Science.gov

Sample records for future climatic conditions

  1. Simulating Freshwater Availability under Future Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, F.; Zeng, N.; Motesharrei, S.; Gustafson, K. C.; Rivas, J.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.; Kalnay, E.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater availability is a key factor for regional development. Precipitation, evaporation, river inflow and outflow are the major terms in the estimate of regional water supply. In this study, we aim to obtain a realistic estimate for these variables from 1901 to 2100. First we calculated the ensemble mean precipitation using the 2011-2100 RCP4.5 output (re-sampled to half-degree spatial resolution) from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The projections are then combined with the half-degree 1901-2010 Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS3.2 dataset after bias correction. We then used the combined data to drive our UMD Earth System Model (ESM), in order to generate evaporation and runoff. We also developed a River-Routing Scheme based on the idea of Taikan Oki, as part of the ESM. It is capable of calculating river inflow and outflow for any region, driven by the gridded runoff output. River direction and slope information from Global Dominant River Tracing (DRT) dataset are included in our scheme. The effects of reservoirs/dams are parameterized based on a few simple factors such as soil moisture, population density and geographic regions. Simulated river flow is validated with river gauge measurements for the world's major rivers. We have applied our river flow calculation to two data-rich watersheds in the United States: Phoenix AMA watershed and the Potomac River Basin. The results are used in our SImple WAter model (SIWA) to explore water management options.

  2. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change. PMID:27054718

  3. Comparing Observed Hurricane Conditions Against Potential Future Climate Change Influences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, W. D.

    2012-12-01

    Climate Adaptation Science Investigators: (CASI) is to advance and apply NASA's scientific expertise and products to develop climate adaptation strategies that support NASA's overall mission by minimizing risks to each center's operations, physical assets, and personnel. Using Hurricane Katrina observations as a baseline, we use ADCIRC to model surge extent with simple modifications of the storm track. We examine two time now (T0) scenarios of present-day climatological factors: 1) translating the 2005 path 7 km west; and 2) rotating the approach angle from due-north to WNW. Second, we examine two future time scenarios (TX) by infusing climate change conditions, such as sea level rise and increased storm intensity, into a T0 baseline to assess future impacts. The primary goal of this work entails planning and protecting NASA assets and infrastructure. The adjacent communities, state and local emergency managers, gain benefit from this NASA work as data and analysis includes the surrounding geography.

  4. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for other

  5. Diverging Responses of Tropical Andean Biomes under Future Climate Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Tovar, Carolina; Arnillas, Carlos Alberto; Cuesta, Francisco; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-01-01

    Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%–17.4%), there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar assessments for

  6. Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirschi, M.; Stöckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Rotach, M. W.; Calanca, P.; Samietz, J.

    2010-09-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously unaffected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests have been developed, which model the infestation depending on actual weather conditions. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages therefore requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, pest forecast models are often not based on screen temperature and precipitation alone (i.e., the most generally projected climate variables), but might require input variables such as soil temperature, in-canopy net radiation or leaf wetness. Here, we use a stochastic weather and a re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather data from regional climate change scenarios for 2050 in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios were derived from multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly temperature, precipitation and radiation data were produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather time series were then used for modeling important phases in the lifecycle of codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. First results indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of phases relevant for pest disease control for projected as compared to current climate (e.g. the flight of the codling moth starts about ten days earlier in future climate), continuing an already observed trend towards more favorable conditions for this insect during the last 20 years.

  7. Climatic conditions in northern Canada: past and future.

    PubMed

    Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Edwards, Thomas W D

    2009-07-01

    This article reviews the historical, instrumental, and future changes in climate for the northern latitudes of Canada. Discussion of historical climate over the last 10 000 years focuses on major climatic shifts including the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and how these changes compare with those most recently experienced during the period of instrumental records. In reference to the latter, details are noted about observed trends in temperature and precipitation that have been recorded over the last half century, which exhibit strong west to east and north to south spatial contrasts. A comprehensive review of future changes is also provided based on outputs from seven atmosphere-ocean global climate models and six emission scenarios. Discussion focuses on annual, seasonal, and related spatial changes for three 30-year periods centered on the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. In summary, substantial changes to temperature and precipitation are projected for the Canadian North during the twenty-first century. Although there is considerable variability within the various projections, all scenarios show higher temperature and, for the most part, increasing precipitation over the entire region.

  8. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  9. Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-10-01

    Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

  10. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Treesearch

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  11. Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

    2010-05-01

    To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a

  12. Phosphorus cycling and limitation under modified conditions that represent potential future conditions with a changing climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, K.; Paytan, A.; Field, C. B.; Lecher, A.; Kendall, C.; Silva, S. R.; Peek, S.

    2016-12-01

    Phosphorus (P) is often a limiting nutrient in terrestrial systems. It has recently been proposed to play an even greater role in ecosystems experiencing some of the many predicted effects of climate change, in particular release from nitrogen limitation. To investigate the potential for P limitation, and P cycling under various controlled conditions we participated in the ongoing Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE). For 18 years the JRGCE has been manipulating four key parameters predicted to change in the future in a Californian grassland system. Elevated Nitrogen deposition, increased precipitation, increased pCO2, and increased temperature are applied and monitored in a split plot system at the Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve in the eastern foothills of the Santa Cruz Mountains, California. In this study we utilize the oxygen isotopes of phosphate to investigate P cycling in soils at JRGCE in conjunction with phosphate enzyme activity and other parameters to attempt to elucidate factors influencing P limitation and cycling. A fractional soil extraction process for phosphate enables separation of several operationally defined P pools, and provides auxiliary information regarding the relative concentrations of bio-available P, and relevant minerals in this grassland system under the various conditions.

  13. Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

  14. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  15. Frog population viability under present and future climate conditions: a Bayesian state-space approach.

    PubMed

    McCaffery, R; Solonen, A; Crone, E

    2012-09-01

    1. World-wide extinctions of amphibians are at the forefront of the biodiversity crisis, with climate change figuring prominently as a potential driver of continued amphibian decline. As in other taxa, changes in both the mean and variability of climate conditions may affect amphibian populations in complex, unpredictable ways. In western North America, climate models predict a reduced duration and extent of mountain snowpack and increased variability in precipitation, which may have consequences for amphibians inhabiting montane ecosystems. 2. We used Bayesian capture-recapture methods to estimate survival and transition probabilities in a high-elevation population of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) over 10 years and related these rates to interannual variation in peak snowpack. Then, we forecasted frog population growth and viability under a range of scenarios with varying levels of change in mean and variance in snowpack. 3. Over a range of future scenarios, changes in mean snowpack had a greater effect on viability than changes in the variance of snowpack, with forecasts largely predicting an increase in population viability. Population models based on snowpack during our study period predicted a declining population. 4. Although mean conditions were more important for viability than variance, for a given mean snowpack depth, increases in variability could change a population from increasing to decreasing. Therefore, the influence of changing climate variability on populations should be accounted for in predictive models. The Bayesian modelling framework allows for the explicit characterization of uncertainty in parameter estimates and ecological forecasts, and thus provides a natural approach for examining relative contributions of mean and variability in climatic variables to population dynamics. 5. Longevity and heterogeneous habitat may contribute to the potential for this amphibian species to be resilient to increased climatic variation, and

  16. Analysis of extreme climatic features over South America from CLARIS-LPB ensemble of regional climate models for future conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez, E.; Zaninelli, P.; Carril, A.; Menendez, C.; Dominguez, M.

    2012-04-01

    An ensemble of seven regional climate models (RCM) included in the European CLARIS-LPB project (A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin) are used to study how some features related to climatic extremes are projected to be changed by the end of XXIst century. These RCMs are forced by different IPCC-AR4 global climate models (IPSL, ECHAM5 and HadCM3), covering three different 30-year periods: present (1960-1990), near future (2010-2040) and distant future (2070-2100), with 50km of horizontal resolution. These regional climate models have previously been forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis, in a consistent procedure with CORDEX (A COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) initiative for the South-America domain. The analysis shows a good agreement among them and the available observational databases to describe the main features of the mean climate of the continent. Here we focus our analysis on some topics of interest related to extreme events, such as the development of diagnostics related to dry-spells length, the structure of the frequency distribution functions over several subregions defined by more or less homogeneous climatic conditions (four sub-basins over the La Plata Basin, the southern part of the Amazon basin, Northeast Brazil, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)), the structure of the annual cycle and their main features and relation with the length of the seasons, or the frequency of anomalous hot or cold events. One shortcoming that must be considered is the lack of observational databases with both time and spatial frequency to validate model outputs. At the same time, one challenging issue of this study is the regional modelling description of a continent where a huge variety of climates are present, from desert to mountain conditions, and from tropical to subtropical regimes. Another basic objective of this preliminary work is also to obtain a measure of the spread among

  17. Runoff conditions in the Zambezi basin under historic climate and possible future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kling, H.; Preishuber, M.; Fuchs, M.

    2012-04-01

    The Zambezi basin covers 1.4 Mio km2 and is Africa's fourth largest basin. The Zambezi River and its major tributaries are of vital importance to the eight countries sharing the basin. Apart from the ecological value, river runoff is used for hydropower generation, including two of the world's largest hydropower dams (Kariba, Cahora Bassa). Several additional large dams are currently in the planning stages. Future water use may also see a sharp increase of water diversions for irrigation. Atop on these human-made impacts on river runoff, future runoff conditions may also be strongly affected by climate change. To assist in the assessment of future water resources availability a web-based Decision Support System (DSS) is currently developed for the whole Zambezi basin. This open, easy-to-use tool enables to analyze the different impacts of dams (existing and new), irrigation projects and climate change scenarios. The outline of the DSS, data-basis, and simulation under historic conditions and future scenarios will be presented.

  18. Storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea: Variability and trends under future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Androulidakis, Yannis S.; Kombiadou, Katerina D.; Makris, Christos V.; Baltikas, Vassilis N.; Krestenitis, Yannis N.

    2015-09-01

    The trends of storm surge extremes in the Mediterranean Sea for a period of 150 years (1951-2100) are explored, using a high-resolution storm surge model. Numerical simulations are forced by the output of regional climate simulations with RegCM3, which uses IPCC's historical data on greenhouse gasses emissions for the (past) period 1951-2000, and IPCC's A1B climate scenario for the (future) period 2001-2100. Comparisons between observations and modeling results show good agreement and confirm the ability of our model to estimate the response of the sea surface to future climatic conditions. We investigate the future trends, the variability and frequency of local extremes and the main forcing mechanisms that can induce strong surges in the Mediterranean region. Our results support that there is a general decreasing trend in storminess under the considered climate scenario, mostly related to the frequency of local peaks and the duration and spatial coverage of the storm surges. The northward shift in the location of storm tracks is a possible reason for this storminess attenuation, especially over areas where the main driving factor of extreme events is the inverted barometer effect. However, the magnitudes of sea surface elevation extremes may increase in several Mediterranean sub-regions, i.e., Southern Adriatic, Balearic and Tyrrhenian Seas, during the 21st century. There are clear distinctions in the contributions of winds and pressure fields to the sea level height for various regions of the Mediterranean Sea, as well as on the seasonal variability of extreme values; the Aegean and Adriatic Seas are characteristic examples, where high surges are predicted to be mainly induced by low pressure systems and favorable winds, respectively.

  19. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2016-08-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  20. Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

    2015-12-01

    We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2

  1. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  2. Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Törnros, T.; Menzel, L.

    2014-01-01

    The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of timescales - for example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the 6-month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing vegetation growth in the semi-arid region. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.

  3. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.

  4. Sensitivity of salmonid freshwater life history in western US streams to future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Beer, W Nicholas; Anderson, James J

    2013-08-01

    We projected effects of mid-21st century climate on the early life growth of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) in western United States streams. Air temperature and snowpack trends projected from observed 20th century trends were used to predict future seasonal stream temperatures. Fish growth from winter to summer was projected with temperature-dependent models of egg development and juvenile growth. Based on temperature data from 115 sites, by mid-21st century, the effects of climate change are projected to be mixed. Fish in warm-region streams that are currently cooled by snow melt will grow less, and fish in suboptimally cool streams will grow more. Relative to 20th century conditions, by mid-21st century juvenile salmonids' weights are expected to be lower in the Columbia Basin and California Central Valley, but unchanged or greater in coastal and mountain streams. Because fish weight affects fish survival, the predicted changes in weight could impact population fitness depending on other factors such as density effects, food quality and quantity changes, habitat alterations, etc. The level of year-to-year variability in stream temperatures is high and our analysis suggests that identifying effects of climate change over the natural variability will be difficult except in a few streams.

  5. Futures Conditional.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Theobald, Robert

    The readings presented here are designed to help the reader perceive the future more vividly. Part one of the book suggests the various ways in which the future can be seen; it includes science fiction and the views of various analysts as to what the future holds. Part two collects printed materials about the future from various sources, including…

  6. Futures Conditional.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Theobald, Robert

    The readings presented here are designed to help the reader perceive the future more vividly. Part one of the book suggests the various ways in which the future can be seen; it includes science fiction and the views of various analysts as to what the future holds. Part two collects printed materials about the future from various sources, including…

  7. Future climate impact on unfavorable meteorological conditions for the dispersion of air pollution in Brussels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Troch, Rozemien; Berckmans, Julie; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet

    2015-04-01

    Belgium is one of the several countries in Europe where air quality levels of different pollutants such as ozone, NOx, and Particulate Matter (PM) still exceed the prescribed European norms multiple times a year (EEA, 2014). These pollution peaks have a great impact on health and environment, in particular in large cities and urban environments. It is well known that observed concentrations of air pollutants are strongly influenced by emissions and meteorological conditions and therefore is sensitive to climate change. As the effects of global climate change are increasingly felt in Belgium, policy makers express growing interest in quantifying its effect on air pollution and the effort required to meet the air quality targets in the next years and decennia (Lauwaet et al., 2014). In this study, two different stability indices are calculated for a 9-year period using present (1991-1999) and future (2047-2055) climate data that has been obtained from a dynamically downscaling of Global Climate Model data from the Arpège model using the ALARO model at 4 km spatial resolution. The ALARO model is described in detail in previous validation studies from De Troch et al. (2013) and Hamdi et al. (2013). The first index gives a measure of the horizontal and vertical transport of nonreactive pollutants in stable atmospheric conditions and has been proposed and tested by Termonia and Quinet (2004). It gives a characteristic length scale l which is the ratio of the mean horizontal wind speed and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency. In this way low values for l in the lower part of the boundary layer during an extended time span of 12 hours, correspond to calm situations and a stable atmosphere and thus indicate unfavorable conditions for the dispersion of air pollution. This transport index is similar to an index used in an old Pasquill-type scheme but is more convenient to use to detect the strongest pollution peaks. The well known Pasquill classes are also calculated in order to

  8. Is the impact of future climate change on hydro-climatic conditions significant? - A climate change study for an Eastern European catchment area.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlik, Dirk; Söhl, Dennis; Bernhofer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The future change of climatic conditions is, among others, closely linked to future hydrological changes. One important aspect of these issues is the question of future availability of water resources. A changed climatic water balance, as indicator for potential water availability, has far-reaching consequences for the water cycle, hydrological conditions, ecology, water management, the energy business, agriculture and forestry, and for anthropogenic use of the river. We generated regional climate projections via dynamic downscaling for the catchment area of the Western Bug river in the border area of Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. The hydro-climatic conditions of the past and their projected future changes in the catchment were analyzed based on 2m-temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and climatic water balance. Up to the end of the century, the used IPCC scenarios B1 and A2 lead to warming for each month in the long-term mean, with highest warming rates in winter. Instead, precipitation does not change in the long-term yearly mean. However, the intra-annual distribution of monthly precipitation sums shifts with an increase in winter and a strong decrease in summer. Combined, this leads to a changed climatic water balance with a stronger deficit in summer and a higher gain in winter. Particular in the south-eastern part of the catchment, the summer deficit cannot be compensated within the annual cycle. It raised the question: are these changes statistically significant and thus robust for use in further impact studies? Using a significance analysis, we found, that climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evaporation and thus the climatic water balance change is most significant for scenario A2 from 2071 to 2100. The temperature changes are significant throughout the year. For the other variables changes are most significant in the late summer months (July, August, and September) and the winter months (December, January, and February

  9. : “Developing Regional Modeling Techniques Applicable for Simulating Future Climate Conditions in the Carolinas”

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global climate models (GCMs) are currently used to obtain information about future changes in the large-scale climate. However, such simulations are typically done at coarse spatial resolutions, with model grid boxes on the order of 100 km on a horizontal side. Therefore, techniq...

  10. : “Developing Regional Modeling Techniques Applicable for Simulating Future Climate Conditions in the Carolinas”

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global climate models (GCMs) are currently used to obtain information about future changes in the large-scale climate. However, such simulations are typically done at coarse spatial resolutions, with model grid boxes on the order of 100 km on a horizontal side. Therefore, techniq...

  11. Regional downscaling of Mediterranean droughts under past and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hertig, Elke; Tramblay, Yves

    2017-04-01

    The complexity of the Mediterranean climate with its high precipitation variability and its unequal seasonal distribution with a wet season from approximately October to April and a dry season in summer set general conditions for a high vulnerability of the Mediterranean area to droughts. In the last few decades the risk of drought episodes appears to be enhanced in the Mediterranean area due to temperature increases combined with precipitation decreases. This general change towards warmer and dryer conditions is expected to continue in the future. In the present study droughts are represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), at 114 stations located across the Mediterranean area. The SPI is a normalized measure of drought severity relative to a specific location, obtained from rainfall totals aggregated over different time periods. This allows a comparison of different locations and the delineation of homogeneous regions with similar SPI variability. 13 regions have been identified. A downscaling approach using circulation types based on geopotential heights and relative humidity as predictors has been set up to downscale the SPI time series in the different regions. The downscaling approach has been validated using running 21 years validation periods, in order to assess the skill of the method during different climatic conditions and to detect possible non-stationarities in the predictors-predictand relationships. Results show that the downscaling method provided satisfactory results, except for the most arid regions. Future projections, provided from a three member ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR model under scenario RCP 8.5, indicate an increase in the drought severity and occurrence for the whole Mediterranean region for the period 2070-2100.

  12. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions.

  13. Sensitivity of global river discharges under Holocene and future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Renssen, H.; Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Odada, E.; Bouwer, L. M.; Goosse, H.

    2006-10-01

    A comparative analysis of global river basins shows that some river discharges are more sensitive to future climate change for the coming century than to natural climate variability over the last 9000 years. In these basins (Ganges, Mekong, Volta, Congo, Amazon, Murray-Darling, Rhine, Oder, Yukon) future discharges increase by 6-61%. These changes are of similar magnitude to changes over the last 9000 years. Some rivers (Nile, Syr Darya) experienced strong reductions in discharge over the last 9000 years (17-56%), but show much smaller responses to future warming. The simulation results for the last 9000 years are validated with independent proxy data.

  14. Grassland species differentially regulate proline concentrations under future climate conditions: an integrated biochemical and modelling approach.

    PubMed

    AbdElgawad, Hamada; De Vos, Dirk; Zinta, Gaurav; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han

    2015-10-01

    Proline (Pro) is a versatile metabolite playing a role in the protection of plants against environmental stresses. To gain a deeper understanding of the regulation of Pro metabolism under predicted future climate conditions, including drought stress, elevated temperature and CO2 , we combined measurements in contrasting grassland species (two grasses and two legumes) at multiple organisational levels, that is, metabolite concentrations, enzyme activities and gene expression. Drought stress (D) activates Pro biosynthesis and represses its catabolism, and elevated temperature (DT) further elevated its content. Elevated CO2 attenuated the DT effect on Pro accumulation. Computational pathway control analysis allowed a mechanistic understanding of the regulatory changes in Pro metabolism. This analysis indicates that the experimentally observed coregulation of multiple enzymes is more effective in modulating Pro concentrations than regulation of a single step. Pyrroline-5-carboxylate synthetase (P5CS) and pyrroline-5-carboxylate reductase (P5CR) play a central role in grasses (Lolium perenne, Poa pratensis), and arginase (ARG), ornithine aminotransferase (OAT) and P5CR play a central role in legumes (Medicago lupulina, Lotus corniculatus). Different strategies in the regulation of Pro concentrations under stress conditions were observed. In grasses the glutamate pathway is activated predominantly, and in the legumes the ornithine pathway, possibly related to differences in N-nutritional status.

  15. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect

    R.M. Forester

    2000-03-14

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.

  16. Future Wave Conditions of North West Europe, in Response to High-end Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bricheno, L.; Wolf, J.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal areas (less than 100m above sea level) are the most densely populated on earth - currently, more than 35% of the world's GDP and 40% of the population (e.g. Lichter et al., 2011) is located there. The relevant physical variables which will affect these areas in a warmer future climate are global/regional sea level rise and changes in extreme sea levels, storminess and waves. Projections of coastal wave impacts under high-end climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios have been made, using CMIP5 climate model forcing to drive the WaveWatchIII wave model at global and regional scales. Our particular area of interest is the Atlantic-facing NW European coast. We have used Euro-CORDEX downscaled wind forcing at 11km resolution as well as EC-Earth global winds for the present day to 2100 period. We have explored the change in storm climate in the North Atlantic over this period and derived the changes in the coastal wave climate in order to estimate impacts of climate change on a European and local scale. There are still uncertainties in the North Atlantic storms generated in the latest climate models and we examine the downscaled forcing data in order to estimate how well extreme winds are reproduced. Changes in the metrics of significant wave height, wave period and direction for different types of coastline are explored and implications for coastal adaptation are assessed. Finally, we will discuss if the dynamical downscaling has added value to predictions of extreme waves at the coast.

  17. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  18. Future Climate Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    James Houseworth

    2001-10-12

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure 1), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Revision 00 of this AMR was prepared in accordance with the ''Work Direction and Planning Document for Future Climate Analysis'' (Peterman 1999) under Interagency Agreement DE-AI08-97NV12033 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The planning document for the technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department''. (BSC 2001b, Addendum B

  19. Optimization of Water Management of Cranberry Fields under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Létourneau, G.; Gumiere, S.; Mailhot, E.; Rousseau, A. N.

    2016-12-01

    In North America, cranberry production is on the rise. Since 2005, land area dedicated to cranberry doubled, principally in Canada. Recent studies have shown that sub-irrigation could lead to improvements in yield, water use efficiency and pumping energy requirements compared to conventional sprinkler irrigation. However, the experimental determination of the optimal water table level of each production site may be expensiveand time-consuming. The primary objective of this study is to optimize the water table level as a function of typical soil properties, and climatic conditions observed in major production areas using a numerical modeling approach. The second objective is to evaluate the impacts of projected climatic conditions on water management of cranberry fields. To that end, cranberry-specific management operations such as harvest flooding, rapid drainage following heavy rainfall, or hydric stress management during dry weather conditions were simulated with the HYDRUS 2D software. Results have shown that maintaining the water table approximately at 60 cm provides optimal results for most of the studied soils. However, under certain extreme climatic conditions, the drainage system design may not allow maintaining optimal hydric conditions for cranberry growth. The long-term benefit of this study has potential to advance the design of drainage/sub-irrigation systems.

  20. The climate of Kazakhstan: an examination of current conditions and future needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russell, Andrew; Ali, Maged; Althonayan, Abraham; Akhmetov, Kanat; Gazdiyeva, Bella; Ghalaieny, Mohamed; Kurmanbayeva, Aygul; McCann, Meg; Mukanov, Yelzhas; Tucker, Allan; Zhumabayeva, Sara

    2017-04-01

    Environmental Health is an essential aspect of any successful society; indeed, it was recognised as a cornerstone of the UN's Agenda 21 action plan for sustainable development. Clean air and water, safe food, minimal exposure to toxic materials, disaster preparedness, planning for climate change and effective waste management are all fundamental to a healthy population and socio-economic progress. In recent years, particularly since 2000, Kazakhstan's economic development has been exceptional. However, health indicators such as life expectancy are lagging behind nations with similar economies. It is likely that this "health lag" is, to a large extent, caused or aggravated by the poor state of Kazakhstan's natural environment. In this paper, we focus on the role of recent and future climate change in Kazakhstan. We examine ECMWF re-analysis data, data derived directly from observations and CMIP5 climate projections for the region to understand how climate may impact environmental health in the country. This analysis is part of a larger project that aims to take a more holistic approach to the analysis of environmental health in a developing nation.

  1. The role of vegetation for tropospheric ozone balance: possible changes under future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Cheng; Pullinen, Iida; Andres, Stefanie; Carriero, Giulia; Fares, Silvano; Hacker, Lina; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Kleist, Einhard; Paoletti, Elena; Wahner, Andreas; Wildt, Jürgen; Mentel, Thomas F.

    2015-04-01

    Ozone (O3) is a phytotoxic trace gas in the troposphere where it is photochemically produced from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The dominant sink of O3 in the air over areas with dense plant cover is dry deposition on plant surfaces. However, plants can also contribute to photochemical O3 formation because they emit biogenic VOCs (BVOCs). In this study, the role of vegetation for tropospheric ozone balance was investigated by considering the following processes: O3 depletion by dry deposition on plant surfaces, O3 depletion by gas phase reactions with plant emitted BVOCs, and photochemical O3 production from these BVOCs. Furthermore, drought and heat stress were applied to the plants, and the stress-induced changes of plant performance and the subsequent changes regarding the tropospheric ozone balance were investigated. Dry deposition of O3 in unstressed plants was dominated by O3 uptake through the plants stomata with negligible losses on cuticle and stem. For strong BVOC emitters, O3 destruction by gas phase reactions with BVOCs was significant at low NOx conditions. Switching from low NOx to high NOx conditions led to O3 production. A ratio of O3 formation rates over BVOC loss rates was measured for α-pinene as single BVOC and for BVOC mixtures emitted from real plants. For O3 formation under BVOC limited conditions, this ratio was in the range of 2-3 ppb/ppb. The ratio of O3 uptake/BVOC emission reflects the capability of a plant as a potential source of O3, while NOx concentrations and the BVOC/NOx ratio determine whether the emitted BVOCs act as an additional sink or a source of O3. O3 uptake rates and BVOC emission rates are affected by environmental variables such as temperature, light intensity and stresses to plants. The impacts of these variables on the two processes are different and thus the capability of a plant to be a source of O3 is also affected. As future climate change will bring more and intense heat waves and

  2. Future Climate Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    C. G. Cambell

    2004-09-03

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

  3. Regional climate response to land surface changes after harvest in the North China Plain under present and possible future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Mee-Hyun; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Lim, Gyu-Ho

    2014-04-01

    In this study, we investigated the impacts of land use alterations from harvesting practices on the regional surface climate over the North China Plain. The surface climate responses after harvest in June in regions where double-cropping is practiced were evaluated using observations and model simulations with the global climate model HadGEM2-Atmosphere. Responses were modeled under both present and possible future climate conditions. In the model, double-cropping was represented using the monthly varying fraction of vegetation. This contributed to an improvement in the model simulation over East Asia. Modeling results showed that the land surface was warmer and drier after harvest, and these simulation results were consistent with observations. The bare soil surface after harvest in June had biophysical impacts on the surface climate that were mediated by decreasing evapotranspiration and latent heat flux effects, which increased surface air temperatures and decreased surface humidity. An increase in shortwave radiation also contributed to the rise in temperatures. Under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios for possible future climate conditions, land conversion induced additional warming in addition to greenhouse gases induced global warming. The RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios demonstrated a warming of 1.0°C and 1.4°C due to harvesting practices in June, respectively. The response magnitude was affected by the climate conditions in each RCP. Our results suggest that potential impacts of harvest on the local climate need to be considered in future projections of CO2-induced warming on a regional scale.

  4. Diverse seed banks favour adaptation of microalgal populations to future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Kremp, Anke; Oja, Johanna; LeTortorec, Anniina H; Hakanen, Päivi; Tahvanainen, Pia; Tuimala, Jarno; Suikkanen, Sanna

    2016-02-01

    Selection of suitable genotypes from diverse seed banks may help phytoplankton populations to cope with environmental changes. This study examines whether the high genotypic diversity found in the Baltic cyst pool of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii is coupled to phenotypic variability that could aid short-term adaptation. Growth rates, cellular toxicities and bioluminescence of 34 genetically different clones isolated from cyst beds of four Baltic bloom sites were determined in batch culture experiments along temperature and salinity gradients covering present and future conditions in the Baltic Sea. For all parameters a significant effect of genotype on the response to temperature and salinity changes was identified. General or site-specific effects of the two factors remained minor. Clones thriving at future conditions were different from the best performing at present conditions, suggesting that genotypic shifts may be expected in the future. Increased proportions of highly potent saxitoxin were observed as a plastic response to temperature increase, indicating a potential for higher toxicity of future blooms. The observed standing variation in Baltic seed banks of A. ostenfeldii suggests that the population is likely to persist under environmental change.

  5. Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire

    2014-05-01

    Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results

  6. Catchment scale modelling of changes in pesticide leaching under present and future climate conditions. Demonstrated for two cases in Denmark

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Keur, P.; Henriksen, H.; Sonnenborg, T.; van Roosmalen, L.; Rosenbom, A. E.; Olesen, J. E.; Kjaer, J.; Jørgensen, L. N.; Christensen, O. B.

    2011-12-01

    A catchment scale model MACRO-MIKE SHE is applied for simulating changes in pesticide concentrations to the aquatic environment. The MACRO model is used to model the effect of changes in climate and pesticide management on pesticide leaching from the unsaturated zone and simulated percolation as well as solute flow is propagated to the MIKE SHE model. The intensity based bias correction method for converting from Regional Climate Modelling data to hydrological input data is the most appropriate method as it best reflects changes in rainfall intensity, and thus also in intensity for MACRO simulated percolation and solute flow. Results show that increased percolation simulated by the MACRO model and propagated to the MIKE SHE model nearly all ends up in increased drainage to the river. Further, pesticide solute entering the saturated zone (SZ) is mainly leaving SZ via drainage (85-94%), base flow (3.8-11.3%) and overland flow (0-3.1 %). Mean concentrations in groundwater (SZ) increase by 30-99% for one type of herbicide under future climatic conditions, whereas mean concentrations decrease for two other types by app. 93 and 91 % respectively. Future climatic conditions lead to higher concentrations in surface water for the first type of herbicides, but to decreased concentrations for the another type of herbicide and insecticide. It is overall concluded that an integrated catchment scale modeling approach is essential for pesticide fate simulation taking account of all possible hydrologic pathways.

  7. A coupled Bayesian and fault tree methodology to assess future groundwater conditions in light of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J. J.; Du, M.; McBean, E. A.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.

    2014-08-01

    Maintaining acceptable groundwater levels, particularly in arid areas, while protecting ecosystems, are key measures against desertification. Due to complicated hydrological processes and their inherent uncertainties, investigations of groundwater recharge conditions are challenging, particularly in arid areas under climate changing conditions. To assist planning to protect against desertification, a fault tree methodology, in conjunction with fuzzy logic and Bayesian data mining, are applied to Minqin Oasis, a highly vulnerable regime in northern China. A set of risk factors is employed within the fault tree framework, with fuzzy logic translating qualitative risk data into probabilities. Bayesian data mining is used to quantify the contribution of each risk factor to the final aggregated risk. The implications of both historical and future climate trends are employed for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to assess water table changes under various future scenarios. The findings indicate that water table levels will continue to drop at the rate of 0.6 m yr-1 in the future when climatic effects alone are considered, if agricultural and industrial production capacity remain at 2004 levels.

  8. Quantifying the effects of future climate conditions on runoff, sediment and chemical losses at different watershed sizes

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Assessing the sensitivity of agricultural watersheds to possible changes in future climate is imperative when developing appropriate management practices. Agricultural management practices are often assessed at the watershed scale, and therefore, understanding the influence of climate change at diff...

  9. Natural emissions under future climate condition and their effects on surface ozone in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Min; Shu, Lei; Wang, Ti-jian; Liu, Qian; Gao, Da; Li, Shu; Zhuang, Bing-liang; Han, Yong; Li, Meng-meng; Chen, Pu-long

    2017-02-01

    The natural emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) are sensitive to climate. Future climate change can impact O3 concentrations by perturbing these emissions. To better estimate the variation of natural emissions under different climate conditions and understand its effect on surface O3, we model the present and the future air quality over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by running different simulations with the aid of the WRF-CALGRID model system that contains a natural emission module. Firstly, we estimate the natural emissions at present and in IPCC A1B scenario. The results show that biogenic VOC emission and soil NOx emission over YRD in 2008 is 657 Gg C and 19.1 Gg N, respectively. According to climate change, these emissions in 2050 will increase by 25.5% and 11.5%, respectively. Secondly, the effects of future natural emissions and meteorology on surface O3 are investigated and compared. It is found that the variations in meteorological fields can significantly alter the spatial distribution of O3 over YRD, with the increases of 5-15 ppb in the north and the decreases of -5 to -15 ppb in the south. However, only approximately 20% of the surface O3 increases caused by climate change can be attributed to the natural emissions, with the highest increment up to 2.4 ppb. Finally, Ra (the ratio of impacts from NOx and VOCs on O3 formation) and H2O2/HNO3 (the ratio between the concentrations of H2O2 and HNO3) are applied to study the O3 sensitivity in YRD. The results show that the transition value of H2O2/HNO3 will turn from 0.3 to 0.5 in 2008 to 0.4-0.8 in 2050. O3 formation in the YRD region will be insensitive to VOCs under future climate condition, implying more NOx need to be cut down. Our findings can help us understand O3 variation trend and put forward the reasonable and effective pollution control policies in these famous polluted areas.

  10. Can We Asses the Impact of Water Factor on Ecosystems and Agriculture under Future Climate Conditions? Case Study from Poland.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okruszko, T.; O'Keeffe, J.; Marcinkowski, P.; Utratna, M.; Szcześniak, M.; Piniewski, M.

    2016-12-01

    This study presents a broad overview of climate change impacts on eco- and agro-systems in Poland using an index-based approach for the Vistula and Odra river basins in Poland. The issues of risks to biodiversity and agricultural productivity caused by climate change (CC) are explicitly addressed. The biodiversity issue is tackled by the analysis of two types of ecosystems: instream and wetland (both river-and groundwater fed). Agro-systems are analyzed using key crops (spring and winter grains, potatoes, corn and grasslands),including their regional differentiation and dominant soil types. The study was accomplished in the following steps: (1) development of historical climate dataset and its application for bias correction of climate projections, (2) modelling the hydrological system using the SWAT model for historical and future climate, (3) development of indices quantifying the impact of water factoron eco- and agro-systems based on the SWAT model results, (4) calculation and critical analysis of results for two emission scenarios (RCPs) and two time horizons. The 5-km resolution precipitation and temperature dataset (10.5194/essd-8-127-2016) was developed and applied for bias correction of the multi-model ensemble of 9 CORDEX RCMs under two RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Comprehensive calibration/validation of SWAT showed overall good results across a range of catchment sizes in Poland. The ensemble median increase (relative to historical period) ranged between 6 and 16 % for precipitation and between 18 and 48 % for water yield simulated by SWAT, depending on the future time horizon and RCP. The Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) quantifying the natural flow regime were used as a proxy for quantifying the CC effect on instream biota (notably fish). Changes in frequency and magnitude of the identified flood events informed about the alteration to the water supply for riparian wetlands. Changes in groundwater recharge are used as a proxy for water conditions in

  11. Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João A.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2011-03-01

    The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

  12. Climate change and wildfire effects in aridland riparian ecosystems: An examination of current and future conditions

    Treesearch

    D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch

    2017-01-01

    Aridland riparian ecosystems are limited, the climate is changing, and further hydrological change is likely in the American Southwest. To protect riparian ecosystems and organisms, we need to understand how they are affected by disturbance processes and stressors such as fire, drought, and non-native plant invasions. Riparian vegetation is critically important as...

  13. Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Santos, João A; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Karremann, Melanie K; Pinto, Joaquim G

    2011-03-01

    The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO(2) may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

  14. Framing the future in the Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

    Treesearch

    David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K.C. Binita; Christopher W. Strother

    2014-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or “anthropogenic” activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/ land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes amplifying...

  15. Predicting the distribution of a novel bark beetle and its pine hosts under future climate conditions

    Treesearch

    Steven E. Smith; Ma.G. Mendoza; Gerardo Zuniga; Kandres Kalbrook; J.L. Hayes; D.N. Byrne

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the distribution of key biotic elements of forest ecosystems is essential in contemporary forest management and in planning to meet future management needs. Habitat distribution (niche) models based on known occurrences provide geographical structure for such management as the environmental factors change....

  16. Climatic controls on biophysical interactions in the Black Sea under present day conditions and a potential future (A1B) climate scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannaby, Heather; Fach, Bettina A.; Arkin, Sinan S.; Salihoglu, Baris

    2015-01-01

    A dynamical downscaling approach has been applied to investigate climatic controls on biophysical interactions and lower trophic level dynamics in the Black Sea. Simulations were performed under present day conditions (1980-1999) and a potential future (2080-2099) climate scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario. Simulations project a 3.7 °C increase in SST, a 25% increase in the stability of the seasonal thermocline and a 37 day increase in the duration of seasonal stratification. Increased winter temperatures inhibited the formation of Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) waters resulting in near complete erosion of the CIL, with implications for the ventilation of intermediate water masses and the subduction of riverine nutrients. A 4% increase in nitrate availability within the upper 30 m of the water column reflected an increase in the retention time of river water within the surface mixed-layer. Changes in thermohaline structure, combined with a 27% reduction in positive wind stress curl, forced a distinct change in the structure of the basin-scale circulation. The predominantly cyclonic circulation characteristic of contemporary conditions was reversed within the southern and eastern regions of the basin, where under A1B climatic conditions, anticyclonic circulation prevailed. The change in circulation structure significantly altered the horizontal advection and dispersion of high nutrient river waters originating on the NW self. Net primary production increased by 5% on average, with much spatial variability in the response, linked to advective processes. Phytoplankton biomass also increased by 5% and the higher nutrient environment of the future scenario caused a shift in species composition in favour of larger phytoplankton. No significant change in zooplankton biomass was projected. These results constitute one of many possible future scenarios for the Black Sea, being dependent on the modelling

  17. Expression of cyanobacterial FBP/SBPase in soybean prevents yield depression under future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Köhler, Iris H; Ruiz-Vera, Ursula M; VanLoocke, Andy; Thomey, Michell L; Clemente, Tom; Long, Stephen P; Ort, Donald R; Bernacchi, Carl J

    2016-12-12

    Predictions suggest that current crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet global food and energy demands. Based on theory and experimental studies, overexpression of the photosynthetic enzyme sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase (SBPase) is expected to enhance C3 crop photosynthesis and yields. Here we test how expression of the cyanobacterial, bifunctional fructose-1,6/sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase (FBP/SBPase) affects carbon assimilation and seed yield (SY) in a major crop (soybean, Glycine max). For three growing seasons, wild-type (WT) and FBP/SBPase-expressing (FS) plants were grown in the field under ambient (400 μmol mol(-1)) and elevated (600 μmol mol(-1)) CO2 concentrations [CO2] and under ambient and elevated temperatures (+2.7 °C during daytime, +3.4 °C at night) at the SoyFACE research site. Across treatments, FS plants had significantly higher carbon assimilation (4-14%), V c,max (5-8%), and J max (4-8%). Under ambient [CO2], elevated temperature led to significant reductions of SY of both genotypes by 19-31%. However, under elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature, FS plants maintained SY levels, while the WT showed significant reductions between 11% and 22% compared with plants under elevated [CO2] alone. These results show that the manipulation of the photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle can mitigate the effects of future high CO2 and high temperature environments on soybean yield.

  18. Expression of cyanobacterial FBP/SBPase in soybean prevents yield depression under future climate conditions

    PubMed Central

    Köhler, Iris H.; Ruiz-Vera, Ursula M.; Thomey, Michell L.; Clemente, Tom; Ort, Donald R.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Predictions suggest that current crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet global food and energy demands. Based on theory and experimental studies, overexpression of the photosynthetic enzyme sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase (SBPase) is expected to enhance C3 crop photosynthesis and yields. Here we test how expression of the cyanobacterial, bifunctional fructose-1,6/sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase (FBP/SBPase) affects carbon assimilation and seed yield (SY) in a major crop (soybean, Glycine max). For three growing seasons, wild-type (WT) and FBP/SBPase-expressing (FS) plants were grown in the field under ambient (400 μmol mol−1) and elevated (600 μmol mol−1) CO2 concentrations [CO2] and under ambient and elevated temperatures (+2.7 °C during daytime, +3.4 °C at night) at the SoyFACE research site. Across treatments, FS plants had significantly higher carbon assimilation (4–14%), Vc,max (5–8%), and Jmax (4–8%). Under ambient [CO2], elevated temperature led to significant reductions of SY of both genotypes by 19–31%. However, under elevated [CO2] and elevated temperature, FS plants maintained SY levels, while the WT showed significant reductions between 11% and 22% compared with plants under elevated [CO2] alone. These results show that the manipulation of the photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle can mitigate the effects of future high CO2 and high temperature environments on soybean yield. PMID:28204603

  19. Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present and projected future climate conditions: a models' intercomparison perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarini, V.

    2010-09-01

    We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of several GCMs and RCMs included in the 4th IPCC assessment report on their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for present and (in the case of the GCMs) projected future climate conditions. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. Large discrepancies exist among RCMs for the monthly climatology as well as for the mean and variability of the annual balances, and only few data sets are consistent with the observed discharge values of the Danube at its Delta. This occurs in spite of common nesting of the RCMs into the same run of the same AGCM, and even if the driving AGCM provides itself an excellent estimate. We find consistently that, for a given model, increases in the resolution do not alter the net water balance, while speeding up the hydrological cycle through the enhancement of both precipitation and evaporation by the same amount. We propose that the atmospheric components of RCMs still face difficulties in representing the water balance even on a relatively large scale. Moreover, since for some models the hydrological balance estimates obtained with the runoff fields do not agree with those obtained via precipitation and evaporation, some deficiencies of the land models are also apparent. In the case of the GCMs, the span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are, surprisingly, comparable to those of the RCMs. Both RCMs and GCMs greatly outperform the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40

  20. Grain protein concentration and harvestable protein under future climate conditions. A study of 108 spring barley accessions.

    PubMed

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine H; Gislum, René; Jørgensen, Johannes R; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Stockmarr, Anders; Jørgensen, Rikke B

    2016-04-01

    In the present study a set of 108 spring barley (H. vulgare L.) accessions were cultivated under predicted future levels of temperature and [CO2] as single factors and in combination (IPCC, AR5, RCP8.5). Across all genotypes, elevated [CO2] (700 ppm day/night) slightly decreased protein concentration by 5%, while elevated temperature (+5 °C day/night) substantially increased protein concentration by 29%. The combined treatment increased protein concentration across accessions by 8%. This was an increase less than predicted from strictly additive effects of the individual treatments. Despite the increase in grain protein concentration, the decrease in grain yield at combined elevated temperature and elevated [CO2] resulted in 23% less harvestable protein. There was variation in the response of the 108 accessions, which might be exploited to at least maintain if not increase harvestable grain protein under future climate change conditions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Characteristic of blocking events over Siberia for the present and future climate conditions, and the implications for the regional climate in South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheung, H.; Zhou, W.

    2010-12-01

    Blocking activity over Siberia is a crucial factor for initiating and maintaining severe cold events in East Asia, but limited studies have provided a detailed analysis on the impact of its changing characteristics on the regional climate, especially in South China. By using 60-year NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Datasets (1950/51-2009/10), where a winter season is defined as the 151/152 day period from Nov 1 to Mar 31, distinct characteristics of the blocking events and their downstream impacts for the present climate conditions can be assessed thoroughly. It is found that the blocking events persisting east of the Ural Mountains are generally followed by a cold air outbreak sweeping across various parts in East Asia. Specifically, the intense blocking events usually have large extension and they potentially result in persistent cold weather within the region. On the other hand, the blocking events west of the Ural Mountains are found to exert an impact only if it is of long duration and high intensity. The cold air pathways may be dependent on the geographic location of the blocking anticyclone. The active blocking season over the Urals is probably associated with more intense cold events extending southward and eastward to a great extent. On the contrary, the cold events in the winters of high blocking activity east and west of the Urals are often confined to the northern region. The preferred blocking location may be related to the wavetrain signal propagating eastward from the North Atlantic Ocean. Long-term variability of blocking activities shows a remarkable decreasing and weakening trend. This is perhaps reflected by a similar trend of the cold events in East Asia. Energetic and dynamical factors that are favorable and unfavorable for a specific blocking character will be explored. The explanation is accompanied with the simulation results of future climate conditions using the IPCC AR4 model outputs. The analysis is particularly valuable for enhancing the

  2. Sustainability of socio-hydro system with changing value and preference to an uncertain future climate and economic conditions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roobavannan, Mahendran; Kandasamy, Jaya; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuththu; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2016-04-01

    Water-human systems are coupled and display co-evolutionary dynamics influenced by society's values and preference. This has been observed in the Murrumbidgee basin, Australia where water usage initially focused on agriculture production and until mid-1990's favoured agriculture. This turned around as society became more concerned about the degradation of ecosystems and ultimately water was reallocated back towards the environment. This new water management adversely impacted the agriculture sector and created economic stress in the basin. The basin communities were able to transform and cope with water allocation favouring the environment through sectoral transformation facilitated by movement of capital in a free economy, supported by appropriate strategies and funding. This was helped by the adaptive capacity of people through reemployment in other economic sectors of the basin economy, unemployment for a period of time and migration out of the basin, and crop diversification. This study looks to the future and focuses on how water managers could be informed and prepare for un-foreseen issues coming out of societies changing values and preferences and emerging as different systems in the basin interact with each other at different times and speed. The issues of this type that concern the Murray Darling Basin Authority include a renewed focus and priority on food production due to food scarcity; increased impact and frequency of natural disasters (eg. climate change); regional economic diversification due to the growth of peri-urban development in the basin; institutional capacity for water reform due to new political paradigms (eg. new water sharing plans); and improvement in science and technology (eg. farm practices, water efficiency, water reuse). To undertake this, the study uses a coupled socio-hydrological dynamical system that model the major drivers of changing economic conditions, society values and preference, climatic condition and science and

  3. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

  4. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    An increased uptake of alternative low or non-CO2 emitting energy sources is one of the key priorities for policy makers to mitigate the effects of environmental change. Relatively little work has been undertaken on the mitigation potential of Ground Coupled Heat Pumps (GCHPs) despite the fact that a GCHP could significantly reduce CO2 emissions from heating systems. It is predicted that under climate change the most probable scenario is for UK temperatures to increase and for winter rainfall to become more abundant; the latter is likely to cause a general rise in groundwater levels. Summer rainfall may reduce considerably, while vegetation type and density may change. Furthermore, recent studies underline the likelihood of an increase in the number of heat waves. Under such a scenario, GCHPs will increasingly be used for cooling as well as heating. These factors will affect long-term performance of horizontal GCHP systems and hence their economic viability and mitigation potential during their life span ( 50 years). The seasonal temperature differences encountered in soil are harnessed by GCHPs to provide heating in the winter and cooling in the summer. The performance of a GCHP system will depend on technical factors (heat exchanger (HE) type, length, depth, and spacing of pipes), but also it will be determined to a large extent by interactions between the below-ground parts of the system and the environment (atmospheric conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics). Depending on the balance between extraction and rejection of heat from and to the ground, the soil temperature in the neighbourhood of the HE may fall or rise. The GROMIT project (GROund coupled heat pumps MITigation potential), funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (UK), is a multi-disciplinary research project, in collaboration with EarthEnergy Ltd., which aims to quantify the CO2 mitigation potential of horizontal GCHPs. It considers changing environmental conditions and combines

  5. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  6. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  7. Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

    PubMed

    Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

    2017-03-24

    Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. Past and Future Climate Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J. )

    2001-10-01

    Climate change is again in the news. The failure of the recent sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) to agree on terms for the Kyoto Protocol the future of climate policy remains uncertain. It is important to be clear on where efforts need to be focused (in addition to how much effort is required, which would require a separate discussion). The recent paper by Hansen et al. has created some debate and controversy along these lines. In this paper, the authors argue that recent climate changes have been caused largely by non-CO2 greenhouse gases and that climate change over the next fifty years can be limited by focusing not only on carbon dioxide but on non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols. This paper will present an overview of these issues. A few of these points were also discussed in a recent commentary in Science magazine and are not repeated at length here. The discussion below will first address attribution of past climate changes, the radiatively important substances that will drive future climate change, and the mitigation of climate change.Journal name is WRONG. Interface does not allow me to type in correct name. Correct name should be''Physics and Society''.

  9. Distributional potential of the Triatoma brasiliensis species complex at present and under scenarios of future climate conditions

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The Triatoma brasiliensis complex is a monophyletic group, comprising three species, one of which includes two subspecific taxa, distributed across 12 Brazilian states, in the caatinga and cerrado biomes. Members of the complex are diverse in terms of epidemiological importance, morphology, biology, ecology, and genetics. Triatoma b. brasiliensis is the most disease-relevant member of the complex in terms of epidemiology, extensive distribution, broad feeding preferences, broad ecological distribution, and high rates of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi; consequently, it is considered the principal vector of Chagas disease in northeastern Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distributions of all members of the complex, and evaluated the potential for suitable adjacent areas to be colonized; we also present first evaluations of potential for climate change-mediated distributional shifts. Models were developed using the GARP and Maxent algorithms. Results Models for three members of the complex (T. b. brasiliensis, N = 332; T. b. macromelasoma, N = 35; and T. juazeirensis, N = 78) had significant distributional predictivity; however, models for T. sherlocki and T. melanica, both with very small sample sizes (N = 7), did not yield predictions that performed better than random. Model projections onto future-climate scenarios indicated little broad-scale potential for change in the potential distribution of the complex through 2050. Conclusions This study suggests that T. b. brasiliensis is the member of the complex with the greatest distributional potential to colonize new areas: overall; however, the distribution of the complex appears relatively stable. These analyses offer key information to guide proactive monitoring and remediation activities to reduce risk of Chagas disease transmission. PMID:24886587

  10. The futures of climate engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Low, Sean

    2017-01-01

    This piece examines the need to interrogate the role of the conceptions of the future, as embedded in academic papers, policy documents, climate models, and other artifacts that serve as currencies of the science-society interface, in shaping scientific and policy agendas in climate engineering. Growing bodies of work on framings, metaphors, and models in the past decade serve as valuable starting points, but can benefit from integration with science and technology studies work on the sociology of expectations, imaginaries, and visions. Potentially valuable branches of work to come might be the anticipatory use of the future: the design of experimental spaces for exploring the future of an engineered climate in service of responsible research and innovation, and the integration of this work within the unfolding context of the Paris Agreement.

  11. Future local climate unlike currently observed anywhere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahinden, Fabienne; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

    2017-08-01

    The concept of spatial climate analogs, that is identifying a place with a present-day climate similar to the projections of a place of interest, is a promising method for visualizing and communicating possible effects of climate change. We show that when accounting for seasonal cycles of both temperature and precipitation, it is impossible to find good analogs for projections at many places across the world. For substantial land fractions, primarily in the tropics and subtropics, there are no analogs anywhere with current seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation matching their projected future conditions. This implies that these places experience the emergence of novel climates. For 1.5 °C global warming about 15% and for 2 °C warming about 21% of the global land is projected to experience novel climates, whereas for a 4 °C warming the corresponding novel climates may emerge on more than a third of the global land fraction. Similar fractions of today’s climates, mainly found in the tropics, subtropics and polar north, are anticipated to disappear in the future. Note that the exact quantification of the land fraction is sensitive to the threshold selection. Novel and disappearing climates may have serious consequences for impacts that are sensitive to the full seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation. For individual seasons, however, spatial analogs may still be a powerful tool for climate change communication.

  12. Will anticipated future climatic conditions affect belowground C utilization? - Insights into the role of microbial functional groups in a temperate heath/grassland.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Michelsen, Anders; Sárossy, Zsuzsa; Egsgaard, Helge; Kappel Schmidt, Inger; Jakobsen, Iver; Ambus, Per

    2013-04-01

    functional groups in their utilization of recently assimilated carbon. Particularly the negative effect of the future treatment combination (CO2×T×D) on actinomycetes activity was surprising. By means of activity patterns of gram-negative bacteria, we observed the fastest carbon turnover rate under elevated CO2, and the slowest under extended drought conditions. A changed soil microbial community in combination with altered activities of different microbial functional groups leads to the conclusion that carbon allocation belowground was different under ambient and future climatic conditions and indicated reduced utilization of soil organic matter in the future due to a change of actinomycetes abundance and activity.

  13. Projecting carbon footprint of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions with the integrated farm system model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Dairy farms are an important sector of Canadian agriculture, and there is an on-going effort to assess their environmental impact. In Canada, like many northern areas of the world, climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity. This will likely come along with changes in environme...

  14. Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Putnam, Hollie M; Gates, Ruth D

    2015-08-01

    Coral reefs are globally threatened by climate change-related ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). To date, slow-response mechanisms such as genetic adaptation have been considered the major determinant of coral reef persistence, with little consideration of rapid-response acclimatization mechanisms. These rapid mechanisms such as parental effects that can contribute to trans-generational acclimatization (e.g. epigenetics) have, however, been identified as important contributors to offspring response in other systems. We present the first evidence of parental effects in a cross-generational exposure to temperature and OA in reef-building corals. Here, we exposed adults to high (28.9°C, 805 µatm P(CO2)) or ambient (26.5°C, 417 µatm P(CO2)) temperature and OA treatments during the larval brooding period. Exposure to high treatment negatively affected adult performance, but their larvae exhibited size differences and metabolic acclimation when subsequently re-exposed, unlike larvae from parents exposed to ambient conditions. Understanding the innate capacity corals possess to respond to current and future climatic conditions is essential to reef protection and maintenance. Our results identify that parental effects may have an important role through (1) ameliorating the effects of stress through preconditioning and adaptive plasticity, and/or (2) amplifying the negative parental response through latent effects on future life stages. Whether the consequences of parental effects and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization are beneficial or maladaptive, our work identifies a critical need to expand currently proposed climate change outcomes for corals to further assess rapid response mechanisms that include non-genetic inheritance through parental contributions and classical epigenetic mechanisms.

  15. Climate change and health in Earth's future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

    2014-02-01

    Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

  16. Projected Future Climate Analogues and Climate "Velocities" in North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    Future climate changes may have significant effects on many North American ecosystems. One way of assessing the potential impacts of future climate change is to use future climate analogues of present climate to evaluate the spatial extent and rates of future climate change. We used a set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future climate simulations (2006-2100) produced under representative concentration pathway scenario RCP8.5. We regridded these data to a 10-km equal-area grid of North America. Modern climate data (1961-1990 30-year mean) were interpolated to the same 10-km grid. The projected future climate data were analyzed using 10-year mean values of monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation and a set of derived annual bioclimatic variables (e.g., growing degree days) considered to be ecologically significant. Potential future climate analogues were calculated for each grid cell using Euclidean distances to identify similar climates occurring elsewhere in North America. We identify regions that are projected to retain climates similar to present in the future (e.g., parts of the southeastern United States) and regions where present climates are projected to become less common or to disappear in the future (e.g., high elevation sites in western North America). We also calculate the rates of change in locations of similar climates (i.e., climate analogue velocities) and compare our results with simulated paleoclimate velocities over the past 22 kyr (from TraCE-21ka transient climate simulations for 22 ka-present). We discuss the implications of these results for conservation and natural resource management in North America. We also describe a web application being developed to allow researchers, decision makers, and members of the public, to visualize, explore, and use the climate analogue data.

  17. Natural Climate Variability and Future Climate Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

    2013-12-01

    Individual beliefs about climate change and willingness-to-pay for its mitigation are influenced by local weather and climate. Large ensemble climate modeling experiments have demonstrated the large role natural variability plays in local weather and climate on a multidecadal timescale. Here we illustrate how if support for global climate policies and subsequent implementation of those policies are determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability could influence the timeline for implementation of emissions reduction policies by decades. The response of complex social systems to local and regional changes in weather and climate cannot be quantitatively predicted with confidence. Both the form and timing of the societal response can be affected by interactions between social systems and the physical climate system. Here, to illustrate one type of influence decadal natural variability can have on climate policy, we consider a simple example in which the only question is when, if ever, the different parties will support emissions reduction. To analyze the potential effect that unpredictable extreme events may have on the time to reach a global agreement on climate policy, we analyzed the output from a 40-member Community Climate System Model version 3 simulation ensemble to illustrate how local experiences might affect the timing of acceptance of strong climate policy measures. We assume that a nation's decision to take strong actions to abate emissions is contingent upon the local experiences of its citizens and then examine how the timelines for policy action may be influenced by variability in local weather. To illustrate, we assume that a social 'tipping point' is reached at the national level occurs when half of the population of a nation has experienced a sufficiently extreme event. If climate policies are driven by democratic consensus then variability in weather could result in significantly disparate times-to-action. For the top six CO2 emitters

  18. Projections of Future Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Cubasch, U.; Meehl , G.; Boer, G. J.; Stouffer, Ron; Dix, M.; Noda, A.; Senior, C. A.; Raper, S.; Yap, K. S.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Brinkop, S.; Claussen, M.; Collins, M.; Evans, J.; Fischer-Bruns, I.; Flato, G.; Fyfe, J. C.; Ganopolski, A.; Gregory, J. M.; Hu, Z. Z.; Joos, Fortunat; Knutson, T.; Knutti, R.; Landsea, C.; Mearns, L. O.; Milly, C.; Mitchell, J. F.; Nozawa, T.; Paeth, H.; Raisanen, J.; Sausen, R.; Smith, Steven J.; Stocker, T.; Timmermann, A.; Ulbrich, U.; Weaver, A.; Wegner, J.; Whetton, P.; Wigley, T. M.; Winton, M.; Zwiers, F.; Kim, J. W.; Stone, J.

    2001-10-01

    Contents: Executive Summary 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Climate and Climate Change 9.3 Projections of Climate Change 9.4 General Summary Appendix 9.1: Tuning of a Simple Climate Model toAOGCM Results References

  19. Climatic Conditions in Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kevan, Simon M.; Howes, John D.

    1980-01-01

    Presents an overview of research on the ways in which classroom thermal environment, lighting conditions, ion state, and electromagnetic and air pollution affect learning and the performance of students and teachers. (SJL)

  20. Climatic Conditions in Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kevan, Simon M.; Howes, John D.

    1980-01-01

    Presents an overview of research on the ways in which classroom thermal environment, lighting conditions, ion state, and electromagnetic and air pollution affect learning and the performance of students and teachers. (SJL)

  1. State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections

    PubMed Central

    Caballero, Rodrigo; Huber, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow “Earth system” feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or “Charney” climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature. PMID:23918397

  2. Impacts of long-range transport of global pollutants and precursor gases on U.S. air quality under future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Ho-Chun; Lin, Jintai; Tao, Zhining; Choi, Hyun; Patten, Kenneth; Kunkel, Kenneth; Xu, Min; Zhu, Jinhong; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Williams, Allen; Caughey, Michael; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Wang, Julian

    2008-10-01

    The U.S. air quality is impacted by emissions both within and outside the United States. The latter impact is manifested as long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants across the U.S. borders, which can be simulated by lateral boundary conditions (LBC) into a regional modeling system. This system consists of a regional air quality model (RAQM) that integrates local-regional source emissions and chemical processes with remote forcing from the LBC predicted by a nesting global chemical transport model (model for ozone and related chemical tracers (MOZART)). The present-day simulations revealed important LRT effects, varying among the five major regions with ozone problems, i.e., northeast United States, midwest United States, Texas, California, and southeast United States. To determine the responses of the LRT impacts to projected global climate and emissions changes, the MOZART and RAQM simulations were repeated for future periods (2048-2052 and 2095-2099) under two emissions scenarios (IPCC A1Fi and B1). The future U.S. air quality projected by the MOZART is less sensitive to the emissions scenarios than that simulated by the RAQM with or without incorporating the LRT effects via the LBC from the MOZART. The result of RAQM with the LRT effects showed that the southeast United States has the largest sensitivity of surface ozone mixing ratio to the emissions changes in the 2095-2099 climate (-24% to +25%) followed by the northeast and midwest United States. The net increase due to the LRT effects in 2095-2099 ranges from +4% to +13% in daily mean surface ozone mixing ratio and +4% to +11% in mean daily maximum 8-h average ozone mixing ratios. Correspondingly, the LRT effects in 2095-2099 cause total column O3 mixing ratio increases, ranging from +7% to +16%, and also 2 to 3 more days with the surface ozone exceeding the national standard. The results indicate that future U.S. air quality changes will be substantially affected by global emissions.

  3. Amblyomma ticks and future climate: Range contraction due to climate warming.

    PubMed

    Oliveira, Stefan Vilges de; Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Martins, Thiago Fernandes; Santos, Janduhy Pereira Dos; Labruna, Marcelo B; Gazeta, Gilberto Salles; Escobar, Luis E; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo

    2017-12-01

    Ticks of the Amblyomma cajennense species complex are important vectors of spotted fever in Latin America. Environmental conditions determine the geographic distribution of ticks, such that climate change could influence the distribution of tick-borne diseases. This study aimed to analyze the potential geographic distribution of A. cajennense complex ticks in a Brazil region under present-day and future climate models, assuming dispersal limitations and non-evolutionary adaptation of these tick populations to climate warming. Records of A. cajennense sensu stricto (s.s.) and Amblyomma sculptum were analyzed. Niche models were calibrated using Maxent considering climate variables for 1950-2000 and projecting models to conditions anticipated for 2050 and 2070 under two models of future climate (CCSM4 and HadGEM2-AO). Broad suitable areas for A. cajennense s.s. and A. sculptum were found in present-day climate models, but suitability was reduced when models were projected to future conditions. Our exploration of future climates showed that broad areas had novel climates not existing currently in the study region, including novel extremely high temperatures. Indeed, predicted suitability in these novel conditions would lead to biologically unrealistic results and therefore incorrect forecasts of future tick-distribution. Previous studies anticipating expansions of vectors populations due to climate change should be considered with caution as they assume that model extrapolation anticipates that species would evolve rapidly for adaptation to novel climatic conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on climate extreme indices in a multi-model experiment under present and future conditions (GLACE-CMIP5)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events can be directly influenced by land surface-atmosphere interactions. It is important to investigate how extreme events might change in the future and the role these interactions play in amplifying extremes. The data from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments (Seneviratne et al., 2013) provide a unique opportunity to examine the influence of soil moisture on extremes in transient climate simulations from a range of climate models. The extreme indices we use are defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and contain a range of indices based on daily minimum and maximum temperature as well as daily precipitation. The ETCCDI indices are available from observational datasets, reanalysis and as well as CMIP5 runs. Hence, these indices are widely used and can be compared to other sources. In this paper, we analyze the effects of land surface feedbacks on the extremes and their trends in the different global climate models. Seneviratne, S. I., et al. (2013). Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. GRL, 40(19), 5212-5217. doi:10.1002/grl.50956

  5. Nonglacial rapid climate events: past and future.

    PubMed

    Overpeck, J; Webb, R

    2000-02-15

    The paleoclimate record makes it clear that rapid climate shifts of the 20th century are only a subset of possible climate system behavior that might occur in the absence of glacial conditions, and that climatic surprises could be a challenge for society even in the absence of significant greenhouse warming.

  6. Climatic Change--Past, Present & Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindholm, Roy C.

    1976-01-01

    Presented is a review of studies investigating factors affecting climatic changes in the Earth's atmosphere--past, present, and future. Dating methods, particularly the Oxygen 18/16 method, are discussed. (SL)

  7. Climatic Change--Past, Present & Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindholm, Roy C.

    1976-01-01

    Presented is a review of studies investigating factors affecting climatic changes in the Earth's atmosphere--past, present, and future. Dating methods, particularly the Oxygen 18/16 method, are discussed. (SL)

  8. Climate Simulations of Past, Present and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    1999-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  9. Climate Simulations of Past, Present and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    1999-01-01

    The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

  10. Solar Influence on Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arsenovic, Pavle; Stenke, Andrea; Rozanov, Eugene; Peter, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Global warming is one of the main threats to mankind. There is growing evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have become the dominant factor, however natural factors such as solar variability cannot be neglected. Sun is a variable star; its activity varies in regular 11-years solar cycles. Longer periods of decreased solar activity are called Grand Solar Minima, which have stronger impact on terrestrial climate. Another natural factor related with solar activity are energetic particles. They can ionize neutral molecules in upper atmosphere and produce NOx and HOx which deplete ozone. We investigate the effect of proposed Grand Solar Minimum in 21st and 22nd century on terrestrial climate and ozone layer. The simulations are performed with different solar forcing scenarios for period of 200 years (2000-2200) using global chemistry-climate model coupled with ocean model (SOCOL-MPIOM). We also deal with problem of representation of middle range energy electrons (30-300 keV) in the model and investigation of their influence on climate.

  11. Climate Change and Future World

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-03-01

    the distribution of fish 8 species.37 Increasing ocean acidification is threatening coral reefs that play an important role in mitigating the...into space the power that has not been used. This enormous thermal machine, that is the climate system, is constituted by the atmosphere, oceans ...and extension of the Arctic ice and mountain glaciers in the northern hemisphere are reducing. According to the IPCC, the 5 Arctic Ocean could be

  12. Predicting the response of the Amazon rainforest to persistent drought conditions under current and future climates: a major challenge for global land surface models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joetzjer, E.; Delire, C.; Douville, H.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B.; Calvet, J. C.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Ferreira, L. V.; Meir, P.

    2014-12-01

    While a majority of global climate models project drier and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC (Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere Carbon Cycle) land surface model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different water stress functions (WSFs) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentrations, the increased water-use efficiency (WUE) mitigates the sensitivity of ISBACC to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulations improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed.

  13. Predicting the response of the Amazon rainforest to persistent drought conditions under current and future climates: a major challenge for global land surface models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joetzjer, E.; Delire, C.; Douville, H.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B.; Calvet, J. C.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Ferreira, L. V.; Meir, P.

    2014-08-01

    While a majority of Global Climate Models project dryer and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC Land Surface Model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent ThroughFall Exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different Water Stress Function (WSF) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentration, the increased Water Use Efficiency (WUE) mitigates the ISBACC's sensitivity to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulation improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed.

  14. Climate: Present and near Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avakyan, S.; Voronin, N.

    2009-04-01

    A novel radiooptical trigger mechanism is proposed in solar-terrestrial relations what allows revaluation of the role of the solar EUV/X-ray fluxes during flares and of the precipitating electron fluxes during geomagnetic storms. Our mechanism of influence of solar and geomagnetic activity on the formation of weather and climate changes consists of three stages. The first stage is an increase in generation of the microwave radiation which penetrates from the ionosphere to the earth surface. The microwave radiation arises from the transitions between Rydberg states which are exited by the energetic ionospheric electrons. The second stage is a change in the proportion of water vapour to water clusters caused by increased microwave radiation. The third stage is a change of the atmosphere transparency in the absorption bands of water vapour and clusters. The atmosphere transparency determines the fluxes of solar irradiance coming down as well as flux of the thermal radiation coming out from the underlying surface. These fluxes form the basis of the thermal balance and affect the weather and climate characteristics of the lower troposphere. This mechanism is involved into analysis of climate changes going on during the several past decades. It is supposed that climate during past decades (in the period of global warming)was determined by secular (about one hundred years and two hundred years) maxima of solar activity which took place in the middle of eighties. Since 1985 the total solar irradiance flux started decreasing with simultaneous decreasing of ionizing EUV and X-ray radiation. However the geomagnetic activity according to the aa-index kept growing till 2003. This growth (+ 0.3 % / year) was replace activity also started decreasing (- 6.7 % / year) only after 2003. Summation of contributions to generation of ionospheric microwave emission both for solar and geomagnetic activities places the data of crisis in atmospheric trends to 2000-2001. Since then the role

  15. Projecting the risk of future climate shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enfield, David B.; Cid-Serrano, Luis

    2006-06-01

    Recent research has shown that decadal-to-multidecadal (D2M) climate variability is associated with environmental changes that have important consequences for human activities, such as public health, water availability, frequency of hurricanes, and so forth. As scientists, how do we convert these relationships into decision support products useful to water managers, insurance actuaries, and others, whose principal interest lies in knowing when future climate regime shifts will likely occur that affect long-horizon decisions? Unfortunately, numerical models are far from being able to make deterministic predictions for future D2M climate shifts. However, the recent development of paleoclimate reconstructions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (Gray et al., [2004]) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); (MacDonald and Case, [2005]) give us a viable alternative: to estimate probability distribution functions from long climate index series that allow us to calculate the probability of future D2M regime shifts. In this paper, we show how probabilistic projections can be developed for a specific climate mode - the AMO as represented by the Gray et al. ([2004]) tree-ring reconstruction. The methods are robust and can be applied to any D2M climate mode for which a sufficiently long index series exists, as well as to the growing body of paleo-proxy reconstructions that have become available. The target index need not be a paleo-proxy calibrated against a climate index; it may profitably be calibrated against a specific resource of interest, such as stream flow or lake levels.

  16. Energy and future climate forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, J.A.; Scott, M.J.

    1987-06-01

    The ''greenhouse'' issue is a term used to refer to a physical phenomenon in which the presence of radiatively active gases in the atmosphere absorb infrared radiation escaping into space and thereby warm the surface of the earth. In the absence of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/), water vapor (H/sub 2/O), ozone (O/sub 3/), methane (CH/sub 4/), and nitrous oxide (N/sub 2/O), the earth's average surface temperature would be approximately zero degrees Fahrenheit rather than the 60 degrees F. that we observe. The greenhouse issue is a matter of increasing public concern because of the growing body of evidence that human activities are systematically altering the composition of the atmosphere. In 1800 the concentration of CO/sub 2/ was 280 parts per million volume (ppMv) (within an uncertainty range of 260--285 ppMv). In 1984 the average annual concentration measured at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii was 344 ppMv. The formulation of appropriate policy options to address the greenhouse issue depend on the accumulation of reliable information in four domains: emissions, atmospheric composition, climate, and consequences. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the current state of knowledge in the area of emissions. 30 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs.

  17. Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as

  18. Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change.

    PubMed

    Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2015-11-13

    Climate and carbon cycle are tightly coupled on many timescales, from interannual to multi-millennial timescales. Observations always evidence a positive feedback, warming leading to release of carbon to the atmosphere; however, the processes at play differ depending on the timescales. State-of-the-art Earth System Models now represent these climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, always simulating a positive feedback over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, although with substantial uncertainty. Recent studies now help to reduce this uncertainty. First, on short timescales, El Niño years record larger than average atmospheric CO2 growth rate, with tropical land ecosystems being the main drivers. These climate-carbon cycle anomalies can be used as emerging constraint on the tropical land carbon response to future climate change. Second, centennial variability found in last millennium records can be used to constrain the overall global carbon cycle response to climatic excursions. These independent methods point to climate-carbon cycle feedback at the low-end of the Earth System Models range, indicating that these models overestimate the carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. These new findings also help to attribute the historical land and ocean carbon sinks to increase in atmospheric CO2 and climate change.

  19. Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges.

    PubMed

    Alley, Richard B

    2003-09-15

    Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

  20. Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

    2016-04-01

    In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  1. Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

    1999-01-01

    We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

  2. Large scale groundwater flow and hexavalent chromium transport modeling under current and future climatic conditions: the case of Asopos River Basin.

    PubMed

    Dokou, Zoi; Karagiorgi, Vasiliki; Karatzas, George P; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P; Kalogerakis, Nicolas

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, high concentrations of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), have been observed in the groundwater system of the Asopos River Basin, raising public concern regarding the quality of drinking and irrigation water. The work described herein focuses on the development of a groundwater flow and Cr(VI) transport model using hydrologic, geologic, and water quality data collected from various sources. An important dataset for this goal comprised an extensive time series of Cr(VI) concentrations at various locations that provided an indication of areas of high concentration and also served as model calibration locations. Two main sources of Cr(VI) contamination were considered in the area: anthropogenic contamination originating from Cr-rich industrial wastes buried or injected into the aquifer and geogenic contamination from the leaching process of ophiolitic rocks. The aquifer's response under climatic change scenario A2 was also investigated for the next two decades. Under this scenario, it is expected that rainfall, and thus infiltration, will decrease by 7.7 % during the winter and 15 % during the summer periods. The results for two sub-scenarios (linear and variable precipitation reduction) that were implemented based on A2 show that the impact on the study aquifer is moderate, resulting in a mean level decrease less than 1 m in both cases. The drier climatic conditions resulted in higher Cr(VI) concentrations, especially around the industrial areas.

  3. Patterns of crop cover under future climates.

    PubMed

    Porfirio, Luciana L; Newth, David; Harman, Ian N; Finnigan, John J; Cai, Yiyong

    2017-04-01

    We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.5 and 8.5 by four global circulation models/earth system models from 2000 to 2100. We use Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, to project the future crop cover. Our results show that, at the global scale, increases and decreases in crop cover cancel each other out. Crop cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to be impacted more by future climate than the in Southern Hemisphere because of the disparity in the warming rate and precipitation patterns between the two Hemispheres. We found that crop cover in temperate regions is projected to decrease more than in tropical regions. We identified regions of concern and opportunities for climate change adaptation and investment.

  4. Simulating Everglades Carbon Fluxes and GHG Emission of Different Landscapes Under Present and Future Climate Conditions by Applying Community Land Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Y.; Gerber, S.

    2016-12-01

    Carbon flux in wetland distinguishes from that in other types of ecosystems due to special soil and hydrological processes. Understanding the dynamic of soil hydrology is necessary to explore the responses of the plants, the fate of massive carbon storage and greenhouse gas emissions under different climate conditions. However, contrary findings were published regarding the relationship between CO2 emission and water level variations. Both positive and negative conclusions were reached regarding the warming mitigation ability of wetland. By parameterizing the Community Land Model (CLM), our research focuses on simulating the CO2/CH4 fluxes of different landscapes in Everglades, a subtropical wetland in Florida, to explore the following questions: 1) Is it a sink or source for CO2? 2) How may the CO2/CH4 dynamics be altered with water table and soil water content? 3) What environmental factors mainly control CO2/CH4 process? 4) Does this ecosystem contribute or mitigate cliamte warming? 5) What is the difference between landscapes regarding the CO2/CH4 dynamic? We performed several simulations with CLM that address the variation of water table in soil layers and the elevated temperature to compare the impact on the carbon fluxes and GHG emission in the study area. Our results suggest the variation on water table depth has significant influence on the carbon cycle in Everglades. Deeper water table results in a higher CO2 but lower CH4 emission, partly due to the CH4 oxidization and the rapid decomposition of organic carbon. In the wet season, more CH4 is produced when the water table is shallower. Slightly elevated temperature causes a water loss through evapotranspiration which deepens the water table. However, the induced carbon loss is partly offset by the enhanced productivity of vegetation. Both long and short hydroperiod marshes are small carbon sinks in most of years but cannot mitigate the climate warming if considering CH4 emissions. Cypress swamp shows high

  5. Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change.

    PubMed

    Svenning, Jens-Christian; Sandel, Brody

    2013-07-01

    Near-future climate changes are likely to elicit major vegetation changes. Disequilibrium dynamics, which occur when vegetation comes out of equilibrium with climate, are potentially a key facet of these. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making accurate predictions, informing conservation planning, and understanding likely changes in ecosystem function on time scales relevant to society. However, many predictive studies have instead focused on equilibrium end-points with little consideration of the transient trajectories. We review what we should expect in terms of disequilibrium vegetation dynamics over the next 50-200 yr, covering a broad range of research fields including paleoecology, macroecology, landscape ecology, vegetation science, plant ecology, invasion biology, global change biology, and ecosystem ecology. The expected climate changes are likely to induce marked vegetation disequilibrium with climate at both leading and trailing edges, with leading-edge disequilibrium dynamics due to lags in migration at continental to landscape scales, in local population build-up and succession, in local evolutionary responses, and in ecosystem development, and trailing-edge disequilibrium dynamics involving delayed local extinctions and slow losses of ecosystem structural components. Interactions with habitat loss and invasive pests and pathogens are likely to further contribute to disequilibrium dynamics. Predictive modeling and climate-change experiments are increasingly representing disequilibrium dynamics, but with scope for improvement. The likely pervasiveness and complexity of vegetation disequilibrium is a major challenge for forecasting ecological dynamics and, combined with the high ecological importance of vegetation, also constitutes a major challenge for future nature conservation.

  6. Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are

  7. Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?

    PubMed

    Franklin, Janet; Davis, Frank W; Ikegami, Makihiko; Syphard, Alexandra D; Flint, Lorraine E; Flint, Alan L; Hannah, Lee

    2013-02-01

    Recent studies suggest that species distribution models (SDMs) based on fine-scale climate data may provide markedly different estimates of climate-change impacts than coarse-scale models. However, these studies disagree in their conclusions of how scale influences projected species distributions. In rugged terrain, coarse-scale climate grids may not capture topographically controlled climate variation at the scale that constitutes microhabitat or refugia for some species. Although finer scale data are therefore considered to better reflect climatic conditions experienced by species, there have been few formal analyses of how modeled distributions differ with scale. We modeled distributions for 52 plant species endemic to the California Floristic Province of different life forms and range sizes under recent and future climate across a 2000-fold range of spatial scales (0.008-16 km(2) ). We produced unique current and future climate datasets by separately downscaling 4 km climate models to three finer resolutions based on 800, 270, and 90 m digital elevation models and deriving bioclimatic predictors from them. As climate-data resolution became coarser, SDMs predicted larger habitat area with diminishing spatial congruence between fine- and coarse-scale predictions. These trends were most pronounced at the coarsest resolutions and depended on climate scenario and species' range size. On average, SDMs projected onto 4 km climate data predicted 42% more stable habitat (the amount of spatial overlap between predicted current and future climatically suitable habitat) compared with 800 m data. We found only modest agreement between areas predicted to be stable by 90 m models generalized to 4 km grids compared with areas classified as stable based on 4 km models, suggesting that some climate refugia captured at finer scales may be missed using coarser scale data. These differences in projected locations of habitat change may have more serious implications than net

  8. Ocean climate and seal condition.

    PubMed

    Le Boeuf, Burney J; Crocker, Daniel E

    2005-03-28

    The condition of many marine mammals varies with fluctuations in productivity and food supply in the ocean basin where they forage. Prey is impacted by physical environmental variables such as cyclic warming trends. The weaning weight of northern elephant seal pups, Mirounga angustirostris, being closely linked to maternal condition, indirectly reflects prey availability and foraging success of pregnant females in deep waters of the northeastern Pacific. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of ocean climate on foraging success in this deep-diving marine mammal over the course of three decades, using cohort weaning weight as the principal metric of successful resource accrual. The mean annual weaning weight of pups declined from 1975 to the late 1990s, a period characterized by a large-scale, basin-wide warm decadal regime that included multiple strong or long-duration El Niños; and increased with a return to a cool decadal regime from about 1999 to 2004. Increased foraging effort and decreased mass gain of adult females, indicative of reduced foraging success and nutritional stress, were associated with high ocean temperatures. Despite ranging widely and foraging deeply in cold waters beyond coastal thermoclines in the northeastern Pacific, elephant seals are impacted significantly by ocean thermal dynamics. Ocean warming redistributes prey decreasing foraging success of females, which in turn leads to lower weaning mass of pups. Annual fluctuations in weaning mass, in turn, reflect the foraging success of females during the year prior to giving birth and signals changes in ocean temperature cycles.

  9. Present weather and climate: evolving conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoerling, Martin P; Dettinger, Michael; Wolter, Klaus; Lukas, Jeff; Eischeid, Jon K.; Nemani, Rama; Liebmann, Brant; Kunkel, Kenneth E.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter assesses weather and climate variability and trends in the Southwest, using observed climate and paleoclimate records. It analyzes the last 100 years of climate variability in comparison to the last 1,000 years, and links the important features of evolving climate conditions to river flow variability in four of the region’s major drainage basins. The chapter closes with an assessment of the monitoring and scientific research needed to increase confidence in understanding when climate episodes, events, and phenomena are attributable to human-caused climate change.

  10. How Novel are 21st Century Climates? A Global Assessment of Future Climates and their Analogs Back Through the Eocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, K. D.; Williams, J. W.; Jackson, S. T.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is a multivariate process, where changes in the environmental space of a location will likely drive biotic responses of the flora and fauna that inhabit the region. In the face of a rapidly changing climate it is important to understand what the future may hold for ecosystems. One method commonly applied to understand how dissimilar future climates will be relative to the modern period is no-analog analysis. This has been done for 21st century climates relative to the modern period, but has not been extended through the paleorecord. Using HadCM3, CCSM3 TraCE-21ka, PMIP3, PlioMIP2 and EoMIP climate simulations, we assess global and regional climatic novelty by identifying the closest analogs in these periods for both future (21st century) and modern climates. This baseline offers a full range climate space with significant overlap of modern and future projected climates, and allows us to assess both emergences and disappearances of analog climate conditions throughout the past. This extended baseline includes past glacial and interglacial climates, as well as past earth warm periods. Past earth warm periods such as the middle to late Pliocene and the early Eocene may be most similar to projections of future climate, so it is important to evaluate our understanding of these global climates. Here we calculate dissimilarity to quantify novelty and no-analog conditions using the Standardized Euclidian Distance, as well as the Mahalanobis distance. Our work shows that nearest climate analogs for the modern period, as well as future climates, existed and disappeared during past warm periods. These results suggest that though climate change may be regionally novel relative to the modern period for some locations, analogs do exist through the paleorecord which in some cases reduce novelty. Nevertheless, novelty remains high in some locations suggesting that some future climates may be unprecedented.

  11. Prescient health care and future climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hayes, R.L.; Hussain, S.T.

    1997-12-31

    For several years, a concerted effort has been underway to focus research attention upon the interplay between public health and the changing climate. In particular, this environmental health research has established that climate change, including global warming, will degrade or transform ecosystems and will adversely influence public health. Global human health will be affected in ways that differ from local toxicological and microbiological processes with which we are familiar. Also, clinical manifestations of these health effects will be both immediate and delayed. Research has indicated that human populations, faced with an inhospitable and intolerable climate, have two short term options humans may migrate to other more agreeable climates or may utilize adaptation strategies to offset harsh environmental conditions. Otherwise, we face mounting physiological stresses, risks of protracted illness, or the likelihood of death. Either of the former two viable options assumes that economic means are prioritized and that societal infrastructure exists to assure relief. Awareness and knowledge of existing conditions or climate-health developments are essential prerequisites for effective response to a changing environment.

  12. The Future of Climate Science (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bishop, R.

    2010-12-01

    High Performance Computing is currently deployed in several centers for climate research, but not at the levels needed to achieve substantial success on a global basis, given the complexity of the problem. A quantum leap in capabilities will be necessary to handle next-generation climate models that integrate newly emerging sciences, high-resolution grids, and voluminous observational data from satellites and sophisticated ground devices. Dr. Bishop will discuss efforts to build an International Centre for Earth Simulation (ICES) based in Switzerland that takes an holistic systems approach, and that has the competence and resources to achieve new insights in this new decade, and is capable to globally influence public policy with respect to weather, climate, environment, disaster risk reduction and socio-economic development. On this progressively crowded and fragile planet, such a capability will be invaluable, Bishop believes, if not imperative, for our long-term survival. ICES could serve as a test-bed for large scale public and private development planning. Decision makers could ask ‘what if’ questions for major construction projects (such as China’s Three Gorges Dam), and then interactively evaluate alternative scenarios. Likewise, ICES could help uncover the possible unintended consequences of climate remediation and adaptation strategies, geo-engineering ideas, CO2 sequestration, deep sea drilling, etc. ICES would be a resource for building more resilient societies in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters (such as flooding, extreme weather events and volcanic ash clouds), and therefore of great consequence to our future well-being. It would ultimately play a major role in the education and training of policy-makers, the public, and future Earth Scientists - in conjunction with the current national and regional centers.

  13. Positive climate feedback under future climate implied by multifactor experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beier, C.; van der Linden, L.; Ibrom, A.; Larsen, K. S.; Ambus, P.; Climaite Scientific Team

    2011-12-01

    Results after 2 years of a "full factor" climate change experiment in a semi natural shrubland ecosystem within the CLIMAITE project suggests that all three climate change factors warming, drought and elevated CO2 reduced the carbon sink strength of the ecosystem. In particular elevated CO2 stimulated the carbon loss from the ecosystem leading to a significant positive climate feedback. A fundamental question related to climate change concerns the overall biosphere-atmosphere feedback. Will terrestrial ecosystems mitigate climate change through increased plant derived uptake of CO2, or will they accelerate climate change through increased emission of CO2 from decomposition of organic matter? This fundamental question is key to understanding and predicting future climate change and the consequences for the globe. However, our knowledge in this field is still limited and experimental data is generally missing. The CLIMAITE experiment exposed a semi-natural Danish heathland ecosystem to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 - 510 ppm), warming (+1 oC), and extended summer drought (4-6 week precipitation removal) in all combinations to simulate a realistic climate scenario in Denmark in 2075. In total, the experiment provides a full-factorial design with 6 replicates of all eight combinations of D, T and CO2 and an untreated control for reference (A), i.e. N = 48. Details on the experimental setup are given by Mikkelsen et al. (2008). Generally, single factor treatments (i.e. CO2, warming or drought treatments alone) showed effects often in accordance with previous single factor studies, while, more interestingly, multifactor treatments often interacted generally leading to relatively small net effects of the full factor combined treatments relative to the control (Larsen et al., 2011). Warming and drought both reduced carbon uptake and stimulated carbon emissions slightly leading to a small and additive reduction in the carbon sink strength by these factors

  14. CLIMATE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY (CIRAQ): MODELING OZONE SENSITIVITIES TO FUTURE CLIMATE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Using global and regional modeling tools, predictions of future climate and ozone concentrations are developed for the continental United States. Results suggest that future changes in climate will contribute to an increase in ozone concentrations; however, the future changes in...

  15. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  16. Will climate change promote future invasions?

    PubMed

    Bellard, Celine; Thuiller, Wilfried; Leroy, Boris; Genovesi, Piero; Bakkenes, Michel; Courchamp, Franck

    2013-12-01

    Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Will climate change promote future invasions?

    PubMed Central

    Bellard, C.; Thuiller, W.; Leroy, B.; Genovesi, P.; Bakkenes, M.; Courchamp, F.

    2013-01-01

    Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the “100 of the world’s worst invasive species” defined by the IUCN, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity. PMID:23913552

  18. Applying climate service in "The Future Okavango" (TFO) project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Kriegsmann, Arne; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    The Okavango River Basin with the world's largest inland delta is a hotspot of future climate change. The river originates in the rainy Bié Plateau in Angola, touches the north-western part of Namibia with its savanna woodlands and terminates in a delta situated in the Kalahari Desert in Botswana. Accordingly, the basins climate is characterized by changing environmental conditions along the river and by relatively high temperatures leading to pronounced evaporation fluxes. The annual hydrological cycle of the area shows two extremes: seasonal flooding alternates with dry periods influencing water levels of the Okavango River in downstream regions. As the region strongly depends on the water resource of the Okavango River, possible changes of the climate are of uppermost importance and interest, because they affect all components of the hydrological cycle and thus the lives of the people living in a region of such unique natural characteristics. The project "The Future Okavango" (TFO), which covers Angola, Botswana and Namibia, aims at an improvement of knowledge based land use management within the Okavango River Basin. An important aspect of TFO is the application of a trans-disciplinary approach by involving relevant regional stakeholders on different scales from the three countries and the support of the already well established communication between science and decision makers in the region. In order to develop strategies for sustainable land management in the Okavango River Basin, decision makers need high resolution climate change information for the future. To generate regional climate change projections, regional climate models are used to downscale simulations created by global circulation models. Climate projections, however, contain various uncertainties which have to be considered and estimated. In the framework of TFO, the Climate Service Center (CSC) delivers dynamically downscaled climate data sets and climate change information on a high spatial

  19. Rainwater catchment system design using simulated future climate data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Corey D.; Bailey, Ryan T.; Arabi, Mazdak

    2015-10-01

    Rainwater harvesting techniques are used worldwide to augment potable water supply, provide water for small-scale irrigation practices, increase rainwater-use efficiency for sustained crop growth in arid and semi-arid regions, decrease urban stormwater flow volumes, and in general to relieve dependency on urban water resources cycles. A number of methods have been established in recent years to estimate reliability of rainwater catchment systems (RWCS) and thereby properly size the components (roof catchment area, storage tank size) of the system for a given climatic region. These methods typically use historical or stochastically-generated rainfall patterns to quantify system performance and optimally size the system, with the latter accounting for possible rainfall scenarios based on statistical relationships of historical rainfall patterns. To design RWCS systems that can sustainably meet water demand under future climate conditions, this paper introduces a method that employs climatic data from general circulation models (GCMs) to develop a suite of catchment area vs. storage size design curves that capture uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Monthly rainfall data for the 2010-2050 time period is statistically downscaled to daily values using a Markov chain algorithm, with results used only from GCMs that yield rainfall patterns that are statistically consistent with historical rainfall patterns. The process is demonstrated through application to two climatic regions of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in the western Pacific, wherein the majority of the population relies on rainwater harvesting for potable water supply. Through the use of design curves, communities can provide household RWCS that achieve a certain degree of storage reliability. The method described herein can be applied generally to any geographic region. It can be used to first, assess the future performance of existing household systems; and second, to design or modify systems

  20. The ozone-climate penalty: past, present, and future

    PubMed Central

    Rasmussen, D.J.; Hu, Jianlin; Mahmud, Abdullah; Kleeman, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase global mean temperatures leading to higher tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in already polluted regions, potentially eroding the benefits of expensive emission controls. The magnitude of the “O3-climate penalty” has generally decreased over the past three decades which makes future predictions for climate impacts on air quality uncertain. Researchers attribute historical reductions in the O3-climate penalty to reductions in NOx emissions, but have so far not extended this theory into a quantitative prediction for future effects. Here we show that a three-dimensional air quality model can be used to map the behavior of the O3-climate penalty under varying NOx and VOC emissions in both NOx-limited and NOx-saturated conditions in Central and Southern California, respectively. Simulations suggest that the planned emissions control program for O3 precursors will not diminish the O3-climate penalty to zero as some observational studies might imply. The results further demonstrate that in a NOx-limited air basin, NOx control strategies alone are sufficient to both decrease the O3-climate penalty and mitigate O3 pollution, while in a NOx-saturated air basin, a modified emissions control plan that carefully chooses reductions in both NOx and VOC emissions may be necessary to eliminate the O3-climate penalty while simultaneously reducing base case O3 concentrations to desired levels. Additional modeling is needed to determine the behavior of the O3-climate penalty as NOx and VOC emissions evolve in other regions. PMID:24187951

  1. The ozone-climate penalty: past, present, and future.

    PubMed

    Rasmussen, D J; Hu, Jianlin; Mahmud, Abdullah; Kleeman, Michael J

    2013-12-17

    Climate change is expected to increase global mean temperatures leading to higher tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in already polluted regions, potentially eroding the benefits of expensive emission controls. The magnitude of the "O3-climate penalty" has generally decreased over the past three decades, which makes future predictions for climate impacts on air quality uncertain. Researchers attribute historical reductions in the O3-climate penalty to reductions in NOx emissions but have so far not extended this theory into a quantitative prediction for future effects. Here, we show that a three-dimensional air quality model can be used to map the behavior of the O3-climate penalty under varying NOx and VOC emissions in both NOx-limited and NOx-saturated conditions in Central and Southern California, respectively. Simulations suggest that the planned emissions control program for O3 precursors will not diminish the O3-climate penalty to zero as some observational studies might imply. The results further demonstrate that in a NOx-limited air basin, NOx control strategies alone are sufficient to both decrease the O3-climate penalty and mitigate O3 pollution, while in a NOx-saturated air basin, a modified emissions control plan that carefully chooses reductions in both NOx and VOC emissions may be necessary to eliminate the O3-climate penalty while simultaneously reducing base case O3 concentrations to desired levels. Additional modeling is needed to determine the behavior of the O3-climate penalty as NOx and VOC emissions evolve in other regions.

  2. The future of energy and climate

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2016-07-12

    The talk will review some of the basic facts about the history and present status of the use of energy and its climatic consequences. It is clear that the world will have to change its way of energy production, the sooner the better. Because of the difficulty of storing electric energy, by far the best energy source for the future is thermal solar from the deserts, with overnight thermal storage. I will give some description of the present status of the technologies involved and end up with a pilot project for Europe and North Africa.

  3. The future of energy and climate

    SciTech Connect

    2009-08-04

    The talk will review some of the basic facts about the history and present status of the use of energy and its climatic consequences. It is clear that the world will have to change its way of energy production, the sooner the better. Because of the difficulty of storing electric energy, by far the best energy source for the future is thermal solar from the deserts, with overnight thermal storage. I will give some description of the present status of the technologies involved and end up with a pilot project for Europe and North Africa.

  4. Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections

    SciTech Connect

    Ashfaq, Moetasim; Skinner, Chris B; Cherkauer, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We use a quantile-based bias correction technique and a multi-member ensemble of the atmospheric component of NCAR CCSM3 (CAM3) simulations to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) biases on future climate change projections. The simulations, which cover 1977 1999 in the historical period and 2077 2099 in the future (A1B) period, use the CCSM3-generated SSTs as prescribed boundary conditions. Bias correction is applied to the monthly time-series of SSTs so that the simulated changes in SST mean and variability are preserved. Our comparison of CAM3 simulations with and without SST correction shows that the SST biases affect the precipitation distribution in CAM3 over many regions by introducing errors in atmospheric moisture content and upper-level (lower-level) divergence (convergence). Also, bias correction leads to significantly different precipitation and surface temperature changes over many oceanic and terrestrial regions (predominantly in the tropics) in response to the future anthropogenic increases in greenhouse forcing. The differences in the precipitation response from SST bias correction occur both in the mean and the percent change, and are independent of the ocean atmosphere coupling. Many of these differences are comparable to or larger than the spread of future precipitation changes across the CMIP3 ensemble. Such biases can affect the simulated terrestrial feedbacks and thermohaline circulations in coupled climate model integrations through changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean salinity. Moreover, biases in CCSM3-generated SSTs are generally similar to the biases in CMIP3 ensemble mean SSTs, suggesting that other GCMs may display a similar sensitivity of projected climate change to SST errors. These results help to quantify the influence of climate model biases on the simulated climate change, and therefore should inform the effort to further develop approaches for reliable climate change projection.

  5. Modelling of maize production in Croatia: present and future climate

    PubMed Central

    VUČETIĆ, V.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY Maize is one of the most important agricultural crops in Croatia, and was selected for research of the effect of climate warming on yields. The Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer model (DSSAT) is one of the most utilized crop–weather models in the world, and was used in this paper for the investigation of maize growth and production in the present and future climate. The impact of present climate on maize yield was studied using DSSAT 4.0 with meteorological data from the Zagreb–Maksimir station covering the period 1949–2004. Pedological, physiological and genetic data from a 1999 field maize experiment at the same location were added. The location is representative of the continental climate in central Croatia. The linear trends of model outputs and the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test indicate that the beginning of silking has advanced significantly by 1·4 days/decade since the mid-1990s, and maturity by 4·5 days/decade. It also shows a decrease in biomass by 122 kg/ha and in maize yield by 216 kg/ha in 10 years. Estimates of the sensitivity of maize growth and yield in future climates were made by changing the initial weather and CO2 conditions of the DSSAT 4.0 model according to the different climatic scenarios for Croatia at the end of the 21st century. Changed climate suggests increases in global solar radiation, minimal temperature and maximal temperature (×1·07, 2 and 4°C, respectively), but a decrease in the amount of precipitation (×0·92), compared with weather data from the period 1949–2004. The reduction of maize yield was caused by the increase in minimal and maximal temperature and the decrease in precipitation amount, related to the present climate, is 6, 12 and 3%, respectively. A doubling of CO2 concentration stimulates leaf assimilation, but maize yield is only 1% higher, while global solar radiation growth by 7% increases evapotranspiration by 3%. Simultaneous application of all these climate changes

  6. Climate Conditioning for the Learning Environment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perkins and Will, Architects, Chicago, IL.

    Discusses heating, cooling, and ventilation for the classroom in relationship to students' learning abilities. It is designed to assist school boards, administrators, architects and engineers in understanding the beneficial effects of total climate control, and in evaluating the climate conditioning systems available for schools. Discussion…

  7. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    PubMed

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  8. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Mosedale, Jonathan R.; Wilson, Robert J.; Maclean, Ilya M. D.

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions. PMID:26496127

  9. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    PubMed Central

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C.; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Harder, Jerald W.; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C.; Wood, Richard A.

    2015-01-01

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. PMID:26102364

  10. Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

    PubMed

    Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

    2015-06-23

    Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

  11. Prospects for future climate: A special US/USSR report on climate and climate change

    SciTech Connect

    MacCracken, M.C.; Budyko, M.I.; Hecht, A.D.; Izrael, Y.A.

    1990-01-01

    Starting with the US-USSR Agreement on Protection of the Environment signed in 1972, the two nations have cooperated in joint research on atmospheric and environmental problems. The result of these efforts has been an innovative approach to projecting future climate change based on what has been learned about past warm periods and what can be learned from models. The chapters in this document explore the following: past changes in climate, both paleoclimatology and changes in the recent past; changes in atmospheric composition; estimates of greenhouse-induced change including the use of both empirical methods and climate models; impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in the two countries; and prospects for future climate changes.

  12. Establishment of Aedes aegypti (L.) in mountainous regions in Mexico: Increasing number of population at risk of mosquito-borne disease and future climate conditions.

    PubMed

    Equihua, Miguel; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; Benítez, Griselda; Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Sandoval-Ruiz, César A; Mendoza-Palmero, Fredy S

    2017-02-01

    The study was conducted in the central region of Veracruz Mexico, in the metropolitan area of Xalapa. It is a mountainous area where Aedes aegypti (L.) is not currently endemic. An entomological survey was done along an elevation gradient using the Ae. aegypti occurrences at different life cycle stages. Seven sites were sampled and a total of 24 mosquito species were recorded: 9 species were found in urban areas, 18 in non-urban areas with remnant vegetation, and 3 occurred in both environments. Ae. aegypti was found only in the urban areas, usually below 1200m a.s.l., but in this study was recorded for the first time at 1420m a.s.l. These occurrences, together with additional distribution data in the state of Veracruz were used to developed species distribution models using Maxlike software in R to identify the current projected suitable areas for the establishment of this vector and the human populations that might be affected by dengue transmission at higher elevations. Its emergence in previously unsuitable places appears to be driven by both habitat destruction and biodiversity loss associated with biotic homogenization. A border study using data from the edges of the vector's distribution might allow sensitive monitoring to detect any changes in this mosquito's distribution pattern, and any changes in the anthropic drivers or climate that could increase transmission risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Future Climate Impacts on Bay Area Rangeland Forage Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaplin-Kramer, R.

    2011-12-01

    The San Francisco Bay Area is a highly heterogeneous region in climate, topography, and habitats, as well as in its political and economic interests. Downscaled projections of global climate models enable the fine-scale analysis necessary for conservation and climate adaptation planning across such a diverse area. Successful conservation strategies must consider various current and future competing demands for the land, and should pay special attention to the dominant non-urban land-use in the Bay Area: livestock grazing. Maintaining the viability of rangelands provides an economic incentive for the preservation of open space. Climate models suggest that forage production in Bay Area rangelands may be enhanced by future conditions in most years, at least in terms of peak standing crop. However, the timing of production is as important as its peak, and altered precipitation patterns could mean delayed germination, resulting in shorter growing seasons. An increase in the frequency of extremely dry years also increases the uncertainty of forage availability. These shifts in forage production will affect the economic viability of rangelands in the Bay Area.

  14. Freezing of Martian streams under climatic conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carr, M. H.

    1984-01-01

    The valley networks of Mars are widely believed to have formed at a time when climatic conditions on the planet were significantly different from those that currently prevail. This view arises from the following observations: (1) the valleys form integrated branching networks which suggests fluid drainage, and water is the most plausible fluid, (2) the present atmosphere contains only minute amounts of water, (3) the networks appear to be more akin to terrestrial valleys that are eroded by streams of modest discharges than features that form by catastrophic floods, and (4) small streams of water will rapidly freeze under present climatic conditions. Climatic conditions at the time of formation of the valleys are studied based on the assumption that they were cut by running water.

  15. Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm

    2016-07-01

    Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.

  16. Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Philip W; Cornwall, Christopher E; Davison, Andrew; Doney, Scott C; Fourquez, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Lima, Ivan D; McMinn, Andrew

    2016-08-01

    Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate-change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats - from short-lived phytoplankton to long-lived corals - in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate-change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate-change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate-change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate-change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO2 (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to

  17. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

  18. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

    PubMed

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-11-07

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

  19. Climate conditions in bedded confinement buildings

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Confinement buildings are utilized for finishing cattle to allow more efficient collection of animal waste and to buffer animals against adverse climatic conditions. Environmental data were obtained from a 29 m wide x 318 m long bedded confinement building with the long axis oriented east to west. T...

  20. Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.

    PubMed

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-11

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

  1. Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

    DOE PAGES

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-11

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950–1979more » having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less

  2. Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability

    SciTech Connect

    Dai, Aiguo

    2016-01-11

    The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.

  3. Evaluative Conditioning: Recent Developments and Future Directions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gast, Anne; Gawronski, Bertram; De Houwer, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Evaluative conditioning (EC) is generally considered to be one of the routes via which likes and dislikes are acquired. We identify recent trends in EC research and speculate about the topics that will dominate future research on EC. Many of the recent developments in EC research were shaped by functional definitions of EC that refer only to…

  4. Anticipating future landscape conditions: A case study

    Treesearch

    Bill McDonald

    2000-01-01

    Anticipating landscape conditions in the 21st century is a difficult, if not impossible task. Different people have different perceptions of what future landscapes should look like. One group of people, a group of ranchers in the Malpai Borderland Region of the southwestern United States, have come together to work with government agencies, universities, and...

  5. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  6. Considerations for Future Climate Data Stewardship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halem, M.; Nguyen, P. T.; Chapman, D. R.

    2009-12-01

    In this talk, we will describe the lessons learned based on processing and generating a decade of gridded AIRS and MODIS IR sounding data. We describe the challenges faced in accessing and sharing very large data sets, maintaining data provenance under evolving technologies, obtaining access to legacy calibration data and the permanent preservation of Earth science data records for on demand services. These lessons suggest a new approach to data stewardship will be required for the next decade of hyper spectral instruments combined with cloud resolving models. It will not be sufficient for stewards of future data centers to just provide the public with access to archived data but our experience indicates that data needs to reside close to computers with ultra large disc farms and tens of thousands of processors to deliver complex services on demand over very high speed networks much like the offerings of search engines today. Over the first decade of the 21st century, petabyte data records were acquired from the AIRS instrument on Aqua and the MODIS instrument on Aqua and Terra. NOAA data centers also maintain petabytes of operational IR sounders collected over the past four decades. The UMBC Multicore Computational Center (MC2) developed a Service Oriented Atmospheric Radiance gridding system (SOAR) to allow users to select IR sounding instruments from multiple archives and choose space-time- spectral periods of Level 1B data to download, grid, visualize and analyze on demand. Providing this service requires high data rate bandwidth access to the on line disks at Goddard. After 10 years, cost effective disk storage technology finally caught up with the MODIS data volume making it possible for Level 1B MODIS data to be available on line. However, 10Ge fiber optic networks to access large volumes of data are still not available from CSFC to serve the broader community. Data transfer rates are well below 10MB/s limiting their usefulness for climate studies. During

  7. Future of Condition Based Maintenance at Stennis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    George, Cory A.; Smith, Joshua W.; Ladner, Gina H.; Killam, Mike

    2015-01-01

    This study seeks to understand the current state of condition based maintenance (CBM) at Stennis Space Center and set a bench mark for the future expansion of the CBM program. Condition based maintenance is the idea of maintaining an asset upon decreasing performance or when a failure is impending instead of at some arbitrary time regardless of condition. Special attention was paid to remote sensing and monitoring of assets around the center to cut maintenance costs and extend overall operational lifetime of those assets. It was found that 55 percent of the categories of assets which could actually utilize a remote CBM program are currently being partially monitored. CBM solutions that have been investigated and proposed for future deployment cover areas such as building integrity, oil analysis, power line and water pipe inspection.

  8. Radiative Forcing and Climate Response: From Paleoclimate to Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldeira, K.; Cao, L.

    2011-12-01

    The concept of radiative forcing was introduced to allow comparison of climate effects of different greenhouse gases. In the classic view, radiative forcing is applied to the climate system and the climate responds to this forcing, approaching some equilibrium temperature change that is the product of the radiative forcing times the 'climate sensitivity' to radiative forcing. However, this classic view is oversimplified in several respects. Climate forcing and response often cannot be clearly separated. When carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, within days, the increased absorption of longwave radiation begins to warm the interior of the troposphere, affecting various tropospheric properties. Especially in the case of aerosols, it has been found that considering rapid tropospheric adjustment gives a better predictor of "equilibrium" climate change than does the classic definition of radiative forcing. Biogeochemistry also provides additional feedbacks on the climate system. It is generally thought that biogeochemistry helps diminish climate sensitivity to a carbon dioxide emission, since carbon dioxide tends to stimulate carbon dioxide uptake by land plants and the ocean. However, there is potential to destabilize carbon locked up in permafrost and at least some possibility to destabilize methane in continental shelf sediments. Furthermore, wetlands may provide a significant methane feedback. These and other possible biogeochemical feedbacks have the potential to greatly increase the sensitivity of the climate system to carbon dioxide emissions. As time scales extend out to millennia, the large ice sheets can begin to play an important role. In addition to affecting atmospheric flows by their sheer bulk, ice sheets tend to reflect a lot of energy to space. If carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere long enough, there is potential to melt back the large ice sheets, which would add additional warming to the climate system. It is likely that these millennial

  9. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  10. Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Williams, Jimmy R.

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to

  11. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

    PubMed

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

  12. Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge, relative changes in runoff using predicted future climate conditions were estimated over different biophysical areas for the CONterminous U.S. (CONUS). Runoff was estimated using the Curve Number (CN) developed by the USDA Soil Conservation Service (USDA, 1986). A seamless gridded dataset representing a CN for existing land use/land cover (LULC) across the CONUS was used along with two different storm event grids created specifically for this effort. The two storm event grids represent a 2- and a 100-year, 24-hour storm event under current climate conditions. The storm event grids were generated using a compilation of county-scale Texas USGS Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data (provided by William Asquith, USGS, Lubbock, Texas), and NOAA Atlas-2 and NOAA Atlas-14 gridded data sets. Future CN runoff was predicted using extreme storm events grids created using a method based on Kao and Ganguly (2011) where precipitation extremes reflect changes in saturated water vapor pressure of the atmosphere in response to temperature changes. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship establishes that the total water vapor mass of fully saturated air increases with increasing temperature, leading to

  13. Climate services: Lessons learned and future prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brasseur, Guy P.; Gallardo, Laura

    2016-03-01

    This perspective paper reviews progress made in the last decades to enhance the communication and use of climate information relevant to the political and economic decision process. It focuses, specifically, on the creation and development of climate services, and highlights a number of difficulties that have limited the success of these services. Among them are the insufficient awareness by societal actors of their vulnerability to climate change, the lack of relevant products and services offered by the scientific community, the inappropriate format in which the information is provided, and the inadequate business model adopted by climate services. The authors suggest that, to be effective, centers should host within the same center a diversity of staff including experts in climate science, specialists in impact, adaptation, and vulnerability, representatives of the corporate world, agents of the public service as well as social managers and communication specialists. The role and importance of environmental engineering is emphasized.

  14. Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

    2017-01-01

    Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species’ suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain

  15. Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Escobar, Luis E; Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J; Phelps, Nicholas B D

    2017-01-01

    Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species' suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain.

  16. Vulnerability of landscape carbon fluxes to future climate and fire in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Treesearch

    Erica A. H. Smithwick; Anthony L. Westerling; Monica G. Turner; William H. Romme; Michael G. Ryan

    2011-01-01

    More frequent fires under climate warming are likely to alter terrestrial carbon (C) stocks by reducing the amount of C stored in biomass and soil. However, the thresholds of fire frequency that could shift landscapes from C sinks to C sources under future climates are not known. We used the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) as a case study to explore the conditions...

  17. Changes of Mediterranean cyclones in the future climate employing high resolution climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Kouroutzoglou, J.; Keay, K.; Simmonds, I.; Giannakopoulos, C. A.; Brikolas, V.

    2011-12-01

    A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of Mediterranean cyclones, including temporal and spatial variations of frequency of cyclonic tracks, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the MPI-HH regional coupled climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is employed consisting of the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO), the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ocean model (MPI-OM) and the Hydrological Discharge Model (HD Model). A 25 km resolution domain is established on a rotated latitude-longitude coordinate system, while the physical parameterizations are taken from the global climate model ECHAM-4. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. The model results for the present climate are evaluated against ERA-40 Reanalysis (available through ECMWF), for the period 1962-2001. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with

  18. Climate Change Impacts on Forest Succession and Future Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohan, J. E.; Melillo, J. M.; Clark, J. S.; Schlesinger, W. H.

    2012-12-01

    Change in ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics with forest succession is a long-studied topic in ecology, and secondary forests currently comprise a significant proportion of the global land base. Although mature forests are generally more important for conserving species and habitats, early successional trees and stands typically have higher rates of productivity, including net ecosystem productivity (NEP), which represents carbon available for sequestration. Secondary forests undergoing successional development are thus major players in the current global carbon cycle, yet how forests will function in the future under warmer conditions with higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations is unknown. Future forest C dynamics will depend, in part, on future species composition. Data from "Forests of the Future" research in a number of global change experiments provide insights into how forests may look in terms of dominant species composition, and thus function, in a future world. Studies at Free-Air Carbon Dioxide (FACE) experiments at Duke Forest and other facilities, plus climate warming experiments such as those at the Harvard Forest, suggest a common underlying principle of vegetation responses to environmental manipulation: Namely, that shade-tolerant woody species associating with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi show greater growth stimulation than ectomycorrhizal-associating (ECM) trees which are more common in temperate and boreal forests (Fig. 1 of relative growth rates standardized by pre-treatment rates). This may be due in part to the role of AM fungi in obtaining soil phosphorus and inorganic forms of nitrogen for plant associates. In combination, these results suggest a shift in future forest composition towards less-productive tree species that generally acquire atmospheric CO2 at lower annual rates, as well as a competitive advantage extended to woody vines such as poison ivy. Due to higher atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, forests of the

  19. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    PubMed

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  20. Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China

    PubMed Central

    Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

    2015-01-01

    China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world’s population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China’s current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country’s capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future. PMID:26371017

  1. Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China.

    PubMed

    Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

    2015-09-07

    China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world's population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China's current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country's capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.

  2. Extreme Rivers for Future Climates - Simulation Using Spatial Weather Generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, Leszek; Kosierb, Ryszard; Iwański, Sławomir; Jelonek, Leszek

    2014-05-01

    In this paper an application of spatial weather generator for estimation of probability distributions changes of river flows for selected climate change scenarios and different time horizons are presented. The main studies for the Kaczawa river basin located in Southwest region of Poland are carried out. For the estimation of probability distribution river flow, daily data of SR solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and total precipitation were obtained for sixteen stations of hydrological network from Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. In addition, daily data of flows from 6 closing water-gauges (partial catchments) were collected. Idea of flow simulation in the Kaczawa river catchment for future climate conditions given by different scenario shall be presented in the paper. First, on the basis of 25-years data series (1981-2005) for 16 stations of meteorological network within or around the Kaczawa river catchment basic climatology characteristics required by weather generator are computed. Then, spatial correlations between variables and stations are added to the characteristics. Next, on the basis of information coming from three climate change scenarios (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) for years 2040, 2060 and 2080 basic climatology characteristics are modified. Then, spatial weather generator SWGEN is used to produce 500 years of synthetic data for 16 stations, given time horizon and scenario. The year 2000 as the background of potential changes in river flow is used together with 500 years of synthetic data. Next, generated data are applied to hydrological model Mike SHE to simulate daily flows for closing water-gauges. The flow are evaluated with different temporal step and characterized by pdf functions. The application of spatial weather generator SWGEN combined with hydrological rainfall-runoff model (Mike SHE Ed. 2008) and climate change scenario, gives various possibilities to study changes in the river catchment coming up to 60

  3. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  4. Secondary calcification and dissolution respond differently to future ocean conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silbiger, N. J.; Donahue, M. J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change threatens both the accretion and erosion processes that sustain coral reefs. Secondary calcification, bioerosion, and reef dissolution are integral to the structural complexity and long-term persistence of coral reefs, yet these processes have received less research attention than reef accretion by corals. In this study, we use climate scenarios from RCP 8.5 to examine the combined effects of rising ocean acidity and sea surface temperature (SST) on both secondary calcification and dissolution rates of a natural coral rubble community using a flow-through aquarium system. We found that secondary reef calcification and dissolution responded differently to the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature. Calcification had a non-linear response to the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature: the highest calcification rate occurred slightly above ambient conditions and the lowest calcification rate was in the highest temperature-pCO2 condition. In contrast, dissolution increased linearly with temperature-pCO2 . The rubble community switched from net calcification to net dissolution at +271 μatm pCO2 and 0.75 °C above ambient conditions, suggesting that rubble reefs may shift from net calcification to net dissolution before the end of the century. Our results indicate that (i) dissolution may be more sensitive to climate change than calcification and (ii) that calcification and dissolution have different functional responses to climate stressors; this highlights the need to study the effects of climate stressors on both calcification and dissolution to predict future changes in coral reefs.

  5. Secondary calcification and dissolution respond differently to future ocean conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silbiger, N. J.; Donahue, M. J.

    2014-09-01

    Climate change threatens both the accretion and erosion processes that sustain coral reefs. Secondary calcification, bioerosion, and reef dissolution are integral to the structural complexity and long-term persistence of coral reefs, yet these processes have received less research attention than reef accretion by corals. In this study, we use climate scenarios from RCP8.5 to examine the combined effects of rising ocean acidity and SST on both secondary calcification and dissolution rates of a natural coral rubble community using a flow-through aquarium system. We found that secondary reef calcification and dissolution responded differently to the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature. Calcification had a non-linear response to the combined effect of pCO2-temperature: the highest calcification rate occurred slightly above ambient conditions and the lowest calcification rate was in the highest pCO2-temperature condition. In contrast, dissolution increased linearly with pCO2-temperature. The rubble community switched from net calcification to net dissolution at +272 μatm pCO2 and 0.84 °C above ambient conditions, suggesting that rubble reefs may shift from net calcification to net dissolution before the end of the century. Our results indicate that dissolution may be more sensitive to climate change than calcification, and that calcification and dissolution have different functional responses to climate stressors, highlighting the need to study the effects of climate stressors on both calcification and dissolution to predict future changes in coral reefs.

  6. The impact of future climate on historic interiors.

    PubMed

    Lankester, Paul; Brimblecombe, Peter

    2012-02-15

    The socio-economic significance of climate change is widely recognised. However, its potential to affect our cultural heritage has not been discussed in detail (i.e. not explicit in IPCC 4) even though the cultural impacts of future outdoor climate have been the focus of some European Commission projects (e.g. NOAH'S ARK) and World Heritage Centre reports. Recently there have been a few projects that have examined the changing environmental threats to tangible heritage indoors (e.g. Preparing Historic Collections for Climate Change and Climate for Culture). Here we predict future indoor temperature and humidity, and damage arising from changes to climate in historic rooms in Southern England with little climate control, using simple building simulations coupled with high resolution (~5 km) climate predictions. The calculations suggest an increase in indoor temperature over the next century that is slightly less than that outdoors. Annual relative humidity shows little change, but the seasonal cycles suggest drier summers and slightly damper winters indoors. Damage from mould growth and pests is likely to increase in the future, while humidity driven dimensional change to materials (e.g. wood) should decrease somewhat. The results allow collection managers to prepare for the impact of long-term climate change, putting strategic measures in place to prevent increased damage, and thus preserve our heritage for future generations.

  7. Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  8. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

  9. Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urban, Nathan M.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sriver, Ryan L.; Keller, Klaus

    2014-04-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity measures the long-term response of surface temperature to changes in atmospheric CO2. The range of climate sensitivities in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report is unchanged from that published almost 30 years earlier in the Charney Report. We conduct perfect model experiments using an energy balance model to study the rate at which uncertainties might be reduced by observation of global temperature and ocean heat uptake. We find that a climate sensitivity of 1.5°C can be statistically distinguished from 3°C by 2030, 3°C from 4.5°C by 2040, and 4.5°C from 6°C by 2065. Learning rates are slowest in the scenarios of greatest concern (high sensitivities), due to a longer ocean response time, which may have bearing on wait-and-see versus precautionary mitigation policies. Learning rates are optimistic in presuming the availability of whole ocean heat data but pessimistic by using simple aggregated metrics and model physics.

  10. Climate change as a driver for future human migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, M.; Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

    2016-12-01

    Human migration is driven by a multitude of factors, both socioeconomic and environmental. However, as impacts of anthropogenic climate change emerge and grow, it is widely conjectured that climate change will induce migration of human populations from areas that are adversely affected by climate change to areas that are less adversely or positively affected by climate change. Both low- and high-frequency climate changes have been empirically linked to migration in areas across the globe, but there has been little global-scale quantitative analysis projecting the scale and geography of climate-motivated migration. Considering temperature and precipitation in isolation from all other factors, here we project climate-driven impacts on the areal-density of human population. From this, we infer potential destinations and origins for the climate-motivated migration. Our results indicate that tropical and sub-tropical countries are the largest likely sources of migrants, with India being the country with the greatest number of potential climate emigrants. Global warming has the potential to motivate hundreds of millions of people to migrate in the coming decades, largely from warm tropical and subtropical countries to cooler temperate countries. Migration decisions will depend on many factors beyond climate; nevertheless our work establishes a foundation for quantifying future climate-motivated migration that can act as a starting point of more comprehensive assessments. The large number of potential climate migrants indicated by our analyses provides additional incentive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, take adaptive measures, and carefully consider migration policy.

  11. Coupled Climate Model Appraisal a Benchmark for Future Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, T J; AchutaRao, K; Bader, D; Covey, C; Doutriaux, C M; Fiorino, M; Gleckler, P J; Sperber, K R; Taylor, K E

    2005-08-22

    The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has produced an extensive appraisal of simulations of present-day climate by eleven representative coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) which were developed during the period 1995-2002. Because projections of potential future global climate change are derived chiefly from OAGCMs, there is a continuing need to test the credibility of these predictions by evaluating model performance in simulating the historically observed climate. For example, such an evaluation is an integral part of the periodic assessments of climate change that are reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The PCMDI appraisal thus provides a useful benchmark for future studies of this type. The appraisal mainly analyzed multi-decadal simulations of present-day climate by models that employed diverse representations of climate processes for atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land, as well as different techniques for coupling these components (see Table). The selected models were a subset of those entered in phase 2 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2, Covey et al. 2003). For these ''CMIP2+ models'', more atmospheric or oceanic variables were provided than the minimum requirements for participation in CMIP2. However, the appraisal only considered those climate variables that were supplied from most of the CMIP2+ models. The appraisal focused on three facets of the simulations of current global climate: (1) secular trends in simulation time series which would be indicative of a problematical ''coupled climate drift''; (2) comparisons of temporally averaged fields of simulated atmospheric and oceanic climate variables with available observational climatologies; and (3) correspondences between simulated and observed modes of climatic variability. Highlights of these climatic aspects manifested by different CMIP2+ simulations are briefly discussed here.

  12. Model estimates of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea in the contemporary and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryabchenko, V. A.; Karlin, L. N.; Isaev, A. V.; Vankevich, R. E.; Eremina, T. R.; Molchanov, M. S.; Savchuk, O. P.

    2016-01-01

    The St. Petersburg Baltic eutrophication model (SPBEM) is used to assess the ecological condition of the sea under possible changes in climate and nutrient loads in the 21st century. According to model estimates, in the future climate water quality will worsen, compared to modern conditions. This deterioration is stronger in the climate warming scenario with a stronger change in future near-surface air temperature. In the considered scenarios of climate change, climate warming will lead to an increase in the area of anoxic and hypoxic zones. Reduction of nutrient loading, estimated in accordance with the Baltic Sea Action Plan, will only be able to partially compensate for the negative effects of global warming.

  13. Future climate stimulates population out-breaks by relaxing constraints on reproduction

    PubMed Central

    Heldt, Katherine A.; Connell, Sean D.; Anderson, Kathryn; Russell, Bayden D.; Munguia, Pablo

    2016-01-01

    When conditions are stressful, reproduction and population growth are reduced, but when favourable, reproduction and population size can boom. Theory suggests climate change is an increasingly stressful environment, predicting extinctions or decreased abundances. However, if favourable conditions align, such as an increase in resources or release from competition and predation, future climate can fuel population growth. Tests of such population growth models and the mechanisms by which they are enabled are rare. We tested whether intergenerational increases in population size might be facilitated by adjustments in reproductive success to favourable environmental conditions in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Herbivorous amphipod populations responded to future climate by increasing 20 fold, suggesting that future climate might relax environmental constraints on fecundity. We then assessed whether future climate reduces variation in mating success, boosting population fecundity and size. The proportion of gravid females doubled, and variance in phenotypic variation of male secondary sexual characters (i.e. gnathopods) was significantly reduced. While future climate can enhance individual growth and survival, it may also reduce constraints on mechanisms of reproduction such that enhanced intra-generational productivity and reproductive success transfers to subsequent generations. Where both intra and intergenerational production is enhanced, population sizes might boom. PMID:27625161

  14. Holism, entrenchment, and the future of climate model pluralism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenhard, Johannes; Winsberg, Eric

    In this paper, we explore the extent to which issues of simulation model validation take on novel characteristics when the models in question become particularly complex. Our central claim is that complex simulation models in general, and global models of climate in particular, face a form of confirmation holism. This holism, moreover, makes analytic understanding of complex models of climate either extremely difficult or even impossible. We argue that this supports a position we call convergence skepticism: the belief that the existence of a plurality of different models making a plurality of different forecasts of future climate is likely to be a persistent feature of global climate science.

  15. The future of species under climate change: resilience or decline?

    PubMed

    Moritz, Craig; Agudo, Rosa

    2013-08-02

    As climates change across already stressed ecosystems, there is no doubt that species will be affected, but to what extent and which will be most vulnerable remain uncertain. The fossil record suggests that most species persisted through past climate change, whereas forecasts of future impacts predict large-scale range reduction and extinction. Many species have altered range limits and phenotypes through 20th-century climate change, but responses are highly variable. The proximate causes of species decline relative to resilience remain largely obscure; however, recent examples of climate-associated species decline can help guide current management in parallel with ongoing research.

  16. The Future Of European Floodplain Wetlands Under A Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Christof; Flörke, Martina; Geerling, Gertjan; Duel, Harm; Grygoruk, Mateusz; Okruszko, Tomasz

    2010-05-01

    Floodplain wetlands are defined by their recurring inundation caused by flooding of adjacent rivers and often, the health of riverine ecosystems is dependent on the natural pattern of these inundation events (Junk et al. 1989). In the future, climate change may severely alter flood patterns over large regional scales. Consequently, besides other anthropogenic factors, climate change depicts a potential threat to river ecosystems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on floodplain inundation for important floodplain wetlands in Europe and to place these results in an ecological context. This work is performed within the SCENES project considering three different climate change projections for the 2050s. The global scale hydrological model WaterGAP is applied to simulate current and future river discharges which are then used to i) estimate bankfull flow conditions, ii) analyse all overbank flows by different inundation parameters, and iii) evaluate the hydrological consequences and their relation to ecology. Bankfull flow marks an important breakpoint as above this level generally flooding occurs which hydraulically connects rivers to adjacent floodplains and riparian wetlands leading to radical change in the biological processes. Bankfull flow is determined by flood frequency analysis whereas we make use of the partial duration series and an increasing threshold censoring procedure. Any flow greater than bankfull flow is considered a critical flow to investigate. Volume, duration and timing of inundation are regarded as crucial for sustaining floodplain habitats and their ecological functions. Finally, we combine the modelling approach with a scenario analysis which has become a common tool for assessing future trends of environmental problems, particularly those that are complex and poorly described. Precipitation and temperature interact differently at different locations leading to unfavourable changes in the river flow regimes with

  17. Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

    2000-01-01

    We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is

  18. What role for volcanoes in future climate projections?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bethke, Ingo; Outten, Stephen; Thorne, Peter; Helge Otterå, Odd

    2016-04-01

    Despite ample evidence for volcanic impacts on climate, volcanic forcing has so far been excluded or poorly represented in future climate projections. From the analysis of a 21st century simulation ensemble with 60 plausible realisations of future volcanic activity, consistent with apparent activity over the past two millenia, we show that the projected range in global temperature inter-annual variability and decadal-scale trends is significantly enhanced when volcanism is taken into account. Chances for simulating a 10-year "global warming pause" increase by more than 50%, while the probability for obtaining anomalously strong warming surges is less affected. This study provides a probabilistic framework for including volcanic forcing uncertainty into climate projections, and thus may constitute a step towards improved future climate assessment.

  19. Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

    2017-07-01

    Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

  20. Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2009-12-01

    Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach

  1. Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dowsett, Harry J.; Chandler, Mark A.; Robinson, Marci M.

    2009-01-01

    The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

  2. Response of switchgrass yield to future climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tulbure, Mirela G.; Wimberly, Michael C.; Owens, Vance N.

    2012-12-01

    A climate envelope approach was used to model the response of switchgrass, a model bioenergy species in the United States, to future climate change. The model was built using general additive models (GAMs), and switchgrass yields collected at 45 field trial locations as the response variable. The model incorporated variables previously shown to be the main determinants of switchgrass yield, and utilized current and predicted 1 km climate data from WorldClim. The models were run with current WorldClim data and compared with results of predicted yield obtained using two climate change scenarios across three global change models for three time steps. Results did not predict an increase in maximum switchgrass yield but showed an overall shift in areas of high switchgrass productivity for both cytotypes. For upland cytotypes, the shift in high yields was concentrated in northern and north-eastern areas where there were increases in average growing season temperature, whereas for lowland cultivars the areas where yields were projected to increase were associated with increases in average early growing season precipitation. These results highlight the fact that the influences of climate change on switchgrass yield are spatially heterogeneous and vary depending on cytotype. Knowledge of spatial distribution of suitable areas for switchgrass production under climate change should be incorporated into planning of current and future biofuel production. Understanding how switchgrass yields will be affected by future changes in climate is important for achieving a sustainable biofuels economy.

  3. Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamics in the Climate System: Past and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overpeck, J.; Whitlock, C.; Huntley, B.

    2002-12-01

    The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that climate change as large as is likely to occur in the next two centuries will drive change in the terrestrial biosphere that is both large and difficult to predict, or plan for. Many species, communities and ecosystems could experience rates of climate change, and "destination climates" that are unprecedented in their time on earth. The paleorecord also makes it clear that a wide range of possible climate system behavior, such as decades-long droughts, increases in large storm and flood frequency, and rapid sea level rise, all occurred repeatedly in the past, and for poorly understood reasons. These types of events, if they were to reoccur in the future, could have especially devastating impacts on biodiversity, both because their timing and spatial extent cannot be anticipated, and because the biota's natural defenses have been compromised by land-use, reductions in genetic flexibility, pollution, excess water utilization, invasive species, and other human influences. Vegetation disturbance (e.g., by disease, pests and fire) will undoubtedly be exacerbated by climate change (stress), but could also speed the rate at which terrestrial biosphere change takes place in the future. The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that major scientific challenges include an improved ability to model regional biospheric change, both past and future. This in turn will be a prerequisite to obtaining realistic estimates of future biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks, and thus to obtaining better assessments of future climate change. These steps will help generate the improved understanding of climate variability that is needed to manage global biodiversity. However, the most troubling message from the paleoenvironmental record is that unchecked anthropogenic climate change could make the Earth's 6th major mass extinction unavoidable.

  4. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167

  5. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe.

    PubMed

    Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

    2012-02-07

    Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases.

  6. Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephenson, Scott R.; Smith, Laurence C.

    2015-11-01

    Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to intermodel variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21st-century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011-2035) and mid-century (2036-2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

  7. Future water resource availability under changing climate in Bolivian Andes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinouchi, T.; Mendoza, J.

    2016-12-01

    In Bolivian Andes, retreats of tropical glaciers are rapid, thus water resources currently available from glacierized catchments for drinking, agriculture, industry and hydropower would be changed in its volume and variations due to changing climate. Water resources in La Paz and El Alto, the capital city areas of Bolivia, strongly depend on the runoff from partially glacierized catchments located in the Cordillera Real, which is a combined contribution of surface and subsurface flow from glacierized and non-glacierized areas due to rainfall, snow melt and glacier melt. To predict the long-term availability of water resources for the capital city areas, we applied a semi-distributed conceptual glacio-hydrological model that considers various runoff pathways from partially glacierized high-altitudinal catchments located in the outer tropics under future climate conditions based on the two GCM outputs (MRI-AGCM and INGV-ECHAM4) with bias corrected by reanalysis data (ERA-INTERIM) and downscaled to our target area using the data monitored at several weather stations. The model was applied to the watershed from which current water resources for La Paz and El Alto are supplied, and eight additional catchments that are considered to be potentially effective in compensating reduced runoff from the current water resource area. As a result, we found that the current water resource area cannot support the demand due to glowing population and the decrease of runoff towards the future. We indicated that the partially-glacierized catchments located in the vicinity of the current water resource catchment can be exploited as additional water resources to compensate the potential shortage in water supply predicted for the middle of this century.

  8. Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

    PubMed

    Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

    2016-07-01

    Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios.

  9. Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2011-07-01

    During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps

  10. Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

    2015-01-01

    Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

  11. Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

    2015-01-01

    Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

  12. For research on climate change, past is key to future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oldfield, Frank

    One of the major challenges for predicting future climate change is determining the specific causes of past and present changes. Greenhouse gases are not alone in influencing climate; changes in solar irradiance and major volcanic eruptions also play important roles. Recent research findings complement and reinforce evidence for human-induced warming based on theory, computer models, and the growing number of observations that claim to detect a “fingerprint” signal of the greenhouse effect. They do not deny the importance of solar influences on climate and especially cloud variability, but they do point to a broader picture.

  13. NASA's Sentinels Monitoring Weather and Climate: Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Herring, David; Gutro, Rob; Huffman, George; Halverson, Jeff

    2002-01-01

    Weatherwise is probably the most popular newstand magazine focusing on the subject of weather. It is published six times per year and includes features on weather, climate, and technology. This article (to appear in the January/February Issue) provides a comprehensive review of NASA s past, present, and future contributions in satellite remote sensing for weather and climate processes. The article spans the historical strides of the TIROS program through the scientific and technological innovation of Earth Observer-3 and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM). It is one of the most thorough reviews of NASA s weather and climate satellite efforts to appear in the popular literature.

  14. Global flood risks under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Ward, Philip; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel

    2013-04-01

    Worldwide major flood events result in both economic losses and large numbers of casualties. Recent global scale studies indicate that in many regions of the world discharge extremes are likely to increase under changing climate conditions. However, few studies have so far examined how these changes in climate conditions may affect flood risk (defined here as the probability of a flood multiplied by the consequences). In the current study we investigate the impacts of changing climate and socioeconomic conditions on flood extents and depths, and also assess the potential impacts on flood risk. The study is conducted on a global scale, thereby indicating in which regions of the world flood risk is likely to change most. To assess global food risk under changing conditions, we combined socio-economic data from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) framework of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) with high resolution maps of inundation depth (1 km). To this end, projections from a number of GCMs were bias-corrected and used to force the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB which simulates (amongst other variables) global maps with daily flood volumes on a 0.5 degree resolution. These time series were used to derive flood volume maps for multiple return periods, which were downscaled to inundation depth maps at 1 km resolution using a 1 km resolution DEM. Finally, these high resolution flood maps were combined with spatial datasets on future GDP and population density from the IMAGE model. Results are presented on both the global scale and at the country level. We believe that the obtained flood extend and flood risk maps can assist development agencies in planning climate adaptation investments that aim to reduce flood risks.

  15. Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.

    PubMed

    Duursma, Daisy Englert; Gallagher, Rachael V; Roger, Erin; Hughes, Lesley; Downey, Paul O; Leishman, Michelle R

    2013-01-01

    Naturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large number of potentially invasive plants will help to target monitoring, and is vital for effective control. We used species distribution models (SDM) and invasion-hotspot analysis to determine where in Australia suitable habitat may occur for 292 naturalised plants. SDMs were built in MaxEnt using both climate and soil variables for current baseline conditions. Modelled relationships were projected onto two Representative Concentration Pathways for future climates (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), based on seven global climate models, for two time periods (2035, 2065). Model outputs for each of the 292 species were then aggregated into single 'hotspot' maps at two scales: continental, and for each of Australia's 37 ecoregions. Across Australia, areas in the south-east and south-west corners of the continent were identified as potential hotspots for naturalised plants under current and future climates. These regions provided suitable habitat for 288 and 239 species respectively under baseline climates. The areal extent of the continental hotspot was projected to decrease by 8.8% under climates for 2035, and by a further 5.2% by 2065. A similar pattern of hotspot contraction under future climates was seen for the majority of ecoregions examined. However, two ecoregions - Tasmanian temperate forests and Australian Alps montane grasslands - showed increases in the areal extent of hotspots of >45% under climate scenarios for 2065. The alpine ecoregion also had an increase in the number of naturalised plant species with abiotically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, indicating that this area may be particularly vulnerable to future incursions by naturalised plants.

  16. Next-Generation Invaders? Hotspots for Naturalised Sleeper Weeds in Australia under Future Climates

    PubMed Central

    Roger, Erin; Hughes, Lesley; Downey, Paul O.; Leishman, Michelle R.

    2013-01-01

    Naturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large number of potentially invasive plants will help to target monitoring, and is vital for effective control. We used species distribution models (SDM) and invasion-hotspot analysis to determine where in Australia suitable habitat may occur for 292 naturalised plants. SDMs were built in MaxEnt using both climate and soil variables for current baseline conditions. Modelled relationships were projected onto two Representative Concentration Pathways for future climates (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), based on seven global climate models, for two time periods (2035, 2065). Model outputs for each of the 292 species were then aggregated into single ‘hotspot’ maps at two scales: continental, and for each of Australia’s 37 ecoregions. Across Australia, areas in the south-east and south-west corners of the continent were identified as potential hotspots for naturalised plants under current and future climates. These regions provided suitable habitat for 288 and 239 species respectively under baseline climates. The areal extent of the continental hotspot was projected to decrease by 8.8% under climates for 2035, and by a further 5.2% by 2065. A similar pattern of hotspot contraction under future climates was seen for the majority of ecoregions examined. However, two ecoregions - Tasmanian temperate forests and Australian Alps montane grasslands - showed increases in the areal extent of hotspots of >45% under climate scenarios for 2065. The alpine ecoregion also had an increase in the number of naturalised plant species with abiotically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, indicating that this area may be particularly vulnerable to future incursions by naturalised plants. PMID

  17. Reconstructing Volcanic Forcing of Climate: Past, Present and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toohey, M.; Timmreck, C.; Sigl, M.

    2015-12-01

    Radiative forcing resulting from major volcanic eruptions has been a dominant driver of climate variability during Earth's history. Including volcanic forcing in climate model simulations is therefore essential to recreate past climate variability, and provides the opportunity to test the ability of models to respond accurately to external forcing. Ice cores provide estimates of the volcanic sulfate loadings from past eruptions, from which radiative forcing can be reconstructed, with associated uncertainties. Using prior reconstructions, climate models have reproduced the gross features of global mean temperature variability reconstructed from climate proxies, although some significant differences between model results and reconstructions remain. There is much less confidence in the accuracy of the dynamical responses to volcanic forcing produced by climate models, and thus the regional aspects of post-volcanic climate anomalies are much more uncertain—a result which mirrors uncertainties in the dynamical responses to future climate change. Improvements in model's response to volcanic forcing may be possible through improving the accuracy of the forcing data. Recent advances on multiple fronts have motivated the development of a next-generation volcanic forcing timeseries for use in climate models, based on (1) improved dating and precision of ice core records, (2) better understanding of the atmospheric transport and microphysical evolution of volcanic aerosol, including its size distribution, and (3) improved representations of the spatiotemporal structure of volcanic radiative forcing. A new volcanic forcing data set, covering the past 2500 years, will be introduced and compared with prior reconstructions. Preliminary results of climate model simulations using the new forcing will also be shown, and current and future applications of the forcing set discussed.

  18. Using unknown knowns to predict coastal response to future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plant, N. G.; Lentz, E. E.; Gutierrez, B.; Thieler, E. R.; Passeri, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The coastal zone, including its bathymetry, topography, ecosystem, and communities, depends on and responds to a wide array of natural and engineered processes associated with climate variability. Climate affects the frequency of coastal storms, which are only resolved probabilistically for future conditions, as well as setting the pace for persistent processes (e.g., waves driving daily alongshore transport; beach nourishment). It is not clear whether persistent processes or extreme events contribute most to the integrated evolution of the coast. Yet, observations of coastal change record the integration of persistent and extreme processes. When these observations span a large spatial domain and/or temporal range they may reflect a wide range of forcing and boundary conditions that include different levels of sea-level rise, storminess, sediment input, engineering activities, and elevation distributions. We have been using a statistical approach to characterize the interrelationships between oceanographic, ecological, and geomorphic processes—including the role played by human activities via coastal protection, beach nourishment, and other forms of coastal management. The statistical approach, Bayesian networks, incorporates existing information to establish underlying prior expectations for the distributions and inter-correlations of variables most relevant to coastal geomorphic evolution. This underlying information can then be used to make predictions. We demonstrate several examples of the utility of this approach using data as constraints and then propagating the constraints and uncertainty to make predictions of unobserved variables that include changes in shorelines, dunes, and overwash deposits. We draw on data from the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States, resolving time scales of years to a century. The examples include both short-term storm impacts and long-term evolution associated with sea-level rise. We show that the Bayesian network can

  19. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    Treesearch

    Stephanie K. Moore; Vera L. Trainer; Nathan J. Mantua; Micaela S. Parker; Edward A. Laws; Lorraine C. Backer; Lora E. Fleming

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes...

  20. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  1. Predicting the future by explaining the past: constraining carbon-climate feedback using contemporary observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denning, S.

    2014-12-01

    The carbon-climate community has an historic opportunity to make a step-function improvement in climate prediction by using regional constraints to improve mechanistic model representation of carbon cycle processes. Interactions among atmospheric CO2, global biogeochemistry, and physical climate constitute leading sources of uncertainty in future climate. First-order differences among leading models of these processes produce differences in climate as large as differences in aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and fossil fuel combustion. Emergent constraints based on global observations of interannual variations provide powerful constraints on model parameterizations. Additional constraints can be defined at regional scales. Organized intercomparison experiments have shown that uncertainties in future carbon-climate feedback arise primarily from model representations of the dependence of photosynthesis on CO2 and drought stress and the dependence of decomposition on temperature. Just as representations of net carbon fluxes have benefited from eddy flux, ecosystem manipulations, and atmospheric CO2, component carbon fluxes (photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, disturbance) can be constrained at regional scales using new observations. Examples include biogeochemical tracers such as isotopes and carbonyl sulfide as well as remotely-sensed parameters such as chlorophyll fluorescence and biomass. Innovative model evaluation experiments will be needed to leverage the information content of new observations to improve process representations as well as to provide accurate initial conditions for coupled climate model simulations. Successful implementation of a comprehensive benchmarking program could have a huge impact on understanding and predicting future climate change.

  2. Future climate of the Bering and Chukchi Seas projected by global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Muyin; Overland, James E.; Stabeno, Phyllis

    2012-06-01

    Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are a major tool used by scientists to study the complex interaction of processes that control climate and climate change. Projections from these models for the 21st century are the basis for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we use simulations from this set of climate models developed for the IPCC AR4 to provide a regional assessment of sea ice extent, sea surface temperature (SST), and surface air temperature (SAT) critical to future marine ecosystems in the Bering Sea and the Chukchi Sea. To reduce uncertainties associated with the model projections, a two-step model culling technique is applied based on comparison to 20th century observations. For the Chukchi Sea, data and model projections show major September sea ice extent reduction compared to the 20th century beginning now, with nearly sea ice free conditions before mid-century. Earlier sea ice loss continues throughout fall with major loss in December before the end of the 21st century. By 2050, for the eastern Bering Sea, spring sea ice extent (average of March to May) would be 58% of its recent values (1980-1999 mean). December will become increasingly sea ice free over the next 40 years. The Bering Sea will continue to show major interannual variability in sea ice extent and SST. The majority of models had no systematic bias in their 20th century simulated regional SAT, an indication that the models may provide considerable credibility for the Bering and the Chukchi Sea ecosystem projections. Largest air temperature increases are in fall (November to December) for both the Chukchi and the Bering Sea, with increases by 2050 of 3 °C for the Bering Sea and increases in excess of 5 °C for the Chukchi Sea.

  3. Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Dynamics under Recent and Future Climate Change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews, H. Damon; Weaver, Andrew J.; Meissner, Katrin J.

    2005-05-01

    The behavior of the terrestrial carbon cycle under historical and future climate change is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, now coupled to a dynamic terrestrial vegetation and global carbon cycle model. When forced by historical emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and land-use change, the coupled climate-carbon cycle model accurately reproduces historical atmospheric CO2 trends, as well as terrestrial and oceanic uptake for the past two decades. Under six twenty-first-century CO2 emissions scenarios, both terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks continue to increase, though terrestrial uptake slows in the latter half of the century. Climate-carbon cycle feedbacks are isolated by comparing a coupled model run with a run where climate and the carbon cycle are uncoupled. The modeled positive feedback between the carbon cycle and climate is found to be relatively small, resulting in an increase in simulated CO2 of 60 ppmv at the year 2100. Including non-CO2 greenhouse gas forcing and increasing the model's climate sensitivity increase the effect of this feedback to 140 ppmv. The UVic model does not, however, simulate a switch from a terrestrial carbon sink to a source during the twenty-first century, as earlier studies have suggested. This can be explained by a lack of substantial reductions in simulated vegetation productivity due to climate changes.

  4. Implications of climate mitigation for future agricultural production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure

  5. Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many

  6. Fire occurrence and fire weather indices in the past and under future climate in Peninsular Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Moreno, José M.

    2010-05-01

    Understanding fire occurrence and its relationship with ignition sources and weather conditions is a major environmental challenge in regions affected by fire, particularly under ongoing and projected future climate change. The objectives of this study were: 1) To address a historical reconstruction of fire regime (fire occurrence, area burned, and fire causes) in Peninsular Spain for the last three decades. 2) Analyze the time x space relationship between fire occurrence and area burned with climatic variables and climate-derived fire danger indices. 3) Assess how climate change would affect fire danger indices for various emission scenarios based on projections of five regional climate models. The country was divided into 50x50 km cells, for which fire statistics were available. Climate data were interpolated at this grid so that daily fire danger indices were calculated for present and future conditions. Results showed an overall increase of fire occurrence and area burned over the past decades. Fire activity (number of fires and area burned) showed significant correlations with fire danger indices and climatic variables; although in some areas the relationship was weak given the uncertainty linked to the number of ignitions caused by people. There was a significant correlation between certain fire indices and Gini coefficient of fire sizes, whereby fires under more severe conditions become more variable in size. Towards the end of this century (2071-2100) increases in the fire danger indices, and a longer period of fire danger are projected. This trend is consistent among models.

  7. Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise Parsons; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A.; Janetos, Anthony C.

    2010-11-16

    Land use change to meet 21st Century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will occur in the context of both a changing climate as well as societal efforts to mitigate climate change. This changing natural and human environment will have large consequences for forest resources, terrestrial carbon storage and emissions, and food and energy crop production over the next century. Any climate change mitigation policies enacted will change the environment under which land-use decisions are made and alter global land use change patterns. Here we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to explore how climate mitigation policies that achieve a climate stabilization at 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing in 2100 and value carbon in terrestrial ecosystems interact with future agricultural productivity and food and energy demands to influence land use in the tropics. The regional land use results are downscaled from GCAM regions to produce gridded maps of tropical land use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved only in cases where a climate mitigation policy that values terrestrial carbon is in place, and crop productivity growth continues throughout the century. Crop productivity growth is also necessary to avoid large scale deforestation globally and enable the production of bioenergy crops. The terrestrial carbon pricing assumptions in GCAM are effective at avoiding deforestation even when cropland must expand to meet future food demand.

  8. Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

    PubMed

    Jones, R A C

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

    PubMed

    Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.

  10. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

    PubMed Central

    Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

  11. Future seasonal climate change scenarios for Taiwan using a climate scenario generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tfwala, Samkele; Chen, Su-Chin

    2017-04-01

    Decision makers, resource managers and engineers demand accurate information regarding future changes in climate and variability to better forecast potential impacts. To acquire information about climate change, dedicated experiments using global and regional climate models are needed. These demand considerable computing capacity and expertise. This study explores the use of simple climate change scenario generators in developing future changes of climate change at national level. Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGGIC) combined with a scenario generator (SCENGEN) is applied. MAGGIC/SCENGEN use results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 - CMIP3 and IPCC fourth assessment report, working group 1 - AR4). Eighteen general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated based on global and regional performance. From these, 5 models were selected to predict future changes for Taiwan. The models predict temperature increase in all seasons with a high magnitude (3.16 °C) in June-July-August (JJA) season. Precipitation changes vary widely; generally, there is a decline in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON). A significant decline, -8.8 % and -16 %, is observed in MAM by 2020 and 2100, respectively. The study reveals that simple climate change scenarios can be used to predict future changes.

  12. Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates

    PubMed Central

    Loeb, Susan C; Winters, Eric A

    2013-01-01

    Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern United States. The northerly distribution of Indiana bat summer maternity colonies relative to their winter distributions suggests that warmer climates may result in a shift in their summer distribution. Our objectives were to determine the climatic factors associated with Indiana bat maternity range and forecast changes in the amount and distribution of the range under future climates. We used Maxent to model the suitable climatic habitat of Indiana bats under current conditions and four future climate forecasts for 2021–30, 2031–40, 2041–50, and 2051–60. Average maximum temperature across the maternity season (May–August) was the most important variable in the model of current distribution of Indiana bat maternity colonies with suitability decreasing considerably above 28ºC. The areal extent of the summer maternity distribution of Indiana bats was forecasted to decline and be concentrated in the northeastern United States and Appalachian Mountains; the western part of the current maternity range (Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio) was forecasted to become climatically unsuitable under most future climates. Our models suggest that high temperatures may be a factor in roost-site selection at the regional scale and in the future, may also be an important variable at the microhabitat scale. When behavioral changes fail to mitigate the effects of high temperature, range shifts are likely to occur. Thus, habitat management for Indiana bat maternity colonies in the northeastern United States and Appalachian Mountains of the Southeast is critical as these areas will most likely serve as climatic

  13. Impacts of urbanization on future climate in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Liang; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.

    2016-07-01

    Urbanization plays an important role in human-induced climate change at the regional scale through altered land-atmosphere interactions over urban areas. In this study, the impacts of future urbanization in China on climate are investigated. The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to downscale future projections using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 simulations from the Community Earth System Model. Results for 2050 show decreased latent and increased sensible heat fluxes over the urban area, therefore leading to higher surface temperatures and less humidity. Future climate projections reveal that urbanization produces strong warming effects, up to 1.9 °C at regional and local/urban scales, which is comparable to the magnitude of greenhouse gas forcing under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Greater urban warming effects are projected during night and summer, which can be attributed to the high heat capacity of built-up areas. The impacts of urbanization on precipitation show varying effects primarily in summer—both increases and decreases depending on spatial scale—related to both local moisture deficits and large-scale circulation changes. Urbanization could strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon in southern China in summer, and slightly weaken it in eastern China in winter. Due to these significant impacts, we suggest that urbanization should be included in model projections to provide a more realistic and complete depiction of future climate.

  14. DBP formation and disinfection under current and future climates - slides

    EPA Science Inventory

    How to predict and monitoring DBP formation under current and future climate is a challenge and important to water plant operations and water supply security. This presentation summarizes a system approach being developed at the EPA Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP).

  15. DBP formation and disinfection under current and future climates - slides

    EPA Science Inventory

    How to predict and monitoring DBP formation under current and future climate is a challenge and important to water plant operations and water supply security. This presentation summarizes a system approach being developed at the EPA Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP).

  16. Climate change and the future of seed zones

    Treesearch

    Francis Kilkenny; Brad St. Clair; Matt. Horning

    2013-01-01

    The use of native plants in wildland restoration is critical to the recovery and health of ecosystems. Information from genecological and reciprocal transplant common garden studies can be used to develop seed transfer guidelines and to predict how plants will respond to future climate change. Tools developed from these data, such as universal response functions and...

  17. Specifying Future Educational Needs in a Changing Political Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watson, Cicely

    To discuss the ways in which a planner can specify future education needs in a changing political climate, the author focuses on Ontario, and uses tables and enrollment projections as illustrations. The author notes that the issue of how much to spend on education is political, and observes that, in Ontario, the growing demand will be for…

  18. Multimodel ensemble simulations of present and future climates over West Africa: Impacts of vegetation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erfanian, Amir; Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Anyah, Richard

    2016-09-01

    In this study, we take an ensemble modeling approach using the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM-CN-DV (RCM) to study the impact of including vegetation dynamics on model performance in simulating present-day climate and on future climate projections over West Africa. The ensemble consists of four global climate models (GCMs) as lateral boundary conditions for the RCM, and simulations with both static and dynamic vegetation are conducted. The results demonstrate substantial sensitivity of the simulated precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture to vegetation representation. Although including dynamic vegetation in the model eliminates potential inconsistencies between surface climate and the bioclimatic requirements of the prescribed vegetation, it enhances model biases causing climate drift. For present-day climate, the ensemble average generally outperforms individual members due to cancelation of model biases. For future changes, although the original GCMs project contradicting future rainfall trends over West Africa, the RCMs-produced trends are generally consistent. The multimodel ensemble projects significant decreases of rainfall over a major portion of West Africa and significant increases over eastern Sahel and East Africa. Projected future changes of evapotranspiration and soil moisture are consistent with those of precipitation, with significant decreases (increases) for western (eastern) Sahel. Accounting for vegetation-climate interactions has localized but significant impacts on projected future changes of precipitation, with a wet signal over a belt of projected increase of woody vegetation cover; the impact on the projected future changes of evapotranspiration and soil moisture over west and central Africa is much more profound.

  19. Future droughts in Global Climate Models and adaptation strategies from regional present-day analogues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2012-04-01

    Droughts are among the most impacting phenomena of a changing climate, affecting agricultural productivity and human health. They can furthermore interact with and amplify other climatic extreme events such as heat waves. Our analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble of GCM simulations identifies several hot spots of aggravating droughts in coming decades, such as the Mediterranean, parts of the Southern US and North East Brazil, which also compare well with increasing stress from heat waves. However, as we show by a comparison of drought indices, the exact pattern can substantially depend on the index choice. In some regions of the developing world which are particularly vulnerable to droughts, e.g. Central Africa, this uncertainty is further increased by a high disagreement between the GCMs. In a second step, we perform an analogue search which, for a given target region, identifies regions which under present-day climate show drought conditions that are similar to the projected future drought conditions of the target region. For example, the future conditions in the Mediterranean are found to be analogue to the present-day conditions in parts of the US, Central Asia or Australia. Information from web resources on climate change adaptation and agricultural practices for the identified similar regions are then assessed in the context of the target region as potential guidelines for adaptation. Thus combining the temporal and spatial dimension helps to transfer local climate adaptation knowledge to other regions, where it is expected to become relevant in the future.

  20. Future change of climate classification over South Korea in multi regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyeon-Jae; Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun

    2017-04-01

    Regional climate simulations for the CORDEX East Asia domain were conducted between 1981 and 2100 using five models to produce climate change projection based on RCP26, 45, 60, 85 scenarios. In this study using the ensemble of five model results, future changes in climate zones of South Korea were investigated according to Köppen-Trewartha's classification criteria. Four periods, historical (1981 2005), early future (2021 2040), middle future (2041 2070), and late future (2071 2100) were analyzed to examine future changes. In historical (1981 2005) period, the subtropical zones are only dominant in the south coastal regions and Jeju island, while those tend to expand in the future periods. Depending on the RCP scenarios, the more radiative forcing results in the larger subtropical zone over South Korea. The expansion of the subtropical zone in metropolitan areas is more evident than that in rural areas. In addition, the enlargement of subtropical zone in coastal regions is more prominent that in inland regions. Particularly, the subtropical climate zone for the late future period of RCP85 scenario is significantly dominant in most South Korea. Acknowledgement The research was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development program under grant KMIPA 2015-2083 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

  1. Regional Climate Downscaling Of African Climate Using A High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model: Validation And Future Projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raj, J.; Stenchikov, G. L.; Bangalath, H.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning require region specific information with high spatial resolution, since the climate and weather effects are directly felt at the local scale. While most of the state-of-the-art General Circulation Models lack adequate spatial resolution, regional climate models (RCM) used in a nested domain are generally incapable of incorporating the two-way exchanges between regional and global climate. In this study we use a very high resolution atmospheric general circulation model HiRAM, developed at NOAA GFDL, to investigate the regional climate changes over CORDEX African domain. The HiRAM simulations are performed with a horizontal grid spacing of 25 km, which is an ample resolution for regional climate simulation. HiRAM has the advantage of naturally describing interaction between regional and global climate. Historic (1975-2004) simulations and future (2007-2050) projections, with both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 pathways, are conducted in line with the CORDEX protocol. A coarse resolution sea surface temperature (SST) is prescribed from the GFDL Earth System Model runs of IPPC AR5, as bottom boundary condition over ocean. The GFDL Land Surface Model (LM3) is employed to calculate physical processes at surface and in soil. The preliminary analysis of the performance of HiRAM, using historic runs, shows it reproduces the regional climate adequately well in comparison with observations. Significant improvement in the simulation of regional climate is evident in comparison with the coarse resolution driving model. Future projections predict an increase in atmospheric temperature over Africa with stronger warming in the subtropics than in tropics. A significant strengthening of West African Monsoon and a southward shift of the summer rainfall maxima over Africa is predicted in both RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

  2. The Future is Now: Reducing Psychological Distance to Increase Public Engagement with Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Jones, Charlotte; Hine, Donald W; Marks, Anthony D G

    2017-02-01

    Many people perceive climate change as psychologically distant-a set of uncertain events that might occur far in the future, impacting distant places and affecting people dissimilar to themselves. In this study, we employed construal level theory to investigate whether a climate change communication intervention could increase public engagement by reducing the psychological distance of climate change. Australian residents (N = 333) were randomly assigned to one of two treatment conditions: one framed to increase psychological distance to climate change (distal frame), and the other framed to reduce psychological distance (proximal frame). Participants then completed measures of psychological distance of climate change impacts, climate change concern, and intentions to engage in mitigation behavior. Principal components analysis indicated that psychological distance to climate change was best conceptualized as a multidimensional construct consisting of four components: geographic, temporal, social, and uncertainty. Path analysis revealed the effect of the treatment frame on climate change concern and intentions was fully mediated by psychological distance dimensions related to uncertainty and social distance. Our results suggest that climate communications framed to reduce psychological distance represent a promising strategy for increasing public engagement with climate change. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Modelling distribution in European stream macroinvertebrates under future climates.

    PubMed

    Domisch, Sami; Araújo, Miguel B; Bonada, Núria; Pauls, Steffen U; Jähnig, Sonja C; Haase, Peter

    2013-03-01

    Climate change is predicted to have profound effects on freshwater organisms due to rising temperatures and altered precipitation regimes. Using an ensemble of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs), we modelled the climatic suitability of 191 stream macroinvertebrate species from 12 orders across Europe under two climate change scenarios for 2080 on a spatial resolution of 5 arc minutes. Analyses included assessments of relative changes in species' climatically suitable areas as well as their potential shifts in latitude and longitude with respect to species' thermal preferences. Climate-change effects were also analysed regarding species' ecological and biological groupings, namely (1) endemicity and (2) rarity within European ecoregions, (3) life cycle, (4) stream zonation preference and (5) current preference. The BEMs projected that suitable climate conditions would persist in Europe in the year 2080 for nearly 99% of the modelled species regardless of the climate scenario. Nevertheless, a decrease in the amount of climatically suitable areas was projected for 57-59% of the species. Depending on the scenario, losses could be of 38-44% on average. The suitable areas for species were projected to shift, on average, 4.7-6.6° north and 3.9-5.4° east. Cold-adapted species were projected to lose climatically suitable areas, while gains were expected for warm-adapted species. When projections were analysed for different species groupings, only endemics stood out as a particular group. That is, endemics were projected to lose significantly larger amounts of suitable climatic areas than nonendemic species. Despite the uncertainties involved in modelling exercises such as this, the extent of projected distributional changes reveals further the vulnerability of freshwater organisms to climate change and implies a need to understand the consequences for ecological function and biodiversity conservation. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  4. Overland flow connectivity under different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanoch, Lavee

    2015-04-01

    The effect of climate conditions on overland flow connectivity was investigated in arid (mean annual rainfall 120 mm), semi-arid (mean annual rainfall 280 mm) and sub-humid (mean annual rainfall 620 mm) regions. In each of these regions a hillslope reference plot was established, in which soil properties and hydrological variables were measured. The results show that at the regional scale soil organic matter content and aggregate stability decreased with increasing aridity. Infiltration rate also decreased with aridity but overland flow increased. At the hillslope scale, at each of the regions overland flow decreased with increasing hillslope length which means that overland flow is not continuous and water losses increases with hillslope length. In order to understand the controlling factors of overland flow continuity the spatial distribution of soil properties, vegetation cover and overland flow generation mechanisms were measured along hillslopes. The results show that water contributing (source) patches and water collecting (sink) patches exist along the hillslopes, in accordance with the spatial distribution of shrubs. The conclusion is that overland flow connectivity at the hillslope scale is affected mainly by the size, the density and by the spatial distribution of shrubs. An application for preventing soil erosion in urban areas (parks), along roads and in cultivated areas is that planting vegetation in patches or strips is more efficient than all over the hillslopes.

  5. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Lauren A

    2015-01-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

  6. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Freeman, Lauren A.

    2015-01-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100. PMID:26053439

  7. Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Kjellström, Erik; Zorita, Eduardo; Sonnenborg, Torben; Meier, Markus; Grinsted, Aslak

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate models have been used extensively since the first assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea region published in 2008, not the least for studies of Europe (and including the Baltic Sea catchment area). Therefore, conclusions regarding climate model results have a better foundation than was the case for the first BACC report of 2008. This presentation will report model results regarding future climate. What is the state of understanding about future human-driven climate change? We will cover regional models, statistical downscaling, hydrological modelling, ocean modelling and sea-level change as it is projected for the Baltic Sea region. Collections of regional model simulations from the ENSEMBLES project for example, financed through the European 5th Framework Programme and the World Climate Research Programme Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, have made it possible to obtain an increasingly robust estimation of model uncertainty. While the first Baltic Sea assessment mainly used four simulations from the European 5th Framework Programme PRUDENCE project, an ensemble of 13 transient regional simulations with twice the horizontal resolution reaching the end of the 21st century has been available from the ENSEMBLES project; therefore it has been possible to obtain more quantitative assessments of model uncertainty. The literature about future climate change in the Baltic Sea region is largely built upon the ENSEMBLES project. Also within statistical downscaling, a considerable number of papers have been published, encompassing now the application of non-linear statistical models, projected changes in extremes and correction of climate model biases. The uncertainty of hydrological change has received increasing attention since the previous Baltic Sea assessment. Several studies on the propagation of uncertainties originating in GCMs, RCMs, and emission scenarios are presented. The number of studies on uncertainties related to

  8. Flight Testing Under Extreme Climatic Conditions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-09-01

    FACILITY .. ........ 33 MCKINLEY CIMATIC LABORATORY .... ............ 34 Climatic Laboratory Description ... ........... 35 Climatic Laboratory...with other changes result- ing from a development program. This assures the availability of a globally effective system in the shortest possible time...procedural changes /improvements implemented and an assessment made of objectives achieved. This assessment sets the stage for preparation of the procedures

  9. [Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of rubber plantation in China].

    PubMed

    Liu, Shao-jun; Zhou, Guang-sheng; Fang, Shi-bo; Zhang, Jing-hong

    2015-07-01

    Global warming may seriously affect the climatic suitability distribution of rubber plantation in China. Five main climate factors affecting rubber planting were mean temperature of the coldest month, mean extremely minimum temperature, the number of monthly, mean temperature ≥18 °C, annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation. Climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 1981-2010, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 were analyzed by the maximum entropy model based on the five main climate factors and the climate data of 1981-2010 and RCP4.5 scenario data. The results showed that under the background of the future climate change, the climatic suitability area of rubber plantation would have a trend of expansion to the north in 2041-2060, 2061-2080. The climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 increased more obviously than in 1981-2010. The suitable area and optimum area would increase, while the less suitable area would decrease. The climatic suitability might change in some areas, such as the total suitable area would decrease in Yunnan Province, and the suitability grade in both Jinghong and Mengna would change from optimum area to suitable area. However, the optimum area of rubber plantation would increase significantly in Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula of Guangdong Province, and a new less suitable area of rubber planting would appear in Taiwan Island due to the climate change.

  10. Including Impacts of Climate Change in Long-Range Forecasts of Future Tuolumne River Streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenward, T.; Crawford, N. H.; Dufour, A.; McGurk, B. J.; Monier, W.

    2011-12-01

    Future streamflow is assessed for the Tuolumne River, a representative watershed in Sierra Nevada Mountains in California that provides 85% of the San Francisco Public Utility Commission's water supply for 2.5 million Bay Area residents and water to 8000 agricultural customers and over 200,000 electrical customers of the Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts. The Hydrocomp Forecasting and Analysis Model (HFAM) is a hydrologic simulation model which provides probabilistic inflow forecasts based on a continuous long-term simulation of a watershed driven by a historical meteorological database. The HFAM model is used to assess potential changes in the timing and volume of streamflow by driving the model with a long-term meteorological database that has been altered to represent the future climate in a specific year, for a given climate change scenario. In the Tuolumne, historical trends show increases to daily minimum temperatures but not to daily maximum temperatures. A static meteorological database that represents the current climate condition is generated by removing trends from historical data. Climate change scenarios for paired changes in temperature and precipitation were developed based on the range of predictions by global climate models. For each future climate condition, hourly temperature increases to the static database are calculated that are consistent with historical trends in daily minimum temperatures, while retaining a reasonable daily range in temperatures. Changes in future seasonal and annual probabilistic inflow forecasts are given for the Tuolumne River for each climate change scenario. The results show the importance of using probabilistic methods to assess climate change rather than mean values because impacts are more significant in low streamflow years.

  11. Climate change and human health: present and future risks.

    PubMed

    McMichael, Anthony J; Woodruff, Rosalie E; Hales, Simon

    2006-03-11

    There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0.5 degrees C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways-mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies.

  12. Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity

    PubMed Central

    Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

    2013-01-01

    Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g., phenology), space (e.g., range) and self (e.g., physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesize their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. PMID:22257223

  13. Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

    2012-04-01

    Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.

  14. Future Climate Subtropical Cyclones over the Northeastern Atlantic as Modelled by an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Aleman, J. J.; Gaertner, M. A.; Sanchez, E.; Romera, R.

    2016-12-01

    Subtropical cyclones (STCs) are low pressure systems that share common characteristics with extratropical and tropical cyclones. They can have an impact in the society as high as that of tropical cyclones or even hurricanes. In addition, STCs can become tropical cyclones through the tropical transition process.In this survey, we undertake the key issue of knowing if there will be a change in their frecuency of occurrence and/or their intensitiy, since they can be affected by Climate Change due to a possible alteration of their environment of formation. This work is developed thanks to the ESCENA project from Spain, in which relatively high resolution RCMs (25 km) nested on GCMs are used to simulate future climate conditions in the Northeastern Atlatic basin and southwestern Europe. In this way, STCs can be studied for the first time in future conditions since they are governed by both synoptic (cutoff lows) and mesoscale (convecton) processes that actual GCMs could not represent well.

  15. Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

    2012-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

  16. Catchment sensitivity to changing climate conditions: the importance of landscape characteristic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teutschbein, C.; Karlsen, R.; Grabs, T.; Laudon, H.; Bishop, K. H.

    2014-12-01

    The scientific literature is full of studies analyzing future climate change impacts on hydrology with focus on individual catchments. However, we recently found that hydrologic behavior and specific discharge vary considerably even in neighboring and rather similar catchments under current climate conditions and that these variations are related to landscape characteristics. Therefore we hypothesize that these landscape characteristics also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to changing climate conditions. We analyzed the hydrological response of 14 neighboring catchments in Northern Sweden with slightly different topography, land cover, size and geology. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV light model. Climate projections were based on 14 regional climate models (ENSEMBLES EU project) and bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach. Our simulations revealed that future spring flood peaks will occur much earlier and decrease by 13 to 32 %, whereas winter base flows will increase slightly. These changes are somewhat expected and mainly triggered by a projected increase in winter temperature, which leads to less snow accumulation on the ground. However, these values also highlight that there is a large variability amongst the catchments in their hydrological response to the same future climate conditions. For example, spring flood peaks in catchments without wetlands decrease by only 13 to 15 %, whereas catchments with wetlands show a spring flood peak reduction of 20 to 32 %. In addition to wetlands, we also identified lakes, peat soils and higher elevations as factors that seem to cause a stronger hydrological response to the climate change signal, whereas catchments dominated by forests, steeper slopes and till soils seem to be less strongly affected by a changing climate. Therefore, our results suggest that the sensitivity of catchments to future climate conditions is strongly linked to

  17. Future tendencies of climate indicators important for adaptation and mitigation strategies in forestry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galos, Borbala; Hänsler, Andreas; Gulyas, Krisztina; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts in the forestry sector, especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where forests are vulnerable and sensitive to the increasing probability and severity of climatic extremes, especially to droughts. For providing information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options for the Carpathian basin, a GIS-supported Decision Support System is under development. This study focuses on the future tendencies of climate indicators that determine the distribution, growth, health status and production of forests as well as the potential pests and diseases. For the analyses the climate database of the Decision Support System has been applied, which contains daily time series for precipitation and temperature means and extremes as well as derived climate indices for 1961-2100. For the future time period, simulation results of 12 regional climate models are included (www.ensembles-eu.org) based on the A1B emission scenario. The main results can be summarized as follows: · The projected change of the climate indices (e.g. total number of hot days, frost days, dry days, consecutive dry periods) and forestry indices (e.g. Ellenberg climate quotient, Forestry aridity index; Tolerance index for beech) indicates the warming and drying of the growing season towards the end of the 21st century. These can have severe consequences on the ecosystem services of forests. · The climatic suitable area of the native tree species is projected to move northwards and upwards in the mountains, respectively. For beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) this shift would mean the drastic shrink of the distribution area in the analyzed region. · The characteristic climate conditions that are expected in the Carpathian basin in the second half of the century, are now located southeastern from the case study region. In this way, the potential future provenance regions can be determined. Results provide input for the climate

  18. Climate change on Venus and future spacecraft mission priorities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bullock, M.; Grinspoon, D.

    Weathering of surface minerals in the sulfur-rich lower atmosphere of Venus may well have played a significant role in the recent evolution of the planet's climate. SO 2 in the atmosphere is interesting because it is the primary precursor of Venus' bright H 2SO 4 /H 2O clouds, it is a greenhouse gas, it is most likely outgassed by volcanoes [Prinn, 1985], it probably reacts with the surface, and it is apparently much higher in abundance that would be expected from thermochemical equilibrium with the surface [Fegley and Treiman, 1992] (although interpretations of Vega 1 and 2 UV spectrometer data challenge the latter, see Bertaux et al., [1996]). Changes in the atmospheric abundance of SO 2 would be accompanied by alterations in the optical properties of the clouds and in the greenhouse effect, thereby affecting surface temperatures [Bullock and Grinspoon, 2001]. Fegley and Prinn , [1989] demonstrated e perimentally that the reaction CaCO3 +x SO 2 ==> CaSO 4 + CO proceeds rapidly under Venus-like conditions, and concluded that SO 2 and hence the H 2 SO 4 /H 2O clouds would disappear in 1.9 My unless SO 2 in the atmosphere were continually replenished by volcanic outgassing. Using a coupled chemical kinetic reaction-diffusion and climate model, [ Bullock and Grinspoon, 2001] calculated that volcanism must supply SO 2 to the atmosphere on approximately 30 My timescales in order to maintain clouds with their current optical properties. Clues to the nature of the recent Venus climate may be obtained by elucidating the sensitivity of cloud properties to changes in a mospheric SO 2 andt H 2O and by investigations into the styles and depths of chemical weathering at the surface. Future robotic spacecraft missions have the pot ential to provide significant insights into recent climate change on Venus and on the role that sulfur may have played. Among the most important and scientifically valuable investigations are: 1. High spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution near

  19. Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jee Hee; Kim, Yeonjoo; Wang, Guiling

    2017-06-01

    Future projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4-produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response

  20. Climate change and agriculture: Current methodologies and future directions

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenzweig, C. |; Hillel, D.

    1996-12-31

    In the last fifteen years a major methodology has been developed for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production around the world. This methodology consists of coupling dynamic crop growth models, designed to predict plant development and yield as a function of weather, soil, and management input variables, to predictors of climate change for sites within a given region. Such impact studies consist of (1) Definition of area of study and analysis of current climate and agricultural practices; (2) Crop model calibration and evaluation; (3) Development of climate change scenarios from GCMs or historical weather data; (4) Analyses of yield changes under changed climatic conditions; and (5) Development and analysis of adaptation strategies. Crop productivity results of such studies are often used in economic analyses. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the US Country Studies Program endorse this modeling approach for the assessment of climate change effects on agriculture. It is useful for assessment studies to continue in the framework of the approved guidelines, in order to build a more complete understanding of likely effects on agricultural production throughout the world, and for more comprehensive results to be available for integrated assessment studies.

  1. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-09-01

    This study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraints.

  2. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; ...

    2016-06-16

    Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

  3. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-06-16

    Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.

  4. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-06-16

    Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.

  5. Mapping forest conditions: past, present, and future

    Treesearch

    Maggi Kelly

    2017-01-01

    Mapping and mapped data have always been critical to public land managers and researchers for identifying and characterizing wildlife habitat across scales, monitoring species and habitat change, and predicting and planning future scenarios. Maps and mapping protocols are often incorporated into wildlife and habitat management plans, as is the case with the California...

  6. Impact of Future Climate on Radial Growth of Four Major Boreal Tree Species in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C.; Denneler, Bernhard

    2013-01-01

    Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

  7. Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C; Denneler, Bernhard

    2013-01-01

    Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

  8. Estimation of future groundwater recharge using climatic analogues and Hydrus-1D

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leterme, B.; Mallants, D.; Jacques, D.

    2012-01-01

    The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is simulated using climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently under climatic conditions corresponding to a given climate state. The study was conducted in the context of a safety assessment of a future near-surface disposal facility for low and intermediate level short-lived radioactive waste in Belgium; this includes estimating groundwater recharge for the next millennia. Groundwater recharge was simulated using the Richard's based soil water balance model Hydrus-1D and meteorological time series from analogue stations. Water balance calculations showed that transition from a temperate oceanic to a warmer subtropical climate without rainfall seasonality is expected to yield a decrease in groundwater recharge (-12% for the chosen representative analogue station of Gijon, Northern Spain). Based on a time series of 24 yr of daily climate data, the long-term average annual recharge decreased from 314 to 276 mm, although total rainfall was higher (947 mm) in the warmer climate compared to the current temperate climate (899 mm). This is due to a higher soil evaporation (233 mm versus 206 mm) and higher plant transpiration (350 versus 285 mm) under the warmer climate.

  9. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  10. Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling of regional climate in China: Present climate evaluations and future climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Gao, Hongxia; Wang, Xueyuan; Wu, Jian

    2016-03-01

    Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling are two approaches to generate high-resolution regional climate models based on the large-scale information from either reanalysis data or global climate models. In this study, these two downscaling methods are used to simulate the surface climate of China and compared. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is cross validated and used to downscale the regional climate of China. Then, the downscaled historical climate of 1981-2000 and future climate of 2041-2060 are compared with that from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the European Center-Hamburg atmosphere model and the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and the L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the ocean, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR). The SDSM can reproduce the surface temperature characteristics of the present climate in China, whereas the WRF tends to underestimate the surface temperature over most of China. Both the SDSM and WRF require further work to improve their ability to downscale precipitation. Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods produce future surface temperatures for 2041-2060 that are markedly different from the historical climatology. However, the changes in projected precipitation differ between the two downscaling methods. Indeed, large uncertainties remain in terms of the direction and magnitude of future precipitation changes over China.

  11. Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

    PubMed

    Lake, Iain R; Jones, Natalia R; Agnew, Maureen; Goodess, Clare M; Giorgi, Filippo; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Semenov, Mikhail A; Solomon, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan; Vautard, Robert; Epstein, Michelle M

    2017-03-01

    Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR

  12. Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Lake, Iain R.; Jones, Natalia R.; Agnew, Maureen; Goodess, Clare M.; Giorgi, Filippo; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Solomon, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan; Vautard, Robert; Epstein, Michelle M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. Objectives: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. Methods: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose–response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Results: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041–2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Conclusions: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation

  13. Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

    2010-11-16

    Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

  14. Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

    PubMed Central

    Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise P.; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A.; Janetos, Anthony C.

    2010-01-01

    Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m−2 (approximately 526 ppm CO2) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies. PMID:20921413

  15. Past and future effects of climate change on spatially heterogeneous vegetation activity in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Jiangbo; Jiao, Kewei; Wu, Shaohong; Ma, Danyang; Zhao, Dongsheng; Yin, Yunhe; Dai, Erfu

    2017-07-01

    Climate change is a major driver of vegetation activity but its complex ecological relationships impede research efforts. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic characteristics of climate change effects on vegetation activity in China from the 1980s to the 2010s and from 2021 to 2050 were investigated using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The GWR model was based on combined datasets of satellite vegetation index, climate observation and projection, and future vegetation productivity simulation. Our results revealed that the significantly positive precipitation-vegetation relationship was and will be mostly distributed in North China. However, the regions with temperature-dominated distribution of vegetation activity were and will be mainly located in South China. Due to the varying climate features and vegetation cover, the spatial correlation between vegetation activity and climate change may be altered. There will be different dominant climatic factors for vegetation activity distribution in some regions such as Northwest China, and even opposite correlations in Northeast China. Additionally, the response of vegetation activity to precipitation will move southward in the next three decades. In contrast, although the high warming rate will restrain the vegetation activity, precipitation variability could modify hydrothermal conditions for vegetation activity. This observation is exemplified in the projected future enhancement of vegetation activity in the Tibetan Plateau and weakened vegetation activity in East and Middle China. Furthermore, the vegetation in most parts of North China may adapt to an arid environment, whereas in many southern areas, vegetation will be repressed by water shortage in the future.

  16. Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora.

    PubMed

    Loarie, Scott R; Carter, Benjamin E; Hayhoe, Katharine; McMahon, Sean; Moe, Richard; Knight, Charles A; Ackerly, David D

    2008-06-25

    The flora of California, a global biodiversity hotspot, includes 2387 endemic plant taxa. With anticipated climate change, we project that up to 66% will experience >80% reductions in range size within a century. These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics. Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations. California's varied terrain could cause species to move in very different directions, breaking up present-day floras. However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist. Protecting these potential future refugia and facilitating species dispersal will be essential to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change.

  17. Projection of future changes in climate in the Mediterranean Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    -Eleni Sotiropoulou, Rafaella; Stergiou, Ioannis; Tagaris, Efthimios

    2017-04-01

    Mediterranean since it is one of the regions that will be affected most by climate change. The objective of this study is to estimate changes in the future climatic parameters in the Mediterranean Region at a very fine grid resolution. WRF model is used to dynamically downscale NASA GISS GCM ModelE simulations in the Mediterranean at a 9 km by 9 km resolution for five current (2008-2012) and five future (2048-2052) years using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Results for temperature and precipitation are assessed annually and seasonally providing information for the estimated changes in a very fine scale across the Mediterranean Region. The estimated changes suggest that precipitation change is much more location dependent compared to temperature. Acknowledgments LIFE CLIMATREE project "A novel approach for accounting & monitoring carbon sequestration of tree crops and their potential as carbon sink areas" (LIFE14 CCM/GR/000635).

  18. Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus.

    PubMed

    Ogden, Nicholas H; Milka, Radojević; Caminade, Cyril; Gachon, Philippe

    2014-12-02

    Since the 1980s, populations of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus have become established in south-eastern, eastern and central United States, extending to approximately 40°N. Ae. albopictus is a vector of a wide range of human pathogens including dengue and chikungunya viruses, which are currently emerging in the Caribbean and Central America and posing a threat to North America. The risk of Ae. albopictus expanding its geographic range in North America under current and future climate was assessed using three climatic indicators of Ae. albopictus survival: overwintering conditions (OW), OW combined with annual air temperature (OWAT), and a linear index of precipitation and air temperature suitability expressed through a sigmoidal function (SIG). The capacity of these indicators to predict Ae. albopictus occurrence was evaluated using surveillance data from the United States. Projected future climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus was obtained using output of nine Regional Climate Model experiments (RCMs). OW and OWAT showed >90% specificity and sensitivity in predicting observed Ae. albopictus occurrence and also predicted moderate to high risk of Ae. albopictus invasion in Pacific coastal areas of the Unites States and Canada under current climate. SIG also well predicted observed Ae. albopictus occurrence (ROC area under the curve was 0.92) but predicted wider current climatic suitability in the north-central and north-eastern United States and south-eastern Canada. RCM output projected modest (circa 500 km) future northward range expansion of Ae. albopictus by the 2050s when using OW and OWAT indicators, but greater (600-1000 km) range expansion, particularly in eastern and central Canada, when using the SIG indicator. Variation in future possible distributions of Ae. albopictus was greater amongst the climatic indicators used than amongst the RCM experiments. Current Ae. albopictus distributions were well predicted by simple climatic indicators

  19. Wildfires in southern California: climatic drivers and future projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Y.; Randerson, J. T.; Capps, S. B.; Hall, A. D.; Faivre, N.; Goulden, M.

    2013-12-01

    Southern California experiences different types of fires, including large wind-driven fires that typically occur during fall Santa Ana events and other fires that occur during the hot and dry Mediterranean summer. Both types of fires contribute significantly to annual burned area and to regional fire-induced economic losses. An improved understanding of fire-climate relations is needed for predicting how these fires are going to change in the future and for better fire management. We developed statistical models to quantify the impacts of climate on monthly Santa Ana and non-Santa Ana fires using a 51-year dataset of fire perimeters and climate variables including Santa Ana frequency and duration, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and precipitation. For Santa Ana fires, climate variables explained approximately 58% of the seasonal and interannual variability in the number of fires, 31% of the variability in fire size, and 57% of the variability in burned area. For non-Santa Ana fires, climate explained 36%, 17%, and 22%, respectively, of the same fire variables. The number of Santa Ana fires increased during years when humidity during Santa Ana events and fall precipitation were below average, indicating that weather-driven changes in fuel moisture were a key controller of fire events. In contrast, cumulative precipitation from the previous 3 winters regulated the number of summer fires significantly, probably by increasing fine fuel density and fuel connectivity between infrastructure and interior shrublands. Relative humidity and current year precipitation prior to fire season influenced summer fire size. To predict future fires, the fire-climate models were then driven by the dynamically down-scaled climate projections from 5 climate models for the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). We found that burned area is likely to significantly increase by the mid-21st century for non-Santa Ana fires, mostly due to increases in fire size

  20. Identifying future threats: impact of climate change on wheat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semenov, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    The frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are likely to increase with global warming. However, it is not clear how these events might affect agricultural crops and whether yield losses resulting from severe droughts or heat stress will increase in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of two impact indices for wheat: the probability of heat stress around flowering and the severity of drought stress. To compute these indices, we used a wheat simulation model combined with high-resolution climate scenarios based on the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator and the output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model at 18 sites in England and Wales. Despite higher temperature and lower summer precipitation predicted in the UK for the 2050s, the reduction in grain yield related to drought stress is predicted to be smaller than that at present, because wheat will mature earlier in a warmer climate and avoid severe summer drought. However, the probability of heat stress around flowering, that affects pollination and might result in considerable yield losses, is predicted to increase significantly. Breeding strategies for the future climate might need to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high temperature rather than to drought.

  1. Projected changes to Tasman Sea eddies in a future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliver, Eric C. J.; O'Kane, Terence J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2015-11-01

    The Tasman Sea is a hot spot of ocean warming, that is linked to the increased poleward influence of the East Australian Current (EAC) over recent decades. Specifically, the EAC produces mesoscale eddies which have significant impacts on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the Tasman Sea. To effectively consider and explain potential eddy changes in the next 50 years, we use high-resolution dynamically downscaled climate change simulations to characterize the projected future marine climate and mesoscale eddies in the Tasman Sea through the 2060s. We assess changes in the marine climate and the eddy field using bulk statistics and by detecting and tracking individual eddies. We find that the eddy kinetic energy is projected to increase along southeast Australia. In addition, we find that eddies in the projected future climate are composed of a higher proportion of anticyclonic eddies in this region and that these eddies are longer lived and more stable. This amounts to nearly a doubling of eddy-related southward temperature transport in the upper 200 m of the Tasman Sea. These changes are concurrent with increases in baroclinic and barotropic instabilities focused around the EAC separation point. This poleward transport and increase in eddy activity would be expected to also increase the frequency of sudden warming events, including ocean temperature extremes, with potential impacts on marine fisheries, aquaculture, and biodiversity off Tasmania's east coast, through direct warming or competition/predation from invasive migrating species.

  2. Changes in Convective Rainfall in future climates over Western Europe.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadian, A.; Burton, R.; Blyth, A. M.; Mobbs, S.; Warner, J.; Groves, J.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Tye, M. R.; Thielen, J.

    2016-12-01

    This project aims to analyse extreme convective weather events over the European domain in a future climate scenario using the Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF). Climate models have insufficient resolution to properly simulate small meso-scale precipitation events which are critical in understanding climate change. Use of a weather model is specifically designed to resolve small (and large) scale processes and in particular to be convection permitting. Changes in extreme weather events in the future climate can be represented as small scale processes and regional meso-scale precipitation events. A channel outer domain (D01), with a resolution of 20km at +/-300 N/S and 8km at 680N, drives a one way nested inner domain resolution which is a factor of 5:1 smaller. For calibration purposes, the outer domain is driven at the Northern / Southern boundaries either by ERA-interim or bias corrected data CCSM for 1989-1995. For the future simulations, the outer domain is driven by CCSM data for 2020-2025 and 2030-2035. An initial analysis for the inner domain convection over Western Europe will be presented. This presentation will provide details of the project. An inter-comparison of the simulations driven for 1990-1995 will provide information on the applicability of using the climate data driven results for the analysis of the future years. Initial plots of changes in precipitation over the future decades will focus on the summer precipitation, providing mean and standard deviation changes. The results indicate that the summer months are dryer, the wet events become shorter, with longer dry periods. The peak precipitation for the events does not increase, but the average rainfall and the amount of heavy rain (>7.6mm / hour) does increase. Future plans for use of the data will be discussed. Use the output data to drive the EFAS (European Flood model) to examine the predicted changes in quantity and frequency of severe and hazardous convective rainfall events and

  3. Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

    PubMed Central

    Willis, K. J.; Bennett, K. D.; Burrough, S. L.; Macias-Fauria, M.; Tovar, C.

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records. PMID:23878343

  4. Assessing the exposure of lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) to future climate change.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Andreas L S; Pie, Marcio R; Passos, Fernando C

    2014-06-01

    Understanding how biodiversity will respond to climate change is a major challenge in conservation science. Climatic changes are likely to impose serious threats to many organisms, especially those with narrow distribution ranges, small populations and low dispersal capacity. Lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) are endangered primates endemic to Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF), and all four living species are typical examples of these aggravating conditions. Here, we integrate ecological niche modeling and GIS-based information about BAF remnants and protected areas to estimate the exposure (i.e., the extent of climate change predicted to be experienced by a species) of current suitable habitats to climate change for 2050 and 2080, and to evaluate the efficacy of existing reserves to protect climatically suitable areas. Niche models were built using Maxent and then projected onto seven global circulation models derived from the A1B climatic scenario. According to our projections, the occurrence area of L. caissara will be little exposed to climate change. Western populations of L. chrysomelas could be potentially exposed, while climatically suitable habitats will be maintained only in part of the eastern region. Protected areas that presently harbor large populations of L. chrysopygus and L. rosalia will not retain climatic suitability by 2080. Monitoring trends of exposed populations and protecting areas predicted to hold suitable conditions should be prioritized. Given the potential exposure of key lion tamarin populations, we stress the importance of conducting additional studies to assess other aspects of their vulnerability (i.e., sensitivity to climate and adaptive capacity) and, therefore, to provide a more solid framework for future management decisions in the context of climate change. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Perceptible changes in regional precipitation in a future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahlstein, Irina; Portmann, Robert W.; Daniel, John S.; Solomon, Susan; Knutti, Reto

    2012-03-01

    Evidence is strong that the changes observed in the Earth's globally averaged temperature over the past half-century are caused to a large degree by human activities. Efforts to document accompanying precipitation changes in observations have met with limited success, and have been primarily focussed on large-scale regions in order to reduce the relative impact of the natural variability of precipitation as compared to any potential forced change. Studies have not been able to identify statistically significant changes in observed precipitation on small spatial scales. General circulation climate models offer the possibility to extend the analysis of precipitation changes into the future, to determine when simulated changes may emerge from the simulated variability locally as well as regionally. Here we estimate the global temperature increase needed for the precipitation “signal” to emerge from the “noise” of interannual variability within various climatic regions during their wet season. The climatic regions are defined based on cluster analysis. The dry season is not included due to poor model performance as compared to measurements during the observational period. We find that at least a 1.4°C warmer climate compared with the early 20th century is needed for precipitation changes to become statistically significant in any of the analysed climate regions. By the end of this century, it is likely that many land regions will experience statistically significant mean precipitation changes during wet season relative to the early 20th century based on an A1B scenario.

  6. Biocrust spectral response as affected by changing climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Guirado, Emilio; Escribano, Paula; Reyes, Andres; Weber, Bettina

    2017-04-01

    Drylands are characterized by scarce vegetation coverage and low rates of biological activity, both constrained by water scarcity. Under these conditions, biocrusts form key players of ecosystem functioning. They comprise complex poikilohydric communities of cyanobacteria, algae, lichens and bryophytes together with heterotrophic bacteria, archaea and fungi, which cover the uppermost soil layer. Biocrusts can cope with prolonged phases of drought, being rapidly re-activated when water becomes available again. Upon reactivation, biocrusts almost immediately turn green, fixing atmospheric carbon and nitrogen and increasing ecosystem productivity. However, due to their inconspicuous growth they have only rarely been analysed and spatially and temporally continuous information on their response to water pulses is missing. These data are particularly important under changing climatic conditions predicting an increase in aridity and variations in precipitation patterns within most of the dryland regions. In the present study, we used multi-temporal series of NDVI obtained from LANDSAT images to analyze biocrust and vegetation response to water pulses within the South African Succulent Karoo and we predicted their future response under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that biocrust and vegetation greenness are controlled by aridity, solar radiation and soil water content, showing similar annual patterns, with minimum values during dry periods that increased within the rainy season and decreased again after the onset of drought. However, biocrusts responded faster to water availability and turned green almost immediately after small rains, producing a small NDVI peak only few days after rainfall, whereas more time was needed for vegetation to grow new green tissue. However, once the photosynthetic tissue of vegetation was restored, it caused the highest increase of NDVI values after the rain. Predicted changes in precipitation patterns and aridity

  7. Snow-atmosphere coupling in current and future climates over North America in the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tefera Diro, Gulilat; Sushama, Laxmi

    2016-04-01

    The influence of snow variation on climate variability over North America is assessed using the fifth generation of Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). For this, we first carried out a suite of CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, whereby the snow was either prescribed (uncoupled) or allowed to evolve interactively (coupled) during the model integration. Results indicate a systematic influence of snow on the inter-annual variability of air and surface temperature throughout winter and spring seasons. In the coupled simulations, where the snow depth and snow cover were allowed to evolve freely, the inter-annual variability of surface and near surface air temperatures were found to be larger and explains up to 70% of the surface temperature variation over northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. The impact of snow is found to be stronger in spring than in winter, since in spring season both albedo and hydrological effects contribute to the variability in temperature. To study projected changes to snow-atmosphere coupling in future climate, coupled and uncoupled CRCM5 simulations, driven by coupled GCMs, were performed, for current (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100) climates. Coupling regions in the GCM-driven current climate simulations are similar to those obtained with ERA-Interim driven CRCM5 simulations discussed above. In future climate, snow-temperature coupling shows some change in spatial structures and in magnitudes. These results suggest that accurate initialization of snow condition could potentially be helpful to improve seasonal prediction skill over these snow-atmosphere coupling hotspot regions.

  8. Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

    2015-06-01

    Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

  9. Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Rasmussen, Roy; Barlage, Mike; Newman, Andrew J.; Prein, Andreas F.; Chen, Fei; Chen, Liang; Clark, Martyn; Dai, Aiguo; Dudhia, Jimy; Eidhammer, Trude; Gochis, David; Gutmann, Ethan; Kurkute, Sopan; Li, Yanping; Thompson, Gregory; Yates, David

    2017-07-01

    Orographic precipitation and snowpack provide a vital water resource for the western U.S., while convective precipitation accounts for a significant part of annual precipitation in the eastern U.S. As a result, water managers are keenly interested in their fate under climate change. However, previous studies of water cycle changes in the U.S. have been conducted with climate models of relatively coarse resolution, leading to potential misrepresentation of key physical processes. This paper presents results from a high-resolution climate change simulation that permits convection and resolves mesoscale orography at 4-km grid spacing over much of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two 13-year simulations were performed, consisting of a retrospective simulation (October 2000-September 2013) with initial and boundary conditions from ERA-interim and a future climate sensitivity simulation with modified reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions through adding the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. The retrospective simulation is evaluated by validating against Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) and an ensemble of gridded observational datasets. It shows overall good performance capturing the annual/seasonal/sub-seasonal precipitation and surface temperature climatology except for a summer dry and warm bias in the central U.S. In particular, the WRF seasonal precipitation agrees with SNOTEL observations within a few percent over the mountain ranges, providing confidence in the model's estimation of western U.S. seasonal snowfall and snowpack. The future climate simulation forced with warmer and moister perturbed boundary conditions enhances annual and winter-spring-fall seasonal precipitation over most of the contiguous United States (CONUS), but suppresses summertime precipitation in the central U.S. The WRF-downscaled climate change simulations provide a high-resolution dataset (i.e., High-Resolution CONUS

  10. Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Rasmussen, Roy; Barlage, Mike; Newman, Andrew J.; Prein, Andreas F.; Chen, Fei; Chen, Liang; Clark, Martyn; Dai, Aiguo; Dudhia, Jimy; Eidhammer, Trude; Gochis, David; Gutmann, Ethan; Kurkute, Sopan; Li, Yanping; Thompson, Gregory; Yates, David

    2016-08-01

    Orographic precipitation and snowpack provide a vital water resource for the western U.S., while convective precipitation accounts for a significant part of annual precipitation in the eastern U.S. As a result, water managers are keenly interested in their fate under climate change. However, previous studies of water cycle changes in the U.S. have been conducted with climate models of relatively coarse resolution, leading to potential misrepresentation of key physical processes. This paper presents results from a high-resolution climate change simulation that permits convection and resolves mesoscale orography at 4-km grid spacing over much of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two 13-year simulations were performed, consisting of a retrospective simulation (October 2000-September 2013) with initial and boundary conditions from ERA-interim and a future climate sensitivity simulation with modified reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions through adding the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. The retrospective simulation is evaluated by validating against Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) and an ensemble of gridded observational datasets. It shows overall good performance capturing the annual/seasonal/sub-seasonal precipitation and surface temperature climatology except for a summer dry and warm bias in the central U.S. In particular, the WRF seasonal precipitation agrees with SNOTEL observations within a few percent over the mountain ranges, providing confidence in the model's estimation of western U.S. seasonal snowfall and snowpack. The future climate simulation forced with warmer and moister perturbed boundary conditions enhances annual and winter-spring-fall seasonal precipitation over most of the contiguous United States (CONUS), but suppresses summertime precipitation in the central U.S. The WRF-downscaled climate change simulations provide a high-resolution dataset (i.e., High-Resolution CONUS

  11. Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bador, Margot; Terray, Laurent; Boé, Julien; Somot, Samuel; Alias, Antoinette; Gibelin, Anne-Laure; Dubuisson, Brigitte

    2017-07-01

    This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations and a pair of historical and scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations with the high-resolution (∼12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide a robust framework to examine the spatial distribution of these extreme events and their 21st century evolution. Five regions are identified with an extreme event spatial clustering algorithm applied to observed temperatures. They are used to diagnose the 21st century heatwave spatial patterns. In the 2070s, we find a simulated mega-heatwave as severe as the 2003 observed heatwave relative to its contemporaneous climate. A 20-member initial condition ensemble is used to assess the sensitivity of this future heatwave to the internal variability in the regional climate model and to pre-existing land surface conditions. Even in a much warmer and drier climate in France, late spring dry land conditions may lead to a significant amplification of summer extreme temperatures and heatwave intensity through limitations in evapotranspiration. By 2100, the increase in summer temperature maxima exhibits a range from 6 °C to almost 13 °C in the five regions in France, relative to historical maxima. These projections are comparable with the estimates given by a large number of global climate models.

  12. Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Condon, A. J.; Sheng, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Coastal storm surge and inundation from hurricanes is an ever-present threat along the eastern seaboard and Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with an increase in population and growth along the coast is the change in hurricane characteristics and sea level rise associated with climate change. Global estimates suggest that a warming planet will lead to more intense storms, although the frequency of landfalling hurricanes is expected to decrease. Estimates of sea level rise (SLR) vary widely between little to no acceleration in local rates to acceleration resulting in nearly 2 m of sea level rise by the end of the century. In order to assess the hazard in both future and present climates, a robust storm surge and inundation prediction system must be used to simulate the coastal response. Typically the hazard is reported in the form of a Base Flood Elevation (BFE) map or Maximum of Maximums (MOM) map, which are both computationally expensive to create as they require tens of thousands of numerical simulations. This study examines the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for projected climate change. The coastal inundation hazard is presented in the form of the BFE map and MOM map. The BFE is a probabilistic hazard map, in which the historic climatology of a region in terms of storm parameters (central pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, forward speed, direction of motion, and landfall location), is described probabilistically and is combined with the simulated surge response to determine the inundation for a set annual probability of occurrence or return period. The MOM is a worst case scenario for a given category of hurricane. In order to accurately simulate the storm surge and inundation CH3D-SSMS which has been validated for the region for hurricanes Charley and Wilma is used. To

  13. Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Huang, Yao; Ciais, Philippe; Elliott, Joshua; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lian, Xu; Liu, Yongwen; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peñuelas, Josep

    2016-12-19

    Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population(1-3). Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 ± 1.4% K(-1). Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 ± 0.4% K(-1)), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 ± 0.3% and -2.4 ± 3.7% K(-1), respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K(-1)). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 ± 1.4% K(-1)) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K(-1)) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.

  14. Climate: Is the past the key to the future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hay, W. W.; DeConto, R. M.; Wold, C. N.

    maximum. Anthropogenic activity has increased the CO2 content of the atmosphere to 130% of its previous Holocene level, probably higher than at any time during the past few million years. During the Late Cretaceous the atmospheric CO2 content was probably about four times that of the present, the level to which it may rise at the end of the next century. The results of a Campanian (80 Ma) climate simulation suggest that the positive feedback between CO2 and another important greenhouse gas, H2O, raised the earth's temperature to a level where latent heat transport became much more significant than it is presently, and operated efficiently at all latitudes. Atmospheric high- and low-pressure systems were as much the result of variations in the vapor content of the air as of temperature differences. In our present state of knowledge, future climate change is unpredictable because by adding CO2 to the atmosphere we are forcing the climate toward a ``greenhouse'' mode when it is accustomed to moving between the glacial-interglacial ``icehouse'' states that reflect the waxing and waning of ice sheets. At the same time we are replacing freely transpiring C3 plants with water-conserving C4 plants, producing a global vegetation complex that has no past analog. The past climates of the earth cannot be used as a direct guide to what may occur in the future. To understand what may happen in the future we must learn about the first principles of physics and chemistry related to the earth's system. The fundamental mechanisms of the climate system are best explored in simulations of the earth's ancient extreme climates.

  15. Climate sensitivity of Tibetan Plateau glaciers - past and future implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heyman, Jakob; Hubbard, Alun; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Harbor, Jonathan M.

    2013-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most extensively glaciated, non-Polar regions of the world, and its mountain glaciers are the primary source of melt water for several of the largest Asian rivers. During glacial cycles, Tibetan Plateau glaciers advanced and retreated multiple times, but remained restricted to the highest mountain areas as valley glaciers and ice caps. Because glacier extent is dominantly controlled by climate, the past extent of Tibetan glaciers provide information on regional climate. Here we present a study analyzing the past maximum extents of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau with the output of a 3D glacier model, in an effort to quantify Tibetan Plateau climate. We have mapped present-day glaciers and glacial landforms deposited by formerly more extensive glaciers in eight mountain regions across the Tibetan Plateau, allowing us to define present-day and past maximum glacier outlines. Using a high-resolution (250 m) higher-order glacier model calibrated against present-day glacier extents, we have quantified the climate perturbations required to expand present-day glaciers to their past maximum extents. We find that a modest cooling of at most 6°C for a few thousand years is enough to attain past maximum extents, even with 25-75% precipitation reduction. This evidence for limited cooling indicates that the temperature of the Tibetan Plateau remained relatively stable over Quaternary glacial cycles. Given the significant sensitivity to temperature change, the expectation is perhaps that a future warmer climate might result in intense glacier reduction. We have tested this hypothesis and modeled the future glacier development for the three mountain regions with the largest present-day glacier cover using a projected warming of 2.8 to 6.2°C within 100 years (envelope limits from IPCC). These scenarios result in dramatic glacier reductions, including 24-100% ice volume loss after 100 years and 77-100% ice volume loss after 300 years.

  16. Linking Aerosol Source Activities to Present and Future Climate Effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D.; Menon, S.; Unger, N.

    2007-05-01

    Aerosol source sectors (transport, power, industry, residential, biomass burning) generate distinct mixtures of aerosol species. These mixtures in turn have different effects on climate. As sectoral emissions change in coming decades, whether by regulation or not, it is helpful to link pollution from source types to climate consequences. We do so, using our global (GISS GCM) aerosol model for present and future IPCC SRES scenarios. According to our model, residential and transport sectors have net positive 1995 aerosol forcings (0.04 and 0.03 W m-2) due to their large black carbon contents. However, the sulfate-dominated power and industry sectors have net negative 1995 forcings (-0.10 and -0.09 W m-2). Due to the near-balance of absorbing and scattering components, biomass burning forcing is small. For the 2050 SRES A1B scenario, the net (negative) aerosol forcing is double 1995 due primarily to increased sulfur emissions in the industry and power sectors. For 2050 B1 the net (negative) forcing decreases relative to 1995, as sulfur emissions are reduced. Both future scenarios project decreasing residential emissions. Yet transport emissions are expected to remain significant and thus become the dominant source of warming aerosols in the future. Aerosol pollution is projected to shift southward relative to the present, as the current industrialized regions generally reduce emissions and tropical and southern hemispheric regions continue to develop. Similar to these SRES scenarios, IIASA scenarios project a decline in residential emissions; however IIASA is more optimistic about transport sector emissions reductions. We will conduct present-day climate experiments, including aerosol direct and indirect effects, to study impacts of power and transport sectors on climate features such as air temperature and hydrologic cycle.

  17. SIMULATION OF NET INFILTRATION FOR MODERN AND POTENTIAL FUTURE CLIMATES

    SciTech Connect

    J.A. Heveal

    2000-06-16

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes enhancements made to the infiltration model documented in Flint et al. (1996) and documents an analysis using the enhanced model to generate spatial and temporal distributions over a model domain encompassing the Yucca Mountain site, Nevada. Net infiltration is the component of infiltrated precipitation, snowmelt, or surface water run-on that has percolated below the zone of evapotranspiration as defined by the depth of the effective root zone, the average depth below the ground surface (at a given location) from which water is removed by evapotranspiration. The estimates of net infiltration are used for defining the upper boundary condition for the site-scale 3-dimensional Unsaturated-Zone Ground Water Flow and Transport (UZ flow and transport) Model (CRWMS M&O 2000a). The UZ flow and transport model is one of several process models abstracted by the Total System Performance Assessment model to evaluate expected performance of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in terms of radionuclide transport (CRWMS M&O 1998). The net-infiltration model is important for assessing potential repository-system performance because output from this model provides the upper boundary condition for the UZ flow and transport model that is used to generate flow fields for evaluating potential radionuclide transport through the unsaturated zone. Estimates of net infiltration are provided as raster-based, 2-dimensional grids of spatially distributed, time-averaged rates for three different climate stages estimated as likely conditions for the next 10,000 years beyond the present. Each climate stage is represented using a lower bound, a mean, and an upper bound climate and corresponding net-infiltration scenario for representing uncertainty in the characterization of daily climate conditions for each climate stage, as well as potential climate variability within each climate stage. The set of nine raster grid maps provide spatially

  18. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    SciTech Connect

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O'Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in

  19. Forecasting Seasonal Water Needs Under Current and Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spisni, A.; Pratizzoli, W.; Tomei, F.; Mariani, M. C.; Villani, G.; Pavan, V.; Tomozeiu, R.; Marletto, V.

    2010-12-01

    This work outlines the complex strategy being developed at ARPA-SIMC for the integrated exploitation of remote sensing, soil water modelling, seasonal forecasting and climate projections, in view of better monitoring and management of water in agriculture at the scale of the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy. Remote sensing and field surveys are being used to map crops early in the season, a geographical soil water model uses the crop map together with a soil map and weather data to simulate soil water status up to the beginning of the irrigation season. Downscaled seasonal forecasts are then used to assess the summer irrigation needs. This operational framework is also used to evaluate the impacts of climate change for years 2021-2050 relative to current climate conditions. First tests on kiwifruit in the Romagna subregion show a modest increase in irrigation water demand.

  20. When it rains, it pours: future climate extremes and health.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Grabow, Maggie L; Limaye, Vijay S

    2014-01-01

    The accelerating accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere is changing global environmental conditions in unprecedented and potentially irreversible ways. Climate change poses a host of challenges to the health of populations through complex direct and indirect mechanisms. The direct effects include an increased frequency of heat waves, rising sea levels that threaten low-lying communities, anticipated extremes in the global hydrologic cycle (droughts, floods, and intense storms), and adverse effects on agricultural production and fisheries due to environmental stressors and changes in land use. Indirectly, climate change is anticipated to threaten health by worsening urban air pollution and increasing rates of infectious (particularly waterborne and vector-borne) disease transmission. To provide a state-of-the-science review on the health consequences of a changing climate. Environmental public health researchers have concluded that, on balance, adverse health outcomes will dominate under these changed climatic conditions. The number of pathways through which climate change can affect the health of populations makes this environmental health threat one of the largest and most formidable of the new century. Geographic location plays an influential role the potential for adverse health effects caused by climate change, and certain regions and populations are more vulnerable than others to expected health effects. Two kinds of strategies are available for responding to climate change: mitigation policies (which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation measures (relating to preparedness for anticipated impacts). To better understand and address the complex nature of health risks posed by climate change, interdisciplinary collaboration is critical. Efforts to move beyond our current reliance on fossil fuels to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources may offer some of the greatest health opportunities in more than a century and cobenefits

  1. Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

    PubMed

    Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

    2016-11-01

    Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

  2. Langley Research Center Utility Risk from Future Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    De Young, Russell J.; Ganoe, Rene

    2015-01-01

    The successful operation of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) depends on services provided by several public utility companies. These include Newport News Waterworks, Dominion Virginia Power, Virginia Natural Gas and Hampton Roads Sanitation District. LaRC's plan to respond to future climate change should take into account how these companies plan to avoid interruption of services while minimizing cost to the customers. This report summarizes our findings from publicly available documents on how each company plans to respond. This will form the basis for future planning for the Center. Our preliminary findings show that flooding and severe storms could interrupt service from the Waterworks and Sanitation District but the potential is low due to plans in place to address climate change on their system. Virginia Natural Gas supplies energy to produce steam but most current steam comes from the Hampton trash burning plant, thus interruption risk is low. Dominion Virginia Power does not address climate change impacts on their system in their public reports. The potential interruption risk is considered to be medium. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District is projecting a major upgrade of their system to mitigate clean water inflow and infiltration. This will reduce infiltration and avoid overloading the pump stations and treatment plants.

  3. Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

    PubMed Central

    Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

    2016-01-01

    Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. PMID:28861462

  4. Calibrating vascular plant abundance for detecting future climate changes in Oregon and Washington, USA

    Treesearch

    Timothy J. Brady; Vicente J. Monleon; Andrew N. Gray

    2010-01-01

    We propose using future vascular plant abundances as indicators of future climate in a way analogous to the reconstruction of past environments by many palaeoecologists. To begin monitoring future short-term climate changes in the forests of Oregon and Washington, USA, we developed a set of transfer functions for a present-day calibration set consisting of climate...

  5. Current and Future Effects of Climate Change on Montane Amphibians

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corn, S.

    2002-05-01

    Breeding phenology of amphibians in inextricably linked to weather, and change in the timing of breeding resulting from climate change may have consequences for the fitness of individuals and may affect persistence of amphibian populations. Amphibians in some north temperate locations have been observed to breed earlier in recent years in response to warmer spring temperatures, but this is not a universal phenomenon. In mountain populations, phenology is influenced by snow deposition as much as temperature. A trend towards earlier breeding, associated with increasing El Niño frequency, may be occurring in the Cascade Mountains in Oregon, but only at lower elevations. There is no evidence for changes in the dates of breeding activity by amphibians in the Rocky Mountains. Too few amphibian species have been studied, and those for which data exist have been studied for too brief a span of years to allow general conclusions about the effects of climate change. However, regardless of whether climate change has contributed to current amphibian declines, changes in temperature and the extent and duration of snow cover predicted for the next century will have increasingly severe consequences for the persistence of some species. Additional observations from amphibian populations, and spatial and temporal modeling of climate variables are needed to generate predictions of past and future breeding phenology, and the effects on amphibian population dynamics.

  6. The future of the North American carbon cycle - projections and associated climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Chatterjee, A.; Cooley, S. R.; Dunne, J. P.; Hoffman, F. M.; Luo, Y.; Moore, D. J.; Ohrel, S. B.; Poulter, B.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Tzortziou, M.; Walker, A. P.; Mayes, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    Approximately half of anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is taken up annually by carbon sinks on the land and in the oceans. However, there are key uncertainties in how carbon uptake by terrestrial, ocean, and freshwater systems will respond to, and interact with, climate into the future. Here, we outline the current state of understanding on the future carbon budget of these major reservoirs within North America and the globe. We examine the drivers of future carbon cycle changes, including carbon-climate feedbacks, atmospheric composition, nutrient availability, and human activity and management decisions. Progress has been made at identifying vulnerabilities in carbon pools, including high-latitude permafrost, peatlands, freshwater and coastal wetlands, and ecosystems subject to disturbance events, such as insects, fire and drought. However, many of these processes/pools are not well represented in current models, and model intercomparison studies have shown a range in carbon cycle response to factors such as climate and CO2 fertilization. Furthermore, as model complexity increases, understanding the drivers of model spread becomes increasingly more difficult. As a result, uncertainties in future carbon cycle projections are large. It is also uncertain how management decisions and policies will impact future carbon stocks and flows. In order to guide policy, a better understanding of the risk and magnitude of North American carbon cycle changes is needed. This requires that future carbon cycle projections be conditioned on current observations and be reported with sufficient confidence and fully specified uncertainties.

  7. Simulating malaria transmission in the current and future climate of West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Bomblies, A.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria transmission in West Africa is closely tied to climate, as rain fed water pools provide breeding habitat for the anopheles mosquito vector, and temperature affects the mosquito's ability to spread disease. We present results of a highly detailed, spatially explicit mechanistic modelling study exploring the relationships between the environment and malaria in the current and future climate of West Africa. A mechanistic model of human immunity was incorporated into an existing agent-based model of malaria transmission, allowing us to move beyond entomological measures such as mosquito density and vectorial capacity to analyzing the prevalence of the malaria parasite within human populations. The result is a novel modelling tool that mechanistically simulates all of the key processes linking environment to malaria transmission. Simulations were conducted across climate zones in West Africa, linking temperature and rainfall to entomological and epidemiological variables with a focus on nonlinearities due to threshold effects and interannual variability. Comparisons to observations from the region confirmed that the model provides a reasonable representation of the entomological and epidemiological conditions in this region. We used the predictions of future climate from the most credible CMIP5 climate models to predict the change in frequency and severity of malaria epidemics in West Africa as a result of climate change.

  8. Future risk of global drought from downscaled, bias corrected climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, Justin; Li, Haibin; Wood, Eric

    2010-05-01

    Understanding how changes in drought conditions will develop in the 21st century, including changes in severity, extent, and duration, is of great importance to many sectors such as water resources management and agricultural activity. There may also be profound implications for the occurrence of wildfires and heat waves that are associated with dry conditions. Recent severe droughts in the Western U.S., southeast Australia, Eastern Africa, Europe and northern China are testament to the impacts that large scale drought can have and are perhaps indicators of things to come. The direct use of climate model outputs for analysis of future drought however is problematic because of known model biases, particularly model simulated precipitation and temperature fields that have first order impact on droughts. Here we present a comprehensive statistical analysis of future drought conditions globally in a multi-model, multi-scenario based framework. The analysis is based on recently completed simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface model (LSM), forced by downscaled, bias corrected climate projections using a newly developed equidistant quantile matching method. This improves upon traditional quantile matching methods by taking into account changes in the future projection climate distribution and better represents extreme years that are most associated with the development of drought. We apply this to a suite of climate models for monthly precipitation and temperature but show how this can be extended to radiation, humidity and windspeed to capture associated changes and interplay among these associated drivers, although this is limited to a small set of climate models with available data. Further enhancements include improved temporal downscaling to account for changes in, for example, storm intensities and diurnal temperature range. The bias corrected and downscaled climate forcings are used to drive the LSM to generate future projections of the

  9. Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

    2017-01-01

    Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD. PMID:28797067

  10. Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Hirata, Akiko; Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

    2017-01-01

    Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

  11. Climate modelling and near future solar power assessment in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaetani, Marco; Vignati, Elisabetta; Huld, Thomas; Monforti-Ferrario, Fabio; Wilson, Julian; Dosio, Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    In this work the near future (2030-2050) solar power in Europe is assessed using numerical experiments. The photovoltaic energy is computed on the basis of the solar radiation and air temperature simulated by regional climate models run in the framework of the FP6-ENSEMBLES project. The multi-model simulation of the climate evolution over Europe is performed at a 25 km resolution using the IPCC A1B scenario, and the period 1961-2050 is analyzed. The A1B scenario assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, with a global population peak in mid-century. Preliminary results show a general increase of near-surface air temperature, accompanied by an increase (reduction) of the solar radiation in Southern (Northern) Europe, with significant positive effects on the photovoltaic energy availability over Western Europe.

  12. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersson, Agneta

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4oC warming and 50-80% decreasing ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30% in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants. Salinity will decrease by about 2 units. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favoured by AOM while phytoplankton may become hampered. More trophic levels in the food web will increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as effects of anthrophogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach and encompass both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g. bacterial) processes.

  13. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  14. Evaluation of the transferability of hydrological model parameters for simulations under changed climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bastola, S.; Murphy, C.; Sweeney, J.

    2011-06-01

    Conceptual hydrological models are widely used for climate change impact assessment. The implicit assumption in most such work is that the parameters estimated from observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. This paper evaluates a simple threshold based approach for testing this assumption, where a set of behavioural simulators are identified for different climatic conditions for the future simulation i.e. wet, average and dry conditions. These simulators were derived using three different data sets that are generated by sampling a block of one year of data without replacement from the observations such that they define the different climatic conditions. The simulators estimated from the wet climatic data set showed the tendency to underestimate flow when applied to dry data set and vice versa. However, the performances of the three sets of basin simulators on chronologically coherent data are identical to the simulators identified from a sufficiently long data series that contains both wet and dry climatic conditions. The results presented suggest that the issue of time invariance in the value of parameters has a minimal effect on the simulation if the change in precipitation is less than 10 % of the data used for calibration.

  15. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Treesearch

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  16. Quantifying the past and future impact of climate on outbreak patterns of bank voles (Myodes glareolus).

    PubMed

    Imholt, Christian; Reil, Daniela; Eccard, Jana A; Jacob, Daniela; Hempelmann, Nils; Jacob, Jens

    2015-02-01

    Central European outbreak populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus Schreber) are known to cause damage in forestry and to transmit the most common type of Hantavirus (Puumala virus, PUUV) to humans. A sound estimation of potential effects of future climate scenarios on population dynamics is a prerequisite for long-term management strategies. Historic abundance time series were used to identify the key weather conditions associated with bank vole abundance, and were extrapolated to future climate scenarios to derive potential long-term changes in bank vole abundance dynamics. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed the most relevant weather parameters associated with high and low bank vole abundances. Summer temperatures 2 years prior to trapping had the highest impact on abundance fluctuation. Extrapolation of the identified parameters to future climate conditions revealed an increase in years with high vole abundance. Key weather patterns associated with vole abundance reflect the importance of superabundant food supply through masting to the occurrence of bank vole outbreaks. Owing to changing climate, these outbreaks are predicted potentially to increase in frequency 3-4-fold by the end of this century. This may negatively affect damage patterns in forestry and the risk of human PUUV infection in the long term. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  17. Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

  18. Role of Future Climate-induced Changes in Biogenic Emissions in Predictions of Future Ozone and Aerosols

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, W.; Liao, H.; Wang, H.

    2008-12-01

    An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model, the BIOME4, is coupled with a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols (SOA). The vegetation-chemistry-aerosol-climate coupling allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by climate-induced changes in natural vegetation and consequently in biogenic emissions. We simulate differences between years 2000 and 2100. Equilibrium climate change over 2000-2100 is driven by changes in long-lived greenhouse gases, tropospheric ozone, and anthropogenic aerosols. The year 2100 concentrations of greenhouse gases as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the IPCC scenario A2. Global biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpene are estimated to be, respectively, 504 and 133 Tg C yr-1 with present-day climatological and land-cover conditions, 868 and 255 Tg C yr-1 with year 2100 climate but present-day land-cover, as well as 885 and 301 Tg C yr-1 with both year 2100 climate and natural vegetation. Climate-induced changes in natural vegetation are shown to be important for simulations of future tropospheric ozone and aerosols, especially for nitrate and SOA. The global burden of biogenic SOA is predicted to double between present-day and year 2100. We compare the direct radiative forcing by SOA with the forcing values of other anthropogenic aerosols.

  19. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-11-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

  20. Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates.

    PubMed

    Falagas, Matthew E; Bliziotis, Ioannis A; Kosmidis, John; Daikos, George K

    2010-12-01

    About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections.

  1. Future flood hazard under climate change in the Mekong Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apel, H.; Dung, N. V.; Delgado, J. M.; Merz, B.

    2012-04-01

    The main characteristic of flood hazard estimations is the association of a probability of occurrence to a flood event of a defined magnitude. This is usually performed via frequency analysis assuming stationarity and independence of the analyzed time series. This assumption, however, often does not hold true even for historical records and periods and it will be even more challenged under the expected impact of climate change to the water cycle in general and flood probabilities and magnitudes in particular. Thus strategies and methods have to be developed and evaluated for accounting for climate change impacts on flood hazard. In the presented contribution two options are presented and compared for the Mekong Delta, one of the most endangered areas with respect to climate change world-wide. The first method takes non-stationarity explicitly into account by analyzing the observed time series of peak discharge and flood volume at the upper boundary of the Delta with non-stationary extreme value statistics. The two variables and their dependence are modeled by a copula, coupling their marginal distributions to a joint bivariate distribution. Using this copula in combination with characteristic normalized flood hydrographs, probabilistic flood hazard maps for the Mekong Delta are generated via a large scale hydrodynamic model of the Delta embedded in a Monte Carlo framework for the reference year 2009. In order to account for climate change the observed trend in the non-stationary extreme value distribution was simply extrapolated to two future time horizons 2030 and 2050. However, the extrapolations of the trends are certainly associated with high level of uncertainty, in particular for time horizons in the far future. Thus we compare the simple extrapolation approach with an approach deriving future flood hazard in the Mekong Delta by establishing direct correlations between monsoon indexes describing the intensity of the flood triggering monsoon activities and the

  2. Potential impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on decadal regional climate change and interannual hemispherical climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiegl, Tobias; Langematz, Ulrike

    2016-04-01

    The political, technical and socio-economic developments of the next decades will determine the magnitude of 21st century climate change, since they are inextricably linked to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. To assess the range of uncertainty that is related to these developments, it is common to assume different emission scenarios for 21st climate projections. While the uncertainties associated with the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing have been studied intensely, the contribution of natural climate drivers (particularly solar variability) to recent and future climate change are subject of intense debate. The past 1,000 years featured at least 5 excursions (lasting 60-100 years) of exceptionally low solar activity, induced by a weak magnetic field of the Sun, so called Grand Solar Minima. While the global temperature response to such a decrease in solar activity is assumed to be rather small, nonlinear mechanisms in the climate system might amplify the regional temperature signal. This hypothesis is supported by the last Grand Solar Minimum (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715) which coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch which is characterized by severe cold and hardship over Europe, North America and Asia. The long-lasting minimum of Solar Cycle 23 as well as the overall weak maximum of Cycle 24 reveal the possibility for a return to Grand Solar Minimum conditions within the next decades. The quantification of the implications of such a projected decrease in solar forcing is of ultimate importance, given the on-going public discussion of the role of carbon dioxide emissions for global warming, and the possible role a cooling due to decreasing solar activity could be ascribed to. Since there is still no clear consensus about the actual strength of the Maunder Minimum, we used 3 acknowledged solar reconstruction datasets that show significant differences in both, total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance (SSI) to simulate a future

  3. Global Change Impacts on Future Fire Regimes: Distinguishing Between Climate-limited vs Ignition-Limited Landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keeley, J. E.; Syphard, A. D.

    2016-12-01

    Global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts. Predicting how climates will impact future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned, however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models are needed that predict future seasonal temperature changes if we are to forecast future fire regimes in these forests. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited, and because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science, it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant on some landscapes, but where climate is relevant the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

  4. Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prudhomme, C.; Dadson, S.; Morris, D.; Williamson, J.; Goodsell, G.; Crooks, S.; Boelee, L.; Davies, H.; Buys, G.; Lafon, T.; Watts, G.

    2012-11-01

    The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment. Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for) and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation) and monthly (PE) time step as netCDF files. Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962-1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution) for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year. Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the dataset used to generate Future Flows Hydrology

  5. Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prudhomme, C.; Dadson, S.; Morris, D.; Williamson, J.; Goodsell, G.; Crooks, S.; Boelee, L.; Davies, H.; Buys, G.; Lafon, T.; Watts, G.

    2012-06-01

    1. The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable for climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment. 2. Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble Projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for) and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation) and monthly (PE) time step as NetCDF files. 3. Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962-1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution) for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman Montieth equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year. 4. Future Flows Climate is freely available for non commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the dataset used to generate Future

  6. Detecting future performance of the reservoirs under the changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biglarbeigi, Pardis; Strong, W. Alan; Griffiths, Philip

    2017-04-01

    hand, are defined based on the target of COP21, Paris which proposed to keep "the global temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius, while urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees", as well as temperatures higher than this limit to better address the effects of climate change. Numerical results of the proposed model are anticipated to represent the performance of the system by the year 2100 through RRV indices. RRV metrices are effective means of quantitative estimation of climate change impacts on reservoir system in order to obtain the potential policies to solve the future water supply issues.

  7. Heavy rainfall in future climate around the central Japan by pseudo global warming experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taniguchi, K.

    2012-12-01

    The central part of Japan sometimes suffers from heavy rainfall derived by a typhoon. In 2000, a severe heavy rainfall attacked the central Japan. The maximum hourly precipitation in Aichi prefecture during this event was 114 mm, and daily precipitation 492 mm. On the other hand, it is reported that, in future climate, tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will be stronger in IPCC AR4. In this study, variations in heavy rainfall around the central Japan are assessed by a pseudo global warming experiment using numerical weather prediction model. Based on the heavy rainfall event in 2000, pseudo global warming conditions are made from a reanalysis data and climate prediction in the 3rd phase of climate model intercomparison project (CMIP3), and simulations are made by the weather research forecasting model (WRF). The results of the control run of the heavy rainfall event in 2000 agree well with observed precipitation and same rainfall processes are found. In the pseudo global warming experiment using eight different CMIP3 output, five results show heavy rainfall around Aichi prefecture. Four results from the five heavy rainfalls show the larger maximum hourly precipitation, and the events continue longer than the control run. At the same time, using the same method, changes in precipitation characteristics around the central Japan are investigate for summer. The future climate conditions are obtained from dynamic downscaling by WRF using two pseudo global warming condition made with two CMIP3 projections (MPI ECHAM5 and CCCMA CGCM3.1 T47). The results show the opposite variation in future precipitation in the central Japan. In ECHAM5, summer precipitation increases in wide area, but the result with CCCMA shows decreasing precipitation especially in the Pacific side (see Figure). Such characteristics are found in the original CMIP3 output. Detail investigations of precipitation show that there are small variations in hourly precipitation in ECHAM5 and CCCMA

  8. Potential future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on climate projections by eight general circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alo, Clement Aga; Wang, Guiling

    2008-03-01

    predicted to increase under most GCM scenarios over most of the globe. Carbon fluxes to the atmosphere due to fire generally increase too across the globe. Such responses of NPP and fire occurrence result from the synergistic effects of CO2 concentration changes, climate changes, and vegetation changes. In the HadCM-driven simulation, however, extreme responses are shown in some regions: Deciduous forest is replaced by grasses in large areas in the middle latitudes, and substantial areas in northern South America and southern Africa predominantly covered by evergreen forest are replaced with grasses while NPP and fire emissions reduce drastically (by more than 100%). A future paper will examine how the biosphere response documented here influences the impact of climate change on surface hydrological conditions.

  9. Present and future bioclimatic conditions of importance to tourism over the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Zerefos, Christos S.; Kapsomenakis, Ioannis N.; Douvis, Kostas; Konsta, Dimitra; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    This work presents the results of changes of thermal comfort indices in the Mediterranean region and on time scales from seasonal to multi-decadal. The results are based on 6-hourly time series of the Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in the Mediterranean. The two indices were calculated from 6-hourly meteorological parameters, acquired from the ERA-Interim ECMWF reanalysis records. Future climate change conditions were analyzed using the results of four regional climate simulations from the ENSEMBLES project. Two future periods are considered, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the A1B scenario, in comparison to the reference period 1961-1990. Both the PET and UTCI analysis was performed using the radiation and bioclimate model, "RayMan", which is well-suited to calculate radiation fluxes and human biometeorological indices. In addition to the spatial and temporal analysis of the bioclimatic indices, for both the present and the future, concerning the Mediterranean tourism potential, a new approach in Climate-Tourism assessment was applied, namely the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS), at representative tourist destinations in the Mediterranean. CTIS integrates and simplifies climate information for tourism in a convenient and easy to understand way which can be used by individual tourists and by local authorities responsible for tourism and health.

  10. Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects.

    PubMed

    Mason, Tom H E; Stephens, Philip A; Apollonio, Marco; Willis, Stephen G

    2014-12-01

    The altitudinal shifts of many montane populations are lagging behind climate change. Understanding habitual, daily behavioural rhythms, and their climatic and environmental influences, could shed light on the constraints on long-term upslope range-shifts. In addition, behavioural rhythms can be affected by interspecific interactions, which can ameliorate or exacerbate climate-driven effects on ecology. Here, we investigate the relative influences of ambient temperature and an interaction with domestic sheep (Ovis aries) on the altitude use and activity budgets of a mountain ungulate, the Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). Chamois moved upslope when it was hotter but this effect was modest compared to that of the presence of sheep, to which they reacted by moving 89-103 m upslope, into an entirely novel altitudinal range. Across the European Alps, a range-shift of this magnitude corresponds to a 46% decrease in the availability of suitable foraging habitat. This highlights the importance of understanding how factors such as competition and disturbance shape a given species' realised niche when predicting potential future responses to change. Furthermore, it exposes the potential for manipulations of species interactions to ameliorate the impacts of climate change, in this case by the careful management of livestock. Such manipulations could be particularly appropriate for species where competition or disturbance already strongly restricts their available niche. Our results also reveal the potential role of behavioural flexibility in responses to climate change. Chamois reduced their activity when it was warmer, which could explain their modest altitudinal migrations. Considering this behavioural flexibility, our model predicts a small 15-30 m upslope shift by 2100 in response to climate change, less than 4% of the altitudinal shift that would be predicted using a traditional species distribution model-type approach (SDM), which assumes that species' behaviour

  11. High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fallmann, Joachim; Wagner, Sven; Emeis, Stefan

    2017-02-01

    Results from high resolution 7-km WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations are used to analyse changes in the occurrence frequencies of heat waves, of precipitation extremes and of the duration of the winter time freezing period for highly populated urban areas in Central Europe. The projected climate change impact is assessed for 11 urban areas based on climate indices for a future period (2021-2050) compared to a reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC AR4 A1B Scenario as boundary conditions. These climate indices are calculated from daily maximum, minimum and mean temperatures as well as precipitation amounts. By this, the vulnerability of these areas to future climate conditions is to be investigated. The number of heat waves, as well as the number of single hot days, tropical nights and heavy precipitation events is projected to increase in the near future. In addition, the number of frost days is significantly decreased. Probability density functions of monthly mean summer time temperatures show an increase of the 95th percentile of about 1-3 °C for the future compared with the reference period. The projected increase of cooling and decrease of heating degree days indicate the possible impact on urban energy consumption under future climate conditions.

  12. Assessing Future Water Resources: Incorporating the Influence of Climate Change and Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffin, M. T.; Arrigo, J. S.

    2010-12-01

    Water resources are essential to sustaining current and future populations. The availability of fresh water resources in the future is likely to be limited as well as a source of dispute between states and nations. In the United States, water resources have been a major concern in the West for many years. In recent years, droughts have raised awareness in the South as well. With the possibility of future fresh water shortages increasing, a methodology for predicting future conditions is needed. This research outlines a methodology to estimate future conditions based on the influence of climate change, land use change, and population growth. The method is based on the UGSG Thornthwaite monthly water balance model, and can incorporate estimates of climate change and land use change parameters, to assess future water resources based on predicted monthly fluxes. The methodology is demonstrated by analyzing the lower Cape Fear River basin located in southeast North Carolina. This region has experienced water resource issues in recent years, which has raised awareness in the historically water rich region. This study addresses the influence of population growth, climate change and impervious surfaces on water resources on the basin. The southern United States is a rapidly growing region, which is becoming more urban. These growth trends are used to produce future estimates for the basin. Precipitation and temperature estimates based on IPCC predictions and current climatology are inputs to the model. Projected increases in impervious surface cover due to population growth and urbanization are incorporated through the model runoff factor. Predictions based on these two variables are analyzed and compared to current resources and to future population estimates. Water stress indicators are used to categorize the region as water rich, water stressed, or water scarce. Scenarios incorporating regional predictions of climate change indicate a roughly 10% decrease in summer soil

  13. Development And Assessment Of Bias Correction Techniques Based On Distribution Mapping Method For Future Climate Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    P S, S.; Narasimhan, B.; Sudheer, K. P.; Annamalai, H.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change has received much attention recently, owing to the serious threat it poses to the hydrological water balance of our planet. Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations used for climate change impact assessment studies is subjected to model biases which results in unrealistic hydrologic simulations and hence, bias correction methods are adopted. Among the bias correction methods, Distribution mapping (DM) method which modifies the shape of the distribution function of precipitation thereby generating realistic rainfall simulations is considered efficient. The study adopted a unique sliding window technique around each day to define a population data for fitting the probability distribution based on which the climate data were bias corrected on a daily time scale by DM method. The present study focuses on the development and assessment of four bias correction techniques which are based on various combinations of additive and multiplicative bias correction of change factors incorporated within the DM method to account for the future climate projections. The study is carried out in two watersheds; Achankovil and Vaippar basin which belongs to different topographical divisions. Inorder to assess the performance of the proposed bias correction techniques, plots of average number of rainy days and rainfall volume for observed, uncorrected and bias corrected rainfall simulations were compared for both the basins under current and future climate conditions. The effect of different bias correction methods were found to be almost similar in Vaippar basin, dominated mostly by the North East monsoon. However, Achankovil basin which experiences both South West and North East monsoon, exhibited differences among bias correction methods.The results of the study demonstrate that the bias correction methods can have considerable effect in assessing the impacts due to climate change and a single method of bias correction is not applicable across all climates.

  14. The study of climate suitability for grapevine cropping using ecoclimatic indicators under climatic change conditions in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.; Caubel, J.; Cufi, J.; Huard, F.; Launay, M.; deNoblet, N.

    2013-12-01

    Climatic conditions play a fundamental role in the suitability of geographical areas for cropping. In the case of grape, climatic conditions such as water supply and temperatures have an effect of grape quality. In the context of climate change, we could expect changes in overall climatic conditions and so, in grape quality. We proposed to use GETARI (Generic Evaluation Tool of Ecoclimatic Indicators) in order to assess the future climate suitability of two French sites for grape (Vitis vinifera) regarding its quality. GETARI calculates an overall climate suitability index at the annual scale, from a designed evaluation tree. This aggregation tool proposes the major ecophysiological processes taking place during phenological periods, together with the climatic effects that are known to affect their achievement. The effects of climate on the ecophysiological processes are captured by the ecoclimatic indicators, which are agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. They give information about crop response to climate through ecophysiological or agronomic thresholds. These indicators are normalized and aggregated according to aggregation rules in order to compute an overall climate index. To assess the future climate suitability of two French sites for grape regarding its quality, we designed an evaluation tree from GETARI, by considering the effect of water deficit between flowering and veraison and the effect of water deficit, water excess, heat stress, temperature ranges between day and night, night temperatures and mean temperatures between veraison and harvest. The two sites are located in Burgundy and Rhone valley which are two of the most important vineyards in the world. Ecoclimatic indicators are calculated using phenological cycle of the crop. For this reason we chose Grenache and Pinot Noir as long and short cycle varieties respectively. Flowering, veraison and harvest dates were simulated (Parker et al., 2011; Yiou et al., 2012). Daily

  15. Leaf Dynamics of Panicum maximum under Future Climatic Changes.

    PubMed

    Britto de Assis Prado, Carlos Henrique; Haik Guedes de Camargo-Bortolin, Lívia; Castro, Érique; Martinez, Carlos Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Panicum maximum Jacq. 'Mombaça' (C4) was grown in field conditions with sufficient water and nutrients to examine the effects of warming and elevated CO2 concentrations during the winter. Plants were exposed to either the ambient temperature and regular atmospheric CO2 (Control); elevated CO2 (600 ppm, eC); canopy warming (+2°C above regular canopy temperature, eT); or elevated CO2 and canopy warming (eC+eT). The temperatures and CO2 in the field were controlled by temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) and mini free-air CO2 enrichment (miniFACE) facilities. The most green, expanding, and expanded leaves and the highest leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day(-1)) and leaf elongation rate (LER, cm day(-1)) were observed under eT. Leaf area and leaf biomass were higher in the eT and eC+eT treatments. The higher LER and LAR without significant differences in the number of senescent leaves could explain why tillers had higher foliage area and leaf biomass in the eT treatment. The eC treatment had the lowest LER and the fewest expanded and green leaves, similar to Control. The inhibitory effect of eC on foliage development in winter was indicated by the fewer green, expanded, and expanding leaves under eC+eT than eT. The stimulatory and inhibitory effects of the eT and eC treatments, respectively, on foliage raised and lowered, respectively, the foliar nitrogen concentration. The inhibition of foliage by eC was confirmed by the eC treatment having the lowest leaf/stem biomass ratio and by the change in leaf biomass-area relationships from linear or exponential growth to rectangular hyperbolic growth under eC. Besides, eC+eT had a synergist effect, speeding up leaf maturation. Therefore, with sufficient water and nutrients in winter, the inhibitory effect of elevated CO2 on foliage could be partially offset by elevated temperatures and relatively high P. maximum foliage production could be achieved under future climatic change.

  16. Leaf Dynamics of Panicum maximum under Future Climatic Changes

    PubMed Central

    Britto de Assis Prado, Carlos Henrique; Haik Guedes de Camargo-Bortolin, Lívia; Castro, Érique; Martinez, Carlos Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Panicum maximum Jacq. ‘Mombaça’ (C4) was grown in field conditions with sufficient water and nutrients to examine the effects of warming and elevated CO2 concentrations during the winter. Plants were exposed to either the ambient temperature and regular atmospheric CO2 (Control); elevated CO2 (600 ppm, eC); canopy warming (+2°C above regular canopy temperature, eT); or elevated CO2 and canopy warming (eC+eT). The temperatures and CO2 in the field were controlled by temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) and mini free-air CO2 enrichment (miniFACE) facilities. The most green, expanding, and expanded leaves and the highest leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day-1) and leaf elongation rate (LER, cm day-1) were observed under eT. Leaf area and leaf biomass were higher in the eT and eC+eT treatments. The higher LER and LAR without significant differences in the number of senescent leaves could explain why tillers had higher foliage area and leaf biomass in the eT treatment. The eC treatment had the lowest LER and the fewest expanded and green leaves, similar to Control. The inhibitory effect of eC on foliage development in winter was indicated by the fewer green, expanded, and expanding leaves under eC+eT than eT. The stimulatory and inhibitory effects of the eT and eC treatments, respectively, on foliage raised and lowered, respectively, the foliar nitrogen concentration. The inhibition of foliage by eC was confirmed by the eC treatment having the lowest leaf/stem biomass ratio and by the change in leaf biomass-area relationships from linear or exponential growth to rectangular hyperbolic growth under eC. Besides, eC+eT had a synergist effect, speeding up leaf maturation. Therefore, with sufficient water and nutrients in winter, the inhibitory effect of elevated CO2 on foliage could be partially offset by elevated temperatures and relatively high P. maximum foliage production could be achieved under future climatic change. PMID:26894932

  17. Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.

  18. Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

    2016-08-01

    The latitude of landfall for atmospheric rivers (ARs) is examined in the fully coupled half-degree version of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for warm future climate simulations. Two regions are examined: U.S. West Coast/North Pacific ARs and United Kingdom/North Atlantic ARs. Changes in AR landfall-latitude reflect changes in the atmospheric steering flow. West Coast U.S. ARs are projected to push equatorward in response to the subtropical jet climate change. UK AR response is dominated by eddy-driven jets and is seasonally dependent. UK simulated AR response is modest in the winter with the largest relative changes occurring in the seasonal transition months. Precipitation associated with ARs is also projected to increase in intensity under global warming. CCSM4 projects a marked shift to higher rainfall rates for Southern California. Small to modest rainfall rates may increase for all UK latitudes, for the Pacific Northwest, and central and northern California.

  19. Phylogeny Predicts Future Habitat Shifts Due to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    Background Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. Methodology We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Conclusions Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8–77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change. PMID:24892737

  20. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

    2016-01-01

    Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

  1. Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

    2016-12-01

    It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional

  2. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  3. Updated Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves Under Different Future Climate Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ragno, E.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2016-12-01

    Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of the existing and future infrastructures. Here we employ historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on climatic model projections. This presentation summarizes the projected changes in statistics of extremes. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, extreme precipitation events in some urban areas can be 20% more severe in the future, even when projected annual mean precipitation is expected to remain similar to the ground-based climatology.

  4. Potential Dominant Plant Functional Type and Terrestrial Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Future Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Sahajpal, R.; Zhao, M.; Dolan, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    The dominant plant functional type (PFT) of an ecosystem is influenced by local climate. Climate is changing at its greatest historical rate from anthropogenic forcing, which leads to ecosystem redistribution. Climate-ecosystem empirical relationships or biogeography models are used to spatially map current ecosystem distribution and to predict redistribution from climate change. Though climate-ecosystem metrics produce maps that predict the final reorganization of species from climate change they do not generally account for time delay in establishment created by species competition, withdrawal, and invasion. Transition zones between ecosystem types, such as tundra-taiga and evergreen-deciduous, will experience a time delay to establishment from the withdrawal and invasion of species that affect the carbon balance. Dynamic global vegetation models can be used predict the future PFT distribution under different climate change, but to date have not taken a robust approach to the competition between species invasion and withdrawal that creates a delay to final ecosystem redistribution. Therefore, we validate the dominant PFT distribution under current climate conditions of an advanced ecosystem model that has competition and migration processes, against remote sensing data of PFT type across northern North America. The climate-ecosystem relationships in the model match remote sensing data of dominant PFT from current climate 76% of the time for the ~3000 half degree sites in the domain. A climate change scenario was then run and our results showed that ~50% of the domain will change dominant PFT by 2070, highlighting that species competition and invasion influences on carbon balance from climate change is important in predicting future carbon balance. A model experimental design was then run with varying migration rates, species composition and distribution, and disturbance patterns to obtain a range of potential future terrestrial carbon stock from climate change

  5. Climate Change Alters Future Hydrologic Regimes in an Alaskan Salmon Stronghold

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wobus, C. W.; Prucha, R. H.; Albert, D.; Jones, R.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change poses risks to salmon due to changes in both stream temperature and the seasonal distribution of flows. A number of studies have documented these potential effects in the Pacific Northwest, where changes in seasonal snowpack and summer flows have been well documented. We use an integrated hydrologic model and a suite of climate simulations to simulate baseline and future hydrologic conditions in two headwater streams draining into Bristol Bay, Alaska. Under current conditions, approximately 70% of winter storms occur when the air temperature is at or below freezing. These climate conditions are sufficient to build up a winter snowpack that creates a reliable spring freshet each spring. By 2050, model simulations indicate that as little as 30% of winter storms occur when air temperatures are below freezing, and this number decreases to as little as 10% by 2100. As a result of these projected changes in climate, the simulated hydrographs for future scenarios are substantially altered relative to baseline conditions. Rather than being dominated by a single large snowmelt freshet, our models project that the spring freshet is substantially reduced by 2050, and completely lost by 2100. Reliable high flows in the spring are instead replaced by a series of smaller runoff events throughout the winter. These hydrologic changes are likely to have cascading effects on this ecosystem, potentially affecting the timing of salmon runs, the quality of spawning gravels, and perhaps the survival of some sub-populations of salmonids. The future of Bristol Bay salmon will depend in part on how quickly these species can adapt to changing hydrologic conditions. Given the global importance of Bristol Bay salmon, management strategies that minimize additional stressors could also be important for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the resource.

  6. Plant Migrations Role on Future Carbon Balance from Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.

    2014-12-01

    Current efforts to forecast the future of forested systems often oversimplify or overlook the role of plant migration in carbon balance. Research on plant migrations influence on the carbon balance from climate change has been limited from challenges that arise when the ecosystem characteristics of this fine scale process are modeled over large domains. The computational time required to simulate migration lends itself to studies with representative forests while still limiting domain size. For higher resolution runs without limiting domain size migration was introduced to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. ED is an individual tree based model that uses a size and age-structured approximation for the first moment of the stochastic ecosystem model. Hence it can simulate large domains at high spatial resolution with reduced computational intensity. As it is an approximation, the specific location of an individual tree within a site is unknown so binomial probability of dispersal distance with respect to patch size was added to the model to determine when migration to a new site should occur. Migration probability also depends on the number of months reproduction occurs at a given site for deciduous and evergreen plant functional types. The maximum paleoecological data migration rate of 100 km per century was used for both functional types and calibrated in ED in a test domain of the eastern United States. After validation, meteorological data from NARCCAP for current and future climate were used to simulate migration at three rates (none, instantaneous and 100 km per century) with a North America domain at quarter degree resolution. Comparison of scenarios highlights plant migrations role on the terrestrial carbon balance under climate change simulations, particularly with regard to transition zones where biomes are expected to expand and contract.

  7. Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

    PubMed

    Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

    2017-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  8. Effects of City Expansion on Heat Stress under Climate Change Conditions

    PubMed Central

    Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Di Luca, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort. PMID:25668390

  9. Effects of city expansion on heat stress under climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P; Pitman, Andrew J; Di Luca, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort.

  10. Quantifying and Constraining Structural Uncertainty in Future Climate Projections over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, R.; Achutarao, K. M.

    2015-12-01

    The quantification of uncertainty in future climate change projections is essential for appropriate use by policy makers.In this study, coupled climate model projections from 27 models participating in the CMIP5 are analyzed for projected future changes over India and sub-regions (homogenous climatic zones) within. We partition the uncertainty of future temperature and precipitation in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments into Epistemic (structural or model dependent), Aleatoric (chaotic or initial condition dependent), and Reflexive (scenario dependent) components. For this, a subset of 8 models is selected on the basis of availability of more than three realizations from each model. Our results indicate that while there are regions and seasons with large model dependent uncertainty, in many instances the Aleatoric uncertainty component exceeds it. We also address the question whether using appropriate performance metric based weighting for individual models can reduce structural uncertainty. We explore combinations of metrics across variables (and multiple observational datasets where available) and phenomena that matter for the different regional climatic zones to weight models and examine the resulting uncertainty range.

  11. Water quality under increased biofuel production and future climate change and uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demissie, Y. K.; Yan, E.

    2015-12-01

    Over the past decade, biofuel has emerged as an important renewable energy source to supplement gasoline and reduce the associated greenhouse gas emission. Many countries, for instant, have adopted biofuel production goals to blend 10% or more of gasoline with biofuels within 10 to 20 years. However, meeting these goals requires sustainable production of biofuel feedstock which can be challenging under future change in climate and extreme weather conditions, as well as the likely impacts of biofuel feedstock production on water quality and availability. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have performed watershed hydrology and water quality analyses for the Ohio River Basin. The basin is one of the major biofuel feedstock producing region in the United States, which also currently contributes about half of the flow and one third of phosphorus and nitrogen loadings to the Mississippi River that eventually flows to the Gulf of Mexico. The analyses integrate future scenarios and climate change and biofuel development through various mixes of landuse and agricultural management changes and examine their potential impacts on regional and local hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The results of the study are expected to provide much needed insight about the sustainability of large-scale biofuel feedstock production under the future climate change and uncertainty, and helps to further optimize the feedstock production taking into consideration the water-use efficiency.

  12. Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

    2010-05-01

    Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

  13. Future Climate Impacts on Crop Water Demand and Groundwater Longevity in Agricultural Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, T. A.; Sahoo, S.; Elliott, J. W.; Foster, I.

    2016-12-01

    Improving groundwater management practices under future drought conditions in agricultural regions requires three steps: 1) estimating the impacts of climate and drought on crop water demand, 2) projecting groundwater availability given climate and demand forcing, and 3) using this information to develop climate-smart policy and water use practices. We present an innovative combination of models to address the first two steps, and inform the third. Crop water demand was simulated using biophysical crop models forced by multiple climate models and climate scenarios, with one case simulating climate adaptation (e.g. modify planting or harvest time) and another without adaptation. These scenarios were intended to represent a range of drought projections and farm management responses. Nexty, we used projected climate conditions and simulated water demand across the United States as inputs to a novel machine learning-based groundwater model. The model was applied to major agricultural regions relying on the High Plains and Mississippi Alluvial aquifer systems in the US. The groundwater model integrates input data preprocessed using single spectrum analysis, mutual information, and a genetic algorithm, with an artificial neural network model. Model calibration and test results indicate low errors over the 33 year model run, and strong correlations to groundwater levels in hundreds of wells across each aquifer. Model results include a range of projected groundwater level changes from the present to 2050, and in some regions, identification and timeframe of aquifer depletion. These results quantify aquifer longevity under climate and crop scenarios, and provide decision makers with the data needed to compare scenarios of crop water demand, crop yield, and groundwater response, as they aim to balance water sustainability with food security.

  14. Future climate change scenarios differentially affect three abundant algal species in southwestern Australia.

    PubMed

    Phelps, Charlie M; Boyce, Mary C; Huggett, Megan J

    2017-02-21

    Three species of macroalgae (Ecklonia radiata, Sargassum linearifolium, and Laurencia brongniartii) were subjected to future climate change conditions, tested directly for changes in their physiology and chemical ecology, and used in feeding assays with local herbivores to identify the indirect effects of climatic stressors on subsequent levels of herbivory. Each alga had distinct physical and chemical responses to the changes in environmental conditions. In high temperature conditions, S. linearifolium exhibited high levels of bleaching and low maximum quantum yield. For E. radiata, the alga became more palatable to herbivores and the C:N ratios were either higher or lower, dependent on the treatment. Laurencia brongniartii was effected in all manipulations when compared to controls, with increases in bleaching, blade density, and C:N ratios and decreases in growth, maximum quantum yield, blade toughness, total phenolics and consumption by mesograzers. The differential responses we observed in each species have important implications for benthic communities in projected climate change conditions and we suggest that future studies target multi-species assemblage responses.

  15. Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important?

    PubMed

    Beaumont, Linda J; Hughes, Lesley; Pitman, A J

    2008-11-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are common tools for assessing the potential impact of climate change on species ranges. Uncertainty in SDM output occurs due to differences among alternate models, species characteristics and scenarios of future climate. While considerable effort is being devoted to identifying and quantifying the first two sources of variation, a greater understanding of climate scenarios and how they affect SDM output is also needed. Climate models are complex tools: variability occurs among alternate simulations, and no single 'best' model exists. The selection of climate scenarios for impacts assessments should not be undertaken arbitrarily - strengths and weakness of different climate models should be considered. In this paper, we provide bioclimatic modellers with an overview of emissions scenarios and climate models, discuss uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate and suggest steps that can be taken to reduce and communicate climate scenario-related uncertainty in assessments of future species responses to climate change.

  16. Vertical gradient of climate change and climate tourism conditions in the Black Forest.

    PubMed

    Endler, Christina; Oehler, Karoline; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Due to the public discussion about global and regional warming, the regional climate and the modified climate conditions are analyzed exemplarily for three different regions in the southern Black Forest (southwest Germany). The driving question behind the present study was how can tourism adapt to modified climate conditions and associated changes to the tourism potential in low mountain ranges. The tourism potential is predominately based on the attractiveness of natural resources being climate-sensitive. In this study, regional climate simulations (A1B) are analyzed by using the REMO model. To analyze the climatic tourism potential, the following thermal, physical and aesthetic parameters are considered for the time span 1961-2050: thermal comfort, heat and cold stress, sunshine, humid-warm conditions (sultriness), fog, precipitation, storm, and ski potential (snow cover). Frequency classes of these parameters expressed as a percentage are processed on a monthly scale. The results are presented in form of the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Due to warmer temperatures, winters might shorten while summers might lengthen. The lowland might be more affected by heat and sultriness (e.g., Freiburg due to the effects of urban climate). To adapt to a changing climate and tourism, the awareness of both stakeholders and tourists as well as the adaptive capability are essential.

  17. Genetic maladaptation of coastal Douglas-fir seedlings to future climates

    Treesearch

    Brad St. Clair;  Glenn T. Howe

    2007-01-01

    Climates are expected to warm considerably over the next century, resulting in expectations that plant populations will not be adapted to future climates.We estimated the risk of maladaptation of current populations of coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to future climates as the proportion of nonoverlap between two normal...

  18. "Days of future passed" - climate change and carbon cycle history (Jean Baptiste Lamarck Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weissert, Helmut

    2013-04-01

    With the beginning of the fossil fuel age in the 19th century mankind has become an important geological agent on a global scale. For the first time in human history action of man has an impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing CO2 concentrations will result in a perturbation of global carbon cycling coupled with climate change. Investigations of past changes in carbon cycling and in climate will improve our predictions of future climate. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will drive climate into a mode of operation, which may resemble climate conditions in the deep geological past. Pliocene climate will give insight into 400ppm world with higher global sea level than today. Doubling of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 levels will shift the climate system into a state resembling greenhouse climate in the Early Cenozoic or even in the Cretaceous. Carbon isotope geochemistry serves as tool for tracing the pathway of the carbon cycle through geological time. Globally registered negative C-isotope anomalies in the C-isotope record are interpreted as signatures of rapid addition (103 to a few 104 years) of CO2 to the ocean-atmosphere system. Positive C-isotope excursions following negative spikes record the slow post-perturbation recovery of the biosphere at time scales of 105 to 106 years. Duration of C-cycle perturbations in earth history cannot be directly compared with rapid perturbation characterizing the Anthropocene. However, the investigation of greenhouse pulses in the geological past provides insight into different climate states, it allows to identify tipping points in past climate systems and it offers the opportunity to learn about response reactions of the biosphere to rapid changes in global carbon cycling. Sudden injection of massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is recorded in C-isotope record of the Early Cretaceous. The Aptian carbon cycle perturbation triggered changes in temperature and in global hydrological cycling

  19. Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

    PubMed

    Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2011-01-01

    1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics

  20. Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

    2016-04-01

    It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more

  1. Innovative Air Conditioning and Climate Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graf, John

    2015-01-01

    NASA needed to develop a desiccant wheel based humidity removal system to enable the long term testing of the Orion CO2 scrubber on the International Space Station. In the course of developing that system, we learned three things that are relevant to energy efficient air conditioning of office towers. NASA developed a conceptual design for a humidity removal system for an office tower environment. We are looking for interested partners to prototype and field test this concept.

  2. A statistical modeling framework for projecting future ambient ozone and its health impact due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

    2014-06-01

    The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041-2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999-2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: -7%-24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models.

  3. Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: from past to future

    SciTech Connect

    Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.; Tsigaridis, K; Menon, S; Bartlein, P.J.; Feichter, J; Korhola, A; Kulmala, M; O'Donnell, D; Schurgers, G; Sorvari, S; Vesala, T

    2010-01-05

    The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the regulation of atmospheric composition, and hence climate, through multiple interlinked biogeochemical cycles (BGC). Ice-core and other palaeoenvironmental records show a fast response of vegetation cover and exchanges with the atmosphere to past climate change, although the phasing of these responses reflects spatial patterning and complex interactions between individual biospheric feedbacks. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to anthropogenically-forced climate changes and air pollution, with equally complex feedbacks. For future conditions, although carbon cycle-climate interactions have been a major focus, other BGC feedbacks could be as important in modulating climate changes. The additional radiative forcing from terrestrial BGC feedbacks other than those conventionally attributed to the carbon cycle is in the range of 0.6 to 1.6 Wm{sup -2}; all taken together we estimate a possible maximum of around 3 Wm{sup -2} towards the end of the 21st century. There are large uncertainties associated with these estimates but, given that the majority of BGC feedbacks result in a positive forcing because of the fundamental link between metabolic stimulation and increasing temperature, improved quantification of these feedbacks and their incorporation in earth system models is necessary in order to develop coherent plans to manage ecosystems for climate mitigation.

  4. Changes in the ENSO/SPCZ relationship from past to future climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saint-Lu, Marion; Braconnot, Pascale; Leloup, Julie; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Marti, Olivier

    2015-02-01

    The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the main climate feature of the Southwest Pacific. It is characterized by a band of intense convective rainfall extending from the western Pacific warm pool to French Polynesia. Strong precipitation gradients within the SPCZ make local hydrologic conditions very sensitive to small displacements of this rainfall band, as those caused by El Niño and La Niña events. The associated rainfall fluctuations strongly impact the vulnerable Southwest Pacific countries. They are recorded in environmental indicators such as corals, used as proxies of past evolution of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we analyze a set of paleoclimate and future climate simulations and present evidence that changes in the background tropical state largely control the mean SPCZ location. In contrast, changes in the background tropical state do not directly control the interannual variability of the SPCZ location. We show that changes in the interannual variability of the SPCZ location cannot be directly imputable to changes in the ENSO amplitude, or rather the relationship between ENSO and the SPCZ location varies from one climate to another. We thus demonstrate that the teleconnection mechanisms inferred from the modern climate cannot be directly extrapolated to other climates. This study therefore calls for a cautious interpretation of climate reconstructions from environmental indicators in the Southwest Pacific with regard to ENSO variations.

  5. Impacts of Future Climate and Emission Changes on U.S. Air Quality

    SciTech Connect

    Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, K.; Wu, Shiang Yuh; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2014-06-01

    in some regions/species, however, are dominated by climate and/or both climate and anthropogenic emissions, especially in future years that are marked by meteorological conditions conducive to poor air quality.

  6. Spatial allocation of future landscape patterns for biomass and alleviation of hydrologic impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ssegane, H.; Negri, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Current and future demand for food, feed, fiber, and energy require novel approaches to land management, which demands that multifunctional landscapes are created to integrate various ecosystem functions into a sustainable land use. Concurrently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4°C over the next 100 years above the preindustrial baseline, beginning as early as 2016 to 2035 over all seasons in the North America. This climate change is projected to further strain water resources currently stressed by anthropogenic activities. Therefore, placement of bioenergy crops on strategically selected sub-field areas in an agricultural landscape has the potential to increase the environmental and economic sustainability if location and choice of the crops result in minimal disruption of current food production systems and therefore cause minimal indirect land use change. This study identified sub-field marginal areas in an agricultural watershed using soil-based environmental sustainability criteria and a crop productivity index. Future landscape patterns (FLPs) were developed by allocating bioenergy crops (switchgrass: Panicum virgatum or shrub willows: Salix spp.) to these marginal areas (20% of the watershed). SWAT hydrologic model and dynamically downscaled climatic projection were used to asses impact of climate change on extreme flow conditions, total annual production of commodity and bioenergy crops, and water quality under current and future landscape patterns for the mid-21st century (2045-2055) and late 21st century (2085-2095) climatic projections. The frequency of flood and drought conditions was projected to increase while the corresponding durations to decrease. Sediment yields were projected to increase by 85% to 170% while FLPs would mitigate this increase by 26% to 32%.

  7. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  8. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  9. Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Prost, Stefan; Guralnick, Robert P; Waltari, Eric; Fedorov, Vadim B; Kuzmina, Elena; Smirnov, Nickolay; van Kolfschoten, Thijs; Hofreiter, Michael; Vrieling, Klaas

    2013-06-01

    According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4-5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so-far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial-interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow-skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model-testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow-skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the

  10. Present and future near-surface wind climate of Greenland from high resolution regional climate modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorter, W.; van Angelen, J. H.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.

    2014-03-01

    The present and twenty-first century near-surface wind climate of Greenland is presented using output from the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2. The modelled wind variability and wind distribution compare favourably to observations from three automatic weather stations in the ablation zone of southwest Greenland. The Weibull shape parameter is used to classify the wind climate. High values (κ > 4) are found in northern Greenland, indicative of uniform winds and a dominant katabatic forcing, while lower values (κ < 3) are found over the ocean and southern Greenland, where the synoptic forcing dominates. Very high values of the shape parameter are found over concave topography where confluence strengthens the katabatic circulation, while very low values are found in a narrow band along the coast due to barrier winds. To simulate the future (2081-2098) wind climate RACMO2 was forced with the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model using a scenario of mid-range radiative forcing of +4.5 W m-2 by 2100. For the future simulated climate, the near-surface potential temperature deficit reduces in all seasons in regions where the surface temperature is below the freezing point, indicating a reduction in strength of the near-surface temperature inversion layer. This leads to a wind speed reduction over the central ice sheet where katabatic forcing dominates, and a wind speed increase over steep coastal topography due to counteracting effects of thermal and katabatic forcing. Thermally forced winds over the seasonally sea ice covered region of the Greenland Sea are reduced by up to 2.5 m s-1.

  11. Future CO2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure.

    PubMed

    Davis, Steven J; Caldeira, Ken; Matthews, H Damon

    2010-09-10

    Slowing climate change requires overcoming inertia in political, technological, and geophysical systems. Of these, only geophysical warming commitment has been quantified. We estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices. We calculated cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701 in lower- and upper-bounding scenarios) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3 degrees C (1.1 degrees to 1.4 degrees C) above the pre-industrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million. Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives.

  12. Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland.

    PubMed

    Skelsey, Peter; Cooke, David E L; Lynott, James S; Lees, Alison K

    2016-11-01

    The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. The Future of Air Conditioning for Buildings - Executive Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Goetzler, William; Guernsey, Matt; Young, J.; Fuhrman, J.; Abdelaziz, Omar

    2016-07-01

    The Building Technologies Office (BTO), within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, works with researchers and industry to develop and deploy technologies that can substantially reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in residential and commercial buildings. Air conditioning (A/C) systems in buildings contribute to GHG emissions both directly through refrigerant emissions, as well as indirectly through fossil fuel combustion for power generation. BTO promotes pre-competitive research and development (R&D) on next-generation HVAC technologies that support the phase down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and consumption, as well as cost-effective energy efficiency improvements. Over the past several decades, product costs and lifecycle cooling costs have declined substantially in many global markets due to improved, higher-volume manufacturing and higher energy efficiency driven by R&D investments and efficiency policies including minimum efficiency standards and labeling programs.1 This report characterizes the current landscape and trends in the global A/C market, including discussion of both direct and indirect climate impacts, and potential global warming impacts from growing global A/C usage. The report also documents solutions that can help achieve international goals for energy efficiency and GHG emissions reductions. The solutions include pathways related to low-global warming potential2 (GWP) refrigerants, energy efficiency innovations, long-term R&D initiatives, and regulatory actions. DOE provides, with this report, a fact-based vision for the future of A/C use around the world. DOE intends for this vision to reflect a broad and balanced aggregation of perspectives. DOE brings together this content in an effort to support dialogue within the international community and help keep key facts and objectives at the forefront among the many important discussions.

  14. Evaluation of future climate change impacts on semi-arid Cobres basin in southern Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Rong; Corte-Real, João; Moreira, Madalena; Kilsby, Chris; Burton, Aidan; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Forsythe, Nathan; Nunes, João; Sampaio, Elsa

    2014-05-01

    This study evaluated future climate change impacts on hydrological and sediment transport processes for the medium-sized (705 km2) agriculture dominated Cobres basin, Portugal, in the context of anti-desertification strategies. We used the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses (STNSRP) model—RainSim V3, a rainfall conditioned weather generator—ICAAM-WG, developed in this study but based on the modified Climate Research Unit daily weather generator (CRU-WG), and a PBSD hydrological model—SHETRAN, to downscale projections of change. Climate projections were derived from the RCM HadRM3Q0 output, provided by the ENSEMBLES project, for the SRES A1B scenario for the period 2041-2070. The RainSim V3 and ICAAM-WG models are demonstrated to be able to reproduce observed climatology for the period 1981-2010. The SHETRAN model reproduces hourly runoff with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.86 for calibration (2004-2006) and 0.74 for validation (2006-2008) for basin outlet; it reproduces hourly sediment discharge with NSE of 0.48 for the storm from October 23rd 2006 to October 27th 2006. We found that future mean climate is drier, with mean annual rainfall decreased by ~88 mm (19%), mean annual PET increased ~196 mm (16%) and consequent mean annual runoff and sediment yield decreased respectively ~48 mm (50%) and 1.06 t/ha/year (45%). The future mean annual AET decreases ~41 mm (11%), which occurs mainly in spring indicating a more water-limited future climate for vegetation and crop growth. Under current conditions, November to February is the period in which runoff and sediment yield occur frequently; however, it is reduced to December to January in future, with changes in the occurrence rate of ~50%. On the other hand, future wet extremes are more right-skewed. Future annual maximum discharge and sediment discharge decrease for extremes with return periods (T) less than 20 years and the decreases are especially greater for those with T less than 2 years

  15. Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood.

    PubMed

    Fernández, Miguel; Hamilton, Healy H; Kueppers, Lara M

    2015-11-01

    Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine-scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind-driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs' ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high-resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine-scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under 'normal' combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020-2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high-resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near-term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse-scale GCMs.

  16. Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knutti, R.

    2009-12-01

    As computers get faster and our understanding of the climate system improves, climate models to predict the future are getting more complex by including more and more processes, and they are run at higher and higher resolution to resolve more of the small scale processes. As a result, some of the simulated features and structures, e.g. ocean eddies or tropical cyclones look surprisingly real. But are these deceptive? A pattern can look perfectly real but be in the wrong place. So can the current global models really provide the kind of information on local scales and on the quantities (e.g. extreme events) that the decision maker would need to know to invest for example in adaptation? A closer look indicates that evaluating skill of climate models and quantifying uncertainties in predictions is very difficult. This presentation shows that while models are improving in simulating the climate features we observe (e.g. the present day mean state, or the El Nino Southern Oscillation), the spread from multiple models in predicting future changes is often not decreasing. The main problem is that (unlike with weather forecasts for example) we cannot evaluate the model on a prediction (for example for the year 2100) and we have to use the present, or past changes as metrics of skills. But there are infinite ways of testing a model, and many metrics used to test models do not clearly relate to the prediction. Therefore there is little agreement in the community on metrics to separate ‘good’ and ‘bad’ models, and there is a concern that model development, evaluation and posterior weighting or ranking of models are all using the same datasets. While models are continuously improving in representing what we believe to be the key processes, many models also share ideas, parameterizations or even pieces of model code. The current models can therefore not be considered independent. Robustness of a model simulated result is often interpreted as increasing the confidence

  17. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  18. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  19. Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.

    PubMed

    Andersson, Agneta; Meier, H E Markus; Ripszam, Matyas; Rowe, Owen; Wikner, Johan; Haglund, Peter; Eilola, Kari; Legrand, Catherine; Figueroa, Daniela; Paczkowska, Joanna; Lindehoff, Elin; Tysklind, Mats; Elmgren, Ragnar

    2015-06-01

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  20. Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

    PubMed

    Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

    2014-03-01

    Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for

  1. Global Agriculture Yields and Conflict under Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rising, J.; Cane, M. A.

    2013-12-01

    Aspects of climate have been shown to correlate significantly with conflict. We investigate a possible pathway for these effects through changes in agriculture yields, as predicted by field crop models (FAO's AquaCrop and DSSAT). Using satellite and station weather data, and surveyed data for soil and management, we simulate major crop yields across all countries between 1961 and 2008, and compare these to FAO and USDA reported yields. Correlations vary by country and by crop, from approximately .8 to -.5. Some of this range in crop model performance is explained by crop varieties, data quality, and other natural, economic, and political features. We also quantify the ability of AquaCrop and DSSAT to simulate yields under past cycles of ENSO as a proxy for their performance under changes in climate. We then describe two statistical models which relate crop yields to conflict events from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict dataset. The first relates several preceding years of predicted yields of the major grain in each country to any conflict involving that country. The second uses the GREG ethnic group maps to identify differences in predicted yields between neighboring regions. By using variation in predicted yields to explain conflict, rather than actual yields, we can identify the exogenous effects of weather on conflict. Finally, we apply precipitation and temperature time-series under IPCC's A1B scenario to the statistical models. This allows us to estimate the scale of the impact of future yields on future conflict. Centroids of the major growing regions for each country's primary crop, based on USDA FAS consumption. Correlations between simulated yields and reported yields, for AquaCrop and DSSAT, under the assumption that no irrigation, fertilization, or pest control is used. Reported yields are the average of FAO yields and USDA FAS yields, where both are available.

  2. Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C.

    2017-03-01

    Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

  3. Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

    PubMed Central

    Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C.

    2017-01-01

    Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate. PMID:28281687

  4. Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts.

    PubMed

    Rutherford, William A; Painter, Thomas H; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C

    2017-03-10

    Drylands represent the planet's largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness-changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

  5. Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody B.; Reed, Sasha C.

    2017-01-01

    Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

  6. Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid

  7. Strategies for Reforestation under Uncertain Future Climates: Guidelines for Alberta, Canada

    PubMed Central

    Gray, Laura K.; Hamann, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    Background Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. Conclusion/Significance More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions. PMID:21853061

  8. Strategies for reforestation under uncertain future climates: guidelines for Alberta, Canada.

    PubMed

    Gray, Laura K; Hamann, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions.

  9. Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaitan, Carlos F.; Hsieh, William W.; Cannon, Alex J.

    2014-12-01

    Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971-2000) and A2 (2041-2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.

  10. Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shindell, Drew Todd; Lamarque, J.-F.; Schulz, M.; Flanner, M.; Jiao, C.; Chin, M.; Young, P. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Rotstayn, L.; Mahowald, N.; hide

    2013-01-01

    A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m

  11. Future Changes in Surface Winds in the Western U.S. due to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, M. A.; O'Brien, T.; Sloan, L. C.

    2008-12-01

    Surface winds are important to both human and natural systems. These winds drive coastal upwelling, which is critical to nearshore ecosystems. Surface winds also play an important role in cooling the coast and inland regions through the thermally driven sea breeze. As Santa Ana winds, they can create extremely hazardous fire weather conditions. Additionally, surface winds are important for wind energy generation and as an alternative to fossil fuels, further development of this resource is expected to grow exponetially. Understanding how winds will change as a function of anthropogenic change climate change will assist in planning for its impact. Using a regional climate model, we examined the impact of future climate change on surface winds in the western U.S. Two pairs of experiments were conducted, using driving data from the IPCC AR4 simulations of the GFDL CM2.1 and the Canadian GCM for the time periods 1968-2000 and 2038- 2070. The IPCC scenario of these runs is the A2 scenario. The regional climate model has a 30km spatial resolution and the domain is centered over the western U.S. and includes the entire coastline of the three coastal U.S. states. Our initial results show significant changes in surface winds between the future and historical cases. The pattern of the change varies along the coast with implications for coastal upwelling and the thermal sea breeze.

  12. National Climate Program: Early achievements and future directions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    Activities of the National Climate Program since 1978 are reviewed, and outlines new directions which should be emphasized over the next five years or so. These are discussed under the subentities of climate system research; climate impacts; and climatic data, information, and services.

  13. Modeling erosion under future climates with the WEPP model

    Treesearch

    Timothy Bayley; William Elliot; Mark A. Nearing; D. Phillp Guertin; Thomas Johnson; David Goodrich; Dennis Flanagan

    2010-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project Climate Assessment Tool (WEPPCAT) was developed to be an easy-to-use, web-based erosion model that allows users to adjust climate inputs for user-specified climate scenarios. WEPPCAT allows the user to modify monthly mean climate parameters, including maximum and minimum temperatures, number of wet days, precipitation, and...

  14. Analysis of the decadal predictability of the North Atlantic volume and heat transport in a future climate projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Matthias; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Baehr, Johanna

    2015-04-01

    The North Atlantic ocean is predicted to change considerably with climate change. An analysis of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the meridional heat transport (OHT) in CMIP5 climate projections in the global coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) has shown potential changes in the AMOC's and OHT's seasonal cycle in a future climate. From the CMIP5 historical simulation to RCP4.5, both the AMOC and the OHT indicate latitude dependent temporal shifts of about 1 month until 2050. Based on these results, we here examine potential changes in the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT under climate change. In MPI-ESM-LR, we generate two hindcast ensembles with 20 start dates and 10 ensemble members per start date for (i) the current climate state in the CMIP5 historical simulation starting in 1995 and (ii) a future climate state in RCP4.5 starting in 2045. These two hindcast ensembles are compared against the historical simulation and RCP4.5 as control simulation, respectively, using anomaly correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the Brier skill score decomposition. We investigate whether the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT might change under future climate conditions both for the annual mean and individual seasons or climate indices (e.g. for the NAO).

  15. Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Millar, Constance I; Stephenson, Nathan L; Stephens, Scott L

    2007-12-01

    We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future.

  16. Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Millar, C.I.; Stephenson, N.L.; Stephens, S.L.

    2007-01-01

    We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  17. Synergistic and antagonistic interactions of future land use and climate change on river fish assemblages.

    PubMed

    Radinger, Johannes; Hölker, Franz; Horký, Pavel; Slavík, Ondřej; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Wolter, Christian

    2016-04-01

    River ecosystems are threatened by future changes in land use and climatic conditions. However, little is known of the influence of interactions of these two dominant global drivers of change on ecosystems. Does the interaction amplify (synergistic interaction) or buffer (antagonistic interaction) the impacts and does their interaction effect differ in magnitude, direction and spatial extent compared to single independent pressures. In this study, we model the impact of single and interacting effects of land use and climate change on the spatial distribution of 33 fish species in the Elbe River. The varying effects were modeled using step-wise boosted regression trees based on 250 m raster grid cells. Species-specific models were built for both 'moderate' and 'extreme' future land use and climate change scenarios to assess synergistic, additive and antagonistic interaction effects on species losses, species gains and diversity indices and to quantify their spatial distribution within the Elbe River network. Our results revealed species richness is predicted to increase by 0.7-2.9 species by 2050 across the entire river network. Changes in species richness are likely to be spatially variable with significant changes predicted for 56-85% of the river network. Antagonistic interactions would dominate species losses and gains in up to 75% of the river network. In contrast, synergistic and additive effects would occur in only 20% and 16% of the river network, respectively. The magnitude of the interaction was negatively correlated with the magnitudes of the single independent effects of land use and climate change. Evidence is provided to show that future land use and climate change effects are highly interactive resulting in species range shifts that would be spatially variable in size and characteristic. These findings emphasize the importance of adaptive river management and the design of spatially connected conservation areas to compensate for these high species

  18. Observational needs for estimating Alaskan soil carbon stocks under current and future climate

    DOE PAGES

    Vitharana, U. W. A.; Mishra, U.; Jastrow, J. D.; ...

    2017-01-24

    Representing land surface spatial heterogeneity when designing observation networks is a critical scientific challenge. Here we present a geospatial approach that utilizes the multivariate spatial heterogeneity of soil-forming factors—namely, climate, topography, land cover types, and surficial geology—to identify observation sites to improve soil organic carbon (SOC) stock estimates across the State of Alaska, USA. Standard deviations in existing SOC samples indicated that 657, 870, and 906 randomly distributed pedons would be required to quantify the average SOC stocks for 0–1 m, 0–2 m, and whole-profile depths, respectively, at a confidence interval of 5 kg C m-2. Using the spatial correlationmore » range of existing SOC samples, we identified that 309, 446, and 484 new observation sites are needed to estimate current SOC stocks to 1 m, 2 m, and whole-profile depths, respectively. We also investigated whether the identified sites might change under future climate by using eight decadal (2020–2099) projections of precipitation, temperature, and length of growing season for three representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These analyses determined that 12 to 41 additional sites (906 + 12 to 41; depending upon the emission scenarios) would be needed to capture the impact of future climate on Alaskan whole-profile SOC stocks by 2100. The identified observation sites represent spatially distributed locations across Alaska that captures the multivariate heterogeneity of soil-forming factors under current and future climatic conditions. This information is needed for designing monitoring networks and benchmarking of Earth system model results.« less

  19. Fire regime zonation under current and future climate over eastern Canada.

    PubMed

    Boulanger, Yan; Gauthier, Sylvie; Gray, David R; Le Goff, Héloïse; Lefort, Patrick; Morissette, Jacques

    2013-06-01

    Fire is a major disturbance in Canadian forests. Along with fuel and ignition characteristics, climatic conditions are seen as one of the main drivers of fire regimes. Projected changes in climate are expected to significantly influence fire regimes in Canada. As fire regime greatly shapes large-scale patterns in biodiversity, carbon, and vegetation, as well as forest and fire management strategies, it becomes necessary to define regions where current and future fire regimes are homogeneous. Random Forests (RF) modeling was used to relate fire regime attributes prevailing between 1961 and 1990 in eastern Canada with climatic/fire-weather and environmental variables. Using climatic normals outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), we delineated current (1961-1990) and future (2011-2040, 2040-2070, 2071 2100) homogeneous fire regime (HFR) zones. Heterogeneous response of fire regime to climate changes is projected for eastern Canada with some areas (e.g., western Quebec) experiencing very small alterations while others (e.g., southeastern Ontario) are facing great shifts. Overall, models predicted a 2.2- and 2.4-fold increase in the number of fires and the annual area burned respectively mostly as a result of an increase in extreme fire-weather normals and mean drought code. As extreme fire danger would occur later in the fire season on average, the fire season would shift slightly later (5-20 days) in the summer for much of the study area while remaining relatively stable elsewhere. Although fire regime values would change significantly over time, most zone boundaries would remain relatively stable. The information resulting from HFR zonations is clearly of interest for forest and fire management agencies as it reveals zones with peculiar fire regimes that would have been hidden otherwise using predefined administrative or ecological stratifications.

  20. Visualizations of Climate Futures for the temperate prairies of North Dakota to Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Champion, R. A.

    2011-12-01

    Climate futures are projections of future climate components such as temperature and precipitation. Climate futures are used to evaluate ecological and land carbon sequestration strategies for the grasslands of temperate prairies which range from North Dakota to Oklahoma (Omerick Ecoregion 9.2). The data are from the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset which is bias-corrected and downscaled for the United States. The data contains two major sources of uncertainty: the socio economic (human) response to climate change, and the accuracy of the mathematics and computation to predict climate components. The hypothetical socio economic futures (story lines) are IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1). The variation in the Generalized Circulation Models (GCM's) is estimated by comparing predictions from three modeling groups: the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, and the National Institute for Environmental Studies. The climate futures are presented as maps and time series to suggest possible outcomes with visually apparent areas of agreement and disagreement. The years 2001 to 2005 are taken as a baseline, and the years 2005 to 2050 are used for analysis of the future climate. Statistics of the climate futures are based on quantiles (min, max, 1st and 3rd quartiles, and median). The climate futures are presented spatially (across the ecoregion), temporally (time series at identified locations or subsets of the ecoregion), and as animations. Preliminary results show visually apparent variations between the years for baseline and future climate. Preliminary results also show stability for the mid range statistics (median), but greater variation for the extremes (min and max). This suggests that for the time period 2005 to 2050 the mid range climate variables will be similar

  1. Generating future climate time series in semi-arid regions for hydrologic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chadwick, C.; Vicuna, S.; Gironas, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    Synthetic climate time series are widely used in hydrologic modeling, analysis and design. There are several methods for generating time series and downscaling them to the required spatial and temporal scale. Nonetheless, many of these methods are unable to preserve local variability and spatial correlation, as well as other information of the General Circulation Model (GCM) output used to generate the time series. Moreover, these methods are very difficult to implement in semi-arid and highly variable climate regions. This work presents a weather generator method capable of generating future climate time series specially designed to address these drawbacks. The method considers three step: (1) GCMs probabilistic trend extraction, (2) locally coherent stochastic generation of annual precipitation and temperature data around the trend, and (3) annual data disaggregation into smaller time scales using the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) method. The probabilistic trend allows quantifying explicitly the impact of the uncertainty in the generated trend and comparing it against the natural variability. The method was successfully applied to the Limarí, Maipo and Maule River basins, three river basins with very different climate conditions in the semi-arid and Mediterranean region of Chile. Results show that the use of the k-NN resampling process allows preserving the strong seasonality typical of these areas, as the negative precipitations, commonly generated by alternative methods, are avoided. Despite the weather generator was designed for semi-arid regions, we show that it is valid to other climates.

  2. Impacts of climate change on marine top predators: Advances and future challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hobday, Alistair J.; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Evans, Karen; Nicol, Simon; Young, Jock W.; Weng, Kevin C.

    2015-03-01

    Oceanic top predators are the subject of studies by researchers under the international Climate Impacts on Oceanic Top Predators (CLIOTOP) program. A wide range of data sets have shown that environmental conditions, such as temperature and marine productivity, affect the distribution and biological processes of these species, and thus the activities of the humans that depend on them. In this special issue, 25 papers arising from the 2nd CLIOTOP symposium, held in Noumea, New Caledonia in February 2013 report the importance of realistic physical descriptions of oceanic processes for climate change projections, demonstrate a wide range of predator responses to historical climate variability, describe new analytical approaches for understanding the physiology, behaviour and trophodynamics, and project future distributions for a range of species. Several contributions discuss the implications for conservation and fisheries and show that resolving ecosystem management challenges and conflicts in the face of climate change is possible, but will require attention by decision-makers to issues that are broader than their traditional mandate. In the coming years, an increased focus on the development of management options to reduce the impacts of climate change on top predators and their dependent industries is needed.

  3. Climate change and the future of natural disturbances in the central hardwood region

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Virginia H; Hughes, M. Joseph; Hayes, Daniel J

    2015-01-01

    The spatial patterns and ecological processes of the southeastern upland hardwood forests have evolved to reflect past climatic conditions and natural disturbance regimes. Changes in climate can lead to disturbances that exceed their natural range of variation, and the impacts of these changes will depend on the vulnerability or resiliency of these ecosystems. Global Circulation Models generally project annual increases in temperature across the southeastern United States over the coming decades, but changes in precipitation are less consistent. Even more unclear is how climate change might affect future trends in the severity and frequency of natural disturbances, such as severe storms, fires, droughts, floods, and insect outbreaks. Here, we use a time-series satellite data record to map the spatial pattern and severity of broad classes of natural disturbances the southeast region. The data derived from this map allow analysis of regional-scale trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the region over the last three decades. Throughout the region, between 5% and 25% of forest land is affected by some sort of disturbance each year since 1985. The time series reveals periodic droughts that themselves are widespread and of low severity but are associated with more localized, high-severity disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. The map also reveals extensive anthropogenic disturbance across the region in the form of forest conversion related to resource extraction and urban and residential development. We discuss how changes in climate and disturbance regimes might affect southeastern forests in the future via altering the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Changes in climate are highly likely to expose southeastern forests to more frequent and severe disturbances, but ultimately how vulnerable or resilient southeastern forests are to these changes will depend on their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to these novel

  4. Ozone risk for crops and pastures in present and future climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuhrer, Jürg

    2009-02-01

    Ozone is the most important regional-scale air pollutant causing risks for vegetation and human health in many parts of the world. Ozone impacts on yield and quality of crops and pastures depend on precursor emissions, atmospheric transport and leaf uptake and on the plant’s biochemical defence capacity, all of which are influenced by changing climatic conditions, increasing atmospheric CO2 and altered emission patterns. In this article, recent findings about ozone effects under current conditions and trends in regional ozone levels and in climatic factors affecting the plant’s sensitivity to ozone are reviewed in order to assess implications of these developments for future regional ozone risks. Based on pessimistic IPCC emission scenarios for many cropland regions elevated mean ozone levels in surface air are projected for 2050 and beyond as a result of both increasing emissions and positive effects of climate change on ozone formation and higher cumulative ozone exposure during an extended growing season resulting from increasing length and frequency of ozone episodes. At the same time, crop sensitivity may decline in areas where warming is accompanied by drying, such as southern and central Europe, in contrast to areas at higher latitudes where rapid warming is projected to occur in the absence of declining air and soil moisture. In regions with rapid industrialisation and population growth and with little regulatory action, ozone risks are projected to increase most dramatically, thus causing negative impacts major staple crops such as rice and wheat and, consequently, on food security. Crop improvement may be a way to increase crop cross-tolerance to co-occurring stresses from heat, drought and ozone. However, the review reveals that besides uncertainties in climate projections, parameters in models for ozone risk assessment are also uncertain and model improvements are necessary to better define specific targets for crop improvements, to identify regions

  5. Catchment Sensitivity to Changing Climate Conditions: Does the Landscape Control Hydrological Responses?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quesada Montano, B.; Teutschbein, C.; Grabs, T.; Karlsen, R.; Laudon, H.; Bishop, K. H.

    2015-12-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions, but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate. A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions.

  6. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  7. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  8. QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "/FUTURE" CONDITIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A systematic analysis of model performance during simulations based on observed landcover/use change is used to quantify errors associated with simulations of known "future" conditions. Calibrated and uncalibrated assessments of relative change over different lengths of...

  9. QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "/FUTURE" CONDITIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A systematic analysis of model performance during simulations based on observed landcover/use change is used to quantify errors associated with simulations of known "future" conditions. Calibrated and uncalibrated assessments of relative change over different lengths of...

  10. The impact of uncertainties in climate models on future air quality modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manders, A.; Mues, A.; Kranenburg, R.; van Ulft, B.; van Meijgaard, E.; Schaap, M.

    2012-04-01

    Meteorology has a strong impact on air quality, therefore air quality is expected to change under future climate conditions. In particular ozone concentrations would increase due to rising temperatures. For particulate matter (PM), concentrations depend also strongly on wind and precipitation, which makes it more difficult to find clear trends. A common strategy to study these changes is to couple meteorology from a climate model to a chemistry transport model (CTM) and study concentration changes. However, all climate models have biases. To investigate the impact of these biases on ozone and PM concentrations, several simulations were performed with the KNMI regional climate model RACMO2 coupled to the CTM LOTOS-EUROS. Meteorology was calculated by RACMO2 using lateral and sea surface boundary conditions from ERA-Interim as a baseline, and from the global climate models ECHAM5/MPI-OM and MIROC3.2-hires forced with the A1B SRES emission scenario as climate simulations (1970-2060). Results for concentrations from LOTOS-EUROS and meteorological parameters from RACMO2 were compared for the periods 1989-2009 and 2041-2060. The simulations forced with ECHAM5 and MIROC boundary conditions showed considerable biases with respect to the ERA-Interim forced integration(1989-2009), resulting in differences up to 3 µg/m3 for annual average PM10 and up to 12 µg/m3 for summer average ozone maximum concentrations. These were related to biases in temperature, wind speed and precipitation. The RACMO2-ECHAM5 simulation was too cold, wet and windy in summer whereas the RACMO2-MIROC simulation gave too high temperatures for Northwestern Europe. When comparing 2041-2060 to 1989-2009, modelled changes in concentration were smaller than the bias in the present-day climate for ECHAM5 boundary forcing and of the same order of magnitude for MIROC boundary forcing. The simulations did partly agree on the concentration changes for ozone and PM10. But on many locations the magnitude (ozone

  11. Numerical Atmospheric-Hydrologic Modeling-Based Flood Frequency Analysis from Future Climate Projections at Cache Creek Watershed, California.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trinh, T. Q.; Ishida, K.; Fischer, I.; Kavvas, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    Effect of climate change on hydrologic flow regimes, particularly extreme events, necessitates modeling of future flows in order to best inform water resources management. This study simulated future flows in the Cache Creek watershed in California, over the 21st century using a hydro-climate model (WEHY-HCM) forced by future climate projections. The future climate projections, based on four emission scenarios simulated by two GCMs (ECHAM5 and CCSM3) under several initial conditions, were dynamically downscaled using MM5, a regional climate model. The downscaled future precipitation data were bias-corrected before being input into the WEHY model to simulate the detailed flow at hourly intervals along the main Cache Creek branch and its tributaries during 2010-2099. The results suggest an increasing trend in flood magnitudes and their intensities at the outlet of the study region throughout the 21st century. Similarly, estimates of the 100 and 200-year floods increased throughout the study period. The observed differences in the estimated future flood frequencies between the first half and the second half of 21st century may be an evidence of the non-stationarity in the 21st century hydrological regime over the study region.

  12. A framework for evaluating statistical downscaling performance under changing climatic conditions (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dixon, K. W.; Balaji, V.; Lanzante, J.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Hayhoe, K.; Stoner, A. K.; Gaitan, C. F.

    2013-12-01

    Statistical downscaling (SD) methods may be viewed as generating a value-added product - a refinement of global climate model (GCM) output designed to add finer scale detail and to address GCM shortcomings via a process that gleans information from a combination of observations and GCM-simulated climate change responses. Making use of observational data sets and GCM simulations representing the same historical period, cross-validation techniques allow one to assess how well an SD method meets this goal. However, lacking observations of future, the extent to which a particular SD method's skill might degrade when applied to future climate projections cannot be assessed in the same manner. Here we illustrate and describe extensions to a 'perfect model' experimental design that seeks to quantify aspects of SD method performance both for a historical period (1979-2008) and for late 21st century climate projections. Examples highlighting cases in which downscaling performance deteriorates in future climate projections will be discussed. Also, results will be presented showing how synthetic datasets having known statistical properties may be used to further isolate factors responsible for degradations in SD method skill under changing climatic conditions. We will describe a set of input files used to conduct these analyses that are being made available to researchers who wish to utilize this experimental framework to evaluate SD methods they have developed. The gridded data sets cover a region centered on the contiguous 48 United States with a grid spacing of approximately 25km, have daily time resolution (e.g., maximum and minimum near-surface temperature and precipitation), and represent a total of 120 years of model simulations. This effort is consistent with the 2013 National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop goal of supporting a community approach to promote the informed use of downscaled climate projections.

  13. Simulated Future Air Temperature and Precipitation Climatology and Variability in the Mediterranean Basin by Using Downscaled Global Climate Model Outputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozturk, Tugba; Pelin Ceber, Zeynep; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions that shall be affected most by the impacts of the future climate changes on temperature regime including changes in heat waves intensity and frequency, seasonal and interannual precipitation variability including changes in summer dryness and drought events, and hydrology and water resources. In this study, projected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and inter-annual variability over the Mediterranean region were simulated. For performing this aim, the future changes in annual and seasonal averages for the future period of 2070-2100 with respect to the period from 1970 to 2000 were investigated. Global climate model outputs of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used. SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios' outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used in future climate model projections. Future surface mean air temperatures of the larger Mediterranean basin increase mostly in summer and least in winter, and precipitation amounts decreases in all seasons at almost all parts of the basin. Future climate signals for surface air temperatures and precipitation totals will be much larger than the inter-model standard deviation. Inter-annual temperature variability increases evidently in summer season and decreases in the northern part of the domain in the winter season, while precipitation variability increases in almost all parts of domain. Probability distribution functions are found to be shifted and flattened for future period compared to reference period. This indicates that occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions will increase in the future period. This work has been supported by Bogazici University BAP under project number 7362. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

  14. Declining uncertainty in transient climate response as CO2 forcing dominates future climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myhre, Gunnar; Boucher, Olivier; Bréon, François-Marie; Forster, Piers; Shindell, Drew

    2015-03-01

    Carbon dioxide has exerted the largest portion of radiative forcing and surface temperature change over the industrial era, but other anthropogenic influences have also contributed. However, large uncertainties in total forcing make it difficult to derive climate sensitivity from historical observations. Anthropogenic forcing has increased between the Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC; refs , ), although its relative uncertainty has decreased. Here we show, based on data from the two reports, that this evolution towards lower uncertainty can be expected to continue into the future. Because it is easier to reduce air pollution than carbon dioxide emissions and because of the long lifetime of carbon dioxide, the less uncertain carbon dioxide forcing is expected to become increasingly dominant. Using a statistical model, we estimate that the relative uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing of more than 40% quoted in the latest IPCC report for 2011 will be almost halved by 2030, even without better scientific understanding. Absolute forcing uncertainty will also decline for the first time, provided projected decreases in aerosols occur. Other factors being equal, this stronger constraint on forcing will bring a significant reduction in the uncertainty of observation-based estimates of the transient climate response, with a 50% reduction in its uncertainty range expected by 2030.

  15. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.

    PubMed

    Friggens, Megan M; Finch, Deborah M

    2015-01-01

    Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used

  16. Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

    PubMed Central

    Friggens, Megan M.; Finch, Deborah M.

    2015-01-01

    Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be

  17. Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

    2017-04-01

    This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial

  18. Reproductive responses of an apex predator to changing climatic conditions

    Treesearch

    Susan Rebecca. Salafsky

    2015-01-01

    Apex predators are ideal subjects for evaluating the effects of changing climatic conditions on the productivity of forested landscapes, because the quality of their breeding habitat depends primarily on the availability of resources at lower trophic levels. Identifying the environmental factors that influence the reproductive output of apex predators can, therefore,...

  19. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  20. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  1. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  2. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  3. 24 CFR 3285.404 - Severe climatic conditions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ....404 Severe climatic conditions. In frost-susceptible soil locations, ground anchor augers must be installed below the frost line, unless the foundation system is frost-protected to prevent the effects of frost heave, in accordance with acceptable engineering practice and § 3280.306 of this chapter...

  4. Projecting yield changes of spring wheat under future climate scenarios on the Canadian Prairies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Budong; De Jong, Reinder; Huffman, Ted; Wang, Hong; Yang, Jingyi

    2016-02-01

    The potential impact of the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated climatic change on agricultural productivity needs assessment. Projecting crop yield changes under climate change requires future climate scenarios as input to crop yield models. It is widely accepted that downscaling of climate data is required to bridge the gap between large-scale global climate models (GCMs) and climate change impact models, such as crop growth models. Regional climate models (RCMs) are often used to dynamically downscale GCM simulations to smaller regional scales, while statistical methods, such as regression-based transfer functions and stochastic weather generators, are also widely employed to develop future climate scenarios for this purpose. The methods used in developing future climate scenarios often contribute to uncertainties in the projected impacts of climate change, in addition to those associated with GCMs and forcing scenarios. We employed climate scenarios from the state-of-the-art RCMs in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), along with climate scenarios generated by a stochastic weather generator based on climate change simulations performed by their driving GCMs, to drive the CERES-Wheat model in DSSAT to project changes in spring wheat yield on the Canadian Prairies. The future time horizon of 2041-2070 and the baseline period of 1971-2000 were considered. The projected changes showed an average increase ranging from 26 to 37 % of the baseline yield when the effects of the elevated CO2 concentration were simulated, but only up to 15 % if the elevated CO2 effect was excluded. In addition to their potential use in climate change impact assessment, the results also demonstrated that the simulated crop yield changes were fairly consistent whether future climate scenarios were derived from RCMs or they were generated by a stochastic weather generator based on the simulated climate change from the GCMs that were used

  5. Terrestrial ecosystems response to climate and climate change: plant migration and the future of forested systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Sahajpal, R.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change alters ecosystem structure and type. A robust understanding of climate-ecosystem relationships can be used to forecast ecosystem structure and distribution from climate change. However, current efforts to forecast future carbon sequestration rates often oversimplify or overlook the role of plant migration and focus on potential vegetation. The difficulty in accounting for landscape complexity, disturbance rates, species-specific interactions, and dispersal properties leads to this oversimplification or non-inclusion of migration when forecasting. Forest gap models can capture many of these processes, but are limited in the size of the domain they simulate because of computational time. For large scale simulations a gap model is often used to represent a much larger domain, potentially failing to capture a number of ecosystem processes as a 30m by 30m gap model may be used to represent a 0.5 x 0.5 degree site. Another method to model migration is to simply leave a fraction of every seed type in every site, which only generates scenarios that represent maximum migration rates. As a solution to these problems we introduced a migration function to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model. ED is an individual tree based model that uses a size and age-structured approximation for the first moment of the stochastic ecosystem model. Hence it can simulate large domains without being too computational intensive. However, explicit locations of individual trees in a site are unknown, just the total number of trees in the site. Therefore, we developed a method to pseudo-spatially model migration. A simple simulator was built and it was shown that over a large number of runs expected migration rates can be reproduced. The simulator was placed into ED and climate change scenarios run. With fitted species-specific dispersal kernels the role that plant migration will play in the future of forested systems in North America was identified. Issues that still need to be

  6. The importance of external climate forcing for the variability and trends of coastal upwelling in past and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit; Yi, Xing; Emeis, Kay-Christian

    2016-06-01

    The eastern boundary upwelling systems, located in the subtropics at the eastern boundary of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and mainly driven by the trade winds, are the major coastal upwelling regions. Previous studies have suggested that the intensity of upwelling in these areas in the past centuries may have been influenced by the external radiative forcing, for instance by changes in solar irradiance, and it will also be influenced in the future by the increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we analyse the impact of the external climate forcing on these upwelling systems in ensembles of simulations of two Earth system models. The ensembles contain three simulations for each period covering the past millennium (900-1849) and the 20th century (1850-2005). One of these Earth system models additionally includes the near future (2006-2100). Using a set of simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, enables us to test whether the observed variability and trends are driven by the external radiative forcing. Our analysis shows that the variability of the simulated upwelling is largely not affected by the external forcing and that, generally, there are no significant trends in the periods covering the past and future. Only in future simulations with the strongest increase of greenhouse gas concentrations the upwelling trends are significant and appear in all members of the ensemble.

  7. Climate change and Mediterranean storm tracks: present and future climate simulations of a high-resolution Mediterranean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Simmonds, I.; Keay, K.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Brikolas, V.; Kouroutzoglou, J.

    2010-09-01

    A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. General features include a reduction in the number of cyclones but with an increase in the number of more intense cyclones; as well as a poleward shift in the tracks. Moreover, these features are expected to be projected in the future under global warming conditions. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes temporal and spatial variations of frequency, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA high resolution model is employed, based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the EH5OM_20C3M present climate simulation, where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4, and b) the EH5OM_A1B scenario simulation, where the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5-MPIOM SRESA1B global simulation (run3) has been used for the period 2001-2050. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm

  8. Land-atmosphere coupling over North America in the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) simulations for current and future climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tefera Diro, Gulilat; Sushama, Laxmi

    2014-05-01

    The strength and characteristics of land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling over North America in current and future climates are assessed using the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). The L-A coupling is first assessed, in current climate, by analyzing the coupled (interactive soil moisture) and uncoupled (prescribed soil moisture) CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981-2010 period. Results indicate strong soil moisture-temperature coupling over the Great Plains, which is in line with previous studies. In addition coupling is also found to significantly modulate extreme temperature conditions such as the percentage of hot days, the frequency and maximum duration of hot spells for this region. The soil moisture-precipitation coupling in CRCM5, on the other hand, is weak compared to the soil-moisture temperature coupling. Coupling is noted mostly over the semi-arid regions of the western US for the case of persistent extreme precipitation events (defined as consecutive days with precipitation greater than the long term 90 percentile), probably due to its more transition zone like conditions, which is favorable for L-A coupling, in these circumstances. To study projected changes to L-A coupling in future climate, coupled and uncoupled CRCM5 simulations, driven by CMIP5 GCMs, were performed, for current (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100) climates. Coupling regions in the GCM-driven current climate CRCM5 simulations are similar to those obtained with ERA-Interim driven CRCM5 simulations discussed above. In future climate, soil-moisture-temperature coupling regions extend beyond the Great Plains, for instance to mid-west and the eastern part of the US, while the regions of soil-moisture-precipitation coupling have a more complex spatial structure.

  9. A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

    1998-01-01

    Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

  10. Engineering a future for amphibians under a changing climate

    Treesearch

    Noreen Parks; Deanna H. Olson

    2011-01-01

    Climate variation exacerbates threats to amphibians such as disease and habitat loss. Yet, by and large existing species- and land-management plans give little if any consideration to climate impacts. Moreover, many management actions that do address emerging climate patterns have yet to be evaluated for feasibility and effectiveness. To help address these needs,...

  11. Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, W.; Gardelin, M.; Olsson, J.; Bosshard, T.

    2015-09-01

    As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

  12. A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs

    PubMed Central

    Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T.; Kjær, Erik D.; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B.; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2013-01-01

    Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates. PMID:23836785

  13. A greener Greenland? Climatic potential and long-term constraints on future expansions of trees and shrubs.

    PubMed

    Normand, Signe; Randin, Christophe; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Bay, Christian; Høye, Toke T; Kjær, Erik D; Körner, Christian; Lischke, Heike; Maiorano, Luigi; Paulsen, Jens; Pearman, Peter B; Psomas, Achilleas; Treier, Urs A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2013-08-19

    Warming-induced expansion of trees and shrubs into tundra vegetation will strongly impact Arctic ecosystems. Today, a small subset of the boreal woody flora found during certain Plio-Pleistocene warm periods inhabits Greenland. Whether the twenty-first century warming will induce a re-colonization of a rich woody flora depends on the roles of climate and migration limitations in shaping species ranges. Using potential treeline and climatic niche modelling, we project shifts in areas climatically suitable for tree growth and 56 Greenlandic, North American and European tree and shrub species from the Last Glacial Maximum through the present and into the future. In combination with observed tree plantings, our modelling highlights that a majority of the non-native species find climatically suitable conditions in certain parts of Greenland today, even in areas harbouring no native trees. Analyses of analogous climates indicate that these conditions are widespread outside Greenland, thus increasing the likelihood of woody invasions. Nonetheless, we find a substantial migration lag for Greenland's current and future woody flora. In conclusion, the projected climatic scope for future expansions is strongly limited by dispersal, soil development and other disequilibrium dynamics, with plantings and unintentional seed dispersal by humans having potentially large impacts on spread rates.

  14. A Hydrologic Regionalization of the Conterminous United States to Estimate Variability in Future Hydrologic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bock, Andrew; Hay, Lauren; McCabe, Greg; Markstrom, Steve; Atkinson, Dwight<