The Fairness Debate in U.S.-Japan Economic Relations

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

economic growth for the foreseeable future; any developments that threaten to undermine it would have enormous consequences for the future of the...foreign businesses. The Japanese view U.S. macroeconomic policy failure as the principal cause of the fairness dispute. There is rep- utable economic...number of comparable political problems. Stereotyping of the other 2 The reason for the dramatic growth of fairness grievances in advanced industrial

Midland's Economy: Past, Present and Future; The Midland/Odessa Economy: Foundation and Future; and Report on Labor Demand in the Permian Basin.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, James L.; McCarty, Nolan M.

As part of an effort to identify ways in which Midland College (Texas) and local businesses can respond to the economic needs of the community, these three papers by the Midland's Business and Economic Development Center offer various perspectives on the economic climate and labor market of the Permian Basis. The first report, "Midland's…

Home Economics Education Career Path Guide and Model Curriculum Standards.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

California State Univ., Northridge.

This curriculum guide developed in California and organized in 10 chapters, provides a home economics education career path guide and model curriculum standards for high school home economics programs. The first chapter contains information on the following: home economics education in California, home economics careers for the future, home…

Assessing economic impacts to coastal recreation and tourism from oil and gas development in the Oregon and Washington Outer Continental Shelf. Inventory and evaluation of Washington and Oregon coastal recreation resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellis, G.M.; Johnson, N.S.; Chapman, D.

The purpose of the three-part study was to assist Materials Management Service (MMS) planners in evaluation of the anticipated social impact of proposed oil and gas development on the environment. The purpose of the report is primarily to analyze the econometric models of the Dornbusch study. The authors examine, in detail, key aspects of the gravity, consumer surplus, and economic effects (input-output) models. The purpose is two-fold. First, the authors evaluate the performance of the model in satisfying the objective for which it was developed: analyzing economic impacts of OCS oil and gas development in California. Second, the authors evaluatemore » the applicability of the modeling approach employed in the Dornbusch study for analyzing potential OCS development impacts in Washington and Oregon. At the end of the report, the authors offer suggestions for any future study of economic impacts of OCS development in Washington and Oregon. The recommendations concern future data gathering procedures and alternative modeling approaches for measuring economic impacts.« less

Information Technology for Economic and Social Benefit--Options for Bangladesh.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bhuiyan, Farhad Ali

2002-01-01

Considers how information technology (IT) can help socioeconomic growth of developing countries based on experiences in Bangladesh. Topics include Bangladesh's development plans; future economic growth trends triggered by IT; emerging technologies; intellectual and societal development; industrial revolutions; telematics; regional and world…

Potential for Jobs and Economic Development from Offshore Wind in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, Suzanne

In California's future scenarios, energy demand increases with population growth and productivity. Decision-makers will have to make choices about which energy resources to utilize, and offshore wind offers one option for carbon-free electricity with the potential for increased local jobs. This presentation discusses results from an NREL report, Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios. Presenter Suzanne Tegen describes the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model and its results for two offshore wind scenarios in California. She discusses different assumptions and how they affect the scenarios.

Examining Extension's Capacity in Community Resource and Economic Development: Viewpoints of Extension Administrators on the Role of Community Resource and Economic Development in the Extension Portfolio

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Urbanowitz, Seth C.; Wilcox, Michael D., Jr.

2013-01-01

The survey-based research reported here offers insights on community, resource, and economic development (CRED) Extension programming at the national and regional level. The results present a national picture of CRED programming, research, and potential future programming opportunities that Extension could capitalize on. The research shows that…

The place of space technology in economic development: Reflections on present and future aspects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lebeau, A.; Reuter, K. E.

1980-01-01

The effects of the development of satellite applications on the orientation of the space effort were examined. The gap between available and exploited technology, the impact of the current economic climate and future trends are discussed. Europe's low level of public funding for its space effort, in comparison to other space powers, and the dangers of complacency regarding Europe's competitiveness in the space market are illustrated. A proposal for the general direction which Europe's future strategy must take if European independence in this field is to be preserved is presented.

Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

2016-04-01

Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We develop an original hydroeconomic model able to compare future water supply and demand on a large scale, while representing river basin heterogeneity. On the demand side, we focus on the two main sectors of water use: the irrigation and domestic sectors. Demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. Irrigation requirements are computed for 12 types of crops, at the 0.5° spatial resolution, under future climatic conditions (A1B scenario). The computation of the economic benefits of irrigation water is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The economic value of domestic water is defined as the economic surplus. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water inflows to the reservoirs. Operating rules of the reservoirs are set up using a parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach. The objective is to maximise water benefits. We introduce prudential parametric rules in order to take into account spatial and temporal trade-offs. The methodology is applied to Algeria at the 2050 horizon. Overall, our results show that the supply-demand imbalance and its costs will increase in most basins under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that the benefits of operating rules based on economic criteria are not unequivocally increased with global changes: in some basins the positive impact of economic prioritisation is higher under future conditions, but in other basins it is higher under historical conditions. Global changes may be an incentive to use valuation in operating rules in some basins. In other basins, the benefits of reservoirs management based on economic criteria are less pronounced; in this case, trade-offs could arise between implementing economic based operation policies or not. Given its generic nature and low data requirements, the framework developed could be implemented in other regions concerned with water scarcity and its cost, or extended to a global coverage. Water policies at the country or regional level could be assessed.

Climate Change and Costs: Investigating Students' Reasoning on Nature and Economic Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sternang, Li; Lundholm, Cecilia

2012-01-01

The tensions between environmental protection and economic growth are critical to future well-being, and it is therefore important to understand how young people conceptualize these tensions. The aim of the present study is to explore students' solutions to the dilemma of economic development and mitigating climate change, with regard to societal…

Incorporating understanding of informal economic activity in natural resource and economic development policy.

Treesearch

Rebecca J. McLain; Susan J. Alexander; Eric T. Jones

2008-01-01

This report synthesizes the literature on the role of informal economic activity in the United States postindustrial economy. Informal economic activity is expanding in the United States and is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. The formal and informal economic sectors are inextricably intertwined, with individuals and households combining elements of both...

Influence of Building Material Solution of Structures to Effectiveness of Real Estate Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somorová, Viera

2015-11-01

Real estate development is in its essence the development process characterized by a considerable dynamics. The purpose of the development process is the creation of buildings which can be either rented by future unknown users or sold in the real estate market. A first part of the paper is dedicated to the analysis of the parameters of buildings solutions considering the future operating costs in a phase of designing. Material solution of external structures is a main factor not only in determining the future operating costs but also in achieving the subsequent economic effectiveness of the real estate development. To determine the relationship between economic efficiency criteria and determine the optimal material variant of building constructions for the specific example is the aim of the second part of paper.

Future of federal research and development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldman, D.T.

1995-12-31

This paper very briefly describes factors affecting federal funding for research and development. Historical, political, and economic aspects of funding are outlined. Projections of future funding is provided in general terms. The potential of the national laboratories for continued research and development contributions is described.

Economic effects of propulsion system technology on existing and future transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sallee, G. P.

1974-01-01

The results of an airline study of the economic effects of propulsion system technology on current and future transport aircraft are presented. This report represents the results of a detailed study of propulsion system operating economics. The study has four major parts: (1) a detailed analysis of current propulsion system maintenance with respect to the material and labor costs encountered versus years in service and the design characteristics of the major elements of the propulsion system of the B707, b727, and B747. (2) an analysis of the economic impact of a future representative 1979 propulsion system is presented with emphasis on depreciation of investment, fuel costs and maintenance costs developed on the basis of the analysis of the historical trends observed. (3) recommendations concerning improved methods of forecasting the maintenance cost of future propulsion systems are presented. A detailed method based on the summation of the projected labor and material repair costs for each major engine module and its installation along with a shorter form suitable for quick, less detailed analysis are presented, and (4) recommendations concerning areas where additional technology is needed to improve the economics of future commercial propulsion systems are presented along with the suggested economic benefits available from such advanced technology efforts.

Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, N.; Overholt, W.; Thomas, J.; Wiener, A. J.

1975-01-01

Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

PubMed Central

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watson, A.; Sandor, D.; Butheau, M.

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategiesmore » (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.« less

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategiesmore » (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.« less

Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

PubMed

Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

2014-04-01

Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

Impact of Canadian economic development on northern Montana highways phase II, ports of Wild Horse and Morgan highway corridors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

The purpose of this study is to determine whether highway infrastructure in Montana is adequate to support future expected growth in traffic : resulting from economic development in Canada, and a number of potential changes in border operations, indu...

The Challenge of Unemployment. A Report to Labour Ministers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

This report consists of an analysis of labor market conditions in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries and an exploration of possible future policy responses to the problems of unemployment. Covered in the labor market analysis are the following topics: the macro-economic environment (macro-economic trends…

General Economic and Demographic Background and Projections for Indiana Library Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foust, James D.; Tower, Carl B.

Before future library needs can be estimated, economic and demographic variables that influence the demand for library services must be projected and estimating equations relating library needs to economic and demographic parameters developed. This study considers the size, location and age-sex characteristics of Indiana's current population and…

Undergraduate Economics Journals: Learning by Doing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leekley, Robert M.; Davis-Kahl, Stephanie; Seeborg, Michael C.

2013-01-01

Although there are currently only a few undergraduate journals in economics, we expect their numbers to increase substantially in the future because of several developments: (1) research and writing activity is increasing in economics programs, (2) online publication is now more feasible and cost efficient than ever, and (3) students are…

Economic Disadvantage in Complex Family Systems: Expansion of Family Stress Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnett, Melissa A.

2008-01-01

Economic disadvantage is associated with multiple risks to early socioemotional development. This article reviews research regarding family stress frameworks to model the pathways from economic disadvantage to negative child outcomes via family processes. Future research in this area should expand definitions of family and household to incorporate…

The Arctic zone: possibilities and risks of development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sentsov, A.; Bolsunovskaya, Y.; Melnikovich, E.

2016-09-01

The authors analyze the Arctic region innovative possibilities from the perspective of political ideology and strategy. The Arctic region with its natural resources and high economic potential attracts many companies and it has become an important area of transnational development. At present, the Arctic region development is of great importance in terms of natural resource management and political system development. However, the most important development issue in the Arctic is a great risk of different countries’ competing interests in economic, political, and legal context. These are challenges for international partnership creating in the Arctic zone, Russian future model developing for the Arctic, and recognition of the Arctic as an important resource for the Russians. The Russian economic, military, and political expansion in the Arctic region has the potential to strengthen the national positions. The authors present interesting options for minimizing and eliminating political risks during the Arctic territories development and define an effective future planning model for the Russian Arctic.

The need for guidelines and the use of economic evidence in decision-making in Thailand: lessons learnt from the development of the national list of essential drugs.

PubMed

Wibulpolprasert, Suwit

2008-06-01

Since 2004, the Subcommittee for Development of the National List of Essential Drugs (NLED) has embarked upon an historical evolution of applying evidence to the revision, inclusion and exclusion of medicines into and from the list. Then, the revision of the 2008 NLED was the first time in Thai history where the drug selection process in Thailand formally incorporated pharmacoeconomics. At present, the lack of a standard methodology for conducting economic evaluation is a major barrier that diminishes the potential use of economic evidence. The development of national economic evaluation guidelines by a group of national experts was subsequently endorsed by members in the Subcommittee as useful tools for future NLED revision. They emphasize that these guidelines should be applied not only to those evaluations conducted by public institutions but also by private pharmaceutical companies that often use this evidence for their marketing, or even for future requirements of economic information from industry, as complementary evidence for inclusion of health technology.

Estimating the Economic Potential of Offshore Wind in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beiter, P.; Musial, W.; Smith, A.

The potential for cost reduction and market deployment for offshore wind varies considerably within the United States. This analysis estimates the future economic viability of offshore wind at more than 7,000 sites under a variety of electric sector and cost reduction scenarios. Identifying the economic potential of offshore wind at a high geospatial resolution can capture the significant variation in local offshore resource quality, costs, and revenue potential. In estimating economic potential, this article applies a method initially developed in Brown et al. (2015) to offshore wind and estimates the sensitivity of results under a variety of most likely electricmore » sector scenarios. For the purposes of this analysis, a theoretical framework is developed introducing a novel offshore resource classification system that is analogous to established resource classifications from the oil and gas sector. Analyzing economic potential within this framework can help establish a refined understanding across industries of the technology and site-specific risks and opportunities associated with future offshore wind development. The results of this analysis are intended to inform the development of the U.S. Department of Energy's offshore wind strategy.« less

Paediatric health economic evaluations: a world view.

PubMed

Ungar, Wendy J

2007-01-01

As economic evaluation methods evolve, their applicability to special populations, such as children, has received increased scrutiny. The objective was to review paediatric health economic evaluations published over the last quarter century, comment on trends, discuss gaps between developed and developing nations, and point to future directions for research. Data compiled for the Paediatric Economic Database Evaluation (PEDE) project to 2003 were used to describe temporal and geographic trends and evaluate the frequency of intervention categories and conditions studied. The volume of paediatric health economic evaluations rose rapidly since 1980. Studies of infective/parasitic diseases, congenital anomalies and complications of pregnancy accounted for the majority. Prevention rather than treatment was emphasized. Most evaluations performed since 1998 (78%) were cost-effectiveness analyses. Cost-utility analyses were rare. The US produced half of all publications, with the U.K. contributing 12%. Economic evaluations from developing countries were uncommon, despite an urgent need for evidence-based decision-making in these regions. The interventions studied reflected local health priorities; HIV and malaria prevention were more commonly studied in developing nations, whereas treatments for asthma and birth malformations were more often evaluated in developed nations. Despite global initiatives to combat disease, developing nations rely on foreign research to inform implementation of local health programs. There is a need for better methods for data transfer and extrapolation. Future research must focus on paediatric models of costs and consequences and the development of tools to measure long-term effects.

Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

2017-04-01

The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

KSC-05PD-0799

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. Lynda Weatherman, president and CEO of the Economic Development Commission of Floridas Space Coast, and Jim Kennedy, director of Kennedy Space Center, sign a three-year Space Act Agreement for economic development cooperation in support of existing and future missions of NASA at KSC. The agreement underscores business development strategies to ensure KSC and Brevard County continue to be competitive and develop space-related initiatives.

A forecasting study on Chinese television development (1986 to 2001).

PubMed

Sun, L

1988-01-01

Given its widespread availability and impact on social values, television is expected to play an important role in China's modernization drive. Necessary to this process is a detailed analysis of the framework in which the technical aspects of television's development are related to political, economic, telecommunications, and social factors. To facilitate this analysis, a Delphi survey was conducted in 1986 as was a cross-impact analysis assisted by computer modelling. Entitled "Future Development of Chinese Television, 1986-2001," the Delphi survey sought to provide decision makers with operationally meaningful assistance in the form of information and analysis. The responses from experts suggested that, if economic growth can be sustained over the next 5 years, telecommunications development will receive top priority in state planning. Cross-impact analysis helps to clarify and promote better understanding of the complex relationships among future events and trends. This analysis tended to confirm the hypothesis that a nongovernmental television station is unlikely to emerge before 1991. Crucial to the success of any television policy (such as cable television service or videotext systems) is legislative support. The appearance of a nongovernmental television station would have a considerable impact on the private sector in China and lead to competition in programming quality, attracting audiences, and further commercialization. While the future development of Chinese television is dependent on economic factors such as purchasing power and the quality of life, its development can thus also be expected to exert a strong influence on economic life.

Kon-Tiki: Spatio-Temporal Maps for Socio-Economic Sustainability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ahamer, Gilbert

2014-01-01

Purpose: The overall purpose of this paper is to detect spatial, temporal, sectoral, thematic and other patterns or transitions in techno-socio-economic evolution that are likely to co-determine future development and allow the steering of it. The development of a "Global Change Data Base" (GCDB) promises a graphically and geographically…

Rural influentials' perceptions of tourism and its potential for economic development: a qualitative study

Treesearch

Steven W. Burr

1995-01-01

Rural residents' perceptions of tourism and its associated impacts are likely to be important in planning, development, marketing, and operation of existing and future tourism projects. This study examines rural influentials' perceptions of tourism as a tool for economic revitalization in Pennsylvania's rural counties, its present impact, and its...

Links to the Future: The Role of Information and Telecommunications Technology in Appalachian Economic Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oden, Michael; Strover, Sharon

This report documents the status of information, computing, and telecommunications (ICT) technologies in the Appalachian region, assessing their potential relationship to economic growth and the federal, state, and local policies that influence their development. Key findings include the following. Leading producers of ICT products and services…

[Economic Growth and Development].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clausen, A. W.

Recent efforts of the World Bank to improve global economic problems are described, issues which will influence the role of the World Bank in the decade to come are discussed, and the Bank's future role is examined. Recent World Bank efforts to help developing nations include a lending program, project investments, analytical and advisory work,…

Status Survey of Secondary School Home Economics Programs in the State of Wisconsin, 1972; Abstract of Status Survey.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monts, Elizabeth A.; And Others

A survey of the middle and senior high school home economics teachers and principals in Wisconsin was conducted to identify the present status of the home economics program which would serve as a basis for future program development and staff education. To obtain an accurate description of the home economics program, questionnaires were developed…

Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

PubMed

Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

2013-01-01

Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

Power systems for future missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gill, S. P.; Frye, P. E.; Littman, Franklin D.; Meisl, C. J.

1994-01-01

A comprehensive scenario of future missions was developed and applicability of different power technologies to these missions was assessed. Detailed technology development roadmaps for selected power technologies were generated. A simple methodology to evaluate economic benefits of current and future power system technologies by comparing Life Cycle Costs of potential missions was developed. The methodology was demonstrated by comparing Life Cycle Costs for different implementation strategies of DIPS/CBC technology to a selected set of missions.

How Sustainable is Groundwater Abstraction? A Global Assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I.; Van Beek, R.; Gleeson, T. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F.

2016-12-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible freshwater resource and is of critical importance for irrigation, and thus for global food security. For regions with high demands, groundwater abstractions often exceed recharge and persistent groundwater depletion occurs. The direct effects of depletion are falling groundwater levels, increased pumping costs, land subsidence, and reduced baseflows to rivers. Water demands are expected to increase further due to growing population, economic development, and climate change, posing the urgent question how sustainable current water abstractions are worldwide and where and when these abstractions approach conceivable economic and environmental limits. In this study we estimated trends over 1960-2100 in groundwater levels, resulting from changes in demand and climate. We explored the limits of groundwater abstraction by predicting where and when groundwater levels drop that deep that groundwater gets unattainable for abstraction (economic limit) or, that groundwater baseflows to rivers drop below environmental requirements (environmental limit). We used a global hydrological model coupled to a groundwater model, meaning lateral groundwater flows, river infiltration and drainage, and infiltration and capillary-rise are simulated dynamically. Historical data and projections are used to prescribe water demands and climate forcing to the model. For the near future we used RCP8.5 and applied globally driest, average, and wettest GCM to test climate sensitivity. Results show that in general environmental limits are reached before economic limits, for example starting as early as the 1970s compared to the 1980s for economic limits in the upper Ganges basin. Economic limits are mostly related to regions with depletion, while environmental limits are reached also in regions were groundwater and surface water withdrawals are significant but depletion is not taking place (yet), for example in Spain and Portugal. In the near future, more regions will reach their limits, current depletion regions will expand and new regions experiencing depletion will develop. Regionally the increasing level of groundwater stress, economically and environmentally, will be an important factor in future economic development and could lead to socio-economic tension.

How Sustainable is Groundwater Abstraction? A Global Assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I.; Van Beek, R.; Gleeson, T. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible freshwater resource and is of critical importance for irrigation, and thus for global food security. For regions with high demands, groundwater abstractions often exceed recharge and persistent groundwater depletion occurs. The direct effects of depletion are falling groundwater levels, increased pumping costs, land subsidence, and reduced baseflows to rivers. Water demands are expected to increase further due to growing population, economic development, and climate change, posing the urgent question how sustainable current water abstractions are worldwide and where and when these abstractions approach conceivable economic and environmental limits. In this study we estimated trends over 1960-2100 in groundwater levels, resulting from changes in demand and climate. We explored the limits of groundwater abstraction by predicting where and when groundwater levels drop that deep that groundwater gets unattainable for abstraction (economic limit) or, that groundwater baseflows to rivers drop below environmental requirements (environmental limit). We used a global hydrological model coupled to a groundwater model, meaning lateral groundwater flows, river infiltration and drainage, and infiltration and capillary-rise are simulated dynamically. Historical data and projections are used to prescribe water demands and climate forcing to the model. For the near future we used RCP8.5 and applied globally driest, average, and wettest GCM to test climate sensitivity. Results show that in general environmental limits are reached before economic limits, for example starting as early as the 1970s compared to the 1980s for economic limits in the upper Ganges basin. Economic limits are mostly related to regions with depletion, while environmental limits are reached also in regions were groundwater and surface water withdrawals are significant but depletion is not taking place (yet), for example in Spain and Portugal. In the near future, more regions will reach their limits, current depletion regions will expand and new regions experiencing depletion will develop. Regionally the increasing level of groundwater stress, economically and environmentally, will be an important factor in future economic development and could lead to socio-economic tension.

The economic feasibility of seawater desalination over the global scale: assessment of the production cost development and national water price until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, L.; Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

As many countries are suffering water scarcity due to the climate change and human activities, seawater desalination using reverse osmosis (SWRO) has shown to be a progressively promising countermeasure to satisfy the growing water demand. Therefore, the economic feasibility assessment of SWRO will be beneficial for the potential investors and policy-makers of government. In present study, it have proposed a systematic method to evaluate the economic feasibility of implementing SWRO in 140 counties and further estimated the potential future diffusion of SWRO over global scale by 2050. To the purpose, two models has been separately developed to simulate the production cost of SWRO and conventional water price, which are identified as the critical economic factors for feasibility evaluation of SWRO. These two models were firstly applied to historical validation in which proven to be able to well simulate both these two economic factors, and then were applied globally for future simulation over the period of 2015-2050 under three socioeconomic scenarios, i.e. SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 1-3. Basin on the estimated production cost and water price, the economic feasibility of adopting SWRO coupling with its future potentialities were carefully evaluated. As a result, it indicated that SWRO was expected to be cost-effectively adopted in more countries by 2050, especially in these developing countries. The significant potential diffusion of SWRO in countries was mainly attributed to both the diminishing production cost and the increasing conventional water price as a result of income growth globally in three SSPs scenarios.

Cost collection and analysis for health economic evaluation.

PubMed

Smith, Kristine A; Rudmik, Luke

2013-08-01

To improve the understanding of common health care cost collection, estimation, analysis, and reporting methodologies. Ovid MEDLINE (1947 to December 2012), Cochrane Central register of Controlled Trials, Database of Systematic Reviews, Health Technology Assessment, and National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database. This article discusses the following cost collection methods: defining relevant resources, quantification of consumed resources, and resource valuation. It outlines the recommendations for cost reporting in economic evaluations and reviews the techniques on how to handle cost data uncertainty. Last, it discusses the controversial topics of future costs and patient productivity losses. Health care cost collection and estimation can be challenging, and an organized approach is required to optimize accuracy of economic evaluation outcomes. Understanding health care cost collection and estimation techniques will improve both critical appraisal and development of future economic evaluations.

Dairy cow culling strategies: making economical culling decisions.

PubMed

Lehenbauer, T W; Oltjen, J W

1998-01-01

The purpose of this report was to examine important economic elements of culling decisions, to review progress in development of culling decision support systems, and to discern some of the potentially rewarding areas for future research on culling models. Culling decisions have an important influence on the economic performance of the dairy but are often made in a nonprogrammed fashion and based partly on the intuition of the decision maker. The computer technology that is available for dairy herd management has made feasible the use of economic models to support culling decisions. Financial components--including profit, cash flow, and risk--are major economic factors affecting culling decisions. Culling strategies are further influenced by short-term fluctuations in cow numbers as well as by planned herd expansion. Changes in herd size affect the opportunity cost for postponed replacement and may alter the relevance of optimization strategies that assume a fixed herd size. Improvements in model components related to biological factors affecting future cow performance, including milk production, reproductive status, and mastitis, appear to offer the greatest economic potential for enhancing culling decision support systems. The ultimate value of any culling decision support system for developing economic culling strategies will be determined by its results under field conditions.

Towards Mass Higher Education. Issues and Dilemmas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

To discuss a number of major issues related to policies for the future development of higher education systems, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) organized a Conference on Future Structures of Post-Secondary Education, which took place in Paris in June 1973. High officials responsible for education policy in OECD…

Future float zone development in industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandfort, R. M.

1980-01-01

The present industrial requirements for float zone silicon are summarized. Developments desired by the industry in the future are reported. The five most significant problems faced today by the float zone crystal growth method in industry are discussed. They are economic, large diameter, resistivity uniformity, control of carbon, and swirl defects.

Technologies of the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lipson, Joseph I.; Fisher, Kathleen M.

1985-01-01

In the future, the requirements of industry will generate a wide range of hardware devices and software programs that will significantly alter and improve the quality of education. The driving forces behind the development of new technological devices include economics; emotional factors, e.g., the desire to develop aids for the handicapped;…

KSC-05PD-0800

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. Lynda Weatherman, president and CEO of the Economic Development Commission of Floridas Space Coast, and Jim Kennedy, director of Kennedy Space Center, congratulate each other after signing a three-year Space Act Agreement for economic development cooperation in support of existing and future missions of NASA at KSC. The agreement underscores business development strategies to ensure KSC and Brevard County continue to be competitive and develop space-related initiatives.

Incorporation of future costs in health economic analysis publications: current situation and recommendations for the future.

PubMed

Gros, Blanca; Soto Álvarez, Javier; Ángel Casado, Miguel

2015-06-01

Future costs are not usually included in economic evaluations. The aim of this study was to assess the extent of published economic analyses that incorporate future costs. A systematic review was conducted of economic analyses published from 2008 to 2013 in three general health economics journals: PharmacoEconomics, Value in Health and the European Journal of Health Economics. A total of 192 articles met the inclusion criteria, 94 of them (49.0%) incorporated future related medical costs, 9 (4.2%) also included future unrelated medical costs and none of them included future nonmedical costs. The percentage of articles including future costs increased from 2008 (30.8%) to 2013 (70.8%), and no differences were detected between the three journals. All relevant costs for the perspective considered should be included in economic evaluations, including related or unrelated, direct or indirect future costs. It is also advisable that pharmacoEconomic guidelines are adapted in this sense.

USSR Report, International Affairs

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-11-17

inalienable component of recent eco- nomic development in Asia and Afri- ca, than a highly important factor promoting their future... promote the development of Siiio-Soviet economic and trade relations. . 76662 CSO: 4005/123 96 JPRS-UIA-86-050 17 November 1986 MIDDLE EAST/NORTH...ASIA AND AFRICA TODAY, No 5, Sep- Oct 86) .• »...<...’.... 59 Economic Aspect of Small Firms in Developing States Assessed (Alexei Tkachenko; ASIA

About ICLUS

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

ICLUS is a project for developing scenarios broadly consistent with global-scale, peer-reviewed storylines of population growth and economic development, which are used by climate change modelers to develop projections of future climate.

Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, William J.; Loucks, Daniel P.

2015-06-01

Water distinguishes our planet compared to all the others we know about. While the global supply of available freshwater is more than adequate to meet all current and foreseeable water demands, its spatial and temporal distributions are not. There are many regions where our freshwater resources are inadequate to meet domestic, economic development and environmental needs. In such regions, the lack of adequate clean water to meet human drinking water and sanitation needs is indeed a constraint on human health and productivity and hence on economic development as well as on the maintenance of a clean environment and healthy ecosystems. All of us involved in research must find ways to remove these constraints. We face multiple challenges in doing that, especially given a changing and uncertain future climate, and a rapidly growing population that is driving increased social and economic development, globalization, and urbanization. How best to meet these challenges requires research in all aspects of water management. Since 1965, the journal Water Resources Research has played an important role in reporting and disseminating current research related to managing the quantity and quality and cost of this resource. This paper identifies the issues facing water managers today and future research needed to better inform those who strive to create a more sustainable and desirable future.

Understanding the drivers of the future water gap in the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Immerzeel, W. W.; Wijngaard, R. R.; Biemans, H.; Lutz, A. F.

2017-12-01

The Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra (IGB) river systems provide water resources for the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors sustaining the lives of about 700 million people. The region is globally a hotspot for climate change as the headwaters of these rivers are fed by melt water from snow and glaciers, both strongly influenced by temperature change. In addition, the hydrology in the region is determined by the monsoon and its future dynamics as a results of climate change remains very uncertain. Simultaneously, the population is projected to grow rapidly over the coming decades, which in combination with strong economic developments, will likely result in a rapid increase in water demand. In this study we attempt to quantify the future water gap in the IGB and attribute this water gap to climate change and socio-economic growth. For the upstream mountainous parts of the basins we use the SPHY model, which is calibrated based on historical streamflow and glacier mass balance data and forced by the latest CMIP5 future climate model data for RCP4.5 and 8.5. Output of this model feeds into the downstream LPJmL model, which allows assessment of downstream climate change impacts and projected changes in water demand as a result of socio-economic developments. The LPJmL model is run for different combinations of RCPs and Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs). Our results show that for the IGB as a whole climate change will increase water availability in the coming decades, due to an overall, albeit uncertain, increase in monsoon precipitation in combination with a sustained melt water supply from the upstream parts of the basins. However, irrespective of the SSP and RCP, the water demand as a result of socio-economic growth is expected to increase extremely fast in the near future and this is likely to be the main adaptation challenge for the IGB as far as water shortages are concerned. Our results also show that regional and temporal variation in the water gap is large and that basin specific adaptation measures are required that take into account both socio-economic developments as well as climate change.

Spatial analysis on future housing markets: economic development and housing implications.

PubMed

Liu, Xin; Wang, Lizhe

2014-01-01

A coupled projection method combining formal modelling and other statistical techniques was developed to delineate the relationship between economic and social drivers for net new housing allocations. Using the example of employment growth in Tyne and Wear, UK, until 2016, the empirical analysis yields housing projections at the macro- and microspatial levels (e.g., region to subregion to elected ward levels). The results have important implications for the strategic planning of locations for housing and employment, demonstrating both intuitively and quantitatively how local economic developments affect housing demand.

Spatial Analysis on Future Housing Markets: Economic Development and Housing Implications

PubMed Central

Liu, Xin; Wang, Lizhe

2014-01-01

A coupled projection method combining formal modelling and other statistical techniques was developed to delineate the relationship between economic and social drivers for net new housing allocations. Using the example of employment growth in Tyne and Wear, UK, until 2016, the empirical analysis yields housing projections at the macro- and microspatial levels (e.g., region to subregion to elected ward levels). The results have important implications for the strategic planning of locations for housing and employment, demonstrating both intuitively and quantitatively how local economic developments affect housing demand. PMID:24892097

Iran`s petroleum policy: Current trends and the future outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pezeshki, S.; Fesharaki, F.

1994-12-01

The Iranian economy and political situation have undergone radical changes since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The excesses of the early years of the revolution have gradually given way to moderation and a more pragmatic economic policy--based on the principles of the free market. The petroleum policy, as a subset of the economic policies, has been somewhat affected by the political and economic developments in Iran. The petroleum policy has changed from a position of no foreign participation to a position that includes a desire for foreign participation, the text of a model contract, and an attempt to introduce new technologiesmore » in the upstream sector. This report provides an overview of the key issues facing the Iranian oil industry and the economic context in which the oil industry is operating in Iran. It describes the evolution of policies meant to move the oil industry toward the free market; it discusses Iran`s oil trading partners, the outlook for refining and project investments, and current and likely future developments in the natural gas and petrochemical sectors. In short, the report provides an up-to-date assessment of the Iranian petroleum sector and its likely evolution in the future.« less

The Future of African-Americans to the Year 2000. Summary Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congressional Task Force on the Future of African-Americans, Washington, DC.

This summary report highlights the major features of a comprehensive analysis and forecast of the future of African-Americans. Section 1 discusses the future of the United States. Section 2, "The Past and Present," covers the following topics: (1) "Employment and Economic Development"; (2) "Health"; (3)…

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

2014-03-01

With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

Comprehensive Health Care Economics Curriculum and Training in Radiology Residency.

PubMed

Keiper, Mark; Donovan, Timothy; DeVries, Matthew

2018-06-01

To investigate the ability to successfully develop and institute a comprehensive health care economics skills curriculum in radiology residency training utilizing didactic lectures, case scenario exercises, and residency miniretreats. A comprehensive health care economics skills curriculum was developed to significantly expand upon the basic ACGME radiology residency milestone System-Based Practice, SBP2: Health Care Economics requirements and include additional education in business and contract negotiation, radiology sales and marketing, and governmental and private payers' influence in the practice of radiology. A health care economics curriculum for radiology residents incorporating three phases of education was developed and implemented. Phase 1 of the curriculum constituted basic education through didactic lectures covering System-Based Practice, SBP2: Health Care Economics requirements. Phase 2 constituted further, more advanced didactic lectures on radiology sales and marketing techniques as well as government and private insurers' role in the business of radiology. Phase 3 applied knowledge attained from the initial two phases to real-life case scenario exercises and radiology department business miniretreats with the remainder of the radiology department. A health care economics skills curriculum in radiology residency is attainable and essential in the education of future radiology residents in the ever-changing climate of health care economics. Institution of more comprehensive programs will likely maximize the long-term success of radiology as a specialty by identifying and educating future leaders in the field of radiology. Copyright © 2018 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Historical Context, Current Development, and Future Challenges of Distance Education in Indonesia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zuhairi, Aminudin; Wahyono, Effendi; Suratinah, Sharon

2006-01-01

This article addresses the historical context, current development, and future challenges of distance education in Indonesia. Conditions related to the geography, demography, socio-economic and cultural situations, as well as the availability of technology have encouraged the use of distance education as a valid choice in providing access to…

Interfutures: Facing the Future, Mastering the Probable and Managing the Unpredictable.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

This report discusses the findings of the three year Interfutures Project which studied the future development of advanced industrial societies and the relations between these countries and the developing countries. The major emphasis of the project was to analyze economic problems. However, political and social elements were also studied. The…

The Impact of Resource Wealth On Economic Growth, Governance, and Conflict in Afghanistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

charged with developing the mining sector . While analysis of aid programs in the country shows flaws in governance and monetary policies, there are...indications that the incentives induced by the emerging mining sector have triggered a shift toward a future-oriented development strategy amongst...the realization of the country’s economic potential has positively affected government institutions charged with developing the mining sector . While

A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015-2030

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beiter, Philipp; Stehly, Tyler

The potential for cost reduction and economic viability for offshore wind varies considerably within the United States. This analysis models the cost impact of a range of offshore wind locational cost variables across more than 7,000 potential coastal sites in the United States' offshore wind resource area. It also assesses the impact of over 50 technology innovations on potential future costs between 2015 and 2027 (Commercial Operation Date) for both fixed-bottom and floating wind systems. Comparing these costs to an initial assessment of local avoided generating costs, this analysis provides a framework for estimating the economic potential for offshore wind.more » Analyzing economic potential within this framework can help establish a refined understanding across industries of the technology and site-specific risks and opportunities associated with future offshore wind development. The findings from the original report indicate that under the modeled scenario, offshore wind can be expected to achieve significant cost reductions and may approach economic viability in some parts of the United States within the next 15 years.« less

Driving Economic Growth: Higher Education--A Core Strategic Asset to the UK. Higher Education in Focus: Driving Economic Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Universities UK, 2011

2011-01-01

This publication highlights the critical role UK universities will continue to play in reviving and sustaining economic growth across the country. Using a range of visual data and statistics, it highlights that the UK's future success depends on developing innovation and the knowledge economy in what is an increasingly competitive global…

Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Gerten, Dieter; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Biewald, Anne; Popp, Alexander

2013-06-01

An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.

ED QUEST: A Model Procedure for Futures Planning in Educational Organizations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Charles F.

Most educational planning models are weak at identifying future events and assessing their impact on education. At best they assume a surprise-free future in which present trends continue unabated and interrelationships among social, economic, political, and technological forces stay the same. The ED QUEST model was developed to ameliorate these…

78 FR 29248 - Fisheries of the Exclusive Economic Zone Off Alaska; Revise Maximum Retainable Amounts of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-20

... (and other species in the future) to the Western Alaska Community Development Quota (CDQ) Program in... this determination will be made in future harvest specifications should new TAC categories be created... the CDQ Program in the future. These regulatory amendments are required to manage Kamchatka flounder...

Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

2015-12-01

Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

PubMed

Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

2015-01-01

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

PubMed Central

Wang, Shaojian

2015-01-01

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions. PMID:26397373

The economic impact of foot and mouth disease and its control in South-East Asia: a preliminary assessment with special reference to Thailand.

PubMed

Perry, B D; Kalpravidh, W; Coleman, P G; Horst, H S; McDermott, J J; Randolph, T F; Gleeson, L J

1999-08-01

A pilot study of the economic impact of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in the countries and region of South-East Asia is described. Previous economic impact assessments are reviewed and summarised and a synthesis of these contributions is constructed. A framework for the future economic impact of the disease is then developed, incorporating analyses at the sectoral (production system), national and regional levels. Data requirements for such studies are also identified. Integrated epidemiological and economic models for impact assessment were developed and applied to the case study country of Thailand. The models were used to evaluate the economic viability of FMD control programmes in the country. Scenarios evaluated include the effect of improving vaccination coverage and thus reducing productivity losses, and the effect of eventual eradication of the disease. The results indicate that economic returns to the high expenditures incurred in FMD control could be achieved in the short term if greater international trade in pork products was made possible and export prices higher than those in the domestic market could be attained. If FMD were to be eradicated from Thailand in 2010, the eradication would be economically viable, even without exports, with a predicted benefit-cost ratio of 3.73. With additional exports, the economic justification for control becomes much stronger with a benefit-cost ratio of up to 15:1 being achieved. If eradication is not achieved until 2020, returns remain positive without exports, but at a lower rate. The authors propose that the integrated epidemiological and economic models developed be applied to other countries of the region to gain a more accurate insight into the future benefits of FMD control and eradication in the region.

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

Futures Research and the Strategic Planning Process: Implications for Higher Education. ASHE-ERIC Higher Education Research Report No. 9, 1984.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.; And Others

The use of futures research to improve a college's ability to deal with changes brought about by social, economic, political, and technological developments is discussed, with attention to new planning strategies and forecasting methods. While traditional long-range planning tracks and forecasts the institution's internal development, strategic…

Health economic choices in old age: interdisciplinary perspectives on economic decisions and the aging mind.

PubMed

Nielsen, Lisbeth; Phillips, John W R

2008-01-01

This chapter offers an integrative review of psychological and neurobiological differences between younger and older adults that might impact economic behavior. Focusing on key health economic challenges facing the elderly, it offers perspectives on how these psychological and neurobiological factors may influence decision-making over the life course and considers future interdisciplinary research directions. We review relevant literature from three domains that are essential for developing a comprehensive science of decision-making and economic behavior in aging (psychology, neuroscience, and economics), consider implications for prescription drug coverage and long-term care (LTC) insurance, and highlight future research directions. Older adults face many complex economic decisions that directly affect their health and well-being, including LTC insurance, prescription drug plans, and end of life care. Economic research suggests that many older Americans are not making cost-effective and economically rational decisions. While economic models provide insight into some of the financial incentives associated with these decisions, they typically do not consider the roles of cognition and affect in decision-making. Research has established that older age is associated with predictable declines in many cognitive functions and evidence is accumulating that distinct social motives and affect-processing profiles emerge in older age. It is unknown how these age differences impact the economic behaviors of older people and implies opportunities for path-breaking interdisciplinary research. Our chapter looks to develop interdisciplinary research to better understand the causes and consequences of age-related changes in economic decision-making and guide interventions to improve public programs and overall social welfare.

Some Problems of Industrial Scale-Up.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, A. T.

1985-01-01

Scientific ideas of the biological laboratory are turned into economic realities in industry only after several problems are solved. Economics of scale, agitation, heat transfer, sterilization of medium and air, product recovery, waste disposal, and future developments are discussed using aerobic respiration as the example in the scale-up…

The Economics and Psychology of Personality Traits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borghans, Lex; Duckworth, Angela Lee; Heckman, James J.; ter Weel, Bas

2008-01-01

This paper explores the interface between personality psychology and economics. We examine the predictive power of personality and the stability of personality traits over the life cycle. We develop simple analytical frameworks for interpreting the evidence in personality psychology and suggest promising avenues for future research. The paper…

The Nature of Work in a Changing Society.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Best, Fred

1985-01-01

Influences on the future world of work are considered: values and world views, knowledge and skills, management and organizational norms, general economic conditions, investment and savings, availability of raw materials, economic competition, and technological developments. Also discusses the rate of change and where transitions are expected to…

Airframe technology for aircraft energy efficiency. [economic factors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, R. L., Jr.; Maddalon, D. V.

1984-01-01

The economic factors that resulted in the implementation of the aircraft energy efficiency program (ACEE) are reviewed and airframe technology elements including content, progress, applications, and future direction are discussed. The program includes the development of laminar flow systems, advanced aerodynamics, active controls, and composite structures.

Water as the future clash for civilizations: a fresh conceptual approach for a Global Trinity? Water Scarcity and Future Conflict- consideration of water scarcity as a primary cause of conflict in the future requiring an adjustment to the Western approach to threats.

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-25

of 70% by 2050. Meanwhile, economic growth and individual wealth have been producing a shift in diets from predominantly starch-based to meat and...44 From its most remote source at the head of the River Luvironzo near Lake Tanganyika, to its mouth on the Mediterranean Sea, at 6,700km the...economic development of Africa across all major parts of the continent; linking processes in southern Africa to northern Africa and the Mediterranean

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-11-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin; Steinberg, Daniel

This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be publishedmore » as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.« less

Assessing the economic impact of Rx-to-OTC switches: systematic review and guidelines for future development.

PubMed

Cohen, J; Millier, A; Karray, S; Toumi, M

2013-01-01

Switching drugs from prescription to non-prescription status (Rx-to-OTC) presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities to policy-makers and the industry in terms of managing health outcomes, pharmaceutical spending, and steering of consumer choices of therapy. Decision-analytic models are used to address uncertainty and produce reasonable estimates of the economic impact of switches for payers. This article presents a critical literature review of existing models which assess the economic impact of Rx-to-OTC switches, and provides guidelines in which future economic evaluations of Rx-to-OTC switches could be improved. A comprehensive search strategy was implemented in Medline and Embase, to retrieve published economic evaluations on Rx-to-OTC switches from 1995-2010. The research digest of the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) was reviewed for potentially relevant abstracts for the past 3 years. Each model used was critically evaluated in terms of structure, relevance of inputs, methodology used, and robustness of results. Worldwide, the economic impact of Rx-to-OTC switches has only been evaluated in a total of 12 peer-reviewed publications. Ten out of 12 studies were US-based, and two European-based. The models covered various disease categories, including allergy, hypercholesterolemia, gastroenterology, contraception, pulmonology, and virology. Seventy-five per cent of the models predicted cost savings for payers and patients. Limitations of the models mainly included use of strong assumptions and non-inclusion of specific populations due to lack of data. Guidelines were developed to help future model development. They cover structural issues on decision context, health states, and clinical outcomes, and other considerations for model specifications. Although reviewed studies lacked quality, this review of economic evidence of Rx-to-OTC switches suggests that switches may produce cost savings to public and private payers. This is especially important in light of the trend towards more switches.

A framework to analyze emissions implications of manufacturing shifts in the industrial sector through integrating bottom-up energy models and economic input-output environmental life cycle assessment models

EPA Science Inventory

Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future unc...

Assessing the benefits and economic values of trees

Treesearch

David J. Nowak

2017-01-01

Understanding the environmental, economic, and social/community benefits of nature, in particular trees and forests, can lead to better vegetation management and designs to optimize environmental quality and human health for current and future generations. Computer models have been developed to assess forest composition and its associated effects on environmental...

Prediction of future urban growth using CA-Markov for urban sustainability planning of Banda Aceh, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achmad, A.; Irwansyah, M.; Ramli, I.

2018-03-01

Banda Aceh experienced rapid growth, both physically, socially, and economically, after the Tsunami that devastated it the end of December in 2004. Hence policy controls are needed to direct the pattern of urban growth to achieve sustainable development for the future. The purpose of this paper is to generate a growth model for Banda Aceh using the CA-Markov process. By knowing the changes in land use between 2005 and 2009 from the results of previous research, simulations for 2013, 2019 and 2029 using the application of Idrisi@Selva. CA-Markov models were prepared to determine the quantity of changes. The simulation results showed that, after the Tsunami, the City of Banda Aceh tended to grow towards the coast. For the control of the LUC, the Banda Aceh City government needs to prepare comprehensive and detailed maps and inventory of LUC for the city to provide basic data and information needed for monitoring and evaluation that can be done effectively and efficiently. An institution for monitoring and evaluation of the urban landscape and the LUC should be formed immediately. This institution could consist of representatives from government, academia, community leaders, the private sector and other experts. The findings from this study can be used to start the monitoring and evaluation of future urban growth. Especially for the coastal areas, the local government should immediately prepare special spatial coastal area plans to control growth in those areas and to ensure that the economic benefits from disaster mitigation and coastal protection are preserved. For the development of the city in the future, it is necessary to achieve a balance between economic development, and social welfare with environmental protection and disaster mitigation. iIt will become a big challenge to achieve sustainable development for the future.

Technical and Economic Evaluation of Advanced Air Cargo Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.

1978-01-01

The current air cargo environment and the relevance of advanced technology aircraft in enhancing the efficiency of the 1990 air cargo system are discussed. NASA preliminary design studies are shown to indicate significant potential gains in aircraft efficiency and operational economics for future freighter concepts. Required research and technology elements are outlined to develop a better base for evaluating advanced design concepts. Current studies of the market operation are reviewed which will develop design criteria for a future dedicated cargo transport. Design features desirable in an all-freighter design are reviewed. NASA-sponsored studies of large, distributed-load freighters are reviewed and these designs are compared to current wide-body aircraft. These concepts vary in gross takeoff weight from 0.5 Gg (one million lbs.) to 1.5 Gg (three million lbs.) and are found to exhibit economic advantages over conventional design concepts.

Mitigation of carbon dioxide from the Indonesia energy system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adi, A.C.; Nurrohim, A.; Hidajat, M.N.

1996-12-31

Energy consumption in Indonesia is growing fast in line with the development of national economy. During (1990 - 1993) the emission of CO{sub 2} gas coming from energy sector increased from 150 million tones to 200 million tones in 1993. Whereas, the total methane emission from the oil, gas and coal sub-sector reached 550 kilo tones in 1991 and increased to 670 kilo tones in 1994. This amount of CO{sub 2} and Methane from energy sector was 26% and 10 % respectively of the total emission of Indonesia. Based on the last two decades of Indonesia`s economic growth experience, asmore » a developing country this high economic growth rate of Indonesia in the future will be kept until reaching the newly industrialized country level, which is more than 6% annually in the next decade. This high growth rate economic projection will also added the level of GHG emission in the future. As a developing country Indonesia is one of the fast growing countries. The GDP growth in the year 1995 was more than 7 percent, therefore growth rate of energy consumption in this country also rose following the economic growth.« less

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

2018-05-01

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural land systems under environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sustainability - What are the Odds? Guessing the Future of our Environment, Economy, and Society

EPA Science Inventory

This article examines the concept of sustainability from a global perspective, describing how alternative futures might develop in the environmental, economic, and social dimensions. The alternatives to sustainability appear to be (a) a catastrophic failure of life support, econo...

The ESA activities on future launchers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfeffer, H.

1984-01-01

A future launcher development scenario depends on many assumptions, such as the impetus provided by the probability of future missions, and the political willingness of member states to undertake future developments. Because of the long timescale implied by a coherent launcher development, a step-wise approach within an overall future launcher development plan appears essential. The definition of development steps allows the launcher developments to be adapted to the driving external forces, so that no possible opportunity to Europe in the space launch business is missed out because of improper planning on the absence of a long term goal. The launcher senario, to be presented in 1985, forms part of Europe's overall STS plan for the future. This overall STS plan is one product of the complete STS LTPP, a first draft of which should exist by 1985, and which will be updated regularly to take into account the changing political and economic perspectives.

Economic, neurobiological, and behavioral perspectives on building America’s future workforce

PubMed Central

Knudsen, Eric I.; Heckman, James J.; Cameron, Judy L.; Shonkoff, Jack P.

2006-01-01

A growing proportion of the U.S. workforce will have been raised in disadvantaged environments that are associated with relatively high proportions of individuals with diminished cognitive and social skills. A cross-disciplinary examination of research in economics, developmental psychology, and neurobiology reveals a striking convergence on a set of common principles that account for the potent effects of early environment on the capacity for human skill development. Central to these principles are the findings that early experiences have a uniquely powerful influence on the development of cognitive and social skills and on brain architecture and neurochemistry, that both skill development and brain maturation are hierarchical processes in which higher level functions depend on, and build on, lower level functions, and that the capacity for change in the foundations of human skill development and neural circuitry is highest earlier in life and decreases over time. These findings lead to the conclusion that the most efficient strategy for strengthening the future workforce, both economically and neurobiologically, and improving its quality of life is to invest in the environments of disadvantaged children during the early childhood years. PMID:16801553

China Report Economic Affairs No. 348.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-08

four modernizations in the country , which urge us, on the premise of steadily upgrading economic returns and on the basis of the 1980 figure, to...with foreign countries . In line with the history of economic development, the current situation and future trends, we have made estimations on the...to correctly handle the relation between the achievements in labour and the benefits of staff and workers; to expand the decision-making power of

Geothermal development in southwest Idaho: the socioeconomic data base

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, S.G.; Russell, B.F.

This report inventories, analyzes, and appraises the exiting socioeconomic data base for the ten counties in southwest Idaho that would be impacted by any significant geothermal development. The inventory describes key sociological demographic, and economic characteristics, and presents spatial boundaries, housing data, and projections of population and economic activity for the counties. The inventory identifies the significant gaps in the existing data base and makes recommendations for future research.

Geothermal development in southwest Idaho: the socioeconomic data base

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer,S.G.; Russell, B.F.

This report inventories, analyzes, and appraises the existing socioeconomic data base for the ten counties in southwest Idaho that would be impacted by any significant geothermal development. The inventory describes key sociological demographic, and economic characteristics, and presents spatial boundaries, housing data, and projections of population and economic activity for the counties. The inventory identifies the significant gaps in the existing data base and makes recommendations for future research.

National park development in China: conservation or commercialization?

PubMed

Wang, Guangyu; Innes, John L; Wu, Sara W; Krzyzanowski, Judi; Yin, Yongyuan; Dai, Shuanyou; Zhang, Xiaoping; Liu, Sihui

2012-05-01

The rapid development of parks and ecotourism in China has attracted worldwide attention, not only for the beauty of the landscape that the parks are protecting but also for their abundant and often unique biodiversity. However, in some areas, the development of ecotourism has actually led to the degradation of local ecological, economic, and social systems. Using National Forest Parks for demonstration, this article analyzes the current political, institutional, legal, environmental, and economic issues concerning National Parks in China, and examines their potential future development. Although the intention of National Park systems in China is to raise environmental quality, and to protect biodiversity and social livelihoods, their success has varied. Future success will be measured by their capacity to reduce poverty, to promote long-term rehabilitation of wildlife habitats, and to simultaneously protect Chinese culture and biodiversity.

A digital spatial predictive model of land-use change using economic and environmental inputs and a statistical tree classification approach: Thailand, 1970s--1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felkner, John Sames

The scale and extent of global land use change is massive, and has potentially powerful effects on the global climate and global atmospheric composition (Turner & Meyer, 1994). Because of this tremendous change and impact, there is an urgent need for quantitative, empirical models of land use change, especially predictive models with an ability to capture the trajectories of change (Agarwal, Green, Grove, Evans, & Schweik, 2000; Lambin et al., 1999). For this research, a spatial statistical predictive model of land use change was created and run in two provinces of Thailand. The model utilized an extensive spatial database, and used a classification tree approach for explanatory model creation and future land use (Breiman, Friedman, Olshen, & Stone, 1984). Eight input variables were used, and the trees were run on a dependent variable of land use change measured from 1979 to 1989 using classified satellite imagery. The derived tree models were used to create probability of change surfaces, and these were then used to create predicted land cover maps for 1999. These predicted 1999 maps were compared with actual 1999 landcover derived from 1999 Landsat 7 imagery. The primary research hypothesis was that an explanatory model using both economic and environmental input variables would better predict future land use change than would either a model using only economic variables or a model using only environmental. Thus, the eight input variables included four economic and four environmental variables. The results indicated a very slight superiority of the full models to predict future agricultural change and future deforestation, but a slight superiority of the economic models to predict future built change. However, the margins of superiority were too small to be statistically significant. The resulting tree structures were used, however, to derive a series of principles or "rules" governing land use change in both provinces. The model was able to predict future land use, given a series of assumptions, with 90 percent overall accuracies. The model can be used in other developing or developed country locations for future land use prediction, determination of future threatened areas, or to derive "rules" or principles driving land use change.

Biofuels development and the policy regime.

PubMed

Philp, Jim C; Guy, Ken; Ritchie, Rachael J

2013-01-01

Any major change to the energy order is certain to provoke both positive and negative societal responses. The current wave of biofuels development ignited controversies that have re-shaped the thinking about their future development. Mistakes were made in the early support for road transport biofuels in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This article examines some of the policies that shaped the early development of biofuels and looks to the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ex-Ante Economic Impact Assessment of Genetically Modified Banana Resistant to Xanthomonas Wilt in the Great Lakes Region of Africa.

PubMed

Ainembabazi, John Herbert; Tripathi, Leena; Rusike, Joseph; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Manyong, Victor

2015-01-01

Credible empirical evidence is scanty on the social implications of genetically modified (GM) crops in Africa, especially on vegetatively propagated crops. Little is known about the future success of introducing GM technologies into staple crops such as bananas, which are widely produced and consumed in the Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLA). GM banana has a potential to control the destructive banana Xanthomonas wilt disease. To gain a better understanding of future adoption and consumption of GM banana in the GLA countries which are yet to permit the production of GM crops; specifically, to evaluate the potential economic impacts of GM cultivars resistant to banana Xanthomonas wilt disease. The paper uses data collected from farmers, traders, agricultural extension agents and key informants in the GLA. We analyze the perceptions of the respondents about the adoption and consumption of GM crop. Economic surplus model is used to determine future economic benefits and costs of producing GM banana. On the release of GM banana for commercialization, the expected initial adoption rate ranges from 21 to 70%, while the ceiling adoption rate is up to 100%. Investment in the development of GM banana is economically viable. However, aggregate benefits vary substantially across the target countries ranging from US$ 20 million to 953 million, highest in countries where disease incidence and production losses are high, ranging from 51 to 83% of production. The findings support investment in the development of GM banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt disease. The main beneficiaries of this technology development are farmers and consumers, although the latter benefit more than the former from reduced prices. Designing a participatory breeding program involving farmers and consumers signifies the successful adoption and consumption of GM banana in the target countries.

Planning in the 90's for Community Colleges: Coping with Rapid Change by Linking Futures Research with Professional Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Diana K.

The rate of the change now occurring outside of community colleges has made long-range planning an especially difficult task. Futures research, which attempts to forecast future scenarios by studying societal, economic, and demographic trends, can be used effectively to facilitate the institutional planning process by anticipating both internal…

Australian Apprenticeships: Trends, Challenges and Future Opportunities for Dealing with Industry 4.0. Conference Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loveder, Phil

2017-01-01

The Australian economy is in transition. Its future prosperity will depend on greater economic diversification and on innovation and entrepreneurship, hallmarks of Industry 4.0. This has implications for skills development for future workers and for those needing to move into new jobs or roles. It also has a direct impact on apprenticeships--an…

The Creation and Application of Two Innovative Real-Time Delphi and Cross-Impact Simulation Approaches to Forecast the Future: Forecasting High-Speed Broadband Developments for the State of Hawai`i

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergo, Rolv Alexander

2013-01-01

Technology development is moving rapidly and our dependence on information services is growing. Building a broadband infrastructure that can support future demand and change is therefore critical to social, political, economic and technological developments. It is often up to local policy makers to find the best solutions to support this demand…

The Influence of the Knowledge Society: Trends in Adult Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasworm, Carol

2011-01-01

Current understandings of a knowledge economy have been emerging from two defining forces: the rise in quality and intensity of knowledge as a key commodity for economic development and the increasing globalization through information technology of both knowledge exchange and economic activities. The future of adult higher education is focused on…

Thinking globally and acting locally in Mindanao: Supporting the delicate balance of future sustainability in South-East Asian wilderness as well as rural areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, C.

2014-02-01

Although models of future sustainability often talk about effectively balancing economic, social and environmental imperatives or factors, in practice this typically remains an elusive ideal. This paper explores the exemplary possibilities but also dilemmas of a proposed initiative in the resource-rich but under-developed Filippino island province of Mindanao to achieve such a delicate balance in practice. This initiative by Raintrust Sustainable Ventures' proposes to link foreign investment in agricultural development to both the social advancement of local tribal peoples and the protection of large amounts of remaining wilderness areas. Such a case study provides an exemplary basis for discussing the challenge of achieving social and environmental as well as economic domains of 'future sustainability'. The crucial supporting role of information and geospatial technologies in the Raintrust plan will also be discussed.

Southern Connections: Connecting with Each Other, Connecting with the Future. The Final Report of the 1998 Commission on the Future of the South.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Ed

Supported by the state governments of the South, the Southern Growth Policies Board creates strategies for regional economic development. Every 6 years, the Board's chairman (a state governor) appoints a blue-ribbon commission to analyze the condition of the South, develop regional objectives, and recommend approaches to regional problems. This…

Historic Frontier Processes active in Future Space-Based Mineral Extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, D. M.

2000-01-01

The forces that shaped historic mining frontiers are in many cases not bound by geographic or temporal limits. The forces that helped define historic frontiers are active in today's physical and virtual frontiers, and will be present in future space-based frontiers. While frontiers derived from position and technology are primarily economic in nature, non-economic conditions affect the success or failure of individual frontier endeavors, local "mining camps" and even entire frontiers. Frontiers can be defined as the line of activity that divides the established markets and infrastructure of civilization from the unclaimed resources and potential wealth of a wilderness. At the frontier line, ownership of resources is established. The resource can then be developed using capital, energy and information. In a mining setting, the resource is concentrated for economic shipment to the markets of civilization. Profits from the sale of the resource are then used to fund further development of the resource and/or pay investors. Both positional and technical frontiers develop as a series of generations. The profits from each generation of development provides the capital and/or investment incentive for the next round of development. Without profit, the self-replicating process of frontiers stops.

The Economic Impact on Future European Security.

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-07-01

countries in the developing tripolar scenario, I purposely focused this discussion on economics within the realm of Europe with some consideration of...security definitions of a bipolar world to a world of what some would like to consider as multipolar, but is actually evolving into a tripolar world of U.S...Europe-Japan based on economic security.1 In his article describing the new tripolar world, Mr. Bergsten quotes historian Robert Gilpin’s statement

National Economic Value Assessment of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Volume I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Eichman, Joshua

The adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) can reduce household fuel expenditures by substituting electricity for gasoline while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum imports. A scenario approach is employed to provide insights into the long-term economic value of increased PEV market growth across the United States. The analytic methods estimate fundamental costs and benefits associated with an economic allocation of PEVs across households based upon household driving patterns, projected vehicle cost and performance attributes, and simulations of a future electricity grid. To explore the full technological potential of PEVs and resulting demands on the electricity grid, very high PEVmore » market growth projections from previous studies are relied upon to develop multiple future scenarios.« less

A Study of Economical Incentives for Voltage Profile Control Method in Future Distribution Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuji, Takao; Sato, Noriyuki; Hashiguchi, Takuhei; Goda, Tadahiro; Tange, Seiji; Nomura, Toshio

In a future distribution network, it is difficult to maintain system voltage because a large number of distributed generators are introduced to the system. The authors have proposed “voltage profile control method” using power factor control of distributed generators in the previous work. However, the economical disbenefit is caused by the active power decrease when the power factor is controlled in order to increase the reactive power. Therefore, proper incentives must be given to the customers that corporate to the voltage profile control method. Thus, in this paper, we develop a new rules which can decide the economical incentives to the customers. The method is tested in one feeder distribution network model and its effectiveness is shown.

The reality of economics for oncologists.

PubMed

Taylor, David

2017-06-01

This article outlines the historical development of health economics and its present role in oncology related health technology assessments (HTAs). Despite concerns about the prices and immediate costs of new anticancer medicines for indications such as breast cancer overall spending on such treatments is affordable and offers long term value for money in countries such as the US, Canada and those of Western Europe. Oncologists wishing to protect the interests of current and future patients with both advanced and earlier stage cancers may be regarded as having a responsibility to understand the nature of health economic evaluations, and to be actively involved in decisions affecting access to current treatments and future levels of investment in incrementally improving therapies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Counting Jobs and Economic Impacts from Distributed Wind in the United States (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, S.

This conference poster describes the distributed wind Jobs and Economic Development Imapcts (JEDI) model. The goal of this work is to provide a model that estimates jobs and other economic effects associated with the domestic distributed wind industry. The distributed wind JEDI model is a free input-output model that estimates employment and other impacts resulting from an investment in distributed wind installations. Default inputs are from installers and industry experts and are based on existing projects. User input can be minimal (use defaults) or very detailed for more precise results. JEDI can help evaluate potential scenarios, current or future; informmore » stakeholders and decision-makers; assist businesses in evaluating economic development impacts and estimating jobs; assist government organizations with planning and evaluating and developing communities.« less

JPRS Report, East Europe

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-11-21

Assesses Future Role 90EP0068C Warsaw RZECZPOSPOLITA in Polish 16-17Sep89p8 [Article by (kraj): "The Dim Future of the Cooperative Movement "] [Text...on the future and direction of development. In short, the future of the Polish cooperative movement will be discussed. It is hard to say what the... movement . And we can fully agree with this, on condition that this is a genuine cooperative movement . Role of Cooperatives in Changing Economic

The cost of clinical mastitis in the first 30 days of lactation: An economic modeling tool.

PubMed

Rollin, E; Dhuyvetter, K C; Overton, M W

2015-12-01

Clinical mastitis results in considerable economic losses for dairy producers and is most commonly diagnosed in early lactation. The objective of this research was to estimate the economic impact of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation for a representative US dairy. A deterministic partial budget model was created to estimate direct and indirect costs per case of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation. Model inputs were selected from the available literature, or when none were available, from herd data. The average case of clinical mastitis resulted in a total economic cost of $444, including $128 in direct costs and $316 in indirect costs. Direct costs included diagnostics ($10), therapeutics ($36), non-saleable milk ($25), veterinary service ($4), labor ($21), and death loss ($32). Indirect costs included future milk production loss ($125), premature culling and replacement loss ($182), and future reproductive loss ($9). Accurate decision making regarding mastitis control relies on understanding the economic impacts of clinical mastitis, especially the longer term indirect costs that represent 71% of the total cost per case of mastitis. Future milk production loss represents 28% of total cost, and future culling and replacement loss represents 41% of the total cost of a case of clinical mastitis. In contrast to older estimates, these values represent the current dairy economic climate, including milk price ($0.461/kg), feed price ($0.279/kg DM (dry matter)), and replacement costs ($2,094/head), along with the latest published estimates on the production and culling effects of clinical mastitis. This economic model is designed to be customized for specific dairy producers and their herd characteristics to better aid them in developing mastitis control strategies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Future of Migration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

This book comprises papers delivered at a conference of National Experts on Migration. The principle objective of the conference was twofold: to examine significant trends that will affect the future of migration in countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OCED), and to identify the relevant issues that will have to…

NASA Future Forum

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-02-21

Michael Donovan, technology consultant, New Services Development, Hewlett-Packard Company talks during the NASA Future Forum panel titled "Importance of Technology, Science and Innovation for our Economic Future" at The Ohio State University on Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2012 in Columbus, Ohio. The NASA Future Forum features panel discussions on the importance of education to our nation's future in space, the benefit of commercialized space technology to our economy and lives here on Earth, and the shifting roles for the public, commercial and international communities in space. Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

Nutrition, Development, and Population Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berg, Alan

1973-01-01

Focuses on the problem of malnutrition in developing countries through a description of its interrelationships with human development, national economies, economic growth and income, agricultural advances, the crisis in infant feeding practices, new foods, and the population dilemma. Outlines possible future policy directions to significantly…

KSC-2013-3066

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-07-19

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida has signed a new partnership agreement with Ballistic Recovery Systems Inc., or BRS Aerospace of Miami, Fla., for use of the Parachute Refurbishment Facility, or PRF. From left, are Rob Salonen, director of Business Development with the Economic Development Commission, EDC, of Florida’s Space Coast Jim Barfield, EDC treasurer Larry Williams, president and CEO of BRS Aerospace and Center Director Bob Cabana. The PRF previously was used during NASA’s Space Shuttle Program to manufacture and refurbish the solid rocket booster parachutes. Because of NASA’s transition from the shuttle to future commercial and government mission activities, the agreement allows NASA to preserve the unique facility capabilities for future spaceflight projects. Kennedy’s Center Planning and Development team and the Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast worked with BRS Aerospace to establish the agreement. For more information about BRS Aerospace, visit http://www.brsparachutes.com. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiguchi, M.; Hatono, M.; Ikeuchi, H.; Nakamura, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2014-12-01

In this study, flood risks in the present and the end of the 21st century in Asia are estimated using a future socio-economic scenario. Using the runoff data of 7 GCMs (RCP 8.5) of CMIP5, the river discharge, inundation area, and inundation depth are calculated for the assessment of flood risk. Finally, the flood risk is estimated using a function of damage. The flood frequency in the end of the 21st century in Asia tends to increase. Inundation area in Japan, Taiwan, and Kyrgyz is almost unchanged. At the same time, that in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos, and Myanmar reached about 1.4-1.6 times compared to present. Damage cost is largely influenced by economic growth, however, we show that it is important that we distinguish the influence of climate change from economic development and evaluate it when we think about an adaptation.

An Integrated Modeling System for Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Irrigation Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SU, Q.; Karthikeyan, R.; Lin, Y.

2017-12-01

Water resources across the world have been increasingly stressed in the past few decades due to the population and economic growth and climate change. Consequently, the competing use of water among agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors is expected to be increasing. In this study, the water stresses under various climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management scenarios are predicted over the period of 2015-2050 using an integrated model, in which the changes in water supply and demand induced by climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management are dynamically parameterized. Simulations on the case of Texas, Southwest U.S. were performed using the newly developed integrated model, showing that the water stress is projected to be elevated in 2050 over most areas of Texas, particularly at Northern and Southern Plain and metropolitan areas. Climate change represents the most pronounce factor affecting the water supply and irrigation water demand in Texas. The water supply over East Texas is largely reduced in future because of the less precipitation and higher temperature under the climate change scenario, resulting in an elevated irrigation water demand and thus a higher water stress in this region. In contrast, the severity of water shortage in West Texas would be alleviated in future because of climate change. The water shortage index over metropolitan areas would increase by 50-90% under 1.0% migration scenario, suggesting that the population growth in future could also greatly stress the water supply, especially megacities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The projected increase in manufacturing water demand shows little effects on the water stress. Increasing irrigation rate exacerbates the water stress over irrigated agricultural areas of Texas.

Analysis of the interrelationship of energy, economy, and environment: A model of a sustainable energy future for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boo, Kyung-Jin

The primary purpose of this dissertation is to provide the groundwork for a sustainable energy future in Korea. For this purpose, a conceptual framework of sustainable energy development was developed to provide a deeper understanding of interrelationships between energy, the economy, and the environment (E 3). Based on this theoretical work, an empirical simulation model was developed to investigate the ways in which E3 interact. This dissertation attempts to develop a unified concept of sustainable energy development by surveying multiple efforts to integrate various definitions of sustainability. Sustainable energy development should be built on the basis of three principles: ecological carrying capacity, economic efficiency, and socio-political equity. Ecological carrying capacity delineates the earth's resource constraints as well as its ability to assimilate wastes. Socio-political equity implies an equitable distribution of the benefits and costs of energy consumption and an equitable distribution of environmental burdens. Economic efficiency dictates efficient allocation of scarce resources. The simulation model is composed of three modules: an energy module, an environmental module and an economic module. Because the model is grounded on economic structural behaviorism, the dynamic nature of the current economy is effectively depicted and simulated through manipulating exogenous policy variables. This macro-economic model is used to simulate six major policy intervention scenarios. Major findings from these policy simulations were: (1) carbon taxes are the most effective means of reducing air-pollutant emissions; (2) sustainable energy development can be achieved through reinvestment of carbon taxes into energy efficiency and renewable energy programs; and (3) carbon taxes would increase a nation's welfare if reinvested in relevant areas. The policy simulation model, because it is based on neoclassical economics, has limitations such that it cannot fully account for socio-political realities (inter- and intra-generational equity) which are core feature of sustainability. Thus, alternative approaches based on qualitative analysis, such as the multi-criteria approach, will be required to complement the current policy simulation model.

Integrating science, policy and stakeholder perspectives for water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbour, Emily; Allan, Andrew; Whitehead, Paul; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Lazzar, Attila; Lim, Michelle; Munsur Rahman, Md.

2015-04-01

Successful management of water resources requires an integrated approach considering the complex relationships between different biophysical processes, governance frameworks and socio-economic factors. The Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) Deltas project has developed a range of socio-economic scenarios using a participatory approach, and applied these across different biophysical models as well as an integrated environmental, socio-economic model of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta. This work demonstrates a novel approach through the consideration of multiple ecosystem services and related socio-economic factors in the development of scenarios; the application of these to multiple models at multiple scales; and the participatory approach to improve project outcomes and engage national level stakeholders and policy makers. Scenarios can assist in planning for an uncertain future through exploring plausible alternatives. To adequately assess the potential impacts of future changes and management strategies on water resources, the wider biophysical, socio-economic and governance context needs to be considered. A series of stakeholder workshops have been held in Bangladesh to identify issues of main concern relating to the GBM Delta; to iteratively develop scenario narratives for business as usual, less sustainable, and more sustainable development pathways; and to translate these qualitative scenarios into a quantitative form suitable for analysis. The combined impact of these scenarios and climate change on water quantity and quality within the GBM Basin are demonstrated. Results suggest that climate change is likely to impact on both peak and low flows to a greater extent than most socio-economic changes. However, the diversion of water from the Ganges and Brahmaputra has the potential to significantly impact on water availability in Bangladesh depending on the timing and quantity of diversions. Both climate change and socio-economic scenarios are likely to impact on water quality. This work provides the foundation for investigating the effects of different policy and management interventions in coastal Bangladesh, and exploring trade-offs between different water resource objectives, and other ecosystem, social or economic objectives.

Rural Economic Development in the 1980s: Preparing for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Economic Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC. Agriculture and Rural Economics Div.

Seventeen papers review recent changes in the structure and performance of the rural economy and examine alternative policies to facilitate the adjustment of displaced people and their communities. Some point to economic structural change in the 1980s as the cause of financial stress in rural America, in sharp contrast with the 1970s when growth…

A framework to analyze emissions implications of manufacturing shifts in the industrial sector through integrating bottom-up energy models and economic input/output environmental life cycle assessment models

EPA Science Inventory

Future year emissions depend highly on economic, technological, societal and regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze technology development pathways and changes in consumer preferences, and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns while considering fut...

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

Treesearch

Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

Career and Vocational Education in Ohio for the 1980's and Beyond.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swanson, Kathleen T.

Ohio's economic future and the needs of its youth as they prepare for adult roles demand strong leadership at state and local levels as well as cooperation between schools, government, and private enterprise. Leaders should be aware that the state's economic development is tied to vocational education and that vocational education and career…

Viewing International Students as State Stimulus Potential: Current Perceptions and Future Possibilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owens, Deborah L.; Srivastava, Prashant; Feerasta, Aniqa

2011-01-01

In this difficult economic climate state policy makers are increasingly focused on higher education as an economic development tool. Many rust belt states are looking to transform themselves from a state dependent on manufacturing and agriculture to a more diverse knowledge based economy. Many nations use higher education as a catalyst for…

The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In a bigger framework of nexus - water, energy, food, ecosystem - CWATM will be coupled to the existing IIASA models including the Integrated Assessment Model MESSAGE and the global land and ecosystem model GLOBIOM in order to realize an improved assessments of water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus and associated feedback. Our vision for the short to medium term work is to introduce water quality (e.g., salinization in deltas and eutrophication associated with mega cities) into CWATM and to consider qualitative and quantitative measures of transboundary river and groundwater governance into an integrated modelling framework.

Continuous national gross domestic product (GDP) time series for 195 countries: past observations (1850-2005) harmonized with future projections according to the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (2006-2100)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiger, Tobias

2018-04-01

Gross domestic product (GDP) represents a widely used metric to compare economic development across time and space. GDP estimates have been routinely assembled only since the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, making comparisons with prior periods cumbersome or even impossible. In recent years various efforts have been put forward to re-estimate national GDP for specific years in the past centuries and even millennia, providing new insights into past economic development on a snapshot basis. In order to make this wealth of data utilizable across research disciplines, we here present a first continuous and consistent data set of GDP time series for 195 countries from 1850 to 2009, based mainly on data from the Maddison Project and other population and GDP sources. The GDP data are consistent with Penn World Tables v8.1 and future GDP projections from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), and are freely available at http://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2018.010 (Geiger and Frieler, 2018). To ease usability, we additionally provide GDP per capita data and further supplementary and data description files in the online archive. We utilize various methods to handle missing data and discuss the advantages and limitations of our methodology. Despite known shortcomings this data set provides valuable input, e.g., for climate impact research, in order to consistently analyze economic impacts from pre-industrial times to the future.

A Predictive Statistical Model of Navy Career Enlisted Retention Behavior Utilizing Economic Variables.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-01

career retention rates , and to predict future career retention rates in the Navy. The statistical model utilizes economic variables as predictors...The model developed r has a high correlation with Navy career retention rates . The problem of Navy career retention has not been adequately studied, 0D...findings indicate Navy policymakers must be cognizant of the relationships of economic factors to Navy career retention rates . Accrzsiofl ’or NTIS GRA&I

Ocean resources: an economic outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Covey, C.W.

1985-10-01

The scope and dimension of traditional marine activities in economic and marketing terms, e.g., offshore oil and gas, marine transportation, commercial fisheries, marine recreation, hard minerals recovery, and coastal zone activity, are reviewed. The economic outlook for ocean resources is discussed under the following topics: (1) jurisdiction of adjacent waters, (2) the coastal zone, (3) offshore oil and gas, (4) marine transport/shipbuilding, (5) national security, (6) commercial fisheries, (7) marine recreation, (8) hard minerals, and (9) future development.

Costs of integrating economics and conservation planning.

PubMed

Arponen, Anni; Cabeza, Mar; Eklund, Johanna; Kujala, Heini; Lehtomäki, Joona

2010-10-01

Recent literature on systematic conservation planning has focused strongly on economics. It is a necessary component of efficient conservation planning because the question is about effective resource allocation. Nevertheless, there is an increasing tendency toward economic factors overriding biological considerations. Focusing too narrowly on economic cost may lead us back toward solutions resembling those obtained by opportunistic choice of areas, the avoidance of which was the motivation for development of systematic approaches. Moreover, there are many overlooked difficulties in incorporating economic considerations reliably into conservation planning because available economic data and the free market are complex. For instance, economies based on free markets tend to be shortsighted, whereas biodiversity conservation aims far into the future. Although economic data are necessary, they should not be relied on too heavily or considered separately from other sociopolitical factors. We suggest focusing on development of more-comprehensive ecological-economic modeling, while not forgetting the importance of purely biological analyses that are needed as a point of reference for evaluating conservation outcomes. © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Development of a conceptual model evaluating the humanistic and economic burden of Crohn's disease: implications for patient-reported outcomes measurement and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Gater, Adam; Kitchen, Helen; Heron, Louise; Pollard, Catherine; Håkan-Bloch, Jonas; Højbjerre, Lise; Hansen, Brian Bekker; Strandberg-Larsen, Martin

2015-01-01

The primary objective of this review is to develop a conceptual model for Crohn's disease (CD) outlining the disease burden for patients, healthcare systems and wider society, as reported in the scientific literature. A search was conducted using MEDLINE, PsycINFO, EconLit, Health Economic Evaluation Database and Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases. Patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures widely used in CD were reviewed according to the US FDA PRO Guidance for Industry. The resulting conceptual model highlights the characterization of CD by gastrointestinal disturbances, extra-intestinal and systemic symptoms. These symptoms impact physical functioning, ability to complete daily activities, emotional wellbeing, social functioning, sexual functioning and ability to work. Gaps in conceptual coverage and evidence of reliability and validity for some PRO measures were noted. Review findings also highlight the substantial direct and indirect costs associated with CD. Evidence from the literature confirms the substantial burden of CD to patients and wider society; however, future research is still needed to further understand burden from the perspective of patients and to accurately understand the economic burden of disease. Challenges with existing PRO measures also suggest the need for future research to refine or develop new measures.

Status report on education in the economics of animal health: results from a European survey.

PubMed

Waret-Szkuta, Agnès; Raboisson, Didier; Niemi, Jarkko; Aragrande, Maurizio; Gethmann, Jörn; Martins, Sara Babo; Hans, Lucie; Höreth-Böntgen, Detlef; Sans, Pierre; Stärk, Katharina D; Rushton, Jonathan; Häsler, Barbara

2015-01-01

Education on the use of economics applied to animal health (EAH) has been offered since the 1980s. However, it has never been institutionalized within veterinary curricula, and there is no systematic information on current teaching and education activities in Europe. Nevertheless, the need for economic skills in animal health has never been greater. Economics can add value to disease impact assessments; improve understanding of people's incentives to participate in animal health measures; and help refine resource allocation for public animal health budgets. The use of economics should improve animal health decision making. An online questionnaire was conducted in European countries to assess current and future needs and expectations of people using EAH. The main conclusion from the survey is that education in economics appears to be offered inconsistently in Europe, and information about the availability of training opportunities in this field is scarce. There is a lack of harmonization of EAH education and significant gaps exist in the veterinary curricula of many countries. Depending on whether respondents belonged to educational institutions, public bodies, or private organizations, they expressed concerns regarding the limited education on decision making and impact assessment for animal diseases or on the use of economics for general management. Both public and private organizations recognized the increasing importance of EAH in the future. This should motivate the development of teaching methods and materials that aim at developing the understanding of animal health problems for the benefit of students and professional veterinarians.

Geothermal Energy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eaton, William W.

Described are the origin and nature of geothermal energy. Included is the history of its development as an energy source, technological considerations affecting its development as an energy source, its environmental effects, economic considerations, and future prospects of development in this field. Basic system diagrams of the operation of a…

Somalia's Reconstruction: An Opportunity to Create a Responsive Information Infrastructure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abdulla, Ali D.

1996-01-01

Argues that the development of an effective information infrastructure would contribute to Somalia's economic and social renewal. Outlines the attributes of such an infrastructure and makes specific recommendations to future Somali development planners and international donors supporting information development activities. (Author/PEN)

Payloads development for European land mobile satellites: A technical and economical assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perrotta, G.; Rispoli, F.; Sassorossi, T.; Spazio, Selenia

1990-01-01

The European Space Agency (ESA) has defined two payloads for Mobile Communication; one payload is for pre-operational use, the European Land Mobile System (EMS), and one payload is for promoting the development of technologies for future mobile communication systems, the L-band Land Mobile Payload (LLM). A summary of the two payloads and a description of their capabilities is provided. Additionally, an economic assessment of the potential mobile communication market in Europe is provided.

Payloads development for European land mobile satellites: A technical and economical assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrotta, G.; Rispoli, F.; Sassorossi, T.; Spazio, Selenia

The European Space Agency (ESA) has defined two payloads for Mobile Communication; one payload is for pre-operational use, the European Land Mobile System (EMS), and one payload is for promoting the development of technologies for future mobile communication systems, the L-band Land Mobile Payload (LLM). A summary of the two payloads and a description of their capabilities is provided. Additionally, an economic assessment of the potential mobile communication market in Europe is provided.

A Flexible Socioeconomic Scenarios Framework for the Study of Plausible Arctic Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reissell, A. K.; Peters, G. P.; Riahi, K.; Kroglund, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Nilsson, A. E.; Preston, B. L.; van Ruijven, B. J.

2016-12-01

Future developments of the Arctic region are associated with different drivers of change - climate, environmental, and socio-economic - and their interactions, and are highly uncertain. The uncertainty poses challenges for decision-making, calling for development of new analytical frameworks. Scenarios - coherent narratives describing potential futures, pathways to futures, and drivers of change along the way - can be used to explore the consequences of the key uncertainties, particularly in the long-term. In a participatory scenarios workshop, we used both top-down and bottom-up approaches for the development of a flexible socioeconomic scenarios framework. The top-down approach was linked to the global Integrated Assessment Modeling framework and its Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), developing an Arctic extension of the set of five storylines on the main socioeconomic uncertainties in global climate change research. The bottom-up approach included participatory development of narratives originating from within the Arctic region. For extension of global SSPs to the regional level, we compared the key elements in the global SSPs (Population, Human Development, Economy & Lifestyle, Policies & Institutions, Technology, and Environment & Natural Resources) and key elements in the Arctic. Additional key elements for the Arctic scenarios include, for example, seasonal migration, the large role of traditional knowledge and culture, mixed economy, nested governance structure, human and environmental security, quality of infrastructure. The bottom-up derived results suggested that the scenarios developed independent of the SSPs could be mapped back to the SSPs to demonstrate consistency with respect to representing similar boundary conditions. The two approaches are complimentary, as the top-down approach can be used to set the global socio-economic and climate boundary conditions, and the bottom-up approach providing the regional context. One key uncertainty and driving force is the demand for resources (global or regional) that was mapped against the role of governance as well as adaptive and transformative capacity among actors within the Arctic. Resources demand has significant influence on the society, culture, economy and environment of the Arctic.

A Policy of Options

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fri, Robert W.

1975-01-01

The Energy Research and Development Administration's program to deal with the relationship of energy and the environment is examined. Alternatives include the development of new energy sources that offer a viable choice for the future for economically feasible and environmentally acceptable technologies. (BT)

Developing sustainable transportation performance measures for TXDOT's strategic plan : technical report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-01

For this research project, sustainable transportation can be viewed as the provision of safe, effective, and : efficient access and mobility into the future while considering economic, social, and environmental needs. : This project developed a perfo...

Projected land use changes impacts on water yields in the karst mountain areas of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Yanqing; Song, Wei; Deng, Xiangzheng

2018-04-01

Human-induced land use changes over short time scales have significant impacts on water yield, especially in China because of the rapid social economic development. As the biggest developing country of the world, China's economy is expected to continuously grow with a high speed in the next few decades. Therefore, what kind of land use changes will occur in the future in China? How these changes will influence the water yields? To address this issue, we assessed the water yields in the karst mountain area of China during the periods of 1990-2010 and 2010-2030 by coupling an Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and a Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model. Three different land use scenarios i.e. natural growth, economic development, and ecological protection, were developed in 2030 using the CLUE model. It was concluded that, given land use changes between 1990 and 2010, total water yields in the karst mountain area are characterized by a trend towards fluctuating reduction. However, total water yields of 2030 in the economic development scenario revealed an increase of 1.25% compared to the actual water yields in 2010. The economy development in karst mountain areas of China in the future has a slight positive influence on water yields.

Quantifying an Integral Ecology Framework: A Case Study of the Riverina, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, Sarah A.; Haensch, Juliane; Edwards, Jane; Schirmer, Jackie; Zuo, Alec

2018-02-01

Communities in Australia's Murray-Darling Basin face the challenge of trying to achieve social, economic, and environmental sustainability; but experience entrenched conflict about the best way to achieve a sustainable future, especially for small rural communities. Integral ecology is a philosophical concept that seeks to address community, economic, social, and environmental sustainability simultaneously. Its inclusive processes are designed to reduce stakeholder conflict. However, to date the application of the integral ecology concept has been largely qualitative in nature. This study developed a quantitative integral ecology framework, and applied this framework to a case study of the Riverina, in the Murray-Darling Basin. Seventy-seven community-focused initiatives were assessed, ranked, and quantified. The majority of the community-focused ranked initiatives did not exhibit all aspects of integral ecology. Initiatives typically prioritized either (1) economic and community development or (2) environmental health; rarely both together. The integral ecology framework developed here enables recommendations on future community initiatives and may provide a pathway for community leaders and other policy-makers to more readily apply integral ecology objectives. Further research refining the framework's operationalization, application and implementation to a wider-scale may enhance communities' capacity to develop and grow sustainably.

An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kneafsey, J. T.; Hill, R. M.

1978-01-01

A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

Information Technology Research: Investing in Our Future. Report to the President.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Coordination Office for Information Technology Research and Development, Arlington, VA.

This is the final report on future directions for Federal support of research and development (R&D) for information technology. This report adds detail to the findings and recommendations in the interim report dated August 1998, and strengthens previous recommendations regarding the importance of social and economic research on the impacts of…

Current and Future Effects of Mexican Immigration in California. Executive Summary. R-3365/1-CR.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarthy, Kevin F.; Valdez, R. Burciaga

This study to assess the current situation of Mexican immigrants in California and project future possibilities constructs a demographic profile of the immigrants, examines their economic effects on the state, and describes their socioeconomic integration into California society. Models of immigration/integration processes are developed and used…

The Economics of MOOCs and Their Interrelationship to Competitiveness and Cohesiveness: The Case of Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

BenDavid-Hadar, Iris

2015-01-01

Higher education contributes to state competitiveness via human capital development that provides future returns to the economy through increases in labour productivity. Additionally, higher education is an infrastructure for future state-level social cohesiveness. Those countries where the education system produces more equitable outcomes are…

Alternative futures for Borneo show the value of integrating economic and conservation targets across borders

PubMed Central

Runting, Rebecca K.; Meijaard, Erik; Abram, Nicola K.; Wells, Jessie A.; Gaveau, David L.A.; Ancrenaz, Marc; Posssingham, Hugh P.; Wich, Serge A.; Ardiansyah, Fitrian; Gumal, Melvin T.; Ambu, Laurentius N.; Wilson, Kerrie A.

2015-01-01

Balancing economic development with international commitments to protect biodiversity is a global challenge. Achieving this balance requires an understanding of the possible consequences of alternative future scenarios for a range of stakeholders. We employ an integrated economic and environmental planning approach to evaluate four alternative futures for the mega-diverse island of Borneo. We show what could be achieved if the three national jurisdictions of Borneo coordinate efforts to achieve their public policy targets and allow a partial reallocation of planned land uses. We reveal the potential for Borneo to simultaneously retain ∼50% of its land as forests, protect adequate habitat for the Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) and Bornean elephant (Elephas maximus borneensis), and achieve an opportunity cost saving of over US$43 billion. Such coordination would depend on enhanced information sharing and reforms to land-use planning, which could be supported by the increasingly international nature of economies and conservation efforts. PMID:25871635

Political model of social evolution

PubMed Central

Acemoglu, Daron; Egorov, Georgy; Sonin, Konstantin

2011-01-01

Almost all democratic societies evolved socially and politically out of authoritarian and nondemocratic regimes. These changes not only altered the allocation of economic resources in society but also the structure of political power. In this paper, we develop a framework for studying the dynamics of political and social change. The society consists of agents that care about current and future social arrangements and economic allocations; allocation of political power determines who has the capacity to implement changes in economic allocations and future allocations of power. The set of available social rules and allocations at any point in time is stochastic. We show that political and social change may happen without any stochastic shocks or as a result of a shock destabilizing an otherwise stable social arrangement. Crucially, the process of social change is contingent (and history-dependent): the timing and sequence of stochastic events determine the long-run equilibrium social arrangements. For example, the extent of democratization may depend on how early uncertainty about the set of feasible reforms in the future is resolved. PMID:22198760

Political model of social evolution.

PubMed

Acemoglu, Daron; Egorov, Georgy; Sonin, Konstantin

2011-12-27

Almost all democratic societies evolved socially and politically out of authoritarian and nondemocratic regimes. These changes not only altered the allocation of economic resources in society but also the structure of political power. In this paper, we develop a framework for studying the dynamics of political and social change. The society consists of agents that care about current and future social arrangements and economic allocations; allocation of political power determines who has the capacity to implement changes in economic allocations and future allocations of power. The set of available social rules and allocations at any point in time is stochastic. We show that political and social change may happen without any stochastic shocks or as a result of a shock destabilizing an otherwise stable social arrangement. Crucially, the process of social change is contingent (and history-dependent): the timing and sequence of stochastic events determine the long-run equilibrium social arrangements. For example, the extent of democratization may depend on how early uncertainty about the set of feasible reforms in the future is resolved.

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ayati, M. B.; Liu, C. Y.; English, J. M.

1981-01-01

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption.

Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

2016-04-01

Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing agricultural water demand significantly affect downstream water availability. Water demand options demonstrate potential to improve environmental flow conditions and satisfy legal water supply requirements for downstream riparian states. On the other hand, currently planned large scale infrastructural projects demonstrate reduced value in certain scenarios, illustrating the impacts of lock-in effects of large scale infrastructure. From a methodological perspective, we find that while the stakeholder-driven approach revealed robust options in a resource-light manner and helped initiate much needed interaction amongst stakeholders, the modelling approach provides complementary quantitative information. The study reveals robust adaptation options for this important basin and provides a strong methodological basis for carrying out future studies that support adaptation decision making.

Launch Vehicle Assessment for Space Solar Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olds, John R.

1998-01-01

A recently completed study at Georgia Tech examined various launch vehicle options for deploying a future constellation of Space Solar Power satellites of the Suntower configuration. One of the motivations of the study was to determine whether the aggressive $400/kg launch price goal established for SSP package delivery would result in an attractive economic scenario for a future RLV developer. That is, would the potential revenue and traffic to be derived from a large scale SSP project be enough of an economic "carrot" to attract an RLV company into developing a new, low cost launch vehicle to address this market. Preliminary results presented in the attached charts show that there is enough economic reward for RLV developers, specifically in the case of the latest large GEO-based Suntower constellations (over 15,500 MT per year delivery for 30 years). For that SSP model, internal rates of return for the 30 year economic scenario exceed 22%. However, up-front government assistance to the RLV developer in terms of ground facilities, operations technologies, guaranteed low-interest rate loans, and partial offsets of some vehicle development expenses is necessary to achieve these positive results. This white paper is meant to serve as a companion to the data supplied in the accompanying charts. It's purpose is to provide more detail on the vehicles and design processes used, to highlight key decisions and issues, and to emphasize key results from each phase of the Georgia Tech study.

Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macomber, H. L.

1986-01-01

An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

SUSTAINABILITY: ECOLOGICAL, SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, TECHNOLOGICAL, AND SYSTEMS ASPECTS

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainability is generally associated with a definition by the World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987: "? development that ?meets the needs and aspirations of the present without compromising the ability to meet those of the future' ?" However, a mathematical theo...

SUSTAINABILITY: ECOLOGICAL, SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, TECHNOLOGICAL, AND SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVES

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainability is generally associated with a definition by the World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987: "Development that meets the needs and aspirations of the present without compromising the ability to meet those of the future". However, a mathematical theory e...

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

PubMed

Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

2016-01-01

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

1991-01-01

The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts in Oregon Coastal Counties from Two Future Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jimenez, Tony; Keyser, David; Tegen, Suzanne

This analysis examines the employment and potential economic impacts of large-scale deployment of offshore wind technology off the coast of Oregon. This analysis examines impacts within the seven Oregon coastal counties: Clatsop, Tillamook, Lincoln, Lane, Douglas, Coos, and Curry. The impacts highlighted here can be used in county, state, and regional planning discussions and can be scaled to get a general sense of the economic development opportunities associated with other deployment scenarios.

Scanning Our Future. A Report from the NGO Forum on the World Economic Order in Support of the Seventh Special Session of the UN General Assembly on Development and International Economic Cooperation (September 1-12, 1975).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Archer, Angus, Ed.

This report of the Seventh Special Session at the Conference of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) presents an account of the Forum on World Economic Order. Its purpose is to gain public awareness of the issues debated. The core of this report is the unique exchange of over 50 opinions which provide a compendium of ideas and judgments in the…

The Future of Allied Air Power: The United States Air Force

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

balanced against the internal problems China is facing with a slowing economy and attempts to develop a more sustainable economic model . Indeed, some...US support might not be as close as local allies might hope. In the context of a Chinese regime under pressure at home because its economic miracle is...which the US takes the Pacific ‘rebalance’. In its absence, and with a multitude of political, economic , and military levers the Chinese can pull to

Regional Economic Integration in the Developing World: Historical Trends at the Future Viability

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-01-01

elements of these previous integration experiences is essential , as it aids in assessing the future effectiveness of current developing country integration...assessed in order to elements of these previous integration see whether they have avoided the experiences is essential , as it aids in problems that...promote was felt that the inefficiency would only be industries that were more technologically temporary. What was essential was that based, especially

From Hobbes to Friedman: Development of the Free Market Economics of Education. AFT Research Notes, Number 28.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marginson, Simon

The free market human capital discourse and its associated material practices now play a significant role in education. This discourse assumes that education is an economic site in which individuals invest in the acquisition of qualifications in order to maximize their future earning power. It demands the full privatization and deregulation of…

Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development. 2010/11-2012/13 Service Plan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development, 2010

2010-01-01

British Columbia is facing challenging economic times. Indeed, the province is managing the effects of an economic recession that has been truly global in nature. In times like these, it becomes even more important to draw on the core strengths of the province and clearly recognize that the opportunities for everyone's future lie in the innovative…

Uncertainties remain in EEC energy policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Traill, S.

1979-06-01

Unless the European Economic Community (EEC) reduces oil imports, the future economic outlook seems very bleak. While recognizing this, members of the Common Market have failed to reach agreement on a common energy policy and have left it to the oil companies to reduce consumption by 5%. Meanwhile, funding continues for EEC research and development programs and planning continues for international cooperation.

Economic and societal dimensions of nanotechnology-enabled drug delivery.

PubMed

te Kulve, Haico; Rip, Arie

2013-05-01

There is an increasing interest in nanotechnology-enabled drug delivery systems which are expected to have significant impacts for health care. The economic and societal aspects are uncertain, even ambiguous, at this stage of development, and often not addressed, or only as part of the promises about present options. In our review we will report on assessments of actors regarding economic and societal aspects and, occasionally, of expected impacts. Topics discussed include: present and future markets of nano-enabled drug delivery, industry dynamics, regulation, cost-effectiveness, and broader ethical issues. We also include a brief discussion of anticipatory activities of actors who are concerned about these aspects. Performance of nano-enabled drug delivery, a necessary step to have future impacts at all, needs to be improved further, and in interaction with demands of users along the product value chain and with further stakeholder such as regulatory agencies and health insurers. When supported by analysis of societal embedding of new products and scenarios, this allows relevant societal and economic aspects to be taken into account at an early stage. A key issue in realizing impacts will be liability, and roles and responsibilities of technology developers and stakeholders more generally.

Information, knowledge and the future of machines.

PubMed

MacFarlane, Alistair G J

2003-08-15

This wide-ranging survey considers the future of machines in terms of information, complexity and the growth of knowledge shared amongst agents. Mechanical and human agents are compared and contrasted, and it is argued that, for the foreseeable future, their roles will be complementary. The future development of machines is examined in terms of unions of human and machine agency evolving as part of economic activity. Limits to, and threats posed by, the continuing evolution of such a society of agency are considered.

Pan-European household and industrial water demand: regional relevant estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; de Roo, Ad

2016-04-01

Sustainable water management is of high importance to provide adequate quality and quantity of water to European households, industries and agriculture. Especially since demographic, economic and climate changes are expected to increase competition for water between these sectors in the future. A shortage of water implies a reduction in welfare of households or damage to economic sectors. This socio-economic component should be incorporated into the decision-making process when developing water allocation schemes, requiring detailed water use information and cost/benefit functions. We now present the results of our study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water demand and cost-benefit estimations for the household and industry sector. We gathered consistent data on water consumption, water prices and other relevant variables at the highest spatial detail available from national statistical offices and other organizational bodies. This database provides the most detailed up to date picture of present water use and water prices across Europe. The use of homogeneous data allowed us to compare regions and analyze spatial patterns. We applied econometric methods to determine the main determinants of water demand and make a monetary valuation of water for both the domestic and industry sector. This monetary valuation is important to allow water allocation based on economic damage estimates. We also attempted to estimate how population growth, as well as socio-economic and climatic changes impact future water demand up to 2050 using a homogeneous method for all countries. European projections for the identified major drivers of water demand were used to simulate future conditions. Subsequently, water demand functions were applied to estimate future water use and potential economic damage caused by water shortages. We present our results while also providing some estimation of the uncertainty of our predictions.

The effect of economic development on population health: a review of the empirical evidence.

PubMed

Lange, Simon; Vollmer, Sebastian

2017-01-01

Economic growth is considered an important determinant of population health. Relevant studies investigating the effect of economic growth on health outcomes were identified from Google Scholar and PubMed searches in economics and medical journals. Additional resources generated through economic growth are potentially useful for improving population health. The empirical evidence on the aggregate effect of economic growth on population health is rather mixed and inconclusive. The causal pathways from economic growth to population health are crucial and failure or success in completing the pathways explains differences in empirical findings. Future research should investigate how additional resources can more effectively reach those in need and how additional resources can be used more efficiently. It is particularly relevant to understand why preventive health care in developing countries is very price elastic whereas curative health care is very health inelastic and how this understanding can inform public health policy. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

[Population and development].

PubMed

Castanon Romo, R; Sandoval Navarrete, J

1996-01-01

This broad survey of the debate concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development discusses the history and current status of world population growth, summarizes several influential theoretical positions on the topic, and proposes that redefinition of women's social role is indispensable if worldwide control of population growth is to be achieved. The introductory section discusses the acceleration of population growth in the second half of the 20th century and the increasing concentration of growth in the poor and developing countries. The positions of those who see in population control a means of promoting economic development and political stability are contrasted to the positions of those who believe that a large and growing population is the key to achieving economic and political progress. The international community, facing great uncertainty about the size, distribution, and well-being of the future world population, is increasingly concerned about the effect of growing numbers on the environment and natural resources. The second section summarizes the works of Malthus, Julian Simon, and the Club of Rome, and analyzes the propositions of demographic transition theory. The conclusion notes that despite uncertainty about the future of world population, development, and health, most of the poorest countries have become aware of the desirability of slowing population growth. A broad redefinition of the social role of women will inevitably accompany the worldwide demographic transition.

Sustaining Jamaica's forests: The protected areas resource conservation project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berke, Philip R.; Beatley, Timothy

1995-07-01

This study examines Jamaica's attempt to protect a tropical forest reserve. The biophysical setting, and the types and magnitude of forest development pressures are reviewed. Next, Jamaica's approach to developing new land-use strategies and compatible environmental protection and economic development programs are examined. Finally, the practical and theoretical implications by which institutions can be designed to encourage planning for sustainable development are reviewed. The implications suggest how to provide an appropriate mix of cooperation and market competition, by which people acting in their own interests accomplish socially equitable economic development, while protecting the environment for the benefit of future generations. The experience illustrates that effective long-term protection of natural areas requires the building of local relationships and support, the development of local economic activities supportive of conservation, the defining of clear boundaries, and significant monitoring and enforcement. Long-term protection of the Blue and John Crow mountains, and other important natural areas of Jamaica, will also require the development of a workable and enforceable system of land-use planning for the island, and adjustments to the economic incentive structure so that sustainable, nonextractive uses of natural capital are placed on equal footing with other economic uses (e.g., coffee production).

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to climate change.

Solar thermal upper stage: Economic advantage and development status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, Alan M.

1995-01-01

A solar thermal upper stage (STUS) is envisioned as a propulsive concept for the future. The STUS will be used for low Earth orbit (LEO) to geostationary-Earth orbit (GEO) transfer and for planetary exploration missions. The STUS offers significant performance gains over conventional chemical propulsion systems. These performance gains translate into a more economical, more efficient method of placing useful payloads in space and maximizing the benefits derived from space activity. This paper will discuss the economical advantages of an STUS compared to conventional chemical propulsion systems, the potential market for an STUS, and the recent activity in the development of an STUS. The results of this assessment combined with the performance gains, will provide a strong justification for the development of an STUS.

Domestic and world trends affecting the future of aviation (1980 - 2000), appendix C

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The results are presented of a study of variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological, and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis a series of scenarios is developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A scenario is presented which represents the manner in which events will most probably develop and their effect on the aviation industry.

Neoliberalism and Justice in Education for Sustainable Development: A Call for Inclusive Pluralism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kopnina, Helen; Cherniak, Brett

2016-01-01

Commonly conceived, sustainable development is concerned with social and economic equity and maintenance of ecological stability for future generations. The Brundtland Report addresses the ethical principles of intragenerational and intergenerational equity as fundamental pillars of sustainable development. This equity is often defined in economic…

Strategic Planning for Economic Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groff, Warren H.

The Ohio Task Force on High Technology (TFHT) was formed in 1982 to make recommendations in four areas: (1) the development of future scenarios for Ohio; (2) human resource development of providers and consumers of postsecondary educational services; (3) equipment and capital plan expenditures; and (4) implications of high technology for academic…

N.J.'s Community College Compact: A Strategic Blueprint for Workforce Development Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nespoli, Lawrence A.; Lam, Linda; Farbman, Jacob

2004-01-01

Workforce development is the key to future economic growth. Community colleges stand ready to play the key role in workforce development programs across the country. For community college leaders, the connection between their colleges and workforce development is obvious. Community college leaders understand, for example, that community college…

Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries

PubMed Central

Garcia, Serge M.; Grainger, Richard J. R.

2005-01-01

Predicting global fisheries is a high-order challenge but predictions have been made and updates are needed. Past forecasts, present trends and perspectives of key parameters of the fisheries—including potential harvest, state of stocks, supply and demand, trade, fishing technology and governance—are reviewed in detail, as the basis for new forecasts and forecasting performance assessment. The future of marine capture fisheries will be conditioned by the political, social and economic evolution of the world within which they operate. Consequently, recent global scenarios for the future world are reviewed, with the emphasis on fisheries. The main driving forces (e.g. global economic development, demography, environment, public awareness, information technology, energy, ethics) including aquaculture are described. Outlooks are provided for each aspect of the fishery sector. The conclusion puts these elements in perspective and offers the authors’ personal interpretation of the possible future pathway of fisheries, the uncertainty about it and the still unanswered questions of direct relevance in shaping that future. PMID:15713587

Kids' Share: An Analysis of Federal Expenditures on Children through 2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Isaacs, Julia B.; Vericker, Tracy; Macomber, Jennifer; Kent, Adam

2009-01-01

To advance the economic and social health of the country, the federal government directs resources to children--the country's future workers, parents, and voters. This helps ensure the well-being of children and helps them develop their potential and future contributions to our common welfare. Federal resources are used to promote the health and…

Building Futures Scenarios for Universities and Higher Education: An International Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vincent-Lancrin, Stephan

2004-01-01

The article presents a set of scenarios for universities and higher education in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) area. The first section gives a brief overview of the main forces currently at play in higher education in OECD countries, setting the context in which speculation about the future takes place. The…

TELECOM 2000: An Exploration of the Long-Term Development of Telecommunications in Australia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Australian Telecommunications Commission, Melbourne.

This document is intended as a guide to directions in Australia's social, economic, and technical future as related to likely trends in the demand for telecommunication facilities in the early Twenty-First Century. From this exploration of the future of telecommunications, nine policy recommendations were made to guide telecommunication research,…

Science Motivation across Asian Countries: Links among Future-Oriented Motivation, Self-Efficacy, Task Values, and Achievement Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Yuwen

2015-01-01

The relationships among future-oriented motivation, self-efficacy, task values of science, and achievement outcomes were investigated among 15-year-olds across four Asian nations who participated in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The factor structure of…

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transporation systems. Volume 1: Summary report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Technical, economic, environmental, and sociopolitical issues associated with future intercity transportation system options were assured. Technology assessment was used as a tool to assist in the identification of basic research and technology development tasks that should be undertaken. The emphasis was on domestic passenger transportation, but interfaces with freight and international transportation were considered.

Educating for the Future in Family Life. Information Series No. 228.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simpson, Elizabeth J.

This paper utilizes knowledge gained from work on future issues related to families, the work of futurists on social trends and technological development, and recent studies in home economics to draw conclusions regarding what people will need to know in the 1980s and beyond to be intelligent consumers and effective homemakers. The first of six…

A Survey of Current and Future Perceived Multi-National Corporation Manufacturing Training Needs in Tianjin, (T.E.D.A.) China.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hickey, Will

2001-01-01

Describes a study that surveyed current and perceived future employer-provided training practices among multinational corporations manufacturing companies in the Tianjin Economic Development Area (T.E.D.A.) of China. Highlights include labor market; human resources management in China; workforce productivity; and return on investment. (Author/LRW)

Future Battles and the Development of Military Concepts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-22

Land Battle concept dating from the Cold War era. The author maintains tliat such an approach is tied to old ways of thinking; the world has changed...the current world economic and social state, along with anticipated future flash points around the globe; a new military operational concept titled...project power, let alone rival U.S. dominance on the high seas. An alternate and more plausible future is a world that will require frequent

Ex-Ante Economic Impact Assessment of Genetically Modified Banana Resistant to Xanthomonas Wilt in the Great Lakes Region of Africa

PubMed Central

Ainembabazi, John Herbert; Tripathi, Leena; Rusike, Joseph; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Manyong, Victor

2015-01-01

Background Credible empirical evidence is scanty on the social implications of genetically modified (GM) crops in Africa, especially on vegetatively propagated crops. Little is known about the future success of introducing GM technologies into staple crops such as bananas, which are widely produced and consumed in the Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLA). GM banana has a potential to control the destructive banana Xanthomonas wilt disease. Objective To gain a better understanding of future adoption and consumption of GM banana in the GLA countries which are yet to permit the production of GM crops; specifically, to evaluate the potential economic impacts of GM cultivars resistant to banana Xanthomonas wilt disease. Data Sources The paper uses data collected from farmers, traders, agricultural extension agents and key informants in the GLA. Analysis We analyze the perceptions of the respondents about the adoption and consumption of GM crop. Economic surplus model is used to determine future economic benefits and costs of producing GM banana. Results On the release of GM banana for commercialization, the expected initial adoption rate ranges from 21 to 70%, while the ceiling adoption rate is up to 100%. Investment in the development of GM banana is economically viable. However, aggregate benefits vary substantially across the target countries ranging from US$ 20 million to 953 million, highest in countries where disease incidence and production losses are high, ranging from 51 to 83% of production. Conclusion The findings support investment in the development of GM banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt disease. The main beneficiaries of this technology development are farmers and consumers, although the latter benefit more than the former from reduced prices. Designing a participatory breeding program involving farmers and consumers signifies the successful adoption and consumption of GM banana in the target countries. PMID:26414379

Technical and Economical Demands on 25K - 77K Refrigerators for Future HTS — Series Products in Power Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromoll, B.

2004-06-01

For the future high temperature superconductivity, HTS, series products new refrigerators are essential. Demands are made on these which are only partly fulfilled by refrigerators available in the market today. This refers to cooling power, initial cost and in particular reliability. Without proper refrigeration techniques it will be almost impossible to bring HTS products to the market. Based on the experiences made by the construction and operation of HTS prototypes within our company, like the 400 kW motor, 1.2 MVA current limiter and 1 MVA traction-transformer provided with refrigerators which are available in the market today, criteria have been established to identify the future technical and economical requirements. These criteria apply to efficiency, maintainability, operation flexibility, feasibility of integration and performance/cost ratio. For the temperature range of 20 K to 77 K cooling with Gifford-McMahon, Pulse Tube, Stirling and Mixture-Cascade refrigerators are applicable. The development potential of these processes are compared for the different applications in future series products. Presented are the necessary steps towards reliable and economic refrigerators from the viewpoint of an equipment manufacturer. These are essential for a market entry in the year 2008.

Improving early cycle economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies.

PubMed

Steuten, Lotte M G; Ramsey, Scott D

2014-08-01

The rapidly increasing range and expense of new diagnostics, compels consideration of a different, more proactive approach to health economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies. Early cycle economic evaluation is a decision analytic approach to evaluate technologies in development so as to increase the return on investment as well as patient and societal impact. This paper describes examples of 'early cycle economic evaluations' as applied to diagnostic technologies and highlights challenges in its real-time application. It shows that especially in the field of diagnostics, with rapid technological developments and a changing regulatory climate, early cycle economic evaluation can have a guiding role to improve the efficiency of the diagnostics innovation process. In the next five years the attention will move beyond the methodological and analytic challenges of early cycle economic evaluation towards the challenge of effectively applying it to improve diagnostic research and development and patient value. Future work in this area should therefore be 'strong on principles and soft on metrics', that is, the metrics that resonate most clearly with the various decision makers in this field.

25 CFR 170.400 - What is the purpose of transportation planning?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... RESERVATION ROADS PROGRAM Planning, Design, and Construction of Indian Reservation Roads Program Facilities... address current and future land use, economic development, traffic demand, public safety, health, and...

The fiscal outcome of artificial conception in Brazil--creating citizens in developing countries.

PubMed

Kröger, G B; Ejzenberg, D

2012-01-01

Infertility is an important health issue, but only a small fraction of the affected population receives treatment in Brazil, because it is not covered by the government or private health insurance plans. We developed a generational accounting-based mathematical model to assess the direct economic result of creating a citizen through IVF in different economic scenarios, and the potential economic benefit generated by the individual and his/her future offspring. A mathematical model analyzes the revenues and expenses of an IVF-conceived individual over his lifetime. We calculated the net present value (NPV) of an IVF-conceived citizen, and this value corresponds to the fiscal contribution to the government by an individual, from birth through his predicted life expectancy. The calculation used discount rates of 4.0 and 7.0% to depreciate the money value by time. A 4.0% discount rate represents the most favorable economic scenario in Brazil, and it results in an NPV of US$ 61 428. A 7.0% discount rate represents a less favorable economic reality, and it results in a debit of U$ 563, but this debt may be compensated by his/her future offspring. The fiscal contribution generated by each IVF-conceived citizen can justify an initial government investment in infertility treatment. Poor economic times in Brazil can sometimes result in a fiscal debt from each new IVF-conceived child, but this initial expenditure may be compensated by the fiscal contribution in the next generation.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

PubMed

Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

On the Economics of Space Colonisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, D. J.

An economic model of the future colonisation of Mars is developed, which, for simplicity, is assumed to be a one-off transplantation of capital and population to Mars. The model demonstrates that compound growth of output and population, and diminishing natural resources on Earth eventually create sufficiently intense economic pressures that the colonisation of Mars (and by implication of space generally) confers a net economic benefit on humanity. The model illustrates that the colonisation of space is likely to occur because economic forces will ultimately compel it to occur. The model is highly counter-intuitive because it has traditionally been believed by many that the colonisation of space could only be done at a net economic cost to humanity and would not result in a net economic benefit to mankind.

Results of the Advanced Space Structures Technology Research Experiments (ASTREX) hardware and control development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cossey, Derek F.

1993-01-01

Future DOD, NASA, and SDI space systems will be larger than any spacecraft flown before. The economics of placing these Precision Space Systems (PSS) into orbit dictates that they be as low in mass as possible. This stringent weight reduction creates structural flexibility causing severe technical problems when combined with the precise shape and pointing requirements associated with many future PSS missions. Development of new Control Structure Interaction (CSI) technologies which can solve these problems and enable future space missions is being conducted at the Phillips Laboratory, On-Location Site, CA.

USSR Report, Science and Technology Policy.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-01-21

prerequisites for the effective application of mathematical economic methods and computer hardware for the predesigning forecasting of future generations of...M.I. Belkin, I. G. Bogorodskiy, et al.; EKONOMIKA I MATEMATICHESRTYE METODY, No 3, 1986) 1 Development of Mathematic Economics Instrumentarium at...ensuring the effectiveness of the automated elaboration of plans, it is essential, in the first place, to improve the skills of the planning specialists

The Emergent Knowledge Society and the Future of Higher Education: Asian Perspectives. Comparative Development and Policy in Asia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neubauer, Deane E., Ed.

2011-01-01

The nature of higher education is by no means fixed: it has evolved over time; different models of higher education co-exist alongside each other at present; and, worldwide, there are demands for higher education to change to better help support economic growth and to better fit changing social and economic circumstances. This book examines, from…

Process and utility water requirements for cellulosic ethanol production processes via fermentation pathway

EPA Science Inventory

The increasing need of additional water resources for energy production is a growing concern for future economic development. In technology development for ethanol production from cellulosic feedstocks, a detailed assessment of the quantity and quality of water required, and the ...

Long-term Strategic Planning for a Resilient Metro Colombo: An Economic Case for Wetland Conservation and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozenberg, J.

2015-12-01

Colombo faces recurrent floods that threaten its long-term economic development. Its urban wetlands have been identified by local agencies as a critical component of its flood reduction system, but they have declined rapidly in recent years due to continuous infilling, unmanaged land development and dredging to create lakes. In collaboration with government agencies, NGOs and local universities, the World Bank has carried out a Robust Decision Making analysis to examine the value of Colombo urban wetlands, both in the short-term and long-term, and identify what are the most viable strategies available to increase the city's flood resilience in an unclear future (in terms of climate change and patterns of urban development). This has involved the use of numerous hydrological and socio-economic scenarios as well as the evaluation of some wetlands benefits, like ecosystem services, wastewater treatment, or recreational services. The analysis has determined that if all urban wetlands across the Colombo catchment were lost, in some scenarios the metropolitan area would have to cope with an annual average flood loss of approximately 1% of Colombo GDP in the near future. For long-term strategies, trade-offs between urban development, lake creation and wetland conservation were analyzed and it was concluded that an active management of urban wetlands was the lowest regret option. Finally, the analysis also revealed that in the future, with climate change and fast urban development, wetlands will not be sufficient to protect Colombo against severe floods. Pro-active urban planning and land-use management are therefore necessary, both to protect existing wetlands and to reduce future exposure. The use of many different scenarios, the consideration of several policy options, and the open participatory process ensured policy-makers' buy-in and lead to the decision to actively protect urban wetlands in Colombo.

2017 Brownfields Federal Programs Guide

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document illustrates how the Brownfields Program does more than address environmental contamination—it recognizes a community’s quality of life aligning with economic development and sustainability, and looks to the future for revitalization.

Developing America's Shale Reserves - Water Strategies For A Sustainable Future (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shephard, L. E.; Oshikanlu, T.

2013-12-01

The development of shale oil and gas reserves over the last several years has had a significant impact on securing America's energy future while making substantial contributions to our nation's economic prosperity. These developments have also raised serious concerns about potential detrimental impacts to our environment (i.e., land, air and water) with much media attention focused on the impacts to our nation's fresh water supply. These concerns are being discussed across the nation often with little or no distinction that the nature of the water issues vary depending on local circumstances (e.g., depth of aquifer and reservoir zone, water demand and availability, availability of discharge wells, regulatory framework, etc.) and regional shale reservoir development strategies (depth of wells, length of laterals, fluid-type used for fracturing, etc.). Growing concerns over long standing drought conditions in some areas and competing demands for water from other sectors (e.g., agriculture, domestic, etc.) add even greater uncertainty relative to fresh water. Water demands for gas and oil wells vary from region to region but nominally range from 10 to 15 acre feet of water (4 to 6 million gallons) for drilling and hydraulic fracturing applications. Flowback water from the hydraulic fracturing process varies and can range from 5 to 40 % of the water used for drilling and 'fracing'. Produced water can be substantial, leading to significant volumes of 'disposed water' where injection wells are available. A science-based systems approach to water lifecycle management that incorporates leading-edge technology development and considers economic and social impacts is critical for the long-term sustainable development of shale reserves. Various water recycling and reuse technologies are being deployed within select regions across the nation with each having limited success depending on region. The efficacy of reuse technology will vary based on produced water quantity and quality, flow back rates and the associated economics. A significant contributor to the economics can be offsite transportation costs from hauling water to and from the drill site. While economics often drive decisions on technology and reuse, available water and infrastructure (water pipelines, injection wells, etc.) are also important contributors. In some regions effluent water (i.e., treated or untreated waste water) is playing an increasing role to reduce impacting 'fresh' water supplies for communities in regions where supply is limited and demand continues to increase. In many communities effluent water provides additional revenue to support infrastructure needs arising from accelerated population growth and economic expansion. The development strategy for shale reservoirs can be optimized to assure a sustainable future for water resources. A systems-based sustainable water strategy should be integrated into the regional reservoir development approach at the earliest possible stage with full consideration of the nature of regional water issues and reservoir development strategies impacting water demand and supply, available technology and potential social and economic impacts.

Planning for sustainable tourism in southern Pulau Banggi: an assessment of biophysical conditions and their implications for future tourism development.

PubMed

Teh, Lydia; Cabanban, Annadel S

2007-12-01

A priori assessments of a site's biophysical and socio-economic capacity for accommodating tourism are less common than tourism impact studies. A priori evaluations can provide a contextual understanding of ecological, economic and socio-cultural forces, which shape the prospects for sustainable tourism development at the host destination, and can avert adverse impacts of tourism. We conduct an a priori assessment of the biophysical environment of Pulau Banggi, in the Malaysian state of Sabah for sustainable tourism development. We characterise baseline conditions of the island's marine biodiversity, seasonality, and infrastructure. We then evaluate how existing biophysical conditions will influence options for sustainable tourism development. In particular, we suggest conditions, if there are any, which constitute a limit to future tourism development in terms of compatibility for recreation and resilience to visitor impacts. We find that the biggest constraint is the lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure. Blast fishing, although occurring less than once per hour, can potentially destroy the major attraction for tourists. We conclude that while Pulau Banggi possesses natural qualities that are attractive for ecotourism, financial and institutional support must be made available to provide facilities and services that will enable local participation in environmental protection and enhance prospects for future sustainable tourism.

An energy-economy-environment model for simulating the impacts of socioeconomic development on energy and environment.

PubMed

Wang, Wenyi; Zeng, Weihua; Yao, Bo

2014-01-01

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement.

You Don't Have to Be Poor to Be Indian: Readings in Resource Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gover, Maggie

This book contains discussions of many of the problems that tribal decision makers must face. It is intended to supply information that may be useful in making future development decisions and to suggest options for Indian control of Indian resource development. The book contains chapters on economic development and long range planning; parallels…

The human and economic cost of hidden hunger.

PubMed

Stein, Alexander J; Qaim, Matin

2007-06-01

Micronutrient malnutrition is a public health problem in many developing countries. Its negative impact on income growth is recognized in principle, but there are widely varying estimates of the related economic cost. To discuss available studies that quantify the cost of micronutrient malnutrition, and to develop an alternative framework and apply it to India. Detailed burden of disease calculations are used to estimate the economic cost of micronutrient malnutrition based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. The short-term economic cost of micronutrient malnutrition in India amounts to 0.8% to 2.5% of the gross domestic product. Although the results confirm that micronutrient malnutrition is a huge economic problem, the estimates are lower than those of most previous studies. The differences may be due to differences in underlying assumptions, quality of data, and precision of calculation, but also to dynamic interactions between nutrition, health, and economic productivity, which are difficult to capture. Clear explanation of all calculation details would be desirable for future studies in order to increase credibility and transparency.

Metabolizable protein supply alters pregnancy and subsequent retention rate during heifer development while grazing dormant winter forage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Type of heifer development system can have major impact on the future productivity and retention rate of the cowherd. Therefore, the objective of this experiment was to determine growth, reproductive performance, retention rate, and economic efficiency of heifer’s developed in a range raised (with ...

The Future Architects' Attitude towards Innovations in the Context of Sustainable Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Artemeva, Veronika

2014-01-01

The architectural innovations are becoming more and more important in the economic and social development and in the quality improvement of people's lives. Sometimes, however, the implementation of innovative projects can lead to negative consequences. The development of any innovation should be based on a comprehensive analysis of their…

75 FR 1568 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Proposed Designation of Critical Habitat for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-12

... designation. The majority of the total future baseline impacts are associated with development projects ($6.4... development projects. The DEA estimates that total potential incremental economic impacts in areas proposed as..., the range in total incremental impacts is due to the range in development forecasts. The lack of...

Brief report: do peer relationships matter to Vietnamese adolescents' and young adults' development of identity? Towards a working theory of identity development in a changing culture.

PubMed

Nguyen, Huong; Cohen, Edward; Hines, Alice

2012-12-01

In this paper, using data from the first nationally representative, cross-sectional survey of more than 7000 Vietnamese adolescents, we explore how peers, compared to family, matter to Vietnamese adolescents' development of their independent identity as an adult. We use future hopes and aspirations as proxies for identity development, arguing that an individual's development of future hopes and aspirations is a correlate to the emergence of an independent identity. Our analyses show that peers have a positive and consistent influence on adolescents' hopes to have a happy family, good job, good income, and opportunities to do what they want. Regarding career and economic aspirations, the importance of peer relationships appears to have dropped away. It may be that when youth consider their realistic economic alternatives, the role of peers that was important for identity development in adolescence gives way to pragmatism about the attainment of a career identity. Copyright © 2011 The Association for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. All rights reserved.

25 CFR 170.410 - What is the purpose of tribal long-range transportation planning?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... WATER INDIAN RESERVATION ROADS PROGRAM Planning, Design, and Construction of Indian Reservation Roads.... These strategies should address future land use, economic development, traffic demand, public safety...

Gambling on growth.

PubMed

Feeney, A

1990-01-01

When the assumption is made that economic growth must be increased by 10% to accommodate population increases and to reduce poverty, the question is raised as to whether or not sustainable development is possible. The human population increased 3 times since 1900, and global economic activity has increased 7 times faster than population. Use of fossil fuels has increased by 30 times, and industrial production has increased by 50 times. The by-products of population growth and economic activity are loss of tropical rainforests; species extinction; desertification in Africa, India, and the US; toxic and radioactive pollution; and greenhouse warming and ozone depletion. The atmosphere's stability and human habitation is threatened. Sustainable development, as defined by the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) in "Our Common Future," is meeting present needs but not at the expense of future needs. Economic growth must proceed at different rates in different countries to close the gap between the rich and poor. Economic expansion has been criticized by the president of Negative Population Growth and the Environmental Defense Fund's coordinator of reform for the World Bank's environmental policies and Third World countries. US government response during the Reagan administration has been indifference, while support has come from the World Resources Institute, the Worldwatch Institute, the US National Wildlife Federation, and the Population Reference Bureau. Recent support has come from signers of the "G-7 Summit" and from IBM and the Dow Chemical Company. A few shared tenets are 1) that economic development is not sustainable, 2) environmental reforms are necessary to make development sustainable, 3) a trade-off is needed to increase Third World energy use, and 4) population must be stabilized. Many proposals have been offered including reducing population to 2 billion, or 40% of the current level. Reducing poverty globally is an environmentally sound policy. High tariffs and protectionism, debt payments, and International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs have made the situation worse for the Third World. Many suggestions have been made to correct the poverty imbalance, including no growth or steady state economics.

A scenario framework to explore the future migration and adaptation in deltas: A multi-scale and participatory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebede, Abiy S.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hill, Chris T.; Hutton, Craig W.; Kay, Susan; Lawn, Jon; Lazar, Attila N.; Whitehead, Paul W.

2017-04-01

Coastal deltas are home for over 500 million people globally, and they have been identified as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments during the 21st century. They are susceptible to multiple climatic (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surges, change in temperature and precipitation) and socio-economic (e.g., human-induced subsidence, population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth) drivers of change. These drivers also operate at multiple scales, ranging from local to global and short- to long-term. This highlights the complex challenges deltas face in terms of both their long-term sustainability as well as the well-being of their residents and the health of ecosystems that support the livelihood of large (often very poor) population under uncertain changing conditions. A holistic understanding of these challenges and the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes is central for devising robust adaptation policies. Scenario analysis has long been identified as a strategic management tool to explore future climate change and its impacts for supporting robust decision-making under uncertainty. This work presents the overall scenario framework, methodology, and processes adopted for the development of scenarios in the DECCMA* project. DECCMA is analysing the future of three deltas in South Asia and West Africa: (i) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Volta delta (Ghana). This includes comparisons between these three deltas. Hence, the scenario framework comprises a multi-scale hybrid approach, with six levels of scenario considerations: (i) global (climate change, e.g., sea-level rise, temperature change; and socio-economic assumptions, e.g., population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth); (ii) regional catchments (e.g., river flow modelling), (iii) regional seas (e.g., fisheries modelling), (iv) regional politics (e.g., transboundary disputes), (v) national (e.g., socio-economic factors), and (vi) delta-scale (e.g., future adaptation and migration policies) scenarios. The framework includes and combines expert-based and participatory approaches and provides improved specification of the role of scenarios to analyse the future state of adaptation and migration across the three deltas. It facilitates the development of appropriate and consistent endogenous and exogenous scenario futures: (i) at the delta-scale, (ii) across all deltas, and (iii) with wider climate change, environmental change, and adaptation & migration research. Key words: Coastal deltas, sea-level rise, migration and adaptation, multi-scale scenarios, participatory approach *DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project is part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Growing America's Energy Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

The emerging U.S. bioenergy industry provides a secure and growing supply of transportation fuels, biopower, and bioproducts produced from a range of abundant, renewable biomass resources. Bioenergy can help ensure a secure, sustainable, and economically sound future by reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil, developing domestic clean energy sources, and generating domestic green jobs. Bioenergy can also help address growing concerns about climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to create a healthier environment for current and future generations.

The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Jason P.; Kay, Merlinde; Prasad, Abhnil; Pitman, Andy

2018-02-01

The Paris Agreement limits global average temperature rise to 2 °C and commits to pursuing efforts in limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This will require rapid reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases and the eventual decarbonisation of the global economy. Wind energy is an established technology to help achieve emissions reductions, with a cumulative global installed capacity of ~486 GW (2016). Focusing on Australia, we assess the future economic viability of wind energy using a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution regional climate simulations forced by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) output. We examine both near future (around 2030) and far future (around 2070) changes. Extractable wind power changes vary across the continent, though the most spatially coherent change is a small but significant decrease across southern regions. The cost of future wind energy generation, measured via the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE), increases negligibly in the future in regions with significant existing installed capacity. Technological developments in wind energy generation more than compensate for projected small reductions in wind, decreasing the LCOE by around 30%. These developments ensure viability for existing wind farms, and enhance the economic viability of proposed wind farms in Western Australian and Tasmania. Wind energy is therefore a resilient source of electricity over most of Australia and technological innovation entering the market will open new regions for energy production in the future.

Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts: a case study in Shanghai.

PubMed

Tian, Zhan; Cao, Guiying; Shi, Jun; McCallum, Ian; Cui, Linli; Fan, Dongli; Li, Xinhu

2012-06-01

The aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation. We examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data. The results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas.

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; Bosetti, V.; Borgonovo, E.; Capros, P.; Fricko, O.; Gernaat, D. E. H. J.; Guivarch, C.; Havlik, P.; Huppmann, D.; Johnson, N.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Keppo, I.; Krey, V.; Ó Broin, E.; Price, J.; van Vuuren, D. P.

2017-01-01

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.

Managing the water-energy-food nexus: Opportunities in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalilov, Shokhrukh-Mirzo; Amer, Saud A.; Ward, Frank A.

2018-02-01

This article examines impacts of infrastructure development and climate variability on economic outcomes for the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. It aims to identify the most economically productive mix of expanded reservoir storage for economic benefit sharing to occur, in which economic welfare of all riparians is improved. Policies examined include four combinations of storage infrastructure for each of two climate futures. An empirical optimization model is developed and applied to identify opportunities for improving the welfare of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. The analysis 1) characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns for these combinations of expanded reservoir storage capacity, 2) describes Pareto-Improving packages of expanded storage capacity that could raise economic welfare for all four riparians, and accounts for impacts for each of two climate scenarios. Results indicate that a combination of targeted water storage infrastructure and efficient water allocation could produce outcomes for which the discounted net present value of benefits are favorable for each riparian. Results identify a framework to provide economic motivation for all riparians to cooperate through development of water storage infrastructure. Our findings illustrate the principle that development of water infrastructure can expand the negotiation space by which all communities can gain economic benefits in the face of limited water supply. Still, despite our optimistic findings, patient and deliberate negotiation will be required to transform potential improvements into actual gains.

75 FR 37350 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Designation of Critical Habitat for Vermilion Darter

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-29

... with economic activities, including future development, road construction, wastewater treatment, stream... development, road construction, wastewater treatment, stream alteration, and water withdrawal. In order to... activities such as construction and maintenance activities; impoundments (five within the Turkey Creek and...

State Leadership in International Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morehouse, Ward

State education agencies are concerned with strengthening the international aspects of American education to make the educational experience of future generations more relevant to the realities of present and projected populations and economic conditions in both developed and less developed areas of the world. This document discusses the necessity…

The future of laboratory medicine - a 2014 perspective.

PubMed

Kricka, Larry J; Polsky, Tracey G; Park, Jason Y; Fortina, Paolo

2015-01-01

Predicting the future is a difficult task. Not surprisingly, there are many examples and assumptions that have proved to be wrong. This review surveys the many predictions, beginning in 1887, about the future of laboratory medicine and its sub-specialties such as clinical chemistry and molecular pathology. It provides a commentary on the accuracy of the predictions and offers opinions on emerging technologies, economic factors and social developments that may play a role in shaping the future of laboratory medicine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of management options in marine fisheries by qualitative modelling techniques.

PubMed

Eisenack, K; Kropp, J

2001-01-01

An effective management of the rapidly dwindling marine fish resources is of great ecological, economic and social importance for the future. An over-development of commercial fisheries has brought about a multitude of negative environmental impacts, such as an accelerated exploitation of stocks or a decrease of marine biodiversity, and furthermore, a profound structural change in fish industry. However, the main reason for the non-prosperous rationing of marine resources is the lack of knowledge about certain processes as well as the non-availability of adequate steering instruments. This paper addresses the lack of conceptualization in the case of uncertain knowledge. It proposes a model approach which can be used for weak but improved decision support under the premise of vague knowledge. The usage of qualitative differential equations illustrates general patterns of overcapitalization of fishing fleets. The extension of traditional model approaches by integration of additional socio-economic phenomena in this context supplies deeper insights in the dynamics of a coupled economic and ecological system. The approach provides a set of characteristic system behaviours which can be fruitfully used for the development of future management tasks.

Emerging Issues Commentary: Teaching Our K-1 Students and Ourselves about Sustainable Development as We Raise Questions to Develop a Nuanced Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molitor, Jessica; Ryall, Mickey; Kelter, Paul

2013-01-01

"Sustainable" development refers to development that meets our needs, while making it possible for future generations to meet their needs. Societal and personal choices will dictate if sustainable development will be possible, or, rather, if the environmental, economic and social impact of our continual lifestyle demands will lead to…

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptionsmore » about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.« less

Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D.

2016-01-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water-energy-climate nexus.

Modeling Global Water Use for the 21st Century: Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative and Its Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.;

Aquaculture: global status and trends

PubMed Central

Bostock, John; McAndrew, Brendan; Richards, Randolph; Jauncey, Kim; Telfer, Trevor; Lorenzen, Kai; Little, David; Ross, Lindsay; Handisyde, Neil; Gatward, Iain; Corner, Richard

2010-01-01

Aquaculture contributed 43 per cent of aquatic animal food for human consumption in 2007 (e.g. fish, crustaceans and molluscs, but excluding mammals, reptiles and aquatic plants) and is expected to grow further to meet the future demand. It is very diverse and, contrary to many perceptions, dominated by shellfish and herbivorous and omnivorous pond fish either entirely or partly utilizing natural productivity. The rapid growth in the production of carnivorous species such as salmon, shrimp and catfish has been driven by globalizing trade and favourable economics of larger scale intensive farming. Most aquaculture systems rely on low/uncosted environmental goods and services, so a critical issue for the future is whether these are brought into company accounts and the consequent effects this would have on production economics. Failing that, increased competition for natural resources will force governments to allocate strategically or leave the market to determine their use depending on activities that can extract the highest value. Further uncertainties include the impact of climate change, future fisheries supplies (for competition and feed supply), practical limits in terms of scale and in the economics of integration and the development and acceptability of new bio-engineering technologies. In the medium term, increased output is likely to require expansion in new environments, further intensification and efficiency gains for more sustainable and cost-effective production. The trend towards enhanced intensive systems with key monocultures remains strong and, at least for the foreseeable future, will be a significant contributor to future supplies. Dependence on external feeds (including fish), water and energy are key issues. Some new species will enter production and policies that support the reduction of resource footprints and improve integration could lead to new developments as well as reversing decline in some more traditional systems. PMID:20713392

Beyond NextGen: AutoMax Overview and Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopardekar, Parimal; Alexandrov, Natalia

2013-01-01

Main Message: National and Global Needs - Develop scalable airspace operations management system to accommodate increased mobility needs, emerging airspace uses, mix, future demand. Be affordable and economically viable. Sense of Urgency. Saturation (delays), emerging airspace uses, proactive development. Autonomy is Needed for Airspace Operations to Meet Future Needs. Costs, time critical decisions, mobility, scalability, limits of cognitive workload. AutoMax to Accommodate National and Global Needs. Auto: Automation, autonomy, autonomicity for airspace operations. Max: Maximizing performance of the National Airspace System. Interesting Challenges and Path Forward.

[Sustainable development of the three economic patterns in China: The application of genuine progress indicator in the sustainability assessment of six typical cities.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Huang, Lu; Yan, Li Jiao

2016-06-01

Three economic patterns, i.e., Zhujiang Model, Wenzhou Model and Sunan Model, were all generated in the developed areas of China. Sustainability assessment of those areas plays an important role in guiding future development of the economy of China. Genuine progress indicator (GPI) was adopted in this study to evaluate the sustainability of 6 typical cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wenzhou, Suzhou, Wuxi, and Changzhou) of the three economic patterns from 1995 to 2012. During the study period, the values of GDP for the six cities had experienced exponential growth, while the values of GPI started to increase since 2005 after a relatively constant period between 1995 and 2005. The gap between GPI and GDP had been widening from a historical perspective. Zhujiang Model made great progress in economic growth, however, the economic, social, and environmental costs were evident. It should tackle income inequality, traffic jam, and environmental pollution to reach sustainability. The development of Wenzhou Model slowed down in the late pe-riod, with inadequate potential to develop. Its income inequality was tough, social and economic development was slow, and the economic development pattern needed to be urgently changed. Sunan Model had a higher value of GPI and the potential to reach sustainability, with remarkable growth of economy, median level of the GPI costs, and steady improvement of social development, although its natural resources were depleted. Three economic patterns should focus on the three dimensions of sustainability (economy, environment, and society), and Zhujiang Model and Wenzhou Model needed to be more active to search for transition of their development.

The threat of human influenza: the viruses, disease impacts, and vaccine solutions.

PubMed

Yin, Jiehui Kevin; Salkeld, Glenn; Heron, Leon; Khandaker, Gulam; Rashid, Harunor; Booy, Robert

2014-01-01

Influenza is an acute respiratory illness that remains an important cause of excessive morbidity and mortality with substantial economic cost to the population. Influenza, being a virus that frequently mutates, is not amenable to elimination. Vaccination remains the most effective preventive measure. This review summarises the latest developments in the fields of biology and epidemiology relating to clinical and economic impacts of influenza disease, and vaccination. We suggest that future efforts should focus on developing safer, more effective, and cost-effective prophylactic vaccines for influenza.

Decision making guidelines for mining historic landfill sites in Flanders.

PubMed

Winterstetter, A; Wille, E; Nagels, P; Fellner, J

2018-04-20

This study aims at showing how the United Nations Framework Classification for Resources (UNFC) can help to classify potential landfill mining projects with different levels of maturity, from exploration to production, under technical, socio-economic and project-planning aspects. Taking the example of three former landfill sites in Flanders general decision making guidelines regarding the future management of old landfills are provided. Using the ECLAR methodology for the evaluation (E) and classification (CL) of anthropogenic resources (AR), the individual projects, where clean land and/or materials are recovered, are mapped under the three-dimensional UNFC system. The Bornem project, yields a negative Net Present Value (NPV) of -17 Mio € (-44 €/t of excavated waste), i.e. the project is currently not economically viable. In case of changing key parameters the landfill has, however, reasonable prospects for future economic extraction. The Turnhout land development turned out to be economically viable with a NPV of 361,000 € (8 €/t of excavated waste). The Zuienkerke remediation project is at a too early stage to determine its socioeconomic viability. The main focus to compare and prioritize potential landfill mining projects in Flanders should be on (1) site specific conditions (e.g. landfill's composition, land prices), (2) project related factors (e.g. remediation required vs. resource/land recovery, selected technologies and project set-ups, private vs. public evaluation perspective) and (3) the timing of mining, considering future development of costs, prices, laws, available data and information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Health care economic guidance in Germany from the example Morbi-RSA].

PubMed

Litmathe, Jens

2016-04-01

Increasing costs in health care represent still a major challenge in most industrial contries. A lot of attempts especially in Germany have been made to manage such problems and for a fair allocation oft he underlying resources. One of this ist the Morbi-RSA. The current review reflects all historical, medical and economical aspects of the Morbi-RSA and gives a perspective to possible future developments.

The Chinese Armed Forces in the 21st Century

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-12-01

economic 72 growth. Military vs . Economic Considerations. Without saying so, China recognizes that the real potential for trouble on the...only making a modest effort to exploit the RMA. "How to balance investment in the present vs . future was the fundamental contradition facing the U.S...zhuangjiabing wuqizhuangbei fazhan de huigu yu zhanwang" ("Research and Development of Armour "), in Huitou yu zhanwang (Retrospect and Prospect: Chinese

Changing Economics in the South: Preparing Our Youth. Hearing before the Select Committee on Children, Youth, and Families. House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, First Session (Nashville, TN, April 24, 1987).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. House Select Committee on Children, Youth, and Families.

The House Select Committee on Children, Youth, and Families met in Nashville, Tennessee, to gather information on the education and employment futures of youth in the South. Testimony was heard from experts in education, training, and economic development. Organizations represented included universities in the region, adolescent dropout and…

Options for Kentucky's Energy Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larry Demick

2012-11-01

Three important imperatives are being pursued by the Commonwealth of Kentucky: ? Developing a viable economic future for the highly trained and experienced workforce and for the Paducah area that today supports, and is supported by, the operations of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP). Currently, the PGDP is scheduled to be taken out of service in May, 2013. ? Restructuring the economic future for Kentucky’s most abundant indigenous resource and an important industry – the extraction and utilization of coal. The future of coal is being challenged by evolving and increasing requirements for itsmore » extraction and use, primarily from the perspective of environmental restrictions. Further, it is important that the economic value derived from this important resource for the Commonwealth, its people and its economy is commensurate with the risks involved. Over 70% of the extracted coal is exported from the Commonwealth and hence not used to directly expand the Commonwealth’s economy beyond the severance taxes on coal production. ? Ensuring a viable energy future for Kentucky to guarantee a continued reliable and affordable source of energy for its industries and people. Today, over 90% of Kentucky’s electricity is generated by burning coal with a delivered electric power price that is among the lowest in the United States. Anticipated increased environmental requirements necessitate looking at alternative forms of energy production, and in particular electricity generation.« less

Water scarcity and economic damage in Europe: regionally relevant simulations from 2000 to 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad; Bisselink, Bernard; Gelati, Emiliano; Karssenberg, Derek; de Jong, Steven

2017-04-01

Water availability is unequally distributed across Europe. Where certain regions experience a surplus of water, other areas have limited water availability which causes economic damage to the water using sectors such as households, industries or agriculture. Future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions are expected to further increase the competition for available water that is already present in Europe. This means there is an increasing need for models that are able to simulate this multi-sectorial system of water availability and demand and incorporate the socio-economic component required for robust decisions and policy support. We present our modelling study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water scarcity and economic damage simulations. First we developed regionally relevant pan-European water demand simulations for the household and industry sector from 2000 up to 2050. For the household sector we developed a model to simulate water use based on water price, income and several other relevant variables at NUTS-3 level (over 1200 regions in Europe). Alternatively, we modelled industrial water use based on regionally downscaled water productivity values at the national level for ten sub-sections of the NACE (Nomenclature of Economic Activities) classification for economic activities. Subsequently we used scenario projections of our explanatory variables to make scenario simulations of water demand from 2000 up to 2050 at pan-European scale with unprecedented spatial and sub-sectorial detail. In order to analyze the European water use system we integrated these water demand scenarios into the hydrological rainfall-runoff model called LISFLOOD (Distributed Water Balance and Flood Simulation Model), which incorporates a vegetation module for the simulation of crop yield and irrigation water demand of the agriculture sector. We simulated river discharge and groundwater availability for abstractions of water using sectors across Europe from 2000 up to 2050 at 5km grid level for multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios. This allowed us to identify regions with water scarcity problems from the recent past up to 2050 and quantify the economic damage that can be attributed to the limited water availability. Results showed several regions where substantially more water is extracted from the system than what would be sustainable into the future. Furthermore, we analyzed how changing water prices or relocation of economic activities could reduce future water scarcity problems and decrease the related economical damage. We found that for some regions, relatively small measurers already could have a positive impact on water scarcity problems.

Systematic review and overview of health economic evaluation models in obesity prevention and therapy.

PubMed

Schwander, Bjoern; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Nuijten, Mark; Evers, Silvia

2016-10-01

Given the increasing clinical and economic burden of obesity, it is of major importance to identify cost-effective approaches for obesity management. Areas covered: This study aims to systematically review and compile an overview of published decision models for health economic assessments (HEA) in obesity, in order to summarize and compare their key characteristics as well as to identify, inform and guide future research. Of the 4,293 abstracts identified, 87 papers met our inclusion criteria. A wide range of different methodological approaches have been identified. Of the 87 papers, 69 (79%) applied unique /distinctive modelling approaches. Expert commentary: This wide range of approaches suggests the need to develop recommendations /minimal requirements for model-based HEA of obesity. In order to reach this long-term goal, further research is required. Valuable future research steps would be to investigate the predictiveness, validity and quality of the identified modelling approaches.

Economic filters for evaluating porphyry copper deposit resource assessments using grade-tonnage deposit models, with examples from the U.S. Geological Survey global mineral resource assessment: Chapter H in Global mineral resource assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Gilpin R.; Menzie, W. David

2012-01-01

One implication of the economic filter results for undiscovered copper resources is that global copper supply will continue to be dominated by production from a small number of giant deposits. This domination of resource supply by a small number of producers may increase in the future, because an increasing proportion of new deposit discoveries are likely to occur in remote areas and be concealed deep beneath covering rock and sediments. Extensive mineral exploration activity will be required to meet future resource demand, because these deposits will be harder to find and more costly to mine than near-surface deposits located in more accessible areas. Relatively few of the new deposit discoveries in these high-cost settings will have sufficient tonnage and grade characteristics to assure positive economic returns on development and exploration costs.

Health Economics of Dengue: A Systematic Literature Review and Expert Panel's Assessment

PubMed Central

Beatty, Mark E.; Beutels, Philippe; Meltzer, Martin I.; Shepard, Donald S.; Hombach, Joachim; Hutubessy, Raymond; Dessis, Damien; Coudeville, Laurent; Dervaux, Benoit; Wichmann, Ole; Margolis, Harold S.; Kuritsky, Joel N.

2011-01-01

Dengue vaccines are currently in development and policymakers need appropriate economic studies to determine their potential financial and public health impact. We searched five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, LILAC, EconLit, and WHOLIS) to identify health economics studies of dengue. Forty-three manuscripts were identified that provided primary data: 32 report economic burden of dengue and nine are comparative economic analyses assessing various interventions. The remaining two were a willingness-to-pay study and a policymaker survey. An expert panel reviewed the existing dengue economic literature and recommended future research to fill information gaps. Although dengue is an important vector-borne disease, the economic literature is relatively sparse and results have often been conflicting because of use of inconsistent assumptions. Health economic research specific to dengue is urgently needed to ensure informed decision making on the various options for controlling and preventing this disease. PMID:21363989

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larson, Kyle B.; Tagestad, Jerry D.; Perkins, Casey J.

This study was conducted with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Wind and Water Power Technologies Office (WWPTO) as part of ongoing efforts to minimize key risks and reduce the cost and time associated with permitting and deploying ocean renewable energy. The focus of the study was to discuss a possible approach to exploring scenarios for ocean renewable energy development in Hawaii that attempts to optimize future development based on technical, economic, and policy criteria. The goal of the study was not to identify potentially suitable or feasible locations for development, but to discuss how such anmore » approach may be developed for a given offshore area. Hawaii was selected for this case study due to the complex nature of the energy climate there and DOE’s ongoing involvement to support marine spatial planning for the West Coast. Primary objectives of the study included 1) discussing the political and economic context for ocean renewable energy development in Hawaii, especially with respect to how inter-island transmission may affect the future of renewable energy development in Hawaii; 2) applying a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach that has been used to assess the technical suitability of offshore renewable energy technologies in Washington, Oregon, and California, to Hawaii’s offshore environment; and 3) formulate a mathematical model for exploring scenarios for ocean renewable energy development in Hawaii that seeks to optimize technical and economic suitability within the context of Hawaii’s existing energy policy and planning.« less

The Development of the European Information Market through Education and Training--The Portuguese Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Correia, Ana Maria Ramalho; Wilson, Tom

1993-01-01

Describes Portugal's role in the development of a European information market. Highlights include the role of the European Economic Community, particularly the Commission of the European Communities; information management education at the University of Sheffield in Portugal; and future possibilities. (eight references) (LRW)

Hurdle towards Education Decentralization: An Ontological Paradigm of Community Participation in India and Nepal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rajbhandari, Mani Man Singh

2011-01-01

Education is socially and economically beneficial for the country to grow large in future. Many researchers claims expenditure in education generates more productivity than expenditure in infrastructural development of the country. This instigated for move towards educational progression, especially in developing countries where majority of…

The NGO Sector in Pakistan: Past, Present and Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anzar, Uzma

Despite significant developments on the economic front, the Pakistani government's human development efforts have failed to serve the needs of the poor. Whereas the rural poor do not trust government schemes, they do trust nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), most of which are apolitical community-based grassroots organizations accountable to…

Rising Dragon: Infrastructure Development and Chinese Influence in Vietnam

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

This thesis will contribute to the on-going debate over whether China’s rise as a regional and potential global power will be benign or disruptive...bilateral and regional initiatives. These infrastructure developments create the mechanisms for future exploitation by expanding China’s economic and military

The Reality and Future of Latin America: An Educational Challenge.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arias, Oscar

1993-01-01

Third World countries have lacked the resources to invest in economic and academic development. The source lies in gross inequities between industrialized and developing countries. Globalization of markets has not benefited Latin America. Militarism, corruption, poverty, and social injustice can only be eradicated by incorporating strong…

Developing an Environmental Scanning System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.

A step-by-step approach is provided for developing an environmental scanning system for colleges and universities to assist them in planning for the future. The objectives of such a system are to detect social, scientific, economic, technical, and political interactions important to the organization; define potential threats and opportunities from…

Working with Families to Inspire Children's Persistence in STEM

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kumar, Rashmi

2016-01-01

Policymakers and educators emphasize science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) instruction as key to individuals' and nations' future economic prosperity. It can be considered to be of particular value to students in developing countries and for disadvantaged students in developed countries. As families play a critical role in a…

The Role of Libraries in an Information Age.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duttweiler, Robert W.

The future role of libraries will develop as a consequence of social, technological, political, economic, and educational factors that are evident today, including: (1) the development of an information society and the question of paper versus paperless means of transmitting information; (2) the growing use of micrographics, telecommunications,…

Consider the Connections. Global Issues Education Packet.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holm, Amy E.

The old ways of doing things are no longer suitable to some of the current conditions faced by the world, such as overpopulation, environmental degradation, unstable economic development, and wasteful consumption of natural resources. In order to achieve a sustainable future, nations must develop better long range planning through combining…

The Economic Impact of Adaptive Responses to Future Scenarios of Socio-Economic and Ecological Change in the Tonle Sap Ecosystem, Cambodia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teh, L.; Bond, N.; KC, K. B.; Fraser, E. D. G.; Seng, R.; Sumaila, R.

2016-12-01

The livelihoods of people dependent on the Tonle Sap floodplain ecosystem in Cambodia are expected to be affected by future socio-economic, policy, ecological, and climate change. To investigate the economic impact of these changes on fishing dependent communities, we compare the net income from individuals' current livelihoods to that derived from reallocating their livelihood activities under 4 different scenarios depicting future change. Under current conditions, we find that the group of individuals who do not participate in fishing had the lowest net income. In contrast, individuals who participated in fishing only had comparatively higher average net income than those with multiple livelihoods, suggesting that there may be current gains from livelihood specialisation. When presented with scenarios of future ecological and socio-economic change, the majority of respondents chose to retain their current livelihood strategy under all future scenarios. Of those who did change their livelihood allocation, less than 10% actually experienced a gain in economic benefits. Overall, a loss in net income was expected under all future scenarios, with those engaged in single livelihoods being the most vulnerable because they were likely to experience the largest losses (7 - 29% loss vs. 1 - 17% for multi-livelihoods) across all 4 scenarios while having the least capacity to adapt. Respondents' choices generated the best economic outcome under the scenario depicting the status quo, indicating that they were capable of coping with current conditions, but were unlikely to make appropriate decisions when faced with future scenarios that they were unfamiliar with. By quantifying the consequences of low adaptive capacity in terms of income loss, this study provides an economic argument for addressing the social and economic factors that currently inhibit the capacity of Tonle Sap inhabitants to adapt to future change. It also emphasises the need for sustainable management of fish and water resources upon which inhabitants are currently heavily dependent upon.

Development and application of biotechnologies in the metal mining industry.

PubMed

Johnson, D Barrie

2013-11-01

Metal mining faces a number of significant economic and environmental challenges in the twenty-first century for which established and emerging biotechnologies may, at least in part, provide the answers. Bioprocessing of mineral ores and concentrates is already used in variously engineered formats to extract base (e.g., copper, cobalt, and nickel) and precious (gold and silver) metals in mines throughout the world, though it remains a niche technology. However, current projections of an increasing future need to use low-grade primary metal ores, to reprocess mine wastes, and to develop in situ leaching technologies to extract metals from deep-buried ore bodies, all of which are economically more amenable to bioprocessing than conventional approaches (e.g., pyrometallurgy), would suggest that biomining will become more extensively utilized in the future. Recent research has also shown that bioleaching could be used to process a far wider range of metal ores (e.g., oxidized ores) than has previously been the case. Biotechnologies are also being developed to control mine-related pollution, including securing mine wastes (rocks and tailings) by using "ecological engineering" approaches, and also to remediate and recover metals from waste waters, such as acid mine drainage. This article reviews the current status of biotechnologies within the mining sector and considers how these may be developed and applied in future years.

Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

PubMed

Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

2010-03-01

Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

Household water demand and welfare loss for future Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; Lanzanova, Denis; de Roo, Ad

2015-04-01

Matching the availability of water to its demand in Europe is a major challenge for the future due to expected economic and demographic developments and climate change. This means there is a growing need to estimate future water demand and to optimize the water allocation to all end users to counteract welfare loss. At the European scale it is currently not possible to assess the impact of social and economic changes on future water demand or to prioritize water allocation amongst different sectors based on economic damage without extensive use of assumptions and generalizations. Indeed, our review of existing regional optimization models for Europe reveals that the social-economic component of the water use system needs to be improved by complementing them with detailed water use estimates and cost/benefit functions in order to determine the optimal situation. Our study contributes to closing this knowledge gap for the European household sector by quantifying future water demand and the effect of water pricing, as well as providing a method for the calculation of monetary damage due to unmet demand at the highest spatial resolution possible. We used a water demand function approach in which household water consumption depends upon some exogenous drivers including water price, household income, population and household characteristics and climate conditions. For each European country, the annual water consumption per capita was calculated at regional level (NUTS3) and subsequently disaggregated to five kilometer grid level based on a population density map. In order to produce estimates of water demand, the evolution of the explanatory variables of the water demand functions and population density map were simulated until 2050 based on related variables such as GDP and demographic projections. The results of this study will be integrated into the JRC hydro-economic modelling framework for an assessment of the Water-Agriculture-Energy-Ecosystems Nexus.

Making a Difference: The Future of HPT in Sustaining Best-Practice International Capacity Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Steven J.; Coughlin, Patrick C.; Novak, M. Mari

2012-01-01

Over the past decade, human performance technology (HPT) has become an important source of rigor and application in support of best practices in capacity development. HPT shares common principles with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development best practices. This article explores HPT's critical role as the methodology of choice…

Bridging the Gap between Educational Needs for Development and Current Education Systems in Sylhet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rahaman, Mohammad Mizenur; Chowdhury, Mosaddak Ahmed

2016-01-01

Education builds a nation. National development highly depends on Education. Education is the main component to execute the vision of the nation. The Global scenario of socio-economic development is changing while knowledge supplants physical capital as the source of present (and future) wealth. Sylhet is far better that other division of the…

An Energy-Economy-Environment Model for Simulating the Impacts of Socioeconomic Development on Energy and Environment

PubMed Central

Yao, Bo

2014-01-01

Many rapidly developing regions have begun to draw the attention of the world. Meanwhile, the energy and environmental issues associated with rapid economic growth have aroused widespread critical concern. Therefore, studying energy, economic, and environmental systems is of great importance. This study establishes a system dynamic model that covers multiple aspects of those systems, such as energy, economy, population, water pollution, air pollution, solid waste, and technology. The model designed here attempts to determine the impacts of socioeconomic development on the energy and environment of Tongzhou District in three scenarios: under current, planning, and sustainable conditions. The results reveal that energy shortages and water pollutions are very serious and are the key issues constraining future social and economic development. Solid waste emissions increase with population growth. The prediction results provide valuable insights into social advancement. PMID:24683332

Economic development: the need for an alternative approach. [Case of Libya

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pinches, C.R.

1977-10-01

The economic growth of Libya is used to illustrate the need for a more relevant way of assessing development so that it includes an appreciation for the process of change. It is shown that many changes do not appear in the traditional economic statistics. A new approach is suggested that would enable a society to handle changes in ways that are in accord with its national goals and traditions. This would take into account future developments, international relations, the basic skill levels, and other factors rather than a limited measurement of the country's ability to absorb capital. Libya has chosen,more » as an alternative to increased consumption, policies for developing self-sufficiency, a limited foreign investment, and an emphasis on education as a basis for modernization. The goal is to evolve a national identity and ideology that will be unique to the Arab world. (DCK)« less

Something Old, Something New: The Wedding of Rural Education and Rural Development. SGPB Alert: Analysis of Emerging Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenfeld, Stuart

It is becoming increasingly apparent that rural communities will have to alter their economic patterns as the United States economy shifts and rural areas cannot compete successfully with cities for emerging industries and future jobs. Instead of catering to the large firms and high-tech companies that are expected to predominate in the future,…

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

2013-12-01

Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of testing for cytochrome P450 polymorphisms in patients with schizophrenia treated with antipsychotics: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Fleeman, N; McLeod, C; Bagust, A; Beale, S; Boland, A; Dundar, Y; Jorgensen, A; Payne, K; Pirmohamed, M; Pushpakom, S; Walley, T; de Warren-Penny, P; Dickson, R

2010-01-01

To determine whether testing for cytochrome P450 (CYP) polymorphisms in adults entering antipsychotic treatment for schizophrenia leads to improvement in outcomes, is useful in medical, personal or public health decision-making, and is a cost-effective use of health-care resources. The following electronic databases were searched for relevant published literature: Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness, EMBASE, Health Technology Assessment database, ISI Web of Knowledge, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Health Economic Evaluation Database, Cost-effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry and the Centre for Health Economics website. In addition, publicly available information on various genotyping tests was sought from the internet and advisory panel members. A systematic review of analytical validity, clinical validity and clinical utility of CYP testing was undertaken. Data were extracted into structured tables and narratively discussed, and meta-analysis was undertaken when possible. A review of economic evaluations of CYP testing in psychiatry and a review of economic models related to schizophrenia were also carried out. For analytical validity, 46 studies of a range of different genotyping tests for 11 different CYP polymorphisms (most commonly CYP2D6) were included. Sensitivity and specificity were high (99-100%). For clinical validity, 51 studies were found. In patients tested for CYP2D6, an association between genotype and tardive dyskinesia (including Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale scores) was found. The only other significant finding linked the CYP2D6 genotype to parkinsonism. One small unpublished study met the inclusion criteria for clinical utility. One economic evaluation assessing the costs and benefits of CYP testing for prescribing antidepressants and 28 economic models of schizophrenia were identified; none was suitable for developing a model to examine the cost-effectiveness of CYP testing. Tests for determining genotypes appear to be accurate although not all aspects of analytical validity were reported. Given the absence of convincing evidence from clinical validity studies, the lack of clinical utility and economic studies, and the unsuitability of published schizophrenia models, no model was developed; instead key features and data requirements for economic modelling are presented. Recommendations for future research cover both aspects of research quality and data that will be required to inform the development of future economic models.

Policy making for vaccine use as a driver of vaccine innovation and development in the developed world.

PubMed

Seib, Katherine; Pollard, Andrew J; de Wals, Philippe; Andrews, Ross M; Zhou, Fangjun; Hatchett, Richard J; Pickering, Larry K; Orenstein, Walter A

2017-03-07

In the past 200years, vaccines have had unmistakable impacts on public health including declines in morbidity and mortality, most markedly in economically-developed countries. Highly engineered vaccines including vaccines for conditions other than infectious diseases are expected to dominate future vaccine development. We examine immunization vaccine policy as a driver of vaccine innovation and development. The pathways to recommendation for use of licensed vaccines in the US, UK, Canada and Australia have been similar, including: expert review of disease epidemiology, disease burden and severity; vaccine immunogenicity, efficacy and safety; programmatic feasibility; public demand; and increasingly cost-effectiveness. Other attributes particularly important in development of future vaccines are likely to include: duration of immunity for improved vaccines such as pertussis; a greater emphasis on optimizing community protection rather than direct protection only; programmatic implementation, feasibility, improvements (as in the case of development of a universal influenza vaccine); public concerns/confidence/fears related to outbreak pathogens like Ebola and Zika virus; and major societal burden for combating hard to treat diseases like HIV and antimicrobial resistant pathogens. Driving innovation and production of future vaccines faces enormous economic hurdles as available approaches, technologies and regulatory pathways become more complex. As such, cost-mitigating strategies and focused, aligned efforts (by governments, private organizations, and private-public partnerships) will likely be needed to continue to spur major advances in vaccine technologies and development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of the copper and molybdenum industries and the Armenian economy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bond, A.R.; Levine, R.M.

1997-01-01

Production of copper and molybdenum in Armenia is examined, with special emphasis on the location of major deposits, former and proposed future centers of processing, and contribution of metals exports to the country's foreign trade revenues. Particular emphasis is placed on the impacts on these industries of the disruption of economic ties resulting from the dissolution of the USSR and an economic crisis precipitated by a major earthquake, Armenia's tension with Azerbaijan over armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas in Azerbaijan, an economic blockade imposed by Turkey and Azerbaijan, and a consequent severe energy crisis. The paper highlights developments in the mid-1990s in copper and molybdenum and in the recent expansion of trade relations with Iran.

A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

2015-04-01

We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on the maximization of water benefits, over time and space. A parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach is used. This gives a projection of future water scarcity in the different locations and an estimation of the associated direct economic losses from unsatisfied demands. This generic hydroeconomic model can be easily applied to large-scale regions, in particular developing regions where little reliable data is available. We will present an application to Algeria, up to the 2050 horizon.

Future of Liquid Biofuels for APEC Economies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milbrandt, A.; Overend, R. P.

2008-05-01

This project was initiated by APEC Energy Working Group (EWG) to maximize the energy sector's contribution to the region's economic and social well-being through activities in five areas of strategic importance including liquid biofuels production and development.

Short-term Hydropower Reservoir Operations in Chile's Central Interconnected System: Tradeoffs between Hydrologic Alteration and Economic Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivares, M. A.

2011-12-01

Hydropower accounts for about 50% of the installed capacity in Chile's Central Interconnected System (CIS) and new developments are envisioned in the near future. Large projects involving reservoirs are perceived negatively by the general public. In terms of operations, hydropower scheduling takes place at monthly, weekly, daily and hourly intervals, and operations at each level affect different environmental processes. Due to its ability to quickly and inexpensively respond to short-term changes in demand, hydropower reservoirs often are operated to provide power during periods of peak demand. This operational scheme, known as hydropeaking, changes the hydrologic regime by altering the rate and frequency of changes in flow magnitude on short time scales. To mitigate impacts on downstream ecosystems, operational constraints -typically minimum instream flows and maximum ramping rates- are imposed on hydropower plants. These operational restrictions limit reduce operational flexibility and can reduce the economic value of energy generation by imposing additional costs on the operation of interconnected power systems. Methods to predict the degree of hydrologic alteration rely on statistical analyses of instream flow time series. Typically, studies on hydrologic alteration use historical operational records for comparison between pre- and post-dam conditions. Efforts to assess hydrologic alteration based on future operational schemes of reservoirs are scarce. This study couples two existing models: a mid-term operations planning and a short-term economic dispatch to simulate short-term hydropower reservoir operations under different future scenarios. Scenarios of possible future configurations of the Chilean CIS are defined with emphasis on the introduction of non-conventional renewables (particularly wind energy) and large hydropower projects in Patagonia. Both models try to reproduce the actual decision making process in the Chilean Central Interconnected System (CIS). Chile's CIS is structured as a mandatory pool with audited costs and therefore the economic dispatch can be formulated as a cost minimization problem. Consequently, hydropower reservoir operations are controlled by the ISO. Reservoirs with the most potential to cause short-term hydrologic alteration were identified from existing operational records. These records have also been used to validate our simulated operations. Results in terms of daily and subdaily hydrologic alteration as well as the economic performance of the CIS are presented for alternative energy matrix scenarios. Tradeoff curves representing the compromise between indicators of hydrologic alteration and economic indicators of the CIS operation are developed.

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America

PubMed Central

Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C.; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas—ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways. PMID:29020041

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America.

PubMed

Purse, Bethan V; Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.

The Algorithm of Development the World Ocean Mining of the Industry During the Global Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyrkov, Anatoliy; Budnik, Vladislav; Sokolov, Sergei; Chernyi, Sergei

2016-08-01

In the article reviewed extraction effect of hydrocarbons on the general country's developing, under the impact of economical, demographical and technological factors, as well as it's future role in the world energy balance. Also adduced facts which designate offshore and deep water production of unconventional and conventional hydrocarbons including mining of marine mineral resources as perspective area of development in the future, despite all the difficulties of this sector. In the article considered the state and prospects of the Russian continental shelf, in consideration of its geographical location and its all existing problems.

Charting Russia's Future in the Post-Soviet Era. Eighth Edition. Teacher Resource Book [and Student Text]. Public Policy Debate in the Classroom. Choices for the 21st Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Sarah Cleveland

Russia struggle with questions of identity and economic stability sine ending its Cold War relationship with the United States. In this unit students are asked to see the world through Russian eyes and to contemplate Russian choices in the areas of economic development, political organization, and foreign policy. The unit focuses on three distinct…

The Joint CEDEFOP/ETF Project on 'Scenarios and Strategies for Vocational Training and Lifelong Learning in Europe': A Contribution to the Debate on the Future of Europe.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sellin, Burkart

A project in Europe is working to improve the quality of work, promote equal opportunities, combat exclusion and poverty; promote lasting economic growth and a European Union economic policy; and promote sustainable development and quality of life. In order to achieve these goals, three main objectives for vocational education and training (VET)…

The South Korean Model of Political and Economic Development: Economic Aspects.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-01

controls, future wage negotiations are likely to prove difficult as workers push to make up for earlier losses. Negotiations may even by destabilizing if 6... workers and reports of labor shortage during seasons of veak farm activity. Traditional labor abundance has evidently given way to shortage, and to...new entrants and more fully employ established workers . The dramatic reversal in output growth of 1979-80, sub- sequent industrial stagnation, and a

Uncertainty: the Curate's egg in financial economics.

PubMed

Pixley, Jocelyn

2014-06-01

Economic theories of uncertainty are unpopular with financial experts. As sociologists, we rightly refuse predictions, but the uncertainties of money are constantly sifted and turned into semi-denial by a financial economics set on somehow beating the future. Picking out 'bits' of the future as 'risk' and 'parts' as 'information' is attractive but socially dangerous, I argue, because money's promises are always uncertain. New studies of uncertainty are reversing sociology's neglect of the unavoidable inability to know the forces that will shape the financial future. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2014.

Harnessing the uncertainty monster: Putting quantitative constraints on the intergenerational social discount rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, Stephan; Freeman, Mark C.; Mann, Michael E.

2017-09-01

There is broad consensus among economists that unmitigated climate change will ultimately have adverse global economic consequences, that the costs of inaction will likely outweigh the cost of taking action, and that social planners should therefore put a price on carbon. However, there is considerable debate and uncertainty about the appropriate value of the social discount rate, that is the extent to which future damages should be discounted relative to mitigation costs incurred now. We briefly review the ethical issues surrounding the social discount rate and then report a simulation experiment that constrains the value of the discount rate by considering 4 sources of uncertainty and ambiguity: Scientific uncertainty about the extent of future warming, social uncertainty about future population and future economic development, political uncertainty about future mitigation trajectories, and ethical ambiguity about how much the welfare of future generations should be valued today. We compute a certainty-equivalent declining discount rate that accommodates all those sources of uncertainty and ambiguity. The forward (instantaneous) discount rate converges to a value near 0% by century's end and the spot (horizon) discount rate drops below 2% by 2100 and drops below previous estimates by 2070.

The future of hospital laboratories. Position statement from the Royal Belgian Society of Clinical Chemistry (RBSCC).

PubMed

Langlois, Michel R; Wallemacq, Pierre

2009-01-01

To face the economic pressures arising from the current socio-economic conjuncture, hospital laboratories are endangered by an increasing trend towards the outsourcing of clinical laboratory tests to external (mega-) laboratories. This should allow hospitals to meet their economic requirements, but with an increased risk of loss of medical quality and, mid- to long-term, loss of cost effectiveness of healthcare at the national level. To anticipate current developments (economical and technological) that inevitably will affect the future of laboratory medicine, hospital laboratories should be proactive and enhance efficiency, reduce costs by consolidation, integrate into regional networks, and form alliances or partnerships. To create additional value, the core competency of laboratory professionals must be refocused to provide medical knowledge services (consultative support to clinicians) related to in vitro diagnostic testing. To integrate cost-efficiency with medical quality, implementation of a matricial organization - operational vs. biomedical level - could be an interesting approach. This integrated structure should create total quality of laboratory testing, managing the entire medical diagnostic cycle from the pre-preanalytical to post-postanalytical phase.

Science and society test VI: Energy economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafemeister, David W.

1982-01-01

Simple numerical estimates are developed in order to quantify a variety of energy economics issues. The Verhulst equation, which considers the effect of finite resources on petroleum production, is modified to take into account supply and demand economics. Numerical and analytical solutions to these differential equations are presented in terms of supply and demand elasticity functions, various finite resources, and the rate of increase in fuel costs. The indirect cost per barrel of imported oil from OPEC is shown to be about the same as the direct cost. These effects, as well as those of discounted benefits and deregulation, are used in a calculation of payback periods for various energy conserving devices. A phenomenological model for market penetration is developed along with the factors for future energy growth rates. A brief analysis of the economic returns of the ''house doctor'' program to reprofit houses for energy conservation is presented.

Groundwater-pumping optimization for land-subsidence control in Beijing plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Huanhuan; Andrews, Charles B.; Tian, Fang; Cao, Guoliang; Luo, Yong; Liu, Jiurong; Zheng, Chunmiao

2018-01-01

Beijing, in the North China plain, is one of the few megacities that uses groundwater as its main source of water supply. Groundwater accounts for about two-thirds of the city's water supply, and during the past 50 years the storage depletion from the unconsolidated aquifers underlying the city has been >10.4 billion m3. By 2010, groundwater pumping in the city had resulted in a cumulative subsidence of greater than 100 mm in an area of about 3,900 km2, with a maximum cumulative subsidence of >1,200 mm. This subsidence has caused significant social and economic losses in Beijing, including significant damage to underground utilities. This study was undertaken to evaluate various future pumping scenarios to assist in selecting an optimal pumping scenario to minimize overall subsidence, meet the requirements of the Beijing Land Subsidence Prevention Plan (BLSPP 2013-2020), and be consistent with continued sustainable economic development. A numerical groundwater and land-subsidence model was developed for the aquifer system of the Beijing plain to evaluate land subsidence rates under the possible future pumping scenarios. The optimal pumping scenario consistent with the evaluation constraints is a reduction in groundwater pumping from three major pumping centers by 100, 50 and 20%, respectively, while maintaining an annual pumping rate of 1.9 billion m3. This scenario's land-subsidence rates satisfy the BLSPP 2013-2020 and the pumping scenario is consistent with continued economic development. It is recommended that this pumping scenario be adopted for future land-subsidence management in Beijing.

Groundwater-pumping optimization for land-subsidence control in Beijing plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Huanhuan; Andrews, Charles B.; Tian, Fang; Cao, Guoliang; Luo, Yong; Liu, Jiurong; Zheng, Chunmiao

2018-06-01

Beijing, in the North China plain, is one of the few megacities that uses groundwater as its main source of water supply. Groundwater accounts for about two-thirds of the city's water supply, and during the past 50 years the storage depletion from the unconsolidated aquifers underlying the city has been >10.4 billion m3. By 2010, groundwater pumping in the city had resulted in a cumulative subsidence of greater than 100 mm in an area of about 3,900 km2, with a maximum cumulative subsidence of >1,200 mm. This subsidence has caused significant social and economic losses in Beijing, including significant damage to underground utilities. This study was undertaken to evaluate various future pumping scenarios to assist in selecting an optimal pumping scenario to minimize overall subsidence, meet the requirements of the Beijing Land Subsidence Prevention Plan (BLSPP 2013-2020), and be consistent with continued sustainable economic development. A numerical groundwater and land-subsidence model was developed for the aquifer system of the Beijing plain to evaluate land subsidence rates under the possible future pumping scenarios. The optimal pumping scenario consistent with the evaluation constraints is a reduction in groundwater pumping from three major pumping centers by 100, 50 and 20%, respectively, while maintaining an annual pumping rate of 1.9 billion m3. This scenario's land-subsidence rates satisfy the BLSPP 2013-2020 and the pumping scenario is consistent with continued economic development. It is recommended that this pumping scenario be adopted for future land-subsidence management in Beijing.

[Analysis and design structure of an aging society].

PubMed

Fujimasa, Iwao

2012-01-01

On observing present Japanese society, we can find deep gaps between the present system and its probable future. One of the gaps may be due to the misconception that future societal make up is not definite. The aim of the current study was to investigate a future societal structure and to develop methods of adding a timed dimension policy to the societal structure. This is named "A theory of structuralism economics". We developed 3 societal structure projection engines and applied a system of dynamics language to estimate the future total population of Japan. The Japan total population reached a maximum in 2005, and thereafter depopulation begun. The populations in the younger working age group (from 25 to 54 years old) and those in the elderly working age group (from 55 to 84 years old) became almost equal in 2010. As economic growth rate depends upon an increase in the working population, the increase in national income rate of Japan approached over 10% per year between 1950 to 1970. The increased working age population of the same period exceeded 2.5% annually. However, after 2005 depopulation began in Japan. In future, national income will decrease proportional to the working age population, but personal national income will hold almost unchanged. We propose a new strategy for future society structure. The working age should be extended by 10 years. Labor power will come to exceed 60% of the population and will thereafter become stable.

Starting a Business in the Permian Basin.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, Danny

The business and economic development center of Midland College provides assistance to small businesses. Written for use by future and current small business owners and entrepreneurs living in a 17-county area of the Permian Basin of Texas, this guidebook describes the procedures for developing a business plan and for successfully starting and…

Local alternative energy futures: developing economies/building communities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Totten, M.; Glass, B.; Freedberg, M.

A separate abstract was prepared for each of the three parts of the conference. A sufficient range of information is presented to enable interested parties to explore the viable alternatives for community self-sufficiency. The parts are entitled: Financial Incentives and Funding Sources; Standards, Regulations, Mandates, Ordinances, Covenants; and Community/Economic Development. (MCW)

Literary Competence of Future Philology Teachers' Professional Development (Based on the Educational Experience of Germany)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bazyl, Ludmyla

2015-01-01

The author performs a theoretical analysis of the educational experience in philology teachers' professional training in Germany in the context of solving scientific problem of literary competence development. Internal and external factors of this process have been determined both by socio-political realities, economic, philosophical, cultural,…

Education--1985. Career and Vocational Education Professional Development Report Number 8.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robb, Felix C.

Before considering characteristics of American education in the future, we need to consider the contemporary condition of potentials and problems. Recent developments make us realize we cannot and do not function as a nation apart. Global issues must be our concern: equilibrium of forces and international conflict; economic status and…

Experience with Entrepreneurship Learning Using Serious Games

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Almeida, Fernando

2017-01-01

The teaching of entrepreneurship is currently a fundamental pillar in the construction of social responsibility with strong impact on the future economic development of society. The use of serious games in the entrepreneurship field is a way of encouraging students' motivation to become entrepreneurs and develop their skills in the field. In this…

Reflections on the Future Development of Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Paris (France).

Designed to explore the prospects for the development of education throughout the 1980s and 1990s, this study looked at general trends in education in the course of the 1970s, socio-economic evolution in the world, and foreseeable advances in science and technology, in order to outline the priorities for international cooperation. Within the…

Smoking behavior of Mexicans: patterns by birth-cohort, gender, and education.

PubMed

Christopoulou, Rebekka; Lillard, Dean R; Balmori de la Miyar, Josè R

2013-06-01

Little is known about historical smoking patterns in Mexico. Policy makers must rely on imprecise predictions of human or fiscal burdens from smoking-related diseases. In this paper we document intergenerational patterns of smoking, project them for future cohorts, and discuss those patterns in the context of Mexico's impressive economic growth. We use retrospectively collected information to generate life-course smoking prevalence rates of five birth-cohorts, by gender and education. With dynamic panel data methods, we regress smoking rates on indicators of economic development. Smoking is most prevalent among men and the highly educated. Smoking rates peaked in the 1980s and have since decreased, slowly on average, and fastest among the highly educated. Development significantly contributed to this decline; a 1 % increase in development is associated with an average decline in smoking prevalence of 0.02 and 0.07 percentage points for women and men, respectively. Mexico's development may have triggered forces that decrease smoking, such as the spread of health information. Although smoking rates are falling, projections suggest that they will be persistently high for several future generations.

Water Resource Adaptation Program

EPA Science Inventory

The Water Resource Adaptation Program (WRAP) contributes to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) efforts to provide water resource managers and decision makers with the tools needed to adapt water resources to demographic and economic development, and future clim...

Constructivist Approach in a Paradigm of Public School Teachers' Professional Development in Great Britain, Canada, the USA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mukan, Nataliya; Fuchyla, Olena; Ihnatiuk, Halyna

2017-01-01

The article dwells on professional development of public school teachers as an inevitable constituent of education systems in the 21st century. In such economically developed countries as Great Britain, Canada and the USA, the problem of preparing teachers to a difficult and responsible task of upbringing and educating future citizens always…

Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harder, B.J.

1995-03-01

Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be mademore » to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.« less

Forecasting the global shortage of physicians: an economic- and needs-based approach

PubMed Central

Liu, Jenny X; Kinfu, Yohannes; Dal Poz, Mario R

2008-01-01

Abstract Objective Global achievements in health may be limited by critical shortages of health-care workers. To help guide workforce policy, we estimate the future demand for, need for and supply of physicians, by WHO region, to determine where likely shortages will occur by 2015, the target date of the Millennium Development Goals. Methods Using World Bank and WHO data on physicians per capita from 1980 to 2001 for 158 countries, we employ two modelling approaches for estimating the future global requirement for physicians. A needs-based model determines the number of physicians per capita required to achieve 80% coverage of live births by a skilled health-care attendant. In contrast, our economic model identifies the number of physicians per capita that are likely to be demanded, given each country’s economic growth. These estimates are compared to the future supply of physicians projected by extrapolating the historical rate of increase in physicians per capita for each country. Findings By 2015, the global supply of physicians appears to be in balance with projected economic demand. Because our measure of need reflects the minimum level of workforce density required to provide a basic health service that is met in all but the least developed countries, the needs-based estimates predict a global surplus of physicians. However, on a regional basis, both models predict shortages for many countries in the WHO African Region in 2015, with some countries experiencing a needs-based shortage, a demand-based shortage, or both. Conclusion The type of policy intervention needed to alleviate projected shortages, such as increasing health-care training or adopting measures to discourage migration, depends on the type of shortage projected. PMID:18670663

Puerto Rico: Statehood, Independence of Status Quo.

DTIC Science & Technology

The paper investigates factors which might influence the future status of Puerto Rico and speculates what this status might be. Discussion is devoted primarily to the development of political stability and improvement of economic conditions on the island. Three future courses exist and are the matter of varying degrees of sentiment. These courses are: Shall Puerto Rico become a state. Shall it become an independent country. Shall it remain a commonwealth.

On the Edge: Three Years after the Report of the Commission on the Future of the North Carolina Community College System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MDC, Inc., Chapel Hill, NC.

In 1989, the Commission on the Future of the North Carolina Community College System adopted a series of recommendations to improve the operation, funding, and economic and social returns of the state's community colleges. This report looks at each of the major challenges of the Commission, reviews trends and developments that may have altered the…

Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 4: Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Four background scenarios that relate to alternative states of society in the next 25 to 50 years are described. The scenarios were developed for use in analyzing and evaluating alternative future intercity transportation technologies. The scenarios are based, in part, on discussions contained in the issue papers and, in part, on separate analysis of social and economic trends considered relevant for the evolution of intercity transportation.

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Andrea, M.; Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T. P.

2010-10-01

Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM) produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary - each cell either contains a tree or it is empty - and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM), addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

Economic Cognitions Among Older Adults: Parental Socialization Predicts Financial Planning for Retirement

PubMed Central

Palaci, Francisco; Jiménez, Irene; Topa, Gabriela

2017-01-01

Drawing on the model on financial planning for retirement (FPR), the aim of this work is to explore how parental economic socialization both directly and indirectly affects FPR through the mediation of financial literacy, financial planning decisions and financial management. Data from a sample of 280 participants aged between 45 and 63 years were used. The results show that parental economic socialization directly and indirectly influences FPR. Moreover, parental economic behavior acts as a positive model for the development of financial literacy and skills and for decisions about FPR. All the variables increased the explained variance of FPR. Lastly, we discuss the process by which parental economic socialization is positively related to financial literacy and skills that impact on FPR, indicating some implications and future lines of research. PMID:29209198

Economic Cognitions Among Older Adults: Parental Socialization Predicts Financial Planning for Retirement.

PubMed

Palaci, Francisco; Jiménez, Irene; Topa, Gabriela

2017-01-01

Drawing on the model on financial planning for retirement (FPR), the aim of this work is to explore how parental economic socialization both directly and indirectly affects FPR through the mediation of financial literacy, financial planning decisions and financial management. Data from a sample of 280 participants aged between 45 and 63 years were used. The results show that parental economic socialization directly and indirectly influences FPR. Moreover, parental economic behavior acts as a positive model for the development of financial literacy and skills and for decisions about FPR. All the variables increased the explained variance of FPR. Lastly, we discuss the process by which parental economic socialization is positively related to financial literacy and skills that impact on FPR, indicating some implications and future lines of research.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Preliminary report on the coal resources of the Dickenson area, Billings, Dunn, and Stark counties, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Menge, Michael L.

1977-01-01

The Dickinson area is underlain by the coal-bearing Fort Union Formation (Paleocene). The Fort Union in this area contains nine potentially economic coal beds. Five of these beds are, either all or in part, shallow enough to be economically extracted by conventional strip-mining methods, while the remaining four deeper beds represent future possible strip-mining, in situ, or shaft-mining coal resources. The Fort Union coal beds in the Dickinson area are relatively flat lying (dips are less than 1??) and only slightly influenced by faulting and both depositional and post-depositional channeling. Topography, coal thickness, and minimum overburden all combine to give the Dickinson area an excellent future coal resource development potential.

Assessment of energy research, development, and demonstration priorities for New York State. Interim report. Volume I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allentuck, J; Appleman, J; Carroll, T O

1977-11-01

In compliance with its mandate to accelerate the development and use of energy technologies in furtherance of the state's economic growth and the best interests of its population, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) initiated, in March 1977, an assessment of energy research and development priorities. This report presents a view of the energy supply-demand future of the state, and the ways in which this future can be affected by external contingencies and concerted policies. That view takes into consideration energy supplies that may be available to the state as well as energy demands as theymore » are affected by demographic and economic changes within the state. Also included are the effects of national energy policies and technological developments as they modify both supplies and demands in New York State. Finally, this report proceeds to identify those general technological areas in which the Authority's program can be of greatest potential benefit to the state's social and economic well being. This effort aims at a cost/benefit analysis determination of RD and D priorities. The preliminary analysis thus far indicates these areas as being of highest priority: energy conservation in buildings (promotion and execution of RD and D) and industry; district heating; fuel cell demonstration;solar heating and cooling (analysis, demonstration, and information dissemination); energy-environment interaction (analysis); energy information services; and, in general, the attraction of Federal RD and D programs to the state.« less

A comparative multi-disciplinary policy review in wind energy developments in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mytilinou, V.; Kolios, A. J.; Di Lorenzo, G.

2017-09-01

Over recent decades, European Union countries have committed to increasing their electricity production from renewable energy sources (RESs). Wind energy plays a significant role in a sustainable future. This paper presents a political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental analysis. Although these countries have made many improvements in their legal frameworks aiming to attract investors and boost the RE sector, there are still challenges. The UK focuses on offshore wind energy, adjusts the economic strategy and changes the legislation context. Germany has the healthiest economic conditions, as it keeps following its initiative to design a new programme for an energy transition from conventional to RESs with emphasis on the onshore. Greece has only a few installations and much room for development but needs to make further changes in the legislation and economy so as to attract more investors in the long term. The purpose of this research is to analyse, highlight and discuss vital aspects of these countries as well as the European environment, with reference to their current wind energy activities. Ultimately, it attempts to give a wider perspective and to serve as a guide for future studies on the wind energy sector.

Analysis and evalaution in the production process and equipment area of the low-cost solar array project. [including modifying gaseous diffusion and using ion implantation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldman, H.; Wolf, M.

1979-01-01

The manufacturing methods for photovoltaic solar energy utilization are assessed. Economic and technical data on the current front junction formation processes of gaseous diffusion and ion implantation are presented. Future proposals, including modifying gaseous diffusion and using ion implantation, to decrease the cost of junction formation are studied. Technology developments in current processes and an economic evaluation of the processes are included.

Environmental and Economic Implications of Distributed Additive Manufacturing: The Case of Injection Mold Tooling: Environmental Implications of Additive Manufacturing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Runze; Riddle, Matthew E.; Graziano, Diane

Additive manufacturing (AM) holds great potentials in enabling superior engineering functionality, streamlining supply chains, and reducing life cycle impacts compared to conventional manufacturing (CM). This study estimates the net changes in supply-chain lead time, life cycle primary energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and life cycle costs (LCC) associated with AM technologies for the case of injection molding, to shed light on the environmental and economic advantages of a shift from international or onshore CM to AM in the United States. A systems modeling framework is developed, with integrations of lead-time analysis, life cycle inventory analysis, LCC model, and scenariosmore » considering design differences, supply-chain options, productions, maintenance, and AM technological developments. AM yields a reduction potential of 3% to 5% primary energy, 4% to 7% GHG emissions, 12% to 60% lead time, and 15% to 35% cost over 1 million cycles of the injection molding production depending on the AM technology advancement in future. The economic advantages indicate the significant role of AM technology in raising global manufacturing competitiveness of local producers, while the relatively small environmental benefits highlight the necessity of considering trade-offs and balance techniques between environmental and economic performances when AM is adopted in the tooling industry. The results also help pinpoint the technological innovations in AM that could lead to broader benefits in future.« less

Environmental and Economic Implications of Distributed Additive Manufacturing: The Case of Injection Mold Tooling: Environmental Implications of Additive Manufacturing

DOE PAGES

Huang, Runze; Riddle, Matthew E.; Graziano, Diane; ...

2017-08-26

Additive manufacturing (AM) holds great potentials in enabling superior engineering functionality, streamlining supply chains, and reducing life cycle impacts compared to conventional manufacturing (CM). This study estimates the net changes in supply-chain lead time, life cycle primary energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and life cycle costs (LCC) associated with AM technologies for the case of injection molding, to shed light on the environmental and economic advantages of a shift from international or onshore CM to AM in the United States. A systems modeling framework is developed, with integrations of lead-time analysis, life cycle inventory analysis, LCC model, and scenariosmore » considering design differences, supply-chain options, productions, maintenance, and AM technological developments. AM yields a reduction potential of 3% to 5% primary energy, 4% to 7% GHG emissions, 12% to 60% lead time, and 15% to 35% cost over 1 million cycles of the injection molding production depending on the AM technology advancement in future. The economic advantages indicate the significant role of AM technology in raising global manufacturing competitiveness of local producers, while the relatively small environmental benefits highlight the necessity of considering trade-offs and balance techniques between environmental and economic performances when AM is adopted in the tooling industry. The results also help pinpoint the technological innovations in AM that could lead to broader benefits in future.« less

The Development of Future Orientation is Associated with Faster Decline in Hopelessness during Adolescence.

PubMed

Mac Giollabhui, Naoise; Nielsen, Johanna; Seidman, Sam; Olino, Thomas M; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2018-01-05

Hopelessness is implicated in multiple psychological disorders. Little is known, however, about the trajectory of hopelessness during adolescence or how emergent future orientation may influence its trajectory. Parallel process latent growth curve modelling tested whether (i) trajectories of future orientation and hopelessness and (ii) within-individual change in future orientation and hopelessness were related. The study was comprised of 472 adolescents [52% female, 47% Caucasian, 47% received free lunch] recruited at ages 12-13 who completed measures of future orientation and hopelessness at five annual assessments. The results indicate that a general decline in hopelessness across adolescence occurs quicker for those experiencing faster development of future orientation, when controlling for age, sex, low socio-economic status in addition to stressful life events in childhood and adolescence. Stressful childhood life events were associated with worse future orientation at baseline and negative life events experienced during adolescence were associated with both an increase in the trajectory of hopelessness as well as a decrease in the trajectory of future orientation. This study provides compelling evidence that the development of future orientation during adolescence is associated with a faster decline in hopelessness.

Issues in container transportation in the Northeast : background, framework, illustrative results and future directions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-12-01

An integrated framework for addressing container transportation issues in the Northeast US is developed and illustrated. The framework involves the extension of a spatial-economic coastal container port and related multimodal demand simulation model ...

The Economic Status of Women in the Transition to a Market System. The Case of Czechoslovakia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paukert, Liba

1991-01-01

Analyzes the situation of women workers in Czechoslovakia in terms of working conditions, difference in earnings compared to men, and attitudes toward work. Future developments, including massive unemployment of women, are outlined. (SK)

The Future of School Library Media Centers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Craver, Kathleen W.

1984-01-01

Examines impact of technology on school library media program development and role of school librarian. Technological trends (computerized record keeping, computer-assisted instruction, networking, home computers, videodiscs), employment and economic trends, education of school librarians, social and behavioral trends, and organizational and…

Economic Measures of Pollination Services: Shortcomings and Future Directions.

PubMed

Breeze, Tom D; Gallai, Nicola; Garibaldi, Lucas A; Li, Xui S

2016-12-01

Over the past 20 years, there has been growing interest in the possible economic impacts of pollination service loss and management. Although the literature area has expanded rapidly, there remains ongoing debate about the usefulness of such exercises. Reviewing the methods and findings of the current body of literature, this review highlights three major trends: (i) estimated benefits are heterogeneous, even when using the same method, due to several often-neglected factors. (ii) The current body of literature focuses heavily on the developed world, neglecting the effects on developing countries. (iii) Very few studies are suitable for informing management and policy. The review highlights the need for fully interdisciplinary work that embeds stakeholders and economic impacts into primary ecological research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the Quantitative Representation of Socioeconomic Conditions in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) using the International Futures Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothman, D. S.; Siraj, A.; Hughes, B.

2013-12-01

The international research community is currently in the process of developing new scenarios for climate change research. One component of these scenarios are the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which describe a set of possible future socioeconomic conditions. These are presented in narrative storylines with associated quantitative drivers. The core quantitative drivers include total population, average GDP per capita, educational attainment, and urbanization at the global, regional, and national levels. At the same time there have been calls, particularly by the IAV community, for the SSPs to include additional quantitative information on other key social factors, such as income inequality, governance, health, and access to key infrastructures, which are discussed in the narratives. The International Futures system (IFs), based at the Pardee Center at the University of Denver, is able to provide forecasts of many of these indicators. IFs cannot use the SSP drivers as exogenous inputs, but we are able to create development pathways that closely reproduce the core quantitative drivers defined by the different SSPs, as well as incorporating assumptions on other key driving factors described in the qualitative narratives. In this paper, we present forecasts for additional quantitative indicators based upon the implementation of the SSP development pathways in IFs. These results will be of value to many researchers.

Systematic Review of Economic Models Used to Compare Techniques for Detecting Peripheral Arterial Disease.

PubMed

Moloney, Eoin; O'Connor, Joanne; Craig, Dawn; Robalino, Shannon; Chrysos, Alexandros; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Sims, Andrew; Stansby, Gerard; Wilkes, Scott; Allen, John

2018-04-23

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a common condition, in which atherosclerotic narrowing in the arteries restricts blood supply to the leg muscles. In order to support future model-based economic evaluations comparing methods of diagnosis in this area, a systematic review of economic modelling studies was conducted. A systematic literature review was performed in June 2017 to identify model-based economic evaluations of diagnostic tests to detect PAD, with six individual databases searched. The review was conducted in accordance with the methods outlined in the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination's guidance for undertaking reviews in healthcare, and appropriate inclusion criteria were applied. Relevant data were extracted, and studies were quality assessed. Seven studies were included in the final review, all of which were published between 1995 and 2014. There was wide variation in the types of diagnostic test compared. The majority of the studies (six of seven) referenced the sources used to develop their model, and all studies stated and justified the structural assumptions. Reporting of the data within the included studies could have been improved. Only one identified study focused on the cost-effectiveness of a test typically used in primary care. This review brings together all applied modelling methods for tests used in the diagnosis of PAD, which could be used to support future model-based economic evaluations in this field. The limited modelling work available on tests typically used for the detection of PAD in primary care, in particular, highlights the importance of future work in this area.

KSC-05PD-0801

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. Members of the Economic Development Commission (EDC) of Floridas Space Coast were on hand to witness the signing of a three-year agreement for economic development cooperation in support of existing and future missions of NASA at KSC. Lynda Weatherman (third from left), president and CEO of the EDC, and Jim Kennedy (center) , director of Kennedy Space Center, signed the Space Act Agreement. At far right is Lisa Malone, director of External Relations and Business Development at KSC. Standing with them are members of the NASA External Relations directorate who helped facilitate the Space Act Agreement are, from left, James Ball, Kim Agee, John Hudiberg, David Pierce, Jessica Livingston and Trudy McCarthy.

Potential applications of advanced aircraft in developing countries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddalon, D. V.

1978-01-01

An investigation sponsored by NASA indicates that air transportation can play an important role in the economic progress of developing countries. By the turn of the century, the rapid economic growth now occurring in many developing countries should result in a major redistribution of the world's income. Some countries now classified as 'developing' will become 'developed' and are likely to become far more important to the world's civil aviation industry. Developing countries will be increasingly important buyers of conventional subsonic long-haul jet passenger aircraft but not to the point of significant influence on the design or technological content of future aircraft of this type. However, the technological content of more specialized aircraft may be influenced by developing country requirements and reflected in designs which fill a need concerning specialized missions, related to short-haul, low-density, rough runways, and natural resource development.

Developing an item bank to measure economic quality of life for individuals with disabilities.

PubMed

Tulsky, David S; Kisala, Pamela A; Lai, Jin-Shei; Carlozzi, Noelle; Hammel, Joy; Heinemann, Allen W

2015-04-01

To develop and evaluate the psychometric properties of an item set measuring economic quality of life (QOL) for use by individuals with disabilities. Survey. Community settings. Individuals with disabilities completed individual interviews (n=64), participated in focus groups (n=172), and completed cognitive interviews (n=15). Inclusion criteria included the following: traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, or stroke; age ≥18 years; and ability to read and speak English. We calibrated the items with 305 former rehabilitation inpatients. None. Economic QOL. Confirmatory factor analysis showed acceptable fit indices (comparative fit index=.939, root mean square error of approximation=.089) for the 37 items. However, 3 items demonstrated local item dependence. Dropping 9 items improved fit and obviated local dependence. Rasch analysis of the remaining 28 items yielded a person reliability of .92, suggesting that these items discriminate about 4 economic QOL levels. We developed a 28-item bank that measures economic aspects of QOL. Preliminary confirmatory factor analysis and Rasch analysis results support the psychometric properties of this new measure. It fills a gap in health-related QOL measurement by describing the economic barriers and facilitators of community participation. Future development will make the item bank available as a computer adaptive test. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate Forecasts and Water Resource Management: Applications for a Developing Country

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Rogers, P.

2002-05-01

While the quantity of water on the planet earth is relatively constant, the demand for water is continuously increasing. Population growth leads to linear increases in water demand, and economic growth leads to further demand growth. Strzepek et al. calculate that with a United Nations mean population estimate of 8.5 billion people by 2025 and globally balanced economic growth, water use could increase by 70% over that time (Strzepek et al., 1995). For developing nations especially, supplying water for this growing demand requires the construction of new water supply infrastructure. The prospect of designing and constructing long life-span infrastructure is clouded by the uncertainty of future climate. The availability of future water resources is highly dependent on future climate. With realization of the nonstationarity of climate, responsible design emphasizes resiliency and robustness of water resource systems (IPCC, 1995; Gleick et al., 1999). Resilient systems feature multiple sources and complex transport and distribution systems, and so come at a high economic and environmental price. A less capital-intense alternative to creating resilient and robust water resource systems is the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Such forecasts provide adequate lead time and accuracy to allow water managers and water-based sectors such as agriculture or hydropower to optimize decisions for the expected water supply. This study will assess the use of seasonal climate forecasts from regional climate models as a method to improve water resource management in systems with limited water supply infrastructure

Economic Spillovers From Public Investments in Medical Countermeasures: A Case Study of a Burn Debridement Product.

PubMed

Farahati, Farah; Nystrom, Scott; Howell, David R; Jaffe, Richard

2017-12-01

The US federal government invests in the development of medical countermeasures for addressing adverse health effects to the civilian population from chemical, biological, and radiological or nuclear threats. We model the potential economic spillover effects in day-to-day burn care for a federal investment in a burn debridement product for responding to an improvised nuclear device. We identify and assess 4 primary components for projecting the potential economic spillover benefits of a burn debridement product: (1) market size, (2) clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, (3) product cost, and (4) market adoption rates. Primary data sources were the American Burn Association's 2015 National Burn Repository Annual Report of Data and published clinical studies used to gain European approval for the burn debridement product. The study results showed that if approved for use in the United States, the burn debridement product has potential economic spillover benefits exceeding the federal government's initial investment of $24 million a few years after introduction into the burn care market. Economic spillover analyses can help to inform the prioritizing of scarce resources for research and development of medical countermeasures by the federal government. Future federal medical countermeasure research and development investments could incorporate economic spillover analysis to assess investment options. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:711-719).

Economic evaluation in chronic pain: a systematic review and de novo flexible economic model.

PubMed

Sullivan, W; Hirst, M; Beard, S; Gladwell, D; Fagnani, F; López Bastida, J; Phillips, C; Dunlop, W C N

2016-07-01

There is unmet need in patients suffering from chronic pain, yet innovation may be impeded by the difficulty of justifying economic value in a field beset by data limitations and methodological variability. A systematic review was conducted to identify and summarise the key areas of variability and limitations in modelling approaches in the economic evaluation of treatments for chronic pain. The results of the literature review were then used to support the development of a fully flexible open-source economic model structure, designed to test structural and data assumptions and act as a reference for future modelling practice. The key model design themes identified from the systematic review included: time horizon; titration and stabilisation; number of treatment lines; choice/ordering of treatment; and the impact of parameter uncertainty (given reliance on expert opinion). Exploratory analyses using the model to compare a hypothetical novel therapy versus morphine as first-line treatments showed cost-effectiveness results to be sensitive to structural and data assumptions. Assumptions about the treatment pathway and choice of time horizon were key model drivers. Our results suggest structural model design and data assumptions may have driven previous cost-effectiveness results and ultimately decisions based on economic value. We therefore conclude that it is vital that future economic models in chronic pain are designed to be fully transparent and hope our open-source code is useful in order to aspire to a common approach to modelling pain that includes robust sensitivity analyses to test structural and parameter uncertainty.

Children as the Potential for the Social and Demographic Development of Russia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rimashevskaia, N. M.

2012-01-01

The future of Russian society is manifested in the new generation, the community of children and young people. To a large extent, the country's social and economic development depends on the health and education of the rising generation, on its social values and orientations, its spirituality and morality, and its level of cultural accumulation.…

Universities Look to Obama to Expand Their Role in Development Abroad

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMurtrie, Beth

2009-01-01

As the Obama administration takes office, educators involved in development work abroad look to the future with hope. Although the economic downturn may constrain the new president's ability to make financial commitments abroad, Barack Obama has said he wants to double the amount of foreign assistance provided by the United States to fight poverty…

Future Developments of Educational Research in the Asia-Pacific Region: Paradigm Shifts, Reforms, and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Yin Cheong

2007-01-01

In facing up to the challenges and impacts of globalization, high technology, economic transformation, international competitions and local developments in the new century, there have been numerous educational reforms and initiatives in many countries in the Asia-Pacific Region (Cheng, 2005a, A new paradigm for re-engineering education:…

Invasive forest pathogens: Summary of issues, critical needs, and future goals for Forest Service Research and Development

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Jennifer Juzwik; Michael E. Ostry; Mee-Sook Kim; Paul J. Zambino; Robert C. Venette; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist; D. Jean Lodge; Jessie A. Glaeser; Susan J. Frankel; William J. Otrosina; Pauline Spaine; Brian W. Geils

2010-01-01

Invasive pathogens have caused immeasurable ecological and economic damage to forest ecosystems. Damage will undoubtedly increase over time due to increased introductions and evolution of invasive pathogens in concert with complex environmental disturbances, such as climate change. Forest Service Research and Development must fulfill critical roles and responsibilities...

Education: Past, Present and Future Global Challenges. Policy Research Working Paper 5616

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Psacharopoulos, George

2011-01-01

Progress in educational development in the world since 1900 has been slow and uneven between countries. Providing basic education for all children in developing countries has been and remains an unmet challenge of governments and international organizations alike. This is in sharp contrast to recent findings in the economics literature on the…

75 FR 54627 - ICLUS v1.3 User's Manual: ArcGIS Tools and Datasets for Modeling U.S. Housing Density Growth

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-08

... Climate and Land Use Scenarios, a project which is described in the 2009 EPA Report, ``Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing- Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines.'' These scenarios are... economic development, which are used by climate change modelers to develop projections of future climate...

How Institutional Contexts Influence the Civic Development of Students at Three Mexican Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canton Guzman, Alicia

2011-01-01

The purpose of every university is to contribute to the public good by educating socially responsible, civically minded, engaged citizens. In the context of a developing country such as Mexico, with multiple challenges of social, political and economic order, the role of universities in preparing future leaders and civically engaged citizens is…

North Carolina FHA/HERO Proficiency Event Handbook 1988-1990. "Students Taking Action for Recognition."

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

North Carolina State Dept. of Public Instruction, Raleigh. Div. of Vocational Education.

This handbook is designed to provide opportunities for members of the North Carolina Association of Future Homemakers of America (FHA) to demonstrate their proficiency with the competencies they have developed through participation in FHA and the home economics education program. The 25 events are designed to help develop lifetime skills in…

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

Future Water Scarcity and Potential Effects on Food Production under Climate Change in the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Q.; Yin, Y. Y.; Liu, X.; Zhang, X.

2016-12-01

Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River Basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. In this study, we assess water scarcity under climate change and various socio-economic pathways with an emphasis on the impact of water shortages on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are projected under the new developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The renewable water supply is estimated from the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5. The agricultural water use is assumed to have the lowest priority of all water consumers when water shortage occurs. The results show that the water demands in domestic and industrial sectors would grow rapidly. As more water resources would be occupied by domestic and industrial sectors, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture which would lead to more than a reduction in food production under various socio-economic pathways. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.

Importance of Economic Evaluation in Health Care: An Indian Perspective.

PubMed

Dang, Amit; Likhar, Nishkarsh; Alok, Utkarsh

2016-05-01

Health economic studies provide information to decision makers for efficient use of available resources for maximizing health benefits. Economic evaluation is one part of health economics, and it is a tool for comparing costs and consequences of different interventions. Health technology assessment is a technique for economic evaluation that is well adapted by developed countries. The traditional classification of economic evaluation includes cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-utility analysis, and cost-benefit analysis. There has been uncertainty in the conduct of such economic evaluations in India, due to some hesitancy with respect to the adoption of their guidelines. The biggest challenge in this evolutionary method is lack of understanding of methods in current use by all those involved in the provision and purchasing of health care. In some countries, different methods of economic evaluation have been adopted for decision making, most commonly to address the question of public subsidies for the purchase of medicines. There is limited evidence on the impact of health insurance on the health and economic well-being of beneficiaries in developing countries. India is currently pursuing several strategies to improve health services for its population, including investing in government-provided services as well as purchasing services from public and private providers through various schemes. Prospects for future growth and development in this field are required in India because rapid health care inflation, increasing rates of chronic conditions, aging population, and increasing technology diffusion will require greater economic efficiency into health care systems. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tracking Dissipation Reduction, Externalities, Stability and Sustainability for Environmental Management of New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D.; Werner, B. T.

2014-12-01

Sustainability requires stability, but in promoting economic development, modern economies and political systems reduce stabilizing dissipation by facilitating use and management of the environment through engineered mitigation of disturbances, which externalizes dissipation over the short to medium term. To quantitatively investigate the relationship between a range of environmental management approaches and sustainability, and the implications for Earth's future, we track the impact of management strategies on dissipation within the system and its externalities in a numerical model for the coupled economic, political/management and flooding dynamics of New Orleans. The model simulates river floods, hurricane storm-surge-induced floods, subsidence, and agent-based market interactions leading to development of port services, hotels, homes and labor relations. Flood protection decisions for levee construction based on the baseline case of cost-benefit analyses designed to prevent short-term economic loss from future floods qualitatively reproduce historical expansion of New Orleans and increases in levee height. Alternative management strategies explored include majority voting, consensus-based decision-making, and variations in discounting of costs and benefits. Enhanced dissipation is measured relative to optimal economic development without floods. The focus of modern economies on commodification is exploited to track dissipation as a scalar representing value or power, but this approach might not be applicable to more complicated traditional/indigenous cultures or cultures of resistance. For the baseline case, short-to-medium-term reductions in dissipation destabilize the coupled system, resulting in episodic bursts of externalized dissipation during flooding. Comparisons of results for a range of management options and generalizations of this approach for alternative cultural systems will be discussed.

Domestic Wind Energy Workforce; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, Suzanne

2015-07-30

A robust workforce is essential to growing domestic wind manufacturing capabilities. NREL researchers conducted research to better understand today's domestic wind workforce, projected needs for the future, and how existing and new education and training programs can meet future needs. This presentation provides an overview of this research and the accompanying industry survey, as well as the Energy Department's Career Maps, Jobs & Economic Development Impacts models, and the Wind for Schools project.

Women in Development: Looking to the Future. Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations. United States Senate, Ninety-Eighth Congress, Second Session.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. Senate.

In this Congressional hearing witnesses explored the roles of government, private agencies, the media, public education, business, and labor in contributing to the further enhancement of the role of women in the economic development of the Third World. Government witnesses were M. Peter McPherson, Agency for International Development and Nancy…

[Engineering and expertise in sustainable development in hospitals].

PubMed

Barat, Pascal

2012-01-01

Sustainable development is nowadays a concept shared by most people even if it is sometimes hard to grasp. Combining good economic management, social progress and the protection of the environment is not always easy. It is however an essential exercise in order not to compromise the ability of future generations to meet their requirements. Tours University Hospital embarked on a sustainable development strategy in 2008.

A web-based spatial decision support system for spatial planning and governance in the Guangdong Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qitao; Zhang, Hong-ou; Chen, Fengui; Dou, Jie

2008-10-01

After three decades' rapid economic development, Guangdong province faces to thorny problems related to pollution, resource shortage and environmental deterioration. What is worse, the future accelerated development, urbanization and industrialization also comes at the cost of regional imbalance with economic gaps growing and the quality of life in different regions degrading. Development and Reform Commission of Guangdong Province (GDDRC) started a spatial planning project under the national frame in 2007. The prospective project is expected to enhance the equality of different regions and balance the economic development with environmental protection and improved sustainability. This manuscript presents the results of scientific research aiming to develop a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) for this spatial planning project. The system composes four modules include the User interface module (UIM), Spatial Analyze module (SAM), Database management module (DMM) and Help module (HM) base on ArcInfo, JSP/Servlet, JavaScript, MapServer, Visual C++ and Visual Basic technologies. The web-based SDSS provides a user-friendly tool for local decision makers, regional planners and other stakeholders in understanding and visualizing the different territorial dimensions of economic development against sustainable environmental and exhausted resources, and in defining, comparing and prioritizing specific territorially-based actions in order to prevent non-sustainable development and implement relevant politics.

Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Jon David

The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

Worldwide Report, Telecommunications Policy, Research and Development.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-02-22

installation of the transmission system which has been finished while Laos will build related facilities such as buildings, he said. The new radio...between Niamey and Cotonou and Niamey and Ouaga for regional African communications. Outlook for the Future The particularly trying economic

Education from a Gender Equality Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Agency for International Development, 2008

2008-01-01

Education is universally acknowledged to benefit individuals and promote national development. Educating females and males produces similar increases in their subsequent earnings and expands future opportunities and choices for both boys and girls. However, educating girls produces many additional socio-economic gains that benefit entire…

The New Hampshire climate action plan : a plan for New Hampshire's energy, environmental and economic development future

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

By implementing the recommended actions of the Task Force, New Hampshire will achieve substantial emission reductions, beginning immediately, using cost-effective, available : technology. The greatest reductions would come from improvements in the bu...

The Future of Schooling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nash, Paul

A number of demographic, economic, and psychosocial developments already emergent in society are likely to continue and to intensify. These forces have already manifested themselves on the educational scene, causing anxiety and fear in students and teachers. Traditional North American values like obedience, hierarchical authority, and competitive…

Journal of Business and Training Education, 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Redmann, Donna H., Ed.

2000-01-01

This ninth issue contains seven articles dealing with research, theory, trends and issues, curriculum, teaching methodology, technology, and personal/professional development. "Attitudes of FBLA (Future Business Leaders of America) Students toward Traditional Business Values and the American Economic System" (Inder P. Nijihawan, Richard…

Suggestions for Maintaining Educational Technology Programs in Hard-Pressed Areas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greene, John W.

1984-01-01

Discusses personnel development and inexpensive sources of equipment needed for successful educational technology programs in economically hard-pressed areas in the United States and in Third World countries. Surveys future technological trends and stresses need for planning and foresight. (CJM)

Technology and the Future of Appalachian Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winters, R. Oakley

1999-01-01

Proposes that Appalachia pursue an economic development strategy based on exporting knowledge and training. Partnerships between governments, private utilities, and institutions of higher learning could improve the telecommunications infrastructure, establish new learning products companies, instruct adults at their home and work places, expand…

The economic promise of developing and implementing dengue vaccines: Evidence from a systematic review.

PubMed

Endo, Iara C; Ziegelmann, Patricia K; Patel, Anita

2016-12-07

Dengue fever is one of the most rapidly advancing viral vector-borne diseases worldwide and vaccine candidates are in the final stages of clinical trials, representing a decisive opportunity to control the disease. To decide whether and where to support the introduction of new vaccines it is crucial to assess costs imposed by the disease and cost-effectiveness of vaccine programmes. To identify economic evidence about dengue fever immunization, by systematic review, to assist future policy decisions and investment. The electronic search stage was conducted on PubMed/Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) and Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS) databases. Searches were restricted to papers published between January 1970 and February 2016. Selected papers were quality assessed using three recognized checklists. Eleven relevant studies were identified and there is economic evidence of a satisfactory quality level, derived through modelling approaches, to conclude that dengue fever vaccines will be economically advantageous when compared to vector preventive strategies, despite uncertainties surrounding vaccine efficacy and costs per vaccine dose. Quality assessment based on checklists showed similar findings and although overall quality was considered satisfactory, there were relevant methodological issues not considered among studies reviewed. Several uncertainties still remain about effectiveness of dengue fever vaccines; however, the reviewed economic evidence suggests that, when available, the vaccine can be economically advantageous at moderate prices. Future research needs to confirm findings from the economic models by using actual costs and effectiveness data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technology and the American Economic Transition: Choices for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Congress of the U.S., Washington, DC. Office of Technology Assessment.

This book analyzes the future of the United States in terms of people in their role as consumers and as employees. It uses conventional economic accounting procedures to document economic growth, but also employs more qualitative standards for measuring progress in eight basic categories of demand or amenity: food, housing, transportation, health,…

Inclusiveness in the health economic evaluation space.

PubMed

Ryan, Mandy; Gerard, Karen

2014-05-01

This paper presents an overview of Gavin Mooney's contributions to broadening the evaluative space in health economics. It outlines how Mooney's ideas have encouraged many, including ourselves, to expand the conventional QALYs/health gain approach and look more broadly at what it is that is of value from health services. We reflect on Mooney's contributions to debates around cost-effectiveness analysis, Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and cost-utility analysis as well as his contribution to the development and application of contingent valuation and discrete choice experiments in health economics. We conclude by suggesting important avenues for future research to take forward Mooney's work. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EPA RE-Powering America's Lands: Kansas City Municipal Farm Site ₋ Biomass Power Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunsberger, R.; Mosey, G.

2015-01-01

Through the RE-Powering America's Land initiative, the economic and technical feasibility of utilizing biomass at the Kansas City, Missouri, Municipal Farm site, a group of City-owned properties, is explored. The study that none of the technologies we reviewed--biomass heat, power and CHP--are economically viable options for the Municipal Farms site. However, if the site were to be developed around a future central biomass heating or CHP facility, biomass could be a good option for the site.

The scientific research potential of virtual worlds.

PubMed

Bainbridge, William Sims

2007-07-27

Online virtual worlds, electronic environments where people can work and interact in a somewhat realistic manner, have great potential as sites for research in the social, behavioral, and economic sciences, as well as in human-centered computer science. This article uses Second Life and World of Warcraft as two very different examples of current virtual worlds that foreshadow future developments, introducing a number of research methodologies that scientists are now exploring, including formal experimentation, observational ethnography, and quantitative analysis of economic markets or social networks.

Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Tingju; Lund, Jay R.; Jenkins, Marion W.; Marques, Guilherme F.; Ritzema, Randall S.

2007-06-01

This paper examines levee-protected floodplains and economic aspects of adaptation to increasing long-term flood risk due to urbanization and climate change. The lower American River floodplain in the Sacramento, California, metropolitan area is used as an illustration to explore the course of optimal floodplain protection decisions over long periods. A dynamic programming model is developed and suggests economically desirable adaptations for floodplain levee systems given simultaneous changes in flood climate and urban land values. Economic engineering optimization analyses of several climate change and urbanization scenarios are made. Sensitivity analyses consider assumptions about future values of floodplain land and damageable property along with the discount rate. Methodological insights and policy lessons are drawn from modeling results, reflecting the joint effects and relationships that climate, economic costs, and regional economic growth can have on floodplain levee planning decisions.

US computer research networks: Current and future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kratochvil, D.; Sood, D.; Verostko, A.

1989-01-01

During the last decade, NASA LeRC's Communication Program has conducted a series of telecommunications forecasting studies to project trends and requirements and to identify critical telecommunications technologies that must be developed to meet future requirements. The Government Networks Division of Contel Federal Systems has assisted NASA in these studies, and the current study builds upon these earlier efforts. The current major thrust of the NASA Communications Program is aimed at developing the high risk, advanced, communications satellite and terminal technologies required to significantly increase the capacity of future communications systems. Also, major new technological, economic, and social-political events and trends are now shaping the communications industry of the future. Therefore, a re-examination of future telecommunications needs and requirements is necessary to enable NASA to make management decisions in its Communications Program and to ensure the proper technologies and systems are addressed. This study, through a series of Task Orders, is helping NASA define the likely communication service needs and requirements of the future and thereby ensuring that the most appropriate technology developments are pursued.

Systematic Review of Model-Based Economic Evaluations of Treatments for Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Hernandez, Luis; Ozen, Asli; DosSantos, Rodrigo; Getsios, Denis

2016-07-01

Numerous economic evaluations using decision-analytic models have assessed the cost effectiveness of treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the last two decades. It is important to understand the methods used in the existing models of AD and how they could impact results, as they could inform new model-based economic evaluations of treatments for AD. The aim of this systematic review was to provide a detailed description on the relevant aspects and components of existing decision-analytic models of AD, identifying areas for improvement and future development, and to conduct a quality assessment of the included studies. We performed a systematic and comprehensive review of cost-effectiveness studies of pharmacological treatments for AD published in the last decade (January 2005 to February 2015) that used decision-analytic models, also including studies considering patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The background information of the included studies and specific information on the decision-analytic models, including their approach and components, assumptions, data sources, analyses, and results, were obtained from each study. A description of how the modeling approaches and assumptions differ across studies, identifying areas for improvement and future development, is provided. At the end, we present our own view of the potential future directions of decision-analytic models of AD and the challenges they might face. The included studies present a variety of different approaches, assumptions, and scope of decision-analytic models used in the economic evaluation of pharmacological treatments of AD. The major areas for improvement in future models of AD are to include domains of cognition, function, and behavior, rather than cognition alone; include a detailed description of how data used to model the natural course of disease progression were derived; state and justify the economic model selected and structural assumptions and limitations; provide a detailed (rather than high-level) description of the cost components included in the model; and report on the face-, internal-, and cross-validity of the model to strengthen the credibility and confidence in model results. The quality scores of most studies were rated as fair to good (average 87.5, range 69.5-100, in a scale of 0-100). Despite the advancements in decision-analytic models of AD, there remain several areas of improvement that are necessary to more appropriately and realistically capture the broad nature of AD and the potential benefits of treatments in future models of AD.

Cost-effectiveness in Clostridium difficile treatment decision-making

PubMed Central

Nuijten, Mark JC; Keller, Josbert J; Visser, Caroline E; Redekop, Ken; Claassen, Eric; Speelman, Peter; Pronk, Marja H

2015-01-01

AIM: To develop a framework for the clinical and health economic assessment for management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). METHODS: CDI has vast economic consequences emphasizing the need for innovative and cost effective solutions, which were aim of this study. A guidance model was developed for coverage decisions and guideline development in CDI. The model included pharmacotherapy with oral metronidazole or oral vancomycin, which is the mainstay for pharmacological treatment of CDI and is recommended by most treatment guidelines. RESULTS: A design for a patient-based cost-effectiveness model was developed, which can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current and future treatment strategies in CDI. Patient-based outcomes were extrapolated to the population by including factors like, e.g., person-to-person transmission, isolation precautions and closing and cleaning wards of hospitals. CONCLUSION: The proposed framework for a population-based CDI model may be used for clinical and health economic assessments of CDI guidelines and coverage decisions for emerging treatments for CDI. PMID:26601096

Cost-effectiveness in Clostridium difficile treatment decision-making.

PubMed

Nuijten, Mark Jc; Keller, Josbert J; Visser, Caroline E; Redekop, Ken; Claassen, Eric; Speelman, Peter; Pronk, Marja H

2015-11-16

To develop a framework for the clinical and health economic assessment for management of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). CDI has vast economic consequences emphasizing the need for innovative and cost effective solutions, which were aim of this study. A guidance model was developed for coverage decisions and guideline development in CDI. The model included pharmacotherapy with oral metronidazole or oral vancomycin, which is the mainstay for pharmacological treatment of CDI and is recommended by most treatment guidelines. A design for a patient-based cost-effectiveness model was developed, which can be used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of current and future treatment strategies in CDI. Patient-based outcomes were extrapolated to the population by including factors like, e.g., person-to-person transmission, isolation precautions and closing and cleaning wards of hospitals. The proposed framework for a population-based CDI model may be used for clinical and health economic assessments of CDI guidelines and coverage decisions for emerging treatments for CDI.

The climate of Kazakhstan: an examination of current conditions and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Andrew; Ali, Maged; Althonayan, Abraham; Akhmetov, Kanat; Gazdiyeva, Bella; Ghalaieny, Mohamed; Kurmanbayeva, Aygul; McCann, Meg; Mukanov, Yelzhas; Tucker, Allan; Zhumabayeva, Sara

2017-04-01

Environmental Health is an essential aspect of any successful society; indeed, it was recognised as a cornerstone of the UN's Agenda 21 action plan for sustainable development. Clean air and water, safe food, minimal exposure to toxic materials, disaster preparedness, planning for climate change and effective waste management are all fundamental to a healthy population and socio-economic progress. In recent years, particularly since 2000, Kazakhstan's economic development has been exceptional. However, health indicators such as life expectancy are lagging behind nations with similar economies. It is likely that this "health lag" is, to a large extent, caused or aggravated by the poor state of Kazakhstan's natural environment. In this paper, we focus on the role of recent and future climate change in Kazakhstan. We examine ECMWF re-analysis data, data derived directly from observations and CMIP5 climate projections for the region to understand how climate may impact environmental health in the country. This analysis is part of a larger project that aims to take a more holistic approach to the analysis of environmental health in a developing nation.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyce, Tucker

International trade and related economic activities in Central and South Asia are increasing as developing economies, particularly India and Pakistan, grow. China continues to emerge as a major regional and global power and has embarked upon numerous regional economic and political initiatives . A major development is the China - Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a host of infrastructure and trade projects worth over 40 billion American dollars . This report analyzes CPEC a nd its potential regional effects, including the trade security implications of the port and land infrastructure developments . As trade increase s in the reg ion andmore » the major CPEC infrastructure projects are completed, there will be numerous implications on trade security and geopolitics within South Asia. CPEC projects uniquely intersect numerous regional situations, including territorial disputes in Kashmir, the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, and Chinese foreign policy a mbitions. A nuanced understanding of these effects can influence future policy adjustments in this region . The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Sandia National Laboratories or the author's current and past institutions.« less

Strengths and virtues and the development of resilience: A qualitative study in Suriname during a time of economic crisis.

PubMed

Hendriks, Tom; Graafsma, Tobi; Hassankhan, Aabidien; Bohlmeijer, Ernst; de Jong, Joop

2018-03-01

Resilience can be described as the capacity to deal with adversity and traumatic events. The current economic situation in Suriname and its social economic consequences may demand a great amount of resilience for people living in Suriname. In this explorative study, we examined the relation between strengths and resilience among the three major ethnic groups in Suriname. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 25 participants. We sought to gather viewpoints from community representatives, health care professionals and academic scholars about the personal resources used by people in Suriname to help them deal with the consequences of the current socio-economic crisis. We identified major five strengths that were associated with resilience: religiousness, hope, harmony, acceptance and perseverance. While these strengths contribute to the development of resilience, they can under certain circumstances have an ambiguous influence. Our findings suggest that religiousness is the bedrock strength for the development of resilience in Suriname. We recommend that future positive psychological interventions in non-Western countries integrate positive activities with religious elements into program interventions to achieve a better cultural fit.

Classification of geothermal resources by potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybach, L.

2015-03-01

When considering and reporting resources, the term "geothermal potential" is often used without clearly stating what kind of potential is meant. For renewable energy resources it is nowadays common to use different potentials: theoretical, technical, economic, sustainable, developable - decreasing successively in size. In such a sequence, the potentials are progressively realizable and more and more rewarding financially. The theoretical potential describes the physically present energy, the technical potential the fraction of this energy that can be used by currently available technology and the economic potential the time- and location-dependent fraction of the previous category; the sustainable potential constrains the fraction of the economic potential that can be utilized in the long term; the developable potential is the fraction of the economic resource which can be developed under realistic conditions. In converting theoretical to technical potential, the recovery factor (the ratio extractable heat/heat present at depth) is of key importance. An example (global geothermal resources) is given, with numerical values of the various potentials. The proposed classification could and should be used as a kind of general template for future geothermal energy resources reporting.

Environment, migration and the European demographic deficit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, Sarah

2012-03-01

Many countries in the more developed world, and some in the less developed, are facing new economic and social pressures associated with the ageing of their populations. Europe, in particular, is forecast to have a demographic deficit, which may be alleviated by in-migration to the region. However, several commentators have proposed that Europe will not be able to successfully compete with other regions, in particular Asia, in the coming years for the skills it will require. This letter explores these themes, arguing that climate change will increase the attractiveness of Europe as a destination of economic choice for future skilled workers, to the detriment of more environmentally challenged regions.

Nuclear electric generation: Political, social, and economic cost and benefit to Indonesia. Master`s thesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waliyo

Indonesia, the largest archipelagic country with a population the fourth biggest in the world, is now in the process of development. It needs a large quantity of energy electricity to meet the industrial and household demands. The currently available generating capacity is not sufficient to meet the electricity demand for the rapidly growing industries and the increasing population. In order to meet the future demand for electricity, new generating capacity is required to be added to the current capacity. Nuclear electricity generation is one possible alternative to supplement Indonesia`s future demand of electricity. This thesis investigates the possibility of developingmore » nuclear electricity generation in Indonesia, considering the political, social, and economic cost and benefit to Indonesia.« less

NONFUEL MINERAL RESOURCES OF THE PACIFIC EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clague, David; Bischoff, James; Howell, David

1984-01-01

The Pacific Exclusive Economic Zone contains a variety of hard mineral resources. Sand and gravel and their associated placer deposits of heavy minerals are the most likely to be developed in the near future, but offshore and deep water deposits of phosphorite, abyssal manganese nodules, ferromanganese crusts enriched in cobalt, and massive sulfide deposits all represent future resources. The distribution, extent, and formation of these deposits are poorly understood and will be clarified only with additional exploration, framework geologic mapping, and study of the processes by which these resources form. It is pointed out that the initial discovery of most hard-mineral resources in the EEZ was made during routine scientific marine-geologic surveys aimed at understanding the framework geology and geologic processes of an offshore region.

Women, Peace And Security: A Diverse Future In The USAF Is A Better Future

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-16

development of recruiting, such as to ensure millennials consider military service a viable option. The third recommendation suggests the development...strong leaders have knowledge of history, politics, cultures, religion , economics, and much more. But key to this mix of “smarts” is a drive for...continues+to+decline &source=bl&ots=bF5rXk2Lrh&sig=-GYN4htwJqzA1ac6C23cLFfB-- Y &hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjexaz7zfXKAhXMKyYKHXSTBfYQ6AEIIDAB#v=onepage&q

The future of hospital economic health.

PubMed

Gerber, David R; Bekes, Carolyn E; Parrillo, Joseph E

2006-03-01

To evaluate factors which may influence the economic future of academic medical centers (AMCs). A literature search was performed to identify publications which reviewed the areas of revenue sources for AMCs, costs and expenses incurred by these institutions, and mechanisms for optimizing institutional economic stability. Data were reviewed and evaluated in two primary contexts: hospital revenues and organizational and administrative factors influencing hospital economic health. Increasing economic stress will require AMCs to make efforts both to increase revenue through a variety of mechanisms and to minimize expenses without compromising their mission or impairing worker morale.

Rural Math Talent, Now and Then

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howley, Craig B.; Showalter, Daniel; Klein, Robert; Sturgill, Derek J.; Smith, Michael A.

2013-01-01

This article interprets inequality evident at the intersection of three realms: (a) mathematical talent (as a cultural phenomenon); (b) rural place and rural life; and (c) future economic, political, and ecological developments. The discussion explains this outlook on inequality, contextualizes interest in rural mathematics education, presents the…

A sustainable approach to empower the bio-based future: upgrading of biomass via process intensification

EPA Science Inventory

An economically viable and environmentally benign continuous flow intensified process has been developed to demonstrate the ability to upgrade biomass into potential biofuels, solvents, and pharmaceutical feedstocks using a bimetallic AgPd@g-C3N4 catalyst.

Cryopreservation of apple (Malus spp.): development, progress and future prospects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Apple (Malus sp.) is one of the most economically important temperate fruit crops. Wild Malus genetic resources and existing cultivars provide valuable genes for breeding new elite cultivars and rootstocks through traditional and biotechnological breeding programs. Over the last three decades, great...

Virtual Transformations: The Evolution of Publication Media.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnold, Kenneth

1995-01-01

Examines the developing publication forms in the electronic environment in light of critical perspectives on textuality, historical dimensions of technological change, and economic and political considerations. Suggests that books will be significantly altered in the networked future and concludes that impediments to change are cultural, not…

Chameleons in Marketspace: Industry Transformation in the New Electronic Marketing Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pattinson, Hugh; Brown, Linden

1996-01-01

Discusses the new information infrastructure and its possible influences on marketing. Highlights include an alternative perspective of industrial economic history based on infrastructure development; the Internet and its positioning within the new information infrastructure; future possibilities and impacts on organizational structure; and…

Hydrogen: Its Future Role in the Nation's Energy Economy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winsche, W. E.; And Others

1973-01-01

Advocates the development of a hydrogen fuel economy as an alternative to the predominately electric economy based upon nuclear plants and depleting fossil fuel supplies. Evaluates the economic and environmental benefits of hydrogen energy delivery systems in the residential and transportation sectors. (JR)

Economic rate of discount and estimating cost benefit of viral immunisation programmes.

PubMed

West, R R

1999-01-01

Many individual and societal decisions over purchase (or investment) involve consideration of timing, in that either the price may be paid now and the benefit enjoyed some time in the future or the converse the benefit enjoyed now and the price paid later. Since most individuals generally prefer the present to the future, economic theory has conventionally discounted future costs or benefits to estimate 'net present values'. The rationale for this is principally based on future uncertainty. In recent years, economists have turned their attention to valuing health as an economic 'good'. Observations of individual behaviour would imply that individuals discount future health, as other potential benefits, mostly because there is some uncertainty about their futures. Although economic theory is strongly predicated on the 'sovereignty of the individual', it does not necessarily follow that society discounts the future as do individuals, since for society the future is not so uncertain. Society's endorsement of many public health and preventive medicine objectives, which seek health gains in the future (rather than the present), imply that society's rate of discount may be appreciably lower than that of individuals. In immunisation, arguably one of the most effective of preventive measures, there is the additional benefit to others attributable to herd immunity. This paper argues that the future health gains for society arising from immunisation should not be underestimated by application of inappropriate discounting.

Resources and economic growth: the American future--a dialogue. [Debate of geologist, physicist, and systems analyst

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meadows, D.L.; Weinberg, A.M.; Boyd, J.

Geologist James Boyd, physicist Alvin Weinberg, and systems analyst Dennis Meadows participated in a debate at which they forecast the cost and availability of world resources. Highlights of the debate and questions and comments from their audience are presented here. A range of optimism is evident in the predictions. Boyd foresees that energy and resource problems will be solved by technology, while Meadows contends that no solutions are possible until institutional and political constraints are lifted to allow resource development. Weinberg takes a middle view and proposes substitution of new resources for those, like fossil fuels, that are nearing depletion.more » The role of the market system is debated with disagreement over whether energy development should or can respond to a free market--and whether per capita energy consumption will increase or decline with limited economic growth. Policies governing access to fossil fuels and metals in the future are felt to be central to the issue. (DCK)« less

Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bosello, Francesco; Butenschön, Momme; Elliott, Mike; Peck, Myron A.; Pinnegar, John K.

2018-02-01

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

[Human resources planning: the use of demographic-economic models].

PubMed

Daubon, R E

1980-01-01

This article provides an overview of the evolution of employment at different stages of economic development and describes the employment situation in developing countries, suggesting future trends and means of improvement. The lack of authentic development is reflected in the problem of employment of both natural and human resources in Third World countries. Their occupational structures may be examined in 2 periods, 1 in which a certain pretransitional equilibrium was still observed, and the other following the beginning of industrialization. With increased population growth and the application of development strategies favoring urban areas and manufacturing, a series of imbalances were introduced which had as 1 consequence an ever widening income gap between rural areas, cities, and developed countries. Rural stagnation and population pressure ultimately led to massive urban migration in many areas, swelling the cities and creating an "informal sector" of underemployed persons in marginal activities of low productivity. By 2050, the world labor force will have increased from its present 1.7 billion workers to 3.8 billion, of which only 660 million will be in presently developed countries. Each country must plan the best use of its human resources, and must include employment planning in overall development planning. The development of economic-demographic models, adapted to the context of each country, can be a valuable tool in planning. Various types of economic-demographic models and their uses are described and differentiated. Economic-demographic models of employment have 3 main parts, demography, economy, and training. Their use in the analysis of the impact of specific variables on employment, of policies, and of general strategies is described. Finally, the characteristics and uses of MODEMP, an economic-demographic model created for analysis of labor force and employment problems in Peru, are described.

Expeditionary Economics: A Future Resource for Military Planners?

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-17

Monograph: Expeditionary Economics: A Future Resource for Military Planners? Approved by: __________________________________ Monograph Director Matthew J ...creation and elucidates the relationship with the operating environment. For a comprehensive review of this idea, see Antulio J . Echevarria II, The...these principles were derived, see Carl J . Schramm, "Expeditionary Economics: Spurring Growth After Conflicts and Disasters," Foreign Affairs, May

Lifestyles: Past, Present, Future. A Unit to Integrate Economics in the Junior High Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hyler, Eric; Hyler, Linda

Designed as a 4-9 week cumulative unit on economics for junior high school classes, this award-winning program introduces students to the economic bases of past, present, and future American lifestyles. Following introductory information on the authors, rationale, and objectives, a suggested 6-week lesson plan is presented designed to help…

World Economic Growth and Oil: a Producers' Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shihab-Eldin, Adnan

2014-07-01

This paper examines the following assertions: * A high share of oil price in GDP limits economic growth, * Oil Price shocks trigger recession, * These effects will be escalated by peaked oil supply and rising developing world demand and together with increasing contributions to climate change will result in a global emergency. The role of energy in societal development and economic growth, from primitive man through the industrial revolution and the oil age to the present and the evolution of energy intensity are described. The principle role of oil as a transport fuel and the possibilities of alternatives are examined. It is concluded that oil dependence will continue for the foreseeable future. The history of the industry, market behavior and its economic effects are presented to establish precedent and the assertions are then examined. It is shown that rising oil prices are an unavoidable consequence of economic growth, that they have stimulated efficient minimum functional use and made more difficult conventional and unconventional sources economic. It is then argued that potentially these additional resources eliminate the possibility of supply shortage and that diversification of supply lessens the possibility of shock, together rendering a global emergency less likely than could have been previously envisaged.

Health Economics at the Crossroads of Centuries – From the Past to the Future

PubMed Central

Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (Michael); Ogura, Seiritsu

2016-01-01

Health economics, as an interdisciplinary science, has experienced exceptionally bold evolution through the past eight decades. Generations of committed scholars have built up huge body of knowledge and developed a set of methodological tools to assist health-care authorities with resource allocation process. Following its conception at the US National Bureau of Economic Research and Ivy League US Universities, this science has spread across the Globe. It has adapted to a myriad of local conditions and needs of the national health systems with diverse historical legacies, medical services provision, and financing patterns. Challenge of financial sustainability facing modern day health systems remains primarily attributable to population aging, prosperity diseases, large scale migrations, rapid urbanization, and technological innovation in medicine. Despite promising developments in developing countries with emerging BRICS markets on the lead, rising out-of-pocket health spending continues to threaten affordability of medical care. Universal health coverage extension will likely remain serious challenge even for some of the most advanced OECD nations. These complex circumstances create strong drivers for inevitable further development of health economics. We believe that this interdisciplinary health science shall leave long-lasting blue print to be visible for decades to come. PMID:27376055

Health Economics at the Crossroads of Centuries - From the Past to the Future.

PubMed

Jakovljevic, Mihajlo Michael; Ogura, Seiritsu

2016-01-01

Health economics, as an interdisciplinary science, has experienced exceptionally bold evolution through the past eight decades. Generations of committed scholars have built up huge body of knowledge and developed a set of methodological tools to assist health-care authorities with resource allocation process. Following its conception at the US National Bureau of Economic Research and Ivy League US Universities, this science has spread across the Globe. It has adapted to a myriad of local conditions and needs of the national health systems with diverse historical legacies, medical services provision, and financing patterns. Challenge of financial sustainability facing modern day health systems remains primarily attributable to population aging, prosperity diseases, large scale migrations, rapid urbanization, and technological innovation in medicine. Despite promising developments in developing countries with emerging BRICS markets on the lead, rising out-of-pocket health spending continues to threaten affordability of medical care. Universal health coverage extension will likely remain serious challenge even for some of the most advanced OECD nations. These complex circumstances create strong drivers for inevitable further development of health economics. We believe that this interdisciplinary health science shall leave long-lasting blue print to be visible for decades to come.

Urban infrastructure and natural resource flows: evidence from Cape Town.

PubMed

Hyman, Katherine

2013-09-01

The current economic development trajectory is fundamentally unsustainable. However, decoupling economic growth from excessive natural resource consumption can be adopted as a means to deviate from this current trajectory. Decoupling enables economic growth and human development through non-material growth, without the environmental and social casualties of the incumbent model. Cities are the current and future context for socio development as well as a significant part of the cause and solution to sustainability challenges. Cities account for the majority of production and consumption activities leading to environmental degradation, and they are also the primary location for economic, institutional, and human capital. Innovative responses to global challenges generally emerge during the interaction between these kinds of capital. This paper presents the case of three of Cape Town's resource flows namely; electricity, water and solid waste, as mediated by networked urban infrastructure, to demonstrate the possibility of urban scale decoupling. Conclusions indicate that while decoupling can occur at the city scale, it is unlikely to be sufficient for the realization of sustainable urban development. Purposive interventions are therefore critical for successful, sustainable urban transitions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large-scale water projects in the developing world: Revisiting the past and looking to the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivakumar, Bellie; Chen, Ji

2014-05-01

During the past half a century or so, the developing world has been witnessing a significant increase in freshwater demands due to a combination of factors, including population growth, increased food demand, improved living standards, and water quality degradation. Since there exists significant variability in rainfall and river flow in both space and time, large-scale storage and distribution of water has become a key means to meet these increasing demands. In this regard, large dams and water transfer schemes (including river-linking schemes and virtual water trades) have been playing a key role. While the benefits of such large-scale projects in supplying water for domestic, irrigation, industrial, hydropower, recreational, and other uses both in the countries of their development and in other countries are undeniable, concerns on their negative impacts, such as high initial costs and damages to our ecosystems (e.g. river environment and species) and socio-economic fabric (e.g. relocation and socio-economic changes of affected people) have also been increasing in recent years. These have led to serious debates on the role of large-scale water projects in the developing world and on their future, but the often one-sided nature of such debates have inevitably failed to yield fruitful outcomes thus far. The present study aims to offer a far more balanced perspective on this issue. First, it recognizes and emphasizes the need for still additional large-scale water structures in the developing world in the future, due to the continuing increase in water demands, inefficiency in water use (especially in the agricultural sector), and absence of equivalent and reliable alternatives. Next, it reviews a few important success and failure stories of large-scale water projects in the developing world (and in the developed world), in an effort to arrive at a balanced view on the future role of such projects. Then, it discusses some major challenges in future water planning and management, with proper consideration to potential technological developments and new options. Finally, it highlights the urgent need for a broader framework that integrates the physical science-related aspects ("hard sciences") and the human science-related aspects ("soft sciences").

Forecasting the Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease under Climate Change Scenarios in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Background Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. Methods/Principal Findings We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland. PMID:23690959

Techniques for water demand analysis and forecasting: Puerto Rico, a case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Close, E.R.; Lopez, M.A.

1975-01-01

The rapid economic growth of the Commonwealth-of Puerto Rico since 1947 has brought public pressure on Government agencies for rapid development of public water supply and waste treatment facilities. Since 1945 the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority has had the responsibility for planning, developing and operating water supply and waste treatment facilities on a municipal basis. The purpose of this study was to develop operational techniques whereby a planning agency, such as the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority, could project the temporal and spatial distribution of .future water demands. This report is part of a 2-year cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Quality Board of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, for the development of systems analysis techniques for use in water resources planning. While the Commonwealth was assisted in the development of techniques to facilitate ongoing planning, the U.S. Geological Survey attempted to gain insights in order to better interface its data collection efforts with the planning process. The report reviews the institutional structure associated with water resources planning for the Commonwealth. A brief description of alternative water demand forecasting procedures is presented and specific techniques and analyses of Puerto Rico demand data are discussed. Water demand models for a specific area of Puerto Rico are then developed. These models provide a framework for making several sets of water demand forecasts based on alternative economic and demographic assumptions. In the second part of this report, the historical impact of water resources investment on regional economic development is analyzed and related to water demand .forecasting. Conclusions and future data needs are in the last section.

Rewilding in England and Wales: A review of recent developments, issues, and concerns

Treesearch

Steve Carver

2007-01-01

This paper reviews the emerging wild land policy in the United Kingdom-in England and Wales in particular-and the environmental, social, political and economic drivers that make extensive protected wild land areas a possibility in what is otherwise a crowded and intensively developed island nation. Various future scenarios for wild land and rewilding in England and...

Mid-America and Its Future: 1989. Proceedings of a Four-State Economic Development Conference (13th, Shenandoah, Iowa, April 18, 1989).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kobberdahl, Wayne, Comp.

This volume contains summaries of presentations and excerpts from workshops at a conference organized by the Cooperative Extension Services of Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri. The conference brought together community officials and leaders from the four-state area to share experiences and gain new ideas about community development. Topics…

The Cynon Valley Project: Investing in the Future. Early Childhood Development: Practice and Reflections Number 12.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Alain

The Cynon Valley Project in Wales, United Kingdom, used funding from the Save the Children Fund and the Bernard van Leer Foundation to address consequences of economic decline in the two communities of Fernhill and Perthcelyn. The project's focus was on early childhood education and community development. Though starting at about the same time and…

Problems and Prospects of the Development of the Rural School in Russia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gur'ianova, M. P.

2009-01-01

It is well known that to a large extent, it is the young people of today who will determine the intellectual, economic, cultural, and spiritual face of rural Russia in the twenty-first century. Unless young people take part in the modernization of the economy and in its social development, the Russian countryside will not have a future. Among…

Relevance of health economics in breast cancer treatment: integration of economics in the management of breast cancer at the clinic level.

PubMed

Jacobs, Volker R; Bogner, Gerhard; Schausberger, Christiane E; Reitsamer, Roland; Fischer, Thorsten

2013-03-01

Since the introduction of the diagnosis-related groups (DRG) system with cost-related and entity-specific flat-rate reimbursements for all in-patients in 2004 in Germany, economics have become an important focus in medical care, including breast centers. Since then, physicians and hospitals have had to gradually take on more and more financial responsibilities for their medical care to avoid losses for their institutions. Due to financial limitations of resources, most medical services have to be adjusted to correlating revenues, which results in the development of a variety of active measures to understand, steer, and optimize costs, resources and related processes for breast cancer treatment. In this review, the challenging task to implement microeconomic management at the clinic level for breast cancer treatment is analyzed from breast cancer-specific publications. The newly developed economic management perspective is identified for different stakeholders in the healthcare system, and successful microeconomic projects and future aspects are described.

Relevance of Health Economics in Breast Cancer Treatment: Integration of Economics in the Management of Breast Cancer at the Clinic Level

PubMed Central

Jacobs, Volker R.; Bogner, Gerhard; Schausberger, Christiane E.; Reitsamer, Roland; Fischer, Thorsten

2013-01-01

Summary Since the introduction of the diagnosis-related groups (DRG) system with cost-related and entity-specific flat-rate reimbursements for all in-patients in 2004 in Germany, economics have become an important focus in medical care, including breast centers. Since then, physicians and hospitals have had to gradually take on more and more financial responsibilities for their medical care to avoid losses for their institutions. Due to financial limitations of resources, most medical services have to be adjusted to correlating revenues, which results in the development of a variety of active measures to understand, steer, and optimize costs, resources and related processes for breast cancer treatment. In this review, the challenging task to implement microeconomic management at the clinic level for breast cancer treatment is analyzed from breast cancer-specific publications. The newly developed economic management perspective is identified for different stakeholders in the healthcare system, and successful microeconomic projects and future aspects are described. PMID:24715837

Nuclear power grows in China`s energy mix

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xavier

1996-07-01

China`s rapid economic growth in the past two decades has caused the nations`s demand for electricity to exceed its capacity. AS of 1992, with power shortages as high as 25 percent, {open_quotes}power plant operators were often forced to resort to rolling brownouts to avoid complete system breakdowns,{close_quotes} says Xavier Chen, an assistant professor with the Asian Institute of Technology`s Energy Program in Bangkok, Thailand. To keep pace with China`s economic development, Chen estimates that {open_quotes}China must increase its electricity capacity 6 to 8 percent a year each year into the foreseeable future.{close_quotes} For now, coal is transported to power plantsmore » in the rapidly developing eastern coastal provinces at great expense. Chen also notes that the environmental disadvantages of coal make it a less desirable source of energy than nuclear. Development of nuclear energy is likely to go forward for another reason: In China, there is much less opposition to nuclear power plants than in other developing nations. {open_quotes}Nuclear energy likely will plan an important role in China`s future energy mix and help close the gap between electricity production and demand,{close_quotes} Chen says.« less

Evaluating Decoupling Process in OECD Countries: Case Study of Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Şengün Ucal, Meltem; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2017-04-01

Climate change is at the top of the present and future problems facing humanity. Climate change is now largely attributed to human activities and economic activities are the source of human activities that cause climate change by creating pressure on the environment. Providing the sustainability of resources for the future seems possible by reducing the pressure of these economic activities on the environment. Given the increasing population pressure and growth-focused economies, it is possible to say that achieving decoupling is not so easy on a global basis. It is known that there are some problems in developing countries especially in terms of accessing reliable data in transition and implementation process of decoupling. Developed countries' decoupling practices and proper calculation methods can also be a guide for developing countries. In this study, we tried to calculate the comparative decoupling index for OECD countries and Turkey in terms of data suitability, and we showed the differences between them. We tried to indicate the level of decoupling (weak, stable, strong) for each country. We think that the comparison of Turkey can be an example in terms of developing countries. Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Bogazici University Research Fund Grant Number 12220.

Survey of synfuel technology for lignite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sondreal, E.A.

1982-01-01

The most important market for lignite will continue to be the electric utility industry, where it is used to fuel large pc-fired boilers serving major regional power grids. However, the growth of this market and thechnology is being challenged by new and more stringent environmental control requirements, including the international concern over acid rain. Environmental and economic issues could either encourage or limit the development of a synfuels market for lignite depending on the cost effectiveness of the technological solutions that are developed. Clearly the United States needs to develop its coal resources to reduce dependence on imported oil. However,more » demand for coal derived substitute petroleum will be constrained by cost for the forseeable future. Government policy initiatives and new technology will be the keys to removing these constraints in the decades ahead. A crossover point with respect to petroleum and natural gas will be reached at some point in the future, which will allow synthetic fuels to penetrate the markets now served by oil and gas. Those of us who are today concerned with the development of lignite resources can look forward to participating in the major synfuels market that will emerge when those economic conditions are realized.« less

Hospital information management system: an evolutionary knowledge management perspective.

PubMed

Wadhwa, S; Saxena, Avneet; Wadhwa, Bharat

2007-01-01

The evolving paradigm shift resulting from IT, social and technological changes has created a need for developing an innovative knowledge-based healthcare system, which can effectively meet global healthcare system demands and also cater to future trends. The Hospital Information Management System (HIMS) is developed with this sole aim in mind, which helps in processing and management of hospital information not only inside the boundary, but also beyond the hospital boundary, e.g., telemedicine or e-healthcare. The purpose of this paper is to present such kind of functional HIMS, which can efficiently satisfy the current and future system requirements by using Knowledge Management (KM) and data management systems. The HIMS is developed in a KM context, wherein users can share and use the knowledge more effectively. The proposed system is fully compatible with future technical, social, managerial and economical requirements.

Training as a Component of the Consulting Contract: A Report from the Conference on Environment and Development: The Future for Consulting Firms, December 7-8, 1982, Houston, Texas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carpenter, Richard A.; Dixon, John A.

1984-01-01

Expatriate consultants are employed in developing countries to perform assessments of the consequences to natural resources and the environment of projects for economic development. In addition, a training component can be added during the course of consultancies. Some of the barriers to successful training are identified and explored. (Author/JN)

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied including: qualitative methods such as interviews, group discussions and fuzzy cognitive mapping to identify land use/cover change processes, their driving forces and possible consequences, and final scenario generation; and geospatial methods such as GIS, geostatistics and environmental modeling in an environment for geoprocessing objects (Dinamica EGO) for spatial allocation of these scenarios. The methods were applied in the Italian Alps and the Romanian Carpathians. Both are mountainous areas, however they differ in terms of past and most likely future socio-economic development, and therefore consequent land use/cover changes. Whereas we focused on urban expansion due to tourism development in the Alps, we focused on possible deforestation trajectories in the Carpathians. In both areas, the recognized most significant driving forces were either not covered by accessible data, or were characterized as intangible. With the proposed framework we were able to generate futures scenarios despite these shortcomings, and enabling the transferability of the method.

Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

2005-09-01

In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model studies of the effects of these emissions on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on climate. The developed scenarios are suitable for use as input for chemical transport models (CTMs) and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs).

Past and future water conflicts in the Upper Klamath Basin: An economic appraisal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehlert, Brent B.; Jaeger, William K.

2010-10-01

The water conflict in the Upper Klamath Basin typifies the growing competition between agricultural and environmental water uses. In 2001, drought conditions triggered Endangered Species Act-related requirements that curtailed irrigation diversions to the Klamath Reclamation Project, costing irrigators tens of millions of dollars. Although this event has significantly elevated the perceived risk of future economic catastrophe in the basin (and therefore the level of conflict among water users), several key changes related to water availability have occurred since 2001. These changes include reduced ESA requirements and increased groundwater pumping capacity, which have lowered the actual risk and severity of future water shortages. In this paper, we use a mathematical programming model to evaluate how these changes alter the likelihood and economic consequences of future shortages. We also consider the effect of more flexible transfers among irrigators via water markets. Our analysis indicates that future drought conditions like those seen in 2001 would have more modest economic impacts than in 2001 and that when combined with contingent groundwater supplementation and water transfer mechanisms such as water markets, both the likelihood and magnitude of economic losses among irrigators would be greatly reduced.

Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Syud A.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.

2009-07-01

Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries. With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future, informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase poverty across our developing country sample—particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia, and Africa—with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.

Risk and Protective Processes Predicting Rural African American Young Men's Substance Abuse.

PubMed

Cho, Junhan; Kogan, Steven M

2016-12-01

Informed by a life course perspective, this study tested a cascade model linking harsh, unresponsive parenting during childhood to young African American men's substance abuse via precocious transitions, economic instability, and future orientation. The moderating influence of community disadvantage and romantic partner support on the hypothesized pathways was also examined. At the baseline, the sample included 505 African American men between ages 19 and 22 years from high-poverty rural communities. Follow-up data were collected 18 months after baseline. Using structural equation modeling, we identified harsh, unresponsive parenting influenced precocious transitions in adolescence, which in turn increased economic instability during young adulthood. Economic instability was associated with a reduction in future orientation, a proximal influence on increases in substance abuse. Also, residence in a disadvantaged community amplified the influence of precocious transitions on economic instability and the influence of economic instability on future orientation. Involvement with supportive romantic partnership evinced a protective effect, attenuating the influence of precocious transitions on economic instability and the influence of economic instability on a future orientation. This study expands understanding of young adults' substance abuse by demonstrating the risk and protective processes linking substance abuse to developmental factors across childhood, adolescence, and young adulthood. © Society for Community Research and Action 2016.

Industrial ecology: Quantitative methods for exploring a lower carbon future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Valerie M.

2015-03-01

Quantitative methods for environmental and cost analyses of energy, industrial, and infrastructure systems are briefly introduced and surveyed, with the aim of encouraging broader utilization and development of quantitative methods in sustainable energy research. Material and energy flow analyses can provide an overall system overview. The methods of engineering economics and cost benefit analysis, such as net present values, are the most straightforward approach for evaluating investment options, with the levelized cost of energy being a widely used metric in electricity analyses. Environmental lifecycle assessment has been extensively developed, with both detailed process-based and comprehensive input-output approaches available. Optimization methods provide an opportunity to go beyond engineering economics to develop detailed least-cost or least-impact combinations of many different choices.

Optical MEMS: past, present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramani, Chandra Mouli

2005-09-01

Spurred by the growth of the internet, Optical Telecommunications bandwidth, experienced unprecedented growth during late 1990's. During this time of great economic expansion, the creation of new enterprises was vast and the expansion of established component, system and services companies was breathtaking. Unfortunately, this positive economic state was short-lived. This period was followed in 2001-2004 by one of the most significant market crashes in history. During those 10 years of economic growth, about $20B in venture capital was invested in the optical telecom industry, most of this investment was lost in recent years. Many start-up industries which experienced unprecedented growth at the end of the 20th century were lost at the start of the 21st. (1) During this time many, innovative technologies were born and buried. However, many new capabilities emerged from this period of unrest; one such example is the advent of Optical MEMS (MOEMS). Many academics and corporate laboratories pursued the development of MOEMS during the economic boom and, in the author's view; MOEMS surfaced as a powerful and versatile tool set that has proved invaluable and in the last few years during economic downturn, stood the test of time. In the Telecommunications industry, for optical switching and wavelength management applications MOEMS has proven to be the technology of choice. (2) Variable Optical Attenuators (VOA), Wavelength Blockers (WB), Dynamic Gain Equalizers (DGE), and most recently Wavelength Selective Switches (WSS) are being used in the numerous recent network deployments. Moreover, agile networks of the future will have MOEMS at every node. This presentation will provide an overview of the history of MOEMS in Telecommunications, discuss its byproducts and offer a window into the future of the technology.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George

2017-07-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system--demonstrated here--are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE PAGES

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; ...

2017-06-12

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Recent trends in automobile recycling: An energy and economic assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curlee, T.R.; Das, S.; Rizy, C.G.

1994-03-01

Recent and anticipated trends in the material composition of domestic and imported automobiles and the increasing cost of landfilling the non-recyclable portion of automobiles (automobile shredder residue or ASR) pose questions about the future of automobile recycling. This report documents the findings of a study sponsored by the US Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Analysis to examine the impacts of these and other relevant trends on the life-cycle energy consumption of automobiles and on the economic viability of the domestic automobile recycling industry. More specifically, the study (1) reviewed the status of the automobile recycling industry in the Unitedmore » States, including the current technologies used to process scrapped automobiles and the challenges facing the automobile recycling industry; (2) examined the current status and future trends of automobile recycling in Europe and Japan, with the objectives of identifying ``lessons learned`` and pinpointing differences between those areas and the United States; (3) developed estimates of the energy system impacts of the recycling status quo and projections of the probable energy impacts of alternative technical and institutional approaches to recycling; and (4) identified the key policy questions that will determine the future economic viability of automobile shredder facilities in the United States.« less

Perspective On Income Security and Social Services and An Agenda for Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-08-13

economic stability of America and the continued viability of the U.S. social system. This report provides a prespective on many of the major issues, identifies present concerns, forecasts future developments, and briefly discusses GAO’s approach to addressing these issues.

University-industry interaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hastings, Daniel E.

1990-01-01

It is posited that university industry interaction is highly desirable from the viewpoint of the long term economic development of the country as well as being desirable for the Space Grant Programs. The present and future possible interactions are reviewed for the three university levels namely, undergraduate, graduate, and faculty research.

Federal Investment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Sheila; Tawil, Natalie

2013-01-01

The federal government pays for a wide range of goods and services that are expected to be useful some years in the future. Those purchases, called investment, fall into three categories: physical capital, research and development (R&D), and education and training. There are several economic rationales for federal investment. It can provide…

Educating for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlisle, E. R.

1988-01-01

Recent economic data suggest that trends occurring in the U.S. and other global economies will force even greater changes upon our educational system. To help educators prepare students for tomorrow's work force, this article discusses and clarifies some current developments in technology, job and education requirements, and U.S. productivity…

Looking Forward to the 21st Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunham, Daniel B.

1986-01-01

Discusses the changes in (1) education and human resources, (2) agriculture and natural resources, (3) government and taxation, (4) communication and transportation, and (5) jobs and economic development that will affect vocational education and the role of the American Vocational Association (AVA) in the near future. (CH)

Wind energy developments in the 20th century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vargo, D. J.

1974-01-01

Wind turbine systems of the past are reviewed and wind energy is reexamined as a future source of power. Various phases and objectives of the Wind Energy Program are discussed. Conclusions indicate that wind generated energy must be considered economically competitive with other power production methods.

PISA 2006 Technical Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

OECD Publishing (NJ1), 2009

2009-01-01

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD's) Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) surveys, which take place every three years, have been designed to collect information about 15-year-old students in participating countries. PISA examines how well students are prepared to meet the challenges of the future,…

Workforce 2000. A Bibliography.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Florida State Univ., Tallahassee. Center for Instructional Development and Services.

This bibliography contains citations locating information about the future U.S. work force. Because of demographic, economic, and technological developments, significant changes are predicted in both the nature of work and the composition of the work force by the year 2000. Projections, viewpoints, and suggested responses to these changes from…

Societal Development and Social Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nderu-Boddington, Eulalee

2008-01-01

This article compares and contrasts the theories of three major writers on societal change: Chirot discusses the economic power struggles within and among core, peripheral, and semiperipheral societies, Toffler exposes a future in which major power shifts could have cataclysmic results, and Bruner emphasizes the importance of education to temper…

Better utilization of low-grade woods

Treesearch

Peter Koch

1957-01-01

The objective of this paper is threefold: to outline briefly some of the avenues of approach so far employed in utilizing low-grade wood, to comment on the economic aspects of the problem, and finally, to speculate about what developments the future might bring to the field of utilization.

Developing Stem Talent among Diverse Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Julia Link

2014-01-01

Currently, the U.S. is not stacking up in educating students in STEM disciplines. "America lags in providing top-level schooling in STEM fields…, and this may jeopardize future economic growth, job creation, and international competitiveness" (Smarick, 2013, p. 12). International assessments of student performance, including the Program…

New ecology education: Preparing students for the complex human-environmental problems of dryland East Asia

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Present-day environmental problems of Dryland East Asia are serious, and future prospects look especially disconcerting owing to current trends in population growth and economic development. Land degradation and desertification, invasive species, biodiversity losses, toxic waste and air pollution, a...

Technical Note: Ethical Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blodgett, J.

Ethical economics is inspirational, expanding our vision beyond the narrow self-interest of the theoretical economic man. Ethical economics sees more value in space settlement than conventional economic calculations that can inappropriately discount the value of the future.

Emergy analysis of an industrial park: the case of Dalian, China.

PubMed

Geng, Yong; Zhang, Pan; Ulgiati, Sergio; Sarkis, Joseph

2010-10-15

With the rapid development of eco-industrial park projects in China, evaluating their overall eco-efficiency is becoming an important need and a big challenge academically. Developing ecologically conscious industrial park management requires analysis of both industrial and ecological systems. Traditional evaluation methods based on neoclassical economics and embodied energy and exergy analyses have certain limitations due to their focus with environmental issues considered secondary to the maximization of economic and technical objectives. Such methods focus primarily on the environmental impact of emissions and their economic consequences. These approaches ignore the contribution of ecological products and services as well as the load placed on environmental systems and related problems of carrying capacity of economic and industrial development. This paper presents a new method, based upon emergy analysis and synthesis. Such a method links economic and ecological systems together, highlighting the internal relations among the different subsystems and components. The emergy-based method provides insight into the environmental performance and sustainability of an industrial park. This paper depicts the methodology of emergy analysis at the industrial park level and provides a series of emergy-based indices. A case study is investigated and discussed in order to show the emergy method's practical potential. Results from DEDZ (Dalian Economic Development Zone) case show us the potential of emergy synthesis method at the industrial park level for environmental policy making. Its advantages and limitations are also discussed with avenues for future research identified. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Medan City: Informality and the Historical Global City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudarmadji, N.; Tyaghita, B.; Astuti, P. T.; Etleen, D.

2018-05-01

As projected by UN that two-thirds of Indonesia’s population will live in urban areas by 2050, rapid urbanization is happening in Indonesian cities. Initial research on eight Indonesian Cities (which includes Medan, Jatinegara, Bandung, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Balikpapan, and Manado) by Tunas Nusa Foundation since 2012 shows that urbanization of each city has happened throughout history creating cultural, economic, and environmental networks that are distinct from one city to another. While the networks remain until today and continuously shapes the urban agglomeration pattern, not all parts of the city could undergo subsequent development that confirms the existing pattern, leading to the creation informality. Nor could it make future planning that comprehends the nature of its integrated urban dynamic beyond its current administrative authority. In this paper, we would like to share our study for Medan, North Sumatra as it shows a portrait of a city with a long relationship to a global network since the Maritime trade era. Medan has become home to many ethnic groups which have sailed and migrated as part of a global economic agenda creating a strong economic network between port cities along the Malacca Strait. The city has kept its role in the global economic network until today, to name a few, becoming the frontier for the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle. While we celebrate Medan’s potential to become a global city with major infrastructure development as well as cultural assets as its advantage in the future, we argue that microscale cohesion supported by government policy in agreed planning documents are fundamental for the city to thrive amidst the challenges it is facing. Yet, these cultural assets, as well as micro scale cohesion in Medan City today, are still undermined. Thus, informality in Medan exists as result of ignorance and marginalization of certain socio-cultural groups, abandoning places and identity, as well as the marginalization of small economic and transactions. The hypothesis is that the informality within an urban network and the agglomeration pattern in Medan today are evidence of external stimulation in combination with limited micro scale cohesion built throughout history. Using historical timeline analysis, we would like to identify the informality in an urban network and its relation to history. The aim is to understand the fabric of Medan city made by the trans-cultural-economical and environmental network. This study is expected to give the foundation of Medan’s character as the basis of her peoples’ livelihood and for a better planning/development in the future.

Maintaining technical excellence requires a national plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidson, T. F.

1991-01-01

To meet the challenge of technical excellence, AIA established a rocket propulsion committee to develop the National Rocket Propulsion Strategic Plan. Developing such a plan required a broad spectrum of experience and disciplines. The Strategic Plan team needed the participation of industry, government, and academia. The plan provides, if followed, a means for the U.S. to maintain technical excellence and world leadership in rocket propulsion. To implement the National Rocket Propulsion Strategic Plan is to invest in the social, economic, and technological futures of America. The plan lays the basis for upgrading existing propulsion systems and a firm base for future full scale development, production, and operation of rocket propulsion systems for space, defense, and commercial applications.

Current Situation and Future Prospects for Global Beef Production: Overview of Special Issue.

PubMed

Smith, Stephen B; Gotoh, Takafumi; Greenwood, Paul L

2018-05-31

The demand for beef as a protein source is increasing worldwide, although in most countries beef accounts for considerably less than half of total meat consumption. Beef also provides a highly desirable eating experience in developed countries and, increasingly, in developing countries. The sustainability of beef production has different meanings in the various geographical and socio-economic regions of the world. Natural resources including land mass and uses, rainfall and access to livestock feed, and the robustness of the economy are major determinants of the perception of beef sustainability. In this overview of the 2016 International Symposium on "Future Beef in Asia" and this subsequent Special Edition of the Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences on "Current Situation and Future Prospects for Global Beef Production", the contributions have been grouped into the following categories: Countries in Southeast Asia; Europe; and Countries producing highly marbled beef for export and/or domestic consumption. They also include reference to Special Topics including marbled beef production, and use of "omics" technologies to enhance beef quality assurance. Among these broad categories, notable differences exist across countries in the production and marketing of beef. These reflect differences in factors including natural resource availability and climate, population size, traditional culture and degree of economic development including industrial and technological developments. We trust that the International Symposium and this Special Edition on Current Situation and Future Prospects for Global Beef Production, the contents of which that are briefly summarized in this paper, will serve as a valuable resource for the livestock industries, researchers and students with an interest in enhancing the prospects for sustainable, efficient beef production that satisfies the growing size and complexity of consumer demands and markets for beef.

Futures Symposium. Youth, Work & Economic Productivity: Wisconsin at Risk? Parker Project Number 7. Bulletin No. 4413.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oinonen, Charlotte M.

These proceedings consist of the texts of papers and panel discussions presented at a Parker Project-sponsored futures symposium on youth, work, economic productivity, and the challenges facing Wisconsin's secondary schools in providing job training for the future. Addressed in the individual presentations included in this volume are the…

Overview of past, present and future marine power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morsy El-Gohary, M.

2013-06-01

In efforts to overcome an foreseeable energy crisis predicated on limited oil and gas supplies, reserves; economic variations facing the world, and of course the environmental side effects of fossil fuels, an urgent need for energy sources that provide sustainable, safe and economic supplies for the world is imperative. The current fossil fuel energy system must be improved to ensure a better and cleaner transportation future for the world. Despite the fact that the marine transportation sector consumes only 5% of global petroleum production; it is responsible for 15% of the world NO x and SO x emissions. These figures must be the engine that powers the scientific research worldwide to develop new solutions for a very old energy problem. In this paper, the most effective types of marine power plants were discussed. The history of the development of each type was presented first and the technical aspects were discussed second. Also, the fuel cells as a new type of power plants used in marine sector were briefed to give a complete overview of the past, present and future of the marine power plants development. Based on the increased worldwide concerns regarding harmful emissions, many researchers have introduced solutions to this problem, including the adoption of new cleaner fuels. This paper was guided using the same trend and by implementing the hydrogen as fuel for marine internal combustion engine, gas turbines, and fuel cells.

Predicted avian responses to bioenergy development scenarios in an intensive agricultural landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; McCoy, Tim D.; Guan, Qingfeng

2015-01-01

Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize (Zea mays) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.

Economic evaluation of preventive dental programs: what can they tell us?

PubMed

Morgan, Mike; Mariño, Rodrigo; Wright, Clive; Bailey, Denise; Hopcraft, Matthew

2012-10-01

The role of public health program planners is to determine the effectiveness of public health programs, what recommendations should be made, what future initiatives should be taken, and what policies should be developed. At a basic level, to choose between competing alternatives, two characteristics of an intervention must be considered; these are its outcome and its cost. Based on cost and outcome, planners must select the option that offers the most advantages. Economic evaluation is commonly adopted by decision makers in the health sector to investigate the effectiveness of public health programs and to help plan future initiatives. Economic evaluation assists decision makers who must weigh the information it provides in the context of many and often competing options. In this way, an economic evaluation is an aid to decision making rather than the decision itself. Economic evaluation is becoming essential for informed decision making, with potential implications for public health policy and practice and for clinical practice too. While economic evaluations are commonly used in decision-making processes about health programs, few examples exist in the oral health literature. In the case of preventive oral health programs, economic analysis is often difficult, largely because it makes demands on epidemiological and demographic data that are hard to meet. This study will address the concepts and tools required to conduct economic evaluations of prevention programs. The emphasis will be on oral health and preventive dental programs, although the concepts presented could be useful for other public health programs by practitioners and managers with the aim of producing effective and efficient oral health programs. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Economic Growth and Landscape Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prato, Tony; Fagre, Dan

2007-01-01

Sustaining Rocky Mountain Landscapes provides a scientific basis for communities to develop policies for managing the growth and economic transformation of the CCE without sacrificing the quality of life and environment for which the land is renowned. This forthcoming edited volume focuses on five aspects of sustaining mountain landscapes in the CCE and similar regions in the Rocky Mountains. The five aspects are: 1) how social, economic, demographic and environmental forces are transforming ecosystem structure and function, 2) trends in use and conditions for human and environmental resources, 3) activating science, policy and education to enhance sustainable landscape management, 4) challenges to sustainable management of public and private lands, and 5) future prospects for achieving sustainable landscapes.

Sociology, economics, and gender: can knowledge of the past contribute to a better future?

PubMed

Nelson, Julie A

2010-01-01

This article explores the profoundly gendered nature of the split between the disciplines of economics and sociology that took place in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, emphasizing implications for current efforts to bring the fields more closely together. Drawing on historical documents and feminist studies of science, it investigates the gendered processes underlying the divergence of the disciplines in definition, method, and degree of engagement with social problems. The recently developed field of economic sociology and other efforts to bridge the disciplinary gap have the potential to heal this disciplinary split, if they are broadened, deepened, and made wiser and more self-reflective through the use of feminist analysis.

Current Challenges in Health Economic Modeling of Cancer Therapies: A Research Inquiry

PubMed Central

Miller, Jeffrey D.; Foley, Kathleen A.; Russell, Mason W.

2014-01-01

Background The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. Objectives We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Methods Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. Discussion There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Conclusion Complex technical and data availability issues with oncology economic modeling pose serious concerns that need to be addressed. It is our hope that this article will provide a framework to guide future discourse on this important topic. PMID:24991399

Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

PubMed

Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

2014-05-01

The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and data availability issues with oncology economic modeling pose serious concerns that need to be addressed. It is our hope that this article will provide a framework to guide future discourse on this important topic.

Promoting Positive Future Expectations During Adolescence: The Role of Assets.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Pierce, Jennifer

2015-12-01

Positive future expectations can facilitate optimal development and contribute to healthier outcomes for youth. Researchers suggest that internal resources and community-level factors may influence adolescent future expectations, yet little is known about the processes through which these benefits are conferred. The present study examined the relationship between contribution to community, neighborhood collective efficacy, purpose, hope and future expectations, and tested a mediation model that linked contribution to community and collective efficacy with future expectations through purpose and hope in a sample of 7th grade youth (N = 196; Mage = 12.39; 60 % female; 40 % African American; 71 % economically disadvantaged). Greater collective efficacy and contribution to community predicted higher levels of hope and purpose. Higher levels of hope and purpose predicted more positive future expectations. Contribution to community and neighborhood collective efficacy indirectly predicted future expectations via hope. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Promoting Positive Future Expectations during Adolescence: The Role of Assets

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Sarah A.; Pierce, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Positive future expectations can facilitate optimal development and contribute to healthier outcomes for youth. Researchers suggest that internal resources and community-level factors may influence adolescent future expectations, yet little is known about the processes through which these benefits are conferred. The present study examined the relationship between contribution to community, neighborhood collective efficacy, purpose, hope and future expectations, and tested a mediation model that linked contribution to community and collective efficacy with future expectations through purpose and hope in a sample of 7th grade youth (N = 196; Mage = 12.39; 60% female; 40% African American; 71% economically disadvantaged). Greater collective efficacy and contribution to community predicted higher levels of hope and purpose. Higher levels of hope and purpose predicted more positive future expectations. Contribution to community and neighborhood collective efficacy indirectly predicted future expectations via hope. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:26385095

Impact of acid precipitation on recreation and tourism in Ontario: an overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The impacts of acid precipitation on fishing opportunities, waterfowl and moose hunting, water contact activities, and the perception of the environment in Ontario are analyzed. Economic effects and future research needs are also estimated and discussed. These questions have been examined by identifying the likely links between acidic precipitation and recreation and tourism, by developing estimates of the importance of aquatic-based recreation and tourism, by describing the current and estimated future effects of acid precipitation. 101 references, 9 figures, 19 tables.

Implications of human trafficking in Asia: a scoping review of aftercare initiatives centered on economic development.

PubMed

Camp, Meghan A; Barner, John R; Okech, David

2018-01-01

The trafficking of persons is one of the most egregious violations of human rights in modern society. Given the disproportionate effects across demographic categories of age and gender, as well as concentrated impacts within the developing world, there is a strong need for research and literature on program effectiveness and appropriate aftercare efforts for those persons whose lives and livelihoods have been impacted by trafficking. The purpose of this article is to provide a scoping review of what is known about effectively helping survivors of human trafficking experiencing lack of economic opportunity and the implications for practice and future research regarding the absence of literature. From over 14,000 initial search results, this article focuses on those initiatives (N = 16) that support economic development of the individual or family after being trafficked. Implications arising from the review for trafficking policy, areas for further research, and implications for practitioners are highlighted and discussed.

Knowing "Now," Learning Futures. The Politics and Knowledge Practices of Vocational Education and Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Butler, Elaine

2000-01-01

Critically examines the emerging dominance of vocationalism in education, supported by discourses of globalization and the "Risk Society." Analyzes "knowledge games" in vocational education and practices that seek to train workers to perform as economic/productive units in the marketplace. Urges development of creative,…

The Forces Restructuring Our Future and Outdoor Recreation: Transcription of Keynote Speech.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feather, Frank

This futurist keynote speech of the National Conference for Outdoor Leaders addresses the social, technological, economic, and political forces that are restructuring the world. The concept of geostrategic thinking has the components of global thinking, futuristic thinking, and seeking opportunities. Important developments include: (1) wealth will…

RosBREED2: Progress and future plans to enable DNA-informed breeding in the Rosaceae

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rosaceous crops provide vital contributions to human health and are economically significant in communities across the U.S. Industry stakeholders have given high priority to development of new cultivars that exhibit disease resistance and superior horticultural quality to mitigate production, handli...

A School of the Future...Today.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lincoln County School of Technology, Lincolnton, NC.

In an attempt to improve vocational education in Lincoln County, North Carolina, the Lincoln County School of Technology (LCST) was established by a partnership between a local foundation, the county Economic Development Commission, and the local community college, Gaston College. LCST is a magnet school, providing technical classes to local high…

Toward 2000. Trends Report II: Elementary-Secondary Projections.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Press, Harold L.

Comprehensive, systematic planning provides the overall direction for education through the development of policies and objectives. An understanding of demographic, social, and economic trends is necessary for educators to make decisions for the future. The 1986 demographic forecasts for the province of Newfoundland are updated in this report,…

Economics, Test Scores, New President behind Legislative Changes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Sherry Freeland, Ed.

2001-01-01

This document is comprised of one issue of the "State Education Leader," published by the Education Commission of the States, an organization that helps state leaders identify, develop, and implement public policy for education that addresses current and future needs of a learning society. This newsletter issue focuses on the activities…

Research Training--Present & Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

In 10 papers by independent experts, this volume explores the trends in and prospects for research training in member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. "Problems and Prospects of Research Training in the 1990s" (Stuart Blume) looks at trends in national policy toward research training and issues of…

The Career Advancement Portfolio. Advancement for Low-Wage Workers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jobs for the Future, 2006

2006-01-01

Jobs for the Future created the "Career Advancement Portfolio" as central to its commitment to developing, implementing, and advocating for models, strategies, and policies that enable adults to advance toward economic self-sufficiency for themselves and their families. The "Portfolio" brings together the most innovative workforce development…

Executive Values, Executive Functions, and the Humanities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pichler, Joseph A.

The benefits of studying the humanities to the business executive are considered. The humanities can help develop both the values and functional skills that are necessary for executive success. Competence in value analysis helps future executives to understand the full implications of the economic system, especially when it is followed by the…

The Architectural Heritage: A Market Under Construction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalck, Paul; Pillemont, Jacques

2002-01-01

From preservation of historical monuments to repair of existing buildings, architectural heritage seems to be a market with a future for France's building industry. The public's enthusiasm, along with greater appreciation of the "value" of cultural goods and their integration into a framework of economic development offer a favorable…

Powder River outlook stays healthy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stremel, K.

1984-08-01

Well drilling activity in Wyoming's Powder River Basin is discussed. Operators are taking advantage of favorable economic advantages to tap the area's multiple pay potential and challenge its high success rate reputation. A significant amount of exploration and development can be expected in the future due to the recent discovery of high-flowing wells.

76 FR 18517 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Survey: Expenditures Incurred by Recipients of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-04

... Request; Survey: Expenditures Incurred by Recipients of Biomedical Research and Development Awards From... research budget and analyzing future NIH programs. A survey of award recipient entities is currently the... CONTACT: Steven Payson, Chief of Research, Government Division (BE-57), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S...

A Language Challenge to the Hispanic American.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nino, Miguel A.

The Hispanic-American, because he or she is bilingual and bicultural, could play an important role in the future economic development of the United States. Declines in steel, automotive, and electronics industries due to foreign competition and market saturation have caused industrial displacement and unemployment. The Maquiladora or Twin Plant…

The Higher Education Enterprise.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ottinger, Cecilia A.

1991-01-01

Higher education not only contributes to the development of the human resources and intellectual betterment of the nation but is also a major economic enterprise. This research brief reviews and highlights data on the size and growth of higher education and illustrates how higher education institutions are preparing the future labor force. It…

Programs/Plans for the 21st Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

COMBASE, Stockton, CA.

This collection of brief program descriptions focuses on the efforts of 10 community colleges to meet the current and future needs of their communities in the areas of economic development, worker training and retraining, and literacy education. The 10 colleges highlighted are: (1) Central Arizona College, which offers a highway maintenance worker…

Hydraulic Fracturing and Drinking Water Resources: Update on EPA Hydraulic Fracturing Study

EPA Science Inventory

Natural gas plays a key role in our nation's energy future and the process known as hydraulic fracturing (HF) is one way of accessing that resource. Over the past few years, several key technical, economic, and energy developments have spurred increased use of HF for gas extracti...

Mapping the Future: Young People and Career Guidance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

St. John-Brooks, Caroline

This report examines the strengths and weaknesses of educational and career guidance in seven Organisation for Economic Development (OECD) countries. Chapter 1 defines educational and career guidance as embracing three key elements: educational, career, and personal/social guidance. Described in chapter 2 is the role of educational and career…

Interpreting energy scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

A sustainable approach to empower the bio-based future ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

An economically viable and environmentally benign continuous flow intensified process has been developed to demonstrate the ability to upgrade biomass into potential biofuels, solvents, and pharmaceutical feedstocks using a bimetallic AgPd@g-C3N4 catalyst. Prepared for submission to Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC) journal, Green Chemistry.

Museum-University Partnerships Transform Teenagers' Futures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rose, Sarah W.

2016-01-01

The New Bedford Whaling Museum's High School Apprenticeship Program assists economically disadvantaged New Bedford-area high school students to achieve success in high school and post-secondary education. The museum developed the program as a direct response to low high school graduation rates in New Bedford, one of Massachusetts' poorest cities.…

Peruvian Higher Education: Expansions Amid Economic Crisis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Post, David

1991-01-01

Development of the Peruvian university system is described, focusing on periods of rapid expansion. Enrollment declines in 1974-78 are analyzed in the context of the educational reform program of the military government. The 1983 new university law, following return to civilian government, and future prospects for higher education are discussed.…

The Future of Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minic, Branka; Varney, Rich

2005-01-01

Manpower, a global employment services company with operations in over 67 countries, engages every day with the economic and business trends that are reshaping enterprises worldwide. As a partner in workforce development projects, Manpower has also seen the impact of these trends on the design of effective training and employment initiatives for…

What Is the Role of the Public Library?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shubert, Joseph F.

Changes in today's technology make it necessary for library administrators to look anew at the role, the mission, and the future of the public library. Economic development and education strategists recognize three types of rural communities--rural poor, traditional middle America, and communities in transition--each with different values,…

[The fear of numbers or the challenge of population growth?].

PubMed

Loriaux, M

1991-12-01

Africa, currently one of the least densely populated continents, is growing so rapidly that its population will comprise some 1.5 billion inhabitants around 2020, and Africans will be more numerous than the population of the developed world. Attitudes about Africa's population size vary widely; many educated Africans believe that low density is a greater disadvantage than overpopulation, but most specialists believe the population of the developing world, and of Africa especially, to be too large, the prospects of significant voluntary reduction are dim. The rate of population growth has thus attracted attention as a factor amenable to modification. Africa's demographic transition remains largely in the future. Its case is unique because of the rate of demographic growth and because the phase of rapid growth will apparently continue far longer in Africa than in any other continent. The widening gap between population growth rates and rates of economic development in Africa inspires great pessimism about the future wellbeing of the population. Population officials urge that demographic growth be slowed in order to reduce pressure on economic and ecological resources and to gain time for social and economic development. But despite the consensus of international organizations, such as the UN Fund for Population, on the desirability of slowing population growth to encourage and permit economic growth, there has actually been relatively little progress since the time of Malthus in understanding the relationship between population, development, and the environment. Some recent works suggest that demographic growth has benefits as well as disadvantages, and the net impact on development is uncertain. Demographic pressure is in this view a far more potent force for innovation than is usually recognized. Population is not just an exogenous variable in development, but it is at the heart of the process. There can be no true integration of population into development until the value of human resources everywhere is reaffirmed. The recognition by international organizations that per capita income or other economic indicators alone are not adequate measures of progress is a favorable sign. The failure of structural adjustment programs to attain their stated goals and the new resolve to lessen their effects on the most vulnerable population sectors are also promising. New orientations toward development in which human resources are given greater prominence may be as ideologically inspired as those they replaced, but they have the merit of greater neutrality concerning the content and form of development and they do not accept the process of development in the West as their sole reference.

Handbook of dehumidification technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brundrett, G.W.

1987-01-01

This book shows how dehumidification can alleviate environmental problems in human and industrial spheres which carry major cost implications. The applications of dehumidification, sorbent, air cycle and refrigerant are outlined but the main emphasis is placed on the refrigerant cycle because its applications and product range are the most extensive. A more detailed review of the main applications and opportunities such as housing condensation problems, protection and control in industry and energy saving for swimming pools then follows. Specialist sections on food and flowers and the drying of pressurized gases precede chapters on future developments, economic aspects and a usefulmore » list of further information sources including active research centres. The Contents discussed are: Introduction . Principles . Design considerations for refrigerant dehumidifiers . Domestic applications and dehumidifiers . Swimming pools . Industrial dehumidification . Food and flowers . Drying high pressure gases . Future trends . Economics . Further sources of information.« less

Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, J. F.

2016-12-01

Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative: Facing the Challenges of Global Change in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, P. Y.; Gulev, S.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Qi, J.

2015-12-01

During the past 10 years, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) - an interdisciplinary program of internationally-supported Earth systems and science research - has addressed large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and their impact on the Global Earth system. With more than 1480 peer-reviewed journal publications and 40 books to its credit, NEESPI's activities resulted in significant scientific outreach. This created a new research realm through self-organization of NEESPI scientists in a broad research network, accumulation of knowledge while developing new tools (observations, models, and collaborative networks) and producing new, exciting results that can be applied to directly support decision-making for societal needs. This realm was summed up at the Synthesis NEESPI Workshop in Prague, Czech Republic (April 9-12, 2015) where it was decided to shift gradually the foci of regional studies in Northern Eurasia towards applications with the following major Science Question: " What dynamic and interactive change(s) will affect societal well-being, activities, and health, and what might be the mitigation and adaptation strategies that could support sustainable development and decision-making activities in Northern Eurasia?". To answer this question requires a stronger socio-economic component in the ongoing and future regional studies focused on sustainable societal development under changing climatic and environmental conditions, especially, under conditions when societal decision-making impacts and feeds back on the environment. This made the NEESPI studies closer to the ICSU research initiative "Future Earth". Accordingly, the NEESPI Research Team decided to reorganize in the nearest future NEESPI into "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative" (NEFI) and began development of its Programmatic White Paper (in preparation at the time of this abstract submission). The NEFI research foci emerged in discussions within the NEESPI community during the past 12 months. Presentation will provide justification of these foci and approach examples addressing them. The societal challenges, particularly the socio-economic challenges are the top priority in most of them. .

Environmental and economic comparisons of the satellite power system and six alternative energy technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitfield, R. G.; Habegger, L. J.; Levine, E. P.; Tanzman, E.

1981-04-01

The satellite power system (SPS) was compared with alternative systems on life cycle cost and environmental impacts. Environmental and economic effects are evaluated and subdivided into the following issue areas: human health and safety, environmental welfare, resources (land, materials, energy, water, labor), macroeconomics, socioeconomics, and institutional. These evaluations are based on technology characterization data and alternative futures scenarios, developed as part of CDEP. The technologies and the scenarios are described. The cost and performance of the SPS and the alternative technologies provide the basis of the macroeconomic analyses.

Updating the Theoretical Content of Teacher Preparation Pertaining to Educational Subjects: Some Recent Developments in Estonia. Reprints and Miniprints No. 754.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krull, Edgar

Fifty years of Soviet occupation in Estonia has damaged social and economic life. One issue for further development of Estonian society is the need to reform teacher education programs. This paper outlines some of the main problems concerning the content of theoretical preparation of future teachers in educational subjects at Tartu University…

Unfinished Business: Continued Investment in Child Care and Early Education is Critical to Business and America's Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Committee for Economic Development, 2012

2012-01-01

The Committee for Economic Development (CED) has a decades-old commitment to quality early childhood education. CED Trustees have always been in the forefront of the effort to promote early learning and development for all children. Over recent years, the case for investment in the early years of childhood has become stronger and more urgent.…

Accomplishments of Long-Term Research and Development

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Jordy, George Y.

1988-07-01

Technological breakthroughs cannot be penciled on the calendar in advance. The rate of new technological discovery, while highly uncertain, depends on a base of knowledge acquired earlier. In the economic environment of 1980, progress in basic research, which builds the technology base that will underpin future energy development by Government and industry, was being slowed as cost increases due to inflation grew faster than funding increase.

Overview of Issues and Notes for Discussion. Intergovernmental Conference on Policies for Higher Education in the 1980s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

Based on the 1981 conference on policies for higher education of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, recent trends in higher education and prospects for the future are considered, along with approaches to guide the development of policies during the decade. The chief areas of concern are as follows: access to higher…

National forests on the edge: development pressures on America's national forests and grasslands.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Eric M. White; Sara J. Comas; Mary Carr; Mike Eley; Kelly Elverum; Mike O' Donnell; David M. Theobald; Ken Cordell; Jonathan Haber; Theodore W. Beauvais

2007-01-01

Many of America’s national forests and grasslands—collectively called the National Forest System—face increased risks and alterations from escalating housing development on private rural lands along their boundaries. National forests and grasslands provide critical social, ecological, and economic benefits to the American public. This study projects future housing...

Economic Incentives for Cybersecurity: Using Economics to Design Technologies Ready for Deployment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vishik, Claire; Sheldon, Frederick T; Ott, David

Cybersecurity practice lags behind cyber technology achievements. Solutions designed to address many problems may and do exist but frequently cannot be broadly deployed due to economic constraints. Whereas security economics focuses on the cost/benefit analysis and supply/demand, we believe that more sophisticated theoretical approaches, such as economic modeling, rarely utilized, would derive greater societal benefits. Unfortunately, today technologists pursuing interesting and elegant solutions have little knowledge of the feasibility for broad deployment of their results and cannot anticipate the influences of other technologies, existing infrastructure, and technology evolution, nor bring the solutions lifecycle into the equation. Additionally, potentially viable solutionsmore » are not adopted because the risk perceptions by potential providers and users far outweighs the economic incentives to support introduction/adoption of new best practices and technologies that are not well enough defined. In some cases, there is no alignment with redominant and future business models as well as regulatory and policy requirements. This paper provides an overview of the economics of security, reviewing work that helped to define economic models for the Internet economy from the 1990s. We bring forward examples of potential use of theoretical economics in defining metrics for emerging technology areas, positioning infrastructure investment, and building real-time response capability as part of software development. These diverse examples help us understand the gaps in current research. Filling these gaps will be instrumental for defining viable economic incentives, economic policies, regulations as well as early-stage technology development approaches, that can speed up commercialization and deployment of new technologies in cybersecurity.« less

Perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; Schaffhauser, A.

1994-04-01

This report offers perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry. These perspectives will be used in further research to assess the prospects for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). The perspectives are developed first by examining economic, political and regulatory, societal, technological, and environmental trends that are (1) national and global in scope and (2) directly related to the electric utility industry. Major national and global trends include increasing global economic competition, increasing political and ethnic strife, rapidly changing technologies, and increasing worldwide concern about the environment. Major trends in the utility industry include increasing competition in generation; changing patternsmore » of electricity demand; increasing use of information technology to control power systems; and increasing implementation of environmental controls. Ways in which the national and global trends may directly affect the utility industry are also explored. The trends are used to construct three global and national scenarios- ``business as usual,`` ``technotopia future,`` and ``fortress state`` -and three electric utility scenarios- ``frozen in headlights,`` ``megaelectric,`` and ``discomania.`` The scenarios are designed to be thought provoking descriptions of potential futures, not predictions of the future, although three key variables are identified that will have significant impacts on which future evolves-global climate change, utility technologies, and competition. While emphasis needs to be placed on understanding the electric utility scenarios, the interactions between the two sets of scenarios is also of interest.« less

Metro nature, environmental health, and economic value.

PubMed

Wolf, Kathleen L; Robbins, Alicia S T

2015-05-01

Nearly 40 years of research provides an extensive body of evidence about human health, well-being, and improved function benefits associated with experiences of nearby nature in cities. We demonstrate the numerous opportunities for future research efforts that link metro nature, human health and well-being outcomes, and economic values. We reviewed the literature on urban nature-based health and well-being benefits. In this review, we provide a classification schematic and propose potential economic values associated with metro nature services. Economic valuation of benefits derived from urban green systems has largely been undertaken in the fields of environmental and natural resource economics, but studies have not typically addressed health outcomes. Urban trees, parks, gardens, open spaces, and other nearby nature elements-collectively termed metro nature-generate many positive externalities that have been largely overlooked in urban economics and policy. Here, we present a range of health benefits, including benefit context and beneficiaries. Although the understanding of these benefits is not yet consistently expressed, and although it is likely that attempts to link urban ecosystem services and economic values will not include all expressions of cultural or social value, the development of new interdisciplinary approaches that integrate environmental health and economic disciplines are greatly needed. Metro nature provides diverse and substantial benefits to human populations in cities. In this review, we begin to address the need for development of valuation methodologies and new approaches to understanding the potential economic outcomes of these benefits.

Economic study of future aircraft fuels (1970-2000)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, A. D., III

1972-01-01

Future aircraft fuels are evaluated in terms of fuel resource availability and pricing, processing methods, and economic projections over the period 1970-2000. Liquefied hydrogen, methane and propane are examined as potential turbine engine aircraft fuels relative to current JP fuel.

Ho Chi Minh City adaptation to increasing risk of coastal and fluvial floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scussolini, Paolo; Lasage, Ralph

2016-04-01

Coastal megacities in southeast Asia are a hotspot of vulnerability to floods. In such contexts, the combination of fast socio-economic development and of climate change impacts on precipitation and sea level generates concerns about the flood damage to people and assets. This work focuses on Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, for which we estimate the present and future direct risk from river and coastal floods. A model cascade is used that comprises the Saigon river basin and the urban network, plus the land-use-dependent damaging process. Changes in discharge for five return periods are simulated, enabling the probabilistic calculation of the expected annual economic damage to assets, for differnt scenarios of global emissions, local socio-economic growth, and land subsidence, up to year 2100. The implementation of a range of adaptation strategies is simulated, including building dykes, elevating, creating reservoirs, managing water and sediment upstream, flood-proofing, halting groundwater abstraction. Results are presented on 1) the relative weight of each future driver in determining the flood risk of Ho Chi Minh, and 2) the efficiency and feasibility of each adaptation strategy.

Revealing driving factors of China's PM2.5 pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Zhao, H.; Zhang, Q.; Geng, G.; Tong, D.; Peng, L.; He, K.

2017-12-01

China's rapid economic development and intensive energy consumption are deteriorating the air quality significantly. Understanding the key driving factors behind China's growing emissions of air pollutants and the accompanying PM2.5 pollution is critical for the development of China's clean air policies and also provides insight into how other emerging economies may develop a clear sky future. Here we reveal the socioeconomic drivers of the variations of China's PM2.5 concentrations during 2002-2012 by using an interdisciplinary framework that integrates an emission inventory model, an index decomposition analysis model, and a regional air quality model. The decomposition results demostrate that the improvements in emission efficiency and energy efficiency failed to offset the increased emissions of both primary PM2.5 and gaseous PM2.5 precursors (including SO2 NOx, and volatile organic compounds) triggered by the surging economic growth during 2002-2012. During the same time, the effects of energy structure, production structure and population growth were relatively less significant to all pollutants, which indicates the potential of large emission abatements through energy structure and production structure adjustment. Sensitivity simulations by the air quality model based on the provincial decomposition results also show that the economic growth have outpaced efficiency improvements in the increments of PM2.5 concentrations during the study years. As China continues to develop rapidly, future policies should promote further improvements in efficiency and accelerate the adjustments toward clean energy and production structures, which are critical for reducing China's emissions and alleviating the severe PM2.5 pollution.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. This methodology was then expanded and utilized to characterize the changing hydrology on the South Platte River Basin. Future urban growth is represented by housingdensity maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and describe a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as anapproach to evaluate basin‐wide impacts of development on water‐quantity and ‐quality, 2) present initial results from the application of the methodology to

Bristol girls dance project feasibility study: using a pilot economic evaluation to inform design of a full trial

PubMed Central

Powell, Jane E; Carroll, Fran E; Sebire, Simon J; Haase, Anne M; Jago, Russell

2013-01-01

Background There is currently little guidance for pilot trial economic evaluation where health outcomes and costs are influenced by a range of wider determinants and factors. Objectives This article presents the findings of a pilot economic evaluation study running alongside the Bristol Girls Dance Project (BGDP) feasibility study. Design 3-arm, cluster randomised, controlled pilot trial and economic evaluation. 7 schools (n=210) from the Bristol and greater Bristol area, UK were randomly allocated to the intervention arm 3 schools (n=90) and the control arm 4 schools (n=120). Intervention Girls aged 11–12 years with parental consent were provided with two, 90 min dance sessions per week for 9 weeks at school facilities. Economic outcome measures Programme costs and girls’ preferences for attributes of dance and preferences for competing leisure time activities were measured. Results The mainstream average cost of the BGDP programme (not including research, control and dance teacher training costs) per school was $2126.40, £1329 and €1555 and per participant was $70.90, £44.31 and €51.84 in 2010–2011 prices. Discrete choice experiment (DCE) methods are acceptable to girls of this age indicating time available for other leisure activities on dance class days is the attribute girls valued most and 2 h leisure time remaining preferred to 3 h. Conclusions This pilot study indicates that providing full cost data for a future trial of the BGDP programme is feasible and practical. There is no evidence from preference data to support adjustment to intervention design. A future economic evaluation is likely to be successful utilising the resource use checklist developed. The importance of categorising separately resources used to develop, prepare, deliver and maintain the programme to estimate mainstream costs accurately is demonstrated. PMID:24362013

Development of a decision aid for energy resource management for the Navajo Nation incorporating environmental cultural values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Necefer, Len Edward

Decision-making surrounding pathways of future energy resource management are complexity and requires balancing tradeoffs of multiple environmental, social, economic, and technical outcomes. Technical decision aid can provide a framework for informed decision making, allowing individuals to better understand the tradeoff between resources, technology, energy services, and prices. While technical decision aid have made significant advances in evaluating these quantitative aspects of energy planning and performance, they have not been designed to incorporate human factors, such as preferences and behavior that are informed by cultural values. Incorporating cultural values into decision tools can provide not only an improved decision framework for the Navajo Nation, but also generate new insights on how these perspective can improve decision making on energy resources. Ensuring these aids are a cultural fit for each context has the potential to increase trust and promote understanding of the tradeoffs involved in energy resource management. In this dissertation I present the development of a technical tool that explicitly addresses cultural and spiritual values and experimentally assesses their influence on the preferences and decision making of Navajo citizens. Chapter 2 describes the results of a public elicitation effort to gather information about stakeholder views and concerns related to energy development in the Navajo Nation in order to develop a larger sample survey and a decision-support tool that links techno-economic energy models with sociocultural attributes. Chapter 3 details the methods of developing the energy decision aid and its underlying assumptions for alternative energy projects and their impacts. This tool also provides an alternative to economic valuation of cultural impacts based upon an ordinal index tied to environmental impacts. Chapter 4 details the the influence of various cultural, environmental, and economic outcome information provided through the developed decision aid on beliefs and preferences related to the type and scale of energy development, trust of decision makers, and larger concern for environmental protection. Finally, chapter 5 presents concluding thoughts future research and on how technical-social decision tools can provide a means ensuring effective decision making on the Navajo Nation and other American Indian communities.

Future costs in cost effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Robert H

2008-07-01

This paper resolves several controversies in CEA. Generalizing [Garber, A.M., Phelps, C.E., 1997. Economic foundations of cost-effectiveness analysis. Journal of Health Economics 16 (1), 1-31], the paper shows accounting for unrelated future costs distorts decision making. After replicating [Meltzer, D., 1997. Accounting for future costs in medical cost-effectiveness analysis. Journal of Health Economics 16 (1), 33-64] quite different conclusion that unrelated future costs should be included in CEA, the paper shows that Meltzer's findings result from modeling the budget constraint as an annuity, which is problematic. The paper also shows that related costs should be included in CEA. This holds for a variety of models, including a health maximization model. CEA should treat costs in the manner recommended by Garber and Phelps.

Relationship between air quality and economic development in the provincial capital cities of China.

PubMed

Chen, Nengcheng; Xu, Lei

2017-01-01

Air pollution in China has become increasingly severe with rapid economic growth in recent years. We analyzed the relationship between the gross regional product (GRP) per capita and the Integrated Air Pollution Index (IAPI) in all the provincial capital cities in China from 2003 to 2014 and clustered them into six urban development patterns. These patterns are as follows: inverse U-shaped, N-1-shaped, N-2-shaped, U-shaped, linear decline, and stable. The majority of the provincial capitals are N-1, N-2, and U types, suggesting that the air quality is deteriorating currently or will deteriorate in the future. Meteorological conditions and industrial structure are taken into consideration when testing the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis between the economy and air pollutant concentration. Results show that there exists no direct relationship between three main pollutants and GRP per capita, while an inverse U-shaped relationship with the secondary industry and a U-shaped relationship with the tertiary industry. These results will be a meaningful reference for policy makers to develop policies that coordinate the environmental protection and economic development.

The building blocks of economic complexity

PubMed Central

Hidalgo, César A.; Hausmann, Ricardo

2009-01-01

For Adam Smith, wealth was related to the division of labor. As people and firms specialize in different activities, economic efficiency increases, suggesting that development is associated with an increase in the number of individual activities and with the complexity that emerges from the interactions between them. Here we develop a view of economic growth and development that gives a central role to the complexity of a country's economy by interpreting trade data as a bipartite network in which countries are connected to the products they export, and show that it is possible to quantify the complexity of a country's economy by characterizing the structure of this network. Furthermore, we show that the measures of complexity we derive are correlated with a country's level of income, and that deviations from this relationship are predictive of future growth. This suggests that countries tend to converge to the level of income dictated by the complexity of their productive structures, indicating that development efforts should focus on generating the conditions that would allow complexity to emerge to generate sustained growth and prosperity. PMID:19549871

Globalization and Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bencze, J. Lawrence; Carter, Lyn; Chiu, Mei-Hung; Duit, Reinders; Martin, Sonya; Siry, Christina; Krajcik, Joseph; Shin, Namsoo; Choi, Kyunghee; Lee, Hyunju; Kim, Sung-Won

2013-06-01

Processes of globalization have played a major role in economic and cultural change worldwide. More recently, there is a growing literature on rethinking science education research and development from the perspective of globalization. This paper provides a critical overview of the state and future development of science education research from the perspective of globalization. Two facets are given major attention. First, the further development of science education as an international research domain is critically analyzed. It seems that there is a predominance of researchers stemming from countries in which English is the native language or at least a major working language. Second, the significance of rethinking the currently dominant variants of science instruction from the perspectives of economic and cultural globalization is given major attention. On the one hand, it is argued that processes concerning globalization of science education as a research domain need to take into account the richness of the different cultures of science education around the world. At the same time, it is essential to develop ways of science instruction that make students aware of the various advantages, challenges and problems of international economic and cultural globalization.

Globalization and Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bencze, J. Lawrence; Carter, Lyn; Chiu, Mei-Hung; Duit, Reinders; Martin, Sonya; Siry, Christina; Krajcik, Joseph; Shin, Namsoo; Choi, Kyunghee; Lee, Hyunju; Kim, Sung-Won

2012-12-01

Processes of globalization have played a major role in economic and cultural change worldwide. More recently, there is a growing literature on rethinking science education research and development from the perspective of globalization. This paper provides a critical overview of the state and future development of science education research from the perspective of globalization. Two facets are given major attention. First, the further development of science education as an international research domain is critically analyzed. It seems that there is a predominance of researchers stemming from countries in which English is the native language or at least a major working language. Second, the significance of rethinking the currently dominant variants of science instruction from the perspectives of economic and cultural globalization is given major attention. On the one hand, it is argued that processes concerning globalization of science education as a research domain need to take into account the richness of the different cultures of science education around the world. At the same time, it is essential to develop ways of science instruction that make students aware of the various advantages, challenges and problems of international economic and cultural globalization.

Buildings of the Future Scoping Study: A Framework for Vision Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Na; Goins, John D.

2015-02-01

The Buildings of the Future Scoping Study, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office, seeks to develop a vision for what U.S. mainstream commercial and residential buildings could become in 100 years. This effort is not intended to predict the future or develop a specific building design solution. Rather, it will explore future building attributes and offer possible pathways of future development. Whether we achieve a more sustainable built environment depends not just on technologies themselves, but on how effectively we envision the future and integrate these technologies in a balanced way that generates economic, social,more » and environmental value. A clear, compelling vision of future buildings will attract the right strategies, inspire innovation, and motivate action. This project will create a cross-disciplinary forum of thought leaders to share their views. The collective views will be integrated into a future building vision and published in September 2015. This report presents a research framework for the vision development effort based on a literature survey and gap analysis. This document has four objectives. First, it defines the project scope. Next, it identifies gaps in the existing visions and goals for buildings and discusses the possible reasons why some visions did not work out as hoped. Third, it proposes a framework to address those gaps in the vision development. Finally, it presents a plan for a series of panel discussions and interviews to explore a vision that mitigates problems with past building paradigms while addressing key areas that will affect buildings going forward.« less

The impact of oil revenues on Arab Gulf development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El Azhary, M.S.

1984-01-01

This book presents papers on Middle East oil policy. Topics considered include oil production policies in the Gulf States, oil planning, the philosophy of state development planning, prospects for Gulf economic coordination, the philosophy of infrastructural development, industrialization in the Arab Gulf, the agricultural potential of the Arab Gulf states, the future of banking as a Gulf industry, manpower problems and projections in the Gulf, education as an instrument of progress in the Arab Gulf states, and the impact of development on Gulf society.

Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity.

PubMed

Dunford, R; Harrison, P A; Jäger, J; Rounsevell, M D A; Tinch, R

Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures.

The role of energy systems on hydropower in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuksel, Ibrahim; Arman, Hasan; Halil Demirel, Ibrahim

2017-11-01

Over the last two decades, global electricity production has more than doubled and electricity demand is rising rapidly around the world as economic development spreads to emerging economies. Not only has electricity demand increased significantly, it is the fastest growing end-use of energy. Therefore, technical, economic and environmental benefits of hydroelectric power make it an important contributor to the future world energy mix, particularly in the developing countries. On the other hand, the hydropower industry is closely linked to both water management and renewable energy production, and so has a unique role to play in contributing to sustainable development in a world where billions of people lack access to safe drinking water and adequate energy supplies. In addition to, approximately 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity and about 1.1 billion are without adequate water supply. However, resources for hydropower development are widely spread around the world. Potential exists in about 150 countries, and about 70% of the economically feasible potential remains to be developed-mostly in developing countries where the needs are most urgent. This paper deals with renewable energy systems and the role of hydropower in Turkey.

New York State technical economic MAGLEV evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-06-01

The Energy Authority, the New York State Departments of Transportation, Economic Development, Environmental Conservation and the New York State Thruway Authority sponsored an evaluation of high-speed surface transit options for New York State. This study is the preliminary evaluation of magnetically levitated ground transportation systems (MAGLEV). The evaluation focuses on using the New York State Thruway right-of-way in combination with MAGLEV systems currently in development in Germany and Japan and those proposed for development in the United States. The Energy Authority's goal in cosponsoring this study was to determine if MAGLEV offered the potential to meet future New York Statemore » transportation demands cost-effectively, and to evaluate the benefits that the State might expect from supporting MAGLEV technology development and system implementation. According to the preliminary report, substantial economic benefits could accrue to the State through MAGLEV-related research, development, manufacturing and construction. Implementation would have a favorable impact on issues related to transportation, the environment and energy conservation. With the exception of the German Transrapid system, developing a domestic prototype MAGLEV vehicle would take seven to nine years; no insurmountable technical barriers are apparent. EMF shielding (electromagnetic fields) is, however a concern. 39 refs., 71 figs., 26 tabs.« less

Global health funding and economic development.

PubMed

Martin, Greg; Grant, Alexandra; D'Agostino, Mark

2012-04-10

The impact of increased national wealth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), on public health is widely understood, however an equally important but less well-acclaimed relationship exists between improvements in health and the growth of an economy. Communicable diseases such as HIV, TB, Malaria and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) are impacting many of the world's poorest and most vulnerable populations, and depressing economic development. Sickness and disease has decreased the size and capabilities of the workforce through impeding access to education and suppressing foreign direct investment (FDI). There is clear evidence that by investing in health improvements a significant increase in GDP per capita can be attained in four ways: Firstly, healthier populations are more economically productive; secondly, proactive healthcare leads to decrease in many of the additive healthcare costs associated with lack of care (treating opportunistic infections in the case of HIV for example); thirdly, improved health represents a real economic and developmental outcome in-and-of itself and finally, healthcare spending capitalises on the Keynesian 'economic multiplier' effect. Continued under-investment in health and health systems represent an important threat to our future global prosperity. This editorial calls for a recognition of health as a major engine of economic growth and for commensurate investment in public health, particularly in poor countries.

Global health funding and economic development

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

The impact of increased national wealth, as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), on public health is widely understood, however an equally important but less well-acclaimed relationship exists between improvements in health and the growth of an economy. Communicable diseases such as HIV, TB, Malaria and the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) are impacting many of the world's poorest and most vulnerable populations, and depressing economic development. Sickness and disease has decreased the size and capabilities of the workforce through impeding access to education and suppressing foreign direct investment (FDI). There is clear evidence that by investing in health improvements a significant increase in GDP per capita can be attained in four ways: Firstly, healthier populations are more economically productive; secondly, proactive healthcare leads to decrease in many of the additive healthcare costs associated with lack of care (treating opportunistic infections in the case of HIV for example); thirdly, improved health represents a real economic and developmental outcome in-and-of itself and finally, healthcare spending capitalises on the Keynesian 'economic multiplier' effect. Continued under-investment in health and health systems represent an important threat to our future global prosperity. This editorial calls for a recognition of health as a major engine of economic growth and for commensurate investment in public health, particularly in poor countries. PMID:22490207

Sustainability development platform for nuclear–renewable energy integration: Environmental impacts, economics, and socio-political implications

DOE PAGES

Bolden, Lauren; Sabharwall, Piyush; Bragg-Sitton, Shannon; ...

2015-01-01

Global energy needs are primarily being met with fossil fuel plants in both developed and developing nations. Although it is unlikely to entirely replace fossil fuel systems, the incorporation of alternative energy systems that produce fewer emissions and utilize fewer resources may prove useful in furthering sustainable energy practices. Nuclear and Renewable Energy Integration (NREI) represents one potential, alternative system and is comprised of both nuclear and renewable technologies coupled with energy storage and industrial process heat applications. This article reviews the fundamentals of sustainability and its drivers, defines the necessary scope for analyzing energy systems, details widely used sustainabilitymore » metrics, and assesses sustainability through the sustainability efficiency factor (SEF) based on the core pillars of economy, environment, and society—all of which aim to promote future sustainable development. The assessment is performed for an NREI system comprised of a small modular reactor (SMR), where a portion of the heat generated is utilized for hydrogen production through high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). The global warming potential for NREI is compared to the typical emissions observed for hydrogen production via steam methane reforming and are estimated to yield 92.6% fewer grams of CO 2-equivalent per kilogram of hydrogen produced. Furthermore, the calculated SEF for NREI is 22.2% higher than steam methane reforming. Because SMR designs are at varying design, developmental, and deployment stages, a method of estimating economics is presented to demonstrate the differences observed between first-of-a-kind (FOAK) and nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) units, as well as the resulting total capital investment cost. Lastly, a comprehensive list of considerations necessary for future energy system development was enumerated based on four core assessment areas: technical feasibility, environmental impact, economic feasibility and impact, and socio-political impacts.« less

Sustainability development platform for nuclear–renewable energy integration: Environmental impacts, economics, and socio-political implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolden, Lauren; Sabharwall, Piyush; Bragg-Sitton, Shannon

Global energy needs are primarily being met with fossil fuel plants in both developed and developing nations. Although it is unlikely to entirely replace fossil fuel systems, the incorporation of alternative energy systems that produce fewer emissions and utilize fewer resources may prove useful in furthering sustainable energy practices. Nuclear and Renewable Energy Integration (NREI) represents one potential, alternative system and is comprised of both nuclear and renewable technologies coupled with energy storage and industrial process heat applications. This article reviews the fundamentals of sustainability and its drivers, defines the necessary scope for analyzing energy systems, details widely used sustainabilitymore » metrics, and assesses sustainability through the sustainability efficiency factor (SEF) based on the core pillars of economy, environment, and society—all of which aim to promote future sustainable development. The assessment is performed for an NREI system comprised of a small modular reactor (SMR), where a portion of the heat generated is utilized for hydrogen production through high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). The global warming potential for NREI is compared to the typical emissions observed for hydrogen production via steam methane reforming and are estimated to yield 92.6% fewer grams of CO 2-equivalent per kilogram of hydrogen produced. Furthermore, the calculated SEF for NREI is 22.2% higher than steam methane reforming. Because SMR designs are at varying design, developmental, and deployment stages, a method of estimating economics is presented to demonstrate the differences observed between first-of-a-kind (FOAK) and nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) units, as well as the resulting total capital investment cost. Lastly, a comprehensive list of considerations necessary for future energy system development was enumerated based on four core assessment areas: technical feasibility, environmental impact, economic feasibility and impact, and socio-political impacts.« less