Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States

Treesearch

Sebastian Martinuzzi; Gregorio I. Gavier-Pizarro; Ariel E. Lugo; Volker C. Radeloff

2015-01-01

Rapid global changes due to changing land use, climate, and non-native species are altering environmental conditions, resulting in more novel communities with unprecedented species combinations. Understanding how future anthropogenic changes may affect novelty in ecosystems is important to advance environmental management and ecological research in the Anthropocene....

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Modelling ecological systems in a changing world

PubMed Central

Evans, Matthew R.

2012-01-01

The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. In such a situation, we need to understand the nature of the change and to make predictions about the way in which it might affect systems of interest; often we may also wish to understand what might be done to mitigate the predicted effects. In ecology, we usually make such predictions (or forecasts) by making use of mathematical models that describe the system and projecting them into the future, under changed conditions. Approaches emphasizing the desirability of simple models with analytical tractability and those that use assumed causal relationships derived statistically from data currently dominate ecological modelling. Although such models are excellent at describing the way in which a system has behaved, they are poor at predicting its future state, especially in novel conditions. In order to address questions about the impact of environmental change, and to understand what, if any, action might be taken to ameliorate it, ecologists need to develop the ability to project models into novel, future conditions. This will require the development of models based on understanding the processes that result in a system behaving the way it does, rather than relying on a description of the system, as a whole, remaining valid indefinitely. PMID:22144381

The Future as a Learning Exercise in Geography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Warren A.

1974-01-01

Future studies used in geographic education, encourages students to think systematically about the future of the society and environment in which they live. Projects involving urban studies, technology, ecology and social change are examined. (JR)

The Economic Impact of Adaptive Responses to Future Scenarios of Socio-Economic and Ecological Change in the Tonle Sap Ecosystem, Cambodia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teh, L.; Bond, N.; KC, K. B.; Fraser, E. D. G.; Seng, R.; Sumaila, R.

2016-12-01

The livelihoods of people dependent on the Tonle Sap floodplain ecosystem in Cambodia are expected to be affected by future socio-economic, policy, ecological, and climate change. To investigate the economic impact of these changes on fishing dependent communities, we compare the net income from individuals' current livelihoods to that derived from reallocating their livelihood activities under 4 different scenarios depicting future change. Under current conditions, we find that the group of individuals who do not participate in fishing had the lowest net income. In contrast, individuals who participated in fishing only had comparatively higher average net income than those with multiple livelihoods, suggesting that there may be current gains from livelihood specialisation. When presented with scenarios of future ecological and socio-economic change, the majority of respondents chose to retain their current livelihood strategy under all future scenarios. Of those who did change their livelihood allocation, less than 10% actually experienced a gain in economic benefits. Overall, a loss in net income was expected under all future scenarios, with those engaged in single livelihoods being the most vulnerable because they were likely to experience the largest losses (7 - 29% loss vs. 1 - 17% for multi-livelihoods) across all 4 scenarios while having the least capacity to adapt. Respondents' choices generated the best economic outcome under the scenario depicting the status quo, indicating that they were capable of coping with current conditions, but were unlikely to make appropriate decisions when faced with future scenarios that they were unfamiliar with. By quantifying the consequences of low adaptive capacity in terms of income loss, this study provides an economic argument for addressing the social and economic factors that currently inhibit the capacity of Tonle Sap inhabitants to adapt to future change. It also emphasises the need for sustainable management of fish and water resources upon which inhabitants are currently heavily dependent upon.

Symposium 9: Rocky Mountain futures: preserving, utilizing, and sustaining Rocky Mountain ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Seastedt, Timothy; Fagre, Daniel B.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Tomback, Diana; Garcia, Elizabeth; Bowen, Zachary H.; Logan, Jesse A.

2013-01-01

In 2002 we published Rocky Mountain Futures, an Ecological Perspective (Island Press) to examine the cumulative ecological effects of human activity in the Rocky Mountains. We concluded that multiple local activities concerning land use, hydrologic manipulation, and resource extraction have altered ecosystems, although there were examples where the “tyranny of small decisions” worked in a positive way toward more sustainable coupled human/environment interactions. Superimposed on local change was climate change, atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and other pollutants, regional population growth, and some national management policies such as fire suppression.

When relationships estimated in the past cannot be used to predict the future: using mechanistic models to predict landscape ecological dynamics in a changing world

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson

2013-01-01

Researchers and natural resource managers need predictions of how multiple global changes (e.g., climate change, rising levels of air pollutants, exotic invasions) will affect landscape composition and ecosystem function. Ecological predictive models used for this purpose are constructed using either a mechanistic (process-based) or a phenomenological (empirical)...

Estimating ecosystem service changes as a precursor to modeling

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Future Midwestern Landscapes Study will project changes in ecosystem services (ES) for alternative future policy scenarios in the Midwestern U.S. Doing so for detailed landscapes over large spatial scales will require serial application of economic and ecological models. W...

Ecological grief as a mental health response to climate change-related loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunsolo, Ashlee; Ellis, Neville R.

2018-04-01

Climate change is increasingly understood to impact mental health through multiple pathways of risk, including intense feelings of grief as people suffer climate-related losses to valued species, ecosystems and landscapes. Despite growing research interest, ecologically driven grief, or `ecological grief', remains an underdeveloped area of inquiry. We argue that grief is a natural and legitimate response to ecological loss, and one that may become more common as climate impacts worsen. Drawing upon our own research in Northern Canada and the Australian Wheatbelt, combined with a synthesis of the literature, we offer future research directions for the study of ecological grief.

Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change.

PubMed

Kuntner, Matjaž; Năpăruş, Magdalena; Li, Daiqin; Coddington, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.

Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

2017-12-01

The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

Using the satellite-derived NDVI to assess ecological responses to environmental change.

PubMed

Pettorelli, Nathalie; Vik, Jon Olav; Mysterud, Atle; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Tucker, Compton J; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-09-01

Assessing how environmental changes affect the distribution and dynamics of vegetation and animal populations is becoming increasingly important for terrestrial ecologists to enable better predictions of the effects of global warming, biodiversity reduction or habitat degradation. The ability to predict ecological responses has often been hampered by our rather limited understanding of trophic interactions. Indeed, it has proven difficult to discern direct and indirect effects of environmental change on animal populations owing to limited information about vegetation at large temporal and spatial scales. The rapidly increasing use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in ecological studies has recently changed this situation. Here, we review the use of the NDVI in recent ecological studies and outline its possible key role in future research of environmental change in an ecosystem context.

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Aggestam, Filip; Rammer, Werner; Blennow, Kristina; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

2016-05-01

Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager's sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.

Evaluating the ecological sustainability of a pinyon-juniper grassland ecosystem in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Reuben Weisz; Jack Triepke; Don Vandendriesche; Mike Manthei; Jim Youtz; Jerry Simon; Wayne Robbie

2010-01-01

In order to develop strategic land management plans, managers must assess current and future ecological conditions. Climate change has expanded the need to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and predict their conditions under different climate change and management scenarios using landscape dynamics simulation models. We present a methodology for developing a...

[Effects of land use structure change on regional ecological health--taking Shapingba County as an example].

PubMed

Wang, Cheng; Wei, Chaofu; Gao, Ming; Luo, Guanglian; Jiang, Wei

2005-12-01

Land resource is the carrier for the exchange of matter, energy and information flows, while the change velocity and the intensity of land use has strong effects on the ecological processes such as matter circulation, energy flow, and biologic diversity. Land use structure change will alter the type, area, and spatial distribution of ecosystem, and in the meantime, result in the changes of regional ecological health. Employing the principles and methods of landscape ecology, and through endowing relative ecological value to land use type, this paper analyzed the charaeteristics of recent 10 years land use change in Shapingba County of Chongqing, and discussed the effects of land use change on regional ecological health, aimed to provide scientific references for land use planning and sustainable land resource utilization. The results indicated that transformation often occurred among different land use types, and the land use structure in each transformation phase differed quite obviously. Under different land use structure, there was a great disparity in relative ecological value of sub-ecosystems, which played various roles in regional ecological health. In general, the regional relative ecological value embodied both increase and decrease. In the future, the relative ecological value of sub-ecosystem would represent three tendencies, i.e., increase first and decrease then, continuous decrease, and continuous increase. The situation of regional ecological health would gradually become better.

Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

PubMed

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Vegetation dynamics associated with changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate in hardwood forests of Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks, USA.

PubMed

McDonnell, T C; Belyazid, S; Sullivan, T J; Bell, M; Clark, C; Blett, T; Evans, T; Cass, W; Hyduke, A; Sverdrup, H

2018-06-01

Ecological effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition on two hardwood forest sites in the eastern United States were simulated in the context of a changing climate using the dynamic coupled biogeochemical/ecological model chain ForSAFE-Veg. The sites are a mixed oak forest in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia (Piney River) and a mixed oak-sugar maple forest in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee (Cosby Creek). The sites have received relatively high levels of both S and N deposition and the climate has warmed over the past half century or longer. The model was used to evaluate the composition of the understory plant communities, the alignment between plant species niche preferences and ambient conditions, and estimate changes in relative species abundances as reflected by plant cover under various scenarios of future atmospheric N and S deposition and climate change. The main driver of ecological effects was soil solution N concentration. Results of this research suggested that future climate change might compromise the capacity for the forests to sustain habitat suitability. However, vegetation results should be considered preliminary until further model validation can be performed. With expected future climate change, preliminary estimates suggest that sustained future N deposition above 7.4 and 5.0 kg N/ha/yr is expected to decrease contemporary habitat suitability for indicator plant species located at Piney River and Cosby Creek, respectively. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.

PubMed

Castillo, Andrea G; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio

2018-01-01

The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species ( L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe ). We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile

PubMed Central

Castillo, Andrea G.; González, Benito A.

2018-01-01

Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe). Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics. PMID:29868293

Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Smith, Shanon M; Carlton, Elizabeth J

2018-06-01

Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.

Functional Group, Biomass, and Climate Change Effects on Ecological Drought in Semiarid Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, S. D.; Schlaepfer, D. R.; Bradford, J. B.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Duniway, M. C.; Hall, S. A.; Jamiyansharav, K.; Jia, G.; Lkhagva, A.; Munson, S. M.; Pyke, D. A.; Tietjen, B.

2018-03-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses and shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake, and transpiration. We modeled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30 year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site-determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally increased biomass (i.e., the effects of invasions that increase community biomass or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought in both current and future climates.

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

2018-01-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas–implications for environmental monitoring

PubMed Central

Vuorinen, Ilppo; Hänninen, Jari; Rajasilta, Marjut; Laine, Päivi; Eklund, Jan; Montesino-Pouzols, Federico; Corona, Francesco; Junker, Karin; Meier, H.E.Markus; Dippner, Joachim W.

2015-01-01

Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to model, firstly, the effects on Baltic Sea salinity of increased runoff due to projected global change and, secondly, the effects of salinity change on the distribution of marine species. The results suggest a critical shift in the S range 5–7, which is a threshold for both freshwater and marine species distributions and diversity. We discuss several topics emphasizing future monitoring, modelling, and fisheries research. Environmental monitoring and modelling are investigated because the developing alternative ecosystems do not necessarily show the same relations to environment quality factors as the retiring ones. An important corollary is that the observed and modelled S changes considered together with species’ ranges indicate what may appear under a future climate. Consequences could include a shift in distribution areas of marine benthic foundation species and some 40–50 other species, affiliated to these. This change would extend over hundreds of kilometres, in the Baltic Sea and the adjacent North Sea areas. Potential cascading effects, in coastal ecology, fish ecology and fisheries would be extensive, and point out the necessity to develop further the “ecosystem approach in the environmental monitoring”. PMID:25737660

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2015-01-01

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Strengthening environmental foresight: potential contributions of futures research

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; George H. Kubik; Peter C. Bishop

2012-01-01

The need for environmental foresight has increased in recent decades as the pace of change has accelerated and the frequency of surprise has increased. Successfully dealing with the growing impacts of change on social-ecological systems depends on our ability to anticipate change. But traditional scientific tools are blunt instruments for studying a future that does...

Engaging communities and climate change futures with Multi-Scale, Iterative Scenario Building (MISB) in the western United States

Treesearch

Daniel Murphy; Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel R. Williams; Cory Cleveland; Lisa Eby; Solomon Dobrowski; Erin Towler

2016-01-01

Current projections of future climate change foretell potentially transformative ecological changes that threaten communities globally. Using two case studies from the United States Intermountain West, this article highlights the ways in which a better articulation between theory and methods in research design can generate proactive applied tools that enable...

Predictive systems ecology

PubMed Central

Evans, Matthew R.; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J.; Dall, Sasha R. X.; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J.; Lewis, Simon L.; Mace, Georgina M.; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K. J.; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M. J.; Benton, Tim G.

2013-01-01

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive. PMID:24089332

Predictive systems ecology.

PubMed

Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

2013-11-22

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Frontiers in research on biodiversity and disease.

PubMed

Johnson, Pieter T J; Ostfeld, Richard S; Keesing, Felicia

2015-10-01

Global losses of biodiversity have galvanised efforts to understand how changes to communities affect ecological processes, including transmission of infectious pathogens. Here, we review recent research on diversity-disease relationships and identify future priorities. Growing evidence from experimental, observational and modelling studies indicates that biodiversity changes alter infection for a range of pathogens and through diverse mechanisms. Drawing upon lessons from the community ecology of free-living organisms, we illustrate how recent advances from biodiversity research generally can provide necessary theoretical foundations, inform experimental designs, and guide future research at the interface between infectious disease risk and changing ecological communities. Dilution effects are expected when ecological communities are nested and interactions between the pathogen and the most competent host group(s) persist or increase as biodiversity declines. To move beyond polarising debates about the generality of diversity effects and develop a predictive framework, we emphasise the need to identify how the effects of diversity vary with temporal and spatial scale, to explore how realistic patterns of community assembly affect transmission, and to use experimental studies to consider mechanisms beyond simple changes in host richness, including shifts in trophic structure, functional diversity and symbiont composition. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Frontiers in research on biodiversity and disease

PubMed Central

Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Keesing, Felicia

2016-01-01

Global losses of biodiversity have galvanised efforts to understand how changes to communities affect ecological processes, including transmission of infectious pathogens. Here, we review recent research on diversity–disease relationships and identify future priorities. Growing evidence from experimental, observational and modelling studies indicates that biodiversity changes alter infection for a range of pathogens and through diverse mechanisms. Drawing upon lessons from the community ecology of free-living organisms, we illustrate how recent advances from biodiversity research generally can provide necessary theoretical foundations, inform experimental designs, and guide future research at the interface between infectious disease risk and changing ecological communities. Dilution effects are expected when ecological communities are nested and interactions between the pathogen and the most competent host group(s) persist or increase as biodiversity declines. To move beyond polarising debates about the generality of diversity effects and develop a predictive framework, we emphasise the need to identify how the effects of diversity vary with temporal and spatial scale, to explore how realistic patterns of community assembly affect transmission, and to use experimental studies to consider mechanisms beyond simple changes in host richness, including shifts in trophic structure, functional diversity and symbiont composition. PMID:26261049

Cultural Change: The How and the Why.

PubMed

Varnum, Michael E W; Grossmann, Igor

2017-11-01

More than half a century of cross-cultural research has demonstrated group-level differences in psychological and behavioral phenomena, from values to attention to neural responses. However, cultures are not static, with several specific changes documented for cultural products, practices, and values. How and why do societies change? Here we juxtapose theory and insights from cultural evolution and social ecology. Evolutionary approaches enable an understanding of the how of cultural change, suggesting transmission mechanisms by which the contents of culture may change. Ecological approaches provide insights into the why of cultural change: They identify specific environmental pressures, which evoke shifts in psychology and thereby enable greater precision in predictions of specific cultural changes based on changes in ecological conditions. Complementary insights from the ecological and cultural evolutionary approaches can jointly clarify the process by which cultures change. We end by discussing the relevance of cultural change research for the contemporary societal shifts and by highlighting several critical challenges and future directions for the emerging field of cross-temporal research on culture and psychology.

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, J.J.; Shafer, S.L.; White, D.; Kareiva, P.; Maurer, E.P.; Blaustein, A.R.; Bartlein, P.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological opportunity and the evolution of habitat preferences in an arid-zone bird: implications for speciation in a climate-modified landscape

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Christidis, Les

2016-01-01

Bioclimatic models are widely used to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distributions. Range shifts are expected to occur as species track their current climate niche yet the potential for exploitation of new ecological opportunities that may arise as ecosystems and communities remodel is rarely considered. Here we show that grasswrens of the Amytornis textilis-modestus complex responded to new ecological opportunities in Australia’s arid biome through shifts in habitat preference following the development of chenopod shrublands during the late Plio-Pleistocene. We find evidence of spatially explicit responses to climatically driven landscape changes including changes in niche width and patterns of population growth. Conservation of structural and functional aspects of the ancestral niche appear to have facilitated recent habitat shifts, while demographic responses to late Pleistocene climate change provide evidence for the greater resilience of populations inhabiting the recently evolved chenopod shrubland communities. Similar responses could occur under future climate change in species exposed to novel ecological conditions, or those already occupying spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models that consider structural and functional aspects of the niche along with regional hydro-dynamics may be better predictors of future climate responses in Australia’s arid biome than bioclimatic models alone. PMID:26787111

White Paper: Summary of the NOAA Workshop - Ecological Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Florida Panhandle and Coastal Alabama: Research and Modeling Needs

EPA Science Inventory

The Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (CSCOR) is addressing current and future impacts to ecological systems due to the long term effect of sea level rise due to climate change and subsidence on coastal ecosystems through the peer-reviewed research program, the Ecologic...

Improving paleoecology studies for future predictions: role of spatial and temporal scales for understanding ecology of the arid and semiarid landscape of the Southwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David M.; Ng, Gene-Hua Crystal; Maher, Katharine

2014-01-01

Paleoecology (or ecological biogeography) describes the past distribution of species or communities and is an informative path used to understand the future in the face of climate change. Paleoecological changes in the Southwest over the past several thousand years happened in the presence of landscape manipulations by humans, a factor that adds relevance but increases difficulty of interpretation. What paleo-records are needed for (1) understanding past climate-driven changes (climate proxies), (2) resolving species sensitivity to and resilience against change (biogeographical data), and (3) understanding past ecosystem function and changes (environmental data)? What information is most urgently needed for ecosystem forecasts, and are there kinds of monitoring we need to start now so that we will have ground truth in the near future? These are major questions. Answering them for the arid and semiarid landscape of the Southwest in part relies on careful thought about the spatial and temporal scales of data needed.

Landscape changes, traditional ecological knowledge and future scenarios in the Alps: A holistic ecological approach.

PubMed

Tattoni, Clara; Ianni, Elena; Geneletti, Davide; Zatelli, Paolo; Ciolli, Marco

2017-02-01

In recent decades, a dramatic landscape change has occurred in the European alpine region: open areas have been naturally recolonized by forests as traditional agricultural and forest activities were reduced and reorganized. Land use changes (LUC) are generally measured through GIS and photo interpretation techniques, but despite many studies focused on this phenomenon and its effects on biodiversity and on the environment in general, there is a lack of information about the transformation of the human-environment connection. The study of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), such as the ability to recognize wild plants used as medicine or food, can suggest how this connection evolved through time and generations. This work investigates the relationship between the natural forest cover expansion that influences the loss of open areas and the loss of TEK. Different data sources and approaches were used to address the topic in all its complexity: a mix of questionnaire investigations, historical maps, GIS techniques and modelling were used to analyse past land use changes and predict future scenarios. The study area, Trentino, Italy, is paradigmatic of the alpine situation, and the land use change in the region is well documented by different studies, which were reviewed and compared in this paper. Our findings suggest that open area loss can be used as a good proxy to highlight the present state and to produce future scenarios of Traditional Ecological Knowledge. This could increase awareness of the loss of TEK in other Alpine regions, where data on TEK are lacking, but where environmental trends are comparable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing for local adaptation and evolutionary potential along altitudinal gradients in rainforest Drosophila: beyond laboratory estimates.

PubMed

O'Brien, Eleanor K; Higgie, Megan; Reynolds, Alan; Hoffmann, Ary A; Bridle, Jon R

2017-05-01

Predicting how species will respond to the rapid climatic changes predicted this century is an urgent task. Species distribution models (SDMs) use the current relationship between environmental variation and species' abundances to predict the effect of future environmental change on their distributions. However, two common assumptions of SDMs are likely to be violated in many cases: (i) that the relationship of environment with abundance or fitness is constant throughout a species' range and will remain so in future and (ii) that abiotic factors (e.g. temperature, humidity) determine species' distributions. We test these assumptions by relating field abundance of the rainforest fruit fly Drosophila birchii to ecological change across gradients that include its low and high altitudinal limits. We then test how such ecological variation affects the fitness of 35 D. birchii families transplanted in 591 cages to sites along two altitudinal gradients, to determine whether genetic variation in fitness responses could facilitate future adaptation to environmental change. Overall, field abundance was highest at cooler, high-altitude sites, and declined towards warmer, low-altitude sites. By contrast, cage fitness (productivity) increased towards warmer, lower-altitude sites, suggesting that biotic interactions (absent from cages) drive ecological limits at warmer margins. In addition, the relationship between environmental variation and abundance varied significantly among gradients, indicating divergence in ecological niche across the species' range. However, there was no evidence for local adaptation within gradients, despite greater productivity of high-altitude than low-altitude populations when families were reared under laboratory conditions. Families also responded similarly to transplantation along gradients, providing no evidence for fitness trade-offs that would favour local adaptation. These findings highlight the importance of (i) measuring genetic variation in key traits under ecologically relevant conditions, and (ii) considering the effect of biotic interactions when predicting species' responses to environmental change. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Water stress projections for the northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: anthropogenic and ecological consequences

Treesearch

Brian G. Tavernia; Mark D. Nelson; Peter Caldwell; Ge Sun

2013-01-01

Future climate and land-use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast...

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change

PubMed Central

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-01-01

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change. PMID:27621443

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change.

PubMed

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-09-27

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.

An Overview of Stream Ecological Responses to Urban Effects and Management Practices in New England

EPA Science Inventory

Many recent studies have found large changes in ecological conditions related to small increases in watershed development. Future development and restoration practices will benefit from better documenting the effectiveness of management practices. We present (1) a brief summary o...

Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A

2015-12-01

Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.

Ecology for a crowded planet

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmer, Margaret; Bernhardt, Emily S.; Chornesky, Elizabeth A.; Collins, Scott L.; Dobson, Andrew; Duke, Clifford; Gold, Barry; Jacobson, Robert; Kingsland, Sharon E.; Kranz, Rhonda H.; Mappin, Michael J.; Martinez, M. Luisa; Micheli, Fiorenza; Morse, Jennifer L.; Pace, Michael L.; Pascual, Mercedes; Palumbi, Stephen S.; Reichman, O. J.; Simons, Ashley; Townsend, Alan R.; Turner, Monica

2004-01-01

Within the next 50 to 100 years, the support and maintenance of an extended human family of 8 to 11 billion people will be difficult at best. The authors of this Policy Forum describe changes that are required if we hope to meet the needs and aspirations of humans while improving the health of our planet's ecosystems. Problems as diverse as disease transmission and global climate change have benefited substantially from advances in ecology. Such advances have set the stage for emergence of a proactive ecological science in which social and political realities are acknowledged and attention is turned decisively toward the future. The ecological sciences must chart an understanding of how ecosystem services can persist given their extensive human use. Innovative research on the sciences of ecosystem services, ecological restoration, and ecological design must be massively accelerated and must be accompanied by more effective communication of ecological knowledge to society.

Ecological Forecasting in the Applied Sciences Program and Input to the Decadal Survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skiles, Joseph

2015-01-01

Ecological forecasting uses knowledge of physics, ecology and physiology to predict how ecosystems will change in the future in response to environmental factors. Further, Ecological Forecasting employs observations and models to predict the effects of environmental change on ecosystems. In doing so, it applies information from the physical, biological, and social sciences and promotes a scientific synthesis across the domains of physics, geology, chemistry, biology, and psychology. The goal is reliable forecasts that allow decision makers access to science-based tools in order to project changes in living systems. The next decadal survey will direct the development Earth Observation sensors and satellites for the next ten years. It is important that these new sensors and satellites address the requirements for ecosystem models, imagery, and other data for resource management. This presentation will give examples of these model inputs and some resources needed for NASA to continue effective Ecological Forecasting.

Potential changes in benthic macrofaunal distributions from the English Channel simulated under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rombouts, Isabelle; Beaugrand, Grégory; Dauvin, Jean-Claude

2012-03-01

Climate-induced changes in the distribution of species are likely to affect the functioning and diversity of marine ecosystems. Therefore, in economic and ecological important areas, such as the English Channel, projections of the future distributions of key species under changing environmental conditions are urgently needed. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have been applied successfully to determine potential distributions of species based on the information of the environmental niche of a species (sensu Hutchinson). In this study, the niches of two commercially exploited benthic species, Pecten maximus and Glycymeris glycymeris, and two ecologically important species, Abra alba and Ophelia borealis were derived using four contemporary hydrographic variables, i.e. sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, water depth and sediment type. Consequently, using these ecological envelopes, the Non-Parametric Probalistic Ecological Niche model (NPPEN) was applied to calculate contemporary probabilities of occurrence for each species in the North East Atlantic and to predict potential re-distributions under the climate change scenario A2 for two time periods 2050-2059 and 2090-2099. Results show general northern displacements of the four benthic species from the English Channel into the North Sea and southern Norwegian coast. The projections mostly indicate a reduction of suitable habitat for benthic species with a notable disappearance of their distributions in the English Channel, except for A. alba. However, interpretations should be treated with caution since many uncertainties and assumptions are attached to ecological niche models in general. Furthermore, opening up potential habitats for benthic species does not necessarily imply that the species will actually occupy these sites in the future. The displacement and colonisation success of species are a function of many other non-climatic factors such as species life histories, dispersal abilities, adaptability and community interactions.

Ecological Carrying Capacity of Land Use Changes in Da'an City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Zhang, J.; Li, B.

2018-04-01

Based on GIS and RS technology, this paper analyzed the land use change in Da'an city from 1995 to 2010. land-use ecological evaluation index was constructed to evaluate the land-use ecological risk of Da 'an city dynamically, and the land-use ecological risk level map was made, and then the distribution and change of the land-use ecological carrying capacity pattern of Da'an city were analyzed qualitatively. According to the evaluation results of ecological carrying capacity, the ecological environment of Da'an city has deteriorated in fifteen years. in 1995, the poor ecological environment area is mainly distributed in the northeast area of Da'an city, and the area is small, while the area of the central and southern areas is large; In 2010, the western region also appeared environmental degradation, the northeast environment deterioration is serious, the dominant area is reduced, and a small amount of deterioration in the central and southern regions. According to the study of this paper, in the future, we should strengthen the comprehensive management of this part of the area, strengthen vegetation coverage, reduce soil erosion, ensure the effective improvement of ecological environment.

Ecological change on California's Channel Islands from the Pleistocene to the Anthropocene

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rick, Torben C.; Sillett, T. Scott; Ghalambor, Cameron K.; Hofman, Courtney A.; Ralls, Katherine; Anderson, R. Scott; Boser, Christina L.; Braje, Todd J.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Chesser, R. Terry; Collins, Paul W.; Erlandson, Jon M.; Faulkner, Kate R.; Fleischer, Robert; Funk, W. Chris; Galipeau, Russell; Huston, Ann; King, Julie; Laughrin, Lyndal L.; Maldonado, Jesus; McEachern, Kathryn; Muhs, Daniel R.; Newsome, Seth D.; Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Still, Christopher; Morrison, Scott A.

2014-01-01

Historical ecology is becoming an important focus in conservation biology and offers a promising tool to help guide ecosystem management. Here, we integrate data from multiple disciplines to illuminate the past, present, and future of biodiversity on California's Channel Islands, an archipelago that has undergone a wide range of land-use and ecological changes. Our analysis spans approximately 20,000 years, from before human occupation and through Native American hunter–gatherers, commercial ranchers and fishers, the US military, and other land managers. We demonstrate how long-term, interdisciplinary research provides insight into conservation decisions, such as setting ecosystem restoration goals, preserving rare and endemic taxa, and reducing the impacts of climate change on natural and cultural resources. We illustrate the importance of historical perspectives for understanding modern patterns and ecological change and present an approach that can be applied generally in conservation management planning.

Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen needleleaf forest types persisted on private lands under all four future scenarios. Result suggest that building collaborations across management borders could be valuable tool to guide natural resource management actions into the future.

AEDT: A new concept for ecological dynamics in the ever-changing world.

PubMed

Chesson, Peter

2017-05-01

The important concept of equilibrium has always been controversial in ecology, but a new, more general concept, an asymptotic environmentally determined trajectory (AEDT), overcomes many concerns with equilibrium by realistically incorporating long-term climate change while retaining much of the predictive power of a stable equilibrium. A population or ecological community is predicted to approach its AEDT, which is a function of time reflecting environmental history and biology. The AEDT invokes familiar questions and predictions but in a more realistic context in which consideration of past environments and a future changing profoundly due to human influence becomes possible. Strong applications are also predicted in population genetics, evolution, earth sciences, and economics.

Evaluation of mitigation measures to reduce hydropeaking impacts on river ecosystems - a case study from the Swiss Alps.

PubMed

Tonolla, Diego; Bruder, Andreas; Schweizer, Steffen

2017-01-01

New Swiss legislation obligates hydropower plant owners to reduce detrimental impacts on rivers ecosystems caused by hydropeaking. We used a case study in the Swiss Alps (hydropower company Kraftwerke Oberhasli AG) to develop an efficient and successful procedure for the ecological evaluation of such impacts, and to predict the effects of possible mitigation measures. We evaluated the following scenarios using 12 biotic and abiotic indicators: the pre-mitigation scenario (i.e. current state), the future scenario with increased turbine capacity but without mitigation measures, and future scenarios with increased turbine capacity and four alternative mitigation measures. The evaluation was based on representative hydrographs and quantitative or qualitative prediction of the indicators. Despite uncertainties in the ecological responses and the future operation mode of the hydropower plant, the procedure allowed the most appropriate mitigation measure to be identified. This measure combines a basin and a cavern at a total retention volume of 80,000m 3 , allowing for substantial dampening in the flow falling and ramping rates and in turn considerable reduction in stranding risk for juvenile trout and in macroinvertebrate drift. In general, this retention volume had the greatest predicted ecological benefit and can also, to some extent, compensate for possible modifications in the hydropower operation regime in the future, e.g. due to climate change, changes in the energy market, and changes in river morphology. Furthermore, it also allows for more specific seasonal regulations of retention volume during ecologically sensitive periods (e.g. fish spawning seasons). Overall experience gained from our case study is expected to support other hydropeaking mitigation projects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future Think Program, San Jose City College, Spring Semester, 1974: Final Report of Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DCM Associates, San Francisco, CA.

San Jose City College's Future Think Program consists of the following courses: Language, Culture, and Change; Third World Since 1945; Marriage and Family; Ecology and Man; Science Fiction; Introduction to Literature: Science Fiction; Introduction to Sociology; and Sociology/Fiction of the Future. An evaluation by an independent consulting firm…

PROJECTED CLIMATE-INDUCED FAUNAL CHANGE IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can e...

Socio-ecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, CA, 1600-2015 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Taylor, A. H.; Skinner, C. N.; Stephens, S.

2016-12-01

In California, large wildfires cause significant socio-ecological impacts and they incur high federal funding costs for fire suppression. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but anthropogenic effects can modulate or even override climatic effects causing large uncertainty in fire projections. We developed a 415-year fire history record (1600-2015 CE) based on tree-ring fire-scar data from 29 sites throughout the Sierra Nevada, California. Changes in socio-ecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove large historical fire regime shifts in our record and socio-ecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation - following mission establishment ca. 1775 CE - reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American immigration (ca. 1865 CE), area burned declined and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1900 CE). The past anthropogenic modulation of fire-climate relationships underscores the need for nuanced representations of human-fire interactions to improve the skill of future fire-climate projections. In California, large wildfires cause significant socio-ecological impacts and they incur high federal funding costs for fire suppression. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but anthropogenic effects can modulate or even override climatic effects causing large uncertainty in fire projections. We developed a 415-year fire history record (1600-2015 CE) based on tree-ring fire-scar data from 29 sites throughout the Sierra Nevada, California. Changes in socio-ecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove large historical fire regime shifts in our record and socio-ecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation - following mission establishment ca. 1775 CE - reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American immigration (ca. 1865 CE), area burned declined and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1900 CE). The past anthropogenic modulation of fire-climate relationships underscores the need for nuanced representations of human-fire interactions to improve the skill of future fire-climate projections.

78 FR 56202 - Ecological Restoration Policy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-12

... natural disturbances, and uncertainty related to climate and other environmental change. On September 22... environmental conditions, such as those driven by a changing climate and increasing human uses. Restoration is... regimes; and likely future environments resulting from climate change and increasing human uses. Although...

‘Antarctic biology in the 21st century - Advances in, and beyond the international polar year 2007-2008’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoddart, Michael

2010-08-01

The International Polar Year 2007-2008 (IPY) has provided an opportunity for biology to show itself as an important part of Antarctic science in a manner in which it was not seen during earlier Polar Years. Of the 15 endorsed biological projects in Antarctica, 7 included more than 20 scientists and could be deemed truly international. Four were conducted in the marine environment, and one each in the fields of biological invasions, microbial ecology, and terrestrial ecology, and one was SCAR’s over-arching ‘Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic’. The marine projects have left a robust legacy of data for future research into the consequences of environmental change, and into future decisions about marine protected areas. Studies on introductions of exotic organisms reveal an ever-present threat to the warmer parts of the high-latitude Southern Ocean, or parts which might become warmer with climate change. Studies on microbial ecology reveal great complexity of ecosystems with high numbers of unknown species. Terrestrial research has shown how vulnerable the Antarctic is to accidental introductions, and how productive the soils can be under changed climate conditions. Antarctic biology has come-of-age during IPY 2007-2008 and the campaign has set the scene for future research.

Arctic climatechange and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Greene, Charles H; Pershing, Andrew J; Cronin, Thomas M; Ceci, Nicole

2008-11-01

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends in sea ice, freshwater export, and surface ocean salinity continue. It is more difficult to predict ecological responses to abrupt climate change in the more distant future as tipping points in the Earth's climate system are exceeded.

Response of a multi-stressed Mediterranean river to future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

PubMed

Stefanidis, Konstantinos; Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Mimikou, Maria

2018-06-15

Streams and rivers are among the most threatened ecosystems in Europe due to the combined effects of multiple pressures related to anthropogenic activities. Particularly in the Mediterranean region, changes in hydromorphology along with increased nutrient loadings are known to affect the ecological functions and ecosystem services of streams and rivers with the anticipated climate change being likely to further impair their functionality and structure. In this study, we investigated the combined effects of agricultural driven stressors on the ecology and delivered services of the Pinios river basin in Greece under three future world scenarios developed within the EU funded MARS project. Scenarios are based on combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and refer to early century (2030) and mid-century (2060) representing future climate worlds with particular socioeconomic characteristics. To assess the responses of ecological and ecosystem service indicators to the scenarios we first simulated hydrology and water quality in Pinios with a process-based model. Simulated abiotic stressor parameters (predictors) were linked to two biotic indicators, the macroinvertebrate indicators ASPT and EPT, with empirical modelling based on boosted regression trees and general linear models. Our results showed that the techno world scenario driven by fast economic growth and intensive exploitation of energy resources had the largest impact on both the abiotic status (nutrient loads and concentrations in water) and the biotic indicators. In contrast, the predicted changes under the other two future worlds, consensus and fragmented, were more diverse and were mostly dictated by the projected climate. This work showed that the future scenarios, especially the mid-century ones, had significant impact on both abiotic status and biotic responses underpinning the need for implementing catchment management practices able to mitigate the ecological threat on waters in the long-term. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In ecoregions across western USA streamflow increases during post-wildfire recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wine, Michael L.; Cadol, Daniel; Makhnin, Oleg

2018-01-01

Continued growth of the human population on Earth will increase pressure on already stressed terrestrial water resources required for drinking water, agriculture, and industry. This stress demands improved understanding of critical controls on water resource availability, particularly in water-limited regions. Mechanistic predictions of future water resource availability are needed because non-stationary conditions exist in the form of changing climatic conditions, land management paradigms, and ecological disturbance regimes. While historically ecological disturbances have been small and could be neglected relative to climatic effects, evidence is accumulating that ecological disturbances, particularly wildfire, can increase regional water availability. However, wildfire hydrologic impacts are typically estimated locally and at small spatial scales, via disparate measurement methods and analysis techniques, and outside the context of climate change projections. Consequently, the relative importance of climate change driven versus wildfire driven impacts on streamflow remains unknown across the western USA. Here we show that considering wildfire in modeling streamflow significantly improves model predictions. Mixed effects modeling attributed 2%-14% of long-term annual streamflow to wildfire effects. The importance of this wildfire-linked streamflow relative to predicted climate change-induced streamflow reductions ranged from 20%-370% of the streamflow decrease predicted to occur by 2050. The rate of post-wildfire vegetation recovery and the proportion of watershed area burned controlled the wildfire effect. Our results demonstrate that in large areas of the western USA affected by wildfire, regional predictions of future water availability are subject to greater structural uncertainty than previously thought. These results suggest that future streamflows may be underestimated in areas affected by increased prevalence of hydrologically relevant ecological disturbances such as wildfire.

Dynamic reserve design in the face of climate change and urbanization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Johnson, Fred A.; Stith, Bradley M.; Bonneau, Mathieu

2015-01-01

Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape‐scale changes from urbanization and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages of USFWS planning. The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge (EHNWR) has recently been established, is at the top of the Presidential Administration’s priority conservation areas, and is cited by the Secretary of DOI routinely in the context of conservation. The new refuges were strategically located for both for species adaptation from climate change impacts as well as currently being host to a number of important threatened and endangered species and habitats. We plan to combine a structured decision making framework, optimal solution theory, and output from ecological and sociological models (these modeling efforts were previously funded by DOI partners) that incorporate climate change to provide guidance for EHNWR reserve design. Utilizing a SDM approach and optimal solution theory, decision support tools will be developed that will incorporate stakeholder and agency objectives into targeting conservation lands both through fee simple purchase and other incentives such as easements based on ecological and socioeconomic modeling outputs driven by climate change.

Climate-change impacts on sandy-beach biota: crossing a line in the sand.

PubMed

Schoeman, David S; Schlacher, Thomas A; Defeo, Omar

2014-08-01

Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under-represented in the literature on climate-change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate-change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate-change impacts on sandy-shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate-change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate-change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate-change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.

Responding to the Ecological Crisis: Transformative Pathways for Social Work Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Peter

2010-01-01

The nature and extent of the current ecological crisis raises the question: Does social work have a contribution to make in addressing the social and environmental changes required if we are to move toward a sustainable future? Given the links between the traditional concerns of social work and the emerging concerns of environmental and ecological…

Large-scale interdisciplinary experiments inform current and future forestry management options in the U.S

Treesearch

C.E. Peterson; P.D. Anderson

2009-01-01

Over the last 20 years, changing public values and increased ecological understanding have led to a paradigm shift in forestry from timber management to sustainable ecosystem management on U.S. federal lands. Forest managers are now seeking alternative management approaches that simultaneously meet socio-cultural, ecological and economic goals. Consequently, many field...

Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management

Treesearch

S.W. Golladay; K.L. Martin; J. M. Vose; D. N. Wear; A.P. Covich; R.J. Hobbs; Kier Klepzig; G.E. Likens; R.J. Naiman; A.W. Shearer

2016-01-01

We contend that traditional approaches to forest conservation and management will be inadequate given the predicted scale of social-economic and biophysical changes in the 21st century. New approaches, focused on anticipating and guiding ecological responses to change, are urgently needed to ensure the full value of forest ecosystem services for future generations....

MONITORING ECOSYSTEMS FROM SPACE: THE GLOBAL FIDUCIALS PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

Images from satellites provide valuable insights to changes in land-cover and ecosystems. Long- term monitoring of ecosystem change using historical satellite imagery can provide quantitative measures of ecological processes and allows for estimation of future ecosystem condition...

Verification of watershed vegetation restoration policies, arid China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chengqi; Li, Yu

2016-01-01

Verification of restoration policies that have been implemented is of significance to simultaneously reduce global environmental risks while also meeting economic development goals. This paper proposed a novel method according to the idea of multiple time scales to verify ecological restoration policies in the Shiyang River drainage basin, arid China. We integrated modern pollen transport characteristics of the entire basin and pollen records from 8 Holocene sedimentary sections, and quantitatively reconstructed the millennial-scale changes of watershed vegetation zones by defining a new pollen-precipitation index. Meanwhile, Empirical Orthogonal Function method was used to quantitatively analyze spatial and temporal variations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in summer (June to August) of 2000–2014. By contrasting the vegetation changes that mainly controlled by millennial-scale natural ecological evolution with that under conditions of modern ecological restoration measures, we found that vegetation changes of the entire Shiyang River drainage basin are synchronous in both two time scales, and the current ecological restoration policies met the requirements of long-term restoration objectives and showed promising early results on ecological environmental restoration. Our findings present an innovative method to verify river ecological restoration policies, and also provide the scientific basis to propose future emphasizes of ecological restoration strategies. PMID:27470948

Verification of watershed vegetation restoration policies, arid China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chengqi; Li, Yu

2016-07-01

Verification of restoration policies that have been implemented is of significance to simultaneously reduce global environmental risks while also meeting economic development goals. This paper proposed a novel method according to the idea of multiple time scales to verify ecological restoration policies in the Shiyang River drainage basin, arid China. We integrated modern pollen transport characteristics of the entire basin and pollen records from 8 Holocene sedimentary sections, and quantitatively reconstructed the millennial-scale changes of watershed vegetation zones by defining a new pollen-precipitation index. Meanwhile, Empirical Orthogonal Function method was used to quantitatively analyze spatial and temporal variations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in summer (June to August) of 2000-2014. By contrasting the vegetation changes that mainly controlled by millennial-scale natural ecological evolution with that under conditions of modern ecological restoration measures, we found that vegetation changes of the entire Shiyang River drainage basin are synchronous in both two time scales, and the current ecological restoration policies met the requirements of long-term restoration objectives and showed promising early results on ecological environmental restoration. Our findings present an innovative method to verify river ecological restoration policies, and also provide the scientific basis to propose future emphasizes of ecological restoration strategies.

[Wetland landscape pattern change based on GIS and RS: a review].

PubMed

Kong, Fan-Ting; Xi, Min; Li, Yue; Kong, Fan-Long; Chen, Wan

2013-04-01

Wetland is an ecological landscape with most biodiversity in nature, which has unique ecological structure and function, and contains abundant natural resources to provide material guarantee for human's living and development. Wetland landscape pattern is the comprehensive result of various ecological processes, and has become a hot issue in wetland ecological study. At present, the combination of geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technologies is an important way to study the wetland landscape pattern change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the wetland landscape change based on GIS and RS from the aspects of the research methods of wetland landscape pattern, index of wetland landscape pattern, and driving forces of wetland landscape pattern evolution, and discussed the applications of the combination of GIS and RS in monitoring the wetland landscape pattern change, the index selection of wetland landscape pattern, and the driving mechanisms of the combined action of human and nature. Some deficiencies in the current studies were put forward, and the directions of the future-studies were prospected.

Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site Ecological Monitoring Program 1995 annual report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-05-31

The Ecological Monitoring Program (ECMP) was established at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) in September 1992. At that time, EcMP staff developed a Program Plan that was peer-reviewed by scientists from western universities before submittal to DOE RFFO in January 1993. The intent of the program is to measure several quantitative variables at different ecological scales in order to characterize the Rocky Flats ecosystem. This information is necessary to document ecological conditions at the Site in impacted and nonimpacted areas to determine if Site practices have had ecological impacts, either positive or negative. This information can be usedmore » by managers interested in future use scenarios and CERCLA activities. Others interested in impact analysis may also find the information useful. In addition, these measurements are entered into a database which will serve as a long-term information repository that will document long-term trends and potential future changes to the Site, both natural and anthropogenic.« less

Modeling the impact of climate change on wild Piper nigrum (Black Pepper) in Western Ghats, India using ecological niche models.

PubMed

Sen, Sandeep; Gode, Ameya; Ramanujam, Srirama; Ravikanth, G; Aravind, N A

2016-11-01

The center of diversity of Piper nigrum L. (Black Pepper), one of the highly valued spice crops is reported to be from India. Black pepper is naturally distributed in India in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot and is the only known existing source of its wild germplasm in the world. We used ecological niche models to predict the potential distribution of wild P. nigrum in the present and two future climate change scenarios viz (A1B) and (A2A) for the year 2080. Three topographic and nine uncorrelated bioclim variables were used to develop the niche models. The environmental variables influencing the distribution of wild P. nigrum across different climate change scenarios were identified. We also assessed the direction and magnitude of the niche centroid shift and the change in niche breadth to estimate the impact of projected climate change on the distribution of P. nigrum. The study shows a niche centroid shift in the future climate scenarios. Both the projected future climate scenarios predicted a reduction in the habitat of P. nigrum in Southern Western Ghats, which harbors many wild accessions of P. nigrum. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on P. nigrum and provide useful information for designing sound germplasm conservation strategies for P. nigrum.

Experimental strategies to assess the biological ramifications of multiple drivers of global ocean change-A review.

PubMed

Boyd, Philip W; Collins, Sinead; Dupont, Sam; Fabricius, Katharina; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Havenhand, Jonathan; Hutchins, David A; Riebesell, Ulf; Rintoul, Max S; Vichi, Marcello; Biswas, Haimanti; Ciotti, Aurea; Gao, Kunshan; Gehlen, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Kurihara, Haruko; McGraw, Christina M; Navarro, Jorge M; Nilsson, Göran E; Passow, Uta; Pörtner, Hans-Otto

2018-06-01

Marine life is controlled by multiple physical and chemical drivers and by diverse ecological processes. Many of these oceanic properties are being altered by climate change and other anthropogenic pressures. Hence, identifying the influences of multifaceted ocean change, from local to global scales, is a complex task. To guide policy-making and make projections of the future of the marine biosphere, it is essential to understand biological responses at physiological, evolutionary and ecological levels. Here, we contrast and compare different approaches to multiple driver experiments that aim to elucidate biological responses to a complex matrix of ocean global change. We present the benefits and the challenges of each approach with a focus on marine research, and guidelines to navigate through these different categories to help identify strategies that might best address research questions in fundamental physiology, experimental evolutionary biology and community ecology. Our review reveals that the field of multiple driver research is being pulled in complementary directions: the need for reductionist approaches to obtain process-oriented, mechanistic understanding and a requirement to quantify responses to projected future scenarios of ocean change. We conclude the review with recommendations on how best to align different experimental approaches to contribute fundamental information needed for science-based policy formulation. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding Water-Energy-Ecology Nexus from an Integrated Earth-Human System Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Zhuang, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Both Earth and human systems exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production and ecosystem health. An integrated water model representing river processes and reservoir regulations has been developed and coupled to a land surface model and an integrated assessment model of energy, land, water, and socioeconomics to investigate the energy-water-ecology nexus in the context of climate change and water management. Simulations driven by two climate change projections following the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature in the U.S. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on hydrological droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to thermoelectricity production and future survival of juvenile Salmon. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME), a coupled Earth System Model, to enable future investigations of the energy-water-ecology nexus in the integrated Earth-Human system.

Modeling and Remote Sensing of Surface Water Dynamics in the Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Y. N.

2017-12-01

The Mekong river is one of the most complex river systems in the world that is shared by six nations in Southeast Asia. The river still remains relatively undammed (most existing dams are in the tributaries and are small), and its hydrology today is dominated by large natural flow variations that support the highly productive agricultural and riverine ecological systems; however, this is changing due to the alterations in land use and construction of new dams both in the tributaries the mainstream (16 mainstream and 110 tributary dams are planned to be completed by 2030). Understanding the changes in surface water dynamics is therefore crucial to provide realistic future predictions of changes in downstream floodplain and riverine ecology due to the construction of dams in the upstream. In this study, we use an integrated hydrological model and remote sensing data to examine the critical role of surface water systems in modulating the river-floodplain ecology in the lower reach of the basin, with a focus on the Tonle Sap lake. We present results on the changes in the seasonality and long-term trend in river-floodplain inundation extent over the past few decades. These results provide new insights on the changing hydrology of the Mekong and important implications for potential future hydrologic changes under accelerating human activities and climate change.

How long can global ecological overshoot last?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McBain, Bonnie; Lenzen, Manfred; Wackernagel, Mathis; Albrecht, Glenn

2017-08-01

The ability of the Ecological Footprint to communicate complex environmental information in a clear and accessible way is well known; however, with growing environmental complexity, we will require increasingly sophisticated environmental indicators to inform our decisions. We have developed an integrated and dynamic global model to investigate future trajectories of the Ecological Footprint. Under a range of futures and without the mitigation of human resource demand, we find that the discrepancy between global demand and renewable supply of resources is likely to increase. Continued overshoot, although possible in the short term, means the global community is increasingly exposed to risks of environmental collapse due to the approach of at least two planetary boundaries relating to land use expansion and climate change. We show that, the Ecological Footprint trajectory and the time between the commencement of ecological overshoot and ecological collapse is sensitive to global technological, economic and population policy decisions. Importantly, this work presents a tool which can be used to support transdisciplinary decision-maker collaborations examining the risk associated with alternative policy options in the face of uncertainty at multiple scales.

The implications of using large ensembles of climate scenarios for the management of river ecology in an English chalk stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, C. F.; Lopez, A.; New, M.

2009-04-01

Climate change is likely to impact on freshwater ecology, the delivery of regulatory commitments to ecological status and the management of water resources. It is becoming increasingly important for European environment agencies to use and develop methods to aid planning and abstraction licensing procedures and policies in the face of climate change and with the introduction of the Water Framework Directive. Studies have been carried out in the past to investigate the implications of climate change for biodiversity. However, predicting the future is fraught with uncertainty, an area which has not been dealt with in great depth in the past. This study has been undertaken to draw on the results of new methodologies to address the uncertainties inherent in modelling future climate and assess their usability for decision-making in water resources allocations specifically in considering interactions between flow and invertebrate communities The River Itchen was chosen as the case study catchment on the strength of having a long-term coupled ecological and flow dataset and having been an area of intensive study in the past. It is a chalk stream located in the south of England and a candidate Special Area of Conservation. It has also been designated a Special Site of Scientific Interest achieved due to the number of rare species, and the richness of the macro-invertebrate community in the river catchment. An ensemble of 246 transient simulations for future climate was obtained from ClimatePrediction.net which were then used to drive a rainfall-runoff model. In order to link the modelled river flow to ecology, the Lotic Invertebrate Flow Evaluation score has been used where the invertebrate community is linked to flow largely through sensitivity to water velocity and siltation, driven by flow variability at sites with fixed channel dimensions The large ensemble of climate scenarios and thereby flow and ecological indices allows the exploration of the risk of the river of not meeting environmental flow targets in the future. Three sets of environmental flow targets which were drawn up by the Environment Agency for England and Wales for the River Itchen were tested and show that it may be difficult to maintain a natural chalk stream invertebrate community in the River Itchen in the future. The ensemble also shows low flows regularly extending from August to December which could result in the loss of a high proportion of individuals recruited that year. This would in turn lead to diminished over-wintering populations, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the following years breeding and recruitment programme. Due to a paucity of quantitative data for the response of macroinvertebrates to multi-year droughts, to provide a richer story, a matrix has been proposed for analysing the effects on biodiversity of the river which combines both the thresholds derived previously and expert opinion on how the ecology of the River Itchen will react to climate change. The matrices also provide a more accessible way of communicating rather complex information to a wider community of decision-makers. Should large changes in flow arise in the future it is likely that some form of action will be taken to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of climate change. Maintaining the ecological status of the river throug river support, i.e. augmenting river flow by pumping from the groundwater aquifer, has also been investigated. However, by augmenting the flow, the high flows are also reduced which can be important for scouring the river bed and removing silt to the benefit of the invertebrate community. Therefore at some point further augmentation may need to be curtailed in order to maintain high flows.

Prestoration: Using species in restoration that will persist now and into the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, B.J.; Copeland, Stella; Munson, Seth M.; Roybal, C.M.; Wood, Troy E.

2017-01-01

Climate change presents new challenges for selecting species for restoration. If migration fails to keep pace with climate change, as models predict, the most suitable sources for restoration may not occur locally at all. To address this issue we propose a strategy of “prestoration”: utilizing species in restoration for which a site represents suitable habitat now and into the future. Using the Colorado Plateau, USA as a case study, we assess the ability of grass species currently used regionally in restoration to persist into the future using projections of ecological niche models (or climate envelope models) across a suite of climate change scenarios. We then present a technique for identifying new species that best compensate for future losses of suitable habitat by current target species. We found that the current suite of species, selected by a group of experts, is predicted to perform reasonably well in the short-term, but that losses of prestorable habitat by mid-century would approach 40%. Using an algorithm to identify additional species, we found that fewer than ten species could compensate for nearly all of the losses incurred by the current target species. This case study highlights the utility of integrating ecological niche modeling and future climate forecasts to predict the utility of species in restoring under climate change across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

A social–ecological perspective for riverscape management in the Columbia River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hand, Brian K.; Flint, Courtney G.; Frissell, Chris A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Devlin, Shawn P.; Kennedy, Brian P.; Crabtree, Robert L.; McKee, W. Arthur; Luikart, Gordon; Stanford, Jack A.

2018-01-01

Riverscapes are complex, landscape-scale mosaics of connected river and stream habitats embedded in diverse ecological and socioeconomic settings. Social–ecological interactions among stakeholders often complicate natural-resource conservation and management of riverscapes. The management challenges posed by the conservation and restoration of wild salmonid populations in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) of western North America are one such example. Because of their ecological, cultural, and socioeconomic importance, salmonids present a complex management landscape due to interacting environmental factors (eg climate change, invasive species) as well as socioeconomic and political factors (eg dams, hatcheries, land-use change, transboundary agreements). Many of the problems in the CRB can be linked to social–ecological interactions occurring within integrated ecological, human–social, and regional–climatic spheres. Future management and conservation of salmonid populations therefore depends on how well the issues are understood and whether they can be resolved through effective communication and collaboration among ecologists, social scientists, stakeholders, and policy makers.

Large-scale interdisciplinary experiments inform current and future forestry management options in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Charles E. Peterson; Paul D. Anderson

2009-01-01

Over the last 20 years, changing public values and increased ecological understanding have led to a paradigm shift in forestry from timber management to sustainable ecosystem management on U.S. federal lands. Forest managers are now seeking alternative management approaches that simultaneously meet socio-cultural, ecological and economic goals. Consequently, many field...

Culturally induced range infilling of eastern redcedar: a problem in ecology, an ecological problem, or both?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Streit Krug, Aubrey; Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Twidwell, Dirac

2017-01-01

The philosopher John Passmore distinguished between (1) “problems in ecology,” or what we might call problems in scientific understanding of ecological change, and (2) “ecological problems,” or what we might call problems faced by societies due to ecological change. The spread of eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana) and conversion of the central and southern Great Plains of North America to juniper woodland might be categorized as a problem in ecology, an ecological problem, or both. Here, we integrate and apply two interdisciplinary approaches to problem-solving—social-ecological systems thinking and ecocriticism—to understand the role of human culture in recognizing, driving, and responding to cedar’s changing geographic distribution. We interpret the spread of cedar as a process of culturally induced range infilling due to the ongoing social-ecological impacts of colonization, analyze poetic literary texts to clarify the concepts that have so far informed different cultural values related to cedar, and explore the usefulness of diverse interdisciplinary collaborations and knowledge for addressing social-ecological challenges like cedar spread in the midst of rapidly unfolding global change. Our examination suggests that it is not only possible, but preferable, to address cedar spread as both a scientific and a social problem. Great Plains landscapes are teetering between grassland and woodland, and contemporary human societies both influence and choose how to cope with transitions between these ecological states. We echo previous studies in suggesting that human cultural values about stability and disturbance, especially cultural concepts of fire, will be primary driving factors in determining future trajectories of change on the Great Plains. Although invasion-based descriptors of cedar spread may be useful in ecological research and management, language based on the value of restraint could provide a common vocabulary for effective cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary communication about the relationship between culture and cedar, as well as an ethical framework for cross-cultural communication, decision-making, and management.

Enlightening Butterfly Conservation Efforts: The Importance of Natural Lighting for Butterfly Behavioral Ecology and Conservation

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Light is arguably the most important abiotic factor for living organisms. Organisms evolved under specific lighting conditions and their behavior, physiology, and ecology are inexorably linked to light. Understanding light effects on biology could not be more important as present anthropogenic effects are greatly changing the light environments in which animals exist. The two biggest anthropogenic contributors changing light environments are: (1) anthropogenic lighting at night (i.e., light pollution); and (2) deforestation and the built environment. I highlight light importance for butterfly behavior, physiology, and ecology and stress the importance of including light as a conservation factor for conserving butterfly biodiversity. This review focuses on four parts: (1) Introducing the nature and extent of light. (2) Visual and non-visual light reception in butterflies. (3) Implications of unnatural lighting for butterflies across several different behavioral and ecological contexts. (4). Future directions for quantifying the threat of unnatural lighting on butterflies and simple approaches to mitigate unnatural light impacts on butterflies. I urge future research to include light as a factor and end with the hopeful thought that controlling many unnatural light conditions is simply done by flipping a switch. PMID:29439549

Simulating landscape change in the Olympic Peninsula using spatial ecological and socioeconomic data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flamm, R.O.; Gottfried, R.; Lee, R.G.

1994-06-01

Ecological and socioeconomic data were integrated to study landscape change for the Dungeness River basin in the Olympic Peninsula, Washington State. A multinomial logit procedure was used to evaluate twenty-two maps representing various data themes to derive transition probabilities of land cover change. Probabilities of forest disturbance were greater on private land than public. Between 1975 and 1988, forest cover increased, grassy/brushy covers decreased, and the number of forest patches increased about 30%. Simulations were run to estimate future land cover. These results were represented as frequency distributions for proportion cover and patch characteristics.

Climate and Land Use Change Effects on Ecological Resources in Three Watersheds: A Synthesis Report (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of this draft report is to provide a summary of climate change impacts to selected watersheds and recommendations for how to improve the process of conducting watershed assessments in the future.

Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios.

PubMed

Laporta, Gabriel Zorello; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Wilkerson, Richard C; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino; Nagaki, Sandra Sayuri; Sant'Ana, Denise Cristina; Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb

2015-08-19

Malaria remains a significant public health issue in South America. Future climate change may influence the distribution of the disease, which is dependent on the distribution of those Anopheles mosquitoes competent to transmit Plasmodium falciparum. Herein, predictive niche models of the habitat suitability for P. falciparum, the current primary vector Anopheles darlingi and nine other known and/or potential vector species of the Neotropical Albitarsis Complex, were used to document the current situation and project future scenarios under climate changes in South America in 2070. To build each ecological niche model, we employed topography, climate and biome, and the currently defined distribution of P. falciparum, An. darlingi and nine species comprising the Albitarsis Complex in South America. Current and future (i.e., 2070) distributions were forecast by projecting the fitted ecological niche model onto the current environmental situation and two scenarios of simulated climate change. Statistical analyses were performed between the parasite and each vector in both the present and future scenarios to address potential vector roles in the dynamics of malaria transmission. Current distributions of malaria vector species were associated with that of P. falciparum, confirming their role in transmission, especially An. darlingi, An. marajoara and An. deaneorum. Projected climate changes included higher temperatures, lower water availability and biome modifications. Regardless of future scenarios considered, the geographic distribution of P. falciparum was exacerbated in 2070 South America, with the distribution of the pathogen covering 35-46% of the continent. As the current primary vector An. darlingi showed low tolerance for drier environments, the projected climate change would significantly reduce suitable habitat, impacting both its distribution and abundance. Conversely, climate generalist members of the Albitarsis Complex showed significant spatial and temporal expansion potential in 2070, and we conclude these species will become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America. Our data suggest that climate and landscape effects will elevate the importance of members of the Albitarsis Complex in malaria transmission in South America in 2070, highlighting the need for further studies addressing the bionomics, ecology and behaviours of the species comprising the Albitarsis Complex.

Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietze, Michael C.; Fox, Andrew; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Keitt, Tim H.; Kenney, Melissa; Laney, Christine; Larsen, Laurel; Loescher, Henry W.; Lunch, Claire; Pijanowski, Bryan; Randerson, James T.; Read, Emily; Tredennick, Andrew T.; Weathers, Kathleen; White, Ethan P.

2016-01-01

A fundamental environmental challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond is predicting the impacts of global environmental change. This challenge is complicated by the fact that we live on a non-stationary, unreplicated planet that is rapidly moving outside the envelope of natural variability into an historical non-analog world. In other words, while the past helps inform us about how the world has worked, it may no longer be the relevant frame of reference for management, conservation, and sustainability. In this future world the two questions at the foundation of sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect this trajectory?” These are, at their heart, questions about ecological forecasting.

Climatic changes and flooding durations in relation with public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoz, A.; Roumieux, C.; Trouillet, A.

2009-04-01

Climatic Changes, and more generaly Global Changes, play a major role in environmental modifications in relation with public health. Modifications of temperatures, precipitations... influence ecological habitats. These habitats can be adapted for some animals species, responsable of certain pandemics. Mosquitoes and birds represent for certain pandemics the essential elements of virus transmission. Abundance of mosquitoes and birds species, is heavily conditioned by flooded areas extent and specific habitats and their variations. The study we carried, has been done in South of France. We show present status of ecological habitats and flooded durations and future previsions. We reach environment impact for certain virus like West Nile virus. This virus affects bird, horse and sometimes man. Presence of the virus is conditioned by different factors, primarily including vector distribution (mosquitoes). We show how it's possible to localise favorable areas for the virus and to predict its future expansion areas. We present maps of the possibilities for future concerning previsions of bioclimatic steps variations. Thanks to the latest remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques. Our maps may be used as precious tools to help decision makers when faced with mosquito related problems.

Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jie; Wang, Hao; Ning, Shaowei; Hiroshi, Ishidaira

2018-06-01

Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM). In addition, future leaf area index (LAI) is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC) based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

Multiple stressor effects on biological quality elements in the Ebro River: Present diagnosis and predicted responses.

PubMed

Herrero, Albert; Gutiérrez-Cánovas, Cayetano; Vigiak, Olga; Lutz, Stefanie; Kumar, Rohini; Gampe, David; Huber-García, Verena; Ludwig, Ralf; Batalla, Ramon; Sabater, Sergi

2018-07-15

Multiple abiotic stressors affect the ecological status of water bodies. The status of waterbodies in the Ebro catchment (NE Spain) is evaluated using the biological quality elements (BQEs) of diatoms, invertebrates and macrophytes. The multi-stressor influence on the three BQEs was evaluated using the monitoring dataset available from the catchment water authority. Nutrient concentrations, especially total phosphorus (TP), affected most of the analyzed BQEs, while changes in mean discharge, water temperature, or river morphology did not show significant influences. Linear statistical models were used to evaluate the change of water bodies' ecological status under different combinations of future socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Changes in land use, rainfall, water temperature, mean discharge, TP and nitrate concentrations were modeled according to the future scenarios. These revealed an evolution of the abiotic stressors that could lead to a general decrease in the ecosystem quality of water bodies within the Ebro catchment. This deterioration was especially evidenced on the diatoms and invertebrate biological indices, mainly because of the foreseen increase in TP concentrations. Water bodies located in the headwaters were seen as the most sensitive to future changes. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seventy Years of Forest Change in the Northern Great Lakes Region, USA

Treesearch

Lisa A. Schulte; Thomas R. Crow; Dave Cleland

2003-01-01

The rates and magnitudes of forest change have important social and economic implications. We address facets of change associated with 20th century recovery of the U.S. Lake States (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) forests from the Great Cutover, and discuss ecological and socioeconomic implications for future forest resources.

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Wernberg, Thomas; Mieszkowska, Nova; Widdicombe, Stephen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Connell, Sean D.

2012-01-01

Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates. PMID:21900317

Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services.

PubMed

Lavorel, Sandra; Colloff, Matthew J; McIntyre, Sue; Doherty, Michael D; Murphy, Helen T; Metcalfe, Daniel J; Dunlop, Michael; Williams, Richard J; Wise, Russell M; Williams, Kristen J

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling historic variation and its application for understanding future variability (section 3)

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane

2012-01-01

Although some may doubt its usefulness in a future with rapidly changing climates, exotic introductions, and increased human land use, the historical range of variation (HRV) of ecological landscape characteristics provides a relatively useful reference point for evaluating the impacts of landmanagement activities. Unfortunately, comprehensive spatial and temporal data...

Land-use and land-cover scenarios and spatial modeling at the regional scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2012-01-01

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change has altered a large part of the earth's surface. Scenarios of potential future LULC change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on biodiversity, carbon fluxes, climate change, hydrology, and many other ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey is analyzing potential future LULC change in the United States, using an approach based on scenario construction and spatially explicit modeling. Similar modeling techniques are being used to produce historical LULC maps from 1940 to present. With the combination of backcast and forecast LULC data, the USGS is providing consistent LULC data for historical, current, and future time frames to support a variety of research applications.

Effects of anthropogenic noise on endocrine and reproductive function in White's treefrog, Litoria caerulea

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Kristine; Devito, Julia; Jones, Caitlin G.; Marentes, Adam; Perez, Rachel; Umeh, Lisa; Weickum, Regina M.; McGovern, Kathryn E.; Wilson, Emma H.; Saltzman, Wendy

2015-01-01

Urbanization is a major driver of ecological change and comes with a suite of habitat modifications, including alterations to the local temperature, precipitation, light and noise regimes. Although many recent studies have investigated the behavioural and ecological ramifications of urbanization, physiological work in this area has lagged. We tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic noise is a stressor for amphibians and that chronic exposure to such noise leads to reproductive suppression. In the laboratory, we exposed male White's treefrogs, Litoria caerulea, to conspecific chorus noise either alone or coupled with pre-recorded traffic noise nightly for 1 week. Frogs presented with anthropogenic noise had significantly higher circulating concentrations of corticosterone and significantly decreased sperm count and sperm viability than did control frogs. These results suggest that in addition to having behavioural and ecological effects, anthropogenic change might alter physiology and Darwinian fitness. Future work should integrate disparate fields such as behaviour, ecology and physiology to elucidate fully organisms’ responses to habitat change. PMID:27293682

Ocean acidification may aggravate social-ecological trade-offs in coastal fisheries.

PubMed

Voss, Rudi; Quaas, Martin F; Schmidt, Jörn O; Kapaun, Ute

2015-01-01

Ocean Acidification (OA) will influence marine ecosystems by changing species abundance and composition. Major effects are described for calcifying organisms, which are significantly impacted by decreasing pH values. Direct effects on commercially important fish are less well studied. The early life stages of fish populations often lack internal regulatory mechanisms to withstand the effects of abnormal pH. Negative effects can be expected on growth, survival, and recruitment success. Here we study Norwegian coastal cod, one of the few stocks where such a negative effect was experimentally quantified, and develop a framework for coupling experimental data on OA effects to ecological-economic fisheries models. In this paper, we scale the observed physiological responses to the population level by using the experimentally determined mortality rates as part of the stock-recruitment relationship. We then use an ecological-economic optimization model, to explore the potential effect of rising CO2 concentration on ecological (stock size), economic (profits), consumer-related (harvest) and social (employment) indicators, with scenarios ranging from present day conditions up to extreme acidification. Under the assumptions of our model, yields and profits could largely be maintained under moderate OA by adapting future fishing mortality (and related effort) to changes owing to altered pH. This adaptation comes at the costs of reduced stock size and employment, however. Explicitly visualizing these ecological, economic and social tradeoffs will help in defining realistic future objectives. Our results can be generalized to any stressor (or stressor combination), which is decreasing recruitment success. The main findings of an aggravation of trade-offs will remain valid. This seems to be of special relevance for coastal stocks with limited options for migration to avoid unfavorable future conditions and subsequently for coastal fisheries, which are often small scale local fisheries with limited operational ranges.

Designing Flood Management Systems for Joint Economic and Ecological Robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Grantham, T.; Brown, C. M.; Poff, N. L.

2015-12-01

Freshwater ecosystems across the United States are threatened by hydrologic change caused by water management operations and non-stationary climate trends. Nonstationary hydrology also threatens flood management systems' performance. Ecosystem managers and flood risk managers need tools to design systems that achieve flood risk reduction objectives while sustaining ecosystem functions and services in an uncertain hydrologic future. Robust optimization is used in water resources engineering to guide system design under climate change uncertainty. Using principles introduced by Eco-Engineering Decision Scaling (EEDS), we extend robust optimization techniques to design flood management systems that meet both economic and ecological goals simultaneously across a broad range of future climate conditions. We use three alternative robustness indices to identify flood risk management solutions that preserve critical ecosystem functions in a case study from the Iowa River, where recent severe flooding has tested the limits of the existing flood management system. We seek design modifications to the system that both reduce expected cost of flood damage while increasing ecologically beneficial inundation of riparian floodplains across a wide range of plausible climate futures. The first robustness index measures robustness as the fraction of potential climate scenarios in which both engineering and ecological performance goals are met, implicitly weighting each climate scenario equally. The second index builds on the first by using climate projections to weight each climate scenario, prioritizing acceptable performance in climate scenarios most consistent with climate projections. The last index measures robustness as mean performance across all climate scenarios, but penalizes scenarios with worse performance than average, rewarding consistency. Results stemming from alternate robustness indices reflect implicit assumptions about attitudes toward risk and reveal the tradeoffs between using structural and non-structural flood management strategies to ensure economic and ecological robustness.

The transition to siblinghood: a developmental ecological systems perspective and directions for future research.

PubMed

Volling, Brenda L

2005-12-01

The birth of a baby sibling is a normative life event for many children. Few studies address this important transition period and changes in the older sibling's adjustment and family relationships following the sibling's birth. The present article presents a developmental ecological systems model for studying changes in family life and the older child's adjustment following the birth of a baby sibling. Simultaneous changes occurring in the family and how these changes are interrelated over time to predict patterns of adaptation after the transition to siblinghood are underscored. Recommendations for designing longitudinal studies that take advantage of recent developments in multilevel modeling are also discussed. Copyright 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

The Impact of Global Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution and Sustainable Harvest of Hancornia speciosa Gomes (Apocynaceae) in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabout, João Carlos; Magalhães, Mara Rúbia; de Amorim Gomes, Marcos Aurélio; da Cunha, Hélida Ferreira

2016-04-01

The global Climate change may affect biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems by changing the appropriate locations for the development and establishment of the species. The Hancornia speciosa, popularly called Mangaba, is a plant species that has potential commercial value and contributes to rural economic activities in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution, productivity, and value of production of H. speciosa in Brazil. We used MaxEnt to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species in current and future (2050) climate scenarios. We obtained the productivity and value of production for 74 municipalities in Brazil. Moreover, to explain the variation the productivity and value of production, we constructed 15 models based on four variables: two ecological (ecological niche model and the presence of Unity of conservation) and two socio-economic (gross domestic product and human developed index). The models were selected using Akaike Information Criteria. Our results suggest that municipalities currently harvesting H. speciosa will have lower harvest rates in the future (mainly in northeastern Brazil). The best model to explain the productivity was ecological niche model; thus, municipalities with higher productivity are inserted in regions with higher environmental suitability (indicated by niche model). Thus, in the future, the municipalities harvesting H. speciosa will produce less because there will be less suitable habitat for H. speciosa, which in turn will affect the H. speciosa harvest and the local economy.

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Doyle, Thomas W.; Enwright, Nicholas

2013-01-01

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

Rate of recovery from perturbations as a means to forecast future stability of living systems.

PubMed

Ghadami, Amin; Gourgou, Eleni; Epureanu, Bogdan I

2018-06-18

Anticipating critical transitions in complex ecological and living systems is an important need because it is often difficult to restore a system to its pre-transition state once the transition occurs. Recent studies demonstrate that several indicators based on changes in ecological time series can indicate that the system is approaching an impending transition. An exciting question is, however, whether we can predict more characteristics of the future system stability using measurements taken away from the transition. We address this question by introducing a model-less forecasting method to forecast catastrophic transition of an experimental ecological system. The experiment is based on the dynamics of a yeast population, which is known to exhibit a catastrophic transition as the environment deteriorates. By measuring the system's response to perturbations prior to transition, we forecast the distance to the upcoming transition, the type of the transition (i.e., catastrophic/non-catastrophic) and the future equilibrium points within a range near the transition. Experimental results suggest a strong potential for practical applicability of this approach for ecological systems which are at risk of catastrophic transitions, where there is a pressing need for information about upcoming thresholds.

The structure of parasite communities in fish hosts: ecology meets geography and climate.

PubMed

Poulin, R

2007-09-01

Parasite communities in fish hosts are not uniform in space: their diversity, composition and abundance vary across the geographical range of a host species. Increasingly urgently, we need to understand the geographic component of parasite communities to better predict how they will respond to global climate change. Patterns of geographical variation in the abundance of parasite populations, and in the diversity and composition of parasite communities, are explored here, and the ways in which they may be affected by climate change are discussed. The time has come to transform fish parasite ecology from a mostly descriptive discipline into a predictive science, capable of integrating complex ecological data to generate forecasts about the future state of host-parasite systems.

Land Management in the Anthropocene: Is History Still Relevant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safford, Hugh D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hayward, Gregory D.; Wiens, John A.; Regan, Claudia M.

2008-09-01

Incorporating Historical Ecology and Climate Change Into Land Management; Lansdowne, Virginia, 22-25 April 2008; Ecological restoration, conservation, and land management are often based on comparisons with reference sites or time periods, which are assumed to represent ``natural'' or ``properly functioning'' conditions. Such reference conditions can provide a vision of the conservation or management goal and a means to measure progress toward that vision. Although historical ecology has been used successfully to guide resource management in many parts of the world, the continuing relevance of history is now being questioned. Some scientists doubt that lessons from the past can inform management in what may be a dramatically different future, given profound climate change, accelerated land use, and an onslaught of plant and animal invasions.

Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

2013-01-01

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M

2013-01-01

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

A Climatic Stability Approach to Prioritizing Global Conservation Investments

PubMed Central

Iwamura, Takuya; Wilson, Kerrie A.; Venter, Oscar; Possingham, Hugh P.

2010-01-01

Climate change is impacting species and ecosystems globally. Many existing templates to identify the most important areas to conserve terrestrial biodiversity at the global scale neglect the future impacts of climate change. Unstable climatic conditions are predicted to undermine conservation investments in the future. This paper presents an approach to developing a resource allocation algorithm for conservation investment that incorporates the ecological stability of ecoregions under climate change. We discover that allocating funds in this way changes the optimal schedule of global investments both spatially and temporally. This allocation reduces the biodiversity loss of terrestrial endemic species from protected areas due to climate change by 22% for the period of 2002–2052, when compared to allocations that do not consider climate change. To maximize the resilience of global biodiversity to climate change we recommend that funding be increased in ecoregions located in the tropics and/or mid-elevation habitats, where climatic conditions are predicted to remain relatively stable. Accounting for the ecological stability of ecoregions provides a realistic approach to incorporating climate change into global conservation planning, with potential to save more species from extinction in the long term. PMID:21152095

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for

Land use change around protected areas: management to balance human needs and ecological function.

PubMed

DeFries, Ruth; Hansen, Andrew; Turner, B L; Reid, Robin; Liu, Jianguo

2007-06-01

Protected areas throughout the world are key for conserving biodiversity, and land use is key for providing food, fiber, and other ecosystem services essential for human sustenance. As land use change isolates protected areas from their surrounding landscapes, the challenge is to identify management opportunities that maintain ecological function while minimizing restrictions on human land use. Building on the case studies in this Invited Feature and on ecological principles, we identify opportunities for regional land management that maintain both ecological function in protected areas and human land use options, including preserving crucial habitats and migration corridors, and reducing dependence of local human populations on protected area resources. Identification of appropriate and effective management opportunities depends on clear definitions of: (1) the biodiversity attributes of concern; (2) landscape connections to delineate particular locations with strong ecological interactions between the protected area and its surrounding landscape; and (3) socioeconomic dynamics that determine current and future use of land resources in and around the protected area.

Long-term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s-2070s).

PubMed

Yang, Li; Zhang, Chao; Chen, Minhao; Li, Jingxin; Yang, Lei; Huo, Zhaomin; Ahmad, Shahid; Luan, Xiaofeng

2018-04-01

Long-term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long-term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black-billed capercaillie ( Tetrao urogalloides ) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long-term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64-90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black-billed capercaillie.

Major ecosystems in China: dynamics and challenges for sustainable management.

PubMed

Lü, Yihe; Fu, Bojie; Wei, Wei; Yu, Xiubo; Sun, Ranhao

2011-07-01

Ecosystems, though impacted by global environmental change, can also contribute to the adaptation and mitigation of such large scale changes. Therefore, sustainable ecosystem management is crucial in reaching a sustainable future for the biosphere. Based on the published literature and publicly accessible data, this paper discussed the status and trends of forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems in China that play important roles in the ecological integrity and human welfare of the nation. Ecological degradation has been observed in these ecosystems at various levels and geographic locations. Biophysical (e.g., climate change) and socioeconomic factors (e.g., intensive human use) are the main reasons for ecosystem degradation with the latter factors serving as the dominant driving forces. The three broad categories of ecosystems in China have partially recovered from degradation thanks to large scale ecological restoration projects implemented in the last few decades. China, as the largest and most populated developing nation, still faces huge challenges regarding ecosystem management in a changing and globalizing world. To further improve ecosystem management in China, four recommendations were proposed, including: (1) advance ecosystem management towards an application-oriented, multidisciplinary science; (2) establish a well-functioning national ecological monitoring and data sharing mechanism; (3) develop impact and effectiveness assessment approaches for policies, plans, and ecological restoration projects; and (4) promote legal and institutional innovations to balance the intrinsic needs of ecological and socioeconomic systems. Any change in China's ecosystem management approach towards a more sustainable one will benefit the whole world. Therefore, international collaborations on ecological and environmental issues need to be expanded.

Biosphere Lost: Rethinking the Study of Global Environmental Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, J. A.

2008-12-01

It is fair to say that our planet's most precious resource is land. Land is the source of the vast majority of our food and freshwater, nearly all of our fiber and raw materials, and many other important goods and services. It is also our home. But our relationship to the land has been dramatically changing over the history of our species, mainly through the invention and evolution of agriculture. Today, with the emergence of modern agricultural practices, coupled with the population growth and technological developments of recent centuries, we have transformed a staggering amount of the Earth's surface into highly managed landscapes. Even more startling: the widespread use of irrigation and chemical fertilizers has fundamentally altered the flows of water and nutrients across large regions of the globe. These modifications to the land have driven fundamental changes to the ecology of our planet. Even the effects of future climate change may not have such a major, transformative effect on the environment and on human society as human land use practices. However, despite the importance of land use in the global environment, we still know relatively little about how it affects ecological systems across local, regional and global scales. Here I will discuss new approaches to the study of a human-dominated biosphere. This work requires new, interdisciplinary research to help us understand the changing relationships between human actions and Earth's complex ecological systems. It also requires integrating this latest science into real-world decision- making and public policy, with the ultimate goal of managing our planet's ecological systems sustainably into the future.

Predictive ecology: systems approaches

PubMed Central

Evans, Matthew R.; Norris, Ken J.; Benton, Tim G.

2012-01-01

The world is experiencing significant, largely anthropogenically induced, environmental change. This will impact on the biological world and we need to be able to forecast its effects. In order to produce such forecasts, ecology needs to become more predictive—to develop the ability to understand how ecological systems will behave in future, changed, conditions. Further development of process-based models is required to allow such predictions to be made. Critical to the development of such models will be achieving a balance between the brute-force approach that naively attempts to include everything, and over simplification that throws out important heterogeneities at various levels. Central to this will be the recognition that individuals are the elementary particles of all ecological systems. As such it will be necessary to understand the effect of evolution on ecological systems, particularly when exposed to environmental change. However, insights from evolutionary biology will help the development of models even when data may be sparse. Process-based models are more common, and are used for forecasting, in other disciplines, e.g. climatology and molecular systems biology. Tools and techniques developed in these endeavours can be appropriated into ecological modelling, but it will also be necessary to develop the science of ecoinformatics along with approaches specific to ecological problems. The impetus for this effort should come from the demand coming from society to understand the effects of environmental change on the world and what might be performed to mitigate or adapt to them. PMID:22144379

Transformative environmental governance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chaffin, Brian C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Harm Benson, Melinda; Angeler, David G.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Cosens, Barbara; Kundis Craig, Robin; Ruhl, J.B.; Allen, Craig R.

2016-01-01

Transformative governance is an approach to environmental governance that has the capacity to respond to, manage, and trigger regime shifts in coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) at multiple scales. The goal of transformative governance is to actively shift degraded SESs to alternative, more desirable, or more functional regimes by altering the structures and processes that define the system. Transformative governance is rooted in ecological theories to explain cross-scale dynamics in complex systems, as well as social theories of change, innovation, and technological transformation. Similar to adaptive governance, transformative governance involves a broad set of governance components, but requires additional capacity to foster new social-ecological regimes including increased risk tolerance, significant systemic investment, and restructured economies and power relations. Transformative governance has the potential to actively respond to regime shifts triggered by climate change, and thus future research should focus on identifying system drivers and leading indicators associated with social-ecological thresholds.

Satellite remote sensing, biodiversity research and conservation of the future

PubMed Central

Pettorelli, Nathalie; Safi, Kamran; Turner, Woody

2014-01-01

Assessing and predicting ecosystem responses to global environmental change and its impacts on human well-being are high priority targets for the scientific community. The potential for synergies between remote sensing science and ecology, especially satellite remote sensing and conservation biology, has been highlighted by many in the past. Yet, the two research communities have only recently begun to coordinate their agendas. Such synchronization is the key to improving the potential for satellite data effectively to support future environmental management decision-making processes. With this themed issue, we aim to illustrate how integrating remote sensing into ecological research promotes a better understanding of the mechanisms shaping current changes in biodiversity patterns and improves conservation efforts. Added benefits include fostering innovation, generating new research directions in both disciplines and the development of new satellite remote sensing products. PMID:24733945

Risk Analysis of Near-Coastal Species of the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Study Comparing Risks Associated with Two Future Climate Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...

Resilience of Athabascan subsistence systems to interior Alaska's changing climate

Treesearch

Gary P. Kofinas; F. Stuart Chapin; Shauna BurnSilver; Jennifer I. Schmidt; Nancy L. Fresco; Knut Kielland; Stephanie Martin; Anna Springsteen; T. Scott Rupp

2010-01-01

Subsistence harvesting and wild food production by Athabascan peoples is part of an integrated social-ecological system of interior Alaska. We describe effects of recent trends and future climate change projections on the boreal ecosystem of interior Alaska and relate changes in ecosystem services to Athabascan subsistence. We focus primarily on moose, a keystone...

Unveiling the conservation biogeography of a data-deficient endangered bird species under climate change.

PubMed

Hu, Junhua; Liu, Yang

2014-01-01

It remains a challenge to identify the geographical patterns and underlying environmental associations of species with unique ecological niches and distinct behaviors. This in turn hinders our understanding of the ecology as well as effective conservation management of threatened species. The white-eared night heron (Gorsachius magnificus) is a non-migratory nocturnal bird species that has a patchy distribution in the mountainous forests of East Asia. It is currently categorized as "Endangered" on the IUCN Red List, primarily due to its restricted range and fragmented habitat. To improve our knowledge of the biogeography and conservation of this species, we modeled the geographical pattern of its suitable habitat and evaluated the potential impacts of climate change using ecological niche modeling with a maximum entropy approach implemented in Maxent. Our results indicated that the amount of suitable habitat in all of East Asia was about 130 000 km(2), which can be spatially subdivided into several mountain ranges in southern and southwestern China and northern Vietnam. The extent of suitable habitat range may shrink by more than 35% under a predicted changing climate when assuming the most pessimistic condition of dispersal, while some more suitable habitat would be available if the heron could disperse unrestrainedly. The significant future changes in habitat suitability suggested for Gorsachius magnificus urge caution in any downgrading of Red List status that may be considered. Our results also discern potentially suitable areas for future survey efforts on new populations. Overall, this study demonstrates that ecological niche modeling offers an important tool for evaluating the habitat suitability and potential impacts of climate change on an enigmatic and endangered species based on limited presence data.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model.

PubMed

Fernandes, Jose A; Cheung, William W L; Jennings, Simon; Butenschön, Momme; de Mora, Lee; Frölicher, Thomas L; Barange, Manuel; Grant, Alastair

2013-08-01

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change.

PubMed

Ojea, Elena; Pearlman, Isaac; Gaines, Steven D; Lester, Sarah E

2017-05-01

Climate change is already producing ecological, social, and economic impacts on fisheries, and these effects are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. Fisheries governance and regulations can alter socio-ecological resilience to climate change impacts via harvest control rules and incentives driving fisher behavior, yet there are no syntheses or conceptual frameworks for examining how institutions and their regulatory approaches can alter fisheries resilience to climate change. We identify nine key climate resilience criteria for fisheries socio-ecological systems (SES), defining resilience as the ability of the coupled system of interacting social and ecological components (i.e., the SES) to absorb change while avoiding transformation into a different undesirable state. We then evaluate the capacity of four fisheries regulatory systems that vary in their degree of property rights, including open access, limited entry, and two types of rights-based management, to increase or inhibit resilience. Our exploratory assessment of evidence in the literature suggests that these regulatory regimes vary widely in their ability to promote resilient fisheries, with rights-based approaches appearing to offer more resilience benefits in many cases, but detailed characteristics of the regulatory instruments are fundamental.

Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River.

PubMed

Zhang, Jifei; Sun, Jian; Ma, Baibing; Du, Wenpeng

2017-01-01

The upper reaches of the Minjiang River (URMR), located on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in southwestern China, are an important component of the ecological barrier of the Upper Yangtze River Basin. Climate change and human activities have increased the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of the region, which may pose a threat to the ecological security of the Yangtze River Basin and have negative impacts on local social and economic development. In this study, we analyzed land use and cover change (LUCC) of the URMR between 2000 and 2010, and found that the total rate of LUCC was less than 0.50% during this period. In addition, net primary production (NPP) was employed to describe the changes in ecosystem sensitivity and vulnerability, and the results demonstrated that slightly and moderately sensitive and vulnerable zones occupied the largest area, distributed mainly in forest, shrub, and grassland ecosystems. However, compared with the period from 2000 to 2005, the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability showed a worsening trend in the period 2005-2010. Exploring the relationship between vulnerability/sensitivity and environmental factors, we found that sensitivity and vulnerability were positively correlated with precipitation (>700 mm) and aridity index (>36 mm/°C). The results highlight that the future ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of URMR should be further investigated, and that the LUCC induced by human activities and climate change have caused alteration of in ecosystem vulnerability.

Adaptive responses reveal contemporary and future ecotypes in a desert shrub

Treesearch

Bryce A. Richardson; Stanley G. Kitchen; Rosemary L. Pendleton; Burton K. Pendleton; Matthew J. Germino; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Susan E. Meyer

2014-01-01

Interacting threats to ecosystem function, including climate change, wildfire, and invasive species necessitate native plant restoration in desert ecosystems. However, native plant restoration efforts often remain unguided by ecological genetic information. Given that many ecosystems are in flux from climate change, restoration plans need to account for both...

[Ecological risk assessment of land use based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA): a case study of Haitan Island, Fujian Province].

PubMed

Wu, Jian; Chen, Peng; Wen, Chao-Xiang; Fu, Shi-Feng; Chen, Qing-Hui

2014-07-01

As a novel environment management tool, ecological risk assessment has provided a new perspective for the quantitative evaluation of ecological effects of land-use change. In this study, Haitan Island in Fujian Province was taken as a case. Based on the Landsat TM obtained in 1990, SPOT5 RS images obtained in 2010, general layout planning map of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone in 2030, as well as the field investigation data, we established an ecological risk index to measure ecological endpoints. By using spatial autocorrelation and semivariance analysis of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), the ecological risk of Haitan Island under different land-use situations was assessed, including the past (1990), present (2010) and future (2030), and the potential risk and its changing trend were analyzed. The results revealed that the ecological risk index showed obvious scale effect, with strong positive correlation within 3000 meters. High-high (HH) and low-low (LL) aggregations were predominant types in spatial distribution of ecological risk index. The ecological risk index showed significant isotropic characteristics, and its spatial distribution was consistent with Anselin Local Moran I (LISA) distribution during the same period. Dramatic spatial distribution change of each ecological risk area was found among 1990, 2010 and 2030, and the fluctuation trend and amplitude of different ecological risk areas were diverse. The low ecological risk area showed a rise-to-fall trend while the medium and high ecological risk areas showed a fall-to-rise trend. In the planning period, due to intensive anthropogenic disturbance, the high ecological risk area spread throughout the whole region. To reduce the ecological risk in land-use and maintain the regional ecological security, the following ecological risk control strategies could be adopted, i.e., optimizing the spatial pattern of land resources, protecting the key ecoregions and controlling the scale of construction land use.

Contributing factors for drought in United States forest ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty

Treesearch

Charlie Luce; James M. Vose; Neil Pederson; John Campbell; Connie Millar; Patrick Kormos; Ross Woods

2016-01-01

Observations of increasing global forest die-off related to drought are leading to more questions about potential increases in drought occurrence, severity, and ecological consequence in the future. Dry soils and warm temperatures interact to affect trees during drought; so understanding shifting risks requires some understanding of changes in both temperature...

North American Forest Futures 2018-2090: Scenarios for Building a More Resilient Forest Sector

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Jonathan Peck; Robert Olson; Melissa Barros; Richard A. Birdsey; Daniel R. Williams; Juan Carlos Leyva Reyes; Francisco José Zamudio

2018-01-01

North American forests and forest management institutions are experiencing a wide range of significant ecological disturbances and socioeconomic changes, which point to the need for enhanced resilience. A critical capacity for resilience in institutions is strategic foresight. This article reports on a project of the North American Forest Commission to use Futures...

Future forests of the northern United States

Treesearch

Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser

2016-01-01

The U.S. North - the 20 states bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota - have a greater forest cover (42 percent of land area) and population density (194 people per square mile) than other large regions of the nation. Ecological, social, and economic changes anticipated over the next 50 years will profoundly affect future forest management needs and...

Ecology of Buzzards Bay: An Estuarine Profile

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-09-01

bucera Polychaeta Ascophyllum nodosum Phaeophyta Tellina tenera Bivalvia Fucus vesiculosus Phaeophyta Ninoe nigripes Polychaeata Chondrus crispus...Because the current and future environmental health of these types of embayments can be directly influenced by activities within contributing watersheds...restricted coastal embayments, while natural and anthropogenic influences responsible for present and future changes to bay systems are the focus of Chap

Chemical ecology of animal and human pathogen vectors in a changing global climate.

PubMed

Pickett, John A; Birkett, Michael A; Dewhirst, Sarah Y; Logan, James G; Omolo, Maurice O; Torto, Baldwyn; Pelletier, Julien; Syed, Zainulabeuddin; Leal, Walter S

2010-01-01

Infectious diseases affecting livestock and human health that involve vector-borne pathogens are a global problem, unrestricted by borders or boundaries, which may be exacerbated by changing global climate. Thus, the availability of effective tools for control of pathogen vectors is of the utmost importance. The aim of this article is to review, selectively, current knowledge of the chemical ecology of pathogen vectors that affect livestock and human health in the developed and developing world, based on key note lectures presented in a symposium on "The Chemical Ecology of Disease Vectors" at the 25th Annual ISCE meeting in Neuchatel, Switzerland. The focus is on the deployment of semiochemicals for monitoring and control strategies, and discusses briefly future directions that such research should proceed along, bearing in mind the environmental challenges associated with climate change that we will face during the 21st century.

Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Le Maho, Yvon; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano

2018-03-01

Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species' niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

Ecological bridges and barriers in pelagic ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briscoe, Dana K.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Carlisle, Aaron; Scales, Kylie; Eveson, J. Paige; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Druon, Jean Noel; Fromentin, Jean-Marc

2017-06-01

Many highly mobile species are known to use persistent pathways or corridors to move between habitat patches in which conditions are favorable for particular activities, such as breeding or foraging. In the marine realm, environmental variability can lead to the development of temporary periods of anomalous oceanographic conditions that can connect individuals to areas of habitat outside a population's usual range, or alternatively, restrict individuals from areas usually within their range, thus acting as ecological bridges or ecological barriers. These temporary features can result in novel or irregular trophic interactions and changes in population spatial dynamics, and, therefore, may have significant implications for management of marine ecosystems. Here, we provide evidence of ecological bridges and barriers in different ocean regions, drawing upon five case studies in which particular oceanographic conditions have facilitated or restricted the movements of individuals from highly migratory species. We discuss the potential population-level significance of ecological bridges and barriers, with respect to the life history characteristics of different species, and inter- and intra-population variability in habitat use. Finally, we summarize the persistence of bridge dynamics with time, our ability to monitor bridges and barriers in a changing climate, and implications for forecasting future climate-mediated ecosystem change.

The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

PubMed Central

Petchey, Owen L; Pontarp, Mikael; Massie, Thomas M; Kéfi, Sonia; Ozgul, Arpat; Weilenmann, Maja; Palamara, Gian Marco; Altermatt, Florian; Matthews, Blake; Levine, Jonathan M; Childs, Dylan Z; McGill, Brian J; Schaepman, Michael E; Schmid, Bernhard; Spaak, Piet; Beckerman, Andrew P; Pennekamp, Frank; Pearse, Ian S; Vasseur, David

2015-01-01

Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development. PMID:25960188

Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird.

PubMed

Ruegg, Kristen; Bay, Rachael A; Anderson, Eric C; Saracco, James F; Harrigan, Ryan J; Whitfield, Mary; Paxton, Eben H; Smith, Thomas B

2018-05-09

Few regions have been more severely impacted by climate change in the USA than the Desert Southwest. Here, we use ecological genomics to assess the potential for adaptation to rising global temperatures in a widespread songbird, the willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), and find the endangered desert southwestern subspecies (E. t. extimus) most vulnerable to future climate change. Highly significant correlations between present abundance and estimates of genomic vulnerability - the mismatch between current and predicted future genotype-environment relationships - indicate small, fragmented populations of the southwestern willow flycatcher will have to adapt most to keep pace with climate change. Links between climate-associated genotypes and genes important to thermal tolerance in birds provide a potential mechanism for adaptation to temperature extremes. Our results demonstrate that the incorporation of genotype-environment relationships into landscape-scale models of climate vulnerability can facilitate more precise predictions of climate impacts and help guide conservation in threatened and endangered groups. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk

PubMed Central

Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Wilson, Robert J.

2011-01-01

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity. PMID:21746924

Coastal Wetland Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change: the Role of Macroclimatic Drivers along the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osland, M. J.; Enwright, N.; Day, R. H.; Gabler, C. A.; Stagg, C. L.; From, A. S.

2014-12-01

Across the globe, macroclimatic drivers greatly influence coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, changing macroclimatic conditions are rarely incorporated into coastal wetland vulnerability assessments. Here, we quantify the influence of macroclimatic drivers upon coastal wetland ecosystems along the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast. From a global perspective, the NGOM coast provides several excellent opportunities to examine the effects of climate change upon coastal wetlands. The abundant coastal wetland ecosystems in the region span two major climatic gradients: (1) a winter temperature gradient that crosses temperate to tropical climatic zones; and (2) a precipitation gradient that crosses humid to semi-arid zones. We present analyses where we used geospatial data (historical climate, hydrology, and coastal wetland coverage) and field data (soil, elevation, and plant community composition and structure) to quantify climate-mediated ecological transitions. We identified winter climate and precipitation-based thresholds that separate mangrove forests from salt marshes and vegetated wetlands from unvegetated wetlands, respectively. We used simple distribution and abundance models to evaluate the potential ecological effects of alternative future climate change scenarios. Our results illustrate and quantify the importance of macroclimatic drivers and indicate that climate change could result in landscape-scale changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. These macroclimate-mediated ecological changes could affect the supply of some ecosystem goods and services as well as the resilience of these ecosystems to stressors, including accelerated sea level rise. Collectively, our findings highlight the importance of incorporating macroclimatic drivers within future-focused coastal wetland vulnerability assessments.

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Wilson, Robert J

2011-07-26

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.

Systematic Conservation Planning in the Face of Climate Change: Bet-Hedging on the Columbia Plateau

PubMed Central

Schloss, Carrie A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Larson, Eric R.; Papendick, Hilary L.; Case, Michael J.; Evans, Daniel M.; DeLap, Jack H.; Langdon, Jesse G. R.; Hall, Sonia A.; McRae, Brad H.

2011-01-01

Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts. PMID:22174897

Land management in the Anthropocene: is history still relevant?: Incorporating historical ecology and climate change into land management; Lansdowne, Virginia, 22–25 April 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safford, Hugh D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hayward, Gregory D.; Wiens, John A.; Regan, Claudia M.

2008-01-01

Ecological restoration, conservation, and land management are often based on comparisons with reference sites or time periods, which are assumed to represent “natural” or “properly functioning” conditions. Such reference conditions can provide a vision of the conservation or management goal and a means to measure progress toward that vision. Although historical ecology has been used successfully to guide resource management in many parts of the world, the continuing relevance of history is now being questioned. Some scientists doubt that lessons from the past can inform management in what may be a dramatically different future, given profound climate change, accelerated land use, and an onslaught of plant and animal invasions.

Seahorses under a changing ocean: the impact of warming and acidification on the behaviour and physiology of a poor-swimming bony-armoured fish.

PubMed

Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Santos, Catarina; Aurélio, Maria L; Pimentel, Marta; Pegado, Maria Rita; Paula, José Ricardo; Calado, Ricardo; Repolho, Tiago; Rosa, Rui

2015-01-01

Seahorses are currently facing great challenges in the wild, including habitat degradation and overexploitation, and how they will endure additional stress from rapid climate change has yet to be determined. Unlike most fishes, the poor swimming skills of seahorses, along with the ecological and biological constraints of their unique lifestyle, place great weight on their physiological ability to cope with climate changes. In the present study, we evaluate the effects of ocean warming (+4°C) and acidification (ΔpH = -0.5 units) on the physiological and behavioural ecology of adult temperate seahorses, Hippocampus guttulatus. Adult seahorses were found to be relatively well prepared to face future changes in ocean temperature, but not the combined effect of warming and acidification. Seahorse metabolism increased normally with warming, and behavioural and feeding responses were not significantly affected. However, during hypercapnia the seahorses exhibited signs of lethargy (i.e. reduced activity levels) combined with a reduction of feeding and ventilation rates. Nonetheless, metabolic rates were not significantly affected. Future ocean changes, particularly ocean acidification, may further threaten seahorse conservation, turning these charismatic fishes into important flagship species for global climate change issues.

Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: Introduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

2015-01-01

Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

Predicting Ecological Responses of the Florida Everglades to Possible Future Climate Scenarios: Introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E.; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

2015-04-01

Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

Integrating climate change considerations into forest management tools and training

Treesearch

Linda M. Nagel; Christopher W. Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak

2010-01-01

Silviculturists are currently facing the challenge of developing management strategies that meet broad ecological and social considerations in spite of a high degree of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. Forest managers need state-of-the-art knowledge about climate change and potential impacts to facilitate development of silvicultural objectives and...

Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments

Treesearch

Yohay Carmel; Curtis H. Flather

2006-01-01

Modeling the future distribution of keystone species has proved to be an important approach to assessing the potential ecological consequences of climate change (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996; Hansen et al. 2001). Predictions of range shifts are typically based on empirical models derived from simple correlative relationships between climatic characteristics of occupied and...

[Applied ecology: retrospect and prospect].

PubMed

He, Xingyuan; Zeng, Dehui

2004-10-01

Applied ecology is evolved into a principal part of modern ecology that rapidly develops. The major stimulus for the development of applied ecology roots in seeking the solutions for the problems of human populations, resources and environments. Through four decades, the science of applied ecology has been becoming a huge group of disciplines. The future for the applied ecology should concern more with human-influenced and managed ecosystems, and acknowledge humans as the components of ecosystems. Nowadays and in future, the top-priorities in applied ecology should include following fields: sustainable ecosystems and biosphere, ecosystem services and ecological design, ecological assessment of genetically modified organisms, ecology of biological invasions, epidemical ecology, ecological forecasting, ecological process and its control. The authors believe that the comprehensive and active research hotspots coupled some new traits would occur around these fields in foreseeable future.

Impacts of Potential Changes in Land Use, Climate, and Water Use on Water Availability, Coastal Carolinas Region, Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurley, L. N.; Garcia, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sustainable growth in coastal areas with rapidly increasing populations, such as the coastal regions of North and South Carolina, relies on an understanding of the current state of coastal natural resources coupled with the ability to assess future impacts of changing coastal communities and resources. Changes in climate, water use, population, and land use (e.g. urbanization) will place additional stress on societal and ecological systems that are already competing for water resources. The potential effects of these stressors on water availability are not fully known. To meet societal and ecological needs, water resources management and planning efforts require estimates of likely impacts of population growth, land-use, and climate. Two Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) hydrologic models were developed to help address the challenges that water managers face in the Carolinas: the (1) Cape Fear and (2) Pee Dee drainage basins. SWAT is a basin-scale, process-based watershed model with the capability of simulating water-management scenarios. Model areas were divided into two square mile sub-basins to evaluate ecological response at headwater streams. The sub-basins were subsequently divided into smaller, discrete hydrologic response units based on land use, slope, and soil type. Monthly and annual water-use data were used for 2000 to 2014 and included estimates of municipal, industrial, agricultural, and commercial water use. Models were calibrated for 2000 to 2014 and potential future streamflows were estimated through 2060 based on a suite of scenarios that integrated land use change projections, climate projections and water-use forecasts. The approaches and new techniques developed as part of this research could be applied to other coastal areas that face similar current and future water availability demands.

Biodiversity evaluation in tropical agricultural systems - How will rubber cultivation and land use change effect species diversity in SW China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotter, M.; Grenz, J.; Sauerborn, J.

2012-04-01

The Greater Mekong Subregion is a known hotspot of biodiversity, which faces drastic changes due to human impact particularly with regard to infrastructure and economy. Within the framework of the Sino-German research project "Living Landscapes China" (LILAC), we have developed a biodiversity evaluation tool based on the combination of approaches from landscape ecology with detailed empirical data on species diversity and habitat characteristics of tropical plant and arthropod communities in a Geographical Information System. We use field ecological data to assess different spatial and qualitative aspects of the diversity and spatial distribution of species throughout the research area, a watershed in south-western Yunnan province, PR China. In addition, scenarios on the impact of land use change have been analyzed and compared in order to highlight the implications these possible future scenarios would have on species diversity within the research area. The aim of the presented tool is to provide scientists and policy makers who have to evaluate the consequences of scenarios of future land use with information on the current and likely future state of biodiversity in their research area or administrative region. This will enable them to assess the likely impacts of land use changes on structural and ecological diversity and allow for informed land use planning. The methodology developed for this tool can also be applied outside of the Greater Mekong Subregion, as the model structure allows for an easy adaption to other research areas and challenges, be it oil palm production in Southeast Asia or small scale farming in central Africa or the Amazon basin.

Variable-source flood pulsing in a semi-arid transboundary watershed: the Chobe River, Botswana and Namibia.

PubMed

Pricope, Narcisa G

2013-02-01

The Chobe River, characterized by an unusual flood pulsing regime and shared between Botswana and Namibia, lies at the heart of the world's largest transfrontier conservation area (the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area). Significant ecological changes and vegetation conversions are occurring along its floodplains. Various scenarios for agricultural and urban water use are currently being proposed by the government of Botswana. However, the understanding of the river's annual flow regime and timing of the relative contributions of water from three different sources is relatively poor. In light of past and future climate change and variability, this means that allocating water between ecological flows and economic and domestic uses will become increasingly challenging. We reconstruct the inundation history in this basin to help ease this challenge. This paper presents a spatiotemporal approach to estimate the contribution of water from various sources and the magnitude of changes in the flooding extent in the basin between 1985 and 2010. We used time series analysis of bimonthly NOAA AVHRR and NASA MODIS data and climatologic and hydrologic records to determine the flooding timing and extent. The results indicate that between 12 and 62 % of the basin is flooded on an annual basis and that the spatial extent of the flooding varies throughout the year as a function of the timing of peak discharge in two larger basins. A 30-year trend analysis indicates a consistent decline in the average monthly flooded area in the basin. The results may prove useful in future water utilization feasibility studies, in determining measures for protecting ecological flows and levels, and in ecosystem dynamics studies in the context of current and future climate change and variability.

Historical ecology of the northern Adriatic Sea: Down-core changes in molluscan death assemblages as indicators of ecological shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallmetzer, Ivo; Haselmair, Alexandra; Tomasovych, Adam; Stachowitsch, Michael; Zuschin, Martin

2014-05-01

Modern marine ecological studies investigating ecosystem responses to environmental changes are normally restricted to annual or decadal time scales. The historical ecology approach used in the present study aims to shed light on the younger ecological history of the northern Adriatic Sea, targeting the period of the last 500 to 2000 years that have experienced major anthropogenic ecosystem impacts. Our investigations focus on down-core changes in death assemblages of benthic hard-part producers (molluscs, foraminifera, ostracods), where the degree of variation between different community structures serves as a proxy for ecological shifts. The northern Adriatic Sea, with its densely populated shoreline, lists among the most degraded marine ecosystems worldwide and is therefore particularly suited to study ecosystem modification under human pressure. Another advantage of this study area is the availability of historical data from marine surveys dating back to the 1930s.We incorporate these data in our analyses of more recent ecological shifts. More than 50 cores of 1.5 m length and diameters of 90 and 160 mm were taken at seven sampling stations throughout the northern Adriatic Sea, covering different sediment types, nutrient conditions and degrees of exposure to bottom trawling. The cores were sliced into smaller subsamples and analysed for species composition, abundance, taxonomic similarity, evidence for ecological interactions (i.e., frequencies of drilling predation) and taphonomic condition of shells. First results concerning down-core changes in species composition and abundance point to significant differences within single cores as well as between sites. The radiometric dating of the sediments revealed substantial differences in sedimentation rates and in the ratio between sediment depth and age. This information, together with carbon-calibrated amino acid- racemisation (AAR) of shells from selected species, will help to specify the timing of major ecological changes. Our approach should also deliver an image of "pristine" benthic communities that can serve as a reference for future conservation and management efforts in the northern Adriatic Sea.

Understanding the cryptic nature of Lassa fever in West Africa.

PubMed

Gibb, Rory; Moses, Lina M; Redding, David W; Jones, Kate E

2017-09-01

Lassa fever (LF) is increasingly recognized by global health institutions as an important rodent-borne disease with severe impacts on some of West Africa's poorest communities. However, our knowledge of LF ecology, epidemiology and distribution is limited, which presents barriers to both short-term disease forecasting and prediction of long-term impacts of environmental change on Lassa virus (LASV) zoonotic transmission dynamics. Here, we synthesize current knowledge to show that extrapolations from past research have produced an incomplete picture of the incidence and distribution of LF, with negative consequences for policy planning, medical treatment and management interventions. Although the recent increase in LF case reports is likely due to improved surveillance, recent studies suggest that future socio-ecological changes in West Africa may drive increases in LF burden. Future research should focus on the geographical distribution and disease burden of LF, in order to improve its integration into public policy and disease control strategies.

Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2016-12-01

Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change

PubMed Central

Davis, Jenny; Pavlova, Alexandra; Thompson, Ross; Sunnucks, Paul

2013-01-01

Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges based on our review of the attributes of aquatic habitats and freshwater taxa (fishes and aquatic invertebrates) in arid Australia. We also identify methods of recognizing likely future refugia and approaches to assessing the vulnerability of arid-adapted freshwater biota to a warming and drying climate. Evolutionary refugia in arid areas are characterized as permanent, groundwater-dependent habitats (subterranean aquifers and springs) supporting vicariant relicts and short-range endemics. Ecological refuges can vary across space and time, depending on the dispersal abilities of aquatic taxa and the geographical proximity and hydrological connectivity of aquatic habitats. The most important are the perennial waterbodies (both groundwater and surface water fed) that support obligate aquatic organisms. These species will persist where suitable habitats are available and dispersal pathways are maintained. For very mobile species (invertebrates with an aerial dispersal phase) evolutionary refugia may also act as ecological refuges. Evolutionary refugia are likely future refugia because their water source (groundwater) is decoupled from local precipitation. However, their biota is extremely vulnerable to changes in local conditions because population extinction risks cannot be abated by the dispersal of individuals from other sites. Conservation planning must incorporate a high level of protection for aquifers that support refugial sites. Ecological refuges are vulnerable to changes in regional climate because they have little thermal or hydrological buffering. Accordingly, conservation planning must focus on maintaining meta-population processes, especially through dynamic connectivity between aquatic habitats at a landscape scale. PMID:23526791

Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change.

PubMed

Davis, Jenny; Pavlova, Alexandra; Thompson, Ross; Sunnucks, Paul

2013-07-01

Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refugees based on our review of the attributes of aquatic habitats and freshwater taxa (fishes and aquatic invertebrates) in arid Australia. We also identify methods of recognizing likely future refugia and approaches to assessing the vulnerability of arid-adapted freshwater biota to a warming and drying climate. Evolutionary refugia in arid areas are characterized as permanent, groundwater-dependent habitats (subterranean aquifers and springs) supporting vicariant relicts and short-range endemics. Ecological refugees can vary across space and time, depending on the dispersal abilities of aquatic taxa and the geographical proximity and hydrological connectivity of aquatic habitats. The most important are the perennial waterbodies (both groundwater and surface water fed) that support obligate aquatic organisms. These species will persist where suitable habitats are available and dispersal pathways are maintained. For very mobile species (invertebrates with an aerial dispersal phase) evolutionary refugia may also act as ecological refugees. Evolutionary refugia are likely future refugia because their water source (groundwater) is decoupled from local precipitation. However, their biota is extremely vulnerable to changes in local conditions because population extinction risks cannot be abated by the dispersal of individuals from other sites. Conservation planning must incorporate a high level of protection for aquifers that support refugial sites. Ecological refuges are vulnerable to changes in regional climate because they have little thermal or hydrological buffering. Accordingly, conservation planning must focus on maintaining meta-population processes, especially through dynamic connectivity between aquatic habitats at a landscape scale. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Ecological science and sustainability for the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmer, Margaret A.; Bernhardt, Emily S.; Chornesky, Elizabeth A.; Collins, Scott L.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Duke, Clifford S.; Gold, Barry; Jacobson, Robert B.; Kingsland, Sharon E.; Kranz, Rhonda H.; Mappin, Michael J.; Martinez, M. Luisa; Micheli, Fiorenza; Morse, Jennifer L.; Pace, Michael L.; Pascual, Mercedes; Palumbi, Stephen S.; Reichman, O. J.; Townsend, Alan R.; Turner, Monica G.

2005-01-01

Ecological science has contributed greatly to our understanding of the natural world and the impact of humans on that world. Now, we need to refocus the discipline towards research that ensures a future in which natural systems and the humans they include coexist on a more sustainable planet. Acknowledging that managed ecosystems and intensive exploitation of resources define our future, ecologists must play a greatly expanded role in communicating their research and influencing policy and decisions that affect the environment. To accomplish this, they will have to forge partnerships at scales and in forms they have not traditionally used. These alliances must act within three visionary areas: enhancing the extent to which decisions are ecologically informed; advancing innovative ecological research directed at the sustainability of the planet; and stimulating cultural changes within the science itself, thereby building a forward-looking and international ecology. We recommend: (1) a research initiative to enhance research project development, facilitate large-scale experiments and data collection, and link science to solutions; (2) procedures that will improve interactions among researchers, managers, and decision makers; and (3) efforts to build public understanding of the links between ecosystem services and humans.

[Ecology and health in Chile: present and future development].

PubMed

Oyarzún, M

1997-09-01

In response to the progressive environmental deterioration, the Ecological Society of America has made a proposal, called "Sustainable Biosphere Initiative", to do research, teaching and decision making processes on biodiversity, global change and the effects of human activities on environment. The goal of appropriate environmental protection and welfare for mankind includes health and quality of life. Presently, Chile faces a number of environmental problems such as pollution, excessive urban growth, loss of agricultural areas, disposal of solid waste and species extinction. The lack of education and information in Chile, on these problems, is worrisome. The role of universities to overcome this deficit should be crucial in the future sustainable development of Chile.

Assessing the ecological vulnerability of the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

PubMed Central

Sun, Jian; Ma, Baibing; Du, Wenpeng

2017-01-01

The upper reaches of the Minjiang River (URMR), located on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in southwestern China, are an important component of the ecological barrier of the Upper Yangtze River Basin. Climate change and human activities have increased the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of the region, which may pose a threat to the ecological security of the Yangtze River Basin and have negative impacts on local social and economic development. In this study, we analyzed land use and cover change (LUCC) of the URMR between 2000 and 2010, and found that the total rate of LUCC was less than 0.50% during this period. In addition, net primary production (NPP) was employed to describe the changes in ecosystem sensitivity and vulnerability, and the results demonstrated that slightly and moderately sensitive and vulnerable zones occupied the largest area, distributed mainly in forest, shrub, and grassland ecosystems. However, compared with the period from 2000 to 2005, the ecological sensitivity and vulnerability showed a worsening trend in the period 2005–2010. Exploring the relationship between vulnerability/sensitivity and environmental factors, we found that sensitivity and vulnerability were positively correlated with precipitation (>700 mm) and aridity index (>36 mm/°C). The results highlight that the future ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of URMR should be further investigated, and that the LUCC induced by human activities and climate change have caused alteration of in ecosystem vulnerability. PMID:28753635

Streamflow responses to past and projected future changes in climate at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

Treesearch

John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Katharine Hayhoe

2011-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter streamflow regimes, having ecological, economic, and societal implications. In the northeastern United States, it is unclear how climate change may affect surface water supply, which is of critical importance in this densely populated region. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the timing...

An Improved Approach for Forecasting Ecological Impacts from Future Drilling in Unconventional Shale Oil and Gas Plays.

PubMed

Wolaver, Brad D; Pierre, Jon Paul; Ikonnikova, Svetlana A; Andrews, John R; McDaid, Guinevere; Ryberg, Wade A; Hibbitts, Toby J; Duran, Charles M; Labay, Benjamin J; LaDuc, Travis J

2018-04-13

Directional well drilling and hydraulic fracturing has enabled energy production from previously inaccessible resources, but caused vegetation conversion and landscape fragmentation, often in relatively undisturbed habitats. We improve forecasts of future ecological impacts from unconventional oil and gas play developments using a new, more spatially-explicit approach. We applied an energy production outlook model, which used geologic and economic data from thousands of wells and three oil price scenarios, to map future drilling patterns and evaluate the spatial distribution of vegetation conversion and habitat impacts. We forecast where future well pad construction may be most intense, illustrating with an example from the Eagle Ford Shale Play of Texas. We also illustrate the ecological utility of this approach using the Spot-tailed Earless Lizard (Holbrookia lacerata) as the focal species, which historically occupied much of the Eagle Ford and awaits a federal decision for possible Endangered Species Act protection. We found that ~17,000-45,500 wells would be drilled 2017‒2045 resulting in vegetation conversion of ~26,485-70,623 ha (0.73-1.96% of pre-development vegetation), depending on price scenario ($40-$80/barrel). Grasslands and row crop habitats were most affected (2.30 and 2.82% areal vegetation reduction). Our approach improves forecasts of where and to what extent future energy development in unconventional plays may change land-use and ecosystem services, enabling natural resource managers to anticipate and direct on-the-ground conservation actions to places where they will most effectively mitigate ecological impacts of well pads and associated infrastructure.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Brown, Christopher J; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia L; Chauvenet, Alienor; Champion, Curtis; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Dell, Anthony I; Donelson, Jennifer M; Evengård, Birgitta; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Jarzyna, Marta A; Lee, Emma; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Mitchell, Nicola; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Possingham, Hugh; Pulsifer, Peter; Reynolds, Mark; Scheffers, Brett R; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Twiname, Samantha; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wapstra, Erik; Wernberg, Thomas; Pecl, Gretta T

2018-02-01

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) as a bridge between ecology and evolutionary genomics.

PubMed

Bybee, Seth; Córdoba-Aguilar, Alex; Duryea, M Catherine; Futahashi, Ryo; Hansson, Bengt; Lorenzo-Carballa, M Olalla; Schilder, Ruud; Stoks, Robby; Suvorov, Anton; Svensson, Erik I; Swaegers, Janne; Takahashi, Yuma; Watts, Phillip C; Wellenreuther, Maren

2016-01-01

Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) present an unparalleled insect model to integrate evolutionary genomics with ecology for the study of insect evolution. Key features of Odonata include their ancient phylogenetic position, extensive phenotypic and ecological diversity, several unique evolutionary innovations, ease of study in the wild and usefulness as bioindicators for freshwater ecosystems worldwide. In this review, we synthesize studies on the evolution, ecology and physiology of odonates, highlighting those areas where the integration of ecology with genomics would yield significant insights into the evolutionary processes that would not be gained easily by working on other animal groups. We argue that the unique features of this group combined with their complex life cycle, flight behaviour, diversity in ecological niches and their sensitivity to anthropogenic change make odonates a promising and fruitful taxon for genomics focused research. Future areas of research that deserve increased attention are also briefly outlined.

Freshwater biodiversity and aquatic insect diversification.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Klaas-Douwe B; Monaghan, Michael T; Pauls, Steffen U

2014-01-01

Inland waters cover less than 1% of Earth's surface but harbor more than 6% of all insect species: Nearly 100,000 species from 12 orders spend one or more life stages in freshwater. Little is known about how this remarkable diversity arose, although allopatric speciation and ecological adaptation are thought to be primary mechanisms. Freshwater habitats are highly susceptible to environmental change and exhibit marked ecological gradients. Standing waters appear to harbor more dispersive species than running waters, but there is little understanding of how this fundamental ecological difference has affected diversification. In contrast to the lack of evolutionary studies, the ecology and habitat preferences of aquatic insects have been intensively studied, in part because of their widespread use as bioindicators. The combination of phylogenetics with the extensive ecological data provides a promising avenue for future research, making aquatic insects highly suitable models for the study of ecological diversification.

Coralline algae (Rhodophyta) in a changing world: integrating ecological, physiological, and geochemical responses to global change.

PubMed

McCoy, Sophie J; Kamenos, Nicholas A

2015-02-01

Coralline algae are globally distributed benthic primary producers that secrete calcium carbonate skeletons. In the context of ocean acidification, they have received much recent attention due to the potential vulnerability of their high-Mg calcite skeletons and their many important ecological roles. Herein, we summarize what is known about coralline algal ecology and physiology, providing context to understand their responses to global climate change. We review the impacts of these changes, including ocean acidification, rising temperatures, and pollution, on coralline algal growth and calcification. We also assess the ongoing use of coralline algae as marine climate proxies via calibration of skeletal morphology and geochemistry to environmental conditions. Finally, we indicate critical gaps in our understanding of coralline algal calcification and physiology and highlight key areas for future research. These include analytical areas that recently have become more accessible, such as resolving phylogenetic relationships at all taxonomic ranks, elucidating the genes regulating algal photosynthesis and calcification, and calibrating skeletal geochemical metrics, as well as research directions that are broadly applicable to global change ecology, such as the importance of community-scale and long-term experiments in stress response. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Phycology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Phycological Society of America.

Ecological niche modeling of rabies in the changing Arctic of Alaska.

PubMed

Huettmann, Falk; Magnuson, Emily Elizabeth; Hueffer, Karsten

2017-03-20

Rabies is a disease of global significance including in the circumpolar Arctic. In Alaska enzootic rabies persist in northern and western coastal areas. Only sporadic cases have occurred in areas outside of the regions considered enzootic for the virus, such as the interior of the state and urbanized regions. Here we examine the distribution of diagnosed rabies cases in Alaska, explicit in space and time. We use a geographic information system (GIS), 20 environmental data layers and provide a quantitative non-parsimonious estimate of the predicted ecological niche, based on data mining, machine learning and open access data. We identify ecological correlates and possible drivers that determine the ecological niche of rabies virus in Alaska. More specifically, our models show that rabies cases are closely associated with human infrastructure, and reveal an ecological niche in remote northern wilderness areas. Furthermore a model utilizing climate modeling suggests a reduction of the current ecological niche for detection of rabies virus in Alaska, a state that is disproportionately affected by a changing climate. Our results may help to better inform public health decisions in the future and guide further studies on individual drivers of rabies distribution in the Arctic.

Trophic Ecology of Benthic Marine Invertebrates with Bi-Phasic Life Cycles: What Are We Still Missing?

PubMed

Calado, Ricardo; Leal, Miguel Costa

2015-01-01

The study of trophic ecology of benthic marine invertebrates with bi-phasic life cycles is critical to understand the mechanisms shaping population dynamics. Moreover, global climate change is impacting the marine environment at an unprecedented level, which promotes trophic mismatches that affect the phenology of these species and, ultimately, act as drivers of ecological and evolutionary change. Assessing the trophic ecology of marine invertebrates is critical to understanding maternal investment, larval survival to metamorphosis, post-metamorphic performance, resource partitioning and trophic cascades. Tools already available to assess the trophic ecology of marine invertebrates, including visual observation, gut content analysis, food concentration, trophic markers, stable isotopes and molecular genetics, are reviewed and their main advantages and disadvantages for qualitative and quantitative approaches are discussed. The challenges to perform the partitioning of ingestion, digestion and assimilation are discussed together with different approaches to address each of these processes for short- and long-term fingerprinting. Future directions for research on the trophic ecology of benthic marine invertebrates with bi-phasic life cycles are discussed with emphasis on five guidelines that will allow for systematic study and comparative meta-analysis to address important unresolved questions. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Payer, David C.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2013-01-01

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

2015-12-01

Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

Determination of significance in Ecological Impact Assessment: Past change, current practice and future improvements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Briggs, Sam; Hudson, Malcolm D., E-mail: mdh@soton.ac.uk

2013-01-15

Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) is an important tool for conservation and achieving sustainable development. 'Significant' impacts are those which disturb or alter the environment to a measurable degree. Significance is a crucial part of EcIA, our understanding of the concept in practice is vital if it is to be effective as a tool. This study employed three methods to assess how the determination of significance has changed through time, what current practice is, and what would lead to future improvements. Three data streams were collected: interviews with expert stakeholders, a review of 30 Environmental Statements and a broad-scale survey ofmore » the United Kingdom Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (IEEM) members. The approach taken in the determination of significance has become more standardised and subjectivity has become constrained through a transparent framework. This has largely been driven by a set of guidelines produced by IEEM in 2006. The significance of impacts is now more clearly justified and the accuracy with which it is determined has improved. However, there are limitations to accuracy and effectiveness of the determination of significance. These are the quality of baseline survey data, our scientific understanding of ecological processes and the lack of monitoring and feedback of results. These in turn are restricted by the limited resources available in consultancies. The most notable recommendations for future practice are the implementation of monitoring and the publication of feedback, the creation of a central database for baseline survey data and the streamlining of guidance. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The assessment of significance has changed markedly through time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The IEEM guidelines have driven a standardisation of practice. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Currently limited by quality of baseline data and scientific understanding. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Monitoring and feedback would rapidly improve practice.« less

An open future for ecological and evolutionary data?

PubMed

Kenall, Amye; Harold, Simon; Foote, Christopher

2014-04-02

As part of BioMed Central's open science mission, we are pleased to announce that two of our journals have integrated with the open data repository Dryad. Authors submitting their research to either BMC Ecology or BMC Evolutionary Biology will now have the opportunity to deposit their data directly into the Dryad archive and will receive a permanent, citable link to their dataset. Although this does not affect any of our current data deposition policies at these journals, we hope to encourage a more widespread adoption of open data sharing in the fields of ecology and evolutionary biology by facilitating this process for our authors. We also take this opportunity to discuss some of the wider issues that may concern researchers when making their data openly available. Although we offer a number of positive examples from different fields of biology, we also recognise that reticence to data sharing still exists, and that change must be driven from within research communities in order to create future science that is fit for purpose in the digital age. This editorial was published jointly in both BMC Ecology and BMC Evolutionary Biology.

Group size adjustment to ecological demand in a cooperative breeder.

PubMed

Zöttl, Markus; Frommen, Joachim G; Taborsky, Michael

2013-04-07

Environmental factors can determine which group size will maximize the fitness of group members. This is particularly important in cooperative breeders, where group members often serve different purposes. Experimental studies are yet lacking to check whether ecologically mediated need for help will change the propensity of dominant group members to accept immigrants. Here, we manipulated the perceived risk of predation for dominant breeders of the cooperatively breeding cichlid fish Neolamprologus pulcher to test their response to unrelated and previously unknown immigrants. Potential immigrants were more readily accepted if groups were exposed to fish predators or egg predators than to herbivorous fish or control situations lacking predation risk. Our data are consistent with both risk dilution and helping effects. Egg predators were presented before spawning, which might suggest that the fish adjust acceptance rates also to a potential future threat. Dominant group members of N. pulcher apparently consider both present and future need of help based on ecological demand. This suggests that acceptance of immigrants and, more generally, tolerance of group members on demand could be a widespread response to ecological conditions in cooperatively breeding animals.

Ecological complexity buffers the impacts of future climate on marine consumers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, Silvan U.; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Marangon, Emma; Bonnet, Angélique; Ferreira, Camilo M.; Connell, Sean D.

2018-03-01

Ecological complexity represents a network of interacting components that either propagate or counter the effects of environmental change on individuals and communities1-3. Yet, our understanding of the ecological imprint of ocean acidification (elevated CO2) and climate change (elevated temperature) is largely based on reports of negative effects on single species in simplified laboratory systems4,5. By combining a large mesocosm experiment with a global meta-analysis, we reveal the capacity of consumers (fish and crustaceans) to resist the impacts of elevated CO2. While individual behaviours were impaired by elevated CO2, consumers could restore their performances in more complex environments that allowed for compensatory processes. Consequently, consumers maintained key traits such as foraging, habitat selection and predator avoidance despite elevated CO2 and sustained their populations. Our observed increase in risk-taking under elevated temperature, however, predicts greater vulnerability of consumers to predation. Yet, CO2 as a resource boosted the biomass of consumers through species interactions and may stabilize communities by countering the negative effects of elevated temperature. We conclude that compensatory dynamics inherent in the complexity of nature can buffer the impacts of future climate on species and their communities.

Revitalizing traditional ecological knowledge: a study in an Alpine rural community.

PubMed

Ianni, Elena; Geneletti, Davide; Ciolli, Marco

2015-07-01

This study aims to contribute to the debate on the value and the role of ecological knowledge in modern conservation strategies, with reference to the results of a case study conducted in the community of Montagne, located within a World Heritage site in the Italian Alps. This community is a paradigmatic example of the multiple transformations experienced by cultural landscapes in Alpine areas under the influence of global change. This study seeks to understand whether ecological knowledge is still in place in the community, and what the relationship is between the knowledge transmission and land use and social changes that have occurred in recent decades. To that end, the community is described by identifying the key variables (social, institutional, and ecological) that have historically shaped the landscape and the future priorities of the residents. Forest expansion, the most significant change in land use in the last 60 years, is analyzed using aerial photos; changes in biodiversity-related knowledge in the community are quantified by analyzing the inter-generational differences in plant species recognition. Results are discussed in the context of the current situation of the Montagne community, and the recommendation is made that policies and actions to promote traditional ecological knowledge protection or recovery in Europe be viewed as an important part of the recovery of community sovereignty and vitality. Lastly, concrete actions that can be implemented in our case study are proposed.

Revitalizing Traditional Ecological Knowledge: A Study in an Alpine Rural Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ianni, Elena; Geneletti, Davide; Ciolli, Marco

2015-07-01

This study aims to contribute to the debate on the value and the role of ecological knowledge in modern conservation strategies, with reference to the results of a case study conducted in the community of Montagne, located within a World Heritage site in the Italian Alps. This community is a paradigmatic example of the multiple transformations experienced by cultural landscapes in Alpine areas under the influence of global change. This study seeks to understand whether ecological knowledge is still in place in the community, and what the relationship is between the knowledge transmission and land use and social changes that have occurred in recent decades. To that end, the community is described by identifying the key variables (social, institutional, and ecological) that have historically shaped the landscape and the future priorities of the residents. Forest expansion, the most significant change in land use in the last 60 years, is analyzed using aerial photos; changes in biodiversity-related knowledge in the community are quantified by analyzing the inter-generational differences in plant species recognition. Results are discussed in the context of the current situation of the Montagne community, and the recommendation is made that policies and actions to promote traditional ecological knowledge protection or recovery in Europe be viewed as an important part of the recovery of community sovereignty and vitality. Lastly, concrete actions that can be implemented in our case study are proposed.

The evolutionary time machine: forecasting how populations can adapt to changing environments using dormant propagules

PubMed Central

Orsini, Luisa; Schwenk, Klaus; De Meester, Luc; Colbourne, John K.; Pfrender, Michael E.; Weider, Lawrence J.

2013-01-01

Evolutionary changes are determined by a complex assortment of ecological, demographic and adaptive histories. Predicting how evolution will shape the genetic structures of populations coping with current (and future) environmental challenges has principally relied on investigations through space, in lieu of time, because long-term phenotypic and molecular data are scarce. Yet, dormant propagules in sediments, soils and permafrost are convenient natural archives of population-histories from which to trace adaptive trajectories along extended time periods. DNA sequence data obtained from these natural archives, combined with pioneering methods for analyzing both ecological and population genomic time-series data, are likely to provide predictive models to forecast evolutionary responses of natural populations to environmental changes resulting from natural and anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. PMID:23395434

Contact structure, mobility, environmental impact and behaviour: the importance of social forces to infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology

PubMed Central

Gurley, Emily S.

2017-01-01

Human factors, including contact structure, movement, impact on the environment and patterns of behaviour, can have significant influence on the emergence of novel infectious diseases and the transmission and amplification of established ones. As anthropogenic climate change alters natural systems and global economic forces drive land-use and land-cover change, it becomes increasingly important to understand both the ecological and social factors that impact infectious disease outcomes for human populations. While the field of disease ecology explicitly studies the ecological aspects of infectious disease transmission, the effects of the social context on zoonotic pathogen spillover and subsequent human-to-human transmission are comparatively neglected in the literature. The social sciences encompass a variety of disciplines and frameworks for understanding infectious diseases; however, here we focus on four primary areas of social systems that quantitatively and qualitatively contribute to infectious diseases as social–ecological systems. These areas are social mixing and structure, space and mobility, geography and environmental impact, and behaviour and behaviour change. Incorporation of these social factors requires empirical studies for parametrization, phenomena characterization and integrated theoretical modelling of social–ecological interactions. The social–ecological system that dictates infectious disease dynamics is a complex system rich in interacting variables with dynamically significant heterogeneous properties. Future discussions about infectious disease spillover and transmission in human populations need to address the social context that affects particular disease systems by identifying and measuring qualitatively important drivers. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289265

Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate.

PubMed

Prost, Stefan; Guralnick, Robert P; Waltari, Eric; Fedorov, Vadim B; Kuzmina, Elena; Smirnov, Nickolay; van Kolfschoten, Thijs; Hofreiter, Michael; Vrieling, Klaas

2013-06-01

According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4-5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so-far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial-interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow-skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model-testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow-skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Decomposition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2014-01-01

A cornerstone of ecosystem ecology, decomposition was recognized as a fundamental process driving the exchange of energy in ecosystems by early ecologists such as Lindeman 1942 and Odum 1960). In the history of ecology, studies of decomposition were incorporated into the International Biological Program in the 1960s to compare the nature of organic matter breakdown in various ecosystem types. Such studies still have an important role in ecological studies of today. More recent refinements have brought debates on the relative role microbes, invertebrates and environment in the breakdown and release of carbon into the atmosphere, as well as how nutrient cycling, production and other ecosystem processes regulated by decomposition may shift with climate change. Therefore, this bibliography examines the primary literature related to organic matter breakdown, but it also explores topics in which decomposition plays a key supporting role including vegetation composition, latitudinal gradients, altered ecosystems, anthropogenic impacts, carbon storage, and climate change models. Knowledge of these topics is relevant to both the study of ecosystem ecology as well projections of future conditions for human societies.

Life - Past, Present and Future. Environmental Education Curriculum. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Topeka Public Schools, KS.

This unit attempts to interrelate the traditional biological science studies such as food webs, population changes and ecological succession to form a coherent picture of our world today, the factors that created it and the forces that continue to change it. Designed for use in the secondary schools, it is built around nine films and has seven…

The effects of climate downscaling technique and observational data set on modeled ecological responses

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe; Anne M. K. Stoner

2016-01-01

Assessments of future climate change impacts on ecosystems typically rely on multiple climate model projections, but often utilize only one downscaling approach trained on one set of observations. Here, we explore the extent to which modeled biogeochemical responses to changing climate are affected by the selection of the climate downscaling method and training...

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Zhiwei Wu

2017-01-01

Context: Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs. Objectives We used the mechanistic...

Developing digital vegetation for central hardwood forest types: A case study from Leslie County, KY

Treesearch

Bo Song; Wei-lun Tsai; Chiao-ying Chou; Thomas M. Williams; William Conner; Brian J. Williams

2011-01-01

Digital vegetation is the computerized representation, with either virtual images or animations, of vegetation types and conditions based on current measurements or ecological models. Digital vegetation can be useful in evaluating past, present, or future land use; changes in vegetation linked to climate change; or restoration efforts. Digital vegetation can be...

Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

PubMed

Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

2013-06-01

Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of changing climates

Treesearch

Scott L. Stephens; Constance I. Millar; Brandon M. Collins

2010-01-01

Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate...

Eco-logical : an ecosystem approach to developing transportation infrastructure projects in a changing environment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-13

The development of infrastructure facilities can negatively impact critical habitat and essential ecosystems. There are a variety of techniques available to avoid, minimize, and mitigate negative impacts of existing infrastructure as well as future i...

75 FR 26287 - Notice of Permit Applications Received Under the Antarctic Conservation Act of 1978 (Pub. L. 95-541)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-11

... understand the implications of future climate changes. Location Canada Glacier (ASPA 131), Taylor Dry Valley..., Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, 200 West Lake, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1499...

Biodiversity response to natural gradients of multiple stressors on continental margins

PubMed Central

Sperling, Erik A.; Frieder, Christina A.; Levin, Lisa A.

2016-01-01

Sharp increases in atmospheric CO2 are resulting in ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation that threaten marine organisms on continental margins and their ecological functions and resulting ecosystem services. The relative influence of these stressors on biodiversity remains unclear, as well as the threshold levels for change and when secondary stressors become important. One strategy to interpret adaptation potential and predict future faunal change is to examine ecological shifts along natural gradients in the modern ocean. Here, we assess the explanatory power of temperature, oxygen and the carbonate system for macrofaunal diversity and evenness along continental upwelling margins using variance partitioning techniques. Oxygen levels have the strongest explanatory capacity for variation in species diversity. Sharp drops in diversity are seen as O2 levels decline through the 0.5–0.15 ml l−1 (approx. 22–6 µM; approx. 21–5 matm) range, and as temperature increases through the 7–10°C range. pCO2 is the best explanatory variable in the Arabian Sea, but explains little of the variance in diversity in the eastern Pacific Ocean. By contrast, very little variation in evenness is explained by these three global change variables. The identification of sharp thresholds in ecological response are used here to predict areas of the seafloor where diversity is most at risk to future marine global change, noting that the existence of clear regional differences cautions against applying global thresholds. PMID:27122565

Potential impacts of climate change on birds and trees of the eastern United States: newest climate scenarios and species abundance modelling techniques

Treesearch

L.R. Iverson; A.M. Prasad; S.N. Matthews; M.P. Peters

2007-01-01

Climate change is affecting an increasing number of species the world over, and evidence is mounting that these changes will continue to accelerate. There have been many studies that use a modelling approach to predict the effects of future climatic change on ecological systems, including by us (Iverson et al. 1999, Matthews et al. 2004); this modelling approach uses a...

Methodology to assess and map the potential development of forest ecosystems exposed to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition: A pilot study in Germany.

PubMed

Schröder, Winfried; Nickel, Stefan; Jenssen, Martin; Riediger, Jan

2015-07-15

A methodology for mapping ecosystems and their potential development under climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition was developed using examples from Germany. The methodology integrated data on vegetation, soil, climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. These data were used to classify ecosystem types regarding six ecological functions and interrelated structures. Respective data covering 1961-1990 were used for reference. The assessment of functional and structural integrity relies on comparing a current or future state with an ecosystem type-specific reference. While current functions and structures of ecosystems were quantified by measurements, potential future developments were projected by geochemical soil modelling and data from a regional climate change model. The ecosystem types referenced the potential natural vegetation and were mapped using data on current tree species coverage and land use. In this manner, current ecosystem types were derived, which were related to data on elevation, soil texture, and climate for the years 1961-1990. These relations were quantified by Classification and Regression Trees, which were used to map the spatial patterns of ecosystem type clusters for 1961-1990. The climate data for these years were subsequently replaced by the results of a regional climate model for 1991-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. For each of these periods, one map of ecosystem type clusters was produced and evaluated with regard to the development of areal coverage of ecosystem type clusters over time. This evaluation of the structural aspects of ecological integrity at the national level was added by projecting potential future values of indicators for ecological functions at the site level by using the Very Simple Dynamic soil modelling technique based on climate data and two scenarios of nitrogen deposition as input. The results were compared to the reference and enabled an evaluation of site-specific ecosystem changes over time which proved to be both, positive and negative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecology of the North Sea: Problems, successes, failures, future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinne, O.

1995-03-01

After defining ‘ecology’, outlining the basic categories of ecological research and listing examples of modern ecological investigations, this introductory paper focusses on basic considerations; it is, in essence, a programmatic contribution. Research details on the ecology of the North Sea are the subject of the following papers. The problems of ecological North Sea research are formidable. Hydrological and biological fluctuations and variabilities are pronounced. Exchange patterns with the Atlantic are complex, and the inputs of rivers and rain defy exact measurement and prediction. Season, weather, climate—and as yet insufficiently known and controlled human-caused impacts—further complicate the situation. All this results in an unusually high degree of uncertainty. New questions and problems arise before the old ones can be answered or solved. Nevertheless, ecological North Sea research has achieved many successes. The North Sea is the most intensively investigated sea area on our planet. Generations of zoologists, botanists and hydrographers — and more recently microbiologists, meteorologists, climatologists, chemists, pathologists and toxicologists — have produced an impressive body of knowledge. Slowly we are beginning to understand the forces that govern energy budgets and balances, material fluxes, and the factors that control and direct ecosystem dynamics. Essential driving forces of ecosystem dynamics result from microbial, especially bacterial, activities. Ecological modelling has paved the way for new theories and insights, and holds promise for progress towards a predictive ecology. Failures and shortcomings include insufficient long-term research, inadequately designed experiments, and misconceptions in environmental protection. Net changes in ecological processes of an heterogeneous and intensely varying environment such as the North Sea can only be comprehended adequately against the background of sustained measurements over decades. Future needs include: more long-term research; and new patterns of management, institutional organization and financial support. Essential breakthroughs in field-work demand more teamwork, in-situ experimentation and surveys from space. Studies on the health status of organisms and ecosystems should receive more attention. Finally, there is need for changes in human behaviour: we must use our insight and willpower to meet the deadly consequences of our self-made scientific-technological evolution by an equally self-made ethical evolution aimed at achieving a re-harmonization with nature.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling.

PubMed

Carvalho, B M; Rangel, E F; Vale, M M

2017-08-01

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

Ecological approaches to informing public health policy and risk assessments on emerging vector-borne zoonoses

PubMed Central

Medlock, JM; Jameson, LJ

2010-01-01

Pathogens associated with vector-borne zoonoses occur in enzootic cycles within nature. They are driven by a combination of vertebrate host and invertebrate vector population dynamics, which in turn respond to changes in environmental stimuli. Human involvement in these cycles, and hence the occurrence of human disease, is often to act as incidental host. From a public health perspective our ability to better predict human outbreaks of these diseases and prepare intervention and mitigation strategies relies on understanding the natural cycle of pathogen transmission. This requires consideration of, for example, invertebrate and vertebrate ecology and biology, climatology, land use and habitat change. Collectively, these can be referred to as medical entomology and medical ecology. This article reviews the importance for inclusion of such disciplines when assessing the public health risk from vector-borne zoonoses and summarizes the possible future challenges and driving forces for changes in vector status and vector-borne zoonoses emergence, with a particular focus on a UK and European context. PMID:22460391

Ecology of zoonotic infectious diseases in bats: current knowledge and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayman, D.T.; Bowen, R.A.; Cryan, P.M.; McCracken, G.F.; O'Shea, T.J.; Peel, A.J.; Gilbert, A.; Webb, C.T.; Wood, J.L.

2013-01-01

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics.

Ecology of Zoonotic Infectious Diseases in Bats: Current Knowledge and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Hayman, D T S; Bowen, R A; Cryan, P M; McCracken, G F; O’Shea, T J; Peel, A J; Gilbert, A; Webb, C T; Wood, J L N

2013-01-01

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics. PMID:22958281

Seahorses under a changing ocean: the impact of warming and acidification on the behaviour and physiology of a poor-swimming bony-armoured fish

PubMed Central

Baptista, Miguel; Santos, Catarina; Aurélio, Maria L; Pimentel, Marta; Pegado, Maria Rita; Paula, José Ricardo; Calado, Ricardo; Repolho, Tiago; Rosa, Rui

2015-01-01

Abstract Seahorses are currently facing great challenges in the wild, including habitat degradation and overexploitation, and how they will endure additional stress from rapid climate change has yet to be determined. Unlike most fishes, the poor swimming skills of seahorses, along with the ecological and biological constraints of their unique lifestyle, place great weight on their physiological ability to cope with climate changes. In the present study, we evaluate the effects of ocean warming (+4°C) and acidification (ΔpH = −0.5 units) on the physiological and behavioural ecology of adult temperate seahorses, Hippocampus guttulatus. Adult seahorses were found to be relatively well prepared to face future changes in ocean temperature, but not the combined effect of warming and acidification. Seahorse metabolism increased normally with warming, and behavioural and feeding responses were not significantly affected. However, during hypercapnia the seahorses exhibited signs of lethargy (i.e. reduced activity levels) combined with a reduction of feeding and ventilation rates. Nonetheless, metabolic rates were not significantly affected. Future ocean changes, particularly ocean acidification, may further threaten seahorse conservation, turning these charismatic fishes into important flagship species for global climate change issues. PMID:27293694

The Geology of the Florida Keys.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shinn, Eugene A.

1988-01-01

Describes some of the ancient geologic history of the Florida Keys from Key Largo to Key West including the effects of glaciers, sea level rise, reef distribution, spurs and grooves, backstepping and ecological zonation, growth rates and erosion. Predicts future changes in this area. (CW)

Utilization of farm animal genetic resources in a changing agro-ecological environment in the Nordic countries.

PubMed

Kantanen, Juha; Løvendahl, Peter; Strandberg, Erling; Eythorsdottir, Emma; Li, Meng-Hua; Kettunen-Præbel, Anne; Berg, Peer; Meuwissen, Theo

2015-01-01

Livestock production is the most important component of northern European agriculture and contributes to and will be affected by climate change. Nevertheless, the role of farm animal genetic resources in the adaptation to new agro-ecological conditions and mitigation of animal production's effects on climate change has been inadequately discussed despite there being several important associations between animal genetic resources and climate change issues. The sustainability of animal production systems and future food security require access to a wide diversity of animal genetic resources. There are several genetic questions that should be considered in strategies promoting adaptation to climate change and mitigation of environmental effects of livestock production. For example, it may become important to choose among breeds and even among farm animal species according to their suitability to a future with altered production systems. Some animals with useful phenotypes and genotypes may be more useful than others in the changing environment. Robust animal breeds with the potential to adapt to new agro-ecological conditions and tolerate new diseases will be needed. The key issue in mitigation of harmful greenhouse gas effects induced by livestock production is the reduction of methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants. There are differences in CH4 emissions among breeds and among individual animals within breeds that suggest a potential for improvement in the trait through genetic selection. Characterization of breeds and individuals with modern genomic tools should be applied to identify breeds that have genetically adapted to marginal conditions and to get critical information for breeding and conservation programs for farm animal genetic resources. We conclude that phenotyping and genomic technologies and adoption of new breeding approaches, such as genomic selection introgression, will promote breeding for useful characters in livestock species.

It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling.

PubMed

Quaas, Martin F; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Schmidt, Jörn O; Tahvonen, Olli; Voss, Rudi

2016-01-01

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Utilization of farm animal genetic resources in a changing agro-ecological environment in the Nordic countries

PubMed Central

Kantanen, Juha; Løvendahl, Peter; Strandberg, Erling; Eythorsdottir, Emma; Li, Meng-Hua; Kettunen-Præbel, Anne; Berg, Peer; Meuwissen, Theo

2015-01-01

Livestock production is the most important component of northern European agriculture and contributes to and will be affected by climate change. Nevertheless, the role of farm animal genetic resources in the adaptation to new agro-ecological conditions and mitigation of animal production’s effects on climate change has been inadequately discussed despite there being several important associations between animal genetic resources and climate change issues. The sustainability of animal production systems and future food security require access to a wide diversity of animal genetic resources. There are several genetic questions that should be considered in strategies promoting adaptation to climate change and mitigation of environmental effects of livestock production. For example, it may become important to choose among breeds and even among farm animal species according to their suitability to a future with altered production systems. Some animals with useful phenotypes and genotypes may be more useful than others in the changing environment. Robust animal breeds with the potential to adapt to new agro-ecological conditions and tolerate new diseases will be needed. The key issue in mitigation of harmful greenhouse gas effects induced by livestock production is the reduction of methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants. There are differences in CH4 emissions among breeds and among individual animals within breeds that suggest a potential for improvement in the trait through genetic selection. Characterization of breeds and individuals with modern genomic tools should be applied to identify breeds that have genetically adapted to marginal conditions and to get critical information for breeding and conservation programs for farm animal genetic resources. We conclude that phenotyping and genomic technologies and adoption of new breeding approaches, such as genomic selection introgression, will promote breeding for useful characters in livestock species. PMID:25767477

Compounding Impacts of Climate Change and Increased Human Water Withdrawal on Urmia Lake Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alborzi, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Azaranfar, A.; Mallakpour, I.; Ashraf, B.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, climate change and increase in human water withdrawal, combined, have caused ecological degradation in several terminal lakes worldwide. Among them, the shallow and hyper-saline Urmia Lake in Iran has experienced about 6 meters drawdown in lake level and 80% reduction in surface area. Here, we assess the imposed stress on Urmia Basin's water availability and Lake's ecological condition in response to coupled climate change and human-induced water withdrawal. A generalized river basin decision support system model consisting network flow is developed to simulate the basin-lake interactions under a wide range of scenarios. This model explicitly includes water management infrastructure, reservoirs, and irrigation and municipal water use. Studied scenarios represent a wide range of historic climate and water use scenarios including a historical baseline, future increase in water demand, and also improved water efficiency. In this presentation, we show the lake's water level, as a measure of lake's ecological health, under the compounding effects of the climate condition (top-down) and water use (bottom-up) scenarios. This method illustrates what combinations lead to failure in meeting the lake's ecological level.

Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates

Treesearch

Susan C. Loeb; Eric A. Winters

2013-01-01

Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern...

Effects of land-cover change on spatial pattern of forest communities in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA)

Treesearch

Monica G. Turner; Scott M. Pearson; Paul Bolstad; David N. Wear

2003-01-01

Understanding the implications of past. present and future patterns of human land use for biodiversity and ecosystem function is increasingly important in landscape ecology. We examined effects of land-use change on four major forest communities of the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), addressed two questions: (1) Are and forest communities differentially...

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network

Treesearch

Enric Batllori; Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Max A. Moritz; Carol Miller

2017-01-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform...

Monitoring change in Great Salt Lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naftz, David L.; Angeroth, Cory E.; Freeman, Michael L.; Rowland, Ryan C.; Carling, Gregory

2013-01-01

Despite the ecological and economic importance of Great Salt Lake, only limited water quality monitoring has occurred historically. To change this, new monitoring stations and networks—gauges of lake level height and rate of inflow, moored buoys, and multiple lake-bottom sensors—will provide important information that can be used to make informed decisions regarding future management of the Great Salt Lake ecosystem.

Introduction to the special section on alternative futures for Great Basin ecosystems

Treesearch

Erica Fleishman; Jeanne C. Chambers; Michael J. Wisdom

2009-01-01

Natural and anthropogenic processes are causing extensive and rapid ecological, social, and economic changes in arid and semiarid ecosystems worldwide. Nowhere are these changes more evident than in the Great Basin of the western United States, a region of 400,000 km2 that largely is managed by federal agencies. Major drivers of ecosystems and human demographics of the...

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

Freshwater Biodiversity and Insect Diversification

PubMed Central

Dijkstra, Klaas-Douwe B.; Monaghan, Michael T.; Pauls, Steffen U.

2016-01-01

Inland waters cover less than one percent of Earth’s surface, but harbor more than six percent of all insect species: nearly 100,000 species from 12 orders spend one or more life stages in freshwater. Little is known about how this remarkable diversity arose, although allopatric speciation and ecological adaptation are thought to be primary mechanisms. Freshwater habitats are exceptionally susceptible to environmental change, and exhibit marked ecological gradients. The amphibiotic lifestyles of aquatic insects result in complex contributions of extinction and allopatric and non-allopatric speciation in species diversification. In contrast to the lack of evolutionary studies, the ecology and habitat preferences of aquatic insects have been intensively studied, in part because of their widespread use as bio-indicators. The combination of phylogenetics with the extensive ecological data provides a promising avenue for future research, making aquatic insects highly suitable models for the study of ecological diversification. PMID:24160433

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Landscape fragmentation and pollinator movement within agricultural environments: a modelling framework for exploring foraging and movement ecology

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Pollinator decline has been linked to landscape change, through both habitat fragmentation and the loss of habitat suitable for the pollinators to live within. One method for exploring why landscape change should affect pollinator populations is to combine individual-level behavioural ecological techniques with larger-scale landscape ecology. A modelling framework is described that uses spatially-explicit individual-based models to explore the effects of individual behavioural rules within a landscape. The technique described gives a simple method for exploring the effects of the removal of wild corridors, and the creation of wild set-aside fields: interventions that are common to many national agricultural policies. The effects of these manipulations on central-place nesting pollinators are varied, and depend upon the behavioural rules that the pollinators are using to move through the environment. The value of this modelling framework is discussed, and future directions for exploration are identified. PMID:24795848

Studying the Past for the Future: Managing Modern Biodiversity from Historic and Prehistoric Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foster, Professor Thomas; Olsen, Lisa M; Dale, Virginia H

Management of biodiversity and anthropogenic effects on the environment are some of the most difficult challenges facing humans today. In this paper, we describe how archaeological, historical, and ecological data can be combined to identify metrics of ecological change. Archaeological surveys, historic witness tree data, analysis of ancient pollen, and recent satellite imagery are combined to create indicators of change that are useable by modem environmental managers at Fort Benning Military Reservation in Georgia and Alabama in the United States. Archaeological data were collected at 30 meter intervals, historic vegetation data were collected from early nineteenth century survey maps, andmore » ancient pollen and charcoal were collected from soil cores in lakes. We show how data sets collected with disparate goals from anthropology and ecology can be applied to make policy decisions about environmental management.« less

Landscape fragmentation and pollinator movement within agricultural environments: a modelling framework for exploring foraging and movement ecology.

PubMed

Rands, Sean A

2014-01-01

Pollinator decline has been linked to landscape change, through both habitat fragmentation and the loss of habitat suitable for the pollinators to live within. One method for exploring why landscape change should affect pollinator populations is to combine individual-level behavioural ecological techniques with larger-scale landscape ecology. A modelling framework is described that uses spatially-explicit individual-based models to explore the effects of individual behavioural rules within a landscape. The technique described gives a simple method for exploring the effects of the removal of wild corridors, and the creation of wild set-aside fields: interventions that are common to many national agricultural policies. The effects of these manipulations on central-place nesting pollinators are varied, and depend upon the behavioural rules that the pollinators are using to move through the environment. The value of this modelling framework is discussed, and future directions for exploration are identified.

Contact structure, mobility, environmental impact and behaviour: the importance of social forces to infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology.

PubMed

Arthur, Ronan F; Gurley, Emily S; Salje, Henrik; Bloomfield, Laura S P; Jones, James H

2017-05-05

Human factors, including contact structure, movement, impact on the environment and patterns of behaviour, can have significant influence on the emergence of novel infectious diseases and the transmission and amplification of established ones. As anthropogenic climate change alters natural systems and global economic forces drive land-use and land-cover change, it becomes increasingly important to understand both the ecological and social factors that impact infectious disease outcomes for human populations. While the field of disease ecology explicitly studies the ecological aspects of infectious disease transmission, the effects of the social context on zoonotic pathogen spillover and subsequent human-to-human transmission are comparatively neglected in the literature. The social sciences encompass a variety of disciplines and frameworks for understanding infectious diseases; however, here we focus on four primary areas of social systems that quantitatively and qualitatively contribute to infectious diseases as social-ecological systems. These areas are social mixing and structure, space and mobility, geography and environmental impact, and behaviour and behaviour change. Incorporation of these social factors requires empirical studies for parametrization, phenomena characterization and integrated theoretical modelling of social-ecological interactions. The social-ecological system that dictates infectious disease dynamics is a complex system rich in interacting variables with dynamically significant heterogeneous properties. Future discussions about infectious disease spillover and transmission in human populations need to address the social context that affects particular disease systems by identifying and measuring qualitatively important drivers.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Towards the use of Structural Loop Analysis to Study System Behaviour of Socio-Ecological Systems.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abram, Joseph; Dyke, James

2016-04-01

Maintaining socio-ecological systems in desirable states is key to developing a growing economy, alleviating poverty and achieving a sustainable future. While the driving forces of an environmental system are often well known, the dynamics impacting these drivers can be hidden within a tangled structure of causal chains and feedback loops. A lack of understanding of a system's dynamic structure and its influence on a system's behaviour can cause unforeseen side-effects during model scenario testing and policy implementation. Structural Loop analysis of socio-ecological system models identifies dominant feedback structures during times of behavioural shift, allowing the user to monitor key influential drivers during model simulation. This work carries out Loop Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis (LEEA) on three system dynamic models, exploring tipping points in lake systems undergoing eutrophication. The purpose is to explore the potential benefits and limitations of the technique in the field of socio-ecology. The LEEA technique shows promise for socio-ecological systems which undergo regime shifts or express oscillatory trends, but shows limited usefulness with large models. The results of this work highlight changes in feedback loop dominance, years prior to eutrophic tipping events in lake systems. LEEA could be used as an early warning signal to impending system changes, complementary to other known early warning signals. This approach could improve our understanding during critical times of a system's behaviour, changing how we approach model analysis and the way scenario testing and policy implementation are addressed in socio-ecological system models.

Ecological Limits to Terrestrial Carbon Dioxide Removal Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. J.; Torn, M. S.; Jones, A. D.

2011-12-01

Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere through terrestrial carbon sequestration and bioenergy (biological CDR) is a proposed climate change mitigation strategy. Biological CDR increases the carbon storage capacity of soils and biomass through changes in land cover and use, including reforestation, afforestation, conversion of land to agriculture for biofuels, conversion of degraded land to grassland, and alternative management practices such as conservation tillage. While biological CDR may play a valuable role in future climate change mitigation, many of its proponents fail to account for the full range of biological, biophysical, hydrologic, and economic complexities associated with proposed land use changes. In this analysis, we identify and discuss a set of ecological limits and impacts associated with terrestrial CDR. The capacity of biofuels, soils, and other living biomass to sequester carbon may be constrained by nutrient and water availability, soil dynamics, and local climate effects, all of which can change spatially and temporally in unpredictable ways. Even if CDR is effective at sequestering CO2, its associated land use and land cover changes may negatively impact ecological resources by compromising water quality and availability, degrading soils, reducing biodiversity, displacing agriculture, and altering local climate through albedo and evapotranspiration changes. Measures taken to overcome ecological limitations, such as fertilizer addition and irrigation, may exacerbate these impacts even further. The ecological considerations and quantitative analyses that we present highlight uncertainties introduced by ecological complexity, disagreements between models, perverse economic incentives, and changing environmental factors. We do not reject CDR as a potentially valuable strategy for climate change mitigation; ecosystem protection, restoration, and improved management practices could enhance soil fertility and protect biodiversity while reducing increases in atmospheric CO2. Rather, we emphasize the importance of evaluating the full set of biological, physical, economic, and political realities that accompany land-use changes and manipulations to the carbon cycle. While the immediate goal of biological CDR is to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations, its ultimate goal in mitigating climate change is to reduce the threats to ecosystems and society. Sequestering carbon at the cost of ecosystem health would not be a sensible approach.

Introducing future engineers to sustainable ecology problems: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filipkowski, A.

2011-12-01

The problem of Earth environmental destruction by human activities is becoming dangerous. Engineers responsible for the production of any goods should be well aware of the negative influence of their activities on the state of the planet. This is why the understanding of ecological problems is essential for people responsible for production and industrial design. The energy, which they consume, is increasing the greenhouse effect and the waste poisons the environment. So far, most courses on ecology are offered to specialists in environmental engineering. These courses are filled with many details. The Warsaw Academy of Computer Science, Management and Administration teaches students in the direction of management and production engineering. Upon completion, the students receive the degree of 'engineer'. Their future work will mainly concern management of different types of industrial enterprises and they will be responsible for organising it in such a way as to avoid a dangerous contribution to environmental pollution and climate change. This is why it was decided to introduce a new course entitled 'Principles of Ecology and Environmental Management'. This course is quite broad, concerning almost all technical, law and organisational aspects of the problem. The presentation is made in a spectacular way, aiming to convince students that their future activity must be environmentally friendly. It contains information about international activities in ecology, legal aspects concerning pollution, technical and information methods of monitoring and, finally, the description of 'green' solutions. Altogether, 27 hours of lectures and 15 hours of discussions and students' presentations complete the course. Details of this course are described in this paper.

Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Xu, Min; Pandit, Shreejana

2018-01-01

Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal. PMID:29360797

North American Waterfowl Distributions: Analyzing Long-Term Stability and Case Studies Exploring Potential Drivers of Change

EPA Science Inventory

Knowledge about how species distributions shift through time increases basic ecological understanding, improves species management and conservation, and allows for enhanced predictions about the future. This type of research is difficult to conduct, especially for migratory wate...

The precision problem in conservation and restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hiers, J. Kevin; Jackson, Stephen T.; Hobbs, Richard J.; Bernhardt, Emily S.; Valentine, Leonie E.

2016-01-01

Within the varied contexts of environmental policy, conservation of imperilled species populations, and restoration of damaged habitats, an emphasis on idealized optimal conditions has led to increasingly specific targets for management. Overly-precise conservation targets can reduce habitat variability at multiple scales, with unintended consequences for future ecological resilience. We describe this dilemma in the context of endangered species management, stream restoration, and climate-change adaptation. Inappropriate application of conservation targets can be expensive, with marginal conservation benefit. Reduced habitat variability can limit options for managers trying to balance competing objectives with limited resources. Conservation policies should embrace habitat variability, expand decision-space appropriately, and support adaptation to local circumstances to increase ecological resilience in a rapidly changing world.

Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China

PubMed Central

Xie, Hualin; Wang, Peng; Huang, Hongsheng

2013-01-01

Land use/land cover change has been attracting increasing attention in the field of global environmental change research because of its role in the social and ecological environment. To explore the ecological risk characteristics of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China, an eco-risk index was established in this study by the combination of a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragmentation index. Spatial distribution and gradient difference of land use eco-risk are analyzed by using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and semivariance. Results show that ecological risk in the study area has a positive correlation, and there is a decreasing trend with the increase of grain size both in 1995 and 2005. Because the area of high eco-risk value increased from 1995 to 2005, eco-environment quality declined slightly in the study area. There are distinct spatial changes in the concentrated areas with high land use eco-risk values from 1995 to 2005. The step length of spatial separation of land use eco-risk is comparatively long—58 km in 1995 and 11 km in 2005—respectively. There are still nonstructural factors affecting the quality of the regional ecological environment at some small-scales. Our research results can provide some useful information for land eco-management, eco-environmental harnessing and restoration. In the future, some measures should be put forward in the regions with high eco-risk value, which include strengthening land use management, avoiding unreasonable types of land use and reducing the degree of fragmentation and separation. PMID:23343986

Habitat suitability and ecological niches of different plankton functional types in the global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, Meike; Brun, Philipp; Payne, Mark R.; O'Brien, Colleen J.; Bednaršek, Nina; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Doney, Scott C.; Leblanc, Karine; Le Quéré, Corinne; Luo, Yawei; Moriarty, Róisín; O'Brien, Todd D.; Schiebel, Ralf; Swan, Chantal

2013-04-01

Marine plankton play a central role in the biogeochemical cycling of important elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and sulphur. While our knowledge about marine ecosystem structure and functioning is still scarce and episodic, several recent observational studies confirm that marine ecosystems have been changing due to recent climate change, overfishing, and coastal eutrophication. In order to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, the MAREDAT initiative has recently collected abundance and biomass data for 5 autotrophic (diatoms, Phaeocystis, coccolithophores, nitrogen fixers, picophytoplankton), and 6 heterotrophic plankton functional types (PFTs; bacteria, micro-, meso- and macrozooplankton, foraminifera and pteropods). Species distribution models (SDMs) are statistical tools that can be used to derive information about species habitats in space and time. They have been used extensively for a wide range of ecological applications in terrestrial ecosystems, but here we present the first global application in the marine realm, which was made possible by the MAREDAT data synthesis effort. We use a maximum entropy SDM to simulate global habitat suitability, habitat extent and ecological niches for different PFTs in the modern ocean. Present habitat suitability is derived from presence-only MAREDAT data and the observed annual and monthly mean levels of physiologically relevant variables such as SST, nutrient concentration or photosynthetic active radiation received in the mixed layer. This information can then be used to derive ecological niches for different species or taxa within each PFT, and to compare the ecological niches of different PFTs. While these results still need verification because data was not available for all ocean regions for all PFTs, they can give a first indication what present and future plankton habitats may look like, and what consequences we may have to expect for future marine ecosystem functioning and service provision in a warmer world.

Some directions in ecological theory.

PubMed

Kendall, Bruce E

2015-12-01

The role of theory within ecology has changed dramatically in recent decades. Once primarily a source of qualitative conceptual framing, ecological theories and models are now often used to develop quantitative explanations of empirical patterns and to project future dynamics of specific ecological systems. In this essay, I recount my own experience of this transformation, in which accelerating computing power and the widespread incorporation of stochastic processes into ecological theory combined to create some novel integration of mathematical and statistical models. This stronger integration drives theory towards incorporating more biological realism, and I explore ways in which we can grapple with that realism to generate new general theoretical insights. This enhanced realism, in turn, may lead to frameworks for projecting ecological responses to anthropogenic change, which is, arguably, the central challenge for 21st-century ecology. In an era of big data and synthesis, ecologists are increasingly seeking to infer causality from observational data; but conventional biometry provides few tools for this project. This is a realm where theorists can and should play an important role, and I close by pointing towards some analytical and philosophical approaches developed in our sister discipline of economics that address this very problem. While I make no grand prognostications about the likely discoveries of ecological theory over the coming century, you will find in this essay a scattering of more or less far-fetched ideas that I, at least, think are interesting and (possibly) fruitful directions for our field.

Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems.

PubMed

Feary, David A; Burt, John A; Bauman, Andrew G; Al Hazeem, Shaker; Abdel-Moati, Mohamed A; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa A; Anderson, Donald M; Amos, Carl; Baker, Andrew; Bartholomew, Aaron; Bento, Rita; Cavalcante, Geórgenes H; Chen, Chaolun Allen; Coles, Steve L; Dab, Koosha; Fowler, Ashley M; George, David; Grandcourt, Edwin; Hill, Ross; John, David M; Jones, David A; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Mahmoud, Huda; Moradi Och Tapeh, Mahdi; Mostafavi, Pargol Ghavam; Naser, Humood; Pichon, Michel; Purkis, Sam; Riegl, Bernhard; Samimi-Namin, Kaveh; Sheppard, Charles; Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Voolstra, Christian R; Wiedenmann, Joerg

2013-07-30

Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/Persian Gulf (thereafter 'Gulf') coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Critical research needs for identifying future changes in Gulf coral reef ecosystems

PubMed Central

Feary, David A.; Burt, John A.; Bauman, Andrew G.; Al Hazeem, Shaker; Abdel-Moati, Mohamed A.; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa A.; Anderson, Donald M.; Amos, Carl; Baker, Andrew; Bartholomew, Aaron; Bento, Rita; Cavalcante, Geórgenes H.; Chen, Chaolun Allen; Coles, Steve L.; Dab, Koosha; Fowler, Ashley M.; George, David; Grandcourt, Edwin; Hill, Ross; John, David M.; Jones, David A.; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Mahmoud, Huda; Moradi Och Tapeh, Mahdi; Mostafavi, Pargol Ghavam; Naser, Humood; Pichon, Michel; Purkis, Sam; Riegl, Bernhard; Samimi-Namin, Kaveh; Sheppard, Charles; Vajed Samiei, Jahangir; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wiedenmann, Joerg

2014-01-01

Expert opinion was assessed to identify current knowledge gaps in determining future changes in Arabian/ Persian Gulf (thereafter ‘Gulf’) coral reefs. Thirty-one participants submitted 71 research questions that were peer-assessed in terms of scientific importance (i.e., filled a knowledge gap and was a research priority) and efficiency in resource use (i.e., was highly feasible and ecologically broad). Ten research questions, in six major research areas, were highly important for both understanding Gulf coral reef ecosystems and also an efficient use of limited research resources. These questions mirrored global evaluations of the importance of understanding and evaluating biodiversity, determining the potential impacts of climate change, the role of anthropogenic impacts in structuring coral reef communities, and economically evaluating coral reef communities. These questions provide guidance for future research on coral reef ecosystems within the Gulf, and enhance the potential for assessment and management of future changes in this globally significant region. PMID:23643407

Recent climate warming drives ecological change in a remote high-Arctic lake.

PubMed

Woelders, Lineke; Lenaerts, Jan T M; Hagemans, Kimberley; Akkerman, Keechy; van Hoof, Thomas B; Hoek, Wim Z

2018-05-01

The high Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth, evidenced by extreme near-surface temperature increase in non-summer seasons, recent rapid sea ice decline and permafrost melting since the early 1990's. Understanding the impact of climate change on the sensitive Arctic ecosystem to climate change has so far been hampered by the lack of time-constrained, high-resolution records and by implicit climate data analyses. Here, we show evidence of sharp growth in freshwater green algae as well as distinct diatom assemblage changes since ~1995, retrieved from a high-Arctic (80 °N) lake sediment record on Barentsøya (Svalbard). The proxy record approaches an annual to biennial resolution. Combining remote sensing and in-situ climate data, we show that this ecological change is concurrent with, and is likely driven by, the atmospheric warming and a sharp decrease in the length of the sea ice covered period in the region, and throughout the Arctic. Moreover, this research demonstrates the value of palaeoclimate records in pristine environments for supporting and extending instrumental records. Our results reinforce and extend observations from other sites that the high Arctic has already undergone rapid ecological changes in response to on-going climate change, and will continue to do so in the future.

Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnosky, Anthony D.; Hadly, Elizabeth A.; Head, Jason; Gonzalez, Patrick; Polly, P. David; Lawing, A. Michelle; Eronen, Jussi T.; Ackerly, David D.; Alex, Ken; Biber, Eric; Blois, Jessica L.; Brashares, Justin; Ceballos, Gerardo; Davis, Edward; Dietl, Gregory P.; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Doremus, Holly; Fortelius, Mikael; Greene, Harry W.; Hellmann, Jessica; Hickler, Thomas; Jackson, Stephen T.; Kemp, Melissa; Koch, Paul L.; Kremen, Claire; Lindsey, Emily L.; Looy, Cindy; Marshall, Charles R.; Mendenhall, Chase; Mulch, Andreas; Mychajliw, Alexis M.; Nowak, Carsten; Ramakrishnan, Uma; Schnitzler, Jan; Das Shrestha, Kashish; Solari, Katherine; Stegner, Lynn; Stegner, M. Allison; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Wake, Marvalee H.; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-01-01

The current impacts of humanity on nature are rapid and destructive, but species turnover and change have occurred throughout the history of life. Although there is much debate about the best approaches to take in conservation, ultimately, we need to permit or enhance the resilience of natural systems so that they can continue to adapt and function into the future. In a Review, Barnosky et al. argue that the best way to do this is to look back at paleontological history as a way to understand how ecological resilience is maintained, even in the face of change.

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-01-15

The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

PubMed

Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

2015-06-07

Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

PubMed

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

2018-01-01

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive land-use changes and management may buffer water quality against undesirable future climate changes, but changing climate may overwhelm management efforts to sustain freshwater supply and flood regulation. Spatially, changes in ecosystem services were heterogeneous across the landscape, underscoring the power of local actions and fine-scale management. Our research highlights the value of embracing spatial and temporal perspectives in managing ecosystem services and their complex interactions, and provides a system-level understanding for achieving sustainability of the food-water-climate nexus in agricultural landscapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological role and services of tropical mangrove ecosystems: a reassessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Shing Yip; Primavera, Jurgene H.; Dahdouh-Guebas, Farid; McKee, Karen; Bosire, Jared O.; Cannicci, Stefano; Diele, Karen; Fromard, Francois; Koedam, Nico; Marchand, Cyril; Mendelssohn, Irving; Mukherjee, Nibedita; Record, Sydne

2014-01-01

Knowledge of thresholds, spatio-temporal scaling and variability due to geographic, biogeographic and socio-economic settings will improve the management of mangrove ecosystem services. Many drivers respond to global trends in climate change and local changes such as urbanization. While mangroves have traditionally been managed for subsistence, future governance models must involve partnerships between local custodians of mangroves and offsite beneficiaries of the services.

Climate change vulnerability assessment for the Chugach National Forest and the Kenai Peninsula

Treesearch

Gregory H. Hayward; Steve Colt; Monica L. McTeague; Teresa N. Hollingsworth

2017-01-01

This assessment evaluates the effects of future climate change on a select set of ecological systems and ecosystem services in Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula and Chugach National Forest regions. The focus of the assessment was established during a multi-agency/organization workshop that established the goal to conduct a rigorous evaluation of a limited range of topics rather...

Ecology and functional roles of biological soil crusts in semi-arid ecosystems of Spain

PubMed Central

Maestre, Fernando T.; Bowker, Matthew A.; Cantón, Yolanda; Castillo-Monroy, Andrea P.; Cortina, Jordi; Escolar, Cristina; Escudero, Adrián; Lázaro, Roberto; Martínez, Isabel

2015-01-01

Biological soil crusts (BSCs), composed of lichens, cyanobacteria, mosses, liverworts and microorganisms, are key biotic components of arid and semi-arid ecosystems worldwide. Despite they are widespread in Spain, these organisms have been historically understudied in this country. This trend is beginning to change as a recent wave of research has been identifying BSCs as a model ecological system. Many studies and research projects carried out in Spain have explored the role of BSCs on water, carbon and nitrogen fluxes, the interactions between BSCs and vascular plants, their dynamics after disturbances, and their response to global change, among other topics. In this article we review the growing body of research on BSCs available from semi-arid areas of Spain, highlighting its importance for increasing our knowledge on this group of organisms. We also discuss how it is breaking new ground in emerging research areas on the ecology of BSCs, and how it can be use to guide management and restoration efforts. Finally, we provide directions for future research on the ecology of BSCs in Spain and abroad. PMID:25908884

Hydrofutures and Hydromorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2006-12-01

Hydromorphology refers to the science of hydrologic evolution. It represents a synthesis of planetary and social sciences that collectively determine the spatial and temporal evolution of planetary water. At present human actions directly or indirectly play a major role in determining hydrofutures. Man's role in changing water trajectories is now clear at both local and planetary scales. Changing climate leads to changing ecology and changing water patterns. Changing water conditions may in turn regulate (limit anthropogenic climate change) or adversely impact (e.g., runaway greenhouse) climate, as well as human habitation and water use patterns. This talk will address the problem of the prediction of future hydrologic conditions in the different media and reservoirs of the planet, from the integrated perspective indicated above. Key examples of the mechanisms of hydrologic change, that relate to climate and ecological dyanmics, and to human activity are identified as well. A theoretical framework for researching this multi-attribute dynamical system from a water centric perspective is advocated as a critical need for planetary science and human welfare.

Participatory adaptive management leads to environmental learning outcomes extending beyond the sphere of science.

PubMed

Fujitani, Marie; McFall, Andrew; Randler, Christoph; Arlinghaus, Robert

2017-06-01

Resolving uncertainties in managed social-ecological systems requires adaptive experimentation at whole-ecosystem levels. However, whether participatory adaptive management fosters ecological understanding among stakeholders beyond the sphere of science is unknown. We experimentally involved members of German angling clubs ( n = 181 in workshops, n = 2483 in total) engaged in self-governance of freshwater fisheries resources in a large-scale ecological experiment of active adaptive management of fish stocking, which constitutes a controversial management practice for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning when conducted inappropriately. The collaborative ecological experiments spanned several years and manipulated fish densities in 24 lakes with two species. In parallel, we experimentally compared changes in ecological knowledge and antecedents of proenvironmental behavior in stakeholders and managers who were members of a participatory adaptive management treatment group, with those receiving only a standard lecture, relative to placebo controls. Using a within-subjects pretest-posttest control design, changes in ecological knowledge, environmental beliefs, attitudes, norms, and behavioral intentions were evaluated. Participants in adaptive management retained more knowledge of ecological topics after a period of 8 months compared to those receiving a standard lecture, both relative to controls. Involvement in adaptive management was also the only treatment that altered personal norms and beliefs related to stocking. Critically, only the stakeholders who participated in adaptive management reduced their behavioral intentions to engage in fish stocking in the future. Adaptive management is essential for robust ecological knowledge, and we show that involving stakeholders in adaptive management experiments is a powerful tool to enhance ecological literacy and build environmental capacity to move toward sustainability.

Participatory adaptive management leads to environmental learning outcomes extending beyond the sphere of science

PubMed Central

Fujitani, Marie; McFall, Andrew; Randler, Christoph; Arlinghaus, Robert

2017-01-01

Resolving uncertainties in managed social-ecological systems requires adaptive experimentation at whole-ecosystem levels. However, whether participatory adaptive management fosters ecological understanding among stakeholders beyond the sphere of science is unknown. We experimentally involved members of German angling clubs (n = 181 in workshops, n = 2483 in total) engaged in self-governance of freshwater fisheries resources in a large-scale ecological experiment of active adaptive management of fish stocking, which constitutes a controversial management practice for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning when conducted inappropriately. The collaborative ecological experiments spanned several years and manipulated fish densities in 24 lakes with two species. In parallel, we experimentally compared changes in ecological knowledge and antecedents of proenvironmental behavior in stakeholders and managers who were members of a participatory adaptive management treatment group, with those receiving only a standard lecture, relative to placebo controls. Using a within-subjects pretest-posttest control design, changes in ecological knowledge, environmental beliefs, attitudes, norms, and behavioral intentions were evaluated. Participants in adaptive management retained more knowledge of ecological topics after a period of 8 months compared to those receiving a standard lecture, both relative to controls. Involvement in adaptive management was also the only treatment that altered personal norms and beliefs related to stocking. Critically, only the stakeholders who participated in adaptive management reduced their behavioral intentions to engage in fish stocking in the future. Adaptive management is essential for robust ecological knowledge, and we show that involving stakeholders in adaptive management experiments is a powerful tool to enhance ecological literacy and build environmental capacity to move toward sustainability. PMID:28630904

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis

PubMed Central

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G. John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F. André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species’ native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain. PMID:27248830

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

PubMed

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

Our microbial selves: what ecology can teach us

PubMed Central

Gonzalez, Antonio; Clemente, Jose C; Shade, Ashley; Metcalf, Jessica L; Song, Sejin; Prithiviraj, Bharath; Palmer, Brent E; Knight, Rob

2011-01-01

Advances in DNA sequencing have allowed us to characterize microbial communities—including those associated with the human body—at a broader range of spatial and temporal scales than ever before. We can now answer fundamental questions that were previously inaccessible and use well-tested ecological theories to gain insight into changes in the microbiome that are associated with normal development and human disease. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the ecosystems associated with our body follow trends identified in communities at other sites and scales, and thus studies of the microbiome benefit from ecological insight. Here, we assess human microbiome research in the context of ecological principles and models, focusing on diversity, biological drivers of community structure, spatial patterning and temporal dynamics, and suggest key directions for future research that will bring us closer to the goal of building predictive models for personalized medicine. PMID:21720391

HIV/AIDS and tourism in the Caribbean: an ecological systems perspective.

PubMed

Padilla, Mark B; Guilamo-Ramos, Vincent; Bouris, Alida; Reyes, Armando Matiz

2010-01-01

The Caribbean has the highest HIV rates outside of sub-Saharan Africa. In recent decades, tourism has become the most important Caribbean industry. Studies suggest that tourism areas are epicenters of demographic and social changes linked to HIV risk, such as transactional sex, elevated alcohol and substance use, and internal migration. Despite this, no formative HIV-prevention studies have examined tourism areas as ecologies that heighten HIV vulnerability. HIV/AIDS research needs to place emphasis on the ecological context of sexual vulnerability in tourism areas and develop multilevel interventions that are sensitive to this context. From our review and integration of a broad literature across the social and health sciences, we argue for an ecological approach to sexual health in Caribbean tourism areas, point to gaps in knowledge, and provide direction for future research.

HIV/AIDS and Tourism in the Caribbean: An Ecological Systems Perspective

PubMed Central

Guilamo-Ramos, Vincent; Bouris, Alida; Reyes, Armando Matiz

2010-01-01

The Caribbean has the highest HIV rates outside of sub-Saharan Africa. In recent decades, tourism has become the most important Caribbean industry. Studies suggest that tourism areas are epicenters of demographic and social changes linked to HIV risk, such as transactional sex, elevated alcohol and substance use, and internal migration. Despite this, no formative HIV-prevention studies have examined tourism areas as ecologies that heighten HIV vulnerability. HIV/AIDS research needs to place emphasis on the ecological context of sexual vulnerability in tourism areas and develop multilevel interventions that are sensitive to this context. From our review and integration of a broad literature across the social and health sciences, we argue for an ecological approach to sexual health in Caribbean tourism areas, point to gaps in knowledge, and provide direction for future research. PMID:19910343

Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science.

PubMed

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2011-05-07

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.

Systems approaches for coastal hazard assessment and resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hagen, Scott C.; Passeri, Davina L.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; DeLorme, Denise E.; Yoskowitz, David

2017-01-01

The framework presented herein supports a changing paradigm in the approaches used by coastal researchers, engineers, and social scientists to model the impacts of climate change and sea level rise (SLR) in particular along low-gradient coastal landscapes. Use of a System of Systems (SoS) approach to the coastal dynamics of SLR is encouraged to capture the nonlinear feedbacks and dynamic responses of the bio-geo-physical coastal environment to SLR, while assessing the social, economic, and ecologic impacts. The SoS approach divides the coastal environment into smaller subsystems such as morphology, ecology, and hydrodynamics. Integrated models are used to assess the dynamic responses of subsystems to SLR; these models account for complex interactions and feedbacks among individual systems, which provides a more comprehensive evaluation of the future of the coastal system as a whole. Results from the integrated models can be used to inform economic services valuations, in which economic activity is connected back to bio-geo-physical changes in the environment due to SLR by identifying changes in the coastal subsystems, linking them to the understanding of the economic system and assessing the direct and indirect impacts to the economy. These assessments can be translated from scientific data to application through various stakeholder engagement mechanisms, which provide useful feedback for accountability as well as benchmarks and diagnostic insights for future planning. This allows regional and local coastal managers to create more comprehensive policies to reduce the risks associated with future SLR and enhance coastal resilience.

Designing a 'safe and just operating space' for the Chilika lagoon fishery of the Mahanadi delta, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Gregory; Dearing, John

2017-04-01

Annual fish production from the Chilika lagoon is worth US25-million/year, underpinning the livelihoods of 35,000 fishers and 200,000 secondary dependants. The system has a legacy of collapse, transitioning from annual production rates of 9000 tonnes to 1300 tonnes during the late-1980s, with resulting livelihood losses triggering the first recorded instances of economic migration from Chilika. Despite engineered recovery since 2000, the future persistence of Chilika's resource stock is uncertain. Climate change may strengthen freshwater and sediment delivery, promoting ecohydrological degradation through tidal outlet sedimentation, reduced salinity and freshwater weed growth. Simultaneously, human population growth, fleet motorisation and consumption demands threaten overexploitation driven collapse. These critical social-ecological drivers and feedbacks are projected into future by integrating system dynamics modelling with Monte Carlo inputs. Sustainable pathways are identified from outputs producing social-ecologically desirable futures, such as mid-century catch equalling maximum sustainable yield. The 'safe and just operating space' metaphor is regionalised by the limits of sustainable trajectories, such as the permissible number of active fishers, motorised boats and juvenile catch under alternative governance scenarios. These critical thresholds suggest policy-relevant guardrails for the sustainable governance of Chilika, in order to avoid regional productivity collapse, ecological degradation and livelihood losses. Benefits and trade-offs of alternative governance approaches are also discussed, aiding the optimisation of future regulatory decision-making.

Integrating indigenous ecological and scientific hydro-geological knowledge using a Bayesian Network in the context of water resource development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liedloff, A. C.; Woodward, E. L.; Harrington, G. A.; Jackson, S.

2013-08-01

The contributions indigenous ecological knowledge can make to better inform water management decisions are currently undervalued leading to an underrepresentation of indigenous values in water planning and policy. This paper outlines a novel approach in which indigenous ecological knowledge informs cause and effect relationships between species and aquatic habitats to promote broader ecosystem understanding. A Bayesian Network was developed to synthesise the seasonal aquatic knowledge of a group of Gooniyandi Aboriginal language speakers, including fish species’ availability, condition and required habitat, and integrate it with hydrogeological understanding obtained from research undertaken in a stretch of the Fitzroy River, Western Australia. This river system, like most in northern Australia, is highly seasonal and entirely dependent upon groundwater for maintaining flow during prolonged dry seasons. We found that potential changes in river flow rates caused by future water resource development, such as groundwater extraction and surface water diversion, may have detrimental effects on the ability to catch the high value aquatic food species such as Barramundi and Sawfish, but also that species such as Black Bream may benefit. These findings result from changes in availability of habitats at times when Gooniyandi understanding shows they are important for providing aquatic resources in good condition. This study raises awareness of the potential outcomes of future water management and stimulates communication between indigenous people, the scientific community and water managers by developing a model of indigenous understanding from which to predict eco-hydrological change.

Risk management for optimal land use planning integrating ecosystem services values: A case study in Changsha, Middle China.

PubMed

Liang, Jie; Zhong, Minzhou; Zeng, Guangming; Chen, Gaojie; Hua, Shanshan; Li, Xiaodong; Yuan, Yujie; Wu, Haipeng; Gao, Xiang

2017-02-01

Land-use change has direct impact on ecosystem services and alters ecosystem services values (ESVs). Ecosystem services analysis is beneficial for land management and decisions. However, the application of ESVs for decision-making in land use decisions is scarce. In this paper, a method, integrating ESVs to balance future ecosystem-service benefit and risk, is developed to optimize investment in land for ecological conservation in land use planning. Using ecological conservation in land use planning in Changsha as an example, ESVs is regarded as the expected ecosystem-service benefit. And uncertainty of land use change is regarded as risk. This method can optimize allocation of investment in land to improve ecological benefit. The result shows that investment should be partial to Liuyang City to get higher benefit. The investment should also be shifted from Liuyang City to other regions to reduce risk. In practice, lower limit and upper limit for weight distribution, which affects optimal outcome and selection of investment allocation, should be set in investment. This method can reveal the optimal spatial allocation of investment to maximize the expected ecosystem-service benefit at a given level of risk or minimize risk at a given level of expected ecosystem-service benefit. Our results of optimal analyses highlight tradeoffs between future ecosystem-service benefit and uncertainty of land use change in land use decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climatic changes, bioclimatic stages and flooding durations in relation with public health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoz, A.; Roumieux, C.; Trouillet, A.

2009-12-01

Climatic Changes, and more generaly Global Changes, play a major role in environmental modifications related to public health. Modifications of temperatures, precipitations... influence ecological habitats. These habitats can be adapted for some animals species, responsable for predestinate pandemics. Mosquitoes and birds represent for certain pandemics the essential elements of virus transmission. Abundance of mosquitoes and birds species, is heavily conditioned to favorable ecological habitats, flooded areas extent and their variations. The study we carried, has been done in South of France. We show present status of ecological habitats and flooded durations in relation with actual climat. We have refine mediterranean spatial knowledge in mediterranean basin with actual data. We show evolution of climat and consequences for bioclimatic stages, using world clim data and IPCC scenarii. We reach environment impact for certain virus like West Nile virus. This virus affects birds, horses and hands up to men (e.g.West Nile virus appeared in 1999 in USA, between 1999 and 2007 : 27 000 human cases including 1 050 deaths). Presence of the virus is conditioned by different factors, primarily including vector distribution (mosquitoes). We show how it’s possible to localise favorable areas for the virus and to predict its future expansion areas. We present maps of the possibilities for future concerning previsions of bioclimatic steps variations. Thanks to the latest remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques. Our maps may be used as precious tools to help decision makers when faced with mosquito related problems.

Challenges of reforestation in a water limited world under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mátyás, Csaba; Sun, Ge

2014-05-01

The debate on the ecological benefits of planted forests at the sensitive lower edge of the closed forest belt (at the "xeric limits") is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously predominantly occupied by grassland or agriculture can dramatically alter the energy and water balance at multiple scales. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts under future climate change and variability due to its high ecohydrological sensitivity. The study investigates some of the relevant aspects of the ecological and climatic role of plantation forests and potential impacts at the dryland edges of the temperate zone, using case studies from three countries/regions on three continents. We found that, contrary to popular expectations, the effect of forest cover on regional climate might be limited and the influence of reforestation on water resources might turn into negative. Planted forests generally reduce stream flow and lower groundwater table level because of higher water use than previous land cover types. Increased evaporation potential due to global warming and/or extreme drought events likely reduce areas that are appropriate for tree growth and forest establishment. Ecologically conscious forest policy on management, silviculture and reforestation planning requires the consideration of local hydrologic conditions, future climatic conditions, and also of non-forest alternatives of land use. Keywords: drylands, xeric limits, trailing limits, ecohydrology, climate forcing, land use change, forest policy

Human adaptation responses to a rapidly changing Arctic: A research context for building system resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapin, T.; Brinkman, T. J.

2016-12-01

Although human behavior accounts for more uncertainty in future trajectories in climate change than do biophysical processes, most climate-change research fails to include human actions in research design and implementation. This is well-illustrated in the Arctic. At the global scale, arctic processes strongly influence the strength of biophysical feedbacks between global human emissions and the rate of climate warming. However, most human actions in the arctic have little effect on these feedbacks, so research can contribute most effectively to reduction in arctic warming through improved understanding of the strength of arctic-global biophysical feedbacks, as in NASA's ABoVE program, and its effective communication to policy makers and the public. In contrast, at the local to regional scale within the arctic, human actions may influence the ecological and societal consequences of arctic warming, so research benefits from active stakeholder engagement in research design and implementation. Human communities and other stakeholders (government and NGOs) respond heterogeneously to socioeconomic and environmental change, so research that documents the range of historical and current adaptive responses to change provides insights on the resilience (flexibility of future options) of social-ecological processes in the arctic. Alaskan communities have attempted a range of adaptive responses to coastal erosion (e.g., seasonal migration, protection in place, relocation), wildfire (fire suppression to use of fire to manage wildlife habitat or landscape heterogeneity), declining sea ice (e.g., new hunting technology, sea ice observations and predictions), and changes in wildlife and fish availability (e.g., switch to harvest of alternative species, harvest times, or harvest locations). Research that draws on both traditional and western knowledge facilitates adaptation and predictions of the likely societal consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Effective inclusion of these actors in the research process could strongly influence the resilience of arctic social-ecological systems to climate change.

Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, C. W.; Lane, D.; Buddemeier, R. W.; Ready, R. C.; Shouse, K. C.; Martinich, J.

2012-12-01

Global climate change presents a two-pronged threat to coral reef ecosystems: increasing sea surface temperatures will increase the likelihood of episodic bleaching events, while increasing ocean carbon dioxide concentrations will change the carbonate chemistry that drives coral growth. Because coral reefs have important societal as well as ecological benefits, climate change mitigation policies that ameliorate these impacts may create substantial economic value. We present a model that evaluates both the ecological and the economic impacts of climate change on coral reefs in the United States. We use a coral reef mortality and bleaching model to project future coral reef declines under a range of climate change policy scenarios for south Florida, Puerto Rico and Hawaii. Using a benefits transfer approach, the outputs from the physical model are then used to quantify the economic impacts of these coral reef declines for each of these regions. We find that differing climate change trajectories create substantial changes in projected coral cover and value for Hawaii, but that the ecological and economic benefits of more stringent emissions scenarios are less clear for Florida and Puerto Rico. Overall, our results indicate that the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policies may be region-specific, but that these policies could result in a net increase of nearly $10 billion in economic value from coral reef-related recreational activities alone, over the 21st century.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems. PMID:26505637

Promoting Education for Sustainability in a Vaishnava (Hindu) Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chauhan, Sheila; Rama das, Sita; Rita, Natalia; Haigh, Martin

2009-01-01

Education for a sustainable future aspires to increase pro-environmental behavior. This evaluates a project designed to help a British Vaishnava congregation reduce their ecological footprint by linking "Karma to Climate Change." It employs a tented educational experience fielded at major Hindu Festivals. Participants are guided through…

Application of landscape models to alternative futures analyses

Treesearch

Anne C. Neale; K. Bruce Jones; Maliha S. Nash; Rick D. Van Remortel; James D. Wickham; Kurt H. Riitters; Robert V. O' neil

2003-01-01

Scientists and environmental managers alike are concerned about broadscale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on environmental and economic end points, such as water quality and quantity, species habitat, productivity, erosion potential, recreational value, and overall ecological health (Rapport et al., 1998). They also are interested...

SPATIAL PATTERN OF FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF STREAM EUTROPHICATION IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OF THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

Spatially explicit identification of changes in ecological conditions over large areas is key to targeting and prioritizing areas for environmental protection and restoration by managers at watershed, basin, and regional scales. A critical limitation to this point has been the d...

Microclimate and ecological threshold responses in a warming and wetting experiment following whole-tree harvest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecosystem climate manipulation experiments (ECMEs) are a key tool for predicting the effects of climate on ecosystems. However, the strength of inferences drawn from these experiments depends on whether the manipulated conditions mimic future climate changes. While ECMEs have examined mean tempera...

Rich and Vibrant Colours: 25 Years of Adult Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Budd L.

1992-01-01

Reviews the author's experiences in adult education over a quarter century; cites obstacles to adult education's role in social change and the lag in theoretical development. Depicts the future of adult education in response to three challenges: internationalization of the market, ecological awareness, and the theoretical and intellectual…

Human-induced marine ecological degradation: micropaleontological perspectives

PubMed Central

Yasuhara, Moriaki; Hunt, Gene; Breitburg, Denise; Tsujimoto, Akira; Katsuki, Kota

2012-01-01

We analyzed published downcore microfossil records from 150 studies and reinterpreted them from an ecological degradation perspective to address the following critical but still imperfectly answered questions: (1) How is the timing of human-induced degradation of marine ecosystems different among regions? (2) What are the dominant causes of human-induced marine ecological degradation? (3) How can we better document natural variability and thereby avoid the problem of shifting baselines of comparison as degradation progresses over time? The results indicated that: (1) ecological degradation in marine systems began significantly earlier in Europe and North America (∼1800s) compared with Asia (post-1900) due to earlier industrialization in European and North American countries, (2) ecological degradation accelerated globally in the late 20th century due to post-World War II economic growth, (3) recovery from the degraded state in late 20th century following various restoration efforts and environmental regulations occurred only in limited localities. Although complex in detail, typical signs of ecological degradation were diversity decline, dramatic changes in total abundance, decrease in benthic and/or sensitive species, and increase in planktic, resistant, toxic, and/or introduced species. The predominant cause of degradation detected in these microfossil records was nutrient enrichment and the resulting symptoms of eutrophication, including hypoxia. Other causes also played considerable roles in some areas, including severe metal pollution around mining sites, water acidification by acidic wastewater, and salinity changes from construction of causeways, dikes, and channels, deforestation, and land clearance. Microfossils enable reconstruction of the ecological history of the past 102–103 years or even more, and, in conjunction with statistical modeling approaches using independent proxy records of climate and human-induced environmental changes, future research will enable workers to better address Shifting Baseline Syndrome and separate anthropogenic impacts from background natural variability. PMID:23301187

Human-induced marine ecological degradation: micropaleontological perspectives.

PubMed

Yasuhara, Moriaki; Hunt, Gene; Breitburg, Denise; Tsujimoto, Akira; Katsuki, Kota

2012-12-01

We analyzed published downcore microfossil records from 150 studies and reinterpreted them from an ecological degradation perspective to address the following critical but still imperfectly answered questions: (1) How is the timing of human-induced degradation of marine ecosystems different among regions? (2) What are the dominant causes of human-induced marine ecological degradation? (3) How can we better document natural variability and thereby avoid the problem of shifting baselines of comparison as degradation progresses over time? The results indicated that: (1) ecological degradation in marine systems began significantly earlier in Europe and North America (∼1800s) compared with Asia (post-1900) due to earlier industrialization in European and North American countries, (2) ecological degradation accelerated globally in the late 20th century due to post-World War II economic growth, (3) recovery from the degraded state in late 20th century following various restoration efforts and environmental regulations occurred only in limited localities. Although complex in detail, typical signs of ecological degradation were diversity decline, dramatic changes in total abundance, decrease in benthic and/or sensitive species, and increase in planktic, resistant, toxic, and/or introduced species. The predominant cause of degradation detected in these microfossil records was nutrient enrichment and the resulting symptoms of eutrophication, including hypoxia. Other causes also played considerable roles in some areas, including severe metal pollution around mining sites, water acidification by acidic wastewater, and salinity changes from construction of causeways, dikes, and channels, deforestation, and land clearance. Microfossils enable reconstruction of the ecological history of the past 10(2)-10(3) years or even more, and, in conjunction with statistical modeling approaches using independent proxy records of climate and human-induced environmental changes, future research will enable workers to better address Shifting Baseline Syndrome and separate anthropogenic impacts from background natural variability.

Quaternary palaeoecology and nature conservation: a general review with examples from the neotropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Rull, V.; Montoya, E.; Safont, E.

2011-09-01

Palaeoecology, as an ecological discipline, is able to provide relevant inputs for conservation science and ecosystem management, especially for issues involving long-term processes, such as ecological succession, migration, adaptation, microevolution, and extinction. This use of palaeoecology has been noted for several decades, and it has become widely accepted, especially in the frame of ongoing and near-future global warming and its potential biotic consequences. Selected palaeoecological insights of interest for conservation include the following: 1) species respond in an individualistic manner to environmental changes that lead to changes in community composition, suggesting that future ecosystems would have no modern analogues; 2) in the short-term, acclimation is more likely a response of species that are expected to persist in the face of global warming, but the possibility of evolutionary change linked to the existence of pre-adapted genomes cannot be dismissed; 3) species unable to acclimate or adapt to new conditions should migrate or become extinct, which has been observed in past records; 4) current extinction estimates for the near-future should be revised in light of palaeoecological information, which shows that spatial reorganisations and persistence in suitable microrefugia have been more common than extinction during the Quaternary; 5) biotic responses to environmental changes do not necessarily follow the rules of equilibrium dynamics but depend on complex and non-linear processes that lead to unexpected "surprises", which are favoured by the occurrence of thresholds and amplifying positive feedbacks; 6) threshold responses can cause the movement of ecosystems among several potentially stable states depending on their resilience, or the persistence of transient states; 7) species and their communities have responded to environmental changes in a heterogeneous fashion according to the local and regional features, which is crucial for present and future management policies; 8) the global warming that occurred at the end of the Younger Drays cold reversal (ca 13.0 to 11.5 cal kyr BP) took place at similar rates and magnitudes compared to the global warming projected for the 21st century, thus becoming a powerful past analogue for prediction modelling; 9) environmental changes have acted upon ecosystems in an indirect way by modifying human behaviour and activities that, in turn, have had the potential of changing the environment and enhancing the disturbance effects by synergistic processes involving positive feedbacks; 10) the collapse of past civilisations under climate stress has been chiefly the result of inadequate management procedures and weaknesses in social organisation, which would be a warning for the present uncontrolled growth of human population, the consequent overexploitation of natural resources, and the continuous increase of greenhouse gas emissions; 11) the impact of fire as a decisive ecological agent has increased since the rise of humans, especially during the last millennia, but anthropic fires were not dominant over natural fires until the 19th century; 12) fire has been an essential element in the development and ecological dynamics of many ecosystems, and it has significantly affected the worldwide biome distribution; 13) climate-fire-human synergies that amplify the effects of climate, or fire alone, have been important in the shaping of modern landscapes. These general paleoecological observations and others that have emerged from case studies of particular problems can improve the preservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Nature conservation requires the full consideration of palaeoecological knowledge in an ecological context, along with the synergistic cooperation of palaeoecologists with neoecologists, anthropologists, and conservation scientists.

The big data-big model (BDBM) challenges in ecological research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.

2015-12-01

The field of ecology has become a big-data science in the past decades due to development of new sensors used in numerous studies in the ecological community. Many sensor networks have been established to collect data. For example, satellites, such as Terra and OCO-2 among others, have collected data relevant on global carbon cycle. Thousands of field manipulative experiments have been conducted to examine feedback of terrestrial carbon cycle to global changes. Networks of observations, such as FLUXNET, have measured land processes. In particular, the implementation of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), which is designed to network different kinds of sensors at many locations over the nation, will generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The raw data from sensors from those networks offer an unprecedented opportunity for accelerating advances in our knowledge of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, testing ecological theory, and forecasting changes in ecosystem services. Currently, ecologists do not have the infrastructure in place to synthesize massive yet heterogeneous data into resources for decision support. It is urgent to develop an ecological forecasting system that can make the best use of multiple sources of data to assess long-term biosphere change and anticipate future states of ecosystem services at regional and continental scales. Forecasting relies on big models that describe major processes that underlie complex system dynamics. Ecological system models, despite great simplification of the real systems, are still complex in order to address real-world problems. For example, Community Land Model (CLM) incorporates thousands of processes related to energy balance, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. Integration of massive data from multiple big data sources with complex models has to tackle Big Data-Big Model (BDBM) challenges. Those challenges include interoperability of multiple, heterogeneous data sets; intractability of structural complexity of big models; equifinality of model structure selection and parameter estimation; and computational demand of global optimization with Big Models.

Refining climate change projections for organisms with low dispersal abilities: a case study of the Caspian whip snake.

PubMed

Sahlean, Tiberiu C; Gherghel, Iulian; Papeş, Monica; Strugariu, Alexandru; Zamfirescu, Ştefan R

2014-01-01

Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as "costs" to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (P<0.05) and recovered the currently known distribution of D. caspius. Models projected on future climatic conditions using Maxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species' dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions.

Using a Multi-Method Approach to Examine Social-Ecological Vulnerability to Climate Change and Natural Resource Policies on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, J.; Hopping, K. A.; Yeh, E.; Nyima, Y.; Galvin, K.; Boone, R.; Dorje, T.; Ojima, D. S.

2012-12-01

Pastoralists and ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau are facing a suite of novel stresses. Temperatures are increasing several times more than the global average. The frequency and severity of severe snowstorms, which lead to critical losses of livestock, are also increasing. Pastoralists are also experiencing changes to their livelihood activities, including reduced mobility and severe grazing restrictions. We are using interdisciplinary frameworks and methods that integrate results from a multifactor ecological experiment, household interviews, remote sensing, and a coupled ecosystem and household decision-making model to examine herder and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events (snow disasters) within the context of changing natural resource management policies in China. The fully factorial ecological experiment includes two climate changes (warming and spring snow additions) and two types of grazing (yak and pika) that are being affected by current policy. We established the experiment in 2008 within the Tibet Autonomous Region. We are monitoring microclimate, vegetation, nutrient availability, ecosystem carbon fluxes and stable isotope signatures of select plant species. Through this experiment, we are investigating the sensitivity of the system, whether it can cross critical thresholds, and how resilient this system may be to predicted future climate and land use changes. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews on indigenous knowledge and vulnerability complement the ecological experimental work. We are asking herders about climate and ecological change and their drivers and are also conducting interviews on vulnerability to snow disasters across a three site, 300-500mm precipitation gradient. We are using remote sensing to identify biophysical landscape change over time. To integrate our ecological and social findings, we are coupling the Savanna ecosystem model to the DECUMA agent-based pastoral household model. Our results to date from the experiment and the indigenous knowledge study suggest that Kobresia pygmaea, the dominant plant species and the primary grazing resource, is vulnerable to warming. Moreover, several lines of evidence suggest that warming is causing delayed spring phenology, with important ecosystem and livelihood implications. Herders are observing climatic and ecological changes, knowledge which is important for adaptation, but people whose livelihoods are most directly derived from the rangelands, those situated at higher elevations, and those who are more mobile across the landscape are most attuned to these changes. These results suggest that rangeland degradation and delayed spring phenology are occurring, and that climate warming may be responsible for these changes. While additional snow may improve ecological conditions, the warming-induced degradation may make the social-ecological system more vulnerable to large snowstorm events. Our findings suggest that climate adaptation strategies should address the effects of both climate warming and the changing nature of extreme weather events and should also encourage land use policies that will maintain these systems under change. Moreover, policies that encourage mobility and rangeland-based livelihoods will enhance adaptation to climate change.

Evaluation and Analysis of Eco-Security in Environmentally Sensitive Areas Using an Emergy Ecological Footprint.

PubMed

Chen, Han-Shen

2017-01-30

In this paper, the overall ecological and environmental sustainability in the Cing-Jing region in Taiwan is examined. As land use and cover change has been found to be an important analysis method, an emergy ecological footprint model was applied and the eco-security assessed to ensure authorities maintain a balance between ecological preservation and tourism development. While the ecological environment in the Cing-Jing region from 2008 to 2014 was found to be within safe levels, all related indices had increased considerably. A Grey model was used to predict the 2015-2024 ecological carrying capacities, from which it was found that there is expected to be a large increase in per capita ecological footprints (EFs), meaning that in the future there is going to be a larger ecological deficit and a higher ecological pressure index (EFI), with the eco-security predicted to reach a Grade 2 intermediate level in 2022. As the Cing-Jing region is predicted to become ecologically unsustainable, local, regional, and national governments need to implement regulations to strictly control the land use in the Cing-Jing region. This study demonstrated that emergy EF (EEF) theory application can give objective guidance to decision-makers to ensure that recreational non-urban eco-security can be maintained at a safe level.

Historical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology.

PubMed

Rose, Kevin C; Graves, Rose A; Hansen, Winslow D; Harvey, Brian J; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Wood, Stephen A; Ziter, Carly; Turner, Monica G

2017-02-01

Macrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space-time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are "expanding", "shrinking", "speeding up" and "slowing down" ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Evaluation and Analysis of Eco-Security in Environmentally Sensitive Areas Using an Emergy Ecological Footprint

PubMed Central

Chen, Han-Shen

2017-01-01

In this paper, the overall ecological and environmental sustainability in the Cing-Jing region in Taiwan is examined. As land use and cover change has been found to be an important analysis method, an emergy ecological footprint model was applied and the eco-security assessed to ensure authorities maintain a balance between ecological preservation and tourism development. While the ecological environment in the Cing-Jing region from 2008 to 2014 was found to be within safe levels, all related indices had increased considerably. A Grey model was used to predict the 2015–2024 ecological carrying capacities, from which it was found that there is expected to be a large increase in per capita ecological footprints (EFs), meaning that in the future there is going to be a larger ecological deficit and a higher ecological pressure index (EFI), with the eco-security predicted to reach a Grade 2 intermediate level in 2022. As the Cing-Jing region is predicted to become ecologically unsustainable, local, regional, and national governments need to implement regulations to strictly control the land use in the Cing-Jing region. This study demonstrated that emergy EF (EEF) theory application can give objective guidance to decision-makers to ensure that recreational non-urban eco-security can be maintained at a safe level. PMID:28146086

Simulation of Regionally Ecological Land Based on a Cellular Automation Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-01-01

Ecological land is like the “liver” of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem. PMID:23066410

Simulation of regionally ecological land based on a cellular automation model: a case study of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-08-01

Ecological land is like the "liver" of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

Climate change and an invasive, tropical milkweed: an ecological trap for monarch butterflies.

PubMed

Faldyn, Matthew J; Hunter, Mark D; Elderd, Bret D

2018-05-01

While it is well established that climate change affects species distributions and abundances, the impacts of climate change on species interactions has not been extensively studied. This is particularly important for specialists whose interactions are tightly linked, such as between the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) and the plant genus Asclepias, on which it depends. We used open-top chambers (OTCs) to increase temperatures in experimental plots and placed either nonnative Asclepias curassavica or native A. incarnata in each plot along with monarch larvae. We found, under current climatic conditions, adult monarchs had higher survival and mass when feeding on A. curassavica. However, under future conditions, monarchs fared much worse on A. curassavica. The decrease in adult survival and mass was associated with increasing cardenolide concentrations under warmer temperatures. Increased temperatures alone reduced monarch forewing length. Cardenolide concentrations in A. curassavica may have transitioned from beneficial to detrimental as temperature increased. Thus, the increasing cardenolide concentrations may have pushed the larvae over a tipping point into an ecological trap; whereby past environmental cues associated with increased fitness give misleading information. Given the ubiquity of specialist plant-herbivore interactions, the potential for such ecological traps to emerge as temperatures increase may have far-reaching consequences. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

2017-11-01

In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades.

PubMed

Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

2017-11-01

In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

Tracking a Medically Important Spider: Climate Change, Ecological Niche Modeling, and the Brown Recluse (Loxosceles reclusa)

PubMed Central

Saupe, Erin E.; Papes, Monica; Selden, Paul A.; Vetter, Richard S.

2011-01-01

Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae), causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses. PMID:21464985

CO2 studies remain key to understanding a future world.

PubMed

Becklin, Katie M; Walker, S Michael; Way, Danielle A; Ward, Joy K

2017-04-01

Contents 34 I. 34 II. 36 III. 37 IV. 37 V. 38 38 References 38 SUMMARY: Characterizing plant responses to past, present and future changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) is critical for understanding and predicting the consequences of global change over evolutionary and ecological timescales. Previous CO 2 studies have provided great insights into the effects of rising [CO 2 ] on leaf-level gas exchange, carbohydrate dynamics and plant growth. However, scaling CO 2 effects across biological levels, especially in field settings, has proved challenging. Moreover, many questions remain about the fundamental molecular mechanisms driving plant responses to [CO 2 ] and other global change factors. Here we discuss three examples of topics in which significant questions in CO 2 research remain unresolved: (1) mechanisms of CO 2 effects on plant developmental transitions; (2) implications of rising [CO 2 ] for integrated plant-water dynamics and drought tolerance; and (3) CO 2 effects on symbiotic interactions and eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Addressing these and other key questions in CO 2 research will require collaborations across scientific disciplines and new approaches that link molecular mechanisms to complex physiological and ecological interactions across spatiotemporal scales. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River basin: habitat implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Barnhart, B. L.; Knouft, J. H.; Stewart, I. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Letsinger, S. L.; Whittaker, G. W.

2014-12-01

Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitats in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species' responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled general circulation model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature for the late 21st century at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River basin (CRB). On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil water flow, and groundwater inflow, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the ecological province and season. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa.

Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River Basin: biological implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Barnhart, B. L.; Knouft, J. H.; Stewart, I. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Letsinger, S. L.; Whittaker, G. W.

2014-06-01

Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitat in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled General Circulation Model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River Basin. On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil flow, and groundwater, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the season and ecological province. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by non-migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically-explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa.

Operationalizing Network Theory for Ecosystem Service Assessments.

PubMed

Dee, Laura E; Allesina, Stefano; Bonn, Aletta; Eklöf, Anna; Gaines, Steven D; Hines, Jes; Jacob, Ute; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Possingham, Hugh; Schröter, Matthias; Thompson, Ross M

2017-02-01

Managing ecosystems to provide ecosystem services in the face of global change is a pressing challenge for policy and science. Predicting how alternative management actions and changing future conditions will alter services is complicated by interactions among components in ecological and socioeconomic systems. Failure to understand those interactions can lead to detrimental outcomes from management decisions. Network theory that integrates ecological and socioeconomic systems may provide a path to meeting this challenge. While network theory offers promising approaches to examine ecosystem services, few studies have identified how to operationalize networks for managing and assessing diverse ecosystem services. We propose a framework for how to use networks to assess how drivers and management actions will directly and indirectly alter ecosystem services. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Precision Problem in Conservation and Restoration.

PubMed

Hiers, J Kevin; Jackson, Stephen T; Hobbs, Richard J; Bernhardt, Emily S; Valentine, Leonie E

2016-11-01

Within the varied contexts of environmental policy, conservation of imperilled species populations, and restoration of damaged habitats, an emphasis on idealized optimal conditions has led to increasingly specific targets for management. Overly-precise conservation targets can reduce habitat variability at multiple scales, with unintended consequences for future ecological resilience. We describe this dilemma in the context of endangered species management, stream restoration, and climate-change adaptation. Inappropriate application of conservation targets can be expensive, with marginal conservation benefit. Reduced habitat variability can limit options for managers trying to balance competing objectives with limited resources. Conservation policies should embrace habitat variability, expand decision-space appropriately, and support adaptation to local circumstances to increase ecological resilience in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calling for an ecological approach to studying climate change and infectious diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, Kevin D.

2009-01-01

My Concepts and Synthesis paper (Lafferty 2009),which inspired this Forum, echoed the premise that earlyreviews about climate change exaggerated claims thatinfectious diseases will increase in the future (Randolph2009). The paper sparked five well-reasoned commen-taries from ecologists with considerable expertise ininfectious diseases (Dobson 2009, Harvell et al. 2009,Ostfeld 2009, Pascual and Bouma 2009, Randolph2009). These reviews illustrate several examples andcase studies which corr elate i ncreases in infectiousdisease with existing climate variation, though alterna-tive explanations exist for many of these patterns(Dobson 2009, Harvell et al. 2009, Ostfeld 2009, Pascualand Bouma 2009, Randolph 2009). A common messageis that an ecological approach is increasingly relevant tothe challenging topic of infectious disease.

A 15,000 year record of vegetation and climate change from a treeline lake in the Rocky Mountains, Wyoming, USA

Treesearch

Scott A. Mensing; John L. Korfmacher; Thomas Minckley; Robert C. Musselman

2012-01-01

Future climate projections predict warming at high elevations that will impact treeline species, but complex topographic relief in mountains complicates ecologic response, and we have a limited number of long-term studies examining vegetation change related to climate. In this study, pollen and conifer stomata were analyzed from a 2.3 m sediment core extending to 15,...

Interactive effects of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems in the United States: current understanding and future scenarios

Treesearch

Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Mark Fenn; Steven McNulty; Fengming Yuan; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles Driscoll; Tom Meixner

2013-01-01

A review of the current status of air pollution and climate change (CC) in the United States from a perspective of their impacts on forest ecosystems is provided. Ambient ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) deposition have important and widespread ecological impacts in U.S. forests. Effects of sulphurous (S) air pollutants and other trace pollutants have...

Climate change, agricultural insecticide exposure, and risk for freshwater communities.

PubMed

Kattwinkel, Mira; Kühne, Jan-Valentin; Foit, Kaarina; Liess, Matthias

2011-09-01

Climate change exerts direct effects on ecosystems but has additional indirect effects due to changes in agricultural practice. These include the increased use of pesticides, changes in the areas that are cultivated, and changes in the crops cultivated. It is well known that pesticides, and in particular insecticides, affect aquatic ecosystems adversely. To implement effective mitigation measures it is necessary to identify areas that are affected currently and those that will be affected in the future. As a consequence, we predicted potential exposure to insecticide (insecticide runoff potential, RP) under current conditions (1990) and under a model scenario of future climate and land use (2090) using a spatially explicit model on a continental scale, with a focus on Europe. Space-for-time substitution was used to predict future levels of insecticide application, intensity of agricultural land use, and cultivated crops. To assess the indirect effects of climate change, evaluation of the risk of insecticide exposure was based on a trait-based, climate-insensitive indicator system (SPEAR, SPEcies At Risk). To this end, RP and landscape characteristics that are relevant for the recovery of affected populations were combined to estimate the ecological risk (ER) of insecticides for freshwater communities. We predicted a strong increase in the application of, and aquatic exposure to, insecticides under the future scenario, especially in central and northern Europe. This, in turn, will result in a severe increase in ER in these regions. Hence, the proportion of stream sites adjacent to arable land that do not meet the requirements for good ecological status as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive will increase (from 33% to 39% for the EU-25 countries), in particular in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (from 6% to 19%). Such spatially explicit mapping of risk enables the planning of adaptation and mitigation strategies including vegetated buffer strips and nonagricultural recolonization zones along streams.

Ecological genomics meets community-level modelling of biodiversity: mapping the genomic landscape of current and future environmental adaptation.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Keller, Stephen R

2015-01-01

Local adaptation is a central feature of most species occupying spatially heterogeneous environments, and may factor critically in responses to environmental change. However, most efforts to model the response of species to climate change ignore intraspecific variation due to local adaptation. Here, we present a new perspective on spatial modelling of organism-environment relationships that combines genomic data and community-level modelling to develop scenarios regarding the geographic distribution of genomic variation in response to environmental change. Rather than modelling species within communities, we use these techniques to model large numbers of loci across genomes. Using balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera) as a case study, we demonstrate how our framework can accommodate nonlinear responses of loci to environmental gradients. We identify a threshold response to temperature in the circadian clock gene GIGANTEA-5 (GI5), suggesting that this gene has experienced strong local adaptation to temperature. We also demonstrate how these methods can map ecological adaptation from genomic data, including the identification of predicted differences in the genetic composition of populations under current and future climates. Community-level modelling of genomic variation represents an important advance in landscape genomics and spatial modelling of biodiversity that moves beyond species-level assessments of climate change vulnerability. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Stable isotope views on ecosystem function: challenging or challenged?

PubMed

Resco, Víctor; Querejeta, José I; Ogle, Kiona; Voltas, Jordi; Sebastià, Maria-Teresa; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; Linares, Juan C; Moreno-Gutiérrez, Cristina; Herrero, Asier; Carreira, José A; Torres-Cañabate, Patricia; Valladares, Fernando

2010-06-23

Stable isotopes and their potential for detecting various and complex ecosystem processes are attracting an increasing number of scientists. Progress is challenging, particularly under global change scenarios, but some established views have been challenged. The IX meeting of the Spanish Association of Terrestrial Ecology (AAET, Ubeda, 18-22 October 2009) hosted a symposium on the ecology of stable isotopes where the linear mixing model approach of partitioning sinks and sources of carbon and water fluxes within an ecosystem was challenged, and new applications of stable isotopes for the study of plant interactions were evaluated. Discussion was also centred on the need for networks that monitor ecological processes using stable isotopes and key ideas for fostering future research with isotopes.

Stable isotope views on ecosystem function: challenging or challenged?

PubMed Central

Resco, Víctor; Querejeta, José I.; Ogle, Kiona; Voltas, Jordi; Sebastià, Maria-Teresa; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; Linares, Juan C.; Moreno-Gutiérrez, Cristina; Herrero, Asier; Carreira, José A.; Torres-Cañabate, Patricia; Valladares, Fernando

2010-01-01

Stable isotopes and their potential for detecting various and complex ecosystem processes are attracting an increasing number of scientists. Progress is challenging, particularly under global change scenarios, but some established views have been challenged. The IX meeting of the Spanish Association of Terrestrial Ecology (AAET, Úbeda, 18–22 October 2009) hosted a symposium on the ecology of stable isotopes where the linear mixing model approach of partitioning sinks and sources of carbon and water fluxes within an ecosystem was challenged, and new applications of stable isotopes for the study of plant interactions were evaluated. Discussion was also centred on the need for networks that monitor ecological processes using stable isotopes and key ideas for fostering future research with isotopes. PMID:20015858

The microbial diversity, distribution, and ecology of permafrost in China: a review.

PubMed

Hu, Weigang; Zhang, Qi; Tian, Tian; Cheng, Guodong; An, Lizhe; Feng, Huyuan

2015-07-01

Permafrost in China mainly located in high-altitude areas. It represents a unique and suitable ecological niche that can be colonized by abundant microbes. Permafrost microbial community varies across geographically separated locations in China, and some lineages are novel and possible endemic. Besides, Chinese permafrost is a reservoir of functional microbial groups involved in key biogeochemical cycling processes. In future, more work is necessary to determine if these phylogenetic groups detected by DNA-based methods are part of the viable microbial community, and their functional roles and how they potentially respond to climate change. This review summaries recent studies describing microbial biodiversity found in permafrost and associated environments in China, and provides a framework for better understanding the microbial ecology of permafrost.

Genetic Diversity and Ecological Niche Modelling of Wild Barley: Refugia, Large-Scale Post-LGM Range Expansion and Limited Mid-Future Climate Threats?

PubMed Central

Russell, Joanne; van Zonneveld, Maarten; Dawson, Ian K.; Booth, Allan; Waugh, Robbie; Steffenson, Brian

2014-01-01

Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum) in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare). Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR) and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR) markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM) and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s) climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security. PMID:24505252

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

2017-01-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

PubMed Central

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J.A.; Read, Jordan S; Notaro, Michael

2017-01-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes. PMID:28440790

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

2017-04-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Social Ecology, Deep Ecology and the Future of Green Political Thought.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tokar, Brian

1988-01-01

Describes the differences which divide the social ecology movement and the Deep Ecology Movement. Discusses how each views population ecology, politics, natural resources, and ecological living. Calls for a unified ecological movement. (CW)

Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life

PubMed Central

Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A.; Myin-Germeys, Inez

2016-01-01

Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals’ daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. PMID:26707864

Urbanization and stream ecology: Diverse mechanisms of change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roy, Allison; Capps, Krista A.; El-Sabaawi, Rana W.; Jones, Krista L.; Parr, Thomas B.; Ramirez, Alonso; Smith, Robert F.; Walsh, Christopher J.; Wenger, Seth J.

2016-01-01

The field of urban stream ecology has evolved rapidly in the last 3 decades, and it now includes natural scientists from numerous disciplines working with social scientists, landscape planners and designers, and land and water managers to address complex, socioecological problems that have manifested in urban landscapes. Over the last decade, stream ecologists have met 3 times at the Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology (SUSE) to discuss current research, identify knowledge gaps, and promote future research collaborations. The papers in this special series on urbanization and stream ecology include both primary research studies and conceptual synthesis papers spurred from discussions at SUSE in May 2014. The themes of the meeting are reflected in the papers in this series emphasizing global differences in mechanisms and responses of stream ecosystems to urbanization and management solutions in diverse urban streams. Our hope is that this series will encourage continued interdisciplinary and collaborative research to increase the global understanding of urban stream ecology toward stream protection and restoration in urban landscapes.

High evolutionary potential of marine zooplankton

PubMed Central

Peijnenburg, Katja T C A; Goetze, Erica

2013-01-01

Abstract Open ocean zooplankton often have been viewed as slowly evolving species that have limited capacity to respond adaptively to changing ocean conditions. Hence, attention has focused on the ecological responses of zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. We present theoretical arguments that suggest plankton species may respond rapidly to selection on mildly beneficial mutations due to exceptionally large population size, and consider the circumstantial evidence that supports our inference that selection may be particularly important for these species. We also review all primary population genetic studies of open ocean zooplankton and show that genetic isolation can be achieved at the scale of gyre systems in open ocean habitats (100s to 1000s of km). Furthermore, population genetic structure often varies across planktonic taxa, and appears to be linked to the particular ecological requirements of the organism. In combination, these characteristics should facilitate adaptive evolution to distinct oceanographic habitats in the plankton. We conclude that marine zooplankton may be capable of rapid evolutionary as well as ecological responses to changing ocean conditions, and discuss the implications of this view. We further suggest two priority areas for future research to test our hypothesis of high evolutionary potential in open ocean zooplankton, which will require (1) assessing how pervasive selection is in driving population divergence and (2) rigorously quantifying the spatial and temporal scales of population differentiation in the open ocean. Recent attention has focused on the ecological responses of open ocean zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that marine zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. PMID:24567838

Conclusions, synthesis, and future directions: understanding sources of population change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esler, Daniel N.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Eadie, John M.

2015-01-01

The material in this volume reflects the burgeoning interest in sea ducks, both as study species with compelling and unique ecological attributes and as taxa of conservation concern. In this review, we provide perspective on the current state of sea duck knowledge by highlighting key findings in the preceding chapters that are of particular value for understanding or influencing population change. We also introduce a conceptual model that characterizes links among topics covered by individual chapters and places them in the context of demographic responses. Finally, we offer recommendations for areas of future research that we suggest will have importance for understanding and managing sea duck population dynamics.

Tropical grassy biomes: misunderstood, neglected, and under threat.

PubMed

Parr, Catherine L; Lehmann, Caroline E R; Bond, William J; Hoffmann, William A; Andersen, Alan N

2014-04-01

Tropical grassy biomes (TGBs) are globally extensive, provide critical ecosystem services, and influence the earth-atmosphere system. Yet, globally applied biome definitions ignore vegetation characteristics that are critical to their functioning and evolutionary history. Hence, TGB identification is inconsistent and misinterprets the ecological processes governing vegetation structure, with cascading negative consequences for biodiversity. Here, we discuss threats linked to the definition of TGB, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation schemes (REDD+), and enhanced atmospheric CO2, which may facilitate future state shifts. TGB degradation is insidious and less visible than in forested biomes. With human reliance on TGBs and their propensity for woody change, ecology and evolutionary history are fundamental to not only the identification of TGBs, but also their management for future persistence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Ecological effects of bagging on actinidia fruits].

PubMed

Chen, Zhijie; Zhang, Shulian; Znang, Feng; Shi, Yongqiang

2003-11-01

Studies on the ecological effects of bagging on actinidia fruits showed that under different types of bagging, the ecological effects on actinidia fruits were different. Bagging with membrane changed the conditions of temperature and humidity. The inside temperature raised by 0.7-0.9 degree C, humidity increased by 10.8%-11.8%, single fruit weight increased by 25.7%-37.7%, commercial fruit rate raised by 20.4%-30.1%, percentage of diseases and pests decreased by 85.7%-90.2%, and storage property was good. Additionally, the application rate of chemical pesticide was reduce by 72.2%, and the concentration of remnant pesticide inside fruits was only 0.31% mg.kg-1, which was decreased by 90.0%. The chemical pesticide pollution in ecological circumstance and actinidia fruits both reduced. It would be a new way for the rgeen fruits production in the future. Bagging with paper has obvious negative effects.

Climate change and the EU Water Framework Directive: how to deal with indirect effects of changes in hydrology on water quality and ecology?

PubMed

Heerdt, G N J Ter; Schep, S A; Janse, J H; Ouboter, M

2007-01-01

In order to set ecological goals and determine measures for the European Water Framework Directive, the effects of climate change on lake ecosystems should be estimated. It is thought that the complexity of lake ecosystems makes this effect inherently unpredictable. However, models that deal with this complexity are available and well calibrated and tested. In this study we use the ecosystem model PCLake to demonstrate how climate change might affect the ecological status of a shallow peaty lake in 2050. With the model PCLake, combined with a long-term water and nutrient balance, it is possible to describe adequately the present status of the lake. Simulations of future scenarios with increasing precipitation, evaporation and temperature, showed that climate change will lead to higher nutrient loadings. At the same time, it will lead to lower critical loadings. Together this might cause the lake to shift easier from a clear water to a turbid state. The amount of algae, expressed as the concentration Chl-a, will increase, as a consequence turbidity will increase. The outcome of this study; increasing stability of the turbid state of the lake, and thus the need for more drastic measures, is consistent with some earlier studies.

Extent and ecological consequences of hunting in Central African rainforests in the twenty-first century

PubMed Central

Abernethy, K. A.; Coad, L.; Taylor, G.; Lee, M. E.; Maisels, F.

2013-01-01

Humans have hunted wildlife in Central Africa for millennia. Today, however, many species are being rapidly extirpated and sanctuaries for wildlife are dwindling. Almost all Central Africa's forests are now accessible to hunters. Drastic declines of large mammals have been caused in the past 20 years by the commercial trade for meat or ivory. We review a growing body of empirical data which shows that trophic webs are significantly disrupted in the region, with knock-on effects for other ecological functions, including seed dispersal and forest regeneration. Plausible scenarios for land-use change indicate that increasing extraction pressure on Central African forests is likely to usher in new worker populations and to intensify the hunting impacts and trophic cascade disruption already in progress, unless serious efforts are made for hunting regulation. The profound ecological changes initiated by hunting will not mitigate and may even exacerbate the predicted effects of climate change for the region. We hypothesize that, in the near future, the trophic changes brought about by hunting will have a larger and more rapid impact on Central African rainforest structure and function than the direct impacts of climate change on the vegetation. Immediate hunting regulation is vital for the survival of the Central African rainforest ecosystem. PMID:23878333

Extent and ecological consequences of hunting in Central African rainforests in the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Abernethy, K A; Coad, L; Taylor, G; Lee, M E; Maisels, F

2013-01-01

Humans have hunted wildlife in Central Africa for millennia. Today, however, many species are being rapidly extirpated and sanctuaries for wildlife are dwindling. Almost all Central Africa's forests are now accessible to hunters. Drastic declines of large mammals have been caused in the past 20 years by the commercial trade for meat or ivory. We review a growing body of empirical data which shows that trophic webs are significantly disrupted in the region, with knock-on effects for other ecological functions, including seed dispersal and forest regeneration. Plausible scenarios for land-use change indicate that increasing extraction pressure on Central African forests is likely to usher in new worker populations and to intensify the hunting impacts and trophic cascade disruption already in progress, unless serious efforts are made for hunting regulation. The profound ecological changes initiated by hunting will not mitigate and may even exacerbate the predicted effects of climate change for the region. We hypothesize that, in the near future, the trophic changes brought about by hunting will have a larger and more rapid impact on Central African rainforest structure and function than the direct impacts of climate change on the vegetation. Immediate hunting regulation is vital for the survival of the Central African rainforest ecosystem.

Changing landowners, changing ecosystem? Land-ownership motivations as drivers of land management practices.

PubMed

Sorice, Michael G; Kreuter, Urs P; Wilcox, Bradford P; Fox, William E

2014-01-15

Motivations for owning rural land are shifting from an agricultural-production orientation to a preference for natural and cultural amenities. Resultant changes in land management have significant implications for the type and distribution of landscape-level disturbances that affect the delivery of ecosystem services. We examined the relationship between motivations for owning land and the implementation of conservation land management practices by landowners in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. Using a mail survey, we classified landowners into three groups: agricultural production, multiple-objective, and lifestyle-oriented. Cross tabulations of landowner group with past, current, and future use of 12 different land management practices (related to prescribed grazing, vegetation management, restoration, and water management) found that lifestyle-oriented landowners were overall less likely to adopt these practices. To the degree that the cultural landscape of rural lands transitions from production-oriented to lifestyle-oriented landowners, the ecological landscape and the associated flow of ecosystem services will likely change. This poses new challenges to natural resource managers regarding education, outreach, and policy; however, a better understanding about the net ecological consequences of lower rates of adoption of conservation management practices requires consideration of the ecological tradeoffs associated with the changing resource dependency of rural landowners. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: Are major surprises inevitable

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Jacob, Ute; Lindberg, D.R.; Lovvorn, James R.; Monson, Daniel H.; Tinker, M. Tim; Williams, Terrie M.; Wootton, J. Timothy; Carroll, Ian; Emmerson, Mark; Micheli, Fiorenza; Novak, Mark

2008-01-01

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Fine‐resolution conservation planning with limited climate‐change information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L.; Ando , Amy W.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2017-01-01

Climate‐change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation‐related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation‐planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk‐diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate‐change scenarios for carrying out fine‐resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk‐return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate‐change information and full climate‐change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate‐change forecasts such that the best possible risk‐return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate‐change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches.

Ecosystem services from southern African woodlands and their future under global change

PubMed Central

Pritchard, Rose; McNicol, Iain; Owen, Matthew; Fisher, Janet A.; Lehmann, Caroline

2016-01-01

Miombo and mopane woodlands are the dominant land cover in southern Africa. Ecosystem services from these woodlands support the livelihoods of 100 M rural people and 50 M urban dwellers, and others beyond the region. Provisioning services contribute $9 ± 2 billion yr−1 to rural livelihoods; 76% of energy used in the region is derived from woodlands; and traded woodfuels have an annual value of $780 M. Woodlands support much of the region's agriculture through transfers of nutrients to fields and shifting cultivation. Woodlands store 18–24 PgC carbon, and harbour a unique and diverse flora and fauna that provides spiritual succour and attracts tourists. Longstanding processes that will impact service provision are the expansion of croplands (0.1 M km2; 2000–2014), harvesting of woodfuels (93 M tonnes yr−1) and changing access arrangements. Novel, exogenous changes include large-scale land acquisitions (0.07 M km2; 2000–2015), climate change and rising CO2. The net ecological response to these changes is poorly constrained, as they act in different directions, and differentially on trees and grasses, leading to uncertainty in future service provision. Land-use change and socio-political dynamics are likely to be dominant forces of change in the short term, but important land-use dynamics remain unquantified. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502377

Global warming not so harmful for all plants - response of holomycotrophic orchid species for the future climate change.

PubMed

Kolanowska, Marta; Kras, Marta; Lipińska, Monika; Mystkowska, Katarzyna; Szlachetko, Dariusz L; Naczk, Aleksandra M

2017-10-05

Current and expected changes in global climate are major threat for biological diversity affecting individuals, communities and ecosystems. However, there is no general trend in the plants response to the climate change. The aim of present study was to evaluate impact of the future climate changes on the distribution of holomycotrophic orchid species using ecological niche modeling approach. Three different scenarios of future climate changes were tested to obtain the most comprehensive insight in the possible habitat loss of 16 holomycotrophic orchids. The extinction of Cephalanthera austiniae was predicted in all analyses. The coverage of suitable niches of Pogoniopsis schenckii will decrease to 1-30% of its current extent. The reduction of at least 50% of climatic niche of Erythrorchis cassythoides and Limodorum abortivum will be observed. In turn, the coverage of suitable niches of Hexalectris spicata, Uleiorchis ulaei and Wullschlaegelia calcarata may be even 16-74 times larger than in the present time. The conducted niche modeling and analysis of the similarity of their climatic tolerance showed instead that the future modification of the coverage of their suitable niches will not be unified and the future climate changes may be not so harmful for holomycotrophic orchids as expected.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-04-10

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 10 6  km 2 , 0.14 × 10 6  km 2 , and 0.11 × 10 6  km 2 , respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-04-01

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-01-01

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species. PMID:28393865

Integrating models with data in ecology and palaeoecology: advances towards a model-data fusion approach.

PubMed

Peng, Changhui; Guiot, Joel; Wu, Haibin; Jiang, Hong; Luo, Yiqi

2011-05-01

It is increasingly being recognized that global ecological research requires novel methods and strategies in which to combine process-based ecological models and data in cohesive, systematic ways. Model-data fusion (MDF) is an emerging area of research in ecology and palaeoecology. It provides a new quantitative approach that offers a high level of empirical constraint over model predictions based on observations using inverse modelling and data assimilation (DA) techniques. Increasing demands to integrate model and data methods in the past decade has led to MDF utilization in palaeoecology, ecology and earth system sciences. This paper reviews key features and principles of MDF and highlights different approaches with regards to DA. After providing a critical evaluation of the numerous benefits of MDF and its current applications in palaeoecology (i.e., palaeoclimatic reconstruction, palaeovegetation and palaeocarbon storage) and ecology (i.e. parameter and uncertainty estimation, model error identification, remote sensing and ecological forecasting), the paper discusses method limitations, current challenges and future research direction. In the ongoing data-rich era of today's world, MDF could become an important diagnostic and prognostic tool in which to improve our understanding of ecological processes while testing ecological theory and hypotheses and forecasting changes in ecosystem structure, function and services. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Global Salmonidae introductions reveal stronger ecological effects of changing intraspecific compared to interspecific diversity.

PubMed

Buoro, Mathieu; Olden, Julian D; Cucherousset, Julien

2016-11-01

The introduction of organisms within the native range of wild conspecifics is a widespread phenomenon and locally modifies patterns in intraspecific diversity. However, our knowledge of the resulting ecological effects, as opposed to those caused by invasion-induced changes in interspecific diversity, is still limited. Here, we investigated the ecological effects of native and non-native invaders across levels of biological organisations and recipient organisms using the global and long history introductions of salmonids. Our meta-analysis demonstrated that the global effects of native species introductions exceeded those induced by non-native invaders. The impacts of native invaders were primarily manifested at the individual level on wild conspecifics, but remained largely unexplored on other native organisms and at the community and ecosystem levels. Overlooked and poorly appreciated, quantifying the impacts of native invaders has important implications because human-assisted introductions of domesticated organisms are ubiquitous and likely to proliferate in the future. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology

PubMed Central

Stillman, Richard A.; Railsback, Steven F.; Giske, Jarl; Berger, Uta; Grimm, Volker

2014-01-01

Ecologists urgently need a better ability to predict how environmental change affects biodiversity. We examine individual-based ecology (IBE), a research paradigm that promises better a predictive ability by using individual-based models (IBMs) to represent ecological dynamics as arising from how individuals interact with their environment and with each other. A key advantage of IBMs is that the basis for predictions—fitness maximization by individual organisms—is more general and reliable than the empirical relationships that other models depend on. Case studies illustrate the usefulness and predictive success of long-term IBE programs. The pioneering programs had three phases: conceptualization, implementation, and diversification. Continued validation of models runs throughout these phases. The breakthroughs that make IBE more productive include standards for describing and validating IBMs, improved and standardized theory for individual traits and behavior, software tools, and generalized instead of system-specific IBMs. We provide guidelines for pursuing IBE and a vision for future IBE research. PMID:26955076

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L

2017-03-07

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

PubMed Central

Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike. PMID:28267144

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-03-01

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a `business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

2013-12-01

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production. Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment.

PubMed

Unsworth, Richard K F; van Keulen, Mike; Coles, Rob G

2014-06-30

Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social-ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arctic biodiversity: Increasing richness accompanies shrinking refugia for a cold-associated tundra fauna

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Malaney, Jason L.; Payer, David C.; Cook, J.A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2015-01-01

As ancestral biodiversity responded dynamically to late-Quaternary climate changes, so are extant organisms responding to the warming trajectory of the Anthropocene. Ecological predictive modeling, statistical hypothesis tests, and genetic signatures of demographic change can provide a powerful integrated toolset for investigating these biodiversity responses to climate change, and relative resiliency across different communities. Within the biotic province of Beringia, we analyzed specimen localities and DNA sequences from 28 mammal species associated with boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes to assess both historical distributional and evolutionary responses and then forecasted future changes based on statistical assessments of past and present trajectories, and quantified distributional and demographic changes in relation to major management regions within the study area. We addressed three sets of hypotheses associated with aspects of methodological, biological, and socio-political importance by asking (1) what is the consistency among implications of predicted changes based on the results of both ecological and evolutionary analyses; (2) what are the ecological and evolutionary implications of climate change considering either total regional diversity or distinct communities associated with major biomes; and (3) are there differences in management implications across regions? Our results indicate increasing Arctic richness through time that highlights a potential state shift across the Arctic landscape. However, within distinct ecological communities, we found a predicted decline in the range and effective population size of tundra species into several discrete refugial areas. Consistency in results based on a combination of both ecological and evolutionary approaches demonstrates increased statistical confidence by applying cross-discipline comparative analyses to conservation of biodiversity, particularly considering variable management regimes that seek to balance sustainable ecosystems with other anthropogenic values. Refugial areas for cold-adapted taxa appear to be persistent across both warm and cold climate phases and although fragmented, constitute vital regions for persistence of Arctic mammals.

The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Passeri, Davina L.; Hagen, Scott C.; Medeiros, Stephen C.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Alizad, Karim; Wang, Dingbao

2015-01-01

Coastal responses to sea level rise (SLR) include inundation of wetlands, increased shoreline erosion, and increased flooding during storm events. Hydrodynamic parameters such as tidal ranges, tidal prisms, tidal asymmetries, increased flooding depths and inundation extents during storm events respond nonadditively to SLR. Coastal morphology continually adapts toward equilibrium as sea levels rise, inducing changes in the landscape. Marshes may struggle to keep pace with SLR and rely on sediment accumulation and the availability of suitable uplands for migration. Whether hydrodynamic, morphologic, or ecologic, the impacts of SLR are interrelated. To plan for changes under future sea levels, coastal managers need information and data regarding the potential effects of SLR to make informed decisions for managing human and natural communities. This review examines previous studies that have accounted for the dynamic, nonlinear responses of hydrodynamics, coastal morphology, and marsh ecology to SLR by implementing more complex approaches rather than the simplistic “bathtub” approach. These studies provide an improved understanding of the dynamic effects of SLR on coastal environments and contribute to an overall paradigm shift in how coastal scientists and engineers approach modeling the effects of SLR, transitioning away from implementing the “bathtub” approach. However, it is recommended that future studies implement a synergetic approach that integrates the dynamic interactions between physical and ecological environments to better predict the impacts of SLR on coastal systems.

Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change.

PubMed

Baskett, Marissa L; Gaines, Steven D; Nisbet, Roger M

2009-01-01

Given climate change, thermal stress-related mass coral-bleaching events present one of the greatest anthropogenic threats to coral reefs. While corals and their symbiotic algae may respond to future temperatures through genetic adaptation and shifts in community compositions, the climate may change too rapidly for coral response. To test this potential for response, here we develop a model of coral and symbiont ecological dynamics and symbiont evolutionary dynamics. Model results without variation in symbiont thermal tolerance predict coral reef collapse within decades under multiple future climate scenarios, consistent with previous threshold-based predictions. However, model results with genetic or community-level variation in symbiont thermal tolerance can predict coral reef persistence into the next century, provided low enough greenhouse gas emissions occur. Therefore, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will have a significant effect on the future of coral reefs, and accounting for biodiversity and biological dynamics is vital to estimating the size of this effect.

Major challenges for correlational ecological niche model projections to future climate conditions.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Cobos, Marlon E; Jiménez-García, Daniel

2018-06-20

Species-level forecasts of distributional potential and likely distributional shifts, in the face of changing climates, have become popular in the literature in the past 20 years. Many refinements have been made to the methodology over the years, and the result has been an approach that considers multiple sources of variation in geographic predictions, and how that variation translates into both specific predictions and uncertainty in those predictions. Although numerous previous reviews and overviews of this field have pointed out a series of assumptions and caveats associated with the methodology, three aspects of the methodology have important impacts but have not been treated previously in detail. Here, we assess those three aspects: (1) effects of niche truncation on model transfers to future climate conditions, (2) effects of model selection procedures on future-climate transfers of ecological niche models, and (3) relative contributions of several factors (replicate samples of point data, general circulation models, representative concentration pathways, and alternative model parameterizations) to overall variance in model outcomes. Overall, the view is one of caution: although resulting predictions are fascinating and attractive, this paradigm has pitfalls that may bias and limit confidence in niche model outputs as regards the implications of climate change for species' geographic distributions. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Effects of climate change on forest vegetation in the northern Rockies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keane, Robert E.; Mahalovich, Mary Frances; Bollenbacher, Barry L.; Manning, Mary E.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Jain, Terrie B.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Larson, Andrew J.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.

2018-01-01

Increasing air temperature, through its influence on soil moisture, is expected to cause gradual changes in the abundance and distribution of tree, shrub, and grass species throughout the Northern Rockies, with drought tolerant species becoming more competitive. The earliest changes will be at ecotones between lifeforms (e.g., upper and lower treelines). Ecological disturbance, including wildfire and insect outbreaks, will be the primary facilitator of vegetation change, and future forest landscapes may be dominated by younger age classes and smaller trees. High-elevation forests will be especially vulnerable if disturbance frequency

The history and future of the forest industry of Irkutsk province

Treesearch

Dennis V. Dayneko; Eric J. Gustafson

2013-01-01

Multiple global changes are impacting Russia today. Economic transformations in Russia have prompted the establishment of new relations in economic, institutional and ecological spheres, including within the Forest Industry. This paper focuses on the Forest sector in Irkutsk province and beyond, examining the basic problems related to the transformation of the forest...

Ecological Footprinting: Its Potential as a Tool for Change in Preservice Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Gorman, Lyndal; Davis, Julie

2013-01-01

Environmental and sustainability issues pose challenges for society. Although education is seen as being a contributor to addressing sustainability, teacher education has been slow to act in preparing future teachers to teach sustainability. Recent Australian curriculum documents nominate sustainability as one of three cross-curriculum priorities.…

Fifty important research questions in microbial ecology.

PubMed

Antwis, Rachael E; Griffiths, Sarah M; Harrison, Xavier A; Aranega-Bou, Paz; Arce, Andres; Bettridge, Aimee S; Brailsford, Francesca L; de Menezes, Alexandre; Devaynes, Andrew; Forbes, Kristian M; Fry, Ellen L; Goodhead, Ian; Haskell, Erin; Heys, Chloe; James, Chloe; Johnston, Sarah R; Lewis, Gillian R; Lewis, Zenobia; Macey, Michael C; McCarthy, Alan; McDonald, James E; Mejia-Florez, Nasmille L; O'Brien, David; Orland, Chloé; Pautasso, Marco; Reid, William D K; Robinson, Heather A; Wilson, Kenneth; Sutherland, William J

2017-05-01

Microbial ecology provides insights into the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of microbial communities underpinning every ecosystem on Earth. Microbial communities can now be investigated in unprecedented detail, although there is still a wealth of open questions to be tackled. Here we identify 50 research questions of fundamental importance to the science or application of microbial ecology, with the intention of summarising the field and bringing focus to new research avenues. Questions are categorised into seven themes: host-microbiome interactions; health and infectious diseases; human health and food security; microbial ecology in a changing world; environmental processes; functional diversity; and evolutionary processes. Many questions recognise that microbes provide an extraordinary array of functional diversity that can be harnessed to solve real-world problems. Our limited knowledge of spatial and temporal variation in microbial diversity and function is also reflected, as is the need to integrate micro- and macro-ecological concepts, and knowledge derived from studies with humans and other diverse organisms. Although not exhaustive, the questions presented are intended to stimulate discussion and provide focus for researchers, funders and policy makers, informing the future research agenda in microbial ecology. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Application of Maxent Multivariate Analysis to Define Climate-Change Effects on Species Distributions and Changes

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

approaches. Ecological Modelling Volume 200, Issues 1–2, 10, pp 1–19. Buhlmann, Kurt A ., Thomas S.B. Akre , John B. Iverson, Deno Karapatakis, Russell A ...statistical multivariate analysis to define the current and projected future range probability for species of interest to Army land managers. A software...15 Figure 4. RCW omission rate and predicted area as a function of the cumulative threshold

Towards more accurate isoscapes encouraging results from wine, water and marijuana data/model and model/model comparisons.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, J. B.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Cerling, T.

2006-12-01

Understanding how the biosphere responds to change it at the heart of biogeochemistry, ecology, and other Earth sciences. The dramatic increase in human population and technological capacity over the past 200 years or so has resulted in numerous, simultaneous changes to biosphere structure and function. This, then, has lead to increased urgency in the scientific community to try to understand how systems have already responded to these changes, and how they might do so in the future. Since all biospheric processes exhibit some patchiness or patterns over space, as well as time, we believe that understanding the dynamic interactions between natural systems and human technological manipulations can be improved if these systems are studied in an explicitly spatial context. We present here results of some of our efforts to model the spatial variation in the stable isotope ratios (δ2H and δ18O) of plants over large spatial extents, and how these spatial model predictions compare to spatially explicit data. Stable isotopes trace and record ecological processes and as such, if modeled correctly over Earth's surface allow us insights into changes in biosphere states and processes across spatial scales. The data-model comparisons show good agreement, in spite of the remaining uncertainties (e.g., plant source water isotopic composition). For example, inter-annual changes in climate are recorded in wine stable isotope ratios. Also, a much simpler model of leaf water enrichment driven with spatially continuous global rasters of precipitation and climate normals largely agrees with complex GCM modeling that includes leaf water δ18O. Our results suggest that modeling plant stable isotope ratios across large spatial extents may be done with reasonable accuracy, including over time. These spatial maps, or isoscapes, can now be utilized to help understand spatially distributed data, as well as to help guide future studies designed to understand ecological change across landscapes.

Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

PubMed

Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

2017-01-01

The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Introduction to the Arizona Sky Island Arthropod Project (ASAP): Systematics, Biogeography, Ecology, and Population Genetics of Arthropods of the Madrean Sky Islands.

PubMed

Moore, Wendy; Meyer, Wallace M; Eble, Jeffrey A; Franklin, Kimberly; Wiens, John F; Brusca, Richard C

2013-01-01

The Arizona Sky Island Arthropod Project (ASAP) is a new multi-disciplinary research program at the University of Arizona that combines systematics, biogeography, ecology, and population genetics to study origins and patterns of arthropod diversity along elevation gradients and among mountain ranges in the Madrean Sky Island Region. Arthropods represent taxonomically and ecologically diverse organisms that drive key ecosystem processes in this mountain archipelago. Using data from museum specimens and specimens we obtain during long-term collecting and monitoring programs, ASAP will document arthropod species across Arizona's Sky Islands to address a number of fundamental questions about arthropods of this region. Baseline data will be used to determine climatic boundaries for target species, which will then be integrated with climatological models to predict future changes in arthropod communities and distributions in the wake of rapid climate change. ASAP also makes use of the natural laboratory provided by the Sky Islands to investigate ecological and genetic factors that influence diversification and patterns of community assembly. Here, we introduce the project, outline overarching goals, and describe preliminary data from the first year of sampling ground-dwelling beetles and ants in the Santa Catalina Mountains.

Pleistocene megafaunal interaction networks became more vulnerable after human arrival.

PubMed

Pires, Mathias M; Koch, Paul L; Fariña, Richard A; de Aguiar, Marcus A M; dos Reis, Sérgio F; Guimarães, Paulo R

2015-09-07

The end of the Pleistocene was marked by the extinction of almost all large land mammals worldwide except in Africa. Although the debate on Pleistocene extinctions has focused on the roles of climate change and humans, the impact of perturbations depends on properties of ecological communities, such as species composition and the organization of ecological interactions. Here, we combined palaeoecological and ecological data, food-web models and community stability analysis to investigate if differences between Pleistocene and modern mammalian assemblages help us understand why the megafauna died out in the Americas while persisting in Africa. We show Pleistocene and modern assemblages share similar network topology, but differences in richness and body size distributions made Pleistocene communities significantly more vulnerable to the effects of human arrival. The structural changes promoted by humans in Pleistocene networks would have increased the likelihood of unstable dynamics, which may favour extinction cascades in communities facing extrinsic perturbations. Our findings suggest that the basic aspects of the organization of ecological communities may have played an important role in major extinction events in the past. Knowledge of community-level properties and their consequences to dynamics may be critical to understand past and future extinctions. © 2015 The Author(s).

Pleistocene megafaunal interaction networks became more vulnerable after human arrival

PubMed Central

Pires, Mathias M.; Koch, Paul L.; Fariña, Richard A.; de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.; dos Reis, Sérgio F.; Guimarães, Paulo R.

2015-01-01

The end of the Pleistocene was marked by the extinction of almost all large land mammals worldwide except in Africa. Although the debate on Pleistocene extinctions has focused on the roles of climate change and humans, the impact of perturbations depends on properties of ecological communities, such as species composition and the organization of ecological interactions. Here, we combined palaeoecological and ecological data, food-web models and community stability analysis to investigate if differences between Pleistocene and modern mammalian assemblages help us understand why the megafauna died out in the Americas while persisting in Africa. We show Pleistocene and modern assemblages share similar network topology, but differences in richness and body size distributions made Pleistocene communities significantly more vulnerable to the effects of human arrival. The structural changes promoted by humans in Pleistocene networks would have increased the likelihood of unstable dynamics, which may favour extinction cascades in communities facing extrinsic perturbations. Our findings suggest that the basic aspects of the organization of ecological communities may have played an important role in major extinction events in the past. Knowledge of community-level properties and their consequences to dynamics may be critical to understand past and future extinctions. PMID:26336175

Noah’s Ark Conservation Will Not Preserve Threatened Ecological Communities under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Harris, Rebecca Mary Bernadette; Carter, Oberon; Gilfedder, Louise; Porfirio, Luciana Laura; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel Lee

2015-01-01

Background Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. Methods We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. Results All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition. Conclusions As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and composition of Lowland Grassland communities is unlikely to be a viable management option in the long term. PMID:25881302

Noah's Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change.

PubMed

Harris, Rebecca Mary Bernadette; Carter, Oberon; Gilfedder, Louise; Porfirio, Luciana Laura; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel Lee

2015-01-01

Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition. As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and composition of Lowland Grassland communities is unlikely to be a viable management option in the long term.

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Coral reef ecosystem decline: changing dynamics of coral reef carbonate production and implications for reef growth potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, Chris

2016-04-01

Global-scale deteriorations in coral reef health have caused major shifts in species composition and are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. It has been suggested that one effect of these ecological changes will be to lower reef carbonate production rates, which will impair reef growth potential and, ultimately, may lead to states of net reef erosion. However, quantitative data to support such assertions are limited, and linkages between the ecological state of coral reefs and their past and present geomorphic performance (in other words their growth potential) are poorly resolved. Using recently collected data from sites in the Caribbean and Indian Ocean, and which have undergone very different post-disturbance ecological trajectories over the last ~20-30 years, the differential impacts of disturbance on contemporary carbonate production regimes and on reef growth potential can be explored. In the Caribbean, a region which has been severely impacted ecological over the last 30+ years, our datasets show that average carbonate production rates on reefs are now less than 50% of pre-disturbance rates, and that calculated accretion rates (mm yr-1) are an about order of magnitude lower within shallow water habitats compared to Holocene averages. Collectively, these data suggest that recent ecological declines are now propagating through the system to impact on the geomorphic performance of Caribbean reefs and will impair their future growth potential. In contrast, the carbonate budgets of most reefs across the Chagos archipelago (central Indian Ocean), which is geographically remote and largely isolated from direct human disturbances, have recovered rapidly from major past disturbances (specifically the 1998 coral bleaching event). The carbonate budgets on these remote reefs now average +3.7 G (G = kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1). Most significantly the production rates on Acropora-dominated reefs, which were most severely impacted by the 1998 bleaching event, average +8.4 G, comparable with estimates under pre-human disturbance conditions, and are reflected in high reef growth rates (4.2 mm yr-1). These reefs thus retain the capacity to grow at rates exceeding measured regional mid-late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise, and close to IPCC sea-level rise projections through to 2100. However, their positive growth potential is strongly tied to the persistence of several key coral species, and thus the frequency and magnitude of future disturbance events will be key determinants of near-future reef growth.

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Global trends of local ecological knowledge and future implications

PubMed Central

Lemahieu, Anne; Sauer, Warwick H. H.

2018-01-01

Local and indigenous knowledge is being transformed globally, particularly being eroded when pertaining to ecology. In many parts of the world, rural and indigenous communities are facing tremendous cultural, economic and environmental changes, which contribute to weaken their local knowledge base. In the face of profound and ongoing environmental changes, both cultural and biological diversity are likely to be severely impacted as well as local resilience capacities from this loss. In this global literature review, we analyse the drivers of various types of local and indigenous ecological knowledge transformation and assess the directionality of the reported change. Results of this analysis show a global impoverishment of local and indigenous knowledge with 77% of papers reporting the loss of knowledge driven by globalization, modernization, and market integration. The recording of this loss, however, is not symmetrical, with losses being recorded more strongly in medicinal and ethnobotanical knowledge. Persistence of knowledge (15% of the studies) occurred in studies where traditional practices were being maintained consiously and where hybrid knowledge was being produced as a resut of certain types of incentives created by economic development. This review provides some insights into local and indigenous ecological knowledge change, its causes and implications, and recommends venues for the development of replicable and comparative research. The larger implication of these results is that because of the interconnection between cultural and biological diversity, the loss of local and indigenous knowledge is likely to critically threaten effective conservation of biodiversity, particularly in community-based conservation local efforts. PMID:29621311

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

Evaluation of model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol -- before and after model refinement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanratty, M.P.; Liber, K.

1994-12-31

The Littoral Ecosystem Risk Assessment Model (LERAM) is a bioenergetic ecosystem effects model. It links single species toxicity data to a bioenergetic model of the trophic structure of an ecosystem in order to simulate community and ecosystem level effects of chemical stressors. LERAM was used in 1992 to simulate the ecological effects of diflubenzuron. When compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study, the model exaggerated the cascading of effects through the trophic levels of the littoral ecosystem. It was hypothesized that this could be corrected by making minor changes in the representation of the littoral food web. Twomore » refinements of the model were therefore performed: (1) the plankton and macroinvertebrate model populations [eg., predatory Copepoda, herbivorous Insecta, green phytoplankton, etc.] were changed to better represent the habitat and feeding preferences of the endemic taxa; and (2) the method for modeling the microbial degradation of detritus (and the resulting nutrient remineralization) was changed from simulating bacterial populations to simulating bacterial function. Model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol were made before and after these refinements. Both sets of predictions were then compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol. The changes in the LERAM predictions were then used to determine the success of the refinements, to guide. future research, and to further define LERAM`s domain of application.« less

Molluscan shell communities: a window into the ecological history of the northern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallmetzer, Ivo; Haselmair, Alexandra; Tomasovych, Adam; Stachowitsch, Michael; Zuschin, Martin

2015-04-01

The historical ecology approach used in the present study sheds light on the younger ecological history of the northern Adriatic Sea, targeting the period of the last 500 to 1500 years. We focus on down-core changes in molluscan death assemblages, where differences between community structures serve as a proxy for ecological shifts over time. The northern Adriatic Sea, with its densely populated shoreline, is among the most degraded marine ecosystems worldwide and is therefore particularly suited to study ecosystem modification under human pressure. Multiple cores of 1.5 m length and diameters of 90 and 160 mm were taken at seven sampling stations throughout the northern Adriatic Sea, covering different sediment types, nutrient conditions and degrees of exploitation. For the mollusc analyses, the cores were sliced into smaller subsamples and analysed for species composition, abundance, taxonomic similarity, evidence for ecological interactions (i.e., frequencies of drilling predation) and taphonomic condition of shells. Sediment analyses include granulometry and radiometric sediment dating using Pb 210. Sediment age analysis revealed one-order-of-magnitude differences in sedimentation rates between stations (34 mm/yr at the Po delta, Italy, 1.5 mm/yr at Brijuni islands, Croatia). In total, 114 bivalve and 112 gastropod species were recorded. Bivalve assemblages showed significant interregional differences that are strongly correlated with sedimentation rates and sediment composition. Down-core changes in molluscan communities are conspicuous in all cores, particularly in the uppermost core sections. This information, together with radiometric shell dating for selected species, helps to specify the timing of major ecological changes in the past and define pristine benthic communities as references for future conservation and management efforts.

Symbiotic Dinoflagellate Functional Diversity Mediates Coral Survival under Ecological Crisis.

PubMed

Suggett, David J; Warner, Mark E; Leggat, William

2017-10-01

Coral reefs have entered an era of 'ecological crisis' as climate change drives catastrophic reef loss worldwide. Coral growth and stress susceptibility are regulated by their endosymbiotic dinoflagellates (genus Symbiodinium). The phylogenetic diversity of Symbiodinium frequently corresponds to patterns of coral health and survival, but knowledge of functional diversity is ultimately necessary to reconcile broader ecological success over space and time. We explore here functional traits underpinning the complex biology of Symbiodinium that spans free-living algae to coral endosymbionts. In doing so we propose a mechanistic framework integrating the primary traits of resource acquisition and utilisation as a means to explain Symbiodinium functional diversity and to resolve the role of Symbiodinium in driving the stability of coral reefs under an uncertain future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noospheric ecological imperative in culture of technocratic society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shantarin, V. D.; Bezzubtseva, N. A.; Zemenkov, Yu D.

2018-05-01

Technogenic, dynamic and mobile civilization has been in a state of systemic ecological and economic crisis for several decades. Numerous studies of its origins and causes show that the culture of a technocratic society associated with a quantitative increase in consumption has exhausted its capabilities and proved incapable of alleviating the sustainable future of humankind. Comprehension of this problem gives grounds to believe that its solvation is largely predetermined by the formation of a new culture, the core of which is the noospheric ecological imperative: only the thing that does not violate the natural balance is allowed. Life in the conditions of imposed restrictions is connected with the change of worldview attitudes of society, understanding the ideas of noospheregenesis and eco-centrism, the need for strict regulation, economy and conscious restriction of consumption.

Farming or seasonal migration? - Potential futures of reindeer husbandry in Fennoscandia studied with Social-Ecological System (SES) approach, co-production of knowledge, and scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Käyhkö, Jukka; Horstkotte, Tim; Vehmas, Jarmo; Forbes, Bruce

2017-04-01

The area allocated for reindeer husbandry in Finland, Sweden and Norway covers approximately 40 % of each country. As the livelihood requires large, relatively unfragmented territories while being marginal in terms of direct income, land-use conflicts between various livelihoods and activities, such as forestry, agriculture, mining, energy production, tourism, and nature protection are common phenomena in the region. Simultaneously, rapid societal change, urban exodus and fading traditions as well as climate warming and subsequent ecosystem change may put the livelihood at stake. We have probed potential futures of reindeer husbandry in Northern Fennoscandia using the Social-Ecological System (SES) approach, knowledge co-production in stakeholder-scientist workshops in all three countries, and scenario building based on quantitative data and narratives. Regarding the future of the livelihood, we have identified some crucial components in the SES that are influential in determining the direction of development. We produced four potential pathways of future development and demonstrate that important factors controlling the direction of development include governance and actor relations. Governance is often considered distant and opaque by local stakeholders, fostering conflicts in land allocation, while unclear regulations at local level reinforce emerging conflict situations leading to distrust and restrained communication between the actors. Regionally, these conflicts may lead to decreased resilience and threaten the future of the livelihood altogether. Therefore, research should focus on supporting the reform process of institutional arrangements and governance mechanisms, and fostering co-design and co-production processes that ease distrust and improve resilience of the livelihood in multifunctional landscapes.

Near Real-time Ecological Forecasting of Peatland Responses to Warming and CO2 Treatment through EcoPAD-SPRUCE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; Stacy, M.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Sundi, N.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Ecological forecasting is critical in various aspects of our coupled human-nature systems, such as disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change mitigation. Novel advancements are in urgent need to deepen our understandings of ecosystem dynamics, boost the predictive capacity of ecology, and provide timely and effective information for decision-makers in a rapidly changing world. Our Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD) facilitates the integration of current best knowledge from models, manipulative experimentations, observations and other modern techniques and provides both near real-time and long-term forecasting of ecosystem dynamics. As a case study, the web-based EcoPAD platform synchronizes real- or near real-time field measurements from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change Experiment (SPRUCE), a whole ecosystem warming and CO2 enrichment treatment experiment, assimilates multiple data streams into process based models, enhances timely feedback between modelers and experimenters, and ultimately improves ecosystem forecasting and makes best utilization of current knowledge. In addition to enable users to (i) estimate model parameters or state variables, (ii) quantify uncertainty of estimated parameters and projected states of ecosystems, (iii) evaluate model structures, (iv) assess sampling strategies, and (v) conduct ecological forecasting, EcoPAD-SPRUCE automated the workflow from real-time data acquisition, model simulation to result visualization. EcoPAD-SPRUCE promotes seamless feedback between modelers and experimenters, hand in hand to make better forecasting of future changes. The framework of EcoPAD-SPRUCE (with flexible API, Application Programming Interface) is easily portable and will benefit scientific communities, policy makers as well as the general public.

Declining reliance on marine resources in remote South Pacific societies: ecological versus socio-economic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, R. A.; Cakacaka, A.; Graham, N. A. J.; Polunin, N. V. C.; Pratchett, M. S.; Stead, S. M.; Wilson, S. K.

2007-12-01

Degraded coral reef ecosystems yield limited goods and services, which is expected to have significant socio-economic impacts on isolated tropical island communities with strong reliance on coral reefs. This study investigates socio-economic changes, specifically in fresh fish consumption and fishing activities, associated with environmental degradation at five fishing grounds ( qoliqoli) in the Lau Islands (Fiji). Semi-structured interviews with fishers and senior household members revealed that the importance of fishing was low relative to other occupations, and consumption of fresh fish has declined over the last decade. Reduced fishing and choice of fresh fish is largely attributable to an increased need to derive income as well as new income-generating opportunities. A possible consequence of reduced reliance on marine resources was limited awareness of recent environmental degradation caused by climate-induced coral bleaching and outbreaks of coral-feeding crown-of-thorns starfish. Limited use and reduced awareness of the local marine environment in the short term may erode social memory and local ecological knowledge, reducing opportunities to fall back on marine resources. This may also compromise long-term economic and social stability. Conversely, low reliance on marine resources may confer greater flexibility to adapt to future ecological change in the marine environment. Importantly, changes in fish consumption and exploitation of marine resources were linked to socio-economic factors rather than a consequence of recent degradation of marine environments. Greater knowledge of the dynamics driving change in marine resource use is necessary to understand how societies respond to ecological and socio-economic change, and to identify opportunities for adaptive sustainable ecosystem management.

Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunsu; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Song, Sang-Keun; Lee, Hwa Woon

2016-11-15

The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of social-ecological system to climate change in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakinuma, K.; Yanagawa, A.; Sasaki, T.; Kanae, S.

2017-12-01

Coping with future climate changes are one of the most important issues in the world. IPCC (2014) suggested that vulnerability and exposure of social-ecological systems to extreme climatic events (hazard) determine the impact of climate changes. Although the schematic framework is widely accepted, there are high uncertainty of vulnerability of social and ecological systems and it makes difficult to examine it in empirical researches. Our objective is to assess the climate change impact on the social-ecological system in Mongolia. We review researches about trends of climate (Hazard), vegetation, pastoral mobility (Vulnerability) and livestock distribution (Exposure) across Mongolia Climate trends are critical for last several decades and thus hazard may be increasing in Mongolia. Temperature is increasing with high confidence in all regions. Precipitation are slightly decreasing with medium confidence across the country, especially in northern and central regions. Exposure would also be increasing especially in northern, central and western regions, because livestock population are concentrating these regions after 1990. Generally, less productive ecosystems (e.g. few plant productivity and less species richness) are vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as drought. In that sense, southern region may be more vulnerable to climate changes than other regions. However, if we focus on pastoral mobility forms for drought, we get contractive conclusions. Pastoralists in southern region keep mobility to variable and scarce vegetation while pastoralists in northern region less mobile because of stable and much vegetation. Exclusive managements in northern region is able to maximized the number of livestock only under stable precipitation regimes. But at the same time, it is difficult to escape from hazardous areas when it is drought. Thus, in term of rangeland management, northern region would be more vulnerable to increase of drought intensity. Although northern and central regions have high ecological productivity, they have high livestock density (high exposure) and their rangeland management don't adapt well to drought (high vulnerability). Therefore, we suggested that these regions have to prepare to climate changes for sustainable rangeland managements.

Marine ecosystem resilience during extreme deoxygenation: the Early Jurassic oceanic anoxic event.

PubMed

Caswell, Bryony A; Frid, Christopher L J

2017-01-01

Global warming during the Early Jurassic, and associated widespread ocean deoxygenation, was comparable in scale with the changes projected for the next century. This study quantifies the impact of severe global environmental change on the biological traits of marine communities that define the ecological roles and functions they deliver. We document centennial-millennial variability in the biological trait composition of Early Jurassic (Toarcian) seafloor communities and examine how this changed during the event using biological traits analysis. Environmental changes preceding the global oceanic anoxic event (OAE) produced an ecological shift leading to stressed benthic palaeocommunities with reduced resilience to the subsequent OAE. Changes in traits and ecological succession coincided with major environmental changes; and were of similar nature and magnitude to those in severely deoxygenated benthic communities today despite the very different timescales. Changes in community composition were linked to local redox conditions whereas changes in populations of opportunists were driven by primary productivity. Throughout most of the OAE substitutions by tolerant taxa conserved the trait composition and hence functioning, but periods of severe deoxygenation caused benthic defaunation that would have resulted in functional collapse. Following the OAE recovery was slow probably because the global nature of the event restricted opportunities for recruitment from outside the basin. Our findings suggest that future systems undergoing deoxygenation may initially show functional resilience, but severe global deoxygenation will impact traits and ecosystem functioning and, by limiting the species pool, will slow recovery rates.

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietze, Michael C.; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Keitt, Timothy H.; Kenney, Melissa A.; Laney, Christine M.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Loescher, Henry W.; Lunch, Claire K.; Pijanowski, Bryan; Randerson, James T.; Read, Emily; Tredennick, Andrew T.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Weathers, Kathleen C.; White, Ethan P.

2018-01-01

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

Form of an evolutionary tradeoff affects eco-evolutionary dynamics in a predator-prey system.

PubMed

Kasada, Minoru; Yamamichi, Masato; Yoshida, Takehito

2014-11-11

Evolution on a time scale similar to ecological dynamics has been increasingly recognized for the last three decades. Selection mediated by ecological interactions can change heritable phenotypic variation (i.e., evolution), and evolution of traits, in turn, can affect ecological interactions. Hence, ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be tightly linked and important to predict future dynamics, but our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics is still in its infancy and there is a significant gap between theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Empirical studies have demonstrated that the presence of genetic variation can dramatically change ecological dynamics, whereas theoretical studies predict that eco-evolutionary dynamics depend on the details of the genetic variation, such as the form of a tradeoff among genotypes, which can be more important than the presence or absence of the genetic variation. Using a predator-prey (rotifer-algal) experimental system in laboratory microcosms, we studied how different forms of a tradeoff between prey defense and growth affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our experimental results show for the first time to our knowledge that different forms of the tradeoff produce remarkably divergent eco-evolutionary dynamics, including near fixation, near extinction, and coexistence of algal genotypes, with quantitatively different population dynamics. A mathematical model, parameterized from completely independent experiments, explains the observed dynamics. The results suggest that knowing the details of heritable trait variation and covariation within a population is essential for understanding how evolution and ecology will interact and what form of eco-evolutionary dynamics will result.

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges.

PubMed

Dietze, Michael C; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Betancourt, Julio L; Hooten, Mevin B; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Keitt, Timothy H; Kenney, Melissa A; Laney, Christine M; Larsen, Laurel G; Loescher, Henry W; Lunch, Claire K; Pijanowski, Bryan C; Randerson, James T; Read, Emily K; Tredennick, Andrew T; Vargas, Rodrigo; Weathers, Kathleen C; White, Ethan P

2018-02-13

Two foundational questions about sustainability are "How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?" and "How do human decisions affect these trajectories?" Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

2016-07-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sustainability in nursing: a concept analysis

PubMed Central

Anåker, Anna; Elf, Marie

2014-01-01

Aim The aim of this study was to describe, explore and explain the concept of sustainability in nursing. Background Although researchers in nursing and medicine have emphasised the issue of sustainability and health, the concept of sustainability in nursing is undefined and poorly researched. A need exists for theoretical and empirical studies of sustainability in nursing. Design Concept analysis as developed by Walker and Avant. Method Data were derived from dictionaries, international healthcare organisations and literature searches in the CINAHL and MEDLINE databases. Inclusive years for the search ranged from 1990 to 2012. A total of fourteen articles were found that referred to sustainability in nursing. Results Sustainability in nursing involves six defining attributes: ecology, environment, future, globalism, holism and maintenance. Antecedents of sustainability require climate change, environmental impact and awareness, confidence in the future, responsibility and a willingness to change. Consequences of sustainability in nursing include education in the areas of ecology, environment and sustainable development as well as sustainability as a part of nursing academic programs and in the description of the academic subject of nursing. Sustainability should also be part of national and international healthcare organisations. The concept was clarified herein by giving it a definition. Conclusion Sustainability in nursing was explored and found to contribute to sustainable development, with the ultimate goal of maintaining an environment that does not harm current and future generations′ opportunities for good health. This concept analysis provides recommendations for the healthcare sector to incorporate sustainability and provides recommendations for future research. PMID:24602178

Restoration of contaminated ecosystems: adaptive management in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farag, Aida; Larson, Diane L.; Stauber, Jenny; Stahl, Ralph; Isanhart, John; McAbee, Kevin T.; Walsh, Christopher J.

2017-01-01

Three case studies illustrate how adaptive management (AM) has been used in ecological restorations that involve contaminants. Contaminants addressed include mercury, selenium, and contaminants and physical disturbances delivered to streams by urban stormwater runoff. All three cases emphasize the importance of broad stakeholder input early and consistently throughout decision analysis for AM. Risk of contaminant exposure provided input to the decision analyses (e.g. selenium exposure to endangered razorback suckers, Stewart Lake; multiple contaminants in urban stormwater runoff, Melbourne) and was balanced with the protection of resources critical for a desired future state (e.g. preservation old growth trees, South River). Monitoring also played a critical role in the ability to conduct the decision analyses necessary for AM plans. For example, newer technologies in the Melbourne case provided a testable situation where contaminant concentrations and flow disturbance were reduced to support a return to good ecological condition. In at least one case (Stewart Lake), long-term monitoring data are being used to document the potential effects of climate change on a restoration trajectory. Decision analysis formalized the process by which stakeholders arrived at the priorities for the sites, which together constituted the desired future condition towards which each restoration is aimed. Alternative models were developed that described in mechanistic terms how restoration can influence the system towards the desired future condition. Including known and anticipated effects of future climate scenarios in these models will make them robust to the long-term exposure and effects of contaminants in restored ecosystems.

Past climate change on Sky Islands drives novelty in a core developmental gene network and its phenotype.

PubMed

Favé, Marie-Julie; Johnson, Robert A; Cover, Stefan; Handschuh, Stephan; Metscher, Brian D; Müller, Gerd B; Gopalan, Shyamalika; Abouheif, Ehab

2015-09-04

A fundamental and enduring problem in evolutionary biology is to understand how populations differentiate in the wild, yet little is known about what role organismal development plays in this process. Organismal development integrates environmental inputs with the action of gene regulatory networks to generate the phenotype. Core developmental gene networks have been highly conserved for millions of years across all animals, and therefore, organismal development may bias variation available for selection to work on. Biased variation may facilitate repeatable phenotypic responses when exposed to similar environmental inputs and ecological changes. To gain a more complete understanding of population differentiation in the wild, we integrated evolutionary developmental biology with population genetics, morphology, paleoecology and ecology. This integration was made possible by studying how populations of the ant species Monomorium emersoni respond to climatic and ecological changes across five 'Sky Islands' in Arizona, which are mountain ranges separated by vast 'seas' of desert. Sky Islands represent a replicated natural experiment allowing us to determine how repeatable is the response of M. emersoni populations to climate and ecological changes at the phenotypic, developmental, and gene network levels. We show that a core developmental gene network and its phenotype has kept pace with ecological and climate change on each Sky Island over the last ~90,000 years before present (BP). This response has produced two types of evolutionary change within an ant species: one type is unpredictable and contingent on the pattern of isolation of Sky lsland populations by climate warming, resulting in slight changes in gene expression, organ growth, and morphology. The other type is predictable and deterministic, resulting in the repeated evolution of a novel wingless queen phenotype and its underlying gene network in response to habitat changes induced by climate warming. Our findings reveal dynamics of developmental gene network evolution in wild populations. This holds important implications: (1) for understanding how phenotypic novelty is generated in the wild; (2) for providing a possible bridge between micro- and macroevolution; and (3) for understanding how development mediates the response of organisms to past, and potentially, future climate change.

Unified Synthesis Product (USP) Recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, T. C.

2009-05-01

The USP identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. For example, our knowledge of changes in tornadoes, hail, and ice storms is quite limited, making it difficult to know if and how such events have changed as climate has warmed, and how they might change in the future. Research on ecological responses to climate change also is limited, as is our understanding of social responses. The Report identifies the five most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. This includes ecosystems as well as economic systems, human health, and the built environment. 2. Refine ability to project climate change at local scales. One of the main messages to emerge from the past decade of synthesis and assessments is that while climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. The United States has tremendous potential to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society. 4. Improve understanding of and ability to identify thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in the climate system. Paleoclimatic data shows that climate can and has changed quite abruptly when certain thresholds are crossed. Similarly, there is evidence that ecological and human systems can undergo abrupt change when tipping points are reached. 5. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change in the context of multiple stresses. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is essential to improve understanding of how the capacity to adapt to a changing climate might be exercised, and the vulnerabilities to climate change and other environmental stresses that might remain. Results from these efforts would inform future assessments that continue building our understanding of humanity's impacts on climate, and climate's impacts on us. Such assessments will continue to play a role in helping the U.S. respond to changing conditions. A vision for future climate change assessments includes both sustained extensive practitioner and stakeholder involvement, and periodic, targeted, scientifically rigorous reports similar to the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products.

Reverse Ecology: from systems to environments and back.

PubMed

Levy, Roie; Borenstein, Elhanan

2012-01-01

The structure of complex biological systems reflects not only their function but also the environments in which they evolved and are adapted to. Reverse Ecology-an emerging new frontier in Evolutionary Systems Biology-aims to extract this information and to obtain novel insights into an organism's ecology. The Reverse Ecology framework facilitates the translation of high-throughput genomic data into large-scale ecological data, and has the potential to transform ecology into a high-throughput field. In this chapter, we describe some of the pioneering work in Reverse Ecology, demonstrating how system-level analysis of complex biological networks can be used to predict the natural habitats of poorly characterized microbial species, their interactions with other species, and universal patterns governing the adaptation of organisms to their environments. We further present several studies that applied Reverse Ecology to elucidate various aspects of microbial ecology, and lay out exciting future directions and potential future applications in biotechnology, biomedicine, and ecological engineering.

Effects of climate change on ecological disturbance in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehman, Rachel A.; Bentz, Barbara J.; DeNitto, Gregg A.; Keane, Robert E.; Manning, Mary E.; Duncan, Jacob P.; Egan, Joel M.; Jackson, Marcus B.; Kegley, Sandra; Lockman, I. Blakey; Pearson, Dean E.; Powell, James A.; Shelly, Steve; Steed, Brytten E.; Zambino, Paul J.

2018-01-01

This chapter describes the ecology of important disturbance regimes in the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USFS) Northern Region and the Greater Yellowstone Area, hereafter called the Northern Rockies region, and potential shifts in these regimes as a consequence of observed and projected climate change. The term disturbance regime describes the general temporal and spatial characteristics of a disturbance agent - insect, disease, fire, weather, even human activity - and the effects of that agent on the landscape (table 8.1). More specifically, a disturbance regime is the cumulative effect of multiple disturbance events over space and time (Keane 2013). Disturbances disrupt an ecosystem, community, or population structure and change elements of the biological environment, physical environment, or both (White and Pickett 1985). The resulting shifting mosaic of diverse ecological patterns and structures in turn affects future patterns of disturbance, in a reciprocal, linked relationship that shapes the fundamental character of landscapes and ecosystems. Disturbance creates and maintains biological diversity in the form of shifting, heterogeneous mosaics of diverse communities and habitats across a landscape (McKinney and Drake 1998), and biodiversity is generally highest when disturbance is neither too rare nor too frequent on the landscape (Grime 1973).

Ecosystem change and human health: implementation economics and policy.

PubMed

Pattanayak, S K; Kramer, R A; Vincent, J R

2017-06-05

Several recent initiatives such as Planetary Health , EcoHealth and One Health claim that human health depends on flourishing natural ecosystems. However, little has been said about the operational and implementation challenges of health-oriented conservation actions on the ground. We contend that ecological-epidemiological research must be complemented by a form of implementation science that examines: (i) the links between specific conservation actions and the resulting ecological changes, and (ii) how this ecological change impacts human health and well-being, when human behaviours are considered. Drawing on the policy evaluation tradition in public economics, first, we present three examples of recent social science research on conservation interventions that affect human health. These examples are from low- and middle-income countries in the tropics and subtropics. Second, drawing on these examples, we present three propositions related to impact evaluation and non-market valuation that can help guide future multidisciplinary research on conservation and human health. Research guided by these propositions will allow stakeholders to determine how ecosystem-mediated strategies for health promotion compare with more conventional biomedical prevention and treatment strategies for safeguarding health.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'. © 2017 The Authors.

Limnology of the Green Lakes Valley: Phytoplankton ecology and dissolved organic matter biogeochemistry at a long-term ecological research site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Matthew P.; McKnight, Diane M.

2015-01-01

Background: Surface waters are the lowest points in the landscape, and therefore serve as excellent integrators and indicators of changes taking place in the surrounding terrestrial and atmospheric environment.Aims: Here we synthesise the findings of limnological studies conducted during the past 15 years in streams and lakes in the Green Lakes Valley, which is part of the Niwot Ridge Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) Site.Methods: The importance of these studies is discussed in the context of aquatic ecosystems as indicators, integrators, and regulators of environmental change. Specifically, investigations into climatic, hydrologic, and nutrient controls on present-day phytoplankton, and historical diatom, community composition in the alpine lake, Green Lake 4, are reviewed. In addition, studies of spatial and temporal patterns in dissolved organic matter (DOM) biogeochemistry and reactive transport modelling that have taken place in the Green Lakes Valley are highlighted.Results and conclusions: The findings of these studies identify specific shifts in algal community composition and DOM biogeochemistry that are indicative of changing environmental conditions and provide a framework for detecting future environmental change in the Green Lakes Valley and in other alpine watersheds. Moreover, the studies summarised here demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring programmes such as the LTER programme.

Invasive forest pathogens: Summary of issues, critical needs, and future goals for Forest Service Research and Development

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Jennifer Juzwik; Michael E. Ostry; Mee-Sook Kim; Paul J. Zambino; Robert C. Venette; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist; D. Jean Lodge; Jessie A. Glaeser; Susan J. Frankel; William J. Otrosina; Pauline Spaine; Brian W. Geils

2010-01-01

Invasive pathogens have caused immeasurable ecological and economic damage to forest ecosystems. Damage will undoubtedly increase over time due to increased introductions and evolution of invasive pathogens in concert with complex environmental disturbances, such as climate change. Forest Service Research and Development must fulfill critical roles and responsibilities...

Challenges and needs in fire management: A landscape simulation modeling perspective [chapter 4

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan

2011-01-01

Fire management will face many challenges in the future from global climate change to protecting people, communities, and values at risk. Simulation modeling will be a vital tool for addressing these challenges but the next generation of simulation models must be spatially explicit to address critical landscape ecology relationships and they must use mechanistic...

Design of the Southern Forest Futures Project

Treesearch

David N. Wear; John G. Greis

2013-01-01

The South has a unique human and landscape history and forests that reflect many episodes of change. Spanning the 13 States from Virginia to Texas, the South still contains a widely diverse complement of physical, economic, and ecological conditions; where forests and other native habitats play an important role not only in supporting diversity of native plants and...

Carbon sequestration potential of poplar energy crops in the Midwest, USA

Treesearch

R.S. Jr. Zalesny; W.L. Headlee; R.B. Hall; D.R. Coyle

2010-01-01

Energy use and climate change mitigation are closely linked via ecological, social, and economic factors, including carbon management. Energy supply is a key 21st century National security issue for the United States; identifying and developing woody feedstocks for transportation fuels and combined heat and power operations are a crucial component of the future...

Promoting Behavior Change from Alcohol Use through Mobile Technology: The Future of Ecological Momentary Assessment

PubMed Central

Cohn, Amy M.; Hunter-Reel, Dorian; Hagman, Brett T.; Mitchell, Jessica

2011-01-01

Background Interactive and mobile technologies (i.e., smartphones such as Blackberries, iPhones, and palm-top computers) show promise as an efficacious and cost-effective means of communicating health-behavior risks, improving public health outcomes, and accelerating behavior change (Abroms and Maibach, 2008). The present study was conducted as a “needs assessment” to examine the current available mobile smartphone applications (e.g., apps) that utilize principles of ecological momentary assessment (EMA) -- daily self-monitoring or near real-time self-assessment of alcohol use behavior -- to promote positive behavior change, alcohol harm reduction, psycho-education about alcohol use, or abstinence from alcohol. Methods Data were collected and analyzed from iTunes for Apple iPhone©. An inventory assessed the number of available apps that directly addressed alcohol use and consumption, alcohol treatment, or recovery, and whether these apps incorporated empirically-based components of alcohol treatment. Results Findings showed that few apps addressed alcohol use behavior change or recovery. Aside from tracking drinking consumption, a minority utilized empirically-based components of alcohol treatment. Some apps claimed they could serve as an intervention, however no empirical evidence was provided. Conclusions More studies are needed to examine the efficacy of mobile technology in alcohol intervention studies. The large gap between availability of mobile apps and their use in alcohol treatment programs indicate several important future directions for research. PMID:21689119

Adapting to Climate Change: Reconsidering the Role of Protected Areas and Protected Organisms in Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graumlich, L. J.; Cross, M. S.; Hilty, J.; Berger, J.

2007-12-01

With the recent publication of the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), little doubt remains among scientists that the global climate system is changing due to human influence and that climate change will have far-reaching and fundamental impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity. Arguably the best-documented evidence linking 20th Century warming trends to changes in physical and biological systems comes from the mountains of western North America (e.g., Figure SPM1 in Summary of Working Group 11 Report). In the West, ecosystem impacts include changes in the distribution of species as well as changing functional linkages between species such as the synchrony between flower emergence and pollinating insects. These climate impacts, when combined with other environmental stressors (e.g., altered disturbance regimes, land-use change and habitat fragmentation) portend an amplification of species extinction rates. One of the great challenges in adapting to climate change is developing and implementing policies that enhance ecological resilience in the face of these change. Clearly, the current system of nature reserves in Western North America is a fundamental asset for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the fixed- boundary nature of these protected areas presents a problem as species' ranges shift with future climate change. The loss of species whose ranges move outside of fixed park boundaries and the arrival of other species that move into protected areas could lead to significant turnover of species diversity, new species assemblages, and altered functionality. In short, reserves that were designed to protect particular species or communities may no longer serve their intended purpose under a changing climate. In this talk, we use case studies from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and the Sonoran Desert Ecosystem to define strategies for enhancing ecological resilience to climate change at regional scales, taking into account the need for creating ecological connectivity between protected areas. We are particularly interested in defining opportunities in which traditional "working landscapes", such as large ranches in western North America, play a functional role in enhancing connectivity in the near-term as well as into the future. Based on our own work and that of others, we define the scientific roadmap for identifying and selecting corridors that are robust to climate change and other stressors and that are politically and socially viable as an adaptation strategy.

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

2016-03-01

This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Changing Arctic ecosystems: ecology of loons in a changing Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uher-Koch, Brian; Schmutz, Joel; Whalen, Mary; Pearce, John M.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a changing climate. From 2010 to 2014, a key study area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. This region has experienced rapid warming during the past 30 years, leading to the thawing of permafrost and changes to lake and river systems. These changes, and projections of continued change, have raised questions about effects on wildlife populations that rely on northern lake ecosystems, such as loons. Loons rely on freshwater lakes for nesting habitat and the fish and invertebrates inhabiting the lakes for food. Loons live within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) on Alaska’s northern coast, where oil and gas development is expected to increase. Research by the USGS examines how breeding loons use the Arctic lake ecosystem and the capacity of loons to adapt to future landscape change.

The Three Tsunamis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antcliff, Richard R.

2007-01-01

We often talk about how different our world is from our parent's world. We then extrapolate this thinking to our children and try to imagine the world they will face. This is hard enough. However, change is changing! The rate at which change is occurring is accelerating. These new ideas, technologies and ecologies appear to be coming at us like tsunamis. Our approach to responding to these oncoming tsunamis will frame the future our children will live in. There are many of these tsunamis; I am just going to focus on three really big ones heading our way.

Fine-resolution conservation planning with limited climate-change information.

PubMed

Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L; Ando, Amy W; Guntenspergen, Glenn R

2017-04-01

Climate-change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation-planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk-diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate-change scenarios for carrying out fine-resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate-change information and full climate-change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate-change forecasts such that the best possible risk-return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate-change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of climate change on ecological disturbance in the northern Rockies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehman, Rachel A.; Bentz, Barbara J.; DeNitto, Gregg A.; Keane, Robert E.; Manning, Mary E.; Duncan, Jacob P.; Egan, Joel M.; Jackson, Marcus B.; Kegley, Sandra; Lockman, I. Blakey; Pearson, Dean E.; Powell, James A.; Shelly, Steve; Steed, Brytten E.; Zambino, Paul J.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.

2018-01-01

Disturbances alter ecosystem, community, or population structure and change elements of the biological and/or physical environment. Climate changes can alter the timing, magnitude, frequency, and duration of disturbance events, as well as the interactions of disturbances on a landscape, and climate change may already be affecting disturbance events and regimes. Interactions among disturbance regimes, such as the cooccurrence in space and time of bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires, can result in highly visible, rapidly occurring, and persistent changes in landscape composition and structure. Understanding how altered disturbance patterns and multiple disturbance interactions might result in novel and emergent landscape behaviors is critical for addressing climate change impacts and for designing land management strategies that are appropriate for future climates This chapter describes the ecology of important disturbance regimes in the Northern Rockies region, and potential shifts in these regimes as a consequence of observed and projected climate change. We summarize five disturbance types present in the Northern Rockies that are sensitive to a changing climate--wildfires, bark beetles, white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), other forest diseases, and nonnative plant invasions—and provide information that can help managers anticipate how, when, where, and why climate changes may alter the characteristics of disturbance regimes.

Landscape ecology in North America: past, present, and future

Treesearch

Monica G. Turner

2005-01-01

Landscape ecology offers a spatially explicit perspective on the relationships between ecological patterns and processes that can be applied across a range of scales. Concepts derived from landscape ecology now permeate ecological research across most levels of ecological organization and many scales. Landscape ecology developed rapidly after ideas that originated in...

Relational Human Ecology: Reconciling the Boundaries of Humans and Nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNiel, J.; Lopes, V. L.

2010-12-01

Global change is transforming the planet at unprecedented rates. Global warming, massive species extinction, increasing land degradation, overpopulation, poverty and injustice, are all the result of human choices and non-sustainable ways of life. What do we have to do and how much do we have to change to allow a transition to a more ecologically-conscious and just society? While these questions are of central concern, they cannot be fully addressed under the current paradigm, which hinders both our collection of knowledge and derivation of solutions. This paper attempts to develop a new variant of ecological thinking based on a relational ontological/epistemological approach. This is offered as a foundation for the political initiative to strive for a more fulfilling, sustainable and just society. This new approach, theoretically conceptualized as ‘relational human ecology,’ offers a relational (holistic) framework for overcoming mechanistic thinking and exploring questions regarding the long-term attainment of sustainability. Once established, we illustrate how the relational framework offers a new holistic approach centered on participatory inquiry within the context of a community workshop. We conclude with discussing possible directions for future relational human ecological participatory research, conducted from the intersection of myriad participants (i.e. agencies, academics, and community residents), and the ways in which this will allow for the derivation of accurate and sustainable solutions for global change. Key words: relational thinking, human ecology, complex adaptive systems, participatory inquiry, sustainability Vicente L. Lopes (corresponding author) Department of Biology Texas State University San Marcos, TX, USA e-mail: vlopes@txstate.edu Jamie N. McNiel Department of Sociology Texas State University San Marcos, TX, USATable 2 - Comparing Orthodox versus Relational Approaches to Ecological Inquiry * Retroduction, logical reasoning that something must be true because it was known to be true in the past Table 1 - Common Dualisms Prevalent in Western Thinking

Process-Driven Ecological Modeling for Landscape Change Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altman, S.; Reif, M. K.; Swannack, T. M.

2013-12-01

Landscape pattern is an important driver in ecosystem dynamics and can control system-level functions such as nutrient cycling, connectivity, biodiversity and carbon sequestration. However, the links between process, pattern and function remain ambiguous. Understanding the quantitative relationship between ecological processes and landscape pattern across temporal and spatial scales is vital for successful management and implementation of ecosystem-level projects. We used remote sensing imagery to develop critical landscape metrics to understand the factors influencing landscape change. Our study area, a coastal area in southwest Florida, is highly dynamic with critically eroding beaches and a range of natural and developed land cover types. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 caused a breach along the coast of North Captiva Island that filled in by 2010. We used a time series of light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data and hyperspectral imagery from 2006 and 2010 to determine land cover changes. Landscape level metrics used included: Largest Patch Index, Class Area, Area-weighted mean area, Clumpiness, Area-weighted Contiguity Index, Number of Patches, Percent of landcover, Area-weighted Shape. Our results showed 1) 27% increase in sand/soil class as the channel repaired itself and shoreline was reestablished, 2) 40% decrease in the mudflat class area due to conversion to sand/soil and water, 3) 30% increase in non-wetland vegetation class as a result of new vegetation around the repaired channel, and 4) the water class only slightly increased though there was a marked increase in the patch size area. Thus, the smaller channels disappeared with the infilling of the channel, leaving much larger, less complex patches behind the breach. Our analysis demonstrated that quantification of landscape pattern is critical to linking patterns to ecological processes and understanding how both affect landscape change. Our proof of concept indicated that ecological processes can correlate to landscape pattern and that ecosystem function changes significantly as pattern changes. However, the number of links between landscape metrics and ecological processes are highly variable. Extensively studied processes such as biodiversity can be linked to numerous landscape metrics. In contrast, correlations between sediment cycling and landscape pattern have only been evaluated for a limited number of metrics. We are incorporating these data into a relational database linking landscape and ecological patterns, processes and metrics. The database will be used to parameterize site-specific landscape evolution models projecting how landscape pattern will change as a result of future ecosystem restoration projects. The model is a spatially-explicit, grid-based model that projects changes in community composition based on changes in soil elevations. To capture scalar differences in landscape change, local and regional landscape metrics are analyzed at each time step and correlated with ecological processes to determine how ecosystem function changes with scale over time.

The impacts of climate and land-use change scenarios on river ecology: the case of Margaritifera margaritifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Regina; Fernandes, Luís; Varandas, Simone; Pereira, Mário; Sousa, Ronaldo; Teixeira, Amilcar; Lopes-Lima, Manuel; Cortes, Rui; Pacheco, Fernando

2015-04-01

Climate change is one of the most important causes of biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems and it is expected to cause extinctions in many species in the future. Freshwater ecosystems are also highly affected by anthropogenic pressures such as land use/land cover changes, water abstractions and impoundments. The aim of this study is to assess the impacts of future climate and land-use in the Beça River (northern Portugal) namely on the conservation status of the endangered pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera (Linnaeus, 1758). This is an environmental indicator and endangered species currently present in several stretches of the Beça River that still hold adequate ecological conditions. However, the species is threatened by the precipitation decrease projected for the 21st century and the deviation of a significant portion of the river water to an adjacent watershed (since 1998). This decrease in river water can be especially acute during the summer months, forming small pools dispersed along the water course where M. margaritifera, and its host (Salmo trutta), barely find biological conditions for survival. The materials and methods used in this study include; (i) the assessment of water quality based on minimum, maximum and average values of relevant physicochemical parameters within the period 2000-2009; (ii) assessment of future climate change settings based on air temperature and precipitation projected by Regional and Global Circulation Models for recent past (1961 - 1990) and future climate scenarios (2071 - 2099); (iii) data processing to remove the model biases; and, (iv) integrated watershed modelling with river-planning (Mike Basin) and broad GIS (ArcMap) computer packages. Our findings comprise: (i); a good relationship between current wildfire incidence and river water quality; (ii) an increase in the future air temperature throughout the year; (iii) increases in future precipitations during winter and decreases during the other seasons; (iv) major runoff decrease more likely to occur between April and June and in October (<-30% in both future scenarios) which may reach -50%; (v) a decrease in the simulated average water depth in most river sections leading to habitat fragmentation by loss of connectivity during the summer season (water depth < 10 cm) with reverberating effects on the mobility of Salmo trutta, which may impair the reproduction and recruitment of pearl mussels. In addition, human-related threats mostly associated with the presence of dams and wildfires are expected to increase in the future. The presence of dams contribute to an additional decrease in the connectivity and river flow while the forest fires are a major threat, related to the wash out of burned areas during storms, eventually causing the disappearance of the mussels, especially the juveniles. In view of future climate and land-use change scenarios, conservation strategies are proposed to maintain good status and enable recovery, including the negotiation of ecological flows with the river board authorities, the replanting of riparian vegetation along the water course and the reintroduction of native tree species throughout the catchment. This work was supported by national funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project PEst-OE/AGR/UI4033/2014 and by the project SUSTAINSYS: Environmental Sustainable Agro-Forestry Systems (NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-000044), financed by the North Portugal Regional Operational Programme (ON.2 - O Novo Norte), under the National Strategic Reference Framework (QREN), through the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER), as well as by National Funds (PIDDAC) through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT/MEC).

Modeling the Effects of Drought, Fire, Beetles, and Management on Future Carbon Cycling in the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hicke, J. A.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Levis, S.; Kent, J.

2017-12-01

Fire and beetle outbreaks can have substantial impacts on forest structure, composition, and function and these types of disturbances are expected to increase in the future. Therefore understanding the ecological impacts of these disturbances into the future is important. We used ecosystem process modeling to estimate the future occurrence of fire and beetle outbreaks and their impacts on forest resilience and carbon sequestration. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to better represent forest growth and mortality in the western US through multiple avenues: 1) we increased the ecological resolution to recognize 14 forest types common to the region; 2) we improved CLM4.5's ability to handle drought stress by adding forest type-specific controls on stomatal conductance and increased rates of leaf shed during periods of low soil moisture; 3) we developed and implemented a mechanistic model of beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality; 4) we modified the current fire module to account for more refined forest types; and 5) we developed multiple scenarios of harvest based on past harvest rates and proposed changes in land management policies. We ran CLM4.5 in offline mode with climate forcing data. We compare future forest growth rates and carbon sequestration with historical metrics to estimate the combined influence of future disturbances on forest composition and carbon sequestration in the western US.

Why evolutionary biologists should get seriously involved in ecological monitoring and applied biodiversity assessment programs

PubMed Central

Brodersen, Jakob; Seehausen, Ole

2014-01-01

While ecological monitoring and biodiversity assessment programs are widely implemented and relatively well developed to survey and monitor the structure and dynamics of populations and communities in many ecosystems, quantitative assessment and monitoring of genetic and phenotypic diversity that is important to understand evolutionary dynamics is only rarely integrated. As a consequence, monitoring programs often fail to detect changes in these key components of biodiversity until after major loss of diversity has occurred. The extensive efforts in ecological monitoring have generated large data sets of unique value to macro-scale and long-term ecological research, but the insights gained from such data sets could be multiplied by the inclusion of evolutionary biological approaches. We argue that the lack of process-based evolutionary thinking in ecological monitoring means a significant loss of opportunity for research and conservation. Assessment of genetic and phenotypic variation within and between species needs to be fully integrated to safeguard biodiversity and the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in natural ecosystems. We illustrate our case with examples from fishes and conclude with examples of ongoing monitoring programs and provide suggestions on how to improve future quantitative diversity surveys. PMID:25553061

Chromosome inversions and ecological plasticity in the main African malaria mosquitoes

PubMed Central

Ayala, Diego; Acevedo, Pelayo; Pombi, Marco; Dia, Ibrahima; Boccolini, Daniela; Costantini, Carlo; Simard, Frédéric; Fontenille, Didier

2017-01-01

Chromosome inversions have fascinated the scientific community, mainly because of their role in the rapid adaption of different taxa to changing environments. However, the ecological traits linked to chromosome inversions have been poorly studied. Here, we investigated the roles played by 23 chromosome inversions in the adaptation of the four major African malaria mosquitoes to local environments in Africa. We studied their distribution patterns by using spatially explicit modeling and characterized the ecogeographical determinants of each inversion range. We then performed hierarchical clustering and constrained ordination analyses to assess the spatial and ecological similarities among inversions. Our results show that most inversions are environmentally structured, suggesting that they are actively involved in processes of local adaptation. Some inversions exhibited similar geographical patterns and ecological requirements among the four mosquito species, providing evidence for parallel evolution. Conversely, common inversion polymorphisms between sibling species displayed divergent ecological patterns, suggesting that they might have a different adaptive role in each species. These results are in agreement with the finding that chromosomal inversions play a role in Anopheles ecotypic adaptation. This study establishes a strong ecological basis for future genome-based analyses to elucidate the genetic mechanisms of local adaptation in these four mosquitoes. PMID:28071788

Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millar, C.I.; Stephenson, N.L.; Stephens, S.L.

2007-01-01

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Sustaining healthy freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Poff, N.L.

2004-01-01

Functionally intact and biologically complex freshwater ecosystems provide many economically valuable commodities and services to society. The services supplied by freshwater ecosystems include flood control, transportation, recreation, purification of human and industrial wastes, habitat for plants and animals, and production of fish and other foods and marketable goods. These human benefits are called ecological services, defined as “the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and the species that make them up, sustain and fulfill human life” (Daily 1997). Over the long term, healthy freshwater ecosystems are likely to retain the adaptive capacity to sustain production of these ecological services in the face of future environmental disruptions such as climate change.

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE PAGES

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.; ...

2018-02-01

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Risk and resilience in an uncertain world

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriette I.; Wolfe, Amy K.

We report that because the future is uncertain and to some extent unknowable, it is imperative that ecologists become involved in the discussion and planning of future infrastructure and protection from the effects of altered disturbance regimes. Research can test and demonstrate the benefits of protecting or proactively managing important features and places, and processes that enhance provisioning of ecosystem services such as flood control and fire mitigation. In conclusion, it is time to demonstrate how ecological science, when applied to human–environmental systems, can reduce risks and enhance resilience in a complex, changing world.

Tradeoffs among carbon, biodiversity, and economic returns for future land-use scenarios in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, D. N.; Nelson, E.; Polasky, S.; Plantinga, A.; Lewis, D.; Whithey, J.; Radeloff, V.; Lawler, J.; White, D.; Martinuzzi, S.; Helmers, D.; Lonsdorf, E.

2011-12-01

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, changes ecosystem processes, and causes ultimately the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected future land use at both the fine-spatial scale relevant for many ecological processes and at the larger regional levels relevant for large-scale policy making. We use an econometric model to predict business as usual land-use change across the continental US with 100-m resolution in 5-year time steps from 2001 to 2051. We then simulate the affect of various national-level tax, subsidy, and zoning policies on expected land-use change over this time frame. Further, we model the impact of projected land-use change under business as usual and the various policy scenarios on carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation in the conterminous United States. Our results showed that overall, land use composition will remain fairly stable, but there are considerable regional changes. Differences among policy scenarios were relatively minor highlighting that the underlying economic drivers of land use patterns are strong, and even fairly drastic policies may not be able to change these.

How ocean acidification can benefit calcifiers.

PubMed

Connell, Sean D; Doubleday, Zoë A; Hamlyn, Sarah B; Foster, Nicole R; Harley, Christopher D G; Helmuth, Brian; Kelaher, Brendan P; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Sarà, Gianluca; Russell, Bayden D

2017-02-06

Reduction in seawater pH due to rising levels of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the world's oceans is a major force set to shape the future of marine ecosystems and the ecological services they provide [1,2]. In particular, ocean acidification is predicted to have a detrimental effect on the physiology of calcifying organisms [3]. Yet, the indirect effects of ocean acidification on calcifying organisms, which may counter or exacerbate direct effects, is uncertain. Using volcanic CO 2 vents, we tested the indirect effects of ocean acidification on a calcifying herbivore (gastropod) within the natural complexity of an ecological system. Contrary to predictions, the abundance of this calcifier was greater at vent sites (with near-future CO 2 levels). Furthermore, translocation experiments demonstrated that ocean acidification did not drive increases in gastropod abundance directly, but indirectly as a function of increased habitat and food (algal biomass). We conclude that the effect of ocean acidification on algae (primary producers) can have a strong, indirect positive influence on the abundance of some calcifying herbivores, which can overwhelm any direct negative effects. This finding points to the need to understand ecological processes that buffer the negative effects of environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrological threats to riparian wetlands of international importance - a global quantitative and qualitative analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Christof; Flörke, Martina; De Stefano, Lucia; Petersen-Perlman, Jacob D.

2017-06-01

Riparian wetlands have been disappearing at an accelerating rate. Their ecological integrity as well as their vital ecosystem services for humankind depend on regular patterns of inundation and drying provided by natural flow regimes. However, river hydrology has been altered worldwide. Dams cause less variable flow regimes and water abstractions decrease the amount of flow so that ecologically important flood pulses are often reduced. Given growing population pressure and projected climate change, immediate action is required. However, the implementation of counteractive measures is often a complex task. This study develops a screening tool for assessing hydrological threats to riparian wetlands on global scales. The approach is exemplified on 93 Ramsar sites, many of which are located in transboundary basins. First, the WaterGAP3 hydrological modeling framework is used to quantitatively compare current and future modified flow regimes to reference flow conditions. In our simulations current water resource management seriously impairs riparian wetland inundation at 29 % of the analyzed sites. A further 8 % experience significantly reduced flood pulses. In the future, eastern Europe, western Asia, as well as central South America could be hotspots of further flow modifications due to climate change. Second, a qualitative analysis of the 93 sites determined potential impact on overbank flows resulting from planned or proposed dam construction projects. They take place in one-third of the upstream areas and are likely to impair especially wetlands located in South America, Asia, and the Balkan Peninsula. Third, based on the existing legal/institutional framework and water resource availability upstream, further qualitative analysis evaluated the capacity to preserve overbank flows given future streamflow changes due to dam construction and climate change. Results indicate hotspots of vulnerability exist, especially in northern Africa and the Persian Gulf.

Understanding past, contemporary, and future dynamics of plants, populations, and communities using Sonoran Desert winter annuals.

PubMed

Huxman, Travis E; Kimball, Sarah; Angert, Amy L; Gremer, Jennifer R; Barron-Gafford, Greg A; Venable, D Lawrence

2013-07-01

Global change requires plant ecologists to predict future states of biological diversity to aid the management of natural communities, thus introducing a number of significant challenges. One major challenge is considering how the many interacting features of biological systems, including ecophysiological processes, plant life histories, and species interactions, relate to performance in the face of a changing environment. We have employed a functional trait approach to understand the individual, population, and community dynamics of a model system of Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. We have used a comprehensive approach that connects physiological ecology and comparative biology to population and community dynamics, while emphasizing both ecological and evolutionary processes. This approach has led to a fairly robust understanding of past and contemporary dynamics in response to changes in climate. In this community, there is striking variation in physiological and demographic responses to both precipitation and temperature that is described by a trade-off between water-use efficiency (WUE) and relative growth rate (RGR). This community-wide trade-off predicts both the demographic and life history variation that contribute to species coexistence. Our framework has provided a mechanistic explanation to the recent warming, drying, and climate variability that has driven a surprising shift in these communities: cold-adapted species with more buffered population dynamics have increased in relative abundance. These types of comprehensive approaches that acknowledge the hierarchical nature of biology may be especially useful in aiding prediction. The emerging, novel and nonstationary climate constrains our use of simplistic statistical representations of past plant behavior in predicting the future, without understanding the mechanistic basis of change.

A Socio-Ecological Approach for Identifying and Contextualising Spatial Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Priorities at the Sub-National Level

PubMed Central

Bourne, Amanda; Holness, Stephen; Holden, Petra; Scorgie, Sarshen; Donatti, Camila I.; Midgley, Guy

2016-01-01

Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world. PMID:27227671

A Socio-Ecological Approach for Identifying and Contextualising Spatial Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Priorities at the Sub-National Level.

PubMed

Bourne, Amanda; Holness, Stephen; Holden, Petra; Scorgie, Sarshen; Donatti, Camila I; Midgley, Guy

2016-01-01

Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world.

The effect of range changes on the functional turnover, structure and diversity of bird assemblages under future climate scenarios.

PubMed

Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Jetz, Walter

2015-08-01

Animal assemblages fulfill a critical set of ecological functions for ecosystems that may be altered substantially as climate change-induced distribution changes lead to community disaggregation and reassembly. We combine species and community perspectives to assess the consequences of projected geographic range changes for the diverse functional attributes of avian assemblages worldwide. Assemblage functional structure is projected to change highly unevenly across space. These differences arise from both changes in the number of species and changes in species' relative local functional redundancy or distinctness. They sometimes result in substantial losses of functional diversity that could have severe consequences for ecosystem health. Range expansions may counter functional losses in high-latitude regions, but offer little compensation in many tropical and subtropical biomes. Future management of local community function and ecosystem services thus relies on understanding the global dynamics of species distributions and multiscale approaches that include the biogeographic context of species traits. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Unrecognized coral species diversity masks differences in functional ecology

PubMed Central

Boulay, Jennifer N.; Hellberg, Michael E.; Cortés, Jorge; Baums, Iliana B.

2014-01-01

Porites corals are foundation species on Pacific reefs but a confused taxonomy hinders understanding of their ecosystem function and responses to climate change. Here, we show that what has been considered a single species in the eastern tropical Pacific, Porites lobata, includes a morphologically similar yet ecologically distinct species, Porites evermanni. While P. lobata reproduces mainly sexually, P. evermanni dominates in areas where triggerfish prey on bioeroding mussels living within the coral skeleton, thereby generating asexual coral fragments. These fragments proliferate in marginal habitat not colonized by P. lobata. The two Porites species also show a differential bleaching response despite hosting the same dominant symbiont subclade. Thus, hidden diversity within these reef-builders has until now obscured differences in trophic interactions, reproductive dynamics and bleaching susceptibility, indicative of differential responses when confronted with future climate change. PMID:24335977

Unrecognized coral species diversity masks differences in functional ecology.

PubMed

Boulay, Jennifer N; Hellberg, Michael E; Cortés, Jorge; Baums, Iliana B

2014-02-07

Porites corals are foundation species on Pacific reefs but a confused taxonomy hinders understanding of their ecosystem function and responses to climate change. Here, we show that what has been considered a single species in the eastern tropical Pacific, Porites lobata, includes a morphologically similar yet ecologically distinct species, Porites evermanni. While P. lobata reproduces mainly sexually, P. evermanni dominates in areas where triggerfish prey on bioeroding mussels living within the coral skeleton, thereby generating asexual coral fragments. These fragments proliferate in marginal habitat not colonized by P. lobata. The two Porites species also show a differential bleaching response despite hosting the same dominant symbiont subclade. Thus, hidden diversity within these reef-builders has until now obscured differences in trophic interactions, reproductive dynamics and bleaching susceptibility, indicative of differential responses when confronted with future climate change.

Stakeholders' perceptions of social-ecological systems and the information they use in the management of freshwater resources in Guanacaste, Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Parodi, G.; Babcock, M.; Small, M.; Grossmann, I.

2014-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase the chances of drought, and shift precipitation patterns in seasonally dry places. In some places, the heuristics or "rules of thumb" that stakeholders use may no longer be reliable for the effective management of water resources. This can have dire consequences for social and ecological systems, especially in developing countries. Scientists and policymakers view climate forecasts as one way for improving informed decision-making about freshwater resources. However, successful communication requires that stakeholders understand and are able to use such information. To develop effective communications, it is critical to characterize stakeholders' understanding of social-ecological systems as related to water, the type of information used to inform management decisions, and the perceived value of forecast information. To achieve our objective, we conducted 40 semi-structured interviews with farmers, water managers, hydroelectric utilities, local climate experts, tourism industry representatives, and members of the general public in the semi-arid region of Guanacaste, Costa Rica. People believe that they have enough water at this time however they believe that the region will become much drier in the future, which they attribute to climate change, El Nino/La Nina, and deforestation. With respect to the value of forecast information, we found that the scale of decision-making (e.g., irrigation district versus small farmer) was associated with a stakeholders' level of "technical sophistication" and trust in government. In future work, we will evaluate the prevalence of these beliefs and practices in the larger population in order to identify effective ways to tailor the presentation of forecast information for different audiences. This work provides insight into the development of forecast communications to improve the management of resources in development countries in the face of a changing climate.

Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dearing, John A.; Bullock, Seth; Costanza, Robert; Dawson, Terry P.; Edwards, Mary E.; Poppy, Guy M.; Smith, Graham M.

2012-04-01

The `Perfect Storm' metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

Understanding potential impacts of climate change is complicated by spatially mismatched land representations between gridded datasets and models, and land use models with larger regions defined by geopolitical and/or biophysical criteria. Here in this study, we quantify the sensitivity of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) outputs to the delineation of Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs), which are normally based on historical (1961–1990) climate. We reconstruct GCAM's land regions using projected (2071–2100) climate, and find large differences in estimated future land use that correspond with differences in agricultural commodity prices and production volumes. Importantly, historically delineated AEZs experience spatially heterogeneous climate impacts overmore » time, and do not necessarily provide more homogenous initial land productivity than projected AEZs. Finally, we conclude that non-climatic criteria for land use region delineation are likely preferable for modeling land use change in the context of climate change, and that uncertainty associated with land delineation needs to be quantified.« less

What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?

DOE PAGES

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.

2016-09-03

Understanding potential impacts of climate change is complicated by spatially mismatched land representations between gridded datasets and models, and land use models with larger regions defined by geopolitical and/or biophysical criteria. Here in this study, we quantify the sensitivity of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) outputs to the delineation of Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs), which are normally based on historical (1961–1990) climate. We reconstruct GCAM's land regions using projected (2071–2100) climate, and find large differences in estimated future land use that correspond with differences in agricultural commodity prices and production volumes. Importantly, historically delineated AEZs experience spatially heterogeneous climate impacts overmore » time, and do not necessarily provide more homogenous initial land productivity than projected AEZs. Finally, we conclude that non-climatic criteria for land use region delineation are likely preferable for modeling land use change in the context of climate change, and that uncertainty associated with land delineation needs to be quantified.« less

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carr, Natasha B.; Means, Robert E.

2013-01-01

The overall goal of the Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change (including energy development, fire, and invasive species), and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks (including climate change). Additionally, the REA may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing cumulative effects of multiple land uses. The Wyoming Basin REA will address Management Questions developed by the Bureau of Land Management and other agency partners for 8 major biomes and 19 species or species assemblages. The maps developed for addressing Management Questions will be integrated into overall maps of landscape-level ecological values and risks. The maps can be used to address the goals of the REA at a number of levels: for individual species, species assemblages, aquatic and terrestrial systems, and for the entire ecoregion. This allows flexibility in how the products of the REA are compiled to inform planning and management actions across a broad range of spatial scales.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Perry J.; Kottenstette, Richard Joseph; Crouch, Shannon M.

The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is an ambitious National Science Foundation sponsored project intended to accumulate and disseminate ecologically informative sensor data from sites among 20 distinct biomes found within the United States and Puerto Rico over a period of at least 30 years. These data are expected to provide valuable insights into the ecological impacts of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species in these various biomes, and thereby provide a scientific foundation for the decisions of future national, regional, and local policy makers. NEON's objectives are of substantial national and international importance, yet they must be achievedmore » with limited resources. Sandia National Laboratories was therefore contracted to examine four areas of significant systems engineering concern; specifically, alternatives to commercial electrical utility power for remote operations, approaches to data acquisition and local data handling, protocols for secure long-distance data transmission, and processes and procedures for the introduction of new instruments and continuous improvement of the sensor network. The results of these preliminary systems engineering evaluations are presented, with a series of recommendations intended to optimize the efficiency and probability of long-term success for the NEON enterprise.« less

Emerging themes in the ecology and management of North American forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharik, Terry L.; Adair, William; Baker, Fred A.; Battaglia, Michael; Comfort, Emily J.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Delong, Craig; DeRose, R. Justin; Ducey, Mark J.; Harmon, Mark; Levy, Louise; Logan, Jesse A.; O'Brien, Joseph; Palik, Brian J.; Roberts, Scott D.; Rogers, Paul C.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Spies, Thomas; Taylor, Sarah L.; Woodall, Christopher; Youngblood, Andrew

2010-01-01

The 7th North American Forest Ecology Workshop, consisting of 149 presentations in 16 oral sessions and a poster session, reflected a broad range of topical areas currently under investigation in forest ecology and management. There was an overarching emphasis on the role of disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic, in the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and the recognition that legacies from past disturbances strongly influence future trajectories. Climate was invoked as a major driver of ecosystem change. An emphasis was placed on application of research findings for predicting system responses to changing forest management initiatives. Several “needs” emerged from the discussions regarding approaches to the study of forest ecosystems, including (1) consideration of variable spatial and temporal scales, (2) long-term monitoring, (3) development of universal databases more encompassing of time and space to facilitate meta-analyses, (4) combining field studies and modeling approaches, (5) standardizing methods of measurement and assessment, (6) guarding against oversimplification or overgeneralization from limited site-specific results, (7) greater emphasis on plant-animal interactions, and (8) better alignment of needs and communication of results between researchers and managers.

Land use diversification and intensification on elk winter range in Greater Yellowstone: A framework and agenda for social-ecological research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haggerty, Julia Hobson; Epstein, Kathleen; Stone, Michael; Cross, Paul

2018-01-01

Amenity migration describes the movement of peoples to rural landscapes and the transition toward tourism and recreation and away from production-oriented land uses (ranching, timber harvesting). The resulting mosaic of land uses and community structures has important consequences for wildlife and their management. This research note examines amenity-driven changes to social-ecological systems in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, specifically in lower elevations that serve as winter habitat for elk. We present a research agenda informed by a preliminary and exploratory mixed-methods investigation: the creation of a “social-impact” index of land use change on elk winter range and a focus group with wildlife management experts. Our findings suggest that elk are encountering an increasingly diverse landscape with respect to land use, while new ownership patterns increase the complexity of social and community dynamics. These factors, in turn, contribute to increasing difficulty meeting wildlife management objectives. To deal with rising complexity across social and ecological landscapes of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, future research will focus on property life cycle dynamics, as well as systems approaches.

Forecasting Responses of a Northern Peatland Carbon Cycle to Elevated CO2 and a Gradient of Experimental Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Jiang; Huang, Yuanyuan; Ma, Shuang; Stacy, Mark; Shi, Zheng; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Hanson, Paul J.; Luo, Yiqi

2018-03-01

The ability to forecast ecological carbon cycling is imperative to land management in a world where past carbon fluxes are no longer a clear guide in the Anthropocene. However, carbon-flux forecasting has not been practiced routinely like numerical weather prediction. This study explored (1) the relative contributions of model forcing data and parameters to uncertainty in forecasting flux- versus pool-based carbon cycle variables and (2) the time points when temperature and CO2 treatments may cause statistically detectable differences in those variables. We developed an online forecasting workflow (Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD)), which facilitates iterative data-model integration. EcoPAD automates data transfer from sensor networks, data assimilation, and ecological forecasting. We used the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Experiments data collected from 2011 to 2014 to constrain the parameters in the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, forecast carbon cycle responses to elevated CO2 and a gradient of warming from 2015 to 2024, and specify uncertainties in the model output. Our results showed that data assimilation substantially reduces forecasting uncertainties. Interestingly, we found that the stochasticity of future external forcing contributed more to the uncertainty of forecasting future dynamics of C flux-related variables than model parameters. However, the parameter uncertainty primarily contributes to the uncertainty in forecasting C pool-related response variables. Given the uncertainties in forecasting carbon fluxes and pools, our analysis showed that statistically different responses of fast-turnover pools to various CO2 and warming treatments were observed sooner than slow-turnover pools. Our study has identified the sources of uncertainties in model prediction and thus leads to improve ecological carbon cycling forecasts in the future.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands.

PubMed

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K; Hall, Sonia A; Duniway, Michael C; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M; Pyke, David A; Wilson, Scott D

2017-07-01

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.

2017-01-01

Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Ecological, biogeochemical and salinity changes in coastal lakes and wetlands over the last 200 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Lucy; Holmes, Jonathan; Horne, David

2016-04-01

Shallow lakes provide extensive ecosystem services and are ecologically important aquatic resources supporting a diverse flora and fauna. In marginal-marine areas, where such lakes are subjected to the multiple pressures of coastal erosion, sea level rise, increasing sea surface temperature and increasing frequency and intensity of storm surges, environments are complex and unstable. They are characterised by physico-chemical variations due to climatic (precipitation/evaporation cycles) and dynamic factors (tides, currents, freshwater drainage and sea level changes). Combined with human activity in the catchment these processes can alter the salinity, habitat and ecology of coastal fresh- to brackish water ecosystems. In this study the chemical and biological stability of coastal lakes forming the Upper Thurne catchment in the NE of the Norfolk Broads, East Anglia, UK are seriously threatened by long-term changes in salinity resulting from storm surges, complex hydrogeology and anthropogenic activity in the catchment. Future management decisions depend on a sound understanding of the potential ecological impacts, but such understanding is limited by short-term observations and measurements. This research uses palaeolimnological approaches, which can be validated and calibrated with historical records, to reconstruct changes in the aquatic environment on a longer time scale than can be achieved by observations alone. Here, salinity is quantitatively reconstructed using the trace-element geochemistry (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) of low Mg-calcite shells of Ostracoda (microscopic bivalved crustaceans) and macrophyte and macroinvertebrate macrofossil remains are used as a proxy to assess ecological change in response to variations in salinity. δ13C values of Cladocera (which are potentially outcompeted by the mysid Neomysis integer with increasing salinity and eutrophication) can be used to reconstruct carbon cycling and energy pathways in lake food webs, which alongside reconstructions of salinity and eutrophication can aid the disentanglement of environmental drivers and increase understanding on the interactions between ecology and biogeochemical cycles within the lake. Previous palaeolimnological work on the Thurne Broads system has suggested shifts between macrophyte abundance and loss within a framework of rising salinity (varying between 1.8-8.7‰ and eutrophication (phosphorus loading greater than 100μg-1). A complex combination of salinity, eutrophication, toxicity and associated changes in habitat have acted as drivers for ecological change over the past 200 years, but these interactions have not previously been well understood. By combining reconstructions of palaeosalinity, biodiversity, food web dynamics, redox conditions and eutrophication, the interaction between and controls on long-term variations in shallow lake environments can be further explored.

Toward more robust projections of forest landscape dynamics under novel environmental conditions: embedding PnET within LANDIS-II

Treesearch

A. De Bruijn; E.J. Gustafson; B.R. Sturtevant; J.R. Foster; B.R. Miranda; N.I. Lichti; D.F. Jacobs

2014-01-01

Ecological models built on phenomenological relationships and behavior of the past may not be robustunder novel conditions of the future because global changes are producing environmental conditions that forests have not experienced historically. We developed a new succession extension for the LANDIS-II forest landscape model, PnET-Succession, to simulate forest growth...

Chapter 9: Understanding our changing public values, resource uses, and engagement processes and practices

Treesearch

Lee K. Cerveny; Emily Jane Davis; Rebecca McLain; Clare M. Ryan; Debra R. Whitall; Eric M. White

2018-01-01

The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) signified a movement away from intensive focus on timber management that was common through the 1980s and toward an ecosystem management approach, which aims to conserve ecological conditions and restore natural resources while meeting the social, cultural, and economic needs of present and future generations (Brussard et al....

The climate-wildfire-air quality system: interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales

Treesearch

E. Natasha Stavros; Donald McKenzie; Narasimhan Larkin

2014-01-01

Future climate change and its effects on social and ecological systems present challenges for preserving valued ecosystem services, including local and regional air quality. Wildfire is a major source of air-quality impact in some locations, and a substantial contributor to pollutants of concern, including nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, which are regulated to...

Classifying forest inventory data into species-based forest community types at broad extents: exploring tradeoffs among supervised and unsupervised approaches

Treesearch

Jennifer K. Costanza; Don Faber-Langendoen; John W. Coulston; David N. Wear

2018-01-01

Background: Knowledge of the different kinds of tree communities that currently exist can provide a baseline for assessing the ecological attributes of forests and monitoring future changes. Forest inventory data can facilitate the development of this baseline knowledge across broad extents, but they first must be classified into forest...

The national fire and fire surrogate study: early results and future challenges

Treesearch

Thomas A. Waldrop; James McIver

2006-01-01

Fire-adapted ecosystems today have dense plant cover and heavy fuel loads as a result of fire exclusion and other changes in land use practices. Mechanical fuel treatments and prescribed fire are powerful tools for reducing wildfire potential, but the ecological consequences of their use is unknown. The National Fire and Fire Surrogate Study examines the effects of...

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses.

PubMed

Garcia, Elizabeth S; Swann, Abigail L S; Villegas, Juan C; Breshears, David D; Law, Darin J; Saleska, Scott R; Stark, Scott C

2016-01-01

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.

Ancient DNA from marine mammals: studying long-lived species over ecological and evolutionary timescales.

PubMed

Foote, Andrew D; Hofreiter, Michael; Morin, Phillip A

2012-01-20

Marine mammals have long generation times and broad, difficult to sample distributions, which makes inferring evolutionary and demographic changes using field studies of extant populations challenging. However, molecular analyses from sub-fossil or historical materials of marine mammals such as bone, tooth, baleen, skin, fur, whiskers and scrimshaw using ancient DNA (aDNA) approaches provide an opportunity for investigating such changes over evolutionary and ecological timescales. Here, we review the application of aDNA techniques to the study of marine mammals. Most of the studies have focused on detecting changes in genetic diversity following periods of exploitation and environmental change. To date, these studies have shown that even small sample sizes can provide useful information on historical genetic diversity. Ancient DNA has also been used in investigations of changes in distribution and range of marine mammal species; we review these studies and discuss the limitations of such 'presence only' studies. Combining aDNA data with stable isotopes can provide further insights into changes in ecology and we review past studies and suggest future potential applications. We also discuss studies reconstructing inter- and intra-specific phylogenies from aDNA sequences and discuss how aDNA sequences could be used to estimate mutation rates. Finally, we highlight some of the problems of aDNA studies on marine mammals, such as obtaining sufficient sample sizes and calibrating for the marine reservoir effect when radiocarbon-dating such wide-ranging species. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Time discounting and protected-area priorities.

PubMed

Armsworth, Paul R

2018-05-08

Should conservation organizations focus on protecting habitats that are at imminent risk of being converted but are expensive or more remote areas that are less immediately threatened but where a large amount of land can be set aside? Variants of this trade-off commonly arise in spatial planning. We examined this trade-off using models of land use change near a deforestation frontier. The optimal choice of where to protect was determined by how decisions taken today accounted for ecological benefits and economic costs of conservation actions that would occur sometime in the future. We used an ecological and economic discount rate to weight these benefits and costs. A large economic discount rate favored protecting more remote areas, whereas a large, positive ecological discount rate favored protecting habitat near the current deforestation frontier. We also showed how the decision over where to protect was impacted by the influence that economic factors had in determining landowners' decisions, the rate of technological change and ecological heterogeneity of the landscape. How benefits and costs through time are accounted for warrants careful consideration when specifying conservation objectives. It may provide a niche axis along which conservation organizations differentiate themselves when competing for donor funding or other support. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Introduction to the Arizona Sky Island Arthropod Project (ASAP): Systematics, Biogeography, Ecology, and Population Genetics of Arthropods of the Madrean Sky Islands

PubMed Central

Moore, Wendy; Meyer, Wallace M.; Eble, Jeffrey A.; Franklin, Kimberly; Wiens, John F.; Brusca, Richard C.

2014-01-01

The Arizona Sky Island Arthropod Project (ASAP) is a new multi-disciplinary research program at the University of Arizona that combines systematics, biogeography, ecology, and population genetics to study origins and patterns of arthropod diversity along elevation gradients and among mountain ranges in the Madrean Sky Island Region. Arthropods represent taxonomically and ecologically diverse organisms that drive key ecosystem processes in this mountain archipelago. Using data from museum specimens and specimens we obtain during long-term collecting and monitoring programs, ASAP will document arthropod species across Arizona's Sky Islands to address a number of fundamental questions about arthropods of this region. Baseline data will be used to determine climatic boundaries for target species, which will then be integrated with climatological models to predict future changes in arthropod communities and distributions in the wake of rapid climate change. ASAP also makes use of the natural laboratory provided by the Sky Islands to investigate ecological and genetic factors that influence diversification and patterns of community assembly. Here, we introduce the project, outline overarching goals, and describe preliminary data from the first year of sampling ground-dwelling beetles and ants in the Santa Catalina Mountains. PMID:25505938

The eco-evolutionary impacts of domestication and agricultural practices on wild species.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Araki, Hitoshi; Karp, Daniel S; Poveda, Katja; Whitehead, Susan R

2017-01-19

Agriculture is a dominant evolutionary force that drives the evolution of both domesticated and wild species. However, the various mechanisms of agriculture-induced evolution and their socio-ecological consequences are not often synthetically discussed. Here, we explore how agricultural practices and evolutionary changes in domesticated species cause evolution in wild species. We do so by examining three processes by which agriculture drives evolution. First, differences in the traits of domesticated species, compared with their wild ancestors, alter the selective environment and create opportunities for wild species to specialize. Second, selection caused by agricultural practices, including both those meant to maximize productivity and those meant to control pest species, can lead to pest adaptation. Third, agriculture can cause non-selective changes in patterns of gene flow in wild species. We review evidence for these processes and then discuss their ecological and sociological impacts. We finish by identifying important knowledge gaps and future directions related to the eco-evolutionary impacts of agriculture including their extent, how to prevent the detrimental evolution of wild species, and finally, how to use evolution to minimize the ecological impacts of agriculture.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'. © 2016 The Author(s).

The eco-evolutionary impacts of domestication and agricultural practices on wild species

PubMed Central

Araki, Hitoshi; Karp, Daniel S.; Poveda, Katja

2017-01-01

Agriculture is a dominant evolutionary force that drives the evolution of both domesticated and wild species. However, the various mechanisms of agriculture-induced evolution and their socio-ecological consequences are not often synthetically discussed. Here, we explore how agricultural practices and evolutionary changes in domesticated species cause evolution in wild species. We do so by examining three processes by which agriculture drives evolution. First, differences in the traits of domesticated species, compared with their wild ancestors, alter the selective environment and create opportunities for wild species to specialize. Second, selection caused by agricultural practices, including both those meant to maximize productivity and those meant to control pest species, can lead to pest adaptation. Third, agriculture can cause non-selective changes in patterns of gene flow in wild species. We review evidence for these processes and then discuss their ecological and sociological impacts. We finish by identifying important knowledge gaps and future directions related to the eco-evolutionary impacts of agriculture including their extent, how to prevent the detrimental evolution of wild species, and finally, how to use evolution to minimize the ecological impacts of agriculture. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences’. PMID:27920378

Impact of temperature on performance in two species of South African dwarf chameleon, Bradypodion pumilum and B. occidentale.

PubMed

Segall, Marion; Tolley, Krystal A; Vanhooydonck, Bieke; Measey, G John; Herrel, Anthony

2013-10-15

Temperature is an extrinsic factor that influences reptile behavior because of its impact on reptile physiology. Understanding the impact of temperature on performance traits is important as it may affect the ecology and fitness of ectothermic animals such as reptiles. Here, we examined the temperature dependence of performance in two species of South African dwarf chameleon (Bradypodion): one adapted to a semi-arid environment and one to a mesic environment. Ecologically relevant performance traits were tested at different temperatures to evaluate their thermal dependence, and temperature-performance breadths for 80% and 90% of each performance trait were calculated. Our results show distinct differences in the thermal dependence of speed- versus force-related performance traits. Moreover, our results show that the semi-arid species is better adapted to higher temperatures and as such has a better chance of coping with the predicted increases in environmental temperature. The mesic area-adapted species seems to be more sensitive to an increase in temperature and could therefore potentially be threatened by the predicted future climate change. However, further studies investigating the potential for acclimation in chameleons are needed to better understand how animals may respond to future climate change.

Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems.

PubMed

Ladwig, Laura M; Ratajczak, Zak R; Ocheltree, Troy W; Hafich, Katya A; Churchill, Amber C; Frey, Sarah J K; Fuss, Colin B; Kazanski, Clare E; Muñoz, Juan D; Petrie, Matthew D; Reinmann, Andrew B; Smith, Jane G

2016-02-01

Winter climate is expected to change under future climate scenarios, yet the majority of winter ecology research is focused in cold-climate ecosystems. In many temperate systems, it is unclear how winter climate relates to biotic responses during the growing season. The objective of this study was to examine how winter weather relates to plant and animal communities in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems ranging from warm deserts to alpine tundra. Specifically, we examined the association between winter weather and plant phenology, plant species richness, consumer abundance, and consumer richness in 11 terrestrial ecosystems associated with the U.S. Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. To varying degrees, winter precipitation and temperature were correlated with all biotic response variables. Bud break was tightly aligned with end of winter temperatures. For half the sites, winter weather was a better predictor of plant species richness than growing season weather. Warmer winters were correlated with lower consumer abundances in both temperate and alpine systems. Our findings suggest winter weather may have a strong influence on biotic activity during the growing season and should be considered in future studies investigating the effects of climate change on both alpine and temperate systems.

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

PubMed Central

Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

PubMed

Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

PubMed

García Molinos, Jorge; Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Burrows, Michael T; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamano, Hiroya

2017-10-01

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Current and future ozone risks to global terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem processes.

PubMed

Fuhrer, Jürg; Val Martin, Maria; Mills, Gina; Heald, Colette L; Harmens, Harry; Hayes, Felicity; Sharps, Katrina; Bender, Jürgen; Ashmore, Mike R

2016-12-01

Risks associated with exposure of individual plant species to ozone (O 3 ) are well documented, but implications for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem processes have received insufficient attention. This is an important gap because feedbacks to the atmosphere may change as future O 3 levels increase or decrease, depending on air quality and climate policies. Global simulation of O 3 using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) revealed that in 2000, about 40% of the Global 200 terrestrial ecoregions (ER) were exposed to O 3 above thresholds for ecological risks, with highest exposures in North America and Southern Europe, where there is field evidence of adverse effects of O 3 , and in central Asia. Experimental studies show that O 3 can adversely affect the growth and flowering of plants and alter species composition and richness, although some communities can be resilient. Additional effects include changes in water flux regulation, pollination efficiency, and plant pathogen development. Recent research is unraveling a range of effects belowground, including changes in soil invertebrates, plant litter quantity and quality, decomposition, and nutrient cycling and carbon pools. Changes are likely slow and may take decades to become detectable. CESM simulations for 2050 show that O 3 exposure under emission scenario RCP8.5 increases in all major biomes and that policies represented in scenario RCP4.5 do not lead to a general reduction in O 3 risks; rather, 50% of ERs still show an increase in exposure. Although a conceptual model is lacking to extrapolate documented effects to ERs with limited or no local information, and there is uncertainty about interactions with nitrogen input and climate change, the analysis suggests that in many ERs, O 3 risks will persist for biodiversity at different trophic levels, and for a range of ecosystem processes and feedbacks, which deserves more attention when assessing ecological implications of future atmospheric pollution and climate change.

Species-specific ecological niche modelling predicts different range contractions for Lutzomyia intermedia and a related vector of Leishmania braziliensis following climate change in South America.

PubMed

McIntyre, Shannon; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Carvalho, Bruno M

2017-03-24

Before 1996 the phlebotomine sand fly Lutzomyia neivai was usually treated as a synonym of the morphologically similar Lutzomyia intermedia, which has long been considered a vector of Leishmania braziliensis, the causative agent of much cutaneous leishmaniasis in South America. This report investigates the likely range changes of both sand fly species in response to a stabilisation climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and a high greenhouse gas emissions one (RCP8.5). Ecological niche modelling was used to identify areas of South America with climates currently suitable for each species, and then the future distributions of these climates were predicted based on climate change scenarios. Compared with the previous ecological niche model of L. intermedia (sensu lato) produced using the GARP algorithm in 2003, the current investigation modelled the two species separately, making use of verified presence records and additional records after 2001. Also, the new ensemble approach employed ecological niche modelling algorithms (including Maximum Entropy, Random Forests and Support Vector Machines) that have been widely adopted since 2003 and perform better than GARP, as well as using a more recent climate change model (HadGEM2) considered to have better performance at higher resolution than the earlier one (HadCM2). Lutzomyia intermedia was shown to be the more tropical of the two species, with its climatic niche defined by higher annual mean temperatures and lower temperature seasonality, in contrast to the more subtropical L. neivai. These different latitudinal ranges explain the two species' predicted responses to climate change by 2050, with L. intermedia mostly contracting its range (except perhaps in northeast Brazil) and L. neivai mostly shifting its range southwards in Brazil and Argentina. This contradicts the findings of the 2003 report, which predicted more range expansion. The different findings can be explained by the improved data sets and modelling methods. Our findings indicate that climate change will not always lead to range expansion of disease vectors such as sand flies. Ecological niche models should be species specific, carefully selected and combined in an ensemble approach.

Camouflage through colour change: mechanisms, adaptive value and ecological significance

PubMed Central

Flores, Augusto A. V.

2017-01-01

Animals from a wide range of taxonomic groups are capable of colour change, of which camouflage is one of the main functions. A considerable amount of past work on this subject has investigated species capable of extremely rapid colour change (in seconds). However, relatively slow colour change (over hours, days, weeks and months), as well as changes arising via developmental plasticity are probably more common than rapid changes, yet less studied. We discuss three key areas of colour change and camouflage. First, we review the mechanisms underpinning colour change and developmental plasticity for camouflage, including cellular processes, visual feedback, hormonal control and dietary factors. Second, we discuss the adaptive value of colour change for camouflage, including the use of different camouflage types. Third, we discuss the evolutionary–ecological implications of colour change for concealment, including what it can tell us about intraspecific colour diversity, morph-specific strategies, and matching to different environments and microhabitats. Throughout, we discuss key unresolved questions and present directions for future work, and highlight how colour change facilitates camouflage among habitats and arises when animals are faced with environmental changes occurring over a range of spatial and temporal scales. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Animal coloration: production, perception, function and application’. PMID:28533459

Camouflage through colour change: mechanisms, adaptive value and ecological significance.

PubMed

Duarte, Rafael C; Flores, Augusto A V; Stevens, Martin

2017-07-05

Animals from a wide range of taxonomic groups are capable of colour change, of which camouflage is one of the main functions. A considerable amount of past work on this subject has investigated species capable of extremely rapid colour change (in seconds). However, relatively slow colour change (over hours, days, weeks and months), as well as changes arising via developmental plasticity are probably more common than rapid changes, yet less studied. We discuss three key areas of colour change and camouflage. First, we review the mechanisms underpinning colour change and developmental plasticity for camouflage, including cellular processes, visual feedback, hormonal control and dietary factors. Second, we discuss the adaptive value of colour change for camouflage, including the use of different camouflage types. Third, we discuss the evolutionary-ecological implications of colour change for concealment, including what it can tell us about intraspecific colour diversity, morph-specific strategies, and matching to different environments and microhabitats. Throughout, we discuss key unresolved questions and present directions for future work, and highlight how colour change facilitates camouflage among habitats and arises when animals are faced with environmental changes occurring over a range of spatial and temporal scales.This article is part of the themed issue 'Animal coloration: production, perception, function and application'. © 2017 The Authors.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

2013-12-01

Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience strong upslope shifting of open grassland, chaparral and hardwood types, which may be initiated by increased fire frequencies, particularly where fires have not recently burned within normal fire recurrence interval departures (FRID). An evaluation of four fire management strategies (business as usual; resist change; foster orderly change; protect vital resources) across four combinations of future climate and fire frequency found that no single management strategy was uniformly successful in protecting critical resources across the range of future conditions examined. This limitation is somewhat driven by current management constraints on the amount of management available to resource managers, which suggests management will need to use a triage approach to application of proactive fire management strategies, wherein MOC landscape projections can be used in decision support.

PROFILE: Integrating Stressor and Response Monitoring into a Resource-Based Water-Quality Assessment Framework.

PubMed

ROUX; KEMPSTER; KLEYNHANS; VAN; DU

1999-01-01

/ South African water law as well as the country's water resource management policies are currently under review. The Water Law Principles, which were established as part of this review process, indicate a commitment to sustainable development of water resources and the protection of an ecological "reserve." Such policy goals highlight the limitations of traditional and current water-quality management strategies, which rely on stressor monitoring and associated regulation of pollution. The concept of an assimilative capacity is central to the implementation of the current water-quality management approach. Weaknesses inherent in basing water management on the concept of assimilative capacity are discussed. Response monitoring is proposed as a way of addressing some of the weaknesses. Following a global trend, the new policy goals emphasize the need to protect rather than to use the ability of ecosystems to recover from disturbances. This necessitates the adoption of response measurements to quantify ecological condition and monitor ecological change. Response monitoring focuses on properties that are essential to the sustainability of the ecosystem. These monitoring tools can be used to establish natural ranges of ecological change within ecosystems, as well as to quantify conceptually acceptable and unacceptable ranges of change. Through a framework of biological criteria and biological impairment standards, the results of response monitoring can become an integral part of future water resource management strategies in South Africa. KEY WORDS: Stressor monitoring; Response monitoring; Assimilative capacity; Ecosystem stability; Resilience; Biocriteria

Environmental change and water-related, vector borne diseases in eastern Africa: the HEALTHY FUTURES project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, David; Kienberger, Stefan; Tompkins, Adrian

2015-04-01

Pathogens that spend time outside the human body, and any organisms involved in their transmission, have particular ecological requirements; as environment, including climate, conditions change, then the transmission characteristics of associated pathogens - and the diseases caused - are also likely to vary. Relationships between environment and health in many parts of the world remain poorly studied and are often overlooked, however. This is particularly the case in developing countries, because of budgetary and available expertise constraints. Moreover the relationship is often confounded by other factors. These other factors contribute to human vulnerability, and thus to the overall disease risk due to environmental change. This presentation will highlight the importance of environmental, including climate, change information to a better understanding of the risks to health of projected future environmental changes, and to the more efficient and effective use of scarce health resources in the developing world. The paper will focus on eastern Africa, and in particular the health effects of future projected environmental change impacts on water-related, vector borne diseases in the East African Community region. Moreover the paper will highlight how the EU FP7-funded project HEALTHY FUTURES is, through a broadly-based, integrative approach that distinguishes environmental change-induced health hazard from health risk aims to support the health decisions making process, thereby attempting to help mitigate negative health impacts.

The influence of environment and energy macro surroundings on the development of tourism in the 21st century.

PubMed

Jovicić, Dobrica

2012-06-01

Trying to anticipate the future of tourism may be a particularly fraught task. However, this does not mean that trying to predict the future of tourism is not without value. From a business perspective, examining the future enables firms to anticipate new business conditions and develop new strategies. From a destination perspective, reflections on the future enable consideration of how to maintain or improve the qualities of a destination. The paper is focused on an analysis of the impacts of the energy and ecological macro environments on tourism trends in 21st century. Mass international tourism has thrived on the abundant and cheap supply of energy, and this may be about to change as the world moves towards 'Peak Oil'. The resultant scarcity and high price of all energy fuels will produce changes in human activities, specifically in tourism. The basis of the health of the economy is the health of the environment. Therefore issues of global environmental changes are increasingly influencing consideration of trends in tourism. In this looming transitional era tourism needs to make some dramatic changes to harmonize with the new realities of a post-energy world affected additionaly by global warming and other environmental changes.

How will wind and water erosion change in drylands in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okin, G. S.; Sala, O.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Drylands are characterized as much by high spatial and temporal variability as they are by low precipitation. Cover that is patchy at multiple scales allows connectivity for wind and water transport. Vegetation dynamics at interannual scales occurs in the context of community change (including woody encroachment) at decadal scales. Periods of drought alternate with relatively wet periods. Future predictions for the world's drylands are that many will become more arid, but near all will experience greater climate variability. This work explores how future variability will affect transport by wind and water, both of which are crucial elements of biotic-abiotic feedbacks that control community change in drylands. This work is based on long-term observations from the Jornada Long Term Ecological Research (LTER), but with lessons that are applicable elsewhere. We find strong relationships between vegetation community, precipitation and aeolian transport related to changes in connectivity. We further identify strong, scale-dependent relationships between precipitation and runoff. Thus, aeolian transport decreases with increasing annual precipitation and transport by water increases with annual precipitation, with the combined effect that increased variability in annual precipitation is likely to increase both water and wind transport. The consequence of this is that feedbacks associated with community change are likely to strengthen in the future.

Sustainability in nursing: a concept analysis.

PubMed

Anåker, Anna; Elf, Marie

2014-06-01

The aim of this study was to describe, explore and explain the concept of sustainability in nursing. Although researchers in nursing and medicine have emphasised the issue of sustainability and health, the concept of sustainability in nursing is undefined and poorly researched. A need exists for theoretical and empirical studies of sustainability in nursing. Concept analysis as developed by Walker and Avant. Data were derived from dictionaries, international healthcare organisations and literature searches in the CINAHL and MEDLINE databases. Inclusive years for the search ranged from 1990 to 2012. A total of fourteen articles were found that referred to sustainability in nursing. Sustainability in nursing involves six defining attributes: ecology, environment, future, globalism, holism and maintenance. Antecedents of sustainability require climate change, environmental impact and awareness, confidence in the future, responsibility and a willingness to change. Consequences of sustainability in nursing include education in the areas of ecology, environment and sustainable development as well as sustainability as a part of nursing academic programs and in the description of the academic subject of nursing. Sustainability should also be part of national and international healthcare organisations. The concept was clarified herein by giving it a definition. Sustainability in nursing was explored and found to contribute to sustainable development, with the ultimate goal of maintaining an environment that does not harm current and future generations' opportunities for good health. This concept analysis provides recommendations for the healthcare sector to incorporate sustainability and provides recommendations for future research. © 2014 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Caring Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Nordic College of Caring Science.

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

2017-05-23

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

Historical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology

Treesearch

Kevin C. Rose; Rose A. Graves; Winslow D. Hansen; Brian J. Harvey; Jiangxiao Qiu; Stephen A. Wood; Carly Ziter; Monica G. Turner; Wilfried Thuiller

2017-01-01

Macrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and...

Environmental Assessment for Sustainability and Resiliency for Ecological and Human Health

PubMed Central

Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael; Clarke, James; Jeitner, Christian; Pittfield, Taryn

2015-01-01

Considerable attention has been devoted to environmental assessment and monitoring, primarily by physical and biological scientists, and more recently by social scientists. However, population growth and global change have resulted in an imperative to assess the resiliency of the environment to adapt to large scale changes and to continue to produce goods and services for future generations (sustainability). Changing land use needs or expectations may require the remediation and restoration of degraded or contaminated land. This paper provides an overview of monitoring types, and discusses how indicators for the different monitoring types can be developed to address questions of ecological health, human health, and whether restoration and remediation are effective. We suggest that along with more traditional types of monitoring, agencies should consider recovery indicators or metrics, as well as resiliency metrics. We suggest that one goal of assessment should be to determine if management, remediation, restoration, and mitigation reduce recovery time, thus reducing community vulnerability and enhancing resiliency to environmental stressors and disasters. PMID:27468428

An ecohydrological sketch of climate change impacts on water and natural ecosystems for the Netherlands: bridging the gap between science and society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witte, J. P. M.; Runhaar, J.; van Ek, R.; van der Hoek, D. C. J.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Batelaan, O.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Wassen, M. J.; van der Zee, S. E. A. T. M.

2012-11-01

For policy making and spatial planning, information is needed about the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. To provide this information, commonly hydrological and ecological models are used. We give arguments for our assessment that modelling only is insufficient for determining the impacts of climate changes on natural ecosystems at regional scales. Instead, we proposed a combination of hydrological simulations, a literature review and process-knowledge on climate-hydrology-vegetation interactions, to compile a sketch map that indicates climate change effects on a number of ecosystems in the Netherlands. Soon after a first version of our sketch map was published by a Dutch professional journal, copies appeared in policy documents, and also in a commercial and popular atlas of the Netherlands. Moreover, the map led to a question in the Dutch parliament about the sustainability of bog reserves under the future climate. Apparently, there was an urgent need for the information provided by the map. The map shows that climate change will presumably have the largest influence on ecosystems in the Netherlands that depend on precipitation as the major water source, like heathlands, dry grasslands, rain-fed moorland pools and raised bogs. Also highly susceptible are fens in reserves surrounded by deeply drained polders, because such fens depend on the inlet of surface water, of which quality is likely to deteriorate upon climate change. While the map is indicative for directions of change, in view of the uncertainties of our study, no conclusions should be drawn that may have far-reaching consequences, such as giving up certain nature targets that might no longer be feasible in the future climate. Instead, we advise to anticipate the potential threats from climate change by taking a number of adaptation measures that enhance the robustness of nature reserves. To improve climate change projections on hydrology and ecosystems, future research should especially focus on feedbacks of vegetation on the water balance, on processes that directly influence plant performance and on the ecological effects of weather extremes.

Climate Change and Socio-Hydrological Dynamics: Adaptations and Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woyessa, Yali E.; Welderufael, Worku A.

2012-10-01

A functioning ecological system results in ecosystem goods and services which are of direct value to human beings. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes which sustain and fulfil human life, and maintain biodiversity and the production of ecosystem goods. However, human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threatens to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the provision of ecosystem services and how they change under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting landuse changes. Recently, the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. The agent-based perspective, with regard to land-use cover change, is centered on the general nature and rules of land-use decision making by individuals. A conceptual framework is developed to investigate the possibility of incorporating the human dimension of land use decision and climate change model into a hydrological model in order to assess the impact of future land use scenario and climate change on the ecological system in general and water resources in particular.

Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States—A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Wolfe, William J.

2016-08-11

In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few empirical investigations in these ecosystems have focused on possible climate-change effects, despite the well-documented ecological effects of climate change at a global level. Long-term management of these ecosystems could benefit from increased scientific effort to characterize and quantify the linkages between changing environmental conditions and the ecological processes that sustain biodiversity.

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Introduction Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change. Factors influencing the distribution of genetic variation Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant–insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes. Regional priorities and examples A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude. Conclusions, Solutions and Recommendations The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California’s plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species. PMID:28069633

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Schierenbeck, Kristina A

2017-01-01

Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change. Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant-insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes. A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude. The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California's plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

How to allocate water resources under climate change in the arid endorheic river basin, Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, A.; Feng, D.; Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.

2017-12-01

Water resource is of fundamental importance to the society and ecosystem in arid endorheic river basins, and water-use conflicts between upstream and downstream are usually significant. Heihe river basin (HRB) is the second largest endorheic river basin in china, which is featured with dry climate, intensively irrigated farmlands in oases and significant surface water-groundwater interaction. The irrigation districts in the middle HRB consume a large portion of the river flow, and the low HRB, mainly Gobi Desert, has an extremely vulnerable ecological environment. The water resources management has significantly altered the hydrological processes in HRB, and is now facing multiple challenges, including decline of groundwater table in the middle HRB, insufficient environmental flow for the lower HRB. Furthermore, future climate change adds substantial uncertainty to the water system. Thus, it is imperative to have a sustainable water resources management in HRB in order to tackle the existing challenges and future uncertainty. Climate projection form a dynamical downscaled climate change scenario shows precipitation will increase at a rate of approximately 3 millimeter per ten years and temperature will increase at a rate of approximately 0.2 centigrade degree per ten years in the following 50 years in the HRB. Based on an integrated ecohydrological model, we evaluated how the climate change and agricultural development would collaboratively impact the water resources and ecological health in the middle and lower HRB, and investigated how the water management should cope with the complex impact.

Recent social and biogeophysical changes in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Mekong, and Amazon deltas as inputs into evolutionary policy-making.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Araujo Barbosa, C. C.; Hossain, S.; Szabo, S.; Matthews, Z.; Heard, S.; Dearing, J.

2014-12-01

Policy-making in social-ecological systems increasingly looks to iterative, evolutionary approaches that can address the inherent complexity of interactions between human wellbeing, agricultural and aquacultural production, and ecosystem services. Here we show how an analysis of available time-series in delta regions over past decades can provide important insight into the social-ecological system dynamics that result from the complexity. The presentation summarises the recent changes for major elements of each social-ecological system, for example demography, economy, health, climate, food, and water. Time-series data from official statistics, monitoring programmes and sequential satellite imagery are analysed to define the range of trends, the presence of change points, slow and fast variables, and the significant drivers of change. For example, in the Bangladesh delta zone, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income levels since the 1980s mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. As a result, poverty alleviation is associated with environmental degradation. Trends in indicators of human wellbeing and ecosystem services point to widespread non-stationary dynamics governed by slowly changing variables with increased probability of systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. We conclude by examining how the findings could feed into new management tools, such as system dynamic models and assessments of safe operating spaces. Such tools have the potential to help create policies that deliver alternative and sustainable paths for land management while accommodating social and environmental change.

Landuse/Landcover and Climate Change Interaction in the Derived Savannah Region of Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akintuyi, A. O.; Fasona, M.; Soneye, A. S. O.

2016-12-01

The interaction of landuse/Landcover (LULC) and climate change, to a large extent, involves anthropogenic activities. This study was carried out in the derived savannah of Nigeria, a delicate ecological zone where the interaction of LULC and climate change could be well appreciated. The study evaluated coupled interaction between LULC and climate change and assessed the changes in the landuse/landcover patterns for the periods 1972, 1986, 2002 and 2010, evaluated the present (1941 - 2010) and future (2011 - 2050) variability in rainfall patterns and an attempt was made to predict the interaction between LULC and climate change during future climate. The study adopted remote sensing and GIS techniques, land change modeller and multivariate statistics The results suggest that the built up area, farmland, waterbody and woodland experienced a rapid increase of about 1,134.69%, 1,202.85%, 631.51% and 188.09%, respectively, while the forest cover, degraded surfaces and grassland lost about 19.32%, 72.76% and 0.05% respectively between 1972 and 2010. Furthermore, the study predicted 40.28% and 37.84% reduction in the forested area between 1986 and 2050 and 2010 and 2050 respectively. The study concludes that rainfall will be the major driver of LULC change within the study area under a future climate.

Human Adaptive Behavior in Common Pool Resource Systems

PubMed Central

Brandt, Gunnar; Merico, Agostino; Vollan, Björn; Schlüter, Achim

2012-01-01

Overexploitation of common-pool resources, resulting from uncooperative harvest behavior, is a major problem in many social-ecological systems. Feedbacks between user behavior and resource productivity induce non-linear dynamics in the harvest and the resource stock that complicate the understanding and the prediction of the co-evolutionary system. With an adaptive model constrained by data from a behavioral economic experiment, we show that users’ expectations of future pay-offs vary as a result of the previous harvest experience, the time-horizon, and the ability to communicate. In our model, harvest behavior is a trait that adjusts to continuously changing potential returns according to a trade-off between the users’ current harvest and the discounted future productivity of the resource. Given a maximum discount factor, which quantifies the users’ perception of future pay-offs, the temporal dynamics of harvest behavior and ecological resource can be predicted. Our results reveal a non-linear relation between the previous harvest and current discount rates, which is most sensitive around a reference harvest level. While higher than expected returns resulting from cooperative harvesting in the past increase the importance of future resource productivity and foster sustainability, harvests below the reference level lead to a downward spiral of increasing overexploitation and disappointing returns. PMID:23285180

Mapping carbon flux uncertainty and selecting optimal locations for future flux towers in the Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Howard, Daniel M.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, Li

2012-01-01

Flux tower networks (e. g., AmeriFlux, Agriflux) provide continuous observations of ecosystem exchanges of carbon (e. g., net ecosystem exchange), water vapor (e. g., evapotranspiration), and energy between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term time series of flux tower data are essential for studying and understanding terrestrial carbon cycles, ecosystem services, and climate changes. Currently, there are 13 flux towers located within the Great Plains (GP). The towers are sparsely distributed and do not adequately represent the varieties of vegetation cover types, climate conditions, and geophysical and biophysical conditions in the GP. This study assessed how well the available flux towers represent the environmental conditions or "ecological envelopes" across the GP and identified optimal locations for future flux towers in the GP. Regression-based remote sensing and weather-driven net ecosystem production (NEP) models derived from different extrapolation ranges (10 and 50%) were used to identify areas where ecological conditions were poorly represented by the flux tower sites and years previously used for mapping grassland fluxes. The optimal lands suitable for future flux towers within the GP were mapped. Results from this study provide information to optimize the usefulness of future flux towers in the GP and serve as a proxy for the uncertainty of the NEP map.

Museum specimen data reveal emergence of a plant disease may be linked to increases in the insect vector population.

PubMed

Zeilinger, Adam R; Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Turek, Daniel; Oboyski, Peter T; Almeida, Rodrigo P P; Roderick, George K

2017-09-01

The emergence rate of new plant diseases is increasing due to novel introductions, climate change, and changes in vector populations, posing risks to agricultural sustainability. Assessing and managing future disease risks depends on understanding the causes of contemporary and historical emergence events. Since the mid-1990s, potato growers in the western United States, Mexico, and Central America have experienced severe yield loss from Zebra Chip disease and have responded by increasing insecticide use to suppress populations of the insect vector, the potato psyllid, Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae). Despite the severe nature of Zebra Chip outbreaks, the causes of emergence remain unknown. We tested the hypotheses that (1) B. cockerelli occupancy has increased over the last century in California and (2) such increases are related to climate change, specifically warmer winters. We compiled a data set of 87,000 museum specimen occurrence records across the order Hemiptera collected between 1900 and 2014. We then analyzed changes in B. cockerelli distribution using a hierarchical occupancy model using changes in background species lists to correct for collecting effort. We found evidence that B. cockerelli occupancy has increased over the last century. However, these changes appear to be unrelated to climate changes, at least at the scale of our analysis. To the extent that species occupancy is related to abundance, our analysis provides the first quantitative support for the hypothesis that B. cockerelli population abundance has increased, but further work is needed to link B. cockerelli population dynamics to Zebra Chip epidemics. Finally, we demonstrate how this historical macro-ecological approach provides a general framework for comparative risk assessment of future pest and insect vector outbreaks. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.

PubMed

Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J

2018-01-01

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

The study of seasonal composition and dynamics of wetland ecosystems and wintering bird habitat at Poyang Lake, PR China using object-based image analysis and field observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dronova, Iryna

Wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems in the world which support critical ecological services and high biological diversity yet are vulnerable to climate change and human activities. In this thesis, I investigated the capabilities of satellite remote sensing with medium spatial resolution and object-based image analysis (OBIA) methods to elucidate seasonal composition and dynamics of wetland ecosystems and indicators of habitat for wintering waterbirds in a large conservation hotspot of Poyang Lake, PR China. I first examined changes in major wetland cover types during the low water period when Poyang Lake provides habitat to large numbers of migratory birds from the East Asian pathway. I used OBIA to map and analyze the transitions among water, vegetation, mudflat and sand classes from four 32-m Beijing-1 microsatellite images between late fall 2007 and early spring 2008. This analysis revealed that, while transitions among wetland classes were strongly associated with precipitation and flood-driven hydrological variation, the overall dynamics were a more complex interplay of vegetation phenology, disturbance and post-flood exposure. Remote sensing signals of environmental processes were more effectively captured by changes in fuzzy memberships to each class per location than by changes in spatial extents of the best-matching classes alone. The highest uncertainty in the image analysis corresponded to transitional wetland states at the end of the major flood recession in November and to heterogeneous mudflat areas at the land-water interface during the whole study period. Results suggest seasonally exposed mudflat features as important targets for future research due to heterogeneity and uncertainty of their composition, variable spatial distribution and sensitivity to hydrological dynamics. I further explored the potential of OBIA to overcome the limitations of the traditional pixel-based image classification methods in characterizing Poyang Lake plant functional types (PFTs) from the medium-resolution Landsat satellite data. I assessed the sensitivity in PFT classification accuracy to image object scale, machine-learning classification method and hierarchical level of vegetation classes determined from ecological functional traits of the locally dominant plant species. Both the overall and class-specific accuracy values were higher at coarser object scales compared to near-pixel levels, regardless of the machine-learning algorithm, with the overall accuracy exceeding 85-90%. However, more narrowly defined PFT classes differed in their highest-accuracy object scale values due to their unique patch structure, ecology of the dominant species and disturbance agents. To improve classification agreement between different levels of vegetation type hierarchy and reduce the uncertainty, future analyses should integrate spectral and geometric properties of vegetation patches with species' functional ecological traits. In periodically flooded wetlands such as Poyang Lake, rapid short-term surface dynamics and frequent inundation may constrain detection of directional long-term effects of climate change, succession or alien species invasions. To address this challenge, I proposed to classify Poyang Lake wetlands into "dynamic cover types" (DCTs) representing short-term ecological regimes shaped by phenology, disturbance and inundation, instead of static classes. I defined and mapped Poyang Lake DCTs for one flood cycle (late summer 2007-late spring 2008) from combined time series of medium-resolution multi-spectral and radar imagery. I further assessed sensitivity of DCTs to hydrological and climatic variation by comparing results with a hypothetical change scenario of a warmer wetter spring simulated by substituting spring 2008 input images with 2007 ones. This analysis identified the major steps in seasonal wetland change driven by flooding and vegetation phenology and spatial differences in change schedules across the heterogeneous study area. Comparison of DCTs from the actual flood season with the hypothetical scenario revealed both directional class shifts away from expanding permanent water and more complex location-specific redistributions of vegetation types and mudflats. These outcomes imply that changes in flooding may have non-uniform effects on different ecosystems and habitats and call for a thorough investigation of the future change scenarios for this landscape. The possibility to disentangle short-term ecological "regimes" from longer-term landscape changes via DCT framework suggests a promising research strategy for landscape ecosystem modeling, conservation and ecosystem management. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: Challenges and opportunities for future research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogger, M.; Agnoletti, M.; Alaoui, A.; Bathurst, J. C.; Bodner, G.; Borga, M.; Chaplot, V.; Gallart, F.; Glatzel, G.; Hall, J.; Holden, J.; Holko, L.; Horn, R.; Kiss, A.; Kohnová, S.; Leitinger, G.; Lennartz, B.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.; Peth, S.; Plavcová, L.; Quinton, J. N.; Robinson, M.; Salinas, J. L.; Santoro, A.; Szolgay, J.; Tron, S.; van den Akker, J. J. H.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2017-07-01

Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long-term experiments on physical-chemical-biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.

Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: Challenges and opportunities for future research

PubMed Central

Agnoletti, M.; Alaoui, A.; Bathurst, J. C.; Bodner, G.; Borga, M.; Chaplot, V.; Gallart, F.; Glatzel, G.; Hall, J.; Holden, J.; Holko, L.; Horn, R.; Kiss, A.; Kohnová, S.; Leitinger, G.; Lennartz, B.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.; Peth, S.; Plavcová, L.; Quinton, J. N.; Robinson, M.; Salinas, J. L.; Santoro, A.; Szolgay, J.; Tron, S.; van den Akker, J. J. H.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2017-01-01

Abstract Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long‐term experiments on physical‐chemical‐biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology. PMID:28919651

A critical reflection of a decade of urbanization and global environmental change research and science coordination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffith, C.

2015-12-01

The Urbanization and Global Environmental Change (UGEC) Project was established in 2005 when attention to the bidirectional interactions of urbanization and GEC issues and the associated system responses was very new and the community of UGEC researchers very small. Much of the urban scholarship used specific disciplinary lenses through which to understand the city, e.g., in terms of demographics and population growth, ecology of cities or economics of cities. Over the last decade new analytical lenses have revealed much more about how cities function, the underlying socio-economic and ecological processes that drive urbanization, their dynamic and teleconnected nature, and other bio-physical interactions within the Earth system. Furthermore, it is within the cities that the impacts of current and projected urbanization and environmental changes are felt, but also where action is taken and where great potential for intervention of urbanization trajectories exists towards creating more livable urban futures. A former IHDP core project, now Future Earth project, UGEC is in its sunset/synthesis phase and exploring future directions. This presentation will: Give an brief overview of UGEC evolution over the course of the last decade not only in terms of the science, but also the institution Present preliminary results from a critical analysis of UGEC's ten year role as a GEC research coordination project including its impact, strengths and weaknesses Make the case for greater interdisciplinarity (particularly across the physical sciences and humanities) and involvement of other stakeholders (private sector and decisionmakers) in future urbanization and environmental research, as 'urban' is a crosscutting issue that has both global to local scale implications Present work that UGEC is leading, which is to advance an urban agenda within the new Future Earth initiative as part of the recently awarded Cluster Activity 'Livable Urban Futures', as an example of research coordination in a new era of GEC governance, the associated challenges and also successes Provide insight into the practical aspects of research coordination from an IPO management perspective including the day to day management, what's required, challenging and what can be improved upon for the betterment of coordinated and networked science.

Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik

2017-10-01

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales. ?? The Author(s) 2009.

Confronting the coral reef crisis.

PubMed

Bellwood, D R; Hughes, T P; Folke, C; Nyström, M

2004-06-24

The worldwide decline of coral reefs calls for an urgent reassessment of current management practices. Confronting large-scale crises requires a major scaling-up of management efforts based on an improved understanding of the ecological processes that underlie reef resilience. Managing for improved resilience, incorporating the role of human activity in shaping ecosystems, provides a basis for coping with uncertainty, future changes and ecological surprises. Here we review the ecological roles of critical functional groups (for both corals and reef fishes) that are fundamental to understanding resilience and avoiding phase shifts from coral dominance to less desirable, degraded ecosystems. We identify striking biogeographic differences in the species richness and composition of functional groups, which highlight the vulnerability of Caribbean reef ecosystems. These findings have profound implications for restoration of degraded reefs, management of fisheries, and the focus on marine protected areas and biodiversity hotspots as priorities for conservation.

Interactions of microplastic debris throughout the marine ecosystem.

PubMed

Galloway, Tamara S; Cole, Matthew; Lewis, Ceri

2017-04-20

Marine microscopic plastic (microplastic) debris is a modern societal issue, illustrating the challenge of balancing the convenience of plastic in daily life with the prospect of causing ecological harm by careless disposal. Here we develop the concept of microplastic as a complex, dynamic mixture of polymers and additives, to which organic material and contaminants can successively bind to form an 'ecocorona', increasing the density and surface charge of particles and changing their bioavailability and toxicity. Chronic exposure to microplastic is rarely lethal, but can adversely affect individual animals, reducing feeding and depleting energy stores, with knock-on effects for fecundity and growth. We explore the extent to which ecological processes could be impacted, including altered behaviours, bioturbation and impacts on carbon flux to the deep ocean. We discuss how microplastic compares with other anthropogenic pollutants in terms of ecological risk, and consider the role of science and society in tackling this global issue in the future.

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Blanchard, Julia L; Jennings, Simon; Holmes, Robert; Harle, James; Merino, Gorka; Allen, J Icarus; Holt, Jason; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Barange, Manuel

2012-11-05

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.

Behavioural responses to human-induced change: Why fishing should not be ignored.

PubMed

Diaz Pauli, Beatriz; Sih, Andrew

2017-03-01

Change in behaviour is usually the first response to human-induced environmental change and key for determining whether a species adapts to environmental change or becomes maladapted. Thus, understanding the behavioural response to human-induced changes is crucial in the interplay between ecology, evolution, conservation and management. Yet the behavioural response to fishing activities has been largely ignored. We review studies contrasting how fish behaviour affects catch by passive (e.g., long lines, angling) versus active gears (e.g., trawls, seines). We show that fishing not only targets certain behaviours, but it leads to a multitrait response including behavioural, physiological and life-history traits with population, community and ecosystem consequences. Fisheries-driven change (plastic or evolutionary) of fish behaviour and its correlated traits could impact fish populations well beyond their survival per se , affecting predation risk, foraging behaviour, dispersal, parental care, etc., and hence numerous ecological issues including population dynamics and trophic cascades . In particular, we discuss implications of behavioural responses to fishing for fisheries management and population resilience. More research on these topics, however, is needed to draw general conclusions, and we suggest fruitful directions for future studies.

Why marine phytoplankton calcify.

PubMed

Monteiro, Fanny M; Bach, Lennart T; Brownlee, Colin; Bown, Paul; Rickaby, Rosalind E M; Poulton, Alex J; Tyrrell, Toby; Beaufort, Luc; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Gibbs, Samantha; Gutowska, Magdalena A; Lee, Renee; Riebesell, Ulf; Young, Jeremy; Ridgwell, Andy

2016-07-01

Calcifying marine phytoplankton-coccolithophores- are some of the most successful yet enigmatic organisms in the ocean and are at risk from global change. To better understand how they will be affected, we need to know "why" coccolithophores calcify. We review coccolithophorid evolutionary history and cell biology as well as insights from recent experiments to provide a critical assessment of the costs and benefits of calcification. We conclude that calcification has high energy demands and that coccolithophores might have calcified initially to reduce grazing pressure but that additional benefits such as protection from photodamage and viral/bacterial attack further explain their high diversity and broad spectrum ecology. The cost-benefit aspect of these traits is illustrated by novel ecosystem modeling, although conclusive observations remain limited. In the future ocean, the trade-off between changing ecological and physiological costs of calcification and their benefits will ultimately decide how this important group is affected by ocean acidification and global warming.

Why marine phytoplankton calcify

PubMed Central

Monteiro, Fanny M.; Bach, Lennart T.; Brownlee, Colin; Bown, Paul; Rickaby, Rosalind E. M.; Poulton, Alex J.; Tyrrell, Toby; Beaufort, Luc; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Gibbs, Samantha; Gutowska, Magdalena A.; Lee, Renee; Riebesell, Ulf; Young, Jeremy; Ridgwell, Andy

2016-01-01

Calcifying marine phytoplankton—coccolithophores— are some of the most successful yet enigmatic organisms in the ocean and are at risk from global change. To better understand how they will be affected, we need to know “why” coccolithophores calcify. We review coccolithophorid evolutionary history and cell biology as well as insights from recent experiments to provide a critical assessment of the costs and benefits of calcification. We conclude that calcification has high energy demands and that coccolithophores might have calcified initially to reduce grazing pressure but that additional benefits such as protection from photodamage and viral/bacterial attack further explain their high diversity and broad spectrum ecology. The cost-benefit aspect of these traits is illustrated by novel ecosystem modeling, although conclusive observations remain limited. In the future ocean, the trade-off between changing ecological and physiological costs of calcification and their benefits will ultimately decide how this important group is affected by ocean acidification and global warming. PMID:27453937

Latitudinal species diversity gradient of marine zooplankton for the last three million years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yasuhara, Moriaki; Hunt, Gene; Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2012-01-01

High tropical and low polar biodiversity is one of the most fundamental patterns characterising marine ecosystems, and the influence of temperature on such marine latitudinal diversity gradients is increasingly well documented. However, the temporal stability of quantitative relationships among diversity, latitude and temperature is largely unknown. Herein we document marine zooplankton species diversity patterns at four time slices [modern, Last Glacial Maximum (18 000 years ago), last interglacial (120 000 years ago), and Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 million years ago)] and show that, although the diversity-latitude relationship has been dynamic, diversity-temperature relationships are remarkably constant over the past three million years. These results suggest that species diversity is rapidly reorganised as species' ranges respond to temperature change on ecological time scales, and that the ecological impact of future human-induced temperature change may be partly predictable from fossil and paleoclimatological records.

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

PubMed

Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

2017-06-01

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Labiosa, Bill; Forney, William M.; Hearn,, Paul P.; Hogan, Dianna M.; Strong, David R.; Swain, Eric D.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Mitsova-Boneva, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Pearlstine, Leonard; Gladwin, Hugh

2013-01-01

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Land management in the Anthropocene: Is history still relevant?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safford, Hugh D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hayward, Gregory D.; Wiens, John A.; Regan, Claudia M.

2008-01-01

Ecological restoration, conservation, and land management are often based on comparisons with reference sites or time periods, which are assumed to represent “natural” or “properly functioning” conditions. Such reference conditions can provide a vision of the conservation or management goal and a means to measure progress toward that vision. Although historical ecology has been used successfully to guide resource management in many parts of the world, the continuing relevance of history is now being questioned. Some scientists doubt that lessons from the past can inform management in what may be a dramatically different future, given profound climate change, accelerated land use, and an onslaught of plant and animal invasions.

Perspectives on orchid conservation in botanic gardens.

PubMed

Swarts, Nigel D; Dixon, Kingsley W

2009-11-01

Orchids, one of the largest families of flowering plants, face an uncertain future through overexploitation, habitat loss and impacts of climate change. With their intricate abiotic and biotic dependencies, orchids typify the plight of global plant resources and, thus, provide ideal model species for ecological tracking and focussing conservation programs. Botanic gardens worldwide have traditionally been major centres of excellence in orchid horticulture, research and conservation as orchids generate wide public and educational appeal. Here, we highlight the role of botanic gardens in areas key to orchid conservation. With pristine habitats under threat globally, the challenge for orchid conservation programs will ultimately depend upon developing ecological restoration technologies, whereby orchids are reinstated into sustainably restored habitats.

Geographic variations in anthropogenic drivers that influence the vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Forbes, Bruce C; Fresco, Nancy; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Danell, Kjell; Chapin, F Stuart

2004-08-01

Across the circumpolar North large disparities in the distribution of renewable and nonrenewable resources, human population density, capital investments, and basic residential and transportation infrastructure combine to create recognizable hotspots of recent and foreseeable change. Northern Fennoscandia exemplifies a relatively benign situation due to its current economic and political stability. Northern Russia is experiencing rapid, mostly negative changes reflecting the general state of crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union. North America enjoys a relatively stable regulatory structure to mitigate environmental degradation associated with industry, but is on the verge of approving massive new development schemes that would significantly expand the spatial extent of potentially affected social-ecological systems. Institutional or regulatory context influences the extent to which ecosystem services are buffered against environmental change. With or without a warming climate, certain geographic areas appear especially vulnerable to damages that may threaten their ability to supply goods and services in the near future. Climate change may exacerbate this situation in some places but may offer opportunities to enhance resilience in the long term.

Oceanographic mechanisms and penguin population increases during the Little Ice Age in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Lianjiao; Sun, Liguang; Emslie, Steven D.; Xie, Zhouqing; Huang, Tao; Gao, Yuesong; Yang, Wenqing; Chu, Zhuding; Wang, Yuhong

2018-01-01

The Adélie penguin is a well-known indicator for climate and environmental changes. Exploring how large-scale climate variability affects penguin ecology in the past is essential for understanding the responses of Southern Ocean ecosystems to future global change. Using ornithogenic sediments at Cape Bird, Ross Island, Antarctica, we inferred relative population changes of Adélie penguins in the southern Ross Sea over the past 500 yr, and observed an increase in penguin populations during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1500-1850 AD). We used cadmium content in ancient penguin guano as a proxy of ocean upwelling and identified a close linkage between penguin dynamics and atmospheric circulation and oceanic conditions. During the cold period of ∼1600-1825 AD, a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) led to stronger winds, intensified ocean upwelling, enlarged Ross Sea and McMurdo Sound polynyas, and thus higher food abundance and penguin populations. We propose a mechanism linking Antarctic marine ecology and atmospheric/oceanic dynamics which can help explain and predict responses of Antarctic high latitudes ecosystems to climate change.

Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Acevedo, William; Griffith, Glenn E.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Auch, Roger F.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Prisley, Stephen; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management. This paper describes methods to downscale projections of land-use and land-cover change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios to ecological regions of the conterminous United States, using an integrated assessment model, land-use histories, and expert knowledge. Downscaled projections span a wide range of future potential conditions across sixteen land use/land cover sectors and 84 ecological regions, and are logically consistent with both historical measurements and SRES characteristics. Results appear to provide a credible solution for connecting regionalized projections of land use and land cover with existing downscaled climate scenarios, under a common set of scenario-based socioeconomic assumptions.

Gender specific reproductive strategies of an arctic key species (Boreogadus saida) and implications of climate change.

PubMed

Nahrgang, Jasmine; Varpe, Oystein; Korshunova, Ekaterina; Murzina, Svetlana; Hallanger, Ingeborg G; Vieweg, Ireen; Berge, Jørgen

2014-01-01

The Arctic climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. What consequences this may have on the Arctic marine ecosystem depends to a large degree on how its species will respond both directly to elevated temperatures and more indirectly through ecological interactions. But despite an alarming recent warming of the Arctic with accompanying sea ice loss, reports evaluating ecological impacts of climate change in the Arctic remain sparse. Here, based upon a large-scale field study, we present basic new knowledge regarding the life history traits for one of the most important species in the entire Arctic, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). Furthermore, by comparing regions of contrasting climatic influence (domains), we present evidence as to how its growth and reproductive success is impaired in the warmer of the two domains. As the future Arctic is predicted to resemble today's Atlantic domains, we forecast changes in growth and life history characteristics of polar cod that will lead to alteration of its role as an Arctic keystone species. This will in turn affect community dynamics and energy transfer in the entire Arctic food chain.

Promoting and maintaining diversity in contemporary hardwood forests: Confronting contemporary drivers of change and the loss of ecological memory

Treesearch

Christopher R. Webster; Yvette L. Dickinson; Julia I. Burton; Lee E. Frelich; Michael A. Jenkins; Christel C. Kern; Patricia Raymond; Michael R. Saunders; Michael B. Walters; John L. Willis

2018-01-01

Declines in the diversity of herbaceous and woody plant species in the understory of eastern North American hardwood forests are increasingly common. Forest managers are tasked with maintaining and/or promoting species diversity and resilience; however, the success of these efforts depends on a robust understanding of past and future system dynamics and identification...

Archive and laboratory embedded in the landscape: Future of the Santa Rita Experimental Range

Treesearch

Thomas E. Sheridan

2003-01-01

The Santa Rita Experimental Range (SRER) is both an archive of past ecological research and a laboratory for continuing research embedded in the southern Arizona landscape. The scientific questions being asked there have changed over the last 100 years, but SRER with its monitoring stations and its legacy of repeat photography still offers a unique opportunity to study...

Social Science Research Related to Wildfire Management: An Overview of Recent Findings and Future Research Needs

Treesearch

Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric Toman; Melanie Stidham; Bruce Shindler

2012-01-01

As with other aspects of natural-resource management, the approach to managing wildland fires has evolved over time as scientific understanding has advanced and the broader context surrounding management decisions has changed. Prior to 2000 the primary focus of most fire research was on the physical and ecological aspects of fire; social science research was limited to...

Increases in Growing Season Length and Changes in Precipitation at Six Different Arctic and Subarctic Ecosystems from 1906-Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culler, L. E.; Finger, R.; Plane, E.; Ayres, M.; Virginia, R. A.

2015-12-01

Ecological dynamics across the Arctic are responding to rapid changes in climate. As a whole, the Arctic has warmed at approximately twice the rate of the rest of the world, but changes in temperature and precipitation experienced at regional and local scales are most important for coupled human-natural systems. In addition, biologically-relevant climate indices are necessary for quantifying ecological responses of terrestrial and aquatic systems to varying climate. We compared climatic changes at six different Arctic and sub-Arctic locations, including two in Greenland (Kangerlussuaq, Sisimiut), one in Sweden (Abisko), and three in Alaska (Barrow, Nome, Fairbanks). We amassed weather data (daily temperature and precipitation), dating as far back as 1906, from public-access databases and used these data to calculate indices such as length of growing season, growing season degree days (GDD), and growing season precipitation. Annual GDD increased at all locations (average of 13% increase in GDD since 1980), but especially in western Greenland (16 and 37% in Kangerlussuaq and Sisimiut, respectively). Changes in growing season precipitation were more variable, with only Barrow, AK and Abisko, Sweden experiencing increased precipitation. All other sites experienced stable or slightly declining precipitation. Increasing temperatures and relatively stable precipitation translates to increased evapotranspiration potential, which influences soil moisture, lake depth, vegetation, carbon emissions, and fire susceptibility. Understanding local and regional trends in temperature and precipitation can help explain observed phenological changes and other processes at population, community, and ecosystem levels. In addition, identification of locations most susceptible to future change will allow scientists to closely monitor their ecological dynamics, anticipate changes in coupled human-natural systems, and consider adaptation plans for the most rapidly changing systems.

The Arctic in the Twenty-First Century: Changing Biogeochemical Linkages across a Paraglacial Landscape of Greenland.

PubMed

Anderson, N John; Saros, Jasmine E; Bullard, Joanna E; Cahoon, Sean M P; McGowan, Suzanne; Bagshaw, Elizabeth A; Barry, Christopher D; Bindler, Richard; Burpee, Benjamin T; Carrivick, Jonathan L; Fowler, Rachel A; Fox, Anthony D; Fritz, Sherilyn C; Giles, Madeleine E; Hamerlik, Ladislav; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Law, Antonia C; Mernild, Sebastian H; Northington, Robert M; Osburn, Christopher L; Pla-Rabès, Sergi; Post, Eric; Telling, Jon; Stroud, David A; Whiteford, Erika J; Yallop, Marian L; Yde, Jacob C

2017-02-01

The Kangerlussuaq area of southwest Greenland encompasses diverse ecological, geomorphic, and climate gradients that function over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Ecosystems range from the microbial communities on the ice sheet and moisture-stressed terrestrial vegetation (and their associated herbivores) to freshwater and oligosaline lakes. These ecosystems are linked by a dynamic glacio-fluvial-aeolian geomorphic system that transports water, geological material, organic carbon and nutrients from the glacier surface to adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems. This paraglacial system is now subject to substantial change because of rapid regional warming since 2000. Here, we describe changes in the eco- and geomorphic systems at a range of timescales and explore rapid future change in the links that integrate these systems. We highlight the importance of cross-system subsidies at the landscape scale and, importantly, how these might change in the near future as the Arctic is expected to continue to warm.

The Arctic in the Twenty-First Century: Changing Biogeochemical Linkages across a Paraglacial Landscape of Greenland

PubMed Central

Anderson, N. John; Saros, Jasmine E.; Bullard, Joanna E.; Cahoon, Sean M. P.; McGowan, Suzanne; Bagshaw, Elizabeth A.; Barry, Christopher D.; Bindler, Richard; Burpee, Benjamin T.; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Fowler, Rachel A.; Fox, Anthony D.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Giles, Madeleine E.; Hamerlik, Ladislav; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Law, Antonia C.; Mernild, Sebastian H.; Northington, Robert M.; Osburn, Christopher L.; Pla-Rabès, Sergi; Post, Eric; Telling, Jon; Stroud, David A.; Whiteford, Erika J.; Yallop, Marian L.; Yde, Jacob C.

2017-01-01

Abstract The Kangerlussuaq area of southwest Greenland encompasses diverse ecological, geomorphic, and climate gradients that function over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Ecosystems range from the microbial communities on the ice sheet and moisture-stressed terrestrial vegetation (and their associated herbivores) to freshwater and oligosaline lakes. These ecosystems are linked by a dynamic glacio-fluvial-aeolian geomorphic system that transports water, geological material, organic carbon and nutrients from the glacier surface to adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems. This paraglacial system is now subject to substantial change because of rapid regional warming since 2000. Here, we describe changes in the eco- and geomorphic systems at a range of timescales and explore rapid future change in the links that integrate these systems. We highlight the importance of cross-system subsidies at the landscape scale and, importantly, how these might change in the near future as the Arctic is expected to continue to warm. PMID:28596614

Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory.

PubMed

Zanin, Marina; Tessarolo, Geiziane; Machado, Nathália; Albernaz, Ana Luisa M

2017-01-01

In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

A review of infectious agents in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and their long-term ecological relevance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Anna C.; Patyk, Kelly A.; Nol, Pauline; Atwood, Todd C.; Hueffer, Karsten; Duncan, Colleen G.

2015-01-01

Disease was a listing criterion for the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 2008; it is therefore important to evaluate the current state of knowledge and identify any information gaps pertaining to diseases in polar bears. We conducted a systematic literature review focused on infectious agents and associated health impacts identified in polar bears. Overall, the majority of reports in free-ranging bears concerned serosurveys or fecal examinations with little to no information on associated health effects. In contrast, most reports documenting illness or pathology referenced captive animals and diseases caused by etiologic agents not representative of exposure opportunities in wild bears. As such, most of the available infectious disease literature has limited utility as a basis for development of future health assessment and management plans. Given that ecological change is a considerable risk facing polar bear populations, future work should focus on cumulative effects of multiple stressors that could impact polar bear population dynamics.

A Review of Infectious Agents in Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus) and Their Long-Term Ecological Relevance.

PubMed

Fagre, Anna C; Patyk, Kelly A; Nol, Pauline; Atwood, Todd; Hueffer, Karsten; Duncan, Colleen

2015-09-01

Disease was a listing criterion for the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 2008; it is therefore important to evaluate the current state of knowledge and identify any information gaps pertaining to diseases in polar bears. We conducted a systematic literature review focused on infectious agents and associated health impacts identified in polar bears. Overall, the majority of reports in free-ranging bears concerned serosurveys or fecal examinations with little to no information on associated health effects. In contrast, most reports documenting illness or pathology referenced captive animals and diseases caused by etiologic agents not representative of exposure opportunities in wild bears. As such, most of the available infectious disease literature has limited utility as a basis for development of future health assessment and management plans. Given that ecological change is a considerable risk facing polar bear populations, future work should focus on cumulative effects of multiple stressors that could impact polar bear population dynamics.

Understanding controls on biotic assemblages and ecological status in Zambian rivers for the development of sustainable monitoring protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Michael; Gibbins, Chris; Lowe, Steven; Dallas, Helen; Taylor, Jonathan; Lang, Pauline; Saili, Kothelani; Sichingabula, Henry; Murphy, Kevin

2014-05-01

The water resources of Zambia are likely to experience increasing multiple pressures in the future as a result of very high predicted population growth, industrial development, land use change, and potentially, altered regional rainfall patterns. It is well known that rivers in tropical regions typically have a rich biodiversity, controlled in part by inter-annual variability in climate and discharge, and in part by local catchment conditions. However, till recently little country-wide work had had been carried out on the biota of Zambian rivers, and little was therefore known about the ecological status, or degree of catchment alteration of many of the rivers. To underpin sustainable water management, protocols have been developed to assess the ecological status of Zambian rivers. This paper describes the development of the protocols and their application to provide the first extensive assessment of the ecological status of rivers in the country. The protocols were designed to be simple, and hence rapid, easy and relatively inexpensive to apply. Status scores were derived for individual sites using sensitivity weightings from 3 major groups (macrophytes, diatoms and macroinvertebrates). The general approach was based on schemes used successfully elsewhere, with species and family sensitivity weightings modified so as be appropriate to Zambia. Modifications were based on a survey of 140 Zambian rivers, incorporating data on species distributions, physical habitat conditions and water quality. Analysis of historical data suggests that established Freshwater Ecoregions reflect hydro-climatic variability across Zambia. Survey data indicate that most of the spatial variation in biological assemblages across the country reflects these same hydro-climatic gradients, in addition to hydrochemical differences linked to geology. Site status scores suggest that rivers are generally in good health, although exceptions occur in some large urban areas and a small number of catchments with major industrial activity. Data form an important baseline against which to assess future changes related to population growth and climate change, and will therefore help inform policy within Zambia for sustainable river monitoring and management.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Reducing the ecological consequences of night-time light pollution: options and developments

PubMed Central

Gaston, Kevin J; Davies, Thomas W; Bennie, Jonathan; Hopkins, John

2012-01-01

1. Much concern has been expressed about the ecological consequences of night-time light pollution. This concern is most often focused on the encroachment of artificial light into previously unlit areas of the night-time environment, but changes in the spectral composition, duration and spatial pattern of light are also recognized as having ecological effects. 2. Here, we examine the potential consequences for organisms of five management options to reduce night-time light pollution. These are to (i) prevent areas from being artificially lit; (ii) limit the duration of lighting; (iii) reduce the ‘trespass’ of lighting into areas that are not intended to be lit (including the night sky); (iv) change the intensity of lighting; and (v) change the spectral composition of lighting. 3. Maintaining and increasing natural unlit areas is likely to be the most effective option for reducing the ecological effects of lighting. However, this will often conflict with other social and economic objectives. Decreasing the duration of lighting will reduce energy costs and carbon emissions, but is unlikely to alleviate many impacts on nocturnal and crepuscular animals, as peak times of demand for lighting frequently coincide with those in the activities of these species. Reducing the trespass of lighting will maintain heterogeneity even in otherwise well-lit areas, providing dark refuges that mobile animals can exploit. Decreasing the intensity of lighting will reduce energy consumption and limit both skyglow and the area impacted by high-intensity direct light. Shifts towards ‘whiter’ light are likely to increase the potential range of environmental impacts as light is emitted across a broader range of wavelengths. 4. Synthesis and applications. The artificial lightscape will change considerably over coming decades with the drive for more cost-effective low-carbon street lighting solutions and growth in the artificially lit area. Developing lighting strategies that minimize adverse ecological impacts while balancing the often conflicting requirements of light for human utility, comfort and safety, aesthetic concerns, energy consumption and carbon emission reduction constitute significant future challenges. However, as both lighting technology and understanding of its ecological effects develop, there is potential to identify adaptive solutions that resolve these conflicts. PMID:23335816

Reducing the ecological consequences of night-time light pollution: options and developments.

PubMed

Gaston, Kevin J; Davies, Thomas W; Bennie, Jonathan; Hopkins, John

2012-12-01

1. Much concern has been expressed about the ecological consequences of night-time light pollution. This concern is most often focused on the encroachment of artificial light into previously unlit areas of the night-time environment, but changes in the spectral composition, duration and spatial pattern of light are also recognized as having ecological effects.2. Here, we examine the potential consequences for organisms of five management options to reduce night-time light pollution. These are to (i) prevent areas from being artificially lit; (ii) limit the duration of lighting; (iii) reduce the 'trespass' of lighting into areas that are not intended to be lit (including the night sky); (iv) change the intensity of lighting; and (v) change the spectral composition of lighting.3. Maintaining and increasing natural unlit areas is likely to be the most effective option for reducing the ecological effects of lighting. However, this will often conflict with other social and economic objectives. Decreasing the duration of lighting will reduce energy costs and carbon emissions, but is unlikely to alleviate many impacts on nocturnal and crepuscular animals, as peak times of demand for lighting frequently coincide with those in the activities of these species. Reducing the trespass of lighting will maintain heterogeneity even in otherwise well-lit areas, providing dark refuges that mobile animals can exploit. Decreasing the intensity of lighting will reduce energy consumption and limit both skyglow and the area impacted by high-intensity direct light. Shifts towards 'whiter' light are likely to increase the potential range of environmental impacts as light is emitted across a broader range of wavelengths.4.Synthesis and applications. The artificial lightscape will change considerably over coming decades with the drive for more cost-effective low-carbon street lighting solutions and growth in the artificially lit area. Developing lighting strategies that minimize adverse ecological impacts while balancing the often conflicting requirements of light for human utility, comfort and safety, aesthetic concerns, energy consumption and carbon emission reduction constitute significant future challenges. However, as both lighting technology and understanding of its ecological effects develop, there is potential to identify adaptive solutions that resolve these conflicts.

Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2012-01-01

The Global Change Ecology and Wetlands book series will highlight the latest research from the world leaders in the field of climate change in wetlands. Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands highlights information of importance to wetland ecologists.  The chapters include syntheses of international studies on the effects of drought on function and regeneration in wetlands, sea level rise and the distribution of mangrove swamps, former distributions of swamp species and future lessons from paleoecology, and shifts in atmospheric emissions across geographical regions in wetlands.  Overall, the book will contribute to a better understanding of the potential effects of climate change on world wetland distribution and function.

Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

2010-12-14

This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, andmore » we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.« less

Recent changes in ecologically-relevant streamflows in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Knouft, J.; Robeson, S. M.

2017-12-01

The streamflow regime is a primary regulator of the composition and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Growth, behavior, and/or reproduction of most freshwater organisms are influenced in some way by the amount of water, including high and low flows, and seasonal fluctuations in water availability in a particular habitat. This work examines trends in ecologically-relevant measures of streamflows from 1980-2015 for over 3,000 streamflow gauges located throughout Canada and United States. Specifically, we examine trends in water year mean flow and variability, as well as trends in high (95th and 99th percentile), low (1st and 5th percentile), and 7- and 3-day maximum and minimum streamflows. The results indicate a clear regional delineation of significant increases of ecologically-relevant streamflows in the northern Central Plains/south-central Canada, upper Midwest (except Michigan and Wisconsin) and northeastern United States/southeastern Canada, while significant decreases are found throughout the southeastern and southwestern United States. The regional agreement between streamflow trends in regulated and unregulated watersheds indicate a widespread climatic influence that is not masked by human alteration of streamflows. We explore the degree to which climate factors explain both interannual variability and observed trends in streamflow to better elucidate the role of top-down climate drivers versus bottom-up land surface drivers on recent trends in ecologically-relevant streamflow. We also explore how these changes in streamflow are affecting water quality such as water temperature and sediment concentration. This type of analysis will aid in highlighting streamflow regions in the United States that are currently sensitive to changes in climate, but may also aid in understanding which regions may be sensitive to future climatic changes.

Combining soundscape analysis with in situ observations and oceanographic data for future ecosystem evaluation techniques.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, S. E.; Freeman, L. A.

2016-02-01

Coral reef ecosystems face many anthropogenic threats. There are urgent requirements for improved monitoring and management. Conventional assessment methods using SCUBA are costly and prone to bias and under-sampling. Here, three approaches to understanding coral reef ecology are combined to aid the goal of enhanced passive monitoring in the future: statistical analysis of oceanographic habitats, remote cameras for nocturnal surveys of benthic fauna, and soundscape analysis in the context of oceanographic setting and ecological metrics collected in-situ. Hawaiian reefs from Kure Atoll to the island of Hawaii, an area spanning two oceanographic habitats, are assessed. Multivariate analysis of acoustic, remote camera, and in-situ observational data showed significant differences in more than 20 percent of ecological and acoustic variables when grouped by oceanic regime, suggesting that large-scale oceanography substantially influences local ecological states and associated soundscapes. Acoustic variables further delineated sites by island, suggesting local conditions influence the soundscape to a greater degree. While the number of invertebrates (with an emphasis on crustaceans and echinoderms) imaged using remote cameras correlated with a number of acoustic metrics, an increasingly higher correlation between invertebrate density and spectral level was observed as acoustic bands increased in frequency from 2 to 20 kHz. In turn, correlation was also observed between the number of predatory fish and sound levels above 2 kHz, suggesting a connection between the number of invertebrates, sound levels at higher frequencies, and the presence of their predators. Comparisons between sound recordings and diversity indices calculated from observational and remote camera data indicate that greater diversity in fishes and benthic invertebrates is associated with a larger change in sound levels between day and night. Interdisciplinary analyses provide a novel view to underwater ecology, and can reveal new quantitative metrics that may be more efficiently sampled. These techniques may be used to detect subtle yet important shifts in ecosystem function, critical for effective marine resource management in the face of environmental changes that occur over multi-year timescales.

Integrated risk and recovery monitoring of ecosystem restorations on contaminated sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooper, Michael J.; Glomb, Stephen J.; Harper, David; Hoelzle, Timothy B.; McIntosh, Lisa M.; Mulligan, David R.

2016-01-01

Ecological restorations of contaminated sites balance the human and ecological risks of residual contamination with the benefits of ecological recovery and the return of lost ecological function and ecosystem services. Risk and recovery are interrelated dynamic conditions, changing as remediation and restoration activities progress through implementation into long-term management and ecosystem maturation. Monitoring restoration progress provides data critical to minimizing residual contaminant risk and uncertainty, while measuring ecological advancement toward recovery goals. Effective monitoring plans are designed concurrently with restoration plan development and implementation and are focused on assessing the effectiveness of activities performed in support of restoration goals for the site. Physical, chemical, and biotic measures characterize progress toward desired structural and functional ecosystem components of the goals. Structural metrics, linked to ecosystem functions and services, inform restoration practitioners of work plan modifications or more substantial adaptive management actions necessary to maintain desired recovery. Monitoring frequency, duration, and scale depend on specific attributes and goals of the restoration project. Often tied to restoration milestones, critical assessment of monitoring metrics ensures attainment of risk minimization and ecosystem recovery. Finally, interpretation and communication of monitoring findings inform and engage regulators, other stakeholders, the scientific community, and the public. Because restoration activities will likely cease before full ecosystem recovery, monitoring endpoints should demonstrate risk reduction and a successional trajectory toward the condition established in the restoration goals. A detailed assessment of the completed project's achievements, as well as unrealized objectives, attained through project monitoring, will determine if contaminant risk has been minimized, if injured resources have recovered, and if ecosystem services have been returned. Such retrospective analysis will allow better planning for future restoration goals and strengthen the evidence base for quantifying injuries and damages at other sites in the future.

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ferschweiler, Ken; Hobbins, Michael

2014-01-01

The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is influenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006). However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

PubMed Central

Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Villegas, Juan C.; Breshears, David D.; Law, Darin J.; Saleska, Scott R.; Stark, Scott C.

2016-01-01

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia’s GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change. PMID:27851740