Quantifying CO2 Emissions From Individual Power Plants From Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nassar, Ray; Hill, Timothy G.; McLinden, Chris A.; Wunch, Debra; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Crisp, David

2017-10-01

In order to better manage anthropogenic CO2 emissions, improved methods of quantifying emissions are needed at all spatial scales from the national level down to the facility level. Although the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite was not designed for monitoring power plant emissions, we show that in some cases, CO2 observations from OCO-2 can be used to quantify daily CO2 emissions from individual middle- to large-sized coal power plants by fitting the data to plume model simulations. Emission estimates for U.S. power plants are within 1-17% of reported daily emission values, enabling application of the approach to international sites that lack detailed emission information. This affirms that a constellation of future CO2 imaging satellites, optimized for point sources, could monitor emissions from individual power plants to support the implementation of climate policies.

Constructing a sustainable power sector in China: current and future emissions of coal-fired power plants from 2010 to 2030

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, D.; Zhang, Q.

2017-12-01

As the largest energy infrastructure in China, power sector consumed more coal than any other sector and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement target. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants in China during 2010-2030 and the evolution of associated emissions for the same period by using a unit-based emission projection model which integrated the historical power plants information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and the evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by the stringent environmental legislation, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions from China's coal-fired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24% respectively during 2010-2015, comparing to 14% increase of coal consumption and 15% increase in CO2 emissions. We estimated that under current national energy development planning, coal consumption and CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants will continue to increase until 2030, in which against the China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) targets. Early retirement of old and low-efficient power plants will cumulatively reduce 2.2 Pg CO2 emissions from the baseline scenario during 2016-2030, but still could not curb CO2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implementation of "near zero" emission control policy, we projected that emissions of air pollutants will significantly decrease during the same period under all scenarios, indicating the decoupling trends of air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Although with limited direct emission reduction benefits, increasing operating hours of power plants could avoid 236 GW of new power plants construction, which could indirectly reduce emissions embodied in the construction activity. Our results identified a more sustainable pathway for China's coal-fired power plants, which could reduce air pollutant emissions, improve the energy efficiency, and slow down the construction of new units. However, continuous construction of new coal-fired power plants driven by increased electricity demand would pose a potential threat to climate change mitigation and China's peak carbon pledge, and more aggressive CO2 emission reduction policy should be implemented in the future.

The Effect of Framing and Normative Messages in Building Support for Climate Policies

PubMed Central

Hurlstone, Mark J.; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R.; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a “foregone-gain”—incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts—rather than as a “loss”—incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts. PMID:25501009

The effect of framing and normative messages in building support for climate policies.

PubMed

Hurlstone, Mark J; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a "foregone-gain"--incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts--rather than as a "loss"--incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts.

Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

2017-12-01

Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

Water impacts of CO2 emission performance standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants.

PubMed

Talati, Shuchi; Zhai, Haibo; Morgan, M Granger

2014-10-21

We employ an integrated systems modeling tool to assess the water impacts of the new source performance standards recently proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for limiting CO2 emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants. The implementation of amine-based carbon capture and storage (CCS) for 40% CO2 capture to meet the current proposal will increase plant water use by roughly 30% in supercritical pulverized coal-fired power plants. The specific amount of added water use varies with power plant and CCS designs. More stringent emission standards than the current proposal would require CO2 emission reductions for natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) plants via CCS, which would also increase plant water use. When examined over a range of possible future emission standards from 1100 to 300 lb CO2/MWh gross, new baseload NGCC plants consume roughly 60-70% less water than coal-fired plants. A series of adaptation approaches to secure low-carbon energy production and improve the electric power industry's water management in the face of future policy constraints are discussed both quantitatively and qualitatively.

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin, Xiang; Chen, Wenying; Eom, Jiyong

2015-07-01

ABSTRACT Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumptionmore » and CO2 emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.« less

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; Bosetti, V.; Borgonovo, E.; Capros, P.; Fricko, O.; Gernaat, D. E. H. J.; Guivarch, C.; Havlik, P.; Huppmann, D.; Johnson, N.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Keppo, I.; Krey, V.; Ó Broin, E.; Price, J.; van Vuuren, D. P.

2017-01-01

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.

Evaluating Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions in the Urban Salt Lake Valley through Inverse Modeling: Combining Long-term CO2 Observations and an Emission Inventory using a Multiple-box Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catharine, D.; Strong, C.; Lin, J. C.; Cherkaev, E.; Mitchell, L.; Stephens, B. B.; Ehleringer, J. R.

2016-12-01

The rising level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), driven by anthropogenic emissions, is the leading cause of enhanced radiative forcing. Increasing societal interest in reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions call for a computationally efficient method of evaluating anthropogenic CO2 source emissions, particularly if future mitigation actions are to be developed. A multiple-box atmospheric transport model was constructed in conjunction with a pre-existing fossil fuel CO2 emission inventory to estimate near-surface CO2 mole fractions and the associated anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the Salt Lake Valley (SLV) of northern Utah, a metropolitan area with a population of 1 million. A 15-year multi-site dataset of observed CO2 mole fractions is used in conjunction with the multiple-box model to develop an efficient method to constrain anthropogenic emissions through inverse modeling. Preliminary results of the multiple-box model CO2 inversion indicate that the pre-existing anthropogenic emission inventory may over-estimate CO2 emissions in the SLV. In addition, inversion results displaying a complex spatial and temporal distribution of urban emissions, including the effects of residential development and vehicular traffic will be discussed.

Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-11-11

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO 2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO 2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Responses of Soil CO2 Emissions to Extreme Precipitation Regimes: a Simulation on Loess Soil in Semi-arid Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, R.; Zhao, M.; Hu, Y.; Guo, S.

2016-12-01

Responses of soil CO2 emission to natural precipitation play an essential role in regulating regional C cycling. With more erratic precipitation regimes, mostly likely of more frequent heavy rainstorms, projected into the future, extreme precipitation would potentially affect local soil moisture, plant growth, microbial communities, and further soil CO2 emissions. However, responses of soil CO2 emissions to extreme precipitation have not yet been systematically investigated. Such performances could be of particular importance for rainfed arable soil in semi-arid regions where soil microbial respiration stress is highly sensitive to temporal distribution of natural precipitation.In this study, a simulated experiment was conducted on bare loess soil from the semi-arid Chinese Loess Plateau. Three precipitation regimes with total precipitation amounts of 150 mm, 300 mm and 600 mm were carried out to simulate the extremely dry, business as usual, and extremely wet summer. The three regimes were individually materialized by wetting soils in a series of sub-events (10 mm or 150 mm). Co2 emissions from surface soil were continuously measured in-situ for one month. The results show that: 1) Evident CO2 emission pulses were observed immediately after applying sub-events, and cumulative CO2 emissions from events of total amount of 600 mm were greater than that from 150 mm. 3) In particular, for the same total amount of 600 mm, wetting regimes by applying four times of 150 mm sub-events resulted in 20% less CO2 emissions than by applying 60 times of 10 mm sub-events. This is mostly because its harsh 150 mm storms introduced more over-wet soil microbial respiration stress days (moisture > 28%). As opposed, for the same total amount of 150 mm, CO2 emissions from wetting regimes by applying 15 times of 10 mm sub-events were 22% lower than by wetting at once with 150 mm water, probably because its deficiency of soil moisture resulted in more over-dry soil microbial respiration stress days (moisture < 15%). Overall, soil CO2 emissions not only responded to total precipitation amount, but was also sensitive to precipitation regimes. Such differentiated responses of CO2 emissions highlight the necessity to properly account for relative contributions from CO2 emissions when projecting global carbon cycling into future climate scenarios.

Current and Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Crop Intensification and Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, K. M.; Gerber, J. S.; Mueller, N. D.; O'Connell, C.; West, P. C.

2014-12-01

Food systems currently contribute up to one-third of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and these emissions are expected to rise as demand for agricultural products increases. Thus, improving the greenhouse gas emissions efficiency of agriculture - the tons or kilocalories of production per ton of CO2 equivalent emissions - will be critical to support a resilient future global system. Here, we model and evaluate global, 2000-era, spatially explicit relationships between a suite of greenhouse gas emissions from various agronomic practices (i.e., fertilizer application, peatland draining, and rice cultivation) and crop yields. Then, we predict potential emissions from future crop production increases achieved through intensification and extensification, including CO2 emissions from croplands replacing non-urban land cover. We find that 2000-era yield-scaled agronomic emissions are highly heterogeneous across crops types, crop management practices, and regions. Rice agriculture produces more total CO2-equivalent emissions than any other crop. Moreover, inundated rice in just a few countries contributes the vast majority of these rice emissions. Crops such as sunflower and cotton have low efficiency on a caloric basis. Our results suggest that intensification tends to be a more efficient pathway to boost greenhouse gas emissions efficiency than expansion. We conclude by discussing potential crop- and region-specific agricultural development pathways that may boost the greenhouse gas emissions efficiency of agriculture.

Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

2015-12-01

Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

Emission Inventory of Halogenated greenhouse gases in China during 1980-2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, X.; Velders, G. J. M.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Molina, M.; Su, S.; Zhang, J.; Zhou, X.; Hu, J.; Prinn, R. G.

2015-12-01

China is currently the largest producer and consumer of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) which are regulated by the Montreal Protocol (MP). Many ODSs are also powerful greenhouse gases (GHGs). The Multilateral Fund has subsidized ~1 billion US dollars for the ODS phase out in China, and thus the return on this investment is of great interest. This study gives a comprehensive emission inventory in China from 1980 to 2013 of halocarbons including ODSs and their alternatives, the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) that are also greenhouse gases. We then project these emissions up to 2050 according to the MP and several policy options. Total emissions of ODS and HFCs were estimated to be ~500 CO2-eq Tg/yr in 2013 which are equivalent to ~5% of total GHG emissions in China including fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Our estimate shows that China has succeeded in substantially reducing CFC-11-equivalent emissions (to protect the ozone layer), and CO2-equivalent emissions (to protect climate) of ODSs since the mid-1990s when their phase out started in China in compliance with the MP. Furthermore, the avoided CO2-eq emissions due to compliance with the MP are even greater compared to the reduced emissions, for example net cumulative avoided emissions during 19 year period between 1995-2013 are comparable to the current one year CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in China. We find that HFC CO2-eq emissions increased rapidly in last decade, which make up ~2% in 2005 to ~20% of total halocarbon CO2-eq emissions in 2013. Under a baseline scenario in which HFCs are used as alternatives in the ongoing phase out of HCFCs in China, emissions of HFCs are predicted to be important components of both China's and global future GHG emissions. However, potential exists for minimizing China's HFC emissions under mitigation scenarios. Our conclusions about China's past and future ODS and HFC emission trajectories are likely to apply to other developing countries, with important implications for mitigating global GHG emissions.

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Hameed, S.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Tropospheric ozone and methane might increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NOx and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test this possible climatic impact, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically-averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4 and NOx. The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NOx and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could enhance global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

21st Century Carbon-Climate Change as Simulated by the Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, C.; Christian, J. R.; Arora, V.; Boer, G. J.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Merryfield, W. J.; Lee, W. G.; Yang, D.

2009-12-01

The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1 is a fully coupled climate/carbon-cycle model with prognostic ocean and terrestrial components. The model has been used to simulate the 1850-2000 climate using historical greenhouse gas emissions, and future climates using IPCC emission scenarios. Modelled globally averaged CO2 concentration, land and ocean carbon uptake compare well with observation-based values at year 2000, as do the annual cycle and latitudinal distribution of CO2, instilling confidence that the model is suitable for future projections of carbon cycle behaviour in a changing climate. Land use change emissions are calculated explicitly using an observation-based time series of fractional coverage of different plant functional types. A more complete description of the model may be found in Arora et al. (2009). Differences in the land-atmosphere CO2 flux from the present to the future period under the SRES A2 emissions scenario show an increase in land sinks by a factor of 7.5 globally, mostly the result of CO2 fertilization. By contrast, the magnitude of the global ocean CO2 sink increases by a factor of only 2.3 by 2100. Expressed as a fraction of total emissions, ocean carbon uptake decreases throughout the 2000-2100 period, while land carbon uptake increases until around 2050, then declines. The result is an increase in airborne CO2 fraction after the mid-21st century, reaching a value of 0.55 by 2100. The simulated decline in ocean carbon uptake over the 21st century occurs despite steadily rising atmospheric CO2. This behaviour is usually attributed to climate-induced changes in surface temperature and salinity that reduce CO2 solubility, and increasing ocean stratification that weakens the biological pump. However, ocean biological processes such as dinitrogen fixation and calcification may also play an important role. Although not well understood at present, improved parameterizations of these processes will increase confidence in projections of future trends in CO2 uptake.

Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar1

PubMed Central

Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A.; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T.S.; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D.; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

2015-01-01

Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions. PMID:26162427

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, andmore » BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.« less

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025–2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, andmore » BEVs range from 300–350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25–$1.00/mi depending on timeframe and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60–90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.« less

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment.

PubMed

Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, Todd; Biddy, Mary; Alexander, Mark; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy J

2018-02-20

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ∼450 gCO 2 e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H 2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO 2 e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ∼350 gCO 2 /mi for ICEVs and ∼250 gCO 2e /mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Environmental implication of electric vehicles in China.

PubMed

Huo, Hong; Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Michael Q; Streets, David G; He, Kebin

2010-07-01

Today, electric vehicles (EVs) are being proposed in China as one of the potential options to address the dramatically increasing energy demand from on-road transport. However, the mass use of EVs could involve multiple environmental issues, because EVs use electricity that is generated primarily from coal in China. We examined the fuel-cycle CO(2), SO(2), and NO(x) emissions of EVs in China in both current (2008) and future (2030) periods and compared them with those of conventional gasoline vehicles and gasoline hybrids. EVs do not promise much benefit in reducing CO(2) emissions currently, but greater CO(2) reduction could be expected in future if coal combustion technologies improve and the share of nonfossil electricity increases significantly. EVs could increase SO(2) emissions by 3-10 times and also double NO(x) emissions compared to gasoline vehicles if charged using the current electricity grid. In the future, EVs would be able to reach the NO(x) emission level of gasoline vehicles with advanced emission control devices equipped in thermal power plants but still increase SO(2). EVs do represent an effective solution to issues in China such as oil shortage, but critical policy support is urgently needed to address the environmental issues caused by the use of EVs to make EVs competitive with other vehicle alternatives.

Past, present, and future emissions of HCFC-141b in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ziyuan; Yan, Huanghuang; Fang, Xuekun; Gao, Lingyun; Zhai, Zihan; Hu, Jianxin; Zhang, Boya; Zhang, Jianbo

2015-05-01

According to the Montreal Protocol, China is required to phase-out hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) by 2030. Compound 1,1-dichloro-1-fluoroethane (CH3CCl2F, HCFC-141b) has an ozone depleting potential (ODP, 0.11) and global warming potential (GWP, 782), and is widely used in the polyurethane foam and solvent sectors in China. This study compiles a comprehensive emission inventory of HCFC-141b during 2000-2013 and makes a projection to 2050. Our results showed that HCFC-141b emissions in China increased from 0.8 Gg/yr (0.6 CO2-eq Tg/yr) in 2000 to 15.8 Gg/yr (12.4 CO2-eq Tg/yr) in 2013 with an accelerated growth rate. The provincial emission distribution showed that Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are key emission areas in China. A large amount of stock was retained in installed equipment, which may have an impact in the future. For future phasing-out, it was estimated that under the Montreal Planned Phase-out scenario (MPP), the accumulative reduction of HCFC-141b emissions during 2014-2050 would be 3071.0 Gg (2401.5 CO2-eq Tg) compared to that under the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. This study reviewed and predicted HCFC-141b emissions and their environmental impacts in China.

Emissions of volatile organic compounds from hybrid poplar depend on CO2 concentration and genotype

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eller, A. S.; de Gouw, J. A.; Monson, R. K.

2010-12-01

Hybrid poplar is a fast-growing tree species that is likely to be an important source of biomass for the production of cellulose-based biofuels and may influence regional atmospheric chemistry through the emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We used proton-transfer reaction mass spectrometry to measure VOC emissions from the leaves of four different hybrid poplar genotypes grown under ambient (400 ppm) and elevated (650 ppm) carbon dioxide concentration (CO2). The purpose of this experiment was to determine whether VOC emissions are different among genotypes and whether these emissions are likely to change as atmospheric CO2 rises. Methanol and isoprene made up over 90% of the VOC emissions and were strongly dependent on leaf age, with young leaves producing primarily methanol and switching to isoprene production as they matured. Monoterpene emissions were small, but tended to be higher in young leaves. Plants grown under elevated CO2 emitted smaller quantities of both methanol and isoprene, but the magnitude of the effect was dependent on genotype. Isoprene emission rates from mature leaves dropped from ~35 to ~28 nmol m-2 s-1 when plants were grown under elevated CO2. Emissions from individuals grown under ambient CO2 varied more based on genotype than those grown under elevated CO2, which means that we might expect smaller differences between genotypes in the future. Genotype and CO2 also affected how much carbon (C) individuals allocated to the production of VOCs. The emission rate of C from VOCs was 0.5 - 2% of the rate at which C was assimilated via net photosynthesis. The % C emitted was strongly related to genotype; clones from crosses between Populus deltoides and P. trichocarpa (T x D) allocated a greater % of their C to VOC emissions than clones from crosses of P. deltoids and P. nigra (D x N). Individuals from all four genotypes allocated a smaller % of their C to the emission of VOCs when they were grown under elevated CO2. These results illustrate that even in closely related individuals there are inherent differences in VOC emissions that are not due to simple differences in metabolic rates and that elevated CO2 reduces these inherent differences. Even though VOC rates were lower under elevated CO2 they were still much higher than emissions reported for switchgrass, another biofuel species, which means that future regional air quality around biofuel plantations will be influenced by the choice of biofuel species.

Increasing leaf temperature reduces the suppression of isoprene emission by elevated CO₂ concentration.

PubMed

Potosnak, Mark J; Lestourgeon, Lauren; Nunez, Othon

2014-05-15

Including algorithms to account for the suppression of isoprene emission by elevated CO2 concentration affects estimates of global isoprene emission for future climate change scenarios. In this study, leaf-level measurements of isoprene emission were made to determine the short-term interactive effect of leaf temperature and CO2 concentration. For both greenhouse plants and plants grown under field conditions, the suppression of isoprene emission was reduced by increasing leaf temperature. For each of the four different tree species investigated, aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), cottonwood (Populus deltoides W. Bartram ex Marshall), red oak (Quercus rubra L.), and tundra dwarf willow (Salix pulchra Cham.), the suppression of isoprene by elevated CO2 was eliminated at increased temperature, and the maximum temperature where suppression was observed ranged from 25 to 35°C. Hypotheses proposed to explain the short-term suppression of isoprene emission by increased CO2 concentration were tested against this observation. Hypotheses related to cofactors in the methylerythritol phosphate (MEP) pathway were consistent with reduced suppression at elevated leaf temperature. Also, reduced solubility of CO2 with increased temperature can explain the reduced suppression for the phosphoenolpyruvate (PEP) carboxylase competition hypothesis. Some global models of isoprene emission include the short-term suppression effect, and should be modified to include the observed interaction. If these results are consistent at longer timescales, there are implications for predicting future global isoprene emission budgets and the reduced suppression at increased temperature could explain some of the variable responses observed in long-term CO2 exposure experiments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic and environmental costs of regulatory uncertainty for coal-fired power plants.

PubMed

Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Fischbeck, Paul; Kriegler, Elmar

2009-02-01

Uncertainty about the extent and timing of CO2 emissions regulations for the electricity-generating sector exacerbates the difficulty of selecting investment strategies for retrofitting or alternatively replacing existent coal-fired power plants. This may result in inefficient investments imposing economic and environmental costs to society. In this paper, we construct a multiperiod decision model with an embedded multistage stochastic dynamic program minimizing the expected total costs of plant operation, installations, and pollution allowances. We use the model to forecast optimal sequential investment decisions of a power plant operator with and without uncertainty about future CO2 allowance prices. The comparison of the two cases demonstrates that uncertainty on future CO2 emissions regulations might cause significant economic costs and higher air emissions.

Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K.; Matthews, D.

2010-12-01

If current greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations remain constant, the world would be committed to several centuries of increasing global mean temperatures and sea level rise. By contrast, near elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions would be required to produce diminishing GHG concentrations consistent with stabilization of mean temperatures. Yet long-lived energy and transportation infrastructure now operating can be expected to contribute substantial CO2 emissions over the next 50 years. Barring widespread retrofitting of existing power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies or the early decommissioning of serviceable infrastructure, these “committed emissions” represent infrastructural inertia which may be the primary contributor to total future warming commitment. With respect to GHG emissions, infrastructural inertia may be thought of as having two important and overlapping components: (i) infrastructure that directly releases GHGs to the atmosphere, and (ii) infrastructure that contributes to the continued production of devices that emit GHGs to the atmosphere. For example, the interstate highway and refueling infrastructure in the United States facilitates continued production of gasoline-powered automobiles. Here, we focus only on the warming commitment from infrastructure that directly releases CO2 to the atmosphere. Essentially, we answer the question: What if no additional CO2-emitting devices (e.g., power plants, motor vehicles) were built, but all the existing CO2-emitting devices were allowed to live out their normal lifetimes? What CO2 levels and global mean temperatures would we attain? Of course, the actual lifetime of devices may be strongly influenced by economic and policy constraints. For instance, a ban on new CO2-emitting devices would create tremendous incentive to prolong the lifetime of existing devices. Thus, our scenarios are not realistic, but offer a means of gauging the threat of climate change from existing devices relative to those devices that have yet to be built. We developed scenarios of global CO2 emissions from the energy sector using datasets of power plants and motor vehicles worldwide, as well as estimates of fossil fuel emissions produced directly by industry, households, businesses, and other forms of transport. We estimated lifetimes and annual emissions of infrastructure from historical data. We projected changes in CO2 and temperature in response to our calculated emissions using an intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model (UVic ESCM). We calculate cumulative future emissions of 496 (282 to 701) gigatonnes of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels by existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060, forcing mean warming of 1.3°C (1.1 to 1.4°C) above the preindustrial era and atmospheric concentrations of CO2 less than 430 parts per million (ppm). Because these conditions would likely avoid many key impacts of climate change, we conclude that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built. However, CO2-emitting infrastructure will expand unless extraordinary efforts are undertaken to develop alternatives.

Update on CO2 emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedingstein, P.; Houghton, R.A.; Marland, Gregg

2010-12-01

Emissions of CO2 are the main contributor to anthropogenic climate change. Here we present updated information on their present and near-future estimates. We calculate that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning decreased by 1.3% in 2009 owing to the global financial and economic crisis that started in 2008; this is half the decrease anticipated a year ago1. If economic growth proceeds as expected2, emissions are projected to increase by more than 3% in 2010, approaching the high emissions growth rates that were observed from 2000 to 20081, 3, 4. We estimate that recent CO2 emissions from deforestation and othermore » land-use changes (LUCs) have declined compared with the 1990s, primarily because of reduced rates of deforestation in the tropics5 and a smaller contribution owing to forest regrowth elsewhere.« less

Carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew

2018-03-01

Carbon-climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact the future climate by altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Zaehle et al. 2010). By modifying the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the carbon-climate feedbacks will also influence the future ocean acidification trajectory. Here, we use the CO2 emissions scenarios from four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with an Earth system model to project the future trajectories of ocean acidification with the inclusion of carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon-climate feedbacks can significantly impact the onset of undersaturated aragonite conditions in the Southern and Arctic oceans, the suitable habitat for tropical coral and the deepwater saturation states. Under the high-emissions scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6), the carbon-climate feedbacks advance the onset of surface water under saturation and the decline in suitable coral reef habitat by a decade or more. The impacts of the carbon-climate feedbacks are most significant for the medium- (RCP4.5) and low-emissions (RCP2.6) scenarios. For the RCP4.5 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks nearly double the area of surface water undersaturated with respect to aragonite and reduce by 50 % the surface water suitable for coral reefs. For the RCP2.6 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks reduce the area suitable for coral reefs by 40 % and increase the area of undersaturated surface water by 20 %. The sensitivity of ocean acidification to the carbon-climate feedbacks in the low to medium emission scenarios is important because recent CO2 emission reduction commitments are trying to transition emissions to such a scenario. Our study highlights the need to better characterise the carbon-climate feedbacks and ensure we do not underestimate the projected ocean acidification.

Estimates of CO2 from fires in the United States: implications for carbon management.

PubMed

Wiedinmyer, Christine; Neff, Jason C

2007-11-01

Fires emit significant amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere. These emissions, however, are highly variable in both space and time. Additionally, CO2 emissions estimates from fires are very uncertain. The combination of high spatial and temporal variability and substantial uncertainty associated with fire CO2 emissions can be problematic to efforts to develop remote sensing, monitoring, and inverse modeling techniques to quantify carbon fluxes at the continental scale. Policy and carbon management decisions based on atmospheric sampling/modeling techniques must account for the impact of fire CO2 emissions; a task that may prove very difficult for the foreseeable future. This paper addresses the variability of CO2 emissions from fires across the US, how these emissions compare to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and Net Primary Productivity, and the potential implications for monitoring programs and policy development. Average annual CO2 emissions from fires in the lower 48 (LOWER48) states from 2002-2006 are estimated to be 213 (+/- 50 std. dev.) Tg CO2 yr-1 and 80 (+/- 89 std. dev.) Tg CO2 yr-1 in Alaska. These estimates have significant interannual and spatial variability. Needleleaf forests in the Southeastern US and the Western US are the dominant source regions for US fire CO2 emissions. Very high emission years typically coincide with droughts, and climatic variability is a major driver of the high interannual and spatial variation in fire emissions. The amount of CO2 emitted from fires in the US is equivalent to 4-6% of anthropogenic emissions at the continental scale and, at the state-level, fire emissions of CO2 can, in some cases, exceed annual emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel usage. The CO2 released from fires, overall, is a small fraction of the estimated average annual Net Primary Productivity and, unlike fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the pulsed emissions of CO2 during fires are partially counterbalanced by uptake of CO2 by regrowing vegetation in the decades following fire. Changes in fire severity and frequency can, however, lead to net changes in atmospheric CO2 and the short-term impacts of fire emissions on monitoring, modeling, and carbon management policy are substantial.

How light, temperature, and measurement and growth [CO2] interactively control isoprene emission in hybrid aspen

PubMed Central

Niinemets, Ülo; Sun, Zhihong

2015-01-01

Plant isoprene emissions have been modelled assuming independent controls by light, temperature and atmospheric [CO2]. However, the isoprene emission rate is ultimately controlled by the pool size of its immediate substrate, dimethylallyl diphosphate (DMADP), and isoprene synthase activity, implying that the environmental controls might interact. In addition, acclimation to growth [CO2] can shift the share of the control by DMADP pool size and isoprene synthase activity, and thereby alter the environmental sensitivity. Environmental controls of isoprene emission were studied in hybrid aspen (Populus tremula × Populus tremuloides) saplings acclimated either to ambient [CO2] of 380 μmol mol–1 or elevated [CO2] of 780 μmol mol–1. The data demonstrated strong interactive effects of environmental drivers and growth [CO2] on isoprene emissions. Light enhancement of isoprene emission was the greatest at intermediate temperatures and was greater in elevated-[CO2]-grown plants, indicating greater enhancement of the DMADP supply. The optimum temperature for isoprene emission was higher at lower light, suggesting activation of alternative DMADP sinks at higher light. In addition, [CO2] inhibition of isoprene emission was lost at a higher temperature with particularly strong effects in elevated-[CO2]-grown plants. Nevertheless, DMADP pool size was still predicted to more strongly control isoprene emission at higher temperatures in elevated-[CO2]-grown plants. We argue that interactive environmental controls and acclimation to growth [CO2] should be incorporated in future isoprene emission models at the level of DMADP pool size. PMID:25399006

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)\\, Working Group 1, 1994: Modelling Results Relating Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations to Industrial Emissions (DB1009)

DOE Data Explorer

Enting, I. G.; Wigley, M. L.; Heimann, M.

1995-01-01

This database contains the results of various projections of the relation between future CO2 concentrations and future industrial emissions. These projections were contributed by groups from a number of countries as part of the scientific assessment for the report, "Radiative Forcing of Climate Change" (1994), issued by Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There were three types of calculations: (1) forward projections, calculating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from specified emissions scenarios; (2) inverse calculations, determining the emission rates that would be required to achieve stabilization of CO2 concentrations via specified pathways; (3) impulse response function calculations, required for determining Global Warming Potentials. The projections were extrapolations of global carbon cycle models from pre-industrial times (starting at 1765) to 2100 or 2200 A.D. There were two aspects to the exercise: (1) an assessment of the uncertainty due to uncertainties regarding the current carbon budget, and (2) an assessment of the uncertainties arising from differences between models. To separate these effects, a set of standard conditions was used to explore inter-model differences and then a series of sensitivity studies was used to explore the consequences of current uncertainties in the carbon cycle.

Origins and implications of the relationship between warming and cumulative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raupach, M. R.; Davis, S. J.; Peters, G. P.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J.; Le Quere, C.

2014-12-01

A near-linear relationship between warming (T) and cumulative carbon emissions (Q) is a robust finding from numerous studies. This finding opens biophysical questions concerning (1) its theoretical basis, (2) the treatment of non-CO2 forcings, and (3) uncertainty specifications. Beyond these biophysical issues, a profound global policy question is raised: (4) how can a quota on cumulative emissions be shared? Here, an integrated survey of all four issues is attempted. (1) Proportionality between T and Q is an emergent property of a linear carbon-climate system forced by exponentially increasing CO2 emissions. This idealisation broadly explains past but not future near-proportionality between T and Q: in future, the roles of non-CO2 forcings and carbon-climate nonlinearities become important, and trajectory dependence becomes stronger. (2) The warming effects of short-lived non-CO2 forcers depend on instantaneous rather than cumulative fluxes. However, inertia in emissions trajectories reinstates some of the benefits of a cumulative emissions approach, with residual trajectory dependence comparable to that for CO2. (3) Uncertainties arise from several sources: climate projections, carbon-climate feedbacks, and residual trajectory dependencies in CO2 and other emissions. All of these can in principle be combined into a probability distribution P(T|Q) for the warming T from given cumulative CO2 emissions Q. Present knowledge of P(T|Q) allows quantification of the tradeoff between mitigation ambition and climate risk. (4) Cumulative emissions consistent with a given warming target and climate risk are a finite common resource that will inevitably be shared, creating a tragedy-of-the-commons dilemma. Sharing options range from "inertia" (present distribution of emissions is maintained) to "equity" (cumulative emissions are distributed equally per-capita). Both extreme options lead to emissions distributions that are unrealisable in practice, but a blend of the two extremes may be realisable. This perspective provides a means for nations to compare the global consequences of their own proposed emissions quotas if others were to act in a consistent way, a critical step towards achieving consensus.

Effects of elevated nutrients and CO2 emission scenarios on three coral reef macroalgae.

PubMed

Bender-Champ, Dorothea; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Dove, Sophie

2017-05-01

Coral reef macroalgae are expected to thrive in the future under conditions that are deleterious to the health of reef-building corals. Here we examined how macroalgae would be affected by exposure to future CO 2 emission scenarios (pCO 2 and temperature), enriched nutrients and combinations of both. The species tested, Laurencia intricata (Rhodophyta), Turbinaria ornata and Chnoospora implexa (both Phaeophyceae), have active carbon-concentrating mechanisms but responded differently to the treatments. L. intricata showed high mortality under nutrient enriched RCP4.5 ("reduced" CO 2 emission) and RCP8.5 ("business-as-usual" CO 2 emission) and grew best under pre-industrial (PI) conditions, where it could take up carbon using external carbonic anhydrase combined, potentially, with proton extrusion. T. ornata's growth rate showed a trend for reduction under RCP8.5 but was unaffected by nutrient enrichment. In C. implexa, highest growth was observed under PI conditions, but highest net photosynthesis occurred under RCP8.5, suggesting that under RCP8.5, carbon is stored and respired at greater rates while it is directed to growth under PI conditions. None of the species showed growth enhancement under future scenarios, nutrient enrichment or combinations of both. This leads to the conclusion that under such conditions these species are unlikely to pose an increasing threat to coral reefs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Duffy, P.; Flannigan, M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, J.

2009-01-01

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO2fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO2 fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post-fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.

Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar.

PubMed

Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

2015-09-01

Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions. © 2015 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Stratospheric ozone depletion due to nitrous oxide: influences of other gases

PubMed Central

Portmann, R. W.; Daniel, J. S.; Ravishankara, A. R.

2012-01-01

The effects of anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and the halocarbons on stratospheric ozone (O3) over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are isolated using a chemical model of the stratosphere. The future evolution of ozone will depend on each of these gases, with N2O and CO2 probably playing the dominant roles as halocarbons return towards pre-industrial levels. There are nonlinear interactions between these gases that preclude unambiguously separating their effect on ozone. For example, the CH4 increase during the twentieth century reduced the ozone losses owing to halocarbon increases, and the N2O chemical destruction of O3 is buffered by CO2 thermal effects in the middle stratosphere (by approx. 20% for the IPCC A1B/WMO A1 scenario over the time period 1900–2100). Nonetheless, N2O is expected to continue to be the largest anthropogenic emission of an O3-destroying compound in the foreseeable future. Reductions in anthropogenic N2O emissions provide a larger opportunity for reduction in future O3 depletion than any of the remaining uncontrolled halocarbon emissions. It is also shown that 1980 levels of O3 were affected by halocarbons, N2O, CO2 and CH4, and thus may not be a good choice of a benchmark of O3 recovery. PMID:22451111

Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fofrich, R.; Shearer, C.; Davis, S. J.

2017-12-01

India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions due to its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves. In this study, we assess existing and proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future energy production and emissions in the country. In 2016, India had 369 coal-fired power plants under development totaling 243 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity. These coal-fired power plants would increase India's coal-fired generating capacity by 123% and would exceed India's projected electricity demand. Therefore, India's current proposals for new coal-fired power plants would be forced to retire early or operate at very low capacity factors and/or would prevent India from meeting its goal of producing at least 40% of its power from renewable sources by 2030. In addition, future emissions from proposed coal-fired power plants would exceed India's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% - 35% by 2030.

Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change

PubMed Central

Han, Xingguo; Sun, Xue; Wang, Cheng; Wu, Mengxiong; Dong, Da; Zhong, Ting; Thies, Janice E.; Wu, Weixiang

2016-01-01

Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations expected in the future. Adding biochar to paddy soil reduced CH4 emission under ambient conditions and significantly reduced emissions by 39.5% (ranging from 185.4 mg kg−1 dry weight soil, dws season−1 to 112.2 mg kg−1 dws season−1) under simultaneously elevated temperature and CO2. Reduced CH4 release was mainly attributable to the decreased activity of methanogens along with the increased CH4 oxidation activity and pmoA gene abundance of methanotrophs. Our findings highlight the valuable services of biochar amendment for CH4 control from paddy soil in a future that will be shaped by climate change. PMID:27090814

Historic Patterns of CO{sub 2} Emissions from Fossil Fuels: Implications for Stabilization of Emissions

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Andres, R. J.; Marland, G.

1994-06-01

This paper examines the historical record of greenhouse gas emissions since 1950, reviews the prospects for emissions into the future, and projects what would be the short-term outcome if the stated targets of the FCCC were in fact achieved. The examination focuses on the most important of the greenhouse gases, CO{sub 2}. The extensive record of historic CO{sub 2} emissions is explored to ascertain if it is an adequate basis for useful extrapolation into the near future. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption have been documented. Emissions grew at 4.3% per year from 1950 until the time of the 1973 oil crisis. Another disruption in growth followed the oil price increases of 1979. Global total emissions have been increasing steadily since the 1982-1983 minimum and have grown by more than 20% since then. At present, emission Of CO{sub 2} from fossil fuel burning is dominated by a few countries: the U.S., the former Soviet Union, China, the developed countries of Europe and Japan. Only 20 countries emit 84% of emissions from all countries. However, rates of growth in many of the developed countries are now very low. In contrast, energy use has grown rapidly over the last 20 years in some of the large, developing economies. Emissions from fossil fuel consumption are now nearly 4 times those from land use change and are the primary cause of measured increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2}. The increasing concentration of atmospheric CO{sub 2} has led to rising concern about the possibility of impending changes in the global climate system. In an effort to limit or mitigate potential negative effects of global climate change, 154 countries signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June, 1992. The FCCC asks all countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions setting non-binding targets.

Comparison of Surface and Column Variations of CO2 Over Urban Areas for Future Active Remote CO2 Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Yonghoon; Yang, Melissa; Kooi, Susan; Browell, Edward

2015-01-01

High resolution in-situ CO2 measurements were recorded onboard the NASA P-3B during the DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) Field Campaign, to investigate the ability of space-based observations to accurately assess near surface conditions related to air quality. This campaign includes, Washington DC/Baltimore, MD (July 2011), San Joaquin Valley, CA (January - February 2013), Houston, TX (September 2013), and Denver, CO (July-August 2014). Each of these campaigns consisted of missed approaches and approximately two hundred vertical soundings of CO2 within the lower troposphere (surface to about 5 km). In this study, surface (0 - 1 km) and column-averaged (0 - 3.5 km) CO2 mixing ratio values from the vertical soundings in the four geographically different urban areas are used to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of CO2 within the different urban atmospheric emission environments. Tracers such as CO, CH2O, NOx, and NMHCs are used to identify the source of CO2 variations in the urban sites. Additionally, we apply nominal CO2 column weighting functions for potential future active remote CO2 sensors operating in the 1.57-microns and 2.05-microns measurement regions to convert the in situ CO2 vertical mixing ratio profiles to variations in CO2 column optical depths, which is what the active remote sensors actually measure. Using statistics calculated from the optical depths at each urban site measured during the DISCOVER-AQ field campaign and for each nominal weighting function, we investigate the natural variability of CO2 columns in the lower troposphere; relate the CO2 column variability to the urban surface emissions; and show the measurement requirements for the future ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons) in the continental U.S. urban areas.

Emission characteristics of kerosene-air spray combustion with plasma assistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xingjian; He, Liming; Zeng, Hao; Jin, Tao; Chen, Yi; Zhang, Yihan; Liu, Pengfei

2015-09-01

A plasma assisted combustion system for combustion of kerosene-air mixtures was developed to study emission levels of O2, CO2, CO, and NOx. The emission measurement was conducted by Testo 350-Pro Flue Gas Analyzer. The effect of duty ratio, feedstock gas flow rate and applied voltage on emission performance has been analyzed. The results show that O2 and CO emissions reduce with an increase of applied voltage, while CO2 and NOx emissions increase. Besides, when duty ratio or feedstock gas flow rate decreases, the same emission results would appear. The emission spectrum of the air plasma of plasma assisted combustion actuator was also registered to analyze the kinetic enhancement effect of plasma, and the generation of ozone was believed to be the main factor that plasma makes a difference in our experiment. These results are valuable for the future optimization of kerosene-fueled aircraft engine when using plasma assisted combustion devices to exert emission control.

How light, temperature, and measurement and growth [CO2] interactively control isoprene emission in hybrid aspen.

PubMed

Niinemets, Ülo; Sun, Zhihong

2015-02-01

Plant isoprene emissions have been modelled assuming independent controls by light, temperature and atmospheric [CO2]. However, the isoprene emission rate is ultimately controlled by the pool size of its immediate substrate, dimethylallyl diphosphate (DMADP), and isoprene synthase activity, implying that the environmental controls might interact. In addition, acclimation to growth [CO2] can shift the share of the control by DMADP pool size and isoprene synthase activity, and thereby alter the environmental sensitivity. Environmental controls of isoprene emission were studied in hybrid aspen (Populus tremula × Populus tremuloides) saplings acclimated either to ambient [CO2] of 380 μmol mol(-1) or elevated [CO2] of 780 μmol mol(-1). The data demonstrated strong interactive effects of environmental drivers and growth [CO2] on isoprene emissions. Light enhancement of isoprene emission was the greatest at intermediate temperatures and was greater in elevated-[CO2]-grown plants, indicating greater enhancement of the DMADP supply. The optimum temperature for isoprene emission was higher at lower light, suggesting activation of alternative DMADP sinks at higher light. In addition, [CO2] inhibition of isoprene emission was lost at a higher temperature with particularly strong effects in elevated-[CO2]-grown plants. Nevertheless, DMADP pool size was still predicted to more strongly control isoprene emission at higher temperatures in elevated-[CO2]-grown plants. We argue that interactive environmental controls and acclimation to growth [CO2] should be incorporated in future isoprene emission models at the level of DMADP pool size. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran, 2025.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Maryam; Bekri, Mahmoud

2017-04-01

Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO 2 emission trends for Iran over 2000-2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO 2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO 2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO 2 emission outlines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Historical Carbon Dioxide Emissions Caused by Land-Use Changes are Possibly Larger than Assumed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Pongratz, J.; Stocker, B. D.; Ciais, P.; Poulter, B.; Bayer, A. D.; Bondeau, A.; Calle, L.; Chini, L. P.;

Estimates of CO2 traffic emissions from mobile concentration measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maness, H. L.; Thurlow, M. E.; McDonald, B. C.; Harley, R. A.

2015-03-01

We present data from a new mobile system intended to aid in the design of upcoming urban CO2-monitoring networks. Our collected data include GPS probe data, video-derived traffic density, and accurate CO2 concentration measurements. The method described here is economical, scalable, and self-contained, allowing for potential future deployment in locations without existing traffic infrastructure or vehicle fleet information. Using a test data set collected on California Highway 24 over a 2 week period, we observe that on-road CO2 concentrations are elevated by a factor of 2 in congestion compared to free-flow conditions. This result is found to be consistent with a model including vehicle-induced turbulence and standard engine physics. In contrast to surface concentrations, surface emissions are found to be relatively insensitive to congestion. We next use our model for CO2 concentration together with our data to independently derive vehicle emission rate parameters. Parameters scaling the leading four emission rate terms are found to be within 25% of those expected for a typical passenger car fleet, enabling us to derive instantaneous emission rates directly from our data that compare generally favorably to predictive models presented in the literature. The present results highlight the importance of high spatial and temporal resolution traffic data for interpreting on- and near-road concentration measurements. Future work will focus on transport and the integration of mobile platforms into existing stationary network designs.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to increased whole-plant isoprene emission in hybrid aspen (Populus tremula × Populus tremuloides).

PubMed

Sun, Zhihong; Niinemets, Ülo; Hüve, Katja; Rasulov, Bahtijor; Noe, Steffen M

2013-05-01

Effects of elevated atmospheric [CO2] on plant isoprene emissions are controversial. Relying on leaf-scale measurements, most models simulating isoprene emissions in future higher [CO2] atmospheres suggest reduced emission fluxes. However, combined effects of elevated [CO2] on leaf area growth, net assimilation and isoprene emission rates have rarely been studied on the canopy scale, but stimulation of leaf area growth may largely compensate for possible [CO2] inhibition reported at the leaf scale. This study tests the hypothesis that stimulated leaf area growth leads to increased canopy isoprene emission rates. We studied the dynamics of canopy growth, and net assimilation and isoprene emission rates in hybrid aspen (Populus tremula × Populus tremuloides) grown under 380 and 780 μmol mol(-1) [CO2]. A theoretical framework based on the Chapman-Richards function to model canopy growth and numerically compare the growth dynamics among ambient and elevated atmospheric [CO2]-grown plants was developed. Plants grown under elevated [CO2] had higher C : N ratio, and greater total leaf area, and canopy net assimilation and isoprene emission rates. During ontogeny, these key canopy characteristics developed faster and stabilized earlier under elevated [CO2]. However, on a leaf area basis, foliage physiological traits remained in a transient state over the whole experiment. These results demonstrate that canopy-scale dynamics importantly complements the leaf-scale processes, and that isoprene emissions may actually increase under higher [CO2] as a result of enhanced leaf area production. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Species-specific responses to climate change and community composition determine future calcification rates of Florida Keys reefs.

PubMed

Okazaki, Remy R; Towle, Erica K; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Mor, Carolina; Winter, Rivah N; Piggot, Alan M; Cunning, Ross; Baker, Andrew C; Klaus, James S; Swart, Peter K; Langdon, Chris

2017-03-01

Anthropogenic climate change compromises reef growth as a result of increasing temperatures and ocean acidification. Scleractinian corals vary in their sensitivity to these variables, suggesting species composition will influence how reef communities respond to future climate change. Because data are lacking for many species, most studies that model future reef growth rely on uniform scleractinian calcification sensitivities to temperature and ocean acidification. To address this knowledge gap, calcification of twelve common and understudied Caribbean coral species was measured for two months under crossed temperatures (27, 30.3 °C) and CO 2 partial pressures (pCO 2 ) (400, 900, 1300 μatm). Mixed-effects models of calcification for each species were then used to project community-level scleractinian calcification using Florida Keys reef composition data and IPCC AR5 ensemble climate model data. Three of the four most abundant species, Orbicella faveolata, Montastraea cavernosa, and Porites astreoides, had negative calcification responses to both elevated temperature and pCO 2 . In the business-as-usual CO 2 emissions scenario, reefs with high abundances of these species had projected end-of-century declines in scleractinian calcification of >50% relative to present-day rates. Siderastrea siderea, the other most common species, was insensitive to both temperature and pCO 2 within the levels tested here. Reefs dominated by this species had the most stable end-of-century growth. Under more optimistic scenarios of reduced CO 2 emissions, calcification rates throughout the Florida Keys declined <20% by 2100. Under the most extreme emissions scenario, projected declines were highly variable among reefs, ranging 10-100%. Without considering bleaching, reef growth will likely decline on most reefs, especially where resistant species like S. siderea are not already dominant. This study demonstrates how species composition influences reef community responses to climate change and how reduced CO 2 emissions can limit future declines in reef calcification. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tidal variability of CO2 and CH4 emissions from the water column within a Rhizophora mangrove forest (New Caledonia).

PubMed

Jacotot, Adrien; Marchand, Cyril; Allenbach, Michel

2018-08-01

We performed a preliminary study to quantify CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from the water column within a Rhizophora spp. mangrove forest. Mean CO 2 and CH 4 emissions during the studied period were 3.35±3.62mmolCm -2 h -1 and 18.30±27.72μmolCm -2 h -1 , respectively. CO 2 and CH 4 emissions were highly variable and mainly driven by tides (flow/ebb, water column thickness, neap/spring). Indeed, an inverse relationship between the magnitude of the emissions and the thickness of the water column above the mangrove soil was observed. δ 13 CO 2 values ranged from -26.88‰ to -8.6‰, suggesting a mixing between CO 2 -enriched pore waters and lagoon incoming waters. In addition, CO 2 and CH 4 emissions were significantly higher during ebb tides, mainly due to the progressive enrichment of the water column by diffusive fluxes as its residence time over the forest floor increased. Eventually, we observed higher CO 2 and CH 4 emissions during spring tides than during neap tides, combined to depleted δ 13 CO 2 values, suggesting a higher contribution of soil-produced gases to the emissions. These higher emissions may result from higher renewable of the electron acceptor and enhanced exchange surface between the soil and the water column. This study shows that CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from the water column were not negligible and must be considered in future carbon budgets in mangroves. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiscale observations of CO2, 13CO2, and pollutants at Four Corners for emission verification and attribution

PubMed Central

Lindenmaier, Rodica; Dubey, Manvendra K.; Henderson, Bradley G.; Butterfield, Zachary T.; Herman, Jay R.; Rahn, Thom; Lee, Sang-Hyun

2014-01-01

There is a pressing need to verify air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic fossil energy sources to enforce current and future regulations. We demonstrate the feasibility of using simultaneous remote sensing observations of column abundances of CO2, CO, and NO2 to inform and verify emission inventories. We report, to our knowledge, the first ever simultaneous column enhancements in CO2 (3–10 ppm) and NO2 (1–3 Dobson Units), and evidence of δ13CO2 depletion in an urban region with two large coal-fired power plants with distinct scrubbing technologies that have resulted in ∆NOx/∆CO2 emission ratios that differ by a factor of two. Ground-based total atmospheric column trace gas abundances change synchronously and correlate well with simultaneous in situ point measurements during plume interceptions. Emission ratios of ∆NOx/∆CO2 and ∆SO2/∆CO2 derived from in situ atmospheric observations agree with those reported by in-stack monitors. Forward simulations using in-stack emissions agree with remote column CO2 and NO2 plume observations after fine scale adjustments. Both observed and simulated column ∆NO2/∆CO2 ratios indicate that a large fraction (70–75%) of the region is polluted. We demonstrate that the column emission ratios of ∆NO2/∆CO2 can resolve changes from day-to-day variation in sources with distinct emission factors (clean and dirty power plants, urban, and fires). We apportion these sources by using NO2, SO2, and CO as signatures. Our high-frequency remote sensing observations of CO2 and coemitted pollutants offer promise for the verification of power plant emission factors and abatement technologies from ground and space. PMID:24843169

Energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in Iran, 2025

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirzaei, Maryam

Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emission trends for Iran over 2000–2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO{sub 2} emissions in 2025 will reach 985more » million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO{sub 2} emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO{sub 2} emission outlines. - Highlights: • Creation of an energy consumption model using system dynamics. • The effect of different policies on energy consumption and emission reductions. • An ascending trend for the environmental costs caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is observed. • An urgent need for energy saving and emission reductions in Iran.« less

Sharing global CO2 emission reductions among one billion high emitters

PubMed Central

Chakravarty, Shoibal; Chikkatur, Ananth; de Coninck, Heleen; Pacala, Stephen; Socolow, Robert; Tavoni, Massimo

2009-01-01

We present a framework for allocating a global carbon reduction target among nations, in which the concept of “common but differentiated responsibilities” refers to the emissions of individuals instead of nations. We use the income distribution of a country to estimate how its fossil fuel CO2 emissions are distributed among its citizens, from which we build up a global CO2 distribution. We then propose a simple rule to derive a universal cap on global individual emissions and find corresponding limits on national aggregate emissions from this cap. All of the world's high CO2-emitting individuals are treated the same, regardless of where they live. Any future global emission goal (target and time frame) can be converted into national reduction targets, which are determined by “Business as Usual” projections of national carbon emissions and in-country income distributions. For example, reducing projected global emissions in 2030 by 13 GtCO2 would require the engagement of 1.13 billion high emitters, roughly equally distributed in 4 regions: the U.S., the OECD minus the U.S., China, and the non-OECD minus China. We also modify our methodology to place a floor on emissions of the world's lowest CO2 emitters and demonstrate that climate mitigation and alleviation of extreme poverty are largely decoupled. PMID:19581586

Life Comparative Analysis of Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions of Different Building Structural Frame Types

PubMed Central

Kim, Sangyong; Moon, Joon-Ho; Shin, Yoonseok; Kim, Gwang-Hee; Seo, Deok-Seok

2013-01-01

The objective of this research is to quantitatively measure and compare the environmental load and construction cost of different structural frame types. Construction cost also accounts for the costs of CO2 emissions of input materials. The choice of structural frame type is a major consideration in construction, as this element represents about 33% of total building construction costs. In this research, four constructed buildings were analyzed, with these having either reinforced concrete (RC) or steel (S) structures. An input-output framework analysis was used to measure energy consumption and CO2 emissions of input materials for each structural frame type. In addition, the CO2 emissions cost was measured using the trading price of CO2 emissions on the International Commodity Exchange. This research revealed that both energy consumption and CO2 emissions were, on average, 26% lower with the RC structure than with the S structure, and the construction costs (including the CO2 emissions cost) of the RC structure were about 9.8% lower, compared to the S structure. This research provides insights through which the construction industry will be able to respond to the carbon market, which is expected to continue to grow in the future. PMID:24227998

Towards Verifying National CO2 Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, I. Y.; Wuerth, S. M.; Anderson, J. L.

2017-12-01

With the Paris Agreement, nations around the world have pledged their voluntary reductions in future CO2 emissions. Satellite observations of atmospheric CO2 have the potential to verify self-reported emission statistics around the globe. We present a carbon-weather data assimilation system, wherein raw weather observations together with satellite observations of the mixing ratio of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 are assimilated every 6 hours into the NCAR carbon-climate model CAM5 coupled to the Ensemble Kalman Filter of DART. In an OSSE, we reduced the fossil fuel emissions from a country, and estimated the emissions innovations demanded by the atmospheric CO2 observations. The uncertainties in the innovation are analyzed with respect to the uncertainties in the meteorology to determine the significance of the result. The work follows from "On the use of incomplete historical data to infer the present state of the atmosphere" (Charney et al. 1969), which maps the path for continuous data assimilation for weather forecasting and the five decades of progress since.

Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, J. Jason; Smith, Steven J.; Silva, Raquel A.; Naik, Vaishali; Zhang, Yuqiang; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; Anenberg, Susan; Horowitz, Larry W.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2013-10-01

Actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions often reduce co-emitted air pollutants, bringing co-benefits for air quality and human health. Past studies typically evaluated near-term and local co-benefits, neglecting the long-range transport of air pollutants, long-term demographic changes, and the influence of climate change on air quality. Here we simulate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health using a global atmospheric model and consistent future scenarios, via two mechanisms: reducing co-emitted air pollutants, and slowing climate change and its effect on air quality. We use new relationships between chronic mortality and exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone, global modelling methods and new future scenarios. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG mitigation avoids 0.5+/-0.2, 1.3+/-0.5 and 2.2+/-0.8 million premature deaths in 2030, 2050 and 2100. Global average marginal co-benefits of avoided mortality are US$50-380 per tonne of CO2, which exceed previous estimates, exceed marginal abatement costs in 2030 and 2050, and are within the low range of costs in 2100. East Asian co-benefits are 10-70 times the marginal cost in 2030. Air quality and health co-benefits, especially as they are mainly local and near-term, provide strong additional motivation for transitioning to a low-carbon future.

Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Cole, Wesley; Lantz, Eric

Federal tax credits for renewable energy (RE) have served as one of the primary financial incentives for RE deployment over the last two decades in the United States. In December 2015, the wind power production tax credit and solar investment tax credits were extended for five years as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016. This report explores the impact that these tax credit extensions might have on future RE capacity deployment and power sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The analysis examines the impacts of the tax credit extensions under two distinct natural gas price futures as natural gasmore » prices have been key factors in influencing the economic competitiveness of new RE development. The analysis finds that, in both natural gas price futures, RE tax credit extensions can spur RE capacity investments at least through the early 2020s and can help lower emissions from the U.S. electricity system. More specifically, the RE tax credit extensions are estimated to drive a net peak increase of 48-53 GW in installed RE capacity in the early 2020s -- longer term impacts are less certain. In the longer term after the tax credits ramp down, greater RE capacity is driven by a combination of assumed RE cost declines, rising fossil fuel prices, and other clean energy policies such as the Clean Power Plan. The tax credit extension-driven acceleration in RE capacity development can reduce fossil fuel-based generation and lower electric sector CO2 emissions. Cumulative emissions reductions over a 15-year period (spanning 2016-2030) as a result of the tax credit extensions are estimated to range from 540 to 1420 million metric tonnes CO2. These findings suggest that tax credit extensions can have a measurable impact on future RE deployment and electric sector CO2 emissions under a range of natural gas price futures.« less

Managing CO{sub 2} emissions in Nigeria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Obioh, I.B.; Oluwole, A.F.; Akeredolu, F.A.

The energy resources in Nigeria are nearly equally divided between fossil fuels and biofuels. The increasing pressure on them, following expected increased population growth, may lead to substantial emissions of carbon into the atmosphere. Additionally agricultural and forestry management practices in vogue are those related to savannah burning and rotational bush fallow systems, which have been clearly implicated as important sources of CO{sub 2} and trace gases. An integrated model for the prediction of future CO{sub 2} emissions based on fossil fuels and biomass fuels requirements, rates of deforestation and other land-use indices is presented. This is further based onmore » trends in population and economic growth up to the year 2025, with a base year in 1988. A coupled carbon cycle-climate model based on the contribution of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases is established from the proportions of integrated global warming effects for a 20-year averaging time using the product of global warming potential (GWP) and total emissions. An energy-technology inventory approach to optimal resources management is used as a tool for establishing the future scope of reducing the CO{sub 2} emissions through improved fossil fuel energy efficiencies. Scenarios for reduction based on gradual to swift shifts from biomass to fossil and renewable fuels are presented together with expected policy options required to effect them.« less

The Relationship Between Emissions and Economic Growth for SO2, CO2, and BC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ru, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Tao, S.; Zhong, Q.; Seltzer, K.

2017-12-01

We characterize the relationship between per person emissions of SO2, CO2, and black carbon (BC) and income using a global country-level emission inventory. Pollutant emissions of SO2 and BC from the power, industry, and transportation sectors largely follow an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) pattern with peak emissions at income levels between 10,000 and 100,000 USD per capita. However, for CO2, any estimated turnover income is extremely high and unlikely to be reached in the near future in power, industry, and transportation. Residential emissions show a negatively sloped linear relationship for BC, a small positive slope for CO2, and a fairly flat trajectory for SO2. For the EKC-like trajectories, "turning point" incomes for each sector and pollutant are related to technological advances and the effectiveness of emission controls. These results suggest that policy targeting technological advances and emission controls could change future pathways by affecting the "turning point" incomes. For the linear trajectories in the residential sector, we show that transitions from biomass fuel to coal in low-income countries and from coal to natural gas in middle and high-income countries, in concert with electrification levels, are the main factors governing slopes. Thus, the three pollutants show different income-emission trajectories based on the sum of the four major sectors, and the residential sector in particular has a unique relationship with income growth. As one of the first studies to analyze historical emission trajectories of BC, we find that BC differs from SO2 and CO2 because of its significantly earlier turnover in the power and industry sectors due to control policies. Total BC emissions trajectories follow a unique shape due to the combination of linearly decreasing residential emissions with EKC-like patterns in industry and transportation. We compare these trajectories to those in three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), GCAM, AIM, and MESSAGE, finding large differences for residential sector trajectories and earlier estimations of turnover incomes in the IAMs. Users of IAMs should consider the assumptions underlying projected emissions in light of this historical analysis, especially the apparently optimistic turnover incomes and residential sector emissions.

Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) Emissions in China: An Inventory for 2005-2013 and Projections to 2050.

PubMed

Fang, Xuekun; Velders, Guus J M; Ravishankara, A R; Molina, Mario J; Hu, Jianxin; Prinn, Ronald G

2016-02-16

Many hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) that are widely used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (now regulated under the Montreal Protocol) are very potent greenhouse gases (GHGs). China's past and future HFC emissions are of great interest because China has emerged as a major producer and consumer of HFCs. Here, we present for the first time a comprehensive inventory estimate of China's HFC emissions during 2005-2013. Results show a rapid increase in HFC production, consumption, and emissions in China during the period and that the emissions of HFC with a relatively high global warming potential (GWP) grew faster than those with a relatively low GWP. The proportions of China's historical HFC CO2-equivalent emissions to China's CO2 emissions or global HFC CO2-equivalent emissions increased rapidly during 2005-2013. Using the "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario, in which HFCs are used to replace a significant fraction of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) in China (to date, there are no regulations on HFC uses in China), emissions of HFCs are projected to be significant components of China's and global future GHG emissions. However, potentials do exist for minimizing China's HFC emissions (for example, if regulations on HFC uses are established in China). Our findings on China's historical and projected HFC emission trajectories could also apply to other developing countries, with important implications for mitigating global GHG emissions.

Response of the global climate to changes in atmospheric chemical composition due to fossil fuel burning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.; Hogan, J. S.

1980-01-01

Recent modeling of atmospheric chemical processes (Logan et al, 1978; Hameed et al, 1979) suggests that tropospheric ozone and methane might significantly increase in the future as the result of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO(x), and CH4 due to fossil fuel burning. Since O3 and CH4 are both greenhouse gases, increases in their concentrations could augment global warming due to larger future amounts of atmospheric CO2. To test the possible climatic impact of changes in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balance climate model has been combined with a vertically averaged tropospheric chemical model. The latter model includes all relevant chemical reactions which affect species derived from H2O, O2, CH4, and NO(x). The climate model correspondingly incorporates changes in the infrared heating of the surface-troposphere system resulting from chemically induced changes in tropospheric ozone and methane. This coupled climate-chemical model indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NO(x) and CH4, and that future increases in these emissions could augment global warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

2010-06-01

Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

Estimated lag time in global carbon emissions and CO2 concentrations produced by commercial nuclear power through 2009 with projections through 2030.

PubMed

Coleman, Neil M; Abramson, Lee R; Coleman, Fiona A B

2012-03-01

This study examines the past and future impact of nuclear reactors on anthropogenic carbon emissions to the atmosphere. If nuclear power had never been commercially developed, what additional global carbon emissions would have occurred? More than 44 y of global nuclear power have caused a lag time of at least 1.2 y in carbon emissions and CO2 concentrations through the end of 2009. This lag time incorporates the contribution of life cycle carbon emissions due to the construction and operation of nuclear plants. Cumulative global carbon emissions would have been about 13 Gt greater through 2009, and the mean annual CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa would have been ~2.7 ppm greater than without nuclear power. This study finds that an additional 14–17 Gt of atmospheric carbon emissions could be averted by the global use of nuclear power through 2030, for a cumulative total of 27–30 Gt averted during the period 1965–2030. This result is based on International Atomic Energy Agency projections of future growth in nuclear power from 2009–2030, modified by the recent loss or permanent shutdown of 14 reactors in Japan and Germany

Effects of soil water content and elevated CO2 concentration on the monoterpene emission rate of Cryptomeria japonica.

PubMed

Mochizuki, Tomoki; Amagai, Takashi; Tani, Akira

2018-09-01

Monoterpenes emitted from plants contribute to the formation of secondary pollution and affect the climate system. Monoterpene emission rates may be affected by environmental changes such as increasing CO 2 concentration caused by fossil fuel burning and drought stress induced by climate change. We measured monoterpene emissions from Cryptomeria japonica clone saplings grown under different CO 2 concentrations (control: ambient CO 2 level, elevated CO 2 : 1000μmolmol -1 ). The saplings were planted in the ground and we did not artificially control the SWC. The relationship between the monoterpene emissions and naturally varying SWC was investigated. The dominant monoterpene was α-pinene, followed by sabinene. The monoterpene emission rates were exponentially correlated with temperature for all measurements and normalized (35°C) for each measurement day. The daily normalized monoterpene emission rates (E s0.10 ) were positively and linearly correlated with SWC under both control and elevated CO 2 conditions (control: r 2 =0.55, elevated CO 2 : r 2 =0.89). The slope of the regression line of E s0.10 against SWC was significantly higher under elevated CO 2 than under control conditions (ANCOVA: P<0.01), indicating that the effect of CO 2 concentration on monoterpene emission rates differed by soil water status. The monoterpene emission rates estimated by considering temperature and SWC (Improved G93 algorithm) better agreed with the measured monoterpene emission rates, when compared with the emission rates estimated by considering temperature alone (G93 algorithm). Our results demonstrated that the combined effects of SWC and CO 2 concentration are important for controlling the monoterpene emissions from C. japonica clone saplings. If these relationships can be applied to the other coniferous tree species, our results may be useful to improve accuracy of monoterpene emission estimates from the coniferous forests as affected by climate change in the present and foreseeable future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GOSAT/TANSO-FTS Measurement of Volcanic and Geothermal CO2 Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwandner, Florian M.; Carn, Simon A.; Newhall, Christopher G.

2010-05-01

Approximately one tenth of the Earth's human population lives in direct reach of volcanic hazards. Being able to provide sufficiently early and scientifically sound warning is a key to volcanic hazard mitigation. Quantitative time-series monitoring of volcanic CO2 emissions will likely play a key role in such early warning activities in the future. Impending volcanic eruptions or any potentially disastrous activity that involves movement of magma in the subsurface, is often preceded by an early increase of CO2 emissions. Conventionally, volcanic CO2 monitoring is done either in campaigns of soil emission measurements (grid of one-time measuring points) that are labor intensive and slow, or by ground-based remote FTIR measurements in emission plumes. These methods are not easily available at all sites of potential activity and prohibitively costly to employ on a large number of volcanoes. In addition, both of these ground-based approaches pose a significant risk to the workers conducting these measurements. Some aircraft-based measurements have been conducted as well in the past, however these are limited by the usually meager funding situation of individual observatories, the hazard such flights pose to equipment and crew, and by the inaccessibility of parts of the plume due to ash hazards. The core motivation for this study is therefore to develop a method for volcanic CO2 monitoring from space that will provide sufficient coverage, resolution, and data quality for an application to quantitative time series monitoring and correlation with other available datasets, from a safe distance and with potentially global reach. In summary, the purpose of the proposed research is to quantify volcanic CO2 emissions using satellite-borne observations. Quantitative estimates will be useful for warning of impending volcanic eruptions, and assessing the contribution of volcanic CO2 to global GHG. Our approach encompasses method development and testing for the detection of volcanic CO2 anomalies using GOSAT and correlation with Aura/OMI, AIRS, and ASTER determined SO2 fluxes and ground based monitoring of CO2 and other geophysical and geochemical parameters. This will provide the ground work for future higher spatial resolution satellite missions. This is a joint effort from two GOSAT-IBUKI data application projects: "Satellite-Borne Quantification of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Volcanoes and Geothermal Areas" (PI Schwandner), and "Application of GOSAT/TANSO-FTS to the Measurement of Volcanic CO2 Emissions" (PI Carn).

The Hestia Project: High Spatial Resolution Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions Quantification at Hourly Scale in Indianapolis, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Gurney, K. R.

2009-12-01

In order to advance the scientific understanding of carbon exchange with the land surface and contribute to sound, quantitatively-based U.S. climate change policy interests, quantification of greenhouse gases emissions drivers at fine spatial and temporal scales is essential. Quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the primary greenhouse gases, has become a key component to cost-effective CO2 emissions mitigation options and a carbon trading system. Called the ‘Hestia Project’, this pilot study generated CO2 emissions down to high spatial resolution and hourly scale for the greater Indianapolis region in the USA through the use of air quality and traffic monitoring data, remote sensing, GIS, and building energy modeling. The CO2 emissions were constructed from three data source categories: area, point, and mobile. For the area source emissions, we developed an energy consumption model using DOE/EIA survey data on building characteristics and energy consumption. With the Vulcan Project’s county-level CO2 emissions and simulated building energy consumption, we quantified the CO2 emissions for each individual building by allocating Vulcan emissions to roughly 50,000 structures in Indianapolis. The temporal pattern of CO2 emissions in each individual building was developed based on temporal patterns of energy consumption. The point sources emissions were derived from the EPA National Emissions Inventory data and effluent monitoring of electricity producing facilities. The mobile source CO2 emissions were estimated at the month/county scale using the Mobile6 combustion model and the National Mobile Inventory Model database. The month/county scale mobile source CO2 emissions were downscaled to the “native” spatial resolution of road segments every hour using a GIS road atlas and traffic monitoring data. The result is shown in Figure 1. The resulting urban-scale inventory can serve as a baseline of current CO2 emissions and should be of immediate use to city environmental managers and regional industry as they plan emission mitigation options and project future emission trends. The results obtained here will also be a useful comparison to atmospheric CO2 monitoring efforts from the top-down. Figure 1. Location of the study area, the building level and mobile CO2 emissions, and an enlarged example neighborhood

Greenhouse gas emissions in the state of Morelos, Mexico: a first approximation for establishing mitigation strategies.

PubMed

Quiroz-Castañeda, Rosa Estela; Sánchez-Salinas, Enrique; Castrejón-Godínez, María Luisa; Ortiz-Hernández, Ma Laura

2013-11-01

In this study, the authors report the first greenhouse gas emission inventory of Morelos, a state in central Mexico, in which the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have been identified using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were estimated as CO2 equivalents (CO2 eq) for the years 2005, 2007, and 2009, with 2005 being treated as the base year. The percentage contributions from each category to the CO2 eq emissions in the base year were as follows: 38% from energy, 30% from industrial processes, 23% from waste, 5% from agriculture, and 4% from land use/land use change and forestry (LULUCF). As observed in other state inventories in Mexico, road transportation is the main source of CO2 emissions, wastewater handling and solid waste disposal are the main sources of CH4 emissions, and agricultural soils are the source of the most significant N2O emissions. The information reported in this inventory identifies the main emission sources. Based on these results, the government can propose public policies specifically designed for the state of Morelos to establish GHG mitigation strategies in the near future.

The travel-related carbon dioxide emissions of atmospheric researchers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stohl, A.

2008-11-01

Most atmospheric scientists agree that greenhouse gas emissions have already caused significant changes to the global climate system and that these changes will accelerate in the near future. At the same time, atmospheric scientists who like other scientists rely on international collaboration and information exchange travel a lot and, thereby, cause substantial emissions of CO2. In this paper, the CO2 emissions of the employees working at an atmospheric research institute (the Norwegian Institute for Air Research, NILU) caused by all types of business travel (conference visits, workshops, field campaigns, instrument maintainance, etc.) were calculated for the years 2005 2007. It is estimated that more than 90% of the emissions were caused by air travel, 3% by ground travel and 5% by hotel usage. The travel-related annual emissions were between 1.9 and 2.4 t CO2 per employee or between 3.9 and 5.5 t CO2 per scientist. For comparison, the total annual per capita CO2 emissions are 4.5 t worldwide, 1.2 t for India, 3.8 t for China, 5.9 t for Sweden and 19.1 t for Norway. The travel-related CO2 emissions of a NILU scientist, occurring in 24 days of a year on average, exceed the global average annual per capita emission. Norway's per-capita CO2 emissions are among the highest in the world, mostly because of the emissions from the oil industry. If the emissions per NILU scientist derived in this paper are taken as representative for the average Norwegian researcher, travel by Norwegian scientists would nevertheless account for a substantial 0.2% of Norway's total CO2 emissions. Since most of the travel-related emissions are due to air travel, water vapor emissions, ozone production and contrail formation further increase the relative importance of NILU's travel in terms of radiative forcing.

The travel-related carbon dioxide emissions of atmospheric researchers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stohl, A.

2008-04-01

Most atmospheric scientists agree that greenhouse gas emissions have already caused significant changes to the global climate system and that these changes will accelerate in the near future. At the same time, atmospheric scientists who - like other scientists - rely on international collaboration and information exchange travel a lot and, thereby, cause substantial emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). In this paper, the CO2 emissions of the employees working at an atmospheric research institute (the Norwegian Institute for Air Research, NILU) caused by all types of business travel (conference visits, workshops, field campaigns, instrument maintainance, etc.) were calculated for the years 2005-2007. It is estimated that more than 90% of the emissions were caused by air travel, 3% by ground travel and 5% by hotel usage. The travel-related annual emissions were between 1.9 and 2.4 t CO2 per employee or between 3.9 and 5.5 t CO2 per scientist. For comparison, the total annual per capita CO2 emissions are 4.5 t worldwide, 1.2 t for India, 3.8 t for China, 5.9 t for Sweden and 19.1 t for Norway. The travel-related CO2 emissions of a NILU scientist, occurring in 24 days of a year on average, exceed the global average annual per capita emission. Norway's per-capita CO2 emissions are among the highest in the world, mostly because of the emissions from the oil industry. If the emissions per NILU scientist derived in this paper are taken as representative for the average Norwegian researcher, travel by Norwegian scientists would nevertheless account for a substantial 0.2% of Norway's total CO2 emissions. Since most of the travel-related emissions are due to air travel, water vapor emissions, ozone production and contrail formation further increase the relative importance of NILU's travel in terms of radiative forcing.

Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

West, Jason; Smith, Steven J.; Silva, Raquel

2013-10-01

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions also influences air quality. We simulate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health via two mechanisms: a) reducing co-emitted air pollutants, and b) slowing climate change and its effect on air quality. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG mitigation in the RCP4.5 scenario avoids 0.5±0.2, 1.3±0.6, and 2.2±1.6 million premature deaths in 2030, 2050, and 2100, from changes in fine particulate matter and ozone. Global average marginal co-benefits of avoided mortality are $40-400 (ton CO2)-1, exceeding marginal abatement costs in 2030 and 2050, and within the low range ofmore » costs in 2100. East Asian co-benefits are 10-80 times the marginal cost in 2030. These results indicate that transitioning to a low-carbon future might be justified by air quality and health co-benefits.« less

Straw enhanced CO2 and CH4 but decreased N2O emissions from flooded paddy soils: Changes in microbial community compositions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ning; Yu, Jian-Guang; Zhao, Ya-Hui; Chang, Zhi-Zhou; Shi, Xiao-Xia; Ma, Lena Q.; Li, Hong-Bo

2018-02-01

To explore microbial mechanisms of straw-induced changes in CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from paddy field, wheat straw was amended to two paddy soils from Taizhou (TZ) and Yixing (YX), China for 60 d under flooded condition. Illumia sequencing was used to characterize shift in bacterial community compositions. Compared to control, 1-5% straw amendment significantly elevated CO2 and CH4 emissions with higher increase at higher application rates, mainly due to increased soil DOC concentrations. In contrast, straw amendment decreased N2O emission. Considering CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions as a whole, an overall increase in global warming potential was observed with straw amendment. Total CO2 and CH4 emissions from straw-amended soils were significantly higher for YX than TZ soil, suggesting that straw-induced greenhouse gas emissions depended on soil characteristics. The abundance of C-turnover bacteria Firmicutes increased from 28-41% to 54-77% with straw amendment, thereby increasing CO2 and CH4 emissions. However, straw amendment reduced the abundance of denitrifying bacteria Proteobacteria from 18% to 7.2-13% or increased the abundance of N2O reducing bacteria Clostridium from 7.6-11% to 13-30%, thereby decreasing N2O emission. The results suggested straw amendment strongly influenced greenhouse gas emissions via alerting soil properties and bacterial community compositions. Future field application is needed to ascertain the effects of straw return on greenhouse gas emissions.

Is rapid growth in Internet usage environmentally sustainable for Australia? An empirical investigation.

PubMed

Salahuddin, Mohammad; Alam, Khorshed; Ozturk, Ilhan

2016-03-01

This study estimates the short- and long-run effects of Internet usage and economic growth on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using annual time series macro data for Australia for the period 1985-2012. Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds and Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration tests are applied. ARDL estimates indicate no significant long-run relationship between Internet usage and CO2 emissions, which implies that the rapid growth in Internet usage is still not an environmental threat for Australia. The study further indicates that higher level of economic growth is associated with lower level of CO2 emissions; however, Internet usage and economic growth have no significant short-run relationship with CO2 emissions. Financial development has both short-run and long-run significant positive association with CO2 emissions. The findings offer support in favor of energy efficiency gains and a reduction in energy intensity in Australia. However, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis suggest that Internet usage, economic growth and financial development will continue to impact CO2 emissions in the future, and as such, this study recommends that in addition to the existing measures to combat CO2 emissions, Australia needs to exploit the potential of the Internet not only to reduce its own carbon footprint but also to utilize information and communication technology (ICT)-enabled emissions abatement potential to reduce emissions in various other sectors across the economy, such as, power, renewable energy especially in solar and wind energy, agriculture, transport and service.

Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y. H.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Pinder, R. W.

2015-11-01

We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that reduces 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using NASA GISS ModelE2, we look at the impacts in year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions and the rest of the world emissions are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in the future but result in positive radiative forcing. Surface PM2.5 is reduced by ~ 2 μg m-3 on average over the US, and surface ozone by ~ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the US, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (~ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduces the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) by both aerosols direct and indirect forcing: total RF is ~ 0.04 W m-2 over the globe; ~ 0.8 W m-2 over the US. Under the hypothetical climate policy, future US energy relies less on coal and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it leads to climate dis-benefits over the US. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m-2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is -0.06 W m-2 due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multi-national efforts to reduce GHGs emissions and (2) to target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the resulting climate benefit occurs faster and provides co-benefits to air quality and public health.

Emerging materials for lowering atmospheric carbon

DOE PAGES

Barkakaty, Balaka; Sumpter, Bobby G.; Ivanov, Ilia N.; ...

2016-12-08

CO 2 emissions from anthropogenic sources and the rate at which they increase could have deep global ramifications such as irreversible climate change and increased natural disasters. Because greater than 50% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions come from small, distributed sectors such as homes, offices, and transportation sources, most renewable energy systems and on-site carbon capture technologies for reducing future CO 2 emissions cannot be effectively utilized. This problem might be mediated by considering novel materials and technologies for directly capturing/removing CO 2 from air. But, compared to materials for capturing CO 2 at on-site emission sources, materials for capturingmore » CO 2 directly from air must be more selective to CO 2, and should operate and be stable at near ambient conditions. Here, we briefly summarize the recent developments in materials for capturing carbon dioxide directly from air. Furthermore, we discuss the challenges in this field and offer a perspective for developing the current state-of-art and also highlight the potential of a few recent discoveries in materials science that show potential for advanced application of air capture technology.« less

Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050

PubMed Central

Takeshita, Takayuki

2011-01-01

This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO2 mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them. PMID:21845172

General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

2008-12-01

The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.

Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

2012-07-14

Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of a future H2 transportation on atmospheric pollution in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popa, M. E.; Segers, A. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Krol, M. C.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Schaap, M.; Röckmann, T.

2015-07-01

Hydrogen (H2) is being explored as a fuel for passenger vehicles; it can be used in fuel cells to power electric motors or burned in internal combustion engines. In order to evaluate the potential influence of a future H2-based road transportation on the regional air quality in Europe, we implemented H2 in the atmospheric transport and chemistry model LOTOS-EUROS. We simulated the present and future (2020) air quality, using emission scenarios with different proportions of H2 vehicles and different H2 leakage rates. The reference future scenario does not include H2 vehicles, and assumes that all present and planned European regulations for emissions are fully implemented. We find that, in general, the air quality in 2020 is significantly improved compared to the current situation in all scenarios, with and without H2 cars. In the future scenario without H2 cars, the pollution is reduced due to the strict European regulations: annually averaged CO, NOx and PM2.5 over the model domain decrease by 15%, 30% and 20% respectively. The additional improvement brought by replacing 50% or 100% of traditionally-fueled vehicles by H2 vehicles is smaller in absolute terms. If 50% of vehicles are using H2, the CO, NOx and PM2.5 decrease by 1%, 10% and 1% respectively, compared to the future scenario without H2 cars. When all vehicles run on H2, then additional decreases in CO, NOx and PM2.5 are 5%, 40%, and 5% relative to the no-H2 cars future scenario. Our study shows that H2 vehicles may be an effective pathway to fulfill the strict future EU air quality regulations. O3 has a more complicated behavior - its annual average decreases in background areas, but increases in the high-NOx area in western Europe, with the decrease in NOx. A more detailed analysis shows that the population exposure to high O3 levels decreases nevertheless. In all future scenarios, traffic emissions account for only a small proportion of the total anthropogenic emissions, thus it becomes more important to better regulate emissions of non-traffic sectors. Although atmospheric H2 increases significantly in the high-leakage scenarios considered, the additional H2 added into the atmosphere does not have a significant effect on the ground level air pollution in Europe.

Spatial analysis on China's regional air pollutants and CO2 emissions: emission pattern and regional disparity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Liang; Liang, Hanwei

2014-08-01

China has suffered from serious air pollution and CO2 emission. Challenges of emission reduction policy not only come from technology advancement, but also generate from the fact that, China has pronounced disparity between regions, in geographical and socioeconomic. How to deal with regional disparity is important to achieve the reduction target effectively and efficiently. This research conducts a spatial analysis on the emission patterns of three air pollutants named SO2, NOx and PM2.5, and CO2, in China's 30 provinces, applied with spatial auto-correlation and multi regression modeling. We further analyze the regional disparity and inequity issues with the approach of Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient. Results highlight that: there is evident cluster effect for the regional air pollutants and CO2 emissions. While emission amount increases from western regions to eastern regions, the emission per GDP is in inverse trend. The Lorenz curve shows an even larger unequal distribution of GDP/emissions than GDP/capita in 30 regions. Certain middle and western regions suffers from a higher emission with lower GDP, which reveal the critical issue of emission leakage. Future policy making to address such regional disparity is critical so as to promote the emission control policy under the “equity and efficiency” principle.

A "carbonizing dragon": China's fast growing CO2 emissions revisited.

PubMed

Minx, Jan C; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Peters, Glen P; Weber, Christopher L; Guan, Dabo; Hubacek, Klaus

2011-11-01

China's annual CO(2) emissions grew by around 4 billion tonnes between 1992 and 2007. More than 70% of this increase occurred between 2002 and 2007. While growing export demand contributed more than 50% to the CO(2) emission growth between 2002 and 2005, capital investments have been responsible for 61% of emission growth in China between 2005 and 2007. We use structural decomposition analysis to identify the drivers for China's emission growth between 1992 and 2007, with special focus on the period 2002 to 2007 when growth was most rapid. In contrast to previous analysis, we find that efficiency improvements have largely offset additional CO(2) emissions from increased final consumption between 2002 and 2007. The strong increases in emissions growth between 2002 and 2007 are instead explained by structural change in China's economy, which has newly emerged as the third major emission driver. This structural change is mainly the result of capital investments, in particular, the growing prominence of construction services and their carbon intensive supply chain. By closing the model for capital investment, we can now show that the majority of emissions embodied in capital investment are utilized for domestic household and government consumption (35-49% and 19-36%, respectively) with smaller amounts for the production of exports (21-31%). Urbanization and the associated changes in lifestyle are shown to be more important than other socio-demographic drivers like the decreasing household size or growing population. We argue that mitigation efforts will depend on the future development of these key drivers, particularly capital investments which dictate future mitigation costs.

Grazing exclusion increases soil CO2 emission during the growing season in alpine meadows on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Na; Wang, Aidong; Allan Degen, A.; Deng, Bin; Shang, Zhanhuan; Ding, Luming; Long, Ruijun

2018-02-01

Soil CO2 emission is a key part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Grazing exclusion by fencing is often considered a beneficial grassland management option to restore degraded grassland, but its effect on soil CO2 emission on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau is equivocal and is the subject of this study. Using a closed static chamber, we measured diurnal soil CO2 flux weekly from July, 2008, to April, 2009, in response to grazing and grazing exclusion in the alpine meadow and alpine shrub meadow. Concomitantly, soil temperature was measured at depths of 5 cm, 10 cm, 15 cm and 20 cm with digital temperature sensors. It emerged that: 1) non-grazed grasslands emitted more soil CO2 than grazed grasslands over the growing season; 2) the alpine shrub meadow emitted more soil CO2 than the alpine meadow; the annual cumulative soil CO2 emissions of alpine meadow and alpine shrub meadow were 241.5-326.5 g C/m2 and 429.0-512.5 g C/m2, respectively; 3) seasonal patterns were evident with more soil CO2 flux in the growing than in the non-growing season; and 4) the diurnal soil CO2 flux exhibited a single peak across all sampling sites. In addition, soil CO2 flux was correlated positively with soil temperature at 5 cm, but not at the other depths. We concluded that grazing exclusion enhanced soil CO2 emission over the growing season, and decreased carbon sequestration of alpine meadow and alpine shrub meadow on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Since an increase in soil temperature increased soil CO2 flux, global warming could have an effect on soil CO2 emission in the future.

The researches on energy sustainability in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ping; Zhu, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Shuang

2018-06-01

Energy, which accounts for two-thirds of today's greenhouse gas emissions, is the key to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and slowing global warming. In this paper, the IPCC-recommended reference approach and scenario analysis were applied to evaluate dynamic change of the energy supply and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions within the period of 2000-2025 in Northern China (NC). The results show that energy importing reliance reached 85% in 2015 and the energy structure has become more diversified in NC. In addition, the per-capita CO2 emission is significantly higher while carbon intensity is lower than those of the national average. Under the LC scenario, CO2 emissions begin to fall for the first time in 2022. Hence, if Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction strategy and regional planning for NC are implemented fully, NC will achieve the national emission reduction targets in 2025 and will have a large CO2 mitigation potential in the future.

Inverse modeling of fossil fuel CO2 emissions at urban scale using OCO-2 retrievals of total column CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, X.; Lauvaux, T.; Kort, E. A.; Lin, J. C.; Oda, T.; Yang, E.; Wu, D.

2016-12-01

Rapid economic development has given rise to a steady increase of global carbon emissions, which have accumulated in the atmosphere for the past 200 years. Urbanization has concentrated about 70% of the global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions in large metropolitan areas distributed around the world, which represents the most significant anthropogenic contribution to climate change. However, highly uncertain quantifications of urban CO2 emissions are commonplace for numerous cities because of poorly-documented inventories of energy consumption. Therefore, accurate estimates of carbon emissions from global observing systems are a necessity if mitigation strategies are meant to be implemented at global scales. Space-based observations of total column averaged CO2 concentration (XCO2) provide a very promising and powerful tool to quantify urban CO2 fluxes. For the first time, measurements from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) mission are assimilated in a high resolution inverse modeling system to quantify fossil-fuel CO2 emissions of multiple cities around the globe. The Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) emission inventory is employed as a first guess, while the atmospheric transport is simulated using the WRF-Chem model at 1-km resolution. Emission detection and quantification is performed with an Ensemble Kalman Filter method. We demonstrate here the potential of the inverse approach for assimilating thousands of OCO-2 retrievals along tracks near metropolitan areas. We present the detection potential of the system with real-case applications near power plants and present inverse emissions using actual OCO-2 measurements on various urban landscapes. Finally, we will discuss the potential of OCO-2-like satellite instruments for monitoring temporal variations of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over multiple years, which can provide valuable insights for future satellite observation strategies.

China's growing CO2 emissions--a race between increasing consumption and efficiency gains.

PubMed

Peters, Glen P; Weber, Christopher L; Guan, Dabo; Hubacek, Klaus

2007-09-01

China's rapidly growing economy and energy consumption are creating serious environmental problems on both local and global scales. Understanding the key drivers behind China's growing energy consumption and the associated CO2 emissions is critical for the development of global climate policies and provides insight into how other emerging economies may develop a low emissions future. Using recently released Chinese economic input-output data and structural decomposition analysis we analyze how changes in China's technology, economic structure, urbanization, and lifestyles affect CO2 emissions. We find that infrastructure construction and urban household consumption, both in turn driven by urbanization and lifestyle changes, have outpaced efficiency improvements in the growth of CO2 emissions. Net trade had a small effect on total emissions due to equal, but significant, growth in emissions from the production of exports and emissions avoided by imports. Technology and efficiency improvements have only partially offset consumption growth, but there remains considerable untapped potential to reduce emissions by improving both production and consumption systems. As China continues to rapidly develop there is an opportunity to further implement and extend policies, such as the Circular Economy, that will help China avoid the high emissions path taken by today's developed countries.

Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Friedlingstein, Pierre; Solomon, Susan

2005-08-02

We developed a highly simplified approach to estimate the contributions of the past and present human generations to the increase of atmospheric CO(2) and associated global average temperature increases. For each human generation of adopted 25-year length, we use simplified emission test cases to estimate the committed warming passed to successive children, grandchildren, and later generations. We estimate that the last and the current generation contributed approximately two thirds of the present-day CO(2)-induced warming. Because of the long time scale required for removal of CO(2) from the atmosphere as well as the time delays characteristic of physical responses of the climate system, global mean temperatures are expected to increase by several tenths of a degree for at least the next 20 years even if CO(2) emissions were immediately cut to zero; that is, there is a commitment to additional CO(2)-induced warming even in the absence of emissions. If the rate of increase of CO(2) emissions were to continue up to 2025 and then were cut to zero, a temperature increase of approximately 1.3 degrees C compared to preindustrial conditions would still occur in 2100, whereas a constant-CO(2)-emissions scenario after 2025 would more than double the 2100 warming. These calculations illustrate the manner in which each generation inherits substantial climate change caused by CO(2) emissions that occurred previously, particularly those of their parents, and shows that current CO(2) emissions will contribute significantly to the climate change of future generations.

Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2015-09-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Effect of climate change and CO2 inhibition on isoprene emissions in Europe calculated using the ALARO-0 regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauwens, Maite; Müller, Jean-François; Stavrakou, Trisevgeni; De Cruz, Lesley; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Termonia, Piet; De Troch, Rozemien; Berckmans, Julie; Hamdi, Rafiq

2017-04-01

Isoprene is the dominant biogenic hydrocarbon emitted in the atmosphere, with global annual emissions estimated at ca. 400-600 Tg (Guenther et al. 2006). It plays a key role in the atmospheric composition because of its influence on tropospheric ozone formation in polluted environments and its contribution to particulate matter. Its emissions depend on the type and abundance of plants, and are modulated by meteorological parameters. Climate changes therefore affect the spatiotemporal and interannual variation of these emissions. In this study we estimate the isoprene fluxes emitted by vegetation in past and future climate over the European (EURO-CORDEX) domain using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014).We first calculate isoprene emissions over 1979-2012 based on the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, we compare with available isoprene flux measurements, and we investigate the sensitivity to solar radiation changes observed at European stations. The interannual variability and emission trends on regional and country level are derived and discussed. Next, we perform simulations using the output of the ALARO-0 regional climate model (Giot et al., 2015) forced by the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over 2071-2099, and compare with the historical emissions over 1976-2005 derived by the same model. Furthermore, we incorporate the inhibition of isoprene emissions to the enhanced CO2 levels of the climate projections through two different parameterizations. The future climate scenarios result in higher isoprene emissions over the European domain increased by 6%, 33% and 82% for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario respectively. However, the CO2 inhibition effect results in an overall decrease of isoprene emissions relative to the standard future simulation, even though this decrease is strongly sensitive to the parameterization used. The different CO2 inhibition simulations in this study show that future isoprene emission are between 11% lower and 26% higher than the present isoprene emissions over Europe. Giot, O. et al.: Validation of the ALARO-0 model within the EURO-CORDEX framework, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 8387-8409, 2015. Guenther, A. et al.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181-3210, 2006. Müller, J.-F. et al.: Global isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN, ECMWF analyses and a detailed canopy environmental model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1329-1341, 2008 Stavrakou, T. et al.: Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012 : impact of climate and land use changes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4587-4605, 2014.

Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part II: Air quality projections and the interplay between emissions and climate change.

PubMed

Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

2018-07-01

In Part II of this work we present the results of the downscaled offline Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model, included in the "Technology Driver Model" (TDM) approach to future U.S. air quality projections (2046-2050) compared to a current-year period (2001-2005), and the interplay between future emission and climate changes. By 2046-2050, there are widespread decreases in future concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x  = NO + NO 2 ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) due mainly to decreasing on-road vehicle (ORV) emissions near urban centers as well as decreases in other transportation modes that include non-road engines (NRE). However, there are widespread increases in daily maximum 8-hr ozone (O 3 ) across the U.S., which are due to enhanced greenhouse gases (GHG) including methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, and isolated areas of larger reduction in transportation emissions of NO x compared to that of VOCs over regions with VOC-limited O 3 chemistry. Other notable future changes are reduced haze and improved visibility, increased primary organic to elemental carbon ratio, decreases in PM 2.5 and its species, decreases and increases in dry deposition of SO 2 and O 3 , respectively, and decreases in total nitrogen (TN) deposition. There is a tendency for transportation emission and CH 4 changes to dominate the increases in O 3 , while climate change may either enhance or mitigate these increases in the west or east U.S., respectively. Climate change also decreases PM 2.5 in the future. Other variable changes exhibit stronger susceptibility to either emission (e.g., CO, NO x , and TN deposition) or climate changes (e.g., VOC, NH 3 , SO 2 , and total sulfate deposition), which also have a strong dependence on season and specific U.S. regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests.

PubMed

Moore, John R; Watt, Michael S

2015-08-01

Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Pilot Study to Evaluate California's Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Using Atmospheric Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graven, H. D.; Fischer, M. L.; Lueker, T.; Guilderson, T.; Brophy, K. J.; Keeling, R. F.; Arnold, T.; Bambha, R.; Callahan, W.; Campbell, J. E.; Cui, X.; Frankenberg, C.; Hsu, Y.; Iraci, L. T.; Jeong, S.; Kim, J.; LaFranchi, B. W.; Lehman, S.; Manning, A.; Michelsen, H. A.; Miller, J. B.; Newman, S.; Paplawsky, B.; Parazoo, N.; Sloop, C.; Walker, S.; Whelan, M.; Wunch, D.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is influenced by human activities and by natural exchanges. Studies of CO2 fluxes using atmospheric CO2 measurements typically focus on natural exchanges and assume that CO2 emissions by fossil fuel combustion and cement production are well-known from inventory estimates. However, atmospheric observation-based or "top-down" studies could potentially provide independent methods for evaluating fossil fuel CO2 emissions, in support of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change. Observation-based estimates of fossil fuel-derived CO2 may also improve estimates of biospheric CO2 exchange, which could help to characterize carbon storage and climate change mitigation by terrestrial ecosystems. We have been developing a top-down framework for estimating fossil fuel CO2 emissions in California that uses atmospheric observations and modeling. California is implementing the "Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006" to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and it has a diverse array of ecosystems that may serve as CO2 sources or sinks. We performed three month-long field campaigns in different seasons in 2014-15 to collect flask samples from a state-wide network of 10 towers. Using measurements of radiocarbon in CO2, we estimate the fossil fuel-derived CO2 present in the flask samples, relative to marine background air observed at coastal sites. Radiocarbon (14C) is not present in fossil fuel-derived CO2 because of radioactive decay over millions of years, so fossil fuel emissions cause a measurable decrease in the 14C/C ratio in atmospheric CO2. We compare the observations of fossil fuel-derived CO2 to simulations based on atmospheric modeling and published fossil fuel flux estimates, and adjust the fossil fuel flux estimates in a statistical inversion that takes account of several uncertainties. We will present the results of the top-down technique to estimate fossil fuel emissions for our field campaigns in California, and we will give an outlook for future development of the technique in California.

Integrated Dynamic Gloabal Modeling of Land Use, Energy and Economic Growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Atul Jain, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL

2009-10-14

The overall objective of this collaborative project is to integrate an existing general equilibrium energy-economic growth model with a biogeochemical cycles and biophysical models in order to more fully explore the potential contribution of land use-related activities to future emissions scenarios. Land cover and land use change activities, including deforestation, afforestation, and agriculture management, are important source of not only CO2, but also non-CO2 GHGs. Therefore, contribution of land-use emissions to total emissions of GHGs is important, and consequently their future trends are relevant to the estimation of climate change and its mitigation. This final report covers the full projectmore » period of the award, beginning May 2006, which includes a sub-contract to Brown University later transferred to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) when Co-PI Brian O'Neill changed institutional affiliations.« less

Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

2016-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Saeed, Fahad; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Wang, Xuhui; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shearer, Christine; Fofrich, Robert; Davis, Steven J.

2017-04-01

With its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves, India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions. Here, we assess proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future emissions and energy production in the country. As of mid-2016, 243 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity are under development in India, including 65 GW under construction and an additional 178 GW proposed. These under-development plants would increase the coal capacity of India's power sector by 123% and, when combined with the country's goal to produce at least 40% of its power from non-fossil sources by 2030, exceed the country's projected future electricity demand. The current proposals for new coal-fired plants could therefore either "strand" fossil energy assets (i.e., force them to retire early or else operate at very low capacity factors) and/or ensure that the goal is not met by "locking-out" new, low-carbon energy infrastructure. Similarly, future emissions from the proposed coal plants would also exceed the country's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% to 35% by 2030, which—when combined with the commitments of all other countries—is itself not yet ambitious enough to meet the international goal of holding warming well below 2°C relative to the pre-industrial era.

The Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2, version 2016 (ODIAC2016): a global monthly fossil fuel CO2 gridded emissions data product for tracer transport simulations and surface flux inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oda, Tomohiro; Maksyutov, Shamil; Andres, Robert J.

2018-01-01

The Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) is a global high-spatial-resolution gridded emissions data product that distributes carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The emissions spatial distributions are estimated at a 1 × 1 km spatial resolution over land using power plant profiles (emissions intensity and geographical location) and satellite-observed nighttime lights. This paper describes the year 2016 version of the ODIAC emissions data product (ODIAC2016) and presents analyses that help guide data users, especially for atmospheric CO2 tracer transport simulations and flux inversion analysis. Since the original publication in 2011, we have made modifications to our emissions modeling framework in order to deliver a comprehensive global gridded emissions data product. Major changes from the 2011 publication are (1) the use of emissions estimates made by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) by fuel type (solid, liquid, gas, cement manufacturing, gas flaring, and international aviation and marine bunkers); (2) the use of multiple spatial emissions proxies by fuel type such as (a) nighttime light data specific to gas flaring and (b) ship/aircraft fleet tracks; and (3) the inclusion of emissions temporal variations. Using global fuel consumption data, we extrapolated the CDIAC emissions estimates for the recent years and produced the ODIAC2016 emissions data product that covers 2000-2015. Our emissions data can be viewed as an extended version of CDIAC gridded emissions data product, which should allow data users to impose global fossil fuel emissions in a more comprehensive manner than the original CDIAC product. Our new emissions modeling framework allows us to produce future versions of the ODIAC emissions data product with a timely update. Such capability has become more significant given the CDIAC/ORNL's shutdown. The ODIAC data product could play an important role in supporting carbon cycle science, especially modeling studies with space-based CO2 data collected in near real time by ongoing carbon observing missions such as the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), and upcoming future missions. The ODIAC emissions data product including the latest version of the ODIAC emissions data (ODIAC2017, 2000-2016) is distributed from http://db.cger.nies.go.jp/dataset/ODIAC/ with a DOI (https://doi.org/10.17595/20170411.001).

Decomposition of organic carbon in fine soil particles is likely more sensitive to warming than in coarse particles: an incubation study with temperate grassland and forest soils in northern China.

PubMed

Ding, Fan; Huang, Yao; Sun, Wenjuan; Jiang, Guangfu; Chen, Yue

2014-01-01

It is widely recognized that global warming promotes soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition, and soils thus emit more CO2 into the atmosphere because of the warming; however, the response of SOC decomposition to this warming in different soil textures is unclear. This lack of knowledge limits our projection of SOC turnover and CO2 emission from soils after future warming. To investigate the CO2 emission from soils with different textures, we conducted a 107-day incubation experiment. The soils were sampled from temperate forest and grassland in northern China. The incubation was conducted over three short-term cycles of changing temperature from 5°C to 30°C, with an interval of 5°C. Our results indicated that CO2 emissions from sand (>50 µm), silt (2-50 µm), and clay (<2 µm) particles increased exponentially with increasing temperature. The sand fractions emitted more CO2 (CO2-C per unit fraction-C) than the silt and clay fractions in both forest and grassland soils. The temperature sensitivity of the CO2 emission from soil particles, which is expressed as Q10, decreased in the order clay>silt>sand. Our study also found that nitrogen availability in the soil facilitated the temperature dependence of SOC decomposition. A further analysis of the incubation data indicated a power-law decrease of Q10 with increasing temperature. Our results suggested that the decomposition of organic carbon in fine-textured soils that are rich in clay or silt could be more sensitive to warming than those in coarse sandy soils and that SOC might be more vulnerable in boreal and temperate regions than in subtropical and tropical regions under future warming.

Considerable contribution of the Montreal Protocol to declining greenhouse gas emissions from the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Lei; Montzka, Stephen A.; Lehman, Scott J.; Godwin, David S.; Miller, Benjamin R.; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Thoning, Kirk; Miller, John B.; Sweeney, Colm; Siso, Caroline; Elkins, James W.; Hall, Bradley D.; Mondeel, Debra J.; Nance, David; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Mountain, Marikate; Fischer, Marc L.; Biraud, Sébastien C.; Chen, Huilin; Tans, Pieter P.

2017-08-01

Ozone depleting substances (ODSs) controlled by the Montreal Protocol are potent greenhouse gases (GHGs), as are their substitutes, the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive estimate of U.S. emissions of ODSs and HFCs based on precise measurements in discrete air samples from across North America and in the remote atmosphere. Derived emissions show spatial and seasonal variations qualitatively consistent with known uses and largely confirm U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) national emissions inventories for most gases. The measurement-based results further indicate a substantial decline of ODS emissions from 2008 to 2014, equivalent to 50% of the CO2-equivalent decline in combined emissions of CO2 and all other long-lived GHGs inventoried by the EPA for the same period. Total estimated CO2-equivalent emissions of HFCs were comparable to the sum of ODS emissions in 2014, but can be expected to decline in the future in response to recent policy measures.

Scrutinizing the carbon cycle and CO2 residence time in the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harde, Hermann

2017-05-01

Climate scientists presume that the carbon cycle has come out of balance due to the increasing anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion and land use change. This is made responsible for the rapidly increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over recent years, and it is estimated that the removal of the additional emissions from the atmosphere will take a few hundred thousand years. Since this goes along with an increasing greenhouse effect and a further global warming, a better understanding of the carbon cycle is of great importance for all future climate change predictions. We have critically scrutinized this cycle and present an alternative concept, for which the uptake of CO2 by natural sinks scales proportional with the CO2 concentration. In addition, we consider temperature dependent natural emission and absorption rates, by which the paleoclimatic CO2 variations and the actual CO2 growth rate can well be explained. The anthropogenic contribution to the actual CO2 concentration is found to be 4.3%, its fraction to the CO2 increase over the Industrial Era is 15% and the average residence time 4 years.

Gross primary production controls the subsequent winter CO2 exchange in a boreal peatland.

PubMed

Zhao, Junbin; Peichl, Matthias; Öquist, Mats; Nilsson, Mats B

2016-12-01

In high-latitude regions, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions during the winter represent an important component of the annual ecosystem carbon budget; however, the mechanisms that control the winter CO 2 emissions are currently not well understood. It has been suggested that substrate availability from soil labile carbon pools is a main driver of winter CO 2 emissions. In ecosystems that are dominated by annual herbaceous plants, much of the biomass produced during the summer is likely to contribute to the soil labile carbon pool through litter fall and root senescence in the autumn. Thus, the summer carbon uptake in the ecosystem may have a significant influence on the subsequent winter CO 2 emissions. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a plot-scale shading experiment in a boreal peatland to reduce the gross primary production (GPP) during the growing season. At the growing season peak, vascular plant biomass in the shaded plots was half that in the control plots. During the subsequent winter, the mean CO 2 emission rates were 21% lower in the shaded plots than in the control plots. In addition, long-term (2001-2012) eddy covariance data from the same site showed a strong correlation between the GPP (particularly the late summer and autumn GPP) and the subsequent winter net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE). In contrast, abiotic factors during the winter could not explain the interannual variation in the cumulative winter NEE. Our study demonstrates the presence of a cross-seasonal link between the growing season biotic processes and winter CO 2 emissions, which has important implications for predicting winter CO 2 emission dynamics in response to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario

PubMed Central

Dove, Sophie G.; Kline, David I.; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E.; Tyson, Gene W.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2013-01-01

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

PubMed

Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2013-09-17

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an expandable green alternative to crude oil use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, Deepak; de Souza, Amanda P.; Larsen, Søren; Lebauer, David S.; Miguez, Fernando E.; Sparovek, Gerd; Bollero, Germán; Buckeridge, Marcos S.; Long, Stephen P.

2017-11-01

Reduction of CO2 emissions will require a transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources. Expansion of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol provides one near-term scalable solution to reduce CO2 emissions from the global transport sector. In contrast to corn ethanol, the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol system may offset 86% of CO2 emissions compared to oil use, and emissions resulting from land-use change to sugarcane are paid back in just 2-8 years. But, it has been uncertain how much further expansion is possible given increasing demand for food and animal feed, climate change impacts and protection of natural ecosystems. We show that Brazilian sugarcane ethanol can provide the equivalent of 3.63-12.77 Mb d-1 of crude oil by 2045 under projected climate change while protecting forests under conservation and accounting for future land demand for food and animal feed production. The corresponding range of CO2 offsets is 0.55-2.0 Gigatons yr-1. This would displace 3.8-13.7% of crude oil consumption and 1.5-5.6% of net CO2 emission globally relative to data for 2014.

Diffusive emission of methane and carbon dioxide from two hydropower reservoirs in Brazil.

PubMed

Marcelino, A A; Santos, M A; Xavier, V L; Bezerra, C S; Silva, C R O; Amorim, M A; Rodrigues, R P; Rogerio, J P

2015-05-01

The role of greenhouse gas emissions from freshwater reservoirs and their contribution to increase greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere is currently under discussion in many parts of the world. We studied CO2 and CH4 diffusive fluxes from two large neotropical hydropower reservoirs with different climate conditions. We used floating closed-chambers to estimate diffusive fluxes of these gaseous species. Sampling campaigns showed that the reservoirs studied were sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. In the Serra da Mesa Reservoir, the CH4 emissions ranged from 0.530 to 396.96 mg.m(-2).d(-1) and CO2 emissions ranged from -1,738.33 to 11,166.61 mg.m(-2).d(-1) and in Três Marias Reservoir the CH4 fluxes ranged 0.720 to 2,578.03 mg.m(-2).d(-1) and CO2 emission ranged from -3,037.80 to 11,516.64 to mg.m(-2).d(-1). There were no statistically significant differences of CH4 fluxes between the reservoirs, but CO2 fluxes from the two reservoirs studied were significantly different. The CO2 emissions measured over the periods studied in Serra da Mesa showed some seasonality with distinctions between the wet and dry transition season. In Três Marias Reservoir the CO2 fluxes showed no seasonal variability. In both reservoirs, CH4 emissions showed a tendency to increase during the study periods but this was not statistically significant. These results contributed to increase knowledge about the magnitude of CO2 and CH4 emission in hydroelectric reservoirs, however due to natural variability of the data future sampling campaigns will be needed to better elucidate the seasonal influences on the fluxes of greenhouse gases.

CO2 dynamics of tundra ponds in the low-Arctic, Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buell, Mary-Claire

Extensive research has gone into measuring changes to the carbon storage capacity of Arctic terrestrial environments as well as large water bodies in order to determine a carbon budget for many regions across the Arctic. Inland Arctic waters such as small lakes and ponds are often excluded from these carbon budgets, however a handful of studies have demonstrated that they can often be significant sources of carbon to the atmosphere. This study investigated the CO2 cycling of tundra ponds in the Daring Lake area, Northwest Territories, Canada (64°52'N, 111°35'W), to determine the role ponds have in the local carbon cycle. Floating chambers, nondispersive infrared (NDIR) sensors and headspace samples were used to estimate carbon fluxes from four selected local ponds. Multiple environmental, chemical and meteorological parameters were also monitored for the duration of the study, which took place during the snow free season of 2013. Average CO2 emissions for the two-month growing season ranged from approximately -0.0035 g CO2-C m-2 d -1 to 0.12 g CO2-C m-2 d-1. The losses of CO2 from the water bodies in the Daring Lake area were approximately 2-7% of the CO2 uptake over vegetated terrestrial tundra during the same two-month period. Results from this study indicated that the production of CO2 in tundra ponds was positively influenced by both increases in air temperature, and the delivery of carbon from their catchments. The relationship found between temperature and carbon emissions suggests that warming Arctic temperatures have the potential to increase carbon emissions from ponds in the future. The findings in this study did not include ebullition gas emissions nor plant mediated transport, therefore these findings are likely underestimates of the total carbon emissions from water bodies in the Daring Lake area. This study emphasizes the need for more research on inland waters in order to improve our understanding of the total impact these waters may have on the Arctic's atmospheric CO2 concentrations now and in the future.

Industrial point source CO2 emission strength estimation with aircraft measurements and dispersion modelling.

PubMed

Carotenuto, Federico; Gualtieri, Giovanni; Miglietta, Franco; Riccio, Angelo; Toscano, Piero; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Gioli, Beniamino

2018-02-22

CO 2 remains the greenhouse gas that contributes most to anthropogenic global warming, and the evaluation of its emissions is of major interest to both research and regulatory purposes. Emission inventories generally provide quite reliable estimates of CO 2 emissions. However, because of intrinsic uncertainties associated with these estimates, it is of great importance to validate emission inventories against independent estimates. This paper describes an integrated approach combining aircraft measurements and a puff dispersion modelling framework by considering a CO 2 industrial point source, located in Biganos, France. CO 2 density measurements were obtained by applying the mass balance method, while CO 2 emission estimates were derived by implementing the CALMET/CALPUFF model chain. For the latter, three meteorological initializations were used: (i) WRF-modelled outputs initialized by ECMWF reanalyses; (ii) WRF-modelled outputs initialized by CFSR reanalyses and (iii) local in situ observations. Governmental inventorial data were used as reference for all applications. The strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and how they affect emission estimation uncertainty were investigated. The mass balance based on aircraft measurements was quite succesful in capturing the point source emission strength (at worst with a 16% bias), while the accuracy of the dispersion modelling, markedly when using ECMWF initialization through the WRF model, was only slightly lower (estimation with an 18% bias). The analysis will help in highlighting some methodological best practices that can be used as guidelines for future experiments.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 reduces metabolic and physiological differences between isoprene- and non-isoprene-emitting poplars.

PubMed

Way, Danielle A; Ghirardo, Andrea; Kanawati, Basem; Esperschütz, Jürgen; Monson, Russell K; Jackson, Robert B; Schmitt-Kopplin, Philippe; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

2013-10-01

Isoprene, a volatile organic compound produced by some plant species, enhances abiotic stress tolerance under current atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but its biosynthesis is negatively correlated with CO2 concentrations. We hypothesized that losing the capacity to produce isoprene would require stronger up-regulation of other stress tolerance mechanisms at low CO2 than at higher CO2 concentrations. We compared metabolite profiles and physiological performance in poplars (Populus × canescens) with either wild-type or RNAi-suppressed isoprene emission capacity grown at pre-industrial low, current atmospheric, and future high CO2 concentrations (190, 390 and 590 ppm CO2 , respectively). Suppression of isoprene biosynthesis led to significant rearrangement of the leaf metabolome, increasing stress tolerance responses such as xanthophyll cycle pigment de-epoxidation and antioxidant levels, as well as altering lipid, carbon and nitrogen metabolism. Metabolic and physiological differences between isoprene-emitting and suppressed lines diminished as growth CO2 concentrations rose. The CO2 dependence of our results indicates that the effects of isoprene biosynthesis are strongest at pre-industrial CO2 concentrations. Rising CO2 may reduce the beneficial effects of biogenic isoprene emission, with implications for species competition. This has potential consequences for future climate warming, as isoprene emitted from vegetation has strong effects on global atmospheric chemistry. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Environment degradation, economic growth and energy consumption nexus: A wavelet-windowed cross correlation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker

2015-10-01

This paper analyzes the interactive linkages between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption (EC) and economic growth (EG) using a novel approach namely wavelet windowed cross correlation (WWCC) for six oil-exporting countries from the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) region over the period 1980-2012. Our empirical results show that there exists a bidirectional causal relationship between EC and EG. However, the results support the occurrence of unidirectional causality from EC to CO2 emissions without any feedback effects, and there exists a bidirectional causal relationship between EG and CO2 emissions for the region as a whole. The study suggests that environmental and energy policies should recognize the differences in the nexus between EC and EG in order to maintain sustainable EG in the GCC region. Our findings will be useful for GCC countries to better evaluate its situation in the future climate negotiations. The overall findings will help GCC countries assess its position better in future climate change negotiations.

Defining the `negative emission' capacity of global agriculture deployed for enhanced rock weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beerling, D. J.; Taylor, L.; Banwart, S. A.; Kantzas, E. P.; Lomas, M.; Mueller, C.; Ridgwell, A.; Quegan, S.

2016-12-01

Enhanced rock weathering involves application of crushed silicates (e.g. basalt) to the landscape to accelerate their chemical breakdown to release base cations and form bicarbonate that ultimate sequester CO2 in the oceans. Global croplands cover an area of 12 million km2 and might be deployed for long-term removal of anthropogenic CO2 through enhanced rock weathering with a number of co-benefits for food security. This presentation assesses the potential of this strategy to contribute to `negative emissions' as defined by a suite of simulations coupling a detailed model of rock grain weathering by crop root-microbial processes with a managed land dynamic global vegetation model driven by the `business as usual' future climate change scenarios. We calculate potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown over the next century by introducing a strengthened C-sink term into the global carbon cycle model within an intermediate complexity Earth system model. Our simulations indicate agricultural lands deployed in this way constitute a `low tech' biological negative emissions strategy. As part of a wider portfolio of options, this strategy might contribute to limiting future warming to 2oC, subject to economic costs and energy requirements.

A comparison of top-down and bottom-up carbon dioxide fluxes in the UK using a multi-platform measurement network.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Emily; Rigby, Matt; O'Doherty, Simon; Stavert, Ann; Lunt, Mark; Nemitz, Eiko; Helfter, Carole; Allen, Grant; Pitt, Joe; Bauguitte, Stéphane; Levy, Pete; van Oijen, Marcel; Williams, Mat; Smallman, Luke; Palmer, Paul

2016-04-01

Having a comprehensive understanding, on a countrywide scale, of both biogenic and anthropogenic CO2 emissions is essential for knowing how best to reduce anthropogenic emissions and for understanding how the terrestrial biosphere is responding to global fossil fuel emissions. Whilst anthropogenic CO2 flux estimates are fairly well constrained, fluxes from biogenic sources are not. This work will help to verify existing anthropogenic emissions inventories and give a better understanding of biosphere - atmosphere CO2 exchange. Using an innovative top-down inversion scheme; a hierarchical Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with reversible jump "trans-dimensional" basis function selection, we aim to find emissions estimates for biogenic and anthropogenic sources simultaneously. Our approach allows flux uncertainties to be derived more comprehensively than previous methods, and allows the resolved spatial scales in the solution to be determined using the data. We use atmospheric CO2 mole fraction data from the UK Deriving Emissions related to Climate Change (DECC) and Greenhouse gAs UK and Global Emissions (GAUGE) projects. The network comprises of 6 tall tower sites, flight campaigns and a ferry transect along the east coast, and enables us to derive high-resolution monthly flux estimates across the UK and Ireland for the period 2013-2015. We have derived UK total fluxes of 675 PIC 78 Tg/yr during January 2014 (seasonal maximum) and 23 PIC 96 Tg/yr during May 2014 (seasonal minimum). Our disaggregated anthropogenic and biogenic flux estimates are compared to a new high-resolution time resolved anthropogenic inventory that will underpin future UNFCCC reports by the UK, and to DALEC carbon cycle model. This allows us to identify where significant differences exist between these "bottom-up" and "top-down" flux estimates and suggest reasons for discrepancies. We will highlight the strengths and limitations of the UK's CO2 emissions verification infrastructure at present and outline improvements that could be made in the future.

Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

2005-09-01

In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model studies of the effects of these emissions on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on climate. The developed scenarios are suitable for use as input for chemical transport models (CTMs) and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs).

Nitrous Oxide Emissions in a Managed Grassland are Strongly Influenced by CO2 Concentrations Across a Range of Soil Moisture Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Z. A.; Hovenden, M. J.; Hunt, M.

2017-12-01

Though the atmosphere contains less nitrous oxide (N2O, 324 ppb) than carbon dioxide (CO2, 400 ppm­), N2O has 298 times the global warming potential of CO2 on a 100-year horizon. Nitrous oxide emissions tend to be greater in moist soils because denitrification is an anaerobic process. The rising concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reduces plant stomatal aperture, thereby slowing transpiration and water use and leading to higher soil moisture levels. Thus, the rising CO2 concentration could stimulate N2O emissions indirectly via increasing soil moisture. Further, results from field experiments in which CO2 is elevated have demonstrated nitrification is accelerated at elevated CO2 concentrations (eCO2). Hence, N2O emissions could be substantially increased by the impacts of rising CO2 concentrations on plant and ecosystem physiology. However, the scale of this impact could be influenced by the amount of water supplied through irrigation or rainfall since both nitrification and denitrification are sensitive to soil moisture. Here, we use measurements of CO2 and N2O emissions from the TasFACE2 experiment to explore the ways in which the impact of CO2 concentration on greenhouse gas emissions is influenced by water supply in a managed temperate pasture. TasFACE2 is the world's only experiment that explicitly controls soil water availability at three different CO2 concentrations. Application of chemical nitrification inhibitor severely reduces N2O flux from soils regardless of CO2 level, water treatment and time following urea application. This inhibitor reduced soil respiration in plots exposed to ambient CO2 plots but not in eCO2 plots. N2O flux is stimulated by eCO2 but not consistently among watering treatments or seasons. Soil respiration is strongly enhanced by CO2 effect regardless of watering treatment. The results demonstrate that CO2 concentration has a sustained impact on CO2 and N2O flux across a range of water availabilities in this fertilised, ryegrass pasture. Thus, the impacts of rising CO2 concentrations on greenhouse gas emissions are not dependent upon soil water availability, with substantial impacts occurring even in drier soils. Thus, the impact of CO2 concentration on emissions might be stronger than has been believed to this point, with major ramifications for future climate.

The Extent to Which Different 100% Clean, Renewable Energy Transition Scenarios can Reduce World Carbon Dioxide Levels to 350-400 ppmv by 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, M. Z.; Byrne, J. M.

2016-12-01

Future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on CO2's natural and anthropogenic emission rates and its removal rates by primarily water dissolution, photosysnthesis, and weathering. We compare modeled past CO2 from 1750 to 2015 with data then model projected future changes in CO2 under different energy emission scenarios, including two where 100% of the world's all-purpose energy (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, and agriculture/forestry/fishing) is electrified, and the electricity is powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The scenarios are derived from country-by-country energy roadmaps found at http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html. In one 100% scenario, 80% of the conversion is assumed to occur by 2030 and 100%, by 2050. In the second, 80% is assumed to occur by 2050, and the rest by 2100. We also compare with an unrealistic but best-case 100% conversion scenario starting in 2015 and IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, B1, B2, and A1F1. Results will be shown, and conclusions, drawn about the practicality of reducing CO2 to 350-400 ppmv by 2100. These results have significant impact on current and future energy policy.

Experimental evaluation of main emissions during coal processing waste combustion.

PubMed

Dmitrienko, Margarita A; Legros, Jean C; Strizhak, Pavel A

2018-02-01

The total volume of the coal processing wastes (filter cakes) produced by Russia, China, and India is as high as dozens of millions of tons per year. The concentrations of CO and CO 2 in the emissions from the combustion of filter cakes have been measured directly for the first time. They are the biggest volume of coal processing wastes. There have been many discussions about using these wastes as primary or secondary components of coal-water slurries (CWS) and coal-water slurries containing petrochemicals (CWSP). Boilers have already been operationally tested in Russia for the combustion of CWSP based on filter cakes. In this work, the concentrations of hazardous emissions have been measured at temperatures ranging from 500 to 1000°С. The produced CO and CO 2 concentrations are shown to be practically constant at high temperatures (over 900°С) for all the coal processing wastes under study. Experiments have shown the feasibility to lowering the combustion temperatures of coal processing wastes down to 750-850°С. This provides sustainable combustion and reduces the CO and CO 2 emissions 1.2-1.7 times. These relatively low temperatures ensure satisfactory environmental and energy performance of combustion. Using CWS and CWSP instead of conventional solid fuels significantly reduces NO x and SO x emissions but leaves CO and CO 2 emissions practically at the same level as coal powder combustion. Therefore, the environmentally friendly future (in terms of all the main atmospheric emissions: CO, CO 2 , NO x , and SO x ) of both CWS and CWSP technologies relies on low-temperature combustion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction in achieving the Paris Agreement's objective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hienola, Anca; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; O'Donnell, Declan; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Korhonen, Hannele; Laaksonen, Ari

2017-04-01

The Paris agreement reached in December 2015 under the auspices of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims at holding the global temperature increase to well below 2◦C above preindustrial levels and "to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5◦C above preindustrial levels". Limiting warming to any level implies that the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the dominant driver of long-term temperatures - that can ever be emitted into the atmosphere is finite. Essentially, this means that global CO2 emissions need to become net zero. CO2 is not the only pollutant causing warming, although it is the most persistent. Short-lived, non-CO2 climate forcers also must also be considered. Whereas much effort has been put into defining a threshold for temperature increase and zero net carbon emissions, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the non-CO2 climate forcers, including not just the non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halocarbons etc.) but also the anthropogenic aerosols like black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulfate. This study investigates the possibility of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5◦C by the end of the century under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions simulated with the very simplistic MAGICC climate carbon cycle model as well as with ECHAM6.1-HAM2.2-SALSA + UVic ESCM. The simulations include two different CO2 scenarios- RCP3PD as control and a CO2 reduction leading to 1.5◦C (which translates into reaching the net zero CO2 emissions by mid 2040s followed by negative emissions by the end of the century); each CO2 scenario includes also two aerosol pollution control cases denoted with CLE (current legislation) and MFR (maximum feasible reduction). The main result of the above scenarios is that the stronger the anthropogenic aerosol emission reduction is, the more significant the temperature increase by 2100 relative to pre-industrial temperature will be, making the 1.5◦C temperature goal impossible to reach. Although the global reduction of anthropogenic aerosols can greatly enforce the global warming effect due to GHGs, all our simulations resulted in temperature increase bellow (but not well bellow) 2◦C above preindustrial levels - a slightly more realistic target compared to 1.5◦C. The results of this study are based on simulations of only two climate models. As such, we do not regard these results as indisputable, but we consider that aerosols and their effect on climate deserve more attention when discussing future aerosol emission.

Spectral distortion of the CMB by the cumulative CO emission from galaxies throughout cosmic history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mashian, Natalie; Loeb, Abraham; Sternberg, Amiel

2016-05-01

We show that the cumulative CO emission from galaxies throughout cosmic history distorts the spectrum of the cosmic microwave background at a level that is well above the detection limit of future instruments, such as the Primordial Inflation Explorer. The modelled CO signal has a prominent bump in the frequency interval 100-200 GHz, with a characteristic peak intensity of ˜2 × 10-23 W m-2 Hz-1 sr-1. Most of the CO foreground originates from modest redshifts, z ˜ 2-5, and needs to be efficiently removed for more subtle distortions from the earlier Universe to be detected.

An approach for verifying biogenic greenhouse gas emissions inventories with atmospheric CO 2 concentration data

DOE PAGES

Ogle, Stephen; Davis, Kenneth J.; Lauvaux, Thomas; ...

2015-03-10

Verifying national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventories is a critical step to ensure that reported emissions data to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are accurate and representative of a country’s contribution to GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Verification could include a variety of evidence, but arguably the most convincing verification would be confirmation of a change in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere that is consistent with reported emissions to the UNFCCC. We report here on a case study evaluating this option based on a prototype atmospheric CO2 measurement network deployed in the Mid-Continent Region of themore » conterminous United States. We found that the atmospheric CO2 measurement data did verify the accuracy of the emissions inventory within the confidence limits of the emissions estimates, suggesting that this technology could be further developed and deployed more widely in the future for verifying reported emissions.« less

How Well Do We Know the Future of CO2 Emissions? Projecting Fleet Emissions from Light Duty Vehicle Technology Drivers.

PubMed

Martin, Niall P D; Bishop, Justin D K; Boies, Adam M

2017-03-07

While the UK has committed to reduce CO 2 emissions to 80% of 1990 levels by 2050, transport accounts for nearly a fourth of all emissions and the degree to which decarbonization can occur is highly uncertain. We present a new methodology using vehicle and powertrain parameters within a Bayesian framework to determine the impact of engineering vehicle improvements on fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions. Our results show how design changes in vehicle parameters (e.g., mass, engine size, and compression ratio) result in fuel consumption improvements from a fleet-wide mean of 5.6 L/100 km in 2014 to 3.0 L/100 km by 2030. The change in vehicle efficiency coupled with increases in vehicle numbers and fleet-wide activity result in a total fleet-wide reduction of 41 ± 10% in 2030, relative to 2012. Concerted internal combustion engine improvements result in a 48 ± 10% reduction of CO 2 emissions, while efforts to increase the number of diesel vehicles within the fleet had little additional effect. Increasing plug-in and all-electric vehicles reduced CO 2 emissions by less (42 ± 10% reduction) than concerted internal combustion engines improvements. However, if the grid decarbonizes, electric vehicles reduce emissions by 45 ± 9% with further reduction potential to 2050.

Spatial and Temporal Correlates of Greenhouse Gas Diffusion from a Hydropower Reservoir in the Southern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mosher, Jennifer; Fortner, Allison M.; Phillips, Jana Randolph

Emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 from freshwater reservoirs constitute a globally significant source of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), but knowledge gaps remain with regard to spatiotemporal drivers of emissions. We document the spatial and seasonal variation in surface diffusion of CO 2 and CH 4 from Douglas Lake, a hydropower reservoir in Tennessee, USA. Monthly estimates across 13 reservoir sites from January to November 2010 indicated that surface diffusions ranged from 236 to 18,806 mg m -2 day -1 for CO 2 and 0 to 0.95 mg m -2 day -1 for CH 4. Next, we developed statisticalmore » models using spatial and physicochemical variables to predict surface diffusions of CO 2 and CH 4. Models explained 22.7 and 20.9% of the variation in CO 2 and CH4 diffusions, respectively, and identified pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and Julian day as the most informative important predictors. These findings provide baseline estimates of GHG emissions from a reservoir in eastern temperate North America a region for which estimates of reservoir GHGs emissions are limited. Our statistical models effectively characterized non-linear and threshold relationships between physicochemical predictors and GHG emissions. Further refinement of such models will aid in predicting current GHG emissions in unsampled reservoirs and forecasting future GHG emissions.« less

Spatial and Temporal Correlates of Greenhouse Gas Diffusion from a Hydropower Reservoir in the Southern United States

DOE PAGES

Mosher, Jennifer; Fortner, Allison M.; Phillips, Jana Randolph; ...

2015-10-29

Emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 from freshwater reservoirs constitute a globally significant source of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), but knowledge gaps remain with regard to spatiotemporal drivers of emissions. We document the spatial and seasonal variation in surface diffusion of CO 2 and CH 4 from Douglas Lake, a hydropower reservoir in Tennessee, USA. Monthly estimates across 13 reservoir sites from January to November 2010 indicated that surface diffusions ranged from 236 to 18,806 mg m -2 day -1 for CO 2 and 0 to 0.95 mg m -2 day -1 for CH 4. Next, we developed statisticalmore » models using spatial and physicochemical variables to predict surface diffusions of CO 2 and CH 4. Models explained 22.7 and 20.9% of the variation in CO 2 and CH4 diffusions, respectively, and identified pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and Julian day as the most informative important predictors. These findings provide baseline estimates of GHG emissions from a reservoir in eastern temperate North America a region for which estimates of reservoir GHGs emissions are limited. Our statistical models effectively characterized non-linear and threshold relationships between physicochemical predictors and GHG emissions. Further refinement of such models will aid in predicting current GHG emissions in unsampled reservoirs and forecasting future GHG emissions.« less

Inland waters and their role in the carbon cycle of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stackpoole, Sarah M.; Butman, David E.; Clow, David W.; Verdin, Kristine L.; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Genet, Hélène; Striegl, Robert G.

2017-01-01

The magnitude of Alaska (AK) inland waters carbon (C) fluxes is likely to change in the future due to amplified climate warming impacts on the hydrology and biogeochemical processes in high latitude regions. Although current estimates of major aquatic C fluxes represent an essential baseline against which future change can be compared, a comprehensive assessment for AK has not yet been completed. To address this gap, we combined available data sets and applied consistent methodologies to estimate river lateral C export to the coast, river and lake carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions, and C burial in lakes for the six major hydrologic regions in the state. Estimated total aquatic C flux for AK was 41 Tg C/yr. Major components of this total flux, in Tg C/yr, were 18 for river lateral export, 17 for river CO2 emissions, and 8 for lake CO2 emissions. Lake C burial offset these fluxes by 2 Tg C/yr. River and lake CH4 emissions were 0.03 and 0.10 Tg C/yr, respectively. The Southeast and South central regions had the highest temperature, precipitation, terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), and C yields (fluxes normalized to land area) were 77 and 42 g C·m−2·yr−1, respectively. Lake CO2 emissions represented over half of the total aquatic flux from the Southwest (37 g C·m−2·yr−1). The North Slope, Northwest, and Yukon regions had lesser yields (11, 15, and 17 g C·m2·yr−1), but these estimates may be the most vulnerable to future climate change, because of the heightened sensitivity of arctic and boreal ecosystems to intensified warming. Total aquatic C yield for AK was 27 g C·m−2·yr−1, which represented 16% of the estimated terrestrial NPP. Freshwater ecosystems represent a significant conduit for C loss, and a more comprehensive view of land-water-atmosphere interactions is necessary to predict future climate change impacts on the Alaskan ecosystem C balance.

When will we be committed to crossing 1.5 and 2 °C temperature thresholds?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Proistosescu, C.; Roe, G.; Huybers, P. J.

2017-12-01

The zero-emissions climate commitment is a key metric for science and policy. It is the future warming we face given only to-date emissions, independent of future human influence on climate. Following a cessation of emissions, future global temperature change depends on (i) the atmospheric lifetimes of aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), and (ii) the physical climate response to radiative forcing (Armour and Roe 2011). The cooling effect of aerosols diminishes within weeks; GHG concentrations get drawn down on timescales ranging from months to millennia; and ocean heat uptake diminishes as climate equilibrates with the residual CO2 forcing. Whether global temperature increases, stays stable, or declines following emission cessation depends on these competing factors. There is substantial uncertainty in the zero-emissions commitment due to a combination of (i) correlated uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, (ii) uncertainty in the atmospheric lifetime of CO2, and (iii) uncertainty in how climate sensitivity will evolve in the future. Here we quantify climate commitment in a Bayesian framework of an idealized model constrained by observations of global warming and energy imbalance, combined with estimates of global radiative forcing. At present, our committed warming is 1.2°C (median), with a 25% chance that it already exceeds 1.5°C and a 5% chance that it exceeds 2°C; the range comes primarily from uncertainty in the degree to which aerosols currently mask GHG forcing. We further quantify how climate commitment, and its uncertainty, changes with emissions scenario and over time. Under high emissions (RCP8.5), we will reach a >50% risk of a 2°C zero-emission climate commitment by the year 2035, about two decades before that temperature would be reached if emissions continued unabated. Committed warming is substantially reduced for lower-emissions scenarios, depending on the mix of aerosol and GHG mitigation. For the next few decades the primary uncertainty in climate commitment comes from correlated uncertainties in aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity; later in the century it comes from uncertainties in the carbon cycle (setting the lifetime and residual concentration of CO2) and in how climate sensitivity changes over time.

Understanding the Effectiveness of Carbon Dioxide Removal to Reduce the Impacts of Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, V.; Tett, S. F.; Brander, M.

2017-12-01

The current Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement suggest exceeding the emissions budgets corresponding to the below 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets. To address this the future application of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is proposed to recapture excess emissions at a later time, so keeping the total net emissions within budget. This assumes that the climate change impact of CO2 emitted now can be fully compensated by a matched CO2 removal in the future. However, the impacts from this pathway of emissions budget overshoot and subsequent recapture may differ from those resulting from a pathway where emissions are held within budget with no temporary overshoot. These pathway dependent impacts could give rise to different climatic and societal futures despite the total net emissions being the same. Using a low resolution fully coupled Earth System Model with an interactive carbon cycle, we present an investigation into the pathway dependence of climate change impacts and how these relate to the scale and duration of the emissions budget overshoot and subsequent recapture. From this we discuss the effectiveness of CDR in avoiding climate change impacts relative to more immediate emissions reductions. We consider how this relative effectiveness might be reflected in GHG accounting methods and national GHG accounts, and explore the implications for Article 2 of the Paris Agreement, where holding temperatures to the targets is recognised to "significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change".

Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bristow, Mila; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Beringer, Jason; Livesley, Stephen J.; Edwards, Andrew C.; Arndt, Stefan K.

2016-11-01

The clearing and burning of tropical savanna leads to globally significant emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs); however there is large uncertainty relating to the magnitude of this flux. Australia's tropical savannas occupy the northern quarter of the continent, a region of increasing interest for further exploitation of land and water resources. Land use decisions across this vast biome have the potential to influence the national greenhouse gas budget. To better quantify emissions from savanna deforestation and investigate the impact of deforestation on national GHG emissions, we undertook a paired site measurement campaign where emissions were quantified from two tropical savanna woodland sites; one that was deforested and prepared for agricultural land use and a second analogue site that remained uncleared for the duration of a 22-month campaign. At both sites, net ecosystem exchange of CO2 was measured using the eddy covariance method. Observations at the deforested site were continuous before, during and after the clearing event, providing high-resolution data that tracked CO2 emissions through nine phases of land use change. At the deforested site, post-clearing debris was allowed to cure for 6 months and was subsequently burnt, followed by extensive soil preparation for cropping. During the debris burning, fluxes of CO2 as measured by the eddy covariance tower were excluded. For this phase, emissions were estimated by quantifying on-site biomass prior to deforestation and applying savanna-specific emission factors to estimate a fire-derived GHG emission that included both CO2 and non-CO2 gases. The total fuel mass that was consumed during the debris burning was 40.9 Mg C ha-1 and included above- and below-ground woody biomass, course woody debris, twigs, leaf litter and C4 grass fuels. Emissions from the burning were added to the net CO2 fluxes as measured by the eddy covariance tower for other post-deforestation phases to provide a total GHG emission from this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha-1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha-1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission) and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %). Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was a net carbon sink of -2.1 Mg C ha-1, or -7.7 Mg CO2-e ha-1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1) provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2) compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only) savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use decision making processes associated with land and water resource development.

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

The role of coal technology in redefining India’s climate change agents and other pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahu, S. K.; Ohara, T.; Beig, G.

2017-10-01

It is well established that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most prominent agent of climate change. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere has been increasing persistently over the last few decades due to rising dependence on fossil fuels for energy production. India is facing a potential energy crisis. India has large coal reserves and coal is currently the linchpin of the Indian power sector, making Indian coal-derived emissions a focus of global attention. Further, India’s journey from a challenging energy security situation to the ‘Make in India’ initiative is expected to drive energy needs exponentially. Thus, in the context of a rapidly changing climate, it has become imperative to quantify the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from emerging coal-based energy plants in India. The present work attempts not only to do this, with the intention of highlighting India’s commitment to reducing CO2 emissions, but also to redefine India’s future emissions. We draw attention to India’s attempt to transform the coal technology used in coal-based thermal power plants. We have tried to adopt a holistic approach to quantify the past (2010), present (2015) and future (2025) emission trends for important GHGs like CO2 and other critical air pollutants from rapidly penetrating low-emission advanced coal technology. Our estimation shows that CO2 emissions will increase from 1065 Tg yr-1 (2015) to 2634 Tg yr-1 (2025), which is approximately 147% of the current value. This rapid increase is largely attributed to rising energy demand due to industrial development, followed by demand from the domestic and agricultural sectors. The present trend of CO2 emissions is sure to propel India to become world’s second largest emitter of GHGs in 2025, dislodging the United States. We have also estimated the emission of other pollutants like NOx, SO2, black carbon, organic carbon, particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), volatile organic compounds and CO. Our findings seem to suggest that India will able to cut CO2 emission from the traditionally dominant thermal power sector by at least 19% in 2025. Present attempts at emission reduction, along with the government’s massive initiatives towards building renewable energy infrastructure, could be well aligned to India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution submission to COP21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. With such a rapid expansion of energy production it can be assumed that cost-effective and uninterrupted power (i.e. 24/7) can be provided to all citizens of the country well before 2025.

1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing.

PubMed

Mengis, Nadine; Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Jalbert, Jonathan; Matthews, H Damon

2018-04-11

Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO 2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF) carbon budget of 469 PgC since 1850, with a 95% likelihood range of (411,528) PgC. CO 2 emissions from land-use change (LUC) add about 230 PgC. Our best estimate of the total (FF + LUC) carbon budget for 1.5 °C is therefore 699 PgC, which corresponds to about 11 years of current emissions. Non-CO 2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions represent equivalent cumulative CO 2 emissions of about 510 PgC and -180 PgC for 1.5 °C, respectively. The increased LUC, high non-CO 2 emissions and decreased aerosols in our scenario, cause the long-term FF carbon budget to decrease following temperature stabilization. In this scenario, negative emissions would be required to compensate not only for the increasing non-CO 2 climate forcing, but also for the declining natural carbon sinks.

Response of gaseous carbon emissions to low-level salinity increase in tidal marsh ecosystem of the Min River estuary, southeastern China.

PubMed

Hu, Minjie; Ren, Hongchang; Ren, Peng; Li, Jiabing; Wilson, Benjamin J; Tong, Chuan

2017-02-01

Although estuarine tidal marshes are important contributors to the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) emission, and environmental factors, with respect to estuarine marshes, has not been clarified thoroughly. This study investigated the crucial factors controlling the emission of CO 2 and CH 4 from a freshwater marsh and a brackish marsh located in a subtropical estuary in southeastern China, as well as their magnitude. The duration of the study period was November 2013 to October 2014. Relevant to both the field and incubation experiments, the CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from the two marshes showed pronounced seasonal variations. The CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from both marshes demonstrated significant positive correlations with the air/soil temperature (p<0.01), but negative correlations with the soil electrical conductivity and the pore water/tide water Cl - and SO 4 2- (p<0.01). The results indicate no significant difference in the CO 2 emissions between the freshwater and brackish marshes in the subtropical estuary, whereas there was a difference in the CH 4 emissions between the two sites (p<0.01). Although future sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion could reduce the CH 4 emissions from the estuarine freshwater marshes, these factors had little effect on the CO 2 emissions with respect to an increase in salinity of less than 5‰. The findings of this study could have important implications for estimating the global warming contributions of estuarine marshes along differing salinity gradients. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Potential Impact of the National Plan for Future Electric Power Supply on Air Quality in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, C.; Hong, J.

2014-12-01

Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) announced the national plan for Korea's future electric power supply (2013 - 2027) in 2013. According to the plan, the national demand for electricity will be increased by 60% compared to that of 2010 and primary energy sources for electric generation will still lean on the fossil fuels such as petroleum, LNG, and coal, which would be a potential threat to air quality of Korea. This study focused on two subjects: (1) How the spatial distribution of the primary air pollutant's emissions (i.e., NOx, SOx, CO, PM) will be changed and (2) How the primary emission changes will influence on the national ambient air quality including ozone in 2027. We used GEOS-Chem model simulation with modification of Korean emissions inventory (Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS)) to simulate the current and future air quality in Korea. The national total emissions of CO, NOx, SOx, PM in year 2027 will be increased by 3%, 8%, 13%, 2%, respectively compared to 2010 and there are additional concern that the future location of the power plants will be closer to the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), where there are approximately 20 million population vulnerable to the potentially worsened air quality. While there are slight increase of concentration of CO, NOx, SOx, and PM in 2027, the O3 concentration is expected to be similar to the level of 2010. Those results may imply the characteristics of air pollution in East Asia such as potentially severe O3 titration and poorer O3/CO or O3/NOx ratio. Furthermore, we will discuss on the impact of transboundary pollution transport from China in the future, which is one of the large factors to control the air quality of Korea.

Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario.

PubMed

Hansen, J; Sato, M; Ruedy, R; Lacis, A; Oinas, V

2000-08-29

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO(2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH(4), and N(2)O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO(2) and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO(2) GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH(4) and O(3) precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO(2) GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO(2) emissions, this reduction of non-CO(2) GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties. PMID:10944197

Stable carbon isotopes to monitor the CO2 source mix in the urban environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, F. R.; Wu, L.; Ramonet, M.; Broquet, G.; Worthy, D. E. J.

2014-12-01

Urban areas are said to be responsible for approximately 71% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions while comprising only two percent of the land area [IEA, 2008]. This limited spatial expansion could facility a monitoring of anthropogenic GHGs from atmospheric observations. As major sources of emissions, cities also have a huge potential to drive emissions reductions. To effectively manage emissions, cities must however, first establish techniques to validate their reported emission statistics. A pilot study which includes continues 13CO2 data from calibrated cavity ring-down spectrometers [Vogel et al. 2013] of two "sister sites" in the vicinity of Toronto, Canada is contrasted to recent observations of 13CO2 observations in Paris during significant pollution events. Using Miller-Tans plots [Miller and Tans, 2003] for our multi-season observations reveals significant changes of the source signatures of night time CO2 emissions which reflect the importance of natural gas burning in Megacities (up to 80% of fossil fuel sources) and show-case the potential of future isotope studies to determine source sectors. Especially the winter data this approach seems suitable to determine the source contribution of different fuel types (natural gas, liquid fuels and coal) which can inform the interpretation of other Greenhouse Gases and air pollution levels.

The Far-ultraviolet "Continuum" in Protoplanetary Disk Systems. II. Carbon Monoxide Fourth Positive Emission and Absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

France, Kevin; Schindhelm, Eric; Burgh, Eric B.; Herczeg, Gregory J.; Harper, Graham M.; Brown, Alexander; Green, James C.; Linsky, Jeffrey L.; Yang, Hao; Abgrall, Hervé; Ardila, David R.; Bergin, Edwin; Bethell, Thomas; Brown, Joanna M.; Calvet, Nuria; Espaillat, Catherine; Gregory, Scott G.; Hillenbrand, Lynne A.; Hussain, Gaitee; Ingleby, Laura; Johns-Krull, Christopher M.; Roueff, Evelyne; Valenti, Jeff A.; Walter, Frederick M.

2011-06-01

We exploit the high sensitivity and moderate spectral resolution of the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph to detect far-ultraviolet (UV) spectral features of carbon monoxide (CO) present in the inner regions of protoplanetary disks for the first time. We present spectra of the classical T Tauri stars HN Tau, RECX-11, and V4046 Sgr, representative of a range of CO radiative processes. HN Tau shows CO bands in absorption against the accretion continuum. The CO absorption most likely arises in warm inner disk gas. We measure a CO column density and rotational excitation temperature of N(CO) = (2 ± 1) × 1017 cm-2 and T rot(CO) 500 ± 200 K for the absorbing gas. We also detect CO A-X band emission in RECX-11 and V4046 Sgr, excited by UV line photons, predominantly H I Lyα. All three objects show emission from CO bands at λ > 1560 Å, which may be excited by a combination of UV photons and collisions with non-thermal electrons. In previous observations these emission processes were not accounted for due to blending with emission from the accretion shock, collisionally excited H2, and photo-excited H2, all of which appeared as a "continuum" whose components could not be separated. The CO emission spectrum is strongly dependent upon the shape of the incident stellar Lyα emission profile. We find CO parameters in the range: N(CO) ~ 1018-1019 cm-2, T rot(CO) >~ 300 K for the Lyα-pumped emission. We combine these results with recent work on photo-excited and collisionally excited H2 emission, concluding that the observations of UV-emitting CO and H2 are consistent with a common spatial origin. We suggest that the CO/H2 ratio (≡ N(CO)/N(H2)) in the inner disk is ~1, a transition between the much lower interstellar value and the higher value observed in solar system comets today, a result that will require future observational and theoretical study to confirm. Based on observations made with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, obtained from the data archive at the Space Telescope Science Institute. STScI is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under NASA contract NAS 5-26555.

Quantification of uncertainty associated with United States high resolution fossil fuel CO2 emissions: updates, challenges and future plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurney, K. R.; Chandrasekaran, V.; Mendoza, D. L.; Geethakumar, S.

2010-12-01

The Vulcan Project has estimated United States fossil fuel CO2 emissions at the hourly time scale and at spatial scales below the county level for the year 2002. Vulcan is built from a wide variety of observational data streams including regulated air pollutant emissions reporting, traffic monitoring, energy statistics, and US census data. In addition to these data sets, Vulcan relies on a series of modeling assumptions and constructs to interpolate in space, time and transform non-CO2 reporting into an estimate of CO2 combustion emissions. The recent version 2.0 of the Vulcan inventory has produced advances in a number of categories with particular emphasis on improved temporal structure. Onroad transportation emissions now avail of roughly 5000 automated traffic count monitors allowing for much improved diurnal and weekly time structure in our onroad transportation emissions. Though the inventory shows excellent agreement with independent national-level CO2 emissions estimates, uncertainty quantification has been a challenging task given the large number of data sources and numerous modeling assumptions. However, we have now accomplished a complete uncertainty estimate across all the Vulcan economic sectors and will present uncertainty estimates as a function of space, time, sector and fuel. We find that, like the underlying distribution of CO2 emissions themselves, the uncertainty is also strongly lognormal with high uncertainty associated with a relatively small number of locations. These locations typically are locations reliant upon coal combustion as the dominant CO2 source. We will also compare and contrast Vulcan fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimates against estimates built from DOE fuel-based surveys at the state level. We conclude that much of the difference between the Vulcan inventory and DOE statistics are not due to biased estimation but mechanistic differences in supply versus demand and combustion in space/time.

Assessment of emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in Indonesia and impacts of national policy for elimination of kerosene use in cooking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Permadi, Didin Agustian; Sofyan, Asep; Kim Oanh, Nguyen Thi

2017-04-01

This study presents an emission inventory (EI) for major anthropogenic sources of Indonesia in 2007 and 2010. The EI was developed using a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches with comprehensive activity data collected at the provincial/district level to produce spatially and temporally distributed emission of toxic pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs). The sources were categorized into: 1) fuel combustion in power plant, 2) industry, 3) transportation, 4) residential and commercial combustion, 5) biomass open burning, and 6) non-combustion agricultural activity and waste disposal. The best estimates of the 2010 national emissions, in Gg, of toxic pollutants were: 1014 SO2; 3323 NOx; 24,849 CO; 4077 NMVOC; 1276 NH3; 2154 PM10; 1728 PM2.5; 246 BC; 718 OC; and GHGs: 540,275 CO2; 3979 CH4 and 180 N2O. During the period from 2007 to 2010, the national emissions increased by 0.7-8.8% (0.23-2.8% per year), varied with species, with the most significant changes obtained for the biomass open burning emissions. For 2010 results, the low and high emission estimates for different species were ranging from -58% to +122% of the corresponding best estimates. The largest range (high uncertainty) was for BC due to the wide range of the limitedly available emission factors. Spatially, higher emission intensity was seen in large urban areas of Java and Sumatra Islands. Temporally, dry months of August-October had higher emissions. During the first 3 years (2007-2010) of implementation, the national policy of elimination of kerosene use in cooking had successfully replaced 4.9 Tg kerosene with 2.6 Tg LPG in 30 designated provinces. The net emission reductions of different species ranged from 48 Mg (SO2) to 7.6 Tg for CO2. The global warming potential weighted emissions from the residential cooking alone, collectively for GHGs and short-lived climate pollutants in 20-yr CO2 eq., would reduce by 2%. More significant reductions in the residential combustion emissions are expected if the solid cooking fuel could be targeted in future fuel conversion programs. The benefits to human health resulted from the emission reduction of toxic pollutants from residential cooking could be substantial and should be assessed in future studies.

Toward verifying fossil fuel CO2 emissions with the CMAQ model: motivation, model description and initial simulation.

PubMed

Liu, Zhen; Bambha, Ray P; Pinto, Joseph P; Zeng, Tao; Boylan, Jim; Huang, Maoyi; Lei, Huimin; Zhao, Chun; Liu, Shishi; Mao, Jiafu; Schwalm, Christopher R; Shi, Xiaoying; Wei, Yaxing; Michelsen, Hope A

2014-04-01

Motivated by the question of whether and how a state-of-the-art regional chemical transport model (CTM) can facilitate characterization of CO2 spatiotemporal variability and verify CO2 fossil-fuel emissions, we for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate CO2. This paper presents methods, input data, and initial results for CO2 simulation using CMAQ over the contiguous United States in October 2007. Modeling experiments have been performed to understand the roles of fossil-fuel emissions, biosphere-atmosphere exchange, and meteorology in regulating the spatial distribution of CO2 near the surface over the contiguous United States. Three sets of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes were used as input to assess the impact of uncertainty of NEE on CO2 concentrations simulated by CMAQ. Observational data from six tall tower sites across the country were used to evaluate model performance. In particular, at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO), a tall tower site that receives urban emissions from Denver CO, the CMAQ model using hourly varying, high-resolution CO2 fossil-fuel emissions from the Vulcan inventory and Carbon Tracker optimized NEE reproduced the observed diurnal profile of CO2 reasonably well but with a low bias in the early morning. The spatial distribution of CO2 was found to correlate with NO(x), SO2, and CO, because of their similar fossil-fuel emission sources and common transport processes. These initial results from CMAQ demonstrate the potential of using a regional CTM to help interpret CO2 observations and understand CO2 variability in space and time. The ability to simulate a full suite of air pollutants in CMAQ will also facilitate investigations of their use as tracers for CO2 source attribution. This work serves as a proof of concept and the foundation for more comprehensive examinations of CO2 spatiotemporal variability and various uncertainties in the future. Atmospheric CO2 has long been modeled and studied on continental to global scales to understand the global carbon cycle. This work demonstrates the potential of modeling and studying CO2 variability at fine spatiotemporal scales with CMAQ, which has been applied extensively, to study traditionally regulated air pollutants. The abundant observational records of these air pollutants and successful experience in studying and reducing their emissions may be useful for verifying CO2 emissions. Although there remains much more to further investigate, this work opens up a discussion on whether and how to study CO2 as an air pollutant.

Measuring Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Across California Land Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, M. L.

2017-12-01

Significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are needed to limit rising planetary temperatures that will otherwise limit Earth's capacity to support life, introducing geopolitical instability. To help mitigate this threat, California has legislated landmark reductions in state-level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that set an example for broader action. Beginning with relatively assured reduction of current emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, future goals are much more challenging with 40% and 80% reductions below 1990 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. While the majority of the reductions must focus on fossil fuels, inventory estimates of non-CO2 GHG emissions (i.e., CH4, N2O, and industrial compounds) constitute 15% of the total, suggesting reductions are required across multiple land use sectors. However, recent atmospheric inversion studies show methane and nitrous oxide (CH4 & N2O) emissions exceed current inventory estimates by factors of 1.2-1.8 and 1.6-2.6 (at 95% confidence), respectively, perhaps constituting up to 30% of State total emissions. The discrepancy is likely because current bottom-up models used for inventories do not accurately capture important management or biophysical factors. In the near term, process level experiments and sector-specific inversions are being planned to quantify the factors controlling non-CO2 GHG emissions for several of the dominant emission sectors. For biosphere carbon, California forests lands, which also depend on the combination of management, climate, and weather, lost above ground carbon from 2001-2010, and may be expected to lose soil and root carbon as a longer-term result. Here, it is important to identify and apply the best principles in forestry and agriculture to increase carbon stocks in depleted forest and agricultural areas, focusing on approaches that provide resilience to future climate and weather variations. Taken together, improved atmospheric, plant, and soil observations, together with empirical and/or process-level models should be developed to quantify current trajectories of both biological CO2 exchange and non-CO2 GHG emissions, identify knowledge gaps, and guide mitigation policies.

Globally significant greenhouse-gas emissions from African inland waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges, Alberto V.; Bouillon, Steven

2017-04-01

The relevance of inland waters to global biogeochemical cycles is increasingly recognized, and of particular importance is their contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The latter remain largely unreported in African inland waters. Here we report dissolved CO2, CH4 and N2O from 12 rivers in Sub-Saharan Africa acquired during >30 field expeditions and additional seasonally resolved sampling at >30 sites between 2006 and 2014. Fluxes were calculated from reported gas transfer velocity values, and upscaled using available spatial datasets, with an estimated uncertainty of about ±19%. CO2 equivalent emissions ( 0.4±0.1 PgC yr-1) match 2/3 of the overall net carbon sink previously reported for Africa. Including emissions from wetlands of the Congo, the putative total emission ( 0.9±0.1 PgC yr-1) is about half of the global oceanic or land carbon sinks. In-situ respiration supported <14% of riverine CO2 emissions, which must therefore largely be driven by mineralization in wetlands or uplands. Riverine CO2 and CH4 emissions were directly correlated to wetland coverage and aboveground vegetation biomass, implying that future changes in wetland and upland vegetation cover will strongly impact GHG emissions from African inland waters.

Responses of CH(4), CO(2) and N(2)O fluxes to increasing nitrogen deposition in alpine grassland of the Tianshan Mountains.

PubMed

Li, Kaihui; Gong, Yanming; Song, Wei; He, Guixiang; Hu, Yukun; Tian, Changyan; Liu, Xuejun

2012-06-01

To assess the effects of nitrogen (N) deposition on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in alpine grassland of the Tianshan Mountains in central Asia, CH(4), CO(2) and N(2)O fluxes were measured from June 2010 to May 2011. Nitrogen deposition tended to significantly increase CH(4) uptake, CO(2) and N(2)O emissions at sites receiving N addition compared with those at site without N addition during the growing season, but no significant differences were found for all sites outside the growing season. Air temperature, soil temperature and water content were the important factors that influence CO(2) and N(2)O emissions at year-round scale, indicating that increased temperature and precipitation in the future will exert greater impacts on CO(2) and N(2)O emissions in the alpine grassland. In addition, plant coverage in July was also positively correlated with CO(2) and N(2)O emissions under elevated N deposition rates. The present study will deepen our understanding of N deposition impacts on GHG balance in the alpine grassland ecosystem, and help us assess the global N effects, parameterize Earth System models and inform decision makers. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The contribution of reactive carbon emissions from vegetation to the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Guenther, Alex

2002-12-01

About 2.4 Pg (1 Pg = 10(15) g) of carbon is emitted annually into the atmosphere as reactive compounds and most of it is eventually oxidized to CO2. Isoprene, alpha-pinene, methanol, carbon monoxide and other compounds emitted by terrestrial vegetation contribute about half of the total flux and are estimated to produce about 1 Pg C as CO2 per year. The global average for vegetated surfaces is about 7 g C m(-2) per year but could exceed 100 g m(-2) per year at some tropical locations. The magnitude of these fluxes on both the landscape and global scales are small relative to the total carbon emission or deposition but are significant relative to the net fluxes. Reactive carbon fluxes are very sensitive to landcover and climate change and may vary significantly due to future perturbations. This paper summarizes what is known about reactive carbon emissions from vegetation including the magnitude of local, landscape, and global scale fluxes and their contribution to atmospheric CO2. Reasons for including this term in carbon flux models are presented as well as the potential importance on various spatial scales. Past, present and future reactive carbon emissions are expected to differ significantly and the implications of this are discussed.

Future emissions pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Grubb, M.; Rogelj, J.; Skeie, R. B.; Friedlingstein, P.; Forster, P.; Frame, D. J.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Allen, M. R.

2016-12-01

The stated aim of the 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreement is `holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C'. We show that emissions reductions proportional to those achieved in an ambitious mitigation scenario, RCP2.6, but beginning in 2017, give a median estimated peak warming of 1.5°C, with a likely (66% probability) range of uncertainty of 1.2-2.0°C. Such a scenario would be approximately consistent with the most ambitious interpretation of the 2030 emissions pledges, but requires reduction rates exceeding 0.3GtC/yr/yr after 2030. A steady reduction at less than half this rate would achieve the same temperature outcome if initiated in 2020. Limiting total CO2 emissions after 2015 to 200GtC would limit future warming to likely less than 0.6°C above present, consistent with 1.5°C above pre-industrial, based on the distribution of responses of the CMIP5 Earth System, but the CMIP5 simulations do not correspond to scenarios that aim to limit warming to such low levels. If future CO2 emissions are successfully adapted to the emerging climate response so as to limit warming in 2100 to 0.6°C above present, and non-CO2 emissions follow the ambitious RCP2.6 scenario, then we estimate that resulting CO2 emissions will unlikely be restricted to less than 250GtC given current uncertainties in climate system response, although still-poorly-modelled carbon cycle feedbacks, such as release from permafrost, may encroach on this budget. Even under a perfectly successful adaptive mitigation regime, emissions consistent with limiting warming to 0.6°C above present are unlikely to be greater than 500GtC.These estimates suggest the 1.5°C goal may not yet be geophysically insurmountable but will nevertheless require, at minimum, the full implementation of the most ambitious interpretation of the Paris pledges followed by accelerated and more fundamental changes in our global energy system. More ambitious reductions over 2020-2030 reduce the risk of unsustainable rates of decarbonisation being required after 2030.

Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC) Electricity Generating Unit (EGU) Emission Projection Tool (2015 EIC)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Class content will include examples of how the Tool maybe applied to calculate the impacts of various air pollution control regulations (for example, the Mercury and Air Toxics Rule) on future year activity as well as NOx, SO2, and CO2 emissions.

Izu-Oshima volcano, Japan: ten years of geochemical monitoring by means of CO2 soil diffuse degassing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez Perez, P. A.; Mori, T.; Notsu, K.; Morita, M.; Padron, E.; Onizawa, S.; Melián, G.; Sumino, H.; Asensio-Ramos, M.; Nogami, K.; Yamane, K.; Perez, N. M.

2016-12-01

Izu-Oshima is an active volcanic island located around 100 km SSW of Tokyo. The centre of the island is occupied by a caldera complex with a diameter of 3 km. A large post-caldera cone known as Mt. Mihara is located at the south-western quadrant of the caldera. Izu-Oshima has erupted 74 times, consisting mainly in fissure eruptions, both inside and outside of the caldera. The last eruption of Izu-Oshima occurred in 1986. Since 2007, eight soil gas surveys have been carried out to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of diffuse CO2 emission from this volcanic system and to identify those structures controlling the degassing process. Diffuse CO2 emission surveys were always carried out following the accumulation chamber method. Spatial distribution maps were constructed following the sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) procedure. The location of the CO2 anomalies has always shown a close relationship with the structural characteristics of Miharayama, with most of the gas discharged from the rim of the summit crater. Temporal evolution of diffuse CO2 emission rate from Mt. Miharayama has shown a good temporal correlation with the main two peaks of seismic activity occur when highest CO diffuse emissions were computed, March 2007, August 2010 and July 2011, may be associated with fluid pressure fluctuations in the volcanic system due stress changes at depth. In order to strength the contribution of deep seated gases, we performed carbon isotopic analysis of soil gas samples at selected sites during 2010, 2013, 2015 and 2016 surveys. At isotopic compositions lighter than - 6‰, the soil CO2 effluxes were always low, while at heavier isotopic compositions an increasing number of points are characterized by relatively high soil CO efflux. Soil CO2 efflux peak values (xB) showed also a good correlation with the observed seismicity, with the largest value computed on June 2013. This parameter is a geochemical expression of the magnitude of the anomalous degassing, and the observed change in the trend may indicate an increase of the seismic-volcanic activity in the next future. Therefore, performing regularly soil CO2 efflux surveys seems to be an effective geochemical surveillance tool Izu-Oshima volcano in order to detect a change in the tendency of the CO2 emission rate in case of future episodes of volcanic unrest.

Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics at 0.25° horizontal resolution for forest bioenergy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherubini, F.

2015-12-01

Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy remain partially unexplored. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored. Emission metrics of CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis and their quantification requires processing of a wide spectrum of modelled or observed local climate and forest conditions. On the other hand, emission metrics are widely used to aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.), but a spatially explicit analysis of emission metrics with global forest coverage is today lacking. Examples of emission metrics include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Here, we couple a global forest model, a heterotrophic respiration model, and a global climate model to produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy. We show their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the different RCP scenarios. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1 (mean ± standard deviation), 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1, and 2.14·10-14 ± 0.11·10-14 °C (kg yr-1)-1 for GWP, GTP and aSET, respectively. We also present results aggregated at a grid, national and continental level. The metrics are found to correlate with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables like annual mean temperature and precipitation. Simplified equations are derived to infer metric values from the turnover time of the biomass feedstock and the fraction of forest residues left on site after harvest. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales.

Vehicle emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers: trends and tradeoffs.

PubMed

Edwards, Morgan R; Klemun, Magdalena M; Kim, Hyung Chul; Wallington, Timothy J; Winkler, Sandra L; Tamor, Michael A; Trancik, Jessika E

2017-08-24

Evaluating technology options to mitigate the climate impacts of road transportation can be challenging, particularly when they involve a tradeoff between long-lived emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide) and short-lived emissions (e.g., methane or black carbon). Here we present trends in short- and long-lived emissions for light- and heavy-duty transport globally and in the U.S., EU, and China over the period 2000-2030, and we discuss past and future changes to vehicle technologies to reduce these emissions. We model the tradeoffs between short- and long-lived emission reductions across a range of technology options, life cycle emission intensities, and equivalency metrics. While short-lived vehicle emissions have decreased globally over the past two decades, significant reductions in CO 2 will be required by mid-century to meet climate change mitigation targets. This is true regardless of the time horizon used to compare long- and short-lived emissions. The short-lived emission intensities of some low-CO 2 technologies are higher than others, and thus their suitability for meeting climate targets depends sensitively on the evaluation time horizon. Other technologies offer low intensities of both short-lived emissions and CO 2 .

Understanding changes in the UK's CO2 emissions: a global perspective.

PubMed

Baiocchi, Giovanni; Minx, Jan C

2010-02-15

The UK appears to be a leading country in curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Unlike many other developed countries, it has already met its Kyoto obligations and defined ambitious, legally binding targets for the future. Recently this achievement has been called into question as it ignores rapidly changing patterns of production and international trade. We use structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to investigate the drivers behind annual changes in CO(2) emission from consumption in the UK between 1992 and 2004. In contrast with previous SDA-based studies, we apply the decomposition to a global, multiregional input-output model (MRIO), which accounts for UK imports from all regions and uses region-specific production structures and CO(2) intensities. We find that improvements from "domestic" changes in efficiency and production structure led to a 148 Mt reduction in CO(2) emissions, which only partially offsets emission increases of 217 Mt from changes in the global supply chain and from growing consumer demand. Recent emission reductions achieved in the UK are not merely a reflection of a greening of the domestic supply chain, but also of a change in the international division of labor in the global production of goods and services.

U.S. regional greenhouse gas emissions analysis comparing highly resolved vehicle miles traveled and CO2 emissions: mitigation implications and their effect on atmospheric measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, D. L.; Gurney, K. R.

2010-12-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas and projections of fossil fuel energy demand show CO2 concentrations increasing indefinitely into the future. After electricity production, the transportation sector is the second largest CO2 emitting economic sector in the United States, accounting for 32.3% of the total U.S. emissions in 2002. Over 80% of the transport sector is composed of onroad emissions, with the remainder shared by the nonroad, aircraft, railroad, and commercial marine vessel transportation. In order to construct effective mitigation policy for the onroad transportation sector and more accurately predict CO2 emissions for use in transport models and atmospheric measurements, analysis must incorporate the three components that determine the CO2 onroad transport emissions: vehicle fleet composition, average speed of travel, and emissions regulation strategies. Studies to date, however, have either focused on one of these three components, have been only completed at the national scale, or have not explicitly represented CO2 emissions instead relying on the use of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as an emissions proxy. National-level projections of VMT growth is not sufficient to highlight regional differences in CO2 emissions growth due to the heterogeneity of vehicle fleet and each state’s road network which determines the speed of travel of vehicles. We examine how an analysis based on direct CO2 emissions and an analysis based on VMT differ in terms of their emissions and mitigation implications highlighting potential biases introduced by the VMT-based approach. This analysis is performed at the US state level and results are disaggregated by road and vehicle classification. We utilize the results of the Vulcan fossil fuel CO2 emissions inventory which quantified emissions for the year 2002 across all economic sectors in the US at high resolution. We perform this comparison by fuel type,12 road types, and 12 vehicle types for US census regions and individual states. At the national level, rural roads show a 5% higher CO2 relative fraction compared to the VMT relative fraction, mostly due to a 15% higher CO2 fraction on rural interstates as a result of a higher proportion of heavy-duty vehicles such as large trucks. The diesel vehicle fleet has a 62% higher CO2 fraction compared to VMT with the largest contributors being buses and the heaviest truck classes. The differences become larger when analyzed at the state level. For example, Tennessee has 30% higher CO2 fractions compared to VMT on rural interstates and New York has 175% higher CO2 fractions compared to VMT for the bus vehicle class. Using VMT as a proxy for CO2 emissions results in incorrect estimations of CO2 emissions because of the strong space and time variations in fleet composition and road type. At the national scale the differences among the two methods are very small, but the spatial signature of CO2 emitted by onroad traffic is very strong and highly dependent on the region which can be confirmed with atmospheric measurements from aircraft and flux towers.

Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Bauer, Nico; Baumstark, Lavinia; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Popp, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Strefler, Jessica; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2018-05-01

We explore the feasibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C without overshoot and without the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For this purpose, we perform a sensitivity analysis of four generic emissions reduction measures to identify a lower bound on future CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Final energy demand reductions and electrification of energy end uses as well as decarbonization of electricity and non-electric energy supply are all considered. We find the lower bound of cumulative fossil fuel and industry CO2 emissions to be 570 GtCO2 for the period 2016-2100, around 250 GtCO2 lower than the lower end of available 1.5°C mitigation pathways generated with integrated assessment models. Estimates of 1.5°C-consistent CO2 budgets are highly uncertain and range between 100 and 900 GtCO2 from 2016 onwards. Based on our sensitivity analysis, limiting warming to 1.5°C will require CDR or terrestrial net carbon uptake if 1.5°C-consistent budgets are smaller than 650 GtCO2. The earlier CDR is deployed, the more it neutralizes post-2020 emissions rather than producing net negative emissions. Nevertheless, if the 1.5°C budget is smaller than 550 GtCO2, temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C limit becomes unavoidable if CDR cannot be ramped up faster than to 4 GtCO2 in 2040 and 10 GtCO2 in 2050. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time?

PubMed

Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Bauer, Nico; Baumstark, Lavinia; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Popp, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Strefler, Jessica; van Vuuren, Detlef P

2018-05-13

We explore the feasibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C without overshoot and without the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For this purpose, we perform a sensitivity analysis of four generic emissions reduction measures to identify a lower bound on future CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Final energy demand reductions and electrification of energy end uses as well as decarbonization of electricity and non-electric energy supply are all considered. We find the lower bound of cumulative fossil fuel and industry CO 2 emissions to be 570 GtCO 2 for the period 2016-2100, around 250 GtCO 2 lower than the lower end of available 1.5°C mitigation pathways generated with integrated assessment models. Estimates of 1.5°C-consistent CO 2 budgets are highly uncertain and range between 100 and 900 GtCO 2 from 2016 onwards. Based on our sensitivity analysis, limiting warming to 1.5°C will require CDR or terrestrial net carbon uptake if 1.5°C-consistent budgets are smaller than 650 GtCO 2 The earlier CDR is deployed, the more it neutralizes post-2020 emissions rather than producing net negative emissions. Nevertheless, if the 1.5°C budget is smaller than 550 GtCO 2 , temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C limit becomes unavoidable if CDR cannot be ramped up faster than to 4 GtCO 2 in 2040 and 10 GtCO 2 in 2050.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Monitoring CO2 emissions to gain a dynamic view of carbon allocation to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi.

PubMed

Slavíková, Renata; Püschel, David; Janoušková, Martina; Hujslová, Martina; Konvalinková, Tereza; Gryndlerová, Hana; Gryndler, Milan; Weiser, Martin; Jansa, Jan

2017-01-01

Quantification of carbon (C) fluxes in mycorrhizal plants is one of the important yet little explored tasks of mycorrhizal physiology and ecology. 13 CO 2 pulse-chase labelling experiments are increasingly being used to track the fate of C in these plant-microbial symbioses. Nevertheless, continuous monitoring of both the below- and aboveground CO 2 emissions remains a challenge, although it is necessary to establish the full C budget of mycorrhizal plants. Here, a novel CO 2 collection system is presented which allows assessment of gaseous CO 2 emissions (including isotopic composition of their C) from both belowground and shoot compartments. This system then is used to quantify the allocation of recently fixed C in mycorrhizal versus nonmycorrhizal Medicago truncatula plants with comparable biomass and mineral nutrition. Using this system, we confirmed substantially greater belowground C drain in mycorrhizal versus nonmycorrhizal plants, with the belowground CO 2 emissions showing large variation because of fluctuating environmental conditions in the glasshouse. Based on the assembled 13 C budget, the C allocation to the mycorrhizal fungus was between 2.3% (increased 13 C allocation to mycorrhizal substrate) and 2.9% (reduction of 13 C allocation to mycorrhizal shoots) of the plant gross photosynthetic production. Although the C allocation to shoot respiration (measured during one night only) did not differ between the mycorrhizal and nonmycorrhizal plants under our experimental conditions, it presented a substantial part (∼10%) of the plant C budget, comparable to the amount of CO 2 released belowground. These results advocate quantification of both above- and belowground CO 2 emissions in future studies.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Carbon Dioxide Using Structure Functions in Urban Areas: Insights for Future Active Remote CO2 Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Yonghoon; Yang, Melissa; Kooi, Susan A.; Browell, Edward V.; DiGangi, Joshua P.

2015-01-01

High resolution in-situ CO2 measurements were recorded onboard the NASA P-3B during the DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) Field Campaigns during July 2011 over Washington DC/Baltimore, MD; January-February 2013 over the San Joaquin Valley, CA; September 2013 over Houston, TX; and July-August 2014 over Denver, CO. Each of these campaigns have approximately two hundred vertical soundings of CO2 within the lower troposphere (surface to about 5 kilometers) at 6-8 different sites in each of the urban areas. In this study, we used structure function analysis, which is a useful way to quantify spatial and temporal variability, by displaying differences with average observations, to evaluate the variability of CO2 in the 0-2 kilometers range (representative of the planetary boundary layer). These results can then be used to provide guidance in the development of science requirements for the future ASCENDS (Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons) mission to measure near-surface CO2 variability in different urban areas. We also compare the observed in-situ CO2 variability with the variability of the CO2 column-averaged optical depths in the 0-1 kilometer and 0-3.5 kilometers altitude ranges in the four geographically different urban areas, using vertical weighting functions for potential future ASCENDS lidar CO2 sensors operating in the 1.57 and 2.05 millimeter measurement regions. In addition to determining the natural variability of CO2 near the surface and in the column, radiocarbon method using continuous CO2 and CO measurements are used to examine the variation of emission quantification between anthropogenic and biogenic sources in the DC/Maryland urban site.

Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacCracken, Michael C.

2008-06-15

Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8{sup o}C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5-1{sup o}C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and themore » commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2{sup o}C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2-2.5{sup o}C above its 1750 value of approximately 15{sup o}C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modem society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and other non-CO{sub 2} greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO{sub 2} emissions while minimizing growth in CO{sub 2} emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed. 183 refs., 13 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

2016-05-17

The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO 2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO 2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

Assessing air quality and climate impacts of future ground freight choice in United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Bond, T. C.; Smith, S.; Lee, B.; Ouyang, Y.; Hwang, T.; Barkan, C.; Lee, S.; Daenzer, K.

2013-12-01

The demand for freight transportation has continued to increase due to the growth of domestic and international trade. Emissions from ground freight (truck and railways) account for around 7% of the greenhouse gas emissions, 4% of the primary particulate matter emission and 25% of the NOx emissions in the U.S. Freight railways are generally more fuel efficient than trucks and cause less congestion. Freight demand and emissions are affected by many factors, including economic activity, the spatial distribution of demand, freight modal choice and routing decision, and the technology used in each modal type. This work links these four critical aspects of freight emission system to project the spatial distribution of emissions and pollutant concentration from ground freight transport in the U.S. between 2010 and 2050. Macroeconomic scenarios are used to forecast economic activities. Future spatial structure of employment and commodity demand in major metropolitan areas are estimated using spatial models and a shift-share model, respectively. Freight flow concentration and congestion patterns in inter-regional transportation networks are predicted from a four-step freight demand forecasting model. An asymptotic vehicle routing model is also developed to estimate delivery ton-miles for intra-regional freight shipment in metropolitan areas. Projected freight activities are then converted into impacts on air quality and climate. CO2 emissions are determined using a simple model of freight activity and fuel efficiency, and compared with the projected CO2 emissions from the Second Generation Model. Emissions of air pollutants including PM, NOx and CO are calculated with a vehicle fleet model SPEW-Trend, which incorporates the dynamic change of technologies. Emissions are projected under three economic scenarios to represent different plausible futures. Pollutant concentrations are then estimated using tagged chemical tracers in an atmospheric model with the emissions serving as input.

Comparative Analysis of Modeling Studies on China's Future Energy and Emissions Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Nina; Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David

The past decade has seen the development of various scenarios describing long-term patterns of future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with each new approach adding insights to our understanding of the changing dynamics of energy consumption and aggregate future energy trends. With the recent growing focus on China's energy use and emission mitigation potential, a range of Chinese outlook models have been developed across different institutions including in China's Energy Research Institute's 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report, McKinsey & Co's China's Green Revolution report, the UK Sussex Energy Group and Tyndall Centre's China's Energy Transition report, and the China-specificmore » section of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009. At the same time, the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed a bottom-up, end-use energy model for China with scenario analysis of energy and emission pathways out to 2050. A robust and credible energy and emission model will play a key role in informing policymakers by assessing efficiency policy impacts and understanding the dynamics of future energy consumption and energy saving and emission reduction potential. This is especially true for developing countries such as China, where uncertainties are greater while the economy continues to undergo rapid growth and industrialization. A slightly different assumption or storyline could result in significant discrepancies among different model results. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the key models in terms of their scope, methodologies, key driver assumptions and the associated findings. A comparative analysis of LBNL's energy end-use model scenarios with the five above studies was thus conducted to examine similarities and divergences in methodologies, scenario storylines, macroeconomic drivers and assumptions as well as aggregate energy and emission scenario results. Besides directly tracing different energy and CO{sub 2} savings potential back to the underlying strategies and combination of efficiency and abatement policy instruments represented by each scenario, this analysis also had other important but often overlooked findings.« less

Contrasting Impact of Future CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO3 Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franco, A. C.; Gruber, N.; Frölicher, T. L.; Kropuenske Artman, L.

2018-03-01

The eastern boundary upwelling systems are among those regions that are most vulnerable to an ocean acidification-induced transition toward undersaturated conditions with respect to mineral CaCO3, but no assessment exists yet for the Humboldt Current System. Here we use a high-resolution (˜7.5 km) regional ocean model to investigate past and future changes in ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state in this system. We find that within the next few decades, the nearshore waters off Peru are projected to become corrosive year round with regard to aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. The volume of aragonite undersaturated water off Peru will continue to increase in the future irrespective of the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. In contrast, the development of the saturation state with regard to calcite, a less soluble form of carbonate, depends strongly on the scenario followed. By 2050, calcite undersaturation appears in the nearshore waters off Peru occasionally, but by 2090 in a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), ˜60% of the water in the euphotic zone will become permanently calcite undersaturated. Most of this calcite undersaturation off Peru can likely be avoided if a low emission scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Paris Agreement is followed. The progression of ocean acidification off Chile follows a similar pattern, except that the saturation states are overall higher. But also here, calcite undersaturated waters will become common in the subsurface waters under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end of this century, while this can be avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario.

Dynamics and controls of CO2 and CH4 emissions in the wetland of a montane permafrost region, northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xia; Guo, Yuedong; Hu, Haiqing; Sun, Chengkun; Zhao, Xikuan; Wei, Changlei

2015-12-01

To quantify the fluxes and examine the controls on greenhouse gas emissions from the permafrost marshes where the fate of the large quantity of soil organic carbon remains poorly understood, we measured carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions in the northern region of the Great Xing'an Mountains, northeast China, in the thawing seasons of 2011 and 2012. The mean CO2 and CH4 fluxes from the marshes were estimated at 403.47 and 0.14 mg m-2 h-1 on average during the two years. Soil temperature was determined as the primary control on the seasonal greenhouse gas emissions during the growing period. The Q10 values, calculated from the exponential regression between soil temperature and CO2 emissions, suggest that the sensitivity of CO2 flux to climate warming has a high spatially variability in the study area. Absorption of atmospheric CH4 was seasonally detected at the sites with lower water table, which confirms the potential of the natural marshes as CH4 sink when water table goes down due to climate change. When viewed from the ecosystem scale, the mean annual water table level and aboveground primary production were deemed as the dominant influencing factors for the mean annual fluxes, which suggests that there were different controls on the gas emissions at different spatial scales. Therefore, the primary controls of the CO2 and CH4 emissions at different spatial scales need to be surveyed in more detail when focusing on the future alteration of greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost marshes due to climate warming.

Decomposition of Organic Carbon in Fine Soil Particles Is Likely More Sensitive to Warming than in Coarse Particles: An Incubation Study with Temperate Grassland and Forest Soils in Northern China

PubMed Central

Ding, Fan; Huang, Yao; Sun, Wenjuan; Jiang, Guangfu; Chen, Yue

2014-01-01

It is widely recognized that global warming promotes soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition, and soils thus emit more CO2 into the atmosphere because of the warming; however, the response of SOC decomposition to this warming in different soil textures is unclear. This lack of knowledge limits our projection of SOC turnover and CO2 emission from soils after future warming. To investigate the CO2 emission from soils with different textures, we conducted a 107-day incubation experiment. The soils were sampled from temperate forest and grassland in northern China. The incubation was conducted over three short-term cycles of changing temperature from 5°C to 30°C, with an interval of 5°C. Our results indicated that CO2 emissions from sand (>50 µm), silt (2–50 µm), and clay (<2 µm) particles increased exponentially with increasing temperature. The sand fractions emitted more CO2 (CO2-C per unit fraction-C) than the silt and clay fractions in both forest and grassland soils. The temperature sensitivity of the CO2 emission from soil particles, which is expressed as Q10, decreased in the order clay>silt>sand. Our study also found that nitrogen availability in the soil facilitated the temperature dependence of SOC decomposition. A further analysis of the incubation data indicated a power-law decrease of Q10 with increasing temperature. Our results suggested that the decomposition of organic carbon in fine-textured soils that are rich in clay or silt could be more sensitive to warming than those in coarse sandy soils and that SOC might be more vulnerable in boreal and temperate regions than in subtropical and tropical regions under future warming. PMID:24736659

Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yunha; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Pinder, Rob W.

2016-04-01

We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is reduced by ˜ 2 µg m-3 on average over the USA, and surface ozone by ˜ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (˜ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is ˜ 0.04 W m-2 over the globe, and ˜ 0.8 W m-2 over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m-2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is -0.06 W m-2 due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multinational efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and (2) to simultaneously target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the resulting climate benefit occurs faster and provides co-benefits to air quality and public health.

Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Seltzer, Karl; Shindell, Cary

2018-04-01

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions1. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations2. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits3,4. However, 2 °C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 °C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a `standard' 2 °C scenario to 1.5 °C or could achieve 2 °C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 ± 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with 40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

How Can CO2 Help Agriculture in the Face of Climate Change?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delphine, Deryng; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Conway, Declan; Ruane, Alexander C.; Gerten, Dieter; Jones, James W.;

Mechanisms controlling the dependence of surface warming on cumulative carbon emissions over the next century in a suite of Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Richard; Roussenov, Vassil; Goodwin, Philip; Resplandy, Laure; Bopp, Laurent

2017-04-01

Insight into how to avoid dangerous climate may be obtained from Earth system model projections, which reveal a near-linear dependence of global-mean surface warming on cumulative carbon emissions. This dependence of surface warming on carbon emissions is interpreted in terms of a product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing contribution from atmospheric CO2 and the dependence of radiative forcing from atmospheric CO2 on cumulative carbon emissions. Mechanistically each of these dependences varies, respectively, with ocean heat uptake, the CO2 and non-CO2 radiative forcing, and the ocean and terrestrial uptake of carbon. An ensemble of 9 Earth System models forced by up to 4 Representative Concentration Pathways are diagnosed. In all cases, the dependence of surface warming on carbon emissions evolves primarily due to competing effects of heat and carbon uptake over the upper ocean: there is a reduced effect of radiative forcing from CO2 due to ocean carbon uptake, which is partly compensated by enhanced surface warming due to a reduced effect of ocean heat uptake. There is a wide spread in the dependence of surface warming on carbon emissions, undermining the ability to identify the maximum permitted carbon emission to avoid dangerous climate. Our framework reveals how uncertainty in the future warming trend is high over the next few decades due to relatively high uncertainties in ocean heat uptake, non-CO2 radiative forcing and the undersaturation of carbon in the ocean.

Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural food production to supply Indian diets: Implications for climate change mitigation.

PubMed

Vetter, Sylvia H; Sapkota, Tek B; Hillier, Jon; Stirling, Clare M; Macdiarmid, Jennie I; Aleksandrowicz, Lukasz; Green, Rosemary; Joy, Edward J M; Dangour, Alan D; Smith, Pete

2017-01-16

Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. The growing global population is putting pressure on agricultural production systems that aim to secure food production while minimising GHG emissions. In this study, the GHG emissions associated with the production of major food commodities in India are calculated using the Cool Farm Tool. GHG emissions, based on farm management for major crops (including cereals like wheat and rice, pulses, potatoes, fruits and vegetables) and livestock-based products (milk, eggs, chicken and mutton meat), are quantified and compared. Livestock and rice production were found to be the main sources of GHG emissions in Indian agriculture with a country average of 5.65 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 rice, 45.54 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 mutton meat and 2.4 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 milk. Production of cereals (except rice), fruits and vegetables in India emits comparatively less GHGs with <1 kg CO 2 eq kg -1 product. These findings suggest that a shift towards dietary patterns with greater consumption of animal source foods could greatly increase GHG emissions from Indian agriculture. A range of mitigation options are available that could reduce emissions from current levels and may be compatible with increased future food production and consumption demands in India.

Historical emissions of HFC-23 (CHF3) in China and projections upon policy options by 2050.

PubMed

Fang, Xuekun; Miller, Benjamin R; Su, Shenshen; Wu, Jing; Zhang, Jianbo; Hu, Jianxin

2014-04-01

Trifluoromethane (CHF3, HFC-23) is one of the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) regulated under the Kyoto Protocol with a global warming potential (GWP) of 14 800 (100-year). China's past, present, and future HFC-23 emissions are of considerable interest to researchers and policymakers involved in climate change. In this study, we compiled a comprehensive historical inventory (1980-2012) and a projection (2013-2050) of HFC-23 production, abatements, and emissions in China. Results show that HFC-23 production in China increased from 0.08 ± 0.05 Gg/yr in 1980 to 15.4 ± 2.1 Gg/yr (228 ± 31 Tg/yr CO2-eq) in 2012, while actual HFC-23 emissions reached a peak of 10.5 ± 1.8 Gg/yr (155 ± 27 Tg/y CO2-eq) in 2006, and decreased to a minimum of 7.3 ± 1.3 Gg/yr (108 ± 19 Tg/yr CO2-eq) in 2008 and 2009. Under the examined business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the cumulative emissions of HFC-23 in China over the period 2013-2050 are projected to be 609 Gg (9015 Tg CO2-eq which approximates China's 2012 CO2 emissions). Currently, China's annual HFC-23 emissions are much higher than those from the developed countries, while it is estimated that by year 2027, China's historic contribution to the global atmospheric burden of HFC-23 will have surpassed that of the developed nations under the BAU scenario.

Decomposing Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Regulatory Standards in the Energy Conversion Efficiency and Tractive Energy Domain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pannone, Greg; Thomas, John F; Reale, Michael

The three foundational elements that determine mobile source energy use and tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the tractive energy requirements of the vehicle, the on-cycle energy conversion efficiency of the propulsion system, and the energy source. The tractive energy requirements are determined by the vehicle's mass, aerodynamic drag, tire rolling resistance, and parasitic drag. Oncycle energy conversion of the propulsion system is dictated by the tractive efficiency, non-tractive energy use, kinetic energy recovery, and parasitic losses. The energy source determines the mobile source CO2 emissions. For current vehicles, tractive energy requirements and overall energy conversion efficiency are readily availablemore » from the decomposition of test data. For future applications, plausible levels of mass reduction, aerodynamic drag improvements, and tire rolling resistance can be transposed into the tractive energy domain. Similarly, by combining thermodynamic, mechanical efficiency, and kinetic energy recovery fundamentals with logical proxies, achievable levels of energy conversion efficiency can be established to allow for the evaluation of future powertrain requirements. Combining the plausible levels of tractive energy and on-cycle efficiency provides a means to compute sustainable vehicle and propulsion system scenarios that can achieve future regulations. Using these principles, the regulations established in the United States (U.S.) for fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are evaluated. Fleet-level scenarios are generated and compared to the technology deployment assumptions made during rule-making. When compared to the rule-making assumptions, the results indicate that a greater level of advanced vehicle and propulsion system technology deployment will be required to achieve the model year 2025 U.S. standards for fuel economy and CO2 emissions.« less

Mapping the Spatial Distribution of CO2 release from Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, T.; Werner, C. A.; Kern, C.; Sutton, A. J.; Hauri, E. H.; Kelly, P. J.

2014-12-01

Kīlauea Volcano is a large emitter of volcanic CO2 with emission rates ranging from 7500-30,000 t/d. However, Kīlauea presents a challenging situation for CO2 emission rate measurement in that the main source of SO2 is the active vent in Halema'uma'u Crater, whereas CO2 emits mainly from a large (> 1km2) diffuse region east of the vent. Previous researchers recognized this issue and advocated for the use of a plume-integrated concentration ratio paired with the SO2 emission to determine CO2 emission rates; however, this worked best prior to the opening of the summit vent in 2008, or when SO2emission was still diffuse as opposed to focused degassing from the vent. We used two techniques to study the spatial distribution and temporal variability of CO2 release from the summit caldera in July, 2014. Eddy covariance measurements made at 14 locations in the area of diffuse emission resulted in elevated fluxes that generally ranged from 500 to > 5000 g/m2d, or typical of other volcanic and hydrothermal areas worldwide. MultiGas measurements of the CO2 and SO2 concentration in air at 1-m above the ground identified approximately seven areas of elevated area of CO2 degassing in the caldera. The CO2 concentrations in air were spatially well correlated to approximately 100 m and displayed anisotropy that was consistent with the measured wind direction. Areas of highest CO2 concentration correlated with the areas of highest flux using the eddy covariance method and were found near the middle of the caldera approximately 1 km NE of the active vent. This area overlies the inferred location of the shallow summit reservoir, and is characterized by linear fractures with adhered sublimate deposits at the surface. A few of the fractures are visibly fuming, but much of the degassing in the area is not apparent. Future work includes monitoring the fluxes in this area over time, and attempting to quantify emission rates from the areas of measured flux.

Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016-2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busch, Jonah; Engelmann, Jens

2017-12-01

Reducing tropical deforestation is potentially a large-scale and low-cost strategy for mitigating climate change. Yet previous efforts to project the cost-effectiveness of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from future deforestation across the tropics were hampered by crude available data on historical forest loss. Here we use recently available satellite-based maps of annual forest loss between 2001-2012, along with information on topography, accessibility, protected status, potential agricultural revenue, and an observed inverted-U-shaped relationship between forest cover loss and forest cover, to project tropical deforestation from 2016-2050 under alternative policy scenarios and to construct new marginal abatement cost curves for reducing emissions from tropical deforestation. We project that without new forest conservation policies 289 million hectares of tropical forest will be cleared from 2016-2050, releasing 169 GtCO2. A carbon price of US20/tCO2 (50/tCO2) across tropical countries would avoid 41 GtCO2 (77 GtCO2) from 2016-2050. By comparison, we estimate that Brazil’s restrictive policies in the Amazon between 2004-2012 successfully decoupled potential agricultural revenue from deforestation and reduced deforestation by 47% below what would have otherwise occurred, preventing the emission of 5.2 GtCO2. All tropical countries enacting restrictive anti-deforestation policies as effective as those in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004-2012 would avoid 58 GtCO2 from 2016-2050.

Undoing climate warming by atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal: can a holocene-like climate be restored?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDougall, Andrew

2013-04-01

Understandably, most climate modelling studies of future climate have focused on the affects of carbon emissions in the present century or the long-term fate of anthropogenically emitted carbon. These studies make an assumption: that once net anthropogenic carbon emissions cease, that humanity will make no further effort to intervene in atmospheric composition. There is a case to be made, however, that there will be a desire to return to a "safe" atmospheric concentration of CO2. Realistically this implies synthetically removing CO2 from the atmosphere and storing it is some geologically stable form. For this study experiments were conducted using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) forced with novel future atmospheric trace-gas concentration pathways to explore a gradual return to pre-industrial radiative forcing. The concentration pathways follow each RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) exactly until the peak CO2 concentration of that RCP is reached, at which point atmospheric CO2 is reduced at the same rate it increased until the 1850 concentration of CO2 is reached. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas forcing follows the prescribed RCP path until the year of peak CO2, then is subsequently linearly reduced to pre-industrial forcing. Pasture and crop areas are also gradually reduced to their pre-industrial extent. Under the middle two concentration pathways (4.5 and 6.0) a climate resembling the 20th century climate can be restored by the 25th century, although surface temperature remains above the pre-industrial temperature until at least the 30th century. Due to carbon-cycle feedbacks the quantity of carbon that must be removed from the atmosphere is larger than the quantity that was originally emitted. For concentration pathways 2.6, 4.5, and 6.0 the sequestered CO2 is 115-190% of the original cumulative carbon emissions. These results suggest that even with monumental effort to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, humanity will be living with the consequences of fossil fuel emissions for a very long time.

Estimation of marginal abatement costs of CO2 in Chinese provinces under 2020 carbon emission rights allocation: 2005-2020.

PubMed

Duan, Fumei; Wang, Yong; Wang, Ying; Zhao, Han

2018-06-16

The calculation of marginal abatement costs of CO 2 plays a vital role in meeting China's 2020 emission reduction targets by providing reference for determining carbon tax and carbon trading pricing. However, most existing researches only used one method to discuss regional and industrial marginal abatement costs, and almost no studies predicted future marginal abatement costs from the perspective of CO 2 emission efficiency. To make up for the gaps, this paper first estimates marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in three major industries of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2015 based on three assumptions. Second, based on the principle of fairness and efficiency, China's 2020 emission reduction targets are decomposed by province. Based on the ZSG-C-DDF model, the marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in all provinces in China in 2020 are estimated and compared with the marginal abatement costs of 2005 to 2015. The results show that (1) from 2005 to 2015, marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in all provinces show a fluctuating upward trend; (2) compared with the marginal abatement costs of primary industry or tertiary industry, most provinces have lower marginal abatement costs for secondary industry; and (3) the average marginal abatement costs of CO 2 for China in 2020 are 2766.882 Yuan/tonne for the 40% carbon intensity reduction target and 3334.836 Yuan/tonne for the 45% target, showing that the higher the emission reduction target, the higher the marginal abatement costs of CO 2 . (4) Overall, the average marginal abatement costs of CO 2 in China by 2020 are higher than those in 2005-2015. The empirical analysis in this paper can provide multiple references for environmental policy makers.

CO2 acclimation impacts leaf isoprene emissions: evidence from past to future CO2 levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Hugo; van der Laan, Annick; Dekker, Stefan; Holzinger, Rupert

2017-04-01

Isoprene is emitted by many plant species as a side-product of photosynthesis. Once in the atmosphere, isoprene exhibits climate forcing through various feedback mechanisms. In order to quantify the climate feedbacks of biogenic isoprene emission it is crucial to establish how isoprene emissions are effected by plant acclimation to rising atmospheric CO2 levels. A promising development for modelling CO2-induced changes in isoprene emissions is the Leaf-Energetic-Status model (referred to as LES-model hereafter, see Harrison et al., 2013 and Morfopoulos et al., 2014). This model simulates isoprene emissions based on the hypothesis that isoprene biosynthesis depends on the imbalance between the photosynthetic electron supply of reducing power and the electron demands of carbon fixation. The energetic imbalance is critically related to the photosynthetic electron transport capacity (Jmax) and the maximum carboxylation capacity of Rubisco (Vcmax). Here we compare predictions of the LES-model with observed isoprene emission responses of Quercus robur (pedunculate oak) specimen that acclimated to CO2 growth conditions representative of the last glacial, the present and the end of this century (200, 400 and 800 ppm, respectively) for two growing seasons. These plants were grown in walk-in growth chambers with tight control of light, temperature, humidity and CO2 concentrations. Photosynthetic biochemical parameters Vcmax and Jmax were determined with a Licor LI-6400XT photosynthesis system. The relationship between photosynthesis and isoprene emissions was measured by coupling the photosynthesis system with a Proton-Transfer Reaction Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer. Our empirical results support the LES-model and show that the fractional allocation of carbon to isoprene biosynthesis is reduced in response to both short-term and long-term CO2 increases. In the short term, an increase in CO2 stimulates photosynthesis through an increase in the leaf interior CO2 concentration and marginally decreases isoprene production owing to an increase in the electron demand for carbon fixation. In the long-term, acclimation to rising CO2 growth conditions leads to down regulation of both Jmax and Vcmax, which modulates the stimulating effect of rising CO2 on photosynthesis. This CO2 effect is most pronounced between sub-ambient to present CO2. Our results highlight that the LES-model provides a suitable theoretical framework to model changes in leaf isoprene emissions related to biochemical acclimation to rising CO2. References Harrison, S. P. et al: Volatile isoprenoid emissions from plastid to planet, New Phytol., 197(1), 49-57, 2013. Morfopoulos, C. et al: A model of plant isoprene emission based on available reducing power captures responses to atmospheric CO2, New Phytol., 203(1), 125-139, 2014.

Temporal variations of atmospheric CO2 and CO at Ahmedabad in western India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandra, Naveen; Lal, Shyam; Venkataramani, S.; Patra, Prabir K.; Sheel, Varun

2016-05-01

About 70 % of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted from the megacities and urban areas of the world. In order to draw effective emission mitigation policies for combating future climate change as well as independently validating the emission inventories for constraining their large range of uncertainties, especially over major metropolitan areas of developing countries, there is an urgent need for greenhouse gas measurements over representative urban regions. India is a fast developing country, where fossil fuel emissions have increased dramatically in the last three decades and are predicted to continue to grow further by at least 6 % per year through to 2025. The CO2 measurements over urban regions in India are lacking. To overcome this limitation, simultaneous measurements of CO2 and carbon monoxide (CO) have been made at Ahmedabad, a major urban site in western India, using a state-of-the-art laser-based cavity ring down spectroscopy technique from November 2013 to May 2015. These measurements enable us to understand the diurnal and seasonal variations in atmospheric CO2 with respect to its sources (both anthropogenic and biospheric) and biospheric sinks. The observed annual average concentrations of CO2 and CO are 413.0 ± 13.7 and 0.50 ± 0.37 ppm respectively. Both CO2 and CO show strong seasonality with lower concentrations (400.3 ± 6.8 and 0.19 ± 0.13 ppm) during the south-west monsoon and higher concentrations (419.6 ± 22.8 and 0.72 ± 0.68 ppm) during the autumn (SON) season. Strong diurnal variations are also observed for both the species. The common factors for the diurnal cycles of CO2 and CO are vertical mixing and rush hour traffic, while the influence of biospheric fluxes is also seen in the CO2 diurnal cycle. Using CO and CO2 covariation, we differentiate the anthropogenic and biospheric components of CO2 and found significant contributions of biospheric respiration and anthropogenic emissions in the late night (00:00-05:00 h, IST) and evening rush hours (18:00-22:00 h) respectively. We compute total yearly emissions of CO to be 69.2 ± 0.07 Gg for the study region using the observed CO : CO2 correlation slope and bottom-up CO2 emission inventory. This calculated emission of CO is 52 % larger than the estimated emission of CO by the emissions database for global atmospheric research (EDGAR) inventory. The observations of CO2 have been compared with an atmospheric chemistry-transport model (ACTM), which incorporates various components of CO2 fluxes. ACTM is able to capture the basic variabilities, but both diurnal and seasonal amplitudes are largely underestimated compared to the observations. We attribute this underestimation by the model to uncertainties in terrestrial biosphere fluxes and coarse model resolution. The fossil fuel signal from the model shows fairly good correlation with observed CO2 variations, which supports the overall dominance of fossil fuel emissions over the biospheric fluxes in this urban region.

Mapping palm oil expansion using SAR to study the impact on the CO2 cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Christine

2014-06-01

With Malaysia being the second largest palm oil producer in the world and the fact that palm oil ranks first in vegetable oil production on the world market the palm oil industry became an important factor in the country. Along with the expansion of palm oil across the nation causing deforestation of natural rain forest and conversion of peat land into plantation land there are several factors causing a tremendous increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Main causes of CO2 emission apart from deforestation and peat-land conversion are the fires to create plantation land plus the fires burning waste products of the plantations itself. This paper describes a project that aims at the development of a remote sensing monitoring system to allow a continuous observation of oil palm plantation activities and expansion in order to be able to quantify CO2 emissions. The research concentrates on developing a spaceborne synthetic aperture radar information extraction system for palm oil plantations in the Tropics. This will lead to objective figures that can be used internationally to create a policy implementation plan to sustainably reduce CO2 emission in the future.

Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions.

PubMed

Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Seltzer, Karl; Shindell, Cary

2018-01-01

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, but also for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate even if they lead to identical warming [1]. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations [2]. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits [3, 4]. However, 2°C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5°C trajectories require elimination of most fossil fuel related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing ambition of 21 st century CO 2 reductions by 180 GtC; an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2°C scenario to 1.5°C or could achieve 2°C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153±43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ~40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Committed emissions from existing and planned power plants and asset stranding required to meet the Paris Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeiffer, Alexander; Hepburn, Cameron; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Caldecott, Ben

2018-05-01

Over the coming decade, the power sector is expected to invest ~7.2 trillion USD in power plants and grids globally, much of it into CO2-emitting coal and gas plants. These assets typically have long lifetimes and commit large amounts of (future) CO2 emissions. Here, we analyze the historic development of emission commitments from power plants and compare the emissions committed by current and planned plants with remaining carbon budgets. Based on this comparison we derive the likely amount of stranded assets that would be required to meet the 1.5 °C–2 °C global warming goal. We find that even though the growth of emission commitments has slowed down in recent years, currently operating generators still commit us to emissions (~300 GtCO2) above the levels compatible with the average 1.5 °C–2 °C scenario (~240 GtCO2). Furthermore, the current pipeline of power plants would add almost the same amount of additional commitments (~270 GtCO2). Even if the entire pipeline was cancelled, therefore, ~20% of global capacity would need to be stranded to meet the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Our results can help companies and investors re-assess their investments in fossil-fuel power plants, and policymakers strengthen their policies to avoid further carbon lock-in.

CO2 Emissions from the Los Angeles Basin During Spring of 2010 - Measurements vs. Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, S.; Jeong, S.; Fischer, M. L.; Xu, X.; Gurney, K. R.; Alvarez, S. L.; Rappenglueck, B.; Haman, C. L.; Lefer, B. L.; Miller, C. E.; Yung, Y. L.

2011-12-01

More than half of the world's population now lives in urban areas, contributing large fluxes of greenhouse gas to the atmosphere. Quantifying the spatiotemporal distribution of these emissions is critical for providing independent verification of future mitigation activities. We have used high precision measurements of CO2 and CO to determine the contribution of fossil fuel combustion (ffCO2 mixing ratio) to the total CO2 emissions in the Los Angeles basin during the CalNex-LA ground campaign of May-June 2010 in Pasadena. The ratio of COxs/CO2xs (the excess of each species above free tropospheric levels) varies significantly by time of day, giving a proxy for the fraction of ffCO2/CO2xs. Using an emission ratio for CO/CO2 for fossil fuel combustion of 0.011±0.002 (Wunch et al., 2009, Geophys Res Lett 36, L15810), we determined that burning of fossil fuels contributed ~50% overnight - 100% during midday of the total local contribution, resulting in ffCO2 of 13 - 23 ppm, respectively. These values compare very well with those calculated from Δ14C for measurements of two samples aggregated from 7-8 flask samples collected at 14:00 PST on alternate days during the first and second half of the CalNex-LA campaign: 17 and 24 ppm ffCO2, respectively. We then compared the measured values of ffCO2 with predictions combining a diurnally averaged version of the Vulcan 2.0 ffCO2 emission inventory (http://www.purdue.edu/eas/carbon/vulcan/index.php) and mesoscale transport computed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) models. To evaluate transport model uncertainty, we compared predicted and measured planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and found WRF predictions compared favorably with ceilometer measurements made during the day at the Pasadena site. Initial comparison of the diurnal cycle of ffCO2 determined by the CO/CO2 ratios to that predicted with a temporally constant map of diurnal mean emissions shows the prediction to have a larger diurnal amplitude than the measurements, suggesting that the diurnal cycle of emitted ffCO2 compensates for daytime dilution in the PBL.

Road vehicle emissions of molecular hydrogen (H 2) from a tunnel study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vollmer, Martin K.; Juergens, Niklas; Steinbacher, Martin; Reimann, Stefan; Weilenmann, Martin; Buchmann, Brigitte

Motor vehicle combustion emissions of molecular hydrogen (H 2), carbon monoxide (CO), and carbon dioxide (CO 2) were measured during a 6-week period from November 2004 to January 2005 in Gubrist Tunnel, Switzerland, to determine vehicle emission factors for these trace gases and the ratios of the concentration growths ΔH2/ΔCO and ΔH2/ΔCO2 in the tunnel under real-world highway driving conditions. For H 2, molar mixing ratios at the tunnel exit were found to be 7-10 ppm (parts-per-million, 10-6) during rush hours. Mean emission factors of E=49.7(±16.5)mgkm-1, ECO=1.46(±0.54)gkm-1, and E=266(±69)gkm-1 were calculated. E was largest during weekday rush-hour traffic, a consequence of the more frequent accelerations in congested traffic when fuel combustion is not optimal. E was smaller for heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) compared to light-duty vehicles (LDV), a finding which was attributed to the diesel vs. gasoline engine technology. The mean ΔH2/ΔCO molecular ratio was 0.48±0.12. This ratio increased to ˜0.6 during rush hours, suggesting that H 2 yield is favored relative to CO under fuel-rich conditions, presumably a consequence of an increasing contribution of the water-gas-shift reaction. The mean ΔH2/ΔCO2 molecular ratio was 4.4×10-3 but reduced to 2.5×10-3 when the relative HDV abundance was at maximum. Using three different approaches, road traffic H 2 emissions were estimated for 2004 for Switzerland at 5.0-6.6 Gg and globally at 4.2-8.1 Tg. Despite projections of increasing traffic, Swiss H 2 emissions are not expected to change significantly in the near future, and global emissions are likely to decrease due to improved exhaust gas clean-up technologies.

[Awareness of health co-benefits of carbon emissions reduction in urban residents in Beijing: a cross-sectional survey].

PubMed

Gao, J H; Zhang, Y; Wang, J; Chen, H J; Zhang, G B; Liu, X B; Wu, H X; Li, J; Li, J; Liu, Q Y

2017-05-10

Objective: To understand the awareness of the health co-benefits of carbon emission reduction in urban residents in Beijing and the influencing factors, and provide information for policy decision on carbon emission reduction and health education campaigns. Methods: Four communities were selected randomly from Fangshan, Haidian, Huairou and Dongcheng districts of Beijing, respectively. The sample size was estimated by using Kish-Leslie formula for descriptive analysis. 90 participants were recruited from each community. χ (2) test was conducted to examine the associations between socio-demographic variables and individuals' awareness of the health co-benefits of carbon emission reduction. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the factors influencing the awareness about the health co-benefits. Results: In 369 participants surveyed, 12.7 % reported they knew the health co-benefits of carbon emission reduction. The final logistic regression analysis revealed that age ( OR =0.98), attitude to climate warming ( OR =0.72) and air pollution ( OR =1.59), family monthly average income ( OR =1.27), and low carbon lifestyle ( OR =2.36) were important factors influencing their awareness of the health co-benefits of carbon emission reduction. Conclusion: The awareness of the health co-benefits of carbon emissions reduction were influenced by people' socio-demographic characteristics (age and family income), concerns about air pollution and climate warming, and low carbon lifestyle. It is necessary to take these factors into consideration in future development and implementation of carbon emission reduction policies and related health education campaigns.

Towards a measurement-based national verification system for GHG emissions: UK emission estimates of CO2 from the GAUGE experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzi, Siegfried; Palmer, Paul; O'Doherty, Simon; Young, Dickon; Stanley, Kieran; Stavert, Ann; Grant, Aoife; Helfter, Carole; Mullinger, Neil; Nemitz, Eiko; Allen, Grant; Pitt, Joseph; Le Breton, Michael; Bösch, Hartmut; Sembhi, Harjinder; Sonderfeld, Hannah; Parker, Robert; Bauguitte, Stephane

2016-04-01

Robust quantification of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) is central to the success of ongoing international efforts to slow current emissions and mitigate future climate change. The Greenhouse gAs Uk and Global Emissions (GAUGE) project aims to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of country-scale emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) using concentration measurements from a network of tall towers and mobile platforms (aircraft and ferry) distributed across the UK. The GAUGE measurement programme includes: (a) GHG measurements on a regular ferry route down the North Sea aimed at sampling UK outflow; (b) campaign deployment of the UK BAe-146 research aircraft to provide vertical profile measurements of GHG over and around the UK; (c) a high-density GHG measurement network over East Anglia that is primarily focused on the agricultural sector; and (d) regular measurements of CO2 and CH4 isotopologues used for GHG source attribution. We also use satellite observations from the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to provide continental-scale constraints on GHG flux estimates. We present CO2 flux estimates for the UK inferred from GAUGE measurements using a nested, high-resolution (25 km) version of the GEOS-Chem global atmospheric chemistry and transport model and an ensemble Kalman filter. We will present our current best estimate for CO2 fluxes and a preliminary assessment of the efficacy of individual GAUGE data sources to spatially resolve CO2 flux estimates over the UK. We will also discuss how flux estimates inferred from the different models used within GAUGE can help to assess the role of transport model error and to determine an ensemble CO2 flux estimate for the UK.

Increasing efficiency of CO2 uptake by combined land-ocean sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Marle, M.; van Wees, D.; Houghton, R. A.; Nassikas, A.; van der Werf, G.

2017-12-01

Carbon-climate feedbacks are one of the key uncertainties in predicting future climate change. Such a feedback could originate from carbon sinks losing their efficiency, for example due to saturation of the CO2 fertilization effect or ocean warming. An indirect approach to estimate how the combined land and ocean sink responds to climate change and growing fossil fuel emissions is based on assessing the trends in the airborne fraction of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and land use change. One key limitation with this approach has been the large uncertainty in quantifying land use change emissions. We have re-assessed those emissions in a more data-driven approach by combining estimates coming from a bookkeeping model with visibility-based land use change emissions available for the Arc of Deforestation and Equatorial Asia, two key regions with large land use change emissions. The advantage of the visibility-based dataset is that the emissions are observation-based and this dataset provides more detailed information about interannual variability than previous estimates. Based on our estimates we provide evidence that land use and land cover change emissions have increased more rapidly than previously thought, implying that the airborne fraction has decreased since the start of CO2 measurements in 1959. This finding is surprising because it means that the combined land and ocean sink has become more efficient while the opposite is expected.

Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover and vegetation in modulating climate-chemistry interactions, and highlight aspects that warrant further investigation.

Carbon dioxide emissions from the flat bottom and shallow Nam Theun 2 Reservoir: drawdown area as a neglected pathway to the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Chandrashekhar; Guérin, Frédéric; Vongkhamsao, Axay; Pighini, Sylvie; Oudone, Phetdala; Sopraseuth, Saysoulinthone; Godon, Arnaud; Rode, Wanidaporn; Guédant, Pierre; Oliva, Priscia; Audry, Stéphane; Zouiten, Cyril; Galy-Lacaux, Corinne; Robain, Henri; Ribolzi, Olivier; Kansal, Arun; Chanudet, Vincent; Descloux, Stéphane; Serça, Dominique

2018-03-01

Freshwater reservoirs are a significant source of CO2 to the atmosphere. CO2 is known to be emitted at the reservoir surface by diffusion at the air-water interface and downstream of dams or powerhouses by degassing and along the river course. In this study, we quantified total CO2 emissions from the Nam Theun 2 Reservoir (Lao PDR) in the Mekong River watershed. The study started in May 2009, less than a year after flooding and just a few months after the maximum level was first reached and lasted until the end of 2013. We tested the hypothesis that soils from the drawdown area would be a significant contributor to the total CO2 emissions.Total inorganic carbon, dissolved and particulate organic carbon and CO2 concentrations were measured in 4 pristine rivers of the Nam Theun watershed, at 9 stations in the reservoir (vertical profiles) and at 16 stations downstream of the monomictic reservoir on a weekly to monthly basis. CO2 bubbling was estimated during five field campaigns between 2009 and 2011 and on a weekly monitoring, covering water depths ranging from 0.4 to 16 m and various types of flooded ecosystems in 2012 and 2013. Three field campaigns in 2010, 2011 and 2013 were dedicated to the soils description in 21 plots and the quantification of soil CO2 emissions from the drawdown area. On this basis, we calculated total CO2 emissions from the reservoir and carbon inputs from the tributaries. We confirm the importance of the flooded stock of organic matter as a source of carbon (C) fuelling emissions. We show that the drawdown area contributes, depending on the year, from 40 to 75 % of total annual gross emissions in this flat and shallow reservoir. Since the CO2 emissions from the drawdown zone are almost constant throughout the years, the large interannual variations result from the significant decrease in diffusive fluxes and downstream emissions between 2010 and 2013. This overlooked pathway in terms of gross emissions would require an in-depth evaluation for the soil organic matter and vegetation dynamics to evaluate the actual contribution of this area in terms of net modification of gas exchange in the footprint of the reservoir, and how it could evolve in the future.

A Review of CO2 Sequestration Projects and Application in China

PubMed Central

Tang, Yong; Yang, Ruizhi; Bian, Xiaoqiang

2014-01-01

In 2008, the top CO2 emitters were China, United States, and European Union. The rapid growing economy and the heavy reliance on coal in China give rise to the continued growth of CO2 emission, deterioration of anthropogenic climate change, and urgent need of new technologies. Carbon Capture and sequestration is one of the effective ways to provide reduction of CO2 emission and mitigation of pollution. Coal-fired power plants are the focus of CO2 source supply due to their excessive emission and the energy structure in China. And over 80% of the large CO2 sources are located nearby storage reservoirs. In China, the CO2 storage potential capacity is of about 3.6 × 109 t for all onshore oilfields; 30.483 × 109 t for major gas fields between 900 m and 3500 m of depth; 143.505 × 109 t for saline aquifers; and 142.67 × 109 t for coal beds. On the other hand, planation, soil carbon sequestration, and CH4–CO2 reforming also contribute a lot to carbon sequestration. This paper illustrates some main situations about CO2 sequestration applications in China with the demonstration of several projects regarding different ways of storage. It is concluded that China possesses immense potential and promising future of CO2 sequestration. PMID:25302323

Retrieval of Paris CO2 and CO emissions using a boundary layer budget method in the framework of the CO2-MEGAPARIS project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieudonné, E.; Gibert, F.; Xueref-remy, I. C.; Lopez, M.; Schmidt, M.; Ravetta, F.

2012-12-01

The development of anthropogenic activities since the pre-industrial era has greatly increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, very likely causing the observed rise in global temperature. Therefore, accurate estimations of CO2 emission fluxes are very important for climate predictions. At the continental scale, CO2 fluxes can be estimated rather precisely using inverse modeling while tower turbulent flux measurements (eddy-covariance or EC) can provide an estimation of local-scale fluxes. However, this method cannot be applied to monitor urban CO2 emissions due to their large horizontal variability, so that a regional scale approach seems more suited. Unfortunately, at this scale, anthropogenic and biospheric fluxes are mixed, diluted and advected in the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) and the balance between these processes is not well known. Yet, independent estimations of CO2 fluxes would be needed to verify existing high resolution emission inventories and assess the efficiency of future mitigation policies. Several experiments dedicated to quantifying CO2 emissions from megacities are ongoing, like the CO2-MEGAPARIS research project [a,b]. In this framework, a network of lidars and in-situ sensors has been set up in Paris region. An original ABL mass budget method is used to infer the properties of advected anthropogenic CO2 and CO emissions from Paris urban area [c]. The method is applied in the center of Paris, at neighboring suburban sites located 20 km away, and at a rural station (100 km downwind). The budget uses ABL depths from elastic lidars, CO2 and CO concentrations from both the ICOS [d] and CO2-MEGAPARIS networks to quantify vertical advection and storage terms in the ABL mass budget. EC measurements are used to monitor biospheric surface fluxes. The budget in Paris provides a direct estimation of the average CO2 and CO fluxes from the city, while the budget at the suburban and rural stations provides an estimation of the advected fluxes. These anthropogenic fluxes are compared to the CITEPA and IER emission inventories using the air mass footprint from a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model in backward mode. Results from a case study in March 2012 are presented to assess the propagation of Paris CO2 and CO plume, the precision of the method and its ability to provide an independent verification of urban emission inventories. References: [a] Xueref-Remy et al., Abstract n°A13F-0277, AGU Fall Meeting 2010, San Francisco, USA [b] http://co2-megaparis.lsce.ipsl.fr/ [c] Gibert et al., J. Geophys. Research, 112, D10301 (2007) [d] http://www.icos-infrastructure.eu/

Effects of Climate Change and Organic Matter Amendments on the Fate of Soil Carbon and the Global Warming Potential of CO2, CH4, and N2O Emissions in an Upland Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmonds, M.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

2017-12-01

Our current understanding of the mechanisms driving carbon stabilization in soil organic matter (SOM) and its release to the atmosphere is insufficient for predicting the response of soil carbon dynamics to future climatic conditions. The persistence of SOM has been studied primarily within the context of biochemical, physical, and geochemical protection from decomposition. More recently, bioenergetic constraints on SOM decomposition due to oxygen limitations have been demonstrated in submerged soils. However, the relevance of anaerobic domains in upland soils is uncertain. To better understand how upland soils will respond to climate change, we conducted a 52-day incubation of an upland soil at constant soil moisture (field capacity) under varying air temperatures (32°C and 37°C), CO2 concentrations (398 and 850 ppmv), and soil organic carbon contents (1.3%, 2.4%). Overall, we observed a stimulatory effect of future climate (elevated temperature and CO2) and higher carbon inputs on net SOM mineralization rates (higher CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions). Importantly, CH4 emissions were observed in the soils with added plant residue, indicating anaerobic microsites are relevant in upland soils, and significantly impact microbial respiration pathways, rates of SOM mineralization, and the global warming potential of trace gas emissions. These findings have important implications for positive soil carbon-climate feedbacks, and warrant further investigation into representing anaerobic soil domains of upland soils in biogeochemical models.

Multiple greenhouse gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker, Benjamin; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri; Prentice, Colin

2013-04-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere. The sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since preindustrial times and leads to multiple feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system. The strength of these feedbacks is determined by (i) the sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 and (ii) the greenhouse warming potential of the respective gas. Here, we quantify feedbacks from CO2, CH4, N2O, and land surface albedo in a consistent and comprehensive framework based on a large set of simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The modeled sensitivities of CH4 and N2O emissions are tested, demonstrating that independent data for non-land (anthropogenic, oceanic, etc.) GHG emissions, combined with simulated emissions from natural and agricultural land reproduces historical atmospheric budgets within their uncertainties. 21st-century scenarios for climate, land use change and reactive nitrogen inputs (Nr) are applied to investigate future GHG emissions. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O emissions increase from 9.0 by today to 9.8-11.1 (RCP 2.6) and 14.2-17.0 TgN2O-N/yr by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Without anthropogenic Nr inputs, the amplification is reduced by 24-32%. Soil CH4 emissions increase from 221 at present to 228-245 in RCP 2.6 and to 303-343 TgCH4/yr in RCP 8.5, and the land becomes a net source of C by 2100 AD. Feedbacks from land imply an additional warming of 1.3-1.5°C by 2300 in RCP 8.5, 0.4-0.5°C of which are due to N2O and CH4. The combined effect of multiple GHGs and albedo represents an increasingly positive total feedback to anthropogenic climate change with positive individual feedbacks from CH4, N2O, and albedo outweighing the diminishing negative feedback from CO2 fertilisation of terrestrial C storage. This positive feedback from terrestrial biogeochemistry amplifies the traditionally defined physical equilibrium climate sensitivity by 23-28%, Strong mitigation, reducing Nr inputs and preserving natural vegetation limits the amplification of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier of anthropogenic climate change.

Analysis of consistency of global net land-use change carbon emission scenario using offline vegetation model and earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-12-01

For CMIP5 experiments, emissions scenarios data sets for climate models are prepared as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). IAMs also have depicted regional land-use scenarios based on the socioeconomic assumption of the future scenarios of RCPs. In the land-use harmonization project, gridded land-use transition data has been constructed from the regional IAMs future land-use scenarios which smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land-use based on HYDE 3 data and FAO wood harvest data. In this study, using the gridded transition land-use scenario data, global net CO2 emission from land-use change for each RCPs scenarios is evaluated with a offline version of terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool), utilizing a protocol to estimate carbon emission from deforested biomass considering delayed decomposition of product pools, and regrowth absorption from the secondary lands with abandoned agricultural lands. From the model output, effect of CO2 fertilization and land-use scenario itself on the emission is assessed to see the consistency of the scenarios. In addition, to see the effect of climate change and the climate-carbon feedback on terrestrial ecosystems, net land-use change CO2 emission is also evaluated with an earth system model, MIROC-ESM incorporating a DGVM with land-use change component. In the simulations with earth system model, RCP 6.0 scenario has been evaluated by model runs with and without land-use change forcing.

Quantitative Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Carbon Transferred by International Trade.

PubMed

Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Moore, John; Yan, Qing; Song, Yi; Yang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Wenping; Chou, Jieming; Cui, Xuefeng; Yan, Xiaodong; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Yang, Shili; Tian, Di; Lin, Pengfei; Yang, Song; Wen, Zhiping; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Feng, Guolin; Jiang, Yundi; Zhu, Xian; Chen, Juan; Wei, Xin; Shi, Wen; Zhang, Zhiguo; Dong, Juan; Li, Yexin; Chen, Deliang

2016-06-22

Carbon transfer via international trade affects the spatial pattern of global carbon emissions by redistributing emissions related to production of goods and services. It has potential impacts on attribution of the responsibility of various countries for climate change and formulation of carbon-reduction policies. However, the effect of carbon transfer on climate change has not been quantified. Here, we present a quantitative estimate of climatic impacts of carbon transfer based on a simple CO2 Impulse Response Function and three Earth System Models. The results suggest that carbon transfer leads to a migration of CO2 by 0.1-3.9 ppm or 3-9% of the rise in the global atmospheric concentrations from developed countries to developing countries during 1990-2005 and potentially reduces the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol by up to 5.3%. However, the induced atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate changes (e.g., in temperature, ocean heat content, and sea-ice) are very small and lie within observed interannual variability. Given continuous growth of transferred carbon emissions and their proportion in global total carbon emissions, the climatic effect of traded carbon is likely to become more significant in the future, highlighting the need to consider carbon transfer in future climate negotiations.

The role of non-CO2 mitigation within the dairy sector in pursuing climate goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolph, K.; Forest, C. E.

2017-12-01

Mitigation of non-CO2 climate forcing agents must complement the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) to achieve long-term temperature and climate policy goals. By using multi-gas mitigation strategies, society can limit the rate of temperature change on decadal timescales and reduce the cost of implementing policies that only consider CO2 mitigation. The largest share of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions is attributed to agriculture, with activities related to dairy production contributing the most in this sector. Approximately 4% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is released from the dairy sub-sector, primarily through enteric fermentation, feed production, and manure management. Dairy farmers can significantly reduce their emissions by implementing better management practices. This study assesses the potential mitigation of projected climate change if greenhouse gases associated with the dairy sector were reduced. To compare the performance of several mitigation measures under future climate change, we employ a fully coupled earth system model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). The model includes an interactive carbon-cycle capable of addressing important feedbacks between the climate and terrestrial biosphere. Mitigation scenarios are developed using estimated emission reductions of implemented management practices studied by the USDA-funded Sustainable Dairy Project (Dairy-CAP). We examine pathways to reach the US dairy industry's voluntary goal of reducing dairy emissions 25% by 2020. We illustrate the importance of ongoing mitigation efforts in the agricultural industry to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions towards established climate goals.

Solar-powered aeration and disinfection, anaerobic co-digestion, biological CO2 scrubbing and biofuel production: the energy and carbon management opportunities of waste stabilisation ponds.

PubMed

Shilton, A N; Mara, D D; Craggs, R; Powell, N

2008-01-01

Waste stabilisation pond (WSP) technology offers some important advantages and interesting possibilities when viewed in the light of sustainable energy and carbon management. Pond systems stand out as having significant advantages due to simple construction; low (or zero) operating energy requirements; and the potential for bio-energy generation. Conventional WSP requires little or no electrical energy for aerobic treatment as a result of algal photosynthesis. Sunlight enables WSP to disinfect wastewaters very effectively without the need for any chemicals or electricity consumption and their associated CO(2) emissions. The energy and carbon emission savings gained over electromechanical treatment systems are immense. Furthermore, because algal photosynthesis consumes CO(2), WSP can be utilised as CO(2) scrubbers. The environmental and financial benefits of pond technology broaden further when considering the low-cost, energy production opportunities of anaerobic ponds and the potential of algae as a biofuel. As we assess future best practice in wastewater treatment technology, perhaps one of the greatest needs is an improved consideration of the carbon footprint and the implications of future increases in the cost of electricity and the value of biogas. (c) IWA Publishing 2008.

Trade-based carbon sequestration accounting.

PubMed

King, Dennis M

2004-04-01

This article describes and illustrates an accounting method to assess and compare "early" carbon sequestration investments and trades on the basis of the number of standardized CO2 emission offset credits they will provide. The "gold standard" for such credits is assumed to be a relatively riskless credit based on a CO2 emission reduction that provides offsets against CO2 emissions on a one-for-one basis. The number of credits associated with carbon sequestration needs to account for time, risk, durability, permanence, additionality, and other factors that future trade regulators will most certainly use to assign "official" credits to sequestration projects. The method that is presented here uses established principles of natural resource accounting and conventional rules of asset valuation to "score" projects. A review of 20 "early" voluntary United States based CO2 offset trades that involve carbon sequestration reveals that the assumptions that buyers, sellers, brokers, and traders are using to characterize the economic potential of their investments and trades vary enormously. The article develops a "universal carbon sequestration credit scoring equation" and uses two of these trades to illustrate the sensitivity of trade outcomes to various assumptions about how future trade auditors are likely to "score" carbon sequestration projects in terms of their "equivalency" with CO2 emission reductions. The article emphasizes the importance of using a standard credit scoring method that accounts for time and risk to assess and compare even unofficial prototype carbon sequestration trades. The scoring method illustrated in this article is a tool that can protect the integrity of carbon sequestration credit trading and can assist buyers and sellers in evaluating the real economic potential of prospective trades.

Estimated HCFC-22 emissions for 1990-2050 in China and the increasing contribution to global emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhifang; Bie, Pengju; Wang, Ziyuan; Zhang, Zhaoyang; Jiang, Hanyu; Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Jianbo; Hu, Jianxin

2016-05-01

Chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF2, HCFC-22) is a widely used refrigerant and foaming agent that is not only an ozone-depleting substance (ozone depletion potential (ODP), 0.04) but also a greenhouse gas (global warming potential (GWP), 1780). A comprehensive historical emission inventory for 1990-2014 was produced using a bottom-up method, and a projection through to 2050 was made for China. The results demonstrated that historical emissions increased sharply from 0.2 Gg/yr in 1990 to 127.2 Gg/yr in 2014. Room air-conditioners (RACs), industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR), and extruded polystyrene (XPS) were three primary emission sources, and accounted for an average of 95.4% of the total emissions over the period studied. The percentage of global HCFC-22 emissions originating from China significantly increased from 0.1% in 1990 to 31.6% in 2012, with an average growth rate of 1.4% per year. Under the Montreal Protocol phasing-out (MPPO) scenario, future emissions were expected to reach a peak of 133.5 Gg/yr in 2016 and then continuously decline to 10.2 Gg/yr in 2050. The accumulative reduction for 2015-2050 would be 5533.8 Gg (equivalent to 221.4 CFC-11-eq Gg and 9850.1 CO2-eq Tg), which is approximately equivalent to the total CO2 emission for China in 2012 (9900 Tg) (Olivier et al., 2013), compared with the no Montreal Protocol scenario (NMP). Under the MPPO scenario, two cases were analyzed to explore the future emission ranges in China. A comparison between the two cases implied that the choice of emission reduction policy will have a considerable impact on HCFC-22 emissions.

Allocating a 2 °C cumulative carbon budget to countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gignac, Renaud; Damon Matthews, H.

2015-07-01

Recent estimates of the global carbon budget, or allowable cumulative CO2 emissions consistent with a given level of climate warming, have the potential to inform climate mitigation policy discussions aimed at maintaining global temperatures below 2 °C. This raises difficult questions, however, about how best to share this carbon budget amongst nations in a way that both respects the need for a finite cap on total allowable emissions, and also addresses the fundamental disparities amongst nations with respect to their historical and potential future emissions. Here we show how the contraction and convergence (C&C) framework can be applied to the division of a global carbon budget among nations, in a manner that both maintains total emissions below a level consistent with 2 °C, and also adheres to the principle of attaining equal per capita CO2 emissions within the coming decades. We show further that historical differences in responsibility for climate warming can be quantified via a cumulative carbon debt (or credit), which represents the amount by which a given country’s historical emissions have exceeded (or fallen short of) the emissions that would have been consistent with their share of world population over time. This carbon debt/credit calculation enhances the potential utility of C&C, therefore providing a simple method to frame national climate mitigation targets in a way that both accounts for historical responsibility, and also respects the principle of international equity in determining future emissions allowances.

Development of WRF-CO2 4DVAR Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, T.; French, N. H. F.

2016-12-01

Four dimensional variational (4DVar) assimilation systems have been widely used for CO2 inverse modeling at global scale. At regional scale, however, 4DVar assimilation systems have been lacking. At present, most regional CO2 inverse models use Lagrangian particle backward trajectory tools to compute influence function in an analytical/synthesis framework. To provide a 4DVar based alternative, we developed WRF-CO2 4DVAR based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), its chemistry extension (WRF-Chem), and its data assimilation system (WRFDA/WRFPLUS). Different from WRFDA, WRF-CO2 4DVAR does not optimize meteorology initial condition, instead it solves for the optimized CO2 surface fluxes (sources/sink) constrained by atmospheric CO2 observations. Based on WRFPLUS, we developed tangent linear and adjoint code for CO2 emission, advection, vertical mixing in boundary layer, and convective transport. Furthermore, we implemented an incremental algorithm to solve for optimized CO2 emission scaling factors by iteratively minimizing the cost function in a Bayes framework. The model sensitivity (of atmospheric CO2 with respect to emission scaling factor) calculated by tangent linear and adjoint model agrees well with that calculated by finite difference, indicating the validity of the newly developed code. The effectiveness of WRF-CO2 4DVar for inverse modeling is tested using forward-model generated pseudo-observation data in two experiments: first-guess CO2 fluxes has a 50% overestimation in the first case and 50% underestimation in the second. In both cases, WRF-CO2 4DVar reduces cost function to less than 10-4 of its initial values in less than 20 iterations and successfully recovers the true values of emission scaling factors. We expect future applications of WRF-CO2 4DVar with satellite observations will provide insights for CO2 regional inverse modeling, including the impacts of model transport error in vertical mixing.

Technical opportunities to reduce global anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winiwarter, Wilfried; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Klimont, Zbigniew; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Amann, Markus

2018-01-01

We describe a consistent framework developed to quantify current and future anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide and the available technical abatement options by source sector for 172 regions globally. About 65% of the current emissions derive from agricultural soils, 8% from waste, and 4% from the chemical industry. Low-cost abatement options are available in industry, wastewater, and agriculture, where they are limited to large industrial farms. We estimate that by 2030, emissions can be reduced by about 6% ±2% applying abatement options at a cost lower than 10 €/t CO2-eq. The largest abatement potential at higher marginal costs is available from agricultural soils, employing precision fertilizer application technology as well as chemical treatment of fertilizers to suppress conversion processes in soil (nitrification inhibitors). At marginal costs of up to 100 €/t CO2-eq, about 18% ±6% of baseline emissions can be removed and when considering all available options, the global abatement potential increases to about 26% ±9%. Due to expected future increase in activities driving nitrous oxide emissions, the limited technical abatement potential available means that even at full implementation of reduction measures by 2030, global emissions can be at most stabilized at the pre-2010 level. In order to achieve deeper reductions in emissions, considerable technological development will be required as well as non-technical options like adjusting human diets towards moderate animal protein consumption.

Bulk energy storage increases United States electricity system emissions.

PubMed

Hittinger, Eric S; Azevedo, Inês M L

2015-03-03

Bulk energy storage is generally considered an important contributor for the transition toward a more flexible and sustainable electricity system. Although economically valuable, storage is not fundamentally a "green" technology, leading to reductions in emissions. We model the economic and emissions effects of bulk energy storage providing an energy arbitrage service. We calculate the profits under two scenarios (perfect and imperfect information about future electricity prices), and estimate the effect of bulk storage on net emissions of CO2, SO2, and NOx for 20 eGRID subregions in the United States. We find that net system CO2 emissions resulting from storage operation are nontrivial when compared to the emissions from electricity generation, ranging from 104 to 407 kg/MWh of delivered energy depending on location, storage operation mode, and assumptions regarding carbon intensity. Net NOx emissions range from -0.16 (i.e., producing net savings) to 0.49 kg/MWh, and are generally small when compared to average generation-related emissions. Net SO2 emissions from storage operation range from -0.01 to 1.7 kg/MWh, depending on location and storage operation mode.

An ALMA Survey of CO Isotopologue Emission from Protoplanetary Disks in Chamaeleon I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long Feng; Herczeg, Gregory J.; Pascucci, Ilaria

The mass of a protoplanetary disk limits the formation and future growth of any planet. Masses of protoplanetary disks are usually calculated from measurements of the dust continuum emission by assuming an interstellar gas-to-dust ratio. To investigate the utility of CO as an alternate probe of disk mass, we use ALMA to survey {sup 13}CO and C{sup 18}O J = 3–2 line emission from a sample of 93 protoplanetary disks around stars and brown dwarfs with masses from in the nearby Chamaeleon I star-forming region. We detect {sup 13}CO emission from 17 sources and C{sup 18}O from only one source.more » Gas masses for disks are then estimated by comparing the CO line luminosities to results from published disk models that include CO freeze-out and isotope-selective photodissociation. Under the assumption of a typical interstellar medium CO-to-H{sub 2} ratio of 10{sup −4}, the resulting gas masses are implausibly low, with an average gas mass of ∼0.05 M {sub Jup} as inferred from the average flux of stacked {sup 13}CO lines. The low gas masses and gas-to-dust ratios for Cha I disks are both consistent with similar results from disks in the Lupus star-forming region. The faint CO line emission may instead be explained if disks have much higher gas masses, but freeze-out of CO or complex C-bearing molecules is underestimated in disk models. The conversion of CO flux to CO gas mass also suffers from uncertainties in disk structures, which could affect gas temperatures. CO emission lines will only be a good tracer of the disk mass when models for C and CO depletion are confirmed to be accurate.« less

An ALMA Survey of CO Isotopologue Emission from Protoplanetary Disks in Chamaeleon I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, Feng; Herczeg, Gregory J.; Pascucci, Ilaria; Drabek-Maunder, Emily; Mohanty, Subhanjoy; Testi, Leonardo; Apai, Daniel; Hendler, Nathan; Henning, Thomas; Manara, Carlo F.; Mulders, Gijs D.

2017-08-01

The mass of a protoplanetary disk limits the formation and future growth of any planet. Masses of protoplanetary disks are usually calculated from measurements of the dust continuum emission by assuming an interstellar gas-to-dust ratio. To investigate the utility of CO as an alternate probe of disk mass, we use ALMA to survey 13CO and C18O J = 3–2 line emission from a sample of 93 protoplanetary disks around stars and brown dwarfs with masses from in the nearby Chamaeleon I star-forming region. We detect 13CO emission from 17 sources and C18O from only one source. Gas masses for disks are then estimated by comparing the CO line luminosities to results from published disk models that include CO freeze-out and isotope-selective photodissociation. Under the assumption of a typical interstellar medium CO-to-H2 ratio of 10‑4, the resulting gas masses are implausibly low, with an average gas mass of ∼0.05 M Jup as inferred from the average flux of stacked 13CO lines. The low gas masses and gas-to-dust ratios for Cha I disks are both consistent with similar results from disks in the Lupus star-forming region. The faint CO line emission may instead be explained if disks have much higher gas masses, but freeze-out of CO or complex C-bearing molecules is underestimated in disk models. The conversion of CO flux to CO gas mass also suffers from uncertainties in disk structures, which could affect gas temperatures. CO emission lines will only be a good tracer of the disk mass when models for C and CO depletion are confirmed to be accurate.

Quantifying the influence of CO2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasse, T. P.; McNeil, B. I.; Matear, R. J.; Lenton, A.

2015-10-01

Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem - from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 ± 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.

Emission projections of the transport Sector in China: 2015-2040

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, L.

2016-12-01

Driven by the significant growth freight and passenger transport demand, transport sector has become a sector that is largely responsible for increases in emissions of atmospheric pollutants (NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5) in China. Figuring out the emission trend in China's transport sector has great influence on formulating emission reduction measures in the future. In this work, both on-road and off-road transport emissions in China were estimated from 2015 to 2040 for CO, NOx, HC and PM2.5. The projection was conducted based on on the energy consumption structure forecast from IEA (International Energy Agency), the future national average annual distance traveled per vehicle and fuel consumption per distance derived from simulation results of the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impact (FEEI) model. The results show that the ownership of on-road vehicles in China increases rapidly during 2015 to 2030 and then the growth slows down. Finally, the total amount reaches up to 522 million in 2040 in which 84.5% turns out to be light-duty vehicles. Because current control legislations for the transport sector in China will continue to be strengthened in the future, the total emissions of China's transport sector were projected to peak around 2030, due to the improvement of vehicle emission standard and the retirement of old vehicles are the most effective measures. The off-road transport will become the main contributor to emissions from transport sector in China since 2030. This work provides a new perspective to understand emissions from both on-road and off-road transport in China, which can support the achievement of improving air quality promised by the Chinese government. This work provides a new perspective to understand the emission trends of on-road and off-road transport sector in China from 2015 to 2040, which can support the achievement of the air quality goal promised by the Chinese government. Driven by the significant growth freight and passenger transport demand, transport sector has become a sector that is largely responsible for increases in emissions of atmospheric pollutants (NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5) in China. Figuring out the emission trend in China's transport sector has great influence on formulating emission reduction measures in the future. In this work, both on-road and off-road transport emissions in China were estimated from 2015 to 2040 for CO, NOx, HC and PM2.5. The projection was conducted based on on the energy consumption structure forecast from IEA (International Energy Agency), the future national average annual distance traveled per vehicle and fuel consumption per distance derived from simulation results of the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impact (FEEI) model. The results show that the ownership of on-road vehicles in China increases rapidly during 2015 to 2030 and then the growth slows down. Finally, the total amount reaches up to 522 million in 2040 in which 84.5% turns out to be light-duty vehicles. Because current control legislations for the transport sector in China will continue to be strengthened in the future, the total emissions of China's transport sector were projected to peak around 2030, due to the improvement of vehicle emission standard and the retirement of old vehicles are the most effective measures. The off-road transport will become the main contributor to emissions from transport sector in China since 2030. This work provides a new perspective to understand emissions from both on-road and off-road transport in China, which can support the achievement of improving air quality promised by the Chinese government. This work provides a new perspective to understand the emission trends of on-road and off-road transport sector in China from 2015 to 2040, which can support the achievement of the air quality goal promised by the Chinese government.

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyring, Veronika; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Berntsen, Terje; Collins, William J.; Corbett, James J.; Endresen, Oyvind; Grainger, Roy G.; Moldanova, Jana; Schlager, Hans; Stevenson, David S.

2010-12-01

Emissions of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing ships are a significant and growing contributor to the total emissions from the transportation sector. We present an assessment of the contribution of gaseous and particulate emissions from oceangoing shipping to anthropogenic emissions and air quality. We also assess the degradation in human health and climate change created by these emissions. Regulating ship emissions requires comprehensive knowledge of current fuel consumption and emissions, understanding of their impact on atmospheric composition and climate, and projections of potential future evolutions and mitigation options. Nearly 70% of ship emissions occur within 400 km of coastlines, causing air quality problems through the formation of ground-level ozone, sulphur emissions and particulate matter in coastal areas and harbours with heavy traffic. Furthermore, ozone and aerosol precursor emissions as well as their derivative species from ships may be transported in the atmosphere over several hundreds of kilometres, and thus contribute to air quality problems further inland, even though they are emitted at sea. In addition, ship emissions impact climate. Recent studies indicate that the cooling due to altered clouds far outweighs the warming effects from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) or ozone from shipping, overall causing a negative present-day radiative forcing (RF). Current efforts to reduce sulphur and other pollutants from shipping may modify this. However, given the short residence time of sulphate compared to CO 2, the climate response from sulphate is of the order decades while that of CO 2 is centuries. The climatic trade-off between positive and negative radiative forcing is still a topic of scientific research, but from what is currently known, a simple cancellation of global mean forcing components is potentially inappropriate and a more comprehensive assessment metric is required. The CO 2 equivalent emissions using the global temperature change potential (GTP) metric indicate that after 50 years the net global mean effect of current emissions is close to zero through cancellation of warming by CO 2 and cooling by sulphate and nitrogen oxides.

Assessment of on-road transportation demand and CO2 emissions for determination of air quality impacts from the Megacity of São Paulo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Martinez, P. J.; Miranda, R. M.; Andrade, M. D. F.

2017-12-01

In this manuscript we assess the capability of using mobility surveys and a high-scale assignment and emission model to study climate change and air quality impacts related to on-road transportation in the Megacity of São Paulo (MSP). Initially, we estimate CO2 emissions of light and heavy vehicles (LVs and HVs) at a spatial scale of 500m and temporal scale of an hour, using transport demand modeling. The estimates are based on origin and destination trip pairs and the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These estimates, performed for the years 2007 and 2012, depend also on intermediate variables as dilution rates (D) and surface particulate-matter concentrations (PM). Secondly, we assess the changes in CO2 vehicle emissions from the MRSP over the period 2007-2012 (4% year-1). Consequently, CO2 emission inventories merge trip-based surveys, traffic assignments and road network database with air pollution monitoring data. Despite the difference of the methodologies, we use a road link bottom up vehicle activity based approach, the assessed emissions agree with the State's Emission Inventory. This paper shows that the CO2 emissions from LDVs and HDVs in the MSP in 2007 and 2012 were 8,477 and 10,075 tCeq day-1 (58% LVs and 42% HVs), respectively. CO2 emissions from vehicles show spatial patterns consistent with passenger and freight transport trips and road network assignments. Temporal profiles (diurnal, weekly and monthly) were estimated using traffic counts and congestion surrogates. The profiles were compared with average road-site (Western of MSP) and background (Jaraguá Peak) CO2 measurements available for 2014. On-road measurements showed one peak associated to the morning peak hour of vehicles (437±45 ppm) and another night peak (435±49 ppm) related to the low PBL (313 m) and D (329 m2 h-1). From on-road measurements, background values (414±2 ppm) were subtracted to estimate excess CO2 (12±8 ppm) directly attributed to vehicles. The inventory reflects the relationships between traffic patterns and emissions, and the developed methodology could be used to evaluate the impacts of forthcoming urban transport and emission control policies. In the future, our estimates will be verified with ground measurements of CO2 concentrations over a bigger monitoring network in the MSP.

Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2011-12-01

In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

Carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges, Alberto V.; Abril, Gwenaël.

2010-05-01

We carried out a literature overview to synthesize current knowledge on CO2 and CH4 dynamics and fluxes with the atmosphere in estuarine environments. Estuarine systems are highly dynamic in terms of carbon cycling and emit CO2 to the atmosphere at rates that are quantitatively significant for the global C cycle. This emission of CO2 to the atmosphere is strongly supported by the net heterotrophic nature of these ecosystems. The robustness of the evaluation of the emission of CO2 from estuarine ecosystems has increased in last years due to increasing data availability and improvements in the surface area estimates by types. At present, the lack of sufficient data is the major limitation in the quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of CO2 fluxes in estuarine environments. Regarding future observations, there is also a need for sustained measurements to unravel inter-annual variability and long-term trends of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Indeed, due to the strong linkage with river catchements, inter-annual variability of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments is expected to be strong. Data used in the present synthesis were either obtained by the authors, data mined from publications or communicated by colleagues. There is a need for publicly available and quality checked data-bases for CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Not only cross-system meta-analysis of data (CO2, CH4, O2, …) can be enlightening as explored in the present work, but also considering the uncertainties in the evaluation of the gas transfer velocity, there could be a need for future re-evaluations of air-water CO2 and CH4 fluxes, requiring access to the raw pCO2 and [CH4] data.

Essays on the Determinants of Energy Related CO2 Emissions =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moutinho, Victor Manuel Ferreira

Overall, amongst the most mentioned factors for Greenhouse Gases (GHG) growth are the economic growth and the energy demand growth. To assess the determinants GHG emissions, this thesis proposed and developed a new analysis which links the emissions intensity to its main driving factors. In the first essay, we used the 'complete decomposition' technique to examine CO2 emissions intensity and its components, considering 36 economic sectors and the 1996-2009 periods in Portugal. The industry (in particular 5 industrial sectors) is contributing largely to the effects of variation of CO2 emissions intensity. We concluded, among others, the emissions intensity reacts more significantly to shocks in the weight of fossil fuels in total energy consumption compared to shocks in other variables. In the second essay, we conducted an analysis for 16 industrial sectors (Group A) and for the group of the 5 most polluting manufacturing sectors (Group B) based on the convergence examination for emissions intensity and its main drivers, as well as on an econometric analysis. We concluded that there is sigma convergence for all the effects with exception to the fossil fuel intensity, while gamma convergence was verified for all the effects, with exception of CO2 emissions by fossil fuel and fossil fuel intensity in Group B. From the econometric approach we concluded that the considered variables have a significant importance in explaining CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions intensity. In the third essay, the Tourism Industry in Portugal over 1996-2009 period was examined, specifically two groups of subsectors that affect the impacts on CO2 emissions intensity. The generalized variance decomposition and the impulse response functions pointed to sectors that affect tourism more directly, i. e. a bidirectional causality between the intensity of emissions and energy intensity. The effect of intensity of emissions is positive on energy intensity, and the effect of energy intensity on emissions intensity is negative. The percentage of fossil fuels used reacts positively to the economic structure and to carbon intensity, i. e., the more the economic importance of the sector, the more it uses fossil fuels, and when it raises its carbon intensity, in the future the use of fossil fuel may rise. On the other hand, positive shocks on energy intensity tend to reduce the percentage of fossil fuels used. In fourth essay, we conducted an analysis to identify the effects that contribute to the intensity of GHG emissions (EI) in agriculture as well as their development. With that aim, we used the 'complete decomposition' technique in the 1995-2008 periods, for a set of European countries. It is shown that the use of Nitrogen per cultivated area is an important factor of emissions and in those countries where labour productivity increases (the inverse of average labour productivity in agriculture decreases), emissions intensity tends to decrease. These results imply that the way to reduce emissions in agriculture would be to provide better training of agricultural workers to increase their productivity, which would lead to a less need for energy and use of Nitrogen. The purpose of the last essay is to examine the long and short-run causality of the share of renewable sources on the environmental relation CO2 per KWh electricity generation- real GDP for 20 European countries over the 2001-2010 periods. It is important to analyze how the percentage of renewable energy used for electricity production affects the relationship between economic growth and emissions from this sector. The study of these relationships is important from the point of view of environmental and energy policy as it gives us information on the costs in terms of economic growth, on the application of restrictive levels of emissions and also on the effects of the policies concerning the use of renewable energy in the electricity sector (see for instance European Commission Directive 2001/77/EC, [4]). For that purpose, in this study we use Cointegration Analysis on the set of cross-country panel data between CO2 emissions from electricity generation (CO2 kWh), economic growth (GDP) and the share of renewable energy for 20 European countries. We estimated the long-run equilibrium to validate the EKC with a new approach specification. Additionally, we have implemented the Innovative Accounting Approach (IAA) that includes Forecast Error Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs), applied to those variables. This can allow us, for example, to know (i) how CO2 kWh responds to an impulse in GDP and (ii) how CO2 kWh responds to an impulse in the share of renewable sources. The contributions of this thesis to the energy-related CO2 emissions at sectorial level are threefold: First, it provides a new econometric decomposition approach for analysing and developing CO2 emissions in collaboration with science societies that can serve as a starting point for future research approaches. Second, it presents a hybrid energy-economy mathematic and econometric model which relates CO2 emissions in Portugal based on economic theory. Third, it contributes to explain the change of CO2 emissions in important economic sectors in Europe, in particular in Portugal, taking normative considerations into account more openly and explicitly, with political implications at energy-environment level within the European commitment. None

Net air emissions from electric vehicles: the effect of carbon price and charging strategies.

PubMed

Peterson, Scott B; Whitacre, J F; Apt, Jay

2011-03-01

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may become part of the transportation fleet on time scales of a decade or two. We calculate the electric grid load increase and emissions due to vehicle battery charging in PJM and NYISO with the current generation mix, the current mix with a $50/tonne CO(2) price, and this case but with existing coal generators retrofitted with 80% CO(2) capture. We also examine all new generation being natural gas or wind+gas. PHEV fleet percentages between 0.4 and 50% are examined. Vehicles with small (4 kWh) and large (16 kWh) batteries are modeled with driving patterns from the National Household Transportation Survey. Three charging strategies and three scenarios for future electric generation are considered. When compared to 2020 CAFE standards, net CO(2) emissions in New York are reduced by switching from gasoline to electricity; coal-heavy PJM shows somewhat smaller benefits unless coal units are fitted with CCS or replaced with lower CO(2) generation. NO(X) is reduced in both RTOs, but there is upward pressure on SO(2) emissions or allowance prices under a cap.

Estimated Effects of Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on Protein Intake and the Risk of Protein Deficiency by Country and Region

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Joel; Myers, Samuel S.

2017-01-01

Background: Crops grown under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) contain less protein. Crops particularly affected include rice and wheat, which are primary sources of dietary protein for many countries. Objectives: We aimed to estimate global and country-specific risks of protein deficiency attributable to anthropogenic CO2 emissions by 2050. Methods: To model per capita protein intake in countries around the world under eCO2, we first established the effect size of eCO2 on the protein concentration of edible portions of crops by performing a meta-analysis of published literature. We then estimated per-country protein intake under current and anticipated future eCO2 using global food balance sheets (FBS). We modeled protein intake distributions within countries using Gini coefficients, and we estimated those at risk of deficiency from estimated average protein requirements (EAR) weighted by population age structure. Results: Under eCO2, rice, wheat, barley, and potato protein contents decreased by 7.6%, 7.8%, 14.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. Consequently, 18 countries may lose >5% of their dietary protein, including India (5.3%). By 2050, assuming today’s diets and levels of income inequality, an additional 1.6% or 148.4 million of the world’s population may be placed at risk of protein deficiency because of eCO2. In India, an additional 53 million people may become at risk. Conclusions: Anthropogenic CO2 emissions threaten the adequacy of protein intake worldwide. Elevated atmospheric CO2 may widen the disparity in protein intake within countries, with plant-based diets being the most vulnerable. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP41 PMID:28885977

Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Y. H.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately µg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +C02 W m(sup -2) due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is -0.06 W m(sup -2) due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multinational efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and (2) to simultaneously target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the resulting climate benefit occurs faster and provides cobenefits to air quality and public health.

Fossil-Fuel C02 Emissions Database and Exploration System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krassovski, M.; Boden, T.

2012-04-01

Fossil-Fuel C02 Emissions Database and Exploration System Misha Krassovski and Tom Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Oak Ridge National Laboratory The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) quantifies the release of carbon from fossil-fuel use and cement production each year at global, regional, and national spatial scales. These estimates are vital to climate change research given the strong evidence suggesting fossil-fuel emissions are responsible for unprecedented levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. The CDIAC fossil-fuel emissions time series are based largely on annual energy statistics published for all nations by the United Nations (UN). Publications containing historical energy statistics make it possible to estimate fossil-fuel CO2 emissions back to 1751 before the Industrial Revolution. From these core fossil-fuel CO2 emission time series, CDIAC has developed a number of additional data products to satisfy modeling needs and to address other questions aimed at improving our understanding of the global carbon cycle budget. For example, CDIAC also produces a time series of gridded fossil-fuel CO2 emission estimates and isotopic (e.g., C13) emissions estimates. The gridded data are generated using the methodology described in Andres et al. (2011) and provide monthly and annual estimates for 1751-2008 at 1° latitude by 1° longitude resolution. These gridded emission estimates are being used in the latest IPCC Scientific Assessment (AR4). Isotopic estimates are possible thanks to detailed information for individual nations regarding the carbon content of select fuels (e.g., the carbon signature of natural gas from Russia). CDIAC has recently developed a relational database to house these baseline emissions estimates and associated derived products and a web-based interface to help users worldwide query these data holdings. Users can identify, explore and download desired CDIAC fossil-fuel CO2 emissions data. This presentation introduces the architecture and design of the new relational database and web interface, summarizes the present state and functionality of the Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions Database and Exploration System, and highlights future plans for expansion of the relational database and interface.

Sponge biomass and bioerosion rates increase under ocean warming and acidification.

PubMed

Fang, James K H; Mello-Athayde, Matheus A; Schönberg, Christine H L; Kline, David I; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Dove, Sophie

2013-12-01

The combination of ocean warming and acidification as a result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) is considered to be a significant threat to calcifying organisms and their activities on coral reefs. How these global changes impact the important roles of decalcifying organisms (bioeroders) in the regulation of carbonate budgets, however, is less understood. To address this important question, the effects of a range of past, present and future CO2 emission scenarios (temperature + acidification) on the excavating sponge Cliona orientalis Thiele, 1900 were explored over 12 weeks in early summer on the southern Great Barrier Reef. C. orientalis is a widely distributed bioeroder on many reefs, and hosts symbiotic dinoflagellates of the genus Symbiodinium. Our results showed that biomass production and bioerosion rates of C. orientalis were similar under a pre-industrial scenario and a present day (control) scenario. Symbiodinium population density in the sponge tissue was the highest under the pre-industrial scenario, and decreased towards the two future scenarios with sponge replicates under the 'business-as-usual' CO2 emission scenario exhibiting strong bleaching. Despite these changes, biomass production and the ability of the sponge to erode coral carbonate materials both increased under the future scenarios. Our study suggests that C. orientalis will likely grow faster and have higher bioerosion rates in a high CO2 future than at present, even with significant bleaching. Assuming that our findings hold for excavating sponges in general, increased sponge biomass coupled with accelerated bioerosion may push coral reefs towards net erosion and negative carbonate budgets in the future. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Potential of solar domestic hot water systems in rural areas for greenhouse gas emission reduction in Poland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skowronski, P.; Wisniewski, G.

Application of solar energy for preparing domestic hot water is one of the easiest methods of utilization of this energy. At least part of the needs for warm tap water could be covered by solar systems. At present, mainly coal is used for water heating at dwellings in rural areas in Poland. Warm tap water consumption will increase significantly in the future as standards of living are improved. This can result in the growth of electricity use and an increase in primary fuel consumption. Present and future methods of warm sanitary water generation in rural areas in Poland is discussed,more » and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are estimated. It is predicted that the emission of CO{sub 2} and NOx will increase. The emission of CO and CH{sub 4} will decrease because of changes in the structure of the final energy carriers used. The economic and market potentials of solar energy for preparing warm water in rural areas are discussed. It is estimated that solar systems can meet 30%-45% of the energy demand for warm water generation in rural areas at a reasonable cost, with a corresponding CO{sub 2} emission reduction. The rate of realization of the economic potential of solar water heaters depends on subsidies for the installation of equipment. 13 refs., 9 tabs.« less

Climate Sensitivity Controls Uncertainty in Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurgers, Guy; Ahlström, Anders; Arneth, Almut; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Smith, Benjamin

2018-05-01

For the 21st century, carbon cycle models typically project an increase of terrestrial carbon with increasing atmospheric CO2 and a decrease with the accompanying climate change. However, these estimates are poorly constrained, primarily because they typically rely on a limited number of emission and climate scenarios. Here we explore a wide range of combinations of CO2 rise and climate change and assess their likelihood with the climate change responses obtained from climate models. Our results demonstrate that the terrestrial carbon uptake depends critically on the climate sensitivity of individual climate models, representing a large uncertainty of model estimates. In our simulations, the terrestrial biosphere is unlikely to become a strong source of carbon with any likely combination of CO2 and climate change in the absence of land use change, but the fraction of the emissions taken up by the terrestrial biosphere will decrease drastically with higher emissions.

CO2 storage capacity estimation: Issues and development of standards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradshaw, J.; Bachu, S.; Bonijoly, D.; Burruss, R.; Holloway, S.; Christensen, N.P.; Mathiassen, O.M.

2007-01-01

Associated with the endeavours of geoscientists to pursue the promise that geological storage of CO2 has of potentially making deep cuts into greenhouse gas emissions, Governments around the world are dependent on reliable estimates of CO2 storage capacity and insightful indications of the viability of geological storage in their respective jurisdictions. Similarly, industry needs reliable estimates for business decisions regarding site selection and development. If such estimates are unreliable, and decisions are made based on poor advice, then valuable resources and time could be wasted. Policies that have been put in place to address CO2 emissions could be jeopardised. Estimates need to clearly state the limitations that existed (data, time, knowledge) at the time of making the assessment and indicate the purpose and future use to which the estimates should be applied. A set of guidelines for estimation of storage capacity will greatly assist future deliberations by government and industry on the appropriateness of geological storage of CO2 in different geological settings and political jurisdictions. This work has been initiated under the auspices of the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (www.cslforum.org), and it is intended that it will be an ongoing taskforce to further examine issues associated with storage capacity estimation. Crown Copyright ?? 2007.

Policy Choice for Urban Low-carbon transportation in Beijing: Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu

2016-04-01

Beijing is a fast developing megacity with serious traffic problems, such as high energy consumption, high CO2 emission and traffic congestion. The coming 13th Five-Year Plan for Beijing economic and social development will focus on the low-carbon transportation policy to achieve the urban traffic sustainable development. In order to improve the feasibility of urban low-carbon transportation policies, this paper analyzes the future trends of CO2 emissions from transportation of Beijing. Firstly, five policies scenarios are developed according to the coming Beijing 13th Five-Year Plan, including the "Business As Usual (BAU)", the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)", the "New Energy Vehicle(NEV)", the "Active Transportation(AT)", the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" and the "Hybrid Policy(HP)". Then the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP model) framework is adopted to estimate CO2 emission under given policies scenarios up to year 2020 and analyze the implications. The results demonstrate that the low-carbon transportation policies can reduce CO2 emission effectively. Specifically, the "Hybrid Policy(HP)" has the best performance. In terms of single policy effect, the "Private Car Regulation(PCR)" comes first followed by the "Public Transportation Priority(PTP)".

Real-time monitoring of emissions from monoethanolamine-based industrial scale carbon capture facilities.

PubMed

Zhu, Liang; Schade, Gunnar Wolfgang; Nielsen, Claus Jørgen

2013-12-17

We demonstrate the capabilities and properties of using Proton Transfer Reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometry (PTR-ToF-MS) to real-time monitor gaseous emissions from industrial scale amine-based carbon capture processes. The benchmark monoethanolamine (MEA) was used as an example of amines needing to be monitored from carbon capture facilities, and to describe how the measurements may be influenced by potentially interfering species in CO2 absorber stack discharges. On the basis of known or expected emission compositions, we investigated the PTR-ToF-MS MEA response as a function of sample flow humidity, ammonia, and CO2 abundances, and show that all can exhibit interferences, thus making accurate amine measurements difficult. This warrants a proper sample pretreatment, and we show an example using a dilution with bottled zero air of 1:20 to 1:10 to monitor stack gas concentrations at the CO2 Technology Center Mongstad (TCM), Norway. Observed emissions included many expected chemical species, dominantly ammonia and acetaldehyde, but also two new species previously not reported but emitted in significant quantities. With respect to concerns regarding amine emissions, we show that accurate amine quantifications in the presence of water vapor, ammonia, and CO2 become feasible after proper sample dilution, thus making PTR-ToF-MS a viable technique to monitor future carbon capture facility emissions, without conventional laborious sample pretreatment.

Responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to experimental warming in wheat season under conventional tillage and no-tillage fields.

PubMed

Tu, Chun; Li, Fadong

2017-04-01

Understanding the effects of warming on greenhouse gas (GHG, such as N 2 O, CH 4 and CO 2 ) feedbacks to climate change represents the major environmental issue. However, little information is available on how warming effects on GHG fluxes in farmland of North China Plain (NCP). An infrared warming simulation experiment was used to assess the responses of N 2 O, CH 4 and CO 2 to warming in wheat season of 2012-2014 from conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT) systems. The results showed that warming increased cumulative N 2 O emission by 7.7% in CT but decreased it by 9.7% in NT fields (p<0.05). Cumulative CH 4 uptake and CO 2 emission were increased by 28.7%-51.7% and 6.3%-15.9% in both two tillage systems, respectively (p<0.05). The stepwise regressions relationship between GHG fluxes and soil temperature and soil moisture indicated that the supply soil moisture due to irrigation and precipitation would enhance the positive warming effects on GHG fluxes in two wheat seasons. However, in 2013, the long-term drought stress due to infrared warming and less precipitation decreased N 2 O and CO 2 emission in warmed treatments. In contrast, warming during this time increased CH 4 emission from deep soil depth. Across two years wheat seasons, warming significantly decreased by 30.3% and 63.9% sustained-flux global warming potential (SGWP) of N 2 O and CH 4 expressed as CO 2 equivalent in CT and NT fields, respectively. However, increase in soil CO 2 emission indicated that future warming projection might provide positive feedback between soil C release and global warming in NCP. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Hydrogen/Air Fuel Nozzle Emissions Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Timothy D.

2001-01-01

The use of hydrogen combustion for aircraft gas turbine engines provides significant opportunities to reduce harmful exhaust emissions. Hydrogen has many advantages (no CO2 production, high reaction rates, high heating value, and future availability), along with some disadvantages (high current cost of production and storage, high volume per BTU, and an unknown safety profile when in wide use). One of the primary reasons for switching to hydrogen is the elimination of CO2 emissions. Also, with hydrogen, design challenges such as fuel coking in the fuel nozzle and particulate emissions are no longer an issue. However, because it takes place at high temperatures, hydrogen-air combustion can still produce significant levels of NOx emissions. Much of the current research into conventional hydrocarbon-fueled aircraft gas turbine combustors is focused on NOx reduction methods. The Zero CO2 Emission Technology (ZCET) hydrogen combustion project will focus on meeting the Office of Aerospace Technology goal 2 within pillar one for Global Civil Aviation reducing the emissions of future aircraft by a factor of 3 within 10 years and by a factor of 5 within 25 years. Recent advances in hydrocarbon-based gas turbine combustion components have expanded the horizons for fuel nozzle development. Both new fluid designs and manufacturing technologies have led to the development of fuel nozzles that significantly reduce aircraft emissions. The goal of the ZCET program is to mesh the current technology of Lean Direct Injection and rocket injectors to provide quick mixing, low emissions, and high-performance fuel nozzle designs. An experimental program is planned to investigate the fuel nozzle concepts in a flametube test rig. Currently, a hydrogen system is being installed in cell 23 at NASA Glenn Research Center's Research Combustion Laboratory. Testing will be conducted on a variety of fuel nozzle concepts up to combustion pressures of 350 psia and inlet air temperatures of 1200 F. Computational fluid dynamics calculations, with the Glenn developed National Combustor Code, are being performed to optimize the fuel nozzle designs.

Simulated effect of calcification feedback on atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Zhang, Han; Cao, Long

2016-01-01

Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 reduces pH and saturation state of calcium carbonate materials of seawater, which could reduce the calcification rate of some marine organisms, triggering a negative feedback on the growth of atmospheric CO2. We quantify the effect of this CO2-calcification feedback by conducting a series of Earth system model simulations that incorporate different parameterization schemes describing the dependence of calcification rate on saturation state of CaCO3. In a scenario with SRES A2 CO2 emission until 2100 and zero emission afterwards, by year 3500, in the simulation without CO2-calcification feedback, model projects an accumulated ocean CO2 uptake of 1462 PgC, atmospheric CO2 of 612 ppm, and surface pH of 7.9. Inclusion of CO2-calcification feedback increases ocean CO2 uptake by 9 to 285 PgC, reduces atmospheric CO2 by 4 to 70 ppm, and mitigates the reduction in surface pH by 0.003 to 0.06, depending on the form of parameterization scheme used. It is also found that the effect of CO2-calcification feedback on ocean carbon uptake is comparable and could be much larger than the effect from CO2-induced warming. Our results highlight the potentially important role CO2-calcification feedback plays in ocean carbon cycle and projections of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. PMID:26838480

Photosynthesis and isoprene emission from trees along an urban-rural gradient in Texas.

PubMed

Lahr, Eleanor C; Schade, Gunnar W; Crossett, Caitlin C; Watson, Matthew R

2015-11-01

Isoprene emission is an important mechanism for improving the thermotolerance of plant photosystems as temperatures increase. In this study, we measured photosynthesis and isoprene emission in trees along an urban-rural gradient that serves as a proxy for climate change, to understand daily and seasonal responses to changes in temperature and other environmental variables. Leaf-level gas exchange and basal isoprene emission of post oak (Quercus stellata) and sweet gum (Liquidambar styraciflua) were recorded at regular intervals over an entire growing season at urban, suburban, and rural sites in eastern Texas. In addition, the temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration experienced by leaves were experimentally manipulated in spring, early summer, and late summer. We found that trees experienced lower stomatal conductance and photosynthesis and higher isoprene emission, at the urban and suburban sites compared to the rural site. Path analysis indicated a daily positive effect of isoprene emission on photosynthesis, but unexpectedly, higher isoprene emission from urban trees was not associated with improved photosynthesis as temperatures increased during the growing season. Furthermore, urban trees experienced relatively higher isoprene emission at high CO2 concentrations, while isoprene emission was suppressed at the other sites. These results suggest that isoprene emission may be less beneficial in urban, and potentially future, environmental conditions, particularly if higher temperatures override the suppressive effects of high CO2 on isoprene emission. These are important considerations for modeling future biosphere-atmosphere interactions and for understanding tree physiological responses to climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How will SOA change in the future?: SOA IN THE FUTURE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Guangxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Zhou, Cheng

2016-02-17

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) plays a significant role in the Earth system by altering its radiative balance. Here we use an Earth system model coupled with an explicit SOA formation module to estimate the response of SOA concentrations to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, and human land use in the future. We find that climate change is the major driver for SOA change under the representative concentration pathways for the 8.5 future scenario. Climate change increases isoprene emission rate by 18% with the effect of temperature increases outweighing that of the CO2 inhibition effect. Annual mean global SOA mass ismore » increased by 25% as a result of climate change. However, anthropogenic emissions and land use change decrease SOA. The net effect is that future global SOA burden in 2100 is nearly the same as that of the present day. The SOA concentrations over the Northern Hemisphere are predicted to decline in the future due to the control of sulfur emissions.« less

Seventeen years of monitoring diffuse CO2 emission from the Tenerife North-West Rift Zone (NWRZ) volcano, Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padilla, Germán D.; Evans, Bethany J.; Provis, Aaron R.; Asensio, María; Alonso, Mar; Calvo, David; Hernández, Pedro; Pérez, Nemesio M.

2017-04-01

Tenerife together and Gran Canaria are the central islands of the Canarian archipelago, which have developed a central volcanic complex characterized by the eruption of differentiated magmas. Tenerife is the largest of the Canary Islands (2100 km2) and at present, the North-West Rift-Zone (NWRZ) is one of the most active volcanic structures of the three volcanic rift-zone of the island, which has hosted two historical eruptions (Arenas Negras in 1706 and Chinyero in 1909). In order to monitor the volcanic activity of NWRZ, since the year 2000, 49 soil CO2 efflux surveys have been performed at NWRZ (more than 300 observation sites each one) to evaluate the temporal an spatial variations of CO2 efflux and their relationships with the volcanic-seismic activity. Measurements were performed in accordance with the accumulation chamber method. Spatial distribution maps were constructed following the sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) procedure. To quantify the total CO2 emission from the studied area, 100 simulations for each survey have been performed. We report herein the results of the last diffuse CO2 efflux surveys at the NWRZ undertaken in July and October 2016 to constrain the total CO2 output from the studied area. During July and October 2016 surveys, soil CO2 efflux values ranged from non-detectable up to 32.4 and 53.7 g m-2 d-1, respectively. The total diffuse CO2 output released to atmosphere were estimated at 255 ± 9 and 338 ± 18 t d-1, respectively, values higher than the background CO2 emission estimated on 144 t d-1. Since 2000, soil CO2 efflux values have ranged from non-detectable up to 141 g m-2 d-1, with the highest values measured in May 2005 whereas total CO2 output ranged between 52 and 867 t d-1. Long-term variations in the total CO2 output have shown a temporal correlation with the onsets of seismic activity at Tenerife, supporting unrest of the volcanic system, as is also suggested by anomalous seismic activity recorded in the studied area during April 22-29, 2004 and also during October 2-3, 2016. Spatial distribution of soil CO2 efflux values also showed changes in magnitude and amplitude, with higher CO2 efflux values measured along a trending WNW-ESE zone. Subsurface magma movement is proposed as a cause for the observed changes in the total output of diffuse CO2 emission as well as for the spatial distribution of soil CO2 efflux. The increasing trend of total CO2 output suggests increasing pressurization of the volcanic-hydrothermal system, a mechanism capable of triggering dyke intrusion along the NWRZ of Tenerife in the near future or futures changes in the seismicity. This study demonstrates the importance of performing soil CO2 efflux surveys as an effective surveillance volcanic tool.

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

PubMed

Matsuno, Taroh; Maruyama, Koki; Tsutsui, Junichi

2012-01-01

Following Part 1, a comparison of CO(2)-emissions pathways between "zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)" and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO(2) emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint.

Does the high–tech industry consistently reduce CO{sub 2} emissions? Results from nonparametric additive regression model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Bin; Research Center of Applied Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013; Lin, Boqiang, E-mail: bqlin@xmu.edu.cn

China is currently the world's largest carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emitter. Moreover, total energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in China will continue to increase due to the rapid growth of industrialization and urbanization. Therefore, vigorously developing the high–tech industry becomes an inevitable choice to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions at the moment or in the future. However, ignoring the existing nonlinear links between economic variables, most scholars use traditional linear models to explore the impact of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions from an aggregate perspective. Few studies have focused on nonlinear relationships and regional differences in China. Basedmore » on panel data of 1998–2014, this study uses the nonparametric additive regression model to explore the nonlinear effect of the high–tech industry from a regional perspective. The estimated results show that the residual sum of squares (SSR) of the nonparametric additive regression model in the eastern, central and western regions are 0.693, 0.054 and 0.085 respectively, which are much less those that of the traditional linear regression model (3.158, 4.227 and 7.196). This verifies that the nonparametric additive regression model has a better fitting effect. Specifically, the high–tech industry produces an inverted “U–shaped” nonlinear impact on CO{sub 2} emissions in the eastern region, but a positive “U–shaped” nonlinear effect in the central and western regions. Therefore, the nonlinear impact of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions in the three regions should be given adequate attention in developing effective abatement policies. - Highlights: • The nonlinear effect of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions was investigated. • The high–tech industry yields an inverted “U–shaped” effect in the eastern region. • The high–tech industry has a positive “U–shaped” nonlinear effect in other regions. • The linear impact of the high–tech industry in the eastern region is the strongest.« less

Sub-arctic Wetland Greenhouse Gases (CO2, CH4 & N2O) Emissions are Driven by Interactions of Environmental Controls and Herbivore Grazers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelsey, K.; Leffler, A. J.; Beard, K. H.; Choi, R. T.; Welker, J. M.

2015-12-01

Climate change is increasing temperatures, altering precipitation regimes and causing earlier growing seasons, particularly at northern latitudes. Such changes in local environmental conditions have the potential to affect biogeochemical cycling including the exchange of greenhouses gases between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere. In addition to the effects of these environmental controls, animals such as migratory geese also influence biogeochemical cycles through grazing, trampling and delivering nutrient-rich fecal matter. In this work we aimed to quantify how local environmental conditions and the presence of grazing interact as drivers of emissions of three key greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4 and N2O, in coastal wetlands of the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta. We explored the magnitude of emissions across gradients of soil temperature and water table depth, and across vegetation types related to the presence of grazing, ranging from no vegetation through grazed and ungrazed vegetation. We also investigated emissions from grazed areas using experimental manipulations of the timing of grazing and advancement of the growing season. We found that local environmental conditions and use by grazers exert interacting controls on emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O. Emissions of CO2 and CH4 were positively related to soil temperature and CH4 emissions were inversely related to water table depth, but the relationship varied by vegetation type. Net emissions of CO2 were greatest in ungrazed vegetation types (6.62 umols CO2 m-2 sec-1; p=0.0007) whereas CH4 emissions were greatest in the grazed vegetation (122.56 nmols CH4 m-2 sec-1; p=0.037). Flux of N2O was less than 1 nmol N2O m-2 sec-1 across all landscape positions under typical grazing and temperature conditions, but emissions were stimulated to over 10 nmols m-2 sec-1 when grazing occurred early relative to a typical season. Our results indicate that environmental conditions and the presence of migratory herbivores are both important controls on gas fluxes. Future climate change may alter regional gas flux and biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks both via direct environmental drivers and through climate-driven changes to populations or habits of grazers that also exert important controls on biogeochemical cycling in this region.

Fluxes of CH4 and CO2 from soil and termite mounds in south Sudanian savanna of Burkina Faso (West Africa)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brümmer, Christian; Papen, Hans; Wassmann, Reiner; Brüggemann, Nicolas

2009-03-01

The contribution of West African savanna ecosystems to global greenhouse gas budgets is highly uncertain. In this study we quantified soil-atmosphere CH4 and CO2 fluxes in the southwest of Burkina Faso from June to September 2005 and from April to September 2006 at four different agricultural fields planted with sorghum (n = 2), cotton, and peanut and at a natural savanna site with termite (Cubitermes fungifaber) mounds. During the rainy season both CH4 uptake and CH4 emission were observed in the savanna, which was on average a CH4 source of 2.79 and 2.28 kg CH4-C ha-1 a-1 in 2005 and 2006, respectively. The crop sites were an average CH4 sink of -0.67 and -0.70 kg CH4-C ha-1 a-1 in the 2 years, without significant seasonal variation. Mean annual soil respiration ranged between 3.86 and 5.82 t CO2-C ha-1 a-1 in the savanna and between 2.50 and 4.51 t CO2-C ha-1 a-1 at the crop sites. CH4 emission from termite mounds was 2 orders of magnitude higher than soil CH4 emissions, whereas termite CO2 emissions were of the same order of magnitude as soil CO2 emissions. Termite CH4 and CO2 release in the savanna contributed 8.8% and 0.4% to the total soil CH4 and CO2 emissions, respectively. At the crop sites, where termite mounds had been almost completely removed because of land use change, termite fluxes were insignificant. Mound density-based upscaling of termite CH4 fluxes resulted in a global termite CH4 source of 0.9 Tg a-1, which corresponds to 0.15% of the total global CH4 budget of 582 Tg a-1, hence significantly lower than those obtained previously by biomass-based calculations. This study emphasizes that land use change, which is of high relevance in this region, has particularly affected soil CH4 fluxes in the past and might still do so in the future.

Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases until 2050: technical mitigation potentials and costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purohit, Pallav; Hoglund-Isaksson, Lena

2016-04-01

The anthropogenic fluorinated (F-gases) greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly in recent years and are estimated to rise further in response to increased demand for cooling services and the phase out of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) under the Montreal Protocol. F-gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) are potent greenhouse gases, with a global warming effect up to 22,800 times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2). This study presents estimates of current and future global emissions of F-gases, their technical mitigation potential and associated costs for the period 2005 to 2050. The analysis uses the GAINS model framework to estimate emissions, mitigation potentials and costs for all major sources of anthropogenic F-gases for 162 countries/regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. For each region, 18 emission source sectors with mitigation potentials and costs were identified. Global F-gas emissions are estimated at 0.7 Gt CO2eq in 2005 with an expected increase to about 3.6 Gt CO2eq in 2050. There are extensive opportunities to reduce emissions by over 95 percent primarily through replacement with existing low GWP substances. The initial results indicate that at least half of the mitigation potential is attainable at a cost of less than 20€ per t CO2eq, while almost 90 percent reduction is attainable at less than 100€ per t CO2eq. Currently, several policy proposals have been presented to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially curb global HFC use. We analyze the technical potentials and costs associated with the HFC mitigation required under the different proposed Montreal Protocol amendments.

Carbon dioxide sources from Alaska driven by increasing early winter respiration from Arctic tundra

PubMed Central

Lindaas, Jakob; Benmergui, Joshua; Luus, Kristina A.; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Daube, Bruce C.; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Karion, Anna; Miller, John B.; Miller, Scot M.; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Randerson, James T.; Sweeney, Colm; Thoning, Kirk; Veraverbeke, Sander; Miller, Charles E.; Wofsy, Steven C.

2017-01-01

High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012–2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO2 emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO2 in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate. PMID:28484001

Carbon dioxide sources from Alaska driven by increasing early winter respiration from Arctic tundra.

PubMed

Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Benmergui, Joshua; Luus, Kristina A; Chang, Rachel Y-W; Daube, Bruce C; Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Henderson, John M; Karion, Anna; Miller, John B; Miller, Scot M; Parazoo, Nicholas C; Randerson, James T; Sweeney, Colm; Tans, Pieter; Thoning, Kirk; Veraverbeke, Sander; Miller, Charles E; Wofsy, Steven C

2017-05-23

High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO 2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO 2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012-2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO 2 emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO 2 in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO 2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate.

Carbon dioxide sources from Alaska driven by increasing early winter respiration from Arctic tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Benmergui, Joshua; Luus, Kristina A.; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Daube, Bruce C.; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Henderson, John M.; Karion, Anna; Miller, John B.; Miller, Scot M.; Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Randerson, James T.; Sweeney, Colm; Tans, Pieter; Thoning, Kirk; Veraverbeke, Sander; Miller, Charles E.; Wofsy, Steven C.

2017-05-01

High-latitude ecosystems have the capacity to release large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in response to increasing temperatures, representing a potentially significant positive feedback within the climate system. Here, we combine aircraft and tower observations of atmospheric CO2 with remote sensing data and meteorological products to derive temporally and spatially resolved year-round CO2 fluxes across Alaska during 2012-2014. We find that tundra ecosystems were a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere annually, with especially high rates of respiration during early winter (October through December). Long-term records at Barrow, AK, suggest that CO2 emission rates from North Slope tundra have increased during the October through December period by 73% ± 11% since 1975, and are correlated with rising summer temperatures. Together, these results imply increasing early winter respiration and net annual emission of CO2 in Alaska, in response to climate warming. Our results provide evidence that the decadal-scale increase in the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal cycle may be linked with increasing biogenic emissions in the Arctic, following the growing season. Early winter respiration was not well simulated by the Earth System Models used to forecast future carbon fluxes in recent climate assessments. Therefore, these assessments may underestimate the carbon release from Arctic soils in response to a warming climate.

Biotransformation of carbon dioxide in bioelectrochemical systems: State of the art and future prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajracharya, Suman; Srikanth, Sandipam; Mohanakrishna, Gunda; Zacharia, Renju; Strik, David PBTB; Pant, Deepak

2017-07-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) utilization/recycling for the production of chemicals and gaseous/liquid energy-carriers is a way to moderate the rising CO2 in the atmosphere. One of the possible solutions for the CO2 sequestration is the electrochemical reduction of this stable molecule to useful fuel/products. Nevertheless, the surface chemistry of CO2 reduction is a challenge due to the presence of large energy barriers, requiring noticeable catalysis. The recent approach of microbial electrocatalysis of CO2 reduction has promising prospects to reduce the carbon level sustainably, taking full advantage of CO2-derived chemical commodities. We review the currently investigated bioelectrochemical approaches that could possibly be implemented to enable the handling of CO2 emissions. This review covers the most recent advances in the bioelectrochemical approaches of CO2 transformations in terms of biocatalysts development and process design. Furthermore, the extensive research on carbon fixation and conversion to different value added chemicals is reviewed. The review concludes by detailing the key challenges and future prospects that could enable economically feasible microbial electrosynthesis technology.

CO2 and CH4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhuang, Q.; Melillo, J.M.; Sarofim, M.C.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Felzer, B.S.; Sokolov, A.; Prinn, R.G.; Steudler, P.A.; Hu, S.

2006-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high latitudes (above 50??N) exchange large amounts of CO2 and CH4 with the atmosphere each year. Here we use a process-based model to estimate the budget of CO 2 and CH4 of the region for current climate conditions and for future scenarios by considering effects of permafrost dynamics, CO 2 fertilization of photosynthesis and fire. We find that currently the region is a net source of carbon to the atmosphere at 276 Tg C yr -1. We project that throughout the 21st century, the region will most likely continue as a net source of carbon and the source will increase by up to 473 Tg C yr-1 by the end of the century compared to the current emissions. However our coupled carbon and climate model simulations show that these emissions will exert relatively small radiative forcing on global climate system compared to large amounts of anthropogenic emissions. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

A Study on the Optimal Generation Mix Based on Portfolio Theory with Considering the Basic Condition for Power Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

This paper presents a novel method to analyze the optimal generation mix based on portfolio theory with considering the basic condition for power supply, which means that electricity generation corresponds with load curve. The optimization of portfolio is integrated with the calculation of a capacity factor of each generation in order to satisfy the basic condition for power supply. Besides, each generation is considered to be an asset, and risks of the generation asset both in its operation period and construction period are considered. Environmental measures are evaluated through restriction of CO2 emissions, which are indicated by CO2 price. Numerical examples show the optimal generation mix according to risks such as the deviation of capacity factor of nuclear power or restriction of CO2 emissions, the possibility of introduction of clean coal technology (IGCC, CCS) or renewable energy, and so on. The results of this work will be possibly applied as setting the target of the generation mix for the future according to prospects of risks of each generation and restrictions of CO2 emissions.

The issues of energy and carbon cycle: new perspectives for assessing the environmental impact of animal waste utilization.

PubMed

Ceotto, E

2005-01-01

This paper focuses on the benefits of an efficient use of animal waste from the standpoint of curbing the rise of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) in the atmosphere. An effective use of animal waste resources might provide a partial, but still important, contribution in reducing net CO(2) emissions. In particular: the fulfillment of nutrient requirements of crop plants growing in non-limiting conditions and thus sequestering CO(2) at their potential level; the chance of diminishing the use of fossil energy, and related CO(2) emissions, required for manufacturing industrial fertilizers; the possibility of enhancing carbon sequestration in agricultural soils by the application of farmyard manure. The future success of agriculture in providing these ecosystem services can only be achieved with a changed social awareness of the links between sustainable land use and global environmental change.

Control Strategy Tool (CoST)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The EPA Control Strategy Tool (CoST) is a software tool for projecting potential future control scenarios, their effects on emissions and estimated costs. This tool uses the NEI and the Control Measures Dataset as key inputs. CoST outputs are projections of future control scenarios.

Current and future emissions of primary pollutants from coal-fired power plants in Shaanxi, China.

PubMed

Xu, Yong; Hu, Jianlin; Ying, Qi; Hao, Hongke; Wang, Dexiang; Zhang, Hongliang

2017-10-01

A high-resolution inventory of primary atmospheric pollutants from coal-fired power plants in Shaanxi in 2012 was built based on a detailed database compiled at unit level involving unit capacity, boiler size and type, commission time, corresponding control technologies, and average coal quality of 72 power plants. The pollutants included SO 2 , NO x , fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), inhalable particulate matter (PM 10 ), organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC). Emission factors for SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 and PM 10 were adopted from standardized official promulgation, supplemented by those from local studies. The estimated annual emissions of SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , PM 10 , EC, OC, CO and NMVOC were 152.4, 314.8, 16.6, 26.4, 0.07, 0.27, 64.9 and 2.5kt, respectively. Small units (<100MW), which accounted for ~60% of total unit numbers, had less coal consumption but higher emission rates compared to medium (≥100MW and <300MW) and large units (≥300MW). Main factors affecting SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 and PM 10 emissions were decontamination efficiency, sulfur content and ash content of coal. Weinan and Xianyang were the two cities with the highest emissions, and Guanzhong Plain had the largest emission density. Despite the projected growth of coal consumption, emissions would decrease in 2030 due to improvement in emission control technologies and combustion efficiencies. SO 2 and NO x emissions would experience significant reduction by ~81% and ~84%, respectively. PM 2.5 , PM 10 , EC and OC would be decreased by ~43% and CO and NMVOC would be reduced by ~16%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas

PubMed Central

Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

2017-01-01

This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the “well below 2°C” warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work’s primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2. PMID:28628676

A human-scale perspective on global warming: Zero emission year and personal quotas.

PubMed

de la Fuente, Alberto; Rojas, Maisa; Mac Lean, Claudia

2017-01-01

This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the "well below 2°C" warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work's primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the "well below 2°C" and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2.

Simulating effects of changing climate and CO(2) emissions on soil carbon pools at the Hubbard Brook experimental forest.

PubMed

Dib, Alain E; Johnson, Chris E; Driscoll, Charles T; Fahey, Timothy J; Hayhoe, Katharine

2014-05-01

Carbon (C) sequestration in forest biomass and soils may help decrease regional C footprints and mitigate future climate change. The efficacy of these practices must be verified by monitoring and by approved calculation methods (i.e., models) to be credible in C markets. Two widely used soil organic matter models - CENTURY and RothC - were used to project changes in SOC pools after clear-cutting disturbance, as well as under a range of future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2) ) scenarios. Data from the temperate, predominantly deciduous Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, USA, were used to parameterize and validate the models. Clear-cutting simulations demonstrated that both models can effectively simulate soil C dynamics in the northern hardwood forest when adequately parameterized. The minimum postharvest SOC predicted by RothC occurred in postharvest year 14 and was within 1.5% of the observed minimum, which occurred in year 8. CENTURY predicted the postharvest minimum SOC to occur in year 45, at a value 6.9% greater than the observed minimum; the slow response of both models to disturbance suggests that they may overestimate the time required to reach new steady-state conditions. Four climate change scenarios were used to simulate future changes in SOC pools. Climate-change simulations predicted increases in SOC by as much as 7% at the end of this century, partially offsetting future CO(2) emissions. This sequestration was the product of enhanced forest productivity, and associated litter input to the soil, due to increased temperature, precipitation and CO(2) . The simulations also suggested that considerable losses of SOC (8-30%) could occur if forest vegetation at HBEF does not respond to changes in climate and CO(2) levels. Therefore, the source/sink behavior of temperate forest soils likely depends on the degree to which forest growth is stimulated by new climate and CO(2) conditions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Measurement of air pollutant emissions from Lome, Cotonou and Accra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, James; Vaughan, Adam; Nelson, Bethany; Young, Stuart; Evans, Mathew; Morris, Eleanor; Ladkin, Russel

2017-04-01

High concentrations of airborne pollutants (e.g. the oxides of nitrogen, sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide) in existing and evolving cities along the Guinea Coast cause respiratory diseases with potentially large costs to human health and the economic capacity of the local workforce. It is important to understand the rate of emission of such pollutants in order to model current and future air quality and provide guidance to the potential outcomes of air pollution abatement strategies. Often dated technologies and poor emission control strategies lead to substantial uncertainties in emission estimates calculated from vehicle and population number density statistics. The unreliable electrical supply in cities in the area has led to an increased reliance on small-scale diesel powered generators and these potentially present a significant source of emissions. The uncontrolled open incineration of waste adds a further very poorly constrained emission source within the cities. The DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project involved a field campaign which used highly instrumented aircraft capable of in situ measurements of a range of air pollutants. Seven flights using the UK British Antarctic Survey's Twin Otter aircraft specifically targeted air pollution emissions from cities in West Africa (4 x Accra, Ghana; 2 x Lome, Togo and 1 x Cotonou, Benin). Measurements of NO, NO2, SO2, CO, CH4 and CO2 were made at multiple altitudes upwind and downwind of the cities, with the mass balance technique used to calculate emission rates. These are then compared to the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) estimates. Ultimately the data will be used to inform on and potentially improve the emission estimates, which in turn should lead to better forecasting of air pollution in West African cities and help guide future air pollution abatement strategy.

Correlations for CO{sub 2} production from combustion of Turkish coal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oezdogan, S.

1996-12-31

Carbon dioxide is identified as the major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. About 75% of the anthropogenic CO{sub 2} emissions are due to energy use, and primarily due to fossil-fuel combustion. Future patterns of energy use will dominate the global climate change. Within this frame, comparative evaluation of various carbon-based primary energy sources and related utilization options is of utmost importance. The amount of CO{sub 2} emission per unit energy production is considered as the mutual basis of evaluation among the fuel options. In this study, 39 Turkish coals were selected to represent the broad spectrum of Turkish coal characteristics.more » The lower heating values of the samples range from 6.8 to 30.6 MJ/kg on the as-received basis. The corresponding higher heating value range is 8.2 to 31.6 MJ/kg. The volatile matter to fixed carbon ratios of the selected coals change between 0.520 and 2.05 whereas the C to H weight ratios of dry coals cover a range from 16.4 to 9.8. The exact amount of CO{sub 2} emission per unit heating value is calculated from experimental data. The analysis of the results indicates that linear correlations exist between CO{sub 2} emissions per unit amount lower or higher heating value and the inverse of heating values. The calculated standard errors of estimate are within acceptable limits. The average and maximum errors are 3% and 11%, respectively. The developed formulas are applied to different ranks of coal from Turkey and abroad and results are interpreted.« less

Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States.

PubMed

Trail, Marcus A; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Liu, Peng; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Hu, Yongtao; Rudokas, Jason R; Miller, Paul J; Nenes, Athanasios; Russell, Armistead G

2015-04-21

Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

Plant acclimation impacts carbon allocation to isoprene emissions: evidence from past to future CO2 levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Hugo J.; van der Laan, Annick; Dekker, Stefan C.; Holzinger, Rupert

2016-04-01

Isoprene (C5H8) is produced in plant leaves as a side product of photosynthesis, whereby approximately 0.1-2.0% of the photosynthetic carbon uptake is released back into the atmosphere via isoprene emissions. Isoprene biosynthesis is thought to alleviate oxidative stress, specifically in warm, dry and high-light environments. Moreover, isoprene biosynthesis is influenced by atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the short term (weeks) via acclimation in photosynthetic biochemistry. In order to understand the effects of CO2-induced climate change on carbon allocation in plants it is therefore important to quantify how isoprene biosynthesis and emissions are effected by both short-term responses and long-term acclimation to rising atmospheric CO2 levels. A promising development for modelling CO2-induced changes in isoprene emissions is the Leaf-Energetic-Status model (referred to as LES-model hereafter, see Harrison et al., 2013 and Morfopoulos et al., 2014). This model simulates isoprene emissions based on the hypothesis that isoprene biosynthesis depends on the imbalance between the photosynthetic electron supply of reducing power and the electron demands of carbon fixation. In addition to environmental conditions, this imbalance is determined by the photosynthetic electron transport capacity (Jmax) and the maximum carboxylation capacity of Rubisco (V cmax). Here we compare predictions of the LES-model with observed isoprene emission responses of Quercus robur (pedunculate oak) specimen that acclimated to CO2 levels representative of the last glacial, the present and the end of this century (200, 400 and 800 ppm, respectively) for two growing seasons. Plants were grown in walk-in growth chambers with tight control of light, temperature, humidity and CO2 concentrations. Photosynthetic biochemical parameters V cmax and Jmax were determined with a Licor LI-6400XT photosynthesis system. The relationship between photosynthesis and isoprene emissions was measured by coupling the photosynthesis system with a Proton-Transfer Reaction Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer. Our empirical results support the LES-model and show that the fractional allocation of carbon to isoprene biosynthesis is reduced in response to both short-term and long-term CO2 increases. This CO2 effect is most pronounced going from glacial to present CO2. In the short term, an increase in CO2 stimulates photosynthesis through an increase in Ci and marginally decreases isoprene production owing to an increase in the electron demand for carbon fixation. In the long-term, acclimation to rising CO2 leads to down regulation of both Jmax and V cmax, which modulates the stimulating effect of rising CO2 on photosynthesis. Specifically the down-regulation of Jmax reduces isoprene emissions at this time scale, whereas the down-regulation of V cmax has a marginal effect according to the LES-model. Our results highlight that biochemical acclimation to rising CO2 influences the allocation of carbon to isoprene biosynthesis. References Harrison, S. P. et al: Volatile isoprenoid emissions from plastid to planet, New Phytol., 197(1), 49-57, 2013. Morfopoulos, C. et al: A model of plant isoprene emission based on available reducing power captures responses to atmospheric CO2, New Phytol., 203(1), 125-139, 2014.

Is 2 Degrees Achievable? The Cold Turkey Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, S. E.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for collective international action to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2˚C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. How much would carbon dioxide emissions have to be reduced to achieve these objectives, or can these objectives even be achieved at all? These questions are examined using a global energy balance model to carry out a "cold turkey" experiment in which emissions from fossil fuel combustion are abruptly halted; this is a limiting case for any practically achievable gradual reduction in emissions. The model study halts emissions not just of CO2 but also of atmospheric aerosols and precursor gases. These aerosols are thought to be offsetting a substantial but highly uncertain fraction of the radiative forcing of anthropogenic CO2 by scattering solar radiation and by increasing cloud reflectivity. In contrast to CO2, which would persist in the atmosphere for decades to centuries, aerosols would be removed almost immediately after cessation of emissions. Consequently, at least in the early decades following abrupt cessation of emissions, net forcing and global temperature would likely increase, not decrease. The magnitude of the temperature increase that would ensue depends on Earth's climate sensitivity and current aerosol forcing. These quantities are quite uncertain but are strongly correlated through observational constraints. Within present uncertainty it cannot be stated with confidence whether the 2˚C target could be achieved even if emissions were abruptly halted. Future global CO2 emissions consistent with achieving the 2˚C target range from as much as 100 years at current emission rates if Earth's climate sensitivity is at the low end of the range estimated by the IPCC 2013 Assessment Report, to zero, the committed temperature increase already exceeding the 2˚C limit, if sensitivity is at the high end of the IPCC range. Figure. Global mean forcing and temperature response, for AR5 range of aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity, following abrupt cessation of emissions of CO2 and aerosols and precursor gases from fossil fuel combustion. Solid curves denote time-dependent forcing and response; dashed curves, response for CO2 maintained at its present value; dotted lines, instantaneous response.

Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

2014-05-01

Experimental work is an essential component in training future soil scientists. Soil CO2 emission is a key issue because of the potential impacts of this process on the greenhouse effect. The amount of organic carbon stored in soils worldwide is about 1600 gigatons (Gt) compared to 750 Gt in the atmosphere mostly in the form of CO2. Thus, if soil respiration increased slightly so that just 10% of the soil carbon pool was converted to CO2, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere could increase by one-fifth. General circulation model predictions indicate atmosphere warming between 2 and 5°C (IPCC 2007) and precipitation changes ranging from about -15 to +30%. Traditionally, release of CO2 was thought to occur only in an intracellular environment; however, recently CO2 emissions have been in irradiated soil, in the absence of microorganisms (Maire et al., 2013). Moreover, soil plays a role in the stabilization of respiration enzymes promoting CO2 release after microorganism death. Here, we propose to improve CO2 emission experiments commonly used in soil biology to investigate: 1) effects of climatic factors on soil CO2 emissions, and 2) rates of extracellular respiration in soils and how these rates are affected by environmental factors. Experiment designed to assess the effect of climate change can be conducted either in field conditions under different ecosystems (forest, grassland, cropland) or in a greenhouse using simple soil chambers. The interactions of climate change in CO2 emissions are investigated using climate-manipulation experiment that can be adapted to field or greenhouse conditions (e.g. Mc Daniel et al., 2013). The experimental design includes a control plot (without soil temperature and rain manipulation) a warming treatment as well as wetting and/or drying treatments. Plots are warmed to the target temperature by procedures such as infrared heaters (field) or radiant cable (greenhouse). To analyze extracellular respiration, rates of CO2 emissions from sterilized soils and their unsterilized counterparts are compared. Moreover, different pH treatments are compared to analyze how soil pH affects extracellular CO2 release. Students benefit from experimental learning. Practical courses, being either in the field or indoors are of vital importance to bring soil processes to life and to evaluate implications for environment and climate change. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 996 pp. Maire, V., G. Alvarez, J. Colombet, A. Comby, R. Despinasse, E. Dubreucq, M. Joly, A.-C. Lehours, V. Perrier, T. Shahzad, and S. Fontaine. 2013. An unknown oxidative metabolism substantially contributes to soil CO2 emissions. Biogeochemistry, 10, 1155-1167, 2013

A carbon cycle science update since IPCC AR-4.

PubMed

Dolman, A J; van der Werf, G R; van der Molen, M K; Ganssen, G; Erisman, J-W; Strengers, B

2010-01-01

We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are contradictory analyses whether an increase in atmospheric fraction, that might indicate a declining sink strength of ocean and/or land, exists; methane emissions are increasing, possibly through enhanced natural emission from northern wetland, methane emissions from dry plants are negligible; old-growth forest take up more carbon than expected from ecological equilibrium reasoning; tropical forest also take up more carbon than previously thought, however, for the global budget to balance, this would imply a smaller uptake in the northern forest; the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are increasingly better understood and bottom up and observation-based top down estimates are getting closer to each other; the North Atlantic and Southern ocean take up less CO2, but it is unclear whether this is part of the 'natural' decadal scale variability; large-scale fires and droughts, for instance in Amazonia, but also at Northern latitudes, have lead to significant decreases in carbon uptake on annual timescales; the extra uptake of CO2 stimulated by increased N-deposition is, from a greenhouse gas forcing perspective, counterbalanced by the related additional N2O emissions; the amount of carbon stored in permafrost areas appears much (two times) larger than previously thought; preservation of existing marine ecosystems could require a CO2 stabilization as low as 450 ppm; Dynamic Vegetation Models show a wide divergence for future carbon trajectories, uncertainty in the process description, lack of understanding of the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen-carbon interaction are major uncertainties.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

2013-07-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901-2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century, changes in natural vegetation composition caused a decreasing trend for monoterpene emissions. Future global isoprene and monoterpene emissions depend strongly on the climate and land-use scenarios considered. Over the 21st century, global isoprene emissions are simulated to either remain stable (RCP 4.5), or decrease further (RCP 8.5), with important differences depending on the underlying land-use scenario. Future monoterpene emissions are expected to continue their present decreasing trend for all scenarios, possibly stabilizing from 2050 onwards (RCP 4.5). These results demonstrate the importance to take both natural vegetation dynamics and anthropogenic changes in land-use into account when estimating past and future BVOC emissions. They also indicate that a future global increase in BVOC emissions is improbable.

Carbon emissions risk map from deforestation in the tropical Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ometto, J.; Soler, L. S.; Assis, T. D.; Oliveira, P. V.; Aguiar, A. P.

2011-12-01

Assis, Pedro Valle This work aims to estimate the carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon associated to the risk assessment of future land use change. The emissions are estimated by incorporating temporal deforestation dynamics, accounting for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity in the region, as well secondary forest growth dynamic in abandoned areas. The land cover change model that supported the risk assessment of deforestation, was run based on linear regressions. This method takes into account spatial heterogeneity of deforestation as the spatial variables adopted to fit the final regression model comprise: environmental aspects, economic attractiveness, accessibility and land tenure structure. After fitting a suitable regression models for each land cover category, the potential of each cell to be deforested (25x25km and 5x5 km of resolution) in the near future was used to calculate the risk assessment of land cover change. The carbon emissions model combines high-resolution new forest clear-cut mapping and four alternative sources of spatial information on biomass distribution for different vegetation types. The risk assessment map of CO2 emissions, was obtained by crossing the simulation results of the historical land cover changes to a map of aboveground biomass contained in the remaining forest. This final map represents the risk of CO2 emissions at 25x25km and 5x5 km until 2020, under a scenario of carbon emission reduction target.

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions—An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: A practical zero-emissions scenario

PubMed Central

MATSUNO, Taroh; MARUYAMA, Koki; TSUTSUI, Junichi

2012-01-01

Following Part 1, a comparison of CO2-emissions pathways between “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 ℃ above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO2 emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint. PMID:22850728

Biogeochemical responses of the carbon cycle to natural and human perturbations: Past, present, and future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ver, L.M.B.; Mackenzie, F.T.; Lerman, A.

In the past three centuries, human perturbations of the environment have affected the biogeochemical behavior of the global carbon cycle and that of the other three nutrient elements closely coupled to carbon: nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. The partitioning of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} among its various sinks in the past, for the present, and for projections into the near future is controlled by the interactions of these four elemental cycles within the major environmental domains of the land, atmosphere, coastal oceanic zone, and open ocean. The authors analyze the past, present, and future behavior of the global carbon cycle using themore » Terrestrial-Ocean-aTmosphere Ecosystem Model (TOTEM), a unique process-based model of the four global coupled biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. They find that during the past 300 yrs, anthropogenic CO{sub 2} was mainly stored in the atmosphere and in the open ocean. Human activities on land caused an enhanced loss of mass from the terrestrial organic matter reservoirs (phytomass and humus) mainly through deforestation and consequently increased humus remineralization, erosion, and transport to the coastal margins by rivers and runoff. Photosynthetic uptake by the terrestrial phytomass was enhanced owing to fertilization by increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations and supported by nutrients remineralized from organic matter. TOTEM results indicate that through most of the past 300 yrs, the loss of C from deforestation and other land-use activities was greater than the gain from the enhanced photosynthetic uptake. Since pre-industrial time (since 1700), the net flux of CO{sub 2} from the coastal waters has decreased by 40%, from 0.20 Gt C/yr to 0.12 Gt C/yr. TOTEM analyses of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations for the 21st century were based on the fossil-fuel emission projections of IPCC (business as usual scenario) and of the more restrictive UN 1997 Kyoto Protocol. By the mid-21st century, the projected atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations range from about 550 ppmv (TOTEM, based on IPCC projected emissions) to 510 ppmv (IPCC projection) and to 460 ppmv (TOTEM, based on the Kyoto Protocol reduced emissions).« less

Physiological advantages of dwarfing in surviving extinctions in high-CO2 oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garilli, Vittorio; Rodolfo-Metalpa, Riccardo; Scuderi, Danilo; Brusca, Lorenzo; Parrinello, Daniela; Rastrick, Samuel P. S.; Foggo, Andy; Twitchett, Richard J.; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Milazzo, Marco

2015-07-01

Excessive CO2 in the present-day ocean-atmosphere system is causing ocean acidification, and is likely to cause a severe biodiversity decline in the future, mirroring effects in many past mass extinctions. Fossil records demonstrate that organisms surviving such events were often smaller than those before, a phenomenon called the Lilliput effect. Here, we show that two gastropod species adapted to acidified seawater at shallow-water CO2 seeps were smaller than those found in normal pH conditions and had higher mass-specific energy consumption but significantly lower whole-animal metabolic energy demand. These physiological changes allowed the animals to maintain calcification and to partially repair shell dissolution. These observations of the long-term chronic effects of increased CO2 levels forewarn of changes we can expect in marine ecosystems as CO2 emissions continue to rise unchecked, and support the hypothesis that ocean acidification contributed to past extinction events. The ability to adapt through dwarfing can confer physiological advantages as the rate of CO2 emissions continues to increase.

Oxygenates from Electrochemical Reduction of CO2.

PubMed

Feng, Guanghui; Chen, Wei; Wang, Baiyin; Song, Yanfang; Li, Guihua; Fang, Jianhui; Wei, Wei; Sun, Yuhan

2018-05-29

Electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) driven by renewable electricity to chemicals and fuels is considered as an ideal approach that can alleviate both carbon emission and energy tension stresses. High-value chemicals such as oxygenates can be effectively produced from CO2 electroreduction, which is highly attractive for the great promotion of the economy and applicability of CO2 utilization. This review focuses the recent advancements on the CO2 electrochemical reduction to formic acid, methanol, ethanol, acetic acid, and other oxygenates. The related principles, influence factors, and typical catalysts are summarized. On the basis of the aforementioned discussions, we present the future prospects for further development of CO2 electroreduction to oxygenates. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Detecting small scale CO2 emission structures using OCO-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwandner, Florian M.; Eldering, Annmarie; Verhulst, Kristal R.; Miller, Charles E.; Nguyen, Hai M.; Oda, Tomohiro; O'Dell, Christopher; Rao, Preeti; Kahn, Brian; Crisp, David; Gunson, Michael R.; Sanchez, Robert M.; Ashok, Manasa; Pieri, David; Linick, Justin P.; Yuen, Karen

2016-04-01

Localized carbon dioxide (CO2) emission structures cover spatial domains of less than 50 km diameter and include cities and transportation networks, as well as fossil fuel production, upgrading and distribution infra-structure. Anthropogenic sources increasingly upset the natural balance between natural carbon sources and sinks. Mitigation of resulting climate change impacts requires management of emissions, and emissions management requires monitoring, reporting and verification. Space-borne measurements provide a unique opportunity to detect, quantify, and analyze small scale and point source emissions on a global scale. NASA's first satellite dedicated to atmospheric CO2 observation, the July 2014 launched Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2), now leads the afternoon constellation of satellites (A-Train). Its continuous swath of 2 to 10 km in width and eight footprints across can slice through coincident emission plumes and may provide momentary cross sections. First OCO-2 results demonstrate that we can detect localized source signals in the form of urban total column averaged CO2 enhancements of ~2 ppm against suburban and rural backgrounds. OCO-2's multi-sounding swath observing geometry reveals intra-urban spatial structures reflected in XCO2 data, previously unobserved from space. The transition from single-shot GOSAT soundings detecting urban/rural differences (Kort et al., 2012) to hundreds of soundings per OCO-2 swath opens up the path to future capabilities enabling urban tomography of greenhouse gases. For singular point sources like coal fired power plants, we have developed proxy detections of plumes using bands of imaging spectrometers with sensitivity to SO2 in the thermal infrared (ASTER). This approach provides a means to automate plume detection with subsequent matching and mining of OCO-2 data for enhanced detection efficiency and validation. © California Institute of Technology

Influences of Fuel Additive, Crude Palm and Waste Cooking Oil on Emission Characteristics of Small Diesel Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, Amir; Jaat, Norrizam; Manshoor, Bukhari; Zaman, Izzuddin; Sapit, Azwan; Razali, Azahari; Basharie, Mariam

2017-08-01

Major research has been conducted on the use of input products, such as rapeseed, canola, soybean, sunflower oil, waste cooking oil (WCO), crude palm oil (CPO) and crude jatropha oil as alternative fuels. Biodiesel is renewable, biodegradable and oxygenated, where it can be easily adopted by current existing conventional diesel engine without any major modification of the engine. To meet the future performance and emission regulations, is urged to improve the performance and exhaust emissions from biodiesel fuels. Hence, further investigation have been carried out on the emission characteristics of small diesel engine that fuelled by variant blending ratio of WCO and CPO with booster additive. For each of the biodiesel blends ratio from 5 to 15 percent volume which are WCO5, WCO10 and WCO15 for WCO biodiesel and CPO5, CPO10 and CPO15 for CPO biodiesel. The exhaust emissions were measured at engine speeds varied at 2000 rpm and 2500 rpm with different booster additive volume DRA (biodiesel without additive), DRB (0.2 ml) and DRC (0.4 ml). Emissions characteristics that had been measured were Hydrocarbon (HC), Carbon Monoxide (CO), Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Nitrogen Oxide (NOx), and smoke opacity. The results showed that increased of blending ratio with booster additive volume significantly decreased the CO emission, while increased in NOx and CO2 due to changes of fuel characteristics in biodiesel fuel blends.

An impact assessment of sustainable technologies for the Chinese urban residential sector at provincial level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Rui; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Kanamori, Yuko; Dai, Hancheng; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-01

Recently, energy use in the urban residential sector of China has drastically increased due to higher incomes and urbanization. The fossil fuels dominant energy supply has since worsened the air quality, especially in urban areas. In this study we estimate the future energy service demands in Chinese urban residential areas, and then use an AIM/Enduse model to evaluate the emission reduction potential of CO2, SO2, NOx and PM. Considering the climate diversity and its impact on household energy service demands, our analysis is down-scaled to the provincial-level. The results show that in most of the regions, penetration of efficient technologies will bring CO2 emission reductions of over 20% compared to the baseline by the year 2030. Deployment of energy efficient technologies also co-benefits GHG emission reduction. However, efficient technology selection appears to differ across provinces due to climatic variation and economic disparity. For instance, geothermal heating technology is effective for the cold Northern areas while biomass technology contributes to emission reduction the most in the warm Southern areas.

Seasonal variability and long-term evolution of tropospheric composition in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wai, K. M.; Wu, S.; Kumar, A.; Liao, H.

2014-05-01

Impacts on tropospheric composition in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere from biomass burning and other emission sources are studied using a global chemical transport model, surface measurements and satellite retrievals. Seasonal variations in observed CO at remote island sites are examined. Easter Island (eastern Pacific Ocean) is impacted indirectly by the hemispheric zonal transport of CO due to the burning in southern Africa/South America, via the westerlies. An increasing trend in CO by 0.33 ppb yr-1 in the past decade at Ascension Island is attributed to the combined effects of South American/southern Africa burnings and the increases in CH4 level. Compared to Easter Island and Ascension Island, much less contribution from biomass burning to atmospheric CO is found at the island of Mahé (western Indian Ocean), where the total CO peaks in January-February, reflecting the contributions of anthropogenic emissions from India. We also examine the 2000-2050 changes in atmospheric composition in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere driven by future changes in emissions and climate. Changes in solar radiation (UV) over South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) in future January have dominant effects on the O3 distribution. More than 55% of O3 concentrations over the SAO in both present-day and future September are not directly affected by the emissions (including lightning) over the adjacent two continents but are attributable to the transport of O3 from surrounding areas due to CO and CH4 oxidation and stratospheric intrusion. High NOx emissions in both continents in 2050s increase PAN concentrations over remote oceans at the higher southern latitudes (> 35° S) as far as those near Australia, affecting the O3 budget over there. Future changes in biomass burning and anthropogenic NOx emissions in southern Africa lead to a new area of high O3 concentrations near South Africa. The resulted O3 outflow to the Indian Ocean is pronounced due to the effects of the persistent anticyclone. A general reduction in future OH radical concentrations is predicted over the remote marine boundary layer in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere, as a result of the increases in CH4 and CO emissions.

Tracking greenhouse gas emissions from a U.S. megacity by remote sensing from a mountaintop site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Clare; Fu, Dejian; Pongetti, Thomas; Newman, Sally; Kort, Eric; Duren, Riley; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Miller, Charles; Yung, Yuk; Sander, Stanley

2014-05-01

Cities, such as Los Angeles, are significant sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). With the growth of populations in cities worldwide, GHG emissions will increase, and monitoring the temporal trends will provide crucial data for global climate models as well as assessments of the effectiveness of control policies. Currently, continuous GHG observations in the Los Angeles basin are limited to a few in situ measurements, which are shown to be sensitive to local emissions and do not represent the Los Angeles basin well. To quantify GHG emissions from the metropolitan area, which tend to have heterogeneous characteristics, it is important to perform measurements which provide both continuous temporal and spatial coverage of the domain. Here we present observations of the major greenhouse gases, CO2 and CH4, using a spectroscopic remote sensing technique from the California Laboratory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (CLARS) at Mount Wilson, California (1.7 km elevation). A Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) deployed at the CLARS site points downward at 28 selected land surfaces in the LA basin to measure the slant column abundances of CO2, CH4, N2¬O, CO and O2 using reflected sunlight in the near-infrared and short-wave infrared regions. This remote sensing technique provides continuous temporal and spatial measurements in the Los Angeles basin to achieve the goal of quantifying emissions of GHGs and CO. It also serves as a test-bed for future geostationary satellite missions to measure GHGs from space such as NASA JPL's Geostationary Carbon Process Investigation (GCPI). The path-averaged dry-air mixing ratio, XCO2 and XCH4, observed by the CLARS FTS, showed significant diurnal variability that arises from emissions in the Los Angeles basin and atmospheric transport processes. High-precision data have been collected since August 2011. We analyze the seasonal trends of the ratio XCH4:XCO2 and estimate the seasonal and annual CH4 emission in the Los Angeles basin observed by the CLARS FTS from August 2011 to present. This work demonstrates the ability to quantify and track GHG emissions in a megacity using ground-based remote sensing from an elevated platform and the potential for future geostationary satellite missions, such as GCPI, to monitor carbon fluxes in cities. Copyright 2014. California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

Current and Projected Carbon Dynamics in US Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogle, S. M.; Paustian, K.; Zhang, Y.; Kent, J.; Gurung, R.; Klotz, R.

2016-12-01

Agricultural lands occur across a variety of landscapes in the United States, and carbon dynamics are largely controlled by management decisions along with edaphic characteristics, climate and other environmental drivers. Due to the influence of management, there is potential to sequester carbon in soils with adoption of conservation practices, such as setting aside degraded land from production, limiting tillage disturbance, enhancing crop production with higher yielding varieties, planting cover crops, and restoring wetlands where they have been drained for crop production. In 2010, the level of sequestration in mineral soils across US croplands was 48 million metric tonnes CO2 equivalent, which is down from the high during the past 25 years of 90 million metric tonnes CO2 equivalent. In contrast, drained wetlands that are used for crop production were emitting 22.1 million metric tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2010. In the short term, restoring drained wetlands would decrease CO2emissions to the atmosphere, and even with the additional CH4 emissions from restored wetlands, there would an overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from these lands. In turn, this would make a significant contribution to the USDA Climate Smart Agriculture Plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 120 million metric tonnes CO2 equivalent in support of the Paris Agreement. The potential to sequester carbon in the future will also be impacted by climate change, in addition to the management decisions of land managers. We simulated future carbon dynamics through 2060 based on climate change projections for RCP 2.5, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, with and without CO2 fertilization effects. We are using the results as input to a general equilibrium model for the agricultural economic sector to better understand the economic consequences of climate change and the potential for greenhouse gas mitigation. By evaluating the influence of climate change and economic welfare, our study is providing a basis to understand the potential long-term contribution of carbon sequestration in support of a Climate Smart Agriculture Program in the United States.

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Last chance for carbon capture and storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Vivian; Gilfillan, Stuart; Markusson, Nils; Chalmers, Hannah; Haszeldine, R. Stuart

2013-02-01

Anthropogenic energy-related CO2 emissions are higher than ever. With new fossil-fuel power plants, growing energy-intensive industries and new sources of fossil fuels in development, further emissions increase seems inevitable. The rapid application of carbon capture and storage is a much heralded means to tackle emissions from both existing and future sources. However, despite extensive and successful research and development, progress in deploying carbon capture and storage has stalled. No fossil-fuel power plants, the greatest source of CO2 emissions, are using carbon capture and storage, and publicly supported demonstration programmes are struggling to deliver actual projects. Yet, carbon capture and storage remains a core component of national and global emissions-reduction scenarios. Governments have to either increase commitment to carbon capture and storage through much more active market support and emissions regulation, or accept its failure and recognize that continued expansion of power generation from burning fossil fuels is a severe threat to attaining objectives in mitigating climate change.

Soil-atmospheric exchange of CO2, CH4, and N2O in three subtropical forest ecosystems in southern China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tang, X.; Liu, S.; Zhou, G.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Zhou, C.

2006-01-01

The magnitude, temporal, and spatial patterns of soil-atmospheric greenhouse gas (hereafter referred to as GHG) exchanges in forests near the Tropic of Cancer are still highly uncertain. To contribute towards an improvement of actual estimates, soil-atmospheric CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes were measured in three successional subtropical forests at the Dinghushan Nature Reserve (hereafter referred to as DNR) in southern China. Soils in DNR forests behaved as N2O sources and CH4 sinks. Annual mean CO2, N2O, and CH4 fluxes (mean ?? SD) were 7.7 ?? 4.6MgCO2-Cha-1 yr-1, 3.2 ?? 1.2 kg N2ONha-1 yr-1, and 3.4 ?? 0.9 kgCH4-Cha-1 yr-1, respectively. The climate was warm and wet from April through September 2003 (the hot-humid season) and became cool and dry from October 2003 through March 2004 (the cool-dry season). The seasonality of soil CO2 emission coincided with the seasonal climate pattern, with high CO2 emission rates in the hot-humid season and low rates in the cool-dry season. In contrast, seasonal patterns of CH4 and N2O fluxes were not clear, although higher CH4 uptake rates were often observed in the cool-dry season and higher N2O emission rates were often observed in the hot-humid season. GHG fluxes measured at these three sites showed a clear increasing trend with the progressive succession. If this trend is representative at the regional scale, CO2 and N2O emissions and CH4 uptake in southern China may increase in the future in light of the projected change in forest age structure. Removal of surface litter reduced soil CO2 effluxes by 17-44% in the three forests but had no significant effect on CH4 absorption and N2O emission rates. This suggests that microbial CH4 uptake and N2O production was mainly related to the mineral soil rather than in the surface litter layer. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

FutureGen 2.0 Oxy-combustion Large Scale Test – Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kenison, LaVesta; Flanigan, Thomas; Hagerty, Gregg

The primary objectives of the FutureGen 2.0 CO 2 Oxy-Combustion Large Scale Test Project were to site, permit, design, construct, and commission, an oxy-combustion boiler, gas quality control system, air separation unit, and CO 2 compression and purification unit, together with the necessary supporting and interconnection utilities. The project was to demonstrate at commercial scale (168MWe gross) the capability to cleanly produce electricity through coal combustion at a retrofitted, existing coal-fired power plant; thereby, resulting in near-zeroemissions of all commonly regulated air emissions, as well as 90% CO 2 capture in steady-state operations. The project was to be fully integratedmore » in terms of project management, capacity, capabilities, technical scope, cost, and schedule with the companion FutureGen 2.0 CO 2 Pipeline and Storage Project, a separate but complementary project whose objective was to safely transport, permanently store and monitor the CO 2 captured by the Oxy-combustion Power Plant Project. The FutureGen 2.0 Oxy-Combustion Large Scale Test Project successfully achieved all technical objectives inclusive of front-end-engineering and design, and advanced design required to accurately estimate and contract for the construction, commissioning, and start-up of a commercial-scale "ready to build" power plant using oxy-combustion technology, including full integration with the companion CO 2 Pipeline and Storage project. Ultimately the project did not proceed to construction due to insufficient time to complete necessary EPC contract negotiations and commercial financing prior to expiration of federal co-funding, which triggered a DOE decision to closeout its participation in the project. Through the work that was completed, valuable technical, commercial, and programmatic lessons were learned. This project has significantly advanced the development of near-zero emission technology and will be helpful to plotting the course of, and successfully executing future large demonstration projects. This Final Scientific and Technical Report describes the technology and engineering basis of the project, inclusive of process systems, performance, effluents and emissions, and controls. Further, the project cost estimate, schedule, and permitting requirements are presented, along with a project risk and opportunity assessment. Lessons-learned related to these elements are summarized in this report. Companion reports Oxy-combustion further document the accomplishments and learnings of the project, including: A.01 Project Management Report which describes what was done to coordinate the various participants, and to track their performance with regard to schedule and budget B.02 Lessons Learned - Technology Integration, Value Improvements, and Program Management, which describes the innovations and conclusions that we arrived upon during the development of the project, and makes recommendations for improvement of future projects of a similar nature . B.03 Project Economics, which details the capital and operation costs and their basis, and also illustrates the cost of power produced by the plant with certain sensitivities. B.04 Power Plant, Pipeline, and Injection Site Interfaces, which details the interfaces between the two FutureGen projects B.05 Contractual Mechanisms for Design, Construction, and Operation, which describes the major EPC, and Operations Contracts required to execute the project.« less

Growth of single-crystalline cobalt silicide nanowires and their field emission property.

PubMed

Lu, Chi-Ming; Hsu, Han-Fu; Lu, Kuo-Chang

2013-07-03

In this work, cobalt silicide nanowires were synthesized by chemical vapor deposition processes on Si (100) substrates with anhydrous cobalt chloride (CoCl2) as precursors. Processing parameters, including the temperature of Si (100) substrates, the gas flow rate, and the pressure of reactions were varied and studied; additionally, the physical properties of the cobalt silicide nanowires were measured. It was found that single-crystal CoSi nanowires were grown at 850°C ~ 880°C and at a lower gas flow rate, while single-crystal Co2Si nanowires were grown at 880°C ~ 900°C. The crystal structure and growth direction were identified, and the growth mechanism was proposed as well. This study with field emission measurements demonstrates that CoSi nanowires are attractive choices for future applications in field emitters.

Historic and future trends of vehicle emissions in Beijing, 1998-2020: A policy assessment for the most stringent vehicle emission control program in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Wu, Xiaomeng; Li, Mengliang; Ge, Yunshan; Liang, Bin; Xu, Yueyun; Zhou, Yu; Liu, Huan; Fu, Lixin; Hao, Jiming

2014-06-01

As a pioneer in controlling vehicle emissions within China, Beijing released the Clean Air Action Plan 2013-2017 document in August 2013 to improve its urban air quality. It has put forward this plan containing the most stringent emission control policies and strategies to be adopted for on-road vehicles of Beijing. This paper estimates the historic and future trends and uncertainties in vehicle emissions of Beijing from 1998 to 2020 by applying a new emission factor model for the Beijing vehicle fleet (EMBEV). Our updated results show that total emissions of CO, THC, NOx and PM2.5 from the Beijing vehicle fleet are 507 (395-819) kt, 59.1 (41.2-90.5) kt, 74.7 (54.9-103.9) kt and 2.69 (1.91-4.17) kt, respectively, at a 95% confidence level. This represents significant reductions of 58%, 59%, 31% and 62%, respectively, relative to the total vehicle emissions in 1998. The past trends clearly posed a challenge to NOx emission mitigation for the Beijing vehicle fleet, especially in light of those increasing NOx emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) which have partly offset the reduction benefit from light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs). Because of recently announced vehicle emission controls to be adopted in Beijing, including tighter emissions standards, limitations on vehicle growth by more stringent license control, promotion of alternative fuel technologies (e.g., natural gas) and the scrappage of older vehicles, estimated vehicle emissions in Beijing will continue to be mitigated by 74% of CO, 68% of THC, 56% of NOx and 72% of PM2.5 in 2020 compared to 2010 levels. Considering that many of the megacities in China are facing tremendous pressures to mitigate emissions from on-road vehicles, our assessment will provide a timely case study of significance for policy-makers in China.

Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock agriculture in 16 local administrative districts of Korea.

PubMed

Ji, Eun Sook; Park, Kyu-Hyun

2012-12-01

This study was conducted to evaluate methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from livestock agriculture in 16 local administrative districts of Korea from 1990 to 2030. National Inventory Report used 3 yr averaged livestock population but this study used 1 yr livestock population to find yearly emission fluctuations. Extrapolation of the livestock population from 1990 to 2009 was used to forecast future livestock population from 2010 to 2030. Past (yr 1990 to 2009) and forecasted (yr 2010 to 2030) averaged enteric CH4 emissions and CH4 and N2O emissions from manure treatment were estimated. In the section of enteric fermentation, forecasted average CH4 emissions from 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 4%-114% compared to that of the past except for Daejeon (-63%), Seoul (-36%) and Gyeonggi (-7%). As for manure treatment, forecasted average CH4 emissions from the 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 3%-124% compared to past average except for Daejeon (-77%), Busan (-60%), Gwangju (-48%) and Seoul (-8%). For manure treatment, forecasted average N2O emissions from the 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 10%-153% compared to past average CH4 emissions except for Daejeon (-60%), Seoul (-4.0%), and Gwangju (-0.2%). With the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (CO2-Eq), forecasted average CO2-Eq from the 16 local administrative districts were estimated to increase by 31%-120% compared to past average CH4 emissions except Daejeon (-65%), Seoul (-24%), Busan (-18%), Gwangju (-8%) and Gyeonggi (-1%). The decreased CO2-Eq from 5 local administrative districts was only 34 kt, which was insignificantly small compared to increase of 2,809 kt from other 11 local administrative districts. Annual growth rates of enteric CH4 emissions, CH4 and N2O emissions from manure management in Korea from 1990 to 2009 were 1.7%, 2.6%, and 3.2%, respectively. The annual growth rate of total CO2-Eq was 2.2%. Efforts by the local administrative offices to improve the accuracy of activity data are essential to improve GHG inventories. Direct measurements of GHG emissions from enteric fermentation and manure treatment systems will further enhance the accuracy of the GHG data. (Key Words: Greenhouse Gas, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Emission, Climate Change).

The evolution of shipping emissions and the costs of recent and forthcoming emission regulations in the northern European emission control area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansson, L.; Jalkanen, J.-P.; Kalli, J.; Kukkonen, J.

2013-06-01

An extensive inventory of marine exhaust emissions is presented in the northern European emission control area (ECA) in 2009 and 2011. The emissions of SOx, NOx, CO2, CO and PM2.5 were evaluated using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM). We have combined the information on individual vessel characteristics and position reports generated by the Automatic Identification System (AIS). The emission limitations from 2009 to 2011 have had a significant impact on reducing the emissions of both SOx and PM2.5. The predicted emissions of SOx originated from IMO-registered marine traffic have been reduced by 33%, from 322 ktons to 217 ktons, in the ECA from 2009 to 2011. The corresponding predicted reduction of PM2.5 emissions was 20%, from 74 ktons to 59 ktons. The highest CO2 and PM2.5 emissions in 2011 were located in the vicinity of the coast of the Netherlands, in the English Channel, near the South-Eastern UK and along the busiest shipping lines in the Danish Straits and the Baltic Sea. The changes of emissions and the financial costs caused by various regulative actions since 2005 were also evaluated, based on the increased direct fuel costs. We also simulated the effects and direct costs associated with the forthcoming switch to low-sulfur distillate fuels in 2015. According to the projections for the future, there will be a reduction of 85% in SOx emissions and a~reduction of 50% in PM2.5 emissions in 2015, compared with the corresponding shipping emissions in 2011 in the ECA. The corresponding relative increase in fuel costs for all shipping varied between 10% and 63%, depending on the development of the prices of fuels and the use of the sulfur scrubber equipment.

Water for electricity in India: A multi-model study of future challenges and linkages to climate change mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Srinivasan, Shweta; Kholod, Nazar; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

This paper provides projections of water withdrawals and consumption for electricity generation in India through 2050. Based on the results from five energy-economic modeling teams, the paper explores the implications of economic growth, power plant cooling policies, and electricity CO2 emissions reductions on water withdrawals and consumption. To isolate modeling differences, the five teams used harmonized assumptions regarding economic and population growth, the distribution of power plants by cooling technologies, and withdrawals and consumption intensities. The results demonstrate the different but potentially complementary implications of cooling technology policies and efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. The application of closed-loop cooling technologiesmore » substantially reduces water withdrawals but increases consumption. The water implications of CO2 emissions reductions, depend critically on the approach to these reductions. Focusing on wind and solar power reduces consumption and withdrawals; a focus on nuclear power increases both; and a focus on hydroelectric power could increase consumptive losses through evaporation.« less

A half-century of production-phase greenhouse gas emissions from food loss & waste in the global food supply chain.

PubMed

Porter, Stephen D; Reay, David S; Higgins, Peter; Bomberg, Elizabeth

2016-11-15

Research on loss & waste of food meant for human consumption (FLW) and its environmental impact typically focuses on a single or small number of commodities in a specific location and point in time. However, it is unclear how trends in global FLW and potential for climate impact have evolved. Here, by utilising the Food and Agriculture Organization's food balance sheet data, we expand upon existing literature. Firstly, we provide a differentiated (by commodity, country and supply chain stage) bottom-up approach; secondly, we conduct a 50-year longitudinal analysis of global FLW and its production-phase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and thirdly, we trace food wastage and its associated emissions through the entire food supply chain. Between 1961 and 2011 the annual amount of FLW by mass grew a factor of three - from 540Mt to 1.6Gt; associated production-phase (GHG) emissions more than tripled (from 680Mt to 2.2Gt CO2e). A 44% increase in global average per capita FLW emissions was also identified - from 225kg CO2e in 1961 to 323kg CO2e in 2011. The regional weighting within this global average changing markedly over time; in 1961 developed countries accounted for 48% of FLW and less than a quarter (24%) in 2011. The largest increases in FLW-associated GHG emissions were from developing economies, specifically China and Latin America - primarily from increasing losses in fruit and vegetables. Over the period examined, cumulatively such emissions added almost 68Gt CO2e to the atmospheric GHG stock; an amount the rough equivalent of two years of emissions from all anthropogenic sources at present rates. Building up from the most granular data available, this study highlights the growth in the climate burden of FLW emissions, and thus the need to improve efficiency in food supply chains to mitigate future emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The forest-bioenergy-carbon connection

Treesearch

Jay O' Laughlin

2010-01-01

Burning wood for energy is a back-to-the-future approach for solving modern problems. The burning of fossil fuels for energy and resultant carbon emissions are global concerns: “The world needs ever increasing energy supplies to sustain economic growth and development. But energy resources are under pressure and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from today’s energy use...

Mitigation of carbon dioxide from the Indonesia energy system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adi, A.C.; Nurrohim, A.; Hidajat, M.N.

1996-12-31

Energy consumption in Indonesia is growing fast in line with the development of national economy. During (1990 - 1993) the emission of CO{sub 2} gas coming from energy sector increased from 150 million tones to 200 million tones in 1993. Whereas, the total methane emission from the oil, gas and coal sub-sector reached 550 kilo tones in 1991 and increased to 670 kilo tones in 1994. This amount of CO{sub 2} and Methane from energy sector was 26% and 10 % respectively of the total emission of Indonesia. Based on the last two decades of Indonesia`s economic growth experience, asmore » a developing country this high economic growth rate of Indonesia in the future will be kept until reaching the newly industrialized country level, which is more than 6% annually in the next decade. This high growth rate economic projection will also added the level of GHG emission in the future. As a developing country Indonesia is one of the fast growing countries. The GDP growth in the year 1995 was more than 7 percent, therefore growth rate of energy consumption in this country also rose following the economic growth.« less

A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming

DOE PAGES

Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson; Matthews, H. Damon

2015-11-16

Efforts to mitigate and adapt to long-term climate change could benefit greatly from probabilistic estimates of cumulative carbon emissions due to fossil fuel burning and resulting CO 2-induced planetary warming. Here we demonstrate the use of a reduced-form model to project these variables. We performed simulations using a large-ensemble framework with parametric uncertainty sampled to produce distributions of future cumulative emissions and consequent planetary warming. A hind-cast ensemble of simulations captured 1980–2012 historical CO 2 emissions trends and an ensemble of future projection simulations generated a distribution of emission scenarios that qualitatively resembled the suite of Representative and Extended Concentrationmore » Pathways. The resulting cumulative carbon emission and temperature change distributions are characterized by 5–95th percentile ranges of 0.96–4.9 teratonnes C (Tt C) and 1.4 °C–8.5 °C, respectively, with 50th percentiles at 3.1 Tt C and 4.7 °C. Within the wide range of policy-related parameter combinations that produced these distributions, we found that low-emission simulations were characterized by both high carbon prices and low costs of non-fossil fuel energy sources, suggesting the importance of these two policy levers in particular for avoiding dangerous levels of climate warming. With this analysis we demonstrate a probabilistic approach to the challenge of identifying strategies for limiting cumulative carbon emissions and assessing likelihoods of surpassing dangerous temperature thresholds.« less

Implications of 'Peak Oil' for Atmospheric CO2 and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharecha, P. A.; Hansen, J. E.

2008-12-01

Unconstrained CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of "proven" and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO2 and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration -- and recent trends are toward lower estimates -- we show that it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that emissions from coal, unconventional fossil fuels, and land use are constrained. Coal-fired facilities without sequestration must be phased out before midcentury to achieve this CO2 limit. It is also important to "stretch" conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while clean technologies are being developed for the era "beyond fossil fuels". We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into usable reserves, and to keep CO2 below 450 ppm. It is also plausible that CO2 can be returned below 350 ppm by 2100 or sooner, if more aggressive mitigation measures are enacted, most notably a phase-out of global coal emissions by circa 2030 and large- scale reforestation, primarily in the tropics but also in temperate regions.

Opportunity for offshore wind to reduce future demand for coal-fired power plants in China with consequent savings in emissions of CO2.

PubMed

Lu, Xi; McElroy, Michael B; Chen, Xinyu; Kang, Chongqing

2014-12-16

Although capacity credits for wind power have been embodied in power systems in the U.S. and Europe, the current planning framework for electricity in China continues to treat wind power as a nondispatchable source with zero contribution to firm capacity. This study adopts a rigorous reliability model for the electric power system evaluating capacity credits that should be recognized for offshore wind resources supplying power demands for Jiangsu, China. Jiangsu is an economic hub located in the Yangtze River delta accounting for 10% of the total electricity consumed in China. Demand for electricity in Jiangsu is projected to increase from 331 TWh in 2009 to 800 TWh by 2030. Given a wind penetration level of 60% for the future additional Jiangsu power supply, wind resources distributed along the offshore region of five coastal provinces in China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Fujian) should merit a capacity credit of 12.9%, the fraction of installed wind capacity that should be recognized to displace coal-fired systems without violating the reliability standard. In the high-coal-price scenario, with 60% wind penetration, reductions in CO2 emissions relative to a business as usual reference could be as large as 200.2 million tons of CO2 or 51.8% of the potential addition, with a cost for emissions avoided of $29.0 per ton.

Tundra ecosystems observed to be CO2 sources due to differential amplification of the carbon cycle.

PubMed

Belshe, E F; Schuur, E A G; Bolker, B M

2013-10-01

Are tundra ecosystems currently a carbon source or sink? What is the future trajectory of tundra carbon fluxes in response to climate change? These questions are of global importance because of the vast quantities of organic carbon stored in permafrost soils. In this meta-analysis, we compile 40 years of CO2 flux observations from 54 studies spanning 32 sites across northern high latitudes. Using time-series analysis, we investigated if seasonal or annual CO2 fluxes have changed over time, and whether spatial differences in mean annual temperature could help explain temporal changes in CO2 flux. Growing season net CO2 uptake has definitely increased since the 1990s; the data also suggest (albeit less definitively) an increase in winter CO2 emissions, especially in the last decade. In spite of the uncertainty in the winter trend, we estimate that tundra sites were annual CO2 sources from the mid-1980s until the 2000s, and data from the last 7 years show that tundra continue to emit CO2 annually. CO2 emissions exceed CO2 uptake across the range of temperatures that occur in the tundra biome. Taken together, these data suggest that despite increases in growing season uptake, tundra ecosystems are currently CO2 sources on an annual basis. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Implications of ``peak oil'' for atmospheric CO2 and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James E.

2008-09-01

Unconstrained CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of "proven" and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO2 and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration, and recent trends are toward lower estimates, we show that it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that emissions from coal, unconventional fossil fuels, and land use are constrained. Coal-fired power plants without sequestration must be phased out before midcentury to achieve this CO2 limit. It is also important to "stretch" conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while clean technologies are being developed for the era "beyond fossil fuels". We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into usable reserves, and to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling.

The Net Climate Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

2010-01-01

Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until 1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate regional temperature responses may provide additional insight.

The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

2010-04-01

Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until ~1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low-sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogenaities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate regional temperature responses may provide additional insight.

Analysis of non-regulated vehicular emissions by extractive FTIR spectrometry: tests on a hybrid car in Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, F.; Grutter, M.; Jazcilevich, A.; González-Oropeza, R.

2006-07-01

A methodology to acquire valuable information on the chemical composition and evolution of vehicular emissions is presented. The analysis of the gases is performed by passing a constant flow of a sample gas from the tail-pipe into a 10 L multi-pass cell. The absorption spectra within the cell are obtained using an FTIR spectrometer at 0.5 cm-1 resolution along a 13.1 m optical path. Additionally, the total flow from the exhaust is continuously measured from a differential pressure sensor on a Pitot tube installed at the exit of the exhaust. This configuration aims to obtain a good speciation capability by coadding spectra during 30 s and reporting the emission (in g/km) of key and non-regulated pollutants, such as CO2, CO, NO, SO2, NH3, HCHO, NMHC, during predetermined driving routines. The advantages and disadvantages of increasing the acquisition frequency, as well as the effect of other parameters such as spectral resolution, cell volume and flow rate, are discussed. With the aim of testing and evaluating the proposed technique, experiments were performed on a dynamometer running FTP-75 and typical driving cycles of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) on a Toyota Prius hybrid vehicle. This car is an example of recent automotive technology to reach the market dedicated to reduce emissions and therefore pressing the need of low detection techniques. This study shows the potential of the proposed technique to measure and report in real time the emissions of a large variety of pollutants, even from a super ultra-low emission vehicle (SULEV). The emissions of HC's, NOx, CO and CO2 obtained here are similar to experiments performed in other locations with the same vehicle model. Some differences suggest that an inefficient combustion process and type of gasoline used in the MCMA may be partly responsible for lower CO2 and higher CO and NO emission factors. Also, a fast reduction of NO emission to very low values is observed after cold ignition, giving rise to moderate N2O and eventually NH3 emissions. The proposed technique provides a tool for future studies comparing in detail the emissions of different technologies using alternative fuels and emission control systems.

Creating markets for captured carbon: Retrofit of Abbott Power Plant and Future Utilization of Captured CO 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Brien, Kevin C.; Lu, Yongqi; Patel, Vinod

The successful implementation of CCUS requires the confluence of technology, regulatory, and financial factors. One of the factors that impact this confluence is the ability to utilize and monetize captured CO 2. The generally accepted utilization approach has been CO 2-based Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), yet this is not always feasible and/or a preferable approach. There is a need to be able to explore a multitude of utilization approaches in order to identify a portfolio of potential utilization mechanisms. This portfolio must be adapted based on the economy of the region. In response to this need, the University of Illinoismore » has formed a Carbon Dioxide Utilization and Reduction (COOULR) Center. The open nature of the university, coupled with a university policy to reduce CO 2 emissions, provides a model for the issues communities will face when attempting to reduce emissions while still maintaining reliable and affordable power. This Center is one of the key steps in the formation of a market for captured CO 2. Furthermore, the goal of the Center is to not only evaluate technologies, but also demonstrate at a large pilot scale how communities may be able to adjust to the need to reduce GHG emissions.« less

Creating markets for captured carbon: Retrofit of Abbott Power Plant and Future Utilization of Captured CO 2

DOE PAGES

O'Brien, Kevin C.; Lu, Yongqi; Patel, Vinod; ...

2017-01-01

The successful implementation of CCUS requires the confluence of technology, regulatory, and financial factors. One of the factors that impact this confluence is the ability to utilize and monetize captured CO 2. The generally accepted utilization approach has been CO 2-based Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), yet this is not always feasible and/or a preferable approach. There is a need to be able to explore a multitude of utilization approaches in order to identify a portfolio of potential utilization mechanisms. This portfolio must be adapted based on the economy of the region. In response to this need, the University of Illinoismore » has formed a Carbon Dioxide Utilization and Reduction (COOULR) Center. The open nature of the university, coupled with a university policy to reduce CO 2 emissions, provides a model for the issues communities will face when attempting to reduce emissions while still maintaining reliable and affordable power. This Center is one of the key steps in the formation of a market for captured CO 2. Furthermore, the goal of the Center is to not only evaluate technologies, but also demonstrate at a large pilot scale how communities may be able to adjust to the need to reduce GHG emissions.« less

Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang

Here, we present a new data set of annual historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH 4, NH 3, NO x, SO 2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon – BC, and organic carbon – OC), and CO 2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the samemore » activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.« less

Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

DOE PAGES

Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang; ...

2018-01-29

Here, we present a new data set of annual historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH 4, NH 3, NO x, SO 2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon – BC, and organic carbon – OC), and CO 2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the samemore » activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.« less

Historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang; Klimont, Zbigniew; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Pitkanen, Tyler; Seibert, Jonathan J.; Vu, Linh; Andres, Robert J.; Bolt, Ryan M.; Bond, Tami C.; Dawidowski, Laura; Kholod, Nazar; Kurokawa, June-ichi; Li, Meng; Liu, Liang; Lu, Zifeng; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; O'Rourke, Patrick R.; Zhang, Qiang

2018-01-01

We present a new data set of annual historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon - BC, and organic carbon - OC), and CO2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.

Unconventional fossil-based fuels : economic and environmental trade-offs

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

Both high import payments for petroleum motor fuels and concerns regarding emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are motivating interest in possible fuel substitutes. In this report, RAND researchers assess the potential future production levels, product...

Procedure for generating global atmospheric engine emissions data from future supersonic transport aircraft. The 1990 high speed civil transport studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sohn, R. A.; Stroup, J. W.

1990-01-01

The input for global atmospheric chemistry models was generated for baseline High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) configurations at Mach 1.6, 2.2, and 3.2. The input is supplied in the form of number of molecules of specific exhaust constituents injected into the atmosphere per year by latitude and by altitude (for 2-D codes). Seven exhaust constituents are currently supplied: NO, NO2, CO, CO2, H2O, SO2, and THC (Trace Hydrocarbons). An eighth input is also supplied, NO(x), the sum of NO and NO2. The number of molecules of a given constituent emitted per year is a function of the total fuel burned by a supersonic fleet and the emission index (EI) of the aircraft engine for the constituent in question. The EIs for an engine are supplied directly by the engine manufacturers. The annual fuel burn of a supersonic fleet is calculated from aircraft performance and economic criteria, both of which are strongly dependent on basic design parameters such as speed and range. The altitude and latitude distribution of the emission is determined based on 10 Intern. Air Transport Assoc. (IATA) regions chosen to define the worldwide route structure for future HSCT operations and the mission flight profiles.

Capture-ready power plants - options, technologies and economics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bohm, M.C.

2006-06-15

A plant can be considered to be capture-ready if at some point in the future it can be retrofitted for carbon capture and sequestration and still be economical to operate. The first part of the thesis outlines the two major designs that are being considered for construction in the near-term - pulverized coal (PC) and integrated gasification/combined cycle (IGCC). It details the steps that are necessary to retrofit each of these plants for CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration and assesses the steps that can be taken to reduce the costs and output de-rating of the plant after a retrofit. The second part of the thesis evaluates the lifetime (40 year) net present value (NPV) costs of plants with differing levels of pre-investment for CO{sub 2} capture. Three scenarios are evaluated - a baseline supercritical PC plant, a baseline IGCC plant and an IGCC plant with pre-investment for capture. The results of this thesis show that a baseline PC plant is the most economical choice under low CO{sub 2} tax rates, and IGCC plants are preferable at higher tax rates. The third part of this thesis evaluates the concept of CO{sub 2} 'lock-in'. CO{sub 2} lock-in occurs when a newly built plant is so prohibitively expensive to retrofit for CO{sub 2} capture that it will never be retrofitted for capture, and offers no economic opportunity to reduce the CO{sub 2} emissions from the plant, besides shutting down or rebuilding. The results show that IGCC plants are expected to have lower lifetime CO{sub 2} emissions than a PC plant, given moderate (10-35more » $$/ton CO{sub 2}) initial tax rates. Higher 4 (above $$40) or lower (below $7) initial tax rates do not result in significant differences in lifetime CO{sub 2} emissions from these plants. Little difference is seen in the lifetime CO{sub 2} emissions between the IGCC plants with and without pre-investment for CO{sub 2} capture. 32 refs., 22 figs., 20 tabs., 1 app.« less

Framing Climate Goals in Terms of Cumulative CO2-Forcing-Equivalent Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, S.; Millar, R. J.; Leach, N.; Allen, M. R.

2018-03-01

The relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming is determined by the Transient Climate Response to Emissions (TCRE), but total anthropogenic warming also depends on non-CO2 forcing, complicating the interpretation of emissions budgets based on CO2 alone. An alternative is to frame emissions budgets in terms of CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions—the CO2 emissions that would yield a given total anthropogenic radiative forcing pathway. Unlike conventional "CO2-equivalent" emissions, these are directly related to warming by the TCRE and need to fall to zero to stabilize warming: hence, CO2-fe emissions generalize the concept of a cumulative carbon budget to multigas scenarios. Cumulative CO2-fe emissions from 1870 to 2015 inclusive are found to be 2,900 ± 600 GtCO2-fe, increasing at a rate of 67 ± 9.5 GtCO2-fe/yr. A TCRE range of 0.8-2.5°C per 1,000 GtC implies a total budget for 0.6°C of additional warming above the present decade of 880-2,750 GtCO2-fe, with 1,290 GtCO2-fe implied by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 median response, corresponding to 19 years' CO2-fe emissions at the current rate.

Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem.

PubMed

Doney, Scott C; Fabry, Victoria J; Feely, Richard A; Kleypas, Joan A

2009-01-01

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily from human fossil fuel combustion, reduces ocean pH and causes wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry. The process of ocean acidification is well documented in field data, and the rate will accelerate over this century unless future CO2 emissions are curbed dramatically. Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states, which impacts shell-forming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs, echinoderms, and corals. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO2 conditions. Ocean acidification also causes an increase in carbon fixation rates in some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying). The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO2 and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known; both are high priorities for future research. Although ocean pH has varied in the geological past, paleo-events may be only imperfect analogs to current conditions.

Comparison of CO2 Emissions Data for 30 Cities from Different Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Y.; Koide, D.; Ito, A.; Saito, M.; Hirata, R.

2017-12-01

Many sources suggest that cities account for a large proportion of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, in search for the best ways to reduce total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, a focus on the city emission is crucial. In this study, we collected CO2 emissions data in 30 cities during 1990-2015 and evaluated the degree of variance between data sources. The CO2 emissions data were obtained from academic papers, municipal reports, and high-resolution emissions maps (CIDIACv2016, EDGARv4.2, ODIACv2016, and FFDASv2.0). To extract urban CO2 emissions from the high-resolution emissions maps, urban fraction ranging from 0 to 1 was calculated for each 1×1 degree grid cell using the global land cover data (SYNMAP). Total CO2 emissions from the grid cells in which urban fraction occupies greater than or equal to 0.9 were regarded as urban CO2 emissions. The estimated CO2 emissions varied greatly depending on the information sources, even in the same year. There was a large difference between CO2 emissions collected from academic papers, municipal reports, and those extracted from high-resolution emissions maps. One reason is that they use different city boundaries. That is, the city proper (i.e. the political city boundary) is often defined as the city boundary in academic papers and municipal reports, whereas the urban area is used in the high-resolution emissions maps. Furthermore, there was a large variation in CO2 emissions collected from academic papers and municipal reports. These differences may be due to the difference in the assumptions such as allocation ratio of CO2 emissions to producers and consumers. In general, the consumption-based assignment of emissions gives higher estimates of urban CO2 emission in comparison with production-based assignment. Furthermore, there was also a large variation in CO2 emissions extracted from high-resolution emissions maps. This difference would be attributable to differences in information used in the spatial disaggregation of emissions. To identify the CO2 emissions from cities, it is necessary to determine common definitions of city boundaries, allocation ratio of CO2 emissions to consumption and production, and refined approach of the spatial disaggregation of CO2 emissions in high-resolution emissions maps.

The evolution of shipping emissions and the costs of regulation changes in the northern EU area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansson, L.; Jalkanen, J.-P.; Kalli, J.; Kukkonen, J.

2013-11-01

An extensive inventory of marine exhaust emissions is presented in the northern European emission control area (ECA) in 2009 and 2011. The emissions of SOx, NOx, CO2, CO and PM2.5 were evaluated using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM). We have combined the information on individual vessel characteristics and position reports generated by the automatic identification system (AIS). The emission limitations from 2009 to 2011 have had a significant impact on reducing the emissions of both SOx and PM2.5. The predicted emissions of SOx originated from IMO (International Maritime Organization)-registered marine traffic have been reduced by 29%, from 320 kt to 231 kt, in the ECA from 2009 to 2011. The corresponding predicted reduction of PM2.5 emissions was 17%, from 72 kt to 61 kt. The highest CO2 and PM2.5 emissions in 2011 were located in the vicinity of the coast of the Netherlands, in the English Channel, near the south-eastern UK and along the busiest shipping lines in the Danish Straits and the Baltic Sea. The changes of emissions and the financial costs caused by various regulative actions since 2005 were also evaluated, based on the increased direct fuel costs. We also simulated the effects and direct costs associated with the forthcoming switch to low-sulfur distillate fuels in 2015. According to the projections for the future, there will be a reduction of 87% in SOx emissions and a reduction of 48% in PM2.5 emissions in 2015, compared with the corresponding shipping emissions in 2011 in the ECA. The corresponding relative increase in fuel costs for all IMO-registered shipping varied between 13% and 69%, depending on the development of the prices of fuels and the use of the sulfur scrubber equipment.

Causes and Implications of Persistent Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Biases in Earth System Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, James T.; Arora, Vivek K.

The strength of feedbacks between a changing climate and future CO2 concentrations are uncertain and difficult to predict using Earth System Models (ESMs). We analyzed emission-driven simulations--in which atmospheric CO2 levels were computed prognostically--for historical (1850-2005) and future periods (RCP 8.5 for 2006-2100) produced by 15 ESMs for the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparison of ESM prognostic atmospheric CO2 over the historical period with observations indicated that ESMs, on average, had a small positive bias in predictions of contemporary atmospheric CO2. Weak ocean carbon uptake in many ESMs contributed to this bias, based on comparisonsmore » with observations of ocean and atmospheric anthropogenic carbon inventories. We found a significant linear relationship between contemporary atmospheric CO2 biases and future CO2 levels for the multi-model ensemble. We used this relationship to create a contemporary CO2 tuned model (CCTM) estimate of the atmospheric CO2 trajectory for the 21st century. The CCTM yielded CO2 estimates of 600 {plus minus} 14 ppm at 2060 and 947 {plus minus} 35 ppm at 2100, which were 21 ppm and 32 ppm below the multi-model mean during these two time periods. Using this emergent constraint approach, the likely ranges of future atmospheric CO2, CO2-induced radiative forcing, and CO2-induced temperature increases for the RCP 8.5 scenario were considerably narrowed compared to estimates from the full ESM ensemble. Our analysis provided evidence that much of the model-to-model variation in projected CO2 during the 21st century was tied to biases that existed during the observational era, and that model differences in the representation of concentration-carbon feedbacks and other slowly changing carbon cycle processes appear to be the primary driver of this variability. By improving models to more closely match the long-term time series of CO2 from Mauna Loa, our analysis suggests uncertainties in future climate projections can be reduced.« less

Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Arora, V. K.; Bao, Q.; Cadule, P.; Ji, D.; Jones, C. D.; Kawamiya, M.; Khatiwala, S.; Lindsay, K.; Obata, A.; Shevliakova, E.; Six, K. D.; Tjiputra, J. F.; Volodin, E. M.; Wu, T.

2014-02-01

The strength of feedbacks between a changing climate and future CO2 concentrations is uncertain and difficult to predict using Earth System Models (ESMs). We analyzed emission-driven simulations—in which atmospheric CO2levels were computed prognostically—for historical (1850-2005) and future periods (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for 2006-2100) produced by 15 ESMs for the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Comparison of ESM prognostic atmospheric CO2 over the historical period with observations indicated that ESMs, on average, had a small positive bias in predictions of contemporary atmospheric CO2. Weak ocean carbon uptake in many ESMs contributed to this bias, based on comparisons with observations of ocean and atmospheric anthropogenic carbon inventories. We found a significant linear relationship between contemporary atmospheric CO2 biases and future CO2levels for the multimodel ensemble. We used this relationship to create a contemporary CO2 tuned model (CCTM) estimate of the atmospheric CO2 trajectory for the 21st century. The CCTM yielded CO2estimates of 600±14 ppm at 2060 and 947±35 ppm at 2100, which were 21 ppm and 32 ppm below the multimodel mean during these two time periods. Using this emergent constraint approach, the likely ranges of future atmospheric CO2, CO2-induced radiative forcing, and CO2-induced temperature increases for the RCP 8.5 scenario were considerably narrowed compared to estimates from the full ESM ensemble. Our analysis provided evidence that much of the model-to-model variation in projected CO2 during the 21st century was tied to biases that existed during the observational era and that model differences in the representation of concentration-carbon feedbacks and other slowly changing carbon cycle processes appear to be the primary driver of this variability. By improving models to more closely match the long-term time series of CO2from Mauna Loa, our analysis suggests that uncertainties in future climate projections can be reduced.

Significance of the oceanic CO2 sink for national carbon accounts

PubMed Central

McNeil, Ben I

2006-01-01

Background Under the United Nations convention on the law of the sea (1982), each participating country maintains exclusive economic and environmental rights within the oceanic region extending 200 nm from its coastline, known as the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Although the ocean within each EEZ has a vast capacity to absorb anthropogenic CO2 and therefore potentially be used as a carbon sink, it is not mentioned within the Kyoto Protocol most likely due to inadequate quantitative estimates. Here, I use two methods to estimate the anthropogenic CO2 storage and uptake for a typically large EEZ (Australia). Results Depending on whether the Antarctic territory is included I find that during the 1990s between 30–40% of Australia's fossil-fuel CO2 emissions were absorbed by its own EEZ. Conclusion This example highlights the potential significance of the EEZ carbon sink for national carbon accounts. However, this 'natural anthropogenic CO2 sink' could be used as a disincentive for certain nations to reduce their anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which would ultimately dampen global efforts to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Since the oceanic anthropogenic CO2 sink has limited ability to be controlled by human activities, current and future international climate change policies should have an explicit 'EEZ' clause excluding its use within national carbon accounts. PMID:16930461

Emissions of mercury in southern Africa derived from long-term observations at Cape Point, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunke, E.-G.; Ebinghaus, R.; Kock, H. H.; Labuschagne, C.; Slemr, F.

2012-08-01

Mercury emissions in South Africa have so far been estimated only by a bottom-up approach from activities and emission factors for different processes. In this paper we derive GEM/CO (GEM being gaseous elemental mercury, Hg0), GEM/CO2, GEM/CH4, CO/CO2, CH4/CO2, and CH4/CO emission ratios from plumes observed during long-term monitoring of these species at Cape Point between March 2007 and December 2009. The average observed GEM/CO, GEM/CO2, GEM/CH4, CO/CO2, CH4/CO2, and CH4/CO emission ratios were 2.40 ± 2.65 pg m-3 ppb-1 (n = 47), 62.7 ± 80.2 pg m-3 ppm-1 (n = 44), 3.61 ± 4.66 pg m-3 ppb-1 (n = 46), 35.6 ± 25.4 ppb ppm-1 (n = 52), 20.2 ± 15.5 ppb ppm-1 (n = 48), and 0.876 ± 1.106 ppb ppb-1 (n = 42), respectively. The observed CO/CO2, CH4/CO2, and CH4/CO emission ratios agree within the combined uncertainties of the observations and emissions with the ratios calculated from EDGAR (version 4.2) CO2, CO, and CH4 inventories for South Africa and southern Africa (South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique) in 2007 and 2008 (inventories for 2009 are not available yet). Total elemental mercury emission of 13.1, 15.2, and 16.1 t Hg yr-1 are estimated independently using the GEM/CO, GEM/CO2, and GEM/CH4 emission ratios and the annual mean CO, CO2, and CH4 emissions, respectively, of South Africa in 2007 and 2008. The average of these independent estimates of 14.8 t GEM yr-1 is much less than the total emission of 257 t Hg yr-1 shown by older inventories which are now considered to be wrong. Considering the uncertainties of our emission estimate, of the emission inventories, and the fact that emission of GEM represents 50-78 % of all mercury emissions, our estimate is comparable to the currently cited GEM emissions in 2004 and somewhat smaller than emissions in 2006. A further increase of mercury emissions due to increasing electricity consumption will lead to a more pronounced difference. A quantitative assessment of the difference and its significance, however, will require emission inventories for the years of observations (2007-2009) as well as better data on the speciation of the total mercury emissions in South Africa.

Remote sensing of trend and seasonal variability of greenhouse gas emissions from the Los Angeles basin using an FTS on Mount Wilson

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, C.; Fu, D.; Pongetti, T. J.; Newman, S.; Yung, Y. L.; Sander, S. P.

2013-12-01

Cities, such as Los Angeles, are significant sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). With the growth of populations in cities worldwide, GHG emissions will increase, and monitoring the temporal trends will provide crucial data for global climate models as well as assessments of the effectiveness of control policies. Currently, continuous GHG observations in the Los Angeles basin are limited to a few in situ measurements, which are shown to be sensitive to local emissions and do not represent the Los Angeles basin well. To quantify GHG emissions from the metropolitan area, which tend to have heterogeneous characteristics, it is important to perform measurements which provide both continuous temporal and spatial coverage of the domain. Here we present observations of the major greenhouse gases, CO2 and CH4, using a spectroscopic remote sensing technique from the California Laboratory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (CLARS) at Mount Wilson, California (1.7 km elevation). A Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) deployed at the CLARS site points downward at 28 selected land surfaces in the Los Angeles basin to measure the slant column abundances of CO2, CH4, N2O, CO and O2 using reflected sunlight in the near-infrared and shortwave infrared regions. This remote sensing technique provides continuous temporal and spatial measurements in the Los Angeles basin to achieve the goal of quantifying emissions of GHGs and CO. It also serves as a test-bed for future geostationary satellite missions to measure GHGs from space such as JPL's Geostationary Carbon Process Investigation (GCPI). The path-averaged dry-air mixing ratio, XCO2 and XCH4, observed by the CLARS FTS, show significant diurnal variability that arises from emissions in the Los Angeles basin and atmospheric transport processes. High-precision data have been collected since August 2011. Here we analyze the annual and seasonal trend of the ratio XCH4:XCO2 in the Los Angeles basin observed by the CLARS FTS from August 2011 to present. This work demonstrates the ability to quantify and track GHG emissions in a megacity using ground-based remote sensing from an elevated platform and the potential for future geostationary satellite missions, such as GCPI, to monitor carbon fluxes in cities.

Methane emissions partially offset “blue carbon” burial in mangroves

PubMed Central

Maher, Damien T.

2018-01-01

Organic matter burial in mangrove forests results in the removal and long-term storage of atmospheric CO2, so-called “blue carbon.” However, some of this organic matter is metabolized and returned to the atmosphere as CH4. Because CH4 has a higher global warming potential than the CO2 fixed in the organic matter, it can offset the CO2 removed via carbon burial. We provide the first estimate of the global magnitude of this offset. Our results show that high CH4 evasion rates have the potential to partially offset blue carbon burial rates in mangrove sediments on average by 20% (sensitivity analysis offset range, 18 to 22%) using the 20-year global warming potential. Hence, mangrove sediment and water CH4 emissions should be accounted for in future blue carbon assessments.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Ridgwell, A.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Pound, M.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Dolan, A.M.; Francis, J.E.; Williams, M.

2011-01-01

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO2 forcing-whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate-or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO2) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate. ?? 2011 The Royal Society.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Ridgwell, Andy; Lunt, Daniel J; Hill, Daniel J; Pound, Matthew J; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M; Francis, Jane E; Williams, Mark

2011-03-13

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race's current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO(2) forcing--whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate--or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO(2) was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO(2)) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO(2) concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO(2) thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

The reduction of atmospheric emissions after the implementation of first Polish nuclear power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cholewiński, Maciej

2018-04-01

In this work the environmental benefits in the atmospheric emissions after the implementation of 3,000 MW nuclear power plants were assessed and presented. To determine the quantity of avoided emissions of CO2, NOx, SO2 and Hg compounds, harmonised stoichiometric combustion model dedicated to solid fuel fired power plant was created. To increase the credibility of the studies, future strict emission standards (Directive 2010/75/EU, BAT documents for LCP) were included as well. In conducted studies, representative samples of 3 different Polish solid fuels were examined (by comprehensive proximate and ultimate analysis) and used in assessment. It was proven that by the replacement of thermal solid fuel power plant by nuclear unit (with annual production rate of 22.4 TWh net) up to 16.4 million tonnes of lignite, 8.9 million tonnes of hard coal or 13.1 million tonnes of solid biomass can be saved. Further, for the case of lignite, the emission, at least, of 21.29 million tonnes of CO2 (6.9% of all Polish emission in 2015), 1,610 tonnes of dust (0.4%), 16,102 tonnes of NOx (2.2%), 16,102 tonnes of SO2 (2.0%) and 564 kg of mercury (5.9%) can be avoided. For selected hard coal, calculated emission savings were equal to 17.60 million tonnes of CO2 (5.7%), 1,357 tonnes of dust (0.4%), 13,566 tonnes of NOx (1.9%), 13,566 tonnes of SO2 (1.7%), 271 kg of mercury (2.9%), and for biomass - equal to 20.04 million tonnes of CO2 (6.5%), 1,471 tonnes of dust (0.4%), 14,712 tonnes of NOx (2.0%), 14,712 tonnes of SO2 (1.8%) and 294 kg of mercury (3.1%).

Fossil-Fuel C02 Emissions Database and Exploration System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krassovski, M.; Boden, T.; Andres, R. J.; Blasing, T. J.

2012-12-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) quantifies the release of carbon from fossil-fuel use and cement production at global, regional, and national spatial scales. The CDIAC emission time series estimates are based largely on annual energy statistics published at the national level by the United Nations (UN). CDIAC has developed a relational database to house collected data and information and a web-based interface to help users worldwide identify, explore and download desired emission data. The available information is divided in two major group: time series and gridded data. The time series data is offered for global, regional and national scales. Publications containing historical energy statistics make it possible to estimate fossil fuel CO2 emissions back to 1751. Etemad et al. (1991) published a summary compilation that tabulates coal, brown coal, peat, and crude oil production by nation and year. Footnotes in the Etemad et al.(1991) publication extend the energy statistics time series back to 1751. Summary compilations of fossil fuel trade were published by Mitchell (1983, 1992, 1993, 1995). Mitchell's work tabulates solid and liquid fuel imports and exports by nation and year. These pre-1950 production and trade data were digitized and CO2 emission calculations were made following the procedures discussed in Marland and Rotty (1984) and Boden et al. (1995). The gridded data presents annual and monthly estimates. Annual data presents a time series recording 1° latitude by 1° longitude CO2 emissions in units of million metric tons of carbon per year from anthropogenic sources for 1751-2008. The monthly, fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates from 1950-2008 provided in this database are derived from time series of global, regional, and national fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (Boden et al. 2011), the references therein, and the methodology described in Andres et al. (2011). The data accessible here take these tabular, national, mass-emissions data and distribute them spatially on a one degree latitude by one degree longitude grid. The within-country spatial distribution is achieved through a fixed population distribution as reported in Andres et al. (1996). This presentation introduces newly build database and web interface, reflects the present state and functionality of the Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions Database and Exploration System as well as future plans for expansion.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Etsushi; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2014-09-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socioeconomic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above preindustrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high-fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full postprocess combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high-fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required; however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise, a conflict of land use with food production is inevitable.

Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-10-01

Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Emissions of Water and Carbon Dioxide from Fossil-Fuel Combustion Contribute Directly to Ocean Mass and Volume Increases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skuce, A. G.

2014-12-01

The direct, non-climate, contribution of carbon dioxide and water emissions from fossil-fuel (FF) combustion to the volume and mass of the oceans has been omitted from estimates of sea-level rise (SLR) in IPCC reports. Following the method of Gornitz et al. (1997), H2O emissions are estimated using carbon emissions from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, along with typical carbon and hydrogen contents of FF. Historic H2O emissions from 1750 to 2010 amount to 430 ±50 PgH2O, equivalent to 1.2 ±0.2 mmSLR. Sometime in this decade the volume of H2O from historic FF combustion will exceed the volume of Lake Erie (480 km3). CO2 dissolved in the ocean increases the seawater volume by 31-33 mL mol-1 CO2. From 1750 to 2010, 370 ±70 PgCO2 from FF combustion has dissolved in the oceans, causing 0.7 ±0.2 mmSLR. Combined H2O+CO2emissions from FF have therefore added 1.9 ±0.4 mm to sea levels in the Industrial Era. Combustion of FF in 2010 resulted in emissions of 32 PgCO2 and 12 ±1 PgH2O. SLR contributions for that year from FF emissions were 0.033 ±0.005 mm from H2O and 0.011±0.003 mm from dissolved CO2, a total rate of 0.044 ±0.008 mm yr-1. Emissions incorporated in socio-economic models underlying the RCP 8.5 and 2.6 scenarios are used along with concentration-driven CMIP5 Earth System Models results to estimate future sea-level rise from FF combustion. From 2010 to 2100, RCP8.5 and 2.6 models respectively produce 9 ±2 mmSLR and 5 ±1 mmSLR from FF H2O+CO2. For perspective, these amounts are larger than the modelled contributions from loss of glaciers in the Andes. The direct contribution of FF emissions to SLR is small (1-2%) relative to current rates and projected estimates under RCP scenarios up to 2100. The magnitude is similar to SLR estimates from other minor sources such as the melting of floating ice, land-use emissions and produced water from oil operations, none of which are currently included in SLR assessments. As uncertainties in observations and contributions are reduced, small contribution factors, hitherto neglected, will become relatively more important in balancing the books. ReferenceGornitz, V., C. Rosenzweig, and D. Hillel, 1997: Effects of anthropogenic intervention in the land hydrological cycle on global sea level rise. Global and Planetary Change, 14, 147-161. DOI: 10.1016/S0921-8181(96)00008-2

Emissions of mercury in Southern Africa derived from long-term observations at Cape Point, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunke, E.-G.; Ebinghaus, R.; Kock, H. H.; Labuschagne, C.; Slemr, F.

2012-05-01

Mercury emissions in South Africa have so far been estimated only by a bottom-up approach from activities and emission factors for different processes. In this paper we derive GEM/CO (GEM being gaseous elemental mercury, Hg0), GEM/CO2, GEM/CH4, CO/CO2, CH4/CO2, and CH4/CO emission ratios from plumes observed during long-term monitoring of these species at Cape Point between March 2007 and December 2009. The average observed GEM/CO, GEM/CO2, GEM/CH4, CO/CO2, CH4/CO2, and CH4/CO emission ratios were 2.40 ± 2.65 pg m-3 ppb-1 (n = 47), 62.7 ± 80.2 pg m-3 ppb-1 (n = 44), 3.61 ± 4.66 pg m-3 ppb-1 (n = 46), 35.6 ± 25.4 ppb ppm-1 (n = 52), 20.2 ± 15.5 ppb ppm-1 (n=48), and 0.876 ± 1.106 ppb ppm-1 (n=42), respectively. The observed CO/CO2, CH4/CO2, and CH4/CO emission ratios agree within the combined uncertainties of the observations and emissions with the ratios calculated from EDGAR (version 4.2) CO2, CO, and CH4 inventories for South Africa and Southern Africa (South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique) in 2007 and 2008 (inventories for 2009 are not available yet). Total elemental mercury emission of 13.1, 15.2, and 16.1 t Hg yr-1 are estimated independently using the GEM/CO, GEM/CO2, and GEM/CH4 emission ratios and the annual mean CO, CO2, and CH4 emissions, respectively, of South Africa in 2007 and 2008. The average of these independent estimates of 14.8 ± 1.5 t GEM yr-1 is much less than the total emission of 257 t Hg yr-1 from older inventories. Considering that emission of GEM represents only 50-78% of all mercury emissions, our estimates come close to the total mercury emission estimates ranging between 40-50 t Hg yr-1 from more recent inventories.

Contrasting effects of ocean acidification on reproduction in reef fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welch, Megan J.; Munday, Philip L.

2016-06-01

Differences in the sensitivity of marine species to ocean acidification will influence the structure of marine communities in the future. Reproduction is critical for individual and population success, yet is energetically expensive and could be adversely affected by rising CO2 levels in the ocean. We investigated the effects of projected future CO2 levels on reproductive output of two species of coral reef damselfish, Amphiprion percula and Acanthochromis polyacanthus. Adult breeding pairs were maintained at current-day control (446 μatm), moderate (652 μatm) or high CO2 (912 μatm) for a 9-month period that included the summer breeding season. The elevated CO2 treatments were consistent with CO2 levels projected by 2100 under moderate (RCP6) and high (RCP8) emission scenarios. Reproductive output increased in A. percula, with 45-75 % more egg clutches produced and a 47-56 % increase in the number of eggs per clutch in the two elevated CO2 treatments. In contrast, reproductive output decreased at high CO2 in Ac. polyacanthus, with approximately one-third as many clutches produced compared with controls. Egg survival was not affected by CO2 for A. percula, but was greater in elevated CO2 for Ac. polyacanthus. Hatching success was also greater for Ac. polyacanthus at elevated CO2, but there was no effect of CO2 treatments on offspring size. Despite the variation in reproductive output, body condition of adults did not differ between control and CO2 treatments in either species. Our results demonstrate different effects of high CO2 on fish reproduction, even among species within the same family. A greater understanding of the variation in effects of ocean acidification on reproductive performance is required to predict the consequences for future populations of marine organisms.

Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years.

PubMed

Ballantyne, A P; Alden, C B; Miller, J B; Tans, P P; White, J W C

2012-08-02

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO(2) measurements, CO(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4 ± 0.8 to 5.0 ± 0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions.

Growth of single-crystalline cobalt silicide nanowires and their field emission property

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

In this work, cobalt silicide nanowires were synthesized by chemical vapor deposition processes on Si (100) substrates with anhydrous cobalt chloride (CoCl2) as precursors. Processing parameters, including the temperature of Si (100) substrates, the gas flow rate, and the pressure of reactions were varied and studied; additionally, the physical properties of the cobalt silicide nanowires were measured. It was found that single-crystal CoSi nanowires were grown at 850°C ~ 880°C and at a lower gas flow rate, while single-crystal Co2Si nanowires were grown at 880°C ~ 900°C. The crystal structure and growth direction were identified, and the growth mechanism was proposed as well. This study with field emission measurements demonstrates that CoSi nanowires are attractive choices for future applications in field emitters. PMID:23819795

Ocean Acidification Differentially Affects the Photosynthesis of Key New England Macrophytes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fachon, E.; Ets-Hokin, J. M.; Donham, E. M.; Price, N.

2016-02-01

While the influence of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on seawater chemistry is detrimental to calcification among CaCO3 reliant organisms such as commercially important shellfish species, non-calcareous macrophytes like seagrasses and seaweeds can experience enhanced growth under elevated pCO2 conditions and may be a substantial, if ephemeral, CO2 sink. Most marine macrophytes rely on enzyme conversion of HCO3- to supply the inorganic carbon necessary for photosynthesis; the ability to down-regulate this energetically expensive carbon acquisition under high pCO2 conditions could determine future species success. We exposed four commercially and ecologically relevant New England macrophytes (Saccharina latissima, Fucus vesiculosus, Ulva lactuca, and Zostera marina) to pre-industrial (280 uatm), present (400 and 520 utam - recorded in Casco Bay) and future (640, 880 and 1120 uatm - as predicted by the IPCC) pCO2 levels in 1.5 hr long respirometry assays after 72 hrs acclimation. CO2 consumption, photosynthetic quotient (Q = CO2 consumed:O2 evolved), and change in carbonate saturation state (Ωcalcite) were calculated for each sample using differences in initial and final carbonate chemistry and dissolved oxygen concentrations. All species experienced increases in rate of CO2 uptake and Q under elevated pCO2 treatments, but response level differed across species. Saccharina latissima had the greatest relative effect on all parameters measured, consuming 4 times more carbon at high pCO2 levels than the lowest performing species. While all macrophytes were able to raise Ωcalcite, the magnitude of change decreased at higher pCO2 levels, suggesting a limitation to the degree to which photosynthesis can locally raise calcification potential for sensitive native or farmed populations of shellfish in the future. The varied responses observed across species have implications for future community structures and for phytoremediation efforts.

Observed anomalous changes on diffuse CO2 emission at the summit crater of Teide volcano (Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain): a geochemical evidence of volcanic unrest?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, N. M.; Melián, G.; Asensio-Ramos, M.; Padrón, E.; Alonso Cótchico, M.; Hernández, P. A.; Rodríguez, F.; D'Auria, L.; García-Merino, M.; Padilla, G. D.; Burns, F.; Amonte, C.; García, E.; García-Hernández, R.; Barrancos, J.; Morales-Ocaña, C.; Calvo, D.; Vela, V.; Pérez, A.

2017-12-01

Tenerife (2034 km2) is the largest of the Canary Islands and hosts a central volcanic complex, Las Cañadas, which is characterized by the eruption of differentiated magmas. Laying inside Las Cañadas a twin stratovolcanoes system Pico Viejo and Teide, has been developed. Although Teide volcano shows weak fumarolic system, volcanic gas emissions observed in the summit area are mainly controlled by high rates of diffuse CO2 degassing. Soil CO2 efflux surveys have been performed at the summit crater of Teide volcano since 1999 according to the accumulation chamber method to monitor changes of volcanic activity. Soil CO2 efflux and soil temperature have been measured in sites homogeneously distributed within an area of about 6,972 m2 inside the summit crater. Historical seismic activity in Tenerife has been mainly characterized by low- to moderate-magnitude events (M <2.5), and most of epicenters clustered in an offshore area SE of Tenerife. Very few earthquakes have occurred in other areas, including Teide volcano. Since November 2016 more than 100 small magnitude earthquakes, with typical features of the microseismicity of hydrothermal systems, at depths usually ranging between 5 and 15 km located beneath Teide volcano have been recorded. On January 6th 2017 a M=2.5 earthquake was recorded in the area, being one of the strongest events recorded since 2004. Between October 11 and December 13, 2016, a continuous increase on the diffuse CO2 emission was registered preceding the occurrence of the 2.5 seismic event, from 21.3±2.0 to 101.7±20.7 t d-1. In Febraury 2017, the diffuse CO2 emission rate showed a maximum value (176±35 t/d) and has remained at relatively high values in the range 67-176 t/d. The observed increase on the diffuse CO2 emission, likely due to the increase of fluid pressure in the hydrothermal-magmatic system of Tenerife, might be a geochemical evidence of a future volcanic unrest at Tenerife Island.

Forcings and feedbacks by land ecosystem changes on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, R. A.

2006-12-01

Vegetation change is involved in climate change through both forcing and feedback processes. Emissions of CO{2} from past net deforestation are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.22 0.51 Wm - 2 to the overall 1.46 Wm - 2 radiative forcing by anthropogenic increases in CO{2} up to the year 2000. Deforestation-induced increases in global mean surface albedo are estimated to exert a radiative forcing of 0 to -0.2 Wm - 2, and dust emissions from land use may exert a radiative forcing of between approximately +0.1 and -0.2 Wm - 2. Changes in the fluxes of latent and sensible heat due to tropical deforestation are simulated to have exerted other local warming effects which cannot be quantified in terms of a Wm - 2 radiative forcing, with the potential for remote effects through changes in atmospheric circulation. With tropical deforestation continuing rapidly, radiative forcing by surface albedo change may become less useful as a measure of the forcing of climate change by changes in the physical properties of the land surface. Although net global deforestation is continuing, future scenarios used for climate change prediction suggest that fossil fuel emissions of CO{2} may continue to increase at a greater rate than land use emissions and therefore continue to increase in dominance as the main radiative forcing. The CO{2} rise may be accelerated by up to 66% by feedbacks arising from global soil carbon loss and forest dieback in Amazonia as a consequence of climate change, and Amazon forest dieback may also exert feedbacks through changes in the local water cycle and increases in dust emissions.

Relevance of Clean Coal Technology for India’s Energy Security: A Policy Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, Amit; Tiwari, Vineet; Vishwanathan, Saritha

2017-07-01

Climate change mitigation regimes are expected to impose constraints on the future use of fossil fuels in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In 2015, 41% of total final energy consumption and 64% of power generation in India came from coal. Although almost a sixth of the total coal based thermal power generation is now super critical pulverized coal technology, the average CO2 emissions from the Indian power sector are 0.82 kg-CO2/kWh, mainly driven by coal. India has large domestic coal reserves which give it adequate energy security. There is a need to find options that allow the continued use of coal while considering the need for GHG mitigation. This paper explores options of linking GHG emission mitigation and energy security from 2000 to 2050 using the AIM/Enduse model under Business-as-Usual scenario. Our simulation analysis suggests that advanced clean coal technologies options could provide promising solutions for reducing CO2 emissions by improving energy efficiencies. This paper concludes that integrating climate change security and energy security for India is possible with a large scale deployment of advanced coal combustion technologies in Indian energy systems along with other measures.

The need for carbon dioxide disposal: A threat and an opportunity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lackner, K.S.; Butt, D.P.; Wendt, C.H.

Ready energy is a cornerstone of modern society. The policies outlined at the recent Kyoto conference have put in question the largest, most readily available and most cost-effective energy resource available. Even if a doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} is deemed acceptable, emission reductions worldwide would have to be drastic. For 10 billion people to share equally into the 1990 emission level would allow a per capita emission of 10% of the current US level. Substantial reductions in CO{sub 2} emissions to the atmosphere are unavoidable. Uncertain is the time available to accomplish this reduction. There are also reasons tomore » be optimistic about the future of coal and other fossil fuels. Barring a surprise technological breakthrough in alternative energies, fossil energy consumption is bound to grow. Political and economic drivers even stronger than the threat of climate change favor economic growth and therefore increased energy consumption. To resolve this apparent contradiction requires new technologies that prevent CO{sub 2} generated by combustion from entering the atmosphere. The authors will outline available technologies and show how the coal industry can adapt to them.« less

Assessing the impact of urban land cover composition on CO2 flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, K.; Hinkle, C.

2013-12-01

Urbanization is an ever increasing trend in global land use change, and has been identified as a key driver of CO2 emissions. Therefore, understanding how urbanization affects CO2 flux across a range of climatic zones and development patterns is critical to projecting the impact of future land use on CO2 flux dynamics. A growing number of studies are applying the eddy covariance method to urban areas to quantify the CO2 flux dynamics of these systems. However, interpretation of eddy covariance data in these urban systems presents a challenge, particularly in areas with high heterogeneity due to a mixing of built and green space. Here we present a study aimed at establishing a relationship between land cover composition and CO2 flux for a heterogeneous urban area of Orlando, FL. CO2 flux has been measured at this site for > 4 years using an open path eddy covariance system. Land cover at this site was classified into built and green space, and relative weight of both land covers were calculated for each 30 min CO2 flux measurement using the Schuepp model and a source area based on +/- one standard deviation of wind direction. The results of this analysis established a relationship between built land cover and CO2 flux within the measured footprint of this urban area. These results, in combination with future projected land use data, will be a valuable resource for providing insight into the impact of future urbanization on CO2 flux dynamics in this region.

State of energy consumption and CO2 emission in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Azad, Abul K; Nashreen, S W; Sultana, J

2006-03-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the most important gases in the atmosphere, and is necessary for sustaining life on Earth. It is also considered to be a major greenhouse gas contributing to global warming and climate change. In this article, energy consumption in Bangladesh is analyzed and estimates are made of CO2 emission from combustion of fossil fuel (coal, gas, petroleum products) for the period 1977 to 1995. International Panel for Climate Change guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories were used in estimating CO2 emission. An analysis of energy data shows that the consumption of fossil fuels in Bangladesh is growing by more than 5% per year. The proportion of natural gas in total energy consumption is increasing, while that of petroleum products and coal is decreasing. The estimated total CO2 release from all primary fossil fuels used in Bangladesh amounted to 5072 Gigagram (Gg) in 1977, and 14 423 Gg in 1995. The total amounts of CO2 released from petroleum products, natural gas, and coal in the period 1977-1995 were 83 026 Gg (50% of CO2 emission), 72 541 Gg (44% of CO2 emission), and 9545 Gg (6% CO2 emission), respectively. A trend in CO2 emission with projections to 2070 is generated. In 2070, total estimated CO2 emission will be 293 260 Gg with a current growth rate of 6.34% y . CO2 emission from fossil fuels is increasing. Petroleum products contribute the majority of CO2 emission load, and although the use of natural gas is increasing rapidly, its contribution to CO2 emission is less than that of petroleum products. The use of coal as well as CO2 emission from coal is expected to gradually decrease.

Overview of NASA's Propulsion 21 Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long-Davis, Mary Jo

2006-01-01

Propulsion 21 technologies contribute to reducing CO2 and NO(x) emissions and noise. Integrated Government/Industry/University research efforts have produced promising initial technical results. Graduate students from 5 partnering universities will benefit from this collaborative research--> educating the future engineering workforce. Phase 2 Efforts scheduled to be completed 3QFY06.

Emission and distribution of phosphine in paddy fields and its relationship with greenhouse gases.

PubMed

Chen, Weiyi; Niu, Xiaojun; An, Shaorong; Sheng, Hong; Tang, Zhenghua; Yang, Zhiquan; Gu, Xiaohong

2017-12-01

Phosphine (PH 3 ), as a gaseous phosphide, plays an important role in the phosphorus cycle in ecosystems. In this study, the emission and distribution of phosphine, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in paddy fields were investigated to speculate the future potential impacts of enhanced greenhouse effect on phosphorus cycle involved in phosphine by the method of Pearson correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. During the whole period of rice growth, there was a significant positive correlation between CO 2 emission flux and PH 3 emission flux (r=0.592, p=0.026, n=14). Similarly, a significant positive correlation of emission flux was also observed between CH 4 and PH 3 (r=0.563, p=0.036, n=14). The linear regression relationship was determined as [PH 3 ] flux =0.007[CO 2 ] flux +0.063[CH 4 ] flux -4.638. No significant differences were observed for all values of matrix-bound phosphine (MBP), soil carbon dioxide (SCO 2 ), and soil methane (SCH 4 ) in paddy soils. However, there was a significant positive correlation between MBP and SCO 2 at heading, flowering and ripening stage. The correlation coefficients were 0.909, 0.890 and 0.827, respectively. In vertical distribution, MBP had the analogical variation trend with SCO 2 and SCH 4 . Through Pearson correlation analysis and multiple stepwise linear regression analysis, pH, redox potential (Eh), total phosphorus (TP) and acid phosphatase (ACP) were identified as the principal factors affecting MBP levels, with correlative rankings of Eh>pH>TP>ACP. The multiple stepwise regression model ([MBP]=0.456∗[ACP]+0.235∗[TP]-1.458∗[Eh]-36.547∗[pH]+352.298) was obtained. The findings in this study hold great reference values to the global biogeochemical cycling of phosphorus in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trade-offs between high yields and greenhouse gas emissions in irrigation wheat cropland in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Z. L.; Wu, L.; Ye, Y. L.; Ma, W. Q.; Chen, X. P.; Zhang, F. S.

2014-04-01

Although the concept of producing higher yields with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a goal that attracts increasing public and scientific attention, the trade-off between high yields and GHG emissions in intensive agricultural production is not well understood. Here, we hypothesize that there exists a mechanistic relationship between wheat grain yield and GHG emission, and that could be transformed into better agronomic management. A total 33 sites of on-farm experiments were investigated to evaluate the relationship between grain yield and GHG emissions using two systems (conventional practice, CP; high-yielding systems, HY) of intensive winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in China. Furthermore, we discussed the potential to produce higher yields with lower GHG emissions based on a survey of 2938 farmers. Compared to the CP system, grain yield was 39% (2352 kg ha-1) higher in the HY system, while GHG emissions increased by only 10%, and GHG emission intensity was reduced by 21%. The current intensive winter wheat system with farmers' practice had a median yield and maximum GHG emission rate of 6050 kg ha-1 and 4783 kg CO2 eq ha-1, respectively; however, this system can be transformed to maintain yields while reducing GHG emissions by 26% (6077 kg ha-1, and 3555 kg CO2 eq ha-1). Further, the HY system was found to increase grain yield by 39% with a simultaneous reduction in GHG emissions by 18% (8429 kg ha-1, and 3905 kg CO2 eq ha-1, respectively). In the future, we suggest moving the trade-off relationships and calculations from grain yield and GHG emissions to new measures of productivity and environmental protection using innovative management technologies.

[Spatial temporal differentiation of product-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions and balance in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: an economic input- output analysis].

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Chen, Cao-cao; Pan, Tao; Liu, Chun-lan; Chen, Long; Sun, Li

2014-09-01

Distinguishing product-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions in the open economic region is the basis for differentiating the emission responsibility, which is attracting increasing attention of decision-makers'attention. The spatial and temporal characteristics of product-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions, as well as carbon balance, in 1997, 2002 and 2007 of JING- JIN-JI region were analyzed by the Economic Input-Output-Life Cycle Assessment model. The results revealed that both the product- based and consumption-based CO2 emissions in the region have been increased by about 4% annually. The percentage of CO2 emissions embodied in trade was 30% -83% , to which the domestic trading added the most. The territorial and consumption-based CO2 emissions in Hebei province were the predominant emission in JING-JIN-JI region, and the increasing speed and emission intensity were stronger than those of Beijing and Tianjin. JING-JIN-JI region was a net inflow region of CO2 emissions, and parts of the emission responsibility were transferred. Beijing and Tianjin were the net importers of CO2 emissions, and Hebei was a net outflow area of CO2 emissions. The key CO2 emission departments in the region were concentrated, and the similarity was great. The inter-regional mechanisms could be set up for joint prevention and control work. - Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water and smelting and pressing of metals had the highest reliability on CO2 emissions, and took on the responsibility of other departments. The EIO-LCA model could be used to analyze the product-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions, which is helpful for the delicate management of regional CO2 emissions reduction and policies making, and stimulating the reduction cooperation at regional scale.

Implications of overestimated anthropogenic CO2 emissions on East Asian and global land CO2 flux inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeki, Tazu; Patra, Prabir K.

2017-12-01

Measurement and modelling of regional or country-level carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are becoming critical for verification of the greenhouse gases emission control. One of the commonly adopted approaches is inverse modelling, where CO2 fluxes (emission: positive flux, sink: negative flux) from the terrestrial ecosystems are estimated by combining atmospheric CO2 measurements with atmospheric transport models. The inverse models assume anthropogenic emissions are known, and thus the uncertainties in the emissions introduce systematic bias in estimation of the terrestrial (residual) fluxes by inverse modelling. Here we show that the CO2 sink increase, estimated by the inverse model, over East Asia (China, Japan, Korea and Mongolia), by about 0.26 PgC year-1 (1 Pg = 1012 g) during 2001-2010, is likely to be an artifact of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing too quickly in China by 1.41 PgC year-1. Independent results from methane (CH4) inversion suggested about 41% lower rate of East Asian CH4 emission increase during 2002-2012. We apply a scaling factor of 0.59, based on CH4 inversion, to the rate of anthropogenic CO2 emission increase since the anthropogenic emissions of both CO2 and CH4 increase linearly in the emission inventory. We find no systematic increase in land CO2 uptake over East Asia during 1993-2010 or 2000-2009 when scaled anthropogenic CO2 emissions are used, and that there is a need of higher emission increase rate for 2010-2012 compared to those calculated by the inventory methods. High bias in anthropogenic CO2 emissions leads to stronger land sinks in global land-ocean flux partitioning in our inverse model. The corrected anthropogenic CO2 emissions also produce measurable reductions in the rate of global land CO2 sink increase post-2002, leading to a better agreement with the terrestrial biospheric model simulations that include CO2-fertilization and climate effects.

Particle and gas emissions from a simulated coal-burning household fire pit.

PubMed

Tian, Linwei; Lucas, Donald; Fischer, Susan L; Lee, S C; Hammond, S Katharine; Koshland, Catherine P

2008-04-01

An open fire was assembled with firebricks to simulate the household fire pit used in rural China, and 15 different coals from this area were burned to measure the gaseous and particulate emissions. Particle size distribution was studied with a microorifice uniform-deposit impactor (MOUDI). Over 90% of the particulate mass was attributed to sub-micrometer particles. The carbon balance method was used to calculate the emission factors. Emission factors for four pollutants (particulate matter, CO2, total hydrocarbons, and NOx) were 2-4 times higherfor bituminous coals than for anthracites. In past inventories of carbonaceous emissions used for climate modeling, these two types of coal were not treated separately. The dramatic emission factor difference between the two types of coal warrants attention in the future development of emission inventories.

Household electricity access a trivial contributor to CO2 emissions growth in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pachauri, Shonali

2014-12-01

Impetus to expand electricity access in developing nations is urgent. Yet aspirations to provide universal access to electricity are often considered potentially conflicting with efforts to mitigate climate change. How much newly electrified, largely poor, households raise emissions, however, remains uncertain. Results from a first retrospective analysis show that improvements in household electricity access contributed 3-4% of national emissions growth in India over the past three decades. Emissions from both the direct and indirect electricity use of more than 650 million people connected since 1981 accounted for 11-25% of Indian emissions growth or, on average, a rise of 0.008-0.018 tons of CO2 per person per year between 1981 and 2011. Although this is a marginal share of global emissions, it does not detract from the importance for developing countries to start reducing the carbon intensities of their electricity generation to ensure sustainable development and avoid future carbon lock-in. Significant ancillary benefits for air quality, health, energy security and efficiency may also make this attractive for reasons other than climate mitigation alone.

Greenhouse gas emissions from diverse Arctic Alaskan lakes are dominated by young carbon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elder, Clayton D.; Xu, Xiaomei; Walker, Jennifer; Schnell, Jordan L.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Townsend-Small, Amy; Arp, Christopher D.; Pohlman, John; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Czimzik, Claudia I.

2018-01-01

Climate-sensitive Arctic lakes have been identified as conduits for ancient permafrost-carbon (C) emissions and as such accelerate warming. However, the environmental factors that control emission pathways and their sources are unclear; this complicates upscaling, forecasting and climate-impact-assessment efforts. Here we show that current whole-lake CH4 and CO2 emissions from widespread lakes in Arctic Alaska primarily originate from organic matter fixed within the past 3–4 millennia (modern to 3,300 ± 70 years before the present), and not from Pleistocene permafrost C. Furthermore, almost 100% of the annual diffusive C flux is emitted as CO2. Although the lakes mostly processed younger C (89 ± 3% of total C emissions), minor contributions from ancient C sources were two times greater in fine-textured versus coarse-textured Pleistocene sediments, which emphasizes the importance of the underlying geological substrate in current and future emissions. This spatially extensive survey considered the environmental and temporal variability necessary to monitor and forecast the fate of ancient permafrost C as Arctic warming progresses.

Greenhouse gas emissions from diverse Arctic Alaskan lakes are dominated by young carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elder, Clayton D.; Xu, Xiaomei; Walker, Jennifer; Schnell, Jordan L.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Townsend-Small, Amy; Arp, Christopher D.; Pohlman, John W.; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Czimczik, Claudia I.

2018-01-01

Climate-sensitive Arctic lakes have been identified as conduits for ancient permafrost-carbon (C) emissions and as such accelerate warming. However, the environmental factors that control emission pathways and their sources are unclear; this complicates upscaling, forecasting and climate-impact-assessment efforts. Here we show that current whole-lake CH4 and CO2 emissions from widespread lakes in Arctic Alaska primarily originate from organic matter fixed within the past 3-4 millennia (modern to 3,300 ± 70 years before the present), and not from Pleistocene permafrost C. Furthermore, almost 100% of the annual diffusive C flux is emitted as CO2. Although the lakes mostly processed younger C (89 ± 3% of total C emissions), minor contributions from ancient C sources were two times greater in fine-textured versus coarse-textured Pleistocene sediments, which emphasizes the importance of the underlying geological substrate in current and future emissions. This spatially extensive survey considered the environmental and temporal variability necessary to monitor and forecast the fate of ancient permafrost C as Arctic warming progresses.

Exploring Multiple Constraints of Anthropogenic Pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, A. F., Jr.; Tang, W.; Silva, S. J.; Raman, A.

2017-12-01

It is imperative that we provide more accurate and consistent analysis of anthropogenic pollution emissions at scales that is relevant to air quality, energy, and environmental policy. Here, we present three proof-of-concept studies that explore observational constraints from ground, aircraft, and satellite-derived measurements of atmospheric composition on bulk characteristics of anthropogenic combustion in megacities and fire regions. We focus on jointly analyzing co-emitted combustion products such as CO2, NO2, CO, SO2, and aerosols from GOSAT, OCO-2, OMI, MOPITT, and MODIS retrievals, in conjunction with USEPA AQS and NASA field campaigns. Each of these constituents exhibit distinct atmospheric signatures that depend on fuel type, combustion technology, process, practices and regulatory policies. Our results show that distinguishable patterns and relationships between the increases in concentrations across the megacity (or enhancements) due to emissions of these constituents enable us to: a) identify trends in combustion activity and efficiency, and b) reconcile discrepancies between state- to country-based emission inventories and modeled concentrations of these constituents. For example, the trends in enhancement ratios of these species reveal combustion emission pathways for China and United States that are not captured by current emission inventories and chemical reanalysis. Analysis of their joint distributions has considerable potential utility in current and future integrated constituent data assimilation and inverse modeling activities for monitoring, verifying, and reporting emissions, particularly for regions with few observations and limited information on local combustion processes. This work also motivates the need for continuous and preferably collocated satellite measurements of atmospheric composition, including CH4 and CO2, and studies related to improving the applicability and integration of these observations with ground- and aircraft- based measurements.

Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

2014-06-01

In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to global CO and THC emissions in the year 2010; this dominance shifts to Africa and South Asia in the future. By the year 2050, for CO and THC emissions, non-road engines contribute the greatest fraction in Asia and the former USSR, while on-road vehicles make the largest contribution in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East; for NOx and PM emissions, shipping controls the trend in most regions. These forecasts include a formal treatment of the factors that drive technology choices in the global vehicle sector and therefore represent a robust and plausible projection of what future emissions may be. These results have important implications for emissions of gases and aerosols that influence air quality, human health, and climate change.

Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

2013-09-01

In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0-4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM). At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to global CO and THC emissions in the year 2010; this dominance shifts to Africa and South Asia in the future. By the year 2050, for CO and THC emissions, non-road engines contribute the greatest fraction in Asia and the Former USSR, while on-road vehicles make the largest contribution in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East; for NOx and PM emissions, shipping controls the trend in most regions. These forecasts include a formal treatment of the factors that drive technology choices in the global vehicle sector and therefore represent a more realistic projection of what future emissions are likely to be. These results have important implications for emissions of gases and aerosols that influence air quality, human health, and climate change.

Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

2013-12-01

In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0-4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM). At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to global CO and THC emissions in the year 2010; this dominance shifts to Africa and South Asia in the future. By the year 2050, for CO and THC emissions, non-road engines contribute the greatest fraction in Asia and the Former USSR, while on-road vehicles make the largest contribution in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East; for NOx and PM emissions, shipping controls the trend in most regions. These forecasts include a formal treatment of the factors that drive technology choices in the global vehicle sector and therefore represent a more realistic projection of what future emissions are likely to be. These results have important implications for emissions of gases and aerosols that influence air quality, human health, and climate change.

[Evaluating the response of yield and evapotranspiration of winter wheat and the adaptation by adjusting crop variety to climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain].

PubMed

Hu, Shi; Mo, Xing-guo; Lin, Zhong-hui

2015-04-01

Based on the multi-model datasets of three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios from IPCC5, the response of yield and accumulative evapotranspiration (ET) of winter wheat to climate change in the future were assessed by VIP model. The results showed that if effects of CO2 enrichment were excluded, temperature rise would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for wheat under the three climate change scenarios, and the wheat yield and ET presented a decrease tendency. The positive effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment could offset most negative effect introduced by temperature rising, indicating that atmospheric CO2 enrichment would be the prime reason of the wheat yield rising in future. In 2050s, wheat yield would increase 14.8% (decrease 2.5% without CO2 fertilization) , and ET would decrease 2.1% under RCP4.5. By adoption of new crop variety with enhanced requirement on accumulative temperature, the wheat yield would increase more significantly with CO2 fertilization, but the water consumption would also increase. Therefore, cultivar breeding new irrigation techniques and agronomical management should be explored under the challenges of climate change in the future.

Carbon dioxide emission rate of Kīlauea Volcano: Implications for primary magma and the summit reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerlach, T.M.; McGee, K.A.; Elias, T.; Sutton, A.J.; Doukas, M.P.

2002-01-01

 We report a CO2 emission rate of 8500 metric tons per day (t d−1) for the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, several times larger than previous estimates. It is based on three sets of measurements over 4 years of synchronous SO2 emission rates and volcanic CO2/SO2concentration ratios for the summit correlation spectrometer (COSPEC) traverse. Volcanic CO2/SO2 for the traverse is representative of the global ratio for summit emissions. The summit CO2 emission rate is nearly constant, despite large temporal variations in summit CO2/SO2 and SO2 emission rates. Summit CO2 emissions comprise most of Kīlauea's total CO2 output (∼9000 t d−1). The bulk CO2 content of primary magma determined from CO2emission and magma supply rate data is ∼0.70 wt %. Most of the CO2 is present as exsolved vapor at summit reservoir depths, making the primary magma strongly buoyant. Turbulent mixing with resident reservoir magma, however, prevents frequent eruptions of buoyant primary magma in the summit region. CO2 emissions confirm that the magma supply enters the edifice through the summit reservoir. A persistent several hundred parts per million CO2 anomaly arises from the entry of magma into the summit reservoir beneath a square kilometer area east of Halemaumau pit crater. Since most of the CO2 in primary magma is degassed in the summit, the summit CO2 emission rate is an effective proxy for the magma supply rate. Both scrubbing of SO2 and solubility controls on CO2and S in basaltic melt cause high CO2/SO2 in summit emissions and spatially uncorrelated distributions of CO2 and SO2 in the summit plume.

From up to date climate and ocean evidence with updated UN emissions projections, the time is now to recommend an immediate massive effort on CO2.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Peter

2017-04-01

This paper provides further compelling evidence for 'an immediate, massive effort to control CO2 emissions, stopped by mid-century' (Cai, Lenton & Lontzek, 2016). Atmospheric CO2 which is above 405 ppm (actual and trend) still accelerating, despite flat emissions since 2014, with a 2015 >3ppm unprecedented spike in Earth history (A. Glikson),is on the worst case IPCC scenario. Atmospheric methane is increasing faster than its past 20-year rate, almost on the worst-case IPCC AR5 scenario (Global Carbon Project, 2016). Observed effects of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution are increasing faster. This includes long-lived atmospheric GHG concentrations, radiative forcing, surface average warming, Greenland ice sheet melting, Arctic daily sea ice anomaly, ocean heat (and rate of going deeper), ocean acidification, and ocean de-oxygenation. The atmospheric GHG concentration of 485 ppm CO2 eq (WMO, 2015) commits us to 'about 2°C' equilibrium (AR5). 2°C by 2100 would require 'substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades' (AR5). Instead, the May 2016 UN update on 'intended' national emissions targets under the Paris Agreement projects global emissions will be 16% higher by 2030 and the November 2016 International Energy Agency update projects energy-related CO2 eq emissions will be 30% higher by 2030, leading to 'around 2.7°C by 2100 and above 3°C thereafter'. Climate change feedback will be positive this century and multiple large vulnerable sources of amplifying feedback exist (AR5). 'Extensive tree mortality and widespread forest die-back linked to drought and temperature stress have been documented on all vegetated continents' (AR5). 'Recent studies suggest a weakening of the land sink, further amplifying atmospheric growth of CO2' (WMO, 2016). Under all but the best-case IPCC AR5 scenario, surface temperature is projected to increase above 2°C by 2100, which is above 3°C (equilibrium) after 2100, with ocean acidification still increasing at 2100. Ocean heat is increasing under all scenarios at 2100. For all producing regions 'With or without adaptation, negative impacts on average crop yields become likely from the 2030s' (AR5). Crop models do not capture all adverse effects. The climate change of 2030 is practically locked in. NASA NEX downscaled daily maximum temperature projections at 1.5°C are incompatible with today's crop yields in major agricultural regions. Climate-change-related impacts from extreme events are high at 1.5°C (AR5) and add to modeled crop declines. 'Some unique and threatened systems are already at risk from climate change (high confidence)' with 'risk of severe consequences' higher with warming of around 1.5°C (AR5). At today's surface temperature increase, 'risks associated with tipping points become moderate' and 'increase disproportionately' as temperature increases above 1.5°C (AR5). According to mitigation projections, global emissions would decline forthwith for a better than 66% chance of a 2°C limit by 2100 (over 3°C after 2100). Failure to do so would risk the future sustainability of civilization and the human population. The IPCC does not make recommendations so this falls on scientists. By recommending immediate (emergency) massive action on CO2, the science community would make a momentous contribution to the future of humanity.

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

2013-12-01

The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and demand systems. As well, endogenous adaptation in the agricultural sector--mostly through inter-regional shifting in production and changes in trade patterns--limits the shock of climate impacts to consumers. Global average climate impacts on wheat yields for the four emissions scenarios, using base-year weights (asterisks) and using the endogenous land allocations in GCAM (filled diamonds)

Greenhouse gas emissions from solid waste in Beijing: The rising trend and the mitigation effects by management improvements.

PubMed

Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Wen

2016-04-01

Disposal of solid waste poses great challenges to city managements. Changes in solid waste composition and disposal methods, along with urbanisation, can certainly affect greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste. In this study, we analysed the changes in the generation, composition and management of municipal solid waste in Beijing. The changes of greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management were thereafter calculated. The impacts of municipal solid waste management improvements on greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation effects of treatment techniques of greenhouse gas were also analysed. Municipal solid waste generation in Beijing has increased, and food waste has constituted the most substantial component of municipal solid waste over the past decade. Since the first half of 1950s, greenhouse gas emission has increased from 6 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)to approximately 200 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)in the early 1990s and 2145 CO2-eq Gg y(-1)in 2013. Landfill gas flaring, landfill gas utilisation and energy recovery in incineration are three techniques of the after-emission treatments in municipal solid waste management. The scenario analysis showed that three techniques might reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 22.7%, 4.5% and 9.8%, respectively. In the future, if waste disposal can achieve a ratio of 4:3:3 by landfill, composting and incineration with the proposed after-emission treatments, as stipulated by the Beijing Municipal Waste Management Act, greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste will decrease by 41%. © The Author(s) 2016.

A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

2016-12-01

A comprehensive regional assessment of emission sources is a major hindrance for a complete understanding of the air quality and for designing appropriate mitigation solutions in Nepal, a landlocked country in foothills of the Himalaya. This study attempts, for the first time, to develop a fine resolution (1km × 1km) present day emission inventory of Nepal with a higher tier approach using our understanding of the currently used technologies, energy consumption used in various energy sectors and its resultant emissions. We estimate present-day emissions of aerosols (BC, OC and PM2.5), trace gases (SO2, CO, NOX and VOC) and greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) from non-open burning sources (residential, industry, transport, commercial) and open-burning sources (agriculture and municipal solid waste burning) for the base year 2013. We used methodologies published in literatures, and both primary and secondary data to estimate energy production and consumption in each sector and its sub-sector and associated emissions. Local practices and activity rates are explicitly accounted for energy consumption and dispersed often under-documented emission sources like brick manufacturing, diesel generator sets, mining, stone crushing, solid waste burning and diesel use in farms are considered. Apart from pyrogenic source of CH4 emissions, methanogenic and enteric fermentation sources are also accounted. Region-specific and newly measured country-specific emission factors are used for emission estimates. Activity based proxies are used for spatial and temporal distribution of emissions. Preliminary results suggest that 80% of national energy consumption is in residential sector followed by industry (8%) and transport (7%). More than 90% of the residential energy is supplied by biofuel which needs immediate attention to reduce emissions. Further, the emissions would be compared with other contemporary studies, regional and global datasets and used in the model simulations to understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

Investigation of CO, C2H6 and aerosols over Eastern Canada during BORTAS 2011 using ground-based and satellite-based observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffin, Debora; Franklin, Jonathan; Parrington, Mark; Whaley, Cynthia; Hopper, Jason; Lesins, Glen; Tereszchuk, Keith; Walker, Kaley A.; Drummond, James R.; Palmer, Paul; Strong, Kimberly; Duck, Thomas J.; Abboud, Ihab; Dan, Lin; O'Neill, Norm; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre; Bernath, Peter F.; Hyer, Edward; Kliever, Jenny

2013-04-01

We present the results of total column measurements of CO and C2H6 and aerosol optical depth (AOD) during the Quantifying the impact of BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites (BORTAS-B) campaign over Eastern Canada. Ground-based observations, using Fourier transform spectrometers (FTSs) and sun photometers, were carried out in July and August 2011. They were taken in Halifax, Nova Scotia, which is an ideal location to monitor the outflow of boreal fires from North America, and in Toronto, Ontario. Measurements of enhanced fine mode AOD were highly correlated with enhancements in coincident trace gas (CO and C2H6) observations between 19 and 21 July 2011, which is typical for a smoke plume event. In this study, we will focus on the identification of the origin and the transport of this smoke plume. We use back-trajectories calculated by the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) as well as FLEXPART forward-trajectories to demonstrate that the enhanced CO, C2H6 and fine mode AOD seen near Halifax and Toronto did originate from forest fires in Northwestern Ontario, that occurred between 17 and 19 July 2011. In addition, total column measurements of CO from the satellite-borne Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) have been used to trace the smoke plume and to confirm the origin of the CO enhancement. Furthermore, the emission ratio (ERC2H6-CO) and the emission factor (EFC2H6) of C2H6 (with respect to the CO emission) were estimated from these ground-based observations. The C2H6 emission results from boreal fires in Northwestern Ontario agree well with C2H6 emission measurements from other boreal regions, and are relatively high compared to other geographical regions. The ground-based CO and C2H6 observations were compared with output from the 3-D global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem, using the inventory of the Fire Locating And Monitoring of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE). Good agreement was found for the magnitude of the enhancement of the total columns of CO between the measured and modelled results; however, a small shift in time of approximately 6 h of the arrival of the plume over Halifax is apparent between the results. The modeled C2H6 columns are systematically lower than the observations from the ground-based FTSs. It is possible that this difference between the model output and observations is due to the extra-tropical (rather than specific boreal) fire emission ratio used in the GEOS-Chem simulation, which seems to underestimate the C2H6 emission, derived from the presented ground-based observations. This suggests that a finer categorization of extra-tropical biomass burning is necessary and should be considered in future model simulations.

Interactive effects of environmental change and management strategies on regional forest carbon emissions.

PubMed

Hudiburg, Tara W; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Thornton, Peter E; Law, Beverly E

2013-11-19

Climate mitigation activities in forests need to be quantified in terms of the long-term effects on forest carbon stocks, accumulation, and emissions. The impacts of future environmental change and bioenergy harvests on regional forest carbon storage have not been quantified. We conducted a comprehensive modeling study and life-cycle assessment of the impacts of projected changes in climate, CO2 concentration, and N deposition, and region-wide forest management policies on regional forest carbon fluxes. By 2100, if current management strategies continue, then the warming and CO2 fertilization effect in the given projections result in a 32-68% increase in net carbon uptake, overshadowing increased carbon emissions from projected increases in fire activity and other forest disturbance factors. To test the response to new harvesting strategies, repeated thinnings were applied in areas susceptible to fire to reduce mortality, and two clear-cut rotations were applied in productive forests to provide biomass for wood products and bioenergy. The management strategies examined here lead to long-term increased carbon emissions over current harvesting practices, although semiarid regions contribute little to the increase. The harvest rates were unsustainable. This comprehensive approach could serve as a foundation for regional place-based assessments of management effects on future carbon sequestration by forests in other locations.

Valuation of clean energy investments: The case of the Zero Emission Coal (ZEC) technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeboah, Frank Ernest

Today, coal-fired power plants produce about 55% of the electrical energy output in the U.S. Demand for electricity is expected to grow in future. Coal can and will continue to play a substantial role in the future global energy supply, despite its high emission of greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2 etc.) and low thermal energy conversion efficiency of about 37%. This is due to the fact that, it is inexpensive and global reserves are abundant. Furthermore, cost competitive and environmentally acceptable energy alternatives are lacking. New technologies could also make coal-fired plants more efficient and environmentally benign. One such technology is the Zero Emission Carbon (ZEC) power plant, which is currently being proposed by the ZECA Corporation. How much will such a technology cost? How competitive will it be in the electric energy market when used as a technology for mitigating CO2 emission? If there were regulatory mechanisms, such as carbon tax to regulate CO2 emission, what would be the minimum carbon tax that should be imposed? How will changes in energy policy affect the implementation of the ZEC technology? How will the cost of the ZEC technology be affected, if a switch from coal (high emission-intensive fuel) to natural gas (low emission-intensive fuel) were to be made? This work introduces a model that can be used to analyze and assess the economic value of a ZEC investment using valuation techniques employed in the electric energy industry such as revenue requirement (e.g. cost-of-service). The study concludes that the cost of service for ZEC technology will be about 95/MWh at the current baseline scenario of using fuel cell as the power generation system and coal as the primary fuel, and hence will not be competitive in the energy markets. For the technology to be competitive, fuel cell capital cost should be as low as 500/kW with a lifetime of 20 years or more, the cost of capital should be around 10%, and a carbon tax of 30/t of CO2 should be in place. Under these conditions, the cost of service would be 54/MWh and ZEC technology would become as competitive as the highly efficient combined-cycle gas-turbine technology.

Contrasting genotypes, soil amendments, and their interactive effects on short-term total soil CO2 efflux in a 3-year-old Pinus taeda L

Treesearch

Michael C. Tyree; John R. Seiler; Chris A. Maier

2014-01-01

Intensively managed pine forests in the southeastern United States are considered an important C sink and may play a critical role in offsetting increased global CO2 emissions. The combination of improved silvicultural methods and the use of superior genotypes are estimated to result in future volume gains of up to 60 percent. However to date, no work has looked at...

Does Historical Urban Density Explain the Variation in Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions Across U.S. Cities?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, K. B.

2013-12-01

The shape a city takes can have long-term impacts. The built environment is durable, and urban infrastructure is costly to alter post-construction, so decisions made early in a city's history have a lasting effect. Cities are some of the biggest aggregate sources of CO2 emissions but are also the areas with the lowest per capita emissions. Even though per capita emissions in urban areas are less than their rural counterparts, the variation in emissions across cities is drastic and understanding this variation can improve the way we build and plan cities. Research has been conducted on how density correlates with per capita emissions, but little has been done on how historical growth has influenced emissions. Using historical census data and the Vulcan Project's fossil fuel CO2 emissions data product, I investigate in greater detail whether historical population density in U.S. cities has had a significant impact on future CO2 emissions in the urban area and in the surrounding region. The census data includes all places that have reported a population of over 100,000 people in any decennial census between 1790 and 2000 and the land area the year that the city first crosses that 100,000-population threshold. This data is used to create the historical density measure. The Vulcan CO2 emissions data is broken down by sector. For this project I use the residential, commercial, and transportation (on road and non-road) emissions sectors on a 10x10km grid in 2002. I also control for regional variation in heating and cooling days, current urban density, average house age, median income, and variation in residential heating (gas, electric, fuel oil, and coal) as these are all known correlates of carbon dioxide emissions. Understanding if historical density better explains the variation in per capita carbon dioxide emissions across cities will help urban planners and city governments decide if it is appropriate to regulate growth during the initial boom of a city, a regulation that can be costly.

Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power.

PubMed

Kharecha, Pushker A; Hansen, James E

2013-05-07

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420,000-7.04 million deaths and 80-240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Historical and Projected Nuclear Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James E.

2013-01-01

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000-7.04 million deaths and 80-240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

Water for electricity in India: A multi-model study of future challenges and linkages to climate change mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Srinivasan, Shweta; Kholod, Nazar; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

This paper provides projections of water withdrawals and consumption for electricity generation in India through 2050. Based on the results from five energy-economic modeling teams, the paper explores the implications of economic growth, power plant cooling policies, and electricity CO 2 emissions reductions on water withdrawals and consumption. To understand how different modeling approaches derive different results for energy-water interactions, the five teams used harmonized assumptions regarding economic and population growth, the distribution of power plants by cooling technologies, and withdrawals and consumption intensities. The multi-model study provides robust results regarding the different but potentially complementary implications of cooling technologymore » policies and efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions. The water implications of CO 2 emissions reductions depend critically on the approach to these reductions. Focusing on wind and solar power reduces consumption and withdrawals, a focus on nuclear power increases both, and a focus on hydroelectric power could increase consumptive losses through evaporation. Policies focused specifically on cooling water can have substantial and complementary impacts.« less

From biota to chemistry and climate: towards a comprehensive description of trace gas exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Bondeau, A.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Foster, P.; Gedney, N.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Prentice, I. C.; Sanderson, M.; Thonicke, K.; Wania, R.; Zaehle, S.

2010-01-01

Exchange of non-CO2 trace gases between the land surface and the atmosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Recent studies have highlighted its importance for interpretation of glacial-interglacial ice-core records, the simulation of the pre-industrial and present atmosphere, and the potential for large climate-chemistry and climate-aerosol feedbacks in the coming century. However, spatial and temporal variations in trace gas emissions and the magnitude of future feedbacks are a major source of uncertainty in atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climate science. To reduce such uncertainties Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are currently being expanded to mechanistically represent processes relevant to non-CO2 trace gas exchange between land biota and the atmosphere. In this paper we present a review of important non-CO2 trace gas emissions, the state-of-the-art in DGVM modelling of processes regulating these emissions, identify key uncertainties for global scale model applications, and discuss a methodology for model integration and evaluation.

From biota to chemistry and climate: towards a comprehensive description of trace gas exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Bondeau, A.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Foster, P.; Gedney, N.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Prentice, I. C.; Sanderson, M.; Thonicke, K.; Wania, R.; Zaehle, S.

2009-07-01

Exchange of non-CO2 trace gases between the land surface and the atmosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Recent studies have highlighted its importance for interpretation of glacial-interglacial ice-core records, the simulation of the pre-industrial and present atmosphere, and the potential for large climate-chemistry and climate-aerosol feedbacks in the coming century. However, spatial and temporal variations in trace gas emissions and the magnitude of future feedbacks are a major source of uncertainty in atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climate science. To reduce such uncertainties Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are currently being expanded to mechanistically represent processes relevant to non-CO2 trace gas exchange between land biota and the atmosphere. In this paper we present a review of important non-CO2 trace gas emissions, the state-of-the-art in DGVM modelling of processes regulating these emissions, identify key uncertainties for global scale model applications, and discuss a methodology for model integration and evaluation.

Water for electricity in India: A multi-model study of future challenges and linkages to climate change mitigation

DOE PAGES

Srinivasan, Shweta; Kholod, Nazar; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; ...

2017-05-05

This paper provides projections of water withdrawals and consumption for electricity generation in India through 2050. Based on the results from five energy-economic modeling teams, the paper explores the implications of economic growth, power plant cooling policies, and electricity CO 2 emissions reductions on water withdrawals and consumption. To understand how different modeling approaches derive different results for energy-water interactions, the five teams used harmonized assumptions regarding economic and population growth, the distribution of power plants by cooling technologies, and withdrawals and consumption intensities. The multi-model study provides robust results regarding the different but potentially complementary implications of cooling technologymore » policies and efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions. The water implications of CO 2 emissions reductions depend critically on the approach to these reductions. Focusing on wind and solar power reduces consumption and withdrawals, a focus on nuclear power increases both, and a focus on hydroelectric power could increase consumptive losses through evaporation. Policies focused specifically on cooling water can have substantial and complementary impacts.« less

Greenhouse gas contribution of municipal solid waste collection: A case study in the city of Istanbul, Turkey.

PubMed

Korkut, Nafiz E; Yaman, Cevat; Küçükağa, Yusuf; Jaunich, Megan K; Demir, İbrahim

2018-02-01

This article estimates greenhouse gas emissions and global warming factors resulting from collection of municipal solid waste to the transfer stations or landfills in Istanbul for the year of 2015. The aim of this study is to quantify and compare diesel fuel consumption and estimate the greenhouse gas emissions and global warming factors associated with municipal solid waste collection of the 39 districts of Istanbul. Each district's greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the provision and combustion of diesel fuel was estimated by considering the number of collection trips and distances to municipal solid waste facilities. The estimated greenhouse gases and global warming factors for the districts varied from 61.2 to 2759.1 t CO 2 -eq and from 4.60 to 15.20 kg CO 2 -eq t -1 , respectively. The total greenhouse gas emission was estimated as 46.4E3 t CO 2 -eq. Lastly, the collection data from the districts was used to parameterise a collection model that can be used to estimate fuel consumption associated with municipal solid waste collection. This mechanistic model can then be used to predict future fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions associated with municipal solid waste collection based on projected population, waste generation, and distance to transfer stations and landfills. The greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by decreasing the trip numbers and trip distances, building more transfer stations around the city, and making sure that the collection trucks are full in each trip.

Direct estimation of diffuse gaseous emissions from coal fires: current methods and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Engle, Mark A.; Olea, Ricardo A.; O'Keefe, Jennifer M. K.; Hower, James C.; Geboy, Nicholas J.

2013-01-01

Coal fires occur in nature spontaneously, contribute to increases in greenhouse gases, and emit atmospheric toxicants. Increasing interest in quantifying coal fire emissions has resulted in the adaptation and development of specialized approaches and adoption of numerical modeling techniques. Overview of these methods for direct estimation of diffuse gas emissions from coal fires is presented in this paper. Here we take advantage of stochastic Gaussian simulation to interpolate CO2 fluxes measured using a dynamic closed chamber at the Ruth Mullins coal fire in Perry County, Kentucky. This approach allows for preparing a map of diffuse gas emissions, one of the two primary ways that gases emanate from coal fires, and establishing the reliability of the study both locally and for the entire fire. Future research directions include continuous and automated sampling to improve quantification of gaseous coal fire emissions.

What, Where, When, Who and How: Accounting for Biogenic CO2 Emissions Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohrel, S. B.

2013-12-01

The world is facing a future with a changing climate as well as increasing energy needs. Many countries, including the United States, are therefore considering an increased role of biomass in domestic energy portfolios. Accounting for emissions related to biomass production and use for energy is a complex issue: determining the extent to which biomass utilization can contribute to meeting energy needs while not contributing additional GHG emissions to the atmosphere necessitates further research. Such analysis becomes more challenging when evaluating biogenic feedstocks with long rotations (i.e., woody biomass). Detailed analysis and new accounting methods are needed in order to better assess and understand the potential implications of increased bioenergy utilization in the United States energy portfolio. In response to the EPA's 2011 Draft Accounting Framework for Biogenic CO2 Emissions from Stationary Sources, the Biogenic Carbon Emissions Panel (BCE Panel) appointed by the Science Advisory Board (2013) found that 'Carbon neutrality cannot be assumed for all biomass energy a priori. There are circumstances in which biomass is grown, harvested and combusted in a carbon neutral fashion but carbon neutrality is not an appropriate a priori assumption; it is a conclusion that should be reached only after considering a particular feedstock's production and consumption cycle. There is considerable heterogeneity in feedstock types, sources and production methods and thus net biogenic carbon emissions will vary considerably.' In that light, this study discusses the current policy discussion on biogenic feedstock use for energy in the United States. It then evaluates the question: how can we account for stationary source biogenic CO2 emissions while considering the biological cycling of carbon on the biogenic feedstock production landscape? The analysis discusses current biogenic feedstock usage in the U.S. and potential future impacts of increased biogenic feedstock production on U.S. land use, supply of non-energy commodities (e.g., timber, food crops), and related GHG emission fluxes. This paper first assesses current methods for accounting for land use sector biogenic CO2 emissions (i.e., IPCC approach). Based on the finding that no current methods exist for linking stationary source emissions with the land producing biogenic feedstocks, a unique method is needed that takes into consideration the biological cycling of carbon when accounting for biogenic emissions from energy use. The paper then describes the key technical and scientific considerations that should be taken in account, such as: the implications of baseline chosen; the important roles of temporal and spatial scales; emissions fluxes during feedstock production as well as transportation, storage and processing; the role of land use management and change, etc. It also discusses how these considerations can vary depending on feedstock type (e.g., long versus short rotation).

40 CFR 98.193 - Calculating GHG emissions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... (General Stationary Fuel Combustion Sources) the combustion CO2 emissions from each lime kiln according to... must calculate and report the annual process CO2 emissions from all lime kilns combined using the... combustion CO2 emissions from all lime kilns by operating and maintaining a CEMS to measure CO2 emissions...

Reducing the cost of Ca-based direct air capture of CO2.

PubMed

Zeman, Frank

2014-10-07

Direct air capture, the chemical removal of CO2 directly from the atmosphere, may play a role in mitigating future climate risk or form the basis of a sustainable transportation infrastructure. The current discussion is centered on the estimated cost of the technology and its link to "overshoot" trajectories, where atmospheric CO2 levels are actively reduced later in the century. The American Physical Society (APS) published a report, later updated, estimating the cost of a one million tonne CO2 per year air capture facility constructed today that highlights several fundamental concepts of chemical air capture. These fundamentals are viewed through the lens of a chemical process that cycles between removing CO2 from the air and releasing the absorbed CO2 in concentrated form. This work builds on the APS report to investigate the effect of modifications to the air capture system based on suggestions in the report and subsequent publications. The work shows that reduced carbon electricity and plastic packing materials (for the contactor) may have significant effects on the overall price, reducing the APS estimate from $610 to $309/tCO2 avoided. Such a reduction does not challenge postcombustion capture from point sources, estimated at $80/tCO2, but does make air capture a feasible alternative for the transportation sector and a potential negative emissions technology. Furthermore, air capture represents atmospheric reductions rather than simply avoided emissions.

Warming and pCO2 effects on Florida stone crab larvae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gravinese, Philip M.; Enochs, Ian C.; Manzello, Derek P.; van Woesik, Robert

2018-05-01

Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing ocean temperatures and the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), resulting in more acidic waters. It is presently unknown how elevated temperature and pCO2 will influence the early life history stages of the majority of marine coastal species. We investigated the combined effect of elevated temperature (30 °C control and 32 °C treatment) and elevated pCO2 (450 μatm control and 1100 μatm treatment) on the (i) growth, (ii) survival, (iii) condition, and (iv) morphology of larvae of the commercially important Florida stone crab, Menippe mercenaria. At elevated temperature, larvae exhibited a significantly shorter molt stage, and elevated pCO2 caused stage-V larvae to delay metamorphosis to post-larvae. On average, elevated pCO2 resulted in a 37% decrease in survivorship relative to the control; however the effect of elevated temperature reduced larval survivorship by 71%. Exposure to both elevated temperature and pCO2 reduced larval survivorship by 80% relative to the control. Despite this, no significant differences were detected in the condition or morphology of stone crab larvae when subjected to elevated temperature and pCO2 treatments. Although elevated pCO2 could result in a reduction in larval supply, future increases in seawater temperatures are even more likely to threaten the future sustainability of the stone-crab fishery.

Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009.

PubMed

Vijayaraghavan, Krish; DenBleyker, Allison; Ma, Lan; Lindhjem, Chris; Yarwood, Greg

2014-07-01

On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995-2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO(x), and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995-2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO(x) emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001-2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO(x), VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of the benefits of past control measures.

Low-Computation Strategies for Extracting CO2 Emission Trends from Surface-Level Mixing Ratio Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shusterman, A.; Kim, J.; Lieschke, K.; Newman, C.; Cohen, R. C.

2017-12-01

Global momentum is building for drastic, regulated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decade. With this increasing regulation comes a clear need for increasingly sophisticated monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) strategies capable of enforcing and optimizing emissions-related policy, particularly as it applies to urban areas. Remote sensing and/or activity-based emission inventories can offer MRV insights for entire sectors or regions, but are not yet sophisticated enough to resolve unexpected trends in specific emitters. Urban surface monitors can offer the desired proximity to individual greenhouse gas sources, but due to the densely-packed nature of typical urban landscapes, surface observations are rarely representative of a single source. Most previous efforts to decompose these complex signals into their contributing emission processes have involved inverse atmospheric modeling techniques, which are computationally intensive and believed to depend heavily on poorly understood a priori estimates of error covariance. Here we present a number of transparent, low-computation approaches for extracting source-specific emissions estimates from signals with a variety of nearfield influences. Using observations from the first several years of the BErkeley Atmospheric CO2 Observation Network (BEACO2N), we demonstrate how to exploit strategic pairings of monitoring "nodes," anomalous wind conditions, and well-understood temporal variations to hone in on specific CO2 sources of interest. When evaluated against conventional, activity-based bottom-up emission inventories, these strategies are seen to generate quantitatively rigorous emission estimates. With continued application as the BEACO2N data set grows in time and space, these approaches offer a promising avenue for optimizing greenhouse gas mitigation strategies into the future.

Carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity sector in major countries: a decomposition analysis.

PubMed

Li, Xiangzheng; Liao, Hua; Du, Yun-Fei; Wang, Ce; Wang, Jin-Wei; Liu, Yanan

2018-03-01

The electric power sector is one of the primary sources of CO 2 emissions. Analyzing the influential factors that result in CO 2 emissions from the power sector would provide valuable information to reduce the world's CO 2 emissions. Herein, we applied the Divisia decomposition method to analyze the influential factors for CO 2 emissions from the power sector from 11 countries, which account for 67% of the world's emissions from 1990 to 2013. We decompose the influential factors for CO 2 emissions into seven areas: the emission coefficient, energy intensity, the share of electricity generation, the share of thermal power generation, electricity intensity, economic activity, and population. The decomposition analysis results show that economic activity, population, and the emission coefficient have positive roles in increasing CO 2 emissions, and their contribution rates are 119, 23.9, and 0.5%, respectively. Energy intensity, electricity intensity, the share of electricity generation, and the share of thermal power generation curb CO 2 emissions and their contribution rates are 17.2, 15.7, 7.7, and 2.8%, respectively. Through decomposition analysis for each country, economic activity and population are the major factors responsible for increasing CO 2 emissions from the power sector. However, the other factors from developed countries can offset the growth in CO 2 emissions due to economic activities.

Synthetic biology for CO2 fixation.

PubMed

Gong, Fuyu; Cai, Zhen; Li, Yin

2016-11-01

Recycling of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into fuels and chemicals is a potential approach to reduce CO 2 emission and fossil-fuel consumption. Autotrophic microbes can utilize energy from light, hydrogen, or sulfur to assimilate atmospheric CO 2 into organic compounds at ambient temperature and pressure. This provides a feasible way for biological production of fuels and chemicals from CO 2 under normal conditions. Recently great progress has been made in this research area, and dozens of CO 2 -derived fuels and chemicals have been reported to be synthesized by autotrophic microbes. This is accompanied by investigations into natural CO 2 -fixation pathways and the rapid development of new technologies in synthetic biology. This review first summarizes the six natural CO 2 -fixation pathways reported to date, followed by an overview of recent progress in the design and engineering of CO 2 -fixation pathways as well as energy supply patterns using the concept and tools of synthetic biology. Finally, we will discuss future prospects in biological fixation of CO 2 .

Eco-efficient agriculture for producing higher yields with lower greenhouse gas emissions: a case study of intensive irrigation wheat production in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Z. L.; Ye, Y. L.; Ma, W. Q.; Chen, X. P.; Zhang, F. S.

2013-10-01

Although the concept of producing higher yields with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a goal that attracts increasing public and scientific attention, the tradeoff between crop productivity and GHG emissions in intensive agricultural production is not well understood. In this study, we investigated 33 sites of on-farm experiments to evaluate the tradeoff between grain yield and GHG emissions using two systems (conventional practice, CP; high-yielding systems, HY) of intensive irrigation wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in China. Furthermore, we discussed the potential to produce higher yields with lower GHG emissions based on a survey of 2938 farmers. However, in both the HY and CP systems, wheat grain yield response to GHG emissions fit a linear-plateau model, whereas the curve for grain yield from the HY system was always higher than that from the CP system. Compared to the CP system, grain yield was 44% (2.6 Mg ha-1) higher in the HY system, while GHG emissions increased by only 2.5%, and GHG emission intensity was reduced by 29%. The current intensive irrigation wheat system with farmers' practice had a median yield and maximum GHG emission rate of 6.05 Mg ha-1 and 4783 kg CO2 eq ha-1, respectively; however, this system can be transformed to maintain yields while reducing GHG emissions by 40% (5.96 Mg ha-1, and 2890 kg CO2 eq ha-1). Further, the HY system was found to increase grain yield by 41% with a simultaneous reduction in GHG emissions by 38% (8.55 Mg ha-1, and 2961 kg CO2 eq ha-1, respectively). In the future, we suggest moving the tradeoff relationships and calculations from grain yield and GHG emissions, to new measures of productivity and environmental protection using innovative management technologies. This shift in focus is critical to achieve food and environmental security.

Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions

PubMed Central

Davis, Steven J.; Caldeira, Ken

2010-01-01

CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the primary cause of global warming. Much attention has been focused on the CO2 directly emitted by each country, but relatively little attention has been paid to the amount of emissions associated with the consumption of goods and services in each country. Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions differs from traditional, production-based inventories because of imports and exports of goods and services that, either directly or indirectly, involve CO2 emissions. Here, using the latest available data, we present a global consumption-based CO2 emissions inventory and calculations of associated consumption-based energy and carbon intensities. We find that, in 2004, 23% of global CO2 emissions, or 6.2 gigatonnes CO2, were traded internationally, primarily as exports from China and other emerging markets to consumers in developed countries. In some wealthy countries, including Switzerland, Sweden, Austria, the United Kingdom, and France, >30% of consumption-based emissions were imported, with net imports to many Europeans of >4 tons CO2 per person in 2004. Net import of emissions to the United States in the same year was somewhat less: 10.8% of total consumption-based emissions and 2.4 tons CO2 per person. In contrast, 22.5% of the emissions produced in China in 2004 were exported, on net, to consumers elsewhere. Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions demonstrates the potential for international carbon leakage. Sharing responsibility for emissions among producers and consumers could facilitate international agreement on global climate policy that is now hindered by concerns over the regional and historical inequity of emissions. PMID:20212122

The difference of level CO2 emissions from the transportation sector between weekdays and weekend days on the City Centre of Pemalang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawitri, E.; Hardiman, G.; Buchori, I.

2017-06-01

The high growth of human activity potentially increases the number of vehicles and the use of fossil fuels that contribute the increase of CO2 emissions in atmosphere. Controlling CO2 emission that causes greenhouse effect becomes the main agenda of Indonesian Government. The first step control CO2 emissions is by measuring the level of CO2 emissions, especially CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in the transport sector. This research aims to assess the level of CO2 emissions from transportation sector on the main roads in the city centre of Pemalang both in weekdays and weekend days. The methods applied to calculate CO2 emissions using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 method. For this, a survey on the number of vehicles passing through the main roads using hand tally counter is firstly done. The results, CO2 emissions in working day, i.e. 49,006.95 tons/year compared to weekend i.e. 38,865.50 tons/year.

Recent advances in catalytic hydrogenation of carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Wang, Shengping; Ma, Xinbin; Gong, Jinlong

2011-07-01

Owing to the increasing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO(2)), human life and the ecological environment have been affected by global warming and climate changes. To mitigate the concentration of CO(2) in the atmosphere various strategies have been implemented such as separation, storage, and utilization of CO(2). Although it has been explored for many years, hydrogenation reaction, an important representative among chemical conversions of CO(2), offers challenging opportunities for sustainable development in energy and the environment. Indeed, the hydrogenation of CO(2) not only reduces the increasing CO(2) buildup but also produces fuels and chemicals. In this critical review we discuss recent developments in this area, with emphases on catalytic reactivity, reactor innovation, and reaction mechanism. We also provide an overview regarding the challenges and opportunities for future research in the field (319 references).

Data-Constrained Projections of Methane Fluxes in a Northern Minnesota Peatland in Response to Elevated CO 2 and Warming

DOE PAGES

Ma, Shuang; Jiang, Jiang; Huang, Yuanyuan; ...

2017-10-20

Large uncertainties exist in predicting responses of wetland methane (CH 4) fluxes to future climate change. However, sources of the uncertainty have not been clearly identified despite the fact that methane production and emission processes have been extensively explored. In this study, we took advantage of manual CH 4 flux measurements under ambient environment from 2011 to 2014 at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experimental site and developed a data-informed process-based methane module. The module was incorporated into the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model before its parameters were constrained with multiple years of methane flux data formore » forecasting CH 4 emission under five warming and two elevated CO 2 treatments at SPRUCE. We found that 9°C warming treatments significantly increased methane emission by approximately 400%, and elevated CO 2 treatments stimulated methane emission by 10.4%–23.6% in comparison with ambient conditions. The relative contribution of plant-mediated transport to methane emission decreased from 96% at the control to 92% at the 9°C warming, largely to compensate for an increase in ebullition. The uncertainty in plant-mediated transportation and ebullition increased with warming and contributed to the overall changes of emissions uncertainties. At the same time, our modeling results indicated a significant increase in the emitted CH 4:CO 2 ratio. This result, together with the larger warming potential of CH 4, will lead to a strong positive feedback from terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming. In conclusion, the model-data fusion approach used in this study enabled parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for forecasting methane fluxes.« less

Data-Constrained Projections of Methane Fluxes in a Northern Minnesota Peatland in Response to Elevated CO2 and Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Shuang; Jiang, Jiang; Huang, Yuanyuan; Shi, Zheng; Wilson, Rachel M.; Ricciuto, Daniel; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Hanson, Paul J.; Luo, Yiqi

2017-11-01

Large uncertainties exist in predicting responses of wetland methane (CH4) fluxes to future climate change. However, sources of the uncertainty have not been clearly identified despite the fact that methane production and emission processes have been extensively explored. In this study, we took advantage of manual CH4 flux measurements under ambient environment from 2011 to 2014 at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experimental site and developed a data-informed process-based methane module. The module was incorporated into the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model before its parameters were constrained with multiple years of methane flux data for forecasting CH4 emission under five warming and two elevated CO2 treatments at SPRUCE. We found that 9°C warming treatments significantly increased methane emission by approximately 400%, and elevated CO2 treatments stimulated methane emission by 10.4%-23.6% in comparison with ambient conditions. The relative contribution of plant-mediated transport to methane emission decreased from 96% at the control to 92% at the 9°C warming, largely to compensate for an increase in ebullition. The uncertainty in plant-mediated transportation and ebullition increased with warming and contributed to the overall changes of emissions uncertainties. At the same time, our modeling results indicated a significant increase in the emitted CH4:CO2 ratio. This result, together with the larger warming potential of CH4, will lead to a strong positive feedback from terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming. The model-data fusion approach used in this study enabled parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for forecasting methane fluxes.

Data-Constrained Projections of Methane Fluxes in a Northern Minnesota Peatland in Response to Elevated CO 2 and Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Shuang; Jiang, Jiang; Huang, Yuanyuan

Large uncertainties exist in predicting responses of wetland methane (CH 4) fluxes to future climate change. However, sources of the uncertainty have not been clearly identified despite the fact that methane production and emission processes have been extensively explored. In this study, we took advantage of manual CH 4 flux measurements under ambient environment from 2011 to 2014 at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experimental site and developed a data-informed process-based methane module. The module was incorporated into the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model before its parameters were constrained with multiple years of methane flux data formore » forecasting CH 4 emission under five warming and two elevated CO 2 treatments at SPRUCE. We found that 9°C warming treatments significantly increased methane emission by approximately 400%, and elevated CO 2 treatments stimulated methane emission by 10.4%–23.6% in comparison with ambient conditions. The relative contribution of plant-mediated transport to methane emission decreased from 96% at the control to 92% at the 9°C warming, largely to compensate for an increase in ebullition. The uncertainty in plant-mediated transportation and ebullition increased with warming and contributed to the overall changes of emissions uncertainties. At the same time, our modeling results indicated a significant increase in the emitted CH 4:CO 2 ratio. This result, together with the larger warming potential of CH 4, will lead to a strong positive feedback from terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming. In conclusion, the model-data fusion approach used in this study enabled parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for forecasting methane fluxes.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the modelmore » calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants, targets were less well-defined, but while all three scenarios were able to make significant reductions in ROG, NOx and PM2.5 both statewide and in the two regional air basins, they may nonetheless fall short of what will be required by future federal standards. Specifically, in Scenario 1, regional NOx emissions are approximately three times the estimated targets for both 2023 and 2032, and in Scenarios 2 and 3, NOx emissions are approximately twice the estimated targets. Further work is required in this area, including detailed regional air quality modeling, in order to determine likely pathways for attaining these stringent targets.« less

How much do electric drive vehicles matter to future U.S. emissions?

PubMed

Babaee, Samaneh; Nagpure, Ajay S; DeCarolis, Joseph F

2014-01-01

Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles--known collectively as electric drive vehicles (EDVs)--may represent a clean and affordable option to meet growing U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand. The goal of this study is 2-fold: identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high LDV market penetration in the U.S. and quantify the associated change in CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions through midcentury. We employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES), a bottom-up energy system model, along with a U.S. data set developed for this analysis. To characterize EDV deployment through 2050, varying assumptions related to crude oil and natural gas prices, a CO2 policy, a federal renewable portfolio standard, and vehicle battery cost were combined to form 108 different scenarios. Across these scenarios, oil prices and battery cost have the biggest effect on EDV deployment. The model results do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions as EDV deployment increases. In addition to the trade-off between lower tailpipe and higher electric sector emissions associated with plug-in vehicles, the scenarios produce system-wide emissions effects that often mask the effect of EDV deployment.

Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

PubMed

Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

2018-06-01

Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Outsourcing CO2 Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K. G.

2009-12-01

CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the primary cause of global warming. Much attention has been focused on the CO2 directly emitted by each country, but relatively little attention has been paid to the amount of emissions associated with consumption of goods and services in each country. This consumption-based emissions inventory differs from the production-based inventory because of imports and exports of goods and services that, either directly or indirectly, involved CO2 emissions. Using the latest available data and reasonable assumptions regarding trans-shipment of embodied carbon through third-party countries, we developed a global consumption-based CO2 emissions inventory and have calculated associated consumption-based energy and carbon intensities. We find that, in 2004, 24% of CO2 emissions are effectively outsourced to other countries, with much of the developed world outsourcing CO2 emissions to emerging markets, principally China. Some wealthy countries, including Switzerland and Sweden, outsource over half of their consumption-based emissions, with many northern Europeans outsourcing more than three tons of emissions per person per year. The United States is both a big importer and exporter of emissions embodied in trade, outsourcing >2.6 tons of CO2 per person and at the same time as >2.0 tons of CO2 per person are outsourced to the United States. These large flows indicate that CO2 emissions embodied in trade must be taken into consideration when considering responsibility for increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Assessing fossil fuel CO2 emissions in California using atmospheric observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graven, H.; Fischer, M. L.; Lueker, T.; Jeong, S.; Guilderson, T. P.; Keeling, R. F.; Bambha, R.; Brophy, K.; Callahan, W.; Cui, X.; Frankenberg, C.; Gurney, K. R.; LaFranchi, B. W.; Lehman, S. J.; Michelsen, H.; Miller, J. B.; Newman, S.; Paplawsky, W.; Parazoo, N. C.; Sloop, C.; Walker, S. J.

2018-06-01

Analysis systems incorporating atmospheric observations could provide a powerful tool for validating fossil fuel CO2 (ffCO2) emissions reported for individual regions, provided that fossil fuel sources can be separated from other CO2 sources or sinks and atmospheric transport can be accurately accounted for. We quantified ffCO2 by measuring radiocarbon (14C) in CO2, an accurate fossil-carbon tracer, at nine observation sites in California for three months in 2014–15. There is strong agreement between the measurements and ffCO2 simulated using a high-resolution atmospheric model and a spatiotemporally-resolved fossil fuel flux estimate. Inverse estimates of total in-state ffCO2 emissions are consistent with the California Air Resources Board’s reported ffCO2 emissions, providing tentative validation of California’s reported ffCO2 emissions in 2014–15. Continuing this prototype analysis system could provide critical independent evaluation of reported ffCO2 emissions and emissions reductions in California, and the system could be expanded to other, more data-poor regions.

Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, Katharine L.; Caldeira, Ken

2014-12-01

It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6-30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations.

Drought stress and tree size determine stem CO2 efflux in a tropical forest.

PubMed

Rowland, Lucy; da Costa, Antonio C L; Oliveira, Alex A R; Oliveira, Rafael S; Bittencourt, Paulo L; Costa, Patricia B; Giles, Andre L; Sosa, Azul I; Coughlin, Ingrid; Godlee, John L; Vasconcelos, Steel S; Junior, João A S; Ferreira, Leandro V; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Meir, Patrick

2018-06-01

CO 2 efflux from stems (CO 2_stem ) accounts for a substantial fraction of tropical forest gross primary productivity, but the climate sensitivity of this flux remains poorly understood. We present a study of tropical forest CO 2_stem from 215 trees across wet and dry seasons, at the world's longest running tropical forest drought experiment site. We show a 27% increase in wet season CO 2_stem in the droughted forest relative to a control forest. This was driven by increasing CO 2_stem in trees 10-40 cm diameter. Furthermore, we show that drought increases the proportion of maintenance to growth respiration in trees > 20 cm diameter, including large increases in maintenance respiration in the largest droughted trees, > 40 cm diameter. However, we found no clear taxonomic influence on CO 2_stem and were unable to accurately predict how drought sensitivity altered ecosystem scale CO 2_stem , due to substantial uncertainty introduced by contrasting methods previously employed to scale CO 2_stem fluxes. Our findings indicate that under future scenarios of elevated drought, increases in CO 2_stem may augment carbon losses, weakening or potentially reversing the tropical forest carbon sink. However, due to substantial uncertainties in scaling CO 2_stem fluxes, stand-scale future estimates of changes in stem CO 2 emissions remain highly uncertain. © 2018 The Authors New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

40 CFR 98.83 - Calculating GHG emissions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... (General Stationary Fuel Combustion Sources) the combustion CO2 emissions from the kiln according to the... calculate and report the annual process CO2 emissions from each kiln using the procedure in paragraphs (a... combustion CO2 emissions by operating and maintaining a CEMS to measure CO2 emissions according to the Tier 4...

40 CFR 98.83 - Calculating GHG emissions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... (General Stationary Fuel Combustion Sources) the combustion CO2 emissions from the kiln according to the... calculate and report the annual process CO2 emissions from each kiln using the procedure in paragraphs (a... combustion CO2 emissions by operating and maintaining a CEMS to measure CO2 emissions according to the Tier 4...

40 CFR 98.83 - Calculating GHG emissions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... (General Stationary Fuel Combustion Sources) the combustion CO2 emissions from the kiln according to the... calculate and report the annual process CO2 emissions from each kiln using the procedure in paragraphs (a... combustion CO2 emissions by operating and maintaining a CEMS to measure CO2 emissions according to the Tier 4...

Nitrogen deposition and greenhouse gas emissions from grasslands: uncertainties and future directions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increases in atmospheric nitrogen deposition (Ndep) can strongly affect the greenhouse gas (GHG; CO2, CH4 and N2O) sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems. Grasslands play an important role in determining the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere. Robust predictions of the net GHG sink strength of...

Measuring the Epoch of Reionization using [CII] Intensity Mapping with TIME-Pilot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crites, Abigail; Bock, James; Bradford, Matt; Bumble, Bruce; Chang, Tzu-Ching; Cheng, Yun-Ting; Cooray, Asantha R.; Hailey-Dunsheath, Steve; Hunacek, Jonathon; Li, Chao-Te; O'Brient, Roger; Shirokoff, Erik; Staniszewski, Zachary; Shiu, Corwin; Uzgil, Bade; Zemcov, Michael B.; Sun, Guochao

2017-01-01

TIME-Pilot (the Tomographic Ionized carbon Intensity Mapping Experiment) is a new instrument designed to probe the epoch of reionization (EoR) by measuring the 158 um ionized carbon emission line [CII] from redshift 5 - 9. TIME-Pilot will also probe the molecular gas content of the universe during the epoch spanning the peak of star formation (z ~ 1 -3) by making an intensity mapping measurement of the CO transitions in the TIME-Pilot band (CO(3-2), CO(4-3), CO(5-4), and CO(6-5)). I will describe the instrument we are building which is an R of ~100 spectrometer sensitive to the 200-300 GHz radiation. The camera is designed to measure the line emission from galaxies using an intensity mapping technique. This instrument will allow us to detect the [CII] clustering fluctuations from faint galaxies during EoR and compare these measurements to predicted [CII] amplitudes from current models. The CO measurements will allow us to constrain models for galaxies at lower redshift. The [CII] intensity mapping measurements that will be made with TIME-Pilot and detailed measurements made with future more sensitive mm-wavelength spectrometers are complimentary to 21-cm measurements of the EoR and complimentary to direct detections of high redshift galaxies with HST, ALMA, and, in the future, JWST.

EERC Center for Biomass Utilization 2008-2010. Phases I-III

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zygarlicke, Christopher J.; Hurley, John P.; Auich, Ted R.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects nonhydro renewable electric energy increases of 140% and liquid transportation biofuels growing by 32,200 barrels a day between 2012 and 2040 (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2014). This is the EIA base case scenario, and this outlook could be a low estimate depending on the many assumptions involved in making such projections, not the least of which are climate change and the resultant legislation. The climate change postulate is based on increasing levels of CO 2 being introduced into the atmosphere through anthropogenic activity such as fossil fuel combustion formore » energy use. Renewable energy, and biomass conversion to energy in particular, is a net-zero CO 2 emission generator. When biomass is converted to energy, it emits CO 2; however, this CO 2 is balanced in a cycle where the production of biomass removes CO 2 from the atmosphere for growth and then releases it back into the atmosphere to be taken up by new growth of biomass feedstocks for energy. In comparison, fossil fuels are examples of CO 2 that has been removed from the atmosphere and sequestered and which, when converted to energy, is a new addition to the atmospheric levels of CO 2, which has been linked to climate change. While recent advances in technology used for extracting oil and gas from tight formations have increased the availability of fossil fuels for energy, the end game needs to focus on providing sustainable energy sources for the United States as well as the world. If, in the future, legislation is enacted that places a fee on atmospheric CO 2 emissions, this may make the use of biomass for energy more economically attractive, increasing its use. Research that focuses on the future sustainability of energy production is part of the answer to bringing about game-changing technologies that can provide energy in a timely, reliable, sustainable fashion.« less

The role of artificial atmospheric CO2 removal in stabilizing Earth's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Tokarska, K.

2014-12-01

The current CO2 emission trend entails a risk that the 2°C target will be missed, potentially causing "dangerous" changes in Earth's climate system. This research explores the role of artificial atmospheric CO2 removal (also referred to as "negative emissions") in stabilizing Earth's climate after overshoot. We designed a range of plausible CO2 emission scenarios, which follow a gradual transition from a fossil fuel driven economy to a zero-emission energy system, followed by a period of negative emissions. The scenarios differ in peak emissions rate and, accordingly, the amount of negative emissions, to reach the same cumulative emissions compatible with the 2°C temperature stabilization target. The climate system components' responses are computed using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity. Results suggest that negative emissions are effective in reversing the global mean temperature and stabilizing it at a desired level (2°C above pre-industrial) after overshoot. Also, changes in the meridional overturning circulation and sea ice are reversible with the artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. However, sea level continues to rise and is not reversible for several centuries, even under assumption of large amounts of negative emissions. For sea level to decline, atmospheric CO2 needs to be reduced to pre-industrial levels in our simulations. During the negative emission phase, outgassing of CO2 from terrestrial and marine carbon sinks offsets the artificial removal of atmospheric CO2, thereby reducing its effectiveness. On land, the largest CO2 outgassing occurs in the Tropics and is partially compensated by CO2 uptake at northern high latitudes. In the ocean, outgassing occurs mostly in the Southern Ocean, North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. The strongest outgassing occurs for pathways entailing greatest amounts of negative emissions, such that the efficiency of CO2 removal - here defined as the change in atmospheric CO2 per unit negative emission - decreases with increasing amounts of negative emissions.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Effects of Grid-Scale Electricity Storage in a Decarbonizing Power System

DOE PAGES

Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2018-01-03

While grid-scale electricity storage (hereafter 'storage') could be crucial for deeply decarbonizing the electric power system, it would increase carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions in current systems across the United States. To better understand how storage transitions from increasing to decreasing system CO 2 emissions, we quantify the effect of storage on operational CO 2 emissions as a power system decarbonizes under a moderate and strong CO 2 emission reduction target through 2045. Under each target, we compare the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions when storage participates in only energy, only reserve, and energy and reserve markets. Wemore » conduct our study in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system and use a capacity expansion model to forecast generator fleet changes and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to quantify system CO 2 emissions with and without storage. We find that storage would increase CO 2 emissions in the current ERCOT system, but would decrease CO 2 emissions in 2025 through 2045 under both decarbonization targets. Storage reduces CO 2 emissions primarily by enabling gas-fired generation to displace coal-fired generation, but also by reducing wind and solar curtailment. We further find that the market in which storage participates drives large differences in the magnitude, but not the direction, of the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions.« less

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Effects of Grid-Scale Electricity Storage in a Decarbonizing Power System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

While grid-scale electricity storage (hereafter 'storage') could be crucial for deeply decarbonizing the electric power system, it would increase carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions in current systems across the United States. To better understand how storage transitions from increasing to decreasing system CO 2 emissions, we quantify the effect of storage on operational CO 2 emissions as a power system decarbonizes under a moderate and strong CO 2 emission reduction target through 2045. Under each target, we compare the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions when storage participates in only energy, only reserve, and energy and reserve markets. Wemore » conduct our study in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system and use a capacity expansion model to forecast generator fleet changes and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to quantify system CO 2 emissions with and without storage. We find that storage would increase CO 2 emissions in the current ERCOT system, but would decrease CO 2 emissions in 2025 through 2045 under both decarbonization targets. Storage reduces CO 2 emissions primarily by enabling gas-fired generation to displace coal-fired generation, but also by reducing wind and solar curtailment. We further find that the market in which storage participates drives large differences in the magnitude, but not the direction, of the effect of storage on CO 2 emissions.« less

Carbon dioxide emissions effects of grid-scale electricity storage in a decarbonizing power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

2018-01-01

While grid-scale electricity storage (hereafter ‘storage’) could be crucial for deeply decarbonizing the electric power system, it would increase carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in current systems across the United States. To better understand how storage transitions from increasing to decreasing system CO2 emissions, we quantify the effect of storage on operational CO2 emissions as a power system decarbonizes under a moderate and strong CO2 emission reduction target through 2045. Under each target, we compare the effect of storage on CO2 emissions when storage participates in only energy, only reserve, and energy and reserve markets. We conduct our study in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system and use a capacity expansion model to forecast generator fleet changes and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to quantify system CO2 emissions with and without storage. We find that storage would increase CO2 emissions in the current ERCOT system, but would decrease CO2 emissions in 2025 through 2045 under both decarbonization targets. Storage reduces CO2 emissions primarily by enabling gas-fired generation to displace coal-fired generation, but also by reducing wind and solar curtailment. We further find that the market in which storage participates drives large differences in the magnitude, but not the direction, of the effect of storage on CO2 emissions.

40 CFR 75.13 - Specific provisions for monitoring CO2 emissions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Specific provisions for monitoring CO2... monitoring CO2 emissions. (a) CO 2 continuous emission monitoring system. If the owner or operator chooses to... operating requirements in § 75.10 for a CO2 continuous emission monitoring system and flow monitoring system...

40 CFR 75.13 - Specific provisions for monitoring CO2 emissions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Specific provisions for monitoring CO2... monitoring CO2 emissions. (a) CO 2 continuous emission monitoring system. If the owner or operator chooses to... operating requirements in § 75.10 for a CO2 continuous emission monitoring system and flow monitoring system...

40 CFR 75.13 - Specific provisions for monitoring CO2 emissions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Specific provisions for monitoring CO2... monitoring CO2 emissions. (a) CO 2 continuous emission monitoring system. If the owner or operator chooses to... operating requirements in § 75.10 for a CO2 continuous emission monitoring system and flow monitoring system...

Global Change Could Amplify Fire Effects on Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions

PubMed Central

Niboyet, Audrey; Brown, Jamie R.; Dijkstra, Paul; Blankinship, Joseph C.; Leadley, Paul W.; Le Roux, Xavier; Barthes, Laure; Barnard, Romain L.; Field, Christopher B.; Hungate, Bruce A.

2011-01-01

Background Little is known about the combined impacts of global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning, even though such combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that can in turn feed back to climate change, such as soil emissions of greenhouse gases. Methodology/Principal Findings We took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of a long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and increases in CO2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen supply on soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in a grassland ecosystem. We examined the responses of soil N2O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N2O production – nitrification and denitrification – and of their main drivers. We show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N2O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO2 and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N2O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO2 and nitrogen. We also provide evidence that this response was caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability in the burned and fertilized plots. Conclusions/Significance Our results indicate that the combined effects of fire and global environmental changes can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change if we wish to be able to model future soil greenhouse gas emissions with greater confidence. PMID:21687708

Methane emission from global livestock sector during 1890-2014: Magnitude, trends and spatiotemporal patterns.

PubMed

Dangal, Shree R S; Tian, Hanqin; Zhang, Bowen; Pan, Shufen; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia

2017-10-01

Human demand for livestock products has increased rapidly during the past few decades largely due to dietary transition and population growth, with significant impact on climate and the environment. The contribution of ruminant livestock to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been investigated extensively at various scales from regional to global, but the long-term trend, regional variation and drivers of methane (CH 4 ) emission remain unclear. In this study, we use Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II guidelines to quantify the evolution of CH 4 emissions from ruminant livestock during 1890-2014. We estimate that total CH 4 emissions in 2014 was 97.1 million tonnes (MT) CH 4 or 2.72 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO 2 -eq (1 MT = 10 12 g, 1 Gt = 10 15 g) from ruminant livestock, which accounted for 47%-54% of all non-CO 2 GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Our estimate shows that CH 4 emissions from the ruminant livestock had increased by 332% (73.6 MT CH 4 or 2.06 Gt CO 2 -eq) since the 1890s. Our results further indicate that livestock sector in drylands had 36% higher emission intensity (CH 4 emissions/km 2 ) compared to that in nondrylands in 2014, due to the combined effect of higher rate of increase in livestock population and low feed quality. We also find that the contribution of developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America) to the total CH 4 emissions had increased from 51.7% in the 1890s to 72.5% in the 2010s. These changes were driven by increases in livestock numbers (LU units) by up to 121% in developing regions, but decreases in livestock numbers and emission intensity (emission/km 2 ) by up to 47% and 32%, respectively, in developed regions. Our results indicate that future increases in livestock production would likely contribute to higher CH 4 emissions, unless effective strategies to mitigate GHG emissions in livestock system are implemented. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Costs for integrating wind into the future ERCOT system with related costs for savings in CO2 emissions.

PubMed

Lu, Xi; McElroy, Michael B; Sluzas, Nora A

2011-04-01

Wind power can make an important contribution to the goal of reducing emissions of CO2. The major problem relates to the intrinsic variability of the source and the difficulty of reconciling the supply of electricity with demand particularly at high levels of wind penetration. This challenge is explored for the case of the ERCOT system in Texas. Demand for electricity in Texas is projected to increase by approximately 60% by 2030. Considering hourly load data reported for 2006, assuming that the pattern of demand in 2030 should be similar to 2006, and adopting as a business as usual (BAU) reference an assumption that the anticipated additional electricity should be supplied by a combination of coal and gas with prices, discounted to 2007 dollars of $2 and $6 per MMBTU respectively, we conclude that the bus-bar price for electricity would increase by about 1.1 ¢/kWh at a wind penetration level of 30%, by about 3.4 ¢/kWh at a penetration level of 80%. Corresponding costs for reductions in CO2 range from $20/ton to $60/ton. A number of possibilities are discussed that could contribute to a reduction in these costs including the impact of an expanded future fleet of electrically driven vehicles.

Global carbon budget 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Quéré, C.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Andrew, R. M.; Boden, T.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Houghton, R. A.; Marland, G.; Moriarty, R.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Arvanitis, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Doney, S. C.; Harper, A.; Harris, I.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Jones, S. D.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Körtzinger, A.; Koven, C.; Lefèvre, N.; Omar, A.; Ono, T.; Park, G.-H.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schwinger, J.; Segschneider, J.; Stocker, B. D.; Tilbrook, B.; van Heuven, S.; Viovy, N.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.; Yue, C.

2013-11-01

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and assuming and ELUC of 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 (based on 2001-2010 average), SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003-2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm on average over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1-3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 550 ± 60 GtC for 1870-2013, 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (160 ± 55 GtC). This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future. All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_v1.1).

Analyses on Cost Reduction and CO2 Mitigation by Penetration of Fuel Cells to Residential Houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aki, Hirohisa; Yamamoto, Shigeo; Kondoh, Junji; Murata, Akinobu; Ishii, Itaru; Maeda, Tetsuhiko

This paper presents analyses on the penetration of polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFC) into a group of 10 residential houses and its effects of CO2 emission mitigation and consumers’ cost reduction in next 30 years. The price is considered to be reduced as the penetration progress which is expected to begin in near future. An experimental curve is assumed to express the decrease of the price. Installation of energy interchange systems which involve electricity, gas and hydrogen between a house which has a FC and contiguous houses is assumed to utilize both electricity and heat more efficiently, and to avoid start-stop operation of fuel processor (reformer) as much as possible. A multi-objective model which considers CO2 mitigation and consumers’ cost reduction is constructed and provided a Pareto optimum solution. A solution which simultaneously realizes both CO2 mitigation and consumers’ cost reduction appeared in the Pareto optimum solution. Strategies to reduce CO2 emission and consumers’ cost are suggested from the results of the analyses. The analyses also revealed that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of the penetration.

Conceptual Design of a Supersonic Business Jet Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruckner, Robert J.

2002-01-01

NASA's Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology Program (UEETP) is developing a suite of technology to enhance the performance of future aircraft propulsion systems. Areas of focus for this suite of technology include: Highly Loaded Turbomachinery, Emissions Reduction, Materials and Structures, Controls, and Propulsion-Airframe Integration. The two major goals of the UEETP are emissions reduction of both landing and take-off nitrogen oxides (LTO-NO(x)) and mission carbon dioxide (CO2) through fuel burn reductions. The specific goals include a 70 percent reduction in the current LTO-NO(x) rule and an 8 percent reduction in mission CO2 emissions. In order to gain insight into the potential applications and benefits of these technologies on future aircraft, a set of representative flight vehicles was selected for systems level conceptual studies. The Supersonic Business Jet (SBJ) is one of these vehicles. The particular SBJ considered in this study has a capacity of 6 passengers, cruise Mach Number of 2.0, and a range of 4,000 nautical miles. Without the current existence of an SBJ the study of this vehicle requires a two-phased approach. Initially, a hypothetical baseline SBJ is designed which utilizes only current state of the art technology. Finally, an advanced SBJ propulsion system is designed and optimized which incorporates the advanced technologies under development within the UEETP. System benefits are then evaluated and compared to the program and design requirements. Although the program goals are only concerned with LTO-NO(x) and CO2 emissions, it is acknowledged that additional concerns for an SBJ include take-off noise, overland supersonic flight, and cruise NO(x) emissions at high altitudes. Propulsion system trade-offs in the conceptual design phase acknowledge these issues as well as the program goals. With the inclusion of UEETP technologies a propulsion system is designed which performs at 81% below the LTO-NO(x) rule, and reduces fuel burn by 23 percent compared to the current technology.

Observations of the north polar water ice annulus on Mars using THEMIS and TES

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagstaff, K.L.; Titus, T.N.; Ivanov, A.B.; Castano, R.; Bandfield, J.L.

2008-01-01

The Martian seasonal CO2 ice caps advance and retreat each year. In the spring, as the CO2 cap gradually retreats, it leaves behind an extensive defrosting zone from the solid CO2 cap to the location where all CO2 frost has sublimated. We have been studying this phenomenon in the north polar region using data from the THermal EMission Imaging System (THEMIS), a visible and infra-red (IR) camera on the Mars Odyssey spacecraft, and the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) on Mars Global Surveyor. Recently, we discovered that some THEMIS images of the CO2 defrosting zone contain evidence for a distinct defrosting phenomenon: some areas just south of the CO2 cap edge are too bright in visible wavelengths to be defrosted terrain, but too warm in the IR to be CO2 ice. We hypothesize that we are seeing evidence for a seasonal annulus of water ice (frost) that recedes with the seasonal CO2 cap, as predicted by previous workers. In this paper, we describe our observations with THEMIS and compare them to simultaneous observations by TES and OMEGA. All three instruments find that this phenomenon is distinct from the CO2 cap and most likely composed of water ice. We also find strong evidence that the annulus widens as it recedes. Finally, we show that this annulus can be detected in the raw THEMIS data as it is collected, enabling future long-term onboard monitoring. ?? 2007.

Long-term impacts of manure amendments on carbon and greenhouse gas dynamics of rangelands.

PubMed

Owen, Justine J; Parton, William J; Silver, Whendee L

2015-12-01

Livestock manure is applied to rangelands as an organic fertilizer to stimulate forage production, but the long-term impacts of this practice on soil carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) dynamics are poorly known. We collected soil samples from manured and nonmanured fields on commercial dairies and found that manure amendments increased soil C stocks by 19.0 ± 7.3 Mg C ha(-1) and N stocks by 1.94 ± 0.63 Mg N ha(-1) compared to nonmanured fields (0-20 cm depth). Long-term historical (1700-present) and future (present-2100) impacts of management on soil C and N dynamics, net primary productivity (NPP), and GHG emissions were modeled with DayCent. Modeled total soil C and N stocks increased with the onset of dairying. Nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions also increased by ~2 kg N2 O-N ha(-1)  yr(-1) . These emissions were proportional to total N additions and offset 75-100% of soil C sequestration. All fields were small net methane (CH4 ) sinks, averaging -4.7 ± 1.2 kg CH4 -C ha(-1)  yr(-1) . Overall, manured fields were net GHG sinks between 1954 and 2011 (-0.74 ± 0.73 Mg CO2 e ha(-1)  yr(-1) , CO2 e are carbon dioxide equivalents), whereas nonmanured fields varied around zero. Future soil C pools stabilized 40-60 years faster in manured fields than nonmanured fields, at which point manured fields were significantly larger sources than nonmanured fields (1.45 ± 0.52 Mg CO2 e ha(-1)  yr(-1) and 0.51 ± 0.60 Mg CO2 e ha(-1)  yr(-1) , respectively). Modeling also revealed a large background loss of soil C from the passive soil pool associated with the shift from perennial to annual grasses, equivalent to 29.4 ± 1.47 Tg CO2 e in California between 1820 and 2011. Manure applications increased NPP and soil C storage, but plant community changes and GHG emissions decreased, and eventually eliminated, the net climate benefit of this practice. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Room-temperature ionic liquids and composite materials: platform technologies for CO(2) capture.

PubMed

Bara, Jason E; Camper, Dean E; Gin, Douglas L; Noble, Richard D

2010-01-19

Clean energy production has become one of the most prominent global issues of the early 21st century, prompting social, economic, and scientific debates regarding energy usage, energy sources, and sustainable energy strategies. The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, specifically carbon dioxide (CO(2)), figures prominently in the discussions on the future of global energy policy. Billions of tons of annual CO(2) emissions are the direct result of fossil fuel combustion to generate electricity. Producing clean energy from abundant sources such as coal will require a massive infrastructure and highly efficient capture technologies to curb CO(2) emissions. Current technologies for CO(2) removal from other gases, such as those used in natural gas sweetening, are also capable of capturing CO(2) from power plant emissions. Aqueous amine processes are found in the vast majority of natural gas sweetening operations in the United States. However, conventional aqueous amine processes are highly energy intensive; their implementation for postcombustion CO(2) capture from power plant emissions would drastically cut plant output and efficiency. Membranes, another technology used in natural gas sweetening, have been proposed as an alternative mechanism for CO(2) capture from flue gas. Although membranes offer a potentially less energy-intensive approach, their development and industrial implementation lags far behind that of amine processes. Thus, to minimize the impact of postcombustion CO(2) capture on the economics of energy production, advances are needed in both of these areas. In this Account, we review our recent research devoted to absorptive processes and membranes. Specifically, we have explored the use of room-temperature ionic liquids (RTILs) in absorptive and membrane technologies for CO(2) capture. RTILs present a highly versatile and tunable platform for the development of new processes and materials aimed at the capture of CO(2) from power plant flue gas and in natural gas sweetening. The desirable properties of RTIL solvents, such as negligible vapor pressures, thermal stability, and a large liquid range, make them interesting candidates as new materials in well-known CO(2) capture processes. Here, we focus on the use of RTILs (1) as absorbents, including in combination with amines, and (2) in the design of polymer membranes. RTIL amine solvents have many potential advantages over aqueous amines, and the versatile chemistry of imidazolium-based RTILs also allows for the generation of new types of CO(2)-selective polymer membranes. RTIL and RTIL-based composites can compete with, or improve upon, current technologies. Moreover, owing to our experience in this area, we are developing new imidazolium-based polymer architectures and thermotropic and lyotropic liquid crystals as highly tailorable materials based on and capable of interacting with RTILs.

The right place for the right job in the photovoltaic life cycle.

PubMed

Kawajiri, Kotaro; Genchi, Yutaka

2012-07-03

The potential for photovoltaic power generation (PV) to reduce primary energy consumption (PEC) and CO(2) emissions depends on the physical locations of each stage of its life cycle. When stages are optimally located, CO(2) emissions are reduced nearly ten times as much as when each stage is located in the country having the largest current market share. The usage stage contributes the most to reducing CO(2) emissions and PEC, and total CO(2) emissions actually increase when PV is installed in countries having small CO(2) emissions from electricity generation. Global maps of CO(2) reduction potential indicate that Botswana and Gobi in Mongolia are the optimal locations to install PV due to favorable conditions for PV power generation and high CO(2) emissions from current electricity generation. However, the small electricity demand in those countries limits the contribution to global CO(2) reduction. The type of PVs has a small but significant effect on life cycle PEC and CO(2) emissions.

Detecting deep crustal magma movement: Exploring linkages between increased gas emission, deep seismicity, and deformation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, C. A.; Poland, M. P.; Power, J. A.; Sutton, A. J.; Elias, T.; Grapenthin, R.; Thelen, W. A.

2013-12-01

Typically in the weeks to days before a volcanic eruption there are indisputable signals of unrest that can be identified in geophysical and geochemical data. Detection of signals of volcanic unrest months to years prior to an eruption, however, relies on our ability to recognize and link more subtle changes. Deep long-period earthquakes, typically 10-45 km beneath volcanoes, are thought to represent magma movement and may indicate near future unrest. Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) exsolves from most magmas at similar depths and increases in CO2 discharge may also provide a months-to-years precursor as it emits at the surface in advance of the magma from which it exsolved. Without the use of sensitive monitoring equipment and routine measurements, changes in CO2 can easily go undetected. Finally, inflation of the surface, through use of InSAR or GPS stations (especially at sites tens of km from the volcano) can also indicate accumulation of magma in the deep crust. Here we present three recent examples, from Redoubt, Kilauea, and Mammoth Mountain volcanoes, where increases in CO2 emission, deep long-period earthquakes, and surface deformation data indicate either the intrusion of magma into the deep crust in the months to years preceding volcanic eruptions or a change in ongoing volcanic unrest. At Redoubt volcano, Alaska, elevated CO2 emission (~ 1200 t/d, or roughly 20 times the background emission) was measured in October, 2008, over 5 months prior to the first magmatic eruption in March, 2009. In addition to CO2 release, deep long-period earthquakes were first recorded in December, 2008, and a deep deformation signal was detected starting in May 2008, albeit retrospectively. At Kilauea, Hawaii, increases in CO2 emissions from the summit (up to nearly 25 kt/d, over three times the background emission) were measured mid-2004, roughly coincident with a change in deformation behavior from deflation to inflation. Nearly 3 years later, a change in eruptive activity occurred as a result of a burgeoning supply of magma to the volcano, which overwhelmed the ability of the ongoing east rift zone eruption to accommodate the increased flux of magma into the edifice. At Mammoth Mountain, California, diffuse CO2 degassing doubled between 2007 and 2012 following three swarms of deep earthquakes that began in 2006. In contrast to Redoubt and Kilauea, the CO2 emission rate at Mammoth is on the order of hundreds of t/d as opposed to thousands. This reasonably indicates a smaller volume of magma at depth, and changes do not suggest volcanic activity is imminent. In these examples there was no visual indication of increased CO2 emission, and geophysical signals of unrest were often subtle. Routine measurement of all volcanic gases, most importantly CO2 , coupled with a geophysical monitoring, therefore, has better potential to recognize changes in deep (10s of km) magmatic processes. Such indicators are key to better eruption forecasts, especially on the months-to years timescales that often elude volcanologists.

Building Electricity Consumption as an Indicator of Indirect Carbon Dioxide Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma’mun, S.; Sukirman; Alel, A. E.; Hasanah, M.

2018-05-01

The global CO2 emissions have continually increased from year to year and reached 32 Gt in 2010. The increased CO2 emissions may lead to a higher temperature and cause climate change on a global scale. Building energy-using equipment in Indonesia continuously increases annually leading to increasing indirect CO2 emissions from the buildings. The objective of this study is to measure the indirect CO2 emissions from the Faculty of Industrial Technology (FIT), Universitas Islam Indonesia (UII) Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The research data were taken from the electricity consumption by reading the electric meter at specified time intervals for 7 weeks from 26 September to 13 November 2016. The amount of electricity consumption indirectly indicates the amount of CO2 emission in the FIT where the FIT has consumed the electricity of 18.6 kWh/day corresponding to the average indirect CO2 emission of 15.9 kg CO2-eq/day. The results obtained would, therefore, give some recommendations to the FIT to take some policy actions related to the indirect CO2 emission by improving energy management system to minimize the indirect CO2 emission in the FIT.

Emissions of NO, NO2 and PM from inland shipping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurtenbach, Ralf; Vaupel, Kai; Kleffmann, Jörg; Klenk, Ulrich; Schmidt, Eberhard; Wiesen, Peter

2016-11-01

Particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen oxides NOx (NOx = NO2+ NO) are key species for urban air quality in Europe and are emitted by mobile sources. According to European recommendations, a significant fraction of road freight should be shifted to waterborne transport in the future. In order to better consider this emission change pattern in future emission inventories, in the present study inland water transport emissions of NOx, CO2 and PM were investigated under real world conditions on the river Rhine, Germany, in 2013. An average NO2 / NOx emission ratio of 0.08 ± 0.02 was obtained, which is indicative of ship diesel engines without exhaust gas aftertreatment systems. For all measured motor ship types and operation conditions, overall weighted average emission indices (EIs), as emitted mass of pollutant per kg burnt fuel of EINOx = 54 ± 4 g kg-1 and a lower limit EIPM1 ≥ 2.0 ± 0.3 g kg-1, were obtained. EIs for NOx and PM1 were found to be in the range of 20-161 and ≥ 0.2-8.1 g kg-1 respectively. A comparison with threshold values of national German guidelines shows that the NOx emissions of all investigated motor ship types are above the threshold values, while the obtained lower limit PM1 emissions are just under. To reduce NOx emissions to acceptable values, implementation of exhaust gas aftertreatment systems is recommended.

Tecnical Note: Analysis of non-regulated vehicular emissions by extractive FTIR spectrometry: tests on a hybrid car in Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, F.; Grutter, M.; Jazcilevich, A.; González-Oropeza, R.

2006-11-01

A methodology to acquire valuable information on the chemical composition and evolution of vehicular emissions is presented. The analysis of the gases is performed by passing a constant flow of a sample gas from the tail-pipe into a 10 L multi-pass cell. The absorption spectra within the cell are obtained using an FTIR spectrometer at 0.5 cm-1 resolution along a 13.1 m optical path. Additionally, the total flow from the exhaust is continuously measured from a differential pressure sensor on a textit{Pitot} tube installed at the exit of the exhaust. This configuration aims to obtain a good speciation capability by coadding spectra during 30 s and reporting the emission (in g/km) of both criteria and non-regulated pollutants, such as CO2, CO, NO, SO2, NH3, HCHO and some NMHC, during predetermined driving cycles. The advantages and disadvantages of increasing the measurement frequency, as well as the effect of other parameters such as spectral resolution, cell volume and flow rate, are discussed. To test and evaluate the proposed technique, experiments were performed on a dynamometer running FTP-75 and typical driving cycles for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) on a Toyota Prius hybrid vehicle. This car is an example of recent marketed automotive technology dedicated to reduced emissions, increasing the need for sensitive detection techniques. This study shows the potential of the proposed technique to measure and report in real time the emissions of a large variety of pollutants, even from a super ultra-low emission vehicle (SULEV). The emissions of HC's, NOx, CO and CO2 obtained here were compared to experiments performed in other locations with the same model vehicle. The proposed technique provides a tool for future studies comparing in detail the emissions of vehicles using alternative fuels and emission control systems.

Simulating carbon capture by enhanced weathering with croplands: an overview of key processes highlighting areas of future model development

PubMed Central

Quegan, Shaun; Banwart, Steven A.

2017-01-01

Enhanced weathering (EW) aims to amplify a natural sink for CO2 by incorporating powdered silicate rock with high reactive surface area into agricultural soils. The goal is to achieve rapid dissolution of minerals and release of alkalinity with accompanying dissolution of CO2 into soils and drainage waters. EW could counteract phosphorus limitation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in tropical soils, and soil acidification, a common agricultural problem studied with numerical process models over several decades. Here, we review the processes leading to soil acidification in croplands and how the soil weathering CO2 sink is represented in models. Mathematical models capturing the dominant processes and human interventions governing cropland soil chemistry and GHG emissions neglect weathering, while most weathering models neglect agricultural processes. We discuss current approaches to modelling EW and highlight several classes of model having the potential to simulate EW in croplands. Finally, we argue for further integration of process knowledge in mathematical models to capture feedbacks affecting both longer-term CO2 consumption and crop growth and yields. PMID:28381633

Real-driving emissions of circulating Spanish car fleet in 2015 using RSD Technology.

PubMed

Pujadas, M; Domínguez-Sáez, A; De la Fuente, J

2017-01-15

In this paper we present the results corresponding to on-road traffic emissions measurements obtained during two field campaigns developed in the Madrid region (Spain) during 2014 and 2015 in the framework of the CORETRA project. The experimental strategy was based on the use of a RSD 4600 remote sensor in interurban roads. These measurements have produced a global database of >190,000 vehicles with their associated emission data (NO/CO 2 , HC/CO 2 and CO/CO 2 ), which can be considered representative of the current Spanish circulating fleet. The results of M1 vehicles were analysed according to their distribution by Euro Standard and engine model. One of the relevant findings is that, despite the progressive introduction of increasingly stringent standards, no NO emission reduction is observed for diesel vehicles with time, although this behavior shows significative differences among brands and engine models. We have also investigated the presence of "high emitter" (HE) vehicles in the Spanish M1 circulating fleet and most of the HE detected corresponded to diesel vehicles with very high NO/CO 2 values. With these results at hand, we strongly propose the future incorporation of the "high emitter vehicle" definition into the European environmental legislation, as well as the establishment of specific strategies in each country/region in order to identify these anomalous vehicles. Identification and repair of HE vehicles within the European circulating fleets, although are not easy tasks, should be considered very important for the improvement of air quality in the EU. The use of non-intrusive optical technologies (i.e. RSD) is an excellent option to provide instantaneous real emission data of each individual vehicle without disturbing traffic and for on-road fleet monitoring. In summary, it is a good strategy to obtain valuable information about the long term surveillance of real vehicle emission trends, specially after the introduction of new standard. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

First measurements of a carbon dioxide plume from an industrial source using a ground based mobile differential absorption lidar.

PubMed

Robinson, R A; Gardiner, T D; Innocenti, F; Finlayson, A; Woods, P T; Few, J F M

2014-08-01

The emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial sources is one of the main anthropogenic contributors to the greenhouse effect. Direct remote sensing of CO2 emissions using optical methods offers the potential for the identification and quantification of CO2 emissions. We report the development and demonstration of a ground based mobile differential absorption lidar (DIAL) able to measure the mass emission rate of CO2 in the plume from a power station. To our knowledge DIAL has not previously been successfully applied to the measurement of emission plumes of CO2 from industrial sources. A significant challenge in observing industrial CO2 emission plumes is the ability to discriminate and observe localised concentrations of CO2 above the locally observed background level. The objectives of the study were to modify our existing mobile infrared DIAL system to enable CO2 measurements and to demonstrate the system at a power plant to assess the feasibility of the technique for the identification and quantification of CO2 emissions. The results of this preliminary study showed very good agreement with the expected emissions calculated by the site. The detection limit obtained from the measurements, however, requires further improvement to provide quantification of smaller emitters of CO2, for example for the detection of fugitive emissions. This study has shown that in principle, remote optical sensing technology will have the potential to provide useful direct data on CO2 mass emission rates.

Constraining East Asian CO2 emissions with GOSAT retrievals: methods and policy implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, C.; Henze, D. K.; Deng, F.

2017-12-01

The world largest CO2 emissions are from East Asia. However, there are large uncertainties in CO2 emission inventories, mainly because of imperfections in bottom-up statistics and a lack of observations for validating emission fluxes, particularly over China. Here we tried to constrain East Asian CO2 emissions with GOSAT retrievals applying 4-Dvar GEOS-Chem and its adjoint model. We applied the inversion to only the cold season (November - February) in 2009 - 2010 since the summer monsoon and greater transboundary impacts in spring and fall greatly reduced the GOSAT retrievals. In the cold season, the a posteriori CO2 emissions over East Asia generally higher by 5 - 20%, particularly Northeastern China shows intensively higher in a posteriori emissions ( 20%), where the Chinese government is recently focusing on mitigating the air pollutants. In another hand, a posteriori emissions from Southern China are lower 10 - 25%. A posteriori emissions in Korea and Japan are mostly higher by 10 % except over Kyushu region. With our top-down estimates with 4-Dvar CO2 inversion, we will evaluate the current regional CO2 emissions inventories and potential uncertainties in the sectoral emissions. This study will help understand the quantitative information on anthropogenic CO2 emissions over East Asia and will give policy implications for the mitigation targets.

Quantifying the Contribution of Urban-Industrial Efficiency and Symbiosis to Deep Decarbonization: Impact of 637 Chinese Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswami, A.; Tong, K.; Fang, A.; Lal, R.; Nagpure, A.; Li, Y.; Yu, H.; Jiang, D.; Russell, A. G.; Shi, L.; Chertow, M.; Wang, Y.; Wang, S.

2016-12-01

Urban activities in China contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to local air pollution-related health risks. Co-location analysis can help inform the potential for energy- and material-exchanges across homes, businesses, infrastructure and industries co-located in cities. Such co-location dependent urban-industrial symbiosis strategies offer a new pathway toward urban energy efficiency and health that have not previously been quantified. Key examples includes the use of waste industrial heat in other co-located industries, and in residential-commercial district heating-cooling systems of cities. To quantify the impact of these strategies: (1) We develop a new data-set of 637 Chinese cities to assess the potential for efficiency and symbiosis across co-located homes, businesses, industries and the energy and construction sectors in the different cities. (2) A multi-scalar urban systems model quantifies trans-boundary CO2 impacts as well as local health benefits of these uniquely urban, co-location-dependent strategies. (3) CO2 impacts are aggregated across the 637 Chinese cities (home to 701 million people) to quantify national CO2 mitigation potential. (4) The local health benefits are modeled specific to each city and mapped geospatially to identify areas where co-benefits between GHG mitigation and health are maximized. Results: A first order conservative analysis of co-location dependent urban symbiosis indicates potential for reducing 6% of China's national total CO2 emissions in a relatively short time period, yielding a new pathway not previously considered in China's energy futures models. The magnitude of these reductions (6%) was similar in magnitude to sector specific industrial, power sector and buildings efficiency strategeies that together contributed 9% CO2 reduction aggregated across the nation. CO2 reductions mapped to the 637 cities ranged from <1% to 40%, depending upon co-location patterns, climate and other features of the cities. The modeled reductions in fossil-fuel use yield reductions in PM-2.5 emissions from <1% to 73%, depending on the city, and avoided annual mortality >40,000 premature deaths (avoided) across all cities. These results demonstrate the contribution urban symbiosis on decarbonization and health co-benefits.

COLDz: KARL G. JANSKY VERY LARGE ARRAY DISCOVERY OF A GAS-RICH GALAXY IN COSMOS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lentati, L.; Wagg, J.; Carilli, C. L.

2015-02-10

The broad spectral bandwidth at millimeter and centimeter wavelengths provided by the recent upgrades to the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) has made it possible to conduct unbiased searches for molecular CO line emission at redshifts, z > 1.31. We present the discovery of a gas-rich, star-forming galaxy at z = 2.48 through the detection of CO J = 1-0 line emission in the COLDz survey and through a sensitive, Ka-band (31-39 GHz) VLA survey of a 6.5 arcmin{sup 2} region of the COSMOS field. We argue that the broad line (FWHM ∼ 570 ± 80 km s{supmore » –1}) is most likely to be CO J = 1-0 at z = 2.48, as the integrated emission is spatially coincident with an infrared-detected galaxy with a photometric redshift estimate of z {sub phot} = 3.2 ± 0.4. The CO J = 1-0 line luminosity is L{sub CO}{sup ′}=(2.2±0.3)×10{sup 10} K km s{sup –1} pc{sup 2}, suggesting a cold molecular gas mass of M {sub gas} ∼ (2-8) × 10{sup 10} M {sub ☉} depending on the assumed value of the molecular gas mass to CO luminosity ratio α{sub CO}. The estimated infrared luminosity from the (rest-frame) far-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) is L {sub IR} = 2.5 × 10{sup 12} L {sub ☉} and the star formation rate is ∼250 M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1}, with the SED shape indicating substantial dust obscuration of the stellar light. The infrared to CO line luminosity ratio is ∼114 ± 19 L {sub ☉}/(K km s{sup –1} pc{sup 2}), similar to galaxies with similar SFRs selected at UV/optical to radio wavelengths. This discovery confirms the potential for molecular emission line surveys as a route to study populations of gas-rich galaxies in the future.« less

The impacts of non-renewable and renewable energy on CO2 emissions in Turkey.

PubMed

Bulut, Umit

2017-06-01

As a result of great increases in CO 2 emissions in the last few decades, many papers have examined the relationship between renewable energy and CO 2 emissions in the energy economics literature, because as a clean energy source, renewable energy can reduce CO 2 emissions and solve environmental problems stemming from increases in CO 2 emissions. When one analyses these papers, he/she will observe that they employ fixed parameter estimation methods, and time-varying effects of non-renewable and renewable energy consumption/production on greenhouse gas emissions are ignored. In order to fulfil this gap in the literature, this paper examines the effects of non-renewable and renewable energy on CO 2 emissions in Turkey over the period 1970-2013 by employing fixed parameter and time-varying parameter estimation methods. Estimation methods reveal that CO 2 emissions are positively related to non-renewable energy and renewable energy in Turkey. Since policy makers expect renewable energy to decrease CO 2 emissions, this paper argues that renewable energy is not able to satisfy the expectations of policy makers though fewer CO 2 emissions arise through production of electricity using renewable sources. In conclusion, the paper argues that policy makers should implement long-term energy policies in Turkey.

Analysis of CO2, CO and HC emission reduction in automobiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balan, K. N.; Valarmathi, T. N.; Reddy, Mannem Soma Harish; Aravinda Reddy, Gireddy; Sai Srinivas, Jammalamadaka K. M. K.; Vasan

2017-05-01

In the present scenario, the emission from automobiles is becoming a serious problem to the environment. Automobiles, thermal power stations and Industries majorly constitute to the emission of CO2, CO and HC. Though the CO2 available in the atmosphere will be captured by oceans, grasslands; they are not enough to control CO2 present in the atmosphere completely. Also advances in engine and vehicle technology continuously to reduce the emission from engine exhaust are not sufficient to reduce the HC and CO emission. This work concentrates on design, fabrication and analysis to reduce CO2, CO and HC emission from exhaust of automobiles by using molecular sieve 5A of 1.5mm. In this paper, the details of the fabrication, results and discussion about the process are discussed.

Financial development and sectoral CO2 emissions in Malaysia.

PubMed

Maji, Ibrahim Kabiru; Habibullah, Muzafar Shah; Saari, Mohd Yusof

2017-03-01

The paper examines the impacts of financial development on sectoral carbon emissions (CO 2 ) for environmental quality in Malaysia. Since the financial sector is considered as one of the sectors that will contribute to Malaysian economy to become a developed country by 2020, we utilize a cointegration method to investigate how financial development affects sectoral CO 2 emissions. The long-run results reveal that financial development increases CO 2 emissions from the transportation and oil and gas sector and reduces CO 2 emissions from manufacturing and construction sectors. However, the elasticity of financial development is not significant in explaining CO 2 emissions from the agricultural sector. The results for short-run elasticities were also consistent with the long-run results. We conclude that generally, financial development increases CO 2 emissions and reduces environmental quality in Malaysia.

Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China 2012: Inventory and Supply Chain Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bo; Zhang, Yaowen; Zhao, Xueli; Meng, Jing

2018-01-01

Reliable inventory information is critical in informing emission mitigation efforts. Using the latest officially released emission data, which is production based, we take a consumption perspective to estimate the non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for China in 2012. The non-CO2 GHG emissions, which cover CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6, amounted to 2003.0 Mt. CO2-eq (including 1871.9 Mt. CO2-eq from economic activities), much larger than the total CO2 emissions in some developed countries. Urban consumption (30.1%), capital formation (28.2%), and exports (20.6%) derived approximately four fifths of the total embodied emissions in final demand. Furthermore, the results from structural path analysis help identify critical embodied emission paths and key economic sectors in supply chains for mitigating non-CO2 GHG emissions in Chinese economic systems. The top 20 paths were responsible for half of the national total embodied emissions. Several industrial sectors such as Construction, Production and Supply of Electricity and Steam, Manufacture of Food and Tobacco and Manufacture of Chemicals, and Chemical Products played as the important transmission channels. Examining both production- and consumption-based non-CO2 GHG emissions will enrich our understanding of the influences of industrial positions, final consumption demands, and trades on national non-CO2 GHG emissions by considering the comprehensive abatement potentials in the supply chains.

Greg Brinkman | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Jorgenson, Ali Ehlen, and James H. Caldwell. 2016. Low Carbon Grid Study: Analysis of a 50% Emission the Western Wind and Solar Integration Phase 2 Study. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory . Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and Transmission

Trading-off emission reduction, carbon capture and geoengineering to reach the Paris agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasser, T.; Boucher, O.; Lecocq, F.; Obersteiner, M.

2017-12-01

We explore virtually all possible future pathways that respect the Paris agreement, with an innovative modeling framework. We show that immediate and extreme mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 species alike, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and/or solar radiation management (SRM) technologies are required. We analyze the tradeoffs between these solutions. We generate thousands of temperature change pathways that extend historical records, stay below 2°C, and aim at 1.5°C in the long run. Non-CO2 forcings are generated likewise. With a simple model of the Earth system, we then back-calculate anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with these pathways. Other key global variables such as ocean acidity, sea level and permafrost thaw are also simulated. From this large ensemble of fully consistent scenarios, we analyze subsets that meet certain criteria: physical targets, emission levels, technology use, or any combination thereof. We show that staying below 1.5°C is feasible if CO2 emissions peak before 2025 and non-CO2 forcings are also reduced to zero. In case of a positive long-term non-CO2 forcing (a mitigation floor), CDR is necessary. Alternatively, emissions can peak later and/or higher if SRM is allowed. For pathways overshooting 1.5°C, results depend on the overshoot's size and length. Because of thawing permafrost, virtually all overshoot pathways require CDR, unless non-CO2 species (possibly SRM) are cooling the system at the time of peak temperature. When considering additional physical targets, which can be relevant for preserving ecosystems, the space of allowable pathways is systematically reduced. Especially: limiting ocean acidification rules out SRM. The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) indicate that reaching even the strictest interpretation of the agreement is feasible. However, if SRM is ruled out and only a reasonable amount of CDR is allowed, NDCs are compatible with very few of our pathways (≈5%). If a mitigation floor is added on top of that, virtually no pathways remain (<1%). We conclude that, in its strictest interpretation, the Paris agreement relies heavily on currently non-existent (and potentially harmful) technologies. In a looser interpretation, these technologies may not be needed, although the window of opportunity is closing extremely fast.

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Proper accounting for time increases crop-based biofuels' greenhouse gas deficit versus petroleum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Hare, M.; Plevin, R. J.; Martin, J. I.; Jones, A. D.; Kendall, A.; Hopson, E.

2009-04-01

The global warming intensities of crop-based biofuels and fossil fuels differ not only in amount but also in their discharge patterns over time. Early discharges, for example, from market-mediated land use change, will have created more global warming by any time in the future than later discharges, owing to the slow decay of atmospheric CO2. A spreadsheet model of this process, BTIME, captures this important time pattern effect using the Bern CO2 decay model to allow fuels to be compared for policy decisions on the basis of their real warming effects with a variety of user-supplied parameter values. The model also allows economic discounting of climate effects extended far into the future. Compared to approaches that simply sum greenhouse gas emissions over time, recognizing the physics of atmospheric CO2 decay significantly increases the deficit relative to fossil fuel of any biofuel causing land use change.

Is obesity associated with global warming?

PubMed

Squalli, J

2014-12-01

Obesity is a national epidemic that imposes direct medical and indirect economic costs on society. Recent scholarly inquiries contend that obesity also contributes to global warming. The paper investigates the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and obesity. Cross-sectional state-level data for the year 2010. Multiple regression analysis using least squares with bootstrapped standard errors and quantile regression. States with higher rates of obesity are associated with higher CO2 and CH4 emissions (p < 0.05) and marginally associated with higher N2O emissions (p < 0.10), net of other factors. Reverting to the obesity rates of the year 2000 across the entire United States could decrease greenhouse gas emissions by about two percent, representing more than 136 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent. Future studies should establish clear causality between obesity and emissions by using longitudinal data while controlling for other relevant factors. They should also consider identifying means to net out the potential effects of carbon sinks, conversion of CH4 to energy, cross-state diversion, disposal, and transfer of municipal solid waste, and potentially lower energy consumption from increased sedentariness. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean acidification in a geoengineering context

PubMed Central

Williamson, Phillip; Turley, Carol

2012-01-01

Fundamental changes to marine chemistry are occurring because of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Ocean acidity (H+ concentration) and bicarbonate ion concentrations are increasing, whereas carbonate ion concentrations are decreasing. There has already been an average pH decrease of 0.1 in the upper ocean, and continued unconstrained carbon emissions would further reduce average upper ocean pH by approximately 0.3 by 2100. Laboratory experiments, observations and projections indicate that such ocean acidification may have ecological and biogeochemical impacts that last for many thousands of years. The future magnitude of such effects will be very closely linked to atmospheric CO2; they will, therefore, depend on the success of emission reduction, and could also be constrained by geoengineering based on most carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques. However, some ocean-based CDR approaches would (if deployed on a climatically significant scale) re-locate acidification from the upper ocean to the seafloor or elsewhere in the ocean interior. If solar radiation management were to be the main policy response to counteract global warming, ocean acidification would continue to be driven by increases in atmospheric CO2, although with additional temperature-related effects on CO2 and CaCO3 solubility and terrestrial carbon sequestration. PMID:22869801

CO2 Degassing at Kilauea Volcano: Implications for Primary Magma, Summit Reservoir Dynamics, and Magma Supply Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlach, T. M.; McGee, K. A.; Elias, T.; Sutton, A. J.; Doukas, M. P.

2001-12-01

We report a new CO2 emission rate of 8,500 tons/day (t/d) for the summit of Kilauea Volcano, a result several times larger than previous estimates. It is based on 12 experiments on three occasions over four years constraining the SO2 emission rate and the average CO2/SO2 of emissions along the 5.4-km summit COSPEC traverse (by COSPEC, NDIR CO2 analyzer, and CP-FTIR). The core of the summit plume is at ground level along the traverse and gives average CO2/SO2 values that are representative of the overall summit emission, even though CO2 and SO2 variations are commonly uncorrelated. CO2 and SO2 concentrations exceed background by 200-1,000 ppm and 1-7 ppm respectively. Nighttime measurements exclude Park auto exhaust as a source of CO2. The summit CO2 emission rate is nearly constant (95% confidence interval = 300 t/d), despite variable summit SO2 emission rates (62-240 t/d) and CO2/SO2 (54-183). Including other known CO2 emissions on the volcano (mainly from the Pu`u `O`o eruption) gives a total emission rate of about 8,800 t/d. Thus summit CO2 emissions comprise 97% of the total known CO2 output, consistent with the hypothesis that all primary magma supplied to Kilauea arrives under the summit caldera and is thoroughly degassed of excess CO2. A persistent large CO2 anomaly of 200-1,000 ppm indicates the entry to the summit reservoir is beneath a km2-area east of Halemaumau. The bulk CO2 content of primary magma is about 0.70 wt%, inferred from the CO2 emission rate and Kilauea's magma supply rate (0.18 km3/y [Cayol et al., Science, 288, 2343, 2000]). Most of the CO2 is present as exsolved vapor (3.6-11.7 vol%) at summit reservoir depths (2-7 km), making the primary magma strongly buoyant. Magma chamber replenishment models show that robust turbulent mixing of primary and reservoir magma prevents frequent eruption of buoyant primary magma in the summit region. The escape of 90-95% of the CO2 from the summit reservoir provides a potential proxy for monitoring the magma supply rate. Streaming CO2-rich vapor causes fractional degassing of H2O and SO2 from reservoir magma, but scrubbing minimizes summit SO2 emissions.

Behavioural impairment in reef fishes caused by ocean acidification at CO2 seeps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munday, Philip L.; Cheal, Alistair J.; Dixson, Danielle L.; Rummer, Jodie L.; Fabricius, Katharina E.

2014-06-01

Experiments have shown that the behaviour of reef fishes can be seriously affected by projected future carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the ocean. However, whether fish can acclimate to elevated CO2 over the longer term, and the consequences of altered behaviour on the structure of fish communities, are unknown. We used marine CO2 seeps in Papua New Guinea as a natural laboratory to test these questions. Here we show that juvenile reef fishes at CO2 seeps exhibit behavioural abnormalities similar to those seen in laboratory experiments. Fish from CO2 seeps were attracted to predator odour, did not distinguish between odours of different habitats, and exhibited bolder behaviour than fish from control reefs. High CO2 did not, however, have any effect on metabolic rate or aerobic performance. Contrary to expectations, fish diversity and community structure differed little between CO2 seeps and nearby control reefs. Differences in abundances of some fishes could be driven by the different coral community at CO2 seeps rather than by the direct effects of high CO2. Our results suggest that recruitment of juvenile fish from outside the seeps, along with fewer predators within the seeps, is currently sufficient to offset any negative effects of high CO2 within the seeps. However, continuous exposure does not reduce the effect of high CO2 on behaviour in natural reef habitat, and this could be a serious problem for fish communities in the future when ocean acidification becomes widespread as a result of continued uptake of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Low-CO(2) electricity and hydrogen: a help or hindrance for electric and hydrogen vehicles?

PubMed

Wallington, T J; Grahn, M; Anderson, J E; Mueller, S A; Williander, M I; Lindgren, K

2010-04-01

The title question was addressed using an energy model that accounts for projected global energy use in all sectors (transportation, heat, and power) of the global economy. Global CO(2) emissions were constrained to achieve stabilization at 400-550 ppm by 2100 at the lowest total system cost (equivalent to perfect CO(2) cap-and-trade regime). For future scenarios where vehicle technology costs were sufficiently competitive to advantage either hydrogen or electric vehicles, increased availability of low-cost, low-CO(2) electricity/hydrogen delayed (but did not prevent) the use of electric/hydrogen-powered vehicles in the model. This occurs when low-CO(2) electricity/hydrogen provides more cost-effective CO(2) mitigation opportunities in the heat and power energy sectors than in transportation. Connections between the sectors leading to this counterintuitive result need consideration in policy and technology planning.

Implementation Targets for the Paris Climate Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.; Hope, A. P.; Tribett, W. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T. P.

2016-12-01

We provide an overview of reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) needed to achieve either the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °C warming) of the Paris Climate Agreement. We will show how much energy must be produced, either by renewables that do not emit significant levels of atmospheric GHGs or via carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) coupled to fossil fuel power plants, to meet forecast global energy demand out to 2060. These projections will be based on two modeling frameworks: our empirical model of global climate (EM-GC) and the CMIP 5 GCMs used throughout IPCC (2013). For each framework, we will show estimates of transient climate response to cumulative emission of carbon to place limits on future emission of CO2 via the combustion of fossil fuel. We will also quantify the impact of future atmospheric CH4 on achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Energy-dominated local carbon emissions in Beijing 2007: inventory and input-output analysis.

PubMed

Guo, Shan; Liu, J B; Shao, Ling; Li, J S; An, Y R

2012-01-01

For greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by Beijing economy 2007, a concrete emission inventory covering carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is presented and associated with an input-output analysis to reveal the local GHG embodiment in final demand and trade without regard to imported emissions. The total direct GHG emissions amount to 1.06E + 08 t CO(2)-eq, of which energy-related CO(2) emissions comprise 90.49%, non-energy-related CO(2) emissions 6.35%, CH(4) emissions 2.33%, and N(2)O emissions 0.83%, respectively. In terms of energy-related CO(2) emissions, the largest source is coal with a percentage of 53.08%, followed by coke with 10.75% and kerosene with 8.44%. Sector 26 (Construction Industry) holds the top local emissions embodied in final demand of 1.86E + 07 t CO(2)-eq due to its considerable capital, followed by energy-intensive Sectors 27 (Transport and Storage) and 14 (Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals). The GHG emissions embodied in Beijing's exports are 4.90E + 07 t CO(2)-eq, accounting for 46.01% of the total emissions embodied in final demand. The sound scientific database totally based on local emissions is an important basis to make effective environment and energy policies for local decision makers.

Energy-Dominated Local Carbon Emissions in Beijing 2007: Inventory and Input-Output Analysis

PubMed Central

Guo, Shan; Liu, J. B.; Shao, Ling; Li, J. S.; An, Y. R.

2012-01-01

For greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by Beijing economy 2007, a concrete emission inventory covering carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) is presented and associated with an input-output analysis to reveal the local GHG embodiment in final demand and trade without regard to imported emissions. The total direct GHG emissions amount to 1.06E + 08 t CO2-eq, of which energy-related CO2 emissions comprise 90.49%, non-energy-related CO2 emissions 6.35%, CH4 emissions 2.33%, and N2O emissions 0.83%, respectively. In terms of energy-related CO2 emissions, the largest source is coal with a percentage of 53.08%, followed by coke with 10.75% and kerosene with 8.44%. Sector 26 (Construction Industry) holds the top local emissions embodied in final demand of 1.86E + 07 t CO2-eq due to its considerable capital, followed by energy-intensive Sectors 27 (Transport and Storage) and 14 (Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals). The GHG emissions embodied in Beijing's exports are 4.90E + 07 t CO2-eq, accounting for 46.01% of the total emissions embodied in final demand. The sound scientific database totally based on local emissions is an important basis to make effective environment and energy policies for local decision makers. PMID:23193385

Global Air Quality and Climate Impacts of Mitigating Short-lived Climate Pollution in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, K.; Unger, N.; Heyes, C.; Kiesewetter, G.; Klimont, Z.; Schoepp, W.; Wagner, F.

2014-12-01

China is a major emitter of harmful air pollutants, including the short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) and their precursors. Implementation of pollution control technologies provides a mechanism for simultaneously protecting human and ecosystem health and achieving near-term climate co-benefits; however, predicting the outcomes of technical and policy interventions is challenging because the SLCPs participate in both climate warming and cooling and share many common emission sources. Here, we present the results of a combined regional integrated assessment and global climate modeling study aimed at quantifying the near-term climate and air quality co-benefits of selective control of Chinese air pollution emissions. Results from IIASA's Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model indicate that methane emission reductions make up > 75% of possible CO2-equivalent emission reductions of the SLCPs and their precursors in China in 2030. A multi-pollutant emission reduction scenario incorporating the 2030 Chinese pollution control measures with the highest potential for future climate impact is applied to the NASA ModelE2 - Yale Interactive Terrestrial Biosphere (NASA ModelE2-YIBs) global carbon - chemistry - climate model to assess the regional and long-range impacts of Chinese SLCP mitigation measures. Using model simulations that incorporate dynamic methane emissions and photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emissions, we quantify the impacts of Chinese reductions of the short-lived air pollutants on radiative forcing and on surface ozone and particulate air pollution. Present-day modeled methane mole fractions are evaluated against SCIAMACHY methane columns and NOAA ESRL/GMD surface flask measurements.

Design Criteria for Future Fuels and Related Power Systems Addressing the Impacts of Non-CO2 Pollutants on Human Health and Climate Change.

PubMed

Schauer, James Jay

2015-01-01

Concerns over the economics, supply chain, and emissions of greenhouse gases associated with the wide use of fossil fuels have led to increasing interest in developing alternative and renewable fuels for stationary power generation and transportation systems. Although there is considerable uncertainty regarding the economic and environmental impacts of alternative and renewable fuels, there is a great need for assessment of potential and emerging fuels to guide research priorities and infrastructure investment. Likewise, there is a great need to identify potential unintended adverse impacts of new fuels and related power systems before they are widely adopted. Historically, the environmental impacts of emerging fuels and power systems have largely focused on carbon dioxide emissions, often called the carbon footprint, which is used to assess impacts on climate change. Such assessments largely ignore the large impacts of emissions of other air pollutants. Given the potential changes in emissions of air pollutants associated with the large-scale use of new and emerging fuels and power systems, there is a great need to better guide efforts to develop new fuels and power systems that can avoid unexpected adverse impacts on the environment and human health. This review covers the nature of emissions, including the key components and impacts from the use of fuels, and the design criteria for future fuels and associated power systems to assure that the non-CO2 adverse impacts of stationary power generation and transportation are minimized.

Early opportunities of CO2 geological storage deployment in coal chemical industry in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Ning; Li, Xiaochun; Liu, Shengnan

2014-11-12

Abstract: Carbon dioxide capture and geological storage (CCS) is regarded as a promising option for climate change mitigation; however, the high capture cost is the major barrier to large-scale deployment of CCS technologies. High-purity CO2 emission sources can reduce or even avoid the capture requirements and costs. Among these high-purity CO2 sources, certain coal chemical industry processes are very important, especially in China. In this paper, the basic characteristics of coal chemical industries in China is investigated and analyzed. As of 2013 there were more than 100 coal chemical plants in operation or in late planning stages. These emission sourcesmore » together emit 430 million tons CO2 per year, of which about 30% are emit high-purity and pure CO2 (CO2 concentration >80% and >99% respectively).Four typical source-sink pairs are studied by a techno-economic evaluation, including site screening and selection, source-sink matching, concept design, and experienced economic evaluation. The technical-economic evaluation shows that the levelized cost of a CO2 capture and aquifer storage project in the coal chemistry industry ranges from 14 USD/t to 17 USD/t CO2. When a 15USD/t CO2 tax and 15USD/t for CO2 sold to EOR are considered, the levelized cost of CCS project are negative, which suggests a net economic benefit from some of these CCS projects. This might provide China early opportunities to deploy and scale-up CCS projects in the near future.« less

Options for near-term phaseout of CO(2) emissions from coal use in the United States.

PubMed

Kharecha, Pushker A; Kutscher, Charles F; Hansen, James E; Mazria, Edward

2010-06-01

The global climate problem becomes tractable if CO(2) emissions from coal use are phased out rapidly and emissions from unconventional fossil fuels (e.g., oil shale and tar sands) are prohibited. This paper outlines technology options for phasing out coal emissions in the United States by approximately 2030. We focus on coal for physical and practical reasons and on the U.S. because it is most responsible for accumulated fossil fuel CO(2) in the atmosphere today, specifically targeting electricity production, which is the primary use of coal. While we recognize that coal emissions must be phased out globally, we believe U.S. leadership is essential. A major challenge for reducing U.S. emissions is that coal provides the largest proportion of base load power, i.e., power satisfying minimum electricity demand. Because this demand is relatively constant and coal has a high carbon intensity, utility carbon emissions are largely due to coal. The current U.S. electric grid incorporates little renewable power, most of which is not base load power. However, this can readily be changed within the next 2-3 decades. Eliminating coal emissions also requires improved efficiency, a "smart grid", additional energy storage, and advanced nuclear power. Any further coal usage must be accompanied by carbon capture and storage (CCS). We suggest that near-term emphasis should be on efficiency measures and substitution of coal-fired power by renewables and third-generation nuclear plants, since these technologies have been successfully demonstrated at the relevant (commercial) scale. Beyond 2030, these measures can be supplemented by CCS at power plants and, as needed, successfully demonstrated fourth-generation reactors. We conclude that U.S. coal emissions could be phased out by 2030 using existing technologies or ones that could be commercially competitive with coal within about a decade. Elimination of fossil fuel subsidies and a substantial rising price on carbon emissions are the root requirements for a clean, emissions-free future.

The ocean carbon sink - impacts, vulnerabilities and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinze, C.; Meyer, S.; Goris, N.; Anderson, L.; Steinfeldt, R.; Chang, N.; Le Quéré, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.

2015-06-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is, next to water vapour, considered to be the most important natural greenhouse gas on Earth. Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions such as fossil fuel burning, land-use change or cement production over the past 250 years have given cause for concern that changes in Earth's climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20 000 years. Investigating global carbon cycle pathways and finding suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies has, therefore, become of major concern in many research fields. The oceans have a key role in regulating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and currently take up about 25% of annual anthropogenic carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon inventory will affect its ecosystems and their services. This requires comprehensive investigations, including high-quality ocean carbon measurements on different spatial and temporal scales, the management of data in sophisticated databases, the application of Earth system models to provide future projections for given emission scenarios as well as a global synthesis and outreach to policy makers. In this paper, the current understanding of the ocean as an important carbon sink is reviewed with respect to these topics. Emphasis is placed on the complex interplay of different physical, chemical and biological processes that yield both positive and negative air-sea flux values for natural and anthropogenic CO2 as well as on increased CO2 (uptake) as the regulating force of the radiative warming of the atmosphere and the gradual acidification of the oceans. Major future ocean carbon challenges in the fields of ocean observations, modelling and process research as well as the relevance of other biogeochemical cycles and greenhouse gases are discussed.

Photocatalytic conversion of CO2 into value-added and renewable fuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Lan; Xu, Yi-Jun

2015-07-01

The increasing energy crisis and the worsening global climate caused by the excessive utilization of fossil fuel have boosted tremendous research activities about CO2 capture, storage and utilization. Artificial photosynthesis that uses solar light energy to convert CO2 to form value-added and renewable fuels such as methane or methanol has been consistently drawing increasing attention. It is like killing two birds with one stone since it can not only reduce the greenhouse effects caused by CO2 emission but also produce value added chemicals for alternative energy supplying. This review provides a brief introduction about the basic principles of artificial photosynthesis of CO2 and the progress made in exploring more efficient photocatalysts from the viewpoint of light harvesting and photogenerated charge carriers boosting. Moreover, the undergoing mechanisms of CO2 photoreduction are discussed with selected examples, in terms of adsorption of reactants, CO2 activation as well as the possible reaction pathways. Finally, perspectives on future research directions and open issues in CO2 photoreduction are outlined.

40 CFR 75.19 - Optional SO 2, NO X, and CO 2 emissions calculation for low mass emissions (LME) units.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Optional SO 2, NO X, and CO 2... Provisions § 75.19 Optional SO 2, NO X, and CO 2 emissions calculation for low mass emissions (LME) units. (a...) Determination of SO 2, NO X, and CO 2 emission rates. (i) If the unit combusts only natural gas and/or fuel oil...

40 CFR 75.19 - Optional SO 2, NO X, and CO 2 emissions calculation for low mass emissions (LME) units.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Optional SO 2, NO X, and CO 2... Provisions § 75.19 Optional SO 2, NO X, and CO 2 emissions calculation for low mass emissions (LME) units. (a...) Determination of SO 2, NO X, and CO 2 emission rates. (i) If the unit combusts only natural gas and/or fuel oil...

Estimates of future warming-induced methane emissions from hydrate offshore west Svalbard for a range of climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marín-Moreno, Héctor; Minshull, Timothy A.; Westbrook, Graham K.; Sinha, Bablu

2015-05-01

Methane hydrate close to the hydrate stability limit in seafloor sediment could represent an important source of methane to the oceans and atmosphere as the oceans warm. We investigate the extent to which patterns of past and future ocean-temperature fluctuations influence hydrate stability in a region offshore West Svalbard where active gas venting has been observed. We model the transient behavior of the gas hydrate stability zone at 400-500 m water depth (mwd) in response to past temperature changes inferred from historical measurements and proxy data and we model future changes predicted by seven climate models and two climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). We show that over the past 2000 year, a combination of annual and decadal temperature fluctuations could have triggered multiple hydrate-sourced methane emissions from seabed shallower than 400 mwd during episodes when the multidecadal average temperature was similar to that over the last century (˜2.6°C). These temperature fluctuations can explain current methane emissions at 400 mwd, but decades to centuries of ocean warming are required to generate emissions in water deeper than 420 m. In the venting area, future methane emissions are relatively insensitive to the choice of climate model and RCP scenario until 2050 year, but are more sensitive to the RCP scenario after 2050 year. By 2100 CE, we estimate an ocean uptake of 97-1050 TgC from marine Arctic hydrate-sourced methane emissions, which is 0.06-0.67% of the ocean uptake from anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the period 1750-2011.

New Technologies for Dealing with CO2 Emission and Carbonate Discharge Control Issues Associated with Energy Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuwati, Abdulwahab

Carbonates and bicarbonates as two water contaminants and CO2 as an air pollutant are the byproducts of a number of fossil fuel based energy production processes. It is well known that the eco-environmental impacts of the carbon based compounds are rather negative. Discharge of co-produced waters containing carbonates and bicarbonates can lead to the significant increase of alkalinity and sodicity and eventual degradation of the quality of soils. In addition, many studies have indicated that huge CO2 emission into the atmosphere can result in disastrous climate changes in the future. Therefore, people are increasingly interested in controlling these carbon compounds. A number of technologies such as ion exchange and electrodialysis have been developed for removal of carbonates and bicarbonates from co-produced waters. However, they are too expensive to be widely used by energy producers, farmers and ranchers. Although many approaches including membrane filtration have been explored for CO2 emission control, their costs are not acceptable to fossil fuel generating companies at all. Therefore, searching cost-effective methods for control of the carbon compounds have attracted many researchers' attentions. New technologies have been developed in this research to overcome the abovementioned challenges. For example, a regenerable solid sorbent (KTi) synthesized with K2CO3 and nanoporous TiO(OH)2 can be used to capture CO2. The CO2 sorption capacity of KTi is about 36 times higher than that of conventional K2CO3. The highest CO2 sorption capacity achieved with KTi is 1.69 mmol-CO2/g-KTi. It should be noted that the theoretical sorption capacity of the KTi can be as high as 3.32 mmol-CO 2/g-KTi. Therefore, the potential and improvement in CO2 sorption capacity with the use of nanoporous TiO(OH)2 is significant. Moreover, nanostructured KTi based CO2 separation (from flue gas) does not need additional high specific-heat capacity and high vaporization-enthalpy H2O. This creates a favorable condition for considerable decrease in energy consumption of CO2 capture in coal-fired power plants. It is expected that all the technologies developed in this research could significantly benefit energy producers, although many works need to be done before they can be commercialized.

Big emitting nations and the 2°C target:beyond integrated assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bows-Larkin, Alice; Sharmina, Maria; Kuriakose, Jaise; Anderson, Kevin

2015-04-01

This year, the United Nations Conference of the Parties in Paris is tasked with delivering a land-mark agreement on avoiding the 2°C warming associated with 'dangerous interference with the climate system'. If this happens, it will re-invigorate analyses of how global and national energy systems can deliver the rates of mitigation accompanying the 2°C threshold. Commonly such studies rely on detailed integrated assessment models combining economic and physical relationships to describe climate and energy systems. These allow the user to develop 'feasible' scenarios in terms of technology, infrastructure and efficiency change. This paper reflects upon the reliance of decision makers on the outcomes of these models, and their suitability for producing plausible outcomes. One criticism is how they can explore future societies under the pressures of climate change mitigation and adaptation given that their economic parameterisations are underpinned by historical relationships fit for a world unperturbed by climate change. A second relates to their theoretical basis being appropriate for articulating the outcome of marginal change, when the very futures they are set up to explore involve non-marginal adjustments - very radical cuts in CO2, or severe climate change impacts. Quantifying societal responses within such models is a particular challenge. Finally, these models downplay risks through disregarding low-probability, high-impact events and their consequences, including wars and migration. It is argued here that as currently formulated these tools are unsuitable for modelling the revolutionary transformations necessary to stay within 2°C carbon budgets, or similarly, futures with higher levels of warming and subsequent impacts. To address this deficiency, this paper takes a complementary approach to contextually explore the 'possibility space' appropriate for avoiding 2°C. In contrast to exercises that build future scenarios using 'immutable' relationships within and between the energy and climate systems, a more transparent and dynamic framing based on highly constrained cumulative carbon budgets is proposed. Building on previous assessments that use a similar approach by authors Anderson and Bows, this analysis looks beyond the contested 'Annex 1' and 'non-Annex 1' division to backcast what the remaining CO2 budget implies for the world's top emitting nations. The analysis takes the top 25 nations, responsible for 85% of global CO2, and groups these nations on the basis of similarities within their energy systems. Using a range of explicit variables a suite of scenarios for these groups, as well as the 'rest of the world', 'deforestation' and 'bunker fuel CO2' are then developed, all constrained within a range of 2°C carbon budgets. By varying the levels of near-term emissions from each group's energy system, under a highly constrained CO2 budget, important sensitivities are revealed. Results demonstrate the significance of the coming 1-5 years' levels of emissions of the highest emitting groups and the importance of bunker-fuel emissions in shaping our collective futures. They also illustrate that only non-marginal futures with radical transitions across all energy systems can now be reconciled with the 2°C policy objective.

Independent evaluation of point source fossil fuel CO2 emissions to better than 10%

PubMed Central

Turnbull, Jocelyn Christine; Keller, Elizabeth D.; Norris, Margaret W.; Wiltshire, Rachael M.

2016-01-01

Independent estimates of fossil fuel CO2 (CO2ff) emissions are key to ensuring that emission reductions and regulations are effective and provide needed transparency and trust. Point source emissions are a key target because a small number of power plants represent a large portion of total global emissions. Currently, emission rates are known only from self-reported data. Atmospheric observations have the potential to meet the need for independent evaluation, but useful results from this method have been elusive, due to challenges in distinguishing CO2ff emissions from the large and varying CO2 background and in relating atmospheric observations to emission flux rates with high accuracy. Here we use time-integrated observations of the radiocarbon content of CO2 (14CO2) to quantify the recently added CO2ff mole fraction at surface sites surrounding a point source. We demonstrate that both fast-growing plant material (grass) and CO2 collected by absorption into sodium hydroxide solution provide excellent time-integrated records of atmospheric 14CO2. These time-integrated samples allow us to evaluate emissions over a period of days to weeks with only a modest number of measurements. Applying the same time integration in an atmospheric transport model eliminates the need to resolve highly variable short-term turbulence. Together these techniques allow us to independently evaluate point source CO2ff emission rates from atmospheric observations with uncertainties of better than 10%. This uncertainty represents an improvement by a factor of 2 over current bottom-up inventory estimates and previous atmospheric observation estimates and allows reliable independent evaluation of emissions. PMID:27573818

Independent evaluation of point source fossil fuel CO2 emissions to better than 10%.

PubMed

Turnbull, Jocelyn Christine; Keller, Elizabeth D; Norris, Margaret W; Wiltshire, Rachael M

2016-09-13

Independent estimates of fossil fuel CO2 (CO2ff) emissions are key to ensuring that emission reductions and regulations are effective and provide needed transparency and trust. Point source emissions are a key target because a small number of power plants represent a large portion of total global emissions. Currently, emission rates are known only from self-reported data. Atmospheric observations have the potential to meet the need for independent evaluation, but useful results from this method have been elusive, due to challenges in distinguishing CO2ff emissions from the large and varying CO2 background and in relating atmospheric observations to emission flux rates with high accuracy. Here we use time-integrated observations of the radiocarbon content of CO2 ((14)CO2) to quantify the recently added CO2ff mole fraction at surface sites surrounding a point source. We demonstrate that both fast-growing plant material (grass) and CO2 collected by absorption into sodium hydroxide solution provide excellent time-integrated records of atmospheric (14)CO2 These time-integrated samples allow us to evaluate emissions over a period of days to weeks with only a modest number of measurements. Applying the same time integration in an atmospheric transport model eliminates the need to resolve highly variable short-term turbulence. Together these techniques allow us to independently evaluate point source CO2ff emission rates from atmospheric observations with uncertainties of better than 10%. This uncertainty represents an improvement by a factor of 2 over current bottom-up inventory estimates and previous atmospheric observation estimates and allows reliable independent evaluation of emissions.

Biogeologic Carbon Sequestration - a Cost-Effective Proposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, G. H.; Kuhns, R.

2009-05-01

Carbon sequestration has been proposed as a strategy for reducing the impact of carbon dioxide emissions from burning of fossil fuels. There are two main routes: 1) capture CO2 emissions from power plants or other large point sources followed by some form of "burial/sequestration", and 2) extraction of CO2 from the ambient atmosphere (involving substantial concentration relative to atmospheric levels) also followed by burial/sequestration. In either case the goal is to achieve significant long-term isolation of CO2 at an economically sustainable price, perhaps measured by some "market price" for CO2, such as the European carbon futures market, where the price is now (2/3/09) about 14-15/tonne of CO2. The second approach, removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, has the potential benefit of reversing the previous buildup of atmospheric CO2, and perhaps even providing a means to "adjust" terrestrial climate by regulating atmospheric CO2 concentrations. For the present, ideas of planetary "geo-engineering" are not as popular as reducing the impact of continued CO2 emissions. In fact, the energy and capital costs of extraction from a dilute atmosphere appear to make this approach uneconomical. Proposals to fertilize the open ocean suffer from concerns about long term ecosystem effects, to say nothing of a lack of verifiability. There is, however, an approach using biological systems that can not only extract significant amounts of CO2, but can do so cost-effectively. Lakes are known in which primary productivity approaches or exceeds 1gm C/cm2-yr. This equates to removal of 35,000 tonnes of CO2 per km2 per year, with a "market value" of about 500,000/yr. Such productivity only occurs under highly eutrophic conditions, and presumably requires significant nutrient additions. As such it would be unthinkable to pursue this technique on a large scale in extant lakes. If, however, it is possible to produce one or more large artificial lakes under acceptable conditions it is conceivable that this approach to carbon sequestration could prove invaluable in both the near and long term.

Air pollution radiative forcing from specific emissions sectors at 2030

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unger, Nadine; Shindell, Drew T.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Streets, David G.

2008-01-01

Reduction of short-lived air pollutants can contribute to mitigate global warming in the near-term with ancillary benefits to human health. However, the radiative forcings of short-lived air pollutants depend on the location and source type of the precursor emissions. We apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify near-future (2030 A1B) global annual mean radiative forcing by ozone (O3) and sulfate from six emissions sectors in seven geographic regions. At 2030 the net forcings from O3, sulfate, black and organic carbon, and indirect CH4 effects for each emission sector are (in mWm-2) biomass burning, +95; domestic, +68; transportation, +67; industry, -131; and power, -224. Biomass burning emissions in East Asia and central and southern Africa, domestic biofuel emissions in East Asia, south Asia, and central and southern Africa, and transportation emissions in Europe and North America have large net positive forcings and are therefore attractive targets to counter global warming. Power and industry emissions from East Asia, south Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East have large net negative forcings. Therefore air quality control measures that affect these regional sectors require offsetting climate measures to avoid a warming impact. Linear relationships exist between O3 forcing and biomass burning and domestic biofuel CO precursor emissions independent of region with sensitivity of +0.2 mWm-2/TgCO. Similarly, linear relationships exist between sulfate forcing and SO2 precursor emissions that depend upon region but are independent of sector with sensitivities ranging from -3 to -12 mWm-2/TgS.

40 CFR 98.36 - Data reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... fossil fuels only, the annual CO2 emissions for all fuels combined. Reporting CO2 emissions by type of fuel is not required. (ii) For units that burn both fossil fuels and biomass, the annual CO2 emissions from combustion of all fossil fuels combined and the annual CO2 emissions from combustion of all...

40 CFR 98.272 - GHGs to report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... listed in paragraphs (a) through (f) of this section: (a) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each kraft or soda chemical recovery furnace. (b) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each sulfite chemical recovery combustion unit. (c) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each stand...

40 CFR 98.272 - GHGs to report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... listed in paragraphs (a) through (f) of this section: (a) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each kraft or soda chemical recovery furnace. (b) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each sulfite chemical recovery combustion unit. (c) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each stand...

40 CFR 98.272 - GHGs to report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... listed in paragraphs (a) through (f) of this section: (a) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each kraft or soda chemical recovery furnace. (b) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each sulfite chemical recovery combustion unit. (c) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each stand...

40 CFR 98.272 - GHGs to report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... listed in paragraphs (a) through (f) of this section: (a) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each kraft or soda chemical recovery furnace. (b) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each sulfite chemical recovery combustion unit. (c) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each stand...

40 CFR 98.272 - GHGs to report.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... listed in paragraphs (a) through (f) of this section: (a) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each kraft or soda chemical recovery furnace. (b) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each sulfite chemical recovery combustion unit. (c) CO2, biogenic CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from each stand...

Global terrestrial N2O budget for present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olin, Stefan; Xing, Xu-Ri; Wårlind, David; Eliasson, Peter; Smith, Ben; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

Nitrogen (N) plays an important role in plant productivity and physiology and is the main limiting nutrient in a majority of the terrestrial ecosystems. The enhanced input of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) in agriculture have enhanced global food production, but with adverse effects on biodiversity and water quality, and substantially increased emissions of N trace gases that affect air quality and climate. Emissions of N gases affects the climate, either through cloud forming nitrogen oxides (NOx) gases or as greenhouse gases, where nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important being approximately 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study we use the process-based global vegetation model Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) (Olin et al. 2015) that recently have incorporated a new soil N transformation scheme, adopted from Xu-Ri and Prentice (2008), which makes it possible to study the N2O emission respond to changes in climate and CO2 concentration as well as anthropogenic N enhancements on a global scale. We present here results from the validation of the new model against site-scale N2O measurements from agricultural and non-agricultural ecosystems. We will also present results from a study to examine how land use, land use change and anthropogenic N fertilisation influence historical and future global N2O emissions. This new development represents a key component within future projects in CMIP6 (LUMIP) and in EC-Earth for the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO. Olin, S., Lindeskog, M., Pugh, T., Schurgers, G., Mischurow, M., Wårlind, D., Zaehle, S., Stocker, B., Smith, B. and Arneth, A. 2015. Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching. Earth System Dynamics, 6, 745-768. Xu-Ri and Prentice IC. 2008. Terrestrial nitrogen cycle simulation with a dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology, 14, 1745-1764.

Measurement of CO 2, CO, SO 2, and NO emissions from coal-based thermal power plants in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, N.; Mukherjee, I.; Santra, A. K.; Chowdhury, S.; Chakraborty, S.; Bhattacharya, S.; Mitra, A. P.; Sharma, C.

Measurements of CO 2 (direct GHG) and CO, SO 2, NO (indirect GHGs) were conducted on-line at some of the coal-based thermal power plants in India. The objective of the study was three-fold: to quantify the measured emissions in terms of emission coefficient per kg of coal and per kWh of electricity, to calculate the total possible emission from Indian thermal power plants, and subsequently to compare them with some previous studies. Instrument IMR 2800P Flue Gas Analyzer was used on-line to measure the emission rates of CO 2, CO, SO 2, and NO at 11 numbers of generating units of different ratings. Certain quality assurance (QA) and quality control (QC) techniques were also adopted to gather the data so as to avoid any ambiguity in subsequent data interpretation. For the betterment of data interpretation, the requisite statistical parameters (standard deviation and arithmetic mean) for the measured emissions have been also calculated. The emission coefficients determined for CO 2, CO, SO 2, and NO have been compared with their corresponding values as obtained in the studies conducted by other groups. The total emissions of CO 2, CO, SO 2, and NO calculated on the basis of the emission coefficients for the year 2003-2004 have been found to be 465.667, 1.583, 4.058, and 1.129 Tg, respectively.

Long-term changes in CO(2) emissions in Austria and Czechoslovakia-Identifying the drivers of environmental pressures.

PubMed

Gingrich, Simone; Kušková, Petra; Steinberger, Julia K

2011-02-01

This study presents fossil-fuel related CO(2) emissions in Austria and Czechoslovakia (current Czech Republic and Slovakia) for 1830-2000. The drivers of CO(2) emissions are discussed by investigating the variables of the standard Kaya identity for 1920-2000 and conducting a comparative Index Decomposition Analysis. Proxy data on industrial production and household consumption are analysed to understand the role of the economic structure. CO(2) emissions increased in both countries in the long run. Czechoslovakia was a stronger emitter of CO(2) throughout the time period, but per-capita emissions significantly differed only after World War I, when Czechoslovakia and Austria became independent. The difference in CO(2) emissions increased until the mid-1980s (the period of communism in Czechoslovakia), explained by the energy intensity and the composition effects, and higher industrial production in Czechoslovakia. Counterbalancing factors were the income effect and household consumption. After the Velvet revolution in 1990, Czechoslovak CO(2) emissions decreased, and the energy composition effect (and industrial production) lost importance. Despite their different political and economic development, Austria and Czechoslovakia reached similar levels of per-capita CO(2) emissions in the late 20th century. Neither Austrian "eco-efficiency" nor Czechoslovak restructuring have been effective in reducing CO(2) emissions to a sustainable level.

Simultaneous reductions in emissions of black carbon and co-emitted species will weaken the aerosol net cooling effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z. L.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, X. Y.

2015-04-01

Black carbon (BC), a distinct type of carbonaceous material formed from the incomplete combustion of fossil and biomass based fuels under certain conditions, can interact with solar radiation and clouds through its strong light-absorption ability, thereby warming the Earth's climate system. Some studies have even suggested that global warming could be slowed down in the short term by eliminating BC emission due to its short lifetime. In this study, we estimate the influence of removing some sources of BC and other co-emitted species on the aerosol radiative effect by using an aerosol-climate atmosphere-only model BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice cover, in combination with the aerosol emissions from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. We find that the global annual mean aerosol net cooling effect at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) will be enhanced by 0.12 W m-2 compared with recent past year 2000 levels if the emissions of only BC are reduced to the level projected for 2100 based on the RCP2.6 scenario. This will be beneficial~for the mitigation of global warming. However, both aerosol negative direct and indirect radiative effects are weakened when BC and its co-emitted species (sulfur dioxide and organic carbon) are simultaneously reduced. Relative to year 2000 levels, the global annual mean aerosol net cooling effect at the TOA will be weakened by 1.7-2.0 W m-2 if the emissions of all these aerosols are decreased to the levels projected for 2100 in different ways based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Because there are no effective ways to remove the BC exclusively without influencing the other co-emitted components, our results therefore indicate that a reduction in BC emission can lead to an unexpected warming on the Earth's climate system in the future.

The Effect of Compression Ratio, Fuel Octane Rating, and Ethanol Content on Spark-Ignition Engine Efficiency.

PubMed

Leone, Thomas G; Anderson, James E; Davis, Richard S; Iqbal, Asim; Reese, Ronald A; Shelby, Michael H; Studzinski, William M

2015-09-15

Light-duty vehicles (LDVs) in the United States and elsewhere are required to meet increasingly challenging regulations on fuel economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as well as criteria pollutant emissions. New vehicle trends to improve efficiency include higher compression ratio, downsizing, turbocharging, downspeeding, and hybridization, each involving greater operation of spark-ignited (SI) engines under higher-load, knock-limited conditions. Higher octane ratings for regular-grade gasoline (with greater knock resistance) are an enabler for these technologies. This literature review discusses both fuel and engine factors affecting knock resistance and their contribution to higher engine efficiency and lower tailpipe CO2 emissions. Increasing compression ratios for future SI engines would be the primary response to a significant increase in fuel octane ratings. Existing LDVs would see more advanced spark timing and more efficient combustion phasing. Higher ethanol content is one available option for increasing the octane ratings of gasoline and would provide additional engine efficiency benefits for part and full load operation. An empirical calculation method is provided that allows estimation of expected vehicle efficiency, volumetric fuel economy, and CO2 emission benefits for future LDVs through higher compression ratios for different assumptions on fuel properties and engine types. Accurate "tank-to-wheel" estimates of this type are necessary for "well-to-wheel" analyses of increased gasoline octane ratings in the context of light duty vehicle transportation.

Assessment for fuel consumption and exhaust emissions of China's vehicles: future trends and policy implications.

PubMed

Wu, Yingying; Zhao, Peng; Zhang, Hongwei; Wang, Yuan; Mao, Guozhu

2012-01-01

In the recent years, China's auto industry develops rapidly, thus bringing a series of burdens to society and environment. This paper uses Logistic model to simulate the future trend of China's vehicle population and finds that China's auto industry would come into high speed development time during 2020-2050. Moreover, this paper predicts vehicles' fuel consumption and exhaust emissions (CO, HC, NO(x), and PM) and quantificationally evaluates related industry policies. It can be concluded that (1) by 2020, China should develop at least 47 million medium/heavy hybrid cars to prevent the growth of vehicle fuel consumption; (2) China should take the more stringent vehicle emission standard V over 2017-2021 to hold back the growth of exhaust emissions; (3) developing new energy vehicles is the most effective measure to ease the pressure brought by auto industry.

Assessment for Fuel Consumption and Exhaust Emissions of China's Vehicles: Future Trends and Policy Implications

PubMed Central

Zhao, Peng; Zhang, Hongwei; Wang, Yuan; Mao, Guozhu

2012-01-01

In the recent years, China's auto industry develops rapidly, thus bringing a series of burdens to society and environment. This paper uses Logistic model to simulate the future trend of China's vehicle population and finds that China's auto industry would come into high speed development time during 2020–2050. Moreover, this paper predicts vehicles' fuel consumption and exhaust emissions (CO, HC, NOx, and PM) and quantificationally evaluates related industry policies. It can be concluded that (1) by 2020, China should develop at least 47 million medium/heavy hybrid cars to prevent the growth of vehicle fuel consumption; (2) China should take the more stringent vehicle emission standard V over 2017–2021 to hold back the growth of exhaust emissions; (3) developing new energy vehicles is the most effective measure to ease the pressure brought by auto industry. PMID:23365524

On-road vehicle emissions and their control in China: A review and outlook.

PubMed

Wu, Ye; Zhang, Shaojun; Hao, Jiming; Liu, Huan; Wu, Xiaomeng; Hu, Jingnan; Walsh, Michael P; Wallington, Timothy J; Zhang, K Max; Stevanovic, Svetlana

2017-01-01

The large (26-fold over the past 25years) increase in the on-road vehicle fleet in China has raised sustainability concerns regarding air pollution prevention, energy conservation, and climate change mitigation. China has established integrated emission control policies and measures since the 1990s, including implementation of emission standards for new vehicles, inspection and maintenance programs for in-use vehicles, improvement in fuel quality, promotion of sustainable transportation and alternative fuel vehicles, and traffic management programs. As a result, emissions of major air pollutants from on-road vehicles in China have peaked and are now declining despite increasing vehicle population. As might be expected, progress in addressing vehicle emissions has not always been smooth and challenges such as the lack of low sulfur fuels, frauds over production conformity and in-use inspection tests, and unreliable retrofit programs have been encountered. Considering the high emission density from vehicles in East China, enhanced vehicle, fuel and transportation strategies will be required to address vehicle emissions in China. We project the total vehicle population in China to reach 400-500 million by 2030. Serious air pollution problems in many cities of China, in particular high ambient PM 2.5 concentration, have led to pressure to accelerate the progress on vehicle emission reduction. A notable example is the draft China 6 emission standard released in May 2016, which contains more stringent emission limits than those in the Euro 6 regulations, and adds a real world emission testing protocol and a 48-h evaporation testing procedure including diurnal and hot soak emissions. A scenario (PC[1]) considered in this study suggests that increasingly stringent standards for vehicle emissions could mitigate total vehicle emissions of HC, CO, NO X and PM 2.5 in 2030 by approximately 39%, 57%, 59% and 79%, respectively, compared with 2013 levels. With additional actions to control the future light-duty passenger vehicle population growth and use, and introduce alternative fuels and new energy vehicles, the China total vehicle emissions of HC, CO, NO X and PM 2.5 in 2030 could be reduced by approximately 57%, 71%, 67% and 84%, respectively, (the PC[2] scenario) relative to 2013. This paper provides detailed policy roadmaps and technical options related to these future emission reductions for governmental stakeholders. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases: International Emissions and Projections

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA August 2011 report on global non-CO2 emissions projections (1990-2030) for emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated greenhouse gases) from more than twenty emissions sources.

CO(2), CO, and Hg emissions from the Truman Shepherd and Ruth Mullins coal fires, eastern Kentucky, USA.

PubMed

O'Keefe, Jennifer M K; Henke, Kevin R; Hower, James C; Engle, Mark A; Stracher, Glenn B; Stucker, J D; Drew, Jordan W; Staggs, Wayne D; Murray, Tiffany M; Hammond, Maxwell L; Adkins, Kenneth D; Mullins, Bailey J; Lemley, Edward W

2010-03-01

Carbon dioxide (CO(2)), carbon monoxide (CO), and mercury (Hg) emissions were quantified for two eastern Kentucky coal-seam fires, the Truman Shepherd fire in Floyd County and the Ruth Mullins fire in Perry County. This study is one of the first to estimate gas emissions from coal fires using field measurements at gas vents. The Truman Shepherd fire emissions are nearly 1400t CO(2)/yr and 16kg Hg/yr resulting from a coal combustion rate of 450-550t/yr. The sum of CO(2) emissions from seven vents at the Ruth Mullins fire is 726+/-72t/yr, suggesting that the fire is consuming about 250-280t coal/yr. Total Ruth Mullins fire CO and Hg emissions are estimated at 21+/-1.8t/yr and >840+/-170g/yr, respectively. The CO(2) emissions are environmentally significant, but low compared to coal-fired power plants; for example, 3.9x10(6)t CO(2)/yr for a 514-MW boiler in Kentucky. Using simple calculations, CO(2) and Hg emissions from coal-fires in the U.S. are estimated at 1.4x10(7)-2.9x10(8)t/yr and 0.58-11.5t/yr, respectively. This initial work indicates that coal fires may be an important source of CO(2), CO, Hg and other atmospheric constituents.

Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liao, Hong; Chen, Wei-Ting; Seinfeld, John H.

2006-01-01

A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2), respectively, with year 2100 climate and emissions.

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.; Bauer, Nico; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Chris D.; Kravitz, Ben; Muri, Helene; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention - deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>

In-lake carbon dioxide concentration patterns in four distinct phases in relation to ice cover dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denfeld, B. A.; Wallin, M.; Sahlee, E.; Sobek, S.; Kokic, J.; Chmiel, H.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.

2014-12-01

Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emission estimates from inland waters include emissions at ice melt that are based on simple assumptions rather than evidence. To account for CO2 accumulation below ice and potential emissions into the atmosphere at ice melt we combined continuous CO2 concentrations with spatial CO2 sampling in an ice-covered small boreal lake. From early ice cover to ice melt, our continuous surface water CO2 concentration measurements at 2 m depth showed a temporal development in four distinct phases: In early winter, CO2 accumulated continuously below ice, most likely due to biological in-lake and catchment inputs. Thereafter, in late winter, CO2 concentrations remained rather constant below ice, as catchment inputs were minimized and vertical mixing of hypolimnetic water was cut off. As ice melt began, surface water CO2 concentrations were rapidly changing, showing two distinct peaks, the first one reflecting horizontal mixing of CO2 from surface and catchment waters, the second one reflecting deep water mixing. We detected that 83% of the CO2 accumulated in the water during ice cover left the lake at ice melt which corresponded to one third of the total CO2 storage. Our results imply that CO2 emissions at ice melt must be accurately integrated into annual CO2 emission estimates from inland waters. If up-scaling approaches assume that CO2 accumulates linearly under ice and at ice melt all CO2 accumulated during ice cover period leaves the lake again, present estimates may overestimate CO2 emissions from small ice covered lakes. Likewise, neglecting CO2 spring outbursts will result in an underestimation of CO2 emissions from small ice covered lakes.

Hydrologic support of carbon dioxide flux revealed by whole-lake carbon budgets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stets, E.G.; Striegl, Robert G.; Aiken, G.R.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Winter, T.C.

2009-01-01

Freshwater lakes are an important component of the global carbon cycle through both organic carbon (OC) sequestration and carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission. Most lakes have a net annual loss of CO2 to the atmosphere and substantial current evidence suggests that biologic mineralization of allochthonous OC maintains this flux. Because net CO 2 flux to the atmosphere implies net mineralization of OC within the lake ecosystem, it is also commonly assumed that net annual CO2 emission indicates negative net ecosystem production (NEP). We explored the relationship between atmospheric CO2 emission and NEP in two lakes known to have contrasting hydrologie characteristics and net CO2 emission. We calculated NEP for calendar year 2004 using whole-lake OC and inorganic carbon (IC) budgets, NEPoc and NEPIC, respectively, and compared the resulting values to measured annual CO 2 flux from the lakes. In both lakes, NEPIc and NEP Ic were positive, indicating net autotrophy. Therefore CO2 emission from these lakes was apparently not supported by mineralization of allochthonous organic material. In both lakes, hydrologie CO2 inputs, as well as CO2 evolved from netcalcite precipitation, could account for the net CO2 emission. NEP calculated from diel CO2 measurements was also affected by hydrologie inputs of CO2. These results indicate that CO2 emission and positive NEP may coincide in lakes, especially in carbonate terrain, and that all potential geologic, biogeochemical, and hydrologie sources of CO2 need to be accounted for when using CO2 concentrations to infer lake NEP. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Quantifying fossil fuel CO2 from continuous measurements of APO: a novel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pickers, Penelope; Manning, Andrew C.; Forster, Grant L.; van der Laan, Sander; Wilson, Phil A.; Wenger, Angelina; Meijer, Harro A. J.; Oram, David E.; Sturges, William T.

2016-04-01

Using atmospheric measurements to accurately quantify CO2 emissions from fossil fuel sources requires the separation of biospheric and anthropogenic CO2 fluxes. The ability to quantify the fossil fuel component of CO2 (ffCO2) from atmospheric measurements enables more accurate 'top-down' verification of CO2 emissions inventories, which frequently have large uncertainty. Typically, ffCO2 is quantified (in ppm units) from discrete atmospheric measurements of Δ14CO2, combined with higher resolution atmospheric CO measurements, and with knowledge of CO:ffCO2 ratios. In the United Kingdom (UK), however, measurements of Δ14CO2 are often significantly biased by nuclear power plant influences, which limit the use of this approach. We present a novel approach for quantifying ffCO2 using measurements of APO (Atmospheric Potential Oxygen; a tracer derived from concurrent measurements of CO2 and O2) from two measurement sites in Norfolk, UK. Our approach is similar to that used for quantifying ffCO2 from CO measurements (ffCO2(CO)), whereby ffCO2(APO) = (APOmeas - APObg)/RAPO, where (APOmeas - APObg) is the APO deviation from the background, and RAPO is the APO:CO2 combustion ratio for fossil fuel. Time varying values of RAPO are calculated from the global gridded COFFEE (CO2 release and Oxygen uptake from Fossil Fuel Emission Estimate) dataset, combined with NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment) transport model footprints. We compare our ffCO2(APO) results to results obtained using the ffCO2(CO) method, using CO:CO2 fossil fuel emission ratios (RCO) from the EDGAR (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research) database. We find that the APO ffCO2 quantification method is more precise than the CO method, owing primarily to a smaller range of possible APO:CO2 fossil fuel emission ratios, compared to the CO:CO2 emission ratio range. Using a long-term dataset of atmospheric O2, CO2, CO and Δ14CO2 from Lutjewad, The Netherlands, we examine the accuracy of our ffCO2(APO) method, and assess the potential of using APO to quantify ffCO2 independently from Δ14CO2 measurements, which, as well as being unreliable in many UK regions, are very costly. Using APO to quantify ffCO2 has significant policy relevance, with the potential to provide more accurate and more precise top-down verification of fossil fuel emissions.

Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

2017-09-01

While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

The Role of Environmental Driving Factors in Historical and Projected Carbon Dynamics of Wetland Ecosystems in Alaska.

PubMed

Lyu, Zhou; Genet, Hélène; He, Yujie; Zhuang, Qianlai; McGuire, A David; Bennett, Alec; Breen, Amy; Clein, Joy; Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Johnson, Kristofer; Kurkowski, Tom; Pastick, Neal J; Rupp, T Scott; Wylie, Bruce K; Zhu, Zhiliang

2018-05-29

Wetlands are critical terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska, covering ~177,000 km 2 , an area greater than all the wetlands in the remainder of the United States. To assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, and fire regime on carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of Alaska, a modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used. Spatially explicit simulations were conducted at 1 km-resolution for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). Simulations estimated that wetland ecosystems of Alaska lost 175 Tg carbon (C) in the historical period. Ecosystem C storage in 2009 was 5556 Tg, with 89% of the C stored in soils. The estimated loss of C as CO 2 and biogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions resulted in wetlands of Alaska increasing the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. Simulations for the projection period were conducted for six climate change scenarios constructed from two climate models forced under three CO 2 emission scenarios. Ecosystem C storage averaged among climate scenarios increased 3.94 TgC/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 to 4.42 TgC/yr. These increases were driven primarily by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than losses from increased decomposition and fire. The NPP increase was driven by CO 2 fertilization (~5% per 100 ppmv increase) and by increases in air temperature (~1% per °C increase). Increases in air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in biogenic CH 4 emissions among the simulations (~15% per °C increase). Ecosystem CO 2 sequestration offset the increase in CH 4 emissions during the 21 st century to decrease the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. However, beyond 2100, we expect that this forcing will ultimately increase as wetland ecosystems transition from being a sink to a source of atmospheric CO 2 because of (1) decreasing sensitivity of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO 2 , (2) increasing availability of soil C for decomposition as permafrost thaws, and (3) continued positive sensitivity of biogenic CH 4 emissions to increases in soil temperature. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Measuring H2O and CO2 Emissions in the Mud Volcano region of Yellowstone using Open Path FTIR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moyer, D. K.; Sealing, C. R.; Carn, S. A.; Vanderkluysen, L.

2017-12-01

Magma degassing is an important factor in many aspects of monitoring active volcanic zones and mitigating associated hazards. The monitoring of these emissions in concentration, flux, and species ratios is important for detecting signs of unrest as well as understanding the natural cycle and budget of volatile species. However, standard gas measurement methods suffer from either low temporal resolution (e.g., direct sampling of fumaroles) or are limited to measuring a small range of species (e.g., MiniDOAS, MultiGAS). In order to establish a carbon budget of active gas sources at a volcano with a dynamic hydrothermal system, we carried out a survey of mud pots and fumaroles at Yellowstone National Park using Open-Path Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy, or OP-FTIR, which allows for a temporal resolution as low as one measurement every 10 seconds. We placed an active infrared (IR) source behind the target gas plume and identified gas species from the presence of their absorption feature in measured spectra in the 2.5 to 25 µm range. From these, we derived pathlength concentrations for a wide range of gases, including: water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane. During our September 2016 campaign in the Mud Volcano thermal area, we measured CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm in emissions from the Churning Cauldron acid-sulfate mud pot, with an H2O/CO2 ratio of 8; at Sulphur Cauldron and One Hundred Springs Plain, CO2 concentrations reached 200 ppm above background atmospheric values. We derived a CO2 flux of 8.15 T/d, 0.43 T/d and .00025 T/d, respectively, at these three acid-sulfate sources, within range of gas channeling-based estimates from the late 1990s. Previous accumulation chamber studies estimate the CO2 soil diffuse degassing in the Mud Volcano thermal region at 283.15 T/d, indicating that mud pots are minor contributors of CO2 emissions in this area, representing 3% of diffuse emissions. Due to the high acquisition rate and the abundance of water droplets in the plume, spectra were too noisy to reliably detect methane at these locations. Future work will focus on the measurement of trace gases at these same locations by increasing the acquisition time.

On Estimation of Contamination from Hydrogen Cyanide in Carbon Monoxide Line-intensity Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Dongwoo T.; Li, Tony Y.; Viero, Marco P.; Church, Sarah E.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2017-09-01

Line-intensity mapping surveys probe large-scale structure through spatial variations in molecular line emission from a population of unresolved cosmological sources. Future such surveys of carbon monoxide line emission, specifically the CO(1-0) line, face potential contamination from a disjointed population of sources emitting in a hydrogen cyanide emission line, HCN(1-0). This paper explores the potential range of the strength of HCN emission and its effect on the CO auto power spectrum, using simulations with an empirical model of the CO/HCN-halo connection. We find that effects on the observed CO power spectrum depend on modeling assumptions but are very small for our fiducial model, which is based on current understanding of the galaxy-halo connection. Given the fiducial model, we expect the bias in overall CO detection significance due to HCN to be less than 1%.

On Estimation of Contamination from Hydrogen Cyanide in Carbon Monoxide Line-intensity Mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chung, Dongwoo T.; Li, Tony Y.; Viero, Marco P.

Line-intensity mapping surveys probe large-scale structure through spatial variations in molecular line emission from a population of unresolved cosmological sources. Future such surveys of carbon monoxide line emission, specifically the CO(1-0) line, face potential contamination from a disjointed population of sources emitting in a hydrogen cyanide emission line, HCN(1-0). This paper explores the potential range of the strength of HCN emission and its effect on the CO auto power spectrum, using simulations with an empirical model of the CO/HCN–halo connection. We find that effects on the observed CO power spectrum depend on modeling assumptions but are very small for ourmore » fiducial model, which is based on current understanding of the galaxy–halo connection. Given the fiducial model, we expect the bias in overall CO detection significance due to HCN to be less than 1%.« less

On Estimation of Contamination from Hydrogen Cyanide in Carbon Monoxide Line-intensity Mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chung, Dongwoo T.; Li, Tony Y.; Viero, Marco P.

Here, line-intensity mapping surveys probe large-scale structure through spatial variations in molecular line emission from a population of unresolved cosmological sources. Future such surveys of carbon monoxide line emission, specifically the CO(1-0) line, face potential contamination from a disjointed population of sources emitting in a hydrogen cyanide emission line, HCN(1-0). This paper explores the potential range of the strength of HCN emission and its effect on the CO auto power spectrum, using simulations with an empirical model of the CO/HCN–halo connection. We find that effects on the observed CO power spectrum depend on modeling assumptions but are very small formore » our fiducial model, which is based on current understanding of the galaxy–halo connection. Given the fiducial model, we expect the bias in overall CO detection significance due to HCN to be less than 1%.« less

On Estimation of Contamination from Hydrogen Cyanide in Carbon Monoxide Line-intensity Mapping

DOE PAGES

Chung, Dongwoo T.; Li, Tony Y.; Viero, Marco P.; ...

2017-08-31

Here, line-intensity mapping surveys probe large-scale structure through spatial variations in molecular line emission from a population of unresolved cosmological sources. Future such surveys of carbon monoxide line emission, specifically the CO(1-0) line, face potential contamination from a disjointed population of sources emitting in a hydrogen cyanide emission line, HCN(1-0). This paper explores the potential range of the strength of HCN emission and its effect on the CO auto power spectrum, using simulations with an empirical model of the CO/HCN–halo connection. We find that effects on the observed CO power spectrum depend on modeling assumptions but are very small formore » our fiducial model, which is based on current understanding of the galaxy–halo connection. Given the fiducial model, we expect the bias in overall CO detection significance due to HCN to be less than 1%.« less

Quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions at the urban scale: Results from the Indianapolis Flux Project (INFLUX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnbull, J. C.; Cambaliza, M. L.; Sweeney, C.; Karion, A.; Newberger, T.; Tans, P. P.; Lehman, S.; Davis, K. J.; Miles, N. L.; Richardson, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Shepson, P.; Gurney, K. R.; Song, Y.; Razlivanov, I. N.

2012-12-01

Emissions of fossil fuel CO2 (CO2ff) from anthropogenic sources are the primary driver of observed increases in the atmospheric CO2 burden, and hence global warming. Quantification of the magnitude of fossil fuel CO2 emissions is vital to improving our understanding of the global and regional carbon cycle, and independent evaluation of reported emissions is essential to the success of any emission reduction efforts. The urban scale is of particular interest, because ~75% CO2ff is emitted from urban regions, and cities are leading the way in attempts to reduce emissions. Measurements of 14CO2 can be used to determine CO2ff, yet existing 14C measurement techniques require laborious laboratory analysis and measurements are often insufficient for inferring an urban emission flux. This presentation will focus on how 14CO2 measurements can be combined with those of more easily measured ancillary tracers to obtain high resolution CO2ff mixing ratio estimates and then infer the emission flux. A pilot study over Sacramento, California showed strong correlations between CO2ff and carbon monoxide (CO) and demonstrated an ability to quantify the urban flux, albeit with large uncertainties. The Indianapolis Flux Project (INFLUX) aims to develop and assess methods to quantify urban greenhouse gas emissions. Indianapolis was chosen as an ideal test case because it has relatively straightforward meteorology; a contained, isolated, urban region; and substantial and well-known fossil fuel CO2 emissions. INFLUX incorporates atmospheric measurements of a suite of gases and isotopes including 14C from light aircraft and from a network of existing tall towers surrounding the Indianapolis urban area. The recently added CO2ff content is calculated from measurements of 14C in CO2, and then convolved with atmospheric transport models and ancillary data to estimate the urban CO2ff emission flux. Significant innovations in sample collection include: collection of hourly averaged samples to remove short term atmospheric variability; and direct measurement of the background signal from towers immediately upwind of the urban area and from the boundary layer. We find that CO2ff and other anthropogenic trace gases are consistently enhanced at a tower site downwind of the city. Measurements made directly over or very close to the urban area show only weak correlations between CO2ff and trace gases associated with combustion, likely because the urban plume is not yet well mixed. Total CO2 is also consistently enhanced in the downwind samples, even in summer. In winter, total CO2 enhancement is slightly higher than the fossil fuel CO2 enhancement, in agreement with Indiana's requirement for 10% bioethanol use in gasoline. This result implies that the enhancement in total CO2 can be used to infer CO2ff emissions for Indianapolis during winter. We therefore use the high resolution in situ total CO2 measurements in a simple mass balance model to estimate the urban CO2ff emissions. An initial comparison shows a ~20% difference between the top-down and bottom-up methods.

Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero, C.; García-Olivares, A.; Pelegrí, J. L.

2014-12-01

A simple relaxation-type model (García-Olivares and Herrero, 2013) based on an optimization of Paillard and Parrenin (2004), has been used to predict the future evolution of atmospheric CO2, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr, with and without the atmospheric CO2 perturbation caused by anthropogenic emissions.The initial atmospheric CO2 condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources, with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. This analysis sets a peak of emissions on year 2037 AD and a maximum CO2 concentration of 519 ppmv in 2300 AD, leading to 20 kyr of abnormally high greenhouse effect. Weathering compensation and emission of methane from clathrates have also been considered as they have relevant effects on the dynamics of the system after the perturbation.The anthropogenic CO2 pulse clearly perturbs the natural cycle for all model variables during the forthcoming 300 kyr. The present interglacial will be lengthen by 25 kyr, as the anthropogenic perturbation will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf and a consequent perturbation of the deep ocean stratification, so the relative maximum of boreal insolation 65 kyr AP will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation. The next glacial maximum will take place about 105 kyr AP and the following interglacial will be delayed forward in time by 44 kyr in relation to unperturbed conditions.This study endorses the idea that relaxation type coupled models, despite their simple structure, may retain the principal Earth's climatic interactions, being capable of accounting for the natural evolution of an externally imposed atmospheric CO2 pulse. - Garcia-Olivares, A. and Herrero, C. (2013) "Simulation of glacial-interglacial cycles by simple relaxation models: consistency with observational results" Clim. Dyn., 41:1307-1331- Paillard, D. and Parrenin, F. (2004) "The Antarctic ice sheet and the triggering of deglaciations" Earth. Planet. Sci. Lett., 227, 263 - 271

40 CFR 75.13 - Specific provisions for monitoring CO 2 emissions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... the general operating requirements in § 75.10 for a CO2 continuous emission monitoring system and flow... specified in §§ 75.11(a) through (e) or § 75.16, except that the phrase “CO2 continuous emission monitoring system” shall apply rather than “SO2 continuous emission monitoring system,” the phrase “CO2...

40 CFR 75.13 - Specific provisions for monitoring CO 2 emissions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... the general operating requirements in § 75.10 for a CO2 continuous emission monitoring system and flow... specified in §§ 75.11(a) through (e) or § 75.16, except that the phrase “CO2 continuous emission monitoring system” shall apply rather than “SO2 continuous emission monitoring system,” the phrase “CO2...

Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, V. K.; Scinocca, J. F.; Boer, G. J.; Christian, J. R.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Kharin, V. V.; Lee, W. G.; Merryfield, W. J.

2011-03-01

The response of the second-generation Canadian earth system model (CanESM2) to historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) natural and anthropogenic forcing is assessed using the newly-developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. Allowable emissions required to achieve the future atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, are reported for the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. For the historical 1850-2005 period, cumulative land plus ocean carbon uptake and, consequently, cumulative diagnosed emissions compare well with observation-based estimates. The simulated historical carbon uptake is somewhat weaker for the ocean and stronger for the land relative to their observation-based estimates. The simulated historical warming of 0.9°C compares well with the observation-based estimate of 0.76 ± 0.19°C. The RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively yield warmings of 1.4, 2.3, and 4.9°C and cumulative diagnosed fossil fuel emissions of 182, 643 and 1617 Pg C over the 2006-2100 period. The simulated warming of 2.3°C over the 1850-2100 period in the RCP 2.6 scenario, with the lowest concentration of GHGs, is slightly larger than the 2°C warming target set to avoid dangerous climate change by the 2009 UN Copenhagen Accord. The results of this study suggest that limiting warming to roughly 2°C by the end of this century is unlikely since it requires an immediate ramp down of emissions followed by ongoing carbon sequestration in the second half of this century.

Recent trends in global emissions of hydrochlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons: reflecting on the 2007 adjustments to the Montreal Protocol.

PubMed

Montzka, S A; McFarland, M; Andersen, S O; Miller, B R; Fahey, D W; Hall, B D; Hu, L; Siso, C; Elkins, J W

2015-05-14

Global-scale atmospheric measurements are used to investigate the effectiveness of recent adjustments to production and consumption controls on hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) and to assess recent projections of large increases in hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and emission. The results show that aggregate global HCFC emissions did not increase appreciably during 2007-2012 and suggest that the 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol played a role in limiting HCFC emissions well in advance of the 2013 cap on global production. HCFC emissions varied between 27 and 29 kt CFC-11-equivalent (eq)/y or 0.76 and 0.79 GtCO2-eq/y during this period. Despite slower than projected increases in aggregate HCFC emissions since 2007, total emissions of HFCs used as substitutes for HCFCs and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have not increased more rapidly than rates projected [Velders, G. J. M.; Fahey, D. W.; Daniel, J. S.; McFarland, M.; Andersen, S. O. The Large Contribution of Projected HFC Emissions to Future Climate Forcing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2009, 106, 10949-10954] for 2007-2012. HFC global emission magnitudes related to this substitution totaled 0.51 (-0.03, +0.04) GtCO2-eq/y in 2012, a magnitude about two times larger than emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for these HFCs. Assuming accurate reporting to the UNFCCC, the results imply that developing countries (non-Annex I Parties) not reporting to the UNFCCC now account for nearly 50% of global HFC emissions used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Global HFC emissions (as CO2-eq) from ODS substitution can be attributed approximately equally to mobile air conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and the sum of all other applications.

Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, Mark Z.; Streets, David G.

2009-04-01

This study examines the effects of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, and the resulting feedback to natural emissions and air quality. Speciated sector- and region-specific 2030 emission factors were developed to produce gas and particle emission inventories that followed Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 emission trajectories. Current and future climate model simulations were run, in which anthropogenic emission changes affected climate, which fed back to natural emissions from lightning (NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, H2O2, HO2, CO), soils (dust, bacteria, NO, N2O, H2, CH4, H2S, DMS, OCS, CS2), the ocean (bacteria, sea spray, DMS, N2O, H2, CH4), vegetation (pollen, spores, isoprene, monoterpenes, methanol, other VOCs), and photosynthesis/respiration. New methods were derived to calculate lightning flash rates as a function of size-resolved collisions and other physical principles and pollen, spore, and bacteria emissions. Although the B1 scenario was "cleaner" than the A1B scenario, global warming increased more in the B1 scenario because much A1B warming was masked by additional reflective aerosol particles. Thus neither scenario is entirely beneficial from a climate and health perspective, and the best control measure is to reduce warming gases and warming/cooling particles together. Lightning emissions declined by ˜3% in the B1 scenario and ˜12% in the A1B scenario as the number of ice crystals, thus charge-separating bounceoffs, decreased. Net primary production increased by ˜2% in both scenarios. Emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes increased by ˜1% in the A1B scenario and 4-5% in the B1 scenario. Near-surface ozone increased by ˜14% in the A1B scenario and ˜4% in the B1 scenario, reducing ambient isoprene in the latter case. Gases from soils increased in both scenarios due to higher temperatures. Near-surface PM2.5 mass increased by ˜2% in the A1B scenario and decreased by ˜2% in the B1 scenario. The resulting 1.4% higher aerosol optical depths (AODs) in the A1B scenario decreased ocean wind speeds and thus ocean sea spray and bacteria emissions; ˜5% lower AODs in the B1 scenario had the opposite effect.

Global terrestrial biogeochemistry: Perturbations, interactions, and time scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Braswell, B.H. Jr.

1996-12-01

Global biogeochemical processes are being perturbed by human activity, principally that which is associated with industrial activity and expansion of urban and agricultural complexes. Perturbations have manifested themselves at least since the beginning of the 19th Century, and include emissions of CO{sub 2} and other pollutants from fossil fuel combustion, agricultural emissions of reactive nitrogen, and direct disruption of ecosystem function through land conversion. These perturbations yield local impacts, but there are also global consequences that are the sum of local-scale influences. Several approaches to understanding the global-scale implications of chemical perturbations to the Earth system are discussed. The lifetimemore » of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is an important concept for understanding the current and future commitment to an altered atmospheric heat budget. The importance of the terrestrial biogeochemistry relative to the lifetime of excess CO{sub 2} is demonstrated using dynamic, aggregated models of the global carbon cycle.« less

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne.

PubMed

Allen, Myles R; Frame, David J; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai

2009-04-30

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO(2)), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5-95% confidence interval of 1.3-3.9 degrees C.

A {sup 13}CO Detection in a Brightest Cluster Galaxy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vantyghem, A. N.; McNamara, B. R.; Hogan, M. T.

We present ALMA Cycle 4 observations of CO(1-0), CO(3-2), and {sup 13}CO(3-2) line emission in the brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) of RXJ0821+0752. This is one of the first detections of {sup 13}CO line emission in a galaxy cluster. Half of the CO(3-2) line emission originates from two clumps of molecular gas that are spatially offset from the galactic center. These clumps are surrounded by diffuse emission that extends 8 kpc in length. The detected {sup 13}CO emission is confined entirely to the two bright clumps, with any emission outside of this region lying below our detection threshold. Two distinct velocitymore » components with similar integrated fluxes are detected in the {sup 12}CO spectra. The narrower component (60 km s{sup −1} FWHM) is consistent in both velocity centroid and linewidth with {sup 13}CO(3-2) emission, while the broader (130–160 km s{sup −1}), slightly blueshifted wing has no associated {sup 13}CO(3-2) emission. A simple local thermodynamic model indicates that the {sup 13}CO emission traces 2.1 × 10{sup 9} M {sub ⊙} of molecular gas. Isolating the {sup 12}CO velocity component that accompanies the {sup 13}CO emission yields a CO-to-H{sub 2} conversion factor of α {sub CO} = 2.3 M {sub ⊙} (K km s{sup −1}){sup −1}, which is a factor of two lower than the Galactic value. Adopting the Galactic CO-to-H{sub 2} conversion factor in BCGs may therefore overestimate their molecular gas masses by a factor of two. This is within the object-to-object scatter from extragalactic sources, so calibrations in a larger sample of clusters are necessary in order to confirm a sub-Galactic conversion factor.« less

CO2 emissions from German drinking water reservoirs.

PubMed

Saidi, Helmi; Koschorreck, Matthias

2017-03-01

Globally, reservoirs are a significant source of atmospheric CO 2 . However, precise quantification of greenhouse gas emissions from drinking water reservoirs on the regional or national scale is still challenging. We calculated CO 2 fluxes for 39 German drinking water reservoirs during a period of 22years (1991-2013) using routine monitoring data in order to quantify total emission of CO 2 from drinking water reservoirs in Germany and to identify major drivers. All reservoirs were a net CO 2 source with a median flux of 167gCm -2 y -1 , which makes gaseous emissions a relevant process for the carbon budget of each reservoir. Fluxes varied seasonally with median fluxes of 13, 48, and 201gCm -2 y -1 in spring, summer, and autumn respectively. Differences between reservoirs appeared to be primarily caused by the concentration of CO 2 in the surface water rather than by the physical gas transfer coefficient. Consideration of short term fluctuations of the gas transfer coefficient due to varying wind speed had only a minor effect on the annual budgets. High CO 2 emissions only occurred in reservoirs with pH<7 and total alkalinity <0.2mEql -1 . Annual CO 2 emissions correlated exponentially with pH but not with dissolved organic carbon (DOC). There was significant correlation between land use in the catchment and CO 2 emissions. In total, German drinking water reservoirs emit 44000t of CO 2 annually, which makes them a negligible CO 2 source (<0.005% of national CO 2 emissions) in Germany. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isaksen, Ivar S.A.; Gauss, Michael; Myhre, Gunnar; Walter Anthony, Katey M.; Ruppel, Carolyn

2011-01-01

The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future methane releases calls for improved understanding of the interaction of a changing climate with processes in the Arctic and chemical feedbacks in the atmosphere. Here we apply a “state of the art” atmospheric chemistry transport model to show that large emissions of CH4 would likely have an unexpectedly large impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on radiative forcing (RF). The indirect contribution to RF of additional methane emission is particularly important. It is shown that if global methane emissions were to increase by factors of 2.5 and 5.2 above current emissions, the indirect contributions to RF would be about 250% and 400%, respectively, of the RF that can be attributed to directly emitted methane alone. Assuming several hypothetical scenarios of CH4 release associated with permafrost thaw, shallow marine hydrate degassing, and submarine landslides, we find a strong positive feedback on RF through atmospheric chemistry. In particular, the impact of CH4 is enhanced through increase of its lifetime, and of atmospheric abundances of ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and CO2 as a result of atmospheric chemical processes. Despite uncertainties in emission scenarios, our results provide a better understanding of the feedbacks in the atmospheric chemistry that would amplify climate warming.

Assessment of the Contribution of Poultry and Pig Production to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Korea Over the Last 10 Years (2005 through 2014).

PubMed

Boontiam, Waewaree; Shin, Yongjin; Choi, Hong Lim; Kumari, Priyanka

2016-12-01

The goal of this study was to estimate the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), namely methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from poultry and pig production in South Korea over the last 10 years (2005 through 2014). The calculations of GHG emissions were based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. Over the study period, the CH 4 emission from manure management decreased in layer chickens, nursery to finishing pigs and gestating to lactating sows, but there was a gradual increase in CH 4 emission from broiler chickens and male breeding pigs. Both sows and nursery to finishing pigs were associated with greater emissions from enteric fermentation than the boars, especially in 2009. Layer chickens produced lower direct and indirect N 2 O emissions from 2009 to 2014, whereas the average direct and indirect N 2 O emissions from manure management for broiler chickens were 12.48 and 4.93 Gg CO 2 -eq/yr, respectively. Annual direct and indirect N 2 O emissions for broiler chickens tended to decrease in 2014. Average CO 2 emission from direct on-farm energy uses for broiler and layer chickens were 46.62 and 136.56 Gg CO 2 -eq/yr, respectively. For pig sectors, the N 2 O emission from direct and indirect sources gradually increased, but they decreased for breeding pigs. Carbon dioxide emission from direct on-farm energy uses reached a maximum of 53.93 Gg CO 2 -eq/yr in 2009, but this total gradually declined in 2010 and 2011. For boars, the greatest CO 2 emission occurred in 2012 and was 9.44 Gg CO 2 -eq/yr. Indirect N 2 O emission was the largest component of GHG emissions in broilers. In layer chickens, the largest contributing factor to GHG emissions was CO 2 from direct on-farm energy uses. For pig production, the largest component of GHG emissions was CH 4 from manure management, followed by CO 2 emission from direct on-farm energy use and CH 4 enteric fermentation emission, which accounted for 8.47, 2.85, and 2.82 Gg-CO 2 /yr, respectively. The greatest GHG emission intensity occurred in female breeding sows relative to boars. Overall, it is an important issue for the poultry and pig industry of South Korea to reduce GHG emissions with the effective approaches for the sustainability of agricultural practices.

Assessment of the Contribution of Poultry and Pig Production to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Korea Over the Last 10 Years (2005 through 2014)

PubMed Central

Boontiam, Waewaree; Shin, Yongjin; Choi, Hong Lim; Kumari, Priyanka

2016-01-01

The goal of this study was to estimate the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), namely methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2) from poultry and pig production in South Korea over the last 10 years (2005 through 2014). The calculations of GHG emissions were based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. Over the study period, the CH4 emission from manure management decreased in layer chickens, nursery to finishing pigs and gestating to lactating sows, but there was a gradual increase in CH4 emission from broiler chickens and male breeding pigs. Both sows and nursery to finishing pigs were associated with greater emissions from enteric fermentation than the boars, especially in 2009. Layer chickens produced lower direct and indirect N2O emissions from 2009 to 2014, whereas the average direct and indirect N2O emissions from manure management for broiler chickens were 12.48 and 4.93 Gg CO2-eq/yr, respectively. Annual direct and indirect N2O emissions for broiler chickens tended to decrease in 2014. Average CO2 emission from direct on-farm energy uses for broiler and layer chickens were 46.62 and 136.56 Gg CO2-eq/yr, respectively. For pig sectors, the N2O emission from direct and indirect sources gradually increased, but they decreased for breeding pigs. Carbon dioxide emission from direct on-farm energy uses reached a maximum of 53.93 Gg CO2-eq/yr in 2009, but this total gradually declined in 2010 and 2011. For boars, the greatest CO2 emission occurred in 2012 and was 9.44 Gg CO2-eq/yr. Indirect N2O emission was the largest component of GHG emissions in broilers. In layer chickens, the largest contributing factor to GHG emissions was CO2 from direct on-farm energy uses. For pig production, the largest component of GHG emissions was CH4 from manure management, followed by CO2 emission from direct on-farm energy use and CH4 enteric fermentation emission, which accounted for 8.47, 2.85, and 2.82 Gg-CO2/yr, respectively. The greatest GHG emission intensity occurred in female breeding sows relative to boars. Overall, it is an important issue for the poultry and pig industry of South Korea to reduce GHG emissions with the effective approaches for the sustainability of agricultural practices. PMID:26954125

Rethinking wedges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Steven J.; Cao, Long; Caldeira, Ken; Hoffert, Martin I.

2013-03-01

Abstract Stabilizing CO2 emissions at current levels for fifty years is not consistent with either an atmospheric CO2 concentration below 500 ppm or global temperature increases below 2 °C. Accepting these targets, solving the climate problem requires that emissions peak and decline in the next few decades, and ultimately fall to near zero. Phasing out emissions over 50 years could be achieved by deploying on the order of 19 'wedges', each of which ramps up linearly over a period of 50 years to ultimately avoid 1 GtC y-1 of CO2 emissions. But this level of mitigation will require affordable carbon-free energy systems to be deployed at the scale of tens of terawatts. Any hope for such fundamental and disruptive transformation of the global energy system depends upon coordinated efforts to innovate, plan, and deploy new transportation and energy systems that can provide affordable energy at this scale without emitting CO2 to the atmosphere. 1. Introduction In 2004, Pacala and Socolow published a study in Science arguing that '[h]umanity can solve the carbon and climate problem in the first half of this century simply by scaling up what we already know how to do' [1]. Specifically, they presented 15 options for 'stabilization wedges' that would grow linearly from zero to 1 Gt of carbon emissions avoided per year (GtC y-1 1 Gt = 1012 kg) over 50 years. The solution to the carbon and climate problem, they asserted, was 'to deploy the technologies and/or lifestyle changes necessary to fill all seven wedges of the stabilization triangle'. They claimed this would offset the growth of emissions and put us on a trajectory to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at 500 ppm if emissions decreased sharply in the second half of the 21st century. The wedge concept has proven popular as an analytical tool for considering the potential of different technologies to reduce CO2 emissions. In the years since the paper was published, it has been cited more than 400 times, and stabilization wedges have become a ubiquitous unit in assessing different strategies to mitigate climate change (e.g. [2-5]). But the real and lasting potency of the wedge concept was in dividing the daunting problem of climate change into substantial but tractable portions of mitigation: Pacala and Socolow gave us a way to believe that the energy-carbon-climate problem was manageable. An unfortunate consequence of their paper, however, was to make the solution seem easy (see, e.g. [6, 7]). And in the meantime, the problem has grown. Since 2004, annual emissions have increased and their growth rate has accelerated, so that more than seven wedges would now be necessary to stabilize emissions and—more importantly—stabilizing emissions at current levels for 50 years does not appear compatible with Pacala and Socolow's target of an atmospheric CO2 concentration below 500 ppm nor the international community's goal of limiting the increase in global mean temperature to 2 °C more than the pre-industrial era. Here, we aim to revitalize the wedge concept by redefining what it means to 'solve the carbon and climate problem for the next 50 years'. This redefinition makes clear both the scale and urgency of innovating and deploying carbon-emissions-free energy technologies. 2. Solving the climate problem Stabilizing global climate requires decreasing CO2 emissions to near zero [8-11]. If emissions were to stop completely, global temperatures would quickly stabilize and decrease gradually over time [8, 12, 13]. But socioeconomic demands and dependence on fossil-fuel energy effectively commit us to many billions of tons of CO2 emissions [14], and at the timescale of centuries, each CO2 emission to the atmosphere contributes another increment to global warming: peak warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions [15, 16]. Cumulative emissions, in turn, integrate all past emissions as well as those occurring during three distinct phases of mitigation: (1) slowing growth of emissions, (2) stopping growth of emissions, and (3) reducing emissions. Although they noted that stabilizing the climate would require emissions to 'eventually drop to zero', Pacala and Socolow nonetheless defined 'solv[ing] the carbon and climate problem over the next half-century' as merely stopping the growth of emissions (phases 1 and 2). Further reductions (phase 3), they said, could wait 50 years if the level of emissions were held constant in the meantime. But growth of emissions has not stopped (phase 2) or even slowed (phase 1), it has accelerated [17, 18]. In 2010, annual CO2 emissions crested 9 GtC. At this level, holding emissions constant for 50 years (phase 2) is unlikely to be sufficient to avoid the benchmark targets of 500 ppm or 2 °C. To support this assertion, we performed ensemble simulations using the UK Met Office coupled climate/carbon cycle model, HadCM3L (see supplementary material available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/011001/mmedia), to project changes in atmospheric CO2 and global mean temperature in response to emissions scenarios in which seven wedges (W7) and nine wedges (W9) were immediately subtracted from the A2 marker scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) [19] beginning in 2010 (figure 1). In the first half of this century, the A2 scenario is near the center of the plume of variation of the SRES emissions scenarios [20]. Indeed, actual annual emissions have exceeded A2 projections for more than a decade [21, 22]. During this period, strong growth of global emissions has been driven by the rapid, carbon-intensive growth of emerging economies [23, 24], which has continued despite the global financial crisis of 2008-9 [18]. For these reasons we believe that, among the SRES scenarios, A2 represents a reasonable 'business-as-usual' scenario. However, if emissions were to suddenly decline and follow a lower emissions business-as-usual trajectory such as B2, fewer wedges would be necessary to stabilize emissions, and deployment of seven wedges would reduce annual emissions to 4.5 GtC in 2060. Thus, mitigation effort (wedges) required to stabilize emissions is dependent on the choice of baseline scenario, but a half-century of emissions at the current level will have the same effect on atmospheric CO2 and the climate regardless of what scenario is chosen. Figure 1 Figure 1. Modeled effects of deploying wedges. (A) Future CO2 emissions under SRES A2 marker scenario and the A2 scenario reduced by deployment of 7 wedges (W7). The response of (B) atmospheric CO2 and (C) global mean surface temperature under W7. (D) Future CO2 emissions under SRES A2 marker scenario and stabilized at 2010 levels (reduced by approximately 9 wedges relative to the A2 scenario) (W9). The response of (E) atmospheric CO2 and (F) global mean surface temperature under W9. Error bars in ((C) and (F)) are 2-sigma. Dashed lines in (A), (B), (D) and (E) show emissions and concentrations of representative concentration pathways RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 [38]. Mean temperatures reflect warming relative to the pre-industrial era. We also note that the climate model we used, HadCM3L, has a strong positive climate/carbon cycle feedback mainly associated with the dieback of the Amazon rainforest [25]. As a result, HadCM3L projected the highest level of atmospheric CO2 concentrations among eleven Earth system models that were driven by a certain CO2 emission scenario [26]. However, this strong positive climate/carbon cycle feedback operates in simulations of both the A2 and wedge (W7 and W9) scenarios. Therefore, the relative effect of wedges, as opposed to the absolute values of projected atmospheric CO2 and temperature, is expected to be less dependent on the strength of climate/carbon cycle feedback. Atmospheric CO2 concentration and mean surface temperatures continue to rise under the modeled W7 scenario (figures 1(A)-(C)). Deploying 7 wedges does not alter projected mean surface temperatures by a statistically significant increment until 2046 (α = 0.05 level), at which time the predicted difference between mean temperatures in the A2 and W7 scenarios is 0.14 ± 0.08 °C. In 2060, the difference in projected mean temperatures under the two scenarios is 0.47 ± 0.07 °C. Further, under the W7 scenario, our results indicate atmospheric CO2 levels will exceed 500 ppm in 2042 (reaching 567 ± 1 ppm in 2060) (figure 1(B)), and 2 °C of warming in 2052 (figure 1(C)). Immediately stabilizing global emissions at 2010 levels (~10.0 GtCy-1), which would require approximately nine wedges (thus W9) under the A2 scenario, has a similarly modest effect on global mean surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2, with warming of 1.92 ± 0.4 °C in 2060 and atmospheric CO2 exceeding 500 ppm by 2049 (figures 1(D)-(F)). Our projections therefore indicate that holding emissions constant at current levels for the next half-century would cause substantial warming, approaching or surpassing current benchmarks [27-29] even before any reduction of emissions (phase 3) begins. Insofar as current climate targets accurately reflect the social acceptance of climate change impacts, then, solving the carbon and climate problem means not just stabilizing but sharply reducing CO2 emissions over the next 50 years. We are not alone in drawing this conclusion (see, e.g. [30-32]). For example, at least some integrated assessment models have now found that the emissions reductions required to prevent atmospheric CO2 concentration from exceeding 450 ppm are no longer either physically or economically feasible [11, 33, 34], and that preventing CO2 concentration from exceeding 550 ppm will also be difficult if participation of key countries such as China and Russia is delayed [11]. Most model scenarios that allow CO2 concentrations to stabilize at 450 ppm entail negative carbon emissions, for example by capturing and storing emissions from bioenergy [11]. A different body of literature has concluded that cumulative emissions of 1 trillion tons of carbon (i.e. 1000 GtC) are likely to result in warming of 2 °C [15, 35]. Whereas Pacala and Socolow's original proposal implied roughly 944 GtC of cumulative emissions (305 GtC prior to 2004, 389 GtC between 2004 and 2054, and another 250 GtC between 2054 and 2104 if emissions decrease at 2% y-1 as they suggested), stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels for 50 y and decreasing at 2% y-1 afterward increases the cumulative total to 1180 GtC of emissions (356 GtC prior to 2010, 491 GtC between 2010 and 2060, and 336 GtC between 2060 and 2110 at which time annual emissions remain at nearly 3.2 GtC y-1). Lastly, we note that even though emissions in the lowest of the new representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6) peak in 2020 at just 10.3 GtC y-1 and decline sharply to only 2.0 GtC y-1 in 2060 (figure 2), the concentration of atmospheric CO2 nonetheless reaches 443 ppm in 2050 [36-38]. In contrast, emissions of the intermediate pathway RCP4.5 rise modestly to 11.5 GtC y-1 in 2040 before declining to 9.6 GtC y-1 in 2060, which leads to atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 509 ppm in 2060 on the way to 540 ppm in 2100. These pathways, along with the integrated assessment models and cumulative emissions simulations all support our finding that 50 y of current emissions is not a solution to climate change. Figure 2 Figure 2. Idealization of future CO2 emissions under the business-as-usual SRES A2 marker scenario. Future emissions are divided into hidden (sometimes called 'virtual') wedges (brown) of emissions avoided by expected decreases in the carbon intensity of GDP by ~1% per year, stabilization wedges (green) of emissions avoided through mitigation efforts that hold emissions constant at 9.8 GtC y-1 beginning in 2010, phase-out wedges (purple) of emissions avoided through complete transition of technologies and practices that emit CO2 to the atmosphere to ones that do not, and allowed emissions (blue). Wedges expand linearly from 0 to 1 GtC y-1 from 2010 to 2060. The total avoided emissions per wedge is 25 GtC, such that altogether the hidden, stabilization and phase-out wedges represent 775 GtC of cumulative emissions. Unless current climate targets are sacrificed, solving the climate problem requires significantly reducing emissions over the next 50 years. Just how significant those reductions need to be will depend on a global trade-off between the damages imposed by climatic changes and the costs of avoiding them. But given substantial uncertainties associated with climate model projections (e.g., climate sensitivity), the arbitrary nature of targets like 500 ppm and 2 °C, and the permanence implied by the term 'solution', the ultimate solution to the climate problem is a complete phase-out of carbon emissions. 3. Counting wedges But significantly reducing current emissions while also sustaining historical growth rates of the global economy is likely to require many more than seven wedges. Gross world product (GWP) projections embedded in the A2 scenario imply as many as 31 wedges would be required to completely phase-out emissions, grouped into three distinct groups: (1) 12 'hidden' wedges that represent the continued decarbonization of our energy system at historical rates (i.e. decreases in the carbon intensity of the global economy that are assumed to regardless of any additional efforts to mitigate emissions) [9, 39]. (2) 9 'stabilization' wedges that represent additional efforts to mitigate emissions above and beyond the technological progress already assumed by the scenario [1]. And (3), 10 'phase-out' wedges that represent the complete transition from energy infrastructure and land-use practices that emit CO2 (on net) to the atmosphere to infrastructure and practices which do not (figure 2) [9, 14, 40]. There is good reason to be concerned that at least some number of the hidden wedges will not come to be—that the rates of decarbonization assumed by almost all scenarios of future emissions may underestimate the extent to which rising energy demand will be met by increased use of coal and unconventional fossil fuels [24, 41]. Moreover, there is no way to know whether a wedge created by deploying carbon-free energy technology represents additional mitigation effort (i.e. a stabilization wedge) or something that would have happened in the course of normal technological progress (i.e. a hidden wedge). Thus, in assessing the efficacy of efforts to reduce emissions, it may be more useful to tabulate wedges based only on the current carbon intensity of global energy and food production and projected demand for energy and food, without reference to any particular technology scenario. Doing so would clarify the full level of decarbonization necessary and remove the question of whether emissions reductions that do occur should count as mitigation or not. But even assuming that historical rates of decarbonization will persist and therefore that many hidden wedges will materialize, phasing-out emissions altogether will entail nearly three times the number of additional wedges that Pacala and Socolow originally proposed—a total of 19 wedges under the A2 scenario (figure 2). 4. The urgent need for innovation Confronting the need for as many as 31 wedges (12 hidden, 9 stabilization and 10 phase-out), the question is whether there are enough affordable mitigation options available, and—because the main source of CO2 emissions is the burning of fossil fuels—the answer depends upon an assessment of carbon-free energy technologies. There is a longstanding disagreement in the literature between those who argue that existing technologies, improved incrementally, are all that is needed to solve the climate problem (e.g. [1]) and others who argue that more transformational change is necessary (e.g. 42]). Although the disagreement has turned on the definitions of incremental and transformative and the trade-offs of a near-term versus a longer-term focus, the root difference lies in the perceived urgency of the climate problem [6]. The emission reductions required by current targets, let alone a complete phase-out of emissions, demand fundamental, disruptive changes in the global energy system over the next 50 years. Depending on what sort of fossil-fuel infrastructure is replaced and neglecting any emissions produced to build and maintain the new infrastructure (see, e.g. [43]), a single wedge represents 0.7-1.4 terawatts (TW) of carbon-free energy (or an equivalent decrease in demand for fossil energy). Whether the changes to the energy system are called incremental or revolutionary, few would dispute that extensive innovation of technologies will be necessary to afford many terawatts of carbon-free energy and reductions in energy demand [42, 44, 45]. Currently, only a few classes of technologies might conceivably provide carbon-free power at the scale of multiple terawatts, among them fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear, and renewables (principally solar and wind, and perhaps biomass) [42, 46, 47]. However, CCS has not yet been commercially deployed at any centralized power plant; the existing nuclear industry, based on reactor designs more than a half-century old and facing renewed public concerns of safety, is in a period of retrenchment, not expansion; and existing solar, wind, biomass, and energy storage systems are not yet mature enough to provide affordable baseload power at terawatt scale. Each of these technologies must be further developed if they are to be deployed at scale and at costs competitive with fossil energy. Yet because investments in the energy sector tend to be capital intensive and long term, research successes are often not fully appropriable [48], and technologies compete almost entirely on the price of delivered electricity, private firms tend to underinvest in R&D, which has made energy one of the least innovative industry sectors in modern economies [44]. Supporting deployment of newer energy technologies at large scales will undoubtedly lead to further development and reduced costs [49, 50], but additional public support for early stage R&D will also be necessary to induce needed innovation [6, 44, 45, 51-53]. Moreover, it is imperative that policies and programs also address the intermediate stages of development, demonstration, and commercialization, when ideas born of public-funded research must be transferred to and diffused among private industries [44, 54, 55]. 5. Conclusions In 2004, Pacala and Socolow concluded that 'the choice today is between action and delay'. After eight years of mostly delay, the action now required is significantly greater. Current climate targets of 500 ppm and 2 °C of warming will require emissions to peak and decline in the next few decades. Solving the climate problem ultimately requires near-zero emissions. Given the current emissions trajectory, eliminating emissions over 50 years would require 19 wedges: 9 to stabilize emissions and an additional 10 to completely phase-out emissions. And if historical, background rates of decarbonization falter, 12 'hidden' wedges will also be necessary, bringing the total to a staggering 31 wedges. Filling this many wedges while sustaining global economic growth would mean deploying tens of terawatts of carbon-free energy in the next few decades. Doing so would entail a fundamental and disruptive overhaul of the global energy system, as the global energy infrastructure is replaced with new infrastructure that provides equivalent amounts of energy but does not emit CO2. Current technologies and systems cannot provide the amounts of carbon-free energy needed soon enough or affordably enough to achieve this transformation. An integrated and aggressive set of policies and programs is urgently needed to support energy technology innovation across all stages of research, development, demonstration, and commercialization. No matter the number required, wedges can still simplify and quantify the challenge. But the problem was never easy. Acknowledgments We thank six anonymous reviewers for their comments on various versions of the manuscript. We also especially thank R Socolow for several thoughtful and stimulating discussions of this work.

Analysis of the impact path on factors of China's energy-related CO2 emissions: a path analysis with latent variables.

PubMed

Chen, Wenhui; Lei, Yalin

2017-02-01

Identifying the impact path on factors of CO 2 emissions is crucial for the government to take effective measures to reduce carbon emissions. The most existing research focuses on the total influence of factors on CO 2 emissions without differentiating between the direct and indirect influence. Moreover, scholars have addressed the relationships among energy consumption, economic growth, and CO 2 emissions rather than estimating all the causal relationships simultaneously. To fill this research gaps and explore overall driving factors' influence mechanism on CO 2 emissions, this paper utilizes a path analysis model with latent variables (PA-LV) to estimate the direct and indirect effect of factors on China's energy-related carbon emissions and to investigate the causal relationships among variables. Three key findings emanate from the analysis: (1) The change in the economic growth pattern inhibits the growth rate of CO 2 emissions by reducing the energy intensity; (2) adjustment of industrial structure contributes to energy conservation and CO 2 emission reduction by raising the proportion of the tertiary industry; and (3) the growth of CO 2 emissions impacts energy consumption and energy intensity negatively, which results in a negative impact indirectly on itself. To further control CO 2 emissions, the Chinese government should (1) adjust the industrial structure and actively develop its tertiary industry to improve energy efficiency and develop low-carbon economy, (2) optimize population shifts to avoid excessive population growth and reduce energy consumption, and (3) promote urbanization steadily to avoid high energy consumption and low energy efficiency.

Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions from a rice-wheat rotation as affected by crop residue incorporation and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Jianwen; Huang, Yao; Zong, Lianggang; Zheng, Xunhua; Wang, Yuesi

2004-10-01

Field measurements were made from June 2001 to May 2002 to evaluate the effect of crop residue application and temperature on CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions within an entire rice-wheat rotation season. Rapeseed cake and wheat straw were incorporated into the soil at a rate of 2.25 t hm-2 when the rice crop was transplanted in June 2001. Compared with the control, the incorporation of rapeseed cake enhanced the emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O in the rice-growing season by 12.3%, 252.3%, and 17.5%, respectively, while no further effect was held on the emissions of CO2 and N2O in the following wheatgrowing season. The incorporation of wheat straw enhanced the emissions of CO2 and CH4 by 7.1% and 249.6%, respectively, but reduced the N2O emission by 18.8% in the rice-growing season. Significant reductions of 17.8% for the CO2 and of 12.9% for the N2O emission were observed in the following wheatgrowing season. A positive correlation existed between the emissions of N2O and CO2 ( R 2 = 0.445, n = 73, p < 0.001) from the rice-growing season when N2O was emitted. A trade-off relationship between the emissions of CH4 and N2O was found in the rice-growing season. The CH4 emission was significantly correlated with the CO2 emission for the period from rice transplantation to field drainage, but not for the entire rice-growing season. In addition, air temperature was found to regulate the CO2 emissions from the non-waterlogged period over the entire rice-wheat rotation season and the N2O emissions from the nonwaterlogged period of the rice-growing season, which can be quantitatively described by an exponential function. The temperature coefficient ( Q 10) was then evaluated to be 2.3±0.2 for the CO2 emission and 3.9±0.4 for the N2O emission, respectively.

Impacts of ocean acidification on marine seafood.

PubMed

Branch, Trevor A; DeJoseph, Bonnie M; Ray, Liza J; Wagner, Cherie A

2013-03-01

Ocean acidification is a series of chemical reactions due to increased CO(2) emissions. The resulting lower pH impairs the senses of reef fishes and reduces their survival, and might similarly impact commercially targeted fishes that produce most of the seafood eaten by humans. Shelled molluscs will also be negatively affected, whereas cephalopods and crustaceans will remain largely unscathed. Habitat changes will reduce seafood production from coral reefs, but increase production from seagrass and seaweed. Overall effects of ocean acidification on primary productivity and, hence, on food webs will result in hard-to-predict winners and losers. Although adaptation, parental effects, and evolution can mitigate some effects of ocean acidification, future seafood platters will look rather different unless CO(2) emissions are curbed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

a Multi Objective Model for Optimization of a Green Supply Chain Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paksoy, Turan; Özceylan, Eren; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm

2010-06-01

This study develops a model of a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) network which starts with the suppliers and recycles with the decomposition centers. As a traditional network design, we consider minimizing the all transportation costs and the raw material purchasing costs. To pay attention for the green impacts, different transportation choices are presented between echelons according to their CO2 emissions. The plants can purchase different raw materials in respect of their recyclable ratios. The focuses of this paper are conducting the minimizing total CO2 emissions. Also we try to encourage the customers to use recyclable materials as an environmental performance viewpoint besides minimizing total costs. A multi objective linear programming model is developed via presenting a numerical example. We close the paper with recommendations for future researches.

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Tibet and its cities in 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Yuli; Zheng, Heran; Guan, Dabo; Li, Chongmao; Mi, Zhifu; Meng, Jing; Schroeder, Heike; Ma, Jibo; Ma, Zhuguo

2017-08-01

Because of its low level of energy consumption and the small scale of its industrial development, the Tibet Autonomous Region has historically been excluded from China's reported energy statistics, including those regarding CO2 emissions. In this paper, we estimate Tibet's energy consumption using limited online documents, and we calculate the 2014 energy-related and process-related CO2 emissions of Tibet and its seven prefecture-level administrative divisions for the first time. Our results show that 5.52 million tons of CO2 were emitted in Tibet in 2014; 33% of these emissions are associated with cement production. Tibet's emissions per capita amounted to 1.74 tons in 2014, which is substantially lower than the national average, although Tibet's emission intensity is relatively high at 0.60 tons per thousand yuan in 2014. Among Tibet's seven prefecture-level administrative divisions, Lhasa City and Shannan Region are the two largest CO2 contributors and have the highest per capita emissions and emission intensities. The Nagqu and Nyingchi regions emit little CO2 due to their farming/pasturing-dominated economies. This quantitative measure of Tibet's regional CO2 emissions provides solid data support for Tibet's actions on climate change and emission reductions.