Perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; Schaffhauser, A.

1994-04-01

This report offers perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry. These perspectives will be used in further research to assess the prospects for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). The perspectives are developed first by examining economic, political and regulatory, societal, technological, and environmental trends that are (1) national and global in scope and (2) directly related to the electric utility industry. Major national and global trends include increasing global economic competition, increasing political and ethnic strife, rapidly changing technologies, and increasing worldwide concern about the environment. Major trends in the utility industry include increasing competition in generation; changing patternsmore » of electricity demand; increasing use of information technology to control power systems; and increasing implementation of environmental controls. Ways in which the national and global trends may directly affect the utility industry are also explored. The trends are used to construct three global and national scenarios- ``business as usual,`` ``technotopia future,`` and ``fortress state`` -and three electric utility scenarios- ``frozen in headlights,`` ``megaelectric,`` and ``discomania.`` The scenarios are designed to be thought provoking descriptions of potential futures, not predictions of the future, although three key variables are identified that will have significant impacts on which future evolves-global climate change, utility technologies, and competition. While emphasis needs to be placed on understanding the electric utility scenarios, the interactions between the two sets of scenarios is also of interest.« less

Past, Present, and Future Trends in Teaching Clinical Skills through Web-Based Learning Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coe Regan, Jo Ann R.; Youn, Eric J.

2008-01-01

Distance education in social work has grown significantly due to the use of interactive television and computer networks. Given the recent developments in delivering distance education utilizing Web-based technology, this article presents a literature review focused on identifying generational trends in the development of Web-based learning…

Software development environments: Present and future, appendix D

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riddle, W. E.

1980-01-01

Computerized environments which facilitate the development of appropriately functioning software systems are discussed. Their current status is reviewed and several trends exhibited by their history are identified. A number of principles, some at (slight) variance with the historical trends, are suggested and it is argued that observance of these principles is critical to achieving truly effective and efficient software development support environments.

US computer research networks: Current and future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratochvil, D.; Sood, D.; Verostko, A.

1989-01-01

During the last decade, NASA LeRC's Communication Program has conducted a series of telecommunications forecasting studies to project trends and requirements and to identify critical telecommunications technologies that must be developed to meet future requirements. The Government Networks Division of Contel Federal Systems has assisted NASA in these studies, and the current study builds upon these earlier efforts. The current major thrust of the NASA Communications Program is aimed at developing the high risk, advanced, communications satellite and terminal technologies required to significantly increase the capacity of future communications systems. Also, major new technological, economic, and social-political events and trends are now shaping the communications industry of the future. Therefore, a re-examination of future telecommunications needs and requirements is necessary to enable NASA to make management decisions in its Communications Program and to ensure the proper technologies and systems are addressed. This study, through a series of Task Orders, is helping NASA define the likely communication service needs and requirements of the future and thereby ensuring that the most appropriate technology developments are pursued.

Visualizing the future: technology competency development in clinical medicine, and implications for medical education.

PubMed

Srinivasan, Malathi; Keenan, Craig R; Yager, Joel

2006-01-01

In this article, the authors ask three questions. First, what will physicians need to know in order to be effective in the future? Second, what role will technology play in achieving that high level of effectiveness? Third, what specific skill sets will physicians need to master in order to become effective? Through three case vignettes describing past, present, and potential future medical practices, the authors identify trends in major medical, technological and cultural shifts that will shape medical education and practice. From these cases, the authors generate a series of technology-related competencies and skill sets that physicians will need to remain leaders in the delivery of medical care. Physicians will choose how they will be end-users of technology, technology developers, and/or the interface between users and developers. These choices will guide the types of skills each physician will need to acquire. Finally, the authors explore the implications of these trends for medical educators, including the competencies that will be required of educators as they develop the medical curriculum. Examining historical and social trends, including how users adopt current and emerging technologies, allows us to anticipate changes in the practice of medicine. By considering market pressures, global trends and emerging technologies, medical educators and practicing physicians may prepare themselves for the changes likely to occur in the medical curriculum and in the marketplace.

The application demand analysis of advanced photoelectric technology in the future unmanned vehicle loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Cao, Wei; Li, Shengcai; Lu, Peng

2018-01-01

Introduced some unmanned vehicles development present situation, points out that the main development trend of photoelectric technology, analyzes the basic ability requirement of unmanned vehicles, in the future war system demonstrates the photoelectric information transmission, battlefield situational awareness, photoelectric integrated optoelectronic technology such as against the application of the unmanned vehicles demand in the future.

The Future of Clinical Dentistry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slavkin, Harold C.

1998-01-01

Discussion of the future of clinical dentistry looks at a variety of influences, including historical development factors; demographic trends; the role of the Human Genome Project in the development of scientific knowledge; a paradigm shift in approaches to oral infection and systemic disease; advancing technology; and reforms resulting from these…

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Faculty Development for Advancing Community Engagement in Higher Education: Current Trends and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welch, Marshall; Plaxton-Moore, Star

2017-01-01

This research involved the conduct of a conceptual review of 28 refereed journal articles and a survey of campus centers for community engagement staff to identify salient features and trends of existing faculty development programming designed to advance service-learning and community engagement in higher education. Results of this investigation…

Toward a Sustainable Agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Future trends in population growth, energy use, climate change, and globalization will challenge agriculturists to develop innovative production systems that are highly productive and environmentally sound. Furthermore, future agricultural production systems must possess an inherent capacity to adap...

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abraham, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation discusses the direction of future missions and it's significance to the Deep Space Network. The topics include: 1) The Deep Space Network (DSN); 2) Past Missions Driving DSN Evolution; 3) The Changing Mission Paradigm; 4) Assessing Future Mission Needs; 5) Link Support Trends; 6) Downlink Rate Trends; 7) Uplink Rate Trends; 8) End-to-End Link Difficulty Trends; 9) Summary: Future Mission Trend Drivers; and 10) Conclusion: Implications for the DSN.

Back to the Future: Anticipating and Preparing for Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lapin, Joel D.

1992-01-01

Explains how colleges can take control of their futures by anticipating needs and demands. Describes environmental scanning, a way of identifying future concerns based on current trends and emerging issues. Provides examples of colleges that used forecasting and scanning to develop new courses and refine mission statements. (DMM)

Future trends in image coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habibi, Ali

1993-01-01

The objective of this article is to present a discussion on the future of image data compression in the next two decades. It is virtually impossible to predict with any degree of certainty the breakthroughs in theory and developments, the milestones in advancement of technology and the success of the upcoming commercial products in the market place which will be the main factors in establishing the future stage to image coding. What we propose to do, instead, is look back at the progress in image coding during the last two decades and assess the state of the art in image coding today. Then, by observing the trends in developments of theory, software, and hardware coupled with the future needs for use and dissemination of imagery data and the constraints on the bandwidth and capacity of various networks, predict the future state of image coding. What seems to be certain today is the growing need for bandwidth compression. The television is using a technology which is half a century old and is ready to be replaced by high definition television with an extremely high digital bandwidth. Smart telephones coupled with personal computers and TV monitors accommodating both printed and video data will be common in homes and businesses within the next decade. Efficient and compact digital processing modules using developing technologies will make bandwidth compressed imagery the cheap and preferred alternative in satellite and on-board applications. In view of the above needs, we expect increased activities in development of theory, software, special purpose chips and hardware for image bandwidth compression in the next two decades. The following sections summarize the future trends in these areas.

International Conference on Aerospace Trends...2001 - From Aeroplane to Aerospace Plane, Thiruvananthapuram, India, June 27, 28, 1991, Proceedings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1991-08-01

Consideration is given to operational characteristics of future launch vehicles, trends in propulsion technology, technology challenges in the development of cryogenic propulsion systems for future reusable space-launch vehicles, estimation of the overall drag coefficient of an aerospace plane, and self-reliance in aerospace structures. Attention is also given to basic design concepts for smart actuators for aerospace plane control, a software package for the preliminary design of a helicopter, and multiconstraint wing optimization.

Frequency standards from government laboratories over the next 25 years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maleki, L.

1994-01-01

Based on a number of considerations including projected needs, current status, future trends, and status of key technologies, an attempt is made to project the future of government supported frequency standards development in the next 25 years.

Advanced electronic displays and their potential in future transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, J. J.

1981-01-01

It is pointed out that electronic displays represent one of the keys to continued integration and improvement of the effectiveness of avionic systems in future transport aircraft. An employment of modern electronic display media and generation has become vital in connection with the increases in modes and functions of modern aircraft. Requirements for electronic systems of future transports are examined, and a description is provided of the tools which are available for cockpit integration, taking into account trends in information processing and presentation, trends in integrated display devices, and trends concerning input/output devices. Developments related to display media, display generation, and I/O devices are considered, giving attention to a comparison of CRT and flat-panel display technology, advanced HUD technology and multifunction controls. Integrated display formats are discussed along with integrated systems and cockpit configurations.

The Future of Workforce Development--A Global Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Twigger, Anthony J.

Recent research has identified trends in the training systems of 13 countries in Africa (Egypt, Mauritius, South Africa); the Arab States (Bahrain, Jordan); Asia (Australia, Fiji, Malaysia); Eastern Europe (Albania, Slovenia); Western Europe (Ireland, Portugal); and the Mediterranean region (Malta). The trends identified are legislation;…

ED QUEST: A Model Procedure for Futures Planning in Educational Organizations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Charles F.

Most educational planning models are weak at identifying future events and assessing their impact on education. At best they assume a surprise-free future in which present trends continue unabated and interrelationships among social, economic, political, and technological forces stay the same. The ED QUEST model was developed to ameliorate these…

International trends in health science librarianship: part 3--the Nordic countries.

PubMed

Haglund, Lotta; Buset, Karen J; Kristiansen, Hanne M; Ovaska, Tuulevi; Murphy, Jeannette

2012-09-01

This is the third in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors carried out a survey of librarians in Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland to identify common developments in their countries. A focus on pedagogy was seen as the most important trend. Future issues will track trends in Southern Europe and Latin America. JM. © 2012 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2012 Health Libraries Group.

Trends of Diversification and Expansion in Israeli Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guri-Rozenblit, Sarah

1993-01-01

A discussion of recent changes in Israeli higher education looks at the system's structure, emergence of private law schools, the upgrading of some vocationally oriented postsecondary institutions to academic status, academic tracks of study within regional colleges, and possible future developments. Some comparisons are made with trends in other…

Toward 2000. Trends Report II: Elementary-Secondary Projections.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Press, Harold L.

Comprehensive, systematic planning provides the overall direction for education through the development of policies and objectives. An understanding of demographic, social, and economic trends is necessary for educators to make decisions for the future. The 1986 demographic forecasts for the province of Newfoundland are updated in this report,…

Research Training--Present & Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

In 10 papers by independent experts, this volume explores the trends in and prospects for research training in member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. "Problems and Prospects of Research Training in the 1990s" (Stuart Blume) looks at trends in national policy toward research training and issues of…

The Future of Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minic, Branka; Varney, Rich

2005-01-01

Manpower, a global employment services company with operations in over 67 countries, engages every day with the economic and business trends that are reshaping enterprises worldwide. As a partner in workforce development projects, Manpower has also seen the impact of these trends on the design of effective training and employment initiatives for…

Global Survey on Future Trends in Human Spaceflight: the Implications for Space Tourism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurtuna, O.; Garneau, S.

2002-01-01

With the much-publicized first ever space tourist flight, of Dennis Tito, and the announcement of the second space tourist flight to take place in April 2002, it is clear that an alternative motivation for human spaceflight has emerged. Human spaceflight is no longer only about meeting the priorities of national governments and space agencies, but is also about the tangible possibility of ordinary people seeing the Earth from a previously exclusive vantage point. It is imperative that major space players look beyond the existing human spaceflight rationale to identify some of the major driving forces behind space tourism, including the evolving market potential and developments in enabling technologies. In order to determine the influence of these forces on the future of commercial human spaceflight, the responses of a Futuraspace survey on future trends in human spaceflight are analyzed and presented. The motivation of this study is to identify sought-after space destinations, explore the expected trends in enabling technologies, and understand the future role of emerging space players. The survey will reflect the opinions of respondents from around the world including North America, Europe (including Russia) and Asia. The profiles of targeted respondents from space industry, government and academia are high-level executives/managers, senior researchers, as well as former and current astronauts. The survey instrument is a questionnaire which is validated by a pilot study. The sampling method is non-probabilistic, targeting as many space experts as possible who fit our intended respondent profile. Descriptive and comparative statistical analysis methods are implemented to investigate both global and regional perceptions of future commercial trends in human spaceflight. This study is not intended to be a formal market study of the potential viability of the space tourism market. Instead, the focus is on the future trends of human spaceflight, by drawing on the knowledge and vision of a pool of space experts from many countries, representing the multidisciplinary and international nature of human spaceflight. A comprehensive look into the future can be achieved which surpasses our individual perceptions of future trends and which will complement existing and future space tourism market studies.

Evaluative Conditioning: Recent Developments and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gast, Anne; Gawronski, Bertram; De Houwer, Jan

2012-01-01

Evaluative conditioning (EC) is generally considered to be one of the routes via which likes and dislikes are acquired. We identify recent trends in EC research and speculate about the topics that will dominate future research on EC. Many of the recent developments in EC research were shaped by functional definitions of EC that refer only to…

44 CFR 201.6 - Local Mitigation Plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... agencies that have the authority to regulate development, as well as businesses, academia and other private... and development trends within the community so that mitigation options can be considered in future...

Multi-target drugs: the trend of drug research and development.

PubMed

Lu, Jin-Jian; Pan, Wei; Hu, Yuan-Jia; Wang, Yi-Tao

2012-01-01

Summarizing the status of drugs in the market and examining the trend of drug research and development is important in drug discovery. In this study, we compared the drug targets and the market sales of the new molecular entities approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration from January 2000 to December 2009. Two networks, namely, the target-target and drug-drug networks, have been set up using the network analysis tools. The multi-target drugs have much more potential, as shown by the network visualization and the market trends. We discussed the possible reasons and proposed the rational strategies for drug research and development in the future.

Development of Methods for the Determination of pKa Values

PubMed Central

Reijenga, Jetse; van Hoof, Arno; van Loon, Antonie; Teunissen, Bram

2013-01-01

The acid dissociation constant (pKa) is among the most frequently used physicochemical parameters, and its determination is of interest to a wide range of research fields. We present a brief introduction on the conceptual development of pKa as a physical parameter and its relationship to the concept of the pH of a solution. This is followed by a general summary of the historical development and current state of the techniques of pKa determination and an attempt to develop insight into future developments. Fourteen methods of determining the acid dissociation constant are placed in context and are critically evaluated to make a fair comparison and to determine their applications in modern chemistry. Additionally, we have studied these techniques in light of present trends in science and technology and attempt to determine how these trends might affect future developments in the field. PMID:23997574

Global mega forces: Implications for the future of natural resources

Treesearch

George H. Kubik

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of leading global mega forces and their importance to the future of natural resource decisionmaking, policy development, and operation. Global mega forces are defined as a combination of major trends, preferences, and probabilities that come together to produce the potential for future high-impact outcomes. These...

Enabling Technologies for the Future of Chemical Synthesis.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Daniel E; Battilocchio, Claudio; Ley, Steven V

2016-03-23

Technology is evolving at breakneck pace, changing the way we communicate, travel, find out information, and live our lives. Yet chemistry as a science has been slower to adapt to this rapidly shifting world. In this Outlook we use highlights from recent literature reports to describe how progresses in enabling technologies are altering this trend, permitting chemists to incorporate new advances into their work at all levels of the chemistry development cycle. We discuss the benefits and challenges that have arisen, impacts on academic-industry relationships, and future trends in the area of chemical synthesis.

Ten power mega-trends for the 1990`s

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zimmer, M.J.

1995-12-01

Changes in the power generation industry have accelerated, with the progress of new legislation, globalization, financing and technology leading the way. Major trends shaping the future of the industry this decade include: fuels; niche markets; utility generation; financing; retail service; transmission; geographic regions; repowering; international developments; and regulation. These factors are discussed briefly.

75 FR 63874 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of a Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-18

... future market trends or direction; rather, the Fund seeks to capture profits in these trends when and where they develop. The strategy is diversified across markets and timeframes with strict risk control..., commodity and currency markets, independent of market direction, by producing absolute returns with reduced...

The Future Prospects of Modern Adolescents in the Life Course Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bochaver, A. A.; Zhilinskaya, A. V.; Khlomov, K. D.

2017-01-01

The article examines trends in theoretical and applied concepts about the adolescent period and in particular about how adolescents develop life goals. We discuss the blurring of the boundaries of adolescence, the postponement of life decisions, and the difficult process of separating from parents as trends in modern adolescent life. Certain…

Teaching and California's Future: California's Teaching Force, 2008. Key Issues and Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guha, R.; Shields, P.; Tiffany-Morales, J.; Bland, J.; Campbell, A.

2008-01-01

This year's report provides an update on California's teacher workforce and state policies that affect the teacher development system. It examines overall trends in the workforce and discusses the demand for teachers, the distribution of underprepared teachers, and the implementation of a statewide data system to improve the quality and accuracy…

International trends in health science librarianship: Part 2--Northern Europe.

PubMed

Dollfuss, Helmut; Bauer, Bruno; Declève, Ghislaine; Verhaaren, Henri; Utard-Wlerick, Guillemette; Bakker, Suzanne; Leclerq, Edith; Murphy, Jeannette

2012-06-01

This is the third in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors were asked to reflect on developments in their country--viz. Austria, Belgium, France and the Netherlands. Future issues will track trends in the Nordic countries, Southern Europe and Latin America. JM. © 2012 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2012 Health Libraries Group.

78 FR 43123 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 6-Month Extension of Final Determinations on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-19

...; (4) Projections for future residential development and human population growth within Gunnison sage.... Specifically, commenters suggested that we may have overestimated the amount of future growth in human... population trends. Specifically, some scientists [[Page 43124

HRD Degrees.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geber, Beverly

1987-01-01

The author describes the growing movement toward accreditation for human resources development professionals. She covers the issue of diversity, undergraduate versus graduate degrees, and future trends. (CH)

Educational Software: A Developer's Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Armstrong, Timothy C.; Loane, Russell F.

1994-01-01

Examines the current status and short-term future of computer software development in higher education. Topics discussed include educational advantages of software; current program development techniques, including object oriented programming; and market trends, including IBM versus Macintosh and multimedia programs. (LRW)

Status and Trend of Automotive Power Packaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liang, Zhenxian

2012-01-01

Comprehensive requirements in aspects of cost, reliability, efficiency, form factor, weight, and volume for power electronics modules in modern electric drive vehicles have driven the development of automotive power packaging technology intensively. Innovation in materials, interconnections, and processing techniques is leading to enormous improvements in power modules. In this paper, the technical development of and trends in power module packaging are evaluated by examining technical details with examples of industrial products. The issues and development directions for future automotive power module packaging are also discussed.

Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, N.; Overholt, W.; Thomas, J.; Wiener, A. J.

1975-01-01

Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

Curriculum Development in Geomorphology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gregory, Kenneth J.

1988-01-01

Examines the context of present curriculum development in geomorphology and the way in which it has developed in recent years. Discusses the content of the geomorphology curriculum in higher education and the consequences of curriculum development together with a consideration of future trends and their implications. (GEA)

Trends and Projections of Climatic Extremes in the Black Volta Basin, West Africa: Towards Climate Change Adaptation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz, F.

2015-12-01

The water resources of the Black Volta Basin in West Africa constitute a major resource for the four countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali) that share it. For Burkina Faso and Ghana, the river is the main natural resource around which the development of the diverse sectors of the two economies is built. Whereas Ghana relies heavily on the river for energy, land-locked Burkina Faso continuously develops the water for agricultural purposes. Such important role of the river makes it an element around which there are potential conflicts: either among riparian countries or within the individual countries themselves. This study documents the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Black Volta Basin region for the past (1981-2010) and makes projections for the mid-late 21st century (2051-2080) under two emission scenarios; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with the RClimdex software. Observed daily records and downscaled CORDEX data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are used for historical and future trend analysis respectively. In general low emission scenarios show increases in the cold extremes. The region shows a consistent pattern of trends in hot extremes for the 1990's. An increasing trend in hot extremes is expected in the future under RCP 8.5 while RCP 2.5 shows reductions in hot extremes. Regardless of the emission scenario, projections show more frequent hot nights in the 21st century. Generally, the region shows variability in trends for future extreme precipitation indices with only a few of the trends being statistically significant (5% level). Results obtained provide a basic and first step to understanding how climatic extremes have been changing in the Volta Basin region and gives an idea of what to expect in the future. Such studies will also help in making informed decisions on water management in the basin. The various water users; agriculture, household, industries will be able to prepare adequately and adapt to changes when they have information of the trends of extreme events well ahead of time.

Trends in Mobile Application Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holzer, Adrian; Ondrus, Jan

Major software companies, such as Apple and Google, are disturbing the relatively safe and established actors of the mobile application business. These newcomers have caused significant structural changes by imposing and enforcing their own rules for the future of mobile application development. The implications of these changes do not only concern the mobile network operators and mobile phone manufacturers. This changed environment also brings additional opportunities and constraints for current mobile application developers. Therefore, developers need to assess what their options are and how they can take advantages of these current trends. In this paper, we take a developer’s perspective in order to explore how the structural changes will influence the mobile application development markets. Moreover, we discuss what aspects developers need to take into account in order to position themselves within the current trends.

Gender Development Research in Sex Roles: Historical Trends and Future Directions.

PubMed

Zosuls, Kristina M; Miller, Cindy Faith; Ruble, Diane N; Martin, Carol Lynn; Fabes, Richard A

2011-06-01

The late 1960s through the 1970s marked an important turning point in the field of gender research, including theory and research in gender development. The establishment of Sex Roles in 1975 as a forum for this research represented an important milestone in the field. In this article, we celebrate the 35th anniversary of Sex Roles and, in particular, its contributions to the field of research on children's and adolescents' gender development. We examine the trends in research on gender development published in Sex Roles since its inception and use this analysis as a vehicle for exploring how the field has grown and evolved over the past few decades. We begin with a brief review of the history of this field of research since 1975. Then, we present a descriptive assessment of articles published on gender development in Sex Roles over time, and link this assessment to general trends that have occurred in the study of gender development over the past 35 years. We conclude with a discussion of future directions for the field of gender development. In particular, we highlight areas in which the journal could play a role in promoting more diversity in topics, methods, and ages employed in gender development research.

Gender Development Research in Sex Roles: Historical Trends and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Miller, Cindy Faith; Ruble, Diane N.; Martin, Carol Lynn; Fabes, Richard A.

2011-01-01

The late 1960s through the 1970s marked an important turning point in the field of gender research, including theory and research in gender development. The establishment of Sex Roles in 1975 as a forum for this research represented an important milestone in the field. In this article, we celebrate the 35th anniversary of Sex Roles and, in particular, its contributions to the field of research on children’s and adolescents’ gender development. We examine the trends in research on gender development published in Sex Roles since its inception and use this analysis as a vehicle for exploring how the field has grown and evolved over the past few decades. We begin with a brief review of the history of this field of research since 1975. Then, we present a descriptive assessment of articles published on gender development in Sex Roles over time, and link this assessment to general trends that have occurred in the study of gender development over the past 35 years. We conclude with a discussion of future directions for the field of gender development. In particular, we highlight areas in which the journal could play a role in promoting more diversity in topics, methods, and ages employed in gender development research. PMID:21747580

Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trendsmore » and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.« less

How a future energy world could look?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewert, M.

2012-10-01

The future energy system will change significantly within the next years as a result of the following Mega Trends: de-carbonization, urbanization, fast technology development, individualization, glocalization (globalization and localization) and changing demographics. Increasing fluctuating renewable production will change the role of non-renewable generation. Distributed energy from renewables and micro generation will change the direction of the energy flow in the electricity grids. Production will not follow demand but demand has to follow production. This future system is enabled by the fast technical development of information and communication technologies which will be present in the entire system. In this paper the results of a comprehensive analysis with different scenarios is summarized. Tools were used like the analysis of policy trends in the European countries, modelling of the European power grid, modelling of the European power markets and the analysis of technology developments with cost reduction potentials. With these tools the interaction of the main actors in the energy markets like conventional generation and renewable generation, grid transport, electricity storage including new storage options from E-Mobility, Power to Gas, Compressed Air Energy storage and demand side management were considered. The potential application of technologies and investments in new energy technologies were analyzed within existing frameworks and markets as well as new business models in new markets with different frameworks. In the paper the over all trend of this analysis is presented by describing a potential future energy world. This world represents only one of numerous options with comparable characteristics.

Regulatory focus affects predictions of the future.

PubMed

Guo, Tieyuan; Spina, Roy

2015-02-01

This research investigated how regulatory focus might influence trend-reversal predictions. We hypothesized that compared with promotion focus, prevention focus hinders sense of control, which in turn predicts more trend-reversal developments. Studies 1 and 3 revealed that participants expected trend-reversal developments to be more likely to occur when they focused on prevention than when they focused on promotion. Study 2 extended the findings by including a control condition, and revealed that participants expected trend-reversal developments to be more likely to occur in the prevention condition than in the promotion and control conditions. Studies 4 and 5 revealed that participants' chronic prevention focus predicted a low sense of control (Study 4), and that promotion focus predicted a high sense of control (Studies 4 and 5). Furthermore, participants with a high sense of control expected trend-reversal developments to be less likely to occur. Thus, the results provided converging evidence for the hypothesis. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Planning in the 90's for Community Colleges: Coping with Rapid Change by Linking Futures Research with Professional Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Diana K.

The rate of the change now occurring outside of community colleges has made long-range planning an especially difficult task. Futures research, which attempts to forecast future scenarios by studying societal, economic, and demographic trends, can be used effectively to facilitate the institutional planning process by anticipating both internal…

Australian Apprenticeships: Trends, Challenges and Future Opportunities for Dealing with Industry 4.0. Conference Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loveder, Phil

2017-01-01

The Australian economy is in transition. Its future prosperity will depend on greater economic diversification and on innovation and entrepreneurship, hallmarks of Industry 4.0. This has implications for skills development for future workers and for those needing to move into new jobs or roles. It also has a direct impact on apprenticeships--an…

What Changes Can We Expect? Future Trends Impacting Early Childhood Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neugebauer, Roger; Donohue, Chip; Schweinhart, Larry; Milic, Sasa; Martin, Jody

2011-01-01

The author invited some of his friends to give their views regarding key trends that will impact the early childhood world in the coming years. Chip Donohue, Director of Distance Learning, Erikson Institute, Chicago, Illinois, observed that the rapid pace of technology development and deployment has already changed, and will continue to change,…

The Integration of Word Processing with Data Processing in an Educational Environment. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patterson, Lorna; Schlender, Jim

A project examined the Office of the Future and determined trends regarding an integration of word processing and data processing. It then sought to translate those trends into an educational package to develop the potential information specialist. A survey instrument completed by 33 office managers and word processing and data processing…

Health Care Consumption among Elderly Patients in California: A Comprehensive 10-Year Evaluation of Trends in Hospitalization Rates and Charges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koziol, James A.; Zuraw, Bruce L.; Christiansen, Sandra C.

2002-01-01

Purpose: This report examines health care rates, charges, and patterns of consumption from a comprehensive California hospitalization data set covering 1986-1995. An improved understanding of current trends in health care consumption would facilitate the development of future resource allocation models. Design and Methods: We obtained discharge…

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foulon, Étienne; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gagnon, Patrick

2018-02-01

Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 1961-2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7- and 30-day low flows for two hydrological seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under changing climate conditions.

Education, Evolution, and the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogilvy, James

1981-01-01

This paper explores some implications of applying evolutionary theory to education. New developments in evolutionary theory provide insights on both the macro- and micro-levels of learning: for trends in the educational system, and for a better understanding of individual cases. (Part of a theme issue on educational futures.) (Author/SJL)

Integrating Curriculum for Tomorrow's Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keitz, Ruth

1987-01-01

Finding that its curriculum renewal and adoption process was flawed, the Anchorage School District (AK) instituted new holistic process that identified major trends of the future and then developed groups of skills necessary for living in that future. Curriculum was reworked to prepare students to live in a world that demands flexibility,…

Future Trends in Educational Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singaravelu, G.; Muthukrishnan, T.

2007-01-01

In the past, teachers were the primary medium of instruction and communication for their students. The teacher's role in the classroom is changing due to developments in technology. This article discusses the ways in which technology will change education in the future, and how these changes will affect the interactions between students and…

Community College Roles in Teacher Education: Current Approaches and Future Possibilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Townsend, Barbara K.; Ignash, Jan M, ED.

2003-01-01

Examines the current role of community colleges in pre-service and in-service teacher education, including the development of the associate of arts degree in teacher education, the community college baccalaureate in teacher education, and alternative certification programs. Discusses factors influencing future trends and predictions about the…

The Future of Migration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

This book comprises papers delivered at a conference of National Experts on Migration. The principle objective of the conference was twofold: to examine significant trends that will affect the future of migration in countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OCED), and to identify the relevant issues that will have to…

Time Series Analysis of Technology Trends based on the Internet Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Shin-Ichi; Shirai, Yasuyuki; Hiyane, Kazuo; Kumeno, Fumihiro; Inujima, Hiroshi; Yamauchi, Noriyoshi

Information technology is increasingly important in recent years for the development of our society. IT has brought many changes to everything in our society with incredible speed. Hence, when we investigate R & D themes or plan business strategies in IT, we must understand overall situation around the target technology area besides technology itself. Especially it is crucial to understand overall situation as time series to know what will happen in the near future in the target area. For this purpose, we developed a method to generate Multiple-phased trend maps automatically based on the Internet content. Furthermore, we introduced quantitative indicators to analyze near future possible changes. According to the evaluation of this method we got successful and interesting results.

Current trends in nursing theories.

PubMed

Im, Eun-Ok; Chang, Sun Ju

2012-06-01

To explore current trends in nursing theories through an integrated literature review. The literature related to nursing theories during the past 10 years was searched through multiple databases and reviewed to determine themes reflecting current trends in nursing theories. The trends can be categorized into six themes: (a) foci on specifics; (b) coexistence of various types of theories; (c) close links to research; (d) international collaborative works; (e) integration to practice; and (f) selective evolution. We need to make our continuous efforts to link research and practice to theories, to identify specifics of our theories, to develop diverse types of theories, and to conduct international collaborative works. Our paper gives implications for future theoretical development in diverse clinical areas of nursing research and practice. © 2012 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Educational Radio: Directions in the Pacific.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reddy, Sachida

1986-01-01

This personal perspective on developments in educational radio broadcasting in some small island nations of the South Pacific discusses radio as a powerful teaching aid, curriculum development, educational communicators, printed support materials, costs, facilities duplication, and future trends. (MBR)

Assessment for fuel consumption and exhaust emissions of China's vehicles: future trends and policy implications.

PubMed

Wu, Yingying; Zhao, Peng; Zhang, Hongwei; Wang, Yuan; Mao, Guozhu

2012-01-01

In the recent years, China's auto industry develops rapidly, thus bringing a series of burdens to society and environment. This paper uses Logistic model to simulate the future trend of China's vehicle population and finds that China's auto industry would come into high speed development time during 2020-2050. Moreover, this paper predicts vehicles' fuel consumption and exhaust emissions (CO, HC, NO(x), and PM) and quantificationally evaluates related industry policies. It can be concluded that (1) by 2020, China should develop at least 47 million medium/heavy hybrid cars to prevent the growth of vehicle fuel consumption; (2) China should take the more stringent vehicle emission standard V over 2017-2021 to hold back the growth of exhaust emissions; (3) developing new energy vehicles is the most effective measure to ease the pressure brought by auto industry.

Assessment for Fuel Consumption and Exhaust Emissions of China's Vehicles: Future Trends and Policy Implications

PubMed Central

Zhao, Peng; Zhang, Hongwei; Wang, Yuan; Mao, Guozhu

2012-01-01

In the recent years, China's auto industry develops rapidly, thus bringing a series of burdens to society and environment. This paper uses Logistic model to simulate the future trend of China's vehicle population and finds that China's auto industry would come into high speed development time during 2020–2050. Moreover, this paper predicts vehicles' fuel consumption and exhaust emissions (CO, HC, NOx, and PM) and quantificationally evaluates related industry policies. It can be concluded that (1) by 2020, China should develop at least 47 million medium/heavy hybrid cars to prevent the growth of vehicle fuel consumption; (2) China should take the more stringent vehicle emission standard V over 2017–2021 to hold back the growth of exhaust emissions; (3) developing new energy vehicles is the most effective measure to ease the pressure brought by auto industry. PMID:23365524

Information Technology for Economic and Social Benefit--Options for Bangladesh.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bhuiyan, Farhad Ali

2002-01-01

Considers how information technology (IT) can help socioeconomic growth of developing countries based on experiences in Bangladesh. Topics include Bangladesh's development plans; future economic growth trends triggered by IT; emerging technologies; intellectual and societal development; industrial revolutions; telematics; regional and world…

Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research & Development - A Physics Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maceira, Monica; Blom, Philip Stephen; MacCarthy, Jonathan K.

This document entitled “Trends in Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Research and Development – A Physics Perspective” reviews the accessible literature, as it relates to nuclear explosion monitoring and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996), for four research areas: source physics (understanding signal generation), signal propagation (accounting for changes through physical media), sensors (recording the signals), and signal analysis (processing the signal). Over 40 trends are addressed, such as moving from 1D to 3D earth models, from pick-based seismic event processing to full waveform processing, and from separate treatment of mechanical waves in different media to combined analyses. Highlighted in the documentmore » for each trend are the value and benefit to the monitoring mission, key papers that advanced the science, and promising research and development for the future.« less

Enabling Technologies for the Future of Chemical Synthesis

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Technology is evolving at breakneck pace, changing the way we communicate, travel, find out information, and live our lives. Yet chemistry as a science has been slower to adapt to this rapidly shifting world. In this Outlook we use highlights from recent literature reports to describe how progresses in enabling technologies are altering this trend, permitting chemists to incorporate new advances into their work at all levels of the chemistry development cycle. We discuss the benefits and challenges that have arisen, impacts on academic–industry relationships, and future trends in the area of chemical synthesis. PMID:27163040

NASA and COTS Electronics: Past Approach and Successes - Future Considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaBel, Kenneth A.

2018-01-01

NASA has a long history of using commercial grade electronics in space. In this talk, a brief history of NASAâ's trends and approaches to commercial grade electronics focusing on processing and memory systems will be presented. This will include providing summary information on the space hazards to electronics as well as NASA mission trade space. We will also discuss developing recommendations for risk management approaches to Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts and reliability in space. The final portion of the talk will discuss emerging aerospace trends and the future for Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) usage.

The next 25 years: Industrialization of space - Rationale for planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Von Puttkamer, J.

1977-01-01

A methodology for planning the industralization of space is discussed. The suggested approach combines the extrapolative ('push') approach, in which alternative futures are projected on the basis of past and current trends and tendencies, with the normative ('pull') view, in which an ideal state in the far future is postulated and policies and decisions are directed toward its attainment. Time-reversed vectors of the future are tied to extrapolated, trend-oriented vectors of the quasi-present to identify common plateaus or stepping stones in technological development. Important steps in the industrialization of space to attain the short-range goals of production of space-derived energy, goods and services and the long-range goal of space colonization are discussed.

Engineering in the 21st century. [aerospace technology prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccarthy, J. F., Jr.

1978-01-01

A description is presented of the nature of the aerospace technology system that might be expected by the 21st century from a reasonable evolution of the current resources and capabilities. An aerospace employment outlook is provided. The years 1977 and 1978 seem to be marking the beginning of a period of stability and moderate growth in the aerospace industry. Aerospace research and development employment increased to 70,000 in 1977 and is now occupying a near-constant 18% share of the total research and development work force. The changing job environment is considered along with the future of aerospace education. It is found that one trend is toward a more interdisciplinary education. Most trend setters in engineering education recognize that the really challenging engineering problems invariably require the judicious exercise of several disciplines for their solution. Some future trends in aerospace technology are discussed. By the year 2000 space technology will have achieved major advances in four areas, including management of information, transportation, space structures, and energy.

Components of a Model for Forecasting Future Status of Selected Social Indicators. Department of Education Project on Social Indicators. Technical Report No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collazo, Andres; And Others

Since a great number of variables influence future educational outcomes, forecasting possible trends is a complex task. One such model, the cross-impact matrix, has been developed. The use of this matrix in forecasting future values of social indicators of educational outcomes is described. Variables associated with educational outcomes are used…

Future Trends in MIcroelectronics: Up the Nano Creek

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

developed focal plane arrays (FPA)3𔃾 in addition to emphasizing future development in UV-to-far infrared multicolor FPA detectors 5𔄀 for next generation... detectors ", IEEE J. Quantum Electronics 35, 1685 (1999). 3. P. Bois, E. Costard, X. Marcadet, and E. Herniou, "Development of quantum well infrared ...photodetector array", Infrared Phys. Technol. 44, 369 (2003). 5. M. N. Abedin, T. F. Refaat, J. M. Zawodny, et al., "Multicolor focal plane array detector

International trends in health science librarianship: part 1 - the English speaking world.

PubMed

Browne, Ruth; Lasserre, Kaye; McTaggart, Jill; Bayley, Liz; McKibbon, Ann; Clark, Megan; Perry, Gerald J; Murphy, Jeannette

2012-03-01

This is the second in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors were asked to reflect on developments in their country - viz. Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States. Future issues will track trends in Northern Europe, the Nordic countries, Southern Europe and Latin America. JM. © 2012 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2012 Health Libraries Group.

Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

2014-05-01

In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

The southern forest resource assessment: What we learned

Treesearch

David N. Wear; John G. Greis

2004-01-01

The Southern Forest Resource Assessment was initiated in the spring of 1999 to address broad questions concerning the status, trends, and possible future of southern forests. The overall objective of the assessment was to develop a thorough and objective description of forest conditions and trends in the South, and to present it in a way that would help the public...

The role of futures forecasts in recreation: some applications in the third nationwide outdoor recreation plan

Treesearch

Meg Maguire; Dana R. Younger

1980-01-01

This paper provides a quick glimpse into the theoretical applicability and importance of futures forecasting techniques in recreation policy planning. The paper also details contemporary socioeconomic trends affecting recreation, current recreation participation patterns and anticipated social changes which will alter public recreation experiences as developed in the...

Lifelong Education for Older Adults in Malta: Current Trends and Future Visions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Formosa, Marvin

2012-01-01

With European demographic developments causing a decline of the available workforce in the foreseeable future and the unsustainability of dominant pay-as-you-go pension systems (where contributions from the current workforce sustain pensioners), governments need to come up with strategies to deal with this upcoming challenge and to adjust their…

Into the Future: Adult Professional Groups and the 21st Century Museum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, Cynthia

2011-01-01

Museum programs for working adults in their workplace groups are an interesting and important recent development. These programs have the potential to contribute significantly to the future health of museums. This article shows that these programs link to and build on three important trends in museums--customized experiences, deep engagement, and…

Special Education Technologies for Young Children: Present and Future Learning Scenarios with Related Research Literature.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, J. Allen; And Others

1986-01-01

The article surveys computer usage with young handicapped children by developing three instructional scenarios (present actual, present possible, and future). Research is reviewed on computer use with very young children, cognitive theory and microcomputer learning, and social aspects of the microcomputer experience. Trends in microcomputer,…

Professional Counseling in Nigeria: Past, Present, and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okocha, Aneneosa A. G.; Alika, Ijeoma H.

2012-01-01

The events that circumscribed the parameters of today's counseling in Nigeria are many and varied regarding their influence in shaping the development of the profession in the country. The authors review these events and the current status of counseling in Nigeria, including the challenges faced in the profession. Future trends and suggestions for…

Cancer incidence in English children, adolescents and young people: past trends and projections to 2030

PubMed Central

Pesola, Francesca; Ferlay, Jacques; Sasieni, Peter

2017-01-01

Background: Estimating the future incidence of cancer is important to establish sufficient service provision, however, work in this area is limited for cancer in children, adolescents, and young adults (aged 0–24). Methods: Age-period-cohort models were applied to cancer incidence rates for the period 1971–2013 in England. This allowed us to extrapolate past trends to 2030. We used the appropriate cancer classification developed for cancers in children and young adults, which are analysed as two separate groups to capture inherent differences. Results: The data set consisted of 119 485 records (55% among 15+ years group). Overall, cancer rates have increased over time and are expected to continue to rise into the future. Of particular interest is the increase in rates of germ cell tumours (in males) and carcinomas (in females) in young adults, since their rates are projected to further increase over time. Conclusions: The estimated future incidence rates provide a baseline for different cancer subtypes, which will allow policymakers to develop a contingency plan to deal with future demands. PMID:29096400

Glory of piezoelectric perovskites.

PubMed

Uchino, Kenji

2015-08-01

This article reviews the history of piezoelectric perovskites and forecasts future development trends, including Uchino's discoveries such as the Pb(Mg 1/3 Nb 2/3 )O 3 -PbTiO 3 electrostrictor, Pb(Zn 1/3 Nb 2/3 )O 3 -PbTiO 3 single crystal, (Pb, La)(Zr, Ti)O 3 photostriction, and Pb(Zr, Ti)O 3 -Terfenol magnetoelectric composites. We discuss five key trends in the development of piezomaterials: performance to reliability, hard to soft, macro to nano, homo to hetero, and single to multi-functional.

University-Private Sector Research Partnerships in the Innovation Ecosystem

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-01

private sector . There are several trends that PCAST considers to fall specifically within context of university- private sector research partnerships. The first is the growing imbalance between the academic research capacity and the Federal research budget. The second development is the reduction in basic research performed by the industrial sector. Private foundations are expanding their capacity to fund research, a trend expected to be important in the future. Lastly, the accelerating speed of technological development requires new methods of

Future directions in technology development - Increased use of space as a facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambrus, Judith H.; Harris, Leonard A.; Levine, Jack; Tyson, Richard W.

1988-01-01

As human activities in space continue to grow in size and scope, the role of in-space technology experiments, as a necessary tool for essential technological development, will also grow. NASA has recognized the increasing importance of such experiments, and has instituted programs to plan, organize, and coordinate future in-space technology experiment activities within the overall space community. This paper discusses the history of in-space technology experiments, and expected future trends. It also describes NASA activities in this growing area of experimentation, and provides several examples of such experiments.

Sixteen Trends...Their Profound Impact on Our Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marx, Gary

2011-01-01

Seismic Shifts. Future Forces. Call them whatever you'd like. The Sixteen Trends revealed in this benchmark book will have a profound impact on our future. Noted futurist, educator, communicator, executive and leadership counsel, author, and international speaker Gary Marx makes the case for those trends and speculates on their implications for…

Web N.0, the New Development Trend of Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Zhiguo; Wang, Wensheng

This article analyzes the Internet basic theory, the network foundation environment and the user behavior change and so on, Which analyzes the development tendency of existing partial Internet products in the future Internet environment. The article also hot on the concept of cloud computing, Demonstrates the relation between Cloud Computing and Web 2.0 from the angle of Cloud-based end-user applications, The possibly killing application in the future was discussed.

Jobs: Ohio's Future. Creating a High Performance Workforce for Ohio. A Comprehensive Workforce Development Strategy Developed by the Governor's Human Resources Advisory Council. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio State Bureau of Employment Services, Columbus.

For a competitive advantage, Ohio must be sensitive to three national trends that will reshape its work force: the growing gap between the skill requirements of jobs and workers' capabilities, the slow growth of the labor force, and demands of a global economy. The future competitiveness of Ohio's economy will depend on its capacity to support the…

Regional Economic Integration in the Developing World: Historical Trends at the Future Viability

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-01-01

elements of these previous integration experiences is essential , as it aids in assessing the future effectiveness of current developing country integration...assessed in order to elements of these previous integration see whether they have avoided the experiences is essential , as it aids in problems that...promote was felt that the inefficiency would only be industries that were more technologically temporary. What was essential was that based, especially

Instruments, Detectors and the Future of Astronomy with Large Ground Based Telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simons, Douglas A.; Amico, Paola; Baade, Dietrich; Barden, Sam; Campbell, Randall; Finger, Gert; Gilmore, Kirk; Gredel, Roland; Hickson, Paul; Howell, Steve; Hubin, Norbert; Kaufer, Andreas; Kohley, Ralf; MacQueen, Philip; Markelov, Sergej; Merrill, Mike; Miyazaki, Satoshi; Nakaya, Hidehiko; O'Donoghue, Darragh; Oliva, Tino; Richichi, Andrea; Salmon, Derrick; Schmidt, Ricardo; Su, Hongjun; Tulloch, Simon; García Vargas, Maria Luisa; Wagner, R. Mark; Wiecha, Olivier; Ye, Binxun

2005-01-01

Results of a survey of instrumentation and detector systems, either currently deployed or planned for use at telescopes larger than 3.5 m, in ground based observatories world-wide, are presented. This survey revealed a number of instrumentation design trends at optical, near, and mid-infrared wavelengths. Some of the most prominent trends include the development of vastly larger optical detector systems (> 109 pixels) than anything built to date, and the frequent use of mosaics of near-infrared detectors - something that was quite rare only a decade ago in astronomy. Some future science applications for detectors are then explored, in an attempt to build a bridge between current detectors and what will be needed to support the research ambitions of astronomers in the future.

High School and Youth Trends

MedlinePlus

... High School and Youth Trends Monitoring the Future Survey: High School and Youth Trends Email Facebook Twitter ... December 2017 This year's Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey of drug use and attitudes among 8th, 10th, ...

Small Fluxgate Magnetometers: Development and Future Trends in Spain

PubMed Central

Ciudad, David; Díaz-Michelena, Marina; Pérez, Lucas; Aroca, Claudio

2010-01-01

In this paper, we give an overview of the research on fluxgate magnetometers carried out in Spain. In particular we focus in the development of the planar-type instruments. We summarize the fabrication processes and signal processing developments as well as their use in complex systems and space. PMID:22294904

Small fluxgate magnetometers: development and future trends in Spain.

PubMed

Ciudad, David; Díaz-Michelena, Marina; Pérez, Lucas; Aroca, Claudio

2010-01-01

In this paper, we give an overview of the research on fluxgate magnetometers carried out in Spain. In particular we focus in the development of the planar-type instruments. We summarize the fabrication processes and signal processing developments as well as their use in complex systems and space.

Developments in Indian Law from September 1, 1978 through August 31, 1979.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

American Indian Journal, 1979

1979-01-01

Law firm analysis which reviews developments in Indian law, discusses holdings and implications of some important Supreme Court decisions (Boldt Case, Yakima Public Law 280 Case, Blackbird Bend Case), analyzes litigation trends which appear to be developing, and comments on the future conduct of Indian litigation. (DS)

The Impact of the GE Foundation "Developing Futures"™ in Education Program on Mathematics Performance Trends in Four Districts. Research Report # RR-74

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sirinides, Philip; Supovitz, Jonathan; Tognatta, Namrata; May, Henry

2013-01-01

Beginning in 2005, the GE Foundation initiated a commitment of expertise and financial resources to a set of urban school districts to improve public education and enhance student achievement in mathematics and science. This report analyzes the impacts of the GE Foundation commitment to the partner districts by examining trends in student…

Use Trends Indicated by Statistically Calibrated Recreational Sites in the National Forest System

Treesearch

Gary L. Tyre

1971-01-01

Trends in statistically sampled use of developed sites in the National Forest system indicate an average annual increase of 6.0 percent in the period 1966-69. The high variability of the measure precludes its use for projecting expected future use, but it can be important in gauging the credibility of annual use changes at both sampled and unsampled locations.

Energy profiles of four American states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jiamei

2018-06-01

Energy production and usage are the major portion of any economy. With the constant consumption of the polluting energy and the deteriorating environment, people are paying more and more attention to clean, renewable energy. Based on autoregressive model and TOPSIS, though analyzing the past data, this paper establishes the energy profiles of four American states from 1960 to 2009, predict the energy profiles for 2025 and 2050 and obtain the ideal criteria for future clean, renewable energy usage at last. This study finds that by analyzing and predicting the energy profile, human beings can better understand and grasp the trend of energy development and take appropriate measures to deal with future energy trends.

Professional Development Opportunities for Early Childhood Educators in Community-Based Child Care Centers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vesay, Joanne Palermo

2008-01-01

In this study, the staff development opportunities among early childhood educators in community-based, nonprofit child care centers were investigated. The trends for professional development and implications for future staff development were determined from data gathered from surveys completed by 12 lead teachers, 5 paraprofessionals, and 5…

Moral Development at the Crossroads: New Trends and Possible Futures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lapsley, Daniel; Carlo, Gustavo

2014-01-01

This article introduces a special section on moral development. We claim that the field is now undergoing a resurgence of theoretical and methodological innovation after the eclipse of paradigmatic moral stage theory. Although research on prosocial development, moral emotions, and social domain theory has sustained interest in moral development,…

Inclusive Leadership Development: Drawing From Pedagogies of Women's and General Leadership Development Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sugiyama, Keimei; Cavanagh, Kevin V.; van Esch, Chantal; Bilimoria, Diana; Brown, Cara

2016-01-01

Trends in extant literature suggest that more relational and identity-based leadership approaches are necessary for leadership that can harness the benefits of the diverse and globalized workforces of today and the future. In this study, we compared general leadership development programs (GLDPs) and women's leadership development programs (WLDPs)…

The Legacy of Emile Durkheim.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selkin, James

1983-01-01

Traces the development of the suicide prevention movement since the 1897 publication of Emile Durkheim's book "Suicide." Durkheim's theory of suicide is outlined, and implications for contemporary suicide prevention efforts are identified and discussed. Future trends in the development of suicide prevention centers are outlined.…

Flight Crew Integration (FCI) ISS Crew Comments Database & Products Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuh, Susan

2016-01-01

This Crew Debrief Data provides support for design and development of vehicles, hardware, requirements, procedures, processes, issue resolution, lessons learned, consolidation and trending for current Programs; and much of the data is also used to support development of future Programs.

Development of Water Quality Modeling in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation describes historical trends in water quality model development in the United States, reviews current efforts, and projects promising future directions. Water quality modeling has a relatively long history in the United States. While its origins lie in the work...

TELECOM 2000: An Exploration of the Long-Term Development of Telecommunications in Australia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Australian Telecommunications Commission, Melbourne.

This document is intended as a guide to directions in Australia's social, economic, and technical future as related to likely trends in the demand for telecommunication facilities in the early Twenty-First Century. From this exploration of the future of telecommunications, nine policy recommendations were made to guide telecommunication research,…

Educating for the Future in Family Life. Information Series No. 228.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpson, Elizabeth J.

This paper utilizes knowledge gained from work on future issues related to families, the work of futurists on social trends and technological development, and recent studies in home economics to draw conclusions regarding what people will need to know in the 1980s and beyond to be intelligent consumers and effective homemakers. The first of six…

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

PubMed Central

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2018-01-01

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data.

PubMed

Scanlon, Bridget R; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y; Müller Schmied, Hannes; van Beek, Ludovicus P H; Wiese, David N; Wada, Yoshihide; Long, Di; Reedy, Robert C; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F P

2018-02-06

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤-0.5 km 3 /y) and increasing (≥0.5 km 3 /y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km 3 /y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (-71 to 11 km 3 /y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71-82 km 3 /y) but negative for models (-450 to -12 km 3 /y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Future Carrier-Based Tactical Aircraft Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-03-01

This report describes an aircraft database which was developed to identify technology trends for several classes of tactical naval aircraft, including subsonic attack, supersonic fighter, and supersonic multimission aircraft classes. This study used ...

The outlook for aeronautics, 1980 - 2000 - Study report. [trends affecting civil air transportation and defense

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Trends in civil and military aviation in the period 1980-2000 are examined in terms of the role that NASA should play in aeronautical research and development during this period. Factors considered include the pattern of industry and government relationships, the character of the aircraft to be developed, and the technology advances that will be required as well as demographic, economic, and social factors. Trends are expressed in terms of the most probable developments in civil air transportation and air defense and several characteristically different directions for future development are defined. The longer term opportunities created by developments in air transporation extending into the next century are also examined. Within this framework, a preferred NASA role and a preferred set of objectives are formulated for the research and technology which should be undertaken by NASA during the period 1976-1985.

Using Future Trends to Inform Planning/Marketing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nichols, John V.

1995-01-01

Explores the reasons for incorporating trend analysis of librarianship into library planning and marketing. Key financial and technological issues are reviewed, and the techniques of environmental scanning and alternative scenario-building to incorporate future trends are discussed. (AEF)

Taking Charge of Your Career Path: A Future Trend of the Workforce

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiMattina, Cara; Ferris, Lisa-Anne

2013-01-01

Workplace trends portray relevant information regarding the present and future of the workforce and its members. These trends signify changes within the workplace regarding performance, retention, satisfaction and many other areas that affect the individual employee, as well as the organization and industry as a whole. Trends can be seen in…

Food allergy trends at the crossing among socio-economics, history and geography.

PubMed

Fiocchi, Alessandro; Dahdah, Lamia; Fierro, Vincenzo; Artesani, Maria C; Valluzzi, Rocco

2018-06-01

The epidemiology of food allergy did inspire theories on the reasons for the recent surge of the disease. We offer here a reasoned review on the relationships between the trajectories of human development and the trend of the food allergy epidemics. The exponential trend of the frequency of food allergy paralleled the explosive acceleration of the human development over the last few decades. Dietary factors have been indicated as responsible for these trends and targeted for potential preventive strategies. Other socio-economic factors have been related to this evolution: solar exposure, climate changes, structure of societies, reproductive choices and societal inequalities. The epidemiologic associations of food allergy suggest different causal theories. Future prevention strategies may be predicated not only on dietary interventions, but on wider programmes aimed to restore a human ecology promoting food tolerance.

Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

PubMed

Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

2010-04-01

This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

Recent trends in automobile recycling: An energy and economic assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curlee, T.R.; Das, S.; Rizy, C.G.

1994-03-01

Recent and anticipated trends in the material composition of domestic and imported automobiles and the increasing cost of landfilling the non-recyclable portion of automobiles (automobile shredder residue or ASR) pose questions about the future of automobile recycling. This report documents the findings of a study sponsored by the US Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Analysis to examine the impacts of these and other relevant trends on the life-cycle energy consumption of automobiles and on the economic viability of the domestic automobile recycling industry. More specifically, the study (1) reviewed the status of the automobile recycling industry in the Unitedmore » States, including the current technologies used to process scrapped automobiles and the challenges facing the automobile recycling industry; (2) examined the current status and future trends of automobile recycling in Europe and Japan, with the objectives of identifying ``lessons learned`` and pinpointing differences between those areas and the United States; (3) developed estimates of the energy system impacts of the recycling status quo and projections of the probable energy impacts of alternative technical and institutional approaches to recycling; and (4) identified the key policy questions that will determine the future economic viability of automobile shredder facilities in the United States.« less

The place of space technology in economic development: Reflections on present and future aspects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lebeau, A.; Reuter, K. E.

1980-01-01

The effects of the development of satellite applications on the orientation of the space effort were examined. The gap between available and exploited technology, the impact of the current economic climate and future trends are discussed. Europe's low level of public funding for its space effort, in comparison to other space powers, and the dangers of complacency regarding Europe's competitiveness in the space market are illustrated. A proposal for the general direction which Europe's future strategy must take if European independence in this field is to be preserved is presented.

Investigating gender violence in Jamaica.

PubMed

Spiring, Fred

2014-01-01

As Jamaica moves through implementation of their National Policy on Gender Equality and develops harassment legislation, this article attempts to investigate current levels and trends of gender-based violence in Jamaica. All analyses make use of existing data and data formats in developing performance indicators that illustrate the current state of gender violence in Jamaica. The analyses provide a baseline for the future assessment and comparison with internationally accepted gender-based violence indicators. All source data has been included to facilitate comparisons and discussions regarding related levels and trends of violence as well as addressing performance indicator effectiveness.

Glory of piezoelectric perovskites

PubMed Central

Uchino, Kenji

2015-01-01

This article reviews the history of piezoelectric perovskites and forecasts future development trends, including Uchino’s discoveries such as the Pb(Mg1/3Nb2/3)O3–PbTiO3 electrostrictor, Pb(Zn1/3Nb2/3)O3–PbTiO3 single crystal, (Pb, La)(Zr, Ti)O3 photostriction, and Pb(Zr, Ti)O3–Terfenol magnetoelectric composites. We discuss five key trends in the development of piezomaterials: performance to reliability, hard to soft, macro to nano, homo to hetero, and single to multi-functional. PMID:27877827

Polyimides: Thermally stable aerospace polymers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St.clair, A. K.

1980-01-01

An up to date review of available commercial and experimental high temperature polyimide resins which show potential for aerospace applications is presented. Current government research trends involving the use of polyimides as matrix resins for structural composites are discussed. Both the development of polyimides as adhesives for bonding metals and composites, and as films and coatings for use in an aerospace environment are reviewed. In addition, future trends for polyimides are proposed.

Social Dimension of Web 2.0 in Student Teacher Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ahrens, Andreas; Zascerinska, Jelena

2010-01-01

The modern issues of global developmental trends emphasize "a prime importance in sustainable development that is to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (Zimmermann, 2003, p. 9). Thus, the life necessity to develop the system of two perspectives, namely, external…

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise that account for this acceleration are needed. One such method is an empirical relationship between air temperatures and global sea levels. The air temperature-sea level rise relationship was applied to the 12 climate change projections selected by the California Climate Action Team to estimate future sea levels. The 95% confidence level developed from the historical data was extrapolated to estimate the uncertainties in the future projections. To create sea level rise trend probability distributions, a lognormal probability distribution and a generalized extreme value probability distribution are used. Parameter estimations for these distributions are subjective and inevitably involve uncertainties, which will be improved as more research is conducted in this area.

Fossil Fuels.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crank, Ron

This instructional unit is one of 10 developed by students on various energy-related areas that deals specifically with fossil fuels. Some topics covered are historic facts, development of fuels, history of oil production, current and future trends of the oil industry, refining fossil fuels, and environmental problems. Material in each unit may…

Proceeding for the Symposium on Research in Extension Education (Columbus, Ohio, May 16-18, 1989).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Cooperative Extension Service.

This proceeding includes 27 papers: "Tools to Support Information Delivery" (Miller); "Present Trends in European Agricultural Advisory Services" (Nitsch); "The Look of Extension in the Future" (Boyle); "Assessing Needs for Organizational Development, Staff Development, and Management during Periods of…

Past and Future Trends in Automobile Sales

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-07-01

The report uses the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark I) and its associates data bases to discuss and analyze past and future trends in the automobile market. Part A analyzes the historical trends, generally covering the 1958-1976 period, ...

Geographical Education in Brazil: Past and Present in "The Country of the Future"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lastoria, Andrea Coelho; Papadimitriou, Fivos

2012-01-01

This paper examines the past, present and future context of geographical education in Brazil and the issues that, in our view, are relevant to understand its ebb and flow in the complex reality of the country. Various trends have affected the development of geographical education since the 1970s. Two pillars of training and school practice reflect…

Enlargement Futures Project: Information and Communication Technologies. Final Report. Enlargement Futures Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gourova, Elissaveta; Burgelman, Jean-Claude; Bogdanowicz, Marc; Herrmann, Christoph

Trends in the development and utilization of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the 13 candidate countries for admission into the European Union(the CC13) were examined by a 12-member panel of experts and its staff. The analysis focused on the following topics: (1) the communication infrastructure available in the CC13; (2) issues…

Future Scenario Development from Disruptive Exploration Technologies and Business Models in the U.S. Geothermal Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wall, Anna

With recent trends toward intermittent renewable energy sources in the U.S., the geothermal industry in its current form faces a crossroad: adapt, disrupt, or be left behind. Strategic planning with scenario analysis offers a framework to characterize plausible views of the future given current trends - as well as disruptions to the status quo. To inform strategic planning in the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technology Office (GTO), the Geothermal Vision Study is tasked with offering data-driven pathways for future geothermal development. Scenario analysis is a commonly used tool in private industry corporate strategic planning as a way to prioritizemore » and manage large investments in light of uncertainty and risk. Since much of the uncertainty and risk in a geothermal project is believed to occur within early stage exploration and drilling, this paper focuses on the levers (technical and financial) within the exploration process that can be pulled to affect change. Given these potential changes, this work first qualitatively explores potential shifts to the geothermal industry. Future work within the Geothermal Vision Study will incorporate these qualitative scenarios quantitatively, in competition with other renewable and conventional energy industries.« less

Counseling in Turkey: An Evolving Field

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stockton, Rex; Guneri, Oya Yerin

2011-01-01

This article provides a brief history of counseling and addresses the current issues and future trends of counseling in Turkey. Special emphasis is placed on the factors that impede the development of school counseling as a discipline.

Trends in Personalized Therapies in Oncology: The (Venture) Capitalist’s Perspective

PubMed Central

Fleck, Roman; Bach, Daniel

2012-01-01

Oncology is one of the most important fields of personalized medicine as a majority of efforts in this field have recently centered on targeted cancer drug development. New tools are continuously being developed that promise to make cancer treatment more efficacious while causing fewer side effects. Like most industries, the biopharmaceutical industry is also following certain global trends and these are analyzed in this article. As academia and industry are mutually dependent on each other, researchers in the field should be aware of those trends and the immediate consequences for their research. It is important for the future of this field that there is a healthy relationship among all interested parties as the challenges of personalized medicine are becoming ever more complex. PMID:25562700

Development, Problems and Countermeasures of Chinese Racing Car Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J. J.

2018-05-01

In recent years, motor car racing has developed rapidly in China. However, under the background of maximum vehicle production and car ownership in China, the racing car industry has a long way compared with that of the developed countries. The paper analyzes the current situation and summarizes the problems of Chinese racing car industry with supporting documentation and review of the literature. The future trend of the development of car industry in China is discussed. On the basis of the analysis and prediction, the strategies to respond to the future racing car industry in China are presented.

Fertility and Infertility.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orgebin-Crist, Marie-Claire; And Others

In this report, emphasis is placed on major research developments in the reproductive sciences, their impact on the health of individuals as well as on that of society, and on current trends that may provide new opportunities for future research in fertility and infertility. In the first section, major developments in the reproductive sciences are…

The legacy of Emile Durkheim.

PubMed

Selkin, J

1983-01-01

The development of the suicide prevention movement since the 1897 publication of Emile Dukheim's book Suicide is briefly traced. Durkheim's theory of suicide is outlined, and implications for contemporary suicide prevention efforts are identified and discussed. Future trends in the development of suicide prevention centers and in the national organization of suicidology are outlined.

Adult Career Development: Concepts, Issues, and Practices. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lea, H. Daniel, Ed.; Leibowitz, Zandy B., Ed.

This book contains 23 chapters organized into seven sections that center around the following themes: (1) theories and concepts; (2) strategies and methods; (3) target populations; (4) settings; (5) training programs; (6) evaluation and accountability; and (7) future trends. The following papers are included: "Adult Development Theories: Ways to…

Current Trends and Future Tendencies: Developing Sustainable Assessment Cultures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dobson, Stephen

2012-01-01

Schools and their development as sustainable assessment cultures requires insight into the interests and role of different stakeholders: school policy makers, teachers and their teaching teams, principals, parents, pupils and the local community. Researchers are not immediately included in this list, but as external advisers they can play a…

Trend of airplane flight characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Von Koppen, Joachim

1933-01-01

This report describes the development of airplane characteristics since the war and indicates the direction development should take in the immediate future. Some of the major topics include: the behavior of an airplane about its lateral, vertical, and longitudinal axes. Behavior at large angles of attack and landing characteristics are also included.

Trends in financing and availability of capital

Treesearch

Donald G. Schink

1980-01-01

The past, present and future of recreation enterprise financing is developed in this paper. Developers need to utilize all available methods of financing sound projects. The long-term solution to the problems depend on better information, improved educational programs, and a loan program tailored to the needs of this industry.

The Consumer Movement in Higher Education: Past, Present and Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stein, Ronald H.

1980-01-01

Assesses the development of the model of the student as a consumer of higher education. A short history of the consumer movement and the educational consumer movement is presented. The current status of the latter is reviewed and compared with developing trends in educational consumer rights. (RC)

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Trends in telemedicine utilizing artificial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacis, Danica Mitch M.; Subido, Edwin D. C.; Bugtai, Nilo T.

2018-02-01

With the growth and popularity of the utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in several fields and industries, studies in the field of medicine have begun to implement its capabilities in handling and analyzing data to telemedicine. With the challenges in the implementation of telemedicine, there has been a need to expand its capabilities and improve procedures to be specialized to solve specific problems. The versatility and flexibility of both AI and telemedicine gave the endless possibilities for development and these can be seen in the literature reviewed in this paper. The trends in the development of the utilization of this technology can be classified in to four: patient monitoring, healthcare information technology, intelligent assistance diagnosis, and information analysis collaboration. Each trend will be discussed and presented with examples of recent literature and the problems they aim to address. Related references will also be tabulated and categorized to see the future and potential of this current trend in telemedicine.

Physician's emerging roles relating to trends in health information technology.

PubMed

David Johnson, J

2014-08-12

Objective: To determine the new roles that physicians will adopt in the near future to adjust to accelerating trends from managed care to outcome-based practice to health care reform to health information technology to the evolving role of health consumers. Methods: Trends and related developments concerning the changing roles of physicians based on prior literature reviews. Results: Six possible roles, traditional, gatekeeper, coach, navigator, informatician and one voice among many, are discussed in terms of physician's centrality, patient autonomy, decision-making and uncertainty, information seeking, satisfaction and outcomes, particularly those related to compliance. Conclusion: A greater understanding of these emerging roles could lead to more efficacious outcomes in our ever changing, increasingly complex medical system. Patients often have little understanding of emerging trends that lead to the development of specialized roles such as hospitalist and navigators and, relatedly, the evolving roles of physicians.

Water quality trends in the Blackwater River watershed, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Jessica; Welsh, Stuart A.; Anderson, James T.; Fortney, Ronald H.

2015-01-01

An understanding of historic and current water quality is needed to manage and improve aquatic communities within the Blackwater River watershed, WV. The Blackwater River, which historically offered an excellent Salvelinus fontinalis (Brook Trout) fishery, has been affected by logging, coal mining, use of off-road vehicles, and land development. Using information-theoretic methods, we examined trends in water quality at 12 sites in the watershed for the 14 years of 1980–1993. Except for Beaver Creek, downward trends in acidity and upward trends in alkalinity, conductivity, and hardness were consistent with decreases in hydrogen ion concentration. Water-quality trends for Beaver Creek were inconsistent with the other sites and reflect ongoing coal-mining influences. Dissolved oxygen trended downward, possibly due to natural conditions, but remained above thresholds that would be detrimental to aquatic life. Water quality changed only slightly within the watershed from 1980–1993, possibly reflecting few changes in development and land uses during this time. These data serve as a baseline for future water-quality studies and may help to inform management planning.

Lessons learned from trend analysis of Shuttle Payload Processing problem reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heuser, Robert E.; Pepper, Richard E., Jr.; Smith, Anthony M.

1989-01-01

In the wake of the Challenger accident, NASA has placed an increasing emphasis on trend analysis techniques. These analyses provide meaningful insights into system and hardware status, and also develop additional lessons learned from historical data to aid in the design and operation of future space systems. This paper presents selected results from such a trend analysis study that was conducted on the problem report data files for the Shuttle Payload Processing activities. Specifically, the results shown are for the payload canister system which interfaces with and transfers payloads from their processing facilities to the orbiter.

Innovation and new trends in critical trauma disease.

PubMed

Chico-Fernández, M; Terceros-Almanza, L L; Mudarra-Reche, C C

2015-04-01

The management of critical trauma disease (CTD) has always trends the trends in military war experiences. These conflicts have historically revolutionized clinical concepts, clinical practice guidelines and medical devices, and have marked future lines of research and aspects of training and learning in severe trauma care. Moreover, in the civil setting, the development of intensive care, technological advances and the testing of our healthcare systems in the management of multiple victims, hasve also led to a need for innovation in our trauma care systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

Feasibility Analysis of Developing Cross-border Network Education in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Jun

In the era of economic globalization, strengthen of international cooperation on network education is a general trend. Although China has not made commitments about the market access and national treatment of cross-border supply in Schedule of Specific Commitments on Services, the basic conditions of network education development in China have been met. The Chinese government should formulate strategies for the development of cross-border network education and take relevant measures to implement them. In the near future, the carrying out of cross-border network education in China will become an irreversible trend, and will possess broad prospect with the advance of globalization of Chinese education.

Pragmatic treatment planning for the older dentate patient.

PubMed

Burke, F M; Hayes, M

2016-12-01

Population ageing is a progressive trend in most developed nations, including Ireland. Alongside this trend, there has been a concomitant decrease in tooth loss among Irish adults (Whelton, 2007). As a result, there will be more dentate older patients presenting for care. Future treatment strategies will be based on patient demand, clinician skill set, pragmatism, future planning and cost-effectiveness. This article presents the use of minimally invasive concepts in the management of older patients. As well as describing these principles, two cases treated by the staff and students of Cork University Dental School and Hospital are presented as examples. Older patients can be provided with good aesthetic, functional outcomes using the principles of minimally invasive dentistry. Futhermore, these treatment options are less likely to fail catastrophically in future years, resulting in tooth loss and edentulousness in advanced years when adaptation may be challenging. Treatment choices for older adults should be as evidence based an pragmatic as possible, with a view to impact of future failure.

Spatial heterogeneity in the timing of birch budburst in response to future climate warming in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caffarra, Amelia; Zottele, Fabio; Gleeson, Emily; Donnelly, Alison

2014-05-01

In order to predict the impact of future climate warming on trees it is important to quantify the effect climate has on their development. Our understanding of the phenological response to environmental drivers has given rise to various mathematical models of the annual growth cycle of plants. These models simulate the timing of phenophases by quantifying the relationship between development and its triggers, typically temperature. In addition, other environmental variables have an important role in determining the timing of budburst. For example, photoperiod has been shown to have a strong influence on phenological events of a number of tree species, including Betula pubescens (birch). A recently developed model for birch (DORMPHOT), which integrates the effects of temperature and photoperiod on budburst, was applied to future temperature projections from a 19-member ensemble of regional climate simulations (on a 25 km grid) generated as part of the ENSEMBLES project, to simulate the timing of birch budburst in Ireland each year up to the end of the present century. Gridded temperature time series data from the climate simulations were used as input to the DORMPHOT model to simulate future budburst timing. The results showed an advancing trend in the timing of birch budburst over most regions in Ireland up to 2100. Interestingly, this trend appeared greater in the northeast of the country than in the southwest, where budburst is currently relatively early. These results could have implications for future forest planning, species distribution modeling, and the birch allergy season.

Sustainable Development. Teacher's Guide to World Resources. Comprehensive Coursework on the Global Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Sarah A.

This teacher's guide presents teaching suggestions and presentation materials about sustainable development, important trends that could lead to human and environmental disasters in the future if they continue unchecked, and how each country has a different path to sustainable development. The lesson is divided into six parts and may be completed…

Framing International Development Education in the Post-2015 Era: Suggestions for Scholars and Policymakers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weidman, John C.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to build a series of frameworks for understanding social and educational changes that have the potential to inform the preparation of future international development education scholars and practitioners. It begins with a description of the main trends driving contemporary development education. This is followed by a…

Kinesiology/Biomechanics: Perspectives and Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atwater, Anne E.

1980-01-01

Past and recent developments and future directions in kinesiology and biomechanics are reviewed. Similarities and differences between these two areas are clarified. The areas of kinesiology and biomechanics have distinct unique qualities and should be treated as separate disciplines. (CJ)

Developing for the future: hometown USA.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-09-01

In a trend that continues to build, citizens : across the country are joining forces locally to : address environmental issues that affect their : health, natural resources, and the quality of : life in their communities. Groups of people are : takin...

The FORE-SCE model: a practical approach for projecting land cover change using scenario-based modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Drummond, Mark A.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit, historic, current, and projected land use and land cover data. The U.S. Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973–2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States. The newly developed FORE-SCE model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land cover change through 2020 for multiple plausible scenarios. Projected proportions of future land use were initially developed, and then sited on the lands with the highest potential for supporting that land use and land cover using a statistically based stochastic allocation procedure. Three scenarios of 2020 land cover were mapped for the western Great Plains in the US. The model provided realistic, high-resolution, scenario-based land-cover products suitable for multiple applications, including studies of climate and weather variability, carbon dynamics, and regional hydrology.

Software Past, Present, and Future: Views from Government, Industry and Academia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holcomb, Lee; Page, Jerry; Evangelist, Michael

2000-01-01

Views from the NASA CIO NASA Software Engineering Workshop on software development from the past, present, and future are presented. The topics include: 1) Software Past; 2) Software Present; 3) NASA's Largest Software Challenges; 4) 8330 Software Projects in Industry Standish Groups 1994 Report; 5) Software Future; 6) Capability Maturity Model (CMM): Software Engineering Institute (SEI) levels; 7) System Engineering Quality Also Part of the Problem; 8) University Environment Trends Will Increase the Problem in Software Engineering; and 9) NASA Software Engineering Goals.

Structures Technology for Future Aerospace Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K.; Venneri, Samuel L.; Paul, Donald B.; Hopkins, Mark A.

2000-01-01

An overview of structures technology for future aerospace systems is given. Discussion focuses on developments in component technologies that will improve the vehicle performance, advance the technology exploitation process, and reduce system life-cycle costs. The component technologies described are smart materials and structures, multifunctional materials and structures, affordable composite structures, extreme environment structures, flexible load bearing structures, and computational methods and simulation-based design. The trends in each of the component technologies are discussed and the applicability of these technologies to future aerospace vehicles is described.

The Challenge of the Future. Future Trends in Adult and Continuing Technical and Vocational Education. An International Symposium (Berlin, Germany, October 16-20, 1995).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Hamburg (Germany). Inst. for Education.

This report on an international symposium on the strengthening of the development and improvement of vocational education begins with a description of UNEVOC, the International Project on Technical and Vocational Education. Section 2 presents discussions of the following topics: adult and continuing technical and vocational education and its…

Delineating an Educational Policy Framework for the Developing Nations in Meeting the Emerging Global Challenges by Year 2050

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sedere, Upali M.

2008-01-01

School based general education aught to be a future oriented subject. However, over the years, due to parental and grand-parental generations setting policies of education for the younger generation, education is always more past oriented than future oriented. This trend did not cause much of a problem when the change over time was moderate. As…

What Will the Western Wildlands Be Like in the Year 2000...Future Perfect or Future Imperfect?

Treesearch

Carol L. Rice

1987-01-01

Profound changes have taken place in the western wildlands during the 20th century that will have great impact on land management policy and operations. Wildlands are being developed. Reduction of fire has altered plant species relationships in terms of dominance and density. The number of ignitions will continue to increase. The trends unchanged will result in greater...

Target 88, Shaping the Future. Development Report for 1986-1987. Development Plans for 1987-1988. Annual Development Conference Proceedings (Pittsburg, Kansas, August 19, 1987).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pittsburg State Univ., KS.

Proceedings of the 1987 Development Conference of Pittsburg State University, Kansas, are presented. The conference reported on the private support program for fiscal year (FY) 1986-1987 and evaluated national development trends and comparisons with peer institutions. Goals of the private support program for 1987-1988 were also reviewed. Contents…

Current Trends in the Developed Countries and Likely Future Developments in Information Science and Policies. Suggestions for Curricula Designers in Developing Countries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tell, Bjorn V.

In response to technological developments that are bringing about changes in the information field, this paper focuses on factors that should be considered in planning for curriculum changes in library education in the developing nations. The paper comprises information on: (1) the background of the study; (2) the importance of scientific journal…

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Dental Education: Trends and Assumptions for the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Sinkford, Jeanne C.

1987-01-01

Dental educational institutions, as components of university systems, must develop strategic plans for program development, resource allocation, evaluation, and continued financial support. This dynamic process will be accomplished in a competitive academic arena where program excellence and program relevance are key issues in the game of survival. This article focuses on issues and trends that form the basis for planning assumptions and initiatives into the next decade and into the 21st century. This is our challenge, this is our mission if we are to be catalysts for change in the future. PMID:3560255

Overview of hybrid electric vehicle trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Haomiao; Yang, Weidong; Chen, Yingshu; Wang, Yun

2018-04-01

With the increase of per capita energy consumption, environmental pollution is worsening. Using new alternative sources of energy, reducing the use of conventional fuel-powered engines is imperative. Due to the short period, pure electric vehicles cannot be mass-produced and there are many problems such as imperfect charging facilities. Therefore, the development of hybrid electric vehicles is particularly important in a certain period. In this paper, the classification of hybrid vehicle, research status of hybrid vehicle and future development trends of hybrid vehicles is introduced. It is conducive to the public understanding of hybrid electric vehicles, which has a certain theoretical significance.

Bio-Functional Design, Application and Trends in Metallic Biomaterials

PubMed Central

Yang, Ke; Zhou, Changchun; Fan, Hongsong; Fan, Yujiang; Jiang, Qing; Song, Ping; Fan, Hongyuan; Chen, Yu; Zhang, Xingdong

2017-01-01

Introduction of metals as biomaterials has been known for a long time. In the early development, sufficient strength and suitable mechanical properties were the main considerations for metal implants. With the development of new generations of biomaterials, the concepts of bioactive and biodegradable materials were proposed. Biological function design is very import for metal implants in biomedical applications. Three crucial design criteria are summarized for developing metal implants: (1) mechanical properties that mimic the host tissues; (2) sufficient bioactivities to form bio-bonding between implants and surrounding tissues; and (3) a degradation rate that matches tissue regeneration and biodegradability. This article reviews the development of metal implants and their applications in biomedical engineering. Development trends and future perspectives of metallic biomaterials are also discussed. PMID:29271916

Bio-Functional Design, Application and Trends in Metallic Biomaterials.

PubMed

Yang, Ke; Zhou, Changchun; Fan, Hongsong; Fan, Yujiang; Jiang, Qing; Song, Ping; Fan, Hongyuan; Chen, Yu; Zhang, Xingdong

2017-12-22

Introduction of metals as biomaterials has been known for a long time. In the early development, sufficient strength and suitable mechanical properties were the main considerations for metal implants. With the development of new generations of biomaterials, the concepts of bioactive and biodegradable materials were proposed. Biological function design is very import for metal implants in biomedical applications. Three crucial design criteria are summarized for developing metal implants: (1) mechanical properties that mimic the host tissues; (2) sufficient bioactivities to form bio-bonding between implants and surrounding tissues; and (3) a degradation rate that matches tissue regeneration and biodegradability. This article reviews the development of metal implants and their applications in biomedical engineering. Development trends and future perspectives of metallic biomaterials are also discussed.

Status of Solid State Lighting Product Development and Future Trends for General Illumination.

PubMed

Katona, Thomas M; Pattison, P Morgan; Paolini, Steve

2016-06-07

After decades of research and development on fabrication of efficient light-emitting diodes (LEDs) throughout the visible spectrum, LED-based lighting has reached unparalleled performance with respect to energy efficiency and has become the light source for virtually all new lighting products being designed today. The development of the core light sources and their subsequent integration into lighting systems continue to present unique challenges and opportunities for product designers. We review these systems and the current development status, as well as provide context for the trends in solid state lighting that are leading to the development of value-added lighting solutions that extend the domain of lighting beyond light generation, into fields as diverse as communications, healthcare, and agricultural production.

Electricity from biomass: A development strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1992-04-01

The purpose of this document is to review the current status of biomass power technology and to evaluate the future directions for development that could significantly enhance the contribution of biomass power to U.S. production of electricity. This document reviews the basic principles of biomass electric systems, the previous contributions of industry and the National Biomass Energy Programs to technology development, and the options for future technology development. It discusses the market for biomass electric technology and future needs for electric power production to help establish a market-oriented development strategy. It projects trends in the performance and cost of the technology and examines the changing dynamics of the power generation market place to evaluate specific opportunities for biomass power development. In a separate document, the Biomass Power Program Five Year R&D Plan, the details of schedules, funding, and roles of participating R&D organizations within the R&D program funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are presented. In evaluating the future directions for research and development, two cases are examined.

Development of a Geographic Information System (GIS) tool for the preliminary assessment of the effects of predicted sea level and tidal change on transportation infrastructure.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-09-01

In this project, researchers from the University of Florida developed a sketch planning tool that can be used to conduct statewide and regional assessments of transportation facilities potentially vulnerable to sea level change trends. Possible futur...

Developing Appellate Advocacy Programs at Wake Forest University's School of Law

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, George K.

1977-01-01

The development of the appellate advocacy programs at a medium-sized law school with a limited budget is described. Discussed are prior experience with similar programs at Wake Forest, revision of the legal bibliography course, organization of the Moot Court Board and its programs, and future trend projections for the Board. (LBH)

Developments in U.S. Alternative Fuel Markets

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The alternative fueled vehicle (AFV)/alternative fuels industry experienced a number of market-related changes in the second half of the 1990s. This article describes each of the alternative transportation fuels and the AFVs in detail. It provides information on the development to date and looks at trends likely to occur in the future.

Ohio Occupational Research and Development Coordinating Unit. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio State Dept. of Education, Columbus.

This final report explains the purpose of the Ohio Occupational Research and Development Coordinating Unit and its activities and accomplishments from its inception July 1, 1965, to August 31, 1969. The three specific objectives of the Ohio Unit are: (1) to gather data concerning employment, emerging occupational trends and future job projections,…

Reflections on the Future Development of Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Paris (France).

Designed to explore the prospects for the development of education throughout the 1980s and 1990s, this study looked at general trends in education in the course of the 1970s, socio-economic evolution in the world, and foreseeable advances in science and technology, in order to outline the priorities for international cooperation. Within the…

The outcomes of complementary and alternative medicine use among pregnant and birthing women: current trends and future directions.

PubMed

Steel, Amie; Adams, Jon; Sibbritt, David; Broom, Alex

2015-06-01

Complementary and alternative medicine is used by a substantial number of pregnant women and maternity care providers are often faced with the task of ensuring women are using safe and effective treatments while respecting a woman's right to autonomous decision-making. In the era of evidence-based medicine maternity health professionals are expected to draw upon the best available evidence when making clinical decisions and providing health advice. This review will outline the current trends in research evidence associated with the outcomes of complementary and alternative medicine use amongst pregnant and birthing women as well as highlight some potential directions for future development in this important yet largely unknown topic in contemporary maternity care.

[Genetically modified food (food derived from biotechnology): current and future trends in public acceptance and safety assessment].

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Imai, Hirohisa; Nakao, Hiroyuki; Tsukino, Hiromasa; Kuroda, Yoshiki; Katoh, Takahiko

2002-11-01

Current and future trends regarding genetically modified (GM) crops and food stuffs were reviewed, with a particular focus on public acceptance and safety assessment. While GM foods, foods derived from biotechnology, are popular with growers and producers, they are still a matter of some concern among consumers. In fact, our recent surveys showed that Japanese consumers had become uneasy about the potential health risks of genetically modified foods. Many Japanese consumers have only vague ideas about the actual health risks, and they appear to be making decisions simply by rejecting GM food because of non-informed doubts. Although the debate about GM foods has increased in the mass media and scientific journals, few articles concerning direct studies on the potential toxicity or adverse health effects of GM foods have appeared. The roles of relevant international regulatory bodies in ensuring that GM crops and food are safe are therefore have summarized. Finally, the current debate on use of GM crops in agriculture and future trends for development of GM foods with enriched nutrients, better functionality, and medicinal ingredients, which will be of direct benefit to the consumer, are covered.

Paradigm Shift or Annoying Distraction

PubMed Central

Spallek, H.; O’Donnell, J.; Clayton, M.; Anderson, P.; Krueger, A.

2010-01-01

Web 2.0 technologies, known as social media, social technologies or Web 2.0, have emerged into the mainstream. As they grow, these new technologies have the opportunity to influence the methods and procedures of many fields. This paper focuses on the clinical implications of the growing Web 2.0 technologies. Five developing trends are explored: information channels, augmented reality, location-based mobile social computing, virtual worlds and serious gaming, and collaborative research networks. Each trend is discussed based on their utilization and pattern of use by healthcare providers or healthcare organizations. In addition to explorative research for each trend, a vignette is presented which provides a future example of adoption. Lastly each trend lists several research challenge questions for applied clinical informatics. PMID:23616830

Data Acquisition and Mass Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vande Vyvre, P.

2004-08-01

The experiments performed at supercolliders will constitute a new challenge in several disciplines of High Energy Physics and Information Technology. This will definitely be the case for data acquisition and mass storage. The microelectronics, communication, and computing industries are maintaining an exponential increase of the performance of their products. The market of commodity products remains the largest and the most competitive market of technology products. This constitutes a strong incentive to use these commodity products extensively as components to build the data acquisition and computing infrastructures of the future generation of experiments. The present generation of experiments in Europe and in the US already constitutes an important step in this direction. The experience acquired in the design and the construction of the present experiments has to be complemented by a large R&D effort executed with good awareness of industry developments. The future experiments will also be expected to follow major trends of our present world: deliver physics results faster and become more and more visible and accessible. The present evolution of the technologies and the burgeoning of GRID projects indicate that these trends will be made possible. This paper includes a brief overview of the technologies currently used for the different tasks of the experimental data chain: data acquisition, selection, storage, processing, and analysis. The major trends of the computing and networking technologies are then indicated with particular attention paid to their influence on the future experiments. Finally, the vision of future data acquisition and processing systems and their promise for future supercolliders is presented.

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Seven Future Trends in the Workplace.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satterlee, Brian; Craig, Will

In the future, seven trends--already firmly established--will become dominant in the world of work. Those trends are as follows: (1) middle management positions will continue to be cut; (2) project teams will be assembled for a single purpose; (3) more women will have executive leadership roles; (4) organizations will continue to increase their…

Toward a More Equitable Future: The Trends and Challenges Facing America's Latino Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foxen, Patricia; Mather, Mark

2016-01-01

Rapid demographic change is transforming the landscape of America in exciting and challenging ways. This report, an update of the 2010 publication "America's Future: Latino Child Well-Being in Numbers and Trends," provides a comprehensive overview of national and state-level trends in the characteristics and well-being of Hispanic…

SO-QT: Collaborative Tool to Project the Future Space Object Population

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stupl, Jan

2017-01-01

Earth orbit gets increasingly congested, a challenge to space operators, both in governments and industry. We present a web tool that provides: 1) data on todays and the historic space object environments, by aggregating object-specific tracking data; and 2) future trends through a collaboration platform to collect information on planed launches. The collaborative platform enables experts to pool and compare their data in order to generate future launch scenarios. The tool is intended to support decision makers and mission designers while they investigate future missions and scholars as they develop strategies for space traffic management.

On the Edge: Three Years after the Report of the Commission on the Future of the North Carolina Community College System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MDC, Inc., Chapel Hill, NC.

In 1989, the Commission on the Future of the North Carolina Community College System adopted a series of recommendations to improve the operation, funding, and economic and social returns of the state's community colleges. This report looks at each of the major challenges of the Commission, reviews trends and developments that may have altered the…

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 4: Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Four background scenarios that relate to alternative states of society in the next 25 to 50 years are described. The scenarios were developed for use in analyzing and evaluating alternative future intercity transportation technologies. The scenarios are based, in part, on discussions contained in the issue papers and, in part, on separate analysis of social and economic trends considered relevant for the evolution of intercity transportation.

The influence of environment and energy macro surroundings on the development of tourism in the 21st century.

PubMed

Jovicić, Dobrica

2012-06-01

Trying to anticipate the future of tourism may be a particularly fraught task. However, this does not mean that trying to predict the future of tourism is not without value. From a business perspective, examining the future enables firms to anticipate new business conditions and develop new strategies. From a destination perspective, reflections on the future enable consideration of how to maintain or improve the qualities of a destination. The paper is focused on an analysis of the impacts of the energy and ecological macro environments on tourism trends in 21st century. Mass international tourism has thrived on the abundant and cheap supply of energy, and this may be about to change as the world moves towards 'Peak Oil'. The resultant scarcity and high price of all energy fuels will produce changes in human activities, specifically in tourism. The basis of the health of the economy is the health of the environment. Therefore issues of global environmental changes are increasingly influencing consideration of trends in tourism. In this looming transitional era tourism needs to make some dramatic changes to harmonize with the new realities of a post-energy world affected additionaly by global warming and other environmental changes.

About the Federal Energy Management Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richard Kidd

2009-04-23

Richard Kidd, Program Manager for the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP), presents a discussion on FEMP direction and its future role, federal funding trends, future financing trends, and Earth Day observations.

The potential impact of MMICs on future satellite communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, Vernon E.

1988-01-01

This is the Final Report representing the results of a 17-month study on the future trends and requirements of Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits (MMIC) for space communication applications. Specifically this report identifies potential space communication applications of MMICs, assesses the impact of MMIC on the classes of systems that were identified, determines the present status and probable 10-year growth in capability of required MMIC and competing technologies, identifies the applications most likely to benefit from further MMIC development and presents recommendations for NASA development activities to address the needs of these applications.

The potential impact of MMICs on future satellite communications: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, Vernon E.

1988-01-01

This Executive Summary presents the results of a 17-month study on the future trends and requirments for Monolithic Microwave Integrated circuits (MMIC) for space communication application. Specifically this report identifies potential space communication applications of MMICs, assesses the impact of MMIC on the classes of systems that were identified, determines the present status and probable 10-year growth in capability of required MMIC and competing technologies, identifies the applications most likely to benefit from further MMIC development, and presents recommendations for NASA development activities to address the needs of these applications.

Present and future development of remote sensing in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, H. R.; Jiang, J. S.; Hu, D. Y.; Wang, C. Y.

This paper summarizes the program that has been established during the past decade and the present situation in remote sensing techniques and applications in China. Special attention is given to the recent results that have been achieved in remote sensing applications, such as the successful applications of aerial photography and satellite images to a wide range of grassland surveys in Xinjians province, and to real time flood monitoring in the Tons-Tins Lake drainage basin in 1985, etc. The paper also touches upon the future trends for developing remote sensing in China.

Large-scale educational telecommunications systems for the US: An analysis of educational needs and technological opportunities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, R. P.; Singh, J. P.; Rothenberg, D.; Robinson, B. E.

1975-01-01

The needs to be served, the subsectors in which the system might be used, the technology employed, and the prospects for future utilization of an educational telecommunications delivery system are described and analyzed. Educational subsectors are analyzed with emphasis on the current status and trends within each subsector. Issues which affect future development, and prospects for future use of media, technology, and large-scale electronic delivery within each subsector are included. Information on technology utilization is presented. Educational telecommunications services are identified and grouped into categories: public television and radio, instructional television, computer aided instruction, computer resource sharing, and information resource sharing. Technology based services, their current utilization, and factors which affect future development are stressed. The role of communications satellites in providing these services is discussed. Efforts to analyze and estimate future utilization of large-scale educational telecommunications are summarized. Factors which affect future utilization are identified. Conclusions are presented.

Prospects for Coastal Resource Conservation in the 1980s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, John; McCreary, Scott

1980-01-01

Evaluates the implementation of the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 and postulates future trends in the development and protection of these areas. Emphasis is upon approaches used by various states in carrying out their coastal zone management programs. (WB)

Current Status and Future Trends of Diversity Initiatives in the Workplace: Diversity Experts' Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wentling, Rose Mary; Palma-Rivas, Nilda

1998-01-01

In-depth interviews with 12 diversity experts identified organizational and individual barriers inhibiting development of a diverse workforce. Primary reasons for diversity initiatives included improving productivity, enhancing social responsibility, and addressing legal concerns. (SK)

Teacher Education Futures: Today's Trends, Tomorrow's Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aubusson, Peter; Schuck, Sandy

2013-01-01

Education is facing significant political and contextual challenges that will impact its future. This study employs a Delphi methodology to investigate teacher educators' views of current trends and their consequences for teacher education futures. Interviews were conducted with a sample of expert teacher educators drawn from eight countries. This…

Future trends in commercial and military systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, F. E.

Commercial and military satellite communication systems are addressed, with a review of current applications and typical communication characteristics of the space and earth segments. Drivers for the development of future commercial systems include: the pervasion of digital techniques and services, growing orbit and frequency congestion, demand for more entertainment, and the large potential market for commercial 'roof-top' service. For military systems, survivability, improved flexibility, and the need for service to small mobile terminals are the principal factors involved. Technical trends include the use of higher frequency bands, multibeam antennas and a significant increase in the application of onboard processing. Military systems will employ a variety of techniques to counter both physical and electronic threats. The use of redundant transmission paths is a particularly effective approach. Successful implementation requires transmission standards to achieve the required interoperability among the pertinent networks. For both the military and commercial sectors, the trend toward larger numbers of terminals and more complex spacecraft is still persisting.

Assessing the effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, S.; Zheng, C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is expected to be more vulnerable in the future due to climate change coupled with rapid urbanization. Thus, protecting future groundwater resources under the impact of urbanization and climate change is necessary towards more sustainable groundwater resource development. This study is intended to shed lights on how water managers may plan for the adverse effects of urbanization and climate change on groundwater quality. A new approach is presented in which the groundwater vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is employed as a constraint to urban expansion. An original form of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) and a revised LTM simulation are applied to model the urbanization. The results indicated that there would be a notable and uneven urban growth between 2010 and 2050. Future groundwater vulnerability is expected to shift significantly under future climate change scenarios. The results of the revised LTM project more urban expansion in the central regions of China, while those of the original LTM project urban expansion in throughout China, although the two projections have the same areas of expansion. The urban expansion simulated by the original LTM follows the historical trend under the drivers of socioeconomic, political and geographic factors. However, the revised LTM drives the urban expansion to the regions with relatively lower groundwater vulnerability, in contrast to the historical trend. This study demonstrates that the integration of LTM and future groundwater vulnerability in the urban planning can better protect the groundwater resource and promote more sustainable socioeconomic development. The methodology developed in this study provides water managers and city planners a useful groundwater management tool for mitigating the risks associated with rapid urbanization and climate change.

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year survival rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Jes

2009-01-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi year ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first year sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. Here we develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of first year and multi year ice control the mean state, variability, and trends in ice area and volume.

Challenges for the New Century: Trends That Will Influence Kentucky's Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith-Mello, Michal; Childress, Michael T.; Watts, Amy; Watkins, John F.

Trends that will influence Kentucky's future were examined along with policy options for responding to those trends. According to the analysis, the effects of the new economy on Kentucky has been mixed. Although many Kentuckians have benefited from the new economy, the state's least educated and poorest residents are falling further behind the…

Brainstorming transformative solutions - Sustainable Puerto ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This narrative scenario depicts one of many possible futures for the island of Puerto Rico in which the goals of energy and food supply resilience have been met. Set in the year 2080, the narrative describes a series of hypothetical (but possible) events, a set of proactive governance actions and policies, and citizen responses to those events and interventions. The narrative is based on expert-opinion and extrapolation of trends in energy markets, technology, and policy development, as well as recent events in Puerto Rico. This narrative was developed as part of a futures exercise, and the outputs of a recent stakeholder and expert workshop, to inform modeling efforts underway by a coalition of researchers and local stakeholders -- an NSF-funded project entitled, Urban Resilience to Extreme Events. This narrative, which describes one of many potential energy futures for the island of Puerto Rico, uses expert opinion and extrapolation of recent trends in energy markets, technology, and policy development to describe a scenario in which Puerto Rico has achieved recently stated goals for energy and food systems resilience and sustainability. It will be used along with the outputs of a recent stakeholder workshop to inform model building. The document will be posted in the Urban Resilience to Extreme Events Research Network's blog.

CEO is a vision of the future role and position of CIO in healthcare organizations.

PubMed

Moghaddasi, Hamid; Sheikhtaheri, Abbas

2010-12-01

Literature related to chief information officer (CIO) in the developed countries during the past 20 years has been reviewed to identify the future trends of the position. The literature shows that CIO is a growing position in the healthcare industry that has achieved much popularity because today's healthcare has a great focus on information management and technology and that CIO can be future powerful strategist for healthcare organizations. Therefore, a model for an ideal healthcare CIO based on lesson learned from literature was suggested. It seems that in the developed countries, CIOs will achieve many opportunities to come in the highest executive teams of healthcare organizations and may undertake CEO roles.

Ancient Ethical Practices of Dualism and Ethical Implications for Future Paradigms in Nursing.

PubMed

Milton, Constance L

2016-07-01

Paradigms contain theoretical structures to guide scientific disciplines. Since ancient times, Cartesian dualism has been a prominent philosophy incorporated in the practice of medicine. The discipline of nursing has continued the body-mind emphasis with similar paradigmatic thinking and theories of nursing that separate body and mind. Future trends for paradigm and nursing theory development are harkening to former ways of thinking. In this article the author discusses the origins of Cartesian dualism and implications for its current usage. The author shall illuminate what it potentially means to engage in dualism in nursing and discuss possible ethical implications for future paradigm and theory development in nursing. © The Author(s) 2016.

[International trends of applied ecology and its future development in China].

PubMed

Zhou, Qixing; Sun, Shunjiang

2002-07-01

Internationally applied ecology was born around 25-40 years ago in order to adapt and serve the needs of mitigating increasingly environmental pollution and ecological destroy in developed western countries at that time. All the times applied ecological principles thus underpin most efforts at solving increasingly deterioration of natural resources and serious eco-environmental problems as its keystone and researching kernel with the development of the subject. At the advent of the 21st century, human beings enter into the age of applied ecology. There are five international features of applied ecology, including more attention to many-sided applications, special emphasis on the intersection with engineering, strongly keeping on mutual links with basic ecology, omnidirectional adoption of new methods and new technology, and side-by-side trends of microcosmic mechanisms and macroscopical regulation. Although we must connect with international applied ecology and absorb distillates from the subject in developed western countries, development of applied ecology in China in the future, in particular, at the beginnings of the 21st century should not deviate from aiming at the solution of increasingly environmental pollution and ecological destroy that is one of the most important basic situations of the country.

Determinants and Options in the Development of Higher Education in Poland.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jozefowicz, Adam; Kluczynski, Jan

Trends affecting the future development of higher education in Poland are considered. It is projected that the demographic pool of higher education enrollment will in 1995-2000 return to a level roughly comparable with the peak pressures for college entry in the years 1971-75. It is suggested that demographic changes alone can explain but a…

Performance of a family of omni and steered antennas for mobile satellite applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woo, K.; Huang, J.; Jamnejad, V.; Bell, D.; Berner, J.; Estabrook, P.; Densmore, A.

1990-01-01

The design and performance of a family of vehicle antennas developed at JPL in support of an emerging US Mobile Satellite Service (MSS) system are described. Test results of the antennas are presented. Trends for future development are addressed. Recommendations on design approaches for vehicle antennas of the first generation MSS are discussed.

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

2010-06-01

Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

The Future of HRD: It's Going to Get Tougher.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Craig, Robert L.

1986-01-01

The author highlights significant trends in organizational dimensions of human resource development, including (1) the serious attention given to training by senior management and national policymakers, (2) accounting and measurement imperatives and (3) structural changes in the source of training. (Author/CH)

Systemic and Global Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Small, Michele Geslin

In a rapidly changing world, schools need to reorient their curricula to ensure adequate preparation of children for the future. Among the fundamental changes affecting society are the diversification of lifestyles, the development of genetic engineering, trends toward automation, and the information explosion. The educational crisis reflects…

Journal of Business and Training Education, 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Redmann, Donna H., Ed.

2000-01-01

This ninth issue contains seven articles dealing with research, theory, trends and issues, curriculum, teaching methodology, technology, and personal/professional development. "Attitudes of FBLA (Future Business Leaders of America) Students toward Traditional Business Values and the American Economic System" (Inder P. Nijihawan, Richard…

Suggestions for Maintaining Educational Technology Programs in Hard-Pressed Areas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greene, John W.

1984-01-01

Discusses personnel development and inexpensive sources of equipment needed for successful educational technology programs in economically hard-pressed areas in the United States and in Third World countries. Surveys future technological trends and stresses need for planning and foresight. (CJM)

Trends in mechanical fasteners. [considering optimum metric fastener system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levy, J. B.

1972-01-01

Some of the specialty fasteners which are enjoying increasing usage are: thread rolling screws, self drilling and tapping screws, locking screws, tamperproof fasteners, and flanged bolts and nuts. The development of an optimum metric fastener system is recommended for future fastener manufacturing.

International Fertility Change: New Data and Insights from the Developmental Idealism Framework

PubMed Central

Thornton, Arland; Binstock, Georgina; Yount, Kathryn M.; Abbasi-Shavazi, Mohammad Jalal; Ghimire, Dirgha; Xie, Yu

2012-01-01

Many scholars have offered structural and ideational explanations for the fertility changes occurring around the world. This paper focuses on the influence of developmental idealism—a schema or set of beliefs endorsing development, fertility change, and causal connections between development and fertility. Developmental idealism is argued to be an important force affecting both population policy and the fertility behavior of ordinary people. We present new survey data from ordinary people in six countries—Argentina, China, Egypt, Iran, Nepal, and the United States—about the extent to which developmental idealism is known and believed. We ask individuals if they believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development is a causal force in changing fertility levels, and that fertility declines enhance the standard of living and intergenerational relations. We also ask people about their expectations concerning future trends in fertility in their countries and whether they approve or disapprove of the trends they expect. The data show widespread linkage in the minds of ordinary people between fertility and development. Large fractions of people in these six settings believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development reduces fertility, and that fertility declines foster development. Many also expect and endorse future declines in fertility. PMID:22403035

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Lyra, André; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961-1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021-2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021-2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario.

Future climate change scenarios in Central America at high spatial resolution

PubMed Central

Imbach, Pablo; Chou, Sin Chan; Rodrigues, Daniela; Rodriguez, Daniel; Latinovic, Dragan; Siqueira, Gracielle; Silva, Adan; Garofolo, Lucas; Georgiou, Selena

2018-01-01

The objective of this work is to assess the downscaling projections of climate change over Central America at 8-km resolution using the Eta Regional Climate Model, driven by the HadGEM2-ES simulations of RCP4.5 emission scenario. The narrow characteristic of continent supports the use of numerical simulations at very high-horizontal resolution. Prior to assessing climate change, the 30-year baseline period 1961–1990 is evaluated against different sources of observations of precipitation and temperature. The mean seasonal precipitation and temperature distribution show reasonable agreement with observations. Spatial correlation of the Eta, 8-km resolution, simulations against observations show clear advantage over the driver coarse global model simulations. Seasonal cycle of precipitation confirms the added value of the Eta at 8-km over coarser resolution simulations. The Eta simulations show a systematic cold bias in the region. Climate features of the Mid-Summer Drought and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet are well simulated by the Eta model at 8-km resolution. The assessment of the future climate change is based on the 30-year period 2021–2050, under RCP4.5 scenario. Precipitation is generally reduced, in particular during the JJA and SON, the rainy season. Warming is expected over the region, but stronger in the northern portion of the continent. The Mid-Summer Drought may develop in regions that do not occur during the baseline period, and where it occurs the strength may increase in the future scenario. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet shows little change in the future. Extreme temperatures have positive trend within the period 2021–2050, whereas extreme precipitation, measured by R50mm and R90p, shows positive trend in the eastern coast, around Costa Rica, and negative trends in the northern part of the continent. Negative trend in the duration of dry spell, which is an estimate based on evapotranspiration, is projected in most part of the continent. Annual mean water excess has negative trends in most part of the continent, which suggests decreasing water availability in the future scenario. PMID:29694355

Long-term patterns of air temperatures, daily temperature range, precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the USA great plains: Part II. Temporal trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.

2016-11-01

Detection of long-term changes in climate variables over large spatial scales is a very important prerequisite to the development of effective mitigation and adaptation measures for the future potential climate change and for developing strategies for future hydrologic balance analyses under changing climate. Moreover, there is a need for effective approaches of providing information about these changes to decision makers, water managers and stakeholders to aid in efficient implementation of the developed strategies. This study involves computation, mapping and analyses of long-term (1968-2013) county-specific trends in annual, growing-season (1st May-30th September) and monthly air temperatures [(maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and average (Tavg)], daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) over the USA Great Plains region using datasets from over 800 weather station sites. Positive trends in annual Tavg, Tmax and Tmin, DTR, precipitation, ETo and AI were observed in 71%, 89%, 85%, 31%, 61%, 38% and 66% of the counties in the region, respectively, whereas these proportions were 48%, 89%, 62%, 20%, 57%, 28%, and 63%, respectively, for the growing-season averages of the same variables. On a regional average basis, the positive trends in growing-season Tavg, Tmax and Tmin, DTR, precipitation, ETo and AI were 0.18 °C decade-1, 0.19 °C decade-1, 0.17 °C decade-1, 0.09 °C decade-1, 1.12 mm yr-1, 0.4 mm yr-1 and 0.02 decade-1, respectively, and the negative trends were 0.21 °C decade-1, 0.06 °C decade-1, 0.09 °C decade-1, 0.22 °C decade-1, 1.16 mm yr-1, 0.76 mm yr-1 and 0.02 decade-1, respectively. The temporal trends were highly variable in space and were appropriately represented using monthly, annual and growing-season maps developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The long-term and spatial and temporal information and data for a large region provided in this study can be used to analyze county-level trends in important climatic/hydrologic variables in context of climate change, water resources, agricultural and natural resources response to climate change.

Alternative Scenarios of the American Future: 1980-2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glover, Robert

This report is a summary of the findings of the societal trends survey completed at the National Forum on Learning and The American Future, which focused on factors influencing the future of adult learning. The survey questionnaire and results consist of 120 societal trend statements organized into sixteen different content areas: demography;…

FUTURE LOGISTICS AND OPERATIONAL ADAPTABILITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Houck, Roger P.

2009-10-01

While we cannot predict the future, we can ascertain trends and examine them through the use of alternative futures methodologies and tools. From a logistics perspective, we know that many different futures are possible, all of which are obviously dependent on decisions we make in the present. As professional logisticians we are obligated to provide the field - our Soldiers - with our best professional opinion of what will result in success on the battlefield. Our view of the future should take history and contemporary conflict into account, but it must also consider that continuity with the past cannot bemore » taken for granted. If we are too focused on past and current experience, then our vision of the future will be limited indeed. On the one hand, the future must be explained in language that does not defy common sense. On the other hand, the pace of change is such that we must conduct qualitative and quantitative trend analyses, forecasting, and explorative scenario development in ways that allow for significant breaks - or "shocks" - that may "change the game". We will need capabilities and solutions that are constantly evolving - and improving - to match the operational tempo of a radically changing threat environment. For those who provide quartermaster services, this article will briefly examine what this means from the perspective of creating what might be termed a preferred future.« less

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for depression: trends and developments.

PubMed

MacKenzie, Meagan B; Kocovski, Nancy L

2016-01-01

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) was developed as a psychological intervention for individuals at risk of depressive relapse. Possible mechanisms of change for this intervention are in line with its theoretical underpinnings, and include increases in mindfulness and/or decreases in negative repetitive thoughts. This review provides an overview of current trends in MBCT research, including efficacy and questions regarding the specific effects of MBCT in light of recent comparisons with structurally equivalent control conditions, mechanisms of change, and moderators of treatment outcome. In addition, future directions are discussed, such as challenges with training an adequate number of therapists and disseminating this therapy.

Present situation and trend of precision guidance technology and its intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Zhengguo; Liu, Tiandong

2017-11-01

This paper first introduces the basic concepts of precision guidance technology and artificial intelligence technology. Then gives a brief introduction of intelligent precision guidance technology, and with the help of development of intelligent weapon based on deep learning project in foreign: LRASM missile project, TRACE project, and BLADE project, this paper gives an overview of the current foreign precision guidance technology. Finally, the future development trend of intelligent precision guidance technology is summarized, mainly concentrated in the multi objectives, intelligent classification, weak target detection and recognition, intelligent between complex environment intelligent jamming and multi-source, multi missile cooperative fighting and other aspects.

Network Centric Warfare, Command, and the Nature of War

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-21

technologies. This future is a possibility arising from the current trend of developments in information and communication technologies. These...technologies are developing at such a rate that it is difficult for organizations to adapt quickly enough to exploit the advantages of emerging new...revolution. In fact, some contemporary military theorists argue that developments in information technologies are the catalyst for a new military

What We Know about Workforce Development for Low-Income Workers: Evidence, Background and Ideas for the Future. National Poverty Center Working Paper Series #13-09

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Francis, Caroline M.

2013-01-01

This bibliography summarizes recent research on the structure and effectiveness of workforce development programs. While the term "workforce development" can mean many things, this document focuses on programs to help low-skill, low-wage and displaced workers increase their employment and earnings, as well as labor market trends that…

Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?

PubMed Central

Lutz, Wolfgang; KC, Samir

2010-01-01

The total size of the world population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the future size of the population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA. PMID:20713384

Identification of Vehicle Health Assurance Related Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Evans, Joni K.; Barr, Lawrence C.; Leone, Karen M.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

Trend analysis in aviation as related to vehicle health management (VHM) was performed by reviewing the most current statistical and prognostics data available from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident, and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident datasets. In addition, future directions in aviation technology related to VHM research areas were assessed through the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementations (SERFIs), the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Most-Wanted List and recent open safety recommendations, the National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey of Civil Aeronautics, and the Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) areas of change. Future research direction in the VHM research areas is evidently strong as seen from recent research solicitations from the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), and VHM-related technologies actively being developed by aviation industry leaders, including GE, Boeing, Airbus, and UTC Aerospace Systems. Given the highly complex VHM systems, modifications can be made in the future so that the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology Project (VSST) technical challenges address inadequate maintenance crew's trainings and skills, and the certification methods of such systems as recommended by the NTSB, NRC, and FAST areas of change.

Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future.

PubMed

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.

Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yanbo; Zeng, An; Wang, Wei-Hong

2015-01-01

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail. PMID:25806810

Water Storage: Quo Vadis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smakhtin, V.

2017-12-01

Humans stored water - in various forms - for ages, coping with water resources variability, and its extremes - floods and droughts. Storage per capita, and other storage-related indicators, have essentially become one way of reflecting the progress of economic development. Massive investments went into large surface water reservoirs that have become the characteristic feature of the earth's landscapes, bringing both benefits and controversy. As water variability progressively increases with changing climate, globally, on one hand, and the idea of sustainable development receives strong traction, on another - it may be worth the while to comprehensively examine current trends and future prospects for water storage development. The task is surely big, to say the least. The presentation will aim to initiate a structured discussion on this multi-facet issue and identify which aspects and trends of water storage development may be most important in the context of Sustainable Development Goals, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Paris Agreement on Climate Change, and examine how, where and to what extent water storage planning can be improved. It will cover questions like i) aging of large water storage infrastructure, the current extent of this trend in various geographical regions, and possible impacts on water security and security of nations; ii) improved water storage development planning overall in the context of various water development alternatives and storage options themselves and well as their combinations iii) prospects for another "storage revolution" - speed increase in dam numbers, and where, if at all this is most likely iv) recent events in storage development, e.g. is dam decommissioning a trend that picks pace, or whether some developing economies in Asia can do without going through the period of water storage construction, with alternatives, or suggestions for alleviation of negative impacts v) the role of subsurface storage as an alternative to large surface dams, and vi) the role of nature based solutions in large storage development and overall storage functioning and management - to mention some. The presentation will call for coordinated effort that will help with environmentally and economically sound strategies of future storage development in national water planning.

Transgenic Wheat, Barley and Oats: Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunwell, Jim M.

Following the success of transgenic maize and rice, methods have now been developed for the efficient introduction of genes into wheat, barley and oats. This review summarizes the present position in relation to these three species, and also uses information from field trial databases and the patent literature to assess the future trends in the exploitation of transgenic material. This analysis includes agronomic traits and also discusses opportunities in expanding areas such as biofuels and biopharming.

Ionic liquid propellants: future fuels for space propulsion.

PubMed

Zhang, Qinghua; Shreeve, Jean'ne M

2013-11-11

Use of green propellants is a trend for future space propulsion. Hypergolic ionic liquid propellants, which are environmentally-benign while exhibiting energetic performances comparable to hydrazine, have shown great potential to meet the requirements of developing nontoxic high-performance propellant formulations for space propulsion applications. This Concept article presents a review of recent advances in the field of ionic liquid propellants. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP.

PubMed

Rindermann, Heiner; Pichelmann, Stefan

2015-01-01

The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups' (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed.

Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

Research and Development Trend of Shape Control for Cold Rolling Strip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong-Cheng; Liu, Hong-Min; Liu, Jun

2017-09-01

Shape is an important quality index of cold rolling strip. Up to now, many problems in the shape control domain have not been solved satisfactorily, and a review on the research progress in the shape control domain can help to seek new breakthrough directions. In the past 10 years, researches and applications of shape control models, shape control means, shape detection technology, and shape control system have achieved significant progress. In the aspect of shape control models, the researches in the past improve the accuracy, speed and robustness of the models. The intelligentization of shape control models should be strengthened in the future. In the aspect of the shape control means, the researches in the past focus on the roll optimization, mill type selection, process optimization, local strip shape control, edge drop control, and so on. In the future, more attention should be paid to the coordination control of both strip shape and other quality indexes, and the refinement of control objective should be strengthened. In the aspects of shape detection technology and shape control system, some new types of shape detection meters and shape control systems are developed and have successfully industrial applications. In the future, the standardization of shape detection technology and shape control system should be promoted to solve the problem of compatibility. In general, the four expected development trends of shape control for cold rolling strip in the future are intelligentization, coordination, refinement, and standardization. The proposed research provides new breakthrough directions for improving shape quality.

Contract Training: Progress and Policy Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deegan, William L.; Drisko, Ronald

1985-01-01

Provides results of a national survey of community college contract training programs, including data on the extent of the colleges' involvement, centralization/decentralization of contract training, problems and benefits, and future trends. Discusses future policy trends. (HB)

Positron Computed Tomography: Current State, Clinical Results and Future Trends

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Schelbert, H. R.; Phelps, M. E.; Kuhl, D. E.

1980-09-01

An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends. (ACR)

Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

2012-01-01

This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.

Pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond: preparing for plausible futures.

PubMed

Starmer, Amy J; Duby, John C; Slaw, Kenneth M; Edwards, Anne; Leslie, Laurel K

2010-11-01

Although the future of pediatrics is uncertain, the organizations that lead pediatrics, and the professionals who practice within it, have embraced the notion that the pediatric community must anticipate and lead change to ultimately improve the health of children and adolescents. In an attempt to proactively prepare for a variety of conceivable futures, the board of directors of the American Academy of Pediatrics established the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force in 2008. This group was charged to think broadly about the future of pediatrics, to gather input on key trends that are influencing the future, to create likely scenarios of the future, and to recommend strategies to best prepare pediatric clinicians and pediatric organizations for a range of potential futures. The work of this task force led to the development of 8 "megatrends" that were identified as highly likely to have a profound influence on the future of pediatrics. A separate list of "wild-card" scenarios was created of trends with the potential to have a substantial influence but are less likely to occur. The process of scenario-planning was used to consider the effects of the 8 megatrends on pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond. Consideration of these possible scenarios affords the opportunity to determine potential future pediatric needs, to identify potential solutions to address those needs, and, ultimately, to proactively prepare the profession to thrive if these or other future scenarios become realities.

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayati, M. B.; Liu, C. Y.; English, J. M.

1981-01-01

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption.

Technology Directions for the 21st Century. Vol. 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crimi, Giles F.; Verheggen, Henry; Malinowski, John; Malinowski, Robert; Botta, Robert

1996-01-01

The Office of Space Communications (OSC) is tasked by NASA to conduct a planning process to meet NASA's science mission and other communications and data processing requirements. A set of technology trend studies was undertaken by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) for OSC to identify quantitative data that can be used to predict performance of electronic equipment in the future to assist in the planning process. Only commercially available, off-the-shelf technology was included. For each technology area considered, the current state of the technology is discussed, future applications that could benefit from use of the technology are identified, and likely future developments of the technology are described. The impact of each technology area on NASA operations is presented together with a discussion of the feasibility and risk associated with its development. An approximate timeline is given for the next 15 to 25 years to indicate the anticipated evolution of capabilities within each of the technology areas considered. This volume contains four chapters: one each on technology trends for database systems, computer software, neural and fuzzy systems, and artificial intelligence. The principal study results are summarized at the beginning of each chapter.

Climate variability, vulnerability, and coping mechanism in Alaknanda catchment, Central Himalaya, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Kireet; Joshi, Sneh; Joshi, Varun

2008-06-01

A study was carried out to discover trends in the rainfall and temperature pattern of the Alaknanda catchment in the Central Himalaya. Data on the annual rainfall, monsoon rainfall for the last decade, and average annual temperatures over the last few decades were analyzed. Nonparametric methods (Mann-Kendall and Sen's method) were employed to identify trends. The Mann-Kendall test shows a decline in rainfall and rise in temperature, and these trends were found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level for both transects. Sen's method also confirms this trend. This aspect has to be considered seriously for the simple reason that if the same trend continues in the future, more chances of drought are expected. The impact of climate change has been well perceived by the people of the catchment, and a coping mechanism has been developed at the local level.

West African warming: Investigating Temperature Trends and their relation between Precipitation Trends over West African Sahel.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LY, M., Jr.

2014-12-01

It is now admitted that the West African region faces a lot of constraints due to the comprehensiveness of the high climate variability and potential climate change. This is mainly due to the lack of a large number of datasets and long-term records as summarized in the in the IPCC reports. This paper aims to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current and future climate conditions, for better manage climate variability over seasons and from year to year and strengthen the capacity to adapt to future climate change. In this regards, we analyse the evolution of some extreme temperature and precipitation indices over a large area of West Africa. Prior results show a general warming trend at individual stations throughout the region during the period from 1960 to 2010, namely negative trends in the number of cool nights, and positive trends in the number of warm days and length of warm spells. Trends in rainfall-related indices are not as uniform as the ones in temperatures, rather they display marked multi-decadal variability, as expected. To refine analyses of temperature variations and their relation to precipitation we investigated on cluster analysis aimed at distinguishing different sub-regions, such as continental and coastal, and relevant seasons, such as wet, dry/cold and dry warm. This will contribute to significantly lower uncertainties by developing better and more tailored temperature and precipitation trends to inform the user communities on climate related risks, as well as enhance their resilience to food insecurity and other climate related disasters.

Future of health care delivery in iran, opportunities and threats.

PubMed

Rajabi, F; Esmailzadeh, H; Rostamigooran, N; Majdzadeh, R; Doshmangir, L

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of important social and technological trends on health care delivery, in the context of developing "Iran's Health System Reform Plan by 2025". A detailed review of the national and international literature was done to identify the main trends affecting health system. To collect the experts' opinions about important trends and their impact on health care delivery, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and semi-structured in-depth interviews techniques were used. The study was based on the STEEP model. Final results were approved in an expert's panel session. The important social and technological trends, affecting health system in Iran in the next 15 years are demographic transition, epidemiologic transition, increasing bio-environmental pollution, increasing slums, increasing private sector partnership in health care delivery, moving toward knowledge-based society, development of information and communication technology, increasing use of high technologies in health system, and development of traditional and alternative medicine. The opportunities and threats resulting from the above mentioned trends were also assessed in this study. Increasing healthcare cost due to some trends like demographic and epidemiologic transition and uncontrolled increase in using new technologies in health care is one of the most important threats that the health system will be facing. The opportunities that advancement in technology and moving toward knowledge-based society create are important and should not be ignored.

Liquid-liquid extraction of actinides, lanthanides, and fission products by use of ionic liquids: from discovery to understanding.

PubMed

Billard, Isabelle; Ouadi, Ali; Gaillard, Clotilde

2011-06-01

Liquid-liquid extraction of actinides and lanthanides by use of ionic liquids is reviewed, considering, first, phenomenological aspects, then looking more deeply at the various mechanisms. Future trends in this developing field are presented.

Manufacturing Education Curriculum Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Umstattd, William D.

The Manufacturing Education Curriculum Project's feasibility study concerned with industrial arts curriculum development in manufacturing for the senior high school level is described. The need for an industrial arts curriculum which meets and reflects present and future trends is discussed in the introduction, followed by a review of the…

Future Projection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Villano, Matt

2009-01-01

From wireless connectivity to light processing improvements, digital projectors have incorporated a number of technological advancements in recent years--developments that have made the tools even easier for higher education technologists to use. This article offers some vendor insights about some of those trends, and the ways in which they might…

Counseling and Mental Health Care in Palestine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shawahin, Lamise; Ciftci, Ayse

2012-01-01

The authors provide a brief overview of counseling and mental health care in Palestine, including their history and a summary of their current status. Finally, a discussion is presented of future trends in the development of the profession with regard to recent changes in the region.

The voluntary community health movement in India: a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis.

PubMed

Sharma, M; Bhatia, G

1996-12-01

There has been a prolific growth of voluntary organizations in India since independence in 1947. One of the major areas of this growth has been in the field of community health. The purpose of this article is to historically trace the voluntary movement in community health in India, analyze the current status, and predict future trends of voluntary efforts. A review of the literature in the form of a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis was the method of this study. Some of the key trends which emerged as the priority areas for progress and for strengthening voluntary organizations in the future were enhancing linkages between health and development; building upon collective force; greater utilization of participatory training; establishing egalitarian and effectual linkages for decision making at the international level; developing self-reliant community-based models; and the need for attaining holistic empowerment at individual, organizational, and community levels through "duty consciousness" as opposed to merely asking for rights.

Technology and the Future of Healthcare

PubMed Central

Thimbleby, Harold

2013-01-01

Healthcare changes dramatically because of technological developments, from anesthetics and antibiotics to magnetic resonance imaging scanners and radiotherapy. Future technological innovation is going to keep transforming healthcare, yet while technologies (new drugs and treatments, new devices, new social media support for healthcare, etc) will drive innovation, human factors will remain one of the stable limitations of breakthroughs. No predictions can satisfy everybody; instead, this article explores fragments of the future to see how to think more clearly about how to get where we want to go. Significance for public health Technology drives healthcare more than any other force, and in the future it will continue to develop in dramatic ways. While we can glimpse and debate the details of future trends in healthcare, we need to be clear about the drivers so we can align with them and actively work to ensure the best outcomes for society as a whole. PMID:25170499

Future trends in society and technology: implications for wilderness research and management

Treesearch

George H. Stankey

2000-01-01

Judging the impact of social and technological trends on the future of wilderness is complex. Declining public trust, growing demands for scrutiny, a need to recognize the link between biophysical and socioeconomic systems, and the need for criteria to select among alternative futures challenge us. A burgeoning global population will increase resource impacts, but more...

Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to decrease future risks. Preliminary results show that the urban extent in Indonesia is projected to increase within 211 to 351% over the period 2000-2030 (5 and 95 percentile). Mainly driven by this rapid urbanization, potential flood losses in Indonesia increase rapidly and are primarily concentrated on the island of Java. The results reveal the large risk-reducing potential of adaptation measures. Since much of the urban development between 2000 and 2030 takes place in flood-prone areas, strategic urban planning (i.e. building in safe areas) may significantly reduce the urban population and infrastructure exposed to flooding. We conclude that a probabilistic risk approach in future flood risk assessment is vital; the drivers behind risk trends (exposure, hazard, vulnerability) should be understood to develop robust and efficient adaptation pathways.

Socioeconomic trends in radiology.

PubMed

Barneveld Binkhuysen, F H

1998-01-01

For radiology the socioeconomic environment is a topic of increasing importance. In addition to the well-known important scientific developments in radiology such as interventional MRI, several other major trends can be recognized: (1) changes in the delivery of health care, in which all kinds of managed care are developing and will influence the practice of radiology, and (2) the process of computerization and digitization. The socioeconomic environment of radiology will be transformed by the developments in managed care, teleradiology and the integration of information systems. If radiologists want to manage future radiology departments they must have an understanding of the changes in the fields of economics and politics that are taking place and that will increasingly influence radiology. Some important and recognizable aspects of these changes will be described here.

Domestic and world trends affecting the future of aviation (1980 - 2000), appendix C

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The results are presented of a study of variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological, and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis a series of scenarios is developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A scenario is presented which represents the manner in which events will most probably develop and their effect on the aviation industry.

Future trends in picture archiving and communication system (PACS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Hajeri, Mona; Clarke, Malcolm

2015-03-01

Objective: This research investigates the needs and opinions of radiologists on the use of enhanced information technologies and approaches to improve the functionality of Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (PACS). Method: Six interviews were conducted in the main governmental hospital in Kuwait (AL-Sabah Hospital) with radiologists, including two senior radiologists, two junior radiologists, and two trainee radiologists undertaking the Irish radiology board. Results: The radiologists identified a number of limitations that exist in current PACS and requirements to enhance usability and functionality. However, it was the case that some of the radiologists had little knowledge about the advanced trends in PACS. Four themes emerged from the thematic analysis of the data: (1) limitations of traditional PACS; (2) Features and requirements that can increase PACS functionality; (3) web based solutions of PACS; (4) PACS in mobile phones. Conclusion: It is widely recognized that PACS has limitations. This research has identified themes that, when incorporated, will enhance the functionality of PACS and provide better quality clinical practice. This research has determined the important future trends of PACS. Primarily web based solutions and use in mobile phones. The findings from this research can be used as recommendations to vendors, for product development and medical institutes to consider when undertaking implementation of PACS and training future radiologists.

River-ice break-up/freeze-up: a review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prowse, T. D.; Bonsal, B. R.; Duguay, C. R.; Lacroix, M. P.

2007-10-01

River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0°C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.

Advances and trends in computational structural mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, A. K.

1986-01-01

Recent developments in computational structural mechanics are reviewed with reference to computational needs for future structures technology, advances in computational models for material behavior, discrete element technology, assessment and control of numerical simulations of structural response, hybrid analysis, and techniques for large-scale optimization. Research areas in computational structural mechanics which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified. These include prediction and analysis of the failure of structural components made of new materials, development of computational strategies and solution methodologies for large-scale structural calculations, and assessment of reliability and adaptive improvement of response predictions.

Neuronavigation in the surgical management of brain tumors: current and future trends

PubMed Central

Orringer, Daniel A; Golby, Alexandra; Jolesz, Ferenc

2013-01-01

Neuronavigation has become an ubiquitous tool in the surgical management of brain tumors. This review describes the use and limitations of current neuronavigational systems for brain tumor biopsy and resection. Methods for integrating intraoperative imaging into neuronavigational datasets developed to address the diminishing accuracy of positional information that occurs over the course of brain tumor resection are discussed. In addition, the process of integration of functional MRI and tractography into navigational models is reviewed. Finally, emerging concepts and future challenges relating to the development and implementation of experimental imaging technologies in the navigational environment are explored. PMID:23116076

The Evolvement of Automobile Steering System Based on TRIZ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xinjun; Zhang, Shuang

Products and techniques pass through a process of birth, growth, maturity, death and quit the stage like biological evolution process. The developments of products and techniques conform to some evolvement rules. If people know and hold these rules, they can design new kind of products and forecast the develop trends of the products. Thereby, enterprises can grasp the future technique directions of products, and make product and technique innovation. Below, based on TRIZ theory, the mechanism evolvement, the function evolvement and the appearance evolvement of automobile steering system had been analyzed and put forward some new ideas about future automobile steering system.

Imaging detectors and electronics—a view of the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spieler, Helmuth

2004-09-01

Imaging sensors and readout electronics have made tremendous strides in the past two decades. The application of modern semiconductor fabrication techniques and the introduction of customized monolithic integrated circuits have made large-scale imaging systems routine in high-energy physics. This technology is now finding its way into other areas, such as space missions, synchrotron light sources, and medical imaging. I review current developments and discuss the promise and limits of new technologies. Several detector systems are described as examples of future trends. The discussion emphasizes semiconductor detector systems, but I also include recent developments for large-scale superconducting detector arrays.

The Northern Forest Futures Project: examining past, present, and future trends affecting forests in and around the central hardwood forest region

Treesearch

Stephen Shifley

2013-01-01

Th e Northern Forest Futures Project is intended to be a window on tomorrow's forests, revealing how today's trends and choices can change the future landscape of the Northeast and Midwest. Th e research is focused on the 20 states bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri and Minnesota—the most heavily forested and most densely populated quadrant of the...

Papers Presented at the National Conference on Curriculum Development in Vocational and Technical Education. (Dallas, March 5-7, 1969).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

California Univ., Los Angeles.

Papers included are: (1) "Intent and Purposes of Part I of the Vocational Education Amendments of 1968" by M.L. Barlow, (2) "The Future of Vocational Curriculum Development" by G.B. Leighbody, (3) "Evaluation of Curriculum Materials and Their Use" by W.J. Popham, (4) "Current Trends in Curriculum Theory and…

Developing an Environmental Scanning System in an Educational Organization: Lessons Learned. AIR 1990 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.; Ptaszynski, James G.

An environmental scanning system was developed by the admissions office of a graduate school of management in a small southeastern university. The school's strategic planning committee felt that it would be beneficial to acquire information concerning issues, trends, and possible events that might impact upon the school in the future and to…

Working group on future trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

,; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Reeves, Randall R.; Long, Alison Kirk

1999-01-01

This working group did not divide into subgroups, and its report consists of a unified document in a format somewhat different than those of the other working groups. The group considered four major topics: (1) projected "new" contaminants of future concern; (2) future trends with contaminants currently known to be issues for marine mammals; (3) future needs to improve and insure consistency of sample collection and analyses; and (4) future management needs.The problems of persistent organic pollutants will remain well into the foreseeable future. A general decline in levels of persistent organic pollutants in the marine environment is not anticipated. there is every likelihood that the environmental trends of halogenated organic compounds, such as polybromated diphenyl ethers and chlorinated paraffins, will parallel production trends, as demonstrated with well known chemical contaminants such as PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls) and DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane). While the environmental levels of some compounds may be slowly declining, many are still within the ranges where subtle toxic effects are to be anticipated. Trends in contaminants must be placed in a regional context, and rates and directions of change are often region-specific. For example, in the Southern Hemisphere the concentrations of PCBs appear to be increasing. The rates of change of many contaminants in the Southern hemisphere are poorly known, and this region may be at future risk.Much of the research on contaminants and marine mammals has focused on the problem of persistent organochloride chemicals such as PCBs and DDT, which are a continuing and global problem. Potential problems caused by other persistent, toxic, and bioaccumulative substances (PTBSs) cannot currently be addressed due to the lack of basic information on their production, use, exposure, and effects (Environmental Protection Agency 1998). It is currently estimated that there are roughly 2400 lipophilic and persistent chemicals, of which 390 are PTBSs. In order to prevent long-term pollution from these largely unknown chemicals, chemical industries should disclose basic information on such compounds, and this information should be made widely available. This will require enhanced international cooperation, preferably within the existing framework of chemical contaminant programs, such as the Existing Chemicals Program of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1991) and the Program on persistent Organic Pollutants of the United National Environmental Programme (1998).Monitoring studies are essential to the description and understanding of pollutants. It is necessary to exploit existing analytical techniques to identify as many anthropogenic compounds as possible in marine mammal tissues in order to expand the identification of existing and new chemicals that accumulate in, and pose threats to, these species.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Y

2018-08-15

The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km 2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km 2 /yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study on the development trend and practice of sponge cities with Chinese Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Baihao; Zhang, Cunkuan; Lin, Hua

2018-03-01

The design of sponge city is the innovation and development of theory of rainwater utilization, which provides a new idea for the city to solve the problem of waterlogging and water shortage. The paper expounds the “sponge city” concept of the origins, development and application in engineering construction, and puts forward some suggestions for future research of “sponge city” for our city construction.

Managing the Global Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

Development Projects in Brazilian Amazonia .’ Conservation L2.LgA . 1.3 (Oct. 1987): 214-21. Fearnside, Philip M. ’Land-Use Trends in the Brazilian Amazon...78, Xohlhepp, Gerd. ’A Challenge to Science and Regional Development Policy: Reflections on the Future Development of Amazonia .’ Alied Geography j...Internationl Energy Agency Coal Research, 1988. (Report Lit IEACR/88/16) Smith, William H. "Critical Analysis of Previous Investigative Approaches in

Technology and Its Use in Education: Present Roles and Future Prospects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Courville, Keith

2011-01-01

(Purpose) This article describes two current trends in Educational Technology: distributed learning and electronic databases. (Findings) Topics addressed in this paper include: (1) distributed learning as a means of professional development; (2) distributed learning for content visualization; (3) usage of distributed learning for educational…

Educating for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlisle, E. R.

1988-01-01

Recent economic data suggest that trends occurring in the U.S. and other global economies will force even greater changes upon our educational system. To help educators prepare students for tomorrow's work force, this article discusses and clarifies some current developments in technology, job and education requirements, and U.S. productivity…

A City Manager Looks at Trends Affecting Public Libraries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kemp, Roger L.

1999-01-01

Highlights some important conditions, both present and future, which will have an impact on public libraries. Discusses holding down expenses, including user fees, alternative funding sources, and private cosponsorship of programs; increasing productivity; use of computers and new technologies; staff development and internal marketing; improving…

Recent developments and trends in thermal blanching- A comprehensive review

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objectives of this article were to review the purposes of blanching, the principal operational concepts and limitations and current status of different blanching methods. Moreover, future perspectives and research needs are presented. Blanching is a very important unit operation in fruits and ve...

Electronic Document Delivery: OCLC's Prototype System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hickey, Thomas B.; Calabrese, Andrew M.

1986-01-01

Describes development of system for retrieval of documents from magnetic storage that uses stored font definition codes to control an inexpensive laser printer in the production of copies that closely resemble original document. Trends in information equipment and printing industries that will govern future application of this technology are…

Laser Optical Disk: The Coming Revolution in On-Line Storage.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fujitani, Larry

1984-01-01

Review of similarities and differences between magnetic-based and optical disk drives includes a discussion of the electronics necessary for their operation; describes benefits, possible applications, and future trends in development of laser-based drives; and lists manufacturers of laser optical disk drives. (MBR)

Current and Emerging Forces Impacting Special Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yates, James R.

Using the methodology of force field analysis, the paper develops possible futures for special education based on current trends. Demographic forces impacting special education include age changes, ethnicity changes, the needs of emerging language minorities, specific change in the youth population, environmental factors and the incidence of…

Annual Report for Gravity Collection Lysimeter Monitoring Plan- ERDF Cells 5 and 6, CY 2008

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R. L. Weiss; D. W. Woolery

2009-08-25

The purpose of this annual report is to evaluate the conditions and identify trends to develop Hanford site-specific data on the performance of the lysimeter systems related to the vadose zone monitoring and potential future use of lysimeter systems.

On the Horizon. The Environmental Scanning Newsletter for Leaders in Education, 1994-95.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L., Ed.

1995-01-01

These five newsletter issues focus on potential developments and critical trends in higher education. Feature articles include: (1) "A Reinvented Model for Higher Education" (Richard B. Heydinger); (2) "Redesigning American Public Education" (James S. Coleman); (3) "Envisioning (and Inventing) the Future" (Ian…

Fish Vaccines: Current State and Future Trends

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A vaccine is a preventive tool used in a health management strategy for the control of infectious diseases. For more than 100 years, vaccines have proved to be effective for preventing infectious disease outbreaks in humans, poultry and other food animals. In aquaculture, the development and use of...

Planning for the 80s and Beyond.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Anza Coll., Cupertino, CA.

Designed as a guide for policy formation, program development, and resource allocation, this report identifies and evaluates future trends and their implications for California's De Anza College (DAC). Section 1 contains introductory information on the purposes, processes, and components of institutional planning at DAC. Section 2 assesses the…

Pathways to the Future: Linking Environmental Scanning to Strategic Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mecca, Thomas V.; Morrison, James L.

1988-01-01

Describes an ED QUEST (Quick Environmental Scanning Technique) workshop demonstrating the links between an environmental scanning/forecasting process and formulation of institutional strategy. Explains ED QUEST's use in identifying and analyzing critical trends and events, and identifying the nature of the organization; developing alternative…

Gaylord Information Systems: Poised for Its Second Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farley, Charles E., Jr.; And Others

1993-01-01

Describes the development of the GALAXY Integrated Library System by Gaylord Information Systems. Topics addressed include the library automation business; industry trends, both long-term and short-term; a history of Gaylord's automation ventures; Gaylord's vision of the future; and perspectives from two GALAXY users. (LRW)

The Five-Year Outlook on Science and Technology: 1982.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC. Committee on Science and Public Policy.

Presented are reports on trends and probable future developments in eight selected areas of basic science and engineering. These reports are: "The Genetic Program of Complex Organisms" (Maxine F. Singer); "The Molecular and Genetic Technology of Plants" (Joseph E. Varner); "Cell Receptors for Hormones and…

New ecology education: Preparing students for the complex human-environmental problems of dryland East Asia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Present-day environmental problems of Dryland East Asia are serious, and future prospects look especially disconcerting owing to current trends in population growth and economic development. Land degradation and desertification, invasive species, biodiversity losses, toxic waste and air pollution, a...

Orbit Transfer Systems with Emphasis on Shuttle Applications, 1986-1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

A systems study is presented for a transportation system which will follow the interim upper stage and spinning solid upper stage. Included are concepts, concept comparisons, trends, parametric data, etc. associated with the future system. Relevant technical and programmatic information is developed. This information is intended to focus future activity to identify attractive options and to summarize the major issues associated with the future development of the system. To establish a common basis for identifying current transportation concepts, an orbit transfer vehicle (OTV) is defined as a propulsive (velocity producing) rocket or stage. When used with a crew transfer module, a manned sortie module or other payloads, the combination becomes an orbit transfer system (OTS). Standardization of OTV's and OTS's is required.

Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service.

2012-01-01

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

Identifying and Exploring Future Trends Impacting on Academic Libraries: A Mixed Methodology Using Journal Content Analysis, Focus Groups, and Trend Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gwyer, Roisin

2015-01-01

This article compares three sources of information about academic libraries to consider what the future could hold and the skills needed to deliver effective services within that future. The starting point is the contents of "New Review of Academic Librarianship" (formerly "British Journal of Academic Librarianship") from 1986,…

The Future of the Campus: Architecture and Master Planning Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coulson, Jonathan; Roberts, Paul; Taylor, Isabelle

2015-01-01

The article discusses current and likely future trends within the architecture and master planning of university campuses. It argues that higher education administrators must maximise the value of the campus to create physical environments that enhance the student experience.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Fuel ethanol production: process design trends and integration opportunities.

PubMed

Cardona, Carlos A; Sánchez, Oscar J

2007-09-01

Current fuel ethanol research and development deals with process engineering trends for improving biotechnological production of ethanol. In this work, the key role that process design plays during the development of cost-effective technologies is recognized through the analysis of major trends in process synthesis, modeling, simulation and optimization related to ethanol production. Main directions in techno-economical evaluation of fuel ethanol processes are described as well as some prospecting configurations. The most promising alternatives for compensating ethanol production costs by the generation of valuable co-products are analyzed. Opportunities for integration of fuel ethanol production processes and their implications are underlined. Main ways of process intensification through reaction-reaction, reaction-separation and separation-separation processes are analyzed in the case of bioethanol production. Some examples of energy integration during ethanol production are also highlighted. Finally, some concluding considerations on current and future research tendencies in fuel ethanol production regarding process design and integration are presented.

Current trends in cognitive rehabilitation for memory disorders.

PubMed

Kashima, H; Kato, M; Yoshimasu, H; Muramatsu, T

1999-06-01

Progress in the neuropsychology of memory disorders has provided a foundation for development of cognitive rehabilitation for amnesic patients. Accumulating evidence in the past two decades suggested that certain training techniques could be beneficial to many amnesic patients, such as teaching and acquisition of domain-specific knowledge, motor coding, reality orientation, and meta-cognition improvement. In this article we review and discuss the current trends in cognitive rehabilitation of memory disorders and provide a future direction in this emerging field. In addition, our experience in the successful rehabilitation of Korsakoff syndrome patients is also introduced.

Global nonfuel mineral exploration trends 2001-2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karl, Nick; Wilburn, David R.

2017-01-01

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) is to collect, analyze and disseminate information on the domestic and international supply of and demand for minerals and mineral materials essential to the U.S. economy and national security. Understanding mineral exploration activities and trends assists government policy makers, minerals industry decision makers and research entities in identifying where future sources of mineral supply are likely to be discovered, the amount and type of these resources and factors that may affect exploration and development.

A climate trend analysis of Uganda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies observed changes in rainfall and temperature in Uganda, based on an analysis of a quality-controlled, long time series of station observations throughout Uganda. Extending recent trends forward, it also provides a current and near-future context for understanding the actual nature of climate change impacts in the country, and a basis for identifying climate adaptations that may protect and improve the country's food security.

International variations and trends in renal cell carcinoma incidence and mortality.

PubMed

Znaor, Ariana; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Laversanne, Mathieu; Jemal, Ahmedin; Bray, Freddie

2015-03-01

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) incidence rates are higher in developed countries, where up to half of the cases are discovered incidentally. Declining mortality trends have been reported in highly developed countries since the 1990s. To compare and interpret geographic variations and trends in the incidence and mortality of RCC worldwide in the context of controlling the future disease burden. We used data from GLOBOCAN, the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, and the World Health Organisation mortality database to compare incidence and mortality rates in more than 40 countries worldwide. We analysed incidence and mortality trends in the last 10 yr using joinpoint analyses of the age-standardised rates (ASRs). RCC incidence in men varied in ASRs (World standard population) from approximately 1/100,000 in African countries to >15/100,000 in several Northern and Eastern European countries and among US blacks. Similar patterns were observed for women, although incidence rates were commonly half of those for men. Incidence rates are increasing in most countries, most prominently in Latin America. Although recent mortality trends are stable in many countries, significant declines were observed in Western and Northern Europe, the USA, and Australia. Southern European men appear to have the least favourable RCC mortality trends. Although RCC incidence is still increasing in most countries, stabilisation of mortality trends has been achieved in many highly developed countries. There are marked absolute differences and opposing RCC mortality trends in countries categorised as areas of higher versus lower human development, and these gaps appear to be widening. Renal cell cancer is becoming more commonly diagnosed worldwide in both men and women. Mortality is decreasing in the most developed settings, but not in low- and middle-income countries, where access to and the availability of optimal therapies are likely to be limited. Copyright © 2014 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monitoring trends in bat populations of the United States and territories: Problems and prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Bogan, M. A.

2003-01-01

Bats are ecologically and economically important mammals. The life histories of bats (particularly their low reproductive rates and the need for some species to gather in large aggregations at limited numbers of roosting sites) make their populations vulnerable to declines. Many of the species of bats in the United States (U.S.) and territories are categorized as endangered or threatened, have been candidates for such categories, or are considered species of concern. The importance and vulnerability of bat populations makes monitoring trends in their populations a goal for their future management. However, scientifically rigorous monitoring of bat populations requires well-planned, statistically defensible efforts. This volume reports findings of an expert workshop held to examine the topic of monitoring populations of bats. The workshop participants included leading experts in sampling and analysis of wildlife populations, as well as experts in the biology and conservation of bats. Findings are reported in this volume under two sections. Part I of the report presents contributed papers that provide overviews of past and current efforts at monitoring trends in populations of bats in the U.S. and territories. These papers consider current techniques and problems, and summarize what is known about the status and trends in populations of selected groups of bats. The contributed papers in Part I also include a description of the monitoring program developed for bat populations in the United Kingdom, a critique of monitoring programs in wildlife in general with recommendations for survey and sampling strategies, and a compilation and analysis of existing data on trends in bats of the U.S. and territories. Efforts directed at monitoring bat populations are piecemeal and have shortcomings. In Part II of the report, the workshop participants provide critical analyses of these problems and develop recommendations for improving methods, defining objectives and priorities, gaining mandates, and enhancing information exchange to facilitate future efforts for monitoring trends in U.S. bat populations.

Hospital information management system: an evolutionary knowledge management perspective.

PubMed

Wadhwa, S; Saxena, Avneet; Wadhwa, Bharat

2007-01-01

The evolving paradigm shift resulting from IT, social and technological changes has created a need for developing an innovative knowledge-based healthcare system, which can effectively meet global healthcare system demands and also cater to future trends. The Hospital Information Management System (HIMS) is developed with this sole aim in mind, which helps in processing and management of hospital information not only inside the boundary, but also beyond the hospital boundary, e.g., telemedicine or e-healthcare. The purpose of this paper is to present such kind of functional HIMS, which can efficiently satisfy the current and future system requirements by using Knowledge Management (KM) and data management systems. The HIMS is developed in a KM context, wherein users can share and use the knowledge more effectively. The proposed system is fully compatible with future technical, social, managerial and economical requirements.

Review of evaluation on ecological carrying capacity: The progress and trend of methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S. F.; Xu, Y.; Liu, T. J.; Ye, J. M.; Pan, B. L.; Chu, C.; Peng, Z. L.

2018-02-01

The ecological carrying capacity (ECC) has been regarded as an important reference to indicate the level of regional sustainable development since the very beginning of twenty-first century. By a brief review of the main progress in ECC evaluation methodologies in recent five years, this paper systematically discusses the features and differences of these methods and expounds the current states and future development trend of ECC methodology. The result shows that further exploration in terms of the dynamic, comprehensive and intelligent assessment technologies needs to be provided in order to form a unified and scientific ECC methodology system and to produce a reliable basis for environmental-economic decision-makings.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Visualization and classification of physiological failure modes in ensemble hemorrhage simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Song; Pruett, William Andrew; Hester, Robert

2015-01-01

In an emergency situation such as hemorrhage, doctors need to predict which patients need immediate treatment and care. This task is difficult because of the diverse response to hemorrhage in human population. Ensemble physiological simulations provide a means to sample a diverse range of subjects and may have a better chance of containing the correct solution. However, to reveal the patterns and trends from the ensemble simulation is a challenging task. We have developed a visualization framework for ensemble physiological simulations. The visualization helps users identify trends among ensemble members, classify ensemble member into subpopulations for analysis, and provide prediction to future events by matching a new patient's data to existing ensembles. We demonstrated the effectiveness of the visualization on simulated physiological data. The lessons learned here can be applied to clinically-collected physiological data in the future.

Future Watch: Our Schools in the 21st Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery, Judith K.; Herer, Gilbert R.

1994-01-01

This article reviews major social, technological, economic, and political trends in the United States and relates this larger perspective to the practices of speech language pathologists and audiologists in the schools. Implications of these trends for alternative futures are drawn. (Author/DB)

Virtual Universities: Current Models and Future Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guri-Rosenblit, Sarah

2001-01-01

Describes current models of distance education (single-mode distance teaching universities, dual- and mixed-mode universities, extension services, consortia-type ventures, and new technology-based universities), including their merits and problems. Discusses future trends in potential student constituencies, faculty roles, forms of knowledge…

Past and Future Trends in Light Truck Sales.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-08-01

This report uses the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark II) and its associated databases to discuss and analyze past and future trends in the Light Duty Truck market. The dynamic historical growth in this market and its implications for ene...

Trends in aeropropulsion research and their impact on engineering education

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Povinelli, Louis A.; Reichert, Bruce A.; Glassman, Arthur J.

1992-01-01

This presentation is concerned with the trends in aeropropulsion both in the U.S. and abroad and the impact of these trends on the educational process in our universities. In this paper, we shall outline the new directions for research which may be of interest to educators in the aeropropulsion field. Awareness of new emphases, such as emission reductions, noise control, maneuverability, speed, etc., will have a great impact on engineering educators responsible for restructuring courses in propulsion. The information presented herein will also provide some background material for possible consideration in the future development of propulsion courses. In describing aeropropulsion, we are concerned primarily with air-breathing propulsion; however many observations apply equally as well to rocket engine systems. Aeropropulsion research needs are primarily motivated by technologies required for advanced vehicle systems and frequently driven by external requirements such as economic competitiveness, environmental concern and national security. In this presentation, vehicle based research is first described, followed by a discussion of discipline and multidiscipline research necessary to implement the vehicle-focused programs. The importance of collaboration in research and the training of future researchers concludes this presentation.

Trends in technology, trade and consumption likely to impact on microbial food safety.

PubMed

Quested, T E; Cook, P E; Gorris, L G M; Cole, M B

2010-05-30

Current and potential future trends in technology, consumption and trade of food that may impact on food-borne disease are analysed and the key driving factors identified focusing on the European Union and, to a lesser extent, accounting for the United States and global issues. Understanding of factors is developed using system-based methods and their impact is discussed in relation to current events and predictions of future trends. These factors come from a wide range of spheres relevant to food and include political, economic, social, technological, regulatory and environmental drivers. The degree of certainty in assessing the impact of important driving factors is considered in relation to food-borne disease. The most important factors driving an increase in the burden of food-borne disease in the next few decades were found to be the anticipated doubling of the global demand for food and of the international trade in food next to a significantly increased consumption of certain high-value food commodities such as meat and poultry and fresh produce. A less important factor potentially increasing the food-borne disease burden would be the increased demand for convenience foods. Factors that may contribute to a reduction in the food-borne disease burden were identified as the ability of governments around the world to take effective regulatory measures as well as the development and use of new food safety technologies and detection methods. The most important factor in reducing the burden of food-borne disease was identified as our ability to first detect and investigate a food safety issue and then to develop effective control measures. Given the global scale of impact on food safety that current and potentially future trends have, either by potentially increasing or decreasing the food-borne disease burden, it is concluded that a key role is fulfilled by intergovernmental organisations and by international standard setting bodies in coordinating the establishment and rolling-out of effective measures that, on balance, help ensure long-term consumer protection and fair international trade. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry; Sayler, Kristi L.

2008-01-01

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit current and projected land-use and land-cover data. The southeastern United States has experienced massive land-use change since European settlement and continues to experience extremely high rates of forest cutting, significant urban development, and changes in agricultural land use. Forest-cover patterns and structure are projected to change dramatically in the southeastern United States in the next 50 years due to population growth and demand for wood products [Wear, D.N., Greis, J.G. (Eds.), 2002. Southern Forest Resource Assessment. General Technical Report SRS-53. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC, 635 pp]. Along with our climate partners, we are examining the potential effects of southeastern U.S. land-cover change on regional climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973-2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States, providing ecoregion-by-ecoregion estimates of the rates of change, descriptive transition matrices, and changes in landscape metrics. The FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-cover (FORE-SCE) model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land-cover change through 2050 for the southeastern United States. Prescriptions for future proportions of land cover for this application were provided by ecoregion-based extrapolations of historical change. Logistic regression was used to develop relationships between suspected drivers of land-cover change and land cover, resulting in the development of probability-of-occurrence surfaces for each unique land-cover type. Forest stand age was initially established with Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and tracked through model iterations. The spatial allocation procedure placed patches of new land cover on the landscape until the scenario prescriptions were met, using measured Land Cover Trends data to guide patch characteristics and the probability surfaces to guide placement. The approach provides an efficient method for extrapolating historical land-cover trends and is amenable to the incorporation of more detailed and focused studies for the establishment of scenario prescriptions.

[Review of wireless energy transmission system for total artificial heart].

PubMed

Zhang, Chi; Yang, Ming

2009-11-01

This paper sums up the fundamental structure of wireless energy transmission system for total artificial heart, and compares the key parameters and performance of some representative systems. After that, it is discussed that the future development trend of wireless energy transmission system for total artificial heart.

Nanotechnology Based Materials and Devices for Health Care

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srivastava, Deepaka; Cho, K.; Brenner, Don; Menon, Madhu; Andriotis, Antonis; Sagman, Uri; Biegel, Bryan A. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides information on trends in NASA nanotechnology research and development, and future biotechnological applications for that nanotechnology. The presentation covers nanoelectronics, nanosensors, and nanomaterials, biomimetics, devices and materials for health care, carbon nanotubes, biosensors for astrobiology, solid-state nanopores for DNA sequencing, and protein nanotubes.

Leisure Today: Selected Readings. Volume III.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mendell, Ron, Ed.

The articles in this compilation from issues of "Leisure Today"--a membership service which appears as an insert in the "Journal of Physical Education, Recreation, and Dance"-- address the trends, realities, and futures in the development of recreational and leisure programs. Readings have been selected on: (1) population dynamics and leisure; (2)…

Microcomputers in Education. Report No. 4798.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feurzeig, W.; And Others

A brief review of the history of computer-assisted instruction and discussion of the current and potential roles of microcomputers in education introduce this review of the capabilities of state-of-the-art microcomputers and currently available software for them, and some speculations about future trends and developments. A survey of current…

Long-Range Trends in the Development of Higher Education in Mining

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pzhevskii, V. V.

1978-01-01

Reviews the relationship between scientific and technological progress, needs of the Soviet economy, and capacities of higher education institutions in terms of the future of the mining industry. Mining specialists will have to prepare for technical progress in the extracting industries, growth in production, complex mechanization, and automation…

Professional Self-Esteem or the Evolution of a Profession.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowenfled, B.

1989-01-01

The article reviews historical challenges met by the blindness field including the epidemics of retrolental fibroplasia and Rubella. It discusses internal developments in the field including the trend from braille class to resource room, changed standards of teacher preparation, future functions of residential schools, and disability-specific…

The Contribution of Geography to Current Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerasimov, I. P.

1975-01-01

The three main principles on which geographical knowledge is based are regionalism, ecology, and anthropogenesis. The role that each of these principles has played in the development of geographical science is examined. Current and future trends in geography are also discussed. For address of journal see SO 504 028. (Author/RM)

Adapting geostatistics to analyze spatial and temporal trends in weed populations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Geostatistics were originally developed in mining to estimate the location, abundance and quality of ore over large areas from soil samples to optimize future mining efforts. Here, some of these methods were adapted to weeds to account for a limited distribution area (i.e., inside a field), variatio...

Citizen Action. Teacher's Guide to World Resources. Comprehensive Coursework on the Global Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snyder, Sarah A.

This teacher's guide presents teaching suggestions and presentation materials about citizen action in the global environment. Focusing on the nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the lessons describe the roles NGOs play in positively influencing future trends in social development, natural resources management, and environmental quality. NGOs are…

Planning for the Year 2000: Women in Academe.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fallon, Janet L.

1991-01-01

Offers a brief review of some issues of importance to the integration and development of women in faculty roles, including the wage gap and the dominant model used to explain it, the job market, mentoring, financial support for graduate students, and methodological trends in research. Notes implications for the future. (SR)

Trends in Art Education from Diverse Cultures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kauppinen, Heta, Ed.; Diket, Read, Ed.

This anthology brings together art educators from 21 countries to provide information about the past record of art education along with recent developments and future prospects. In "Part I: Historical Perspectives," the role of cross cultural influences is reported in essays: (1) "Quality Criteria Shifts in One Century of Art…

Opinion on Recent Developments and the Future of Special Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kauffman, James M.

2015-01-01

Three encouraging trends in special education are greater focus on instruction, emphasis on positive approaches to problem behavior, and greater reliance on scientific evidence. Next steps involving instruction should include research on modifications of instruction needed to accommodate learners with disabilities and on the place in which these…

Whither High Technology?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levitt, Harry

1991-01-01

This article briefly describes sensory aids for individuals with hearing impairments, such as the visible speech translator, the cochlear implant, and the digital hearing aid, and identifies common trends. The article stresses factors affecting the development of sensory aids in the past and how these factors are likely to influence the future.…

Pathways to the Future: Linking Environmental Scanning to Strategic Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mecca, Thomas V.; Morrison, James L.

ED QUEST (Quick Environmental Scanning Techniques) is a strategic planning process designed to identify emerging trends, issues, and events which portend threats or opportunities for colleges and universities, analyze their probable impact on the institution, and facilitate the development of appropriate institutional strategies. A workshop was…

The Past, Present and Future of Widening Participation Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kettley, Nigel

2007-01-01

The provisions of the Higher Education Act (2004) have renewed interest in widening participation research. Therefore, this paper explores the development of this scholarly field, primarily in the United Kingdom, by examining major trends in the study of higher education. Political debates related to higher education, the prevailing structure of…

Biobased adhesives, gums, emulsions and binders: current trends and future prospects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biopolymers derived from renewable resources are an emerging class of advanced materials that offer many useful properties for a wide range of food and non-food applications. Current state of the art in research and development of renewable polymers as adhesives, gums, binders and emulsions will be ...

Sustainable development and environmental protection: A perspective on current trends and future options for universities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemons, John

1995-03-01

Problems of sustainable development and environmental protection pose a challenge to humanity unprecedented in scope and complexity. Whether and how the problems are resolved have significant implications for human and ecological well-being. In this paper, I discuss briefly recent international recommendations to promote sustainable development and environmental protection. I then offer a perspective on the roles and prospects of the university in promoting sustainable development and environmental protection.

Modelling Future Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States: National Trends and Racial and Ethnic Disparities

PubMed Central

Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Penalvo, Jose L.; Rehm, Colin D.; Afshin, Ashkan; Danaei, Goodarz; Kypridemos, Chris; Gaziano, Tom; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2016-01-01

Background Accurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts have often not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in CVD mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in CVD mortality and disparities. Methods and Results To forecast US CVD mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period and cohort (APC) effects from 1979–2012, stratified by age, gender and race; which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, SEER single year population estimates, and US Bureau of Statistics 2012 National Population projections. We projected coronary disease and stroke deaths to 2030, first based on constant APC effects at 2012 values, as most commonly done (conventional); and then using more rigorous projections incorporating expected trends in APC effects (trend-based). We primarily evaluated absolute mortality. The conventional model projected total coronary and stroke deaths by 2030 to increase by approximately 18% (67,000 additional coronary deaths/year) and 50% (64,000 additional stroke deaths/year). Conversely, the trend-based model projected that coronary mortality would fall by 2030 by approximately 27% (79,000 fewer deaths/year); and stroke mortality would remain unchanged (200 fewer deaths/year). Health disparities will be improved in stroke deaths, but not coronary deaths. Conclusions After accounting for prior mortality trends and expected demographic shifts, total US coronary deaths are expected to decline, while stroke mortality will remain relatively constant. Health disparities in stroke, but not coronary, deaths will be improved but not eliminated. These APC approaches offer more plausible predictions than conventional estimates. PMID:26846769

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations.

Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey as a tool for conservation: A critique of Bart et al. (2004)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Link, William A.; Nichols, James D.; Royle, J. Andrew

2005-01-01

Bart et al. (2004) develop methods for predicting needed samples for estimation of long-term trends from Count survey data, and they apply these methods to the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). They recommend adding approximately 40% more survey routes ill the BBS to allow for estimation of long-term (i.e., 20 year) trends for a collection of species. We critique several aspects of their analysis and suggest that their focus on long-term trends and expansion of the present survey design will provide limited benefits for conservation because it fails to either enhance the credibility of the survey or better tie the survey to regional management activities. A primary innovation claimed by Bart et al. (2004) is the incorporation of bias in estimation of study planning. We question the value of this approach, as it requires reliable estimates of range of future bias. We show that estimates of bias used by Bart et al. (2004) are speculative. Failure to obtain better estimates of this bias is likely to compromise the credibility of future analyses of the survey. We also note that the generic analysis of population trends that they provide is of questionable validity and is unlikely to be relevant for regions and species of management concern.

U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Recent Trends and Prospects for the Future

EIA Publications

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine recent trends and prospects for the future of the U.S. natural gas market. Natural gas prices rose dramatically in 2000 and remained high through the first part of 2001, raising concerns about the future of natural gas prices and potential for natural gas to fuel the growth of the U.S. economy.

Hospital web-site marketing: analysis, issues, and trends.

PubMed

Sanchez, P M; Maier-Donati, P

1999-01-01

As hospitals continue to incorporate web technology into their overall marketing and communications strategies, they face several issues which we explore in this paper. Hospitals' effectiveness in dealing with these issues will affect the benefits received from this technology. We provide an exploratory analysis of current hospital web sites and develop implications for future web site development. Likewise, recommendations based on our research are also provided.

Pathfinder. Volume 9, Number 1, January/February 2011

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-01

that users can access global foundation, imagery, product and activity layers online whenever and wherever they need to, much the way we access data...Professional Development Strengthening mission performance starts with an expert, diverse and collaborative global work force that rapidly shifts and...universities. The RAND study addressed two broad ques- tions: How future global development and trends result in new operational demands being placed on

Post-Secondary Education in the South Pacific: Present Patterns and Future Options. Educational Development in the Small States of the Commonwealth Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crocombe, Ron; Crocombe, Marjorie Tuainekore

This book contains the results of a study examining post-secondary education in the South Pacific by surveying the number of educational opportunities currently offered, by analyzing key trends, and by comparing developments in the Cook Islands and the Solomon Islands. Following an introductory section on terminology and the region, the first main…

Overview of Issues and Notes for Discussion. Intergovernmental Conference on Policies for Higher Education in the 1980s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

Based on the 1981 conference on policies for higher education of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, recent trends in higher education and prospects for the future are considered, along with approaches to guide the development of policies during the decade. The chief areas of concern are as follows: access to higher…

Recommended system of application and development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei

2018-04-01

A recommender system is a project that helps users identify their wishes and needs. The recommender system has been successfully applied to many e-commerce environments, such as news, film, music, books and other areas of recommendation. This paper mainly discusses the application of recommendation technology in software engineering, data and knowledge engineering, configurable projects and persuasion technology, and summarizes the development trend of recommendation technology in the future.

Telerehabilitation robotics: bright lights, big future?

PubMed

Carignan, Craig R; Krebs, Hermano I

2006-01-01

The potential for remote diagnosis and treatment over the Internet using robotics is now a reality. The state of the art is exemplified by several Internet applications, and we explore the current trends in developing new systems. We review the technical challenges that lie ahead, along with some potential solutions. Some promising results for a new bilateral system involving two InMotion2 robots are presented. Finally, we discuss the future direction and commercial outlook for rehabilitation robots over the next 15 years.

New Development of Power Distribution System Resulting from Dispersed Generations and Current Interruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokomizu, Yasunobu

Dispersed generation systems, such as micro gas-turbines and fuel cells, have been installed on some of commercial facilities. Smaller dispersed generators like solar photovoltaics have been also located on the several of individual homes. The trends in the introduction of the these generation systems seem to continue in the future and to cause the power system to have the enormous number of the dispersed generation systems. The present report discusses the near-future power distribution systems.

Analysis of Science and Technology Trend Based on Word Usage in Digitized Books

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Jinhyuk; Kim, Pan-Jun; Jeong, Hawoong

2013-03-01

Throughout mankind's history, forecasting and predicting future has been a long-lasting interest to our society. Many fortune-tellers have tried to forecast the future by ``divine'' items. Sci-fi writers have also imagined what the future would look like. However most of them have been illogical and unscientific. Meanwhile, scientists have also attempted to discover future trend of science. Many researchers have used quantitative models to study how new ideas are used and spread. Besides the modeling works, in the early 21st century, the rise of data science has provided another prospect of forecasting future. However many studies have focused on very limited set of period or age, due to the limitations of dataset. Hence, many questions still remained unanswered. Fortunately, Google released a new dataset named ``Google N-Gram Dataset.'' This dataset provides us with 5 million words worth of literature dating from 1520 to 2008, and this is nearly 4% of publications ever printed. With this new time-varying dataset, we studied the spread and development of technologies by searching ``Science and Technology'' related words from 1800 to 2000. By statistical analysis, some general scaling laws were discovered. And finally, we determined factors that strongly affect the lifecycle of a word.

COMPUTER SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR ESTIMATING CHEMICAL TOXICITY: PRESENT CAPABILITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS

EPA Science Inventory

Computer Support Systems for Estimating Chemical Toxicity: Present Capabilities and Future Trends

A wide variety of computer-based artificial intelligence (AI) and decision support systems exist currently to aid in the assessment of toxicity for environmental chemicals. T...

Detecting seasonal and cyclical trends in agricultural runoff water quality-hypothesis tests and block bootstrap power analysis.

PubMed

Uddameri, Venkatesh; Singaraju, Sreeram; Hernandez, E Annette

2018-02-21

Seasonal and cyclic trends in nutrient concentrations at four agricultural drainage ditches were assessed using a dataset generated from a multivariate, multiscale, multiyear water quality monitoring effort in the agriculturally dominant Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) River Watershed in South Texas. An innovative bootstrap sampling-based power analysis procedure was developed to evaluate the ability of Mann-Whitney and Noether tests to discern trends and to guide future monitoring efforts. The Mann-Whitney U test was able to detect significant changes between summer and winter nutrient concentrations at sites with lower depths and unimpeded flows. Pollutant dilution, non-agricultural loadings, and in-channel flow structures (weirs) masked the effects of seasonality. The detection of cyclical trends using the Noether test was highest in the presence of vegetation mainly for total phosphorus and oxidized nitrogen (nitrite + nitrate) compared to dissolved phosphorus and reduced nitrogen (total Kjeldahl nitrogen-TKN). Prospective power analysis indicated that while increased monitoring can lead to higher statistical power, the effect size (i.e., the total number of trend sequences within a time-series) had a greater influence on the Noether test. Both Mann-Whitney and Noether tests provide complementary information on seasonal and cyclic behavior of pollutant concentrations and are affected by different processes. The results from these statistical tests when evaluated in the context of flow, vegetation, and in-channel hydraulic alterations can help guide future data collection and monitoring efforts. The study highlights the need for long-term monitoring of agricultural drainage ditches to properly discern seasonal and cyclical trends.

[Concepts of development of the neurosurgical operative environment in the 21st century].

PubMed

Apuzzo, M; Liu, C

2002-01-01

The operative environment has to a large extent defines the "state of the art and science" of neurosurgery, which is now undergoing rapid reinvention. In order to remain current, each neurosurgeon should periodically reconsider their personal operative environment and its functional design with reference to modernity of practice as currently defined. Historical trends and their analysis offer predictive guides for development of such settings with an eye toward the future. Examination of technical developments in decade timeframes defines the progress in capability and need. Progressive minimalism of manipulation and the presence of operative definition with increasing precision are evident, with concurrent miniaturization of attendant computerized support systems, sensors, robotic interfaces, and imaging devices. These trends and developments offer the opportunity for simplificity of setting design with higher functionality as the desired endpoint.

Review of concentrating solar thermal power industry in China: Status quo, problems, trend and countermeasures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Jiajun

2018-01-01

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) industry is a strategic emerging industry in China. Its further development is of great significance for promoting the energy revolution, achieving energy saving and emission reduction. In this paper, China’s CSP industry is systematically analysed. First of all, the status quo is elaborated from the perspectives of relevant policies and regulations, market and generation technology development. Secondly, the problems and the underlying reasons of China’s CSP industry are deeply studied. On this basis, the future trends of CSP are expounded on the three levels of policy, market and power generation technology. Finally, a series of feasible countermeasures are put forward, designed to promote the development of CSP industry and the transformation of energy structure.

NASA trend analysis procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-01-01

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

Are there trends towards drier hydrological conditions in Central America?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, H. G.

2013-12-01

A summary of hydrological projections at the end of the century from 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) is presented; and several hydrometeorological parameters are analyzed to validate if there are hydroclimatological trends during the observational period (1982-2005) consistent with the GCMs results. At the end of the century the median of 30 GCM simulations projects a drier future for Tegucigalpa and San Jose, with a marked increment in evapotranspiration in the first half of the rainy season along with reductions of soil moisture. With respect to the observations (1982-2005): 1) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index showed negative trends in the North Pacific coast of Costa Rica, the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and especially in southern Mexico (except the Yucatan Peninsula). Positive trends were found in the several parts of Central America, 2) the Palmer Drought Severity Index showed strong and consistent trends from Nicaragua to the North of Central America and southern Mexico (not including Yucatan), consistent with the direction of GCM projections; 3) negative precipitation trends in satellite data were found in Nicaragua, with strong trends in its Caribbean coast; 4) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis precipitation showed strong negative trends in northern Central America, the Central Valley, the Dry Pacific of Costa Rica and the South-Pacific coast of Nicaragua, all consistent with the direction of GCM projections; and 5) station data showed no significant trends however, and 6) Reanalysis' temperature showed positive trends in southern Mexico (not including Yucatan) and negative trends in El Salvador. It can be concluded that several trends in drought indexes and precipitation are consistent with the future projected by the GCMs; that is, with some exceptions some of the trends were validated towards a drier future for the region, especially in the northern part.

100 years of training and development research: What we know and where we should go.

PubMed

Bell, Bradford S; Tannenbaum, Scott I; Ford, J Kevin; Noe, Raymond A; Kraiger, Kurt

2017-03-01

Training and development research has a long tradition within applied psychology dating back to the early 1900s. Over the years, not only has interest in the topic grown but there have been dramatic changes in both the science and practice of training and development. In the current article, we examine the evolution of training and development research using articles published in the Journal of Applied Psychology ( JAP ) as a primary lens to analyze what we have learned and to identify where future research is needed. We begin by reviewing the timeline of training and development research in JAP from 1918 to the present in order to elucidate the critical trends and advances that define each decade. These trends include the emergence of more theory-driven training research, greater consideration of the role of the trainee and training context, examination of learning that occurs outside the classroom, and understanding training's impact across different levels of analysis. We then examine in greater detail the evolution of 4 key research themes: training criteria, trainee characteristics, training design and delivery, and the training context. In each area, we describe how the focus of research has shifted over time and highlight important developments. We conclude by offering several ideas for future training and development research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Projecting the Demand for Dental Care in 2040.

PubMed

Manski, Richard J; Meyerhoefer, Chad D

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a forward-thinking assessment of the underlying factors likely to impact trends in dental care demand and the need for dental providers in 2020, 2025, and beyond. Dental workforce trends and their likely impact on the need for dentists are a function of predicted dental care demand, which will in turn be determined by the size and characteristics of our population size, economic outlook, the state of public and private dental care insurance, trends in dental care delivery, professionally determined dental care need, and population health beliefs. Projecting rates of dental care utilization far into the future is difficult because projections must be made using historical data, and established trends may not persist if there is structural change in the future. Nonetheless, when structural change occurs, it does not typically affect all aspects of the economy, so there is value in describing the likely future impact of current trends. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

The Impact of New Trends in Satellite Launches on the Orbital Debris Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karacalioglu, Arif Goektug; Stupl, Jan

2016-01-01

The main goal of this study is to examine the impact of new trends in satellite launch activities on the orbital debris environment and collision risk. As a foundation for the study, we developed a deployment scenario for satellites and associated rocket bodies based on publicly announced future missions. The upcoming orbital injection technologies, such as the new launch vehicles dedicated for small spacecraft and propulsive interstages, are also considered in this scenario. We then used a simulation tool developed in-house to propagate the objects within this scenario using variable-sized time-steps as small as one second to detect conjunctions between objects. The simulation makes it possible to follow the short- and long-term effects of a particular satellite or constellation in the space environment. Likewise, the effects of changes in the debris environment on a particular satellite or constellation can be evaluated. It is our hope that the results of this paper and further utilization of the developed simulation tool will assist in the investigation of more accurate deorbiting metrics to replace the generic 25-year disposal guidelines, as well as to guide future launches toward more sustainable and safe orbits.

Market-based demand forecasting promotes informed strategic financial planning.

PubMed

Beech, A J

2001-11-01

Market-based demand forecasting is a method of estimating future demand for a healthcare organization's services by using a broad range of data that describe the nature of demand within the organization's service area. Such data include the primary and secondary service areas, the service-area populations by various demographic groupings, discharge utilization rates, market size, and market share by service line and organizationwide. Based on observable market dynamics, strategic planners can make a variety of explicit assumptions about future trends regarding these data to develop scenarios describing potential future demand. Financial planners then can evaluate each scenario to determine its potential effect on selected financial and operational measures, such as operating margin, days cash on hand, and debt-service coverage, and develop a strategic financial plan that covers a range of contingencies.

The article of the future.

PubMed

Souza, Eliana Pereira Salles de; Cabrera, Eliana Márcia Sotello; Braile, Domingo Marcolino

2010-01-01

Technological advances and the Internet have contributed to the increased disclosure and updating of knowledge and science. Scientific papers are considered the best form of disclosure of information and have been undergoing many changes, not on their way of development, but on the structure of publication. The Future paper, a name for this new structure, uses hypermediatic resources, allowing a quick, easy and organized access to these items online. The exchange of information, comments and criticisms can be performed in real time, providing agility in science disclosure. The trend for the future of documents, both from professionals or enterprises, is the "cloud computing", in which all documents will be developed and updated with the use of various equipments: computer, palm, netbook, ipad, without need to have the software installed on your computer, requiring only an Internet connection.

Core Noise - Increasing Importance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hultgren, Lennart S.

2011-01-01

This presentation is a technical summary of and outlook for NASA-internal and NASA-sponsored external research on core (combustor and turbine) noise funded by the Fundamental Aeronautics Program Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) Project. Sections of the presentation cover: the SFW system-level noise metrics for the 2015, 2020, and 2025 timeframes; turbofan design trends and their aeroacoustic implications; the emerging importance of core noise and its relevance to the SFW Reduced-Perceived-Noise Technical Challenge; and the current research activities in the core-noise area, with additional details given about the development of a high-fidelity combustor-noise prediction capability as well as activities supporting the development of improved reduced-order, physics-based models for combustor-noise prediction. The need for benchmark data for validation of high-fidelity and modeling work and the value of a potential future diagnostic facility for testing of core-noise-reduction concepts are indicated. The NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program has the principal objective of overcoming today's national challenges in air transportation. The SFW Reduced-Perceived-Noise Technical Challenge aims to develop concepts and technologies to dramatically reduce the perceived aircraft noise outside of airport boundaries. This reduction of aircraft noise is critical to enabling the anticipated large increase in future air traffic. Noise generated in the jet engine core, by sources such as the compressor, combustor, and turbine, can be a significant contribution to the overall noise signature at low-power conditions, typical of approach flight. At high engine power during takeoff, jet and fan noise have traditionally dominated over core noise. However, current design trends and expected technological advances in engine-cycle design as well as noise-reduction methods are likely to reduce non-core noise even at engine-power points higher than approach. In addition, future low-emission combustor designs could increase the combustion-noise component. The trend towards high-power-density cores also means that the noise generated in the low-pressure turbine will likely increase. Consequently, the combined result from these emerging changes will be to elevate the overall importance of turbomachinery core noise, which will need to be addressed in order to meet future noise goals.

Future development programs. [for defining the emission problem and developing hardware to reduce pollutant levels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedrziewski, S.

1976-01-01

The emission problem or source points were defined and new materials, hardware, or operational procedures were developed to exercise the trends defined by the data collected. The programs to reduce the emission output of aircraft powerplants were listed. Continued establishment of baseline emissions for various engine models, continued characterization of effect of production tolerances on emissions, carbureted engine development and flight tests, and cylinder cooling/fin design programs were several of the programs investigated.

Topics in Chemical Instrumentation: An Introduction to Supercritical Fluid Chromatography--Part 2. Applications and Future Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmieri, Margo D.

1989-01-01

Discussed are selected application and future trends in supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC). The greatest application for SFC involves those analytes that are difficult to separate using GC or LC methods. Optimum conditions for SFC are examined. Provided are several example chromatograms. (MVL)

Health Policy and the Economy: Guessing about the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helms, Robert B.

1989-01-01

This paper looks at demographic and financial trends that can have an effect on the health care sector, the government reliance on projections of budget expenditures and the current budget deficit, and trends in health care expenditures and effects on the future of Social Security and Medicare. (MLW)

Libraries and the Chief Information Officer: Implications and Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodsworth, Anne

1988-01-01

Describes the roles and responsibilities of Chief Information Officers (CIOs) in research universities and presents five models of the position. Future trends and needs for management of converging information technologies are then discussed with attention to implications for libraries. Qualifications of the CIO and the future outlook of the…

Future Trends in the Kinesiology Sciences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knudson, Duane

2016-01-01

Kinesiology emerged from its preventative medicine and education roots to establish itself as a recognized field of inquiry with numerous sub-disciplines. This article presents four trends in modern science that will likely influence the future of kinesiology sciences. Will recent increases in greater scientific specialization be overcome by the…

Physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of continental rifts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramberg, I. B.; Morgan, P.

1984-01-01

Rifts may be defined as zones beneath which the entire lithosphere has ruptured in extension. They are widespread and occur in a variety of tectonic settings, and range up to 2,600 m.y. in age. The object of this review is to highlight characteristic features of modern and ancient rifts, to emphasize differences and similarities in order to help characterize evolutionary trends, to identify physical conditions favorable for initiation as well as termination of rifting, and to provide constraints for future modeling studies of rifting. Rifts are characterized on the basis of their structural, geomorphic, magmatic and geophysical features and the diverse character of these features and their evolutionary trends through time are discussed. Mechanisms of rifting are critically examined in terms of the physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of rifts, and it is concluded that while simple models can give valuable insight into specific processes of rifting, individual rifts can rarely, if ever, be characterized by well defined trends predicted by these models. More data are required to clearly define evolutionary trends, and the models require development to incorporate the effects of lithospheric heterogeneities and complex geologic histories.

Future trends in Neuroimaging: Neural processes as expressed within real-life contexts

PubMed Central

Hasson, Uri; Honey, Christopher J.

2012-01-01

Human neuroscience research has changed dramatically with the proliferation and refinement of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) technologies. The early years of the technique were largely devoted to methods development and validation, and to the coarse-grained mapping of functional topographies. This paper will cover three emerging trends that we believe will be central to fMRI research in the coming decade. In the first section of this paper, we argue in favor of a shift from fine-grained functional labeling toward the characterization of underlying neural processes. In the second section, we examine three methodological developments that have improved our ability to characterize underlying neural processes using fMRI. In the last section, we highlight the trend towards more ecologically valid fMRI experiments, which engage neural circuits in real life conditions. We note that many of our cognitive faculties emerge from interpersonal interactions, and that a complete understanding of the cognitive processes within a single individual's brain cannot be achieved without understanding the interactions among individuals. Looking forward to the future of human fMRI, we conclude that the major constraint on new discoveries will not be related to the spatiotemporal resolution of the BOLD signal, which is constantly improving, but rather to the precision of our hypotheses and the creativity of our methods for testing them. PMID:22348879

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a warming climate will not directly increase the water demand for crop agriculture in North-West Bangladesh but will make the future agricultural water management more complex by bringing more variations and uncertainty in the system.

The present and the future of breast cancer burden in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Ezzeldin M; Zeeneldin, Ahmed A; Sadiq, Bakr Bin; Ezzat, Adnan A

2008-01-01

Despite the low cancer incidence in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the country must be ready to face the challenge of foreseeable increase in cancer burden attributed to growth and aging of population. This work was designed to study female breast cancer as a model to assess future cancer burden and the impact on healthcare resources. Cancer statistics for the KSA were compared with that for the USA. The Joinpoint regression program was used to identify changes in secular trends, while the GLOBOCAN 2002 software projected future incidence and mortality. In the KSA, the age-standardized cancer rate (ASR) is 61 per 100,000 population, while the median age at diagnosis is 54 and 49 years for men and women, respectively. Fitting the ASR for breast cancer did not show any significant trend over a 10-year calendar period (16.2-18.2 per 100,000), a pattern that was similar to that for the USA in the prescreening mammography era. Considering the growth and aging of population and using conservative estimates for the annual percent change in incidence (increase) and mortality (decrease) by 2025, incidence and mortality cases are expected to increase by about 350% and 160%, respectively. In developing countries, future cancer rates could demonstrate a considerable increase and enormous demands on healthcare resources. The present work may provide an impetus to study other prevalent cancer types particularly in developing countries.

Results of the 1992 State-Wide Business and Industry Survey.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarrett, Carole, Comp.; And Others

As part of an effort to develop courses and programs that reflect California business and industry's current and future needs, two studies were performed by Solano Community College to examine statewide trends and issues related to office automation and marketing and management. In conducting the study of office automation, 5,000 surveys were…

The Changed/Changing Educational Scene: The State of the Art.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bunke, Clinton R.; And Others

A special attempt was made to organize this document in terms of the requirements of its readership (members of the Commission on Children, White House Conference, 1980). To this end, the first section, entitled "Gaining Perspective," provides an overview of developments, expectations, issues, dynamics, culture shock, and future trends in…

Cinematic College: "National Lampoon's Animal House" Teaches Theories of Student Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tucciarone, Krista M.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this qualitative study is to analyze how potential college-bound and current college students make meaning about the higher education experience from the legendary film that is pivotal in the American college culture, sets the trend for future college-themed films, and is a national phenomenon--"National Lampoon's Animal…

Evolution of Counseling in Jamaica: Past, Present, and Future Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, Geoffrey J.; Palmer, Ransford W.; Payne-Borden, Jacqueline

2012-01-01

Counseling maintains a small yet growing presence in Jamaica as a profession. Practitioners are confronted with several societal problems. The authors provide a historical overview of Jamaica and a synopsis of the development of counseling. The emergence of counseling services through the limitations of psychiatry and psychology sets the stage for…

Resource Sharing of Micro-Software, or, What Ever Happened to All That CP/M Compatibility?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeYoung, Barbara

1984-01-01

Explores incompatible operating systems as the basic reason why software packages will not work on different microcomputers; defines operating system; explores compatibility issues surrounding the IBM MS-DOS; and presents two future trends in hardware and software developments which indicate a return to true compatibility. (Author/MBR)

Shedding Light on Students' Technology Preferences: Implications for Academic Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mirriahi, Negin; Alonzo, Dennis

2015-01-01

This study built on previous research in 2010 to determine changes to students' current use of and expectations for future integration of technologies in their learning experience. The findings reveal a continued trend of conservative technology use amongst students but with a growing demand for more integration of technologies for assessment and…

Professional Counseling in Kenya: History, Current Status, and Future Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okech, Jane E. Atieno; Kimemia, Muthoni

2012-01-01

The authors examine the history and development of the counseling profession in Kenya. This profession is deeply rooted in responses to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the emergence of mental health needs created by the impact of political and community-based violence, increasing student unrest in public institutions, and government efforts to provide…

Development of the Long-Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) Network: Current status and future trends

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Long-term research conducted at multiple scales is critical to assessing the effects of key long term drivers (e.g., global population growth; land-use change; increased competition for natural resources; climate variability and change) on our ability to sustain or enhance agricultural production to...

Links between scale and neotropical migratory bird populations

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch

1994-01-01

Recent concerns about the future for migratory birds, particularly those that migrate to the Tropics, have led to the development of a variety of new research and education initiatives addressing avian population ecology and conservation. Research that focuses on the relationships between migrant population trends, geographical patterns, and spatial and temporal scales...

Opportunities for cellulose nanomaterials in packaging films: a review and future trends

Treesearch

Nicole M. Stark

2016-01-01

Performance requirements for packaging films may include barrier properties, transparency, flexibility, and tensile strength. Conventional packaging materials such as plastic films and laminates, are typically made from petroleum-based polymers. Currently, there is a drive to develop sustainable packaging materials. These alternative materials must be able to be...

The Tense Situation of Slavic: Past, Present, Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Henry R., Jr.

1998-01-01

Discusses the challenges and difficulties of Slavic languages, a field that is notoriously cyclical and is currently at the bottom of a cycle. The article chronicles the history of Slavic studies in relation to political developments since World War II, draws parallels between current trends in Slavic and other modern language programs, and sees…

The Influence of the Knowledge Society: Trends in Adult Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasworm, Carol

2011-01-01

Current understandings of a knowledge economy have been emerging from two defining forces: the rise in quality and intensity of knowledge as a key commodity for economic development and the increasing globalization through information technology of both knowledge exchange and economic activities. The future of adult higher education is focused on…

Massachusetts Study of Teacher Supply and Demand: Trends and Projections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levin, Jesse; Berg-Jacobson, Alex; Atchison, Drew; Lee, Katelyn; Vontsolos, Emily

2015-01-01

In April 2015, the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (ESE) commissioned American Institutes for Research (AIR) to develop a comprehensive set of 10-year projections of teacher supply and demand in order to inform planning for future workforce needs. This included state-level projections both in the aggregate, as well…

On the Emergence of New Computer Technologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asaolu, Olumuyiwa Sunday

2006-01-01

This work presents a review of the development and application of computers. It traces the highlights of emergent computing technologies shaping our world. Recent trends in hardware and software deployment are chronicled as well as their impact on various segments of the society. The expectations for the future are also discussed along with…

Reaching Out, But In Which Direction? The Future Focus of Academic Outreach Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Roberto

1997-01-01

A new trend in academic outreach programs, initiated to inspire and motivate minority students to prepare generally for college, is to create curriculum-based programs targeting students' specific academic or career interests. The MESA (Mathematics, Science, Engineering Achievement) Program serves as a model for development of other…

Toward the Thinking Curriculum: Current Cognitive Research. 1989 ASCD Yearbook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Resnick, Lauren B., Ed.; Klopfer, Leopold E., Ed.

A project of the Center for the Study of Learning at the University of Pittsburgh, this yearbook combines the two major trends/concerns impacting the future of educational development for the next decade: knowledge and thinking. The yearbook comprises the following chapters: (1) "Toward the Thinking Curriculum: An Overview" (Lauren B.…

The Development of Professional Counseling in Uganda: Current Status and Future Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Senyonyi, Ruth M.; Ochieng, Lois A.; Sells, James

2012-01-01

Professional counseling in Uganda has foundations in traditional cultures of its peoples, guidance offered in schools, and counseling to curb the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Currently, a definitive professional counselor profile in Uganda is being established. The Uganda Counselling Association continues the process of seeking legal authority to regulate…

The Third Wave: Future Trends in International Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mazzarol, Tim; Soutar, Geoffrey Norman; Seng, Michael Sim Yaw

2003-01-01

Describes how the second half of the twentieth century saw the development of a global market in international education, so that by the 1990s, the systems of many host nations (e.g., Australia, Canada, United Stated, United Kingdom, and New Zealand) had become more market focused and were adopting professional marketing strategies to recruit…

Focus on the Future: Environmental Scanning at Columbia Basin College.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knutzen, Judi, Comp.

As the first step of the process of developing a strategic plan, the Institutional Research Director at Columbia Basin College (Washington) was asked to perform an environmental scan. Environmental scanning is a careful and continuous process of tracking and analyzing trends relevant to an institution's goals. It involves making forecasts of…

Online Technology and Counseling Microskill Development: A Mixed-Methods Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, J. Scott

2013-01-01

Emergent popularity and student consumer/educational administrator demand for online technology in counselor education is also increasing the need to research its impact and potential effectiveness/ineffectiveness as a pedagogical tool. Research shows that the trend toward online coursework is likely to increase in the future and also that the new…

The Marketing Ethics Course: Current State and Future Directions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrell, O. C.; Keig, Dawn L.

2013-01-01

Many of the critical issues facing modern businesses can be considered marketing ethics issues. It follows that as the field of business ethics has evolved, marketing has played a key role in the development of business ethics education. Despite a general trend of increasingly larger amounts of ethical content included in business curricula, prior…

The Corporate University Landscape in Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andresen, Maike; Lichtenberger, Bianka

2007-01-01

Purpose: The paper seeks first to present an overview of the corporate university landscape in Germany contrasting it with the US-American corporate university market and, second, to outline the development in Germany during the last 15 years and to have a look at future trends such as learning alliances. Design/methodology/approach: The…

Korean Content Management in e-Higher Education: Here and Hereafter

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Insook

2006-01-01

Current trends in the management of e-learning content in Korean higher education are reviewed, along with important issues for future development. South Korean technological infrastructure, among the most advanced in the world, provides the necessary conditions for e-learning to proliferate, but as e-learning in higher education approaches a…

Programmes of Educational Technology in China: Looking Backward, Thinking Forward

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuyin, Xu; Jianli, Jiao

2010-01-01

There is a history of programmes in educational technology in colleges and universities in China going back about 70 years. This paper briefly reviews the developmental history of the educational technology programme in China, elaborates the status-quo of the programme and looks ahead into the future trends of educational technology development in…

Actuarial considerations of medical malpractice evaluations in M&As.

PubMed

Frese, Richard C

2014-11-01

To best project an actuarial estimate for medical malpractice exposure for a merger and acquisition, a organization's leaders should consider the following factors, among others: How to support an unbiased actuarial estimation. Experience of the actuary. The full picture of the organization's malpractice coverage. The potential for future loss development. Frequency and severity trends.

Piloting a European Employer Survey on Skill Needs: Illustrative Findings. Research Paper No 36

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sofroniou, Nicholas, Ed.; Zukersteinova, Alena, Ed.

2013-01-01

Today, information and data on skills development come mainly from household and employees surveys: trends in the labour market, demand and supply of skills, data on skill mismatch and skills obsolescence. Recurrent analysis of individual cross-sectional data and their extrapolation into the future indicates significant structural changes over…

Novel trends in engineered milk products.

PubMed

Chandrapala, Jayani; Zisu, Bogdan

2016-08-01

Food engineering within the dairy sector is an ever developing field of study purely based on the application of engineering principles and concepts to any aspect of dairy product manufacturing and operations. The last 25 years of science and technology devoted to milk and milk products have led to major advances. The purpose of this paper is to review the history and current status of some engineered milk products and to speculate regarding future trends. Much of the advancement has been directed towards production capacity, mechanisation, automation, hygiene within the processing plant, safety, extensions in shelf life, and new product introductions that bring variety and convenience for the consumer. Significant advancements in product quality have been made, many of these arising from improved knowledge of the functional properties of ingredients and their impact on structure and texture. In addition, further improvements focused on energy efficiency and environmental sustainability have been made and will be needed in the future.

Trends and Future Challenges in Sampling the Deep Terrestrial Biosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkins, Michael J.; Daly, Rebecca; Mouser, Paula J.

2014-09-12

Research in the deep terrestrial biosphere is driven by interest in novel biodiversity and metabolisms, biogeochemical cycling, and the impact of human activities on this ecosystem. As this interest continues to grow, it is important to ensure that when subsurface investigations are proposed, materials recovered from the subsurface are sampled and preserved in an appropriate manner to limit contamination and ensure preservation of accurate microbial, geochemical, and mineralogical signatures. On February 20th, 2014, a workshop on “Trends and Future Challenges in Sampling The Deep Subsurface” was coordinated in Columbus, Ohio by The Ohio State University and West Virginia University faculty,more » and sponsored by The Ohio State University and the Sloan Foundation’s Deep Carbon Observatory. The workshop aims were to identify and develop best practices for the collection, preservation, and analysis of terrestrial deep rock samples. This document summarizes the information shared during this workshop.« less

Trends and future challenges in sampling the deep terrestrial biosphere.

PubMed

Wilkins, Michael J; Daly, Rebecca A; Mouser, Paula J; Trexler, Ryan; Sharma, Shihka; Cole, David R; Wrighton, Kelly C; Biddle, Jennifer F; Denis, Elizabeth H; Fredrickson, Jim K; Kieft, Thomas L; Onstott, Tullis C; Peterson, Lee; Pfiffner, Susan M; Phelps, Tommy J; Schrenk, Matthew O

2014-01-01

Research in the deep terrestrial biosphere is driven by interest in novel biodiversity and metabolisms, biogeochemical cycling, and the impact of human activities on this ecosystem. As this interest continues to grow, it is important to ensure that when subsurface investigations are proposed, materials recovered from the subsurface are sampled and preserved in an appropriate manner to limit contamination and ensure preservation of accurate microbial, geochemical, and mineralogical signatures. On February 20th, 2014, a workshop on "Trends and Future Challenges in Sampling The Deep Subsurface" was coordinated in Columbus, Ohio by The Ohio State University and West Virginia University faculty, and sponsored by The Ohio State University and the Sloan Foundation's Deep Carbon Observatory. The workshop aims were to identify and develop best practices for the collection, preservation, and analysis of terrestrial deep rock samples. This document summarizes the information shared during this workshop.

An Overview of Meat Industry in Sri Lanka: A Comprehensive Review

PubMed Central

Alahakoon, Amali U.; Jo, Cheorun

2016-01-01

Livestock is considered as one of the most important segments in agriculture since animal husbandry was practiced for centuries as a backyard system by rural families. Livestock plays as a powerful tool in rural development where meat industry contributes a dominant part. Meat and meat products become a vital component in the diet, which had been one of the main protein sources traditionally as well. The development in the livestock and meat industry of Sri Lanka basically depends upon religious, cultural, and economic factors. There is a growing demand for processed meat products in Sri Lankan urban culture and several large scale processors entered the business during the past few decades. The consumption of meat and meat products shows an upward trend in Sri Lanka during the last decade and is anticipated to increase further in future. The growth potential of the local meat industry is considerably high owing to the improvement of the market and consumer perception. The present status, trends, and future prospects for the Sri Lankan meat industry with respect to production, consumption, processing, marketing, and improvement are discussed in this review. PMID:27194920

Astronomy in Cuba: practice and trends. An effort to develop a non-formal education programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomares, Oscar A.

In the recent past years, a daily stronger movement of non-professional astronomers has become the center of development for astronomy, a subject of study practically absent now from the national education system in Cuba. A key roll in this movement has been played by the professional staff of the Department of Astronomy of the Institute of Geophysics and Astronomy. As direct outcome of this joint effort between astronomers and amateurs is the research on meteors and comets, presented in two national and one international scientific meeetings. The opening last year of the "Palacio de las Ciencias" in the main building of the country, "El Capitolio Nacional", the participation in conferences and workshops of professional astronomers facing the general public, and their participation in prime-time TV and radio programs open a way for the growth of astronomical knowledge among the Cuban people. Two national meeetings gathering together professional and non- professional astronomers have been held already. Future works in the NEOs international campaign are foreseen. Practice and trends of astronomy in Cuba clarify views of our future in the oldest natural science.

An Overview of Meat Industry in Sri Lanka: A Comprehensive Review.

PubMed

Alahakoon, Amali U; Jo, Cheorun; Jayasena, Dinesh D

2016-01-01

Livestock is considered as one of the most important segments in agriculture since animal husbandry was practiced for centuries as a backyard system by rural families. Livestock plays as a powerful tool in rural development where meat industry contributes a dominant part. Meat and meat products become a vital component in the diet, which had been one of the main protein sources traditionally as well. The development in the livestock and meat industry of Sri Lanka basically depends upon religious, cultural, and economic factors. There is a growing demand for processed meat products in Sri Lankan urban culture and several large scale processors entered the business during the past few decades. The consumption of meat and meat products shows an upward trend in Sri Lanka during the last decade and is anticipated to increase further in future. The growth potential of the local meat industry is considerably high owing to the improvement of the market and consumer perception. The present status, trends, and future prospects for the Sri Lankan meat industry with respect to production, consumption, processing, marketing, and improvement are discussed in this review.

The influence of globalization on medical regulation: a descriptive analysis of international medical graduates registered through alternative licensure routes in Ontario.

PubMed

Yen, Wendy; Hodwitz, Kathryn; Thakkar, Niels; Martimianakis, Maria Athina Tina; Faulkner, Dan

2016-12-01

The increasing globalization of the medical profession has influenced health policy, health human resource planning, and medical regulation in Canada. Since the early 2000s, numerous policy initiatives have been created to facilitate the entry of international medical graduates (IMGs) into the Canadian workforce. In Ontario, the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO) developed alternative licensure routes to increase the ability of qualified IMGs to obtain licenses to practice. The current study provides demographic and descriptive information about the IMGs registered through the CPSO's alternative licensure routes between 2000 and 2012. An analysis of the characteristics and career trajectories of all IMGs practicing in the province sheds light on broader globalization trends and raises questions about the future of health human resource planning in Canada. As the medical profession becomes increasingly globalized, health policy and regulation will continue to be influenced by trends in international migration, concerns about global health equity, and the shifting demographics of the Canadian physician workforce. Implications for future policy development in the complex landscape of medical education and practice are discussed.

REVIEW ARTICLE: Sensors for automotive telematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, J. D.; Austin, L.

2000-02-01

This article reviews the current practice in sensors and sensor applications for automotive and traffic-control systems. Sensors to control engine fuelling, ignition and transmission (known as the powertrain) are reviewed and the likely course of future development is discussed in the light of regulatory and market requirements as well as trends in sensor design and manufacture. Sensor needs for suspension, braking and control of traction are also reviewed and the likely introduction of wheel and tyre sensors to enhance driving safety is discussed. The recent trend towards vehicle-mounted devices to sense the vehicle's environment (such as radar, optical, ultrasound, capacitive and image-based systems) and the implications of the introduction of safety-critical automotive systems such as adaptive cruise control are discussed. Sensors for initiating the deployment of safety systems such as airbags, together with transducers for disconnecting fuel pumps and vehicle batteries in the event of a crash, are reviewed. The paper includes a brief discussion of highway-based sensors for measuring vehicle speed and presence and concludes with a discussion of the likely future developments in the field.

Population growth rate and energy consumption correlations: Implications for the future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheffield, J.

1998-01-01

The fertility rate for women and the related population growth rate, for numerous developing (transitional) countries, show a downward trend with increasing annual per capita energy use. On the assumption that such historic trends will continue, estimates are made for some simple cases of the energy demands required to stabilize the world`s population in the period 2,100 to 2,150. An assessment is then made of how these energy demands might be met, capitalizing as much as possible on the indigenous energy resources for each of the ten major regions of the world: North America, Latin America, Europe OECD, Former Sovietmore » Union and Central and Eastern Europe, China, Pacific OECD, East Asia, South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Consideration is also given to the potential need to limit carbon emissions because of global warming concerns. The study highlights the crucial nature of energy efficiency improvements and the need to utilize all energy sources, if the world is to find a sustainable future with an improved standard of living for the developing world.« less

Trends in the energy market after World War II (WW II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swart, K.

1992-01-01

After WW II, trends developed in the energy markets that continued virtually unbroken till 1972. The main trend was the strong growth of oil as a percentage of total energy consumed. Not only did oil monopolise the rapidly growing transportation market but it also penetrated rapidly into the stationary energy market. In the second half of the sixties, after the discovery of the Groningen Gas field, pipeline natural gas took a sizable share of the domestic and commercial energy market in Western Europe. This market was mainly fed by gas from Groningen, the North Sea and Russia. Another trend was the steady growth of electricity as a percentage of the stationary market partly based on nuclear energy. Coal was the loser. This rather steady development was upset by the first oil crisis in 1972. This crisis was a political crisis which had little to do with the physical availability of crude oil. Between 1972 and the present, periods of reasonable price stability were interrupted by violent swings in the price of oil and gas. Moreover, during this period the environmental movement became a major influence in the energy field. Notwithstanding the generally unstable market, some new trends developed after 1972 and some old ones continued. Will these trends continue long enough to be useful for making a scenario for the future? The forecaster should not assume that the development of energy consumption in the USA, Western Europe and Japan will continue to be of overwhelming importance. Developments in South East Asia and Eastern Europe should be watched very carefully. There are reasons to believe that at a certain stage in economic development, transportation demand shoots up much faster than economic growth, leading to a rapid demand growth for distillate oil. Of importance is also how will the rapidly developing countries generate their increasing demand for electricity and how will they fuel their industry? There can be little doubt that in the rich countries environmental concern will be a major influence in the energy market. But in developing countries environmental concerns take second place to economic growth. Though political influences are impossible to predict, they will continue to upset forecasts based on trends.

Transmission control unit drive based on the AUTOSAR standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xiucai; Qin, Zhen

2018-03-01

It is a trend of automotive electronics industry in the future that automotive electronics embedded system development based on the AUTOSAR standard. AUTOSAR automotive architecture standard has proposed the transmission control unit (TCU) development architecture and designed its interfaces and configurations in detail. This essay has discussed that how to drive the TCU based on AUTOSAR standard architecture. The results show that driving the TCU with the AUTOSAR system improves reliability and shortens development cycles.

Performance Indicators of California Higher Education, 1997. The Fourth Annual Report to California's Governor, Legislature, and Citizens in Response to Assembly Bill 1808 (Chapter 741, Statutes of 1991).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

California State Postsecondary Education Commission, Sacramento.

This fourth annual report presents background information on the development of performance indicators for California higher education, describes the scope of the current set of indicators, identifies highlights of recent trends, delineates some recent developments and future plans, and includes data on the full set of 75 performance indicators.…

Breast-Feeding in the Developing World: Current Patterns and Implications for Future Trends. Reports on the World Fertility Survey 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kent, Mary Mederios

This report uses World Fertility Survey data obtained between 1974 and 1978 to investigate the initiation and duration of breast-feeding in 19 developing countries, ten of which are in Asia, eight in Latin America and the Caribbean, and one in sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya). Respondents were asked whether they had fed either their most recently born…

Current Situation and Reforms Making Way for Future Positive Developments in the National Education System of Bulgaria: An Overview

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Genova, Teodora

2015-01-01

This paper on the education system of Bulgaria is aimed at presenting its structure, current situation, problems and challenges that it faces, and on-going reforms leading to some positive trends in the development of the national education sector. At the moment of writing this paper in the year 2015, we will mark the 1160th anniversary of the…

The standards process: Technical committee X3B5 digital magnetic tape

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheatham, Sam

1993-01-01

The definition of X3B5, where it fits in the national and international standards development process, and how it interfaces and influences the world community of standards developers are provided. Details concerning the focus of the committee, how it operates, and what the group sees as the future trends in the area of interchange standards utilizing the multifaceted, ubiquitous magnetic tape are presented.

The Future of the Pharmaceutical Sciences and Graduate Education: Recommendations from the AACP Graduate Education Special Interest Group

PubMed Central

Gobburu, Jogarao; O’Barr, Stephen; Shah, Kumar; Huber, Jason; Weiner, Daniel

2013-01-01

Despite pharma's recent sea change in approach to drug discovery and development, U.S. pharmaceutical sciences graduate programs are currently maintaining traditional methods for master's and doctoral student education. The literature on graduate education in the biomedical sciences has long been advocating educating students to hone soft skills like communication and teamwork, in addition to maintaining excellent basic skills in research. However, recommendations to date have not taken into account the future trends in the pharmaceutical industry. The AACP Graduate Education Special Interest Group has completed a literature survey of the trends in the pharmaceutical industry and graduate education in order to determine whether our graduate programs are strategically positioned to prepare our graduates for successful careers in the next few decades. We recommend that our pharmaceutical sciences graduate programs take a proactive leadership role in meeting the needs of our future graduates and employers. Our graduate programs should bring to education the innovation and collaboration that our industry also requires to be successful and relevant in this century. PMID:23716757

Lake Baikal isotope records of Holocene Central Asian precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, George E. A.; Mackay, Anson W.; Vologina, Elena; Jones, Matthew D.; Panizzo, Virginia N.; Leng, Melanie J.; Sloane, Hilary J.; Snelling, Andrea M.; Sturm, Michael

2018-06-01

Climate models currently provide conflicting predictions of future climate change across Central Asia. With concern over the potential for a change in water availability to impact communities and ecosystems across the region, an understanding of historical trends in precipitation is required to aid model development and assess the vulnerability of the region to future changes in the hydroclimate. Here we present a record from Lake Baikal, located in the southern Siberian region of central Asia close to the Mongolian border, which demonstrates a relationship between the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica (δ18Odiatom) and precipitation to the region over the 20th and 21st Century. From this, we suggest that annual rates of precipitation in recent times are at their lowest for the past 10,000 years and identify significant long-term variations in precipitation throughout the early to late Holocene interval. Based on comparisons to other regional records, these trends are suggested to reflect conditions across the wider Central Asian region around Lake Baikal and highlight the potential for further changes in precipitation with future climate change.

The future of the pharmaceutical sciences and graduate education: recommendations from the AACP Graduate Education Special Interest Group.

PubMed

Wu-Pong, Susanna; Gobburu, Jogarao; O'Barr, Stephen; Shah, Kumar; Huber, Jason; Weiner, Daniel

2013-05-13

Despite pharma's recent sea change in approach to drug discovery and development, U.S. pharmaceutical sciences graduate programs are currently maintaining traditional methods for master's and doctoral student education. The literature on graduate education in the biomedical sciences has long been advocating educating students to hone soft skills like communication and teamwork, in addition to maintaining excellent basic skills in research. However, recommendations to date have not taken into account the future trends in the pharmaceutical industry. The AACP Graduate Education Special Interest Group has completed a literature survey of the trends in the pharmaceutical industry and graduate education in order to determine whether our graduate programs are strategically positioned to prepare our graduates for successful careers in the next few decades. We recommend that our pharmaceutical sciences graduate programs take a proactive leadership role in meeting the needs of our future graduates and employers. Our graduate programs should bring to education the innovation and collaboration that our industry also requires to be successful and relevant in this century.

Current trends in molecular diagnostics of chronic myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Vinhas, Raquel; Cordeiro, Milton; Pedrosa, Pedro; Fernandes, Alexandra R; Baptista, Pedro V

2017-08-01

Nearly 1.5 million people worldwide suffer from chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), characterized by the genetic translocation t(9;22)(q34;q11.2), involving the fusion of the Abelson oncogene (ABL1) with the breakpoint cluster region (BCR) gene. Early onset diagnosis coupled to current therapeutics allow for a treatment success rate of 90, which has focused research on the development of novel diagnostics approaches. In this review, we present a critical perspective on current strategies for CML diagnostics, comparing to gold standard methodologies and with an eye on the future trends on nanotheranostics.

IEA Wind Task 26. Wind Technology, Cost, and Performance Trends in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, the European Union, and the United States: 2007–2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vitina, Aisma; Lüers, Silke; Wallasch, Anna-Kathrin

The International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement for cooperation in Research, Development, and Deployment of Wind Energy Systems (IEA Wind) Task 26—The Cost of Wind Energy represents an international collaboration dedicated to exploring past, present and future cost of wind energy. This report provides an overview of recent trends in wind plant technology, cost, and performance in those countries that are currently represented by participating organizations in IEA Wind Task 26: Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, and the United States as well as the European Union.

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2010-01-01

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkerson, Andrea M.; Donohue, Amy; Davis, Robert G.

The article discusses trends in classroom design and then transitions to a discussion of the future of the classroom and how the lighting industry needs to be preparing to meet the needs of the future classroom. The OSU Classroom building as an example throughout, first discussing how trends in classroom design were incorporated into the Classroom Building and then discussing how future lighting systems could enhance the Classroom Building, which is a clear departure from the actual lighting design and current technology.

Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030.

PubMed

Mathers, Colin D; Loncar, Dejan

2006-11-01

Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios-baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic-based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

PubMed Central

Mathers, Colin D; Loncar, Dejan

2006-01-01

Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Conclusions These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries. PMID:17132052

Some Future Software Engineering Opportunities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehm, Barry

This paper provides an update and extension of a 2006 paper, “Some Future Trends and Implications for Systems and Software Engineering Processes,” Systems Engineering, Spring 2006. Some of its challenges and opportunities are similar, such as the need to simultaneously achieve high levels of both agility and assurance. Others have emerged as increasingly important, such as the challenges of dealing with ultralarge volumes of data, with multicore chips, and with software as a service. The paper is organized around eight relatively surprise-free trends and two “wild cards” whose trends and implications are harder to foresee. The eight surprise-free trends are:

Carbohydrate intake in the etiology of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis.

PubMed

Chan, Simon S M; Luben, Robert; van Schaik, Fiona; Oldenburg, Bas; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Hallmans, Göran; Karling, Pontus; Lindgren, Stefan; Grip, Olof; Key, Timothy; Crowe, Francesca L; Bergmann, Manuela M; Overvad, Kim; Palli, Domenico; Masala, Giovanna; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Racine, Antoine; Carbonnel, Franck; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Olsen, Anja; Tjonneland, Anne; Kaaks, Rudolf; Tumino, Rosario; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Hart, Andrew R

2014-11-01

Diet may have a role in the etiology of inflammatory bowel disease. In previous studies, the associations between increased intakes of carbohydrates, sugar, starch, and inflammatory bowel disease are inconsistent. However, few prospective studies have investigated the associations between these macronutrients and incident Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC). A total of 401,326 men and women were recruited between 1991 and 1998. At recruitment, dietary intakes of carbohydrate, sugar, and starch were measured using validated food frequency questionnaires. The cohort was monitored identifying participants who developed incident CD or UC. Cases were matched with 4 controls, and odds ratios were calculated for quintiles of total carbohydrate, sugar, and starch intakes adjusted for total energy intake, body mass index, and smoking. One hundred ten participants developed CD, and 244 participants developed UC during follow-up. The adjusted odds ratio for the highest versus the lowest quintiles of total carbohydrate intake for CD was 0.87, 95% CI = 0.24 to 3.12 and for UC 1.46, 95% CI = 0.62 to 3.46, with no significant trends across quintiles for either (CD, P trend = 0.70; UC, P trend = 0.41). Similarly, no associations were observed with intakes of total sugar (CD, P trend = 0.50; UC, P trend = 0.71) or starch (CD, P trend = 0.69; UC, P trend = 0.17). The lack of associations with these nutrients is in agreement with many case-control studies that have not identified associations with CD or UC. As there is biological plausibility for how specific carbohydrates could have an etiological role in inflammatory bowel disease, future epidemiological work should assess individual carbohydrates, although there does not seem to be a macronutrient effect.

Development of A Dust Climate Indicator for the US National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, D.; Wang, J. X. L.; Gill, T. E.; Van Pelt, S.; Kim, D.

2016-12-01

Dust activity is a relatively simple but practical indicator to document the response of dryland ecosystems to climate change, making it an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). We present here a multi-agency collaboration that aims at developing a suite of dust climate indicators to document and monitor the long-term variability and trend of dust storm activity in the western United States. Recent dust observations have revealed rapid intensification of dust storm activity in the western United States. This trend is also closely correlated with a rapid increase in dust deposition in rainwater and "valley fever" hospitalization in southwestern states. It remains unclear, however, if such a trend, when enhanced by predicted warming and rainfall oscillation in the Southwest, will result in irreversible environmental development such as desertification or even another "Dust Bowl". Based on continuous ground aerosol monitoring, we have reconstructed a long-term dust storm climatology in the western United States. We report here direct evidence of rapid intensification of dust storm activity over US deserts in the past decades (1990 to 2013), in contrast to the decreasing trends in Asia and Africa. The US trend is spatially and temporally correlated with incidences of valley fever, an infectious disease caused by soil-dwelling fungus that has increased eight-fold in the past decade. We further investigate the linkage between dust variations and possible climate drivers and find that the regional dust trends are likely driven by large-scale variations of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, with the strongest correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Future study will explore the link between the temporal and spatial trends of increase in dustiness and vegetation change in southwestern semi-arid and arid ecosystems.

Migration in Deltas: An Integrated Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Robert J.; Hutton, Craig W.; Lazar, Attila; Adger, W. Neil; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Vincent, Katharine; Rahman, Munsur; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Sugata, Hazra; Ghosh, Tuhin; Codjoe, Sam; Appeaning-Addo, Kwasi

2017-04-01

Deltas and low-lying coastal regions have long been perceived as vulnerable to global sea-level rise, with the potential for mass displacement of exposed populations. The assumption of mass displacement of populations in deltas requires a comprehensive reassessment in the light of present and future migration in deltas, including the potential role of adaptation to influence these decisions. At present, deltas are subject to multiple drivers of environmental change and often have high population densities as they are accessible and productive ecosystems. Climate change, catchment management, subsidence and land cover change drive environmental change across all deltas. Populations in deltas are also highly mobile, with significant urbanization trends and the growth of large cities and mega-cities within or adjacent to deltas across Asia and Africa. Such migration is driven primarily by economic opportunity, yet environmental change in general, and climate change in particular, are likely to play an increasing direct and indirect role in future migration trends. The policy challenges centre on the role of migration within regional adaptation strategies to climate change; the protection of vulnerable populations; and the future of urban settlements within deltas. This paper reviews current knowledge on migration and adaptation to environmental change to discern specific issues pertinent to delta regions. It develops a new integrated methodology to assess present and future migration in deltas using the Volta delta in Ghana, Mahanadi delta in India and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta across India and Bangladesh. The integrated method focuses on: biophysical changes and spatial distribution of vulnerability; demographic changes and migration decision-making using multiple methods and data; macro-economic trends and scenarios in the deltas; and the policies and governance structures that constrain and enable adaptation. The analysis is facilitated by a range of consistent scenarios from global to delta scales, developed in consultation with major stakeholders. Initial results suggest that migration decision-making strongly interacts with diverse measures for adaptation of land, water and agricultural management. A key normative challenge is to identify the parameters of successful migration and adaptation across delta regions, to inform policy analysis and formulation. Key words: Deltas, sea-level rise, migration and adaptation Acknowledgement: DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project is part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Future Trends in Education Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newitt, Jane, Ed.

These essays deal explicitly with the future of the public schools and implicitly with the problem of making responsible predictions. Following an introduction by Herman Kahn, the first two essays deal with the social and social policy context of the schools. B. Bruce-Briggs contrasts alternative long-term and current cultural trends. Jane Newitt,…

A circumpolar monitoring framework for polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vongraven, Dag; Aars, Jon; Amstrup, Steven C.; Atkinson, Stephen N.; Belikov, Stanislav; Born, Erik W.; DeBruyn, T.D.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Durner, George M.; Gill, Michael J.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Omelak, Jack; Ovsyanikov, Nikita; Peacock, Elizabeth; Richardson, E.E.; Sahanatien, Vicki; Stirling, Ian; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) occupy remote regions that are characterized by harsh weather and limited access. Polar bear populations can only persist where temporal and spatial availability of sea ice provides adequate access to their marine mammal prey. Observed declines in sea ice availability will continue as long as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. At the same time, human intrusion and pollution levels in the Arctic are expected to increase. A circumpolar understanding of the cumulative impacts of current and future stressors is lacking, long-term trends are known from only a few subpopulations, and there is no globally coordinated effort to monitor effects of stressors. Here, we describe a framework for an integrated circumpolar monitoring plan to detect ongoing patterns, predict future trends, and identify the most vulnerable polar bear subpopulations. We recommend strategies for monitoring subpopulation abundance and trends, reproduction, survival, ecosystem change, human-caused mortality, human–bear conflict, prey availability, health, stature, distribution, behavioral change, and the effects that monitoring itself may have on polar bears. We assign monitoring intensity for each subpopulation through adaptive assessment of the quality of existing baseline data and research accessibility. A global perspective is achieved by recommending high intensity monitoring for at least one subpopulation in each of four major polar bear ecoregions. Collection of data on harvest, where it occurs, and remote sensing of habitat, should occur with the same intensity for all subpopulations. We outline how local traditional knowledge may most effectively be combined with the best scientific methods to provide comparable and complementary lines of evidence. We also outline how previously collected intensive monitoring data may be sub-sampled to guide future sampling frequencies and develop indirect estimates or indices of subpopulation status. Adoption of this framework will inform management and policy responses to changing worldwide polar bear status and trends.

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping.

PubMed

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-07-15

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Dietary inequalities: what is the evidence for the effect of the neighbourhood food environment?

PubMed Central

Black, Christina; Moon, Graham; Baird, Janis

2016-01-01

This review summarises the evidence for inequalities in community and consumer nutrition environments from ten previous review articles, and also assesses the evidence for the effect of the community and consumer nutrition environments on dietary intake. There is evidence for inequalities in food access in the US but trends are less apparent in other developed countries. There is a trend for greater access and availability to healthy and less healthy foods relating to better and poorer dietary outcomes respectively. Trends for price show that higher prices of healthy foods are associated with better dietary outcomes. More nuanced measures of the food environment, including multi-dimensional and individualised approaches, would enhance the state of the evidence and help inform future interventions. PMID:24200470

Cross-National Trends in Religious Service Attendance

PubMed Central

Brenner, Philip S.

2016-01-01

The nature of religious change and the future of religion have been central questions of social science since its inception. But empirical research on this question has been quite American-centric, encouraged by the conventional wisdom that the United States is an outlier of religiosity in the developed world, and, more pragmatically, by the availability of survey data. The dramatic growth in the number and reach of cross-national surveys over the past two decades has offered a corrective. These data have allowed research on religious trends in the United States, Canada, and Europe, putting American trends into comparative relief. This research synthesis reviews the past quarter century of cross-national comparative survey research on religious behavior, focusing on religious service attendance as a commonly measured behavior that is arguably more equivalent across societies and cultures than other measures of religiosity. The lack of evidence for religious revival is highlighted, noting instead declining rates of attendance in the United States and Canada, and either declining rates or low “bottomed-out” stability in Western Europe, most of Eastern Europe, and Australia and New Zealand. Finally, countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia are discussed to the extent that research allows, before a call for future research—in these places in particular—is made in order to correct for the Western and Christian focus of much of the research on cross-national religious trends. PMID:27274579

Forest resources of nations in relation to human well-being.

PubMed

Kauppi, Pekka E; Sandström, Vilma; Lipponen, Antti

2018-01-01

A universal turnaround has been detected in many countries of the World from shrinking to expanding forests. The forest area of western Europe expanded already in the 19th century. Such early trends of forest resources cannot be associated with the rapid rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide nor with the anthropogenic climate change, which have taken place since the mid 20th century. Modern, most recent spatial patterns of forest expansions and contractions do not correlate with the geography of climate trends nor with dry versus moist areas. Instead, the forest resources trends of nations correlate positively with UNDP Human Development Index. This indicates that forest resources of nations have improved along with progress in human well-being. Highly developed countries apply modern agricultural methods on good farmlands and abandon marginal lands, which become available for forest expansion. Developed countries invest in sustainable programs of forest management and nature protection. Our findings are significant for predicting the future of the terrestrial carbon sink. They suggest that the large sink of carbon recently observed in forests of the World will persist, if the well-being of people continues to improve. However, despite the positive trends in domestic forests, developed nations increasingly outsource their biomass needs abroad through international trade, and all nations rely on unsustainable energy use and wasteful patterns of material consumption.

Tracking Trends in Fractional Forest Cover Change using Long Term Data from AVHRR and MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, D. H.; DiMiceli, C.; Sohlberg, R. A.; Hansen, M.; Carroll, M.; Kelly, M.; Townshend, J. R.

2014-12-01

Tree cover affects terrestrial energy and water exchanges, photosynthesis and transpiration, net primary production, and carbon and nutrient fluxes. Accurate and long-term continuous observation of tree cover change is critical for the study of the gradual ecosystem change. Tree cover is most commonly inferred from categorical maps which may inadequately represent within-class heterogeneity for many analyses. Alternatively, Vegetation Continuous Fields data measures fractions or proportions of pixel area. Recent development in remote sensing data processing and cross sensor calibration techniques enabled the continuous, long-term observations such as Land Long-Term Data Records. Such data products and their surface reflectance data have enhanced the possibilities for long term Vegetation Continuous Fields data, thus enabling the estimation of long term trend of fractional forest cover change. In this presentation, we will summarize the progress in algorithm development including automation of training selection for deciduous and evergreen forest, the preliminary results, and its future applications to relate trends in fractional forest cover change and environmental change.

VisualUrText: A Text Analytics Tool for Unstructured Textual Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainol, Zuraini; Jaymes, Mohd T. H.; Nohuddin, Puteri N. E.

2018-05-01

The growing amount of unstructured text over Internet is tremendous. Text repositories come from Web 2.0, business intelligence and social networking applications. It is also believed that 80-90% of future growth data is available in the form of unstructured text databases that may potentially contain interesting patterns and trends. Text Mining is well known technique for discovering interesting patterns and trends which are non-trivial knowledge from massive unstructured text data. Text Mining covers multidisciplinary fields involving information retrieval (IR), text analysis, natural language processing (NLP), data mining, machine learning statistics and computational linguistics. This paper discusses the development of text analytics tool that is proficient in extracting, processing, analyzing the unstructured text data and visualizing cleaned text data into multiple forms such as Document Term Matrix (DTM), Frequency Graph, Network Analysis Graph, Word Cloud and Dendogram. This tool, VisualUrText, is developed to assist students and researchers for extracting interesting patterns and trends in document analyses.

Stargazing: Future Trends in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shields, Jeff

2001-01-01

Describes the trends in higher education predicted and discussed at a staff retreat of the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO). Trends include an evolving role for business officers, increasing enrollment, competition, and e-learning. (EV)

Civil helicopter design and operational requirement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waters, K. T.

1978-01-01

Design and operational requirements and other factors that have a restraining influence on expansion of the helicopter market are discussed. The needs of operators, users, pilots and the community at large are examined. The impact of future technology developments and other trends such as use, energy shortages, and civil and military helicopter requirements and development is assessed. Areas where research and development are needed to provide opportunities for lowering life cycle costs and removing barriers to further expansion of the industry are analyzed.

Software development for airborne radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundstrom, Ingvar G.

Some aspects for development of software in a modern multimode airborne nose radar are described. First, an overview of where software is used in the radar units is presented. The development phases-system design, functional design, detailed design, function verification, and system verification-are then used as the starting point for the discussion. Methods, tools, and the most important documents are described. The importance of video flight recording in the early stages and use of a digital signal generators for performance verification is emphasized. Some future trends are discussed.

Chance, choice, and the future of reproduction.

PubMed

Miller, W B

1983-11-01

The evolution of reproduction has been characterized by the development of complex biological and behavioral mechanisms that serve to regulate chance events. Human reproduction has been characterized by the increasing importance of individual choice. Some contemporary manifestations of this broad trend are the high incidence of contraceptive and "proceptive" behavior among couples in Western, industrialized nations. The former behavior willingly attempts to prevent conception while the latter actively attempts to induce conception (such as concentrating intercourse around the time of ovulation). Both patterns of behavior indicate that a choice is being made. A 3-year study of 1000 women revealed proceptive behavior as the most important factor predicting occurance of conception among married couples in the United States. The general strategeis people follow while making childbearing decisions: termination, sequencing, and pre-planning form a continuum following the historical trend toward greater reproductive control. In the terminating strategy, a couple makes no decision about child bearing until the number of children they have become enough or too much. In the sequencing strategy, decisions to have children are made 1 child at a time until a satisfactory limit is reached. In the pre-planning strategy, a plan is worked out ahead of time and is subsequently carried out. As new reproductive technology is introduced and as progressive change is made in society's reproductive related values and beliefs, choice will continue to dominate chance as the highly likely trend for the future of reproduction. Surrogate maternity is just 1 example of this trend. However, these new options, which culminate in the theory and practice of "progensis," (still in its infancy), as well as offering a rich opportunity, can also incur psychological burdens on a couple. Thus, as with any kind of freedom, these developments will require care, caution and responsibility.

Trend of the research on construction and demolition waste management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan Hongping, E-mail: hpyuan2005@gmail.com; Shen Liyin, E-mail: bsshen@polyu.edu.hk

2011-04-15

Research interests in addressing construction and demolition (C and D) waste management issues have resulted in a large amount of publications during the last decade. This study demonstrates that there is no systematic examination on the research development in literature in the discipline of C and D waste management. This study presents the latest research trend in the discipline through analyzing the publications from 2000 to 2009 in eight major international journals. The analysis is conducted on the number of papers published annually, main authors' contributions, research methods and data analysis methods adopted, and research topics covered. The results exhibitmore » an increasing research interest in C and D waste management in recent years. Researchers from developed economies have contributed significantly to the development of the research in the discipline. Some developing countries such as Malaysia and China have also been making good efforts in promoting C and D waste management research. The findings from this study also indicate that survey and case study are major methods for data collection, and the data are mostly processed through descriptive analysis. It is anticipated that more future studies on C and D waste management will be led by researchers from developing economies, where construction works will remain their major economic activities. On the other hand, more sophisticated modeling and simulating techniques have been used effectively in a number of studies on C and D waste management research, and this is considered a major methodology for future research in the discipline. C and D waste management will continue to be a hot research topic in the future, in particularly, the importance of human factors in C and D waste management has emerged as a new challenging topic.« less

Trend of the research on construction and demolition waste management.

PubMed

Yuan, Hongping; Shen, Liyin

2011-04-01

Research interests in addressing construction and demolition (C&D) waste management issues have resulted in a large amount of publications during the last decade. This study demonstrates that there is no systematic examination on the research development in literature in the discipline of C&D waste management. This study presents the latest research trend in the discipline through analyzing the publications from 2000 to 2009 in eight major international journals. The analysis is conducted on the number of papers published annually, main authors' contributions, research methods and data analysis methods adopted, and research topics covered. The results exhibit an increasing research interest in C&D waste management in recent years. Researchers from developed economies have contributed significantly to the development of the research in the discipline. Some developing countries such as Malaysia and China have also been making good efforts in promoting C&D waste management research. The findings from this study also indicate that survey and case study are major methods for data collection, and the data are mostly processed through descriptive analysis. It is anticipated that more future studies on C&D waste management will be led by researchers from developing economies, where construction works will remain their major economic activities. On the other hand, more sophisticated modeling and simulating techniques have been used effectively in a number of studies on C&D waste management research, and this is considered a major methodology for future research in the discipline. C&D waste management will continue to be a hot research topic in the future, in particularly, the importance of human factors in C&D waste management has emerged as a new challenging topic. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FBI fingerprint identification automation study: AIDS 3 evaluation report. Volume 6: Environmental analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulhall, B. D. L.

1980-01-01

The results of the analysis of the external environment of the FBI Fingerprint Identification Division are presented. Possible trends in the future environment of the Division that may have an effect on the work load were projected to determine if future work load will lie within the capability range of the proposed new system, AIDS 3. Two working models of the environment were developed, the internal and external model, and from these scenarios the projection of possible future work load volume and mixture was developed. Possible drivers of work load change were identified and assessed for upper and lower bounds of effects. Data used for the study were derived from historical information, analysis of the current situation and from interviews with various agencies who are users of or stakeholders in the present system.

Measurement of historical cliff-top changes and estimation of future trends using GIS data between Bridlington and Hornsea - Holderness Coast (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castedo, Ricardo; de la Vega-Panizo, Rogelio; Fernández-Hernández, Marta; Paredes, Carlos

2015-02-01

A key requirement for effective coastal zone management is good knowledge of historical rates of change and the ability to predict future shoreline evolution, especially for rapidly eroding areas. Historical shoreline recession analysis was used for the prediction of future cliff shoreline positions along a section of 9 km between Bridlington and Hornsea, on the northern area of the Holderness Coast, UK. The analysis was based on historical maps and aerial photographs dating from 1852 to 2011 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) 4.3, extension of ESRI's ArcInfo 10.×. The prediction of future shorelines was performed for the next 40 years using a variety of techniques, ranging from extrapolation from historical data, geometric approaches like the historical trend analysis, to a process-response numerical model that incorporates physically-based equations and geotechnical stability analysis. With climate change and sea-level rise implying that historical rates of change may not be a reliable guide for the future, enhanced visualization of the evolving coastline has the potential to improve awareness of these changing conditions. Following the IPCC, 2013 report, two sea-level rise rates, 2 mm/yr and 6 mm/yr, have been used to estimate future shoreline conditions. This study illustrated that good predictive models, once their limitations are estimated or at least defined, are available for use by managers, planners, engineers, scientists and the public to make better decisions regarding coastal management, development, and erosion-control strategies.

Trend Damping: Under-Adjustment, Experimental Artifact, or Adaptation to Features of the Natural Environment?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harvey, Nigel; Reimers, Stian

2013-01-01

People's forecasts from time series underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones. This trend damping may occur because (a) people anchor on the last data point and make insufficient adjustment to take the trend into account, (b) they adjust toward the average of the trends they have encountered within the…

Aquaculture: global status and trends

PubMed Central

Bostock, John; McAndrew, Brendan; Richards, Randolph; Jauncey, Kim; Telfer, Trevor; Lorenzen, Kai; Little, David; Ross, Lindsay; Handisyde, Neil; Gatward, Iain; Corner, Richard

2010-01-01

Aquaculture contributed 43 per cent of aquatic animal food for human consumption in 2007 (e.g. fish, crustaceans and molluscs, but excluding mammals, reptiles and aquatic plants) and is expected to grow further to meet the future demand. It is very diverse and, contrary to many perceptions, dominated by shellfish and herbivorous and omnivorous pond fish either entirely or partly utilizing natural productivity. The rapid growth in the production of carnivorous species such as salmon, shrimp and catfish has been driven by globalizing trade and favourable economics of larger scale intensive farming. Most aquaculture systems rely on low/uncosted environmental goods and services, so a critical issue for the future is whether these are brought into company accounts and the consequent effects this would have on production economics. Failing that, increased competition for natural resources will force governments to allocate strategically or leave the market to determine their use depending on activities that can extract the highest value. Further uncertainties include the impact of climate change, future fisheries supplies (for competition and feed supply), practical limits in terms of scale and in the economics of integration and the development and acceptability of new bio-engineering technologies. In the medium term, increased output is likely to require expansion in new environments, further intensification and efficiency gains for more sustainable and cost-effective production. The trend towards enhanced intensive systems with key monocultures remains strong and, at least for the foreseeable future, will be a significant contributor to future supplies. Dependence on external feeds (including fish), water and energy are key issues. Some new species will enter production and policies that support the reduction of resource footprints and improve integration could lead to new developments as well as reversing decline in some more traditional systems. PMID:20713392

Space commerce in a global economy - Comparison of international approaches to commercial space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, Barbara A.; Kleber, Peter

1992-01-01

A historical perspective, current status, and comparison of national government/commercial space industry relationships in the United States and Europe are presented. It is noted that space technology has been developed and used primarily to meet the needs of civil and military government initiatives. Two future trends of space technology development include new space enterprises, and the national drive to achieve a more competitive global economic position.

A Master Plan for the Development of Vocational-Technical Education In New Mexico.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterling Inst., Washington, DC.

This master plan for vocational education in New Mexico is the result of a study conducted by professional education consultants. The following areas were examined during the study: (1) New Mexico's present manpower problems, (2) market trends of future industrial potential, (3) state resources capable of attracting new industry, (4) adequacy of…

One Size Doesn't Fit All: Teacher Education in Developing Pacific Island Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serow, Penelope; Taylor, Neil; Burnett, Greg; Sullivan, Terence; Smardon, Dianne; Tarrant, Jodana; Angell, Emily

2014-01-01

In global terms, the world is facing chronic teacher shortages "that will persist beyond 2015 for future decades to come if current trends continue" (UNESCO, 2013). UNESCO reports that the East Asia and Pacific Region need to fill an additional 57,000 teaching positions to achieve universal primary education standards. The closing of the…

The Education of the Film-Maker: An International View.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Paris (France).

This book presents a world view of trends, needs, and potentials concerning the education of film and television directors, who are perceived as image makers who play a central role in the present and future sociocultural development of all societies. Work is based on the papers and discussions of a 1972 meeting, organized by UNESCO, on the…

Organizing the Baby Boomer Construct: An Exploration of Marketing, Social Systems, and Culture

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lipschultz, Jeremy H.; Hilt, Michael L.; Reilly, Hugh J.

2007-01-01

Baby boomer trends are applied in the development of a conceptual framework that offers a social systems and cultural model for future studies. While there has been considerable recent attention paid to baby boomers, the studies lack a coherent theoretical base that would allow for more advanced and continuing research. Aging baby boomers heading…

The Many Histories of Community Psychology: Analyses of Current Trends and Future Prospects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fowler, Patrick J.; Toro, Paul A.

2008-01-01

Forty years since the seminal Swampscott Conference, the principles of community psychology transcend multiple areas of action and research, as well as international boundaries. The extensive development of community psychology offers an opportunity to examine from where the field has come and where it is going. Yet, a systematic approach to…

Education, Cognitive Development, and Poverty: Implications for School Finance Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

BenDavid-Hadar, Iris

2014-01-01

Child poverty is a growing problem that adversely affects both future society and the poor children themselves. This paper's purpose is to investigate the intergenerational links between education and poverty. Israel serves as an interesting case study because it has exhibited an incremental trend in child poverty between 1980 and 2010 (from 5% to…

Horizon scanning for environmental foresight: a review of issues and approaches

Treesearch

David N. Bengston

2013-01-01

Natural resource management organizations carry out a range of activities to examine possible future conditions and trends as part of their planning process, but the distinct approach of formal horizon scanning is often a missing component of strategic thinking and strategy development in these organizations. Horizon scanning is a process for finding and interpreting...

Future Physicians' Professional Communication Skills Training at US Universities: Structure and Content

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manyuk, Lubov

2016-01-01

Professional training of physicians able to apply their skills in order to reflect the patients' needs related to care, prevention and treatment of the diseases is one of the most common current trends in higher medical education. Due to the development of patient-centered relationships of physicians the attention of medical educators and…

Defined contribution: a part of our future.

PubMed Central

Baugh, Reginald F.

2003-01-01

Rising employer health care costs and consumer backlash against managed care are trends fostering the development of defined contribution plans. Defined contribution plans limit employer responsibility to a fixed financial contribution rather than a benefit program and dramatically increase consumer responsibility for health care decision making. Possible outcomes of widespread adoption of defined contribution plans are presented. PMID:12934869

Steel Band Repertoire: The Case for Original Music

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tanner, Chris

2010-01-01

In the past few decades, the steel band art form has experienced consistent growth and development in several key respects. For example, in the United States, the sheer number of steel band programs has steadily increased, and it appears that this trend will continue in the future. Additionally, pan builders and tuners have made great strides in…

Young Children and E-Reading: Research to Date and Questions for the Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Elizabeth B.; Warschauer, Mark

2014-01-01

The practice of reading is rapidly moving from print to screen. Young children are not immune from this trend; indeed, many children's principal literacy experiences occur using iPads and other handheld digital devices. This transition raises important questions about how the emergence and development of literacy might change in these new…

Concept of a Communication Career Development Program for the Individual College Student.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindsey, Helon M.

There is an increasing need for better counseling programs at colleges and universities in order to meet their educational objectives in preparing students for future careers. This need can be met through greater planning, placing more emphasis on the career program early in the academic program, and research on current employment trends which…

Overview of mycotoxin methods, present status and future needs.

PubMed

Gilbert, J

1999-01-01

This article reviews current requirements for the analysis for mycotoxins in foods and identifies legislative as well as other factors that are driving development and validation of new methods. New regulatory limits for mycotoxins and analytical quality assurance requirements for laboratories to only use validated methods are seen as major factors driving developments. Three major classes of methods are identified which serve different purposes and can be categorized as screening, official and research. In each case the present status and future needs are assessed. In addition to an overview of trends in analytical methods, some other areas of analytical quality assurance such as participation in proficiency testing and reference materials are identified.

Paediatric health economic evaluations: a world view.

PubMed

Ungar, Wendy J

2007-01-01

As economic evaluation methods evolve, their applicability to special populations, such as children, has received increased scrutiny. The objective was to review paediatric health economic evaluations published over the last quarter century, comment on trends, discuss gaps between developed and developing nations, and point to future directions for research. Data compiled for the Paediatric Economic Database Evaluation (PEDE) project to 2003 were used to describe temporal and geographic trends and evaluate the frequency of intervention categories and conditions studied. The volume of paediatric health economic evaluations rose rapidly since 1980. Studies of infective/parasitic diseases, congenital anomalies and complications of pregnancy accounted for the majority. Prevention rather than treatment was emphasized. Most evaluations performed since 1998 (78%) were cost-effectiveness analyses. Cost-utility analyses were rare. The US produced half of all publications, with the U.K. contributing 12%. Economic evaluations from developing countries were uncommon, despite an urgent need for evidence-based decision-making in these regions. The interventions studied reflected local health priorities; HIV and malaria prevention were more commonly studied in developing nations, whereas treatments for asthma and birth malformations were more often evaluated in developed nations. Despite global initiatives to combat disease, developing nations rely on foreign research to inform implementation of local health programs. There is a need for better methods for data transfer and extrapolation. Future research must focus on paediatric models of costs and consequences and the development of tools to measure long-term effects.

A Delphi Investigation into Future Trends in E-Learning in Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aharony, Noa; Bronstein, Jenny

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the views and opinions of e-learning experts regarding future trends in the e-learning arena. The Delphi technique was chosen as a method of study. This technique is an efficient and effective group communication process designed to systematically elicit judgments from experts in their selected area of…

Future Directions of Management Science and Operations Management in Business School Curricula

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller, Jack A.; Denton, James W.

2006-01-01

The fields of Management Science (MS) and Operations Management (OM) have co-existed in business school curricula for over a half century. This paper examines five trends that point toward a bright future for Operations Management in the business curriculum. These trends include an increasing emphasis on global competition, the growth of the…

A Look at the Future from the College Union and Activities Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benedict, Joseph H., Jr.

1984-01-01

Future societal trends and implications for the college union and student activities profession are considered. Ten major trends identified by John Naisbitt in his recent book "Megatrends" are used as focal points. Attention is directed to shifts from: an industrial society to an information society; forced technology to high tech/high touch; a…

Digital Skills Acquisition: Future Trends among Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilliam, Brian K.

2011-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify future trends and barriers that will either facilitate or impede the narrowing of the digital skills divide among older adults during the next 10 years. Methodology: To address the research questions, this study used a modified version of the Delphi process using a panel of experts who…

Anticipating cascading change in forests: Seeking a deeper understanding of the future

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Mike Dockry; Stephen R. Shifley

2017-01-01

This study used a participatory group brainstorming process called the Futures Wheel to identify and evaluate the direct and higher-order implications of this trend: Central Hardwood forests lack age-class diversity and will uniformly grow old. Five 1st-order consequences of this trend were identified: continued significant decrease in early-successional forest,...

Echoes of the Past, Glimpses of the Future - Ongoing Trends in Assurance of EEE Parts for Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sampson, Michael J.

2017-01-01

This presentation will review some past NASA presentations that had identified challenges and future trends in the assurance of Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts for spaceflight applications. It will contrast the concerns expressed in those presentations with the challenges of today and identify trends that give insight into the future. Common themes include the use of commercial parts, limited technical and physical resources, the pace of technology change and the difficulties in handling and testing individual parts as they become smaller and more complex. Some options for dealing with these challenges will be suggested to accommodate increasing numbers of smallsats, cubesats, constellations and other disruptive concepts, as space becomes more and more commercialized.

Active optics as enabling technology for future large missions: current developments for astronomy and Earth observation at ESA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallibert, Pascal

2017-09-01

In recent years, a trend for higher resolution has increased the entrance apertures of future optical payloads for both Astronomy and Earth Observation most demanding applications, resulting in new opto-mechanical challenges for future systems based on either monolithic or segmented large primary mirrors. Whether easing feasibility and schedule impact of tight manufacturing and integration constraints or correcting mission-critical in-orbit and commissioning effects, Active Optics constitutes an enabling technology for future large optical space instruments at ESA and needs to reach the necessary maturity in time for future mission selection and implementation. We present here a complete updated overview of our current R and D activities in this field, ranging from deformable space-compatible components to full correction chains including wavefront sensing as well as control and correction algorithms. We share as well our perspectives on the way-forward to technological maturity and implementation within future missions.

Modelling uncertainties and possible future trends of precipitation and temperature for 10 sub-basins in Columbia River Basin (CRB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Rana, A.; Qin, Y.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Trends and changes in future climatic parameters, such as, precipitation and temperature have been a central part of climate change studies. In the present work, we have analyzed the seasonal and yearly trends and uncertainties of prediction in all the 10 sub-basins of Columbia River Basin (CRB) for future time period of 2010-2099. The work is carried out using 2 different sets of statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) projection datasets i.e. Bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) generated at Portland State University and The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) generated at University of Idaho. The analysis is done for with 10 GCM downscaled products each from CMIP5 daily dataset totaling to 40 different downscaled products for robust analysis. Summer, winter and yearly trend analysis is performed for all the 10 sub-basins using linear regression (significance tested by student t test) and Mann Kendall test (0.05 percent significance level), for precipitation (P), temperature maximum (Tmax) and temperature minimum (Tmin). Thereafter, all the parameters are modelled for uncertainty, across all models, in all the 10 sub-basins and across the CRB for future scenario periods. Results have indicated in varied degree of trends for all the sub-basins, mostly pointing towards a significant increase in all three climatic parameters, for all the seasons and yearly considerations. Uncertainty analysis have reveled very high change in all the parameters across models and sub-basins under consideration. Basin wide uncertainty analysis is performed to corroborate results from smaller, sub-basin scale. Similar trends and uncertainties are reported on the larger scale as well. Interestingly, both trends and uncertainties are higher during winter period than during summer, contributing to large part of the yearly change.

Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.

PubMed Central

Leufkens, H.; Haaijer-Ruskamp, F.; Bakker, A.; Dukes, G.

1994-01-01

Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future. PMID:7987110

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transporation systems. Volume 2: Identification of issues affecting intercity transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Papers on major issues and trends that affect the future of intercity transportation are presented. Specific areas covered include: political, social, technological, institutional, and economic mechanisms, the workings of which determine how future intercity transporation technologies will evolve and be put into service; the major issues of intercity transportation from the point of view of reform, including candidate transporation technologies; and technical analysis of trends affecting the evolution of intercity transportation technologies.

Envisioning Nano Release Dynamics in a Changing World: Using Dynamic Probabilistic Modeling to Assess Future Environmental Emissions of Engineered Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sun, Tian Yin; Mitrano, Denise M; Bornhöft, Nikolaus A; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Nowack, Bernd

2017-03-07

The need for an environmental risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) necessitates the knowledge about their environmental emissions. Material flow models (MFA) have been used to provide predicted environmental emissions but most current nano-MFA models consider neither the rapid development of ENM production nor the fact that a large proportion of ENM are entering an in-use stock and are released from products over time (i.e., have a lag phase). Here we use dynamic probabilistic material flow modeling to predict scenarios of the future flows of four ENM (nano-TiO 2 , nano-ZnO, nano-Ag and CNT) to environmental compartments and to quantify their amounts in (temporary) sinks such as the in-use stock and ("final") environmental sinks such as soil and sediment. In these scenarios, we estimate likely future amounts if the use and distribution of ENM in products continues along current trends (i.e., a business-as-usual approach) and predict the effect of hypothetical trends in the market development of nanomaterials, such as the emergence of a new widely used product or the ban on certain substances, on the flows of nanomaterials to the environment in years to come. We show that depending on the scenario and the product type affected, significant changes of the flows occur over time, driven by the growth of stocks and delayed release dynamics.

Thirty-year trends (1975 to 2005) in the magnitude of, management of, and hospital death rates associated with cardiogenic shock in patients with acute myocardial infarction: a population-based perspective.

PubMed

Goldberg, Robert J; Spencer, Frederick A; Gore, Joel M; Lessard, Darleen; Yarzebski, Jorge

2009-03-10

Limited information is available about potentially changing and contemporary trends in the incidence and hospital death rates of cardiogenic shock complicating acute myocardial infarction. The objectives of our study were to examine 3-decade-long trends (1975 to 2005) in the incidence rates of cardiogenic shock complicating acute myocardial infarction, patient characteristics and treatment practices associated with this clinical complication, and hospital death rates in residents of a large central New England community hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction at all area medical centers. The study population consisted of 13 663 residents of the Worcester (Mass) metropolitan area hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction at all greater Worcester medical centers during 15 annual periods between 1975 and 2005. Overall, 6.6% of patients developed cardiogenic shock during their index hospitalization. The incidence rates of cardiogenic shock remained stable between 1975 and the late 1990s but declined in an inconsistent manner thereafter. Patients in whom cardiogenic shock developed had a significantly greater risk of dying during hospitalization (65.4%) than those who did not develop cardiogenic shock (10.6%) (P<0.001). Encouraging increases in hospital survival in patients with cardiogenic shock, however, were observed from the mid-1990s to our most recent study years. Several patient demographic and clinical characteristics were associated with an increased risk for developing cardiogenic shock. Our findings indicate improving trends in the hospital prognosis associated with cardiogenic shock. Given the high death rates associated with this clinical complication, monitoring future trends in the incidence and death rates and the factors associated with an increased risk for developing cardiogenic shock remains warranted.

What Tomorrow May Bring: Trends in Technology and Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molebash, Philip E.

This paper analyzes trends in technology and how they relate to education and then extrapolates these trends in order to predict the future of technology and education. The paper examines how the trends of Moore's Law, the graphical user interface, telecommunications/networks and Metcalfe's Law, the Internet and the World Wide Web, technology…

Forecasting Social Trends as a Basis for Formulating Educational Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Arthur J.

The paper describes how information regarding future trends is collected and made available to educational policy makers. Focusing on educational implications of social and population trends, the paper is based on data derived from use of trend forecasting by educational policy makers in Florida and other southeastern states. The document is…

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Souris River, Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2000-01-01

The Souris River Basin is a 24,600-square-mile basin located in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba.  The Souris River Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group, formed in 1989 by the governments of Canada and the United States, is responsible for documenting trends in water quality in the Souris River and making recommendations for monitoring future water-quality conditions.  This report presents results of a study conducted for the Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health, to analyze historic trends in water quality in the Souris River and to determine efficient sampling designs for monitoring future trends.  U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada water-quality data collected during 1977-96 from four sites near the boundary crossings between Canada and the United States were included in the trend analysis. A parametric time-series model was developed for detecting trends in historic constituent concentration data.  The model can be applied to constituents that have at least 90 percent of observations above detection limits of the analyses, which, for the Souris River, includes most major ions and nutrients and many trace elements.  The model can detect complex nonmonotonic trends in concentration in the presence of complex interannual and seasonal variability in daily discharge.  A key feature of the model is its ability to handle highly irregular sampling intervals.  For example, the intervals between concentration measurements may be be as short as 10 days to as long as several months, and the number of samples in any given year can range from zero to 36. Results from the trend analysis for the Souris River indicated numerous trends in constituent concentration.  The most significant trends at the two sites located near the upstream boundary crossing between Saskatchewan and North Dakota consisted of increases in concentrations of most major ions, dissolved boron, and dissolved arsenic during 1987-91 and decreases in concentrations of the same constituents during 1992-96.  Significant trends at the two sites located near the downstream boundary crossing between North Dakota and Manitoba included increases in dissolved sodium, dissolved chloride, and total phosphorus during 1977-86, decreases in dissolved oxygen and dissolved boron and increases in total phosphorus and dissolved iron during 1987-91, and a decrease in total phosphorus during 1992-96. The time-series model also was used to determine the sensitivity of various sampling designs for monitoring future water-quality trends in the Souris River.  It was determined that at least two samples per year are required in each of three seasons--March through June, July through October, and November through February--to obtain reasonable sensitivity for detecting trends in each season.  In addition, substantial improvements occurred in sensitivity for detecting trends by adding a third sample for major ions and trace elements in March through June, adding a third sample for nutrients in July through October, and adding a third sample for nutrients, trace elements, and dissolved oxygen in November through February.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-05

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-01

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

VII. The history of physical activity and academic performance research: informing the future.

PubMed

Castelli, Darla M; Centeio, Erin E; Hwang, Jungyun; Barcelona, Jeanne M; Glowacki, Elizabeth M; Calvert, Hannah G; Nicksic, Hildi M

2014-12-01

The study of physical activity, physical fitness, and academic performance research are reviewed from a historical perspective, by providing an overview of existing publications focused on children and adolescents. Using rigorous inclusion criteria, the studies were quantified and qualified using both meta-analytic and descriptive evaluations analyses, first by time-period and then as an overall summary, particularly focusing on secular trends and future directions. This review is timely because the body of literature is growing exponentially, resulting in the emergence of new terminology, methodologies, and identification of mediating and moderating factors. Implications and recommendations for future research are summarized. © 2014 The Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Embedded sensor systems for health - providing the tools in future healthcare.

PubMed

Lindén, Maria; Björkman, Mats

2014-01-01

Wearable, embedded sensor systems for health applications are foreseen to be enablers in the future healthcare. They will provide ubiquitous monitoring of multiple parameters without restricting the person to stay at home or in the hospital. By following trend changes in the health status, early deteriorations will be detected and treatment can start earlier. Also health prevention will be supported. Such future healthcare requires technology development, including miniaturized sensors, smart textiles and wireless communication. The tremendous amount of data generated by these systems calls for both signal processing and decision support to guarantee the quality of data and avoid overflow of information. Safe and secure communications have to protect the integrity of the persons monitored.

The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss

PubMed Central

Pimm, Stuart L.; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Smith, Sharon J.

2016-01-01

Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems. PMID:27462984

The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

PubMed

Vijay, Varsha; Pimm, Stuart L; Jenkins, Clinton N; Smith, Sharon J

2016-01-01

Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

Recent fertility trends in industrialized countries: toward a fluctuating or a stable pattern?

PubMed

Day, L H

1995-09-01

The conclusion of this analysis of fertility trends in industrialized countries is that future trends will be evident from accurate data and the inclusion of causal factors such as religion, ethnicity, migration status, marital status, employment status, neighborhood residence, or housing type. Period fertility measures are considered to be unreliable but useful as indicators of potential future changes in fertility. The expectation is that developed countries with low birth rates will have greater fluctuations than trends. Current patterns of fertility in developed countries are thought to have occurred due to substantial control over both the number and the timing of fertility. Patterns in the recent past have reflected further decline, an end to decline and a continued increase, or fluctuation. The most widespread pattern is continued increase following a period of low fertility. This pattern is in evidence in almost every country of northern and western Europe, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand. Countries with continued declines include Japan and eastern and southern European countries, which were the last to experience declines to replacement levels. Countries with fluctuating patterns include Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland. Countries with greater fluctuations include Belgium, Iceland, the former West Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland. The argument is made to not count these patterns as fluctuations due to 1) the similarity in magnitude, timing, and direction; 2) the small changes after the low was reached; and 3) their appearance everywhere at the same time. Stability of rates in the future appears to be a reasonable prospect due to the greater openness about human sexuality and the wider roles for women. Changes have occurred in attitudes about family size in the direction of smaller families, and the range in family size has narrowed considerably. Potential increases may occur due to a new emphasis on family and parenthood, the diminished impact of divorce on childbearing, and greater emotional value placed on children, potential dissatisfaction among women in the work force, and loss of interest in acquisition of consumer items and satiety of human wants.

Utilizing Multi-Ensemble of Downscaled CMIP5 GCMs to Investigate Trends and Spatial and Temporal Extent of Drought in Willamette Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Beal, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Changing climate and potential future increases in global temperature are likely to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cylce. In this study, we analyze changes in temporal and spatial extent of meteorological and hydrological droughts in future, and their trends. Three statistically downscaled datasets from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), and Bias Correction and Spatial Disagregation (BCSD-PSU) each consisting of 10 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) are utilized for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Further, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model is used to simulate streamflow from GCM inputs and assess the hydrological drought characteristics. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are the two indexes used to investigate meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. Study is done for Willamette Basin with a drainage area of 29,700 km2 accommodating more than 3 million inhabitants and 25 dams. We analyze our study for annual time scale as well as three future periods of near future (2010-2039), intermediate future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2099). Large uncertainty is found from GCM predictions. Results reveal that meteorological drought events are expected to increase in near future. Severe to extreme drought with large areal coverage and several years of occurance is predicted around year 2030 with the likelihood of exceptional drought for both drought types. SPI is usually showing positive trends, while SDI indicates negative trends in most cases.

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.; Luo, L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E.; Anderson, B.; Bradbury, J.; DeGaetano, A.; Troy, T.J.; Wolfe, D.

2007-01-01

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Marketing concepts for pharmaceutical service development.

PubMed

Grauer, D W

1981-02-01

Marketing concepts as a mechanism to help pharmacy develop, communicate, and sell future pharmaceutical services to consumers are discussed. Pharmacy as a profession must define itself broadly to take advantage of future growth opportunities. These growth opportunities will be realized from unmet health-care needs and changing consumer life style trends and values. New services must therefore be oriented toward consumers (i.e., patients, health professionals, and third-party agencies) to gain acceptance. Dispensing and drug-knowledge-distribution pharmaceutical services are reviewed by a product life cycle analysis of sales profits versus time. A marketing mix for new pharmaceutical services is developed consisting of service, price, distribution, and promotion strategies. Marketing can encompass those key elements necessary to meet the organizational goals of pharmacy and provide a systematic, disciplined approach for presenting a new service to consumers.

The renewal of humanism in European psychotherapy: developments and applications.

PubMed

Längle, Alfried A; Kriz, Jürgen

2012-12-01

In Europe, humanistic psychotherapy is becoming increasingly widespread. Not only are the explicitly "humanistic" psychotherapies being robustly used, they are increasingly being integrated into approaches not traditionally viewed as humanistic. One can therefore observe a progression in the personalization of methodology within European modes of practice. In the past several decades, humanistic psychology has inspired the expanding use of existential-phenomenological modes of practice. This theoretical base, coupled with recent trends in person-centered systems theory, points toward an invigorating future for humanistic forms of practice in Europe, despite the political trends toward psychotherapeutic practice in Germany. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

The recent progress of isoxazole in medicinal chemistry.

PubMed

Zhu, Jie; Mo, Jun; Lin, Hong-Zhi; Chen, Yao; Sun, Hao-Peng

2018-05-28

Isoxazole compounds exhibit a wide spectrum of targets and broad biological activities. Developing compounds with heterocycle rings has been one of the trends. The integration of isoxazole ring can offer improved physical-chemical properties. Because of the unique profiles, isoxazole ring becomes a popular moiety in compounds design. In this review article, the major focus has been paid to the applications of isoxazole compounds in treating multiple diseases, including anticancer, antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, etc. Strategies for compounds design for preclinical, clinical, and FDA approved drugs were discussed. Also, the emphasis has been addressed to the future perspectives and trend for the application. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plant stem cells in cosmetics: current trends and future directions

PubMed Central

Trehan, Sonia; Michniak-Kohn, Bozena; Beri, Kavita

2017-01-01

Plant regeneration at the cellular and tissue level is a unique process. Similar to animals, the stem cells in plants have properties that help stimulate and regenerate plants after injury. The unique properties of plant stem cells have been a recent area of interest and focus both in developing new cosmetics and studying how these extracts/phytohormones will influence animal skin. This special report focuses on the current evidence-based trends in plant stem cell-based cosmetics and sheds light on the challenges that we need to overcome in order to see meaningful changes in human skin using topical cosmetics derived from plant stem cells. PMID:29134115

Impact of remote sensing upon the planning, management and development of water resources. Summary of computers and computer growth trends for hydrologic modeling and the input of ERTS image data processing load

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castruccio, P. A.; Loats, H. L., Jr.

1975-01-01

An analysis of current computer usage by major water resources users was made to determine the trends of usage and costs for the principal hydrologic users/models. The laws and empirical relationships governing the growth of the data processing loads were described and applied to project the future data loads. Data loads for ERTS CCT image processing were computed and projected through the 1985 era. The analysis showns significant impact due to the utilization and processing of ERTS CCT's data.

Recent trends in the development and evaluation of assistive robotic manipulation devices.

PubMed

Allin, Sonya; Eckel, Emily; Markham, Heather; Brewer, Bambi R

2010-02-01

This review explores recent trends in the development and evaluation of assistive robotic arms, both prosthetic and externally mounted. Evaluations have been organized according to the CATOR taxonomy of assistive device outcomes, which takes into consideration device effectiveness, social significance, and impact on subjective well-being. Questions that have informed the review include: (1) Are robotic arms being comprehensively evaluated along axes of the CATOR taxonomy? (2) Are definitions of effectiveness in accordance with the priorities of users? (3) What gaps in robotic arm evaluation exist, and how might these best be addressed? (4) What further advances can be expected in the next 15 years? Results highlight the need for increased standardization of evaluation methods, increased emphasis on the social significance (i.e., social cost) of devices, and increased emphasis on device impact on quality of life. Several open areas for future research, in terms of both device evaluation and device development, are also discussed.

On the decomposition of life expectancy and limits to life.

PubMed

Mayhew, Les; Smith, David

2015-01-01

Life expectancy is a measure of how long people are expected to live and is widely used as a measure of human development. Variations in the measure reflect not only the process of ageing but also the impacts of such events as epidemics, wars, and economic recessions. Since 1950, the influence of these events in the most developed countries has waned and life expectancy continues to lengthen unabated. As a result, it has become more difficult to forecast long-run trends accurately, or identify possible upper limits. We present new methods for comparing past improvements in life expectancy and also future prospects, using data from five developed, low-mortality countries. We consider life expectancy in 10-year age intervals rather than over the remaining lifetime, and show how natural limits to life expectancy can be used to extrapolate trends. We discuss the implications and compare our approach with other commonly used methods.

The Skills and Training Needed by Farm Management Researchers in the Future: Discussion. Economics Staff Paper 93-4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franklin, Douglas R.

In view of continuing trends in farming and the trend toward increasing farm diversification and specialization, the National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges and individual researchers have proposed their own lists of the skills that will be needed by farm management researchers in the future. Because farm management…

Monitoring the Future National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 1999.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This booklet presents an overview of the findings pertaining to eighth, tenth, and twelfth grade students from the 1999 Monitoring the Future Study. This overview focuses on recent trends in the use of various licit and illicit drugs. It also examines trends in the levels of perceived risk and personal disapproval associated with each drug, which…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2006. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 67

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2007-01-01

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2006: Volume I: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender, college…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2007. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 69

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.; Schulenberg, John E.

2008-01-01

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2007: Volume I: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender, college…

Demographic Subgroup Trends for Various Licit and Illicit Drugs, 1975-2000. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper 53.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Lloyd D.; O'Malley, Patrick M.; Bachman, Jerald G.

This occasional paper is intended to serve as a supplement to the larger annual volume, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2000: Volume 1: Secondary School Students." This supplement contains the graphic presentation of the trends in drug use for various demographic subgroups, namely those defined by gender,…

Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios along the southern limit of the canary upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Magda Catarina; Alvarez, Ines; deCastro, Maite; Gomez-Gesteira, Moncho; Dias, João Miguel

2017-04-01

The Canary Upwelling Ecosystem (CUE) is one of the four most important upwelling sites around the world in terms of primary production, with coastal upwelling mostly a year-round phenomenon south of 30°N. Based on annual future projections, several previous studies indicated that global warming will intensify coastal upwelling in the northern region and will induce its weakening at the southernmost latitudes. However, analysis of historical data, showed that coastal upwelling depends on the length of the time series, the season, and even the database used. Thus, despite previous efforts, an overall detailed description of seasonal upwelling trends and their effects on sea surface temperature (SST) along the Canary coast over the 21st century remains unclear. To address this issue, several regional and global wind and SST climate models from CORDEX and CMIP5 projects for the period 1976-2099 were analyzed. This research provides new insights about coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios for the CUE, with results showing opposite patterns for upwelling index (UI) trends depending on the season. A weakening of the UI occurs from May to August all along the coast, whereas it increases from October to April. Analysis of SST trends reveals a general warming throughout the area, although the warming rate is considerably lower near the shore than at open ocean locations due to coastal upwelling effects. In addition, SST projections show higher warming rates from May to August than from October to April in response to the future decreasing trend in the UI during the summer months.

Future cardiovascular disease in China: Markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

PubMed Central

Moran, Andrew; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong; Coxson, Pamela; Wang, Y. Claire; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Liu, Jing; Cheng, Jun; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Shen, Yu-Ming; He, Jiang; Goldman, Lee

2010-01-01

Background The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail. Methods and Results Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model–China, a Markov computer simulation model. With risk factor levels held constant, projected annual cardiovascular events increased by >50% between 2010 and 2030 based on population aging and growth alone. Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes (increases), and active smoking (decline) would increase annual cardiovascular disease events by an additional 23%, an increase of approximately 21.3 million cardiovascular events and 7.7 million cardiovascular deaths over 2010 to 2030. Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades. Conclusions Aging and population growth will increase cardiovascular disease by more than a half over the coming 20 years, and projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and body mass index may accelerate the epidemic. National policy aimed at controlling blood pressure, smoking, and other risk factors would counteract the expected future cardiovascular disease epidemic in China. PMID:20442213

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Dietary inequalities: what is the evidence for the effect of the neighbourhood food environment?

PubMed

Black, Christina; Moon, Graham; Baird, Janis

2014-05-01

This review summarises the evidence for inequalities in community and consumer nutrition environments from ten previous review articles, and also assesses the evidence for the effect of the community and consumer nutrition environments on dietary intake. There is evidence for inequalities in food access in the US but trends are less apparent in other developed countries. There is a trend for greater access and availability to healthy and less healthy foods relating to better and poorer dietary outcomes respectively. Trends for price show that higher prices of healthy foods are associated with better dietary outcomes. More nuanced measures of the food environment, including multidimensional and individualised approaches, would enhance the state of the evidence and help inform future interventions. © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Progress in battery technology since the First CSULB Annual Battery Conference and prospects for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pickett, David F., Jr.

1992-04-01

An evaluation is made of noteworthy trends in the development of advanced electrochemical cells since January 1986. The advancements noted encompass LiAr batteries, spacecraft power supply Ni-H and Li-SO2 batteries, battery-powered biomedical devices, rechargeable Li-ion batteries, and the development of ambient temperature rechargeable lithium polymer solid electrolyte batteries. Attention is given to OSHA regulatory guidelines for recently commercially introduced advanced battery systems.

An Environmental Analysis: Issues and Trends for Planning and Assessment. Institutional Research Report No. 90-21.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlson, Christina E.; Prather, James E.

This report revises and updates environmental trends that affect present and future planning and assessment at Georgia State University (GSU). The purpose of this environmental analysis is to determine the major trends in the environment, the implications of these trends for higher education and for the institution, and significant opportunities…

Artificial cognitive memory—changing from density driven to functionality driven

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, L. P.; Yi, K. J.; Ramanathan, K.; Zhao, R.; Ning, N.; Ding, D.; Chong, T. C.

2011-03-01

Increasing density based on bit size reduction is currently a main driving force for the development of data storage technologies. However, it is expected that all of the current available storage technologies might approach their physical limits in around 15 to 20 years due to miniaturization. To further advance the storage technologies, it is required to explore a new development trend that is different from density driven. One possible direction is to derive insights from biological counterparts. Unlike physical memories that have a single function of data storage, human memory is versatile. It contributes to functions of data storage, information processing, and most importantly, cognitive functions such as adaptation, learning, perception, knowledge generation, etc. In this paper, a brief review of current data storage technologies are presented, followed by discussions of future storage technology development trend. We expect that the driving force will evolve from density to functionality, and new memory modules associated with additional functions other than only data storage will appear. As an initial step toward building a future generation memory technology, we propose Artificial Cognitive Memory (ACM), a memory based intelligent system. We also present the characteristics of ACM, new technologies that can be used to develop ACM components such as bioinspired element cells (silicon, memristor, phase change, etc.), and possible methodologies to construct a biologically inspired hierarchical system.

From Smart-Eco Building to High-Performance Architecture: Optimization of Energy Consumption in Architecture of Developing Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahdavinejad, M.; Bitaab, N.

2017-08-01

Search for high-performance architecture and dreams of future architecture resulted in attempts towards meeting energy efficient architecture and planning in different aspects. Recent trends as a mean to meet future legacy in architecture are based on the idea of innovative technologies for resource efficient buildings, performative design, bio-inspired technologies etc. while there are meaningful differences between architecture of developed and developing countries. Significance of issue might be understood when the emerging cities are found interested in Dubaization and other related booming development doctrines. This paper is to analyze the level of developing countries’ success to achieve smart-eco buildings’ goals and objectives. Emerging cities of West of Asia are selected as case studies of the paper. The results of the paper show that the concept of high-performance architecture and smart-eco buildings are different in developing countries in comparison with developed countries. The paper is to mention five essential issues in order to improve future architecture of developing countries: 1- Integrated Strategies for Energy Efficiency, 2- Contextual Solutions, 3- Embedded and Initial Energy Assessment, 4- Staff and Occupancy Wellbeing, 5- Life-Cycle Monitoring.

Future climate impacts on maize farming and food security in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Tilele; Madani, Kaveh

2016-11-01

Agriculture is the mainstay of Malawi’s economy and maize is the most important crop for food security. As a Least Developed Country (LDC), adverse effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in Malawi are expected to be significant. We examined the impacts of CC on maize production and food security in Malawi’s dominant cereal producing region, Lilongwe District. We used five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to make future (2011 to 2100) rainfall and temperature projections and simulated maize yields under these projections. Our future rainfall projections did not reveal a strong increasing or decreasing trend, but temperatures are expected to increase. Our crop modelling results, for the short-term future, suggest that maize farming might benefit from CC. However, faster crop growth could worsen Malawi’s soil fertility problem. Increasing temperature could drive lower maize yields in the medium to long-term future. Consequently, up to 12% of the population in Lilongwe District might be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century. Measures to increase soil fertility and moisture must be developed to build resilience into Malawi’s agriculture sector.

Using Functional Data Analysis Models to Estimate Future Time Trends in Age-Specific Breast Cancer Mortality for the United States and England–Wales

PubMed Central

Erbas, Bircan; Akram, Muhammed; Gertig, Dorota M; English, Dallas; Hopper, John L.; Kavanagh, Anne M; Hyndman, Rob

2010-01-01

Background Mortality/incidence predictions are used for allocating public health resources and should accurately reflect age-related changes through time. We present a new forecasting model for estimating future trends in age-related breast cancer mortality for the United States and England–Wales. Methods We used functional data analysis techniques both to model breast cancer mortality-age relationships in the United States from 1950 through 2001 and England–Wales from 1950 through 2003 and to estimate 20-year predictions using a new forecasting method. Results In the United States, trends for women aged 45 to 54 years have continued to decline since 1980. In contrast, trends in women aged 60 to 84 years increased in the 1980s and declined in the 1990s. For England–Wales, trends for women aged 45 to 74 years slightly increased before 1980, but declined thereafter. The greatest age-related changes for both regions were during the 1990s. For both the United States and England–Wales, trends are expected to decline and then stabilize, with the greatest decline in women aged 60 to 70 years. Forecasts suggest relatively stable trends for women older than 75 years. Conclusions Prediction of age-related changes in mortality/incidence can be used for planning and targeting programs for specific age groups. Currently, these models are being extended to incorporate other variables that may influence age-related changes in mortality/incidence trends. In their current form, these models will be most useful for modeling and projecting future trends of diseases for which there has been very little advancement in treatment and minimal cohort effects (eg. lethal cancers). PMID:20139657

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

PubMed

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by individual medical centers to provide advanced warning of future influenza cases.