Towards a paradigm shift in the modeling of soil organic carbon decomposition for earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yujie

Soils are the largest terrestrial carbon pools and contain approximately 2200 Pg of carbon. Thus, the dynamics of soil carbon plays an important role in the global carbon cycle and climate system. Earth System Models are used to project future interactions between terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate. However, these models often predict a wide range of soil carbon responses and their formulations have lagged behind recent soil science advances, omitting key biogeochemical mechanisms. In contrast, recent mechanistically-based biogeochemical models that explicitly account for microbial biomass pools and enzyme kinetics that catalyze soil carbon decomposition produce notably different results and provide a closer match to recent observations. However, a systematic evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the microbial models and how they differ from empirical, first-order formulations in soil decomposition models for soil organic carbon is still needed. This dissertation consists of a series of model sensitivity and uncertainty analyses and identifies dominant decomposition processes in determining soil organic carbon dynamics. Poorly constrained processes or parameters that require more experimental data integration are also identified. This dissertation also demonstrates the critical role of microbial life-history traits (e.g. microbial dormancy) in the modeling of microbial activity in soil organic matter decomposition models. Finally, this study surveys and synthesizes a number of recently published microbial models and provides suggestions for future microbial model developments.

Regional scale patterns of fine root lifespan and turnover under current and future climate

Treesearch

M. Luke McCormack; David M. Eissenstat; Anantha M. Prasad; Erica A. Smithwick

2013-01-01

Fine root dynamics control a dominant flux of carbon from plants and into soils and mediate potential uptake and cycling of nutrients and water in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding of these patterns is needed to accurately describe critical processes like productivity and carbon storage from ecosystem to global scales. However, limited observations of root dynamics...

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

PubMed Central

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils. PMID:27808169

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

PubMed

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dymond, Caren C.; Beukema, Sarah; Nitschke, Craig R.; Coates, K. David; Scheller, Robert M.

2016-03-01

Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper-Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

Modelling past, present and future peatland carbon accumulation across the pan-Arctic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhary, Nitin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin

2017-09-01

Most northern peatlands developed during the Holocene, sequestering large amounts of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. However, recent syntheses have highlighted the gaps in our understanding of peatland carbon accumulation. Assessments of the long-term carbon accumulation rate and possible warming-driven changes in these accumulation rates can therefore benefit from process-based modelling studies. We employed an individual-based dynamic global ecosystem model with dynamic peatland and permafrost functionalities and patch-based vegetation dynamics to quantify long-term carbon accumulation rates and to assess the effects of historical and projected climate change on peatland carbon balances across the pan-Arctic region. Our results are broadly consistent with published regional and global carbon accumulation estimates. A majority of modelled peatland sites in Scandinavia, Europe, Russia and central and eastern Canada change from carbon sinks through the Holocene to potential carbon sources in the coming century. In contrast, the carbon sink capacity of modelled sites in Siberia, far eastern Russia, Alaska and western and northern Canada was predicted to increase in the coming century. The greatest changes were evident in eastern Siberia, north-western Canada and in Alaska, where peat production hampered by permafrost and low productivity due the cold climate in these regions in the past was simulated to increase greatly due to warming, a wetter climate and higher CO2 levels by the year 2100. In contrast, our model predicts that sites that are expected to experience reduced precipitation rates and are currently permafrost free will lose more carbon in the future.

Sensitivity of climate mitigation strategies to natural disturbances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick LB; Hurtt, George; Thomson, Allison M.

2013-02-19

The present and future concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on both anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of carbon. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on a progressive transition to carbon12 efficient technologies to reduce industrial emissions, substantially supported by policies to maintain or enhance the terrestrial carbon stock in forests and other ecosystems. This strategy may be challenged if terrestrial sequestration capacity is affected by future climate feedbacks, but how and to what extent is little understood. Here, we show that climate mitigation strategies are highly sensitive to future natural disturbance rates (e.g. fires, hurricanes, droughts), because ofmore » potential effect of disturbances on the terrestrial carbon balance. Generally, altered disturbance rates affect the pace of societal and technological transitions required to achieve the mitigation target, with substantial consequences on the energy sector and on the global economy. Understanding the future dynamics and consequences of natural disturbances on terrestrial carbon balance is thus essential for developing robust climate mitigation strategies and policies« less

Progress and Future Directions in North American Carbon Cycle Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalak, Anna; Huntzinger, Deborah; Shrestha, Gyami

2013-05-01

The North American Carbon Program (NACP) convened its fourth biennial "All Investigators" meeting (AIM4, http://www.nacarbon.org/meeting_2013) to review progress in understanding the dynamics of the carbon cycle of North America and adjacent oceans and to chart a course for a more integrative and holistic approach to future research. The meeting was structured around the six decadal goals outlined in the new "A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan" (Michalak et al., University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 2011, available at http://www.carboncyclescience.gov) and focused on (1) diagnosis of the atmospheric carbon cycle, (2) drivers of anthropogenic emissions, (3) vulnerability of carbon stocks to change, (4) ecosystem impacts of change, (5) carbon management, and (6) decision support.

Assessing spatiotemporal changes in forest carbon turnover times in observational data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, K.; Smith, W. K.; Trugman, A. T.; van Mantgem, P.; Peng, C.; Condit, R.; Anderegg, W.

2017-12-01

Forests influence global carbon and water cycles, biophysical land-atmosphere feedbacks, and atmospheric composition. The capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 in a changing climate depends not only on the response of carbon uptake (i.e., gross primary productivity) but also on the simultaneous change in carbon residence time. However, changes in carbon residence with climate change are uncertain, impacting the accuracy of predictions of future terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics. Here, we use long-term forest inventory data representative of tropical, temperate, and boreal forests; satellite-based estimates of net primary productivity and vegetation carbon stock; and six models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to investigate spatiotemporal trends in carbon residence time and its relation to climate. Forest inventory and satellite-based estimates of carbon residence time show a pervasive decreasing trend across global forests. In contrast, the CMIP5 models diverge in predicting historical and future trends in carbon residence time. Divergence across CMIP5 models indicate carbon turnover times are not well constrained by observations, which likely contributes to large variability in future carbon cycle projections.

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

Future forest aboveground carbon dynamics in the central United States: the importance of forest demographic processes

Treesearch

Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Wen J. Wang; Jacob S. Fraser; Stephen R. Shifley; Brice B. Hanberry; William D. Dijak

2017-01-01

The Central Hardwood Forest (CHF) in the United States is currently a major carbon sink, there are uncertainties in how long the current carbon sink will persist and if the CHF will eventually become a carbon source. We used a multi-model ensemble to investigate aboveground carbon density of the CHF from 2010 to 2300 under current climate. Simulations were done using...

Current and future patterns of fire-induced forest degradation in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Faria, Bruno L.; Brando, Paulo M.; Macedo, Marcia N.; Panday, Prajjwal K.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Coe, Michael T.

2017-09-01

Amazon droughts directly increase forest flammability by reducing forest understory air and fuel moisture. Droughts also increase forest flammability indirectly by decreasing soil moisture, triggering leaf shedding, branch loss, and tree mortality—all of which contribute to increased fuel loads. These direct and indirect effects can cause widespread forest fires that reduce forest carbon stocks in the Amazon, with potentially important consequences for the global carbon cycle. These processes are expected to become more widespread, common, and intense as global climate changes, yet the mechanisms linking droughts, wildfires, and associated changes in carbon stocks remain poorly understood. Here, we expanded the capabilities of a dynamic forest carbon model to better represent (1) drought effects on carbon and fuel dynamics and (2) understory fire behavior and severity. We used the refined model to quantify changes in Pan-Amazon live carbon stocks as a function of the maximum climatological water deficit (MCWD) and fire intensity, under both historical and future climate conditions. We found that the 2005 and 2010 droughts increased potential fire intensity by 226 kW m-1 and 494 kW m-1, respectively. These increases were due primarily to increased understory dryness (109 kW m-1 in 2005; 124 kW m-1 in 2010) and altered forest structure (117 kW m-1 in 2005; 370 kW m-1 in 2010) effects. Combined, these historic droughts drove total simulated reductions in live carbon stocks of 0.016 (2005) and 0.027 (2010) PgC across the Amazon Basin. Projected increases in future fire intensity increased simulated carbon losses by up to 90% per unit area burned, compared with modern climate. Increased air temperature was the primary driver of changes in simulated future fire intensity, while reduced precipitation was secondary, particularly in the eastern portion of the Basin. Our results show that fire-drought interactions strongly affect live carbon stocks and that future climate change, combined with the synergistic effects of drought on forest flammability, may strongly influence the stability of tropical forests in the future.

Terahertz science and technology of carbon nanomaterials.

PubMed

Hartmann, R R; Kono, J; Portnoi, M E

2014-08-15

The diverse applications of terahertz (THz) radiation and its importance to fundamental science makes finding ways to generate, manipulate and detect THz radiation one of the key areas of modern applied physics. One approach is to utilize carbon nanomaterials, in particular, single-wall carbon nanotubes and graphene. Their novel optical and electronic properties offer much promise to the field of THz science and technology. This article describes the past, current, and future of THz science and technology of carbon nanotubes and graphene. We will review fundamental studies such as THz dynamic conductivity, THz nonlinearities and ultrafast carrier dynamics as well as THz applications such as THz sources, detectors, modulators, antennas and polarizers.

Effects of high CO2 levels on dynamic photosynthesis: carbon gain, mechanisms, and environmental interactions.

PubMed

Tomimatsu, Hajime; Tang, Yanhong

2016-05-01

Understanding the photosynthetic responses of terrestrial plants to environments with high levels of CO2 is essential to address the ecological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2. Most photosynthetic models used for global carbon issues are based on steady-state photosynthesis, whereby photosynthesis is measured under constant environmental conditions; however, terrestrial plant photosynthesis under natural conditions is highly dynamic, and photosynthetic rates change in response to rapid changes in environmental factors. To predict future contributions of photosynthesis to the global carbon cycle, it is necessary to understand the dynamic nature of photosynthesis in relation to high CO2 levels. In this review, we summarize the current body of knowledge on the photosynthetic response to changes in light intensity under experimentally elevated CO2 conditions. We found that short-term exposure to high CO2 enhances photosynthetic rate, reduces photosynthetic induction time, and reduces post-illumination CO2 burst, resulting in increased leaf carbon gain during dynamic photosynthesis. However, long-term exposure to high CO2 during plant growth has varying effects on dynamic photosynthesis. High levels of CO2 increase the carbon gain in photosynthetic induction in some species, but have no significant effects in other species. Some studies have shown that high CO2 levels reduce the biochemical limitation on RuBP regeneration and Rubisco activation during photosynthetic induction, whereas the effects of high levels of CO2 on stomatal conductance differ among species. Few studies have examined the influence of environmental factors on effects of high levels of CO2 on dynamic photosynthesis. We identified several knowledge gaps that should be addressed to aid future predictions of photosynthesis in high-CO2 environments.

Modeling Carbon Exchange

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, Piers

2012-01-01

Model results will be reviewed to assess different methods for bounding the terrestrial role in the global carbon cycle. It is proposed that a series of climate model runs could be scoped that would tighten the limits on the "missing sink" of terrestrial carbon and could also direct future satellite image analyses to search for its geographical location and understand its seasonal dynamics.

Project Summary (2012-2015) – Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinkle, Ross; Benscoter, Brian; Comas, Xavier

2015-04-07

Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change The objectives of this project are to: 1) quantify above- and below-ground carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems along a seasonal hydrologic gradient in the headwaters region of the Greater Everglades watershed; 2) develop budgets of ecosystem gaseous carbon exchange (carbon dioxide and methane) across the seasonal hydrologic gradient; 3) assess the impact of climate drivers on ecosystem carbon exchange in the Greater Everglades headwater region; and 4) integrate research findings with climate-driven terrestrial ecosystem carbon models to examine the potential influence of projected future climate change on regionalmore » carbon cycling. Note: this project receives a one-year extension past the original performance period - David Sumner (USGS) is not included in this extension.« less

Radiocarbon constraints imply reduced carbon uptake by soils during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Yujie; Trumbore, Susan E.; Torn, Margaret S.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Vaughn, Lydia J.S.; Allison, Steven D.; Randerson, J.T.

2016-01-01

Soil is the largest terrestrial carbon reservoir and may influence the sign and magnitude of carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Many Earth system models (ESMs) estimate a significant soil carbon sink by 2100, yet the underlying carbon dynamics determining this response have not been systematically tested against observations. We used 14C data from 157 globally distributed soil profiles sampled to 1 m depth to show that ESMs underestimated the mean age of soil carbon by more than six-fold (430±50 years vs. 3100±1800 years). Consequently, ESMs overestimated the carbon sequestration potential of soils by nearly two-fold (40±27%). These biases suggest that ESMs must better represent carbon stabilization processes and the turnover time of slow and passive reservoirs when simulating future atmospheric CO2 dynamics.

Uncertainty in the fate of soil organic carbon: A comparison of three conceptually different soil decomposition models

USGS Publications Warehouse

He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; McGuire, A. David; Zhu, Qing; Liu, Yaling; Teskey, Robert O.

2014-01-01

Conventional Q10 soil organic matter decomposition models and more complex microbial models are available for making projections of future soil carbon dynamics. However, it is unclear (1) how well the conceptually different approaches can simulate observed decomposition and (2) to what extent the trajectories of long-term simulations differ when using the different approaches. In this study, we compared three structurally different soil carbon (C) decomposition models (one Q10 and two microbial models of different complexity), each with a one- and two-horizon version. The models were calibrated and validated using 4 years of measurements of heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux from trenched plots in a Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantation. All models reproduced the observed heterotrophic component of soil CO2 efflux, but the trajectories of soil carbon dynamics differed substantially in 100 year simulations with and without warming and increased litterfall input, with microbial models that produced better agreement with observed changes in soil organic C in long-term warming experiments. Our results also suggest that both constant and varying carbon use efficiency are plausible when modeling future decomposition dynamics and that the use of a short-term (e.g., a few years) period of measurement is insufficient to adequately constrain model parameters that represent long-term responses of microbial thermal adaption. These results highlight the need to reframe the representation of decomposition models and to constrain parameters with long-term observations and multiple data streams. We urge caution in interpreting future soil carbon responses derived from existing decomposition models because both conceptual and parameter uncertainties are substantial.

Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olin, S.; Lindeskog, M.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Schurgers, G.; Wårlind, D.; Mishurov, M.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Smith, B.; Arneth, A.

2015-11-01

Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being and provide important ecosystem services such as crop yields, retention of nitrogen and carbon storage. On large (regional to global)-scale levels, assessment of how these different services will vary in space and time, especially in response to cropland management, are scarce. We explore cropland management alternatives and the effect these can have on future C and N pools and fluxes using the land-use-enabled dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). Simulated crop production, cropland carbon storage, carbon sequestration and nitrogen leaching from croplands are evaluated and discussed. Compared to the version of LPJ-GUESS that does not include land-use dynamics, estimates of soil carbon stocks and nitrogen leaching from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems were improved. Our model experiments allow us to investigate trade-offs between these ecosystem services that can be provided from agricultural fields. These trade-offs are evaluated for current land use and climate and further explored for future conditions within the two future climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6 and 8.5. Our results show that the potential for carbon sequestration due to typical cropland management practices such as no-till management and cover crops proposed in previous studies is not realised, globally or over larger climatic regions. Our results highlight important considerations to be made when modelling C-N interactions in agricultural ecosystems under future environmental change and the effects these have on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles.

Climate Change Impacts on Forest Succession and Future Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohan, J. E.; Melillo, J. M.; Clark, J. S.; Schlesinger, W. H.

2012-12-01

Change in ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics with forest succession is a long-studied topic in ecology, and secondary forests currently comprise a significant proportion of the global land base. Although mature forests are generally more important for conserving species and habitats, early successional trees and stands typically have higher rates of productivity, including net ecosystem productivity (NEP), which represents carbon available for sequestration. Secondary forests undergoing successional development are thus major players in the current global carbon cycle, yet how forests will function in the future under warmer conditions with higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations is unknown. Future forest C dynamics will depend, in part, on future species composition. Data from "Forests of the Future" research in a number of global change experiments provide insights into how forests may look in terms of dominant species composition, and thus function, in a future world. Studies at Free-Air Carbon Dioxide (FACE) experiments at Duke Forest and other facilities, plus climate warming experiments such as those at the Harvard Forest, suggest a common underlying principle of vegetation responses to environmental manipulation: Namely, that shade-tolerant woody species associating with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi show greater growth stimulation than ectomycorrhizal-associating (ECM) trees which are more common in temperate and boreal forests (Fig. 1 of relative growth rates standardized by pre-treatment rates). This may be due in part to the role of AM fungi in obtaining soil phosphorus and inorganic forms of nitrogen for plant associates. In combination, these results suggest a shift in future forest composition towards less-productive tree species that generally acquire atmospheric CO2 at lower annual rates, as well as a competitive advantage extended to woody vines such as poison ivy. Due to higher atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, forests of the future may become less-productive than those of today.

Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Coulston, John W; Wear, David N; Vose, James M

2015-01-23

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern United States and attribute changes to land use, management, and disturbance causes. From 2007-2012, forests yielded a net sink of C because of net land use change (+6.48 Tg C yr(-1)) and net biomass accumulation (+75.4 Tg C yr(-1)). Forests disturbed by weather, insect/disease, and fire show dampened yet positive forest C changes (+1.56, +1.4, +5.48 Tg C yr(-1), respectively). Forest cutting caused net decreases in C (-76.7 Tg C yr(-1)) but was offset by forest growth (+143.77 Tg C yr(-1)). Forest growth rates depend on age or stage of development and projected C stock changes indicate a gradual slowing of carbon accumulation with anticipated forest aging (a reduction of 9.5% over the next five years). Additionally, small shifts in land use transitions consistent with economic futures resulted in a 40.6% decrease in C accumulation.

Model structures amplify uncertainty in predicted soil carbon responses to climate change.

PubMed

Shi, Zheng; Crowell, Sean; Luo, Yiqi; Moore, Berrien

2018-06-04

Large model uncertainty in projected future soil carbon (C) dynamics has been well documented. However, our understanding of the sources of this uncertainty is limited. Here we quantify the uncertainties arising from model parameters, structures and their interactions, and how those uncertainties propagate through different models to projections of future soil carbon stocks. Both the vertically resolved model and the microbial explicit model project much greater uncertainties to climate change than the conventional soil C model, with both positive and negative C-climate feedbacks, whereas the conventional model consistently predicts positive soil C-climate feedback. Our findings suggest that diverse model structures are necessary to increase confidence in soil C projection. However, the larger uncertainty in the complex models also suggests that we need to strike a balance between model complexity and the need to include diverse model structures in order to forecast soil C dynamics with high confidence and low uncertainty.

Modeling Pacific Northwest carbon and water cycling using CARAIB Dynamic Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, M.; Kim, J. B.; Still, C. J.; Francois, L. M.; Jiang, Y.

2015-12-01

While uncertainties remain regarding projected temperature and precipitation changes, climate warming is already affecting ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Decrease in ecosystem productivity as well as increase in mortality of some plant species induced by drought and disturbance have been reported. Here, we applied the process-based dynamic vegetation model CARAIB to PNW to simulate the response of water and carbon cycling to current and future climate change projections. The vegetation model has already been successfully applied to Europe to simulate plant physiological response to climate change. We calibrated CARAIB to PNW using global Plant Functional Types. For calibration, the model is driven with the gridded surface meteorological dataset UIdaho MACA METDATA with 1/24-degree (~4-km) resolution at a daily time step for the period 1979-2014. The model ability to reproduce the current spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks and fluxes was evaluated using a variety of available datasets, including eddy covariance and satellite observations. We focused particularly on past severe drought and fire episodes. Then, we simulated future conditions using the UIdaho MACAv2-METDATA dataset, which includes downscaled CMIP5 projections from 28 GCMs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We evaluated the future ecosystem carbon balance resulting from changes in drought frequency as well as in fire risk. We also simulated future productivity and drought-induced mortality of several key PNW tree species.

Recent rates of forest harvest and conversion in North America

Treesearch

Jeffrey G. Masek; Warren B. Cohen; Donald Leckie; Michael A. Wulder; Rodrigo Vargas; Ben de Jong; Sean Healey; Beverly Law; Richard Birdsey; R. A. Houghton; David Mildrexler; Samuel Goward; W. Brad Smith

2011-01-01

Incorporating ecological disturbance into biogeochemical models is critical for estimating current and future carbon stocks and fluxes. In particular, anthropogenic disturbances, such as forest conversion and wood harvest, strongly affect forest carbon dynamics within North America. This paper summarizes recent (2000-2008) rates of extraction, including both conversion...

Importance of soil thermal dynamics on land carbon sequestration in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kicklighter, David; Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry

2015-04-01

Recent modeling studies have suggested that carbon sinks in pan-arctic ecosystems may be weakening partially as a result of warming-induced increases in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and the exposure of previously frozen SOM to decomposition. This weakening of carbon sinks is likely to continue in the future as vast amount of carbon in permafrost soils is vulnerable to thaw. Here, we examine the importance of considering soil thermal dynamics when determining the effects of climate change and land-use change on carbon dynamics in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century. This importance is assessed by comparing results for a "business as usual" scenario between a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that does not consider soil thermal dynamics (TEM 4.4) and a version that does consider these dynamics (TEM 6.0). In this scenario, which is similar to the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the net area covered by food crops and pastures in Northern Eurasia is assumed to remain relatively constant over the 21st century, but the area covered by secondary forests is projected to double as a result of timber harvest and the abandonment of land associated with displacement of agricultural land. Enhanced decomposition from the newly exposed SOM from permafrost thaw also increases nitrogen availability for plant production so that the loss of carbon from the enhanced decomposition is partially compensated by enhanced uptake and storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide in vegetation. Our results indicate that consideration of soil thermal dynamics have a large influence on how simulated terrestrial carbon dynamics in Northern Eurasia respond to changes in climate, atmospheric chemistry (e.g., carbon dioxide fertilization, ozone pollution, nitrogen deposition) and disturbances.

Global estimates of boreal forest carbon stocks and flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Warkentin, Ian G.

2015-05-01

The boreal ecosystem is an important global reservoir of stored carbon and a haven for diverse biological communities. The natural disturbance dynamics there have historically been driven by fire and insects, with human-mediated disturbances increasing faster than in other biomes globally. Previous research on the total boreal carbon stock and predictions of its future flux reveal high uncertainty in regional patterns. We reviewed and standardised this extensive body of quantitative literature to provide the most up-to-date and comprehensive estimates of the global carbon balance in the boreal forest. We also compiled century-scale predictions of the carbon budget flux. Our review and standardisation confirmed high uncertainty in the available data, but there is evidence that the region's total carbon stock has been underestimated. We found a total carbon store of 367.3 to 1715.8 Pg (1015 g), the mid-point of which (1095 Pg) is between 1.3 and 3.8 times larger than any previous mean estimates. Most boreal carbon resides in its soils and peatlands, although estimates are highly uncertain. We found evidence that the region might become a net carbon source following a reduction in carbon uptake rate from at least the 1980s. Given that the boreal potentially constitutes the largest terrestrial carbon source in the world, in one of the most rapidly warming parts of the globe (Walsh, 2014), how we manage these stocks will be influential on future climate dynamics.

Disentangling residence time and temperature sensitivity of microbial decomposition in a global soil carbon model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, J.-F.; Pitman, A. J.; Abramowitz, G.

2014-12-01

Recent studies have identified the first-order representation of microbial decomposition as a major source of uncertainty in simulations and projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. Here, we use a reduced complexity model representative of current state-of-the-art models of soil organic carbon decomposition. We undertake a systematic sensitivity analysis to disentangle the effect of the time-invariant baseline residence time (k) and the sensitivity of microbial decomposition to temperature (Q10) on soil carbon dynamics at regional and global scales. Our simulations produce a range in total soil carbon at equilibrium of ~ 592 to 2745 Pg C, which is similar to the ~ 561 to 2938 Pg C range in pre-industrial soil carbon in models used in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This range depends primarily on the value of k, although the impact of Q10 is not trivial at regional scales. As climate changes through the historical period, and into the future, k is primarily responsible for the magnitude of the response in soil carbon, whereas Q10 determines whether the soil remains a sink, or becomes a source in the future mostly by its effect on mid-latitude carbon balance. If we restrict our simulations to those simulating total soil carbon stocks consistent with observations of current stocks, the projected range in total soil carbon change is reduced by 42% for the historical simulations and 45% for the future projections. However, while this observation-based selection dismisses outliers, it does not increase confidence in the future sign of the soil carbon feedback. We conclude that despite this result, future estimates of soil carbon and how soil carbon responds to climate change should be more constrained by available data sets of carbon stocks.

Representing Northern Peatland Hydrology and Biogeochemistry with ALM Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, X.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Hanson, P. J.; Xu, X.; Mao, J.; Warren, J.; Yuan, F.; Norby, R. J.; Sebestyen, S.; Griffiths, N.; Weston, D. J.; Walker, A.

2017-12-01

Northern peatlands are likely to be important in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks due to their large carbon pool and vulnerability to hydrological change. Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. Firstly, we introduce a new configuration of the land model (ALM) of Accelerated Climate model for Energy (ACME), which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Secondly, we couple our new hydrology treatment with vertically structured soil organic matter pool, and the addition of components from methane biogeochemistry. Thirdly, we introduce a new PFT for mosses and implement the water content dynamics and physiology of mosses. We inform and test our model based on SPRUCE experiment to get the reasonable results for the seasonal dynamics water table depths, water content dynamics and physiology of mosses, and correct soil carbon profiles. Then, we use our new model structure to test the how the water table depth and CH4 emission will respond to elevated CO2 and different warming scenarios.

Disentangling residence time and temperature sensitivity of microbial decomposition in a global soil carbon model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exbrayat, J.-F.; Pitman, A. J.; Abramowitz, G.

2014-03-01

Recent studies have identified the first-order parameterization of microbial decomposition as a major source of uncertainty in simulations and projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. Here, we use a reduced complexity model representative of the current state-of-the-art parameterization of soil organic carbon decomposition. We undertake a systematic sensitivity analysis to disentangle the effect of the time-invariant baseline residence time (k) and the sensitvity of microbial decomposition to temperature (Q10) on soil carbon dynamics at regional and global scales. Our simulations produce a range in total soil carbon at equilibrium of ~ 592 to 2745 Pg C which is similar to the ~ 561 to 2938 Pg C range in pre-industrial soil carbon in models used in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This range depends primarily on the value of k, although the impact of Q10 is not trivial at regional scales. As climate changes through the historical period, and into the future, k is primarily responsible for the magnitude of the response in soil carbon, whereas Q10 determines whether the soil remains a sink, or becomes a source in the future mostly by its effect on mid-latitudes carbon balance. If we restrict our simulations to those simulating total soil carbon stocks consistent with observations of current stocks, the projected range in total soil carbon change is reduced by 42% for the historical simulations and 45% for the future projections. However, while this observation-based selection dismisses outliers it does not increase confidence in the future sign of the soil carbon feedback. We conclude that despite this result, future estimates of soil carbon, and how soil carbon responds to climate change should be constrained by available observational data sets.

Environmental drivers of deadwood dynamics in woodlands and forests

Treesearch

M. Garbarino; R. Marzano; John Shaw; J. N. Long

2015-01-01

Deadwood dynamics play a key role in many forest ecosystems. Understanding the mechanisms involved in the accumulation and depletion of deadwood can enhance our understanding of fundamental processes such as carbon sequestration and disturbance regimes, allowing better predictions of future changes related to alternative management and climate scenarios. A...

Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States

PubMed Central

Coulston, John W.; Wear, David N.; Vose, James M.

2015-01-01

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern United States and attribute changes to land use, management, and disturbance causes. From 2007-2012, forests yielded a net sink of C because of net land use change (+6.48 Tg C yr−1) and net biomass accumulation (+75.4 Tg C yr−1). Forests disturbed by weather, insect/disease, and fire show dampened yet positive forest C changes (+1.56, +1.4, +5.48 Tg C yr−1, respectively). Forest cutting caused net decreases in C (−76.7 Tg C yr−1) but was offset by forest growth (+143.77 Tg C yr−1). Forest growth rates depend on age or stage of development and projected C stock changes indicate a gradual slowing of carbon accumulation with anticipated forest aging (a reduction of 9.5% over the next five years). Additionally, small shifts in land use transitions consistent with economic futures resulted in a 40.6% decrease in C accumulation. PMID:25614123

Deep soil carbon dynamics are driven more by soil type than by climate: a worldwide meta-analysis of radiocarbon profiles.

PubMed

Mathieu, Jordane A; Hatté, Christine; Balesdent, Jérôme; Parent, Éric

2015-11-01

The response of soil carbon dynamics to climate and land-use change will affect both the future climate and the quality of ecosystems. Deep soil carbon (>20 cm) is the primary component of the soil carbon pool, but the dynamics of deep soil carbon remain poorly understood. Therefore, radiocarbon activity (Δ14C), which is a function of the age of carbon, may help to understand the rates of soil carbon biodegradation and stabilization. We analyzed the published 14C contents in 122 profiles of mineral soil that were well distributed in most of the large world biomes, except for the boreal zone. With a multivariate extension of a linear mixed-effects model whose inference was based on the parallel combination of two algorithms, the expectation-maximization (EM) and the Metropolis-Hasting algorithms, we expressed soil Δ14C profiles as a four-parameter function of depth. The four-parameter model produced insightful predictions of soil Δ14C as dependent on depth, soil type, climate, vegetation, land-use and date of sampling (R2=0.68). Further analysis with the model showed that the age of topsoil carbon was primarily affected by climate and cultivation. By contrast, the age of deep soil carbon was affected more by soil taxa than by climate and thus illustrated the strong dependence of soil carbon dynamics on other pedologic traits such as clay content and mineralogy. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying the effect of nighttime interactions between roots and canopy physiology and their control of water and carbon cycling on feedbacks between soil moisture and terrestrial climatology under variable environmental conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Domec, Jean-Christophe; Palmroth, Sari; Oren, Ram

The primary objective of this project is to characterize and quantify how the temporal variability of hydraulic redistribution (HR) and its physiological regulation in unmanaged and complex forests is affecting current water and carbon exchange and predict how future climate scenarios will affect these relationships and potentially feed back to the climate. Specifically, a detailed study of ecosystem water uptake and carbon exchange in relation to root functioning was proposed in order to quantify the mechanisms controlling temporal variability of soil moisture dynamic and HR in three active AmeriFlux sites, and to use published data of two other inactive AmeriFluxmore » sites. Furthermore, data collected by our research group at the Duke Free Air CO2 enrichment (FACE) site was also being utilized to further improve our ability to forecast future environmental impacts of elevated CO2 concentration on soil moisture dynamic and its effect on carbon sequestration and terrestrial climatology. The overarching objective being to forecast, using a soil:plant:atmosphere model coupled with a biosphere:atmosphere model, the impact of root functioning on land surface climatology. By comparing unmanaged sites to plantations, we also proposed to determine the effect of land use change on terrestrial carbon sequestration and climatology through its effect on soil moisture dynamic and HR. Our simulations of HR by roots indicated that in some systems HR is an important mechanism that buffers soil water deficit, affects energy and carbon cycling; thus having significant implications for seasonal climate. HR maintained roots alive and below 70% loss of conductivity and our simulations also showed that the increased vapor pressure deficit at night under future conditions was sufficient to drive significant nighttime transpiration at all sites, which reduced HR. This predicted reduction in HR under future climate conditions played an important regulatory role in land atmosphere interactions by affecting whole ecosystem carbon and water balance. Under future climatic scenarios, HR was reduced thus affecting negatively plant water use and carbon assimilation. The discrepancy between the predicted and actual surface warming and atmospheric water vapor caused by the persistence of evapotranspiration during the dry season, increasing energy transfer in the form of latent heat. Under those simulations, we also evaluated how the hydraulic properties of soil and xylem limited the rate of carbon uptake, and carbon net ecosystem exchange. The multilayered hydraulically driven soil vegetation atmosphere carbon and water transfer model was designed to represent processes common to vascular plants, so that ecosystem atmosphere exchange could be captured by the same processes at different sites. Those models shown to be well suited for investigating the impact of drought on forest ecosystems because of its explicit treatment of water transport to leaves. This modeling work also confirmed that unmanaged, mixed hardwood site are more resilient to climatic variations than an adjacent pine plantation, but that future climatic conditions will reverse this trends.« less

Wind farm and solar park effects on plant–soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-01-01

Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant–soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant–soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. PMID:24132939

Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Humpenöder, Florian; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Stevanović, Miodrag

2017-12-01

Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47-55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34-57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23-78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63-78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection.

Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2018-02-01

Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

Carbon dynamics in trees: feast or famine?

Treesearch

Anna Sala; David R. Woodruff; Fredrick C. Meinzer

2012-01-01

Research on the degree to which carbon (C) availability limits growth in trees, as well as recent trends in climate change and concurrent increases in drought related tree mortality, have led to a renewed focus on the physiological mechanisms associated with tree growth responses to current and future climate. This has led to some dispute over the role of stored...

Modelling Holocene peatland and permafrost dynamics with the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhary, Nitin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin

2016-04-01

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are an important platform to study past, present and future vegetation patterns together with associated biogeochemical cycles and climate feedbacks (e.g. Sitch et al. 2008, Smith et al. 2001). However, very few attempts have been made to simulate peatlands using DGVMs (Kleinen et al. 2012, Tang et al. 2015, Wania et al. 2009a). In the present study, we have improved the peatland dynamics in the state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) in order to understand the long-term evolution of northern peatland ecosystems and to assess the effect of changing climate on peatland carbon balance. We combined a dynamic multi-layer approach (Frolking et al. 2010, Hilbert et al. 2000) with soil freezing-thawing functionality (Ekici et al. 2015, Wania et al. 2009a) in LPJ-GUESS. The new model is named LPJ-GUESS Peatland (LPJ-GUESS-P) (Chaudhary et al. in prep). The model was calibrated and tested at the sub-arctic mire in Stordalen, Sweden, and the model was able to capture the reported long-term vegetation dynamics and peat accumulation patterns in the mire (Kokfelt et al. 2010). For evaluation, the model was run at 13 grid points across a north to south transect in Europe. The modelled peat accumulation values were found to be consistent with the published data for each grid point (Loisel et al. 2014). Finally, a series of additional experiments were carried out to investigate the vulnerability of high-latitude peatlands to climate change. We find that the Stordalen mire will sequester more carbon in the future due to milder and wetter climate conditions, longer growing seasons, and the carbon fertilization effect. References: - Chaudhary et al. (in prep.). Modelling Holocene peatland and permafrost dynamics with the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model - Ekici A, et al. 2015. Site-level model intercomparison of high latitude and high altitude soil thermal dynamics in tundra and barren landscapes. The Cryosphere 9: 1343-1361. - Frolking S, Roulet NT, Tuittila E, Bubier JL, Quillet A, Talbot J, Richard PJH. 2010. A new model of Holocene peatland net primary production, decomposition, water balance, and peat accumulation. Earth Syst. Dynam., 1, 1-21, doi:10.5194/esd-1-1-2010, 2010. - Hilbert DW, Roulet N, Moore T. 2000. Modelling and analysis of peatlands as dynamical systems. Journal of Ecology 88: 230-242. - Kleinen T, Brovkin V, Schuldt RJ. 2012. A dynamic model of wetland extent and peat accumulation: results for the Holocene. Biogeosciences 9: 235-248. - Kokfelt U, Reuss N, Struyf E, Sonesson M, Rundgren M, Skog G, Rosen P, Hammarlund D. 2010. Wetland development, permafrost history and nutrient cycling inferred from late Holocene peat and lake sediment records in subarctic Sweden. Journal of Paleolimnology 44: 327-342. - Loisel J, et al. 2014. A database and synthesis of northern peatland soil properties and Holocene carbon and nitrogen accumulation. Holocene 24: 1028-1042. - Sitch S, et al. 2008. Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 2015-2039. - Smith B, Prentice IC, Sykes MT. 2001. Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Global Ecology and Biogeography 10: 621-637. - Tang J, et al. 2015. Carbon budget estimation of a subarctic catchment using a dynamic ecosystem model at high spatial resolution. Biogeosciences 12: 2791-2808. - Wania R, Ross I, Prentice IC. 2009a. Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 1. Evaluation and sensitivity of physical land surface processes. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23.

Management Impacts on Carbon Dynamics in a Sierra Nevada Mixed Conifer Forest

PubMed Central

Dore, Sabina; Fry, Danny L.; Collins, Brandon M.; Vargas, Rodrigo; York, Robert A.; Stephens, Scott L.

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems can act as sinks of carbon and thus mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. When forests are actively managed, treatments can alter forests carbon dynamics, reducing their sink strength and switching them from sinks to sources of carbon. These effects are generally characterized by fast temporal dynamics. Hence this study monitored for over a decade the impacts of management practices commonly used to reduce fire hazards on the carbon dynamics of mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Soil CO2 efflux, carbon pools (i.e. soil carbon, litter, fine roots, tree biomass), and radial tree growth were compared among un-manipulated controls, prescribed fire, thinning, thinning followed by fire, and two clear-cut harvested sites. Soil CO2 efflux was reduced by both fire and harvesting (ca. 15%). Soil carbon content (upper 15 cm) was not significantly changed by harvest or fire treatments. Fine root biomass was reduced by clear-cut harvest (60–70%) but not by fire, and the litter layer was reduced 80% by clear-cut harvest and 40% by fire. Thinning effects on tree growth and biomass were concentrated in the first year after treatments, whereas fire effects persisted over the seven-year post-treatment period. Over this period, tree radial growth was increased (25%) by thinning and reduced (12%) by fire. After seven years, tree biomass returned to pre-treatment levels in both fire and thinning treatments; however, biomass and productivity decreased 30%-40% compared to controls when thinning was combined with fire. The clear-cut treatment had the strongest impact, reducing ecosystem carbon stocks and delaying the capacity for carbon uptake. We conclude that post-treatment carbon dynamics and ecosystem recovery time varied with intensity and type of treatments. Consequently, management practices can be selected to minimize ecosystem carbon losses while increasing future carbon uptake, resilience to high severity fire, and climate related stresses. PMID:26918460

[Modeling of carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystem: a review].

PubMed

Mao, Liuxi; Sun, Yanling; Yan, Xiaodong

2006-11-01

Terrestrial carbon cycling is one of the important issues in global change research, while carbon cycling modeling has become a necessary method and tool in understanding this cycling. This paper reviewed the research progress in terrestrial carbon cycling, with the focus on the basic framework of simulation modeling, two essential models of carbon cycling, and the classes of terrestrial carbon cycling modeling, and analyzed the present situation of terrestrial carbon cycling modeling. It was pointed out that the future research direction could be based on the biophysical modeling of dynamic vegetation, and this modeling could be an important component in the earth system modeling.

Long residence times of rapidly decomposable soil organic matter: application of a multi-phase, multi-component, and vertically-resolved model (TOUGHREACTv1) to soil carbon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Maggi, F. M.; Kleber, M.; Torn, M. S.; Tang, J. Y.; Dwivedi, D.; Guerry, N.

2014-01-01

Accurate representation of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics in Earth System Models is critical for future climate prediction, yet large uncertainties exist regarding how, and to what extent, the suite of proposed relevant mechanisms should be included. To investigate how various mechanisms interact to influence SOM storage and dynamics, we developed a SOM reaction network integrated in a one-dimensional, multi-phase, and multi-component reactive transport solver. The model includes representations of bacterial and fungal activity, multiple archetypal polymeric and monomeric carbon substrate groups, aqueous chemistry, aqueous advection and diffusion, gaseous diffusion, and adsorption (and protection) and desorption from the soil mineral phase. The model predictions reasonably matched observed depth-resolved SOM and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) stocks in grassland ecosystems as well as lignin content and fungi to aerobic bacteria ratios. We performed a suite of sensitivity analyses under equilibrium and dynamic conditions to examine the role of dynamic sorption, microbial assimilation rates, and carbon inputs. To our knowledge, observations do not exist to fully test such a complicated model structure or to test the hypotheses used to explain observations of substantial storage of very old SOM below the rooting depth. Nevertheless, we demonstrated that a reasonable combination of sorption parameters, microbial biomass and necromass dynamics, and advective transport can match observations without resorting to an arbitrary depth-dependent decline in SOM turnover rates, as is often done. We conclude that, contrary to assertions derived from existing turnover time based model formulations, observed carbon content and δ14C vertical profiles are consistent with a representation of SOM dynamics consisting of (1) carbon compounds without designated intrinsic turnover times, (2) vertical aqueous transport, and (3) dynamic protection on mineral surfaces.

Modelling Holocene peatland dynamics with an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhary, Nitin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin

2017-05-01

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are designed for the study of past, present and future vegetation patterns together with associated biogeochemical cycles and climate feedbacks. However, most DGVMs do not yet have detailed representations of permafrost and non-permafrost peatlands, which are an important store of carbon, particularly at high latitudes. We demonstrate a new implementation of peatland dynamics in a customized Arctic version of the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, simulating the long-term evolution of selected northern peatland ecosystems and assessing the effect of changing climate on peatland carbon balance. Our approach employs a dynamic multi-layer soil with representation of freeze-thaw processes and litter inputs from a dynamically varying mixture of the main peatland plant functional types: mosses, shrubs and graminoids. The model was calibrated and tested for a sub-Arctic mire in Stordalen, Sweden, and validated at a temperate bog site in Mer Bleue, Canada. A regional evaluation of simulated carbon fluxes, hydrology and vegetation dynamics encompassed additional locations spread across Scandinavia. Simulated peat accumulation was found to be generally consistent with published data and the model was able to capture reported long-term vegetation dynamics, water table position and carbon fluxes. A series of sensitivity experiments were carried out to investigate the vulnerability of high-latitude peatlands to climate change. We found that the Stordalen mire may be expected to sequester more carbon in the first half of the 21st century due to milder and wetter climate conditions, a longer growing season, and the CO2 fertilization effect, turning into a carbon source after mid-century because of higher decomposition rates in response to warming soils.

Modeling dynamics of western juniper under climate change in a semiarid ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, R.; Glenn, N. F.; Flores, A. N.

2013-12-01

Modeling future vegetation dynamics in response to climate change and disturbances such as fire relies heavily on model parameterization. Fine-scale field-based measurements can provide the necessary parameters for constraining models at a larger scale. But the time- and labor-intensive nature of field-based data collection leads to sparse sampling and significant spatial uncertainties in retrieved parameters. In this study we quantify the fine-scale carbon dynamics and uncertainty of juniper woodland in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in southern Idaho, which is a proposed critical zone observatory (CZO) site for soil carbon processes. We leverage field-measured vegetation data along with airborne lidar and timeseries Landsat imagery to initialize a state-and-transition model (VDDT) and a process-based fire-model (FlamMap) to examine the vegetation dynamics in response to stochastic fire events and climate change. We utilize recently developed and novel techniques to measure biomass and canopy characteristics of western juniper at the individual tree scale using terrestrial and airborne laser scanning techniques in RCEW. These fine-scale data are upscaled across the watershed for the VDDT and FlamMap models. The results will immediately improve our understanding of fine-scale dynamics and carbon stocks and fluxes of woody vegetation in a semi-arid ecosystem. Moreover, quantification of uncertainty will also provide a basis for generating ensembles of spatially-explicit alternative scenarios to guide future land management decisions in the region.

Optimizing root system architecture in biofuel crops for sustainable energy production and soil carbon sequestration.

PubMed

To, Jennifer Pc; Zhu, Jinming; Benfey, Philip N; Elich, Tedd

2010-09-08

Root system architecture (RSA) describes the dynamic spatial configuration of different types and ages of roots in a plant, which allows adaptation to different environments. Modifications in RSA enhance agronomic traits in crops and have been implicated in soil organic carbon content. Together, these fundamental properties of RSA contribute to the net carbon balance and overall sustainability of biofuels. In this article, we will review recent data supporting carbon sequestration by biofuel crops, highlight current progress in studying RSA, and discuss future opportunities for optimizing RSA for biofuel production and soil carbon sequestration.

Impacts of future radiation management scenarios on terrestrial carbon dynamics simulated with fully coupled NorESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekici, Altug; Tjiputra, Jerry; Grini, Alf; Muri, Helene

2017-04-01

We have simulated 3 different radiation management geoengineering methods (CCT - cirrus cloud thinning; SAI - stratospheric aerosol injection; MSB - marine sky brightening) on top of future RCP8.5 scenario with the fully coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). A globally consistent cooling in both atmosphere and soil is observed with all methods. However, precipitation patterns are dependent on the used method. Globally CCT and MSB methods do not affect the vegetation carbon budget, while SAI leads to a loss compared to RCP8.5 simulations. Spatially the most sensitive region is the tropics. Here, the changes in vegetation carbon content are related to the precipitation changes. Increase in soil carbon is projected in all three methods, the biggest change seen in SAI method. Simulations with CCT method leads to twice as much soil carbon retention in the tropics compared to the MSB method. Our findings show that there are unforeseen regional consequences of such geoengineering methods in the biogeochemical cycles and they should be considered with care in future climate policies.

Wildfire and fuel treatment effects on forest carbon dynamics in the western United States

Treesearch

Joseph C. Restiano; David L. Peterson

2013-01-01

Sequestration of carbon (C) in forests has the potential to mitigate the effects of climate change by offsetting future emissions of greenhouse gases. However, in dry temperate forests, wildfire is a natural disturbance agent with the potential to release large fluxes of C into the atmosphere. Climate-driven increases in wildfire extent and severity arc expected to...

Soil Carbon Residence Time in the Arctic - Potential Drivers of Past and Future Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Fisher, J.; Schwalm, C. R.; Hayes, D. J.; Stofferahn, E.; Hantson, W.; Schaefer, K. M.; Fang, Y.; Michalak, A. M.; Wei, Y.

2017-12-01

Carbon residence time is one of the most important factors controlling carbon cycling in ecosystems. Residence time depends on carbon allocation and conversion among various carbon pools and the rate of organic matter decomposition; all of which rely on environmental conditions, primarily temperature and soil moisture. As a result, residence time is an emergent property of models and a strong determinant of terrestrial carbon storage capacity. However, residence time is poorly constrained in process-based models due, in part, to the lack of data with which to benchmark global-scale models in order to guide model improvements and, ultimately, reduce uncertainty in model projections. Here we focus on improving the understanding of the drivers to observed and simulated carbon residence time in the Arctic-Boreal region (ABR). Carbon-cycling in the ABR represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty in historical and future projections of land-atmosphere carbon dynamics. This uncertainty is depicted in the large spread of terrestrial biospheric model (TBM) estimates of carbon flux and ecosystem carbon pool size in this region. Recent efforts, such as the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), have increased the availability of spatially explicit in-situ and remotely sensed carbon and ecosystem focused data products in the ABR. Together with simulations from Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we use these observations to evaluate the ability of models to capture soil carbon stocks and changes in the ABR. Specifically, we compare simulated versus observed soil carbon residence times in order to evaluate the functional response and sensitivity of modeled soil carbon stocks to changes in key environmental drivers. Understanding how simulated carbon residence time compares with observations and what drives these differences is critical for improving projections of changing carbon dynamics in the ABR and globally.

Impact of fire disturbance on soil thermal and carbon dynamics in Alaskan Tundra and Boreal forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Y.; Rastetter, E.; Shaver, G. R.; Rocha, A. V.

2012-12-01

In Alaska, fire disturbance is a major component influencing the soil water and energy balance in both tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. Fire-caused changes in soil environment further affect both above- and below-ground carbon cycles depending on different fire severities. Understanding the effects of fire disturbance on soil thermal change requires implicit modeling work on the post-fire soil thawing and freezing processes. In this study, we model the soil temperature profiles in multiple burned and non-burned sites using a well-developed soil thermal model which fully couples soil water and heat transport. The subsequent change in carbon dynamics is analyzed based on site level observations and simulations from the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model. With comparison between burned and non-burned sites, we compare and contrast fire effects on soil thermal and carbon dynamics in continuous permafrost (Anaktuvik fire in north slope), discontinuous permafrost (Erickson Creek fire at Hess Creek) and non-permafrost zone (Delta Junction fire in interior Alaska). Then we check the post-fire recovery of soil temperature profiles at sites with different fire severities in both tundra and boreal forest fire areas. We further project the future changes in soil thermal and carbon dynamics using projected climate data from Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning (SNAP). This study provides information to improve the understanding of fire disturbance on soil thermal and carbon dynamics and the consequent response under a warming climate.

Capacity of US Forests to Maintain Existing Carbon Sequestration will be affected by Changes in Forest Disturbances and to a greater extent, the Economic and Societal Influences on Forest Management and Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joyce, L. A.; Running, S. W.; Breshears, D. D.; Dale, V.; Malmsheimer, R. W.; Sampson, N.; Sohngen, B.; Woodall, C. W.

2012-12-01

Increasingly the value of US forest carbon dynamics and carbon sequestration is being recognized in discussions of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Past exploitation of forestlands in the United States for timber, fuelwood, and conversion to agriculture resulted in large swings in forestland area and terrestrial carbon dynamics. The National Climate Assessment explored the implications of current and future stressors, including climate change, to the future of forest carbon dynamics in the United States. While U.S forests and associated harvested wood products sequestered roughly 13 percent of all carbon dioxide emitted in the United States in 2010, the capacity of forests to maintain this amount of carbon sequestration will be affected by the effects of climate change on forest disturbances, tree growth and mortality, changes in species composition, and to a greater extent, the economic and societal influences on forest management and forestland use. Carbon mitigation through forest management includes three strategies: 1) land management to increase forest area (afforestation) and/or avoid deforestation; 2) carbon management in existing forests; and 3) use of wood in place of materials that require more carbon emissions to produce, in place of fossil fuels to produce energy or in wood products for carbon storage. A significant financial incentive facing many private forest owners is the value of their forest lands for conversion to urban or developed uses. In addition, consequences of large scale die-off and wildfire disturbance events from climate change pose major challenges to forestland area and forest management with potential impacts occurring up to regional scales for timber, flooding and erosion risks, other changes in water budgets, and biogeochemical changes including carbon storage. Options for carbon management on existing forests include practices that increase forest growth such as fertilization, irrigation, switch to fast-growing planting stock and shorter rotations, and weed, disease, and insect control, and increasing the interval between harvests or decreasing harvest intensity. Economic drivers will affect future carbon cycle of forests such as shifts in forest age class structure in response to markets, land-use changes such as urbanization, and forest type changes. Future changes in forestland objectives include the potential for bioenergy based on forestland resources, which is as large as 504 million acres of timberland and 91 million acres of other forest land out of the 751 million acres of U.S. forestland. Implications of forest product use for bioenergy depend on the context of specific locations such as feedstock type and prior management, land conditions, transport and storage logistics, conversion processes used to produce energy, distribution and use. Markets for energy from biomass appear to be ready to grow in response to energy pricing, policy and demand, although recent increases in the supply of natural gas have reduced urgency for new biomass projects. Beyond use in the forest industry and some residences, biopower is not a large-scale enterprise in the United States. Societal choices about forest policy will also affect the carbon cycles on public and private forestland.

Observed and projected C change in the Southeastern US

Treesearch

John Coulston; David Wear; Jim Vose

2015-01-01

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain due to the effects of land use changes, management, disturbance, and climate change. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. Using a completely...

The role of historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: A process-based analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, A.D.; Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Kasischke, E.; Wirth, C.; Flannigan, M.; Harden, J.; Clein, Joy S.; Burnside, T.J.; McAllister, J.; Kurz, W.A.; Apps, M.; Shvidenko, A.

2007-01-01

Wildfire is a common occurrence in ecosystems of northern high latitudes, and changes in the fire regime of this region have consequences for carbon feedbacks to the climate system. To improve our understanding of how wildfire influences carbon dynamics of this region, we used the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage north of 45??N from the start of spatially explicit historically recorded fire records in the twentieth century through 2002, and evaluated the role of fire in the carbon dynamics of the region within the context of ecosystem responses to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate. Our analysis indicates that fire plays an important role in interannual and decadal scale variation of source/sink relationships of northern terrestrial ecosystems and also suggests that atmospheric CO2 may be important to consider in addition to changes in climate and fire disturbance. There are substantial uncertainties in the effects of fire on carbon storage in our simulations. These uncertainties are associated with sparse fire data for northern Eurasia, uncertainty in estimating carbon consumption, and difficulty in verifying assumptions about the representation of fires that occurred prior to the start of the historical fire record. To improve the ability to better predict how fire will influence carbon storage of this region in the future, new analyses of the retrospective role of fire in the carbon dynamics of northern high latitudes should address these uncertainties. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Plasticity and Kinky Chemistry of Carbon Nanotubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srivastava, Deepak; Dzegilenko, Fedor

2000-01-01

Since their discovery in 1991, carbon nanotubes have been the subject of intense research interest based on early predictions of their unique mechanical, electronic, and chemical properties. Materials with the predicted unique properties of carbon nanotubes are of great interest for use in future generations of aerospace vehicles. For their structural properties, carbon nanotubes could be used as reinforcing fibers in ultralight multifunctional composites. For their electronic properties, carbon nanotubes offer the potential of very high-speed, low-power computing elements, high-density data storage, and unique sensors. In a continuing effort to model and predict the properties of carbon nanotubes, Ames accomplished three significant results during FY99. First, accurate values of the nanomechanics and plasticity of carbon nanotubes based on quantum molecular dynamics simulations were computed. Second, the concept of mechanical deformation catalyzed-kinky-chemistry as a means to control local chemistry of nanotubes was discovered. Third, the ease of nano-indentation of silicon surfaces with carbon nanotubes was established. The elastic response and plastic failure mechanisms of single-wall nanotubes were investigated by means of quantum molecular dynamics simulations.

Hot spot dynamics in carbon nanotube array devices.

PubMed

Engel, Michael; Steiner, Mathias; Seo, Jung-Woo T; Hersam, Mark C; Avouris, Phaedon

2015-03-11

We report on the dynamics of spatial temperature distributions in aligned semiconducting carbon nanotube array devices with submicrometer channel lengths. By using high-resolution optical microscopy in combination with electrical transport measurements, we observe under steady state bias conditions the emergence of time-variable, local temperature maxima with dimensions below 300 nm, and temperatures above 400 K. On the basis of time domain cross-correlation analysis, we investigate how the intensity fluctuations of the thermal radiation patterns are correlated with the overall device current. The analysis reveals the interdependence of electrical current fluctuations and time-variable hot spot formation that limits the overall device performance and, ultimately, may cause device degradation. The findings have implications for the future development of carbon nanotube-based technologies.

Wind farm and solar park effects on plant-soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate.

PubMed

Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-06-01

Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant-soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant-soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Soil carbon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trumbore, Susan; Barbosa de Camargo, Plínio

The amount of organic carbon (C) stored in the upper meter of mineral soils in the Amazon Basin (˜40 Pg C) represents ˜3% of the estimated global store of soil carbon. Adding surface detrital C stocks and soil carbon deeper than 1 m can as much as quadruple this estimate. The potential for Amazon soil carbon to respond to changes in land use, climate, or atmospheric composition depends on the form and dynamics of soil carbon. Much (˜30% in the top ˜10 cm but >85% in soils to 1 m depth) of the carbon in mineral soils of the Oxisols and Ultisols that are the predominant soil types in the Amazon Basin is in forms that are strongly stabilized, with mean ages of centuries to thousands of years. Measurable changes in soil C stocks that accompany land use/land cover change occur in the upper meter of soil, although the presence of deep roots in forests systems drives an active C cycle at depths >1 m. Credible estimates of the potential for changes in Amazon soil C stocks with future land use and climate change are much smaller than predictions of aboveground biomass change. Soil organic matter influences fertility and other key soil properties, and thus is important independent of its role in the global C cycle. Most work on C dynamics is limited to upland soils, and more is needed to investigate C dynamics in poorly drained soils. Work is also needed to relate cycles of C with water, N, P, and other elements.

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

Treesearch

M.S. Balshi; A.D. McGuire; P. Duffy; M. Flannigan; D.W. Kicklighter; J. Melillo

2009-01-01

We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric...

The influence of hydrologic residence time on lake carbon cycling dynamics following extreme precipitation events

Treesearch

Jacob A. Zwart; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Christopher T. Solomon; Stuart E. Jones

2016-01-01

The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are expected to increase in the future, yet little is known about effects of such events on ecosystem structure and function. We examined how extreme precipitation events affect exports of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (t-DOC) from watersheds to lakes as well as in-lake heterotrophy in three north-temperate lakes....

Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

2017-11-01

Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty-first century. Although our model in conjunction with multiple disturbance scenarios may not reflect the true conditions of future forests, it provides a range of potential conditions as well as a useful guide to both current and future forest carbon management.

Energy technologies evaluated against climate targets using a cost and carbon trade-off curve.

PubMed

Trancik, Jessika E; Cross-Call, Daniel

2013-06-18

Over the next few decades, severe cuts in emissions from energy will be required to meet global climate-change mitigation goals. These emission reductions imply a major shift toward low-carbon energy technologies, and the economic cost and technical feasibility of mitigation are therefore highly dependent upon the future performance of energy technologies. However, existing models do not readily translate into quantitative targets against which we can judge the dynamic performance of technologies. Here, we present a simple, new model for evaluating energy-supply technologies and their improvement trajectories against climate-change mitigation goals. We define a target for technology performance in terms of the carbon intensity of energy, consistent with emission reduction goals, and show how the target depends upon energy demand levels. Because the cost of energy determines the level of adoption, we then compare supply technologies to one another and to this target based on their position on a cost and carbon trade-off curve and how the position changes over time. Applying the model to U.S. electricity, we show that the target for carbon intensity will approach zero by midcentury for commonly cited emission reduction goals, even under a high demand-side efficiency scenario. For Chinese electricity, the carbon intensity target is relaxed and less certain because of lesser emission reductions and greater variability in energy demand projections. Examining a century-long database on changes in the cost-carbon space, we find that the magnitude of changes in cost and carbon intensity that are required to meet future performance targets is not unprecedented, providing some evidence that these targets are within engineering reach. The cost and carbon trade-off curve can be used to evaluate the dynamic performance of existing and new technologies against climate-change mitigation goals.

Anthropogenic Land-use Change and the Dynamics of Amazon Forest Biomass

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laurance, William F.

2004-01-01

This project was focused on assessing the effects of prevailing land uses, such as habitat fragmentation, selective logging, and fire, on biomass and carbon storage in Amazonian forests, and on the dynamics of carbon sequestration in regenerating forests. Ancillary goals included developing GIs models to help predict the future condition of Amazonian forests, and assessing the effects of anthropogenic climate change and ENS0 droughts on intact and fragmented forests. Ground-based studies using networks of permanent plots were linked with remote-sensing data (including Landsat TM and AVHRR) at regional scales, and higher-resolution techniques (IKONOS imagery, videography, LIDAR, aerial photographs) at landscape and local scales. The project s specific goals were quite eclectic and included: Determining the effects of habitat fragmentation on forest dynamics, floristic composition, and the various components of above- and below-ground biomass. Assessing historical and physical factors that affect trajectories of forest regeneration and carbon sequestration on abandoned lands. Extrapolating results from local studies of biomass dynamics in fragmented and regenerating forests to landscape and regional scales in Amazonia, using remote sensing and GIS. Testing the hypothesis that intact Amazonian forests are functioning as a significant carbon sink. Examining destructive synergisms between forest fragmentation and fire. Assessing the short-term impacts of selective logging on aboveground biomass. Developing GIS models that integrate current spatial data on forest cover, deforestation, logging, mining, highway and roads, navigable rivers, vulnerability to wild fires, protected areas, and existing and planned infrastructure projects, in an effort to predict the future condition of Brazilian Amazonian forests over the next 20-25 years. Devising predictive spatial models to assess the influence of varied biophysical and anthropogenic predictors on Amazonian deforestation.

Climatic Controls on Forest Productivity in Western North America; Variability, Covariability, and Projected Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Mote, P.; Sparrow, S.; Massey, N.

2016-12-01

The forests of western North America serve as a carbon sink sequestering carbon and slowing the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere. Though still positive, the rate of net carbon uptake has been in decline over the past two decades. Regional drought has been shown to slow forest productivity and net carbon uptake despite warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons. With drought conditions projected to increase in frequency and severity under climate change there is concern that these forests' capacity as an effective carbon sink will continue to decrease in the future. To investigate how changes in regional hydroclimate may affect future carbon uptake in western US forests we dynamically downscaled global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3P with the land surface scheme MOSES2. We generated a 100-member ensemble of simulations for an historical period (1985-2015) and mid-21st century period (2030-2060) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We evaluated the effects of regional changes in atmospheric moisture demand, seasonality of water supply, and water stress on forest productivity and carbon uptake. We investigated how these changes in hydroclimate interact with the relaxing of temperature controls. This work can inform future adaptation efforts through improving our understanding of climatic controls on forest carbon sequestration.

Baseline and Projected Future Carbon Stocks and Fluxes in the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selmants, P. C.; Sleeter, B. M.; Giardina, C. P.; Zhu, Z.; Asner, G. P.

2016-12-01

Hawaii is characterized by steep climatic gradients and heterogeneous land cover within a small geographic area, presenting a model tropical system to capture ecosystem carbon dynamics across a wide range of climate, soil, and land use conditions. However, ecosystem carbon balance is poorly understood on a statewide level, and the potential for climate and land use change to affect carbon dynamics in Hawaii has not been formally assessed. We estimated current baseline and projected future ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes on the seven main Hawaiian Islands using a combination of remote sensing, published plot-level data, and simulation modeling. Total ecosystem carbon storage during the baseline period was estimated at 258 TgC, with 70% stored as soil organic carbon, 25% as live biomass and 5% as surface detritus, and gross primary production was estimated at 20 TgC y-1. Net ecosystem carbon balance, which incorporated carbon losses from freshwater aquatic fluxes to nearshore waters and wildland fire emissions, was estimated as 0.34 TgC y-1 during the baseline period, offsetting 7% of anthropogenic emissions. We used a state and transition simulation model to estimate the response of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes to potential changes in climate, land use, and wildfire over a 50-year projection period (2012-2061). Total ecosystem carbon storage was projected to increase by 5% by the year 2061, but net ecosystem carbon balance was projected to decline by 35% due to climate change induced reductions in statewide net primary production and increased carbon losses from land use and land cover change. Our analysis indicates that the State of Hawaii would remain a net carbon sink overall, primarily because of ecosystem carbon sequestration on Hawaii Island, but predicted changes in climate and land use on Kauai and Oahu would convert these islands to net carbon sources. The Hawaii carbon assessment is part of a larger effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess the carbon sequestration potential of ecosystems across the United States and should provide valuable information for setting research and policy priorities for sustainable carbon management strategies aimed at offsetting anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Cyclic occurrence of fire and its role in carbon dynamics along an edaphic moisture gradient in longleaf pine ecosystems.

PubMed

Whelan, Andrew; Mitchell, Robert; Staudhammer, Christina; Starr, Gregory

2013-01-01

Fire regulates the structure and function of savanna ecosystems, yet we lack understanding of how cyclic fire affects savanna carbon dynamics. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how predicted changes in climate may impact the interaction between fire and carbon cycling in these ecosystems. This study utilizes a novel combination of prescribed fire, eddy covariance (EC) and statistical techniques to investigate carbon dynamics in frequently burned longleaf pine savannas along a gradient of soil moisture availability (mesic, intermediate and xeric). This research approach allowed us to investigate the complex interactions between carbon exchange and cyclic fire along the ecological amplitude of longleaf pine. Over three years of EC measurement of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) show that the mesic site was a net carbon sink (NEE = -2.48 tonnes C ha(-1)), while intermediate and xeric sites were net carbon sources (NEE = 1.57 and 1.46 tonnes C ha(-1), respectively), but when carbon losses due to fuel consumption were taken into account, all three sites were carbon sources (10.78, 7.95 and 9.69 tonnes C ha(-1) at the mesic, intermediate and xeric sites, respectively). Nonetheless, rates of NEE returned to pre-fire levels 1-2 months following fire. Consumption of leaf area by prescribed fire was associated with reduction in NEE post-fire, and the system quickly recovered its carbon uptake capacity 30-60 days post fire. While losses due to fire affected carbon balances on short time scales (instantaneous to a few months), drought conditions over the final two years of the study were a more important driver of net carbon loss on yearly to multi-year time scales. However, longer-term observations over greater environmental variability and additional fire cycles would help to more precisely examine interactions between fire and climate and make future predictions about carbon dynamics in these systems.

Cyclic Occurrence of Fire and Its Role in Carbon Dynamics along an Edaphic Moisture Gradient in Longleaf Pine Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Whelan, Andrew; Mitchell, Robert; Staudhammer, Christina; Starr, Gregory

2013-01-01

Fire regulates the structure and function of savanna ecosystems, yet we lack understanding of how cyclic fire affects savanna carbon dynamics. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how predicted changes in climate may impact the interaction between fire and carbon cycling in these ecosystems. This study utilizes a novel combination of prescribed fire, eddy covariance (EC) and statistical techniques to investigate carbon dynamics in frequently burned longleaf pine savannas along a gradient of soil moisture availability (mesic, intermediate and xeric). This research approach allowed us to investigate the complex interactions between carbon exchange and cyclic fire along the ecological amplitude of longleaf pine. Over three years of EC measurement of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) show that the mesic site was a net carbon sink (NEE = −2.48 tonnes C ha−1), while intermediate and xeric sites were net carbon sources (NEE = 1.57 and 1.46 tonnes C ha−1, respectively), but when carbon losses due to fuel consumption were taken into account, all three sites were carbon sources (10.78, 7.95 and 9.69 tonnes C ha−1 at the mesic, intermediate and xeric sites, respectively). Nonetheless, rates of NEE returned to pre-fire levels 1–2 months following fire. Consumption of leaf area by prescribed fire was associated with reduction in NEE post-fire, and the system quickly recovered its carbon uptake capacity 30–60 days post fire. While losses due to fire affected carbon balances on short time scales (instantaneous to a few months), drought conditions over the final two years of the study were a more important driver of net carbon loss on yearly to multi-year time scales. However, longer-term observations over greater environmental variability and additional fire cycles would help to more precisely examine interactions between fire and climate and make future predictions about carbon dynamics in these systems. PMID:23335986

Quantifying variation in forest disturbance, and its effects on aboveground biomass dynamics, across the eastern United States.

PubMed

Vanderwel, Mark C; Coomes, David A; Purves, Drew W

2013-05-01

The role of tree mortality in the global carbon balance is complicated by strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity that arises from the stochastic nature of carbon loss through disturbance. Characterizing spatio-temporal variation in mortality (including disturbance) and its effects on forest and carbon dynamics is thus essential to understanding the current global forest carbon sink, and to predicting how it will change in future. We analyzed forest inventory data from the eastern United States to estimate plot-level variation in mortality (relative to a long-term background rate for individual trees) for nine distinct forest regions. Disturbances that produced at least a fourfold increase in tree mortality over an approximately 5 year interval were observed in 1-5% of plots in each forest region. The frequency of disturbance was lowest in the northeast, and increased southwards along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts as fire and hurricane disturbances became progressively more common. Across the central and northern parts of the region, natural disturbances appeared to reflect a diffuse combination of wind, insects, disease, and ice storms. By linking estimated covariation in tree growth and mortality over time with a data-constrained forest dynamics model, we simulated the implications of stochastic variation in mortality for long-term aboveground biomass changes across the eastern United States. A geographic gradient in disturbance frequency induced notable differences in biomass dynamics between the least- and most-disturbed regions, with variation in mortality causing the latter to undergo considerably stronger fluctuations in aboveground stand biomass over time. Moreover, regional simulations showed that a given long-term increase in mean mortality rates would support greater aboveground biomass when expressed through disturbance effects compared with background mortality, particularly for early-successional species. The effects of increased tree mortality on carbon stocks and forest composition may thus depend partly on whether future mortality increases are chronic or episodic in nature. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Quantifying variation in forest disturbance, and its effects on aboveground biomass dynamics, across the eastern United States

PubMed Central

Vanderwel, Mark C; Coomes, David A; Purves, Drew W

2013-01-01

The role of tree mortality in the global carbon balance is complicated by strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity that arises from the stochastic nature of carbon loss through disturbance. Characterizing spatio-temporal variation in mortality (including disturbance) and its effects on forest and carbon dynamics is thus essential to understanding the current global forest carbon sink, and to predicting how it will change in future. We analyzed forest inventory data from the eastern United States to estimate plot-level variation in mortality (relative to a long-term background rate for individual trees) for nine distinct forest regions. Disturbances that produced at least a fourfold increase in tree mortality over an approximately 5 year interval were observed in 1–5% of plots in each forest region. The frequency of disturbance was lowest in the northeast, and increased southwards along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts as fire and hurricane disturbances became progressively more common. Across the central and northern parts of the region, natural disturbances appeared to reflect a diffuse combination of wind, insects, disease, and ice storms. By linking estimated covariation in tree growth and mortality over time with a data-constrained forest dynamics model, we simulated the implications of stochastic variation in mortality for long-term aboveground biomass changes across the eastern United States. A geographic gradient in disturbance frequency induced notable differences in biomass dynamics between the least- and most-disturbed regions, with variation in mortality causing the latter to undergo considerably stronger fluctuations in aboveground stand biomass over time. Moreover, regional simulations showed that a given long-term increase in mean mortality rates would support greater aboveground biomass when expressed through disturbance effects compared with background mortality, particularly for early-successional species. The effects of increased tree mortality on carbon stocks and forest composition may thus depend partly on whether future mortality increases are chronic or episodic in nature. PMID:23505000

Resolving the Intricacies of Lateral Exports of Inorganic Carbon and Alkalinity from Coastal Salt Marshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, A. Z.; Chu, S. N.; Kroeger, K. D.; Gonneea, M. E.; Ganju, N. K.

2017-12-01

Dynamic lateral exports of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (Alk) via tidal exchange from highly productive intertidal marshes are an important piece of puzzle in the coastal carbon cycle, challenging our capability of assessing coastal carbon budgets and projecting future changes under anthropogenic pressure. The effects of these exports on seawater chemistry are profound yet complicated to study. This study presents the latest development of assessing lateral DIC and Alk fluxes from tidal marshes and examining their effects on seawater chemistry and coastal carbon budgets. The study evaluates different approaches to quantify these exports in order to obtain insights on the best and efficient way to capture the dynamics of such exports. A state-of-the-art DIC sensor, Channelized Optical System (CHANOS), was deployed to establish the true DIC fluxes. They are compared to the fluxes derived from empirical modeling and traditional bottle measurements. Salt marshes can acidify and alkalize tidal water by injecting CO2 (DIC) and Alk over a same tidal cycle. However, their generation is decoupled as a result of deferential effects of aerobic and anaerobic respirations. This creates complex scenarios of large swings of seawater chemistry and buffering capacity in tidal water over tidal and seasonal cycles. Marsh exports of DIC and Alk may have complex implications for the future, more acidified ocean. The latest estimates of marsh DIC and Alk exports suggest they are a major term in the marsh carbon budget and can be translated into one of the primary components in the coastal carbon cycle.

A Tale of Two Forest Carbon Assessments in the Eastern United States: Forest Use Versus Cover as a Metric of Change

Treesearch

C. W. Woodall; B. F. Walters; M. B. Russell; J. W. Coulston; G. M. Domke; A. W. D' Amato; P. A. Sowers

2016-01-01

The dynamics of land-use practices (for example, forest versus settlements) is often a major driver of changes in terrestrial carbon (C). As the management and conservation of forest land uses are considered a means of reducing future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the monitoring of forest C stocks and stock change by categories of land-use...

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Agricultural Land Use, and Regional Carbon Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.

2014-12-01

Changes in land use have caused a net release of carbon to the atmosphere over the last centuries and decades1. On one hand, agriculture accounts for 52% and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively. On the other hand, many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management2. From this perspective, land use change that reduces emissions and/or increases carbon sequestration can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As shown in Figure 1, this paper is an integrated study of climate impacts, land uses, and regional carbon changes to examine, link and assess climate impacts on regional carbon changes via impacts on land uses. This study will contribute to previous research in two aspects: impacts of climate change on future land uses under an uncertain future world and projections of regional carbon dynamics due to changes in future land use. Specifically, we will examine how land use change under historical climate change using observed data and then project changes in land use under future climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two emission scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). More importantly, we will investigate future land use under uncertainties with changes in agricultural development and social-economic conditions along with a changing climate. By doing this, we then could integrate with existing efforts by USGS land-change scientists developing and parameterizing models capable of projecting changes across a full spectrum of land use and land cover changes and track the consequences on ecosystem carbon to provide better information for land managers and policy makers when informing climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.

Long residence times of rapidly decomposable soil organic matter: application of a multi-phase, multi-component, and vertically resolved model (BAMS1) to soil carbon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Maggi, F.; Kleber, M.; Torn, M. S.; Tang, J. Y.; Dwivedi, D.; Guerry, N.

2014-07-01

Accurate representation of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics in Earth system models is critical for future climate prediction, yet large uncertainties exist regarding how, and to what extent, the suite of proposed relevant mechanisms should be included. To investigate how various mechanisms interact to influence SOM storage and dynamics, we developed an SOM reaction network integrated in a one-dimensional, multi-phase, and multi-component reactive transport solver. The model includes representations of bacterial and fungal activity, multiple archetypal polymeric and monomeric carbon substrate groups, aqueous chemistry, aqueous advection and diffusion, gaseous diffusion, and adsorption (and protection) and desorption from the soil mineral phase. The model predictions reasonably matched observed depth-resolved SOM and dissolved organic matter (DOM) stocks and fluxes, lignin content, and fungi to aerobic bacteria ratios. We performed a suite of sensitivity analyses under equilibrium and dynamic conditions to examine the role of dynamic sorption, microbial assimilation rates, and carbon inputs. To our knowledge, observations do not exist to fully test such a complicated model structure or to test the hypotheses used to explain observations of substantial storage of very old SOM below the rooting depth. Nevertheless, we demonstrated that a reasonable combination of sorption parameters, microbial biomass and necromass dynamics, and advective transport can match observations without resorting to an arbitrary depth-dependent decline in SOM turnover rates, as is often done. We conclude that, contrary to assertions derived from existing turnover time based model formulations, observed carbon content and Δ14C vertical profiles are consistent with a representation of SOM consisting of carbon compounds with relatively fast reaction rates, vertical aqueous transport, and dynamic protection on mineral surfaces.

Applications of Remote Sensing for Studying Lateral Carbon Fluxes and Inundation Dynamics in Tidal Wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, B. T.; Tzortziou, M.; McDonald, K. C.

2017-12-01

Wetlands play a key role in Earth's carbon cycle. However, wetland carbon cycling exhibits a high level of spatiotemporal dynamism, and thus, is not as well understood as carbon cycling in other ecosystems. In order to accurately characterize wetland carbon cycling and fluxes, wetland vegetation phenology, seasonal inundation dynamics, and tidal regimes must be understood as these factors influence carbon generation and transport. Here, we use radar remote sensing to map wetland properties in the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the United States with more than 1,500 square miles of tidal wetlands, across a range of tidal amplitudes, salinity regimes, and soil organic matter content levels. We have been using Sentinel-1 and ALOS PALSAR-1 radar measurements to characterize vegetation and seasonal inundation dynamics with the future goal of characterizing salinity gradients and tidal regimes. Differences in radar backscatter from various surface targets has been shown to effectively discriminate between dry soil, wet soil, vegetated areas, and open water. Radar polarization differences and ratios are particularly effective at distinguishing between vegetated and non-vegetated areas. Utilizing these principles, we have been characterizing wetland types using supervised classification techniques including: Random Forest, Maximum Likelihood, and Minimum Distance. The National Wetlands Inventory has been used as training and validation data. Ideally, the techniques we outline in this research will be applicable to the characterization of wetlands in coastal areas outside of Chesapeake Bay.

Predicting response of fuel load to future changes in climate and atmospheric composition in the Southern United States.

Treesearch

Chi Zhang; Hanqin Tian; Yuhang Wang; Tao Zeng; Yongqiang Liu

2010-01-01

The model projected ecosystem carbon dynamics were incorporated into the default (contemporary) fuel load map developed by FCCS (Fuel Characteristic Classification System) to estimate the dynamics of fuel load in the Southern United States in response to projected changes in climate and atmosphere (CO2 and nitrogen deposition) from 2002 to 2050. The study results...

Land use scenarios development and impacts assessment on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration in the West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chabi, A.

2015-12-01

ackground: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), being developed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires information on the carbon/nitrogen stocks in the plant biomass for predicting future climate under scenarios development. The development of land use scenarios in West Africa is needed to predict future impacts of change in the environment and the socio-economic status of rural communities. The study aims at developing land use scenario based on mitigation strategy to climate change as an issue of contributing for carbon and nitrogen sequestration, the condition 'food focused' as a scenario based crop production and 'financial investment' as scenario based on an economic development pathway, and to explore the possible future temporal and spatial impacts on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration/emission and socio-economic status of rural communities. Preliminary results: BEN-LUDAS (Benin-Land Use DyNamic Simulator) model, carbon and nitrogen equations, remote sensing and socio-economic data were used to predict the future impacts of each scenario in the environment and human systems. The preliminary results which are under analysis will be presented soon. Conclusion: The proposed BEN-LUDAS models will help to contribute to policy decision making at the local and regional scale and to predict future impacts of change in the environment and socio-economic status of the rural communities. Keywords: Land use scenarios development, BEN-LUDAS, socio-economic status of rural communities, future impacts of change, assessment, West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

Predictive models of forest dynamics.

PubMed

Purves, Drew; Pacala, Stephen

2008-06-13

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data.

The Influence of Submarine Groundwater Discharge on Nearshore Marine Dissolved Organic Carbon Reactivity, Concentration Dynamics, and Offshore Export

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodridge, B.

2017-12-01

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is the largest pool of reduced carbon in the oceans, with a reservoir equivalent to atmospheric CO2. In nearshore marine regions, DOC sources include primary production, terrestrial DOC delivered by river discharge, and/or terrestrial and marine DOC delivered via submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). While the importance of SGD to coastal carbon cycling has been implicated, the actual influence of this process on nearshore carbon dynamics and offshore export has not been explicitly identified. This study, conducted at a predominantly marine-influenced intertidal beach-nearshore ocean system along the Santa Barbara, California coastline, aimed to address this knowledge gap. I coupled dark, temperature-controlled laboratory incubations, radioisotopic (Rn-222) SGD estimates, and a DOC box model to identify the influence of pore water mixing with seawater on nearshore DOC reactivity, concentration dynamics, and offshore export. Even with a relatively low volumetric contribution, SGD pore water mixing altered nearshore DOC reactivity, and elevated the nearshore DOC concentration by 0.9 to 5.6 µmol L-1 over nearshore seawater residence times ranging from 1 to 6 days. These elevated DOC concentrations were equivalent to 1.2 to 7.5% of the mean offshore DOC concentration taken during the summer months in the Santa Barbara Channel, when the coastal water column is highly thermally stratified. Despite the challenge of assessing carbon dynamics in physically and biogeochemically complex nearshore marine regions, this study demonstrates the need for future investigations to assess and account for SGD as a non-trivial component of coastal marine carbon cycles.

Improving predictions of large scale soil carbon dynamics: Integration of fine-scale hydrological and biogeochemical processes, scaling, and benchmarking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Dwivedi, D.; Ghimire, B.; Hoffman, F. M.; Pau, G. S. H.; Randerson, J. T.; Shen, C.; Tang, J.; Zhu, Q.

2015-12-01

Numerical model representations of decadal- to centennial-scale soil-carbon dynamics are a dominant cause of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent attempts by some Earth System Model (ESM) teams to integrate previously unrepresented soil processes (e.g., explicit microbial processes, abiotic interactions with mineral surfaces, vertical transport), poor performance of many ESM land models against large-scale and experimental manipulation observations, and complexities associated with spatial heterogeneity highlight the nascent nature of our community's ability to accurately predict future soil carbon dynamics. I will present recent work from our group to develop a modeling framework to integrate pore-, column-, watershed-, and global-scale soil process representations into an ESM (ACME), and apply the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for evaluation. At the column scale and across a wide range of sites, observed depth-resolved carbon stocks and their 14C derived turnover times can be explained by a model with explicit representation of two microbial populations, a simple representation of mineralogy, and vertical transport. Integrating soil and plant dynamics requires a 'process-scaling' approach, since all aspects of the multi-nutrient system cannot be explicitly resolved at ESM scales. I will show that one approach, the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation, improves predictions of forest nitrogen and phosphorus experimental manipulations and leads to very different global soil carbon predictions. Translating model representations from the site- to ESM-scale requires a spatial scaling approach that either explicitly resolves the relevant processes, or more practically, accounts for fine-resolution dynamics at coarser scales. To that end, I will present recent watershed-scale modeling work that applies reduced order model methods to accurately scale fine-resolution soil carbon dynamics to coarse-resolution simulations. Finally, we contend that creating believable soil carbon predictions requires a robust, transparent, and community-available benchmarking framework. I will present an ILAMB evaluation of several of the above-mentioned approaches in ACME, and attempt to motivate community adoption of this evaluation approach.

Importance of Nitrogen Availability on Land Carbon Sequestration in Northern Eurasia during the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kicklighter, D. W.; Melillo, J. M.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Lu, X.; Zhuang, Q.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition, nitrogen fixation, and the application of nitrogen fertilizers provide subsidies to land ecosystems that can increase nitrogen availability for vegetation production and thereby influence land carbon dynamics. In addition, enhanced decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) from warming soils and permafrost degradation may also increase nitrogen availability in Northern Eurasia. Here, we examine how changes in nitrogen availability may influence land carbon dynamics in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century by comparing results for a "business as usual" scenario (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways or RCP 8.5) and a stabilization scenario (RCP 4.5) between a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that does not consider the effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition, nitrogen fixation and soil thermal dynamics on land carbon dynamics (TEM 4.4) and a version that does consider these dynamics (TEM 6.0). In these simulations, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, nitrogen fixation, and fertilizer applications provide an additional 3.3 Pg N (RCP 4.5) to 3.9 Pg N (RCP 8.5) to Northern Eurasian ecosystems over the 21st century. Land ecosystems retain about 38% (RCP4.5) to 48% (RCP 8.5) of this nitrogen subsidy. Net nitrogen mineralization estimated by TEM 6.0 provide an additional 1.0 Pg N to vegetation than estimated by TEM 4.4 over the 21st century from enhanced decomposition of SOM including SOM formerly protected by permafrost. The enhanced nitrogen availability in TEM 6.0 allows Northern Eurasian ecosystems to sequester 1.8x (RCP 8.5) to 2.4x (RCP 4.5) more carbon over the 21st century than estimated by TEM 4.4. Our results indicate that consideration of nitrogen subsidies and soil thermal dynamics have a large influence on how simulated land carbon dynamics in Northern Eurasia will respond to future changes in climate, atmospheric chemistry, and disturbances.

Re-assessment of plant carbon dynamics at the Duke free-air CO2 enrichment site: interactions of atmospheric [CO2] with nitrogen and water availability over stand development

Treesearch

Heather R. McCarthy; Ram Oren; Kurt H Johnsen; Anne Gallet-Budynek; Seth G. Pritchard; Charles W Cook; Shannon L. LaDeau; Robert B. Jackson; Adrien C. Finzi

2010-01-01

The potential for elevated [CO2]-induced changes to plant carbon (C) storage, through modifications in plant production and allocation of C among plant pools, is an important source of uncertainty when predicting future forest function. Utilizing 10 yr of data from the Duke free-air CO2 enrichment site, we evaluated the...

Impact of a Regional Drought on Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes and Atmospheric Carbon: Results from a Coupled Carbon Cycle Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Eunjee; Koster, Randal D.; Ott, Lesley E.; Weir, Brad; Mahanama, Sarith; Chang, Yehui; Zeng, Fan-Wei

2017-01-01

Understanding the underlying processes that control the carbon cycle is key to predicting future global change. Much of the uncertainty in the magnitude and variability of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) stems from uncertainty in terrestrial carbon fluxes, and the relative impacts of temperature and moisture variations on regional and global scales are poorly understood. Here we investigate the impact of a regional drought on terrestrial carbon fluxes and CO2 mixing ratios over North America using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model. Results show a sequence of changes in carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2, induced by the drought. The relative contributions of meteorological changes to the neighboring carbon dynamics are also presented. The coupled modeling approach allows a direct quantification of the impact of the regional drought on local and proximate carbon exchange at the land surface via the carbon-water feedback processes.

Impacts of land use and climate change on carbon dynamics in south-central Senegal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shu-Guang; Kaire, M.; Wood, Eric C.; Diallo, O.; Tieszen, Larry L.

2004-01-01

Total carbon stock in vegetation and soils was reduced 37% in south-central Senegal from 1900 to 2000. The decreasing trend will continue during the 21st century unless forest clearing is stopped, selective logging dramatically reduced, and climate change, if any, relatively small. Developing a sustainable fuelwood and charcoal production system could be the most feasible and significant carbon sequestration project in the region. If future climate changes dramatically as some models have predicted, cropland productivity will drop more than 65% around 2100, posing a serious threat to food security and the efficiency of carbon sequestration projects.

Relative importance of multiple factors on terrestrial loading of DOC to Arctic river networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kicklighter, David W.; Hayes, Daniel J; Mcclelland, James W

2014-01-01

Terrestrial carbon dynamics influence the contribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to river networks in addition to controlling carbon fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. In this study, we use a biogeochemical process model to simulate the lateral transfer of DOC from land to the Arctic Ocean via riverine transport. We estimate that the pan-arctic watershed has contributed, on average, 32 Tg C/yr of DOC to the Arctic Ocean over the 20th century with most coming from the extensive area of boreal deciduous needle-leaved forests and forested wetlands in Eurasian watersheds. We also estimate that the rate ofmore » terrestrial DOC loading has been increasing by 0.037 Tg C/yr2 over the 20th century primarily as a result of increases in air temperatures and precipitation. These increases have been partially compensated by decreases in terrestrial DOC loading caused by wildfires. Other environmental factors (CO2 fertilization, ozone pollution, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, timber harvest, agriculture) are estimated to have relatively small effects on terrestrial DOC loading to arctic rivers. The effects of the various environmental factors on terrestrial carbon dynamics have both compensated and enhanced concurrent effects on hydrology to influence terrestrial DOC loading. Future increases in riverine DOC concentrations and export may occur from warming-induced increases in terrestrial DOC production associated with enhanced microbial metabolism and the exposure of additional organic matter from permafrost degradation along with decreases in water yield associated with warming-induced increases in evapotranspiration. Improvements in simulating terrestrial DOC loading to pan-arctic rivers in the future will require better information on the spatial distribution of precipitation and its temporal trends, carbon dynamics of larch-dominated ecosystems in eastern Siberia, and the role of industrial organic effluents on carbon budgets of rivers in western Russia.« less

Element budgets in an Arctic mesocosm CO2 perturbation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czerny, J.; Schulz, K. G.; Boxhammer, T.; Bellerby, R. G. J.; Büdenbender, J.; Engel, A.; Krug, S. A.; Ludwig, A.; Nachtigall, K.; Nondal, G.; Niehoff, B.; Siljakova, A.; Riebesell, U.

2012-08-01

Recent studies on the impacts of ocean acidification on pelagic communities have identified changes in carbon to nutrient dynamics with related shifts in elemental stoichiometry. In principle, mesocosm experiments provide the opportunity of determining the temporal dynamics of all relevant carbon and nutrient pools and, thus, calculating elemental budgets. In practice, attempts to budget mesocosm enclosures are often hampered by uncertainties in some of the measured pools and fluxes, in particular due to uncertainties in constraining air/sea gas exchange, particle sinking, and wall growth. In an Arctic mesocosm study on ocean acidification using KOSMOS (Kiel Off-Shore Mesocosms for future Ocean Simulation) all relevant element pools and fluxes of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus were measured, using an improved experimental design intended to narrow down some of the mentioned uncertainties. Water column concentrations of particulate and dissolved organic and inorganic constituents were determined daily. New approaches for quantitative estimates of material sinking to the bottom of the mesocosms and gas exchange in 48 h temporal resolution, as well as estimates of wall growth were developed to close the gaps in element budgets. Future elevated pCO2 was found to enhance net autotrophic community carbon uptake in 2 of the 3 experimental phases but did not significantly affect particle elemental composition. Enhanced carbon consumption appears to result in accumulation of dissolved organic compounds under nutrient recycling summer conditions. This carbon over-consumption effect becomes evident from budget calculations, but was too small to be resolved by direct measurements of dissolved organics. The out-competing of large diatoms by comparatively small algae in nutrient uptake caused reduced production rates under future ocean CO2 conditions in the end of the experiment. This CO2 induced shift away from diatoms towards smaller phytoplankton and enhanced cycling of dissolved organics was pushing the system towards a retention type food chain with overall negative effects on export potential.

Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

Modelling carbon cycle in boreal wetlands with the Earth System Model ECHAM6/MPIOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getzieh, Robert J.; Brovkin, Victor; Kleinen, Thomas; Raivonen, Maarit; Sevanto, Sanna

2010-05-01

Wetlands of the northern high latitudes provide excellent conditions for peat accumulation and methanogenesis. High moisture and low O2 content in the soils lead to effective preservation of soil organic matter and methane emissions. Boreal Wetlands contain about 450 PgC and currently constitute a significant natural source of methane (CH4) even though they cover only 3% of the global land surface. While storing carbon and removing CO2 from the atmosphere, boreal wetlands have contributed to global cooling on millennial timescales. Undisturbed boreal wetlands are likely to continue functioning as a net carbon sink. On the other hand these carbon pools might be destabilised in future since they are sensitive to climate change. Given that processes of peat accumulation and decay are closely dependent on hydrology and temperature, this balance may be altered significantly in the future. As a result, northern wetlands could have a large impact on carbon cycle-climate feedback mechanisms and therefore play an important role in global carbon cycle dynamics. However global biogeochemistry models used for simulations of CO2 dynamics in past and future climates usually neglect carbon cycle in wetlands. We investigate the potential for positive or negative feedbacks to the climate system through fluxes of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) with the general circulation model ECHAM6/MPIOM. A generic model of peat accumulation and decay has been developed and implemented into the land surface module JSBACH. We consider anaerobic biogeochemical processes which lead to formation of thick organic soils. Furthermore we consider specific wetland plant functional types (PFTs) in our model such as vascular plants (sedges) which impact methane transport and oxidation processes and non vascular plants (sphagnum mosses) which are promoting peat growth. As prototypes we use the modelling approaches by Frolking et al. (2001) as well as Walter & Heimann (2001) for the peat dynamics, and the wetland model by Wania (2008) for vegetation cover and methane emissions. An initial distribution of wetlands follows the GLWD-3 map by Lehner and Döll (2004). A dynamical wetlands hydrology scheme (T. Stacke) and a methane transport and emission model (M. Raivonen) are at the moment also under development at the MPI for Meteorology respectively in close cooperation with the University of Helsinki. First results of our modelling approach will be presented. REFERENCES S. Frolking et al., Ecosystems 4, 479-498 (2001). B. Lehner et al., Journal of Hydrology 296, 1-22 (2004). B. P. Walter et al., J. Geophys. Res. 106, D24, 34189-34206 and 34207-34219 (2001). R. Wania et al., Global Biogeochem. Cycles 23, GB3014 and GB3015 (2009).

Weaker soil carbon-climate feedbacks resulting from microbial and abiotic interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jinyun; Riley, William J.

2015-01-01

The large uncertainty in soil carbon-climate feedback predictions has been attributed to the incorrect parameterization of decomposition temperature sensitivity (Q10; ref. ) and microbial carbon use efficiency. Empirical experiments have found that these parameters vary spatiotemporally, but such variability is not included in current ecosystem models. Here we use a thermodynamically based decomposition model to test the hypothesis that this observed variability arises from interactions between temperature, microbial biogeochemistry, and mineral surface sorptive reactions. We show that because mineral surfaces interact with substrates, enzymes and microbes, both Q10 and microbial carbon use efficiency are hysteretic (so that neither can be represented by a single static function) and the conventional labile and recalcitrant substrate characterization with static temperature sensitivity is flawed. In a 4-K temperature perturbation experiment, our fully dynamic model predicted more variable but weaker soil carbon-climate feedbacks than did the static Q10 and static carbon use efficiency model when forced with yearly, daily and hourly variable temperatures. These results imply that current Earth system models probably overestimate the response of soil carbon stocks to global warming. Future ecosystem models should therefore consider the dynamic interactions between sorptive mineral surfaces, substrates and microbial processes.

Fungi in the future: Interannual variation and effects of atmospheric change on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities

DOE PAGES

Cotton, T. E. Anne; Fitter, Alastair H.; Miller, R. Michael; ...

2015-01-05

Understanding the natural dynamics of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and their response to global environmental change is essential for the prediction of future plant growth and ecosystem functions. We investigated the long-term temporal dynamics and effect of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) and ozone (O 3) concentrations on AM fungal communities. Molecular methods were used to characterize the AM fungal communities of soybean ( Glycine max) grown under elevated and ambient atmospheric concentrations of both CO 2 and O 3 within a free air concentration enrichment experiment in three growing seasons over 5 yr. Elevated CO 2 altered themore » community composition of AM fungi, increasing the ratio of Glomeraceae to Gigasporaceae. By contrast, no effect of elevated O 3 on AM fungal communities was detected. However, the greatest compositional differences detected were between years, suggesting that, at least in the short term, large-scale interannual temporal dynamics are stronger mediators than atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of AM fungal communities. We conclude that, although atmospheric change may significantly alter AM fungal communities, this effect may be masked by the influences of natural changes and successional patterns through time. We suggest that changes in carbon availability are important determinants of the community dynamics of AM fungi.« less

Earth System Model Needs for Including the Interactive Representation of Nitrogen Deposition and Drought Effects on Forested Ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Drewniak, Beth; Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel

2017-07-27

One of the biggest uncertainties of climate change is determining the response of vegetation to many co-occurring stressors. In particular, many forests are experiencing increased nitrogen deposition and are expected to suffer in the future from increased drought frequency and intensity. Interactions between drought and nitrogen deposition are antagonistic and non-additive, which makes predictions of vegetation response dependent on multiple factors. The tools we use (Earth system models) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the carbon cycle are ill equipped to capture the physiological feedbacks and dynamic responses of ecosystems to these types of stressors. In this manuscript,more » we review the observed effects of nitrogen deposition and drought on vegetation as they relate to productivity, particularly focusing on carbon uptake and partitioning. We conclude there are several areas of model development that can improve the predicted carbon uptake under increasing nitrogen deposition and drought. This includes a more flexible framework for carbon and nitrogen partitioning, dynamic carbon allocation, better representation of root form and function, age and succession dynamics, competition, and plant modeling using trait-based approaches. These areas of model development have the potential to improve the forecasting ability and reduce the uncertainty of climate models.« less

Who's driving?: Separating Fire, CO2, and Climate Change Influences on Vegetation and Carbon Dynamics on MC2 Results for Western Oregon and Washington, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, T.; Bachelet, D. M.; Ferschweiler, K.

2016-12-01

For Oregon and Washington west of the Cascade Mountain crest, results from the MC2 global dynamic vegetation model have projected a shift in potential vegetation type from predominantly conifer to predominantly mixed forest over the 21st century, with a shift from mixed to conifer in some areas. Carbon stocks have been projected to fall over this period. We ran MC2 using the CCSM4 RCP 8.5 climate future downscaled to 2.5 arc minute resolution with 5 different configurations: no fire; assumed ignitions without fire suppression; assumed ignitions with fire suppression; assumed ignitions with fire suppression and with CO2 concentration held at the preindustrial level; and stochastic ignitions without fire suppression. Results show that vegetation change is the result of climate change alone, while carbon is influenced by both fire occurrence and CO2-induced increased water use efficiency. While model results do not indicate a large change in carbon dynamics concomitant with the shift in vegetation, it is reasonable to expect that a change in conditions resulting in such a change in vegetation type would stress the existing vegetation resulting in some mortality and loss of live carbon.

Earth System Model Needs for Including the Interactive Representation of Nitrogen Deposition and Drought Effects on Forested Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drewniak, Beth; Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel

One of the biggest uncertainties of climate change is determining the response of vegetation to many co-occurring stressors. In particular, many forests are experiencing increased nitrogen deposition and are expected to suffer in the future from increased drought frequency and intensity. Interactions between drought and nitrogen deposition are antagonistic and non-additive, which makes predictions of vegetation response dependent on multiple factors. The tools we use (Earth system models) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the carbon cycle are ill equipped to capture the physiological feedbacks and dynamic responses of ecosystems to these types of stressors. In this manuscript,more » we review the observed effects of nitrogen deposition and drought on vegetation as they relate to productivity, particularly focusing on carbon uptake and partitioning. We conclude there are several areas of model development that can improve the predicted carbon uptake under increasing nitrogen deposition and drought. This includes a more flexible framework for carbon and nitrogen partitioning, dynamic carbon allocation, better representation of root form and function, age and succession dynamics, competition, and plant modeling using trait-based approaches. These areas of model development have the potential to improve the forecasting ability and reduce the uncertainty of climate models.« less

ORCHIDEE-SOM: modeling soil organic carbon (SOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics along vertical soil profiles in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camino-Serrano, Marta; Guenet, Bertrand; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Ciais, Philippe; Bastrikov, Vladislav; De Vos, Bruno; Gielen, Bert; Gleixner, Gerd; Jornet-Puig, Albert; Kaiser, Klaus; Kothawala, Dolly; Lauerwald, Ronny; Peñuelas, Josep; Schrumpf, Marion; Vicca, Sara; Vuichard, Nicolas; Walmsley, David; Janssens, Ivan A.

2018-03-01

Current land surface models (LSMs) typically represent soils in a very simplistic way, assuming soil organic carbon (SOC) as a bulk, and thus impeding a correct representation of deep soil carbon dynamics. Moreover, LSMs generally neglect the production and export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils to rivers, leading to overestimations of the potential carbon sequestration on land. This common oversimplified processing of SOC in LSMs is partly responsible for the large uncertainty in the predictions of the soil carbon response to climate change. In this study, we present a new soil carbon module called ORCHIDEE-SOM, embedded within the land surface model ORCHIDEE, which is able to reproduce the DOC and SOC dynamics in a vertically discretized soil to 2 m. The model includes processes of biological production and consumption of SOC and DOC, DOC adsorption on and desorption from soil minerals, diffusion of SOC and DOC, and DOC transport with water through and out of the soils to rivers. We evaluated ORCHIDEE-SOM against observations of DOC concentrations and SOC stocks from four European sites with different vegetation covers: a coniferous forest, a deciduous forest, a grassland, and a cropland. The model was able to reproduce the SOC stocks along their vertical profiles at the four sites and the DOC concentrations within the range of measurements, with the exception of the DOC concentrations in the upper soil horizon at the coniferous forest. However, the model was not able to fully capture the temporal dynamics of DOC concentrations. Further model improvements should focus on a plant- and depth-dependent parameterization of the new input model parameters, such as the turnover times of DOC and the microbial carbon use efficiency. We suggest that this new soil module, when parameterized for global simulations, will improve the representation of the global carbon cycle in LSMs, thus helping to constrain the predictions of the future SOC response to global warming.

A sensor fusion field experiment in forest ecosystem dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.; Ranson, K. Jon; Williams, Darrel L.; Levine, Elissa R.; Goltz, Stewart M.

1990-01-01

The background of the Forest Ecosystem Dynamics field campaign is presented, a progress report on the analysis of the collected data and related modeling activities is provided, and plans for future experiments at different points in the phenological cycle are outlined. The ecological overview of the study site is presented, and attention is focused on forest stands, needles, and atmospheric measurements. Sensor deployment and thermal and microwave observations are discussed, along with two examples of the optical radiation measurements obtained during the experiment in support of radiative transfer modeling. Future activities pertaining to an archival system, synthetic aperture radar, carbon acquisition modeling, and upcoming field experiments are considered.

Nutrient cycle benchmarks for earth system land model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Q.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.; Zhao, L.

2017-12-01

Projecting future biosphere-climate feedbacks using Earth system models (ESMs) relies heavily on robust modeling of land surface carbon dynamics. More importantly, soil nutrient (particularly, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) dynamics strongly modulate carbon dynamics, such as plant sequestration of atmospheric CO2. Prevailing ESM land models all consider nitrogen as a potentially limiting nutrient, and several consider phosphorus. However, including nutrient cycle processes in ESM land models potentially introduces large uncertainties that could be identified and addressed by improved observational constraints. We describe the development of two nutrient cycle benchmarks for ESM land models: (1) nutrient partitioning between plants and soil microbes inferred from 15N and 33P tracers studies and (2) nutrient limitation effects on carbon cycle informed by long-term fertilization experiments. We used these benchmarks to evaluate critical hypotheses regarding nutrient cycling and their representation in ESMs. We found that a mechanistic representation of plant-microbe nutrient competition based on relevant functional traits best reproduced observed plant-microbe nutrient partitioning. We also found that for multiple-nutrient models (i.e., N and P), application of Liebig's law of the minimum is often inaccurate. Rather, the Multiple Nutrient Limitation (MNL) concept better reproduces observed carbon-nutrient interactions.

How can present and future satellite missions support scientific studies that address ocean acidification?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Salisbury, Joseph; Vandemark, Douglas; Jonsson, Bror; Balch, William; Chakraborty, Sumit; Lohrenz, Steven; Chapron, Bertrand; Hales, Burke; Mannino, Antonio; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Reul, Nicolas; Signorini, Sergio; Wanninkhof, Rik; Yates, Kimberly K.

2016-01-01

Space-based observations offer unique capabilities for studying spatial and temporal dynamics of the upper ocean inorganic carbon cycle and, in turn, supporting research tied to ocean acidification (OA). Satellite sensors measuring sea surface temperature, color, salinity, wind, waves, currents, and sea level enable a fuller understanding of a range of physical, chemical, and biological phenomena that drive regional OA dynamics as well as the potentially varied impacts of carbon cycle change on a broad range of ecosystems. Here, we update and expand on previous work that addresses the benefits of space-based assets for OA and carbonate system studies. Carbonate chemistry and the key processes controlling surface ocean OA variability are reviewed. Synthesis of present satellite data streams and their utility in this arena are discussed, as are opportunities on the horizon for using new satellite sensors with increased spectral, temporal, and/or spatial resolution. We outline applications that include the ability to track the biochemically dynamic nature of water masses, to map coral reefs at higher resolution, to discern functional phytoplankton groups and their relationships to acid perturbations, and to track processes that contribute to acid variation near the land-ocean interface.

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fan, Zhaosheng; McGuire, Anthony David; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Waddington, James Michael; Kane, Evan S.

2013-01-01

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO2 and CH4 could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process-based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS-TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005–2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water-table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO2 emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.

Insights and issues with simulating terrestrial DOC loading of Arctic river networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kicklighter, David W.; Hayes, Daniel J.; McClelland, James W.; Peterson, Bruce J.; McGuire, A. David; Melillo, Jerry M.

2013-01-01

Terrestrial carbon dynamics influence the contribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to river networks in addition to hydrology. In this study, we use a biogeochemical process model to simulate the lateral transfer of DOC from land to the Arctic Ocean via riverine transport. We estimate that, over the 20th century, the pan-Arctic watershed has contributed, on average, 32 Tg C/yr of DOC to river networks emptying into the Arctic Ocean with most of the DOC coming from the extensive area of boreal deciduous needle-leaved forests and forested wetlands in Eurasian watersheds. We also estimate that the rate of terrestrial DOC loading has been increasing by 0.037 Tg C/yr2 over the 20th century primarily as a result of climate-induced increases in water yield. These increases have been offset by decreases in terrestrial DOC loading caused by wildfires. Other environmental factors (CO2 fertilization, ozone pollution, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, timber harvest, agriculture) are estimated to have relatively small effects on terrestrial DOC loading to Arctic rivers. The effects of the various environmental factors on terrestrial carbon dynamics have both offset and enhanced concurrent effects on hydrology to influence terrestrial DOC loading and may be changing the relative importance of terrestrial carbon dynamics on this carbon flux. Improvements in simulating terrestrial DOC loading to pan-Arctic rivers in the future will require better information on the production and consumption of DOC within the soil profile, the transfer of DOC from land to headwater streams, the spatial distribution of precipitation and its temporal trends, carbon dynamics of larch-dominated ecosystems in eastern Siberia, and the role of industrial organic effluents on carbon budgets of rivers in western Russia.

Seagrass habitat metabolism increases short-term extremes and long-term offset of CO2 under future ocean acidification.

PubMed

Pacella, Stephen R; Brown, Cheryl A; Waldbusser, George G; Labiosa, Rochelle G; Hales, Burke

2018-04-10

The role of rising atmospheric CO 2 in modulating estuarine carbonate system dynamics remains poorly characterized, likely due to myriad processes driving the complex chemistry in these habitats. We reconstructed the full carbonate system of an estuarine seagrass habitat for a summer period of 2.5 months utilizing a combination of time-series observations and mechanistic modeling, and quantified the roles of aerobic metabolism, mixing, and gas exchange in the observed dynamics. The anthropogenic CO 2 burden in the habitat was estimated for the years 1765-2100 to quantify changes in observed high-frequency carbonate chemistry dynamics. The addition of anthropogenic CO 2 alters the thermodynamic buffer factors (e.g., the Revelle factor) of the carbonate system, decreasing the seagrass habitat's ability to buffer natural carbonate system fluctuations. As a result, the most harmful carbonate system indices for many estuarine organisms [minimum pH T , minimum Ω arag , and maximum pCO 2(s.w.) ] change up to 1.8×, 2.3×, and 1.5× more rapidly than the medians for each parameter, respectively. In this system, the relative benefits of the seagrass habitat in locally mitigating ocean acidification increase with the higher atmospheric CO 2 levels predicted toward 2100. Presently, however, these mitigating effects are mixed due to intense diel cycling of CO 2 driven by aerobic metabolism. This study provides estimates of how high-frequency pH T , Ω arag , and pCO 2(s.w.) dynamics are altered by rising atmospheric CO 2 in an estuarine habitat, and highlights nonlinear responses of coastal carbonate parameters to ocean acidification relevant for water quality management.

Seagrass habitat metabolism increases short-term extremes and long-term offset of CO2 under future ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacella, Stephen R.; Brown, Cheryl A.; Waldbusser, George G.; Labiosa, Rochelle G.; Hales, Burke

2018-04-01

The role of rising atmospheric CO2 in modulating estuarine carbonate system dynamics remains poorly characterized, likely due to myriad processes driving the complex chemistry in these habitats. We reconstructed the full carbonate system of an estuarine seagrass habitat for a summer period of 2.5 months utilizing a combination of time-series observations and mechanistic modeling, and quantified the roles of aerobic metabolism, mixing, and gas exchange in the observed dynamics. The anthropogenic CO2 burden in the habitat was estimated for the years 1765–2100 to quantify changes in observed high-frequency carbonate chemistry dynamics. The addition of anthropogenic CO2 alters the thermodynamic buffer factors (e.g., the Revelle factor) of the carbonate system, decreasing the seagrass habitat’s ability to buffer natural carbonate system fluctuations. As a result, the most harmful carbonate system indices for many estuarine organisms [minimum pHT, minimum Ωarag, and maximum pCO2(s.w.)] change up to 1.8×, 2.3×, and 1.5× more rapidly than the medians for each parameter, respectively. In this system, the relative benefits of the seagrass habitat in locally mitigating ocean acidification increase with the higher atmospheric CO2 levels predicted toward 2100. Presently, however, these mitigating effects are mixed due to intense diel cycling of CO2 driven by aerobic metabolism. This study provides estimates of how high-frequency pHT, Ωarag, and pCO2(s.w.) dynamics are altered by rising atmospheric CO2 in an estuarine habitat, and highlights nonlinear responses of coastal carbonate parameters to ocean acidification relevant for water quality management.

Carbon emissions risk map from deforestation in the tropical Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ometto, J.; Soler, L. S.; Assis, T. D.; Oliveira, P. V.; Aguiar, A. P.

2011-12-01

Assis, Pedro Valle This work aims to estimate the carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon associated to the risk assessment of future land use change. The emissions are estimated by incorporating temporal deforestation dynamics, accounting for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity in the region, as well secondary forest growth dynamic in abandoned areas. The land cover change model that supported the risk assessment of deforestation, was run based on linear regressions. This method takes into account spatial heterogeneity of deforestation as the spatial variables adopted to fit the final regression model comprise: environmental aspects, economic attractiveness, accessibility and land tenure structure. After fitting a suitable regression models for each land cover category, the potential of each cell to be deforested (25x25km and 5x5 km of resolution) in the near future was used to calculate the risk assessment of land cover change. The carbon emissions model combines high-resolution new forest clear-cut mapping and four alternative sources of spatial information on biomass distribution for different vegetation types. The risk assessment map of CO2 emissions, was obtained by crossing the simulation results of the historical land cover changes to a map of aboveground biomass contained in the remaining forest. This final map represents the risk of CO2 emissions at 25x25km and 5x5 km until 2020, under a scenario of carbon emission reduction target.

Climate and Management Controls on Forest Growth and Forest Carbon Balance in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelsey, Katharine Cashman

Climate change is resulting in a number of rapid changes in forests worldwide. Forests comprise a critical component of the global carbon cycle, and therefore climate-induced changes in forest carbon balance have the potential to create a feedback within the global carbon cycle and affect future trajectories of climate change. In order to further understanding of climate-driven changes in forest carbon balance, I (1) develop a method to improve spatial estimates forest carbon stocks, (2) investigate the effect of climate change and forest management actions on forest recovery and carbon balance following disturbance, and (3) explore the relationship between climate and forest growth, and identify climate-driven trends in forest growth through time, within San Juan National Forest in southwest Colorado, USA. I find that forest carbon estimates based on texture analysis from LandsatTM imagery improve regional forest carbon maps, and this method is particularly useful for estimating carbon stocks in forested regions affected by disturbance. Forest recovery from disturbance is also a critical component of future forest carbon stocks, and my results indicate that both climate and forest management actions have important implications for forest recovery and carbon dynamics following disturbance. Specifically, forest treatments that use woody biomass removed from the forest for electricity production can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere, but climate driven changes in fire severity and forest recovery can have the opposite effect on forest carbon stocks. In addition to the effects of disturbance and recovery on forest condition, I also find that climate change is decreasing rates of forest growth in some species, likely in response to warming summer temperatures. These growth declines could result in changes of vegetation composition, or in extreme cases, a shift in vegetation type that would alter forest carbon storage. This work provides insight into both current and future changes in forest carbon balance as a consequence of climate change and forest management in the western US.

[Review of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)].

PubMed

Che, Ming-Liang; Chen, Bao-Zhang; Wang, Ying; Guo, Xiang-Yun

2014-01-01

Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) is an important and efficient tool for study on the terrestrial carbon circle processes and vegetation dynamics. This paper reviewed the development history of DGVMs, introduced the basic structure of DGVMs, and the outlines of several world-widely used DGVMs, including CLM-DGVM, LPJ, IBIS and SEIB. The shortages of the description of dynamic vegetation mechanisms in the current DGVMs were proposed, including plant functional types (PFT) scheme, vegetation competition, disturbance, and phenology. Then the future research directions of DGVMs were pointed out, i. e. improving the PFT scheme, refining the vegetation dynamic mechanism, and implementing a model inter-comparison project.

Carbonate sedimentology of Seribu Islands patch reef complex: a literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utami, D. A.; Hakim, A. R.

2018-02-01

Many oil and gas reservoirs in the world are reserved in fossil carbonate sediment. Knowledge of modern carbonate sedimentology is important for a better understanding of ancient carbonate sedimentation. Equatorial coral reefs comprise almost half of the world coral reef production, and yet their dynamics, distributions, and cycles are still not well understood. Contrary to their subtropical counterpart, South East Asian carbonate system is known to be strongly influenced by the combination of oceanographic and climatic conditions. Hence carbonate sediments in the tropics have a distinct depositional system, and ought to be treated differently since common distribution models were developed from the (sub-tropical) Atlantic and Pacific regions. This paper systematically summarizes carbonate sediment studies in Seribu Islands and its dominant oceanographic configuration to provide insights and a sense of research direction in the future.

One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

2013-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of future climate mitigation strategies. We find substantial effects on key integrated assessment projections including the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology.

Carbonate hosted fault rocks: A review of structural and microstructural characteristic with implications for seismicity in the upper crust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delle Piane, Claudio; Clennell, M. Ben; Keller, Joao V. A.; Giwelli, Ausama; Luzin, Vladimir

2017-10-01

The structure, frictional properties and permeability of faults within carbonate rocks exhibit a dynamic interplay that controls both seismicity and the exchange of fluid between different crustal levels. Here we review field and experimental studies focused on the characterization of fault zones in carbonate rocks with the aim of identifying the microstructural indicators of rupture nucleation and seismic slip. We highlight results from experimental research linked to observations on exhumed fault zones in carbonate rocks. From the analysis of these accumulated results we identify the meso and microstructural deformation styles in carbonates rocks and link them to the lithology of the protolith and their potential as seismic indicators. Although there has been significant success in the laboratory reproduction of deformation structures observed in the field, the range of slip rates and dynamic friction under which most of the potential seismic indicators is formed in the laboratory urges caution when using them as a diagnostic for seismic slip. We finally outline what we think are key topics for future research that would lead to a more in-depth understanding of the record of seismic slip in carbonate rocks.

Simulation of RCC Crack Growth Due to Carbon Oxidation in High-Temperature Gas Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Titov, E. V.; Levin, D. A.; Picetti, Donald J.; Anderson, Brian P.

2009-01-01

The carbon wall oxidation technique coupled with a CFD technique was employed to study the flow in the expanding crack channel caused by the oxidation of the channel carbon walls. The recessing 3D surface morphing procedure was developed and tested in comparison with the arcjet experimental results. The multi-block structured adaptive meshing was used to model the computational domain changes due to the wall recession. Wall regression rates for a reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) samples, that were tested in a high enthalpy arcjet environment, were computationally obtained and used to assess the channel expansion. The test geometry and flow conditions render the flow regime as the transitional to continuum, therefore Navier-Stokes gas dynamic approach with the temperature jump and velocity slip correction to the boundary conditions was used. The modeled mechanism for wall material loss was atomic oxygen reaction with bare carbon. The predicted channel growth was found to agree with arcjet observations. Local gas flow field results were found to affect the oxidation rate in a manner that cannot be predicted by previous mass loss correlations. The method holds promise for future modeling of materials gas-dynamic interactions for hypersonic flight.

Microbial processes in marine ecosystem models: state of the art and future prospective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polimene, L.; Butenschon, M.; Blackford, J.; Allen, I.

2012-12-01

Heterotrophic bacteria play a key role in the marine biogeochemistry being the main consumer of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and the main producer of carbon dioxide (CO2) by respiration. Quantifying the carbon and energy fluxes within bacteria (i.e. production, respiration, overflow metabolism etc.) is therefore crucial for the assessment of the global ocean carbon and nutrient cycles. Consequently, the description of bacteria dynamic in ecosystem models is a key (although challenging) issue which cannot be overlooked if we want to properly simulate the marine environment. We present an overview of the microbial processes described in the European Sea Regional Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), a state of the art biogeochemical model resolving carbon and nutrient cycles (N, P, Si and Fe) within the low trophic levels (up to mesozooplankton) of the marine ecosystem. The description of the theoretical assumptions and philosophy underpinning the ERSEM bacteria sub-model will be followed by the presentation of some case studies highlighting the relevance of resolving microbial processes in the simulation of ecosystem dynamics at a local scale. Recent results concerning the implementation of ERSEM on a global ocean domain will be also presented. This latter exercise includes a comparison between simulations carried out with the full bacteria sub-model and simulations carried out with an implicit parameterization of bacterial activity. The results strongly underline the importance of explicitly resolved bacteria in the simulation of global carbon fluxes. Finally, a summary of the future developments along with issues still open on the topic will be presented and discussed.

Microbial and biogeochemical dynamics in glacier forefields are sensitive to century-scale climate and anthropogenic change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, James A.; Anesio, Alexandre M.; Arndt, Sandra

2017-04-01

The recent retreat of glaciers and ice sheets as a result of global warming exposes forefield soils that are rapidly colonised by microbes. These ecosystems are dominant in high-latitude carbon and nutrient cycles as microbial activity drives biogeochemical transformations within these newly exposed soils. Despite this, little is known about the response of these emerging ecosystems and associated biogeochemical cycles to projected changes in environmental factors due to human impacts. Here, we applied the model SHIMMER to quantitatively explore the sensitivity of biogeochemical dynamics in the forefield of Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard, to future changes in climate and anthropogenic forcings including soil temperature, snow cover, and nutrient and organic substrate deposition. Model results indicated that the rapid warming of the Arctic, as well as an increased deposition of organic carbon and nutrients, may impact primary microbial colonisers in Arctic soils. Warming and increased snow-free conditions resulted in enhanced bacterial production and an accumulation of biomass that was sustained throughout 200 years of soil development. Nitrogen deposition stimulated growth during the first 50 years of soil development following exposure. Increased deposition of organic carbon sustained higher rates of bacterial production and heterotrophic respiration leading to decreases in net ecosystem production and thus net CO2 efflux from soils. Pioneer microbial communities were particularly susceptible to future changes. All future climate simulations encouraged a switch from allochthonously-dominated young soils (<40 years) to microbially-dominated older soils, due to enhanced heterotrophic degradation of organic matter. Critically, this drove remineralisation and increased nutrient availability. Overall, we show that human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels and the enhanced deposition of nitrogen and organic carbon, has the potential to considerably affect the biogeochemical development of recently exposed Arctic soils in the present day and for centuries into the future. These effects must be acknowledged when attempting to make accurate predictions of the future fate of Arctic soils that are exposed over large expanses of presently ice-covered regions.

Simulation of Drought-induced Tree Mortality Using a New Individual and Hydraulic Trait-based Model (S-TEDy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, T.; Gangodagamage, C.; Ale, S.; Frazier, A. G.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kumagai, T.; Nakai, T.; Sato, H.

2017-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

A Multiscale Simulation Framework to Investigate Hydrobiogeochemical Processes in the Groundwater-Surface Water Interaction Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheibe, T. D.; Yang, X.; Song, X.; Chen, X.; Hammond, G. E.; Song, H. S.; Hou, Z.; Murray, C. J.; Tartakovsky, A. M.; Tartakovsky, G.; Yang, X.; Zachara, J. M.

2016-12-01

Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

Microbial models with data-driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change.

PubMed

Hararuk, Oleksandra; Smith, Matthew J; Luo, Yiqi

2015-06-01

Long-term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data-constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC, whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2-pool model) and 11% (4-pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2-pool microbial model. The 4-pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Formulating Energy Policies Related to Fossil Fuel Use: Critical Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Cycle

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Post, W. M.; Dale, V. H.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Mann, L. K.; Mulholland, P. J.; O`Neill, R. V.; Peng, T. -H.; Farrell, M. P.

1990-02-01

The global carbon cycle is the dynamic interaction among the earth's carbon sources and sinks. Four reservoirs can be identified, including the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and sediments. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by characteristics of carbon fluxes among major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle. The objective of this paper is to document the knowns, and unknowns and uncertainties associated with key questions that if answered will increase the understanding of the portion of past, present, and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} attributable to fossil fuel burning. Documented atmospheric increases in CO{sub 2} levels are thought to result primarily from fossil fuel use and, perhaps, deforestation. However, the observed atmospheric CO{sub 2} increase is less than expected from current understanding of the global carbon cycle because of poorly understood interactions among the major carbon reservoirs.

Nanostructured carbon and carbon nanocomposites for electrochemical energy storage applications.

PubMed

Su, Dang Sheng; Schlögl, Robert

2010-02-22

Electrochemical energy storage is one of the important technologies for a sustainable future of our society, in times of energy crisis. Lithium-ion batteries and supercapacitors with their high energy or power densities, portability, and promising cycling life are the cores of future technologies. This Review describes some materials science aspects on nanocarbon-based materials for these applications. Nanostructuring (decreasing dimensions) and nanoarchitecturing (combining or assembling several nanometer-scale building blocks) are landmarks in the development of high-performance electrodes for with long cycle lifes and high safety. Numerous works reviewed herein have shown higher performances for such electrodes, but mostly give diverse values that show no converging tendency towards future development. The lack of knowledge about interface processes and defect dynamics of electrodes, as well as the missing cooperation between material scientists, electrochemists, and battery engineers, are reasons for the currently widespread trial-and-error strategy of experiments. A concerted action between all of these disciplines is a prerequisite for the future development of electrochemical energy storage devices.

Parameterization of Nitrogen Limitation for a Dynamic Ecohydrological Model: a Case Study from the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastola, S.; Bras, R. L.

2017-12-01

Feedbacks between vegetation and the soil nutrient cycle are important in ecosystems where nitrogen limits plant growth, and consequently influences the carbon balance in the plant-soil system. However, many biosphere models do not include such feedbacks, because interactions between carbon and the nitrogen cycle can be complex, and remain poorly understood. In this study we coupled a nitrogen cycle model with an eco-hydrological model by using the concept of carbon cost economics. This concept accounts for different "costs" to the plant of acquiring nitrogen via different pathways. This study builds on tRIBS-VEGGIE, a spatially explicit hydrological model coupled with a model of photosynthesis, stomatal resistance, and energy balance, by combining it with a model of nitrogen recycling. Driven by climate and spatially explicit data of soils, vegetation and topography, the model (referred to as tRIBS-VEGGIE-CN) simulates the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in the soil-plant system; the dynamics of vegetation; and different components of the hydrological cycle. The tRIBS-VEGGIE-CN is applied in a humid tropical watershed at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory (LCZO). The region is characterized by high availability and cycling of nitrogen, high soil respiration rates, and large carbon stocks.We drive the model under contemporary CO2 and hydro-climatic forcing and compare results to a simulation under doubling CO2 and a range of future climate scenarios. The results with parameterization of nitrogen limitation based on carbon cost economics show that the carbon cost of the acquisition of nitrogen is 14% of the net primary productivity (NPP) and the N uptake cost for different pathways vary over a large range depending on leaf nitrogen content, turnover rates of carbon in soil and nitrogen cycling processes. Moreover, the N fertilization simulation experiment shows that the application of N fertilizer does not significantly change the simulated NPP. Furthermore, an experiment with doubling of the CO2 concentration level shows a significant increase of the NPP and turnover of plant tissues. The simulation with future climate scenarios shows consistent decrease in NPP but the uncertainties in projected NPP arising from selection of climate model and scenario is large.

Understanding the interaction between wild fire and vegetation distribution within the NCAR CESM framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, H.; Kim, Y.; Kim, H. J.

2017-12-01

Every year wild fire brings about 400Mha of land burned therefore 2Pg of carbon emissions from the surface occur. In this way fire not only affects the carbon circulation but also has an effect on the terrestrial ecosystems. This study aims to understand role of fire on the geographic vegetation distribution and the terrestrial carbon balances within the NCAR CESM framework, specifically with the CLM-BGC and CLM-BGC-DV. Global climate data from Climate Research Unit (CRU)-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data ranging from 1901 to 2010 are used to drive the land models. First, by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the CLM-BGC-DV, the fire impacts in dynamic vegetation are quantified by the fractional land areas of the different plant functional types. In addition, we examine how changes in vegetation distribution affect the total sum of the burned areas and the carbon balances. This study would provide the limits of and suggestions for the fire and dynamic vegetation modules of the CLM-BGC. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

Two years of CarboPerm: achievements and further steps of an interdisciplinary Russian-German project on the formation, turnover and release of carbon in Siberian permafrost landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubrzycki, S.

2015-12-01

Permafrost-affected soils of the northern hemisphere have accumulated large pools of soil organic carbon (SOC) since continuous low temperatures in the permafrost prevented organic matter (OM) decomposition. According to recent estimates these soils contain 1300 ± 200 Pg of SOC, or about twice as much the carbon within the global vegetation. Rising arctic temperatures will likely result in increased permafrost thawing with the consequence of increased mobilization and degradation of formerly frozen OM. This degradation process will presumably result in an increased formation of trace gases such as methane and carbon dioxide which can be released to the atmosphere. Rising trace gas concentrations due to permafrost thawing would thereby induce a positive feedback on climate warming. CarboPerm, is a joint German-Russian research project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. It comprises multi-disciplinary investigations on the formation, turnover and release of SOC in Siberian permafrost. It aims to gain increased understanding of how permafrost-affected landscapes will respond to global warming and how this response will influence the local, regional and global trace gas balance. CarboPerm strengthens permafrost research in underrepresented areas which are hardly accessible to international researchers. The obtained results improve our understanding of the future development of the sensitive and economically relevant arctic permafrost regions. With this contribution we want to inform the interested community about the new knowledge resulting from results of all scientific work packages: (i) the origin, properties, and dynamics of fossil carbon, (ii) the age and quality of organic matter, (iii) the recent carbon dynamics in permafrost landscapes, (iv) the microbial transformation of organic carbon in permafrost, and (v) process-driven modeling of soil carbon dynamics in permafrost areas.

Current and Projected Carbon Dynamics in US Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogle, S. M.; Paustian, K.; Zhang, Y.; Kent, J.; Gurung, R.; Klotz, R.

2016-12-01

Agricultural lands occur across a variety of landscapes in the United States, and carbon dynamics are largely controlled by management decisions along with edaphic characteristics, climate and other environmental drivers. Due to the influence of management, there is potential to sequester carbon in soils with adoption of conservation practices, such as setting aside degraded land from production, limiting tillage disturbance, enhancing crop production with higher yielding varieties, planting cover crops, and restoring wetlands where they have been drained for crop production. In 2010, the level of sequestration in mineral soils across US croplands was 48 million metric tonnes CO2 equivalent, which is down from the high during the past 25 years of 90 million metric tonnes CO2 equivalent. In contrast, drained wetlands that are used for crop production were emitting 22.1 million metric tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2010. In the short term, restoring drained wetlands would decrease CO2emissions to the atmosphere, and even with the additional CH4 emissions from restored wetlands, there would an overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from these lands. In turn, this would make a significant contribution to the USDA Climate Smart Agriculture Plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 120 million metric tonnes CO2 equivalent in support of the Paris Agreement. The potential to sequester carbon in the future will also be impacted by climate change, in addition to the management decisions of land managers. We simulated future carbon dynamics through 2060 based on climate change projections for RCP 2.5, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, with and without CO2 fertilization effects. We are using the results as input to a general equilibrium model for the agricultural economic sector to better understand the economic consequences of climate change and the potential for greenhouse gas mitigation. By evaluating the influence of climate change and economic welfare, our study is providing a basis to understand the potential long-term contribution of carbon sequestration in support of a Climate Smart Agriculture Program in the United States.

Fire and reduced vigor facilitate vegetation shifts: MC2 results for the conterminous US with CMIP5 climate futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.; Ferschweiler, K.; Baker, B.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

Climate variability and a warming trend during the 21st century ensures fuel build-up and episodic catastrophic wildfires. We used downscaled (2.5 arcmin) CMIP5 climate futures from 20 models under RCP 8.5 to run the dynamic global vegetation model MC2 over the conterminous US and identify key drivers of land cover change. We show regional and temporal differences in the magnitude of projected C losses due to fire over the 21st century. We also look at the vigor (NPP/LAI) of forest lands and estimate the loss in C capture due to declines in production as well as the increase in heterotrophic respiration due to increased mortality. We compare simulated the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial biomes and the risk of carbon losses through disturbance. We quantify uncertainty in model results by showing the distribution of possible future impacts under 20 futures. We explore the effects of land use and highlight the challenges we met to simulate credible transient management practices throughout the 20th century and into the future.

Forecasting Responses of a Northern Peatland Carbon Cycle to Elevated CO2 and a Gradient of Experimental Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Jiang; Huang, Yuanyuan; Ma, Shuang; Stacy, Mark; Shi, Zheng; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Hanson, Paul J.; Luo, Yiqi

2018-03-01

The ability to forecast ecological carbon cycling is imperative to land management in a world where past carbon fluxes are no longer a clear guide in the Anthropocene. However, carbon-flux forecasting has not been practiced routinely like numerical weather prediction. This study explored (1) the relative contributions of model forcing data and parameters to uncertainty in forecasting flux- versus pool-based carbon cycle variables and (2) the time points when temperature and CO2 treatments may cause statistically detectable differences in those variables. We developed an online forecasting workflow (Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD)), which facilitates iterative data-model integration. EcoPAD automates data transfer from sensor networks, data assimilation, and ecological forecasting. We used the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Experiments data collected from 2011 to 2014 to constrain the parameters in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, forecast carbon cycle responses to elevated CO2 and a gradient of warming from 2015 to 2024, and specify uncertainties in the model output. Our results showed that data assimilation substantially reduces forecasting uncertainties. Interestingly, we found that the stochasticity of future external forcing contributed more to the uncertainty of forecasting future dynamics of C flux-related variables than model parameters. However, the parameter uncertainty primarily contributes to the uncertainty in forecasting C pool-related response variables. Given the uncertainties in forecasting carbon fluxes and pools, our analysis showed that statistically different responses of fast-turnover pools to various CO2 and warming treatments were observed sooner than slow-turnover pools. Our study has identified the sources of uncertainties in model prediction and thus leads to improve ecological carbon cycling forecasts in the future.

Quantifying and predicting historical and future patterns of carbon fluxes from the North American Continent to Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, H.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.; Yang, J.; Yao, Y.; Pan, S.; Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; He, R.; Najjar, R. G.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.; Hofmann, E. E.

2017-12-01

Carbon export through river channels to coastal waters is a fundamental component of the global carbon cycle. Changes in the terrestrial environment, both natural (e.g., climatic change, enriched CO2 concentration, and elevated ozone concentration) and anthropogenic (e.g, deforestation, cropland expansion, and urbanization) have greatly altered carbon production, stocks, decomposition, movement and export from land to river and ocean systems. However, the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of lateral carbon fluxes from land to oceans and the underlying mechanisms responsible for these fluxes remain far from certain. Here we applied a process-based land model with explicit representation of carbon processes in stream and rivers (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model: DLEM 2.0) to examine how changes in climate, land use, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition have affected the carbon fluxes from North American continent to Ocean during 1980-2015. Our simulated results indicated that terrestrial carbon export shows substantially spatial and temporal variability. Of the five sub-regions (Arctic coast, Pacific coast, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic coast, and Great lakes), the Arctic sub-region provides the highest DOC flux, whereas the Gulf of Mexico sub-region provided the highest DIC flux. However, terrestrial carbon export to the arctic oceans showed increasing trends for both DOC and DIC, whereas DOC and DIC export to the Gulf of Mexico decreased in the recent decades. Future pattern of riverine carbon fluxes would be largely dependent on the climate change and land use scenarios.

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

How fast does water flow in carbon nanotubes?

PubMed

Kannam, Sridhar Kumar; Todd, B D; Hansen, J S; Daivis, Peter J

2013-03-07

The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we review the existing literature on flow rates of water in carbon nanotubes. Data for the slip length which characterizes the flow rate are scattered over 5 orders of magnitude for nanotubes of diameter 0.81-10 nm. Second, we precisely compute the slip length using equilibrium molecular dynamics (EMD) simulations, from which the interfacial friction between water and carbon nanotubes can be found, and also via external field driven non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations (NEMD). We discuss some of the issues in simulation studies which may be reasons for the large disagreements reported. By using the EMD method friction coefficient to determine the slip length, we overcome the limitations of NEMD simulations. In NEMD simulations, for each tube we apply a range of external fields to check the linear response of the fluid to the field and reliably extrapolate the results for the slip length to values of the field corresponding to experimentally accessible pressure gradients. Finally, we comment on several issues concerning water flow rates in carbon nanotubes which may lead to some future research directions in this area.

High-resolution data on the impact of warming on soil CO2 efflux from an Asian monsoon forest

PubMed Central

Liang, Naishen; Teramoto, Munemasa; Takagi, Masahiro; Zeng, Jiye

2017-01-01

This paper describes a project for evaluation of global warming’s impacts on soil carbon dynamics in Japanese forest ecosystems. We started a soil warming experiment in late 2008 in a 55-year-old evergreen broad-leaved forest at the boundary between the subtropical and warm-temperate biomes in southern Japan. We used infrared carbon-filament heat lamps to increase soil temperature by about 2.5 °C at a depth of 5 cm and continuously recorded CO2 emission from the soil surface using a multichannel automated chamber system. Here, we present details of the experimental processes and datasets for the CO2 emission rate, soil temperature, and soil moisture from control, trenched, and warmed trenched plots. The long term of the study and its high resolution make the datasets meaningful for use in or development of coupled climate-ecosystem models to tune their dynamic behaviour as well as to provide mean parameters for decomposition of soil organic carbon to support future predictions of soil carbon sequestration. PMID:28291228

Disturbance and the carbon balance of US forests: A quantitative review of impacts from harvests, fires, insects, and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Christopher A.; Gu, Huan; MacLean, Richard; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Collatz, G. James

2016-08-01

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y- 1 in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y- 1), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Christopher A.; Gu, Huan; MacLean, Richard; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Collatz, G. James

2016-01-01

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

THE BIOLOGICAL RESPONSE OF A SMALL CATCHMENT TO CLEAR-CUTTING

EPA Science Inventory

We modified a Plant-Soil Model (Stieglitz et al, 2006, GBC) that simulates the effects of a disturbance on stocks and fluxes of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in terrestrial ecosystems. The model was used to examine past, present and future changes in C storage and C-N dynamics at ...

Dynamics of soil carbon, nitrogen and soil respiration in farmer’s field with conservation agriculture Siem Reap, Cambodia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The years of intensive tillage in many countries, including Cambodia, have caused significant decline in agriculture’s natural resources that could threaten the future of agricultural production and sustainability worldwide. Long-term tillage system and site-specific crop management can affect chang...

Mechanistic Representation of Soil C Dynamics: for Arctic Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, D.; Riley, W. J.; Bisht, G.

2013-12-01

Arctic and sub-Arctic soils store vast amounts of carbon, approximately 1700 billion metric tones of frozen organic carbon. This carbon is susceptible to release to the atmosphere due to environmental changes (e.g., rapidly evolving landscape, warming); however, the mechanisms responsible for this susceptibility of soil organic matter (SOM) are not well understood, and uncertainties exist in terms of their representation in Earth System models. The representation of SOM dynamics in Earth System Models is critical for future climate prediction. To investigate the impacts of various physical (e.g., multi-phase transport, sorption, desorption, temperature), chemical (e.g., pH), and biological (e.g., microbial activity, enzyme dynamics) factors on SOM stability, we have developed CENTURY-like (describing labile and recalcitrant pools) and complex (describing multiple archetypal polymers and monomers C substrate groups) reaction networks. These reaction networks are integrated in a three-dimensional, multi-phase reactive transport solver (PFLOTRAN) and include representations of bacterial and fungal activity as well as population dynamics, gaseous and aqueous advection, and adsorption and desorption. We test and compare these reaction networks in PFLOTRAN to accurately predict depth-resolved soil organic matter (SOM) in the subsurface. We present results showing impacts of abiotic controls (e.g., surface interactions and temperature) on the long-term stabilization of SOM under permafrost conditions.

Historical warming reduced due to enhanced land carbon uptake.

PubMed

Shevliakova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J; Malyshev, Sergey; Krasting, John P; Hurtt, George C; Pacala, Stephen W

2013-10-15

Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of enhanced vegetation growth under future elevated atmospheric CO2 for 21st century climate warming. Surprisingly no study has completed an analogous assessment for the historical period, during which emissions of greenhouse gases increased rapidly and land-use changes (LUC) dramatically altered terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory comprehensive Earth System Model ESM2G and a reconstruction of the LUC, we estimate that enhanced vegetation growth has lowered the historical atmospheric CO2 concentration by 85 ppm, avoiding an additional 0.31 ± 0.06 °C warming. We demonstrate that without enhanced vegetation growth the total residual terrestrial carbon flux (i.e., the net land flux minus LUC flux) would be a source of 65-82 Gt of carbon (GtC) to atmosphere instead of the historical residual carbon sink of 186-192 GtC, a carbon saving of 251-274 GtC.

Historical Carbon Dioxide Emissions Caused by Land-Use Changes are Possibly Larger than Assumed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Pongratz, J.; Stocker, B. D.; Ciais, P.; Poulter, B.; Bayer, A. D.; Bondeau, A.; Calle, L.; Chini, L. P.;

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change.

PubMed

Fan, Zhaosheng; David McGuire, Anthony; Turetsky, Merritt R; Harden, Jennifer W; Michael Waddington, James; Kane, Evan S

2013-02-01

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO2 and CH4 could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process-based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS-TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005-2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water-table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO2 emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Quantifying Forest Ecosystem Services Tradeoff—Coupled Ecological and Economic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haff, P. K.; Ling, P. Y.

2015-12-01

Quantification of the effect of carbon-related forestland management activities on ecosystem services is difficult, because knowledge about the dynamics of coupled social-ecological systems is lacking. Different forestland management activities, such as various amount, timing, and methods of harvesting, and natural disturbances events, such as wind and fires, create shocks and uncertainties to the forest carbon dynamics. A spatially explicit model, Landis-ii, was used to model the forest succession for different harvest management scenarios at the Grandfather District, North Carolina. In addition to harvest, the model takes into account of the impact of natural disturbances, such as fire and insects, and species competition. The result shows the storage of carbon in standing biomass and in wood product for each species for each scenario. In this study, optimization is used to analyze the maximum profit and the number of tree species that each forest landowner can gain at different prices of carbon, roundwood, and interest rates for different harvest management scenarios. Time series of roundwood production of different types were estimated using remote sensing data. Econometric analysis is done to understand the possible interaction and relations between the production of different types of roundwood and roundwood prices, which can indicate the possible planting scheme that a forest owner may make. This study quantifies the tradeoffs between carbon sequestration, roundwood production, and forest species diversity not only from an economic perspective, but also takes into account of the forest succession mechanism in a species-diverse region. The resulting economic impact on the forest landowners is likely to influence their future planting decision, which in turn, will influence the species composition and future revenue of the landowners.

Contemporary carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems in the Southeastern Plains of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, S.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Kurtz, R.M.

2004-01-01

Quantifying carbon dynamics over large areas is frequently hindered by the lack of consistent, high-quality, spatially explicit land use and land cover change databases and appropriate modeling techniques. In this paper, we present a generic approach to address some of these challenges. Land cover change information in the Southeastern Plains ecoregion was derived from Landsat data acquired in 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 within 11 randomly located 20-km × 20-km sample blocks. Carbon dynamics within each of the sample blocks was simulated using the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS), capable of assimilating the variances and covariance of major input variables into simulations using an ensemble approach. Results indicate that urban and forest areas have been increasing, whereas agricultural land has been decreasing since 1973. Forest clear-cutting activity has intensified, more than doubling from 1973 to 2000. The Southeastern Plains has been acting as a carbon sink since 1973, with an average rate of 0.89 Mg C/ha/yr. Biomass, soil organic carbon (SOC), and harvested materials account for 56%, 34%, and 10% of the sink, respectively. However, the sink has declined continuously during the same period owing to forest aging in the northern part of the ecoregion and increased forest clear-cutting activities in the south. The relative contributions to the sink from SOC and harvested materials have increased, implying that these components deserve more study in the future. The methods developed here can be used to quantify the impacts of human management activities on the carbon cycle at landscape to global scales.

Modeling the influence of long term human-induced land use conversion on sediment fluxes and carbon dynamics at the catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchoms, Samuel; Van Oost, Kristof; Vanacker, Veerle

2014-05-01

Over the past 20 years, there has been increasing evidence of the strong impact of human activities on the landscape, specifically on soil erosion due to the removal of natural vegetation cover for agricultural and urban purposes. The results question the widespread hypothesis of a steady state landscape since it appears that the balance between soil production and erosion may be broken altering the interactions between chemical, physical and biological processes in both soil and landscape system. Yet, the relationship between this accelerated erosion and the carbon dynamics at the landscape scale remains an important area of investigation. Recent attempts to combine geomorphic models, soil redistribution and carbon dynamic has proved themselves valuable in term of supporting the importance of lateral fluxes as a crucial control of carbon dynamic at the landscape scale. We use the SPEROS LT model, a modified version of SPEROS-C which includes dynamic land use and soil physical properties, to assess the impact of historical land use conversion on sediment and carbon fluxes in the Dijle catchment. This particular location has experienced a significant human impact since the Roman period, undergoing heavy deforestation and expansion of agricultural lands followed by a period of abandonment. The last 400 to 500 years saw a dramatic increase in the intensity of land use conversion associated to population growth leading to forest cleaning and urbanization. Our main objective is to validate the combined geomorphic and soil carbon turnover process descriptions of the model. Historical land use proportions are based on existing literature estimations and spatial assignation of the land conversion relies on simple allocation rules based on criteria such as slope or soil texture. Land use scenarios are constructed for the last 2000 years. We confront the model results with observations and perform a sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that the general trends in sediment production and deposition, as well as soil carbon storage are well predicted by the model. We discuss the key-parameters of the model and the implications of past erosion-deposition for the future C budget of the Dijle catchment.

Dramatic Variability of the Carbonate System at a Temperate Coastal Ocean Site (Beaufort, North Carolina, USA) Is Regulated by Physical and Biogeochemical Processes on Multiple Timescales

PubMed Central

Johnson, Zackary I.; Wheeler, Benjamin J.; Blinebry, Sara K.; Carlson, Christina M.; Ward, Christopher S.; Hunt, Dana E.

2013-01-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from anthropogenic sources is acidifying marine environments resulting in potentially dramatic consequences for the physical, chemical and biological functioning of these ecosystems. If current trends continue, mean ocean pH is expected to decrease by ~0.2 units over the next ~50 years. Yet, there is also substantial temporal variability in pH and other carbon system parameters in the ocean resulting in regions that already experience change that exceeds long-term projected trends in pH. This points to short-term dynamics as an important layer of complexity on top of long-term trends. Thus, in order to predict future climate change impacts, there is a critical need to characterize the natural range and dynamics of the marine carbonate system and the mechanisms responsible for observed variability. Here, we present pH and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) at time intervals spanning 1 hour to >1 year from a dynamic, coastal, temperate marine system (Beaufort Inlet, Beaufort NC USA) to characterize the carbonate system at multiple time scales. Daily and seasonal variation of the carbonate system is largely driven by temperature, alkalinity and the balance between primary production and respiration, but high frequency change (hours to days) is further influenced by water mass movement (e.g. tides) and stochastic events (e.g. storms). Both annual (~0.3 units) and diurnal (~0.1 units) variability in coastal ocean acidity are similar in magnitude to 50 year projections of ocean acidity associated with increasing atmospheric CO2. The environmental variables driving these changes highlight the importance of characterizing the complete carbonate system rather than just pH. Short-term dynamics of ocean carbon parameters may already exert significant pressure on some coastal marine ecosystems with implications for ecology, biogeochemistry and evolution and this shorter term variability layers additive effects and complexity, including extreme values, on top of long-term trends in ocean acidification. PMID:24358377

Implications of elevated CO2 on pelagic carbon fluxes in an Arctic mesocosm study - an elemental mass balance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czerny, J.; Schulz, K. G.; Boxhammer, T.; Bellerby, R. G. J.; Büdenbender, J.; Engel, A.; Krug, S. A.; Ludwig, A.; Nachtigall, K.; Nondal, G.; Niehoff, B.; Silyakova, A.; Riebesell, U.

2013-05-01

Recent studies on the impacts of ocean acidification on pelagic communities have identified changes in carbon to nutrient dynamics with related shifts in elemental stoichiometry. In principle, mesocosm experiments provide the opportunity of determining temporal dynamics of all relevant carbon and nutrient pools and, thus, calculating elemental budgets. In practice, attempts to budget mesocosm enclosures are often hampered by uncertainties in some of the measured pools and fluxes, in particular due to uncertainties in constraining air-sea gas exchange, particle sinking, and wall growth. In an Arctic mesocosm study on ocean acidification applying KOSMOS (Kiel Off-Shore Mesocosms for future Ocean Simulation), all relevant element pools and fluxes of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus were measured, using an improved experimental design intended to narrow down the mentioned uncertainties. Water-column concentrations of particulate and dissolved organic and inorganic matter were determined daily. New approaches for quantitative estimates of material sinking to the bottom of the mesocosms and gas exchange in 48 h temporal resolution as well as estimates of wall growth were developed to close the gaps in element budgets. However, losses elements from the budgets into a sum of insufficiently determined pools were detected, and are principally unavoidable in mesocosm investigation. The comparison of variability patterns of all single measured datasets revealed analytic precision to be the main issue in determination of budgets. Uncertainties in dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrogen (DON) and particulate organic phosphorus (POP) were much higher than the summed error in determination of the same elements in all other pools. With estimates provided for all other major elemental pools, mass balance calculations could be used to infer the temporal development of DOC, DON and POP pools. Future elevated pCO2 was found to enhance net autotrophic community carbon uptake in two of the three experimental phases but did not significantly affect particle elemental composition. Enhanced carbon consumption appears to result in accumulation of dissolved organic carbon under nutrient-recycling summer conditions. This carbon over-consumption effect becomes evident from mass balance calculations, but was too small to be resolved by direct measurements of dissolved organic matter. Faster nutrient uptake by comparatively small algae at high CO2 after nutrient addition resulted in reduced production rates under future ocean CO2 conditions at the end of the experiment. This CO2 mediated shift towards smaller phytoplankton and enhanced cycling of dissolved matter restricted the development of larger phytoplankton, thus pushing the system towards a retention type food chain with overall negative effects on export potential.

Early land use and centennial scale changes in lake-water organic carbon prior to contemporary monitoring.

PubMed

Meyer-Jacob, Carsten; Tolu, Julie; Bigler, Christian; Yang, Handong; Bindler, Richard

2015-05-26

Organic carbon concentrations have increased in surface waters across parts of Europe and North America during the past decades, but the main drivers causing this phenomenon are still debated. A lack of observations beyond the last few decades inhibits a better mechanistic understanding of this process and thus a reliable prediction of future changes. Here we present past lake-water organic carbon trends inferred from sediment records across central Sweden that allow us to assess the observed increase on a centennial to millennial time scale. Our data show the recent increase in lake-water carbon but also that this increase was preceded by a landscape-wide, long-term decrease beginning already A.D. 1450-1600. Geochemical and biological proxies reveal that these dynamics coincided with an intensification of human catchment disturbance that decreased over the past century. Catchment disturbance was driven by the expansion and later cessation of widespread summer forest grazing and farming across central Scandinavia. Our findings demonstrate that early land use strongly affected past organic carbon dynamics and suggest that the influence of historical landscape utilization on contemporary changes in lake-water carbon levels has thus far been underestimated. We propose that past changes in land use are also a strong contributing factor in ongoing organic carbon trends in other regions that underwent similar comprehensive changes due to early cultivation and grazing over centuries to millennia.

Soil and vegetation parameter uncertainty on future terrestrial carbon sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kothavala, Z.; Felzer, B. S.

2013-12-01

We examine the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate at the centennial scale using an intermediate complexity Earth system climate model that includes the effects of dynamic vegetation and the global carbon cycle. We present a series of ensemble simulations to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated terrestrial carbon sinks to three key model parameters: (a) The temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition, (b) the upper temperature limits on the rate of photosynthesis, and (c) the nitrogen limitation of the maximum rate of carboxylation of Rubisco. We integrated the model in fully coupled mode for a 1200-year spin-up period, followed by a 300-year transient simulation starting at year 1800. Ensemble simulations were conducted varying each parameter individually and in combination with other variables. The results of the transient simulations show that terrestrial carbon uptake is very sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Changes in net primary productivity were most sensitive to the upper temperature limit on the rate of photosynthesis, which also had a dominant effect on overall land carbon trends; this is consistent with previous research that has shown the importance of climatic suppression of photosynthesis as a driver of carbon-climate feedbacks. Soil carbon generally decreased with increasing temperature, though the magnitude of this trend depends on both the net primary productivity changes and the temperature dependence of soil carbon decomposition. Vegetation carbon increased in some simulations, but this was not consistent across all configurations of model parameters. Comparing to global carbon budget observations, we identify the subset of model parameters which are consistent with observed carbon sinks; this serves to narrow considerably the future model projections of terrestrial carbon sink changes in comparison with the full model ensemble.

Will the use of a carbon tax for revenue generation produce an incentive to continue carbon emissions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rong; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

2017-05-01

Integrated assessment models are commonly used to generate optimal carbon prices based on an objective function that maximizes social welfare. Such models typically project an initially low carbon price that increases with time. This framework does not reflect the incentives of decision makers who are responsible for generating tax revenue. If a rising carbon price is to result in near-zero emissions, it must ultimately result in near-zero carbon tax revenue. That means that at some point, policy makers will be asked to increase the tax rate on carbon emissions to such an extent that carbon tax revenue will fall. Therefore, there is a risk that the use of a carbon tax to generate revenue could eventually create a perverse incentive to continue carbon emissions in order to provide a continued stream of carbon tax revenue. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) model, we provide evidence that this risk is not a concern for the immediate future but that a revenue-generating carbon tax could create this perverse incentive as time goes on. This incentive becomes perverse at about year 2085 under the default configuration of DICE, but the timing depends on a range of factors including the cost of climate damages and the cost of decarbonizing the global energy system. While our study is based on a schematic model, it highlights the importance of considering a broader spectrum of incentives in studies using more comprehensive integrated assessment models. Our study demonstrates that the use of a carbon tax for revenue generation could potentially motivate implementation of such a tax today, but this source of revenue generation risks motivating continued carbon emissions far into the future.

Historical and potential future impacts of extreme hydrological events on the Amazonian floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macedo, M.; Panday, P. K.; Coe, M. T.; Lefebvre, P.; Castello, L.

2015-12-01

The Amazonian floodplains and wetlands cover one fifth of the basin and are highly productive promoting diverse biological communities and sustaining human populations with fisheries. Seasonal inundation of the floodplains fluctuates in response to drought or extreme rainfall as observed in the recent droughts of 2005 and 2010 where river levels dropped to among the lowest recorded. We model and evaluate the historical (1940-2010) and projected future (2010-2100) impacts of droughts and floods on the floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics in the central Amazon using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrology Model and Biogeochemistry (THMB). Simulated discharge correlates well with observed discharges for tributaries originating in Brazil but underestimates basins draining regions in the non-Brazilian Amazon (Solimões, Japuŕa, Madeira, and Negro) by greater than 30%. A volume bias-correction from the simulated and observed runoff was used to correct the input precipitation across the major tributaries of the Amazon basin that drain the Andes. Simulated hydrological parameters (discharge, inundated area and river height) using corrected precipitation has a strong correlation with field measured discharge at gauging stations, surface water extent data (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) for inundation), and satellite radar altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data for 1992-1998 and ENVISAT data for 2002-2010). We also used an ensemble of model outputs participating in the IPCC AR5 to drive two sets of simulations with and without carbon dioxide fertilization for the 2006-2100 period, and evaluated the potential scale and variability of future changes in discharge and inundation dynamics due to the influences of climate change and vegetation response to carbon dioxide fertilization. Preliminary modeled results for future scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 indicate decreases in projected discharge and extent of inundated area on the mainstem Amazon by the late 21st century owing to influences of future climate change only.

The Implications of Growing Bioenergy Crops on Water Resources, Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, A. K.; Song, Y.; Kheshgi, H. S.

2016-12-01

What is the potential for the crops Corn, Miscanthus and switchgrass to meet future energy demands in the U.S.A., and would they mitigate climate change by offsetting fossil fuel greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? The large-scale cultivation of these bioenergy crops itself could also drive climate change through changes in albedo, evapotranspiration (ET), and GHG emissions. Whether these climate effects will mitigate or exacerbate climate change in the short- and long-term is uncertain. This uncertainty stems from our incomplete understanding of the effects of expanded bioenergy crop production on terrestrial water and energy balance, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and their interactions. This study aims to understand the implications of growing large-scale bioenergy crops on water resources, carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the United States using a data-modeling framework (ISAM) that we developed. Our study indicates that both Miscanthus and Cave-in-Rock switchgrass can attain high and stable yield over parts of the Midwest, however, this high production is attained at the cost of increased soil water loss as compared to current natural vegetation. Alamo switchgrass can attain high and stable yield in the southern US without significant influence on soil water quantity.

The formation of Cr2O3 nanoclusters over graphene sheet and carbon nanotubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dabaghmanesh, Samira; Neek-Amal, Mehdi; Partoens, Bart; Neyts, Erik C.

2017-11-01

Carbon supported metal oxide nanoparticles hold promise for various future applications in diverse areas including spintronics, catalysis and biomedicine. These applications, however, typically depend on the structure and morphology of the nanoparticles. In this contribution, we employ classical molecular dynamic simulations based on a recently developed force field to study the structural properties of Cr2O3 nanoclusters over graphene and carbon nanotubes. We observe that Cr2O3 nanoclusters tend to aggregate over both freestanding graphene and carbon nanotubes and form larger nanoclusters. These large nanoclusters are characterized by their worm-like shape with a lattice constant similar to that of bulk Cr2O3. We also investigate the structural deformation induced in graphene due to the presence of Cr2O3 nanoclusters.

Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices.

PubMed

Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H

2015-12-29

Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)-a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)-in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model's regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon-as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.

The role of forest disturbance in global forest mortality and terrestrial carbon fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugh, Thomas; Arneth, Almut; Smith, Benjamin; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Large-scale forest disturbance dynamics such as insect outbreaks, wind-throw and fires, along with anthropogenic disturbances such as logging, have been shown to turn forests from carbon sinks into intermittent sources, often quite dramatically so. There is also increasing evidence that disturbance regimes in many regions are changing as a result of climatic change and human land-management practices. But how these landscape-scale events fit into the wider picture of global tree mortality is not well understood. Do such events dominate global carbon turnover, or are their effects highly regional? How sensitive is global terrestrial carbon exchange to realistic changes in the occurrence rate of such disturbances? Here, we combine recent advances in global satellite observations of stand-replacing forest disturbances and in compilations of forest inventory data, with a global terrestrial ecosystem model which incorporates an explicit representation of the role of disturbance in forest dynamics. We find that stand-replacing disturbances account for a fraction of wood carbon turnover that varies spatially from less than 5% in the tropical rainforest to ca. 50% in the mid latitudes, and as much as 90% in some heavily-managed regions. We contrast the size of the land-atmosphere carbon flux due to this disturbance with other components of the terrestrial carbon budget. In terms of sensitivity, we find a quasi log-linear relationship of disturbance rate to total carbon storage. Relatively small changes in disturbance rates at all latitudes have marked effects on vegetation carbon storage, with potentially very substantial implications for the global terrestrial carbon sink. Our results suggest a surprisingly small effect of disturbance type on large-scale forest vegetation dynamics and carbon storage, with limited evidence of widespread increases in nitrogen limitation as a result of increasing future disturbance. However, the influence of disturbance type on soil carbon stocks is very large, illustrating the importance of further efforts to distinguish disturbance drivers at the global scale. Setting our knowledge of forest disturbance into the wider uncertainty in forest mortality processes generally, we offer a perspective for improving understanding of the role of disturbance in global forest carbon cycling.

Forest development and carbon dynamics after mountain pine beetle outbreaks

Treesearch

E. Matthew Hansen

2014-01-01

Mountain pine beetles periodically infest pine forests in western North America, killing many or most overstory pine stems. The surviving secondary stand structure, along with recruited seedlings, will form the future canopy. Thus, even-aged pine stands become multiaged and multistoried. The species composition of affected stands will depend on the presence of nonpines...

Terrestrial carbon turnover time constraints on future carbon cycle-climate feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, N.; Carvalhais, N.; Reichstein, M.

2017-12-01

Understanding the terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedback is essential to reduce the uncertainties resulting from the between model spread in prognostic simulations (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). One perspective is to investigate which factors control the variability of the mean residence times of carbon in the land surface, and how these may change in the future, consequently affecting the response of the terrestrial ecosystems to changes in climate as well as other environmental conditions. Carbon turnover time of the whole ecosystem is a dynamic parameter that represents how fast the carbon cycle circulates. Turnover time τ is an essential property for understanding the carbon exchange between the land and the atmosphere. Although current Earth System Models (ESMs), supported by GVMs for the description of the land surface, show a strong convergence in GPP estimates, but tend to show a wide range of simulated turnover times (Carvalhais, 2014). Thus, there is an emergent need of constraints on the projected response of the balance between terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon stock which will give us more certainty in response of carbon cycle to climate change. However, the difficulty of obtaining such a constraint is partly due to lack of observational data on temporal change of terrestrial carbon stock. Since more new datasets of carbon stocks such as SoilGrid (Hengl, et al., 2017) and fluxes such as GPP (Jung, et al., 2017) are available, improvement in estimating turnover time can be achieved. In addition, previous study ignored certain aspects such as the relationship between τ and nutrients, fires, etc. We would like to investigate τ and its role in carbon cycle by combining observatinoal derived datasets and state-of-the-art model simulations.

Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T; Reichstein, Markus

2014-10-09

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.

Responses of two nonlinear microbial models to warming and increased carbon input

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Y. P.; Jiang, J.; Chen-Charpentier, Benito

A number of nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition have been developed. Some of them have been applied globally but have yet to be shown to realistically represent soil carbon dynamics in the field. A thorough analysis of their key differences is needed to inform future model developments. In this paper, we compare two nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition: one based on reverse Michaelis–Menten kinetics (model A) and the other on regular Michaelis–Menten kinetics (model B). Using analytic approximations and numerical solutions, we find that the oscillatory responses of carbon pools to a small perturbation in theirmore » initial pool sizes dampen faster in model A than in model B. Soil warming always decreases carbon storage in model A, but in model B it predominantly decreases carbon storage in cool regions and increases carbon storage in warm regions. For both models, the CO 2 efflux from soil carbon decomposition reaches a maximum value some time after increased carbon input (as in priming experiments). This maximum CO 2 efflux (F max) decreases with an increase in soil temperature in both models. However, the sensitivity of F max to the increased amount of carbon input increases with soil temperature in model A but decreases monotonically with an increase in soil temperature in model B. These differences in the responses to soil warming and carbon input between the two nonlinear models can be used to discern which model is more realistic when compared to results from field or laboratory experiments. Lastly, these insights will contribute to an improved understanding of the significance of soil microbial processes in soil carbon responses to future climate change.« less

Responses of two nonlinear microbial models to warming and increased carbon input

DOE PAGES

Wang, Y. P.; Jiang, J.; Chen-Charpentier, Benito; ...

2016-02-18

A number of nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition have been developed. Some of them have been applied globally but have yet to be shown to realistically represent soil carbon dynamics in the field. A thorough analysis of their key differences is needed to inform future model developments. In this paper, we compare two nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition: one based on reverse Michaelis–Menten kinetics (model A) and the other on regular Michaelis–Menten kinetics (model B). Using analytic approximations and numerical solutions, we find that the oscillatory responses of carbon pools to a small perturbation in theirmore » initial pool sizes dampen faster in model A than in model B. Soil warming always decreases carbon storage in model A, but in model B it predominantly decreases carbon storage in cool regions and increases carbon storage in warm regions. For both models, the CO 2 efflux from soil carbon decomposition reaches a maximum value some time after increased carbon input (as in priming experiments). This maximum CO 2 efflux (F max) decreases with an increase in soil temperature in both models. However, the sensitivity of F max to the increased amount of carbon input increases with soil temperature in model A but decreases monotonically with an increase in soil temperature in model B. These differences in the responses to soil warming and carbon input between the two nonlinear models can be used to discern which model is more realistic when compared to results from field or laboratory experiments. Lastly, these insights will contribute to an improved understanding of the significance of soil microbial processes in soil carbon responses to future climate change.« less

Biological and land use controls on the isotopic composition of aquatic carbon in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voss, Britta M.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Aiken, George R.; Striegl, Robert G.

2017-08-01

Riverine ecosystems receive organic matter (OM) from terrestrial sources, internally produce new OM, and biogeochemically cycle and modify organic and inorganic carbon. Major gaps remain in the understanding of the relationships between carbon sources and processing in river systems. Here we synthesize isotopic, elemental, and molecular properties of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) system above Wabasha, MN, including the main stem Mississippi River and its four major tributaries (Minnesota, upper Mississippi, St. Croix, and Chippewa Rivers). Our goal was to elucidate how biological processing modifies the chemical and isotopic composition of aquatic carbon pools during transport downstream in a large river system with natural and man-made impoundments. Relationships between land cover and DOC carbon-isotope composition, absorbance, and hydrophobic acid content indicate that DOC retains terrestrial carbon source information, while the terrestrial POC signal is largely replaced by autochthonous organic matter, and DIC integrates the influence of in-stream photosynthesis and respiration of organic matter. The UMR is slightly heterotrophic throughout the year, but pools formed by low-head navigation dams and natural impoundments promote a shift toward autotrophic conditions, altering aquatic ecosystem dynamics and POC and DIC compositions. Such changes likely occur in all major river systems affected by low-head dams and need to be incorporated into our understanding of inland water carbon dynamics and processes controlling CO2 emissions from rivers, as new navigation and flood control systems are planned for future river and water resources management.

Biological and land use controls on the isotopic composition of aquatic carbon in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voss, Britta; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Aiken, George R.; Striegl, Robert G.

2017-01-01

Riverine ecosystems receive organic matter (OM) from terrestrial sources, internally produce new OM, and biogeochemically cycle and modify organic and inorganic carbon. Major gaps remain in the understanding of the relationships between carbon sources and processing in river systems. Here we synthesize isotopic, elemental, and molecular properties of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) system above Wabasha, MN, including the main stem Mississippi River and its four major tributaries (Minnesota, upper Mississippi, St. Croix, and Chippewa Rivers). Our goal was to elucidate how biological processing modifies the chemical and isotopic composition of aquatic carbon pools during transport downstream in a large river system with natural and man-made impoundments. Relationships between land cover and DOC carbon-isotope composition, absorbance, and hydrophobic acid content indicate that DOC retains terrestrial carbon source information, while the terrestrial POC signal is largely replaced by autochthonous organic matter, and DIC integrates the influence of in-stream photosynthesis and respiration of organic matter. The UMR is slightly heterotrophic throughout the year, but pools formed by low-head navigation dams and natural impoundments promote a shift towards autotrophic conditions, altering aquatic ecosystem dynamics and POC and DIC composition. Such changes likely occur in all major river systems affected by low-head dams and need to be incorporated into our understanding of inland water carbon dynamics and processes controlling CO2 emissions from rivers, as new navigation and flood control systems are planned for future river and water resources management.

Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

2014-10-01

We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

Developing a Carbon Observing System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, B., III

2015-12-01

There is a clear need to better understand and predict future climate change, so that science can more confidently inform climate policy, including adaptation planning and future mitigation strategies. Understanding carbon cycle feedbacks, and the relationship between emissions (fossil and land use) and the resulting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations in a changing climate has been recognized as an important goal by the IPCC. The existing surface greenhouse gas observing networks provide accurate and precise measurements of background values, but they are not configured to target the extended, complex and dynamic regions of the carbon budget. Space Agencies around the globe are committed to CO2 and CH4 observations: GOSAT-1/2, OCO-2/3, MERLin, TanSat, and CarbonSat. In addition to these Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions, a new mission in Geostationary Orbit (GEO), geoCARB, which would provide mapping-like measurements of carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide concentrations over major land areas, has been recently proposed to the NASA Venture Program. These pioneering missions do not provide the spatial/temporal coverage to answer the key carbon-climate questions at process relevant scales nor do they address the distribution and quantification of anthropogenic sources at urban scales. They do demonstrate, however, that a well-planned future system of system integrating space-based LEO and GEO missions with extensive in situ observations could provide the accuracy, spatial resolution, and coverage needed to address critical open issues in the carbon-climate system. Dr. Diana Wickland devoted enormous energy in developing a comprehensive apprioach to understand the global carbon cycle; she understood well that an integrated, coordinated, international approach is needed. This shines through in her recent contribution in co-chairing the team that produced the "CEOS Strategy for Carbon Observations from Space." A NASA-funded community workshop in March 2015 addressed issues and prioritzed a set of research and observational needs in the study of the Carbon-Climate System. This paper will refect upon the past 30 plus years of carbon research supported by NASA and Dr. Wickland's role, and it will conclude with the findings of the March 2015 Workshop.

Dynamic hybrid life cycle assessment of energy and carbon of multicrystalline silicon photovoltaic systems.

PubMed

Zhai, Pei; Williams, Eric D

2010-10-15

This paper advances the life cycle assessment (LCA) of photovoltaic systems by expanding the boundary of the included processes using hybrid LCA and accounting for the technology-driven dynamics of embodied energy and carbon emissions. Hybrid LCA is an extended method that combines bottom-up process-sum and top-down economic input-output (EIO) methods. In 2007, the embodied energy was 4354 MJ/m(2) and the energy payback time (EPBT) was 2.2 years for a multicrystalline silicon PV system under 1700 kWh/m(2)/yr of solar radiation. These results are higher than those of process-sum LCA by approximately 60%, indicating that processes excluded in process-sum LCA, such as transportation, are significant. Even though PV is a low-carbon technology, the difference between hybrid and process-sum results for 10% penetration of PV in the U.S. electrical grid is 0.13% of total current grid emissions. Extending LCA from the process-sum to hybrid analysis makes a significant difference. Dynamics are characterized through a retrospective analysis and future outlook for PV manufacturing from 2001 to 2011. During this decade, the embodied carbon fell substantially, from 60 g CO(2)/kWh in 2001 to 21 g/kWh in 2011, indicating that technological progress is realizing reductions in embodied environmental impacts as well as lower module price.

Climate Change and Future U.S. Electricity Infrastructure: the Nexus between Water Availability, Land Suitability, and Low-Carbon Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, J.; Halter, T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Jensen, E.; Liu, L.; Olson, J.; Patel, P.; Vernon, C. R.; Voisin, N.; Zuljevic, N.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models project the future electricity generation mix under different policy, technology, and socioeconomic scenarios, but they do not directly address site-specific factors such as interconnection costs, population density, land use restrictions, air quality, NIMBY concerns, or water availability that might affect the feasibility of achieving the technology mix. Moreover, since these factors can change over time due to climate, policy, socioeconomics, and so on, it is important to examine the dynamic feasibility of integrated assessment scenarios "on the ground." This paper explores insights from coupling an integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) with a geospatial power plant siting model (the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility model, CERF) within a larger multi-model framework that includes regional climate, hydrologic, and water management modeling. GCAM-USA is a dynamic-recursive market equilibrium model simulating the impact of carbon policies on global and national markets for energy commodities and other goods; one of its outputs is the electricity generation mix and expansion at the state-level. It also simulates water demands from all sectors that are downscaled as input to the water management modeling. CERF simulates siting decisions by dynamically representing suitable areas for different generation technologies with geospatial analyses (informed by technology-specific siting criteria, such as required mean streamflow per the Clean Water Act), and then choosing siting locations to minimize interconnection costs (to electric transmission and gas pipelines). CERF results are compared across three scenarios simulated by GCAM-USA: 1) a non-mitigation scenario (RCP8.5) in which conventional fossil-fueled technologies prevail, 2) a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) in which the carbon price causes a shift toward nuclear, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and renewables, and 3) a repeat of scenario (2) in which CCS technologies are made unavailable—resulting in a large increase in the nuclear fraction of the mix.

Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D

2017-01-01

Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010-2019), mid (2050-2059), and late (2090-2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8-48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink.

Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010–2019), mid (2050–2059), and late (2090–2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8–48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink. PMID:28046079

Simulation of salinity effects on past, present, and future soil organic carbon stocks.

PubMed

Setia, Raj; Smith, Pete; Marschner, Petra; Gottschalk, Pia; Baldock, Jeff; Verma, Vipan; Setia, Deepika; Smith, Jo

2012-02-07

Soil organic carbon (SOC) models are used to predict changes in SOC stocks and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from soils, and have been successfully validated for non-saline soils. However, SOC models have not been developed to simulate SOC turnover in saline soils. Due to the large extent of salt-affected areas in the world, it is important to correctly predict SOC dynamics in salt-affected soils. To close this knowledge gap, we modified the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) to simulate SOC turnover in salt-affected soils, using data from non-salt-affected and salt-affected soils in two agricultural regions in India (120 soils) and in Australia (160 soils). Recently we developed a decomposition rate modifier based on an incubation study of a subset of these soils. In the present study, we introduce a new method to estimate the past losses of SOC due to salinity and show how salinity affects future SOC stocks on a regional scale. Because salinity decreases decomposition rates, simulations using the decomposition rate modifier for salinity suggest an accumulation of SOC. However, if the plant inputs are also adjusted to reflect reduced plant growth under saline conditions, the simulations show a significant loss of soil carbon in the past due to salinization, with a higher average loss of SOC in Australian soils (55 t C ha(-1)) than in Indian soils (31 t C ha(-1)). There was a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05) between SOC loss and osmotic potential. Simulations of future SOC stocks with the decomposition rate modifier and the plant input modifier indicate a greater decrease in SOC in saline than in non-saline soils under future climate. The simulations of past losses of SOC due to salinity were repeated using either measured charcoal-C or the inert organic matter predicted by the Falloon et al. equation to determine how much deviation from the Falloon et al. equation affects the amount of plant inputs generated by the model for the soils used in this study. Both sets of results suggest that saline soils have lost carbon and will continue to lose carbon under future climate. This demonstrates the importance of both reduced decomposition and reduced plant input in simulations of future changes in SOC stocks in saline soils.

Potential role of vegetation dynamics on recent extreme droughts over tropical South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.

2017-12-01

Tropical South America is a drought hot spot. In slightly over a decade (2005-2016), the region encountered three extreme droughts (2005, 2010, and 2016). Recurrent extreme droughts not only impact the region's eco-hydrology and socio-economy, but are also globally important as they can transform the planet's largest rainforest, the Amazon, from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Understanding drought drivers and mechanisms underlying extreme droughts in tropical South America can help better project the fate of the Amazon rainforest in a changing climate. In this study we use a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4) coupled with a comprehensive land-surface model (CLM4.5) to study the present-day hydroclimate of the region, focusing specifically on what might have caused the frequent recurrence of extreme droughts. In the context of observation natural variability of the global oceanic forcing, we tackle the role of land-atmosphere interactions and ran the model with and without dynamic vegetation to study how vegetation dynamics and carbon-nitrogen cycles may have influenced the drought characteristics. Our results demonstrate skillful simulation of the South American climate in the model, and indicate substantial sensitivity of the region's hydroclimatology to vegetation dynamics. This presentation will compare the role of global oceanic forcing versus regional land surface feedback in the recent recurrent droughts, and will characterize the effects of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the drought severity. Preliminary results on future projections of the regional ecosystem and droughts perspective will be also presented.

Future permafrost degradation positively enhances Arctic ecohydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Hotaek; Walsh, John

2013-04-01

Permafrost is considered vulnerable to increasing temperatures. Air temperatures over the Arctic have indeed increased considerably over the last century. Most climate models project that the warming will continue, enhancing permafrost degradation. The degradation of permafrost has the potential to initiate numerous feedbacks, predominantly positive, in the Arctic climatic, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. For instance, the Arctic terrestrial evapotranspiration during summer season tends to overpass precipitation of the period. The unbalance of water budget seems to be offset by permafrost contribution. A considerable amount of soil carbon cumulating within the permafrost is also released with permafrost degradation. However, it is still uncertain on how much amount of soil carbon will be released. Furthermore, the largest uncertainty is on the magnitude of permafrost degradation under the future climate change. Therefore, the major purpose of this study is to reduce the uncertainties relating to permafrost degradation and then is to assess influences of permafrost dynamics on ecohydrological processes. A land surface model CHANGE, including hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was applied to the pan-Arctic terrestrial region over the period 1901-2100. For exploring the influence of permafrost dynamics on ecohydrological processes in the future, outputs from four scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) of three GCMs (MIROC, CCSM4, and HadGCM2) were used for the simulation of CHANGE. Permafrost positively degraded with temperature warming. By 2091-2100, permafrost extent was decreased 30-75% and active layer thickness increased about 55-125 cm, compared to 1991-2010. Evapotranspiration (ET) and net primary productivity (NPP) also increased about 15-55%. However, higher ET resulted in soil dryness. On the other hand, the increased NPP enhanced soil organic matter, which increased soil water-holding capacity and limited soil warming due to its insulation effect. The model also predicted a cumulative efflux of 50-120 Gt C of permafrost carbon to the atmosphere by 2100. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible and amplify surface warming to initiate a positive permafrost carbon feedback on climate. On the other hand, the conditions implicated to permafrost degradation tended to keep summertime ET and NPP relatively high.

A National Disturbance Modeling System to Support Ecological Carbon Sequestration Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawbaker, T. J.; Rollins, M. G.; Volegmann, J. E.; Shi, H.; Sohl, T. L.

2009-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is prototyping a methodology to fulfill requirements of Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. At the core of the EISA requirements is the development of a methodology to complete a two-year assessment of current carbon stocks and other greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, and potential increases for ecological carbon sequestration under a range of future climate changes, land-use / land-cover configurations, and policy, economic and management scenarios. Disturbances, especially fire, affect vegetation dynamics and ecosystem processes, and can also introduce substantial uncertainty and risk to the efficacy of long-term carbon sequestration strategies. Thus, the potential impacts of disturbances need to be considered under different scenarios. As part of USGS efforts to meet EISA requirements, we developed the National Disturbance Modeling System (NDMS) using a series of statistical and process-based simulation models. NDMS produces spatially-explicit forecasts of future disturbance locations and severity, and the resulting effects on vegetation dynamics. NDMS is embedded within the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Cover (FORE-SCE) model and informs the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) for quantifying carbon stocks and GHG fluxes. For fires, NDMS relies on existing disturbance histories, such as the Landsat derived Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) and Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) data being used to update LANDFIRE fuels data. The MTBS and VCT data are used to parameterize models predicting the number and size of fires in relation to climate, land-use/land-cover change, and socioeconomic variables. The locations of individual fire ignitions are determined by an ignition probability surface and then FARSITE is used to simulate fire spread in response to weather, fuels, and topography. Following the fire spread simulations, a burn severity model is used to determine annual changes in biomass pools. Vegetation succession among LANDFIRE vegetation types is initiated using burn perimeter and severity data at the end of each annual simulation. Results from NDMS are used to update land-use/land-cover layers used by FORE-SCE and also transferred to GEMS for quantifying and updating carbon stocks and greenhouse gas fluxes. In this presentation, we present: 1) an overview of NDMS and its role in USGS's national ecological carbon sequestration assessment; 2) validation of NDMS using historic data; and 3) initial forecasts of disturbances for the southeastern United States and their impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, and post-fire carbon stocks and fluxes.

Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

2016-07-01

Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

Long-term dynamics of dissolved organic carbon: implications for drinking water supply.

PubMed

Ledesma, José L J; Köhler, Stephan J; Futter, Martyn N

2012-08-15

Surface waters are the main source of drinking water in many regions. Increasing organic carbon concentrations are a cause for concern in Nordic countries since both dissolved and particulate organic carbon can transport contaminants and adversely affect drinking water treatment processes. We present a long-term study of dynamics of total (particulate and dissolved) organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in the River Fyris. This river supplies drinking water to approximately 200000 people in Uppsala, Sweden. The River Fyris is a main tributary to Lake Mälaren, which supplies drinking water to approximately 2 million people in the greater Stockholm area. Utilities responsible for drinking water supply in both Uppsala and Stockholm have expressed concerns about possible increases in TOC. We evaluate organic carbon dynamics within the Fyris catchment by calculating areal mass exports using observed TOC concentrations and modeled flows and by modeling dissolved organic carbon (as a proxy for TOC) using the dynamic, process based INCA-C model. Exports of TOC from the catchment ranged from 0.8 to 5.8 g m(-2) year(-1) in the period 1995-2010. The variation in annual exports was related to climatic variability which influenced seasonality and amount of runoff. Exports and discharge uncoupled at the end of 2008. A dramatic increase in TOC concentrations was observed in 2009, which gradually declined in 2010-2011. INCA-C successfully reproduced the intra- and inter-annual variation in concentrations during 1996-2008 and 2010-2011 but failed to capture the anomalous increase in 2009. We evaluated a number of hypotheses to explain the anomaly in 2009 TOC values, ultimately none proved satisfactory. We draw two main conclusions: there is at least one unknown or unmeasured process controlling or influencing surface water TOC and INCA-C can be used as part of the decision-making process for current and future use of rivers for drinking water supply. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land use and carbon dynamics in the southeastern United States from 1992 to 2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L.; Young, Claudia; Werner, Jeremy M.

2013-01-01

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) plays an important role in determining the spatial distribution, magnitude, and temporal change of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. However, the impacts of LUCC are not well understood and quantified over large areas. The goal of this study was to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon dynamics in various terrestrial ecosystems in the southeastern United States from 1992 to 2050 using a process-based modeling system and then to investigate the impacts of LUCC. Spatial LUCC information was reconstructed and projected using the FOREcasting SCEnarios of future land cover (FORE-SCE) model according to information derived from Landsat observations and other sources. Results indicated that urban expansion (from 3.7% in 1992 to 9.2% in 2050) was expected to be the primary driver for other land cover changes in the region, leading to various declines in forest, cropland, and hay/pasture. The region was projected to be a carbon sink of 60.4 gC m−2 yr−1 on average during the study period, primarily due to the legacy impacts of large-scale conversion of cropland to forest that happened since the 1950s. Nevertheless, the regional carbon sequestration rate was expected to decline because of the slowing down of carbon accumulation in aging forests and the decline of forest area.

Changing dynamics of Caribbean reef carbonate budgets: emergence of reef bioeroders as critical controls on present and future reef growth potential.

PubMed

Perry, Chris T; Murphy, Gary N; Kench, Paul S; Edinger, Evan N; Smithers, Scott G; Steneck, Robert S; Mumby, Peter J

2014-12-07

Coral cover has declined rapidly on Caribbean reefs since the early 1980s, reducing carbonate production and reef growth. Using a cross-regional dataset, we show that widespread reductions in bioerosion rates-a key carbonate cycling process-have accompanied carbonate production declines. Bioerosion by parrotfish, urchins, endolithic sponges and microendoliths collectively averages 2 G (where G = kg CaCO3 m(-2) yr(-1)) (range 0.96-3.67 G). This rate is at least 75% lower than that reported from Caribbean reefs prior to their shift towards their present degraded state. Despite chronic overfishing, parrotfish are the dominant bioeroders, but erosion rates are reduced from averages of approximately 4 to 1.6 G. Urchin erosion rates have declined further and are functionally irrelevant to bioerosion on most reefs. These changes demonstrate a fundamental shift in Caribbean reef carbonate budget dynamics. To-date, reduced bioerosion rates have partially offset carbonate production declines, limiting the extent to which more widespread transitions to negative budget states have occurred. However, given the poor prognosis for coral recovery in the Caribbean and reported shifts to coral community states dominated by slower calcifying taxa, a continued transition from production to bioerosion-controlled budget states, which will increasingly threaten reef growth, is predicted. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenxin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin; Wania, Rita; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf

2013-09-01

One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model-downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961-1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051-2080), a poleward advance of the forest-tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH4, may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux.

Environmental dynamics and carbon accumulation rate of a tropical peatland in Central Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapsari, Kartika Anggi; Biagioni, Siria; Jennerjahn, Tim C.; Reimer, Peter Meyer; Saad, Asmadi; Achnopha, Yudhi; Sabiham, Supiandi; Behling, Hermann

2017-08-01

Tropical peatlands are important for the global carbon cycle as they store 18% of the total global peat carbon. As they are vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, a rapidly changing environment endangers peatlands and their carbon storage potential. Understanding the mechanisms of peatland carbon accumulation from studying past developments may, therefore, help to assess the future role of tropical peatlands. Using a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach, a peat core taken from the Sungai Buluh peatland in Central Sumatra has been analyzed for its pollen and spore, macro charcoal and biogeochemical composition. The result suggests that peat and C accumulation rates were driven mainly by sea level change, river water level, climatic variability and anthropogenic activities. It is also suggested that peat C accumulation in Sungai Buluh is correlated to the abundance of Freycinetia, Myrtaceae, Calophyllum, Stemonuraceae, Ficus and Euphorbiaceae. Sungai Buluh has reasonable potential for being a future global tropical peat C sinks. However, considering the impact of rapid global climate change in addition to land-use change following rapid economic growth in Indonesia, such potential may be lost. Taking advantage of available palaeoecological records and advances made in Quaternary studies, some considerations for management practice such as identification of priority taxa and conservation sites are suggested.

Optimality Based Dynamic Plant Allocation Model: Predicting Acclimation Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Drewry, D.; Kumar, P.; Sivapalan, M.

2009-12-01

Allocation of assimilated carbon to different plant parts determines the future plant status and is important to predict long term (months to years) vegetated land surface fluxes. Plants have the ability to modify their allometry and exhibit plasticity by varying the relative proportions of the structural biomass contained in each of its tissue. The ability of plants to be plastic provides them with the potential to acclimate to changing environmental conditions in order to enhance their probability of survival. Allometry based allocation models and other empirical allocation models do not account for plant plasticity cause by acclimation due to environmental changes. In the absence of a detailed understanding of the various biophysical processes involved in plant growth and development an optimality approach is adopted here to predict carbon allocation in plants. Existing optimality based models of plant growth are either static or involve considerable empiricism. In this work, we adopt an optimality based approach (coupled with limitations on plant plasticity) to predict the dynamic allocation of assimilated carbon to different plant parts. We explore the applicability of this approach using several optimization variables such as net primary productivity, net transpiration, realized growth rate, total end of growing season reproductive biomass etc. We use this approach to predict the dynamic nature of plant acclimation in its allocation of carbon to different plant parts under current and future climate scenarios. This approach is designed as a growth sub-model in the multi-layer canopy plant model (MLCPM) and is used to obtain land surface fluxes and plant properties over the growing season. The framework of this model is such that it retains the generality and can be applied to different types of ecosystems. We test this approach using the data from free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments using soybean crop at the Soy-FACE research site. Our results show that there are significant changes in the allocation patterns of vegetation when subjected to elevated CO2 indicating that our model is able to account for plant plasticity arising from acclimation. Soybeans when grown under elevated CO2, increased their allocation to structural components such as leaves and decreased their allocation to reproductive biomass. This demonstrates that plant acclimation causes lower than expected crop yields when grown under elevated CO2. Our findings can have serious implications in estimating future crop yields under climate change scenarios where it is widely expected that rising CO2 will fully offset losses due to climate change.

Southern Ocean acidification: A tipping point at 450-ppm atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

McNeil, Ben I.; Matear, Richard J.

2008-01-01

Southern Ocean acidification via anthropogenic CO2 uptake is expected to be detrimental to multiple calcifying plankton species by lowering the concentration of carbonate ion (CO32−) to levels where calcium carbonate (both aragonite and calcite) shells begin to dissolve. Natural seasonal variations in carbonate ion concentrations could either hasten or dampen the future onset of this undersaturation of calcium carbonate. We present a large-scale Southern Ocean observational analysis that examines the seasonal magnitude and variability of CO32− and pH. Our analysis shows an intense wintertime minimum in CO32− south of the Antarctic Polar Front and when combined with anthropogenic CO2 uptake is likely to induce aragonite undersaturation when atmospheric CO2 levels reach ≈450 ppm. Under the IPCC IS92a scenario, Southern Ocean wintertime aragonite undersaturation is projected to occur by the year 2030 and no later than 2038. Some prominent calcifying plankton, in particular the Pteropod species Limacina helicina, have important veliger larval development during winter and will have to experience detrimental carbonate conditions much earlier than previously thought, with possible deleterious flow-on impacts for the wider Southern Ocean marine ecosystem. Our results highlight the critical importance of understanding seasonal carbon dynamics within all calcifying marine ecosystems such as continental shelves and coral reefs, because natural variability may potentially hasten the onset of future ocean acidification. PMID:19022908

Southern Ocean acidification: a tipping point at 450-ppm atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

McNeil, Ben I; Matear, Richard J

2008-12-02

Southern Ocean acidification via anthropogenic CO(2) uptake is expected to be detrimental to multiple calcifying plankton species by lowering the concentration of carbonate ion (CO(3)(2-)) to levels where calcium carbonate (both aragonite and calcite) shells begin to dissolve. Natural seasonal variations in carbonate ion concentrations could either hasten or dampen the future onset of this undersaturation of calcium carbonate. We present a large-scale Southern Ocean observational analysis that examines the seasonal magnitude and variability of CO(3)(2-) and pH. Our analysis shows an intense wintertime minimum in CO(3)(2-) south of the Antarctic Polar Front and when combined with anthropogenic CO(2) uptake is likely to induce aragonite undersaturation when atmospheric CO(2) levels reach approximately 450 ppm. Under the IPCC IS92a scenario, Southern Ocean wintertime aragonite undersaturation is projected to occur by the year 2030 and no later than 2038. Some prominent calcifying plankton, in particular the Pteropod species Limacina helicina, have important veliger larval development during winter and will have to experience detrimental carbonate conditions much earlier than previously thought, with possible deleterious flow-on impacts for the wider Southern Ocean marine ecosystem. Our results highlight the critical importance of understanding seasonal carbon dynamics within all calcifying marine ecosystems such as continental shelves and coral reefs, because natural variability may potentially hasten the onset of future ocean acidification.

Disentangling the effects of climate variability and functional change on ecosystem carbon dynamics using semi-empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; van der Linden, L.; Lasslop, G.; Carvalhais, N.; Pilegaard, K.; Beier, C.; Ibrom, A.

2012-04-01

The ecosystem carbon balance is affected by both external climatic forcing (e.g. solar radiation, air temperature and humidity) and internal dynamics in the ecosystem functional properties (e.g. canopy structure, leaf photosynthetic capacity and carbohydrate reserve). In order to understand to what extent and at which temporal scale, climatic variability and functional changes regulated the interannual variation (IAV) in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), data-driven analysis and semi-empirical modelling (Lasslop et al. 2010) were performed based on a 13 year NEE record in a temperate deciduous forest (Pilegaard et al 2011, Wu et al. 2012). We found that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed seasonally. This implied that the changing distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period could have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. At the annual time scale, approximately 80% of the interannual variability in NEE was attributed to the variation in the model parameters, indicating the observed IAV in the carbon dynamics at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed the need for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem functional change. The method can be applied at other sites to explore ecosystem behavior across different plant functional types and climate gradients. Incorporating ecosystem functional change into process based models will reduce the uncertainties in long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon balances in global climate change projections. Acknowledgements. This work was supported by the EU FP7 project CARBO-Extreme, the DTU Climate Centre and the Danish national project ECOCLIM (Danish Council for Strategic Research).

Evaluation of coral reef carbonate production models at a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, N. S.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

2014-09-01

Calcification by coral reef communities is estimated to account for half of all carbonate produced in shallow water environments and more than 25% of the total carbonate buried in marine sediments globally. Production of calcium carbonate by coral reefs is therefore an important component of the global carbon cycle. It is also threatened by future global warming and other global change pressures. Numerical models of reefal carbonate production are essential for understanding how carbonate deposition responds to environmental conditions including future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but these models must first be evaluated in terms of their skill in recreating present day calcification rates. Here we evaluate four published model descriptions of reef carbonate production in terms of their predictive power, at both local and global scales, by comparing carbonate budget outputs with independent estimates. We also compile available global data on reef calcification to produce an observation-based dataset for the model evaluation. The four calcification models are based on functions sensitive to combinations of light availability, aragonite saturation (Ωa) and temperature and were implemented within a specifically-developed global framework, the Global Reef Accretion Model (GRAM). None of the four models correlated with independent rate estimates of whole reef calcification. The temperature-only based approach was the only model output to significantly correlate with coral-calcification rate observations. The absence of any predictive power for whole reef systems, even when consistent at the scale of individual corals, points to the overriding importance of coral cover estimates in the calculations. Our work highlights the need for an ecosystem modeling approach, accounting for population dynamics in terms of mortality and recruitment and hence coral cover, in estimating global reef carbonate budgets. In addition, validation of reef carbonate budgets is severely hampered by limited and inconsistent methodology in reef-scale observations.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling.

PubMed

Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K; Murphy, Lora

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Strong spatial variability in trace gas dynamics following experimental drought in a humid tropical forest

Treesearch

Tana Wood; W. L. Silver

2012-01-01

[1] Soil moisture is a key driver of biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems, strongly affecting carbon (C) and nutrient availability as well as trace gas production and consumption in soils. Models predict increasing drought frequency in tropical forest ecosystems, which could feed back on future climate change directly via effects on trace gasdynamics and...

Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; Raymond Drapeck

2008-01-01

The response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change was simulated for California using the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined, and increases in the productivity of evergreen hardwoods led to the displacement of Evergreen Conifer Forest by Mixed...

Estimating drought induced tree mortality in the Amazon rainforest: A simulation study with a focus on plant hydraulic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papastefanou, P.; Fleischer, K.; Hickler, T.; Grams, T.; Lapola, D.; Quesada, C. A.; Zang, C.; Rammig, A.

2017-12-01

The Amazon basin was recently hit by severe drought events that were unprecedented in their severity and spatial extent, e.g. during 2005, 2010 and 2015/2016. Significant amounts of biomass were lost, turning large parts of the rainforest from a carbon sink into a carbon source. It is assumed that drought-induced tree mortality from hydraulic failure played an important role during these events and may become more frequent in the Amazon region in the future. Many state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models do not include plant hydraulic processes and fail to reproduce observed rainforest responses to drought events, such as e.g. increased tree mortality. We address this research gap by developing a simple plant-hydraulic module for the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. This plant-hydraulic module uses leaf water potential and cavitation as baseline processes to simulate tree mortality under drought stress. Furthermore, we introduce different plant strategies in the model, which describe e.g. differences in the stomatal regulation under drought stress. To parameterize and evaluate our hydraulic module, we use a set of available observational data from the Amazon region. We apply our model to the Amazon Basin and highlight similarities and differences across other measured and predicted drought responses, e.g. extrapolated observations and data derived from satellite measurements. Our results highlight the importance of including plant hydraulic processes in dynamic vegetation models to correctly predict vegetation dynamics under drought stress and show major differences on the vegetation dynamics depending on the selected plant strategies. We also identify gaps in process understanding of the triggering factors, the extent and the consequences of drought responses that hampers our ability to predict potential impact of future drought events on the Amazon rainforest.

Changes in Landscape-level Carbon Balance of an Arctic Coastal Plain Tundra Ecosystem Between 1970-2100, in Response to Projected Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lara, M. J.; McGuire, A. D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Genet, H.; Sloan, V. L.; Iversen, C. M.; Norby, R. J.; Zhang, Y.; Yuan, F.

2014-12-01

Northern permafrost regions are estimated to cover 16% of the global soil area and account for approximately 50% of the global belowground organic carbon pool. However, there are considerable uncertainties regarding the fate of this soil carbon pool with projected climate warming over the next century. In northern Alaska, nearly 65% of the terrestrial surface is composed of polygonal tundra, where geomorphic land cover types such as high-, flat-, and low-center polygons influence local surface hydrology, plant community composition, nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, over small spatial scales. Due to the lack of representation of these fine-scale geomorphic types and ecosystem processes, in large-scale terrestrial ecosystem models, future uncertainties are large for this tundra region. In this study, we use a new version of the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), that couples a dynamic vegetation model (in which plant functional types compete for water, nitrogen, and light) with a dynamic soil organic model (in which temperature, moisture, and associated organic/inorganic carbon and nitrogen pools/fluxes vary together in vertically resolved layers) to simulate ecosystem carbon balance. We parameterized and calibrated this model using data specific to the local climate, vegetation, and soil associated with tundra geomorphic types. We extrapolate model results at a 1km2 resolution across the ~1800 km2 Barrow Peninsula using a tundra geomorphology map, describing ten dominant geomorphic tundra types (Lara et al. submitted), to estimate the likely change in landscape-level carbon balance between 1970 and 2100 in response to projected climate change. Preliminary model runs for this region indicated temporal variability in carbon and active layer dynamics, specific to tundra geomorphic type over time. Overall, results suggest that it is important to consider small-scale discrete polygonal tundra geomorphic types that control local structure and function in regional estimates of carbon balance in northern Alaska.

Historical warming reduced due to enhanced land carbon uptake

PubMed Central

Shevliakova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Malyshev, Sergey; Krasting, John P.; Hurtt, George C.; Pacala, Stephen W.

2013-01-01

Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of enhanced vegetation growth under future elevated atmospheric CO2 for 21st century climate warming. Surprisingly no study has completed an analogous assessment for the historical period, during which emissions of greenhouse gases increased rapidly and land-use changes (LUC) dramatically altered terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory comprehensive Earth System Model ESM2G and a reconstruction of the LUC, we estimate that enhanced vegetation growth has lowered the historical atmospheric CO2 concentration by 85 ppm, avoiding an additional 0.31 ± 0.06 °C warming. We demonstrate that without enhanced vegetation growth the total residual terrestrial carbon flux (i.e., the net land flux minus LUC flux) would be a source of 65–82 Gt of carbon (GtC) to atmosphere instead of the historical residual carbon sink of 186–192 GtC, a carbon saving of 251–274 GtC. PMID:24062452

Dynamic Balancing of Isoprene Carbon Sources Reflects Photosynthetic and Photorespiratory Responses to Temperature Stress1[W][OPEN

PubMed Central

Chambers, Jeffrey; Alves, Eliane G.; Teixeira, Andrea; Garcia, Sabrina; Holm, Jennifer; Higuchi, Niro; Manzi, Antonio; Abrell, Leif; Fuentes, Jose D.; Nielsen, Lars K.; Torn, Margaret S.; Vickers, Claudia E.

2014-01-01

The volatile gas isoprene is emitted in teragrams per annum quantities from the terrestrial biosphere and exerts a large effect on atmospheric chemistry. Isoprene is made primarily from recently fixed photosynthate; however, alternate carbon sources play an important role, particularly when photosynthate is limiting. We examined the relative contribution of these alternate carbon sources under changes in light and temperature, the two environmental conditions that have the strongest influence over isoprene emission. Using a novel real-time analytical approach that allowed us to examine dynamic changes in carbon sources, we observed that relative contributions do not change as a function of light intensity. We found that the classical uncoupling of isoprene emission from net photosynthesis at elevated leaf temperatures is associated with an increased contribution of alternate carbon. We also observed a rapid compensatory response where alternate carbon sources compensated for transient decreases in recently fixed carbon during thermal ramping, thereby maintaining overall increases in isoprene production rates at high temperatures. Photorespiration is known to contribute to the decline in net photosynthesis at high leaf temperatures. A reduction in the temperature at which the contribution of alternate carbon sources increased was observed under photorespiratory conditions, while photosynthetic conditions increased this temperature. Feeding [2-13C]glycine (a photorespiratory intermediate) stimulated emissions of [13C1–5]isoprene and 13CO2, supporting the possibility that photorespiration can provide an alternate source of carbon for isoprene synthesis. Our observations have important implications for establishing improved mechanistic predictions of isoprene emissions and primary carbon metabolism, particularly under the predicted increases in future global temperatures. PMID:25318937

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Carbon Fluxes in Glacial Meltwater Streams, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torrens, C.; Lyons, W. B.; McKnight, D. M.; Welch, K. A.; Gooseff, M. N.

2017-12-01

In the McMurdo Dry Valleys [MDV], Antarctica, glacial meltwater streams are the primary biogeochemical connectors linking glaciers, soils and lakes. These streams control the supply of nutrients and carbon to their terminal lakes, yet little is known about the magnitude, timing or distribution of these fluxes. The McMurdo Long Term Ecological Research project [MCM LTER] has collected over 20 years of sample data on dissolved organic and inorganic carbon in Taylor Valley streamwater; this is the first spatial and temporal analysis of this data. MDV streams are characterized by strong diel pulses in streamflow, specific electrical conductance, and temperature. Unlike temperate stream systems, there is no terrestrial vegetation, lateral overland flow or deep groundwater connection in MDV streams. As a result, the organic carbon is autochthonous, originating from stream microbial mats. Inorganic carbon is primarily bicarbonate; its source is hyporheic zone weathering. The carbonate system is in atmospheric equilibrium, reflecting the wide and shallow stream channels. Preliminary data show that the DOC flux varies with streamflow and is greater on the rising limb of the diel flow pulse. This pattern is more distinct in longer streams. DIC data does not show the same pattern, although the response may be blurred by a lag in hyporheic response to flood pulses and the lack of time-series data for alkalinity. Stream flood pulse dynamics control carbon loading to MDV lakes. As the climate changes, so will the timing and magnitude of diel flood pulses. This is likely to increase carbon loading to the Dry Valley lakes, altering the ecosystem carbon balance. This study increases our understanding of past and current patterns of carbon fluxes from streams to lakes; understanding past patterns will improve predictions of future changes.

Land-Use Impacts on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: An Integrative Tool for Resource Assessment and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, B. M.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Z.; Hawbaker, T. J.

2014-12-01

Human land use and natural processes contribute to the ability of ecosystems to store and sequester carbon and offset greenhouse gas emissions. Changes in land use (e.g. agricultural cultivation, timber harvest, urban development, and other land management strategies) and natural processes (e.g. climate, wildfire, disease, storm, and insect outbreak) drive the dynamics of ecosystem carbon pools. These carbon dynamics operate at different spatial and temporal scales, making it challenging to track the changes in a single integrative framework. Landowners, managers, and policy makers require data, information, and tools on the relative contributions of these drivers of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes in order to evaluate alternative policies and management strategies designed to increase carbon storage and sequestration. In this paper we explore preliminary results from efforts to simulate changes in ecosystem carbon at ecoregional scales, resulting from anthropogenic land use, wildfire, natural vegetation change, and climate variability under a range of future conditions coherent with a range of global change scenarios. Simulations track the fate of carbon across several pools, including living biomass, deadwood, litter, soil, and wood products. Carbon fluxes are estimated based on simulations from the Integrated Biosphere Simulator model (IBIS). Downscaled land-use projections from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways drive changes in land use, along with extrapolations based on local-scale data. We discuss the sensitivity of the model to individual drivers, and the overall uncertainty associated with the wide range of scenario projections, as well as explore alternative policy and management outcomes and their ability to increase carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems.

Dynamic balancing of isoprene carbon sources reflects photosynthetic and photorespiratory responses to temperature stress.

PubMed

Jardine, Kolby; Chambers, Jeffrey; Alves, Eliane G; Teixeira, Andrea; Garcia, Sabrina; Holm, Jennifer; Higuchi, Niro; Manzi, Antonio; Abrell, Leif; Fuentes, Jose D; Nielsen, Lars K; Torn, Margaret S; Vickers, Claudia E

2014-12-01

The volatile gas isoprene is emitted in teragrams per annum quantities from the terrestrial biosphere and exerts a large effect on atmospheric chemistry. Isoprene is made primarily from recently fixed photosynthate; however, alternate carbon sources play an important role, particularly when photosynthate is limiting. We examined the relative contribution of these alternate carbon sources under changes in light and temperature, the two environmental conditions that have the strongest influence over isoprene emission. Using a novel real-time analytical approach that allowed us to examine dynamic changes in carbon sources, we observed that relative contributions do not change as a function of light intensity. We found that the classical uncoupling of isoprene emission from net photosynthesis at elevated leaf temperatures is associated with an increased contribution of alternate carbon. We also observed a rapid compensatory response where alternate carbon sources compensated for transient decreases in recently fixed carbon during thermal ramping, thereby maintaining overall increases in isoprene production rates at high temperatures. Photorespiration is known to contribute to the decline in net photosynthesis at high leaf temperatures. A reduction in the temperature at which the contribution of alternate carbon sources increased was observed under photorespiratory conditions, while photosynthetic conditions increased this temperature. Feeding [2-(13)C]glycine (a photorespiratory intermediate) stimulated emissions of [(13)C1-5]isoprene and (13)CO2, supporting the possibility that photorespiration can provide an alternate source of carbon for isoprene synthesis. Our observations have important implications for establishing improved mechanistic predictions of isoprene emissions and primary carbon metabolism, particularly under the predicted increases in future global temperatures. © 2014 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Nonstructural carbon dynamics are best predicted by the combination of photosynthesis and plant hydraulics during both bark beetle induced mortality and herbaceous plant response to drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewers, B. E.; Mackay, D. S.; Guadagno, C.; Peckham, S. D.; Pendall, E.; Borkhuu, B.; Aston, T.; Frank, J. M.; Massman, W. J.; Reed, D. E.; Yarkhunova, Y.; Weinig, C.

2012-12-01

Recent work has shown that nonstructural carbon (NSC) provides both a signal and consequence of water stress in plants. The dynamics of NSC are likely not solely a result of the balance of photosynthesis and respiration (carbon starvation hypothesis) but also the availability of NSC for plant functions due to hydraulic condition. Further, plant hydraulics regulates photosynthesis both directly through stomatal conductance and indirectly through leaf water status control over leaf biochemistry. To test these hypotheses concerning NSC in response to a wide variety of plant perturbations, we used a model that combines leaf biochemical controls over photosynthesis (Farquhar model) with dynamic plant hydraulic conductance (Sperry model). This model (Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator; TREES) simulates the dynamics of NSC through a carbon budget approach that responds to plant hydraulic status. We tested TREES on two dramatically different datasets. The first dataset is from lodgepole pine and Engelmann spruce trees dying from bark beetles that carry blue-stain fungi which block xylem and cause hydraulic failure. The second data set is from Brassica rapa, a small herbaceous plant whose accessions are used in a variety of crops. The Brassica rapa plants include two parents whose circadian clock periods are different; NSC is known to provide inputs to the circadian clock likely modified by drought. Thus, drought may interact with clock control to constrain how NSC changes over the day. The Brassica rapa plants were grown in growth chamber conditions where drought was precisely controlled. The connection between these datasets is that both provide rigorous tests of our understanding of plant NSC dynamics and use similar leaf and whole plant gas exchange and NSC laboratory methods. Our results show that NSC decline (<10% in the whole plant) is less precipitous than expected from carbon starvation alone because both C uptake and use are impacted by water stress. The model is able to capture this relatively small decline in NSC by limiting NSC utilization through loss of plant hydraulic conductance. Our findings imply that NSC dynamics in plants undergoing water stress cannot be explained solely by carbon starvation or hydraulic failure but rather from the combination of both hypotheses. Our future work will determine whether additional environmental factors such as seasonality and plant developmental state alter the response of NSC to water stress.

Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregon’s urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Law, Beverly E.; Still, Christopher Jason; Schmidt, Andres

Our overarching goal was to develop and utilize an observation-based analysis framework to assess interactions between climate and mosaics of land use, land cover and urbanization on regional carbon, water, and energy dynamics, and potential changes associated with land management and climate. Carbon, water and energy cycling was quantified for the range of current and potential land uses under present and future climates. The study region of Oregon has a strong climatic gradient from the coastal mesic forests (2500mm ppt) to the Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, and the Northern Great Basin semi-arid “cold desert” to the east (300 mm). Themore » study was focused on the effects of (1) conversion of semi-arid sagebrush and Willamette Valley agricultural crops to bioenergy production; (2) afforestation of idle land and rangelands deemed suitable for forests or poplar crops under future climate conditions. We found that net ecosystem production (NEP), the net of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration, was 10 times higher in the high biomass forests of the Coast Range compared with drier regions like sagebrush in the Northern Great Basin, which was nearly zero (Schmidt et al. 2016). The state total NEP averaged about 30 teragrams carbon (Tg C) per year for the years 2012 to 2014 using our model framework that we developed for predictions of current and future NEP, and compared well with our detailed inventory estimates (28 Tg C annual average for 2011-2015 for forests only; Law et al. 2017). Running our model framework until the year 2050, we found that climate alone only increased NEP by less than 1 Tg C per decade (~3%) using the current trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions, however, changes are expected to be more rapid in subsequent years. We evaluated the possibility of land use change from grass seed crops to poplar for bioenergy, which slightly increased NEP by 2050. The most important variable for carbon sequestration estimates (net carbon sources and sinks) is net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), which accounts for NEP and losses associated with harvest removals and wildfire emissions. Here, we focus on forests because they have the largest effect on carbon sequestration. We found that NECB in Oregon averaged 18.8 Tg C per year in 2011-2015, offsetting fossil fuel emissions (16 Tg C per year). Annual fire emissions reducing NECB by about 5% (0.97 Tg C per year) in the state. The mesic Coast Range and West Cascades ecoregions that make up the western third of Oregon account for 60% of the forest NECB. This analysis illustrates that annual emissions from forests disturbances are low relative to annual fossil fuel emissions for the same area (Law et al. 2017, Hudiburg et al. in review).« less

Analysis of possible future atmospheric retention of fossil fuel CO/sub 2/

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edmonds, J.A.; Reilly, J.; Trabalka, J.R.

1984-09-01

This report investigates the likely rates and the potential range of future CO/sub 2/ emissions, combined with knowledge of the global cycle of carbon, to estimate a possible range of future atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations through the year 2075. Historic fossil fuel usage to the present, growing at a rate of 4.5% per year until 1973 and at a slower rate of 1.9% after 1973, was combined with three scenarios of projected emissions growth ranging from approximately 0.2 to 2.8% per year to provide annual CO/sub 2/ emissions data for two different carbon cycle models. The emissions scenarios were constructedmore » using an energy-economic model and by varying key parameters within the bounds of currently expected future values. The extreme values for CO/sub 2/ emissions in the year 2075 are 6.8 x 10/sup 15/ and 91 x 10/sup 15/ g C year/sup -1/. Carbon cycle model simulations used a range of year - 1800 preindustrial atmospheric concentrations of 245 to 292 ppM CO/sub 2/ and three scenarios of bioshere conversion as additional atmospheric CO/sub 2/ source terms. These simulations yield a range of possible atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations in year 2075 of approximately 500 to 1500 ppM, with a median of about 700 ppM. The time at which atmospheric CO/sub 2/ would potentially double from the preindustrial level ranges from year 2025 to >2075. The practical, programmatic value of this forecast exercise is that it forces quantitative definition of the assumptions, and the uncertainties therein, which form the basis of our understanding of the natural biogeochemical cycle of carbon and both historic and future human influences on the dynamics of the global cycle. Assumptions about the possible range of future atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels provide a basis on which to evaluate the implications of these changes on climate and the biosphere. 44 references, 17 figures, 21 tables.« less

Evaluating the Community Land Model in a pine stand with shading manipulations and 13CO 2 labeling

DOE PAGES

Mao, Jiafu; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Thornton, Peter E.; ...

2016-02-03

Carbon partitioning and flow through ecosystems regulates land surface atmosphere CO 2 exchange and thus is a key, albeit uncertain component of mechanistic models. The Partitioning in Trees and Soil (PiTS) experiment-model project tracked C partitioning through a young Pinus taeda stand following pulse-labeling with 13CO 2 and two levels of shading. The field component of this project provided process-oriented data that was used to evaluate and improve terrestrial biosphere model simulations of rapid shifts in carbon partitioning and hydrological dynamics under varying environmental conditions. Here we tested the performance of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) in capturingmore » short-term carbon and water dynamics in relation to manipulative shading treatments, and the timing and magnitude of carbon fluxes through various compartments of the ecosystem. To constrain CLM4 to closely simulate pretreatment conditions, we calibrated select model parameters with the pretreatment observational data. Compared to CLM4 simulations with default parameters, CLM4 with calibrated model parameters was better able to simulate pretreatment vegetation carbon pools, light response curves, and other initial states and fluxes of carbon and water. Over a 3-week treatment period, the calibrated CLM4 generally reproduced the impacts of shading on average soil moisture at 15-95 cm depth, transpiration, relative change in stem carbon, and soil CO 2 efflux rate, although some discrepancies in the estimation of magnitudes and temporal evolutions existed. CLM4, however, was not able to track the progression of the 13CO 2 label from the atmosphere through foliage, phloem, roots or surface soil CO 2 efflux, even when optimized model parameters were used. This model bias arises, in part, from the lack of a short-term non-structural carbohydrate storage pool and progressive timing of within-plant transport, thus indicating a need for future work to improve the allocation routines in CLM4. Overall, these types of detailed evaluations of CLM4, paired with intensive field manipulations, can help to identify model strengths and weaknesses, model uncertainties, and additional observations necessary for future model development.« less

Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L.; Wu, Yiping; Young, Claudia J.

2015-01-01

Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands’ contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency’s land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal.

Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States

PubMed Central

Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L.; Wu, Yiping; Young, Claudia J.

2015-01-01

Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands’ contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency’s land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal. PMID:26417074

Transient traceability analysis of land carbon storage dynamics: procedures and its application to two forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.; Shi, Z.; Xia, J.; Liang, J.; Lu, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage (X) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity (Xc) and C storage potential (Xp). Xc is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and Xp represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. Xc is co-determined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (𝜏N), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. Xp is the product of redistribution matrix (𝜏ch) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that two different mechanisms leading to the similar trajectory. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

Climate- and disturbance-driven changes in vegetation composition and structure limit future potential carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, Paul D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhao, Feng; Huang, Chengquan; Berryman, Erin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang

2016-04-01

The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) provides unique opportunities to understand how changing climate, land use, and disturbance affect ecosystem carbon balance. The GYE is one of the largest, most intact ecosystems in the United States. However, distinct management histories on National Park, National Forest, and private lands, elevational climate gradients, and variable fire activity, have created a mosaic of stand ages and forest types. It is uncertain how greenhouse forcing may alter the carbon balance of the GYE. Whereas increasing temperatures may enhance productivity and perpetuate the GYE as a carbon sink, climate-driven increases in fire frequency may offset productivity gains by limiting biomass accumulation. We investigated how changes in fire frequency and size may affect vegetation dynamics and carbon sequestration potential in the GYE using the LANDIS-II dynamic landscape vegetation model. LANDIS-II provides sufficient spatial resolution to capture landscape-level variation in forest biomass and forest types (i.e. 90 × 90 m grid cells), but can integrate disturbance regimes and vegetation dynamics across the entire GYE (92,000 km2). We initiated our simulations with biomass and stand conditions that preceded the exceptional 1988 fire, when 16% of the GYE burned. We inferred the biomass, species abundances, and stand demographics of each model cell by combining satellite imagery with forest inventory data, and developed two fire regime scenarios from historical fire records. We developed a historic wildfire scenario with infrequent fires by excluding 1988 from our calibration of fire sizes and frequencies, and a future scenario with more frequent and larger fires by including 1988 in our calibrations. Fire frequency increased in all forest types in our future scenario, with a 152% increase in the annual forest area burned relative to observed area burned during recent decades. However, the changes in fire frequency varied among forest types, with the largest increases in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta; 332% increase) and spruce/fir (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa; 243% increase) stands. In model runs with the historic fire regime, average stand age and live biomass remained consistent with pre-1988 values during the 200-year simulation period; biomass increased significantly only in recently-logged areas. In contrast, a marked shift to younger stands with lower biomass occurred in the future fire scenario. Average stand age declined from 112 years to 31 years in lodgepole pine stands, and from 191 years to 65 years in spruce/fir stands, with consequent reductions in living biomass. A smaller shift in stand age was simulated for douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands (i.e. 121 to 92 years). These fire-driven changes in stand age and biomass coincided with important shifts in species abundances. Specifically, lodgepole pine stands replaced large areas previously dominated by spruce and fir. Our results suggest that the potential for increasing the amount of fossil fuel emissions offset by carbon sequestration on public lands in the American West is limited by ongoing changes in disturbance regimes. Instead, land managers may need to consider strategies to adapt to climate change impacts.

Radiative forcing impacts of boreal forest biofuels: a scenario study for Norway in light of albedo.

PubMed

Bright, Ryan M; Strømman, Anders Hammer; Peters, Glen P

2011-09-01

Radiative forcing impacts due to increased harvesting of boreal forests for use as transportation biofuel in Norway are quantified using simple climate models together with life cycle emission data, MODIS surface albedo data, and a dynamic land use model tracking carbon flux and clear-cut area changes within productive forests over a 100-year management period. We approximate the magnitude of radiative forcing due to albedo changes and compare it to the forcing due to changes in the carbon cycle for purposes of attributing the net result, along with changes in fossil fuel emissions, to the combined anthropogenic land use plus transport fuel system. Depending on albedo uncertainty and uncertainty about the geographic distribution of future logging activity, we report a range of results, thus only general conclusions about the magnitude of the carbon offset potential due to changes in surface albedo can be drawn. Nevertheless, our results have important implications for how forests might be managed for mitigating climate change in light of this additional biophysical criterion, and in particular, on future biofuel policies throughout the region. Future research efforts should be directed at understanding the relationships between the physical properties of managed forests and albedo, and how albedo changes in time as a result of specific management interventions.

Carbon and water fluxes from ponderosa pine forests disturbed by wildfire and thinning.

PubMed

Dore, S; Kolb, T E; Montes-Helu, M; Eckert, S E; Sullivan, B W; Hungate, B A; Kaye, J P; Hart, S C; Koch, G W; Finkral, A

2010-04-01

Disturbances alter ecosystem carbon dynamics, often by reducing carbon uptake and stocks. We compared the impact of two types of disturbances that represent the most likely future conditions of currently dense ponderosa pine forests of the southwestern United States: (1) high-intensity fire and (2) thinning, designed to reduce fire intensity. High-severity fire had a larger impact on ecosystem carbon uptake and storage than thinning. Total ecosystem carbon was 42% lower at the intensely burned site, 10 years after burning, than at the undisturbed site. Eddy covariance measurements over two years showed that the burned site was a net annual source of carbon to the atmosphere whereas the undisturbed site was a sink. Net primary production (NPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and water use efficiency were lower at the burned site than at the undisturbed site. In contrast, thinning decreased total ecosystem carbon by 18%, and changed the site from a carbon sink to a source in the first posttreatment year. Thinning also decreased ET, reduced the limitation of drought on carbon uptake during summer, and did not change water use efficiency. Both disturbances reduced ecosystem carbon uptake by decreasing gross primary production (55% by burning, 30% by thinning) more than total ecosystem respiration (TER; 33-47% by burning, 18% by thinning), and increased the contribution of soil carbon dioxide efflux to TER. The relationship between TER and temperature was not affected by either disturbance. Efforts to accurately estimate regional carbon budgets should consider impacts on carbon dynamics of both large disturbances, such as high-intensity fire, and the partial disturbance of thinning that is often used to prevent intense burning. Our results show that thinned forests of ponderosa pine in the southwestern United States are a desirable alternative to intensively burned forests to maintain carbon stocks and primary production.

Carbon Nanotube Driver Circuit for 6 × 6 Organic Light Emitting Diode Display

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Jianping; Zhang, Kang; Li, Jingqi; Zhao, Yongbiao; Wang, Yilei; Pillai, Suresh Kumar Raman; Volkan Demir, Hilmi; Sun, Xiaowei; Chan-Park, Mary B.; Zhang, Qing

2015-06-01

Single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) is expected to be a very promising material for flexible and transparent driver circuits for active matrix organic light emitting diode (AM OLED) displays due to its high field-effect mobility, excellent current carrying capacity, optical transparency and mechanical flexibility. Although there have been several publications about SWNT driver circuits, none of them have shown static and dynamic images with the AM OLED displays. Here we report on the first successful chemical vapor deposition (CVD)-grown SWNT network thin film transistor (TFT) driver circuits for static and dynamic AM OLED displays with 6 × 6 pixels. The high device mobility of ~45 cm2V-1s-1 and the high channel current on/off ratio of ~105 of the SWNT-TFTs fully guarantee the control capability to the OLED pixels. Our results suggest that SWNT-TFTs are promising backplane building blocks for future OLED displays.

Carbon Nanotube Driver Circuit for 6 × 6 Organic Light Emitting Diode Display.

PubMed

Zou, Jianping; Zhang, Kang; Li, Jingqi; Zhao, Yongbiao; Wang, Yilei; Pillai, Suresh Kumar Raman; Volkan Demir, Hilmi; Sun, Xiaowei; Chan-Park, Mary B; Zhang, Qing

2015-06-29

Single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) is expected to be a very promising material for flexible and transparent driver circuits for active matrix organic light emitting diode (AM OLED) displays due to its high field-effect mobility, excellent current carrying capacity, optical transparency and mechanical flexibility. Although there have been several publications about SWNT driver circuits, none of them have shown static and dynamic images with the AM OLED displays. Here we report on the first successful chemical vapor deposition (CVD)-grown SWNT network thin film transistor (TFT) driver circuits for static and dynamic AM OLED displays with 6 × 6 pixels. The high device mobility of ~45 cm(2)V(-1)s(-1) and the high channel current on/off ratio of ~10(5) of the SWNT-TFTs fully guarantee the control capability to the OLED pixels. Our results suggest that SWNT-TFTs are promising backplane building blocks for future OLED displays.

Influence of crop type specification and spatial resolution on empirical modeling of field-scale Maize and Soybean carbon fluxes in the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCombs, A. G.; Hiscox, A.; Wang, C.; Desai, A. R.

2016-12-01

A challenge in satellite land surface remote-sensing models of ecosystem carbon dynamics in agricultural systems is the lack of differentiation by crop type and management. This generalization can lead to large discrepancies between model predictions and eddy covariance flux tower observations of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE). Literature confirms that NEE varies remarkably among different crop types making the generalization of agriculture in remote sensing based models inaccurate. Here, we address this inaccuracy by identifying and mapping net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in agricultural fields by comparing bulk modeling and modeling by crop type, and using this information to develop empirical models for future use. We focus on mapping NEE in maize and soybean fields in the US Great Plains at higher spatial resolution using the fusion of MODIS and LandSAT surface reflectance. MODIS observed reflectance was downscaled using the ESTARFM downscaling methodology to match spatial scales to those found in LandSAT and that are more appropriate for carbon dynamics in agriculture fields. A multiple regression model was developed from surface reflectance of the downscaled MODIS and LandSAT remote sensing values calibrated against five FLUXNET/AMERIFLUX flux towers located on soybean and/or maize agricultural fields in the US Great Plains with multi-year NEE observations. Our new methodology improves upon bulk approximates to map and model carbon dynamics in maize and soybean fields, which have significantly different photosynthetic capacities.

A first-order analysis of the potential role of CO2 fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: A comparison of four terrestrial biosphere models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kicklighter, D.W.; Bruno, M.; Donges, S.; Esser, G.; Heimann, Martin; Helfrich, J.; Ift, F.; Joos, F.; Kaduk, J.; Kohlmaier, G.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Melillo, J.M.; Meyer, R.; Moore, B.; Nadler, A.; Prentice, I.C.; Sauf, W.; Schloss, A.L.; Sitch, S.; Wittenberg, U.; Wurth, G.

1999-01-01

We compared the simulated responses of net primary production, heterotrophic respiration, net ecosystem production and carbon storage in natural terrestrial ecosystems to historical (1765 to 1990) and projected (1990 to 2300) changes of atmospheric CO2 concentration of four terrestrial biosphere models: the Bern model, the Frankfurt Biosphere Model (FBM), the High-Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM) and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). The results of the model intercomparison suggest that CO2 fertilization of natural terrestrial vegetation has the potential to account for a large fraction of the so-called 'missing carbon sink' of 2.0 Pg C in 1990. Estimates of this potential are reduced when the models incorporate the concept that CO2 fertilization can be limited by nutrient availability. Although the model estimates differ on the potential size (126 to 461 Pg C) of the future terrestrial sink caused by CO2 fertilization, the results of the four models suggest that natural terrestrial ecosystems will have a limited capacity to act as a sink of atmospheric CO2 in the future as a result of physiological constraints and nutrient constraints on NPP. All the spatially explicit models estimate a carbon sink in both tropical and northern temperate regions, but the strength of these sinks varies over time. Differences in the simulated response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization among the models in this intercomparison study reflect the fact that the models have highlighted different aspects of the effect of CO2 fertilization on carbon dynamics of natural terrestrial ecosystems including feedback mechanisms. As interactions with nitrogen fertilization, climate change and forest regrowth may play an important role in simulating the response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization, these factors should be included in future analyses. Improvements in spatially explicit data sets, whole-ecosystems experiments and the availability of net carbon exchange measurements across the globe will also help to improve future evaluations of the role of CO2 fertilization on terrestrial carbon storage.

Introducing litter quality to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS: Effects on short- and long-term soil carbon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portner, Hanspeter; Wolf, Annett; Rühr, Nadine; Bugmann, Harald

2010-05-01

Many biogeochemical models have been applied to study the response of the carbon cycle to changes in climate, whereby the process of carbon uptake (photosynthesis) has usually gained more attention than the equally important process of carbon release by respiration. The decomposition of soil organic matter is driven by a combination of factors like soil temperature, soil moisture and litter quality. We have introduced dependence on litter substrate quality to heterotrophic soil respiration in the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS [Smith et al.(2001)]. We were interested in differences in model projections before and after the inclusion of the dependency both in respect to short- and long-term soil carbon dynamics. The standard implementation of heterotrophic soil respiration in LPJ-GUESS is a simple carbon three-pool model whose decay rates are dependent on soil temperature and soil moisture. We have added dependence on litter quality by coupling LPJ-GUESS to the soil carbon model Yasso07 [Tuomi et al.(2008)]. The Yasso07 model is based on an extensive number of measurements of litter decomposition of forest soils. Apart from the dependence on soil temperature and soil moisture, the Yasso07 model uses carbon soil pools representing different substrate qualities: acid hydrolyzable, water soluble, ethanol soluble, lignin compounds and humus. Additionally Yasso07 differentiates between woody and non-woody litter. In contrary to the reference implementation of LPJ-GUESS, in the new model implementation, the litter now is divided according to its specific quality and added to the corresponding soil carbon pool. The litter quality thereby differs between litter source (leaves, roots, stems) and plant functional type (broadleaved, needleleaved, grass). The two contrasting model implementations were compared and validated at one specific CarboEuropeIP site (Lägern, Switzerland) and on a broader scale all over Switzerland. Our focus lay on the soil respiration for the years 2006 and 2007 [Rühr(2009)] and present soil carbon stocks [Heim et al.(2009)]. Our Results show, that for short-term soil carbon dynamics, e.g. estimates of heterotrophic soil respiration on an annual basis, the inclusion of the dependency on litter quality is not necessary, as the differences are minor only. However, when considering long-term soil carbon dynamics, e.g. simulated estimates of present soil carbon content, the dependency on litter quality shows effect, as there are correlations with specific site factors such as site location and forest type. The inclusion of the dependence on litter quality therefore may be of importance for the projection of future soil carbon dynamics, as forest types may well be altered due to climatic change. References [Heim et al.(2009)] A. Heim, L. Wehrli, W. Eugster, and M.W.I. Schmidt. Effects of sampling design on the probability to detect soil carbon stock changes at the swiss CarboEurope site Lägeren. Geoderma, 149(3-4):347-354, 2009. [Rühr(2009)] Nadine Katrin Rühr. Soil respiration in a mixed mountain forest : environmental drivers and partitioning of component fluxes. PhD thesis, ETH, 2009. [Smith et al.(2001)] Benjamin Smith, I. Colin Prentice, and Martin T. Sykes. Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within european climate space. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10(6):621-637, 2001. [Tuomi et al.(2008)] Mikko Tuomi, Pekka Vanhala, Kristiina Karhu, Hannu Fritze, and Jari Liski. Heterotrophic soil respiration-Comparison of different models describing its temperature dependence. Ecological Modelling, 211(1-2): 182-190, 2008.

The unseen iceberg: Plant roots in arctic tundra

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Colleen M.; Sloan, Victoria L.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Norby, Richard J.; Walker, Anthony P.; Warren, Jeffrey M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.

2015-01-01

Plant roots play a critical role in ecosystem function in arctic tundra, but root dynamics in these ecosystems are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we synthesized available literature on tundra roots, including their distribution, dynamics and contribution to ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, and highlighted key aspects of their representation in terrestrial biosphere models. Across all tundra ecosystems, belowground plant biomass exceeded aboveground biomass, with the exception of polar desert tundra. Roots were shallowly distributed in the thin layer of soil that thaws annually, and were often found in surface organic soil horizons. Root traits – including distribution, chemistry, anatomy and resource partitioning – play an important role in controlling plant species competition, and therefore ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, under changing climatic conditions, but have only been quantified for a small fraction of tundra plants. Further, the annual production and mortality of fine roots are key components of ecosystem processes in tundra, but extant data are sparse. Tundra root traits and dynamics should be the focus of future research efforts. Better representation of the dynamics and characteristics of tundra roots will improve the utility of models for the evaluation of the responses of tundra ecosystems to changing environmental conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cotton, T. E. Anne; Fitter, Alastair H.; Miller, R. Michael

Understanding the natural dynamics of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and their response to global environmental change is essential for the prediction of future plant growth and ecosystem functions. We investigated the long-term temporal dynamics and effect of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) and ozone (O 3) concentrations on AM fungal communities. Molecular methods were used to characterize the AM fungal communities of soybean ( Glycine max) grown under elevated and ambient atmospheric concentrations of both CO 2 and O 3 within a free air concentration enrichment experiment in three growing seasons over 5 yr. Elevated CO 2 altered themore » community composition of AM fungi, increasing the ratio of Glomeraceae to Gigasporaceae. By contrast, no effect of elevated O 3 on AM fungal communities was detected. However, the greatest compositional differences detected were between years, suggesting that, at least in the short term, large-scale interannual temporal dynamics are stronger mediators than atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of AM fungal communities. We conclude that, although atmospheric change may significantly alter AM fungal communities, this effect may be masked by the influences of natural changes and successional patterns through time. We suggest that changes in carbon availability are important determinants of the community dynamics of AM fungi.« less

Chapter 10 - Wildfire and fire severity effects on post-fire carbon and nitrogen cycling in forest soil (Project NC-EM-F-14-1)

Treesearch

Jessica R. Miesel; Randy Kolka; Phil Townsend

2018-01-01

Fire is a key ecological driver in determining vegetation composition, biomass, and ecosystem dynamics in coniferous forests of the Laurentian Mixed Forest in the Great Lakes region (Cleland and others 2004, Frelich 1995). Regional projections of future climate conditions indicate warmer temperatures, more variable precipitation patterns, and greater moisture stress (...

Concentration-Discharge Relationships, Nested Reaction Fronts, and the Balance of Oxidative and Acid-Base Weathering Fluxes in an Alpine Catchment, East River, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winnick, M.; Carroll, R. W. H.; Williams, K. H.; Maxwell, R. M.; Maher, K.

2016-12-01

Although important for solute production and transport, the varied interactions between biogeochemical processes and subsurface hydrology remain poorly characterized. We investigate these couplings in the headwaters of the East River, CO, a high-elevation shale-dominated catchment system in the Rocky Mountains, using concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships for major cations, anions, and organic carbon. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) displays a positive C-Q relationship with well-defined clockwise hysteresis, indicating the mobilization and depletion of DOC in the upper soil horizons and highlighting the importance of shallow flowpaths through the snowmelt period. Cation and anion concentrations demonstrate that carbonate weathering, which dominates solute fluxes, is promoted by both carbonic acid and sulfuric acid derived from oxidation of pyrite in the shale bedrock. Sulfuric acid weathering in the deep subsurface dominates during base flow conditions when waters have infiltrated below the hypothesized pyrite oxidation front, whereas carbonic acid weathering plays a dominant role during the snowmelt period as a result of shallow flowpaths. Differential C-Q relationships between solutes suggest that infiltrating waters approach calcite saturation before reaching the pyrite oxidation front, after which sulfuric acid reduces carbonate alkalinity. This increase in CO2(aq) at the expense of HCO3- results in outgassing of CO2 when waters equilibrate to surface conditions, and reduces the export of carbon and alkalinity from the East River by roughly 33% annually. Future changes in snowmelt dynamics that control the balance of carbonic and sulfuric acid weathering therefore have the capacity to substantially alter the cycling of carbon in the East River catchment. Ultimately, we demonstrate that differential C-Q relationships between major solutes can provide unique insights into the complex subsurface flow and biogeochemical dynamics that operate at catchment scales.

Large Differences in Global and Regional Total Soil Carbon Stock Estimates Based on SoilGrids, HWSD, and NCSCD: Intercomparison and Evaluation Based on Field Data From USA, England, Wales, and France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tifafi, Marwa; Guenet, Bertrand; Hatté, Christine

2018-01-01

Soils are the major component of the terrestrial ecosystem and the largest organic carbon reservoir on Earth. However, they are a nonrenewable natural resource and especially reactive to human disturbance and climate change. Despite its importance, soil carbon dynamics is an important source of uncertainty for future climate predictions and there is a growing need for more precise information to better understand the mechanisms controlling soil carbon dynamics and better constrain Earth system models. The aim of our work is to compare soil organic carbon stocks given by different global and regional databases that already exist. We calculated global and regional soil carbon stocks at 1 m depth given by three existing databases (SoilGrids, the Harmonized World Soil Database, and the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database). We observed that total stocks predicted by each product differ greatly: it is estimated to be around 3,400 Pg by SoilGrids and is about 2,500 Pg according to Harmonized World Soil Database. This difference is marked in particular for boreal regions where differences can be related to high disparities in soil organic carbon concentration. Differences in other regions are more limited and may be related to differences in bulk density estimates. Finally, evaluation of the three data sets versus ground truth data shows that (i) there is a significant difference in spatial patterns between ground truth data and compared data sets and that (ii) data sets underestimate by more than 40% the soil organic carbon stock compared to field data.

Snowmelt controls on concentration-discharge relationships and the balance of oxidative and acid-base weathering fluxes in an alpine catchment, East River, Colorado: ACID-BASE VERSUS OXIDATIVE WEATHERING FLUXES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winnick, Matthew J.; Carroll, Rosemary W. H.; Williams, Kenneth H.

Although important for riverine solute and nutrient fluxes, the connections between biogeochemical processes and subsurface hydrology remain poorly characterized. We investigate these couplings in the East River, CO, a high-elevation shale-dominated catchment in the Rocky Mountains, using concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships for major cations, anions, and organic carbon. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) displays a positive C-Q relationship with clockwise hysteresis, indicating mobilization and depletion of DOC in the upper soil horizons and emphasizing the importance of shallow flowpaths during snowmelt. Cation and anion concentrations demonstrate that carbonate weathering, which dominates solute fluxes, is promoted by both sulfuric acid derived from pyritemore » oxidation in the shale bedrock and carbonic acid derived from subsurface respiration. Sulfuric acid weathering dominates during baseflow conditions when waters infiltrate below the inferred pyrite oxidation front, whereas carbonic acid weathering plays a dominant role during snowmelt as a result of shallow flowpaths. Differential C-Q relationships between solutes suggest that infiltrating waters approach calcite saturation before reaching the pyrite oxidation front, after which sulfuric acid reduces carbonate alkalinity. This reduction in alkalinity results in CO 2 outgassing when waters equilibrate to surface conditions, and reduces the riverine export of carbon and alkalinity by roughly 33% annually. In conclusion, future changes in snowmelt dynamics that control the balance of carbonic and sulfuric acid weathering may substantially alter carbon cycling in the East River. Ultimately, we demonstrate that differential C-Q relationships between major solutes can provide unique insights into the complex subsurface flow and biogeochemical dynamics that operate at catchment scales.« less

Snowmelt controls on concentration-discharge relationships and the balance of oxidative and acid-base weathering fluxes in an alpine catchment, East River, Colorado: ACID-BASE VERSUS OXIDATIVE WEATHERING FLUXES

DOE PAGES

Winnick, Matthew J.; Carroll, Rosemary W. H.; Williams, Kenneth H.; ...

2017-03-01

Although important for riverine solute and nutrient fluxes, the connections between biogeochemical processes and subsurface hydrology remain poorly characterized. We investigate these couplings in the East River, CO, a high-elevation shale-dominated catchment in the Rocky Mountains, using concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships for major cations, anions, and organic carbon. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) displays a positive C-Q relationship with clockwise hysteresis, indicating mobilization and depletion of DOC in the upper soil horizons and emphasizing the importance of shallow flowpaths during snowmelt. Cation and anion concentrations demonstrate that carbonate weathering, which dominates solute fluxes, is promoted by both sulfuric acid derived from pyritemore » oxidation in the shale bedrock and carbonic acid derived from subsurface respiration. Sulfuric acid weathering dominates during baseflow conditions when waters infiltrate below the inferred pyrite oxidation front, whereas carbonic acid weathering plays a dominant role during snowmelt as a result of shallow flowpaths. Differential C-Q relationships between solutes suggest that infiltrating waters approach calcite saturation before reaching the pyrite oxidation front, after which sulfuric acid reduces carbonate alkalinity. This reduction in alkalinity results in CO 2 outgassing when waters equilibrate to surface conditions, and reduces the riverine export of carbon and alkalinity by roughly 33% annually. In conclusion, future changes in snowmelt dynamics that control the balance of carbonic and sulfuric acid weathering may substantially alter carbon cycling in the East River. Ultimately, we demonstrate that differential C-Q relationships between major solutes can provide unique insights into the complex subsurface flow and biogeochemical dynamics that operate at catchment scales.« less

Mineralogical Controls over Carbon Storage and Residence Times in Grassland Soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwivedi, D.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.; Spycher, N.

2014-12-01

Globally, soil organic matter (SOM) contains approximately three times more carbon than the atmosphere and terrestrial vegetation contain combined. However, it is not well understood why some SOM persists for a long time while other SOM decomposes quickly. For future climate predictions, representing soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics accurately in Earth system models is essential. Soil minerals stabilize organic carbon in soil; however, there are gaps in our understanding of how soil mineralogy controls the quantity and turnover of long-residence-time organic carbon. To investigate the impact of soil mineralogy on SOM dynamics, we used a new model (Biotic and Abiotic Model of SOM—BAMS1 [Riley et al., 2014]) integrated with a three-dimensional, multiphase reactive transport solver (TOUGHREACT). The model represents bacterial and fungal activity, archetypal polymer and monomer carbon substrate groups, aqueous chemistry, gaseous diffusion, aqueous advection and diffusion, and adsorption and desorption processes. BAMS1 can predict bulk SOM and radiocarbon signatures without resorting to an arbitrary depth-dependent decline in SOM turnover rates. Results show a reasonable match between observed and simulated depth-resolved SOM and Δ14C in grassland ecosystems (soils formed on terraces south of Eureka, California, and the Central Chernozem Region of Russia) and were consistent with expectations of depth-resolved profiles of lignin content and fungi:aerobic bacteria ratios. Results also suggest that clay-mineral surface area and soil sorption coefficients constitute dominant controls over organic carbon stocks and residence times, respectively. Bibliography: Riley, W.J., F.M. Maggi, M. Kleber, M.S. Torn, J.Y. Tang, D. Dwivedi, and N. Guerry (2014), Long residence times of rapidly decomposable soil organic matter: application of a multi-phase, multi-component, and vertically resolved model (BAMS1) to soil carbon dynamics, Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 7, 1335-2014, doi:10.5194/gmd-7-1335-2014.

An Interdisciplinary Module on Regulating Carbon Emissions to Mitigate Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penny, S.; Sethi, G.; Smyth, R.; Leibensperger, E. M.; Gervich, C.; Batur, P.

2016-12-01

The dynamics of the unfolding carbon regulatory process presents a unique and timely opportunity to teach students about the grand challenge brought by climate change and the importance of systems thinking and interdisciplinary problem solving. In this poster, we summarize our recently developed 4-week activity-based class module "Regulating Carbon Emissions to Mitigate Climate Change," which we have developed as part of the InTeGrate ("Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future") program. These materials are suitable for introductory non-majors, environmental sciences majors, and political science majors, and we have formally piloted in each of these settings. This module is truly interdisciplinary and spans topics such as the Supreme Court ruling in Massachusetts v. EPA, costs and benefits of carbon abatement, and climate sensitivity. We discuss the unique challenges (and rewards!) that we experienced teaching materials entirely outside one's expertise.

The North American Energy System: Chapter 3 of SOCCR-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurney, K. R.; Marcotullio, P. J.; McGlynn, E.; Bruhwiler, L.; Davis, K. J.; Davis, S. J.; Engel-Cox, J.; Field, J.; Gately, C.; Kammen, D. M.; McMahon, J.; Morrow, W.; Torrie, R.

2017-12-01

North America (Canada, Mexico and the United States), has a large and complex energy system, which in this case includes the extraction and conversion of primary energy sources and their storage, transmission, distribution and ultimate end use in the building, transportation and industrial sectors. The presentation assesses the contribution of this energy system to the carbon cycle. The assessment includes the identification of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use in the different end use, changes over the past 10 years (since the last SOCCR) and the drivers of change. The assessment focuses on our understanding of the energy trends and system feedback dynamics, key drivers of change as a basis for carbon management. The energy systems' carbon emissions from the North American system are placed in global context and a review of scenarios into the future emissions levels, which demonstrate the requirements for de-carbonization in the medium and longer term.

Tropical forest response to elevated CO2: Model-experiment integration at the AmazonFACE site.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankenberg, C.; Berry, J. A.; Guanter, L.; Joiner, J.

2014-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere's response to current and future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the C cycle, climate and ecosystem functioning. In particular, the sensitivity of tropical rainforest ecosystems to eCO­2 is largely unknown even though the importance of tropical forests for biodiversity, carbon storage and regional and global climate feedbacks is unambiguously recognized. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air Carbon Enrichment) project will be the first ecosystem scale eCO2 experiment undertaken in the tropics, as well as the first to be undertaken in a mature forest. AmazonFACE provides the opportunity to integrate ecosystem modeling with experimental observations right from the beginning of the experiment, harboring a two-way exchange, i.e. models provide hypotheses to be tested, and observations deliver the crucial data to test and improve ecosystem models. We present preliminary exploration of observed and expected process responses to eCO2 at the AmazonFACE site from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, highlighting opportunities and pitfalls for model integration of tropical FACE experiments. The preliminary analysis provides baseline hypotheses, which are to be further developed with a follow-up multiple model inter-comparison. The analysis builds on the recently undertaken FACE-MDS (Model-Data Synthesis) project, which was applied to two temperate FACE experiments and exceeds the traditional focus on comparing modeled end-target output. The approach has proven successful in identifying well (and less well) represented processes in models, which are separated for six clusters also here; (1) Carbon fluxes, (2) Carbon pools, (3) Energy balance, (4) Hydrology, (5) Nutrient cycling, and (6) Population dynamics. Simulation performance of observed conditions at the AmazonFACE site (a.o. from Manaus K34 eddy flux tower) will highlight process-based model deficiencies, and aid the separation of uncertainties arising from general ecosystem responses and those responses related to eCO2.

Morphosedimentary evolution of carbonate sandy beaches at decadal scale : case study in Reunion Island , Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahabot, Marie-Myriam; Pennober, Gwenaelle; Suanez, Serge; Troadec, Roland; Delacourt, Christophe

2017-04-01

Global change introduce a lot of uncertainties concerning future trajectory of beaches by directly or indirectly modifying major driving factors. An improved understanding of the past shoreline evolution may help for anticipate future coastline response. However, in tropical environment, studies concerning carbonate beaches dynamics are scarce compared to open sandy beaches. Consequently, coral reef protected beaches morphological adjustment is still poorly understood and long-term evolution rate are poorly quantified in these specific environment. In this context, La Reunion Island, insular department of France located in Indian Ocean, constitute a favoured laboratory. This high volcanic island possesses 25 km of carbonate beaches which experience hydrodynamic forcing specific from tropical environment: cyclonic swell during summer and long period swell during winter. Because of degraded coral reef health and high anthropogenic pressure, 50% of the beaches are in erosion since 1970s. Beach survey has been conducted since 1990s by scientist and are now encompassed as pilot site within a French observatory network which guarantee long-term survey with high resolution observational techniques. Thus, La Reunion Island is one of the rare carbonate beach to be surveyed since 20 years. This study aims to examined and quantify beach response at decadal scale on carbonate sandy beaches of Reunion Island. The study focus on 12 km of beaches from Cap Champagne to the Passe de Trois-Bassins. The analyze of 15 beach profile data originated from historical and DGPS beach topographic data confirm long term trend to erosion. Sediment lost varies between 0.5 and 2 m3.yr-1 since 1998. However longshore current have led to accretion of some part of beach compartment with rate of 0.7 to 1.6 m3.yr-1. Wave climate was examined from in-situ measurement over 15 years and show that extreme waves associated with tropical cyclones and long period swell play a major role in beach dynamics. Swell frequency and intensity are both determinant for beach evolution.

Tropical forest response to elevated CO2: Model-experiment integration at the AmazonFACE site.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, K.

2015-12-01

The terrestrial biosphere's response to current and future elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2) is a large source of uncertainty in future projections of the C cycle, climate and ecosystem functioning. In particular, the sensitivity of tropical rainforest ecosystems to eCO­2 is largely unknown even though the importance of tropical forests for biodiversity, carbon storage and regional and global climate feedbacks is unambiguously recognized. The AmazonFACE (Free-Air Carbon Enrichment) project will be the first ecosystem scale eCO2 experiment undertaken in the tropics, as well as the first to be undertaken in a mature forest. AmazonFACE provides the opportunity to integrate ecosystem modeling with experimental observations right from the beginning of the experiment, harboring a two-way exchange, i.e. models provide hypotheses to be tested, and observations deliver the crucial data to test and improve ecosystem models. We present preliminary exploration of observed and expected process responses to eCO2 at the AmazonFACE site from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, highlighting opportunities and pitfalls for model integration of tropical FACE experiments. The preliminary analysis provides baseline hypotheses, which are to be further developed with a follow-up multiple model inter-comparison. The analysis builds on the recently undertaken FACE-MDS (Model-Data Synthesis) project, which was applied to two temperate FACE experiments and exceeds the traditional focus on comparing modeled end-target output. The approach has proven successful in identifying well (and less well) represented processes in models, which are separated for six clusters also here; (1) Carbon fluxes, (2) Carbon pools, (3) Energy balance, (4) Hydrology, (5) Nutrient cycling, and (6) Population dynamics. Simulation performance of observed conditions at the AmazonFACE site (a.o. from Manaus K34 eddy flux tower) will highlight process-based model deficiencies, and aid the separation of uncertainties arising from general ecosystem responses and those responses related to eCO2.

Applying a Systems Approach to Monitoring and Assessing Climate Change Mitigation Potential in Mexico's Forest Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olguin-Alvarez, M. I.; Wayson, C.; Fellows, M.; Birdsey, R.; Smyth, C.; Magnan, M.; Dugan, A.; Mascorro, V.; Alanís, A.; Serrano, E.; Kurz, W. A.

2017-12-01

Since 2012, the Mexican government through its National Forestry Commission, with support from the Commission for Environmental Cooperation, the Forest Services of Canada and USA, the SilvaCarbon Program and research institutes in Mexico, has made important progress towards the use of carbon dynamics models ("gain-loss" approach) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions monitoring and projections into the future. Here we assess the biophysical mitigation potential of policy alternatives identified by the Mexican Government (e.g. net zero deforestation rate, sustainable forest management) based on a systems approach that models carbon dynamics in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products and substitution benefits in two contrasting states of Mexico. We provide key messages and results derived from the use of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector and a harvested wood products model, parameterized with input data from Mexicós National Forest Monitoring System (e.g. forest inventories, remote sensing, disturbance data). The ultimate goal of this tri-national effort is to develop data and tools for carbon assessment in strategic landscapes in North America, emphasizing the need to include multiple sectors and types of collaborators (scientific and policy-maker communities) to design more comprehensive portfolios for climate change mitigation in accordance with the Paris Agreement of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (e.g. Mid-Century Strategy, NDC goals).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Yingxiang, E-mail: yingxiangcai@ncu.edu.cn; Wang, Hao; Xu, Shengliang

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with homogeneous diameters have been proven to transform into new carbon allotropes under pressure but no studies on the compression of inhomogeneous CNTs have been reported. In this study, we propose to build new carbon allotropes from the bottom-up by applying pressure on symmetry-matched inhomogeneous CNTs. We find that the (3,0) CNT with point group C{sub 3v} and the (6,0) CNT with point group C{sub 6v} form an all sp{sup 3} hybridized hexagonal 3060-Carbon crystal, but the (4,0) CNT with point group D{sub 4h} and the (8,0) CNT with point group D{sub 8h} polymerize into a sp{supmore » 2}+sp{sup 3} hybridized tetragonal 4080-Carbon structure. Their thermodynamic, mechanical and dynamic stabilities show that they are potential carbon allotropes to be experimentally synthesized. The multiporous structures, excellently mechanical properties and special electronic structures (semiconductive 3060-Carbon and semimetallic 4080-Carbon) imply their many potential applications, such as gases purification, hydrogen storage and lightweight semiconductor devices. In addition, we simulate their feature XRD patterns which are helpful for identifying the two carbon crystals in future experimental studies.« less

Self-organized global control of carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Zhenyuan; Fenn, Daniel J.; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

2010-09-01

There is much disagreement concerning how best to control global carbon emissions. We explore quantitatively how different control schemes affect the collective emission dynamics of a population of emitting entities. We uncover a complex trade-off which arises between average emissions (affecting the global climate), peak pollution levels (affecting citizens’ everyday health), industrial efficiency (affecting the nation’s economy), frequency of institutional intervention (affecting governmental costs), common information (affecting trading behavior) and market volatility (affecting financial stability). Our findings predict that a self-organized free-market approach at the level of a sector, state, country or continent can provide better control than a top-down regulated scheme in terms of market volatility and monthly pollution peaks. The control of volatility also has important implications for any future derivative carbon emissions market.

The North American Energy System: Overview of the 3rd Chapter of SOCCR-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcotullio, P. J.

2016-12-01

North America, including Canada, Mexico and the United States, has a large and complex energy system, which includes the extraction and conversion of primary energy sources and their storage, transmission, distribution and ultimate end use in the building, transportation and industrial sectors. The chapter overviews this system focusing on our understanding of the energy trends and system feedback dynamics, key drivers of change, and subsequent carbon emissions and the basis for carbon management. We also put the carbon emissions from the North American system in global context. Highlights include the changes to the system (sources, fuel mix, drivers, infrastructure, etc.,) over the past decade, and a review of scenarios that provide glimpses into future emissions levels and meeting the requirements for decarbonization in the medium and longer term.

Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices

PubMed Central

Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B.; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.

2015-01-01

Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)—a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)—in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model’s regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon—as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting. PMID:26644560

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Ying; Frankenberg, C.; Wood, Jeff D.

Quantifying gross primary production (GPP) remains a major challenge in global carbon cycle research. Spaceborne monitoring of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), an integrative photosynthetic signal of molecular origin, can assist in terrestrial GPP monitoring. However, the extent to which SIF tracks spatiotemporal variations in GPP remains unresolved. Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2)’s SIF data acquisition and fine spatial resolution permit direct validation against ground and airborne observations. Empirical orthogonal function analysis shows consistent spatiotemporal correspondence between OCO-2 SIF and GPP globally. A linear SIF-GPP relationship is also obtained at eddy-flux sites covering diverse biomes, setting the stage for future investigations ofmore » the robustness of such a relationship across more biomes. In conclusion, our findings support the central importance of high-quality satellite SIF for studying terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics.« less

Diver Down: Remote Sensing of Carbon Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimel, D.; Chatterjee, A.; Baker, D. F.; Basu, S.; Denning, A. S.; Schuh, A. E.; Crowell, S.; Jacobson, A. R.; Bowman, K. W.; Liu, J.; O'Dell, C.

2016-12-01

What controls the rate of increase of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere? It may seem self-evident but actually remains mysterious. The increases of CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that dampen or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. The fraction of anthropogenic CO2 remaining in the atmosphere has remained remarkably constant over the last 59 years but has shown recent dynamics and if it changes in the future, will affect the climate impact of any given fossil fuel regime. While greenhouse gases affect the global atmosphere, their sources and sinks are remarkably heterogeneous in time and space, and traditional in situ observing systems do not provide the coverage and resolution to quantify carbon-climate feedbacks or reduce the uncertainty of model predictions. Here we describe an methodology for estimating critical carbon-climate feedback effects of current spaceborne XCO2 measurements, developed by the OCO-2 Flux Group, and applied to OCO-2 and GOSAT data. The methodology allows integration of the space-based carbon budgets with other global data sets, and exposes the impact of residual bias error on the estimated fluxes, allowing the uncertainty of the estimated feedbacks to be quantified. The approach is limited by the short timeseries currently available, but suggests dramatic changes to the carbon cycle over the recent past. We present the methodology, early results and implications for a future, sustained carbon observing system.

Flight-vehicle materials, structures, and dynamics - Assessment and future directions. Vol. 3 - Ceramics and ceramic-matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, Stanley R. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The present volume discusses ceramics and ceramic-matrix composites in prospective aerospace systems, monolithic ceramics, transformation-toughened and whisker-reinforced ceramic composites, glass-ceramic matrix composites, reaction-bonded Si3N4 and SiC composites, and chemical vapor-infiltrated composites. Also discussed are the sol-gel-processing of ceramic composites, the fabrication and properties of fiber-reinforced ceramic composites with directed metal oxidation, the fracture behavior of ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs), the fatigue of fiber-reinforced CMCs, creep and rupture of CMCs, structural design methodologies for ceramic-based materials systems, the joining of ceramics and CMCs, and carbon-carbon composites.

CarboPerm: An interdisciplinary Russian-German project on the formation, turnover and release of carbon in Siberian permafrost landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubrzycki, S.; Bolshiyanov, D.; Eliseev, A. V.; Evgrafova, S.; Fedorova, I.; Glagolev, M.; Grigoriev, M.; Hubberten, H. W.; Knoblauch, C.; Kunitsky, V.; Kutzbach, L.; Reichstein, M.; Rethemeyer, J.; Schirrmeister, L.; Wagner, D.; Zimov, S. A.; Pfeiffer, E.

2013-12-01

Permafrost-affected soils of the northern hemisphere have accumulated large pools of organic carbon (OC) since continuous low temperatures in the permafrost prevented organic carbon decomposition. According to recent estimates these soils contain 1670 Pg of OC, or about 2.5-times the carbon within the global vegetation. Rising arctic temperatures will result in increased permafrost thawing resulting in a mobilization of formerly frozen OC. The degradation of the newly available OC will result in an increased formation of trace gases such as methane and carbon dioxide which can be released to the atmosphere. Rising trace gas concentrations due to permafrost thawing would thereby form a positive feedback on climate warming. CarboPerm, is a joint German-Russian research project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. It comprises multi-disciplinary investigations on the formation, turnover and release of OC in Siberian permafrost. It aims to gain increased understanding of how permafrost-affected landscapes will respond to global warming and how this response will influence the local, regional and global trace gas balance. Permafrost scientists from Russia and Germany will work together at different key sites in the Siberian Arctic. These sites are: the coast and islands at the Dmitry Laptev Strait, the Lena River Delta, and the Kolyma lowlands close to Cherskii. The scientific work packages comprise studies on (i) the origin, properties, and dynamics of fossil carbon, (ii) the age and quality of organic matter, (iii) the recent carbon dynamics in permafrost landscapes, (iv) the microbial transformation of organic carbon in permafrost, and (v) process-driven modeling of soil carbon dynamics in permafrost areas. The coordination will be at the University of Hamburg (scientific), the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Potsdam (logistic) and the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in St. Petersburg. CarboPerm will strengthen permafrost research in underrepresented areas which are hardly accessible to international researchers. The obtained results will improve our understanding of the future development of the sensitive and economically relevant arctic permafrost regions.

Feasibility study for SOFC-GT hybrid locomotive power: Part I. Development of a dynamic 3.5 MW SOFC-GT FORTRAN model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, Andrew S.; Brouwer, Jacob; Samuelsen, G. Scott

2012-09-01

This work presents the development of a dynamic SOFC-GT hybrid system model applied to a long-haul freight locomotive in operation. Given the expectations of the rail industry, the model is used to develop a preliminary analysis of the proposed system's operational capability on conventional diesel fuel as well as natural gas and hydrogen as potential fuels in the future. It is found that operation of the system on all three of these fuels is feasible with favorable efficiencies and reasonable dynamic response. The use of diesel fuel reformate in the SOFC presents a challenge to the electrochemistry, especially as it relates to control and optimization of the fuel utilization in the anode compartment. This is found to arise from the large amount of carbon monoxide in diesel reformate that is fed to the fuel cell, limiting the maximum fuel utilization possible. This presents an opportunity for further investigations into carbon monoxide electrochemical oxidation and/or system integration studies where the efficiency of the fuel reformer can be balanced against the needs of the SOFC.

The characterisation and management of greenhouse gas emissions from fires in northern Australian savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, G. D.; Liedloff, A. C.; Richards, A. E.; Meyer, M.

2016-12-01

Australia is the only OECD country with a significant area of tropical savannas within it borders. Approximately 220 000 km2 of these savannas burn every year releasing 2 to 4 % of Australia's accountable greenhouse gas emissions. Reduction in uncertainty in the quantification of these emissions of methane and nitrous has been fundamental to improving both the national GHG inventory and developing approaches to better manage land to reduce these emissions. Projects to reduce pyrogenic emissions have been adopted across 30% of Australia's high rainfall savannas. Recent work has focussed on quantifying the additional benefit of increased carbon stocks in fine fuel and coarse woody debris (CWD) resulting from improvements in fire management. An integrated set of equations have been developed to enable seemless quantification of emissions and sequestration in these frequently burnt savannas. These show that increases in carbon stored in fine fuel and CWD comprises about 3 times the emissions abatement from improvements in fire management that have been achieved in a project area of 28 000 km2. Future work is focussing on improving the understanding of spatial and temporal variation in fire behaviour across Australia's savanna biome, improvements in quantification of carbon dynamics of CWD and improved quantification of the effects of fire on carbon dynamics in soils of the savannas.

Nanoscale soldering of axially positioned single-walled carbon nanotubes: a molecular dynamics simulation study.

PubMed

Cui, Jianlei; Yang, Lijun; Zhou, Liang; Wang, Yang

2014-02-12

The miniaturization of electronics devices into the nanometer scale is indispensable for next-generation semi-conductor technology. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) are considered to be the promising candidates for future interconnection wires. To study the carbon nanotubes interconnection during nanosoldering, the melting process of nanosolder and nanosoldering process between single-walled carbon nanotubes are simulated with molecular dynamics method. As the simulation results, the melting point of 2 nm silver solder is about 605 K because of high surface energy, which is below the melting temperature of Ag bulk material. In the nanosoldering process simulations, Ag atoms may be dragged into the nanotubes to form different connection configuration, which has no apparent relationship with chirality of SWNTs. The length of core filling nanowires structure has the relationship with the diameter, and it does not become longer with the increasing diameter of SWNT. Subsequently, the dominant mechanism of was analyzed. In addition, as the heating temperature and time, respectively, increases, more Ag atoms can enter the SWNTs with longer length of Ag nanowires. And because of the strong metal bonds, less Ag atoms can remain with the tight atomic structures in the gap between SWNT and SWNT. The preferred interconnection configurations can be achieved between SWNT and SWNT in this paper.

Pools and fluxes of organic matter in a boreal landscape: implications for a safety assessment of a repository for nuclear waste.

PubMed

Kumblad, Linda; Söderbäck, Björn; Löfgren, Anders; Lindborg, Tobias; Wijnbladh, Erik; Kautsky, Ulrik

2006-12-01

To provide information necessary for a license application for a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co is carrying out site investigations, including extensive studies of different parts of the surface ecosystems, at two sites in Sweden. Here we use the output from detailed modeling of the carbon dynamics in the terrestrial, limnic and marine ecosystems to describe and compare major pools and fluxes of organic matter in the Simpevarp area, situated on the southeast coast of Sweden. In this study, organic carbon is used as a proxy for radionuclides incorporated into organic matter. The results show that the largest incorporation of carbon into living tissue occurs in terrestrial catchments. Carbon is accumulated in soil or sediments in all ecosystems, but the carbon pool reaches the highest values in shallow near-land marine basins. The marine basins, especially the outer basins, are dominated by large horizontal water fluxes that transport carbon and any associated contaminants into the Baltic Sea. The results suggest that the near-land shallow marine basins have to be regarded as focal points for accumulation of radionuclides in the Simpevarp area, as they receive a comparatively large amount of carbon as discharge from terrestrial catchments, having a high NPP and a high detrital accumulation in sediments. These focal points may constitute a potential risk for exposure to humans in a future landscape as, due to post-glacial land uplift, previous accumulation bottoms are likely to be used for future agricultural purposes.

Integration of a Physically based Distributed Hydrological Model with a Model of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling: A Case Study at the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastola, S.; Dialynas, Y. G.; Bras, R. L.; Arnone, E.; Noto, L. V.

2015-12-01

The dynamics of carbon and nitrogen cycles, increasingly influenced by human activities, are the key to the functioning of ecosystems. These cycles are influenced by the composition of the substrate, availability of nitrogen, the population of microorganisms, and by environmental factors. Therefore, land management and use, climate change, and nitrogen deposition patterns influence the dynamics of these macronutrients at the landscape scale. In this work a physically based distributed hydrological model, the tRIBS model, is coupled with a process-based multi-compartment model of the biogeochemical cycle to simulate the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen (CN) in the Mameyes River basin, Puerto Rico. The model includes a wide range of processes that influence the movement, production, alteration of nutrients in the landscape and factors that affect the CN cycling. The tRIBS integrates geomorphological and climatic factors that influence the cycling of CN in soil. Implementing the decomposition module into tRIBS makes the model a powerful complement to a biogeochemical observation system and a forecast tool able to analyze the influences of future changes on ecosystem services. The soil hydrologic parameters of the model were obtained using ranges of published parameters and observed streamflow data at the outlet. The parameters of the decomposition module are based on previously published data from studies conducted in the Luquillio CZO (budgets of soil organic matter and CN ratio for each of the dominant vegetation types across the landscape). Hydrological fluxes, wet depositon of nitrogen, litter fall and its corresponding CN ratio drive the decomposition model. The simulation results demonstrate a strong influence of soil moisture dynamics on the spatiotemporal distribution of nutrients at the landscape level. The carbon in the litter pool and the nitrate and ammonia pool respond quickly to soil moisture content. Moreover, the CN ratios of the plant litter have significant influence in the dynamics of CN cycling.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Friend, Andrew D; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F Ian

2014-03-04

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Friend, Andrew D.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T.; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D.; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R.; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F. Ian

2014-01-01

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended. PMID:24344265

Temporal Variation of Wood Density and Carbon in Two Elevational Sites of Pinus cooperi in Relation to Climate Response in Northern Mexico

PubMed Central

Pompa-García, Marín; Venegas-González, Alejandro

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of carbon uptake in forest ecosystems is much needed. Pinus cooperi is a widely distributed species in the Sierra Madre Occidental in northern Mexico and future climatic variations could impact these ecosystems. Here, we analyze the variations of trunk carbon in two populations of P. cooperi situated at different elevational gradients, combining dendrochronological techniques and allometry. Carbon sequestration (50% biomass) was estimated from a specific allometric equation for this species based on: (i) variation of intra-annual wood density and (ii) diameter reconstruction. The results show that the population at a higher elevation had greater wood density, basal area, and hence, carbon accumulation. This finding can be explained by an ecological response of trees to adverse weather conditions, which would cause a change in the cellular structure affecting the within-ring wood density profile. The influence of variations in climate on the maximum density of chronologies showed a positive correlation with precipitation and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index during the winter season, and a negative correlation with maximum temperature during the spring season. Monitoring previous conditions to growth is crucial due to the increased vulnerability to extreme climatic variations on higher elevational sites. We concluded that temporal variability of wood density contributes to a better understanding of environmental historical changes and forest carbon dynamics in Northern Mexico, representing a significant improvement over previous studies on carbon sequestration. Assuming a uniform density according to tree age is incorrect, so this method can be used for environmental mitigation strategies, such as for managing P. cooperi, a dominant species of great ecological amplitude and widely used in forest industries. PMID:27272519

Temporal Variation of Wood Density and Carbon in Two Elevational Sites of Pinus cooperi in Relation to Climate Response in Northern Mexico.

PubMed

Pompa-García, Marín; Venegas-González, Alejandro

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of carbon uptake in forest ecosystems is much needed. Pinus cooperi is a widely distributed species in the Sierra Madre Occidental in northern Mexico and future climatic variations could impact these ecosystems. Here, we analyze the variations of trunk carbon in two populations of P. cooperi situated at different elevational gradients, combining dendrochronological techniques and allometry. Carbon sequestration (50% biomass) was estimated from a specific allometric equation for this species based on: (i) variation of intra-annual wood density and (ii) diameter reconstruction. The results show that the population at a higher elevation had greater wood density, basal area, and hence, carbon accumulation. This finding can be explained by an ecological response of trees to adverse weather conditions, which would cause a change in the cellular structure affecting the within-ring wood density profile. The influence of variations in climate on the maximum density of chronologies showed a positive correlation with precipitation and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index during the winter season, and a negative correlation with maximum temperature during the spring season. Monitoring previous conditions to growth is crucial due to the increased vulnerability to extreme climatic variations on higher elevational sites. We concluded that temporal variability of wood density contributes to a better understanding of environmental historical changes and forest carbon dynamics in Northern Mexico, representing a significant improvement over previous studies on carbon sequestration. Assuming a uniform density according to tree age is incorrect, so this method can be used for environmental mitigation strategies, such as for managing P. cooperi, a dominant species of great ecological amplitude and widely used in forest industries.

Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

Treesearch

S. Sun; Ge Sun; Erika Cohen Mack; Steve McNulty; Peter Caldwell; K. Duan; Y. Zhang

2015-01-01

Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)...

Vascular plant-mediated controls on atmospheric carbon assimilation and peat carbon decomposition under climate change.

PubMed

Gavazov, Konstantin; Albrecht, Remy; Buttler, Alexandre; Dorrepaal, Ellen; Garnett, Mark H; Gogo, Sebastien; Hagedorn, Frank; Mills, Robert T E; Robroek, Bjorn J M; Bragazza, Luca

2018-03-23

Climate change can alter peatland plant community composition by promoting the growth of vascular plants. How such vegetation change affects peatland carbon dynamics remains, however, unclear. In order to assess the effect of vegetation change on carbon uptake and release, we performed a vascular plant-removal experiment in two Sphagnum-dominated peatlands that represent contrasting stages of natural vegetation succession along a climatic gradient. Periodic measurements of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange revealed that vascular plants play a crucial role in assuring the potential for net carbon uptake, particularly with a warmer climate. The presence of vascular plants, however, also increased ecosystem respiration, and by using the seasonal variation of respired CO 2 radiocarbon (bomb- 14 C) signature we demonstrate an enhanced heterotrophic decomposition of peat carbon due to rhizosphere priming. The observed rhizosphere priming of peat carbon decomposition was matched by more advanced humification of dissolved organic matter, which remained apparent beyond the plant growing season. Our results underline the relevance of rhizosphere priming in peatlands, especially when assessing the future carbon sink function of peatlands undergoing a shift in vegetation community composition in association with climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing Historical and Projected Carbon Balance of Alaska: A Synthesis of Results and Policy/Management Implications.

PubMed

McGuire, A David; Genet, Hélène; Lyu, Zhou; Pastick, Neal; Stackpoole, Sarah; Birdsey, Richard; D'Amore, David; He, Yujie; Rupp, T Scott; Striegl, Robert; Wylie, Bruce K; Zhou, Xiaoping; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zhu, Zhiliang

2018-06-20

We summarize the results of a recent interagency assessment of land carbon dynamics in Alaska, in which carbon dynamics were estimated for all major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems for the historical period (1950-2009) and a projection period (2010-2099). Between 1950 and 2009, upland and wetland (i.e., terrestrial) ecosystems of the State gained 0.4 Tg C yr -1 (0.1% of net primary production, NPP), resulting in a cumulative greenhouse gas radiative forcing of 1.68 x 10 -3 W m -2 . The change in carbon storage is spatially variable with the region of the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) losing carbon because of fire disturbance. The combined carbon transport via various pathways through inland aquatic ecosystems of Alaska was estimated to be 41.3 Tg C yr -1 (17% of terrestrial NPP). During the projection period (2010-2099), carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska was projected to increase (22.5 to 70.0 Tg C yr -1 ), primarily because of NPP increases of 10 to 30% associated with responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 , increased nitrogen cycling, and longer growing seasons. Although carbon emissions to the atmosphere from wildfire and wetland CH 4 were projected to increase for all of the climate projections, the increases in NPP more than compensated for those losses at the statewide level. Carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems continue to warm the climate for four of the six future projections, and cool the climate for only one of the projections. The attribution analyses we conducted indicated that the response of NPP in terrestrial ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO 2 (~5% per 100 ppmv CO 2 ) saturates as CO 2 increases (between approximately +150 and +450 ppmv among projections). This response, along with the expectation that permafrost thaw would be much greater and release large quantities of permafrost carbon after 2100, suggests that projected carbon gains in terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska may not be sustained. From a national perspective, inclusion of all of Alaska in greenhouse gas inventory reports would ensure better accounting of the overall greenhouse gas balance of the nation, and provide a foundation for considering mitigation activities in areas that are accessible enough to support substantive deployment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Observations and assessment of forest carbon dynamics following disturbance in North America

Treesearch

S. J. Goetz; B. Bond-Lamberty; B. E. Law; J. A. Hicke; C. Huang; R. A. Houghton; S. McNulty; T. O’Halloran; M. Harmon; A. J. H. Meddens; E. M. Pfeifer; D. Mildrexler; E. S. Kasischke

2012-01-01

Disturbance processes of various types substantially modify ecosystem carbon dynamics both temporally and spatially, and constitute a fundamental part of larger landscape-level dynamics. Forests typically lose carbon for several years to several decades following severe disturbance, but our understanding of the duration and dynamics of post-disturbance forest carbon...

How does soil erosion influence the terrestrial carbon cycle and the impacts of land use and land cover change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naipal, V.; Wang, Y.; Ciais, P.; Guenet, B.; Lauerwald, R.

2017-12-01

The onset of agriculture has accelerated soil erosion rates significantly, mobilizing vast quantities of soil organic carbon (SOC) globally. Studies show that at timescales of decennia to millennia this mobilized SOC can significantly alter previously estimated carbon emissions from land use and land cover change (LULCC). However, a full understanding of the impact of soil erosion on land-atmosphere carbon exchange is still missing. The aim of our study is to better constrain the terrestrial carbon fluxes by developing methods, which are compatible with earth system models (ESMs), and explicitly represent the links between soil erosion and carbon dynamics. For this we use an emulator that represents the carbon cycle of ORCHIDEE, which is the land component of the IPSL ESM, in combination with an adjusted version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. We applied this modeling framework at the global scale to evaluate how soil erosion influenced the terrestrial carbon cycle in the presence of elevated CO2, regional climate change and land use change. Here, we focus on the effects of soil detachment by erosion only and do not consider sediment transport and deposition. We found that including soil erosion in the SOC dynamics-scheme resulted in two times more SOC being lost during the historical period (1850-2005 AD). LULCC is the main contributor to this SOC loss, whose impact on the SOC stocks is significantly amplified by erosion. Regionally, the influence of soil erosion varies significantly, depending on the magnitude of the perturbations to the carbon cycle and the effects of LULCC and climate change on soil erosion rates. We conclude that it is necessary to include soil erosion in assessments of LULCC, and to explicitly consider the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on the carbon cycle and on soil erosion, for better quantification of past, present, and future LULCC carbon emissions.

Carbon dynamics of river corridors and the effects of human alterations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B.

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics inmore » freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.« less

Carbon dynamics of river corridors and the effects of human alterations

DOE PAGES

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B.; ...

2017-06-22

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics inmore » freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.« less

Carbon dynamics of river corridors and the effects of human alterations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B; Sutfin, Nicholas A.; Walters, David

2017-01-01

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics in freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.

Evaluation of coral reef carbonate production models at a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, N. S.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

2015-03-01

Calcification by coral reef communities is estimated to account for half of all carbonate produced in shallow water environments and more than 25% of the total carbonate buried in marine sediments globally. Production of calcium carbonate by coral reefs is therefore an important component of the global carbon cycle; it is also threatened by future global warming and other global change pressures. Numerical models of reefal carbonate production are needed for understanding how carbonate deposition responds to environmental conditions including atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the past and into the future. However, before any projections can be made, the basic test is to establish model skill in recreating present-day calcification rates. Here we evaluate four published model descriptions of reef carbonate production in terms of their predictive power, at both local and global scales. We also compile available global data on reef calcification to produce an independent observation-based data set for the model evaluation of carbonate budget outputs. The four calcification models are based on functions sensitive to combinations of light availability, aragonite saturation (Ωa) and temperature and were implemented within a specifically developed global framework, the Global Reef Accretion Model (GRAM). No model was able to reproduce independent rate estimates of whole-reef calcification, and the output from the temperature-only based approach was the only model to significantly correlate with coral-calcification rate observations. The absence of any predictive power for whole reef systems, even when consistent at the scale of individual corals, points to the overriding importance of coral cover estimates in the calculations. Our work highlights the need for an ecosystem modelling approach, accounting for population dynamics in terms of mortality and recruitment and hence calcifier abundance, in estimating global reef carbonate budgets. In addition, validation of reef carbonate budgets is severely hampered by limited and inconsistent methodology in reef-scale observations.

Identifying forest patterns from space to explore dynamics across the circumpolar boreal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montesano, P. M.; Neigh, C. S. R.; Feng, M.; Channan, S.; Sexton, J. O.; Wagner, W.; Wooten, M.; Poulter, B.; Wang, L.

2017-12-01

A variety of forest patterns are the result of interactions between broad-scale climate and local-scale site factors and history across the northernmost portion of the circumpolar boreal. Patterns of forest extent, height, and cover help describe forest structure transitions that influence future and reflect past dynamics. Coarse spaceborne observations lack structural detail at forest transitions, which inhibits understanding of these dynamics. We highlight: (1) the use of sub-meter spaceborne stereogrammetry for deriving structure estimates in boreal forests; (2) its potential to complement other spaceborne estimates of forest structure at critical scales; and (3) the potential of these sub-meter and other Landsat-derived structure estimates for improving understanding of broad-scale boreal dynamics such as carbon flux and albedo, capturing the spatial variability of the boreal-tundra biome boundary, and assessing its potential for change.

Drought as a driver of declining boreal forest growth: Integrating forest inventory measurements with models to gain insight into underlying mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trugman, A. T.; Medvigy, D.; Anderegg, W.; Caspersen, J.; Zeng, H.; Pacala, S. W.

2016-12-01

Boreal forests contain over 30% of Earth's terrestrial carbon and are an important component of the land carbon sink. However, the future ability of the boreal forest to maintain a net carbon sink is uncertain and depends on potentially compensating interactions of CO2 fertilization, warmer temperatures, and hotter drought conditions. Observational studies have attributed drought as a major driver of recent declines in growth and increases in mortality in many parts of the North American boreal forest. Yet, most vegetation models have a simplistic representation of vegetation water stress and fail to capture drought-associated growth and mortality trends, impacting our ability to accurately forecast the effects of climate change on the boreal forest. Here, we show additional evidence for widespread declines in boreal tree growth and increasing insect-related mortality in aspen trees based on a mixed model analysis of the Cooperative Alaska Forest Inventory. Our findings indicate that the growth decline is controlled by high midsummer potential evapotranspiration that overpowers any CO2 fertilization signal. We also observe a possible shift in the distribution of angiosperm and gymnosperm, a biological transition that could impact long-term local carbon dynamics. Using insight gained from our mixed model analysis, we perform a regional-scale model evaluation using the boreal forest version of Ecosystem Demography model 2 that includes a dynamic soil organic layer, 7 boreal-specific plant functional types, and a fully mechanistic plant hydraulic scheme. We then use both the Alaskan and Canadian Forest Inventories to constrain our hypotheses and assess whether drought related growth declines can be better attributed to tree drought response from (1) carbon starvation, (2) permanent damage of hydraulic machinery, or (3) delayed recovery of hydraulic machinery. Under each of these scenarios we forecast how drought potentially impacts decadal-scale boreal carbon dynamics.

Cross-continental comparison of the functional composition and carbon allocation of two altitudinal forest transects in Ecuador and Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauters, Marijn; Bruneel, Stijn; Demol, Miro; Taveirne, Cys; Van Der Heyden, Dries; Boeckx, Pascal; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Cizungu, Landry; Verbeeck, Hans

2016-04-01

Tropical forests are key actors in the global carbon cycle. Predicting future responses of these forests to global change is challenging, but important for global climate models. However, our current understanding of such responses is limited, due to the complexity of forest ecosystems and the slow dynamics that inherently form these systems. Our understanding of ecosystem ecology and functioning could greatly benefit from experimental setups including strong environmental gradients in the tropics, as found on altitudinal transects. We setup two such transects in both South-America and Africa, focussing on shifts in carbon allocation, forest structure and functional composition. By a cross-continental comparison of both transects, we will gain insight in how different or alike both tropical forests biomes are in their responses, and how universal the observed adaption mechanisms are.

Predicted Water and Carbon Fluxes as well as Vegetation Distribution on the Korean Peninsula in the Future with the Ecosystem Demography Model version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. B.; Kim, Y.

2017-12-01

This study investigates how the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation distribution on the Korean peninsula would vary with climate change. Ecosystem Demography (ED) Model version 2 (ED2) is used in this study, which is an integrated terrestrial biosphere model that can utilize a set of size- and age- structured partial differential equations that track the changing structure and composition of the plant canopy. With using the vegetation distribution data of Jeju Island, located at the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, ED2 is setup and driven for the past 10 years. Then the results of ED2 are evaluated and adjusted with observed forestry data, i.e., growth and mortality, and the flux tower and MODIS satellite data, i.e., evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP). This adjusted ED2 are used to simulate the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation dynamics in the Korean Peninsula for the historical period with evaluating the model against the MODIS satellite data. Finally, the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6 and 6.0 are used to predict the fluxes and vegetation distribution of the Korean Peninsula in the future. With using the state-of-art terrestrial ecosystem model, this study would provide us better understanding of the future ecosystem vulnerability of the Korean Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

In-situ observation of sputtered particles for carbon implanted tungsten during energetic isotope ion implantation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oya, Y.; Sato, M.; Uchimura, H.

2015-03-15

Tungsten is a candidate for plasma facing materials in future fusion reactors. During DT plasma operations, carbon as an impurity will bombard tungsten, leading to the formation of tungsten-carbon (WC) layer and affecting tritium recycling behavior. The effect of carbon implantation for the dynamic recycling of deuterium, which demonstrates tritium recycling, including retention and sputtering, has been investigated using in-situ sputtered particle measurements. The C{sup +} implanted W, WC and HOPG were prepared and dynamic sputtered particles were measured during H{sub 2}{sup +} irradiation. It has been found that the major hydrocarbon species for C{sup +} implanted tungsten is CH{submore » 3}, while for WC and HOPG (Highly Oriented Pyrolytic Graphite) it is CH{sub 4}. The chemical state of hydrocarbon is controlled by the H concentration in a W-C mixed layer. The amount of C-H bond and the retention of H trapped by carbon atom should control the chemical form of hydrocarbon sputtered by H{sub 2}{sup +} irradiation and the desorption of CH{sub 3} and CH{sub 2} are due to chemical sputtering, although that for CH is physical sputtering. The activation energy for CH{sub 3} desorption has been estimated to be 0.4 eV, corresponding to the trapping process of hydrogen by carbon through the diffusion in W. It is concluded that the chemical states of hydrocarbon sputtered by H{sub 2}{sup +} irradiation for W is determined by the amount of C-H bond on the W surface. (authors)« less

Using Imaging Spectrometry measurements of Ecosystem Composition to constrain Regional Predictions of Carbon, Water and Energy Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Huang, M.; Xu, Y.; Stegen, J.

2016-12-01

Ecosystem composition is a key attribute of terrestrial ecosystems, influencing the fluxes of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. The description of current ecosystem composition has traditionally come from relatively few ground-based inventories of the plant canopy, but are spatially limited and do not provide a comprehensive picture of ecosystem composition at regional or global scales. In this analysis, imaging spectrometry measurements, collected as part of the HyspIRI Preparatory Mission, are used to provide spatially-resolved estimates of plant functional type composition providing an important constraint on terrestrial biosphere model predictions of carbon, water and energy fluxes across the heterogeneous landscapes of the Californian Sierras. These landscapes include oak savannas, mid-elevation mixed pines, fir-cedar forests, and high elevation pines. Our results show that imaging spectrometry measurements can be successfully used to estimate regional-scale variation in ecosystem composition and resulting spatial heterogeneity in patterns of carbon, water and energy fluxes and ecosystem dynamics. Simulations at four flux tower sites within the study region yield patterns of seasonal and inter-annual variation in carbon and water fluxes that have comparable accuracy to simulations initialized from ground-based inventory measurements. Finally, results indicate that during the 2012-2015 Californian drought, regional net carbon fluxes fell by 84%, evaporation and transpiration fluxes fell by 53% and 33% respectively, and sensible heat increase by 51%. This study provides a framework for assimilating near-future global satellite imagery estimates of ecosystem composition with terrestrial biosphere models, constraining and improving their predictions of large-scale ecosystem dynamics and functioning.

Using Imaging Spectrometry measurements of Ecosystem Composition to constrain Regional Predictions of Carbon, Water and Energy Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonarakis, A. S.; Bogan, S.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2017-12-01

Ecosystem composition is a key attribute of terrestrial ecosystems, influencing the fluxes of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. The description of current ecosystem composition has traditionally come from relatively few ground-based inventories of the plant canopy, but are spatially limited and do not provide a comprehensive picture of ecosystem composition at regional or global scales. In this analysis, imaging spectrometry measurements, collected as part of the HyspIRI Preparatory Mission, are used to provide spatially-resolved estimates of plant functional type composition providing an important constraint on terrestrial biosphere model predictions of carbon, water and energy fluxes across the heterogeneous landscapes of the Californian Sierras. These landscapes include oak savannas, mid-elevation mixed pines, fir-cedar forests, and high elevation pines. Our results show that imaging spectrometry measurements can be successfully used to estimate regional-scale variation in ecosystem composition and resulting spatial heterogeneity in patterns of carbon, water and energy fluxes and ecosystem dynamics. Simulations at four flux tower sites within the study region yield patterns of seasonal and inter-annual variation in carbon and water fluxes that have comparable accuracy to simulations initialized from ground-based inventory measurements. Finally, results indicate that during the 2012-2015 Californian drought, regional net carbon fluxes fell by 84%, evaporation and transpiration fluxes fell by 53% and 33% respectively, and sensible heat increase by 51%. This study provides a framework for assimilating near-future global satellite imagery estimates of ecosystem composition with terrestrial biosphere models, constraining and improving their predictions of large-scale ecosystem dynamics and functioning.

Structural evolution dynamics in fusion of sumanenes and corannulenes: defects formation and self-healing mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorkin, Anastassia; Su, Haibin

2018-06-01

The fusion processes of structures consisting of various combinations between sumanene and corannulene, leading to the formation of graphene nanoribbons (GNRs) under heating are simulated by density-functional-based tight-binding molecular dynamics. Distinct stages are unraveled in the course of GNR formation. Firstly, the carbon fragments coalescence into highly strained framework. Secondly, structural reconstruction invokes breaking most strained bonds to form a GNR structure containing numerous defects. Lastly, defects are remedied by the delicate ‘edge-facilitated self-healing’ process through two synergized edge-related effects: elevated mobility of defects and promoted structure reconstructions owing to the remarkable dynamics associated with edges. Importantly, detailed dynamics in the course of forming GNRs with defects and grain boundaries simulated in this work is valuable to provide better understanding at the atomistic scale of defect formation as well as self-healing in the context of the sp2 carbon network. In particular, edges play important roles in not only generating Stone–Wales (SW), 5-8-5 types of defects, 8-5-5-8 and pentagon–heptagon grain boundaries. In addition, our simulations predict the existence of one novel defect, coined as the Inverse SW defect, which is to be confirmed in future experimental studies. This study of dynamic structural evolution reveals that edges are prone to intrinsic and extrinsic modifications such as atomic-scale defects, structural distortions and inhomogeneity.

The unseen iceberg: plant roots in arctic tundra.

PubMed

Iversen, Colleen M; Sloan, Victoria L; Sullivan, Patrick F; Euskirchen, Eugenie S; McGuire, A David; Norby, Richard J; Walker, Anthony P; Warren, Jeffrey M; Wullschleger, Stan D

2015-01-01

Plant roots play a critical role in ecosystem function in arctic tundra, but root dynamics in these ecosystems are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we synthesized available literature on tundra roots, including their distribution, dynamics and contribution to ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, and highlighted key aspects of their representation in terrestrial biosphere models. Across all tundra ecosystems, belowground plant biomass exceeded aboveground biomass, with the exception of polar desert tundra. Roots were shallowly distributed in the thin layer of soil that thaws annually, and were often found in surface organic soil horizons. Root traits - including distribution, chemistry, anatomy and resource partitioning - play an important role in controlling plant species competition, and therefore ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, under changing climatic conditions, but have only been quantified for a small fraction of tundra plants. Further, the annual production and mortality of fine roots are key components of ecosystem processes in tundra, but extant data are sparse. Tundra root traits and dynamics should be the focus of future research efforts. Better representation of the dynamics and characteristics of tundra roots will improve the utility of models for the evaluation of the responses of tundra ecosystems to changing environmental conditions. No claim to original US Government works New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Structural Dynamics of Carbon Dots in Water and N, N-Dimethylformamide Probed by All-Atom Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

PubMed

Paloncýová, Markéta; Langer, Michal; Otyepka, Michal

2018-04-10

Carbon dots (CDs), one of the youngest members of the carbon nanostructure family, are now widely experimentally studied for their tunable fluorescence properties, bleaching resistance, and biocompatibility. Their interaction with biomolecular systems has also been explored experimentally. However, many atomistic details still remain unresolved. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations enabling atomistic and femtosecond resolutions simultaneously are a well-established tool of computational chemistry which can provide useful insights into investigated systems. Here we present a full procedure for performing MD simulations of CDs. We developed a builder for generating CDs of a desired size and with various oxygen-containing surface functional groups. Further, we analyzed the behavior of various CDs differing in size, surface functional groups, and degrees of functionalization by MD simulations. These simulations showed that surface functionalized CDs are stable in a water environment through the formation of an extensive hydrogen bonding network. We also analyzed the internal dynamics of individual layers of CDs and evaluated the role of surface functional groups on CD stability. We observed that carboxyl groups interconnected the neighboring layers and decreased the rate of internal rotations. Further, we monitored changes in the CD shape caused by an excess of charged carboxyl groups or carbonyl groups. In addition to simulations in water, we analyzed the behavior of CDs in the organic solvent DMF, which decreased the stability of pure CDs but increased the level of interlayer hydrogen bonding. We believe that the developed protocol, builder, and parameters will facilitate future studies addressing various aspects of structural features of CDs and nanocomposites containing CDs.

Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

DOE PAGES

Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; ...

2017-06-01

Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. We show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. And whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (r TG,P = 0.59, p

Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.

Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (r TG,P=0.59, p<0.01), the post Lamore » Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (r PG,T=-0.46, p=0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.« less

Global land carbon sink response to temperature and precipitation varies with ENSO phase

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.; Schwalm, Christopher R.

Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. We show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. And whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (r TG,P = 0.59, p

Ultrafast Spectroscopy Reveals Electron-Transfer Cascade That Improves Hydrogen Evolution with Carbon Nitride Photocatalysts.

PubMed

Corp, Kathryn L; Schlenker, Cody W

2017-06-14

Solar hydrogen generation from water represents a compelling component of a future sustainable energy portfolio. Recently, chemically robust heptazine-based polymers known as graphitic carbon nitrides (g-C 3 N 4 ) have emerged as promising photocatalysts for hydrogen evolution using visible light while withstanding harsh chemical environments. However, since g-C 3 N 4 electron-transfer dynamics are poorly understood, rational design rules for improving activity remain unclear. Here, we use visible and near-infrared femtosecond transient absorption (TA) spectroscopy to reveal an electron-transfer cascade that correlates with a near-doubling in photocatalytic activity from 2050 to 3810 μmol h -1 g -1 when we infuse a suspension of bulk g-C 3 N 4 with 10% mass loading of chemically exfoliated carbon nitride. TA spectroscopy indicates that exfoliated carbon nitride quenches photogenerated electrons on g-C 3 N 4 at rates approaching the molecular diffusion limit. The TA signal for photogenerated electrons on g-C 3 N 4 decays with a time constant of 1/k e ' = 660 ps in the mixture versus 1/k e = 4.1 ns in g-C 3 N 4 alone. Our TA measurements suggest that the charge generation efficiency in g-C 3 N 4 is greater than 65%. Exfoliated carbon nitride, which liberates only trace hydrogen levels when photoexcited directly, does not appear to independently sustain appreciable long-lived charge generation. Thus, the activity enhancement in the two-component infusion evidently results from a cooperative effect in which charge is generated on g-C 3 N 4 , followed by electron transfer to exfoliated carbon nitride containing photocatalytic chain terminations. This correlation between electron transfer and photocatalytic activity provides new insight into structural modifications for controlling charge separation dynamics and activity of carbon-based photocatalysts.

Edge effects resulting from forest fragmentation enhance carbon uptake and its vulnerability to climate change in temperate broadleaf forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinmann, A.; Hutyra, L.

2016-12-01

Forest fragmentation resulting from land use and land cover change is a ubiquitous, ongoing global phenomenon with profound impacts on the growing conditions of the world's remaining forest. However, our understanding of forest carbon dynamics and their response to climate largely comes from unfragmented forest systems, which presents an important mismatch between the landscapes we study and those we aim to characterize. The temperate broadleaf forest makes a large contribution to the global terrestrial carbon sink, but is also the most heavily fragmented forest biome in the world. We use field measurements and geospatial analyses to characterize carbon dynamics in temperate broadleaf forest fragments. We show that forest growth and biomass increase by 89 ± 17% and 64 ± 12%, respectively, from the forest interior to edge. These ecosystem edge enhancements are not currently captured by models or approaches to quantifying regional C balance, but across southern New England, USA it increases carbon uptake and storage by 12.5 ± 2.9% and 9.6 ± 1.4%, respectively. However, we also find that forest growth near the edge declines three times faster than in the interior in response to heat stress during the growing season. Using climate projections, we show that future heat stress could reduce the forest edge growth enhancement by one-third by the end of the century. These findings contrast studies of edge effects in the world's other major forest biomes and indicate that the strength of the temperate broadleaf forest carbon sink and its capacity to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions may be stronger, but also more sensitive to climate change than previous estimates suggest.

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina; Jiang, Leiwen; Pachauri, Shonali; Zigova, Katarina

2010-10-12

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Effects of Climate Change and Organic Matter Amendments on the Fate of Soil Carbon and the Global Warming Potential of CO2, CH4, and N2O Emissions in an Upland Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmonds, M.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

2017-12-01

Our current understanding of the mechanisms driving carbon stabilization in soil organic matter (SOM) and its release to the atmosphere is insufficient for predicting the response of soil carbon dynamics to future climatic conditions. The persistence of SOM has been studied primarily within the context of biochemical, physical, and geochemical protection from decomposition. More recently, bioenergetic constraints on SOM decomposition due to oxygen limitations have been demonstrated in submerged soils. However, the relevance of anaerobic domains in upland soils is uncertain. To better understand how upland soils will respond to climate change, we conducted a 52-day incubation of an upland soil at constant soil moisture (field capacity) under varying air temperatures (32°C and 37°C), CO2 concentrations (398 and 850 ppmv), and soil organic carbon contents (1.3%, 2.4%). Overall, we observed a stimulatory effect of future climate (elevated temperature and CO2) and higher carbon inputs on net SOM mineralization rates (higher CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions). Importantly, CH4 emissions were observed in the soils with added plant residue, indicating anaerobic microsites are relevant in upland soils, and significantly impact microbial respiration pathways, rates of SOM mineralization, and the global warming potential of trace gas emissions. These findings have important implications for positive soil carbon-climate feedbacks, and warrant further investigation into representing anaerobic soil domains of upland soils in biogeochemical models.

Long-term rice cultivation stabilizes soil organic carbon and promotes soil microbial activity in a salt marsh derived soil chronosequence

PubMed Central

Wang, Ping; Liu, Yalong; Li, Lianqing; Cheng, Kun; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Zheng, Jinwei; Joseph, Stephen; Pan, Genxing

2015-01-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration with enhanced stable carbon storage has been widely accepted as a very important ecosystem property. Yet, the link between carbon stability and bio-activity for ecosystem functioning with OC accumulation in field soils has not been characterized. We assessed the changes in microbial activity versus carbon stability along a paddy soil chronosequence shifting from salt marsh in East China. We used mean weight diameter, normalized enzyme activity (NEA) and carbon gain from straw amendment for addressing soil aggregation, microbial biochemical activity and potential C sequestration, respectively. In addition, a response ratio was employed to infer the changes in all analyzed parameters with prolonged rice cultivation. While stable carbon pools varied with total SOC accumulation, soil respiration and both bacterial and fungal diversity were relatively constant in the rice soils. Bacterial abundance and NEA were positively but highly correlated to total SOC accumulation, indicating an enhanced bio-activity with carbon stabilization. This could be linked to an enhancement of particulate organic carbon pool due to physical protection with enhanced soil aggregation in the rice soils under long-term rice cultivation. However, the mechanism underpinning these changes should be explored in future studies in rice soils where dynamic redox conditions exist. PMID:26503629

Long-term rice cultivation stabilizes soil organic carbon and promotes soil microbial activity in a salt marsh derived soil chronosequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ping; Liu, Yalong; Li, Lianqing; Cheng, Kun; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Zheng, Jinwei; Joseph, Stephen; Pan, Genxing

2015-10-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration with enhanced stable carbon storage has been widely accepted as a very important ecosystem property. Yet, the link between carbon stability and bio-activity for ecosystem functioning with OC accumulation in field soils has not been characterized. We assessed the changes in microbial activity versus carbon stability along a paddy soil chronosequence shifting from salt marsh in East China. We used mean weight diameter, normalized enzyme activity (NEA) and carbon gain from straw amendment for addressing soil aggregation, microbial biochemical activity and potential C sequestration, respectively. In addition, a response ratio was employed to infer the changes in all analyzed parameters with prolonged rice cultivation. While stable carbon pools varied with total SOC accumulation, soil respiration and both bacterial and fungal diversity were relatively constant in the rice soils. Bacterial abundance and NEA were positively but highly correlated to total SOC accumulation, indicating an enhanced bio-activity with carbon stabilization. This could be linked to an enhancement of particulate organic carbon pool due to physical protection with enhanced soil aggregation in the rice soils under long-term rice cultivation. However, the mechanism underpinning these changes should be explored in future studies in rice soils where dynamic redox conditions exist.

Long-term rice cultivation stabilizes soil organic carbon and promotes soil microbial activity in a salt marsh derived soil chronosequence.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Liu, Yalong; Li, Lianqing; Cheng, Kun; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Zheng, Jinwei; Joseph, Stephen; Pan, Genxing

2015-10-27

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration with enhanced stable carbon storage has been widely accepted as a very important ecosystem property. Yet, the link between carbon stability and bio-activity for ecosystem functioning with OC accumulation in field soils has not been characterized. We assessed the changes in microbial activity versus carbon stability along a paddy soil chronosequence shifting from salt marsh in East China. We used mean weight diameter, normalized enzyme activity (NEA) and carbon gain from straw amendment for addressing soil aggregation, microbial biochemical activity and potential C sequestration, respectively. In addition, a response ratio was employed to infer the changes in all analyzed parameters with prolonged rice cultivation. While stable carbon pools varied with total SOC accumulation, soil respiration and both bacterial and fungal diversity were relatively constant in the rice soils. Bacterial abundance and NEA were positively but highly correlated to total SOC accumulation, indicating an enhanced bio-activity with carbon stabilization. This could be linked to an enhancement of particulate organic carbon pool due to physical protection with enhanced soil aggregation in the rice soils under long-term rice cultivation. However, the mechanism underpinning these changes should be explored in future studies in rice soils where dynamic redox conditions exist.

Bayesian Evaluation of Dynamical Soil Carbon Models Using Soil Carbon Flux Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, H. W.; Romero-Olivares, A.; Guindani, M.; Allison, S. D.

2017-12-01

2016 was Earth's hottest year in the modern temperature record and the third consecutive record-breaking year. As the planet continues to warm, temperature-induced changes in respiration rates of soil microbes could reduce the amount of carbon sequestered in the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool, one of the largest terrestrial stores of carbon. This would accelerate temperature increases. In order to predict the future size of the SOC pool, mathematical soil carbon models (SCMs) describing interactions between the biosphere and atmosphere are needed. SCMs must be validated before they can be chosen for predictive use. In this study, we check two SCMs called CON and AWB for consistency with observed data using Bayesian goodness of fit testing that can be used in the future to compare other models. We compare the fit of the models to longitudinal soil respiration data from a meta-analysis of soil heating experiments using a family of Bayesian goodness of fit metrics called information criteria (IC), including the Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC), the Leave-One-Out Information Criterion (LOOIC), and the Log Pseudo Marginal Likelihood (LPML). These IC's take the entire posterior distribution into account, rather than just one outputted model fit line. A lower WAIC and LOOIC and larger LPML indicate a better fit. We compare AWB and CON with fixed steady state model pool sizes. At equivalent SOC, dissolved organic carbon, and microbial pool sizes, CON always outperforms AWB quantitatively by all three IC's used. AWB monotonically improves in fit as we reduce the SOC steady state pool size while fixing all other pool sizes, and the same is almost true for CON. The AWB model with the lowest SOC is the best performing AWB model, while the CON model with the second lowest SOC is the best performing model. We observe that AWB displays more changes in slope sign and qualitatively displays more adaptive dynamics, which prevents AWB from being fully ruled out for predictive use, but based on IC's, CON is clearly the superior model for fitting the data. Hence, we demonstrate that Bayesian goodness of fit testing with information criteria helps us rigorously determine the consistency of models with data. Models that demonstrate their consistency to multiple data sets with our approach can then be selected for further refinement.

Diagnosis and Quantification of Climatic Sensitivity of Carbon Fluxes in Ensemble Global Ecosystem Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R.

2011-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystem models are primary scientific tools to extrapolate our understanding of ecosystem functioning from point observations to global scales as well as from the past climatic conditions into the future. However, no model is nearly perfect and there are often considerable structural uncertainties existing between different models. Ensemble model experiments thus become a mainstream approach in evaluating the current status of global carbon cycle and predicting its future changes. A key task in such applications is to quantify the sensitivity of the simulated carbon fluxes to climate variations and changes. Here we develop a systematic framework to address this question solely by analyzing the inputs and the outputs from the models. The principle of our approach is to assume the long-term (~30 years) average of the inputs/outputs as a quasi-equlibrium of the climate-vegetation system while treat the anomalies of carbon fluxes as responses to climatic disturbances. In this way, the corresponding relationships can be largely linearized and analyzed using conventional time-series techniques. This method is used to characterize three major aspects of the vegetation models that are mostly important to global carbon cycle, namely the primary production, the biomass dynamics, and the ecosystem respiration. We apply this analytical framework to quantify the climatic sensitivity of an ensemble of models including CASA, Biome-BGC, LPJ as well as several other DGVMs from previous studies, all driven by the CRU-NCEP climate dataset. The detailed analysis results are reported in this study.

Development of Return Period Inundation Maps In A Changing Climate Using a Systems of Systems Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Alizad, K.; Passeri, D. L.; Irish, J. L.

2016-12-01

Worldwide, coastal land margins are experiencing increased vulnerability from natural and manmade disasters [Nicholls et al., 1999]. Specifically, coastal flooding is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular. A systems of systems (SoS) approach has been implemented to better understand the dynamic and nonlinear effects of SLR on tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding along a low-gradient coastal landscape (northern Gulf of Mexico [NGOM]). The backbone of the SoS framework is a high-resolution, physics-based, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model [Bilskie et al., 2016a] that includes systems of SLR scenarios [Parris et al., 2012], shoreline morphology [Passeri et al., 2016; Plant et al., 2016], marsh evolution [Alizad et al., 2016], and population dynamics driven by carbon emission scenarios [Bilskie et al., 2016b]. Prior to considering future conditions, the storm surge model was comprehensively validated for present-day conditions [Bilskie et al., 2016a]. The present-day model was then modified to represent the potential future landscape based on four SLR scenarios prescribed by Parris et al. [2012] linked to carbon emissions scenarios for the year 2100. Numerical simulations forced by hundreds of synthetic tropical cyclones were performed and the results facilitate the development of return period inundation maps across the NGOM that reflect changes to the coastal landscape. The SoS approach allows new patterns and properties to emerge (i.e. nonlinear and dynamic effects of SLR) that would otherwise be unobserved using a static SLR model.

Carbon Nanotube Driver Circuit for 6 × 6 Organic Light Emitting Diode Display

PubMed Central

Zou, Jianping; Zhang, Kang; Li, Jingqi; Zhao, Yongbiao; Wang, Yilei; Pillai, Suresh Kumar Raman; Volkan Demir, Hilmi; Sun, Xiaowei; Chan-Park, Mary B.; Zhang, Qing

2015-01-01

Single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) is expected to be a very promising material for flexible and transparent driver circuits for active matrix organic light emitting diode (AM OLED) displays due to its high field-effect mobility, excellent current carrying capacity, optical transparency and mechanical flexibility. Although there have been several publications about SWNT driver circuits, none of them have shown static and dynamic images with the AM OLED displays. Here we report on the first successful chemical vapor deposition (CVD)-grown SWNT network thin film transistor (TFT) driver circuits for static and dynamic AM OLED displays with 6 × 6 pixels. The high device mobility of ~45 cm2V−1s−1 and the high channel current on/off ratio of ~105 of the SWNT-TFTs fully guarantee the control capability to the OLED pixels. Our results suggest that SWNT-TFTs are promising backplane building blocks for future OLED displays. PMID:26119218

Carbon dioxide dynamics in an artificial ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Enzhu; Hu, Dawei; Tong, Ling; Li, Ming; Fu, Yuming; He, Wenting; Liu, Hong

An experimental artificial ecosystem was established as a tool to understand the behavior of closed ecosystem and to develop the technology for a future bioregenerative life support system for lunar or planetary exploration. Total effective volume of the system is 0.7 m3 . It consists of a higher plant chamber, an animal chamber and a photo-bioreactor which cultivated lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.), silkworm (Bombyx Mori L.) and microalgae (Chlorella), respectively. For uniform and sustained observations, lettuce and silkworms was cultivated using sequential cultivation method, and microalgae using continuous culture. Four researchers took turns breathing the system air through a tube for brief periods every few hours. A mathematic model, simulating the carbon dioxide dynamics was developed. The main biological parameters concerning photosynthesis of lettuce and microalgae, respiration of silkworms and human were validated by the experimental data. The model described the respiratory relationship between autotrophic and heterotrophic compartments. A control strategy was proposed as a tool for the atmosphere management of the artificial ecosystem.

Enhancement of phytoplankton chlorophyll by submesoscale frontal dynamics in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre.

PubMed

Liu, Xiao; Levine, Naomi M

2016-02-28

Subtropical gyres contribute significantly to global ocean productivity. As the climate warms, the strength of these gyres as a biological carbon pump is predicted to diminish due to increased stratification and depleted surface nutrients. We present results suggesting that the impact of submesoscale physics on phytoplankton in the oligotrophic ocean is substantial and may either compensate or exacerbate future changes in carbon cycling. A new statistical tool was developed to quantify surface patchiness from sea surface temperatures. Chlorophyll concentrations in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre were shown to be enhanced by submesoscale frontal dynamics with an average increase of 38% (maximum of 83%) during late winter. The magnitude of this enhancement is comparable to the observed decline in chlorophyll due to a warming of ~1.1°C. These results highlight the need for an improved understanding of fine-scale physical variability in order to predict the response of marine ecosystems to projected climate changes.

Enhancement of phytoplankton chlorophyll by submesoscale frontal dynamics in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiao; Levine, Naomi M.

2016-02-01

Subtropical gyres contribute significantly to global ocean productivity. As the climate warms, the strength of these gyres as a biological carbon pump is predicted to diminish due to increased stratification and depleted surface nutrients. We present results suggesting that the impact of submesoscale physics on phytoplankton in the oligotrophic ocean is substantial and may either compensate or exacerbate future changes in carbon cycling. A new statistical tool was developed to quantify surface patchiness from sea surface temperatures. Chlorophyll concentrations in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre were shown to be enhanced by submesoscale frontal dynamics with an average increase of 38% (maximum of 83%) during late winter. The magnitude of this enhancement is comparable to the observed decline in chlorophyll due to a warming of ~1.1°C. These results highlight the need for an improved understanding of fine-scale physical variability in order to predict the response of marine ecosystems to projected climate changes.

Applying Hillslope Hydrology to Bridge between Ecosystem and Grid-Scale Processes within an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subin, Z. M.; Sulman, B. N.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

2013-12-01

Soil moisture is a crucial control on surface energy fluxes, vegetation properties, and soil carbon cycling. Its interactions with ecosystem processes are highly nonlinear across a large range, as both drought stress and anoxia can impede vegetation and microbial growth. Earth System Models (ESMs) generally only represent an average soil-moisture state in grid cells at scales of 50-200 km, and as a result are not able to adequately represent the effects of subgrid heterogeneity in soil moisture, especially in regions with large wetland areas. We addressed this deficiency by developing the first ESM-coupled subgrid hillslope-hydrological model, TiHy (Tiled-hillslope Hydrology), embedded within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model. In each grid cell, one or more representative hillslope geometries are discretized into land model tiles along an upland-to-lowland gradient. These geometries represent ~1 km hillslope-scale hydrological features and allow for flexible representation of hillslope profile and plan shapes, in addition to variation of subsurface properties among or within hillslopes. Each tile (which may represent ~100 m along the hillslope) has its own surface fluxes, vegetation state, and vertically-resolved state variables for soil physics and biogeochemistry. Resolution of water state in deep layers (~200 m) down to bedrock allows for physical integration of groundwater transport with unsaturated overlying dynamics. Multiple tiles can also co-exist at the same vertical position along the hillslope, allowing the simulation of ecosystem heterogeneity due to disturbance. The hydrological model is coupled to the vertically-resolved Carbon, Organisms, Respiration, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model, which captures non-linearity resulting from interactions between vertically-heterogeneous soil carbon and water profiles. We present comparisons of simulated water table depth to observations. We examine sensitivities to alternative parameterizations of hillslope geometry, macroporosity, and surface runoff / inundation, and to the choice of global topographic dataset and groundwater hydraulic conductivity distribution. Simulated groundwater dynamics among hillslopes tend to cluster into three regimes of wet and well-drained, wet but poorly-drained, and dry. In the base model configuration, near-surface gridcell-mean water tables exist in an excessively large area compared to observations, including large areas of the Eastern U.S. and Northern Europe. However, in better-drained areas, the decrease in water table depth along the hillslope gradient allows for realistic increases in ecosystem water availability and soil carbon downslope. The inclusion of subgrid hydrology can increase the equilibrium 0-2 m global soil carbon stock by a large factor, due to the nonlinear effect of anoxia. We conclude that this innovative modeling framework allows for the inclusion of hillslope-scale processes and the potential for wetland dynamics in an ESM without need for a high-resolution 3-dimensional groundwater model. Future work will include investigating the potential for future changes in land carbon fluxes caused by the effects of changing hydrological regime, particularly in peatland-rich areas poorly treated by current ESMs.

Carbon and Nitrogen dynamics in deciduous and broad leaf trees under drought stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joseph, Jobin; Schaub, Marcus; Arend, Matthias; Saurer, Matthias; siegwolf, Rolf; Weiler, Markus; Gessler, Arthur

2017-04-01

Climate change is projected to lead to an increased frequency and duration of severe drought events in future. Already within the last twenty years, however, drought stress related forest mortality has been increasing across the globe. Tree and forest die off events have multiple adverse effects on ecosystem functioning and might convert previous carbon sinks to act as carbon sources instead and can thus intensify the effect of climate change and global warming. Current predictions of forest's functioning under drought and thus forest mortality under future climatic conditions are constrained by a still incomplete picture of the trees' physiological reactions that allows some trees to survive drought periods while others succumb. Concerning the effects of drought on the carbon balance and on tree hydraulics our picture is getting more complete, but still interactions between abiotic factors and pest and diseases as well as the interaction between carbon and nutrient balances as factors affecting drought induced mortality are not well understood. Reduced carbon allocation from shoots to roots might cause a lack of energy for root nutrient uptake and to a shortage of carbon skeletons for nitrogen assimilation and thus to an impaired nutrient status of trees. To tackle these points, we have performed a drought stress experiment with six different plant species, 3 broad leaf (maple, beech and oak) and 3 deciduous (pine, fir and spruce). Potted two-year-old seedlings were kept inside a greenhouse for 5 months and 3 levels of drought stress (no stress (control), intermediate and intensive drought stress) were applied by controlling water supply. Gas exchange measurements were performed periodically to monitor photosynthesis, transpiration, stomatal conductance. At the pinnacle of drought stress, we applied isotopic pulse labelling: On the one hand we exposed trees to 13CO2 to investigate on carbon dynamics and the allocation of new assimilates within the plant. Moreover, we labelled the soil with 15N nitrate by injecting nitrate solution into the soil without strongly changing the water content for investigating nitrogen uptake and distribution along different compartments of the plant soil continuum. We observed a distinct difference in the carbon and nitrogen dynamics and allocation pattern between broad leaf and conifer seedlings. Broad leaf species showed a lower reduction of CO2 assimilation under drought and still allocated significant amounts of the new assimilates to the roots. Especially in maple and oak the belowground transfer of assimilates was kept at high levels even under severe drought stress, while there was a reduction in assimilation transport in beech. Instead, only small amounts of 13C labelled new assimilates arrived in the roots of conifers in the drought treatments. In the deciduous species 15N taken up the roots was more intensively allocated to aboveground tissues compared to conifers under control conditions, which retained the largest amounts within the fine roots. 15N uptake was reduced in the drought treatments in all species assessed. There was, however, no clear relation of this reduction to changes in 13C allocation to the roots. We thus cannot conclude that the reduction of nitrogen uptake is due to reduced transport of new assimilates belowground. We thus need to assume that carbon storage is sufficient to provide energy and carbon for nitrogen uptake and assimilation at least over the short-term. During longer drought periods, however, depletion of carbon stores might adversely affect the nutrient uptake and balance of trees.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wohl, Ellen; Hall, Robert O.; Lininger, Katherine B.

Research in stream metabolism, gas exchange, and sediment dynamics indicates that rivers are an active component of the global carbon cycle and that river form and process can influence partitioning of terrestrially derived carbon among the atmosphere, geosphere, and ocean. Here we develop a conceptual model of carbon dynamics (inputs, outputs, and storage of organic carbon) within a river corridor, which includes the active channel and the riparian zone. The exchange of carbon from the channel to the riparian zone represents potential for storage of transported carbon not included in the “active pipe” model of organic carbon (OC) dynamics inmore » freshwater systems. The active pipe model recognizes that river processes influence carbon dynamics, but focuses on CO2 emissions from the channel and eventual delivery to the ocean. We also review how human activities directly and indirectly alter carbon dynamics within river corridors. We propose that dams create the most significant alteration of carbon dynamics within a channel, but that alteration of riparian zones, including the reduction of lateral connectivity between the channel and riparian zone, constitutes the most substantial change of carbon dynamics in river corridors. We argue that the morphology and processes of a river corridor regulate the ability to store, transform, and transport OC, and that people are pervasive modifiers of river morphology and processes. The net effect of most human activities, with the notable exception of reservoir construction, appears to be that of reducing the ability of river corridors to store OC within biota and sediment, which effectively converts river corridors to OC sources rather than OC sinks. We conclude by summarizing knowledge gaps in OC dynamics and the implications of our findings for managing OC dynamics within river corridors.« less

Experimental evolution and the dynamics of adaptation and genome evolution in microbial populations.

PubMed

Lenski, Richard E

2017-10-01

Evolution is an on-going process, and it can be studied experimentally in organisms with rapid generations. My team has maintained 12 populations of Escherichia coli in a simple laboratory environment for >25 years and 60 000 generations. We have quantified the dynamics of adaptation by natural selection, seen some of the populations diverge into stably coexisting ecotypes, described changes in the bacteria's mutation rate, observed the new ability to exploit a previously untapped carbon source, characterized the dynamics of genome evolution and used parallel evolution to identify the genetic targets of selection. I discuss what the future might hold for this particular experiment, briefly highlight some other microbial evolution experiments and suggest how the fields of experimental evolution and microbial ecology might intersect going forward.

Spatial arrangement of organic compounds on a model mineral surface: implications for soil organic matter stabilization.

PubMed

Petridis, Loukas; Ambaye, Haile; Jagadamma, Sindhu; Kilbey, S Michael; Lokitz, Bradley S; Lauter, Valeria; Mayes, Melanie A

2014-01-01

The complexity of the mineral-organic carbon interface may influence the extent of stabilization of organic carbon compounds in soils, which is important for global climate futures. The nanoscale structure of a model interface was examined here by depositing films of organic carbon compounds of contrasting chemical character, hydrophilic glucose and amphiphilic stearic acid, onto a soil mineral analogue (Al2O3). Neutron reflectometry, a technique which provides depth-sensitive insight into the organization of the thin films, indicates that glucose molecules reside in a layer between Al2O3 and stearic acid, a result that was verified by water contact angle measurements. Molecular dynamics simulations reveal the thermodynamic driving force behind glucose partitioning on the mineral interface: The entropic penalty of confining the less mobile glucose on the mineral surface is lower than for stearic acid. The fundamental information obtained here helps rationalize how complex arrangements of organic carbon on soil mineral surfaces may arise.

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon.

PubMed

Galford, Gillian L; Melillo, Jerry M; Kicklighter, David W; Cronin, Timothy W; Cerri, Carlos E P; Mustard, John F; Cerri, Carlos C

2010-11-16

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

Impacts of agricultural management and climate change on future soil organic carbon dynamics in North China Plain.

PubMed

Wang, Guocheng; Li, Tingting; Zhang, Wen; Yu, Yongqiang

2014-01-01

Dynamics of cropland soil organic carbon (SOC) in response to different management practices and environmental conditions across North China Plain (NCP) were studied using a modeling approach. We identified the key variables driving SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (10 km × 10 km) and long time scale (90 years). The model used future climatic data from the FGOALS model based on four future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration scenarios. Agricultural practices included different rates of nitrogen (N) fertilization, manure application, and stubble retention. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the management practices of stubble retention (linearly positive), manure application (linearly positive) and nitrogen fertilization (nonlinearly positive) - and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative). Temperature had weakly positive effects, while precipitation had negligible impacts on SOC dynamics under current irrigation management. The effects of increased N fertilization on SOC changes were most significant between the rates of 0 and 300 kg ha-1 yr-1. With a moderate rate of manure application (i.e., 2000 kg ha-1 yr-1), stubble retention (i.e., 50%), and an optimal rate of nitrogen fertilization (i.e., 300 kg ha-1 yr-1), more than 60% of the study area showed an increase in SOC, and the average SOC density across NCP was relatively steady during the study period. If the rates of manure application and stubble retention doubled (i.e., manure application rate of 4000 kg ha-1 yr-1 and stubble retention rate of 100%), soils across more than 90% of the study area would act as a net C sink, and the average SOC density kept increasing from 40 Mg ha-1 during 2010s to the current worldwide average of ∼ 55 Mg ha-1 during 2060s. The results can help target agricultural management practices for effectively mitigating climate change through soil C sequestration.

Impacts of Agricultural Management and Climate Change on Future Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics in North China Plain

PubMed Central

Wang, Guocheng; Li, Tingting; Zhang, Wen; Yu, Yongqiang

2014-01-01

Dynamics of cropland soil organic carbon (SOC) in response to different management practices and environmental conditions across North China Plain (NCP) were studied using a modeling approach. We identified the key variables driving SOC changes at a high spatial resolution (10 km×10 km) and long time scale (90 years). The model used future climatic data from the FGOALS model based on four future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration scenarios. Agricultural practices included different rates of nitrogen (N) fertilization, manure application, and stubble retention. We found that SOC change was significantly influenced by the management practices of stubble retention (linearly positive), manure application (linearly positive) and nitrogen fertilization (nonlinearly positive) – and the edaphic variable of initial SOC content (linearly negative). Temperature had weakly positive effects, while precipitation had negligible impacts on SOC dynamics under current irrigation management. The effects of increased N fertilization on SOC changes were most significant between the rates of 0 and 300 kg ha−1 yr−1. With a moderate rate of manure application (i.e., 2000 kg ha−1 yr−1), stubble retention (i.e., 50%), and an optimal rate of nitrogen fertilization (i.e., 300 kg ha−1 yr−1), more than 60% of the study area showed an increase in SOC, and the average SOC density across NCP was relatively steady during the study period. If the rates of manure application and stubble retention doubled (i.e., manure application rate of 4000 kg ha−1 yr−1 and stubble retention rate of 100%), soils across more than 90% of the study area would act as a net C sink, and the average SOC density kept increasing from 40 Mg ha−1 during 2010s to the current worldwide average of ∼55 Mg ha−1 during 2060s. The results can help target agricultural management practices for effectively mitigating climate change through soil C sequestration. PMID:24722689

Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

2014-12-01

The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations. Biogeosciences Discuss 2014, 11:7151-7188. Bond-Lamberty, B et al: Coupling earth system and integrated assessment models: The problem of steady state. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss 2014, 7: 1499-1524, doi:10.5194/gmdd-7-1499-2014.

Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K.

2010-01-01

The livestock sector globally is highly dynamic. In developing countries, it is evolving in response to rapidly increasing demand for livestock products. In developed countries, demand for livestock products is stagnating, while many production systems are increasing their efficiency and environmental sustainability. Historical changes in the demand for livestock products have been largely driven by human population growth, income growth and urbanization and the production response in different livestock systems has been associated with science and technology as well as increases in animal numbers. In the future, production will increasingly be affected by competition for natural resources, particularly land and water, competition between food and feed and by the need to operate in a carbon-constrained economy. Developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health will continue to contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains. Livestock production is likely to be increasingly affected by carbon constraints and environmental and animal welfare legislation. Demand for livestock products in the future could be heavily moderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values. There is considerable uncertainty as to how these factors will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades. PMID:20713389

Soil fauna: key to new carbon models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filser, Juliane; Faber, Jack H.; Tiunov, Alexei V.; Brussaard, Lijbert; Frouz, Jan; De Deyn, Gerlinde; Uvarov, Alexei V.; Berg, Matty P.; Lavelle, Patrick; Loreau, Michel; Wall, Diana H.; Querner, Pascal; Eijsackers, Herman; José Jiménez, Juan

2016-11-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) is key to maintaining soil fertility, mitigating climate change, combatting land degradation, and conserving above- and below-ground biodiversity and associated soil processes and ecosystem services. In order to derive management options for maintaining these essential services provided by soils, policy makers depend on robust, predictive models identifying key drivers of SOM dynamics. Existing SOM models and suggested guidelines for future SOM modelling are defined mostly in terms of plant residue quality and input and microbial decomposition, overlooking the significant regulation provided by soil fauna. The fauna controls almost any aspect of organic matter turnover, foremost by regulating the activity and functional composition of soil microorganisms and their physical-chemical connectivity with soil organic matter. We demonstrate a very strong impact of soil animals on carbon turnover, increasing or decreasing it by several dozen percent, sometimes even turning C sinks into C sources or vice versa. This is demonstrated not only for earthworms and other larger invertebrates but also for smaller fauna such as Collembola. We suggest that inclusion of soil animal activities (plant residue consumption and bioturbation altering the formation, depth, hydraulic properties and physical heterogeneity of soils) can fundamentally affect the predictive outcome of SOM models. Understanding direct and indirect impacts of soil fauna on nutrient availability, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas emissions and plant growth is key to the understanding of SOM dynamics in the context of global carbon cycling models. We argue that explicit consideration of soil fauna is essential to make realistic modelling predictions on SOM dynamics and to detect expected non-linear responses of SOM dynamics to global change. We present a decision framework, to be further developed through the activities of KEYSOM, a European COST Action, for when mechanistic SOM models include soil fauna. The research activities of KEYSOM, such as field experiments and literature reviews, together with dialogue between empiricists and modellers, will inform how this is to be done.

Nitrogen Cycling throughout Secondary Succession following Agricultural Disturbance in North-Central Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parisien, A.; Epstein, H. E.

2017-12-01

While much is known about the carbon cycle during succession that follows agricultural disturbance, less understood are the dynamics of the nitrogen cycle throughout secondary succession, and how plant-available nitrogen may or may not limit vegetation transitions and net primary productivity over time. Two chronosequences at the Blandy Experimental Farm in Boyce, north-central Virginia were examined to elucidate the complexities of the nitrogen cycle over a temporal successional gradient. Each chronosequence consists of one early, one mid, and one late secondary successional field ( 15 years, 30 years, and 100 years post agricultural abandonment, respectively). Five 10x10 m plots were established in each of the 6 fields for a total of 30 plots. Total soil nitrogen (and carbon) data were collected from soils to 30 cm depth at 10-cm intervals, and net nitrogen mineralization and nitrification were estimated using an in situ soil core with anion-cation exchange resin bag technique. Previous studies of carbon cycling at this location have indicated relatively constant soil CO2 efflux of approximately 1100 g C/m2, as well as increasing net primary production and therefore net ecosystem production, with time since abandonment. In addition, soil C and N, and the soil C:N ratio have been shown to increase from the early to late successional plots. Our current study marks the first comprehensive examination of soil nitrogen dynamics including mineralization and nitrification over a successional gradient at Blandy Farm. A thorough understanding of nitrogen dynamics during secondary succession is especially important in the southeastern United States, where a large portion of previously cultivated land has been abandoned over the past century, due to advances in farming efficiency and the move westward to more fertile soils. Much of the southeastern U.S. is now undergoing secondary succession, and quality data on the dynamics of nitrogen cycling during this procession can help guide future land management decisions and carbon cycling predictions.

Widespread Dieback of Forests in North America under Rapid Global Warming: Response to the VINCERA Future Climate Scenarios Simulated by the MC1 DGVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenihan, J.; Neilson, R.; Bachelet, D.; Drapek, R.

2005-12-01

The VINCERA project is an intercomparison among three dynamic general vegetation models (DGVMs) simulating the response of North American ecosystems to six new future climate scenarios. The scenarios were produced by three general circulation models, each using two different future trace gas emissions scenarios. All of the scenarios are near the warmer end of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's projected future temperature range. Here we present results from the MC1 DGVM. All major forested ecosystems in North America exhibit carbon sequestration until the late 20th or early 21st century, followed by a drought induced decline and loss of carbon to levels below those at 1900 in the absence of fire suppression. By the end of the 21st century, the entire continent will have lost from 10 to 30 Pg of carbon, depending on the scenario. However, fire suppression can significantly mitigate carbon losses and ecosystem declines, producing a net change in carbon from a loss of about 5 Pg to a gain of about 8 Pg under the different scenarios. Most of the suppression benefits are obtained by forests in the western U.S. Suppression also mitigates carbon losses and conversions to savanna or grassland in the eastern U.S., but forest decline still occurs in the east under all scenarios. Dieback is triggered by two mechanisms. Reduced regional precipitation, variable among the scenarios, is one. The second more pervasive mechanism is the influence of rising temperatures on evapotranspiration. Even with the benefits of enhanced water use efficiency from elevated CO2 and slight increases in precipitation, dramatic increases in temperature can produce widespread forest dieback, and increases in fire severity. The eastern United States appear to be particularly vulnerable, as does the central Canadian boreal forest because of the relative flatness of climate gradients near ecotones. Under some scenarios, dieback is also driven by both increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation, most notably the southeastern and northwestern United States. Following a period of gradual carbon sequestration, the enhanced evapotranspiration appears to overtake the 'greening' processes producing a rapid dieback. The point of turnaround from greenup to dieback occurs about now for the temperate forests and about a decade from now in the boreal forests, initiating an extended period of rapid losses of ecosystem carbon. These results underscore the critical importance of addressing uncertainties with respect to ecosystem water balance and the direct effects of elevated CO2 concentrations.

OCO-2 advances photosynthesis observation from space via solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence

DOE PAGES

Sun, Ying; Frankenberg, C.; Wood, Jeff D.; ...

2017-10-12

Quantifying gross primary production (GPP) remains a major challenge in global carbon cycle research. Spaceborne monitoring of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), an integrative photosynthetic signal of molecular origin, can assist in terrestrial GPP monitoring. However, the extent to which SIF tracks spatiotemporal variations in GPP remains unresolved. Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2)’s SIF data acquisition and fine spatial resolution permit direct validation against ground and airborne observations. Empirical orthogonal function analysis shows consistent spatiotemporal correspondence between OCO-2 SIF and GPP globally. A linear SIF-GPP relationship is also obtained at eddy-flux sites covering diverse biomes, setting the stage for future investigations ofmore » the robustness of such a relationship across more biomes. In conclusion, our findings support the central importance of high-quality satellite SIF for studying terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics.« less

Quantitative in-situ scanning electron microscope pull-out experiments and molecular dynamics simulations of carbon nanotubes embedded in palladium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartmann, S., E-mail: steffen.hartmann@etit.tu-chemnitz.de; Blaudeck, T.; Hermann, S.

2014-04-14

In this paper, we present our results of experimental and numerical pull-out tests on carbon nanotubes (CNTs) embedded in palladium. We prepared simple specimens by employing standard silicon wafers, physical vapor deposition of palladium and deposition of CNTs with a simple drop coating technique. An AFM cantilever with known stiffness connected to a nanomanipulation system was utilized inside a scanning electron microscope (SEM) as a force sensor to determine forces acting on a CNT during the pull-out process. SEM-images of the cantilever attached to a CNT have been evaluated for subsequent displacement steps with greyscale correlation to determine the cantilevermore » deflection. We compare the experimentally obtained pull-out forces with values of numerical investigations by means of molecular dynamics and give interpretations for deviations according to material impurities or defects and their influence on the pull-out data. We find a very good agreement of force data from simulation and experiment, which is 17 nN and in the range of 10–61 nN, respectively. Our findings contribute to the ongoing research of the mechanical characterization of CNT-metal interfaces. This is of significant interest for the design of future mechanical sensors utilizing the intrinsic piezoresistive effect of CNTs or other future devices incorporating CNT-metal interfaces.« less

The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics: from tipping points to planetary boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderies, J. M.; Carpenter, S. R.; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan

2013-12-01

We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a ‘safe operating space’ for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries.

Bird specimens track 135 years of atmospheric black carbon and environmental policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DuBay, Shane G.; Fuldner, Carl C.

2017-10-01

Atmospheric black carbon has long been recognized as a public health and environmental concern. More recently, black carbon has been identified as a major, ongoing contributor to anthropogenic climate change, thus making historical emission inventories of black carbon an essential tool for assessing past climate sensitivity and modeling future climate scenarios. Current estimates of black carbon emissions for the early industrial era have high uncertainty, however, because direct environmental sampling is sparse before the mid-1950s. Using photometric reflectance data of >1,300 bird specimens drawn from natural history collections, we track relative ambient concentrations of atmospheric black carbon between 1880 and 2015 within the US Manufacturing Belt, a region historically reliant on coal and dense with industry. Our data show that black carbon levels within the region peaked during the first decade of the 20th century. Following this peak, black carbon levels were positively correlated with coal consumption through midcentury, after which they decoupled, with black carbon concentrations declining as consumption continued to rise. The precipitous drop in atmospheric black carbon at midcentury reflects policies promoting burning efficiency and fuel transitions rather than regulating emissions alone. Our findings suggest that current emission inventories based on predictive modeling underestimate levels of atmospheric black carbon for the early industrial era, suggesting that the contribution of black carbon to past climate forcing may also be underestimated. These findings build toward a spatially dynamic emission inventory of black carbon based on direct environmental sampling.

Bird specimens track 135 years of atmospheric black carbon and environmental policy

PubMed Central

DuBay, Shane G.; Fuldner, Carl C.

2017-01-01

Atmospheric black carbon has long been recognized as a public health and environmental concern. More recently, black carbon has been identified as a major, ongoing contributor to anthropogenic climate change, thus making historical emission inventories of black carbon an essential tool for assessing past climate sensitivity and modeling future climate scenarios. Current estimates of black carbon emissions for the early industrial era have high uncertainty, however, because direct environmental sampling is sparse before the mid-1950s. Using photometric reflectance data of >1,300 bird specimens drawn from natural history collections, we track relative ambient concentrations of atmospheric black carbon between 1880 and 2015 within the US Manufacturing Belt, a region historically reliant on coal and dense with industry. Our data show that black carbon levels within the region peaked during the first decade of the 20th century. Following this peak, black carbon levels were positively correlated with coal consumption through midcentury, after which they decoupled, with black carbon concentrations declining as consumption continued to rise. The precipitous drop in atmospheric black carbon at midcentury reflects policies promoting burning efficiency and fuel transitions rather than regulating emissions alone. Our findings suggest that current emission inventories based on predictive modeling underestimate levels of atmospheric black carbon for the early industrial era, suggesting that the contribution of black carbon to past climate forcing may also be underestimated. These findings build toward a spatially dynamic emission inventory of black carbon based on direct environmental sampling. PMID:29073051

The future of the North American carbon cycle - projections and associated climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntzinger, D. N.; Chatterjee, A.; Cooley, S. R.; Dunne, J. P.; Hoffman, F. M.; Luo, Y.; Moore, D. J.; Ohrel, S. B.; Poulter, B.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Tzortziou, M.; Walker, A. P.; Mayes, M. A.

2016-12-01

Approximately half of anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is taken up annually by carbon sinks on the land and in the oceans. However, there are key uncertainties in how carbon uptake by terrestrial, ocean, and freshwater systems will respond to, and interact with, climate into the future. Here, we outline the current state of understanding on the future carbon budget of these major reservoirs within North America and the globe. We examine the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks, atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. Progress has been made at identifying vulnerabilities in carbon pools, including high-latitude permafrost, peatlands, freshwater and coastal wetlands, and ecosystems subject to disturbance events, such as insects, fire and drought. However, many of these processes/pools are not well represented in current models, and model intercomparison studies have shown a range in carbon cycle response to factors such as climate and CO2 fertilization. Furthermore, as model complexity increases, understanding the drivers of model spread becomes increasingly more difficult. As a result, uncertainties in future carbon cycle projections are large. It is also uncertain how management decisions and policies will impact future carbon stocks and flows. In order to guide policy, a better understanding of the risk and magnitude of North American carbon cycle changes is needed. This requires that future carbon cycle projections be conditioned on current observations and be reported with sufficient confidence and fully specified uncertainties.

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Eleanor J.; Ekici, Altug; Huang, Ye; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Huntingford, Chris; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Krinner, Gerhard

2017-06-01

The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric - the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years - that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

Development of an Assessment Model for Sustainable Supply Chain Management in Batik Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mubiena, G. F.; Ma’ruf, A.

2018-03-01

This research proposes a dynamic assessment model for sustainable supply chain management in batik industry. The proposed model identifies the dynamic relationship between economic aspect, environment aspect and social aspect. The economic aspect refers to the supply chain operation reference model. The environment aspect uses carbon emissions and liquid waste as the attribute assessment, while the social aspect focus on employee’s welfare. Lean manufacturing concept was implemented as an alternative approach to sustainability. The simulation result shows that the average of sustainability score for 5 years increased from 65,3% to 70%. Future experiments will be conducted on design improvements to reach the company target on sustainability score.

High-rate behaviour of iron ore pellet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gustafsson, Gustaf; Häggblad, Hans-Åke; Jonsén, Pär; Nishida, Masahiro

2015-09-01

Iron ore pellets are sintered, centimetre-sized spheres of ore with high iron content. Together with carbonized coal, iron ore pellets are used in the production of steel. In the transportation from the pelletizing plants to the customers, the iron ore pellets are exposed to different loading situations, resulting in degradation of strength and in some cases fragmentation. For future reliable numerical simulations of the handling and transportation of iron ore pellets, knowledge about their mechanical properties is needed. This paper describes the experimental work to investigate the dynamic mechanical properties of blast furnace iron ore pellets. To study the dynamic fracture of iron ore pellets a number of split Hopkinson pressure bar tests are carried out and analysed.

Implications of plant acclimation for future climate-carbon cycle feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercado, Lina; Kattge, Jens; Cox, Peter; Sitch, Stephen; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lloyd, Jon; Huntingford, Chris

2010-05-01

The response of land ecosystems to climate change and associated feedbacks are a key uncertainty in future climate prediction (Friedlingstein et al. 2006). However global models generally do not account for the acclimation of plant physiological processes to increased temperatures. Here we conduct a first global sensitivity study whereby we modify the Joint UK land Environment Simulator (JULES) to account for temperature acclimation of two main photosynthetic parameters, Vcmax and Jmax (Kattge and Knorr 2007) and plant respiration (Atkin and Tjoelker 2003). The model is then applied over the 21st Century within the IMOGEN framework (Huntingford et al. 2004). Model simulations will provide new and improved projections of biogeochemical cycling, forest resilience, and thus more accurate projections of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and the future evolution of the Earth System. Friedlingstein P, Cox PM, Betts R et al. (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis, results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353. Kattge J and Knorr W (2007): Temperature acclimation in a biochemical model of photosynthesis: a reanalysis of data from 36 species. Plant, Cell and Environment 30, 1176-1190 Atkin O.K and Tjoelker, M. G. (2003): Thermal acclimation and the dynamic response of plant respiration to temperature. Trends in Plant Science 8 (7), 343-351 Huntingford C, et al. (2004) Using a GCM analogue model to investigate the potential for Amazonian forest dieback. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 177-185.

Assessment of the potential of urban organic carbon dynamics to off-set urban anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottschalk, P.; Churkina, G.; Wattenbach, M.; Cubasch, U.

2010-12-01

The impact of urban systems on current and future global carbon emissions has been a focus of several studies. Many mitigation options in terms of increasing energy efficiency are discussed. However, apart from technical mitigation potential urban systems also have a considerable biogenic potential to mitigate carbon through an optimized management of organic carbon pools of vegetation and soil. Berlin city area comprises almost 50% of areas covered with vegetation or largely covered with vegetation. This potentially offers various areas for carbon mitigation actions. To assess the mitigation potentials our first objective is to estimate how large current vegetation and soil carbon stocks of Berlin are. We use publicly available forest and soil inventories to calculate soil organic carbon of non-pervious areas and forest standing biomass carbon. This research highlights data-gaps and assigns uncertainty ranges to estimated carbon resources. The second objective is to assess the carbon mitigation potential of Berlin’s vegetation and soils using a biogeochemical simulation model. BIOME-BGC simulates carbon-, nitrogen- and water-fluxes of ecosystems mechanistically. First, its applicability for Berlin forests is tested at selected sites. A spatial application gives an estimate of current net carbon fluxes. The application of such a model allows determining the sensitivity of key ecosystem processes (e.g. carbon gains through photosynthesis, carbon losses through decomposition) towards external drivers. This information can then be used to optimise forest management in terms of carbon mitigation. Initial results of Berlin’s current carbon stocks and its spatial distribution and preliminary simulations results will be presented.

Modification of land-atmosphere interactions by CO2 effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemordant, Leo; Gentine, Pierre

2017-04-01

Plant stomata couple the energy, water and carbon cycles. Increased CO2 modifies the seasonality of the water cycle through stomatal regulation and increased leaf area. As a result, the water saved during the growing season through higher water use efficiency mitigates summer dryness and the impact of potential heat waves. Land-atmosphere interactions and CO2 fertilization together synergistically contribute to increased summer transpiration. This, in turn, alters the surface energy budget and decreases sensible heat flux, mitigating air temperature rise. Accurate representation of the response to higher CO2 levels, and of the coupling between the carbon and water cycles are therefore critical to forecasting seasonal climate, water cycle dynamics and to enhance the accuracy of extreme event prediction under future climate.

Evolution of Carbon Clusters in the Detonation Products of the Triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB)-Based Explosive PBX 9502

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watkins, Erik B.; Velizhanin, Kirill A.; Dattelbaum, Dana M.

The detonation of carbon-rich high explosives yields solid carbon as a major constituent of the product mixture and, depending on the thermodynamic conditions behind the shock front, a variety of carbon allotropes and morphologies may form and evolve. We applied time-resolved small angle x-ray scattering (TR-SAXS) to investigate the dynamics of carbon clustering during detonation of PBX 9502, an explosive composed of triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB) and 5 wt% fluoropolymer binder. Solid carbon formation was probed from 0.1 to 2.0 μs behind the detonation front and revealed rapid carbon cluster growth which reached a maximum after ~200 ns. The late-time carbon clustersmore » had a radius of gyration of 3.3 nm which is consistent with 8.4 nm diameter spherical particles and matched particle sizes of recovered products. Simulations using a clustering kinetics model were found to be in good agreement with the experimental measurements of cluster growth when invoking a freeze-out temperature, and temporal shift associated with the initial precipitation of solid carbon. Product densities from reactive flow models were compared to the electron density contrast obtained from TR-SAXS and used to approximate the carbon cluster composition as a mixture of 20% highly ordered (diamond-like) and 80% disordered carbon forms, which will inform future product equation of state models for solid carbon in PBX 9502 detonation product mixtures.« less

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes.

PubMed

Bachelet, Dominique; Ferschweiler, Ken; Sheehan, Timothy J; Sleeter, Benjamin M; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-12-01

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie-forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122-126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term impacts of boreal wildfire on carbon cycling dynamics in Interior Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaglioti, B.; Mann, D. H.; Finney, B.; Pohlman, J.; Jones, B. M.; Arp, C. D.; Wooller, M. J.

2013-12-01

Wildland fire is a major disturbance in the boreal forest, and warming climate will likely increase the frequency and severity of burning. Fires trigger thermokarst, the thawing of permafrost (perennially frozen ground), which can release large amounts of ancient carbon to the atmosphere. But how vulnerable is the organic carbon stored in permafrost in the boreal forest to a changing fire regime? Paleolimnological records can tell us how the landscape actually responded during prehistoric fires and provide a valuable perspective on future events. Here we present a whole-watershed summary of terrestrial and aquatic carbon dynamics during multiple fire and thermokarst disturbances over the last millennia. We use laminated lake sediments laid down in a permanently stratified, thermokarst lake basin in Interior Alaska to decipher the impacts of wildfires on permafrost carbon release from the surrounding watershed. Sediment chronologies based on layer counts, lead and cesium dating, and radiocarbon dating of plant macrofossils, provide a near-annual resolution of environmental changes over the last 1100 years. Charcoal accumulation rates quantified from sediment thin-sections and fire-scarred spruce trees constrain the timing of fires. The variability of permafrost carbon release before and after fires was investigated by analyzing several geochemical indices including radiocarbon dating on the sediment organic matter directly above and below charcoal layers in the sediment stack. The difference between a sediment layers 'true' age of deposition based on layer counts and the apparent radiocarbon age on the same bulk sediment material (radiocarbon age offset) is then used as a proxy for permafrost carbon release. The relative age of permafrost-derived organic carbon entering the lake before and after past fires was determined by radiocarbon age offsets before and after wildfire events. Fires are not the only triggers of permafrost-C release. Thermokarst caused by shoreline erosion triggered by some combination of fires, beaver dams that raise lake levels, and chance events complicate the larger watershed signal of C release.

The Role of Driving Factors in Historical and Projected Carbon Dynamics in Wetland Ecosystems of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Z.; Helene, G.; He, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A. D.; Bennett, A.; Breen, A. L.; Clein, J.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Johnson, K. D.; Kurkowski, T. A.; Pastick, N. J.; Rupp, S. T.; Wylie, B. K.; Zhu, Z.

2017-12-01

Wetlands are important terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska. It is important to understand and assess their role in the regional carbon dynamics in response to historical and projected environmental conditions. A coupled modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used to assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and fire regime on the historical and future carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. Simulations were conducted for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). These simulations estimate that the total carbon (C) storage in wetland ecosystems of Alaska is 5556 Tg C in 2009, with 89% of the C stored in soils. An estimated 175 Tg C was lost during the historical period, which is attributed to greater C lost from the Northwest Boreal LCC than C gained from the other three LCCs. The simulations for the projection period were conducted for six different scenarios driven by climate forcings from two different climate models for each of three CO2 emission scenarios. The mean total carbon storage increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 Tg C/yr to 4.42 Tg C/yr. Across the four LCCs, the largest relative C storage increase occurred in the Arctic and North Pacific LCCs. These increases were primarily driven by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than increases in heterotrophic respiration and fire emissions. Our analysis further indicates that NPP increase was primarily driven by CO2 fertilization ( 5% per 100 ppmv increase) as well as by increases in air temperature ( 1% per ° increase). Increases air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in wetlands biogenic CH4 emissions among the simulations ( 15% per ° increase). The combined effects of ecosystem CO2 sequestration and increased CH4 emissions result in a weaker global warming potential (GWP) for wetlands ecosystems in Alaska. Overall, this study estimates that wetland ecosystems of Alaska will transition into a C sink with less contribution to the global warming enhancement.

Warming trumps CO2: future climate conditions suppress carbon fluxes in two dominant boreal tree species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Way, D.; Dusenge, M. E.; Madhavji, S.

2017-12-01

Increases in CO2 are expected to raise air temperatures in northern latitudes by up to 8 °C by the end of the century. Boreal forests in these regions play a large role in the global carbon cycle, and the responses of boreal tree species to climate drivers will thus have considerable impacts on the trajectory of future CO2 increases. We grew two dominant North American boreal tree species at a range of future climate conditions to assess how carbon fluxes were altered by high CO2 and warming. Black spruce (Picea mariana) and tamarack (Larix laricina) were grown from seed under either ambient (400 ppm) or elevated CO2 concentrations (750 ppm) and either ambient temperatures, moderate warming (ambient +4 °C), or extreme warming (ambient +8 °C) for six months. We measured temperature responses of net photosynthesis, maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax) and electron transport (Jmax) and dark respiration to determine acclimation to the climate treatments. Overall, growth temperature had a strong effect on carbon fluxes, while there were no significant effects of growth CO2. In both species, the photosynthetic thermal optimum increased and maximum photosynthetic rates were reduced in warm-grown seedlings, but the strength of these changes varied between species. Vcmax and Jmax were also reduced in warm-grown seedlings, and this correlated with reductions in leaf N concentrations. Warming increased the activation energy for Vcmax and the thermal optimum for Jmax in both species. Respiration acclimated to elevated growth temperatures, but there were no treatment effects on the Q10 of respiration (the increase in respiration for a 10 °C increase in leaf temperature). Our results show that climate warming is likely to reduce carbon fluxes in these boreal conifers, and that photosynthetic parameters used to model photosynthesis in dynamic global vegetation models acclimate to increased temperatures, but show little response to elevated CO2.

The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska.

PubMed

Genet, Hélène; He, Yujie; Lyu, Zhou; McGuire, A David; Zhuang, Qianlai; Clein, Joy; D'Amore, David; Bennett, Alec; Breen, Amy; Biles, Frances; Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Johnson, Kristofer; Kurkowski, Tom; Kushch Schroder, Svetlana; Pastick, Neal; Rupp, T Scott; Wylie, Bruce; Zhang, Yujin; Zhou, Xiaoping; Zhu, Zhiliang

2018-01-01

It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km 2 ), are influencing and will influence state-wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), climate, logging and fire regimes on the historical and future C balance of upland ecosystems for the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. At the end of the historical period (1950-2009) of our analysis, we estimate that upland ecosystems of Alaska store ~50 Pg C (with ~90% of the C in soils), and gained 3.26 Tg C/yr. Three of the LCCs had gains in total ecosystem C storage, while the Northwest Boreal LCC lost C (-6.01 Tg C/yr) because of increases in fire activity. Carbon exports from logging affected only the North Pacific LCC and represented less than 1% of the state's net primary production (NPP). The analysis for the future time period (2010-2099) consisted of six simulations driven by climate outputs from two climate models for three emission scenarios. Across the climate scenarios, total ecosystem C storage increased between 19.5 and 66.3 Tg C/yr, which represents 3.4% to 11.7% increase in Alaska upland's storage. We conducted additional simulations to attribute these responses to environmental changes. This analysis showed that atmospheric CO 2 fertilization was the main driver of ecosystem C balance. By comparing future simulations with constant and with increasing atmospheric CO 2 , we estimated that the sensitivity of NPP was 4.8% per 100 ppmv, but NPP becomes less sensitive to CO 2 increase throughout the 21st century. Overall, our analyses suggest that the decreasing CO 2 sensitivity of NPP and the increasing sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration to air temperature, in addition to the increase in C loss from wildfires weakens the C sink from upland ecosystems of Alaska and will ultimately lead to a source of CO 2 to the atmosphere beyond 2100. Therefore, we conclude that the increasing regional C sink we estimate for the 21st century will most likely be transitional. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Genet, Hélène; He, Yujie; Lyu, Zhou; McGuire, A. David; Zhuang, Qianlai; Clein, Joy S.; D'Amore, David; Bennett, Alec; Breen, Amy; Biles, Frances; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Johnson, Kristofer; Kurkowski, Tom; Schroder, Svetlana (Kushch); Pastick, Neal J.; Rupp, T. Scott; Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, Yujin; Zhou, Xiaoping; Zhu, Zhiliang

2018-01-01

It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km2), are influencing and will influence state‐wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), climate, logging and fire regimes on the historical and future C balance of upland ecosystems for the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. At the end of the historical period (1950–2009) of our analysis, we estimate that upland ecosystems of Alaska store ~50 Pg C (with ~90% of the C in soils), and gained 3.26 Tg C/yr. Three of the LCCs had gains in total ecosystem C storage, while the Northwest Boreal LCC lost C (−6.01 Tg C/yr) because of increases in fire activity. Carbon exports from logging affected only the North Pacific LCC and represented less than 1% of the state's net primary production (NPP). The analysis for the future time period (2010–2099) consisted of six simulations driven by climate outputs from two climate models for three emission scenarios. Across the climate scenarios, total ecosystem C storage increased between 19.5 and 66.3 Tg C/yr, which represents 3.4% to 11.7% increase in Alaska upland's storage. We conducted additional simulations to attribute these responses to environmental changes. This analysis showed that atmospheric CO2 fertilization was the main driver of ecosystem C balance. By comparing future simulations with constant and with increasing atmospheric CO2, we estimated that the sensitivity of NPP was 4.8% per 100 ppmv, but NPP becomes less sensitive to CO2increase throughout the 21st century. Overall, our analyses suggest that the decreasing CO2 sensitivity of NPP and the increasing sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration to air temperature, in addition to the increase in C loss from wildfires weakens the C sink from upland ecosystems of Alaska and will ultimately lead to a source of CO2 to the atmosphere beyond 2100. Therefore, we conclude that the increasing regional C sink we estimate for the 21st century will most likely be transitional.

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2018-02-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

Atmospheric deposition, CO2, and change in the land carbon sink.

PubMed

Fernández-Martínez, M; Vicca, S; Janssens, I A; Ciais, P; Obersteiner, M; Bartrons, M; Sardans, J; Verger, A; Canadell, J G; Chevallier, F; Wang, X; Bernhofer, C; Curtis, P S; Gianelle, D; Grünwald, T; Heinesch, B; Ibrom, A; Knohl, A; Laurila, T; Law, B E; Limousin, J M; Longdoz, B; Loustau, D; Mammarella, I; Matteucci, G; Monson, R K; Montagnani, L; Moors, E J; Munger, J W; Papale, D; Piao, S L; Peñuelas, J

2017-08-29

Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) have continued to increase whereas atmospheric deposition of sulphur and nitrogen has declined in Europe and the USA during recent decades. Using time series of flux observations from 23 forests distributed throughout Europe and the USA, and generalised mixed models, we found that forest-level net ecosystem production and gross primary production have increased by 1% annually from 1995 to 2011. Statistical models indicated that increasing atmospheric CO 2 was the most important factor driving the increasing strength of carbon sinks in these forests. We also found that the reduction of sulphur deposition in Europe and the USA lead to higher recovery in ecosystem respiration than in gross primary production, thus limiting the increase of carbon sequestration. By contrast, trends in climate and nitrogen deposition did not significantly contribute to changing carbon fluxes during the studied period. Our findings support the hypothesis of a general CO 2 -fertilization effect on vegetation growth and suggest that, so far unknown, sulphur deposition plays a significant role in the carbon balance of forests in industrialized regions. Our results show the need to include the effects of changing atmospheric composition, beyond CO 2 , to assess future dynamics of carbon-climate feedbacks not currently considered in earth system/climate modelling.

Soil Organic Carbon Storage in Five Different Arctic Permafrost Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, M.; Grosse, G.; Jones, B. M.; Maximov, G.; Strauss, J.

2016-12-01

Arctic river deltas and ice-rich permafrost regions are highly dynamic environments which will be strongly affected by future climate change. Rapid thaw of permafrost (thermokarst and thermo-erosion) may cause significant mobilization of organic carbon, which is assumed to be stored in large amounts in Arctic river deltas and ice-rich permafrost. This study presents and compares new data on organic carbon storage in thermokarst landforms and Arctic river delta deposits for the first two meters of soils for five different study areas in Alaska and Siberia. The sites include the Ikpikpuk river delta (North Alaska), Fish Creek river delta (North Alaska), Teshekpuk Lake Special Area (North Alaska), Sobo-Sise Island (Lena river delta, Northeast Siberia), and Bykovsky Peninsula (Northeast Siberia). Samples were taken with a SIPRE auger along transects covering the main geomorphological landscape units in the study regions. Our results show a high variability in soil organic carbon storage among the different study sites. The studied profiles in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area - dominated by drained thermokarst lake basins - contained significantly more carbon than the other areas. The Teshekpuk Lake Special Area contains 44 ± 9 kg C m-2 (0-100 cm, mean value of profiles ± Std dev) compared to 20 ± 7 kg C m-2 kg for Sobo-Sise Island - a Yedoma dominated island intersected by thaw lake basins and 24 ± 6 kg C m-2 for the deltaic dominated areas (Fish Creek and Ikpikpuk). However, especially for the Ikpikpuk river delta, a significant amount of carbon (25 ± 9 kg C m-2) is stored in the second meter of soil (100-200cm). This study shows the importance of including deltaic and thermokarst-affected landscapes as considerable carbon pools, but indicates that these areas are heterogeneous in terms of organic carbon storage and cannot be generalized. As a next step, the site-level carbon stocks will be upscaled to the landscape level using remote sensing-based land cover classifications to calculate the carbon storage potential for Arctic deltas and larger thermokarst regions, to estimate mobilization potentials from thermokarst and thermo-erosion, and to provide input data for future permafrost carbon feedback models.

Integrating remotely sensed land cover observations and a biogeochemical model for estimating forest ecosystem carbon dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, J.; Liu, S.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Tieszen, L.L.

2008-01-01

Land cover change is one of the key driving forces for ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics. We present an approach for using sequential remotely sensed land cover observations and a biogeochemical model to estimate contemporary and future ecosystem carbon trends. We applied the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modelling System (GEMS) for the Laurentian Plains and Hills ecoregion in the northeastern United States for the period of 1975-2025. The land cover changes, especially forest stand-replacing events, were detected on 30 randomly located 10-km by 10-km sample blocks, and were assimilated by GEMS for biogeochemical simulations. In GEMS, each unique combination of major controlling variables (including land cover change history) forms a geo-referenced simulation unit. For a forest simulation unit, a Monte Carlo process is used to determine forest type, forest age, forest biomass, and soil C, based on the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and the U.S. General Soil Map (STATSGO) data. Ensemble simulations are performed for each simulation unit to incorporate input data uncertainty. Results show that on average forests of the Laurentian Plains and Hills ecoregion have been sequestrating 4.2 Tg C (1 teragram = 1012 gram) per year, including 1.9 Tg C removed from the ecosystem as the consequences of land cover change. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

[Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.

PubMed

Huo, Xiao Ying; Peng, Shou Zhang; Ren, Jing Yu; Cao, Yang; Chen, Yun Ming

2018-02-01

This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period, annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0.12, 0.23 and 0.54 ℃·10 a -1 under RCP 2.6 , RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP 4.5 , under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a -1 . Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period (1961-1990), it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period, and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century (2071-2100) under RCP 8.5 scenario. The NPP under the RCP 8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios. During 2015-2100, the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m -2 ·10 a -1 under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively, implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.

Carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges, Alberto V.; Abril, Gwenaël.

2010-05-01

We carried out a literature overview to synthesize current knowledge on CO2 and CH4 dynamics and fluxes with the atmosphere in estuarine environments. Estuarine systems are highly dynamic in terms of carbon cycling and emit CO2 to the atmosphere at rates that are quantitatively significant for the global C cycle. This emission of CO2 to the atmosphere is strongly supported by the net heterotrophic nature of these ecosystems. The robustness of the evaluation of the emission of CO2 from estuarine ecosystems has increased in last years due to increasing data availability and improvements in the surface area estimates by types. At present, the lack of sufficient data is the major limitation in the quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of CO2 fluxes in estuarine environments. Regarding future observations, there is also a need for sustained measurements to unravel inter-annual variability and long-term trends of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Indeed, due to the strong linkage with river catchements, inter-annual variability of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments is expected to be strong. Data used in the present synthesis were either obtained by the authors, data mined from publications or communicated by colleagues. There is a need for publicly available and quality checked data-bases for CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Not only cross-system meta-analysis of data (CO2, CH4, O2, …) can be enlightening as explored in the present work, but also considering the uncertainties in the evaluation of the gas transfer velocity, there could be a need for future re-evaluations of air-water CO2 and CH4 fluxes, requiring access to the raw pCO2 and [CH4] data.

Evolution of Carbon Clusters in the Detonation Products of the Triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB)-Based Explosive PBX 9502

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watkins, Erik B.; Velizhanin, Kirill A.; Dattelbaum, Dana M.

Here, the detonation of carbon-rich high explosives yields solid carbon as a major constituent of the product mixture and, depending on the thermodynamic conditions behind the shock front, a variety of carbon allotropes and morphologies may form and evolve. We applied time-resolved small angle x-ray scattering (TR-SAXS) to investigate the dynamics of carbon clustering during detonation of PBX 9502, an explosive composed of triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB) and 5 wt% fluoropolymer binder. Solid carbon formation was probed from 0.1 to 2.0 μs behind the detonation front and revealed rapid carbon cluster growth which reached a maximum after ~200 ns. The late-time carbonmore » clusters had a radius of gyration of 3.3 nm which is consistent with 8.4 nm diameter spherical particles and matched particle sizes of recovered products. Simulations using a clustering kinetics model were found to be in good agreement with the experimental measurements of cluster growth when invoking a freeze-out temperature, and temporal shift associated with the initial precipitation of solid carbon. Product densities from reactive flow models were compared to the electron density contrast obtained from TR-SAXS and used to approximate the carbon cluster composition as a mixture of 20% highly ordered (diamond-like) and 80% disordered carbon forms, which will inform future product equation of state models for solid carbon in PBX 9502 detonation product mixtures.« less

Evolution of Carbon Clusters in the Detonation Products of the Triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB)-Based Explosive PBX 9502

DOE PAGES

Watkins, Erik B.; Velizhanin, Kirill A.; Dattelbaum, Dana M.; ...

2017-08-15

Here, the detonation of carbon-rich high explosives yields solid carbon as a major constituent of the product mixture and, depending on the thermodynamic conditions behind the shock front, a variety of carbon allotropes and morphologies may form and evolve. We applied time-resolved small angle x-ray scattering (TR-SAXS) to investigate the dynamics of carbon clustering during detonation of PBX 9502, an explosive composed of triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB) and 5 wt% fluoropolymer binder. Solid carbon formation was probed from 0.1 to 2.0 μs behind the detonation front and revealed rapid carbon cluster growth which reached a maximum after ~200 ns. The late-time carbonmore » clusters had a radius of gyration of 3.3 nm which is consistent with 8.4 nm diameter spherical particles and matched particle sizes of recovered products. Simulations using a clustering kinetics model were found to be in good agreement with the experimental measurements of cluster growth when invoking a freeze-out temperature, and temporal shift associated with the initial precipitation of solid carbon. Product densities from reactive flow models were compared to the electron density contrast obtained from TR-SAXS and used to approximate the carbon cluster composition as a mixture of 20% highly ordered (diamond-like) and 80% disordered carbon forms, which will inform future product equation of state models for solid carbon in PBX 9502 detonation product mixtures.« less

Effects of Climatic Conditions and Management Practices on Agricultural Carbon and Water Budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, Jinshu; Waldo, Sarah; Pressley, Shelley N.; Russell, Eric S.; O'Keeffe, Patrick T.; Pan, William L.; Huggins, David R.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Brooks, Erin S.; Lamb, Brian K.

2017-12-01

Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long-term effects of these environmental drivers and farming activities on carbon and water dynamics. Twenty site-years of carbon and water fluxes covering a large precipitation gradient and a variety of crop species and management practices were measured in the inland Pacific Northwest using the eddy covariance method. The rain-fed fields were net carbon sinks, while the irrigated site was close to carbon neutral during the winter wheat crop years. Sites growing spring crops were either carbon sinks, sources, or neutral, varying with crops, rainfall zones, and tillage practices. Fluxes were more sensitive to variability in precipitation than temperature: annual carbon and water fluxes increased with the increasing precipitation while only respiration increased with temperature in the high-rainfall area. Compared to a nearby rain-fed site, irrigation improved winter wheat production but resulted in large losses of carbon and water to the atmosphere. Compared to conventional tillage, no-till had significantly lower respiration but resulted in slightly lower yields and water use efficiency over 4 years. Under future climate change, it is expected that more carbon fixation by crops and evapotranspiration would occur in a warmer and wetter environment.

Buffering of Ocean Export Production by Flexible Elemental Stoichiometry of Particulate Organic Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanioka, Tatsuro; Matsumoto, Katsumi

2017-10-01

One of the most important factors that determine the ocean-atmosphere carbon partitioning is the sinking of particulate organic matter (POM) from the surface ocean to the deep ocean. The amount of carbon (C) removed from the surface ocean by this POM export production depends critically on the elemental ratio in POM of C to nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), two essential elements that limit productivity. Recent observations indicate that P:N:C in marine POM varies both spatially and temporally due to chemical, physical, and ecological dynamics. In a new approach to predicting a flexible P:C ratio, we developed a power law model with a stoichiometry sensitivity factor, which is able to relate P:C of POM to ambient phosphate concentration. The new factor is robust, measurable, and biogeochemically meaningful. Using the new stoichiometry sensitivity factor, we present a first-order estimate that P:C plasticity could buffer against a generally expected future reduction in global carbon export production by up to 5% under a future warming scenario compared to a fixed, Redfield P:C. Further, we demonstrate that our new stoichiometry model can be implemented successfully and easily in a global model to reproduce the large-scale P:N:C variability in the ocean.

Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; Carman, T.B.; McGuire, Anthony David

2013-01-01

The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over regional to global scales typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observations of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest, and perform model simulations for the years 1970 -2100. Over the course of the model simulations, we found changes in ecosystem composition under this new phenology algorithm compared to simulations with the previous phenology algorithm. These changes were the result of the differential timing of leaf-out, as well as the ability for the groupings of species to compete for nitrogen and light availability. Regionally, there were differences in the trends of the carbon pools and fluxes between the new phenology algorithm and the previous phenology algorithm, although these differences depended on the future climate scenario. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape, and that dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within these ecosystems to make more accurate projections of future plant distributions and carbon cycling in Arctic regions.

Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model.

PubMed

Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Carman, Tobey B; McGuire, A David

2014-03-01

The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over regional to global scales typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observations of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest, and perform model simulations for the years 1970-2100. Over the course of the model simulations, we found changes in ecosystem composition under this new phenology algorithm compared with simulations with the previous phenology algorithm. These changes were the result of the differential timing of leaf-out, as well as the ability for the groupings of species to compete for nitrogen and light availability. Regionally, there were differences in the trends of the carbon pools and fluxes between the new phenology algorithm and the previous phenology algorithm, although these differences depended on the future climate scenario. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape, and that dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within these ecosystems to make more accurate projections of future plant distributions and carbon cycling in Arctic regions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Low historical nitrogen deposition effect on carbon sequestration in the boreal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischer, K.; Wârlind, D.; van der Molen, M. K.; Rebel, K. T.; Arneth, A.; Erisman, J. W.; Wassen, M. J.; Smith, B.; Gough, C. M.; Margolis, H. A.; Cescatti, A.; Montagnani, L.; Arain, A.; Dolman, A. J.

2015-12-01

Nitrogen (N) cycle dynamics and N deposition play an important role in determining the terrestrial biosphere's carbon (C) balance. We assess global and biome-specific N deposition effects on C sequestration rates with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Modeled CN interactions are evaluated by comparing predictions of the C and CN version of the model with direct observations of C fluxes from 68 forest FLUXNET sites. N limitation on C uptake reduced overestimation of gross primary productivity for boreal evergreen needleleaf forests from 56% to 18%, presenting the greatest improvement among forest types. Relative N deposition effects on C sequestration (dC/dN) in boreal, temperate, and tropical sites ranged from 17 to 26 kg C kg N-1 when modeled at site scale and were reduced to 12-22 kg C kg N-1 at global scale. We find that 19% of the recent (1990-2007) and 24% of the historical global C sink (1900-2006) was driven by N deposition effects. While boreal forests exhibit highest dC/dN, their N deposition-induced C sink was relatively low and is suspected to stay low in the future as no major changes in N deposition rates are expected in the boreal zone. N deposition induced a greater C sink in temperate and tropical forests, while predicted C fluxes and N-induced C sink response in tropical forests were associated with greatest uncertainties. Future work should be directed at improving the ability of LPJ-GUESS and other process-based ecosystem models to reproduce C cycle dynamics in the tropics, facilitated by more benchmarking data sets. Furthermore, efforts should aim to improve understanding and model representations of N availability (e.g., N fixation and organic N uptake), N limitation, P cycle dynamics, and effects of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes.

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon

PubMed Central

Galford, Gillian L.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Cronin, Timothy W.; Cerri, Carlos E. P.; Mustard, John F.; Cerri, Carlos C.

2010-01-01

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006–2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO2-equivalents (CO2-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24–49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2–0.4 Pg CO2-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso. PMID:20651250

Three-Dimensional Water and Carbon Cycle Modeling at High Spatial-Temporal Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, C.; Zhuang, Q.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems in cryosphere are very sensitive to the global climate change due to the presence of snow covers, mountain glaciers and permafrost, especially when the increase in near surface air temperature is almost twice as large as the global average. However, few studies have investigated the water and carbon cycle dynamics using process-based hydrological and biogeochemistry modeling approach. In this study, we used three-dimensional modeling approach at high spatial-temporal resolutions to investigate the water and carbon cycle dynamics for the Tanana Flats Basin in interior Alaska with emphases on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. The results have shown that: (1) lateral flow plays an important role in water and carbon cycle, especially in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics. (2) approximately 2.0 × 104 kg C yr-1 DOC is exported to the hydrological networks and it compromises 1% and 0.01% of total annual gross primary production (GPP) and total organic carbon stored in soil, respectively. This study has established an operational and flexible framework to investigate and predict the water and carbon cycle dynamics under the changing climate.

Historical and Possible Future Changes in Permafrost and Active Layer Thickness in Alaska: Implications to Landscape Changes and Permafrost Carbon Pool.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchenko, S. S.; Helene, G.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; McGuire, D.; Rupp, S. T.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Walsh, J. E.

2017-12-01

The Soil Temperature and Active Layer Thickness (ALT) Gridded Data was developed to quantify the nature and rate of permafrost degradation and its impact on ecosystems, infrastructure, CO2 and CH4 fluxes and net C storage following permafrost thaw across Alaska. To develop this database, we used the process-based permafrost dynamics model GIPL2 developed in the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF and which is the permafrost module of the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada. The climate forcing data for simulations were developed by the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP, http://www.snap.uaf.edu/). These data are based on the historical CRU3.1 data set for the retrospective analysis period (1901-2009) and the five model averaged data were derived from the five CMIP5/AR5 IPCC Global Circulation Models that performed the best in Alaska and other northern regions: NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3. A composite of all five-model outputs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used in these particular permafrost dynamics simulations. Data sets were downscaled to a 771 m resolution, using the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climatology. Additional input data (snow characteristics, soil thermal properties, soil water content, organic matter accumulation or its loss due to fire, etc.) came from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) and the ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSystem COde) model simulations. We estimated the dynamics of permafrost temperature, active layer thickness, area occupied by permafrost, and volume of seasonally thawed soils within the 4.75 upper meters (original TEM soil column) across the Alaska domain. Simulations of future changes in permafrost indicate that, by the end of the 21st century, late-Holocene permafrost in Alaska will be actively thawing at all locations and that some Late Pleistocene carbon-rich peatlands underlain by permafrost will start to thaw at some locations. The modeling results also indicate how different types of ecosystems affect the thermal state of permafrost and its stability. The release of carbon and the net effect of this thawing depends on the balance between increased productivity and respiration, which depend, in part, on soil moisture dynamics.

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA.

PubMed

Carlson, Chris H; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Safford, Hugh D

2012-06-28

Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration. We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10-35 years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high. Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks.

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration. Results We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10–35 years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high. Conclusions Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks. PMID:22741762

Scaling Atomic Partial Charges of Carbonate Solvents for Lithium Ion Solvation and Diffusion

DOE PAGES

Chaudhari, Mangesh I.; Nair, Jijeesh R.; Pratt, Lawrence R.; ...

2016-10-21

Lithium-ion solvation and diffusion properties in ethylene carbonate (EC) and propylene carbonate (PC) were studied by molecular simulation, experiments, and electronic structure calculations. Studies carried out in water provide a reference for interpretation. Classical molecular dynamics simulation results are compared to ab initio molecular dynamics to assess nonpolarizable force field parameters for solvation structure of the carbonate solvents. Quasi-chemical theory (QCT) was adapted to take advantage of fourfold occupancy of the near-neighbor solvation structure observed in simulations and used to calculate solvation free energies. The computed free energy for transfer of Li + to PC from water, based on electronicmore » structure calculations with cluster-QCT, agrees with the experimental value. The simulation-based direct-QCT results with scaled partial charges agree with the electronic structure-based QCT values. The computed Li +/PF 6 - transference numbers of 0.35/0.65 (EC) and 0.31/0.69 (PC) agree well with NMR experimental values of 0.31/0.69 (EC) and 0.34/0.66 (PC) and similar values obtained here with impedance spectroscopy. These combined results demonstrate that solvent partial charges can be scaled in systems dominated by strong electrostatic interactions to achieve trends in ion solvation and transport properties that are comparable to ab initio and experimental results. Thus, the results support the use of scaled partial charges in simple, nonpolarizable force fields in future studies of these electrolyte solutions.« less

Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, S.; Sun, G.; Cohen, E.; McNulty, S. G.; Caldwell, P.; Duan, K.; Zhang, Y.

2015-12-01

Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dynamically downscaled climate projections of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031-2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979-2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12 digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the conterminous US (CONUS), and evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or 2-digit HUCs. Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of 45 mm yr-1 (6 %), 1.8 °C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr-1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr-1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 g C m-2 yr-1 (9 %) increase in GPP. Response to climate change was highly variable across the 82, 773 watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases in all variables evaluated. Over half of the 82 773 watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest would have an increase in annual Q (>100 mm yr-1 or 20 %). This study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results will be useful for policy-makers and land managers in formulating appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

The decadal state of the terrestrial carbon cycle: Global retrievals of terrestrial carbon allocation, pools, and residence times

PubMed Central

Bloom, A. Anthony; Exbrayat, Jean-François; van der Velde, Ivar R.; Feng, Liang; Williams, Mathew

2016-01-01

The terrestrial carbon cycle is currently the least constrained component of the global carbon budget. Large uncertainties stem from a poor understanding of plant carbon allocation, stocks, residence times, and carbon use efficiency. Imposing observational constraints on the terrestrial carbon cycle and its processes is, therefore, necessary to better understand its current state and predict its future state. We combine a diagnostic ecosystem carbon model with satellite observations of leaf area and biomass (where and when available) and soil carbon data to retrieve the first global estimates, to our knowledge, of carbon cycle state and process variables at a 1° × 1° resolution; retrieved variables are independent from the plant functional type and steady-state paradigms. Our results reveal global emergent relationships in the spatial distribution of key carbon cycle states and processes. Live biomass and dead organic carbon residence times exhibit contrasting spatial features (r = 0.3). Allocation to structural carbon is highest in the wet tropics (85–88%) in contrast to higher latitudes (73–82%), where allocation shifts toward photosynthetic carbon. Carbon use efficiency is lowest (0.42–0.44) in the wet tropics. We find an emergent global correlation between retrievals of leaf mass per leaf area and leaf lifespan (r = 0.64–0.80) that matches independent trait studies. We show that conventional land cover types cannot adequately describe the spatial variability of key carbon states and processes (multiple correlation median = 0.41). This mismatch has strong implications for the prediction of terrestrial carbon dynamics, which are currently based on globally applied parameters linked to land cover or plant functional types. PMID:26787856

Evaluation of carbon fluxes and trends (2000-2008) in the Greater Platte River Basin: a sustainability study on the potential biofuel feedstock development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, Li; Gilmanov, Tagir G.

2012-01-01

This study evaluates the carbon fluxes and trends and examines the environmental sustainability (e.g., carbon budget, source or sink) of the potential biofuel feedstock sites identified in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). A 9-year (2000–2008) time series of net ecosystem production (NEP), a measure of net carbon absorption or emission by ecosystems, was used to assess the historical trends and budgets of carbon flux for grasslands in the GPRB. The spatially averaged annual NEP (ANEP) for grassland areas that are possibly suitable for biofuel expansion (productive grasslands) was 71–169 g C m−2 year−1 during 2000–2008, indicating a carbon sink (more carbon is absorbed than released) in these areas. The spatially averaged ANEP for areas not suitable for biofuel feedstock development (less productive or degraded grasslands) was −47 to 69 g C m−2 year−1 during 2000–2008, showing a weak carbon source or a weak carbon sink (carbon emitted is nearly equal to carbon absorbed). The 9-year pre-harvest cumulative ANEP was 1166 g C m−2 for the suitable areas (a strong carbon sink) and 200 g C m−2 for the non-suitable areas (a weak carbon sink). Results demonstrate and confirm that our method of dynamic modeling of ecosystem performance can successfully identify areas desirable and sustainable for future biofuel feedstock development. This study provides useful information for land managers and decision makers to make optimal land use decisions regarding biofuel feedstock development and sustainability.

CO2 dynamics of tundra ponds in the low-Arctic, Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buell, Mary-Claire

Extensive research has gone into measuring changes to the carbon storage capacity of Arctic terrestrial environments as well as large water bodies in order to determine a carbon budget for many regions across the Arctic. Inland Arctic waters such as small lakes and ponds are often excluded from these carbon budgets, however a handful of studies have demonstrated that they can often be significant sources of carbon to the atmosphere. This study investigated the CO2 cycling of tundra ponds in the Daring Lake area, Northwest Territories, Canada (64°52'N, 111°35'W), to determine the role ponds have in the local carbon cycle. Floating chambers, nondispersive infrared (NDIR) sensors and headspace samples were used to estimate carbon fluxes from four selected local ponds. Multiple environmental, chemical and meteorological parameters were also monitored for the duration of the study, which took place during the snow free season of 2013. Average CO2 emissions for the two-month growing season ranged from approximately -0.0035 g CO2-C m-2 d -1 to 0.12 g CO2-C m-2 d-1. The losses of CO2 from the water bodies in the Daring Lake area were approximately 2-7% of the CO2 uptake over vegetated terrestrial tundra during the same two-month period. Results from this study indicated that the production of CO2 in tundra ponds was positively influenced by both increases in air temperature, and the delivery of carbon from their catchments. The relationship found between temperature and carbon emissions suggests that warming Arctic temperatures have the potential to increase carbon emissions from ponds in the future. The findings in this study did not include ebullition gas emissions nor plant mediated transport, therefore these findings are likely underestimates of the total carbon emissions from water bodies in the Daring Lake area. This study emphasizes the need for more research on inland waters in order to improve our understanding of the total impact these waters may have on the Arctic's atmospheric CO2 concentrations now and in the future.

Pulse-labelling trees to study carbon allocation dynamics: a review of methods, current knowledge and future prospects.

PubMed

Epron, Daniel; Bahn, Michael; Derrien, Delphine; Lattanzi, Fernando Alfredo; Pumpanen, Jukka; Gessler, Arthur; Högberg, Peter; Maillard, Pascale; Dannoura, Masako; Gérant, Dominique; Buchmann, Nina

2012-06-01

Pulse-labelling of trees with stable or radioactive carbon (C) isotopes offers the unique opportunity to trace the fate of labelled CO(2) into the tree and its release to the soil and the atmosphere. Thus, pulse-labelling enables the quantification of C partitioning in forests and the assessment of the role of partitioning in tree growth, resource acquisition and C sequestration. However, this is associated with challenges as regards the choice of a tracer, the methods of tracing labelled C in tree and soil compartments and the quantitative analysis of C dynamics. Based on data from 47 studies, the rate of transfer differs between broadleaved and coniferous species and decreases as temperature and soil water content decrease. Labelled C is rapidly transferred belowground-within a few days or less-and this transfer is slowed down by drought. Half-lives of labelled C in phloem sap (transfer pool) and in mature leaves (source organs) are short, while those of sink organs (growing tissues, seasonal storage) are longer. (13)C measurements in respiratory efflux at high temporal resolution provide the best estimate of the mean residence times of C in respiratory substrate pools, and the best basis for compartmental modelling. Seasonal C dynamics and allocation patterns indicate that sink strength variations are important drivers for C fluxes. We propose a conceptual model for temperate and boreal trees, which considers the use of recently assimilated C versus stored C. We recommend best practices for designing and analysing pulse-labelling experiments, and identify several topics which we consider of prime importance for future research on C allocation in trees: (i) whole-tree C source-sink relations, (ii) C allocation to secondary metabolism, (iii) responses to environmental change, (iv) effects of seasonality versus phenology in and across biomes, and (v) carbon-nitrogen interactions. Substantial progress is expected from emerging technologies, but the largest challenge remains to carry out in situ whole-tree labelling experiments on mature trees to improve our understanding of the environmental and physiological controls on C allocation.

Sensitivity of CO2 storage performance to varying rates and dynamic injectivity in the Bunter Sandstone, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolster, C.; Mac Dowell, N.; Krevor, S. C.; Agada, S.

2016-12-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is needed for meeting legally binding greenhouse gas emissions targets in the UK (ECCC 2016). Energy systems models have been key to identifying the importance of CCS but they tend to impose few constraints on the availability and use of geologic CO2 storage reservoirs. Our aim is to develop simple models that use dynamic representations of limits on CO2 storage resources. This will allow for a first order representation of the storage reservoir for use in systems models with CCS. We use the ECLIPSE reservoir simulator and a model of the Southern North Sea Bunter Sandstone saline aquifer. We analyse reservoir performance sensitivities to scenarios of varying CO2 injection demand for a future UK low carbon energy market. With 12 injection sites, we compare the impact of injecting at a constant 2MtCO2/year per site and varying this rate by a factor of 1.8 and 0.2 cyclically every 5 and 2.5 years over 50 years of injection. The results show a maximum difference in average reservoir pressure of 3% amongst each case and a similar variation in plume migration extent. This suggests that simplified models can maintain accuracy by using average rates of injection over similar time periods. Meanwhile, by initiating injection at rates limited by pressurization at the wellhead we find that injectivity steadily increases. As a result, dynamic capacity increases. We find that instead of injecting into sites on a need basis, we can strategically inject the CO2 into 6 of the deepest sites increasing injectivity for the first 15 years by 13%. Our results show injectivity as highly dependent on reservoir heterogeneity near the injection site. Injecting 1MTCO2/year into a shallow, low permeability and porosity site instead of into a deep injection site with high permeability and porosity reduces injectivity in the first 5 years by 52%. ECCC. 2016. Future of Carbon Capture and Storage in the UK. UK Parliament House of Commons, Energy and Climate Change Committee, London: The Stationary Office Limited.

Dynamic oversight: implementation gaps and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, John

2011-04-01

Nanotechnology is touted as a transformative technology in that it is predicted to improve many aspects of human life. There are hundreds of products in the market that utilize nanostructures in their design, such as composite materials made out of carbon or metal oxides. Potential risks to consumers, to the environment, and to workers from the most common passive nanomaterial—carbon nanotubes—are emerging through scientific research. Newer more active nanostructures—such as cancer therapies and targeted drug systems—are also increasing in use and are raising similar risk concerns. Governing the risks to workers is the subject of this commentary. The Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970 grants the Occupational Safety and Health Administration the legal authority to set occupational health standards to insure that no worker suffers material impairment of health from work. However, setting a standard to protect workers from nanotechnology risks may occur some time in the future because the risks to workers have not been well characterized scientifically. Alternative risk governances—such as dynamic oversight through stakeholder partnerships, "soft law" approaches, and national adoption of international consensus standards—are evaluated in this article.

Transport of ions through a (6,6) carbon nanotube under electric fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Li; Xu, Zhen; Zhou, Zhe-Wei; Hu, Guo-Hui

2014-11-01

The transport of water and ions through carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is crucial in nanotechnology and biotechnology. Previous investigation indicated that the ions can hardly pass through (6,6) CNTs due to their hydrated shells. In the present study, utilizing molecular dynamics simulation, it is shown that the energy barrier mainly originating from the hydrated water molecules could be overcome by applying an electric field large enough in the CNT axis direction. Potential of mean force is calculated to show the reduction of energy barrier when the electric field is present for (Na+, K+, Cl-) ions. Consequently, ionic flux through (6,6) CNTs can be found once the electric field becomes larger than a threshold value. The variation of the coordination numbers of ions at different locations from the bulk to the center of the CNT is also explored to elaborate this dynamic process. The thresholds of the electric field are different for Na+, K+, and Cl- due to their characteristics. This consequence might be potentially applied in ion selectivity in the future.

Impact assessment of the carbon reduction strategy for transport, low carbon transport : a greener future

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

This is an impact assessment for the Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport (DfT, 2009), Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future, which is part of the UK Governments wider UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (DECC, 2009), Britains path to ta...

Characterisation of the Permafrost Carbon Pool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhry, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Ping, C.-L.; Schirrmeister, L.; Tarnocai, C.

2013-01-01

The current estimate of the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool in the northern permafrost region of 1672 Petagrams (Pg) C is much larger than previously reported and needs to be incorporated in global soil carbon (C) inventories. The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD), extended to include the range 0–300 cm, is now available online for wider use by the scientific community. An important future aim is to provide quantitative uncertainty ranges for C pool estimates. Recent studies have greatly improved understanding of the regional patterns, landscape distribution and vertical (soil horizon) partitioning of the permafrost C pool in the upper 3 m of soils. However, the deeper C pools in unconsolidated Quaternary deposits need to be better constrained. A general lability classification of the permafrost C pool should be developed to address potential C release upon thaw. The permafrost C pool and its dynamics are beginning to be incorporated into Earth System models, although key periglacial processes such as thermokarst still need to be properly represented to obtain a better quantification of the full permafrost C feedback on global climate change.

Diagnostics of Carbon Nanotube Formation in a Laser Produced Plume: Spectroscopic in situ nanotube detection using spectral absorption and surface temperature measurements by black body emission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeBoer, Gary D.

2005-01-01

Carbon nanotubes hold great promise for material advancements in the areas of composites and electronics. The advancement of research in these areas is dependent upon the availability of carbon nanotubes to a broad spectrum of academic and industrial researchers. Although there has been much progress made in reducing the costs of carbon nanotubes and increasing the quality and purity of the products, an increase in demand for still less expensive and specific nanotubes types has also grown. This summer's work has involved two experiments that have been designed to further the understanding of the dynamics and chemical mechanisms of carbon nanotube formation. It is expected that a better understanding of the process of formation of nanotubes will aid current production designs and stimulate ideas for future production designs increasing the quantity, quality, and production control of carbon nanotubes. The first experiment involved the measurement of surface temperature of the target as a function of time with respect to the ablation lasers. A peak surface temperature of 5000 K was determined from spectral analysis of black body emission from the target surface. The surface temperature as a function of various changes in operating parameters was also obtained. This data is expected to aid the modeling of ablation and plume dynamics. The second experiment involved a time and spatial measurement of the spectrally resolved absorbance of the laser produced plume. This experiment explored the possibility of developing absorbance and fluorescence to detect carbon nanotubes during production. To attain control over the production of nanotubes with specific properties and reduce costs, a real time in situ diagnostics method would be very beneficial. Results from this summer's work indicate that detection of nanotubes during production may possibly be used for production feed back control.

Permafrost peatland dynamics during the last millennia in NE European Russia and Finnish Lapland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hui; Väliranta, Minna; Piilo, Sanna; Amesbury, Matthew; Gallego-Sala, Angela; Charman, Dan

2016-04-01

Permafrost peatlands cover vast areas in circum-Arctic regions. Since the 1980s, annual temperatures in these areas have risen by ca. 2 °C and warming is projected to continue. Accordingly, the large carbon store in these peatlands may therefore be threatened. Alternatively, warming may increase productivity more than decomposition and peat accumulation rates may increase. To better understand how high latitude permafrost peatlands have responded to recent warming and what might be their future fate, we carried out detailed studies on two permafrost peatlands in NE Russia and two in Finnish Lapland. Our study methods included high resolution testate amoeba, plant macrofossil, C/N analyses, together with 210Pb and radiocarbon dating. We reconstructed changes in hydrological conditions, plant composition, and peat and carbon accumulation rates. Our preliminary results showed large variations in peat accumulation rates even within a very small area. Furthermore, testate amoeba and plant macrofossil data suggest variations in hydrological conditions during the last millennia. In the future, we will compare our regional data derived from different peatlands to each other, to climate reconstructions and to measured meteorological data.

CASSIA--a dynamic model for predicting intra-annual sink demand and interannual growth variation in Scots pine.

PubMed

Schiestl-Aalto, Pauliina; Kulmala, Liisa; Mäkinen, Harri; Nikinmaa, Eero; Mäkelä, Annikki

2015-04-01

The control of tree growth vs environment by carbon sources or sinks remains unresolved although it is widely studied. This study investigates growth of tree components and carbon sink-source dynamics at different temporal scales. We constructed a dynamic growth model 'carbon allocation sink source interaction' (CASSIA) that calculates tree-level carbon balance from photosynthesis, respiration, phenology and temperature-driven potential structural growth of tree organs and dynamics of stored nonstructural carbon (NSC) and their modifying influence on growth. With the model, we tested hypotheses that sink demand explains the intra-annual growth dynamics of the meristems, and that the source supply is further needed to explain year-to-year growth variation. The predicted intra-annual dimensional growth of shoots and needles and the number of cells in xylogenesis phases corresponded with measurements, whereas NSC hardly limited the growth, supporting the first hypothesis. Delayed GPP influence on potential growth was necessary for simulating the yearly growth variation, indicating also at least an indirect source limitation. CASSIA combines seasonal growth and carbon balance dynamics with long-term source dynamics affecting growth and thus provides a first step to understanding the complex processes regulating intra- and interannual growth and sink-source dynamics. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Fire, Carbon and Climate Change in Boreal Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flannigan, M. D.; Amiro, B. D.; Logan, K. A.

2005-12-01

Disturbances are the major stand-renewing agents for much of the circumboreal forest. In Canada, fire has received much of the attention in carbon cycle science because it affects about 3 million ha of Canadian forest annually, impacts air quality, and can threaten life, property and infrastructure. Fire affects the carbon balance through three processes. First, carbon and other greenhouse gases are emitted to the atmosphere during the combustion process. We estimate this to average about 27 Tg C/year in Canada over the past 40 years, which is close to 20% of industrial carbon emissions. However, in some years this can exceed 100 Tg C. Efforts are underway to estimate global fire activity and greenhouse gas emissions using observations, remote sensing and modelling. The second process is the decomposition of fire-killed vegetation. This forms a pool of coarse woody debris that can take decades to decompose, or can be quite rapid, depending on the post-fire environment. The third process is succession of vegetation following fire, a dynamic process that involves the interplay among species establishment and competition. Weather and climate affects all of these processes. Estimates of the future environment indicate that much of boreal Canada will experience warmer and drier conditions, although there will be regional differences and transient effects. The projections suggest that we may experience a doubling of area burned over the next century because of anthropogenic climate changes. This may have further implications to the global carbon budget by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This increase in fire activity may lead to a positive feedback cycle with the increased release of greenhouse gases. A run-away scenario is unlikely because young successional boreal vegetation often does not burn as readily and would limit the positive feedback cycle. Also, changes to the forest composition following fire increases surface albedo and alters the energy balance; effects that may cause climate cooling. However, the impacts of landscape feedbacks and human intervention limiting future fire are not well known.

An investigation of evapotranspiration rates within mid-western agricultural systems in response to elevated carbon dioxide and ozone concentrations and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, W. F.; Lombardozzi, D.; Levis, S.; Bonan, G. B.

2013-12-01

Warith Featherstone Abdullah, Danica Lombardozzi, Samuel Levis and Gordon Bonan Jackson State University Dept. of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences & Geosciences National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate & Global Dynamics Because the human population is expected to surpass 8 billion by the year 2050, food security is a pressing issue. In the face of elevated temperatures associated with climate change (CC), elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and elevated ozone (O3) concentrations, food productivity is uncertain. Plant stomata must be open to gain carbon which simultaneously causes water loss. Research suggests rising temperatures, elevated CO2 and elevated O3 in the future may impact plant stomata and change the rate plants lose water and take up carbon, affecting plant productivity and crop yields. Evapotranspiration (ET), latent heat fluxes, leaf carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) were analyzed in U.S Mid-west where crop density is greatest. Four simulations were run using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with an extended carbon-nitrogen model (CN). Analyses were based on June-July-August seasonal averages through 2080-2100 to compare the individual effects of CC, elevated CO2 and O3, and combined effects of all drivers. Results from model projections show increased ET with CC and all drivers combined, but only small changes from O3 or CO2 alone. Further results show that NPP was reduced with CC and O3 alone, but increased with CO2 alone and only slightly reduced with interacting components. The combined driver simulation, which most accurately represents future global change, suggests deteriorating water usage efficiency, thus potentially decreasing carbon uptake and crop production. However, further research is needed for verification. Midwest seasonal summation estimates for net primary productivity calculated by CLM4CN model. Climate change, CO2 and O3 levels are predicted using IPCC RCP8.5 scenarios.

Quantifying terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed, Upper Yangtze, China from 1975 to 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Yin, Runsheng; Li, Zhengpeng; Deng, Yulin; Tan, Kun; Deng, Xiangzheng; Rothstein, David; Qi, Jiaguo

2010-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is critical to our understanding of regional patterns of carbon budgets. Here we use the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System to simulate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed of China’s upper Yangtze basin from 1975 to 2000, based on unique combinations of spatial and temporal dynamics of major driving forces, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the Jinsha watershed ecosystems acted as a carbon sink during the period of 1975–2000, with an average rate of 0.36 Mg/ha/yr, primarily resulting from regional climate variation and local land use and land cover change. Vegetation biomass accumulation accounted for 90.6% of the sink, while soil organic carbon loss before 1992 led to a lower net gain of carbon in the watershed, and after that soils became a small sink. Ecosystem carbon sink/source patterns showed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Carbon sinks were associated with forest areas without disturbances, whereas carbon sources were primarily caused by stand-replacing disturbances. It is critical to adequately represent the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use activities in regional biogeochemical models to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of regional carbon sink/source patterns.

OCO-2 advances photosynthesis observation from space via solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Frankenberg, C.; Wood, J. D.; Schimel, D.; Jung, M.; Guanter, L.; Drewry, D.; Verma, M.; Porcar-Castell, A.; Griffis, T. J.; Gu, L.; Magney, T.; Köhler, P.; Evans, B. J.; Yuen, K.

2017-12-01

Quantifying gross primary production (GPP) remains a grand challenge in global carbon cycle research. Space-borne monitoring of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), an integrative photosynthetic signal of molecular origin, can assist in terrestrial GPP monitoring. However, the extent to which SIF tracks spatiotemporal variations in GPP remains unresolved. OCO-2 SIF's data acquisition and fine spatial resolution permit the first direct validation against ground/airborne observations. Empirical orthogonal function analysis shows consistent spatiotemporal correspondence between OCO-2 SIF and GPP globally. A linear SIF-GPP relationship is also obtained at eddy-flux sites covering diverse biomes, setting the stage for future investigations of the robustness of such relationship across more biomes. Our findings support the central importance of high-quality satellite SIF for studying terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics.

Lateral expansion and carbon exchange of a boreal peatland in Finland resulting in 7000 years of positive radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathijssen, Paul J. H.; Kähkölä, Noora; Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka; Lohila, Annalea; Minkkinen, Kari; Laurila, Tuomas; Väliranta, Minna

2017-03-01

Data on past peatland growth patterns, vegetation development, and carbon (C) dynamics during the various Holocene climate phases may help us to understand possible future climate-peatland feedback mechanisms. In this study, we analyzed and radiocarbon dated several peat cores from Kalevansuo, a drained bog in southern Finland. We investigated peatland succession and C dynamics throughout the Holocene. These data were used to reconstruct the long-term atmospheric radiative forcing, i.e., climate impact of the peatland since initiation. Kalevansuo peat records revealed a general development from fen to bog, typical for the southern boreal zone, but the timing of ombrotrophication varied in different parts of the peatland. Peat accumulation patterns and lateral expansion through paludification were influenced by fires and climate conditions. Long-term C accumulation rates were overall lower than the average values found from literature. We suggest the low accumulation rates are due to repeated burning of the peat surface. Drainage for forestry resulted in a nearly complete replacement of typical bog mosses by forest species within 40 years after drainage. The radiative forcing reconstruction suggested positive values (warming) for the first 7000 years following initiation. The change from positive to negative forcing was triggered by an expansion of bog vegetation cover and later by drainage. The strong relationship between peatland area and peat type with radiative forcing suggests a possible feedback for future changing climate, as high-latitude peatlands may experience prominent regime shifts, such as fen to bog transitions.

Can conservation funding be left to carbon finance? Evidence from participatory future land use scenarios in Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravikumar, Ashwin; Larjavaara, Markku; Larson, Anne; Kanninen, Markku

2017-01-01

Revenues derived from carbon have been seen as an important tool for supporting forest conservation over the past decade. At the same time, there is high uncertainty about how much revenue can reasonably be expected from land use emissions reductions initiatives. Despite this uncertainty, REDD+ projects and conservation initiatives that aim to take advantage of available or, more commonly, future funding from carbon markets have proliferated. This study used participatory multi-stakeholder workshops to develop divergent future scenarios of land use in eight landscapes in four countries around the world: Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico. The results of these future scenario building exercises were analyzed using a new tool, CarboScen, for calculating the landscape carbon storage implications of different future land use scenarios. The findings suggest that potential revenues from carbon storage or emissions reductions are significant in some landscapes (most notably the peat forests of Indonesia), and much less significant in others (such as the low-carbon forests of Zanzibar and the interior of Tanzania). The findings call into question the practicality of many conservation programs that hinge on expectations of future revenue from carbon finance. The future scenarios-based approach is useful to policy-makers and conservation program developers in distinguishing between landscapes where carbon finance can substantially support conservation, and landscapes where other strategies for conservation and land use should be prioritized.

Observationally-based Metrics of Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemical Variables are Essential for Evaluating Earth System Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.; Sarmiento, J. L.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean is central to the climate's response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases as it ventilates a large fraction of the global ocean volume. Global coupled climate models and earth system models, however, vary widely in their simulations of the Southern Ocean and its role in, and response to, the ongoing anthropogenic forcing. Due to its complex water-mass structure and dynamics, Southern Ocean carbon and heat uptake depend on a combination of winds, eddies, mixing, buoyancy fluxes and topography. Understanding how the ocean carries heat and carbon into its interior and how the observed wind changes are affecting this uptake is essential to accurately projecting transient climate sensitivity. Observationally-based metrics are critical for discerning processes and mechanisms, and for validating and comparing climate models. As the community shifts toward Earth system models with explicit carbon simulations, more direct observations of important biogeochemical parameters, like those obtained from the biogeochemically-sensored floats that are part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project, are essential. One goal of future observing systems should be to create observationally-based benchmarks that will lead to reducing uncertainties in climate projections, and especially uncertainties related to oceanic heat and carbon uptake.

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

PubMed

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterisation under static and dynamic conditions of commercial activated carbons for their use in wastewater plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabio, E.; Zamora, F.; González, J. F.; García, C. M. González; Román, S.; Al-Kassir, A.

2006-06-01

The use of activated carbon for removing organic contaminants in fixed beds is increasing. This is a dynamic process in which the kinetics plays an important role. The aim of this paper is to get more insight into adsorption of p-nitrophenol (PNP) in activated carbon under equilibrium and dynamic conditions. Five commercial activated carbons were studied. The analysis carried out were PNP adsorption isotherms in aqueous solution at 20 °C, N 2 at 77 K isotherms, FT-IR and PNP adsorption under dynamic conditions. The results indicate that the external porous affinity toward the organic contaminants determines in large extent the adsorbents behaviour under dynamic conditions.

Temporal biomass dynamics of an Arctic plankton bloom in response to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, K. G.; Bellerby, R. G. J.; Brussaard, C. P. D.; Büdenbender, J.; Czerny, J.; Engel, A.; Fischer, M.; Koch-Klavsen, S.; Krug, S. A.; Lischka, S.; Ludwig, A.; Meyerhöfer, M.; Nondal, G.; Silyakova, A.; Stuhr, A.; Riebesell, U.

2013-01-01

Ocean acidification and carbonation, driven by anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), have been shown to affect a variety of marine organisms and are likely to change ecosystem functioning. High latitudes, especially the Arctic, will be the first to encounter profound changes in carbonate chemistry speciation at a large scale, namely the under-saturation of surface waters with respect to aragonite, a calcium carbonate polymorph produced by several organisms in this region. During a CO2 perturbation study in Kongsfjorden on the west coast of Spitsbergen (Norway), in the framework of the EU-funded project EPOCA, the temporal dynamics of a plankton bloom was followed in nine mesocosms, manipulated for CO2 levels ranging initially from about 185 to 1420 μatm. Dissolved inorganic nutrients were added halfway through the experiment. Autotrophic biomass, as identified by chlorophyll a standing stocks (Chl a), peaked three times in all mesocosms. However, while absolute Chl a concentrations were similar in all mesocosms during the first phase of the experiment, higher autotrophic biomass was measured as high in comparison to low CO2 during the second phase, right after dissolved inorganic nutrient addition. This trend then reversed in the third phase. There were several statistically significant CO2 effects on a variety of parameters measured in certain phases, such as nutrient utilization, standing stocks of particulate organic matter, and phytoplankton species composition. Interestingly, CO2 effects developed slowly but steadily, becoming more and more statistically significant with time. The observed CO2-related shifts in nutrient flow into different phytoplankton groups (mainly dinoflagellates, prasinophytes and haptophytes) could have consequences for future organic matter flow to higher trophic levels and export production, with consequences for ecosystem productivity and atmospheric CO2.

Temporal biomass dynamics of an Arctic plankton bloom in response to increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, K. G.; Bellerby, R. G. J.; Brussaard, C. P. D.; Büdenbender, J.; Czerny, J.; Engel, A.; Fischer, M.; Koch-Klavsen, S.; Krug, S. A.; Lischka, S.; Ludwig, A.; Meyerhöfer, M.; Nondal, G.; Silyakova, A.; Stuhr, A.; Riebesell, U.

2012-09-01

Ocean acidification and carbonation, driven by anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), have been shown to affect a variety of marine organisms and are likely to change ecosystem functioning. High latitudes, especially the Arctic, will be the first to encounter profound changes in carbonate chemistry speciation at a large scale, namely the under-saturation of surface waters with respect to aragonite, a calcium carbonate polymorph produced by several organisms in this region. During a CO2 perturbation study in 2010, in the framework of the EU-funded project EPOCA, the temporal dynamics of a plankton bloom was followed in nine mesocosms, manipulated for CO2 levels ranging initially from about 185 to 1420 μatm. Dissolved inorganic nutrients were added halfway through the experiment. Autotrophic biomass, as identified by chlorophyll a standing stocks (Chl a), peaked three times in all mesocosms. However, while absolute Chl a concentrations were similar in all mesocosms during the first phase of the experiment, higher autotrophic biomass was measured at high in comparison to low CO2 during the second phase, right after dissolved inorganic nutrient addition. This trend then reversed in the third phase. There were several statistically significant CO2 effects on a variety of parameters measured in certain phases, such as nutrient utilization, standing stocks of particulate organic matter, and phytoplankton species composition. Interestingly, CO2 effects developed slowly but steadily, becoming more and more statistically significant with time. The observed CO2 related shifts in nutrient flow into different phytoplankton groups (mainly diatoms, dinoflagellates, prasinophytes and haptophytes) could have consequences for future organic matter flow to higher trophic levels and export production, with consequences for ecosystem productivity and atmospheric CO2.

Towards a better understanding of the sensitivity of permafrost and soil carbon to climate and disturbance-induced change in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastick, N. J.; Jorgenson, T.; Wylie, B. K.; Minsley, B. J.; Brown, D. N.; Genet, H.; Johnson, K. D.; McGuire, A. D.; Kass, A.; Knight, J. F.

2015-12-01

Recent increases in air temperature and disturbance activity have led to amplified rates of permafrost degradation and carbon remobilization across portions of Alaska. Further warming, coupled with increases in disturbance frequency and severity (i.e. wildfire, thermokarst), may exacerbate permafrost thaw and disappearance, which would have a profound effect on high-latitude ecological and socio-economic systems. Here we present research aimed at characterizing the sensitivity of different permafrost landscapes to climate and disturbance-induced change through a compilation of in-situ observations, remote sensing and geophysical data, time series analyses, and spatio-temporal modeling. Our data-driven approach allowed for the development of a quantitative assessment of permafrost's potential response to climate change. This analysis also identified indicators of permafrost's susceptibility to disturbances in Alaska. Initial results suggest that further climate-induced permafrost degradation is most likely to occur in regions characterized by discontinuous permafrost and transition zones between tundra, boreal, and temperate forest ecosystems. Permafrost-affected soils, underlying upland ecosystems, are typically more prone to climate and fire-induced change than lowland ecosystems with relatively thicker organic soil layers. However, field and geophysical data indicate that carbon rich silty lowlands are also prone to deep permafrost thaw (> 5 m) following severe disturbance. Because a substantial amount of frozen soil carbon will become susceptible to decomposition upon permafrost thaw, we combined recently developed permafrost carbon maps and future projections of permafrost distribution to highlight areas that may become potential emission hotspots under warmer temperatures. Despite advances in understanding of the drivers of ecological change, more work is needed to integrate studies that link observations of permafrost dynamics to factors that drive those dynamics.

The impact of different management techniques on carbon balance of a pine stand after windthrow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemblinska, Klaudia; Urbaniak, Marek; Merbold, Lutz; Chojnicki, Bogdan H.; Olejnik, Janusz

2015-04-01

Forest ecosystems cover approximately 1/3 of the global land area (and 29.8% in Poland). Since forests are constantly exposed to various types of disturbances - both natural and anthropogenic such as fires, wind, insects outbreaks or clear cuts - it is important to investigate the impact of such damages on the carbon dynamics. This becomes even more important due to the fact that future climate change will most likely result in a higher frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events. Even though wind damages cause large disturbances to forests only few places in the world exist where continuous measurements of carbon exchange (CO2) in windthrown sites are carried out. Besides the opportunity to assess the carbon dynamics following wind disturbance, there is an additional possibility of evaluating differences in post windthrow forest management practices. To fill this knowledge gap we set up two measuring stations in north-western Poland in the 500ha area of pine forest damaged by tornado in July 2012, to assess the impact of such disturbance on CO2 and H2O exchange by use of Eddy Covariance (EC) technique (Tlen I and Tlen II). Both sites are characterized by similar climatic as well as soil conditions and are located 3km from each other. While at the site Tlen I all biomass (coarse and fine woody debris were collected together with stumps) was removed and ploughed thereafter, at Tlen II only trunks and main branches were taken out from the site without ploughing. Total harvested biomass per hectare, as derived from local forest inventory, were almost 18 % higher at Tlen I than Tlen II site (where uprooted stumps were left to decompose). First analysis of the eddy covariance data shows that both sites are significant carbon sources. Emissions of carbon dioxide from the non-ploughed site (Tlen II) are higher than from the ploughed site (Tlen I). Both sites released more than 8.1 t of CO2 per ha during a three month time period (mid July to mid August 2014) after being prepared for reforestation as described above . Future analysis and continuation of the measurements will help to answer the following remaining questions: How does the carbon flux change in time at both sites? When does either system reach a compensation point (NEP0)? How large are the differences in CO2 loss between both sites? Which management technique appears to be more "carbon friendly" (less CO2 released to the atmosphere per decade). If these questions are answered they will allow to adapt current post-windthrow management activities and provide potential mitigation abilities in disturbed forest ecosystems.

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (CR&D) Delivery Order 0059: Molecular Dynamics Modeling Support

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

Molecular Dynamics Simulations 5 Theory: Equilibrium Molecular Dynamics Simulations 6 Theory: Non...Equilibrium Molecular Dynamics Simulations 8 Carbon Nanotube Simulations : Approach and results from equilibrium and non-equilibrium molecular dynamics ...touched from the perspective of molecular dynamics simulations . However, ordered systems such as “Carbon Nanotubes” have been investigated in terms

Projected effects of vegetation feedbacks on drought characteristics with SPEI over West Africa using the RegCM-CLM-CN-DV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaehyeong, L.; Kim, Y.; Erfanian, A.; Wang, G.; Um, M. J.

2017-12-01

This study utilizes the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to investigate the projected effect of vegetation feedbacks on drought in West Africa using the Regional Climate Model coupled to the NCAR Community Land Model with both the Carbon and Nitrogen module (CN) and Dynamic Vegetation module (DV) activated (RegCM-CLM-CN-DV). The role of vegetation feedbacks is examined based on simulations with and without dynamic vegetation. The four different future climate scenarios from CCSM, GFDL, MIROC and MPI are used as the boundary conditions of RegCM for two historical and future periods, i.e., for 1981 to 2000 and for 2081 to 2100, respectively. Using SPEI, the duration, frequency, severity and spatial extents are quantified over West Africa and analyzed for two regions of the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea. In this study, we find that the estimated annual SPEIs clearly indicate that the projected future droughts over the Sahel are enhanced and prolonged when DV is activated. The opposite is shown over the Gulf of Guinea in general. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800), by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180 and by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

Changes in Amazonian forest biomass, dynamics, and composition, 1980-2002

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, Oliver L.; Higuchi, Niro; Vieira, Simone; Baker, Timothy R.; Chao, Kuo-Jung; Lewis, Simon L.

Long-term, on-the-ground monitoring of forest plots distributed across Amazonia provides a powerful means to quantify stocks and fluxes of biomass and biodiversity. Here we examine the evidence for concerted changes in the structure, dynamics, and functional composition of old-growth Amazonian forests over recent decades. Mature forests have, as a whole, gained biomass and undergone accelerated growth and dynamics, but questions remain as to the long-term persistence of these changes. Because forest growth on average exceeds mortality, intact Amazonian forests have been functioning as a carbon sink. We estimate a net biomass increase in trees ≥10 cm diameter of 0.62 ± 0.23 t C ha-1 a-1 through the late twentieth century. If representative of the wider forest landscape, this translates into a sink in South American old-growth forest of at least 0.49 ± 0.18 Pg C a-1. If other biomass and necromass components also increased proportionally, the estimated South American old-growth forest sink is 0.79 ± 0.29 Pg C a-1, before allowing for possible gains in soil carbon. If tropical forests elsewhere are behaving similarly, the old-growth biomass forest sink would be 1.60 ± 0.58 Pg C a-1. This bottom-up estimate of the carbon balance of tropical forests is preliminary, pending syntheses of detailed biometric studies across the other tropical continents. There is also some evidence for recent changes in the functional composition (biodiversity) of Amazonian forest, but the evidence is less comprehensive than that for changes in structure and dynamics. The most likely driver(s) of changes are recent increases in the supply of resources such as atmospheric carbon dioxide, which would increase net primary productivity, increasing tree growth and recruitment, and, in turn, mortality. In the future the growth response of remaining undisturbed Amazonian forests is likely to saturate, and there is a risk of these ecosystems transitioning from sink to source driven by higher respiration (temperature), higher mortality (drought), or compositional change (functional shifts toward lighterwooded plants). Even a modest switch from carbon sink to source for Amazonian forests would impact global climate, biodiversity, and human welfare, while the documented acceleration of tree growth and mortality may already be affecting the interactions of thousands of plant and millions of animal species.

Improving SWAT for simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Xuesong

2016-11-01

As a widely used watershed model for assessing impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on water quantity and quality, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has not been extensively tested in simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems. Here, we examine SWAT simulations of evapotranspiration (ET), net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and plant biomass at ten AmeriFlux forest sites across the U.S. We identify unrealistic radiation use efficiency (Bio_E), large leaf to biomass fraction (Bio_LEAF), and missing phosphorus supply from parent material weathering as the primary causes for the inadequate performance of the default SWATmore » model in simulating forest dynamics. By further revising the relevant parameters and processes, SWAT’s performance is substantially improved. Based on the comparison between the improved SWAT simulations and flux tower observations, we discuss future research directions for further enhancing model parameterization and representation of water and carbon cycling for forests.« less

Selective observation of charge storing ions in supercapacitor electrode materials.

PubMed

Forse, Alexander C; Griffin, John M; Grey, Clare P

2018-02-01

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy has emerged as a useful technique for probing the structure and dynamics of the electrode-electrolyte interface in supercapacitors, as ions inside the pores of the carbon electrodes can be studied separately from bulk electrolyte. However, in some cases spectral resolution can limit the information that can be obtained. In this study we address this issue by showing how cross polarisation (CP) NMR experiments can be used to selectively observe the in-pore ions in supercapacitor electrode materials. We do this by transferring magnetisation from 13 C nuclei in porous carbons to nearby nuclei in the cations ( 1 H) or anions ( 19 F) of an ionic liquid. Two-dimensional NMR experiments and CP kinetics measurements confirm that in-pore ions are located within Ångströms of sp 2 -hybridised carbon surfaces. Multinuclear NMR experiments hold promise for future NMR studies of supercapacitor systems where spectral resolution is limited. Copyright © 2017 University of Cambridge. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interlayer shear behaviors of graphene-carbon nanotube network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Huasong; Liu, Yilun

2017-09-01

The interlayer shear resistance plays an important role in graphene related applications, and different mechanisms have been proposed to enhance its interlayer load capacity. In this work, we performed molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and theoretical analysis to study interlayer shear behaviors of three dimensional graphene-carbon (3D-GC) nanotube networks. The shear mechanical properties of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) crosslink with different diameters are obtained which is one order of magnitude larger than that of other types of crosslinks. Under shear loading, 3D-GC exhibits two failure modes, i.e., fracture of graphene sheet and failure of CNT crosslink, determined by the diameter of CNT crosslink, crosslink density, and length of 3D-GC. A modified tension-shear chain model is proposed to predict the shear mechanical properties and failure mode of 3D-GC, which agrees well with MD simulation results. The results presented in this work may provide useful insights for future development of high-performance 3D-GC materials.

Dynamic energy budget modeling reveals the potential of future growth and calcification for the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi in an acidified ocean.

PubMed

Muller, Erik B; Nisbet, Roger M

2014-06-01

Ocean acidification is likely to impact the calcification potential of marine organisms. In part due to the covarying nature of the ocean carbonate system components, including pH and CO2 and CO3(2-) levels, it remains largely unclear how each of these components may affect calcification rates quantitatively. We develop a process-based bioenergetic model that explains how several components of the ocean carbonate system collectively affect growth and calcification rates in Emiliania huxleyi, which plays a major role in marine primary production and biogeochemical carbon cycling. The model predicts that under the IPCC A2 emission scenario, its growth and calcification potential will have decreased by the end of the century, although those reductions are relatively modest. We anticipate that our model will be relevant for many other marine calcifying organisms, and that it can be used to improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on marine systems. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Lessons Learned from 2 Decades of Modelling Forest Dead Organic Matter and Soil Carbon at the National Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, C.; Kurz, W. A.; Metsaranta, J.; Bona, K. A.; Hararuk, O.; Smyth, C.

2017-12-01

The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is a forest carbon budget model that operates on individual stands. It is applied from regional to national-scales in Canada for national and international reporting of GHG emissions and removals and in support of analyses of forest sector mitigation options and other scientific and policy questions. This presentation will review the history and continuous improvement process of representations of dead organic matter (DOM) and soil carbon modelling. Early model versions in which dead organic matter (DOM) pools only included litter, downed deadwood and soil, to the current version where these pools are estimated separately to better compare model estimates against field measurements, or new pools have been added. Uncertainty analyses consistently point at soil C pools as large sources of uncertainty. With the new ground plot measurements from the National Forest Inventory, and with a newly compiled forest soil carbon database, we have recently completed a model data assimilation exercise that helped reduce parameter uncertainties. Lessons learned from the continuous improvement process will be summarised and we will discuss how model modification have led to improved representation of DOM and soil carbon dynamics. We conclude by suggesting future research priorities that can advance DOM and soil carbon modelling in Canadian forest ecosystems.

Remote Sensing Based Monitoring of Aquatic Carbon Dynamics; Developments of the CarbMonit Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ronghua; Loiselle, Steven; Zhang, Yuchao; Duan, Hongtao; Villa, Paolo; Donati, Alessandro; Li, Jing; Xue, Kun

2016-08-01

Inland waterbodies are some of the most productive on the planet (autochthonous production) and play a fundamental role in the transformation, transport and capture of carbon from terrestrial sources (allochthonous carbon). Carbon dynamics are regulated by a combination of biotic and abiotic processes: catchment import and export, detritus dynamics, photosynthetic and respiratory processes in the water column and sediment. Climate change and regional development combine to influence many of these processes, including catchment conditions, lake hydrology and organic matter degradation. The use of spatially extensive approaches is fundamental to explore the key transformation dynamics between organic and inorganic carbon pools.In the CarbMonit project, leading research institutions in China and Italy have worked in close collaboration to examine key mechanisms in aquatic carbon dynamics through the development of new technologies. The focus has been on the development of algorithms and modelling tools to examine spatial dynamics in three dimensions and temporal variability of the two major organic carbon pools, particular and dissolved organic carbon. Field measurements in major lakes are being used to create algorithms for multispectral and hyperspectral sensor data. The results of these activities are being used to estimate the generation and loss of aquatic carbon with respect to the dynamics of potential source and sink mechanisms. Particular efforts have been made to develop approaches based on the availability of medium- spectral resolution satellite sensor data. The results of the collaboration have been significant, with partners presenting results at major conferences throughout the world (ASLO 2015, COWM 2016, SIL 2016, IOCS 2013, EST, 2016. There have also been a number of collaborative publications [1-23], some of the mostrecent are presented below.

The biological carbon pump in the ocean: Reviewing model representations and its feedbacks on climate perturbations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hülse, Dominik; Arndt, Sandra; Ridgwell, Andy; Wilson, Jamie

2016-04-01

The ocean-sediment system, as the biggest carbon reservoir in the Earth's carbon cycle, plays a crucial role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate. Therefore, it is essential to constrain the importance of marine carbon cycle feedbacks on global warming and ocean acidification. Arguably, the most important single component of the ocean's carbon cycle is the so-called "biological carbon pump". It transports carbon that is fixed in the light-flooded surface layer of the ocean to the deep ocean and the surface sediment, where it is degraded/dissolved or finally buried in the deep sediments. Over the past decade, progress has been made in understanding different factors that control the efficiency of the biological carbon pump and their feedbacks on the global carbon cycle and climate (i.e. ballasting = ocean acidification feedback; temperature dependant organic matter degradation = global warming feedback; organic matter sulphurisation = anoxia/euxinia feedback). Nevertheless, many uncertainties concerning the interplay of these processes and/or their relative significance remain. In addition, current Earth System Models tend to employ empirical and static parameterisations of the biological pump. As these parametric representations are derived from a limited set of present-day observations, their ability to represent carbon cycle feedbacks under changing climate conditions is limited. The aim of my research is to combine past carbon cycling information with a spatially resolved global biogeochemical model to constrain the functioning of the biological pump and to base its mathematical representation on a more mechanistic approach. Here, I will discuss important aspects that control the efficiency of the ocean's biological carbon pump, review how these processes of first order importance are mathematically represented in existing Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) and distinguish different approaches to approximate biogeochemical processes in the sediments. The performance of the respective mathematical representations in constraining the importance of carbon pump feedbacks on marine biogeochemical dynamics is then compared and evaluated under different extreme climate scenarios (e.g. OAE2, Eocene) using the Earth system model 'GENIE' and proxy records. The compiled mathematical descriptions and the model results underline the lack of a complete and mechanistic framework to represent the short-term carbon cycle in most EMICs which seriously limits the ability of these models to constrain the response of the ocean's carbon cycle to past and in particular future climate change. In conclusion, this presentation will critically evaluate the approaches currently used in marine biogeochemical modelling and outline key research directions concerning model development in the future.

Impact of Seasonal Variability in Water, Plant and Soil Nutrient Dynamics in Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelak, N. F., III; Revelli, R.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Agroecosystems cover a significant fraction of the Earth's surface, making their water and nutrient cycles a major component of global cycles across spatial and temporal scales. Most agroecosystems experience seasonality via variations in precipitation, temperature, and radiation, in addition to human activities which also occur seasonally, such as fertilization, irrigation, and harvesting. These seasonal drivers interact with the system in complex ways which are often poorly characterized. Crop models, which are widely used for research, decision support, and prediction of crop yields, are among the best tools available to analyze these systems. Though normally constructed as a set of dynamical equations forced by hydroclimatic variability, they are not often analyzed using dynamical systems theory and methods from stochastic ecohydrology. With the goal of developing this viewpoint and thus elucidating the roles of key feedbacks and forcings on system stability and on optimal fertilization and irrigation strategies, we develop a minimal dynamical system which contains the key components of a crop model, coupled to a carbon and nitrogen cycling model, driven by seasonal fluctuations in water and nutrient availability, temperature, and radiation. External drivers include seasonally varying climatic conditions and random rainfall forcing, irrigation and fertilization as well as harvesting. The model is used to analyze the magnitudes and interactions of the effects of seasonality on carbon and nutrient cycles, crop productivity, nutrient export of agroecosystems, and optimal management strategies with reference to productivity, sustainability and profitability. The impact of likely future climate scenarios on these systems is also discussed.

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, J. A.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Romanovsky, V.E.

2011-01-01

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth) and fire severity. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the combined effects of fire-soil moisture interactions and snow seasonality on OC storage. OC losses were calculated as the difference in OC stocks after three fire cycles (???500 yr) following a prescribed step-change in climate and/or fire. Across single-factor scenarios, our findings indicate that warmer air temperatures resulted in the largest relative soil OC losses (???5.3 kg C mg-2), whereas dry soil conditions alone (in the absence of wildfire) resulted in the smallest carbon losses (???0.1 kg C mg-2). Increased fire severity resulted in carbon loss of ???3.3 kg C mg-2, whereas changes in snow depth resulted in smaller OC losses (2.1-2.2 kg C mg-2). Across multiple climate factors, we observed larger OC losses than for single-factor scenarios. For instance, high fire severity regime associated with warmer and drier conditions resulted in OC losses of ???6.1 kg C mg-2, whereas a low fire severity regime associated with warmer and wetter conditions resulted in OC losses of ???5.6 kg C mg-2. A longer snow-free season associated with future warming resulted in OC losses of ???5.4 kg C mg-2. Soil climate was the dominant control on soil OC loss, governing the sensitivity of microbial decomposers to fluctuations in temperature and soil moisture; this control, in turn, is governed by interannual changes in active layer depth. Transitional responses of the active layer depth to fire regimes also contributed to OC losses, primarily by determining the proportion of OC into frozen and unfrozen soil layers. ?? 2011 Author(s).

Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

2013-01-01

Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

Linking models and data on vegetation structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Thomas, R. Q.; Dubayah, R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Shugart, H. H.

2010-06-01

For more than a century, scientists have recognized the importance of vegetation structure in understanding forest dynamics. Now future satellite missions such as Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) hold the potential to provide unprecedented global data on vegetation structure needed to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon dynamics. Here, we briefly review the uses of data on vegetation structure in ecosystem models, develop and analyze theoretical models to quantify model-data requirements, and describe recent progress using a mechanistic modeling approach utilizing a formal scaling method and data on vegetation structure to improve model predictions. Generally, both limited sampling and coarse resolution averaging lead to model initialization error, which in turn is propagated in subsequent model prediction uncertainty and error. In cases with representative sampling, sufficient resolution, and linear dynamics, errors in initialization tend to compensate at larger spatial scales. However, with inadequate sampling, overly coarse resolution data or models, and nonlinear dynamics, errors in initialization lead to prediction error. A robust model-data framework will require both models and data on vegetation structure sufficient to resolve important environmental gradients and tree-level heterogeneity in forest structure globally.

Human impacts on soil carbon dynamics of deep-rooted Amazonian forests and effect of land use change on the carbon cycle in Amazon soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nepstad, Daniel; Stone, Thomas; Davidson, Eric; Trumbore, Susan E.

1992-01-01

The main objective of these NASA-funded projects is to improve our understanding of land-use impacts on soil carbon dynamics in the Amazon Basin. Soil contains approximately one half of tropical forest carbon stocks, yet the fate of this carbon following forest impoverishment is poorly studied. Our mechanistics approach draws on numerous techniques for measuring soil carbon outputs, inputs, and turnover time in the soils of adjacent forest and pasture ecosystems at our research site in Paragominas, state of Para, Brazil. We are scaling up from this site-specific work by analyzing Basin-wide patterns in rooting depth and rainfall seasonality, the two factors that we believe should explain much of the variation in tropical soil carbons dynamics. In this report, we summarize ongoing measurements at our Paragominas study site, progress in employing new field data to understand soil C dynamics, and some surprising results from our regional, scale-up work.

Temporal carbon dynamics of forests in Washington, US: implications for ecological theory and carbon management

Treesearch

Crystal L. Raymond; Donald McKenzie

2014-01-01

We quantified carbon (C) dynamics of forests in Washington, US using theoretical models of C dynamics as a function of forest age. We fit empirical models to chronosequences of forest inventory data at two scales: a coarse-scale ecosystem classification (ecosections) and forest types (potential vegetation) within ecosections. We hypothesized that analysis at the finer...

Sensitivity of chemical weathering and dissolved carbon dynamics to hydrological conditions in a typical karst river

PubMed Central

Zhong, Jun; Li, Si-liang; Tao, Faxiang; Yue, Fujun; Liu, Cong-Qiang

2017-01-01

To better understand the mechanisms that hydrological conditions control chemical weathering and carbon dynamics in the large rivers, we investigated hydrochemistry and carbon isotopic compositions of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) based on high-frequency sampling in the Wujiang River draining the carbonate area in southwestern China. Concentrations of major dissolved solute do not strictly follow the dilution process with increasing discharge, and biogeochemical processes lead to variability in the concentration-discharge relationships. Temporal variations of dissolved solutes are closely related to weathering characteristics and hydrological conditions in the rainy seasons. The concentrations of dissolved carbon and the carbon isotopic compositions vary with discharge changes, suggesting that hydrological conditions and biogeochemical processes control dissolved carbon dynamics. Biological CO2 discharge and intense carbonate weathering by soil CO2 should be responsible for the carbon variability under various hydrological conditions during the high-flow season. The concentration of DICbio (DIC from biological sources) derived from a mixing model increases with increasing discharge, indicating that DICbio influx is the main driver of the chemostatic behaviors of riverine DIC in this typical karst river. The study highlights the sensitivity of chemical weathering and carbon dynamics to hydrological conditions in the riverine system. PMID:28220859

Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates.

PubMed

Héon, Jessie; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André

2014-09-23

Boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks are strongly shaped by extensive wildfires. Coupling climate projections with records of area burned during the last 3 decades across the North American boreal zone suggests that area burned will increase by 30-500% by the end of the 21st century, with a cascading effect on ecosystem dynamics and on the boreal carbon balance. Fire size and the frequency of large-fire years are both expected to increase. However, how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future burn rates is poorly understood, mostly because of incomplete records of past fire overlaps. Here, we reconstruct the length of overlapping fires along a 190-km-long transect during the last 200 y in one of the most fire-prone boreal regions of North America to document how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future fire recurrence. We provide direct field evidence that extreme burn rates can be sustained by a few occasional droughts triggering immense fires. However, we also show that the most fire-prone areas of the North American boreal forest are resistant to high burn rates because of overabundant young forest stands, thereby creating a fuel-mediated negative feedback on fire activity. These findings will help refine projections of fire effect on boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks.

Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates

PubMed Central

Héon, Jessie; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André

2014-01-01

Boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks are strongly shaped by extensive wildfires. Coupling climate projections with records of area burned during the last 3 decades across the North American boreal zone suggests that area burned will increase by 30–500% by the end of the 21st century, with a cascading effect on ecosystem dynamics and on the boreal carbon balance. Fire size and the frequency of large-fire years are both expected to increase. However, how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future burn rates is poorly understood, mostly because of incomplete records of past fire overlaps. Here, we reconstruct the length of overlapping fires along a 190-km-long transect during the last 200 y in one of the most fire-prone boreal regions of North America to document how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future fire recurrence. We provide direct field evidence that extreme burn rates can be sustained by a few occasional droughts triggering immense fires. However, we also show that the most fire-prone areas of the North American boreal forest are resistant to high burn rates because of overabundant young forest stands, thereby creating a fuel-mediated negative feedback on fire activity. These findings will help refine projections of fire effect on boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks. PMID:25201981

Shifting carbon flow from roots into associated microbial communities in response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Drigo, Barbara; Pijl, Agata S; Duyts, Henk; Kielak, Anna M; Gamper, Hannes A; Houtekamer, Marco J; Boschker, Henricus T S; Bodelier, Paul L E; Whiteley, Andrew S; van Veen, Johannes A; Kowalchuk, George A

2010-06-15

Rising atmospheric CO(2) levels are predicted to have major consequences on carbon cycling and the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Increased photosynthetic activity is expected, especially for C-3 plants, thereby influencing vegetation dynamics; however, little is known about the path of fixed carbon into soil-borne communities and resulting feedbacks on ecosystem function. Here, we examine how arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) act as a major conduit in the transfer of carbon between plants and soil and how elevated atmospheric CO(2) modulates the belowground translocation pathway of plant-fixed carbon. Shifts in active AMF species under elevated atmospheric CO(2) conditions are coupled to changes within active rhizosphere bacterial and fungal communities. Thus, as opposed to simply increasing the activity of soil-borne microbes through enhanced rhizodeposition, elevated atmospheric CO(2) clearly evokes the emergence of distinct opportunistic plant-associated microbial communities. Analyses involving RNA-based stable isotope probing, neutral/phosphate lipid fatty acids stable isotope probing, community fingerprinting, and real-time PCR allowed us to trace plant-fixed carbon to the affected soil-borne microorganisms. Based on our data, we present a conceptual model in which plant-assimilated carbon is rapidly transferred to AMF, followed by a slower release from AMF to the bacterial and fungal populations well-adapted to the prevailing (myco-)rhizosphere conditions. This model provides a general framework for reappraising carbon-flow paths in soils, facilitating predictions of future interactions between rising atmospheric CO(2) concentrations and terrestrial ecosystems.

Potential for using remote sensing to estimate carbon fluxes across northern peatlands - A review.

PubMed

Lees, K J; Quaife, T; Artz, R R E; Khomik, M; Clark, J M

2018-02-15

Peatlands store large amounts of terrestrial carbon and any changes to their carbon balance could cause large changes in the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of the Earth's atmosphere. There is still much uncertainty about how the GHG dynamics of peatlands are affected by climate and land use change. Current field-based methods of estimating annual carbon exchange between peatlands and the atmosphere include flux chambers and eddy covariance towers. However, remote sensing has several advantages over these traditional approaches in terms of cost, spatial coverage and accessibility to remote locations. In this paper, we outline the basic principles of using remote sensing to estimate ecosystem carbon fluxes and explain the range of satellite data available for such estimations, considering the indices and models developed to make use of the data. Past studies, which have used remote sensing data in comparison with ground-based calculations of carbon fluxes over Northern peatland landscapes, are discussed, as well as the challenges of working with remote sensing on peatlands. Finally, we suggest areas in need of future work on this topic. We conclude that the application of remote sensing to models of carbon fluxes is a viable research method over Northern peatlands but further work is needed to develop more comprehensive carbon cycle models and to improve the long-term reliability of models, particularly on peatland sites undergoing restoration. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed, Upper Yangtze, China from 1975 to 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang; Yin, Runsheng; Li, Zhengpeng; Deng, Yulin; Tan, Kun; Deng, Xiangzheng; Rothstein, David; Qi, Jiaguo; Yin, Runsheng

2009-01-01

Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is critical to our understanding of regional patterns of carbon storage and loss. Here we use the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System to simulate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed of China's upper Yangtze basin from 1975 to 2000, based on unique combinations of spatial and temporal dynamics of major driving forces, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the Jinsha watershed ecosystems acted as a carbon sink during the period of 1975–2000, with an average rate of 0.36 Mg/ha/yr, primarily resulting from regional climate variation and local land use and land cover change. Vegetation biomass accumulation accounted for 90.6% of the sink, while soil organic carbon loss before 1992 led to lower net gain of carbon in the watershed, and after that soils became a small sink. Ecosystem carbon sinks/source pattern showed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity, Carbon sinks were associated with forest areas without disturbances, whereas carbon Sources were primarily caused by stand-replacing disturbances. This highlights the importance of land-use history in determining the regional carbon sinks/source pattern.

Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

2015-04-01

Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten sampling time in order to follow the dynamic of residue and soil organic matter mineralization. Diversity, structure and composition of microbial communities have been characterized before incubation time. The dynamic of carbon fluxes through CO2 emissions has been modelled through a simple model. Using statistical tools, relations between parameters of the model and microbial diversity indexes and/or pedological characteristics have been developed and integrated to the model. First results show that global diversity has an impact on the models parameters. Moreover, larger fungi diversity seems to lead to larger parameters representing decomposition rates and/or carbon use efficiencies than bacterial diversity. Classically, pedological factors such as soil pH and texture must also be taken into account.

Wind Erosion Caused by Land Use Changes Significantly Reduces Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Carbon Sequestration Potentials in Grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, P.; Chi, Y. G.; Wang, J.; Liu, L.

2017-12-01

Wind erosion exerts a fundamental influence on the biotic and abiotic processes associated with ecosystem carbon (C) cycle. However, how wind erosion under different land use scenarios will affect ecosystem C balance and its capacity for future C sequestration are poorly quantified. Here, we established an experiment in a temperate steppe in Inner Mongolia, and simulated different intensity of land uses: control, 50% of aboveground vegetation removal (50R), 100% vegetation removal (100R) and tillage (TI). We monitored lateral and vertical carbon flux components and soil characteristics from 2013 to 2016. Our study reveals three key findings relating to the driving factors, the magnitude and consequence of wind erosion on ecosystem C balance: (1) Frequency of heavy wind exerts a fundamental control over the severity of soil erosion, and its interaction with precipitation and vegetation characteristics explained 69% variation in erosion intensity. (2) With increases in land use intensity, the lateral C flux induced by wind erosion increased rapidly, equivalent to 33%, 86%, 111% and 183% of the net ecosystem exchange of the control site under control, 50R, 100R and TI sites, respectively. (3) After three years' treatment, erosion induced decrease in fine fractions led to 31%, 43%, 85% of permanent loss of C sequestration potential in the surface 5cm soil for 50R, 100R and TI sites. Overall, our study demonstrates that lateral C flux associated with wind erosion is too large to be ignored. The loss of C-enriched fine particles not only reduces current ecosystem C content, but also results in irreversible loss of future soil C sequestration potential. The dynamic soil characteristics need be considered when projecting future ecosystem C balance in aeolian landscape. We also propose that to maintain the sustainability of grassland ecosystems, land managers should focus on implementing appropriate land use rather than rely on subsequent managements on degraded soils.

The effect of fire and permafrost interactions on soil carbon accumulation in an upland black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska: Implications for post-thaw carbon loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, J. A.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Kanevskiy, M.Z.; Jorgenson, M.T.; Xu, X.

2011-01-01

High-latitude regions store large amounts of organic carbon (OC) in active-layer soils and permafrost, accounting for nearly half of the global belowground OC pool. In the boreal region, recent warming has promoted changes in the fire regime, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and alter soil OC dynamics in both organic and mineral soil. We examined how interactions between fire and permafrost govern rates of soil OC accumulation in organic horizons, mineral soil of the active layer, and near-surface permafrost in a black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska. To estimate OC accumulation rates, we used chronosequence, radiocarbon, and modeling approaches. We also developed a simple model to track long-term changes in soil OC stocks over past fire cycles and to evaluate the response of OC stocks to future changes in the fire regime. Our chronosequence and radiocarbon data indicate that OC turnover varies with soil depth, with fastest turnover occurring in shallow organic horizons (~60 years) and slowest turnover in near-surface permafrost (>3000 years). Modeling analysis indicates that OC accumulation in organic horizons was strongly governed by carbon losses via combustion and burial of charred remains in deep organic horizons. OC accumulation in mineral soil was influenced by active layer depth, which determined the proportion of mineral OC in a thawed or frozen state and thus, determined loss rates via decomposition. Our model results suggest that future changes in fire regime will result in substantial reductions in OC stocks, largely from the deep organic horizon. Additional OC losses will result from fire-induced thawing of near-surface permafrost. From these findings, we conclude that the vulnerability of deep OC stocks to future warming is closely linked to the sensitivity of permafrost to wildfire disturbance. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Impacts of urbanization on carbon balance in terrestrial ecosystems of the Southern United States.

PubMed

Zhang, Chi; Tian, Hanqin; Chen, Guangsheng; Chappelka, Arthur; Xu, Xiaofeng; Ren, Wei; Hui, Dafeng; Liu, Mingliang; Lu, Chaoqun; Pan, Shufen; Lockaby, Graeme

2012-05-01

Using a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, we assessed carbon dynamics of urbanized/developed lands in the Southern United States during 1945-2007. The results indicated that approximately 1.72 (1.69-1.77) Pg (1P = 10(15)) carbon was stored in urban/developed lands, comparable to the storage of shrubland or cropland in the region. Urbanization resulted in a release of 0.21 Pg carbon to the atmosphere during 1945-2007. Pre-urbanization vegetation type and time since land conversion were two primary factors determining the extent of urbanization impacts on carbon dynamics. After a rapid decline of carbon storage during land conversion, an urban ecosystem gradually accumulates carbon and may compensate for the initial carbon loss in 70-100 years. The carbon sequestration rate of urban ecosystem diminishes with time, nearly disappearing in two centuries after land conversion. This study implied that it is important to take urbanization effect into account for assessing regional carbon balance. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Evaluating the Community Land Model in a pine stand with shading manipulations and 13CO2 labeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Warren, J. M.; King, A. W.; Shi, X.; Iversen, C. M.; Norby, R. J.

2016-02-01

Carbon allocation and flow through ecosystems regulates land surface-atmosphere CO2 exchange and thus is a key, albeit uncertain, component of mechanistic models. The Partitioning in Trees and Soil (PiTS) experiment-model project tracked carbon allocation through a young Pinus taeda stand following pulse labeling with 13CO2 and two levels of shading. The field component of this project provided process-oriented data that were used to evaluate terrestrial biosphere model simulations of rapid shifts in carbon allocation and hydrological dynamics under varying environmental conditions. Here we tested the performance of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) in capturing short-term carbon and water dynamics in relation to manipulative shading treatments and the timing and magnitude of carbon fluxes through various compartments of the ecosystem. When calibrated with pretreatment observations, CLM4 was capable of closely simulating stand-level biomass, transpiration, leaf-level photosynthesis, and pre-labeling 13C values. Over the 3-week treatment period, CLM4 generally reproduced the impacts of shading on soil moisture changes, relative change in stem carbon, and soil CO2 efflux rate. Transpiration under moderate shading was also simulated well by the model, but even with optimization we were not able to simulate the high levels of transpiration observed in the heavy shading treatment, suggesting that the Ball-Berry conductance model is inadequate for these conditions. The calibrated version of CLM4 gave reasonable estimates of label concentration in phloem and in soil surface CO2 after 3 weeks of shade treatment, but it lacks the mechanisms needed to track the labeling pulse through plant tissues on shorter timescales. We developed a conceptual model for photosynthate transport based on the experimental observations, and we discussed conditions under which the hypothesized mechanisms could have an important influence on model behavior in larger-scale applications. Implications for future experimental studies are described, some of which are already being implemented in follow-on studies.

The effects of permafrost thaw on soil hydrologic, thermal, and carbon dynamics in an Alaskan peatland

Treesearch

Jonathan A. O' Donnell; M.Torre Jorgenson; Jennifer W. Harden; A.David McGuire; Mikhail Z. Kanevskiy; Kimberly P. Wickland

2012-01-01

Recent warming at high-latitudes has accelerated permafrost thaw in northern peatlands, and thaw can have profound effects on local hydrology and ecosystem carbon balance. To assess the impact of permafrost thaw on soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics, we measured soil hydrologic and thermal dynamics and soil OC stocks across a collapse-scar bog chronosequence in interior...

To Tip or Not to Tip: The Case of the Congo Basin Rainforest Realm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, S.; Bednar, J. E.; Fath, B. D.; Winter, P. A.

2017-12-01

The future response of the Congo basin rainforest, the second largest tropical carbon reservoir, to climate change is still under debate. Different Climate projections exist stating increase and decrease in rainfall and different changes in rainfall patterns. Within this study we assess all options of climate change possibilities to define the climatic thresholds of Congo basin rainforest stability and assess the limiting conditions for rainforest persistence. We use field data from 199 research plots from the Western Congo basin to calibrate and validate a complex BioGeoChemistry model (BGC-MAN) and assess model performance against an array of possible future climates. Next, we analyze the reasons for the occurrence of tipping points, their spatial and temporal probability of occurrence, will present effects of hysteresis and derive probabilistic spatial-temporal resilience landscapes for the region. Additionally, we will analyze attractors of forest growth dynamics and assess common linear measures for early warning signals of sudden shifts in system dynamics for their robustness in the context of the Congo Basin case, and introduce the correlation integral as a nonlinear measure of risk assessment.

Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F.; Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world: Future tree water dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna; Borrego, Isaac

Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density (FD), stomatal conductance (Gs), hydraulic conductivity (KL) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced the sensibility of stomata to VPD formore » both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD, Gs and KL. Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs, FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions.« less

Comparative carbon cycle dynamics of the present and last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, Victor; Brücher, Tim; Kleinen, Thomas; Zaehle, Sönke; Joos, Fortunat; Roth, Raphael; Spahni, Renato; Schmitt, Jochen; Fischer, Hubertus; Leuenberger, Markus; Stone, Emma J.; Ridgwell, Andy; Chappellaz, Jérôme; Kehrwald, Natalie; Barbante, Carlo; Blunier, Thomas; Dahl Jensen, Dorthe

2016-04-01

Changes in temperature and carbon dioxide during glacial cycles recorded in Antarctic ice cores are tightly coupled. However, this relationship does not hold for interglacials. While climate cooled towards the end of both the last (Eemian) and present (Holocene) interglacials, CO2 remained stable during the Eemian while rising in the Holocene. We identify and review twelve biogeochemical mechanisms of terrestrial (vegetation dynamics and CO2 fertilization, land use, wildfire, accumulation of peat, changes in permafrost carbon, subaerial volcanic outgassing) and marine origin (changes in sea surface temperature, carbonate compensation to deglaciation and terrestrial biosphere regrowth, shallow-water carbonate sedimentation, changes in the soft tissue pump, and methane hydrates), which potentially may have contributed to the CO2 dynamics during interglacials but which remain not well quantified. We use three Earth System Models (ESMs) of intermediate complexity to compare effects of selected mechanisms on the interglacial CO2 and δ13CO2 changes, focusing on those with substantial potential impacts: namely carbonate sedimentation in shallow waters, peat growth, and (in the case of the Holocene) human land use. A set of specified carbon cycle forcings could qualitatively explain atmospheric CO2 dynamics from 8 ka BP to the pre-industrial. However, when applied to Eemian boundary conditions from 126 to 115 ka BP, the same set of forcings led to disagreement with the observed direction of CO2 changes after 122 ka BP. This failure to simulate late-Eemian CO2 dynamics could be a result of the imposed forcings such as prescribed CaCO3 accumulation and/or an incorrect response of simulated terrestrial carbon to the surface cooling at the end of the interglacial. These experiments also reveal that key natural processes of interglacial CO2 dynamics - shallow water CaCO3 accumulation, peat and permafrost carbon dynamics - are not well represented in the current ESMs. Global-scale modeling of these long-term carbon cycle components started only in the last decade, and uncertainty in parameterization of these mechanisms is a main limitation in the successful modeling of interglacial CO2 dynamics.

Satellite passive microwaves for monitoring deforestation and drought-induced carbon losses in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, M.; Wigneron, J. P.; Chave, J.; Tagesson, T.; Penuelas, J.; Ciais, P.; Rasmussen, K.; Tian, F.; Mbow, C.; Al-Yaari, A.; Rodriguez-Fernandez, N.; Zhang, W.; Kerr, Y. H.; Tucker, C. J.; Mialon, A.; Verger, A.; Fensholt, R.

2017-12-01

The African continent is facing one of the driest periods in the past three decades and continuing deforestation. These disturbances threaten vegetation carbon (C) stocks and highlight the need for an operational tool for monitoring carbon stock dynamics. Knowledge of the amount, distribution, and turnover of carbon in African vegetation is crucial for understanding the effects of human pressure and climate change, but the shortcomings of optical and radar satellite products and the lack of systematic field inventories have led to considerable uncertainty in documenting patterns and dynamics of carbon stocks, in particular for drylands. Static carbon maps have been developed, but the temporal dynamics of carbon stocks cannot be derived from the benchmark maps, impeding timely, repeated, and reliable carbon assessments. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission launched in 2009 was the first passive microwave-based satellite system operating at L-band (1.4 GHz) frequency. The low frequencies allow the satellite to sense deep within the canopy layer with less influence by the green non-woody plant components. The vegetation optical depth (VOD) derived from SMOS, henceforth L-VOD, is thus less sensitive to saturation effects, marking an important step forward in the monitoring of carbon as a natural resource. In this study, we apply for the first time L-VOD to quantify the inter-annual dynamics of aboveground carbon stocks for the period 2010-2016. We use this new technique to document patterns of carbon gains and losses in sub-Saharan Africa with a focus of dryland response to recent dry years. Results show that drylands lost carbon at a rate of -0.06 Pg C y-1 associated with drying trends, while humid areas lost only -0.02 Pg C y-1. These trends reflect a high inter-annual variability with a very wet (2011) and a very dry year (2016) associated with carbon gains and losses respectively. This study demonstrates, first, the operational applicability of L-VOD to monitor the dynamics of carbon loss and gain due to climate variations and deforestation, and second, the importance of the highly dynamic and drought prone carbon pool of dryland savannahs for the global carbon balance, despite the relatively low carbon stock per unit area.

Changes in future fire regimes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut

2013-04-01

Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.

Piezoresistive strain sensing of carbon nanotubes-based composite skin for aeronautical morphing structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viscardi, Massimo; Arena, Maurizio; Barra, Giuseppina; Vertuccio, Luigi; Ciminello, Monica; Guadagno, Liberata

2018-03-01

Nowadays, smart composites based on different nano-scale carbon fillers, such as carbon nanotubes (CNTs), are increasingly being thought of as a more possible alternative solution to conventional smart materials, mainly for their improved electrical properties. Great attention is being given by the research community in designing highly sensitive strain sensors for more and more ambitious challenges: in such context, interest fields related to carbon nanotubes have seen extraordinary development in recent years. The authors aim to provide the most contemporary overview possible of carbon nanotube-based strain sensors for aeronautical application. A smart structure as a morphing wing needs an embedded sensing system in order to measure the actual deformation state as well as to "monitor" the structural conditions. Looking at more innovative health monitoring tools for the next generation of composite structures, a resin strain sensor has been realized. The epoxy resin was first analysed by means of a micro-tension test, estimating the electrical resistance variations as function of the load, in order to demonstrate the feasibility of the sensor. The epoxy dogbone specimen has been equipped with a standard strain gauge to quantify its strain sensitivity. The voltamperometric tests highlight a good linearity of the electrical resistance value as the load increases at least in the region of elastic deformation of the material. Such intrinsic piezoresistive performance is essentially attributable to the re-arrangement of conductive percolating network formed by MWCNT, induced by the deformation of the material due to the applied loads. The specimen has been prepared within this investigation, to demonstrate its performance for a future composite laminate typical of aerospace structures. The future carbon-fiber sensor can replace conventional metal foil strain gauges in aerospace applications. Furthermore, dynamic tests will be carried out to detect any non-reversible changes to the sensing response.

Effect of Inorganic and Organic Carbon Enrichments (DIC and DOC) on the Photosynthesis and Calcification Rates of Two Calcifying Green Algae from a Caribbean Reef Lagoon.

PubMed

Meyer, Friedrich W; Schubert, Nadine; Diele, Karen; Teichberg, Mirta; Wild, Christian; Enríquez, Susana

2016-01-01

Coral reefs worldwide are affected by increasing dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and organic carbon (DOC) concentrations due to ocean acidification (OA) and coastal eutrophication. These two stressors can occur simultaneously, particularly in near-shore reef environments with increasing anthropogenic pressure. However, experimental studies on how elevated DIC and DOC interact are scarce and fundamental to understanding potential synergistic effects and foreseeing future changes in coral reef function. Using an open mesocosm experiment, the present study investigated the impact of elevated DIC (pHNBS: 8.2 and 7.8; pCO2: 377 and 1076 μatm) and DOC (added as 833 μmol L-1 of glucose) on calcification and photosynthesis rates of two common calcifying green algae, Halimeda incrassata and Udotea flabellum, in a shallow reef environment. Our results revealed that under elevated DIC, algal photosynthesis decreased similarly for both species, but calcification was more affected in H. incrassata, which also showed carbonate dissolution rates. Elevated DOC reduced photosynthesis and calcification rates in H. incrassata, while in U. flabellum photosynthesis was unaffected and thalus calcification was severely impaired. The combined treatment showed an antagonistic effect of elevated DIC and DOC on the photosynthesis and calcification rates of H. incrassata, and an additive effect in U. flabellum. We conclude that the dominant sand dweller H. incrassata is more negatively affected by both DIC and DOC enrichments, but that their impact could be mitigated when they occur simultaneously. In contrast, U. flabellum can be less affected in coastal eutrophic waters by elevated DIC, but its contribution to reef carbonate sediment production could be further reduced. Accordingly, while the capacity of environmental eutrophication to exacerbate the impact of OA on algal-derived carbonate sand production seems to be species-specific, significant reductions can be expected under future OA scenarios, with important consequences for beach erosion and coastal sediment dynamics.

Effect of Inorganic and Organic Carbon Enrichments (DIC and DOC) on the Photosynthesis and Calcification Rates of Two Calcifying Green Algae from a Caribbean Reef Lagoon

PubMed Central

Diele, Karen; Teichberg, Mirta; Wild, Christian

2016-01-01

Coral reefs worldwide are affected by increasing dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and organic carbon (DOC) concentrations due to ocean acidification (OA) and coastal eutrophication. These two stressors can occur simultaneously, particularly in near-shore reef environments with increasing anthropogenic pressure. However, experimental studies on how elevated DIC and DOC interact are scarce and fundamental to understanding potential synergistic effects and foreseeing future changes in coral reef function. Using an open mesocosm experiment, the present study investigated the impact of elevated DIC (pHNBS: 8.2 and 7.8; pCO2: 377 and 1076 μatm) and DOC (added as 833 μmol L-1 of glucose) on calcification and photosynthesis rates of two common calcifying green algae, Halimeda incrassata and Udotea flabellum, in a shallow reef environment. Our results revealed that under elevated DIC, algal photosynthesis decreased similarly for both species, but calcification was more affected in H. incrassata, which also showed carbonate dissolution rates. Elevated DOC reduced photosynthesis and calcification rates in H. incrassata, while in U. flabellum photosynthesis was unaffected and thalus calcification was severely impaired. The combined treatment showed an antagonistic effect of elevated DIC and DOC on the photosynthesis and calcification rates of H. incrassata, and an additive effect in U. flabellum. We conclude that the dominant sand dweller H. incrassata is more negatively affected by both DIC and DOC enrichments, but that their impact could be mitigated when they occur simultaneously. In contrast, U. flabellum can be less affected in coastal eutrophic waters by elevated DIC, but its contribution to reef carbonate sediment production could be further reduced. Accordingly, while the capacity of environmental eutrophication to exacerbate the impact of OA on algal-derived carbonate sand production seems to be species-specific, significant reductions can be expected under future OA scenarios, with important consequences for beach erosion and coastal sediment dynamics. PMID:27487195

Further Studies on Oceanic Biogeochemistry and Carbon Cycling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, S. R.; McClain, C. R.

2003-01-01

This TM consists of two chapters. Chapter I describes the development of a coupled, one-dimensional biogeochemical model using turbulence closure mixed layer (TCMLM) dynamics. The model is applied to the Sargasso Sea at the BATS (Bermuda Atlantic Time Series) site and the results are compared with a previous model study in the same region described in NASNTP-2001-209991. The use of the TCMLM contributed to some improvements in the model simulation of chlorophyll, PAR, nitrate, phosphate, and oxygen, but most importantly, the current model achieved good agreement with the data with much more realistic background eddy diffusivity. However, off-line calculations of horizontal transport of biogeochemical properties revealed that one-dimensional dynamics can only provide a limited assessment of the nutrient and carbon balances at BATS. Future studies in the BATS region will require comprehensive three-dimensional field studies, combined with three-dimensional eddy resolving numerical experiments, to adequately quantify the impact of the local and remote forcing on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycling. Chapter II addresses the sensitivity of global sea-air CO, flux estimates to wind speed, temperature, and salinity. Sensitivity analyses of sea-air CO, flux to wind speed climatologies, gas transfer algorithms, SSS and SST were conducted for the global oceans and regional domains. Large uncertainties in the global sea-air flux are identified, primarily due to the different gas transfer algorithms used. The sensitivity of the sea-air flux to SST and SSS is similar in magnitude to the effect of using different wind climatologies. Globally, the mean ocean uptake of CO, changes by 5 to 16%, depending upon the combination of SST and SSS used.

Investigating the effect of fire dynamics on aboveground carbon storage in the Bateke landscape, Republic of Congo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieto Quintano, P.; Mitchard, E. T.; Ryan, C.; Tim, R.

2016-12-01

It is estimated that 68% of Africa's surface area burns every year (Roy et al. 2008), being the savanna biome the most continuously affected by burning with strong environmental and social impacts (Romero-Ruiz et al., 2010). Most fires in Africa are anthropogenic and occur during the Late Dry Season, but their dynamics and effects remain understudied. Sankaran et al. (2005) suggested that if disturbances by fire, browsers and humans were absent, then large areas of Africa would become forests. The main objective of this research is to understand the woody cover, productivity, carbon storage and fire regime of the complex forest/savanna system of the Bateke Plateau. The Bateke Plateau is a landscape composed of frequently burned grassland savanna surrounded by tropical forest, situated in the centre of the Republic of Congo. This study combines two approaches: firstly experimental, with long term field experiments where the fire regime is manipulated, and then observational, using remote sensing to study the past history of fire regime in the region. Field experiments suggest that late dry season fires are more intense and have higher mortality rates. We also investigated aboveground biomass, fire occurrence and intensity, using Landsat, ALOS PALSAR and the fire products of MODIS. We found that most savanna areas burnt at least once every 4 years, with more frequent fires occurring in the late dry season and around roads and settlements. This two approaches will be then combined to create a novel model of vegetation-fire-climate interactions in order to predict the vegetation response to different future scenarios. The results will be used to promote better management of this area to enhance carbon storage, as well as increase our understanding of vegetation dynamics in this understudied ecosystem and help orient policy and conservation.

Short and long-term carbon balance of bioenergy electricity production fueled by forest treatments.

PubMed

Kelsey, Katharine C; Barnes, Kallie L; Ryan, Michael G; Neff, Jason C

2014-01-01

Forests store large amounts of carbon in forest biomass, and this carbon can be released to the atmosphere following forest disturbance or management. In the western US, forest fuel reduction treatments designed to reduce the risk of high severity wildfire can change forest carbon balance by removing carbon in the form of biomass, and by altering future potential wildfire behavior in the treated stand. Forest treatment carbon balance is further affected by the fate of this biomass removed from the forest, and the occurrence and intensity of a future wildfire in this stand. In this study we investigate the carbon balance of a forest treatment with varying fates of harvested biomass, including use for bioenergy electricity production, and under varying scenarios of future disturbance and regeneration. Bioenergy is a carbon intensive energy source; in our study we find that carbon emissions from bioenergy electricity production are nearly twice that of coal for the same amount of electricity. However, some emissions from bioenergy electricity production are offset by avoided fossil fuel electricity emissions. The carbon benefit achieved by using harvested biomass for bioenergy electricity production may be increased through avoided pyrogenic emissions if the forest treatment can effectively reduce severity. Forest treatments with the use of harvested biomass for electricity generation can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere by offsetting fossil fuel electricity generation emissions, and potentially by avoided pyrogenic emissions due to reduced intensity and severity of a future wildfire in the treated stand. However, changes in future wildfire and regeneration regimes may affect forest carbon balance and these climate-induced changes may influence forest carbon balance as much, or more, than bioenergy production.

Tropical forests and the changing earth system.

PubMed

Lewis, Simon L

2006-01-29

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.

Impacts of tropical cyclones on U.S. forest tree mortality and carbon flux from 1851 to 2000

PubMed Central

Zeng, Hongcheng; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Hurtt, George C.; Baker, David B.; Powell, Mark D.

2009-01-01

Tropical cyclones cause extensive tree mortality and damage to forested ecosystems. A number of patterns in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity have been identified. There exist, however, few studies on the dynamic impacts of historical tropical cyclones at a continental scale. Here, we synthesized field measurements, satellite image analyses, and empirical models to evaluate forest and carbon cycle impacts for historical tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2000 over the continental U.S. Results demonstrated an average of 97 million trees affected each year over the entire United States, with a 53-Tg annual biomass loss, and an average carbon release of 25 Tg y−1. Over the period 1980–1990, released CO2 potentially offset the carbon sink in forest trees by 9–18% over the entire United States. U.S. forests also experienced twice the impact before 1900 than after 1900 because of more active tropical cyclones and a larger extent of forested areas. Forest impacts were primarily located in Gulf Coast areas, particularly southern Texas and Louisiana and south Florida, while significant impacts also occurred in eastern North Carolina. Results serve as an important baseline for evaluating how potential future changes in hurricane frequency and intensity will impact forest tree mortality and carbon balance. PMID:19416842

Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

2017-12-01

One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. At 8 kyr BP, vegetation cover was much denser in Africa, mainly due to increased rainfall in response to the orbital forcing. Boreal forests moved northward in both, North America and Eurasia. The boreal forest expansion in North America is much less pronounced than in Eurasia. Simulated physical ocean fields, including surface temperatures and meridional overturning, do not change substantially in the Holocene. Carbonate ion concentration in deep ocean decreases in both, prescribed and interactive CO2simulations. Comparison with available proxies for terrestrial vegetation and for the ocean carbonate chemistry will be presented. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon die to productivity decrease. This decadal-scale variability helps to quantify the vegetation and land carbon feedbacks during the past periods when the temporal resolution of the ice-core CO2 record is not sufficient to capture fast CO2 variations. From a set of Holocene simulations with prescribed or interactive atmospheric CO2, we get estimates of climate-carbon feedback useful for future climate studies.

Introduction to special issue on carbon and landscape dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madej, Mary Ann; Wohl, Ellen E.

2016-01-01

In October, 2013, at the Geological Society of America annual meeting, a theme session focused on carbon and landscape dynamics.  That event led to interest in producing a special issue in ESPL compiling papers on this subject.  The 13 papers collected for this special issue reflect the diversity of recent geomorphic research, across a range of climatic and geomorphic settings, addressing some aspect of carbon dynamics.

Assessing carbon dynamics in semiarid ecosystems : Balancing potential gains with potential large rapid losses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Breshears, D. D.; Ebinger, M. H.; Unkefer, P. J.

Photosynthesis and respiration are the largest fluxes into and out of the biosphere (Molles 1999). Consequently, small changes in these fluxes can potentially produce large changes in the storage of carbon in the biosphere. Terrestrial carbon fluxes account for more than half of the carbon transferred between the atmosphere and the earth's surface (about 120 GigaTons/year), and current stores of carbon in terrestrial ecosystem are estimated at 2060 GigaTons. Increasing attention is being focused on the role of managing and sequestering carbon in the terrestrial biosphere as a means for addressing global climate change (IGBP, 1998; U.S. Department of Energy,more » 1999). Terrestrial ecosystems are widely recognized as a major biological scrubber for atmosphereic CO{sub 2} and their ability to finction as such can be increased significantly over the next 25 years through careful manipulation. The potential for terrestrial carbon gains has been the subject of much attention (Dixon et al., 1994; Masera et al. 1997; Cao and Woodward, 1998; DeLucia et al. 1999). In contrast to other strategies for reducing net carbon emissions, terrestrial sequestration has the potential for rapid implementation. Strategies that focus on soil carbon are likely to be effective because in addition to being a storage pool of carbon, soil carbon also improves site productivity through improving soil quality (e.g., water retention and nutrient availability). The carbon pool in soils is immense and highly dynamic. The flux of carbon into and out of soils is one of the largest uncertainties in the total mass balance of global carbon (NRC, 1999; La1 et al., 1998; Cambardella, 1998). Reducing these uncertainties is key to developing carbon sequestration strategies. Soil carbon pools have been greatly depleted over recent centuries, and there is potential to increase storage of carbon in these soils through effective land management. Whereas carbon in vegetation can be managed directly through land use, carbon in soils generally must be managed indirectly through manipulation of vegetation and nutrients. Land management as well as climate changes have the potential to increase soil carbon, but also could trigger large soil carbon losses. Recently, the importance of accounting for countervailing losses in assessing potential amounts of terrestrial carbon that can be sequestered has been highlighted (Schlesinger, 1999; Walker et al., 1999). Realistic assessment of terrestrial carbon sequestration strategies must consider net results of an applied strategy, not simply projected carbon gains. In addition, large, rapid losses of carbon resulting from carbon management strategies could exacerbate the global warming rather than mitigating it. Such potential losses include rapid loss of carbon in vegetation due to fire and rapid loss of soil carbon triggered by reductions in ground cover (e.g., fire, drought). Therefore, strategies for terrestrial carbon sequestration must determine how to increase terrestrial carbon while minimizing the risk of large-scale catastrophic losses. Our objectives in this paper are to (1) highlight approaches that are being considered in terms of terrestrial carbon sequestration, (2) highlight case studies for which large losses of carbon may occur, and (3) suggest future directions and application for terrestrial carbon sequestration.« less

Continental-scale decrease in net primary productivity in streams due to climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Chao; Dodds, Walter K.; Rüegg, Janine; Argerich, Alba; Baker, Christina L.; Bowden, William B.; Douglas, Michael M.; Farrell, Kaitlin J.; Flinn, Michael B.; Garcia, Erica A.; Helton, Ashley M.; Harms, Tamara K.; Jia, Shufang; Jones, Jeremy B.; Koenig, Lauren E.; Kominoski, John S.; McDowell, William H.; McMaster, Damien; Parker, Samuel P.; Rosemond, Amy D.; Ruffing, Claire M.; Sheehan, Ken R.; Trentman, Matt T.; Whiles, Matt R.; Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Ballantyne, Ford

2018-06-01

Streams play a key role in the global carbon cycle. The balance between carbon intake through photosynthesis and carbon release via respiration influences carbon emissions from streams and depends on temperature. However, the lack of a comprehensive analysis of the temperature sensitivity of the metabolic balance in inland waters across latitudes and local climate conditions hinders an accurate projection of carbon emissions in a warmer future. Here, we use a model of diel dissolved oxygen dynamics, combined with high-frequency measurements of dissolved oxygen, light and temperature, to estimate the temperature sensitivities of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration in streams across six biomes, from the tropics to the arctic tundra. We find that the change in metabolic balance, that is, the ratio of gross primary production to ecosystem respiration, is a function of stream temperature and current metabolic balance. Applying this relationship to the global compilation of stream metabolism data, we find that a 1 °C increase in stream temperature leads to a convergence of metabolic balance and to a 23.6% overall decline in net ecosystem productivity across the streams studied. We suggest that if the relationship holds for similarly sized streams around the globe, the warming-induced shifts in metabolic balance will result in an increase of 0.0194 Pg carbon emitted from such streams every year.

Macronutrient and carbon supply, uptake and cycling across the Antarctic Peninsula shelf during summer

PubMed Central

Jones, Elizabeth M.; Venables, Hugh J.; Firing, Yvonne L.; Dittrich, Ribanna; Heiser, Sabrina; Dougans, Julie

2018-01-01

The West Antarctic Peninsula shelf is a region of high seasonal primary production which supports a large and productive food web, where macronutrients and inorganic carbon are sourced primarily from intrusions of warm saline Circumpolar Deep Water. We examined the cross-shelf modification of this water mass during mid-summer 2015 to understand the supply of nutrients and carbon to the productive surface ocean, and their subsequent uptake and cycling. We show that nitrate, phosphate, silicic acid and inorganic carbon are progressively enriched in subsurface waters across the shelf, contrary to cross-shelf reductions in heat, salinity and density. We use nutrient stoichiometric and isotopic approaches to invoke remineralization of organic matter, including nitrification below the euphotic surface layer, and dissolution of biogenic silica in deeper waters and potentially shelf sediment porewaters, as the primary drivers of cross-shelf enrichments. Regenerated nitrate and phosphate account for a significant proportion of the total pools of these nutrients in the upper ocean, with implications for the seasonal carbon sink. Understanding nutrient and carbon dynamics in this region now will inform predictions of future biogeochemical changes in the context of substantial variability and ongoing changes in the physical environment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change’. PMID:29760112

Macronutrient and carbon supply, uptake and cycling across the Antarctic Peninsula shelf during summer.

PubMed

Henley, Sian F; Jones, Elizabeth M; Venables, Hugh J; Meredith, Michael P; Firing, Yvonne L; Dittrich, Ribanna; Heiser, Sabrina; Stefels, Jacqueline; Dougans, Julie

2018-06-28

The West Antarctic Peninsula shelf is a region of high seasonal primary production which supports a large and productive food web, where macronutrients and inorganic carbon are sourced primarily from intrusions of warm saline Circumpolar Deep Water. We examined the cross-shelf modification of this water mass during mid-summer 2015 to understand the supply of nutrients and carbon to the productive surface ocean, and their subsequent uptake and cycling. We show that nitrate, phosphate, silicic acid and inorganic carbon are progressively enriched in subsurface waters across the shelf, contrary to cross-shelf reductions in heat, salinity and density. We use nutrient stoichiometric and isotopic approaches to invoke remineralization of organic matter, including nitrification below the euphotic surface layer, and dissolution of biogenic silica in deeper waters and potentially shelf sediment porewaters, as the primary drivers of cross-shelf enrichments. Regenerated nitrate and phosphate account for a significant proportion of the total pools of these nutrients in the upper ocean, with implications for the seasonal carbon sink. Understanding nutrient and carbon dynamics in this region now will inform predictions of future biogeochemical changes in the context of substantial variability and ongoing changes in the physical environment.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'. © 2018 The Authors.

Helium Adsorption on Carbon Nanotube Bundles with Different Diameters:. Molecular Dynamics Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majidi, R.; Karami, A. R.

2013-05-01

We have used molecular dynamics simulation to study helium adsorption capacity of carbon nanotube bundles with different diameters. Homogeneous carbon nanotube bundles of (8,8), (9,9), (10,10), (11,11), and (12,12) single walled carbon nanotubes have been considered. The results indicate that the exohedral adsorption coverage does not depend on the diameter of carbon nanotubes, while the endohedral adsorption coverage is increased by increasing the diameter.

Trade, transport, and sinks extend the carbon dioxide responsibility of countries: An editorial essay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peters, Glen P; Marland, Gregg; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2009-01-01

Globalization and the dynamics of ecosystem sinks need be considered in post-Kyoto climate negotiations as they increasingly affect the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. Currently, the allocation of responsibility for greenhouse gas mitigation is based on territorial emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, process emissions and some land-use emissions. However, at least three additional factors can significantly alter a country's impact on climate from carbon dioxide emissions. First, international trade causes a separation of consumption from production, reducing domestic pollution at the expense of foreign producers, or vice versa. Second, international transportation emissions are not allocated to countries for the purposemore » of mitigation. Third, forest growth absorbs carbon dioxide and can contribute to both carbon sequestration and climate change protection. Here we quantify how these three factors change the carbon dioxide emissions allocated to China, Japan, Russia, USA, and European Union member countries. We show that international trade can change the carbon dioxide currently allocated to countries by up to 60% and that forest expansion can turn some countries into net carbon sinks. These factors are expected to become more dominant as fossil-fuel combustion and process emissions are mitigated and as international trade and forest sinks continue to grow. Emission inventories currently in wide-spread use help to understand the global carbon cycle, but for long-term climate change mitigation a deeper understanding of the interaction between the carbon cycle and society is needed. Restructuring international trade and investment flows to meet environmental objectives, together with the inclusion of forest sinks, are crucial issues that need consideration in the design of future climate policies. And even these additional issues do not capture the full impact of changes in the carbon cycle on the global climate system.« less

Vascular plants promote ancient peatland carbon loss with climate warming.

PubMed

Walker, Tom N; Garnett, Mark H; Ward, Susan E; Oakley, Simon; Bardgett, Richard D; Ostle, Nicholas J

2016-05-01

Northern peatlands have accumulated one third of the Earth's soil carbon stock since the last Ice Age. Rapid warming across northern biomes threatens to accelerate rates of peatland ecosystem respiration. Despite compensatory increases in net primary production, greater ecosystem respiration could signal the release of ancient, century- to millennia-old carbon from the peatland organic matter stock. Warming has already been shown to promote ancient peatland carbon release, but, despite the key role of vegetation in carbon dynamics, little is known about how plants influence the source of peatland ecosystem respiration. Here, we address this issue using in situ (14)C measurements of ecosystem respiration on an established peatland warming and vegetation manipulation experiment. Results show that warming of approximately 1 °C promotes respiration of ancient peatland carbon (up to 2100 years old) when dwarf-shrubs or graminoids are present, an effect not observed when only bryophytes are present. We demonstrate that warming likely promotes ancient peatland carbon release via its control over organic inputs from vascular plants. Our findings suggest that dwarf-shrubs and graminoids prime microbial decomposition of previously 'locked-up' organic matter from potentially deep in the peat profile, facilitating liberation of ancient carbon as CO2. Furthermore, such plant-induced peat respiration could contribute up to 40% of ecosystem CO2 emissions. If consistent across other subarctic and arctic ecosystems, this represents a considerable fraction of ecosystem respiration that is currently not acknowledged by global carbon cycle models. Ultimately, greater contribution of ancient carbon to ecosystem respiration may signal the loss of a previously stable peatland carbon pool, creating potential feedbacks to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Atomistic Structure and Dynamics of the Solvation Shell Formed by Organic Carbonates around Lithium Ions via Infrared Spectroscopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Daniel; Fufler, Kristen

Lithium-ion batteries have become ubiquitous to the portable energy storage industry, but efficiency issues still remain. Currently, most technological and scientific efforts are focused on the electrodes with little attention on the electrolyte. For example, simple fundamental questions about the lithium ion solvation shell composition in commercially used electrolytes have not been answered. Using a combination of linear and non-linear IR spectroscopies and theoretical calculations, we have carried out a thorough investigation of the solvation structure and dynamics of the lithium ion in various linear and cyclic carbonates at common battery electrolyte concentrations. Our studies show that carbonates coordinate the lithium ion tetrahedrally. They also reveal that linear and cyclic carbonates have contrasting dynamics in which cyclic carbonates present the most ordered structure. Finally, our experiments demonstrate that simple structural modifications in the linear carbonates impact significantly the microscopic interactions of the system. The stark differences in the solvation structure and dynamics among different carbonates reveal previously unknown details about the molecular level picture of these systems.

Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model - Part 1: Abatement share and investment in low-carbon technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogutu, K. B. Z.; D'Andrea, F.; Ghil, M.; Nyandwi, C.; Manene, M. M.; Muthama, J. N.

2015-04-01

The Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model described herein takes an integrated assessment approach to simulating global change. By using an endogenous economic growth module with physical and human capital accumulation, this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth, as economic activity intensifies greenhouse gas emissions that in turn cause economic damage due to climate change. Different types of fossil fuels and different technologies produce different volumes of carbon dioxide in combustion. The shares of different fuels and their future evolution are not known. We assume that the dynamics of hydrocarbon-based energy share and their replacement with renewable energy sources in the global energy balance can be modeled into the 21st century by use of logistic functions. Various climate change mitigation policy measures are considered. While many integrated assessment models treat abatement costs merely as an unproductive loss of income, we consider abatement activities also as an investment in overall energy efficiency of the economy and decrease of overall carbon intensity of the energy system. The paper shows that these efforts help to reduce the volume of industrial carbon dioxide emissions, lower temperature deviations, and lead to positive effects in economic growth.

Diurnal patterns of gas-exchange and metabolic pools in tundra plants during three phases of the arctic growing season.

PubMed

Patankar, Rajit; Mortazavi, Behzad; Oberbauer, Steven F; Starr, Gregory

2013-02-01

Arctic tundra plant communities are subject to a short growing season that is the primary period in which carbon is sequestered for growth and survival. This period is often characterized by 24-h photoperiods for several months a year. To compensate for the short growing season tundra plants may extend their carbon uptake capacity on a diurnal basis, but whether this is true remains unknown. Here, we examined in situ diurnal patterns of physiological activity and foliar metabolites during the early, mid, and late growing season in seven arctic species under light-saturated conditions. We found clear diurnal patterns in photosynthesis and respiration, with midday peaks and midnight lulls indicative of circadian regulation. Diurnal patterns in foliar metabolite concentrations were less distinct between the species and across seasons, suggesting that metabolic pools are likely governed by proximate external factors. This understanding of diurnal physiology will also enhance the parameterization of process-based models, which will aid in better predicting future carbon dynamics for the tundra. This becomes even more critical considering the rapid changes that are occurring circumpolarly that are altering plant community structure, function, and ultimately regional and global carbon budgets.

Simulating effects of changing climate and CO(2) emissions on soil carbon pools at the Hubbard Brook experimental forest.

PubMed

Dib, Alain E; Johnson, Chris E; Driscoll, Charles T; Fahey, Timothy J; Hayhoe, Katharine

2014-05-01

Carbon (C) sequestration in forest biomass and soils may help decrease regional C footprints and mitigate future climate change. The efficacy of these practices must be verified by monitoring and by approved calculation methods (i.e., models) to be credible in C markets. Two widely used soil organic matter models - CENTURY and RothC - were used to project changes in SOC pools after clear-cutting disturbance, as well as under a range of future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2) ) scenarios. Data from the temperate, predominantly deciduous Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, USA, were used to parameterize and validate the models. Clear-cutting simulations demonstrated that both models can effectively simulate soil C dynamics in the northern hardwood forest when adequately parameterized. The minimum postharvest SOC predicted by RothC occurred in postharvest year 14 and was within 1.5% of the observed minimum, which occurred in year 8. CENTURY predicted the postharvest minimum SOC to occur in year 45, at a value 6.9% greater than the observed minimum; the slow response of both models to disturbance suggests that they may overestimate the time required to reach new steady-state conditions. Four climate change scenarios were used to simulate future changes in SOC pools. Climate-change simulations predicted increases in SOC by as much as 7% at the end of this century, partially offsetting future CO(2) emissions. This sequestration was the product of enhanced forest productivity, and associated litter input to the soil, due to increased temperature, precipitation and CO(2) . The simulations also suggested that considerable losses of SOC (8-30%) could occur if forest vegetation at HBEF does not respond to changes in climate and CO(2) levels. Therefore, the source/sink behavior of temperate forest soils likely depends on the degree to which forest growth is stimulated by new climate and CO(2) conditions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Holocene carbon dynamics at the forest-steppe ecotone of southern Siberia.

PubMed

Mackay, Anson William; Seddon, Alistair W R; Leng, Melanie J; Heumann, Georg; Morley, David W; Piotrowska, Natalia; Rioual, Patrick; Roberts, Sarah; Swann, George E A

2017-05-01

The forest-steppe ecotone in southern Siberia is highly sensitive to climate change; global warming is expected to push the ecotone northwards, at the same time resulting in degradation of the underlying permafrost. To gain a deeper understanding of long-term forest-steppe carbon dynamics, we use a highly resolved, multiproxy, palaeolimnological approach, based on sediment records from Lake Baikal. We reconstruct proxies that are relevant to understanding carbon dynamics including carbon mass accumulation rates (CMAR; g C m -2  yr -1 ) and isotope composition of organic matter (δ 13 C TOC ). Forest-steppe dynamics were reconstructed using pollen, and diatom records provided measures of primary production from near- and off-shore communities. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to identify significant change points in temporal series, and by applying generalized linear least-squares regression modelling to components of the multiproxy data, we address (1) What factors influence carbon dynamics during early Holocene warming and late Holocene cooling? (2) How did carbon dynamics respond to abrupt sub-Milankovitch scale events? and (3) What is the Holocene carbon storage budget for Lake Baikal. CMAR values range between 2.8 and 12.5 g C m -2  yr -1 . Peak burial rates (and greatest variability) occurred during the early Holocene, associated with melting permafrost and retreating glaciers, while lowest burial rates occurred during the neoglacial. Significant shifts in carbon dynamics at 10.3, 4.1 and 2.8 kyr bp provide compelling evidence for the sensitivity of the region to sub-Milankovitch drivers of climate change. We estimate that 1.03 Pg C was buried in Lake Baikal sediments during the Holocene, almost one-quarter of which was buried during the early Holocene alone. Combined, our results highlight the importance of understanding the close linkages between carbon cycling and hydrological processes, not just temperatures, in southern Siberian environments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integration of biomass data in the dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delbart, N.; Viovy, N.; Ciais, P.; Le Toan, T.

2009-04-01

Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are aimed at estimating exchanges between the terrestrial vegetated surface and the atmosphere, and the spatial distribution of natural vegetation types. For this purpose, DVMs use the climatic data alone to feed the vegetation process equations. As dynamic models, they can also give predictions under the current and the future climatic conditions. However, they currently lack accuracy in locating carbon stocks, sinks and sources, and in getting the correct magnitude. Consequently they have been essentially used to compare the vegetation responses under different scenarii. The assimilation of external data such as remote sensing data has been shown to improve the simulations. For example, the land cover maps are used to force the correct distribution of plant functional types (PFTs), and the leaf area index data is used to force the photosynthesis processes. This study concerns the integration of biomass data within the DVM ORCHIDEE. The objective here is to have the living carbon stocks with the correct magnitude and the correct location. Carbon stocks depend on interplay of carbon assimilated by photosynthesis, and carbon lost by respiration, mortality and disturbance. Biomass data can therefore be used as one essential constraint on this interplay. In this study, we use a large database provided by in-situ measurements of carbon stocks and carbon fluxes of old growth forests to constraint this interplay. For each PFT, we first adjust the simulated photosynthesis by reducing the mean error with the in situ measurements. Then we proceed similarly to adjust the autotrophic respiration. We then compare the biomass measured, and adjust the mortality processes in the model. Second, when processes are adjusted for each PFT to minimize the mean error on the carbon stock, biomass measurements can be assimilated. This assimilation is based on the hypothesis that the main variable explaining the biomass level at a given location is the age of the forest, i.e. the time elapsed since the last disturbance. Hence, the measured biomass level is used to estimate the time of the last disturbance which is introduced in the simulation. This approach is imperfect as it neglects the differences due to difference in the growth rate with site quality, but it allows considering more precisely the effect of forest regeneration in DVM, which until now either considered ecosystems under equilibrium state, or introduced disturbance randomly. This approach is promising for better locating carbon sinks and sources. This work is carried out in the framework of the preparation of the space mission BIOMASS, a spaceborne platform equipped with a P-band synthetic aperture radar aiming at measuring the forest above ground biomass.

Young's moduli of carbon materials investigated by various classical molecular dynamics schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayk, Florian; Ehrens, Julian; Heitmann, Tjark; Vorndamme, Patrick; Mrugalla, Andreas; Schnack, Jürgen

2018-05-01

For many applications classical carbon potentials together with classical molecular dynamics are employed to calculate structures and physical properties of such carbon-based materials where quantum mechanical methods fail either due to the excessive size, irregular structure or long-time dynamics. Although such potentials, as for instance implemented in LAMMPS, yield reasonably accurate bond lengths and angles for several carbon materials such as graphene, it is not clear how accurate they are in terms of mechanical properties such as for instance Young's moduli. We performed large-scale classical molecular dynamics investigations of three carbon-based materials using the various potentials implemented in LAMMPS as well as the EDIP potential of Marks. We show how the Young's moduli vary with classical potentials and compare to experimental results. Since classical descriptions of carbon are bound to be approximations it is not astonishing that different realizations yield differing results. One should therefore carefully check for which observables a certain potential is suited. Our aim is to contribute to such a clarification.

Geography of Global Forest Carbon Stocks & Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saatchi, S. S.; Yu, Y.; Xu, L.; Yang, Y.; Fore, A.; Ganguly, S.; Nemani, R. R.; Zhang, G.; Lefsky, M. A.; Sun, G.; Woodall, C. W.; Naesset, E.; Seibt, U. H.

2014-12-01

Spatially explicit distribution of carbon stocks and dynamics in global forests can greatly reduce the uncertainty in the terrestrial portion of the global carbon cycle by improving estimates of emissions and uptakes from land use activities, and help with green house gas inventory at regional and national scales. Here, we produce the first global distribution of carbon stocks in living woody biomass at ~ 100 m (1-ha) resolution for circa 2005 from a combination of satellite observations and ground inventory data. The total carbon stored in live woody biomass is estimated to be 337 PgC with 258 PgC in aboveground and 79 PgC in roots, and partitioned globally in boreal (20%), tropical evergreen (50%), temperate (12%), and woodland savanna and shrublands (15%). We use a combination of satellite observations of tree height, remote sensing data on deforestation and degradation to quantify the dynamics of these forests at the biome level globally and provide geographical distribution of carbon storage dynamics in terms sinks and sources globally.

Terrestrial carbon storage dynamics: Chasing a moving target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Shi, Z.; Jiang, L.; Xia, J.; Wang, Y.; Kc, M.; Liang, J.; Lu, X.; Niu, S.; Ahlström, A.; Hararuk, O.; Hastings, A.; Hoffman, F. M.; Medlyn, B. E.; Rasmussen, M.; Smith, M. J.; Todd-Brown, K. E.; Wang, Y.

2015-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have been estimated to absorb roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Past studies have identified myriad drivers of terrestrial carbon storage changes, such as fire, climate change, and land use changes. Those drivers influence the carbon storage change via diverse mechanisms, which have not been unified into a general theory so as to identify what control the direction and rate of terrestrial carbon storage dynamics. Here we propose a theoretical framework to quantitatively determine the response of terrestrial carbon storage to different exogenous drivers. With a combination of conceptual reasoning, mathematical analysis, and numeric experiments, we demonstrated that the maximal capacity of an ecosystem to store carbon is time-dependent and equals carbon input (i.e., net primary production, NPP) multiplying by residence time. The capacity is a moving target toward which carbon storage approaches (i.e., the direction of carbon storage change) but usually does not attain. The difference between the capacity and the carbon storage at a given time t is the unrealized carbon storage potential. The rate of the storage change is proportional to the magnitude of the unrealized potential. We also demonstrated that a parameter space of NPP, residence time, and carbon storage potential can well characterize carbon storage dynamics quantified at six sites ranging from tropical forests to tundra and simulated by two versions (carbon-only and coupled carbon-nitrogen) of the Australian Community Atmosphere-Biosphere Land Ecosystem (CABLE) Model under three climate change scenarios (CO2 rising only, climate warming only, and RCP8.5). Overall this study reveals the unified mechanism unerlying terrestrial carbon storage dynamics to guide transient traceability analysis of global land models and synthesis of empirical studies.

Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luo, Y.; Ahlström, Anders; Allison, Steven D.; Batjes, Niels H.; Brovkin, V.; Carvalhais, Nuno; Chappell, Adrian; Ciais, Philippe; Davidson, Eric A.; Finzi, Adien; Georgiou, Katerina; Guenet, Bertrand; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Harden, Jennifer; He, Yujie; Hopkins, Francesca; Jiang, L.; Koven, Charles; Jackson, Robert B.; Jones, Chris D.; Lara, M.; Liang, J.; McGuire, A. David; Parton, William; Peng, Changhui; Randerson, J.; Salazar, Alejandro; Sierra, Carlos A.; Smith, Matthew J.; Tian, Hanqin; Todd-Brown, Katherine E. O; Torn, Margaret S.; van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Wang, Ying; West, Tristram O.; Wei, Yaxing; Wieder, William R.; Xia, Jianyang; Xu, Xia; Xu, Xiaofeng; Zhou, T.

2016-01-01

Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.

Dynamics of maize carbon contribution to soil organic carbon in association with soil type and fertility level.

PubMed

Pei, Jiubo; Li, Hui; Li, Shuangyi; An, Tingting; Farmer, John; Fu, Shifeng; Wang, Jingkuan

2015-01-01

Soil type and fertility level influence straw carbon dynamics in the agroecosystems. However, there is a limited understanding of the dynamic processes of straw-derived and soil-derived carbon and the influence of the addition of straw carbon on soil-derived organic carbon in different soils associated with different fertility levels. In this study, we applied the in-situ carborundum tube method and 13C-labeled maize straw (with and without maize straw) at two cropland (Phaeozem and Luvisol soils) experimental sites in northeast China to quantify the dynamics of maize-derived and soil-derived carbon in soils associated with high and low fertility, and to examine how the addition of maize carbon influences soil-derived organic carbon and the interactions of soil type and fertility level with maize-derived and soil-derived carbon. We found that, on average, the contributions of maize-derived carbon to total organic carbon in maize-soil systems during the experimental period were differentiated among low fertility Luvisol (from 62.82% to 42.90), high fertility Luvisol (from 53.15% to 30.00%), low fertility Phaeozem (from 58.69% to 36.29%) and high fertility Phaeozem (from 41.06% to 16.60%). Furthermore, the addition of maize carbon significantly decreased the remaining soil-derived organic carbon in low and high fertility Luvisols and low fertility Phaeozem before two months. However, the increasing differences in soil-derived organic carbon between both soils with and without maize straw after two months suggested that maize-derived carbon was incorporated into soil-derived organic carbon, thereby potentially offsetting the loss of soil-derived organic carbon. These results suggested that Phaeozem and high fertility level soils would fix more maize carbon over time and thus were more beneficial for protecting soil-derived organic carbon from maize carbon decomposition.

Dynamics of Maize Carbon Contribution to Soil Organic Carbon in Association with Soil Type and Fertility Level

PubMed Central

Pei, Jiubo; Li, Hui; Li, Shuangyi; An, Tingting; Farmer, John; Fu, Shifeng; Wang, Jingkuan

2015-01-01

Soil type and fertility level influence straw carbon dynamics in the agroecosystems. However, there is a limited understanding of the dynamic processes of straw-derived and soil-derived carbon and the influence of the addition of straw carbon on soil-derived organic carbon in different soils associated with different fertility levels. In this study, we applied the in-situ carborundum tube method and 13C-labeled maize straw (with and without maize straw) at two cropland (Phaeozem and Luvisol soils) experimental sites in northeast China to quantify the dynamics of maize-derived and soil-derived carbon in soils associated with high and low fertility, and to examine how the addition of maize carbon influences soil-derived organic carbon and the interactions of soil type and fertility level with maize-derived and soil-derived carbon. We found that, on average, the contributions of maize-derived carbon to total organic carbon in maize-soil systems during the experimental period were differentiated among low fertility Luvisol (from 62.82% to 42.90), high fertility Luvisol (from 53.15% to 30.00%), low fertility Phaeozem (from 58.69% to 36.29%) and high fertility Phaeozem (from 41.06% to 16.60%). Furthermore, the addition of maize carbon significantly decreased the remaining soil-derived organic carbon in low and high fertility Luvisols and low fertility Phaeozem before two months. However, the increasing differences in soil-derived organic carbon between both soils with and without maize straw after two months suggested that maize-derived carbon was incorporated into soil-derived organic carbon, thereby potentially offsetting the loss of soil-derived organic carbon. These results suggested that Phaeozem and high fertility level soils would fix more maize carbon over time and thus were more beneficial for protecting soil-derived organic carbon from maize carbon decomposition. PMID:25774529

A blueprint for using climate change predictions in an eco-hydrological study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2009-12-01

There is a growing interest to extend climate change predictions to smaller, catchment-size scales and identify their implications on hydrological and ecological processes. Small scale processes are, in fact, expected to mediate climate changes, producing local effects and feedbacks that can interact with the principal consequences of the change. This is particularly applicable, when a complex interaction, such as the inter-relationship between the hydrological cycle and vegetation dynamics, is considered. This study presents a blueprint methodology for studying climate change impacts, as inferred from climate models, on eco-hydrological dynamics at the catchment scale. Climate conditions, present or future, are imposed through input hydrometeorological variables for hydrological and eco-hydrological models. These variables are simulated with an hourly weather generator as an outcome of a stochastic downscaling technique. The generator is parameterized to reproduce the climate of southwestern Arizona for present (1961-2000) and future (2081-2100) conditions. The methodology provides the capability to generate ensemble realizations for the future that take into account the heterogeneous nature of climate predictions from different models. The generated time series of meteorological variables for the two scenarios corresponding to the current and mean expected future serve as input to a coupled hydrological and vegetation dynamics model, “Tethys-Chloris”. The hydrological model reproduces essential components of the land-surface hydrological cycle, solving the mass and energy budget equations. The vegetation model parsimoniously parameterizes essential plant life-cycle processes, including photosynthesis, phenology, carbon allocation, and tissue turnover. The results for the two mean scenarios are compared and discussed in terms of changes in the hydrological balance components, energy fluxes, and indices of vegetation productivity The need to account for uncertainties in projections of future climate is discussed and a methodology for propagating these uncertainties into the probability density functions of changes in eco-hydrological variables is presented.

The steel scrap age.

PubMed

Pauliuk, Stefan; Milford, Rachel L; Müller, Daniel B; Allwood, Julian M

2013-04-02

Steel production accounts for 25% of industrial carbon emissions. Long-term forecasts of steel demand and scrap supply are needed to develop strategies for how the steel industry could respond to industrialization and urbanization in the developing world while simultaneously reducing its environmental impact, and in particular, its carbon footprint. We developed a dynamic stock model to estimate future final demand for steel and the available scrap for 10 world regions. Based on evidence from developed countries, we assumed that per capita in-use stocks will saturate eventually. We determined the response of the entire steel cycle to stock saturation, in particular the future split between primary and secondary steel production. During the 21st century, steel demand may peak in the developed world, China, the Middle East, Latin America, and India. As China completes its industrialization, global primary steel production may peak between 2020 and 2030 and decline thereafter. We developed a capacity model to show how extensive trade of finished steel could prolong the lifetime of the Chinese steelmaking assets. Secondary steel production will more than double by 2050, and it may surpass primary production between 2050 and 2060: the late 21st century can become the steel scrap age.

High-resolution Records of Proteinaceous Deep-Sea Coral δ13C and δ15N Values in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre Suggest Major Shifts in Nutrient and Phytoplankton Dynamics over the last 5000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glynn, D. S.; McCarthy, M. D.; McMahon, K.; Guilderson, T. P.

2016-02-01

The North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) is the largest continuous ecosystem on this planet, and currently expanding in a warming global climate. To understand current and future dynamics in productivity, biogeochemical cycling, and carbon sequestration, we must develop a more complete understanding of the dynamics in this important ecosystem in the past. Low sedimentation rates and high bioturbation make ocean-open sediment cores difficult to interpret at sufficiently high resolution. In contrast, deep-sea corals act as `living sediment traps' and incorporate the signal of sinking organic matter directly into the chronological growth bands of their proteinaceous skeletons. We reconstructed a 5,000 year, high resolution (decadal-scale) record of past changes in stable bulk nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon isotopes (δ13C) from multiple deep-sea corals around the Hawaiian archipelago. Previous studies have indicated a substantial decrease in both δ15N and δ13C (1 to 1.5‰) since the onset of the Industrial Revolution ( 1850s) to 1,000 year lows of 8‰ and -17‰ respectively (Sherwood et al. 2014, McMahon et al. 2015). Our new data now reveals that shifts of this magnitude are not unprecedented in the Mid- to Late Holocene. Our extended record indicates that over multi-millennial time scales there is a large range of natural variability, with δ15N values ranging from 8‰ to 12‰ and δ13C values ranging from -17‰ to -15‰. We propose that these signals reflect primarily shifts in phytoplankton species composition (as indicated by previous compound-specific work with amino acids). Comparisons with climate records suggest that these shifts may be directly linked to past changes in temperature (ocean stratification) and dust inputs. This study represents the first high-resolution record of nutrient and ecosystem dynamics in the NPSG over the past five millennia, and offers a historical baseline to better analyze the effects of current and future anthropogenic climate forcing.

Potential impacts of climate change on carbon dynamics in a rain-fed agro-ecosystem on the Loess Plateau of China.

PubMed

Qiu, Linjing; Hao, Mingde; Wu, Yiping

2017-01-15

Although many studies have been conducted on crop yield in rain-fed agriculture, the possible impacts of climate change on the carbon (C) dynamics of rain-fed rotation systems, particularly their direction and magnitude at the long-term scale, are still poorly understood. In this study, the sensitivity of C dynamics of a typical rotation system to elevated CO 2 and changed temperature and precipitation were first tested using the CENTURY model, based on data collected from a 30-year field experiment of a corn-wheat-wheat-millet (CWWM) rotation system in the tableland of the Loess Plateau. The possible responses of crop biomass C and soil organic C (SOC) accumulation were then evaluated under scenarios representing the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results indicated that elevated CO 2 and increased precipitation exerted positive effect on biomass C in CWWM rotation system, while increasing the temperature by 1°C, 2°C and 4°C had negative effects on biomass C due to opposite responses of corn and winter wheat to warming. SOC accumulation was enhanced by increased CO 2 concentration and precipitation but impaired by increased temperature. Under future RCP scenarios with dynamic CO 2 , the biomass C of corn exhibited decrease during the period of 2046-2075 under RCP4.5 and the period of 2016-2075 under RCP8.5 due to reduced precipitation and a warmer climate. In contrast, winter wheat would benefit from increased CO 2 and temperature and was projected to have larger biomass C under both RCP scenarios. Although the climate condition had large differences between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the projected SOC had similar trends under two scenarios due to CO 2 fertilizer effect and precipitation fluctuation. These results implied that crop biomass C and SOC accumulation in a warmer environment are strongly related to precipitation, and increase in field water storage should be emphasized in coping with future climate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Satellite observation of particulate organic carbon dynamics on the Louisiana continental shelf

EPA Science Inventory

Particulate organic carbon (POC) plays an important role in coastal carbon cycling and the formation of hypoxia. Yet, coastal POC dynamics are often poorly understood due to a lack of long-term POC observations and the complexity of coastal hydrodynamic and biogeochemical process...

A Future with (out) Carbon Cycle 2.0 (Carbon Cycle 2.0)

ScienceCinema

Collins, Bill [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2018-05-21

Bill Collins, Head of LBNL's Climate Sciences Department, speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 1, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: processes, data, models, and challenges

Treesearch

Shuguang Liu; Ben Bond-Lamberty; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Rodrigo Vargas; Shuqing Zhao; Jing Chen; Steven L. Edburg; Yueming Hu; Jinxun Liu; A. David McGuire; Jingfeng Xiao; Robert Keane; Wenping Yuan; Jianwu Tang; Yiqi Luo; Christopher Potter; Jennifer Oeding

2011-01-01

Forest disturbances greatly alter the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales. It is critical to understand disturbance regimes and their impacts to better quantify regional and global carbon dynamics. This review of the status and major challenges in representing the impacts of disturbances in modeling the carbon dynamics across North America revealed some...

Global terrestrial N2O budget for present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olin, Stefan; Xing, Xu-Ri; Wårlind, David; Eliasson, Peter; Smith, Ben; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

Nitrogen (N) plays an important role in plant productivity and physiology and is the main limiting nutrient in a majority of the terrestrial ecosystems. The enhanced input of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) in agriculture have enhanced global food production, but with adverse effects on biodiversity and water quality, and substantially increased emissions of N trace gases that affect air quality and climate. Emissions of N gases affects the climate, either through cloud forming nitrogen oxides (NOx) gases or as greenhouse gases, where nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important being approximately 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study we use the process-based global vegetation model Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) (Olin et al. 2015) that recently have incorporated a new soil N transformation scheme, adopted from Xu-Ri and Prentice (2008), which makes it possible to study the N2O emission respond to changes in climate and CO2 concentration as well as anthropogenic N enhancements on a global scale. We present here results from the validation of the new model against site-scale N2O measurements from agricultural and non-agricultural ecosystems. We will also present results from a study to examine how land use, land use change and anthropogenic N fertilisation influence historical and future global N2O emissions. This new development represents a key component within future projects in CMIP6 (LUMIP) and in EC-Earth for the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO. Olin, S., Lindeskog, M., Pugh, T., Schurgers, G., Mischurow, M., Wårlind, D., Zaehle, S., Stocker, B., Smith, B. and Arneth, A. 2015. Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching. Earth System Dynamics, 6, 745-768. Xu-Ri and Prentice IC. 2008. Terrestrial nitrogen cycle simulation with a dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology, 14, 1745-1764.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature.

PubMed

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C; Dey, Daniel; Muzika, Rose Marie

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature.

Modeling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R. W. A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V. K.; Melton, J. R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

2014-05-01

Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model (Lund Potsdam Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) was adapted to simulate present-day potential vegetation as a baseline for climate change impact assessments in the evergreen and deciduous forests of Bolivia. Results were compared to biomass measurements (819 plots) and remote sensing data. Using regional parameter values for allometric relations, specific leaf area, wood density, and disturbance interval, a realistic transition from the evergreen Amazon to the deciduous dry forest was simulated. This transition coincided with threshold values for precipitation (1400 mm yr-1) and water deficit (i.e., potential evapotranspiration minus precipitation) (-830 mm yr-1), beyond which leaf abscission became a competitive advantage. Significant correlations were found between modeled and observed values of seasonal leaf abscission (R2 = 0.6, p <0.001) and vegetation carbon (R2 = 0.31, p <0.01). Modeled Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index showed that dry forests were more sensitive to rainfall anomalies than wet forests. GPP was positively correlated to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index in the Amazon and negatively correlated to consecutive dry days. Decreasing rainfall trends were simulated to reduce GPP in the Amazon. The current model setup provides a baseline for assessing the potential impacts of climate change in the transition zone from wet to dry tropical forests in Bolivia.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature

PubMed Central

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Dey, Daniel

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature. PMID:28704457

Long-term impacts of manure amendments on carbon and greenhouse gas dynamics of rangelands.

PubMed

Owen, Justine J; Parton, William J; Silver, Whendee L

2015-12-01

Livestock manure is applied to rangelands as an organic fertilizer to stimulate forage production, but the long-term impacts of this practice on soil carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) dynamics are poorly known. We collected soil samples from manured and nonmanured fields on commercial dairies and found that manure amendments increased soil C stocks by 19.0 ± 7.3 Mg C ha(-1) and N stocks by 1.94 ± 0.63 Mg N ha(-1) compared to nonmanured fields (0-20 cm depth). Long-term historical (1700-present) and future (present-2100) impacts of management on soil C and N dynamics, net primary productivity (NPP), and GHG emissions were modeled with DayCent. Modeled total soil C and N stocks increased with the onset of dairying. Nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions also increased by ~2 kg N2 O-N ha(-1)  yr(-1) . These emissions were proportional to total N additions and offset 75-100% of soil C sequestration. All fields were small net methane (CH4 ) sinks, averaging -4.7 ± 1.2 kg CH4 -C ha(-1)  yr(-1) . Overall, manured fields were net GHG sinks between 1954 and 2011 (-0.74 ± 0.73 Mg CO2 e ha(-1)  yr(-1) , CO2 e are carbon dioxide equivalents), whereas nonmanured fields varied around zero. Future soil C pools stabilized 40-60 years faster in manured fields than nonmanured fields, at which point manured fields were significantly larger sources than nonmanured fields (1.45 ± 0.52 Mg CO2 e ha(-1)  yr(-1) and 0.51 ± 0.60 Mg CO2 e ha(-1)  yr(-1) , respectively). Modeling also revealed a large background loss of soil C from the passive soil pool associated with the shift from perennial to annual grasses, equivalent to 29.4 ± 1.47 Tg CO2 e in California between 1820 and 2011. Manure applications increased NPP and soil C storage, but plant community changes and GHG emissions decreased, and eventually eliminated, the net climate benefit of this practice. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of management and soil moisture regimes on wetland soils total carbon and nitrogen in Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamiri, Hellen; Kreye, Christine; Becker, Mathias

2013-04-01

Wetland soils play an important role as storage compartments for water, carbon and nutrients. These soils implies various conditions, depending on the water regimes that affect several important microbial and physical-chemical processes which in turn influence the transformation of organic and inorganic components of nitrogen, carbon, soil acidity and other nutrients. Particularly, soil carbon and nitrogen play an important role in determining the productivity of a soil whereas management practices could determine the rate and magnitude of nutrient turnover. A study was carried out in a floodplain wetland planted with rice in North-west Tanzania- East Africa to determine the effects of different management practices and soil water regimes on paddy soil organic carbon and nitrogen. Four management treatments were compared: (i) control (non weeded plots); (ii) weeded plots; (iii) N fertilized plots, and (iv) non-cropped (non weeded plots). Two soil moisture regimes included soil under field capacity (rainfed conditions) and continuous water logging compared side-by-side. Soil were sampled at the start and end of the rice cropping seasons from the two fields differentiated by moisture regimes during the wet season 2012. The soils differed in the total organic carbon and nitrogen between the treatments. Soil management including weeding and fertilization is seen to affect soil carbon and nitrogen regardless of the soil moisture conditions. Particularly, the padddy soils were higher in the total organic carbon under continuous water logged field. These findings are preliminary and a more complete understanding of the relationships between management and soil moisture on the temporal changes of soil properties is required before making informed decisions on future wetland soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics. Keywords: Management, nitrogen, paddy soil, total carbon, Tanzania,

Divergent patterns of experimental and model derived variables of tundra ecosystem carbon exchange in response to arctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaedel, C.; Koven, C.; Celis, G.; Hutchings, J.; Lawrence, D. M.; Mauritz, M.; Pegoraro, E.; Salmon, V. G.; Taylor, M.; Wieder, W. R.; Schuur, E.

2017-12-01

Warming over the Arctic in the last decades has been twice as high as for the rest of the globe and has exposed large amounts of organic carbon to microbial decomposition in permafrost ecosystems. Continued warming and associated changes in soil moisture conditions not only lead to enhanced microbial decomposition from permafrost soil but also enhanced plant carbon uptake. Both processes impact the overall contribution of permafrost carbon dynamics to the global carbon cycle, yet field and modeling studies show large uncertainties in regard to both uptake and release mechanisms. Here, we compare variables associated with ecosystem carbon exchange (GPP: gross primary production; Reco: ecosystem respiration; and NEE: net ecosystem exchange) from eight years of experimental soil warming in moist acidic tundra with the same variables derived from an experimental model (Community Land Model version 4.5: CLM4.5) that simulates the same degree of arctic warming. While soil temperatures and thaw depths exhibited comparable increases with warming between field and model variables, carbon exchange related parameters showed divergent patterns. In the field non-linear responses to experimentally induced permafrost thaw were observed in GPP, Reco, and NEE. Indirect effects of continued soil warming and thaw created changes in soil moisture conditions causing ground surface subsidence and suppressing ecosystem carbon exchange over time. In contrast, the model predicted linear increases in GPP, Reco, and NEE with every year of warming turning the ecosystem into a net annual carbon sink. The field experiment revealed the importance of hydrology in carbon flux responses to permafrost thaw, a complexity that the model may fail to predict. Further parameterization of variables that drive GPP, Reco, and NEE in the model will help to inform and refine future model development.

Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

2016-01-01

The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

Coupling between the continental carbon and water cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentine, P.; Lemordant, L. A.; Green, J. K.

2017-12-01

The continental carbon adn water cycles are fundamentally coupled through leaf gas exchange at the stomata level. IN this presnetation we will emphasize the importance of this coupling for the future of the water cycle (runoff, evaporation, soil moisture) and in turn the implications for the carbon cycle and the capacity of continents to act as a carbon dioxyde sink in the future. Opprtunites from coupled carbon-water monitoring platforms will be then emphasized.

Carbon Pools in a Temperate Heathland Resist Changes in a Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambus, P.; Reinsch, S.; Nielsen, P. L.; Michelsen, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Mikkelsen, T. N.

2014-12-01

The fate of recently plant assimilated carbon was followed into ecosystem carbon pools and fluxes in a temperate heathland after a 13CO2 pulse in the early growing season in a 6-year long multi-factorial climate change experiment. Eight days after the pulse, recently assimilated carbon was significantly higher in storage organs (rhizomes) of the grass Deschampsia flexuosa under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration. Experimental drought induced a pronounced utilization of recently assimilated carbon belowground (roots, microbes, dissolved organic carbon) potentially counterbalancing limited nutrient availability. The fate of recently assimilated carbon was not affected by moderate warming. The full factorial combination of elevated CO2, warming and drought simulating future climatic conditions as expected for Denmark in 2075 did not change short-term carbon turnover significantly compared to ambient conditions. Overall, climate factors interacted in an unexpected way resulting in strong resilience of the heathland in terms of short-term carbon turnover in a future climate.

Fire frequency drives decadal changes in soil carbon and nitrogen and ecosystem productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellegrini, Adam F. A.; Ahlström, Anders; Hobbie, Sarah E.; Reich, Peter B.; Nieradzik, Lars P.; Staver, A. Carla; Scharenbroch, Bryant C.; Jumpponen, Ari; Anderegg, William R. L.; Randerson, James T.; Jackson, Robert B.

2018-01-01

Fire frequency is changing globally and is projected to affect the global carbon cycle and climate. However, uncertainty about how ecosystems respond to decadal changes in fire frequency makes it difficult to predict the effects of altered fire regimes on the carbon cycle; for instance, we do not fully understand the long-term effects of fire on soil carbon and nutrient storage, or whether fire-driven nutrient losses limit plant productivity. Here we analyse data from 48 sites in savanna grasslands, broadleaf forests and needleleaf forests spanning up to 65 years, during which time the frequency of fires was altered at each site. We find that frequently burned plots experienced a decline in surface soil carbon and nitrogen that was non-saturating through time, having 36 per cent (±13 per cent) less carbon and 38 per cent (±16 per cent) less nitrogen after 64 years than plots that were protected from fire. Fire-driven carbon and nitrogen losses were substantial in savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests, but not in temperate and boreal needleleaf forests. We also observe comparable soil carbon and nitrogen losses in an independent field dataset and in dynamic model simulations of global vegetation. The model study predicts that the long-term losses of soil nitrogen that result from more frequent burning may in turn decrease the carbon that is sequestered by net primary productivity by about 20 per cent of the total carbon that is emitted from burning biomass over the same period. Furthermore, we estimate that the effects of changes in fire frequency on ecosystem carbon storage may be 30 per cent too low if they do not include multidecadal changes in soil carbon, especially in drier savanna grasslands. Future changes in fire frequency may shift ecosystem carbon storage by changing soil carbon pools and nitrogen limitations on plant growth, altering the carbon sink capacity of frequently burning savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests.

Fire frequency drives decadal changes in soil carbon and nitrogen and ecosystem productivity.

PubMed

Pellegrini, Adam F A; Ahlström, Anders; Hobbie, Sarah E; Reich, Peter B; Nieradzik, Lars P; Staver, A Carla; Scharenbroch, Bryant C; Jumpponen, Ari; Anderegg, William R L; Randerson, James T; Jackson, Robert B

2018-01-11

Fire frequency is changing globally and is projected to affect the global carbon cycle and climate. However, uncertainty about how ecosystems respond to decadal changes in fire frequency makes it difficult to predict the effects of altered fire regimes on the carbon cycle; for instance, we do not fully understand the long-term effects of fire on soil carbon and nutrient storage, or whether fire-driven nutrient losses limit plant productivity. Here we analyse data from 48 sites in savanna grasslands, broadleaf forests and needleleaf forests spanning up to 65 years, during which time the frequency of fires was altered at each site. We find that frequently burned plots experienced a decline in surface soil carbon and nitrogen that was non-saturating through time, having 36 per cent (±13 per cent) less carbon and 38 per cent (±16 per cent) less nitrogen after 64 years than plots that were protected from fire. Fire-driven carbon and nitrogen losses were substantial in savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests, but not in temperate and boreal needleleaf forests. We also observe comparable soil carbon and nitrogen losses in an independent field dataset and in dynamic model simulations of global vegetation. The model study predicts that the long-term losses of soil nitrogen that result from more frequent burning may in turn decrease the carbon that is sequestered by net primary productivity by about 20 per cent of the total carbon that is emitted from burning biomass over the same period. Furthermore, we estimate that the effects of changes in fire frequency on ecosystem carbon storage may be 30 per cent too low if they do not include multidecadal changes in soil carbon, especially in drier savanna grasslands. Future changes in fire frequency may shift ecosystem carbon storage by changing soil carbon pools and nitrogen limitations on plant growth, altering the carbon sink capacity of frequently burning savanna grasslands and broadleaf forests.

Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to assumptions and inputs in the algorithms that are incompatible with those encoded within CLM. It is probable that VOD describes changes in biomass more accurately than absolute values, so in additional to sequential assimilation of observations, we have tested alternative filter algorithms, and assimilating VOD anomalies.

Compound-specific amino acid isotopic analyses of invertebrates in the Chukchi Sea: New insights on food web dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, M.; Cooper, L. W.; Biasatti, D. M.; Kedra, M.; Grebmeier, J. M.

2016-02-01

Food web dynamics in the Chukchi Sea have been previously evaluated using bulk analysis of stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes of organisms. However, recent advances in compound-specific stable isotope analysis of amino acids indicate the potential to better identify the contributions of different dietary sources (e.g., pelagic vs. benthic, ice algae vs. phytoplankton) and to resolve complexities of food web structure that are difficult to address with bulk isotope analysis. Here we combine amino acid δ13C and δ15N data measured from primary producers and tissues of bivalves, polychaetes and other benthic invertebrates collected during two cruises in the summer of 2013 and 2015 in the Pacific Arctic. The results showed spatial variation of carbon isotope values in amino acids with difference up to 6 per mil for each individual species or taxa studied, indicating a shift in the food-web baseline geographically. Furthermore, the spatial variation in isotopic values was related to environmental factors, specifically sea ice extent, and total organic carbon, total organic nitrogen and the carbon/nitrogen ratio of the organic fractions of surface sediments. Results also indicated that trophic levels, as estimated by differences in the nitrogen isotope composition of glutamic acid and phenylalanine [Δ15Nglu-phe (δ15Nglu - δ15Nphe)], varied spatially by 0.5 to 1.5 trophic levels for certain species or taxa such as Macoma calcarea, Maldanidae and Ampelisca, indicating trophic level shifts that were associated with the food quality of organic matter in the organic fraction of the sediments. These results can be potentially used to predict future food web change in this high latitude marine system that is known for its ecological importance and on-going environmental changes, including warming and sea ice decline.

Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Bausch, Alexandra; Nazarenko, Larissa; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Xu, Baiqing; Edwards. Ross; Bisiaux, Marion; McConnell, Joe

2013-01-01

Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

Future Wildfire and Managed Fire Interactions in the Lake Tahoe Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheller, R.; Kretchun, A.

2017-12-01

Managing large forested landscape in the context of a changing climate and altered disturbance regimes presents new challenges and require integrated assessments of forest disturbance, management, succession, and the carbon cycle. Successful management under these circumstances will require information about trade-offs among multiple objectives and opportunities for spatially optimized landscape-scale management. Improved information about the effects of climate on forest communities, disturbance feedbacks, and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies enables actionable options for landscape managers. We evaluated the effects of fire suppression, wildfires, and forest fuel (thinning) treatments on the long-term carbon storage potential for Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) forests under various climate futures. We simulated management scenarios that encompass fuel treatments across the larger landscape, beyond the Wildland Urban Interface. We improved upon current fire modeling under climate change via an integrated fire modeling module that, a) explicitly captures the influence of climate, fuels, topography, active fire management (e.g., fire suppression), and fuel treatments, and b) can be parameterized from available data, e.g., remote sensing, field reporting, fire databases, expert opinion. These improvements increase geographic flexibility and decrease reliance on broad historical fire regime statistics - imperfect targets for a no analog future and require minimal parameterization and calibration. We assessed the interactions among fuel treatments, prescribe fire, fire suppression, and stochastically recurring wildfires. Predicted changes in climate and ignition patterns in response to future climatic conditions, vegetation dynamics, and fuel treatments indicate larger potential long-term effects on C emissions, forest structure, and forest composition than prior studies.

Climatic and biotic drivers of tropical evergreen forest photosynthesis: integrating field, eddy flux, remote sensing and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Serbin, S.; Xu, X.; Guan, K.; Albert, L.; Hayek, M.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Lopes, A. P.; Wiedemann, K. T.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Meng, R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Oliveira Junior, R. C.; Camargo, P. B. D.; Silva, R. D.; Nelson, B. W.; Huete, A. R.; Rogers, A.; Saleska, S. R.

2016-12-01

Tropical evergreen forest photosynthetic metabolism is an important driver of large-scale carbon, water, and energy cycles, generating various climate feedbacks. However, considerable uncertainties remain regarding how best to represent evergreen forest photosynthesis in current terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), especially its sensitivity to climatic vs. biotic variation. Here, we develop a new approach to partition climatic and biotic controls on tropical forest photosynthesis from hourly to inter-annual timescales. Our results show that climatic factors dominate photosynthesis dynamics at shorter-time scale (i.e. hourly), while biotic factors dominate longer-timescale (i.e. monthly and longer) photosynthetic dynamics. Focusing on seasonal timescales, we combine camera and ecosystem carbon flux observations of forests across a rainfall gradient in Amazonia to show that high dry season leaf turnover shifts canopy composition towards younger more efficient leaves. This seasonal variation in leaf quality (per-area leaf photosynthetic capacity) thus can explain the high photosynthetic seasonality observed in the tropics. Finally, we evaluated the performance of models with different phenological schemes (i.e. leaf quantity versus leaf quality; with and without leaf phenological variation alone the vertical canopy profile). We found that models which represented the phenology of leaf quality and its within-canopy variation performed best in simulating photosynthetic seasonality in tropical evergreen forests. This work highlights the importance of incorporating improved understanding of climatic and biotic controls in next generation TBMs to project future carbon and water cycles in the tropics.

Dynamics of microbial community composition and soil organic carbon mineralization in soil following addition of pyrogenic and fresh organic matter.

PubMed

Whitman, Thea; Pepe-Ranney, Charles; Enders, Akio; Koechli, Chantal; Campbell, Ashley; Buckley, Daniel H; Lehmann, Johannes

2016-12-01

Pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) additions to soils can have large impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) cycling. As the soil microbial community drives SOC fluxes, understanding how PyOM additions affect soil microbes is essential to understanding how PyOM affects SOC. We studied SOC dynamics and surveyed soil bacterial communities after OM additions in a field experiment. We produced and mixed in either 350 °C corn stover PyOM or an equivalent initial amount of dried corn stover to a Typic Fragiudept soil. Stover increased SOC-derived and total CO 2 fluxes (up to 6x), and caused rapid and persistent changes in bacterial community composition over 82 days. In contrast, PyOM only temporarily increased total soil CO 2 fluxes (up to 2x) and caused fewer changes in bacterial community composition. Of the operational taxonomic units (OTUs) that increased in response to PyOM additions, 70% also responded to stover additions. These OTUs likely thrive on easily mineralizable carbon (C) that is found both in stover and, to a lesser extent, in PyOM. In contrast, we also identified unique PyOM responders, which may respond to substrates such as polyaromatic C. In particular, members of Gemmatimonadetes tended to increase in relative abundance in response to PyOM but not to fresh organic matter. We identify taxa to target for future investigations of the mechanistic underpinnings of ecological phenomena associated with PyOM additions to soil.

In vivo detection of hemoglobin oxygen saturation and carboxyhemoglobin saturation with multiwavelength photoacoustic microscopy.

PubMed

Chen, Zhongjiang; Yang, Sihua; Xing, Da

2012-08-15

A method for noninvasively detecting hemoglobin oxygen saturation (SO2) and carboxyhemoglobin saturation (SCO) in subcutaneous microvasculature with multiwavelength photoacoustic microscopy is presented. Blood samples mixed with different concentrations of carboxyhemoglobin were used to test the feasibility and accuracy of photoacoustic microscopy compared with the blood-gas analyzer. Moreover, fixed-point detection of SO2 and SCO in mouse ear was obtained, and the changes from normoxia to carbon monoxide hypoxia were dynamically monitored in vivo. Experimental results demonstrate that multiwavelength photoacoustic microscopy can detect SO2 and SCO, which has future potential clinical applications.

The global carbon dioxide budget

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sundquist, E.T.

1993-01-01

The increase in atmospheric CO2 levels during the last deglaciation was comparable in magnitude to the recent historical increase. However, global CO2 budgets for these changes reflect fundamental differences in rates and in sources and sinks. The modern oceans are a rapid net CO2 sink, whereas the oceans were a gradual source during the deglaciation. Unidentified terrestrial CO2 sinks are important uncertainties in both the deglacial and recent CO2 budgets. The deglacial CO2 budget represents a complexity of long-term dynamic behavior that is not adequately addressed by current models used to forecast future atmospheric CO2 levels.

Simulations of carbon sputtering in fusion reactor divertor plates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marian, J; Zepeda-Ruiz, L A; Gilmer, G H

2005-10-03

The interaction of edge plasma with material surfaces raises key issues for the viability of the International Thermonuclear Reactor (ITER) and future fusion reactors, including heat-flux limits, net material erosion, and impurity production. After exposure of the graphite divertor plate to the plasma in a fusion device, an amorphous C/H layer forms. This layer contains 20-30 atomic percent D/T bonded to C. Subsequent D/T impingement on this layer produces a variety of hydrocarbons that are sputtered back into the sheath region. We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of D/T impacts on amorphous carbon layer as a function of ion energymore » and orientation, using the AIREBO potential. In particular, energies are varied between 10 and 150 eV to transition from chemical to physical sputtering. These results are used to quantify yield, hydrocarbon composition and eventual plasma contamination.« less

Coherent Phonon Rabi Oscillations with a High-Frequency Carbon Nanotube Phonon Cavity.

PubMed

Zhu, Dong; Wang, Xin-He; Kong, Wei-Cheng; Deng, Guang-Wei; Wang, Jiang-Tao; Li, Hai-Ou; Cao, Gang; Xiao, Ming; Jiang, Kai-Li; Dai, Xing-Can; Guo, Guang-Can; Nori, Franco; Guo, Guo-Ping

2017-02-08

Phonon-cavity electromechanics allows the manipulation of mechanical oscillations similar to photon-cavity systems. Many advances on this subject have been achieved in various materials. In addition, the coherent phonon transfer (phonon Rabi oscillations) between the phonon cavity mode and another oscillation mode has attracted many interest in nanoscience. Here, we demonstrate coherent phonon transfer in a carbon nanotube phonon-cavity system with two mechanical modes exhibiting strong dynamical coupling. The gate-tunable phonon oscillation modes are manipulated and detected by extending the red-detuned pump idea of photonic cavity electromechanics. The first- and second-order coherent phonon transfers are observed with Rabi frequencies 591 and 125 kHz, respectively. The frequency quality factor product fQ m ∼ 2 × 10 12 Hz achieved here is larger than k B T base /h, which may enable the future realization of Rabi oscillations in the quantum regime.

The researches on energy sustainability in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ping; Zhu, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Shuang

2018-06-01

Energy, which accounts for two-thirds of today's greenhouse gas emissions, is the key to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and slowing global warming. In this paper, the IPCC-recommended reference approach and scenario analysis were applied to evaluate dynamic change of the energy supply and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions within the period of 2000-2025 in Northern China (NC). The results show that energy importing reliance reached 85% in 2015 and the energy structure has become more diversified in NC. In addition, the per-capita CO2 emission is significantly higher while carbon intensity is lower than those of the national average. Under the LC scenario, CO2 emissions begin to fall for the first time in 2022. Hence, if Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction strategy and regional planning for NC are implemented fully, NC will achieve the national emission reduction targets in 2025 and will have a large CO2 mitigation potential in the future.

Carbon cycling in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century: a modeling analysis of the influences of soil thermal dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A.D.; Melillo, J.M.; Clein, Joy S.; Dargaville, R.J.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Dong, J.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Harden, J.; Hobbie, J.E.

2003-01-01

There is substantial evidence that soil thermal dynamics are changing in terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere and that these dynamics have implications for the exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. To date, large-scale biogeochemical models have been slow to incorporate the effects of soil thermal dynamics on processes that affect carbon exchange with the atmosphere. In this study we incorporated a soil thermal module (STM), appropriate to both permafrost and non-permafrost soils, into a large-scale ecosystem model, version 5.0 of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). We then compared observed regional and seasonal patterns of atmospheric CO2 to simulations of carbon dynamics for terrestrial ecosystems north of 30°N between TEM 5.0 and an earlier version of TEM (version 4.2) that lacked a STM. The timing of the draw-down of atmospheric CO2 at the start of the growing season and the degree of draw-down during the growing season were substantially improved by the consideration of soil thermal dynamics. Both versions of TEM indicate that climate variability and change promoted the loss of carbon from temperate ecosystems during the first half of the 20th century, and promoted carbon storage during the second half of the century. The results of the simulations by TEM suggest that land-use change in temperate latitudes (30–60°N) plays a stronger role than climate change in driving trends for increased uptake of carbon in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems (30–90°N) during recent decades. In the 1980s the TEM 5.0 simulation estimated that extratropical terrestrial ecosystems stored 0.55 Pg C yr−1, with 0.24 Pg C yr−1 in North America and 0.31 Pg C yr−1 in northern Eurasia. From 1990 through 1995 the model simulated that these ecosystems stored 0.90 Pg C yr−1, with 0.27 Pg C yr−1 stored in North America and 0.63 Pg C yr−1 stored in northern Eurasia. Thus, in comparison to the 1980s, simulated net carbon storage in the 1990s was enhanced by an additional 0.35 Pg C yr−1 in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems, with most of the additional storage in northern Eurasia. The carbon storage simulated by TEM 5.0 in the 1980s and 1990s was lower than estimates based on other methodologies, including estimates by atmospheric inversion models and remote sensing and inventory analyses. This suggests that other issues besides the role of soil thermal dynamics may be responsible, in part, for the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage of extratropical terrestrial ecosystems. In conclusion, the consideration of soil thermal dynamics and terrestrial cryospheric processes in modeling the global carbon cycle has helped to reduce biases in the simulation of the seasonality of carbon dynamics of extratropical terrestrial ecosystems. This progress should lead to an enhanced ability to clarify the role of other issues that influence carbon dynamics in terrestrial regions that experience seasonal freezing and thawing of soil.

The carbon debt from Amazon forest degradation: integrating airborne lidar, field measurements, and an ecosystem demography model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, M.; Keller, M. M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.; Pinagé, E. R.; Leitold, V.; Morton, D. C.

2016-12-01

Amazon deforestation has declined over the last decade, yet forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation continue to impact forest carbon stocks and fluxes. The magnitude of this impact remains uncertain, and observation-based studies are often limited by short time intervals or small study areas. To better understand the long-term impact of forest degradation and recovery, we have been developing a framework that integrates field plot measurements and airborne lidar surveys into an individual- and process-based model (Ecosystem Demography model, ED). We modeled forest dynamics for three forest landscapes in the Amazon with diverse degradation histories: conventional and reduced-impact logging, logging and burning, and multiple burns. Based on the initialization with contemporary forest structure and composition, model results suggest that degraded forests rapidly recover (30 years) water and energy fluxes compared with old-growth, even at sites that were affected by multiple fires. However, degraded forests maintained different carbon stocks and fluxes even after 100 years without further disturbances, because of persistent differences in forest structure and composition. Recurrent disturbances may hinder the recovery of degraded forests. Simulations using a simple fire model entirely dependent on environmental controls indicate that the most degraded forests would take much longer to reach biomass typical of old-growth forests, because drier conditions near the ground make subsequent fires more intense and more recurrent. Fires in tropical forests are also closely related to nearby human activities; while results suggest an important feedback between fires and the microenvironment, additional work is needed to improve how the model represents the human impact on current and future fire regimes. Our study highlights that recovery of degraded forests may act as an important carbon sink, but efficient recovery depends on controlling future disturbances.

CO2 and CH4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J.M.; Sarofim, M.C.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Felzer, B.S.; Sokolov, A.; Prinn, R.G.; Steudler, P.A.; Hu, S.

2006-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high latitudes (above 50??N) exchange large amounts of CO2 and CH4 with the atmosphere each year. Here we use a process-based model to estimate the budget of CO 2 and CH4 of the region for current climate conditions and for future scenarios by considering effects of permafrost dynamics, CO 2 fertilization of photosynthesis and fire. We find that currently the region is a net source of carbon to the atmosphere at 276 Tg C yr -1. We project that throughout the 21st century, the region will most likely continue as a net source of carbon and the source will increase by up to 473 Tg C yr-1 by the end of the century compared to the current emissions. However our coupled carbon and climate model simulations show that these emissions will exert relatively small radiative forcing on global climate system compared to large amounts of anthropogenic emissions. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Sorption and modeling of mass transfer of toxic chemical vapors in activated-carbon fiber-cloth adsorbers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lordgooei, M.; Sagen, J.; Rood, M.J.; Rostam-Abadi, M.

1998-01-01

A new activated-carbon fiber-cloth (ACFC) adsorber coupled with an electrothermal regenerator and a cryogenic condenser was designed and developed to efficiently capture and recover toxic chemical vapors (TCVs) from simulated industrial gas streams. The system was characterized for adsorption by ACFC, electrothermal desorption, and cryogenic condensation to separate acetone and methyl ethyl ketone from gas streams. Adsorption dynamics are numerically modeled to predict system characteristics during scale-up and optimization of the process in the future. The model requires diffusivities of TCVs into an activated-carbon fiber (ACF) as an input. Effective diffusivities of TCVs into ACFs were modeled as a function of temperature, concentration, and pore size distribution. Effective diffusivities for acetone at 65 ??C and 30-60 ppmv were measured using a chromatography method. The energy factor for surface diffusion was determined from comparison between the experimental and modeled effective diffusivities. The modeled effective diffusivities were used in a dispersive computational model to predict mass transfer zones of TCVs in fixed beds of ACFC under realistic conditions for industrial applications.

Exposure of engineered nanomaterials to plants: Insights into the physiological and biochemical responses-A review.

PubMed

Zuverza-Mena, Nubia; Martínez-Fernández, Domingo; Du, Wenchao; Hernandez-Viezcas, Jose A; Bonilla-Bird, Nestor; López-Moreno, Martha L; Komárek, Michael; Peralta-Videa, Jose R; Gardea-Torresdey, Jorge L

2017-01-01

Recent investigations show that carbon-based and metal-based engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), components of consumer goods and agricultural products, have the potential to build up in sediments and biosolid-amended agricultural soils. In addition, reports indicate that both carbon-based and metal-based ENMs affect plants differently at the physiological, biochemical, nutritional, and genetic levels. The toxicity threshold is species-dependent and responses to ENMs are driven by a series of factors including the nanomaterial characteristics and environmental conditions. Effects on the growth, physiological and biochemical traits, production and food quality, among others, have been reported. However, a complete understanding of the dynamics of interactions between plants and ENMs is not clear enough yet. This review presents recent publications on the physiological and biochemical effects that commercial carbon-based and metal-based ENMs have in terrestrial plants. This document focuses on crop plants because of their relevance in human nutrition and health. We have summarized the mechanisms of interaction between plants and ENMs as well as identified gaps in knowledge for future investigations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Methane release from the southern Brazilian margin during the last glacial.

PubMed

Portilho-Ramos, R C; Cruz, A P S; Barbosa, C F; Rathburn, A E; Mulitza, S; Venancio, I M; Schwenk, T; Rühlemann, C; Vidal, L; Chiessi, C M; Silveira, C S

2018-04-13

Seafloor methane release can significantly affect the global carbon cycle and climate. Appreciable quantities of methane are stored in continental margin sediments as shallow gas and hydrate deposits, and changes in pressure, temperature and/or bottom-currents can liberate significant amounts of this greenhouse gas. Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of marine methane deposits and their relationships to environmental change are critical for assessing past and future carbon cycle and climate change. Here we present foraminiferal stable carbon isotope and sediment mineralogy records suggesting for the first time that seafloor methane release occurred along the southern Brazilian margin during the last glacial period (40-20 cal ka BP). Our results show that shallow gas deposits on the southern Brazilian margin responded to glacial-interglacial paleoceanographic changes releasing methane due to the synergy of sea level lowstand, warmer bottom waters and vigorous bottom currents during the last glacial period. High sea level during the Holocene resulted in an upslope shift of the Brazil Current, cooling the bottom waters and reducing bottom current strength, reducing methane emissions from the southern Brazilian margin.

A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Park, Seon Ki

2011-11-01

The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson's rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.

Cross-continental comparison of the functional composition and carbon allocation of two altitudinal forest transects in Ecuador and Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbeeck, Hans; Bauters, Marijn; Bruneel, Stijn; Demol, Miro; Taveirne, Cys; Van Der Heyden, Dries; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Cizungu, Landry; Boeckx, Pascal

2017-04-01

Tropical forests are key actors in the global carbon cycle. Predicting future responses of these forests to global change is challenging, but important for global climate models. However, our current understanding of such responses is limited, due to the complexity of forest ecosystems and the slow dynamics that inherently form these systems. Our understanding of ecosystem ecology and functioning could greatly benefit from experimental setups including strong environmental gradients in the tropics, as found on altitudinal transects. We setup two such transects in both South-America and Central Africa, focussing on shifts in carbon allocation, forest structure, nutrient cycling and functional composition. The Ecuadorian transect has 16 plots (40 by 40 m) and ranges from 400 to 3000 m.a.s.l., and the Rwandan transect has 20 plots (40 by 40 m) from 1500 to 3000 m.a.s.l. All plots were inventoried and canopy, litter and soil were extensively sampled. By a cross-continental comparison of both transects, we will gain insight in how different or alike both tropical forests biomes are in their responses, and how universal the observed altitudinal adaption mechanisms are. This could provide us with vital information of the ecological responses of both biomes to future global change scenarios. Additionally, comparison of nutrient shifts and trait-based functional composition allows us to compare the biogeochemical cycles of African and South-American tropical forests.

Carbon Cycle 2.0: Bill Collins: A future without CC2.0

ScienceCinema

Bill Collins

2017-12-09

Bill Collins speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 1, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

Carbon Cycle 2.0: Bill Collins: A future without CC2.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bill Collins

2010-02-09

Bill Collins speaks at the Carbon Cycle 2.0 kick-off symposium Feb. 1, 2010. We emit more carbon into the atmosphere than natural processes are able to remove - an imbalance with negative consequences. Carbon Cycle 2.0 is a Berkeley Lab initiative to provide the science needed to restore this balance by integrating the Labs diverse research activities and delivering creative solutions toward a carbon-neutral energy future. http://carboncycle2.lbl.gov/

Carbon and Earth’s future climate on This Week @NASA – November 13, 2015

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-11-13

New observations from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission is providing insight into how Earth is responding to rising levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, and what this means for our future climate. Earth’s land and ocean currently absorb about half of all carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, but it’s uncertain whether the planet can keep this up in the future. Later this month, a United Nations climate meeting in Paris will focus on setting limits on future levels of human-produced carbon emissions. OCO-2 is NASA’s first satellite dedicated to measuring carbon dioxide. Also, New Horizons science update, NASA at Bay Area Science Festival, Anniversary of first spacecraft landing on a comet, Cygnus being prepared for launch, and Girls Rising in Math and Science!

Coagulation of linear carbon molecules into nanoparticles: a molecular dynamics study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, Yasutaka; Wakabayashi, Tomonari

2004-04-01

Using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, the coagulation of carbon chain molecules that occurs on the subliming surface of a carbon-containing rare-gas matrix is investigated. Intermolecular connections with dangling bonds enhance the sublimation of the matrix and that results in the emission of a layer of nested carbon chains into vacuum at a velocity about 100 m/s. The following conversion from carbon sp- to more stable sp 2-type bonds heats up the carbon material above 3000 K. During this process, the nested carbon layer self-anneals via a graphitic mono-layer into a conjunct array of particles with a dimension about 10 nm.

Molecular DYNAmics of Soil Organic carbon (DYNAMOS ): a project focusing on soils and carbon through data and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendez-Millan, Mercedes

2010-05-01

Here we present the first results of the DynaMOS project whose main issue is the build-up of a new generation of soil carbon model. The modeling will describe together soil organic geochemistry and soil carbon dynamics in a generalized, quantitative representation. The carbon dynamics time scale envisaged here will cover the 1 to 1000 yr range and describe molecule behaviours (i.e.)carbohydrate, peptide, amino acid, lignin, lipids, their products of biodegradation and uncharacterized carbonaceous species of biological origin. Three main characteristics define DYNAMOS model originalities: it will consider organic matter at the molecular scale, integrate back to global scale and account for component vertical movements. In a first step, specific data acquisition will concern the production, fate and age of carbon of individual organic compounds. Dynamic parameters will be acquired by compound-specific carbon isotope analysis of both 13C and 14C, by GC/C/IR-MS and AMS. Sites for data acquisition, model calibration and model validation will be chosen on the base of their isotopic history and environmental constraints: 13C natural labeling (with and without C3/C4 vegetation changes), 13C/15N-labelled litter application in both forest and cropland. They include some long-term experiments owned by the partners themselves plus a worldwide panel of sites. In a second step the depth distribution of organic species, isotopes and ages in soils (1D representation) will be modeled by coupling carbon dynamics and vertical movement. Besides the main objective of providing a robust soil carbon dynamics model, DYNAMOS will assess and model the alteration of the isotopic signature of molecules throughout decay and create a shared database of both already published and new data of compound specific information. Issues of the project will concern different scientific fields: global geochemical cycles by refining the description of the terrestrial carbon cycle and entering the chemical composition of organic matter in carbon models; forestry or agriculture by offering a chemical frame for the management of crop residues or organic wastes; geochronology, paleoecology and paleo climatology by modeling the alteration of isotope signature and the preservation of terrestrial biomarkers.

Influence of climate change factors on carbon dynamics in northern forested peatlands

Treesearch

C.C Trettin; R. Laiho; K. Minkkinen; J. Laine

2005-01-01

Peatlands are carbon-accumulating wetland ecosystems, developed through an imbalance among organic matter production and decomposition processes. Soil saturation is the principal cause of anoxic conditions that constrain organic matter decay. Accordingly, changes in the hydrologic regime will affect the carbon (C) dynamics in forested peatlands. Our objective is to...

Modeling fire-induced smoke spread and carbon monoxide transportation in a long channel: Fire Dynamics Simulator comparisons with measured data.

PubMed

Hu, L H; Fong, N K; Yang, L Z; Chow, W K; Li, Y Z; Huo, R

2007-02-09

Smoke and toxic gases, such as carbon monoxide, are the most fatal factors in fires. This paper models fire-induced smoke spread and carbon monoxide transportation in an 88m long channel by Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) with large eddy simulation (LES). FDS is now a well-founded fire dynamics computational fluid dynamic (CFD) program, which was developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Two full scale experiments with fire sizes of 0.75 and 1.6MW were conducted in this channel to validate the program. The spread of the fire-induced smoke flow together with the smoke temperature distribution along the channel, and the carbon monoxide concentration at an assigned position were measured. The FDS simulation results were compared with experimental data with fairly good agreement demonstrated. The validation work is then extended to numerically study the carbon monoxide concentration distribution, both vertically and longitudinally, in this long channel. Results showed that carbon monoxide concentration increase linearly with the height above the floor and decreases exponentially with the distance away from the fire source.

Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadburn, Sarah E.; Krinner, Gerhard; Porada, Philipp; Bartsch, Annett; Beer, Christian; Belelli Marchesini, Luca; Boike, Julia; Ekici, Altug; Elberling, Bo; Friborg, Thomas; Hugelius, Gustaf; Johansson, Margareta; Kuhry, Peter; Kutzbach, Lars; Langer, Moritz; Lund, Magnus; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Peng, Shushi; Van Huissteden, Ko; Wang, Tao; Westermann, Sebastian; Zhu, Dan; Burke, Eleanor J.

2017-11-01

It is important that climate models can accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Arctic due to the large and potentially labile carbon stocks found in permafrost-affected environments, which can lead to a positive climate feedback, along with the possibility of future carbon sinks from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France). We use a site-level approach in which comprehensive, high-frequency datasets allow us to disentangle the importance of different processes. The models have improved physical permafrost processes and there is a reasonable correspondence between the simulated and measured physical variables, including soil temperature, soil moisture and snow. We show that if the models simulate the correct leaf area index (LAI), the standard C3 photosynthesis schemes produce the correct order of magnitude of carbon fluxes. Therefore, simulating the correct LAI is one of the first priorities. LAI depends quite strongly on climatic variables alone, as we see by the fact that the dynamic vegetation model can simulate most of the differences in LAI between sites, based almost entirely on climate inputs. However, we also identify an influence from nutrient limitation as the LAI becomes too large at some of the more nutrient-limited sites. We conclude that including moss as well as vascular plants is of primary importance to the carbon budget, as moss contributes a large fraction to the seasonal CO2 flux in nutrient-limited conditions. Moss photosynthetic activity can be strongly influenced by the moisture content of moss, and the carbon uptake can be significantly different from vascular plants with a similar LAI. The soil carbon stocks depend strongly on the rate of input of carbon from the vegetation to the soil, and our analysis suggests that an improved simulation of photosynthesis would also lead to an improved simulation of soil carbon stocks. However, the stocks are also influenced by soil carbon burial (e.g. through cryoturbation) and the rate of heterotrophic respiration, which depends on the soil physical state. More detailed below-ground measurements are needed to fully evaluate biological and physical soil processes. Furthermore, even if these processes are well modelled, the soil carbon profiles cannot resemble peat layers as peat accumulation processes are not represented in the models. Thus, we identify three priority areas for model development: (1) dynamic vegetation including (a) climate and (b) nutrient limitation effects; (2) adding moss as a plant functional type; and an (3) improved vertical profile of soil carbon including peat processes.

Tropical forest response to a drier future: Measurement and modeling of soil organic matter stocks and turnover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finstad, K. M.; Campbell, A.; Pett-Ridge, J.; Zhang, N.; McFarlane, K. J.

2017-12-01

Tropical forests account for over 50% of the global terrestrial carbon sink and 29% of global soil carbon, but the stability of carbon in these ecosystems under a changing climate is unknown. Recent work suggests moisture may be more important than temperature in driving soil carbon storage and emissions in the tropics. However, data on belowground carbon cycling in the tropics is sparse, and the role of moisture on soil carbon dynamics is underrepresented in current land surface models limiting our ability to extrapolate from field experiments to the entire region. We measured radiocarbon (14C) and calculated turnover rates of organic matter from 37 soil profiles from the Neotropics including sites in Mexico, Brazil, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, and Peru. Our sites represent a large range of moisture, spanning 710 to 4200 mm of mean annual precipitation, and include Andisols, Oxisols, Inceptisols, and Ultisols. We found a large range in soil 14C profiles between sites, and in some locations, we also found a large spatial variation within a site. We compared measured soil C stocks and 14C profiles to data generated from the Community Land Model (CLM) v.4.5 and have begun to generate data from the ACME Land Model (ALM) v.1. We found that the CLM consistently overestimated carbon stocks and the mean age of soil carbon at the surface (upper 50 cm), and underestimated the mean age of deep soil carbon. Additionally, the CLM did not capture the variation in 14C and C stock profiles that exists between and within the sites across the Neotropics. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-736060.

Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance.

PubMed

Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Peckham, Scott D; Ahl, Douglas E; Gower, Stith T

2007-11-01

Changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and fire regimes have been occurring for decades in the global boreal forest, with future climate change likely to increase fire frequency--the primary disturbance agent in most boreal forests. Previous attempts to assess quantitatively the effect of changing environmental conditions on the net boreal forest carbon balance have not taken into account the competition between different vegetation types on a large scale. Here we use a process model with three competing vascular and non-vascular vegetation types to examine the effects of climate, carbon dioxide concentrations and fire disturbance on net biome production, net primary production and vegetation dominance in 100 Mha of Canadian boreal forest. We find that the carbon balance of this region was driven by changes in fire disturbance from 1948 to 2005. Climate changes affected the variability, but not the mean, of the landscape carbon balance, with precipitation exerting a more significant effect than temperature. We show that more frequent and larger fires in the late twentieth century resulted in deciduous trees and mosses increasing production at the expense of coniferous trees. Our model did not however exhibit the increases in total forest net primary production that have been inferred from satellite data. We find that poor soil drainage decreased the variability of the landscape carbon balance, which suggests that increased climate and hydrological changes have the potential to affect disproportionately the carbon dynamics of these areas. Overall, we conclude that direct ecophysiological changes resulting from global climate change have not yet been felt in this large boreal region. Variations in the landscape carbon balance and vegetation dominance have so far been driven largely by increases in fire frequency.

Understanding and Projecting Climate and Human Impacts on Terrestrial-Coastal Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; Tian, H.; He, R.; Fennel, K.

2017-12-01

Changing climate and land use practices have the potential to dramatically alter coupled hydrologic-biogeochemical processes and associated movement of water, carbon and nutrients through various terrestrial reservoirs into rivers, estuaries, and coastal ocean waters. Consequences of climate- and land use-related changes will be particularly evident in large river basins and their associated coastal outflow regions. Here, we describe a NASA Carbon Monitoring System project that employs an integrated suite of models in conjunction with remotely sensed as well as targeted in situ observations with the objectives of describing processes controlling fluxes on land and their coupling to riverine, estuarine and ocean ecosystems. The nature of our approach, coupling models of terrestrial and ocean ecosystem dynamics and associated carbon processes, allows for assessment of how societal and human-related land use, land use change and forestry and climate-related change affect terrestrial carbon transport as well as export of materials through watersheds to the coastal margins. Our objectives include the following: 1) Provide representation of carbon processes in the terrestrial ecosystem to understand how changes in land use and climatic conditions influence the export of materials to the coastal ocean, 2) Couple the terrestrial exports of carbon, nutrients and freshwater to a coastal biogeochemical model and examine how different climate and land use scenarios influence fluxes across the land-ocean interface, and 3) Project future changes under different scenarios of climate and human impact, and support user needs related to carbon management and other activities (e.g., water quality, hypoxia, ocean acidification). This research is providing information that will contribute to determining an overall carbon balance in North America as well as describing and predicting how human- and climate-related changes impact coastal water quality including possible effects of coastal eutrophication and hypoxia.

Development of dynamic wheat crop model in ISAM and estimation of impacts of environmental factors on wheat production in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gahlot, S.; Lin, T. S.; Jain, A. K.; Baidya Roy, S.; Sehgal, V. K.; Dhakar, R.

2017-12-01

With changing environmental conditions, such as climate and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, questions about food security can be answered by modeling crops based on our understanding of the dynamic crop growth processes and interactions between the crops and their environment in the form of carbon, water and energy fluxes. These interactions and their effect on cropland ecosystems are non-linear because of the feedback mechanisms. Hence, process-based modelling approach can be used to conduct numerical experiments to derive insights into these processes and interactive feedbacks. In this study we have implemented dynamic crop growth processes for wheat into a data-modeling framework, Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), to estimate the impacts of different factors like CO2 fertilization, irrigation, nitrogen limitation and climate change on wheat in India. In specific, we have implemented wheat-specific phenology, C3 photosynthesis mechanism and phenology-specific carbon allocation schemes for assimilated carbon to leaf, stem, root and grain pools. Crop growth limiting stress factors like nutrients, temperature and light have been included. The impact of high temperatures on leaf senescence, anthesis and grain filling has been modeled and found to be causing significant reduction in yield in the recent years. Field data from an experimental wheat site located at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), New Delhi, India has been collected for aboveground biomass and leaf area index (LAI) for two growing seasons 2014-15 and 2015-16. This data has been used to study the phenology, growing season length, thermal requirements and growth stages of wheat. Using the field data, the dynamic model for wheat has been evaluated for the site level seasonal variability in leaf area index (LAI) and aboveground biomass. The variations in carbon, water and energy fluxes, plant height and rooting depth have been analyzed on the site level. Model experiments have been performed to calculate the yield for wheat for India for the historical years. In order to identify wheat production regions in India that are prone to one or multiple stresses in years to come, model experiments have been performed based on future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5.

Nonstructural leaf carbohydrates dynamics of Pinus edulis during drought-induced tree mortality reveal role for carbon metabolism in mortality mechanism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Henry D.; Germino, Matthew J.; Breshears, David D.; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Zou, Chris B.; Huxman, Travis E.

2013-01-01

* Reduced foliar NSC during lethal drought indicates a carbon metabolism role in mortality mechanism. Although carbohydrates were not completely exhausted at mortality, temperature differences in starch accumulation timing suggest that carbon metabolism changes are associated with time to death. Drought mortality appears to be related to temperature-dependent carbon dynamics concurrent with increasing hydraulic stress in P. edulis and potentially other similar species.

Molecular simulation study of dynamical properties of room temperature ionic liquids with carbon pieces

DOE PAGES

Feng, Guang; Zhao, Wei; Cummings, Peter T.; ...

2016-03-29

Room temperature ionic liquids (RTILs) with dispersed carbon pieces exhibit distinctive physiochemical properties. In order to explore the molecular mechanism, RTILs/carbon pieces mixture we investigated it by molecular dynamics (MD) simulation in this work. Rigid and flexible carbon pieces in the form of graphene with different thicknesses and carbon nanotubes in different sizes were dispersed in a representative RTIL 1-butyl-3-methyl-imidazolium dicyanamide ([Bmim][DCA]). Our study demonstrated that the diffusion coefficients of RTILs in the presence of flexible carbons are similar to those of bulk RTILs at varying temperatures, which is in contrast to the decreased diffusion of RTILs in the presencemore » of rigid carbons. In addition, interfacial ion number density at rigid carbon surfaces was higher than that at flexible ones, which is correlated with the accessible external surface area of carbon pieces. The life time of cation-anion pair in the presence of carbon pieces also exhibited a dependence on carbon flexibility. RTILs with dispersed rigid carbon pieces showed longer ion pair life time than those with flexible ones, in consistence with the observation in diffusion coefficients. Furthermore, this work highlights the necessity of including the carbon flexibility when performing MD simulation of RTILs in the presence of dispersed carbon pieces in order to obtain the reliable dynamical and interfacial structural properties.« less

Linking Carbon Flux Dynamics and Soil Structure in Dryland Soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeCarlo, K. F.; Caylor, K. K.

2016-12-01

Biological sources in the form of microbes and plants play a fundamental role in determining the magnitude of carbon flux. However, the geophysical structure of the soil (which the carbon must pass through before entering the atmosphere) often serves as a constraining entity, which has the potential to serve as instigators or mitigators of those carbon and hydrologic flux processes. We characterized soil carbon dynamics in three dryland soil systems: bioturbated soils, biocompacted soils, and undisturbed soils. Carbon fluxes were characterized using a closed-system respiration chamber, with CO2 concentration differences measured using an infrared gas analyzer (IRGA). Structure of the soil systems, with a focus on the macro-crack structure, were characterized using a combined resin-casting/X-ray imaging technique. Results show fundamental differences in carbon dynamics between the different soil systems/structures: control soils have gaussian distributions of carbon flux that decrease with progressive drying of the soil, while biocompacted soils exhibit exponentially distributed fluxes that do not regularly decrease with increased drying of the soil. Bioturbated soils also exhibit an exponential distribution of carbon flux, though at a much higher magnitude. These differences are evaluated in the context of the underlying soil structure: while the control soils exhibit a shallow and narrow crack structure, the biocompacted soils exhibit a "systematic" crack network with moderate cracking intensity and large depth. The deep crack networks of the biocompacted soils may serve to physically enhance an otherwise weak source of carbon via advection and/or convection, inducing fluxes that are equal or greater than an otherwise carbon-rich soil. The bioturbated soils exhibit a "surficial" crack network that is shallow but extensive, but additionally have deep holes known to convectively vent carbon, which may explain their periodically large carbon fluxes. Our results suggest that variability in soil structure, as well as carbon source, plays a fundamental role in carbon flux dynamics, and the importance of evaluating biological carbon source and geophysical soil structure in a dryland environment.

Coastal Carbon Dynamics as a New Chapter in SOCCR2: Tidal Wetlands and Estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Windham-Myers, L.; Megonigal, P.; Cai, W. J.; Hopkinson, C.; Wang, A. Z.; Andersson, A. J.; Hinson, A.; Lagomasino, D.; Peteet, D. M.; Giri, C. P.; Howard, J.; Tang, J.; Crosswell, J.; Martin Hernandez-Ayon, J. M.; Dunton, K. H.; Kroeger, K. D.; Paulsen, M. L.; Allison, M. A.; Siedlecki, S. A.; Alin, S. R.; Hu, X.; Tzortziou, M.; Najjar, R.; Schafer, K. V.; Watson, E.; Pidgeon, E.

2016-12-01

Estuaries and tidal wetlands have been identified as distinct landscape elements for carbon cycling, worthy of a chapter in the pending State of the Carbon Cycle Report - version 2. Despite relatively small aerial coverage compared to other subsystems, tidal wetlands and estuaries have the greatest influence on carbon dynamics of any coastal ocean subsystem. As conduits that filter all material passing between land and the sea, they also exhibit the highest transfer rates of CO2 with the atmosphere of any of the coastal ocean subsystems. Carbon dynamics in estuaries and wetlands are constantly changing, reflecting geomorphic and ecological responses to long and short-term perturbations in external drivers such as sea-level rise, climate change, nutrient loading and land-use change. The influence of these drivers are profound in coastal systems, often more so than in inland wetlands or open ocean environments, and thus require distinct attention to patterns and processes associated with coastal ecosystem functioning, including carbon sequestration services in tidal wetland soils. This new chapter focusses on data sources available in North America to: (1) assess the current state of carbon stocks and fluxes in coastal settings, (2) document understanding of drivers associated with significant fluxes and stocks, and (3) synthesize carbon dynamics from a global context to regional perspectives (East, West, Gulf and high-latitude coastlines). Insights from remote sensing, in situ field data, and numerical models have advanced our ability to monitor and project carbon cycling in this dynamic and narrow fringe at the land-ocean interface. This synthetic chapter will address how these advances can help in decision making, as well as address remaining gaps in our knowledge and monitoring capabilities for these diverse and productive habitats.

Alterations in microbial community composition with increasing fCO2: a mesocosm study in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crawfurd, Katharine J.; Alvarez-Fernandez, Santiago; Mojica, Kristina D. A.; Riebesell, Ulf; Brussaard, Corina P. D.

2017-08-01

Ocean acidification resulting from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) by the ocean is considered a major threat to marine ecosystems. Here we examined the effects of ocean acidification on microbial community dynamics in the eastern Baltic Sea during the summer of 2012 when inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus were strongly depleted. Large-volume in situ mesocosms were employed to mimic present, future and far future CO2 scenarios. All six groups of phytoplankton enumerated by flow cytometry ( < 20 µm cell diameter) showed distinct trends in net growth and abundance with CO2 enrichment. The picoeukaryotic phytoplankton groups Pico-I and Pico-II displayed enhanced abundances, whilst Pico-III, Synechococcus and the nanoeukaryotic phytoplankton groups were negatively affected by elevated fugacity of CO2 (fCO2). Specifically, the numerically dominant eukaryote, Pico-I, demonstrated increases in gross growth rate with increasing fCO2 sufficient to double its abundance. The dynamics of the prokaryote community closely followed trends in total algal biomass despite differential effects of fCO2 on algal groups. Similarly, viral abundances corresponded to prokaryotic host population dynamics. Viral lysis and grazing were both important in controlling microbial abundances. Overall our results point to a shift, with increasing fCO2, towards a more regenerative system with production dominated by small picoeukaryotic phytoplankton.

The carbon isotopic composition of ecosystem breath

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehleringer, J.

2008-05-01

At the global scale, there are repeatable annual fluctuations in the concentration and isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide, sometimes referred to as the "breathing of the planet". Vegetation components within ecosystems fix carbon dioxide through photosynthesis into stable organic compounds; simultaneously both vegetation and heterotrophic components of the ecosystem release previously fixed carbon as respiration. These two-way fluxes influencing carbon dioxide exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere impact both the concentration and isotopic composition of carbon dioxide within the convective boundary layer. Over space, the compounding effects of gas exchange activities from ecosystems become reflected in both regional and global changes in the concentration and isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide. When these two parameters are plotted against each other, there are significant linear relationships between the carbon isotopic composition and inverse concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. At the ecosystem scale, these "Keeling plots" intercepts of C3-dominated ecosystems describe the carbon isotope ratio of biospheric gas exchange. Using Farquhar's model, these carbon isotope values can be translated into quantitative measures of the drought-dependent control of photosynthesis by stomata as water availability changes through time. This approach is useful in aggregating the influences of drought across regional landscapes as it provides a quantitative measure of stomatal influence on photosynthetic gas exchange at the ecosystem-to-region scales. Multi-year analyses of the drought-dependent trends across terrestrial ecosystems show a repeated pattern with water stress in all but one C3-ecosystem type. Ecosystems that are dominated by ring-porous trees appear not to exhibit a dynamic stomatal response to water stress and therefore, there is little dependence of the carbon isotope ratio of gas exchange on site water balance. The mechanistic basis for this pattern is defined; the implications of climate change on ring-porous versus diffuse-porous vegetation and therefore on future atmospheric carbon dioxide isotope-concentration patterns is discussed.

Measuring the effect of fuel treatments on forest carbon using landscape risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ager, A. A.; Finney, M. A.; McMahan, A.; Cathcart, J.

2010-12-01

Wildfire simulation modelling was used to examine whether fuel reduction treatments can potentially reduce future wildfire emissions and provide carbon benefits. In contrast to previous reports, the current study modelled landscape scale effects of fuel treatments on fire spread and intensity, and used a probabilistic framework to quantify wildfire effects on carbon pools to account for stochastic wildfire occurrence. The study area was a 68 474 ha watershed located on the Fremont-Winema National Forest in southeastern Oregon, USA. Fuel reduction treatments were simulated on 10% of the watershed (19% of federal forestland). We simulated 30 000 wildfires with random ignition locations under both treated and untreated landscapes to estimate the change in burn probability by flame length class resulting from the treatments. Carbon loss functions were then calculated with the Forest Vegetation Simulator for each stand in the study area to quantify change in carbon as a function of flame length. We then calculated the expected change in carbon from a random ignition and wildfire as the sum of the product of the carbon loss and the burn probabilities by flame length class. The expected carbon difference between the non-treatment and treatment scenarios was then calculated to quantify the effect of fuel treatments. Overall, the results show that the carbon loss from implementing fuel reduction treatments exceeded the expected carbon benefit associated with lowered burn probabilities and reduced fire severity on the treated landscape. Thus, fuel management activities resulted in an expected net loss of carbon immediately after treatment. However, the findings represent a point in time estimate (wildfire immediately after treatments), and a temporal analysis with a probabilistic framework used here is needed to model carbon dynamics over the life cycle of the fuel treatments. Of particular importance is the long-term balance between emissions from the decay of dead trees killed by fire and carbon sequestration by forest regeneration following wildfire.

Structure, dynamics and stability of water/scCO2/mineral interfaces from ab initio molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Lee, Mal-Soon; Peter McGrail, B; Rousseau, Roger; Glezakou, Vassiliki-Alexandra

2015-10-12

The boundary layer at solid-liquid interfaces is a unique reaction environment that poses significant scientific challenges to characterize and understand by experimentation alone. Using ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) methods, we report on the structure and dynamics of boundary layer formation, cation mobilization and carbonation under geologic carbon sequestration scenarios (T = 323 K and P = 90 bar) on a prototypical anorthite (001) surface. At low coverage, water film formation is enthalpically favored, but entropically hindered. Simulated adsorption isotherms show that a water monolayer will form even at the low water concentrations of water-saturated scCO2. Carbonation reactions readily occur at electron-rich terminal Oxygen sites adjacent to cation vacancies that readily form in the presence of a water monolayer. These results point to a carbonation mechanism that does not require prior carbonic acid formation in the bulk liquid. This work also highlights the modern capabilities of theoretical methods to address structure and reactivity at interfaces of high chemical complexity.

Technical Note: Linking climate change and downed woody debris decomposition across forests of the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Matthew B.; Woodall, Christopher W.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Fraver, Shawn; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystems play a critical role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Forest carbon (C) is stored through photosynthesis and released via decomposition and combustion. Relative to C fixation in biomass, much less is known about C depletion through decomposition of woody debris, particularly under a changing climate. It is assumed that the increased temperatures and longer growing seasons associated with projected climate change will increase the decomposition rates (i.e., more rapid C cycling) of downed woody debris (DWD); however, the magnitude of this increase has not been previously addressed. Using DWD measurements collected from a national forest inventory of the eastern United States, we show that the residence time of DWD may decrease (i.e., more rapid decomposition) by as much as 13% over the next 200 years, depending on various future climate change scenarios and forest types. Although existing dynamic global vegetation models account for the decomposition process, they typically do not include the effect of a changing climate on DWD decomposition rates. We expect that an increased understanding of decomposition rates, as presented in this current work, will be needed to adequately quantify the fate of woody detritus in future forests. Furthermore, we hope these results will lead to improved models that incorporate climate change scenarios for depicting future dead wood dynamics in addition to a traditional emphasis on live-tree demographics.

Stream carbon dynamics in low-gradient headwaters of a forested watershed

Treesearch

April Bryant-Mason; Y. Jun Xu; Johnny M. Grace

2013-01-01

Headwater streams drain more than 70 percent of the total watershed area in the United States. Understanding of carbon dynamics in the headwater systems is of particular relevance for developing best silvicultural practices to reduce carbon export. This study was conducted in a low-gradient, predominantly forested watershed located in the Gulf Coastal Plain region, to...

Wildfire and drought dynamics destabilize carbon stores of fire-suppressed forests

Treesearch

J. Mason Earles; Malcolm P. North; Matthew D. Hurteau

2014-01-01

Widespread fire suppression and thinning have altered the structure and composition of many forests in the western United States, making them more susceptible to the synergy of large-scale drought and fire events. We examine how these changes affect carbon storage and stability compared to historic fire-adapted conditions. We modeled carbon dynamics under possible...

Divergent carbon dynamics under climate change in forests with diverse soils, tree species, and land use histories

Treesearch

Robert M. Scheller; Alec M. Kretchun; Steve Van Tuyl; Kenneth L. Clark; Melissa S. Lucash; John Hom

2012-01-01

Accounting for both climate change and natural disturbances—which typically result in greenhouse gas emissions—is necessary to begin managing forest carbon sequestration. Gaining a complete understanding of forest carbon dynamics is, however, challenging in systems characterized by historic over-utilization, diverse soils and tree species, and...

Evaluating the remote sensing and inventory-based estimation of biomass in the western Carpathians

Treesearch

Magdalena Main-Knorn; Gretchen G. Moisen; Sean P. Healey; William S. Keeton; Elizabeth A. Freeman; Patrick Hostert

2011-01-01

Understanding the potential of forest ecosystems as global carbon sinks requires a thorough knowledge of forest carbon dynamics, including both sequestration and fluxes among multiple pools. The accurate quantification of biomass is important to better understand forest productivity and carbon cycling dynamics. Stand-based inventories (SBIs) are widely used for...

Monitoring coniferous forest biomass change using a Landsat trajectory-based approach

Treesearch

Magdalena Main-Knorn; Warren B. Cohen; Robert E. Kennedy; Wojciech Grodzki; Dirk Pflugmacher; Patrick Griffiths; Patrick Hostert

2013-01-01

Forest biomass is a major store of carbon and thus plays an important role in the regional and global carbon cycle. Accurate forest carbon sequestration assessment requires estimation of both forest biomass and forest biomass dynamics over time. Forest dynamics are characterized by disturbances and recovery, key processes affecting site productivity and the forest...

Boreal soil carbon dynamics under a changing climate: a model inversion approach

Treesearch

Zhaosheng Fan; Jason C. Neff; Jennifer W. Harden; Kimberly P. Wickland

2008-01-01

Several fundamental but important factors controlling the feedback of boreal organic carbon (OC) to climate change were examined using a mechanistic model of soil OC dynamics, including the combined effects of temperature and moisture on the decomposition of OC and the factors controlling carbon quality and decomposition with depth. To estimate decomposition rates and...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mamontov, Eugene; O'Neil, Hugh

In this paper, we have studied microscopic dynamics of a protein in carbon disulfide, a non-glass forming solvent, down to its freezing temperature of ca. 160 K. We have utilized quasielastic neutron scattering. A comparison of lysozyme hydrated with water and dissolved in carbon disulfide reveals a stark difference in the temperature dependence of the protein's microscopic relaxation dynamics induced by the solvent. In the case of hydration water, the common protein glass-forming solvent, the protein relaxation slows down in response to a large increase in the water viscosity on cooling down, exhibiting a well-known protein dynamical transition. The dynamicalmore » transition disappears in non-glass forming carbon disulfide, whose viscosity remains a weak function of temperature all the way down to freezing at just below 160 K. The microscopic relaxation dynamics of lysozyme dissolved in carbon disulfide is sustained down to the freezing temperature of its solvent at a rate similar to that measured at ambient temperature. Finally, our results demonstrate that protein dynamical transition is not merely solvent-assisted, but rather solvent-induced, or, more precisely, is a reflection of the temperature dependence of the solvent's glass-forming dynamics.« less

Insights into soil carbon dynamics across climatic and geologic gradients from temporally-resolved radiocarbon measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Voort, T. S.; Hagedorn, F.; Mannu, U.; Walthert, L.; McIntyre, C.; Eglinton, T. I.

2016-12-01

Soil carbon constitutes the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon, and therefore quantifying soil organic matter dynamics (carbon turnover, stocks and fluxes) across spatial gradients is essential for an understanding of the carbon cycle and the impacts of global change. In particular, links between soil carbon dynamics and different climatic and compositional factors remains poorly understood. Radiocarbon constitutes a powerful tool for unraveling soil carbon dynamics. Temporally-resolved radiocarbon measurements, which take advantage of "bomb-radiocarbon"-driven changes in atmospheric 14C, enable further constraints to be placed on C turnover times. These in turn can yield more precise flux estimates for both upper and deeper soil horizons. This project combines bulk radiocarbon measurements on a suite of soil profiles spanning strong climatic (MAT 1.3-9.2°C, MAP 600 to 2100 mm m-2y-1) and geologic gradients with a more in-depth approach for a subset of locations. For this subset, temporal and carbon-fraction specific radiocarbon data has been acquired for both topsoil and deeper soils. These well-studied sites are part of the Long-Term Forest Ecosystem Research (LWF) program of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape research (WSL). Resulting temporally-resolved turnover estimates are coupled to carbon stocks, fluxes across this wide range of forest ecosystems and are examined in the context of environmental drivers (temperature, precipitation, primary production and soil moisture) as well as composition (sand, silt and clay content). Statistical analysis on the region-scale - correlating radiocarbon signature with climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, primary production and elevation - indicates that composition rather than climate is a key driver of ­­Δ14C signatures. Estimates of carbon turnover, stocks and fluxes derived from temporally-resolved measurements highlight the pivotal role of soil moisture as a key driver of soil carbon turnover and associated fluxes. Overall, this study has afforded a uniquely comprehensive dataset that improves our understanding of controls on carbon dynamics across spatial and temporal scales, as well as the pool-specific and long-term trends in soil carbon (de)stabilization and vulnerability.

Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth: a multivariate and causality analysis for Ghana, 1971-2013.

PubMed

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2016-07-01

In this study, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth in Ghana was investigated from 1971 to 2013 by comparing the vector error correction model (VECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Prior to testing for Granger causality based on VECM, the study tested for unit roots, Johansen's multivariate co-integration and performed a variance decomposition analysis using Cholesky's technique. Evidence from the variance decomposition shows that 21 % of future shocks in carbon dioxide emissions are due to fluctuations in energy use, 8 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in GDP, and 6 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in population. There was evidence of bidirectional causality running from energy use to GDP and a unidirectional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy use, carbon dioxide emissions to GDP, carbon dioxide emissions to population, and population to energy use. Evidence from the long-run elasticities shows that a 1 % increase in population in Ghana will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.72 %. There was evidence of short-run equilibrium relationship running from energy use to carbon dioxide emissions and GDP to carbon dioxide emissions. As a policy implication, the addition of renewable energy and clean energy technologies into Ghana's energy mix can help mitigate climate change and its impact in the future.

Microbial community dynamics in the forefield of glaciers.

PubMed

Bradley, James A; Singarayer, Joy S; Anesio, Alexandre M

2014-11-22

Retreating ice fronts (as a result of a warming climate) expose large expanses of deglaciated forefield, which become colonized by microbes and plants. There has been increasing interest in characterizing the biogeochemical development of these ecosystems using a chronosequence approach. Prior to the establishment of plants, microbes use autochthonously produced and allochthonously delivered nutrients for growth. The microbial community composition is largely made up of heterotrophic microbes (both bacteria and fungi), autotrophic microbes and nitrogen-fixing diazotrophs. Microbial activity is thought to be responsible for the initial build-up of labile nutrient pools, facilitating the growth of higher order plant life in developed soils. However, it is unclear to what extent these ecosystems rely on external sources of nutrients such as ancient carbon pools and periodic nitrogen deposition. Furthermore, the seasonal variation of chronosequence dynamics and the effect of winter are largely unexplored. Modelling this ecosystem will provide a quantitative evaluation of the key processes and could guide the focus of future research. Year-round datasets combined with novel metagenomic techniques will help answer some of the pressing questions in this relatively new but rapidly expanding field, which is of growing interest in the context of future large-scale ice retreat.

CO2 studies remain key to understanding a future world.

PubMed

Becklin, Katie M; Walker, S Michael; Way, Danielle A; Ward, Joy K

2017-04-01

Contents 34 I. 34 II. 36 III. 37 IV. 37 V. 38 38 References 38 SUMMARY: Characterizing plant responses to past, present and future changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) is critical for understanding and predicting the consequences of global change over evolutionary and ecological timescales. Previous CO 2 studies have provided great insights into the effects of rising [CO 2 ] on leaf-level gas exchange, carbohydrate dynamics and plant growth. However, scaling CO 2 effects across biological levels, especially in field settings, has proved challenging. Moreover, many questions remain about the fundamental molecular mechanisms driving plant responses to [CO 2 ] and other global change factors. Here we discuss three examples of topics in which significant questions in CO 2 research remain unresolved: (1) mechanisms of CO 2 effects on plant developmental transitions; (2) implications of rising [CO 2 ] for integrated plant-water dynamics and drought tolerance; and (3) CO 2 effects on symbiotic interactions and eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Addressing these and other key questions in CO 2 research will require collaborations across scientific disciplines and new approaches that link molecular mechanisms to complex physiological and ecological interactions across spatiotemporal scales. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Microbial community dynamics in the forefield of glaciers

PubMed Central

Bradley, James A.; Singarayer, Joy S.; Anesio, Alexandre M.

2014-01-01

Retreating ice fronts (as a result of a warming climate) expose large expanses of deglaciated forefield, which become colonized by microbes and plants. There has been increasing interest in characterizing the biogeochemical development of these ecosystems using a chronosequence approach. Prior to the establishment of plants, microbes use autochthonously produced and allochthonously delivered nutrients for growth. The microbial community composition is largely made up of heterotrophic microbes (both bacteria and fungi), autotrophic microbes and nitrogen-fixing diazotrophs. Microbial activity is thought to be responsible for the initial build-up of labile nutrient pools, facilitating the growth of higher order plant life in developed soils. However, it is unclear to what extent these ecosystems rely on external sources of nutrients such as ancient carbon pools and periodic nitrogen deposition. Furthermore, the seasonal variation of chronosequence dynamics and the effect of winter are largely unexplored. Modelling this ecosystem will provide a quantitative evaluation of the key processes and could guide the focus of future research. Year-round datasets combined with novel metagenomic techniques will help answer some of the pressing questions in this relatively new but rapidly expanding field, which is of growing interest in the context of future large-scale ice retreat. PMID:25274358

Exploring the limits of knowledge on boreal peatland development using a new model: the Holocene Peatland Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quillet, Anne; Garneau, Michelle; Frolking, Steve; Roulet, Nigel; Peng, Changhui

2010-05-01

The Holocene Peatland Model (HPM) (Frolking et al. 2009, Frolking et al. in prep.) is a recently developed tool integrating up-to-date knowledge on peatland dynamics that explores peatland development and carbon dynamics on a millennial timescale. HPM combines the water and carbon cycles with net primary production and peat decomposition and takes the multiple feedbacks into account. The model remains simple and few site-specific inputs are needed. HPM simulates the transient development of the peatland and delivers peat age, peat depth, peat composition, carbon accumulation and water table depth for each simulated year. Evaluating the ability of the model to reproduce peatland development can be achieved in several manners. Commonly one could choose to compare simulations results with observations from field data. However, we argue that the overall response of the model does not give much information about the value of the model design. Modelling of peatlands dynamics requires a lot of information regarding the behaviour of a peatland system within its environment (including allogenic changes in climate, hydrological conditions, nutrient availability or autogenic processes such as microtopographical effects). The actual state of knowledge does not cover all processes, interactions or feedbacks and a lot of peatland properties are neither well defined nor measured yet, so that estimates have been needed to build the model. The work presented here aims at analyzing the role of the model parameterization on the simulation results. To do so, a sensitivity analysis is performed with a Monte-Carlo analysis and with help of the GUI-HDMR software (Ziehn and Tomlin, 2009). This method ranks the parameters and combinations of them according to their influence on simulation results. The results will emphasize how the simulation is sensitive to the parameter values. First, the distribution of outputs gives insight into the possible responses of the simulation to HPM's assemblage of current knowledge. Second, the importance of some parameters on simulation results points out certain gaps in the current understanding of peatland dynamics. Thus, this study helps determine some avenues that should be explored in future in order to improve peatlands dynamics understanding. Frolking S, NT Roulet, A Quillet, E Tuittila, JL Bubier. 2009. Simulating long-term carbon and water dynamics in northern peatlands Eos Trans. AGU, 90(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract PP12B-05. Frolking S, NT Roulet, E Tuittila, JL Bubier, A Quillet. XXXX. A new model of Holocene peatland net primary production, decomposition, and peat accumulation. in prep. Ziehn T, AS Tomlin. 2009. GUI-HDMR - A solftware tool for global sensitivity analysis of complex models. Environmental Modelling & Software, 24, 775-785.

Carbon Impacts of Fire- and Bark Beetle-Caused Tree Mortality across the Western US using the Community Land Model (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meddens, A. J.; Hicke, J. A.; Edburg, S. L.; Lawrence, D. M.

2013-12-01

Wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks cause major forest disturbances in the western US, affecting ecosystem productivity and thereby impacting forest carbon cycling and future climate. Despite the large spatial extent of tree mortality, quantifying carbon flux dynamics following fires and bark beetles over larger areas is challenging because of forest heterogeneity, varying disturbance severities, and field observation limitations. The objective of our study is to estimate these dynamics across the western US using the Community Land Model (version CLM4.5-BGC). CLM4.5-BGC is a land ecosystem model that mechanistically represents the exchanges of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen with the atmosphere. The most recent iteration of the model has been expanded to include vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry and includes improved nitrogen cycle representations including nitrification and denitrification and biological fixation as well as improved canopy processes including photosynthesis. Prior to conducting simulations, we modified CLM4.5-BGC to include the effects of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on carbon and nitrogen stocks and fluxes. Once modified, we conducted paired simulations (with and without) fire- and bark beetle-caused tree mortality by using regional data sets of observed mortality as inputs. Bark beetle-caused tree mortality was prescribed from a data set derived from US Forest Service aerial surveys from 1997 to 2010. Annual tree mortality area was produced from observed tree mortality caused by bark beetles and was adjusted for underestimation. Fires were prescribed using the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) database from 1984 to 2010. Annual tree mortality area was produced from forest cover maps and inclusion of moderate- and high-severity burned areas. Simulations show that maximum yearly reduction of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) caused by bark beetles is approximately 20 Tg C for the western US. Fires cause similar reductions in NEP, although the temporal pattern is different. The reductions in NEP from these major disturbances are similar to the variation in NEP caused by climatic conditions. When less favorable climatic conditions and these disturbances are co-occurring, forests switch from a carbon sink to a carbon source across the western US. This work increases understanding of the role of natural disturbances in the forest carbon budget of the western US.

Microbial carbon pump and its significance for carbon sequestration in soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Chao

2017-04-01

Studies of the decomposition, transformation and stabilization of soil organic carbon have dramatically increased in recent years due to growing interest in studying the global carbon cycle as it pertains to climate change. While it is readily accepted that the magnitude of the organic carbon reservoir in soils depends upon microbial involvement because soil carbon dynamics are ultimately the consequence of microbial growth and activity, it remains largely unknown how these microbe-mediated processes lead to soil carbon stabilization. Here, two pathways, ex vivo modification and in vivo turnover, were defined to jointly explain soil carbon dynamics driven by microbial catabolism and/or anabolism. Accordingly, a conceptual framework consisting of the raised concept of the soil "microbial carbon pump" (MCP) was demonstrated to describe how microbes act as an active player in soil carbon storage. The hypothesis is that the long-term microbial assimilation process may facilitate the formation of a set of organic compounds that are stabilized (whether via protection by physical interactions or a reduction in activation energy due to chemical composition), ultimately leading to the sequestration of microbial-derived carbon in soils. The need for increased efforts was proposed to seek to inspire new studies that utilize the soil MCP as a conceptual guideline for improving mechanistic understandings of the contributions of soil carbon dynamics to the responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle under global change.

Nanocatalyst shape and composition during nucleation of single-walled carbon nanotubes

DOE PAGES

Gomez-Ballesteros, Jose L.; Burgos, Juan C.; Lin, Pin Ann; ...

2015-12-07

The dynamic evolution of nanocatalyst particle shape and carbon composition during the initial stages of single-walled carbon nanotube growth by chemical vapor deposition synthesis is investigated. Classical reactive and ab initio molecular dynamics simulations are used, along with environmental transmission electron microscope video imaging analyses. A clear migration of carbon is detected from the nanocatalyst/substrate interface, leading to a carbon gradient showing enrichment of the nanocatalyst layers in the immediate vicinity of the contact layer. However, as the metal nanocatalyst particle becomes saturated with carbon, a dynamic equilibrium is established, with carbon precipitating on the surface and nucleating a carbonmore » cap that is the precursor of nanotube growth. A carbon composition profile decreasing towards the nanoparticle top is clearly revealed by the computational and experimental results that show a negligible amount of carbon in the nanoparticle region in contact with the nucleating cap. The carbon composition profile inside the nanoparticle is accompanied by a well-defined shape evolution of the nanocatalyst driven by the various opposing forces acting upon it both from the substrate and from the nascent carbon nanostructure. In conclusion, this new understanding suggests that tuning the nanoparticle/substrate interaction would provide unique ways of controlling the nanotube synthesis.« less

Assessing Potential Future Carbon Dynamics with Climate Change and Fire Management in a Mountainous Landscape on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, R. S.

2010-12-01

Forests of the mountainous landscapes of the maritime Pacific Northwestern USA may have high carbon sequestration potential via their high productivity and moderate to infrequent fire regimes. With climate change, there may be shifts in incidence and severity of fire, especially in the drier areas of the region, via changes to forest productivity and hydrology, and consequent effects to C sequestration and forest structure. To explore this issue, I assessed potential effects of fire management (little fire suppression/wildland fire management/highly effective fire suppression) under two climate change scenarios on future C sequestration dynamics (amounts and spatial pattern) in Olympic National Park, WA, over a 500-year simulation period. I used the simulation platform FireBGCv2, which contains a mechanistic, individual tree succession model, a spatially explicit climate-based biophysical model that uses daily weather data, and a spatially explicit fire model incorporating ignition, spread, and effects on ecosystem components. C sequestration patterns varied over time and spatial and temporal patterns differed somewhat depending on the climate change scenario applied and the fire management methods employed. Under the more extreme climate change scenario with little fire suppression, fires were most frequent and severe and C sequestration decreased. General trends were similar under the more moderate climate change scenario, as compared to current climate, but spatial patterns differed. Both climate change scenarios under highly effective fire suppression showed about 50% of starting total C after the initial transition phase, whereas with 10% fire suppression both scenarios exhibited about 10% of starting amounts. Areas of the landscape that served as refugia for older forest under increasing frequency of high severity fire were also hotspots for C sequestration in a landscape experiencing increasing frequency of disturbance with climate change.

Influence of dynamic vegetation on carbon-nitrogen cycle feedback in the Community Land Model (CLM4)

DOE PAGES

Sakaguchi, K.; Zeng, X.; Leung, L. R.; ...

2016-12-21

Land carbon sensitivity to atmospheric CO 2 concentration (β L) and climate warming (γ L) is a crucial part of carbon-climate feedbacks in the earth system. Using the Community Land Model version 4 with a coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle, we examine whether the inclusion of a dynamic global vegetation model (CNDV) significantly changes the land carbon sensitivity from that obtained with prescribed vegetation cover (CN). For decadal timescale in the late twentieth century, β L is not substantially different between the two models but γ L of CNDV is stronger (more negative) than that of CN. The main reason for themore » difference in γL is not the concurrent change in vegetation cover driving the carbon dynamics, but rather the smaller nitrogen constraint on plant growth in CNDV compared with CN, which arises from the deviation of CNDV's near-equilibrium vegetation distribution from CN’s prescribed, historical land cover. The smaller nitrogen constraint makes the enhanced nitrogen mineralization with warming less effective in stimulating plant productivity to counter moisture stress in a warmer climate, leading to a more negative γ L. This represents a new indirect pathway that has not been identified for dynamic vegetation in the coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle to affect the terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks in the earth system.« less