusion with Uncertainty Reasoning using Nested Assessment Characterizer Elements (FURNACE) to address challenges of high level information fusion and handle bias, ambiguity, and uncertainty (BAU) for Situation Modeling, Threat Modeling, and Threat Prediction. It combines JDL fusion levels with nested fusion loops and state-of-the-art data reasoning. Initial research has shown that FURNACE is able to reduce BAU and improve the fusion process by allowing high level information fusion (HLIF) to affect lower levels without the double counting of information or other biasing issues. The initial FURNACE project was focused on the underlying algorithms to produce a fusion system able to handle BAU and repurposed data in a cohesive manner. FURNACE supports analyst's efforts to develop situation models, threat models, and threat predictions to increase situational awareness of the battlespace. FURNACE will not only revolutionize the military intelligence realm, but also benefit the larger homeland defense, law enforcement, and business intelligence markets.

Modelling the Flow Stress of Alloy 316L using a Multi-Layered Feed Forward Neural Network with Bayesian Regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abiriand Bhekisipho Twala, Olufunminiyi

2017-08-01

In this paper, a multilayer feedforward neural network with Bayesian regularization constitutive model is developed for alloy 316L during high strain rate and high temperature plastic deformation. The input variables are strain rate, temperature and strain while the output value is the flow stress of the material. The results show that the use of Bayesian regularized technique reduces the potential of overfitting and overtraining. The prediction quality of the model is thereby improved. The model predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements. The measurement data used for the network training and model comparison were taken from relevant literature. The developed model is robust as it can be generalized to deformation conditions slightly below or above the training dataset.

A Bayesian Belief Network Approach to Explore Alternative Decisions for Sediment Control and water Storage Capacity at Lago Lucchetti, Puerto Rico

EPA Science Inventory

A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was developed to characterize the effects of sediment accumulation on the water storage capacity of Lago Lucchetti (located in southwest Puerto Rico) and to forecast the life expectancy (usefulness) of the reservoir under different management scena...

Reconstructing Constructivism: Causal Models, Bayesian Learning Mechanisms, and the Theory Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

2012-01-01

We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework…

Bayesian Analysis of Structural Equation Models with Nonlinear Covariates and Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Lee, Sik-Yum

2006-01-01

In this article, we formulate a nonlinear structural equation model (SEM) that can accommodate covariates in the measurement equation and nonlinear terms of covariates and exogenous latent variables in the structural equation. The covariates can come from continuous or discrete distributions. A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze the…

Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis for Unordered Categorical Outcomes with Incomplete Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmid, Christopher H.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Olkin, Ingram

2014-01-01

We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of…

Modeling Associations among Multivariate Longitudinal Categorical Variables in Survey Data: A Semiparametric Bayesian Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tchumtchoua, Sylvie; Dey, Dipak K.

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a semiparametric Bayesian framework for the analysis of associations among multivariate longitudinal categorical variables in high-dimensional data settings. This type of data is frequent, especially in the social and behavioral sciences. A semiparametric hierarchical factor analysis model is developed in which the…

Bayesian Estimation of the Logistic Positive Exponent IRT Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bolfarine, Heleno; Bazan, Jorge Luis

2010-01-01

A Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for the logistic positive exponent (LPE) model proposed by Samejima and for a new skewed Logistic Item Response Theory (IRT) model, named Reflection LPE model. Both models lead to asymmetric item characteristic curves (ICC) and can be appropriate because a symmetric…

A Bayesian Multi-Level Factor Analytic Model of Consumer Price Sensitivities across Categories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duvvuri, Sri Devi; Gruca, Thomas S.

2010-01-01

Identifying price sensitive consumers is an important problem in marketing. We develop a Bayesian multi-level factor analytic model of the covariation among household-level price sensitivities across product categories that are substitutes. Based on a multivariate probit model of category incidence, this framework also allows the researcher to…

Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Price, Larry R.

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the small sample (N = 1, 3, 5, 10, 15) performance of a Bayesian multivariate vector autoregressive (BVAR-SEM) time series model relative to frequentist power and parameter estimation bias. A multivariate autoregressive model was developed based on correlated autoregressive time series vectors of varying…

Monitoring Human Development Goals: A Straightforward (Bayesian) Methodology for Cross-National Indices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abayomi, Kobi; Pizarro, Gonzalo

2013-01-01

We offer a straightforward framework for measurement of progress, across many dimensions, using cross-national social indices, which we classify as linear combinations of multivariate country level data onto a univariate score. We suggest a Bayesian approach which yields probabilistic (confidence type) intervals for the point estimates of country…

Uncovering robust patterns of microRNA co-expression across cancers using Bayesian Relevance Networks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Co-expression networks have long been used as a tool for investigating the molecular circuitry governing biological systems. However, most algorithms for constructing co-expression networks were developed in the microarray era, before high-throughput sequencing—with its unique statistical properties—became the norm for expression measurement. Here we develop Bayesian Relevance Networks, an algorithm that uses Bayesian reasoning about expression levels to account for the differing levels of uncertainty in expression measurements between highly- and lowly-expressed entities, and between samples with different sequencing depths. It combines data from groups of samples (e.g., replicates) to estimate group expression levels and confidence ranges. It then computes uncertainty-moderated estimates of cross-group correlations between entities, and uses permutation testing to assess their statistical significance. Using large scale miRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that our Bayesian update of the classical Relevance Networks algorithm provides improved reproducibility in co-expression estimates and lower false discovery rates in the resulting co-expression networks. Software is available at www.perkinslab.ca. PMID:28817636

Uncovering robust patterns of microRNA co-expression across cancers using Bayesian Relevance Networks.

PubMed

Ramachandran, Parameswaran; Sánchez-Taltavull, Daniel; Perkins, Theodore J

2017-01-01

Co-expression networks have long been used as a tool for investigating the molecular circuitry governing biological systems. However, most algorithms for constructing co-expression networks were developed in the microarray era, before high-throughput sequencing-with its unique statistical properties-became the norm for expression measurement. Here we develop Bayesian Relevance Networks, an algorithm that uses Bayesian reasoning about expression levels to account for the differing levels of uncertainty in expression measurements between highly- and lowly-expressed entities, and between samples with different sequencing depths. It combines data from groups of samples (e.g., replicates) to estimate group expression levels and confidence ranges. It then computes uncertainty-moderated estimates of cross-group correlations between entities, and uses permutation testing to assess their statistical significance. Using large scale miRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that our Bayesian update of the classical Relevance Networks algorithm provides improved reproducibility in co-expression estimates and lower false discovery rates in the resulting co-expression networks. Software is available at www.perkinslab.ca.

Estimating the melting point, entropy of fusion, and enthalpy of fusion of organic compounds via SPARC

EPA Science Inventory

The entropies of fusion, enthalies of fusion, and melting points of organic compounds can be estimated through three models developed using the SPARC (SPARC Performs Automated Reasoning in Chemistry) platform. The entropy of fusion is modeled through a combination of interaction ...

Task toward a Realization of Commercial Tokamak Fusion Plants in 2050 -The Role of ITER and the Succeeding Developments- 4.Technology and Material Research in Fusion Power Plant Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akiba, Masato; Matsui, Hideki; Takatsu, Hideyuki; Konishi, Satoshi

Technical issues regarding the fusion power plant that are required to be developed in the period of ITER construction and operation, both with ITER and with other facilities that complement ITER are described in this section. Three major fields are considered to be important in fusion technology. Section 4.1 summarizes blanket study, and ITER Test Blanket Module (TBM) development that focuses its effort on the first generation power blanket to be installed in DEMO. ITER will be equipped with 6 TBMs which are developed under each party's fusion program. In Japan, the solid breeder using water as a coolant is the primary candidate, and He-cooled pebble bed is the alternative. Other liquid options such as LiPb, Li or molten salt are developed by other parties' initiatives. The Test Blanket Working Group (TBWG) is coordinating these efforts. Japanese universities are investigating advanced concepts and fundamental crosscutting technologies. Section 4.2 introduces material development and particularly, the international irradiation facility, IFMIF. Reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steels are identified as promising candidates for the structural material of the first generation fusion blanket, while and vanadium alloy and SiC/SiC composite are pursued as advanced options. The IFMIF is currently planning the next phase of joint activity, EVEDA (Engineering Validation and Engineering Design Activity) that encompasses construction. Material studies together with the ITER TBM will provide essential technical information for development of the fusion power plant. Other technical issues to be addressed regarding the first generation fusion power plant are summarized in section 4.3. Development of components for ITER made remarkable progress for the major essential technology also necessary for future fusion plants, however many still need further improvements toward power plant. Such areas includes; the divertor, plasma heating/current drive, magnets, tritium, and remote handling. There remain many other technical issues for power plant which require integrated efforts.

Estimating the melting point, entropy of fusion, and enthalpy of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The entropies of fusion, enthalies of fusion, and melting points of organic compounds can be estimated through three models developed using the SPARC (SPARC Performs Automated Reasoning in Chemistry) platform. The entropy of fusion is modeled through a combination of interaction terms and physical descriptors. The enthalpy of fusion is modeled as a function of the entropy of fusion, boiling point, and fexibility of the molecule. The melting point model is the enthlapy of fusion divided by the entropy of fusion. These models were developed in part to improve SPARC's vapor pressure and solubility models. These models have been tested on 904 unique compounds. The entropy model has a RMS of 12.5 J mol-1K-1. The enthalpy model has a RMS of 4.87 kJ mol-1. The melting point model has a RMS of 54.4°C. Published in the journal, SAR and QSAR in Environmental Research

Paramyxovirus Glycoproteins and the Membrane Fusion Process.

PubMed

Aguilar, Hector C; Henderson, Bryce A; Zamora, J Lizbeth; Johnston, Gunner P

2016-09-01

The family Paramyxoviridae includes many viruses that significantly affect human and animal health. An essential step in the paramyxovirus life cycle is viral entry into host cells, mediated by virus-cell membrane fusion. Upon viral entry, infection results in expression of the paramyxoviral glycoproteins on the infected cell surface. This can lead to cell-cell fusion (syncytia formation), often linked to pathogenesis. Thus membrane fusion is essential for both viral entry and cell-cell fusion and an attractive target for therapeutic development. While there are important differences between viral-cell and cell-cell membrane fusion, many aspects are conserved. The paramyxoviruses generally utilize two envelope glycoproteins to orchestrate membrane fusion. Here, we discuss the roles of these glycoproteins in distinct steps of the membrane fusion process. These findings can offer insights into evolutionary relationships among Paramyxoviridae genera and offer future targets for prophylactic and therapeutic development.

Paramyxovirus Glycoproteins and the Membrane Fusion Process

PubMed Central

Aguilar, Hector C.; Henderson, Bryce A.; Zamora, J. Lizbeth; Johnston, Gunner P.

2016-01-01

The family Paramyxoviridae includes many viruses that significantly affect human and animal health. An essential step in the paramyxovirus life cycle is viral entry into host cells, mediated by virus-cell membrane fusion. Upon viral entry, infection results in expression of the paramyxoviral glycoproteins on the infected cell surface. This can lead to cell-cell fusion (syncytia formation), often linked to pathogenesis. Thus membrane fusion is essential for both viral entry and cell-cell fusion and an attractive target for therapeutic development. While there are important differences between viral-cell and cell-cell membrane fusion, many aspects are conserved. The paramyxoviruses generally utilize two envelope glycoproteins to orchestrate membrane fusion. Here, we discuss the roles of these glycoproteins in distinct steps of the membrane fusion process. These findings can offer insights into evolutionary relationships among Paramyxoviridae genera and offer future targets for prophylactic and therapeutic development. PMID:28138419

Bayesian outcome-based strategy classification.

PubMed

Lee, Michael D

2016-03-01

Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014) recently developed a method for making inferences about the decision processes people use in multi-attribute forced choice tasks. Their paper makes a number of worthwhile theoretical and methodological contributions. Theoretically, they provide an insightful psychological motivation for a probabilistic extension of the widely-used "weighted additive" (WADD) model, and show how this model, as well as other important models like "take-the-best" (TTB), can and should be expressed in terms of meaningful priors. Methodologically, they develop an inference approach based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principles that balances both the goodness-of-fit and complexity of the decision models they consider. This paper aims to preserve these useful contributions, but provide a complementary Bayesian approach with some theoretical and methodological advantages. We develop a simple graphical model, implemented in JAGS, that allows for fully Bayesian inferences about which models people use to make decisions. To demonstrate the Bayesian approach, we apply it to the models and data considered by Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014), showing how a prior predictive analysis of the models, and posterior inferences about which models people use and the parameter settings at which they use them, can contribute to our understanding of human decision making.

Spatially constrained Bayesian inversion of frequency- and time-domain electromagnetic data from the Tellus projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiyan, Duygu; Rath, Volker; Delhaye, Robert

2017-04-01

The frequency- and time-domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data collected under the Tellus projects of the Geological Survey of Ireland (GSI) which represent a wealth of information on the multi-dimensional electrical structure of Ireland's near-surface. Our project, which was funded by GSI under the framework of their Short Call Research Programme, aims to develop and implement inverse techniques based on various Bayesian methods for these densely sampled data. We have developed a highly flexible toolbox using Python language for the one-dimensional inversion of AEM data along the flight lines. The computational core is based on an adapted frequency- and time-domain forward modelling core derived from the well-tested open-source code AirBeo, which was developed by the CSIRO (Australia) and the AMIRA consortium. Three different inversion methods have been implemented: (i) Tikhonov-type inversion including optimal regularisation methods (Aster el al., 2012; Zhdanov, 2015), (ii) Bayesian MAP inversion in parameter and data space (e.g. Tarantola, 2005), and (iii) Full Bayesian inversion with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Sambridge and Mosegaard, 2002; Mosegaard and Sambridge, 2002), all including different forms of spatial constraints. The methods have been tested on synthetic and field data. This contribution will introduce the toolbox and present case studies on the AEM data from the Tellus projects.

A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

PubMed

Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

2013-12-01

Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

An integrated Bayesian model for estimating the long-term health effects of air pollution by fusing modelled and measured pollution data: A case study of nitrogen dioxide concentrations in Scotland.

PubMed

Huang, Guowen; Lee, Duncan; Scott, Marian

2015-01-01

The long-term health effects of air pollution can be estimated using a spatio-temporal ecological study, where the disease data are counts of hospital admissions from populations in small areal units at yearly intervals. Spatially representative pollution concentrations for each areal unit are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over grid level concentrations from an atmospheric dispersion model. We propose a novel fusion model for estimating spatially aggregated pollution concentrations using both the modelled and monitored data, and relate these concentrations to respiratory disease in a new study in Scotland between 2007 and 2011. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Towards Seamless Validation of Land Cover Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuprikova, Ekaterina; Liebel, Lukas; Meng, Liqiu

2018-05-01

This article demonstrates the ability of the Bayesian Network analysis for the recognition of uncertainty patterns associated with the fusion of various land cover data sets including GlobeLand30, CORINE (CLC2006, Germany) and land cover data derived from Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) such as Open Street Map (OSM). The results of recognition are expressed as probability and uncertainty maps which can be regarded as a by-product of the GlobeLand30 data. The uncertainty information may guide the quality improvement of GlobeLand30 by involving the ground truth data, information with superior quality, the know-how of experts and the crowd intelligence. Such an endeavor aims to pave a way towards a seamless validation of global land cover data on the one hand and a targeted knowledge discovery in areas with higher uncertainty values on the other hand.

Integrating health economics modeling in the product development cycle of medical devices: a Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Vallejo-Torres, Laura; Steuten, Lotte M G; Buxton, Martin J; Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry

2008-01-01

Medical device companies are under growing pressure to provide health-economic evaluations of their products. Cost-effectiveness analyses are commonly undertaken as a one-off exercise at the late stage of development of new technologies; however, the benefits of an iterative use of economic evaluation during the development process of new products have been acknowledged in the literature. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian methods within health technology assessment has been shown to be of particular value in the dynamic framework of technology appraisal when new information becomes available in the life cycle of technologies. In this study, we set out a methodology to adapt these methods for their application to directly support investment decisions in a commercial setting from early stages of the development of new medical devices. Starting with relatively simple analysis from the very early development phase and proceeding to greater depth of analysis at later stages, a Bayesian approach facilitates the incorporation of all available evidence and would help companies to make better informed choices at each decision point.

Response to FESAC survey, non-fusion connections to Fusion Energy Sciences. Applications of the FES-supported beam and plasma simulation code, Warp

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedman, A.; Grote, D. P.; Vay, J. L.

2015-05-29

The Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee’s subcommittee on non-fusion applications (FESAC NFA) is conducting a survey to obtain information from the fusion community about non-fusion work that has resulted from their DOE-funded fusion research. The subcommittee has requested that members of the community describe recent developments connected to the activities of the DOE Office of Fusion Energy Sciences. Two questions in particular were posed by the subcommittee. This document contains the authors’ responses to those questions.

Fusion for Space Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thio, Y. C. Francis; Schafer, Charles (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

There is little doubt that humans will attempt to explore and develop the solar system in this century. A large amount of energy will be required for accomplishing this. The need for fusion propulsion is discussed. For a propulsion system, there are three important thermodynamical attributes: (1) The absolute amount of energy available, (2) the propellant exhaust velocity, and (3) the jet power per unit mass of the propulsion system (specific power). For human exploration and development of the solar system, propellant exhaust velocity in excess of 100 km/s and specific power in excess of 10 kW/kg are required. Chemical combustion can produce exhaust velocity up to about 5 km/s. Nuclear fission processes typically result in producing energy in the form of heat that needs to be manipulated at temperatures limited by materials to about 2,800 K. Using the energy to heat a hydrogen propellant increases the exhaust velocity by only a factor of about two. Alternatively the energy can be converted into electricity which is then used to accelerate particles to high exhaust velocity. The necessary power conversion and conditioning equipment, however, increases the mass of the propulsion system for the same jet power by more than two orders of magnitude over chemical system, thus greatly limits the thrust-to-weight ratio attainable. The principal advantage of the fission process is that its development is relatively mature and is available right now. If fusion can be developed, fusion appears to have the best of all worlds in terms of propulsion - it can provide the absolute amount, the propellant exhaust velocity, and the high specific jet power. An intermediate step towards pure fusion propulsion is a bimodal system in which a fission reactor is used to provide some of the energy to drive a fusion propulsion unit. The technical issues related to fusion for space propulsion are discussed. The technical priorities for developing and applying fusion for propulsion are somewhat different from those for terrestrial electrical power generation. Thus fusion schemes that are initially attractive for electrical power generation might not necessarily be attractive also for propulsion and vice versa, though the underlying fusion science and engineering enjoy much overlap. Parallel efforts to develop these qualitatively differently fusion schemes for the two applications could benefit greatly from each other due to the synergy in the underlying physics and engineering. Pulsed approaches to fusion have not been explored to the same degree as steady-state or long-pulse approaches to fusion in the fusion power research program. The concerns early on were several. One was that the pulsed power components might not have the service lifetimes meeting the requirements of a practical power generating plant. Another was that, for many pulsed fusion schemes, it was not clear whether the destruction of hardware per pulse could be minimized or eliminated or recycled to such an extent as to make economical electrical power generation feasible, Significant development of the underlying pulsed power component technologies have occurred in the last two decades because of defense and other energy requirements. The state of development of the pulsed power technologies are sufficiently advanced now to make it compelling to visit or re-visit pulsed fusion approaches for application to propulsion where the cost of energy is not so demanding a factor as in the case of terrestrial power application. For propulsion application, the overall mass of the fusion system is the critical factor. Producing fusion reactions require extreme states of matter. Conceptually, these extreme states of matter are more readily realizable in the pulsed states, at least within appropriate bounds, than in the steady states. Significant saving in system mass may result in such systems. Magnetic fields are effective in confining plasma energy, whereas inertial compression is an effective way of heating and containing the plasma. Intensive research in developing magnetic energy containment and inertial plasma compression are being pursued in distinctively different fusion experiments in the terrestrial fusion power program. Fusion schemes that attempt to combine the favorable attributes of these two aspects into one single integrated fusion scheme appear to have benefits that are worth exploring for propulsion application.

Paclitaxel stimulates chromosomal fusion and instability in cells with dysfunctional telomeres: Implication in multinucleation and chemosensitization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Jeong-Eun; Woo, Seon Rang; Department of Biochemistry, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul 136-705

Research highlights: {yields} Paclitaxel serves as a stimulator of chromosomal fusion in cells in which telomeres are dysfunctional. {yields} Typical fusions involve p-arms, but paclitaxel-induced fusions occur between both q- and p-arms. {yields} Paclitaxel-stimulated fusions in cells in which telomeres are dysfunctional evoke prolonged G2/M cell cycle arrest and delay multinucleation. {yields} Upon telomere erosion, paclitaxel promotes chromosomal instability and subsequent apoptosis. {yields} Chromosomal fusion enhances paclitaxel chemosensitivity under telomere dysfunction. -- Abstract: The anticancer effect of paclitaxel is attributable principally to irreversible promotion of microtubule stabilization and is hampered upon development of chemoresistance by tumor cells. Telomere shortening, andmore » eventual telomere erosion, evoke chromosomal instability, resulting in particular cellular responses. Using telomerase-deficient cells derived from mTREC-/-p53-/- mice, here we show that, upon telomere erosion, paclitaxel propagates chromosomal instability by stimulating chromosomal end-to-end fusions and delaying the development of multinucleation. The end-to-end fusions involve both the p- and q-arms in cells in which telomeres are dysfunctional. Paclitaxel-induced chromosomal fusions were accompanied by prolonged G2/M cell cycle arrest, delayed multinucleation, and apoptosis. Telomere dysfunctional cells with mutlinucleation eventually underwent apoptosis. Thus, as telomere erosion proceeds, paclitaxel stimulates chromosomal fusion and instability, and both apoptosis and chemosensitization eventually develop.« less

Number-Knower Levels in Young Children: Insights from Bayesian Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Michael D.; Sarnecka, Barbara W.

2011-01-01

Lee and Sarnecka (2010) developed a Bayesian model of young children's behavior on the Give-N test of number knowledge. This paper presents two new extensions of the model, and applies the model to new data. In the first extension, the model is used to evaluate competing theories about the conceptual knowledge underlying children's behavior. One,…

XID+: Next generation XID development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurley, Peter

2017-04-01

XID+ is a prior-based source extraction tool which carries out photometry in the Herschel SPIRE (Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver) maps at the positions of known sources. It uses a probabilistic Bayesian framework that provides a natural framework in which to include prior information, and uses the Bayesian inference tool Stan to obtain the full posterior probability distribution on flux estimates.

Predicting Student Success: A Naïve Bayesian Application to Community College Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ornelas, Fermin; Ordonez, Carlos

2017-01-01

This research focuses on developing and implementing a continuous Naïve Bayesian classifier for GEAR courses at Rio Salado Community College. Previous implementation efforts of a discrete version did not predict as well, 70%, and had deployment issues. This predictive model has higher prediction, over 90%, accuracy for both at-risk and successful…

A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors-abstract

EPA Science Inventory

The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity but MoA classification in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity mode of action using a recently published dataset contain...

Brief Report: Suboptimal Auditory Localization in Autism Spectrum Disorder--Support for the Bayesian Account of Sensory Symptoms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skewes, Joshua C.; Gebauer, Line

2016-01-01

Convergent research suggests that people with ASD have difficulties localizing sounds in space. These difficulties have implications for communication, the development of social behavior, and quality of life. Recently, a theory has emerged which treats perceptual symptoms in ASD as the product of impairments in implicit Bayesian inference; as…

Developing Critical Thinking about Reporting of Bayesian Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pullenayegum, Eleanor M.; Guo, Qing; Hopkins, Robert B.

2012-01-01

Graduate students in the health sciences who hope to become independent researchers must be able to write up their results at a standard suitable for submission to peer-reviewed journals. Bayesian analyses are still rare in the medical literature, and students are often unclear on what should be included in a manuscript. Whilst there are published…

Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language for Bayesian Inference and Optimization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gelman, Andrew; Lee, Daniel; Guo, Jiqiang

2015-01-01

Stan is a free and open-source C++ program that performs Bayesian inference or optimization for arbitrary user-specified models and can be called from the command line, R, Python, Matlab, or Julia and has great promise for fitting large and complex statistical models in many areas of application. We discuss Stan from users' and developers'…

Emphasis on Emotions in Student Learning: Analyzing Relationships between Overexcitabilities and the Learning Approach Using Bayesian MIMIC Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Bondt, Niki; Van Petegem, Peter

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to investigate interrelationships between overexcitability and learning patterns from the perspective of personality development according to Dabrowski's theory of positive disintegration. To this end, Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) is applied which allows for the simultaneous inclusion in the measurement…

A search for hep solar neutrinos at the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winchester, Timothy J.

Solar neutrinos from the fusion hep reaction, (helium-3 fusing with a proton to become helium-4, releasing a positron and neutrino), have previously remained undetected due to their flux being about one one-thousandth that of boron-8 neutrinos. These neutrinos are interesting theoretically because they are less dependent on solar composition than other solar neutrinos, and therefore provide a somewhat independent test of the Standard Solar Model. In this analysis, we develop a new event fitter for existing data from the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory. We also use the fitter to remove backgrounds that previously limited the fiducial volume, which we increase by 30%. We use a modified Wald-Wolfowitz test to increase the amount of live time by 200 days (18%) and show that this data is consistent with the previously-used data. Finally, we develop a Bayesian analysis technique to make full use of the posterior distributions of energy returned by the event fitter. In the first significant detection of hep neutrinos, we find that the most-probable rate of hep events is 3.5 x 10. 4 /cm. 2/s, which is significantly higher than the theoretical prediction. We find that the 95% credible region extends from 1.0 to 7.2 x 10. 4 /cm. 2/s, and that we can therefore exclude a rate of 0 hep events at greater than 95% probability.

A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

2012-01-01

1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

Bayesian Inference for Time Trends in Parameter Values using Weighted Evidence Sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D. L. Kelly; A. Malkhasyan

2010-09-01

There is a nearly ubiquitous assumption in PSA that parameter values are at least piecewise-constant in time. As a result, Bayesian inference tends to incorporate many years of plant operation, over which there have been significant changes in plant operational and maintenance practices, plant management, etc. These changes can cause significant changes in parameter values over time; however, failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework can mask these changes. Failure to question the assumption of constant parameter values, and failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework were noted as important issues in NUREG/CR-6813, performedmore » for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards in 2003. That report noted that “in-dustry lacks tools to perform time-trend analysis with Bayesian updating.” This paper describes an applica-tion of time-dependent Bayesian inference methods developed for the European Commission Ageing PSA Network. These methods utilize open-source software, implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The paper also illustrates an approach to incorporating multiple sources of data via applicability weighting factors that address differences in key influences, such as vendor, component boundaries, conditions of the operating environment, etc.« less

Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-29

IV 0 2 10 23 BIRADS V 0 1 2 1 No mammogram 116 94 55 45 Breast biopsy category .4076 Benign, no atypia 19 12 27 34 Premalignant 1 0 2 4 Infiltrating... breast EIS result∗ Estimated outcome, % Known evidence Biopsy category EIS Gail Benign, no Infiltrating cancer Case frequency, % result cutoff‘ atypia or...Development of a Bayesian Classifier for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification: A Feasibility Study Alexander Stojadinovic, MD,a,b Christina Eberhardt,a

ANNETTE Project: Contributing to The Nuclearization of Fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambrosini, W.; Cizelj, L.; Dieguez Porras, P.; Jaspers, R.; Noterdaeme, J.; Scheffer, M.; Schoenfelder, C.

2018-01-01

The ANNETTE Project (Advanced Networking for Nuclear Education and Training and Transfer of Expertise) is well underway, and one of its work packages addresses the design, development and implementation of nuclear fusion training. A systematic approach is used that leads to the development of new training courses, based on identified nuclear competences needs of the work force of (future) fusion reactors and on the current availability of suitable training courses. From interaction with stakeholders involved in the ITER design and construction or the JET D-T campaign, it became clear that the lack of nuclear safety culture awareness already has an impact on current projects. Through the collaboration between the European education networks in fission (ENEN) and fusion (FuseNet) in the ANNETTE project, this project is well positioned to support the development of nuclear competences for ongoing and future fusion projects. Thereby it will make a clear contribution to the realization of fusion energy.

An economic growth model based on financial credits distribution to the government economy priority sectors of each regency in Indonesia using hierarchical Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasmirullah, Septia Devi Prihastuti; Iriawan, Nur; Sipayung, Feronika Rosalinda

2017-11-01

The success of regional economic establishment could be measured by economic growth. Since the Act No. 32 of 2004 has been implemented, unbalance economic among the regency in Indonesia is increasing. This condition is contrary different with the government goal to build society welfare through the economic activity development in each region. This research aims to examine economic growth through the distribution of bank credits to each Indonesia's regency. The data analyzed in this research is hierarchically structured data which follow normal distribution in first level. Two modeling approaches are employed in this research, a global-one level Bayesian approach and two-level hierarchical Bayesian approach. The result shows that hierarchical Bayesian has succeeded to demonstrate a better estimation than a global-one level Bayesian. It proves that the different economic growth in each province is significantly influenced by the variations of micro level characteristics in each province. These variations are significantly affected by cities and province characteristics in second level.

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S.; Coc, A.

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We presentmore » astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.« less

Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.

2018-03-01

The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.

Numerical study on the sequential Bayesian approach for radioactive materials detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qingpei, Xiang; Dongfeng, Tian; Jianyu, Zhu; Fanhua, Hao; Ge, Ding; Jun, Zeng

2013-01-01

A new detection method, based on the sequential Bayesian approach proposed by Candy et al., offers new horizons for the research of radioactive detection. Compared with the commonly adopted detection methods incorporated with statistical theory, the sequential Bayesian approach offers the advantages of shorter verification time during the analysis of spectra that contain low total counts, especially in complex radionuclide components. In this paper, a simulation experiment platform implanted with the methodology of sequential Bayesian approach was developed. Events sequences of γ-rays associating with the true parameters of a LaBr3(Ce) detector were obtained based on an events sequence generator using Monte Carlo sampling theory to study the performance of the sequential Bayesian approach. The numerical experimental results are in accordance with those of Candy. Moreover, the relationship between the detection model and the event generator, respectively represented by the expected detection rate (Am) and the tested detection rate (Gm) parameters, is investigated. To achieve an optimal performance for this processor, the interval of the tested detection rate as a function of the expected detection rate is also presented.

The da Vinci robotic surgical assisted anterior lumbar interbody fusion: technical development and case report.

PubMed

Beutler, William J; Peppelman, Walter C; DiMarco, Luciano A

2013-02-15

Technique development to use the da Vince Robotic Surgical System for anterior lumbar interbody fusion at L5-S1 is detailed. A case report is also presented. To evaluate and develop the da Vinci robotic assisted laparoscopic anterior lumbar stand-alone interbody fusion procedure. Anterior lumbar interbody fusion is a common procedure associated with potential morbidity related to the surgical approach. The da Vinci robot provides intra-abdominal dissection and visualization advantages compared with the traditional open and laparoscopic approach. The surgical techniques for approach to the anterior lumbar spine using the da Vinci robot were developed and modified progressively beginning with operative models followed by placement of an interbody fusion cage in the living porcine model. Development continued to progress with placement of fusion cage in a human cadaver, completed first in the laboratory setting and then in the operating room. Finally, the first patient with fusion completed using the da Vinci robot-assisted approach is presented. The anterior transperitoneal approach to the lumbar spine is accomplished with enhanced visualization and dissection capability, with maintenance of pneumoperitoneum using the da Vinci robot. Blood loss is minimal. The visualization inside the disc space and surrounding structures was considered better than current open and laparoscopic techniques. The da Vinci robot Surgical System technique continues to develop and is now described for the transperitoneal approach to the anterior lumbar spine. 4.

Radiation and Electromagnetic Induction Data Fusion for Detection of Buried Radioactive Metal Waste - 12282

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, Zhiling; Wei, Wei; Turlapaty, Anish

2012-07-01

At the United States Army's test sites, fired penetrators made of Depleted Uranium (DU) have been buried under ground and become hazardous waste. Previously, we developed techniques for detecting buried radioactive targets. We also developed approaches for locating buried paramagnetic metal objects by utilizing the electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensor data. In this paper, we apply data fusion techniques to combine results from both the radiation detection and the EMI detection, so that we can further distinguish among DU penetrators, DU oxide, and non- DU metal debris. We develop a two-step fusion approach for the task, and test it with surveymore » data collected on simulation targets. In this work, we explored radiation and EMI data fusion for detecting DU, oxides, and non-DU metals. We developed a two-step fusion approach based on majority voting and a set of decision rules. With this approach, we fuse results from radiation detection based on the RX algorithm and EMI detection based on a 3-step analysis. Our fusion approach has been tested successfully with data collected on simulation targets. In the future, we will need to further verify the effectiveness of this fusion approach with field data. (authors)« less

Modeling and analysis of tritium dynamics in a DT fusion fuel cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuan, William

1998-11-01

A number of crucial design issues have a profound effect on the dynamics of the tritium fuel cycle in a DT fusion reactor, where the development of appropriate solutions to these issues is of particular importance to the introduction of fusion as a commercial system. Such tritium-related issues can be classified according to their operational, safety, and economic impact to the operation of the reactor during its lifetime. Given such key design issues inherent in next generation fusion devices using the DT fuel cycle development of appropriate models can then lead to optimized designs of the fusion fuel cycle for different types of DT fusion reactors. In this work, two different types of modeling approaches are developed and their application to solving key tritium issues presented. For the first approach, time-dependent inventories, concentrations, and flow rates characterizing the main subsystems of the fuel cycle are simulated with a new dynamic modular model of a fusion reactor's fuel cycle, named X-TRUFFLES (X-Windows TRitiUm Fusion Fuel cycLE dynamic Simulation). The complex dynamic behavior of the recycled fuel within each of the modeled subsystems is investigated using this new integrated model for different reactor scenarios and design approaches. Results for a proposed fuel cycle design taking into account current technologies are presented, including sensitivity studies. Ways to minimize the tritium inventory are also assessed by examining various design options that could be used to minimize local and global tritium inventories. The second modeling approach involves an analytical model to be used for the calculation of the required tritium breeding ratio, i.e., a primary design issue which relates directly to the feasibility and economics of DT fusion systems. A time-integrated global tritium balance scheme is developed and appropriate analytical expressions are derived for tritium self-sufficiency relevant parameters. The easy exploration of the large parameter space of the fusion fuel cycle can thus be conducted as opposed to previous modeling approaches. Future guidance for R&D (research and development) in fusion nuclear technology is discussed in view of possible routes to take in reducing the tritium breeding requirements of DT fusion reactors.

Should the US abandon efforts to develop commercial fusion power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kay, W.D.; Kinter, E.E.

1993-01-22

This article presents viewpoints and rationale for continuing and disbanding the US efforts to develop commercial fusion power. The views of W.D. Kay, an assistant professor of political science at Northeastern University, are presented regarding - yes, abandon efforts. Meanwhile, the views of Edwin Keutes, former director of the Magnetic Fusion Program for DOE, are presented for continued development.

Rigorous Approach in Investigation of Seismic Structure and Source Characteristicsin Northeast Asia: Hierarchical and Trans-dimensional Bayesian Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mustac, M.; Kim, S.; Tkalcic, H.; Rhie, J.; Chen, Y.; Ford, S. R.; Sebastian, N.

2015-12-01

Conventional approaches to inverse problems suffer from non-linearity and non-uniqueness in estimations of seismic structures and source properties. Estimated results and associated uncertainties are often biased by applied regularizations and additional constraints, which are commonly introduced to solve such problems. Bayesian methods, however, provide statistically meaningful estimations of models and their uncertainties constrained by data information. In addition, hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques are inherently implemented in the Bayesian framework to account for involved error statistics and model parameterizations, and, in turn, allow more rigorous estimations of the same. Here, we apply Bayesian methods throughout the entire inference process to estimate seismic structures and source properties in Northeast Asia including east China, the Korean peninsula, and the Japanese islands. Ambient noise analysis is first performed to obtain a base three-dimensional (3-D) heterogeneity model using continuous broadband waveforms from more than 300 stations. As for the tomography of surface wave group and phase velocities in the 5-70 s band, we adopt a hierarchical and trans-D Bayesian inversion method using Voronoi partition. The 3-D heterogeneity model is further improved by joint inversions of teleseismic receiver functions and dispersion data using a newly developed high-efficiency Bayesian technique. The obtained model is subsequently used to prepare 3-D structural Green's functions for the source characterization. A hierarchical Bayesian method for point source inversion using regional complete waveform data is applied to selected events from the region. The seismic structure and source characteristics with rigorously estimated uncertainties from the novel Bayesian methods provide enhanced monitoring and discrimination of seismic events in northeast Asia.

Development of a 3D co-culture model using human stem cells for studying embryonic palatal fusion.

EPA Science Inventory

Morphogenetic tissue fusion is a critical and complex event in embryonic development and failure of this event leads to birth defects, such as cleft palate. Palatal fusion requires adhesion and subsequent dissolution of the medial epithelial layer of the mesenchymal palatal shelv...

Environmentally adaptive processing for shallow ocean applications: A sequential Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Candy, J V

2015-09-01

The shallow ocean is a changing environment primarily due to temperature variations in its upper layers directly affecting sound propagation throughout. The need to develop processors capable of tracking these changes implies a stochastic as well as an environmentally adaptive design. Bayesian techniques have evolved to enable a class of processors capable of performing in such an uncertain, nonstationary (varying statistics), non-Gaussian, variable shallow ocean environment. A solution to this problem is addressed by developing a sequential Bayesian processor capable of providing a joint solution to the modal function tracking and environmental adaptivity problem. Here, the focus is on the development of both a particle filter and an unscented Kalman filter capable of providing reasonable performance for this problem. These processors are applied to hydrophone measurements obtained from a vertical array. The adaptivity problem is attacked by allowing the modal coefficients and/or wavenumbers to be jointly estimated from the noisy measurement data along with tracking of the modal functions while simultaneously enhancing the noisy pressure-field measurements.

Bayesian least squares deconvolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asensio Ramos, A.; Petit, P.

2015-11-01

Aims: We develop a fully Bayesian least squares deconvolution (LSD) that can be applied to the reliable detection of magnetic signals in noise-limited stellar spectropolarimetric observations using multiline techniques. Methods: We consider LSD under the Bayesian framework and we introduce a flexible Gaussian process (GP) prior for the LSD profile. This prior allows the result to automatically adapt to the presence of signal. We exploit several linear algebra identities to accelerate the calculations. The final algorithm can deal with thousands of spectral lines in a few seconds. Results: We demonstrate the reliability of the method with synthetic experiments and we apply it to real spectropolarimetric observations of magnetic stars. We are able to recover the magnetic signals using a small number of spectral lines, together with the uncertainty at each velocity bin. This allows the user to consider if the detected signal is reliable. The code to compute the Bayesian LSD profile is freely available.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Bayesian learning of visual chunks by human observers

PubMed Central

Orbán, Gergő; Fiser, József; Aslin, Richard N.; Lengyel, Máté

2008-01-01

Efficient and versatile processing of any hierarchically structured information requires a learning mechanism that combines lower-level features into higher-level chunks. We investigated this chunking mechanism in humans with a visual pattern-learning paradigm. We developed an ideal learner based on Bayesian model comparison that extracts and stores only those chunks of information that are minimally sufficient to encode a set of visual scenes. Our ideal Bayesian chunk learner not only reproduced the results of a large set of previous empirical findings in the domain of human pattern learning but also made a key prediction that we confirmed experimentally. In accordance with Bayesian learning but contrary to associative learning, human performance was well above chance when pair-wise statistics in the exemplars contained no relevant information. Thus, humans extract chunks from complex visual patterns by generating accurate yet economical representations and not by encoding the full correlational structure of the input. PMID:18268353

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

2010-12-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies conservation planning. Journal compilation © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

A Bayesian comparative effectiveness trial in action: developing a platform for multisite study adaptive randomization.

PubMed

Brown, Alexandra R; Gajewski, Byron J; Aaronson, Lauren S; Mudaranthakam, Dinesh Pal; Hunt, Suzanne L; Berry, Scott M; Quintana, Melanie; Pasnoor, Mamatha; Dimachkie, Mazen M; Jawdat, Omar; Herbelin, Laura; Barohn, Richard J

2016-08-31

In the last few decades, the number of trials using Bayesian methods has grown rapidly. Publications prior to 1990 included only three clinical trials that used Bayesian methods, but that number quickly jumped to 19 in the 1990s and to 99 from 2000 to 2012. While this literature provides many examples of Bayesian Adaptive Designs (BAD), none of the papers that are available walks the reader through the detailed process of conducting a BAD. This paper fills that gap by describing the BAD process used for one comparative effectiveness trial (Patient Assisted Intervention for Neuropathy: Comparison of Treatment in Real Life Situations) that can be generalized for use by others. A BAD was chosen with efficiency in mind. Response-adaptive randomization allows the potential for substantially smaller sample sizes, and can provide faster conclusions about which treatment or treatments are most effective. An Internet-based electronic data capture tool, which features a randomization module, facilitated data capture across study sites and an in-house computation software program was developed to implement the response-adaptive randomization. A process for adapting randomization with minimal interruption to study sites was developed. A new randomization table can be generated quickly and can be seamlessly integrated in the data capture tool with minimal interruption to study sites. This manuscript is the first to detail the technical process used to evaluate a multisite comparative effectiveness trial using adaptive randomization. An important opportunity for the application of Bayesian trials is in comparative effectiveness trials. The specific case study presented in this paper can be used as a model for conducting future clinical trials using a combination of statistical software and a web-based application. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02260388 , registered on 6 October 2014.

Fusion interfaces for tactical environments: An application of virtual reality technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haas, Michael W.

1994-01-01

The term Fusion Interface is defined as a class of interface which integrally incorporates both virtual and nonvirtual concepts and devices across the visual, auditory, and haptic sensory modalities. A fusion interface is a multisensory virtually-augmented synthetic environment. A new facility has been developed within the Human Engineering Division of the Armstrong Laboratory dedicated to exploratory development of fusion interface concepts. This new facility, the Fusion Interfaces for Tactical Environments (FITE) Facility is a specialized flight simulator enabling efficient concept development through rapid prototyping and direct experience of new fusion concepts. The FITE Facility also supports evaluation of fusion concepts by operation fighter pilots in an air combat environment. The facility is utilized by a multidisciplinary design team composed of human factors engineers, electronics engineers, computer scientists, experimental psychologists, and oeprational pilots. The FITE computational architecture is composed of twenty-five 80486-based microcomputers operating in real-time. The microcomputers generate out-the-window visuals, in-cockpit and head-mounted visuals, localized auditory presentations, haptic displays on the stick and rudder pedals, as well as executing weapons models, aerodynamic models, and threat models.

Introduction to Nuclear Fusion Power and the Design of Fusion Reactors. An Issue-Oriented Module.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fillo, J. A.

This three-part module focuses on the principles of nuclear fusion and on the likely nature and components of a controlled-fusion power reactor. The physical conditions for a net energy release from fusion and two approaches (magnetic and inertial confinement) which are being developed to achieve this goal are described. Safety issues associated…

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring

Treesearch

Carlos Carroll; Devin S. Johnson; Jeffrey R. Dunk; William J. Zielinski

2010-01-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data’s spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and...

A Bayesian estimation of a stochastic predator-prey model of economic fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibeh, Ghassan; Luchinsky, Dmitry G.; Luchinskaya, Daria D.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.

2007-06-01

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the empirical estimation of the parameters of one of the best known nonlinear models of the business cycle: The Marx-inspired model of a growth cycle introduced by R. M. Goodwin. The model predicts a series of closed cycles representing the dynamics of labor's share and the employment rate in the capitalist economy. The Bayesian framework is used to empirically estimate a modified Goodwin model. The original model is extended in two ways. First, we allow for exogenous periodic variations of the otherwise steady growth rates of the labor force and productivity per worker. Second, we allow for stochastic variations of those parameters. The resultant modified Goodwin model is a stochastic predator-prey model with periodic forcing. The model is then estimated using a newly developed Bayesian estimation method on data sets representing growth cycles in France and Italy during the years 1960-2005. Results show that inference of the parameters of the stochastic Goodwin model can be achieved. The comparison of the dynamics of the Goodwin model with the inferred values of parameters demonstrates quantitative agreement with the growth cycle empirical data.

A Bayesian network approach to knowledge integration and representation of farm irrigation: 1. Model development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Haines, C. L.

2009-02-01

Irrigation is important to many agricultural businesses but also has implications for catchment health. A considerable body of knowledge exists on how irrigation management affects farm business and catchment health. However, this knowledge is fragmentary; is available in many forms such as qualitative and quantitative; is dispersed in scientific literature, technical reports, and the minds of individuals; and is of varying degrees of certainty. Bayesian networks allow the integration of dispersed knowledge into quantitative systems models. This study describes the development, validation, and application of a Bayesian network model of farm irrigation in the Shepparton Irrigation Region of northern Victoria, Australia. In this first paper we describe the process used to integrate a range of sources of knowledge to develop a model of farm irrigation. We describe the principal model components and summarize the reaction to the model and its development process by local stakeholders. Subsequent papers in this series describe model validation and the application of the model to assess the regional impact of historical and future management intervention.

Fusion energy division annual progress report, period ending December 31, 1980

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1981-11-01

The ORNL Program encompasses most aspects of magnetic fusion research including research on two magnetic confinement programs (tokamaks and ELMO bumpy tori); the development of the essential technologies for plasma heating, fueling, superconducting magnets, and materials; the development of diagnostics; the development of atomic physics and radiation effect data bases; the assessment of the environmental impact of magnetic fusion; the physics and engineering of present-generation devices; and the design of future devices. The integration of all of these activities into one program is a major factor in the success of each activity. An excellent example of this integration is themore » extremely successful application of neutral injection heating systems developed at ORNL to tokamaks both in the Fusion Energy Division and at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL). The goal of the ORNL Fusion Program is to maintain this balance between plasma confinement, technology, and engineering activities.« less

Advances in multi-sensor data fusion: algorithms and applications.

PubMed

Dong, Jiang; Zhuang, Dafang; Huang, Yaohuan; Fu, Jingying

2009-01-01

With the development of satellite and remote sensing techniques, more and more image data from airborne/satellite sensors have become available. Multi-sensor image fusion seeks to combine information from different images to obtain more inferences than can be derived from a single sensor. In image-based application fields, image fusion has emerged as a promising research area since the end of the last century. The paper presents an overview of recent advances in multi-sensor satellite image fusion. Firstly, the most popular existing fusion algorithms are introduced, with emphasis on their recent improvements. Advances in main applications fields in remote sensing, including object identification, classification, change detection and maneuvering targets tracking, are described. Both advantages and limitations of those applications are then discussed. Recommendations are addressed, including: (1) Improvements of fusion algorithms; (2) Development of "algorithm fusion" methods; (3) Establishment of an automatic quality assessment scheme.

Evaluating Variability and Uncertainty of Geological Strength Index at a Specific Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yu; Aladejare, Adeyemi Emman

2016-09-01

Geological Strength Index (GSI) is an important parameter for estimating rock mass properties. GSI can be estimated from quantitative GSI chart, as an alternative to the direct observational method which requires vast geological experience of rock. GSI chart was developed from past observations and engineering experience, with either empiricism or some theoretical simplifications. The GSI chart thereby contains model uncertainty which arises from its development. The presence of such model uncertainty affects the GSI estimated from GSI chart at a specific site; it is, therefore, imperative to quantify and incorporate the model uncertainty during GSI estimation from the GSI chart. A major challenge for quantifying the GSI chart model uncertainty is a lack of the original datasets that have been used to develop the GSI chart, since the GSI chart was developed from past experience without referring to specific datasets. This paper intends to tackle this problem by developing a Bayesian approach for quantifying the model uncertainty in GSI chart when using it to estimate GSI at a specific site. The model uncertainty in the GSI chart and the inherent spatial variability in GSI are modeled explicitly in the Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach generates equivalent samples of GSI from the integrated knowledge of GSI chart, prior knowledge and observation data available from site investigation. Equations are derived for the Bayesian approach, and the proposed approach is illustrated using data from a drill and blast tunnel project. The proposed approach effectively tackles the problem of how to quantify the model uncertainty that arises from using GSI chart for characterization of site-specific GSI in a transparent manner.

Commercial objectives, technology transfer, and systems analysis for fusion power development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, Stephen O.

1988-03-01

Fusion is an essentially inexhaustible source of energy that has the potential for economically attractive commercial applications with excellent safety and environmental characteristics. The primary focus for the fusion-energy development program is the generation of centralstation electricity. Fusion has the potential, however, for many other applications. The fact that a large fraction of the energy released in a DT fusion reaction is carried by high-energy neutrons suggests potentially unique applications. These include breeding of fissile fuels, production of hydrogen and other chemical products, transmutation or “burning” of various nuclear or chemical wastes, radiation processing of materials, production of radioisotopes, food preservation, medical diagnosis and medical treatment, and space power and space propulsion. In addition, fusion R&D will lead to new products and new markets. Each fusion application must meet certain standards of economic and safety and environmental attractiveness. For this reason, economics on the one hand, and safety and environment and licensing on the other hand, are the two primary criteria for setting long-range commercial fusion objectives. A major function of systems analysis is to evaluate the potential of fusion against these objectives and to help guide the fusion R&D program toward practical applications. The transfer of fusion technology and skills from the national laboratories and universities to industry is the key to achieving the long-range objective of commercial fusion applications.

Development of Electron Beam Pumped KrF Lasers for Fusion Energy

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

Direct drive with krypton fluoride (KrF) lasers is an attractive approach to inertial fusion energy (IFE): KrF lasers have outstanding beam spatial...attractive power plant [3]. In view of these advances, several world-wide programs are underway to develop KrF lasers for fusion energy . These include

Compact fusion energy based on the spherical tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sykes, A.; Costley, A. E.; Windsor, C. G.; Asunta, O.; Brittles, G.; Buxton, P.; Chuyanov, V.; Connor, J. W.; Gryaznevich, M. P.; Huang, B.; Hugill, J.; Kukushkin, A.; Kingham, D.; Langtry, A. V.; McNamara, S.; Morgan, J. G.; Noonan, P.; Ross, J. S. H.; Shevchenko, V.; Slade, R.; Smith, G.

2018-01-01

Tokamak Energy Ltd, UK, is developing spherical tokamaks using high temperature superconductor magnets as a possible route to fusion power using relatively small devices. We present an overview of the development programme including details of the enabling technologies, the key modelling methods and results, and the remaining challenges on the path to compact fusion.

America COMPETES Act and the FY2010 Budget

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-15

Outstanding Junior Investigator, Nuclear Physics Outstanding Junior Investigator, Fusion Energy Sciences Plasma Physics Junior Faculty Development...Spallation Neutron Source Instrumentation Fellowships, and the Fusion Energy Sciences Graduate Fellowships.2 If members of Congress agree with this...Nuclear Physics Outstanding Junior Investigator, Fusion Energy Sciences Plasma Physics Junior Faculty Development; Advanced Scientific Computing

America COMPETES Act and the FY2010 Budget

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-29

Outstanding Junior Investigator, Fusion Energy Sciences Plasma Physics Junior Faculty Development; Advanced Scientific Computing Research Early Career...the Fusion Energy Sciences Graduate Fellowships.2 If members of Congress agree with this contention, these America COMPETES Act programs were...Physics Outstanding Junior Investigator, Fusion Energy Sciences Plasma Physics Junior Faculty Development; Advanced Scientific Computing Research Early

Enhanced chemical weapon warning via sensor fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaherty, Michael; Pritchett, Daniel; Cothren, Brian; Schwaiger, James

2011-05-01

Torch Technologies Inc., is actively involved in chemical sensor networking and data fusion via multi-year efforts with Dugway Proving Ground (DPG) and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). The objective of these efforts is to develop innovative concepts and advanced algorithms that enhance our national Chemical Warfare (CW) test and warning capabilities via the fusion of traditional and non-traditional CW sensor data. Under Phase I, II, and III Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) contracts with DPG, Torch developed the Advanced Chemical Release Evaluation System (ACRES) software to support non real-time CW sensor data fusion. Under Phase I and II SBIRs with DTRA in conjunction with the Edgewood Chemical Biological Center (ECBC), Torch is using the DPG ACRES CW sensor data fuser as a framework from which to develop the Cloud state Estimation in a Networked Sensor Environment (CENSE) data fusion system. Torch is currently developing CENSE to implement and test innovative real-time sensor network based data fusion concepts using CW and non-CW ancillary sensor data to improve CW warning and detection in tactical scenarios.

International strategy for fusion materials development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehrlich, Karl; Bloom, E. E.; Kondo, T.

2000-12-01

In this paper, the results of an IEA-Workshop on Strategy and Planning of Fusion Materials Research and Development (R&D), held in October 1998 in Risø Denmark are summarised and further developed. Essential performance targets for materials to be used in first wall/breeding blanket components have been defined for the major materials groups under discussion: ferritic-martensitic steels, vanadium alloys and ceramic composites of the SiC/SiC-type. R&D strategies are proposed for their further development and qualification as reactor-relevant materials. The important role of existing irradiation facilities (mainly fission reactors) for materials testing within the next decade is described, and the limits for the transfer of results from such simulation experiments to fusion-relevant conditions are addressed. The importance of a fusion-relevant high-intensity neutron source for the development of structural as well as breeding and special purpose materials is elaborated and the reasons for the selection of an accelerator-driven D-Li-neutron source - the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) - as an appropriate test bed are explained. Finally the necessity to execute the materials programme for fusion in close international collaboration, presently promoted by the International Energy Agency, IEA is emphasised.

Case Study: Organotypic human in vitro models of embryonic morphogenetic fusion

EPA Science Inventory

Morphogenetic fusion of tissues is a common event in embryonic development and disruption of fusion is associated with birth defects of the eye, heart, neural tube, phallus, palate, and other organ systems. Embryonic tissue fusion requires precise regulation of cell-cell and cell...

Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models*

PubMed Central

Lenkoski, Alex; Eicher, Theo S.; Raftery, Adrian E.

2013-01-01

Economic modeling in the presence of endogeneity is subject to model uncertainty at both the instrument and covariate level. We propose a Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging (2SBMA) methodology that extends the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator. By constructing a Two-Stage Unit Information Prior in the endogenous variable model, we are able to efficiently combine established methods for addressing model uncertainty in regression models with the classic technique of 2SLS. To assess the validity of instruments in the 2SBMA context, we develop Bayesian tests of the identification restriction that are based on model averaged posterior predictive p-values. A simulation study showed that 2SBMA has the ability to recover structure in both the instrument and covariate set, and substantially improves the sharpness of resulting coefficient estimates in comparison to 2SLS using the full specification in an automatic fashion. Due to the increased parsimony of the 2SBMA estimate, the Bayesian Sargan test had a power of 50 percent in detecting a violation of the exogeneity assumption, while the method based on 2SLS using the full specification had negligible power. We apply our approach to the problem of development accounting, and find support not only for institutions, but also for geography and integration as development determinants, once both model uncertainty and endogeneity have been jointly addressed. PMID:24223471

Interrelationships between mitochondrial fusion, energy metabolism and oxidative stress during development in Caenorhabditis elegans.

PubMed

Yasuda, Kayo; Hartman, Philip S; Ishii, Takamasa; Suda, Hitoshi; Akatsuka, Akira; Shoyama, Tetsuji; Miyazawa, Masaki; Ishii, Naoaki

2011-01-21

Mitochondria are known to be dynamic structures with the energetically and enzymatically mediated processes of fusion and fission responsible for maintaining a constant flux. Mitochondria also play a role of reactive oxygen species production as a byproduct of energy metabolism. In the current study, interrelationships between mitochondrial fusion, energy metabolism and oxidative stress on development were explored using a fzo-1 mutant defective in the fusion process and a mev-1 mutant overproducing superoxide from mitochondrial electron transport complex II of Caenorhabditis elegans. While growth and development of both single mutants was slightly delayed relative to the wild type, the fzo-1;mev-1 double mutant experienced considerable delay. Oxygen sensitivity during larval development, superoxide production and carbonyl protein accumulation of the fzo-1 mutant were similar to wild type. fzo-1 animals had significantly lower metabolism than did N2 and mev-1. These data indicate that mitochondrial fusion can profoundly affect energy metabolism and development. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inference of Gene Regulatory Networks Using Bayesian Nonparametric Regression and Topology Information.

PubMed

Fan, Yue; Wang, Xiao; Peng, Qinke

2017-01-01

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) play an important role in cellular systems and are important for understanding biological processes. Many algorithms have been developed to infer the GRNs. However, most algorithms only pay attention to the gene expression data but do not consider the topology information in their inference process, while incorporating this information can partially compensate for the lack of reliable expression data. Here we develop a Bayesian group lasso with spike and slab priors to perform gene selection and estimation for nonparametric models. B-spline basis functions are used to capture the nonlinear relationships flexibly and penalties are used to avoid overfitting. Further, we incorporate the topology information into the Bayesian method as a prior. We present the application of our method on DREAM3 and DREAM4 datasets and two real biological datasets. The results show that our method performs better than existing methods and the topology information prior can improve the result.

Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

PubMed Central

Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

2015-01-01

Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259

A Bayesian sequential processor approach to spectroscopic portal system decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sale, K; Candy, J; Breitfeller, E

The development of faster more reliable techniques to detect radioactive contraband in a portal type scenario is an extremely important problem especially in this era of constant terrorist threats. Towards this goal the development of a model-based, Bayesian sequential data processor for the detection problem is discussed. In the sequential processor each datum (detector energy deposit and pulse arrival time) is used to update the posterior probability distribution over the space of model parameters. The nature of the sequential processor approach is that a detection is produced as soon as it is statistically justified by the data rather than waitingmore » for a fixed counting interval before any analysis is performed. In this paper the Bayesian model-based approach, physics and signal processing models and decision functions are discussed along with the first results of our research.« less

Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

PubMed

Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

2015-01-01

Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

confFuse: High-Confidence Fusion Gene Detection across Tumor Entities.

PubMed

Huang, Zhiqin; Jones, David T W; Wu, Yonghe; Lichter, Peter; Zapatka, Marc

2017-01-01

Background: Fusion genes play an important role in the tumorigenesis of many cancers. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies have been successfully applied in fusion gene detection for the last several years, and a number of NGS-based tools have been developed for identifying fusion genes during this period. Most fusion gene detection tools based on RNA-seq data report a large number of candidates (mostly false positives), making it hard to prioritize candidates for experimental validation and further analysis. Selection of reliable fusion genes for downstream analysis becomes very important in cancer research. We therefore developed confFuse, a scoring algorithm to reliably select high-confidence fusion genes which are likely to be biologically relevant. Results: confFuse takes multiple parameters into account in order to assign each fusion candidate a confidence score, of which score ≥8 indicates high-confidence fusion gene predictions. These parameters were manually curated based on our experience and on certain structural motifs of fusion genes. Compared with alternative tools, based on 96 published RNA-seq samples from different tumor entities, our method can significantly reduce the number of fusion candidates (301 high-confidence from 8,083 total predicted fusion genes) and keep high detection accuracy (recovery rate 85.7%). Validation of 18 novel, high-confidence fusions detected in three breast tumor samples resulted in a 100% validation rate. Conclusions: confFuse is a novel downstream filtering method that allows selection of highly reliable fusion gene candidates for further downstream analysis and experimental validations. confFuse is available at https://github.com/Zhiqin-HUANG/confFuse.

Development and Verification of an RNA Sequencing (RNA-Seq) Assay for the Detection of Gene Fusions in Tumors.

PubMed

Winters, Jennifer L; Davila, Jaime I; McDonald, Amber M; Nair, Asha A; Fadra, Numrah; Wehrs, Rebecca N; Thomas, Brittany C; Balcom, Jessica R; Jin, Long; Wu, Xianglin; Voss, Jesse S; Klee, Eric W; Oliver, Gavin R; Graham, Rondell P; Neff, Jadee L; Rumilla, Kandelaria M; Aypar, Umut; Kipp, Benjamin R; Jenkins, Robert B; Jen, Jin; Halling, Kevin C

2018-06-13

We assessed the performance characteristics of an RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) assay designed to detect gene fusions in 571 genes to help manage patients with cancer. Polyadenylated RNA was converted to cDNA, which was then used to prepare next-generation sequencing libraries that were sequenced on an Illumina HiSeq 2500 instrument and analyzed with an in-house developed bioinformatic pipeline. The assay identified 38 of 41 gene fusions detected by another method, such as fluorescence in situ hybridization or RT-PCR, for a sensitivity of 93%. No false-positive gene fusions were identified in 15 normal tissue specimens and 10 tumor specimens that were negative for fusions by RNA sequencing or Mate Pair NGS (100% specificity). The assay also identified 22 fusions in 17 tumor specimens that had not been detected by other methods. Eighteen of the 22 fusions had not previously been described. Good intra-assay and interassay reproducibility was observed with complete concordance for the presence or absence of gene fusions in replicates. The analytical sensitivity of the assay was tested by diluting RNA isolated from gene fusion-positive cases with fusion-negative RNA. Gene fusions were generally detectable down to 12.5% dilutions for most fusions and as little as 3% for some fusions. This assay can help identify fusions in patients with cancer; these patients may in turn benefit from both US Food and Drug Administration-approved and investigational targeted therapies. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Investigative Pathology and the Association for Molecular Pathology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Automated target classification in high resolution dual frequency sonar imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aridgides, Tom; Fernández, Manuel

2007-04-01

An improved computer-aided-detection / computer-aided-classification (CAD/CAC) processing string has been developed. The classified objects of 2 distinct strings are fused using the classification confidence values and their expansions as features, and using "summing" or log-likelihood-ratio-test (LLRT) based fusion rules. The utility of the overall processing strings and their fusion was demonstrated with new high-resolution dual frequency sonar imagery. Three significant fusion algorithm improvements were made. First, a nonlinear 2nd order (Volterra) feature LLRT fusion algorithm was developed. Second, a Box-Cox nonlinear feature LLRT fusion algorithm was developed. The Box-Cox transformation consists of raising the features to a to-be-determined power. Third, a repeated application of a subset feature selection / feature orthogonalization / Volterra feature LLRT fusion block was utilized. It was shown that cascaded Volterra feature LLRT fusion of the CAD/CAC processing strings outperforms summing, baseline single-stage Volterra and Box-Cox feature LLRT algorithms, yielding significant improvements over the best single CAD/CAC processing string results, and providing the capability to correctly call the majority of targets while maintaining a very low false alarm rate. Additionally, the robustness of cascaded Volterra feature fusion was demonstrated, by showing that the algorithm yields similar performance with the training and test sets.

Dynamic Denoising of Tracking Sequences

PubMed Central

Michailovich, Oleg; Tannenbaum, Allen

2009-01-01

In this paper, we describe an approach to the problem of simultaneously enhancing image sequences and tracking the objects of interest represented by the latter. The enhancement part of the algorithm is based on Bayesian wavelet denoising, which has been chosen due to its exceptional ability to incorporate diverse a priori information into the process of image recovery. In particular, we demonstrate that, in dynamic settings, useful statistical priors can come both from some reasonable assumptions on the properties of the image to be enhanced as well as from the images that have already been observed before the current scene. Using such priors forms the main contribution of the present paper which is the proposal of the dynamic denoising as a tool for simultaneously enhancing and tracking image sequences. Within the proposed framework, the previous observations of a dynamic scene are employed to enhance its present observation. The mechanism that allows the fusion of the information within successive image frames is Bayesian estimation, while transferring the useful information between the images is governed by a Kalman filter that is used for both prediction and estimation of the dynamics of tracked objects. Therefore, in this methodology, the processes of target tracking and image enhancement “collaborate” in an interlacing manner, rather than being applied separately. The dynamic denoising is demonstrated on several examples of SAR imagery. The results demonstrated in this paper indicate a number of advantages of the proposed dynamic denoising over “static” approaches, in which the tracking images are enhanced independently of each other. PMID:18482881

[Bayesian approach for the cost-effectiveness evaluation of healthcare technologies].

PubMed

Berchialla, Paola; Gregori, Dario; Brunello, Franco; Veltri, Andrea; Petrinco, Michele; Pagano, Eva

2009-01-01

The development of Bayesian statistical methods for the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of health care technologies is reviewed. Although many studies adopt a frequentist approach, several authors have advocated the use of Bayesian methods in health economics. Emphasis has been placed on the advantages of the Bayesian approach, which include: (i) the ability to make more intuitive and meaningful inferences; (ii) the ability to tackle complex problems, such as allowing for the inclusion of patients who generate no cost, thanks to the availability of powerful computational algorithms; (iii) the importance of a full use of quantitative and structural prior information to produce realistic inferences. Much literature comparing the cost-effectiveness of two treatments is based on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. However, new methods are arising with the purpose of decision making. These methods are based on a net benefits approach. In the present context, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves have been pointed out to be intrinsically Bayesian in their formulation. They plot the probability of a positive net benefit against the threshold cost of a unit increase in efficacy.A case study is presented in order to illustrate the Bayesian statistics in the cost-effectiveness analysis. Emphasis is placed on the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Advantages and disadvantages of the method described in this paper have been compared to frequentist methods and discussed.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of gene expression time series across irregularly sampled replicates and clusters.

PubMed

Hensman, James; Lawrence, Neil D; Rattray, Magnus

2013-08-20

Time course data from microarrays and high-throughput sequencing experiments require simple, computationally efficient and powerful statistical models to extract meaningful biological signal, and for tasks such as data fusion and clustering. Existing methodologies fail to capture either the temporal or replicated nature of the experiments, and often impose constraints on the data collection process, such as regularly spaced samples, or similar sampling schema across replications. We propose hierarchical Gaussian processes as a general model of gene expression time-series, with application to a variety of problems. In particular, we illustrate the method's capacity for missing data imputation, data fusion and clustering.The method can impute data which is missing both systematically and at random: in a hold-out test on real data, performance is significantly better than commonly used imputation methods. The method's ability to model inter- and intra-cluster variance leads to more biologically meaningful clusters. The approach removes the necessity for evenly spaced samples, an advantage illustrated on a developmental Drosophila dataset with irregular replications. The hierarchical Gaussian process model provides an excellent statistical basis for several gene-expression time-series tasks. It has only a few additional parameters over a regular GP, has negligible additional complexity, is easily implemented and can be integrated into several existing algorithms. Our experiments were implemented in python, and are available from the authors' website: http://staffwww.dcs.shef.ac.uk/people/J.Hensman/.

Co-fuse: a new class discovery analysis tool to identify and prioritize recurrent fusion genes from RNA-sequencing data.

PubMed

Paisitkriangkrai, Sakrapee; Quek, Kelly; Nievergall, Eva; Jabbour, Anissa; Zannettino, Andrew; Kok, Chung Hoow

2018-06-07

Recurrent oncogenic fusion genes play a critical role in the development of various cancers and diseases and provide, in some cases, excellent therapeutic targets. To date, analysis tools that can identify and compare recurrent fusion genes across multiple samples have not been available to researchers. To address this deficiency, we developed Co-occurrence Fusion (Co-fuse), a new and easy to use software tool that enables biologists to merge RNA-seq information, allowing them to identify recurrent fusion genes, without the need for exhaustive data processing. Notably, Co-fuse is based on pattern mining and statistical analysis which enables the identification of hidden patterns of recurrent fusion genes. In this report, we show that Co-fuse can be used to identify 2 distinct groups within a set of 49 leukemic cell lines based on their recurrent fusion genes: a multiple myeloma (MM) samples-enriched cluster and an acute myeloid leukemia (AML) samples-enriched cluster. Our experimental results further demonstrate that Co-fuse can identify known driver fusion genes (e.g., IGH-MYC, IGH-WHSC1) in MM, when compared to AML samples, indicating the potential of Co-fuse to aid the discovery of yet unknown driver fusion genes through cohort comparisons. Additionally, using a 272 primary glioma sample RNA-seq dataset, Co-fuse was able to validate recurrent fusion genes, further demonstrating the power of this analysis tool to identify recurrent fusion genes. Taken together, Co-fuse is a powerful new analysis tool that can be readily applied to large RNA-seq datasets, and may lead to the discovery of new disease subgroups and potentially new driver genes, for which, targeted therapies could be developed. The Co-fuse R source code is publicly available at https://github.com/sakrapee/co-fuse .

THREAT ANTICIPATION AND DECEPTIVE REASONING USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allgood, Glenn O; Olama, Mohammed M; Lake, Joe E

Recent events highlight the need for tools to anticipate threats posed by terrorists. Assessing these threats requires combining information from disparate data sources such as analytic models, simulations, historical data, sensor networks, and user judgments. These disparate data can be combined in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner using a Bayesian belief network (BBN). In this paper, we develop a BBN threat anticipatory model based on a deceptive reasoning algorithm using a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of the BBN nodes within the broader context of the system development process.

Multiscale Bayesian neural networks for soil water content estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jana, Raghavendra B.; Mohanty, Binayak P.; Springer, Everett P.

2008-08-01

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been used for some time now to estimate soil hydraulic parameters from other available or more easily measurable soil properties. However, most such uses of ANNs as pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have been at matching spatial scales (1:1) of inputs and outputs. This approach assumes that the outputs are only required at the same scale as the input data. Unfortunately, this is rarely true. Different hydrologic, hydroclimatic, and contaminant transport models require soil hydraulic parameter data at different spatial scales, depending upon their grid sizes. While conventional (deterministic) ANNs have been traditionally used in these studies, the use of Bayesian training of ANNs is a more recent development. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework to derive soil water retention function including its uncertainty at the point or local scale using PTFs trained with coarser-scale Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO)-based soil data. The approach includes an ANN trained with Bayesian techniques as a PTF tool with training and validation data collected across spatial extents (scales) in two different regions in the United States. The two study areas include the Las Cruces Trench site in the Rio Grande basin of New Mexico, and the Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP97) hydrology experimental region in Oklahoma. Each region-specific Bayesian ANN is trained using soil texture and bulk density data from the SSURGO database (scale 1:24,000), and predictions of the soil water contents at different pressure heads with point scale data (1:1) inputs are made. The resulting outputs are corrected for bias using both linear and nonlinear correction techniques. The results show good agreement between the soil water content values measured at the point scale and those predicted by the Bayesian ANN-based PTFs for both the study sites. Overall, Bayesian ANNs coupled with nonlinear bias correction are found to be very suitable tools for deriving soil hydraulic parameters at the local/fine scale from soil physical properties at coarser-scale and across different spatial extents. This approach could potentially be used for soil hydraulic properties estimation and downscaling.

Psychological Inflexibility in Childhood and Adolescence: Development and Evaluation of the Avoidance and Fusion Questionnaire for Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greco, Laurie A.; Lambert, Warren; Baer, Ruth A.

2008-01-01

The authors describe the development and validation of the Avoidance and Fusion Questionnaire for Youth (AFQ-Y), a child-report measure of psychological inflexibility engendered by high levels of cognitive fusion and experiential avoidance. Consistent with the theory underlying acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT), items converged into a…

Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

change scenarios. Arctic Expert elicitation Netica Bacon et al . 2002 Identify factors that might lead to a change in land use from farming to...tree) algorithms developed by Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter (1988) and Jensen et al . (1990). Statistical inference is simply the process of...causality when constructing a Bayesian network (Kjaerulff and Madsen 2008, Darwiche 2009, Marcot et al . 2006). A knowledge representation approach is the

Characterizing species at risk. II: Using Bayesian belief networks as decision support tools to determine species conservation categories under the Northwest Forest Plan.

Treesearch

B.G. Marcot; P.A. Hohenlohe; S. Morey; R. Holmes; R. Molina; M.C. Turley; M.H. Huff; J.A. Laurence

2006-01-01

We developed decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) that represented evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive...

HEDP and new directions for fusion energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkpatrick, Ronald C.

2010-06-01

Magnetic-confinement fusion energy and inertia-confinement fusion energy (IFE) represent two extreme approaches to the quest for the application of thermonuclear fusion to electrical energy generation. Blind pursuit of these extreme approaches has long delayed the achievement of their common goal. We point out the possibility of an intermediate approach that promises cheaper, and consequently more rapid development of fusion energy. For example, magneto-inertial fusion appears to be possible over a broad range of parameter space. It is further argued that imposition of artificial constraints impedes the discovery of physics solutions for the fusion energy problem.

Complex Physical, Biophysical and Econophysical Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewar, Robert L.; Detering, Frank

1. Introduction to complex and econophysics systems: a navigation map / T. Aste and T. Di Matteo -- 2. An introduction to fractional diffusion / B. I. Henry, T.A.M. Langlands and P. Straka -- 3. Space plasmas and fusion plasmas as complex systems / R. O. Dendy -- 4. Bayesian data analysis / M. S. Wheatland -- 5. Inverse problems and complexity in earth system science / I. G. Enting -- 6. Applied fluid chaos: designing advection with periodically reoriented flows for micro to geophysical mixing and transport enhancement / G. Metcalfe -- 7. Approaches to modelling the dynamical activity of brain function based on the electroencephalogram / D. T. J. Liley and F. Frascoli -- 8. Jaynes' maximum entropy principle, Riemannian metrics and generalised least action bound / R. K. Niven and B. Andresen -- 9. Complexity, post-genomic biology and gene expression programs / R. B. H. Williams and O. J.-H. Luo -- 10. Tutorials on agent-based modelling with NetLogo and network analysis with Pajek / M. J. Berryman and S. D. Angus.

Combining Video, Audio and Lexical Indicators of Affect in Spontaneous Conversation via Particle Filtering

PubMed Central

Savran, Arman; Cao, Houwei; Shah, Miraj; Nenkova, Ani; Verma, Ragini

2013-01-01

We present experiments on fusing facial video, audio and lexical indicators for affect estimation during dyadic conversations. We use temporal statistics of texture descriptors extracted from facial video, a combination of various acoustic features, and lexical features to create regression based affect estimators for each modality. The single modality regressors are then combined using particle filtering, by treating these independent regression outputs as measurements of the affect states in a Bayesian filtering framework, where previous observations provide prediction about the current state by means of learned affect dynamics. Tested on the Audio-visual Emotion Recognition Challenge dataset, our single modality estimators achieve substantially higher scores than the official baseline method for every dimension of affect. Our filtering-based multi-modality fusion achieves correlation performance of 0.344 (baseline: 0.136) and 0.280 (baseline: 0.096) for the fully continuous and word level sub challenges, respectively. PMID:25300451

Combining Video, Audio and Lexical Indicators of Affect in Spontaneous Conversation via Particle Filtering.

PubMed

Savran, Arman; Cao, Houwei; Shah, Miraj; Nenkova, Ani; Verma, Ragini

2012-01-01

We present experiments on fusing facial video, audio and lexical indicators for affect estimation during dyadic conversations. We use temporal statistics of texture descriptors extracted from facial video, a combination of various acoustic features, and lexical features to create regression based affect estimators for each modality. The single modality regressors are then combined using particle filtering, by treating these independent regression outputs as measurements of the affect states in a Bayesian filtering framework, where previous observations provide prediction about the current state by means of learned affect dynamics. Tested on the Audio-visual Emotion Recognition Challenge dataset, our single modality estimators achieve substantially higher scores than the official baseline method for every dimension of affect. Our filtering-based multi-modality fusion achieves correlation performance of 0.344 (baseline: 0.136) and 0.280 (baseline: 0.096) for the fully continuous and word level sub challenges, respectively.

Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2013-01-01

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework. How can a toolbox model be quantitatively specified? How can the number of toolbox strategies be limited to prevent uncontrolled strategy sprawl? How can a toolbox model be formally tested against alternative theories? The authors show how these challenges can be met by using Bayesian inference techniques. By means of parameter recovery simulations and the analysis of empirical data across a variety of domains (i.e., judgment and decision making, children's cognitive development, function learning, and perceptual categorization), the authors illustrate how Bayesian inference techniques allow toolbox models to be quantitatively specified, strategy sprawl to be contained, and toolbox models to be rigorously tested against competing theories. The authors demonstrate that their approach applies at the individual level but can also be generalized to the group level with hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The suggested Bayesian inference techniques represent a theoretical and methodological advancement for toolbox theories of cognition and behavior.

Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences

PubMed Central

Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric

2016-01-01

Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach (Muthén & Asparouhov, 2012) has been proposed as a way to explore the presence of cross-loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov’s approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike and slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set (Byrne, 2012; Pettegrew & Wolf, 1982) is used to demonstrate our approach. PMID:27314566

Rediscovery of Good-Turing estimators via Bayesian nonparametrics.

PubMed

Favaro, Stefano; Nipoti, Bernardo; Teh, Yee Whye

2016-03-01

The problem of estimating discovery probabilities originated in the context of statistical ecology, and in recent years it has become popular due to its frequent appearance in challenging applications arising in genetics, bioinformatics, linguistics, designs of experiments, machine learning, etc. A full range of statistical approaches, parametric and nonparametric as well as frequentist and Bayesian, has been proposed for estimating discovery probabilities. In this article, we investigate the relationships between the celebrated Good-Turing approach, which is a frequentist nonparametric approach developed in the 1940s, and a Bayesian nonparametric approach recently introduced in the literature. Specifically, under the assumption of a two parameter Poisson-Dirichlet prior, we show that Bayesian nonparametric estimators of discovery probabilities are asymptotically equivalent, for a large sample size, to suitably smoothed Good-Turing estimators. As a by-product of this result, we introduce and investigate a methodology for deriving exact and asymptotic credible intervals to be associated with the Bayesian nonparametric estimators of discovery probabilities. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study and the analysis of Expressed Sequence Tags data generated by sequencing a benchmark complementary DNA library. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

2003-01-01

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hazeltine, Richard D.

The mission of the Institute for Fusion Studies has been to serve as a national center for theoretical fusion and plasma physics research. As an independent scientific group of critical size, its objectives were to conduct research on fundamental phenomena important to fusion; to serve as a center for fusion theory exchange activities with other countries; to exchange scientific developments with other academic disciplines; and to train students and postdoctoral fellows in fusion and plasma physics research.

Homeland security application of the Army Soft Target Exploitation and Fusion (STEF) system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antony, Richard T.; Karakowski, Joseph A.

2010-04-01

A fusion system that accommodates both text-based extracted information along with more conventional sensor-derived input has been developed and demonstrated in a terrorist attack scenario as part of the Empire Challenge (EC) 09 Exercise. Although the fusion system was developed to support Army military analysts, the system, based on a set of foundational fusion principles, has direct applicability to department of homeland security (DHS) & defense, law enforcement, and other applications. Several novel fusion technologies and applications were demonstrated in EC09. One such technology is location normalization that accommodates both fuzzy semantic expressions such as behind Library A, across the street from the market place, as well as traditional spatial representations. Additionally, the fusion system provides a range of fusion products not supported by traditional fusion algorithms. Many of these additional capabilities have direct applicability to DHS. A formal test of the fusion system was performed during the EC09 exercise. The system demonstrated that it was able to (1) automatically form tracks, (2) help analysts visualize behavior of individuals over time, (3) link key individuals based on both explicit message-based information as well as discovered (fusion-derived) implicit relationships, and (4) suggest possible individuals of interest based on their association with High Value Individuals (HVI) and user-defined key locations.

Bayesian non-parametric inference for stochastic epidemic models using Gaussian Processes.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaoguang; Kypraios, Theodore; O'Neill, Philip D

2016-10-01

This paper considers novel Bayesian non-parametric methods for stochastic epidemic models. Many standard modeling and data analysis methods use underlying assumptions (e.g. concerning the rate at which new cases of disease will occur) which are rarely challenged or tested in practice. To relax these assumptions, we develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach using Gaussian Processes, specifically to estimate the infection process. The methods are illustrated with both simulated and real data sets, the former illustrating that the methods can recover the true infection process quite well in practice, and the latter illustrating that the methods can be successfully applied in different settings. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohamed Abdelrahman; roger Haggard; Wagdy Mahmoud

The final goal of this project was the development of a system that is capable of controlling an industrial process effectively through the integration of information obtained through intelligent sensor fusion and intelligent control technologies. The industry of interest in this project was the metal casting industry as represented by cupola iron-melting furnaces. However, the developed technology is of generic type and hence applicable to several other industries. The system was divided into the following four major interacting components: 1. An object oriented generic architecture to integrate the developed software and hardware components @. Generic algorithms for intelligent signal analysismore » and sensor and model fusion 3. Development of supervisory structure for integration of intelligent sensor fusion data into the controller 4. Hardware implementation of intelligent signal analysis and fusion algorithms« less

Fusion Simulation Project Workshop Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kritz, Arnold; Keyes, David

2009-03-01

The mission of the Fusion Simulation Project is to develop a predictive capability for the integrated modeling of magnetically confined plasmas. This FSP report adds to the previous activities that defined an approach to integrated modeling in magnetic fusion. These previous activities included a Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee panel that was charged to study integrated simulation in 2002. The report of that panel [Journal of Fusion Energy 20, 135 (2001)] recommended the prompt initiation of a Fusion Simulation Project. In 2003, the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences formed a steering committee that developed a project vision, roadmap, and governance concepts [Journal of Fusion Energy 23, 1 (2004)]. The current FSP planning effort involved 46 physicists, applied mathematicians and computer scientists, from 21 institutions, formed into four panels and a coordinating committee. These panels were constituted to consider: Status of Physics Components, Required Computational and Applied Mathematics Tools, Integration and Management of Code Components, and Project Structure and Management. The ideas, reported here, are the products of these panels, working together over several months and culminating in a 3-day workshop in May 2007.

A novel framework of tissue membrane systems for image fusion.

PubMed

Zhang, Zulin; Yi, Xinzhong; Peng, Hong

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a tissue membrane system-based framework to deal with the optimal image fusion problem. A spatial domain fusion algorithm is given, and a tissue membrane system of multiple cells is used as its computing framework. Based on the multicellular structure and inherent communication mechanism of the tissue membrane system, an improved velocity-position model is developed. The performance of the fusion framework is studied with comparison of several traditional fusion methods as well as genetic algorithm (GA)-based and differential evolution (DE)-based spatial domain fusion methods. Experimental results show that the proposed fusion framework is superior or comparable to the other methods and can be efficiently used for image fusion.

Comparative interpretations of renormalization inversion technique for reconstructing unknown emissions from measured atmospheric concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sarvesh Kumar; Kumar, Pramod; Rani, Raj; Turbelin, Grégory

2017-04-01

The study highlights a theoretical comparison and various interpretations of a recent inversion technique, called renormalization, developed for the reconstruction of unknown tracer emissions from their measured concentrations. The comparative interpretations are presented in relation to the other inversion techniques based on principle of regularization, Bayesian, minimum norm, maximum entropy on mean, and model resolution optimization. It is shown that the renormalization technique can be interpreted in a similar manner to other techniques, with a practical choice of a priori information and error statistics, while eliminating the need of additional constraints. The study shows that the proposed weight matrix and weighted Gram matrix offer a suitable deterministic choice to the background error and measurement covariance matrices, respectively, in the absence of statistical knowledge about background and measurement errors. The technique is advantageous since it (i) utilizes weights representing a priori information apparent to the monitoring network, (ii) avoids dependence on background source estimates, (iii) improves on alternative choices for the error statistics, (iv) overcomes the colocalization problem in a natural manner, and (v) provides an optimally resolved source reconstruction. A comparative illustration of source retrieval is made by using the real measurements from a continuous point release conducted in Fusion Field Trials, Dugway Proving Ground, Utah.

Optimal speckle noise reduction filter for range gated laser illuminated imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayton, David; Gonglewski, John; Lasche, James; Hassall, Arthur

2016-09-01

Laser illuminated imaging has a number of applications in the areas of night time air-to-ground target surveillance, ID, and pointing and tracking. Using a laser illuminator, the illumination intensity and thus the signal to noise ratio can be controlled. With the advent of high performance range gated cameras in the short-wave infra-red band, higher spatial resolution can be achieved over passive thermal night imaging cameras in the mid-wave infra-red due to the shorter wave-length. If a coherent illuminator is used the resulting imagery often suffers from speckle noise due to the scattering off of a rough target surface, which gives it a grainy "salt and pepper" appearance. The probability density function for the intensity of focal plane speckle is well understood to follow a negative exponential distribution. This can be exploited to develop a Bayesian speckle noise filter. The filter has the advantage over simple frame averaging approaches in that it preserves target features and motion while reducing speckle noise without smearing or blurring the images. The resulting filtered images have the appearance of passive imagery and so are more amenable to sensor fusion with simultaneous mid-wave infra-red thermal images for enhanced target ID. The noise filter improvement is demonstrated using examples from real world laser imaging tests on tactical targets.

A review on machine learning principles for multi-view biological data integration.

PubMed

Li, Yifeng; Wu, Fang-Xiang; Ngom, Alioune

2018-03-01

Driven by high-throughput sequencing techniques, modern genomic and clinical studies are in a strong need of integrative machine learning models for better use of vast volumes of heterogeneous information in the deep understanding of biological systems and the development of predictive models. How data from multiple sources (called multi-view data) are incorporated in a learning system is a key step for successful analysis. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review on omics and clinical data integration techniques, from a machine learning perspective, for various analyses such as prediction, clustering, dimension reduction and association. We shall show that Bayesian models are able to use prior information and model measurements with various distributions; tree-based methods can either build a tree with all features or collectively make a final decision based on trees learned from each view; kernel methods fuse the similarity matrices learned from individual views together for a final similarity matrix or learning model; network-based fusion methods are capable of inferring direct and indirect associations in a heterogeneous network; matrix factorization models have potential to learn interactions among features from different views; and a range of deep neural networks can be integrated in multi-modal learning for capturing the complex mechanism of biological systems.

Influence versus intent for predictive analytics in situation awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Biru; Yang, Shanchieh J.; Kadar, Ivan

2013-05-01

Predictive analytics in situation awareness requires an element to comprehend and anticipate potential adversary activities that might occur in the future. Most work in high level fusion or predictive analytics utilizes machine learning, pattern mining, Bayesian inference, and decision tree techniques to predict future actions or states. The emergence of social computing in broader contexts has drawn interests in bringing the hypotheses and techniques from social theory to algorithmic and computational settings for predictive analytics. This paper aims at answering the question on how influence and attitude (some interpreted such as intent) of adversarial actors can be formulated and computed algorithmically, as a higher level fusion process to provide predictions of future actions. The challenges in this interdisciplinary endeavor include drawing existing understanding of influence and attitude in both social science and computing fields, as well as the mathematical and computational formulation for the specific context of situation to be analyzed. The study of `influence' has resurfaced in recent years due to the emergence of social networks in the virtualized cyber world. Theoretical analysis and techniques developed in this area are discussed in this paper in the context of predictive analysis. Meanwhile, the notion of intent, or `attitude' using social theory terminologies, is a relatively uncharted area in the computing field. Note that a key objective of predictive analytics is to identify impending/planned attacks so their `impact' and `threat' can be prevented. In this spirit, indirect and direct observables are drawn and derived to infer the influence network and attitude to predict future threats. This work proposes an integrated framework that jointly assesses adversarial actors' influence network and their attitudes as a function of past actions and action outcomes. A preliminary set of algorithms are developed and tested using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Our results reveals the benefits to perform joint predictive analytics with both attitude and influence. At the same time, we discover significant challenges in deriving influence and attitude from indirect observables for diverse adversarial behavior. These observations warrant further investigation of optimal use of influence and attitude for predictive analytics, as well as the potential inclusion of other environmental or capability elements for the actors.

Complex epithelial remodeling underlie the fusion event in early fetal development of the human penile urethra.

PubMed

Shen, Joel; Overland, Maya; Sinclair, Adriane; Cao, Mei; Yue, Xuan; Cunha, Gerald; Baskin, Laurence

We recently described a two-step process of urethral plate canalization and urethral fold fusion to form the human penile urethra. Canalization ("opening zipper") opens the solid urethral plate into a groove, and fusion ("closing zipper") closes the urethral groove to form the penile urethra. We hypothesize that failure of canalization and/or fusion during human urethral formation can lead to hypospadias. Herein, we use scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and analysis of transverse serial sections to better characterize development of the human fetal penile urethra as contrasted to the development of the human fetal clitoris. Eighteen 7-13 week human fetal external genitalia specimens were analyzed by SEM, and fifteen additional human fetal specimens were sectioned for histologic analysis. SEM images demonstrate canalization of the urethral/vestibular plate in the developing male and female external genitalia, respectively, followed by proximal to distal fusion of the urethral folds in males only. The fusion process during penile development occurs sequentially in multiple layers and through the interlacing of epidermal "cords". Complex epithelial organization is also noted at the site of active canalization. The demarcation between the epidermis of the shaft and the glans becomes distinct during development, and the epithelial tag at the distal tip of the penile and clitoral glans regresses as development progresses. In summary, SEM analysis of human fetal specimens supports the two-zipper hypothesis of formation of the penile urethra. The opening zipper progresses from proximal to distal along the shaft of the penis and clitoris into the glans in identical fashion in both sexes. The closing zipper mechanism is active only in males and is not a single process but rather a series of layered fusion events, uniquely different from the simple fusion of two epithelial surfaces as occurs in formation of the palate and neural tube. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Differentiation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of DEMO-FNS tokamak for fusion and hybrid technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuteev, B. V.; Azizov, E. A.; Alexeev, P. N.; Ignatiev, V. V.; Subbotin, S. A.; Tsibulskiy, V. F.

2015-07-01

The history of fusion-fission hybrid systems based on a tokamak device as an extremely efficient DT-fusion neutron source has passed through several periods of ample research activity in the world since the very beginning of fusion research in the 1950s. Recently, a new roadmap of the hybrid program has been proposed with the goal to build a pilot hybrid plant (PHP) in Russia by 2030. Development of the DEMO-FNS tokamak for fusion and hybrid technologies, which is planned to be built by 2023, is the key milestone on the path to the PHP. This facility is in the phase of conceptual design aimed at providing feasibility studies for a full set of steady state tokamak technologies at a fusion energy gain factor Q ˜ 1, fusion power of ˜40 MW and opportunities for testing a wide range of hybrid technologies with the emphasis on continuous nuclide processing in molten salts. This paper describes the project motivations, its current status and the key issues of the design.

Z-Pinch Fusion for Energy Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

SPIELMAN,RICK B.

2000-01-01

Z pinches, the oldest fusion concept, have recently been revisited in light of significant advances in the fields of plasma physics and pulsed power engineering. The possibility exists for z-pinch fusion to play a role in commercial energy applications. We report on work to develop z-pinch fusion concepts, the result of an extensive literature search, and the output for a congressionally-mandated workshop on fusion energy held in Snowmass, Co July 11-23,1999.

Bayesian algorithm implementation in a real time exposure assessment model on benzene with calculation of associated cancer risks.

PubMed

Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Gotti, Alberto; Papaloukas, Costas L; Kassomenos, Pavlos A; Pilidis, Georgios A

2009-01-01

The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded) determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK) risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural). Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations.

Bayesian Algorithm Implementation in a Real Time Exposure Assessment Model on Benzene with Calculation of Associated Cancer Risks

PubMed Central

Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A.; Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Gotti, Alberto; Papaloukas, Costas L.; Kassomenos, Pavlos A.; Pilidis, Georgios A.

2009-01-01

The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded) determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK) risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural). Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations. PMID:22399936

FusionHub: A unified web platform for annotation and visualization of gene fusion events in human cancer.

PubMed

Panigrahi, Priyabrata; Jere, Abhay; Anamika, Krishanpal

2018-01-01

Gene fusion is a chromosomal rearrangement event which plays a significant role in cancer due to the oncogenic potential of the chimeric protein generated through fusions. At present many databases are available in public domain which provides detailed information about known gene fusion events and their functional role. Existing gene fusion detection tools, based on analysis of transcriptomics data usually report a large number of fusion genes as potential candidates, which could be either known or novel or false positives. Manual annotation of these putative genes is indeed time-consuming. We have developed a web platform FusionHub, which acts as integrated search engine interfacing various fusion gene databases and simplifies large scale annotation of fusion genes in a seamless way. In addition, FusionHub provides three ways of visualizing fusion events: circular view, domain architecture view and network view. Design of potential siRNA molecules through ensemble method is another utility integrated in FusionHub that could aid in siRNA-based targeted therapy. FusionHub is freely available at https://fusionhub.persistent.co.in.

Fusion and quality analysis for remote sensing images using contourlet transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Yoonsuk; Sharifahmadian, Ershad; Latifi, Shahram

2013-05-01

Recent developments in remote sensing technologies have provided various images with high spatial and spectral resolutions. However, multispectral images have low spatial resolution and panchromatic images have low spectral resolution. Therefore, image fusion techniques are necessary to improve the spatial resolution of spectral images by injecting spatial details of high-resolution panchromatic images. The objective of image fusion is to provide useful information by improving the spatial resolution and the spectral information of the original images. The fusion results can be utilized in various applications, such as military, medical imaging, and remote sensing. This paper addresses two issues in image fusion: i) image fusion method and ii) quality analysis of fusion results. First, a new contourlet-based image fusion method is presented, which is an improvement over the wavelet-based fusion. This fusion method is then applied to a case study to demonstrate its fusion performance. Fusion framework and scheme used in the study are discussed in detail. Second, quality analysis for the fusion results is discussed. We employed various quality metrics in order to analyze the fusion results both spatially and spectrally. Our results indicate that the proposed contourlet-based fusion method performs better than the conventional wavelet-based fusion methods.

Sparse-grid, reduced-basis Bayesian inversion: Nonaffine-parametric nonlinear equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Peng, E-mail: peng@ices.utexas.edu; Schwab, Christoph, E-mail: christoph.schwab@sam.math.ethz.ch

2016-07-01

We extend the reduced basis (RB) accelerated Bayesian inversion methods for affine-parametric, linear operator equations which are considered in [16,17] to non-affine, nonlinear parametric operator equations. We generalize the analysis of sparsity of parametric forward solution maps in [20] and of Bayesian inversion in [48,49] to the fully discrete setting, including Petrov–Galerkin high-fidelity (“HiFi”) discretization of the forward maps. We develop adaptive, stochastic collocation based reduction methods for the efficient computation of reduced bases on the parametric solution manifold. The nonaffinity and nonlinearity with respect to (w.r.t.) the distributed, uncertain parameters and the unknown solution is collocated; specifically, by themore » so-called Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). For the corresponding Bayesian inversion problems, computational efficiency is enhanced in two ways: first, expectations w.r.t. the posterior are computed by adaptive quadratures with dimension-independent convergence rates proposed in [49]; the present work generalizes [49] to account for the impact of the PG discretization in the forward maps on the convergence rates of the Quantities of Interest (QoI for short). Second, we propose to perform the Bayesian estimation only w.r.t. a parsimonious, RB approximation of the posterior density. Based on the approximation results in [49], the infinite-dimensional parametric, deterministic forward map and operator admit N-term RB and EIM approximations which converge at rates which depend only on the sparsity of the parametric forward map. In several numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms exhibit dimension-independent convergence rates which equal, at least, the currently known rate estimates for N-term approximation. We propose to accelerate Bayesian estimation by first offline construction of reduced basis surrogates of the Bayesian posterior density. The parsimonious surrogates can then be employed for online data assimilation and for Bayesian estimation. They also open a perspective for optimal experimental design.« less

Fusion Materials Research at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Fiscal Year 2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiffen, Frederick W.; Noe, Susan P.; Snead, Lance Lewis

2014-10-01

The realization of fusion energy is a formidable challenge with significant achievements resulting from close integration of the plasma physics and applied technology disciplines. Presently, the most significant technological challenge for the near-term experiments such as ITER, and next generation fusion power systems, is the inability of current materials and components to withstand the harsh fusion nuclear environment. The overarching goal of the ORNL fusion materials program is to provide the applied materials science support and understanding to underpin the ongoing DOE Office of Science fusion energy program while developing materials for fusion power systems. In doing so the programmore » continues to be integrated both with the larger U.S. and international fusion materials communities, and with the international fusion design and technology communities.« less

Path to Market for Compact Modular Fusion Power Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodruff, Simon; Baerny, Jennifer K.; Mattor, Nathan; Stoulil, Don; Miller, Ronald; Marston, Theodore

2012-08-01

The benefits of an energy source whose reactants are plentiful and whose products are benign is hard to measure, but at no time in history has this energy source been more needed. Nuclear fusion continues to promise to be this energy source. However, the path to market for fusion systems is still regularly a matter for long-term (20 + year) plans. This white paper is intended to stimulate discussion of faster commercialization paths, distilling guidance from investors, utilities, and the wider energy research community (including from ARPA-E). There is great interest in a small modular fusion system that can be developed quickly and inexpensively. A simple model shows how compact modular fusion can produce a low cost development path by optimizing traditional systems that burn deuterium and tritium, operating not only at high magnetic field strength, but also by omitting some components that allow for the core to become more compact and easier to maintain. The dominant hurdles to the development of low cost, practical fusion systems are discussed, primarily in terms of the constraints placed on the cost of development stages in the private sector. The main finding presented here is that the bridge from DOE Office of Science to the energy market can come at the Proof of Principle development stage, providing the concept is sufficiently compact and inexpensive that its development allows for a normal technology commercialization path.

Bayesian Forecasting Tool to Predict the Need for Antidote in Acute Acetaminophen Overdose.

PubMed

Desrochers, Julie; Wojciechowski, Jessica; Klein-Schwartz, Wendy; Gobburu, Jogarao V S; Gopalakrishnan, Mathangi

2017-08-01

Acetaminophen (APAP) overdose is the leading cause of acute liver injury in the United States. Patients with elevated plasma acetaminophen concentrations (PACs) require hepatoprotective treatment with N-acetylcysteine (NAC). These patients have been primarily risk-stratified using the Rumack-Matthew nomogram. Previous studies of acute APAP overdoses found that the nomogram failed to accurately predict the need for the antidote. The objectives of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model for APAP following acute overdose and evaluate the utility of population PK model-based Bayesian forecasting in NAC administration decisions. Limited APAP concentrations from a retrospective cohort of acute overdosed subjects from the Maryland Poison Center were used to develop the population PK model and to investigate the effect of type of APAP products and other prognostic factors. The externally validated population PK model was used a prior for Bayesian forecasting to predict the individual PK profile when one or two observed PACs were available. The utility of Bayesian forecasted APAP concentration-time profiles inferred from one (first) or two (first and second) PAC observations were also tested in their ability to predict the observed NAC decisions. A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination adequately described the data with single activated charcoal and APAP products as significant covariates on absorption and bioavailability. The Bayesian forecasted individual concentration-time profiles had acceptable bias (6.2% and 9.8%) and accuracy (40.5% and 41.9%) when either one or two PACs were considered, respectively. The sensitivity and negative predictive value of the Bayesian forecasted NAC decisions using one PAC were 84% and 92.6%, respectively. The population PK analysis provided a platform for acceptably predicting an individual's concentration-time profile following acute APAP overdose with at least one PAC, and the individual's covariate profile, and can potentially be used for making early NAC administration decisions. © 2017 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

Spatial focalization of pheromone/MAPK signaling triggers commitment to cell–cell fusion

PubMed Central

Merlini, Laura

2016-01-01

Cell fusion is universal in eukaryotes for fertilization and development, but what signals this process is unknown. Here, we show in Schizosaccharomyces pombe that fusion does not require a dedicated signal but is triggered by spatial focalization of the same pheromone–GPCR (G-protein-coupled receptor)–MAPK signaling cascade that drives earlier mating events. Autocrine cells expressing the receptor for their own pheromone trigger fusion attempts independently of cell–cell contact by concentrating pheromone release at the fusion focus, a dynamic actin aster underlying the secretion of cell wall hydrolases. Pheromone receptor and MAPK cascade are similarly enriched at the fusion focus, concomitant with fusion commitment in wild-type mating pairs. This focalization promotes cell fusion by immobilizing the fusion focus, thus driving local cell wall dissolution. We propose that fusion commitment is imposed by a local increase in MAPK concentration at the fusion focus, driven by a positive feedback between fusion focus formation and focalization of pheromone release and perception. PMID:27798845

Planetary micro-rover operations on Mars using a Bayesian framework for inference and control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Mark A.; Li, Junquan; Quine, Brendan M.

2016-03-01

With the recent progress toward the application of commercially-available hardware to small-scale space missions, it is now becoming feasible for groups of small, efficient robots based on low-power embedded hardware to perform simple tasks on other planets in the place of large-scale, heavy and expensive robots. In this paper, we describe design and programming of the Beaver micro-rover developed for Northern Light, a Canadian initiative to send a small lander and rover to Mars to study the Martian surface and subsurface. For a small, hardware-limited rover to handle an uncertain and mostly unknown environment without constant management by human operators, we use a Bayesian network of discrete random variables as an abstraction of expert knowledge about the rover and its environment, and inference operations for control. A framework for efficient construction and inference into a Bayesian network using only the C language and fixed-point mathematics on embedded hardware has been developed for the Beaver to make intelligent decisions with minimal sensor data. We study the performance of the Beaver as it probabilistically maps a simple outdoor environment with sensor models that include uncertainty. Results indicate that the Beaver and other small and simple robotic platforms can make use of a Bayesian network to make intelligent decisions in uncertain planetary environments.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Glacial Dynamics Based on the Shallow Ice Approximation and its Evaluation Using Analytical Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalan, Giri; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Pálsson, Finnur

2018-03-01

Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatio-temporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.

Lead isotope ratios for bullets, forensic evaluation in a Bayesian paradigm.

PubMed

Sjåstad, Knut-Endre; Lucy, David; Andersen, Tom

2016-01-01

Forensic science is a discipline concerned with collection, examination and evaluation of physical evidence related to criminal cases. The results from the activities of the forensic scientist may ultimately be presented to the court in such a way that the triers of fact understand the implications of the data. Forensic science has been, and still is, driven by development of new technology, and in the last two decades evaluation of evidence based on logical reasoning and Bayesian statistic has reached some level of general acceptance within the forensic community. Tracing of lead fragments of unknown origin to a given source of ammunition is a task that might be of interest for the Court. Use of data from lead isotope ratios analysis interpreted within a Bayesian framework has shown to be suitable method to guide the Court to draw their conclusion for such task. In this work we have used isotopic composition of lead from small arms projectiles (cal. .22) and developed an approach based on Bayesian statistics and likelihood ratio calculation. The likelihood ratio is a single quantity that provides a measure of the value of evidence that can be used in the deliberation of the court. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian approach for assessing non-inferiority in a three-arm trial with pre-specified margin.

PubMed

Ghosh, Samiran; Ghosh, Santu; Tiwari, Ram C

2016-02-28

Non-inferiority trials are becoming increasingly popular for comparative effectiveness research. However, inclusion of the placebo arm, whenever possible, gives rise to a three-arm trial which has lesser burdensome assumptions than a standard two-arm non-inferiority trial. Most of the past developments in a three-arm trial consider defining a pre-specified fraction of unknown effect size of reference drug, that is, without directly specifying a fixed non-inferiority margin. However, in some recent developments, a more direct approach is being considered with pre-specified fixed margin albeit in the frequentist setup. Bayesian paradigm provides a natural path to integrate historical and current trials' information via sequential learning. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach for simultaneous testing of non-inferiority and assay sensitivity in a three-arm trial with normal responses. For the experimental arm, in absence of historical information, non-informative priors are assumed under two situations, namely when (i) variance is known and (ii) variance is unknown. A Bayesian decision criteria is derived and compared with the frequentist method using simulation studies. Finally, several published clinical trial examples are reanalyzed to demonstrate the benefit of the proposed procedure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for mortality data from cluster-sampling household surveys in humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Heudtlass, Peter; Guha-Sapir, Debarati; Speybroeck, Niko

2018-05-31

The crude death rate (CDR) is one of the defining indicators of humanitarian emergencies. When data from vital registration systems are not available, it is common practice to estimate the CDR from household surveys with cluster-sampling design. However, sample sizes are often too small to compare mortality estimates to emergency thresholds, at least in a frequentist framework. Several authors have proposed Bayesian methods for health surveys in humanitarian crises. Here, we develop an approach specifically for mortality data and cluster-sampling surveys. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson-Gamma mixture model with generic (weakly informative) priors that could be used as default in absence of any specific prior knowledge, and compare Bayesian and frequentist CDR estimates using five different mortality datasets. We provide an interpretation of the Bayesian estimates in the context of an emergency threshold and demonstrate how to interpret parameters at the cluster level and ways in which informative priors can be introduced. With the same set of weakly informative priors, Bayesian CDR estimates are equivalent to frequentist estimates, for all practical purposes. The probability that the CDR surpasses the emergency threshold can be derived directly from the posterior of the mean of the mixing distribution. All observation in the datasets contribute to the estimation of cluster-level estimates, through the hierarchical structure of the model. In a context of sparse data, Bayesian mortality assessments have advantages over frequentist ones already when using only weakly informative priors. More informative priors offer a formal and transparent way of combining new data with existing data and expert knowledge and can help to improve decision-making in humanitarian crises by complementing frequentist estimates.

Identification of transmissivity fields using a Bayesian strategy and perturbative approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanini, Andrea; Tanda, Maria Giovanna; Woodbury, Allan D.

2017-10-01

The paper deals with the crucial problem of the groundwater parameter estimation that is the basis for efficient modeling and reclamation activities. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is developed: it uses the Akaike's Bayesian Information Criteria in order to estimate the hyperparameters (related to the covariance model chosen) and to quantify the unknown noise variance. The transmissivity identification proceeds in two steps: the first, called empirical Bayesian interpolation, uses Y* (Y = lnT) observations to interpolate Y values on a specified grid; the second, called empirical Bayesian update, improve the previous Y estimate through the addition of hydraulic head observations. The relationship between the head and the lnT has been linearized through a perturbative solution of the flow equation. In order to test the proposed approach, synthetic aquifers from literature have been considered. The aquifers in question contain a variety of boundary conditions (both Dirichelet and Neuman type) and scales of heterogeneities (σY2 = 1.0 and σY2 = 5.3). The estimated transmissivity fields were compared to the true one. The joint use of Y* and head measurements improves the estimation of Y considering both degrees of heterogeneity. Even if the variance of the strong transmissivity field can be considered high for the application of the perturbative approach, the results show the same order of approximation of the non-linear methods proposed in literature. The procedure allows to compute the posterior probability distribution of the target quantities and to quantify the uncertainty in the model prediction. Bayesian updating has advantages related both to the Monte-Carlo (MC) and non-MC approaches. In fact, as the MC methods, Bayesian updating allows computing the direct posterior probability distribution of the target quantities and as non-MC methods it has computational times in the order of seconds.

High-energy krypton fluoride lasers for inertial fusion.

PubMed

Obenschain, Stephen; Lehmberg, Robert; Kehne, David; Hegeler, Frank; Wolford, Matthew; Sethian, John; Weaver, James; Karasik, Max

2015-11-01

Laser fusion researchers have realized since the 1970s that the deep UV light from excimer lasers would be an advantage as a driver for robust high-performance capsule implosions for inertial confinement fusion (ICF). Most of this research has centered on the krypton-fluoride (KrF) laser. In this article we review the advantages of the KrF laser for direct-drive ICF, the history of high-energy KrF laser development, and the present state of the art and describe a development path to the performance needed for laser fusion and its energy application. We include descriptions of the architecture and performance of the multi-kilojoule Nike KrF laser-target facility and the 700 J Electra high-repetition-rate KrF laser that were developed at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. Nike and Electra are the most advanced KrF lasers for inertial fusion research and energy applications.

Multisensor data fusion for integrated maritime surveillance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premji, A.; Ponsford, A. M.

1995-01-01

A prototype Integrated Coastal Surveillance system has been developed on Canada's East Coast to provide effective surveillance out to and beyond the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone. The system has been designed to protect Canada's natural resources, and to monitor and control the coastline for smuggling, drug trafficking, and similar illegal activity. This paper describes the Multiple Sensor - Multiple Target data fusion system that has been developed. The fusion processor has been developed around the celebrated Multiple Hypothesis Tracking algorithm which accommodates multiple targets, new targets, false alarms, and missed detections. This processor performs four major functions: plot-to-track association to form individual radar tracks; fusion of radar tracks with secondary sensor reports; track identification and tagging using secondary reports; and track level fusion to form common tracks. Radar data from coherent and non-coherent radars has been used to evaluate the performance of the processor. This paper presents preliminary results.

The High Field Path to Practical Fusion Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mumgaard, Robert; Whyte, D.; Greenwald, M.; Hartwig, Z.; Brunner, D.; Sorbom, B.; Marmar, E.; Minervini, J.; Bonoli, P.; Irby, J.; Labombard, B.; Terry, J.; Vieira, R.; Wukitch, S.

2017-10-01

We propose a faster, lower cost development path for fusion energy enabled by high temperature superconductors, devices at high magnetic field, innovative technologies and modern approaches to technology development. Timeliness, scale, and economic-viability are the drivers for fusion energy to combat climate change and aid economic development. The opportunities provided by high-temperature superconductors, innovative engineering and physics, and new organizational structures identified over the last few years open new possibilities for realizing practical fusion energy that could meet mid-century de-carbonization needs. We discuss re-factoring the fusion energy development path with an emphasis on concrete risk retirement strategies utilizing a modular approach based on the high-field tokamak that leverages the broader tokamak physics understanding of confinement, stability, and operational limits. Elements of this plan include development of high-temperature superconductor magnets, simplified immersion blankets, advanced long-leg divertors, a compact divertor test tokamak, efficient current drive, modular construction, and demountable magnet joints. An R&D plan culminating in the construction of an integrated pilot plant and test facility modeled on the ARC concept is presented.

Revised standards for statistical evidence.

PubMed

Johnson, Valen E

2013-11-26

Recent advances in Bayesian hypothesis testing have led to the development of uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests, which represent an objective, default class of Bayesian hypothesis tests that have the same rejection regions as classical significance tests. Based on the correspondence between these two classes of tests, it is possible to equate the size of classical hypothesis tests with evidence thresholds in Bayesian tests, and to equate P values with Bayes factors. An examination of these connections suggest that recent concerns over the lack of reproducibility of scientific studies can be attributed largely to the conduct of significance tests at unjustifiably high levels of significance. To correct this problem, evidence thresholds required for the declaration of a significant finding should be increased to 25-50:1, and to 100-200:1 for the declaration of a highly significant finding. In terms of classical hypothesis tests, these evidence standards mandate the conduct of tests at the 0.005 or 0.001 level of significance.

Confidence of compliance: a Bayesian approach for percentile standards.

PubMed

McBride, G B; Ellis, J C

2001-04-01

Rules for assessing compliance with percentile standards commonly limit the number of exceedances permitted in a batch of samples taken over a defined assessment period. Such rules are commonly developed using classical statistical methods. Results from alternative Bayesian methods are presented (using beta-distributed prior information and a binomial likelihood), resulting in "confidence of compliance" graphs. These allow simple reading of the consumer's risk and the supplier's risks for any proposed rule. The influence of the prior assumptions required by the Bayesian technique on the confidence results is demonstrated, using two reference priors (uniform and Jeffreys') and also using optimistic and pessimistic user-defined priors. All four give less pessimistic results than does the classical technique, because interpreting classical results as "confidence of compliance" actually invokes a Bayesian approach with an extreme prior distribution. Jeffreys' prior is shown to be the most generally appropriate choice of prior distribution. Cost savings can be expected using rules based on this approach.

Robust Bayesian Analysis of Heavy-tailed Stochastic Volatility Models using Scale Mixtures of Normal Distributions

PubMed Central

Abanto-Valle, C. A.; Bandyopadhyay, D.; Lachos, V. H.; Enriquez, I.

2009-01-01

A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of- sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model. PMID:20730043

Bayesian hierarchical model of ceftriaxone resistance proportions among Salmonella serotype Heidelberg infections.

PubMed

Gu, Weidong; Medalla, Felicita; Hoekstra, Robert M

2018-02-01

The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracks resistance among Salmonella infections. The annual number of Salmonella isolates of a particular serotype from states may be small, making direct estimation of resistance proportions unreliable. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to improve estimation by borrowing strength from relevant sampling units. We illustrate the models with different specifications of spatio-temporal interaction using 2004-2013 NARMS data for ceftriaxone-resistant Salmonella serotype Heidelberg. Our results show that Bayesian estimates of resistance proportions were smoother than observed values, and the difference between predicted and observed proportions was inversely related to the number of submitted isolates. The model with interaction allowed for tracking of annual changes in resistance proportions at the state level. We demonstrated that Bayesian hierarchical models provide a useful tool to examine spatio-temporal patterns of small sample size such as those found in NARMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Time-varying nonstationary multivariate risk analysis using a dynamic Bayesian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Concepción Ausín, María.; Wiper, Michael P.

2016-03-01

A time-varying risk analysis is proposed for an adaptive design framework in nonstationary conditions arising from climate change. A Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula is developed for modeling the time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete multiattributes of multidimensional hydrometeorological phenomena. Joint Bayesian inference is carried out to fit the marginals and copula in an illustrative example using an adaptive, Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Posterior mean estimates and credible intervals are provided for the model parameters and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the model that best captures different forms of nonstationarity over time. This study also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period for multivariate time-dependent risk analysis in nonstationary environments. The results demonstrate that the nature and the risk of extreme-climate multidimensional processes are changed over time under the impact of climate change, and accordingly the long-term decision making strategies should be updated based on the anomalies of the nonstationary environment.

Bayesian analysis of caustic-crossing microlensing events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassan, A.; Horne, K.; Kains, N.; Tsapras, Y.; Browne, P.

2010-06-01

Aims: Caustic-crossing binary-lens microlensing events are important anomalous events because they are capable of detecting an extrasolar planet companion orbiting the lens star. Fast and robust modelling methods are thus of prime interest in helping to decide whether a planet is detected by an event. Cassan introduced a new set of parameters to model binary-lens events, which are closely related to properties of the light curve. In this work, we explain how Bayesian priors can be added to this framework, and investigate on interesting options. Methods: We develop a mathematical formulation that allows us to compute analytically the priors on the new parameters, given some previous knowledge about other physical quantities. We explicitly compute the priors for a number of interesting cases, and show how this can be implemented in a fully Bayesian, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results: Using Bayesian priors can accelerate microlens fitting codes by reducing the time spent considering physically implausible models, and helps us to discriminate between alternative models based on the physical plausibility of their parameters.

Bayesian Action–Perception Computational Model: Interaction of Production and Recognition of Cursive Letters

PubMed Central

Gilet, Estelle; Diard, Julien; Bessière, Pierre

2011-01-01

In this paper, we study the collaboration of perception and action representations involved in cursive letter recognition and production. We propose a mathematical formulation for the whole perception–action loop, based on probabilistic modeling and Bayesian inference, which we call the Bayesian Action–Perception (BAP) model. Being a model of both perception and action processes, the purpose of this model is to study the interaction of these processes. More precisely, the model includes a feedback loop from motor production, which implements an internal simulation of movement. Motor knowledge can therefore be involved during perception tasks. In this paper, we formally define the BAP model and show how it solves the following six varied cognitive tasks using Bayesian inference: i) letter recognition (purely sensory), ii) writer recognition, iii) letter production (with different effectors), iv) copying of trajectories, v) copying of letters, and vi) letter recognition (with internal simulation of movements). We present computer simulations of each of these cognitive tasks, and discuss experimental predictions and theoretical developments. PMID:21674043

Bayesian generalized least squares regression with application to log Pearson type 3 regional skew estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, D. S.; Stedinger, J. R.; Martins, E. S.

2005-10-01

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to analysis of a generalized least squares (GLS) regression model for regional analyses of hydrologic data. The new approach allows computation of the posterior distributions of the parameters and the model error variance using a quasi-analytic approach. Two regional skew estimation studies illustrate the value of the Bayesian GLS approach for regional statistical analysis of a shape parameter and demonstrate that regional skew models can be relatively precise with effective record lengths in excess of 60 years. With Bayesian GLS the marginal posterior distribution of the model error variance and the corresponding mean and variance of the parameters can be computed directly, thereby providing a simple but important extension of the regional GLS regression procedures popularized by Tasker and Stedinger (1989), which is sensitive to the likely values of the model error variance when it is small relative to the sampling error in the at-site estimator.

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

Engineering human cell spheroids to model embryonic tissue fusion in vitro

PubMed Central

Wolf, Cynthia J.; Wood, Carmen; Ren, Hongzu; Grindstaff, Rachel; Padgett, William; Swank, Adam; MacMillan, Denise; Fisher, Anna; Winnik, Witold; Abbott, Barbara D.

2017-01-01

Epithelial-mesenchymal interactions drive embryonic fusion events during development, and perturbations of these interactions can result in birth defects. Cleft palate and neural tube defects can result from genetic defects or environmental exposures during development, yet very little is known about the effect of chemical exposures on fusion events during human development because of a lack of relevant and robust human in vitro assays of developmental fusion behavior. Given the etiology and prevalence of cleft palate and the relatively simple architecture and composition of the embryonic palate, we sought to develop a three-dimensional culture system that mimics the embryonic palate and could be used to study fusion behavior in vitro using human cells. We engineered size-controlled human Wharton’s Jelly stromal cell (HWJSC) spheroids and established that 7 days of culture in osteogenesis differentiation medium was sufficient to promote an osteogenic phenotype consistent with embryonic palatal mesenchyme. HWJSC spheroids supported the attachment of human epidermal keratinocyte progenitor cells (HPEKp) on the outer spheroid surface likely through deposition of collagens I and IV, fibronectin, and laminin by mesenchymal spheroids. HWJSC spheroids coated in HPEKp cells exhibited fusion behavior in culture, as indicated by the removal of epithelial cells from the seams between spheroids, that was dependent on epidermal growth factor signaling and fibroblast growth factor signaling in agreement with palate fusion literature. The method described here may broadly apply to the generation of three-dimensional epithelial-mesenchymal co-cultures to study developmental fusion events in a format that is amenable to predictive toxicology applications. PMID:28898253

Lunar He-3, fusion propulsion, and space development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santarius, John F.

1992-01-01

The recent identification of a substantial lunar resource of the fusion energy fuel He-3 may provide the first terrestrial market for a lunar commodity and, therefore, a major impetus to lunar development. The impact of this resource-when burned in D-He-3 fusion reactors for space power and propulsion-may be even more significant as an enabling technology for safe, efficient exploration and development of space. One possible reactor configuration among several options, the tandem mirror, illustrates the potential advantages of fusion propulsion. The most important advantage is the ability to provide either fast, piloted vessels or high-payload-fraction cargo vessels due to a range of specific impulses from 50 sec to 1,000,000 sec at thrust-to-weight ratios from 0.1 to 5x10(exp -5). Fusion power research has made steady, impressive progress. It is plausible, and even probable, that fusion rockets similar to the designs presented here will be available in the early part of the twenty-first century, enabling a major expansion of human presence into the solar system.

Dynamic image fusion and general observer preference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burks, Stephen D.; Doe, Joshua M.

2010-04-01

Recent developments in image fusion give the user community many options for ways of presenting the imagery to an end-user. Individuals at the US Army RDECOM CERDEC Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate have developed an electronic system that allows users to quickly and efficiently determine optimal image fusion algorithms and color parameters based upon collected imagery and videos from environments that are typical to observers in a military environment. After performing multiple multi-band data collections in a variety of military-like scenarios, different waveband, fusion algorithm, image post-processing, and color choices are presented to observers as an output of the fusion system. The observer preferences can give guidelines as to how specific scenarios should affect the presentation of fused imagery.

A generic screening platform for inhibitors of virus induced cell fusion using cellular electrical impedance

PubMed Central

Watterson, Daniel; Robinson, Jodie; Chappell, Keith J.; Butler, Mark S.; Edwards, David J.; Fry, Scott R.; Bermingham, Imogen M.; Cooper, Matthew A.; Young, Paul R.

2016-01-01

Fusion of the viral envelope with host cell membranes is an essential step in the life cycle of all enveloped viruses. Despite such a clear target for antiviral drug development, few anti-fusion drugs have progressed to market. One significant hurdle is the absence of a generic, high-throughput, reproducible fusion assay. Here we report that real time, label-free measurement of cellular electrical impedance can quantify cell-cell fusion mediated by either individually expressed recombinant viral fusion proteins, or native virus infection. We validated this approach for all three classes of viral fusion and demonstrated utility in quantifying fusion inhibition using antibodies and small molecule inhibitors specific for dengue virus and respiratory syncytial virus. PMID:26976324

Influenza Virus-Mediated Membrane Fusion: Determinants of Hemagglutinin Fusogenic Activity and Experimental Approaches for Assessing Virus Fusion

PubMed Central

Hamilton, Brian S.; Whittaker, Gary R.; Daniel, Susan

2012-01-01

Hemagglutinin (HA) is the viral protein that facilitates the entry of influenza viruses into host cells. This protein controls two critical aspects of entry: virus binding and membrane fusion. In order for HA to carry out these functions, it must first undergo a priming step, proteolytic cleavage, which renders it fusion competent. Membrane fusion commences from inside the endosome after a drop in lumenal pH and an ensuing conformational change in HA that leads to the hemifusion of the outer membrane leaflets of the virus and endosome, the formation of a stalk between them, followed by pore formation. Thus, the fusion machinery is an excellent target for antiviral compounds, especially those that target the conserved stem region of the protein. However, traditional ensemble fusion assays provide a somewhat limited ability to directly quantify fusion partly due to the inherent averaging of individual fusion events resulting from experimental constraints. Inspired by the gains achieved by single molecule experiments and analysis of stochastic events, recently-developed individual virion imaging techniques and analysis of single fusion events has provided critical information about individual virion behavior, discriminated intermediate fusion steps within a single virion, and allowed the study of the overall population dynamics without the loss of discrete, individual information. In this article, we first start by reviewing the determinants of HA fusogenic activity and the viral entry process, highlight some open questions, and then describe the experimental approaches for assaying fusion that will be useful in developing the most effective therapies in the future. PMID:22852045

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinberg, Martin D.

2013-09-01

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

The national ignition facility and atomic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crandall, David H.

1998-07-01

The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is under construction, capping over 25 years of development of the inertial confinement fusion concept by providing the facility to obtain fusion ignition in the laboratory for the first time. The NIF is a 192 beam glass laser to provide energy controlled in space and time so that a millimeter-scale capsule containing deuterium and tritium can be compressed to fusion conditions. Light transport, conversion of light in frequency, interaction of light with matter in solid and plasma forms, and diagnostics of extreme material conditions on small scale all use atomic data in preparing for use of the NIF. The NIF will provide opportunity to make measurements of atomic data in extreme physical environments related to fusion energy, nuclear weapon detonation, and astrophysics. The first laser beams of NIF should be operational in 2001 and the full facility completed at the end of 2003. NIF is to provide 1.8 megajoule of blue light on fusion targets and is intended to achieve fusion ignition by about the end of 2007. Today's inertial fusion development activities use atomic data to design and predict fusion capsule performance and in non-fusion applications to analyze radiation transport and radiation effects on matter. Conditions investigated involve radiation temperature of hundreds of eV, pressures up to gigabars and time scales of femptoseconds.

Development of the Synarcual in the Elephant Sharks (Holocephali; Chondrichthyes): Implications for Vertebral Formation and Fusion.

PubMed

Johanson, Zerina; Boisvert, Catherine; Maksimenko, Anton; Currie, Peter; Trinajstic, Kate

2015-01-01

The synarcual is a structure incorporating multiple elements of two or more anterior vertebrae of the axial skeleton, forming immediately posterior to the cranium. It has been convergently acquired in the fossil group 'Placodermi', in Chondrichthyes (Holocephali, Batoidea), within the teleost group Syngnathiformes, and to varying degrees in a range of mammalian taxa. In addition, cervical vertebral fusion presents as an abnormal pathology in a variety of human disorders. Vertebrae develop from axially arranged somites, so that fusion could result from a failure of somite segmentation early in development, or from later heterotopic development of intervertebral bone or cartilage. Examination of early developmental stages indicates that in the Batoidea and the 'Placodermi', individual vertebrae developed normally and only later become incorporated into the synarcual, implying regular somite segmentation and vertebral development. Here we show that in the holocephalan Callorhinchus milii, uniform and regular vertebral segmentation also occurs, with anterior individual vertebra developing separately with subsequent fusion into a synarcual. Vertebral elements forming directly behind the synarcual continue to be incorporated into the synarcual through growth. This appears to be a common pattern through the Vertebrata. Research into human disorders, presenting as cervical fusion at birth, focuses on gene misexpression studies in humans and other mammals such as the mouse. However, in chondrichthyans, vertebral fusion represents the normal morphology, moreover, taxa such Leucoraja (Batoidea) and Callorhinchus (Holocephali) are increasingly used as laboratory animals, and the Callorhinchus genome has been sequenced and is available for study. Our observations on synarcual development in three major groups of early jawed vertebrates indicate that fusion involves heterotopic cartilage and perichondral bone/mineralised cartilage developing outside the regular skeleton. We suggest that chondrichthyans have potential as ideal extant models for identifying the genes involved in these processes, for application to human skeletal heterotopic disorders.

Development of the Synarcual in the Elephant Sharks (Holocephali; Chondrichthyes): Implications for Vertebral Formation and Fusion

PubMed Central

Johanson, Zerina; Boisvert, Catherine; Maksimenko, Anton; Currie, Peter; Trinajstic, Kate

2015-01-01

The synarcual is a structure incorporating multiple elements of two or more anterior vertebrae of the axial skeleton, forming immediately posterior to the cranium. It has been convergently acquired in the fossil group ‘Placodermi’, in Chondrichthyes (Holocephali, Batoidea), within the teleost group Syngnathiformes, and to varying degrees in a range of mammalian taxa. In addition, cervical vertebral fusion presents as an abnormal pathology in a variety of human disorders. Vertebrae develop from axially arranged somites, so that fusion could result from a failure of somite segmentation early in development, or from later heterotopic development of intervertebral bone or cartilage. Examination of early developmental stages indicates that in the Batoidea and the ‘Placodermi’, individual vertebrae developed normally and only later become incorporated into the synarcual, implying regular somite segmentation and vertebral development. Here we show that in the holocephalan Callorhinchus milii, uniform and regular vertebral segmentation also occurs, with anterior individual vertebra developing separately with subsequent fusion into a synarcual. Vertebral elements forming directly behind the synarcual continue to be incorporated into the synarcual through growth. This appears to be a common pattern through the Vertebrata. Research into human disorders, presenting as cervical fusion at birth, focuses on gene misexpression studies in humans and other mammals such as the mouse. However, in chondrichthyans, vertebral fusion represents the normal morphology, moreover, taxa such Leucoraja (Batoidea) and Callorhinchus (Holocephali) are increasingly used as laboratory animals, and the Callorhinchus genome has been sequenced and is available for study. Our observations on synarcual development in three major groups of early jawed vertebrates indicate that fusion involves heterotopic cartilage and perichondral bone/mineralised cartilage developing outside the regular skeleton. We suggest that chondrichthyans have potential as ideal extant models for identifying the genes involved in these processes, for application to human skeletal heterotopic disorders. PMID:26339918

Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method.

PubMed

Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Smith, Peter W F; Bijak, Jakub; Raymer, James; Forster, Jonathan J

2015-06-01

In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the components of population change to the year 2024. We also compare the results obtained from different forecast models for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration. In doing so, we demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of adopting the Bayesian approach for population forecasting and highlight areas where this work could be extended.

Some not such wonderful magnetic fusion facts; and their solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manheimer, Wallace

2017-10-01

The first not such wonderful fusion fact (NSWFF) is that if ITER is successful, it is nowhere near ready to develop into a DEMO. The design Q=10, along with electricity generating efficiency of 1/3 prevents this. Making it smaller and cheaper, increasing the gain by 3 or 4, and the wall loading by an order of magnitude is not a minor detail, it is not at all clear the success with ITER will lead to a similar, pure fusion DEMO. The second NSWFF is that tokamaks are unlikely to improve to the point where they can be effective fusion reactors because their performance is limited by conservative design rules. The third NSWFF is that developing large fusion devices like ITER takes an enormous amount of time and dollars, there are no second chances. The fourth NSWFF is that it is unlikely that alternative confinement configurations will succeed either, at least in this century; they are simply too far behind. There is only a single solution for fusion to become a sustainable, carbon free power source by midcentury or shortly thereafter. This is to develop ITER (assuming it is successful) into a fusion breeder. This work was not supported by any organization, private or public.

TMS combined with EEG in genetic generalized epilepsy: A phase II diagnostic accuracy study.

PubMed

Kimiskidis, Vasilios K; Tsimpiris, Alkiviadis; Ryvlin, Philippe; Kalviainen, Reetta; Koutroumanidis, Michalis; Valentin, Antonio; Laskaris, Nikolaos; Kugiumtzis, Dimitris

2017-02-01

(A) To develop a TMS-EEG stimulation and data analysis protocol in genetic generalized epilepsy (GGE). (B) To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of TMS-EEG in GGE. Pilot experiments resulted in the development and optimization of a paired-pulse TMS-EEG protocol at rest, during hyperventilation (HV), and post-HV combined with multi-level data analysis. This protocol was applied in 11 controls (C) and 25 GGE patients (P), further dichotomized into responders to antiepileptic drugs (R, n=13) and non-responders (n-R, n=12).Features (n=57) extracted from TMS-EEG responses after multi-level analysis were given to a feature selection scheme and a Bayesian classifier, and the accuracy of assigning participants into the classes P-C and R-nR was computed. On the basis of the optimal feature subset, the cross-validated accuracy of TMS-EEG for the classification P-C was 0.86 at rest, 0.81 during HV and 0.92 at post-HV, whereas for R-nR the corresponding figures are 0.80, 0.78 and 0.65, respectively. Applying a fusion approach on all conditions resulted in an accuracy of 0.84 for the classification P-C and 0.76 for the classification R-nR. TMS-EEG can be used for diagnostic purposes and for assessing the response to antiepileptic drugs. TMS-EEG holds significant diagnostic potential in GGE. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Current and Future Impacts of Wildfires on PM2.5 and Public Health in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Strickland, M.; Fu, J. S.; Geng, G.; Chang, H. H.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, the Western United States has seen heightened wildfire activity, characterized by a higher frequency of large wildfires a longer fire season, larger fire size, and a greater total area burned. With projected temperature increases, soil moisture reduction, and more frequent air stagnation, the burden of wildfires on air quality and public health will likely increase. With state-of-the-art climate and air quality models; ground and satellite measurements; and detailed health information, we will investigate the impacts of historical and future wildfires on air quality and public health in Colorado under various climate change scenarios and population growth patterns. As the first step of this project, we developed a Bayesian fusion model with satellite aerosol, cloud and fire data as well as CMAQ simulation results to estimate PM2.5 and ozone concentrations during the fire season of 2011 - 2014 at 1 km spatial resolution. These exposure estimates will be used together with emergency department (ED) visits and acute hospitalizations data in Colorado to develop region-specific concentration-response (C-R) functions. These C-R functions in combination with projected future PM2.5 and O3 will be used in the EPA BenMAP framework to estimate the impacts of future wildfires on public health. This research addresses an important link between climate and aerosol research and could significantly increase our understanding of the implications of climate change for PM and public health in the Rocky Mountains Region.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morgan, O.B. Jr.; Berry, L.A.; Sheffield, J.

This annual report on fusion energy discusses the progress on work in the following main topics: toroidal confinement experiments; atomic physics and plasma diagnostics development; plasma theory and computing; plasma-materials interactions; plasma technology; superconducting magnet development; fusion engineering design center; materials research and development; and neutron transport. (LSP)

Review of the magnetic fusion program by the 1986 ERAB Fusion Panel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Ronald C.

1987-09-01

The 1986 ERAB Fusion Panel finds that fusion energy continues to be an attractive energy source with great potential for the future, and that the magnetic fusion program continues to make substantial technical progress. In addition, fusion research advances plasma physics, a sophisticated and useful branch of applied science, as well as technologies important to industry and defense. These factors fully justify the substantial expenditures by the Department of Energy in fusion research and development (R&D). The Panel endorses the overall program direction, strategy, and plans, and recognizes the importance and timeliness of proceeding with a burning plasma experiment, such as the proposed Compact Ignition Tokamak (CIT) experiment.

Possible application of electromagnetic guns to impact fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostoff, R. N.; Peaslee, A. T., Jr.; Ribe, F. L.

1982-01-01

The possible application of electromagnetic guns to impact fusion for the generation of electric power is discussed, and advantages of impact fusion over the more conventional inertial confinement fusion concepts are examined. It is shown that impact fusion can achieve the necessary high yields, of the order of a few gigajoules, which are difficult to achieve with lasers except at unrealistically high target gains. The rail gun accelerator is well adapted to the delivery of some 10-100 megajoules of energy to the fusion target, and the electrical technology involved is relatively simple: inductive storage or rotating machinery and capacitors. It is concluded that the rail gun has the potential of developing into an impact fusion macroparticle accelerator.

Human Myoblast Fusion Requires Expression of Functional Inward Rectifier Kir2.1 Channels

PubMed Central

Fischer-Lougheed, Jacqueline; Liu, Jian-Hui; Espinos, Estelle; Mordasini, David; Bader, Charles R.; Belin, Dominique; Bernheim, Laurent

2001-01-01

Myoblast fusion is essential to skeletal muscle development and repair. We have demonstrated previously that human myoblasts hyperpolarize, before fusion, through the sequential expression of two K+ channels: an ether-à-go-go and an inward rectifier. This hyperpolarization is a prerequisite for fusion, as it sets the resting membrane potential in a range at which Ca2+ can enter myoblasts and thereby trigger fusion via a window current through α1H T channels. PMID:11352930

Development of an internet based system for modeling biotin metabolism using Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Zhou, Jinglei; Wang, Dong; Schlegel, Vicki; Zempleni, Janos

2011-11-01

Biotin is an essential water-soluble vitamin crucial for maintaining normal body functions. The importance of biotin for human health has been under-appreciated but there is plenty of opportunity for future research with great importance for human health. Currently, carrying out predictions of biotin metabolism involves tedious manual manipulations. In this paper, we report the development of BiotinNet, an internet based program that uses Bayesian networks to integrate published data on various aspects of biotin metabolism. Users can provide a combination of values on the levels of biotin related metabolites to obtain the predictions on other metabolites that are not specified. As an inherent feature of Bayesian networks, the uncertainty of the prediction is also quantified and reported to the user. This program enables convenient in silico experiments regarding biotin metabolism, which can help researchers design future experiments while new data can be continuously incorporated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian image reconstruction for improving detection performance of muon tomography.

PubMed

Wang, Guobao; Schultz, Larry J; Qi, Jinyi

2009-05-01

Muon tomography is a novel technology that is being developed for detecting high-Z materials in vehicles or cargo containers. Maximum likelihood methods have been developed for reconstructing the scattering density image from muon measurements. However, the instability of maximum likelihood estimation often results in noisy images and low detectability of high-Z targets. In this paper, we propose using regularization to improve the image quality of muon tomography. We formulate the muon reconstruction problem in a Bayesian framework by introducing a prior distribution on scattering density images. An iterative shrinkage algorithm is derived to maximize the log posterior distribution. At each iteration, the algorithm obtains the maximum a posteriori update by shrinking an unregularized maximum likelihood update. Inverse quadratic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Laplacian priors and inverse cubic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Gaussian priors. Receiver operating characteristic studies using simulated data demonstrate that the Bayesian reconstruction can greatly improve the detection performance of muon tomography.

Genomic-Enabled Prediction of Ordinal Data with Bayesian Logistic Ordinal Regression.

PubMed

Montesinos-López, Osval A; Montesinos-López, Abelardo; Crossa, José; Burgueño, Juan; Eskridge, Kent

2015-08-18

Most genomic-enabled prediction models developed so far assume that the response variable is continuous and normally distributed. The exception is the probit model, developed for ordered categorical phenotypes. In statistical applications, because of the easy implementation of the Bayesian probit ordinal regression (BPOR) model, Bayesian logistic ordinal regression (BLOR) is implemented rarely in the context of genomic-enabled prediction [sample size (n) is much smaller than the number of parameters (p)]. For this reason, in this paper we propose a BLOR model using the Pólya-Gamma data augmentation approach that produces a Gibbs sampler with similar full conditional distributions of the BPOR model and with the advantage that the BPOR model is a particular case of the BLOR model. We evaluated the proposed model by using simulation and two real data sets. Results indicate that our BLOR model is a good alternative for analyzing ordinal data in the context of genomic-enabled prediction with the probit or logit link. Copyright © 2015 Montesinos-López et al.

Development of next generation tempered and ODS reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steels for fusion energy applications

DOE PAGES

Zinkle, S. J.; Boutard, J. L.; Hoelzer, D. T.; ...

2017-06-09

Reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steels are currently the most technologically mature option for the structural material of proposed fusion energy reactors. Advanced next-generation higher performance steels offer the opportunity for improvements in fusion reactor operational lifetime and reliability, superior neutron radiation damage resistance, higher thermodynamic efficiency, and reduced construction costs. The two main strategies for developing improved steels for fusion energy applications are based on (1) an evolutionary pathway using computational thermodynamics modelling and modified thermomechanical treatments (TMT) to produce higher performance reduced activation ferritic/martensitic (RAFM) steels and (2) a higher risk, potentially higher payoff approach based on powder metallurgy techniquesmore » to produce very high strength oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels capable of operation to very high temperatures and with potentially very high resistance to fusion neutron-induced property degradation. The current development status of these next-generation high performance steels is summarized, and research and development challenges for the successful development of these materials are outlined. In conclusion, material properties including temperature-dependent uniaxial yield strengths, tensile elongations, high-temperature thermal creep, Charpy impact ductile to brittle transient temperature (DBTT) and fracture toughness behaviour, and neutron irradiation-induced low-temperature hardening and embrittlement and intermediate-temperature volumetric void swelling (including effects associated with fusion-relevant helium and hydrogen generation) are described for research heats of the new steels.« less

Development of next generation tempered and ODS reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steels for fusion energy applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zinkle, S. J.; Boutard, J. L.; Hoelzer, D. T.

Reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steels are currently the most technologically mature option for the structural material of proposed fusion energy reactors. Advanced next-generation higher performance steels offer the opportunity for improvements in fusion reactor operational lifetime and reliability, superior neutron radiation damage resistance, higher thermodynamic efficiency, and reduced construction costs. The two main strategies for developing improved steels for fusion energy applications are based on (1) an evolutionary pathway using computational thermodynamics modelling and modified thermomechanical treatments (TMT) to produce higher performance reduced activation ferritic/martensitic (RAFM) steels and (2) a higher risk, potentially higher payoff approach based on powder metallurgy techniquesmore » to produce very high strength oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels capable of operation to very high temperatures and with potentially very high resistance to fusion neutron-induced property degradation. The current development status of these next-generation high performance steels is summarized, and research and development challenges for the successful development of these materials are outlined. In conclusion, material properties including temperature-dependent uniaxial yield strengths, tensile elongations, high-temperature thermal creep, Charpy impact ductile to brittle transient temperature (DBTT) and fracture toughness behaviour, and neutron irradiation-induced low-temperature hardening and embrittlement and intermediate-temperature volumetric void swelling (including effects associated with fusion-relevant helium and hydrogen generation) are described for research heats of the new steels.« less

Development of next generation tempered and ODS reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steels for fusion energy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zinkle, S. J.; Boutard, J. L.; Hoelzer, D. T.; Kimura, A.; Lindau, R.; Odette, G. R.; Rieth, M.; Tan, L.; Tanigawa, H.

2017-09-01

Reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steels are currently the most technologically mature option for the structural material of proposed fusion energy reactors. Advanced next-generation higher performance steels offer the opportunity for improvements in fusion reactor operational lifetime and reliability, superior neutron radiation damage resistance, higher thermodynamic efficiency, and reduced construction costs. The two main strategies for developing improved steels for fusion energy applications are based on (1) an evolutionary pathway using computational thermodynamics modelling and modified thermomechanical treatments (TMT) to produce higher performance reduced activation ferritic/martensitic (RAFM) steels and (2) a higher risk, potentially higher payoff approach based on powder metallurgy techniques to produce very high strength oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels capable of operation to very high temperatures and with potentially very high resistance to fusion neutron-induced property degradation. The current development status of these next-generation high performance steels is summarized, and research and development challenges for the successful development of these materials are outlined. Material properties including temperature-dependent uniaxial yield strengths, tensile elongations, high-temperature thermal creep, Charpy impact ductile to brittle transient temperature (DBTT) and fracture toughness behaviour, and neutron irradiation-induced low-temperature hardening and embrittlement and intermediate-temperature volumetric void swelling (including effects associated with fusion-relevant helium and hydrogen generation) are described for research heats of the new steels.

CONFERENCE REPORT: Summary of the 8th IAEA Technical Meeting on Fusion Power Plant Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, J. Ph.; Gulden, W.; Kolbasov, B.; Louzeiro-Malaquias, A.-J.; Petti, D.; Rodriguez-Rodrigo, L.

2008-01-01

Reports were presented covering a selection of topics on the safety of fusion power plants. These included a review on licensing studies developed for ITER site preparation surveying common and non-common issues (i.e. site dependent) as lessons to a broader approach for fusion power plant safety. Several fusion power plant models, spanning from accessible technology to more advanced-materials based concepts, were discussed. On the topic related to fusion-specific technology, safety studies were reported on different concepts of breeding blanket modules, tritium handling and auxiliary systems under normal and accident scenarios' operation. The testing of power plant relevant technology in ITER was also assessed in terms of normal operation and accident scenarios, and occupational doses and radioactive releases under these testings have been determined. Other specific safety issues for fusion have also been discussed such as availability and reliability of fusion power plants, dust and tritium inventories and component failure databases. This study reveals that the environmental impact of fusion power plants can be minimized through a proper selection of low activation materials and using recycling technology helping to reduce waste volume and potentially open the route for its reutilization for the nuclear sector or even its clearance into the commercial circuit. Computational codes for fusion safety have been presented in support of the many studies reported. The on-going work on establishing validation approaches aiming at improving the prediction capability of fusion codes has been supported by experimental results and new directions for development have been identified. Fusion standards are not available and fission experience is mostly used as the framework basis for licensing and target design for safe operation and occupational and environmental constraints. It has been argued that fusion can benefit if a specific fusion approach is implemented, in particular for materials selection which will have a large impact on waste disposal and recycling and in the real limits of radiation releases if indexed to the real impact on individuals and the environment given the differences in the types of radiation emitted by tritium when compared with the fission products. Round table sessions resulted in some common recommendations. The discussions also created the awareness of the need for a larger involvement of the IAEA in support of fusion safety standards development.

Controlled Nuclear Fusion: Status and Outlook

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rose, David J.

1971-01-01

Presents the history, current concerns and potential developments of nuclear fusion as a major energy source. Controlled fusion research is summarized, technological feasibility is discussed and environmental factors are examined. Relationships of alternative energy sources as well as energy utilization are considered. (JM)

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

PubMed Central

Bijak, Jakub; Bryant, John

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms. PMID:26902889

Discovering and understanding oncogenic gene fusions through data intensive computational approaches

PubMed Central

Latysheva, Natasha S.; Babu, M. Madan

2016-01-01

Abstract Although gene fusions have been recognized as important drivers of cancer for decades, our understanding of the prevalence and function of gene fusions has been revolutionized by the rise of next-generation sequencing, advances in bioinformatics theory and an increasing capacity for large-scale computational biology. The computational work on gene fusions has been vastly diverse, and the present state of the literature is fragmented. It will be fruitful to merge three camps of gene fusion bioinformatics that appear to rarely cross over: (i) data-intensive computational work characterizing the molecular biology of gene fusions; (ii) development research on fusion detection tools, candidate fusion prioritization algorithms and dedicated fusion databases and (iii) clinical research that seeks to either therapeutically target fusion transcripts and proteins or leverages advances in detection tools to perform large-scale surveys of gene fusion landscapes in specific cancer types. In this review, we unify these different—yet highly complementary and symbiotic—approaches with the view that increased synergy will catalyze advancements in gene fusion identification, characterization and significance evaluation. PMID:27105842

Benchmarking of data fusion algorithms in support of earth observation based Antarctic wildlife monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witharana, Chandi; LaRue, Michelle A.; Lynch, Heather J.

2016-03-01

Remote sensing is a rapidly developing tool for mapping the abundance and distribution of Antarctic wildlife. While both panchromatic and multispectral imagery have been used in this context, image fusion techniques have received little attention. We tasked seven widely-used fusion algorithms: Ehlers fusion, hyperspherical color space fusion, high-pass fusion, principal component analysis (PCA) fusion, University of New Brunswick fusion, and wavelet-PCA fusion to resolution enhance a series of single-date QuickBird-2 and Worldview-2 image scenes comprising penguin guano, seals, and vegetation. Fused images were assessed for spectral and spatial fidelity using a variety of quantitative quality indicators and visual inspection methods. Our visual evaluation elected the high-pass fusion algorithm and the University of New Brunswick fusion algorithm as best for manual wildlife detection while the quantitative assessment suggested the Gram-Schmidt fusion algorithm and the University of New Brunswick fusion algorithm as best for automated classification. The hyperspherical color space fusion algorithm exhibited mediocre results in terms of spectral and spatial fidelities. The PCA fusion algorithm showed spatial superiority at the expense of spectral inconsistencies. The Ehlers fusion algorithm and the wavelet-PCA algorithm showed the weakest performances. As remote sensing becomes a more routine method of surveying Antarctic wildlife, these benchmarks will provide guidance for image fusion and pave the way for more standardized products for specific types of wildlife surveys.

Inference of domain-disease associations from domain-protein, protein-disease and disease-disease relationships.

PubMed

Zhang, Wangshu; Coba, Marcelo P; Sun, Fengzhu

2016-01-11

Protein domains can be viewed as portable units of biological function that defines the functional properties of proteins. Therefore, if a protein is associated with a disease, protein domains might also be associated and define disease endophenotypes. However, knowledge about such domain-disease relationships is rarely available. Thus, identification of domains associated with human diseases would greatly improve our understanding of the mechanism of human complex diseases and further improve the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of these diseases. Based on phenotypic similarities among diseases, we first group diseases into overlapping modules. We then develop a framework to infer associations between domains and diseases through known relationships between diseases and modules, domains and proteins, as well as proteins and disease modules. Different methods including Association, Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), Domain-disease pair exclusion analysis (DPEA), Bayesian, and Parsimonious explanation (PE) approaches are developed to predict domain-disease associations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of all the five approaches via a series of validation experiments, and show the robustness of the MLE, Bayesian and PE approaches to the involved parameters. We also study the effects of disease modularization in inferring novel domain-disease associations. Through validation, the AUC (Area Under the operating characteristic Curve) scores for Bayesian, MLE, DPEA, PE, and Association approaches are 0.86, 0.84, 0.83, 0.83 and 0.79, respectively, indicating the usefulness of these approaches for predicting domain-disease relationships. Finally, we choose the Bayesian approach to infer domains associated with two common diseases, Crohn's disease and type 2 diabetes. The Bayesian approach has the best performance for the inference of domain-disease relationships. The predicted landscape between domains and diseases provides a more detailed view about the disease mechanisms.

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference Using Clique Tree Growth Curves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole J.

2010-01-01

One of the main approaches to performing computation in Bayesian networks (BNs) is clique tree clustering and propagation. The clique tree approach consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network, and while it was introduced in the 1980s, there is still a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time depends on variations in BN size and structure. In this article, we improve this understanding by developing an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN s non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, and (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for the total size of each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, there are two sets and two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, where random bipartite BNs generated using the BPART algorithm are studied, we systematically increase the out-degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, by increasing the number of leaf nodes. Surprisingly, root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves, an S-shaped family of curves that has previously been used to describe growth processes in biology, medicine, and neuroscience. We believe that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering for a certain class of Bayesian networks; presents an aid for trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves; and ultimately provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms.

Heterogeneous Vision Data Fusion for Independently Moving Cameras

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

target detection , tracking , and identification over a large terrain. The goal of the project is to investigate and evaluate the existing image...fusion algorithms, develop new real-time algorithms for Category-II image fusion, and apply these algorithms in moving target detection and tracking . The...moving target detection and classification. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Image Fusion, Target Detection , Moving Cameras, IR Camera, EO Camera 16. SECURITY

Sacroiliac Joint Fusion Using Triangular Titanium Implants vs. Non-Surgical Management: Six-Month Outcomes from a Prospective Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Whang, Peter; Cher, Daniel; Polly, David; Frank, Clay; Lockstadt, Harry; Glaser, John; Limoni, Robert; Sembrano, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Sacroiliac (SI) joint pain is a prevalent, underdiagnosed cause of lower back pain. SI joint fusion can relieve pain and improve quality of life in patients who have failed nonoperative care. To date, no study has concurrently compared surgical and non-surgical treatments for chronic SI joint dysfunction. We conducted a prospective randomized controlled trial of 148 subjects with SI joint dysfunction due to degenerative sacroiliitis or sacroiliac joint disruptions who were assigned to either minimally invasive SI joint fusion with triangular titanium implants (N=102) or non-surgical management (NSM, n=46). SI joint pain scores, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Short-Form 36 (SF-36) and EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) were collected at baseline and at 1, 3 and 6 months after treatment commencement. Six-month success rates, defined as the proportion of treated subjects with a 20-mm improvement in SI joint pain in the absence of severe device-related or neurologic SI joint-related adverse events or surgical revision, were compared using Bayesian methods. Subjects (mean age 51, 70% women) were highly debilitated at baseline (mean SI joint VAS pain score 82, mean ODI score 62). Six-month follow-up was obtained in 97.3%. By 6 months, success rates were 81.4% in the surgical group vs. 23.9% in the NSM group (difference of 56.6%, 95% posterior credible interval 41.4-70.0%, posterior probability of superiority >0.999). Clinically important (≥15 point) ODI improvement at 6 months occurred in 75% of surgery subjects vs. 27.3% of NSM subjects. At six months, quality of life improved more in the surgery group and satisfaction rates were high. The mean number of adverse events in the first six months was slightly higher in the surgical group compared to the non-surgical group (1.3 vs. 1.0 events per subject, p=0.1857). Six-month follow-up from this level 1 study showed that minimally invasive SI joint fusion using triangular titanium implants was more effective than non-surgical management in relieving pain, improving function and improving quality of life in patients with SI joint dysfunction due to degenerative sacroiliitis or SI joint disruptions. Minimally invasive SI joint fusion is an acceptable option for patients with chronic SI joint dysfunction due to degenerative sacroiliitis and sacroiliac joint disruptions unresponsive to non-surgical treatments.

Sacroiliac Joint Fusion Using Triangular Titanium Implants vs. Non-Surgical Management: Six-Month Outcomes from a Prospective Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Whang, Peter; Polly, David; Frank, Clay; Lockstadt, Harry; Glaser, John; Limoni, Robert; Sembrano, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Background Sacroiliac (SI) joint pain is a prevalent, underdiagnosed cause of lower back pain. SI joint fusion can relieve pain and improve quality of life in patients who have failed nonoperative care. To date, no study has concurrently compared surgical and non-surgical treatments for chronic SI joint dysfunction. Methods We conducted a prospective randomized controlled trial of 148 subjects with SI joint dysfunction due to degenerative sacroiliitis or sacroiliac joint disruptions who were assigned to either minimally invasive SI joint fusion with triangular titanium implants (N=102) or non-surgical management (NSM, n=46). SI joint pain scores, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), Short-Form 36 (SF-36) and EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) were collected at baseline and at 1, 3 and 6 months after treatment commencement. Six-month success rates, defined as the proportion of treated subjects with a 20-mm improvement in SI joint pain in the absence of severe device-related or neurologic SI joint-related adverse events or surgical revision, were compared using Bayesian methods. Results Subjects (mean age 51, 70% women) were highly debilitated at baseline (mean SI joint VAS pain score 82, mean ODI score 62). Six-month follow-up was obtained in 97.3%. By 6 months, success rates were 81.4% in the surgical group vs. 23.9% in the NSM group (difference of 56.6%, 95% posterior credible interval 41.4-70.0%, posterior probability of superiority >0.999). Clinically important (≥15 point) ODI improvement at 6 months occurred in 75% of surgery subjects vs. 27.3% of NSM subjects. At six months, quality of life improved more in the surgery group and satisfaction rates were high. The mean number of adverse events in the first six months was slightly higher in the surgical group compared to the non-surgical group (1.3 vs. 1.0 events per subject, p=0.1857). Conclusions Six-month follow-up from this level 1 study showed that minimally invasive SI joint fusion using triangular titanium implants was more effective than non-surgical management in relieving pain, improving function and improving quality of life in patients with SI joint dysfunction due to degenerative sacroiliitis or SI joint disruptions. Clinical relevance Minimally invasive SI joint fusion is an acceptable option for patients with chronic SI joint dysfunction due to degenerative sacroiliitis and sacroiliac joint disruptions unresponsive to non-surgical treatments. PMID:25785242

Population pharmacokinetics and maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of abacavir: application of individualized therapy in HIV-infected infants and toddlers

PubMed Central

Zhao, Wei; Cella, Massimo; Della Pasqua, Oscar; Burger, David; Jacqz-Aigrain, Evelyne

2012-01-01

AIMS To develop a population pharmacokinetic model for abacavir in HIV-infected infants and toddlers, which will be used to describe both once and twice daily pharmacokinetic profiles, identify covariates that explain variability and propose optimal time points to optimize the area under the concentration–time curve (AUC) targeted dosage and individualize therapy. METHODS The pharmacokinetics of abacavir was described with plasma concentrations from 23 patients using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) software. A two-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination was developed. The final model was validated using bootstrap, visual predictive check and normalized prediction distribution errors. The Bayesian estimator was validated using the cross-validation and simulation–estimation method. RESULTS The typical population pharmacokinetic parameters and relative standard errors (RSE) were apparent systemic clearance (CL) 13.4 l h−1 (RSE 6.3%), apparent central volume of distribution 4.94 l (RSE 28.7%), apparent peripheral volume of distribution 8.12 l (RSE14.2%), apparent intercompartment clearance 1.25 l h−1 (RSE 16.9%) and absorption rate constant 0.758 h−1 (RSE 5.8%). The covariate analysis identified weight as the individual factor influencing the apparent oral clearance: CL = 13.4 × (weight/12)1.14. The maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator, based on three concentrations measured at 0, 1 or 2, and 3 h after drug intake allowed predicting individual AUC0–t. CONCLUSIONS The population pharmacokinetic model developed for abacavir in HIV-infected infants and toddlers accurately described both once and twice daily pharmacokinetic profiles. The maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of AUC0–t was developed from the final model and can be used routinely to optimize individual dosing. PMID:21988586

The challenge of developing structural materials for fusion power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloom, Everett E.

1998-10-01

Nuclear fusion can be one of the most attractive sources of energy from the viewpoint of safety and minimal environmental impact. Central in the goal of designing a safe, environmentally benign, and economically competitive fusion power system is the requirement for high performance, low activation materials. The general performance requirements for such materials have been defined and it is clear that materials developed for other applications (e.g. aerospace, nuclear fission, fossil energy systems) will not fully meet the needs of fusion. Advanced materials, with composition and microstructure tailored to yield properties that will satisfy the specific requirements of fusion must be developed. The international fusion programs have made significant progress towards this goal. Compositional requirements for low activation lead to a focus of development efforts on silicon carbide composites, vanadium alloys, and advanced martensitic steels as candidate structural material systems. Control of impurities will be critically important in actually achieving low activation but this appears possible. Neutron irradiation produces significant changes in the mechanical and physical properties of each of these material systems raising feasibility questions and design limitations. A focus of the research and development effort is to understand these effects, and through the development of specific compositions and microstructures, produce materials with improved and adequate performance. Other areas of research that are synergistic with the development of radiation resistant materials include fabrication, joining technology, chemical compatibility with coolants and tritium breeders and specific questions relating to the unique characteristics of a given material (e.g. coatings to reduce gas permeation in SiC composites) or design concept (e.g. electrical insulator coatings for liquid metal concepts).

Bayesian approach to the assessment of the population-specific risk of inhibitors in hemophilia A patients: a case study

PubMed Central

Cheng, Ji; Iorio, Alfonso; Marcucci, Maura; Romanov, Vadim; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M; Marshall, John K; Thabane, Lehana

2016-01-01

Background Developing inhibitors is a rare event during the treatment of hemophilia A. The multifacets and uncertainty surrounding the development of inhibitors further complicate the process of estimating inhibitor rate from the limited data. Bayesian statistical modeling provides a useful tool in generating, enhancing, and exploring the evidence through incorporating all the available information. Methods We built our Bayesian analysis using three study cases to estimate the inhibitor rates of patients with hemophilia A in three different scenarios: Case 1, a single cohort of previously treated patients (PTPs) or previously untreated patients; Case 2, a meta-analysis of PTP cohorts; and Case 3, a previously unexplored patient population – patients with baseline low-titer inhibitor or history of inhibitor development. The data used in this study were extracted from three published ADVATE (antihemophilic factor [recombinant] is a product of Baxter for treating hemophilia A) post-authorization surveillance studies. Noninformative and informative priors were applied to Bayesian standard (Case 1) or random-effects (Case 2 and Case 3) logistic models. Bayesian probabilities of satisfying three meaningful thresholds of the risk of developing a clinical significant inhibitor (10/100, 5/100 [high rates], and 1/86 [the Food and Drug Administration mandated cutoff rate in PTPs]) were calculated. The effect of discounting prior information or scaling up the study data was evaluated. Results Results based on noninformative priors were similar to the classical approach. Using priors from PTPs lowered the point estimate and narrowed the 95% credible intervals (Case 1: from 1.3 [0.5, 2.7] to 0.8 [0.5, 1.1]; Case 2: from 1.9 [0.6, 6.0] to 0.8 [0.5, 1.1]; Case 3: 2.3 [0.5, 6.8] to 0.7 [0.5, 1.1]). All probabilities of satisfying a threshold of 1/86 were above 0.65. Increasing the number of patients by two and ten times substantially narrowed the credible intervals for the single cohort study (1.4 [0.7, 2.3] and 1.4 [1.1, 1.8], respectively). Increasing the number of studies by two and ten times for the multiple study scenarios (Case 2: 1.9 [0.6, 4.0] and 1.9 [1.5, 2.6]; Case 3: 2.4 [0.9, 5.0] and 2.6 [1.9, 3.5], respectively) had a similar effect. Conclusion Bayesian approach as a robust, transparent, and reproducible analytic method can be efficiently used to estimate the inhibitor rate of hemophilia A in complex clinical settings. PMID:27822129

Bayesian approach to the assessment of the population-specific risk of inhibitors in hemophilia A patients: a case study.

PubMed

Cheng, Ji; Iorio, Alfonso; Marcucci, Maura; Romanov, Vadim; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M; Marshall, John K; Thabane, Lehana

2016-01-01

Developing inhibitors is a rare event during the treatment of hemophilia A. The multifacets and uncertainty surrounding the development of inhibitors further complicate the process of estimating inhibitor rate from the limited data. Bayesian statistical modeling provides a useful tool in generating, enhancing, and exploring the evidence through incorporating all the available information. We built our Bayesian analysis using three study cases to estimate the inhibitor rates of patients with hemophilia A in three different scenarios: Case 1, a single cohort of previously treated patients (PTPs) or previously untreated patients; Case 2, a meta-analysis of PTP cohorts; and Case 3, a previously unexplored patient population - patients with baseline low-titer inhibitor or history of inhibitor development. The data used in this study were extracted from three published ADVATE (antihemophilic factor [recombinant] is a product of Baxter for treating hemophilia A) post-authorization surveillance studies. Noninformative and informative priors were applied to Bayesian standard (Case 1) or random-effects (Case 2 and Case 3) logistic models. Bayesian probabilities of satisfying three meaningful thresholds of the risk of developing a clinical significant inhibitor (10/100, 5/100 [high rates], and 1/86 [the Food and Drug Administration mandated cutoff rate in PTPs]) were calculated. The effect of discounting prior information or scaling up the study data was evaluated. Results based on noninformative priors were similar to the classical approach. Using priors from PTPs lowered the point estimate and narrowed the 95% credible intervals (Case 1: from 1.3 [0.5, 2.7] to 0.8 [0.5, 1.1]; Case 2: from 1.9 [0.6, 6.0] to 0.8 [0.5, 1.1]; Case 3: 2.3 [0.5, 6.8] to 0.7 [0.5, 1.1]). All probabilities of satisfying a threshold of 1/86 were above 0.65. Increasing the number of patients by two and ten times substantially narrowed the credible intervals for the single cohort study (1.4 [0.7, 2.3] and 1.4 [1.1, 1.8], respectively). Increasing the number of studies by two and ten times for the multiple study scenarios (Case 2: 1.9 [0.6, 4.0] and 1.9 [1.5, 2.6]; Case 3: 2.4 [0.9, 5.0] and 2.6 [1.9, 3.5], respectively) had a similar effect. Bayesian approach as a robust, transparent, and reproducible analytic method can be efficiently used to estimate the inhibitor rate of hemophilia A in complex clinical settings.

Remotely controlled fusion of selected vesicles and living cells: a key issue review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahadori, Azra; Moreno-Pescador, Guillermo; Oddershede, Lene B.; Bendix, Poul M.

2018-03-01

Remote control over fusion of single cells and vesicles has a great potential in biological and chemical research allowing both transfer of genetic material between cells and transfer of molecular content between vesicles. Membrane fusion is a critical process in biology that facilitates molecular transport and mixing of cellular cytoplasms with potential formation of hybrid cells. Cells precisely regulate internal membrane fusions with the aid of specialized fusion complexes that physically provide the energy necessary for mediating fusion. Physical factors like membrane curvature, tension and temperature, affect biological membrane fusion by lowering the associated energy barrier. This has inspired the development of physical approaches to harness the fusion process at a single cell level by using remotely controlled electromagnetic fields to trigger membrane fusion. Here, we critically review various approaches, based on lasers or electric pulses, to control fusion between individual cells or between individual lipid vesicles and discuss their potential and limitations for present and future applications within biochemistry, biology and soft matter.

Factors affecting the electrofusion of mouse and ferret oocytes with ferret somatic cells.

PubMed

Li, Ziyi; Sun, Xingshen; Chen, Juan; Leno, Gregory H; Engelhardt, John F

2005-09-01

The domestic ferret, Mustela putorius furos, holds great promise as a genetic model for human lung disease, provided that key technologies for somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) are developed. In this report, we extend our understanding of SCNT in this species by defining conditions for efficient cell fusion by electrical pulse. Two experimental systems were employed in this study. First, in vivo-matured mouse oocytes and ferret somatic cells were used to establish general parameters for fusion. One fibroblast, or cumulus cell, was agglutinated to nucleate, zona pellucida-free, mouse oocytes, and subjected to an electrical pulse. Similar electrical pulse conditions were also tested with 1 or 2 somatic cells inserted into the perivitelline space (PVS) of intact mouse oocytes. The fusion rate for a single fibroblast with a zona-free oocyte was 80.2%, significantly higher (P < 0.05) than that observed for 1, or 2, fibroblasts placed in the PVS (52.0% and 63.8%, respectively). The fusion rate (44.1%) following insertion of two cumulus cells was significantly higher (P < 0.05) than that following insertion of one cumulus cell (25.1%). Second, in vitro-matured ferret oocytes were enucleated, and one to three fibroblasts or cumulus cells were inserted into the PVS. Zona pellucida-free ferret oocytes were fragile and excluded from the study. The fusion rates with two or three fibroblasts were 71.4% and 76.8%, respectively; significantly higher (P < 0.05) than that for one fibroblast (48.6%). This cell number-dependent difference in fusion efficiency was also observed with cumulus cells. Fusion-derived (ferret-ferret) NT embryos cleaved, formed blastocysts in vitro, and underwent early-stage fetal development following embryo transfer. The rate of development was cell type-independent, in contrast to the cell type-dependent differences observed in fusion efficiency. In conclusion, fibroblasts fused more efficiently than cumulus cells and the efficiency of single cell fusions was improved when two or more cells were inserted into the PVS. These studies define conditions for efficient cell fusion with ferret oocytes and should facilitate SCNT and the development of genetically defined animal models in this species.

Instrumented posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) with interbody fusion device (Cage) in degenerative disc disease (DDD): 3 years outcome.

PubMed

Ahsan, M K; Hossain, M A; Sakeb, N; Khan, S I; Zaman, N

2013-10-01

This prospective interventional study carried out at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University and a private hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh during the period from October 2003 to September 2011. Surgical treatment of degenerative disc disease (DDD) should aim to re-expand the interbody space and stabilize until fusion is complete. The present study conducted to find out the efficacy of using interbody fusion device (Cage) to achieve interbody space re-expansion and fusion in surgical management of DDD. We have performed the interventional study on 53 patients, 42 female and 11 male, with age between 40 to 67 years. All the patients were followed up for 36 to 60 months (average 48 months). Forty seven patients were with spondylolisthesis and 06 with desiccated disc. All subjects were evaluated with regard to immediate and long term complications, radiological fusion and interbody space re-expansion and maintenance. The clinical outcome (pain and disability) was scored by standard pre and postoperative questionnaires. Intrusion, extrusion and migration of the interbody fusion cage were also assessed. Forty seven patients were considered to have satisfactory outcome in at least 36 months follow up. Pseudoarthrosis developed in 04 cases and 06 patients developed complications. In this series posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) with interbody cage and instrumentation in DDD showed significant fusion rate and maintenance of interbody space. Satisfactory outcome observed in 88.68% cases.

Economics and Environmental Compatibility of Fusion Reactors —Its Analysis and Coming Issues— 1.Energy Strategy of the 21st Century Taking Advantage of Fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okumura, Norihiro

There is some general concern that economic development in developing countries will hasten global warning. In terms of reducing CO2 emissions, fusion will have great potential as a primary energy in the late 21st century according to the results of WING model simulations based on scenario analysis, if the cost of fusion with hydrogen generation would become competitive compared with those of other substitutive energies. However, securing social acceptance is very important to maintain the fossil research funded by the government suffering from cumulative debt.

Myoblast fusion: lessons from flies and mice

PubMed Central

Abmayr, Susan M.; Pavlath, Grace K.

2012-01-01

The fusion of myoblasts into multinucleate syncytia plays a fundamental role in muscle function, as it supports the formation of extended sarcomeric arrays, or myofibrils, within a large volume of cytoplasm. Principles learned from the study of myoblast fusion not only enhance our understanding of myogenesis, but also contribute to our perspectives on membrane fusion and cell-cell fusion in a wide array of model organisms and experimental systems. Recent studies have advanced our views of the cell biological processes and crucial proteins that drive myoblast fusion. Here, we provide an overview of myoblast fusion in three model systems that have contributed much to our understanding of these events: the Drosophila embryo; developing and regenerating mouse muscle; and cultured rodent muscle cells. PMID:22274696

Assessment of groundwater quality: a fusion of geochemical and geophysical information via Bayesian neural networks.

PubMed

Maiti, Saumen; Erram, V C; Gupta, Gautam; Tiwari, Ram Krishna; Kulkarni, U D; Sangpal, R R

2013-04-01

Deplorable quality of groundwater arising from saltwater intrusion, natural leaching and anthropogenic activities is one of the major concerns for the society. Assessment of groundwater quality is, therefore, a primary objective of scientific research. Here, we propose an artificial neural network-based method set in a Bayesian neural network (BNN) framework and employ it to assess groundwater quality. The approach is based on analyzing 36 water samples and inverting up to 85 Schlumberger vertical electrical sounding data. We constructed a priori model by suitably parameterizing geochemical and geophysical data collected from the western part of India. The posterior model (post-inversion) was estimated using the BNN learning procedure and global hybrid Monte Carlo/Markov Chain Monte Carlo optimization scheme. By suitable parameterization of geochemical and geophysical parameters, we simulated 1,500 training samples, out of which 50 % samples were used for training and remaining 50 % were used for validation and testing. We show that the trained model is able to classify validation and test samples with 85 % and 80 % accuracy respectively. Based on cross-correlation analysis and Gibb's diagram of geochemical attributes, the groundwater qualities of the study area were classified into following three categories: "Very good", "Good", and "Unsuitable". The BNN model-based results suggest that groundwater quality falls mostly in the range of "Good" to "Very good" except for some places near the Arabian Sea. The new modeling results powered by uncertainty and statistical analyses would provide useful constrain, which could be utilized in monitoring and assessment of the groundwater quality.

The continuum fusion theory of signal detection applied to a bi-modal fusion problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaum, A.

2011-05-01

A new formalism has been developed that produces detection algorithms for model-based problems, in which one or more parameter values is unknown. Continuum Fusion can be used to generate different flavors of algorithm for any composite hypothesis testing problem. The methodology is defined by a fusion logic that can be translated into max/min conditions. Here it is applied to a simple sensor fusion model, but one for which the generalized likelihood ratio test is intractable. By contrast, a fusion-based response to the same problem can be devised that is solvable in closed form and represents a good approximation to the GLR test.

Application of the JDL data fusion process model for cyber security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giacobe, Nicklaus A.

2010-04-01

A number of cyber security technologies have proposed the use of data fusion to enhance the defensive capabilities of the network and aid in the development of situational awareness for the security analyst. While there have been advances in fusion technologies and the application of fusion in intrusion detection systems (IDSs), in particular, additional progress can be made by gaining a better understanding of a variety of data fusion processes and applying them to the cyber security application domain. This research explores the underlying processes identified in the Joint Directors of Laboratories (JDL) data fusion process model and further describes them in a cyber security context.

Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a stochastic generator of synthetic data was developed. Synthetic basin characteristics were randomised, keeping the statistical properties of observed physical and climatic variables in the homogeneous region. The synthetic flood quantiles were stochastically generated taking the regression equation as basis. The learnt Bayesian network was validated by the reliability diagram, the Brier Score and the ROC diagram, which are common measures used in the validation of probabilistic forecasts. Summarising, the flood quantile estimations through Bayesian networks supply information about the prediction uncertainty as a probability distribution function of discharges is given as result. Therefore, the Bayesian network model has application as a decision support for water resources and planning management.

Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

PubMed

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Online Variational Bayesian Filtering-Based Mobile Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

2014-01-01

The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer–Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying. PMID:25393784

A Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Models of Cognitive Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

typewriter with an infinite amount of paper. There is a space of documents that it is capable of producing, which includes things like The Tempest and does...not include, say, a Vermeer painting or a poem written in Russian. This typewriter represents a means of generating the hypothesis space for a Bayesian...learner: each possible document that can be typed on it is a hypothesis, the infinite set of documents producible by the typewriter is the latent

Dynamical foundations of the neural circuit for bayesian decision making.

PubMed

Morita, Kenji

2009-07-01

On the basis of accumulating behavioral and neural evidences, it has recently been proposed that the brain neural circuits of humans and animals are equipped with several specific properties, which ensure that perceptual decision making implemented by the circuits can be nearly optimal in terms of Bayesian inference. Here, I introduce the basic ideas of such a proposal and discuss its implications from the standpoint of biophysical modeling developed in the framework of dynamical systems.

A Bayesian Meta-Analysis on Prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus Infection among Chinese Volunteer Blood Donors

PubMed Central

Liu, Guang-ying; Zheng, Yang; Deng, Yan; Gao, Yan-yan; Wang, Lie

2013-01-01

Background Although transfusion-transmitted infection of hepatitis B virus (HBV) threatens the blood safety of China, the nationwide circumstance of HBV infection among blood donors is still unclear. Objectives To comprehensively estimate the prevalence of HBsAg positive and HBV occult infection (OBI) among Chinese volunteer blood donors through bayesian meta-analysis. Methods We performed an electronic search in Pub-Med, Web of Knowledge, Medline, Wanfang Data and CNKI, complemented by a hand search of relevant reference lists. Two authors independently extracted data from the eligible studies. Then two bayesian random-effect meta-analyses were performed, followed by bayesian meta-regressions. Results 5957412 and 571227 donors were identified in HBsAg group and OBI group, respectively. The pooled prevalence of HBsAg group and OBI group among donors is 1.085% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.859%∼1.398%) and 0.094% (95% CI 0.0578%∼0.1655%). For HBsAg group, subgroup analysis shows the more developed area has a lower prevalence than the less developed area; meta-regression indicates there is a significant decreasing trend in HBsAg positive prevalence with sampling year (beta = −0.1202, 95% −0.2081∼−0.0312). Conclusion Blood safety against HBV infection in China is suffering serious threats and the government should take effective measures to improve this situation. PMID:24236110

Prediction of community prevalence of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus: Bayesian approach.

PubMed Central

Carabin, Hélène; Escalona, Marisela; Marshall, Clare; Vivas-Martínez, Sarai; Botto, Carlos; Joseph, Lawrence; Basáñez, María-Gloria

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for human onchocerciasis with which to explore the factors that influence prevalence of microfilariae in the Amazonian focus of onchocerciasis and predict the probability of any community being at least mesoendemic (>20% prevalence of microfilariae), and thus in need of priority ivermectin treatment. METHODS: Models were developed with data from 732 individuals aged > or =15 years who lived in 29 Yanomami communities along four rivers of the south Venezuelan Orinoco basin. The models' abilities to predict prevalences of microfilariae in communities were compared. The deviance information criterion, Bayesian P-values, and residual values were used to select the best model with an approximate cross-validation procedure. FINDINGS: A three-level model that acknowledged clustering of infection within communities performed best, with host age and sex included at the individual level, a river-dependent altitude effect at the community level, and additional clustering of communities along rivers. This model correctly classified 25/29 (86%) villages with respect to their need for priority ivermectin treatment. CONCLUSION: Bayesian methods are a flexible and useful approach for public health research and control planning. Our model acknowledges the clustering of infection within communities, allows investigation of links between individual- or community-specific characteristics and infection, incorporates additional uncertainty due to missing covariate data, and informs policy decisions by predicting the probability that a new community is at least mesoendemic. PMID:12973640

Experimental design and Bayesian networks for enhancement of delta-endotoxin production by Bacillus thuringiensis.

PubMed

Ennouri, Karim; Ayed, Rayda Ben; Hassen, Hanen Ben; Mazzarello, Maura; Ottaviani, Ennio

2015-12-01

Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is a Gram-positive bacterium. The entomopathogenic activity of Bt is related to the existence of the crystal consisting of protoxins, also called delta-endotoxins. In order to optimize and explain the production of delta-endotoxins of Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki, we studied seven medium components: soybean meal, starch, KH₂PO₄, K₂HPO₄, FeSO₄, MnSO₄, and MgSO₄and their relationships with the concentration of delta-endotoxins using an experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) and Bayesian networks modelling. The effects of the ingredients of the culture medium on delta-endotoxins production were estimated. The developed model showed that different medium components are important for the Bacillus thuringiensis fermentation. The most important factors influenced the production of delta-endotoxins are FeSO₄, K2HPO₄, starch and soybean meal. Indeed, it was found that soybean meal, K₂HPO₄, KH₂PO₄and starch also showed positive effect on the delta-endotoxins production. However, FeSO4 and MnSO4 expressed opposite effect. The developed model, based on Bayesian techniques, can automatically learn emerging models in data to serve in the prediction of delta-endotoxins concentrations. The constructed model in the present study implies that experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) joined with Bayesian networks method could be used for identification of effect variables on delta-endotoxins variation.

Prediction of community prevalence of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus: Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Carabin, Hélène; Escalona, Marisela; Marshall, Clare; Vivas-Martínez, Sarai; Botto, Carlos; Joseph, Lawrence; Basáñez, María-Gloria

2003-01-01

To develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for human onchocerciasis with which to explore the factors that influence prevalence of microfilariae in the Amazonian focus of onchocerciasis and predict the probability of any community being at least mesoendemic (>20% prevalence of microfilariae), and thus in need of priority ivermectin treatment. Models were developed with data from 732 individuals aged > or =15 years who lived in 29 Yanomami communities along four rivers of the south Venezuelan Orinoco basin. The models' abilities to predict prevalences of microfilariae in communities were compared. The deviance information criterion, Bayesian P-values, and residual values were used to select the best model with an approximate cross-validation procedure. A three-level model that acknowledged clustering of infection within communities performed best, with host age and sex included at the individual level, a river-dependent altitude effect at the community level, and additional clustering of communities along rivers. This model correctly classified 25/29 (86%) villages with respect to their need for priority ivermectin treatment. Bayesian methods are a flexible and useful approach for public health research and control planning. Our model acknowledges the clustering of infection within communities, allows investigation of links between individual- or community-specific characteristics and infection, incorporates additional uncertainty due to missing covariate data, and informs policy decisions by predicting the probability that a new community is at least mesoendemic.

Bayesian coronal seismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arregui, Iñigo

2018-01-01

In contrast to the situation in a laboratory, the study of the solar atmosphere has to be pursued without direct access to the physical conditions of interest. Information is therefore incomplete and uncertain and inference methods need to be employed to diagnose the physical conditions and processes. One of such methods, solar atmospheric seismology, makes use of observed and theoretically predicted properties of waves to infer plasma and magnetic field properties. A recent development in solar atmospheric seismology consists in the use of inversion and model comparison methods based on Bayesian analysis. In this paper, the philosophy and methodology of Bayesian analysis are first explained. Then, we provide an account of what has been achieved so far from the application of these techniques to solar atmospheric seismology and a prospect of possible future extensions.

Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann

2011-01-01

Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.

Fc-fusion Proteins in Therapy: An Updated View.

PubMed

Jafari, Reza; Zolbanin, Naime M; Rafatpanah, Houshang; Majidi, Jafar; Kazemi, Tohid

2017-01-01

Fc-fusion proteins are composed of Fc region of IgG antibody (Hinge-CH2-CH3) and a desired linked protein. Fc region of Fc-fusion proteins can bind to neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) thereby rescuing it from degradation. The first therapeutic Fc-fusion protein was introduced for the treatment of AIDS. The molecular designing is the first stage in production of Fc-fusion proteins. The amino acid residues in the Fc region and linked protein are very important in the bioactivity and affinity of the fusion proteins. Although, therapeutic monoclonal antibodies are the top selling biologics but the application of therapeutic Fc-fusion proteins in clinic is in progress and among these medications Etanercept is the most effective in therapy. At present, eleven Fc-fusion proteins have been approved by FDA. There are novel Fc-fusion proteins which are in pre-clinical and clinical development. In this article, we review the molecular and biological characteristics of Fc-fusion proteins and then further discuss the features of novel therapeutic Fc-fusion proteins. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Rational improvement of gp41-targeting HIV-1 fusion inhibitors: an innovatively designed Ile-Asp-Leu tail with alternative conformations.

PubMed

Zhu, Yun; Su, Shan; Qin, Lili; Wang, Qian; Shi, Lei; Ma, Zhenxuan; Tang, Jianchao; Jiang, Shibo; Lu, Lu; Ye, Sheng; Zhang, Rongguang

2016-09-26

Peptides derived from the C-terminal heptad repeat (CHR) of HIV gp41 have been developed as effective fusion inhibitors against HIV-1, but facing the challenges of enhancing potency and stability. Here, we report a rationally designed novel HIV-1 fusion inhibitor derived from CHR-derived peptide (Trp628~Gln653, named CP), but with an innovative Ile-Asp-Leu tail (IDL) that dramatically increased the inhibitory activity by up to 100 folds. We also determined the crystal structures of artificial fusion peptides N36- and N43-L6-CP-IDL. Although the overall structures of both fusion peptides share the canonical six-helix bundle (6-HB) configuration, their IDL tails adopt two different conformations: a one-turn helix with the N36, and a hook-like structure with the longer N43. Structural comparison showed that the hook-like IDL tail possesses a larger interaction interface with NHR than the helical one. Further molecular dynamics simulations of the two 6-HBs and isolated CP-IDL peptides suggested that hook-like form of IDL tail can be stabilized by its binding to NHR trimer. Therefore, CP-IDL has potential for further development as a new HIV fusion inhibitor, and this strategy could be widely used in developing artificial fusion inhibitors against HIV and other enveloped viruses.

An Overview of Research and Design Activities at CTFusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, D. A.; Jarboe, T. R.; Hossack, A. C.

2016-10-01

CTFusion, a newly formed company dedicated to the development of compact, toroidal fusion energy, is a spin-off from the University of Washington that will build upon the successes of the HIT-SI research program. The mission of the company to develop net-gain fusion power cores that will serve as the heart of economical fusion power plants or radioactive-waste destroying burner reactors. The overarching vision and development plan of the company will be presented, along with a detailed justification and design for our next device, the HIT-TD (Technology Demonstration) prototype. By externally driving the edge current and imposing non-axisymmetric magnetic perturbations, HIT-TD should demonstrate the sustainment of stable spheromak configurations with Imposed-Dynamo Current Drive (IDCD), as was accomplished in the HIT-SI device, with higher current gains and temperatures than previously possible. HIT-TD, if successful, will be an instrumental step along this path to economical fusion energy, and will serve as the stepping stone to our Proof-Of-Principle device (HIT-PoP). Beyond the implications of higher performance, sustained spheromaks for fusion applications, the HIT-TD platform will provide a unique system to observe plasma self-organizational phenomena of interest for other fusion devices, and astrophysical systems as well. Lastly, preliminary nuclear engineering design simulations with the MCNP6 code of the HIT-FNSF (Fusion Nuclear Science Facility) device will be presented.

Mixture of autoregressive modeling orders and its implication on single trial EEG classification

PubMed Central

Atyabi, Adham; Shic, Frederick; Naples, Adam

2016-01-01

Autoregressive (AR) models are of commonly utilized feature types in Electroencephalogram (EEG) studies due to offering better resolution, smoother spectra and being applicable to short segments of data. Identifying correct AR’s modeling order is an open challenge. Lower model orders poorly represent the signal while higher orders increase noise. Conventional methods for estimating modeling order includes Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Final Prediction Error (FPE). This article assesses the hypothesis that appropriate mixture of multiple AR orders is likely to better represent the true signal compared to any single order. Better spectral representation of underlying EEG patterns can increase utility of AR features in Brain Computer Interface (BCI) systems by increasing timely & correctly responsiveness of such systems to operator’s thoughts. Two mechanisms of Evolutionary-based fusion and Ensemble-based mixture are utilized for identifying such appropriate mixture of modeling orders. The classification performance of the resultant AR-mixtures are assessed against several conventional methods utilized by the community including 1) A well-known set of commonly used orders suggested by the literature, 2) conventional order estimation approaches (e.g., AIC, BIC and FPE), 3) blind mixture of AR features originated from a range of well-known orders. Five datasets from BCI competition III that contain 2, 3 and 4 motor imagery tasks are considered for the assessment. The results indicate superiority of Ensemble-based modeling order mixture and evolutionary-based order fusion methods within all datasets. PMID:28740331

Audio-Visual Speaker Diarization Based on Spatiotemporal Bayesian Fusion.

PubMed

Gebru, Israel D; Ba, Sileye; Li, Xiaofei; Horaud, Radu

2018-05-01

Speaker diarization consists of assigning speech signals to people engaged in a dialogue. An audio-visual spatiotemporal diarization model is proposed. The model is well suited for challenging scenarios that consist of several participants engaged in multi-party interaction while they move around and turn their heads towards the other participants rather than facing the cameras and the microphones. Multiple-person visual tracking is combined with multiple speech-source localization in order to tackle the speech-to-person association problem. The latter is solved within a novel audio-visual fusion method on the following grounds: binaural spectral features are first extracted from a microphone pair, then a supervised audio-visual alignment technique maps these features onto an image, and finally a semi-supervised clustering method assigns binaural spectral features to visible persons. The main advantage of this method over previous work is that it processes in a principled way speech signals uttered simultaneously by multiple persons. The diarization itself is cast into a latent-variable temporal graphical model that infers speaker identities and speech turns, based on the output of an audio-visual association process, executed at each time slice, and on the dynamics of the diarization variable itself. The proposed formulation yields an efficient exact inference procedure. A novel dataset, that contains audio-visual training data as well as a number of scenarios involving several participants engaged in formal and informal dialogue, is introduced. The proposed method is thoroughly tested and benchmarked with respect to several state-of-the art diarization algorithms.

Present status and trends of image fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Dachao; Fu, Sheng; Cai, Yiheng

2009-10-01

Image fusion information extracted from multiple images which is more accurate and reliable than that from just a single image. Since various images contain different information aspects of the measured parts, and comprehensive information can be obtained by integrating them together. Image fusion is a main branch of the application of data fusion technology. At present, it was widely used in computer vision technology, remote sensing, robot vision, medical image processing and military field. This paper mainly presents image fusion's contents, research methods, and the status quo at home and abroad, and analyzes the development trend.

Sensor fusion for synthetic vision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pavel, M.; Larimer, J.; Ahumada, A.

1991-01-01

Display methodologies are explored for fusing images gathered by millimeter wave sensors with images rendered from an on-board terrain data base to facilitate visually guided flight and ground operations in low visibility conditions. An approach to fusion based on multiresolution image representation and processing is described which facilitates fusion of images differing in resolution within and between images. To investigate possible fusion methods, a workstation-based simulation environment is being developed.

Assessing Requirements Volatility and Risk Using Bayesian Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Michael S.

2010-01-01

There are many factors that affect the level of requirements volatility a system experiences over its lifecycle and the risk that volatility imparts. Improper requirements generation, undocumented user expectations, conflicting design decisions, and anticipated / unanticipated world states are representative of these volatility factors. Combined, these volatility factors can increase programmatic risk and adversely affect successful system development. This paper proposes that a Bayesian Network can be used to support reasonable judgments concerning the most likely sources and types of requirements volatility a developing system will experience prior to starting development and by doing so it is possible to predict the level of requirements volatility the system will experience over its lifecycle. This assessment offers valuable insight to the system's developers, particularly by providing a starting point for risk mitigation planning and execution.

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Predicting Drug Safety and Communicating Risk: Benefits of a Bayesian Approach.

PubMed

Lazic, Stanley E; Edmunds, Nicholas; Pollard, Christopher E

2018-03-01

Drug toxicity is a major source of attrition in drug discovery and development. Pharmaceutical companies routinely use preclinical data to predict clinical outcomes and continue to invest in new assays to improve predictions. However, there are many open questions about how to make the best use of available data, combine diverse data, quantify risk, and communicate risk and uncertainty to enable good decisions. The costs of suboptimal decisions are clear: resources are wasted and patients may be put at risk. We argue that Bayesian methods provide answers to all of these problems and use hERG-mediated QT prolongation as a case study. Benefits of Bayesian machine learning models include intuitive probabilistic statements of risk that incorporate all sources of uncertainty, the option to include diverse data and external information, and visualizations that have a clear link between the output from a statistical model and what this means for risk. Furthermore, Bayesian methods are easy to use with modern software, making their adoption for safety screening straightforward. We include R and Python code to encourage the adoption of these methods.

Bayesian analysis of the flutter margin method in aeroelasticity

DOE PAGES

Khalil, Mohammad; Poirel, Dominique; Sarkar, Abhijit

2016-08-27

A Bayesian statistical framework is presented for Zimmerman and Weissenburger flutter margin method which considers the uncertainties in aeroelastic modal parameters. The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the previously developed least-square based estimation technique which relies on the Gaussian approximation of the flutter margin probability density function (pdf). Using the measured free-decay responses at subcritical (preflutter) airspeeds, the joint non-Gaussain posterior pdf of the modal parameters is sampled using the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior MCMC samples of the modal parameters are then used to obtain the flutter margin pdfs and finally the fluttermore » speed pdf. The usefulness of the Bayesian flutter margin method is demonstrated using synthetic data generated from a two-degree-of-freedom pitch-plunge aeroelastic model. The robustness of the statistical framework is demonstrated using different sets of measurement data. In conclusion, it will be shown that the probabilistic (Bayesian) approach reduces the number of test points required in providing a flutter speed estimate for a given accuracy and precision.« less

Improved head direction command classification using an optimised Bayesian neural network.

PubMed

Nguyen, Son T; Nguyen, Hung T; Taylor, Philip B; Middleton, James

2006-01-01

Assistive technologies have recently emerged to improve the quality of life of severely disabled people by enhancing their independence in daily activities. Since many of those individuals have limited or non-existing control from the neck downward, alternative hands-free input modalities have become very important for these people to access assistive devices. In hands-free control, head movement has been proved to be a very effective user interface as it can provide a comfortable, reliable and natural way to access the device. Recently, neural networks have been shown to be useful not only for real-time pattern recognition but also for creating user-adaptive models. Since multi-layer perceptron neural networks trained using standard back-propagation may cause poor generalisation, the Bayesian technique has been proposed to improve the generalisation and robustness of these networks. This paper describes the use of Bayesian neural networks in developing a hands-free wheelchair control system. The experimental results show that with the optimised architecture, classification Bayesian neural networks can detect head commands of wheelchair users accurately irrespective to their levels of injuries.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data

PubMed Central

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J.; Dieters, Mark J.; Basford, Kaye E.

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances. PMID:26689369

Bayesian stock assessment of Pacific herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

PubMed

Muradian, Melissa L; Branch, Trevor A; Moffitt, Steven D; Hulson, Peter-John F

2017-01-01

The Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) population in Prince William Sound, Alaska crashed in 1993 and has yet to recover, affecting food web dynamics in the Sound and impacting Alaskan communities. To help researchers design and implement the most effective monitoring, management, and recovery programs, a Bayesian assessment of Prince William Sound herring was developed by reformulating the current model used by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. The Bayesian model estimated pre-fishery spawning biomass of herring age-3 and older in 2013 to be a median of 19,410 mt (95% credibility interval 12,150-31,740 mt), with a 54% probability that biomass in 2013 was below the management limit used to regulate fisheries in Prince William Sound. The main advantages of the Bayesian model are that it can more objectively weight different datasets and provide estimates of uncertainty for model parameters and outputs, unlike the weighted sum-of-squares used in the original model. In addition, the revised model could be used to manage herring stocks with a decision rule that considers both stock status and the uncertainty in stock status.

Bayesian Lagrangian Data Assimilation and Drifter Deployment Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutt, A.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.

2017-12-01

Ocean currents transport a variety of natural (e.g. water masses, phytoplankton, zooplankton, sediments, etc.) and man-made materials and other objects (e.g. pollutants, floating debris, search and rescue, etc.). Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) or the most influential/persistent material lines in a flow, provide a robust approach to characterize such Lagrangian transports and organize classic trajectories. Using the flow-map stochastic advection and a dynamically-orthogonal decomposition, we develop uncertainty prediction schemes for both Eulerian and Lagrangian variables. We then extend our Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-DO filter to a joint Eulerian-Lagrangian Bayesian data assimilation scheme. The resulting nonlinear filter allows the simultaneous non-Gaussian estimation of Eulerian variables (e.g. velocity, temperature, salinity, etc.) and Lagrangian variables (e.g. drifter/float positions, trajectories, LCSs, etc.). Its results are showcased using a double-gyre flow with a random frequency, a stochastic flow past a cylinder, and realistic ocean examples. We further show how our Bayesian mutual information and adaptive sampling equations provide a rigorous efficient methodology to plan optimal drifter deployment strategies and predict the optimal times, locations, and types of measurements to be collected.

Application of Multiple Imputation for Missing Values in Three-Way Three-Mode Multi-Environment Trial Data.

PubMed

Tian, Ting; McLachlan, Geoffrey J; Dieters, Mark J; Basford, Kaye E

2015-01-01

It is a common occurrence in plant breeding programs to observe missing values in three-way three-mode multi-environment trial (MET) data. We proposed modifications of models for estimating missing observations for these data arrays, and developed a novel approach in terms of hierarchical clustering. Multiple imputation (MI) was used in four ways, multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering, normal distribution model, normal regression model, and predictive mean match. The later three models used both Bayesian analysis and non-Bayesian analysis, while the first approach used a clustering procedure with randomly selected attributes and assigned real values from the nearest neighbour to the one with missing observations. Different proportions of data entries in six complete datasets were randomly selected to be missing and the MI methods were compared based on the efficiency and accuracy of estimating those values. The results indicated that the models using Bayesian analysis had slightly higher accuracy of estimation performance than those using non-Bayesian analysis but they were more time-consuming. However, the novel approach of multiple agglomerative hierarchical clustering demonstrated the overall best performances.

Bayesian modelling of the emission spectrum of the Joint European Torus Lithium Beam Emission Spectroscopy system.

PubMed

Kwak, Sehyun; Svensson, J; Brix, M; Ghim, Y-C

2016-02-01

A Bayesian model of the emission spectrum of the JET lithium beam has been developed to infer the intensity of the Li I (2p-2s) line radiation and associated uncertainties. The detected spectrum for each channel of the lithium beam emission spectroscopy system is here modelled by a single Li line modified by an instrumental function, Bremsstrahlung background, instrumental offset, and interference filter curve. Both the instrumental function and the interference filter curve are modelled with non-parametric Gaussian processes. All free parameters of the model, the intensities of the Li line, Bremsstrahlung background, and instrumental offset, are inferred using Bayesian probability theory with a Gaussian likelihood for photon statistics and electronic background noise. The prior distributions of the free parameters are chosen as Gaussians. Given these assumptions, the intensity of the Li line and corresponding uncertainties are analytically available using a Bayesian linear inversion technique. The proposed approach makes it possible to extract the intensity of Li line without doing a separate background subtraction through modulation of the Li beam.

Bayesian stock assessment of Pacific herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska

PubMed Central

Moffitt, Steven D.; Hulson, Peter-John F.

2017-01-01

The Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) population in Prince William Sound, Alaska crashed in 1993 and has yet to recover, affecting food web dynamics in the Sound and impacting Alaskan communities. To help researchers design and implement the most effective monitoring, management, and recovery programs, a Bayesian assessment of Prince William Sound herring was developed by reformulating the current model used by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. The Bayesian model estimated pre-fishery spawning biomass of herring age-3 and older in 2013 to be a median of 19,410 mt (95% credibility interval 12,150–31,740 mt), with a 54% probability that biomass in 2013 was below the management limit used to regulate fisheries in Prince William Sound. The main advantages of the Bayesian model are that it can more objectively weight different datasets and provide estimates of uncertainty for model parameters and outputs, unlike the weighted sum-of-squares used in the original model. In addition, the revised model could be used to manage herring stocks with a decision rule that considers both stock status and the uncertainty in stock status. PMID:28222151

Novel spinal instrumentation to enhance osteogenesis and fusion: a preliminary study.

PubMed

MacEwan, Matthew R; Talcott, Michael R; Moran, Daniel W; Leuthardt, Eric C

2016-09-01

OBJECTIVE Instrumented spinal fusion continues to exhibit high failure rates in patients undergoing multilevel lumbar fusion or pseudarthrosis revision; with Grade II or higher spondylolisthesis; or in those possessing risk factors such as obesity, tobacco use, or metabolic disorders. Direct current (DC) electrical stimulation of bone growth represents a unique surgical adjunct in vertebral fusion procedures, yet existing spinal fusion stimulators are not optimized to enhance interbody fusion. To develop an advanced method of applying DC electrical stimulation to promote interbody fusion, a novel osteogenic spinal system capable of routing DC through rigid instrumentation and into the vertebral bodies was fabricated. A pilot study was designed to assess the feasibility of osteogenic instrumentation and compare the ability of osteogenic instrumentation to promote successful interbody fusion in vivo to standard spinal instrumentation with autograft. METHODS Instrumented, single-level, posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) with autologous graft was performed at L4-5 in adult Toggenburg/Alpine goats, using both osteogenic spinal instrumentation (plus electrical stimulation) and standard spinal instrumentation (no electrical stimulation). At terminal time points (3 months, 6 months), animals were killed and lumbar spines were explanted for radiographic analysis using a SOMATOM Dual Source Definition CT Scanner and high-resolution Microcat II CT Scanner. Trabecular continuity, radiodensity within the fusion mass, and regional bone formation were examined to determine successful spinal fusion. RESULTS Quantitative analysis of average bone density in pedicle screw beds confirmed that electroactive pedicle screws used in the osteogenic spinal system focally enhanced bone density in instrumented vertebral bodies. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of high-resolution CT scans of explanted lumbar spines further demonstrated that the osteogenic spinal system induced solid bony fusion across the L4-5 disc space as early as 6 weeks postoperatively. In comparison, inactive spinal instrumentation with autograft was unable to promote successful interbody fusion by 6 months postoperatively. CONCLUSIONS Results of this study demonstrate that novel osteogenic spinal instrumentation supports interbody fusion through the focal delivery of DC electrical stimulation. With further technical development and scientific/clinical validation, osteogenic spinal instrumentation may offer a unique alternative to biological scaffolds and pharmaceutical adjuncts used in spinal fusion procedures.

A visual analytic framework for data fusion in investigative intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Guoray; Gross, Geoff; Llinas, James; Hall, David

2014-05-01

Intelligence analysis depends on data fusion systems to provide capabilities of detecting and tracking important objects, events, and their relationships in connection to an analytical situation. However, automated data fusion technologies are not mature enough to offer reliable and trustworthy information for situation awareness. Given the trend of increasing sophistication of data fusion algorithms and loss of transparency in data fusion process, analysts are left out of the data fusion process cycle with little to no control and confidence on the data fusion outcome. Following the recent rethinking of data fusion as human-centered process, this paper proposes a conceptual framework towards developing alternative data fusion architecture. This idea is inspired by the recent advances in our understanding of human cognitive systems, the science of visual analytics, and the latest thinking about human-centered data fusion. Our conceptual framework is supported by an analysis of the limitation of existing fully automated data fusion systems where the effectiveness of important algorithmic decisions depend on the availability of expert knowledge or the knowledge of the analyst's mental state in an investigation. The success of this effort will result in next generation data fusion systems that can be better trusted while maintaining high throughput.

Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2006-01-01

Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B; Neyer, Franz J; van Aken, Marcel AG

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided. PMID:24116396

Current Trends of Blanket Research and Deveopment in Japan 4.Blanket Technology Development Using ITER for Demonstration and Commercial Fusion Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akiba, Masato; Jitsukawa, Shiroh; Muroga, Takeo

This paper describes the status of blanket technology and material development for fusion power demonstration plants and commercial fusion plants. In particular, the ITER Test Blanket Module, IFMIF, JAERI/DOE HFIR and JUPITER-II projects are highlighted, which have the important role to develop these technology. The ITER Test Blanket Module project has been conducted to demonstrate tritium breeding and power generation using test blanket modules, which will be installed into the ITER facility. For structural material development, the present research status is overviewed on reduced activation ferritic steel, vanadium alloys, and SiC/SiC composites.

Systematic identification and analysis of frequent gene fusion events in metabolic pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henry, Christopher S.; Lerma-Ortiz, Claudia; Gerdes, Svetlana Y.

Here, gene fusions are the most powerful type of in silico-derived functional associations. However, many fusion compilations were made when <100 genomes were available, and algorithms for identifying fusions need updating to handle the current avalanche of sequenced genomes. The availability of a large fusion dataset would help probe functional associations and enable systematic analysis of where and why fusion events occur. As a result, here we present a systematic analysis of fusions in prokaryotes. We manually generated two training sets: (i) 121 fusions in the model organism Escherichia coli; (ii) 131 fusions found in B vitamin metabolism. These setsmore » were used to develop a fusion prediction algorithm that captured the training set fusions with only 7 % false negatives and 50 % false positives, a substantial improvement over existing approaches. This algorithm was then applied to identify 3.8 million potential fusions across 11,473 genomes. The results of the analysis are available in a searchable database. A functional analysis identified 3,000 reactions associated with frequent fusion events and revealed areas of metabolism where fusions are particularly prevalent. In conclusion, customary definitions of fusions were shown to be ambiguous, and a stricter one was proposed. Exploring the genes participating in fusion events showed that they most commonly encode transporters, regulators, and metabolic enzymes. The major rationales for fusions between metabolic genes appear to be overcoming pathway bottlenecks, avoiding toxicity, controlling competing pathways, and facilitating expression and assembly of protein complexes. Finally, our fusion dataset provides powerful clues to decipher the biological activities of domains of unknown function.« less

Systematic identification and analysis of frequent gene fusion events in metabolic pathways

DOE PAGES

Henry, Christopher S.; Lerma-Ortiz, Claudia; Gerdes, Svetlana Y.; ...

2016-06-24

Here, gene fusions are the most powerful type of in silico-derived functional associations. However, many fusion compilations were made when <100 genomes were available, and algorithms for identifying fusions need updating to handle the current avalanche of sequenced genomes. The availability of a large fusion dataset would help probe functional associations and enable systematic analysis of where and why fusion events occur. As a result, here we present a systematic analysis of fusions in prokaryotes. We manually generated two training sets: (i) 121 fusions in the model organism Escherichia coli; (ii) 131 fusions found in B vitamin metabolism. These setsmore » were used to develop a fusion prediction algorithm that captured the training set fusions with only 7 % false negatives and 50 % false positives, a substantial improvement over existing approaches. This algorithm was then applied to identify 3.8 million potential fusions across 11,473 genomes. The results of the analysis are available in a searchable database. A functional analysis identified 3,000 reactions associated with frequent fusion events and revealed areas of metabolism where fusions are particularly prevalent. In conclusion, customary definitions of fusions were shown to be ambiguous, and a stricter one was proposed. Exploring the genes participating in fusion events showed that they most commonly encode transporters, regulators, and metabolic enzymes. The major rationales for fusions between metabolic genes appear to be overcoming pathway bottlenecks, avoiding toxicity, controlling competing pathways, and facilitating expression and assembly of protein complexes. Finally, our fusion dataset provides powerful clues to decipher the biological activities of domains of unknown function.« less

Accuracy of volume measurement using 3D ultrasound and development of CT-3D US image fusion algorithm for prostate cancer radiotherapy.

PubMed

Baek, Jihye; Huh, Jangyoung; Kim, Myungsoo; Hyun An, So; Oh, Yoonjin; Kim, DongYoung; Chung, Kwangzoo; Cho, Sungho; Lee, Rena

2013-02-01

To evaluate the accuracy of measuring volumes using three-dimensional ultrasound (3D US), and to verify the feasibility of the replacement of CT-MR fusion images with CT-3D US in radiotherapy treatment planning. Phantoms, consisting of water, contrast agent, and agarose, were manufactured. The volume was measured using 3D US, CT, and MR devices. A CT-3D US and MR-3D US image fusion software was developed using the Insight Toolkit library in order to acquire three-dimensional fusion images. The quality of the image fusion was evaluated using metric value and fusion images. Volume measurement, using 3D US, shows a 2.8 ± 1.5% error, 4.4 ± 3.0% error for CT, and 3.1 ± 2.0% error for MR. The results imply that volume measurement using the 3D US devices has a similar accuracy level to that of CT and MR. Three-dimensional image fusion of CT-3D US and MR-3D US was successfully performed using phantom images. Moreover, MR-3D US image fusion was performed using human bladder images. 3D US could be used in the volume measurement of human bladders and prostates. CT-3D US image fusion could be used in monitoring the target position in each fraction of external beam radiation therapy. Moreover, the feasibility of replacing the CT-MR image fusion to the CT-3D US in radiotherapy treatment planning was verified.

Live imaging of mouse secondary palate fusion

PubMed Central

Kim, Seungil; Prochazka, Jan; Bush, Jeffrey O.

2017-01-01

LONG ABSTRACT The fusion of the secondary palatal shelves to form the intact secondary palate is a key process in mammalian development and its disruption can lead to cleft secondary palate, a common congenital anomaly in humans. Secondary palate fusion has been extensively studied leading to several proposed cellular mechanisms that may mediate this process. However, these studies have been mostly performed on fixed embryonic tissues at progressive timepoints during development or in fixed explant cultures analyzed at static timepoints. Static analysis is limited for the analysis of dynamic morphogenetic processes such a palate fusion and what types of dynamic cellular behaviors mediate palatal fusion is incompletely understood. Here we describe a protocol for live imaging of ex vivo secondary palate fusion in mouse embryos. To examine cellular behaviors of palate fusion, epithelial-specific Keratin14-cre was used to label palate epithelial cells in ROSA26-mTmGflox reporter embryos. To visualize filamentous actin, Lifeact-mRFPruby reporter mice were used. Live imaging of secondary palate fusion was performed by dissecting recently-adhered secondary palatal shelves of embryonic day (E) 14.5 stage embryos and culturing in agarose-containing media on a glass bottom dish to enable imaging with an inverted confocal microscope. Using this method, we have detected a variety of novel cellular behaviors during secondary palate fusion. An appreciation of how distinct cell behaviors are coordinated in space and time greatly contributes to our understanding of this dynamic morphogenetic process. This protocol can be applied to mutant mouse lines, or cultures treated with pharmacological inhibitors to further advance understanding of how secondary palate fusion is controlled. PMID:28784960

Fusion for Space Propulsion and Plasma Liner Driven MTF

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thio, Y.C. Francis; Rodgers, Stephen L. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The need for fusion propulsion for interplanetary flights is discussed. For a propulsion system, there are three important system attributes: (1) The absolute amount of energy available, (2) the propellant exhaust velocity, and (3) the jet power per unit mass of the propulsion system (specific power). For human exploration and development of the solar system, propellant exhaust velocity in excess of 100 km/s and specific power in excess of 10 kW/kg are required. Chemical combustion cannot meet the requirement in propellant exhaust velocity. Nuclear fission processes typically result in producing energy in the form of heat that needs to be manipulated at temperatures limited by materials to about 2,800 K. Using the energy to heat a low atomic weight propellant cannot overcome the problem. Alternatively the energy can be converted into electricity which is then used to accelerate particles to high exhaust velocity. The necessary power conversion and conditioning equipment, however, increases the mass of the propulsion system for the same jet power by more than two orders of magnitude over chemical system, thus greatly limits the thrust-to-weight ratio attainable. If fusion can be developed, fusion appears to have the best of all worlds in terms of propulsion - it can provide the absolute amount, the propellant exhaust velocity, and the high specific jet power. An intermediate step towards pure fusion propulsion is a bimodal system in which a fission reactor is used to provide some of the energy to drive a fusion propulsion unit. The technical issues related to fusion for space propulsion are discussed. There are similarities as well as differences at the system level between applying fusion to propulsion and to terrestrial electrical power generation. The differences potentially provide a wider window of opportunities for applying fusion to propulsion. For example, pulsed approaches to fusion may be attractive for the propulsion application. This is particularly so in the light of significant development of the enabling pulsed power component technologies that have occurred in the last two decades because of defense and other energy requirements. The extreme states of matter required to produce fusion reactions may be more readily realizable in the pulsed states with less system mass than in steady states. Significant saving in system mass may result in pulsed fusion systems using plasmas in the appropriate density regimes. Magnetized target fusion, which attempts to combine the favorable attributes of magnetic confinement and inertial compression-containment into one single integrated fusion scheme, appears to have benefits that are worth exploring for propulsion application.

Bayesian estimation and use of high-throughput remote sensing indices for quantitative genetic analyses of leaf growth.

PubMed

Baker, Robert L; Leong, Wen Fung; An, Nan; Brock, Marcus T; Rubin, Matthew J; Welch, Stephen; Weinig, Cynthia

2018-02-01

We develop Bayesian function-valued trait models that mathematically isolate genetic mechanisms underlying leaf growth trajectories by factoring out genotype-specific differences in photosynthesis. Remote sensing data can be used instead of leaf-level physiological measurements. Characterizing the genetic basis of traits that vary during ontogeny and affect plant performance is a major goal in evolutionary biology and agronomy. Describing genetic programs that specifically regulate morphological traits can be complicated by genotypic differences in physiological traits. We describe the growth trajectories of leaves using novel Bayesian function-valued trait (FVT) modeling approaches in Brassica rapa recombinant inbred lines raised in heterogeneous field settings. While frequentist approaches estimate parameter values by treating each experimental replicate discretely, Bayesian models can utilize information in the global dataset, potentially leading to more robust trait estimation. We illustrate this principle by estimating growth asymptotes in the face of missing data and comparing heritabilities of growth trajectory parameters estimated by Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Using pseudo-Bayes factors, we compare the performance of an initial Bayesian logistic growth model and a model that incorporates carbon assimilation (A max ) as a cofactor, thus statistically accounting for genotypic differences in carbon resources. We further evaluate two remotely sensed spectroradiometric indices, photochemical reflectance (pri2) and MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (mtci) as covariates in lieu of A max , because these two indices were genetically correlated with A max across years and treatments yet allow much higher throughput compared to direct leaf-level gas-exchange measurements. For leaf lengths in uncrowded settings, including A max improves model fit over the initial model. The mtci and pri2 indices also outperform direct A max measurements. Of particular importance for evolutionary biologists and plant breeders, hierarchical Bayesian models estimating FVT parameters improve heritabilities compared to frequentist approaches.

Extracellular annexins and dynamin are important for sequential steps in myoblast fusion

PubMed Central

Leikina, Evgenia; Melikov, Kamran; Sanyal, Sarmistha; Verma, Santosh K.; Eun, Bokkee; Gebert, Claudia; Pfeifer, Karl; Lizunov, Vladimir A.; Kozlov, Michael M.

2013-01-01

Myoblast fusion into multinucleated myotubes is a crucial step in skeletal muscle development and regeneration. Here, we accumulated murine myoblasts at the ready-to-fuse stage by blocking formation of early fusion intermediates with lysophosphatidylcholine. Lifting the block allowed us to explore a largely synchronized fusion. We found that initial merger of two cell membranes detected as lipid mixing involved extracellular annexins A1 and A5 acting in a functionally redundant manner. Subsequent stages of myoblast fusion depended on dynamin activity, phosphatidylinositol(4,5)bisphosphate content, and cell metabolism. Uncoupling fusion from preceding stages of myogenesis will help in the analysis of the interplay between protein machines that initiate and complete cell unification and in the identification of additional protein players controlling different fusion stages. PMID:23277424

NASA-NIAC 2001 Phase I Research Grant on Aneutronic Fusion Spacecraft Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tarditi, Alfonso G. (Principal Investigator); Scott, John H.; Miley, George H.

2012-01-01

This study was developed because the recognized need of defining of a new spacecraft architecture suitable for aneutronic fusion and featuring game-changing space travel capabilities. The core of this architecture is the definition of a new kind of fusion-based space propulsion system. This research is not about exploring a new fusion energy concept, it actually assumes the availability of an aneutronic fusion energy reactor. The focus is on providing the best (most efficient) utilization of fusion energy for propulsion purposes. The rationale is that without a proper architecture design even the utilization of a fusion reactor as a prime energy source for spacecraft propulsion is not going to provide the required performances for achieving a substantial change of current space travel capabilities.

Enhancement of Tropical Land Cover Mapping with Wavelet-Based Fusion and Unsupervised Clustering of SAR and Landsat Image Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeMoigne, Jacqueline; Laporte, Nadine; Netanyahuy, Nathan S.; Zukor, Dorothy (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The characterization and the mapping of land cover/land use of forest areas, such as the Central African rainforest, is a very complex task. This complexity is mainly due to the extent of such areas and, as a consequence, to the lack of full and continuous cloud-free coverage of those large regions by one single remote sensing instrument, In order to provide improved vegetation maps of Central Africa and to develop forest monitoring techniques for applications at the local and regional scales, we propose to utilize multi-sensor remote sensing observations coupled with in-situ data. Fusion and clustering of multi-sensor data are the first steps towards the development of such a forest monitoring system. In this paper, we will describe some preliminary experiments involving the fusion of SAR and Landsat image data of the Lope Reserve in Gabon. Similarly to previous fusion studies, our fusion method is wavelet-based. The fusion provides a new image data set which contains more detailed texture features and preserves the large homogeneous regions that are observed by the Thematic Mapper sensor. The fusion step is followed by unsupervised clustering and provides a vegetation map of the area.

Infrared and visible image fusion scheme based on NSCT and low-level visual features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Huafeng; Qiu, Hongmei; Yu, Zhengtao; Zhang, Yafei

2016-05-01

Multi-scale transform (MST) is an efficient tool for image fusion. Recently, many fusion methods have been developed based on different MSTs, and they have shown potential application in many fields. In this paper, we propose an effective infrared and visible image fusion scheme in nonsubsampled contourlet transform (NSCT) domain, in which the NSCT is firstly employed to decompose each of the source images into a series of high frequency subbands and one low frequency subband. To improve the fusion performance we designed two new activity measures for fusion of the lowpass subbands and the highpass subbands. These measures are developed based on the fact that the human visual system (HVS) percept the image quality mainly according to its some low-level features. Then, the selection principles of different subbands are presented based on the corresponding activity measures. Finally, the merged subbands are constructed according to the selection principles, and the final fused image is produced by applying the inverse NSCT on these merged subbands. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method over the state-of-the-art fusion methods in terms of both visual effect and objective evaluation results.

A Bayesian prediction model between a biomarker and the clinical endpoint for dichotomous variables.

PubMed

Jiang, Zhiwei; Song, Yang; Shou, Qiong; Xia, Jielai; Wang, William

2014-12-20

Early biomarkers are helpful for predicting clinical endpoints and for evaluating efficacy in clinical trials even if the biomarker cannot replace clinical outcome as a surrogate. The building and evaluation of an association model between biomarkers and clinical outcomes are two equally important concerns regarding the prediction of clinical outcome. This paper is to address both issues in a Bayesian framework. A Bayesian meta-analytic approach is proposed to build a prediction model between the biomarker and clinical endpoint for dichotomous variables. Compared with other Bayesian methods, the proposed model only requires trial-level summary data of historical trials in model building. By using extensive simulations, we evaluate the link function and the application condition of the proposed Bayesian model under scenario (i) equal positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) and (ii) higher NPV and lower PPV. In the simulations, the patient-level data is generated to evaluate the meta-analytic model. PPV and NPV are employed to describe the patient-level relationship between the biomarker and the clinical outcome. The minimum number of historical trials to be included in building the model is also considered. It is seen from the simulations that the logit link function performs better than the odds and cloglog functions under both scenarios. PPV/NPV ≥0.5 for equal PPV and NPV, and PPV + NPV ≥1 for higher NPV and lower PPV are proposed in order to predict clinical outcome accurately and precisely when the proposed model is considered. Twenty historical trials are required to be included in model building when PPV and NPV are equal. For unequal PPV and NPV, the minimum number of historical trials for model building is proposed to be five. A hypothetical example shows an application of the proposed model in global drug development. The proposed Bayesian model is able to predict well the clinical endpoint from the observed biomarker data for dichotomous variables as long as the conditions are satisfied. It could be applied in drug development. But the practical problems in applications have to be studied in further research.

The Fight for Fusion: A Modern Nuclear War.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Adam; Sereda, David

1992-01-01

Describes the work of Bogdan Maglich with helium-based fusion and barriers to its development resulting from lack of government support, competition for funding, and political pet projects. Compares tritium-based to helium-based fusion and the potential for nonradioactive nuclear power to supply the world's energy requirements with no negative…

Selected aspects of prior and likelihood information for a Bayesian classifier in a road safety analysis.

PubMed

Nowakowska, Marzena

2017-04-01

The development of the Bayesian logistic regression model classifying the road accident severity is discussed. The already exploited informative priors (method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation, and two-stage Bayesian updating), along with the original idea of a Boot prior proposal, are investigated when no expert opinion has been available. In addition, two possible approaches to updating the priors, in the form of unbalanced and balanced training data sets, are presented. The obtained logistic Bayesian models are assessed on the basis of a deviance information criterion (DIC), highest probability density (HPD) intervals, and coefficients of variation estimated for the model parameters. The verification of the model accuracy has been based on sensitivity, specificity and the harmonic mean of sensitivity and specificity, all calculated from a test data set. The models obtained from the balanced training data set have a better classification quality than the ones obtained from the unbalanced training data set. The two-stage Bayesian updating prior model and the Boot prior model, both identified with the use of the balanced training data set, outperform the non-informative, method of moments, and maximum likelihood estimation prior models. It is important to note that one should be careful when interpreting the parameters since different priors can lead to different models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can Bayesian Theories of Autism Spectrum Disorder Help Improve Clinical Practice?

PubMed

Haker, Helene; Schneebeli, Maya; Stephan, Klaas Enno

2016-01-01

Diagnosis and individualized treatment of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) represent major problems for contemporary psychiatry. Tackling these problems requires guidance by a pathophysiological theory. In this paper, we consider recent theories that re-conceptualize ASD from a "Bayesian brain" perspective, which posit that the core abnormality of ASD resides in perceptual aberrations due to a disbalance in the precision of prediction errors (sensory noise) relative to the precision of predictions (prior beliefs). This results in percepts that are dominated by sensory inputs and less guided by top-down regularization and shifts the perceptual focus to detailed aspects of the environment with difficulties in extracting meaning. While these Bayesian theories have inspired ongoing empirical studies, their clinical implications have not yet been carved out. Here, we consider how this Bayesian perspective on disease mechanisms in ASD might contribute to improving clinical care for affected individuals. Specifically, we describe a computational strategy, based on generative (e.g., hierarchical Bayesian) models of behavioral and functional neuroimaging data, for establishing diagnostic tests. These tests could provide estimates of specific cognitive processes underlying ASD and delineate pathophysiological mechanisms with concrete treatment targets. Written with a clinical audience in mind, this article outlines how the development of computational diagnostics applicable to behavioral and functional neuroimaging data in routine clinical practice could not only fundamentally alter our concept of ASD but eventually also transform the clinical management of this disorder.

Can Bayesian Theories of Autism Spectrum Disorder Help Improve Clinical Practice?

PubMed Central

Haker, Helene; Schneebeli, Maya; Stephan, Klaas Enno

2016-01-01

Diagnosis and individualized treatment of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) represent major problems for contemporary psychiatry. Tackling these problems requires guidance by a pathophysiological theory. In this paper, we consider recent theories that re-conceptualize ASD from a “Bayesian brain” perspective, which posit that the core abnormality of ASD resides in perceptual aberrations due to a disbalance in the precision of prediction errors (sensory noise) relative to the precision of predictions (prior beliefs). This results in percepts that are dominated by sensory inputs and less guided by top-down regularization and shifts the perceptual focus to detailed aspects of the environment with difficulties in extracting meaning. While these Bayesian theories have inspired ongoing empirical studies, their clinical implications have not yet been carved out. Here, we consider how this Bayesian perspective on disease mechanisms in ASD might contribute to improving clinical care for affected individuals. Specifically, we describe a computational strategy, based on generative (e.g., hierarchical Bayesian) models of behavioral and functional neuroimaging data, for establishing diagnostic tests. These tests could provide estimates of specific cognitive processes underlying ASD and delineate pathophysiological mechanisms with concrete treatment targets. Written with a clinical audience in mind, this article outlines how the development of computational diagnostics applicable to behavioral and functional neuroimaging data in routine clinical practice could not only fundamentally alter our concept of ASD but eventually also transform the clinical management of this disorder. PMID:27378955

Probabilistic inference using linear Gaussian importance sampling for hybrid Bayesian networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wei; Chang, K. C.

2005-05-01

Probabilistic inference for Bayesian networks is in general NP-hard using either exact algorithms or approximate methods. However, for very complex networks, only the approximate methods such as stochastic sampling could be used to provide a solution given any time constraint. There are several simulation methods currently available. They include logic sampling (the first proposed stochastic method for Bayesian networks, the likelihood weighting algorithm) the most commonly used simulation method because of its simplicity and efficiency, the Markov blanket scoring method, and the importance sampling algorithm. In this paper, we first briefly review and compare these available simulation methods, then we propose an improved importance sampling algorithm called linear Gaussian importance sampling algorithm for general hybrid model (LGIS). LGIS is aimed for hybrid Bayesian networks consisting of both discrete and continuous random variables with arbitrary distributions. It uses linear function and Gaussian additive noise to approximate the true conditional probability distribution for continuous variable given both its parents and evidence in a Bayesian network. One of the most important features of the newly developed method is that it can adaptively learn the optimal important function from the previous samples. We test the inference performance of LGIS using a 16-node linear Gaussian model and a 6-node general hybrid model. The performance comparison with other well-known methods such as Junction tree (JT) and likelihood weighting (LW) shows that LGIS-GHM is very promising.

Application of Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filter in parameter calibration of groundwater flow model in PingTung Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Shao-Yong; Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

2017-04-01

Due to the limited hydrogeological observation data and high levels of uncertainty within, parameter estimation of the groundwater model has been an important issue. There are many methods of parameter estimation, for example, Kalman filter provides a real-time calibration of parameters through measurement of groundwater monitoring wells, related methods such as Extended Kalman Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter are widely applied in groundwater research. However, Kalman Filter method is limited to linearity. This study propose a novel method, Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering, which provides a method that can considers the uncertainty of data in parameter estimation. With this two methods, we can estimate parameter by given hard data (certain) and soft data (uncertain) in the same time. In this study, we use Python and QGIS in groundwater model (MODFLOW) and development of Extended Kalman Filter and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering in Python in parameter estimation. This method may provide a conventional filtering method and also consider the uncertainty of data. This study was conducted through numerical model experiment to explore, combine Bayesian maximum entropy filter and a hypothesis for the architecture of MODFLOW groundwater model numerical estimation. Through the virtual observation wells to simulate and observe the groundwater model periodically. The result showed that considering the uncertainty of data, the Bayesian maximum entropy filter will provide an ideal result of real-time parameters estimation.

Bayesian learning and the psychology of rule induction

PubMed Central

Endress, Ansgar D.

2014-01-01

In recent years, Bayesian learning models have been applied to an increasing variety of domains. While such models have been criticized on theoretical grounds, the underlying assumptions and predictions are rarely made concrete and tested experimentally. Here, I use Frank and Tenenbaum's (2011) Bayesian model of rule-learning as a case study to spell out the underlying assumptions, and to confront them with the empirical results Frank and Tenenbaum (2011) propose to simulate, as well as with novel experiments. While rule-learning is arguably well suited to rational Bayesian approaches, I show that their models are neither psychologically plausible nor ideal observer models. Further, I show that their central assumption is unfounded: humans do not always preferentially learn more specific rules, but, at least in some situations, those rules that happen to be more salient. Even when granting the unsupported assumptions, I show that all of the experiments modeled by Frank and Tenenbaum (2011) either contradict their models, or have a large number of more plausible interpretations. I provide an alternative account of the experimental data based on simple psychological mechanisms, and show that this account both describes the data better, and is easier to falsify. I conclude that, despite the recent surge in Bayesian models of cognitive phenomena, psychological phenomena are best understood by developing and testing psychological theories rather than models that can be fit to virtually any data. PMID:23454791

Bayesian-MCMC-based parameter estimation of stealth aircraft RCS models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Wei; Dai, Xiao-Xia; Feng, Yuan

2015-12-01

When modeling a stealth aircraft with low RCS (Radar Cross Section), conventional parameter estimation methods may cause a deviation from the actual distribution, owing to the fact that the characteristic parameters are estimated via directly calculating the statistics of RCS. The Bayesian-Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Bayesian-MCMC) method is introduced herein to estimate the parameters so as to improve the fitting accuracies of fluctuation models. The parameter estimations of the lognormal and the Legendre polynomial models are reformulated in the Bayesian framework. The MCMC algorithm is then adopted to calculate the parameter estimates. Numerical results show that the distribution curves obtained by the proposed method exhibit improved consistence with the actual ones, compared with those fitted by the conventional method. The fitting accuracy could be improved by no less than 25% for both fluctuation models, which implies that the Bayesian-MCMC method might be a good candidate among the optimal parameter estimation methods for stealth aircraft RCS models. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61101173), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 613206), the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2012AA01A308), the State Scholarship Fund by the China Scholarship Council (CSC), and the Oversea Academic Training Funds, and University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC).

A surrogate-based sensitivity quantification and Bayesian inversion of a regional groundwater flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Izady, Azizallah; Abdalla, Osman A.; Amerjeed, Mansoor

2018-02-01

Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides an explicit framework for stochastic calibration of hydrogeologic models accounting for uncertainties; however, the MCMC sampling entails a large number of model calls, and could easily become computationally unwieldy if the high-fidelity hydrogeologic model simulation is time consuming. This study proposes a surrogate-based Bayesian framework to address this notorious issue, and illustrates the methodology by inverse modeling a regional MODFLOW model. The high-fidelity groundwater model is approximated by a fast statistical model using Bagging Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (BMARS) algorithm, and hence the MCMC sampling can be efficiently performed. In this study, the MODFLOW model is developed to simulate the groundwater flow in an arid region of Oman consisting of mountain-coast aquifers, and used to run representative simulations to generate training dataset for BMARS model construction. A BMARS-based Sobol' method is also employed to efficiently calculate input parameter sensitivities, which are used to evaluate and rank their importance for the groundwater flow model system. According to sensitivity analysis, insensitive parameters are screened out of Bayesian inversion of the MODFLOW model, further saving computing efforts. The posterior probability distribution of input parameters is efficiently inferred from the prescribed prior distribution using observed head data, demonstrating that the presented BMARS-based Bayesian framework is an efficient tool to reduce parameter uncertainties of a groundwater system.

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are…

Control of muscle formation by the fusogenic micropeptide myomixer

PubMed Central

Bi, Pengpeng; Ramirez-Martinez, Andres; Li, Hui; Cannavino, Jessica; McAnally, John R.; Shelton, John M.; Sánchez-Ortiz, Efrain; Bassel-Duby, Rhonda; Olson, Eric N.

2017-01-01

Skeletal muscle formation occurs through fusion of myoblasts to form multinucleated myofibers. From a genome-wide clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) loss-of-function screen for genes required for myoblast fusion and myogenesis, we discovered an 84–amino acid muscle-specific peptide that we call Myomixer. Myomixer expression coincides with myoblast differentiation and is essential for fusion and skeletal muscle formation during embryogenesis. Myomixer localizes to the plasma membrane, where it promotes myoblast fusion and associates with Myomaker, a fusogenic membrane protein. Myomixer together with Myomaker can also induce fibroblast-fibroblast fusion and fibroblast-myoblast fusion. We conclude that the Myomixer-Myomaker pair controls the critical step in myofiber formation during muscle development. PMID:28386024

Bayesian correction for covariate measurement error: A frequentist evaluation and comparison with regression calibration.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jonathan W; Keogh, Ruth H

2018-06-01

Bayesian approaches for handling covariate measurement error are well established and yet arguably are still relatively little used by researchers. For some this is likely due to unfamiliarity or disagreement with the Bayesian inferential paradigm. For others a contributory factor is the inability of standard statistical packages to perform such Bayesian analyses. In this paper, we first give an overview of the Bayesian approach to handling covariate measurement error, and contrast it with regression calibration, arguably the most commonly adopted approach. We then argue why the Bayesian approach has a number of statistical advantages compared to regression calibration and demonstrate that implementing the Bayesian approach is usually quite feasible for the analyst. Next, we describe the closely related maximum likelihood and multiple imputation approaches and explain why we believe the Bayesian approach to generally be preferable. We then empirically compare the frequentist properties of regression calibration and the Bayesian approach through simulation studies. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach to handle both measurement error and missing data is then illustrated through an analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Bayesian approach to non-Gaussian field statistics for diffusive broadband terahertz pulses.

PubMed

Pearce, Jeremy; Jian, Zhongping; Mittleman, Daniel M

2005-11-01

We develop a closed-form expression for the probability distribution function for the field components of a diffusive broadband wave propagating through a random medium. We consider each spectral component to provide an individual observation of a random variable, the configurationally averaged spectral intensity. Since the intensity determines the variance of the field distribution at each frequency, this random variable serves as the Bayesian prior that determines the form of the non-Gaussian field statistics. This model agrees well with experimental results.

The multicategory case of the sequential Bayesian pixel selection and estimation procedure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pore, M. D.; Dennis, T. B. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

A Bayesian technique for stratified proportion estimation and a sampling based on minimizing the mean squared error of this estimator were developed and tested on LANDSAT multispectral scanner data using the beta density function to model the prior distribution in the two-class case. An extention of this procedure to the k-class case is considered. A generalization of the beta function is shown to be a density function for the general case which allows the procedure to be extended.

Z-Pinch fusion-based nuclear propulsion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miernik, J.; Statham, G.; Fabisinski, L.; Maples, C. D.; Adams, R.; Polsgrove, T.; Fincher, S.; Cassibry, J.; Cortez, R.; Turner, M.; Percy, T.

2013-02-01

Fusion-based nuclear propulsion has the potential to enable fast interplanetary transportation. Due to the great distances between the planets of our solar system and the harmful radiation environment of interplanetary space, high specific impulse (Isp) propulsion in vehicles with high payload mass fractions must be developed to provide practical and safe vehicles for human space flight missions. The Z-Pinch dense plasma focus method is a Magneto-Inertial Fusion (MIF) approach that may potentially lead to a small, low cost fusion reactor/engine assembly [1]. Recent advancements in experimental and theoretical understanding of this concept suggest favorable scaling of fusion power output yield [2]. The magnetic field resulting from the large current compresses the plasma to fusion conditions, and this process can be pulsed over short timescales (10-6 s). This type of plasma formation is widely used in the field of Nuclear Weapons Effects testing in the defense industry, as well as in fusion energy research. A Z-Pinch propulsion concept was designed for a vehicle based on a previous fusion vehicle study called "Human Outer Planet Exploration" (HOPE), which used Magnetized Target Fusion (MTF) [3] propulsion. The reference mission is the transport of crew and cargo to Mars and back, with a reusable vehicle. The analysis of the Z-Pinch MIF propulsion system concludes that a 40-fold increase of Isp over chemical propulsion is predicted. An Isp of 19,436 s and thrust of 3812 N s/pulse, along with nearly doubling the predicted payload mass fraction, warrants further development of enabling technologies.

The Physics of Advanced High-Gain Targets for Inertial Fusion Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, L. John

2010-11-01

In ca. 2011-2012, the National Ignition Facility is poised to demonstrate fusion ignition and gain in the laboratory for the first time. This key milestone in the development of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) can be expected to engender interest in the development of inertial fusion energy (IFE) and expanded efforts on a number of advanced targets that may achieve high fusion energy gain at lower driver energies. In this tutorial talk, we will discuss the physics underlying ICF ignition and thermonuclear burn, examine the requirements for high gain, and outline candidate R&D programs that will be required to assess the performance of these target concepts under various driver systems including lasers, heavy-ions and pulsed power. Such target concepts include those operating by fast ignition, shock ignition, impact ignition, dual-density, magnetically-insulated, one- and two-sided drive, etc., some of which may have potential to burn advanced, non-DT fusion fuels. We will then delineate the role of such targets in their application to the production of high average fusion power. Here, systems studies of IFE economics suggest that we should strive for target fusion gains of around 100 at drive energies of 1MJ, together with corresponding rep-rates of up to 10Hz and driver electrical efficiencies around 15%. In future years, there may be exciting opportunities to study such ``innovative confinement concepts'' with prospects of fielding them on facilities such as NIF to obtain high fusion energy gains on a single shot basis.

Motor mechanisms of vertical fusion in individuals with superior oblique paresis.

PubMed

Mudgil, Ananth V; Walker, Mark; Steffen, Heimo; Guyton, David L; Zee, David S

2002-06-01

We wanted to determine the mechanisms of motor vertical fusion in patients with superior oblique paresis and to correlate these mechanisms with surgical outcomes. Ten patients with superior oblique paresis underwent 3-axis, bilateral, scleral search coil eye movement recordings. Eye movements associated with fusion were analyzed. Six patients had decompensated congenital superior oblique paresis and 4 had acquired superior oblique paresis. All patients with acquired superior oblique paresis relied predominantly on the vertical rectus muscles for motor fusion. Patients with congenital superior oblique paresis were less uniform in their mechanisms for motor fusion: 2 patients used predominantly the oblique muscles, 2 patients used predominantly the vertical recti, and 2 patients used predominantly the superior oblique in the hyperdeviated eye and the superior rectus in the hypodeviated eye. The last 2 patients developed the largest changes in torsional eye alignment relative to changes in vertical eye alignment and were the only patients to develop symptomatic surgical overcorrections. There are 3 different mechanisms for vertical fusion in individuals with superior oblique paresis, with the predominant mechanism being the vertical recti. A subset of patients with superior oblique paresis uses predominantly the superior oblique muscle in the hyperdeviated paretic eye and the superior rectus muscle in the fellow eye for fusion. This results in intorsion of both eyes, causing a large change in torsional alignment. The consequent cyclodisparity, in addition to the existing vertical deviation, may make fusion difficult. The differing patterns of vertical fusional vergence may have implications for surgical treatment.

Gene Fusion Markup Language: a prototype for exchanging gene fusion data.

PubMed

Kalyana-Sundaram, Shanker; Shanmugam, Achiraman; Chinnaiyan, Arul M

2012-10-16

An avalanche of next generation sequencing (NGS) studies has generated an unprecedented amount of genomic structural variation data. These studies have also identified many novel gene fusion candidates with more detailed resolution than previously achieved. However, in the excitement and necessity of publishing the observations from this recently developed cutting-edge technology, no community standardization approach has arisen to organize and represent the data with the essential attributes in an interchangeable manner. As transcriptome studies have been widely used for gene fusion discoveries, the current non-standard mode of data representation could potentially impede data accessibility, critical analyses, and further discoveries in the near future. Here we propose a prototype, Gene Fusion Markup Language (GFML) as an initiative to provide a standard format for organizing and representing the significant features of gene fusion data. GFML will offer the advantage of representing the data in a machine-readable format to enable data exchange, automated analysis interpretation, and independent verification. As this database-independent exchange initiative evolves it will further facilitate the formation of related databases, repositories, and analysis tools. The GFML prototype is made available at http://code.google.com/p/gfml-prototype/. The Gene Fusion Markup Language (GFML) presented here could facilitate the development of a standard format for organizing, integrating and representing the significant features of gene fusion data in an inter-operable and query-able fashion that will enable biologically intuitive access to gene fusion findings and expedite functional characterization. A similar model is envisaged for other NGS data analyses.

Engineered three-dimensional multicellular culture model to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Tissue fusion during early mammalian development requires crosstalk between multiple cell types. For example, paracrine signaling between palatal epithelial cells and palatal mesenchyme mediates the fusion of opposing palatal shelves during embryonic development. Fusion events in developmental processes including heart development, neural tube closure, and palatal fusion are dependent on epithelial-mesenchymal interactions (EMIs) and specific signaling pathways that have been elucidated largely using gene knockout mouse models. A broad analysis of literature using ToxRefDB identified 63 ToxCast chemicals associated with cleft palate in animal models. However, the influence of these and other putative teratogens on human palatal fusion has not been examined in depth due to the lack of in vitro models incorporating EMIs between human cell types. We sought to engineer the stratified mesenchymal and epithelial structure of the developing palate in vitro using spheroid culture of human Wharton’s Jelly mesenchymal stem cells (hMSC). hMSC spheroids exhibited uniform size over time (175 ± 21 µm mean diameter) that was proportional to starting cell density. Further, hMSCs in spheroid culture exhibited increased alkaline phosphatase activity and increased expression of bglap and runx2 after 7 days of culture in osteo-induction medium, which suggests that spheroid culture together with osteo-induction medium supports osteogenic differentiation. We developed a novel pro

The first IEC fusion industrial neutron generator and developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sved, John

1999-06-01

Inertial Electrostatic Confinement fusion grade plasma containment has been sporadically researched since the early 1960's. In the 1990's the work of G. H. Miley and his team at the University of Illinios, Fusion Studies Laboratory, Champaign-Urbana has stimulated a collaboration with industry. The development and test program for the first industrial IEC neutron generator has progressed to the point where an endurance test is under way to demonstrate at least 10,000 hours of operational life of the sealed chamber device without servicing. The market entry goals of steady 107 D-D n/s CW output with an air-cooled system have been achieved. DASA has invested in the development of the industrial product and the continuing basic research at the UI-FSL. The complete DASA FusionStar IEC-PS1 point source neutron generator set is described with emphasis on the interfaces to user NAA systems. The next product developments are pulsed neutron operations and higher fusion reaction rates of up to 1010 by means of affordable add-ons to the basic IEC-PS system. The production engineering experience gained will next be applied to a more challenging line source variant of the IEC. Beyond neutron and proton sources, several other IEC applications are being developed.

Two heretical thoughts on fusion and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manheimer, Wallace

2016-10-01

This presents and explores 2 heretical thoughts regarding controlled fusion and climate. First, the only way that fusion can contribute to midcentury power is by switching its goal from pure fusion, to fusion breeding. Fusion breeding makes many fewer demands on the fusion device than does pure fusion. Fusion breeding could lead to a sustainable, carbon free, environmentally and economically viable, midcentury infrastructure, with little or no proliferation risk, which could provide terawatts of power for the world. The second involves climate. We are all inundated by media warnings, not only of warming from CO2 in the atmosphere, but all sorts of other environmental disasters. For instance there will be more intense storms, rising sea levels, wild fires, retreating glaciers, droughts, loss of agricultural productivity... These assertions are very easy to check out. Such a search shows that we are nowhere near any sort of environmental crisis. The timing could be serendipitous; the time necessary to develop fusion breeding could well match up to the time when it is needed so as to avoid harm to the earth's climate and/or depletion of finite energy resources.

Magnetized Target Fusion in Advanced Propulsion Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cylar, Rashad

2003-01-01

The Magnetized Target Fusion (MTF) Propulsion lab at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama has a program in place that has adopted to attempt to create a faster, lower cost and more reliable deep space transportation system. In this deep space travel the physics and development of high velocity plasma jets must be understood. The MTF Propulsion lab is also in attempt to open up the solar system for human exploration and commercial use. Fusion, as compared to fission, is just the opposite. Fusion involves the light atomic nuclei combination to produce denser nuclei. In the process, the energy is created by destroying the mass according to the distinguished equation: E = mc2 . Fusion energy development is being pursued worldwide as a very sustainable form of energy that is environmentally friendly. For the purposes of space exploration fusion reactions considered include the isotopes of hydrogen-deuterium (D2) and tritium (T3). Nuclei have an electrostatic repulsion between them and in order for the nuclei to fuse this repulsion must be overcome. One technique to bypass repulsion is to heat the nuclei to very high temperatures. The temperatures vary according to the type of reactions. For D-D reactions, one billion degrees Celsius is required, and for D-T reactions, one hundred million degrees is sufficient. There has to be energy input for useful output to be obtained form the fusion To make fusion propulsion practical, the mass, the volume, and the cost of the equipment to produce the reactions (generally called the reactor) need to be reduced by an order of magnitude or two from the state-of-the-art fusion machines. Innovations in fusion schemes are therefore required, especially for obtaining thrust for propulsive applications. Magnetized target fusion (MTF) is one of the innovative fusion concepts that have emerged over the last several years. MSFC is working with Los Alamos National Laboratory and other research groups in studying the underlying principles involved in MTF. Magnetized Target Fusion is an attempt to combine MCF (magnetic confinement fusion) for energy confinement and ICF (inertial confinement fusion) for efficient compression heating and wall free containment of the fusing plasma. It also seeks to combine the best features to these two main commonplace approaches to fusion.

Convergence and Extrusion Are Required for Normal Fusion of the Mammalian Secondary Palate

PubMed Central

Kim, Seungil; Lewis, Ace E.; Singh, Vivek; Ma, Xuefei; Adelstein, Robert; Bush, Jeffrey O.

2015-01-01

The fusion of two distinct prominences into one continuous structure is common during development and typically requires integration of two epithelia and subsequent removal of that intervening epithelium. Using confocal live imaging, we directly observed the cellular processes underlying tissue fusion, using the secondary palatal shelves as a model. We find that convergence of a multi-layered epithelium into a single-layer epithelium is an essential early step, driven by cell intercalation, and is concurrent to orthogonal cell displacement and epithelial cell extrusion. Functional studies in mice indicate that this process requires an actomyosin contractility pathway involving Rho kinase (ROCK) and myosin light chain kinase (MLCK), culminating in the activation of non-muscle myosin IIA (NMIIA). Together, these data indicate that actomyosin contractility drives cell intercalation and cell extrusion during palate fusion and suggest a general mechanism for tissue fusion in development. PMID:25848986

Molecular mechanism of respiratory syncytial virus fusion inhibitors

PubMed Central

Battles, Michael B; Langedijk, Johannes P; Furmanova-Hollenstein, Polina; Chaiwatpongsakorn, Supranee; Costello, Heather M; Kwanten, Leen; Vranckx, Luc; Vink, Paul; Jaensch, Steffen; Jonckers, Tim H M; Koul, Anil; Arnoult, Eric; Peeples, Mark E; Roymans, Dirk; McLellan, Jason S

2016-01-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of pneumonia and bronchiolitis in young children and the elderly. Therapeutic small molecules have been developed that bind the RSV F glycoprotein and inhibit membrane fusion, yet their binding sites and molecular mechanisms of action remain largely unknown. Here we show that these inhibitors bind to a three-fold-symmetric pocket within the central cavity of the metastable prefusion conformation of RSV F. Inhibitor binding stabilizes this conformation by tethering two regions that must undergo a structural rearrangement to facilitate membrane fusion. Inhibitor-escape mutations occur in residues that directly contact the inhibitors or are involved in the conformational rearrangements required to accommodate inhibitor binding. Resistant viruses do not propagate as well as wild-type RSV in vitro, indicating a fitness cost for inhibitor escape. Collectively, these findings provide new insight into class I viral fusion proteins and should facilitate development of optimal RSV fusion inhibitors. PMID:26641933

Overview of the present progress and activities on the CFETR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Yuanxi; Li, Jiangang; Liu, Yong; Wang, Xiaolin; Chan, Vincent; Chen, Changan; Duan, Xuru; Fu, Peng; Gao, Xiang; Feng, Kaiming; Liu, Songlin; Song, Yuntao; Weng, Peide; Wan, Baonian; Wan, Farong; Wang, Heyi; Wu, Songtao; Ye, Minyou; Yang, Qingwei; Zheng, Guoyao; Zhuang, Ge; Li, Qiang; CFETR Team

2017-10-01

The China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) is the next device in the roadmap for the realization of fusion energy in China, which aims to bridge the gaps between the fusion experimental reactor ITER and the demonstration reactor (DEMO). CFETR will be operated in two phases. Steady-state operation and self-sufficiency will be the two key issues for Phase I with a modest fusion power of up to 200 MW. Phase II aims for DEMO validation with a fusion power over 1 GW. Advanced H-mode physics, high magnetic fields up to 7 T, high frequency electron cyclotron resonance heating and lower hybrid current drive together with off-axis negative-ion neutral beam injection will be developed for achieving steady-state advanced operation. The recent detailed design, research and development (R&D) activities including integrated modeling of operation scenarios, high field magnet, material, tritium plant, remote handling and future plans are introduced in this paper.

NASA Mars rover: a testbed for evaluating applications of covariance intersection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uhlmann, Jeffrey K.; Julier, Simon J.; Kamgar-Parsi, Behzad; Lanzagorta, Marco O.; Shyu, Haw-Jye S.

1999-07-01

The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has spearheaded the development and application of Covariance Intersection (CI) for a variety of decentralized data fusion problems. Such problems include distributed control, onboard sensor fusion, and dynamic map building and localization. In this paper we describe NRL's development of a CI-based navigation system for the NASA Mars rover that stresses almost all aspects of decentralized data fusion. We also describe how this project relates to NRL's augmented reality, advanced visualization, and REBOT projects.

Status of DEMO-FNS development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuteev, B. V.; Shpanskiy, Yu. S.; DEMO-FNS Team

2017-07-01

Fusion-fission hybrid facility based on superconducting tokamak DEMO-FNS is developed in Russia for integrated commissioning of steady-state and nuclear fusion technologies at the power level up to 40 MW for fusion and 400 MW for fission reactions. The project status corresponds to the transition from a conceptual design to an engineering one. This facility is considered, in RF, as the main source of technological and nuclear science information, which should complement the ITER research results in the fields of burning plasma physics and control.

SNAREs support atlastin-mediated homotypic ER fusion in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

PubMed Central

Lee, Miriam; Ko, Young-Joon; Moon, Yeojin; Han, Minsoo; Kim, Hyung-Wook; Lee, Sung Haeng; Kang, KyeongJin

2015-01-01

Dynamin-like GTPases of the atlastin family are thought to mediate homotypic endoplasmic reticulum (ER) membrane fusion; however, the underlying mechanism remains largely unclear. Here, we developed a simple and quantitative in vitro assay using isolated yeast microsomes for measuring yeast atlastin Sey1p-dependent ER fusion. Using this assay, we found that the ER SNAREs Sec22p and Sec20p were required for Sey1p-mediated ER fusion. Consistently, ER fusion was significantly reduced by inhibition of Sec18p and Sec17p, which regulate SNARE-mediated membrane fusion. The involvement of SNAREs in Sey1p-dependent ER fusion was further supported by the physical interaction of Sey1p with Sec22p and Ufe1p, another ER SNARE. Furthermore, our estimation of the concentration of Sey1p on isolated microsomes, together with the lack of fusion between Sey1p proteoliposomes even with a 25-fold excess of the physiological concentration of Sey1p, suggests that Sey1p requires additional factors to support ER fusion in vivo. Collectively, our data strongly suggest that SNARE-mediated membrane fusion is involved in atlastin-initiated homotypic ER fusion. PMID:26216899

Predicting Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Clades Using Knowledge-Based Bayesian Networks

PubMed Central

Bennett, Kristin P.

2014-01-01

We develop a novel approach for incorporating expert rules into Bayesian networks for classification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) clades. The proposed knowledge-based Bayesian network (KBBN) treats sets of expert rules as prior distributions on the classes. Unlike prior knowledge-based support vector machine approaches which require rules expressed as polyhedral sets, KBBN directly incorporates the rules without any modification. KBBN uses data to refine rule-based classifiers when the rule set is incomplete or ambiguous. We develop a predictive KBBN model for 69 MTBC clades found in the SITVIT international collection. We validate the approach using two testbeds that model knowledge of the MTBC obtained from two different experts and large DNA fingerprint databases to predict MTBC genetic clades and sublineages. These models represent strains of MTBC using high-throughput biomarkers called spacer oligonucleotide types (spoligotypes), since these are routinely gathered from MTBC isolates of tuberculosis (TB) patients. Results show that incorporating rules into problems can drastically increase classification accuracy if data alone are insufficient. The SITVIT KBBN is publicly available for use on the World Wide Web. PMID:24864238

Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data

PubMed Central

ZHU, HONGTU; IBRAHIM, JOSEPH G.; TANG, NIANSHENG

2013-01-01

Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures. PMID:24753718